A study by a Wayne State University and Children’s Hospital of Michigan, Detroit Medical Center research team is shedding new light on the troubling question of whether the drugs often given to HIV-positive pregnant women can cause significant long-term heart problems for the non-HIV-infected babies they carry.

The study recently published in the journal AIDS shows that while the HIV medications have been successful in helping to prevent the transmission of the virus from mother to infant, they are associated with persistently impaired development of heart muscle and reduced heart performance in non-HIV-infected children whose mothers received the medicines years earlier.

“What our study indicates is that there’s potentially a long-term price to be paid for protecting the children of HIV-infected mothers from the virus,” said Steven E. Lipshultz, M.D., pediatrician-in-chief at the Children’s Hospital of Michigan and chair of pediatrics for the Wayne State University School of Medicine. Dr. Lipshultz is a specialist in the study of long-term toxic cardiac effects among children affected by cancer and HIV drug therapies.

“These medicines have been very effective at reducing the rate of transmission of HIV from mother to child,” added Dr. Lipshultz, the lead author of the study, “but the findings we’ve just published show clearly that further investigation of their long-term impact on the heart health of the children involved is needed.

“Thanks to the new anti-HIV medications, the rate of transmission has been lowered from 26 percent to less than 1 percent during the past few decades, and that has been a miracle of life for the children involved. Still, we don’t want to be protecting these children from one disease, only to give them another one.”

The study compared heart development and long-term heart functioning in 428 uninfected children of HIV-infected mothers to children who had not been exposed to HIV from 2007 to 2012. The results pointed to a significant association between lagging heart muscle development and impaired pumping ability in the children of the HIV-infected mothers who had received the medications.

“These findings clearly indicate the need for further study,” said Dr. Lipshultz, while pointing to one of the study’s key conclusions: “Subclinical differences in left ventricular structure and function with specific in-utero antiviral exposures indicate the need for a longitudinal study to assess long-term cardiac risk and cardiac monitoring recommendations.”

Dr. Lipshultz, a nationally recognized expert on pediatric cardiac care who 20 years ago led the effort to found the nation’s only registry of pediatric cardiomyopathy, said the study is a “compelling example of how clinical research can be effective in helping to shed light on complex problems in pediatric health care.”

The Children’s Research Center of Michigan team, located at the Children’s Hospital of Michigan, involved with this National Institutes of Health-supported multicenter study includes James Wilkinson, M.D., associate director of the center and professor of pediatrics, and research assistant Joslyn Westphal, M.P.H.

Dr. Wilkinson stressed the study “raises the question of how much do we know about the long-term safety of drugs given to children?” He is concerned that “pediatric drug studies remain particularly limited. The lack of information about the long-term safety of drugs prescribed for children is a special worry, both for drugs that may be used for decades for chronic conditions and for drugs for which short-term use may be found to harm children’s growth and development months or years later. Although these are effective medicines for children, in order to understand their safety, long-term pediatric safety studies are needed to potentially allow future options for improvement if serious safety risks are identified.”

“At the end of the day, our goal at the Children’s Hospital of Michigan is to provide the very best possible care for our patients,” Dr. Lipshultz said. “Studies like this one are crucially important for meeting that challenge.”

The PHACS (Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Study) is the largest US government study of pediatric HIV and AIDS with over 30 centers. It is a trans-National Institutes of Health study with 10 NIH institutes and centers participating and funding PHACS. Since PHACS’s inception more than a decade ago, Dr. Lipshultz has been the NIH-funded cardiology leader of PHACS, a member of its scientific leadership group, and the inaugural and only chair of the NIH PHACS Cardiovascular Task Force, the group which led this study.

The post Research Shows Anti-HIV Medicines Can Cause Damage To Fetal Hearts appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Saudi Arabia will receive Black Hawk and Apache military helicopters from the US earlier next year to bolster National Guard forces, said visiting National Guard Minister Prince Miteb bin Abdullah after talks with Pentagon officials.

“Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah seeks to modernize and develop the military systems of all armed forces, including the National Guard,” the minister told reporters after meeting US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel.

Specialized technical committees have been set up to study the requirements of Saudi armed forces including the National Guard, he said.

Prince Miteb said Saudi officers have been trained to pilot the newly purchased Black Hawk and Apache helicopters. “We have already received training planes,” he added.

He said he had discussed with President Barack Obama and other US officials the ways of strengthening bilateral cooperation in various sectors, especially between the Defense Department and the Saudi National Guard.

Prince Miteb stressed the National Guard’s efforts to make continuous development and acquire advanced military equipment.

“National Guard plays two important roles — military and defense role with the Defense Ministry, and military and security role with the Interior Ministry.”

He said Saudi Arabia being a member of the coalition force would play an effective role in the fight against ISIS. “We have a strategic alliance with the US and we work together in the fight against terrorism and extremism,” he said.

Speaking about the Syrian crisis, Prince Miteb said Bashar Assad would not have any place in future Syria.

The post US To Send Saudi Arabia Apache, Black Hawk Helicopters appeared first on Eurasia Review.

I recently received a question, asking whether the US can lead over the EU in improving relations with Russia?

From the Cold War period, Britain’s Margaret Thatcher and American author Suzanne Massie, are credited with influencing Ronald Reagan, to seize upon the existence of an opportunity for improving East-West relations. In the post-Soviet era, reasoned individuals in Western Europe and the US offer hope for moving the US to a less confrontational (and dare I say saner) attitude towards Russia. (Gilbert Doctorow’s November 20 Russia Insider commentary “Top US Foreign Policy Experts Increasingly Disagree with White House on Russia“ relates to this thought.)

For a variety of reasons, Western Europe is more likely than the US to spearhead an improvement in Russia-West relations. To an extent, this is already evident (with the understanding that the EU nations aren’t monolithic). Last week, the EU decided to not increase sanctions against Russia. The EU and Russia have greater trade relations, when compared to America and Russia. (From a counter neocon/neolib perspective, Finian Cunningham’s November 20 Strategic Culture Foundation article “Europe Veering From US Abyss Over Russia?” delves into this subject.)

In terms of understanding international issues, it has been said that the US is geographically prone to being comparatively aloof than some others. The US hasn’t had the level of major powers on and/or near its borders as some other nations, including Russia. America’s decades long economic and military prowess, has served to discourage the art of compromise, in favor of a my way or the highway approach to resolving global differences.

In contrast, smaller nations with less might can’t as easily afford to make stupid mistakes. This last observation can get challenged, when such countries feel that they’ve the backing of a major power – a pointed shot at the NATO/EU affiliated Baltic states (particularly Lithuania and Estonia), whose tragic past shouldn’t be carte blanche for pursuing overly headstrong agendas, as evidenced by their rhetorical posturing, on the complex situation in the former Ukrainian SSR. For their part, larger nations allied to smaller countries (whether nominally or otherwise) should be careful to not automatically assume that the smaller nation is always so right in a dispute with a larger neighbor.

At present, NATO/EU members Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia don’t appear to be so willing as some others to pursue a confrontational stance towards Russia. Public opinion surveys in some major Western nations (including Germany and the US) suggestively challenge the notion that Russia poses a great threat. A predominating bias to the contrary exists within the higher levels of North American mass media, body politic and academia.

Some recent examples include Fareed Zakaria’s opening comments about Russia, on his November 16 CNN show and a November 5 Munk debate on Barack Obama’s foreign policy (aired on CSPAN), which pitted Zakaria and Anne-Marie Slaughter against Robert Kagan and Bret Stephens. That kind of point-counterpoint dialogue relates to a November 15 aired CNN segment, where that network’s Senior White House Correspondent, Jim Acosta, said that “the world” gave Vladimir Putin a “cold shoulder” at the G-20 gathering in Brisbane. Acosta proceeded to mention the leaders of the US, Canada, UK and Australia. Acosta didn’t mention the Indian, Chinese, Brazilian, South African and other G-20 participants, who didn’t cold shoulder Putin at that forum.

Clearly, the world is much more diverse than what’s presented in the circumstances regarding Munk and CNN’s Acosta and Zakaria, as well as many of their peers at Western mass media TV networks. The reality is that these sources continue to have a considerable reach in North America.

RT is ironically accused of being biased in offering some valid perspectives, which tend to get downplayed in Western mass media. The November 12 RT CrossTalk show on the Berlin Wall and the “new Cold War”, expressed thoughts which I noted in several 1990s era replies to Alexander Kwasniewski, William Safire, Thomas Friedman and Anthony Lewis, when The New York Times Op-Ed section had greater influence than the contemporary era of numerous online options:

“NATO Still Divides“, March 16, 1999

“Why Russia Worries About NATO Expansion“, January 20, 1995

“Central Europe Still Feels Wary of Russia; The Bullied Bear“, May 15, 1995

“Through Bosnian Smoke, Russians and Serbs Turn to the West“, March 8, 1994

Looking back, some golden opportunities were missed at improving Russia-West relations, as a result of the faulty overview that was evident throughout much of the Western political establishment’s liberal-conservative divide – at a time when Russia wasn’t seen as great a threat.

In the long run, there’s a decent to good chance of seeing noticeably improved Russia-West relations. Though remaining a powerful presence, America is reasonably predicted by some (including Zbigniew Brzezinski) to have less global influence in the foreseeable future – a process that has arguably started. Among American foreign policy elites, more time is perhaps needed, to redirect away from the dubious stances taken against Russia.

One current stumbling block is the advocacy for existing Western sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, with the threat of increased measures, versus the official Russian view that the sanctions have limits in a globalized economy, which the Kremlin will be able to successfully manage. Russia will probably not change its position on Crimea. In the Lugansk and Donetsk areas, violence persists, with the chance for further escalation. Practically speaking, a grudging official to unofficial acceptance by the West of Crimea’s status with Russia, could be part of a settlement that sees the Donetsk and Lugansk areas having considerable autonomy within Ukraine.

There’re other present and possible future trigger points, which challenge improved Russia-West relations. The “New Cold War” term, typically includes a follow-up acknowledgement that the original “Cold War” was far more intense. That point serves as a cautious basis, for believing that the existing and (any) future differences can be reasonably managed among the global powers.

This article was published at Global Research and is reprinted with permission.

The post The Past, Present And Future Of Russia-West Relations – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

In less than one year crude oil prices have come down by more than 30 percent and it is expected that the downward trend will continue for a while. The United States, having emerged as the largest producer of oil, does not seem in a mode to curtail its oil production. Smaller oil producing member countries of OPEC are proposing to cut daily production and all eyes are set at forthcoming OPEC meeting. While non-oil producing countries are more than happy with the reduction in price, it seems both the United States and Saudi Arabia want to show the world that one of them controls oil prices. The question is, however, who is the one controlling the prices?

