(RFE/RL) — Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi says falling oil prices have forced Iraq to scrap its draft 2015 budget.

Abadi told lawmakers on November 30 in Baghdad that the budget had been based on a forecast of $70 per barrel of oil but that prices fell to $64 per barrel on November 28, the lowest price since 2010.

He said the low prices, coupled with a disruption in production at oil fields in and around Kirkuk, means the budget has to be reworked.

Abadi said he hoped to present the new 2015 budget to parliament within 10 days.

Meanwhile, Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul-Mehdi told “The Telegraph” in an interview on November 30 that Iraq plans to double oil production from a current 3 million barrels per day (bpd) to some 6 million bpd by 2020.

The post Iraq Forced To Scrap 2015 Budget Due To Low Oil Prices appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Tanzania’s Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda is under increasing pressure to resign over alleged fraudulent payments worth $120 million to an energy firm and top officials of his government, reports MISNA.

According to MISNA, a parliamentary watchdog committee alleges that Pinda failed to properly oversee government finances.

The committee also called for the resignation of Attorney General Frederick Werema and Energy and Minerals Minister Sospeter Muhongo, MISNA reported, adding that last month international donors suspended about $490 million in aid to Tanzania until the allegations have been investigated.

The post Tanzania: Increased Calls For PM To Resign Over Corruption Scandal appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Hundreds of pro-democracy activists clashed with police in Hong Kong on Sunday after student leaders of the Occupy Central movement called on supporters to encircle government buildings in the former British colony.

Protesters wearing hard hats and masks chanted “Surround Government HQ!” and “Make Way! Make Way!” as they converged on Central Government Offices in the semiautonomous Chinese city, while police fired pepper spray in a bid to disperse the crowd.

More people began streaming towards the entrances and fire exits of the government building after a call from Nathan Law of the academic activist group Scholarism to supporters to join in.

The ubiquitous umbrellas, which became a symbol of the “Umbrella Movement” because of their widespread use to ward off pepper and tear-gas spray, were once more out in force.

The crowd had swelled to “several thousand,” by 10.00 p.m. local time, according to RFA journalists at the scene, after Hong Kong Federation of Students leader Nathan Law addressed the main occupation site on nearby Harcourt Road, calling on them to join in.

But Scholarism’s Oscar Lai warned protesters to stick to the principle of non-violent action, and not to provoke or charge at police.

“We can’t provoke the police or charge at them, because we are fighting for their basic right to vote and to seek election as well,” Lai said.

“They are Hong Kong people too,” he told the crowd in a speech as the action was launched in “Umbrella Square.”

“I want today’s action to be a mass action, not a dozen people hanging around at a street corner,” he said. “If that happens, it’s much harder for us to support you and ensure your safety.”

He added: “Today’s protest has an aim; and that is to force the government to pay attention to the will of the people.”

Police warning defied

Sunday’s protest came in spite of a police warning against such a rally, after which some 3,000 officers were deployed to the scene.

“If anyone obstructs the police in carrying out their duty, charges the police line violently, or tries to blockade central government offices, police will take resolute action,” police spokesman Kong Man-keung told reporters.

A City University student surnamed Ng said she would be swelling the ranks of Sunday’s protests, in spite of police warnings.

“I probably won’t stand right on the front line, because my family are very worried about my safety,” Ng said. “So I’ll find a spot a little further back.”

“The more of us there are, the safer it will be,” she said.

The renewed stand-off came after police cleared a seven-week-old occupation of the bustling shopping district of Mong Kok last week, acting to enforce a civil injunction brought by the transportation industry over the blocking of a major highway.

Police arrested 28 people in clashes on Friday and Saturday in Mong Kok, as hundreds of crowds attempted to retake the cleared site on Kowloon’s Nathan Road, without success.

The Occupy movement began on Sept. 28, when police use of tear-gas and pepper spray against umbrella-wielding demonstrators brought hundreds of thousands of citizens onto the streets in protest at the movement’s height.

But Hong Kong officials have repeatedly told the protesters to leave, saying that Beijing won’t withdraw an Aug. 31 decision ruling out public nomination of candidates in the 2017 election for the chief executive.

China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), said that while Hong Kong’s five million voters will cast ballots to elect the next chief executive, they may only choose between two or three candidates approved by a pro-Beijing committee.

‘Fake universal suffrage’

Protesters and pan-democratic politicians, who currently only have around seven percent of the nominating committee vote compared with 56 percent of the popular vote in the last legislative election, have dismissed the proposed electoral reforms as “fake universal suffrage.”

Meanwhile, the high-profile student leaders of the movement appear to be increasingly at odds with its founders, three middle-aged academics, who appear to favor more symbolic forms of resistance.

Law said that while not all Occupy protesters are students and not everyone agrees with the students’ actions, the HKFS has a clear vision on which to base its next move.

“At the start of the year…the federation collected the opinions of students from Hong Kong’s eight universities, and arrived at the consensus that everyone wants public nomination of election candidates,” Law said.

He said students also overwhelmingly support the abolition of industry-based seats in Hong Kong’s Legislative Council (LegCo), known as “functional constituencies.”

“The federation started out as a student organization that was there for students,” Law said. “Now, it is there for the public as a whole.”

Several hundred protesters remain in occupation on a major highway not far from government headquarters and at the busy shopping district of Causeway Bay, on Hong Kong Island.

They say they won’t leave until the government responds to their demands, some of which include the resignation of embattled chief executive C.Y. Leung and the withdrawal of Beijing’s Aug. 31 decision.

Reported by RFA’s Cantonese Service, and by Yang Fan for the Mandarin Service. Translated and written in English by Luisetta Mudie.

The post Hong Kong: Clashes Break Out As Protesters Converge On Government Buildings appeared first on Eurasia Review.

South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco) is awaiting a report on the reported killing of three South Africans in Kabul, Afghanistan.

“We have not received information about the deaths of the three people. We are waiting for a report from our mission in Pakistan, which is accredited to Afghanistan,” the department’s Nelson Kgwete told SAnews on Sunday.

Media outlets today reported that a Taliban attack on a foreign compound in Kabul on Saturday killed a South African father, son and daughter.

The post South Africa: Government Awaits Report On Afghan Killing appeared first on Eurasia Review.

How are Europe’s largest family businesses run? What do their boards of directors look like? How do they function? And how do they decide who takes the title of CEO?

The 2014 Survey of Corporate Governance Practices in European Family Businesses provides a snapshot view of some of the largest family businesses in France, Germany, Italy and Spain, along with some surprising facts.

For example, although 50 percent of board seats are occupied by family members, women make up only 16 percent of the average board.

And while the professionalization of Europe’s family businesses is evident, only about a third of their boards have any experience with CEO succession planning. Also, only a third of the boards have emergency CEO succession plans in place.

The survey covers four topics: (1) board composition, (2) board efficiency, (3) CEO succession planning and (4) the CEO/chairman backgrounds. It was conducted by Russell Reynolds Associates, an executive leadership and search firm, and it was overseen by IESE’s Josep Tàpies, holder of IESE’s Family-Owned Business Chair. The 400 largest family-controlled businesses in France, Germany, Italy and Spain were targeted, with 106 of them responding.

Who Sits on the Boards?

In Europe, on average, 50 percent of board seats are occupied by family members representing ownership interests. With the average board surveyed consisting of 7.4 members, only two seats (27 percent) go to independent directors, while company executives and other shareholder representatives occupy a seat a piece.

At the same time, there are relatively few female directors: women make up 16 percent of the board, on average. Yet gender diversity varies widely on European family-controlled boards, ranging from just 10 percent in Germany to 25 percent in France.

Foreign diversity is relatively scarce, with only eight percent of the board hailing from another country.

Family members’ presence on boards varies considerably country by country. In Spain, family members make up 62 percent of the average family-business board. Meanwhile, in Germany, family members make up only 25 percent of the average board. France and Italy are close to the survey average, with 51 percent and 56 percent, respectively.

In Spain, independent directors make up only 17 percent of the board, while Germany pushes up the average with 51 percent.

Gauging Board Efficiency

Formalized corporate governance practices are important in family businesses. In this survey, almost all boards review their companies’ economic and financial situations, as well as their capital expenditures and sales performances. Meanwhile, competitive, industry and client trends are on only 80 percent of the boards’ agendas.

When asked if they would describe their boards’ role as “informative,” “consultative” or “decision making,” more than half replied that their boards play a decision-making role. In developing the company’s strategic plan, 57 percent report that their boards’ role is “approval only.” Meanwhile, 40 percent feel that their boards both prepare and approve the strategic plan.

Yet only half of European boards surveyed have more than a week to prepare for board meetings. Moreover, 22 percent have fewer than three days to prepare. The German and French boards tend to get more advanced warnings of their meetings than Spanish and Italian boards do.

Interestingly, only 39 percent of boards surveyed have an “Audit and Risk” committee while 43 percent have a “Nominating / Remuneration” committee.

CEO Succession Planning

In family-controlled businesses, CEO succession can be a touchy subject. Just half of the boards surveyed (49 percent) have identified possible internal CEO candidates.

Furthermore, only a third of boards surveyed have a plan to replace the CEO in the event of an emergency. French boards tend to be better prepared, with 62 percent having a plan, compared with only 18 percent of Italian boards.

Boards also vary widely in their level of experience with CEO succession planning. On 95 percent of the German boards surveyed, at least one director has succession planning experience. In contrast, on the Italian boards surveyed, only 28 percent report having a member with experience.

How many internal or external candidates to evaluate for the CEO role? More than half of the family businesses say they consider it ideal to evaluate two or fewer candidates. At the same time, 60 percent of boards say that their internal candidates are benchmarked against external candidates in the market.

CEO and Chairman Background

In the end, more than two-thirds of the CEOs of family businesses in Europe are promoted internally. In Spain this number is higher: 85 percent of CEOs hail from the same company.

When CEOs come from external companies, they are most likely to bring experience within the same industry. That said, it is surprising that only 20 percent of external CEO hires come from other family-owned companies.

In contrast, when the chairman of the board comes from a different company, they are most likely to bring experience from another family-owned enterprise.

While European companies tend to separate the chairman and the CEO roles, 27 percent of family businesses surveyed combine them.

The post Family Businesses In Europe: A Snapshot View appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The effectiveness of official development aid is the subject of heated debate. This column argues that aid affects recipient economies in extremely complex ways and through multiple and changing channels. Moreover, this is a two-way relationship – realities in recipient countries affect the actions of aid agencies. This relationship is so intricate and time-dependent that it is not amenable to being captured by cross-country or panel regressions. Even sophisticated specifications with multiple breakpoints and nonlinearities are unlikely to explain the inner workings of the aid–performance connection.

