The Bank of China (1949), the People’s Republic of China’s Central Bank, is the financial institution tasked with setting and implementing China’s monetary policy and regulating its financial entities. In the early 2000s China’s current account surplus began growing dramatically, and with it the country’s international currency reserves (see figure 1), all of which came within the purview of the bank.

China has traditionally adopted a conservative investment policy, preferring to purchase low-yield U.S. Treasury Bonds (between 2 and 4% interest rate). However, in 2006 foreign currency reserves reached a record $1 trillion, thanks to a hugely positive trade balance. That year, senior government officials and leading Chinese economists concluded that there was a need to create a financial body to manage and profitably invest these foreign reserves. Moreover, it was apparent that $800 billion was more than enough to protect the country against possible financial turmoil deriving from unforeseen external shocks, and increased export income made ​​the accumulation of currency reserves above that figure less necessary.

Figure 1
Source: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Available at: http://www.safe.gov.cn/

Consequently, in September 2007, after a decade of structural reform of the banking sector, the Chinese government accepted the Ministry of Finance’s proposal to establish a new sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation (CIC), to diversify these vast foreign reserve holdings ($1.4 trillion in September 2007; $4 trillion as of June 2014) in investments which would potentially yield a much higher income than that guaranteed by U.S. Treasury bonds. Until 2007, China was emulating Middle Eastern oil producers which recycled their “petrodollars” in dollar-based assets and securities, particularly by investing in U.S. Treasury Bills.

CIC is an exception to most of the global family of sovereign wealth funds. Unlike those of other countries, CIC does not have free and direct access to the country’s currency reserves. It was created by the Chinese Ministry of Finance through the issuance of $207 billion of Special Treasury bonds, the sale of which was completed in December 2007. These, rather than the reserves themselves, still form the basis of its capital.

This decision has had important consequences for CIC. In addition to needing to earn high returns on investment, the fund must pay interest on capital (4.5%) to the Ministry of Finance. According to Lou Jiwei, the former head of CIC who is now Minister of Finance, CIC must repay $9 billion annually ($300 million every day) to break even, i.e., to cover the interest on the bonds and its operating costs. This means it has to make a yearly return of 10-13% on capital before it can turn a profit.

In 2006, Jiwei proposed to leverage the financial strength of the Central Huijin Investment Corporation (CHIC, 2003), a Chinese investment company owned by the government of the People’s Republic of China dedicated to recapitalising Chinese commercial banks. The Ministry of Finance then proceeded to merge the CHIC with the State Investment Corporation Ltd (SIC) and give it the name of CIC. CHIC was acquired by CIC for roughly $67 billion.

CIC, which as of August 2013 has $575.2 billion of assets under management, is now fully owned by the Chinese government and reports directly to the highest executive body: the State Council. Initially, however, there was considerable friction between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance over the supervisory and regulatory function of CIC. This debate took place while the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), the lead subsidiary of the Central Bank, was tasked with drafting “rules and regulations governing foreign exchange market activities, and managing the state foreign exchange reserves”. As China’s foreign reserves had burgeoned almost exponentially in recent years, rivalry and competition had set in between state agencies and subsidiaries. Consequently, in September 2007 the Chinese government decided to transfer the control of the newly formed sovereign wealth fund from SAFE to CIC.

The Chinese authorities were inspired to create CIC in the form they did by the example of another sovereign wealth fund: GIC Private Limited, formerly known as the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, established in 1981. There are differences between the two SWFs, though, one of which is that the GIC investment portfolio is managed by three subsidiaries: GIC Asset Management Pte Ltd (public markets), GIC Real Estate Pte Ltd and GIC Special Investments Pte Ltd (private-equity investments). Traditionally, GIC is a very opaque investor, keeping a low profile in its financial activities. For instance, the quantity of funds it manages and its annual profit and loss are not publicly available, as the management believes that the disclosure of this information would invite speculators to drive the Singapore dollar down and other currencies up during periods of vulnerability. Consequently GIC has a low score (6/10) on the Linaburg-Maduell Transparency Index, a 10-point scale based on ten principles of transparency developed by the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute located in Las Vegas.

Even so, CIC delegations have several times headed to Singapore to familiarize themselves with the governance and risk management style of GIC, a global firm with one of the highest corporate credit ratings on both the Standard & Poor’s (AAA) and Moody’s (Aaa) indices and comparably high investment returns. The proceeds of the GIC activities are reinvested in areas such as education, R&D, health care and infrastructure. In 2013, GIC was the world’s fourth largest sovereign wealth fund, with around $250 billion in assets under management.

But where does CIC invest its money? In May 2007, CHIC – on behalf of the future CIC – took a 10% stake ($3 billion) in the Blackstone Group, an American multinational private equity corporation and the largest alternative investment firm in the world. However, this group lost more than 50% of its stock value within months, hitting CIC badly. In December of the same year it bought 10% of Morgan Stanley’s shares, for a total of $5 billion. Again, CIC was hit hard when this American multinational financial services corporation suffered huge losses during the last quarter of 2007. In the light of these initial failures, CIC revised its strategy.

CIC has always claimed that its investment objectives are solely the maximization of financial returns in the long term and that no political aims determine, or are factored into, investment decisions. In addition, partly to reassure recipient countries which become concerned when CIC makes equity investments in strategic sectors (such as energy, communications, high-tech, infrastructure, transportation or defense), and partly to diversify its portfolio, CIC has resolved to limit its investments in these “sensitive” sectors and companies by setting a ceiling of 10% of equities.

However, given the stringent conditions of the initial financing of the SWF, CIC is forced to make high-risk investments if it wants to generate acceptable profit margins. An important point is that the size of CIC’s investment and yields currently acts as a stabilizer in the dangerously volatile world financial markets. This explains the frequent discussions the Chinese fund has with other similar national funds, international banks, recipient states and other financial institutions, and also why it favours bilateral and multilateral agreements.

CIC Investment activities decreased significantly in 2008 and 2009. In the wake of the “Great Recession”, Beijing made the drastic choice of opting for a $600 stimulus package in the hope that such a move would support global growth by bolstering demand for imported machinery and raw materials. The plan called for a rise in spending through 2010 on airports, highways and other infrastructure as well as substantial aid to the Chinese poor and farmers and tax cuts for exporters. At the same time CIC restructured its investment strategy and focused on the diversification of its targeted markets and sectors. Emerging markets were substituted for EU and U.S. markets, which the Chinese considered saturated. Also, energy and commodity products became the top priorities in the new investment policy rather than equities, fixed income bonds, money-market instruments and real estate.

Several factors accounted for this reorientation. Acerbic criticism from SAFE was one. Following the Blackstone and Morgan Stanley fiascos, SAFE began expressing doubts about the performance of CIC, which was considered within the political leadership as the investment fund par excellence. This prompted the sovereign wealth fund to rethink its goals and strengthen its position within the group bodies in charge of foreign investment and foreign exchange reserve management. A second factor that underpinned the new preference for investment in the energy and raw materials sectors was that China forecast an imminent and significant rise of natural resource and energy prices and wanted to take advantage of this.

This strategic shift did in fact prove beneficial, as in September 2010 CIC established CIC International (Hong Kong) Co, a new subsidiary chaired by Lawrence Lau, and in 2011opened its first foreign office in Toronto, with Felix Chee as its chief representative officer. Both subsidiaries have the mandate to invest and manage overseas assets. Ultimately, the fund was substantially replenished by the Ministry of Finance, to the tune of $49 billion, as a reward for its good investment performance.

Recent Developments

CIC has recently confirmed its decision to allocate the assets of the fund by following the Endowment Model (or the Yale Model) developed by David Swensen and Dean Takahashi, the Investment Officer at Yale University. This model is premised on the idea that diversification and investment in equities, from which higher returns can be expected, are preferable to concentrating on the low but safe expected returns from fixed income investments (treasury bills or bonds) and commodities. Moreover, the Board of Directors has approved a strategic development plan for the period 2012-2016, i.e., a set of guidelines to stimulate further the growth of foreign investment.

According to the latest annual report, released in June 2013, the Chinese sovereign wealth fund had achieved a 10.6% annual return on investment at the end of 2012 and a growth rate of 5.2% since its inception in 2007.

In January 2012, CIC invested $276 million in the British company Thames Water and in November another $450 million in Heathrow Airport Group Holdings Ltd. In the energy sector, CIC spent $300 million to purchase 10% of EP Energy, an American company, while in April 2012 it agreed to buy 5% ($425 million) of Polyus Gold International Ltd. (PGIL), a Russian company owned by billionaire Suleiman Kerimov. This confirmed the Chinese wealth fund’s expansion into Russia. CIC also bought a 7% ($386 million) stake in the French company Eutelsat Communications SA and holds a 4.6% ($187 million) interest in the Moscow Exchange, the largest exchange group in Russia, which runs trading markets in equities, bonds, derivatives and foreign exchange, amongst other activities. Finally, 49% of the fund’s assets are composed of U.S. stocks and 28%, consist stocks from advanced economies, while emerging markets take the remaining 23%. The sectors targeted by CIC are those of finance (22%) and IT and computers (12%).

CIC is an active member of the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds (IFSWF) and hosted the third annual meeting of that organization in Beijing in May 2011. Jin Liqun, Chairman of Board of Supervisors of CIC and its subsidiary Central Huijin Investment Ltd. (September 2008 – May 2013), presided over this meeting. CIC is proving to be a major player in the new investment vehicles known as sovereign wealth funds.

Richard Rousseau is Associate Professor at the American University of Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates. His research, teaching and consulting interests include Russian politics, Eurasian geopolitics, international political economy and globalization.

This article appeared at Foreign Policy Research Centre New Delhi (India) – Country-specific Study Project and is reprinted with permission.

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Forty years later, the two Congos will face off in the Africa Cup of Nations. The last time, the team of the Democratic Republic of Congo was Zaire and wore yellow and green shirts. Next Saturday, in the quarter finals in Equatorial Guinea, they will be wearing red and blue when they face their close neighbour, Republic of the Congo.

The story of soccer matches between the two is reconstructed today by the Jeune Afrique magazine, reminding that the last time Brazzaville’s team one 2-1.

Overall considering the final phases of the Cup of Africa, Saturday’s will be the fourth challenge. DR-Congo is currently in the lead with two victories under its belt, if you take into consideration that of 1972, when Kinshasa was the capital of Zaire of Mobutu Sese Seko.

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“I do not trust US policies and have not exchanged a word with them, this does not mean however that I would oppose a peaceful solution to conflicts or threats of war… Defending peace is a duty of all”, this is a passage from a letter by Fidel Castro, 88, addressed to the Federation of University Students, published by the official Granma news agency and read on Cuban State TV.

“Any peaceful or negotiated solution to the problems between the United States and the peoples or any people of Latin America that doesn’t imply force or the use of force should be treated in accordance with international norms and principles. We will always defend the cooperation and friendship with all peoples of the world, including our political opponents”, added Fidel, in a comment on the thaw in relations between Havana and Washington last December.

This marked a first comment in regard of the former Cuban leader, forced to pass powers to his brother Raúl for health reasons in 2006, breaking the silence after insistent rumours on his possible death. Rumours however in part set aside after the soccer legend Diego Maradona, a personal friend of Fidel, during a visit to Havana on January 13 said he had received a letter from the ‘líder máximo’.

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By Kerim Has*

Russia’s termination of South Stream and proposal for Turkish Stream has appeared as a result and also a necessity given the emerging geopolitical and geo-economic dynamics in Moscow-West relations. In addition to the difficulties faced by Gazprom (which were caused by the Third Energy Package in the European gas market), the Ukraine crisis and tough Western sanctions have required an update in Moscow’s own energy strategy. Moreover, ongoing work on building an EU Energy Union, which would standardize gas prices within the Union, have hastened Gazprom’s strategy.

Russia’s conditions on Turkish Stream can mainly be categorized within two fundamental and functional tasks. First, taking into account Moscow’s declining influence in Ukraine because of both coercive politics and objective factors such as Crimea’s annexation, the appearance of de facto “people’s republics” in eastern Ukraine, and the lack of ethnic Russia or supporters on territory under the control of the Kyiv government, it’s hard to imagine that Moscow will regain a strong position in the capital in either the short or medium terms. This requires Russia to take a fundamental step in rethinking transit routes, as well as the necessity to totally bypass Ukraine in its gas exports to the EU before the renewal of gas transit agreements with Kyiv in 2019.

Almost half of Russian gas exports to the EU already pass through Ukraine. The South Stream project did not assume the end of Ukraine’s transit position for Russian gas. However, Turkish Stream reckons Turkey will be the main transit country for Russian gas exports to Europe. Russia aims to transfer all of the gas it pumps through Ukraine to Turkish Stream and farther to Europe via a hub terminal built at the Turkey-Greece border.

Since Turkey is not an EU member and does not seem to aspire to membership soon, the proposed project is not bound by the EU energy objectives. Notwithstanding the fact that there is a high risk that Turkish dependency on Russian gas may increase and that there is also a divergence of approaches between Russia and Turkey on the Syria and Ukraine crises, the developing strategic relations between Ankara and Moscow and Putin and Erdogan pave the way for both countries to cooperate on this delicate issue.

