By Col. R. Hariharan*

After President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his surprise challenger Maithripala Sirisena, General Secretary of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), who quit his office as Minister, filed their nominations for the Presidential election on January 8, 2015 the contest has become exciting.

Maithripala’s move came as a boon to the opposition parties who were struggling to find a common strategy to stop the Rajapaksa juggernaut rolling for a third term in office. The opposition United National Party (UNP) and a few other SLFP leaders and Bandaranaike family loyalists led by former President Mrs Chandrika Kumaratunga quickly got together to name Sirisena (full name: Palle Watte Gamaralalage Maithreepala Yapa Sirisena) as the common opposition candidate of the National Democratic Front.

Undoubtedly, Sirisena’s “betrayal” has queered Rajapaksa’s calculated strategy to get elected for a third term as President. Ever since he got reelected as President in 2009 he made his move with an eye on a third term. First he gained two thirds majority the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition in Parliament in the 2010 election. He managed to get the constitution amended to lift the restriction on holding the office of the president for more than two terms. He also managed to enlarge the Executive President’s powers to appoint the head of judiciary and the election commissioner by getting the constitution amended.

While this was as planned, his popularity rapidly declined after the Rajapaksa family firmly ensconced itself in positions of power to control finances and dispense favours. The Party took a backseat, leading to widespread corruption, lawlessness and cronyism. Opposition and critical media were hounded and xenophobia nurtured. To cut down his losses the President advanced the presidential election by two years.

All of sudden Rajapaksa finds Sirisena, the long-term party loyalist turned “renegade,” is threatening to derail the Rajapaksa gravy train. He has gathered not only the support within the Party but also managed to get the support of the UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Democratic Party (DP) Leader Sarath Fonseka, subsuming their personal ambitions.

With “defeat Rajapaksa” becoming the political flavour of the day, the right wing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) parted company with the UPFA, its long term ally and signed a MoU with Sirisena to affirm its solidarity.

Sirisena’s allies are no models of clean political conduct. Sirisena’s agenda evolved with them for his campaign include the abolition of executive presidency “within 100 days of his election as President and Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister”, reintroduction of the 17th amendment and abolition of the 18th amendment to the Constitution that has enabled Rajapaksa to seek more than two terms, cleaning up government corruption and full implementation of LLRC recommendations as suggested by the UN Human Rights Commission.

Caught off guard, the President in his initial reaction held a veiled threat to the defectors. He thundered “I have their files and documents which will be very detrimental to their well being. I will not use them against those who had left betraying the party, but I warn them not to throw stones from inside glass houses.” Though later he toned down his remark, it seemed to have worked with many potential defectors of the SLFP lying low for the time being.

The President, after deliberating with his cabinet and advisors, seems to have evolved his tactics to handle Sirisena. Talking to media editors at a breakfast meeting Rajapaksa identified former President Chandrika Kumaratunga as “the main contender in the race” and she was “using Maithripala Sirisena.” This was to trivialize Sirisena’s challenge by attributing it to Mrs Kumaratunga’s machinations and not to the shortcomings of his rule.

More devious was Rajapaksa’s tongue in cheek remark at the editor’s meeting that Ranil Wickremesinghe was “the best candidate out of the three because only he has a party machinery.” This was probably made to sow doubts among some of the UNP leaders locked in internal squabble to dissipate the UNP support to Sirisena.

‘Foreign conspiracy’ to destabilise Sri Lanka is a perennial ploy in Rajapaksa’s political strategy to whip up nationalist sentiments. This time also the UNP has become the target of such allegations by UPFA leaders. Resettlement Minister Gunaratne Weerakoon alleged the outgoing US ambassador Michaele Cison offered him a green card and a house in the US to induce him to defect from the government.

Another well worn Sri Lanka political strategy is to induce defection of leaders on the eve of elections. Both sides have adopted it. Rajapaksa has the money and muscle power and the instrument of government to do a better job of it. In spite of this, not only Sirisena but a few other ministers have quit their office to join the opposition ranks. One of them, Minister Navin Dissanayake, son of the late President Premadasa, who crossed over to the opposition said he was offered Rs 10 million to stay in the SLFP.

But Rajapsa is a past-master in the defection game. So it was not surprising to see some prominent political personalities – UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake cutting his two decades of association with UNP and the JHU Deputy General Secretary Udaya Gammanpila – to cross over to Rajapaksa’s ranks.

Sirisena would need the whole hearted support of traditional UNP voters if he has to put up a strong fight which is not going to be an easy exercise if we go by the experience of Sarath Fonseka, the common opposition candidate in the last presidential election. The UNP leaders would need to work hard to ensure its loyal votes go in favour of Sirisena.

In addition, Sirisena needs to charm the fence-sitting opposition parties like the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the reluctant Tamil National Alliance (TNA).

Though the JVP is keen on defeating Rajapaksa and abolishing executive presidency abolished, it has not shown keenness in supporting Sirisena. So Sirisena may not be to get most of the JVP votes.

The TNA have a track record of getting most of the Tamil votes. Their support is important in any close contest. TNA still retains the strength to persuade Tamils to vote for Sirisena. But the TNA is still undecided on its stand. In a Daily Mirror report TNA leader Suresh Premachandran has articulated the dilemma saying:“There is no solution offered to the problems of the Tamil people. There is no plan to resettle displaced Tamils. It seems that the common candidate is endorsing the views of Sinhala extremist forces backing him. Let alone a political solution, there is no approach even to address day to day problems.” But Sirisena probably offers a better option as has promised to clip the wings of executive president to make him more accountable and the TNA may veer round to support him.

Muslim parties as usual are split in their support to Rajapaksa. The decision of Minister Bathiuddin’s Muslim Congress to support Rajapaksa was not unexpected. The SLMC, which commands more Muslim votes, had been peeved with Rajapaksa over his inaction to curb the Bodhu Bala Sena (BBS)’s violent hate-Muslim campaign that resulted in loss of lives and property. The SLMC parted with the UPFA on the same issue. This would make the SLMC uncomfortable to go with Sirisena particularly after he signed the MoU with JHU as it had been providing political support to the BBS’s anti-Muslim campaign.

With such a line up of support, can Sirisena defeat President Rajapaksa? If we go by the upbeat mood in the opposition ranks it would seem so. Sirisena, with his comparatively clean image (unlike Rajapaksas) and established party credentials, does have chance to win if he can swing at least 15 percent of SLFP loyalist votes in his favour. And that might not be enough unless Sirisena can make a dent in the strong South Sinhala support for Rajapaksa.

Despite all the complaints of misrule and corruption against Rajapaksa, can Sirisena a comparatively less known figure, compete with Rajapaksa hailed as a national hero for defeating the LTTE and eliminating Prabhakaran? That is the moot question.

The bottom line is the opposition cannot afford to underestimate Rajapaksa’s strengths.

Moreover, the politically savvier Rajapaksa has been preparing for the election well in advance. In the Budget for 2015 a hefty hike for all government servants and freebies including heavily subsidised offer of motorcycles to government field staff have been announced. Similarly interest rates for senior citizens’ deposits have been hiked to 12 percent.

The government’s allocation of Rs 450 million to each of the select parliamentarians (including to those who cross over from the opposition) as development fund to fund over 150 special development projects is yet another instance of how government funds are ‘used’ to garner support for Rajapaksa.

Rajapaksa dirty tricks department is already in action. There are reports of misuse of government machinery to support the President. A number of complaints against the ruling coalition for attacking opposition candidates and leaders have been reported.

For instance Western Provincial Council SLFP member Hirunika Premachandra fled the country with her mother after she received threats to her life after she decided to back Sirisena. Of course, she is back now to campaign for him.

One redeeming feature is India, the favourite whipping boy always accused of meddling in Sri Lankan elections, seems to have taken a backseat. Probably China will replace it soon as scams involving the Chinese are surfacing now. But the Chinese are clever, they never dirty their hands in politics; they prefer to use money.

There is yet another important factor in Sri Lanka politics – astrology. President can probably relax as his astrologer seems to have predicted that he would be re-elected for the third time and a fourth time as well! We don’t know what Sirisena’s birth chart says; I suppose January 8 will decide his future regardless of his astral predictions.

*(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info)

The post Sri Lanka: Don’t Underestimate Rajapaksa – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Kenyan government’s NGO coordination board has banned 15 Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) for alleged fund-raising for terrorism, reports MISN

“Some NGOs have been and continue to be used for criminal activities, including as conduits of terrorism financing in Kenya”, the board said, according to MISNA.

Among the organizations in question are those linked to the Somali Islamist al Shabab insurgent group, which between November and December killed over 60 people in the Mandera area, in northern Kenya.

A total of 510 NGOs were “de-registered” for non-compliance with the financial transparency law, MISNA reported..

The post Kenya: ‘Anti-Terror’ Crackdown Also Targets NGOs appeared first on Eurasia Review.

China invests in land and research in Africa, South America, Central Asia to feed the world’s largest population.

