The New Year pardon announced by Azerbaijan President Aliyev for several prisoners, including a number of journalists and opposition youth activists held in detention, is a welcome step, said a EU External Action spokesperson in a statement.

“At the same time a decision to close the Baku bureau of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty contravening Azerbaijan’s international commitments to protect media freedom has been taken,” the statement continued.

The spokesperson statement added that, “Restoring the international community’s faith in the commitment of Azerbaijan to the freedom of expression, a free and independent media, and to the rule of law will require consistent efforts of the authorities in Baku.”

The post EU Welcomes Azerbaijan Pardon Of Prisoners, Concerns Over RFE/RL Closure appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The United States has proposed exchanging Amir Hekmati, the former US marine currently jailed in Iran, for a number of Iranian prisoners being held in the U.S., Hekmati’s lawyer has told the media.

ISNA reports that according to Mahmoud Alizadeh Tabatabayi, the U.S. has sent word that it is willing to exchange Hekmati with Iranian detainees in the United States.

Hekmati was arrested on espionage charges in 2011 when he travelled to Iran. Hekmati’s family maintains that he was only visiting his grandmother and is not involved in spying. Iranian television has aired a program in which Hekmati confesses to spying charges.

Hekmati had been sentenced to death, but the appellate court reduced his sentence to 10 years in prison.

Alizadeh Tabatabayi says the names of the prisoners to be exchanged with Hekmati have been forwarded to the foreign ministry and must be discussed with the judiciary before a decision can be made in the matter.

The post US Calls For Prisoner Swap With Iran To Free Former Marine appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Pop star Justin Bieber has been named the least desirable neighbor of 2014 in a survey, and earned the most “worst neighbor” votes in the survey’s eight-year history.

On the upside, Americans would most like to be neighbors with comedian and late-night-show host Jimmy Fallon in 2015, according to the eighth annual Zillow Celebrity Neighbor Survey.

The annual Zillow survey asks US adults which celebrities they would most like to be their neighbor, and with whom they wouldn’t want to share a fence.

For the second year in a row, Fallon was the top choice for a celebrity neighbor, earning 10 percent of surveyed adults’ votes, down slightly from 11 percent last year. The comedian’s popularity was higher among voters with kids (14 percent) than those without (8 percent).

Country music couple, Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton were a close second place with 9 percent of the votes. The stars were more favored by female voters surveyed (12 percent) than males (6 percent).

On the downside,  pop star Justin Bieber topped the list of worst neighbors for the year, earning the highest percentage of votes in survey history. One in three voters (34 percent) found Bieber to be the most undesirable neighbor of 2014, an increase from 16 percent last year.

Last year’s worst neighbors, Kim Kardashian and Kanye West, came in second with 22 percent of the votes, down slightly from 25 percent last year. The newlyweds ranked higher on the list by large margins compared to competitors Miley Cyrus (10 percent), Donald Trump (5 percent) and Alec Baldwin (3 percent).

“From his frequent run-ins with the law to his over-the-top house parties, Justin Bieber has earned himself quite a bad-boy reputation that only continued to build in 2014,” said Amy Bohutinsky, Zillow chief marketing officer. “No one wants to live on the same street as someone accused of reckless driving or egging neighboring homes, which is likely why Bieber received the highest percentage of ‘worst’ votes in survey history. Jimmy Fallon, on the other hand, had an incredibly successful first year on ‘The Tonight Show,’ is well-liked by Americans and carries a positive, relatable vibe. Plus who wouldn’t want to live next to someone who makes you laugh?”

Thirty-six percent of surveyed adults said they would not want to live next to any of the celebrities listed in the poll.

The post Survey Names Justin Bieber As Worst Celebrity Neighbor In 2014 appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Law enforcement fatalities in the U.S. rose 24 percent in 2014, reversing what had been two years of dramatic declines in line of duty deaths, based on preliminary data compiled and released today by the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund (NLEOMF).

According to the NLEOMF report, 126 federal, state, local, tribal and territorial officers were killed in the line of duty this year, compared to 102 in 2013. The number of officers killed by firearms in 2014 (50) was 56 percent higher than the number killed by gunfire in 2013 (32). Ambush-style attacks, as evidenced earlier this month by the shooting deaths of New York City Police Officers Wenjian Liu and Rafael Ramos while sitting in their marked patrol car, were the number one cause of felonious officer deaths for the fifth year in a row. Fifteen officers nationwide were killed in ambush assaults in 2014, matching 2012 for the highest total since 1995.

Forty-nine officers were killed in traffic-related incidents this past year, which was an 11 percent increase from 2013. Twenty-seven officers died due to other causes in 2014, including 24 who suffered from job-related illnesses—such as heart attacks—while performing their duties.

In 2011, officer fatalities spiked to 171, which led to a number of new initiatives and policy changes aimed at promoting law enforcement safety. The result was a sharp decline in line-of-duty deaths to 123 in 2012 and 102 last year—the lowest fatality figure since 1944. Over the past decade the average annual number of officer deaths has been 151.

The deadliest year ever for law enforcement was 1930 when 300 law enforcement officers were killed in the line of duty. The deadliest single incident was the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, resulting in 72 officer deaths. There are more than 20,000 names of officers killed in the line of duty inscribed on the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial in Washington, DC, dating back to the first known death in 1791.

“We issue this report each year as a stark reminder that some 900,000 sworn law enforcement officers go out each and every day putting their lives on the line for our safety and protection,” explained NLEOMF Chairman and CEO Craig W. Floyd. “These brave men and women are willing to lay down their lives for us. The least we should do is honor and remember their service and sacrifice, support their families and do all that we can to make it safer for those who continue to serve.”

The post US Law Enforcement Fatalities Up 24 Percent In 2014 appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Jemal Oumar

Two years after the cities of northern Mali were freed from the control of terrorist groups, more than 100,000 refugees are still living outside the country.

Many of those now residing abroad are in Mauritania, Niger and Burkina Faso, the UN reported.

According to Touareg writer and journalist Intagrist El Ansari, these refugees are unable to return to their homes and property because of poor “security conditions”.

“Terrorist groups have carried out several murders, massacres, and kidnappings of citizens in that area, accusing them of spying for the Malian, Mauritanian, or French army or of collaborating with the international forces that are there to provide security,” he said.

Malian refugees in neighbouring countries pin high hopes on the outcome of the current Algeria-sponsored negotiations, El Ansari emphasised.

“When a final agreement is signed that will order the disarmament of the warring groups, provide adequate economic conditions to citizens, and promote integration, refugees will hurry to return to their homes and whatever remains of their property.”

“Conditions are in no way suitable for refugees to return to northern Mali,” agreed Mohamed “Momo” Ag Malha, the co-ordinator of Azawad refugees at the M’bera refugee camp in eastern Mauritania.

“On the political level, local groups are living an internal tension, which warns of possible internal fighting, on the economic level the situation is deteriorating, and on the security level, fears persist of Malian army revenge on the population,” Ag Malha told Magharebia.

The refugee co-ordinator also spoke of the fear of reprisal by terrorist groups against local residents.

“There are still terrorists there carrying out criminal acts against local Arab and Touareg residents whom they accuse of working with hostile parties. That scares the residents,” he said.

Conditions don’t exist for refugees to go home, confirmed Mohamed Ali Ag El Mubarak, the former administrative governor of the Malian village of Gundam and currently a resident of the M’bera camp.

“Fear rules our souls not only of the Malian army and the residents loyal to it but also of al-Qaeda,” he said.

Local clerics expressed similar concerns.

“There are still security worries,” said Daoud Ag Mohamed, the imam at the Balfrandi Mosque in Timbuktu. “We hope for further reassurance for all things to return to normal,” he said.

At refugee camps abroad, some of those displaced from northern Mali are beginning a new life.

Blogger and music arranger Mohamed Ag Ahmedu, for instance, decided to start a band together with fellow refugees. They have already performed several concerts in Nouakchott and Dakar.

“The terrorists turned the cities of northern Mali into a quicksand of killing and destruction,” he told Magharebia. “Young people find themselves faced with two options: either join the terror groups’ ranks or spy for them, or collaborate with the local authorities.”

And either choice puts them in danger, he said.

“Al-Qaeda has recently issued an Islamic ruling aimed at local residents that says that all young people working with relief organisations operating in northern Mali will be in danger of revenge, which has made their situation difficult,” Ag Ahmedu said.

“Al-Qaeda doesn’t give young people any alternative for living, naturally, and this fact doesn’t encourage one to stay,” he added.

The post Mali: Refugees In North Fear Reprisals appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Andy Dabilis

The Greek police are investigating whether criminal gangs are running guns from Albania through Greece to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria, while Cypriot authorities are trying to prevent would-be jihad fighters from going through that country to join the terrorists, officials said.

While authorities work to devise a strategy to deal with the threat, concerns have mounted that Greece and Cyprus have become key transit points for getting weapons and recruits to ISIL.

The probe began following the arrest of eight members of a suspected weapons racket near Durres on the Albanian coast, and reports in Albanian media indicate Greece is on the smuggling route for Syria-bound arms.

Albanian police raided a hideout in the town of Shijak that led to the arrest of the eight suspects, 18 to 44-years-old.

Police seized a large cache of weapons including six Kalashnikov assault rifles, a Skorpion submachine gun, six pistols, five hand grenades, two rifles and 12,000 rounds of ammunition.

“There is definitely arms contraband from the Balkans going to the Middle East and North Africa for jihad fighters amongst others. It is mostly done via commercial vessels belonging to fictional companies and various intermediaries,” Ioannis Michaletos, a terrorism expert for the Athens-based Institute for Security and Defence Analysis, told SETimes.

One alleged member of the racket, identified by the police as Clirim X, has been convicted in Greece for armed robbery. Police suspect him to be the group’s key member.

Experts said Greece has been stretched thin in its attempts to cover its borders and sea routes suspected of being channels for supplying arms and recruits to ISIL. The country is also dealing with waves of illegal immigrants, many of them refugees fleeing Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

There is a serious problem protecting the Greek sea and land borders from the flow of illegal immigrants because there is no substantial intelligence sharing between EU member states, said John Nomikos, an American-trained specialist in terrorism and director of the Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS) in Athens.

“To keep an illegal immigrant from turning to be a sleeping cell, obtain fake EU passport and travel (via the Schengen area) unobstructed to another EU country is a challenge for the Greek law enforcement agencies,” Nomikos told SETimes.

