By C. Raja Mohan

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Kathmandu and Dhaka in the last few days underlined, once again, the emergence of Beijing as the most important external economic power in the subcontinent.

India’s challenge of coping with China’s growing economic weight in the subcontinent is far more demanding than dealing with its military power. The problem of closing the military gap with China is not a hard one to think through. It involves accelerating India’s own military modernisation, developing a strategy to deter Beijing’s potential aggression on the long-disputed border and increasing security partnerships with other great powers.

New Delhi is certainly conscious that Beijing’s rising economic profile in the subcontinent will have major long-term consequences for the regional balance of power between India and China. Yet, there is no way Delhi can exclude Beijing, the world’s second-largest economic power, from its own calculus for accelerating India’s economic development. If the Manmohan Singh government sent out ambiguous signals on economic cooperation with China, Narendra Modi appears determined to advance the bilateral economic cooperation with Beijing.

Modi is eager to mobilise Chinese technology, capital and organisational skills to promote his agenda of infrastructure development and manufacturing at home. Delhi does not have the experience of operating at two levels – competing with Beijing for strategic influence and, at the same time, strengthening economic cooperation with China. This problem gets magnified at the regional level.

Bridge States

India has long objected to military cooperation between China and South Asian nations. However, Delhi is in no credible position to oppose commercial cooperation between Beijing and its subcontinental neighbours, because it sees China as a major economic partner at the bilateral and global level.

To make matters more complicated, Beijing is not seeking exclusive bilateral economic engagement with India’s neighbours, but wants Delhi to be an active regional partner through trilateral, quadrilateral and multilateral mechanisms.

Beijing does not present itself as a rival to Delhi in South Asia, but as a great power that is willing to deal with everyone in the region, including Delhi, with a positive approach, ready to patiently work through the regional contradictions.

That is precisely what Wang was doing in Nepal and Bangladesh last week. As he announced new steps to boost China’s economic cooperation with these countries, Wang welcomed the growing bilateral cooperation among Nepal, Bangladesh and India. He also pointed to Beijing’s own expanding economic engagement with Delhi.

In Kathmandu, the Chinese foreign minister once again talked about the possibilities for trilateral cooperation across the Himalayas between China, India and Nepal. The idea gains new traction amid Chinese President Xi Jinping’s focus on building modern silk roads all across the Eurasian landmass and between the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

In Dhaka, Wang talked about China’s eagerness to move forward on the proposal to develop the BCIM corridor, which Beijing put on the table some years ago. The corridor will connect China, Myanmar, Bangladesh and India. In Kathmandu, Wang outlined his vision for Nepal as a bridge between China and India. In Dhaka, he offered to help Bangladesh develop as a hub between southwestern China, Southeast Asia and India.

Joint projects

If China is smothering the region with its version of the power of positive thinking, India appears paralysed by the fear of transborder economic collaboration with Beijing. Delhi’s security establishment, which continues to think of the subcontinent as India’s exclusive sphere of influence, has a hard time imagining its neighbours as commercial bridges to China.

Delhi’s economic decision-makers, with their inward orientation, appear to have no capacity to think of a strategy for regional integration in partnership with China, or any other great power. The foreign office’s conservatism on China means that its current focus is on fobbing off Chinese proposals through public silence and private rejection. The best it can come up with is to establish an official study group that can spin out the Chinese proposals for a few more years.

India is quite unready to adjust its mental maps to the structural shift in its regional environment. The longer India takes to adapt, the greater the negative consequences for India’s regional standing will be.

It is really up to Modi to press the system to come up with a comprehensive strategy to deal with the opportunities and challenges presented by the rise of Chinese economic power on India’s frontiers. In the interim, Modi must agree to take up one or two joint commercial projects with China in Nepal and Bangladesh to test out the prospects for a regional partnership with Beijing.

*The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi and a Contributing editor for ’The Indian Express’

Courtesy: The Indian Express, January 03, 2015

The post Beijing’s South Asia – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Amit Cowshish

At a conclave held in New Delhi on 12-13 December 2014, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said that the government is working on legalising defence agents and middlemen and that a clear policy will be in place by January 2015.1

The statement is somewhat puzzling since a policy on Indian agents of foreign suppliers already exists. It was notified by the Ministry of Defence vide Letter No. 2250-A/JS(O)/89 dated 17 April 1989 based on the Office Memorandum No. F.23(1)-E.II(A)/89 dated 31 January 1989 issued by the Ministry of Finance.

More than 12 years later, the Ministry of Defence notified another set of supplementary instructions (No. 3(2)/PO(Def)2001 dated 2 November 2001) to regulate

“representational arrangements through a system of registration; categorical and open declaration by the foreign suppliers of the services to be rendered by their Authorized Representatives\Agents; and the remuneration payable to them by way of fees, Commission or any other method.”

Apparently, these instructions seem to have gone into oblivion, so much so that the standard clause on agents and agency commission in defence contracts also do not seem to be completely in sync with these guidelines.

Any new policy, even if it is a rehash of existing instructions, should be in sync with contemporary realities and requirements. To do that, a number of issues need to be addressed, beginning with the standardization and definition of the terms that best define the activities that could be undertaken. Terms like ‘representative’, ‘agent’, ‘middleman’, ‘stockist’, ‘lobbyist’, ‘consultant’, ‘advisor’, and many more, have different connotations – some even pejorative. The resultant confusion could make it easy for unscrupulous elements to circumvent policy directives.

The second question is whether an individual could also serve as a ‘representative’ – a term that subsumes all other terms in this article – or the ‘representative’ has to be a firm, and also, whether a company could engage more than one individual or firm for different jobs. These days a number of individuals and firms specialize in and provide a wide range of services to foreign and Indian companies. The 2001 instructions give the impression that a company could engage more than one person or firm, but this is only an inference one could draw from one of the paragraphs of those instructions. It would be desirable to remove the ambiguity on this count.

The third question concerns the nature of the relationship between the company and the representative(s) it engages. The existing instructions seem to view the relationship between the two as that of an employer and employee. This is evident from the provision that the “accreditation granted to (the) Authorized Representatives\Agents shall be valid subject entirely to the non-infringement by him as well as his Authorized Representatives\ Agents, of the terms of accreditation.”

In fact, according to the existing instructions, the company that wishes to engage a representative is responsible for providing information about the representative(s) and obtaining accreditation on a case-to-case basis. This places an additional responsibility on the company with regard to the conduct of the individual(s)/firm(s) it engages without any control over the latter. This kind of implied master-servant relationship may also possibly have some tax implications for the companies.

This aspect of the existing instructions needs to be reconsidered. It makes little sense to hold companies liable for the misconduct of the MoD-accredited individual(s)/firm(s) they engage for a limited period to carry out specific tasks in relation to a specific contract within the ambit of the policy. The absence of an employer-employee relationship does not mean that companies can escape the legal consequences if any transgression on the part of their representatives is discovered at any stage and the companies themselves are found to be complicit in such transgression.

The offending companies could be pinned down under the provisions of the Pre-Contract Integrity Pact (PCIP) if the transgression comes to light after the commencement of the tendering process or through a clear policy on debarring and penalising them if such transgression comes to light at the pre-tendering stage. Likewise, the offending representative(s) could also be made to lose their accreditation, apart from facing legal consequences for their misconduct.

The fourth question concerns the procedure for accreditation. The existing provision relating to accreditation on a case-to-case basis needs to be reconsidered. There is no reason why this process should be unique to each contract. The Ministry of Defence could institute a system of granting accreditation to individual(s)/firm(s) directly. This will provide enough time for the Ministry to verify the antecedents of the applicants and the companies will have a choice to engage any accredited representative without having to undertake the responsibility of obtaining accreditation in individual cases. The representatives could function in the same way as the Customs House Agents (CHA) function under a license to facilitate import and export clearances at customs stations.

The fifth question concerns the scope of activities that could be undertaken, as well the activities that will not be permitted to be undertaken under any circumstances, by the representatives. The existing instructions recognize that involvement of representatives would “enhance transparency levels, provide the Service HQ with additional information about latest advances in sophisticated combat and non-combat technology” and that they could be “of assistance in trial evaluation of the systems, price negotiations, (enhancing) the quality of after-sales service, resolving performance and warranty issues” as well as promotion of products.

More functions and activities could be added in consultation with the associations of the foreign companies operating in India and the Indian industry associations to make the scope as elaborate as possible. The new policy could also contain a negative list of activities that will amount to breach of terms of accreditation and lead to punitive action. This list could be aligned with the provisions of the PCIP, thus obviating the need to specify in each contract the scope of work to be performed by the representative(s), as required by the existing instructions.

There are a number of activities, from obtaining responses to letters addressed to the Ministry of Defence and the Services Headquarters to arranging meetings with the officials concerned for resolution of the problems that a company might be facing, which need to be added to the list of permissible activities under the rubric of ‘liaison’. In the normal course also, there is a lot of information that the companies need in connection with their dealings with the Ministry of Defence. It should be perfectly legitimate for the authorized representative(s) to carry out such activities within the bounds of propriety. This may, however, require some systemic changes in the Ministry of Defence, which is not known to respond easily to written communications and is generally impervious to requests from the companies for a meeting.

Lastly, the existing instructions have a provision, according to which “in all purchases effected through the Authorized Representative\Agent the scale of commission payable shall be as per the guidelines approved from time to time.” No such guidelines seem to have ever been laid down, probably because it is virtually impossible to do so. The Ministry of Defence needs to reconsider the need for such micro-management of the relationship between companies and their representatives.

It is necessary to adopt a pragmatic approach while framing a new policy that makes it simpler for individuals and firms to function as representatives of the foreign and even Indian companies without compromising on the need for probity in defence contracts. This will help India alleviate itself from the 142nd position where it presently stands in the global index of ease of doing business.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India

1. The event, Agenda Aaj Tak, was held at New Delhi’s Hotel Taj Mahal on 12-13 December 2014. See the report “Agenda Aaj Tak: Working on legalising defence agents and middlemen, says Manohar Parrikar,” Link : http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/manohar-parrikar-defence-minister-legalising-agents-middlemen-agenda-aaj-tak/1/406539.html

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/OfAgentsandAgencyCommissioninDefence_acowshish_311214.html

The post India: Of Agents And Agency Commission In Defence – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

As the year 2014 passed away, there is a ray of hope for the families of journalist-victims sighted from India’s neighboring country. The amazing news came from Nepal, where a court convicted and sentenced five perpetrators involved in the killing of a reputed Nepali journalist. In an unprecedented verdict pronounced in December, the district court of Dailekh in western Nepal had punished at least five former ultra-left cadres for the crime of torturing and later burying Dekendra Raj Thapa alive.

The abduction and subsequent killing of Thapa, a fearless journalist based in Dailekh, resulted in massive hue and cries in the country. The respected journalist, who was then working for the state-owned Radio Nepal and Nepal Samacharpatra newspaper faced the brutalities of some cadres belonged to UCPN-Maoist (then CPN-M). Thapa, who went to a village apparently for resolving some community issues there, was abducted on June 26, 2004 and tortured till they buried him alive on August 11, 2004 in Dwari.

The Maoists officially owned up the responsibility for the murder declaring that Thapa was executed for spying against their outfit. Just prior to Thapa, another journalist (Gyanendra Khadka, who worked for the government news agency Rastriya Samachar Samiti) was also killed by the Maoists in Jyamire in eastern Nepal.

India’s tiny Himalayan neighbour witnessed the uprising of Maoist fighters between 1996 to 2006 spreading an undeclared civil war across the country that resulted in the killing of over 15,000 individuals and displacing nearly 1,50,000 people. Numerous allegations were poured against the Maoist rebels terming them as merciless killers of conscious citizens including the brave journalists with the accusations like anti-revolutionary to spying for the authority.

Though the court convicted Lakshiram Gharti, Bir Bahadur KC, Nirak Ghartimagar, Harilal Punmagar and Jaya Bahadur Shahi, four other accused former Maoists (namely Bam Bahadur Khadka Mukti, Bam Bahadur Khadka Arun, Keshav Khadka and Bhakti Ram Lamichhane) are still absconding.

Thapa’s widow Laxmi Shrestha, who filed a case against the local Maoist rebels on 28 August 2008, reportedly expressed happiness at the court verdict, but reiterated her wish to see the others too brought to justice.

Following the Laxmi’s official complaint, the police dared to arrest five out of nine of the accused Maoists on 5 January 2013. Inspector Binod Sharma showed extreme courage to investigate the matter and picked up Lakshiram Gharti and four others suspecting their role in the torture and brutal murder of Thapa.

