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Thailand: Website Editor Gets Jail Term For Article Critical Of Military Coup

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Reporters Without Borders said Wednesday it condemns a Bangkok military court’s political use of Thailand’s lèse-majesté legislation to sentence a journalist critical of the military, Thai E-News editor Somsak Pakdeedech, to nine years in prison on 24 November.

The court halved the nine-year term because Somsak Pakdeedech, detained since his arrest by soldiers three days after the 22 May military coup, pleaded guilty.

According to Reporters Without Borders, the pretext for Somsak’s arrest was an article by an academic that he posted on the site in 2011. He was charged under criminal code article 112 on security offences, which says that any defamatory, insulting or threatening comments about the king, queen, crown prince or regent are punishable by three to 15 years in prison.

The offending article was written by Giles Ji Ungpakorn, a political science professor at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, who was forced to flee Thailand in February 2011 after being charged with lèse-majesté in connection with his book “A coup for the rich,” Reporters Without Borders said.

“Somsak had been in the military’s sights before their coup,” said Benjamin Ismaïl, the head of the Reporters Without Borders Asia-Pacific desk. “We firmly condemn this sentence, which was a reprisal for his and his website’s anti-military views, and we demand his immediate release.”

According to Reporters Without Borders, Thai E-News, which aggregates political news from various online sources, has often been censored during periods of political tension. In July 2010, it was one of the so-called “pro-Red Shirt” websites that were blocked at the same time as the official Red Shirt party website, uddthailand.com.

It is currently being blocked again by the information and communications technology ministry, but can be accessed from abroad, Reporters Without Borders noted.

Reporters Without Borders said that since seizing power on 22 May, the military seem to have been trying to bring online media and social networks under ever-closer control. Kathawut Boonpitak, the host of an online radio show, was sentenced to five years in prison on a lèse-majesté charge on 18 November. Reporters Without Borders condemns his sentences as disproportionate as well.

Thailand is ranked 130th out of 180 countries in the 2014 Reporters Without Borders press freedom index.

The post Thailand: Website Editor Gets Jail Term For Article Critical Of Military Coup appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Overcoming Stigma Of Sexual Violence In Bosnia-Herzegovina – OpEd

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Up to 50,000 women were raped during the civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The stigma and silence around sexual violence means that their suffering has continued long after the end of the conflict. A joint initiative by the British Embassy and civil society hopes to change this.

By Tim Bidey

Last week saw the launch of a week of activity in cities across Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), aimed at increasing widespread awareness of the ‘Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict Initiative’. The initiative is working to replace the culture of impunity for crimes of sexual violence in conflict with one of deterrence, and was launched in 2012 by the former UK Foreign Secretary William Hague and the Special Envoy for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Angelina Jolie.

Bosnia is a country that has long borne witness to such crime. An estimated 20,000-50,000 Bosniak, Serb, and Croat women were raped during the 1992-95 war. However, the cessation of hostilities did little to ease victims’ suffering. To this day, publicly identifying oneself as either a victim or survivor of sexual violence continues to carry such a high social stigma that admission to can cause family abandonment, isolation, and economic and social marginalization. As such, many women are too afraid to come forward and seek professional support, forcing them to endure alone the effects of the crimes perpetrated against them.

It’s within this context that the British Embassy in Sarajevo, the OSCE Mission to BiH, the Post-Conflict Research Center (PCRC), the Peace Support Operations Training Centre, Medica Zenica, the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN), and others, have planned a public awareness week. It aims to respond to the landscape of stigma and silence, and comes in the wake of the Global Summit to End Sexual Violence in Conflict, which was held in London last June. The week will bring representatives together from key public institutions, civil society organisations, academia, and the media to increase awareness of the prevention and consequences of sexual violence in conflict, as well as the need to support survivors effectively.

The beginning of the week is marked by today’s launch of the ‘International Protocol on the Documentation and Investigation of Sexual Violence in Conflict’ in BiH. Funded by the UK government, and the product of two years’ work by a range of experts, the document was presented at the Global Summit to End Sexual Violence in June 2014, and is seen as an essential step towards achieving the Initiative’s aims. By introducing international standards for the documentation and investigation of sexual violence, in addition to the support of survivors, the Protocol aims to strengthen the prosecution of sexual violence in conflicts, thus increasing the prospects of successful convictions. As such, it provides practical advice on preventing, documenting, and responding to sexual violence, including checklists, templates for data collection, and sample questions for fieldworkers.

With such a strong focus within the protocol on developing the capacity of local individuals, organisations, and institutions, a focal point of the launch event in the Parliament of BiH will be the official presentation of three separate training modules by local experts. The future delivery of these modules will serve as the basis for improving the work of judges and prosecutors, war crimes investigators, and the armed forces in BiH, and are intended to help them overcome some of the many challenges that they face in preventing and responding to sexual violence as a crime under international law.

An emphasis on encouraging and developing local ownership of the protocol will also see the Post-Conflict Research Center (PCRC), Medica Zenica, and the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) host a series of local events in Mostar, Banja Luka, Brčko, and Zenica over the course of the awareness week. At each of these events, a representative of the British Embassy will introduce how the protocol can be of use to local organisations, following which there will be a film screening and an accompanying panel discussion amongst survivors, local victim associations, NGOs working on the issue of sexual violence. Organisations from surrounding areas of each location will also have the opportunity to promote their work and engage with the vide variety of stakeholders in attendance.

Such involvement of grassroots actors is of obvious necessity to the Protocol’s long-term aim of strengthening local organisations’ capacity to work with victims of sexual violence in conflict, but of equal importance is the wider engagement of the general public. The silence that surrounds these issues in Bosnia is such that they are rarely discussed either amongst communities or through the media, leaving most people uninformed about the experiences of those who suffered sexual crimes in conflict and the lack of support that they have since endured. Indeed, despite the initiative shining a spotlight on these issues within BiH earlier this year, public awareness remains particularly low. The devastating floods that swept through the region in May hindered much of the work planned with local communities in advance of the Global Summit.

Thus, in addition to careful co-ordination with media agencies across BiH, a series of outreach activities throughout the PSVI week will attempt to inform, involve and change the attitudes of the wider public. For example, the photographic exhibition “My Body: A War Zone”, created by PROOF: Media for Social Justice in collaboration with PCRC, featuring the stories and portraits of women survivors of rape from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nepal, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Colombia, will be unveiled in Sarajevo and at each of the local events.

PCRC and Kriterion Cinema will also host a Women’s Film Series in Sarajevo, featuring a variety of films that explore survivors’ experiences of sexual violence in conflict, the stigmatism and socio-economic challenges that they’ve faced since, and the shortcomings and challenges of existing responses. The film series will include screenings of “I Came to Testify” and “War Redefined” of PBS’ Women War and Peace documentary series; Unprotected and Uspomene 677 produced by PCRC; Angelina Jolie’s In the Land of Blood and Honey; and Duhovi Proslosti produced by the ICTY. The photographic exhibition “The Story of Hasija” by Velija Hasanbegović, which features one Bosnian woman’s plight after surviving rape camp detainment, will also be unveiled as a part of the film series event.

Tim Bidey is a Project Manager for the Post-Conflict Research Center in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He is also currently completing an MA in Post-war Recovery Studies.

The ‘International Protocol on the Documentation and Investigation of Sexual Violence in Conflict’ was launched in the Parliament of Bosnia-Herzegovina on 19th November 2014. 

This article was originally published by Insight on Conflict and is available by clicking here

The post Overcoming Stigma Of Sexual Violence In Bosnia-Herzegovina – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Spain: PM Rajoy Says Catalonia Defict Reason For Concern

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At the end of the weekly government control session in the Lower House of Parliament, Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stressed that Artur Mas has become the regional president of only part of the people of Catalonia. From the podium in the Lower House, Rajoy claimed that “we have overcome the economic crisis” and “are on the right track, although it is clear that there are still many things to do”.

According to Rajoy, “since 2010, when Mr Mas won his first elections, we have been holding elections and referendums non-stop”. They are now announcing a new call for elections, Rajoy added, and this is “very worrying because the main priority at this time is to tackle the economic crisis”.

The Prime Minister also reiterated his commitment to defending the Constitution, adding that despite everything, “the regional government’s suppliers will continue to be paid, public services will continue to be provided and they will continue to be financed and the government will continue to settle the debt maturities of the Regional Government of Catalonia”.

In response to the Spokesperson for the UPyD [Union, Progress & Democracy] political party, Rosa Díez, the Prime Minister argued that he acted with “proportionality” in relation to the referendum called on 9 November.

According to Rajoy, “this referendum was not held, among other things, because I lodged an appeal with the Constitutional Court, which unanimously ruled that it could not be held”.

In relation to the economic situation and in response to the MP for the Socialist Party, Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister stressed out that “we are on the right track, although it is clear that there are still many things to do”.

Rajoy commented that “we have turned this situation around and have now enjoyed five consecutive quarters of growth and are the fastest growing country in Europe. We are creating jobs – 550,000 in the last six months – and we have reduced the public deficit year after year”. The situation in Spain, according to Rajoy, is very different to three years ago, when the country was in recession and 3.4 million jobs had been shed.

On another note, the Prime Minister criticized the decision taken by the Socialist leader to propose halting the reform of Article 135 of the Spanish Constitution, a reform which was agreed back in 2011 and which was fundamental “for the economic recovery of our country”.

The post Spain: PM Rajoy Says Catalonia Defict Reason For Concern appeared first on Eurasia Review.

PFLP Soul-Searching: The Rise And Fall Of Palestine’s Socialists – OpEd

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The PFLP is back in the headlines after a recent attack in Jerusalem, raising questions about the current relevance of the group

When news reports alleged that the two cousins behind the Jerusalem synagogue attack on 18 November were affiliated with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a level of confusion reigned. Why the PFLP? Why now?

The attack killed five Israelis and wounded others. It was, to a degree, an expected addition to a violent episode caused by police-sanctioned right-wing violence and abuse targeting the Palestinian population of the illegally occupied East Jerusalem. Much of the violence targeting Palestinians is systematic, involving severe restrictions on Palestinian movement, targeting houses of worship, and nightly attacks by Jewish mobs assailing Arabs, or anyone who may be suspected of being one. It also included the hanging, lynching and burning alive of Jerusalem’s Arab residents.

Palestinians responded in kind. But most of their violent responses seemed to be confined to individual acts, compelled by despair, perhaps, but certainly removed from the organized nature of armed-resistance.

Then, Ghassa and Odai Abu Jamal attacked the synagogue. The initial assumption was that the attack was also the work of individuals, before reports began linking them to the PFLP.

Suddenly, the discussion shifted, from the relevance of the attack to the difficult situation in Jerusalem (both cousins were Jerusalemites) to something entirely different pertaining to the Marxist group’s current standing between two dominant forces: a Fatah-led government in Ramallah, whose leadership has long-abandoned armed struggle, and an Islamic-dominated resistance groups led by Hamas in Gaza. Is the PFLP carving a new place for itself in anticipation of a third intifada? Or was the attack an anomaly? Was it ordered by the group’s core leadership? And where is the PFLP heading anyway?

To begin with, there can be no easy answers. In fact, the PFLP’s own muddled responses suggest an existing tussle within the group, if not politically, at least intellectually. Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, the movement’s militant arm issued a fiery statement, but refrained from taking responsibility.

It was a clear attempt at walking a fine line between revolutionary language and a politically cautious discourse. It neither took responsibility for the attack, nor did it declare the attackers to be its members. Instead, it merely conveyed the Israeli accusation that the assailants were affiliated with the PFLP.

Another statement declared the attackers as heroes, yet still took no responsibility.

Although some media outlets claimed that the PFLP has accepted responsibility, no source managed to pinpoint with any degree of certainty the group’s official stance.

There is more than one context through which this issue can be discussed, but most urgent among them is PFLP’s own identity, incessant decline in political relevance and the unavoidable intellectual conflict which has dogged the group since its formation by Marxist Arab nationalist Christian leader Dr. George Habash in 1967. What was an expected soul-searching of one of Palestine’s most progressive political movements starting in the 1960s throughout the 80s, became a political crisis necessitated by the decline of its strongest supporters, the Soviet Union and the East European bloc, and the signing of the Oslo accords a few years later.

The inception of the PFLP, formed from several progressive Arab nationalist groups, in 1967 was a necessary retort to the failure of traditional Arab armies to fight Israel. The resounding Arab defeat in the 1967 war (known as Naksa, or the setback) ushered in the rise of an exclusively Palestinian political narrative, with, at times, desperate militant tactics to bring attention to the plight of the Palestinian people.

The PFLP, which later declared itself a Marxist-Leninist organization, was still committed to pan-Arabism. It linked the liberation of Palestine to the loftier goal of liberating oppressed classes throughout the Arab world from corrupt, oppressive regimes.

