By Onur Sen*

The on-going debate on the violence against women in Turkey is heated again following the brutal killing of a young Turkish woman. This unfortunate event has triggered a nationwide social reaction in the form of massive public protests. Based on the accumulated knowledge about modernization, I would like to analyze the bigger picture on this social problem.

My analysis is mainly a socio-economic one. I explicitly exclude the rich elite (the so-called top 1%) from my analysis since their role is irrelevant in this problem although their role is explanatory in other social issues. I also exclude peasants since their interaction with city life is very limited. My focus here is mainly on two socio-economic groups sharing a common space in urbanized areas, which I shall call here “the commons” and “the moderns”.

To start with the latter, the moderns are those with an above-average income, relatively secure jobs, higher education and who travel to the modern world or at least read about the modern world. The commons are those who have below-average income, are ignorant and yet brave and confident in their uninformed decisions. The problems of violence against women (or violence in general), the sexual harassment and rape, and the “neighborhood pressure” can all be explained with the conflict between the commons and the moderns in Turkey.

This conflict is cross cutting other social cleavages. Division on ideological or partisan lines cannot explain the conflict since there are left or right wing people in both groups and people who voted for Party A or Party B. Religious conservativism also cannot explain it since there are people who practice their religion among the moderns just as there are people who are less religious or atheist among the commons. They cannot be divided based on gender either, since a woman in the commons can be as judgmental or prejudice against the moderns as her male counterpart. The core of the problem lies in the conflict between the moderns who internalize the norms of the modern city life and the commons who cannot keep up with the urban life.

When I look at the patterns in violence, harassment or other types of pressure on women in Turkey, I see them more often within the commons or a member of the commons against a member of the moderns. Rarely, such actions happen among the moderns, such as the Garipoglu case, which is an outlier that can be explained with individual mental problems or in other cases with drug addiction.

But the general pattern I mentioned above is happening repeatedly in one particular group that needs to be explained at the group level rather than the individual level. Ironically, although such actions typically take place among the commons, they are protested mostly by the moderns.

Many scholars of modernization base their arguments on class divisions and put emphasis on working middle class to bring about modernization and democratic values, which include promoting civil rights and respecting human rights, including women rights. If these values would triumph in society, it is the role of the modern middle class. Founding fathers, who tried to build democratic institutions in a time when the commons were majority in the society, had to base the foundation of the Republic on elites since a middle class with such values did not exist at the time. However, promoting such values with this top-down approach cannot be consolidated or sustained without the support of the masses. That is the reason why Mustafa Kemal, foreseeing the problems with the common class, declared the first mission of the Republic “to reach the level of the modern civilizations” or to summarize it with one word: modernization.

Based on my analysis, the solution to the violence against women or more generally women rights issues in Turkey lies on the triumph of the moderns over the commons. This can only be done through expansion of the moderns at the expense of the commons and by increasing their influence on social life in the cities. Only then, an urban Turkish woman can truly enjoy freedom in public areas. The increasing public awareness on the issue with public protests, triggered by the recent events against women, is a perfect example of how this social change can be brought about. They can be seen as a result of expanding and increasing influence of the moderns over the commons in modern life.

*Onur Sen is a Fulbright scholar at Department of Political Science, Georgia State University, Atlanta. His research interests include conflict management, international political economy, and democratization.

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INTERPOL Secretary General Jürgen Stock has highlighted the role effective information sharing and border management can play via the world police body’s global network against the global threat of foreign terrorist fighters.

Addressing a ministerial session during the White House Summit on Countering Violent Extremism, the INTERPOL Chief said that while the threat posed by foreign terrorist fighters had reached an ‘unprecedented’ scale, INTERPOL’s decade-long experience in this area showed that ‘secure, tailored information sharing is both possible and effective against this threat’.

“Information sharing and intelligence analysis represent strong tripwires at the frontlines against foreign terrorist fighters,” added Mr Stock.

With UN Security Council Resolution 2178 identifying INTERPOL as the ‘global law enforcement information sharing’ platform against foreign fighters, ministers heard that close to 40 countries have already provided information to INTERPOL on more than 1,500 suspected and confirmed fighters linked to Syria and Iraq.

INTERPOL has shared resulting analysis on demographics, travel routes and tactics to support interdiction, while individuals flagged by INTERPOL alerts known as Diffusions or Notices can also be tracked and, where requested, arrested for extradition.

Foreign fighters may seek to travel with revoked passports, stolen or lost passports, or simply their own valid travel documents. In the first two cases, INTERPOL’s Stolen and Lost Travel Document database can make this information available at the frontlines. In cases where the individual’s valid passport information has been shared, INTERPOL global tools will generate hit alarms.

The ministerial session heard that through its secure information sharing network, INTERPOL stands ready to work closely with all countries to further help strengthen their lines of defense and their systematic use of INTERPOL databases, and implement joint, pragmatic solutions against foreign terrorist fighters.

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By Amit Cowshish

The biennial Aero India 2015 is underway at Bengaluru (18 to 22 February) amidst media speculation about the fate of the MMRCA programme, hailed for long as the mother of all deals. Adding to the discomfiture, questions seem to have been raised within the ministry of defence (MoD) about the life cycle costing of the Basic Trainer Aircraft. The Avro-replacement programme is already in limbo, and the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) has been chugging along for far too long without even reaching the runway for a take-off.

Meanwhile, the squadron strength of the Indian Air Force seems to be in a state of free fall. The Standing Committee on Defence (16th Lok Sabha) has observed that the squadron strength could possibly plummet to 24 – half of what the air force wants – by 2024, unless the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) programme gets going by that time.

Following some unfortunate accidents involving the HAL-built Advanced Light Helicopter Dhruv, concerns are naturally being expressed about this platform, which has been exported to several countries including Peru, Myanmar, Turkey, Maldives, Mauritius and Nepal. The current contract with Ecuador is also reportedly in trouble, with that country mulling cancellation of the order for the last two choppers on account of issues related to cost, maintenance problems and poor after sale service. It will be a quite a setback if that happens.

One does not have to go any farther than this to drive home the point that there is no dearth of developments that could cast a shadow over the air show. Fortunately, that has not happened. Thanks to the Prime Minister’s presence at the inauguration and, by implication, continued focus on ‘Make-in-India’, the response of the industry has been overwhelmingly enthusiastic. More than 300 companies from nearly 70 countries are participating in the show, displaying more than 100 civilian and military aircraft.

Although heartening, all this razzmatazz hides the lack of clarity on what ‘Make-in-India’ means in relation to defence production and how is it different from systems and procedures currently being followed by the MoD. The enthusiasm of the Indian industry and the foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) – not to speak of the governments – needs to be channelled to show results on ground. Undoubtedly, it will take a while before the results start showing. But the question is whether the right course has been set for that to happen and for the companies to move towards making India a manufacturing hub. Not to put too fine a point on it, behind the hullabaloo everyone seems to be asking one question: what does Make-in-India in defence mean and how does one enter the Indian defence production market?

The Defence Production Policy of January 2011, the Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap (TPCR) of April 2013 and the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) of 2013 are the main documents which drive, or are supposed to drive, defence procurement and manufacture. But these documents, which pre-date Prime Minister Modi’s Make-in-India call, do not provide clear answers to that fundamental question since their focus is on meeting the requirement of the armed forces through outright purchase, ‘buy and make’ or ‘make’.

Outright purchase, whether from Indian companies or foreign original equipment manufacturers, is not what Make-in-India is all about, notwithstanding the fact that Buy (India) – now the most favoured category under DPP 2013 – also involves an element of indigenous production.

Buy and Make (Indian) involves manufacturing in India but it is only through transfer of technology and, in any case, the main players in this category of cases are Indian companies. Foreign companies play the lead role in Buy and Make cases but this is now the last but one category in the hierarchical ordering of the procurement categories, followed only by Buy (Global) which involves no manufacturing in India.

In ‘Make’ projects also, which come closest to what Make-in-India seems to be all about as it involves indigenous design and development of prototypes of complex high technology systems, the lead role has to be played by Indian companies, although, of necessity, they will have to tie up with foreign manufacturers. It needs recalling that in the past nine years or so since this category was introduced no project has taken off the ground so far.

There is, therefore, an urgent need to conceptualise a policy framework to let it be known to the foreign OEMs, as indeed to the Indian industry, what Make-in-India implies so far as defence production is concerned and how is the new concept different from the existing policy framework.

Considering that unlike other sectors that are consumer-driven, the defence sector is a monopsony, prospective manufacturers and sellers have to build their business strategies around the demand from the armed forces. The TPCR has not quite succeeded in galvanising the industry into undertaking manufacture of equipment and systems which they are not sure of being purchased by the ministry.

Companies, therefore, continue to enter the fray only when the request for proposal (RFP) is issued, although the more enterprising ones perhaps do take some advance action when request for information is issued as a prelude to the RFP.

This is surely not what Make-in-India is all about. The concept will have to be customised for the defence sector and procedures evolved to give effect to that concept. It is unlikely that foreign companies will find it irresistible to relocate their production units to India, even if there is drastic improvement in the eco-system, in the hope that at some point in the future the MoD will buy what they are making and that, in the meantime, they could sustain themselves through exports.

Most importantly, there has to be a drastic change in the way the MoD engages with the industry – both Indian and foreign. An institutional mechanism is required for ensuring continuous dialogue and finding solutions to the issues that will inevitably get thrown up when the new Make-in-India policy framework is put in place along with a customised set of procedures. The time seems to be running out.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/GivingAeroIndia2015aMakeinIndiaTouch_acowshish_180215.html

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By James K. Jackson*

In what has been characterized as one of the most significant currency decisions in decades, on January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed without any public warning the cap it had maintained on the foreign exchange value of the Swiss franc relative to the euro.