Nomikos also said Greek and Balkan police need to address transnational organised crime groups raising funds to support terrorist networks and ammunition transfer to ISIL.

“Greek law enforcement and the intelligence community need to be on alert and promote intelligence sharing with friendly neighbouring states such as Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania in order to confront radicalisation and extremism in their land,” he said.

Michaletos concurred.

“There needs to be a technological upgrade of the safety systems in the Greek entry points and more training of personnel so they can monitor these kinds of trafficking. Also international co-operation plays a big role and should be further enhanced.”

In Cyprus, officials have expressed concern that would-be jihadists are using the island to get to ISIL and join its cause.

Lebanese officials warned after talks with Cypriot European Parliament member Ioannis Kasoulides that the island could be used “as a European country for foreign fighters to move from Europe toward the Middle East,” but also vice versa.

Cyprus is located about 160 kilometres east of Syria.

A Cypriot security official said that Cyprus has stepped up screening efforts across the island’s dividing line to prevent Europeans from passing through en route to Syria.

There is reason for worry, said Stavros Karkaletsis, head of the Ηellenic Centre for European and International Analyses in Athens, who also chairs the Defence and Security Department for the People’s Alliance Party.

“We cannot prevent the jihadists from France and other countries, and it is easy to get through Cyprus. The British use their bases here to bomb ISIL and that makes Cyprus a target,” he told SETimes.

The post Greece, Cyprus Coordinate To Thwart ISIL Recruits, Gunrunners appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A Bangladesh war crimes tribunal sentenced an Islamist party leader to death on Tuesday, Dec 30 after convicting him of atrocities committed during a 1971 war of independence from Pakistan, Reuters reports.

A.T.M. Azharul Islam, 62, assistant secretary general of the Jamaat-e-Islami party, was found guilty of five out of six charges including the murder of hundreds of minority Hindus, rape, abduction and torture, prosecutors said.

As the verdict was delivered, Islam stood up in the dock and shouted that his conviction had been “dictated” by the government.

Defense lawyer Tajul Islam rejected the charges and said he would lodge an appeal.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2010 opened an inquiry into war crimes committed during the nine-month war.

The tribunals have angered Islamists who call them a politically motivated attempt by Hasina to persecute the leadership of Jamaat-e-Islami, a key part of the opposition coalition.

More than 200 people have been killed in violent protests against the tribunal and its decisions, most of them Islamist party activists and members of the security forces.

Jamaat called for nationwide strikes on Wednesday and Thursday to protest against the verdict.

Bangladesh became part of Pakistan at the end of British rule in 1947 but broke away in 1971 after a war between Bangladeshi nationalists, backed by India, and Pakistani forces.

About 3 million people were killed, according to official figures, and thousands of women were raped.

The tribunal has convicted 16 people, most of them Jamaat leaders, and sentenced 14 of them to death. One Islamist politician was executed in December 2013.

International human rights groups have said the tribunal falls short of international standards. The government dismissed that criticism.

Some factions in Bangladesh, including the Jamaat, opposed the break with Pakistan, but the party denies accusations that its leaders committed atrocities.

The post Bangladesh Tribunal Sentences Islamist Party Leader To Death For War Crimes appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Ömer Faruk Topal

Whether or not Iraq will maintain its territorial integrity is one of the issues that almost everyone studying Iraq analyzes. While debates on fragmentation focus mostly on Kurdish independence or Sunni insurgency, the position of the majority of the country, the Shiites, has often been overlooked.

This situation changed after autonomy demands for oil-rich southern province of Basra had become more apparent. Even some residents of the city flied an unauthorized Basra Region flag on which there were three vertical stripes coloured respectively as blue, white and green, an oil drop in the middle and two leaves of palm tree on the white stripe. This flag was unfurled at the Basra International Airport and hoisted by the Basra-based Al-Mina Football Club during their match. In this sense, federalism and autonomy are again put on the table as important matters of debate.

Autonomy and Federalism in Iraqi Constitution

After the toppling of Baath regime, new Iraq was designed as a decentralized federal state. Kurdistan region was officially recognized as a federal region and the door was left open for new regions established in accordance with their provisions. Article 119 states that one or more governorates shall have the right to organize into a region by a referendum. This referendum request can be submitted upon the request of one-third of the council members of each governorate intending to form a region or one-tenth of the voters in each of the governorates intending to form a region.

According to the constitution, power structure of the region, its authorities, and the mechanisms for exercising such authorities are defined by the region itself unless they contradict the Constitution. In the case of contradictions between regional and central laws, regional laws are given to superiority. Moreover, apart from the exclusive rights of the central government, all powers belong to the regional authority, and regional governments have the right to amend the application of the legislation within their region.

Conversely, Iraqi Constitution enables regional governments to accumulate authority in their hands. The Constitution affirms that regional authorities have the right to exercise executive, legislative, and judicial powers; to open offices in embassies and diplomatic missions in order to maintain cultural, social, and developmental affairs; to establish and organize internal security forces for the region such as police forces and guards of the region.

Basra’s quest for the autonomy

Autonomy demands in Basra are not recent. Wail Abd al-Latif, a Basra member of parliament and a former Basra provincial governor is the leading figure of autonomy supporters. In 2008, Governor of Basra Mohammad Bosbih Al Waeli underscored that “Basra is inching towards declaring itself an autonomous region. A referendum will be arranged within the first quarter of next year”. However, a petition calling for a referendum to turn Basra province into an autonomous region has failed to gain enough signatures despite of the popular support in 2009. In 2010, 22 members from 35 Basra Provincial Councils signed a petition demanding Baghdad to hold a referendum in the province for autonomy, but this demand was ignored by the centralist Maliki government. In April 2014, Basra Provincial Council threatened to take over state-owned South Oil Company in return to delay in payment of the region’s share from the federal budget. Al-Monitor quoted Sabah al-Bazoni, the head of the State of Law Coalition in Basra’s council that, “The South Oil Co. should be isolated and called the Basra Oil Co., and the local government in the province should handle all administrative and financial matters of the company”.

Why Basra Province seeks the autonomy

Supporters of autonomy suggest several reasons for the establishment of an autonomous Basra Region. First, Basra has the one of the most affluent oil resources and a considerable economic potential compared to other Iraqi regions. One of the world’s largest oil fields, Rumaila that constitutes 40% of Iraq’s oil revenues is located within the borders of Basra. This field can yield a production of 1.4 million barrels per day. Furthermore, other fertile fields such as Majnoon, Nahr Umr, Tuba, Zubair, West Qurna, Luhais, Rachi, and Jerishan all possess significant production capacities and are also located in Basra. Oil revenues constitute the 93% of Iraq’s budget and 65% of its gross national product. Although a large part of this revenue comes from Basra, Basra’s 2012 budget was set at only 3 billion dollars. Even though Basra put forth a budget of billion dollars for 2014, parliament has yet to ratify it. Proponents of autonomous Basra emphasize that Basra’s wealth should remain in Basra. Basra is one of the few Iraqi provinces which are self-sufficient and Basrawis are confident that they can live better without a central government. Many of them question that Basra is a cow that Iraq milks for everything, and gets nothing from Iraq.

Second, ungainly and ineffective Iraqi state bureaucracy is considered as an obstacle for Basra’s development. Although Basra has such a large amount of income, it is unable to provide even consistent municipal services. The inefficacy of the bureaucracy has seeped from the highest level of the state apparatus to its very base. Disruptions in areas such as education, health, municipal services, electricity distribution, and infrastructure have largely negative impacts on people’s daily lives and corruption and dead money are arousing reactions. In particular, the difficulties experienced in supplying electricity and the inability of the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity to find a solution in spite of its more than 100,000 workers precipitates great reaction within the population of Iraq and particularly in Basra, a province rich in natural resources.

Last, increasing violence in Iraq and government’s failure to stabilize the country alienate Basrawis from the central government. Kurdish Region stands as an example that many Basra residents admire enviously. While Iraq is descending in a civil war and chaos, Kurdistan Region has relatively succeeded to provide security and stability for its people. The presence of the KRG, which is gradually developing over its own oil revenues and becoming an area of international investments due to its better security conditions has been taken as an example by the community in Basra. By creating an autonomous region, it is aimed to transform Basra into a southern province that is isolated from the rigid political and security crisis that the country has been facing since 2003.

Reactions to demands for Basra’s Autonomy

Basra’s situation creates thorny debates. Reactions to the establishment of “Autonomous Basra Region” vary. Fadhila Party whose stronghold is Basra and holds Ministry of Justice during Nouri al-Maliki’s and Haidar al-Abadi’s terms is a supporter of this demand. Influential Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr claimed that he is “not a proponent of the regions at all, not in Basra, nor in the other”. As for Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, it is looking at a nine-province federal region in the south. Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the most influential spiritual leader of Shiites, does not show his stance towards this issue, but his office denies the rumours that he is not opposed to a federal Basra region. Baghdad is also sceptical towards its coreligionist. It is argued that one of the reasons of Baghdad’s fierce struggle to prevent Kurds’ independent oil sales is to prevent establishing precedent for Basra.

Opponents of the autonomy claim that this will push the country into other more complex challenges. It may be weaken national integrity of Iraq which is already fragile and causes inter-communal and intra-communal disputes. In addition to the intra-Shiite rivalry in the region, it may cause further problems after the autonomy. Contrary to Kurds, the Shiites lack the level of unity and the established leadership the Kurds have, and they have less power to bargain with Baghdad. Basra was the first province to surrender to the coalition powers in the 2003 invasion. After seizing the province, Brits were unable to create a comprehensive security infrastructure. The Dawa’ Party, the Sadr Group, the Virtue Party, and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq were among the Shiite groups who began quarrelling amongst each other for the control of the city and its oil wealth. Same situation may happen again for the control of this rich city. Although socio-economic reasons are argued as the necessities for autonomy demands, these demands may be applied incorrectly. Independent Shiite state supporters have also used this rhetoric. In addition to that, if there are Kurdish and Shiite regions, this will inevitably lead to the formation of a Sunni region; obviously, it leads to further institutionalization of ethno-sectarian politics. It seems that giving more powers to the existing provinces is a better way to establish decentralized political system and to prevent partition.