I have stated previously that many wondered why Saudi Arabia has been supporting the United States in keeping oil prices high. My perception is that since the United States was working on shale oil and also wanted to keep Iran from the oil market it lured Saudi Arabia into producing extra oil and thus mobilizing more petro dollars. During this period Arabs were brain-washed and made to believe that Iran was a bigger enemy than compared to Israel. This allowed the United States to sell over US$36 billion in arms to Saudi Arabia in one year. Since then, the United States has refused to fight a proxy Saudi war against Syria and Iran, and the King and his allies were upset. The signing of an interim agreement between the superpowers and Iran further annoyed the Arabs.

Historically, Saudi Arabia has been extending its support to the United States in keeping oil prices high, but this time it is a reduction in production – something the monarchs of the Arabian Peninsula don’t like at all. Instead of carving any mutually acceptable strategy OPEC led by Saudi Arabia is trying to enhance production to maintain its revenue levels. This policy has led to the decline in oil prices, which was certainly not liked by United States. The reason is obvious – Shale oil production in not economically viable below US$80/barrel. Indeed, Saudi Arabia still believes that shale oil production will not remain economically viable if prices decline below US$70.

After attaining the position of largest oil producing country after more than three decades, the United States seems to suffer from the illusion that it has also attained the control to fix prices. To avoid any adverse price movement the United States has not officially removed a ban on oil exports and its stockpiles are at record high. Instead of capping its own production the super power wants OPEC members to cut production of their oil.

There is high probability that OPEC may agree to this proposal to boost its petro dollar income. If this happens it will become too evident that oil producers other than the United States and particularly the Arabs have lost pricing control.

Oil is one of the most geopolitically important commodities. It drives economies around the world and it is located in some usually very volatile places. Currently, US crude production exceeds 9 million barrels a day, the most since at least January 1983. Over the last 10 years, the defining factor in the oil market was the growth of China and Chinese oil demand, but at present the defining factor is the growth of US oil production.

While making attempts to achieve this position, the US has also been able to prove to the world that it remains the sole super power. Some experts say a new age of abundant and cheap energy supplies is redrawing the world’s geopolitical landscape, weakening and potentially threatening the legitimacy of some governments while enhancing the power of others. Surging US oil production enabled the US and its allies to impose tough sanctions on Iran without having to worry much about the loss of imports from the Middle Eastern nation. Now Russia faces a catastrophic slump in prices for its oil as its economy is battered by US and European sanctions over its role in Ukraine.

The first prey of this policy is Russia, which is the second largest producer of energy products outside OPEC. One can still recall that plunging oil prices in the latter half of the 1980s helped pave the way for the breakup of the Soviet Union by robbing it of revenue it needed to survive. Russia again looks likely to suffer from the fallout in oil markets, along with Iran and Venezuela.

The second prey is Saudi Arabia that is trying to prove it still enjoys pricing power. If it succeeds in plunging the price down to $60 or $70 a barrel, there could be a slowdown in the US shale oil production but the world is not going to see it stop.

The factors that can possible reverse the trend are: 1) terrorist attacks on a few oil fields in the volatile Middle East, 2) production cut by OPEC and 3) revival of global demand but neither is likely in the near term.

The third prey is Iran, like Russia its economy has been weakened by economic sanctions due to its nuclear program. The steps by the US and its allies have almost closed Iran’s oil and gas fields to investment over the last decade, limiting the country’s access to technology to boost output. The nation needs to achieve enhance its oil revenue to keep its budget in balance. The decline in crude prices and a Nov. 24 deadline for a nuclear accord are raising pressure on Iranian president elected last year on the promise to end Iran’s isolation and revive growth. If he succeeds in striking a deal and sanctions are lifted and the country is allowed to increase its oil exports, the price may come under further pressure.

Oil producers, other than US have to agree on the bottom price for oil if their governments want to survive. Social turmoil could paradoxically help prop up prices in the short term if output is disrupted, but that may not be the real solution.

The writing on the wall is with increasing energy independence, and as such the US will become less vulnerable to supply disruptions that will also provide added leverage in international negotiations, whether with Iran over its nuclear program or with Russia over its intentions in Ukraine.

The post Winners And Losers Of Oil War – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Extreme weather conditions predicted for the Pacific Ocean pose a significant threat for island states’ industry and infrastructure warns a new advisory note from the United Nations.

Global forecasts indicate the onset of an abnormal warming of surface ocean waters, known as the El Niño effect, as the Pacific region experiences its wet season during the next six months. The resulting changes in climate, which will see both increased and decreased rainfall depending on the exact location, will threaten vulnerable sectors such as agriculture; freshwater resources; reef ecosystems; fisheries; public health; and infrastructure.

The advisory for Pacific Island countries, issued jointly by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) explains that El Nino will be associated with irregular rainfall in the Pacific region, though effects vary across different regions within each country. The northern parts of many countries, especially those with wide geographical coverage, will experience increased rainfall during an El Niño year, while the southern parts receive less.

A reduced wet season rainfall could impact subsistence agriculture the most, causing a loss of cash income and reducing people’s ability to support themselves – particularly in Timor-Leste, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Fiji. Countries that normally have very low dry season rainfall, such as Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea, are put at particular risk of drought-like conditions.
Meanwhile, the likelihood of cyclones and severe storms for the Marshall Islands, the Cook Islands, Tuvalu, Samoa, Niue and Fiji is predicted to increase by 30 per cent as ocean temperatures temporarily increase.

Ms. Shamika Sirimanne, Director of ESCAP’s Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division explained: “Even a weak El Niño event could put Pacific Island countries at high risk. Their location means they are often described as disaster hotspots and their remoteness and economic fragility add to their vulnerability to shocks from even mild deviations in climate”.

To monitor these risks, ESCAP recommends establishing a regional mechanism that helps make pro-active climate information available to support better preparedness and resilient development planning. Strengthening early warning systems and multi-stakeholder platforms for risk communication in this way would facilitate understanding of the long-term risks and harmonization of risk management strategies and development plans of countries in the region.

The post Pacific Island Countries Warned Of High-Risk Of Extreme Weather During Upcoming Wet Season appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Kalinga Seneviratne*

Eminent political analysts, academics and journalists have predicted a promising Asian resurgence in 2015 and called for Asians to learn to look to the Near East for inspiration and not the Far West. They included participants in the annual ‘Global Outlook’ conference organized by Singapore’s Straits Times group on November 21.

“The export-led growth model of the past will no longer work for the major Asian economies,” warned keynote speaker, Professor Kishore Mahbubani, Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy addressing a gathering of over 400 business people, bankers, academics and media practitioners. But he argued that Asia will experience a “new golden era of peace and prosperity” driven by its own burgeoning middle classes and visionary new leaders.

“It is an almost unbelievable accident of history (and) truly remarkable that the three most populous Asian countries, China, India and Indonesia, have simultaneously put in place dynamic and reform-minded leaders who can be expected to transform their countries over the next decade,” said the former Singaporean diplomat. He was referring to President Xi Jingping of China, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Joko Widodo of Indonesia.

“(President Xi Jingping) probably regards himself as the ‘owner of the house’, unlike his predecessors who very much regarded themselves as ‘managers of the house’. Because of that mindset and self-identification, Xi Jingping has the vision and strong desire to transform China,” noted Dr Li Mingjiang, coordinator of the China program at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological Univeisty in Singapore.

“The new leadership is more united, very ambitious and reform minded (that is indicative of the) unprecedented anti-corruption drive in China,” added Dr Mingjiang. “These reforms seen as the ‘new norm’ will lay the foundation for more sustainable economic growth.”

“Modi is a manager of reform. He fixes problems, he attacks issues he sees before him, he is not in the classical market-oriented reform mode,” argued T.N Ninan, chairman of India’s Business Standard newspaper. He pointed out that Modi’s pet projects, smart cities, fast trains and clean (solar) energy, are politically accepted reforms to modernize India and he will not indulge in across the board privatization. “His path to get things done is now being followed by many state leaders,” added Ninnan.

Editor of the Jakarta Post, Endy Bayuni said that Jokowi (as the Indonesian President is popularly known), although very popular with the people, is not necessarily a powerful president because he does not control the parliament. “(But) he will bring changes for sure,” he added. “Most significant is that he has vision and (one of this) is to turn Indonesia into a maritime power (like in the past before European colonialism).”

Bayuni pointed out that within a month of coming to power he has put his welfare program in place with identity and welfare cards for the poor, and he has also spelt out Indonesia’s foreign policy priorities during his recent foreign visits saying that trade deals will depend on what Indonesia gets out of it.

Another keynote speaker at the Forum, Indonesian economist and former Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Dr. Mari Elka Pangestu also argued that the new Asian resurgence would be driven by internalization of trade.

“We tend to look outside our region,” pointed out Dr. Pangestu, who teaches at the University of Indonesia. “Hey guys, ASEAN is where it’s happening, look at all the numbers – if you take ASEAN as one country, we are the seventh economy in the world. If we grow at this (current) rate, we are going to be the fourth.”

ASEAN – the 10 member grouping of South East Asian Nations – is due to become one integrated economic community at the end of 2015. “It means ASEAN economic integration is no longer just about ‘let’s have an economic base so that we can be more competitive to export to outside ASEAN’, but ASEAN itself is now becoming a final market,” argued Dr. Pangestu.

Prof Mahbubhani pointed out that Asia’s middle classes would increase from 500 million in 2010 to 1.75 billion by 2020. He cited the growth in Chinese tourists from almost zero in 1980 to over 100 million today as a typical example of how Asia’s economic growth is being fuelled by regional demand. “Most of these tourists will visit this region and ASEAN economies will benefit,” he noted.

“There is a remarkably wide and deep consensus among regional leaders that they should focus on modernization and pragmatic development,” argued Prof Mahbubhani. “Our region has been infected by a silent, healthy virus of modernization. Because it is silent, Western media has not noticed it and continue to predict gloom.”

Gloom and doom predictions

Many speakers at the Forum referred to the gloom and doom predicted by the Western media at this time last year on a possible conflict in the South China Sea between Japan and China. But they pointed out that silent diplomacy in the region is turning this potential conflict into an area of regional cooperation.

“In 2015 China’s regional security policy will change to the better,” predicted Dr. Mingjiang. “They will become less assertive, more moderate and accommodative. There has been a serious reflection on foreign policy (and) China has realized they need to change regional development policy to improve security.”

The outspoken Singaporean professor, who appears regularly in the international media asked the Asian media not to rely on the “Anglo-Saxon media” such as Britain’s Financial Times and America’s New York Times for its analysis and instead Asia needs to develop its own powerful media houses that could compete with them both regionally and internationally.