The move surprised international currency traders, who acted swiftly by acquiring francs, sharply increasing the value of the franc against the dollar and the euro, as indicated in Figure 1.

Following the announcement, the Swiss stock market dropped by more than 13% and the franc rose by more than 30% against the euro, before settling to a one day appreciation of about 15%. The SNB also set the official interest rate at negative 0.75% to discourage capital inflows and relieve pressure on the franc.

By January 16, 2015, the Swiss franc had increased in value from 1.2 francs per euro to par value (one Swiss franc per one euro), but has depreciated slightly since. Similarly, the Swiss franc appreciated against the dollar, and the dollar appreciated against the euro, rising from nearly $1.19 per euro on January 15, 2015, to about $1.13 per euro by the end of the month. In response, the SNB intervened in the foreign exchange markets by spending nearly $65 billion to acquire euro- denominated assets to blunt the appreciation of the franc.

According to a triennial survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the franc is the sixth most heavily traded currency in global foreign exchange markets.

According to the SNB, it removed the franc/euro cap, which it had maintained since September 2011, because it had achieved its stated policy goal of stabilizing the currency’s exchange rate. The cap was supported by the SNB, which had printed large amounts of francs to maintain the cap. In turn, the SNB acquired an estimated $556 billion in euro-denominated assets to support the franc/euro cap, which sharply increased the bank’s balance sheet to an amount equivalent to 85% of Swiss national GDP.

In large part, these measures were directed at discouraging currency traders from acquiring francs as a safe haven currency and, thereby, appreciating the value of the franc, during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010-2011. Recently, the SNB reportedly had grown concerned over deflationary pressures in Switzerland and Europe and the potential cost of maintaining the cap while the European Central Bank proceeded with its anticipated bond-buying program, which likely would have placed additional upward pressure on the value of the franc.

Swiss exporters supported the SNB’s efforts to hold down the franc’s exchange value to make their goods more competitive in international markets; exports of goods and services are equivalent to more than 70% of Swiss gross domestic product (GDP). The SNB may also have been concerned over the prospect of a public referendum, a unique feature of the Swiss system, which would have curtailed the ability of the SNB to intervene in foreign exchange markets to maintain the cap on the franc’s value.

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty, the Hungarian forint, Romanian leu, Bulgarian lev, and the Czech koruna all depreciated relative to the franc following the SNB’s actions. Currency traders and speculators also have looked at such countries as Denmark that have maintained a cap on their currencies similar to that of Switzerland. The Danish National Bank responded to the SNB’s actions by reducing its official interest rates four times in successive moves to negative rates similar to those of Switzerland and spent $15 billion in currency intervention to discourage capital inflows and maintain the krone’s peg to the euro. Denmark is one of nine countries that are voluntary members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism II that acts to manage fluctuations in rates between the euro and other EU currencies.

Consumers and businesses in various European countries have been affected by the SNB’s actions, because they borrowed large amounts of Swiss francs due to low interest rates and the perceived stability of the currency. The abrupt appreciation of the franc, however, sharply raises the cost of servicing loans made in Swiss francs, which could precipitate a round of defaults on mortgages in Poland and Hungary and business loans. In Poland, 46% of recent home loans have been in Swiss francs. The move also caused a number of currency and currency derivative traders in Europe to declare bankruptcy or experience large losses as a result of highly leveraged positions. On January 19, 2015, Alpari Ltd., a major UK currency trading firm, filed for insolvency as a result of currency-related losses; administrators were appointed under the UK’s Special Administrative Regime to resolve the distressed financial firm.

In the United States, the abrupt movement in the value of the Swiss franc left numerous currency traders with large losses. FXCM Inc., the largest U.S. retail currency broker with more than 230,000 on- line day traders, many of them outside the United States, promoted highly leveraged positions. The appreciation of the franc left the firm with a shortfall of more than $225 million as many of its clients experienced losses that exceeded the value of their margin accounts, some by more than 200 times.

Rules set by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the National Futures Association (NFA) permit traders to have leverage ratios that exceed 50 times the value of their margin accounts. FXCM was rescued by Leucadia National Corp., which arranged for a $300 million loan to help FXCM meet its regulatory capital requirements and to conduct normal business activities. These actions prompted the NFA to increase margin requirements on three currencies and a CFTC Commissioner to call for “enhancing” regulation of retail foreign exchange dealers to make them “at least as strong as the regulations on the rest of the derivatives industry.” Such actions might require congressional action, since Congress oversees the CFTC.

About the author:
*James K. Jackson, Specialist in International Trade and Finance

Source:
This article was published by the Congressional Research Service as a CRS Insights (PDF).

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Engineers at Oregon State University have completed one of the most precise evaluations yet done about the impact of a major tsunami event on the Columbia River, what forces are most important in controlling water flow and what areas might be inundated.

They found, in general, that tidal stages are far more important than river flow in determining the impact of a tsunami; that it would have its greatest effect at the highest tides of the year; and that a tsunami would be largely dissipated within about 50 miles of the river’s mouth, near Longview, Wash.

Any water level increases caused by a tsunami would be so slight as to be almost immeasurable around the Portland metropolitan area or Bonneville Dam, the study showed. But water could rise as much as 13 feet just inside the mouth of the Columbia River, and almost 7 feet within a few miles of Astoria.

“There have been previous models of Columbia River run-up as a result of a tsunami, but they had less resolution than this work,” said David Hill, an associate professor of civil engineering in the OSU College of Engineering. “We carefully considered the complex hydrodynamics, subsidence of grounds that a tsunami might cause, and the impacts during different scenarios.”

The impact of tsunamis on rivers is difficult to predict, researchers say, because many variables are involved that can either dampen or magnify their effect. Such factors can include the width and shape of river mouths, bays, river flow, tidal effects, and other forces.

But the major tsunami in Japan in 2011, which was caused by geologic forces similar to those facing the Pacific Northwest, also included significant inland reach and damage on local rivers. As a result, researchers are paying increased attention to the risks facing residents along such rivers.

The OSU research has been published in the Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, by Hill and OSU graduate student Kirk Kalmbacher. It’s based on a major earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone and a resulting tsunami, with simulations done at different rivers flows; and high, low, flood and ebb tides.

Of some interest is that the lowest elevation of a tsunami wave generally occurs at a high tide, but its overall flooding impact is the greatest because the tide levels are already so high. Because of complex hydrodynamic interactions, the study also found that only on a flood tide would water actually wash up and over the southern spit of the Columbia River mouth, with some local flooding based on that.

Tides, overall, had much more impact on the reach of a tsunami than did the amount of water flowing in the river.

“We were a little surprised that the river’s water flow didn’t really matter that much,” Hill said. “The maximum reach of a tsunami on the Columbia will be based on the tidal level at the time, and of course the magnitude of the earthquake causing the event.”

Based on a maximum 9.0 magnitude earthquake and associated tsunami, at the highest tide of the year, the research concluded:

• Just offshore, the tsunami would raise water levels about 11.5 to 13 feet.

• Just inside the mouth of the Columbia River, the water would rise about 13 feet.

• At river mile 6, approaching Hammond, Ore., the river would rise about 10 feet.

• At river mile 25, near Welch Island, the river would rise about 1.6 feet.

• At river mile 50, near Longview, Wash., there would be no measurable rise in the river.

Maps have been developed as a result of this research that make more precise estimates of the areas which might face tsunami-induced flooding. They should aid land owners and land use planners, Hill said, in making improved preparations for an event that researchers now say is inevitable in the region’s future. Experts believe this region faces subduction zone earthquakes every 300-600 years, and the last one occurred in January, 1700.

There are some noted differences in the projections on these newer maps and older ones, Hill said.

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By Ana Lovakovic

In an effort to reinvigorate Bosnia and Herzegovina’s stalled EU accession discussions, the EU Foreign Affairs Council recently lent its support to a British-German initiative focused on helping BiH meet the requirements for membership in the bloc.

The Council called upon the nation’s political leadership to commit itself in writing to carrying out reforms in the framework of the EU accession process.

Earlier this month, the members of the BiH presidency and leaders of political parties signed a consolidated statement after meeting with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, who initiated the adoption of this statement and the EU’s new approach toward BiH.

The renewed approach was approved without changing any EU accession conditions, including the European Court of Human Rights’ ruling in the Sejdic-Finci case. The court ruled in December 2009 that requiring citizens to identify themselves as Bosniak, Serb or Croat in order to be elected to the House of Peoples or the presidency is a violation of the European Convention on Human Rights. BiH has not yet changed its laws accordingly.

The EU’s new initiative places the focus on reforms and issues of direct concern to citizens. The reform agenda should be developed and implemented in consultation with civil society, and should foremost address socio-economic reforms, including the EU’s Compact for Growth and Jobs, rule of law and good governance.

The overall objective is to establish functionality and efficiency at all levels of government and allow BiH to prepare itself for future EU membership. The text also contains a commitment to work in consultation with the EU to create an initial agenda for reforms, in line with the EU acquis.

The EU Foreign Affairs Council said the recent visit to BiH by the bloc’s High Representative of Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini and Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn was a successful step toward revitalising the reform process. The Council asked Mogherini and Hahn to continue engaging with the leadership in BiH to secure a written commitment to undertake reforms in the framework of the EU accession process.

Mogherini said these developments represent the chance for BiH to make a new start in its accession bid.

