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Iraq-Kurdistan Agreement: New Hope To Be Treated Sensitively – Analysis

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By Ömer Faruk Topal

Baghdad and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) reached a formal agreement to end yearlong oil export and budget disputes between two parties which shook the foundations of unitary Iraq.

This agreement is endorsed by the Iraqi cabinet and will bring into force at the beginning of 2015. The agreement allows export of 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the oilfields in northern Kurdish region and 300,000 bpd of Kirkuk oil through Turkey. The crude oil will be transmitted via pipeline run by KRG, but will be sold by Iraqi state-owned oil company named State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO). Within the scope of agreement, the KRG will deliver 250,000 barrels of oil per day from oilfields in the Kurdistan Region to Baghdad. This oil will be sold by SOMO at Ceyhan port with the same mechanism used for Basra oil. Money will be transferred to an escrow account in New York, instead of Turkish state-owned Halkbank which was assigned previously by the contracts signed by the KRG and Turkey. In turn, Baghdad government agreed to send 17 percent of state budged revenue (approximately 17 billion dollars) to Kurdish Government and paying KRG employees’ salaries. For more than a year, Baghdad government had cut the payment in protest against KRG’s unilateral oil export efforts which is seen by Baghdad as an illegal and unconstitutional act. Iraq would also pay 1 billion dollar for salaries and equipments of Peshmerga forces which is a crucial part of fight against ISIS. Baghdad will also grant 500 million dollars which will be used to cover October and November expenses of KRG to ease budget pressure.

This agreement creates a positive atmosphere for political and economic situation in Iraq. It would help increase oil exports and ameliorate the country’s budget which substantially depends on oil revenues and is being worn by low oil prices, inefficient production methods and current security crisis.

Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi claimed that this agreement was in both sides’ interest and leads to a win-win situation. He told that, “If we insist on being stubborn, we will have a lose-lose situation, because the Kurds will not be able to export any amount of oil and we will not receive even one barrel from the north”. Kurdish politician and Minister of Finance Hosyar Zebari described this agreement as a major breakthrough that would reduce controversy between the Kurds and Baghdad. There are also positive signs from KRG. Regarding the agreement, Prime Minister of KRG Nechirvan Barzani explained that, “After the former Iraqi Prime Minister unilaterally cut the share of the Kurdistan Region from the Iraqi budget, we have attempted to resolve the issue through dialogue. Fortunately, we reached an agreement with Prime Minister Abadi and his team on a number of issues. We believe the agreement is transparent and serves the interests of both the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad. Both sides came to an agreement successfully”.

After the announcement, the deal received international support and created optimism in international circles. State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf praised the agreement by saying that, “Iraqi and Kurdistan Regional Governments on reaching a broad agreement on revenue management and oil exports originating from the Iraq Kurdistan Region and Kirkuk. This resolution, in line with its constitution, allows all Iraqis to benefit equitably from Iraq’s hydrocarbon sector. This agreement will further strengthen both Iraq’s Federal Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government as they work together to defeat ISIS”.

The Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Iraq (SRSG), Mr. Nickolay Mladenov welcomed the agreement and stated, “I commend both Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi and KR-I Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani for their leadership and spirit of compromise in reaching this encouraging agreement.”

Turkey also responded positively to the agreement. As quoted by Anadolu Agency, “Turkish Foreign Ministry underscored that the resolution is very important for the country’s security and people’s prosperity,” and added that, “We also see the agreement as a positive step towards the security of the international energy supply and Turkey’s cooperation with Iraq on energy”. The Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom Philip Hammond congratulated all concerned for their work to resolve this long-standing disagreement.

7 important dimensions of the agreement

This agreement is important for 7 reasons. First, it revived the hopes for unitary Iraq. Kurds’ efforts to sell oil unilaterally had created anger and mistrust in Baghdad and Baghdad’s decision to stop payment to the KRG had been described by the President of the KRG Masoud Barzani as a “declaration of war” against Kurds. At that time, rumors of independence had become louder. After the fall of Mosul to ISIS, the Kurdistan Region’s parliament has approved a law for an independent electoral commission without having to refer to Baghdad, which is responsible for holding elections, referendums and fixing dates for voting. This act was interpreted by many experts as a preparation for independence. After the agreement, statements and announcements from both sides showed that both parties are willing to act together, at least now.

Second, one of the very first coming problems of Iraq was the Nouri al-Maliki’s exclusionary policies towards different segments of the society. Kurds and Sunnis felt marginalized and discriminated under Maliki’s rule. Because of these policies, Sunni-populated areas became center of insurgency and Kurds were alienated from being Iraqi. Abadi was expected to alleviate these sentiments and to provide social cohesion. This agreement can be considered as a brave step for reconciliation between feuding parties.

Third, this deal would boost cooperation between Erbil and Baghdad to fight against ISIS. It is considered as the most urgent problem of Iraq and it is quite challenging for central government to deal with it alone. Peshmerga forces are fighting now on a line of approximately 1000 kilometers and Baghdad government needs this force to protect its citizens that it cannot do alone.

Fourth, unlike other militia groups, the Peshmerga is the only officially-recognized armed group other than Iraqi army. Ac­cording to Article 121’s item 5 of the Iraqi constitution, “The regional gov­ernment shall be responsible for all the administrative requirements of the region, particularly the establishment and organization of the internal security forces for the region such as police, security forces, and guards of the region”. In spite of this legal recognition, Baghdad’s relations with Peshmerga have been controversial. With the agreement, this thorny situation somewhat changed. As mentioned above, Baghdad government will pay 1 billion dollar to Peshmerga. Allocation a portion of national budget to Peshmerga (this payment is not from the 17 percent allocated to the KRG, it will send from the federal budget) means that Baghdad sees Peshmerga forces as a part of Iraqi defense system.

Fifth, Kurds gained leverage in Kirkuk. Kurds seized de facto control of the city after Iraqi forces deserted their position subsequent to the ISIS attack. The oil-rich city consisting of Turkmen, Kurd and Arab populations is strategically important for all parties and Kurds describe the city as “Jerusalem of Kurds.” With this agreement, Kirkuk oil fields will be connected to the global market via KRG pipeline to Turkey, because the original pipeline has been attacked several times and is currently under ISIS control. With this agreement, Kurds’ control over Kirkuk’s oil strengthened. This means that Kurds have a new leverage in Kirkuk and strengthened their hands for future claims.

Sixth, Kirkuk oil fields will be opened to the international market. Due to a couple of political and security reasons, Kirkuk fields remained inactive. According to SOMO statistics, in 2014, from January to October 751.7 million barrels of crude oil were exported. 735.8 million barrels of it was Basra crude and only 15.9 million barrels was Kirkuk. In April, May, June, July, August, and September Kirkuk oil was not exported. The highest export level of Kirkuk oil occurred in February (8.2 million barrels). If this agreement can be actualized and technical problems can be solved, 9 million barrels of Kirkuk oil would be supplied monthly to the global energy market.

Seventh, KRG is now legally open to international oil companies and big investments. Kurds have already sold their crude through pipelines or trucks without permission of Bagdad. Until November 28, tankers were loaded by Kurdish crude independently from Baghdad. However, there is a huge difference between selling oil independently from Baghdad and in accordance with Baghdad. Many big companies avoid investing in KRG in order to secure their investments in the south. Furthermore, it was difficult to find costumers for Kurdish crude, because buyers abstained Baghdad’s lawsuits.

KRG’s production capacity had reached 300,000 bpd by the end of 2013 and it is expected to reach to 1 million bpd in short term. With estimated reserves of 45 billion barrels of oil and 2.8 to 5.7 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, KRG is considered as a new important player of global energy markets and supplier of rising energy demands. However, no one risks its investments in politically uncertain and instable regions. This agreement can provide international investors a better environment for their investments.

The other side of the medallion

This agreement has also some side effects. Supplying more oil to already oversupplied global market would decrease prices which is already low. After the announcement of the agreement West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in January fell $US2.12 to close at $US66.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil for January delivery, fall $US2.00 from $US70.54 a barrel its Monday closing level. This means that Baghdad may not achieve what it expects. It is also not clear whether technical capacity in Kirkuk allows 300,000 bpd of production.

Despite of being an important step, it is hard to claim that this agreement can terminate all divergences between Erbil and Baghdad. Problem of distrust between the parties was not solved. Prime Minister Barzani’s explanation that, “There are no guarantees that the Iraqi government will not cut the Kurdistan Region’s share of the budget. We should not forget, however, that if they cut our share, we hold a key to their oil export” proves this reality. Regional Parliament’s Spokesman Yusuf Mohammed Sadik emphasized that independence is still at the table. “If the Iraqi constitution is not implemented and the Iraqi government does not observe Kurds’ rights in the constitution, the Kurdish region will hold a referendum for independence,” he told Anadolu Agency on December 6, four days after the agreement. Additionally, in case of oil supply that is more than determined level in the agreement, it remains unclear that who will own the money. KRG pays contractors that operate in its borders, but it is still vague who will pay international oil companies in Kirkuk. Another problem is that although 17 percent of national budget is allocated Kurds previously, it should be noted that it is net state revenue which is gross revenues minus sovereign expenses. This means that Kurds received only 11-12 percent. If the security crisis deepens in Iraq, security expenses will rise and this will cause reduction to money allocated to KRG. If KRG budget is stressed out, new problems may arise between two parties.

The post Iraq-Kurdistan Agreement: New Hope To Be Treated Sensitively – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


US, Japan And South Korea To Share Intel On North Korea

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Officials from Washington, Tokyo and Seoul will sign a trilateral intelligence-sharing pact in an effort to strengthen their surveillance network on the nuclear-armed pariah state of North Korea, Seoul officials said.

Although the United States already shares intelligence on North Korean activities separately with South Korea and Japan, the trilateral agreement marks a historic partnership for the three nations.

Due to historic tensions connected to Japan’s colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945, the sharing of intelligence between Tokyo and Seoul marks a significant step forward in bilateral relations between the two Pacific powers.

In April, President Obama’s Asia tour seemed to have succeeded in reducing regional tensions over historical and territorial issues hampering Washington’s efforts at trilateral cooperation.

During his visit, the US leader gave Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe assurances that the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which have been a matter of controversy with China, are Japanese territory. Obama thus became the first US president to have “overtly stated that the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands fall within the purview of the US-Japan security treaty,” the Diplomat reported.

A Taepodong-2 rocket is launched from the North Korean rocket launch facility in Musudan Ri April 5, 2009 in this picture released by the North’s official news agency KCNA on April 8, 2009. (Reuters / KCNA)

A Taepodong-2 rocket is launched from the North Korean rocket launch facility in Musudan Ri April 5, 2009 in this picture released by the North’s official news agency KCNA on April 8, 2009. (Reuters / KCNA)

Later, at a press conference with South Korean President Park Geun-hye, Obama touched upon the sensitive subject of so-called comfort women – females forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army during World War II, which was “a terrible, egregious violation of human rights.”

These statements soothed historic tensions and helped seal the deal between Seoul and Tokyo.

According to the agreement, to be signed on Monday, South Korean and Japanese officials will share intelligence on Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs, via Washington, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said in a statement, AP reported.

On October 9, 2006, North Korea stunned the world when it carried out its first underground nuclear test, followed by a second test almost three years later. On February 12, 2013, the closed communist country announced it had conducted its third underground nuclear test in seven years, although Japanese and South Korean investigators had failed to detect any radiation.

In light of these ongoing tests, Seoul believes North Korea has made progress in its efforts to develop and produce nuclear missiles that are capable of reaching US territory, or US military bases that are located in both South Korea and Japan.

The two Koreas remain technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean War was concluded with an armistice as opposed to a formal peace treaty.

In October, troops of the rival Koreas exchanged gunfire along their heavily fortified border several times, though no causalities were reported.

The post US, Japan And South Korea To Share Intel On North Korea appeared first on Eurasia Review.

J&K: The Fractured Mandate – Analysis

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By Shujaat Bukhari*

A political commentator has rightly advised that no exit poll should be conducted in respect of Jammu and Kashmir. This has come true today as nothing can be predicted about the mood of the people, particularly in Kashmir valley. After intense and colourful campaigning spread over two months, the most watched Assembly elections threw up many surprises, except for Jammu region where Bhartiya Janata Party was expected to register a decent victory. Though BJP’s much publicized Mission 44 + got foiled as the party drew a blank from Muslim majority Valley, its victory can still be seen as spectacular. Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which was banking upon ostensible anti-incumbency against the Omar Abdullah led coalition government, too was shocked to see its performance.

The results that finally came up do not promise to end the coalition era as the mandate is fractured beyond the expectations of the political parties. The numbers have placed all the parties particularly two leading ones—PDP and BJP in a piquant position. The alignments are too difficult to mature thus leading to a phase of uncertainty as far as government formation is concerned. No permutations and combinations can easily be stitched as those having potential to forge an alliance have completely diverse ideologies. If one takes the example of PDP with 28 seats and BJP with 25 joining the hands, it may take days for them to build a consensus, put their ideological standpoints on the back burner and seek commitments from each other and draw a common minimum programme.

As the saying goes “Politics is Art of Impossible”. This could also happen as many within both BJP and PDP would not see each other as untouchable. But it would be a long jump for both and the road is bumpy. For PDP the mandate has a pro Kashmir element in it that was triggered partly due to BJP’s extra efforts in the Valley. So the fine balance would be a test that may be difficult for it to pass.

With both Ghulam Nabi Azad (Congress) and Omar Abdullah (NC) not ruling out the consideration of support to PDP, new combinations may emerge to move forward on government formation. Omar hinted of NC’s support to PDP while saying “There is a crack (in the window) open for the PDP… if Mufti Sayeed picks up the phone,” in an interview on Tuesday. The two regional parties NC and PDP should not ignore the possibility of an alliance in the larger interest of the people.

But in both cases PDP would require the support of “others” to cobble up the numbers. And above all, it may not like, rather afford to affront the NDA government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Any new government in Srinagar would require whole-hearted support from New Delhi in terms of both economic and political agendas and on the face of it the current government is not going to do that unless it has stakes in the power structure. What has become apparent in last eight months is that Modi is not Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who without caring about his party’s political interests in Jammu and Kashmir would support a government in the state. The BJP has heavily invested in the state of Jammu and Kashmir and has reaped the benefit partly. Its right, left and centre campaign during the elections stands testimony to the fact that it was seriously making inroads into the state. It is a different issue that the party drew a blank in Kashmir valley.