By Loro Horta*

China is the world’s second largest economy, but ironically, food security is emerging as one of the main concerns for China’s communist leaders. During a visit to an Argentinian farm in July President Xi Jinping said: “If China is going to grow, it must solve its grain problem for its 1.3 billion population first.” Measures taken by China to address the problem – going to the world – may not be a panacea.

As China grows wealthier, food consumption and diet have undergone a dramatic transformation.

Between 1985 and 2005 meat consumption in China quadrupled, reaching 59.5 kilos per person a year, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Meat consumption is likely to continue to increase in coming years as more Chinese are expected to join the ranks of the expanding middle class. By 2020, meat consumption is expected to grow by 35 percent from current levels. Chinese are also developing a voracious appetite for certain delicacies taken for granted in the West such as coffee, spices, vegetables like asparagus and exotic fruits like avocados and blueberries.

China is home to 22 percent of the world’s population, but possesses around 7 percent of its arable land – 334.6 million hectares. However, in recent years the county’s arable land has been shrinking as a result of serious environmental damage such as soil erosion, deforestation and pollution of rivers and lakes. In November Chinese officials reported that more than 40 percent of China’s arable land is suffering from degradation.

The combination of rising food demand and reduced arable land makes it difficult for China to feed itself in the not so distant future. In the past decade China has experienced hikes in food prices and shortages of certain products.

China has no choice but to turn to overseas farming. In 2013 China imported 4 percent of the world’s grain and this figure is likely to rise in coming years.

Several Chinese government officials have also talked about the overseas option as a complement to strengthening domestic production. In 2010, Chinese Minister for Agriculture Han Changfu said, “The time is ripe for the country’s agricultural companies to embark on a go outward strategy.”

In recent years Chinese investment in overseas agriculture and land leases has steadily increased. Chinese companies began investing in neighboring Laos and Cambodia farmland in the early 2000s and slowly ventured further afield. Chinese-owned or jointly owned farms are in several African countries including Mozambique and Ethiopia.

In Mozambique, a Hubei-based company has invested $250 million in a rice farm in Gaza province. In November 2013 the country’s state-owned newspaper Notícias cited Raimundo Matule, a director at the ministry of agriculture, reporting that several Chinese conglomerates were expected to invest up to $2.5 billion in the country’s agricultural sector. In Angola Chinese state-owned giant CITIC pledged to invest $5 billion in agriculture in addition to its current lease of 20,000 hectares of land in the former Portuguese colony.

Mozambique and Angola in particular are large countries with immense tracks of fertile land and a small population. Angola has a land area of 1.24 million square kilometers and a population of 16 million.

China’s ongoing tensions with its Southeast Asian neighbors make other parts of the world even more attractive, and Africa could emerge as a major provider of agricultural products to China in coming years.

Chinese business interests have also leased tracts of land in Brazil, Peru Argentina and Mexico. China is also reported to be acquiring land in the sparsely populated Russian Far East just across the border from heavily populated northern China. Chinese companies are reported to have leased 1 million hectares of land through Russia. China’s most ambitious investment in the sector is a land lease deal with Ukraine for 3 million hectares to produce grain and raise pigs. In 2010 Chinese companies were reported to have requested the lease of 1 million hectares from the Kazak government to plant soybeans and wheat. In 2010 China was believed to have leased or bought over 2 million hectares of land abroad. In 2011 China’s largest agriculture group, Heilongjiang Beidahuang Nongken, announced that it was investing $1.5 billion to develop 300,000 hectares of land in Rio Negro province in Argentina .

However, the overseas option China is pursuing carries risks as well as promises of reward. As shown by recent events in the Ukraine, once a relatively stable part of the world, nothing is guaranteed. Land is a sensitive issue that touches upon our most primordial fears. In Kazakhstan there is widespread concern, sometimes bordering on paranoia, that China is grabbing the country’s vast and sparsely populated land by bribing local officials. In Brazil several officials including former Minister of Agriculture Delfin Netto have accused China of carrying out a stealth land grab.

The post Chinese Agriculture Goes Global – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Dr Subhash Kapila*

India under Modi Sarkar sits atop the strategic pyramid with Russia and the United States at the base at opposing ends intending to reinforce their respective Strategic Partnerships with India to their advantage.

Russia has had a long standing and time-proven Strategic Partnership with India until its misconceived recent Defence and Security Agreement with Pakistan. President Putin’s recent visit to New Delhi retrieved the Russia-India Strategic Partnership Strategic Partnership by offering explanations for its Pakistan-policy change and with a slew of military and nuclear-related agreements to bring back the Russia-India Strategic Partnership on the rails. India repaid the strategic trust reposed by Russia in India’s rising power by awarding nearly $ 100-115 billion worth of contracts to Russia.

The US-India Strategic Partnership is only a decade or so old and this time span stood marked by strategic bumps arising from United States propensity to underwrite Pakistan Army’s military adventurism in South Asia and thereby endangering its evolving Strategic Partnership with India. President Obama’s forthcoming State-visit to India as the Chief Guest at the Republic Day 2015 celebrations raised hopes that this visit underwrote United States renewed intentions to add both substance and intent on raising the US-India Strategic Partnership to a higher level.

Regrettably, the official reactions pouring out of Washington in the wake of the strategically and financially high-value agreements signed between President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week were peevish in nature. Worse still were some reactions of a demanding nature that India would be well advised to desist from entering into trade agreements with Russia. Such reactions are likely to sour the optimism which ensued on the announcement of President Obama’s visit to India next month. While India would welcome a revitalised Strategic Partnership with the United States, it no longer can be expected that India would ‘outsource its foreign policy to Washington’ as it was in the last ten years.

In effect the spectacle that is being presented in terms of international relations is that India is being strategically wooed by both Russia and the United States arising from India’s rising global stature with the unfolding of her strategic, military and economic potential. Pointedly, this recognition of India by both Russia and the United States has surfaced in sharp contours with the emergence of India’s dynamic, bold and decisive Prime Minister in the person of Narendra Modi.

India’s potential was always there, even in the last ten years, but global recognition was withheld as in these years, since India stood projected as lacking in dynamism and assertiveness befitting a regional power.

Reverting to the India-Russia-United States Strategic Pyramid, I elected to put India at the apex of the Pyramid arising from the new global consciousness surfacing that India is an emerging and rising power and could swing the global balance-of-power either way with her strategic inclinations.

India also stands placed at the apex of the Pyramid in the context of a military-rising China whose strategic ambitions are increasingly becoming unsettling for Russia and the United States. India comes into their focus because India’s rising power is perceptionaly viewed as benign and as one of a responsible stakeholder in global peace and security.

The next question that awaits an answer is as to which side India would be inclined in terms of its strategic preferences in relation to Russia and the United States.

On the face of it, Russia seems to be the more natural choice in view of the time-tested Strategic Partnership with India and having stood by India in challenging times when the United States strategic tilt to Pakistan continued unabated at the cost of India’s national security interests.

United States and India at the inception of their Strategic Partnership constantly refrained that the United States and India were “Natural Allies”. The rhetoric however was not matched by actions and deeds because of United States Pakistan-Centric strategic formulations in its South Asian policies.

In Indian public opinion it is deeply embedded hat the United States is not a reliable strategic partner of India as at each step the United States tended to backslide towards Pakistan prompted by political expediencies. This Indian public opinion perception persists despite the reality that large numbers of Indians make a beeline for the greener pastures of the United States.

Comparatively, the US-India Strategic Partnership would continue to be plagued by strategic bumps till such time the United States policy establishment gets over its narcisstic strategic obsessions with Pakistan and China, both figuring as India’s military enemies by their demonstrated hostility and adversarial stances against India.

Russia and the United States at the opposing ends of the base of the Pyramid at which India stands placed at the apex are likely to intensify their tussle to win over India. Besides India’s growing strategic clout is the matching reality that the Indian economic growth having regained momentum in the last six months offers lucrative avenues especially to the United States.

India also offers a lucrative defence sales market and this particularly attracts the United States which is intent on replacing Russia as the main source of defence armaments to India. However, with PM Modi’s emphasis on ‘Make in India’ US defence companies long-used to American exceptionalism may lag behind others in the ensuing competition. Modi Sarkar would be well advised not to follow the previous Government’s escape route of FMS sales bypassing global tenders’ requirement.

Prime Minister Modi has already made it clear to Russia in the context of its recent misconceived Pakistan policy that India has many other options and would not countenance any country adopting postures strategically discomfiting India in its neighbourhood.

Prime Minister Modi’s assertion was timely and it is hoped that he would make the same assertion to the United States during President Obama’s forthcoming visit to India. Prime Minister Modi’s pointed assertion to Russia was made in connection to Pakistan.

Prime Minister Modi therefore needs to make a dawning and matching pitch to President Obama also that India is no longer willing to accept any substantial elevation of the US-India Strategic Partnership or offer substantial opening of India’s defence sales market to the United States if the United States persists with its Pakistan-Centric strategic obsession hanging from American coat-tails.

Concluding, one needs to assert that while Russia and the United States would be engaged in bestowing increasing strategic recognition on India’s potential, this strategic reality should also prompt in the Indian policy establishment a strategic consciousness that in the end-game “India Needs to Stand Alone as a Strategically Tall, Bold and Assertive Power on its Own Two Legs” devoid of the crutches of Strategic Partnerships with Russia or the United States.