“We are ready to engage and to reciprocate in the moment when this commitment will be adopted by the parliament, and we really believe — with a very, I have to say, positive mood and discussion we had with all the ministers — that this could be a turning point in the way of Bosnia and Herzegovina toward the European Union. We need to make sure that together we move toward that direction consistently and not only in words,” she said.

Hahn discussed the sequence of activities that BiH must implement.

“It should be noted that none of the existing conditions are left out. I think that they can be implemented step by step. Therefore, the fulfilment of certain conditions is associated with further financial support. This is a considerable amount for BiH set aside annually. We’re talking about more than 800 million euros,” Hahn said.

The EU Delegation to BiH and the Office of the Special Representative of the Union expressed satisfaction with the country’s commitment to a renewed approach.

Renzo Daviddi, the charge d’affaires of the EU Delegation to BiH, said the overall objective is the commitment to establish functionality and efficiency at all levels of government and to allow BiH to prepare itself for future EU membership.

“The commitment to make progress, at a later stage, on reforms in order to enhance functionality and effectiveness of the different levels of governance is required as well. Once this commitment is delivered and judged satisfactory, the EU will decide on the entry into force of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement,” Daviddi said.

After meeting with BiH party leaders, Hammond said the British-German initiative is perhaps the best offer ever made by the EU to BiH.

“The joint statement on the commitment of political leaders to get the required reforms is the first step on a long and difficult road to integration, and its adoption [by BiH’s parliament] would be a strong signal to the EU that BiH is part of the movement in the region toward the EU,” Hammond said.

Steinmeier said the EU initiative is a new beginning for BiH in the process of integration, which Brussels wants.

“This represents a new window for BiH which will not be open forever, and this is a time of opportunity that BiH should take advantage of. We have not forgotten the BiH after the last general elections. The citizens of BiH deserve a better future. All political leaders in BiH were unique in the position that they want to continue through the EU integration process and that a different path does not exist,” Steinmeier said, adding that BiH and the EU are establishing co-ordination mechanisms in order to jointly negotiate concrete reform proposals.

Semsudin Mehmedovic, chairman of the BiH House of Representatives said the new plan is not a change of criteria, but a reordering.

“I think the British-German initiatives turned things in the right direction in BiH, which is why I believe the political parties agree,” Mehmedovic told SETimes.

The post EU Foreign Ministers Create New Roadmap For Bosnia And Herzegovina appeared first on Eurasia Review.

It’s not just here on Earth that overcast weather occurs – spacecraft and ground-based telescopes have spotted numerous clouds of ice crystals hovering over Mars.

Two particularly unusual plumes, which occurred in March and April 2012, have caught the attention of scientists, and may reveal secrets about the state of the Martian atmosphere. They are the subject of a new study recently published in Nature and led by astronomer Agustín Sánchez-Lavega of the University of the Basque Country in Bilbao, Spain.

The study focuses on two bright, extremely high-altitude plumes at the Martian terminator (the day–night boundary) which were spotted by intrigued amateur astronomers in spring 2012. The clouds were estimated to be located 200 to 250 kilometers or more above Mars’s surface. Extending about 500 to 1 000 kilometers in both the north–south and east–west directions, they lasted for about 10 days, changing their structure from day to day.

According to Nature, the plumes’ sheer height is what is difficult to explain. In order to try to discover its significance, Sánchez-Lavega’s team coordinated observations from amateur astronomers, and searched imagery from Mars spacecraft. They used photometric measurements to explore two possible scenarios and investigate their nature. One explanation is that the plumes were formed by shards of frozen carbon dioxide or water vapor. Another is that the plume was an aurora linked to a known region on the surface where there is a large anomaly in the crustal magnetic field. This aurora would be 1 000 times brighter than an aurora on Earth.

There are no easy answers, however, and the research team emphasizes in the abstract that both of the proposed explanations defy our current understanding of Mars’ upper atmosphere.

The team are still working to resolve the mystery, and they may have some help from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) in the coming years. The ESA notes that further insights should be possible following the arrival of ESA’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter at the Red Planet, scheduled for launch in 2016. Meanwhile, Nature suggests that NASA’s MAVEN spacecraft which is currently orbiting Mars, would be able to see a plume if it happened to be looking ‘at the right place at the right time’ – a situation which unfortunately has not yet occurred.

Source: CORDIS

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Just after Bill O’Reilly excoriated NBC’s Brian Williams for fabricating his experiences during the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, O’Reilly is now on the defensive himself after a publication questioned his claims of reporting during the Falklands war.

The left-leaning US magazine, Mother Jones, has bomb shelled Fox News by publishing an article that claims talk-show host Bill O’Reilly’s heroic tales of war reporting “don’t withstand scrutiny—even claiming he acted heroically in a war zone that he apparently never set foot in.”

The article, entitled “Bill O’Reilly Has His Own Brian Williams Problem,” went on to produce a list of seemingly self-incriminating quotes from the notoriously outspoken Fox host, who has boasted on more than one occasion that he “experienced combat” during the 1982 conflict between England and Argentina.

In April 2013, O’Reilly shared with viewers this harrowing tale of his exploits in the Falklands war:

“I was in a situation one time, in a war zone in Argentina, in the Falklands, where my photographer got run down and then hit his head and was bleeding from the ear on the concrete. And the army was chasing us. I had to make a decision. And I dragged him off, you know, but at the same time, I’m looking around and trying to do my job, but I figure I had to get this guy out of there because that was more important.”

In his 2001 book, The No Spin Zone: Confrontations with the Powerful and Famous in America, which details his stint as a CBS News reporter, O’Reilly writes: “You know that I am not easily shocked. I’ve reported on the ground in active war zones from El Salvador to the Falklands.”

However, as MJ points out, nowhere in the book does O’Reilly mention experiencing any combat during the Falklands war. In fact, he reportedly arrived in Buenos Aires shortly before the Argentine forces surrendered to the British, ending the 10-week war over control of the islands about 1,200 miles south of Buenos Aires. And judging by one highly respected CBS journalist, nobody from the news channel made landfall on the Falklands.

“Nobody from CBS got to the Falklands,” according to veteran CBS reporter Bob Schieffer. “For us, you were a thousand miles from where the fighting was. So we had some great meals.”

The magazine quoted Robert Fox, one of the few British reporters embedded with the British troops: “We were, in all, a party of about 32-34 accredited journalists, photographers, television crew members. We were all white, male, and British. There was no embedded reporter from Europe, the Commonwealth or the US (though they tried hard enough), let alone from Latin America.”

Although O’Reilly reportedly didn’t respond to calls for comment from Mother Jones, longtime CBS producer Susan Zirinsky did.

“Nobody got to the war zone during the Falklands war,” Zirinsky, who helped manage CBS coverage of the war from Buenos Aires, told MJ. She said the military junta prevented US reporters from reaching the islands: “You weren’t allowed on by the Argentinians. No CBS person got there.”

As for O’Reilly, Zirinsky says she doesn’t remember what he was doing in Argentina at the time.

Bill O’Reilly has disputed MJ’s claims, telling the Times that the story was “a bunch of garbage.” He denied ever saying he was on the Falkland Islands during the war.

“Everything I’ve said about my career is 100 percent accurate,” he said. “I never said I was on the Falkland Islands. I said I covered the Falklands war, which we all did from Argentina and Uruguay, and I was in both places. There was a combat situation when the Argentines surrendered and thousands of people stormed the president’s palace. The dictator [Leopoldo] Galtieri was trying to kill him. Argentine troops fired into the crowd. I was right in the middle of it.”

But MJ won’t even let O’Reilly claim that magical moment of “major violence up close.”

“O’Reilly’s account of the protest in Buenos Aires is at odds with news reports from the time—including the report from his own bureau,” MJ wrote. “The CBS Evening News that night aired about a minute of video of the protest, apparently including some of the footage that O’Reilly and his camera team had obtained….The only act of violence in the spot was a man throwing a punch against the car of a Canadian news crew.”

MJ pulls no punches in its effort to expose O’Reilly’s claims of ‘combat reporting’ as fraudulent.

“The protest in Buenos Aires was not combat. Nor was it part of the Falklands war. It happened more than a thousand miles from the war—after the fighting was over. Yet O’Reilly has referred to his work in Argentina—and his rescue of his cameraman—as occurring in a “war zone.”

The military machismo behind O’Reilly’s claims could be overlooked if not for one thing: He often cites his combat credentials in order to refute the arguments of people who do not agree with his views on foreign policy, which have a tendency to support military adventures.

For instance, on his television show in 1999, O’Reilly responded to comments from a retired Air Force colonel who criticized O’Reilly for supporting NATO military action in Kosovo, by dragging up his Falklands war exploits: “Hey, Colonel, did you ever have a hostile point an M-16 at your head from 10 yards away? That happened to me while I was covering the Falklands war.”

The post Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly’s Falklands War Stories Questioned appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Visual media serves an impetus to violence in South Africa, with people constantly exposed to violent video games, news, movies and YouTube clips.

By Tendaishe Tlou*

The consequences of South Africa’s violence are both stark and unsettling. Since 1994 when the country attained independence, the government has struggled with a spate of armed robberies and murders. The shooting of Lucky Dube and, most recently, Senzo Meyiwa left everyone perplexed and heartbroken. This surge in criminal activities has led the international community to write-off South Africa, labeling its citizens as people with a violent history destined for a violent future. At one point or another, the media is full of reports of murder or armed robbery. Indeed, visual media serves an impetus to violence in South Africa, with people constantly exposed to violent video games, news, movies and YouTube clips.