On the other hand, the functional portions of the Russian proposal are based on economic concerns. According to its renewed energy strategy, Gazprom will not build pipelines to destination in EU countries. The EU’s complex energy bureaucracy and Russia’s new markets in the East for its gas, such as China, India and South Korea, have pushed Gazprom to feel much more freedom in its ability to change transit routes. The economy of Russia has suffered much because of Western sanctions and also declining oil prices—this implies it will invest less in the risky EU energy sector, including infrastructure. Actually, it’s estimated that Gazprom will save approximately $10 billion if it is not included in construction of the pipeline network in Europe that would be necessary to connect to Turkish Stream. Gazprom says that Europe should buy Russian gas at the Turkey-Greece border and build the necessary pipelines for the route and interconnectors if it really wants and needs this gas.

In this context, there are a few options the EU can take as a reply to these Russian conditions. First, the EU’s dependency on Russian gas is still so high (namely 27% of all of the gas consumed in the bloc) and at the same time it seems it will be difficult to considerably decrease this dependency in the short term, therefore the EU should maintain the so-called Ukraine-inclusive policy in its energy strategy. For the foreseeable future, Ukraine will and should remain one of the main transit routes for Russian gas to Europe. To achieve this aim, the EU should play a more constructive role in the Ukraine-Russia gas crises. The economic instability in Ukraine costs much more for the EU than for Russia. Moscow doesn’t have a chance to sell gas transited via Ukraine to any other market until 2019 because of the tight economic conditions in the country and the huge infrastructure investment requirements for the new markets. This means that an opportunity for bargaining between the EU and Russia still exists.

Second, if Russia insists on Turkish Stream, the EU can undertake to determine the exact route and capacity of the new pipeline. Greece’s disadvantageous geographic location for Central European “gas-hungry countries” will force the EU to negotiate on this issue with Russia. Also, Romania’s potential energy reserves in the Black Sea could be activated quickly. As well, the TANAP project and the possibility of gas from Cyprus, Israel, Iran or Iraq should force Russia to rethink the capacity of Turkish Stream.

As a result, it can be said that the EU’s reply to the Russian conditions for Turkish Stream mostly depends on whether it can reach its own potential and create a balance between its aims and capacity.

*Kerim Has, USAK Center for Eurasian Studies

This article was first published in The Polish Institute of International Affairs.

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There is certainly exciting news from Greece, with confirmation that the leftist coalition party Syriza has won a decisive victory, and, with the help of just one small party, the Independent Greeks Party, is assured of a parliamentary majority. That means Syriza’s dynamic marxist leader, the 40-year-old former student radical
 Alexis Tsipras, will shortly become Greece’s prime minister, pledged to undo years of crippling austerity and to turn Greece back into a real democracy, instead of a scene of corporate pillage.

Leaders of Europe’s corrupt parties — both conservative and socialist or, in Britain’s case, “New Labor,” — are clearly anxious at the electoral success of a genuine leftist party in one of the countries of the European Union, particularly as there are growing leftist movements in larger countries, including Italy, Spain, France, Portugal and elsewhere. These new movements explicitly reject the tired and corrupted duopoly of conservative and socialist parties that have been taking turns running Europe as an adjunct to the US for generations.

It remains to be seen how the main governments in Europe, and particularly in Germany, try to deal with the new political reality in Greece. They and the bureaucrats and bankers in Brussels, Luxembourg, London, Paris and Bonn, are in a tricky spot: if they simply thumb their noses at Greece’s new leaders, refuse to reduce that country’s crushing debt, and force Greece to quit the Euro currency zone, they will encourage other countries — notably Spain and Italy — to consider quitting the Euro too, and the whole notion of Europe as a political/economic entity will founder. If they accommodate Syriza’s demands for a better arrangement, with debt forgiveness and aid to promote the Greek economy, they will be hit with similar demands from the much larger struggling economies of Italy and Spain, not to mention other troubled members of the EU like Portugal, Ireland Poland and other countries from the former Warsaw Pact.

The main point in all this is that Greek voters have tossed a flash-bang grenade into the prevailing neo-liberal consensus that the way to “reform” economies is to impose austerity, cutting back on social programs, hammering wages, boosting unemployment, and privatizing long-public functions like transit, education, roads and bridges and health care. Europe will probably never be the same, whichever way Greece ultimately goes.

The question is, will any of this matter in the US?

Certainly the same condition prevails here in the US that has prevailed in Europe, only here the corruption of the two-party duopoly is far more advanced, the mechanics of democracy are more degraded, and the austerity imposed on the broad public, as well as on the poor is far, far worse than in Europe. There a legacy of socialist policies from the post-World War II era that continues to offer at least some protection in the form of longer and more generous unemployment payments, free or low-cost higher education, nationalized healthcare schemes of one kind or another, generous retirement programs, quality public transit and often subsidized housing so that poverty is not as grinding as it is on this side of the Atlantic.

In the US, we have only the barest minimum of social programs, often referred to tellingly as a “safety net” rather than a support system — and as a “tattered” safety net at that. With US real unemployment still stuck at 18-24 percent, depending upon whom one is counting — a staggering tally of suffering and despair that actually rivals that in Greece — with the government cutting back on food stamp support, and with actual welfare programs largely gone, limited as they are to a lifetime maximum of five years, the poor in America, who now number 50 million (about 15 % of the population), are struggling just to survive, with little expectation that they or their children will ever see their lot improve. Meanwhile, as the New York Times reports today, the middle class, which the two capitalist parties (and most recently the president in his State of the Union speech) are fond of touting as the “bedrock” of American society, is continuing to shrink, falling from 53% of the population in 1967 to 45% in 2000 and to just 43% in 2013. And that’s not because people in the middle, defined as households earning between $35,000 and $100,000 per year, have moved up into the high-income bracket. It’s because they’ve been falling into poverty, defined in this report as earning less than $35,000 a year (slightly more than two parents working full-time at minimum wage could hope to earn).

Where, given this clear crisis faced by most Americans, is the US version of Greece’s Syriza Party? Where too is this country’s Tsipras?

Syriza — actually an acronym for the Greek words Coalition of the Radical Left — arose quickly to this position of power in Greece (it nearly won the last election), by bringing together a fairly disparate group of 13 radical and left-wing political groups and factions ranging from democratic socialist and green-oriented to communist, trotskyist and maoist leftists and even some anti-European groups that might be considered more anarchist than leftist. It’s remarkable achievement could and should provide an object lesson to the splintered and often obsessively dogmatic and “purist” left in the US, which has historically had a difficult time uniting around common issues that could help it actually achieve power. (Example: could carnivorous US socialists and labor activists link arms with vegan animal rights radicals, radical feminists with Catholic leftists who oppose abortion, anti-war activists with organized labor that includes unions in the arms industry?) Because if the goal is actually grasping power, and not just protesting, such challenging compromises are necessary to build a viable movement and viable political party that can mount campaigns, field candidates, and win elections.

Too much can be made of the importance of individual leaders, but then again, the importance of a charismatic leader in developing a movement can also be underestimated. Clearly Alexis Tsipras, as leader of Syriza, has captured the trust and the imagination of the Greek public, and that has helped to galvanize support for the party in its bold campaign to confront the bankers and bureaucrats of Europe and the International Monetary Fund.

Looking around the field here in the US, there doesn’t seem to be anyone remotely like Tsipras at the moment. Both Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren might be considered contenders, but each has at least one crippling flaw. Sanders, an independent self-described socialist who represents the state of Vermont, while staying officially outside of the Democratic party (while voting with the Democratic Caucus in the Senate), is an honest and serious guy but has thus far consistently proven himself unwilling to stand against the massive trillion-dollar US military budget and the imperial foreign policy that it supports. He limits himself instead to decrying Pentagon “waste,” when the truth is nearly the entire US military budget, equal in size to what the rest of the world spends on its military, is “waste.” That is not an issue that Tsipras and Syriza in Greece have had to confront. (Not that Greece too doesn’t have an outsized military, but the Greek military is not trying to occupy other countries or engaging in foreign military adventures.)

Warren, who represents Massachusetts, in addition to likewise being silent about the massive US military budget and its imperial ambitions, is also firmly embedded in the wholly corrupted and pro-capitalist Democratic Party. While her stance against the big banks is excellent, and appears to be heart-felt, she is kind of a one-pony show, not someone trying to upend the whole corrupt political and economic system.

It seems clear that if there is ever to be a real third-party left alternative to the centuries-long and ongoing democratic fraud of a corrupt two-corporate-party duopoly in the US, its leader will have to be someone new, unafraid to truly challenge the status quo, and the Establishment in Wall Street and in Washington, Arlington and Langley.

The Greeks are showing us the way. Many in Europe may soon follow. Will Americans eventually wake up and rise up too?

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India and China, the two most populous countries, are perhaps condemned to understand each other and live together, i.e., overcoming their traditional military rivalry (which is thought to have peaked in the border war of 1962). It is now a mutual necessity for them to peacefully resolve their territorial disputes and develop deeper economic ties.

Two key factors have contributed to the improved understanding between these countries. First, there is a growing convergence between their foreign policies and strategic interests, as we have seen in recent years in forums such as the G20 and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economic grouping. India and China are both advocates of multilateralism and multipolarity as keys to regional and global stability and both have prioritized the need to combat poverty and raise their per capita income levels. Second, there is an economic complementarity between the two countries which is expected to significantly increase in the future. This article argues that this complementarity is important and ever growing, to the degree that one can speak of a “Chindia” in the making.

Trade in Goods

The first striking fact is that bilateral trade in goods between India and China has grown considerably in recent years, which in itself is a sign of growing complementarity and division of labor. It grew from just $3 billion in 2000 to $63 billion in 2010, and further improved to $73.9 billion in 2011. Both countries have set a trade target of $100 billion in 2015, which appears reachable barring some catastrophe or a drop in the level of trust. This trade has been, is and will probably remain based upon a “vertical” type of transnational division of labor, i.e., China exchanges manufactured goods for India’s raw materials. We cannot totally rule out the possibility that India will also begin exporting a significant quantity of manufactured products to China one day, though, and this trade would be of an inter-industry rather than an intra-industry nature.

According to UN Comtrade Database, exports from India to China and India’s imports from China are substantially different in nature. India’s main exports to its eastern neighbor are mainly iron ore, nonferrous metals and textile fibers (especially cotton). In contrast, its imports from China are mainly telecommunication equipment, electrical and industrial machinery and equipment needed to generate electricity.

Between 2007 and 2011 the value of India’s exports to China increased from $14.6 billion to $23.4 billion, but that of imports from China grew even faster, from $24 billion to $50.5 billion, according to data from Comtrade. Therefore, in 2011 India ran a $27.1 billion deficit in its trade with China.i

Indian official statistics differ in part from those provided by Comtrade Database. According to the DGCIS, the official Indian source of trade information, India’s deficit with China has grown from $16,270 billion in 2007-08 to $39,650 billion in 2011-12, equivalent to 2% of GDP. India’s bilateral trade deficit with China is an important factor driving India’s effort to change the traditional structure of its exports to China, which includes rice, medicines, automobiles, services and Information and Communications Technology (ICT). On the import side, there have been cases of Indian protectionism in recent years, such as anti-dumping measures and the higher tariffs imposed on electrical machinery purchases from China.

The reason for India’s concern however is not so much the deficit with China as its total trade deficit, which has increased from $13 billion in 2000 to $150 billion (6% of GDP) in 2011, despite strong growth in exports (by 19.3% on average between 2000 and 2011, almost as great as the 20.1% average in China during that period). The deficit with China accounts for less than 20% of the total deficit, while the energy import component covers no less than 65%. However, if we exclude energy, the deficit with China is equivalent to more than half of the total deficit.

Bilateral Trade in Services

As is well known, India has an advantage over China in the export of ICT. Although in 2012 China’s total service exports ($190 billion) were higher than India’s ($148 billion), ICT exports accounted for 49% of total exports in China, while 70% in India.ii

The risk faced by India is an excessive concentration of its exports in the ICT sector. It is not advisable to rely exclusively on this sector to absorb the problem of surplus agricultural labor. India, therefore, must develop its industrial sector to balance its labor market.iii

In the computer software and services sector, India occupies a larger share (8%) of the world market than China (6%), despite the important gap in GDP per capita between the two countries. Not surprisingly, the leaders in this sector are the United States (39%), Europe (34%) and Japan (12%). With regards to computer software and services exports, the main difference between India and China is that the U.S. is the main buyer of Indian products (accounting for 52% of its ICT exports in 2011-12), followed by the UK (21%), Canada (4%) and Germany (2%). In contrast, China’s main customers were very similar to those who bought Chinese manufactured goods (the EU, U.S. and ASEAN).iv

Foreign Direct Investment

The volume of cross-border investments is extremely small, considering the size of the two countries’ GDP and FDI. It is estimated that in 2011Chinese FDI stock in India was only $580 million (only 0.14% of the total FDI inflow) while Indian FDI stock in China was significantly less, at $460 million.v China was only India’s 30th largest investor between April 2000 and June 2013. Only 10 Chinese companies have built, or are building, factories in India and approximately 100 have offices with representatives. These figures pale when compared to the total inward FDI in China ($366 billion) and India ($111 billion) in 2011. Countries like the United Kingdom, with $22 billion in foreign direct investment in India, Japan with $17 billion, The Netherlands with $13 billion, and even debt-stricken Spain, with $1.9 billion, are much more active than China in the Indian market. Most of the inward FDI in China comes from other Asian countries and is concentrated in the manufacturing sector, while the bulk of India’s inward FDI originates from the U.S. and Europe and is concentrated in services.

During his three-day visit to India in September 2014 President Xi Jinping pledged to try to remedy this imbalance. The Chinese President promised that China will make $100 billion in investments over the next five years, essentially to build industrial parks and bullet trains. This is reflective of India’s growing appetite for everything Chinese, from phones to machinery.vi

Will There Be Complementarity?