Prof Mabubhani argued passionately that Asia badly needs the media that gives a better voice to Asian viewpoints and he cited the American government’s and their media’s “ferocious campaign” against China’s recently announced Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as an example.

“Time has come for Asian newspapers to service Asia,” he argues. “To understand their own futures Asians must believe in themselves and develop new positive global narrative to supplement the dominant negative Western narrative.”

*Dr Kalinga Seneviratne is IDN Special Correspondent for Asia-Pacific. He teaches international communications in Singapore.

The post Asians Told To Look Near East For Prosperity, Not Far West – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Human rights groups and trade unions have stepped up pressure on Qatar to reform its restrictive labour system and expanded their campaign to include all six wealthy members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

The activists hope that Qatar may move quicker on promised reforms given that the integrity of the Gulf state’s successful 2022 World Cup bid has again been called into question as a result of world soccer body FIFA’s four-year long corruption scandal.

They also hope that their increased pressure will benefit from the fact that multiple conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa may make other Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates more sensitive to criticism.

Virtually all members of the GCC — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Oman — have begun to tinker with the their labour laws and regulations as a result of the pressure on Qatar as well as publicity surrounding multiple cases of abuse of workers, including rape and beatings of domestic help. At the same time, they have stepped up crackdowns on domestic critics.

The UAE in response to criticism by human rights groups and trade unions has invested heavily in projecting itself as a forward looking, modern state and key US ally, America’s Little Sparta in the Middle East and North Africa, in the words of Washington Post reporter Rajiv Chandrasekaran.

In a throwback to the days after the 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks on New York and Washington, Saudi Arabia is fending off charges that its investment of billions of dollars in the last three decades in the global spread of Wahhabism, the kingdom’s puritan, inward-looking interpretation of Islam, is an important ideological and theological inspiration for jihadist groups like Islamic State, the group that controls a swath of Syria and Iraq.

In a statement as GCC labour ministers were meeting in Kuwait, 93 human rights groups and trade unions demanded the abolition of the region’s kafala or sponsorship system that puts workers at the mercy of their employers; ratify and implement international labour and human rights standards; and engage with trade unions. The statement highlighted the plight of domestic workers, the most vulnerable group of foreign labour, because they often are not included in legal labour provisions.

The International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) charged in a report published this weekend that GCC governments rather than amending laws and regulations have sought to confront the issue by agreeing on regionally standardized employment contracts that in the unions’ view “revealed serious defects.” The ITUC said the Gulf states lacked the political will to enact meaningful reform.

The activists’ stepped-up pressure is likely to be the heaviest on Qatar, the only GCC member that since its winning of its World Cup bid almost four years ago, has engaged with its critics. Unlike other Gulf states that bar entry to foreign activists and incarcerate their critics, Qatar has worked with the likes of Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch to develop new standards. It has allowed them to investigate the conditions of foreign workers who constitute a majority of the population in several Gulf states and issue condemnatory reports at news conferences in Doha.

The statement, issued in advance of the Abu Dhabi Dialogue, a collaborative multilateral governmental effort to improve labour mobility in Asia, signals mounting exasperation among activists with Qatar’s failure to put its money where its mouth is. Two major Qatari institutions, the Qatar Foundation and the 2022 Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy of the World Cup, have adopted in cooperation with human rights groups significantly improved labour standards. Qatar has however yet to adopt those standards nationally and ensure their implementation. The standards moreover fall far short of an abolition of kafala that among other things restricts a foreign worker’s ability to freely travel or seek alternative employment.

The reference in the statement to increased engagement with trade unions further underlines growing impatience among activists. In contrast to Qatar’s engagement with human rights group, its relationship with the ITUC has been troubled because of the group’s more aggressive approach which amounted to a good cop-bad cop division of labour among activists. Human rights activists have conceded in the past that labour reform constitutes an existential issue for Qatar, a country in which the citizenry accounts for a mere 12 percent of the population and that the Gulf state as a result would need time to act. The call for increased engagement implies however a growing sense among activists four years after Qatar won its World Cup hosting rights that the good cop-bad cop strategy has failed to produce results.

The activists’ expanded focus was evident in a series of recent reports on various Gulf states. It comes amid the inclusion of human and labour rights in contracts issued by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to future hosts of the Olympic Games and acknowledgement by FIFA that those rights should be part of its hosting criteria. Human rights groups and others like Transparency International are putting sports high on their agendas. Qatar and the UAE both have ambitions to host an Olympic Games.

The IOC’s focus on human rights puts Qatar because of the World Cup in the firing line and could have a fallout for Bahrain and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) that is headed by a member of the Bahraini ruling family as a result of allegations that senior Bahraini sports officials have been involved in the repression of athletes who allegedly participated in anti-government protests in recent years. Restriction of women’s sporting rights has also positioned Saudi Arabia and Iran, the GCC’s nemesis in the struggle for regional power, centre stage in the efforts of international sports associations to achieve some modicum of adherence to human rights.

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty have both in the last month targeted the UAE, already under fire for the conditions of foreign workers constructing facilities in Abu Dhabi for the Guggenheim Museum and New York University and in advance of Dubai’s hosting of the 2020 Expo. A Human Rights Watch report in late October focusing on conditions of domestic workers said the situation in the UAE was symptomatic for the region.

The UAE’s sponsorship system “chains domestic workers to their employers and then leaves them isolated and at risk of abuse behind the closed doors of private homes. With no labour law protections for domestic workers, employers can, and many do, overwork, underpay, and abuse these women,” said Rothna Begum, the group’s researcher. Rather than engaging, the UAE, Human Rights Watch said, reacted with “the usual complacency,” It accused the group of “sensationalist reporting.”

Amnesty, in a report entitled ‘There is no freedom here, Silencing dissent in the United Arab Emirates (UAE),’ charged last week that beneath “the glitz, the gloss and the glamour of the façade that the UAE’s rulers present to the world there is a much uglier reality where activists who dare to challenge the authorities or speak out in favour of greater democracy and government accountability are thrown into jail. There, they are cut off from the outside world for months at a time before they are tried and sentenced to long prison terms by courts that do little more than rubber stamp the decisions of the UAE executive.”

Far-reaching changes in its labour regim in response to the stepped up pressure could make Qatar a driver of change in a region that leaves no stone unturned in its effort to maintain the status quo and ring fence itself against the Middle East and North Africa’s clamour for change.

Qatar is because of the World Cup the Gulf state and multi-facetted soft power strategy most vulnerable to external pressure. Reforms it enacts will inevitably ripple throughout the Gulf. As a result, Qatar, already at odds with Saudi Arabia and the UAE because of its support for Islamists including the Muslim Brotherhood, could despite being an autocracy emerge in more than one way as a reluctant and perhaps unwitting catalyst of rather than a bulwark against some degree of change.

The post Activists Expand Labour And Human Rights Campaign Beyond Qatar To Include All Gulf States – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Felix K. Chang

How to deal with Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean has become a practical question for India.  In December 2013, China let it be known that one of its nuclear attack submarines would sail through the Indian Ocean over the following two months.  It was the first time that China confirmed such a transit.  At the time, many thought it would be a relatively rare occurrence.  But over the last couple of months, two more submarines appear to have made similar transits, after they were spotted making five-day long port calls in Sri Lanka.

On September 19, a Chinese Song-class diesel-electric attack submarine and its attendant Type 925 submarine support ship, the Changxing Dao, docked at the Colombo International Container Terminals for refueling and crew refreshment before the submarine set sail for the international anti-piracy effort in the Gulf of Aden.  Six weeks later, on October 31, there was another port call by a Chinese submarine and the Changxing Dao at the same facility.  Whether that port call was made by the same Song-class submarine which visited earlier or by a Han-class nuclear attack submarine, as some reports have indicated, remains unclear due to a lack of photos associated with its visit to Colombo.

Either way, the two port calls suggested that China might send more submarines (and with greater frequency) into the Indian Ocean in the future.  Naturally, that has heightened Indian concerns about Chinese power in the region.  But even more troubling to India was Sri Lanka’s readiness to welcome those submarines, in spite of Indian reservations.  After the first port call, New Delhi expressed to Colombo its concerns about such submarines visiting Sri Lankan ports.  Colombo dismissed India’s qualms, contending that Chinese submarines were no different than the other 230 foreign warships that visited Sri Lanka this year.  Many Indian observers saw the rebuff as a sign that Sri Lanka had decided to cozy up to China.  A few even argued that Sri Lanka had violated the 1987 peace accord between it and India in which Colombo agreed that its ports would “not be made available for military use by any country in a manner prejudicial to India’s interests.”

As to why the port calls occurred at all, some speculated that they were a response to India’s growing military relationship with Vietnam, a country locked in a dispute with China over the sovereignty of the South China Sea.  India has already become Vietnam’s principal military training partner, providing spare parts for Vietnam’s warships and training Vietnamese sailors in submarine operations.  In fact, India and Vietnam signed an agreement to engage in even closer military cooperation just days before the first port call.

The port calls also lent credence to long-held Indian suspicions of a Chinese scheme to encircle India through the development of military and economic ties with countries across the Indian Ocean.  Indian commentators have often pointed to the proliferation of Chinese infrastructure projects in the region as the manifestation of those ties, and collectively referred to the projects as China’s “string of pearls.”  Notably, the Colombo International Container Terminals facility (where the Chinese submarines docked) was one of those projects.  This year, China put its own name on its infrastructure-building efforts in the region: the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” initiative.  Two weeks ago Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that China would set up a $40 billion fund to support that initiative as well as contribute billions more to a new Asian infrastructure investment bank.  Both are designed to foster new building projects across South and Southeast Asia.  Both are also likely to further stoke India’s sense of unease over Chinese intentions.

No doubt Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean would complicate India’s naval situation in the Indian Ocean.  To reduce the danger from Chinese diesel-electric attack submarines, the Indian navy could step up its monitoring of Chinese submarine support ships and the region’s ports, which those submarines need to periodically refuel.  But Chinese nuclear attack submarines would pose a bigger challenge, as they do not need to refuel.  If supplied with timely intelligence, such submarines could put at risk Indian shipping throughout the region.

Already, the Indian navy has begun to prepare for that possibility.  But its planning has labored under a series of naval accidents in recent years, the deadliest of which occurred in August 2013 when an explosion aboard one of its Kilo-class submarines, the Sindhurakshak, killed 18 sailors.  At the same time, the navy continues to experience delays in its procurement of new warships and refit of its existing ones.  Between 2005 and 2010, 113 out of its 152 refit projects were late.  Many of them were combat platforms used for anti-submarine warfare (ASW).  But equally important are those platforms designed to search for and detect an adversary’s submarines.