Cultivation theory was derived from several large -scale research projects by Professor George Gerbner in the 1960s “concerned with the effects of television programming (particularly violent programming) on the attitudes and behaviors of the American public” (Miller, 2005:281). He assumed that reality is developed from what people watch on TV. Cultivation theory assumes that over time, particular symbols, images, messages, meanings from television messages become dominant and are absorbed as the truth. Television has long term effects which are small, gradual, indirect but cumulative and significant. According to cultivation theory, the frequency of viewing also has a bearing on the subsequent influences. For instance, heavy viewing of television is seen as ‘cultivating’ attitudes which are more consistent with the world of television programs. This paper will endeavor to qualify or disqualify these assumptions.

South Africans are no strangers to organised violence and criminality. In its twenty years of freedom, South Africa is a country where visual media continuously, deliberately or undeliberately, inculcates a culture of violence. It is not surprising that the significant number of reports of violent crime from human rights groups, the civil society and the police itself has prompted pervasive condemnation locally and internationally.

Television is a very powerful, most popular and ubiquitous medium of expression. It has both ideological and hegemonic functions which tend to dominate the life styles of its viewers, especially youths who are vulnerable to its attractively packaged messages (Tomlison, 1991). It is no doubt that “people instinctively imitate actions and model the behaviour they observe; however they do not have the intellect or maturity to determine whether the action is appropriate or good” (Larsen, 2001:1).

Various South African movies – ranging from Jerusalem, How to Steal 10 million and the recent Number-Number – have impacted strongly on consolidating the violent culture of youth by deliberately justifying violence through images of crime. It automatically becomes ‘stylish’ to flaunt a gun around because this is what is portrayed on mass media. Television messages have strong influences on individual and group behaviors, and views on issues of peace and human security.Therefore youth can be defined as a period of psychological and social turmoil-transition between childhood to adulthood which renders them vulnerable to television influences (Hines, 1999). This implies that television ideas of ‘reality’ have come to dominate the views and lifestyles of youth.

Many scholars such as Platt (1983), Orwell (1986) and Hechtman (2003) assert that television has authority over young people’s decisions. They assert that youths just accept what the television tells them without demur. Keyes (2000) raised fears about the negative influences that the media have on youth culture. “Youths are particularly vulnerable to outside influence from their television sets because their values and ideas have not yet fully developed” (ibid).

In South Africa, like elsewhere in the developing world, television is conceived as the major culprit in the marketing of alien cultures which have dominated local knowledge systems (Malleus, 2001). That is why coloureds in Cape Town dub their cliques ‘America’, because they want to be viewed in the same way as American gangsters characterized by gang violence. Parents are apparently preventing their children from going to school in Parkwood, fearing that their children will be caught-up in gang violence. The television is one of the most powerful tools that shape attitudes, behaviours and structures. If television is being used to entrench violence, then it is essential that the government and actors collaborate to broadcast movies with a strong orientation towards peace and human security.

Although video games are not relatively popular compared to TV, they are increasingly shaping the attitudes and behaviors of criminals in South Africa. As video games are a newer medium, there is less research on their impact. Video games bring other cultures in their real form and as a result have managed to connect its audiences, especially youths. For example, Play Station brings with it a training kit and context specific package that trains the user to use guns and bombs in war zones such as Afghanistan or Iraq. Gentile and Anderson (2003) indicate it is likely that violent video games may have even stronger effects on youth aggression because the games are highly-engaging and interactive, they reward violent behavior and the player repeats these behaviors over and over as they play.

Video games will be pivotal in socializing young people through engagement and interaction. A content analysis by the Children Research Organization (2001) shows that a majority of video games include violence, about half of which would result in serious injuries or death in the ‘real’ world. Since this research was done in 2001, the violence that has engulfed South Africa can in part be attributed to video games. Playing a lot of violent video games is related to having more aggressive thoughts, feelings and behaviors (Anderson & Bushman, 2001). Violence begins in the mind; hence direct violence is an indication that it has been preconceived and the portents of aggression were already present. Furthermore, playing violent games is also related to youths being less willing to be caring and helpful towards their peers. Research has shown that these effects happen just as much for non-aggressive youth, and those who spend more time on violent video games tend to become desensitized and slow to react to violence. This surge in youths participating in criminal activities must inform the government to review their approach to crime prevention and visual media is pivotal in this endeavor.

Another phenomenon gathering momentum exponentially is social networking. One of the fastest and easiest ways of communicating and perpetuating violence in South Africa is through social networks. In recent months, there have been reports that some South Africans are engaging in social bullying through these platforms. Violent attacks and xenophobia have been communicated over these platforms at the expense of peace and security. Armed robberies are also planned through social networks and messages conveyed through Twitter, Facebook and Watsapp because they uphold privacy. Videos are also uploaded onto these sites, meaning that people can share an experience. For example, in 2009 xenophobic attacks spread to other parts of South Africa through social networks by uploading videos which were ought to be case studies.

Violent movies, video games and social networks have contributed to the passivity of some South African citizens towards violence. In some worst cases, it was reported that some people actually cheered a man who wanted to commit suicide by jumping off a building, which he eventually did in Newtown in late 2014. This numbness can be attributed to visual media which desensitizes people to become reactive to violence. The media socializes people to normalize things that are not normal which is increasingly becoming a concern in South Africa. Hence, playing violent games, watching vicious movies and education through social networks is related to youths being less willing to be caring and helpful towards their peers, especially during violent confrontations, but rather preferring to participate in the violence so as to be part of the group.

*Tendaishe Tlou is a freelance researcher and writer specialising in human rights, environmental security, peace and governance issues. He holds a BSc (Honours) Degree in Peace and Governance with Bindura University of Science Education and a Post-graduate Certificate in Applied Conflict Transformation. He works with various NGOs and Government Ministries in Zimbabwe and South Africa. However, these are his personal views; no authors, NGOs, Universities or any other Institution must be held accountable for the arguments in this article.

References

• Anderson, C. A. & Bushman, B. J. (2001). Effects of violent games on Aggressive behavior, Aggressive cognition, Aggressive affect, Physiological arousal, and Pro-social behavior: A Meta-analytic review of the Scientific literature. Psychological Science, Vol. 12, pp. 353-359.
• Children Now (2001) Fair play? Violence, Gender and Race in Video games, Los Angeles, CA: Children Now.
• Gentile, D. A. & Anderson, C. A. (2003),Violent video games: The newest media violence hazard. In D. A. Gentile (Ed.), Media violence and children. Westport, CT, Praeger Publishing.
• Hechtman,H.(2003),Media’s Influence on the Youth.Available at: http://teammag.free.fr/Influence.html,Date accessed: 13/01/15.
• Hines, T. 1999. The Rise and Fall of the American Teenager,Bard,New York.
• Lederach (1995)
• Larsen, D. (2001), Media Violence and the Captive Audience.
• Malleus, R. (2001),Media and Culture,Harare,Zimbabwe Open University
• Miller, K. (2005),Communications Theories: Perspectives, Processes, and Contexts, New York, McGraw-Hill.
• Orwell,G. (1986),Media Imperialism, Middlesex, Penguin Books Ltd.
• Platt, J. (1983),Beliefs that can Link Man Together in Human Needs, New Societies, Supportive Technologies, Rome,IRADES.
• Tomlison, J. (1991),Cultural Imperialism: A Critical Introduction, London, Pinter Publishers Limited.

The post Visual Media As Impetus To Youth Violence In South Africa – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Three schoolgirls have fled the UK in a suspected bid to travel to Syria and join ISIS (Daesh).

Shamima Begum, 15, Kadiza Sultana, 16, and an un-named 15-year-old, all from east London, flew to Istanbul, Turkey, from Gatwick airport on Tuesday without leaving any messages behind for family or friends.

Scotland Yard detectives urgently appealed for information about the missing girls, who all go to the Bethnal Green Academy school and were described as ‘straight-A students’.

Commander Richard Walton, head of the Metropolitan Police’s counter terror command, said the runaways are good friends with another 15-year-old girl who fled to Syria in December.

He said the force was becoming ‘increasing concerned’ about a growing trend of young girls showing an interest or intent in joining IS, an organisation now notorious for its barbaric treatment of hostages and oppression of women.

But Mr Walton added the teenagers’ families were ‘devastated’ but there was a ‘good chance’ the girls were still in Turkey.

The youngsters, who police fear may be heading to join terror group Islamic State, are all pupils at the same school and are close friends, police said.

They were last seen at their homes on Tuesday morning when they gave their families ‘plausible reasons’ to be out for the day. They were reported missing later that day and on Wednesday morning.

The girls met at Gatwick where they got on a Turkish Airlines flight which landed in Turkey on Tuesday evening.

Mr Walton said: ‘We are extremely concerned for the safety of these young girls and would urge anyone with information to come forward and speak to police. Our priority is the safe return of these girls to their families.

‘We are reaching out to the girls using the Turkish media and social media in the hope that Shamima, Kadiza and their friend hear our messages, hear our concerns for their safety and have the courage to return now, back to their families who are so worried about them.’

Shamima is possibly travelling under the name of Aklima Begum, 17, police said. The third girl is not being named at the request of her family.

Mr Walton added: ‘We are concerned about the numbers of girls and young women who have or are intending to travel to the part of Syria that is controlled by the terrorist group calling themselves Islamic State.

‘It is an extremely dangerous place and we have seen reports of what life is like for them and how restricted their lives become.

‘It is not uncommon for girls or women to be prevented from being allowed out of their houses or if allowed out, only when accompanied by a guardian.

‘The choice of returning home from Syria is often taken away from those under the control of Islamic State, leaving their families in the UK devastated and with very few options to secure their safe return.

‘If we are able to locate these girls whilst they are still in Turkey, we have a good possibility of being able to bring them home to their families.’