It was definitely not an easy task for the police to continue the investigation as the high-placed elements (read Maoist ideologues turned lawmakers) opposed the move. According to Nepali media outlets, the then Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai (second-in-command to Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda in CPN-Maoist) wanted the police to go slow in the investigation. Many important witnesses to the murder of Thapa turned hostile out of fear from the Maoists.

Nepali Times, a popular newspaper of the country, editorialized the issue clearly stating that the ‘brutal murders of unarmed village elders, elected grass-root leaders, social workers, teachers, businessmen, anyone who don’t agree with the rebels or refuse to pay donations are acts of cowardice’.

“When a movement has to resort to such unconscionable cruelty it means it has lost the power of argument. Using such brutality to impose one’s will is not only immoral, it is also an incorrect interpretation of revolutionary dialectics,” said the editorial of Nepali Times (27 August – 02 September 2004 issue).

It also added that ‘by killing Dekendra Thapa …..Maoists showed that they don’t even bother with politically-correct rhetoric anymore.

Their Talibanesque threat to chop off the hands of other journalists who refuse to toe the party line is further proof of a dangerously fanatical streak, asserted the editorial. The media persons under the banner of Federation of Nepali Journalists with supports from the Committee to Protect Journalists and International Press Institute had extended all possible supports to Laxmi, who kept up the pressure to punish the criminals involved with her husband’s murder.

Now after the judgment, the Nepal media fraternity has termed the development as the harbinger of hope for the victim-families, but they maintained that the prison-term for each convict was very short (maximum two years) and those ‘should/could have been harder’.

Kamala Sarup, coordinator of a media watch group named Peace Media Research Center admitted that Nepali journalists were subjected to threats, arrests and other untenable actions by the Maoists.

Expressing disappointment that the murders of journalists often went unpunished, Sarup also added, “There must be no impunity for the killers of journalists and media workers. The deliberate targeting of journalists by those who seek to prevent the media from exposing their activities represents a worrying trend in Nepal.”

However, a senior Maoist leader based in Kathmandu, who wanted anonymity, asserted that the court verdict was against the spirit of peace agreement with the government. He cautioned that the verdict might push Nepal into more conflicts in the days to come.

Appreciations were also poured from a northeast India based media body towards the police and judiciary of Nepal, which has transformed into a multi party democracy from the monarchy, for booking the former Maoist rebels against the homicide of a journalist under the law of the land.

“Assam in particular and India as a whole have lost a good number of media persons to various cruel elements including the so-called revolutionary groups. Should not we expect justice for the killing of journalists in our region,” said Rupam Barua, president of Journalists’ Forum Assam (JFA), an active organization of working
journalists.

Assam has lost a number of acclaimed journalists in the last few decades (from Kamala Saikia to Parag Kumar Das), where the bereaved families are still waiting for justice. In most cases the perpetrators were proved to be the armed group activists, who later joined in the peace talks with the government to escape legal
penalties.

“The general perception in our region emerges that once the insurgent leaders start engaging themselves with the peace process, they get the impunity against all their past misdeeds automatically,” added the JFA president asserting that it must be challenged by one and all with an aim to punish the culpable members of any terror outfit irrespective of their involvement with the peace talks.

The post Convicting Murderers Of Journalists: Nepal’s Way – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The balance sheet for 2014 and the prospects for 2015 provide us with a complex panorama of negative and positive outcomes. In most cases the advances, are not earth-shattering but open possibilities for further progress. The negative developments, however, have greater and more threatening systemic outcomes.

We will proceed in a telegraphic fashion to outline the positive and negative developments in 2014 and their real and potential symbolic and substantive impacts. In the second part of the essay we will sketch out some of the most important events and the way in which the positive and negative outcomes of 2014 will play out in 2015.

Positive Developments in 2014

While most leftist and progressive writers have emphasized the negative events of 2014, a more nuanced analysis will reveal ten important positive outcomes.

(1) The revelations that the US National Security Agency was engaged in a world-wide long-standing and continuous spying operations against hundreds of millions of Americans, allies and adversaries, citizens and leaders provoked deep distrust and questioning of Washington’s claims of upholding democracy and respecting the sovereignty of nations. The revelations led to greater vigilance among countries and domestic demands for reform.

(2) The US Senate revelations that the CIA engaged in widespread and repeated torture of political suspects, documented the growth of a police state apparatus and provoked a world-wide demand to prosecute prominent US leaders for crimes against humanity.

(3) The growth of economic, political and military ties between Russia and China augurs a rebalancing of global power – fostering a multi-polar world, which can act as a deterrent to future western imperial aggression.

(4) China’s President Xi’s deepening anti-corruption campaign has led to the arrest of leading business and political leaders and has encouraged popular denunciations and demands for ‘good government’ and greater attention to social demands.

(5) President Putin’s support for the Eastern Ukraine resistance to the Kiev puppet regime and for Crimean separatists, and his moves to restrict and, in some cases, prosecute criminal behavior among oligarchs has successfully countered Western efforts to encircle, undermine and revert Russia to a vassal state. US-NATO backed neo-liberals within Russia have been severely weakened Western sanctions may strengthen efforts to socialize the economy.

(6) The opening of a dialogue with Cuba, and Washington’s recognition that its half century blockade has only isolated the US in Latin America, is a step in the right direction. The increase in tourism and economic missions may increase demands for the end of the blockade.

(7) The growth and spread of the Boycott, Divest and Sanction (BDS)against

the Israeli occupation of Palestine has reached major trade unions, student and religious organizations ,which in turn has influenced numerous political leaders to recognize Palestine, overcoming massive opposition from the Presidents of the 52 Major American Jewish organizations in the US and their counterparts overseas.

(8) The Iranian – US peace and nuclear negotiations have lessened the prospect of an Israeli promoted regional war. The ongoing negotiations have led to some advances, mostly concessions by Iran, but, at least, have favored diplomacy over US military aggression.

(9) Latin America witnessed a near sweep by ‘left of center’ regimes against US backed ‘hard right’ neo-liberals, in Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, Uruguay, Ecuador and Bolivia. While these election outcomes will not in any way challenge capitalism or lead to the expropriation of the agro-mineral and financial elite, they do indicate a relative degree of independence from US militarist foreign policy. The election of President Santos in Colombia, and the defeat of the far right opposition candidate, allowed for the peace negotiations with the FARC, the popular insurgency, to proceed toward a definitive agreement.

(10) The widespread dissemination of multi-media recordings of prominent scientists testifying to and documenting the evidence demonstrating that the collapse of the World Trade Center could only be a controlled demolition and not a result of the plane crashes, has led to widespread calls for a new investigation of 9/11.

Negative Events in 2014

Major events and policies in 2014 which have had a profoundly negative effect on the prospects for peace and social justice are equally numerous.

(1) The US and EU installation of a puppet regime in the Western Ukraine (Kiev) and its conversion into an economic vassal state of the European Union and NATO outpost on Russia’s border is a major blow against democracy and boost to Ukrainian neo-fascist political leaders. The militarization of the Ukraine, as an adversary of Russia, threatens a global nuclear war.

(2) The military coup in Egypt and the violent purge, jailing and torture of elected officials and secular dissidents, ensures the return of US influence in North Africa and reinforces Israel’s blockade of Gaza and colonization over the West Bank. Food and transport subsidies were ended in accord with the IMF. In 2014 as a result of the military dictatorship’s pro-business policies, the Egyptian stock market index returned 30% to foreign and domestic speculators. Between the coup in mid-2013 to the end of 2014, the M5CI stock index of Egypt doubled.

(3) The US re-entry in the Iraq civil war, its air war in Syria to counter the advance of ISIS, and the decision to retain thousands of troops in Afghanistan means that the militarist policies of the past decade continue to define US foreign policy in the Middle East. Civilian casualties are mounting and the wars are showing no signs of ending. The devastation wrought by the US-NATO military intervention in Libya continues to provoke Islamic extremism and civilian flight.

(4) US repeatedly supported Israeli seizures and colonization of Palestinian land in the West Bank and Jerusalem and Israel’s savage murder of 2000 Palestinians and 5 billion dollar devastation of property in Gaza. Under the prodding of Zionist multi-billionaires and AIPAC, the US blocked the PLOs effort to gain UN membership via arm-twisting of African representatives in the Security Council.

(5) The President and Congress’s defense of NSA spying and CIA responsibility for torture has further weakened residual constitutional guarantees.

(6) The electoral victories by the hard right in the US legislative elections will present major problems in proceeding with peace negotiations with Iran, in ending the economic blockade of Cuba and lessening the Government’s purge of immigrants.

(7) The Ferguson protest against the police assassination of a young black man grew into a nationwide protest (“black lives matter”) against the police impunity and violence, and had all the makings of a popular movement to democratize the state. Instead the police officials and police unions launched a massive counter-attack and mobilization, defending police power, by exploiting the killing of two policemen in New York City by a deranged individual.

(8) The US success in imposing sanctions against Russia, with the backing of the European Union, the escalation of military exercises on Russia’s Baltic frontiers and in the Caucuses, threaten a nuclear confrontation.

(9) Washington’s promotion of Asian-Pacific economic pacts excluding China, the military base agreements with Japan, Australia and the Philippines, and the expansion of provocative air and sea surveillance of China’s coastlines, has dimmed any prospect that Washington is willing to accommodate China’s ascent as a world power.

(10) Economic policies continue to concentrate wealth in the upper 1%, while investment bankers escape jail sentences for on-going multi-billion dollar swindles and illicit operations, laying the bases for a new financial crisis.

Looking Toward the New Year

The prognosis for 2015 is not promising. For one thing the positive changes that took place in 2014 are not sustainable and will be under threat by the further rightward shift in US policy.

The likelihood is that the new rightwing majority in Congress will do everything possible to prevent the ending of the US economic blockade of Cuba. The powerful Israel power configuration in the Congress, mass media and in the Treasury will likely impose such onerous and unilateral demands on Iran as to undermine any meaningful agreement. In Israel far right neo-fascist parties are likely to take power, early in 2015, and accelerate the seizure and colonization of Palestinian land foreclosing any prospects of a negotiated agreement. The Zionist power configuration in Washington will guarantee continued US backing.

The Obama Administration, blinded by its success in securing EU support for sanctions against Russia, will push harder for a full scale economic war, in hopes of overthrowing the Putin government.

Incremental increases in troops and military commitments in South Asia, the Middle East and the Baltic regions will further heighten economic tensions with China and North Korea as well as Russia.

Obama will work with the new rightwing Congress to lower corporate taxes, to secure fast track passage of free trade agreements with Europe (excluding Russia) and Asia (excluding China) and to strengthen the arbitrary police power of the CIA, NSA, and FBI.

The police, organized and mobilized, will further subordinate civilian authorities, and launch a full scale war on the movement to curtail police violence against Afro-Americans. New York City’s giant pro-police show of force is a dress rehearsal for 2015.

The US economy will become even more lopsided, unequal and subject to financial volatility. Middle and working class Americans will become further alienated from the parties, legislature and executive – abstention will increase. However, many Americans will struggle to elect popular representatives in local elections and initiatives.

Overseas the US will fail to secure any decisive military victory in any major theater of war. ISIS in Syria and Iraq is likely to continue to occupy wide swaths of territory and to sustain a long term war. The Taliban will eventually surround the big cities and garrisons in which US advisers are holed up. Libya will continue to be a failed sate. The Ukraine will likely descend into economic bankruptcy. In southern Europe the left-socialist party SYRIZA will probably win the elections and attempt to impose a moratorium on debt payments and stimulate the economy. The neo-liberal political regimes in Italy, Spain and Portugal will continue to deteriorate. In France the Socialist regime’s embrace of a pro-business agenda will provoke major conflicts with trade unions and may fracture. The National Front may become the leading party, adopting positions on the Right (anti-immigrant) and Left (anti EU austerity). Leftist, populist and far –right parties and movements are likely to increase support in eight scheduled elections in the EU this year.

Turmoil, wars, and sanctions will lead to new political alignments. Just as Russia and China move to realign, so too, political forces in North and South America, Asia and the Middle East may find new de facto alignments. Saudi and Israel, Iran and Iraq, Turkey and Russia, Brazil and Venezuela…

Unpredictable challenges may emerge from minor and major players: Greece’s new Syriza government, by refusing to abide by Berlin’s austerity agenda, may provoke a major crises in the EU. China’s anti-corruption campaign could lead to heighten mass protests. North and South Korea may open long sought negotiations – excluding the US.