While India’s land-based ASW helicopters and short-range maritime patrol aircraft (MPA), like its 14 Do 228 aircraft, are valuable to protect its key ports, the Indian navy must use long-range aviation assets to patrol the vast expanses of the Indian Ocean.  Historically, that mission has fallen to the navy’s handful of Soviet-vintage prop-driven aircraft.  Its four Tu-142M MPAs based at Rajali naval air station are responsible for the waters off India’s east coast; and its five Il-38 MPAs based at Hansa naval air station for the waters off its west coast.  But both sets of aircraft are showing their age.  Even setting aside the quality of their ASW sensors and the quantity of sonobuoys and weapons they can carry, the aircraft themselves are relatively slow compared to modern MPAs.  That is an important factor, given the long distances they need to cover in the Indian Ocean.

Hence, it was significant that the Indian navy began to upgrade its long-range MPA fleet in late 2008.  At that time, Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta explained the need for better “maritime domain awareness and network-centric operations along with a reliable stand-off deterrent” to deal with China’s naval rise.  That approach was reflected in India’s purchase of twelve P-8I MPAs from the United States.  Based on the Boeing 737 jet airliner, the P-8I provides the Indian navy with not only a more capable suite of ASW sensors and weapons, but also greater speed.  The aircraft has a cruising speed over 100 miles per hour faster than India’s current MPA fleet, allowing it to better prosecute any submarines that it detects at longer ranges.[1]

Long-range detection and prosecution are important if the Indian navy is to conduct ASW on an oceanic scale.  Fortunately for India, geography helps to some extent.  The eastern approaches into the Indian Ocean are funneled through narrow straits created by the Indonesian archipelago.  The most significant of these are the Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok Straits.  They offer Chinese submarines the most direct routes from their bases in southern China, particularly a major new one at Yalong Bay, into the Indian Ocean.  Naturally, the Indian navy would want to monitor those straits for the passage of Chinese submarines.

However, the Indian navy must watch its western flank too.  There, Pakistan—China’s “all-weather friend”—has drawn ever closer to Beijing in the wake of America’s scaled back engagement from Afghanistan.  Recently, Pakistani military spokesman Major General Asim Saleem Bajwa went so far as to say that “Pakistan sees China’s enemies as their own.”  Though his comment was directed at China’s Xinjiang militants, it also raised eyebrows in India, which has had a long history of conflict with Pakistan.  Hence, the Indian navy must also have ASW resources ready to counter the possibility that Chinese submarines may use a Pakistani port as a base of operations or that Pakistan’s five French-built Agosta-class diesel-electric attack submarines may even sortie in support of China.

Considering these strategic parameters, we can gauge the number of long-range ASW aviation assets that India would need to conduct oceanic ASW in the Indian Ocean.  We can assess that the Indian navy would have to establish at least two ASW barrier patrols along the eastern and western peripheries of the region (as well as keep a sufficient reserve for escort duty).  Given an operational readiness rate of 75 percent, we can then estimate that India would require a force of 40 to 48 long-range MPAs, likely divided into five or six squadrons of eight aircraft.[2]

The Indian navy could assign three of these MPA squadrons to its Eastern Naval Command, which would likely operate them from not only Rajali, but also Utkrosh naval air station in the Andaman Islands.  From these bases, it could use one squadron to establish an ASW barrier patrol at the western exit of the Malacca Strait and a second squadron to do the same further south, closer to the exits of the Sunda and Lombok Straits.  Finally, it could use a third squadron to support its surface fleet operations.  On the other side of the Indian subcontinent, the navy could assign the other two or three MPA squadrons to its Western and Southern Naval Commands to monitor the western approaches to India’s coast as well as the waters around Sri Lanka for submarine activity.

No one said that oceanic ASW was going to be easy or inexpensive.  But Asia’s changing strategic environment has begun to force India to reassess the kinds of resources that it will need to maintain its naval position in the Indian Ocean.  Given the pace of China’s military modernization, India would do well to mobilize those resources faster.

About the author:
Felix K. Chang is a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute as well as the co-founder of Avenir Bold, a venture consultancy. He was previously a consultant in Booz Allen Hamilton’s Strategy and Organization practice; among his clients were the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Department of the Treasury, and other agencies. Earlier, he served as a senior planner and an intelligence officer in the U.S. Department of Defense and a business advisor at Mobil Oil Corporation, where he dealt with strategic planning for upstream and midstream investments throughout Asia and Africa.

Source:
This article was published at FPRI.

Notes:

[1] Gulshan Luthra, “Indian Navy to induct 24 Long Range Maritime Reconnaissance Aircraft,” India Strategic, Dec. 2011; Rahul Bedi, “Indian naval head warns of Chinese military challenge,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Aug. 12, 2009; Freedom to Use the Seas: India’s Maritime Military Strategy (New Delhi: Integrated Headquarters, Ministry of Defence (Navy), May 2007), p. v.

[2] With a 75 percent readiness rate, each squadron would have six of its eight aircraft operational.  To maintain an effective ASW barrier patrol, two MPAs would constantly need to be on station.  Another two aircraft would be flying to or from the patrol area, and the last pair would be on the ground, preparing for their next patrol.

The post Chinese Submarines And Indian ASW In The Indian Ocean – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Andrea Gagliarducci

Cardinal Robert Sarah has been appointed as Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments — a decision that sets a decisive tone for Curial reform.

The cardinal’s first steps have been announced to the heads of the Vatican’s dicasteries during their meeting with the Pope this morning.

Until now Cardinal Sarah has served as president of the Pontifical Council Cor Unum, and will take over the post of Prefect of a congregation whose ranks have been profoundly changed since the previous prefect, Cardinal Antonio Canizares Llovera, was appointed archbishop of Valencia, Spain on Aug. 28.

Fr. Anthony Ward and Msgr. Miguel Anguel Ferrer, the two undersecretaries of the Congregation, were released with immediate effect Nov. 5, and replaced by Fr. Corrado Maggioni, who was promoted to the post of ‘unique undersecretary’ on Nov. 13.

This round of appointments came as a surprise, as Fr. Ward had been an appreciated official of the Congregation’s English section for more than 15 years. For his part, Msgr. Ferrer was a personal pick of Cardinal Canizares, with whom he shared a particular sensitivity for the traditional Latin Mass.

Msgr. Maggioni, on the other hand, is a disciple of Archbishop Piero Marini, formerly the papal Master of Ceremonies of John Paul II, who is known for being enthusiastic for innovative forms of the liturgy.

With his taste and experience, Cardinal Sarah is called to re-balance the Congregation for Divine Worship. The cardinal thus leaves the Pontifical Council Cor Unum, which will likely be dissolved into a bigger Congregation.

Cardinal Sarah went to a private audience with Pope Francis Nov. 13. According to Vatican sources, the cardinal was requested to give his perspective on the possible enrolling of his dicastery into a larger structure, and he gave the Pope his suggestions. He was also asked if he was available for this new post.

The placement of Cardinal Sarah is the first of a series of major appointments. The Secretariat of State’s new “Foreign minister,” British Archbishop Paul Gallagher, was appointed last week.

It is expected that a new Substitute for General Affairs will also soon be chosen, thus replacing Archbishop Angelo Becciu, who has held the position as third-in-command since Benedict XVI’s reign.

If the archbishop were to be moved, it would be another signal of Pope Francis’ aim to shape the Secretariat of State with people chosen directly by the current Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin.

The post Cardinal Sarah Appointment Paves Way For New Curia – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Mirza Sadaqat Huda

Since its inception in 1985, the efficacy of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) as a viable institutional mechanism that can facilitate the collective development and security of the region has come under increasing scrutiny. As the heads of the eight South Asian nations meet at the 18th SAARC Summit on November 26 in Kathmandu, one may be forgiven for questioning whether any concrete results are likely to emerge, or if the self defeating cycle of summits that lead to declarations to form expert groups, who create studies that ultimately gather dust in libraries and bureaucratic shelves is bound to continue.

Despite the failures of the past, the repeated declarations by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the need to reinvigorate ties with neighbouring states have created a renewed interest in the possibilities of multilateral cooperation under SAARC. As the leader of the founding member country of SAARC, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has consistently emphasised on the need for greater cooperation in the region. A certain sense of hope has been created via statements by the Indian and Bangladeshi governments to sign declarations on the crucial issues of energy and connectivity at the Summit.

However, whether these declarations have any specific time-bound provisions for implementation, particularly in the realms of infrastructure development, remains a question. In addition, several contemporary challenges have endangered the entire South Asian region and current provisions under SAARC are either inadequate or are missing altogether to elicit a collective response. This article firstly examines the constraints of SAARC as an institution, followed by an examination of the long term opportunities espoused by the three agreements that are expected to be signed at the 18th SAARC Summit. The subsequent section of the article undertakes an analysis of two immediate threats that confront South Asian countries and the ability of SAARC to adequately mitigate them.

Constraints of SAARC:

• A restrictive mandate: The creation of SAARC by Bangladesh’s President Ziaur Rahman was initially looked upon with suspicion by both India and Pakistan. India suspected SAARC to be a platform that will be used by the smaller South Asian countries for ‘ganging up’ against it, while Pakistan viewed it as an instrument of perpetuating Indian hegemony in the subcontinent. Subsequently, India insisted on the adoption of Article X within the SAARC Charter. This article has two provisions: Firstly it enshrined the principle of unanimity in decision making, and secondly it excluded all bilateral and contentious issues from deliberations (SAARC 1985). These two provisions and India’s general preference of bilateralism over multilateralism has constrained the decision making powers of SAARC and effectively eschewed the discussion of critical issues that have been labeled ‘contentious’, thereby perpetuating conflicts which in turn impinged on regional cooperation.
• armed India and Pakistan: In the face of continued rivalry and the perception among some policymakers in Pakistan that economic and other issues must take a backseat unless the Kashmir dispute is resolved, the SAARC summits of late has been termed by one analyst as the ‘India-Pakistan show’. Pakistan has also refused to give ‘Most Favoured Nation’ status to India, and the low level of trade between the two countries has had a crippling effect on the goal of regional economic integration. Ironically although Article X was meant to insulate SAARC from bilateral and contentious issues, the very functioning of SAARC has been undermined by this bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan.

