By Mawassi Lahcen

A Moroccan expert is warning against the growing threat of the Islamic State (ISIS) using women in terrorist operations.

In the last weeks of 2014, the Moroccan and Spanish security authorities dismantled a cell specialized in recruiting women and sending them to ISIS. The cell was based in Barcelona and had extensions in Ceuta, Melilla and Fnideq.

The cell, comprising four women residing in Barcelona, targeted young girls in Morocco and sent them to Fnideq where they were ideologically indoctrinated before being sent to Syria to engage in “jihad annikah”.

Several reports around the world have sounded the alarm about the rising numbers of women who join ISIS to engage in jihad annikah. The phenomenon, which started as women joined their husbands who were fighting in Syria, has evolved and now includes more and more unmarried girls.

Recent field research conducted by the Moroccan-based Northern Observatory for Human Rights (ONERDH) confirmed the worrying trend. ONERDH Director Mohamed Benaissa told Magharebia that northern Morocco has had at least ten cases.

“As to the new generation of women who are joining ISIS, most of them are young girls who were recruited via social networking websites,” he explained.

Benaissa noted that sheikhs of jihadi salafism have made the matter easy for those girls by issuing fatwas permitting marriage via Skype, and other fatwas allowing them to travel to Syria without a male companion.

The phenomenon of women travelling to Syria and Iraq has taken an alarming dimension in recent months, as their number is estimated between 300 and 500.

Mohamed Benhammou, president of the Moroccan Centre for Strategic Studies (CMES), said that the size of this phenomenon was much bigger.

“There is another dimension related to the travel of women to Syria and Iraq, and this is related to global prostitution networks that started to pay attention to the region after the war broke out in Syria,” he said.

“In a report on transnational crime issued by CMES three years ago, we observed intensive activities by global prostitution networks towards Turkey and Jordan,” he added.

Benhammou unveiled that prostitution networks exploited the desire of North African girls to immigrate to Europe and lured them to Turkey where many deceived young girls found themselves hostages to prostitution networks that sell their bodies to fighters in Syria.

ISIS has exploited this situation to penetrate prostitution networks and recruit women into the group as part of the jihad annikah, Benhammou said.

“ISIS has given prostitutes a package of financial and moral incentives, like a monthly salary, a chance to repent and get out of the circle of prohibition and erase their past by giving themselves over to jihad, and a possibility to continue with their profession under the pretext of marriage with the group fighters,” he explained.

“This is how jihad annikah was born, i.e., through an alliance between ISIS and global prostitution networks,” Benhammou noted. “ISIS is looking for providing emotional stability and calm to its fighters, while the prostitution networks and human traffickers are looking for money.”

In view of ISIS’ growing interest in women and its incessant search for brides to satisfy its fighters, the organisation has formed media groups specialised in recruiting women via social networks to encourage them to travel to Syria to marry them off to mujahideen.

The most prominent of these groups are al-Khansaa media platoon and al-Zawraa group. These groups have hundreds of accounts on Twitter, publish many statements and messages that explain and justify the trends of the terrorist organisation and its mediaeval practices.

They try to focus in their propaganda on family matters that many women are interested in, such as cooking, raising children and cosmetics tips, and at the same time they make propaganda for ISIS fighters by depicting them as courageous heroes. They also provide opportunities for distance dating, exchange of photos and information between interested girls and fighters.

Given the growing numbers of women joining ISIS and their diversity, including widows of fighters, new brides, prostitutes and captured women from minority groups turned into sex slaves, the group has formed a women brigade known as al-Khansaa. This brigade, an armed group tasked with policing activities among women, is different from al-Khansaa media group, which is tasked with propaganda and recruitment via the internet.

Elmortada Iamracha, a preacher and imam in Morocco’s Al Hoceima, explained that the tough social condition facing young people, whether women or men, was the factor that explains the terrorist group’s success in recruiting them.

“The rate of unemployment in Morocco, especially in the north, is going up,” Iamracha said.

He added that the economic crisis in Europe impacted the level and size of aid received by people in the north of Morocco from their migrant children.

Young people are forced to take risks in their search for a way out of their crisis, Iamracha said.

“Yesterday, it was the illegal immigration to Europe on board of death boats, which are also a type of suicide operations,” he concluded. “As to today, now that the prospects of immigrations have been dashed, young people escape from their reality to ISIS, which promises them monthly salaries, weapons and marriage in the framework of jihad annikah.”

The post Morocco: Islamic State Using Prostitution Networks appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Southeast Asian states interested in acquiring nuclear energy may take lessons from the cumulative experience of 31 nuclear-powered states gained over the past 60 years. They need to study evolving international frameworks on safety regulation, human resources development and waste management.

By Julius Cesar I. Trajano*

Nuclear power is now enjoying a period of popularity worldwide, particularly in Asia. While the Fukushima accident in 2011 tempered what could have been an unprecedented nuclear energy growth in the region, the global nuclear industry is now pinning its hopes on Asian economies, as highlighted in the recently concluded Nuclear Power Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur.

There are now 439 nuclear reactors operated by 31 countries; two-thirds of the 69 nuclear reactors under construction are in Asia, led by China, India and South Korea. A growing number of countries in Southeast Asia are considering building nuclear power plants to meet increasing energy needs of their growing economies while decreasing their greenhouse gas emissions.

Nuclear newcomers and regulatory independence

Taking pride in its nuclear energy preparatory plan, Vietnam is determined to commission its first NPP after 2020, while Malaysia has started conducting a feasibility study on exploiting nuclear energy including public acceptance. Nuclear planning agencies in Indonesia and Thailand have come up with their respective nuclear energy proposals. As part of the process of evaluating the use of nuclear energy, Indonesia is planning to build a small experimental power reactor.

Given the dramatic improvements that have been made to nuclear safety all over the world since the Fukushima accident, there are valuable lessons that nuclear ‘newcomers’ in Southeast Asia can derive from nuclear-powered states in ensuring safe commissioning of NPPs.

IAEA’s chief, Mr Yukiya Amano, himself has repeatedly emphasised that regulatory independence leads to greater transparency and improves public acceptance. The Fukushima accident accentuated the importance of an independent nuclear safety regulatory body. The Japanese parliament’s investigation on the accident concluded that collusive relationships between Fukushima plant operators, ministries promoting nuclear energy, and government regulators compromised safety.

Hence, a new regulatory framework was approved by the parliament, establishing an independent Nuclear Regulation Authority whose enhanced mandate now includes upholding transparency in conducting NPP safety inspections and decision-making independent from the interference of nuclear industry and ministries. Meanwhile, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has studied the lessons of Fukushima accident and has since enhanced its regulatory function with the utilisation and implementation of new technology, safety protocols and emergency procedures.

In Southeast Asia, Vietnam which has the most advanced NPP plan in the region, has yet to legislate a framework on regulatory independence. Vietnam’s regulatory body is just ‘partly independent’ as it remains under the Ministry of Science and Technology, the chief promoter of nuclear energy, while it does not have control over NPP construction and operation licenses. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia still need to legislate domestic laws for them to effectively implement and comply with IAEA’s conventions on nuclear safety and emergency preparedness for nuclear accidents.

Human resources development

Another issue that arises early in the planning is the need for an experienced nuclear workforce, which probably does not exist when the decision is taken to introduce nuclear power. Several nuclear-powered states such as France and the United States have developed robust education and training programmes to maintain a local pool of nuclear engineers and technicians and ensure knowledge transfer from an aging nuclear workforce to the next generation of workers.

France created the International Institute of Nuclear Energy which brings together academic institutions, research organisations and nuclear companies in order to come up with the best solutions in education and training for the development of human resources in nuclear energy. The US Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy University Programmes engages US colleges and universities to support student education thereby helping to sustain a world-class nuclear energy workforce.

Both the US and French governments have established programmes that facilitate collaboration between the nuclear industry, academe and research institutions. By doing so, the needed skills and technology in the nuclear industry are addressed by educational and research institutions while funding and future employment of nuclear engineering students are provided by the nuclear industry.

From a long-term perspective, ASEAN states may emulate the French and US capacity-building programmes in sustaining a local pool of highly qualified nuclear engineers and technicians. Unlike three decades ago, specialised knowledge is now accessible via international and bilateral cooperation to help new-comers establish human infrastructure. Nuclear technology exporters like France and the US offer short and long-term education and training programmes to foreign countries. Evidently, this has been a selling strategy of nuclear exporting states but ASEAN states may consider participating in these capacity-building programmes. For instance, Russia and Japan, which both have nuclear commercial deals with Vietnam, have been training Vietnamese students.

Nuclear waste management

The failure of advanced NPP states to address the disposal of high-level nuclear waste (i.e., spent/used reactor fuel) from the day they started exploring nuclear energy should serve as crucial take-away for newcomers in Southeast Asia. Presently, there is still no final repository site for high-level waste accumulated globally over six decades. Nevertheless significant progress has been made in France and Finland in developing deep geological disposal sites.

But the IAEA has strongly advised newcomers in Asia to first address the waste issue by developing national policy and infrastructure for radioactive waste management, even before commissioning NPPs. Vietnam, in fact, has yet to come up with a permanent disposal strategy. As part of its nuclear deal with Moscow, its future spent fuel will be reprocessed in Russia but the treated wastes will still be returned to Vietnam which will still require a disposal facility.

Indeed, a nuclear energy programme is a long-term commitment that may take decades from planning, through construction, to operation, waste management and capacity building. It is a sophisticated technology that requires rigorous planning, yet new-comers now can stand on the cumulative experience of 30 nuclear-powered states acquired in the past six decades.

In upholding the culture of nuclear safety in Southeast Asia, one important key is for the ASEAN countries to examine the milestones that have been achieved by the pioneers of civilian nuclear energy and their expensive mistakes that should now be avoided.

*Julius Cesar I. Trajano is Senior Analyst with the Centre for Non Traditional Security (NTS) Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

The post Nuclear Safety In Southeast Asia: Lessons From The Nuclear Pioneers – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Giriraj Bhattacharjee*

Tripura, the location of one of India’s most virulent insurgencies, has now evolved into one of the most peaceful states in India’s troubled Northeastern region. The state registered no terrorism-related fatalities through 2013, but the record was tarnished by four such fatalities in 2014, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). In the process, the trend of continuous decline in such fatalities recorded since 2004 (with the exception of 2012) was reversed. In 2012, Tripura had recorded two fatalities (both militants) as against one (civilian) in 2011.

Significantly, at its peak in 2004, militancy in Tripura had claimed as many as 514 lives, including 453 civilians, 45 militants and 16 Security Force (SF) personnel.

According to SATP data, the four fatalities in 2014, in three incidents of killing, included two civilians and two SF personnel. A civilian driver, Himari Rangtor, and a Border Security Force (BSF) trooper, Adil Abbas, were killed when suspected cadres of the Biswamohan faction of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT-BM) ambushed a BSF vehicle at Pusparam Para in North Tripura District on November 17, 2014. Suspected NLFT–BM militants also killed a BSF trooper, Biswas Kumar, in an ambush at Malda Para in Dhalai District on October 23, 2014. Earlier, on June 12, 2014, the body of a surrendered NLFT militant, identified as Samindra Debbarma, was recovered from Vidyabill area in Khowai District. Prior to these two killings, the last civilian fatality had taken place on January 31, 2011, when NLFT militants killed the in-charge of Shewapara border fencing site of National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC), identified as C.N. Muni, and injured his driver, at a remote tribal hamlet in North Tripura District near the Indo-Bangladesh border.

Though no militant was killed through 2014, the State witnessed the killing of SF personnel after a long hiatus. The last SF fatality before the two 2014 killings was recorded on August 6, 2010, when two BSF troopers were killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast carried out by NLFT-BM militants in Ratia under the Chawmanu Police Station of Dhalai District. Meanwhile, the Inspector General of Border Security Force (BSF, Tripura Frontier), B.N. Sharma, stated on November 28, 2014, “After two ambushes on BSF troops, the operational strategy has been changed. We have decided to send jawans in strong numbers to foil their attempt.”

NLFT-BM was responsible for three killings in 2014, while the killing of the surrendered NLFT militant remained unattributed. No confirmed activity by the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) was reported in the State through 2014.

In a worrying development, however, the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), on September 12, 2014, announced that its party members would go to New Delhi to meet Union Home Minister (UHM) Rajnath Singh and Union Tribal Affairs Minister Jual Oram, to press for its demand for a separate State to be carved out of Tripura. Though no further information about this announcement is available, Chief Minister (CM) Manik Sarkar on December 29, 2014, stated, “Nothing will be allowed to revive this dead phenomenon. Tripura simply does not need a separate State, as the TTAADC [Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council], based on the Sixth Schedule and spread over 68.10 per cent of the State’s territory, is a vibrant institution taking good care of the socio-economic and political interests of the indigenous communities.” The tribal areas of the State are presently governed by TTAADC under Schedule VI of the Constitution. The formation of a separate Telangana State, which was carved out of Andhra Pradesh in South India on June 2, 2014, has revived a slew of similar demands across the Northeast.

Further, as Chief Minister Sarkar observed, on January 3, 2015, “The insurgency has not been uprooted yet, despite all out efforts. Militants are still on the operational mode in some interior places of the State. Police has to be more proactive along with the Central Paramilitary Force BSF, which is deployed in the border, has to be more alert and active. If Tripura Police, TSR [Tripura State Rifles] and BSF jointly with the public support, go for counter insurgency … then militancy can be totally wiped out.”

The State Government, on November 29, 2014, decided to extend the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) – 1958 for another six months. AFSPA was first enforced in Tripura in 1997, when terrorism was at its peak. In view of the improvement in the situation and the lessening of terrorist activities, the Tripura Government had, in June 2013, reviewed its application and reduced the operational areas of the Act to 30 Police Station areas, from the earlier 40.