With the beginning of 2015 we enter a journey to the end of the night…

The post Looking Backward, Looking Forward: 2014 – 2015: OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Every year in December, Christians all around the world celebrate Christmas, marking the birth of Jesus Christ. In fact, when it comes to venerating Christ, most Christians tend to go out of the way and claim ownership of Christ. In Christianity, Jesus is viewed as the Son of God, or God Incarnate of sorts.

However, there is another religion that pays equal, if not greater, respect to Jesus, albeit in a slightly different manner.

Islam.

Unlike Christianity that began respecting Christ only after he had left this world, Islamic veneration of Jesus began during the lifetime of Prophet Muhammad himself.

Islam views Jesus as a Prophet of God, rather than Son of God. Jesus, or Isa as he is called in Arabic, is referred to by name in nearly 25 different verses of The Quran, with titles such as Messenger, Prophet, and even Messiah. In fact, all Muslim theologians view Jesus as a precursor to Prophet Muhammad.

So, is the fact that both Christianity and Islam respect Jesus enough to build bridges between the two religions? Or are the different versions a source of tension between adherents of the two faiths?

The Muslim Jesus

In Islam, Jesus is viewed as an icon of asceticism — a moral, spiritual and social role model. Ibn Arabi described Jesus as “the epitome of sainthood”, whereas al-Ghazali called him “the prophet of the soul”. Quite obviously, such descriptions are unique in their own way, and are different from the Christian narrative of a Divine Jesus.

In fact, even when Islam talks about the mother of Jesus, Virgin Mary, the focus is not on the miracle itself but on the miraculous birth. The Virgin Mary, or Maryam, holds an exalted spiritual position. Prophet Muhammad described her as one of the four “perfect” women in the history of humanity. She is also the only woman mentioned by name in The Quran, and there is an entire chapter named after her.

However, for Muslims, the Virgin Birth is not proof of the divinity of Jesus, but that of God Himself. Islam rejects the Christian concepts of Trinity, Crucifixion and Resurrection. According to Islamic narrative, Jesus was not crucified, but risen bodily to Heaven by God. This is where Islam and Christianity differ. To quote the Christian theologian Jonathan Bartley:

“There is a fundamental tension at the heart of interfaith dialogue that neither side wants to face up to, and that is that the orthodox Christian view of Jesus is blasphemous to Muslims and the orthodox Muslim view of Jesus is blasphemous to Christians.”

Another viewpoint in this context is the fact that Islamic conception of Jesus — devoid of divinity and outside the Trinity — is in sync with the beliefs of the earliest Jewish and Christian sects, primarily the Ebionites and Nazarenes, who viewed Jesus as Messiah but not as Son of God. As such, Muslim Jesus is the historical Jesus, as claimed by Cambridge academic John Casey:

“Islam’s Jesus is what Jesus might have been without St. Paul or St. Augustine or the Council of Nicaea.”

This can be traced back to the concept of Islam in itself: Islam, unlike other faiths, is an intellectual and moral acknowledgment of the Sovereignty of One True God, sans the additional mythological luggage.

Christianity and Islam: One God, Two Faiths

Amidst such differences, can it be possible to seek reasons for reconciliation between Christianity and Islam? After all, Jesus is indeed an esoteric part of Islamic faith and practice. Unlike Jewish tradition that by and large rejects Jesus, Islamic tradition has a place for Jesus at the very core of its devotion. This very idea of a Muslim Jesus is enough to fortify the resolve for peace between the two communities.

The Islamic view of Jesus is a salutary reminder of the times when both Christians and Muslims were more open to each other. In modern times, though, there is a tendency among Christians to claim ‘ownership’ over Jesus Christ — our saviour, our Lord Jesus, our Messiah, not yours! On the other hand, certain Muslims too have nowadays started viewing Jesus as an icon of private reverence — our version of Jesus is more respectful than yours!

However, such differences should not hinder the desire for co-existence. After all, interfaith dialogue starts from acceptance and recognition of existing differences. Furthermore, in spite of doctrinal differences between Christianity and Islam, there are many areas of significant overlap as well — both Christians and Muslims believe that before the end of the world, Jesus Christ will return and defeat the Antichrist (In Islam, referred to as Masih ad-Dajjal or The False Prophet).

As such, as 2014 comes to an end, let us hope that in the coming days, both Muslims and Christians learn to live together in peace, and the differences between the two faiths lead to informed arguments, not uninformed attacks. After all, this is what The Quran (29:46) has ordered us to do:

And argue not with the People of the Book (that is, Jews and Christians) unless it be in (a way) that is better, save with such of them as do wrong; and say: “We believe in that which hath been revealed unto us and revealed unto you; our Allah and your Allah is One, and unto Him we surrender.”

The post Jesus, A Muslim Prophet – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Shashwat Tiwari*

Global oil prices have come down considerably, Brent Crude, a pricing benchmark for more than half of the world’s oil, has dropped 45 percent this year and slid below US $60 a barrel this week for the first time since 2009. Most of the world’s oil is now selling for about US $56 to US $61 a barrel. But not all oil is created equal. In the Middle East, it’s cheaper to produce, at a cost of less than US $30 a barrel on average, while in the Arctic, producing a barrel costs US $78 on average. From Canada’s oil sands, it’s an average of US $74 a barrel. And because those are averages, some companies have costs that are higher — which means there could be drillers currently producing crude at a loss. In the US, the oil drilling boom is due largely to technologies like hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, used to force oil from shale formations deep underground. Producing this oil, costs an average of US $62 a barrel.

Recent falls in oil prices have altered the financial dynamics of oil extraction. Certain sources of oil entail lower costs than others. For example, conventional pumped oil extraction in high pressure onshore wells costs relatively little to set up and operate, whereas remote oil fields beneath icy seas require specialized equipment and override wages to locate and extract. When the oil price rises, more difficult oil fields become economically viable, when the price falls, the margins of extraction remove the viability of certain sources.

Hydraulic fracturing in the United States has provided an unexpected source of oil. However, it has contributed to an oversupply that could soon cause fracking production to shut down; as a matter of fact applications for new U.S. well permits dropped by nearly half last month. US oil production is also slowing down because of low oil prices. If prices collapsed to 2008 levels, when oil was fetching less than US $35 a barrel, drillers might be forced to take more drastic steps like shutting down production.

A major factor influencing the cost of extraction is the lifecycle of each type of oil source. Saudi wells last longer. There is more oil to pump within each cavity and so the cost of setting up that well can be written off over a longer period than the cost of setting up a fracking and horizontal drilling operation. A long-term producer can also write off the cost of distribution methods over a longer period. So if a new well can be built alongside existing roads and pipelines, that method will end up cheaper in the long run than fracking in remote and previously unexplored areas where a new pipeline or railroad infrastructure adds to setup costs.

American oil producers could just keep increasing capacity infinitely, because someone else would adjust their output to make room in the market. Prospects looked good initially for expansion because cutbacks in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production meant America could just keep taking a larger and larger share of the market.

But OPEC decided in late November to keep its output unchanged, in spite of a global supply surplus fed partly by production of shale oil in North America. Saudi Arabia led a group of Arab monarchies in opposing calls by Venezuela and other OPEC members, whose economies are threatened by the fall in oil prices, to cut output. OPEC supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil. Saudi Arabia’s plan to continue spending on social projects and security increases the likelihood that the world’s biggest oil exporter will stick with OPEC’s policy of maintaining output even as crude prices plunge. Oil has slumped more than 20 per cent since OPEC decided at a meeting last month to maintain its output quota. Iran has followed Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait in offering wider discounts for sales to Asia. U.S. producers are pumping crude at the fastest pace in three decades amid a shale boom.

A falling oil price punishes Russia’s economy and brings economic realities to calculations over whether to invest in further oil exploration in the Arctic. Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil exporter, had been gearing up for a major shift into hard-to-reach oil production as conventional oil runs low. Now these plans look harder to achieve. Backed by tax breaks and government incentives, new projects gather pace on Russia’s Pacific and Arctic shelves, as well as the vast Bazhenov shale oil formation in Western Siberia. However, slumping prices risk making these efforts unviable. In addition, sanctions have banned Western firms from supplying Russia with expertise or equipment for drilling hard-to-reach oil. Without Western financing and equipment, a low oil price is just one more piece of bad news for Russian oil and gas industry.

At the same time that oil supply surged, demand for oil dropped. China has maintained the illusion of growth over the past year by over-ordering raw materials. Now they need to absorb their stocks, which takes a large part of world demand for oil out of the market. Europe’s growth is stuttering, removing more demand. Economists calculate that for every 10 per cent drop in the price of oil, the world’s GDP will grow by 0.1 per cent. Evidently, the current falls in oil price will eventually correct the lack of demand in the market and supply and demand will return to equilibrium.

The global crash in crude prices is reverberating through the oil and gas industry, pressuring producers to curtail investment to protect profits and avoid cuts to dividend payments. Projects in the Canadian oil sands, offshore fields in Norway and drilling-intensive U.S. shale deposits are among the most vulnerable as oil prices come perilously close to production costs. The world’s largest oil companies have rarely spent so much for so little reward.

*The author is a Research Associate at the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Indian Navy or National Maritime Foundation. He can be reached at shashwatin2005@gmail.com.

The post Global Oil Slump: Challenges To Future Of Energy Sector – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Jan Agha Iqbal*

Despite 12 years of international involvement in the peace process, the situation in Afghanistan continues to present a depressing picture. This further substantiates the contention that the looming dangers of instability threatening international peace and security will remain unabated unless all the relevant aspects of this complex issue are adequately analyzed and addressed. Current modus operandi should take into account stabilizing factors, which are deeply rooted in the political, religious as well as social make-up of the people. The strategic geographical location and complicated social and geo-political formation of the country pose challenges to fully comprehend the Afghan scenario from the political, social and religious perspectives that can positively or negatively influence the situation.

The crucial role of moderate Islam through Sufism in Afghanistan has yet to be given due recognition and importance. Promotion of Sufism as enlightened and moderate form of religious thinking and behavior among the people would not only contribute towards restoring stability in the country but would also make religion a stabilizing factor.

The RAND Corporation, a US think tank, in its 2007 report titled “Building Moderate Muslim Networks”1 identified Sufis as moderate Muslim groups and potential allies that can play important role against violence and extremism.

Sufism with its message of non-violence and compassion not only promotes peaceful coexistence, diversity and tolerance but also has the potential and grass root support to replace extremist interpretations of Islam including those of Taliban and Al-Qaeda which form the core issue in the country. Due to its influencing teachings that dominate individual mindset and behavior in the traditional Afghan society, Sufism has been a source of inspiration for some social reforms. Besides providing moral incentives for reconciliation, Sufism can also contribute by putting spiritual and moral checks on corruption and killing of innocent people which destabilize the country.

The link between politicians and religious figures has been strong in Afghanistan. Time and again, this linkage resulted in formation of governments supported by clerics and religious leaders. This is probably due to the fact that religious identity in Afghanistan is deeply rooted in the society and its cultural and traditional practices. Manipulating this state of affairs, political games and conflicts have mostly involved religion. Although warfare has mainly been about geopolitics but religion has always been dragged into it.

The potential impacts of the moderate and non-violent teachings crystallized in the mystical philosophy of Sufi scholars can pave the way for future engagement that can help improve the security situation and social condition. The Sufi impact was instrumental in changing the course of events including changing governments, waging wars and forming and nurturing political and popular movements and uprisings. “Sufi leaders in Afghanistan claim that at least 60 percent of the country’s population is follower of Sufism, or at least support and respect Sufi values.”2 Teachings of some Sufi scholars and philosophers such as Jalaluddin Rumi, Mohammad Al-ghazali, Attar Nishapuri, Saadi Shirazi, Hafiz Nishapuri, Mohammad Iqbal, Sanayi Ghaznawi, and Abdullah Ansari have a an important role in shaping the lifestyle and personality of some people there.

In promoting moderation through Sufism in Afghanistan, following factors should be given special consideration:

Geographic and political aspects

Renowned poet and thinker Mohammad Iqbal,3 who was inspired by self-esteem and resistance of Afghans against colonialism and foreign occupation, described Afghanistan as “the heart of Asia”4 and maintained that stability and prosperity of Asia would hinge on the stability in Afghanistan. This geographic importance has made it more vulnerable to foreign interventions.