These two are among a range of issues that have held back SAARC as a regional institution. However, as has been documented by Murthy (2000), SAARC not only remains to be the pre-eminent regional institution in South Asia, but many major breakthroughs have been achieved in reducing tensions between India and Pakistan on the sidelines of Summits. Analysts such as Jha (2007) have rightly stated that there is great scope for cooperation between SAARC countries on non-controversial issues such as the environment. In this light, how the three agreements that are expected to be signed can best facilitate the long-term goals of regional energy integration and connectivity needs to be examined.

Long-term goals of the 18th SAARC Summit

The upcoming SAARC summit is expected to see the signing of three important declarations:

1) SAARC Framework Agreement for Energy Cooperation (Electricity)

2) Motor Vehicle Agreement for the Regulation of Passenger and Cargo Vehicular Traffic

3) SAARC Regional Agreement on Railways

The exact details of the three agreements are yet to be released. However, at the risk of speculation, media reports have suggested that the agreement on energy will cover issues such as the enabling of cross border trade in electricity, the development of a common regulatory mechanism, considerations of the waiving of customs fees and the promotion of competition in the energy market. For Bangladesh, gaining access to the electricity market in Bhutan and Nepal through Indian territory will be of primary importance, while India’s extensive portfolio is expected to include the transmission of electricity from the North East through Bangladesh. The motor vehicle agreement will allow vehicles of South Asian states to ply in their neighbourng countries’ territories for transportation of cargo and passengers, while the rail agreement is meant to enable low-cost, energy efficient and environmentally sustainable transportation in the SAARC region.

From the very limited information that is available on the agreements, one question that may be asked is whether provisions have been made in the three agreements for the collective development and upgrading of energy, road and rail infrastructure and if any of the segments of cooperation have time-bound deliverables. The term collective is important here, as the purpose of energy and connectivity should not be limited to economic goals but they can also be used as confidence building measures between the countries of South Asia. For this to happen, the responsibility of reviving the Grand Trunk Road or implementing the SAARC Energy Grid would be best undertaken by a regional organization that can coordinate with national actors. The piecemeal approach of national actors working towards a regional goal by developing infrastructure only within their own territories would not have the desired level of efficiency or technical expertise as compared to the holistic approach of a regional body. A legitimate argument against this notion is that a regional body will unnecessarily complicate and even delay projects. However, a long-term vision will justify the necessity of a regional approach as it can have the essential impact of binding together the bureaucratic and technical elements in South Asia, which will increase the variety of stakeholders in the integration process and incentivize peace building. It needs to be reiterated that the impact of all three agreements will be magnified if time-bound deliverables are factored in during subsequent follow-up meetings at the Ministerial or Secretarial levels. These deliverables should not be constrained to the formation of groups or the commissioning of studies but constitute of actual progress in issues such as land acquisition, environmental clearances and the floating of tenders.

Immediate threats

The agreements discussed above can have great economic, political and social benefits in the long-term. However, South Asia currently faces grave external threats which have not yet seen a concerted regional response. This section examines whether the upcoming SAARC summit has any relevance towards efforts to counter two contemporary threats facing the region: the rise of the Islamic State (IS) and the Ebola Virus.

The Islamic State: The rise of the IS has not only thrown West Asia into chaos, it has the potential to have severe security concerns for South Asian countries. Already, the brutal terrorist organization has made its mark in Bangladesh, where one recruiter and three would be recruits have been arrested. In India, the IS has made overtures to recruit youngsters with reports of Indian citizens joining the group in recent months. Pakistan and Afghanistan, already reeling with home-grown insurgencies have also been the target of recruitment and propaganda by the IS.

The ratification of the SAARC Regional Convention on the Suppression of Terrorism and its Additional Protocol in 1988 and the creation of the SAARC Terrorist Offences Monitoring Desk (STOMD), which is meant to form a collective pool and source of information related to terrorism, has had little or no impact on the reduction of terrorism in the region. The last meeting of the STOMD was held as far back as 2011. The need to collectively counter terrorism is bound to come up for discussion in Kathmandu, with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina declaring her intention to speak about the issue. However, given the use of social media and internet chat sites by the IS to recruit members from South Asian countries, the need to increase the cooperation via the STOMD, particularly in the realm of cyber monitoring and information sharing among customs officials, should be implemented without further delay.

The Ebola virus: The Ebola Virus has so far killed 5,420 people in the West African region. The highly contagious nature of Ebola combined with poor health infrastructure, low patient to doctor ratios, high population densities and porous borders make South Asia particularly vulnerable to this deadly disease. Although the SAARC Health Ministers launched the SAARC Regional Strategy on Communicable Diseases in 2012, one wonders why there have not yet been any emergency meetings at the SAARC level on the dangers posed by Ebola, considering that such a meeting was held in 2003 to address the breakout of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus. Although Ebola is likely to come up for discussion, declarations and recommendations are hardly adequate to contain a disease that can have catastrophic consequences for the region. In this regard, prompt and collective action is required to set up a regional monitoring cell, comprising health, customs and border protection officials. A contingency plan in the event of an outbreak also needs to be drafted and ratified.

Expectations from the Summit

The three declarations on energy and connectivity that will be tabled on the 26th of November are of great importance to the long term goal of regional integration of South Asia. However, whether these declarations will lead to the political commitment to time-bound projects, especially in the joint construction of cross-border electricity transmission lines, and road and rail networks, is up for debate. On the other hand, as substantiated in the analysis above, the Islamic State and the Ebola virus pose immediate threats to the region, which also need to be accounted for, not simply by highlighting them in speeches and declarations, but through exploring ways of using the existing mechanisms in SAARC to undertake timely action.

Over its 29 years of existence SAARC has come under a substantial amount of criticism for its lack of progress in stimulating cooperation. However, it stands to reason that as the preeminent regional body, it is the only channel through which both the long term visions of regional energy cooperation and transport connectivity and the immediate needs of confronting the IS and Ebola can be achieved collectively.

(The writer is a Visiting Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)

The post SAARC Summit: Long Term Opportunities And Immediate Threats – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Emre Tunç Sakaoğlu

An early survey on factory conditions in China was released on Thursday, November 20.

The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from HSBC Plc and Markit Economics demonstrated a fall from 50.4 last month to 50.0 in November. The flash PMI figures also fell below the median monthly forecast of 50.2-50.3 generated by analysts.

The index in question is prepared according to around 85-90% of the responses to a poll by the purchasing executives of over 420 major companies. When the index, which uses a scale of 1 to 100, corresponds to a number above 50, that means the manufacturing sector is expanding; and when the number is below 50, it means there is contraction. The 50.0 index for November means China’s manufacturing sector has stalled after six consecutive months of growth.

According to the report, the factory output sub-index also fell to 49.5, a seven-month low. And the new export orders sub-index showed that although orders slightly increased overall, overseas orders decreased. In that sense, Thursday’s flash PMI data is proof that customer demand from abroad is still weak and that the rise in domestic demand is insufficient to compensate the difference.

The fall in China’s manufacturing activity to a six-month low in November is also seen as a reflection of sluggish growth in the global economy, which is yet to embark on a convincing recovery.

Mounting pressure

Xi Saoshi, the head of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said the country’s economy is facing serious downward pressure. He said the government is currently pushing forward structural reforms to tackle domestic imbalances that lead to slowdown in the economy.

The Chinese economy is expected to grow a maximum of 7.3 -7.4 percent this year, which will mark the country’s slowest yearly growth rate in more than two decades. And the latest survey came as the last link in a chain of disappointing figures concerning China’s economic trajectory.

Previous data showed that China’s growth in the third quarter slowed to 7.3 percent, the lowest figure since the global crisis of 2008-2009. They also pointed ata slight softening in the job market and the smallest rate of expansion in fixed asset investment since 2001.

The cooling real-estate market is also an alarming problem revealed by the recent data. China’s National Bureau of Statistics previously announced that property prices declined an overall 2.6 percent from October in 69 out of the70 cities it tracks in total.

On that account, the world’s No. 2 economy may feel compelled to further cut interest rates and inject more money into the economy in order to avert a hard-landing, according to analysts.

Liquidity boost needed

In his statement quoted by Reuters, Qu Hongbin, Chief China Economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, raised concern over disinflationary pressures, the subnormal capacity utilization rate, and the weakening labor market. Qu further underlined the uncertainties surrounding China’s property market and export growth potential in the forthcoming period.

According to Qu, fiscal and monetary easing is the only option that would allow Chinese decision-makers to address the economy’s problems accurately at this juncture amid weakening credit growth.

Thus far, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) avoided a broad-based cut in benchmark rates and reserve requirement ratios as non-performing loans are already scourging the market, and stuck with targeted easing measures instead.

The post China: Latest Manufacturing Gauge Signals Serious Slowdown In Q4 – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Two retired airforce Colonels were sentenced to 3 and 2 years in prison for the death of President Michelle Bachelet’s father, tortured for opposing the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet.

According to the Santiago court, Edgar Cevallos Jones and Ramon Caceres Jorquera committed the “crime of torture resulting in the death” of their former commander, Air Force General Alberto Bachelet Martinez, who died of a heart attack as a result in 1974.

Bachelet, who was loyal to deposed President Salvador Allende, was incarcerated following the September 1973 coup and charged with treason.

“This sentence is a step forward precisely to advance in the truth and justice Chile needs”, said a government spokesman.

Many slammed the ruling as lenient, considering the defendants are accused of torturing hundreds.

The post Chile: Colonels Convicted For Murder Of Bachelet’s Father appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(Civil.Ge) — Russia’s President Vladimir Putin met Abkhaz leader Raul Khajimba in Sochi on November 24 and signed new treaty between Russia and the breakaway region on “alliance and strategic partnership.”

Putin said before the talks that Russia will “double” assistance to Abkhazia, which politically, economically and militarily already relies heavily on Moscow.

“I would like to note at the beginning of our meeting that the relations between Russia and Abkhazia are developing very successfully; we have a good normative legal base,” Putin told Khajimba.

“At the same time, our experts, members of the Parliaments came to a conclusion that it is necessary to take additional steps in order to create the best conditions for the development of economic links, as well as to ensure security of Abkhazia and to solve the main task – to improve the lives of people,” Putin said.

“I am very glad to see you and I am sure that today’s meeting will give a good boost to the development of the entire complex of our relations,” the Russian President added.

Khajimba told Putin: “Our country has been going through difficulties for quite a long time and today we are entering into a new phase of relations: by signing of this agreement, we will definitely increase those possibilities, which were provided by the Russian Federation earlier.”

“It involves security, as well as the issues related to social-economic development of Abkhazia. We pin our hopes on these relations and we have no doubt that the assistance rendered to us will be really useful for our state,” Khajimba said.

He also said that doubling of Russia’s financial assistance to Abkhazia “will give us relevant possibilities for developing our economic potential.”