However, Director General of Police (DGP) K. Nagaraj, on January 4, 2015, asserted that insurgency had been largely contained in the State, and that only eight militant-related incidents had been registered during 2014, as compared to nine such incidents in 2013. The number of abduction cases registered had reduced to eight in 2014, against ten in 2013, and only one abducted person was still in militant captivity. According to the SATP data, however, 10 persons were abducted in six such incidents in 2014, as against three such incidents in which seven persons were abducted in the preceding year. In addition, SFs in the State arrested four militants [all NLFT-BM cadres] in three incidents in 2014, adding to thirteen such arrests in 2013. In one such incident on December 4, 2014, BSF troopers, arrested NLFT-BM ‘commander’ Amarjeet Debbarma (35), from the Raisyabari market in the Gandacherra Sub-division in Dhalai District.

31 militants [18 of NLFT-BM, 10 of the Bru National Army (BNA), and three of the Bru Democratic Front of Mizoram (BDFM)] surrendered during 2014, as against 14 surrenders in 2013. In one major incident of surrender, 10 BNA militants surrendered to Assam Rifles (AR) personnel at Kanchanpur Sub-division in the North Tripura District, on May 7, 2014. The surrendered militants included the ‘second in command’ of BNA, Singhrak aka Simanjoy, and ‘third in command’ Chunsa Rai. Meanwhile, on September 4, 2014, the Tripura Government decided to withdraw court cases against surrendered militants, except those of crimes committed against women. An unnamed official of the Tripura Home Department disclosed, “Chief Minister Manik Sarkar said the State Government has decided to withdraw court cases against the former militants to lure underground terrorists to lay down arms and join mainstream of life.”

Meanwhile, neighboring Bangladesh continued its support to India’s fight against terror groups operating in Tripura in particular and the Northeast region in general. Significantly, on November 29, 2014, SFs in Bangladesh killed eight NLFT-BM militants in the Naraicherra area near Segun Bangan of Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). The operation had been launched following intelligence inputs provided by Indian agencies. Similarly, Bangladesh SFs launched an operation between November 24 and 28, 2014, destroying several NLFT-BM hideouts in the Khagrachhari District of Bangladesh, forcing 36 NLFT-BM cadres to flee to the nearby Bandarban District (Bangladesh). This operation also led to the arrest of NLFT-BM ‘commander’ Kwaplai Debbarma alias Karna (33) from the house of a former ATTF ‘commander’ Jewel Debbarma, in the Char Mile area of Khagrachhari District in Bangladesh. Earlier, a March 16, 2014, report had indicated that NLFT-BM was facing its worst-ever crisis, with lower cadres strongly advocating a truce with the Indian Government. Reports also suggest that NLFT-BM militants staying in the Bangladeshi camps were highly dissatisfied with misappropriation of funds by senior ‘commanders’, a growing resource crunch, food crises and the wide gap between the lifestyles of the leadership and the cadres.

Significantly, two of the major outfits – NLFT-BM and ATTF – still operating in Tripura are reported to have at least 32 camps in Bangladesh. BSF Inspector General (Tripura Frontier) B. N. Sharma, on November 28, 2014, disclosed that, of these hideouts, NLFT-BM accounted for 21 camps.

NLFT-BM suffered a split in early December 2014, with ‘commander’ Prabhat Jamatya (39) leaving the group’s camp in CHT with more than 25 followers and a large cache of arms and ammunition. The NLFT-Prabhat faction (NLFT-P) is reportedly headquartered in the sprawling house of a retired Bangladeshi Policeman in Rajghat under the Chunarughat Sub-district of Habiganj District in Bangladesh. These militants have also started sending “tax notices” to Tripura residents from across the border.

Police led operations in the State have forced both the principal militant formations, NLFT-BM and ATTF, to restrict their operations, working from CHT in Bangladesh. Though the Bangladesh Government is providing enormous support, the unfenced areas along the Indo-Bangladesh border continue to facilitate the easy movement of militants into the State. Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju on August 13, 2014, told the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) that, out of the 848-kilometers of the Tripura-Bangladesh Border, 782.46-kms have been fenced while 65.54-kms of border remain to be fenced. Moreover, as Tripura Governor Padmanava Balkrishna Acharya, expressing dissatisfaction with the fencing work along Indo-Bangladesh border on October 14, 2014, observed, “The fence can be easily cut and breached any time. The quality of work does not justify the huge spending incurred in erecting it.”

Tripura has secured extraordinary success through its model of a Police-led counter-insurgency campaign against what was once a raging militancy. This success was secured by establishing a remarkable police presence, with 636 Policemen per 100,000 population and 225.2 Policemen per 100 square kilometers, and by dramatic improvements in training, equipment and leadership. The residual problems that persist demand an acute operational focus in the border areas. Effective border fencing, the operationalization all 64 Border out Posts, greater area domination, and joint patrolling with Bangladeshi Forces can help mop up the straggling remnants of the insurgency.

*Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The post India: Fight To The Finish In Tripura – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

“Removing a first-term incumbent leader should have been taboo after the turmoil that followed Labor’s decision to make such a move against Kevin Rudd.” — Peter van Onselen, The Australian

It should give much pause for lamentation. Journalists, pundits, and the public sitting on the sidelines awaiting the vote of party members in a room may result in: a ritually symbolic decapitation of an Australian Prime Minister, or an unstable, and uncertain dispensation offered by the good grace of a positive ballot. This is what prompted the Coalition party room this morning in Canberra, in what is termed in the local lingo a “leadership spill”. The incumbent leader, Prime Minister Tony Abbott, won it 61-39.

Australia has been a country caught by a condition that can only be termed a permanent, or at the very least a long term, form of leadership dysfunctionalism. It started at the State level. Incumbent premiers lost their head before heading to the next election, ambushed by their party colleagues. It used to be said to be a typically Labor party phenomenon, till the Liberals did it to such figures as the Victorian Premier Ted Ballieu.

The disease has well and truly headed up the tree trunk of Australian politics. For six years, the electorate bore witness to what seemed to be caretaker prime ministers awaiting party room assassination. The Australian Labor Party’s Kevin Rudd, who came to power in an exuberant manner in 2007, was dumped in an engineered knifing by followers of Julia Gillard, who had been his deputy. The favour was returned, with blows, and threats, exchanged through the course of each of their prime ministerships. The polls, not the policies, were dictating each treacherous slice, thrust and slaying, with the party machine orchestrating the summary executions. Instead of resembling a nominal democracy, Australia began to, perhaps more honestly, resemble a ramshackle plutocracy run by fickle agendas.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott, the conservative successor to the ALP self-harming generation, was always an aberration of sorts, an unpopular leader who won because his opponents opposite him were generally suicidal in terms of their political careers, the short changers of their own destiny. He campaigned well, not so much in poesy as gritty, gloomy reminders, made bearable by the spectre of the Rudd-Gillard seppuku run.

This enabled him to take the spoils, charging in with the standard, anachronistic myths of the sacred country besieged by crisis. Muscular and macho, his jarring sound bites proved effective, a sort of ghastly program on a loop: an economic “emergency” was afflicting Australia; the “turning back of the boats” to save Australia from asylum seekers was needed; stable government needed to return.

That there was no such economic crisis; that asylum seekers were entitled to seek asylum, by boat, even in Australia, was irrelevant. The ALP spinners were out of thread, largely because they found their own approaches being appropriated by the Coalition with greater conviction.

But Abbott, a hard faction figure who was instrumental in stomping and trampling on any vaguely progressive streak in his own party, was going to eventually worry those within government. First, argues shareholder campaigner Stephen Mayne, there was the issue of convenience and expediency. “The Cabinet is best placed to pass judgment on Abbott and they know better than anyone that he was never fit to be PM and cannot possibly lead the Liberals to the next election.”

Since the election victory in September 2013, Abbott has simply affirmed what he always was. He is an avid monarchist, to the point of parody – witness his granting of an Australian version of a knighthood to Prince Philip. He is provincially stingy and mean-spirited in his concept of welfare – his obsession with seeking a co-payment from patients visiting their general practitioner being a case in point. He is insufferably obsequious when it comes to the US-Australian alliance, which doubles up as an Anglophone wet dream in search of a purpose, usually a military one.

The story, however, goes deeper than that. This is a government that is not working. The detention centres remain riddled with problems, however many boats the government claims to have stopped. The shock budget remains severed and retarded, stymied by government defeats in the Senate. Abbott has gone to so far as to ditch that bug bear of the ultra-conservative wing his party – the paid parental leave scheme.

There is, however, another role that requires mentioning: the dark, Iago-like presence of advisors who have become the parasites of the political classes. Australian politics, not exceptionally, has become the field, not of the elected, but the unelected pollsters and advisors. Added to the fact that party members, not the Australian voter, have first say over who is Prime Minister, and you have Westminster’s grand toxic game at play.

Their role has been instrumental in undermining Australian leaders in the modern era of politics. Gillard was told to be “the real Julia,” a cathartic harking back to the realm of authentic politics. The previous one had been, evidently, a fraudulent creation, confetti from the faction machine. Rudd was encouraged to drink beer at the local gaming pub, a situation palpably absurd for a person who distinctly loathed anything connected with the public.

Abbott has had to contend with his chief of staff, Peta Credlin, in a manner similar to US President George Bush’s association with Karl Rove, termed the “brain” of that presidency. Credlin has assumed the air of the untouchable, becoming the equivalent of The Thick of It’s Malcolm Tucker, presumably without Armando Iannucci’s crafted lines. Miranda Devine, conservative columnist, and occasional Rupert Murdoch mouthpiece, fumed at the veneration of Credlin by Coalition supporters, who, it was claimed, had been indispensable to them winning in 2013. “Is Abbott really so desperate to hang on to his chief of staff that he would debase himself so?”

Public relations and poll metrics, not policy, tends to come first. The media runs on this in typical fashion. “The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, shows the Coalition’s primary vote down three points to an eight-month low of 35 per cent. Labor is up two points to 41 per cent” (Herald Sun, Feb 9).

The policy becomes the mirror of fear in response to what the public might do – and here, the public is the hypothetical juju man. The result is that political leaders do not lead but are led, strung along by assumptions and the fear of party members. The instinct of survival, one attained at all costs, puts pay to any decency, let alone effectiveness, of policy. When Westminster met the public relations machine, it ceased to be a viably representative political system – if it ever was. The only thing left for Abbott is to insist that his government not behave like the previous ones, though the disaffected behind this vote will not go away. The ship is holed, and is sinking.

The post Australia’s Leadership Disease – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Selcuk Colakoglu

The Asia-Pacific region has solidified its position as a global center in 2014. In this respect, the summits held by the leading regional organizations the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) carried the weight of the 2014 world agenda. Yet, besides the economic opportunities in Asia, the region’s security risks will continue to be among the top issues discussed in 2015.

The US-China Balance

The main topic of debates revolving around security in the Asia-Pacific is focused on whether or not there is strategic competition between the US and China. Although Beijing reiterates that China has no intention to compete with the US or with any other power, its increasing economic and political influence is enough to make countries in the region worry. Here, other Asian powers such as Japan and India are in search of policies that can balance the rise of China. Australia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have also assumed a more enthusiastic attitude when it comes to balancing the power of China. Indonesia, on the other hand, as a leading country in Southeast Asia, doesn’t want to be forced to choose between the US or China for fear of stoking the fires of polarization. At this point, the policies to be applied and strategies to be implemented by the US will be decisive in determining the attitudes of other Asian countries towards China. But it should be bore in mind that the debate on whether China is a hegemonic power in Asia or not is also a debate that aims to predict the future of the region and the world at large, especially in the mid and long terms. Actually, China is the largest trade partner of the US, as well as that of other countries in the region such as Japan, India, and Vietnam.

Hong Kong Protests

One of the most difficult situations that China faced in 2014 took place in its autonomous region of Hong Kong. In 1997, the UK relinquished control of Hong Kong to China along with assurances that the region would maintain significant financial and administrative autonomy. The desire of Beijing to increase its control over the region by making changes to its electoral system sparked intense reaction. Here, Hong Kong was engulfed by mass protests from September to December, with University students playing an especially important role in the demonstrations. This occurrence has led many to question the “Beijing Consensus”, which had been presented to the world as China’s development model that would ensuring social justice, peace, and good governance throughout the country. In this regard, claims that the people of China would not be satisfied with successful development and social welfare alone and would demand more democracy and freedom gained strength.

The most affected external actor of the Hong Kong protests was Taiwan, as China had already had plans to integrate the island with the mainland by making use of the “one country, two systems” model that has been in place in Hong Kong. In Taiwan’s local elections in November, the ruling Kuomintang Party, which is pro-unification with China, lost considerable ground, while the Democratic Progressive Party, which campaigned on a pro-independence platform, won a decisive victory. This case has been assessed as a response of the Taiwanese people to the idea of reunification with China based on the Hong Kong model.

Border and Island Conflicts

In 2014, the Asia-Pacific experienced an intensification of tensions as a result of the disputes over islands and maritime areas. Here, the dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands became more and more heated throughout the year.

The most complex maritime disputes in the region are taking place in the South China Sea. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan are all involved in disputes over the sovereignty of various islands located in the area. In addition, there are also disputes currently occurring between Japan and South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia, and Malaysia and Singapore. Again, border disputes between China and India, Pakistan and India, and Thailand and Cambodia have seen no progress for a considerable amount of time. These border issues are considered to be serious obstacles to the development of bilateral relations, although they were not placed so high on the agenda in 2014. In addition, the general trend of growing nationalism in Asia also complicates the processes that could eventually lead to the solution of these types of boundary and territorial disputes. Nonetheless, up until now Asian countries have managed to prevent these inland and maritime problems from having an adverse effect on their economic relations.