The post Federalism Debates In Iraq And Autonomy For Basra Province – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Why do we all around the world say the phase, “Good old times” every time when we are faced with some problem? The answer is not within the superficial “because…it was better,” but in the very clear point of view that, simply, every new period of time is getting worse and worse. Probably our time period will be for somebody, in the future, again, “good old times”.

When we see the year that is passing by us – 2014 within the South_East Europe, I can say that we are living in “the most messed up time of all”, having in mind the protests in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the flooding in Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, nearly 1.5 million unemployed within the above-mentioned countries and, above all, politicians who do not know if they have “came back or gone away”.

Of course, the NATION is the one who will liberate us…the NATION is the one who will protect our souls, but…LUSTRATION is the biggest problem of the “good old times” in the area of former Yugoslavia. If lustration had been conducted properly and right on time, we would not have a social, political and even a national situation that is getting worse and worse as the years pass.

Neo-liberalism is here to stay, but what to expect from former communists? Can we expect from them to implement capitalism? Did we ever, by all means, have real capitalism within the area of the former Yugoslavia in the last 24 years?

No…No…We had — and we are having — first the accumulation of capital in the late feudalism where, basically, tycoons are threatening employees that they will be replaced with the army of unemployed if they do not obey and accept small and ridiculous salaries. Politicians are here collateral damage, together with the people, but collateral damage who, together with tycoons, are creating an environment where 200 workers from Tuzla in Bosnia and Herzegovina just a couple a days tried to leave the country (because they have lost their jobs) and went to Croatia seeking  bread (and were returned back from the border and received 110 Euros in one time support).

Tried to go to Croatia? In the country where the situation is even worse from where just in 2014 fled 30,000 young people (where 60% of pre-school children are hungry every day) to the European Union countries seeking for a better life. Or, maybe they might have gone to Serbia, in the country where populism of the political leaders cannot feed the army of hungry and unemployed people.

At the same time, freedom of the press is under pressure within these countries, while prosecutors and courts are serving the politicians instead of serving the people and the good of the countries. No need to mentioned examples — it is enough just to type “freedom of the press and the name of each country above”.

So, what is the solution?

Simple as it is, the solution is to try to do:

1. Lustration (to protect the country from the former communists and its parts).

2. Rule of law to be implemented by independent judicial system established on continental law rules – responsibility to the people, for the people, of the people.

3. Strong and independent prosecutors offices and intelligence services who will conduct impartial research and check out “the first million” of the local tycoons. Prosecute them and get back the money to be invested in the development of the economy of the area.

We did not mentioned word “democracy”. Why? Because, I am underlining, there is no democracy in the area of former Yugoslavia.

Here we have just a reflection, not even the first step. Instead “one worshiping leader” as in good old times, every nation has its own “worshiping leader”. Blind one.

Again, how we will implement those above mentioned remarks? No way at all! Why, because the people, the non-educated livestock need a Shepherd to lead them to the canyon of death while they are voting again and again “against”, instead of “for” prosperity of its kind.

Methodology is very cruel – There is no really way out from the Balkan peninsula way of living, except, maybe one: education, education, education. Education will allow us to be able to understand what they are doing to us. “They” are Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks (Muslim) who became the biggest believers ever – while, just a couple a decades ago they were the biggest atheists. Good old times – indeed, above all, Happy New 1815. Year, my dear co-citizens of former Yugoslavia.

The post South-East Europe On Edge Of Civilization – Depending Who You Ask: Good Old Times – Essay appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Shujaat Bukhari

Jammu and Kashmir state is witnessing a confusing situation in the aftermath of Assembly elections that threw up a fractured mandate. A record high turnout, notwithstanding, no party is in a position to form a government. Even the game of cobbling up the numbers is becoming difficult, as the divergent political ideologies are still keeping the parties away from the negotiating table. To go or not to go, is the question for which the two major political parties – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) – are struggling to find an answer for.

The high voter turnout that was witnessed despite boycott calls by separatists was expected to throw a “perfect mandate” but it divided the seats in an interesting manner. In contrast to expectations (of the party) as also the exit poll results, PDP could not secure 35 seats which could have placed it in a better position. Out of 87 seats, PDP could get only 28, BJP 25, National Conference 15, Congress 12 and others 7. Had PDP won 35 or more seats, it might have been in a position to easily cobble up with non-BJP forces. Even as NC offered the support, which in every sense was real and Congress also extended an unconditional hand, but there seem to be two important issues involved in taking the final decision vis-a-vis the support of the NC-Congress combination or NC and Congress separately.

One that NC and Congress were voted out of power by the people and joining the hands with either of them would mean disrespecting the mandate and the urge of people for the change. There is no denying the fact that in contrast to its complete drubbing in Parliament elections held in April 2014, NC has made a strong comeback by winning 12 seats from Kashmir valley and three from Jammu. Still the anti-incumbency was riding high during the elections, which cannot be negated. Moreover, NC and PDP getting together seems impossible given the inherent “ideological hate” both Abdullah and Mufti families are harbouring against each other.

On the other hand Congress has won the seats by accident as they based the candidates in the respective constituencies. Otherwise people’s ire against Congress that broke all the records of corruption was more evident on the ground. Humiliating defeat the party tasted in its strong bastion and home turf of its stalwart Ghulam Nabi Azad speaks volumes about how people treated the party that had invested so much in the region.

Another important factor, that apparently comes in way of a grand alliance talked about by senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad is that the majority of people in Jammu region have given their mandate to BJP. The mandate is clearer than what we saw in Kashmir valley. The BJP candidates won with huge margins ranging from 45,000 to 10,000 in most of constituencies, which clearly indicates how people threw their weight behind the right-wing part. In Kashmir that was not the case since the margins were thin in majority of the segments. So in the process of government formation, it is this mandate that is upsetting any permutation and combination based on the so-called “secular ideologies”.

Though there is an element of anti-Kashmir sentiment in the voting pattern in Jammu, at the same time to form a government without the participation of elected representatives of a region may not augur well for the health of the state. Of late there is also a debate going on around the idea of having a different “grand alliance” between PDP, BJP and Congress to ensure that all the three regions of Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh are on board since Congress won three out of four from Ladakh. However, that again looks among the impossibilities as BJP and Congress could only get together in the world hereafter. To stitch such an alliance, it needs a “grand national interest” to emerge from within the political corridors of Delhi.

Though PDP and BJP are holding “serious” back channel negotiations and have even exchanged papers on crucial issues, it is the most critical phase in the existence of 15-year-old PDP to take a final call on the issue. For BJP it may still be easier to keep the contentious issue off the table. They had already mellowed down the rhetoric on issues such as Article 370, but for PDP it is to do something against a political ideology. BJP is more concerned about being part of a power structure since it has remarkably improved its tally from 11 seats in 2008 to 25 in 2014. Only by coming to power it can consolidate its base and further it in future. So the political ideology could wait.

For PDP it is both – to come into power to survive on the ground and also to ensure that its political ideology is not diluted to the extent that it is seen as a sell-out agent for the sake of power. As of now the PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, has widened the spectrum of consultations with his MLAs and party leaders but is weighing the options considering the fallout of such an alliance. He may become Chief Minister for six years, but more troubling question that is tickling his mind is the future of his party.

One argument that is being articulated behind the tie up with BJP is that it would ensure development and free flow of funds. That, however, may not be tenable as there are many non-BJP ruled states in India and they don’t necessarily suffer on account of free flow of funds. Similarly during Congress rule there have been BJP governments in various states. Larger issue that PDP will have to manoeuvre around is the political situation in the state. That is why Mufti has pushed forward the “Agenda for Alliance” centering around the engagement with Pakistan, separatists, cross LoC Confidence Building Measures, making a secure environment and bringing respite in the lives of the people.

This may be difficult for BJP to digest such a line of thinking, since Prime Minister Narendra Modi unilaterally called off Foreign Secretary-level talks in July and has adopted a hard posturing vis a vis Pakistan. But to Mufti’s understanding, the route for reconciliation with Pakistan passes through Kashmir and he would like to bargain hard on political issues rather than the development to come true to the sense of people in seeing him and his party as “saviours” in the mainstream camp.

If at all this alliance comes into existence, it may throw up an opportunity for Modi to tread on Vajpayee’s line of thinking which he has often invoked during last few months. But for Mufti, a shrewd politician, it may be difficult to join hands with a party that drew a blank in recent elections in Kashmir. To do business with BJP is nothing less than going to gallows with a hope to survive.

Shujaat Bukhari
Editor, Rising Kashmir

By arrangement with Rising Kashmir

The post India: Government Formation In J&K: Tight Rope Walk – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Erl Murati

Albania is promoting peaceful co-existence between Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo by fostering ethnic reconciliation and tolerance that it hopes will lead to the integration of the Serbian minority, the return of refugees and lasting peace, experts said.

Ilir Meta, Albania’s speaker of the parliament, visited the town of Gjilan (Gnjilane) in Kosovo earlier this month, following the visit of Prime Minister Edi Rama to Serbia, to give a push to the reconciliation process.

Meta praised the standards the Serb minority enjoys, and said that they are a result of the vision and tolerance of the people living there who are true European citizens.

“I have the highest consideration for the excellent inter-ethnic cohabitation,” Meta said.

Many Serbs that left Kosovo because they feared for their safety during and after the 1999 war are attempting to return to their properties.

At least 2,000 Serb families have told Pristina’s Ministry for Communities and Return (MCR) that they intend to come back to Kosovo.

“The entire government must be involved in order for mass returns to occur. These people have done what was in their power to do. But the resources allocated for their return are not enough and, without a doubt, we must have more funds next year when the returns take place. Specific things are ahead of us that will [need to] be solved,” said Aleksandar Jablanovic, the minister of communities and return.

The newly appointed Kosovo government of Prime Minister Isa Mustafa promised 7.6 million euros for this ministry.

Moreover, the government of Albania allocated 400,000 euros for the re-construction of the damaged Grachanica monastery. More than 100 Serb churches and monasteries have been destroyed or damaged by Albanian vigilantes in Kosovo during and after the war.

Officials said the integration of Serbs has been difficult because of fear of ethnically-motivated violence against them, and the difficult economic situation in Kosovo.

“Problems do exist, but if we manage to resolve them peacefully, then there will be no motive or reason in the future for relations between Albanians and Serbs to be war like,” said Lutfi Haziri, head of the Gjilan municipality.

But experts said that Albania and Serbia should redouble their efforts in order to achieve tangible results.