By Sebastian Edwards

Foreign aid is controversial in development economics. Three distinct camps may be distinguished:

• One believes that official assistance is ineffective, and has harmed poor countries throughout the years.

This views official aid as creating dependency, fostering corruption, and encouraging currency overvaluation (Easterly 2014 and Moyo 2010). It also prevents countries from taking advantage of the opportunities provided by the global economy.

• Another camp believes that aid levels have been too low, and that large increases would help reduce poverty.

This camp, however, believes we need a rethinking on the way in which aid is provided (Sachs 2009 and Stiglitz 2002). In particular, specific interventions, such as anti-malaria programmes, should be emphasised.

• The third camp is less vocal, and includes authors such as Collier (2007), who has emphasised the role of a number of ‘traps’ in perpetuating destitution, and Banerjee and Duflo (2011) who argue that the use of ‘randomised control trials’ may help devise effective and specific aid programmes in the war against poverty and underdevelopment.[1]

These schools of thought have historical precedents.

Foreign aid policies from a historical perspective

Foreign aid is a relatively new concept in economics. The classics – Smith, Ricardo, and Stuart Mill, for example – didn’t address the subject in any significant way. If anything, classical economists thought that the colonies would catch up – and even surpass – the home country quite rapidly.[2] In Chapter VII of The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith provides a detailed discussion on the “causes of the prosperity of the new colonies.”[3]

The first legal statute dealing expressly with official aid was passed by Parliament in the UK in 1929.[4] In 1940 and 1945, new laws dealing with aid to the colonies were passed in the UK. These Acts increased the amount of funds available, and made commitments for longer periods of time – for up to ten years in the Colonial Development and Welfare Act of 1945. More important, the Act of 1945 established that aid plans had to be prepared “in consultation with representatives of the local population.”[5]

In the US the first law dealing with foreign assistance came quite late, with the adoption of the Marshall Plan in 1948.[6] In his inaugural speech on 20 January 1949 – the so-called ‘Four Point Speech’ – President Harry Truman put forward, for the first time, the idea that aid to poor nations was an important component of US foreign policy. He said that one of the goals of his administration would be to foster “growth of underdeveloped areas.”[7]

In spite of Truman’s vehement allocution, aid commitments to poor countries were considered temporary. In 1953, when Congress extended the Mutual Security Act, it explicitly stated that economic aid to US allies would end in two years; military aid was to come to a halt in three years.

In the early 1960s – and largely as a result of the escalation of the Cold War – the US revised its posture regarding bilateral assistance, and, jointly with other advanced countries, founded the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) at the newly formed Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The main objective of the DAC was – and continues to be – to coordinate aid to the poorest countries.[8]

Foreign aid policies and academics’ views on development

Academic research has helped shape international aid policies. During the 1950s and 1960s, aid agencies’ work was influenced by the Harrod–Domar growth model and by W. Arthur Lewis’ unlimited supplies of labour model. As a result, most agencies funded very large capital-intensive projects, and neglected policies, projects, and programmes related to labour, human capital, and productivity.

This changed in the late 1960s and 1970s with the ascendance of Solow’s neoclassical model of growth, and the development of the ‘basic needs’ approach to welfare economics. Aid policies changed focus, and a higher percentage of funds were devoted to social programmes (health and education), programmes aimed at directly reducing poverty, and programmes that strengthened skills and human capital.

Further changes in aid policy came with research that related openness and exports’ expansion to productivity growth. The work of Anne Krueger and Jagdish Bhagwati was particularly important. During the 1980s and 1990s, international assistance became increasingly conditioned on the recipient countries liberalising their economies through the elimination of quantitative import restrictions and the lowering of import tariffs.

The development of the ‘dependent economy’ macroeconomic model, with tradable and nontradable goods, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, helped put emphasis on the crucial role of the real exchange rate in the resource allocation process. Works by Robert Mundell, Rudi Dornbusch, and others pointed out that real exchange rate overvaluation was costly and at the heart of devastating currency crises. These works, in conjunction with research undertaken by Robert Bates and Elliot Berg, among others, influenced aid agencies’ views regarding currencies, incentives, exports, and agriculture. The very poor performance of the agricultural sector between 1965 and 1985 in most regions – and in particular in Africa – also affected thinking in the aid agencies, and contributed to a new view that emphasised ‘getting prices right’.

In the 1990s, two research lines influenced aid policy.

• Work on incentive compatibility and strategic behaviour persuaded aid officials in donor countries to become more flexible, and to incorporate recipient governments in the design and management of aid programmes.

This approach received the name of ‘programme ownership’, and has been at the heart of improved relations between donors and poor nations in the last two decades.

• New research on capital mobility and the international transmission of crises, resulted in a more nuanced and pragmatic view regarding the use of capital controls.

Many agencies – including the IMF and the World Bank – supported a limited use of capital controls (especially controls on capital inflows) and so-called macro-prudential regulations, as a way of avoiding destabilising forces and currency crises.

Econometric studies

Academic and aid-community economists have used a battery of econometric methods to analyse whether aid is effective in the sense of generating higher growth and better economic outcomes.[9] Some of these studies have tried to tackle issues of reverse causality, and have used a series of instruments – some more convincing than others – in an attempt to deal with the fact that slower growth (in very poor countries) may attract additional aid.

Some research focused on whether aid only works under certain conditions, or whether a minimal degree of institutional development is required for international assistance to bear fruit (Burnside and Dollar 2000, 2004). Many of these studies have considered nonlinear functional forms, and have investigated if there are meaningful interactions between aid and other variables, such as the degree of literacy, the level of corruption, the extent of macroeconomic stability, institutional strength, the quality of overall economic policies, and geography.

In general, most studies have relied on cross-country or panel data, and have attempted to distinguish between short- and long-term impacts. A number of authors have used ‘Dutch disease’-related models to analyse the extent to which increased aid results in currency overvaluation, poor exports performance, and crises – see Rajan and Subramanian (2011).

Fragile and inconclusive results

Overall, the results from this large body of research have been fragile and inconclusive.

After analysing 97 studies, Doucouliagos and Paldam (2008, 2009) concluded that, in the best of cases, it was possible to say that there was a small positive, and yet statistically insignificant, relationship between official aid and growth.

This conclusion was also reached by Rajan and Subramanian (2008) in an analysis that corrected for potential endogeneity problems, and that considered a comprehensive number of covariates. In particular, according to this study there is no clear relation running from more aid to faster growth; this is true even in countries with better policy environment and stronger institutions – see also Rajan and Subramanian (2008) and Quibria (2014).

Bourguignon and Sundberg (2007) have argued that one should not be surprised by the inconclusiveness of studies that rely on aggregate data.

According to them, aid affects economic performance, directly and indirectly, through a variety of channels. Treating all aid as homogeneous – independently of whether it is emergency assistance, programme aid, or project-based aid – is misleading. In their view it is necessary to break open the ‘black box’ of international aid, and deconstruct the causality chain that goes, in intricate and non-obvious ways, from aid to policymakers, to policies, and to country outcomes. This type of analysis would explore a number of specific ways in which international assistance could impact economic performance. In particular, according to Bourguignon and Sundberg (2007) it is important that studies that try to determine the impact of aid on growth consider issues related to technical assistance, conditionality, level of understanding of the economy in question, and the government’s ability to implement specific policies.[10]

Bitter policy controversy

In spite of its intensity, the academic debate pales in comparison with recent policy controversies on the subject. The level of animosity in this veritable war of ideas is illustrated by the following quote from an article by Jeffrey Sachs published in 2009:

“Moyo’s views [are] cruel and mistaken… [Moyo and Easterly are] trying to pull up the ladder for those still left behind.”[11]

Easterly’s reply, also from 2009, was equally strong:

“Jeffrey Sachs [is]… the world’s leading apologist and fund-raiser for the aid establishment… Sachs suffers from [an]… acute shortage of truthiness…”[12]

The Easterly–Sachs debate has generated public attention because it has been couched in rather simple terms. These are simple narratives based on ethnographic arguments that resonate with large segments of the general public. But behind the different positions there are hundreds of academic studies – most of them based on advanced econometric techniques – that have tried to determine the extent to which foreign aid is effective. The problem, as noted, is that much of this body of empirical work has resulted in fragile and inconclusive evidence.

Intermediate positions

For an increasing number of economists, the issue of aid effectiveness is neither black nor white. Indeed, a number of authors have taken intermediate positions. For example, in an influential book that deals with the plight of the poorest of the poor, Collier (2009) has argued that both critics and staunch supporters of official aid have greatly exaggerated their claims and distorted the empirical and historical records.

Collier’s reading of the evidence is that over the last 30 years official assistance has helped accelerate GDP growth among the poorest nations in the world – most of them in Africa – by approximately 1% per year. This is a nontrivial figure, especially when one considers that during this period the poorest countries have had an aggregate rate of per capita growth of zero. That is, in the absence of official assistance, the billion people that live in these nations – the so-called ‘bottom billion’ – would have seen their incomes retrogress year after year.

Banerjee and Duflo (2011) argue that there is need for a “radical rethinking of the way to fight poverty.” In their view, the acrimonious debate between the Easterly and Sachs factions has missed the boat. Banerjee and Duflo join a growing group of researchers in arguing that this controversy cannot be solved in the abstract, by using aggregate data and cross-country regressions. The evidence, in their view, is quite simple – some projects financed by official aid work and are effective in reducing poverty and moving the domestic populations towards self-sufficiency and prosperity, while other projects (and programmes) fail miserably. The question is not how aggregate aid programmes have fared in the past, but how to evaluate whether specific programmes are effective.

Persuasive ‘aid narratives’

In Edwards (2014b) I discuss the effectiveness-of-aid literature from a historical perspective, and I argue that international aid affects recipient economies in extremely complex ways and through multiple and changing channels. Moreover, this is a two-way relationship – aid agencies influence policies, and the reality in the recipient country affects the actions of aid agencies. This relationship is so intricate and time-dependent that it is not amenable to being captured by cross-country or panel regressions; in fact, even sophisticated specifications with multiple breakpoints and nonlinearities are unlikely to explain the inner workings of the aid–performance connection.

Bourguignon and Sundberg (2007) have pointed out that there is a need to go beyond econometrics, and to break open the ‘black box’ of development aid. I would go even further, and argue that we need to realise that there is a multiplicity of black boxes. Or, to put it differently, that the black box is highly elastic and keeps changing through time. Breaking these boxes open and understanding why aid works some times and not others, and why some projects are successful while other are disasters, requires analysing in great detail specific country episodes. If we want to truly understand the convoluted ways in which official aid affects different economic outcomes, we need to plunge into archives, analyse data in detail, carefully look for counterfactuals, understand the temperament of the major players, and take into account historical circumstances. This is a difficult subject that requires detective-like work.