North Korea and Myanmar

North Korea continues to be the black box of Asia if not the world. It is extremely difficult to predict the behavior of North Korea and its young leader Kim Jong-un. Concerns emanating from the uncertainty of North Korea’s actions are further augmented when considering that the country possesses nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. From time to time, North Korea tries to play a decisive role in the regional balancing act by escalating tensions or soothing them. In 2014, North Korea continued to maintain close relations with China and Russia, both of whose support in international arena is crucial for North Korea. With the help of these partners, Pyongyang ensured that the claims of widespread and systematic human rights violations in North Korea would be vetoed at the UN Security Council in December. And finally, the copious debate on whether a Hollywood comedy film about an attempt to assassinate the leader of North Korea would be shown or not due to North Korean threats was enough to rekindle considerations of North Korea’s power and influence.

Myanmar, as the host of the 2014 ASEAN Summit, continued its integration into the international system, and the Western world in particular, by hosting the leaders of the Asia-Pacific region. Thus, the reform process of democratization in Myanmar which began in 2010 seems to be steadily progressing. However, various ethnic groups in Myanmar, especially the Muslims of Rohingya, continue to suffer from discrimination and difficulties in obtaining equal citizenship rights.

Non-Traditional Security Risks

Non-traditional security threats in Asia-Pacific region have been gradually increasing. Countries in the region still have not been able to foster effective collaboration with one another in combatting international terrorism, international crime organizations, maritime piracy, cybercrime, energy insecurity, illegal immigration, climate change and food insecurity. Regional organizations such as APEC, ASEAN, and SCO have so far shown difficulty in acting fast enough in the development of a common agenda and method that would allow for the actors of the region to cooperatively struggle against these issues. Here, it is quite difficult the countries to reach an agreement and to take action, as they each have varying priorities and approaches.

As a result, security risks in the Asia-Pacific have appeared to increase in 2014 and the expectations that these risks can be overcome in 2015 are low. Although no explosive problem is expected in the region in the short term, if adequate precautions are not taken in time, in the mid term, the Asia-Pacific may face a serious crisis.

The post Changing Balances In The Asia-Pacific – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Deepak Kumar Nayak*

On January 22, 2015, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres burnt around 14 vehicles of an Andhra Pradesh-based private company engaged in road construction on the Gharanji-Pustola stretch in Dhanora tehsil (revenue unit) of Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra. The Maoists also roughed up a few labourers during the attack. Eight tractors, two trucks, one road roller, two JCB machines, a pickup van and two motorcycles belonging to the workers were among the vehicles which were set on fire.

On the same day, a senior woman CPI-Maoist ‘deputy commander’, identified as Punai Devsingh Naitam (24) aka Aruna, was arrested by the Gadchiroli District Police from Kangadi village on Gadchiroli-Rajnandgaon border in an intelligence-based operation. Aruna carried a reward of INR 600,000.

After the dramatic consolidation of gains by the Maharashtra Police in 2013 against the Maoists, the State retained the advantage against the ultras in 2014, despite a major setback on May 11, 2014. An operational lapse resulted in seven Security Force (SF) personnel being killed in a landmine blast by Maoists near Murmuri village in Chamorshi tehsil (revenue unit) of Gadchiroli District on May 11. Nevertheless, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Maharashtra recorded a total of 30 fatalities – nine civilians, 11 SF personnel and 10 Maoists – in Maoist-related violence in 2014, as against 45 fatalities – 10 civilians, seven SF personnel and 28 Maoists – in 2013. A superficial examination of the data would suggest that the Maoists are staging a recovery in the State, with casualties suffered by the extremists decreasing almost two thirds from 28 to 10, and casualties suffered by the SF personnel increasing from seven to 11. However, a deeper look at the situation points to the waning Maoist strength in the Maharashtra.

The number of civilian fatalities and the number of incidents in which these fatalities occurred in 2014 remain comparable across 2013-2014 [eight incidents and nine fatalities in 2014; eight incidents and 10 fatalities in 2013]. A single incident accounted for seven SF fatalities out of the total 11 through 2014; while Maoists also lost seven cadres in a single incident out of the total of 10 through the year. This suggests that both the SFs and the Maoists are avoiding engagement in general, and focusing on targeted attacks where a position of advantage clearly accrues.

More significantly, Maoist losses have mounted dramatically in terms of quality of arrests and surrenders and fatalities. Among the most important arrests was ‘deputy commander’ Punai Devsingh Naitam aka Aruna. Further, Jethuram Dhurwa aka Raju, ‘commander’ of Aundhi Local Organisational Squad (LOS), who carried a bounty of INR 1.6 million announced by the Chhattisgarh Government, was arrested by the Gadchiroli Police during an anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism (LWE)] operation along the Maharashtra-Chhattisgarh border on September 15, 2014. Five top CPI-Maoist cadres were arrested during a three-day operation from October 21 to October 23, 2014. They included ‘commander’ Dunga Yesu Bapu Teka (30), with a reward of INR 1.2 million; ‘section commander’ Manas Sonare Sainu Tarami (21) with a reward of INR 800,000; local supplier Raju Vishnu Naitam with a reward of INR 200,000; ‘commander’ Vasant Rejiram Pathiram Wadde (21) with a reward of INR 200,000; and woman Maoist cadre Rupi Suman Gawade (16), alleged to be a local ‘committee member’, and also carrying a bounty of INR 200,000.

A former CPI-Maoist ‘commander’, identified as Gopi Niriasai Darbari Madavi, with a bounty of INR 1.2 million on his head, surrendered before the Police in Gadchiroli District on November 11, 2014. Madavi belonged to the Korchi dalam (squad) in Gadchiroli District and was involved in as many as 18 encounters in and around the District.

The total number of arrests and surrenders, however, decreased from 22 and 32, respectively, in 2013, to 12 and 21, respectively, in 2014. However, on a qualitative scale, the result remained good, as a number of leadership cadres were neutralized.

Two Maoists killed in an encounter on August 12, 2014, in Khobramenda Forest in the Kurkheda Block in Gadchiroli District were identified as Krishna Thakur alias Raju (35) and Sonu Katenge alias Dasrath (25). While Dasrath was a ‘deputy section commander’; Raju, known for his aggressive guerrilla warfare skills, was a former activist of Chandrapur-based Deshbhakti Yuva Manch.

Further, the number of major incidents (each resulting in three or more fatalities) in 2014 was restricted to just two, as compared to seven in 2013. Of the two, in one incident [Chamorshi attack May 11, 2014], SFs suffered seven fatalities; while in the other, on February 18, the Maoists suffered seven fatalities.

Geographically, all fatalities, indeed, all Maoist violence, remained confined to just one District – Gadchiroli, through 2014. In 2013, while most fatalities occurred in Gadchiroli, a single fatality was also reported from Gondia District.

Other patterns of Maoist violence also indicated a decline in 2014. There were a total of nine incidents of exchange-of-fire that took place between the SFs and the Maoists in the State in 2014, as against 12 in 2013, and 22 in 2012. Of these nine incidents in 2014, the Maoists initiated the attack in six, while SFs initiated the attack in three. Further, the Maoists engineered two incidents of landmine blasts in 2014, the same number as the previous year. There was just one incident of arson in 2014 – on April 21, a group of over 50 Maoists set ablaze vehicles deployed for construction work on Dechlipetha-Jimalgatta road near Dechlipetha village in Jimalgatta subdivision of Gadchiroli District – in comparison to four such incidents in 2013 [all in Gadchiroli District].

The diminishing strength of Maoists was further evidenced in the fact that they failed to enforce any bandh (shut down strike) in the State throughout 2014, where as they had imposed four bandh calls in 2013, and six such in 2012. There were no cases of abduction by Maoists in 2014, while one such case was recorded in 2013, and seven in 2012. Gadchiroli experienced a comparatively peaceful Lok Sabha election on April 10, 2014, barring two incidents of firing in which one Policeman was killed and five were injured. Even the State Assembly election conducted in October 2014 had mostly passed peacefully, with Gadchiroli and Gondia recording a 67.3 per cent and 68.27 per cent voter turnout, respectively.

Though violent Maoist activities remained confined to just Gadchiroli District, the arrest of Maoist operatives Arun Bhelke and his wife Kanchan Nanaware, both natives of Chandrapur, by the Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) from a slum in Pune on September 2, 2014, indicated that the Maoists remained hopeful of spreading their network into Maharashtra’s cities. The couple changed their location frequently, used different names while interacting with different persons, and developed contacts with youth from backward classes and minorities at 20 locations in Pune, including “Mass Movement”, an organisation mainly comprising Dalit youth from the Kasewadi slums. Police disclosed that Bhelke was trying to indoctrinate these youth in the Maoist ideology. Further, cracking down on the Maoists’ urban network, investigating agencies probing Delhi University Assistant Professor G.N. Saibaba, who was arrested by Maharashtra Police on May 9, 2014, for alleged CPI-Maoist links, reportedly extracted some e-mails and information from his computer that suggest he had recruited at least one more student from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), described as “Goswami” in Saibaba’s correspondence, as a “professional revolutionary” to work in Chhattisgarh. Saibaba’s bail plea was rejected by the Nagpur Bench of the Bombay High Court, though the Court granted bail to former journalist and Human Rights activist Prashant Rahi, a co-accused in the same case.

The Maharashtra Government’s new Naxal (LWE) surrender policy (cleared by the Cabinet on August 20, 2014) improves on the model surrender policy suggested by the Union Government. The policy substantially augmented financial benefits and the rehabilitation package offered to surrendered Maoists, with two to three fold increases across board. The central leadership would now receive INR 1.6 million to 2 million on surrender, while fringe supporters at the village level, such as members of the gram raksha dal (GRD), are being offered INR 150,000.

To boost the morale of the SFs in fighting against the Maoists, the Maharashtra Government decided to give promotions to Policemen doing outstanding work in CPI-Maoist affected Gadchiroli, Bhandara, Gondia and Chandrapur Districts.

According to National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data, Maharashtra’s Police-population ratio, at 170 per 100,000 [as on December 31, 2013], is significantly higher than the national average of 141. This, however, is still substantially lower than the 220/100,000 ratio regarded as desirable for ‘peacetime policing’. With the additional challenge of the Maoist insurgency, the Maharashtra Police requires significantly greater numbers, as well as a substantially larger allocation of other resources. Despite limitations, however, the Police had done a remarkable job in its campaign against Maoists, and had developed an excellent intelligence network to mount narrowly targeted operations.

Meanwhile, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel deployed in Maharashtra are being replaced with Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) units earlier deployed in the Bastar area of Chhattisgarh. The CRPF personnel relieved from Maharashtra would be moved to Bastar. This is being done to ensure better coordination between forces across State borders and maintain a single command chain in any given area in the Maoist-affected zones. ITBP personnel were already present in Rajnandgaon District in Chhattisgarh, which is contiguous to Gadchiroli District, while Bastar will have contiguous areas under CRPF.

In an effort to improve communication for better coordination among the SFs, a senior Police officer posted in Gadchiroli disclosed, on November 16, 2014, 37 mobile towers are to be installed in Gadchiroli, 17 in Gondia and six in Chandrapur District, by Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd. (BSNL), over the succeeding 12 months. This initiative was approved by the Union Cabinet on August 20, 2014, under a scheme for the extension of mobile telephonic services to 2,199 locations affected by LWE in the States of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

Further, the State Government has decided to allocate INR 640 million to four LWE-affected Districts in the Vidarbha region to fast-track their development. Under the Integrated Action Plan (IAP) to develop tribal and backward Districts in LWE-hit areas, the Centre will provide a total of INR 1,200 million for 2014-15, to be distributed equally among the four Districts of the backward Vidarbha region. In addition, a report on January 13, 2015, suggested that the State Government intended to give a big push to infrastructure development in Naxalite affected Districts and would also provide additional benefits to civil contractors and employees working there. The State Government has lined up INR 39.42 billion worth of projects in the LWE affected areas to improve connectivity.

A successful anti-Maoist campaign mounted by the Maharashtra Police has considerably weakened the rebels in the State. A lot of this success is ascribed to targeted intelligence-based operations. This intelligence network, however, is at risk of being compromised, with reports of shabby treatment of informers trickling in. An alleged Police informer, Vijay Prakash Gupta alias Pappu Gupta, claimed that he was used by the Police, but had subsequently been abandoned to fight threats from the Maoists on his own. The Police have strongly refuted his allegations, though the May 11, 2014, Murmuri IED attack is being seen as a “big failure” of Police intelligence.

The Maoists have, in the past, demonstrated tremendous capacities of resilience and resurgence. The state’s successes in Maharashtra cannot give cause for any complacency on the part of intelligence and enforcement agencies, particularly as the Maoists retain significant operational capabilities in contiguous areas across State boundaries.

*Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The post India: Maoists’ Weakening Base In Maharashtra – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sri Lanka’s Minister for Defence Ruwan Wijewardene said in Vavuniya that a committee will be appointed on a directive of the President to commence the program to release lands in the North back to civilians.

Wijewardene explained that the lands in the North and East Provinces will be released back to civilians in a just and fair manner after discussions with Resettlement Minister D.M. Swaminathan and members of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA).

The Minister added that there would not be a necessity to remove army camps in the North in order to release lands required by the civilians.

The TNA and other representatives of the North have called on the new government to release the excessive lands that have been held by the military as high security zones (HSZs) without closing down any military camp.

Wijewardene has noted that over 80 percent of the people in the North had placed their faith in the new government and they will not be disappointed.