“If in previous years we were mainly focusing on social projects, today we face a task of increasing the level of economic opportunities of our country,” Khajimba said.

Idea of “upgrading” existing partnership treaty with Russia was first publicly floated in Abkhazia in late May amid political standoff between then Abkhaz leader Alexander Ankvab and opposition, which at the time was led by Khajimba. The proposal was voiced by Khajimba-led opposition movement, which at the time was holding presidential building in Sokhumi.

After Ankvab was ousted, during the election campaign in the lead up of snap presidential polls, Khajimba was calling for even closer ties with Russia, but short of “association”. Three days after being elected as president of the breakaway region, Khajimba met Putin on August 27 at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow and agreed to sign new comprehensive cooperation treaty before the end of this year.

On October 13 the Abkhaz side made public Russia-proposed draft treaty on “alliance and integration,” which was criticized in Sokhumi. Two weeks later the Abkhaz side put forth its revised version of the treaty. Although the final text, which was approved for signing by governments of the breakaway region and Russia on November 19 and 20, respectively, reflected most of the Abkhaz proposals, concerns about possible absorption of the region by Russia as a result of this treaty still remain in the part of the Abkhaz society.

The post Russia, Abkhazia Sign Treaty On Alliance And Strategic Partnership appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Spanish Congress should amend a deeply flawed public security bill that would curb spontaneous protest and formalize abusive expulsions of asylum seekers, said Human Rights Watch. The congressional committee on home affairs is due to adopt the bill on November 25, 2014, after which the bill will go the plenary for debate and vote in the coming days.

“The public security bill presents a direct threat to the rights of peaceful assembly and free speech in Spain,” said Judith Sunderland, senior Western Europe researcher at Human Rights Watch. “The government is trying to give itself broad discretion to curtail and punish dissent.”

The proposed Law on Public Security would allow authorities to fine people who hold spontaneous protests or who show “lack of respect” for law enforcement officers. It would also formalize the existing practice of summary expulsions of migrants and asylum seekers from Ceuta and Melilla, Spain’s enclaves in North Africa.

The bill contains a number of provisions that limit when and where protests may take place in ways that interfere unduly with the right to peaceful assembly, including the right to spontaneous protests. Broadly defined “organizers” of such protests in public places could be fined up to €600 (US$752) because the authorities have not been notified in advance, whether or not they cause a disturbance. The bill would also stifle freedom of speech by allowing hefty fines for showing “lack of respect” for law enforcement officers in the course of their duties.

The bill revises and expands on an existing law covering public security, giving administrative authorities the power to impose sanctions ranging from a minimum of €100 ($125) for minor infractions to a maximum of €600,000 ($752,972) for very serious infractions. The administrative sanctions envisioned do not appear to be necessary or proportionate. Although raucous and disruptive protests have become a part of life in Spain, the vast majority are peaceful. According to official Interior Ministry data, there were disturbances in only 323 out of 33,124 demonstrations in 2013, less than 1 percent. In the first three months of 2014, disturbances were recorded in only 62 out of 10,837 demonstrations.

Some of the infractions described in the bill were previously classified as minor offenses in Spain’s criminal code. The law would allow authorities to bypass the courts to punish protesters without the guarantee of a judicial process. Courts have quashed complaints against leaders and participants in demonstrations, affirming the right to spontaneous, nonviolent protest.

Freedom of assembly and speech are basic human rights essential for the exercise of other human rights and the enjoyment of democracy. European and international human rights law require limiting any restrictions on the right to assembly and on freedom of speech to what is necessary in a democratic society. The manner and intensity of state interference must be necessary to attain a legitimate purpose, and any restriction must also be proportionate. Laws regulating freedom of assembly must be crafted precisely to minimize room for arbitrariness.

The bill contains provisions that affect other basic rights, such as the right to asylum and the right to nondiscrimination, Human Rights Watch said.

An amendment to the bill, later revised, would formalize the practice of summary expulsions from Ceuta and Melilla, Spain’s enclaves in North Africa. The current wording would allow the automatic return to Morocco of anyone caught attempting to cross over the fences along the enclave borders in a group. National and international human rights groups, including Human Rights Watch, have called previously on the Spanish parliament to reject the measure. UNHCR, the United Nations refugee agency, and the European Commission have also expressed concern about the plan. Automatic returns without any procedural safeguards constitute a clear breach of European and international human rights law and put asylum seekers and migrants at greater risk of abuse.

In a more positive development, the bill revises existing law on police identity checks to include the important requirement for such stops to respect the principle of nondiscrimination. While this is a step in the right direction, the current text does not go far enough to prevent and remedy abusive identity checks and the use of ethnic profiling, Human Rights Watch said. The law should explicitly define and prohibit ethnic profiling, require all stops to be based on an individualized, reasonable suspicion of wrongdoing, and should create a means for ensuring accountability and appropriate data collection.

The government adopted a first draft of the bill in December 2013. Following significant criticism – and protests – from nongovernmental organizations and recommendations from the General Council of the Judiciary among other institutions, the government presented a new version in July that eliminated or toned down many, but not all, of the most problematic provisions. While opposition parties tried to block the entire bill and subsequently proposed dozens of amendments, the ruling Popular Party has an absolute majority in parliament.

“If ever there was a time for conscientious Popular Party parliamentarians to break ranks, this is it,” Sunderland said. “They should not allow Spain to become the European country that stifles voices on the street and tramples fundamental rights.”

The post Spain’s Public Security Bill Is Flawed, Says HRW appeared first on Eurasia Review.

As the US-led international coalition continues its airstrikes in Iraq and northern Syria in a bid to halt the Jihadi advance, Islamic State is stepping up its persecution of journalists, either threatening to kill them, kidnapping them or mistreating those it is already holding, according to Reporters Without Borders.

Islamic State is now holding at least 20 journalists in Mosul (in northern Iraq), the largest city it controls.

According to the Journalistic Freedoms Observatory (JFO), Islamic State kidnapped nine journalists more than a month ago, six of whom it is still holding and three it released. Then it kidnapped another 14 reporters, cameramen and TV engineers and technicians – most employed by Sama Mosul TV ­– in Mosul in late October and early November.

JFO also reports that IS has issued a new list of names of 50 journalists and media workers who are personally threatened. This has obviously increased the already considerable alarm in media circles in Mosul.

“IS has been pursuing its brutal policies against all and sundry while systematically persecuting the news media and their employees since the start of its offensive in Iraq,” Reporters Without Borders programme director Lucie Morillon said.

“Journalists working in territory occupied by IS, especially Mosul, are exposed to extreme danger. They are being targeted because of their profession, because they automatically posed a threat to the Jihadi group’s propaganda. The authorities must do everything possible to protect these guarantors of freedom of information and therefore all the other freedoms, whether in Mosul or other war-torn regions.”

Terror reigns in Mosul, with journalists and other civilians unable to leave the city and too scared to talk for fear of IS reprisals.

According to JFO, the Jihadi group seized control of Sama Mosul TV, which is operated by the governor of Nineveh province, during its June offensive. JFO also reports that, since the start of its offensive in northern Iraq, IS has arrested and then released more than 17 journalists after interrogating them and getting them to sign undertakings about their journalistic activities.

IS takes advantage of information “black holes”

Some media have quoted anonymous sources in Mosul as saying IS carries out night-time operations with the aim of finding journalists and forcing them to work under its orders or taking advantage of their professional expertise. Many journalists feel closely watched and some have been arrested at home at night.

The information coming from Mosul and the other cities that IS controls or disputes, such as Tikrit and Samarra (in Salah-ad-Din province) and Fallujah and Ramadi (in Anbar province), is hard to verify.

Local media have briefly reported murders or abductions of journalists by IS but it has not been possible to confirm the reports or identify the sources. IS exploits the existence of these information “black holes” to deploy its own media and dominate “coverage,” paying a great deal of attention to its image, whether for recruitment purposes or to inspire terror.

A long list of crimes in IS-controlled regions in Syria

As fighting continues in Kobane, the Jihadis are still occupying almost entire regions in parts of northern and eastern Syria including the city of Raqqa and the eastern oil province of Deir Ezzor.

Some journalists are still missing or held hostage by armed groups including IS. The latest was abducted from his home in Deir Ezzor on 14 November. According to our sources, he was targeted because of his contacts with TV stations such as Orient TV that are on an IS blacklist.

A UN commission of enquiry into war crimes in Syria published a detailed report about IS on 14 November based on the accounts of around 300 victims and witnesses. According to the UN, former detainees said journalists and fixers who have worked for the foreign media are among those who are treated worst in IS detention centres.

According to the tally kept by Reporters Without Borders, two foreign journalists, eight Syrian journalists and one Iraqi journalist have been killed by IS, which is currently holding one foreign journalist hostage, and which has kidnapped at least 20 Iraqi journalists in Iraq.

Since the start of the conflict in Syria, around 20 Syrian journalists have gone missing or are being held by IS or other armed groups.

The post Islamic State Holding At Least 20 Media Workers Hostage In Mosul appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Saneya Arif

This year, 17 October 2014, celebrated as Sir Syed Day in the memory of Sir Syed Ahmad Khan, founder of the Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), refreshed memories and raised questions related to various Islamic movements till date and their relevance in today’s world. Why have traditional Islamic movements failed today? Why have the Salafi and Wahhabi movements gained traction among the Muslim populations?

Aligarh, Deoband and Barelvi Movements

The Aligarh movement, like other movements, was initiated for a cherished goal. Aggrieved by the decimation of his community in the aftermath of the 1857 revolt, Khan saw modern scientific education to be the only ray of hope for restoring the lost glory of his people. Notwithstanding the opposition from his co-religionists, Khan succeeded in bringing modern education to Muslims. However, the fulfillment of the goal put a halt on the movement. Although a pioneering institution for imparting modern education, the AMU rarely occupies a space in the minds of Muslims today in the same sense. It is instead viewed as a hub where political dogma convert themselves into propaganda against the status quo.

Reasons more or less similar led to the loss of traction in the Deobandi and Barelvi movements – both of which are different from each other for an array of reasons. The Sunni groups, the Deobandis and the Barelvis are the two major groups of Muslims in the Indian subcontinent apart from the Shia Muslims. Barelvis consider the Deobandis as kafir (infidels). The latter accuse the Barelvis of being ignorant shrine and grave-worshippers. Both impart traditional education that is not much in fashion today due to the growing numbers of liberal and modern Muslims. Fatwas (legal opinion or learned interpretation) issued by madrassas affiliated to both movements, e.g. the Madrasa Manzar-e-Islam and Darul Uloom Deoband, have little following. The world view of the expanding Muslim moderates are in complete contrast with those of these institutions.