Many analysts estimate that manufactured products will soon form the bulk of India’s exports, a change that could adversely affect China’s industrial sector given the difference in wages between the two countries. In 2011, the monthly average salary in each country was estimated to be $656 in China and $295 in India. Some analysts also believe that China could soon replicate its extraordinary success in exporting finished goods overseas in the ICT sector, thereby coming into direct competition with Indian ICT exports. This thesis suggests that China and India will progressively compete with one another – in domestic and foreign markets – at a much higher level than currently.

However, despite some forays into manufactured goods exports (for example in the automotive industry), India is not likely to compete with China in the manufacturing sector any time soon. The causes of this are many, but the primary one is that China’s industrial sector is much more competitive than India’s, as competitiveness is not only related to wage levels but also productivity levels. This comparative advantage is likely to remain, as China has made considerable progress in recent years in establishing a transport and communications infrastructure in the countryside. The jump in Chinese salaries, currently happening in the coastal industrial regions, will not necessarily translate into a relocation of foreign businesses from China since there are already cheaper places to produce industrial goods, such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia or Indonesia.

On the other hand, a major growth in China’s ICT exports is unlikely. China has several disadvantages in this sector compared with India: it lacks qualified engineers and programmers, staff with good English proficiency are a rarity, there are not enough dynamic private ICT enterprises such as India’s Wipro, Infosys, TCS, etc., and the fast-growing domestic market, the result of higher purchasing power and the refocusing of Beijing’s economic policy towards domestic demand, has had the effect of boosting domestic consumption rather than exports.

With respect to FDI, India and China are competing to attract it and likely to remain doing so for some time. FDI in China is much higher than in India ($127 billion in China and $28 billion India in 2013, according to UNCTAD).vii The source countries/regions of FDI in both China and India are very diverse. India’s main investors, not excluding tax haven countries, are Singapore, the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Germany, France and the UAE. For its part, China receives most of its investments from other Asian countries. Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan are top of the list, followed by the United States, South Korea, Taiwan, the Netherlands, France and Germany. Finally, foreign investors have different sectoral preferences: they invest in the industrial sector in the case of China, while focusing more on the service sector (software and telecommunications) in India.

Political Collaboration

In September 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping promised Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Indian people to take Sino-Indian relations to a “new level”. In March 2012, Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared that year to be the “Year of India-China Friendship and Cooperation” in order to strengthen their bilateral relationship. Hu presented a five-point plan to improve this relationship: more high-level contacts, enhanced cooperation, promotion of cultural and people-to-people (P2P) relations, ironing out differences to ensure more peaceful and stable relations and more coordination in international affairs and forums. The latter objective has been in large part achieved, since India and China collaborate meaningfully in forums such as the G20 and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).viii

But in September 2014 Prime Minister Modi was more reticent towards the Chinese offer to intensify bilateral cooperation. Three issues are of great concern to the Indian government: increasing Chinese investment in India, especially in infrastructure projects; agreements to enhance Indian export to China and in this way reduce India’s trade deficit with the “Middle Kingdom”; and the urgent resolution of the longstanding border dispute dating back to 1962. The latter issue cast a shadow over Xi’s visit, as Modi’s government claimed that the Chinese army had made incursion near Chumar in the disputed Ladakh/Aksai Chin region just a few days before Xi’s arrival.

One of Xi’s objectives in visiting India was to counter Washington’s and Tokyo’s efforts to strategically isolate China in South and East Asia. The U.S. and Japan have hasten their anti-China agenda since Modi’s election in May 2014. At the end of August of the same year Modi went on a five-day tour of Japan during which New Delhi and Tokyo elevated their relationship to a “Special Strategic Global Partnership”. A week later, Modi was in Washington where he received an enthusiastic welcome from the Obama Administration. For the past decade, U.S. administrations have aggressively curried favor with India, Japan and Australia in order to contain the economic and military expansion of China. Military assistance has been offered to India to boost its presence in the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, the South China Sea and Central Asia. In the months leading up to Modi’s trip to Washington, American officials sought to convince New Delhi to agree on the integration of the two countries’ militaries through the joint development and production of advanced weapons systems.

Aware of U.S.-Japanese political and military maneuvers in India, Beijing is making every effort to thwart them. The Chinese President repeated to his Indian counterpart that India should see only benefits from closer commercial ties with China. He pledged to invest $20 billion in India’s infrastructure, especially railways and industrial parks, over the next five years. China is now India’s largest external trade partner, but in 2013 India’s current account balance with China ran a deficit of $30 billion. Xi promised to taken steps to tackle this trade problem by removing obstacles to imports from India, particularly of agricultural products and pharmaceuticals, an industry in which India is a world leader.

A $20 billion investment in infrastructure would certainly bring Sino-Indian economic ties to another level. However huge, this sum of money, some analysts in the Indian media complained, is still less than the $35 billion Japan promised in August 2014.

Since 2000, Chinese companies’ total investments in India have reached only $400 million. Indian officials, because of security concerns, have repeatedly put up obstacles to Chinese investment, particularly in infrastructure projects. The Modi government promises to quickly implement governance reforms and that should facilitate Chinese investment. However, it is unlikely that New Delhi and Beijing will reach an agreement similar to one with Japan, according to which “two Japanese officials will be appointed to a special branch of Modi’s Prime Minister’s Office devoted to expediting Japanese investments”.ix

In September 2014 Xi invited India to work with China on the “Maritime Silk Road” project. This project consists of building port facilities and road and rail transport networks in South and Southeast Asia with the objective of gaining access to fossil energy and other raw materials together with boosting trade. But Modi did not react favorably to this invitation. American officials speculate that the “Maritime Silk Road”, which they had previously dubbed the “String of Pearls,” aims at building facilities to increase China’s military presence in the Indian Ocean region. India’s military-security establishment concurs with the American claims and that can explain New Delhi’s reluctance to participate in the Maritime Silk Road project.

The Chinese are also interested in establishing a stronger partnership with the Indian on the world stage, particularly in international forums like the IMF and the G20. “Both China and India are influential countries in the world. When our two nations speak with one voice, the whole world will listen attentively,”x declared Xi in one of his speeches. Xi demonstrated his good intentions with a pledge to support India’s full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional alliance led by China and Russia and established to counter the U.S.’s expanding influence in Central and South Asia. Currently, India has only observer status in the SCO.

Despite these laudable statements of good intent, there are striking deficiencies and idiosyncrasies in India-China relations. For instance, there are no direct flights between Mumbai and Beijing or Shanghai, in part because tourism is almost nonexistent between the two countries – only about half a million people pass from one country to the other every year. Also, given the low level of bilateral trade, it makes little sense that India has approved restrictions on imports from China, such as anti-dumping measures and higher tariffs on telecommunications products and electrical machinery. Even more questionable is India’s decision to restrict rice sales to China, justified by the inadequate internal supply of this commodity, which tends to be only occasional (dependent on monsoon rain). More generally, Indians have an excessive fear of an invasion of low-priced Chinese manufactured goods, which could interrupt the development of the infant Indian industrial sector; despite all indications that the era of cheap Chinese exports may be drawing to a close. But according to the Indian elite, equally threatening, for national security reasons, are Chinese direct investments.
Tendencies

Nevertheless, there remains an intrinsic complimentarity between the two economies. The most optimistic Indian analysts estimate that India could soon develop a powerful industrial export sector, especially since China is on the verge of transforming its economy from a labor-intensive and low-technology one to a capital-intensive, high value-added and high-technology-based one. They also believe that China’s massive investments in health care and education will require the purchasing of considerable amounts of medical products, equipment and pharmaceutical products. This situation suits India well, as it has a comparative advantage in these areas. India has a knowledge-based economy, and therefore China will also be ready to access some of the hundreds of millions of English training manuals it produces. In addition, India is able to provide legal consulting services and has global level marketing and advertising expertise. According to that analysis, India could greatly benefit from the continuing boom in China.

While the massive export of Indian health care and pharmaceutical products is a plausible scenario, India, however, has still a long way to go before it can massively produce and export the labor-intensive and low-technology products China also requires. The countries with the greatest capacity to benefit from growth in this sector of Chinese demand are Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Myanmar, not India. For instance, the manufacturing sector accounts for 27% of Indonesia’s GDP, 20% of Vietnam’s and 18% of Bangladesh’s, while in India this indicator is only 15%.xi In addition, although the decline in labor-intensive and low-technology Chinese coastal industries is becoming more apparent, it is still possible that these industries will move to the interior of the country where a huge unskilled population is still to be tapped.

The view that India is a future China in the making and that China will soon become the main international ICT supplier is not supported by evidence. On the other hand, the booming bilateral trade in goods ($73.9 billion in 2011 to $100 billion in 2015), the expanding trade in capital goods (iron, nonferrous metals and fiber versus machinery, tools, buildings and other capital goods), and India’s determination to reduce the bilateral deficit (through the sale of more rice, medicines, automobiles, and ICT services) are signs that point towards a process of gradually increasing complementarity and division of labor between India and China. Within a decade or two the world economy could be characterized as one economy called “Chindia” rather than “Chinamerica”.

Richard Rousseau is Associate Professor at the American University of Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates. His research, teaching and consulting interests include Russian politics, Eurasian geopolitics, international political economy and globalization.

This article appeared at Foreign Policy Research Centre New Delhi (India) – Country-specific Study Project and is reprinted with permission.

The post India And China: A ‘Pair’ In The Making – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Yagmur Ersan

The first ministerial meeting of the Forum of China and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) was held from January 8-9, 2015 in Beijing. Three presidents, President Luis Guillermo Solís of Costa Rica, President Rafael Correa of Ecuador and President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, as well as Prime Minister Perry Christie of the Bahamas and 22 foreign ministers came together for the first China-CELAC ministerial meeting. Consisting of representatives of all countries in the Americas except the United States and Canada, CELAC is a coalition of 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries, which was formed in 2011 by the initiative of Venezuela to enhance integration and reduce the economic and political influence of the United States in the region. The meeting was very crucial for the countries of Latin American, particularly those that export oil, as many aim to increase the amount of oil exported to China and attract Chinese investment to their countries. This development arises as the fall of oil prices, which have plunged by more than 50 percent over the last six months, has come to hit the economies of oil producing countries in Latin America such as Venezuela, Equator and Brazil.

Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the opening ceremony of the ministerial meeting stating that China and CELAC have agreed on a five-year cooperation plan that will be applied in the realms of politics, trade, security, investment, energy, finance, infrastructure, agriculture, science, industry and people to people exchange. “All sides should keep friendly consultation, hold common development and consider interests from all sides in order to ensure a firm political foundation for the cooperation,” he said. Other crucial outcomes of the meeting were the Beijing Declaration and the Regulations on China-CELAC forum.

Latin America is important for China in terms of energy, raw materials and as an expanding market for Chinese manufactured goods. China’s imports from the region have dramatically increased after 2001 when China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The volume of Latin American imports to China has increased nearly twenty-fold from 2001 to 2013. While the economies of the U.S. and Europe have slowed following the 2008 financial crisis, Latin America has come to be seen as an expanding market for China. The volume of Chinese exports to the region has increased more than fifteen-fold during the same 2001-2013 period. [1]

China invests in many sectors throughout Latin America, whether energy, agriculture or infrastructure. In this sense, the ministerial meeting saw a strengthening of this dynamic as Xi Jinping articulated that China would raise the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) allotted to Latin American countries to constitute a total of $250bn over the next decade. This is a considerable boost when noting that Chinese FDI in the region was $22.7bn in 2011. China was the third largest investor in the region in 2011 as it accounted for 9% of the total FDI received, following the U.S (17%) and the Netherlands (13%). [2]Compared with the bilateral trade volumes, China’s FDI in the region is not that significant. In 2010, the share of Chinese FDI in the region was only 1.28%.

China also pledged to nearly double its trade with the region, encompassing $500bn by 2025, as compared to the $260bn that was seen in 2013. Although the region does not constitute a big share of China’s total trade, at only around 15 percent, trade relations do have the potential to improve. On the other hand, for the Latin American countries, China is a crucial export destination. For instance, China is the largest export partner for Brazil, Chile and Peru and second for Venezuela, Argentina, Costa Rica and Cuba. Here, although China-Latin America trade relations have been gradually increasing, they are still unevenly distributed throughout the countries of the region and their various sectors. For example, China primarily imports copper, iron ore, oil and soybeans from the region, and these resources tend to come from Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela.

Chile signed a free trade agreement with China in 2005, and China became Chile’s largest export destination in 2007. Chile exports a great amount of copper to China, which accounts for almost one third of China’s total copper imports. China also became Brazil’s largest trading partner in 2009, with the latter primarily exporting raw materials such as oil and iron ore. Brazil holds a significant share of China’s import market in terms of iron ore, constituting over a quarter of China’s total iron import. For Brazil, however, China is perhaps of disproportionate importance as the final destination for more than half of its domestic iron. Argentina also exhibits a similar dynamic as it exports more than half of its soy to China. Latin American exports have kept pace with the demand for these resources in China. Therefore, in the near future, it seems natural that as China’s demand continues to rise, its interest in the region will follow suit.