*(Dr Subhash Kapila is a graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College, Camberley and combines a rich experience of Indian Army, Cabinet Secretariat, and diplomatic assignments in Bhutan, Japan, South Korea and USA. Currently, Consultant International Relations & Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. He can be reached at drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)

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By Sultan al-Barei

Saudi security authorities in November nabbed a group of 77 people linked to the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL), including Saudis and non-Saudis.

Those arrested were involved in the attack on a husseiniya in al-Ahsa in eastern Saudi Arabia on November 3rd that killed eight people, including women and children, and wounded around a dozen others, authorities said.

“A criminal network of 77 people linked to the ISIL terrorist group carried out the al-Dalwa crime in al-Ahsa province,” Ministry of Interior spokesman Maj. Gen. Mansour al-Turki said in late November.

“The security forces were able to capture some of those involved in [the crime] and uncover a criminal network whose leader is linked to the misguided ISIL terrorist group,” he said, adding that the group “had received orders from abroad determining the target, those to be targeted and the time of execution, with the stipulation that it be carried out in al-Ahsa”.

“The security forces carried out simultaneous security operations to capture all members of this terrorist group, including those who pledged allegiance to the group’s leader, participants, supporters, financiers and those who harbour them,” al-Turki said in his statement.

Former Saudi military attaché Maj. Gen. Mansour al-Shihri spoke to the kingdom’s fight against ISIL.

“Saudi Arabia is engaged in an actual confrontation with terrorist groups, led by al-Qaeda and ISIL, and is now at the forefront of countries targeted by ISIL because of its determination to counter misguided views by all means,” he told Al-Shorfa.

“Their old tactics of striking vital government facilities have proven fruitless, so these groups inevitably had to turn to [attempting to] ignite sedition among Saudis. However, our nation’s awareness and high sense of belonging foiled the plot,” he said. “The perpetrators were apprehended in a short period of time and the security effort was accompanied by unparalleled popular action.”

Solidarity staves off sedition

Al-Shihri said everyone stood in solidarity with the villagers and denounced the crime that took place “against them primarily, and Saudi Arabia secondarily”.

The speed with which both the security authorities and the Saudi people dealt with what happened “carries many indications at this sensitive stage in the kingdom’s fight against terrorism”, said Fadel al-Hindi, a supervisor at King Abdulaziz University’s Centre for Social and Humanities Research.

“The terrorist attack on the husseiniya was intended to create a climate of discord among Saudis of the Sunni and Shia communities,” he told Al-Shorfa. “However, the swift and decisive response by Sunni clerics, intellectuals, media professionals and citizens, who rejected this attack, was essential to staving off this sedition.”

This indicates a high level of awareness among Saudi citizens, and that they are not drawn to terrorist ideas, which remain confined to “weak-minded people who sell their conscience to the devil”, he said.

First ISIL cell in Saudi Arabia

In the past, Saudi Arabia has arrested “numerous terrorist cells” belonging to al-Qaeda, but this cell is the first of its kind proven to be linked to ISIL, al-Hindi said.

“After the enforcement of a very tight security cordon on the movement of al-Qaeda elements inside and outside the kingdom, ISIL was bound to turn al-Qaeda’s leftover terrorist elements into potential soldiers for it,” he said.

At the same time, the kingdom is also facing a threat from al-Qaeda on the southern border with Yemen, where there is a high risk of infiltration by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), all of which impose a huge burden on the army and security forces, al-Hindi added.

Majed al-Kiwan, a student in King Saud University’s College of Applied Studies and Community Service in Riyadh, said Saudi youth, particularly university students, are “ideologically immune to terrorist views” and difficult to infiltrate.

This awareness has become stronger thanks to the “purge of the pulpits and [ouster of] a number of religious preachers” who were exploiting these pulpits to pollute Saudi minds with poisoned views under the guise of Islamic advocacy, he told Al-Shorfa.

The post Saudi Arabia Captures ISIL Perpetrators Of Al-Ahsa Shooting appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel strongly condemned Tuesday the Taliban attack on a school in Peshawar, Pakistan, that news reports say left more than 140 people dead, including more than 130 children.

“On behalf of all the men and women of the U.S. Defense Department, I extend our deepest condolences to the people of Pakistan following today’s ruthless attack on the army public school in Peshawar,” the secretary said in a statement. “This heartless slaughter of over 100 innocent students and teachers was an act of pure cowardice. The United States remains committed to supporting Pakistan in its efforts to combat extremism and ensure stability in the region.

“As we stand firm with the Pakistani people and military in their fight against terrorists,” he continued, “we also honor their sacrifices, and join the victims’ families and loved ones in their mourning.”

Officials of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan also issued a statement condemning the attack.

“The barbaric actions of the Taliban illustrate their lack of value for human life and lack of respect for the Islamic faith,” the ISAF statement said. “These attacks only prove their selfish desire for power and willingness to murder to reach their self-serving goals.”

The statement expressed condolences to the families of those killed and wounded, as well as confidence that Pakistani authorities will work tirelessly to seek justice for the families and hold those behind the attack accountable for their atrocities.

The post Hagel Condemns Taliban Attack On Pakistani School appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The African Union (AU) has announced that 187 Ethiopian health workers have left Addis Ababa to join the AU Support to Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

The health workers will join others who have been fighting the disease in the three countries most affected by Ebola namely Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.The Ethiopian contingent comprises field epidemiologists, nurses, medical officers, public health officers, pharmacists and communication officers.

To mark their departure, a special dinner was organized by the Ethiopian government on Monday attended by Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen, African Union Commission Deputy Chairperson Erastus Mwencha, African Union Commissioner of Social Affairs Mustapha Sidiki Kaloko, and Ethiopian Minister of Health Kesete-Birhan Admasu.

The private sector across the continent has worked with the AU to raise the resources needed to support the deployments of health workers.

“The corporations have come together to fight back. The telecoms sector for example, has contributed US$30 million and has made it possible for individuals to contribute $1,” the AU said on Tuesday.

The post African Union Intensifies Fight Against Ebola appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sri Lanka vehemently condemned the terrorist attack yesterday at a school in Peshawar, Pakistan killing over 125 people including 84 children and injuring more than 100 others.

“This dastardly attack reflects the brutality of the perpetrators particularly targeting school children. The brazen and inhumane manner in which this heinous attack was carried out at a seat of learning is particularly shocking,” the External Affairs Ministry said in a statement.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa said he was horrified to learn of the Peshawar terrorist attack and condemned targeting of children.

“Horrified to learn of the Peshawar terrorist attack. Targeting of children is most cowardice. Our thoughts & prayers are with Pakistan. -MR,” the President said in a twitter message.

Gunmen of the Taliban group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan stormed the Army Public School Tuesday morning in the worst attack in Pakistan in years. Most of the victims were students in the first through 10th grades.

Sri Lanka, which has suffered from terrorism for almost three decades, said it shares the pain and anguish of the people of Pakistan at this time of unspeakable grief.

“The Government and people of Sri Lanka extend heartfelt condolences to the families of the bereaved and offer prayers to find strength in coping with this tragedy and wish those injured a speedy recovery. The resilience of the Government and people of Pakistan would undoubtedly strengthen their resolve to annihilate terrorism in that country. ”

Sri Lanka said, “consolidating global peace and security requires the firm commitment of the international community to interdict terrorist activities and intensify cooperation to combat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.”

Reiterating its own strong commitment to this effort Sri Lanka said it stands in solidarity with Pakistan’s fight against terrorism.

The post Sri Lanka Condemns Terror Attack In Pakistan appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sri Lanka on Wednesday commended the decision by Indian authorities to release thirty (30) Sri Lankan fishermen and nineteen (19) boats that are currently in Indian custody.

The External Affairs Ministry issuing a statement said that government of Sri Lanka noted with satisfaction the several media reports on a communication to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu O. Panneerselvam informing of the decision to release thirty Sri Lankan fishermen and nineteen boats currently in the State’s custody on December 22, 2014.

The Ministry said President Mahinda Rajapaksa during his discussions in Kathmandu on the sidelines of the 18th SAARC Summit in November 2014, requested Prime Minister Modi to facilitate the release of the Sri Lankan fishermen in custody in the States of Tamil Nadu and Andra Pradesh.

The decision to release the fishermen demonstrated the goodwill and understanding which existed in addressing issues relating to fishermen of the two countries and a reflection of the existing warm and abiding relationship, the Sri Lanka government said.

The post Sri Lanka Commends India’s Decision To Release Fishermen appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(RFE/RL) — Pakistan has begun three days of national mourning for the 132 children and nine school staff killed in a Taliban attack.

In and around the northwestern city of Peshawar on December 17, mourners gathered around coffins for the funerals of the victims, after people across the country staged overnight vigils.

The 141 people were killed when militants stormed an army-run school in the northwestern city of Peshawar on December 16 in one the country’s deadliest terror attack.

The army said it was carried out by seven gunmen, all wearing bomb vests, who systematically went from room to room, shooting pupils and teachers.

