By Nazim Fethi

The Algerian government on Tuesday presented a new strategy to stop money laundering and the financing of terrorism.

The draft legislation put forward by Justice Minister Tayeb Louh is aimed at “defining the offence of financing terrorism, in accordance with international standards, and strengthening the mechanism to freeze and/or seize funds belonging to terrorists”.

This means that banks would from now on have a legal basis for their action to combat money laundering and terror financing.

Louh said the bill “takes into account the balance between Algeria’s constitutional arrangements and the country’s international commitments”.

The minister explained that the new text proposed three fundamental amendments, the first being a “precise and global” definition of the crime of financing terrorism. The proposed amendment “considers financing terrorism to be a crime, regardless of whether the offender and backer are in Algeria or abroad”.

The second change, concerning the legal definition and administrative procedures for freezing or seizing assets, proposes that the president of the Court of Algiers be authorised to take such a decision.

The third amendment covers the “completion of preventive measures concerning the duty of vigilance over suspect financial transactions”.

The African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism (CAERT), which is based in Algiers, has clear views about the current situation.

There has been a change in the nature of terrorist groups, according to CAERT head Francisco José Madeira. Their independence from the parent organisation, al-Qaeda, also means they need local funding. This requires them to turn to drug and weapon smuggling, as well as kidnappings, he said.

“Just as states are stepping up the fight on each side of the Atlantic, powerful criminal groups are taking advantage of the vulnerability of our countries to use the Gulf of Guinea as an access route for cocaine from Colombia and Afghanistan to the vast Sahel area,” the CAERT director added.

“Political conflicts in West Africa have resulted in a worrying growth in the smuggling of unregistered weapons, which are a significant supply source for the terrorists,” he told Magharebia. “A definite deal has been struck between those smuggling drugs, weapons and people, and the terrorists.”

Experts say that for countries facing the terrorist threat, kidnappings can be reduced through policy changes regarding ransoms.

According to Kamal Rezzag Bara, an advisor to the Algerian president’s office, “the payment of ransoms leaves the way open for even more hostage-takings, and makes it easier for terrorism to receiving funding.”

“It’s thought that around 150 million euros of ransoms have been handed over to terrorist groups active in the Sahel region,” he noted.

The post Algeria Steps Up Fight Against Terror Financing appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Horace G. Campbell*

‘More than a million people joined over 40 presidents and prime ministers on the streets of Paris on Sunday in the most striking show of solidarity in the West against the threat of Islamic extremism since the Sept. 11 attacks. Responding to terrorist strikes that killed 17 people in France and riveted worldwide attention, Jews, Muslims, Christians, atheists and people of all races, ages and political stripes swarmed central Paris beneath a bright blue sky, calling for peace and an end to violent extremism.’ – New York Times, Monday January 12, 2015

This is how the mainstream papers in the West commented on the massive march in Paris on Sunday January 11 where millions rallied as a show of solidarity with the political leadership in France. The banner headline of the New York Times read, ‘Huge Show of Solidarity in Paris against Terrorism.’ The Los Angeles Times in its headline stated, ‘France unites against terror: More than 1 million fill Paris streets to honor victims and say, ‘We are not afraid!’’ In the same article, the French President Francois Hollande was reported to have declared,

‘Paris is today the capital of the world.’

What is the meaning of this massive demonstration, allegedly in response to the killing of 17 persons in the week of January 5-10? In this commentary, this writer will join in the condemnation of the assault on Charlie Hebdo and the killing of journalists. It should be stated categorically here that this writer defends freedom of speech without endorsing the speech’s content. Thus, I am unequivocally denouncing the killings in France. But the use of satire as camouflage for racist and offensive speech is unacceptable and should be equally denounced.

It is also urgent for progressive forces to work to ensure that the killings and mass mobilizations are not turned into vehicles for manipulating the working people to support racism, islamophobia and other forms of European jingoism and chauvinism. Even the mainstream media such as Reuters is now writing that ‘Charlie Hebdo fallout: Specter of fascist past haunts European nationalism.’ This spectre of fascism must be taken seriously because fascism emerges in the midst of a capitalist crisis when the ruling elements mobilize chauvinism and racism to divert the attention of the working people from mobilizing against the capitalist class. This was the concrete experience of fascism during the last major capitalist depression.

France, like the rest of Europe, has been gripped by a triple crisis – the banking crisis, the sovereign debt crisis and the future of the Euro as a viable international currency. These three crises spawned a fourth deadly issue, that of the political crisis and the question of the legitimacy for the current political and economic system. All over Europe governments instituted austerity measures to force working people to bear the cost of the recklessness of the bankers. Thus far, the austerity measures to save the banking system in Europe have failed to stabilize the system. Europe is now facing deflation and the deepening of the economic recession. Although the tiered and hieratical system in Europe with Germany, Austria and the Netherlands at the top had sought to present the Eurozone crisis as problems of the fiscal indiscipline of leaders in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, the French political leaders had hoped that its international tools of accumulation and plunder in Africa and Western Asia would save the capitalist system in France. Since 2008 the three top French banks Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale were the most systemically risky financial entities in Europe. [1] Studies by European systemic risk index have warned of the over exposure of these banks and the need for billions of dollars of new funds to keep the French banking system solvent. French banks are over exposed in Greece.

In Greece and Spain there are massive popular social movements calling for a new social contract, new forms of politics and for an end to the austere measures to save the bankers. The French presidents Nicholas Sarkozy and Hollande have been jetting all around the world seeking to build alliances against the working people of France while supporting a climate of racism, Islamophobia, xenophobia and a climate of fear and insecurity. In this political environment, the far right political groups and parties have been the principal beneficiaries. The fringe and far right party called the National Front has emerged as the dominant force in French politics.

Internationally, France has become isolated after its duplicitous foreign policy by seeking to play the Chinese against the USA, playing Russia against Germany, then working with Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey against the USA over the question of the Iran nuclear deal. The French were also at the forefront of working with the conservative forces in Saudi Arabia and Turkey to remove the Assad regime in Syria. These differing forms of manipulation ran into a dead end as the social and economic crisis of European society was coming to the forefront of the consciousness of French citizens.

It is in moments such as these when passions and emotions are being exploited by the media to promote fear and a climate of insecurity where progressive journalists and investigative reporters are needed to fully investigate the varying forces at play in the newly declared war on radical Islam. There must be international mobilization to expose the real forces behind the killing of the journalists and vigilance to ensure that this manipulation does not reproduce the religious fanaticism that is being stoked by the neo-conservative forces in North America, Europe and West Asia. There must be the raising of the political consciousness of the youth to oppose racism and religious extremism so that they are not manipulated like the Kouachi brothers. There must also be a mobilization for an alternative to this system that props ups bankers at the expense of working peoples in all parts of the world. The fight for free speech, freedom of assembly, social justice and economic freedom should not be reserved for one section of humanity.

CONTEXT: THE NATIONAL FRONT AND DOMINANCE IN FRENCH POLITICS

Since the massive financial crisis of 2008, the European working peoples have faced austerity at the hands of political leaders. In France, the electorate voted to bring in the Socialist party led by Francois Hollande in May 2012 to end the rule of Nicholas Sarkozy who had ruled on behalf of the rich. According to the media François Hollande won power in France in order to turn the tide on a rightwards and xenophobic lurch in European politics. During the election campaign Hollande had vowed to transform Europe’s handling of the economic crisis by fighting back against German-led austerity measures. These vows disappeared as soon as Hollande took office and the “Socialist” pursued the same imperial and harsh policies of the Sarkozy conservative forces.

Instead of standing up to the bankers, Hollande instituted austerity measures. In the EU elections of 2014, the far right National Front that had been perceived as a fringe party in France emerged as the dominant party. The National Front led by Marine Le Pen has been campaigning on questions of crime, immigration and xenophobia and promoting Islamophobia. This was also an anti-Semitic force in the body politic of France.

This party was founded in 1972 by Jean-Marie Le Pen who had been part of the scared social classes after the uprisings in Paris in 1968. Jean-Marie Le Pen had been in the military forces of France that had been humiliated by the Vietnamese at Dien Bien Phu in 1954 and was also part of the retreating force from Suez in 1956. Le Pen was an intelligence officer in the failed effort to derail the decolonization of Algeria. These experiences left an indelible mark on citizens such as Le Pen who yearned for France to return to its heyday as a colonial force in international politics. During the period when the global anti-apartheid movement was a political force all over the world, the National Front remained a fringe, peripheral and extreme movement in Europe. Le Pen was convicted several times of racism and incitement to racial hatred. In 1987, he called the Nazi gas chambers “a detail in the history of World War II.” The National Front was anti-Semitic, anti-Muslim and racist. In 2011, the father handed over leadership to the daughter where the plan was to present a kinder and gentler face for authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing politics. In the face of the collapse of the base of the Socialist Party and the weakness of the Left forces in France, the National Front exploited the fears of the exploited French workers and in the EU election of May 2014 it emerged as the top political party.

The results delivered 25 percent of the votes for the National Front. It was the first time the National Front had overtaken all the traditional parties in an electoral contest, coming top with a quarter of the votes. The conservative and right wing opposition UMP that had been led by Nicholas Sarkozy won 20 percent, and the ruling Socialists were in third place with 14 percent. Political scientists and forecasters who have followed the ups and down of the French system had been predicting that Le Pen’s far-right National Front party could win in that election but, the scale of the victory still came as a bombshell to the French press and political class. In Lisieux, the FN did not even field a candidate in the 2009 European elections, when the “extreme right” candidate polled just over 2 percent. This time around the FN scored 27.5 percent.

Newspaper reports indicated that in the next scheduled presidential elections in May 2017, Ms. Le Pen would emerge victorious in a run off. France had moved so far to the right that the leader of the Socialist Party became even more unpopular than Nicholas Sarkozy with about 13 per cent of the support of the voting population. After the FN entered the Senate for the first time in the fall 2014, there was real panic among the ruling elements that wanted to present France as a model of tolerance and openness. However, the real social and economic crisis could not be papered over.

WILL THE FRENCH BANKING SYSTEM SURVIVE?

In the deathbed competition between French and German capitalists, the Germans have been able to dominate the European Central Bank and to ensure that the Euro serves the interests of German bankers and industrialists. France had remained a junior partner of Germany and held jealously on to the reserves of 18 African states in order to sit at the table of European capitalists with some authority. When the financial crisis of global capital unfolded after 2007, the US was able to present a picture of recovery by maximizing the Exorbitant Privilege of the dollar and printing dollars under the bond buying scheme that was called Quantitative Easing. European bankers under the thumb of the German conservative forces were not as bold in advancing the same ‘stimulus’ measures to save the banks; hence the draconian austerity measures were unleashed against the workers of Europe. In societies such as Greece and Spain these measures created major problems when there were draconian cuts in public expenditures. Unemployment in Greece and Spain soared to over 25 percent as the austere neo-liberal policies were promoted by the European Union establishments (European Council, European Commission, and ECB) and by the International Monetary Fund. These three entities ae referred to as the Troika.

French banks were over exposed in Greece and in June 2011 these banks had held $93 billion in Greek debt. At the height of the NATO war to save the Euro in North Africa in 2011, President Nicolas Sarkozy had announced a debt rollover plan that had been agreed with French banks that could provide the framework for a larger, international plan aimed at giving the debt-ridden banks some breathing space. This rollover plan was for three years and by the end of 2014, France had to look for new options, especially with the collapse of the government in Greece.