Police said Shamima was 5ft 7in tall, and wearing black thick rimmed glasses, a black hijab, light brown and black leopard print scarf, dark red jumper, black trousers and jacket, carrying a dark blue cylindrical shape holdall with white straps.

Kadiza is 5ft 6in tall, of slim build and wearing black-rimmed glasses, a long black jacket with a hood, grey striped scarf, grey jumper, dark red trousers, carrying a black holdall.

Both are British nationals, speak English with London accents and also speak Bengali.

The third girl is 5ft 6in, of slim build, wearing black thick rimmed glasses, black head scarf, long dark green jacket with fur lined hood, light yellow long sleeved top, black trousers, white trainers carrying a black Nike holdall. She speaks English.

Scotland Yard stressed the appeal was not about ‘criminalising people, it is about preventing tragedies by offering support to the young and vulnerable’.

The appeal comes after it was claimed that Muslim extremists are offering teenage girls in the UK money to marry Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq.

ISIS supporters are believed to be offering cash incentives to encourage schoolgirls to travel to the group’s de facto capital Raqqa and marry fighters.

It was reported in December that ISIS channels money for travel expenses through international money wire systems, enabling the group’s UK cell to offer significant sums of cash to disenfranchised teenagers.

Original article

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“There’s no city left. It’s destroyed.” — Anonymous Ukrainian soldier following the battle of Debaltsevo

In less than a year, the United States has toppled the democratically-elected government of Ukraine, installed a Washington-backed stooge in Kiev, launched a bloody and costly war of annihilation on Russian-speaking people in the East, thrust the economy into a downward death spiral, and reduced the nation to an anarchic, failed state destined to endure a vicious fratricidal civil war for as far as the eye can see.

Last week, Washington suffered its greatest military defeat in more than a decade when Ukraine’s US-backed army was soundly routed in the major railway hub of Debaltsevo. Roughly, 8,000 Ukrainian regulars along with untold numbers of tanks and armored units were surrounded in what-came-to-be-known-as “the cauldron.”  The army of the Donetsk Peoples Republic led by DPR commander  Alexander Zakharchenko, encircled the invading army and gradually tightened the cordon, eventually killing or capturing most of the troops within the pocket. The Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered major casualties ranging between  3,000 to 3,500 while a vast amount of lethal military hardware was left behind.

According to Zakharchenko, “The amount of equipment Ukrainian units have lost here is beyond description.”

Additionally, the US-backed proxy-army saw many of its crack troops and top-notch units destroyed in the fighting leaving Kiev unable to continue the war without assistance from allies in the US or Europe.  The full impact of the defeat will not be known until angry troops returning from the front amass on the streets of the Capital and demand Petro Poroshenko’s resignation. The Ukrainian President is responsible for the massacre at Debaltsevo.  He was fully aware that his army faced encirclement but ordered them to remain in order to satisfy powerful right-wing elements in his government. The disaster is even more terrible due to the fact that it was entirely avoidable and achieved no strategic purpose at all. Extreme hubris frequently impacts outcomes on the battlefield. This was the case at Debaltsevo.

The debacle ensures that the bumbling president’s days are numbered. It’s nearly certain that he will either be replaced or hanged sometime in weeks ahead. He has already flown his family to safety out of the country, and there’s growing speculation that both Washington and the far-right nationalists who occupy the Security Services will insist on his removal. That paves the way for a second Ukrainian coup in less than a year, a grim reminder of the tragic failings of US policy in Ukraine. Check out this blurb from a post at the Vineyard of the Saker:

“Looks like the Nazi death squads are on the march again, this time they are looking at Kiev.  Thirteen death-squad (aka “volunteer battalion”) leaders have now declared that they are forming their own military command under the command of the notorious Semen Semenchenko. Officially, they are not in any way opposed to the current regime, so said Semenchenko, but in reality their rank and file members are pretty clear about what they want to do: organize a third Maidan and toss out Poroshenko.

What makes these 21st century version of the SA so dangerous for Poroshenko it that he, unlike Hitler, does not have a 21st century version of the SS to eliminate them all overnight.  In fact, according to many reports the entire southern part of the rump-Ukraine is now “Kolomoiski-land” fully under the control of the oligarch who finances these death-squads.  Add to this the fact that most of the Rada is composed of the very same battalion commanders and assorted Nazi freaks, and you will why Poroshenko is now very much in danger……

The sad reality is that there is simply nobody in the Ukraine capable of disarming these so-called “volunteer battalions”.  There are now thousands of uniformed Nazi freaks roaming around with guns who can now impose their law of the jungle on everybody.  It sure looks like the future of Banderastan will be something like a mix of Somalia and Mad Max – a failed state, a comprehensively destroyed economy, a collapsed social order and the law of armed gangs of thugs.” (The Vineyard of the Saker)

If Poroshenko is doomed to be the scapegoat in the Debaltsevo cock-up, it’s only because he followed the foolhardy advice of his Washington paymasters. Had he listened to his military advisors instead, he probably would have withdrawn his troops earlier and spared himself a Gadhafi-like demise.  Now, that’s probably no longer possible.

Poroshenko’s desperation has led to an appeal to western allies and the United Nations for the deployment of a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.  The request is an admission of defeat and has no chance of being implemented, mainly because it  violates the terms of the recent peace agreement (Minsk 2.0), but, also, because voting members on the Security Council (Russia and China) are certain to veto the idea. Clearly, Poroshenko, who is increasingly embattled and reviled, is grasping at straws hoping to avoid the same violent end he ruthlessly inflicted on so many of his countrymen. Here is a brief summary of recent events from the World Socialist Web Site:

“The debacle suffered by the Kiev regime exposes the utterly reckless and frankly stupid character of the policy pursued by Washington and its EU allies in Ukraine….

The initial attempts of the Kiev regime and its CIA backers to subjugate east Ukraine by sheer military terror, relying on fascist militias and select units of the Ukraine army that it considered to be reliable, have failed….

Nevertheless, Washington is pressing Kiev to prepare for a renewed offensive and is still discussing directly arming the Ukrainian army against Russia with US weapons….

In west Ukraine, the population is evading or resisting draft orders to obtain more cannon fodder for the east Ukraine war. At the same time, Ukraine’s economy, cut off from its main industrial base in east Ukraine and its export markets in Russia, is collapsing.

“The country is at war that they cannot afford to fight. There is no economy any longer….Gerald Celente of Trends Journal told Russia Today. “That $160 billion loss of trade with Russia has destroyed the economy, when it was already in a severe recession. It went from very bad to worse than depression levels.”

(“US-backed Kiev regime faces military debacle in east Ukraine war“, Alex Lantier, World Socialist Web Site

Washington has largely won the information war, having persuaded Congress and the American people that US policy in Ukraine is “just”, but on the ground, where it counts, Washington has encountered one catastrophic failure after another. This process will undoubtedly persist until the costs are too exorbitant to bear.

The post The ‘Exceptional’ US Suffers Crushing Defeat In Debaltsevo – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Stephen Westcott*

Australia has been edging closer to embracing the Indian Ocean region for several years and finally openly declared in the 2013 Defence White Paper that it considered the Indian Ocean to be a key interest of the country. The international compulsions behind Australia’s new focus, from the rise of India to the concern over China’s recent posturing to the securing of its neighbouring sea lanes from criminal activities, are all relatively well known. Less widely discussed are Australia’s domestic factors that have led to this relatively new policy approach. This dearth of analysis naturally beggars the question: what, if any, are the domestic motivations behind Australia’s relatively new interest in the Indian Ocean?

The answer to this question rests first and foremost on the growing concern about the state and nature of the Australian economy. Though services such as education are an increasing part of the Australian economy, Australia still predominately relies upon its export of primary resources, especially mineral resources and agricultural products. Indeed, Australia managed by and large to avoid the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in primarily due to its strong export growth to Asia and in particular the People’s Republic of China. According to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics quoted by Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia’s exports to China in 2013 broke approximately US$94 billion, which amounts to nearly a third of Australia’s total exports. Indeed, this figure is effectively double the second highest export partner, Japan, and certainly dwarfs Australian-Indian trade which reaches approximately US$46 billion and US$10 billion respectively. The sheer volume of Australia-China bilateral trade, which is only expected to grow following the reaching of a free trade agreement in November 2014, has caused consternation amongst a few Australians who worry the country is becoming too dependent on the Asian giant.

Even with such worries aside, the degree to which the Australian economy is linked to China’s has made it particularly susceptible to any shifts. With the Chinese economy now definitely slowing, there has been concern from industry groups in Australia that the country could dip into a recession owing to a subsequent decline in the country’s exports. With decreasing demand from other traditional trading partners in Asia and Europe, Australian diplomats have naturally begun to look around for other markets for export in order to mitigate the impact of any economic slowdown and ensure that Australia does not, as the current Trade Minister articulated, “have all our eggs in one basket.” With two of the BRICS countries, India and South Africa, and several other key growing economies, such as Indonesia, having a presence in Indian Ocean, it is a natural for Australia to take more of an interest to events off its western shores.

Of course the growing interest has not been completely driven by economic concerns. The fact that there have been three prominent Defence and/or Foreign Ministers over the past seven years from the Indian Ocean facing Western Australia has certainly helped as they have sought to raise the state’s profile by highlighting the importance of the Indian Ocean at the national level as well as hosting international summits in Perth. More influential has been the increasing concern within Australian society over the potential impact of asylum-seekers, who largely originate from the Indian Ocean. A 2014 poll conducted by an influential Australian think-tank, the Lowy Institute, found that approximately 75 per cent of Australians consider asylum-seekers, especially those that arrive via boat, to be a threat to the stability of the country and believe they should be discouraged, if not actively repulsed. Even though the extent to which asylum-seekers attempting to reach Australia realistically constitute a threat is contentious, these perceptions have been highly influential on recent Australian domestic politics. As Indian Ocean littoral countries are typically where these asylum-seekers come from, Australia has inevitably taken greater interest and sought ways to improve stability in the region, if only to address the flow of refugees at the source.