The siege at the school, which teaches boys and girls from both military and civilian backgrounds, lasted eight hours.

A total of 125 people were wounded, before the attackers were killed.

A student in 10th grade, who gave his name as Ebad, said he had seen dozens of schoolmates killed.

“It was 10:30 this morning when we were called to the auditorium to get first-aid training by an army colonel. When we arrived, firing started and they entered the auditorium,” he said of the attackers. “They killed…many students. I saw about 40 to 50 students killed in front of me and they fired on the colonel.”

He said he had seen four or five attackers in plain black clothing.

A Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman who called himself Muhammad Khorasani phoned an RFE/RL Radio Mashaal correspondent and claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it was retaliation for the Pakistani military operation in the northwestern tribal areas, an area known a haven for militant groups.

The Pakistani military says it has killed more than 1,100 Islamist militants in North Waziristan since it launched an offensive there in June using air strikes, artillery, mortar fire, and ground troops.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif traveled to Peshawar and announced a three-day mourning period across the country.

Sharif pledged to avenge a “national tragedy unleashed by savages.” “These were my children. This is my loss. This is the nation’s loss.”

He also called on all parliamentary parties to gather in Peshawar later on December 17 for a conference to discuss the region’s security issues.

The military response to the attack is already reported to have begun.

In a tweet, army spokesman Asim Bajwa announced that 10 air strikes had been carried out against militants in the Khyber region.

The school attack sparked condemnation worldwide.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said it was “an act of horror and rank cowardice.”

U.S. President Barack Obama said terrorists had “once again shown their depravity” and reiterated support for the Pakistani government’s efforts to combat extremism and terrorism.

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini expressed “shock” at the attack, which she said shows “how strong the threat posed by the Taliban still is and how fragile and dangerous” the situation in the region remains.”

President Ashraf Ghani of neighboring Afghanistan said, “The killing of innocent children is contrary to Islam.”

The Afghanistan Taliban also condemned the attack, with spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid saying, “The intentional killing of innocent people, children, and women are against the basics of Islam.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered his country’s “deepest condolences.”

Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai, a native of Pakistan, said she was “heartbroken by what she called a “senseless and cold-blooded act of terror.”

The post Pakistan In Mourning After Taliban School Attack appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Kaveh L. Afrasiabi

Notwithstanding the current oil price crisis precipitated by a confluence of economic, political, and geostrategic factors, Iran’s President Dr. Hassan Rouhani has lashed out at the “conspiracy” and “treachery” of certain countries, adding that “Iran and people of the region will not forget such conspiracies.” Representing a much-needed delayed Iranian response to what is widely believed to be a Saudi-led effort in league with the United States to target Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, i.e., three of the hardest hit economies due to the oil price collapse, President Rouhani’s statement to the Cabinet is hopefully the beginning of a systematic countermeasure in this economic warfare, many of which details are still shrouded in secrecy.

As noted by this author in a previous article (The Oil War II and How Iran Can Strike Back), an important prerequisite for an apt Iranian countermeasure is a correct understanding of the nature of this ‘oil war’. Whereas the mainstream Western media has completely shunned the very suggestion of a US-Saudi concert in instigating a new ‘oil war’ similar to the one that was orchestrated by the Ronald Reagan administration during the second half of 1980s, the Iranian media has the responsibility of subjecting the issue to a thorough and in-depth scrutiny in order to get to the bottom of it.

One way to pursue this matter is to adopt a historical approach that does not lose sight of the previous oil war and the attractiveness of recycling it for the sake of undermining several US-Saudi adversaries. We must bear in mind that ‘oil War I’ transpired without any aspect of the US media at the time acknowledging it, much like the situation today. There is also a great deal of deliberate disinformation planted by the government-friendly media to hide the facts of ‘Oil War II’ such as by deflecting attention from the US’s role and complicity with Saudi Arabia by claiming that this is a solely Saudi initiative targeting US boom in shale oil. But, the proponents of this theory ignore the essential fact that the shale oil industry’s main players, who break even at $50 to $60, are not seriously impacted by the steep decline in oil prices, only the marginal players who rely on $80 or more are hurt, constituting around %5 of the industry. This is small sacrifice for the major geopolitical gain harvested by US and Saudi Arabia with respect to Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, i.e., a global axis of resistance to US hegemony.

Another step in confronting the current oil conspiracy is to put in proper perspective the ‘lessons from the past’ that need to be applied in the search for effective countermeasures. One such lesson is the high cost of inaction, which was the case with the Soviet Union, whose leaders were never able to either correctly diagnose the problem nor to come up with a timely solution to protect their oil-dependent economy. Unfortunately, today’s situation is not much different and there is no reaction on the policy level commensurate with the gravity of the situation. In other words, verbal denunciation of the oil conspiracy is not enough and veiled references that do not confront the culprits head on serve little purpose. What is sadly lacking is a full appreciation of the current context of a full-scale economic warfare unilaterally waged by Saudi Arabia with the tacit consent of United States, which in turn requires immediate and proportionate response. At a time when every $10 drop in the price of oil translates into roughly $30 billion dollar loss for Iran, which has set its budget at $100 a barrel, inaction and limited verbal response is insufficient and requires an economic ‘war room’ to map out a comprehensive plan of action. In this ‘theater of conflict’ there are both defensive and counter-offensive assets that need to be put into action, otherwise Iran will simply be at the losing end of the oil war. Essentially, this means relying on all the available ‘cards’ in order to force a retreat by the other side and regaining the oil price’s equilibrium.

The range of Iran’s countermeasure covers a relatively wide spectrum of possibilities and scenarios that each requires a great deal of attention by the policy-makers. Efficient countermeasures are those that roll back the oil conspiracy and defeat its purpose of weakening Iran’s economy. Like a trench warfare that is fought at several trenches simultaneously, this requires the optimal use of publicity, diplomacy, soft power uses, as well as reliance on hard-power, as an essential component of the counter-strategy in the oil war., including the following:

1. Building a powerful coalition and coordinating action with other countries also targeted and victimized by the sinister oil conspiracy;

2. Identifying the weaknesses of the opponents and their maneuvers in the current oil war;

3. Tailoring concrete responses to the various aspects and dimensions of the oil war;

4. Considering the various ‘tool kits’ that can be applied for countermeasures;

5. Thinking ‘outside the box’ and weighing different options, and ‘thinking the unthinkable;

6. Using the ‘nuclear card’ against the ‘oil card’.

Concerning the latter, we must begin by posing the question of what is the proper countermeasure to an economic warfare waged to reduce Iran’s leverage and negotiation power at the table? Clearly, the US wants to exploit the oil price crunch to extract serious nuclear concessions from Iran from a position of strength, the argument being that with Iran’s back against the wall and a struggling economy, Tehran will be more amenable to accept West’s nuclear demands. Assuming safely that this is indeed the case, then an Iranian countermeasure is not to fall in the other side’s trap and negotiate from weakness, but rather to use the ‘chips’ at its disposal, reshuffle the cards so to speak, and strike back by neutralizing the opponent’s game plan. In concrete terms, this means utilizing the nuclear card vis-a-vis the oil card. One feasible scenario would be for Iran to walk out of the nuclear talks and to curtail its cooperation with the UN atomic agency, as a sign of its displeasure with the ‘bad faith’ Western negotiation reflected in the oil war. Withdrawal from the talks will be a major plus in the oil war, by virtue of causing an international jolt and an oil price hike. Playing ‘brinksmanship’, Iran would go on the offensive by demanding an end to the oil war as a precondition for the return to the table. Most likely, such a bold action by Iran will have the desired results, the Saudis will back down, especially if confronted with the prospect of a new Iran-Russia alliance against it in Persian Gulf, and they will ‘de-securitize’ their present oil policy to some extent, optimistically speaking. This will be tantamount to introducing a ‘circuit breaker’ that goes to the heart of the oil conspiracy by calling the culprits’ s bluff and revealing their hands in action. No doubt, the Western media will sound their usual hypocrisies by denying any false role by Washington, which has stood behind a tall wall of denial playing innocent bystander and even a victim (!), but on a broader level in the international community Iran’s decisive response to the oil conspiracy will be understood as a legitimate self-defense.

The Saudis, who are light years behind Iran in nuclear technology, ought to understand that they are playing with fire and neighbors such as Iran and Iraq will not sit idle while they continue with their oil treachery in cohorts with their American ally. In a word, the Iranian reaction must introduce costs to the adversaries behind the oil war, to bear pressure on them, otherwise they will have no incentive to end it.

*Kaveh Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of several books on Iran’s foreign policy. His writings have appeared on several online and print publications, including UN Chronicle, New York Times, Der Tagesspiegel, Middle East Journal, Harvard International Review, and Brown’s Journal of World Affairs, Guardian, Russia Today, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, Boston Globe, Mediterranean Affairs, Nation, Telos, Der Tageszeit, Hamdard Islamicus, Iranian Journal of International Affairs, Global Dialogue.

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A Danish immigration report on Eritrea that suggests changing refugee policy for Eritrean asylum seekers is deeply flawed. Denmark and other European governments should await the outcome of the United Nations Commission of Inquiry on Eritrea, established in June 2014, before considering any major policy changes concerning Eritrea, said Human Rights Watch.