In 2013, the credit rating agency of Wall Street Standard & Poor posted a downgrade of France’s triple-A rating. The top French banks which had been juggling between its subservience to Germany and its domination over African states were put on notice that global capital wanted more drastic measures against French workers. After the Standard and Poor notice, in a move to reassure Wall Street and increase their capital buffers, France’s top three listed banks detailed major restructuring plans. BNP Paribas SA, Société Générale SA and Crédit Agricole SA announced a few thousands job cuts and plans to withdraw from several activities and parts of the world.

A study by JP Morgan found that the French bank Credit Agricole was the most exposed of Europe’s commercial banks. This kind of pressure spooked speculators and drove the political leadership of France into intense global diplomacy to save the current form of French capitalism.

THE DIPLOMACY OF SARKOZY AND HOLLANDE TO SAVE THE FRENCH BANKING SYSTEM

When the French initiated the war against the people of Libya in 2011, President Sarkozy had vowed, “We will fight to save the Euro.” Sarkozy travelled to China promising China part of the spoils of the war while seeking Chinese investments in the failing French banks. Sarkozy made promises that he could not keep, seeking to build an alliance with the Chinese leadership against the United Sates. In the elections of 2012, Sarkozy was ousted because of his clear and overt rule on behalf of the super-rich in France.

Francois Hollande became the president of France in 2012 and continued the same austerity measures of Sarkozy at home while abroad intensified the duplicitous foreign policy. Where Sarkozy sought to present geo-political reasons for an alliance with Chinese capitalism, Hollande invoked the ‘socialist’ linkages between French and Chinese capital. During his first trip to Beijing Hollande promised to work with China to promote a new international ‘multipolar’ order. This was a clear effort at an alliance with China against the USA. Hollande forced the return of the looted cultural artifacts that had been stolen from China by French colonial forces in 1860. This reparative act was noted, but Hollande left China basically empty handed.

The Chinese as long term planners did not have the three year rollover hanging over their head and listened with politeness as Hollande made his entreaties. In the Middle East, the same Hollande worked with Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey to sabotage the Iran nuclear negotiations. Together with Israel and Saudi Arabia, France linked with the Jihadists who were to be later formalised as ISIS to create havoc in Syria. When in 2013 the US refused to insert ground troops in Syria to topple the Assad regime, France curried favor with the Saudis for a massive arms deal and sought to reassert its influence in the Levant (Lebanon, Turkey, Syria). It was the same France that had been at the forefront of opposing the full membership of Turkey in the European Union.

Hollande was incessantly traveling (to Britain, Brazil, Germany, Russia and all over Africa), seeking answers short of nationalizing the banks and breaking from the Troika. In a state visit to the US in February 2014, Francois Hollande begged for support from the Obama Administration, citing the long alliance between France and the US since the American revolutionary war. France had been so busy that it had isolated itself and was now unsure of what its position was in the discussions with Washington. The displeasure and differences between the US and France were spelt out clearly in the press briefing of the NSC where the usual rhetoric on dealing with security challenges in Africa could not hide the deep rift between US imperialism and French opportunism.

The tensions between France and the US could not be papered over even after Hollande had travelled to Montiecllo (in Virginia) and the home of Thomas Jefferson to celebrate the history of the ‘shared values of democracy.’ After travelling to China, India, Brazil and South Africa proclaiming that France wanted to support a new multipolar world, when it came time for standing up to proclaim this new international situation, Francois Hollande groveled and repeated simplistic statements about partnership with the United States for international security. In his speech, Hollande had stated, ‘A decade ago, few would have imagined our two countries working so closely together in so many ways. But in recent years our alliance has transformed. Since France’s return to NATO’s military command four years ago and consistent with our continuing commitment to strengthen the NATO-European Union partnership, we have expanded our cooperation across the board. We are sovereign and independent nations that make our decisions based on our respective national interests. Yet we have been able to take our alliance to a new level because our interests and values are so closely aligned.’

To compound the problems for the French banking system, the BNP Paribas bank had been fined $10 billion for breaking sanctions. In the cutthroat competition between the oligarchs of finance, France’s biggest listed bank had been placed under investigation by US authorities over whether it evaded US sanctions, mainly on Sudan, Iran and Syria, between 2002 and 2009. When the French bank was fined, Hollande made vigorous protests to Obama over the fine, appealing that it was disproportionate. A similar case against the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in December 2013 resulted in the British banking group paying $100m in fines.

PANIC IN BERLIN AND PARIS

When the austerity measures in Greece forced a political crisis in December (2014) that led to the fall of the government and the call for new elections, there was panic all over Europe. Bankers and financiers feared that the election of a party that was not committed to austerity measures would weaken global capital in Europe. According to the Economist, ‘with the Athens stock market falling by almost 5 percent in a single day, bank shares down by even more and Greek 10-year bond yields rising to a new 2014 high of 9.5 percent (over seven points above those for Italy). The reason for this collective outbreak of nerves is that the polls point to an election win for Syriza, the far-left populist party led by Alexis Tsipras. Although Mr. Tsipras says he wants to keep Greece in the euro, he also wants to dump most of the conditions attached to its bail-outs, ending austerity, reversing cuts in the minimum wage and in public spending, scrapping asset sales and seeking to repudiate much debt. Such a programme seems, to put it mildly, to sit uncomfortably with Greece’s continuing membership of the single currency.

The working people of Greece have felt the pain that workers and poor farmers have been feeling all over the global South. Unemployment has reached over 25 per cent and the incidents of suicides doubled. In a book published in 2013, ‘The Body Economic: Why Austerity Kills’, by David Stuckler and Sanjay Basu, the authors chronicled the breakdown of social services in Greece and the incredible cost of austerity. When in December the Greek elections were called and the polls pointed to the possibility of the victory of a party that would not continue the policies of the Troika, there was panic in Berlin and Paris.

FRANCE AND JIHADISTS

Since the colonial wars in Indo China and in Africa, the ruling classes in France depended on racism and jingoism to gain the support of French workers. In North Africa and in West Asia, France supported jihadists while proclaiming it was at the forefront of the war against terror. This manipulation was on full display in Mali and North Africa where France engineered the support of Tuareg rebels only to launch a military intervention to fight the same forces that it had mobilized and supported. Similarly, France and the Patraeus branch of the US intelligence took over Libya and recruited jihadists to fight in Syria while telling the world that France was opposed to terrorism. Two years later in March 2013, the Socialist government of Hollande supported Seleka rebels in the Central African Republic (CAR) to oust President Francois Bozize because France accused Bozize of granting favorable contracts to China and South Africa. Less than a year later, France was mobilizing the Security Council of the United Nations to fight the same Seleka rebels. These were the same elements that France had assisted in seizing state power in 2013.

It is this history of duplicity that renders the French version of the events of Paris of January 7 incredible. The authorities in France would have the world believe that after keeping the two brothers (Cherif and Said Kouachi) for over 10 years, the state ended the surveillance of the brothers six months before they allegedly attacked the Charlie Hebdo offices. Even more bizarre has been the report that Commissioner Helric Fredou killed himself on the night of the attack on Charlie Hebdo offices. Helric Fredou had been the deputy director of the regional police of Limoges since 2012 and would have been one of the senior police and intelligence officers who could have testified about the relationship between French security agencies and the two brothers. The alleged killers, Cherif and Said Kouachi, who were shot dead by police on January 9, spent their high school years in the Limoges region. Fredou had dispatched a team of police officials under his jurisdiction to interview the relatives of one of the Charlie Hebdo victims and had been debriefed about the interviews. It has been reported in varying media that immediately after the police debriefing, he began preparing his report, staying late at police headquarters to write it up. He was later found shot dead at 1 a.m. on Thursday morning, and the report he was writing was never found.

WHO BENEFITS FROM THE HEIGHTENED INSECURITY AND SCAREMONGERING

The popularity of the far-right extremists in France and Europe has given comfort to the bankers that austerity could be covered up with racism. In the US, police killing of the poor, especially black and brown, had elicited a robust movement that was willing and ready to challenge white racism in the streets. In France, the working classes are more divided and the stoking of anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim racism has reached unprecedented heights. The Prime Minister took this tension to an even higher level on Saturday January 10 when he declared that France was at war with radical Islam. Islamophobia, austerity and divisions brought out the very same forces that are banning free speech in other parts of the world. Perhaps the most opportunistic of the leaders who gathered in France last Sunday was the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is himself facing reelection. The occupation of Palestine and the criminal war of Israel against unarmed citizens of Gaza had isolated the conservative Israelis in Europe with parliaments voting to recognize the Palestinian Authority. In the same week of the attacks on the offices of Charlie Hebdo, it was reported in the media that over 2000 innocent citizens were massacred in Baga, Nigeria, by elements of Boko Haram. The big rally in France had no words of solidarity for those massacred in Nigeria.

Two days after the killings at the Charle Hebdo’s office there was the hostage situation at a kosher grocery. Here, the world was introduced to another individual who had been under surveillance by the French system for years. Ahmed Coulibaly, who allegedly seized control of the kosher grocery, was another ‘terrorist’ who had been under surveillance for years. Even after being under surveillance, and accused of consorting with terrorists, a few months before his arrest in 2010, Coulibaly met Nicolas Sarkozy at a conference about disenfranchised young people arranged at the Élysée Palace.

This is the same person that we are told was a dangerous terrorist. Coulibaly had been released from prison only in March 2014.

VIGILANCE AND ORGANIZATION

This writer unequivocally condemns the killing of the journalists and other innocent civilians. This writer condemns racism, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia and xenophobia. But condemnation is not enough. Progressives cannot sit idly by while religious warfare is being stoked to inflame the passions of young exploited and alienated working peoples. Those who have not accepted the massive propaganda war about saving freedom of expression are asking questions about why six months before the perpetrating such violence, the French security apparatus ended their surveillance of these three men. Why did the police commissioner who was most familiar with these three men commit suicide? Or did he commit suicide?

Whether it was with the jihadists in Libya, working on both sides of the dirty war in Algeria, manipulating the Tuareg in Mali, or working with the Saudis, the French intelligence and security have worked closely with branches of U.S. intelligence and military to keep the flames of war and insecurity burning. As the socialist blog noted,

‘It is simply not credible that the three men were able to hatch and carry out an elaborate plan involving automatic weapons and explosives without the passive complicity, if not active involvement, of elements of the state apparatus. Even stranger is the apparent escape of Coulibaly’s girlfriend, Hayat Boumeddiene, who is also wanted for questioning over the attacks. While the details remain unclear, she supposedly evaded all detection as she fled from France to Spain, where she caught a flight to Turkey, then crossed the border into Syria.’

The open and covert collaboration of intelligence and security agencies with Islamic extremist organizations has a long history. France is the most dogged in holding on to colonial territories (as in Martinique, Guadeloupe and Cayenne) and exploiting poor people. But, the crisis of the French banking system has created an unprecedented situation. In the last depression, France could transfer part of the costs of the crisis on to villages in Africa. Now, African independence movements are opposing French stranglehold over their resources while China is encroaching on traditional allies of France in places such as the Cameroon, Congo Brazzaville and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The pending elections in Greece and the heighted mobilization of workers and students in Spain open up the possibility for new forms of politics in Europe and isolating the far right and extreme racist forces. As the European project unravels the militarization of the society to fight terror can quickly be turned around to mobilize the troops against workers, students and farmers who oppose austerity measures. If we look at the experience of other western countries, the first choice of the political class is to transfer the cost of the crisis on to the shoulders of the working peoples. This has been the concrete experience of the US since 2008. The Euro is unravelling and the recent decision of the Swiss to abandon the Euro is one clear manifestation that the expedient of transferring the losses of the banks to Greek and Spanish workers cannot hold for long. France will either have to nationalize the banks and impose greater controls of the top one per cent or intensify the austerity measures of laying off government employees, cut pensions and cutting services in health, education, housing and sanitation. This path to save the risky banks will be to intensify repression. In this alternative, the present militarization and war on terrorists will be like a dress rehearsal for moving the military against students and workers.