About the author:
Sebastian Edwards
Henry Ford II Professor of International Economics at the University of California, Los Angeles

References:
Banerjee, A and E Duflo (2011), Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of The Way to Fight Global Poverty, New York: Public Affairs.

Barder, O (2005), “Reforming Development Assistance: Lessons from the UK Experience”, Center for Global Development Working Paper 70.

Bates, R (1981), Markets and States in Tropical Africa: The Political Basis of Agricultural Policies, 2nd edition from 2005, Berkeley: University of California Press.

Bhagwati, J (1978), Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.

Bourguignon, F and M Sundberg (2007), “Aid Effectiveness: Opening the Black Box”, American Economic Review 97(2): 316–321.

Burnside, C and D Dollar (2000), “Aid, policies, and growth”, American Economic Review: 847–868.

Burnside, C and D Dollar (2004), “Aid, policies, and growth: reply”, American Economic Review: 781–784.

Collier, P (2007), The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Doucouliagos, H and M Paldam (2008), “Aid effectiveness on growth: A meta study”, European Journal of Political Economy 24(1): 1–24.

Doucouliagos, H and M Paldam (2009), “The aid effectiveness literature: The sad results of 40 years of research”, Journal of Economic Surveys 23(3): 433–461.

Easterly, W (2009), “Sachs Ironies: Why Critics are Better for Foreign Aid than Apologists”, Huffington Post, 25 May.

Easterly, W (2014), The tyranny of experts: Economists, dictators, and the forgotten rights of the poor, Basic Books.

Edwards, S (2014a), Toxic Aid: Economic Collapse and Recovery in Tanzania, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Edwards, S (2014b), “Economic Development and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid: A Historical Perspective”, NBER Working Paper 20685.

Guillaumont, P and L Wagner (2014), “Aid effectiveness for poverty reduction: lessons from cross-country analyses, with a special focus on vulnerable countries”, Revue d’économie du développement 22: 217–261.

Krueger, A (1978), Liberalization Attempts and Consequences, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.

Moyo, D (2010), Dead Aid: Why Aid Makes Things Worse and How There Is Another Way for Africa, London: Penguin Books.

Mundell, R A (1962), “The appropriate use of monetary and fiscal policy for internal and external stability”, Staff Papers – International Monetary Fund 9(1): 70–79.

Quibria, M G (2014), “Aid effectiveness: research, policy and unresolved issues”, Development Studies Research: An Open Access Journal 1(1): 75–87.

Radelet, S (2006), “A Primer on Aid Allocation”, Center for Global Development Working Paper 92.

Radelet, S, M Clemens, and R Bhavnani (2005), “Aid and Growth: The Current Debate and Some New Evidence”, in P Isard et al. (eds.), Macroeconomic Management of Foreign Aid: Opportunities and Pitfalls, Washington, DC: IMF.

Rajan, R and A Subramanian (2008), “Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?”, Review of Economics and Statistics 90(4): 643–665.

Rajan, R G and A Subramanian (2011), “Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth”, Journal of Development Economics 94(1): 106–118.

Sachs, J (2005), The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time, New York: Penguin Press.

Sachs, J (2009), “Aid Ironies”, Huffington Post, 24 May.

Smith, A (1977 [1776]), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Stiglitz, J (2002), Globalization and Its Discontents, W M Norton.

Truman, H (1949), Inaugural Address, 20 January.

World Bank (1981), Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Agenda for Action (The Berg Report), Washington, DC: World Bank.

Footnotes

[1] For a detailed discussion of these issues see Edwards (2014b).

[2] The analysis in this section doesn’t pretend to be exhaustive. I don’t attempt to deal with every aspect of aid-related controversies. Readers interested in the intricacies of international assistance may consult some of the very thorough surveys on the subject, including two comprehensive articles by Radelet (2005, 2006) and Quibria (2014), and the extensive literature cited therein.

[3] In many ways this analysis is remarkably modern. Smith argues that the main reason why the English colonies of North America had done significantly better than the Spanish dominions of South America was that “the political institutions of the English colonies have been more favourable to the improvement and cultivation of this land than those of the [Spanish colonies].” Smith goes on to list a number of policies implemented by the British – including tax, inheritance, and trade policies – that, in his view, explain the economic success in what was to become the US; in parallel, he discusses how poor policies enacted by the Dutch and the Spanish – and to a lesser extent by the French – stifled growth and progress in their dominions. Although this chapter runs for almost 100 pages, there is not even a mild suggestion that the home nation should provide systematic financial assistance to its colonies.

[4] The Colonial Development Act created the Colonial Development Fund with resources of one million pounds sterling per year. Although this Act intended to improve the social conditions in the colonies – especially in the rural sector – its main objective was to promote British exports at a time when the overvaluation of the pound had greatly reduced British competitiveness. Until the passing of this legislation the colonies were supposed to be, largely, self-financing, and any aid was confined to emergencies.

[5] Barder (2005: 3), emphasis added.

[6] The Marshall Plan, which was announced by US Secretary of State George C. Marshall in a speech at Harvard University on 5 June 1947, played an important role in defining US policy towards foreign aid.

[7] He then added that “more than half the people of the world are living in conditions approaching misery… For the first time in history, humanity possesses the knowledge and the skill to relieve the suffering of these people.”

[8] In 1946 France created its first aid agency (FIDES), which in 1963 was replaced by the Ministry of Cooperation. The Nordic countries created their own aid agencies in 1962.

[9] See Guillaumont and Wagner (2014) and Quibria (2014) for comprehensive recent reviews. See, also, Johnson and Subramanian (2005), Rajan and Subramanian (2008), Collier and Dollar (2004), Bourgouignon and Saunders (2007), and Quibria (2014), and the literature cited therein. See Booth (2012) for a discussion on aid effectiveness and governance.

[10] See Quibria (2014) and Edwards (2014a, 2014b) for discussions of these issues.

[11] Sachs (2009).

[12] Easterly (2009, 2014).

The post Economic Development And Effectiveness Of Foreign Aid: A Historical Perspective appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday while he welcomed the decision of the Qatari Court of Appeals to overturn the conviction of Matthew and Grace Huang, he was concerned about the ability of the couple to leave the country.

The Huang’s are American citizens and were tried for allegedly starving their adopted daughter to death in 2013. Despite the ruling by the Qatari Court of Appeals, local media is reporting that the Huang’s were unable to leave Qatar on Sunday after their passports were confiscated at the Hamad International Airport.

Qatar

“The thoroughly documented findings of the court clearly establish the Huang’s innocence,” Kerry said. “The 22 long months of court proceedings following their daughter’s tragic death have compounded the tragedy for the Huang family, and it is time now, as the Appeals Court stated, to let the Huangs return home.”

Kerry said that the US is deeply concerned about new delays that have prevented the Huang’s departure.

Kerry added that he has spoken with Qatari Foreign Minister Attiya and called on the Qatar government to immediately implement the court’s decision and permit the Huang’s return to the US without further delay.

The Huang’s were originally convicted and sentenced to three years in prison last March by a Qatari court.

The post Kerry Welcomes Qatar Court Overturning Verdict In Trial Of Matthew And Grace Huang appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Neil Thompson

Three years after the onset of the Arab Spring, headlines are still focused on the security threat of revolutionary Islamist militant groups. But we may be overlooking the rise of new social forces which are equally threatening to global security: Middle Eastern transnational criminal networks.

In many places, the revolution promised by the Arab Spring has failed or ended half-way. The resulting toxic combination of broken economic and political systems, geographical proximity to lucrative European black markets, and a youthful and often traumatized population is an open invitation for criminal groups to fill the vacuum of state authority. Similar circumstances produced generational crime waves of extraordinary virulence in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and Latin America, which those areas are still coping with today. It is quite possible that the Middle East is poised to follow in their footsteps.

What factors expose the Middle East to a rise in the strength and power of organized transnational criminal networks?

There are two ominous sets of factors facilitating their growth: situational factors and recruiting factors. Situational factors are those encouraging the economic growth of organized crime groups, and recruiting factors are those facilitating individuals’ entry into criminal organizations.

Here are some situational factors currently present in the Middle East:

1. Porous borders & geographical proximity to contraband markets. The Middle East is already a hub for human-trafficking operations to Europe. States such as Lebanon and Morocco have also been major sources of supply and smuggling routes for illegal drugs in the past. Not much has changed in this regard, except perhaps that today distracted regional governments perform an even weaker job of border security.
2. Penetration/cooperation of existing central & local authorities. Aggravating the region’s unfortunate proximity to the lucrative contraband markets of Europe is a lack of effective governmental authority throughout the Middle East, which fuels the corruption that allows criminal groups to subvert the institutions meant to control them.
3. A war economy/large black market sector. The prevalence of a large informal economy throughout the region, combined with a growing war economy in certain conflict zones, is a boon to black market operations. The hawala money changing system is one example of informal businesses that can facilitate criminal groups’ opportunities for growth.
4. Lack of effective law enforcement. Law enforcement in the region, already in an abysmal state, is still politicized and too often focused on persecuting political dissidents or ‘anti-terrorist’ security operations.

And some recruiting factors:

1. High youth unemployment. The Middle East has a youthful population and persistently low rates of economic growth. Given the low barriers to criminal economic growth outlined above, a flow of recruits to some of the few economic agents offering lucrative employment opportunities is guaranteed.
2. High availability of military arms and trained individuals. From Russia to Columbia, the demobilization or disbandment of armed organizations has created a pool of individuals who may struggle to adapt to civilian life and who also possess skills useful in the criminal sector. As the Arab Spring fades we will start to see this process in the Middle East. The emergence of Algerian militants as major players in West Africa’s criminal underworld after the end of the Algerian civil war in 2002 is a case in point.
3. Social and psychological trauma. A rootless and fragmented social situation prevails in parts of the Middle East, where conflict has created many alienated and disturbed individuals. Such dangerous and isolating conditions are fertile ground for the creation of criminal gangs, many of which have their beginnings in partisan groups formed for self-defense, which can provide their members with a sense of belonging.

The above is by no means an exhaustive list; other factors from around the region such as better communications technology and environmental stress (especially on water) could also be added.