Moreover, even if the PDP-Congress or for that matter an NC supported PDP led government is formed, it will lack the full representation of Jammu region and will not be inclusive one. The ultimate result would again push the state into instability as a government with oxygen from one or the other corner cannot deliver on ground. It, however, remains to be seen as to how much time it will take for the PDP as the leading party to push itself into government formation. Next few days are crucial for Jammu and Kashmir as the course of action will surely set the direction for the politics which is divided on several lines.

What is, however, disturbing is the fact that verdict has been delivered on the basis of religion. Except for Ladakh region, both Kashmir and Jammu seem to have voted purely in a polarized manner. BJP worked hard to consolidate the Hindu vote in Jammu region and even spread its hands to Chenab where it has for the first time registered a remarkable victory. BJP’s sweep in the region, except for two seats of Nagrota and Bishna, which went to NC, shows it clearly how the electorate has behaved. Though NC is boasting that it has the pan Jammu and Kashmir presence, the victory’s credit in three seats goes more to the candidates who were fighting elections on its ticket. In Zanskar it had supported an Independent candidate and he won. Likewise in Kashmir valley, results show that the votes were polled by a particular party, though here there is no mixed presence of political parties who would ask for votes on the basis of religion. This division within the Kashmir and Jammu regions poses a threat to the unity of the state and that is why it has emerged as a strong factor for keeping the political parties away from coming together in the formation of the government.

Vote margin by which BJP has lost in most constituencies in Valley indicate that its entry and acceptance here is not going to be an easy one. BJP voters compared to non-BJP voters in Valley make it clear: Amira Kadal 11,726 to 1359 (BJP); Anantnag 16983 to 1275 (BJP); Bandipora 25,084 to 565; Batmaloo 12,542 to 1304; Bijbehara 23581 to 1591 (BJP); Budgam 30090 to 880 (BJP); Chrar-i-Sharif 32,849 to 845 (BJP); Hazratbal 13, 234 to 2635 (BJP); Khanyar 6505, 550 (BJP); and so on. The polarization is a reality though political parties continue to be in denial.

*Shujaat Bukhari
Editor, Rising Kashmir

By arrangement with Rising Kashmir

The post J&K: The Fractured Mandate – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Azerbaijan: RFE/RL’s Baku Bureau Falls Victim To Media Crackdown

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Radio Azadliq, the Azerbaijani service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, became the latest victim of the government’s campaign to stamp out media pluralism when inspectors raided its Baku bureau today and then placed it under seal as they left, according to Reporters Without Borders.

They confiscated documents after breaking open the office safe. They also took two laptops, the office’s main server, cameras and video cameras, memory cards and other information storage devices.

“Words fail for describing the scale of the crackdown under way in Azerbaijan,” said Johann Bihr, the head of the Eastern Europe and Central Asia desk. “President Ilham Aliyev’s government is methodically crushing each of the remaining independent news outlets one by one. International bodies and Azerbaijan’s foreign partners need to respond firmly to such determined ruthlessness.”

The inspectors arrived at around 10:30 a.m. with a warrant issued as part of an investigation into several NGOs and media that receive foreign funding. They did not however show any document authorizing them to place the office under seal and they did not say how long the closure would last.

As soon as the inspectors arrived, the office’s phone and Internet lines were disconnected and most of the journalists were herded into a single room and were forced to stay there until the end of the operation, when they were escorted out of the building.

“This operation is clearly designed to block the activities of our Baku bureau and threaten our journalists,” Radio Azadliq director Kenan Aliyev told Reporters Without Borders.

In a statement, Radio Azadliq co-director and editor Nenad Pejic said: “The order comes from the top as retaliation for our reporting and as a thuggish effort to silence RFE/RL.”

The station added that it intended to continue operating in Azerbaijan. RFE/RL has been banned from broadcasting since 2009 but continues to reach the Azerbaijani public via the Internet.

In a separate development, a Baku court today rejected a request for the conditional release of Khadija Ismayilova, a leading investigative journalist and human rights defender who used to be Radio Azadliq’s Baku bureau chief.

Reporters Without Borders reiterates its call for signatures to its petition for the immediate and unconditional release of Ismayilova, who was arrested on trumped-up charges on 5 December.

The closure of Radio Azadliq’s Baku office follows similar measures against Azerbaijan’s leading media support NGOs in August, when the offices of the Institute for Reporters Freedom and Safety, the Media Rights Institute and the International Research & Exchanges Board (IREX) were all raided and place under seal.

The past few months have seen an unprecedented crackdown on Azerbaijan’s independent journalists, bloggers and netizens, as well as the NGOs that support them.

No fewer than 15 journalists and bloggers are currently detained in connection with the provision of news and information, without their right to due process being respected. This makes Azerbaijan Europe’s biggest prison for news providers.

Even before this latest crackdown, Azerbaijan was ranked as low as 160th out of 180 countries in the 2014 Reporters Without Borders press freedom index.

The post Azerbaijan: RFE/RL’s Baku Bureau Falls Victim To Media Crackdown appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sony Hack, Fearless Journalism And Conflicts Of Interest – OpEd

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Given that The Intercept is a publication that trumpets its commitment to fearless journalism, you’d think they’d be all over the Sony hack story. National security threats, hacking, corporate power, cyberattacks — aren’t these more than enough ingredients for some hard-hitting investigative journalism?

Apparently not.

Instead we get Jana Winter (who before moving to The Intercept was a reporter at FoxNews.com for six years) recycling an old narrative about governmental negligence: “FBI warned Year Ago of impending Malware Attacks — But Didn’t Share Info with Sony.”

Nearly one year before Sony was hacked, the FBI warned that U.S. companies were facing potentially crippling data destruction malware attacks, and predicted that such a hack could cause irreparable harm to a firm’s reputation, or even spell the end of the company entirely. The FBI also detailed specific guidance for U.S. companies to follow to prepare and plan for such an attack.

But the FBI never sent Sony the report.

The Dec. 13, 2013 FBI Intelligence Assessment, “Potential Impacts of a Data-Destruction Malware Attack on a U.S. Critical Infrastructure Company’s Network,” warned that companies “must become prepared for the increasing possibility they could become victim to a data destruction cyber attack.”

How could Sony have been adequately prepared to meet this threat if the FBI had neglected to send them their report?!

Urrr… maybe Sony’s global chief information security officer Philip Reitinger knew something about the risks of a data destruction cyber attack. After all, directly before moving to Sony in 2011, Reitinger had been Deputy Under Secretary of the National Protection and Programs Directorate (NPPD) and Director of the National Cyber Security Center (NCSC) at the United States Department of Homeland Security. It seems likely that one way or another, Reitinger saw the FBI report.

Winter closes her “report” by quoting a source within the “information security industry” who said: “The question is, who dropped the ball?”

The Intercept in its headline and paragraph two doesn’t hesitate to answer that “question”: The FBI.

This is really a bizarrely irrelevant narrative to be spinning, given that there has already been so much reporting on Sony’s own negligence in handling cyber-security.

Winter makes the dubious assertion that in the eyes of the U.S. government, Sony is part of this nation’s “critical infrastructure” — the implication apparently being that the FBI is responsible for safeguarding the company’s cyber-security standards.

For The Intercept to want to portray the Sony story as a story about the failings of the U.S. government, is perhaps to be expected, given the ideological straightjacket inside which the publication remains trapped.

But maybe I’m just being cynical in thinking that there might be another explanation: that Glenn Greenwald hasn’t abandoned all hope Sony will produce his Snowden movie — even though a leaked November 14 email from Sony executive Doug Belgrad wrote that the Greenwald project “is unlikely to happen” — and so doesn’t want to embarrass his commercial partner.

Even if the Snowden movie has no bearing here, there is a deeper philosophical problem that the Sony hack story presents to The Intercept and everyone with a visceral fear of government.

American companies, fully aware of the government’s data collection capabilities want to see a more proactive partnership between the public and private sectors to improve information security and thwart cyberattacks. At the same time, libertarians and much of the public at large want to see these capabilities reined in, and businesses themselves don’t want to be burdened by overregulation.

Much as free-market economics promotes a myth of a self-balancing system that functions most efficiently by suffering the least governmental interference, the information economy sustains similar myths about its ability to self-organize.

But on the cyber frontier, threats from the likes of North Korea are probably smaller than those posed by agents whose identities remain forever concealed and whose motives may be as difficult to discern.

This year, hackers caused “massive damage” to a steel factory in Germany by gaining access to control systems that would have generally been expected to be physically separated from the internet, yet the emerging Internet of Things in which as many as 30 billion devices are expected to be connected by the end of the decade, suggests that physically destructive cyberattacks are destined to become much more commonplace.

The politics of information security right now favors an approach in which everyone is expected to maintain their own systems of fortification and yet the protection of collective interests may demand that we live in a world where there is much greater data transparency.

As things stand right now on the information highways, none of the vehicles are licensed, no one has insurance, most of the drivers are robots, and most of the robots are employed by crooks.

The post Sony Hack, Fearless Journalism And Conflicts Of Interest – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Tanzania: Police Hold Suspected Kenyan Ivory Smuggling Ring Leader

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A Kenyan national suspected of leading an international ivory smuggling syndicate has been arrested in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania after he was targeted by an INTERPOL operation focusing on individuals wanted for environmental crimes.

According to INTERPOL, Feisal Ali was highlighted by INTERPOL’s Operation Infra Terra (International Fugitive Round Up and Arrest) and featured in a worldwide INTERPOL public appeal for information in November. He is the second high-profile suspect to be arrested as part of Operation Infra Terra after Ben Simasiku was arrested in Zambia earlier this month.

Ali was the subject of an INTERPOL Red Notice for internationally wanted persons issued at the request of Kenyan authorities who suspect him of being behind an international ivory smuggling ring. In June authorities in Mombasa allegedly found him in possession of 314 pieces of ivory weighing more than 2.1 tonnes, including 228 complete elephant tusks.

Launched on 6 October, INTERPOL’s Operation Infra Terra gathered investigators from 21 of the participating countries at INTERPOL’s General Secretariat headquarters in Lyon to directly share information on more than 130 suspects wanted by 36 countries for crimes including illegal fishing, wildlife trafficking, illegal trade and disposal of waste, illegal logging and trading in illicit ivory.

Details of the wanted persons, their suspected locations and any other potentially identifying information were collated and analyzed, before being sent to participating countries for further action.

During the operation, with the support of INTERPOL’s Fugitive Investigative Support (FIS) unit, investigators from Kenya and Tanzania exchanged information on Ali and his suspected location in Dar Es Salaam, via INTERPOL’s global tools, its National Central Bureaus (NCBs) in Dar Es Salaam and Nairobi as well as the Kenya Wildlife Service.

“This operation highlights the benefits of INTERPOL working collectively with member countries and partners to disrupt serious organized crime relating to our iconic endangered wildlife. This and other such initiatives are very important areas of focus for the Organization,” said Glyn Lewis, INTERPOL’s Director of Specialized Crime and Analysis.

The Head of INTERPOL’s FIS unit, Stefano Carvelli, said: “Through actions such as Operation Infra Terra, INTERPOL and its member countries want to underline the serious nature of crimes against wildlife and the environment. This arrest once again demonstrates that fugitives will be sought, located and arrested to face justice, regardless of the crime they have committed.”

“INTERPOL therefore congratulates its NCBs in Dar Es Salaam and Nairobi, as well as the Kenya Wildlife Service, for their role in the location and arrest of Feisal Ali. We also encourage the public to remain vigilant to assist police worldwide in locating and arresting the remaining fugitives wanted as part of Operation Infra Terra,” added Mr Carvelli.

Feisal Ali now awaits repatriation to Kenya to stand trial for the offences he is charged with.

The post Tanzania: Police Hold Suspected Kenyan Ivory Smuggling Ring Leader appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Israel, The Maccabees And My Glorious Brothers – OpEd

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WHEN I was 15 years old and a member of the Irgun underground (by today’s criteria, an honest-to-goodness terrorist organization), we sang “(In the past) we had the heroes / Bar Kochba and the Maccabees / Now we have the new ones / The national youth…” The melody was a German military marching song.

Why did we look for heroes in the remote past?

We were in desperate need of national heroes to emulate. For 18 centuries, Jews had not fought. Dispersed throughout the world, they saw no reason to fight for emperors and kings who mostly persecuted them. (Though some of them did. The first authentic hero of the new Zionist entity in Palestine was Josef Trumpeldor, one of the few Jewish officers in the Czar’s army, who lost an arm in the 1905 Russian-Japanese war and was killed in a skirmish with Arabs in Palestine.)

So we found the Maccabees, the Zealots and Bar Kochba.

THE MACCABEES, in whose honor we celebrated Hanukka this week, revolted against “the Greeks” in 167 B.C. “My Glorious Brothers” Howard Fast called them in his famous novel.

Actually, “the Greeks” were Syrians. When Alexander the Great’s empire was divided between his generals, Seleucus acquired Syria and the countries to the East. It was against this mini-empire that the Maccabees rose up.

It was not only a national-religious struggle against a regime which wanted to impose its Hellenic culture, but also a cruel civil war. The main struggle of the Maccabees was against the “Hellenizers”, the cultured modernist Jewish elite who spoke Greek and wanted to be part of the civilized world. The Maccabees were fundamentalist adherents of the old-time religion.

In today’s terms, they were the ISIS of their time. But that is not what we learned (and what is being taught today) in school.

The Maccabees (or Hasmoneans, their dynastic name) set up a Jewish state, the last one in Palestine, that lasted for 200 years. Unlike their successors and imitators, they had a lot of political acumen. Already during their rebellion they made contact with the up-and-coming Roman republic and secured its help.

Yet the Maccabees won by a quirk. Their revolt was a very risky adventure, and they owed their eventual victory to the problems that beset the Seleucid empire.

The irony of this story is that the Hasmonean kings themselves became thoroughly Hellenized and adopted Greek names.

THE NEXT great rebellion started in the year 66 AD. Unlike the Maccabee revolt, it was a totally mad affair.

The Zealots belonged to diverse competing groups, who remained disunited to the bitter end. Their rebellion, called “The Great Revolt”, was also a fanatical national-religious affair.

At the time, messianic ideas filled the air in Palestine. The country absorbed religious influences from all directions – Hellenic, Persian, Egyptian – and mixed them with the Jewish traditions. It was in this feverish atmosphere that Christianity was born and the Book of Job and other later books of the Hebrew Bible were composed.

With the Messiah expected any moment, Jewish fanatics did something that now seems incredible: they declared war on the Roman Empire, which was then at the height of its power. As if Israel today would declare war on the US, China and Russia at the same time – something even Binyamin Netanyahu would think twice about doing.

It took some time before the Romans gathered their legions, and the end was as could be foreseen: the Jewish community in the country was squashed, the temple was destroyed (perhaps by accident) and the Jews evicted from Jerusalem and many other places in Palestine.