Until that moment, mobilizing to win the support of those who now support the National Front further entrenches racism, xenophobia and intolerance. The manipulation in Paris should be seen as a pre emptive move for deepening militarization. Progressives must oppose the rising fascist forces in Europe and neo-conservatism in the Americas.

* Horace Campbell is Professor of African American Studies and Political Science at Syracuse University. He is also a Special invited Professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing. His latest book is, ‘Global NATO and the catastrophic failure in Libya’.

END NOTE
[1] Sid Verma French banks most systemically risky in Europe, June 10, 2013, http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3216880/French-banks-most-systemically-risky-in-EuropeHEC-Lausanne-study.html

The post Manipulation In Paris: Racism, Islamophobia And Capitalist Crisis In Europe – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

On a national level, the main reason cited for movements in gasoline prices is often changing crude oil prices. Crude oil acquisition is the main cost in producing gasoline, and changes in crude oil prices, along with changes in gasoline market conditions, drive changes in spot and retail gasoline prices. EIA estimates that at current prices, about 55% of the retail price of gasoline is attributable to the cost of crude oil. However, at the regional level, several factors other than falling crude prices are influencing regional wholesale gasoline spot prices and retail gasoline prices.

Recent EIA analysis has shown that Brent crude oil prices have more influence on U.S. spot gasoline prices than do changes in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. The price of Brent crude oil has fallen by 57.8%, near its lowest price level in six years, since reaching $115 per barrel on June 19, 2014. U.S. gasoline prices have declined as well, with spot gasoline prices in New York Harbor falling 54.7% (Figure 1).

Other factors being equal, a $1-per-barrel change in the price of crude oil is completely passed through to the spot price of gasoline as a 2.4-cent-per-gallon change. EIA research and analysis has also shown that changes in spot gasoline prices have a consistent and predictable effect on changes in retail gasoline prices. However, factors other than crude oil prices also have an effect on spot gasoline prices and thus retail gasoline prices.

Spot gasoline prices account for global and local supply/demand conditions for gasoline at the prevailing crude oil price, including inventories, demand expectations, refinery outages, refining costs, and refining profits. Currently, high inventories are a major influence on regional spot gasoline prices. Inventory builds at this time of year are common. Inventories build in anticipation of seasonal refinery maintenance and because of lower demand during the winter. In addition, the current contango structure of the gasoline market (future prices are higher than current prices) is encouraging inventory builds. High inventories of gasoline can place additional downward pressure on gasoline spot prices regardless of changes in crude prices. Total motor gasoline inventories in all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs) exceeded the five-year averages from December 26 through January 9. As of January 16, total U.S. gasoline inventories were 240.9 million barrels, 10.7 million barrels higher than the five-year average and the highest level since 2011 (Figure 2).

As noted in EIA’s recent study, the U.S. Gulf Coast becomes increasingly long gasoline in late fall/early winter, and USGC spot gasoline prices decline to make it economic to supply more distant markets, such as Asia. After returning from refinery maintenance season in October, PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) refineries increased utilization from 87% for the week ending October 17 to 95.9% for the week ending January 2, dropping back to 87.7% in the week ending January 16. Increased refinery runs and lower seasonal demand have caused PADD 3 total motor gasoline inventories to build by 9.5 million barrels since October 10. High runs and increasing inventories have weighed on USGC gasoline prices, leading to lower prices compared to prices in New York Harbor and Singapore. In December, gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast averaged 21 cents and 23 cents below prices in New York Harbor and Singapore, respectively (Figure 3). Lower spot gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast are putting downward pressure on retail gasoline prices in the region, where average regular retail prices have continued to decline compared with the U.S. average.

Rapidly building inventories and high refinery runs during a period of lower demand have also pressured spot gasoline prices downward in the Midwest (PADD 2). Midwest refinery utilization averaged over 97% in December, causing Midwest gasoline more than inventories to build by 10 million barrels from late November through early January. As a result during the past two weeks, spot prices in Chicago averaged 6 cents and 20 cents lower than gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast and in New York Harbor, respectively. The market conditions pushing Chicago gasoline spot prices lower have also resulted in lower retail prices in the Midwest. PADD 2 average retail prices for a gallon of regular gasoline are typically 7-10 cents lower than the U.S. average in January; however, with the decline in spot prices flowing through to the retail level, that discount has increased to as much as 24 cents below the U.S. average (Figure 4).

Refinery outages, both planned and unplanned, can also affect regional spot gasoline prices. Though not yet evident in retail prices, recent planned and unplanned refinery outages in the Gulf Coast and Midwest have raised gasoline spot prices in those regions. Midwest and Gulf Coast spot prices have increased, by 26 cents per gallon and 10 cents per gallon, respectively, since the beginning of last week. However, these increases have not yet passed through to retail prices.

The retail price of gasoline is also determined by local market conditions. The most significant are federal, state, and local taxes, and supply and distribution costs.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices continue to fall, diesel now below $3 per gallon

The U.S. average price for regular gasoline fell seven cents from the week prior to $2.07 per gallon as of January 19, 2015, $1.23 per gallon less than the same time last year. The West Coast price decreased 11 cents to $2.38 per gallon, while the East Coast price fell ten cents to $2.16 per gallon. The Rocky Mountain price was down eight cents to $1.91 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price declined seven cents to $1.84 per gallon, and the Midwest price was down three cents to $1.92 per gallon.

The U.S. average price for diesel fuel decreased 12 cents from last week to $2.93 per gallon, the first time below $3 per gallon since September 2010, and 94 cents per gallon lower than the same time last year. The Rocky Mountain price led the declines, down 14 cents to $2.88 per gallon. The Midwest, Gulf Coast, East Coast and West Coast prices each fell 12 cents, to $2.89 per gallon, $2.84 per gallon, $3.02 per gallon, and $3.01 per gallon, respectively.

Propane inventories fall

U.S. propane stocks decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week to 71.2 million barrels as of January 16, 2015, 36.0 million barrels (102.0%) higher than a year ago. Midwest inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels and Gulf Coast inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels. East Coast inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 5.9% of total propane inventories.

Residential propane price increases while heating oil price decreases

As of January 19, 2015, residential heating oil prices averaged less than $2.84 per gallon, almost 8 cents per gallon lower than last week, and $1.22 per gallon less than last year’s price for the same week. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged $1.76 per gallon, 3 cents per gallon lower than last week and nearly $1.45 per gallon lower when compared to the same time last year.

Residential propane prices averaged less than $2.39 per gallon, almost 4 cents per gallon higher than last week, and 57 cents per gallon less than the price at the same time last year. The average wholesale propane price increased by 5 cents per gallon this week to 62 cents per gallon, $1.49 per gallon lower than the January 20, 2014 price.

The post Falling Gasoline Prices: Influence Of Crude Oil Prices And Other Factors – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Arthur Moore

Members of the defense community in Canberra like to consider Australia a middle power in the Asia-Pacific region. In military terms, being a middle power means playing a role, though not a lead one, in military endeavors; it also denotes an inability to look after the country’s national security interests unilaterally. Yet current trends indicate that Australia will soon lose the ability to behave like a middle power on the world stage, and even regionally, in military matters, and instead come to rely more on diplomatic initiatives.

Why Now?

Australia is the 12th largest economy in the world and is ranked 13th in terms of military spending according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. A country’s military is largely determined by the size of its economy, and Australia currently spends approximately 1.6% of GDP on its military; over the next decade it will look to bring this number to 2% of GDP. Whilst Australia’s economy has grown in the recent past, defense spending as a percentage of GDP has in fact declined. In order to sustain the current force structure, Canberra will need to spend even more than the 2% GDP number now being floated. However, this seems very unlikely considering Australia’s budget forecasts. Also, these figures tend to look a lot smaller relative to other countries in the Asia-Pacific region as they continue to expand their military forces. This will adversely affect and inhibit the Australian Defence Force (ADF), which means Australia’s geo-strategic position relative to other countries in the region will diminish.

Outcomes for the ADF

1) An increasing inability to contribute in a meaningful way to military operations in support of the US alliance

Over the past fifteen years, Australia has made military contributions to Iraq, Afghanistan, East Timor, and the Solomon Islands, as well as a host of others under the banner of the United Nations. These contributions have served two of Australia’s national interests: fostering a secure South Pacific and a stable, rules-based global order. The rationale behind the contributions, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, was to support Canberra’s alliance with Washington and generate mutual goodwill, because the logic is that Australia’s defense force is unable to defend the county unilaterally and hence relies on a powerful Anglo-Saxon ally for support. Yet despite this, Washington has been increasingly pushing for its ally to share more of the military burden. This requires Australia to increase military spending, which will prove difficult as ADF personnel costs are already hurting the prospect of additional funding for new conventional capabilities.

Increasing military spending as a proportion of GDP would be a break with the past. Since World War II, Canberra has maintained a defense force posture of ‘bandwagoning’ with Washington to strengthen Australia’s strategic position. The policy is tantamount to giving Canberra a ‘free ride’ on the back of US hegemony, which allows it to avoid adopting a more unilateral defense posture. It has also meant a consistent level of spending. Given the changing nature of the Asia-Pacific region and the era of Asian stability based on uncontested American primacy coming to an end, Canberra finds itself in a region that will likely be more volatile in the future. This increases the level of strategic uncertainty, and requires a build-up in armed forces to reduce the risk that the evolving security equation in Asia will undermine Australia’s position. It is common practice that when countries face a more volatile and insecure international environment, defense spending increases (Japan is an exception), yet for Australia such a course seems unlikely given its budget forecasts.

Whilst Canberra has committed a small land force to Iraq in response to the emergence of the Islamic State more recently, it will be unable to make meaningful naval or air contributions during contingencies in the Asia-Pacific region whereby great-power competition is defining the security environment, necessitating large-scale conventional capabilities. Instead, Canberra will be forced to rely on diplomatic and economic channels to preserve the status-quo in the region and respond to contentious issues.

2) Canberra’s middle-power status and geo-strategic position will make it increasingly reliant on diplomatic approaches

As noted earlier, Australia’s defense spending will decline relative to other Asia-Pacific powers. Yet there are other means to preserve Australia’s middle-power status. A middle power takes a proactive diplomatic approach within their respective region, whether it is through institution-building or supporting preexisting institutions due to the fact that military endeavors carry unnecessary risk. The recent MH17 crisis provided Canberra an opportunity to demonstrate its diplomatic clout by standing up to Russia. The aftermath of the MH17 disaster was addressed through diplomatic channels, thereby asserting that Australia could retain some elements of a middle-power status. Canberra successfully passed a resolution through the UNSC, which allowed investigators to enter the crash site. If current trends continue, Canberra will be increasingly reliant on diplomatic and economic efforts to achieve national security objectives in the coming decades.

Future Outlook

Australia is only a military middle power because of its alliance with the United States. However, in its own right, Australia will lose its status as a middle power in terms of its military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific, retaining only the ability to shape events through diplomatic channels. Canberra’s status as a small military power could mean less involvement in military campaigns; an inability to balance against rising military powers in the region; less hedging against the United States and more reliance on Washington for support. In order to address security risks, diplomatic and maybe economic channels will be given more credence as the ADF will be unable to address security risks of a conventional nature. When Washington asks for assistance, Canberra might be inclined to provide only non-military assistance. Overall, the 21st century will prove a challenging time for Australia and Canberra’s ability to respond effectively to all security contingencies.