This in addition to the fact that around 6 million Afghans have been living outside Afghanistan since 1978 mainly in neighboring Pakistan and Iran because of the war against USSR and following civil wars. This situation proved to have huge impact on the religious beliefs and practices as well as the lifestyle of these refugees. Furthermore, this influence was stronger in case of those educated in those countries particularly Pakistani Madrassas that were instrumental in exporting extremism and terrorism to Afghanistan.

Religious perspective

Religious leaders are considered among the influential figures in the Afghan society that have the potential to affect the peace process both negatively and positively. The relations between the government and religious actors are complex and sometimes the influence of religious leaders challenge the very limited control of the government in the society. Most of the Afghan influential religious scholars both Sunni and Shiite, either subscribe to a variety of Sufi orders and schools or are inspired by their teachings.

The need for having rapprochement between religious and modern educated elites through engaging them in a dialogue and involving religious leaders in democratic processes, is apparent from the clash in the views of both systems. The new approach to reconcile modern democratic values with Islam is gaining support among the younger generation of religious scholars that needs to be built on. Sufism, however, enjoys a distinct status in both the systems that can largely contribute in the rapprochement process.

Sufism’s influence

The emergence and expansion of Sufism was an important development in the history of Islam. Through Sufism, Muslims seek self-purification and moral strength. Sufism is a nonviolent and peaceful way of approaching God and understanding the nature of the connection between God and the human. Sufism as an integral part of Islam enjoys considerable influence on both Sunni and Shia communities in Afghanistan, in both rural and urban areas, although it tends to be more widespread among Sunnis.

Sufis played significant role in forming social behavior and political structure in Afghanistan as well as in the struggle against foreign occupations including their determining role in organizing anti- colonial movements against the British rule in Afghanistan and in mobilizing the resistance fronts in the south in 1919 at the time of third Afghan-anglo war. Among the front runners in the anti-Soviet uprising of 1970 and the decade long resistance of 1980s were also many moderate Sufi leaders.

Conclusion

In the light of Sufism’s various manifestations in the times of war and peace Sufi politics can help stabilize Afghanistan and be used as against extremism. Moderate and progressive Sufi vision can help the process of modernization and stabilization and will impact tribal customs and traditions and different religious understandings to reconcile with the changes. I would like to quote from Mr. Philip Jenkins’s article of January 25, 2009,5 “To look at Islam without seeing the Sufis is to miss the heart of the matter. Without taking account of the Sufis, we cannot understand the origins of most contemporary political currents in the Middle East and Muslim South Asia, and of many influential political parties. We can’t comprehend the huge popular appeal of Islam for”. He further mentioned, “… it would be a terrible mistake to see Sufis as enemies. Sufis certainly have fought Western forces through the years, and Sufi-founded movements have on occasion engaged in terrorist actions . . . But in the vast majority of cases, such militancy has been essentially defensive, resisting brutal colonial occupations. This is very different from the aggressive global confrontation pursued by groups such as Al Qaeda”. While describing Sufis as much more than tactical allies for the West, Mr. Philip argued, “…they are, potentially, the greatest hope for pluralism and democracy within Muslim nations. The Sufi religious outlook has little of the uncompromising intolerance that characterizes the fundamentalists.

To further support his contention he wrote, “In many nations, Sufi brotherhoods exercise influence within local regimes, and those alliances allow them to drive back radicalism. Sufi brotherhoods have emerged as critical supporters of government in several post-Communist regimes, including in former Yugoslav regions like Kosovo and Bosnia, and in Albania. When a Qaeda-affiliated Islamist movement arose in Uzbekistan, the government’s intimate alliance with the Sufi orders allowed it to destroy the insurgents quite thoroughly . . . For similar reasons, even the Chinese government openly favors Sufism. Hard as they try, fundamentalist radicals find it impossible to gain much of a foothold in societies where Islam is synonymous with Sufism, and where Sufi loyalty is deeply tied to cultural and national identity”.

Finally, Sufism as progressive and moderate force inside the Muslim world, particularly in Afghanistan can emerge as strong supporter of democracy and modernization. Support for Sufis would strengthen peace and security against violent fanaticism and terrorism. Sufi empowerment would also contribute in enforcing discipline and accountability and help promote good governance, rule of law and human rights and alleviate widespread corruption.

* Mr. Jan Agha Iqbal is a former diplomat and an expert on diplomacy and international affairs who previously served as representative of Afghanistan to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). He also served as head of department in the OIC General Secretariat and was member of the OIC core team dealing with the Afghan
issue.

The post In Search Of Stability In Afghanistan: Discovering Moderation Through Sufism – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Ranjit Gupta*

Making predictions is a hazardous exercise; however, it needs to be ventured into. 2014 was particularly bleak for the Arab world, but as the year ended, there were increasing indications that the situation will steadily improve through 2015.

In the ultimate assessment, improvement or deterioration of the situation in West Asia is going to be heavily dependent upon whether or not the nuclear negotiations with Iran succeed.

Nature of War and Coalition against the Islamic State in 2015

The battle against the Islamic State (IS) in particular and terrorism in West Asia in general will remain at the top of the geopolitical agenda of all West Asian governments as well as of the US. It is absolutely imperative that the IS be defeated, and therefore, the battle has to be carried out with greater intensity. Since the US airstrikes started in September 2014, the IS’s rapid expansion and advance was stopped. 2015 is likely to witness a progressively increasing roll-back in terms of the territory the IS controlled at its peak.

However, this cannot be accomplished by air strikes alone. Though an increase in the number of US military advisors and Special Forces units, and their sometimes even leading Iraqis into battle can be foreseen, no significant deployment of US combat soldiers is needed; and any temptation to do so should be resisted. The numbers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces, already actively involved in the fighting, rising significantly and more airstrikes from Iran also – a few took place in the closing stages of 2014 – are quite likely.

If Saudi Arabia could be persuaded to become more assertive across its border into Iraq’s Sunni-inhabited Anbar province, it could have a salutary effect by pressing the IS from the rear also. However, the main brunt of fighting the IS on the ground must be borne by the Iraqis. Shia militias, Sunni tribals, Kurds and Iraqi government troops are likely to continue to be cooperatively engaged in the common fight against the IS – the common enemy.

Ethnic and Sectarian Divides: Likely Positive Developments in Iraq During 2015

Ethnic and sectarian divides in Iraq have been progressively increasing since 2003. However, despite a great deal of bad blood between them remaining for the foreseeable future, the Iraqi government and the leaders of these communities are likely to prevent these divisions from hardening into irrevocable separatism. Starting from 2015 onwards, the processes of mending a broken Iraq are going to move forward in a meaningful way.

Iran’s Related Nuclear Negotiations: Towards a Successful Conclusion?

Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant

The other regional issue, one that has extraordinary geopolitical and geo-strategic significance, both regionally and indeed worldwide, is the issue of Iran’s nuclear program and the ongoing negotiations between Tehran and the P 5 + 1.

The deadline for the conclusion of the talks has been extended twice; this in itself is a sign that the contending parties intend to succeed – which is absolutely imperative, because if they fail, the spectre of nuclear weapons proliferation in the region will loom ever larger, and Iran will inevitably start playing spoilsport in the fight against the IS – and thereby plunging the region into even greater chaos. Partly for these reasons, the negotiations will most likely succeed even though the result will not be fully satisfactory to either side.

Will the Civil War in Syria Come To An End?

Syria

If the negotiations on the nuclear issue (with Iran) succeed, the battle against the IS will acquire additional vigour and the prospects of a political solution to the horrendous civil war in Syria will brighten considerably; and we should expect to witness progress in that direction before the end of 2015. Peace talks between the Syrian government and the opposition, initiated under Russian aegis and that of the UN Special Envoy, are likely to gather momentum in 2015 and Iran would surely start playing an active role in that process too.

Because the war against the IS will be stepped-up, there would be an increase in the already high levels of violence that has gripped Iraq and Syria in the past few years. Additionally, it is extremely likely that the barbaric brutality exhibited by the IS in carrying out mass executions and grotesque video publicity of beheadings, wholesale abduction and rape as it retreats, etc. will increase. This is a price which, unfortunately, will have to be paid.

Developments within Saudi Arabia: Entering Unchartered Territory?

There has been a lot of churning within the senior echelons of the Saudi royal family over the past year two years, with two successive crown princes dying within months of each other; and by the controversial appointment of a Deputy Crown Prince – Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz al Saud – (regarded dimly by many in the royal family as not being a true prince as his mother was not the dynasty founder King Saud’s wife) in May 2014, a heretofore non-existent position; uncharacteristically, this appointment did not receive unanimous approval in the Allegiance Council. A few powerful establishment Princes, like Prince Bandar bin Sultan, have been sidelined.

Saudi Arabia’s Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah. File photo.

At present, King Abdullah is seriously ill and will most likely pass away or become completely non-functional during the first half of 2015 – a rather unfortunate happening at this particular juncture because he has been a strong and commanding figure. With Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud’s fragile health, questions arise about the future stability of the policies of this family-run, oil-rich country, apart from domestic consequences of potential discord with the Royal family.

This could lead to unpredictable consequences not only for Saudi Arabia but for the region as a whole when it is in chaos. Every attempt would be made to present a unified and harmonious Royal family façade to the outside world and the endeavour would be to maintain broad continuity of recent policies with a view to building bridges rather than exacerbating differences with neighbours. However, Saudi Arabia is now entering an uncharted territory and therefore all predictions are necessarily speculative.

Oil prices fell precipitously over December 2014, and the Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has been reported as repeatedly and emphatically saying that it will not curtail production even if the price falls as low as $25.00 per barrel. This is hurting all oil producers and Iran in particular in the region, and Russia outside it; if this persists for long, the US shale oil extraction could become unviable. If nuclear negotiations with Iran do not succeed, this low oil factor may become a particularly strong aggravating factor in catalysing a dramatic deterioration of the situation throughout West Asia.

Rest of the Arab World in 2015

Irrespective of the outcome of the battle against the IS and the nuclear negotiations, the internal situations within many Arab countries, particularly in Egypt, Libya and Yemen, are unlikely to improve. Though there is a democratically elected government in Egypt, it is even more authoritarian than previous authoritarian regimes and this will cause continuing domestic political unrest and increase in what the regime describes as terrorism. Libya has two competing national governments and parliaments and about two dozen different militant groups in contention with others, controlling virtual Islamic emirates.

Libya is likely to descend into a Somalia-like situation. Yemen has a weak and increasingly ineffectual central government; the Shia Houthi rebels are in virtual control of the capital Sanaa and important Sunni majority neighbouring towns; the secessionist movement in the south is strengthening by the day even as the Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, ensconced mainly in southern Yemen, remains a dangerous outfit. A break-up cannot be ruled out but in that event, the situation in both successor states is likely to deteriorate even further.

US in West Asia: Towards a Credible role?

Notwithstanding occasional public statements denouncing the US policies in West Asia, the US military involvement against the IS, in great contrast to past decades, is welcomed by all regional states and will almost certainly contribute to a recovery of the US’ credibility, influence and standing in the region – that had fallen to historical lows. If the nuclear negotiations succeed, despite unquestionable Saudi anger and disappointment, the US will once again resume its role as the indispensable power in the region as it has clearly exhibited in the fight against the IS already.

Israel and Palestine: Repeat of 2014?

The complete absence of any visionary leadership on either side of the Israeli-Palestinian divide, deep domestic cleavages amongst the Israelis and the Palestinians, and the pressing preoccupations of Arab countries and influential world powers with other issues, will result in the lack of any meaningful progress of the Palestinian-Israeli imbroglio; in fact, there could well be a repeat of what had happened vis-à-vis Gaza in 2014.

India and West Asia in 2015

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

An earlier column explained the enormous significance of the GCC to India’s wellbeing and security. Unfortunately, India’s new government does not seem to be persuaded by the column’s rationale. West Asia has been almost totally neglected as never before since India’s independence. This could have serious consequences for India.

Having said this, India has no specific role to play on the ground in the struggle against the IS beyond offering full diplomatic and political support to the struggle against the terror group. The danger of terrorist activities by Indian Muslims is exaggerated, and to the extent that it exists, it would be much more due to some being enticed by the notorious Pakistani spy agency, the ISI, than due to of the influence or activities of the IS or al Qaeda.