Another important country is Venezuela. During the ministerial meeting, China agreed to invest $20bn into the Venezuelan economy that is slumping as a result of the declining oil prices. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced that this money would be used for housing, energy, infrastructure and technology projects. Since 2007, China has provided $50bn worth of loans to Venezuela in return for oil, with the latter exporting around 500,000 barrels of oil per day to the former. Crude oil accounts for 95% of Venezuela’s total exports, thus, the fall in oil prices has negatively affected the country’s economy, precipitating rapid inflation, declining production and various import shortages. Hence, the China-CELAC meeting was crucial for Caracas, which hopes to breathe new life into its economy via Chinese loans. The fact that China was included in Maduro’s tour of various OPEC countries, including Saudi Arabia aimed at initiating discussions on the falling of global oil prices clearly displays the importance of the Venezuela attaches to its energy trade with China. Nonetheless, there remains no clear sign that oil prices will stabilize any time soon. Here, increasing the amount of oil that is exported to China and thus receiving more loans from the country has become a priority for Venezuela.

Within this context there are signals that the Chinese economy is beginning to slow. However, according to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, China is still the world’s second-largest oil importer (5.6b/d), preceded by the U.S. (7.7b/d), and it seems this demand will continue to increase. Hence, on the one hand, China aims to deepen its cooperation in the energy sector with Venezuela; yet, on the other hand, it would like to become involved in developing oil and gas fields in Brazil, Ecuador and Argentina. In the future, if oil prices remain at their current levels or decline further, China-Latin America relations have the potential to become all the more intimate.

Although there is great potential for energy cooperation between China and the Latin American countries, there are also some challenges. For China, one of the most crucial problems is the economic disadvantage associated with the long-distance transportation of oil across the Atlantic Ocean. In addition, China’s limited refining capacity, the cost of oil and gas extraction, some Latin American countries’ domestic security environments and the influence of the U.S. in the region raise concerns for China. As developing economies themselves, Latin American countries also have their own concerns, whether they be the rapid development of the Chinese economy, the boost of China’s share of global trade or China’s strategy of investing in many regions and many sectors and providing development assistance to a plethora of developing economies. China’s share of total global imports/exports has increased from 6.6% to 10.0% while the share of the U.S has decreased from 11.4% to 9.8% between 2005 and 2011. [3] Hence, Latin American countries are worried about the possibility that China could come to dominate the international market with its growing economy.

Notes:
1.Trade Map Statistics

2. World Economic Forum, Latin America, http: //reports.weforum.org/global-agenda-council-2012/councils/latin-america/

3.International Trade Statistics 2013, World Trade Organization

The post China-Latin America Relations And The Fall Of Oil Prices – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

(Kigali, Rwanda) — Honorable Speaker of the Senate, Honorable Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Honorable Members of Parliament, Ministers, Diplomats, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen.

Good afternoon—Mwiriwe.

I would like to thank Honorable Donatille Mukabalisa and Minister Gatete for their kind introduction, and members of parliament and the people of Rwanda for their warm hospitality.

Rwanda

It is a special privilege to be here in Rwanda and speaking before this parliament. Your country boasts immense wealth of nature, people, and culture. Over the past two days, I have had the opportunity of experiencing myself the beauty of Rwanda’s “mille collines”.

Sublime beauty, but a setting inevitably tinged with sadness for a first-time visitor to your country. This morning, I had the sobering experience of visiting your Genocide Memorial. The shock is profound, and the words “never again” must reverberate in all who see it. But as President Kagame said during the recent commemoration: “Twenty years ago, Rwanda had no future, only a past. Today, half of all Rwandans are under 20”. This is the future that is before you—a future for all Rwandans.

As the Rwandan proverb goes: “Umusógongero w’îsí ni ûmubâno” – savoring the world only takes place when you get along. The world makes no sense without friendship.

Today Rwanda can take pride in having overcome extraordinary adversity. You are building a resilient and inclusive economy. This parliament is a case in point—more than 60 percent of you are women. This is the world’s highest and more than double the average for parliaments in other countries. I am proud to stand before you!

To build on these achievements, Rwanda has chosen to embark on another transition—to become a middle income country. A country that is more self-reliant, more export oriented, and with a vibrant private sector. To achieve this vision, Rwanda needs to continue to lead by example and keep a strong focus on inclusive policies.

President Kagame once said: “Rwandans know how to talk, how to walk, and how to dance.”

So in bringing the three themes I want to discuss today closer to your hearts, I will appeal to Rwanda’s rich dance culture:

(i) First, the Intore or victory dance – a stock take of Rwanda’s success within a regional and global context;

(ii) Second, the Umuganura or harvest dance – a look at the lessons that Rwanda today can offer to its peers in Africa and the world; and

(iii) Finally, the Ikinimba dance – the commitment to the future – some thoughts on what might help in managing the transition to a stronger, more diversified and more inclusive economy.

1. The Road from Mozambique—good news, some headwinds ahead

Let me start with the conference that the IMF co-hosted in Mozambique last year called “Africa Rising.” This event brought together officials, business executives and civil society from 42 African countries and many other parts of the world.

Minister Gatete and Governor Rwangombwa joined us in Maputo, and the discussions reflected the much more upbeat narrative on Africa that is slowly but surely asserting itself.

Most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa showed extraordinary resilience in the face of the Great Recession in 2009. In fact, many have bucked the recent global trend of slow growth by expanding at a healthy clip for ten years or more. Sound policies, stronger institutions, and a more educated population have positioned Africa as a major investment destination for both advanced and emerging economies. In a growing number of countries, we are indeed seeing “Africa Rising”.

Your country epitomizes that narrative. Since the early 2000s, Rwanda has grown at an average of about 8 percent—well above the regional average and on par with emerging Asia. Per capita income has more than trebled, and while poverty is still high—at about 45 percent of the population—the poorest have shared the benefits of growth. This is a remarkable feat—a genuine Intore story.

Still, as many African policymakers emphasized in Mozambique, important challenges remain for the region. Many countries need to make growth more inclusive and invest more in human capital to equip future generations to join the global economy. Africa also faces a huge infrastructure gap, which must be financed in a sustainable manner. And let us not forget that some countries are still grappling with fragility and failing to harness the benefits of rising prosperity on the continent.

These challenges are surmountable. But they become more daunting in an uncertain global environment. So, as I said in Mozambique, just as Africa is “rising,” it should be “watching” as well.

Why do I call for vigilance? Because according to our latest forecasts, global economic activity this year will be weaker than we had projected only a few months ago. And this is despite the boost from lower oil prices. With the exception of the United States and the United Kingdom, momentum is slowing in many advanced and emerging economies, including China—one of Africa’s main trading partners.

This slower growth has implications for an Africa that is now more integrated into the global economy than ever before. Growth forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa have been pared down due to lower oil and commodity prices. Still, the overall outlook remains promising, and at close to 5 percent, the region is expected to post the world’s second highest growth rate in 2015.

Even so, a number of downside risks loom large, with the potential for increased volatility and vulnerability, including in Africa.

Consider a scenario of persistently lower oil prices. This may be a boon for oil importers, putting more money in the pockets of households and providing governments with the u opportunity to reduce costly and inefficient energy subsidies. Oil exporters, however, will see increased external and balance sheet vulnerabilities.

Consider another scenario that we have been talking about for some time and that is now imminent—that of monetary policy normalization in the United States. Even if this process is well-managed and well-communicated – and I believe that it has been and will be – there could be negative effects for emerging markets and global financial stability. African economies could also be impacted.

Of course, compounding these risks is the persistence of geopolitical tensions as we have seen in Ukraine, the Middle East, and even in Africa.

What is the bottom line? Sustaining growth is a first order priority—reigniting it where it is deficient, and supporting it where it is waning. Sound policy fundamentals are paramount, although policy specifics will differ by country.

So what does the current situation portend for Rwanda? Your country today is taking on the future with a strong foundation laid over the past two decades. It is a positive example for countries striving to exit fragility, offering valuable lessons on how homegrown initiatives can be adapted to promote inclusiveness and social cohesion. And it is demonstrating leadership in reforming the business environment, building investments and jobs.

2. Rwanda today—a house in order, leading by example

This brings me to my second topic—the “harvests” that Rwanda can offer the world and future generations.

Let me start with where we stand. Rwanda today is a dynamic economy with good governance standards. Second generation reforms have helped sustain growth, and even accelerate it beyond the rebound that came after 1994. Women have been empowered and now offer a practical case of “gender in economics”. Rwanda is an economic success story.

This is not accidental. It is the upshot of strong and concerted policies and a deliberate focus on inclusiveness.

Prudent fiscal and monetary policies were instrumental in maintaining macroeconomic stability. This was a necessary pre-condition for growth, but not sufficient for inclusive growth. A clear focus on inclusive policies and institutions was essential.

Let me highlight two aspects.

Let’s start with how fiscal policy played a role. Fiscal space from debt relief was efficiently used, allowing a scale up in priority spending—that is spending on health, education and social protection. This type of spending is now about 13 percent of GDP, up from just 4 percent in 1999. In fact, protecting social spending from competing fiscal pressures is a key feature of IMF support, including in Rwanda.

At the same time, resources from foreign aid—which remain at about 15 percent of GDP—have been effectively used for economic development and poverty reduction. So sound economic management is key.

Still, and perhaps what struck me most about Rwanda, is the unrelenting focus on homegrown interventions to make growth more inclusive and improve social services, especially for women and the rural poor.

I find Rwanda’s approach to empowering women particularly telling. As you probably know, the status of women in the economy and society is a topic dear to my heart. Rwanda is setting standards.

The parliament is a clear example of how much the gender gap in political representation has been narrowed. Women have broken glass ceilings in other spheres as well, making up about 30 percent of ministers and half of Supreme Court justices. Today, girls have the same access to primary and secondary education as boys, and Rwanda is well on its way to achieve the Millennium Development Goal for education.

How were these results achieved? Through a set of legal and institutional frameworks that ensure that gender equality is mainstreamed in all social and economic aspects.

Not only does the 2003 Constitution enshrine women representation, but there are laws that further ensure equality in land ownership and inheritance. Our own analysis has shown that education and legal rights are key to unleashing women’s full potential and their contribution to the economy.

Think of the “complete farmer” approach—another homegrown initiative that helped reduce rural poverty by focusing on raising agricultural productivity. Or the Girinka program—the one cow per poor family initiative—to overcome childhood malnutrition and ensure that the tide of prosperity lifts all boats.

I was also impressed by the reliance on Rwandan traditions that exalt social solidarity and inclusiveness. The Umuganda—the last Saturday of every month, where every adult contributes to a variety of civic duties in their communities—is an appealing way to foster social cohesion.

Like the tunes and beats of the umuganura dance, all these initiatives are part and parcel of Rwanda’s success—the harvest from its longstanding strong and inclusive policies.

But how about the future? How can we translate Rwanda’s current achievements into even stronger outlook?

3. Taking on the future—staying ahead of the curve

This brings me to my last topic—the key policies to accomplish Rwanda’s vision for the future. Without a doubt, Rwanda’s success has been impressive. But to achieve its goal of middle income status, its growth model will need to evolve.

Think of this evolution as the Ikinimba dance—celebrating youth and the commitment to a brighter future.

What are the key dimensions of a future growth model? I can see a three-pronged approach focusing on: (i) mobilizing domestic resources to reduce dependency on aid; (ii) encouraging private sector development to reduce reliance on the public sector; and (iii) harnessing the potential of regional integration to support export diversification and overcome geographic constraints.

The reform priorities articulated in the government’s 2020 Vision are appropriately aligned with this evolution. But let me highlight what I see as key policies along the three dimensions and how the Fund can help.

First dimension, fostering self-reliance. Mobilizing domestic revenues will be critical in creating fiscal space as reliance on aid gradually recedes. At 16 percent of GDP, the tax collection effort is still low compared to peers in Africa, and well below the 25 percent target set by the East African Community.

The Fund has been heavily engaged with Rwanda in providing technical assistance and capacity building in revenue administration and collection. We will continue this support to broaden the tax base and strengthen administration so that Rwanda can bridge this gap.

Second dimension, promoting the private sector. An efficient business climate is essential in fostering private sector job creation and structural transformation.

Rwanda has made important strides over the years, such as cutting red tape for construction permits, making it easier to get electricity, and strengthening the legal rights of borrowers and lenders. At 46 out of 189 countries in 2015, Rwanda is now in the top three sub-Saharan performers according to the World Bank Doing Business Indicators.

Even so, infrastructure gaps continue to hold back the private sector from flourishing. In particular, key infrastructure projects in transportation, water and energy need to come on stream to unlock its full potential. And of course, all of this needs to done within a reasonable resource envelope so as not to jeopardize hard-won debt sustainability.

Here again, the Fund has been engaged with the government in exploring optimal combinations of financing sources—increases in revenue and judicious resort to external borrowing—to finance critical infrastructure projects.

Equally important for the development of the private sector is the skilling of the labor force to reap the dividends from the demographic transition. Rwanda is again leading other countries in this aspect—it has moved beyond the focus on primary education to an emphasis on secondary level education for its citizens.

Third dimension, increasing export diversification. Rwanda needs to open up and reach out to its neighbors for its export-oriented businesses to innovate and flourish.

On the one hand, developing a vibrant non-agricultural sector may require some hand-holding. Supporting household enterprises and small and medium sized businesses through targeted “mentoring” and access to finance can be steps in the right direction.

On the other hand, export diversification hinges on successful access to markets. For a land-locked economy such as Rwanda, regional integration is a potent instrument to tap into bigger markets and new products. Deeper engagement in the East African Community would allow you to benefit from regional infrastructure projects in key areas, including power generation and transportation. These steps are surely critical in unlocking Rwanda’s growth potential.

Conclusion

Let me conclude.

The reforms I talked about are ambitious. Yet they are necessary to sustain Rwanda’s success into the future. And I am confident that policymakers will deliver. After all, they are bound by imihigo—another homegrown initiative to improve governance and service delivery to the broader public.