The Danish report suggests that the Eritrean government may be carrying out reforms that would allow Eritrean asylum seekers fleeing Eritrea’s abusive, indefinite national conscription program to be safely returned to the country. The number of Eritrean asylum seekers and migrants fleeing Eritrea and arriving in Europe has surged in recent years. A very high rate of Eritrean asylum seekers are granted refugee status or some other protected status in Europe, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)’s statistics.

Eritrea

“The Danish report seems more like a political effort to stem migration than an honest assessment of Eritrea’s human rights situation,” said Leslie Lefkow, deputy Africa director. “Instead of speculating on potential Eritrean government reforms, host governments should wait to see whether pledges actually translate into changes on the ground.”

According to UNHCR, the number of Eritreans arriving in Europe tripled in 2014 to nearly 37,000 in the first 10 months.

Eritrea is isolated politically, both regionally and internationally, and is under UN sanctions due to its alleged past support for the militant group Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Some observers suggest that interest by European governments in stemming migration from the Horn of Africa is the main impetus for a variety of changes in policy toward the country, including the assessment of refugee policy.

Eritrea was among the African governments that met with European Union member states in Rome on November 28 as part of the EU-Horn of Africa Migration Route Initiative (also known as the Khartoum Process). Its stated aim is to prevent human trafficking and smuggling of migrants from the Horn to Europe.

The November report from the Danish Immigration Service, largely based on interviews with anonymous diplomatic and other sources in Eritrea, contains contradictory and speculative statements about Eritrea’s human rights situation. The sources also often qualify their statements, noting that there is no independent access to detention centers, that the fate of people returned to Eritrea is unclear, and that government reforms of the national service conscription are rumored, but not confirmed. There is no indication that the authors of the report interviewed victims or witnesses of human rights violations in Eritrea, and a prominent Eritrean academic consulted for the report has publicly criticized it.

Eritrea is one of the most closed countries in Africa, with no independent media, local nongovernmental organizations, or political opposition. The degree of government repression makes independent fact-finding in the country especially hard, including the difficulty of protecting interviewees from government reprisals. Eritrean refugee accounts are a primary source of information for international human rights investigators for this reason.

Eritrea’s dire human rights situation has been widely reported, including by a UN special rapporteur on Eritrea who has published several authoritative and damning reports on conditions. Human Rights Watch has not found any significant improvement in the human rights conditions in the past year.

The most common patterns of abuse in Eritrea include indefinite military conscription; forced labor during conscription; arbitrary arrests, detentions, and disappearances; torture and other degrading treatment in detention; restrictions on freedoms of expression, conscience, and movement; and repression of religious freedom. Eritrea’s policy of national service or military conscription is a significant reason for many young Eritreans to flee the country. By law each Eritrean is compelled to serve 18 months in national service starting at age 18, but in practice conscripts serve indefinitely; many for over a decade.

In June, the UN Human Rights Council condemned Eritrea’s “continued widespread and systematic violations of human rights and fundamental freedoms,” and adopted a resolution establishing a commission of inquiry to investigate abuses in Eritrea.

European governments should not make major policy changes toward Eritrea until they see the commission of inquiry findings, Human Rights Watch said.

“If the Eritrean government is really ready to carry out human rights reforms, it needs to give the UN commission of inquiry access so that it can make an objective assessment of progress,” Lefkow said. “The Eritrean government’s willingness to cooperate with the commission of inquiry will be the first test of whether it is ready to change course.”

The post Denmark’s Eritrea Immigration Report Deeply Flawed, Says HRW appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sen. Ron Wyden, D- Ore., on Tuesday asked the Energy Department to come up with a plan and a strict timeline to address storage tanks leaking radioactive nuclear waste at the Hanford Site in Southeast Washington. Wyden requested the plan in response to a Government Accountability Office report released today that describes the continuing deterioration of Hanford tanks.

The GAO report found that both the older single-shell and newer double-shell tanks at Hanford are continuing to deteriorate. The agency recommended that DOE assess the integrity of all double-shell tanks, update the schedule for removing waste from the tanks and find other ways to create tank space to store the waste from deteriorating tanks, including building new double-shell tanks.

Ron Wyden

In a letter to Department of Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz today, Wyden asked the Energy Department to implement, rather than just accept, the GAO’s recommendations.

“Agreeing to recommendations is one thing, implementing them is another thing entirely,” Wyden said. “The DOE’s ‘watch-and-wait’ strategy for these tanks leaking nuclear waste into the soil is completely unacceptable. I’m asking for a schedule and a plan of action within 90 days to implement the GAO’s recommendations at Hanford.”

Although the DOE has increased monitoring of the tanks at Hanford, the report found that the Department has limited options for stopping the leaks due to lack of safe tank space and its current lack of capacity to treat the waste in the aging tanks.

Wyden requested the report on the safety of the tanks at Hanford after DOE announced additional tank leaks in February 2013. He has repeatedly called on the Department of Energy to improve the safety of the site.

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Spain has arrested seven members of a network that were engaged in attracting, recruiting and sending women to the DAESH, Islamic State, terrorist organization.

The jihadi network dismantled in Spain and Morocco had managed to attract 12 women via the Internet. The arrests were made in Spain (Ceuta, Melilla and Barcelona) and Morocco (Castillejos). All those arrested are accused of actively taking part in an international network in which they each played a specific role in attracting, recruiting and sending young women to the Syrian-Iraqi front as part of the terrorist organization DAESH.

The network dismantled today during a joint operation between the General Commissariat of Intelligence of the Spanish National Police Force and the Directorate-General of Surveillance of the Territory of the Kingdom of Morocco (DGST) had already managed to attract 12 women. The main tools used to recruit these women were the social networks and private forums on WhatsApp.

The operation concluded with the arrest of four women – including a minor – and one man in Spain (1 in Ceuta, 1 in Barcelona and 3 in Melilla), and two men in the Moroccan town of Castillejos. All of them are accused of actively taking part in an international network in which each one of them played a specific role in attracting, recruiting and sending young women to the Syrian-Iraqi front as part of the terrorist organisation DAESH.

A complex network on three levels

The investigations carried out by the General Commissariat of Intelligence of the Spanish National Police Force highlighted the existence of a complex network on three levels intended to be impermeable and based in Spain and Morocco. The roles played by those arrested were as follows:

• Directors: the role played by the two arrested in Morocco. Although acting from the wings, these were the two individuals who led the network and operated through young female facilitators and collaborators (including children, such as the case of the girl arrested in Spain) who performed the work of active recruiters.
• Active recruiters: this was the role played by the four women arrested in Spain, consciously convinced and radicalised to serve the leaders of the terrorist network. The active recruiters roamed the social networks to recruit young women and to then send them to conflict zones to serve the terrorist organisation DAESH.
• Attracted youths: 12 women have so far been identified as attracted by the network now dismantled. All of them were subjected to a process of radicalisation on the social networks before being incorporated into DAESH and sent to the conflict zone. Once trapped by the network, they were irreversibly pushed towards a possible path of no return.

The man arrested in Spain played the role of facilitator within the dismantled network.

Standardized process of radicalization and attraction

Although it was possible to determine that face-to-face contact did take place between the recruiters and the attracted youths, the Internet was undoubtedly the most fundamental tool used in the recruitment process. From the investigations carried out by the Spanish National Police Force, it was possible to determine that the process of radicalization and attraction had been transformed into a standard system and consisted of three clearly distinct stages:

• Initial stage: via such social networks as Facebook, the active recruiters posted messages and propaganda in which they tirelessly insisted on the “alleged crisis of values that exists in western society today” and that can only be offset via the extreme interpretation of Islamic values. The message is clearly targeted at young women. The recruiters were responsible for both spreading the message and filtering the positive responses, conducting a selection process with victims who would then go on to the next stage.
• Selection stage: the chosen victims were redirected to private forums on WhatsApp, whose administrators were the active recruiters. The subtle messages in these forums were based on reprogramming slogans until, at a certain point, they were pointed to the need to “step into action”.
• Final stage: only those victims who took the step were redirected to exclusive forums in which security measures were double so that, when the process culminated and only when the recruitment target had been converted, personal contact was made prior to relocation.

Throughout the entire process, it is worth noting the iron-clad security measures adopted by all those involved. These generated serious obstacles for the police investigations at certain times.

The profile of the young women recruited by the network now dismantled was the same in all cases; they all showed a series of common features that revealed their vulnerability, such as youth (including children), low social-employment expectations and unsupervised users of social networks. Although the young women recruited could have come from anywhere in Spain, the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla were the preferred recruitment locations. In fact, many of the young women attracted by the network and identified during the course of the investigation were from Ceuta and Melilla.

The active recruiters now under arrest offered these young women an entirely false and idealized view of what life would be like for them in the so-called Islamic Caliphate (a Syrian-Iraqi zone controlled by DAESH) as either true “Jihadi guerrilla fighters” or as protagonists of an ideal romance in the arms of a mujahedin. Nothing can be further from the reality of suffering and harassment that awaits them, said officials.