India’s Muslim community – the third largest in the world – has an absolutely outstanding record of resistance to contagion by Islamist extremist entities, ideologies, and movements. Therefore, there is no great danger of radicalism of significant numbers of Indian Muslims by the latter and India’s security agencies are quite capable of handling any such contingencies. A greater challenge is posed by possible consequences of the highly unfortunate rhetoric and activities of far right Hindu activists that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will hopefully curb in 2015.

Prime Minister Modi has been an enormously dynamic leader with a particularly proactive and visionary foreign policy with lack of attention to West Asia being a conspicuous exception. Hopefully he would remedy this lacuna in 2015.

*Ranjit Gupta
Distinguished Fellow, IPCS, former Indian Ambassador to Yemen (North) and Oman, and former Member, National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), India

This edition of the IPCS Column, ‘Spotlight West Asia’, is the precis of the larger document of the same name, that is part of the IPCS’s ‘Forecast 2015′ series.

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As 2014 ends, the world economy, the energy sector to be more precise, lies in a dismal state. Back in June, oil prices were at an all-time high. They have been slashed by nearly 40% since then. This rapid collapse of oil prices has had an adverse effect on various economies, such as that of Russia and Iran.

Russia, in particular, is having a bad outing — shrinking energy prices are followed by a rather crucial monetary crisis. The exchange rate of Russian ruble in relation to the American dollar has fallen by over 50% this year, and in the past week itself, Russian currency lost 17% of its value.

The question that now arises is: will the plummeting oil prices and a sinking currency spell doom for Russian plans of world domination?

What’s Wrong With Oil Prices?

The roots of the recent energy crisis can be traced back to an ever-increasing global surplus of crude oil supply. The production of shale oil and tar sands in North America, particularly the USA, has risen in 2014. This has, in turn, forced certain oil-centric economies, such as Saudi Arabia, to go above their previous production commitments.

All of this can possibly be viewed as an American scheme to subdue the economies of Iran and Russia. However, even if it is not a deliberate attempt by USA to pursue monetary expansion, the primary victims of the falling oil prices so far have been Venezuela, Iran and obviously Russia.

Why?

Russia, Venezuela and Iran need a base price of at least $140 per barrel in order to balance their budget, simply because all of these countries indulge in social spending and subsidized imports of important goods.

Thus, if the price of oil falls below $140 per barrel (it went to as low as $60 per barrel this year), retaining the break-even point for countries such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran becomes nearly impossible. Add to it the fact that the energy sector accounts for nearly half of Russia’s state revenues and a quarter of its GDP, and things clearly do not look very promising for the Russian economy.

The Case of Russia

Shrinking oil revenue and threats of Western economic sanctions have resulted in the collapse of the Russian rouble and capital flight. As a knee-jerk safety measure, Russian central bank did increase the interest rate — while this might slow down the fall of the rouble, it will also hurt the purchasing power of the Russian consumer and lead to inflation. In fact, government estimates claim that food prices might increase by 12% and overall inflation rate will rise up by 10% towards the start of 2015.

A weak ruble is not in Russia’s favor, for instance:

• Russian banks might fail to reimburse the $120bn in debts to international creditors (scheduled for payment in 2015).
• Lavish infrastructural investments of the Sochi Winter Games too need to be paid; and the 2018 World Cup is just around the corner.
• Russian finance minister is already reconsidering the $500bn rearmament programme.
• The development of an independent Russian space station too might be in jeopardy.

Conclusion

As of now, Russia is losing $2bn per every dollar decrease in the price of oil. Crisis of the energy sector, a collapsing currency and Western sanctions — you name it!

Clearly, Russia does have a lot to worry about. It is worth noting that back in 1991, the USSR collapsed not because of military failure, but primarily due to economic dysfunction. So, does this mean Russian Federation is in a state of jeopardy?

Probably not. Unlike Gorbachev, Putin has a better portfolio to his credit — by playing on nationalistic sentiments, punishing Ukraine and ultimately annexing Crimea, Vladimir Putin has given the average Russian a lot to be optimistic about, even though times are tough on the economic front.

In 2014, Putin enjoyed a good deal of popularity, with his popularity index touching the 80% mark. As a result, the Russian leadership can be sure that another 1991 is nowhere in the making, and the Deputy Finance Minister Aleksey Moiseev can indeed claim that Russian economy is “simply adjusting to the new realities of international trade”.

All said and done, the Kremlin is surely not enjoying the ongoing economic issues, but it is ready to weather the shock as well. Russia’s foreign currency reserves of roughly $428bn make a default of payments slightly unlikely, and as an outcome, Russia has the capability to overcome its economic woes.

The post The Falling Ruble And Russian Economy – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The number of unemployed registered with the Public Employment Services in Spain fell by 253,627 in 2014 (-5.39%), the largest ever year-on-year decrease recorded in December since 1998 and putting the total recorded unemployment figure at 4,447,711.

This is the second decrease in recorded unemployment at the end of the year since 2006 (following the decrease of 147,000 posted in 2013), meaning that the overall total decrease for the last two years now exceeds 400,000. In the previous five years, recorded unemployment had increased by an average of 314,000 on the previous year.

At the end of December, the number of unemployed fell by 64,405 on the previous month. This represents the second-largest decrease in December since current records began. In seasonally-adjusted terms, recorded unemployment fell by 5,404 – the fifth consecutive decrease.

By sector, unemployment among workers from the service sector fell by 65,275 (down 2.23%) and from the agriculture sector by 2,639 (down 1.23%). Meanwhile, unemployment among workers from the construction sector increased by 12,689 (up 2.39%) and from the industrial sector by 2,435 (up 0.54%). Finally, the number of first-time job-seekers fell by 11,615 (-2.99%).

Recorded unemployment fell in 12 autonomous regions, led by Andalusia (-24,901), the Region of Madrid (-13,528) and the Region of Valencia (-10,939). In contrast, unemployment rose in five regions, led by Galicia (3,286) and Castile-Leon (1,274).

Permanent employment up by 20%

The number of new employment contracts recorded in December amounted to 1,384,062. This represents an increase of 7.22% on the same month of 2013. The accumulated number of employment contracts in 2014 as a whole amounted to 16,727,089. This represents 1,934,475 more employment contracts (13.1%) than in the previous year.

A total of 99,853 permanent employment contracts were recorded in December 2014. This is an increase of 19% on the same month last year. An accumulated total of 1,350,331 permanent employment contracts were recorded in 2014 as a whole, which is an increase of 19.2% compared with 2013.

The number of full-time permanent employment contracts recorded in December rose by 19% on the same month in 2013. For the last 12 months in total, this increase rises to 21.81% when compared with 2013 as a whole.

Training and apprenticeship contracts have maintained their upward trend in December with 12,077 such contracts reported, an increase of 10% on the same month last year. This is a 32% increase in the accumulated total for the last 12 months.

Along the same lines, 4,770 work experience contracts were signed this month, which is an increase of 44.9% on the same month in 2013. Over the last 12 months, 30.2% more contracts of this nature were signed than in the previous period.

There were a total of 2,462,329 unemployment benefit recipients in November 2014, with the amount of benefits paid out by the system amounting to 1.93 billion euros.

Boost to job creation

The State Secretary for Employment, Engracia Hidalgo, stressed that the data published on Monday demonstrate the positive effects of the reforms undertaken by the Spanish Government, especially the labour reform, and are in line with recent trends in the Spanish economy.

“They are positive figures that encourage us to keep working”, said Engracia Hidalgo, adding that she hopes 2015 will be an important year for boosting job creation.

“Today we have more than 253,000 reasons to be more optimistic, but we still have many more reasons to keep working on the recovery and towards stable, quality employment in our country”, she said.

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Upset Indo-Americans have urged Woodbridge (Connecticut, USA) based New England Brewing Company to immediately withdraw its “Gandhi” beer, calling it highly inappropriate.

Indo-American statesman Rajan Zed, in a statement in Nevada (USA) today, said that peace icon Mahatma Gandhi abhorred drinking. Selling beer named after him was highly damaging to his legacy and hurt the feelings of Indo-Americans and Indians.

Zed, who is Chairperson of Indo-American Leadership Confederation, pointed out the marketing beer for mercantile greed using Gandhi was trivialization of Gandhian principles and belittling of the Indo-American community and Indians.

Mahatma Gandhi was one of the few men in history to fight simultaneously on moral, religious, political, social, economic, and cultural fronts, and he continues to be widely respected as one of the greatest moral and political leaders of the twentieth century, Rajan Zed noted.

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The ice on Greenland could only form due to processes in the deep Earth interior. Large-scale glaciations in the Arctic only began about 2.7 million years ago; before that, the northern hemisphere was largely free of ice for more than 500 million years.

Scientists at the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, Utrecht University, the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and the University of Oslo could now explain why the conditions for the glaciation of Greenland only developed so recently on a geological time scale.

The reason for that is the interaction of three tectonic processes. For one thing, Greenland had to be lifted up, such that the mountain peaks reached into sufficiently cold altitudes of the atmosphere. Secondly, Greenland needed to move sufficiently far northward, which led to reduced solar irradiation in winter. Thirdly, a shift of the Earth axis caused Greenland to move even further northward.

Hot rocks underneath Iceland

These glaciations began in the East of Greenland. The authors found hints in rock samples that the high mountains in the east of Greenland were only uplifted during the last ten million years, whereby this process happened especially fast since about 5 million years ago. At that time, Greenland was still largely free of ice.

Seismological investigations indicate that hot rocks rise underneath Iceland from the Earth’s deep mantle. These observations were used as input in computer models by main author Bernhard Steinberger at the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ. ”These hot rocks flow northward beneath the lithosphere, that is, towards eastern Greenland,” Steinberger explains. ”Because the upwelling beneath Iceland −the Iceland plume − sometimes gets stronger and sometimes weaker, uplift and subsidence can be explained.”

Greenland migrating

The seismological investigations also showed that the lithosphere in the East of Greenland is especially thin – only about 90 kilometers thick.

Earth scientists Steinberger and colleagues reconstructed the position of the tectonic plates 60 to 30 million years ago, and found that the Iceland plume was exactly beneath this part of Greenland during that time. This explains why the lithosphere is so thin. For that reason, the eastern part of Greenland could also be more easily uplifted: Plume material can flow up to a depth of less than 100 km and therefore lift up the overlying lithosphere comparatively easily.

Whereas the Iceland plume remained in approximately the same position in the Earth mantle, Greenland moved as a tectonic plate, with a northward component of six degrees of latitude during the past 60 Million years, towards cooler regions.

Shift of the Earth axis

This northward motion was amplified through ”True polar wander.”

”Our computations show that the Earth axis shifted about 12° towards Greeland during the last 60 million years” GFZ researcher Steinberger said. Therefore, in combination with the tectonic plate motion, Greenland moved about 18° northward. It was now sufficiently far north, and its mountain tops in the East were sufficiently high, such that glaciations could be initiated.

The post Explaining Why Greenland Is Covered In Ice appeared first on Eurasia Review.

While Malaysia remains fully committed to a “common ASEAN position” in terms of engaging China on the South China Sea disputes, it does not want this to affect its good bilateral relations with Beijing – as do several other ASEAN states. It is unlikely that KL will change its hedging policy.

By Nguyen Huu Tuc*

As Malaysia assumes its chairmanship of ASEAN for 2015, one of its top priorities will be to address the pressing issue of the South China Sea disputes, of which Kuala Lumpur is one of six claimants. However, one key question is how Malaysia could achieve any breakthrough since the country has placed a high priority on maintaining good overall ties with Beijing.

South China Sea

Even though Prime Minister Najib Razak also stressed Malaysia would promote moderation to address conflict and find solutions to issues concerning regional peace and security, I would argue that Kuala Lumpur is unlikely to abandon its hedging policy in managing the South China Sea disputes. The prospect of a solution, including the conclusion of the Code of Conduct, therefore, remains vague in the near future.

Current status of the disputes

Apart from Taiwan and three other ASEAN members – Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei – Malaysia is a significant claimant occupying seven islands in the Spratly group along a nearly 240 km arc stretching from Louisa Reef in the south, some 250 km from the Sabah coast, to Investigator Shoal midway between Malaysia and the Philippines. Media reports say China has been stepping up its military presence in Malaysia’s corner of the South China Sea.

In January, a Chinese naval flotilla patrolled the Paracel Islands, claimed by China and Vietnam, before proceeding to the James Shoal, a reef some 80 km off Malaysia’s coast in areas claimed by both China and Malaysia. It then proceeded beyond waters claimed by Beijing to the Indian Ocean, where it conducted the first exercises by Chinese military vessels in waters south of Indonesia.