Although it can be argued that the PFLP’s political ambitions by far exceeded its popularity on the ground, it has enjoyed disproportionate influence over the resistance discourse, partly because of the notable intellect and foresight of its founder, but also because of its early attempts at armed struggle outside the confines of Arab governments.

Although the PFLP is often referenced in international media for its aircraft hijackings, mostly to free Palestinian political prisoners, its impact on the current course of armed resistance is much more profound.  In the late 1960s and throughout the 70s, it made its presence felt in Gaza, at a time that Fatah was failing to establish a stronghold in the crowded and impoverished strip. Many of its members were killed fighting or assassinated, and others were captured to be imprisoned indefinitely.

However, with time, disconnect grew between the group’s striking rhetoric and the harsh reality in Palestine. While Arab nationalism was waning, the socialist bloc was quickly collapsing, leaving the PFLP to face difficult questions. And when Yasser Arafat signed the Oslo accords, the PFLP’s dilemma grew more complicated.

By then, the PFLP was no longer the second most influential Palestinian party, as has been the case for many years. Hamas, although operating outside the structure of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), offered more relatable language and enjoyed a more comprehensive grassroots presence.

Like Hamas, but certainly unlike Fatah, PFLP remained largely immune from open internal conflicts, at least since the early splits it suffered in the late 1960s. In 2000, Habash gracefully stepped down, and Abu Ali Mustafa took over. The new leader returned to Ramallah with the understanding that the PFLP had changed its stance regarding its advocacy of a one state solution and its subtle agreement to the phased liberation model offered by Fatah.

Abu Ali Mustafa, himself another erudite intellectual was assassinated by Israel in August 2001, soon after his return. The new leader, Ahmad Sa’adat spent 4 years in a Palestinian Authority prison, before being kidnapped by Israeli forces in 2006 to be held in solitary confinement in Israel.

Since then, the two-state solution discourse was abandoned, and occasional return to arms by PFLP fighters is registered somewhere in the West Bank. However, the only consistent and organized PFLP militant action persisted in Gaza.

For years, the PFLP remained hostage to far-reaching ambition and radical language on one hand, and a reality that forced its members to adjust to an unpleasant status quo and disorganised action on the other. In 2006, the group won four percent of the popular vote in Palestine, merely three of the legislative council’s 132 seats. It refused to enter into a coalition government with Hamas, which could have arguably reduced the isolation of the elected government, and it failed, although it tried, to construct a left-wing bloc involving other socialist and communist groups.

Without strong backers outside Palestine, and fragmented political discourse that is divided between dominant Hamas and Fatah factions, the PFLP continues to be caught in its own internal struggle.

Still adhering to the fighting spirit of a socialist, militant and radical movement, the PFLP is also forced to co-exist within a corrupt political structure; opposing it, while benefiting from it at the same time. Many NGOs are loosely affiliated with PFLP members, which gives the group a degree of physical presence, but deprives it from the chance to openly confront Mahmoud Abbas operated political apparatus in Ramallah.

It matters little whether the cousins who attacked the synagogue in Jerusalem were affiliated with the PFLP or not; the repeated muddled statements by the group – justifying the attack, explaining it, owning it and disowning it all at once – matters more. This confusion is becoming symbiotic of the PFLP following the signing of Oslo. And while there are those who employ clever language to maintain the group’s radical status, NGO perks and socialist prestige, others expect a more serious discussion of what the PFLP is and what it stands for after two decades of political failure, of which the PFLP, like Fatah and Hamas, should also be held accountable.

The post PFLP Soul-Searching: The Rise And Fall Of Palestine’s Socialists – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Ralph Nader: Thanksgiving For Social Scientists: Wish It Were – OpEd

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I wish there could be a Thanksgiving for the applied bounty that could come from the hundreds of thousands of political scientists, economists, sociologists, psychologists, and anthropologists.

I am referring especially to those social scientists who are full-time, tenured professors at universities, colleges and community colleges who are not indentured to commercial moonlighting. Those of us who look for ways to get things done for the betterment of society seek such contributions from people who spend their days studying what is happening in our country, and to whom. Other than a few minor exceptions, this union has not occurred.

Nearly fifty years ago, a leading administrative law professor Kenneth Culp Davis–interested in governance–wrote a controversial article bewailing the near total absence of any useful contributions in this field by political scientists.

Here is a brief list of contemporary needs that could benefit from academic specialists who are concerned and knowledgeable about our country’s shortcomings and could know how to get things moving.

1. The lack of civic motivation to show up and do something about wrongs widely agreed upon–all over America, a tiny percentage of engaged citizens face the same problem. They can’t get people to show up at the polls, at town council meetings, or at rallies and marches. Maybe the psychologists could try their hand at that one. Look at the back of a $2 bill and see the drawing from 1776–showing up is half of democracy.

2. The need for proper yardsticks by which to measure abuses of power–power structures control these metrics so that they can control debate, inflict censorship and depress people’s expectations. Some economists have offered ways to measure economic progress–e.g. the condition of children–as alternatives to what the business economists have structured for the corporatists. Much more needs to be done to “yardstick” the qualities of economies in order to expose better the disconnect between GDP growth and people’s well-being.

3. Ways to reach and motivate enlightened billionaires to provide the water for the already fertile soil of just changes–some of these enlightened super-rich have told me they have little idea of how to effectively put their money to work for justice, so they continue giving to charities. A society that has more justice needs less charity. Also, how about some functional insight on the majority of super-rich who are, shall we say, tight with their money? Addressing the parsimony of the plutocrats invites an inter-disciplinary action plan stimulated by theorists and empiricized by the applied wings of these disciplines.

4. How can small but effective civic groups be started in the thousands to fill the widespread imbalances of power in our deteriorating society? An example of one of these groups would be full time Congress Watchdogs with part time volunteers in every congressional district to lift the yoke off 535 men and women, most of whom are using their authority to shoehorn corporate power over Washington and driving our country into the ground. The Right calls this crony capitalism; the Left calls it corporate welfare or the corporate state.

5. How do you counteract the periodic war mania that the warmongers fan in our country–think the 2003 invasion of Iraq and other unlawful displays of brute force foreign policies? The manufactured, bloody Iraq war was based on Bush/Cheney lies and deceptions which led to over 300 retired high military, national security and diplomatic officials speaking out against the pending invasion. These included the two main security advisers to the first President Bush, James Baker and Brent Scowcroft. All this was well known to applied social scientists (they’re not all theorists). Imagine them figuring out how to band such a group together with overtly anti-war critics such as mega-billionaire George Soros. Such a well-endowed secretariat for these highly credible, retired leaders could have widely exposed the falsifications, jolted Congress and the media and stopped the drive to this ruinous war that is erupting again in a brutal civil conflict.

6. When overdue reform movements get underway, how can sociologists help with suggestions to sustain their momentum so they do not burn out? I’m thinking of Occupy Wall Street and its theme of standing up to gross inequalities.

7. Recently, the media watch group, FAIR, published data showing the enormous bias of the national media based on who they invite to speak about U.S. military intervention. For example, on the recent question of military options in Syria and Iraq, the “high-profile Sunday talk shows” had 89 guests. Only one guest, Nation editor Katrina Vanden Heuvel, in FAIR’s words, “could be coded as an anti-war guest.” The rest came from the usual militaristic politicians, like the ubiquitous Senator John McCain (who recently noted his 101 appearances just on Face the Nation) and war hawks from Washington “think tanks” or publications like The Standard. With all the multi-disciplinary communications specialists, some well-connected, in academe, can’t some come up with a strategy to change this brazen exploitation of the public airwaves?

Maybe some academics think such practical immersion is not intellectually challenging or career advancing. Recall Albert Einstein who once said that physics is simple compared to politics.

Many social scientists are employed or retained by corporations to “get things done” for them. That’s paying work backed by business power and money. But given the present cultures and mind-sets of social scientists, I doubt whether, absent these pre-existing infrastructures, they could come up with practical answers even if the civic culture could afford them.

The exceptions need more publicity. For example, professor and biologist Barry Commoner brilliantly organized scientists to press the government toward a test ban treaty and highlighted the radioactive fallout of atomic bomb testing on the American people.

Professor Paul Wellstone, starting penniless and at zero in the polls, teamed up with maverick political consultant Bill Hillsman to win a U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota in 1990.

Educational anthropologist Penny Owen for years singlehandedly taught middle-school students, who were considered very difficult learners, through the use of theatre and other self-actuating activities to discover their inner talents and motivations.

Economist Robert Pollin of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, has helped organizations advance arguments for raising the minimum wage and for instituting a small tax on stock trades.

Besides giving us insights, surveys and findings, can more social scientists like these few but important examples change some routines to provide strategies, tactics, and solutions that can more practically flow from their knowledge to action?

The post Ralph Nader: Thanksgiving For Social Scientists: Wish It Were – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Origins Of The Palestine Mandate – Analysis

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By Adam Garfinkle

Like everything else historical, the Palestine Mandate has a history with a chronological beginning, a middle, and, in this case, an end. From a strictly legal point of view, that beginning was September 29, 1923, and the end was midnight, May 14, 1948, putting the middle expanse at just short of 25 years.

But also like everything else historical, it is no simple matter to determine either how far back in the historical tapestry to go in search of origins, or how far to lean history into its consequences up to and speculatively beyond the present time. These decisions depend ultimately on the purposes of an historical inquiry and, whatever historical investigators may say, all such inquiries do have purposes, whether recognized, admitted, and articulated or not. A.J.P. Taylor’s famous insistence that historical analysis has no purpose other than enlightened storytelling, rendering the entire enterprise much closer to literature than to social science, is interesting precisely because it is such an outlier perspective among professional historians.

Well that it should be, for without some purpose in mind, information cannot become knowledge. Genuine knowledge, however is precious because it is so rare, a truth illustrated by the fact that, when it comes to Israel and the Arabs, purposes of various descriptions are barely suppressible. Indeed, history has become a tool in contending partisan narratives, producing supposed historical accounts that are not only largely at odds with one another, but that usually make for very bad history reckoned by professional standards concerning rules of evidence. Unfortunately, there is so much interest in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and its Palestinian-Israeli subset, that skewed histories have by now acquired generational imprimatur, having been passed down over the decades with an air of surety so thick as to be mightily resistant to fumigation.

Be that as it may, genuine knowledge of history is possible, and knowledge about the Palestine Mandate is no exception. Genuine knowledge, however, is invariably complex. The intellectual marketplace is full of come-ons purporting to explain complicated realities by dint of a single “silver bullet” factor: economic relationships; the realist compulsions of geopolitics; the role of “great men”; the trump of partisan politics; varieties of cultural determinism; and more besides. They are all purveyors of false hopes, yet each plea on behalf of the simple speaks to a necessary element in a complex whole. Yes, money matters, as does power, place, personality, politics, and the generally unselfconscious templates rolling about in people’s heads inherited from the past through the subtle biases of language and its allusive metaphors. So, of course, does the wider context in which any history plays out matter. Certainly in the case of the origins and life of the Palestine Mandate, all these factors play an explanatory role.

THE “WHY?” OF THE PALESTINE MANDATE

One way to get a handle on complexity in the case of the Palestine Mandate is to organize thinking around three questions: Why?, How?, and, somewhat surprisingly perhaps, Where?

If one asks “why” did the Palestine Mandate come into being as a British trust of sorts, along with the other British and French mandates that attended the conclusion of the World War, one immediately runs into a wider context composed of an improbable mix of the ordinary and the extraordinary. The ordinary is that it has been common practice since time immemorial for the victor in warfare to seize spoils from the vanquished, and those spoils have prominently included real estate. The extraordinary is that by the time of the Great War the normative environment had changed in the West to the point where old-fashioned imperial means of absorbing such acquisitions had begun to leave a sour taste on the moral taste buds of the ruling elites, especially in Britain and the United States, and to a lesser extent in France and elsewhere on the Continent. The Great War therefore could not be fought merely as another iteration of standard imperial competition; it required at the least a patina of liberal nobility insofar as its aims were concerned. The entry of the New-World idealist United States into the conflict in 1917, with the moralist Woodrow Wilson at its bowsprit speaking of “a war to end all wars”, magnified the necessity for a new rationale for the postwar expropriation and reassignment of great power territories.

The shift in the Western normative environment was itself a Janus-like affair. On its one side was the spirit of a new internationalism, a dimension illuminated by the late-19th century advance of propositions such as the Inter-Parliamentary Union, founded in 1889, the Arbitration movement that sought world peace through world law, and the establishment of international governance institutions such as the Universal Postal Union and the International Labour Organisation. Part and parcel of the liberal Whig interpretation of historical progress put into operation, these developments culminated early in the Great War into a movement to establish what became the League of Nations. Lord Bryce in Great Britain, and William Howard Taft with his 1915 proposal of a League to Enforce Peace, made the impulse mainly an Anglospheric one—and indeed it was another English speaker, Jan Smuts of British South Africa, who drafted the text of the League’s famed Covenant, Article 22 of which specified for the first time the idea of mandates as way-stations to self-determination for peoples living under colonial rule. Thanks largely to the experience of the war, in France and elsewhere in Europe the idea of a League of Nations, and of the concept of a mandate, had made accelerated headway among the cognoscenti.

