By Drazen Remikovic

The appearance of flags and emblems of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) on houses in the northeastern Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) village of Gornja Maoca has raised concerns about the dangers posed by militants returning from Syria and Iraq.

Last month, photos emerged showing ISIL flags flying from several homes in the village of Gornja Maoca and symbols painted on a woodshed.

“In connection with the information that ISIL flags were spread in the village of Gornja Maoca, State Investigative and Protection Agency (SIPA) officers, together with other police agencies, went to the scene to determine all the necessary facts on the ground, but they found no ISIL flags on the scene. We informed the prosecutor about that and we will continue to work on this case,” Kristina Jozic, SIPA spokesperson, told SETimes.

The village, which is home to citizens with a Wahhabi ideology, has been raided by police several times in the past due to suspected links with radical groups.

Police patrols are situated day and night at the entrance to the village, and many residents of the village have been subjects of interest in several investigations linked to terrorism.

Their informal leader, Nusret Imamovic, left BiH to fight in Syria 15 months ago.

“When the police showed up, the flags were removed. It is a criminal offence and somebody should be responsible for this,” Dusanka Majkic, chairman of the Joint Committee for Defence and Security of BiH’s state parliament, told SETimes. “Villages that are under the control of the Wahhabi movement are simply living outside the constitutional system of this country. We need strong support from the international community, as well as co-operation between police bodies and agencies in the region to combat this. Of course, it also takes political will, primarily from the Bosniak political elite in BiH.”

According to a CIA report released in September, more than 350 fighters, including women and children, have left BiH to join ISIL terrorists fighting in Syria and Iraq. BiH’s Islamic Community has denounced those joining ISIL.

Dzevad Galijasevic, the director of the BiH Humanitarian Law Centre and an anti-terrorism expert, told SETimes that the police should increase the surveillance on villages in the country that have Wahhabi ties.

“Of course, these emblems represent provocation. They have a symbolic message from ISIL: ‘We are here.’ That message aims to spread fear. This kind of propaganda should be stopped because it encourages young people to go to foreign battlefields. European countries are decisive about increasing combat against this evil, and I think that policy will take the same direction in BiH as well,” Galijasevic told SETimes.

In April 2014, BiH joined the other regional countries in passing a bill introducing prison terms of up to 10 years for citizens who join terrorist groups and for those who recruit them.

Citizens agree that action must be taken.

“Photos with the black flags in Gornja Maoca have travelled the entire region, and Europe, too. This sends a very ugly picture of ourselves that people accept slaughtering or burning somebody, and people who support it are living in our country. Authorities need to prevent such a picture from our country to the world,” Marija Vesic, 40, from Banja Luka told SETimes.

Militant Islam was all but unknown to BiH’s mostly secular Muslim population until the 1990s Balkans conflicts, when Arab mercenaries arrived to help BiH Muslims fend off Serb attacks. These fighters, many of whom settled in BiH, introduced a radical version of Islam that the nation’s official Islamic community opposes.

“It is very strange that BiH tolerated the existence of places like Gornja Maoca for years. If this was happening in America or Britain, this village would have been wiped out in one day. It is strange that at the heart of Europe there are places like this. The whole world knows that these people are a threat to all,” Muris Djurkovic, 29, from Mostar told SETimes.

The post Police Urged To Boost Control In Bosnia’s Wahhabi Villages appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Michael Lelyveld

Rising debt levels in China and recent policy pronouncements suggest an approaching collision of economic policy goals.

Regulators have been gradually moving toward banking reforms since last March when People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan announced that China would likely lift its controls on deposit rates in one or two years.

The pledge was made under pressure from competition with China’s growing but unregulated “shadow banking” sector and online financial products that offer higher-yielding but higher-risk returns.

At the time, a survey by China Youth Daily found that nearly 85 percent of depositors had invested in Internet “wealth management products” that earn more than accounts in state banks.