But you should rest assured that your country is not travelling alone. The Fund is proud to be Rwanda’s travel companion. We have been by your side—with financial assistance to help overcome the challenges of fragility and institution building, and with policy support program and technical assistance to cement the gains from macroeconomic stability.

And we will continue to be by Rwanda’s side as it strives toward its development goals. This is the “Africa partnering” we committed to in Mozambique—a pledge I restate today in front of you.

Thank you.

The post Rwanda: Taking On The Future, Staying Ahead Of The Curve – Speech appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Haneul Na’avi*

The massacre of employees at the Charlie Hebdo office in Paris has fostered growing animosity between Westerners and the Muslim world. In nationalist rhetoric, the champions of French Secularity vowed to cheat the death of free speech and never to bow to terrorism, and the agency retaliated with record sales of its publication, with more insults to the Prophet Mohammed.

Nevertheless, the country did bow, not to the demands of al-Qaeda of the Peninsula (AQAP), the Yemeni sect claiming responsibility for the attack. Seeing their golden opportunity, French government officials capitalized on the assault in order to incrementally impose a wave of draconian policies to stifle the freedoms of its own citizens.

Shortly after the “Je Suis Charlie” demonstrations, French PM Manuel Valls openly announced the Republic would commission “the creation of 2,680 new positions in French military and intelligence agencies to monitor the population”, which would cost “425 mln EUR over three years, and would rise close to 735 mln EUR after personnel costs.

The bill passed amid condemnation of the recent “Law Strengthening the Provision Relating to the Fight against Terrorism”, in which EU Counterterrorism Coordinator Gilles de Kerchove proclaimed “[it struck a] good balance between the demands of internal security and respect for individual liberties”. The bill, passed in the French Parliament last October, would bolster current UK and German anti-terror initiatives.

The law, opposed by the European Digital Rights organization and others, targets terrorism via “anti-democratic measures […] based on vague concepts whose application can easily be extended, such as “apologie du terrorisme” (apology of terrorism), and that restrict the right to freedom of movement (art. 1), freedom of the press (art. 4), freedom of information and communication (art. 9), the protection of journalistic sources (art. 11), the right to a fair trial (art. 13) or that are simply disproportionate (art. 12, 14)”, La Quadrature du Net stated.

The regional attacks were the perfect chance to implement this new law. Unpopular legislature, pushed by an equally unpopular President (currently 8% according to YouGov statistics), achieved several aims for the struggling figurehead: (1) distracting the public from economic and foreign policy misadventures and (2) strengthening support of the current administration by nationalizing sentiment of the French people. Meanwhile, the Charlie Hebdo massacre suspects, the Kouachi brothers, and Mali-born Amedy Coulibaly, the prime suspect in the kosher supermarket attack, reveal startling connections.

France’s long history with Syria goes back to the Franco-Syrian War, but their open procurement of weapons and cash for “moderate rebels” in Syria and Iraq forms the foundation of the current crisis. A London Guardian article detailed how Hollande’s administration worked to remove Assad, and subsequently, warned about the consequences. “Some of the French cash has reached Islamist groups who were desperately short of ammunition and who had increasingly turned for help towards al-Qaida aligned jihadist groups in and around Aleppo,” Chulov writes.

The French President’s dual imperative of funding rebels in Syria and Libya, but expanding attacks on current IS militants in Iraq, has incited intense anger from IS. “France has suggested that rebels should be given ‘defensive weapons’ to use against the regime and was the first country to recognise a recalibrated political body as the legitimate voice of [the] Syrian people,” the article continues. They were veritably successful, as that ‘recalibrated political body’ is now the Islamic State; an unrelenting enemy with roots in the Mujahideen Shura Council of Iraq.

Shortly after taking office, Holland pushed to invade Mali’s mineral-rich territories under the ruse of fighting terrorism. Just after the Sarkozy’s Libyan invasion, Hollande stepped in to extrapolate France’s imperialist agenda. Using the same tactics as in Syria, France, the US, and UK backed the Salafist, Tuareg al-Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb (AQIM), to overthrow Jamahiriya leader Muammar Gaddafi. Asad Ismi writes extensively about this occurrence:

AQIM is closely allied to the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), the main proxy used by France, the United States, and Britain in their overthrow of the Gaddafi regime in Libya. The AQIM militants fought alongside LIFG. Currently, France and the U.S. are also arming and financing Islamic fundamentalists in Syria to overthrow the secular government of Hafez Al-Assad.

While warned of refusing to cooperate with Syria or Iran, Hollande has deployed the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier in order to follow up on recent aerial assaults on IS targets in northeastern Iraq. Iraqi and Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s sanctioning of the Western-backed intervention has caused further resentment amongst the Islamic State’s Sunni members.

The failures and inertia of France’s intelligence community practically fostered the attack, as they failed to initiate basic protocols for properly monitoring risky security assets. The Kouachi brothers had traveled to Yemen to meet CIA asset Anwar al-Awlaki in 2011, three years after Cherif was released from Fleury-Mérogis prison; experts claim that this was what incited their radicalization. A Telegraph article evidences that they had been monitored since spring 2009 and that “French authorities stopped the surveillance in July – just six months before the Paris attacks – because they were deemed to be of low risk”.

Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan opportunistically admonished France for failing to properly monitor the suspects. In a Jan. 17 speech, he harshly condemned the breakdown in intelligence efforts. “These people served 16-17 months in your prisons. Why didn’t you follow these people after they got out of jail? Isn’t your intelligence working? First, these countries should check themselves”, remarked the PM, whom is also guilty of coddling IS insurgents.

France’s tragic deaths were not simply payback for Charlie Hebdo’s satire of the Prophet, but symbolically reflected the anger of victims of France’s imperial ambitions and deteriorating domestic situation. Victims of aggression on both ends will require deep, reflective meditation to mend their troubled passions, and for the French Republic and other European leaders, they must take a step back from their own dark past in order to illuminate the truth.

*Haneul Na’avi is one of the founders, writers, and radio hosts for the blog “The Last Defense”. He has studied his BA and MA in English Literature, and while living in China and South Korea for the last six years, he studied Middle East and African Politics at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, South Korea, and Chinese at Fudan University in Shanghai, China. He contributed this article to PalestineChronicle.com.

The post The Satire And The Faux: Reflections On Charlie Hebdo – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Jayshree Sengupta*

The visit of US President Barack Obama to India for the 66th Republic Day was laden with ‘symbolism’ which can be decoded as ‘US is ready to acknowledge India’s rising economic power’. India is after all the third biggest economy in the world and is poised to grow at 7 to 8 per cent according to International Monetary Fund (IMF).

President Obama’s visit to India has given the American business community a signal that India is going to be important for the US business. Other reasons for Obama’s visit could be that he is keen to tap India’s economic potential specially when China’s growth is slowing down and EU is facing a deflationary spiral that could turn into a full-fledged recession.

India as an important member of the BRICS is also close to both Russia and China, two countries that the western powers are wary of. India with its huge population of 1.2 billion of mostly young people is a future powerhouse of the world, ready to supply labour to countries needing it. It will not only be software engineers who would be going to the West but with ageing Europeans, a lot of care givers from India would be needed in EU’s health sector.

Secondly, though there were many issues to be sorted out during the visit, President Obama went for generalities saying he would like to take India US economic relations to new heights. Trade with US was at $63.7 billion in 2013 though now it is nearly $100 billion. India and the US want to see this bilateral trade rise to $500 billion. India had a trade surplus with US at $20.9 million. India and China trade, on the other hand, has surpassed $500 billion (now at $560 billion). India on the other hand, accounts for only 2 percent of US imports and 1 per cent of its exports.

There was much talk of Foreign Direct Investment and the controversial issues relating to the ‘ease of doing business’ in India. Prime Minister Modi promised he would greatly improve the ‘ease of doing business’, important not just for Americans but for other countries as well. India’s ranking is 142nd in the important World Bank index of ‘ease of doing business’ and India is known to have various impediments to FDI starting from lack of speedy clearances, old labour laws and difficulties in land acquisition.

Land acquisition law has been amended by an Ordinance by the Modi government but this will not be accepted easily. Other thorns in the progress of FDI flow are age old bureaucratic hassles and opening up of retail sector in India.

USA’s FDI to India from April 2000 to September 2014 was $13.16 billion constituting nearly 6 per cent of the total FDI into India, making US the sixth largest source of FDI into India. On the other hand, 65 large Indian companies have been investing in the US. They have invested $17 billion so far.

The Bilateral Investment Treaty was talked about during the visit, but since it requires a lot of technical background work, it was not signed. Infrastructure financing and making of smart cities were also discussed in the CEOs meeting and Obama has promised that US Overseas Private Investment Corporation will lend $1 billion to small and medium enterprises in rural areas in India. On the whole he promised $4 billion in investments and loans.

The problems with India Inc. today, however, are mainly related to domestic policies which are constraining growth and domestic investment, and FDI could help a lot. The impact of slow investment has been that the last quarter (Q3) results of companies show very slow profit growth.

Even IT companies have not shown a rapid profit growth. The IT companies’ combined annual net profit growth stood at 6.3 per cent down from 15.4 per cent in the previous quarter and 32.7 per cent in the corresponding quarter, last year. Analysts attribute this to the continued economic slowdown in Eurozone and Japan even though US has been increasing its demand.

Manufacturing growth in India has picked up from negative growth to 6.3 per cent in April to September 2014. Prime Minister Modi’s pet theme of ‘Make in India’ may materialise with the Nuclear Deal being sealed and American companies coming to India to make nuclear reactors in the future. Making domestic defence equipment has been the aim of the NDA government and it has eased FDI norms considerably in the defence sector.

The main problem, however, could be the quality of labour force. It has, however, to be remembered that India’s labour force ( 90 per cent) is mostly employed in the unorganised sector which is without any kind of safety net or skill training facilities. Unless the labour force is given social protection, guaranteeing families’ health, housing and education, the quality of labour force is not going to come up to world standard. Service sector which contributes 57 per cent of the GDP has fewer people working in it but productivity is high.

Hence all the talk of ‘make in India’ has to be backed by social sector protection for the labour force which will make them secure, their productivity will rise. The reason why China was able to attract FDI after opening up in 1979 was mainly due to its highly disciplined, educated and skilled labour force. More than anything, there has to be skill training centres to enable unorganised sector workers to join the organised sector with better wages and a promise for better life to ‘Make in India’ dream come true.

Meanwhile, the stock market has been on the roll before and after Obama’s visit because of the news that India will surpass China ‘s growth by 2015 and the announcement of quantitative easing by European Central Bank-all of which has led to a huge inflow of FIIs. The inflows have raised India’s reserves to $322 billion recently. The rupee would become stronger which would discourage exports in the future. What India needs badly is FDI with it technology transfer and hopefully that would come after Obama’s India visit.

*The writer is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

The post Obama Visit: The Economic Fallout – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

President Maithripala Sirisena said that the term of office of the President of Sri Lanka will be reduced to five years from the original six.

“I had insisted that the terms of the Presidency be reduced to four years though the Committee of Constitutional Experts and political leaders did not agree with my demand,” the Sri Lanka President said addressing public officials of the Polonnaruwa district at the Thopawewa school grounds on Sunday.

“They said that holding a Presidential Election every four years was not good for the country,” he said.

Sirisena added that they later came to the consensus that the term of the Presidency should be confined to five years due to his strong insistence.

The committee comprising constitutional experts are in the process of discussing on how unlimited powers of the Executive Presidency should be vested in the Legislature.

“Anti apartheid hero and former South African President Nelson Mandela succeeded in bringing many reforms to that country during his four year rule after languishing in jail for over 27 years,” Sirisena noted.

Sirisena said that Sri Lankan leaders can learn many lessons from President Nelson Mandela who introduced many reforms in the economic, political and social fields within his 4 year rule.

“My policy is to consider those who opposed me at the election as friends as Mandela did and get them involved in the process of building the country,” Sirisena said.

Sirisena insisted that he will never offer posts to anyone in consideration of their political affiliations.

“The posts are given to individuals after considering their suitability, efficiency, honesty and qualifications only,” he stressed.

Sirisena said new regulations would be enacted to ensure that no government or a candidate can utilize State power to waste public funds and deploy government servants for his victory in violation of election laws.

Sirisena stressed that the government is dedicated to creating an atmosphere in which the field officials including Samurdhi animators and Grama Niladharis can discharge their duties to the public free from political intimidation.

“Most of the public servants like to perform their duty sans political interference and protect the dignity of their service,’ Sirisena said.

“The fields officers including Samurdhi animators and Grama Niladharies know better than me how the previous regime was involved in the distribution of many items including the sil reddhas among the voters.

“The previous regime violated all basic norms practised during an election. They breached the long held principles of free and fairness of the election at the last presidential poll,” Sirisena said.

“If the political leadership at the top is corrupt the government servants below them also become corrupt. If the politicians are corrupt, the entire public service faces deterioration,” Sirisena said.

The President added that the existing tender system is the most corrupt procedure in the country. He said that the Health Ministry calls for 21,0000 tenders a year.

“I insisted during the previous regime that a new system should be introduced in place of the tender procedure as the tender procedure was corrupt,” Sirisena added.

Sirisena added that he sent Health Ministry officials to study the systems in various countries which had similar a tender system as Sri Lanka to purchase goods, equipment and other items required for government institutions.

“The previous government did not give the green light to implement that system in Sri Lanka,” he said.

President Sirisena also said the public service faced deterioration in an unprecedented manner during the last few years. He said that the country witnessed how a political party utilized government servants for its election campaign to ensure its candidate’s victory at the last presidential election. This is an unprecedented situation. No party in power has used public servants for political work to such an extent.