This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com.

The post Australia Losing Its Middle-Power Status – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Between 2005 and 2006, Chérif Kouachi, one of the two Charlie Hebdo attackers, was imprisoned in the Fleury-Mérogis jail. While this appears to have facilitated his behavioral transition to violent extremism, it did not constitute a “triggering event”.

By Romain Quivooij*

Following the Charlie Hebdo attacks, commentators have highlighted the central role of prisons in the radicalization of juvenile delinquents. This was observed by political scientist Myriam Benraad who said “passage through French prisons plays a key role”. Illustrative of this argument are Mohammed Merah and Mehdi Nemmouche, two young Franco-Algerian responsible for the deadly shooting of eight people in the city of Toulouse in 2012 and four people in Brussels in 2013, respectively. Both spent time in French jails. Mohammed Merah spent 21 months behind bars while Mehdi Nemmouche was incarcerated for five years.

Prison dynamics

Chérif Kouachi

Two major events explain why prisons have become a central argument in accounting for Chérif Kouachi’s radicalization. The first event was his encounter in jail with Djamel Beghal, an historical figure of French Jihadism who was active at the end of the 1990s and the early 2000s. Djamel Beghal was released in 2009, three years after Chérif Kouachi, but was sent back to prison in 2010. The judge who studied Djamel Beghal’s network during this short interval, branded Chérif Kouachi as his “student”, which suggests that a long-established mentoring relationship existed between the two men.

The second event involves his meeting with Amedy Coulibaly, a meeting that also happened while the two were in jail. Chérif Kouachi even maintained personal ties with Amedy Coulibaly after his detention. The latter, who was also close to Djamel Beghal, led a series of parallel attacks which resulted in the death of five people, and stated that he “synchronized” his terrorist acts with those of Chérif Kouachi and his older brother, Saïd Kouachi.

These contacts tend to confirm that the Fleury-Mérogis jail was a breeding ground for radicals, where close interactions possibly contributed to an escalation of extreme positions. Known as group polarization, this phenomenon may have been central, especially given the potential role of Djamel Beghal as an internal source of radicalization. The latter was described in 2010 by the French antiterrorist police as “the leader of a takfir operational cell”.

Additionally, Fleury-Mérogis is plagued by a set of issues which have been common to some French prisons for decades, including overcrowding, unsanitary environment and inmate violence. These poor conditions provide opportunities for extremist radicalization and recruitment. However, bonds between Djamel Beghal and Chérif Kouachi should be put into proper perspective. According to an intercepted phone call by a French security service in 2010, Djamel Beghal was particularly critical about “Chérif” and told one of his accomplices “[not to] trust him”.

Ideology makes sense

As extensively reported after the attacks, Chérif Kouachi had been jailed due to his involvement in “the Buttes-Cheaumont network” from 2003 to 2005, whose objective was to send recruits to Al-Qaeda in Iraq. His experience within the network seem to have created a more lasting impact than prison. Chérif Kouachi was introduced to a violent extremist ideology and exposed to dynamic frames or “schemes of interpretation”.

The latter play a central role in the perception of a phenomenon. It can be related to the way a message is packaged and the charisma of the person/entity behind the message. Propaganda videos related to the Abu Ghraib scandal, a U.S.-led prison in Iraq where human rights violations were committed by American soldiers, resulted in the development of a strong sense of injustice and the feeling of a common destiny with Iraqi “brothers” based on a shared Muslim identity. These incentives were reinforced by the prominent role of Farid Benyettou, perceived by other members of the group as a credible religious leader who convinced his disciples that defensive jihad in Iraq was well founded. His preachings provided an additional, if not central, motivation to commit acts of terror.

According to his former lawyer, Chérif and Saïd Kouachi (his brother also joined the network but was not convicted) “had the feeling to integrate a family, to have a purpose in life”. This assessment implies that the network fulfilled a deep-seated personal need. It seems to be meaningful, considering the chaotic youth of the Kouachi brothers and their lack of opportunities at the time of their involvement with the network.

The influence of the ideology was further compounded by its resonance with Chérif Kouachi’s initial grievances. The “root causes” theory provides an incomplete and possibly biased interpretation of radicalization by focusing exclusively on externally caused tensions. However, it is plausible to assume that the core tenets of defensive Jihad resonated with strains experienced or construed as such by Chérif Kouachi, be it of social, religious and/or ethnic nature. Moreover, it appears that a process of ideological legitimation took place, as Chérif Kouachi used this experience to channel personal feelings of resentment against the Jewish community in Paris.

The premises of a radical identity?

Little is known of the relationship between Djamel Beghal, Chérif Kouachi and Amedi Coulibaly while the three men were jailed together. By contrast, socialization and mobilization within the Buttes-Cheaumont network clearly favored collective identity construction, understood as the process by which attitudes, commitments and behaviors of a movement are gradually determined. It should be noted that the group was isolated and used to meet at Farid Benyettou’s apartment. This possibly increased peer pressure which further convinced Chérif Kouachi of the justification for armed violence, especially against Jewish targets. Additionally, the organization relied on personal connections. Such affective dynamics are known to further radicalize beliefs, values and behaviours, while creating a strong impediment to leave the group, usually referred to as an “antidote for leaving”.

However, two elements tend to go against the idea that Chérif Kouachi’s firm decision to resort to armed violence would have happened during this experience. First, if one is to give credit to Farid Benyettou’s recent declarations, Chérif Kouachi would have made travel arrangements to Iraq before his actual involvement in the network. Second, his lawyer reported that in 2005 he was “relieved” to be arrested by the French police, as “he was afraid, had he shied away from his obligations, to be considered a coward”.

Additionally, a social worker who was in contact with Chérif Kouachi during his detention explained that he was clearly aware that Farid Benyettou had “pulled wool over his eyes”. These indicators provide useful perspectives on the real influence of the Buttes-Cheaumont network, but it does not follow that imprisonment would have been a complete game-changer. Rather, jail experience supported a radicalization process which lasted at least eleven years, the end of which was as tragic as it was challenging to predict.

*Romain Quivooij is an Associate Research Fellows with the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

The post Chérif Kouachi: A Classic Case Of Prison Radicalization? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By K.V. Rajan*

The miracle in Nepal is that, despite the painfully slow progress in writing the Constitution, and the continuing crescendo of dissonant voices across the political spectrum regarding what should be “essential” components in it and when and how the final draft should be completed, things seem to be holding together in an overall environment of comparative peace and stability.

The concern is that this may just be the lull before an unavoidable storm if the constitution writing does not achieve a broad-based closure in a reasonable timeframe.

Nepal’s political leaders do not seem to have learnt lessons from the earlier failed attempt at writing a constitution. The first Constituent Assembly (CA) that was elected in 2008 surprised the world by giving the Maoists a leading position — 229 seats in a house of 601, followed by Nepali Congress with 115, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), CPN (UML) with 108, and the Tarai-based Madhesi parties with a combined strength of 84.

These numbers seemed to reflect an emphatic preference on the part of the electorate in several respects — a rejection of the rightist parties which yearned for continuation of the monarchy; disapproval of the traditional mainstream democratic parties which had failed to translate democracy into sensitive governance, inclusive development and a stable and coherent environment; acknowledgement of the Maoists as a major political force which deserved an opportunity to take the driver’s seat in the power structure; recognition of the Madhesis as a long-suppressed section in Nepal’s polity and an important component in a restructured new Nepali state.

However, the Maoists as well as other key parties squandered away a historic opportunity to write the script for a new Nepal. The exercise was in the end overwhelmed by inter- and intra- party squabbles and contests for power; governing combinations were changed at regular intervals during the life of the CA; the Maoists showed they were no better than other parties on matters like corruption or quality of governance; and finally, the Maoist prime minister of the day dissolved the assembly, thereby precipitating a constitutional crisis. It is important to recall this background since history is in danger of repeating itself.

Through an innovative stratagem, it was decided that the only way out of the crisis was to elect a new CA. The latter came into being in January 2013, with the electorate throwing up a totally different composition as compared to its predecessor: Nepali Congress (the one major party which was denied an opportunity in the outgoing government) was now in first place with 196 seats, the CPN (UML) was next (175), and the Maoists (80) and Madhesis had been humiliated, reduced to fifth place after the pro-monarchy Rastriya Prajatantra Part (RPP) faction led by Kamal Thapa.

The combination of Maoists and Madheshi parties accounting for two-third of the first CA had sought to force their preference on key issues, especially federal restructuring, with both supporting ethnicity based federalism, on the remaining one-third. The second CA saw the percentages reversed — the ruling NC/UML combine with two-third majority has never been particularly enthusiastic on ethnicity-based federalism, and the evolving outcome of deliberations on the constitution clearly brought out disagreements on federalism as the main hurdle; the others being nature of government (presidential, prime ministerial or combination of both), electoral system (first past the post or FPTP plus proportional representation) and status of the judiciary (whether or not totally independent of parliament).

Nevertheless, up until September 2014, the Maoists under Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai appeared to accept the humiliating electoral verdict, as did the Madhesi parties, and promised to form a responsible opposition to the coalition government under Sushil Koirala; the NC and CPN (UML) were now coalition partners. There appeared to be credible progress in drafting a constitution by consensus. Since then, however, the old problem of personal and political upmanship has been asserting itself with increasing regularity and intensity. If in the last CA the NC and CPN (UML) were obstructionist because the Maoists and Madhesi parties would get all the credit in the event of success, now the roles are reversed. It is the Maoists and Madhesi parties which are in an agitation mode.

A consensus by Jan 22 seems unlikely. The Prime Minister, Sushil Koirala, and the post-constitution would-be hopeful prime minister K.P. Sharma Oli of CPN (UML), seem determined to push through the constitution by Jan 22 (the self-imposed deadline set by the parties before the CA II elections), using their combined two-thirds majority, while the Maoists, Madhesis and others who form a 30-party opposition group are insisting on the consensus route even if this means breaching the deadline. They are threatening a political conflagration if the ruling coalition goes ahead with a voting process bypassing the consensus route. The security forces are out on alert in anticipation of widespread agitation.

The quality and intensity of debate on federal restructuring does not leave much hope of sustainable compromises being found in the immediate future, even if the political parties reach an understanding. The Madhesi parties, otherwise leaderless and divided, have been insisting on a single separate state or state defined by their identity (widespread common languages – Maithili, Bhojpuri, Awadhi), cross-border cultural and familial links with India, etc; discriminated against for long by the hill-based Nepalis, this reflects a Madhesi aspiration, one which is strongly supported by the Maoists.

The Chinese, wary no doubt about the creation of pro-Indian entities close to the Indian border, have been advising the Nepalese to shun federalism based on ethnicity altogether, and instead think of three provinces from north to south touching both India and China! For its part, India has been studiously mindful of sensitivities of the non-Madhesh population, discouraging the Tarai leaders from aggressively pushing their cause, assuring the government of Nepal that it has no interest in Nepal’s internal structure post-constitution, etc. An attempt by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his second visit to Nepal, to urge local politicians to stick to the consensus formula did not go down too well with the ruling dispensation as it was interpreted as interference in Nepal’s internal affairs and favouring the Madheshi-Maoist insistence on ethnicity-based federalism.

After coming tantalizingly close to an all-party consensus on most issues and an agreed process for addressing unresolved issues, the key parties are indulging in the all too familiar tussle for power, with an eye on the top posts of president, vice president, prime minister, speaker, etc which are all supposed to be vacated when the Constitution is promulgated. It is well known in Kathmandu circles that there is an understanding between NC and CPN (UML) that as soon as the constitution is promulgated, Sushil Koirala will move from the post of prime minister to that of president, while K.P. Oli will take his place.