The outlook was complicated in November when the PBOC cut interest rates in an effort to spur the economy, dropping lending rates by 0.40 percent point while lowering the deposit rate by a smaller 0.25 percent.

On March 1, the PBOC cut the benchmark loan and deposit rates again, both by 0.25 percent point, hoping to halt the slide in growth.

But in a complicated move, the regulators sought to liberalize deposit rates at the same time by allowing banks to offer premiums over the official ceiling, first by 120 percent of the benchmark and then by 130 percent.

The result was that one-year deposit rates were left essentially unchanged.

Impact on SOEs

Analysts warned of a squeeze on bank margins in the near term, but some economists have raised concerns about longer-range impacts of interest rate reforms on China’s heavily-indebted state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

The thinking is that the gradual lifting of PBOC controls will eventually lead to increased returns on bank deposits, which will still be competing with higher-paying Internet instruments.

When banks then raise lending rates, financial burdens will rise on SOEs, which are already under a mountain of 67.1 trillion yuan (U.S. $10.7 trillion) of debt, according to Ministry of Finance figures for 2013.

The returns on assets in the bloated SOE sector are only one-third of those for private companies and half of those for foreign enterprises, said Ryan Rutkowski, a former research analyst at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, in a recent posting.

“More importantly, as China continues the process of reforming the financial sector and eventually removes deposit interest rate controls, the resulting higher lending rates will likely put additional pressure on less profitable firms,” Rutkowski wrote.

Increases in lending rates will raise default risks among SOEs, he argued.

Returns for China’s 155,000 SOEs were only about half the weighted average bank lending rate of 7.33 percent in the third quarter last year, he said.

For 2013, the finance ministry reported net profits of 1.9 trillion yuan (U.S. $304 billion) and total assets of 104.1 trillion yuan ($16.6 trillion), the official Xinhua news agency said.

Figures for 2014 appear inconsistent, because the ministry reported a 12.1-percent rise in assets, although the estimate of 102.1 trillion yuan was lower. A similar increase was cited for “liabilities” of 66.5 trillion yuan, which was less than the 2013 debt estimate.

Interest rate liberalization

In light of the government’s concerns about declines in economic growth, the PBOC could probably declare interest rate liberalization now without much risk that rates would increase.

“Lending rates are unlikely to rise given other measures and market conditions,” said Yukon Huang, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former World Bank country director for China, in an email message.

In a sign of economic weakening last month, China Everbright Bank became the first listed lender to drop its one-year deposit rate below the 3.3-percent effective ceiling, offering 3.16 percent, Bloomberg News reported on Feb. 10.

“Pressure on attracting deposits is coming off recently with a slew of easing measures—at the same time, with the economy doing so badly, banks are finding it hard to lend that money out,” said Tang Yayun, an analyst at Northeast Securities Co. in Shanghai.

But Rutkowski makes the case that if a rise in lending rates does follow liberalization, it would add pressure on SOEs along with existing government policies to curb debt growth, driving further efforts to partially privatize SOEs.

Under a Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee policy announced in November 2013, the government has been pursuing a “mixed ownership economy, allowing more SOEs and other firms to develop into mixed-ownership companies.”

The policy, which falls short of outright privatization, aims to draw private investment into the state sector and reform management practices at stagnant SOEs.

In his work report to China’s annual legislative sessions last week, Premier Li Keqiang promised to “implement the reform of introducing mixed ownership to SOEs,” but progress has been slow so far.

Early experiments with mixed ownership have left it unclear how far it will go.

Sinopec as a model

The scheme for leading state-owned refiner Sinopec has been promoted as a model.

Under the plan announced last year, Sinopec sold a nearly 30-percent share in its retail business valued at 107.1 billion yuan (U.S. $17.1 billion) to 25 investors and funds.

Eleven were identified as domestic private investors, accounting for 35.8 percent of the total, the official English-language China Daily reported last September.

Last week, Xinhua reported that one of the investors had not fully paid for a planned share “due to a lack of sufficient capital.”