Part of the shift also has to do with Australia’s perception of itself as a ‘middle power’ that should have a significant interest and engagement with its neighbourhood. Indeed, this is a near universal belief within the Australian polity that the only real debate has been over whether the country is stronger than a middle power and how best to exercise this power. In essence, Australia’s strong self-conception of itself as a middle power has led it to pursue policies that seek to contribute, as a ‘good international citizen’, to the security of the international community and to be a source of diplomatic influence. This has manifested most visibly with Australia’s maintenance and utilisation of a relatively small but highly effective defence force. The ADF is utilised by Australia not only as a deterrent against encroachment on its interests, but also frequently for expeditionary missions alongside the US and also on of its own initiative within its neighbourhood, as Australia did in 1999 in Timor Leste and in 2003 in the Solomon Islands. The recent interest that Australia has shown in the Indian Ocean clearly has the imprint of its middle power mentality, and it will clearly attempt to ‘punch above its weight’ as it enters the region in earnest.

*Stephen Westcott
Research Intern, IPCS

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ANTI-SEMITISM is on the rise. All over Europe it is raising its ugly head. Jews are in danger everywhere. They must make haste and come home to Israel before it is too late.

True? Untrue?

Nonsense.

PRACTICALLY ALL the alarming incidents which have taken place in Europe recently – especially in Paris and Copenhagen – in which Jews were killed or attacked – had nothing to do with anti-Semitism.

All these outrages were conducted by young Muslims, mostly of Arab descent. They were part of the ongoing war between Israelis and Arabs that has nothing to do with anti-Semitism. They are not descended from the pogrom in Kishinev and not related to the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

In theory, Arab anti-Semitism is an oxymoron, since Arabs are Semites. Indeed, Arabs may be more Semitic then Jews, because Jews have mingled for many centuries with Gentiles.

But, of course, the German publicist Wilhelm Marr, who probably invented the term Antisemitismus in 1880 (after inventing the term Semitismus seven years earlier) never met an Arab in his life. For him the only Semites were Jews, and his crusade was solely against them.

(Adolf Hitler, who took his racism seriously, applied it to all Semites. He could not stand Arabs either. Contrary to legend, he disliked the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Haj Amin al-Husseini, who had fled to Germany. After meeting him once for a photo-opportunity arranged by the Nazi propaganda machine, he never agreed to meet him again.)

SO WHY do young Muslims in Europe shoot Jews, after killing cartoonists who have insulted The Prophet?

Experts say that the basic reason is their profound hatred for their host countries, in which they feel (quite rightly) that they are despised, humiliated and discriminated against. In countries like France, Belgium, Denmark and many others, their violent rage needs an outlet.

But why the Jews?

There are at least two main reasons:

The first is local. French Muslims are mostly immigrants from North Africa. During the desperate struggle for Algerian independence, almost all the Algerian Jews sided with the colonialist regime against the local freedom fighters. When all Jews and many Arabs emigrated from Algeria to France, they brought their fight with them. Since they now live side by side in the crowded ghettos around Paris and elsewhere, their mutual hatred lives on and often leads to violence.

The second reason is the ongoing Arab-Zionist conflict, which started with the mass immigration of Jews to Arab Palestine, continued with the long list of wars and is now in full bloom. Practically every Arab in the world, and most Muslims are emotionally involved in the conflict.

But what have French Jews to do with that far-away conflict? Everything.

When Binyamin Netanyahu does not miss an opportunity to declare that he represents all the Jews in the world, he makes all the world’s Jews responsible for Israeli policies and actions.

When Jewish institutions in France, the US and everywhere totally and uncritically identify with the policies and operations of Israel, such as the recent Gaza war, they turn themselves voluntarily into potential victims of revenge actions. The French Jewish leadership, CRIF, did so just now.

Neither of these reasons has anything to do with anti-Semitism.

ANTI-SEMITISM is an integral part of European culture.

Many theories have been put forward to explain this totally illogical phenomenon, which borders on a collective mental disease.

My own preferred theory is religious. All over Europe, and now also in the Americas, Christian children in their formative years hear the stories of the New Testament. They learn that a Jewish mob was shouting for the blood of Jesus, the gentle and mild preacher, while the Roman prefect, Pontius Pilatus, was desperately trying to save his life. The Roman is depicted as a humane, likeable person, while the Jews are seen as a vile, despicable mob.

This story cannot be true. Roman rulers all over the Empire used to crucify potential troublemakers. The behavior of the Jewish authorities in the story does not conform to Jewish law. But the New Testament story, written long after the death of Jesus (whose real Hebrew name was Jeshua), was aimed at the Roman audience the Christians were trying to convert, in hot competition with the Jewish missionaries.

Also, the early Christians were a small, persecuted sect in Jewish Jerusalem, and their grudge lives on to this very day.

The picture of the evil Jews crying out for the death of Jesus is unconsciously imprinted in the minds of the Christian multitudes and has inspired Jew-hatred in every new generation. The results were slaughter, mass-expulsions, inquisition, persecution in every form, pogroms, and finally the Holocaust.

THERE has never been anything like this in Muslim history.

The Prophet had some small wars with neighboring Jewish tribes, but the Koran contains strict instructions on how to deal with Jews and Christians, the People of the Book. They had to be treated fairly and were exempted from military duty in return for a poll tax. Throughout the ages there were some rare anti-Jewish (and anti-Christian) outbreaks here and there, but Jews in Muslim lands fared incomparably better than in Christian ones.

If this had not been so, there would have been no “Golden Age” of Muslim-Jewish cultural symbiosis in medieval Spain. It would have been impossible for the Muslim Ottoman empire to accept and absorb almost all the hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees from medieval Spain, driven out by their Catholic Majesties, Ferdinand and Isabella. The outstanding Jewish religious thinker, Moses Maimonides (the “Rambam”) could not have become the personal physician and adviser of the outstanding Muslim sultan, Salah-al-Din al-Ayubi (Saladin).

The present conflict started as a clash between two national movements, Jewish Zionism and secular Arab nationalism, and had only slight religious overtones. As my friends and I have warned many times, it is now turning into a religious conflict – a calamity with potentially grievous consequences.

Nothing to do with anti-Semitism.

SO WHY does the entire Israeli propaganda machine, including all Israeli media, insist that Europe is experiencing a catastrophic rise of anti-Semitism? In order to call upon European Jews to come to Israel (in Zionist terminology: “make Aliya”).

For a Zionist true believer, every Jew’s arrival in Israel is an ideological victory. Never mind that once in Israel, new immigrants – especially from countries like Ethiopia and Ukraine – are neglected. As I have frequently quoted: “Israelis like immigration but don’t like immigrants”.

In the wake of the recent events in Paris and Copenhagen, Binyamin Netanyahu has publicly called upon French and Danish Jews to pack up and come at once to Israel for their own safety. The prime ministers of both countries have furiously protested against these calls, which insinuate that they are unable or unwilling to protect their own citizens. I suppose that no leader likes a foreign politician to call upon his citizens to leave.

There is something grotesque in this call: as the late Professor Yeshayahu Leibowitz remarked, Israel is the only place in the world where Jewish lives are in constant danger. With a war every few years and violent incidents almost every day, he had a point.

But in the wake of the dramatic events, many “French” Jews – originally from North Africa – may be induced to leave France. They may not all come to Israel. The US, French Canada and Australia offer tempting alternatives.

There are many good reasons for a Jew to come to Israel: a mild climate, the Hebrew language, living among fellow Jews, and what not. But running away from anti-Semites is not one of them.

IS THERE real anti-Semitism in Europe? I assume that there is.

In many European countries there are old and new super-nationalist groups, who try to attract the masses by hatred of the Other. Jews are the Others par excellence (along with Gypsies/Roma). An ethno-religious group dispersed in many countries, belonging and not belonging to their host countries, with foreign – and therefore sinister – beliefs and rituals. All the European nationalist movements which sprang up in the 19th and 20th centuries were more or less anti-Semitic.

Jews have always been, and still are, the ideal scapegoat for the European poor. It was the German (non-Jewish) socialist August Bebel who said that “anti-Semitism is the socialism of the stupid guys”.

With frequent economic slumps and a widening gap between the local poor and the multinational super-rich, the need for scapegoats is rising. But I do not believe that these marginal groups, even if some of them are not so marginal anymore, constitute a real anti-Semitic surge.

Be that as it may, the outrages in Paris and Copenhagen have nothing to do with anti-Semitism.

The post EU Attacks On Jews Had Nothing To Do With Anti-Semitism – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Daniel Tost

(EurActiv) — Germans see immigration as the EU’s most important current challenge, while a majority are opposed to immigrants from outside the bloc.

In Thursday’s (19 February) national edition of the Eurobarometer opinion poll, 37% of Germans surveyed see migration as the biggest challenge for the EU, and for Germany, at the moment.

Only in the United Kingdom (38%) and Malta (57%) are these percentages higher. In most member states, the economic situation (33%) and unemployment (29%) were perceived as the biggest Europe-wide issues.

Meanwhile only 29% of Germans have a positive opinion of immigration from third countries, outside the EU. A relative majority (45%) said they believe illegal immigration into the EU should be counteracted at both EU and national levels. This corresponds to perceptions among a growing number of respondents in Germany (29%), who feel there are not enough inspections at the EU’s external borders.