On the other hand, Maoist leader Prachanda is keen to become the country’s first executive president. The chairman of the CA, Speaker Subash Chandra Nembang, has expressed his impatience at the delay in adhering to the deadline when it should take “not more than a couple of hours” to finalize an agreed draft of the constitution if there was political will. There is also a view that there has been inadequate “consultation” on the constitution, since all decisions are being taken behind closed doors by a handful of leaders. In the process, complicated issues are being over simplified and the political understandings might not be sustainable in the long run. Thus, the debate on federalism is being reduced to questions relating to number, names and delineation of provinces rather than viability, local needs and aspirations, and expectations flowing out of the popular agitations of 2006.

There is the question of whether the loss of Nepal’s identity as a Hindu Kingdom –decided in some haste by the first CA under Maoist pressure — reflects the wish of the Nepali people. The Nepal Army, otherwise impressively apolitical in the significant transformations of the country in the past decade, is known to have suggested that a referendum on the subject would not be a bad idea. The popular appeal of right wing leaders like Kamal Thapa is also a pointer in this direction. For the time being, however, this is a closed chapter as far as key political players are concerned.

The election results in India in May 2014 did encourage hope in some quarters in Nepal that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was known to be sympathetic towards the institution of monarchy and non-enthusiastic about professions of secularism, might support moves to turn the clock back, especially with regard to restoring Nepal’s Hindu credentials. However, the Indian prime minister has made it clear that there is no such intention. (Nepalese intellectuals are not yet fully convinced on this score, and Modi’s much publicized prayers at the Pashupatinath Temple or his strong desire to visit Janakpur and Lumbini may not have helped).

A major positive is the appearance of stability in India-Nepal ties following Modi’s two visits to Nepal. Modi’s campaign style, high risk and high profile approach to bilateral and even domestic issues (eg, his repeated references to the Nepalese exercise of mainstreaming the Maoists in a peaceful democratic process not only in the Nepal CA but in his Red Fort address on Aug 15 and his UN General Assembly speech) and his emphasis on strengthening economic ties have gone down well with most political parties and has certainly excited the imagination of the common man in Nepal.

A highly significant outcome has been the forward movement on several hydropower projects for export of power to India, including Pancheshwar, Upper Karnali, Arun III, and the Koshi High Dam. Anti-Indianism is no longer acceptable political currency in Nepal, at least for now, and that is thanks almost entirely due to Modi. If the Indian government handles Nepal’s political uncertainties with tact and sensitivity, it is now quite possible to envisage a future of increasing development and prosperity in Nepal and stability and optimism in India-Nepal relations.

India would be closely watching the present and post-constitution leadership in Nepal on how it handles India’s China sensitivities. There is much cross-party enthusiasm in Nepal about achieving “equidistance” in relations with India and China, admission of China into the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), trilateral cooperation between India, China and Nepal, etc., even as the prospect of riding piggy back on a faster-developing India creates positive momentum in ties with India.

Perhaps the time has come — particularly given the likelihood of SAARC slowing down due to India-Pakistan tensions — for both India and Nepal to revisit ideas of nationalism and go in for proactive sub-regional cooperation, in which China and India reap joint benefits in developing Nepal as well as the sub-region encompassing India’s northeast, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar. Nepal’s China card will then rest in peace, for its raison d’etre will no longer exist.

*Ambassador K.V. Rajan was India’s Ambassador to Nepal from 1995 to 2000. He can be contacted at contributions@spsindia.in

The post Nepal’s New Constitution: Tantalisingly Near And Yet Far – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Dr Rupak Bhattacharjee*

The largest Islamist party of Bangladesh, Jamaat-e-Islami, is at the crossroads.

Most of the top party leaders are either convicted or facing trial for committing heinous crimes during the war of independence against Pakistan. Moreover, the war crimes tribunal ruled that Jamaat had functioned as a criminal organisation in 1971.

In yet another judgment on Dec 30, 2014, Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT)-1 sentenced A.T.M. Azharul Islam, assistant secretary general of the party, to death for wartime atrocities. Islam was the 11th Jamaat leader to be convicted by the tribunal. Jamaat firmly opposed East Pakistan’s secession from the west and collaborated with the marauding Pakistani troops to crush the Bengali resistance movement.

A three-judge panel of the ICT-1 headed by Justice M. Enayetur Rahim found Islam guilty of five out of six charges brought against him. Rahim observed that Islam deserved the highest punishment as charges against him were proved beyond doubt.

One of the prime charges against Islam was his direct involvement in the killing of 1,225 unarmed civilians, including more than 200 people belonging to the minority Hindu community, in a flood plain of Badarganj under Rangpur district on April 17, 1971.

According to the prosecution, Islam committed a series of war crimes and crimes against humanity in northern Rangpur district between March 25 and Dec 16, 1971. He played a superior role in several incidents of abduction, torture, rape and deportation of Hindus. The prosecution accused him of collaborating with the Pakistani forces in planning and carrying out attacks, persecution, arson and loot. Islam was also held responsible for the liquidation of intellectuals, including four lecturers of local Carmichael College, cultural personalities, physicians and lawyers.

The prosecutors further said that Islam with the help of his accomplices used to abduct and confine women at Rangpur Town Hall. Later on, they were handed over to the Pakistani troops for being used as sex slaves. Some of them were meted out barbaric treatment and eventually killed. One such victim testified at the tribunal as the first prosecution witness. She was confined and raped for 19 days.

The tribunal-appointed investigation team began probing Islam’s alleged involvement in wartime atrocities on April 15, 2012. The team questioned 60 people, including some victims, during the enquiry and submitted its report on Jan 8, 2013. The chief investigation officer said that sufficient evidence of massacre, arson, loot and rape had been found against the 62-year old Islamist leader.

The investigation report mentioned that Islam was district president of Islami Chhatra Sangha (ICS), Jamaat’s student wing, in 1971 and subsequently, he led the killing squad Al Badr in his locality. As soon as the war broke out, Islam along with his accomplices from ICS and non-Bengalis, collected names and addresses of pro-liberation people and submitted the list to the Pakistani soldiers stationed at Rangpur cantonment. He also played a major role in organising Al Badr militia from among the activists of the ICS and himself became its district commander.

Islam was arrested on Aug 22, 2012. Since then, he has been lodged in jail. On July 18, 2013, the prosecution brought six specific charges, including murder, genocide, conspiracy, abduction, persecution, rape, arson, loot and deportation against Islam. The ICT-1 took the charges into cognizance on July 25. Islam was indicted on Nov 12. A total of 19 prosecution witnesses testified against Islam during the trial. His trial began on Dec 5, 2013 and the proceedings concluded in September 2014.

During the trial, Islam pleaded not guilty and said that all the charges brought him were totally false, baseless and politically motivated. Reports suggest that Islam used his political position to throttle the trial proceedings. The prosecutors said that as an influential leader of Jamaat, Islam made concerted efforts to destroy evidence of war crimes at home and abroad.

The latest convicted Jamaat leader’s reaction followed the usual pattern. The senior party leaders never regretted their dubious role during the Liberation War and instead argue that their efforts in 1971 were directed towards strengthening Islamic movement in the country.

However, the popular perception in Bangladesh is quite contrary to the views expressed by the dogmatic religious leaders. The convicted Jamaat leaders are regarded as traitors who often become objects of public derision in the country. Islam is one such hated political personality.

The investigation team has pointed out that Islam had gone into hiding following the liberation of Bangladesh and returned to Rangpur only after the violent political changeover of 1975. His attempts to castigate the trial as a political ploy of the ruling party to weaken the opposition and his legal counsels’ efforts to dub the proven charges as fictitious will not find many takers in Bangladesh.

Jamaat’s retrogressive ideology and militancy of youth activists are largely responsible for its growing marginalisation in the polity. The party seeks to establish an Islamic state which is totally opposed to the secular provisions of the Constitution. A high court ruling in August 2013 cancelled Jamaat’s registration with the Election Commission and barred the party from contesting the parliamentary elections as its manifesto adheres to radical Islamic views.

The Jamaat constitutes a potent threat to democracy, peace and political stability in Bangladesh. In desperate attempts to show their strength, the party cadres have indulged in street violence and subversive acts whenever the top leaders have been convicted by the tribunal. In fact, the Islami Chhatra Shibir leaders threatened to wage a civil war before the execution of notorious war criminal Quader Mollah. The party accuses the ruling Awami League (AL) of hatching a conspiracy to destroy its leadership while the Sheikh Hasina government claims that bringing the perpetrators to justice is a historic responsibility.

The ideological cleavages and irreconcilable positions of the nationalist AL and the fundamentalist Jamaat aligned with major opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have often surfaced in Bangladesh following the restoration of parliamentary system in 1991. The secular nationalists’ long standing demand to ban Jamaaat from political participation has been contested by some senior BNP leaders who argue that it is prudent to “bring them inside” because banning them from participating in the electoral process may only push its frustrated cadres into the streets. It is imperative that the ruling elites find consensus on fundamental issues which are essential for the country’s survival as an independent, secular, sovereign and democratic South Asian nation.

*Rupak Bhattacharjee has worked as Senior Research Fellow at Kolkata’s Maulana Abul Kalam Azad Institute of Asian Studies and New Delhi’s Institute for Conflict Management. He can be contacted at contributions@spsindia.in

The post Bangladesh’s Jamaat: A Potent Threat To Democracy – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Chaldean Patriarch of Babylon has encouraged Iraqi Muslims to confront violent extremists, stressing the need to return to peaceful coexistence despite present threats in the country.

“At this point, there is no other future for us than living together in peace, harmony and cooperation,” he said in a Jan. 17 talk delivered to the Iraqi Center for Diversity Management.

Patriarch Louis Raphael I Sako has witnessed the emigration of around 1 million Iraqi Christians in the wake of the 2003 U.S. invasion. The withdrawal of U.S. forces and the rise of the Islamic State has further endangered the future of Christians in Iraq, while the Iraqi government struggles to regain control.

The patriarch stressed that Iraq’s different religions and ethnicities are rooted in the country, and are not foreign. Many groups which are now seen as minorities were once majorities and contributed greatly both to Iraqi and Islamic culture, he said.

“These communities are today marginalized, and have been dealt with harshly and in a brutal way,” he lamented.

“This happened in many cities of Iraq, and finally in Mosul and the towns of the Nineveh Plain. No more Christians are actually there, not a single one. All this led them to seek emigration.”

“Traditionally and historically, we have side by side with respect; we shared bread and salt, sweet and bitter, but today we wonder why this immoral and uncivilized phenomenon is happening?”

The patriarch said the more than 1 billion Muslims in the world are not responsible for extremist thought and action.

He said religious extremism and terrorism are serious forces for evil, but are not the only major threats. He especially faulted the mindset of the “takfiri,” the Muslim sects that groundlessly declare other Muslims and non-Muslims to be apostates.

He also cautioned that these mindsets are “well exploited by some of the competing forces of power under the cover of religion.”

Patriarch Sako called on Muslims to “take the initiative and lead a campaign of rejecting any sectarian discrimination.”

“It is of utmost importance that religious authorities and political leaders address the culture of hatred and all forms of violence that destroy human life and violate human dignity. It is a difficult task indeed!” he said.

“But it is not impossible if everyone cooperates in the promotion of a culture of peace and confidence. Everyone would overcome the fear of convergence and build bridges between citizens.”