The partial privatization approach has met with mixed reviews.

In an earlier interview, Yukon Huang said the mixed ownership model is “unlikely to work.”

“Essentially, it doesn’t change the control structure,” he said.

Rutkowski believes that even partial privatization will be “a challenge,” since the state is unlikely to ease its grip on the most valuable assets in strategic sectors, including energy, railways, post and telecommunications.

Other sectors like real estate and construction may not fetch full value due to waning economic growth, he said.

The situation may leave social services and consumer segments as the most opportune for privatization efforts.

Rutkowski estimates that full divestiture in these areas would bring in 14 trillion yuan (U.S. $2.2 trillion), making a dent in SOE debt.

For now, the PBOC interest rate cuts seem aimed at easing financial burdens on big industrial enterprises, which are major borrowers, but if future liberalization leads to market-driven rate hikes, the pressures for more extensive privatization could rise on SOEs.

The post Conflicts Cloud China’s Economic Goals – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Huong Le Thu* for ISEAS

The đổi mới reforms in Vietnam have created opportunities for economic growth and allowed for the private accumulation of wealth. As a result, ownership of consumer goods like refrigerators, televisions, motorbikes and washing machines has become the new norm for urban citizens since the late 1990s. Accompanying this level of consumption is the country’s high economic growth rate which has averaged at 7 percent per annum over the last decade, behind only that of China and India.

This paper is a part of an ongoing project titled “The social portrait of urban middle class in Vietnam”2 which seeks to compare qualities of the middle class in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, examines their life concerns, attitudes to social change, and political awareness. It is based on fieldwork conducted in Hanoi in August 2014, where focus groups discussions and in-depth interviews were conducted. Samples included representation of different age groups and professions.3

The results so far show that despite positive changes in material life, there is a growing sense of vulnerability among the privileged urban middle class over their economic status as well as a growing concern about the quality of public goods.

A cursory look at macro-scale rankings and studies puts Vietnam in a very positive light. For example, the country continues to rank high in global surveys on life satisfaction and optimism. In a recent study on the linkage between money and happiness, Vietnam was ranked second in the group of developing countries, and third in general, in their positive responses to the correlation between money and happiness.

In the Pew Research Center study5, Vietnam also had the highest proportion of respondents among the developing countries who saw a better future for the next generation.

These quantitative indicators support the assumption that the economic transformations have increased not only the Human Development Index (HDI), which went from 0.463 in 1980 to 0.638 in 20136, but also the population’s sense of happiness and satisfaction.

According to some estimations, Vietnam has the fastest growing middle class in Southeast Asia. The 12 million middle-class population of 2012 is projected to grow to 33 million by 2020.7 With population forecasts of 97 million by 20208, this means that approximately one third of the population will be defined as ‘middle class’ by then. When the clear patterns of rural-urban migration are taken into account9, the growth of this class may even exceed these estimations.10 This group is estimated to be driving more than 50 per cent of the country’s total consumption. The sheer size of this middle class in Vietnam requires greater analytical attention, particularly given the gap in both domestic and international research.

Indeed, consumption patterns suggest that a large segments in Vietnamese society experience an increased sense of material fullfilment. Today on the streets of Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City a growing number of the so-called ‘new rich’ (known as đại gia) who drive expensive cars, wear designer bags, and live in multi-storey houses can be observed. Many of them send their children to American universities, spend on a restaurant dinner what it would take an average citizen a few months to pay off, and travel to Singapore to shop for luxury goods. The increasing number of media reports on the excessive consumption and behavior of the new rich underlines the fact that wealth and materialism have found their place in socialist Vietnam. Although the super-rich only constitute a minute percentage of the population, this elite class not only reflects the widening inequality between rich and poor11, but also the noticeable gap between the super-rich and the middle class. This phenomenon is an illustration of the increasing stratification of a society that was highly homogenous in terms of income during the pre-đổi mới era.