The other face of the Janus concerns exactly this idea of self-determination. The global ethos had shifted against the legitimacy of the imperial principle—at least insofar as it pertained to the soon-to-be defeated empires of Hohenzollern Germany, Hapsburg Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Turkey.  (Little did most British and French, Portuguese, Spanish, and Belgian statesmen realize at the time that the change would ultimately undermine their own colonial enterprises in due course.) No longer could legitimate state authority impose a dominant ethno-linguistic culture on others. Not internationalism but nationalism, defined in ethno-linguistic terms, was thought a progressive ideal at the end of the 19th century and into the beginning of the 20th. It was based at its root on the ideal of the nation-state, a normative term asserting that states should be defined in terms of national majorities. (It is a term that has become corrupted in common American usage over the years into a synonym for state or nation or country, even though these three words are themselves not synonyms but, as any dictionary will make clear, mean three different things.)

Consequently, the League of Nations, brought into being by the Treaty of Versailles in 1919, created a system of mandates for dealing with the results of dispossessing and deconstructing the aforementioned three empires. (It seemed not to occur to any senior Allied leader at the time that removing major pillars from the structure of the Concert of Europe might be a bad idea.) There were to be new nation-states, mainly carved out of Austria-Hungary, and three classes of mandates: A, for peoples needing but modest tutelage to be brought up to the standards for national independence; B, for those needing more time and aid; and C, for those, for various reasons, unlikely to qualify for independence. Class A mandates were assigned to France for Syria and to Britain for Mesopotamia; Germany’s African colonies, to be divided between France and Britain, merited Class B status; its small Pacific island colonies fell into Class C.

BUT WHAT OF PALESTINE?

Palestine was special. Since the November 1917 Balfour Declaration, specifying that Palestine was to be vouchsafed as a national home for the Jewish people, was written into the Palestine Mandate by unanimous agreement among the victorious Allied and Associated powers, the national majority principle needed to be set aside. In 1919 Palestine lacked precise boundaries—of which more in a moment—but even so it was clear that Arabic-speakers outnumbered Jews by a large majority. Since Palestine was to be capable of absorbing Jews from all parts of Europe and the world beyond in accord with the Zionist project—the national movement of the Jewish people—Palestine, it was generally assumed by the British, the Americans, and the Zionists alike, would become independent once the country had a Jewish majority that would, presumably, purchase enough private lands to sustain that majority population.

It was not a foregone conclusion during the War that a mandate for Palestine would pass to Great Britain. Lord Balfour himself, then Foreign Secretary, mooted the idea of an American mandate. President Wilson sent two men to geographical Syria to learn what the locals preferred, and these two men—Henry Churchill King and Richard R. Crane—reported in what became known as the King-Crane Commission Report that the local Arabs thought poorly of being ruled by foreigners of any kind. They believed, after all, that the British had promised them independence after the war in payment for the anti-Ottoman uprising that ultimately aided the British military effort to conquer the area (and made the late Peter O’Toole, playing the starring role of T.E. Lawrence, famous).

In any event, the idea of an American mandate faded fast before British military and Foreign Office entreaties to the War Cabinet that Palestine ought to be British. The geopolitics of firming up the route from the metropole to the jewel of the Empire—India—came strongly to bear. Besides, the political set-to of 1919-20 in the U.S. Senate that resulted in the U.S. unwillingness to join in the League of Nations left most Americans of the view that the mandate system was just a masquerade for old-fashioned British and French imperialism, not substantially altered from the already infamous secret 1916 Sykes-Picot plan to dismember the Ottoman Empire—rendered not so secret by war’s end by the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and Moscow’s leakage of the plan, map and all, to public view. This was true enough, but not entirely so, or else the extrusions of internationalist idealism that festooned the immediate postwar period—the Washington Naval Conference, the spirit of Locarno, and the Kellogg-Briand Pact, for example—would never have come to pass.

Of course, neither Palestine nor Syria nor Iraq (then called Mesopotamia) would have been subjects for mandates had the Ottoman Empire not entered the World War and been defeated and dismembered as a result. This was not inevitable; contingency in human affairs is real, else the study of history would indeed be pointless. But it did happen.

For most of the 19th century, the strongest and richest member of the Concert of Europe, Great Britain, allied with Istanbul against Russian and Austrian encroachments on Turkey. But the pro-Ottoman tilt of Britain’s offshore balancer role became attenuated after 1882 with the de facto British occupation of Egypt. Thereafter, Germany courted Turkey and, in the Ottoman Empire’s efforts to modernize and reform, Germany became its first partner. The educational and engineering exchanges between the two empires matured, their strategic cooperation, meanwhile, epitomized by both the Hejaz Railway and the prospective Berlin-to-Baghdad railway. The latter was clearly designed to help the Ottomans move troops and materiel into their Arab provinces should Britain ever march against them from Egypt—which is, of course, precisely what happened during the World War.

Enver Pasha, the de facto ruler of the Empire, might have thought better of joining Germany and Austria. But he was a dedicated Germanophile and, moreover, he wagered that if the Central Powers won the war, Ottoman Turkey would win big. It might regain Egypt from Britain. It might regain territory lost to Russia in earlier wars, and push the Russians further from the coveted Dardanelles over which they hungrily loomed. As to total defeat and dismemberment, Enver Pasha simply could not imagine a war of a length and destructive power such as to cause calamity on a fatal scale, for, after all, the Ottoman Empire was enjoying increasing success at reforming, modernizing, and growing stronger. In that failure of imagination he was of course one of a great many.

Nor was he obviously wrong to throw in with the Central powers. The Ottoman Empire fought well and did not collapse; that fate, rather, was Russia’s, whose Czar had popularized the epithet “sick man of Europe” for the Ottoman Empire. Indeed, the Allies failed to impose their military terms on Turkey during the war, and a post-Versailles Greco-British military effort lost to a reeling but reconstituted Turkish army. Thus did the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres become a dead letter, the prospective Sykes-Picot divisions with it, giving way to the more favorable (for the Turks) Treaty of Lausanne in 1923. Improbable as it may seem, this affected the timing of the Palestine Mandate and hence its territorial definition, too, as we shall see in a moment.

THE “HOW?” AND “WHERE?” OF THE PALESTINE MANDATE

So much for the “Why?”; what of the “How?” Once the idea of mandates became ensconced in the postwar plan for a League of Nations, it fell to the victorious Allies to assign and define those mandates. The Allies supposedly acted as agents on behalf of the Council of the League, but of course in truth the British and French governments did no such thing: They assigned the mandates to themselves as they had privately agreed, and the fact that those assignments yielded a result not wildly different from the Sykes-Picot disposition of the Ottoman Arab lands lent credence to the brow-folded perspective of the Senate. These matters were discussed formally at San Remo in April 1920 and further redacted through the Anglo-French Convention in December 1920. Put in such historically rounded-off language, these dates suggested a simple, direct, uncontested translation from prewar to wartime to postwar territorial settlement. Nothing could be further from the truth.

While the British and French were allies during the war, they remained competitors both commercially and colonially. The French suspected that the British were trying to deprive them of their promised preeminent position in Syria, where they had deep historical, cultural, and commercial interests with roots all the way back to the First Crusade. The agent of that dispossession, Paris feared, was one Faisal bin Hussein bin Ali al-Hashemi—namely, one of the sons of the Sherif of Mecca with whom Sir Henry McMahon of the British Government had held a secret and highly consequential correspondence starting in 1915.

The correspondence, and its attendant map, promised the Hashemites, as prime agent for the Arabs, a vast independent state come war’s end in reward for the Arab Revolt. Whether this state was to include or exclude what became Palestine, at the time still without agreed borders, became the stuff of legendary debate within and beyond the British establishment. (McMahon himself wrote in 1937 that it excluded it.) In the event, the Revolt certainly helped General Edmund Allenby conquer Palestine (but so did the Jewish spy ring run by Aaron Aaronsohn, called Nili). When Faisal set to redeem the British pledge to his father somewhat unilaterally and prematurely by proclaiming himself King of Syria in Damascus in March 1920, the French suspected intrigue. At the same time, postwar French governments rose and fell with alarming frequency, resulting in a merry-go-round of foreign ministers and senior staffs. Yes, whether it is trump or not, politics does intrude.

In truth there was no British intrigue to dispossess the French of Syria. What there was instead was a multidimensional perplexity descending on Whitehall. The British had in hand the Mandate for Mesopotamia, which had been drawn onto a map by Sir Percy Cox during 1920, with the aid of the redoubtable Gertrude Bell (not all the “great men” were male). Cox cobbled together this mandate, for what was soon to be called Iraq, from three separate Ottoman provinces, all of them backwaters that had been systematically under- or misgoverned for centuries. The British had no idea what they were going to do with Iraq; the Exchequer was broke from the war, excluding expensive direct rule, and no obvious indirect ruling methodology seemed at hand. Moreover, the matter fell to quarrel between senior British officials in London and those in Delhi, where what amounted to a separate Foreign Office held sway.

As to Palestine, things were even more complicated. Faisal had gone on to Damascus without explicit support from the British military, which temporarily ruled the entire area of geographical Syria. General Allenby had divided the land into three Occupied Enemy Territory Administration (OETA) zones, but the borders of these zones existed only on paper and barely at all in a messy reality. Taken together they implied the borders of Palestine, but in fact only the border to the south, that ran with Egypt, really existed—the result of a 1906 agreement between the British (in Egypt) and the Ottoman Empire that moved the old frontier further from the Suez Canal.

The eastern border, facing toward Iraq across the desert, was unknown, unmarked, and unheard of historically nearly since King Solomon’s time, back when the Kingdom of Moab still existed. It was assumed that the British would take at least indirect responsibility for the vast stretch of desert between the Tigris-Euphrates and the Jordan Rivers, but exactly how, with what legal basis, and exactly where no one knew as of 1919-20. This was called in British official circles at the time the problem of the “Arabian Chapter,” as the archives make clear. The northern border was nearly as indistinct, the Ottoman administrative units having been changeable and territorially ill-defined.

The British political and cultural elite thought they knew where Palestine was. At the time of the Balfour Declaration, the deep Christian Zionist culture of the Anglican elite saw Palestine as it had long been drawn in their Bibles, on a map usually just after the frontispiece, that carved out the domains of the Tribes of Israel and ran, colloquially, “from Dan to Beersheba.” Beersheba was still there, in the south, but after 1906 it no longer defined the southern reaches of the territory. Where was Dan? In what had to have been a mild embarrassment to some rather august and responsible personages, when it came right down to it no one really knew.

It was one thing at San Remo to assign mandates and another at the Anglo-French Convention to fill in some of the bilateral blanks. But it was something else again to draw borders for states or would-be states and create a legal basis for what went on governmentally inside of them. Meanwhile, the military situation on the ground, which gave the British dominion and dealt the French mostly out of the picture, the tumult of French politics, the sudden expulsion of Faisal from Damascus by the French military in July 1920, the importunings of the Zionists and the Arabs—who at first seemed to support one another’s ambitions only to shift gears in short order—and the ruminations of British accountants and lawyers turned the whole dilemma into a royal pain in the posterior.

To deal with the fixing of the border between the British Mandate for Palestine and the French Mandate for Syria a border commission was established in December 1920, called the Newcombe-Paulet Commission. This commission was the target of surgical “explanatory” strikes by the Zionists, led by one Pinhas Rutenberg, whose concern was mainly hydrological, and in this the Zionists were supported by the British Mandate’s first governor, Sir Herbert Samuel, and by the new British Colonial Secretary, Winston Churchill. The Newcombe-Paulet Commission ended up changing the provisional December 1920 lines, in turn derived roughly from the OETA boundaries, in what may seem small but were actually consequential ways—mainly in the favor of Palestine.

What about the eastern boundary? In the aftermath of Faisal’s expulsion from Damascus, the British had already begun to treat what became the Emirate of Transjordan as a separate administrative entity that would, at some point or other, need to have defined boundaries with Syria, Iraq, and the Kingdom of Nedj as well as with Palestine. In 1921, in Jerusalem, Churchill drove to unified detail what had been percolating in pieces in British thinking for some months: Faisal would be shipped to Baghdad to become King of Iraq, one of his brothers, Abdallah, who had tried to race to his rescue when the French attacked and was now stranded between Aqaba and Damascus east of the Jordan River, would become Emir of Transjordan. To solve the Arabian Chapter legal problem of British rule in Transjordan having no basis, Churchill joined Transjordan to the Palestine Mandate for the sole purpose of separating it, stipulating as he did that the provisions of the Balfour Declaration regarding the Jewish national home would not apply to areas east of the River. He then later enjoined Samuel to draw the Palestine-Transjordan border, more or less at the last minute, so that the package could be submitted to the League. Alas, those legal sticklers insisted that the mandates could not be submitted and go into effect until they had borders.