“Tirana should give messages for the encouragement of reconciliation,” Adnan Shehaj, specialist at the European Centre for Reconciliation in Tirana, told SETimes.

Shehaj said Albanians and Serbs must focus on the future rather than the past.

“The people of Kosovo should work together to build the new state and improve the quality of life under the good example of the European values,” Shehaj said.

By helping the returnees, the government is trying to create a positive atmosphere free of fear, said Bekim Blakaj of the Fund for Humanitarian Law in Pristina.

“With this kind of assistance, the prejudices are broken and some kind of trust is established among the communities. It also paves the way toward reconciliation in the future,” Blakaj told SETimes.

Sonja Biserko, president of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia, said it is a time for both sides’ elites to start a dialogue that will lead to normalised relations and eventually reconciliation.

“The Kosovo institutions are supposed to guarantee the co-existence and there is an effort in that direction. There needs to be more effort from Belgrade to encourage the Serbs to integrate and to accept reality,” Biserko told SETimes.

Lush Gjergji, a Catholic priest in Kosovo, said the country has underestimated the risk of religious extremism.

“We should continue to achieve forgiveness … The work of the government and the NGOs should have a wide popular support, especially in the family, school and in society, the mass-media, everywhere. Only that way it can be ensured to have a positive and constructive effect,” Gjergji told SETimes.

Correspondent Linda Karadaku in Gjilan contributed to this article.

The post Tirana, Belgrade To Encourage Reconciliation In Kosovo appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Sergio Rojas

On 17 December, FARC declared a unilateral ceasefire of offensive operations against government forces. This announcement comes at a crucial time, not just in terms of ongoing peace negotiations that were recently imperiled by the abduction of a general, but also the government’s push to find foreign investors to develop Colombia’s energy sector.

The Santos government currently faces a dilemma. Agreeing to this détente risks creating an opportunity for the insurgency to recover militarily, which would in turn afford it added leverage at the negotiation table. Going by the past peace process, this is a very possible outcome. On the other hand, continuing operations against the FARC is likely to decrease political support from the Left, and could in turn could complicate an already drawn out peace process.

Even as the government and FARC agree to continue peace negotiations under a new set of operative guidelines, the security situation is unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future.

Both FARC and ELN still enjoy significant financial and operative capacity despite having been reduced to less than half their size from their peak in the late 90s and early 2000s. They still control a large portion of the lucrative drug trade and wield influence across a number of municipalities, many of which are ripe for potential energy exploration projects.

In recent years, there has been a steady deterioration of the security environment for the oil and gas sector. From 2005 to 2013 the number of recorded attacks on pipelines has more than doubled; among these, is the The Caño Limón –Coveñas pipeline, which suffered a 93-day shutdown over the last 12 months. As a result, several companies have begun to use more costly methods of transportation. If this trend continues, it is likely to deter foreign companies from looking for new opportunities in the Colombian market. Although the number of attacks has decreased over the course of 2014, security risks remain.

Given that 90-95% of attacks on energy infrastructure originate from the ELN or FARC insurgency, a peace agreement will be a very positive development for the energy sector. This has been a drawn out peace process in which the Santos government has invested significant political capital. However, the timeline for a final agreement is far from certain. Difficult points remain in the agenda, including justice and reparations to victims, as well as the demobilization of fighters. With middle rank commanders earning close to $240,000 per year, it is expected that a peace agreement will not end the fighting, as some will merely go on to join other illegal groups.

Greater stability and government policy reforms have contributed to Colombia’s energy sector becoming one of the most attractive in Latin America in recent years. Nevertheless, as other countries in the region become more competitive, obvious security shortfalls will necessitate that the sector attain greater priority for this government in the near future.

This article was published at Geopolitical Monitor.com

The post FARC Ceasefire Not End Of Colombia’s Energy Sector Woes – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Were a visitor to arrive at the embattled city of Aleppo these frigid and bleak days from the western government controlled side of the 7000 year old city, even if blindfolded and wearing tight earplugs the sightless and deaf traveler would likely sense something very different from what he experiences in Damascus and other cities in Syria.

Somehow, a visitor just feels it in the ambient atmosphere. Something–expectations, pressure, anticipation, dread, anguish, excitement is rapidly building and seemingly is about to impact profoundly events in this war. With no end even faintly in sight, the BBC reported on New Years day that 76,021 people, 18,000 of them civilians, were killed in Syria during 2014 alone bringing the total close to a quarter million over the past 45 months. As 2015 begins, an estimated 10.8 million Syrians are suffering inside the country with more than half of the population living in extreme poverty and fewer than half of the country’s children attending school. The UN reports that there are more than 3.2 million Syrian refugees in neighboring countries and more than 10 million displaced by the conflict.

Aleppo has been and remains, along with Damascus, the strategic area which is critical to both sides of the chaotically stalemated conflict. The victor in Aleppo will achieve momentum which some military experts claim will lead them to control much of Syria and certainly nearly all of the major population centers. Aleppo is crucial for both sides as pressure builds daily and as many Aleppines are expressing a sense that some powerful dynamic in about to occur leading toward a resolution of the four year civil war or perhaps leading to even more abject horror.

None of us knows of course but this observer wondered the other day if this is what his host, the commander of government forces in the old city souk in Aleppo had in mind when he looked up toward the nearby ancient Citidel where his troops are finally stationed after two years of fighting opposition forces. But what did he mean when he cryptically said, “In three days my friend you will see something happen here that will have major consequences, enshallah (god willing) for the good of the Syrian people and my country.”

Well, in the following three days nothing particularly major seemed to happen in the neighborhood where this observer has been staying the western section of Aleppo. The usual thuds of mortars and artillery and aircraft screaming across the sky followed by bomb blasts and passersby often squinting skyward and shrugging at visitors as they hurry on their way.

On the third day in Idlib, rebels and Nusra Front militants did seize at least three government checkpoints near two military bases, Wadi Deif and Hamidiyeh which straddle an important supply route in Idlib Province to the southwest. This achievement suggests al Nusra achieves occasional dominance over the Syrian army. Yet almost immediately government combat aircraft bombed the Bab town area of Aleppo, an area controlled by Da’ish (IS) which are increasingly collaborating with Nusra in some areas. Rebels hav also been active recently to the southwest adding more pressure on government forces that are currently scattered over a large area vaguely surrounding Allepo and fighting to capture it from rebels still building up their forces in the east, north and northwest of the city.

Or did the commander mean the reportedly rapid in-gathering of Hezbollah and Iranian fighters who many believe are preparing a Qalamoun type offensive from the west aimed at cutting supplies lines to rebels forces? Its hard to know, but when we last visited his compound on the fifth day, for sure it had changed, presumably in anticipation of something significant about to be unleashed. The hallways of his three level HQ were now neatly stacked to the ceilings with rockets and ammunition of various kinds. One of his aides joked that he hoped Da’ish or Nusra was not digging another tunnel in the area. With a grimace, his commander explained that his men have only a little outdated Soviet era tunnel detection equipment that does not work well so they rely on literally keeping their ears to the ground to detect deadly tunneling sounds. Rebel tunneling that led to the nearby 150 year old Carlton Citadel Hotel being completely demolished on 8 May 2014. The blast from a tunnel underneath killed between 14 and 50 people depending of which source one credits. Da’ish claims it was being used as an army barracks. As this observer stumbled alongside army guys whispering into their radios as we climbed through the Carlton Hotel rubble in pitch blackness toward the Citadel, he was advised that some bodies under the rubble had still not been recovered seven months later and he sensed fear in his guides about tunnels being dug below. A well-grounded nervousness because on 12/30/14 a powerful blast from explosives planted in a tunnel near the HQ this observer visited reportedly, by a new rebel coalition in Aleppo called Jabha Shamiyeh, killed or wounded more than 30 soldiers.

Both sides and their allies are getting exhausted with reported increased desertions from both sides and intensifying complaints from the population. Syria’s allies are growing weary of a conflict that could last decades without clear benefits to any side. Russia is tired with major economic problems looming. The recent collapse in oil prices and Western sanctions have battered the Russian economy which has fallen into decline for the first time in five years, according to official figures. This forced drastic interventions from the Russian Central Bank and appears to be creating the biggest crisis in Vladimir Putin’s leadership of the country. Russia’s economy ministry said GDP had fallen by 0.5pc in the year to November, the latest sign that the country is heading for recession.

With respect to Iran, despite repeated assurances from its leaders that the US led sanctions have been defeated, it still faces severe economic problems as well as the growing loss of al Quds commanders in Syria and Iraq leading to increasing criticism of the regimes involvement in both countries and even Lebanon from the Iranian people.

Iran’s worst nightmare in Iraq and Syria and perhaps soon in Lebanon is Da’ish (IS) and Nusra black flags fluttering on the horizon Both have left little doubt that they view Shia as a cult of apostates who tried to hijack Islam in the 7th Century and need to be eradicated or at a minimum converted and watched closely. On 12/19/14 a suicide bomber, presumably from Da’ish (IS) or Nusra attacked Shiite pilgrims on their way to a shrine at Samarra in the Taji area north of Baghdad again, this time killing at least 17 people and wounding more than 35. This as they have recently launched a campaign to liberate Syria and Iraq from what they claim now nearly total Iranian occupation. Da’ish has launched a social media campaign among Sunni tribes to eliminate once and for all Shia and return Islam to the Caliphate of and by Mohammad the Prophet. One Da’ish adviser discussed with this observer how Iran’s regime has become vulnerable and ripe for removal by the people of Iran due to the same forces plaguing Hezbollah. That is trying to justify to their supporters why they are in Iraq and Syria killing Sunni and Shia alike instead of getting serious about dialogue and salvaging these countries. Time is claimed to be on the side of Da’ish by its spokesmen given the perceived depth of corruption and illegitimacy of rulers in the region and increasingly restive populations.

One student I met at the restaurant in Aleppo explained as only an inspired student seems to be able and willing to do these days: “Change is coming. Deep change. The corrupt incompetents and religious fanatics on all both sides will be swept away. What you are seeing these days in our region are only mild soft tremors presaging the next phase. Frankly, I put religions at the top of my personal Terrorism List.”