The post Sri Lanka To Appoint Committee To Inquire Land Issue In North appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(EurActiv) — Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras laid out plans on Sunday (8 February) to dismantle Greece’s “cruel” austerity programme, ruling out any extension of its international bailout and setting himself on a collision course with his European partners at a summit in Brussels later this week.

In his first major speech to parliament since storming to power last month, Tsipras rattled off a list of moves to reverse reforms imposed by European and International Monetary Fund lenders; from reinstating pension bonuses and cancelling a property tax to ending mass layoffs and raising the mininum wage back to pre-crisis levels.

Showing little intent to heed warnings from EU partners to stick to commitments in the €240 billion bailout, Tsipras said he intended to fully respect campaign pledges to heal the “wounds” of the austerity that was a condition of the money.

Greece would achieve balanced budgets but would no longer produce unrealistic primary budget surpluses, he said, a reference to requirements to be in the black excluding debt repayments.

Greece ‘cannot ask for an extension of mistakes’

“The bailout failed,” the 40-year-old leader told parliament to applause. “We want to make clear in every direction what we are not negotiating. We are not negotiating our national sovereignty.”

In a symbolic move that appeared to take direct aim at Greece’s biggest creditor, Tsipras finished off his speech with a pledge to seek World War II reparations from Germany.

Tsipras ruled out an extending the bailout beyond 28 February when it is due to end. But he said he believed a deal with European partners could be struck on a so-called “bridge” agreement within the next 15 days to keep Greece afloat.

“The new government is not justified in asking for an extension,” he said. “Because it cannot ask for an extension of mistakes.”

Athens – which is shut out of bond markets and will struggle to finance itself without more aid quickly – plans to service its debt, Tsipras said.

“The Greek people gave a strong and clear mandate to immediately end austerity and change policies,” he said. “Therefore the bailout was first cancelled by its very own failure and its destructive results.”

Humanitarian crisis

Tsipras’ stance is being closely watched by EU leaders who to date have shown scant willingness to meet his demands. They fear a wholesale backtracking on the fiscal and economic reforms and a return to the free-spending days of the past that helped Greece rack up over €300 billion in debt.

In a bid to show he was serious about avoiding a new upward spiral in public spending, Tsipras announced a series of cuts to make the government leaner by trimming ministerial benefits like cars and selling one of the prime minister’s aircraft.

He also outlined plans to crackdown on tax evasion by targeting the rich and pledged public sector contracts would no longer favour oligarchs, a move that is likely to make him popular among the many Greeks fed up of a state they believe serves the wealthy.

Greeks have been severely hit by the austerity imposed on them by the “troika” of European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and European Commission lenders. The country is only just coming out of years of economic depression, but roughly one in four Greeks are unemployed.

“The first priority of this government … is tackling the big wounds of the bailout, tackling the humanitarian crisis just as we promised to do before the elections,” Tsipras said.

Plan for change

Over the past week, Greek officials have laid out what they see as a transitional plan to keep finances flowing over the next few months while they renegotiate their debt agreement.

Instead of the next tranche of bailout funds – €7.2 billion due, pending a suspended review – Greece’s new government wants the right to issue more short-term debt beyond a current €15 billion threshold. It also wants €1.9 billion in profits from Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank and other eurozone authorities.

With that as a bridge, Greek officials would then try to renegotiate payment of Greek sovereign bond debt, perhaps by extending payments, only paying interest and getting some respite on the budget surplus it is expected to run.

One government official suggested that not everything had to happen at once.

“The pace of the implementation of our promises is ‘within four years’,” the official said.

Tsipras gave no indication of that during his speech, but voiced optimism that a deal with Europe could happen quickly.

“Many ask: Is this possible to happen in the next days? The contacts I had with the institutional partners of the European Union convinced me that it is feasible,” he said.

“Of course there may be many issues which are likely to require time to negotiate, such as the debt issue. But we are fully ready to agree now on most issues as part of a full programme.”

The post Greece: PM Tsipras Defies EU By Ruling Out Bailout Extension appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Michael P. Noonan*

On Friday the Obama administration released its second, and likely last, National Security Strategy. Such strategies are produced in both classified and unclassified forms and have been required since the passage of the Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 (Goldwater-Nichols Act). They are supposed to be submitted annually along with the president’s annual budget. Like the Obama presidency, the Bush 43 administration also only produced two. By statute, USC 50, § 3043(b), they

…shall set forth the national security strategy of the United States and shall include a comprehensive description and discussion of the following:

(1) The worldwide interests, goals, and objectives of the United States that are vital to the national security of the United States.

(2) The foreign policy, worldwide commitments, and national defense capabilities of the United States necessary to deter aggression and to implement the national security strategy of the United States.

(3) The proposed short-term and long-term uses of the political, economic, military, and other elements of the national power of the United States to protect or promote the interests and achieve the goals and objectives referred to in paragraph (1).

(4) The adequacy of the capabilities of the United States to carry out the national security strategy of the United States, including an evaluation of the balance among the capabilities of all elements of the national power of the United States to support the implementation of the national security strategy.

(5) Such other information as may be necessary to help inform Congress on matters relating to the national security strategy of the United States.

Such strategies, while they help to elucidate a president’s vision of threats and opportunities vis-à-vis their foreign and defense policies, are also very aspirational.

President Obama’s 2015 National Security Strategy reiterates the 2010 vision that the United States’ enduring interests are:

• The security of the United States, its citizens, and U.S. allies and partners;
• A strong, innovative, and growing U.S. economy in an open international economic system that promotes opportunity and prosperity;
• Respect for universal values at home and around the world; and
• A rules-based international order advanced by U.S. leadership that promotes peace, security, and opportunity through stronger cooperation to meet global challenges.

The top strategic risks are listed as:

• Catastrophic attack on the U.S. homeland or critical infrastructure;
• Threats or attacks against U.S. citizens abroad and our allies;
• Global economic crisis or widespread economic slowdown;
• Proliferation and/or use of weapons of mass destruction;
• Severe global infectious disease outbreaks;
• Climate change;
• Major energy market disruptions; and
• Significant security consequences associated with weak or failing states (including mass atrocities, regional spillover, and transnational organized crime).

President Obama in his introduction to the strategy states that

On all these fronts [from diplomacy to military strength to nonproliferation to the promotion of democracy and human rights], America leads from a position of strength. But, this does not mean we can or should attempt to dictate the trajectory of all unfolding events around the world. As powerful as we are and will remain, our resources and influence are not infinite. And in a complex world, many of the security problems we face do not lend themselves to quick and easy fixes. The United States will always defend our interests and uphold our commitments to allies and partners. But, we have to make hard choices among many competing priorities, and we must always resist the over-reach that comes when we make decisions based upon fear. Moreover, we must recognize that a smart national security strategy does not rely solely on military power. Indeed, in the long-term, our efforts to work with other countries to counter the ideology and root causes of violent extremism will be more important than our capacity to remove terrorists from the battlefield.

The challenges we face require strategic patience and persistence. They require us to take our responsibilities seriously and make the smart investments in the foundations of our national power. Therefore, I will continue to pursue a comprehensive agenda that draws on all elements of our national strength, that is attuned to the strategic risks and opportunities we face, and that is guided by the principles and priorities set out in this strategy. Moreover, I will continue to insist on budgets that safeguard our strength and work with the Congress to end sequestration, which undercuts our national security.

According to the strategy the U.S. will lead with strength, by example, with capable partners, with all instruments of national power, and with a long-term perspective. But the document claims that five recent transitions are complicating current international politics:

First, power among states is more dynamic [particularly India’s potential, China’s rise, and Russian aggression]…

Second, power is shifting below and beyond the nation-state [e.g, the rise of mega-cities and non-state actors]….

Third, the increasing interdependence of the global economy and rapid pace of technological change are linking individuals, groups, and governments in unprecedented ways….

Fourth, a struggle for power is underway among and within many states of the Middle East and North Africa….

Fifth, the global energy market has changed dramatically…. [D]eveloping countries now consume more energy than developed ones, which is altering energy flows and changing consumer relationships.

***

While the document seems to make many good arguments about the challenges facing the United States and wisely accounts for the limits of American power, particularly in the realm of the use of military force, it is unclear whether “strategic patience and persistence” will always be effective or will simply put us further behind the eight ball. The leading from behind strategy which debuted in Libya, for instance, likely created as many problems as it solved as witnessed both by the chaos unleashed in Mali after Tauregs fighting in Libya brought arms back to the Sahel and by the current instabilities in Libya itself. The sanctions in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine–and its support for separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia–also have not severely impacted their behavior contra claims in the strategy.

In Syria, meanwhile, strategic patience has led to a worsening situation there, in Iraq, and–increasingly–in Lebanon. Clearly the situation is not one open to easy fixes and it is not at all clear that earlier support to opposition forces would have made the situation on the ground better today. But patient reaction certainly has not made the situation better either. The “coalition” of forces corralled to deal with the situation has been disjointed and the myriad interests of partners may be creating a policy that is lesser than the sum of its parts.

Finally, the current situation in Yemen appears to show the weakness of applying a doctrine of surgical strikes (by drones and special operations forces) to deal with a metastasizing al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Rather than working to build effective Yemeni security forces we seem to have focused on building their strike forces that might be useful for conducting raids, but not so much for building effective security forces that can control territory and work at building legitimacy.

Undeniably, the United States faces myriad current and future challenges. As noted in the strategy, the tools of U.S. power are limited and cannot be applied everywhere. Even U.S. military power is still encumbered by a sequestration policy that impacts readiness and procurement. The administration is right to try to undo that policy, although it is unclear if the domestic political realities will allow that to happen. We must certainly come to grips with trying to use all elements of national power, to include the use of military force, to deal with the current and future strategic environment, both in terms of threats and opportunities. However, it must also be remembered that while patience may be a virtue, sometimes selective, thoughtful assertiveness across the elements of power may help us improve conditions on the ground and advance both the United States’ and its partners’ interests.

About the author:
*Dr. Michael P. Noonan is the Director of Research, and is the Director of the Program on National Security, at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. His current research focuses on civil-military relations, indirect approaches and strategy (particularly as they relate to political and irregular warfare), the roles and missions of the U.S. military, and transnational foreign fighters. A former Captain in the U.S. Army Reserve, in 2006- 2007 he served on a Military Transition Team (MiTT) with an Iraqi light infantry battalion in and around the northern city of Tal`Afar. Among other professional affiliations, he is a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a fellow of the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, a life member of the Veterans of Foreign Wars, and has consulted for the Institute for Defense Analyses. He holds a PhD in political science from Loyola University Chicago and is also a graduate of the University of Scranton and Creighton University. Dr. Noonan has taught at Loyola University Chicago and Haverford College. His writings have appeared in The American Interest, Orbis, Parameters, National Security Studies Quarterly, and FPRI E-Notes. He is the editor of, and contributor to, Geopoliticus: The FPRI Blog and also blogs at the U.S. News and World Report’s World Report and at War on the Rocks.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

The post The National Security Strategy Of Strategic Patience And Persistence? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Ambreen Agha

…Violence in Karachi has become so commonplace that reports of ever more gruesome excesses against the citizens are usually taken in the stride… — Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), January 9, 2014.

At least 61 Shias were killed and more than 50 others were injured in a bomb attack on Karbala-e-Moalla Imambargah (Shia place of commemoration) in the Lakhidar area of Shikarpur District in the Sindh Province on January 30, 2015. More than 300 worshippers were inside the double-storey compound of the Imambargah and the prayer leader, Maulvi Tanveer Hussain Shah, was delivering the Friday sermon when the bomb exploded. The ‘spokesman’ of Jundullah, a splinter faction of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Ahmed Marwat, declared, “We claim responsibility for attack on Shias in Shikarpur very happily. Our target was the Shia community… They are our enemies.”

On December 22, 2014, a Police team of District Malir killed 13 al Qaeda and TTP terrorists during a shootout in the Deluxe Town bungalows of the Sohrab Goth area in Gadap Town, Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh. However, TTP ‘commander’ Khan Zaman Mehsud and some of his associates managed to flee under the cover of fire.

According to partial data compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Sindh has already recorded 133 fatalities in 2015, including 99 civilians, nine Security Force (SF) personnel and 25 terrorists in 2015 (data till January 31, 2015) and remains the second worst terrorism-affected region across Pakistan in terms of such fatalities. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) ranks first, with 249 killed, including nine civilians, 15 SF personnel and 225 terrorists.

Sindh, however, has recorded the highest number of civilian fatalities, at 99, over this period, followed by 12 in Punjab, nine each in Balochistan and FATA, and eight in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

According to SATP data, this has been the trend since 2011, with Sindh ranking second worst across Pakistan in terms of overall fatalities (after FATA), while recording the highest number of civilian fatalities in terrorist violence. Terrorist attacks, sectarian and political violence, and gang wars are the three patterns of violence that dominate Sindh.

Sindh recorded 1,180 fatalities, including 734 civilians, 128 SF personnel and 318 terrorists in 2014; adding to 1,668 such fatalities, including 1,285 civilians, 156 SF personnel and 227 terrorists in 2013. There were 1,215 incidents of killing in 2014, and 728 such incidents in 2013. There were 76 major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) in 2014, resulting in 375 fatalities; in addition to 56 such incidents and 282 resultant fatalities in 2013. Incidents of bomb blasts and resultant fatalities in 2014 stood at 72 and 61, respectively. There were 122 such incidents and 193 resultant fatalities in 2013.