The unsettled end of social upheavals are often marked with a crime wave as individuals turn skills learned during war to private use. Given poor economic prospects, a large black market economy and with large numbers of guerrillas, paramilitaries, soldiers and secret policemen looking for new opportunities as the Arab Spring dies down, the chances in the region for an explosive growth of organized crime groups are huge. Central authority in Libya, Iraq and Syria has already broken down; in Egypt, Algeria, and Lebanon it is compromised or weak. In a globalizing world, the networking impulses that have created transnational supply chains for contraband goods stretching thousands of miles are sure to blur the distinctions between state and non-state actor, law enforcer, rebel and criminal.

The persistence of tribal or clan-based identities in much of the region does geographically limit some present criminal operations to their group’s territory, for example the farming families involved in the drug trade in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. Yet Lebanon has also produced the clandestine-organized, highly-structured and certainly international Hezbollah movement, one of the world’s most sophisticated and successful non-state actors. If modern Middle Eastern societies are able to create high functioning transnational militant networks, their criminal elements are clearly capable of doing the same. There is no reason to suppose the emergence of factors favorable to the growth of mafia-type groups in the region will not spread to impact on the West in the future. Globalization means that while our decisions still have a huge impact on conditions in the Middle East, that process is a two-way street today.

Alas, the present conflation of Middle Eastern criminal activity with Islamic terrorist networks hampers Westerners’ ability to recognize today’s preexisting regional organized crime rings as independent agents. Unlike their Latin American, Italian, Balkan and ‘Eurasian’ (FSU) cousins, Middle Eastern criminal enterprises attract little Western attention. They are often still the poor cousins of security threats, their illegal activities cloaked beneath the aegis of hostile regional governments or militant groups. But the day is coming when they will no longer need their sponsors and can form their own independent organizations. If the Western intelligence community is not to be taken by surprise as it was by Eurasian organized crime in the 1990s, it would do well to start preparing some hefty files now on Middle Eastern underworld figures. They may soon need them.

This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com.

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The Vatican has released the full text of the “Ecumenical Blessing And Signing Of Common Declaration”  by Pope Francis and Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I issued in Istanbul, Turkey on Sunday.

The full text is as follows:

Pope Francis And Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I

We, Pope Francis and Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, express our profound gratitude to God for the gift of this new encounter enabling us, in the presence of the members of the Holy Synod, the clergy and the faithful of the Ecumenical Patriarchate, to celebrate together the feast of Saint Andrew, the first–called and brother of the Apostle Peter. Our remembrance of the Apostles, who proclaimed the good news of the Gospel to the world through their preaching and their witness of martyrdom, strengthens in us the aspiration to continue to walk together in order to overcome, in love and in truth, the obstacles that divide us.

On the occasion of our meeting in Jerusalem last May, in which we remembered the historical embrace of our venerable predecessors Pope Paul VI and the Ecumenical Patriarch Athenagoras, we signed a joint declaration. Today on the happy occasion of this further fraternal encounter, we wish to re–affirm together our shared intentions and concerns.

We express our sincere and firm resolution, in obedience to the will of our Lord Jesus Christ, to intensify our efforts to promote the full unity of all Christians, and above all between Catholics and Orthodox. As well, we intend to support the theological dialogue promoted by the Joint International Commission, instituted exactly thirty–five years ago by the Ecumenical Patriarch Dimitrios and Pope John Paul II here at the Phanar, and which is currently dealing with the most difficult questions that have marked the history of our division and that require careful and detailed study. To this end, we offer the assurance of our fervent prayer as Pastors of the Church, asking our faithful to join us in praying “that all may be one, that the world may believe” (Jn 17:21).

We express our common concern for the current situation in Iraq, Syria and the whole Middle East. We are united in the desire for peace and stability and in the will to promote the resolution of conflicts through dialogue and reconciliation. While recognizing the efforts already being made to offer assistance to the region, at the same time, we call on all those who bear responsibility for the destiny of peoples to deepen their commitment to suffering communities, and to enable them, including the Christian ones, to remain in their native land. We cannot resign ourselves to a Middle East without Christians, who have professed the name of Jesus there for two thousand years. Many of our brothers and sisters are being persecuted and have been forced violently from their homes. It even seems that the value of human life has been lost, that the human person no longer matters and may be sacrificed to other interests. And, tragically, all this is met by the indifference of many. As Saint Paul reminds us, “If one member suffers, all suffer together; if one member is honoured, all rejoice together” (1 Cor 12:26). This is the law of the Christian life, and in this sense we can say that there is also an ecumenism of suffering. Just as the blood of the martyrs was a seed of strength and fertility for the Church, so too the sharing of daily sufferings can become an effective instrument of unity. The terrible situation of Christians and all those who are suffering in the Middle East calls not only for our constant prayer, but also for an appropriate response on the part of the international community.

The grave challenges facing the world in the present situation require the solidarity of all people of good will, and so we also recognize the importance of promoting a constructive dialogue with Islam based on mutual respect and friendship. Inspired by common values and strengthened by genuine fraternal sentiments, Muslims and Christians are called to work together for the sake of justice, peace and respect for the dignity and rights of every person, especially in those regions where they once lived for centuries in peaceful coexistence and now tragically suffer together the horrors of war. Moreover, as Christian leaders, we call on all religious leaders to pursue and to strengthen interreligious dialogue and to make every effort to build a culture of peace and solidarity between persons and between peoples. We also remember all the people who experience the sufferings of war. In particular, we pray for peace in Ukraine, a country of ancient Christian tradition, while we call upon all parties involved to pursue the path of dialogue and of respect for international law in order to bring an end to the conflict and allow all Ukrainians to live in harmony.

Our thoughts turn to all the faithful of our Churches throughout the world, whom we greet, entrusting them to Christ our Saviour, that they may be untiring witnesses to the love of God. We raise our fervent prayer that the Lord may grant the gift of peace in love and unity to the entire human family.

“May the Lord of peace himself give you peace at all times and in every way. The Lord be with all of you” (2 Thess 3:16).

From the Phanar, 30 November 2014

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By Amit Gupta

In 1972, Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong signed the Shanghai communique that resulted in a simple but brilliant bargain between the US and China. The US agreed to recognise China and give up propping up the regime in Taipei as the legitimate government of China and Beijing agreed not to pursue hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. The agreement, as Australian scholar Hugh White has argued, led to forty years of regional peace and prosperity with China eventually benefitting enough to become the second-largest economy in the world. The foundation of the Shanghai communique, however, has started to crack and led in part to the incumbent US President Barack Obama’s government decision to pivot to Asia. But it may well be a case of too little too late as Asia seeks to move to a new regional economic and political structure.

The Unravelling of the Cold War Order

For a number reasons the old Cold War order has begun to unravel in the Asia-Pacific region and, therefore, allowed China to challenge the status quo that was in the US’ favour. First, China’s military capabilities have improved to the extent that the US can no longer contain from a chain of nation states that extend from Japan to the Philippines. China’s development of robust missile and anti-satellite capabilities have substantially raised Washington’s costs to employ power in the region. That said, China is a long way from being in the position to launch a global military challenge the US. Therefore, it has instead sought to use the forces of globalisation to improve Beijing’s global position while seeking to lessen that of Washington’s. Thus, China has developed a set of regional economic interdependencies that have made the future prosperity of Asian countries dependent on the continued growth and prosperity of the Chinese economy.

Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Malaysia, among others, now have China as their largest trading partner despite, in some cases, having free trade agreements or strategic alliances with the US. This has led to the emergence of contradictory strategic objectives for some of these countries. Australia remains a major strategic ally of the US and was one of the countries that welcomed the pivot to Asia and the rotation of the US Marines via Darwin. But, simultaneously, Canberra is acutely aware that good economic relations with an economically robust China is vital to the Australian national interest. Australia escaped the great recession of 2008 because China ramped up its purchase of Australian natural resources, and, more recently, the Australian economy is in the doldrums because China has reduced its imports from Australia.

Additionally, China is now trying to create alternatives to the US dollar as the international reserve currency by engaging in currency swaps with some Southeast Asian countries and Australia.

Finally, Beijing has now become the largest provider of economic projects and investments across Asia and the fact that Chinese entrepreneurs are now engaging in serious innovation will only increase Beijing’s ability to use its economic capabilities to gain regional clout. New Delhi, despite all the problems with China, actually expected a much larger foreign direct investment package to be offered by Xi Jinping during his visit earlier this year.

The problem for Beijing lies in the fact that while regional nations welcome its economic dynamism they worry about its political and military muscle flexing and that is why the US decision to pivot to Asia was tacitly welcomed by so many countries for it was seen as counter-balancing Beijing.

China’s long-term objective is to create a post-American order in the region and for that aspiration to succeed it will have to tone down its bellicosity and strive for rapid economic development in Asia. The role model for Beijing in this case has to be Germany which gave up its imperial claims and military prowess after World War II to become the most influential economic actor in Europe – and some would argue that continent’s banker. Beijing can bring about a similar economic structure in Asia if it starts to look forward economically while downplaying and eventually settling border disputes that do little to enhance China’s security but do much to aggravate it.

Amit Gupta
Associate Professor, Department of International Security, USAF Air War College, Alabama

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Air Force or the Department of Defense.

The post A German Model For China’s Post-American Order Ambitions? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Gulshan Dietl

The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has come to the present stage in its evolution within a remarkably compressed time-frame. Although the idea was first mooted by the Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbaev in 1994, it lay in hibernation until late 2011 when Vladimir Putin revived the idea. Visualising the EEU as one of the major centres of economic power alongside the European Union (EU), the US, China and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Putin initiated the process of its implementation. In November 2011, the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus signed an agreement to establish the Eurasian Economic Space (EES) that would graduate towards the Eurasian Union. The EES came into existence on 1 January 2012.

The project has since been rechristened the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which has been established by a treaty signed between the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus on 29 May 2014. The EEU was enlarged to include Armenia on 9 October 2014. Kyrgyzstan is in the process of implementing the roadmap to accession and hopes to sign the treaty by the end of the year. The EEU will officially come into existence on 1 January 2015 after ratification by member parliaments.

Eurasian Union: The Origins, Rationale and Organization

On the ground, the “Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus” already existed when Putin explicated his vision. The Treaty envisaged a federation between the two countries with a common constitution, flag, national anthem, citizenship, currency, president, parliament and army. On 26 January 2000, the Treaty came into effect after the due ratification by the Russian Duma and the Belarus Assembly. Russia and Belarus became a single political entity. Whether the Treaty laid down a proto Eurasian Union remained to be seen.