This police operation was overseen and coordinated by the Public Prosecutor’s Office of the Spanish National High Court and involved six home searches in the cities of Barcelona, Ceuta and Melilla, resulting in the arrest and delivery of the detainees and their effects to Central Criminal Investigation Court Number One of the Spanish National High Court.

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Facts on Spanish economy published by the Secretary of State for European Affairs (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Spain).

1. Spain has emerged from recession and dispelled the risk of a bailout that hung over our country in 2012. In the third quarter of 2013, the Spanish economy began to grow again. In the third quarter of 2014, this growth has continued at a rate of 1.6%. The European Commission’s forecast for Spain indicates a growth rate of 1.2% for the current year, and of 1.7% for 2015.
2. In the year 2012, public deficit was reduced by nothing less than two GDP percentage points, that is, in one single year and during a recession —one of the greatest fiscal consolidations seen in the Eurozone. When the year 2013 ended, Spain had a deficit of 6.33%, lower than our target figure. In the first eight months of 2014, public deficit has been cut by another 12.4%.
3. The balance of payments current account deficit, which reached 9.6% of GDP in 2008, had dropped to 0.9% by the first half of 2014, thus providing the world with the clearest indicator that Spain has cleaned up its trade situation.
4. In 2013, exports rose by 5.2%, amounting to 234.24 billion euros, the highest figure in Spain’s history. Spanish exports continued growing from January to September 2014, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, hitting 178.39 billion euros. Spain’s trade deficit was slashed by 48.1% in 2013.
5. Inflation is perfectly under control and, discounting tax increases, it will be negative; in 2013, the CPI closed at 0.3%, the lowest rate since 1961; in September 2014, it was actually negative (-0.2%).
6. The spread of Spanish sovereign debt against the German Bund has experienced a steady downward trend, to approximately 130 basis points, far below the 649 basis points reached in July 2012.
7. The Spanish Treasury has been able to pay lower and lower interest rates, due to the fact that, at the most recent debt auctions, demand has by far exceeded targets. At the latest auctions, yields have fallen to euro-era lows.
8. The biggest Spanish corporations are also being able to finance themselves by issuing bonds at unprecedented interest rates; Telefónica issued debt at the lowest rate in its history, and Repsol’s seven-year bonds were issued at the lowest rate paid by a Spanish company since the launch of the euro.
9. Financing is finally reaching businesses and households. Credit lines for SMEs and household consumer borrowing are already on the rise. These figures started heading upwards in December 2013, their first uptick in two years. Even the mortgage market is showing positive signs. In March 2014, there was a 40% year-on-year increase in new home purchase loans.
10. The indebtedness of companies and households has fallen to levels that have not been seen since before the economic crisis broke out in 2007.
11. The pace of business start-ups has picked up in Spain; 93,363 new companies were registered in Spain in 2013, a 7.1% increase on the previous year. And in just the first five months of this year, 43,608 new companies have been created, 1% more than last year.
12. Spain’s manufacturing sector hit a four-year high in May, after six consecutive months of expansion.
13. The Industrial Production Index (IPI) of September 2014 reflected recent improvements in industrial production (1%), after eleven consecutive months of growth, something that had not occurred since 2007.
14. The Spanish tourism industry has broken new records, making Spain the world’s second tourist destination in revenue terms, after the USA. In 2013, 60.6 million tourists visited Spain, generating 59.08 billion euros in revenue. These positive figures held steady between January and September 2014, when Spain reached another record high, that of 52.4 million international tourists (7.4% higher than the previous year), and tourist spending for the month of September was up 6.8%.
15. After 38 consecutive months of decline in year-on-year terms, retail sales were in black once again, and in November 2013, rose by 2% compared to the same month in 2012. In April 2014, retail sales continued to increase, resulting in a 1.1% rise.
16. Unit labour costs, a measure showing the Spanish economy’s degree of competitiveness, are 20% lower in Spain than in the rest of Europe. The Employers’ Council on Competitiveness has forecast a new decrease in unit labour costs of 1.5% for the 2013-2014 period, “compared with a 2.9% rise” in the average for the other major Euro Zone countries.
17. Jobs are being created again for the first time since 2007. The Labour Force Survey for the third quarter of 2014 confirms an annual increase rate of employed people of 1.6%, the first positive rate in six years. The unemployment rate dropped again, standing at 23.7%, two percentage points lower than that of a year ago.
18. The Consumer Confidence Index for December 2013 (71 points) almost doubled that of December 2012. This upward trend has continued, reaching 84.9 points in May 2014.
19. The confidence of international institutions and markets regarding the Spanish economy is very positive. The headline of a report by Morgan Stanley was self-explanatory: “Viva España”; it predicted that growth would double previous forecasts. JP Morgan has referred to Spain as “Europe’s next big success story”, and recently the IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, said that “Spain is the only country in the Eurozone for which we have revised forecast upwards, so it is a country where reforms, the hard work being done and the sacrifices made by the people are paying off”.
20. The three major rating agencies (Fitch, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s) have upgraded their forecasts for Spain to “stable”.
21. Foreign investors injected nearly 88.76 billion euros into Spain in 2013—compared to the 174.33 billion they took out in 2012. Media headlines have changed from “Pain in Spain” to “Gain in Spain”.
22. During 2013, the Spanish stock market experienced a turning point. The Ibex 35 stock market index rose by 21.4% that year, and in the first ten months of 2014, it grew by 7%.
23. And, as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said, “Spain is witnessing a change in cycle, and we Spaniards have earned the right to be hopeful.”

Source: Elcano Royal Institute

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By P.K. Abdul Ghafour

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Salman, deputy premier and minister of defense, distributed the Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz International Prize for Water for 2014 among its winners during a colorful ceremony in Riyadh on Monday. He congratulated the winners and admired their valuable research works.

Dr. Eric F. Wood and Dr. Justin Sheffield from Princeton University, Dr. Kristine M. Larson of Colorado University won the creativity prize while Dr. Larry Mays of Arizona State University received the surface water prize.

Dr. Jesús Carrera Ramirez of Institute for Environmental Assessment and Water Research in Barcelona, Spain won the ground water prize. The alternative water resources prize went to Dr. Polycarpos Falaras of the National Center for Scientific Research in Athens while the water management and protection prize was received by Dr. William W-G. Yeh of University of California in Los Angeles.

Addressing the ceremony, Prince Khaled bin Sultan, chairman of the prize, cautioned the world against the possibility of terrorists attacking desalination plants and poisoning rivers and water pipelines. He urged researchers to develop effective technologies to avoid such tragedies.

He said the prize was instituted to encourage scientists and researchers to make contributions to international efforts to preserve water resources. “Growing population demands more water not only for drinking purpose but also for protecting public health, keep industries running and food production,” Prince Khaled said, adding that the demand for water would increase by 40 percent by 2030.

The prize has five categories and SR1 million has been allocated for the creativity prize and SR500,000 each for the remaining four prizes.

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By Clint Watts

The U.S. led coalition appears to be slowly rolling back ISIS in Iraq and Syria.  Fighting in Kobane to the north and the slow push of the Iraqi Army west has been mirrored by al Qaeda’s arm in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, taking ground in Syria, namely Idlib, reiterating the futility of a strategy to defeat ISIS consisting of an air campaign with no real plan to end the Syrian civil war and deal with the Asad regime.

The curtain has been pulled back on Jabhat al Nusra’s operations courtesy of the testimonial of the American journalist Theo Padnos who was held by the group for more than 20 months.  His saga illuminates why a strategy focused on countering al Qaeda’s ideology would prove pointless, how loyalty shifts amongst jihadists and anything less than resolution of the Syrian civil war through a defined strategy to deal with the Asad regime will result in a sustained jihadi threat.  The current U.S. strategic direction will result in a jihadist threat, ISIS, Nusra or a new emerging group, will endure far into the future. Here are some of the key points from Padnos story.

Al Qaeda’s Khorasan Inside al Nusra – Many were surprised, and some wrongly doubted (Glenn Greenwald), the existence of old Guard al Qaeda hands in Nusra’s ranks.  Padnos illustrates how Nusra acts as a covering force for al Qaeda activity.  Padnos says:

“I watched as some 200 foot soldiers and 25 or so religious authorities and hangers-on from the Afghan jihad prepared for their journey.”

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) Works With Nusra and by extension al Qaeda – In the early days of the Syrian Civil War, the U.S. chose the FSA as its force of choice in Syria.   Padnos escapes briefly from Nusra fleeing to the FSA, but he explains;

“The F.S.A., it turned out, had given me to the Nusra Front.”

Padnos later runs into FSA troops again.

“One told me that his unit had recently traveled to Jordan to receive training from American forces in fighting groups like the Nusra Front.  “Really?” I said. “The Americans? I hope it was good training.” “Certainly, very,” he replied. The fighters stared at me. I stared at them. After a few moments, I asked, “About this business of fighting Jebhat al Nusra?”

“Oh, that,” one said. “We lied to the Americans about that.”

Any group the U.S. engages within Syria at this point must have some connection to Nusra and al Qaeda.