The patriarch suggested a “joint Islamic project” to dismantle violent ideologies. He praised the strengthening of “an open and enlightened Islamic opinion” through the “appropriate interpretation” of religious texts. This approach would be “closing the door to those who are influencing the mentality of young people to use violence in the name of religion.”

He urged speech that builds up “humanitarian, national and spiritual solidarity among all human beings as children of the same homeland and humankind.” He endorsed the promotion of “a civilized culture of acceptance” that rejects “the eradication of others.”

“However, it is necessary to acknowledge that this process will take time and will require healing the memory,” he said.

Patriarch Sako also urged media networks to provide information that respects religions.

“Media networks must not harm religious symbols and thus insult the religious followers. Let us all promote an open culture that dispels prejudices and strengthens confidence and brilliancy.”

The post Leading Iraqi Christian Calls On Muslims To Confront ‘Culture Of Hatred’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said that 2,212 firearms were discovered in carry-on bags at checkpoints across the US in 2014, averaging more than six firearms per day. Of those, 2,212 (83 percent) were loaded. Firearms were intercepted at a total of 224 airports, or at 19 more airports than last year.

There was a 22 percent increase in firearm discoveries from last year’s total of 1,813, according to the TSA.

Relatedly, TSA screened more than 653 million passengers in 2014 (about 1.8 million per day), which is 14.8 million more passengers than last year.

Top 10 Airports for Gun Catches in 2014

1. Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW): 120
2. Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL): 109
3. Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX): 78
4. George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH): 77
5. Denver International Airport (DEN): 70
6. William P. Hobby Airport (HOU): 50
7. Tampa International Airport (TPA): 49
8. Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL): 49
9. Nashville International Airport (BNA): 48
10. Orlando International Airport (MCO): 47

The post TSA Found 2,212 Firearms At Checkpoints In 2014, Up 22 Percent From 2013 appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Haidar Al Abadi, Prime Minister of Iraq, today made an urgent appeal to the international coalition to provide more arms, air strikes and military training to help his troops combat the “barbarians” of ISIS. Abadi, speaking at the 45th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, described ISIS, also known as Daesh, as the best-funded and most organized terrorists the world had ever seen.

In the face of falling oil prices, Abadi added: “Our economy cannot sustain two major spendings – one to sustain our society and two to sustain this awful war.”

The Prime Minister said that Daesh’s momentum had not only been halted but reversed. In the past two to three weeks he had noted an increase in airstrikes against Daesh and better coordination between coalition and Iraqi troops. However, Abadi said Daesh had developed and grown in power due to the situation in Syria.

This war must be stopped, he said, but added: “I am pessimistic because I cannot see a plan to save Syria.” Referring to the role of Iran, Abadi said “they have been very helpful” but he denied that any Iranian soldiers were fighting on Iraqi soil.

Since his government took power in September, Abadi said it has recruited Sunni tribes in the fight against Daesh and carried out a purge of corrupt officials in both the army and judiciary. He announced plans to diversify Iraq’s economy – 85% of which is currently fuelled by oil – towards agriculture and petrochemicals.

Abadi added that he is trimming state bureaucracy and encouraging foreign investment: “We are moving from a state-dominated system to a more vibrant mixed economy.” He said that with large reserves of oil and an educated workforce, the economic fundamentals of Iraq remain strong.

The post Iraq’s PM Abadi Makes Urgent Appeal For More Military Support To Combat Islamic State appeared first on Eurasia Review.

United States President Barack Obama will visit India from (25-27 January). But the prevalent news about India-US bilateral relations is that after frantic efforts to remove glitches in the India-US civilian nuclear agreement and make it fully operational, the two sides have hit a dead-end and their respective positions would remain as deadlocked as ever during Obama’s visit as well.

The United States signed a nuclear deal with India in 2008 in the hopes to sell nuclear power reactors and fuel and resuscitate their ailing nuclear industry that has not sold many reactors lately. While we have no transparency on how much fuel India is buying from the U.S. as a consequence of this illegitimate nuclear deal, it is absolutely clear that selling a reactor to them will remain a wild goose chase. In reaching this deal the U.S. violated all nonproliferation norms and created an exceptional exception for New Delhi in a hope to make big bucks but the aspirations plunged.

The India-US stalemate on the civilian nuclear agreement is ostensibly more because of the flagging rights issue flouted by the Americans to which the Indians are dead opposed. The two sides tried their best to resolve sticky issues in operationalizing the nuclear deal and extended their talks in London by one more day. However, at the end of the extended day both the sides’ positions on the flagging rights issue remained completely opposed.

Washington wants India to provide the flagging and tracking rights so that relevant United States authorities know the locations of the US-supplied nuclear materials at any given time without which the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission will not be able to issue the licenses needed to go forward with nuclear reactor sales to India.

On the other hand New Delhi looks at the flagging and tracking issues as being highly intrusive and has made it clear to the US that it will never agree, deal or no deal. India’s argument is that all transaction of all nuclear materials under the Indo-US agreement would be covered by the IAEA safeguards and the assurance of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should be enough for the Americans.

The same Issue has been raised by Canada also in the recent past. But we all know the Indian proliferation record. India’s first nuclear test was of a device derived partially from Canadian and U.S. exports designated for peaceful purposes. That test spurred the United States and several other countries to create the Nuclear Suppliers Group to more severely restrict global nuclear trade. Moreover many analysts also allege that India’s procurement system for its own nuclear programs could leak or reveal nuclear know-how to other states or non-state actors.

India has said that it will never agree to such intrusive arrangements. On the other hand, the US has said that in no uncertain terms that they will have to dilute their stand to find conciliation on this issue. On this backdrop it appears that the two sides will not be able to resolve all outstanding civil nuclear issues when Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold talks on 25 January.

The post US-India Nuclear Agreement: Deal Or No Deal – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Rachel Bronson*

Saudi Arabia’s smooth leadership succession is exceptional in today’s violent and bloody Middle East. In neighboring Yemen, a coup upended local politics and is threatening to turn very ugly very quickly. In Iraq, Washington, Riyadh and Tehran forced a power transition when the Maliki regime failed to contain and defeat the Islamic State. Even Egypt has careened from Hosni Mubarak to Mohammed Morsi to Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, three presidents in 4 years.

And yet Saudi Arabia, the country that produces endless discussion about leadership succession will, for the 6th time in its history, experience a peaceful transition to the Kingdom’s seventh king. The only real tussle for power in the Kingdom’s modern history occurred a half century ago when King Faisal wrested control from his brother then King Saud. Even that transition didn’t result in anything near the level of violence and chaos exhibited today.

Saudi Arabia’s new king, Salman bin Abdel Aziz al-Saud, the son of the King’s founder Abdel Aziz al Saud, is expected to assume his new title without controversy. What’s more, his successor is also in place. Prince, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, the new Crown Prince will follow Salman. Who comes after Muqrin is rife with speculation but that transition is probably more than a decade away – an eternity given what’s going on in the region today.

The Legacy of King Abdullah

Saudi Arabia’s Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah. File photo.

King Abdullah served as Saudi Arabia’s first post-Cold War King. His predecessor King Fahd, like his brothers before him, had involved the Kingdom in one way or another in global pursuits to roll back communism. Whether it was King Khaled’s stepped up activities in Africa in the 1970s or Fahd’s support of the Contras in Central America in the 1980s, the Saudi leadership like many others was deeply engaged in the global struggle between the two super powers. Along with the increases in oil prices after the 1970s the massive defense deals and offers of foreign aid allowed for a level of corruption that reached grave heights under King Fahd.

Although Abdullah took power in 2005 after the death of King Fahd, he had been slowly amassing power since King Fahd’s debilitating stroke in 1995. Perhaps because he served so long as the head of the National Guard, King Abdullah gave greater focus to solidifying power at home, and raising Saudi Arabia’s profile in the region, rather than across the entire globe.

Abdullah will be remembered for identifying poverty inside the kingdom as a national priority, reaching out to women and the Shi’a minority through a series of National Dialogues early in his tenure and trying to nudge a stubbornly conservative population toward increased engagement if not tolerance. He brought Saudi Arabia into the WTO to help stamp out endemic local corruption and created a co-ed university in his name to ensure it was protected. Although he never moved as fast as many inside and outside the Kingdom would have preferred, he seemed intent to move in a more inclusive direction. This helped Saudi Arabia weather the dangerous homegrown terrorist attacks that targeted the regime in and after 2003. By focusing on domestic reform, he hoped to create a less toxic local environment that, until then, was producing idle disillusioned recruits to terror.

Two sets of events eventually stymied Abdullah’s reform: Iran’s increasing advances throughout the region in places such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen; and the Arab spring that began in 2011. Both posed significant threats to Riyadh and eventually overshadowed domestic reform.

Washington seemed unable or unwilling to help the King address either of these two realities. The US-Iran nuclear negotiations unnerved the Kingdom, whose leaders did not believe that the US fully shared their concern with Iran’s growing regional role. Because he no longer believed he could count on US support to help shape the region to Saudi’s liking, King Abdullah attempted (with not much success) to raise Saudi Arabia’s profile and forge a more independent foreign policy. This focus on foreign policy drew significant attention away from the promising domestic agenda that defined his earliest years as King.

Abdullah’s legacy is therefore one of considerable promise in the beginning followed by slowed if not-stalled domestic efforts. The newly assertive Saudi foreign policy developed at the back half of his rule did not yield many successes. Abdullah will be credited for maintaining stability in the Kingdom during very unstable times. Unfortunately, he never achieved many of the larger signature reforms for which many advocates inside the Kingdom and out had hoped.

He has, however, helped the Kingdom transition from the sons of the founder to the grandsons in a stunning appointment made upon the announcement of his death. Mohammed bin Nayef — a grandson of the Kingdom’s founder — has been named deputy Crown Prince. A close ally of King Abdullah and the United States, Prince Mohammed’s appointment may be Abdullah’s most long-lasting contribution to his country.

What We Know about the Next King, King Salman

Not only is the Saudi leadership transition likely to be smooth, but King Salman is a well-known figure in Saudi politics. Salman has played important roles in Saudi leadership including serving as the Governor of Riyadh, an important position given that most of the Saudi leadership resides there. He oversaw the transition of a city that grew from less than 200,000 in 1963 to 7 million today. By most accounts he did so with considerable skill.

In foreign policy, Prince Salman has been an active and visible player for a long time. In one of his more high profile roles he played a key part in funneling significant amounts of cash to Pakistan and Afghanistan during the Afghan war, which aligned with US policy and defined interests.

In terms of energy policy, Salman has publically declared his support for oil minister Ali al-Naimi’s decision to allow oil prices to drop without decreasing Saudi production to urge prices up. It would be surprising if Salman made any sudden changes regarding this controversial pricing policy.

On the economic and foreign policy front, King Salman is therefore likely to pursue policies similar to his half-brother King Abdullah. He is old (around 79) and in ill health, but he is well known to the US and others and will likely continue to plod along on the course set by his predecessor.

It was unlikely a coincidence that Prince Muqrin was appointed deputy crown prince only a day before President Obama touched down in Riyadh this past March. The King seemed to be getting his house in order, ensuring that the US understood its successions plan, and that key US practitioners had the opportunity to meet their soon-to-be counterparts.

The appointment of the new deputy Crown Prince is also quite important. Prince Mohammed bin Nayef the current Interior Minister is another important outcome. The US has established deep ties with Prince Mohammed and has worked with him extensively in counter terrorism operations. His professional career has been devoted to domestic security, meaning he will bring a security lens to his rule. But the royal family is leaving nothing to chance and has quietly if suddenly ended the decades-long speculation about whether they will ever be able to peacefully transition from the sons of the founder to the grandsons.