The EU announcement in 2008 of its Eastern Partnership Programme (EPP) may have inspired the Russian drive towards reintegration of the Eurasian space. The EPP was initiated to improve political and economic relations between the EU and six “strategic” post-Soviet states — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine — in the core areas of democracy, the rule of law, human rights, the promotion of market economy, and sustainable development. There was much debate over whether to include Belarus, whose authoritarian dictatorship disqualified it. The eventual invitation to Belarus was driven by the concern over an excessive Russian influence in that country. On 21 March 2014, Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia signed association agreements with the European Union – thus ruling out their membership of the EEU.

China is emerging as a serious player in the region through its heavy investments in energy and infrastructure. The Free Trade Zone in Khorgos on the Kazakh-Chinese border alone poses a serious economic challenge to Russian interests. The vast 528-hectare territory, officially called the International Centre for Boundary Cooperation, opened in December 2011, letting enormous amounts of Chinese goods enter Kazakhstan; and transiting from there to Germany. For Russia, it represented a surreptitious Chinese entry into the Eurasian space.

The US plan to deploy the NATO missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic was already a source of concern for the Russians. The Russian determination to keep the post-Soviet states away from the US, the EU and China made Eurasian integration a priority in its foreign policy.

The Eurasian Economic Union is an economic grouping. Its objective is to expand markets and rebuild some of the manufacturing chains destroyed by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Eurasian Customs Union has set the process toward this goal. It has created a single market of 170 million consumers, a common customs code, a common customs tariff, common foreign trade and customs regulations, and a common legal framework of technical regulations.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), the governing body of the European Economic Space is set up in Moscow for the time being. Kazakhstan has already staked claim to host the permanent headquarters. The formula under which the 350-member body would be filled has been worked out on the basis of the population of the member countries. The expenses towards accommodation and infrastructure would be borne by Russia.

The Supreme Eurasian Economic Union Council will be the apex body of the group. The vice-premiers of the three countries would be leading their countries’ delegations in this body. There are differing opinions on the powers of its apex body.
EEU versus EU

In many respects, the EEU and the EU are mirror images in their ambitions and activities. The EEU is, at times, called the Eastern Empire or the East’s EU. They remain competitors and adversaries, nonetheless. The total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the EEU stands at 3 trillion dollars, which is roughly one-fifth the GDP generated by the EU. In terms of economic strength, therefore, the competition is between two highly unequal adversaries.

The West sees the Eurasian integration initiative as an opportunistic attempt by Russia to increase its influence in the post-Soviet region. Putin’s perception of the EU, on the other hand, is more nuanced. He boasts about the compressed time frame in which the EEU has evolved compared to the EU; but also shows willingness to learn from the earlier experience of the latter.

Eurasian Member States: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan

The Russians aim to retain the former Soviet space within their own sphere of influence, seeking to diminish the US, Chinese and the EU presence to the extent possible. The Kazakhs are keeping all their options open: seeking a central role in the US-sponsored war on terror and the New Silk Road, permitting pervasive Chinese presence in their economy, promoting bilateral and institutional ties with the EU, and becoming a member of the Eurasian Union. “Diversify” is the name of the Kazakh game. Belarus is landlocked and dependent on Russia for its trade exports and imports, and the Belarus president is persona non grata in much of the West. Under the circumstances, the Eurasian Union is a solution to much of its problems. Armenia is caught up in the issue of the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh inside Azerbaijan and its resultant adverse economic consequences; and Kyrgyzstan is chafing under the presence of its big neighbour China. Armenia seeks economic succour and Kyrgyzstan desires security assurances.

Conclusions and Queries

There is no Eurasian Economic Union till date. And yet, it has been the subject of intense scholarly scrutiny as also of prescriptive analysis. Its future membership, the direction of its evolution and the gamut of its activities must remain matters of speculation in the meanwhile. In lieu of final conclusions, a few hard queries need to be raised.

The first, and the most obvious, is its rechristening. The original version the “Eurasian Union” has now been watered down to “Eurasian Economic Union”. It is believed that it was the Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev who lobbied hard to insert the word “economic” in the title.

A second query facing the EEU is whether it aims at a reincarnation of the Soviet Union minus the Marxist ideology. Some in Russia assert that the term “union” symbolically harkens back to the Soviet Union; many outside Russia fear that it could be so.

And the last query before the EEU is obvious. What will Russia get from subsidising the poorer economies? Only time will tell.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/EurasianEconomicUnion_gdietl_011214.html

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“The Fed’s ‘need’ to take on an even more active role as foreigners further slow the purchases of our paper is to put the pedal to the metal on the currency debasement race now being run in the developed world — a race which is speeding us all toward the end of the present currency regime.” – Stephanie Pomboy, MacroMavens

“No matter what our Western counterparts tell us, we can see what’s going on. NATO is blatantly building up its forces in Eastern Europe, including the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea areas. Its operational and combat training activities are gaining in scale.” – Russian President Vladimir Putin

If there was a way the United States could achieve its long-term strategic objectives and, at the same time, avoid a war with Russia, it would so. Unfortunately, that is not an option, which is why there’s going to be a clash between the two nuclear-armed adversaries sometime in the near future.

Let me explain: The Obama administration is trying to rebalance US policy in a way that shifts the focus of attention from the Middle East to Asia, which is expected to be the fastest growing region in the coming century. This policy-change is called the “pivot” to Asia. In order to benefit from Asia’s surge of growth, the US plans to beef up its presence on the continent, expand its military bases, strengthen bilateral alliances and trade agreements, and assume the role of regional security kingpin. The not-so-secret purpose of the policy is China “containment”, that is, Washington wants to preserve its position as the world’s only superpower by controlling China’s explosive growth. (The US wants a weak, divided China that will do what it’s told.)

In order to achieve its goals in Asia, the US needs to push NATO further eastward, tighten its encirclement of Russia, and control the flow of oil and gas from east to west. These are the necessary preconditions for establishing US hegemonic rule over the continent. And this is why the Obama administration is so invested in Kiev’s blundering junta-government; it’s because Washington needs Poroshenko’s neo Nazi shock troops to draw Russia into a conflagration in Ukraine that will drain its resources, discredit Putin in the eyes of his EU trading partners, and create the pretext for deploying NATO to Russia’s western border.

The idea that Obama’s proxy army in Ukraine is defending the country’s sovereignty is pure bunkum. What’s going on below the surface is the US is trying to stave off irreversible economic decline and an ever-shrinking share of global GDP through military force. What we’re seeing in Ukraine today, is a 21st century version of the Great Game implemented by political fantasists and Koolaid drinkers who think they can turn the clock back to the post WW2 heyday of the US Empire when the world was America’s oyster. Thankfully, that period is over.

Keep in mind, the glorious US military has spent the last 13 years fighting sheep herders in flip-flops in Afghanistan in a conflict that, at best, could be characterized as a stalemate. And now the White House wants to take on Russia?

Can you appreciate the insanity of the policy?

This is why Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel was sacked last week, because he wasn’t sufficiently eager to pursue this madcap policy of escalating the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Ukraine. Everyone knows it’s true, the administration hasn’t even tried to deny it. They’d rather stick with foam-at-the-mouth buffoons, like Susan Rice and Samantha Powers, then a decorated veteran who has more credibility and intelligence in his little finger than Obama’s whole National Security team put together.

So now Obama is completely surrounded by rabid warmongering imbeciles, all of whom ascribe to the same fairytale that the US is going to dust-off Russia, remove Assad, redraw the map of the Middle East, control the flow of gas and oil from the ME to markets in the EU, and establish myriad beachheads across Asia where they can keep a tight grip on China’s growth.

Tell me, dear reader, doesn’t that strike you as a bit improbable?

But, of course, the Obama claque think it’s all within their grasp, because, well, because that’s what they’ve been told to think, and because that’s what the US has to do if it wants to maintain its exalted position as the world’s lone superpower when its economic significance in the world is steadily declining. You see, here’s the thing: The exceptional nation is becoming more unexceptional all the time, and that’s what has the political class worried, because they see the handwriting on the wall, and the writing says, “Enjoy it while it lasts, buddy, cuz you ain’t gonna be numero uno much longer.”

And the US has allies in this wacky crusade too, notably Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have been particularly helpful lately by flooding the market with oil to push down prices and crush the Russian economy. (On Friday, Benchmark crude oil prices plummeted to a four-year low, with Brent crude sinking to $69.11 a barrel.) The Obama administration is using the classic one-two punch of economic sanctions and plunging oil revenues to bully Moscow into withdrawing from Crimea so Washington can move its nuclear arsenal to within spitting distance of Moscow. Here’s a bit of background from the Guardian:

“Think about how the Obama administration sees the state of the world. It wants Tehran to come to heel over its nuclear programme. It wants Vladimir Putin to back off in eastern Ukraine. But after recent experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, the White House has no desire to put American boots on the ground. Instead, with the help of its Saudi ally, Washington is trying to drive down the oil price by flooding an already weak market with crude. As the Russians and the Iranians are heavily dependent on oil exports, the assumption is that they will become easier to deal with.

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, allegedly struck a deal with King Abdullah in September under which the Saudis would sell crude at below the prevailing market price. That would help explain why the price has been falling at a time when, given the turmoil in Iraq and Syria caused by Islamic State, it would normally have been rising.” (Stakes are high as US plays the oil card against Iran and Russia, Larry Eliot, Guardian)

And here’s more from Salon’s Patrick L. Smith at Salon:

“Less than a week after the Minsk Protocol was signed, Kerry made a little-noted trip to Jeddah to see King Abdullah at his summer residence. When it was reported at all, this was put across as part of Kerry’s campaign to secure Arab support in the fight against the Islamic State.

Stop right there. That is not all there was to the visit, my trustworthy sources tell me. The other half of the visit had to do with Washington’s unabated desire to ruin the Russian economy. To do this, Kerry told the Saudis 1) to raise production and 2) to cut its crude price. Keep in mind these pertinent numbers: The Saudis produce a barrel of oil for less than $30 as break-even in the national budget; the Russians need $105.

Shortly after Kerry’s visit, the Saudis began increasing production, sure enough — by more than 100,000 barrels daily during the rest of September, more apparently to come…

Think about this. Winter is coming, there are serious production outages now in Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya, other OPEC members are screaming for relief, and the Saudis make back-to-back moves certain to push falling prices still lower? You do the math, with Kerry’s unreported itinerary in mind, and to help you along I offer this from an extremely well-positioned source in the commodities markets: “There are very big hands pushing oil into global supply now,” this source wrote in an e-mail note the other day.” (What Really Happened in Beijing: Putin, Obama, Xi And The Back Story The Media Won’t Tell You, Patrick L. Smith, Salon)

The Obama team managed to persuade our good buddies the Saudis to flood the market with oil, drive down prices, and put the Russian economy into a nosedive. At the same time, the US has intensified its economic sanctions, done everything in its power to sabotage Gazprom’s South Stream pipeline (that would bypass Ukraine and deliver natural gas to Europe via a southern route), and cajole the Ukrainian parliament into auctioning off 49 percent of the leasing rights and underground storage facilities to privately-owned foreign corporations.