Meanwhile, as in previous years, Karachi remained the worst affected among Sindh’s 23 Districts. Of the total of 1,180 fatalities in Sindh through 2014, at least 1,135 fatalities (96.18 per cent) were registered in Karachi alone, followed by 13 in Hyderabad District, 12 in Kashmore, six in Jacobabad, five in Khairpur, four in Sukkur, two each in Jamshoro and Ghotki, and one in Mirpurkhas.

The worsening situation in Karachi has been exacerbated by the presence of a wide range of sectarian-terrorist outfits operating in the city. These prominently include TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Sipah-e-Sahaba-Pakistan (SSP), Jundullah, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Sunni Tehreek (ST) and Sipah-e-Muhammad Pakistan (SMP), among many others. Unsurprisingly, barring two fatalities in Hyderabad District and one in Mirpurkhas, all 83 killings in 52 sectarian attacks in Sindh Province occurred in Karachi alone.

Significantly, on January 30, 2015, Human Rights Watch (HRW) in its World Report 2015 noted that violent attacks on religious minorities rose significantly in 2014, as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Government failed to ensure religious freedoms. HRW Deputy Asia Director Phelim Kine, in a stinging observation, noted,

Pakistan’s Government did little in 2014 to stop the rising toll of killings and repression by extremist groups that target religious minorities…The Government is failing at the most basic duty of government — to protect the safety of its citizens and enforce rule of law.

Targeted political killings have also been a rising trend in the provincial capital. Activists of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Awami National Party (ANP) have been the principal targets, with a total of 391 activists of these parties, including 221 of MQM, 106 of ANP, and 64 of PPP, killed since 2011. 46 of these, including 30 MQM, and eight each of ANP and PPP, were killed in 2014 alone. Moreover, political parties have also drawn the ire of TTP and its splinter groups. On November 21, 2014, at least 23 people, including three MQM Members of Provincial Assembly (MPA) were injured in a blast at a MQM membership camp in Orangi Town, Karachi. TTP-Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (TTP-JuA) ‘spokesman’ Ehsanullah Ehsan while claiming responsibility for the attack on his Twitter account, declared that the attack on MQM was part of the drive against ANP, MQM, PPP and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and warned, further, that such attacks on these parties would continue.

In another such attack, on November 23, 2014, the District West President of the ANP, Dr. Ziauddin (50), was shot dead while travelling back to his home from the mosque after offering Isha (evening) prayers in Frontier Morr of Orangi Town. TTP-Hakeemullah Mehsud group ‘commander’ Gilaman Mehsud claimed responsibility for Ziauddin’s assassination, and warned, “Since ANP is a secular party, which is aiding the law enforcers in arresting TTP operatives in Karachi, they are attacking its leadership and will continue to do so in future.” Ziauddin had earlier been threatened and attacked by TTP. On September 28, 2013, he had escaped a bomb attack outside his residence in Frontier Morr. The attack was the result of non-compliance to an extortion demand of PKR 1 million by TTP. The TTP had, moreover, demanded that he quit ANP, and had warned him of dire consequences if he did not comply.

Turf wars between two prominent criminal gangs, the Uzair Baloch-led People’s Amn Committee (PAC, People’s Peace Committee) and the Ghaffar Zikri-led Lyari gang, and their multiple local wings, are another aspect of the endemic violence in Karachi. Despite being banned, these criminal formations continue to operate with the support of their political patrons. The PAC is alleged to be supported by PPP and the Zikri group operates in collusion with MQM.

In the most recent targeted operation against the gangsters, on February 1, 2015, SFs killed five criminals in an encounter in the Salar Goth area of Malir Town in Karachi. They were identified as Akbar Maliri, Khalid Lashari, Sheraz Ibrahim aka Comrade of Malir, Gulab Hasan aka Peero, and Yousuf Pathan. Akbar Maliri, was stated to be the main character in the gang warfare in parts of Malir and belonged to the Uzair Baloch group. Maliri was also allegedly involved in a grenade attack at a ground near Salar Goth on January 26, 2015, in which a man was killed and another 12 were injured. These gangsters were described as “the symbol of terror in the city” and had been involved in numerous murders and other crimes.

The cumulative impact of these multiple patterns of violence has made Karachi “the most dangerous megacity” in the world, according to a Foreign Policy report. The report cited a murder rate of 12.3 per 100,000 residents, “some 25 per cent higher than any other major city”.

Fearing a spill-over of violence into other parts of the Province, Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah, had cautioned, on February 24, 2014, “Karachi-like terrorism must not hit other parts of Sindh. Terrorism should not make its way into the interior of Sindh with the intensity witnessed in Karachi.” Significantly, Hyderabad, Jacobabad, Kashmore and Khairpur Districts had each witnessed one major incident in 2014. On July 6, 2014, at least three Policemen were killed and two others were injured by unidentified assailants in Latifabad area of Hyderabad city of Hyderabad District. A major incident occurred in Jacobabad District on February 16, 2014, when two coaches of the Peshawar-bound Khushhal Khan Khattak Express derailed after a bomb attack on the tracks near a canal in Thull town of the District. Six people, including four children, were killed and more than 35 were injured. In Kashmore, at least 10 terrorists were killed while some 50 suspects were arrested, when SFs launched an operation in Jani Bheeri village on June 4, 2014. The extremists killed in the operation were involved in the killing of two Rangers near the Bhittai Colony Road in the limits of the Tangwani Police Station in Kandhkot town of the District, on June 3, 2014. In another encounter in Khairpur District, Police shot dead four alleged abductors and safely rescued the hostage, Dr Riaz Bhatti, on December 21, 2014. These attacks indicate the dispersion of the TTP in other parts of Sindh, potentially creating a far greater challenge. In 2013, only two Districts – Hyderabad and Sukkur – had each witnessed one major incident.

In the face of violence and targeted murders, the Federal Government launched a Rangers-led targeted operation against militants and criminals operating in Karachi on September 5, 2013. The operation still continues, but has had little impact on overall security. Assessing the law and order situation in Karachi, a fact-finding mission of HRCP concluded, on July 21, 2014, that the operation launched in September 2013 had failed, and that the “objectives of the operation have not been met”. HRCP Secretary General I.A. Rehman lamented that the operation had been launched on an “ad hoc basis without appropriate planning,” and noted,

Throughout the operation nothing has been done to enhance the capacity of the Police, with the result that the ad hoc measure has essentially become open-ended and indefinite. A working chemistry that should have been there between the Police and Rangers was still missing. The Police were not conducting any operation in Karachi but were merely engaging in proactive policing.

Meanwhile, authorities have been to struggle unsuccessfully to de-weaponize Karachi since 1993. Ironically, on March 30, 2014, in the aftermath of rising incidents of targeted killings of doctors in Karachi, the administration agreed that all doctors would be facilitated to secure weapons’ licenses for their personal protection and would be trained in the proper use of weapons. Doctors would also be allowed to carry their weapons without any legal or administrative hindrance. In an article published in The News on February 1, 2015, journalist Syed Arfeen, observed,

The fragile law and order scenario has developed a potential market for illegal arms and ammunition. It is a huge market spanning from (sic) warlords to private militias, militant organisations to groups affiliated to political parties, drug peddlers to land grabbers. Everyone needs a toy to establish its (sic) authority — and the state and the kingpins of illegal weapons provide this pivotal service at their doorstep.

Karachi has been in a state of crisis for decades now. Its increasing fragility has the potential of transforming into a civil war, engulfing the entire Province, and dispersing into the country at large. The latest incident at Shikarpur demonstrates the increasing penetration of TTP and its murderous factions into other Districts of Sindh.

It is, once again, the criminalization of the state in Pakistan, and the unwillingness to abandon Islamist extremism and terrorism as instruments of state policy, that have resulted in the unbridled and self-destructive violence in Sindh. With the consolidation of the power bases of various armed extremist formations in Karachi – and progressively in other areas of Sindh – the situation is bound to deteriorate further.

*Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The post Pakistan: Permanent Crisis In Sindh – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

My recent column about the growth of on-demand jobs like Uber making life less predictable and secure for workers unleashed a small barrage of criticism that workers get what they’re worth in the market.

A Forbes Magazine contributor, for example, writes that jobs exist only  “when both employer and employee are happy with the deal being made.” So if the new jobs are low-paying and irregular, too bad.

Much the same argument was voiced in the late nineteenth century over alleged “freedom of contract.” Any deal between employees and workers was assumed to be fine if both sides voluntarily agreed to it.

It was an era when many workers were “happy” to toil twelve-hour days in sweat shops for lack of any better alternative.

It was also a time of great wealth for a few and squalor for many. And of corruption, as the lackeys of robber barons deposited sacks of cash on the desks of pliant legislators.

Finally, after decades of labor strife and political tumult, the twentieth century brought an understanding that capitalism requires minimum standards of decency and fairness – workplace safety, a minimum wage, maximum hours (and time-and-a-half for overtime), and a ban on child labor.

We also learned that capitalism needs a fair balance of power between big corporations and workers.

We achieved that through antitrust laws that reduced the capacity of giant corporations to impose their will, and labor laws that allowed workers to organize and bargain collectively.

By the 1950s, when 35 percent of private-sector workers belonged to a labor union, they were able to negotiate higher wages and better working conditions than employers would otherwise have been “happy” to provide.

But now we seem to be heading back to nineteenth century.

Corporations are shifting full-time work onto temps, free-lancers, and contract workers who fall outside the labor protections established decades ago.

The nation’s biggest corporations and Wall Street banks are larger and more potent than ever.

And labor union membership has shrunk to less than 6 percent of the private-sector workforce.

So it’s not surprising we’re once again hearing that workers are worth no more than what they can get in the market.

But as we should have learned a century ago, markets don’t exist in nature. They’re created by human beings. The real question is how they’re organized and for whose benefit.

In the late nineteenth century they were organized for the benefit of a few at the top.

But by the middle of the twentieth century they were organized for the vast majority.

During the thirty years after the end of World War II, as the economy doubled in size, so did the wages of most Americans — along with improved hours and working conditions.

Yet since around 1980, even though the economy has doubled once again (the Great Recession notwithstanding), the wages most Americans have stagnated. And their benefits and working conditions have deteriorated.

This isn’t because most Americans are worth less. In fact, worker productivity is higher than ever.

It’s because big corporations, Wall Street, and some enormously rich individuals have gained political power to organize the market in ways that have enhanced their wealth while leaving most Americans behind.

That includes trade agreements protecting the intellectual property of large corporations and Wall Street’s financial assets, but not American jobs and wages.

Bailouts of big Wall Street banks and their executives and shareholders when they can’t pay what they owe, but not of homeowners who can’t meet their mortgage payments.

Bankruptcy protection for big corporations, allowing them  to shed their debts, including labor contracts. But no bankruptcy protection for college graduates over-burdened with student debts.

Antitrust leniency toward a vast swathe of American industry – including Big Cable (Comcast, AT&T, Time-Warner), Big Tech (Amazon, Google), Big Pharma, the largest Wall Street banks, and giant retailers (Walmart).

But less tolerance toward labor unions — as workers trying to form unions are fired with impunity, and more states adopt so-called “right-to-work” laws that undermine unions.

We seem to be heading full speed back to the late nineteenth century.

So what will be the galvanizing force for change this time?

The post Back To The Nineteenth Century – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Iran’s judiciary immediately should halt plans to execute a man convicted at age 17 of terrorism-related crimes for an armed opposition group and vacate his death sentence, said Human Rights Watch on Monday.

Iran’s Supreme Court affirmed the death sentence for the man, Saman Nasim, in December 2013. His lawyer and family fear that authorities may carry out the sentence in less than two weeks despite an absolute ban on the execution of child offenders in international law. Iranian media reports indicate that Iran has executed at least eight child offenders since 2010. Reports by Amnesty International and other rights groups, however, suggest as many as 31 child offenders may have been executed during that period, making it one of the countries with the world’s highest number of reported child offender executions.

“This is an open-and-shut case since there is no dispute that Saman Nasim was under 18 when security forces arrested him,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa director. “Nasim and his family should have never suffered mental anguish associated with being on death row for months on end, let alone facing imminent hanging.”

Nasim’s lawyer and a source close to the family told Human Rights Watch that they have received information suggesting that the judiciary’s implementation division has cleared the path for Orumiyeh prison, where he is being held, to execute him on or about February 19, 2015. A revolutionary court in Mahabad, in West Azerbaijan province, convicted Nasim of moharebeh, or “enmity against God,” in April 2013 for of his alleged membership in the Kurdish armed opposition group Party For Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), and for carrying out armed activities against Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

According to documents reviewed by Human Rights Watch and Nasim’s lawyer, he was 17 at the time of his arrest in 2011. The Supreme Court initially overturned a lower court death sentence in August 2012, noting that he was under 18 at the time of his arrest, but ultimately affirmed the death sentence.

Aziz Mojdei, Nasim’s lawyer, told Human Rights Watch that the execution on or around February 19 is “very likely.” He said he has seen an official letter clearing the legal path to his client’s execution on or around February 19 although judiciary officials have repeatedly denied plans to execute his client. Mojdei said officials in the judiciary’s implementation division have unlawfully prevented him from thoroughly reviewing the case file for information about the impending execution even though he is the attorney of record. Human Rights Watch has previously documented cases, particularly for national security crimes such as moharebeh, in which prison officials executed detainees without warning their lawyers or families and refused to deliver the body to the family.

Security forces arrested Nasim on July 17, 2011, after he and several other PJAK members allegedly were involved in a gun battle with Revolutionary Guards in the mountains surrounding Sardasht, a city in West Azerbaijan province. Court documents, which Human Rights Watch reviewed, allege that one Revolutionary Guard member was killed and three injured. Mojdei told Human Rights Watch that forensic experts established that Nasim had not been responsible for the killing, but that he was nonetheless convicted and sentenced to death because he had engaged in armed activities on behalf of PJAK, considered a terrorist group by Iran and several other nations, including the United States.