Fickled Fighters: Al Qaeda today, Maybe Sweden tomorrow<

Counterterrorism pundits for years have pushed the need for the U.S. to counter the ideology of al Qaeda and wrestle young recruits from jihadist arms.  Padnos experience suggests that young men are what we’ve always known, fickled, repeating jihadi narratives in one breath and dreaming of Western girls in the next.

“My guards spent the first 10 minutes trying to get me to accept Islam. Then they gave up. Then they asked if I could introduce them to single women from a Western country.”

Later Padnos eats watermelon with some of the guards and remarks:

“I listened to the fighters musing about their futures. “Hey, Abu Petra,” they asked me, “what is Sweden like?” If they were to present themselves as Syrian dissidents to the authorities, what would happen next? Was I familiar with the procedures in Sweden for seeking political asylum? And what about Berlin, supposing they found their way to Germany? How long would it take for them to learn German?”

This story undermines two common myths regarding jihadis. First, they are not all necessarily that committed to the ideology.  Second, they may be participating in violence now, but that doesn’t mean they will participate in violence forever; some will retire at the end of fighting

ISIS and Nusra’s differences are not about ideology and Allah, but power, greed and politics 

Padnos memoir captures intriguing insight into the split between al Qaeda and ISIS.

“I didn’t know it at the time, but the Nusra Front was losing its war with the Islamic State, the group often referred to as ISIS. From conversations with guards and other prisoners, I gleaned that the two organizations were about equal in strength and that under no circumstances would the Islamic State be allowed to touch the oil fields, the real prize in Syria’s east. But in mid-June, when I was allowed to watch TV for the first time since my capture, I saw a map covered in Islamic State logos.”

Later Padnos explains the real issue between ISIS and Nusra was politics, power and money.

“The real issue between the Nusra Front and the Islamic State was that their commanders, former friends from Iraq, were unable to agree on how to share the revenue from the oil fields in eastern Syria that the Nusra Front had conquered.”

As I’ve discussed in other forums and posts, never doubt the value of money as an initial motivation for being recruited to extremists.  Victories bring money; money brings recruits; recruits bring victories; victories bring recruits – its a cycle of capitalist undertones.  Padnos notes, until the U.S. led campaign, ISIS was winning and capitalizing on the spoils of their victories.

“For the moment, however, the Islamic State seemed to have the edge in the recruitment battle. Many of the Nusra Front soldiers told me that over the previous months, their siblings and cousins had been fighting for the Islamic State. The pay was better. And the Islamic State, a stronger army, had won victories across eastern Syria and Iraq”.

I encourage everyone to read Padnos account of life as a prisoner to jihadists in Syria.  Nothing I’ve read to date demonstrates the complexities of Syria, jihadist groups and the current predicaments of an indecisive U.S. foreign policy.

About the author:
Clint Watts is an FPRI Senior Fellow with the Program on National Security and President of Miburo Solutions, Inc. His research focuses on analyzing transnational threat groups operating in local environments on a global scale. Before starting Miburo Solutions, he served as a U.S. Army infantry officer, a FBI Special Agent on a Joint Terrorism Task Force, and as the Executive Officer of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC). Clint’s publications include: al Qaeda’s (Mis) Adventures in the Horn of Africa, Combating Terrorism Center, 2007 (Co-editor, Co-author); “Can the Anbar Strategy Work in Pakistan?” Small Wars Journal, 2007 ; “Beyond Iraq and Afghanistan: What Foreign Fighter Data Reveals About the Future of Terrorism?” Small Wars Journal, 2008; “Foreign Fighters: How are they being recruited?” Small Wars Journal, 2008; “Countering Terrorism from the Second Foreign Fighter Glut,” Small Wars Journal, 2009; and, “Capturing the Potential of Outlier Ideas in the Intelligence Community,” Studies in Intelligence – CIA, 2011.(Co-author). He is also the editor of the SelectedWisdom.com blog.

Source:
This article was published here by FPRI.

The post As ISIS Takes A Pounding, Nusra Takes Ground In Syria’s Security Vacuum – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

President Barack Obama announced Wednesday that the United States will establish diplomatic relations with Cuba and open an embassy in Havana as part of a plan to chart a new course in relations with the island state and to further engage and empower the Cuban people.

In a statement the White House noted that the two nations, “are separated by 90 miles of water, but brought together through the relationships between the two million Cubans and Americans of Cuban descent that live in the United States, and the 11 million Cubans who share similar hopes for a more positive future for Cuba.”

The White House statement noted, “It is clear that decades of U.S. isolation of Cuba have failed to accomplish our enduring objective of promoting the emergence of a democratic, prosperous, and stable Cuba.  At times, longstanding U.S. policy towards Cuba has isolated the United States from regional and international partners, constrained our ability to influence outcomes throughout the Western Hemisphere, and impaired the use of the full range of tools available to the United States to promote positive change in Cuba.  Though this policy has been rooted in the best of intentions, it has had little effect – today, as in 1961, Cuba is governed by the Castros and the Communist party.”

The White House added that, “We know from hard-learned experience that it is better to encourage and support reform than to impose policies that will render a country a failed state.  With our actions today, we are calling on Cuba to unleash the potential of 11 million Cubans by ending unnecessary restrictions on their political, social, and economic activities.  In that spirit, we should not allow U.S. sanctions to add to the burden of Cuban citizens we seek to help.”

Key Components of the Updated Policy Approach:

Since taking office in 2009, President Obama has taken steps aimed at supporting the ability of the Cuban people to gain greater control over their own lives and determine their country’s future.

Obama announced Wednesday additional measures to end “our outdated approach, and to promote more effectively change in Cuba that is consistent with U.S. support for the Cuban people and in line with U.S. national security interests,” the White House said.

According to the White House, major elements of the President’s new approach include:

Establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba

The President has instructed the Secretary of State to immediately initiate discussions with Cuba on the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba, which were severed in January 1961.

“In the coming months, we will re-establish an embassy in Havana and carry out high-level exchanges and visits between our two governments as part of the normalization process.  As an initial step, the Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs will lead the U.S. Delegation to the next round of U.S.-Cuba Migration Talks in January 2015, in Havana,” the White House said.

The White House added that U.S. engagement will be critical when appropriate and will include continued strong support for improved human rights conditions and democratic reforms in Cuba and other measures aimed at fostering improved conditions for the Cuban people.

The United States will work with Cuba on matters of mutual concern and that advance U.S. national interests, such as migration, counternarcotics, environmental protection, and trafficking in persons, among other issues.

Adjusting regulations to more effectively empower the Cuban people

The changes announced today will soon be implemented via amendments to regulations of the Departments of the Treasury and Commerce.

“Our travel and remittance policies are helping Cubans by providing alternative sources of information and opportunities for self-employment and private property ownership, and by strengthening independent civil society,” the White House said, adding that, “These measures will further increase people-to-people contact; further support civil society in Cuba; and further enhance the free flow of information to, from, and among the Cuban people.  Persons must comply with all provisions of the revised regulations; violations of the terms and conditions are enforceable under U.S. law.”

Facilitating an expansion of travel under general licenses for the 12 existing categories of travel to Cuba authorized by law

General licenses will be made available for all authorized travelers in the following existing categories: (1) family visits; (2) official business of the U.S. government, foreign governments, and certain intergovernmental organizations; (3) journalistic activity; (4) professional research and professional meetings; (5) educational activities; (6) religious activities; (7) public performances, clinics, workshops, athletic and other competitions, and exhibitions; (8) support for the Cuban people; (9) humanitarian projects; (10) activities of private foundations or research or educational institutes; (11) exportation, importation, or transmission of information or information materials; and (12) certain export transactions that may be considered for authorization under existing regulations and guidelines.

Travelers in the 12 categories of travel to Cuba authorized by law will be able to make arrangements through any service provider that complies with the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) regulations governing travel services to Cuba, and general licenses will authorize provision of such services.

The policy changes make it easier for Americans to provide business training for private Cuban businesses and small farmers and provide other support for the growth of Cuba’s nascent private sector.

Additional options for promoting the growth of entrepreneurship and the private sector in Cuba will be explored.

Facilitating remittances to Cuba by U.S. persons

Remittance levels will be raised from $500 to $2,000 per quarter for general donative remittances to Cuban nationals (except to certain officials of the government or the Communist party); and donative remittances for humanitarian projects, support for the Cuban people, and support for the development of private businesses in Cuba will no longer require a specific license.

Remittance forwarders will no longer require a specific license.

Authorizing expanded commercial sales/exports from the United States of certain goods and services

The expansion will seek to empower the nascent Cuban private sector.  Items that will be authorized for export include certain building materials for private residential construction, goods for use by private sector Cuban entrepreneurs, and agricultural equipment for small farmers.  This change will make it easier for Cuban citizens to have access to certain lower-priced goods to improve their living standards and gain greater economic independence from the state.
Authorizing American citizens to import additional goods from Cuba-

Licensed U.S. travelers to Cuba will be authorized to import $400 worth of goods from Cuba, of which no more than $100 can consist of tobacco products and alcohol combined.