A CONTESTED CONCEPT

Studying the middle class in Vietnam can be challenging on a number of levels. In the narratives of history, the modern Vietnamese middle class arose as a result of colonial bureaucratization, resource extraction and industrialization. They were soon joined by educated (mainly abroad) professionals, like medical doctors, journalists, lawyers, clerks, and teachers, and it was this group that shaped the socio-cultural milieu of Hanoi and Saigon. The 1920s and 1930s, some argue,12 were a time when the manifestation of class, and therefore class consciousness, was most distinct. However, the dominance of socialism meant that the upper and middle classes (petite bourgeoisie) became the targeted groups. The communist ideology introduced collectivization and decried private wealth and ownership to make everybody equal. Socialism triggered a large-scale downward social mobility for the urban middle class who lost their wealth, private possessions and social status. It is important, hence, to note that what we are observing now is a re-emergence of the middle class.13

However, the term ‘middle class’ is largely avoided in the country, with the official discourse preferring ‘middle level’ or ‘middle income earners’. In any case, the discrepancy between official salary and unofficial income in Vietnam also makes the income criterion unreliable. The post-socialist term ‘middle level’ (trung bình, referring to an average household income) is neither precise in terms of income and assets, nor adequate in conveying the sense of educational attainment and occupational status associated with the ‘middle class’ elsewhere. In the absence of concrete data on household income across the country, the relativity of social positions and occupations are more important indicators of being ‘middle class’. The imprecise and inconsistent class terminology in Vietnam is intentional, and is meant to avoid associations with the colonial era when social and economic hierarchy was rife.

The definition of ‘middle class’ in this study builds on several factors. To be considered ‘middle class’ in Vietnam is often colloquially expressed as “having enough to eat, having enough to save” (có của ăn có của để), meaning to possess the capacity to bear day-to-day living costs and, additionally, to achieve some savings. For this study, the following factors are considered necessary: property ownership in urban areas (in Hanoi in this case), education, occupation, ownership of such goods as a vehicle14, consumption power, the importance attached to leisure activities, information access and the maintenance of social status. Respondents were invited to suggest their own definitions of middle class, and to state whether or not they identify with this group. The purpose of this is to understand the self- identification process and the sense of class belonging. What was revealed by the respondents in Hanoi was that the city’s middle class tends to see their economic success as a result of hard work, acquired education and cultivated social networks, as well as a sense of being civilized and modern. In short, this new middle class has benefited from the country’s transformation of ‘market socialism’, and has adjusted to modern consumerist lifestyles, adopted global trends, and are seeking to entrench their position in urban society.

CONSUMPTION AS ECONOMIC FREEDOM

Consumerism is an important indicator of middle class status. Until the late 1980s, the state did not recognize consumption activity as a contribution to production. Following the scarcity of basic products in the pre-đổi mới era, the current abundance of products and goods available in Vietnam is not only associated with significant creature comforts but also with the freedom to express one’s identity through consumption tastes.

The study suggests that there is a strong relationship between patterns and preferences of consumerism, social distinction, and concepts of modernity. It is increasingly through specific modes of consumption that the middle class shows itself as ‘civilized’ and ‘respectable’.15 Middle-class consumers desire their products to not only be hygienic and safe, secure and convenient but also fashionable and cosmopolitan. Hence, there is an increasing number of new urbanites who live in gated condominiums with local air-conditioned shopping centers where they can shop for products imported from abroad (often except for those made in China).16

One of the respondents, a middle-aged female clerk observed that: “Every day can be scary if you think about it. I worry whether my kids get home safe or not because, you know, there are so many traffic accidents. Every day I worry if the food they eat outside is safe. Whether they are making friends with bad people and all that.”

Another respondent, this time an entrepreneur, expressed her views on consumption choices thus: “I try to avoid Chinese food products. I shop at supermarkets that have Australian or Korean imported food. It’s not cheap of course. But it gives me peace of mind. The best are the fresh produce from quê (countryside) of course, but only sometimes can I order this through acquaintances. For other products, because I travel quite often, I would bring back from abroad.”