The Churchill White Paper, as it became known, dates from June 1922. The Newcombe-Paulet Commission’s work was finished by February 1922, but it was not formalized (with a few last-minute caveats, one concerning Banias, one of the three headwaters of the Jordan River) until March 1923. The entire package could not be deposited into the League until the signing of the Treaty of Lausanne, which provided the legal basis for separating the territories from the defunct Ottoman Empire: that took place on September 29, 1923.

Thus, by the time the Palestine Mandate came into effect, Transjordan had been summarily joined and quickly separated from it in order to establish a legal rationale for the existence of Transjordan—not as a mandate, but as a supposedly independent entity that was, all but formally, a British preserve. Transjordan became a formally independent kingdom in 1946.  Transjordan’s borders with Syria, Iraq and what, after 1932, became the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, were all drawn after September 1923, but since Transjordan was not a mandate these matters did not concern the League of Nations.

Others will fill in what became of the Mandate and how it ended nearly 25 years later.  Suffice it to say that because the Arabs rejected the Mandate on account of the presence of the Balfour Declaration in its preamble, the vast array of subordinate government functions in actually running Palestine lay open exclusively to the Zionists. So long as the British government remained true to the promise of the Balfour Declaration, which it did at least until 1937 and arguably until 1939, the mandate served as an institutional incubator for the State of Israel. Its governmental apparatus, its army, its unions, its foreign relations arm, and more all took root during Mandate times. The Arab boycott of the Mandate administration was decisively counterproductive from the Arab point of view. The Mandate came to an end not just because of the Arab-Jewish conflict and violence that erupted in 1936, subsided in 1939, yet continued off and on until after World War II; but also because Palestine’s geopolitical significance to Britain paled with the loss of India in 1947.

THE PROBLEM OF “BULLSHISTORY”

In the face of this enormously complex history, partisans, propagandists, and the preternaturally clueless have fashioned and believed a host of outlandish simplifications. Such is human nature. Palestinians tend to believe that the Mandate was a sinister colonial plot from the start, that the Zionists were in league with and were for practical purposes one with the great devil of Western colonialism. This is untrue. On the other hand, many Zionists and their supporters have believed that the British betrayed the Mandate early and favored the Arab cause all along—the supposed partition of the Mandate in June 1922 being the original sin in this story. This is also untrue.

Revisionist Zionism in particular has peddled the totally ahistorical absurdity that the Balfour Declaration of 1917 came with a map that encompassed all of what is today Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, and Jordan. They will show you this map (or you can find it on the internet without anyone’s help), purporting to be from November 1917, with borders drawn some of which were not laid down and agreed until the early 1930s. This is the basis of the plaint that “Jordan is Palestine”, implying that a Palestinian state “already exists” east of the Jordan River, only its rulers are not Palestinians—the purpose of this proposition being to vouchsafe all of so-called western Palestine to Israel. The Likud Party took this position for most of its existence, only adjusting its views in recent years. In many books and classes the falsehood that Jordan was an original part of the Palestine Mandate, separated unjustly in the 1922 Churchill White Paper, is still common lore. It represents a variety of bullshistory — namely, concocted versions of the historical record shaped to serve a partisan cause.

Finally, though it is not as much ballyhooed, experts know that the changes in the northern and northeastern borders of Palestine between December 1920 and September 1923 have been critical to the history of relations between Israel and Syria ever since 1948-49. Those differences helped define the demilitarized zones that existed between the 1949 armistice agreements and the June 1967 War, and they significantly shaped ultimately unsuccessful peace negotiations between Israel and Syria in more recent years. They will have a role in future negotiations, too, without a doubt—if there are any. If any history leans into the present and future, that of the Palestine Mandate is second to none.

About the author:
Adam Garfinkle, Editor of The American Interest Magazine, served as the principal speechwriter to Secretary of State Colin Powell. He has also been editor of The National Interest and has taught at Johns Hopkins University’s School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS), the University of Pennsylvania, Haverford College and other institutions of higher learning. An alumnus of FPRI, he currently serves on FPRI’s Board of Advisors.

Source:
This article was published at FPRI

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New Experimental Ebola Vaccine Appears Safe

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An experimental vaccine to prevent Ebola virus disease was well-tolerated and produced immune system responses in all 20 healthy adults who received it in a Phase 1 clinical trial conducted by researchers from the National Institutes of Health.

The candidate vaccine, which was co-developed by the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), was tested at the NIH Clinical Center in Bethesda, Maryland.

The interim results are reported online in the New England Journal of Medicine.

“The unprecedented scale of the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has intensified efforts to develop safe and effective vaccines, which may play a role in bringing this epidemic to an end and undoubtedly will be critically important in preventing future large outbreaks,” said NIAID Director Anthony S. Fauci, M.D. “Based on these positive results from the first human trial of this candidate vaccine, we are continuing our accelerated plan for larger trials to determine if the vaccine is efficacious in preventing Ebola infection.”

The candidate NIAID/GSK Ebola vaccine was developed collaboratively by scientists at the NIAID Vaccine Research Center (VRC) and at Okairos, a biotechnology company acquired by GSK. It contains segments of Ebola virus genetic material from two virus species, Sudan and Zaire. The Ebola virus genetic material is delivered by a carrier virus (chimpanzee-derived adenovirus 3 or cAd 3) that causes a common cold in chimpanzees, but causes no illness in humans.

The candidate vaccine does not contain Ebola virus and cannot cause Ebola virus disease.

The trial enrolled volunteers between the ages of 18 and 50. Ten volunteers received an intramuscular injection of vaccine at a lower dose and 10 received the same vaccine at a higher dose. At two weeks and four weeks following vaccination, the researchers tested the volunteers’ blood to determine if anti-Ebola antibodies were generated. All 20 volunteers developed such antibodies within four weeks of receiving the vaccine. Antibody levels were higher in those who received the higher dose vaccine.

The investigators also analyzed the research participants’ blood to learn whether the vaccine prompted production of immune system cells called T cells. A recent study by VRC scientist Nancy J. Sullivan, Ph.D., and colleagues showed that non-human primates inoculated with the candidate NIAID/GSK vaccine developed both antibody and T-cell responses, and that these were sufficient to protect vaccinated animals from disease when they were later exposed to high levels of Ebola virus.

The experimental NIAID/GSK vaccine did induce a T-cell response in many of the volunteers, including production of CD8 T cells, which may be an important part of immune protection against Ebola viruses. Four weeks after vaccination, CD8 T cells were detected in two volunteers who had received the lower dose vaccine and in seven of those who had received the higher dose.

“We know from previous studies in non-human primates that CD8 T cells played a crucial role in protecting animals that had been vaccinated with this NIAID/GSK vaccine and then exposed to otherwise lethal amounts of Ebola virus,” said Julie E. Ledgerwood, D.O., a VRC researcher and the trial’s principal investigator. “The size and quality of the CD8 T cell response we saw in this trial are similar to that observed in non-human primates vaccinated with the candidate vaccine.”

There were no serious adverse effects observed in any of the volunteers, although two people who received the higher dose vaccine did develop a briefly lasting fever within a day of vaccination.

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NASA Probe Finds Impenetrable Barrier In Space Surrounding Earth

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Two donuts of seething radiation that surround Earth, called the Van Allen radiation belts, have been found to contain a nearly impenetrable barrier that prevents the fastest, most energetic electrons from reaching Earth, reports NASA.

According to NASA, the Van Allen belts are a collection of charged particles, gathered in place by Earth’s magnetic field that can wax and wane in response to incoming energy from the sun, sometimes swelling up enough to expose satellites in low-Earth orbit to damaging radiation. The discovery of the drain that acts as a barrier within the belts was made using NASA’s Van Allen Probes, launched in August 2012 to study the region. A paper on these results appeared in Nature magazine.

“This barrier for the ultra-fast electrons is a remarkable feature of the belts,” said Dan Baker, a space scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder and first author of the paper. “We’re able to study it for the first time, because we never had such accurate measurements of these high-energy electrons before.”

Understanding what gives the radiation belts their shape and what can affect the way they swell or shrink helps scientists predict the onset of those changes. Such predictions can help scientists protect satellites in the area from the radiation.

The Van Allen belts were the first discovery of the space age, measured with the launch of a US satellite, Explorer 1, in 1958. In the decades since, scientists have learned that the size of the two belts can change – or merge, or even separate into three belts occasionally. But generally the inner belt stretches from 400 to 6,000 miles above Earth’s surface and the outer belt stretches from 8,400 to 36,000 miles above Earth’s surface.

The Van Allen Probes data show that the inner edge of the outer belt is, in fact, highly pronounced. For the fastest, highest-energy electrons, this edge is a sharp boundary that, under normal circumstances, the electrons simply cannot penetrate.

“When you look at really energetic electrons, they can only come to within a certain distance from Earth,” said Shri Kanekal, the deputy mission scientist for the Van Allen Probes at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland and a co-author on the Nature paper. “This is completely new. We certainly didn’t expect that.”

The team looked at possible causes. They determined that human-generated transmissions were not the cause of the barrier. They also looked at physical causes. Could the very shape of the magnetic field surrounding Earth cause the boundary? Scientists studied but eliminated that possibility. What about the presence of other space particles? This appears to be a more likely cause.

The radiation belts are not the only particle structures surrounding Earth. A giant cloud of relatively cool, charged particles called the plasmasphere fills the outermost region of Earth’s atmosphere, beginning at about 600 miles up and extending partially into the outer Van Allen belt. The particles at the outer boundary of the plasmasphere cause particles in the outer radiation belt to scatter, removing them from the belt.

This scattering effect is fairly weak and might not be enough to keep the electrons at the boundary in place, except for a quirk of geometry: The radiation belt electrons move incredibly quickly, but not toward Earth. Instead, they move in giant loops around Earth. The Van Allen Probes data show that in the direction toward Earth, the most energetic electrons have very little motion at all – just a gentle, slow drift that occurs over the course of months. This is a movement so slow and weak that it can be rebuffed by the scattering caused by the plasmasphere.

This also helps explain why – under extreme conditions, when an especially strong solar wind or a giant solar eruption such as a coronal mass ejection sends clouds of material into near-Earth space – the electrons from the outer belt can be pushed into the usually-empty slot region between the belts.

“The scattering due to the plasmapause is strong enough to create a wall at the inner edge of the outer Van Allen Belt,” said Baker. “But a strong solar wind event causes the plasmasphere boundary to move inward.”

A massive inflow of matter from the sun can erode the outer plasmasphere, moving its boundaries inward and allowing electrons from the radiation belts the room to move further inward too.

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Peru: Indigenous Community Facing Displacement In Lima

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By Maija Susarina*

The community and settlement “Cantagallo” was founded in 2000 by Shipibo migrants from Ucayali and accommodates over 200 families today. The indigenous inhabitants live in a run-down town nearby one of the most dangerous district of Lima called Rímac. The housings are mostly simple wood constructions that let cold and mold enter which can lead to serious health issues. Due to the lack of sanitary installations water runs freely down the sandy hill, thus attracting rats and provoking accidents. Among the inhabitants of Cantagallo domestic violence appears to be regular. Especially women and children, who form the majority of the inhabitants, are highly affected – and according to several Shipibo-women the police does not even show up when a crime is reported in this area.

The situation sounds bad enough but there is a crucial point approaching that will either change the lives of the Shipibo in Cantagallo for the better – or the worse.

Several years ago the plans on Vía Parque Rímac were concluded and the work on a new park for tourists and recreational use that will extend over today’s area of Cantagallo began in 2009.

Today the area around Cantagallo forms a big construction site and the bulldozers get closer to the houses every day. Yet it has only become clear on Sept. 22, 2014 where the community will be moved to. During her visit to Cantagallo on that very day, the present mayoress Susana Villarán announced that the relocation will take place to Campoy, San Juan de Lurigancho. The district situated further away from the city center would be important for the Shipibo women when it comes to selling their art crafts.

The dangers and opportunities of the relocation
The relocation of a community composed mainly of women and children to a safer district would lead to a positive change in the life quality of the migrants. In Cantagallo the criminals from Rímac often come at night to rape the women and steal the belongings of the inhabitants knowing that they do not have to fear the police in this part of town. This poses a major risk on the lives of the women. In the remote district San Juan de Lurigancho the Shipibo would not have to fear as much criminality but living there would also mean longer travelling hours to the city center and more transport expenses.

With a clever and innovative management the new settlement can be even turned into a tourist magnet itself, showing Amazonian art and crafts embedded into an urban and modern lifestyle. In order to develop a small settlement into a point of interest for tourists and locals the area has to be safe. The plans and workshops to boost Cantagallo’s popularity failed in the long run due to the danger posed by the districts surrounding the settlement.