Throughout, the Zealots believed in their God. In besieged Jerusalem, already starving, they burnt each other’s wheat, sure that God would provide. But God, it seems, was otherwise engaged.

At the height of the siege of Jerusalem, the venerable rabbi Yochanan Ben-Zakkai was smuggled by his pupils out of the city in a coffin, and the Romans allowed him to start a religious school in Yavneh, which became the focus of a new kind of anti-heroic Judaism.

HOWEVER, THE lesson of the catastrophe caused by the Zealots was not learned. Less than 70 years later, an adventurer called Bar Kochba (“Son of a Star”) started another war with the Roman Empire, even more hare-brained than the last.

At the beginning Bar Kochba, like the Zealots, won several victories, before the Romans could gather their forces. At that time, the important rabbis supported him. But his megalomaniac nature caused him to lose their support. He is said to have told God: “You don’t have to support me, but at least don’t obstruct me!”

The inevitable defeat of Bar Kochba was an even greater disaster than the previous one. Masses of Jews were sold into slavery, some were thrown to the lions in the Roman arena. A legend recounts that Bar Kochba fought a lion with his bare hands and killed it.

However, the basic Zionist tenet that the Jews were expelled from Palestine by force and that this was the beginning of the Diaspora (the “Exile”) is a legend. The Jewish peasant population remained in the country, and most became Christians, and later Muslims. Today’s Palestinians are probably mostly descendants of this Jewish population which clung to their soil. At one time, David Ben-Gurion supported this theory.

The Jewish religion was actually born in the Babylonian exile, some 500 years before Christ, and from the beginning the majority of the Jews lived outside Palestine, in Babylon, Egypt, Cyprus and many other countries around the Mediterranean. Palestine remained an important religious center which played a significant part in the transition of Judaism into a Diaspora religion based principally on the Talmud.

THE HANUKKA feast symbolizes the basic change of Judaism after the destruction of the Temple – and the counter-change effected by the Zionists in modern times.

The rabbis were against the cult of heroism, whether God-fearing or not. They belittled the battles of the Maccabees and found another reason to celebrate. It appears that a great miracle had happened, which was much more important than military victories: when the Temple was re-dedicated after being defiled by the “Greeks”, the sacred oil left sufficed only for one day. By divine intervention, this small quantity of oil lasted for a whole week. Hanukka was dedicated to this huge miracle. (Hanukka means literally inauguration, dedication).

The Book of the Maccabees, which recounts the struggle and the victory, was not included in the Hebrew Bible. The Hebrew original was lost.

(Hanukka, like Christmas, was originally a pagan festival celebrating the winter solstice, much as Passover and Easter are based on the pagan celebration of the spring equinox.)

The Jewish sages were determined to stamp out, once and for all, the craving for revolts and military adventures. Not only was Hanukka turned into an innocuous feast of sacred oil, but the Zealots and Bar Kochba were ignored or belittled in rabbinical writings, which shaped Judaism and Jewish life since then until this very day. Jews were supposed to adore God, not human heroes.

Until Zionism appeared on the scene. It resurrected the ancient heroes and turned them retrospectively into Zionists. The Maccabees, Zealots and Bar Kochba became our models. The mass suicide of the Zealots on the Masada mountain after the Great Revolt was celebrated as a glorious deed, generations of children were and are taught to admire them.

Today we have national heroes in great abundance, and really do not need all these ancient myths any more. But myths die slowly, if at all. Still, more and more voices of historians and such are cautiously raising doubts about their role in Jewish history. (I may have been the first, in an essay I wrote some four decades ago.)

ALL THIS may reaffirm the saying that “nothing changes as much as the past”. Or, in the words of Goethe: “What you call the spirit of the times is nothing but the spirit of the lords in which the times are reflected.”

Zionism was a great spiritual revolution. It took an ancient ethnic-religious Diaspora and re-shaped it into a modern European-style nation. To effect this, it had first of all to re-shape history.

It could base itself on the works of a new generation of Jewish historians, led by Heinrich Graetz, who painted a new picture of the Jewish past influenced by the German nationalist historians of their time. Graetz himself died a few years before the First Zionist Congress, but his impact was and remains immense.

While the Germans resurrected Hermann the Cherusker and built a huge statue of him on the site of his great victory over the Romans in the Teutoburger forest, shortly before the Jewish Great Revolt, the early Zionists resurrected the Jewish heroes, ignoring the disasters they caused. Many European peoples, large and small, did the same. It was the Zeitgeist.

Three generations of Israeli children were brought up from kindergarten on these myths. They are almost completely cut off from world history. They learn that the Greeks were the people whose yoke was thrown off by the Maccabees, but learn next to nothing about Greek philosophy, literature or history. It creates a very narrow, egocentric state of mind, good for soldiers, but not so good for people who need to make peace.

These children learn nothing at all about the history of the Arabs, Islam and the Koran. Islam, for them is a primitive, murderous religion, bent on killing Jews.

The exception is the autonomous Orthodox school system which teaches nothing much except the Talmud, and is therefore immune to the cult of heroes, but also to world history (except the pogroms, of course).

The great political change we need must be accompanied by a profound change of our historical outlook.

The heroes of antiquity are perhaps due for another revision of their status.

The post Israel, The Maccabees And My Glorious Brothers – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Report Shows Police Body-Cameras Can Prevent Unacceptable Use-Of-Force

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Researchers from the University of Cambridge’s Institute of Criminology (IoC) have published the first full scientific study of the landmark crime experiment they conducted on policing with body-worn-cameras in Rialto, California in 2012 — the results of which have been cited by police departments around the world as justification for rolling out this technology.

The experiment showed that evidence capture is just one output of body-worn video, and the technology is perhaps most effective at actually preventing escalation during police-public interactions: whether that’s abusive behavior towards police or unnecessary use-of-force by police.

The researchers say the knowledge that events are being recorded creates “self-awareness” in all participants during police interactions. This is the critical component that turns body-worn video into a ‘preventative treatment': causing individuals to modify their behavior in response to an awareness of ‘third-party’ surveillance by cameras acting as a proxy for legal courts — as well as courts of public opinion — should unacceptable behavior take place.

During the 12-month Rialto experiment, use-of-force by officers wearing cameras fell by 59% and reports against officers dropped by 87% against the previous year’s figures.

However, the research team caution that the Rialto experiment is only the first step on a long road of evidence-gathering, and that more needs to be known about the impact of body-worn cameras in policing before departments are “steamrolled” into adopting the technology — with vital questions remaining about how normalizing the provision of digital video as evidence will affect prosecution expectations, as well as the storage technology and policies that will be required for the enormous amount of data captured.

President Obama recently promised to spend $75m of federal funds on body-worn-video to try and stem the hemorrhaging legitimacy of US police forces among communities across the United States after the killing of several unarmed black men by police caused nationwide anguish, igniting waves of protest.

But some in the US question the merit of camera technology given that the officer responsible for killing Eric Garner — a 43-year-old black man suffocated during arrest for selling untaxed cigarettes — was acquitted by a grand jury despite the fact that a bystander filmed the altercation on a mobile phone, with footage showing an illegal ‘chokehold’ administered on Garner who repeatedly states: “I can’t breathe”. (A medical examiner ruled the death a homicide).

For the Cambridge researchers, the Rialto results show that body-worn-cameras can mitigate the need for such evidence by preventing excessive use-of-force in the first place. Data from the Rialto experiment shows police officers are deterred from unacceptable uses-of-force — indeed, from using force in general — by the awareness that an interaction is being filmed; but this ‘deterrence’ relies on cognition of surveillance.

While the evidence provided by the video of Garner’s death would suggest a heinous miscarriage of justice, say researchers, the filming itself by a bystander would not generate the self-awareness and consequent behavior modification during the incident as observed during Rialto’s institutionalized camera use.

“The ‘preventative treatment’ of body-worn-video is the combination of the camera plus both the warning and cognition of the fact that the encounter is being filmed. In the tragic case of Eric Garner, police weren’t aware of the camera and didn’t have to tell the suspect that he, and therefore they, were being filmed,” said Dr Barak Ariel, from the Cambridge’s IoC, who conducted the crime experiment with Cambridge colleague Dr Alex Sutherland and Rialto police chief Tony Farrar.

“With institutionalized body-worn-camera use, an officer is obliged to issue a warning from the start that an encounter is being filmed, impacting the psyche of all involved by conveying a straightforward, pragmatic message: we are all being watched, videotaped and expected to follow the rules,” he said.

“Police subcultures of illegitimate force responses are likely to be affected by the cameras, because misconduct cannot go undetected — an external set of behavioral norms is being applied and enforced through the cameras. Police-public encounters become more transparent and the curtain of silence that protects misconduct can more easily be unveiled, which makes misconduct less likely.” In Rialto, police use-of-force was 2.5 times higher before the cameras were introduced.

The idea behind body-worn-video, in which small high-definition cameras are strapped to a police officers’ torso or hat, is that every step of every police-public interaction — from the mundane to those involving deadly force — gets recorded to capture the closest approximation of actual events for evidence purposes, with only case-relevant data being stored.

In Rialto, an experimental model was defined in which all police shifts over the course of a year were randomly assigned to be either experimental (with camera) or control (without camera), encompassing over 50,000 hours of police-public interactions.

The dramatic reduction in both use-of-force incidents and complaints against the police during the experiment led to Rialto PD implementing an initial three-year plan for body-worn cameras. When the police force released the results, they were held up by police departments, media and governments in various nations as the rationale for camera technology to be integrated into policing.

Ariel and colleagues are currently replicating the Rialto experiment with over 30 forces across the world, from the West Yorkshire force and Northern Ireland’s PSNI in the UK to forces in the United States and Uruguay, and aim to announce new findings at the IoC’s Conference for Evidence-Based Policing in July 2015. Early signs match the Rialto success, showing that body-worn-cameras do appear to have significant positive impact on interactions between officers and civilians.

However, the researchers caution that more research is required, and urge police forces considering implementing body-worn-cameras to contact them for guidance on setting up similar experiments. “Rialto is but one experiment; before this policy is considered more widely, police forces, governments and researchers should invest further time and effort in replicating these findings,” said Dr Sutherland.

Body-worn cameras appear to be highly cost-effective: analysis from Rialto showed every dollar spent on the technology saved about four dollars on complaints litigations. However, with technology becoming ever cheaper, the sheer levels of data storage has the potential to become crippling.

“The velocity and volume of data accumulating in police departments — even if only a fraction of recorded events turn into ‘downloadable’ recordings for evidentiary purposes — will exponentially grow over time,” said Ariel. “User licenses, storage space, ‘security costs’, maintenance and system upgrades can potentially translate into billions of dollars worldwide.”

And, if body-worn cameras become the norm, what might the cost be when video evidence isn’t available? “Historically, courtroom testimonies of response officers have carried tremendous weight, but prevalence of video might lead to reluctance to prosecute when there is no evidence from body-worn-cameras to corroborate the testimony of an officer, or even a victim,” said Ariel.

“Body-worn-video has the potential to improve police legitimacy and enhance democracy, not least by calming situations on the front line of policing to prevent the pain and damage caused by unnecessary escalations of volatile situations. But there are substantial effects of body-worn-video that can potentially offset the benefits which future research needs to explore.”

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What US Should Learn From Russia’s Collapse – OpEd

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By Miriam Pemberton*

After months of whispered warnings, Russia’s economic troubles made global headlines when its currency collapsed halfway through December.

Amid the tumbling price of oil, the ruble has fallen to record lows, bringing the country to its most serious economic crisis since the late 1990s.

Topping most lists of reasons for the collapse is Russia’s failure to diversify its economy. At least some of the flaws in its strategy of putting all those eggs in that one oil-and-gas basket are now in full view.

Once upon a time, Russia did actually try some diversification — back before the oil and gas “solution” came to seem like such a good idea.

It was during those tumultuous years when history was pushing the Soviet Union into its grave. Central planners began scrambling to convert portions of the vast state enterprise of military production — the enterprise that had so bankrupted the empire — to produce the consumer goods that Soviet citizens had long gone without.

One day the managers of a Soviet tank plant, for example, received a directive to convert their production lines to produce shoes. The timetable was: do it today. They didn’t succeed.

Economic development experts agree that the time to diversify is not after an economic shock, but before it. Scrambling is no way to manage a transition to new economic activity. Since the bloodless end to the Cold War was foreseen by almost nobody, significant planning for an economic transition in advance wasn’t really in the cards.

But now, in the United States at least, it is. Currently the country is in the first stage of a modest military downsizing. We’re about a third of the way through the ten-year framework of defense cuts mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011.

Assuming Congress doesn’t scale back this plan or even dismantle it altogether, the resulting downsizing will still be the shallowest in U.S. history.

It’s a downsizing of the post-9/11 surge, during which Pentagon spending nearly doubled. So the cuts will still leave a U.S. military budget higher, adjusting for inflation, than it was during nearly every year of the Cold War — back when we had an actual adversary that was trying to match us dollar for military dollar.

Now, no such adversary exists. Thinking of China? Not even close: The United States spends about six times as much on its military as Beijing.

Even so, the U.S. defense industry’s modest contraction is being felt in communities across the country. By the end of the ten-year cuts, many more communities will be affected.

This is the time for those communities that are dependent on Pentagon contracts to work on strategies to reduce this vulnerability. To get ahead of the curve.

There is actually Pentagon money available for this purpose. Its Office of Economic Adjustment exists to give planning grants and technical assistance to communities recognizing the need to diversify.

As we in the United States struggle to understand what’s going on in Russia and how to respond to it, at least one thing is clear: Moscow’s failure to move beyond economic structures dominated first by military production, and now by fossil fuels, can serve as a cautionary tale and call to action.

Diversified economies are stronger. They take time and planning. Wait to diversify until the bottom falls out of your existing economic base, and your chances for a smooth transition decline precipitously.

Turning an economy based on making tanks into one that makes shoes can’t be done in a day.

*Miriam Pemberton directs the Peace Economy Transitions Project at the Institute for Policy Studies. This piece was cross-posted from Foreign Policy In Focus.

The post What US Should Learn From Russia’s Collapse – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Armenia: Out Of The Game – OpEd

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By Fuad Huseinzadeh

In the recent years there have emerged three very promising platforms of trilateral cooperation in the Black Sea-Caspian Sea region that consist in the following partnerships: Azerbaijan-Turkey-Georgia, Azerbaijan-Turkey-Iran and Azerbaijan-Turkey-Turkmenistan.