How do you like that? So the US has launched a full-blown economic war against Russia that’s been completely omitted in the western media. Are you surprised?

Washington is determined to block further Russo-EU economic integration in order to collapse the Russian economy and put foreign capital in control of regional energy distribution. It’s all about the pivot. The big money guys figure the US has to pivot to Asia to be a player in the next century. All of these unprovoked attacks on Moscow are based on that one lunatic strategy.

But aren’t people in the EU going to be angry when they can’t get the energy they need (at the prices they want) to run their businesses and heat their homes?

Washington doesn’t think so. Washington thinks its allies in the Middle East can meet the EU’s energy needs without any difficulty. Check out this clip from an article by analyst F. William Engdahl:

“…details are emerging of a new secret and quite stupid Saudi-US deal on Syria and the so-called IS. It involves oil and gas control of the entire region and the weakening of Russia and Iran by Saudi Arabian flooding the world market with cheap oil. ….

On September 11, US Secretary of State Kerry met Saudi King Abdullah at his palace on the Red Sea. The King invited former head of Saudi intelligence, Prince Bandar to attend. There a deal was hammered out which saw Saudi support for the Syrian airstrikes against ISIS on condition Washington backed the Saudis in toppling Assad, a firm ally of Russia and de facto of Iran and an obstacle to Saudi and UAE plans to control the emerging EU natural gas market and destroy Russia’s lucrative EU trade. A report in the Wall Street Journal noted there had been “months of behind-the-scenes work by the US and Arab leaders, who agreed on the need to cooperate against Islamic State, but not how or when.

The process gave the Saudis leverage to extract a fresh US commitment to beef up training for rebels fighting Mr. Assad, whose demise the Saudis still see as a top priority.”
(The Secret Stupid Saudi-US Deal on Syria, F. William Engdahl, BFP)

So the wars in Ukraine and Syria are not really separate conflicts at all. They’re both part of the same global resource war the US has been prosecuting for the last decade and a half. The US plans to cut off the flow of Russian gas and replace it with gas from Qatar which will flow through Syria and onto the EU market after Assad is toppled.

Here’s what’s going on: Syria’s troubles began shortly after it announced that it was going to be part of an “Islamic pipeline” that would transfer natural gas from the South Pars gas field off the coast of Iran across Iraq and Syria, eventually connecting to Greece and the lucrative EU market. According to author Dmitri Minin:

“A gas pipeline from Iran would be highly profitable for Syria. Europe would gain from it as well, but clearly someone in the West didn’t like it. The West’s gas-supplying allies in the Persian Gulf weren’t happy with it either, nor was would-be no. 1 gas transporter Turkey, as it would then be out of the game.” (The Geopolitics of Gas and the Syrian Crisis: Syrian “Opposition” Armed to Thwart Construction of Iran-Iraq-Syria Gas Pipeline, Dmitri Minin, Global Research)

Two months after Assad signed the deal with Iraq and Iran, the rebellion broke out in Syria. That’s quite a coincidence, don’t you think? Funny how frequently those kinds of things happen when foreign leaders don’t march to Washington’s tune.

Here’s more from Minin:

“Qatar is doing all it can to thwart the construction of the pipeline, including arming the opposition fighters in Syria, many of whom come from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Libya…

The Arabic newspaper Al-Akhbar cites information according to which there is a plan approved by the U.S. government to create a new pipeline for transporting gas from Qatar to Europe involving Turkey and Israel…

This new pipeline is to begin in Qatar, cross Saudi territory and then the territory of Jordan, thus bypassing Shiite Iraq, and reach Syria. Near Homs the pipeline is to branch in three directions: to Latakia, Tripoli in northern Lebanon, and Turkey. Homs, where there are also hydrocarbon reserves, is the project’s main crossroads, and it is not surprising… that the fiercest fighting is taking place. Here the fate of Syria is being decided. The parts of Syrian territory where detachments of rebels are operating with the support of the U.S., Qatar and Turkey, that is, the north, Homs and the environs of Damascus, coincide with the route that the pipeline is to follow to Turkey and Tripoli, Lebanon. A comparison of a map of armed hostilities and a map of the Qatar pipeline route indicates a link between armed activities and the desire to control these Syrian territories. Qatar’s allies are trying to accomplish three goals: to break Russia’s gas monopoly in Europe; to free Turkey from its dependence on Iranian gas; and to give Israel the chance to export its gas to Europe by land at less cost.”

How do you like that; another coincidence: “The fiercest fighting (in Syria) is taking place” where there’s massive “hydrocarbon reserves” and along the planned pipeline route.

So the conflict in Syria isn’t really about terrorism at all. It’s about natural gas, competing pipelines and access to markets in the EU. It’s about money and power. The whole ISIS-thing is a big hoax to conceal what’s really going on, which is a global war for resources, more blood for oil.

But how does the US benefit from all of this, after all, won’t the gas revenues go to Qatar and the transit countries rather than the US?

Yep, they sure will. But the gas will also be denominated in dollars which will shore up demand for USDs thus perpetuating the petrodollar recycling system which creates a vast market for US debt and which helps to keep US stocks and bonds in the nosebleed section. And that’s what this is all about, preserving dollar supremacy by forcing nations to hold excessive amounts of USDs to use in their energy transactions and to service their dollar-denominated debts.

As long as Washington can control the world’s energy supplies and force the world to trade in dollars, it can spend well in excess of what it produces and not be held to account. It’s like having a credit card you never have to pay off.

That’s a racket Uncle Sam is prepared to defend with everything he’s got, even nukes.

The post Defending Dollar Imperialism – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Spanish government said Monday it welcomes the holding of the second round of legislative and municipal elections in the Kingdom of Bahrain on 29 November.

The Spanish government said in a statementit “congratulates the authorities and the various political forces and, in particular, all the members-elect of the National Assembly and of the local councils, to whom it conveys its wishes for a successful mandate in their new term of office for the benefit of all the citizens of Bahrain.”

At the same time, the Spanish government urged all stakeholders to firmly commit to a national dialogue process leading to consensus from all sectors of society, thus resulting in the adoption of the necessary reforms.

The post Spanish Government Welcomes Elections In Bahrain appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Research has identified, for the first time, how global warming is related to the amount of carbon emitted.

A team of researchers from the universities of Southampton, Bristol and Liverpool have derived the first theoretical equation to demonstrate that global warming is a direct result of the build-up of carbon emissions since the late 1800s when man-made carbon emissions began. The results are in accord with previous data from climate models.

The theoretical equation reveals the complex relationship between carbon dioxide levels and the ocean system. Burning fossil fuels increases atmospheric carbon dioxide levels leading to global warming and the greenhouse effect, which is partly offset by the oceans taking in both heat and carbon.

The results show every million-million tonnes of carbon emitted will generate one degree Celsius of global warming. They also show that the build-up of carbon emitted over the last 200 years will then last for many centuries to millennia, even if carbon emissions are subsequently phased out.

The results also reveal that surface warming is related to the total amount of carbon emitted from fossil fuels, with little change over time as ocean carbon and changes in heat uptake almost cancel each other out.

Dr Phil Goodwin, from Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton, said, “Our analysis highlights the nearly irreversible nature of carbon emissions for global warming. Once carbon has been emitted into the atmosphere the warming effect will last many centuries, even after much of the carbon has been absorbed by the ocean.”

“We cannot wait until after significant anthropogenic warming has occurred to reduce carbon emissions and hope the climate goes back to normal by itself, it won’t,” Goodwin said.

Professor Ric Williams, Chair in Ocean Sciences at the University of Liverpool’s School of Environmental Sciences, added, “Given the complexity of the climate system, it was a surprise to find out how simple the relationship is between global warming and how much carbon we emit.

“The ocean turns out to be crucial by taking up both heat and carbon, which lead to nearly compensating effects in how surface warming depends on carbon emissions,” according to Williams.

“These findings potentially address the most important finding from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report last year, which is how global warming increases with how much carbon we emit,” Williams said, adding, “In terms of wider policy implications, our theory reiterates a simple message: the more cumulative carbon emissions are allowed to increase, the more global surface warming will also increase.”

“This policy implication reinforces the need to develop carbon capture techniques to limit the warming for the next generations,” Williams said,.

The research is published in Nature Geoscience.

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By Gulbin Sultana

Presidential election will be held in Sri Lanka on January 8, 2015, two years before the current term is slated to end. President Mahinda Rajapaksa announced his intention to hold a Presidential Election seeking another term by signing a proclamation on November 20, 2014. It was well known that Rajapaksa was contemplating such a move and reactions to it were mostly negative. Now that it is official, opposition parties are responding to it in the most predictable manner.

Objections to Snap-poll

Various opposition parties, particularly Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), have objected to Rajapaksa seeking a third term as President. According to the 1978 constitution, the President can be elected for one six year term at a time and one candidate can hold office only for two terms. This restriction (of two terms) was removed by the 18th amendment in 2010. The JVP has, nevertheless, raised objection on the ground that Mahinda Rajapaksa was elected to office in 2010 before the constitutional amendment came into effect. To the JVP’s distress, the legality of Rajapaksa seeking a third term has, however, been endorsed by the Supreme Court.

Although there is no legal objection for the conduct of a snap election, many of the alliance partners of the ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) are also not in favour of holding the election in January 2015. They argue that the President has another two years to go and the Parliament has around 18 months to complete its tenure. Hence, the election, according to them, should be held after bringing about constitutional amendments particularly on reducing the powers of the Executive Presidency.

Ironically, many of these partners had endorsed the amendment (18A) granting dictatorial powers to the office of the President and removing the two-term restriction. The realisation that presidential powers need to be clipped has dawned on them only now after they saw Rajapaksa going back on his promises in this regard. And they are in no mood to give Rajapaksa the benefit of the doubt when he is assuring them now that he would abolish the additional powers vested in the executive presidency soon after the election.

Rajapaksa undaunted, but nervous

Rajapaksa is undaunted by such challenges. He is adamant that the election must be held in January 2015. Among the alliance partners, the National Freedom Front (NFF) led by Minister Wimal Weerawansa has extended its support to the President after Rajapaksa approved all its demands. The Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) has also provided unconditional support to Rajapaksa.