As a result, German citizens are somewhat more critical than the average of all Europeans surveyed, of which 57% are against immigrants from third countries. Opposition was higher than in Germany among respondents from Italy (75%), Latvia (79%) and Slovakia (74%).

“The issue of migration has become more controversial and has reached the mainstream of society,” said Richard Kühnel, representative of the European Commission in Germany. Better integration of immigrants from third countries is a shared task, he explained. Protection of refugees, who come to the EU via the Mediterranean, must also be improved, Kühnel indicated.

Half of Germans surveyed (50%) welcome immigration from other EU member states. 76% of Germans said they thought it was good that every EU citizen can live in any EU country. 76% of Germans see it as a good thing that every EU citizen can work in an EU country of their choosing.

Meanwhile Germany is attracting a growing number of immigrants, especially from Eastern Europe. In the first half of 2014, 667,000 people moved to the Federal Republic. That is 112,000 or 20% more than the year before, the Federal Statistical Office indicated on Thursday.

At the same time, 427,000 people left Germany. The resulting difference between those leaving and arriving was 240,000 more people moving into the country than moving out.

“Most foreign immigrants who arrived came from Europe,” the statisticians explained. Romania (98,000) is first on the list, followed by Poland (96,000) and Bulgaria (38,000).

“In the cases of Romania and Bulgaria, it can be observed as the result of the complete free movement of workers which took effect in 2014, seven years after EU accession took effect for both states,” the Statistical Office indicated.

Among non-European states, immigration from the civil-war-ridden country Syria saw a considerable increase – rising 242% and thereby reaching 22,000 immigrants.

Many citizens from southern eurozone states also come to Germany because of the economic and debt crises. Immigration from Italy increase by 28%, and from Spain by 1%. At the same time, immigration from Greece decreased by 7%.

More people also came from Bosnia Herzegovina and Serbia, which “is likely to correspond in part to the growing number of asylum seekers from these countries,” the Statistical Office said.

A prediction from the Federal Agency for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) indicates the total number of asylum applications is likely to rise 50% compared to 2014, reaching 300,000. This includes around 250,000 first-time and 50,000 follow-up applications, a spokeswoman from the Federal Agency said on Thursday, citing the prognosis, which she said had been sent to the federal states.

With 203,000 applications last year, the Federal Republic already recorded its fourth highest number of applications since its existence. At the same time, authorities have become more strict: 10,884 people were deported, more than had been in eight years.

The German authorities are particularly concerned about increasing numbers of people coming from Kosovo, who are often brought in by human traffickers. At the federal and regional levels, there is agreement that applications from Kosovo should be processed within two weeks, and that deportation should be used more readily.

Translated from German Erika Körner

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By Ram Upendra Das*

The economics of neighborhood and regional integration are quite important in regions that are particularly land-locked. However, a regional economic integration process has thus far almost bypassed the Central Asia-South Asia economic interaction.  Now is when both the regions need to integrate to address their developmental challenges. This assumes special importance in the context of what has come to be known since the Istanbul process as the Heart of Asia initiative. The term ‘Heart of Asia’ refers to Afghanistan and its extended neighbors. It does not denote a new geographical entity; instead Afghanistan’s crucial role is recognized as the land-bridge connecting South Asia, Central Asia, Eurasia/Europe and the Middle East.

The Central Asian region has literally been at the crossroads for the movement of people, goods, capital and ideas across Europe on one hand and the East Asian region, on the other – via West Asia and South Asia. Central Asia has been at the center of the well-known historic trade and transport network called the Silk Route. Today, the Central Asian region is yet again at a cross-road as it has fallen short of unlocking its true economic growth and development potential. One of the important ways to address this could be through regional economic integration.

The Central Asian region, given its typology and geography, appears quite amenable to regional economic integration; and its land-lockedness and locational advantages make it an ideal candidate for deeper regional economic integration. On the other hand, the South Asian Region too is still grappling with major developmental challenges like poverty reduction, social development, energy security, infrastructural development, etc. Most of its countries are LDCs and a few are land-locked. The region has had its own share of political strife.

Given the rich natural and human resource availability, industrial base, services sector dynamism and macroeconomic resilience, the South Asian region offers complementary economic structures that are quite conducive to South Asia – Central Asia economic integration, as some studies suggest.

However, there are significant constraints to trade and investment integration in Central Asia and between Central and South Asia pertaining to trade policy, connectivity, banking infrastructure, among others.

Apart from trade barriers including complex tariff schedules; relatively high tariffs and in some cases restrictions on access to foreign exchange; constraints are also faced in trade facilitating customs procedures as they are at differing levels of evolution in the Central and South Asian regions and they lack harmonization across countries. Not only because of the landlocked and remote location of the Central Asian region and its difficult topography, but also due to deficiencies of their transport networks, and logistics services, trade is hampered between Central and South Asian countries. The issues of transit facilities perhaps assume greater importance.

Limited air connectivity also restricts business-to-business contacts, educational services, health services, tourism linkages, etc.

The importance of the banking sector for trade and investment integration at the regional and inter-regional levels economic growth and development cannot be overemphasized. The linkages between the two regions in several areas of trade finance and credit guarantee and insurance facilities remain underdeveloped. A lack of adequate financial intermediation is acting as a major constraint on trade-related and FDI-inducing trusted business environment, having deleterious implications for regional and inter-regional economic integration.

The investment climate also remains unpredictable in Central Asia. It is characterized by confusing laws and regulations, often enforced arbitrarily. Problems for investments have been identified in the realms of land property rights that have not yet been fully established in most of the countries. Policy reforms focusing on privatization and restructuring of the larger economic entities are far from complete. Moreover, registration and licensing procedures are time-consuming and need rationalization. Some of the South Asian countries too are under-developed in this respect.

In terms of the existing policy mechanisms to economically integrate Central and South Asian regions shows that important fora like the UN-supported SPECA and the Heart of Asia are in place and have received attention at high levels of policy-discourse. However, a more formal policy framework which focuses on integrating the two regions in the realms of trade in goods, trade in services, investment and other dimensions of cooperation is missing and possibly acts as a major institutional constraint on harnessing the potentials for economic integration between the two regions.

*Dr Ram Upendra Das is Professor at a New Delhi-based think-tank Research and Information System for Developing Countries, New Delhi. He can be reached via Email: upendra@ris.org.in and Twitter: @Upendra900. Views are personal.

The post Rationale For And Constraints To South Asia-Central Asia Economic Linkages – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The PLO (Palestine Liberation Organisation) did not object to the appointment of new UN special coordinator for the Middle East peace process Nikolay Mladenov, although he was described by Tayseer Khaled, a member of the PLO’s Executive Committee, as “persona non grata” — not trusted by the Palestinians and nor qualified for the job.

The 15-member UN Security Council unanimously voted to appoint Bulgarian Mladenov, 42, to succeed Holland’s Robert Serry. He would also be the representative of the UN secretary general to the International Quartet (the UN, US, EU and Russia), and personal representative of the UN chief to the PLO (the State of Palestine) and the Palestinian Authority (PA).

Although protocol allows the PLO the right to reject diplomatic representatives to the organisation, observers cannot understand why it accepted Mladenov. There is no convincing answer except a futile desire by the PLO to appease the UN and Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, at a time when PLO diplomatic efforts are focused on the UN and its agencies.

Mladenov not only failed in a similar mission as UN envoy to Iraq and resigned, he is someone who describes himself — and is described by the leaders of the Israeli occupation — as “a good friend of Israel”. As Bulgarian foreign minister, Mladenov suggested a “military alliance” between Bulgaria and Israel. He has often spoken about his bias towards “Israel’s right to exist” and its right “to defend itself” against Palestinians resisting Israeli occupation. He even admitted to being a Free Mason, served Jewish billionaire George Soros, and publicly advocated the US’s “constructive chaos” policies in the Arab world. In fact, his Jewish origins may be the least controversial aspect of him.

Meanwhile, the occupation state does not hesitate in ignoring the UN, its resolutions and representatives, disregarding and even assassinating them when necessary. Most recently, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman threatened to “expel” Mladenov’s predecessor Serry as “persona non grata”. Shortly before that, William Schabas, the head of the UN commission investigating the occupation’s recent war on the Gaza Strip, resigned after Israel refused to cooperate with him or allow him to enter the country.

After the UN tolerated the assassination of its first envoy to Palestine, Swedish Count Folke Bernadotte in 1948, at the hands of the Zionist Stern Gang led by Yitzhak Shamir (who later became prime minister of the occupation state), Israel was emboldened to adopt a permanent policy of disregarding the UN without deterrence so far.

In fact, over the past two years the occupation state has carried out a proxy war against the UN. It has facilitated logistics, intelligence, firepower and medical assistance to allow the domination of militias fighting the Syrian regime on its side of the disengagement zone between the liberated and occupied Arab Syrian Golan. This compelled the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) to withdraw after its positions were attacked, dozens of its troops kidnapped and their weapons and equipment seized. Until today, the UN has not dared to rectify the situation, which resulted in the collapse of the UN-sponsored ceasefire and rules of engagement between Syria and Israel.

The Middle East is teeming with international peace envoys. The UN has one, so does the US, the EU, Russia, China and the Quartet. Their names change without anything on the ground in occupied Palestine changing. Except for expanding the occupation through settlements under the “peace” umbrella these envoys provide, without any hope that the international community they represent will be able to effect any real tangible change for the present and future of the Palestinian people on the ground.

So what can Mladenov do that his predecessors, the UN, the Quartet, the Arab League and others, couldn’t?