“The Presidential election which I contested witnessed a record in terms of election law violations. The State media was used to target me. Various campaigns were launched using the State media to insult me,” Sirisena said.

The President added that no party in power has used State resources and power during an election as the previous regime did.

“Temple Trees is a sanctified place in politics but it was used as an office of a political party for the past few years,” Sirisena said.

The President added that the previous regime compelled Ministry Secretaries and other senior government officials to participate in discussions over the State media to ensure the candidate’s victory. “Forged ballot papers were in circulation around the country just three days ahead of the Presidential election aimed at misleading the voters,” the President said.

“Our people were intelligent enough to identify these manoeuvres effectively as almost all people in the country are literate,” Sirisena said.

The post Sri Lanka: Sirisena To Reduce Presidential Term To Five Years appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Iran has called for the expansion of relations between Tehran and Riyadh as Saudi Arabia’s new King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud ascends to the throne.

President Hassan Rouhani expressed hope for the matter in a letter, congratulating King Salman on his succession to throne.

“I hope that in the time lying ahead, with regard to the religious and historical bonds between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the relations between the two countries expand in all areas of mutual interest,” the Iranian president stated in the letter.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Photo by Mazen AlDarrab, Wikipedia Commons.

He further wished King Salman success in his new post, and the Saudi nation and government prosperity.

The Iranian president also said the country is “very close” to clinching a deal with global powers on its nuclear program.

Rouhani said that Iran has been involved in satisfactory negotiations with P5+1.

“For the talks to yield results more quickly, political will is needed in the other side of negotiations with Iran,” Rouhani said.

Rouhani further reiterated that Iran is firmly standing on its nuclear rights while it also wants to ensure the international community about the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities.

The Iranian president said that current disputes between Iran and some western countries could be settled easily through logic and negotiation.

“The atmosphere currently dominating the world is not one of swordplay and the Islamic Republic of Iran wants to interact with others through logic and negotiation,” he said.

The current issue between Iran and P5+1 countries “is neither legal nor technical,” Rouhani said.

President Rouhani said the standoff between the sides negotiating over Iran’s nuclear program is political in nature and requires “the political will and determination of both sides” to be resolved.

Referring to the Islamic Republic’s determination to resolve the dispute quickly, he further said that all of Iran’s nuclear activities have been under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and within the framework of the international regulations.

“Over nearly the past 14 years, the IAEA has made extensive and even surprise inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities,” but has found no evidence of diversion in Tehran’s nuclear program, Rouhani noted.

Since it is obvious that Iran’s nuclear activities are totally peaceful, pressures on the country over the issue is meaningless, said the Iranian president, and called anti-Iran sanctions a “double-edged sword”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also said Iran and Saudi Arabia need to find a joint solution to help tackle problems in the Middle East region.

“We hope that the Saudi government would adopt a good neighborly approach based on the facts on the ground to pave the way for further cooperation in the very sensitive region of the Middle East,” Zarif said.

“There is no obstacle to cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The two countries need to come up with a joint solution to regional problems,” he added.

The Iranian minister added that Tehran and Riyadh have no problem in mutual relations.

Zarif also expressed his country’s preparedness to cooperate with Saudi Arabia to find a joint solution to regional problems.

“We hope that we will be able to establish stability and security in the region by the people in cooperation with neighboring states and without any foreign interference,” he added.

Zarif noted that during his three-hour stay in Riyadh, he had held no political talks with Saudi officials, saying that Tehran has always expressed its readiness for enhanced bilateral dialog.

Iran’s Foreign Minister has also called on the West to study the reasons why a large number of militants in the Middle East region are from western countries.

“The West should review its practices on the issue of handling extremism,” Zarif said, adding “The westerners should ask the question what has been wrong in their practices that a large number … of the extremists in the Middle East come from western societies.”

“Those who have instigated Takfirism in the region are the second and third generation civilians from western societies,” he added.

“They have grown up in the West and unfortunately have come to Iraq and Syria,” Zarif said, adding “why westerners are committing acts of terrorism in the Middle East is a serious question.”

Zarif further described “extremism” as a “serious crisis” in the region which must be tackled.

“Stopping support for the ISIL Takfiri group is the most significant way to stop extremism in the region,” Zarif said, adding that the Takfiri group is supported and is used by certain countries as pawns in the geostrategic games to dominate the region.

The top Iranian diplomat also said that a “mutlifaceted strategy” is required to fight the ISIL terrorist group.

Iran has extended condolences to the Saudi government and nation on the passing of the country’s King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham condoled with Saudis on the monarch’s demise.

The post Iran Calls For Expansion Of Relations With Saudi Arabia appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Against the background of continuing attacks by radical Islamist group Boko Haram, bishops in Nigeria are appealing for military aid from Western governments, as well as solidarity and prayer from around the world.

In the past week, Boko Haram has: captured nearly 80 people in Cameroon, freeing 24 of them; seized control of Monguno, a city of more than 100,000 located 85 miles northeast of Maiduguri; and twice attacked Maiduguri, the capital of Nigeria’s Borno state.

“The West should bring in security – land forces to contain and beat back Boko Haram. A concerted military campaign is needed,” Bishop Oliver Doeme of Maiduguri told the Catholic charity Aid to the Church in Need just a week before the insurgency attacked his city on Jan. 24 and 25.

Much of the territory in the Diocese of Maiduguri is now controlled by Boko Haram. The group has destroyed 50 churches, Bishop Doeme says, and many more churches have been deserted. Of the diocese’s 46 priests, 20 have been displaced, many to the neighboring Yola diocese.

On Jan. 23, Nigeria’s national security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, told the BBC that Nigeria and its neighbors were in “good shape” to fight Boko Haram, and that the assistance of U.N. or African Union troops was unnecessary.

Archbishop Ignatius Kaigama of Jos told Vatican Radio Jan. 23 that he was “quite surprised” at Dasuki’s assertion, “because the people are still dying and being displaced so if the government cannot adequately control the violence, I think there is need for international assistance.”

Bishop Doeme added that the Jan. 7 razing of Baga revealed the Nigerian military’s “ineptitude,”Aid to the Church in Need reported, adding that he called for senior officers who failed to do their job properly to be sacked “as a lesson to the others.”

“Among the soldiers, there were sympathizers with Boko Haram – some of them were even Boko Haram members and many of them just ran away,” Bishop Doeme said.

This weekend’s attacks on Maiduguri were repelled by government soldiers, and a 24-hour curfew has been relaxed. Hospitals are overwhelmed with casualties in the city where thousands of people displaced from elsewhere in Borno have fled for refuge.

Archbishop Kaigama called the situation “very dangerous and very disturbing, because once they capture Maiduguri…then you can be sure that all of the areas around will easily fall to them.”

He said military intervention, not diplomatic, is needed, because “we are dealing with a group that has lost all rationality and kills people at will…whether they are Christians or Muslims, they kill them indiscriminately,” adding that dialogue “cannot happen in such circumstances.”

Elections in Nigeria are scheduled for Feb. 14, though Dasuki has suggested that the vote be delayed. Goodluck Jonathan, who has been president since 2010, is running for re-election against Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress.

In the run-up to the election, Archbishop Kaigama lamented that in Nigeria, “politics is not used for the purpose intended.”

“Most of our politicians don’t see the common good and the interest of Nigerians as number one priority. They see themselves and their positions in power as the primary considerations. We hope that this will change.”

He urged unity among Nigerians, saying that “when we lack political unity, religious unity, ethnic unity then it is easier for Boko Haram to penetrate and achieve the kind of negative results they are achieving,” adding that the solidarity seen in France after the attack on Charlie Hebdo, which killed 17, is what is needed in his own country.

“This is needed in Nigeria. To go beyond politics, beyond our narrow religious confines, beyond our narrow ethnic groups and really uphold the common good and speak out against evil, against terrorism, against inhumanity and be together as one people. This is what we desire now.”

Boko Haram, which means “Western education is sinful,” launched an uprising in 2009 and hopes to impose sharia law on Nigeria. It has targeted security forces, politicians, Christian minorities, and moderate Muslims in Nigeria’s predominantly Muslim north.

A state of emergency was declared in Borno in May 2013, as well as in the neighboring Yobe and Adamawa states. The U.S. recognized Boko Haram as a foreign terrorist organization in November 2013, after a lengthy advocacy effort from human rights and Christian groups.

Boko Haram’s attacks have killed thousands since 2009, including at least 4,000 in 2014, according to Human Rights Watch. More than 1.5 million have been displaced by the group.

“The threat we face presents a very bleak future for the Church,” Bishop Doeme said. “Many of our members are scattered and others have been killed. In some areas there are no Christians any more. But the Church belongs to Christ. The Church will remain strong and many of our people have returned after land has been taken back by the Nigerian soldiers.”

“The most important thing is to pray for our people,” he concluded.

“I know people are praying for us and I am very grateful. I want people to pray the Hail Mary – our mother Mary has been championing our cause. We have a lot of devotion to the Blessed Virgin.”

The post Nigeria: Bishops Appeal For Western Military Aid To Fight Boko Haram appeared first on Eurasia Review.

NASA’s Dawn spacecraft has returned the sharpest images ever seen of the dwarf planet Ceres. The images were taken 147,000 miles (237,000 kilometers) from Ceres on Jan. 25, and represent a new milestone for a spacecraft that soon will become the first human-made probe to visit a dwarf planet.

“We know so little about our vast solar system, but thanks to economical missions like Dawn, those mysteries are being solved,” said Jim Green, Planetary Science Division Director at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

At 43 pixels wide, the new images are more than 30 percent higher in resolution than those taken by NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope in 2003 and 2004 at a distance of over 150 million miles. The resolution is higher because Dawn is traveling through the solar system to Ceres, while Hubble remains fixed in Earth orbit. The new Dawn images come on the heels of initial navigation images taken Jan. 13 that reveal a white spot on the dwarf planet and the suggestion of craters. Hubble images also had glimpsed a white spot on the dwarf planet, but its nature is still unknown.

“Ceres is a ‘planet’ that you’ve probably never heard of,” said Robert Mase, Dawn project manager at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. “We’re excited to learn all about it with Dawn and share our discoveries with the world.”

As the spacecraft gets closer to Ceres, its camera will return even better images. On March 6, Dawn will enter into orbit around Ceres to capture detailed images and measure variations in light reflected from Ceres, which should reveal the planet’s surface composition.

“We are already seeing areas and details on Ceres popping out that had not been seen before. For instance, there are several dark features in the southern hemisphere that might be craters within a region that is darker overall,” said Carol Raymond, deputy principal investigator of the Dawn mission at JPL. “Data from this mission will revolutionize our understanding of this unique body. Ceres is showing us tantalizing features that are whetting our appetite for the detailed exploration to come.”

Ceres, the largest body between Mars and Jupiter in the main asteroid belt, has a diameter of about 590 miles (950 kilometers). Some scientists believe the dwarf planet harbored a subsurface ocean in the past and liquid water may still be lurking under its icy mantle.

Originally described as a planet, Ceres was later categorized as an asteroid, and then reclassified as a dwarf planet in 2006. The mysterious world was discovered in 1801 by astronomer Giuseppe Piazzi, who named the object for the Roman goddess of agriculture, grain crops, fertility and motherly relationships

“You may not realize that the word ‘cereal’ comes from the name Ceres. Perhaps you already connected with the dwarf planet at breakfast today,” said JPL’s Marc Rayman, Mission Director and Chief Engineer of the Dawn mission.

Powered by a uniquely capable ion propulsion system, Dawn also orbited and explored Vesta, the second most massive body in the asteroid belt. From 2011 to 2012, Dawn returned more than 30,000 images, 18 million light measurements and other scientific data about the impressive large asteroid. Vesta has a diameter of about 326 miles (525 kilometers).

“With the help of Dawn and other missions, we are continually adding to our understanding of how the solar system began and how the planets were formed,” said Chris Russell, principal investigator for the Dawn mission, based at the University of California, Los Angeles.

The post Captured Best-Ever View Of Dwarf Planet appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Government of Spain strongly condemned on Tuesday the brutal murder of more than 60 officers from the Philippine National Police Force in the region of Maguinadanao on January 25 during the course of operations against terrorist forces and conveys its sincere condolences to the families, friends and colleagues of the victims and its support for the Philippine authorities, desiring the swift and full recovery to those injured.

The Spanish government said it trusts that the events that unfolded will be quickly clarified together with the consequential assignment of responsibility such that the search for a solid and lasting peace in Mindanao can be achieved as soon as possible with the broadest possible consensus.

The post Spain Condemns Terrorist Violence In Maguinadanao appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Eric Durr

The New York National Guard had 394 soldiers on duty this morning as New York City, Long Island and the lower Hudson Valley entered the second day of a three-day weather event.

New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo called out the National Guard troops as part of a coordinated New York State response. He declared a state of emergency yesterday and banned travel on major roadways last night. New York City and regional transit systems also were shut down.

“With forecasts showing a potentially historic blizzard for Long Island, New York City, and parts of the Hudson Valley, we are preparing for the worst and I urge all New Yorkers to do the same — take this storm seriously and put safety first,” the governor said yesterday.

States of emergency also were declared in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island as of this morning.

This morning, conditions in New York City and the Hudson Valley were better than expected, Cuomo said during a news conference. The travel bans put in place Monday night were lifted in much of the region. However, snow conditions on eastern Long Island were considerably heavier, he added, cautioning state residents to continue avoiding unnecessary travel.