For Azerbaijan, developing relations with foreign partners at bilateral and trilateral levels coincides with Baku’s official posture and its foreign policy strategy of non-alignment to any particular bloc. It was not by any coincidence that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, speaking at an official reception to mark the Republic Day on May 28, noted the great importance of all these formats of trilateral interactions: “These formats have a very great significance for regional security and cooperation and safeguarding our political and economic interests. We shall, of course, continue these tripartite meetings in the future, which have already become regular” the head of state commented.

In this regard it is notable the latest trilateral meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia – Elmar Mammadyarov, Mevlut Cavusoglu and Tamar Beruchashvili – which took place in the Turkish city of Kars. The Kars Declaration was the crown of the meeting, which was the fourth one held in this format. In the declaration, the foreign ministers said that the three countries had the same views regarding principles of their cooperation and the future of the region.

According to the document, the foreign ministers stressed the importance of trilateral cooperation in the region in accordance with the documents adopted earlier – the Trabzon declaration of June 8, 2012, the Batumi joint communique of March 28, 2013 and the Ganja statement of February 19, 2014.

The ministers pointed out the importance of implementing joint projects in energy and transportation, in particular the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project and the TANAP gas project, stressed the importance of the Trilateral Sectorial Cooperation Action Plan for 2013-15 as an effective means of political dialogue, and stated the need to continue meetings in this format and to expand trilateral cooperation in other areas, including international organizations.

Along with this, the political component of this trio seems no less significant, given the geopolitical situation in neighboring countries.

The developments in Ukraine or, to be precise, the ambiguous interpretations by some countries of the territorial integrity of this country, have clearly left an imprint on the final document adopted as a result of the meeting in Kars. “Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia have reaffirmed their firm support for one another’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and in this regard they have once again called for a speedy settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict in Azerbaijan and the conflict in Georgia’s Abkhazia and Tskhinval (South Ossetia) regions in accordance with fundamental principles and norms of international law, in particular on the basis of respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of internationally recognized borders of states,” the declaration stresses.

At their final news conference, the foreign ministers stated in unison that they were confident that the transport and energy projects Baku-Tbilisi-Kars, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, and Southern Gas Corridor will give an impetus to the implementation of new economic projects in Europe and Asia. However, regional security gained a greater emphasis once again. Elmar Mammadyarov said that Armenia’s aggressive policy against Azerbaijan threatens peace and development in the region. It was noted that this policy by Armenia is contrary to international legal norms. Noting that all conflicts in the world are a crime against humanity, Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkey will continue with its efforts to establish peace between countries and peoples.

Stressing the great importance of the three parties’ participation in international organizations and regional integration projects, Minister Tamar Beruchashvili said that the trilateral relationship will continue to meet the interests of our countries and peoples.

However, subsequent statements by the foreign ministers are noteworthy. Tamar Beruchashvili said that every country can take part in regional projects if it recognizes, first of all, the territorial integrity of a neighboring state and renounces all acts of violence. In turn, the Turkish minister was more specific in identifying the listeners of those statements. Cavusoglu said that as long as Armenian armed forces do not leave Azerbaijan’s land, that country will remain out of regional projects. “We support the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Georgia. We hope that Armenia would respect the borders of neighboring states and becomes a nation like one of ours. In that case, the missing link will be where it belongs,” Turkish media quoted Cavusoglu as saying.

In the meantime, “the missing link”, as the saying goes, does not care a straw. Just like previously, Yerevan continues to be concerned not about real things, the socio-economic situation in the country that seems to be worsening further and, as a consequence, mass migration, but the same mythical benchmarks as before – international recognition of the 1915 “genocide” and “re-creation of the Great Armenia”. Armenia, the indefatigable neighbor of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia not only rejects the calls for good neighborly relations in return to non-aggression but also continues to lay territorial claims on them and tries to impose on them something they did not do.

There is only one thing that this policy promises Armenia – an increasingly deeper immersion into crisis and isolation in the region. The geopolitical state of affairs in the region, which has until recently suited Armenia, is going to change, and not in favor of Armenia.

Azerbaijan is increasingly stepping up its cooperation with Turkey. Last week, the head of the public and political department within the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration, Ali Hasanov, said that Baku should create a single political block with Ankara. He said Turkey is now one of the world’s 20 largest economies, and Azerbaijan is also steadily moving towards high economic indicators.

But while for Armenia the strengthening of allied relations between its two sworn enemies is not a big surprise, the increasingly worsening relationship between Russia and the West, and Iran’s rapprochement with Azerbaijan are fraught for Armenia including the loss of its most important allies in the region. The recent visit by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to Baku confirmed the determination of the sides to eliminate former problems and to clarify everything, and the Russian president’s visit to Turkey and agreements reached during the visit to strengthen bilateral relations against the backdrop of the confrontation between Moscow and the West have even allowed some observers to predict the creation of a new geopolitical axis – Azerbaijan-Turkey-Russia.

“The Russia-Turkish agreements may seriously change the geopolitical architecture, primarily in the South Caucasus. In this regard, a new line of cooperation between Turkey-Azerbaijan-Russia – is possible, which in the long term may be expanded to include Iran, especially given Moscow’s attempts to increase its presence in India,” stated for R+ magazine, Nadana Friedrichson, a political analyst with EurAsEC Institute.

Thus, while Armenia is a hostage to important processes running around it but without any of its involvement, Azerbaijan and also Turkey and Georgia are not only depending on a geopolitical agenda but are also actively shaping it.

Kars is actually a very symbolic place for the history of the relationship between Turkey and the South Caucasus countries. We should recall that the Treaty of Kars on friendship between the Azerbaijani, Armenian and Georgian SSRs on one side and Turkey on the other was signed in this city in 1921. The document extended to the trans-Caucasus soviet republics the main provisions of the Treaty of Moscow. The Treaty of Moscow provided for establishment of trade relations and regulation of financial and economic issues. The Treaty of Kars added several provisions to the Moscow Treaty – on facilitation of border crossing by residents of the border zone and on giving them the right to use pastures located on the other side of the border. The Treaty of Kars effectively helped remove friction between Turkey and the trans-Caucasus soviet republics. However, the present-day Republic of Armenia does not recognize the treaty because it assigned to Turkey the cities of Kars and Ardahan, which Armenians covet, as well as the Mount Agridag which they call Ararat.

History, as we know, does not repeat itself. And almost a century after the treaty was signed, the region’s future is being decided without Armenia’s involvement.

The post Armenia: Out Of The Game – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Somalia: UN Condemns Attack On African Union Base

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The UN has condemned an attack on the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which resulted in the death of a number of AMISOM soldiers and civilian contractors.

In a statement issued by his spokesperson, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon strongly condemned the attack which took place yesterday on the AMISOM base camp, located in Mogadishu’s international airport.

“The Secretary-General conveys his sincere condolences to the families and friends of those who have lost their lives, and wishes a swift recovery for the injured,” today’s statement said.

The AMISOM base camp inside Mogadishu Airport was infiltrated by Al-Shabaab militants dressed in Somali army uniforms, the UN Assistance Mission (UNSOM) in the country has confirmed. During the gun fight, three AMISOM soldiers and two civilian contractors were killed.

Commending AMISOM for its quick response to the attack, the Secretary-General expressed solidarity with the African Union Mission and with UN personnel working for peace in Somalia, reaffirming the United Nation’s “resolve to support the Government and people of Somalia in their continuing journey toward peace and stability.”

Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia (SRSG), Nicholas Kay, who heads the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), confirmed in a statement that all UN staff are safe and sound. The airport also hosts the UN Headquarters for Somalia.

In an interview today with UN Radio, Aleem Siddique, a spokesperson for UNSOM, described how a group of Islamic gunmen had attacked the base. “The terrorists, some of whom were dressed in Somalia National Army uniforms, breached the base camp around lunchtime yesterday and attempted to gain access to critical infrastructure, during which five of them were killed and three were captured,” Mr. Siddique said.

“This attack is a reminder of the important work that we’re doing here, and that we will not be deterred by this attack. Our commitment to the Somali people and to the Federal Government of Somalia remains strong. There’s a lot of important work for us to do here,” he added.

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Israeli Diplomats To Learn Persian

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Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs plans to give Persian lessons to its diplomats in 2015. The Israeli news channel i24news, which airs its programs in Arabic, English and French, announced the news on December 26, adding that halting Iran’s nuclear program through diplomatic channels and teaching Persian to its diplomats are among the foreign ministry’s plans for 2015.

Iran’s foreign ministry said earlier this week that a comprehensive deal with the world powers over the nuclear disputes is within reach.

In November, the negotiation period was extended to July 1, 2015.

Benjamin Netanyahu has said that any deal must guarantee that Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb is completely nullified. Iran has maintained all along that it is not interested in making nuclear bombs and its nuclear program is completely peaceful.

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Asymmetry Is Strategy, Strategy Is Asymmetry – Analysis

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By Lukas Milevski*

Much of the strategic studies literature of the past two decades identifies profound novelty in the conduct and challenges of modern war, novelty that ultimately calls into question the nature and even existence of war. War has allegedly now been transformed from a regular, conventional, purportedly symmetric exercise into an irregular, unconventional, asymmetric event, which must be understood anew.

Of all the new descriptors for war, “asymmetric” is among the broadest. It has even been suggested that asymmetry does not bear definition: “to define the term defies its very meaning, purpose, and significance.”1 Some, undeterred by such extreme pronouncements, have attempted at least to categorize various existing and potential concepts of asymmetry. Thus, Jan Angstrom has identified four different prisms through which asymmetry may be interpreted: “power distribution, organisational status of the actor, method of warfare, and norms.”2 Yet despite claims of newness, it has also been observed that asymmetry has infused nearly every, if not every, war in recorded history. (Possibly only the hoplite phalanxes of ancient Greece could be considered properly symmetrical in nearly all respects, for geography, demographics, and so forth make all polities fundamentally asymmetrical to some degree.) Misunderstanding asymmetry poses significant dangers: “our misuse of the terms asymmetry and asymmetric distorts those vital processes and leads us to make major strategic blunders. For example, by focusing on threats rather than enemy strategies we fail to understand their strategic nature, goals, and overall concepts of operations.”3

The question thus arises: how may one fruitfully discuss asymmetry as a separate phenomenon? Perhaps the time has come to abandon the endeavor as unhelpful and rather suggest that asymmetry in war, and even asymmetric strategy, are redundancies. Asymmetry is strategy, and strategy is asymmetry. This article argues the point in three parts. First, it suggests that observations of a novel change are overexaggerated. Second, it maintains that no matter the form war may take, the function of strategy is eternal. Third, it proposes that contemporary asymmetric conflicts are all comprehensible through the lens of strategy.

Form over Substance

Theorists of contemporary conflict, whether describing asymmetric or unconventional wars, war among the people, or other iterations of modern armed conflict, usually posit significant change in the character, if not actual nature, of war. Many of them accurately identify and analyze the characteristics of modern interventions. In perceiving significant differences between modern war and wars past, however, they caricature historical conflict.

Thus, Rupert Smith argues that “war as cognitively known to most non-combatants, war as battle in a field between men and machinery, war as a massive deciding event in a dispute in international affairs: such war no longer exists.”4 Martin van Creveld propounds the notion that “the demise of conventional war will cause strategy in its traditional, Clausewitzian sense to disappear.”5 Fourth-generation warfare theorists such as T.X. Hammes identify generations of warfare with particular styles of conducting war; third-generation warfare is, for example, maneuver warfare, and fourth-generation warfare “uses all available networks—political, economic, social, and military—to convince the enemy’s political decision makers that their strategic goals are either unachievable or too costly for the perceived benefit. It is an evolved form of insurgency.”6

Yet their theories on the changes in war depend upon caricaturing what came before. They have succeeded somewhat in part because many centers of strategic education similarly caricature historical war. These caricatures rely on a Eurocentric perspective of strategic history. Smith’s war as a battle in a field between men and machinery and Hammes’s third-generation warfare as maneuver warfare, for example, both rely on the World Wars, especially World War II. These wars were fought among European or Western polities, all of which have similar strategic cultures. Yet modern interventions primarily take place between Western powers and polities elsewhere in the world, with significant differences in strategic culture. Theorists of change in war are comparing apples with oranges and perceiving change based on such flawed comparisons, which serve only to churn various fashions in strategic thought.

To analyze interventions, comparisons to the Third Afghan War of 1919 or the Rif War of 1919–1926 would much more accurately demonstrate how much war has actually changed. Similarly, conventional war must be compared to conventional war. Notably, Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia did not trigger a Georgian insurgency against the Russians, or even against the Abkhazians or South Ossetians. The war remained conventional throughout. The Iraq War of 2003 did transform into an insurgency, but not immediately. The period of a few months between the end of conventional operations and the serious beginning of the insurgency was terribly squandered by the United States, which visibly failed to begin righting the country. Although it would be incorrect to say that this great strategic and political failure caused the insurgency, it certainly exacerbated it.

Hew Strachan has suggested that “the real problem may well be that our policy has failed to recognise war’s true nature, and so has mistaken changing characteristics for something more fundamental than they actually are.”7 This mischaracterization is frequently manifested in the belief, as apparent before Iraq in 2003 and during some of the advocacy for intervention in Syria in 2013, that war is not adversarial, that enemies do not reciprocally interact with, and against, each other. The character of any war is not unilaterally set by any one implicated polity, but by the reciprocal hostility of all those involved. Thus, in not accounting for the enemy’s own initiative against us, the Western powers are blindsided by actions that are then interpreted as integral to the structure of contemporary war rather than as the consequence of something inherent in war, which is more fundamental and eternal.

Asymmetry and Strategy

That which is eternal is strategy, the purposeful threat or use of violence to achieve desired ends. Strategy has no permanent form, although it always retains its enduring substance and function. Strategy has always been practiced, even though before the word’s rediscovery in the 1770s, strategies explicitly labeled as such may not have been expressly planned or implemented.8 The core task of strategy may be identified as Everett Dolman does: “strategy, in its simplest form, is a plan for attaining continuing advantage.”9 Dolman rightly observes that the strategist’s task is usually aided more by advantage than disadvantage. “Advantage,” like strategy, is not defined by a particular form. Advantage may take the form of materiel, political will, a superior grasp of how to translate forces deployed into aims achieved, or so on. Understanding war and all the influences on it is necessarily multidisciplinary; therefore, asymmetry may manifest itself in a similarly wide range.