Parties like the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and left parties have not made their stance clear on the issue. The Muslim alliance partners were unhappy about the Government’s handling of the issues relating to their community. SLMC supporters are pressing their leadership not to support Rajapaksa. SLMC leaders are reportedly seeking the Government’s firm assurance on its demands such as the creation of a separate administrative system along the coastal belt of the Ampara district for the Muslims in return for their support.

The right-wing Jathiya Hela Urumaya (JHU) had put forward some 35 proposals demanding that the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) implement these to obtain its backing. The JHU, in its demands, has urged the government to prune some powers of the Executive Presidency, to uphold the independence of the Judiciary and to strengthen anti-corruption laws. It may be noted that the JHU quit the Government since it did not receive a satisfactory response from Rajapaksa on its demands.

Against this backdrop, the obvious question that comes to mind is: “Why is Rajapaksa in such a desperate hurry to hold the elections so soon? Rajapaksa was elected as President in 2005 and won a second six-year term in a snap presidential election in 2010, riding the wave of popularity in the wake of the “victory” against the Tamil separatists in 2009. In 2005 he secured a little over 50 percent of the votes polled, but in 2010 he polled 57 percent of the votes. In the subsequent Parliamentary and provincial council elections also the SLFP-led UPFA performed well.

Rajapaksa’s popularity on decline

During the last few years, however, Rajapaksa’s popularity has been sinking. This was quite clear in the recent Uva provincial council election. The UPFA won the council election by a narrow margin. There is a growing sense of frustration with the Rajapaksa Government due to rising inflation, the increasing cost of living, communal riots, and the international isolation that Sri Lanka is facing because of the recent UNHRC resolution. Critics in Sri Lanka are attributing this to the inept handling of both internal and external affairs by the Rajapaksa Government.

Even though the economy seems to be doing well on paper, in reality it is in poor shape. The massive infrastructure projects undertaken by the government have led to a huge debt burden. On the external front, Rajapaksa’s supporters hold that international investigation would further strengthen Rajapaksa’s position; however, others are arguing that Rajapaksa could have avoided the resolution had he seriously worked on the issue of political reconciliation during the last four years.

The UNHRC is expected to submit its report in March 2015. Since there is a real possibility of this report being negative, the Rajapaksa brothers fear its impact on an election held in 2016. According to one view, it is precisely to avert such a sequence of events that Rajapaksa has called for snap elections in January 2015.

At another level, the Rajapaksa brothers must have felt threatened by the popular demand for the abolition of the Executive Presidency and a third term for any aspirant. They must have thought that given the popularity of such demands, the Rajapaksa Government would be under compulsion to bring about the 19th amendment as demanded by various parties including some alliance partners. All this would mean that Rajapaksa would lose the opportunity of becoming President for a third term.

Opposition ascendant

Looking at the turn of the events, the opposition United National Party (UNP) had introduced a no-confidence motion in May 2014 on the basis that the government had failed to curb the drug menace in Sri Lanka. The motion was defeated in Parliament by a majority of 94 votes. But now that many of the SLFP’s alliance partners are expressing dissatisfaction with the government, there is a possibility of the opposition succeeding in its efforts to further corner the government with similar moves in future. The JHU has already come out of the alliance. Other partners are becoming increasingly critical of the government’s policies.

As an indication of the declining popularity of the government, some of the ruling UPFA leaders like Gampaha District parliamentarian Wasantha Senanayake have defected to the main opposition UNP. A former cabinet minister for health and the general secretary of the SLFP, Sirisena Maithripala has resigned from the party and emerged as the Common opposition candidate even though he has not yet joined the UNP.

Sirisena as Common Opposition Candidate

The opposition parties had been mulling over nominating a common candidate for quite some time now. Initially it was speculated that the Venerable Maduluwawe Sobitha Thero would be the common candidate given that he was a leading force behind the move to put forward a common opposition candidate. Former President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s name was also suggested as a common candidate. Ranil Wickremesinghe, leader of the UNP was in favour of a candidate from his own party. However, the UNP is facing an internal leadership crisis. Moreover, some parties like the JHU categorically denied support to Ranil Wickremesinghe as a common candidate. Two other important leaders from UNP— Karu Jayasurya and Sajith Premadasa— could also not inspire confidence in other opposition parties as the common presidential candidate.

Therefore, finally, former General Secretary of the SLFP Sirisena Maithripala has been chosen as the common candidate. He is reportedly backed by former President Chandrika Kumaratunga and some other UPFA members like Rajiva Wijeysinghe, Rajitha Senaratne, Duminda Dissanayake, M.K.D.S Gunawardena and Vasantha Samarasinghe. The SLFP has termed it as a foreign conspiracy to defeat Rajapaksa. Reportedly, UNP leaders Mangala Samaraweera, Karu Jayasuriya and Ravi Karunanayake met with some influential foreign diplomats accredited to Colombo to discuss matters related to the strategy to win the presidential election.

Winning may not be easy this time

According to Sri Lankan analysts, it is difficult but not impossible to defeat Mahinda Rajapaksa. In their view, the withdrawal of JHU from the alliance and the defection of individual members from the UPFA/SLFP indicate that there is an anti-Rajapaksa wave beginning to emerge. Therefore, there is a sense of optimism in the tentative political alliance taking shape in Sri Lanka in the form of the Common Opposition.

According to media analysis, for a clean victory from only the South (excluding North and East) a candidate needs 58.3 per cent or 5.25 million Sinhala votes. In the 2010 presidential election, Rajapaksa got 6.02 million (57.9 per cent) votes from the South and the East (mostly Muslims).1. However, in the coming election, Rajapaksa may not be able to repeat such a performance. The JVP, Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the SLMC are yet to announce their decisions about supporting Rajapaksa. Media reports also suggest that some parties who had extended their support to Rajapaksa earlier were reconsidering their decision after Sirisena announced his candidature. Moreover, due to regular attacks on Muslims, and the defection of the JHU, Rajapaksa is unlikely to reap a good electoral harvest in the East and South. Thus, if the Sinhala opposition parties, the Tamil TNA, and the Muslim parties support the common candidate, there is a possibility that they may be able to defeat Mahinda Rajapaksa. But the big question is: will these political forces come together?

While the issue of abolition of the executive presidency has brought some of the opposition parties together, there are other important issues that divide them. For example, the TNA is pushing for political reconciliation and the JHU is advocating a repeal of the 13th amendment. It will be interesting to see how political parties deal with their differences while taking a decision to support a common candidate. However, one thing is very clear. For Rajapaksa, winning this election will not be that easy.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India

1. Perera, Kusal, “How Will The SL Electorate Behave?”, Colombo Gazatte, November 21, 2014 at https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/how-will-the-sl-electorate-behave/.

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/RajapaksaSeekingaThirdTermasPresident_gsultana_011214.html

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Mozambique and India will officially cooperate in the hydrocarbons, natural gas and oil sector after a deal was signed in New Delhi by Indian Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan and Mozambican Foreign Minister Oldemiro Baloi, reports MISNA.

The deal marks a boost in cooperation between the nation in the fields of research, training and transfer of technology.

Explaining the reasons of the accord, Pradhan explained that “Mozambique is in a strategic position in respect to India and is in ideal conditions to provide natural gas at market price,” reported MISNA.

Indian companies are already operating in the sector: the state controlled ONGC Videsh, Oil India and Bharat Petroleum own 30% of block 1 of the Rovuma basin, off Mozambique’s northern coasts, MISNA noted.

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By Selcuk Colakoglu

In the beginning of the Cold War the Korean Peninsula was divided into two parts to be administered by respective socialist and capitalist regimes, just as was the case in Germany and Vietnam.

These divisions had no legitimate basis and were instead entirely the products of Cold War ideological polarization. There were no ethnic, religious or cultural differences that would prompt such a division between North and South Korea; the same was also true for North and South Vietnam and East and West Germany. In all of these cases, even the borders that were drawn were artificial. The Korean Peninsula and the country of Vietnam were both divided into two parts along the 38th and 17th parallels respectively. The division of Germany was arranged by establishing a border between those areas that the Soviet and American armies were occupying at the conclusion of World War II. It is unacceptable on both political and humanitarian grounds that a nation be divided as a result of supranational ideological warfare, much less that such an arrangement be promoted if not actively implemented by external states.

Indeed, after an extensive war, Vietnam was united as socialist North Vietnam annexed capitalist South Vietnam in 1974. And Germany, in concert with the end of the Cold War, saw peaceful reunification in 1990 after capitalist West Germany absorbed socialist East Germany. However, Korea, which was divided into two parts just like Vietnam and Germany, still remains separated. With the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the subsequent reunification of Germany a year later, and the complete end of the Cold War in 1991, Korea’s expectations for reunification in the near future rose. However, in the quarter-century that has come and gone since then, the two separate Koreas have not even been able to normalize the relations between them. While the ceasefire that was signed between North and South Korea in 1953 is still in force, a final peace agreement has not come to fruition.

Nonetheless, since 1988 Seoul has made numerous attempts at rapprochement with North Korea, including the development of strategies that seek to promote collaboration and unification. However, so far Seoul’s every attempt has been debilitated by Pyongyang. The main reason for North Korea’s unwillingness to unify, or even pursue political rapprochement, with South Korea is seen its aversion to being annexed. This apprehension stems from the fact that South Korea is very well-integrated in the global community and hosts an advanced and competitive economy, a well-trained labor force, and a mature democracy, whereas North Korea, on the other hand, houses an economic structure that has long been on the verge of bankruptcy, functions within a closed political system under an authoritarian regime, and has been isolated from the global community in a variety of fields.

President Park’s Dresden Declaration and the new unification model

Despite these bleak circumstances, South Korea has launched a new initiative to show that it is not giving up on the unification of Korea. In this regard, South Korean President Park Geun-hye unveiled his own unification model in a speech held in the former East German city of Dresden in March 2014. This model, now known as the Dresden Declaration, prioritizes three main fields of collaboration that will lay the groundwork for reunification.

The first feature of the model is “humanity” and it prioritizes family reunification. For more than 70 years it was impossible to bring the families that were separated by the war and subsequent territorial division back together; it has only been since 2000 that a limited number of family members living on opposite sides of the border were able to meet, albeit for only a few days. Now, offering the opportunity to this dwindling number of separated family members to meet and communicate whenever they see fit should be considered as a humanitarian responsibility on the part of both Korean governments. In order to reduce infant mortality rates in North Korea, President Park is also offering to provide health care support and expand humanitarian assistance to the country.