Furthermore, as analysts have noted, alarm bells rang in March 2014 when China conducted a military exercise near the James Shoal, deploying an amphibious task force including PLA marines and hovercraft. During the exercise, the crew of the PLA ships held a ceremony swearing to defend China’s sovereignty, even though Beijing has yet to specify the basis of any claim to the James Shoal, which is a fully-submerged reef.

Malaysia’s hedging policy

To deal with the increasingly assertive attitude of China, Malaysia has accelerated efforts over the past few months to work with its fellow claimants in the South China Sea, including Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam to coordinate a joint approach on the dispute. Moreover, Malaysia has also announced efforts to boost its own capabilities.

In addition to stepping up patrols around the area, Malaysia once stated that the country would set up a marine corps and establish a naval base 96 km away from the James Shoal in Bintulu, Sarawak, as well as agreed to more US ship visits to Malaysian ports in the future.

Malaysia, however, has been adopting a relatively low profile on the South China Sea disputes. Kuala Lumpur seems unwilling to jeopardise its traditionally warm ties with China by risking the kind of confrontation that has soured relations between China and the Philippines as well as Vietnam.

As The Wall Street Journal has noted, the China-Malaysia relationship is being preserved regardless of China’s growing assertiveness, including in waters claimed by Malaysia, due to a combination of the countries’ greater distance from each other and strong economic ties.

China and Malaysia are not only large trading partners but their friendship has been improving over the years. Malaysia was the first ASEAN state to normalise ties with China at a time when some other members were still concerned about the threat Beijing posed. Since then, Malaysia’s ethnic Chinese community has been playing an important role in bridging the two countries’ trade and cultural exchanges.

In 2013, China was Malaysia’s largest trading partner for the fifth consecutive year, with two-way trade that year valued at US$62 billion. Deep energy ties exist between the two since Malaysia is the third-largest supplier of liquefied natural gas to China. In April, state-owned China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) agreed to join a Petronas-led project in Canada, known as Pacific Northwest LNG, as a minority partner.

Balancing national and regional interests

Based on these important aspects in their bilateral relations, the Chinese Foreign Ministry once said in a recent media statement that “Malaysia and China have disputes in the South China Sea. But the two sides share broad consensus on appropriately handling the disputed issues”. For its part, the Malaysian government is sticking with a policy of saying little either about China’s military flexing or any dispute with its largest trading partner.

Balancing between national interests and regional interests is always a challenge for not only Malaysia but many ASEAN member states, especially in terms of relations with China. The failure of the ASEAN foreign ministers in their Cambodia meeting in 2012, caused by differences over the South China Sea disputes, is still vivid.

The government of Prime Minister Najib is unlikely to emulate the more confrontational approach of Vietnam and the Philippines unless China decides to push the envelope by asserting its rights to islands and reefs claimed by Malaysia. China, for its part, will be wise enough to manage its assertiveness over the South China Sea disputes to avoid pushing this important Southeast Asian partner into a dilemma, at least in the year when Malaysia is the ASEAN’s rotating Chairman.

As Prime Minister Najib clearly stated in his keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2011, while Malaysia remained ”fully committed to a common ASEAN position” in terms of engaging China on the South China Sea, it is “equally determined to ensure that our bilateral relationship remains unaffected and, in fact, continues to go from strength to strength”.

Hence, despite skepticism of Chinese intentions and the entreaties of other regional actors, Malaysia is unlikely to abandon its hedging policy in a year when it is chairing ASEAN.

*Nguyen Huu Tuc is a Vietnamese researcher and analyst who is doing his postgraduate studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. The views expressed in this article are his own.

The post Malaysia And South China Sea: Will KL Abandon Its Hedging Policy? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The littoral combat ship USS Fort Worth has joined the guided missile destroyer USS Sampson in the Java Sea to assist in the Indonesian-led international search-and-recovery effort for downed AirAsia Flight 8501, according to a U.S. 7th Fleet news release issued Sunday.

This morning the Sampson’s commander, Navy Cmdr. Steven M. Foley, discussed current search efforts with ABC’s “This Week” weekend news program host Martha Raddatz.

“We’ve been searching using lookouts, using optical search equipment and scanning the horizon and using our helicopters in tandem to search a wide area,” Foley told Raddatz today.

Rough Weather

“The weather has been a little rough with scattered thunderstorms,” the commander said. “The seas have been about two to four feet, increasing to about four to six feet when the rain swells come in. And we’ve been operating in three specified areas that the Indonesian authorities have assigned to us.

“And you have to remember,” Foley added, “this is their search effort and we’re here to assist.”

Ships are being employed to search for the downed aircraft’s black box and the helicopters are looking for debris, Foley told Raddatz. Rigid-hull inflatable boats are also participating in the search effort, he added.

The Indonesian government requested U.S. assistance to help in the search for Air Asia Flight 8501, which disappeared Dec. 28 during its route from Surabaya, Indonesia, to Singapore with 162 passengers and crew aboard.

The San Diego-based USS Sampson, an Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided missile destroyer, was deployed Dec. 29 to assist in the search efforts for the Airbus A320-216 aircraft, according to a U.S. Navy news release. Since then, searchers have found debris and passenger remains from the aircraft, which apparently crashed during its flight during bad weather.

Remains, Debris Found

The Sampson arrived in the Java Sea search area on Dec. 30, according to a U.S. Navy release. Later that day, the Sampson’s helicopters and Indonesian navy assets discovered aircraft debris.

The Sampson’s crew also removed six remains from the sea Jan. 1 and six others Jan. 2, according to a U.S. Navy release.

“We find great gratification in being able to assist the Indonesian government in this ongoing effort and to bring closure to the family and friends of the passengers of AirAsia Flight 8501,” Foley told Raddatz

The post USS Fort Worth Joins In AirAsia Search Efforts appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Wasbir Hussain*

The Christmas-eve massacre in Assam of more than 75 Adivasi men, women and children by rebels belonging to the Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Boroland (NDFB-S) has made two things clear – that it was a pure act of terrorism, not a routine incident of insurgency, and that an assortment of rebel leaders are still remote-controlling their trigger-happy foot soldiers from safe hideouts in India’s neighbourhood. By way of a response to this continuing bloodbath in Assam (46 people were gunned down by the same outfit in Baksa and Kokrajhar districts in May 2014), the new Government in New Delhi is expected to demonstrate on the ground its ‘zero tolerance’ policy on terror, besides coming up with a new anti-terror strategy that factors in the firm commitment of support from Myanmar, Bhutan and Bangladesh.

The Narendra Modi Government must put its ‘zero tolerance’ policy against terrorism into immediate operation in Assam because the NDFB-S men, during their raids in Sonitpur and Kokrajhar districts on the evening of 23 December 2014, did not hesitate to kill infants by putting their gun barrels into their mouths. This explains the brutality of their crime and the commitment of this armed group to indulge in terror. The same group had killed an Additional Superintendent of Police in January 2014, shot dead 46 people in May, and killed a school girl in August because they suspected her of being a ‘police informer.’ The question that arises is obvious: what is the Unified Command of the Army, police and the paramilitary, headed by the Chief Minister, doing by way of measures to neutralise the rebels?

That the Government of India’s peace policy is flawed has been proved yet again by the latest carnage. New Delhi is already ‘talking peace’ with two other NDFB factions: the NDFB (Progressive) and the NDFB (Ranjan Daimary). For the record, the NDFB (Ranjan Daimary) group – and Daimary himself – has been clearly accused by the security establishment, including the CBI, for involvement in the October 2008 serial blasts in Assam that had killed 100 people. Now, despite the year-long killing and extortion spree by the NDFB-S gunmen, some Assam Police officers are reported to have been engaged in ‘talks’ with some leaders of the outfit. Such actions – talking peace with killer gangs – amounts to according legitimacy to such groups and their actions and only encourage newer militant groups to upscale their violent acts. It is this policy of the Centre that which among other reasons is keeping insurgency alive and kicking in the Northeast. The rebels by now know they only have to agree to sit for talks if the going gets tough for them!

Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh did talk sense when he visited Assam in the wake of the latest massacre. He said there is no question of engaging in talks with killers who have shot dead even infants and ruled out any political solution to the issues of groups like the NDFB-S. Singh talked of a ‘time-bound’ security offensive to neutralise the rebels. The Centre must now make a policy statement and announce a moratorium on peace talks with newer militant groups in Assam and elsewhere in the Northeast. This will go a long way in sending out a clear message to new insurgent outfits who would realise that they are henceforth going to be dealt with as nothing but a law and order problem. After all, the Government cannot be expected to sign fresh Bodo accords with the two NDFB factions it is currently talking to. Again, for those uninitiated, the Centre had signed a Bodo Accord with the rebel Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT) in 2003. The BLT thereafter transformed itself into a political party, contested local elections, and has been ruling the area for the past decade.

As usual, there have been claims and counter-claims in the wake of the carnage – central intelligence agencies have said they had intercepted radio conversations in which NDFB-S leaders were instructing their hit-squads to target Adivasis and that they had forwarded these to the Assam Police. If this is true, the Assam Government owes the people of the state an explanation as to the action taken on the information. But, killings by insurgents have become so commonplace in Assam and other Northeastern states like Manipur and Meghalaya that the local governments can afford to be complacent and unaccountable. Of course, the ongoing peace talks with a plethora of rebel groups only add to the confusion, surely even among the security forces on how to respond to a situation. Therefore, the need for a new anti-terror strategy.

The fact that External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj was quick to speak to Bhutanese Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay seeking his Government’s assistance in tackling the NDFB-S militants indicates the rebels may have once again opened shop inside the Himalayan nation or are sneaking in and out of its dense jungles. This is not surprising because the ULFA, NDFB and the Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) were flushed out of Bhutan by a joint Bhutan-India military assault in 2003. The External Affairs Ministry has also confirmed that Sushma Swaraj was in touch with other ‘friendly neighbouring’ countries as part of India’s bid to tame the Northeast rebels. This means that New Delhi is in touch with Myanmar and Bangladesh.

The Modi Government’s neighbourhood push is indeed notable, but commerce aside, New Delhi must also work out institutional mechanisms with Thimphu, Naypyidaw and Dhaka to deal with insurgents who operate sans borders in their trasnational criminal journey. The question now is this: can India work out an anti-terror strategy that transcends its borders and work together with the security establishments in Myanmar, Bangladesh and Bhutan? There has been cooperation on this front but one is talking of something with standard protocols in place. One hopes Prime Minister Modi, Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj will be able to devise an India-Myanmar-Bangladesh-Bhutan security umbrella to fight terror in the Northeastern frontier, and include Nepal too in the endeavour.

*Wasbir Hussain
Wasbir Hussain recommends institutional mechanisms with Thimphu, Naypyidaw and Dhaka to deal with insurgents who operate sans borders

The post India’s Northeast: Need For New Anti-Terror Policy – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

On December 30, five men were released from Guantánamo, bringing to 28 the number of men released from the prison in 2014, and reducing the prison’s population to 127. The five men were approved for release in 2009 by the high-level, inter-agency Guantánamo Review Task Force that President Obama appointed shortly after taking office in January 2009, and three of them had previously been approved for release under President Bush.

The released prisoners — two Tunisians and three Yemenis — were not returned to their home countries, but were given new homes in Kazakhstan. As the New York Times described it, “Officials declined to disclose the security assurances reached between the United States and Kazakhstan,” but a senior Obama administration official stated that the five “are ‘free men’ for all intents and purposes after the transfer.”

The Obama administration is to be commended for its efforts, although, of the 127 men still held, 59 were also approved for release in 2009 by President Obama’s Guantánamo Review Task Force, and there can be no rest for campaigners until these men are also freed. 52 of them are Yemenis, whose release was prohibited by President Obama and by Congress in 2010 after it was revealed that a failed airline bomb plot in December 2009 had been hatched in Yemen.

President Obama lifted his ban last year, but the entire US establishment is so worried by the security situation in Yemen that the only Yemenis released since the ban was lifted have been given new homes in third countries — three in Georgia and one in Slovakia, in November, and now these three men in Kazakhstan.

The two Tunisians released are Adel al-Hakeemy (ISN 168), who is 49 years old, and Abdullah bin Ali al-Lufti, also identified in Guantánamo as Mohammed Abdul Rahman or Lotfi bin Ali (ISN 894), who was born sometime in 1966.