Humvees Positioned at Fire Stations

Fifty National Guard soldiers positioned 25 Humvees at fire stations across New York City’s five boroughs to support emergency medical technicians. The National Guard soldiers are there to drive EMTs to locations on roads that may become otherwise impassable due to high snow accumulations. Six high-axle trucks also were available to the New York City Fire Department to move patients for short distances on snow-clogged side streets if ambulances cannot get down the streets.

On Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, New York National Guard soldiers and airmen were on hand to provide mobility for New York State Police if necessary.

Engineer equipment was moved into the region from 204th Engineer Battalion units in Kingston, Binghamton, Horseheads, and Buffalo. Soldiers from the 152nd Engineer Company in Buffalo, who were the first National Guard responders when Erie County was pounded with seven-foot lake-effect snows in November, were dispatched to the Hudson Valley to assist downstate New Yorkers.

Tractor-trailers on Hand

National Guard tractor-trailers were on hand on Long Island to assist in moving state emergency supplies if requested.

Some 97 pieces of equipment, including 75 high-axle trucks and Humvees, were dedicated to the National Guard response mission. Twelve dump trucks, four front-end loaders and seven small skid-steer loaders also were assigned to provide support if necessary.

At F.S. Gabreski Air National Guard Base in Westhampton, pararescue airmen assigned to the New York Air National Guard’s 106th Rescue Wing prepared snowmobiles for use if they’re needed. Army National Guard UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and Air National Guard HH-60 Pave Hawk rescue helicopters also were ready.

Guard members in other affected states were prepared to assist as needed. Twenty soldiers are available in Connecticut and 150 in Pennsylvania, National Guard Bureau officials said.

The post Guardsmen Remain Ready As New York Dodges Worst Of Storm appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Ambreen Agha*

On January 16, 2015, at least three Shia Muslims were shot dead in Rawalpindi District while they were returning home from a religious gathering. The victims were identified as lawyer Fayyaz Hussain Shah (40), and his two nephews Mir Ghazi Shah (20) and Mir Hamza Shah (22). The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ‘spokesperson’ Muhammad Khorasani claimed responsibility for the attack saying that lawyer Fayyaz Hussain Shah was active in his Shia community and was also a local leader of the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

On January 9, 2015, at least eight people were killed and another 25 were wounded in a bomb blast targeting the Aun Muhammad Rizvi Imambargah (Shia place of commemoration) located at Chittian Hattian in Rawalpindi District. Ehsanullah Ehsan, ‘spokesperson’ for TTP’s Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JuA) faction, claimed responsibility for the attack and vowed “to continue such attacks”.

In the first 26-days of 2015, the Punjab Province has recorded 13 terrorism-related fatalities.

Significantly, reversing the declining trend in such fatalities since 2010, overall fatalities in 2014 increased by a whopping 122.22 per cent, as compared to the preceding year. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (STAP), Punjab recorded a total of 180 fatalities, including 132 civilians, 20 Security Force (SF) personnel and 28 terrorists in 2014, as against 81 such fatalities, including 64 civilians, seven SF personnel and 10 terrorists in 2013.

Other parameters of violence have also registered a staggering increase. As against 20 incidents of killing in 2013, the number of such incidents rose to 43 in 2014, of which eight were major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) resulting in 129 deaths, as compared to seven major incidents (out of 20 incidents of killing) in 2013 which resulted in 40 deaths. In the worst attack of the year, on November 2, 2014, at least 60 people, including children and women, were killed and more than 150 persons were injured, when a suicide bomber detonated his explosives vest in the parking area some 500 meters from the Wagah Border, on the outskirts of provincial capital Lahore, where a daily ceremony is witnessed by large crowds on both the Pakistani and Indian side.

The Province recorded four suicide attacks in 2014, as against a single incident in 2013; the resultant fatalities stood at 83 and five respectively. At least 16 explosions were recorded in 2014, which claimed 111 lives and left more than 352 injured. In 2013, the number of bomb blasts stood at five with 14 fatalities.

An increase in incidents of sectarian violence was also recorded, from 13 in 2013 to 19 in 2014, though resultant fatalities at 23 remained lower in 2014, as against 42 in 2013.

2014, consequently, recorded an overall escalation in violence in the Province which has, for years, served as an ideological sanctuary and a recruitment ground for various terrorist formations in Pakistan. Indeed, on January 1, 2015, Awami National Party (ANP) Central General Secretary Mian Iftikhar Hussain declared Punjab a “training centre for terrorists and their masterminds” and demanded that the Government initiate decisive action against the terrorist leadership and infrastructure in the Punjab. He stressed, further, that “terrorism could not be eliminated from the country until an operation began against terrorist organisations in Punjab”. Pressing for action against terrorists, Hussain remarked that “there should be no distinction between good Taliban and bad Taliban and state institutions should take an across-the-board action against terrorists.”

This dismal situation has been created primarily due to the tacit support provided to these groups by the Federal and Provincial Governments, who have been implicitly supported by the judiciary. As in past, numerous instances of such support came to the fore in 2014. On December 22, 2014, the dreaded terrorist Malik Muhammad Ishaq, the leader of the anti-Shia sectarian outfit Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), was released after three years in jail on grounds of “lack of evidence”. Officials of the Punjab Home Department, however, did not seek extension in his detention. Significantly, the United States (US) on February 6, 2014, had designated Ishaq in its list of the most wanted ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorists’. Indeed, despite an apparent ban on the organisation within Pakistan since August 2001, LeJ continues to operate with a great measure of freedom and exerts significant influence in Punjab.

Similarly, the Islamabad Anti-Terrorism Court Judge Syed Kausar Abbas Zaidi hearing the November 26, 2008, Mumbai (India) terror attacks (also known as 26/11) case, granted bail to top Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) ‘commander’ Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the mastermind of the attacks on December 18, 2014, noting “evidence against Lakhvi was deficient”. After several u-turns, under intense pressure from India and the international community, Lakhvi continues to remain behind bars.

Meanwhile, the Province continued to host LeT ‘founder’ and Jama’at-ud-Dawa (JuD) ‘chief’ Hafiz Muhammad Saeed. Through the course of the year he was allowed to propagate his ideology of hate and violence freely across the country, and including the Islamabad Capital Territory, organising and conducting rallies, in which he spit venom against India and other ‘infidel’ countries. Indeed, on December 4-5, 2014, Saeed organised a two day “National Conference” on the theme, “Pakistan’s liberty lies in the ideology of Pakistan”, at the Minar-e-Pakistan monument in Lahore, calling for the revival of the demand for the complete enforcement of Sharia’h (Islamic Law), protecting and promoting the Islamic ideology of Pakistan, jihad against the ‘enemies of Islam’ to uphold Muslim nationhood across the world, and liberating ‘occupied Muslim territories’. At the Conference, he declared, “…To deal with the Indian atrocities we will have to adopt the course of Ghaznavi and, Ghauri… Narendra Modi should be straightforward and resolve the Kashmir dispute, and if you are not ready to resolve it, then God willing, Kashmir will be the gateway and we will wage jihad against India…” Crucially, the Pakistan Government ran two special trains free of cost to transport people to attend the congregation in Lahore, and to return them to their homes after the conclusion of the congregation.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Government declared, on January 22, 2015, that it has ‘banned’ JuD along with several other terror organistaions, including the Haqqani Network. Earlier in a lamentable act of duplicity, Pakistan’s Minister for Defence Production told Hindustan Times in an exclusive interview on January 16, 2015, “We are looking to ban terror organisations but the JuD is a charitable organisation and the Government of Pakistan has no evidence against Hafiz Saeed or the JuD.” Subsequently, however, the Pakistan’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson stated that there was “no new ban” on JuD, in what Ajai Sahni, Editor, SAIR, described “as the same cycle of plants and denials, the same smoke and mirrors trick, reassuring gullible ‘believers’ without changing realities.” Sahni notes, further,

Interestingly, JuD was consistently included in its list of terrorist organisations by the National Assembly since 2005, and this was used as grounds to ‘take control of’ many of the organisation’s madrassas and institutions, especially by the Punjab Government. The actual staff and management remained very much with the same individuals who controlled these institutions before the purported ‘take over’, but there was now a pretext that permitted the Government to directly and generously fund their activities.

This cover was blown in 2009, when the Lahore High Court quashed proceedings against Hafiz Muhammad Saeed on the grounds that JuD was not a banned organisation, since no notification to this effect had been issued by the Ministry of Interior or by the Punjab Government.

Nevertheless, the National Assembly blithely continued to include JuD in its ‘updated list’ of banned organisation in 2012, even as official funding to its many madrassas and institutions flowed on.

All this is a part of Pakistan’s strategy of deception, its careful calibration of policy as a ‘minimal satisfier’, responding reluctantly to meet the least of requirements where international – particularly US – pressure becomes unbearable, while insistently protecting the infrastructure, integrity and continuity of the many ‘sarkari jehadi’ groups it has long cultivated.

A December 20, 2014, Pakistani report indicated that JuD continued to remain “Enlisted under UNSCR 1267” since December 10, 2008. Despite this long ‘ban’ JuD and its leader Saeed – who has a USD 10 million bounty placed on his head by Washington, find no reason to disguise their activities.

Even if a ban is imposed, JuD is likely to continue to operate under another identity, even as its precursor, LeT did after its apparent ban in January 2002. JuD already has a number of other identities in place, including Tehreek-e-Hurmat-e-Rasool (Movement for defending the honour of Prophet), Tehreek-e-Azadi-e-Kashmir (Movement for the Liberation of Kashmir), Paasbaan-e-Ahl-e-Hadith (Defender of Prophetic Tradition) , Paasban-e-Kashmir (Defender of Kashmir), Al-Mansoorian (The Victorious), Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq (Establishment for the Service of Humanity), Falah-e-Insaniyat Foundation (Foundation for the success of humanity), Tehreek-e-Tahafuz Qibla Awal (Movement for Safeguarding the Holy Ka’ba).

Pakistan has, unfailingly, proved to be a country where hard core sectarian and India-oriented Punjabi jihadists find widespread public and official support. According to the SATP database, there has been a considerable and increasing presence of at least 57 extremist and terrorist groups in Punjab alone. At least 28 of these outfits exist in Lahore. The situation is, in fact, even more alarming and, on January 14, 2015, Federal Minister of Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, during a briefing on the status of the implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) to counter terrorism and extremism, disclosed that the number of proscribed organisations actively engaged in terrorism and extremism in the Province had reached 95.

Islamabad continues with its most dangerous friendships with purveyors of terror, even as it makes desperate efforts to contain some aspects of domestic terrorism. In a 15-minute long video released in December 2014, TTP openly exposed the past misdeeds of the Pakistan Army. A senior leader of the group, Adnan Rashid, a former Pakistan Air Force officer, accused the Pakistan Army of taking a “U-turn” and labeling jihad as terrorism and mujahedeen as terrorists, and warned

You remember when thousands of Pakistani youth fought your proxy war in Afghanistan and in Indian Kashmir…. And then you went into the dollar game and you earned millions from the proxy war in Afghanistan and you deceived the nation in the name of jihad. The Muslims have not forgotten the blood game you played in Indian Kashmir exploiting youth in the name of so called freedom…

The evidence of Pakistan’s long history of malfeasance is now overwhelming, and yet, the flourishing terrorist formations in Punjab and the obvious support they receive from the state establishment, demonstrate that there is obviously insufficient international pressure for change. Indeed, US and international agencies continue to bail Pakistan’s elite out with annual doses of liberal financial aid, even as Washington continues to bolster Islamabad’s arsenal.

*Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The post Pakistan: Punjab Nucleus Of Terror – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Fakir Mohan Pradhan*

Communist Party of India – Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres, along with a large number of armed militia members and sympathisers, attacked and destroyed an Ashram (hermitage) of a local spiritual guru, Jaggamdora Simhachalam aka Satyanarayana, at Gurramveedhi village in the G. Madugula mandal (administrative unit) of Vishakhapatnam District, Andhra Pradesh, in the night of January 17, 2015. Simhachalam was not at his Ashram at the time of the attack. Maoists beat up six persons present in the Ashram and set afire furniture, vehicles and a shed. Claiming responsibility for the incident the Korukonda ‘local area committee’, left pamphlets and hung a banner saying that the Ashram was attacked in retaliation to the killing of Sharath and militia member P. Ganapathi on October 19, 2014, and that Simhachalam would not be spared.

‘Divisional committee member’ Sindri China Ranga Rao aka Sharath and P. Ganapathi were lynched by locals while Maoists were taking Simhachalam to a praja court (‘people’s court’) near Korukonda Shandy, after killing G. Sanjeeva Rao on ‘charges’ of being a Police informer. Another Maoist militia member, Korra Nageswara Rao, was also believed to have been killed in this incident, but, as facts emerged later, he survived after being dumped in a nearby stream, and subsequently escaped. On November 27, he was seen talking to the media during a memorial meeting held by the Maoists in the Vishakhapatnam Agency area.

The Maoists’ revenge attack notwithstanding, the lynching incident in what was long a Maoist stronghold indicates that even the residual strength of the Maoists in Andhra Pradesh is waning. Further, on January 21, 2015, 34 Maoist sympathisers surrendered before the Police at Rajavommangi in East Godavari District. It is significant that, after a protracted political slug fest and acrimonious protests, Andhra Pradesh was officially bifurcated to create the new State of Telangana on June 2, 2014. According to the arrangement, Hyderabad will remain the joint capital for both the States for ten years, after which Andhra Pradesh will have its own capital and Hyderabad will be transferred entirely to Telangana. The residuary Andhra Pradesh has 13 Districts and Telangana has 10. Most of the Maoist affected Districts in the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh have gone to Telangana.