Clean housing and a working sanitary system would additionally improve the living conditions fighting off the spread of diseases which would not only strengthen the health of individuals but also their working positions since they would not call sick as often anymore. This issue should not be underestimated since the specific climate of Lima is very hard to adapt to for the peoples of the Amazonian Ucayali. Many Shipibo hardly bear the cold and humid climate of the winter and get sick frequently.

Despite the advantages the resettlement bears, possible dangers should not be left out of sight. For example, an asymmetrical relocation can disturb the social order that exists in Cantagallo. This might lead to tensions between the inhabitants and a rupture of specific social relations, however, this might also have a positive influence on the social structure of the settlement.

It can be expected that due to corruption and favouritism a few inhabitants might get into a more favorable position leaving the most marginalized of the community behind. The ones to be affected the most would be the inhabitants who have least influence within the community which happen to be single mothers, the young and the old.

The way to Cantagallo

The Shipibo used to live in small communities along the river Ucayali amid the rainforest of Amazonas. They focused their activities on fishing, agriculture and handicraft. However, since the rubber-boom from 1880 to 1940 subsistence farming had become more and more complicated. Not only were the indigenous peoples confronted with pollution of their rivers and extreme deforestation, also market economy had entered the remote region of Ucayali and forests had to yield to coffee, oil palms and other cash crop plantations.

As the indigenous inhabitants of the Amazon rainforest got more and more embedded into the labor market, new needs and necessities have risen. Spreading poverty and discrimination empowered the wish of many indigenous families for education for their offspring. As a consequence many Shipibo — but also other indigenous peoples — men and women migrated to big cities in Ucayali in order to find work to support their families and to pay the education expenses for their children.

Women who normally learn to sew kené (typical Shipibo geometric pattern) and create earrings and other traditional handicraft at young age went to big cities like Pucallpa in order to sell their products but the big cities were soon overrun by indigenous markets while the tourists preferred to travel to other parts of Peru. Still in need to support their families some Shipibo men and women decided to try their luck in the capital and founded the community and settlement called Cantagallo in 2000. It has been growing ever since.

Upon arrival in the capital there were not many free places left nearby the city center and so the Shipibo had to occupy a hill that was a former waste site. Simple wooden houses were erected and the community grew evolving own social structures and openly enhancing its origins from Ucayali. In 2008 Cantagallo opened the first intercultural and bilingual educational institution in Shipibo and Spanish.

The megaproject and the minority

The relocation has been the subject of many negotiations and meetings in the last years, yet only unclear, diffuse bits of information about future district and housing were circulating in Cantagallo. The only fact was that there were no facts. There were neither contracts, nor clear information about the relocation within the settlement. The inhabitants did know they would have to move but not where, when or how. They could not exert any influence on the situation.

The megaproject Vía Parque Rímac was sealed with an investment of US$703 million in 2009. The Shipibo in Cantagallo were told they could design their own housing and with the help of an architect a draft of the new settlement with small houses for the families was elaborated. The houses were situated in a line that represented the body of the snake Anaconda with the main plaza forming the head. Anaconda is a sacred animal of knowledge for the Shipibo and building a settlement according to the body of the snake would only express their worldview. The draft has been developed years ago and ever since no one has come to consult the inhabitants of Cantagallo on their future housing but only to announce the latest news on the relocation. The information was often proclaimed by unidentified people without any documents or proof.

The announced relocation to San Juan de Lurigancho will have to take place soon not only because the soil under Cantagallo is getting carried away by bulldozers. On Jan. 1, 2015, a new administration will enter to the Municipality of Lima. The mayoress Villarán lost the Oct. 5 elections against Luis Castañeda Lossio who ruled Lima between 2003 and 2010.

The Shipibo had little influence on the situation but now it might change. Only when the houses in Campoy are constructed will the Shipibo leave Cantagallo according to its inhabitants. So far there are no buildings standing. However, some are quite positive: “Now the only thing missing is the contract on the land and then we will get new housings and move there and everything will get better!,” exclaimed Olga Morí Díaz from Cantagallo.

The new settlement might lead to more marginalization and higher social vulnerability or to an improvement, depending on how the officials will settle this matter and involve the community itself in decisions for example regarding the housing. Thus the Shipibo once again pack their belongings in order to move away from the place they chose, displaced by people who overpower them economically, symbolically or with force as it has been so frequent in their recent history. Nevertheless, even after 14 years in grey Lima, the optimism brought along from Ucayali still prevails.

*Maija Susarina has a B.A. in Social and Cultural Anthropology from the Free University of Berlin and now attends M.A. studies at the same university. She did her internship at Comunicaciones Aliadas during the second semester of 2013.

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Tunisia: Nation Prepares For Presidential Runoff

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By Monia Ghanmi

Tunisian presidential candidate Béji Caid Essebsi is six percentage points ahead of incumbent Moncef Marzouki, but the margin is not big enough to prevent a run-off election in a fortnight.

The Nidaa Tounes party chief won about 1.3 million votes, or 39.4% in the landmark election Sunday, while the interim president took 1.1 million votes, or 33.4%, Tunisia’s Independent High Electoral Commission (ISIE) announced on Tuesday (November 25th).

More than 3.18 million voters took part in the poll.

“In case no other presidential candidate submits an appeal against the results, a run-off will be held between December 12th-14th,” ISIE member Nabil Boufon said.

Popular Front candidate Hamma Hammami came in third in the Sunday ballot, with 7.2% of the vote. Other top contenders were Hachmi Haamdi of al-Aridha Chaabia, who won 5.75%, and the Free Patriotic Union’s Slim Riahi, who received 5.55 %.

These parties may have a say in who becomes Tunisia’s next president, some experts suggest.

Winning the upcoming race will depend on which of the two contenders is able to forms alliances with other parties, political analyst Noureddine Mbarki told Magharebia.

“The second round won’t witness a conflict over platforms, but will be more focused on winning the other political blocs, whose candidates lost in the first round, especially the leftist Popular Front,” he said.

There has been no word from the Popular Front as to whether it plans to endorse Caid Essebsi or be neutral in the second round. Its leaders already confirmed they would not back Marzouki.

Slim Riahi said his party would meet next week to decide who to endorse in the run-off.

But the biggest question mark is Islamist party Ennahda, which won 69 seats in parliamentary poll last month but did not field a candidate in the presidential election.

Ennahda chief Rached Ghannouchi on Monday said the movement’s Shura Council would hold a meeting to decide how it would handle the run-off.

Ali Larayedh, a leader of Ennahda, said the movement might change its position in the second round and endorse one of the candidates.

Election law states that in the event that case the candidates in the run-off win an equal number of votes, the older candidate will be chosen as president.

Tunisians are voicing hope that the run-off election will be held in an atmosphere of fair competition between the two candidates, away from provocative speech and violence.

“This is the first time that I long to know the results of an election,” said Amani Ben Moussa, a secretary at a communication company.

“The race for the presidency is very heated this time, but the most important thing is to have fair competition among the parties,” the young woman added.

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MEPs Chart Course From Lima To Paris For Climate Change Talks

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Talks to be held in Lima next month should enable global partners to reach an ambitious climate agreement in Paris in 2015, so as to keep the world on track for a sub-2°C climate warming scenario, the European Parliament said in a resolution voted on Wednesday. MEPs reiterated the pledge by the EU and its member states to step up contributions to the UN Green Climate Fund.

“We’ll be facing a significant political challenge in Lima: to convince all stakeholders that we need to invest in climate policy, in order to save the environment, create jobs and develop sustainable technologies. This requires stepping up our efforts within the international community. (…) The recent agreement between the US and China are a step in the right direction, but this is only a beginning”, said Environment Committee chair Giovanni La Via (EPP, IT), who will lead the EP delegation to Lima next month.

The MEPs called for binding 2030 targets for emission reduction, energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources, except socially and environmentally harmful biofuels, in line with the EU’s commitment to reduce its GHG emissions to 80%-95 % below 1990 levels by 2050.

According to a press statement from the European Parliament, MEPs see the 1-12 December Lima conference as an opportunity to set key goals for an international agreement to be reached in Paris (COP 21) in December 2015, including clear steps for mitigation, adaptation and an implementation strategy to meet the goal of phasing out greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. An ambitious and legally binding international agreement would help to address the carbon leakage and competitiveness concerns of the relevant sectors, in particular the energy-intensive sector, they say.

MEPs recalled the commitment made by the EU and its member states to step up funding for climate measures by capitalising the UN’s Green Climate Fund and jointly mobilise USD 100 billion per year by 2020, as part of their contribution to the December 2009 UN Copenhagen Accord. MEPs call on other donors to do likewise, so as to mobilise more funding for climate measures. They also note that the EU is on track to achieve emissions reductions well beyond the current 20% target, and reiterate its readiness to increase its emissions reduction target to 30% by 2020 if other major emitting countries commit to comparable reduction targets.

In addition, the MEPs stressed that agreements on funding climate measures, technology transfer and capacity building will be essential to help developing countries, which contribute the least to greenhouse gas emissions, but suffer the most from their effects. They urged member states to use part of the revenues raised through carbon markets for climate financing and aid in developing countries.

MEPs reiterated that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) must achieve satisfactory and timely results to reduce GHG emissions from ships and planes. They also reiterated the call to earmark carbon-tax revenues for financing international climate measures.

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Securing ASEAN’s Cyber Domain: Need For Partnership In Strategic Cybersecurity – Analysis

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The ASEAN region cannot afford a security lapse as the digital domain is supposed to propel its development. ASEAN should lead in forging partnership in strategic cybersecurity.

By Elina Noor

The Naypyidaw Declaration on the ASEAN Community’s Post-2015 Vision positions ASEAN as a rules-based and resilient community that is capable of upholding its centrality in the evolving regional architecture. Equally, an integrated ASEAN in the years to come should preserve its continued relevance by contributing and responding to global issues of common concern.

Ensuring that the region remains free of weapons of mass destruction is one way of achieving this vision. So, too, is strengthening maritime security and cooperation. But where ASEAN can really start to make a difference – to be proactive – to lead in partnership and to boldly underscore its bearing, is in the emergent area of strategic cybersecurity.

Urgency to secure cyberspace

As a developing region, Southeast Asia has the most advanced implementation of harmonised e-commerce laws. Nine of the 10 ASEAN countries have laws related to electronic transactions, while eight have those concerned with cybercrime. All but one have a national cybersecurity programme. This is, perhaps, of little surprise, given that economic prosperity (and the regulatory framework to secure that) as the basis for peace and security has been an ASEAN priority from the beginning.

Since the World Trade Centre attacks in the United States, as well, issues of terrorism related to cyberspace and cybercrime have featured in numerous ASEAN declarations and communiques. This growing recognition of the urgency to secure cyberspace has permeated discussions in the ASEAN Regional Forum with tentative initiatives, such as a work plan aimed at promoting confidence-building measures.

Where discussion has lagged in the ASEAN framework has been how state interactions with each other and non-state actors should be governed in cyberspace. Specifically, and, rather shockingly, for a grouping of relatively and mostly small states with a constellation of powerful dialogue partners, there has been little consideration about the role and applicability of international law in the conduct of relations in the virtual realm.

Duality of cyberspace: civilian, military or both?

A region that aspires to connectivity must underwrite its own security. This goes beyond technical resilience — crucial in ‎its own right — to a framing set of cross-border laws and principles that will guide state conduct online, as well as offline. A conversation about rules must be conducted by a community to be based on rules.

It is not just diplomats who should be talking, however. The duality of cyberspace means that the usual parameters that define civilian and military spaces are mutable. How should militaries in the region be guided in cyberspace, when infrastructure, network grids and software are shared with the civilian world? What rules of engagement apply if cyber or other operations are warranted?

Southeast Asia’s militaries should also be talking with each other to clarify intentions, promote some predictability of conduct and advance interoperability in cyberspace. ‎The ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) does not yet discuss cybersecurity as a separate working group. It would do well to do so. It would do better to explore the matter with its dialogue partners, many of which have superior cyber technologies and much to share.

Even accounting for the inevitable natural security sensitivities in this new domain, there is plenty of scope at this stage for doctrinal development, technical exchanges and joint exercises. At the very least, militaries in the region should be establishing rules of engagement in cyberspace in accordance with prevailing international law.

Rising East, Shining West?

The irony is that even as the East is rising, the sun appears to be still shining in the West, at least in cyberspace. ASEAN cannot afford a security lag or lapse in this space, especially not when the digital domain — a recognised force leveller — is supposed to leapfrog the region’s development.

To capitalise on technology, even the smallest and least developed member state must be an active and participatory stakeholder, if not in capability, then at least in voice.