I discussed the case of al-Lufti (aka Abdul Rahman) in my article, “Guantánamo Scandal: The 40 Prisoners Still Held But Cleared for Release At Least Five Years Ago,” published in June 2012, in which I described his illnesses, and also explained that, disturbingly, he was first cleared for release nearly ten years ago:

In the classified US military files relating to the Guantánamo prisoners, which were released by WikiLeaks in April 2011, Abdul Rahman’s file was a “Recommendation to Release or Transfer to the Control of Another Country for Continued Detention (TR),” dated June 27, 2004, in which it was also noted that he “had a mechanical heart valve placed in 1999,” and “has chronic problems with his heart rhythm (atrial fibrillation),” and also “has a history of kidney stones, latent tuberculosis, depression and high blood pressure. He is also on chronic anticoagulation (blood thinners).” Abdul Rahman … was also approved for transfer/release after Administrative Review Board Round One, which was held at Guantánamo in 2005 (see PDF).

As I also noted in my article, “Guantánamo Scandal: The 40 Prisoners Still Held But Cleared for Release At Least Five Years Ago,” a transfer recommendation was made for the other Tunisian, Adel al-Hakeemy, after his Administrative Review Board Round Three, on March 17, 2007 (see PDF, p. 194).

I discussed al-Hakeemy’s story in an article in June 2008, in which I wrote:

Adel al-Hakeemy … traveled to Pakistan to get married, and was living in Jalalabad, in Afghanistan, near his wife’s family, when the US-led invasion began in October 2001. Far from being a militant, he was in fact a chef, and had lived in Italy for eight years, working as a chef’s assistant in several hotels in Bologna. “I lived with Italians in their homes,” he told Cori Crider of Reprieve during a visit at Guantánamo … “I am used to their culture. The Italians worked alongside me, they respected me, they treated me as their brother.”

Of the three Yemenis, the first, Asim Thabit Abdullah al-Khalaqi (ISN 152), was born sometime in 1968. As I noted in my article, “Guantánamo Scandal: The 40 Prisoners Still Held But Cleared for Release At Least Five Years Ago,” al-Khalaqi was also approved for release under President Bush:

In the classified US military files relating to the Guantánamo prisoners, which were released by WikiLeaks in April 2011, al-Khalaqi’s file was a “Recommendation for Transfer Out of DoD Control (TRO),” dated January 1, 2007. A transfer recommendation (for “transfer with conditions”) was also made after his Administrative Review Board Round Three, on August 20, 2007 (PDF, p. 159).

In 2010, I wrote the following about al-Khalaqi’s case:

As described in The Guantánamo Files, al-Khalaqi stated that he “went to Pakistan with a friend to preach with Jamaat-al-Tablighi, but decided to go to Afghanistan after discovering that there were too many Tablighi representatives in Pakistan. He explained that he and his friend were successful in their mission, but everything changed after 9/11, when his friend ‘went one day to go eat lunch and didn’t return home.’ He then met an Afghan, who advised him to leave because Arabs were being killed, and explained that this man took him in his car to the foothills where he joined a group of Arabs crossing the mountains to Pakistan and handed himself in to the army on arrival.” The US authorities allege[d] that he undertook military training and was on the front lines at Bagram.

The second of the Yemenis is Muhammad Ali Husayn Khanayna, aka Khenaina, and also identified as Mohammed Ali Hussain (ISN 254), who was born sometime in 1968. As I explained in an article in 2010:

In Guantánamo, Khenaina … stated that he went to Afghanistan in August 2001 “to teach the Koran in Arabic,” although he admitted that he “did not actually teach the Koran.” After staying in a guest house in Kabul, he said that he heard of the 9/11 attacks and was “concerned about retaliation by the Americans and wanted to get out.” He explained that the owner of the house arranged for him to travel to Logar and then Khost, where he stayed with an Afghan, and then traveled through the mountains to Pakistan with five other Arabs and an Afghan guide. After joining up with another group of 19 men who were also fleeing Afghanistan, he reached the border, where he was detained by the authorities. Throughout this story, the only claim of militancy against Khenaina was an allegation that the manager of the guest house “arranged transportation for guests to a Taliban training area 35 minutes north of Kabul,” but Khenaina insisted that “he was not in Afghanistan to participate in jihad,” and that he “did not have a weapon while in Afghanistan.” He also condemned the 9/11 attacks, and explained that, if released, “he would return to Yemen and marry a cousin who has been betrothed to him and never leave again.”

The last of the three is Sabri Mohammad Ibrahim al-Qurashi (ISN 570), who was born sometime in 1970. As I explained in an article in 2010:

In Guantánamo, al-Qurashi said that he went to Pakistan on a trip that combined business and religion: to start a perfume business, importing Pakistani perfume, which is “very famous in our country,” and to study religion, because “in Pakistan there is the biggest center for Dawa and [Jamaat-al-]Tablighi.” Having become separated from his traveling companions, he said that he met an Arab who told him that he had the addresses for various perfume companies, but suggested that he should go to Afghanistan as a missionary first “because the people need you there.” He said that this man told him that he would bring him back to Pakistan after a month, but that when he agreed and went to Afghanistan he “couldn’t get out because the guy who took me to Afghanistan left and I never saw him again.” Despite this, however, he said that he ended up renovating and reopening an old mosque in Logar province.

Responding to an allegation that, after Kabul fell to the Northern Alliance, he “joined a group of about 100 Arabs in the mountain regions,” led by Abu Mohammad al-Masri (aka Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah), regarded as one of the organizers of the 1998 African embassy bombings, and a senior al-Qaeda figure who escaped from Tora Bora, he said that he was not part of a group, that he did not know of al-Masri’s role, and that there were far more than 100 people — “hundreds including Arabs, Afghanis, Pakistanis, from other nationalities, kids, women, old people, animals, and cows that belonged to the people going toward Khost.” He also refuted an allegation that he had trained at al-Farouq (the main training camp for Arabs in Afghanistan, associated with Osama bin Laden in the years before the 9/11 attacks) and had identified al-Masri as the leader of the camp, saying that he had only told this story because, after his arrest, the Pakistani interrogators had told him that the Americans wouldn’t believe his story about “coming to Afghanistan to teach Islamic rule,” and would say that he went for jihad and to fight for the Taliban. He added that they said, “if you don’t say what we are saying to you … you know there are no rules or system to defend you. We will start torturing you until you say what we are telling you to say to the Americans.”

The post Who Are Five Guantánamo Prisoners Given New Homes In Kazakhstan? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

It was the moment many had been waiting for. On January 2, Palestine’s United Nations envoy, Riyad Mansour formally requested membership at the International Criminal Court (ICC).

“We are seeking justice for all the victims that have been killed by Israel, the occupying power,” he said.

There was no explanation why Palestine’s membership of the Rome Statue (through which the ICC is governed) was delayed in the first place; of why no justice was ever sought for thousands of victims in Gaza, and many in the West Bank and Jerusalem, although such membership would have been granted much earlier.

In fact, in 2012, Palestine’s status at the UN was upgraded, from an observer entity to an ‘observer state’. The move was largely symbolic, since it was an attempt at breathing life in the two-state-solution, which was long dead. But it had one single practical benefit – the coveted membership at the ICC. Finally, Israel could be held accountable for its war crimes; finally, a measure of justice was possible.

Shifting Strategy?

Yet, for two years, the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas delayed. Not only did Abbas hesitate and carry on with the same tired charade of peace process, but he seemed keen on ensuring that Palestinian unity, even if achieved politically, remained pointless and ineffective.

But isn’t it better late than never?

Agency France Press described Abbas’ move as a “shift in strategy .. away from the US-led negotiation process.” Indeed, the US seemed peeved by the move, describing it as “counterproductive”. It will take some imagination to consider what a ‘productive’ alternative might be, considering that the US’ unhinged bias, and unconditional support of Israel had emboldened the rightwing government of Benjamin Netanyahu into carrying out the most hideous of war crimes.

Yet this is not exactly about the killing of nearly 2,200 Palestinians, mostly civilians during the 51-day Israeli war on Gaza last summer. Nor is it about the more than the 400 children who were killed then. Or even the siege on the Strip, the occupation and illegal settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

Certainly Abbas had numerous chances to admonish Israel in the past, cement unity among his people, use his leverage with Egypt to at least ease the siege on Gaza, devise a strategy that is centered around national liberation (not state-building of a state that doesn’t exist), end the ongoing theft of Palestinian resources by the PA itself, establish a system of accountability, and so on. Instead, he kept his faith in Washington, playing the wait-and-see game of Secretary of State John Kerry centered on a single premise: pleading with Netanyahu to change his ways and freeze settlement construction, which never happened.

Conventional analysis suggests that Abbas’s ICC move was the direct outcome of the expected failure of a UN Security Council resolution that was put to vote a few days earlier. The US, Israel’s main political guardian was, naturally expected to veto the resolution, which would have imposed a deadline on Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories. The US used the veto, and only eight member states voted in approval. A day later, Abbas signed the application for the ICC, among others; the following day, the application was formally submitted.

But a ‘shift in strategy’ it was not.

Abbas’ Balancing Act

The current political strategy of the PA reflects the unique qualities of Abbas himself, and is a testimony to his impressive abilities to find the right political balance, ultimately aimed at assuring his survival at the helm.

If Abbas’s own political subsistence largely depends on Israel’s acquiescent and US backing, one can rarely imagine a scenario in which Netanyahu and his war generals are arraigned as war criminals before the ICC.

It is inconceivable that Abbas had finally decided to break away from the restrictive role of being an active member of the US managed club of Arab ‘moderates’.

To do so, it would mean that Abbas is ready to risk it all for the sake of his people, which would be a major departure from everything that Abbas – the ‘pragmatic’, ‘moderate’ and conveniently corrupt Arab leader – has ever stood for.

So what is Abbas up to exactly?

Since the late 1970’s, Abbas began his quest for an elusive peace with Israel, which ultimately lead to the signing of the Oslo accords in Sep 1993. It was Abbas himself that signed the accords on behalf of the PLO.

Let alone that the accords wrought disaster on Palestinians, and failed to meet a single deadline including the final status agreement, which was meant to actualize in May 1999; it introduced a bizarre culture of revolutionaries-turned-millionaires, operating within the confines of militarily occupied Palestinian territories.

Year after year, the corrupt PA maintained its privileges as Israel strengthened its occupation. It was a massive barter that seemed to suit the interests of Israel, selected Palestinians, and of course, the US itself, which, along with its allies funded the whole scheme.

Ten Years of Tragedy

Late leader Yasser Arafat was clearly not suitable for the job expected of him. Flexible at times as he was, he still had political boundaries that he would not cross. In 2003, Abbas, the ‘moderate’ was imposed on Arafat by both Israel and the US as a prime minister, a post that was invented with the sole purpose of containing Arafat’s control. Following a brief power struggle, Abbas resigned. Shortly afterwards, Arafat died from possible poisoning, and Abbas returned to power, this time unchallenged.

Abbas’ mandate, starting January 15, 2004, should have ended in early 2009. But he decided to extend it by another year, and another, and has since then ruled over the fragmented, occupied nation, with the help of Israel, without a shred of legitimacy, except what he, and his supporters bestow on him.

It has been almost exactly a decade since Abbas ruled over Palestinians. They were years of tragedy, political failure, economic crisis, disunity, and unprecedented corruption.

Yes, the 80-year-old leader has survived, partly because Israel found him the most flexible of all Palestinians (he wouldn’t end security coordination with Israel even after he himself described as the genocidal war on Gaza); the Americans too wanted him to remain in his post, for there is yet to be an alternative leader, who places US-Israeli priority ahead of his own people.

But he also survived because he used billions of dollars funneled by international donors to construct a welfare system, creating a class of Palestinian Nouveau riche, whose wealth was a result of the occupation, not despite it. While the new rich basked in their underserved wealth, the fate of millions of Palestinians were tied to pay checks, which were not the outcome of a productive economy but international handouts.

While Israel was spared the burden of looking after the welfare of the occupied Palestinians as dictated by the Geneva and other conventions, it was left with abundance of funds to expand its illegal settlements.

Somehow it all worked out for all parties involved, save the Palestinian people.

The Search for ‘Victory’

In a sense, Abbas was never really a leader of his people as he didn’t place Palestinian national priority as the prime motivator of his action. At best, he was a political manger, whose management strategy is predicated on finding political balances, and catering to those with greater power and influence.