According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in the undivided Andhra Pradesh, by the end of 2013, Maoist activity appeared to have been substantially confined to Visakhapatnam and Khammam Districts, while Karimnagar, Warangal, Srikakulam, Nalgonda, Mahabubnagar, East and West Godavari Districts remained marginally affected. The residual State of Andhra Pradesh, inherited just one District, Visakhapatnam, with moderate Maoist activity and three Districts – East Godavari, West Godavari and Srikakulam – with marginal Maoist activity. However, seven mandals of the erstwhile Khammam District, which had a considerable Maoist presence, have been added to East and West Godavari District.

According to SATP data, the present (residual) Andhra Pradesh has recorded 10 fatalities, including five civilians and five Maoists, in LWE related incidents of violence in 2014, as compared to eight fatalities including six civilians and two Maoists in 2013 in the same areas. This suggests that Andhra Pradesh has sustained the advantage it had secured against the Maoists before the division of the State. While civilian fatalities remain comparable, Maoist fatalities have gone up from two to five. There were no SF fatalities in either year.

In terms of spatial distribution, fatalities in 2014 were reported from three Districts – Vishakhapatnam (three civilians and two Maoists), Prakasam (three Maoists) and East Godavari (two civilians). In 2013, fatalities were reported from three Districts of the comparable area of erstwhile Andhra Pradesh – Vishakhapatnam (four civilians and one Maoist), East Godavari (two civilians) and Nellore (one Maoist).

Two major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) were recorded in 2014 – one in Prakasam (three Maoists killed in an encounter with SFs on June 19 and another in Vishakhapatnam (one civilian and two Maoists, on October 19). The Maoists had engineered just one major incident in 2013, killing three tribals in the Lakkavaram forest area in G.K. Veedhi mandal of Visakhapatnam District on February 19. No major incidents were reported in 2012 and 2011 in the residual Andhra Pradesh areas.

Maoists engineered one swarming attack (involving 50 or more cadres/militia members) each in 2014 and 2013. On January 27, 2014, 20 CPI-Maoist cadres accompanied by an estimated 50 militia members triggered blasts at two coffee pulping units and a godown of the Andhra Pradesh Forest Development Corporation’s coffee pulping yard at Chapagedda in GK Veedhi mandal in Visakhapatnam District. Earlier on July 6, 2013, some 20 CPI-Maoist cadres along with about 70 militia members raided the house of a former chairman of the Agriculture Marketing Committee of Chintapalli mandal, Vantala Subba Rao in his native Bayalu Kinchangi village under Choudapalli Panchayat of Visakhapatnam District.

The Maoists were involved in at least two exchanges of fire, two explosions, four incidents of arson and gave calls for bandhs (general shutdown strikes) on two occasions in 2014; in 2013 they were involved in at least three exchanges of fire, one explosion, one incident of arson, four cases of assault and gave calls for bandhs on three occasions.

The Maoists held a meeting on November 27, 2014, in memory of the cadres lynched in the October 19 incident. The meeting was organised somewhere near the location of the incident, and people from 33 villages under the Balapam Gram Panchayat were asked to attend. The meeting was reportedly addressed by the party’s ‘east division secretary’ Kailasam, and many top leaders at the State level were also present. Reports suggest that more than a hundred party functionaries attended. Kailasam announced that coffee plantations at Siribala, RV Nagar and Chapagedda would be distributed to the Girijans (tribals) soon, since the party believed that the forest wealth belonged to the Girijans. Six coffee plantations had been ‘allocated’ by the Maoists to the Girijans in the past.

Overall, Maoist activities appear to have been substantially confined to Visakhapatnam District, while East and West Godavari and Srikakulam Districts remain marginally affected. However, with the transfer of seven mandals from the Khammam District of the Telangana region, close to the troubled Chhattisgarh border, to the residual Andhra Pradesh State, the East and West Godavari Districts may see an increase in Maoist activities in the foreseeable future.

On December 29, 2014, Andhra Pradesh Director General of Police (DGP) J.V. Ramudu disclosed that Police had arrested 75 Naxalites (left wing extremists), while another 93 surrendered through 2014. Maoists were involved in over a dozen reported crimes during the year, including the killing of four civilians. Five Maoists were shot dead in exchange of fire in different places and the Police seized 17 weapons from their possession. However, giving an assessment of Maoist activities in Visakhapatnam District, particularly in the Agency area, Superintendent of Police (SP) Koya Praveen stated, on December 29, 2014, that a total of 83 persons had been arrested during the year, including nine extremists, 28 militia members and 46 sympathisers, as against 66 persons, including three extremists, 32 militia members and 31 sympathisers in 2013. The arrests included an active member of the CPI-Maoist Galikonda ‘area committee’, identified as Pangi Bhaskara Rao, and of the Kalimela ‘area committee’, Korra Santhi.

On August 22, 2014, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, N. Chandrababu Naidu, during a discussion in the State Assembly, disclosed that 83 underground Maoist cadres from Andhra Pradesh had been identified as active, of whom 61 were known to be operating in the State, while the remaining were operating from Chhattisgarh and other States. Interestingly, while giving an assessment of Maoist numbers, Visakhapatnam Superintendent of Police Koya Praveen noted that, while it was not possible to give the exact number, it was estimated that the East Visakha Joint Division chief Chalapathi and his deputy Bakuri Venkata Ramana alias Ganesh were moving around with about 40 to 50 hardcore cadres, each. Similarly, Galikonda area committee heads Ravi and Sharat and Korukonda area committee leaders Naveen and Kiran led groups of at least 30 Maoist cadres each. Praveen added, “The figures are excluding the local militia members and sympathisers.” Further, “The weaponry depends on the rank. It is reported that leaders such as Ravi and Naveen, have at least five to six AK 47 assault rifles in their group and supported by a good number of .303 Lee Enfield rifles. They also carry landmines and claymore mines.”

Since concerns persist, Andhra Pradesh is gearing up to tackle the residual Maoist presence. A special company of armed Police is to be set up for the seven mandals of Khammam which were merged into Andhra Pradesh, and the Centre has cleared this proposal. The Government is also considering the setting up of a special Police Sub-division for these seven mandals. According to Andhra Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister and Home Minister China Rajappa, of the 13 Districts in the State, only eight Districts have armed battalions. West Godavari, Prakasam, Chittoor, Krishna and Srikakulam Districts do not have any armed battalions and proposals have been sent to the Centre seeking approval for five such battalions. The Centre has sanctioned two battalions with one of these to be set up at Vijayawada and another in one of the Rayalaseema Districts. Reports indicate that the State was awaiting sanction of another two battalions.

Vishakhapatnam District Police is upgrading its existing Police Stations to make them attack-proof. Superintendent of Police Praveen observed, in this connection, “At Chintapalli and GK Veedhi, about 80 per cent of the work is over. At Hukumpeta, we are midway through. They should be ready in a couple of months.” Another six Police Stations have been identified for similar upgradation, and work is to commence shortly.

According to the latest available data, the Andhra Pradesh Police as on December 31, 2013, before bifurcation of the State, had a Police-population ratio of 123 per 100,000 (actual strength, National Crime Records Bureau data]. This reflected a deficit of 22,950 personnel against sanctioned strength, with 11 vacancies in the ranks of DG/ Addl.DG / IG / DIG, 142 vacancies in SSP/SP/Addl.SP/ ASP/ Dy.SP ranks (though there was a surplus of 13 in the Armed Police in these ranks), 3,172 vacancies in the Inspector, Sub Inspector and Assistant Sub Inspector (ASI) ranks, and 19,625 vacancies in personnel below ASI rank.

However, DGP Ramudu, on December 22, 2014, asserted that existing numbers in the residual Andhra Pradesh State were sufficient in the officer cadres. In fact, the Department was forcing Police Stations to accommodate a higher number of Inspector rank officers than required. But the Police was facing a shortage of constables and sub-inspectors, and a proposal to recruit 8,000 constables was pending approval.

Further, the [State] Cabinet Sub-committee on the Naxalite problem, headed by Finance Minister Yanamala Ramakrishnudu, has recommended the raising of a tribal battalion, recruited from the Girijan youth of East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam, exclusively to counter the Maoist insurgency along the Andhra-Odisha-Chhattisgarh border. The recommendation is aimed at discouraging discontented tribal youth from joining the Maoists. Significant tribal dislocation is expected as a result of the Polavaram project. The Indira Sagar Project is a multipurpose major terminal reservoir project located on river Godavari near the Ramayyapet village of Polavaram Mandal in West Godavari District. An estimated 44,574 residential households, involving a total population of 177,275 persons, of which around 50 per cent are tribals, are likely to be displaced by the project. According to Union Environment Minister of State (Independent Charge) Prakash Javadekar, an area of 3427.52 hectares of forest land in Andhra Pradesh alone is projected to be inundated, and 276 villages in Andhra Pradesh, four villages in Chhattisgarh and eight villages in Odisha are likely to be submerged. The Odisha State has opposed the project as it maintains that the project is likely to submerge tribal villages in Malkangiri District.

Seven months have passed since the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, with no obvious increase in Maoist activities. While this is too short a period to assess the impact of the division on the Maoist movement in the State, there is no reason to believe that there would be any radical discontinuity with the recent past. Nevertheless, concerns persist, especially in view of the administrative uncertainty regarding the location of the State’s capital, which is causing some heartburn among sections of the population in the Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions. The sooner administrative issues are settled down, the better it will be for the State, and the closer the focus on the Maoist problem.

*Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The post India: Maoists’ Waning Support In Andhra Pradesh – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Perceptions of a decline in multiculturalism as a means of integrating ethnic minorities are unfounded, according to new research.

The study, led at the University of Strathclyde, compared citizenship programs in four European nations – the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark – and concluded that, while the term ‘multiculturalism’ was being less frequently used with a positive meaning, the actual public policies designed to help ethnic minorities to integrate and remake citizenship remained in place and were, in fact, being expanded.

According to Dr. Nasar Meer, “As European societies have become more diverse, the task of developing an inclusive citizenship has become increasingly important. In recent years, however, there has been a backlash against multiculturalism as path to achieving this.”

Meer said that, “The reasons for this include the way that, in some countries, multiculturalism is seen to have facilitated social fragmentation and entrenched social divisions, while for others, it has distracted attention away from socio-economic disparities or encouraged a moral hesitancy amongst ‘native’ populations. Some have even blamed it for incidents of international terrorism.”

Meer, a Reader in Comparative Social Policy and Citizenship at Strathclyde, led the research.

The research found that, even in countries such as Denmark and Germany where multiculturalism was never formally adopted, some public policies were being developed to recognize minority communities and facilitate their participation in the labor market, educational systems and other key social sectors at local and national levels.

Dr Daniel Faas, of Trinity College Dublin’s Department of Sociology, a co-author of the research, said, “Legislations have become more inclusive of diversity, and the large anti-far right demonstrations highlight the solidarity with migrants, but also show that multiculturalism is a fragile concept there.”

In countries where some multiculturalism has historically been adopted, such as the UK and the Netherlands, the picture was more mixed but showed that newer approaches, such as civic integration – including citizenship education, naturalization ceremonies and language classes – also built on and developed multiculturalism rather than erasing it. How national identities have been remade to be inclusive is a further example of this.

Dr Meer added, “Our study clearly shows that, where there have been advances in policies of multiculturalism, these have not been repealed uniformly, or on occasion not at all, but may equally have been supplemented by being ‘balanced out’ in, or thickened by, civic integrationist approaches.”

The research also involved Aarhus University in Denmark and Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona.

The post Retreat Of Multiculturalism ‘Is A Myth’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Obese people considering weight-reducing bariatric surgery are only topped by pregnant women when it comes to how often they turn to the Internet for health advice. While most use it to read up on relevant procedures and experiences, one in every four patients actually chooses a surgeon based solely on what he or she has gleaned from, in particular, websites hosted by public hospitals and former patients. This is according to a study in Springer’s journal Obesity Surgery, led by Luca Paolino of the Joseph Ducuing Hospital in Toulouse, France.

In a questionnaire completed by 212 candidates for bariatric surgery, Paolino and his colleagues assessed if the participants had access to the Internet and what role the e-health information they read ultimately played in their decision whether or not to undergo surgery. The researchers also assessed how useful and trustworthy the participants found the Internet information, and how they verified the facts they read.

It was found that the vast majority (77.8 percent) of participants used the Internet, in particular, to seek information about different surgical procedures and to learn from the experiences of patients with similar conditions. According to Paolino, only one previous study on pregnant women noted a higher rate (95 percent) of Internet e-health use among a specific group of patients.

Just over half of the patients found relevant e-information on the topics quite easily. Participants generally preferred the advice provided by public hospitals or patients’ associations to that of popular media websites or the pharmaceutical industry. However, the majority of patients (92.6 percent) still verified the e-information they read with other sources such as their general medical practitioners, family and friends. Only a minority of patients (16.2 percent) did not trust what they read about the topic on the web as a whole.

A little more than three-quarters of the bariatric surgery patients also largely take their lead from their general practitioners about which hospital or surgeon to choose. However, Paolino and his colleagues found that one in every four patients relies only on Internet information to choose their surgeon – indicative of the popularity of using the web to read up on the matter.

“The Internet has already become an important source of knowledge in patients’ decision-making processes. Therefore it is important to create or promote independent high-quality healthcare websites and to integrate them into discussions with patients,” is Paolino’s advice to health professionals.

The post Obese People Claim No. 2 Spot Among E-Health Information Seekers appeared first on Eurasia Review.