Hezbollah is under increasing pressure, even within the Shia community, to leave Syria and Iraq partly because their supporters have tired of seeing posters of their dead sons plastered around the Bekaa, South Beirut, and South Lebanon. Hezbollah leaders have never really convinced many people of its necessity to fight in Syria and Iraq to keep the “terrorist and takfiris” out of Lebanon. According to virtually every poll taken, a majority of Lebanese believe the opposite- believing that IS and Al Nusra are coming here because Hezbollah went there and created a magnate for jihadists to fight them and target their strongholds. Meanwhile some right-wing Israeli politicians, if not the Northern Command, reportedly claim Hezbollah is over stretched and they fantasize about ‘ turf furloughing’ in Lebanon’ and carpet bombing Hezbollah much more severely than during its most recent genocidal ‘lawn-mowing’ in Gaza.

Against this backdrop, maybe the subject most frequently discussed these days with foreign visitors to Aleppo is the urgent need for a ceasefire leading to a negotiated settlement. So the time may be ripe for a ceasefire in Aleppo. One idea is to establish a ‘stand down models’ or ‘freeze zones” to be put into place across Syria in order to stop the seemingly interminable slaughter. UN envoys UN Envoy Staffan De Mistura’s proposal for a ‘freeze’ and the fast approaching Jan. 26-29 Moscow talks could be what the army commander had in mind. Part of De Mistura’s goal is to secure a ceasefire that would allow humanitarian aid to reach those in dire need. He has warned the fall of Aleppo would likely create an additional 400,000 refugees.

The ‘freeze’ proposal was within three days of the commanders prediction and if adopted by the parties could spread to other areas and conceivable lead to a ceasefire and then to peace talks as being promoted by Russia and being studied by the Assad government. The Foreign Ministry told the media this week that “Syria is ready to participate in preliminary consultations in Moscow in order to meet the aspirations of Syrians to find a way out of crisis.”

One example of ‘freezing the conflict in Aleppo” movement, as a step toward a broader settlement along the lines proposed by is the 12/29/14 action by Syrian army allowing more than 30 besieged families and some armed men who surrendered, “safe passage” out of from Douma and Zibdin in Eastern Ghouta adjoining Damascus. There are also rumors that male evacuees might be recruited into a pro-regime militia. The evacuation was the second since December 9, when 76 families were allowed out of Douma.

According to Freeze proponents, this plan to freeze the fighting in Aleppo is the only hopeful one available. De Mistura has said he sees no hope for another plan and it is the only plan capable of freezing the fighting, securing people’s needs and returning the displaced people who are burdening neighboring areas and states. It will also allow for the eventual process of reconstruction he and many others insist. Regime supporters argue that Syrian President Assad is showing readiness to ensure the success of the international plan in Aleppo, and that he convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin of the plan while convincing his Iranian allies as well.

The White House, despite reservations, appears more flexible this week, linking their approval with that of some of their regional allies, meaning Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Persian Gulf countries. Two rounds of Geneva talks early in 2014 failed to halt the conflict and some claimed actually inflamed it.

A Syrian gentleman who speaks regularly to security officials and leaders from Mr. Assad’s minority Alawite sect, an important component of his base, said recently that a growing numbers across the political spectrum now are insisting on a political settlement despite others still insisting on a fight to the death. One angry gentleman, exhibiting a ‘no turning back’ mentality and who lost his home, family and all hope for recovery, emphasized to this observer, that, “What happens to us during this period is not important. What matters is how history will judge us 1000 years from now.”

And so the Syrian civil war goes on. As Red Cross Dr David Nott who returned to Aleppo recently to help treat victims presented a gloomy assessment while describing the nearly complete breakdown of medical treatment in the city. He explained that more than 80% of patients requiring urgent treatment now die as a result of their injuries or lack of basic care, medicine and equipment. A plunge in vaccination rates from 90 percent before the war to 52 percent this year and contaminated water is allowing typhoid and hepatitis to spread and over half of public hospitals are closed resulting in treatments for diseases and injuries being erratic. More than 6,500 cases of typhoid and 4,200 cases of measles, the deadliest disease for Syrian children, being reported in 2014 across Syria.

One can only wish Envoy De Mistura and like-minded proponents of the immediate establishment of a “freeze zone” in Aleppo, to be replicated across Syria as strongly favored by army commanders with whom this observer recently discussed the subject, the very best of luck in the New Year.

Freezing hostilities in Aleppo could possibly achieve the same for Syria. It’s worth a try.

The post As Aleppo Goes, So Goes Syria? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The euro entered circulation in Lithuania on Thursday, bringing the number of European Union (EU) Member States using the single European currency to 19.

“On behalf of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, I welcome this further enlargement of the euro area. Lithuania has taken exceptional measures in difficult times to reach its goal of joining the single currency,” Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, said.

Lietuvos bankas, the national central bank of Lithuania, becomes a member of the Eurosystem, the central banking system of the euro area, which comprises the ECB and 19 national central banks. Lithuania also joins the Single Supervisory Mechanism, which brings bigger banks under ECB supervision. Three Lithuanian banks (SEB bankas, Swedbank and DNB bankas) fall under the direct supervision of the ECB. They have already undergone the comprehensive assessment, a financial check of 130 banks in the euro area.

Lietuvos bankas has paid the remainder of its contribution to the capital of the ECB and transferred its contribution to the ECB’s foreign reserve assets. The integration of Lithuanian monetary financial institutions (MFIs) into the euro area banking system on 1 January 2015 was already taken into account in the publication of the euro area liquidity needs and the benchmark allotment on 30 December 2014. Lithuanian counterparties of the Eurosystem will be able to participate in ECB open market operations announced after 1 January 2015.

A list of the banks and other MFIs located in Lithuania that are subject to reserve requirements will be published shortly on the ECB’s website, as are the lists of the MFIs located in other EU Member States that have adopted the euro. Provision has also been made for a transitional maintenance period from 1 to 27 January 2015 for the imposition of minimum reserve requirements on Lithuanian MFIs. The assets located in Lithuania that are eligible for use as collateral in the credit operations of the Eurosystem will also be added to the euro area’s list of eligible marketable assets, which is available on the ECB’s website.

Lithuania’s accession to the euro area as its 19th member also means that the new system of rotating voting rights in the ECB Governing Council comes into force.

The post Lithuania Joins Euro Area appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Now is the time for our traditional annual forecast for our local energy markets in 2015. Please do note that the economy and business is always shaped by expectations, and as such market expectations are important in the economic forecasts. At the beginning of each year, there are many economic forecasts made by the nationwide daily newspaper columnists, however there are almost no local forecasts made for the energy markets. Within our professional capacity, we have tried to outline a draft forecast, albeit maybe somewhat irrational/ unfair for the New Year. Anyhow it is better to have one, rather than none. Here are our expectations for the New Year 2015:

Electricity

Turkish power generation capacity could have reached to +69K MWs in year 2014, and consumption peak is recorded as +39K in last August. Turkey is still at very low annual per capita electricity / production / consumption with approximately +3200 kWh, EU current average is +10K; North American average is +12K.
Electricity demand growth slowed down in 2014. Slowdown in local demand for electricity in the first quarter 2015 will continue. Other than early winter shortages, electricity prices will not increase in throughout 2015.

Privatization of nationwide electricity “Distribution” and “Generation” are almost completed in 2014. “WholeSale market” and “Unbundling” process are ongoing. National electricity “Retail” systems will develop in 2015.

Gas

Local Gas consumption is expected to be 48 billion Sm3 in year 2014. In 2015, Iran may not cut-off Natural Gas flow due to excessive needs of during harsh winter conditions in her own domestic market. In case of any winter interruption, Russians will increase supply capacity in the Blue Stream for a substantial premium as usual.

Gas flow from Iran to Turkey will be easier since US sanctions over Iranian exports are expected to be lifted soon after finalization of Nuclear talks in Geneva. That may cause more uninterrupted gas from Iran for long term, although gas price will not be reduced, but stay stable for medium term. Gas is still too expensive. Western Gas is now approx. 11.00 US Dollars per MMBTU as of Dec-2014 at our western border. Turkish natural gas demand will begin to fall due to counter measures taken, probably by the second half of the year. Accelerated increase in local fuel prices, is expected, after the general elections which will take place in June 2015.

Pipeline

Part of Western natural gas pipeline supply by Russia’s Gazprom is placed to local companies. We expect market share wars between them.

TransAnatolian Pipeline Tanap project is in fast-track agenda. Nabucco is closed.

New “South Stream” underwater pipeline from Russia to Thrace border, was recently announced. It needs time for full realization.
Northern Iraq oil and gas pipelines are on hold due to civil war in Syria.

Shale gas

It is too early to expect any substantial “Shale Gas” production in our country. There are two specific regions for exploration, but gas production can not be realized overnight. On the other hand, “Shale gas” boom in the USA will reduce gas prices in the spot market for sure. Europeans are reluctant since cracking process may trigger earthquakes, and huge amount of injection water is polluted.

Gas fired Combined cycle power plants

We expect less number of investments for new natural gas fired  Combined Cycle power plants due to increasing Current Account Deficiency. There are still new investments in Kırıkkale, Thrace Çorlu, Adapazarı, Ankara Kazan, Kırşehir, Bandırma, Mersin, Kırklareli, Izmit on gas fired combined cycle power plants.
We do not know who will supply the necessary gas for these new gas fired plants, and at what price.

Iranian Nuclear talks

Iranian Nuclear strike capability makes Israel nervous. Although “G5+ Iran” has already agreed on nuclear settlement for non-aggressive nuclear use, Israel may still initiate surprise attack to Iran which may lead to global energy crises in the world. So we should be on the safe side and we should have increased underground gas storage capability and fuel storage facilities.

Nuclear

Russians started to outsource all non-critical equipment for Akkuyu Nuclear Power plant, starting from local civil works, high capacity steam turbines, instrumentation and controls, due to experience on serious shortage of available commercial financing. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report approval is received in late 2014.
Since the ongoing nuclear project is not commercial, but it is now purely political, political financing for that gigantic figure is not so easy. Political risks of a nuclear power plant project cannot be properly estimated; hence non-commercial project has no commercial meaning.

Hot seawater will be a chronic problem for plant cooling system in Akkuyu.

Sinop Nuclear power plant project is awarded to “Japan+ French” consortium. An Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) was signed between Government of Republic of Turkey, and Government of Japan on 3rd May 2013 for the construction of Sinop NPP.
We suspect if Japanese commercial companies can secure approx. 22 plus billion US Dollar project financing. We shall wait and see the outcome. They may face financing difficulties, although local public company EÜAŞ will get 35% equity partnership.