As geopolitical dynamics evolve and states jostle with each other for power and dominance online, it will be absolutely in this region’s interest to shape and advocate a ‎cyber domain based on an international legal framework. ‎As chair of ASEAN next year, Malaysia should lead this charge and set the tone for, and in line with, the the ASEAN Community’s Post-2015 Vision.


Elina Noor is Assistant Director, Foreign Policy and Security Studies at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), Malaysia where this article was first published.

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Third-Quarter Results For North America-Focused Crude Oil Producers – Analysis

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According to a review of financial statements released in recent weeks and despite lower crude oil prices, companies drilling in North American tight oil formations recorded improved financial results in third-quarter 2014 as compared with third-quarter 2013 (Figure 1). The recent financial statements for a group of 30 publicly traded companies suggest that improved operational efficiency, asset sales, and increases in the value of the companies’ hedging instruments contributed to better financial results despite front month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices averaging $97.24 per barrel (bbl) in the third quarter of 2014, $8.56/bbl lower than third-quarter 2013.twip141126fig1-lg

Net income for the 30 companies more than doubled, increasing by $3.6 billion to $5.0 billion. Liquids production, which totaled 1.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d), was 338,000 bbl/d higher in third quarter 2014 than in third-quarter 2013. In addition, and consistent with prior-period trends, these companies were able to increase their profitability by controlling costs even while increasing production, as reflected in the lower ratio of operating expenses to revenue. The combination of these factors contributed to the highest return on investors’ equity for any quarter in three years.

There were some areas where company performance lagged previous results. Third-quarter 2014 asset impairments totaled almost $1.1 billion–higher than in the third-quarter 2013 and the highest level so far in 2014. Impairments occur when a company writes down the value of properties to reflect a lower current market value. Impairments occur when properties lose production potential or become uneconomic because of energy price declines.

Not only were absolute WTI prices lower than third-quarter 2013, but the prices of other U.S. crude oils such as WTI Midland and Bakken, which are prices some of these producers receive, were more discounted to WTI than in the previous year.

This group of companies, while profitable, still spent more on capital expenditures than they generated from operations. In previous quarters, they met most of the cash shortfall through capital markets, raising debt or equity, to pay for investment. In the third quarter, the shortfall was met through sales of property or other lines of business, with sales totaling $4.5 billion, the highest level for any quarter in the past five years. Some sales were of non-core assets; e.g., natural gas utility business, suggesting that through the sales companies are increasing focus on upstream exploration and production. Cash from these sales helped pay for investment, which contributed to a substantially lower net increase in debt as compared with the previous two years.

Some producers may also have chosen to protect themselves from declining crude prices by hedging, which includes buying or selling futures, options, or swaps contracts. Hedging allows a company to protect its future oil production against downward price movements. When the value of hedging contracts increases, it offsets reduced revenue from future oil production due to lower prices. For this group of companies, the value of hedging contracts increased in the third quarter, resulting in an unrealized gain of nearly $4.1 billion (Figure 2) on previously purchased hedging contracts and the value of hedges purchased in the quarter. Hedging asset value had declined in late 2013 because oil price volatility was low and prices rose amid global supply outages. In third-quarter 2014, however, crude prices declined because of growing supply and uncertainty about future demand, and, as a result, hedging asset value increased as compared with prior quarters.twip141126fig2-lg

The largest gain in the value of hedging contracts occurred in hedges on production within the next year. Details on specific hedging techniques used by these companies are difficult to obtain; however, a potential reason for the large gain in value for hedges on production in the next year may be that near-term crude oil futures contracts respond more to new information, whereas longer-dated futures contracts exhibit less price volatility. From June 30 to September 30, the December 2015 WTI futures contract price decreased by $7.56/bbl, less than the decline in futures contracts for WTI crude oil delivery in December 2014 and June 2015.

Although hedges provide protection from adverse price movements, prolonged periods of lower prices could nonetheless exert financial pressure on some of these companies, particularly companies with higher costs or higher debt. For the fourth quarter so far, front month WTI prices have averaged $81.01/bbl. Additional information on the financial performance of oil and gas companies can be found in EIA’s Quarterly Financial Review.

GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL PRICES DECREASE

The U.S. average price for regular gasoline decreased seven cents from the prior week to $2.82 per gallon as of November 24, 2014, 47 cents lower than the same time last year. The Midwest price fell nine cents to $2.76 per gallon. The Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain prices decreased eight cents, to $2.59 per gallon and $2.93 per gallon, respectively. The West Coast price was down seven cents to $3.05 per gallon. The East Coast price decreased five cents to $2.85 per gallon.

The U.S. average price for diesel fuel decreased three cents to $3.63 per gallon, down 22 cents from the same time last year. The Midwest and West Coast prices declined four cents, to $3.74 per gallon and $3.72 per gallon, respectively. The Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain prices decreased three cents, to $3.51 per gallon and $3.74 per gallon, respectively. The East Coast price decreased two cents to $3.52 per gallon.

PROPANE INVENTORIES FALL

U.S. propane stocks fell 2.0 million barrels last week to 79.2 million barrels as of November 21, 2014, 22.3 million barrels (39.1%) higher than a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels and Midwest inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels. East Coast inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories remained unchanged. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 3.9% of total propane inventories.

RESIDENTIAL HEATING OIL PRICE DECREASES, RESIDENTIAL PROPANE PRICE UNCHANGED

As of November 24, 2014, residential heating oil prices averaged $3.36 per gallon, 2 cents per gallon lower than last week, and about 53 cents less than last year’s price for the same week. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged nearly $2.58 per gallon, almost 3 cents per gallon lower than last week and 57 cents lower when compared to the same time last year.

Residential propane prices were virtually unchanged at $2.41 per gallon, nearly 14 cents per gallon less than the price at the same time last year. Wholesale propane prices averaged 93 cents per gallon, over 7 cents less than last week’s price and almost 50 cents per gallon lower than the November 25, 2013 price.

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China Strengthening Claim To South China Sea Oil And Gas – Analysis

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By Colin Chilcoat

Not gone and not forgotten, China is ready to solidify its claim to the South China Sea (SCS). Recent satellite imagery confirms China is conducting significant land reclamation operations in the Spratly Islands in the SCS. The SCS is an important fishing ground and is believed to hold large amounts of oil and gas. Undermining the United States’ influence in the region, China intends to play the shepherd in one of the world’s busiest trade routes.

The Spratly Islands along with the Paracel Islands and several maritime boundaries in the SCS have been hotly disputed for several centuries. The conflict includes Brunei, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam and has predominantly centered on historical and cultural claims. Though offering very little in the way of land or resources, the islands serve as a tangible marker. As such, parties to the conflict have been quick to occupy them.

China’s most recent undertaking in the Spratly island chain is not their first – the last 18 months have already seen three reclamation projects. However, at more than 3,000 meters and counting Fiery Cross Reef is their grandest venture yet and appears destined to house an airstrip and harbor, both capable of supporting military hardware. The Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam already operate airstrips in the Spratlys, but can only support smaller, prop-based aircraft.

As it pursues expansion, China has been hesitant to engage in multilateral negotiations and meaningful dialogue on the SCS was relegated to the sidelines at the recent APEC and ASEAN summits. Instead, China – demanding an in-house solution to the convoluted matter – is content to flex its superior political and military might to limited opposition. Reluctant to step on any toes and with its feet in multiple courts, the United States is short on political recourse, and that’s how China likes it.

Though China’s aims are long-term, control of the Spratlies and Paracels is not subsidiary to any prize that may lie beneath. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “Asian security concept” calls for Asian solutions to Asian problems and seeks to limit Western influence in such “domestic” affairs. Unchecked dominance in the SCS, whether through direct force or intimidation, would be a remarkable victory in this regard.

And to the victor go the spoils, which in this case are still pretty unclear, a side effect of the conflict itself. The Energy Information Administration estimates the SCS holds approximately 11 billion barrels (bbl) of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas. That estimate jumps to as much as 22 bbl of oil and 290 Tcf of natural gas according to a U.S. Geological Survey study. Chinese National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) is perhaps the most optimistic and estimates undiscovered resources of oil and gas in the SCS total 125 bbl and 500 Tcf respectively.

To date, the SCS nations have been relatively successful drilling in their near-offshore waters. Malaysia and Thailand for example, have created Joint Development Agreements to expedite production without addressing territorial disputes. For its part, China has largely played the provocateur. In 2011 and 2012, China offered a slew of oil and gas blocks to foreign bidders; the blocks – in contested waters – received no bids. More recently in May, China stationed its new deepwater drilling rig within Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone setting off a series of violent protests in Vietnam.

Disregarding today’s low commodity prices, the SCS is a tough sell for Western majors unwilling to take sides. Shell and ExxonMobil have been the most active in conflict-free waters and any multilateral resolution favors their size and deepwater drilling experience.

Despite the uncertainty of the resources below the surface, there is quantifiable wealth above. Approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil and over half of the global LNG trade pass through the SCS daily. In all, $5.3 trillion in total trade moves annually through the SCS. With an aim to control no less than 80 percent of the sea, China may soon be able to impose its will on global trade patterns.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Strengthening-Claim-To-South-China-Sea-Oil-And-Gas.html

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India’s Strategic Pivot To The Indo Pacific – Analysis

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By Dr. Subhash Kapila

India’s “Strategic Pivot to the Indo Pacific” stands signified with the dramatic strategic and political outreach made by Prime Minister Modi during his recent visit to Australia and forging a substantial India-Australia Strategic Partnership.

Fortuitously, with both India and Australia headed by two dynamic Prime Ministers, alive to the rapidly changing security scenarios and with a realistic strategic awareness that both geostrategically placed nations need to play a significant role in stabilising the Indo Pacific expanse, synergised their personal chemistries to the forging of the India-Australia Strategic Partnership.

In the years to come India’s strategic pivot to the Indo Pacific and Australia’s equally unambiguous strategic pivot towards India and the Indian Ocean would be viewed as a strategic game-changer in stabilising the increasing imbalance creeping in the balance-of-power equilibrium in the Indo Pacific.

It needs to be recalled that while India geostrategically dominates the Indian Ocean region, it is Australia which dominates the Southern Flank of the Indian Ocean and also the Southern Pacific. India and Australia therefore with concerted and synergised strategic formulations are in a position to buttress the Southern Arc of Democracies in the Indo Pacific.

Notably it needs to be highlighted that India’s Strategic Pivot to the Indo Pacific supplements and complements the United States Strategic Pivot to the Asia Pacific. The same could have been said for the Russian Strategic Pivot to the Asia Pacific announced in 2012 but for Russia’s flawed strategic nexus with China.

In the last decade, one witnessed the emergence of the US-Japan-India Trilateral and the US-Japan-India-Australia Quadrilateral as strategic responses to China’s not so peaceful military rise and its policies of conflict-escalation. The impetus to reinforcing these strategic initiatives soon faded away when Australia under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd with his inclinations and personal tilt towards China devalued Australia’s participation.

Australia was shaken out of the Rudd-induced strategic stupor by China’s increasing political and military forays in the Southern Pacific nations deemed as Australia’s own strategic backyard.

The India-Australia Framework for Security Cooperation announced in early November2014 by Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Abbott encompasses a wide strategic canvas covering institutionalised meetings at the political level of the Prime Ministers, Foreign Ministers and Defence Ministers and extending to regular security dialogues, military exercises, maritime security cooperation, and explore joint defence R&D. This is over and above the various other cooperative mechanisms for energy security, trade and investments.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi summed up this historic Security Framework between the two nations as “Natural Partnership arising from our shared values and interests.”

Australian Prime Minister Abbot summed up his country’s reactions as “Security and defence are important and growing areas of new India-Australia partnership for achieving regional peace and security”.

From such shared strategic convergences one can optimistically expect that in follow-up initiatives both India and Australia would add substantial contours to the initiatives of the Security Framework agreed in November 2014 by Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Abbott.

In terms of regional reactions in the wide Indo Pacific region the India-Australia Security Framework stands widely welcomed but for the exception of China.

India’s Strategic Pivot to the Indo Pacific of which the India-Australia Security Framework is a natural corollary will see the active revival of the US-Japan-India-Australia Strategic Quadrilateral. It can also be hoped that India and Australia will increase their efforts to draw-in and effect greater security interaction with the ASEAN countries many of which were fence-sitters on regional security issues.

It cannot be denied that while the India-Australia Strategic Partnership which arises from the India-Australia Security Framework is a bilateral strategic initiative, inherent in it is the foundation for greater security and maritime security cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean segments. It does encompass wider strategic ramifications when related to China’s maritime ambitions of dominating the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

Reverberations from China would logically follow in due course as China deciphers the impact of what India and Australia have strategically achieved early this month. Military provocations and aggressive brinkmanship mark China’s propensity to deal with such perceived threats to its military ambitions. These should be expected, if for nothing else, but to test the resolve of India and Australia.