Khaled believes the real test, to remove Palestinian doubts about Mladenov’s role and mission, will be his position on the siege on Gaza and reconstruction there. However, Mladenov’s track record does not indicate there is cause for optimism. Nor does the track record of “UN special coordinators” since the creation of the position in 1994 and the subsequent expansion of its role, as well as the extensive history of choosing UN and US envoys of Jewish origins or related in the first degree to Jews, such as Henry Kissinger, Madeleine Albright, John Kerry, Dennis Ross, Martin Indyk and Quartet representative Tony Blair.

On 6 February, the secretaries general of the UN and Arab League issued a joint statement expressing “deep concern” about conditions in Gaza. They urged Arab and international donors to honour their financial pledges made at the Cairo Conference last October “as soon as possible”, in order to rebuild the Gaza Strip and end the siege there. A few days ago, James Rowley, UN coordinator for humanitarian affairs in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967, sent out an “urgent call” for these commitments to be fulfilled and an “immediate” lift of the siege on Gaza, because he is “very concerned another conflict will break out” if not.

The Palestinian Foreign Ministry described the statement by the Quartet on 8 February after it met in Munich, Germany, as “short of expectations” because it ignored “all the old-new and evolving truths” of the occupation state.

The Quartet also said it is “deeply concerned” about the “difficult conditions in Gaza where reconstruction needs to be quicker” and urged donors to “pay their financial pledges as soon as possible”. However, it linked this to encouraging both sides to “restart negotiations as soon as possible”.

Restarting talks “as soon as possible”, nonetheless, must await the outcome of general elections in Israel and the US. This means the Palestinian people must wait for another two years in the vain hope of reconstructing Gaza. It is obvious the occupation state is enjoying the luxury of time, making easy the occupation without resistance, as well as building settlements without deterrence.

Before handing over the reins to Mladenov, Serry described the failure of donors to pay their dues as “scandalous” and warned “if there is no progress in the coming months” — not two years — towards a two-state solution, “the reality will be a one state [solution]”: the single state of Israel. Former UN coordinator Terry Rod Larsen said in 2002, “the Palestinian patient is dying in the interim.”

Last December, Serry warned in his report to the Security Council that a war in Gaza “could re-ignite if conditions on the ground do not change” in the besieged Gaza Strip. It is clear that what Serry described as a “deadly diplomatic vacuum” coupled with the ongoing siege on rebuilding Gaza, are an explosive recipe in the besieged Gaza Strip, the outcome and ramifications of which are unpredictable.

The “scandal” of donors not paying their dues to rebuild Gaza, as Serry described it, under the pretext that the PLO government does not control the Gaza Strip, is a green light given by the international community to the occupation state to carry out another military assault on national resistance forces in Gaza.

The scandal of Arabs not paying their pledges at Arab summits to provide the PA with a financial “safety net” amounts to flagrant Arab pressure on the PLO to accept the Quartet’s proposal to restart talks with the occupation state “as soon as possible”.

This is Mladenov’s dual mission as the new UN special coordinator for the Middle East peace process. PLO negotiators continue to wait for a breakthrough by “peace” envoys that are imposed on them and appointed by the US and the UN, although they represent the occupation state. Mladenov is the most recent. He will not change anything on the ground.

* Nicola Nasser is a veteran Arab journalist based in Birzeit, West Bank of the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories (nassernicola@ymail.com). This article was translated from Arabic and first published by Al-Ahram Weekly on 20 February 2015.

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By Ghazanfar Ali Khan

Top military officials from 26 member states of the anti-Islamic State coalition, including Saudi Arabia and the US, stressed their readiness in Riyadh on Thursday to equip and strengthen the Iraqi army.

The officials also called on the coalition to improve coordination to combat terror groups that are hampering peace plans.

“The military chiefs expressed their willingness to make utmost efforts to establish peace in the Middle East,” a Western diplomatic source told local media, during a press briefing.

US Gen. Lloyd J. Austin, who heads the US-led war against IS, and Gen. Tom Lawson, Canada’s Chief of the Defense Staff, were among the senior officers attending the two-day talks.

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif, second deputy premier and minister of interior, held talks with Austin, the head of the US Central Command.

In a separate meeting on the sidelines of the talks, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, minister of defense, received all defense chiefs of the countries participating in the coalition, for their fifth meeting in Riyadh.

Asked if any new plan or strategy was agreed by the military chiefs, another official source said “they are looking at a firm plan, a coordinated plan, to empower the Iraqi Army” against IS. With no nation interested in putting boots into the country, strengthening Iraq’s 200,000-strong army against tens of thousands of IS fighters remains the best option, the source said.

The meeting discussed in detail the growing IS threat, the military strategy and security situations in Iraq, Libya and Syria and other neighboring countries.

The military chiefs also exchanged notes about the challenges to ongoing operations and ways to boost and coordinate general counter-terrorism efforts in the region.

Local Australian, French, German, and British diplomats contacted by Arab News confirmed the participation of their top defense officials in the meeting, but refused to divulge details about the meeting.

Michael Ohnmacht, deputy chief of German missions, spoke about the German participation, but could not provide more information.

Nicola Woodget, press officer at the British embassy, confirmed the participation of the British Chief of Defense Staff General Sir Nicholas Houghton at the meeting today, which was predominantly attended by Western allies of the Kingdom.

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The World Bank has approved a US$65 million credit for the Nepal Higher Education Reforms Project to help address the human resource needs of the country and add to the national knowledge base.

The project intends to support reforms in selected institutions for improving quality, relevance, and efficiency of higher education; and to assist under-privileged students for equitable access.

The project will focus on implementation of reforms in different areas including more effective public funding of higher education institutions, institutionalization of the national accreditation system, greater institutional autonomy, strengthening of the examination system, expansion of new academic programs and research and financial support for under-privileged students.

“Investing in human capital is critical for Nepal,” said Takuya Kamata, the World Bank’s Country Manager for Nepal. “This Project will help support key institutional reforms in the higher education sector allowing graduates – including those from disadvantaged backgrounds – to acquire relevant and higher quality skills to be better able to respond to labor market needs” he said.

The project is part of the National Program for Higher Education Reform and Development (NPHERD). It is expected to benefit over 500,000 current and future students of over 150 public universities and affiliated campuses through different interventions.

The credit carries a maturity of 38 years including 6 years of grace period.

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On February 16, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said that “lack of opportunity for jobs” is one of the most prominent “root causes” driving ISIS recruitment efforts. Two days later, President Obama addressed the same issue, echoing Harf’s explanation.

After acknowledging that “poverty alone does not cause a person to become a terrorist,” Obama immediately cited the central role of “economic grievances.” He was explicit: “When people, especially young people, feel entirely trapped in impoverished communities—where there is no order and no path for advancement, where there are no educational opportunities, where there are no ways to support families….[this is what] makes those communities ripe for extremist recruitment.”

The New York Times quotes some Muslim experts on this subject. One said that in his experience the young men drawn to join ISIS “came from a variety of family backgrounds.” Another said, “They can come from every ethnic, socioeconomic group, any geographic area.” In short, both reject the class analysis favored by the Obama administration.

Trying to get to the “root causes” of ISIS recruitment efforts makes good sense. Unfortunately, the left-wing lens used by the Obama team renders them blind to reality. It is not structural conditions that draw young men to join ISIS—it is psychocultural factors.

Laurie Goodstein, who wrote the Times article, correctly stated that many are enticed to join ISIS because “they feel alienated by life in the West and admit that they have been vulnerable to the Islamic State’s invitation to help build a puritanical utopia.” Similarly, one of the experts she mentions describes the typical recruit as “an alienated young Muslim with a black-and-white worldview, looking for purpose and adventure.”

Obama and his staff need to exchange their Marxist-infected glasses with a pair that allows for a psychocultural vision. Jobs are not the answer.

The post Obama Clueless On ISIS Recruitment – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Nick Simeone

Preparations are underway by coalition and Iraqi forces to retake Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorists, an operation that could begin as early as April and will require an Iraqi-led military force of at least 20,000 troops, a U.S. Central Command official said.

The official, who briefed Pentagon reporters on background, said military planners would like to see the battle for Mosul begin in the April or May time frame, but said the timing will be dependent upon Iraqi and Kurdish forces being adequately prepared for the fight. Later than that, he said, the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the onset of hot weather in the region could complicate matters.

Big Battle

The official said discussion continues at the highest levels of the U.S. government over whether U.S. military advisors could be deployed to frontline battlefield positions to assist Iraqi and Kurdish fighters.

The fight to retake Mosul would be the biggest battle since the start of Operation Inherent Resolve, which began with U.S. and coalition airstrikes on ISIL targets last August, after the terrorist group swept into Iraq from neighboring Syria. ISIL seized wide swaths of territory, executing non-believers as well as hostages and members of minority groups, all in an effort to establish a caliphate across the Iraqi-Syria border.

U.S. and coalition forces have been working to train thousands of Iraqi fighters to reclaim territory ahead of the battle for Mosul, the official said. Efforts are also underway to train moderate opposition fighters in Syria.

Anti-ISIL Campaign Succeeding

While there have been setbacks, the Centcom official said the coalition military campaign has succeeded in putting ISIL on the defensive, with the terrorist group losing territory in Iraq as well as the ability to govern and adequately regenerate forces.

“There is no organization in the world that can suffer those kinds of casualties and not have a tremendous impact on their ability to achieve their long-term aims,” the official said.

Iraqi forces have retaken at least 700 square kilometers of territory, according to the official, who said the military campaign against ISIL is going well but it will take time to defeat the terrorists.

“Mosul will not be easy,” he said. “It’s going to be a difficult fight.”

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