The source close to Nasim’s family told Human Rights Watch that Nasim spent the first few months after his arrest in incommunicado detention in a facility believed to have been operated by the Intelligence Ministry in Orumiyeh. The source said agents tortured Nasim, including beating and lashing him and pulling out his fingernails. In September 2011, Nasim made a “confession,” filmed and aired on state television, in which he said he shot at Revolutionary Guard members. Court documents reviewed by Human Rights Watch indicate that at his trial Nasim denied that he had shot at anyone during the July 17 clashes.

On November 20, 2014, Nasim and 23 other prisoners in Orumiyeh prison began a hunger strike to protest prison conditions. In response, prison officials threatened to expedite the execution of Nasim and several of the others on death row, Amnesty International said.

The irregularities reported in the trials would violate the fair trial provisions of Article 14 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which include the presumption of innocence, adequate time and facilities to prepare one’s defense and to communicate with a lawyer of one’s choosing, and not to be compelled to testify against oneself or to confess guilt. The UN Human Rights Committee has stated that: “In cases of trials leading to the imposition of the death penalty scrupulous respect of the guarantees of fair trial is particularly important.”

“The reported irregularities in Nasim’s trial are only more reason for the judiciary to halt the execution of this child offender and grant him a new and fair trial,” Whitson said. “Inflicting an irreversible punishment is bad enough, but to inflict it on a child offender after an unfair trial is an even greater miscarriage of justice.”

In Iran, 2013 penal code amendments prohibit the execution of child offenders for certain categories of crimes, including drug-related offenses. No prohibition exists, however, for child offenders convicted of murder or hadd crimes – for which punishments are fixed under Iran’s interpretation of Sharia law, including moharebeh. Under article 91 of the amended code, a judge may sentence a boy who is 15 or older or a girl who is 9 or older to death for these crimes if he determines that the child understood the nature and consequences of the crime. The article allows the court to rely on “the opinion of a forensic doctor or other means it deems appropriate” to establish whether a defendant understood the consequences of their actions.

In January 2015, Iran’s judiciary issued a ruling requiring all courts to review death sentences issued for child offenders prior to the 2013 penal code, if defendants and their lawyers petitioned for review. The ruling applied to retribution crimes, including murder. Mojdei, Nasim’s lawyer, told Human Rights Watch that he has petitioned the judiciary and government authorities several times to suspend his client’s execution because he was under 18 at the time of his arrest, but that the petitions were either rejected or not answered.

According to official sources, Iranian authorities executed at least 200 prisoners in 2014, though the real number is thought to be over 700. In 2014 at least eight may have been under 18 at the time of the killings or rapes that led to their death sentences. Human Rights Watch is investigating these cases to determine whether those executed were, in fact, child offenders.

Iran is one of only four countries known to have executed juvenile offenders in the past five years; the others are Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan, as well as Hamas authorities in Gaza. Iran is a state party to the Convention on the Rights of the Child, which bans execution of child offenders. Since 2010, numerous UN rights experts and bodies, including UN experts, the Human Rights Council, and the Human Rights Committee have strongly condemned Iran’s execution of child offenders.

In 2012 Human Rights Watch called on the Iranian government to amend its penal code to impose an absolute prohibition on the death penalty for child offenders. Human Rights Watch has also called on Iran’s judiciary to impose a moratorium on executions due to serious concerns regarding substantive and due process violations leading to the implementation of the death penalty. Human Rights Watch opposes the death penalty in all circumstances because it is an inherently irreversible, inhumane punishment.

The leadership of PJAK and other armed groups operating in Iran should immediately stop recruiting children, whether for military or non-military purposes, Human Rights Watch said. On June 5, 2014, a Syrian Kurdish military leader announced that the group would stop recruiting children, saying that the armed group would demobilize all fighters under 18 within a month. The internal regulations for the Kurdish police and military forces forbid the use of children under 18.

“Leaders of PJAK and other armed groups operating in Iran should know that they are as responsible for putting the lives of children like Nasim’s in harm’s way,” Whitson said. “There is simply no excuse for allowing children to take part in armed activities on behalf of an opposition group.”

The post Call For Iran To Halt Execution Of Child Offender appeared first on Eurasia Review.

President Xi Jinping has placed great emphasis on the rule of law – but what exactly does this mean when the CPC plays the dominant political role in China?

This was the central question at an expert roundtable at the Madariaga Foundation on 4th of February. Gong Pixiang,Deputy Director of the Standing Committee and Member of the Leading Party Group of Jiangsu Provincial People’s Congress, was the main Chinese speaker. Professor François van der Mensbrugghe (ULB) and Benjamin Hartmann (Member, Legal Service of the European Commission) were the European commentators.

The roundtable was held under the background of the 4th Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee which was held last October and which focused on the rule of law. The CPC published a communiqué on “comprehensively advancing the rule of law in China” and a “Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Advancing the Rule of Law” after the plenum. These documents promised to enhance court independence, judicial transparency, fairness to individual litigants, and further professionalise the judicial decision-making. The legal reform which is aiming to build “rule of law with Chinese characteristics” (中国特色的法治) or “rule by law” （依法治国）is one of the main themes of the “deepening reform” launched in 2013 during the 3rd Plenum of the 18th CPC central Committee.

The roundtable focus was on understanding the meaning of “rule of law with Chinese characteristics” or “rule by law” and how the legal reforms will be implemented.

Gong Pixiang stressed the importance of modernized law-making and the importance of gaining citizens respect with regard to legal reform.

Zhang Yansheng (Secretary-General, NDRC Academic Committee) elaborated on the relation between legal reform and economic reforms in China. He said that2013 and 2014 have already shown a different pattern of reforms in China. There is a clear trend away from manufacturing to the services sector. There is a new placed emphasis on innovation with cities like Shenzhen spending more than 4% of its GDP on R&D.

Both speakers agreed that it might take up to 35 years to establish the rule of law and a modern market economy. The main economic implication of legal reform in the next 35 years is that any economic reform should have a proper legal basis. These moves would help EU investors as they would enjoy a level playing field with their Chinese counterparts; they would enjoy improved property rights; and the whole system would be fairer and more transparent.

François van der Mensbrugghe challenged the concept of the “rule by law” in China, and the enforcement of the constitution. He said that although the constitutional rights have been the main theme of the CPC in its 93 years history, and the current constitution of China includes all the constitutional rights such as free speech and human rights, there is no specific means to enforce such rights. The rule by law in China is fundamentally different from rule of law. The rule of law promotes independence of the judiciary, prosecutors, and police and professionalized law making. Rule by law means maintaining the social order and pursuing public goods. Rule by law seems more about using the law to restrict the liberty of people – but not protecting the liberty of people.

Benjamin Hartmann took a similar view. From an EU perspective the rule of law means transparency, fairness; legal certainty; prohibiting arbitrage of administration; independent courts; judicial review; equality). He said that the new EU-China dialogue in the strategic partnership will have a session dedicated to legal affairs, to better understanding EU legal system and the rule of law in China. He hoped these dialogues would lead to greater mutual understanding.

Questions covered the relation between the CPC and the rule of law, the implementation of the documents from the 4th plenum and the implication of 4th plenum in the overall reform programme. The Chinese speakers did not give clear answers to these questions, since there is still no clear timetable after the 4th plenum.

The situation may be clearer after the March meetings of the Third Session of the Twelfth National Committee of the Chinese People\’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the Third Session of the Twelfth National People\’s Congress (NPC). Measures for comprehensively deepening reform, including the legal reform will be the main topic in the two meetings. A timetable for legislation is also expected after the March meetings.

In line with deepening the reform, other topics such as anti-corruption, reform and innovation, income inequality, environmental protection, food and medicine safety, etc., will also be discussed.

Currently all provinces are holding meetings ((Lianghui) to provide local input into the NPC and CPPCC meetings in Beijing.

The post China And The Rule Of Law – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(Civil.Ge) — At a meeting with Georgian PM Irakli Garibashvili on the sideline of the Munich security conference on February 8, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden urged Georgia “to keep its focus on democratic reforms,” the White House said.

It also said that the U.S. Vice President “discussed the implications of the current conflict in eastern Ukraine for European security” and “stressed U.S. support for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

After the meeting, PM Garibashvili told journalists in Munich that bilateral cooperation, including security and energy issues, as well as developments in Ukraine were discussed.

“The U.S. clearly sees the progress that we have achieved in recent years,” PM Garibashvili said. “Of course problems still remain in Georgia, economic problems and others, but – and we also spoke about it – we have concert plans and vision how to overcome these problems. Of course we always have a hope for support from the United States and we stated that we expect support from the U.S., including towards our Euro-Atlantic choice.”

“We also touched upon situation in the region and discussed crisis in Ukraine. We also spoke about number of scenarios of developments in respect of Georgia and we also spoke about threats and challenges that our country faces, but in general the Vice President himself noted that we are on the right track and that we are developing in the right direction and it needs consistency and we hope for the U.S. support,” the Georgian PM said.

The post US Urges Georgia ‘To Keep Focus On Democratic Reforms’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Cardinal Raymond Burke said he was “responding to a hypothetical situation” when he stated that he would resist any possible move by Pope Francis away from Catholic doctrine.

“I simply affirmed that it is always my sacred duty to defend the truth of the Church’s teaching and discipline regarding marriage,” Cardinal Burke told CNA Feb. 9.

“No authority can absolve me from that responsibility, and, therefore, if any authority, even the highest authority, were to deny that truth or act contrary to it, I would be obliged to resist, in fidelity to my responsibility before God.”

Cardinal Burke said his interview with the French television channel France 2, broadcast Feb. 8, was “accurately reported” concerning a question and answer about resisting Pope Francis.

According to a translation of the interview on the blog Rorate Caeli, the cardinal stressed the need for attentiveness to the power of the office of the papacy in Catholic understanding. Papal power is “at the service of the doctrine of the faith,” he explained, “and thus the Pope does not have the power to change teaching, doctrine.”

The interviewer then asked: “In a somewhat provocative way, can we say that the true guardian of doctrine is you, and not Pope Francis?”

“We must, let us leave aside the matter of the Pope,” the cardinal replied. “In our faith, it is the truth of doctrine that guides us.”

“If Pope Francis insists on this path, what will you do?” the interviewer then asked.

“I will resist. I cannot do anything else,” he said.

The cardinal’s statement about resistance drew significant coverage.

Cardinal Burke went on to tell France 2 that the Catholic Church is facing “a difficult time” that is “painful” and “worrisome.”

At the same time, when asked wither the Church as an institution was being threatened, he voiced confidence.

“The Lord assured us, as he assured Saint Peter in the Gospel, that the forces of evil will not prevail – ‘non praevalebunt,’ we say in Latin. That the forces of evil will not achieve, let us say, victory over the Church.”

Asked whether Pope Francis is his friend, the cardinal replied, “I would not want to make of the pope an enemy, certainly!”

The cardinal, a former Archbishop of St. Louis, served from 2008-2014 as Prefect of the Supreme Tribunal of the Roman Rota, effectively the Supreme Court of the Catholic Church. He also sat on the Congregation for Bishops for several years.

Pope Francis removed him from his curial positions and assigned him as Patron of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, a 900-year-old institution focused on the defense of the faith and care for the poor. The order has a presence in over 120 countries, with 13,000 members and 80,000 volunteers.

Cardinal Burke was a leading figure during the October 2014 Extraordinary Synod on the Family. At the time, he told CNA that much of the media had been inaccurately presenting Pope Francis as being in favor of allowing Holy Communion to be distributed to those who are divorced and remarried, along with other proposals.

The post Burke Clarifies ‘Resisting’ Pope Francis Comments appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Much is currently being written and broadcast about what a headline in the Wall Street Journal proclaimed to be The Return of Anti-Semitism (loathing and hatred of Jews). It was over an article by Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks, the former chief rabbi of Britain. According to him “An ancient hatred has been reborn.” He went on:

“Some politicians around the world deny that what is happening in Europe is anti-Semitism. It is, they say, merely a reaction to the actions of the state of Israel, to the continuing conflict with the Palestinians. But the policies of the state of Israel are not made in kosher supermarkets in Paris or in Jewish cultural institutions in Brussels and Mumbai. The targets in these cities were not Israeli. They were Jewish.”

In an article for TIME under the headline: It’s Time To Stop Ignoring the New Wave of Anti-Semitism, Michigan born-and-based Rabbi Jason Miller quoted Sacks and was more explicit in his assertion that an ancient hatred has been reborn. (As well as being a rabbi Miller is the president of an IT and social media marketing company). He wrote:

“I certainly have the capacity and amplification to voice my concerns about the threat of anti-Semitism, this time around emanating not from Nazism, but from Islamism… As Rabbi Sacks makes perfectly clear, the rise of anti-Semitism in the 21st century is not about anti-Israel sentiment… Plain and simple, 21st-century anti-Semitism is the continuation of the same Jewish hatred that has raised its ugly head for centuries. It is the same anti-Semitism that we saw 70 years ago in Europe as 6 million Jewish men, women and children were exterminated.”

In my view Rabbis Sacks and Miller and all who think like them are in complete denial of the link between Israel’s actions which sometimes amount to state terrorism and the transformation of anti-Israelism into anti-Semitism.

What this link is was put into words more than a quarter of a century ago by Yehoshafat Harkabi, a long-serving Director of Israeli Military Intelligence. (I have quoted his warning in several of my previous posts but what he wrote bears repeating, again and again and again). In his book Israel’s Fateful Hour, which contained his call for Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories, and his statement that the biggest real threat to Israel is its self-righteousness, he wrote the following.