Concluding, one can assert, that the India-Australia Security Framework jointly agreed early this month marks the advent of both India and Australia asserting themselves towards greater peace and security in the Indo Pacific. Prime Minister Modi has truly asserted that India is no longer confined to rhetoric on Look East and Act East but now intends for a more active role in Indo Pacific security in concert with the other major regional power of Australia.

India’s Strategic Pivot to the Indo Pacific, a long overdue initiative now seems to be taking shape.

(Dr Subhash Kapila is a graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College, Camberley and combines a rich experience of Indian Army (Brigadier), Cabinet Secretariat, and diplomatic assignments in Bhutan, Japan, South Korea and USA. Currently, Consultant International Relations & Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. He can be reached at drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com

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Iran Should Accept US Presidential Waiver – Analysis

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By Kaveh L. Afrasiabi

According to some Western commentators, one of the reasons for the absence of a deal by the November 24th deadline was the inability of US negotiators to convince the Iranian negotiators that President Obama could make a deal with Iran that would withstand the congressional opposition.

Case in point, Peter Jenkins on lobelog.com has written that based on information “from a source close to the Iranian negotiation team,” the Iranians were concerned that the next US president might reverse or nullify any sanctions waivers ordered by president Obama and were also concerned that Obama would not be able to get congressional approval for the final deal.

Assuming this is correct and was indeed one of the stumbling blocks that precluded a breakthrough by the deadline, which has now been extended for another seven months, then it lends itself to critical scrutiny. The purpose of such a scrutiny is not to engage in academic exercise but rather to shed lights on the road ahead and to determine if any adjustment on Iran’s part is called for. In this author’s opinion, Iran should not hesitate to enter a multilateral agreement based on such hesitations, for several reasons:

First, the agreement would be signed by all the parties as sovereign parties by their representatives and therefore it is immaterial, legally speaking, how the deal is received in each country so long as the government keeps to the terms of its obligations. As a political entity, the US would enter into this agreement and, therefore, it would not be Iran’s business to worry about how the Congress reacts. Obviously, if the Congress, hypothetically speaking, passes a new sanctions bill and overrides any presidential veto and thus makes it into a law of the land, then that becomes the official government policy that, in case it violates the terms of a deal with Iran, would be tantamount to treaty violation under international law.

Second, Jenkins’s point that the European and other companies would not engage with Iran because of the threat of sanctions by US Congress is questionable. This overlooks that the moment a final deal is signed thousands of foreign companies eager to do business with Iran will flood the scene and most if not all of them will rightly conclude that the green light by the international community to do business in Iran has been given. Any change of circumstances in the future, such as a renewal of sanctions, would not affect the existing investments and trade agreements with Iran and would bar only future trade and investment.

Third, Jenkins’s other mistake is that he ignores the fact that the president’s opponents in the US Senate do not have the necessary votes for a veto override, highlighted by the recent letter to Obama on Iran that was signed by only 44 Republican senators. In other words, not all Republicans are on the same page with the Iran hawks and most likely any attempt by the latter to defeat Obama’s deal with Iran will end up in failure.

Fourth, US’s withdrawal from an international agreement honored and implemented by the other “5 +1″ parties would certainly backfire against the US and this, in turn, can inhibit such a reaction, simply because by then the international sanctions on Iran will be in a rapid process of evaporation and the reversal of that momentum would be exceedingly difficult if not impossible.

Fifth, Jenkins does not bother mention that Iran is not totally defenseless in the face of a scenario whereby Obama’s executive orders are overturned by Congress. With the right to withdraw from the agreement in response to a violation by other parties preserved in the text of the document, Iran can protect itself by using the threat of reciprocation and even withdrawal, as a result of which Iran should have little worry about the nature of the US government and its layers of decision-making, better to confine itself to the formality of signing a formal agreement with the US government, period.

Finally, in terms of the implementation of a final deal, it is likely to be supervised by a joint commission similar to the one set up by the interim agreement, in which case the US would be legally tied to a multilateral forum that ties its hands in terms of determining unilaterally if Iran has been in compliance with its obligations or not. Contrary to the statements by the US negotiators and US Secretary of State John Kerry, the matter of stopping the suspension of sanctions and re-imposing them for one reason or another is not that simple and, in fact, is legally problematic, solely as a result of the new limits on unilateralism imposed by the multilateral deal.

In conclusion, taking all the delicate, legally-sensitive, issues above-mentioned into consideration, the logical decision by Iran is to set aside its hesitations with respect to the US executive branch’s delicacies and simply push for a formal multilateral agreement that would be recognized as a treaty under the Vienna law of treaties, instead of a murky ‘plan of action’ lacking a firm legal status, and limit its request that the US like the other state parties to the agreement formally signs it.

*Kaveh Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of several books on Iran’s foreign policy. His writings have appeared on several online and print publications, including UN Chronicle, New York Times, Der Tagesspiegel, Middle East Journal, Harvard International Review, and Brown’s Journal of World Affairs, Guardian, Russia Today, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, Boston Globe, Mediterranean Affairs, Nation, Telos, Der Tageszeit, Hamdard Islamicus, Iranian Journal of International Affairs, Global Dialogue.

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Nepal: Spirit Of Constitution On Progressive Restructuring Of States – Analysis

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By Binit Kumar Jha

The main agenda of Jana Andolan-2 and Madhesh Aandolan about restructuring of the State was based on equality and the elimination of all forms of discrimination; fair, equal and effective representation in State institutions; secure citizenship; secular State; constitutional recognition of the diversity of cultures and languages; and self government through a federal type of autonomy established on language and ethnicity.

The Interim Constitution of Nepal, 2063 [2007] that followed is a consensus document among the political parties in accordance to Jana Andolan-2 and Madhesh Aandolan. It has given a blueprint and an outline of the future constitution. A formula has been set in the Nepal’s Interim Constitution about the progressive restructuring and power distribution of the state.

Thus, while discussing about restructuring of the state, the members of the Constituent Assembly should study and think about the constitutional provisions, which has provided the necessary blueprint. These principles are mentioned in the Preamble and in Article 138 and it is incumbent on the government to follow the principles already laid down.

Provisions Relating to Restructuring of the State:

1. The most important principle is a Restructuring of the State which appears in several places in the Interim Constitution. In the second paragraph of the preamble of the Interim Constitution of Nepal, 2063 [2007], mention is made of “Pledging to accomplish the progressive restructuring of the State in order to solve the problems existing in the country relating to class, ethnicity, region and gender;” . This is a binding commitment. The Preamble reflects the spirit of the Constitution. Hence, the key principle of the constitution should be progressive restructuring of the State. The word “Pledging”, has not been used casually- It has been used with all seriousness, inevitability and a necessary requirement for progressive state restructuring.

Article 33 (d) of the directive principles of the Interim Constitution the states, “Inclusive, democratic and progressive restructuring of the State by eliminating its existing form of centralized and unitary structure in order to address the problems relating to women, Dalits, indigenous tribes (Adivasi, Janagati), Madheshi, oppressed and minority communities and other disadvantaged groups, by eliminating class, caste, language, gender, cultural, religious and regional discrimination.”

This provision of the Interim Constitution signifies a crystal clear vision on the future constitution and cannot be ignored by the makers of the new constitution

2.Article 138 (1) of the Interim Constitution, states that “There shall be made progressive restructuring of the State with inclusive, democratic federal system of governance, by doing away with the centralized and unitary structure of the State so as to end discriminations based on class, caste, language, gender, culture, religion and region.”

This provision of the Constitution has once again clearly expressed that the existing centralized and unitary structure is an obstacle and the need to demolish the discriminations based on class, caste, language, gender, culture, religion and region. The message is again very clear- that the future structure would have to be an inclusive, democratic federal setup.

3. The answer to whom and why the progressive restructuring of State should concern, is in, Article 138 (1a) of the Constitution which states: “Recognizing the desire of the indigenous peoples and of the people of backward and other area including Madheshi people towards autonomous provinces Nepal shall be a federal democratic republican state. Provinces shall be autonomous and vested with full authority. The boundaries, number, names and structures, as well as full details of the lists, of autonomous provinces and the center and allocation of means, resources and powers shall be determined by the Constituent Assembly, while maintaining the sovereignty, unity and integrity of Nepal.”

As stated in the constitution itself, the need for federal restructuring was to set right that imbalance and make it “inclusive” and explicit for the Madhesi, tribal, ethnic, disadvantageous citizens of other areas. It also states very clearly that these communities’ desires and demands of an autonomous State must be addressed by the constitutional process. It is also implied that the States won’t be just exist for the sake of the name but will be truly autonomous with full authority.

Restructuring cannot therefore be done without taking into account the interests of those citizens who have till now been ignored by the government and an opportunity has thus been given to such people to upgrade and develop their region without interference.

4. According to Article 138 (2) of the Constitution “There shall be constituted a high level commission to make suggestions on the restructuring of the State. The composition, function, duty, power and condition of service of such commission shall be as determined by the Government of Nepal”.

According to this provision, during the first Constituent Assembly, a high-level State Restructuring Commission was formed by the government. This commission advised for 10 provinces. The then Congress and UML representatives, a minority in the commission, wrote a note of dissent against the proposal and presented a blueprint of 6 provinces based on capability. Capability of what? One does not know.

5. Article 138 (3) of the Interim Constitution of Nepal states that “The final settlement on the matters relating to the restructuring of the State and its form of federal governance system shall be as determined by the Constituent Assembly”.

It is therefore obligatory for the constitution makers to deeply consider the import of the articles cited in the interim constitution as also the reasons why these provisions were made after the Jana Andolan II and the Madhesi Aandolan.

The major parties representing Constituent Assembly, Nepali Congress, UML and UCPN (Maoist), cannot ignore and instead crystallize the spirit and desires of Madheshi, indigenous, tribal, backwards and people belonging to different areas and regions.

The new constitution cannot be for the benefit of any particular community. In the new federal constitution of the government the governance and justice systems must provide all Nepalese citizens equal service and facilities, and to uplift peoples’ life standard, end discrimination. This involves equal participation in the governance system and equal justice. This is the hope and demand of the majority.

Narrow Vision of Law Makers:

With narrow-minds and selfish thought, a progressive constitution cannot be imagined. A constitution is compiled of manifesto, national symbol, set of values, a vision, a country’s supreme law, to which other laws and policies, must blend. The legal part deals with the rights and obligations, the structure and powers of the State, relations between the precise and clear; for otherwise there will be disputes about the meaning of the text and will be hard to implement. A constitution formed with a narrow-minded and selfish mentality can turn into “Visavrikcha” (Poisonous tree).

A new Constitution should be such that the people of Nepal from all corners- people from Mountains, Hills and Madheshh have a sense of ownership towards it. The vision of the country is described by its constitution. It is vital therefore for the minorities to observe, how they are represented in the Nation and State. The 1990 constitution represented a vision of Nepal which denied the culture and religion of many communities and alienated them from, at least, the state. Hence, the new constitution must include a broader vision, inclusive of its diverse communities and, in moral perspective, driven by the imperative of social justice.

Located between two Giants, Nepal Needs Stability to develop:

In the current global scenario, the two neighboring countries, India and China are moving fast. On one hand, India is the world’s largest democratic country and developing its economy rapidly. It is trying to get well established place in the world’s economy. For millennia, it has social, cultural and religious relations with Nepal. Similarly, we have China, with the world’s largest population and second in the world’s economy. Situated between these two powerful nations, Nepal needs to establish “Stable Political System” as soon as possible. Hence, the top leaders of the political parties and CA members should complete the process of making of the new constitution with consensus on time, to work on uplifting and improving the living standards of Nepalese thus creating employment for youth to stop them from going abroad, rather than concentrating on their personal and parties’ benefits.

Under the leadership of Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, Dr. Bhimrao Ambedkar the Constitution of India was written. Ambedkar was the Chairman of the India’s Constitution Drafting Committee. On the early morning of 15th August, 2014, from The Red Fort, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi saluted the constitution architect, for making an inclusive constitution because of which a person like him, born and raised in a normal Indian family was able to be elected as a Prime Minister of the world’s largest democratic country.

Due to Constitution makers’ vision and knowledge, in a population of around 1.15 billion, a normal citizen who is born and raised in a family with modest means, could dream and become the Prime Minister of India. This is the remarkable quality of democracy. In a similar way Nepalese Constitution maker should show their vision, knowledge and honesty. The Nepalese people and the future generations also want to salute the Constitution makers.

We must get inspired by democratic India. And we must learn.

Conclusion:

Thus the Constitution maker should make “Sarvajan Hitaya Sarvajan Sukhya” constitution, which means that the constitution should reflect the interests of around 27.5 million Nepalese. This is a serious responsibility.

The people have given a huge responsibility to the second Constituent Assembly members. Each member must show his/her skills and complete this historic responsibility. What is needed is vision for future well being of the communities as a whole- inclusive with equal opportunities.