Facilitating authorized transactions between the United States and Cuba

U.S. institutions will be permitted to open correspondent accounts at Cuban financial institutions to facilitate the processing of authorized transactions.

The regulatory definition of the statutory term “cash in advance” will be revised to specify that it means “cash before transfer of title”; this will provide more efficient financing of authorized trade with Cuba.
U.S. credit and debit cards will be permitted for use by travelers to Cuba.

These measures will improve the speed, efficiency, and oversight of authorized payments between the United States and Cuba.

Initiating new efforts to increase Cubans’ access to communications and their ability to communicate freely

Cuba has an internet penetration of about five percent—one of the lowest rates in the world.  The cost of telecommunications in Cuba is exorbitantly high, while the services offered are extremely limited.
The commercial export of certain items that will contribute to the ability of the Cuban people to communicate with people in the United States and the rest of the world will be authorized.  This will include the commercial sale of certain consumer communications devices, related software, applications, hardware, and services, and items for the establishment and update of communications-related systems.

Telecommunications providers will be allowed to establish the necessary mechanisms, including infrastructure, in Cuba to provide commercial telecommunications and internet services, which will improve telecommunications between the United States and Cuba.

Updating the application of Cuba sanctions in third countries

U.S.-owned or -controlled entities in third countries will be generally licensed to provide services to, and engage in financial transactions with, Cuban individuals in third countries.  In addition, general licenses will unblock the accounts at U.S. banks of Cuban nationals who have relocated outside of Cuba; permit U.S. persons to participate in third-country professional meetings and conferences related to Cuba; and, allow foreign vessels to enter the United States after engaging in certain humanitarian trade with Cuba, among other measures.

Pursuing discussions with the Cuban and Mexican governments to discuss unresolved maritime boundary in the Gulf of Mexico

Previous agreements between the United States and Cuba delimit the maritime space between the two countries within 200 nautical miles from shore.  The United States, Cuba, and Mexico have extended continental shelf in an area within the Gulf of Mexico where the three countries have not yet delimited any boundaries.
The United States is prepared to invite the governments of Cuba and Mexico to discuss shared maritime boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico.

Initiating a review of Cuba’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism

The President has instructed the Secretary of State to immediately launch such a review, and provide a report to the President within six months regarding Cuba’s support for international terrorism.  Cuba was placed on the list in 1982.

Addressing Cuba’s participation in the 2015 Summit of the Americas in Panama

President Obama will participate in the Summit of the Americas in Panama.  Human rights and democracy will be key Summit themes.  Cuban civil society must be allowed to participate along with civil society from other countries participating in the Summit, consistent with the region’s commitments under the Inter-American Democratic Charter.  The United States welcomes a constructive dialogue among Summit governments on the Summit’s principles.
Unwavering Commitment to Democracy, Human Rights, and Civil Society

A critical focus of our increased engagement will include continued strong support by the United States for improved human rights conditions and democratic reforms in Cuba.  The promotion of democracy supports universal human rights by empowering civil society and a person’s right to speak freely, peacefully assemble, and associate, and by supporting the ability of people to freely determine their future.   Our efforts are aimed at promoting the independence of the Cuban people so they do not need to rely on the Cuban state.

The U.S. Congress funds democracy programming in Cuba to provide humanitarian assistance, promote human rights and fundamental freedoms, and support the free flow of information in places where it is restricted and censored.  The Administration will continue to implement U.S. programs aimed at promoting positive change in Cuba, and we will encourage reforms in our high level engagement with Cuban officials.

The United States said it encourages all nations and organizations engaged in diplomatic dialogue with the Cuban government to take every opportunity both publicly and privately to support increased respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms in Cuba.

“Ultimately, it will be the Cuban people who drive economic and political reforms.  That is why President Obama took steps to increase the flow of resources and information to ordinary Cuban citizens in 2009, 2011, and today.  The Cuban people deserve the support of the United States and of an entire region that has committed to promote and defend democracy through the Inter-American Democratic Charter,” the White House said.

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The European Parliament said in a resolution passed on Wednesday that it supports “in principle recognition of Palestinian statehood and the two state solution, and believes these should go hand in hand with the development of peace talks, which should be advanced.”

To support EU diplomatic efforts in the Middle East peace process, the European Parliament also decided to launch a “Parliamentarians for Peace” initiative to bring together MEPs and MPs from the Israeli and Palestinian parliaments.

Palestine

The resolution was drawn up by five political groups and passed by Parliament as a whole, by 498 votes to 88, with 111 abstentions.

The Parliament reiterated, “its strong support for the two-state solution on the basis of the 1967 borders, with Jerusalem as the capital of both states, with the secure State of Israel and an independent, democratic, contiguous and viable Palestinian State living side by side in peace and security on the basis of the right of self-determination and full respect of international law”.

MEPs also condemned in the strongest terms all acts of terrorism or violence.

Palestinian factions urged to end internal divisions

MEPs stressed the importance of consolidating the authority of the Palestinian consensus government and urge all Palestinian factions, including Hamas, to end internal divisions.

Additionally, the resolution reiterated that Israeli settlements are illegal under international law, and called on the EU to become a genuine facilitator in the Middle East peace process and asked the EU’s foreign policy High Representative to facilitate a common EU position to this end.

The post European Parliament Votes To Recognize Palestinian Statehood ‘In Principle’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Shankari Sundararaman*

The Indo-Pacific is a term gaining wider acceptance as a geopolitical reality. If any country has the advantage of being at the centre of this emerging identity, it is Indonesia. This vast archipelagic region strides the two oceans – Indian and the Pacific – lending credence to the idea of the confluence of the two oceans, which was critical to the formulation of this concept.

Over the past month, Indonesia has been making greater claims to its Pacific identity in order to meet the challenges in its easternmost province, West Papua.

One of the aspects of this new shift in its thinking is that Jakarta has begun to project itself as the rightful representative of the Melanesian population living within its boundaries. This position, which the Indonesian government is seeking to assert, is fraught with difficulties, especially since the Melanesian ethnic identity is clearly associated with the region of West Papua.

West Papua has been a highly debated issue in the Indonesian political history. West Papua forms the western part of the island of New Guinea, which, during the colonial period, was divided among three colonial powers. The Dutch expansion in the East Indies extended to this area that was initially called the Dutch New Guinea. The Indonesian nationalist movement was unable to wrest control of this region from the Dutch and till 1969, the region remained a contested area. When the Dutch granted independence to Indonesia, the region became known as Irian Barat (West Irian) and then Irian Jaya, before it was changed to the current West Papua. The eastern part of the island forms the independent nation-state of Papua New Guinea, which had been colonised by the Germans and the British.

Dutch attempts to quell the Indonesian freedom struggle led to the region being marked as a special region that was to be kept under Dutch influence. However, the leaders of the newly-independent state categorically supported the fact that the province was a critical part of the Indonesian state’s territorial extant.

In the early 1960s there were minor skirmishes between the Dutch and the Indonesian armed forces in an effort to gain control of the region. In 1962, the region was placed under the UN as an administered territory and was officially transferred to Indonesia in 1963. This transfer mandated that a referendum would be held to allow the Papuans to decide their own destiny. In 1969, the Act of Free Choice was initiated using a consensus method of decision making in which 1054 elders of the Papuan community cast their vote to remain with Indonesia.

During the New Order period, from 1965-1998, the region witnessed several conflicts. Since 1969, separatist groups like the Organisasi Papua Merdeka (OPM) or the Free Papua Movement rebelled against the Indonesian state. Added to this was the role of conglomerates like the Freeport McMoran Mines that have been involved in the exploitation of the region’s resources. Till 1999, the level of central control was extremely high. The government actively encouraged demographic changes in the region through its policy of transmigration that altered the ethnic balance in the region in an attempt to dilute the separatist conflict. Following the country’s transition to democracy, the implementation of the 2001 Special Autonomy Laws in the cases of Aceh and Papua have been welcome steps through which the government tried to address the issue of decentralisation and devolution of powers.

Furthermore, the law seeks to address granting a share of the natural resources and fiscal sharing in the region.

Since 2011, Indonesia has used its diplomacy to defend its claims of having the largest Melanesian population – 11 million – in the region. In fact, the country sought membership to the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) on the strength of this claim. There have been several critiques of this move, especially since it was seen as an effort to hijack the attention of other members of the MSG from the separatism demands in West Papua. In the 2013 summit of the MSG, a group supporting separatism – the West Papuan National Coalition for Liberation – was to be allowed observer status, but flurried diplomatic activity by the Indonesian government led to a dilution of the issue. While this meeting initially sought to support the West Papuans’ right to self-determination, it was later reversed, especially in the January 2014 meeting where it was decided that the other members of the MSG would not interfere in Indonesia’s internal affairs.

The recent electoral shift in Indonesia, which marks a critical phase of democratic consolidation, allows for the creation of a necessary space to address the issues that plague the West Papuan region. Indonesia’s pitch as a home for the Melanesian ethnic community needs to be translated into action where special autonomy laws go further so as to allow separatist political groups to be part of the political space.

Shankari Sundararaman
Chairperson, Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

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