“We Israelis must be careful lest we become not a source of pride for Jews but a distressing burden. Israel is the criterion according to which all Jews will tend to be judged. Israel as a Jewish state is an example of the Jewish character, which finds free and concentrated expression within it. Anti-Semitism has deep and historical roots. Nevertheless, any flaw in Israeli conduct, which initially is cited as anti-Israelism, is likely to be transformed into empirical proof of the validity of anti-Semitism. It would be a tragic irony if the Jewish state, which was intended to solve the problem of anti-Semitism, was to become a factor in the rise of anti-Semitism. Israelis must be aware that the price of their misconduct is paid not only by them but also Jews throughout the world. In the struggle against anti-Semitism, the frontline begins in Israel.”

Another way of saying that an ancient hatred has been reborn is that what used to be called the “sleeping giant” of anti-Semitism is waking up. Putting it that way makes understanding possible and here’s why.

After the Nazi holocaust, and because of it, this giant went back to sleep and might well have died in its sleep if Zionism had not been allowed by the major powers to have its way and Israel had been required to be serious about peace on the basis of an acceptable amount of justice for the Palestinians and security for all.

To avoid being misunderstood I must qualify that statement.

There will always be some Jew haters and Nazi holocaust deniers. So what I mean when I say the sleeping giant of anti-Semitism might well have died in its sleep is that it would not have come back to life again as a force capable of seriously threatening the wellbeing and security of the Jews.

The evidence which gives great weight to that analysis can be obtained from just a few moments of reflection about the history of the whole of the second half of the 20th century and much if not all of the first decade of the 21st. What stands out with regard to the Jews is the wellbeing of those who were/are citizens of the Western nations. They were not only secure, they had influence in political, economic and many other spheres out of all proportion to their numbers. (Which is why, generally speaking, I have always regarded the Jews as the intellectual elite of the Western world. And that in turn is why I am amazed that most Jews allowed themselves to be brainwashed by Zionist propaganda and are beyond reason on the matter of justice for the Palestinians as a consequence).

It was Israel’s “misconduct” (what a charming Harkabi euphemism for defiance of international law, on-going colonization and ethnic cleansing by stealth!) that set in motion the rising, global tide of anti-Israelism which, as he warned, is showing signs of a creeping transformation into anti-Semitism.

Put another way, it was Israel’s policies and actions which guaranteed that the sleeping giant would not die in its sleep and would wake up to go on the prowl again.

In its recent report the Community Service Trust (CST) said the number of anti-Semitic incidents in the UK doubled in 2014 – up from 513 in 2013 to 1,168, of which 81 were violent. The non-violent ones included what the CST described as a widely shared image of Hitler with the caption “Yes man, you were right.”

What was the biggest factor behind the rise in the number of anti-Semitic incidents in the UK? In the CST’s own words it was “anti-Semitic reactions to the conflict in Israel and Gaza.” In its own way that finding is surely an indicator that Israel’s policies and actions are the prime cause of the transformation of anti-Israelism into anti-Semitism. It also underlines Harkabi’s point that Jews need to understand “that foreigners’ criticism of Israel stems not only from opportunism, hatred and anti-Semitism, but from what they may see as fair and moral considerations.”

My conclusions?

The only people who can stop the transformation of anti-Israelism into anti-Semitism gathering momentum are the Jews themselves, with those who are citizens of the European nations and America taking the lead.

How could they do it?

Short answer – by declaring that Israel does not speak for or represent them and that they condemn its defiance of international law and denial of justice for the Palestinians.

If they don’t do that there will most likely be a final Zionist ethnic cleansing of Palestine followed at some point by a wide awake giant of anti-Semitism going on the rampage again.

If it really is the case that the sleeping giant of anti-Semitism is waking up, it’s time for European and American Jews to wake up to the fact that the title of my book – Zionism: The Real Enemy of the Jews – is what Ilan Pappe described it as being… “THE truth in seven words.”

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Serious concerns about workers’ rights have not been resolved for a high-profile project in Abu Dhabi that will host branches of the Louvre and Guggenheim museums and a campus of New York University (NYU), Human Rights Watch said in a report released today. These institutions should make their continued engagement with the Saadiyat Island project contingent on the developers’ commitment to more serious enforcement of worker protections and the compensation of workers who suffered abuses, including those arbitrarily deported after they went on strike.

The 82-page report, “Migrant Workers’ Rights on Saadiyat Island in the United Arab Emirates: 2015 Progress Report,” is the third Human Rights Watch report on migrant worker abuses on the Saadiyat Island site. The report details how, five years after Human Rights Watch revealed conditions of forced labor on Saadiyat Island, some employers are withholding workers’ wages and benefits, failing to reimburse them for recruiting fees, confiscating workers’ passports, and housing them in substandard accommodations. In the most serious cases, contractors working for the two government development entities on the NYU and Louvre sites apparently informed United Arab Emirates (UAE) authorities about the strike, leading to the arbitrary deportation of several hundred striking workers.

“The progress in respecting workers’ rights on Saadiyat Island risks being tossed out the window if workers know they can’t protest when things go wrong, and are still getting stuck with recruitment fees and suffering other abuses,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa director. “NYU, the Louvre, and the Guggenheim need to make clear that new laws and codes of conduct are only as good as their enforcement.”

While the abuses concern a small percentage of the workers, the serious problems, which mirror the findings of independent monitors, reveal a gap in enforcement of the UAE development partners’ stated commitments. Workers on the NYU site are supposedly protected by a code of conduct implemented by the Abu Dhabi Executive Affairs Authority and monitored by Mott McDonald. Workers on the Louvre and Guggenheim sites are protected by a code of conduct implemented by the Tourism, Development and Investment Company (TDIC) and monitored by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

Though the government’s developers have never granted access to the site, Human Rights Watch spoke to 116 present and former employees of contractors on Saadiyat Island projects. Interior Ministry representatives informed the researcher as he was leaving the UAE in January 2014 that they were blacklisting him and would not allow him to return.

The UAE has changed its labor law to allow workers to change employers without their consent and to revoke the licenses of agents who charge workers recruitment fees. New codes of conduct regulate contractors on the NYU and museum sites. But workers still endure serious abuses, including summary deportation, Human Rights Watch said.

Workers from BK Gulf, a contractor at the NYU site, and Arabtec, a contractor at the Louvre site, told Human Rights Watch that the UAE authorities arbitrarily detained and deported several hundred workers in separate and unrelated strikes in May and October 2013.

“They [the UAE authorities] arrested everyone they could get their hands on,” said one former BK Gulf worker, who described the arrests, which he and others said were led by a group of masked police officers, as “terrifying.” Another worker said Dubai police slapped and pushed him in an interrogation, and demanded to know who had organized the strike, which the men said led to more than 200 deportations. Neither BK Gulf nor the Abu Dhabi Executive Affairs Authority responded to questions about the incident.

An Arabtec worker detained and then deported over a strike in October 2013 said he is still trying to pay back people in Bangladesh who loaned him the money to pay a US$2,600 recruitment fee, for which his employer had not reimbursed him.

In response to letters from Human Rights Watch, Arabtec said that it agreed to some of the workers’ demands but that “a number of employees were not prepared to accept these arrangements and asked to be repatriated.” UAE media reported that the authorities cancelled the visas of 467 Arabtec employees after the strike.

PwC, the third-party monitor appointed by TDIC in 2011, issued the third in a series of compliance reports in December 2014, confirming many of the Human Rights Watch findings and concluded that the company had not adequately monitored compliance with the codes of conduct. In its 2014 report, PwC noted that TDIC had enforced financial penalties against only three of the six contractors it had sanctioned the previous year, but PwC and TDIC have never named the contractors who have been sanctioned, or specified the reasons for the fines or the amounts. In its response to the Human Rights Watch summary of findings, TDIC contended that without a random sample of workers, the findings did not “truly reflect the reality on the ground.”

The code of conduct that protects workers on the NYU site does not appear to have any penalty policy associated with it. The Abu Dhabi Executive Affairs Authority did not respond to requests for information in that regard.

In light of the ongoing abuses of workers on their projects, Agence France-Muséums, the Solomon R. Guggenheim Foundation, and New York University should make their continued engagement with their projects on Saadiyat Island dependent on public commitments by the UAE government authorities and the two agencies overseeing the projects to protect workers from abuse, penalize contractors for violations, and compensate workers who suffer abuses.

“NYU, the Louvre, and the Guggenheim should surely understand by now that they can’t blindly accept the UAE authorities’ assurances that workers’ rights are being respected,” Whitson said. “They need to exert their influence much more forcefully and demand much more in return for their presence on Saadiyat Island.”

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For visitors to Syria these days, certainly this one, it’s almost become a cliche to shake ones head and mumble, “this is not your normal civil war.” Meaning that in spite of the dangerous environment for families and enormous sacrifices being paid daily, the Syrian people go about their lives with amazing resilience.

Yesterday, 2/5/15, was the latest example. Rebel mortars started raining on downtown at 7 a.m. after a rebel commander Zahran Alloush of the “Islam Army” tweeted that his forces would keep firing mortars and rockets “until the capital is cleansed.” An estimated nine people were killed, and dozens wounded in downtown Damascus from roughly 60 rebel mortars. By the end of the day more than seventy, most of them rebel forces, died as the Syrian army and rebel fighters trading salvos of rockets and mortar bombs.

Despite the bombardment, most office workers showed up for work, students arrived for classes at Damascus University, and the public schools were open although many were dismissed early. This observer had appointments at three different Ministries and only one person I was to meet stayed home because it was near the fighting and he chose not to tempt fate.

One government minister smiled knowingly when his visitor commented that between the Dama Rose hotel and his office, although the streets were at that point nearly empty and the sound of mortars was loud, the street cleaners and trash collectors were nonchalantly going about their work. Students of Syrian culture say examples such as this one reflect the deep and unique connections among Syrians for their country–present and past.
It is becoming commonplace, as the world learns more and becomes more distressed about Syria’s Endangered Heritage to speak of this country as the crucible or cradle of human civilization which spans hundreds of thousands of years. This country is home to some of the world’s first cities, as well as globally important sites from the Akkadian, Sumerian, Hittite, Assyrian, Persian, Greco-Roman, Ummayyad, Crusader, and Ottoman civilizations and to some of the oldest, most advanced civilizations in the world.

The area saw our evolution – for example, at the Middle Acheulian occupation site at Latamne northern Syria between 800 – 500,000 years old, stone tools and possibly even early hearths have been identified as belonging to a civilization hundreds of thousands of years before modern humans evolved 120,000 years ago. 10,000 years ago, the first crops and cattle were domesticated in Syria and the subsequent settlements gave rise to the first city states, such as Ebla and Mari. Writing developed here and the creation of literary epics, art, sculpture, and the expansion of trade soon followed. At the crossroads of the Mediterranean, the destined to become modern Syria was invaded by the rise of the great Southern empires emerging from Ur, Bablyon, Assur, Akkad and Sumer. From the East the Persians invaded and occupied the area and then the Mongols and the Arabs. From the North came the Hittites and from the West, the Greeks, the Romans and the Byzantines to be followed by the Crusading forces of the Kings of Europe. Nomadic tribes, known from the Christian Bible, such as the Canaanites and Arameans, arrived and all conquered the area for varying periods and settled. For 400 years Syria was absorbed into the Ottoman Empire and her people revolted and occupation was passed to French after World War I until Syria finally achieved her independence following World War II.

Nowhere else has the world witnessed this complex and unique meeting of states, empires and faiths as Syria. Who can imagine that the great Umayyad Mosque in Damascus was originally a temple to Jupiter? Later converted to a Christian basilica to John the Baptist, and in turn became what some consider the fourth-holiest place in Islam.

Salahdin, the enemy of King Richard the Lionheart, is buried there. And as history continues to leave its ever-changing imprint, in the last thirty years UNESCO has declared six sites in Syria– Syria has 6 such sites including the ancient City of Damascus and a further 12 on the list for Tentative consideration on its World Heritage List. It is from this this rich and diverse history, that Syria’s people have a reputation for tolerance and kindness. Yet now this history, and the peace built upon it, is threatened as never before, and the cultural heritage of all of us, these cross-roads of civilization are quite literally caught in the cross-hairs of war.

Religion has also indelibly marked Syria. This observer has walked through some of the area where Abraham, who influenced three monotheistic religions, pastured sheep at Aleppo and gave the city its Arabic name – Halab. Other visits to religious landmarks have included the old city of Damascus and Straight Street, where tradition holds that the conversion of Saul to Paul the Apostle occurred. Shortly before the events of March 2011, mass was still being held in the house he reputedly inhabited almost 2,000 years ago. The head of the John the Baptist, cousin of Jesus, is said to be enshrined in the Great Mosque in Damascus. The village Maloula is amongst the last places in the world where Aramaic, the language spoken at the time of Jesus, can still be heard – part of a living, breathing, spoken history. Khalid ibn al-Walid, companion to the Prophet Muhammad, founder of Islam, is buried in Homs in his namesake mosque. Muhammad’s successors left a legacy of beautiful mosques: several are now part of World Heritage sites.

When many of us ponder destruction of cultural heritage, we tend to think first of great monuments burning or blasted into rubble. Yet these monuments are about people, and it is with people that all discussions of heritage must begin and finish. Heritage is built by them. It is used and reused by them. Cultural Heritage is also about more than built structures, it is about the intangible beliefs and practices associated with them, and the values assigned to them, including those which may have no material manifestation at all. An analysis of the destruction of Syria’s cultural heritage necessarily encompasses many expressions.