(The writer is an advocate of the Supreme Court of Nepal.)

The post Nepal: Spirit Of Constitution On Progressive Restructuring Of States – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Memory Of Previous US Presidents Forgotten

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American presidents spend their time in office trying to carve out a prominent place in the nation’s collective memory, but most are destined to be forgotten within 50-to-100 years of their serving as president, suggests a study on presidential name recall released today by the journal Science.

“By the year 2060, Americans will probably remember as much about the 39th and 40th presidents, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, as they now remember about our 13th president, Millard Fillmore,” predicts study co-author Henry L. Roediger III, PhD, a human memory expert at Washington University in St. Louis.

Roediger, the James S. McDonnell Distinguished University Professor in Arts & Sciences, has been testing the ability of undergraduate college students to remember the names of presidents since 1973, when he first administered the test to undergraduates while a psychology graduate student at Yale University.

His current study, co-authored with Washington University graduate student K. Andrew DeSoto, compares results from the presidential-recall tests Roediger has given to three generations of undergraduate college students (1974, 1991 and 2009) and a similar test offered online to 577 adults ages 18-69 in 2014.

While Roediger’s early research used the presidential-recall test to study patterns of remembering and forgetting in individual test takers, the new study was able to uncover how Americans forget presidents from our historical or popular memory over time.

In each test, participants were provided a numbered list with blank spaces and asked to fill in the names of all presidents they could remember in the order in which they served. If they could remember names but not the order, they were instructed to guess or to put the names off to the side. Thus, the results could be scored for recall of presidents with or without regard to correct order.

Findings showed several consistent patterns in how we have forgotten past presidents and offer a formula to predict the rate at which current presidents are likely to be forgotten by future generations.

Among the six presidents who were serving or had served most recently when the test was first given in 1973, Harry S. Truman, Lyndon B. Johnson and Gerald R. Ford are now fading fast from historical memory, whereas John F. Kennedy has been better retained. The study estimates that Truman will be forgotten by three-fourths of college students by 2040, 87 years after his leaving office, bringing him down to the level of presidents such as Zachary Taylor and William McKinley.

The current data do not permit assessment of forgetting rates of the most recent presidents, and do not specify why some relatively recent presidents are forgotten more rapidly than others, Roediger said.

“Kennedy was president less than three years, but is today remembered much better than Lyndon Johnson,” Roediger said. “One idea is that his assassination made him memorable, but of course that does not apply to James Garfield or William McKinley, who were also assassinated and are remembered relatively poorly.

“Kennedy may be well recalled because his brothers and other family members were (and are) active in politics and help to keep his memory alive,” Roediger speculated.

HIllary Clinton, if elected in 2016, has the potential to be much better remembered than her husband, because her presidency would represent a unique first in American history. Barack Obama may be well remembered for the same reason, Roediger said.

The rate at which college students forgot the order of recent presidents remained remarkably consistent over time and across different groups of college students. In 1974, nearly all college students recalled Johnson and his ordinal position (36), but by 1991, the proportion remembering him dropped to 53 percent and by 2009, it plummeted to 20 percent.

When asked to name the presidents in the order they served, we as a nation do fairly well at naming the last few presidents, but our recall abilities then fall off quickly, with less than 20 percent able to remember more than the last eight or nine presidents in order, the study finds.

While Americans who were tested could name the nation’s first president (George Washington) and do reasonably well at naming the next three or four presidents in order, the recall success rate for early presidents also drops off sharply, with fewer than 25 percent of Americans able to recall more than the first five presidents in order.

“Out of the 150 college students we tested in 2009, only four of them were able to recall virtually every president and place each in the correct position,” DeSoto said. “It’s possible that these individuals used a mnemonic like a song or rhyme that they learned for the purpose of remembering the presidents.”

With a few interesting exceptions, the vast majority of presidents in the middle of pack — from No. 8, Martin Van Buren, to No. 30, Calvin Coolidge — already are largely forgotten by the average American, the study finds.

The probability that anyone who took the test could recall both the name and the order of most presidents in this middle range is quite low, and this level of poor recall for the middle presidents has generally held true in testing across all generations for nearly four decades.

A notable exception in this middle wasteland of presidential recall is Abraham Lincoln and his two immediate successors, Andrew Johnson and Ulysses S. Grant.

“Clearly, Lincoln and his successors are well remembered because of their association with the American Civil War and the ending of slavery, but it is notable that many students and adults also often know that Lincoln was the 16th president,” Roediger said.

Other pre-Coolidge presidents who were remembered reasonably well in the free recall portion of the test are Theodore Roosevelt (26), William Howard Taft (27) and Woodrow Wilson (28), a showing that could be related to their favorable rankings by historians and ongoing mentions in popular culture and news media, the researchers suggest.

Roediger’s prediction about the memorability of Reagan and other recent presidents hinges on two core principles of human memory that are confirmed by this study and related research.

First, when presented with information in a long list, we tend to best remember items that are presented at the beginning and end of the list. Second, items presented in the middle of a long list are better remembered when they are somehow distinctive and different from other items in the list.

America’s memory for Johnson and Reagan, like that for most presidents, is destined to fade along a quick and predictable trajectory as new elections inexorably push them and their memories further down the list of the most recent and currently best-remembered presidents, the study suggests.

While most collective memory research conducted thus far has explored how we as a nation remember historic events, such as the Holocaust or the 9/11 terror attacks, this study is among the first to focus on how we forget salient events of the past over generations and to obtain estimates of rate of forgetting over time.

“Our results show that memories of famous historical people and events can be studied objectively,” Roediger said. “The great stability in how these presidents are remembered across generations suggests that we as a nation share a seemingly permanent form of collective memory.”

The post Memory Of Previous US Presidents Forgotten appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Burma: Suu Kyi Bill Passed To Speed-Up Bylaws

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By Shwe Aung

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi put forward an urgent proposal on Wednesday in Burma’s bicameral parliament urging government ministries to speed-up the issuance of bylaws and regulations necessary to implement laws enacted by parliament.

In her formal proposal, the leader of Burma’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party told the Union Parliament: “The Hluttaw, as the country’s legislative estate, is primarily tasked with introducing laws that are in the interest of the people and the country. However, we can only declare that we have truly fulfilled the interests of the people when these laws have a real effect on their lives.

“[For example,] we adopted the law on Protecting Rights and Raising Interests of Farmers on 8 October 2013, but it still has not taken effect because the bylaws and regulations have yet to be issues. Therefore, to this day farmers are still forced to leave their homes, move elsewhere and face various difficulties due to heavy indebtedness and the lack of access to technology and resources need to compete in the market and deal with other challenges.

“If we cannot follow up with bylaws and regulations for laws that have been approved by parliament, then it will give people the impression that these laws are only superficial, and the public’s confidence might decline. This would damage the credibility of both the legislative and executive estates.”

Suu Kyi’s proposal was supported by Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) MP Thura Aung Ko and Deputy Attorney General Tun Tun Oo. Thereafter, the proposal was unanimously approved by the Union Parliament.

Burma’s parliament—now in its 10th session—has adopted over 120 pieces of legislation in total, but relevant government ministries have yet to introduce bylaws and regulations required to implement laws governing farmers and workers, who make up 85 percent of the country’s population.

The post Burma: Suu Kyi Bill Passed To Speed-Up Bylaws appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Regional Cooperation For Sustainable Development: An Agenda For SAARC Kathmandu Summit – OpEd

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By Dr. Shamshad Akhtar

The leaders of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) will assemble in Kathmandu this week for their 18th Summit. It is an opportunity for game-changing policy decisions to deepen regional cooperation for inclusive and sustainable development.

Despite its economic dynamism of recent decades, South Asia today has the world’s largest concentration of poverty and hunger. With nearly a quarter of the world’s population and 40 per cent of the global poor, South Asian achievements significantly affect global development outcomes, which means that expectations about the Summit are high.

The inability to pursue economic, social and environmental development in an integrated way has left the subregion with vast structural imbalances and vulnerable to external shocks and natural disasters. A vigorous pursuit of the sustainable development agenda, leveraging positive spillovers of more integrated approaches, will allow a focus on sustainable, inclusive and balanced growth, This, in turn, leads to the creation of productive jobs, low-carbon industrialization and more sustainable consumption. The benefits will be far-reaching, helping to make South Asia a development success story and an engine of global growth.

The integrated pursuit of sustainable development requires effective governance and new institutional arrangements to better coordinate across different ministries. SAARC Leaders should also give their full support to the sustainable development goals being discussed at the United Nations as successors to the Millennium Development Goals beyond 2015.

While South Asia will need support from the global community, in terms of resources and technology in pursuit of sustainable development, regional cooperation and integration can play a critical role in supplementing this global partnership.

The external economic environment has changed dramatically following the global financial crisis. Advanced economies face a subdued and uncertain outlook, with the result that growth rates for South Asian exports have fallen significantly. The time has come to unlock the potential of regional integration to drive sources of growth closer at hand.

Intraregional trade in South Asia has remained low, at under 6 per cent. We need to work on removing trade barriers, strengthening transport links and wider connectivity, as well as augmenting supply capacities in smaller countries, and improve banking links to exploit their potential.

The biggest opportunity is to leverage proximity by developing regional value chains. For this, liberalization of intermediate goods and raw materials should be prioritized under the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). The Summit should also advance action on non-tariff barriers, harmonization of regional standards and other measures to facilitate trade such as the SAARC Single Window, integrated border check posts, electronic payment systems and paperless trade.

The potential of SAFTA to create supply capacities in less developed economies through regional value chains will be only realized if liberalization of goods trade is accompanied by liberalization of services trade and investments, accompanied by more conducive domestic enabling environments.

Liberalization of trade in services, including education, heath, tourism, construction, power, banking, telecommunications, transport and logistics, needs to be accelerated through binding commitments under the SAARC Agreement on Trade in Services (SATIS).

The Summit should also endorse the long-pending SAARC agreement on promotion and protection of investment. Cross-border investments need to be facilitated to allow investments in the creation of production units that are integrated with value chains. Cross-border listings could also be facilitated in some least developed countries to enable capital raising by enterprises that do not have access to deep capital markets.

Inadequate surface transport links between South Asian countries have reduced the trade benefits of geographical proximity. Today South Asia’s costs of intraregional trade are often higher than those of trading with Europe and North America. It is little wonder therefore that regional value chains have generally failed to take shape in the subregion.

With better transport linkages and efficient management of border-crossings, South Asia can not only facilitate intraregional trade but can also leverage its strategic location. ESCAP has developed Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway networks to enable countries in the region to build better connectivity. Low hanging fruit in this context is the extension of the Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad (ITI) container train corridor to Delhi-Kolkota-Dhaka (DKD) using existing rail infrastructure routes, as concluded at the recent ESCAP policy discussion in New Delhi on transport connectivity in Southern Asia.

With multimodal feeder links, Afghanistan, Bhutan and Nepal will be land-linked to ports, and the ITI-DKD corridor will become an important trade artery reminiscent of the Southern Silk Route, serving as a hub for Asian trade with Europe. The widely expected signing of the SAARC Motor Vehicles Agreement and SAARC Railways Agreements at the Summit will be a big boost for the connectivity agenda in the subregion.

South Asian countries remain in the lower half in the ESCAP infrastructure index however, with wide infrastructure gaps. Closing these gaps requires massive resources. In this context, the infrastructure window of the Bhutan-based SAARC Development Fund, or its variant, could act as a project development facility for funding preparation of feasibility studies especially of regional projects. Good projects will have access to funding not only from the existing multilateral and national development banks but also from the new emerging ones, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank of the BRICS .

Widespread hunger and malnutrition in South Asia point to the further urgency of enhancing regional cooperation to complement national strategies for food security. Liberalization of regional trade in select food commodities can also augment food security, in addition to research and development; sharing of best practices in food procurement, storage and distribution; creation of food reserves and reduction of food wastage.

Cooperative approaches to harness subregional complementarities in energy have also begun to emerge, especially through electricity interchanges. The expected endorsement of a regional framework agreement on energy cooperation would be an important step. Bhutan-India cooperation in exploiting hydroelectric resources of the Himalayan region is a good practice that can be emulated in other contexts. The subregion needs to move towards exploiting its considerable renewable energy resources – hydro, wind and solar– and optimize their use across the subregion through integrated power grids, such as ESCAP’s Asian Energy Highway initiative.

The Kathmandu Summit presents a key opportunity for SAARC Leaders to give a major boost to the inclusive and sustainable development agenda for South Asia, through regional cooperation for the shared prosperity of nearly a quarter of humanity.

The author is an Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). She is also the UN’s Sherpa for the G20 and previously served as Governor of the Central Bank of Pakistan and Vice President of the MENA Region of the World Bank.

The post Regional Cooperation For Sustainable Development: An Agenda For SAARC Kathmandu Summit – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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