Strategy may be thus cast in a more absolute manner than merely the achievement of continuing advantage. Rather, strategy may be interpreted as the generation and exploitation of asymmetry for the purposes of the war. Roger Barnett complains that:

asymmetries arise if opponents enjoy greater freedom of action, or if they have weapons or techniques available to them that one does not. Perpetrators seek to void the strengths of their adversaries and to be unpredictable. They endeavor to take advantage of an ability to follow certain courses of action or to employ methods that can be neither anticipated nor countered effectively.10

Yet this is the very essence of strategy. Strategy is an adversarial act; the enemy also has a will, a capability, and a vote in the outcome. This reciprocal nature of strategy is a primary source of strategy’s nonlinearity, for defeat may beget renewed defiance and alternative attempts to achieve one’s goals, rather than the desired submission. Thus, Edward Luttwak, for instance, identifies the very pinnacle of strategic performance as “the suspension, if only brief, if only partial, of the entire predicament of strategy.”11 The predicament of strategy is the enemy. The pinnacle, therefore, is the removal of the enemy’s ability, however temporarily, to influence outcomes. Suffering from a position of weakness in an asymmetric relationship restricts one’s abilities to influence outcomes based on that relationship. To generate asymmetry effectively is to be, although not necessarily the only way to be, a skilled strategist.

The generation of asymmetry is the basis of much, if not most, strategic theory, particularly power-specific theories such as those pertaining to seapower or airpower. Command of the sea or of the air cannot mean anything other than the generation of a major operational asymmetry in either of those warfighting domains relative to the enemy. Similarly, the very idea of massing and applying one’s forces against the decisive point, a theme in both Antoine-Henri Jomini’s and Carl von Clausewitz’s works, is to generate asymmetry in a particular location, to achieve the desired wider effects. The debates about the revolution in military affairs and transformation are also ultimately about generating significant asymmetry, albeit in the form of a particular silver bullet. Cold War nuclear strategy was similarly meant to establish asymmetries of commitment, even when theorists might not be able to make operational sense of asymmetries of capability, particularly in the theories of Thomas Schelling. The strategic theories of Basil Liddell Hart were so steeped in the generation of asymmetry that it apparently affected his understanding of the moral component of strategy. He focused relentlessly on the indirect approach to create situations in which the enemy would be utterly helpless, therefore hopeless, and so would surrender without undue bloodshed, thereby removing killing from the concept of morality in strategy. Instead, “strategy is the very opposite of morality, as it is largely concerned with the art of deception,” in reality not because killing had no place in morality, but because killing had no place in his idea of good strategy.12

Asymmetry is thus clearly compatible with conventional warfare, simply because it is good strategy. During World War II, the conventional war par excellence, the Allies ultimately established major asymmetries in military-industrial production and logistics, on the sea, and in the air over all the Axis countries. World War I was a bloody stalemate on the Western Front for so long in large part because until 1918 neither side was able to generate the asymmetries required to break it. The belligerents who generated the most important asymmetries ultimately won. Not all asymmetries are equal; some may be more immediate than others, some may be ultimately more damaging to one’s ability to achieve desired goals than others, and so on. Effective asymmetry, like effective strategy, is context-sensitive.

Asymmetry is strategy, strategy is asymmetry. Conrad Crane of the U.S. Army War College is reputed to have suggested that “there are two types of warfare: asymmetric and stupid.”13 Generating effective asymmetry is good strategy. To condemn rhetorically our opponents for generating asymmetry reveals our conditioning born of understanding recent history through the prism of wishful thinking, of expecting one’s enemies to be poor strategists such as those faced in 1990–1991, 2001, and 2003. Wishful thinking, operationalized as unrealistically optimistic assumptions, does not usually lead to strategic success, as our experience of the variably labeled “war on terror” or “Long War” clearly indicates.

One might counter that conventional asymmetries on land, sea, and air are far more easily understood than unconventional asymmetries such as guerrilla warfare. This may indeed be the case, but so what? One may understand a threat and still be incapable of countering it. German General Fridolin von Senger und Etterlin, who had participated in the Italian campaign of 1943–1945, once likened operating under Allied air supremacy to playing chess against an opponent who could play three pieces each turn to his one. No amount of understanding of the threat can help alleviate a situation if that understanding cannot be turned into operational plans and successful outcomes. This is just as true of conventional asymmetries as of unconventional ones. In fact, conventional asymmetries are usually the more dangerous of the two for their ultimate political effects are usually greater, as the experience of warlords from Darius III to Napoleon to Adolf Hitler may attest. Each lost his empire to enemies who were ultimately more capable of generating effective asymmetry. Relatively few unconventional asymmetries have had the historical effect equivalent to losing an empire. One of the few pertinent, albeit inexact, examples is the American Revolutionary War, but even that war was “hybrid” rather than purely unconventional.14

Strategy in Contemporary War

Asymmetry today is most commonly associated with insurgency and irregular foes. Contemporary theories on strategies for counterinsurgency also implicitly emphasize the generation of effective asymmetry against the so-called asymmetric enemy. Unlike the generation of conventional asymmetries, many of which tend to be domain-oriented, contemporary counterinsurgency theory emphasizes asymmetry from the perspective of the population’s support, through the provision of security and other services, including effective governance. David Galula is frequently identified as the progenitor of this theory. It is nevertheless significant that his proposed strategic blueprint for counterinsurgency only begins with the destruction or expulsion of insurgents as an organized body and ends, after the organization of local communities into effective and self-sustaining political entities, with the destruction of the last of the insurgents.15

Force does not lack utility against a foe that is generating unconventional asymmetry. Indeed, the very form of that asymmetry reveals a significant concern about one’s own conventional military superiority over the insurgent. Unconventional asymmetry is guerrilla warfare, arising from military weakness and infused with concern for the survival of the insurgent force. Without that force, the insurgency is likely to fail. Galula noted that “in any situation, whatever the cause, there will be an active minority for the cause, a neutral majority, and an active minority against the cause.”16 A neutral majority will acquiesce to whichever party appears most likely to succeed. One of the most publicly visible features of such a measurement is the apparent effectiveness of the respective armed forces. The truism that the counterinsurgent loses if he does not win, but the insurgent wins if he does not lose, is indicative of this. Once the counterinsurgent, superior in strength, fails to win and so withdraws from the conflict, the only remaining viable power in the country will be the insurgent force. This truism is, of course, true only in the context of intervention because the counterinsurgent ultimately must leave; it is not an iron law of insurgency as such, as the example of Sri Lanka may attest.

This observation is not new to contemporary war. C.E. Callwell, one of the major luminaries of historical British strategic thought on small wars, offered an explanation at the end of the 19th century: “It is a singular feature of small wars that from the point of view of strategy the regular forces are upon the whole at a distinct disadvantage as compared to their antagonists.” In battle, however, regular troops have the tactical advantage: “Since tactics favour the regular troops while strategy favours the enemy, the object to be sought for clearly is to fight, not to manoeuvre, to meet the hostile forces in open battle, not to compel them to give way by having recourse to strategy.”17 The imbalance of military power between intervener and insurgent was, and remains, the basis for the guerrilla’s choice of strategy.

It is noteworthy in this context that, of the four great theorists of insurgent warfare, T.E. Lawrence, Mao Zedong, Vo Nguyen Giap, and Ernesto “Che” Guevara, only Lawrence did not theorize the eventual transition from guerrilla to relatively, if not absolutely, conventional warfare for the final campaigns definitively to seize power from the government forces. Lawrence, of course, fought as part of a larger conventional operation commanded by General Edmund Allenby and so had no need to turn his fighters into a conventional force. This is not to argue that members of the Taliban are running around the Hindu Kush with Mao’s little red book in their pockets, but rather that these authors identified the limits of guerrilla warfare. Thus, not even insurgency may violate the fundamental truth which J.C. Wylie observed: “the ultimate determinant in war is the man on the scene with the gun. This man is the final power in war. He is control. He determines who wins.”18

The enemy relies upon unconventional asymmetry if he believes himself unable to succeed without it. The Taliban in Helmand Province only turned back to tried-and-tested guerrilla tactics after suffering disastrous casualties in futile frontal assaults on British bases. This adaptation coincided with the loss of widespread local support, as “the cost of aligning themselves with the Taliban turned out to be very high for many communities in terms of destruction and loss of life,” as well as with consequent Taliban attempts to regain some local legitimacy and support.19 The generation of asymmetry through guerrilla tactics has both advantages and disadvantages, which must be examined with respect to the function of strategy, that is, the conversion of violence into desired political effect for both the insurgent and the counterinsurgent.

The basis of strategy is war, the purpose of which “is some measure of control over the enemy.” Control is a rarely defined term whose limits are quite broad, being “neither so extreme as to amount to extermination . . . nor . . . so tenuous as to foster the continued behavior of the enemy as a hazard to the victory.”20 The pattern of events in war is driven by the reciprocal interaction of adversaries, “a contest for freedom of action.”21 Since control pertains to freedom of action, one might identify three different categories of control. The weakest form of control is merely the denial of control, or preventing the enemy from unduly restricting one’s own freedom of action. Once a belligerent is relatively strong enough, he may attempt to take control and threaten actively to limit his opponent’s freedom of action. The final type of control is its exercise after having taken it, to prosecute the war to a successful conclusion. Much of strategic theory assumes that a belligerent without freedom of action or the ability to pursue his political goals will ultimately abandon his endeavor.

Unconventional asymmetry is capable only of denying control to the superior enemy. Despite being the weakest form of control, it remains potent. A strategy based upon the accumulated effect of minor actions and continued elusiveness to deny control of the operational pattern of the war presents significant difficulties for the opposing side. Presenting no single set of targets and acting against and among civilians across geographies larger than their opponents may completely secure provide the counterinsurgent with a wide array of potential choices, whose strategic worth may be estimated but hardly known. Thus, Harry Summers caustically noted that during the Vietnam War, the United States identified up to 22 different wartime objectives.22 This plethora of choice encourages unproductive or even counterproductive actions and contradicting policy goals on the part of the conventionally superior force. For instance, in Afghanistan, U.S. policies simultaneously require the local warlords to be liquidated for purposes of state-building and to be preserved to fight the Taliban.23 Unconventional asymmetry targets the stronger foe’s strategy rather than the enemy himself. The counterinsurgent, if unable to bring force or other tools effectively to bear to weaken the insurgency, merely marks time with blood. Time is a precious commodity in strategy and must be used wisely, but the substantial intellectual challenge facing the counterinsurgent places significant obstacles on the path of so doing.

Despite its deleterious effects on the stronger opponent’s strategic performance, unconventional asymmetry is a serious strategic gamble. Although it denies control to the enemy, the insurgents themselves also do not gain control over the pattern of the war. Both sides tend to have the maximum freedom of action possible in an otherwise reciprocally adversarial context. The Viet Cong might skulk into Saigon to plant explosives, but the Marines could hold Khe Sanh, within spitting distance of the Ho Chi Minh Trail, which was absolutely vital to the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese army in South Vietnam. In such a situation, barring any dramatic changes, rarely is there a clear indication of who holds the advantage until the conflict itself actually ends.

Strategy poses a difficult challenge due to the nonlinearities involved, many of which stem from the active presence of an independently acting adversary. Yet on the sliding scale of difficulty, the generation of asymmetry through guerrilla warfare may almost be a leap of faith. Although the skilled guerrilla retains initiative in being able to choose his own battlefields, the power of decision is preserved for his foe. The denier of control has no direct influence on the perception of his efforts in the opposing headquarters; he cannot impose a victory, but can only wait until his opponent acquiesces to defeat. Although today insurgents are able to fight figuratively in the media as well as literally on the ground, the pressure of public opinion seems to count for less in wartime than in peacetime because of the other pressures war generates: “The declaration of war, and more immediately the use of violence, alters everything. From that point on, the demands of war tend to shape policy, more than the direction of policy shapes war.”24

The generation of asymmetry through use of guerrilla tactics may be a strategy that Western powers find difficult to defeat, despite more than a decade of constant experience with attempting to combat it. It is nevertheless fundamentally the same phenomenon as generating asymmetry through commanding the sea or the air and may be understood with the same basic toolbox of strategic concepts. British mastery of the seas largely bewildered French attempts to defeat it for over a century and resulted in the French development of a number of methods by which to strike at British command of the sea without directly challenging it, including the guerre de course and the later jeune école, which was obsessed with the potential of torpedo boats. Today the roles are reversed, for the weaker belligerent has bewildered the Western powers and left them scrambling to determine how to combat the threat.

Many time-tested methods of defeating guerrillas directly are unacceptable to liberal powers today. As David Kilcullen puts it, “Indeed, any given state’s approach to counterinsurgency depends on the nature of the state, and the concept of ‘counterinsurgency’ can mean entirely different things depending on the character of the government involved.”25 These methods may also be inappropriate for the specific conditions in which Western powers find themselves. Treating counterinsurgency as social work is more amenable to Western sensitivities than treating it as war. Although counterinsurgency definitely is the latter, it may well be both. Violence remains the base coinage of strategy, but this does not rule out the utility of counterfeits or other instruments of political power. One must remember that these tools are merely used as replacements for violence in specific circumstances where they may effectively take the place of force. War is war, but war is also politics. The other instruments of political power do not lose relevance once violence begins, but their utility is tempered by the introduction of force.

Moreover, it may be possible that today, compared to all prior historical experience, it is easiest for liberal powers to track and target insurgents. This is due to a number of factors, including the widespread use of new communications and other technologies, and new techniques to use this technology.26 Taking the fight directly to the insurgents has become a plausible option for liberal democracies in a way that would not have previously been allowed, with massive cordons and conscription of locals to serve in temporary militias. With an increasing ability to strike desirable insurgent targets directly and relatively precisely comes an opportunity, in theory but also necessarily tempered by the actual circumstances of practice, to render relatively ineffective the generation of asymmetry through guerrilla tactics. The particular character of specific asymmetries does not change the fact that they all may be comprehended through the lens of strategy.

Conclusion

Rupert Smith is skeptical of the idea of asymmetric warfare. He rightly indicates that “the practice of war, indeed its ‘art,’ is to achieve an asymmetry over the opponent. Labeling wars as asymmetric is to me something of a euphemism to avoid acknowledging that my opponent is not playing to my strengths and I am not winning.”27 Smith’s euphemism implies that the opponent is practicing strategy better than the Western powers are; since the practice of strategy determines how any particular polity engages in warfare, the implications of poor strategic practice are grave.

Asymmetry as now commonly used—to denote a supposedly particular new type of war—is not a useful term and, for some, implies strategic ethnocentric hubris that “assumes there is only one truth and model for warfare, and that we alone have it.”28 In fact, today and historically, most strategies seek to generate asymmetry as a way of minimizing the enemy’s vote on the character and outcome of the war. Lawrence Freedman once defined strategy as “the art of creating power.”29 Given that power is a necessarily relational quality—for one cannot have power in the absence of an entity on or against which it may be exercised—the generation of asymmetry is the restriction and minimization of the enemy’s effective power vis-à-vis oneself and the multiplication and maximization of one’s own against that adversary.