This observer has experienced firsthand locations in Syria where heritage is sometimes at the forefront of the conflict, most notably in the Citadel and Al-Madina Souk in the heart of the Ancient City of Aleppo, a World Heritage site. Conflict in this area has been particularly heavy and damage extensive. The Citadel has taken on a symbolic status to those involved. To militarily control the Citadel is to own the heart of Aleppo, one of the oldest cities in the world.

Yet, ironic as it may seem at first brush, it is during conflict we often see the true, enduring power of heritage to heal and build peace. We have seen in Syria cases where after looters tried to break into the Museums or were caught doing illegal excavations, or trying to sell looted artifacts, that local citizens objected and in some cases risked their lives while confronting criminals and sometimes even blocking access to archeological sites. Such patriotic acts are not just about the protection of the past, but also about the present. We have seen in Syria that after a series of bombings at religious sites, Christians have protected Muslims so that their sisters and brothers can worship in peace, and Muslims in Syria do the same for Churches. These acts of solidarity in Syria, for Syria, are not only bringing the two communities closer together, but they resonates around the world, showing people that peace is possible, and that people of all faiths can work together and are even willing to risk their lives for one another for their shared past- for our shared past, and for each other’s beliefs.

But there is another view. Islamic jihadists have several times explained in great detail to this observer that they want to ruin the artifacts of non-Muslim civilizations, because doing so testifies to the truth of Islam. They always explain that the Qur’an suggests that ruins are a sign of Allah’s punishment of those who rejected his truth. Many were the Ways of Life that have passed away before you: travel through the earth, and see what the end was for those who rejected Truth. (Qur’an 3:137) This is one of the foundations of the Islamic idea that pre-Islamic civilizations, and non-Islamic civilizations, are all jahiliyya — the society of unbelievers, which is worthless. Scores of examples, including ISIS (Da’ish) destroying Assyrian statues and artifacts believed to be 3000 years old which they illegally excavated from the Tell Ajaja site. Museums at Apamea, Aleppo, and Raqqa experienced thefts, and the archaeological sites of Deir ez-Zor, Mari, Dura Europos, Halbia, Buseira, Tell Sheikh Hamad and Tell es-Sin have all been damaged by looters and as of February 2015, five out of six UNESCO world heritage sites in Syria have been damaged by war. Damage to sites like the ancient city of Aleppo and the ruins of Palmyra, Crac des Chevalier and so many others. Nowhere worse than the destruction of the minaret of al-Umayyad mosque in Aleppo in May of 2013.

Daunting as the restoration and repairing these sites may appear, it is a crucial process to foster reconciliation while protecting the heritage that unites all Syrians. People need to rebuild trust and for that to happen, they must have shared memories together. It was a Syrian PhD student, who teamed up with a Dutch archaeology professor, who began documenting the damage to Syrian heritage sites shortly after March of 2011. Soon the work expanded to become a peace-building initiative across Syrian civil society. One of the most remarkable social society NGO’s, now doing many amazing projects is the Spain based Heritage for Peace. (www.heritageforpeace.org ) HFP, like several other private politically neutral groups are working on restoring and repairing these sites as a way to foster reconciliation and it has been achieving much, if on a small scale so far.

The local restoration and repair of damaged sites where security conditions allow will foster reconciliation. As archeological sites are rebuilt so will trust be rebuilt. This observer has experienced this inspiring phenomenon among officials, student volunteers, Syrian army personnel and even rebels. Participants in Syria’s civil war and regular citizens trying to survive the carnage need a basis to rebuild trust and shared memories matter. Hugely. They unite Syrians, pro or anti regime, Syrian locals who refused to leave their home or the three million ex-pats who have fled and want to come home.

The NGO, Heritage for Peace (HFP), is one among others that has studied the destruction in Syria and that believes that heritage can serve as a key focus of dialogue among communities and ethnic and religious groups who have been pitted against one another over the past four years. As part of this process, heritage can become scaffolding for constructing peace in Syria by concentrating on protecting cultural heritage and mitigating damage by galvanizing the public, both local and international, to support heritage protection. Studies show that when citizens caught up in civil war, a movement focused on protecting common cultural heritage fosters compatibility between communities and hastens the postwar phase. Protesting our shared cultural heritage in Syria is showing signs for becoming a peace-building initiative across civil society.

And there is an important role for the global community. What needs to be done now to protect our cultural heritage in Syria which can also help end the conflict are the following measures which all of us can and must participate in. All people of good can work to promote the safeguarding and protection of our cultural heritage in Syria irrespective of religious or ethnic identity. To this end they hopefully will work for goals include the following:

*Document and preserve knowledge of the damages to cultural heritage in Syria during the present conflict while developing long-term policies to protect Syria’s heritage in conflict;

*Raise global awareness of the importance for Syria’s heritage of ending the fighting and stopping its destruction;

*Encourage the co-operation of national and international NGOs who are already working to protect Syria’s heritage and liaise with Syrian heritage workers operating during a current conflict; and the international heritage community;

*Raise global awareness of and campaign against the illicit trade in looted Syrian artifacts globally focusing on the neighboring countries Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan and expose those dealers, auction houses and museums who profit from theft of our global heritage in Syria;

*Promote understanding across diverse communities in Syria of the communal value of heritage and encourage foreign archeologists who have previously worked in Syria to provide information and assistance during and after the conflict;

*Promote the return of tourism to Syria and assist in preparations for reconstruction and preservation in the post-conflict phase and the return of international archeologists.

We can help stop the continuing destruction of our global heritage in Syria by this solidarity work. And it can function as a sort of fulcrum to bring an end to Syrian conflict by demonstrating that the people of Syria, custodians of the past of all of us, value this heritage over politics or bizarre religious applications which command that our heritage be destroyed.

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By Jim Garamone

The United States will continue to stand with nations around the world in sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine, President Barack Obama said during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel Monday.

The two leaders met at the White House, where Merkel briefed the president on her recent discussions on the situation in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Merkel and Obama will continue to seek a diplomatic resolution. “We are in absolute agreement that the 21st century cannot … have us stand idle and simply allow the borders of Europe to be redrawn at the barrel of the gun,” Obama said.

NATO Presence in Central, Eastern Europe

The United States and its NATO allies will continue building up alliance presence in Central and Eastern Europe, he said. The United States has rotated Army units through the Baltic Republics and Poland, sailed ships into the Baltic and Black seas and contributed aircraft to the Baltic Air Policing effort.

The president and Merkel discussed ongoing sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine.

“We agreed that sanctions on Russia need to remain fully in force until Russia complies fully with its obligations,” he said. “Even as we continue to work for a diplomatic solution, we are making it clear again today that if Russia continues on its current course … Russia’s isolation will only worsen both politically and economically.”

The two leaders also discussed ongoing coalition air operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant forces in Syria and Iraq. The United States and Germany “remain united in our determination to destroy” ISIL, Obama said.

He thanked Merkel for Germany’s assistance as part of coalition efforts against the terror group.

“In a significant milestone in its foreign policy, Germany has taken the important step of equipping Kurdish forces in Iraq, and Germany is preparing to lead the training mission of local forces in Irbil,” the president said.

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By Vijay Shankar*

After the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, it dawned upon President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev how catastrophically close to nuclear war they had blundered due to a misshapen military-led nuclear policy, a ludicrous nuclear doctrine that believed that a nuclear war could be fought controlled and won. Both leaders sought a change to the nuclear status-quo. As Khrushchev described it, “The two most powerful nations had been squared off against each other, each with its finger on the button.” Kennedy shared this distress, remarking at a White House meeting, “It is insane that two men, sitting on opposite sides of the world, should be able to decide to bring an end to civilisation.” He called for an end to the Cold War. “If we cannot end our differences,” he said, “at least we can help make the world a safe place for diversity.” In a series of private letters, Khrushchev and Kennedy opened a dialogue on banning nuclear testing. Thus began a progression of political moves and agreements that sought to dampen the risk of a nuclear war, contain the proliferation of nuclear weapons, do away with tactical nuclear weapons, limit strategic arms, cut arsenal size and indeed bring stability to nuclear relations. If at all there is a historical lesson to be learned then it is that nuclear risk reduction and stability begins with serious dialogue between leadership.

The Subcontinental Nightmare

If one were to hypothesise what petrifying form a nuclear nightmare may take, then it is a hair trigger, opaque nuclear arsenal that has embraced tactical use under decentralised military control steered by a doctrine seeped in ambiguity and guided by a military strategy that carouses and finds unity with non-State actors. It does not take a great deal of intellectual exertions to declare that this nightmare is upon the subcontinent. The need to bring about an awakening to the dangers of a nuclear conflagration is therefore pressing.

The effect of an enfeebled civilian leadership in Pakistan that is incapable of action to remove the military finger from the nuclear trigger; the active attendance and involvement of jihadists in swaying strategy; technology intrusions brought in by covert means; absence or at best ambiguity in doctrinal underpinnings that make Pakistan’s nuclear posture indecipherable and the alarming reality of ‘intention-to-use’, all in aggregate makes the status-quo untenable. The need for change in the manner in which we transact nuclear business is urgent. Strategic restraint predicated on failsafe controls, verification in a transparent environment, providing logic to size and nature of the arsenal and putting the brakes on the slide to nuclear capriciousness become imperatives to stabilising the deterrent relationship on the subcontinent.

But the catch is, how does one begin a meaningful nuclear dialogue with an emasculated Pakistani civilian establishment that does not control a military which in turn finds no reason to come to terms with a subordinate role? And as Cohen so succinctly put it, “Pakistan will continue to be a state in possession of a uniformed bureaucracy even when civilian governments are perched on the seat of power. Regardless of what may be desirable, the army will continue to set the limits on what is possible in Pakistan.” Add to this is the widely held belief within the army that terror as sanctioned by the Quran (I shall cast terror into the hearts of the infidels: Sura 12) is a legitimate instrument of Sstate power; the nature of the predicament becomes clear.

The Tri-Polar Tangle

A singular feature of the deterrent relationship in the region is its tri-polar character. As is well known today, it is the collusive nature of the Sino-Pak nuclear relationship which created and sustains its nuclear weapons programme. Therefore it is logical to conclude that there exists doctrinal links between the two which permits a duality in China’s nuclear policy; a declared No First Use can readily fall back on Pakistan’s developing First Use capability as far as India is concerned. Such links have made China blind to the dangers of nuclear proliferation as exemplified by the AQ Khan affair.

No scrutiny, of any consequence, of the regional nuclear situation can avoid looking at the internals of Pakistan. The country today represents a very dangerous condition that has been brought about by the precarious recipe that the establishment has brewed in nurturing fundamentalist and terrorist organisations as instruments of their military strategy. The extent to which their security establishment has been infiltrated is suggested by the attacks on PNS Mehran, Kamra air base, Karachi naval harbour and the assassination of the Punjab Governor; while the recent murderous assault on the Army School in Peshawar and the every day terror killings are more symptomatic of the free-run that these elements enjoy across the length and breadth of that country. Such a state of affairs does not inspire any confidence in the likelihood of the nuclear nightmare fading away or the robustness of their nuclear command and control structures to keep it in check.

Failure of the US Af-Pak Policy

As early as 2003 the US set out two major policy goals towards Pakistan, firstly holding it as an indispensable ally in its war in Afghanistan and secondly ending the proliferation of nuclear weapons in and from the region. However, over a decade later, both goals have failed dismally. There are confirmed reports that the Pak military has persistently deceived the US forces while elements within the former either lack the will to combat the insurgency or are actively involved with the jihadists. On the nuclear front, the rapid setting up of the unsafeguarded Khushab series (II, III and IV) nuclear reactors with Chinese collaboration having no other purpose than the production of weapon grade Plutonium, development of tactical nuclear weapons and the uninhibited growth of their arsenal do not in anyway enthuse belief in the US ability to exercise any stewardship over Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile. The inexplicable disappearance of key nuclear scientists who had recorded liaisons with al Qaeda remain alarming episodes that must cause anxieties. With US involvement in the Af-Pak greatly diminished and their focus on nuclear proliferation much sharper, the time is ripe for the US to clamp down on the maverick Pakistani nuclear posture.

Orientation of Sino-Pak Nuclear Collusion

The key to GHQ Rawalpindi’s compliance with rational norms of nuclear behaviour lies in Beijing. And the direction, in which Sino-Pak collusion is headed will to a large extent influence nuclear stability in the region. If the alliance was intended (as it now appears) to nurture a first use capability in order to keep subcontinental nuclear stability on the boil then the scope for achieving lasting stability is that much weakened. However, the current political situation in Pakistan presents a frightening possibility which is not in China’s interest to promote, more so, since Islamic terrorist elements have sworn to obtain nuclear weapons and the politico-ethnic situation in western China remains fragile. This in turn provides an opportunity to the Indian leadership to bring about change in the current ‘tri-polar tangle’.

A Blue Print for Regional Nuclear Stability

Against the reality of conventional war with its limited goals, moderated ends and the unlikelihood of it being outlawed in the foreseeable future, the separation of the conventional from the nuclear is a logical severance. Nuclear weapons are to deter and not for use; intent is the key; coherence and transparency are its basis. These remain the foundational principles that a nuclear weapon state must adhere to. However, given the politics of the region, historical animosities and the persisting dominance of the military in Pakistan, the dangers of adding nuclear malfeasance to military perfidy is more than just a possibility. Stability in this context would then suggest the importance of not only reinforcing assured retaliation to nuclear violence, but at the same time for India to bring about a consensus among both China and the US to compel Pakistan to harmonise with foundational rules of nuclear conduct. India’s current strategic relations with the US and Prime Minister Modi’s impending visit to China provides a timely opportunity to bring an end to the nightmare by swabbing the bleakness of subcontinental nuclear instability.

*Vijay Shankar
Former Commander-in-Chief, Strategic Forces Command of India

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