Contrary to popular perceptions, Muslims in India wish to keep themselves out of any trap of radicalisation today. Their affinity to modern ideas is a contrast to the paradigms propagated by these institutions. Today, the role of madrassas is confined to being mediums of imparting the knowledge of Quran only, and not centres of higher education. As a result, the Deoband and the Barelvi movements stand somewhat unwanted and irrelevant, as their preaching borders on the margins of intolerance and radicalism.

Salafi and Wahhabi Movements

Today, the Salafi and Wahhabi movements, now a pivot of Islamic movements, dominate the global panorama. Salafi in traditional Islamic scholarship means someone who died within the first four hundred years after Prophet Mohammed. It was revived as a slogan and movement among latter-day Muslims by the followers of Muhammad Abduh to propagate the view that Islam, subject to several interpretations and explanations, had not been properly understood by anyone since the Prophet. It was here the Salafi school of thought gained importance among Muslims, claiming the power of rightful interpretation of the religion and serving as a beacon for the ignorant and easily-swayed Muslims.

The Wahhabi movement, on the other hand, is regarded as the central movement by most Muslims, due to its teachings regarding state and religion. According to this school of thought, the Ulema are responsible for the protection of the divine law and one can accept the rule of anyone who follows Shariah. Based on the principle of pure monotheistic worship, this movement also advocated purging of practices such as popularising cults of saints, and shrine visitation, widespread among Muslims since the spread of Sufi Islam. The movement considered these as impurities and innovations in Islam, an extreme form of which they believe may lead the believers to shirk (by practising idolatry or polytheism).

Such attempts to project a puritan form of Islam bereft of impurities and innovations have further benefited from and have been influenced by the rapidly transforming geopolitical scenarios in the modern era, resulting in Wahhabim becoming more open and inclusive – by targeting not just Sunni Muslims, but also non-Sunnis and non-Muslims in their preachings – and thereby attracting more audiences. Additionally, the spread of education and advancements in communication systems have made it easier to transmit Wahhabi doctrines to different segments of Muslim populations across the globe.

In the early years of the Wahhabi movement, there were instances where the press in Saudi Arabia was not allowed to publish photographs, illustrations and imagery of human faces as it was considered a taboo among the Wahhabis. That is no longer the case today. Noticeable positive changes such as education for girls and changing attitudes towards smoking, among others – that are no longer considered moral negligence deserving punishment – result in the movement being perceived as relatively open and therefore, acceptable. Lastly, the rise of terrorist group, the Islamic State (IS) has given much assemblage to the Wahhabi movement. While the IS practices an extreme interpretation of the sharia, at a fundamental level, it follows Wahhabism.

Once considered to be an extremist pseudo-Sunni movement, Wahhabism has a different face in India. Although the seeds of polarisation continue to be sown from the outside world, Shias and Sunnis co-exist peacefully in India.

Saneya Arif
Research Intern, IPCS
Email: saneya.arif08@gmail.com

The post Understanding The Attraction Of Salafi And Wahhabi Movements – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Titli Basu

The first Xi-Abe meeting in Beijing on the sideline of APEC summit is the much needed constructive development in China-Japan relations which is navigating through one of the most difficult times since the nationalization of the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in September 2012. While this meeting alone cannot undo the prevailing hostility between these two Asian powers, it is nevertheless a welcome step since both the two country leadership agreed to cultivate political trust. The biggest take away from this summit is the Four-Point Principled Agreement on Handling and Improving Bilateral Relations. This agreement enables reviving of political, diplomatic and security dialogue along with institution of crisis management mechanisms to avert incidents in the East China Sea.

The Four-point Agreement is a much needed confidence-building measure between China and Japan. While Japan officially maintains that no territorial dispute exists, China wants a categorical acknowledgement of the dispute besides assurance concerning Abe’s restrain on the Yasukuni Shrine. Months of difficult negotiation led to a carefully crafted agreement underscoring ‘different positions’ vis-à-vis Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, thus catering to the sentiments of their respective domestic constituencies. Moreover, on the Yasukuni Shrine, China and Japan has agreed on ‘overcoming political obstacles’ in the spirit of ‘facing history squarely and looking forward to the future’. While the agreement reflects certain ambiguity, it is a positive step towards gradually enabling dialogue and consultation between these two Asian powers.

Escalation of tension has scarred the relation between these two neighbours in recent times. Abe has systematically employed the China threat theory while underscoring the severe security environment surrounding Japan and articulated his country’s position on various occasions including the 13th Shangri-La Dialogue. China has also methodically cultivated anti-Japanese agenda and argued that Abe is fabricating a China threat to justify his own militarist ambitions. There were repeated violation of each other’s territorial water and airspace, alleged targeting of Chinese radars at the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) destroyer in the East China Sea, outlining of Chinese ADIZ, unfolding reorientation of the pacifist constitution and major shifts in Japanese security policy. The historical baggage inflicted by Imperial Japan, sentiments attached to Abe’s December 2013 Yasukuni Shrine visit, mounting anti-Japanese emotions triggered by the approaching 70th anniversary of end of World War II, contested claims in the East China Sea, and asymmetrical power politics has affected regional peace and stability.

The fallout of this mutual antagonism has been reflected in the trade and economic ties between the two countries. Intensification of the conflict has negatively affected the business interests of the world’s second and third largest economies. There is enormous pressure from the business lobbies to undo the downward trend in bilateral trade – Japan’s trade with China increased 14.3% to US$344.9 billion in 2011, but declined 3.3% to US$333.664 billioni in 2012 and 6.5% to US$311.995 billion in 2013. While Japan wants China as an important export market, Chinese exports depend on parts originating from Japan. Riots in China following the nationalization of the contested islands affected Japanese businesses. Meanwhile, China cannot afford to lose the investments and technology transfers facilitated by the Japanese companies operating in China.

The recent Xi-Abe meeting is also significant for the US. Earlier the US expressed concern regarding the escalation of power struggle between China and Japan bearing implications for the regional peace and stability. Japan is conscious of the prevailing fear of entrapment rationale in the US strategic community pertaining to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. While the scope of Article 5 of the security treaty obligations extends to all the territories under the administration of Japan, including the contested Senkaku Islands, US is anxious that it may get entangled in a clash with China with whom it is nurturing new power equation. Additionally, the US’ military preoccupations in the Middle East and Central Asia, and anxiety over cutbacks in the US defense budget raised Japanese worries vis-à-vis US obligation.

Stabilizing China-Japan bilateral relations is critical for peace in the East Asia. It has to be seen how this four-point agreement will translate into action. Japan is heading for elections on December 14 and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is most likely to retain power. It will be unrealistic to assume that significant progress on the contentious history and sovereignty row could be resolved following just one summit meeting. Nevertheless, the intentions to gradually develop a mutually beneficial strategic partnership founded on the four basic political documents, including the 1972 China-Japan Joint Statement; the 1978 China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship; the 1998 China-Japan Joint Declaration; and the 2008 Joint Statement on Advancing Strategic and Mutually-Beneficial Relations in a Comprehensive Wayii underlines a considerable leap in China-Japan relations.

Notes:
i. Analysis of Japan-China Trade in 2013 and outlook for 2014, Japan External Trade Organization, February 28, 2014 https://www.jetro.go.jp/en/news/releases/20140228009-news accessed on November 18, 2014
ii.Yang Jiechi Meets National Security Advisor of Japan Shotaro Yachi, China and Japan Reach Four-Point Principled Agreement on Handling and Improving Bilateral Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of People’s Republic of China, November 7, 2014 http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1208360.shtml accessed on November 18, 2014

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/XiAbehandshake_tbasu_241114.html

The post Xi-Abe Handshake, Not Yet An Embrace – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

As we take a look back in history, one of the greatest tragedies in the last century is the Khojaly Massacre orchestrated by the Armenian army that killed at least 613 ethnic Azerbaijani civilians from the town of Khojaly on February 25-26, 1992, during the War of Nagorno-Karabakh: 63 of them were children, 106 of them were women and 70 were old people. Eight families were completely destroyed, 25 children lost both of their parents, 130 children lost only one of their parents, 657 men became disabled, and 1275 were captivated. The fate of 150 captured men is still unknown.

For Mr. Tale Hasanov, Editor in Chief of the European-Azerbaijan Information Center: “the current history has witnessed many bloody events. But to live horrors of Khojaly tragedy where women, old men and children were savagely killed and to bear this is out of the human will. Only we, Azerbaijanis could live that tragedy. Because we are the nation who witnessed many tragedies throughout history…”

This conflict has become one of the longest conflicts in modern history and has been protracted for over two decades due to the repeated military exercises, provocation maneuvers undertaken by the Armenian Army in the Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding territories invaded by Armenia, and propaganda warfare that Armenian government has led against Baku and its democratic government of President Ilham Aliyev.

Armenian military provocations have been more frequent in the border areas with Azerbaijan, and even worst the bloody shadows of the Khojaly Massacre hunt until today the Azerbaijani civilians, farmers who live in their ancestral land, nearby Nagorno-Karabakh, and continue to be attacked and killed by Armenian reconnaissance forces who intentionally violate the ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan.

According to the Defense Ministry Officials in Baku, only in the last 24 hours, Armenian Armed Forces have broken the ceasefire 75 times with Azerbaijan. These sporadic shootings have taken place on numerous positions on a border that is almost 100 miles long.

On November 22, the Armenian Armed Forces opened fire against the following neighboring villages: Gulustan of Goranboy district; Chilyaburt, Gizil Oba of Terter district; Shikhlar, Shuraabad, Bash Gervend, Kengerli, Yusifjanli, Merzili, Javakhirli, Garagashli of Aghdam district; Kuropatkino of Khojavend district; Horadiz, Garakhanbeyli, Gorgan, Ashagi Veyselli, Ashagi Seyidahmadli of Fizuli district and Mehdili of Jabrayil district. The positions of Azerbaijani Army were also hit by the Armenian heavy weaponry located in the districts of Goranboy, Fizuli and Khojavend. In front of all these armed provocations, Azerbaijani military forces were obliged to respond by fire until the Armenian provocateurs would refrain from shooting.

In relation to the Khojaly Massacre, Thomas Patrick Lowndes de Waal, a British journalist who is best known for his book “Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War”: the president of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan appears to be proud and is unwilling to regret and publicly apologize for the mass slaughtering conducted by his fellow countrymen against civilians of a neighboring peaceful nation such as Azerbaijan.