Labeling only a certain segment of strategies as asymmetric risks obscuring the enormous real asymmetric advantages liberal democracies have over those insurgents who purportedly employ the asymmetric strategies. This practice threatens conceptually to detach asymmetric warfare from war and strategy by treating it as something else, and in doing so it contributes toward preventing the Western powers from fully and effectively employing force against weaker challengers, as the popularity of asymmetry in strategic literature is a self-reinforcing symptom of our diluted grasp on strategy. Asymmetry will ever remain strategy, and strategy will ever remain asymmetry.

About the author:
*Lukas Milevski is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Graduate Institute of Political and International Studies at the University of Reading, United Kingdom.

Source:
This article was originally published in the Joint Force Quarterly 75, which is published by the National Defense University.

Notes:

  1. Jesse G. Chace, “Defining Asymmetric Warfare: A Losing Proposition,” Joint Force Quarterly 61 (2nd Quarter 2011), 124.
  2. Jan Angstrom, “Evaluating Rivalling Interpretations of Asymmetric War and Warfare,” in Conceptualising Modern War, ed. Karl Erik Haug and Ole Jørgen Maaø, 31 (London: Hurst & Company, 2011).
  3. Stephen J. Blank, Rethinking Asymmetric Threats (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2003), v.
  4. Rupert Smith, The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World (London: Penguin Books 2006), 1.
  5. Martin van Creveld, The Transformation of War (New York: The Free Press, 1991).
  6. T.X. Hammes, The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century (St. Paul: Zenith Press 2004), 2, 3.
  7. Hew Strachan, “Introductory Essay: The Changing Character of War,” in Conceptualising Modern War, 25.
  8. Beatrice Heuser, “Strategy Before the Word: Ancient Wisdom for the Modern World,” RUSI Journal 155, no. 1 (February/March 2010), 36–42.
  9. Everett C. Dolman, Pure Strategy: Power and Principle in the Space and Information Age (New York: Frank Cass, 2005), 6.
  10. Roger W. Barnett, Asymmetrical Warfare: Today’s Challenge to U.S. Military Power (Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2003), 15.
  11. Edward N. Luttwak, Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace (Cambridge: Belknap Press, 2001), 4.
  12. Basil Liddell Hart, Strategy (New York: Meridian, 1991), 220.
  13. Quotation from Emile Simpson, War from the Ground Up: Twenty-First-Century Combat as Politics (London: Hurst & Company, 2012), 140.
  14. Williamson Murray, “The American Revolution: Hybrid War in America’s Past,” in Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present, ed. Williamson Murray and Peter R. Mansoor, 72–103 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012).
  15. David Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice (Westport, CT: Praeger Security International, 2006), 55.
  16. Ibid., 53.
  17. C.E. Callwell, Small Wars: Their Principles and Practice (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 1996), 85, 91.
  18. J.C. Wylie, Military Strategy: A General Theory of Power Control (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1989), 72.
  19. Theo Farrell and Antonio Giustozzi, “The Taliban at War: Inside the Helmand Insurgency, 2004–2012,” International Affairs 89, no. 4 (2013), 854.
  20. Wylie, 66, 70.
  21. André Beaufre, An Introduction to Strategy, trans. R.H. Barry (London: Faber and Faber, 1965), 110.
  22. Harry G. Summers, Jr., On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War (New York: Presidio Press, 1995), 98.
  23. Mark Peceny and Yury Bosin, “Winning with Warlords in Afghanistan,” Small Wars & Insurgencies 22, no. 4 (September 2011), 603–618.
  24. Hew Strachan, “Strategy in the Twenty-First Century,” in The Changing Character of War, ed. Hew Strachan and Sibylle Scheipers, 508 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011).
  25. David J. Kilcullen, Counterinsurgency (London: Hurst & Company, 2010), 155.
  26. Michael T. Flynn, Rich Juergens, and Thomas L. Cantrell, “Employing ISR: SOF Best Practices,” Joint Force Quarterly 50 (3rd Quarter 2008), 56–61; Mark Urban, Task Force Black: The Explosive True Story of the SAS and the Secret War in Iraq (London: Little, Brown, 2010).
  27. Smith, 4.
  28. Blank, 15–16.
  29. Lawrence Freedman, “Strategic Studies and the Problem of Power,” in War, Strategy and International Politics: Essays in Honour of Sir Michael Howard, ed. Lawrence Freedman, Paul Hayes, and Robert O’Neill (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992).

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Gulf-Iranian Proxy War Spills Onto Soccer Pitch – Analysis

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A Saudi-led proxy war against Iran playing out in Syria and Iraq has expanded onto the soccer pitch with a last minute decision by the Palestinian national team to cancel a friendly against Iran. The cancellation officially on technical grounds came barely two weeks before Iran meets two of its Gulf nemeses, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, in politically loaded matches during the Asian Cup in Australia. It also highlights internal divisions among the Palestinians as Hamas, the Islamist group in control of Gaza, seeks to patch up its differences with Iran.

Iranian suspicion that the Palestinian cancellation four days before the friendly was scheduled to take place is rooted in close ties between the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank headed by President Mahmoud Abbas and conservative Gulf states as well as Mr. Abbas’s deteriorating relations with Hamas. Iranian officials and soccer analysts doubt the cancellation had anything to do with soccer.

The officials and analysts noted that the Palestinian squad had recently trained and played matches in the UAE and Saudi Arabia whose relations with Iran have long been strained. The two Gulf states alongside Bahrain believe that Iran has sought to fuel discontent in their countries and is responsible for the popular uprising in Bahrain that was brutally suppressed in 2011 as well as unrest in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich, predominantly Shiite Muslim Eastern Province.

Saudi Arabia whose puritan Wahhabi interpretation of Islam is inherently anti-Shiite has poured billions of dollars into becoming a dominant force in Muslim communities across the globe since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. Saudi responses to the popular revolts that have swept the Arab world in recent years and sparked a brutal civil war in Syria as well as to the crisis in Iraq and the rise of jihadist groups like the Islamic State, which controls a swath of Iraq and Syria, have been characterized by their anti-Shiite, anti-Iranian overtones. To be sure, the Islamic State is no less sectarian with its murderous campaigns against Shiites and other religious minorities.

The Saudi responses reflect the fact that the kingdom’s ruling family cloaks itself in the mantle of Islam to justify its absolute power that is becoming increasingly harsh in its crackdown on domestic sent. A Saudi court in recent days referred to a court that deals with terrorism cases two women arrested a month ago for violating a ban on women driving. Saudi rulers see any alternative form of Islamic government, particularly ones that involve popular legitimization through elections like Iran or the rise in Egypt of the Muslim Brotherhood with the election in 2012 of Mohammed Morsi, as a direct threat. Mr. Morsi was toppled a year later in a Saudi and UAE-backed military coup.

In a letter to his Iranian counterpart, Palestine Football Association (PFA) secretary general Abd Al-Majid Hujjah said his squad had just returned from a visit to China and was preparing for next month’s Asian Cup in Australia and therefore was unable to travel to Iran. Mr. Hujjah stressed Palestine’s brotherly relations with Iran and expressed hope that the countries’ teams would have a future opportunity to meet.

The PFA, locked into a campaign to get Israel suspended by world soccer body FIFA for alleged obstruction of the development of Palestinian football that is part of a broader effort to squeeze Israel within international organizations, needs Gulf support. Palestinian peace negotiator Saeb Erekat was quoted by Israeli media as saying that the United Nations Security Council could vote within days on a resolution that would call on Israel to withdraw from occupied Palestinian territory by 2017. After years of failed mediation efforts, FIFA this month warned that Israel could be sanctioned if it failed to ensure the free movement of Palestinian players.

The Palestinian cancellation of the Iranian match came not only at a sensitive moment in Palestinian diplomacy but also at a time that efforts to bridge the divide between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas are faltering further. Hamas charged that the authority’s security forces had this week arrested 14 of its operatives on the West Bank.

Squeezed by pressure from both Israel and Egypt in the wake of this summer’s destructive war with Israel, Hamas sent a delegation to Tehran earlier this month to repair relations ruptured by the Sunni Muslim Islamist militia’s refusal to back the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. A renewal of ties would not only complicate Hamas’ relations with the authority but would also serve Iran’s argument that it is the Gulf states rather than the Islamic Republic that is fuelling sectarianism in the Middle East.

PFA President Jibril Rajoub, who a year ago became the first representative of Mr. Abbas to visit Tehran in years, has urged Hamas to break its ties to the Muslim Brotherhood – a demand that is in line with Saudi Arabia and the UAE who have outlawed the group as a terrorist organization. Mr. Rajoub’s visit focused on efforts to lift a Syrian siege of the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus and win Iranian support for Mr. Abbas’ UN efforts.

A deputy secretary of the central committee of Mr. Abbas’ Al Fatah movement and former head of Palestinian security, Mr. Rajoub needs to reassure Gulf states who worry about the fact that he has close personal ties to Hamas leaders should he want to succeed Mr. Abbas as head of the Palestinian Authority. Mr. Abbas has suggested on a number of occasions that he wishes to retire.

The Authority and Mr. Rajoub are walking a tightrope. Cancellation of the match against Iran will earn them brownie points in the Gulf but not contribute to relations with Iran, which has suggested that it would abide by any decision the Palestinians take with regard to Israel.

“The match against Palestine was agreed upon on October 3. The Palestinians had 80 days but said they were not coming just four days before the match. This is neither legal nor professional… In the worst of cases, this constitutes regional collusion with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia,” charged Mehdi Rostampour, a well-known Iranian soccer analyst, in a posting on his Facebook page.

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India And ESCAP Join Forces To Strengthen Early Warning Systems For Natural Disasters

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The Government of India and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) announced Friday a major new contribution of US$ 1 million to the ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness in Indian Ocean and Southeast Asian Countries.

The Asia-Pacific region remains highly vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis, tropical storms and storm surges. The contribution from the Government of India will boost ESCAP’s efforts to strengthen early warning systems through regional and South-South cooperation, to ensure that vulnerable communities receive the timely warning information that is required to save lives and livelihoods in disasters.

“ESCAP is extremely pleased to partner with the Government of India to further strengthen regional early warning systems and build resilience to natural disasters,” said Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of ESCAP. “The Trust Fund has a strong record in promoting innovative solutions based on a regional approach, and the contribution from the Government of India will give these efforts a major boost.”

The contribution to the Trust Fund is part of a series of steps taken by the Government of India to support regional early warning systems. India is a Regional Service Provider for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS), which became operational in 2011, and also an active member of the ESCAP/World Meteorological Organization Panel on Tropical Cyclones.

H.E. Mrs. Sushma Swaraj, Minister of External Affairs and Overseas Indian Affairs, India said, “India joins the international community in its efforts to prepare for any such natural calamity in the future by establishing effective early warning systems.”

H.E. Mr. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, Ambassador of India to the Kingdom of Thailand and Permanent Representative to ESCAP added, “The Indian Ocean Tsunami was devastating in its impact on coastal communities in several countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Despite suffering large casualties, India was one of the first countries to extend assistance in Search and Rescue and rehabilitation of the victims of the Tsunami in countries in its neighbourhood. Since then, India has made great strides to strengthen its multi-hazard early warning system and has extended this facility to cover the region. On the tenth anniversary of the Indian Ocean Tsunami, the Government of India has announced the contribution of USD $1 million to the Tsunami Trust Fund of UNESCAP to further strengthen the process of building resilience to natural disasters in the Asia-Pacific region.”

Created in 2005 following the devastation caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the Trust Fund supports activities that build resilience through strengthened early warning systems for coastal hazards. It has made important contributions to the establishment of effective regional mechanisms such as the IOTWS and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) as well as to the strengthening of warning systems at the national and local levels.

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Looting The Greatest Threat To Our Cultural Heritage In Syria – OpEd

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Can the worst patrimonial disaster since World War II be stopped?

No matter how badly this observer periodically assesses the threat to our cultural heritage as he travels across Syria the reality always turns out to be worse.

As we enter 2015 much of Syria has been reduced to apocalyptic landscapes. During the 45 months of the Syrian crisis war damage inflicted from all sides has created massive damage to our shared global cultural heritage that has been in the custody of the Syrian people for more than ten millennia.

Few would dispute the fact that the level of destruction of Syria’s archaeological sites has become catastrophic. Unauthorized excavations, plunder and trafficking in stolen cultural artifacts in Syria is a serious and escalating problem and threatens the cultural heritage of us all. Due to illicit excavations, many objects have already been lost to science and society.

Today, the single greatest threat to our cultural heritage in Syria is looting. It is rampant and being done from many sources. One virulent source is Da’ish (IS) and like-minded jihadists who desecrate and destroy irreplaceable artifacts and lay siege to and loot more than 2000 archeological sites under its control in Syria and double that number in Iraq.

Jihadists in Syria are estimated to have reaped more than $ 20 million from looted artifacts during 2014 and they rationalize their frenzy of wonton obliteration by sighting religious obligations. Also increasingly active in looting Syria’s cultural heritage are local residents who, with no jobs, income or tangible economic prospects, are increasingly turning to age-old plunder taking advantage of a growing cash market to feed their families.

The trade in looted Syrian cultural artifacts has become the third largest market in illegal goods worldwide. Current laws at the national and international level are woefully inadequate to prevent the illicit traffic in looted antiquities and even less, to effectuate the return of stolen antiquities to their countries of origin. In the 1960s, according to experts, it was a buyers’ market as there were few national collectors interested in Islamic art or other antiquities in Syria. But that that has now dramatically changed since the Gulf countries, Qatar and Abu Dhabi started collecting, and it is also now a seller’s market.

Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and a crossroads for trade and culture for countless centuries, has been particularly hard hit. Its vast labyrinthine souk was gutted by fire in 2012. The Citadel, a castle that dates back to 3000 BC, has also been damaged, while the minaret of the Umayyad Mosque was toppled by fighting in 2013. But hundreds of other sites have also been looted and shops selling Syrian antiquities dot the Turkey side of the border just 40 miles north of Aleppo.

“Syria is the worst-case scenario. It is the worst situation I’ve ever seen. Satellite imagery shows massive, mechanical looting of sites,” says France Desmarais of the International Council of Museums. Palmyra, another ancient settlement founded around 2000 BC, has also been partially stripped by illegal excavations and plunder. What is true with respect to looting in Syria obtains as well in Iraq and Libya.