The second element of the model is “co-prosperity”, which can be achieved through the development of inter-Korean infrastructure projects and improvements to be made to the livelihoods of all people in Korea. In this regard, it is proposed that cooperation increase between the North and South with respect to multi-farming agricultural and livestock complexes and in the field of forestry management. To increase the capacity of agricultural production in North Korea, it was also recommended that technical and financial support be provided by international organizations such as the UN and the World Bank. Also, the development of critical infrastructure, such as transportation and telecommunication infrastructure, in both North Korea and in-between the two Koreas should be put on the agenda. In this context, it is important to breathe new life into the implementation of the inter-Korean/Russian Raj-Khasan joint railway project and the inter-Korean/Chinese Sinuiju transportation infrastructure projects.

The third element of the vision emphasizes “integration” of the people of North and South Korea. The prominent point here is to redress the overwhelming absence of people-to-people contact among those living on opposite sides of the border. In this context, the bilateral facilitation of joint training programs and academic exchanges that focus on the fields of education, finance, tax administration, and statistics should be pursued. It has been proposed that an “inter-Korean exchange and cooperation office” would be established to coordinate these exchanges and collaborative efforts.

North Korea’s response

The statement of North Korea’s National Security Council in April 2014 rejected President Park’s unification proposal, pointing out that these issues are of secondary importance in inter-Korean affairs. Pyongyang’s principal response to the model declared that such a vision was indicative of South Korea’s desire to annex North Korea rather than to unify with it. Again, it deserves mention that one of the reasons for such a reaction by Pyongyang stems from the fact that President Park revealed this proposal in an East German city that was annexed by West Germany. Meanwhile, that North Korea didn’t completely close the door to dialogue with South Korea can be interpreted as a positive sign for the future. In any event, no one expects a sudden unification on the Korean Peninsula, whether today or tomorrow.

Overall, with her concrete proposals, President Park has moved Korean unification onto the global agenda once again, showing the international community that Seoul will not accept division as the definitive status on the Korean Peninsula and that the desire for and commitment to unification will continue. This case has indicated that Seoul is attempting to be an active and decisive player in every aspect of Korean unification, from family reunification, to the spreading of wealth throughout the entirety of the Korean Peninsula.

Note: This article was first published in Hurriyet Daily News on November 29, 2014

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The European Union has made progress in liberalizing energy markets, and its global leadership on climate change is to be commended, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Monday as it released its review of EU energy policies.

However, the new IEA report said there remains much room for improvement. It noted that much of the integration of Europe’s energy market has been confined to northern and western parts of Europe, and that until important interconnections are built across the entire bloc, the EU will not have a truly integrated, single energy network – the basis for an “Energy Union”.

Moreover, despite reforms at the wholesale level, markets are increasingly distorted by the persistence of regulated prices and rising green surcharges and levies.

In the report, Energy Policies of IEA Countries: European Union – 2014, the IEA praised the EU for reducing its carbon intensity and taking the lead in vehicle fuel economy standards. Thanks to the implementation of 20-20-20 targets, lower energy intensity and an unprecedented boom in renewable energies can be witnessed, the IEA said.

EU leaders agreed in October 2014 to ambitious climate and energy targets for 2030, the IEA noted, adding that now, the legal framework must be put in place, with market rules for a low-carbon system. That said, the report acknowledged that the transition to such a low-carbon system remains challenging, as electricity and transport sectors rely heavily on fossil fuels. This requires the swift reform of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and support to investment in low-carbon technologies, according to the IEA.

“As member states adopt different energy policy choices and decarbonization pathways towards 2030, a strong ‘Energy Union’ is needed to achieve the EU 2030 goals. But let’s be clear: such a union should not represent a buyer’s cartel. Rather, it should feature an integrated energy market and effective climate and energy policies,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven.

“To make the most of the diversity of its energy sources, and to move towards an Energy Union, the EU must better pool its resources within the internal energy market to enhance both energy security and the competitiveness of its industry,” she added.

According to the IEA, the EU electricity systems and markets need to accommodate growing shares of variable renewable energy. At the same time, the EU faces the retirement of half its nuclear generating capacity in the next ten years. Decisions need to be made about uprates, upgrades and lifetime extensions, the IEA report noted, adding that energy security must be placed at the centre of the Energy Union.

To reduce dependency on one single supplier, the EU must further diversify gas and oil supplies, and cannot afford to reduce its energy options: nuclear, coal and unconventional gas and oil will need to be part of the mix, the IEA said.

Among its key recommended policy actions, the IEA report called for a new commitment to the internal energy market across the EU, with an interconnected energy network and competitive retail markets.

Specifically, with respect to electricity, the report calls for the market integration of variable renewable generation with strong co-ordination of electricity system operation; generation adequacy; and demand-side response, balancing and intra-day markets across interconnected systems.

In the area of gas, access to and efficient use of gas storage and liquefied natural gas terminals and unconventional gas sources is needed, according to the report.

The IEA report also calls for the timely adoption of market-based and governance rules for an integrated 2030 Climate and Energy Framework with priority to energy efficiency, a strong EU ETS, and support to all low-carbon technologies, by integrating technology, RD&D and innovation foresight.

With respect to enhanced EU-wide co-operation on uprates, safety upgrades, and extensions of the lifetimes of existing nuclear power plants are need to ensure highest safety standards and regulatory stability needed for the investment decisions in those countries that opt for nuclear energy.

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NASA said Monday it has approved the completion of Boeing’s first milestone in the company’s path toward launching crews to the International Space Station from the United States under a groundbreaking Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contract.

According to NASA, the Certification Baseline Review is the first of many more milestones, including flight tests from Florida’s Space Coast that will establish the basis for certifying Boeing’s human space transportation system to carry NASA astronauts to the space station. The review established a baseline design of the Crew Space Transportation (CST)-100 spacecraft, United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket, and associated ground and mission operations systems.

“The work done now is crucial to each of the future steps in the path to certification, including a flight test to the International Space Station,” said Kathy Lueders, manager of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program. “This first milestone establishes an expected operating rhythm for NASA and Boeing to meet our certification goal.”

On Sept. 16, the agency unveiled its selection of Boeing and SpaceX to transport U.S. crews to and from the space station using their CST-100 and Crew Dragon spacecraft, respectively. These contracts will provide US missions to the station, ending the nation’s sole reliance on Russia and allowing the station’s current crew of six to grow, enabling more research aboard the unique microgravity laboratory.

The CCtCap contracts are designed for the companies to complete NASA certification of their human space transportation systems, including a crewed flight test with at least one NASA astronaut aboard to verify the fully integrated rocket and spacecraft system can launch from the US, maneuver in orbit, and dock to the space station, as well as validate all its systems perform as expected. Once the test program has been completed successfully and the systems achieve NASA certification, the contractors will conduct at least two, and as many as six, crewed missions to the space station. The spacecraft also will serve as a lifeboat for astronauts aboard the station.

During the review, Boeing provided NASA with a roadmap toward certification, including its baseline design, concept of operations and management and insight plans. The Boeing team also detailed how the CST-100 would connect with the station and how it plans to train NASA astronauts to fly the CST-100 in orbit.

“It’s important for us to set a robust plan for achieving certification upfront,” said Boeing Commercial Crew Program Manager John Mulholland. “It’s crucial for us to achieve our 2017 goal, and the plan we’ve put in place will get us there.”

By expanding the crew size and enabling private companies to handle launches to low-Earth orbit — a region NASA has been visiting since 1962 — the nation’s space agency can focus on getting the most research and experience out of America’s investment in the International Space Station. NASA also can expand its focus to develop the Space Launch System and Orion capsule for missions in the proving ground of deep space beyond the moon to advance the skills and techniques that will enable humans to explore Mars.

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As the Earth warmed coming out of the last ice age, the rate of plankton production off the Pacific Northwest coast decreased, a new study has found, though the amount of organic material making its way to the deep ocean actually increased.

This suggests that during future climate warming, the ocean may be more efficient than previously thought at absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – at least in some regions – but raises new concerns about impacts on marine life.

Results of the study are being published online today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The ocean absorbs carbon dioxide like a sponge; scientists say that about one-third of all CO2 emitted historically by burning fossil fuels is now in the ocean. “This is a good news/bad news situation,” said Alan Mix, an Oregon State University oceanographer and co-author on the study. “It helps to slow the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere, but it makes the ocean more acidic.”

A major uncertainty has been how life in the ocean will respond to increasing CO2 and global warming. Growth of phytoplankton (microscopic plants such as diatoms) near the sea surface converts carbon dioxide into organic matter. When the plankton die, their organic remains either decompose in the surface ocean, or sink into the abyss.

This sinking of plankton effectively pumps CO2 out of the atmosphere. The so-called “biological pump” stores carbon in the deep sea, which is one way that biology influences global climate.

“It has been assumed that the amount of organic material that sinks to the sea floor would parallel that produced through photosynthesis near the sea surface,” said Mix, who is in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. “Surprisingly, our study found that even as plant growth decreased, past warming actually enhanced the biological export of carbon to the deep sea, at least in the northeast Pacific.”

Lead author Cristina Lopes, a visiting scientist at Oregon State who is based at the Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA, Portuguese Sea and Atmosphere Institute) in Portugal, and colleague Michal Kucera at the Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at Germany’s University of Bremen, calculated the productivity of marine plankton during the last major global warming event leading to the end of the last ice age. They did so by examining fossil diatoms buried in sediment off the coast of Oregon.

A breakthrough came from applying neural network methods now used by financial and insurance industries. “Inspired by brain research, we adapted these machine learning methods to analyze the fossil record for a new view of how the ocean works,” Kucera said.

The researchers found that during the ice age, the carbon trapped in plankton off Oregon was mostly recycled rather than exported to the deep ocean. As the ice age waned and the ocean warmed, plant growth decreased while carbon export increased.

“This counterintuitive effect was driven by a shift in ecosystems to one dominated by large diatoms,” Lopes said. “Those diatoms bloomed, then sank fast when they died.”

The researchers say their findings don’t necessarily mean that the ocean can continue to absorb increasing amounts of CO2 indefinitely, but that computer models of the ocean’s carbon cycle will need to take into account that plant productivity and carbon export are not always linked.

Evidence that export of carbon to the deep sea increases in some regions during long-term warming may help to slow down global climate change, but it may make some other impacts worse, the researchers point out. For example, as the extra sinking organic matter decomposes, it consumes oxygen dissolved in seawater – and loss of oxygen in the ocean is a growing concern.

Low-oxygen “dead zones” have appeared off the coast of Oregon several times in recent years.

“If these connections between warming and enhanced carbon export that we’ve found in past climate changes are triggered in the future, we can expect those marine dead zones to show up more frequently,” Mix said.

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