Sinop Nuclear Plant site is in the thick forest. Local “Forest Law” and compensation for demolished “trees” would be a great burden on the project budget in the long term.

Cold sea water is better for overall efficiency and for nuclear power plant cooling systems. Therefore the next nuclear power plant sites are expected to be on the BlackSea coast line, maybe in İğneada on the NorthWest and Hopa on NorthEast.

New nuclear power plants are expected to be close to metropolitan cities with heavy demand, so Kırıkkale-Ankara, Aliağa-İzmir, and even Kemerköy-Muğla are possible new sites in long term consideration. French, Korean, Chinese Nuclear companies may participate to these new nuclear power plant investment projects in future.

Privatization

3×210 MWe Yatağan- 2x210MWe Yeniköy- 3x201MWe Kemerköy thermal power plants in southwest of Turkey are privatized in 2014. After plant sales, renovation, rehab, re-power or complete demolition is expected by the investor.

Imported coal firing 2×600 MWe new thermal plant could be build at seaside Kemerköy plant site in the long term. Summer holiday facilities can also be considered.

Local hard coal firing 2×150 MWe Çatalağzı-B thermal power plant in Zonguldak county on the BlackSea coast is also sold. Orhaneli 210 MWe, Tunçbilek 430MWe thermal power plants are also privatized in late 2014.

Due to low investor appetite both local and international, privatization strategy will be reconsidered in order to increase the ongoing high income based tendering process.

Coal

We expect new investment initiatives on new found coal mine fields in Konya Karapınar, Afyon Dinar, Eskişehir-Alpu in order to build new thermal power plants under locally developed clean coal technologies.

Local coal firing new thermal power plant constructions in Bolu Göynük, Eskişehir Mihalıccık, Bursa Keles (EIA reactions), Manisa Soma, Adana Tufanbeyli (two separate plants 700 MWe and 450 MWe) are in construction progress.

Thermal power plant investments in NorthWest BlackSea coast are expected to be on hold for a while due to  ongoing EIA scheme, and due to high reaction of local environmentalists.

Local Regulation of foreign personnel employment is changed, so cheap foreign employment from FarEast countries is not possible any more.

Situation in Soma for new 450 MWe thermal power plant seems on hold due to local reactions to olive tree demolition. Company should look for nearby empty land to build new  thermal power plant.
Moreover there are a number of imported coal firing new thermal power plant applications for Bay of Iskenderun, Soma, around Sea of Marmara, Bay of Aliağa but public authorities are quite reluctant for approval due to high impact on “Current Account Deficit (CAD)”.

Afşin Elbistan

Due to ongoing high environmental pollution, no sufficient filters, no desulphurization, no rehab, it is our sincere recommendation that existing Unit Afşin Elbistan-A group, should be shut down, dismantled and sold as scrap. However it is now in longterm hand-over process in privatization. New plant installation is strongly recommended.

Elbistan Çöllolar landslide disaster was forgotten after the event. Reutilization is enforced after legal procedures are completed. De-watering- drying of the landslide region is continued. Hurman Creek riverbed is changed, it will flow from north without passing through the mine field.

Çöllolar coal mine field will be in preparation by the end of next year, and only after normalization of coal fields in Çöllolar, then AfşinElbistan-B plant can work at higher capacity factor.

Afşin Elbistan Coal is supplied to the plants at about 1.75-1.80 US Dollars per MMBTU, which is very competitive. But calorific value is too low. So we need to have proven coal firing technology for the local coal.

Afşin Elbistan-B plant has proven technology for firing local nearby coal. However two units are now out of operation. Second unit had fire accident in boiler dust filters. Third unit had steam turbine break down. Repair works are recently tendered. It will need at least minimum two years for complete operation.

New international partners are sought for Afsin Elbistan C-E.

Wind

Investment appetite in Wind capacity is almost saturated, Environmental concerns will be on the agenda. High voltage transmission lines are missing. Huge investment is needed for those new transmission lines for more aggressive wind power integration. However investments will continue at a moderate level at about 300-500 MW per year.

Solar

Investment in Solar energy is still very little, without making local fabrication of the solar equipment; one cannot go further with expensive electricity generation. Only household small scale electricity generation could be implemented.

Electric cars / buses are in agenda, but we shall all ask who will be paying high cost of new transformers due to additional heavy pulse load.

HEPP

HEPP investment projects receive severe reactions of local people, and reactions will continue on all legal platforms.

Climate change

Nationwide CO2 emissions will increase ever more with the ongoing coal firing investments. It is a great national dilemma difficult to solve in our energy hungry local market. How do we run away the climate change obligations? We shall have low profile participations of the public sector.

Local fabrication

Although there are a number of preliminary meetings in the Ministry, in the local fabrication associations, in various NGO groups, still local design, local fabrication, local engineering for thermal power plants do not exist yet. New public tendering procedures give price advantage to proposals with local fabrication.

Electricity Transmission lines

Construction of Thracian HV AC Submarine transmission crossing Dardanelles Channel will be completed soon. New crossings are planned.

Construction activities for Submarine HVDC cable, gas and water supply pipelines from Turkey to Northern Cyprus will continue.

International relations

Turkey is to return to her historical motto “peace at home, peace in the world”, principle rather than “precious loneliness”. “Precious loneliness” is too costly foreign policy.

No hostility foreseen between democratic countries Greece, Israel and Turkey, however pushing for fair share of nearby natural resources is the rule of the game in international politics.

Democracies do not make war between each other. Public forces/ votes force them to compromise.

Offshore East Med

East Med Cyprus offshore drilling work did not reveal expected results. Offshore Contractor Company is not comfortable with the early results. South Cyprus media and government still push positive expectations, trying to keep the case in agenda, but the situation seems not so promising, the investor does not want to gamble any more, return is not earlier than 10 years in time.

Israel Offshore fields are proven but they have production storage and transmission problems. These problems can not be solved before we have stable peace on East Med waters.

Black Sea Offshore drilling is a never-ending story, everyone is talking about very large reserves, but there is nothing in reality.

Syria

Change of power in Syria is not foreseen in the short term. However influx of refugee number will get increased to 2 million soon. It is too alarming situation. We shall need approximately 10 billion US Dollars in 2015 for the Syrian refugees. This is a great burden on our economy. Our streets are full of desperate Syrian refugees. Street crime is on rise. Drastic changes in the current international relations policies are deemed necessary.

TTIP

We should participate to Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP. That is vital task in 2015 for all public & private authorities. It is too costly to stay outside.

Restructuring

Not only the Ministry of Environment but also the Government is expected in reshuffle. Change in top posts will not be a surprise prior to general elections in June 2015.

The secondary legislation of the Energy Ministry is still in preparation. Some of new regulations in preliminary nature are released for public review. The Minister may leave his post in the next municipality and general elections due to party restrictions.
We expect reorganization as well as restructuring in Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources in order to reduce staff, to reassess duties and responsibilities.

EMRA needs to be reorganized and restructured, and Agency may be divided into two, maybe three. EMRA licensing will go on with reduced speed, copy / paste applications for license overrun archives. Rejection is still less than 2%. Most projects are on hold.
“Each and every incentive/ every good intention are abused with extreme care”, so political power is reluctant to issue new energy incentives, especially on imported fossil fuel firing new power plants.  Current account deficit (CAD) is in sever situation due to increased spending on imported coal and imported natural gas purchases, at intolerable levels. Increased use of domestic coal / energy sources  should be encouraged.

Transportation

We are happy to see that “High Speed Train” investments are on track. Ankara- Istanbul railway is completed in 2014. Ankara- Izmir, Sivas, Erzurum are in progress. We hope to have more intercity metro line constructions.

Municipality and General Elections

Turkey will enter into a period of nationwide frenzy general elections in year 2015. In new general elections, all of 3-term MPs will leave Parliament and Ministerial posts. Ministries of Energy, Economy, as well as Treasury will miss their strong leadership.  That is a great risk.

Investment Environment

Almost all existing thermal power plants are in privatization, but investment appetite is low because of the ongoing global economic crisis and June 2013 Gezi Park public uprising. The same tendency will continue in the second half of next year.

Western Foreign investors have lost their appetite in our energy markets; domestic investors do not have money. On the other hand investors of oil rich Middle East countries may have increased appetite.

Local real estate bubble may face difficulties and few bankruptcy may appear.

We face project finance difficulties on controversial mega projects. We have growing “current account deficit”. Drastic measures” on public spending will continue in 2015.

In recent popular social media, in tweeter, facebook, whats-up, investors are more or less incorrectly/ but implicitly represented as negative profiles, it is alarmingly too deceptive. That public profile should be corrected.

Consolidation in electricity generation business will increase with M&A’s.

Few bankruptcies may take place. In principle, we would recommend individuals to reduce expenditures, reduce spending, reduce borrowing, and stay cash, stay liquid.  Everyone in business environment says that 2015 will be another difficult year. We were able to predict this much.

The post Turkey Energy & Infrastructure Forecast 2015: Risks And Opportunities – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By R. Upadhyay

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen President and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi while speaking after releasing a book “Mere Taboot Par Jashna”(Celebration on my Coffin) in last September (2014) at Hyderabad criticised the demand of the local unit of the BJP and other parties to celebrate September 17 officially as “Hyderabad Liberation Day”. He demanded the State Government to include a chapter on seventh Nizam Mir Osman Ali Khan in the school syllabus of Telangna State. (http://www.siasat.com/english/news/asaduddin-owaisi-demands-chapter-niza…).

Owaisi clan of Hyderabad is known for their controversial statements from the day they inherited the legacy and succession of Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) in 1957 by prefixing All India in it. Thus, the AIMIM emerged as the re-incarnation of the dreaded, divisive communal and violent MIM. Unfortunately, its leaders too remained perpetually restive and aggressive against the constitutional establishment of the country to keep the legacy of Nizam and Qasim Rizvi, a militant Islamist in his (Nizam) army.

Rizvi who was the president of MIM, a historically divisive and disruptive political formation had a black record of setting up the infamous, communal and violent Islamic militia known as Razakars as a para-military Islamic force under the patronage of Nizam to defend his sovereignty over Hyderabad State against the proposal for its merger with Indian Union.