Last month Syrian authorities confiscated three busts from Palmyra (Tadmor) dating from 200 AD that had been hacked off a tomb.  But looting and illegal trade in antiquities has been escalating over the past nine months with large numbers of antiquities of dubious provenance being found on the rapidly growing illicit antiquities market. A majority of looted artifacts from Syria are being held in antiquity investment storage pits and other stash-sites for future sale at higher prices once the buyers’ market glut of cultural heritage artifacts dissipates. Experts are certain about one thing. The objects will reemerge at some point in the future — as has always happened in the past.

One of the main problems with combating looting is that many looted artifacts end up in someone’s house – as a status symbol. Eyewitness accounts report that reliefs and mosaics looted from archaeological sites in Syria are being built into walls above fireplaces in homes in the region and no doubt also in the west.  Those to whom these cultural heritage artifacts belong will never see them again given that the main market for looted antiquities has moved from Europe and the United States to Asia, particularly China, where a ravenous appetite for archaeological artifacts continues to spread.

Looting also threatens to deprive Syria of one of its best opportunities for a post-conflict economic boom based on tourism, which, until the conflict started 18 months ago, contributed 12% of the national income. Partly for this reason it is not surprising that looting carries a fifteen-year prison sentence in Syria. With no end in sight for a regional conflict that has claimed the lives of more than 200,000 the prospect for ending looting of Syria’s cultural heritage must be viewed as pretty bleak. Once a site is looted it is largely destroyed as an archaeological site. The knowledge sought and uncovered that comes with how, with what, and where an object was found is lost, probably forever.

As documented by a just released assessment of Syria’s Tentative World Heritage sites using high-resolution satellite imagery, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Geospatial Technologies and Human Rights Project documents the growing problem in remarkable detail  of Dura Europos, Ebla, Hama’s Waterwheels, Mari, Raqqa, and Ugarit. The soon to be released second part of the assessment will present the projects finding and analysis regarding Apamea, the Island of Arwad, Maaloula, Qasr al-Hayr ach-Charqi, Sites of the Euphrates Valley, and Tartus (Tripoli).

American experts have claimed this past week that there has been a 150% percent increase in American imports of looted Syrian cultural property between 2011 and 2013. Five months ago the FBI completed an “Intelligence Threat Study” sent to the US Congress which is considering new legislation to sanction dealing in looted antiquities in Syria.

Listed are 12 areas in the illicit antiquities trade for which the FBI claims there are “intelligence gaps.”

Seven of them are:

  • What is the overall value of the illicit antiquities trade in the US?
  • Where are the largest global networks in this trade?
  • How many and which US-based art dealers are trading in stolen or looted goods from Syria?
  • To what extent are US or foreign government workers involved in the illegal trade?
  • Are the networks specializing in the illicit antiquities trade also involved in other criminal activities?
  • How are the proceeds from illegal trade in the United States then transferred back to the networks in the countries of origin?
  • Who are the most active carriers and which countries do they come from? Are the carriers also involved in the drug trade, human trafficking or any other smuggling?

The FBI report states that American authorities have returned more than 7,000 archeological objects to 26 different countries since 2008. The State Department concedes that this is only a fraction of the illegal objects currently being held in the US. The FBI report estimates the illegal trade to be worth $2 billion a year, but others say the actual figures are much higher and more comparable to trading in drugs or weapons.

An investigative report by the German broadcaster NDR documented evidence that Syrian antiquities looted by terrorist groups were being sold through German auction houses. The report revealed how Syrian conflict antiquities were smuggled as handicrafts, laundered with obscuring or outright false documentation, and then sold on the open market. It also exposed the transfer of antiquities to Gulf States, where they were falsely “re-documented” for resale in Western Markets.

There are a few positive signs that looting Syria’s cultural heritage can be curtailed.

According to Gaetano Palumbo, the World Monuments Fund program director for North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, there is general agreement among many of the top auction houses to be more cautious about what they auction. At the most recent UNESCO meeting regarding Syria, a representative from Christie’s was present and claimed that they are scrutinizing artifacts carefully  and not putting anything on sale that is not clearly provenanced. Just last year Christie’s withdrew six works of art in a sale in London that had been stolen. “We work closely in partnership with UNESCO, Interpol, the US Department of Homeland Security and Scotland Yard’s art and antiques unit. And we have strict procedures to ensure we only offer works of art which are legal to sell,” Christie’s said in a statement to The National newspaper.  Yet, according to Desmarais, these promising signs are offset by a whole range of smaller actors are involved in trading is Syria’s looted cultural heritage and these include some of  the smaller auction houses, crooked dealers and the underground internet, known as the darknet.

It is also known that Lebanese and Turkish authorities have intercepted many objects at the border in recent months. Turkish officials have reportedly filled several warehouses with seized antiquities but they refuse to return them to Syria until there is a new regime. A number of objects have also been discovered at open markets in Turkey and Lebanon. Many of the looted objects end up in the hands of traders in Gaziantep Urfa and Mardin,Turkey. Others are being sold to dealers in the Bekaa Valley, Tripoli, Ouzai and Khalde in Lebanon for the European and American markets.

The International Council of Museums’ (ICOM) Emergency Red Lists which document cultural objects at risk of looting in Syria, include clay tablets that preserve some of the earliest writing in the world, intricate stone carvings and coins, in addition to the dozens of other items. They are expanding their lists for public distribution to governments and law enforcement agencies. Dubious purchases had been made for years by Western museums, but the practice is now widely considered to be immoral.

What must be done immediately?

Global awareness of the serous assault on the cultural heritage of all in Syria is growing but much more needs to be done according to France Desmarais of the International Council of Museums (ICOM). “As long as it will be chic and posh for you to have an archaeological piece in your living room that guests can admire, we’ll be talking about this. We need to get this message across that it’s a crime. Collecting looted antiquities is a white-collar crime. People have died for this. People buying looted artifacts from Syria are feeding insurgencies, the purchase of arms, financing of foreign extremists and mercenaries and other types of criminality.”

There are two main agreements that deal with looted and trafficked antiquities. One is the 1970 UNESCO convention, which from an international law perspective is weak and exacts at most a slap on the wrist for violators.  A stronger convention is the 1995 UNIDROIT convention. It potentially could enforce more robust international law.  Yet, for this very reason far fewer countries have ratified this convention fearing it might target their citizens, auction houses and museums. Moreover, quite frequently the law is different in the source country from which artifacts are looted than in the country to which it’s smuggled or in which it is sold. A defense lawyers dream come true should she or he be asked to defend an accused dealer of looted artifacts.

Amidst the maelstrom of violence in this region, the 2003 UN a resolution calling on all 197 UN members to stop the trade in Iraqi antiquities without verified provenance also applies to Syria. And the European Union has recently banned the import of antiquities from Syria, but inexplicably this prohibition has not been followed by the International Council of Museums (ICOM). Interpol has drawn up ‘red lists’ of material known to be stolen from Syria and UNESCO has held workshops on how to combat the illicit trafficking of cultural heritage property from Syria and elsewhere. The workshops include national authorities, Interpol, local community organizations, scholars, artists and local citizens and auger well for enhancing global involvement to combat looting.

A petition signed by many archaeologists and accompanied by 17,000 signatures was sent to the UN in September and a ban is expected in the near future.  In addition, a new law in Germany could point the way forward. This will require a certified export license for an antiquity in order to secure an import license. The dealers will inevitably argue that it presumes guilt, but it doesn’t, any more than hygiene certificates for food do. And it won’t be perfect – there will still be forged certificates, but it’ll make a big difference according to Sam Hardy a London based antiquities researcher and blogger.

All countries could help target looting of our shared cultural heritage in Syria in a major way if they adopted the Germany’s law that will oblige dealers and collectors to present an official export license for any ancient artifact showing where the object originated, in order to receive an import license. The German government itself has been highly critical of its most recent legislation, passed in 2007. In a report issued to parliament, the government recently stated that amendments are “urgently needed.” The government claims that although it has since become “common practice for museum not to purchase cultural objects of indeterminate provenance,” the fact is that “illegally excavated or illicitly exported cultural treasures are still being bought and sold.” Dubious purchases had been made for years by Western museums, but the practice is now widely considered to be immoral. The German government is seeking to cut the supply of illicit antiquities to the market, and thereby cut the flow of money to looting and smuggling mafias and militants.

There is also an urgent need for international support to the institutions in the relevant countries through the provision of training and education programs and financial support. Work to control the border in neighboring countries to prevent the smuggling of cultural property. Provide technical and substantive support to the work of documentation of archaeological sites in the relevant countries.

It is nearly unanimously agreed at the United Nations that it must establish additional controls to prevent smuggling and illegal excavation and to identify and put into effect control mechanisms in each of the 197 UN member states so as to eliminate the trade in looted and smuggled artifacts. This can be achieved by encouraging the filling in of gaps in national laws in order to combat and close down channels of smuggling. Another pressing need is to increase the number of specialists who work in customs offices and at airports and seaports. Given the past decade of increased screenings of passengers and cargo searching for drugs, explosives, weapons, hazardous chemicals etc. adding looted antiquities to the list should not be all that problematical for national and international authorities.

There is also a great exigency for international support for countries through the provision of training and education programs and financial support. Specifically, working to control the borders in neighboring countries in order to prevent the smuggling of cultural property while at the same time providing technical and substantive support to the work of documentation of archaeological sites.

In addition there is an urgent need to establish controls to prevent smuggling and illegal excavation and to identify and put into effect control mechanisms in each of the 197 member states of the United Nations so as to eliminate the trade in of looted and smuggled artifacts by filling in gaps in national laws in order to combat and close down channels of smuggling. Another pressing need is for more training of specialists who work in customs offices and at airports and seaports. Given the past decade of increased screenings search for drugs, explosives, weapons, hazardous chemicals etc. adding looted antiquities to the list should not be problematical for national and international authorities.

As Dr. Maamound Abdulkarim, Syria’s Director General of Antiquities and Museums (DGAM) pointed our this month during a Conference on the subject in Berlin, the international community has yet to effectively join the fight against the looting of our shared cultural heritage in Syria.

Our global village needs to provide direct aid to the archaeological and cultural institutions of Syria which faces dire consequences from the looting of our shared cultural heritage.

The post Looting The Greatest Threat To Our Cultural Heritage In Syria – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Global Threat Forecast 2015 – Analysis

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The al Qaeda-centric threat landscape has been eclipsed by an Islamic State (IS) insurgency. Today, an al Qaeda-IS hybrid influences and shapes the global threat landscape of political violence. IS will expand its international footprint in 2015.

By Rohan Gunaratna*

The galaxy of threat groups inspired and instigated by al Qaeda present a growing challenge to global harmony. Despite the presence of the world’s finest standing armies in Afghanistan and Iraq, the insurgent, terrorist and extremist groups in the two most violent conflict zones survived. The unwillingness of Western and their Middle Eastern partners to deploy ground troops in Iraq, the pressure to pull out from Afghanistan, and the reluctance of more countries to join the fight perpetuate conflict. In a trajectory of growth, the ruthlessness and resilience of the violent actors threaten international security.

The international neglect of Iraq led to the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), an episode likely to repeat itself in Afghanistan in 2015-6. Although the international coalition formed in September 2004 in Iraq and Syria offer hope, a greater commitment of its constituents to fight on the ground is needed. Unless there is greater will on the part of the community of nations to fight violent actors and commitment of capabilities to counter their vicious ideologies, the global threat of violence and extremism will spread in 2015.

The context

Today, the most violent theatres of conflict are in the Middle East (Syria-Iraq, Yemen); Asia (Pakistan-Afghanistan), and Africa (Nigeria and Somalia). With less than 200 members, al Qaeda itself has become exceptionally weak but its associates and affiliates have become strong. The most violent threat groups are Islamic State (IS), Taliban, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Boko Haram and al Shabab. While these high profile groups will continue to pose a threat in 2015, several existing groups in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia are likely to grow stronger.

They include al Nusra also known as al Qaeda in Syria, Turkistan Islamic Party in Western China, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent. Although non-Muslim groups from the Philippines to India and Peru to Colombia present a security threat, the ethno-nationalist and left/right wing groups present a localised threat.

The epicentres of global terrorism today are in the Levant, where IS is the lead actor, and South Asia, where Taliban is. In Africa, a new epicentre is likely to develop unless stability is restored in Libya, Egypt, especially in the Sinai, northern Mali/Southern Algeria, Somalia and Nigeria. At present, the threat in Africa’s north is moving from Maghreb to the Sahel; in Africa’s east, al Shabab in Somalia is disintegrating; and in Africa’s west, Boko Haram in Nigeria is developing into a regional movement with cells in Niger, Chad and Cameroon.

Since June 2014, the spectacular military successes by the IS against the Iraqi and Syrian forces and continuing barbarism against Sunnis who resist them have shocked the world. The IS-generated fear psychosis paralysed Iraqi and Syrian forces from Mosul to Raqqa. While Iraqi and Syrian Sunni Muslims have suffered the most, the systematic killing, maiming and injury of Christians, Yazidis, Shia, Kurds and other faiths and communities by IS continues. The IS engages in the destruction of Islamic shrines and monuments, enslavement of women, beheading of regime elements and recruitment of children.

IS is creating an environment of fear, suspicion and prejudice between communities that historically coexisted. IS seeks to justify its actions through propaganda projecting itself as followers of Islam and enforcers of Sharia. IS activities find resonance among the radicalised, a narrow segment of Muslim communities vulnerable to recruitment.

Recent and likely developments

The 30,000 Shia and Sunni foreign fighters in the Syrian, Iraqi and Lebanon theatres not only threaten the Levant but their countries of origin. Just as the Afghan veterans formed the nuclei of the current wave of violence, the Iraqi, Syrian and Lebanese returnees possess the experience and expertise to create and resource threat groups. They travel home with motivation, skills and a network to spread their ideology and conduct attacks.

With a fledgling external wing, IS is likely to target countries participating in the international coalition. The inspired, instigated and directed attacks are likely to occur both in third countries and on the soil of participating countries. As evident in Belgium (May), Canada (October), and Australia (December) in 2014, IS is likely to inspire more attacks against government and civilian targets in 2015.

Among the other conflict arenas attracting foreign fighters are Yemen, Somalia, and tribal Pakistan. The most active Asian threat groups – the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban – threaten to recapture Afghanistan. After relocation to Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban in particular seek to attack Pakistan.