The Challenges Facing King Salman

The challenges facing Saudi Arabia are profound ranging from ISIS to Syria to an expanding Iran but three issues stick out as requiring immediate attention: the coup in Yemen, contentious oil policy, and the need to rethink domestic reforms.

Saudi Arabia has historically viewed Yemen with enormous concern. Yemen’s population of 27 million rivals if not surpasses Saudi Arabia’s. The border between the two countries has been traditionally porous, and Saudi has fought wars and skirmishes there throughout its history. Saudi Arabia interprets events in Yemen through a sectarian lens. Yesterday’s Houthi coup in Yemen is viewed by Riyadh as a direct gain for Tehran. Yemen will be Salman’s first international crisis and happily for him the US is similarly worried. A mutual concern about events in Yemen will provide US and Saudi leaders the opportunity to engage each other directly and immediately.

King Salman will also have to consider how long oil prices should remain low before the Kingdom considers reducing its own supply. Many in the kingdom, including Prince al-Waleed bin Talal think the Kingdom should be doing more to raise prices. Saudi Arabia is expecting to run a fiscal deficit for the first time since 2011, and although spending will continue, investments will decrease. The new king is on record backing al-Naimi’s position on low prices which aligned with King Abdullah’s views. Still, there is only so long that King Salman will be able to raid the Kingdom’s international investments to pay for domestic programs.

Finally, there is the issue of reform. King Abdullah had made domestic reform a priority early in his tenure but backed off toward the end of this life. How will a King Salman respond? He has given little reason to believe he will pursue policies much different than his half-brother toward the end of his life. But one has to wonder whether the Kingdom’s leadership can survive the visible torturing of prisoners in public, for example the public flogging of a blogger alongside the continued gruesome violence of the Islamic State and its affiliates. The coincidence of the flogging and the terrorist attacks against Charlie Hedbo’s offices in France was an uncomfortable one for the Kingdom. Can King Salman continue to marginalize free speech and local activism and keep a lid on the domestic tensions that exist in the Kingdom?

The Road Ahead

King Salman faces a tough road ahead. Given the orderly transition, the Kingdom appears well positioned to muddle through. But can it do more than that? What the region and the Kingdom need are new leaders who can take brave new actions and act decisively and quickly. Given the age and failing health of King Salman, this kind of vibrant leadership is unlikely. The Kingdom may be in store for a period of sclerotic stability rather than the chaos and uncertainty that many forecasted just a few days ago. Still, inertia brings its own problems. Brave and bold leadership may be in short supply at a time when the Kingdom most needs it.

About the author:
*Rachel Bronson is a Senior Fellow at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, where she directs the Council’s activities on the changing US energy landscape and its implications for US foreign policy, national security, and economic competitiveness. She earlier served as senior fellow and director of Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. She is author of Thicker than Oil: America’s Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia (Oxford University Press, 2006), and her essays have appeared in Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, the Washington Post, and The Chicago Tribune.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

The post A New King For Saudi Arabia – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

There is optimism for a sustainable future, where poverty is eradicated, disease eliminated and everyone has access to nutritious food and the opportunities presented by education. This message of hope was delivered by Bill Gates and Melinda Gates, Co-Chairs, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USA. They were speaking at the 45th World Economic Forum Meeting in Davos-Klosters.

Hans Rosling, Professor of International Health, Karolinska Institute, Sweden, confirmed that the main reason for optimism is the evidence of the past. “We have made tremendous progress in this world,” he said. Rosling pointed out that it is possible to make the world a better place. “The long-term trends are going in the right direction. The conflicts and the epidemics we can solve.”

Bill and Melinda Gates believe that the lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the next 15 years than at any other time in history. Important breakthroughs will be driven by innovation and technology, ranging from new vaccines with universal coverage, better agricultural yields due to better seeds, better nutrition, cheaper smartphones and new ways to deliver these benefits to more people.

“At any increase in the level of GDP, life is better,” Bill Gates said. “We get economic growth, but the fundamental basics have improved as well. The wonderful thing about the fundamentals improving is that it will continue for the next 15 years.”

Poverty has been halved because of innovation, he said. “Countries are following others that have done it right. Economic miracles start with agriculture, education and then they can participate in the world economy.” He pointed to China, which is now a middle-income country, as an example.

Bill Gates predicted that “in the next 15 years, we will have the tools to reduce [the incidence] of malaria and AIDS by 95% to 100%”. Melinda Gates said that vaccines are “a miracle cure”. Today, eight out of 10 children are getting vaccines. “Biotechnology and innovation are absolutely saving lives,” she said.

One out of 10 children used to die before the age of five. Thanks to the development of new vaccines and treatments, the percentage of children who die before the age of five has been cut in half. “We are looking at the biggest childhood killers of the world and tackling them with incredible vaccines,” said Melinda Gates.

Vaccine systems are being developed and the lag time between research and development and a vaccine being ready is one to three years. Thanks to private and government funding, prices have gone down by 35%. Countries such as Vietnam, Ghana, Ethiopia and Rwanda are reporting 90% vaccination coverage.

The Gates believe that with innovation in agriculture, within 15 years Africa will be able to feed itself, with access to the latest seeds adapted to African regions. Melinda Gates noted that with training in how to plant, crop rotation, and no till farming, Africans will be able to feed their families and trade intra-country.

Cheap smartphones are a game-changer. “In the next 15 years mobile phone coverage will go up, the price will come down, gender equity will improve and online software will be flourishing,” Bill Gates predicted. This will revolutionize everything: agriculture, access to digital payments, low transaction costs, women’s empowerment and education.

“If you want to pick one thing in an economy, education is a master switch of economic improvement,” Bill Gates concluded.

The post Bill And Melinda Gates Say Innovation And Technology To Drive Sustainable Future appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The civilized world will not bow to the threat of terrorism, said John F. Kerry, US Secretary of State.

“The 20th century was defined by the civilized struggle to uphold values of freedom, democracy and the rule of law,” Kerry said, adding that we will not be derailed by criminal anarchists who illegitimately claim a religious cause. Kerry was speaking at the 45th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland.

The first step is to defeat Daesh, Kerry said, referring to the rebel group also known as ISIS. They are better armed, better trained and have claimed more ground than any other terrorist group in history, he added. “Daesh represents a threat to individual nation states as well as the entire region.”

Much has been achieved by the coalition of 60 partners formed to defeat Daesh, Kerry said, but the speed of progress is not yet fast enough. To succeed, Iraq also needs to enhance outreach efforts to its Sunni population, he asserted. Referring to Daesh-controlled areas that are languishing, as well as specific atrocities, he said the world needs to see the terrorist group as it is, rather than as it claims to be.

To effectively combat violent extremism over the long term, we need to better understand the underlying conditions, he argued. “We can’t change minds without knowing what’s in them.” This understanding, he emphasized, is not the same as acceptance. There are no grounds of religion, ideology or politics that will ever justify the terrorist atrocities we see around the world, Kerry said.

“Eliminating terrorists we confront today only solves part of the problem.” We need to transform the very environment from which terrorism and fundamentalism arises, he asserted. We need to take the long-term view, identify vulnerabilities early, and do more to counteract and prevent radicalization.

Kerry concluded his address on an optimistic note – citing historic international cooperation in the battle against Ebola, new trade pacts, progress towards an international climate-change agreement, as well as steps towards a peaceful resolution of the Iran nuclear negotiations.

The post Kerry: Civilized World Won’t Bow To Threat Of Terrorism appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Claudette Roulo

The first advance detachment of U.S. troops responsible for training moderate Syrian opposition forces will begin arriving in the U.S. Central Command area of operations in the next few days, Pentagon Press Secretary Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby said today.

The detachment, numbering fewer than 100 troops, will begin establishing training sites for the moderate Syrian opposition at several sites in the region, Kirby told reporters during a regular Pentagon news briefing.

A second wave of several hundred trainers will deploy in the next few weeks, the admiral said.

Kirby noted that Army Major Gen. Michael Nagata, the commander of the Combined Joint Interagency Task Force, which is responsible for the train and equip mission, is confident that training of the opposition forces can begin in the early spring as long as things remain on track.

“So right now, signs are looking good,” he said. “Things are moving in the right direction. But I want to stress what I said last week — and it’s still true today — active recruiting has not taken place.”

The recruiting and vetting process is expected to take three to five months, Kirby said, while the actual training itself will take six to eight months.

Initial discussions earlier this month in Turkey with opposition leaders have been productive, the admiral said, but there is still a lot of work to do.

“Coming away from Istanbul, General Nagata felt very optimistic that there would be a pool from which we could begin to recruit and to vet and to get into the training pipeline,” Kirby said. “But even he is unable at this time to give an exact figure on how big that pool will be.”

“We’ve said, though, we know how to do this and we’re not going to do it just alone,” he said. “We’re going to do it with our interagency and international partners, people who know these groups.”

The post US Troops To Begin Establishing Syrian Opposition Training Sites appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Greece will need a fiscal stimulus if it is to emerge from years of mass unemployment in the near future, according to a new report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) .

The paper, “The Greek Economy: Which Way Forward?” by Mark Weisbrot, David Rosnick and Stephan Lefebvre notes that after six years of recession, Greece has completed one of the largest adjustments in the world, with import spending falling 36 percent and the government achieving the largest cyclically adjusted primary budget surplus in the eurozone.

“The adjustment is done, with the majority of the Greek people having paid a terrible and mostly unnecessary price for it,” CEPR Co-Director and lead author of the paper Mark Weisbrot said. “Now there needs to be a program to restore employment, instead of the current program which promises mass unemployment for years to come.”

Media reports and economic forecasts have been upbeat about the return to positive GDP growth in Greece in 2014, currently estimated at 0.6 percent. But the report cautions that “Greece’s return to growth last year was not a result of any success attributable to the policies implemented since the economy went into crisis, but rather to the end of the fiscal consolidation.”

The cyclically adjusted budget surplus – which measures the government’s fiscal tightening — moved from 5.7 percent in 2013 to 6.0 percent of GDP in 2014, or just 0.3 percentage points. In the three years prior, the adjustment had been 3.2 percent of GDP (2012-13), 3.8 percent of GDP (2011-12), and 5 percent of GDP (2010-11). The paper states: “It should be obvious that this huge drop-off in fiscal tightening would be the main cause of the return to growth.”

The paper describes the considerable economic and social costs of Greece’s adjustment, with output down by about 26 percent and unemployment currently at 25.5 percent, with youth unemployment at 49.6 percent. “Nominal wages have fallen by 16 percent in the private sector …and by 23.5 percent overall. The government has laid off about 19 percent of its work force.” Yet the IMF forecasts more hardship in the years to come, projecting unemployment to be 15.8 percent in 2018 – a decade after the crisis began – and in 2019 for Greece to be more than 9 percent below its pre-crisis GDP of 12 years earlier.

Greece’s current recovery is fragile, and mandated large primary budget surpluses and other austerity measures will continue to be a drag on economic growth, the report explains.

“There are policy measures that can lead Greece out of this dark period and into a sustained, robust recovery, but these are not the ones that the European authorities have imposed on Greece,” Weisbrot said. “Rather, these would be options that have worked in other countries experiencing similar crises and recessions: most importantly, an economic stimulus to replace lost private sector demand.”

Weisbrot noted that the European Central Bank could help Greece’s recovery with its new quantitative easing program, by buying Greek sovereign bonds and keeping its interest rates low, as well as other measures to ensure financial stability.

The post Greece To Need Better Macroeconomic Policies To Exit from Mass Unemployment appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Lisa Ferdinando

All options should remain on the table in an authorization for use of military force against Islamic terrorists, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said yesterday.

Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey spoke in an interview aboard his plane as he returned to Washington following a two-nation European tour focusing on threats to the continent.

Dempsey said his “best military advice” is that such an authorization — called an AUMF for short — gives flexibility to military leaders charged with defeating ISIL.

“I think in the crafting of the AUMF, all options should be on the table, and then we can debate whether we want to use them,” he said. “But the authorization should be there.”

In his Jan. 20 State of the Union address, President Barack Obama called on Congress to authorize an AUMF against ISIL.

Flexibility is Important

Dempsey said flexibility to make decisions on military action is important in this kind of fight, where state actors are fighting a nonstate actor.

“In particular, it shouldn’t constrain activities geographically, because ISIL knows no boundaries [and] doesn’t recognize any boundaries — in fact it’s their intention to erase all boundaries to their benefit,” Dempsey said.

“It would always be my recommendation as the senior military leader to keep our options open as long and as wide as possible — whether [or not] we ever use them, it’s important to have them,” he said.

‘Barbaric’ Terrorists Who ‘Perverted’ Islam

An AUMF that has time limitations would not be helpful in this kind of fight against brutal terrorists who know no boundaries to their violence, the chairman said.

“Constraints on time, or a ‘sunset clause,’ I just don’t think it’s necessary,” the general said. “I think the nation should speak of its intent to confront this radical ideological barbaric group and leave that open until we can deal with it.”

The fight is about the people of Iraq and the region “against the group that has perverted Islam,” Dempsey said.

Reconstruction, Counter-messaging Key Elements in Fight

There are nine lines of effort in battling ISIL, Dempsey said, noting that two of those lines are military efforts and the rest are nonmilitary.

The most important lines of effort, he said, are the nonmilitary lines of good governance and counter-messaging. Iraqi leaders need inclusive governance in which the Kurds and Sunnis are participants; the people of Iraq as a whole need to reject ISIL, he added.

The people need to get the message from their leaders that the fight is not about the West against Muslims, or Christians against Muslims, or against the Shia, he said. It’s a fight of the people of Iraq and international partners against the terrorists.

“That message can’t come from us. It’s got to come from them,” he said. For progress to be made, that message must be “forcefully delivered,” while reconstruction and good governance need to be in place.

“I’m telling you from personal experience,” said Dempsey, a career armor officer with four decades in the Army. “If that doesn’t happen, then it’s not enduring, because the people will reject the government. They won’t feel like it’s supporting them, and we’ll be right back where we started from.”

The post Dempsey: All Options On Table For Use Of Force Against Islamic State appeared first on Eurasia Review.

This year is the year for global action. If politicians, the private sector and international organizations fail to act on climate change and sustainable development in 2015, the opportunity to create low-carbon growth and reduce poverty will be lost. This was the message from world leaders, delivered at the 45th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters.

The world is at a critical crossroads. The third International Conference on Financing for Development in Addis Ababa next July is expected to result in a new roadmap to support sustainable development. The UN Summit in New York in September will adopt the post-2015 development agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals. In Paris in December, 196 countries will meet to agree on a new climate change agreement.

“With these [events] we can set our life and world on course for a better future,” said Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations, New York. “I am very encouraged. The climate summit last September has created new political momentum. It was a far-reaching leadership decision to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2040.”

Ki-moon noted that sustainable development and climate change are “two sides of one coin” – climate action will also contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals, agreed to by world leaders at the Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development in 2012. However, success will depend on growth, which is associated with pollution and more emissions. “Growth must be more inclusive and green,” he said. “By 2030 the world will make a massive investment in infrastructure, cities and agriculture. If this spending is directed towards low-carbon growth, we will be on our way to climate-resilient societies.”

The UN Secretary-General reminded participants that leadership is needed if growth and infrastructure are to be considered together. “I urge you to choose wisely and to invest in the low-carbon pathway,” he said.

Jim Yong Kim, President, The World Bank, Washington DC; Co-Chair of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2015, said it is important to get the maths right. “With an aggressive move towards clean transport and greater energy efficiency policies, we could [boost] the global economy by up to $1.8 trillion to $2.6 trillion per year,” he said. Yong Kim noted that it is important to get the incentives right. “We have to include the private sector in a way that we have never done before. We need to make growth robust [and make it] have an effect on poverty,” he said.

Many developing countries are “leapfrogging” with new technologies to combat climate change, said Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda. He described simple initiatives, such as reducing deforestation by providing cooking stoves and involving women and young people in climate change and sustainable development. “You have to begin at home in terms of land management and use of resources,” he said. “It is important to involve everybody. As we look forward to development, we are not making a choice between environment and prosperity; we are trying to combine both.”

Energy subsidies have wide-ranging negative consequences on growth, sustainable development and climate change. A. Michael Spence, William R. Berkley Professor in Economics and Business, NYU Stern School of Business, Italy, said it is a “catastrophic policy” that produces distorted economies. Subsidies for producers and consumers come at a high cost. Fortunately, Spence noted, they are in the process of disappearing.

“We have a choice between an energy-efficient, low-carbon path or an energy-intensive, high-carbon path that will end catastrophically,” he said. “The good news is that you don’t pay much of a price in terms of growth by getting on the energy-efficient, low-carbon growth path.” However, it will take a great deal of “commitment and creativity” to get there, he added.

Paul Polman, Chief Executive Officer, Unilever, United Kingdom, urged business leaders to pursue growth and job creation, but to make it sustainable. “Translate commitment into action in your companies,” he said. “We have an opportunity to show politicians that there are solutions and that they are better from an economic and sustainable point of view. We are talking about a new moral framework. Do you want to be the one that misses this opportunity?”

The post Davos: 2015 Key Year For Global Action On Climate Change appeared first on Eurasia Review.

According to estimates in the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) drafted by the National Statistics Institute (INE), employment rose by 65,100 in the fourth quarter of 2014 when compared with the previous quarter. This is the third consecutive quarter in which employment has risen and the first time in a fourth quarter since 2006.

In Spain, 433,900 jobs were created in the last year. This is an increase of 2.53%, 0.9% higher than in the previous quarter and the highest rate since the fourth quarter of 2007. Unemployment rose by 30,100 in the fourth quarter, although this figure fell by 1.1% on the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms. The total number of people out of work stands at 5,457,700 and the unemployment rate remains at 23.7% of the labour force. When compared with a year ago, unemployment has fallen by 477,900 and the unemployment rate has fallen by two points.

The quarter-on-quarter increase in employment stands at 0.4%, rising to 1% when adjusted for seasonal factors. This is double the figure posted in the third quarter and the highest rate since 2006, according to estimates from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). The increase in employment was concentrated in the agriculture, industrial and construction sectors, with increases of 62,800, 11,700 and 7,800, respectively. On the other hand, 17,200 jobs were shed in the service sector. Compared with 12 months ago, employment levels have risen in non-farm sectors – with 344,200 more workers in the service sector, 98,000 more in the industrial sector and 40,000 more in the construction sector, while 48,400 jobs were shed in the agriculture sector.

By age group, the largest Q4 2014 increase in employment was recorded in the age brackets of 50-54 (62,400 more jobs) and 55 or over (48,400 more jobs), while the number of jobs fell among those under 35, especially the 25-29 age bracket (40,200 fewer jobs).

Private sector employment on the rise

As regards the professional status of those in work, the quarterly increase in employment was entirely due to more salaried employees (up 69,900) while the number of non-salaried professionals fell by 4,800. Furthermore, employment growth was mainly concentrated in the private sector – with 63,100 more jobs, while the public sector grew by 2,000. When compared with a year ago, the private sector grew by 415,700 and the public sector grew by 18,100, with year-on-year rates of 2.9% and 0.6%, respectively.

The quarterly increase in salaried employees corresponded to those with permanent employment contracts with a total of 110,900, while the number of those with temporary employment contracts fell by 41,000. With this result, the temporary employment rate fell by 0.4 points on the third quarter to 24.2%. In year-on-year terms, the number of workers on a permanent contract rose by 212,800 and those on a temporary contract increased by 176,900.

As regards the working timetable, the number of those working full-time fell by 130,800 in the fourth quarter of 2014 and the number of those working part-time rose by 195,900. When compared with the same period in 2013, the number of people in full-time employment rose by 367,400 while the number of people in part-time employment rose by 66,500.

Unemployment rose by 30,100 in the fourth quarter of 2014, which is the second-best figure in the fourth quarter after the figure posted in 2013. The total number of unemployed stands at 5,457,700 and the unemployment rate stands at 23.7% of the labour force, 0.03% higher than in the third quarter. In seasonally-adjusted terms, the quarter-on-quarter change in the number of unemployed stands at -1.1%, compared with -1.9% in the third quarter. This is the seventh consecutive month of improving figures. Compared with the same quarter last year, unemployment has fallen by 477,900, or 8.05%. There were 30,200 more unemployed men, while the number of unemployed women remained virtually the same. The unemployment rate among men stands at 22.8% (0.3% higher than in the third quarter) and at 24.7% among women.

Fewer households in which all members are unemployed

Unemployment rose in all sectors when compared with the previous quarter, except for agriculture, where it fell by 14,100. The largest increase took place in the service sector (35,100), followed by industry and construction (15,500 and 4,900 more unemployed, respectively). When compared with 12 months ago, unemployment among the group of people who became unemployed more than 12 months previously fell by 211,800, with the number of first-time job-seekers also falling by 11,400.

The number of households in which all active members are unemployed fell by 23,100 in the fourth quarter, and the number of households in which all active members are in work rose by 37,000. When compared with 12 months ago, the number of households in which all active members are unemployed fell by 159,600, and those in which all active members are in work rose by 422,600.

The labour force increased by 95,200 in the fourth quarter. This is the second break in 2014 from the consecutive quarters of decline that began at the end of 2012. This is the first increase in the labour force in a fourth quarter of the year since 2009. When compared with 12 months ago, the labour force fell by 44,000 as a result of a reduction in the number of people of working age (16-64), which, in turn, can be explained by an aging population. The rate of activity rose by 0.3% in the quarter to reach 59.8%.

The Labour Force Survey (EPA) on the fourth quarter of 2014 confirms that a trend shift has taken place in the Spanish labour market situation. For the year as a whole, the number of people in work rose for the first time since the crisis began and at a faster rate for the third consecutive quarter. The unemployment rate is better by two points than it was 12 months ago (23.7%) and unemployment is down by almost half a million people. These figures show that the reforms implemented and the reduction of imbalances, together with the effort made by Spanish society as a whole, are producing results in terms of resolving the unemployment problem – the main target for the economic affairs policy. The creation of jobs, together with the improved purchasing power of incomes and lower taxes, represent a boost to private consumption and the economic recovery overall.

The post Spain: For First Time Since Crisis Began, 2014 Saw Economy Create 433,900 Jobs appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Leaders from around the world gathered in Riyadh on Friday for the funeral of King Abdullah who passed away aged 90, after being admitted to hospital in December, AFP reported.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the leaders of Sudan and Ethiopia joined Gulf rulers for the funeral prayer at the Imam Turki bin Abdullah mosque in Saudi Arabia’s capital.

King Abdullah’s successor and half brother,King Salman, was also present.

In keeping with the traditions of the country, the king was to be buried in an unmarked grave as was his predecessor King Fahd, who died in 2005.

State television pictures showed the late king’s covered body carried by members of the royal family wearing traditional red-and-white checked shemagh headgear.

King Salman has ascended to the throne following his half brother’s death.

Original article

The post World Leaders Attend Funeral Of Saudi King Abdullah appeared first on Eurasia Review.