With Razakars under his command, Rizvi was so powerful that he was virtually the proxy ruler in the streets of Hyderabad and Aurangabad where the Islamic militia committed a reign of terror.  His militant and hateful mind-set could be judged from the threat he gave to the Government of India during talks with V. P. Menon, the then Secretary in the Ministry of States in Delhi. He said, “if Government of India insisted on a plebiscite, the final arbiter could only be the sword”. (Integration of the Indian States by V. P. Menon, page334). Similarly in one of his jehadi speeches as published in press, he asserted: “The day is not far off when the waves of the Bay of Bengal will be washing the feet of our sovereign”. He further declared that “he would plant the Asaf Jahi flag on the Red Fort in Delhi” (Ibid. page 352).

A later day  provocative public speech of Asaduddin’s brother Akbaraduddin Owaisi, the MLA of AIMIM in Adilabad district of Andhra Pradesh that “Get the police out of the way for 15 minutes and we will show you who is more powerful” wass similar to the threat of Rizvi.

The political ideology of Razakar commander Rizvi as the president of the MIM which believed that “the ruler throne (Nizam) is the symbol of the political and cultural rights of the Muslim community …. (and) this status must continue forever”. (Party Politics in Andhra Pradesh by Vadakattu Hanumantha Rao, 1983, Page 163) appears to be the core ideology of the AIMIM leaders even now.

The MIM had also “proclaimed Muslims as the monarchs of Deccan with Nizam as only the symbolic expression of their political sovereignty. It demanded the creation of an independent Hyderabad to synchronise with the lapse of British paramountcy”. (State Government and Politics – Andhra Pradesh by Reddy & Sharma, 1979, page392).

Demanding an inclusion of a chapter on Nizam in school syllabus of Telangna by Asaduddin Owaisi as president of AIMIM is apparently a repeat of the above belief of the parent body MIM. A brief historical background of the AIMIM may be necessary to understand the political game of the Owaisi brothers.

After the death of Bahadur Yar Jung in early forties of the last century, the command of the MIM was taken over by Kasim Razvi, who enrolled a large number of Muslim youths as Razakars to fight against the freedom fighters of Congress, Arya Samaj and Hindu Mahasabha and emerged as “champion of Muslims and protector of a Muslim State”. The militancy of the party however reached to its peak when India was already in the process of Independence and partition and  the Razakars added a dangerous extra dimension of complexity by fomenting widespread unrest in the region.

After Independence when the negotiation between Nizam and Government of India for the accession of Hyderabad into Indian Union was in progress, the Razakars created a reign terror to such an extent that led the Indian Army to a swift action which could control Rizvi and his Razakars within four days. The sword of Rizvi failed to protect the end of the autocratic rule of Nizam, who surrendered at 1700 hours on September 17, 1948 and integration of Hyderabad State with Indian Union which was the demand of the people of the region became a reality.

The radio speech of Nizam on September 23 was in fact a confession of being a prisoner of MIM activists led by Razvi. He said, “In November last, a small group which had organized a quasi-military organization surrounded the homes of my Prime Minister, the Nawab of Chhatari, in whose wisdom I had complete confidence, and of Sir Walter Monkton, my constitutional Adviser, by duress compelled the Nawab and other trusted ministers to resign and forced the Laik Ali Ministry on me. This group headed by Kasim Razvi had no stake in the country or any record of service behind it. By methods reminiscent of Hitelerite Germany it took possession of the State, spread terror … and rendered me completely helpless.” (From Autocracy to Integration by Lucien D Benichou, Orient Longman 2000, Page 237).

MIM was proscribed and Razvi was jailed. He was released only in 1957 after giving an undertaking that he would migrate to Pakistan within forty-eight hours of his release. On the eve of his departure to Pakistan, he convened a meeting of the influential Muslims of Hyderabad and requested anyone of them to take over the command of the MIM. When none was ready to accept the succession of this banned party which portrayed the Nizam as a symbol of political and cultural rights of the Muslim community, an affluent cleric and lawyer Maulana Abdul Wahid Owaisi, the grandfather of Asaduddin voluntarily accepted the offer. Rizvi immediately proposed his name as president of the MIM which was seconded by the participants.

The gesture of Owaisi in accepting the leadersip of MIM was seemingly a reflection of his loyalty to both Nizam and Rizvi. Although, his status in Nizam administration is not much known but his gratuitous nod to Rizvi offer made him the leader of the restive Hyderabadi Muslims in general and particularly those of the Arab origin in particular. Since MIM was a banned organisation – surprisingly, Wahed gave a new name to MIM as All India MIM (AIMIM). He accepted the Indian Constitution but kept his party perpetually under the shadow of Nizam, Rizvi and the MIM.

Since the re-birth of the AIMIM, the restive and aggressive character of its leaders shows that the party has not yet reconciled with the democratic reality of the country and continues to nurse the deep rooted Islamist design and hatred of Qasim Rizvi. Therefore, even after the end of Nizam rule and migration of Rizvi to Pakistan; the Muslims of the region and wealthy section of them particularly with Arab origin under the umbrella of AIMIM remained restive as they lost their dominant positiion in the State.

Against the backdrop of the discussion, the speech of Asaduddin Owaisi for inclusion of a chapter of Nizam does not appear to be in a vacuum. He is still not ready to unload the mental burden of Nizam rule when he portrays “the generous contributions of Nizam to a large number of temples in and outside his state” but forgets the carnage of the innocent majority population of this State by the Razakars under the patronage of Nizam without which the chapter on him will not be complete. He remembers the contribution of Nizam to Hindu temple but forgot it when his party raised strong protest against some addition and alteration in the Mahalaxmi temple adjacent to the Char Minar in Hyderabad.

Raising the issue of glorifying the former ruler, Owaisi only pursues the communal polarisation for his self seeking political ambition. Will he like that the people of this region to re-visit the incident of brutal attack of Razakars on the majority population of Telangna when Nizam was its ruler?

Owaisi must try to understand that Nizam was a “faithful ally” of the British and had neither supported the revolt of 1857 nor the Quit India Movement 1942 and accordingly enjoyed the favour of the colonial power. Thus, inclusion of chapter on glorification of Nizam in Telangna school syllabus would be an insult to the sacrifice of the people of the former state of Hyderabad during its merger with Indian Union. They will never forget the violent, aggressive and communal face of the pre-merger MIM and its Islamic force Razakars commanded by Qasim Rizvi under the patronage of Nizam.

In fact the Nizam affair is no more an issue after the merger of Hyderabad with Indian Union either for Telangna, or from any national or international point of view. Nehru wrote to Sardar Patel in his letter from Paris dated 27 October, 1948, in the context of the accession of Hyderabad.: “My visits to London and Paris have helped me not only to understand the international situation a little better but also and more specially the position of India in relation to it… Both Hyderabad and Kashmir have troubled people a lot here (Paris which was temporary headquarters of UNO then) and in London. It is recognised, of course, that the Hyderabad affair is over from international point of view. It is very fortunate that we could dispose of it rapidly. Otherwise reactions to it would have been very much adverse to us as it is difficult to explain everything…”  (http://deshgujarat.com/2008/04/21/sardar-patel-and-hyderabad-hindi-video…).

Perhaps Nehru didn’t visualise that even after the initial set back, the loyalists of Nizam under the banner of AIMIM will carry forward the restive, violent, aggressive and communal legacy of Nizam and his razakars due to the support of the ‘secular’ parties in the country. Since AIMIM has been an ally of the Nehruvian Congress in the state and also in UPA, it took advantage of its support. The people of the country has nothing to do with the legacy of Nizam and therefore, the party leaders must accept the secular and democratic spirit of the country and also dispose off  Nizam and Rizvi as was done  by Nehru in his letter to Sardar Patel.

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Robert Amsterdam of Amsterdam & Partners LLP announced Friday the formation of a new independent campaign to hold Thai officials accountable in foreign jurisdictions.

Among the objectives of the new movement are to bring criminal charges against the coup leadership and those responsible for the 2010 Bangkok massacre, as well as pursue targeted sanctions to deliver accountability and justice for the victims. The campaign will be conducted on a pro bono basis, completely independently from any active political figure or party in Thailand.

Robert Amsterdam

“In the face of horrific repression under the current coup government, we must not abandon the effort to apply consequences to those who violate human rights and those who have torn apart Thailand’s fragile democracy,” Amsterdam said. “We view this as a matter of historical importance – only when we see these elites charged and sanctioned for their crimes can there be any hope of restoring rule of law and representative government in Thailand.”

Amsterdam & Partners LLP was first retained in April of 2010 by the former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to defend the rights of the Red Shirt pro-democracy movement, including an application before the International Criminal Court (ICC) following the devastating Bangkok massacres which resulted in the killing of more than 90 unarmed citizens by the Thai military.

However following a military coup last May which toppled the elected government, conditions for human rights have sharply deteriorated, and the engagement between Robert Amsterdam and former Prime Minister Thaksin has concluded, said Amsterdam & Partners LLP in a statement.

“We are grateful to Khun Thaksin for the opportunity to become involved in these issues, and wish him the best in his endeavours. Our focus now will be to pursue alliances with civil society, NGOs, and other politically independent groups to continue advocating for the rights of citizens through all available avenues. Our commitment is unwavering,” Amsterdam said.

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India signed a nuclear and defence deal with Russia during the President Putin’s recent visit to New Delhi. India also concluded agreements with Japan, the US and China in an important display of its traditional diplomacy undergoing nuanced change under Prime Minister Modi.

By Santosh Sharma Poudel*

Since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister, India’s foreign policy has gathered some pace. His visits to Australia, Japan and the United States brought the relationships with these countries to new heights with several economic and defence agreements. He had visited the three states proposed by a former Japanese prime minister to form an ‘arc of freedom’ democratic alliance. While the pacts with Australia were mostly socio-economic, the agreements with Japan and the US covered economic and security interests.

Japan pledged economic assistance worth US$35 billion over five years and culminated with the Tokyo Declaration of India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership by which the two sides agreed to enhance their defence and strategic cooperation. Similarly, PM Modi’s visit to the US was a welcome reset in the relations strained by the Devyani Khobragade issue and the reversal on the US ban for Modi for his alleged involvement in Gujarat in 2002. President Obama and PM Modi resolved to broaden their cooperation in various fields including defence, intelligence, and space exploration among others. President Obama was invited to be the Chief Guest for India’s Republic Day, symbolising the mutual regard of the oldest democracy and the largest.