An Armenian dashnak and author Zori Balayan in his book “Revival of our souls” recalls the experiences of a ruthless Armenian hit man (merciless man):“….With the requirement of dignity of citizenship and the duty of a holy man I participated in the massacres of Khojaly…When I and Khachatur entered the house, our soldiers had nailed a 13-year-old Azerbaijani child to the wall. In order for him not to make much noise, Armenian soldiers put his dead mother’s cut breast into his mouth. Then I scalped-cut the head of a Turkish child and skinned his chest and belly. Seven minutes later, the child died due to bleeding …. . Then Khachatur cut his body into pieces by axe and threw them to dogs of the same origin with Turks. We did the same to three other Turkish children in the evening. I did my duty as an Armenian patriot.” What kind of bilateral negotiations do we expect from the “political elite” that rules Armenia today? Which is the same government that defends and protects these monstrous acts of criminals who have committed the most horrific crimes against humanity and have barbarously killed hundreds of Azerbaijani civilians by using horrendous methods that even Adolf Hitler’s SS officers, had not undertaken against the civilian Jewish population of Germany during World War II.

Another Armenian dashnak Davud Kheyriyan in his book entitled “In the name of Jesus” published in Beirut wrote: “This cold morning we had to make more than 1 km distance in the direction of Dashbulag where there were piles of dead bodies all around. I did not want to walk on dead bodies. At that time lieutenant-colonel Ohanyan pointed to me that there is no reason to be afraid. These are the rules of war. …. I put my foot on a bloody chest of a 9 to 11 years old girl and began to walk. My shoes and trousers are full of blood.”

According to APA, there are many facts attesting the involvement in the Khojaly Massacre of Zori Balayan – one of ideologists of “Greater Armenia”. Zori Balayan is searched by Interpol and admits and proudly praises the Armenian genocide against Azerbaijanis in Khojaly in his book “Revival of our souls” published in 1996: “I did my duty as an Armenian patriot. Khachatur had sweated much. But I saw struggle of revenge and great humanism in his and other soldiers’ eyes. The next day, we went to the church and prayed to clear our souls from what had happened in the previous day. But we were able to clear Khojaly from slops of 30 thousand people”, the book reads. Zori Balayan said every Armenian should be proud of this action. The above mentioned crimes of Armenians against the Azerbaijani civilians and children are described on pages 260-262 of the book “Revival of our souls” published in 1996.

The protracted bloody war, which begun in the late 1980s due to Armenia’s territorial claims against its South Caucasus neighbor, left thousands of Azerbaijani civilians of Nagorno-Karabakh and the neighboring regions as internally displaced persons who are accommodated in more than 1600 refugee camps across 62 cities and regions of Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani civilians in other regions bordering with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have the same fate of being expelled and relocated in Azerbaijan while living in very difficult conditions, refugee camps, tents and wagons.

As a result of the military aggression of Armenia, over 20,000 Azerbaijanis were killed, almost 100,000 were injured, and 50,000 were disabled. The UN Security Council has passed four resolutions on Armenian withdrawal from the Azerbaijani territory, but unfortunately have not been enforced to this day.

On February, 2015, the international community will commemorate the 23rd anniversary of the Khojaly Massacre, however it is unfortunate that Yerevan’s leadership continues to flex its muscles as well as its belligerent foreign and defense policies continue to be the same as in the late 1980s. To set the record straight, Armenian president is not willing to accept and regret these massive atrocities committed in Khojaly against the innocent civilians of the Republic of Azerbaijan. To conclude there is no other expression that describes the Armenian attitude better than what George Santayana, a XX century American philosopher, said in his first volume of “The Life of Reason”: “those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

The post Khojaly Massacre: Armenian Genocide Against Azerbaijani Civilians – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Air Force Tech. Sgt. Jake Richmond

Praising Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s “class and integrity,” President Barack Obama announced Monday at the White House that Hagel will leave his post.

The president said Hagel has agreed to remain in his position until a successor is nominated and confirmed. For that, Obama said, he is “extraordinarily lucky and grateful.”

“When I asked Chuck to serve as secretary of defense, we were entering a significant period of transition,” Obama said. That transition included the drawdown in Afghanistan, the need to prepare our forces for future missions, and tough fiscal choices to keep our military strong and ready.

Last month, Obama said, Hagel came to him to discuss the final quarter of his presidency. It was then that Hagel initially determined that, having guided the department through this transition, it was an appropriate time for him to complete his service, the president added.

A Steady Hand

“Over nearly two years, Chuck has been an exemplary defense secretary,” Obama said, crediting Hagel for providing a steady hand during the modernization of the administration’s strategy and budget to meet long-term threats, while still responding to immediate challenges such as ISIL and the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

Hagel said he is “immensely proud” of what the department has accomplished during his tenure.

“I believe we have set not only this department, the Department of Defense, but the nation on a stronger course toward security, stability and prosperity,” the secretary said.

Privileged to Serve

Hagel called his opportunity to serve as defense secretary the “greatest privilege of my life.”

In the meantime, Hagel said, “I will stay on this job and work just as hard as I have over the last couple of years, every day, every moment, until my successor is confirmed by the United States Senate.”

The United States of America can proudly claim the strongest military the world has ever known, Obama said.

“That’s the result of the investments made over many decades, the blood and treasure and sacrifices of many generations,” he said. “It’s the result of the character and wisdom of those who lead them as well, including a young Army sergeant in Vietnam who rose to serve as our nation’s 24th secretary of defense.”

The post Obama Announces Hagel’s Resignation As Defense Secretary appeared first on Eurasia Review.

While the visual impact of the meeting between Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe was uninspiring, the communiqué regarding the disputed East China Sea islets is a positive step. The test of success, however, will be to see what effect it has on the two countries’ rhetoric and behaviour.

By Ian C. Forsyth

The APEC Summit that recently concluded in Beijing was a forum for many memorable images, most notably the uncomfortable handshake between China’s President Xi Jinping and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This long-delayed meeting was the follow-up of a communiqué drafted on 7 November 2014, when State Councillor Yang Jiechi held talks with visiting National Security Advisor of Japan Shotaro Yachi in Beijing.

At that prior meeting the two sides reached a four-point principled agreement to arrest deteriorating bilateral relations. The agreement’s four terms are that the two sides: 1) affirm they will follow the principles and spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan and continue developing the China-Japan strategic relationship for mutual benefit; 2) agree on overcoming political obstacles in the bilateral relationship; 3) acknowledge that different positions exist between them regarding tensions over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and some waters in the East China Sea, and agree to prevent these tensions from escalating via dialogue and consultation and to establish crisis management mechanisms to avoid contingencies; and 4) agree to gradually resume political, diplomatic, and security dialogue through various multilateral and bilateral channels and to make efforts to build political mutual trust.

Empty gestures or crucial first step?

Opinion on the significance of the communiqué and the subsequent handshake is divided between optimists and pessimists. Pessimists assert that these are little more than symbolic, and that no real reduction in regional tensions will result. Evidence for this lies in the fact that hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels have been appearing off the Ogasawara Islands, preparing for illegal coral fishing. Furthermore, Abe declared there has been no change in Japan’s stance on the isles at the heart of the territorial dispute.

Along those lines, the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun declared that the reference to “different views” do “not impair Japan’s position so far that ‘there is no territorial dispute’”. It said Tokyo has “firmly” maintained its stance, quoting an anonymous Foreign Ministry official as saying, “the Japanese side has not made any concession on territory”. This contrasts with the triumphalism of the Chinese media, proclaiming that Abe conceded to China’s demands.

Ultimately, pessimists do not see this as any real compromise on stances and that competing national interests ensure that regional tensions over maritime and sovereignty claims will persist.

Optimists choose to grade these meetings on a curve, however. Even having this meeting is a positive step, considering the low baseline of bilateral relations. The “differing positions” quoted is the closest the Abe administration has come to acknowledging China also claims sovereignty over the islets, and allows both parties to save face, which is what diplomatic statements must do. Moreover, revitalisng the talks on establishing a hotline to be used for direct contact in case of incidents is a major part of the meeting.

Interestingly, Beijing also avoided sending any vessels at all to the Diaoyus/Senkakus’ contiguous zone during a two-week period in October. Ultimately, optimists assert that at this stage, it is about arresting the downward trend in bilateral relations more than anything else, and by this metric the meetings and communiqué are a success. Furthermore, meetings and agreements such as these – however modest – are what paves the way for improved bilateral relations.

Proof of the pudding

So were the meetings a success? In the words of Zhou Enlai, it is too soon to say. The test for both countries will be how it changes future rhetoric and future behaviour.

The first test will be if Tokyo integrates “differing positions” into its official vernacular regarding the Diaoyus/Senkakus. If it reasserts that there is “no dispute” over the Diaoyus/Senkakus then the third point of the communiqué is essentially null and void and arguably the most important element of the meetings will fall inert. The follow-up test will be how Tokyo uses the “differing positions” verbiage. Beijing has always asserted that for any negotiations over the islands to commence, Tokyo must first acknowledge China’s claim over them. Does this provide such acknowledgement and if so, is China now on notice that it must come to the negotiating table?

If Tokyo uses this verbiage and in essence applies this communiqué, Beijing will be confronted with pressure to follow through on the spirit of it and respect Tokyo’s concessions to negotiate. Moreover, it frees Japan to seek international adjudication over the islets’ sovereignty, as acknowledging China’s claim is a prerequisite for doing so.

The second test will be the viability of the hotline. The countries have reinvigorated the proposal of a crisis hotline, but the success of such will lie in the details. Where will this hotline connect to? What is the protocol for using it? And most importantly, will someone actually pick up? It must be actually used in order to be considered a success.

Lastly, what are the expectations regarding Abe’s visits to the Yasukuni shrine? There was no public commitment from Abe that he would cease visits there, as Beijing demanded, but there is speculation that he has made private assurances to that effect. If he makes any visit, then Beijing has its excuse to completely disregard the communiqué.

Short term win-win-win

There was nothing in the meetings nor in the communiqué itself that changes national interests, so there is no reason to believe that bilateral relations will enter a massive warming period and regional tensions will permanently be reduced. This is a short-term political victory for both leaders, however.

Abe wins by concluding a seeming rapprochement with Japan’s largest trading partner. He can claim that he has improved bilateral relations while not conceding any territory. Xi gets face and prestige by granting an audience on his home turf with a security rival but economic partner. He can claim that he got Japan to agree there is a dispute, even if that particular word was not used. Both leaders realise that neither country can afford a dispute. Lastly, the region can win if both countries follow the spirit, if not the letter of the communiqué.

Ian C. Forsyth is a Visiting Fellow at the Military Transformations Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. Dr. Forsyth works as an analyst at the United States Pacific Command in Hawaii.

The post Sino-Japan Ties: Progress At APEC Summit? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.