The two Taliban entities have already established a presence in southern and eastern Afghanistan. The attacks including the suicide attacks targeting Kabul, the capital, are likely to gather momentum. Pakistani Taliban in tribal Pakistan and Afghan Taliban in mainland and tribal Pakistan aim to create Taliban style Islamic states in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Although media attention is focused on Iraq and Syria, the developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan are threatening their neighbours. Threat groups from the Af-Pak theatre seek to infiltrate Central, South, Southeast and Northeast Asia. Like the Iraqisation of al Qaeda in Iraq produced Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), the Asianisation of al Qaeda has produced al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), threatening South Asia and Myanmar.

After a hiatus of a decade, al Qaeda returned as AQIS. While al Qaeda was predominantly Arab, AQIS is staffed by Pakistanis but includes Indian, Maldivian, Bangladeshi and Myanmar (Rohingya) Muslims. AQIS is seeking to build a network in South Asia and Arakan region of Myanmar. In Southeast Asia, where over 200 recruits travelled to Syria and Iraq, 16 terrorist and extremist groups have expressed support for IS. The foreign-fighter recruits include both Central Asians and Uighurs from Northeast Asia. Increasingly, they travel with their families.

Confronting IS

The strategy to dismantle IS should be multi-pronged, multi-agency, multi- national, and multi-jurisdictional. What is needed is a bottom-up strategy of attrition of fighters, destruction of their assets especially logistics and supplies, and simultaneously impeding their capacity to replenish human losses and material wastage.

In parallel with targeting the middle-level leadership, experts and membership, it is paramount to engage supporters and weaken the support base. In Iraq, for instance, political and economic initiatives to wean away Sunni support and sympathy is essential.

As a third of the IS fighters are foreign, governments worldwide should criminalise advocacy, support and participation in foreign conflicts. As a fourth of the fighters who travel are disillusioned with IS, security and intelligence services directly and indirectly should reach out to those with second thoughts. The key is for governments to work with community partners, religious institutions, educational institutions and the media to create an anti-IS environment.

* Rohan Gunaratna is Professor and Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He is also author of “Inside al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror,” Columbia University Press.

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Russia Bolstering Presence In Central Asia: Threats And Opportunities For Iran – Analysis

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By Hassan Beheshtipour*

the increased presence of Russia in Central Asia region can entail both opportunities and special threats for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

1. Political threats to Iran resulting from Russia’s presence in Central Asia

Russia has been habitually critical of the United States’ unilateral policies in the region. On the outward, Russia has been apparently following a multilateral policy at international level and has been encouraging the United States to follow suit by adopting similar policies. However, when it comes to Central Asia and Caucasus, Russia has been itself pursuing totally unilateral policies. Russia’s political behavior in this regard has been an obstacle to multilateral cooperation with such Asian countries as India, Iran and China. Moscow is actually willing to bolster its own influence in this region. Although Russia has close ties with a country like China, its major policy and measures taken by Moscow in the strategic regions of Central Asia and Caucasus have been largely unilateral.

As a result, Russia’s policy in Central Asia has been an impediment to creation of common opportunities for countries active there. On the contrary, Iran has been cooperating with Russia in the Middle East, including in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Therefore, it is quite natural for the Islamic Republic to expect Moscow to cooperate with Tehran in such important regions as Caucasus and Central Asia. Of course, due to Russia’s reluctance, this cooperation has not been realized so far.

2. Opportunities arising for national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a result of Russia’s presence in Central Asia

a. Opportunities related to energy economy

Russia can have effective cooperation with Iran in the area of production and export of oil and gas. Of course, both countries are among major producers and exporters of oil and gas and are, therefore, rivals in this field, but that rivalry can take a different turn toward effective cooperation.

b. Opportunity for cultural cooperation

On the outward, there are few, if any, cultural commonalities between the two countries of Iran and Russia. However, when it comes to cultural issues, Iran has deep roots in Central Asia region. Therefore, Russia can use cultural issues as a suitable ground in order to help Tehran and Moscow forge a new sort of cultural cooperation in the aforesaid region.

Although Russians have spared no effort in the past 70 years to promote Russian language and culture in that region, this issue cannot be considered an obstacle for Iran and Russia to engage in cultural cooperation with countries located in Central Asia and Caucasus. Such a cooperation will also pave the way for a joint fight against all kinds of extremism in those regions.

There are many fertile grounds for cooperation between Iran and Russia in Central Asia. However, the absence of a model for effective cooperation has caused some of the existing opportunities to be squandered. Under these conditions, Iran has found itself more at loss and the main reason for this should be found in the pursuit of unilateral policies by Russia in Central Asia and Caucasus.

3. Iran, Russia and fields for political and geopolitical cooperation

a. Political and security cooperation

Both Iran and Russia are in a good position to implement joint security plans for the establishment of security across the region. They can also join hands in fighting terrorism and drug trafficking through effective cooperation.

Of course, both countries have put frequent emphasis on the need for cooperation between Tehran and Moscow in the field of fighting terrorism and drug trafficking in all kinds of joint announcements and statements. In practice, however, there has been no practical example of cooperation to be worthy of mention.

b. The increasing power of China

The increasing power of China has raised concerns in Russia and also among Western countries, especially the United States. By expanding its cooperation with Iran and India, Russia would be able to create a new regional balance of powers in the face of China. Moscow can even redefine the mode of cooperation among Iran, China, India and Russia in the face of the US hegemony. In other words, Russians are in a position to turn all the existing threats into opportunities.

At present, Russia is worried about increasing power of China and although both countries are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, they cannot put a cap on their mutual concerns.

Under these conditions, Russia can forge an effective cooperation with Iran in geopolitical areas. Such a geopolitical cooperation will be beneficial to Central Asian countries as well. It will also allow Russia to boost its influence and power in rivalry with the West and China.

It is also noteworthy that Central Asia and Caucasus are specific regions which does not allow Russians to regulate their policies there in a totally unilateral manner and without any kind of coordination and cooperation with other regional countries. It is evident that the time for unilateralism is long past.

Therefore, it will be in Russia’s own benefit to change its attitude in the 21st century and move toward increased cooperation with Iran, India, China and Afghanistan. In fact, increased cooperation among Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan is by no means in conflict with cooperation with other countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. It can even lead to the emergence of a brilliant model of cooperation. Just in the same way that the establishment of the European Union was a good means of bringing member states closer together in various fields and has allowed them to define common interests and shape a great trade and economic union among themselves, it can be also done for this region. The only requisite is for regional countries to give up unilateral approaches and take a more overarching approach to issues of importance.

4. Large-scale areas of cooperation between Iran and Russia

a. Turkmenistan, Iran’s northern neighbor and a good pathway for expansion of regional cooperation

Turkmenistan’s Gazprom Company can engage in effective cooperation with the National Iranian Gas Company in this field. When it comes to existing potentials in the Caspian Sea region, the two countries can engage in multilateral cooperation in such fields as shipping. For example, facilities can be considered for Iranian passengers to travel to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia by sea. At present, ordinary passengers cannot take advantage of such facilities. In view of the high rate of travel of passenger and goods, if Russia cooperated with Iran in this regard, the two countries would have common economic interests in this field and the way would be paved for the establishment of a joint shipping service. Unfortunately, since Russia has not been so far willing to cooperate in this regard, there is no such service to be used by passengers.

b. Tajikistan, best option for expansion of relations

Tajikistan’s need to build more hydropower dams on its soil can be used as a good ground for cooperation between Iran and Russia. Uzbekistan has been always sensitive about construction of dams by Tajikistan and has lost no time to voice its protest to the latter country’s projects in this regard because construction of dams in Tajikistan will reduce water flow to its northern neighbor, Uzbekistan. However, it seems that if a joint gas supply project is defined between Russia and Iran, whose pipeline would pass through Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, such a project could greatly boost cooperation among these regional countries. Such a project can even provide a good ground for understanding between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in the fields of water and gas supply because Russia and Iran would be able to supply gas to Tajikistan while facilitating supply of water to Uzbekistan. Iranian and Russian specialists can also cooperate on this project. Russia, however, has so far refrained from allowing this to happen.

c. Kazakhstan and opportunities for cooperation

Kazakhstan has the longest border among other Central Asia countries along the shores of the Caspian Sea. Therefore, it has good potentials for running shipping lines in that sea and can be also used as a good route for the transfer of oil and gas reserves of the sea. Of course, there was some sort of energy swap in the region, but it came to a halt later due to international sanctions against Iran.

The two countries of Iran and Russia can cooperate in the field of transportation, both through the Central Asia and land transfer. At present, construction of a railroad connecting Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan seems to be a very good start. However, Russians have not been enthusiastic about this project because they think the project can be an obstacle to their efforts in this region and may finally reduce dependence of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on the Russians in the field of transportation. Some articles wrote by Russian analysts have clearly noted that construction of such a railroad will reduce dependence of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan on Russia. However, they ignore the fact that Russia can also take advantage of this railroad and the project can boost transportation and increase exchange of goods among regional countries, thus benefiting Russian companies as well.

*A researcher, documentary producer, and expert on nuclear issues, Hassan Beheshtipour received his BA in Trade Economics from Tehran University. His research topics span from US and Russian foreign policy to the Ukrainian Orange Revolution.

Source: Fars News Agency
http://www.farsnews.com/
Translated By: Iran Review.Org

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India: Held Back By Hindutva – Analysis

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By C. Raja Mohan*

In his frequent travels across the world over the last few months, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has continually affirmed that India can re-emerge as the “Vishwaguru”. Modi’s global dream for India, however, is at odds with the deeply divisive religious agenda and the anti-modernism that have been unleashed by the RSS and its affiliates.

That India, as one of the world’s oldest and continuing civilisations, may have much to teach the world is not a new proposition. Different schools of Indian nationalism, including those which focused on India’s past and others which understood modern India’s future potential, believed that an Indian leadership role on the world stage was inevitable. Even those who were deeply suspicious of nationalist passions, both religious and secular, were convinced that India’s spiritual civilisation had much relevance for the contemporary world.

India’s higher economic growth rates in the reform era and the steady expansion of its relative weight in the international system have lent new credibility to the notion of an Indian international leadership. The example of China has been difficult to miss. After three decades of rapid growth, China is now the second-largest economy in the world and its aggregate GDP will soon be larger than that of the United States. Beijing is also the world’s largest defence spender after America.

The dramatic expansion of China’s comprehensive national power has allowed Beijing to now begin reshaping the Asian and global orders. A similar prospect awaits India if it continues to modernise and grow its economy at a reasonable clip. Much of the international enthusiasm for Modi, like that for his predecessor, Manmohan Singh, in the middle of the last decade, was based precisely on that expectation.

Faster growth rates of the last decade triggered international calls on India to become a responsible global power and a “net security provider”. Yet Delhi has been hesitant to accept a leadership role. Many in Delhi interpreted these calls as a pressure point rather than the recognition of India’s expanding weight in the world. Modi, in contrast, is discarding this defensiveness and embracing the prospect of a leadership role. Whether Delhi actively pursues such a role or not, India’s democracy, which thrives amid extraordinary diversity, religious, ethnic and linguistic, is a source of quiet optimism in a world that is being torn apart by multiple tensions.

Modi’s hopes for India as “Vishwaguru” are inspired by Vivekananda. The swami spoke of the contributions that India’s rich vedantic heritage could make in addressing the spiritual challenges of the contemporary world. Modi, of course, is stretching the idea a bit when he speaks of how India’s democracy and demography can be deployed in the service of the world today.

Modi also believes the diaspora that has spread around the world and has impressive resources, intellectual and financial, can help realise India’s potential as “Vishwaguru”. He reminded his audiences in Sydney that Vivekananda had urged his countrymen to forget their gods and goddesses for 50 years and worship only “Mother India”. His suggestion that development might be more important than religion is obviously not shared by the extremist outfits of the Sangh Parivar, which have lost no time in pushing their polarising politics on the nation.

Modi is surely aware that the growing assertiveness of the Hindu right will complicate the development agenda that was at the heart of his successful election campaign. At equal risk is the BJP’s promise — “sab ka saath, sab ka vikas” — to put development for all above the sectarian Hindu agenda.

Given his own experience in Gujarat and the political consequences of the 2002 riots, Modi has every reason not to let religious controversies overwhelm his prime ministerial tenure. In his maiden Independence Day speech this August, Modi declared that casteism, communalism and regionalism were obstacles to development and called for a 10-year moratorium on divisive issues. The last few weeks have shown that the RSS and Hindu-right outfits are not ready to heed Modi’s appeals to avoid derailing his government’s development agenda.

Modi should also be aware that the new Hindutva agenda at home will also seriously complicate India’s external relations, a domain in which Modi has surprised everyone with his passion and effectiveness. It is easy to forget that domestic stability holds the key to a successful foreign policy. A nation that is at war with itself will inevitably be diminished on the world stage. When a nation turns faith into a contentious question, it invites intervention from religious extremists from around the world.

It will also draw into the debate secular forces around the world that want freedom of faith and a separation of religion and state in India. The new push for a Hindu rashtra, then, is bound to generate many costs for Indian diplomacy.

Just when Modi appears to have succeeded in reducing the fears of the neighbours and the world about India’s internal orientation under the BJP, the RSS and the Hindu right seem determined to revive them. Equally problematic for India is the resurgent anti-modernism of the Sangh Parivar. Its leaders, including the prime minister, have made extravagant claims, ranging from the proposition that astrology is superior to science to the suggestion that Vedic India conducted nuclear tests.

While asking his countrymen to take pride in their rich cultural inheritance and appreciate its relevance to the modern world, Vivekananda had also insisted that India must sit at the feet of the West to learn about improving the nation’s material condition. India, then, must strive to be a good teacher and a better student. It must invest in the serious study of its ancient heritage and master modern knowledge. But if Hindu extremism prevails, India will have little to give the world and be in no mood to learn. Unless he acts now to check these negative forces, Modi and the agenda for India could end up being a minor part of the vast collateral damage.

* (The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation and a Contributing Editor for The Indian Express)

Courtesy : The Indian Express, December 23, 2014

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Spain Welcomes Entry Into Force Of Conventional Arms Trade Treaty

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Spain has welcomed the entry into force, on 24 December, of the Conventional Arms Trade Treaty that will ban States from transferring conventional weapons to other countries if it is known they will be used to commit or facilitate the commission of crimes against humanity, war crimes of genocide.

Spain, which ratified the Treaty on 2 April, played a highly active role in the negotiations that led to its adoption. Furthermore, as a result of its commitment to this issue, Spain has already been provisionally applying certain articles of the treaty aimed at guaranteeing international humanitarian law and respect for human rights in the transfer of conventional weapons.

The entry into force of the treaty represents a fundamental step in the fight against the illegal trafficking of conventional weapons in defense of the interests of national security and the prevention of unlawful acts, including human rights violations.

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