Relations with non-democratic states

Nevertheless India’s foreign policy is not confined by the extension of pan-Americanism or democratic values. During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi recently, India and Russia signed important nuclear and defence agreements. PM Modi referred to Russia as the ‘most important defence partner’. During the visit, India agreed to purchase 12 Russian-nuclear reactors to address India’s energy needs. They also agreed to manufacture advanced Russian military helicopters in India, which showed the close security relations between them, despite American displeasure at the timing of the deal.

The close defence relationship between Russia and India reflects India’s reliance on Russia for advanced military weapons for the most part during the Cold War. Even during the recent Crimean crisis, India was one of the first countries that was supportive of Russian annexation of Crimea and ‘understood’ its position.

Similarly, India attempted to court China as a potential investor and market during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to New Delhi in September. In addition to pledges by China to invest US$20 billion in India in five years to link the ‘world’s factory’ to the ‘world’s back office’, their talks included civil-nuclear cooperation.

India’s traditional foreign policy parameter

India’s traditional foreign policy was based on two major pillars: non-alignment and its belief in its potential to be a major power itself. When the Cold War broke out, it led the cause of the non-aligned countries. India brought to the fore both tenets in its foreign policy.

Firstly, India did not want to be ‘aligned’ to either the then Soviet Union or the US. Secondly, India was willing to lead the non-aligned movement, partly because it believed that it was a major power itself. It took a long time to realise the Indian potential, and only since late 1990s India was seen as a ‘potential major power’ in the making.

In this context, India has sought to diversify its security relations, to avoid any dependency on a single nation. It signed a civilian nuclear deal with the US in 2008, and expanded its security and defence relations with other democratic countries such as the US and Japan. Similarly, it has maintained strong security links with Russia. Within the context of an assertive and rising China, with which India fought a war over disputed territory, many Indian analysts believed that a democratic alliance of India-Japan-US-Australia would be the way forward.

However India has not considered ‘aligning’ itself with states holding democratic values. While relations with the democratic countries have improved, this has not come at the cost of relations with China or Russia.

India’s recent foreign policy under Modi shows that it continues to possess major elements of its traditional strategy. It still seeks to maintain an independent and sovereign foreign policy devoid of alignment and sees itself as a major-global power. Its foreign policy, however, is no longer guided by socialistic idealism seen in the early years of independence. India has become an aspiring pragmatic state, believing that it is on the way to gaining global status, if it has not already done so.

A welcome change

After being rather passive on the foreign policy front due to various domestic issues, India has finally got a strong government with a charismatic leader in PM Modi. He has pursued foreign policy in a more assertive manner during his short stint, and based his policies on economic pragmatism.

It is also a clear sign that India is not constrained by democratic values or thoughts of alignment. It still has the flavour of its historical guideline but packaged in new ways to meet its challenges ahead.

Those nuanced changes in its external relations reflect India’s aspiration to engage all sides based on pragmatism rather than ideology. The growing confidence of India and its willingness to stand on its own also gives more credence to the notion of the 21st century being an Asian century which it will help to shape.

*Santosh Sharma Poudel is a PhD candidate at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

The post Modi’s Foreign Policy: Nuanced Non-Alignment? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US President Barack Obama issued Friday an Executive Order authorizing additional sanctions on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the White House said.

According to the White House, the Executive Order “is a response to the Government of North Korea’s ongoing provocative, destabilizing, and repressive actions and policies, particularly its destructive and coercive cyber attack on Sony Pictures Entertainment.”

The Executive Orders authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to impose sanctions on individuals and entities associated with the Government of North Korea, the White House said.

“We take seriously North Korea’s attack that aimed to create destructive financial effects on a U.S. company and to threaten artists and other individuals with the goal of restricting their right to free expression,” the White House said in a statement.

“As the President has said, our response to North Korea’s attack against Sony Pictures Entertainment will be proportional, and will take place at a time and in a manner of our choosing. Today’s actions are the first aspect of our response,” according to a White House press secretary statement.

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History is a fine mirror, particularly among the war opponents where ‘cognitive dissonance’ plagued them deep all along. Thirteen years ago, US pre-attack psy-warfare effort depicted a shirtless herculean-looking American GI, kneeling and wielding his knife as if US was about to mow down their opponents in a blow. Taliban along with Al-Qaida were dancing to celebrate, on seeing another prey rushing for the trap called Afghanistan on the heels of the Soviets. No one in US DoD bothered to take cue from history that remains kind to Afghans when they are ready to spill their own as well as others blood. Time scale means nothing to them.

About 150 years ago, the British Army supported by native forces in the Indian sub-continent invaded Afghanistan. Several battles during First and Second Afghan War, won and lost by both sides, made it absolutely clear that Afghans, fanatically loyal to their soil, could not be ruled by the alien forces. At one point of time, General Robert, recommending swift withdrawal, wrote to the Viceroy of India, less they (Afghans) see of us, the better, even though he had won the battle near Kabul. That was an era of extensive colonization when European major powers were competing to secure maximum territories in Asia, Africa and South America. It inspired Lenin to compile a table, proving that the European powers’ wealth was directly proportionate to the volume of territorial expansion overseas. He even proved that their number of banks could be accommodated in the same thumb rule. Britain was certainly a Super Power, embroiled in a conflict on the western borders of its Indian Empire. The people who stuck out to challenge its might were again Afghans.

The British Empire finally chose to stay put at the line which later became known as Durand Line (named after Sir Mortimer Durand), now separating Pakistan and Afghanistan. In the Great Game of 19th and 20th Century, Czarist Russia was rushing south through Central Asia but opted to halt at present Afghan northern borders by 1885. Some critics resented royal reluctance of Great Britain to advance West and North West to face Russia along River Oxus and termed it as its ‘masterly inactivity.’ Why US war wizard could not see the futility of their Afghan war? They did inflict heavy losses on Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and sweeping victory over conventional Taliban forces structure during Phase-1, the opening assault on Kandahar but for the remaining period, Taliban insurgency could not be flushed out even by employing massive technologically superior forces, touching a peak of 140,000 troops (International Security Assistance Force: ISAF) of which US had the major share. Some see even Al-Qaeda’s thinning out from Afghanistan as their superior strategic orientation to reappear in Middle East (Iraq in particular), where US reversals were obvious, to banish its forces from Iraq. Discovering that attack on Iraq could not achieve its objective of reconstructing Iraq, US had second thought and announced ‘mission accomplished’.

While the US public remained highly skeptic of US claims, the media did give it a breather by portraying a very lucrative forces’ diversionary destination to be pivoted in Asia-Pacific. Encapsulated within the same design, a charming slogan branded as ‘Afghan Surge’ emerged which in fact amounted to reinforcing a failure that the strategists always warn against to be lured in to this option ever on the battlefield. The entire maneuver was aimed at quelling the domestic criticism about failure in Iraq and managing damage control of the myth of US military might invincibility. Close to withdrawal from Iraq, some labeled it retreat, even George W. Bush acknowledged Iraq mistake, not mentioning some loud and similar comments made by US military commanders.

When the US winds up its mission from Afghanistan along with NATO allies, there are rival claims to victory from each side. If one grants victory to US/ISAF, one needs to focus at the flag lowering ceremony when the onus of responsibility to defend Afghanistan has been shifted to Afghan Army with US residual force of around 10,000 staying in Southern Afghanistan for ‘Resolute Support’. For any power of significance, it is natural to defend retreat that Taliban have claimed to force on ISAF. The impact of left-behind ISAF force in Afghanistan is destined to dilution when simple arithmetic is made the basis of vetting its efficacy. Note that if 140,000 troops could not flush Taliban, how a fourteen times smaller force would keep Afghan Army energized to restore peace in Afghanistan. As expected, Taliban attacks when ISAF forces were thinning out, in the final phase within last three months have become more frequent and deadlier. Ben Tufft of ‘The Independent’ reported, “The ceremony held to mark the end of the Nato mission in Afghanistan was held in secret due to bomb threats, prompting critics to question whether the allies’ objectives in the country have been met.”

One sees another small dance party among Taliban who would swoop on the left-behind garrison, making their logistics a critical issue. The force is likely to remain virtually bound to the heavily defended parameters of the garrison and yet face causalities.
The kind of odds that John Kerry negotiated to let a system of governance emerge in Afghanistan in the wake of questionable general elections was remarkable but the sooner he left, Afghanistan remained vulnerable to two leaders’, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, wrangling for greater influence. As the Afghan society is fiercely divided on the ethnic basis, it is likely that the power brokering intensifies when both would muster their ethnic supporters in the field as show of muscles. In other words, ‘Pukhtoons’ and ‘Tajiks’ standoff would be imminent while Taliban would hammer both.

There is a bleak but possible scenario that President Ashraf Ghani, because of his ‘Pukhtoon’ antecedent manages to bring Taliban to the dialogue table and interestingly that hypothesis is the only hope for any recovery in Afghanistan.

US, Allies and their public would sound far removed from the reality if they stick to their state of denial by refusing to accept that victory has remained elusive, costing them trillions of dollar and thousands of young soldiers. Similarly Taliban claim to victory would also sound absurd even though they sacrificed seven times more of their militants. Had the terrain advantage and civil population shield not been available to them, they would have been massacred by the superior ISAF forces. If on Taliban side, achieving victory over NATO forces was beyond their prowess because of incompatible military potentials; their opponents were bound by their own publics’ opinion and war ethics to fight Taliban with surgical precision, once in a while violation notwithstanding. Therefore such conflicts, like the conventional wars, cannot be measured with ultimate clear yardstick called ‘victory.’ At best, NATO can boast to have introduced reforms in a manner that have diluted wide spread Taliban’s war making appeal to Afghan masses to some extent.

Hubertus Hoffmann sounds over-optimistic, maintaining, “For me the glass is about three quarters full. The Taliban lack the support of the people; have no viable vision for the future of the country. More bombs drive just the people away from them. The Afghan Army and police are fighting considerably well.”

On the other hand, Taliban can claim to have proved hard nuts for ISAF forces by resisting superior forces and surviving through conduct of shrewd guerilla warfare. When ‘victory’ slogan appears as misnomer, one hopes that the two sides would pay heed to what Benjamin Franklin had said long ago, “The things that hurt, instruct.” World now expects the native parties in Afghanistan also to have mercy and cobble up effective governance for the emancipation of their future generations.

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