Following the expiration of Kerry’s deadline of April 29, 2014 aimed at reaching a final status agreement, and another major Israeli war on Gaza that ignited massive anger in the West Bank, which is itself on the verge of an uprising, Abbas’s burden was too heavy to bear.

To create distractions, and to deny the Gaza resistance any claim on victory, he began to hunt for his own ‘victory’, which he would then promote back in Ramallah, amid major fanfare and celebration of his supporters. With every such symbolic victory, Palestinians were inundated with new songs of Abbas’ supposed heroism, as his mouthpieces traveled the globe in a desperate attempt to reassert Abbas, and the PA’s relevance.

And after much of delay and haggle, Abbas was forced by sheer circumstance to resort to the ICC, not to criminalize Israel, but to win political leverage, and to send a message to Israel, the US and others that he still matters.

The move to join the ICC has little to do with the war crimes in Gaza, and much with Abbas’ growing unimportance among his allies, but also his own people.

The problem with Abbas, however, is bigger than Abbas himself. The ailment lies in the very political culture and class that sustained and benefited from political corruption for over 20 years.

Even when ‘President Abbas’ is shoved aside, due to old age or whatever else, the malaise will persist; that is until the Palestinians challenge the very culture that Abbas has painstakingly constructed with US money, and an Israeli nod.

The post The Problem With Mahmoud Abbas And His Authority – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

It is a new year and I’d like to propose a new American tradition: making Birth Year legacy gifts to lift our country’s future. Many Americans born in the same year – say from 1924 to 1944 – could form a unique affinity group to conceive and fund endowed institutions that improve our country’s “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”

For example, there are over two million Americans who are 76 years old, born in 1939. They hail from many different interests, backgrounds, and income levels, from billionaires to those barely making it. It is not too far a stretch to believe that many would like to do something to benefit their descendants – Americans who will inherit our country.

These legacies can take the form of significant self-renewing, nonprofit, civic institutions either at the national or regional level. No hidden agendas, no obscure profit motives, no self-aggrandizement; just extending the torch of wisdom, foresight, and imagining brighter futures.

Benefactors could come up with their own ideas. Here are some of mine:

1. Organize after school clubs for youngsters that advance civic skills and civic experience in local communities;

2. Develop and share project ideas to make it easier to strengthen more self-reliant communities;

3. Start a movement to simplify our laws, red tape, overly complex forms, and the omnipresent fine-print contracts;

4. Establish an annual national “Showing Up For Citizen Engagement Day” to rediscover best practices for a better America;

5. Organize for affordable and open access to justice forums for all Americans;

6. Award moral courage awards in all 3007 counties in the U.S. so as to recognize and support courageous people who stand tall;

7. Create facilities for participatory neighborhood sports – both organized and unorganized;

8. Build 2000 community civic centers, as Mr. Andrew Carnegie did when he funded the establishment of over 2000 free libraries a century ago;

9. Create arboretums in communities nationwide to increase understanding and enjoyment of nature;

10. Institute broad prison reform and rehabilitation for adults and juveniles – this is already receiving Left-Right support;

11. Enact public financing of public elections and other electoral reforms to give voters more voices and choices;

12. Promote faster conversion to solar energy and energy efficiency;

13. Endow Departments of Civic Practice in universities and colleges so students can learn how to practice democracy, civil rights, and civil liberties;

14. Advance full Medicare for all, with greater efficiency and free choice of doctors and hospitals;

15. Organize scientists/technologists to consider the consequences of their work in society;

16. Organize congressional accountability watchdog groups in all congressional districts for long-overdue reforms such as fair taxation, corporate law enforcement, reduced corporate welfare, and judicious allocation of public budgets for the necessities of the people.

By now, you may be thinking of your own proposals and wondering how you can launch these Birth Year legacy gifts. Well, out of each birth year can come those who have the means, the time, the imagination and the skills to jumpstart the process. Each birth year can have its own unique approach to establishing future betterments that can be operated in perpetuity.

There are many trillions of dollars of wealth possessed or controlled by people with birth years from 1924 to 1945. Most of this is dead money – money markets and other investments that do little to initiate needed changes. At the same time, many Americans think our country is moving in the wrong direction.

Mr. Carnegie could have left all his fortune to his descendants or to charities. Instead, besides endowing scientific institutions, his legacy is the millions of people who used and continue to use libraries that otherwise would not have been built in their communities to educate, enlighten, and inspire the citizenry. Shrewdly, this Scottish immigrant required towns and cities to provide the land before he paid to build the libraries as a way of signifying a public commitment to maintain them.

Perhaps the first step for the Birth Year initiative is to hold gatherings around the country simply to discuss the idea of legacy gifts by birth year.

Developing the kind of elan or spirit within birth years that we see in some universities and college alumni classes could be transformational for our nation and its relations to the rest of the world. For it wouldn’t just turn money into action for the common good; it would also arouse what now are too many discouraged people to engage in purposeful, exciting, elderly living with new friends and stimulations.

Activating older generations of Americans to share their knowledge and experience with the young certainly expands the latent potential of the human journey.

For help getting started on your own Birth Year project, please contact us at info@nader.org or write to P.O. Box 19367, Washington, D.C. 20036, for preliminary advice.

The post Ralph Nader: How Birth Year Legacies Can Better Our Country – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Around 1,700 Hindus in Bihar have embraced Buddhism citing the religion’s emphasis on unity and no discrimination among its followers, an official said Monday, reports MISNA.

Of these, 1,200 belong to Bainkathpur and Kudarbagha villages in Saran district, about 80km away, said a district police official. On Saturday, 500 Hindus, including women and children, embraced Buddhism in the state’s Gaya district.

“The conversion ceremony took place in a Buddhist temple in the village of Khanjahapur”, said the police official, telling the local media that Basant Mahto, a member of the Gaya Bodh Mahatma Budh Gayan Ashram Buddhist center, had a key role in the celebration.

According to the official, most of those converted to Buddhism were dalits and mahadalits and have been facing social discrimination in day to day life. This was the second case of mass conversions of Hindus since that of the 42 poor mahadalit families that converted to Christianity on December 25 in a village near Bodh Gaya.

The post India: Hindu ‘Outcasts’ Embrace Buddhism appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Michael Lelyveld

Plunging world oil prices have cheered consuming nations and troubled producers, but the effect on China is likely to be mixed.

As both a major importer and an oil producing country, China will see both upsides and downsides of lower prices after a 43-percent drop since the start of 2014.

At first glance, China should welcome the extra lift for its economy that lower energy costs can be expected to bring.

“The slide in oil prices to five-year lows offers China a double-benefit as its leadership confronts the weakest expansion in a generation,” Bloomberg News said.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have estimated that each 10-percent decline in oil prices will raise China’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.15 percentage points.

In 2013, crude oil accounted for 11.3 percent of China’s total imports, according to customs data cited by the official Xinhua news agency.

China could save $4.5 billion per month on its oil imports if the price trend continues, Merrill Lynch said.

But even that could prove problematic because consumer price inflation is already running far below the government’s 2014 target level of 3.5 percent, hitting a five-year low of 1.4 percent in November.

Since each 10-percent dip in oil prices is also expected to reduce consumer prices by 0.25 percentage points, further cuts could raise deflation risks, throwing the economy into a stall as spenders await further drops.

Uneven effects

The effects of declining energy revenues would also be felt unevenly in China.

“For China, the fall in crude prices has added to concerns over the prospect of regional deflation in the country’s resources-dependent hinterland, even as coastal manufacturers welcome lower input costs,” the London-based Financial Times said.

China’s import dependence for crude oil has grown steadily over the years, but the balance of its interests in a global market of cheaper supplies remains unclear.

As of November, China imported an average of just over 6 million barrels per day in 2014, according to customs data, representing 59.2 percent of its crude oil supplies.

The country’s oil production of 4.2 million barrels per day has remained virtually flat for several years.

While China is saving on imports, it may lose revenues from production.

An analysis published by the official English-language China Daily noted that net profit at PetroChina, the listed subsidiary of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), fell 6.2 percent in the third quarter.

Revenue at China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) was down 4.6 percent from a year earlier, the paper said, citing figures reported earlier by Reuters.

In a sign of concern for the pressure on profits, China’s Ministry of Finance announced on Dec. 26 that it would raise the threshold for the windfall tax on oil production to U.S. $65 (403 yuan) per barrel from U.S. $55 (341 yuan) per barrel at the start of 2015, giving oil companies a break, Bloomberg reported.

Producers are expected to reassess their oilfields and gradually shut down high-cost operations, The South China Morning Post said last week.

For much of the past year, China has been importing more crude oil than its market can use, taking advantage of falling prices to fill its strategic petroleum reserve.

In the first nine months, China put an average of 391,000 barrels per day into storage, Platts energy news service estimated.

The costs and benefits of the strategy may be open to question, since world oil prices dropped even more sharply in the fourth quarter of the year.

Apparent oil demand growth has been running far behind official GDP rates at 2.3 percent in the first 11 months of 2014, said Platts in a December report.

Demand for refined oil products has also been weak, rising by a scant 1.1 percent in 2014, a study by consulting firm ICIS China said.

Pricing formula

The balance of advantages for consumers and oil companies may depend on how well the government’s domestic fuel pricing formula responds to crude oil price declines.

Under rules revised in 2013, fuel charges are adjusted when international crude prices vary by more than 50 yuan per ton (U.S. $1.09 per barrel) over 10 working days.

The government has cut fuel prices 10 times under the formula since July, state media said.

But the lag in the system makes it less responsive than full market pricing, delaying or distorting the effects of world market shifts.

Philip Andrews-Speed, a China energy expert at National University of Singapore, noted that falling oil prices have been dragging down prices for imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), while world coal prices are also at a five-year low.

“As a net importer of all these energy products, China is set to gain on multiple fronts: trade balance, foreign exchange reserves, economic growth, manufacturing and agricultural costs, and inflation control,” Andrews-Speed said in a posting on the website andrewsspeed.com.

But for China’s refiners, the situation is more complex because the government has been cutting retail prices for fuel.

“Also, the refiners now have to sell at a low price product refined from crude oil that was purchased some time ago when prices were higher,” said Andrews-Speed.

Additional savings for consumers are limited under the formula when world oil prices fall below U.S. $80 (500 yuan) per barrel, the Financial Times said.

It is unclear how much benefit the government will want to pass on to consumers in the form of lower fuel prices.

Andrews-Speed noted that retail prices for gasoline and diesel have not dropped substantially because the government has raised fuel taxes to keep consumption in check.

On Dec. 12, for example, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxes announced a retail price cut and a tax increase of 1.4 yuan per liter (U.S. 87 cents per gallon) at the same time.

Fine line

The government may be walking a fine line between pro- growth policies that satisfy consumer demand for cheap fuel and public pressure to bring air pollution under control.

Environmental issues are also a concern for the government’s efforts to promote natural gas as a partial replacement for high-polluting coal.

Cheap oil and coal prices pose a challenge for switching to gas in the transport and industrial sectors, Andrews-Speed said, while lower gas prices would lower incentives to invest in costly gas extraction and development.

In an email message, Andrews-Speed said participants in a recent energy conference in Beijing seemed to agree that “the government has a problem deciding what do about domestic gas prices.”

One option would be to cut the prices but keep pressure on the national oil companies (NOC) to keep investing in exploration and production, even at a loss.

A combination of slower economic growth and price shifts in the energy sector appear to be playing havoc with forecasts of China’s natural gas demand.

In April, a statement on the central government’s website said China would “raise its natural gas supply to as much as 420 billion cubic meters (14.8 trillion cubic feet) per year by 2020″ due to rising demand and urbanization, Xinhua reported at the time.

Previous government forecasts called for 350 billion cubic meters (bcm) of demand in 2020, up from 167.6 bcm of apparent consumption in 2013.

But last month, a CNPC researcher said consumption in 2020 would not live up to either target.

“Because of China’s economic slowdown, annual growth in the nation’s natural gas consumption will no longer run at double-digit levels,” said Qian Xingkun, vice president of CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, China Daily reported.

Qian said consumption in 2020 would reach only 300 bcm.

Five days later, China Daily cited a CNPC forecast of 360 bcm in 2020 as the company pledged to increase imports in the face of a gas shortage this winter.

Since 2009, China’s gas use has climbed at an average annual rate of 15.6 percent, a company representative said.

In Qian’s forecast for the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016- 2020), consumption would rise by only about 8 percent per year.

The post China’s Policies Tested On Lower Oil Prices – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.