Given the young profile of Vietnamese society where nearly 60 percent of the population are under 30 years old, the country is an important market for international consumer goods. For example, Vietnam has become the fastest growing market for Apple products.17 Being able to consume international goods and lifestyle is desirable, and local brands do not carry the same prestige or social status. Going to a local coffee shop or to street tea vendors, or even to the Highlands Coffee18 chain is not as ‘cool’ for the young urbanites as international franchises, like The Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf or the newly arrived Starbucks. Ironically, many of the local brands have become symbols of authenticity for outsiders visiting Vietnam. The Highlands Coffee, for instance, is the place for tourists seeking ‘local’ experience, while young Vietnamese look elsewhere for ‘global’ experience.

CONCERNS AND ANXIETIES

While chasing pleasures like fine dining, shopping, and traveling, the Hanoi middle class has also developed a number of common concerns. Poor quality products (especially food products imported from China) and imitation branded goods are emerging complaints, and because many middle class consumers no longer trust local retail outlets, they choose instead to travel abroad. Perhaps more importantly, the respondents listed traffic congestions, high levels of environmental pollution and street safety as growing worries. Concerns over daily inconvenience and safety suggest a growing sense of vulnerability. Members of the middle class need to share space with those who not only come from less privileged economic backgrounds but also who may even pose a threat to their lifestyle, such as those who sell ‘inhumane food’19

One respondent, a businessman, justified driving his car to work even though his office is not far from his home in the following way: “I don’t walk on the street. It’s too dusty. I carry my laptop to work and I don’t want to expose myself [to the dangers of robbery and traffic].”

This study’s focus on four different demographic groups revealed concerns characteristic for each separate group depending on their social positions and phases of life. Together, however, their anxieties and worries depict pressing problems in contemporary urban Vietnam.

For example, the quality of education is a common concern among university students and mid-career people whose children are about to begin university education. Environmental conditions, food safety and personal well-being are major worries for the mid-career group and to some extent the senior group. The senior group of respondents, even though appearing to be most optimistic and embracing of the positives of the changes, is unhappy with what they perceive as moral degradation in society, the lack of attention to moral education in schools and ‘worsening conditions of human relations’.

A senior respondent, who is an architect, said “The teachers now only teach the children how to be a craftsman, but not how to be a human.” (Bây giờ các thầy cô bây giờ chỉ dậy thế nào làm thợ chứ không dậy thế nào làm người). According to her, the role of education institutions should be reverse: morals should come first, and craftsmanship (knowledge and the technical skills) can be easily acquired at any age along the way. Many from mid- and senior groups shared the opinion that the role of schools to shape the morals of the young should begin early. They believe that deterioration of social relations is linked to the ‘blind acceptance’ of the industrial, western values that globalization has brought. They complain about the young paying less and less respect to the elders as well as to tradition. The perception that there is a loosening of morals, along with changes in the hierarchies of social roles are also a source of discontent among the mid-career group. Conversely, young professionals enjoy more freedom and also greater autonomy in their professional and private life. Many of them complain that this freedom is not to be taken for granted, and they need to keep convincing the elder generation that they are capable of making their own decisions.

Student respondents express their disappointment with the quality of teaching, describing their university experience thus: “It’s just a diploma factory, we don’t get to learn that much”. Many of the students display little interest in social issues and even little motivation in their own career planning. Their disillusionment with education correlates to their attitudes towards employment opportunities. A marketing student believes that : “Who you know matters more than what you know.” However, majority of them do acknowledge that they, being Hanoi middle class, are privileged, but at the same time also less motivated than their classmates from the countryside or in less advantaged economic position who achieve things through hard work and personal capability.

In a nutshell, the Hanoi urban middle class is increasingly concerned about the quality, rather than quantity, of food and consumer goods, having left behind the days when food and basic products were rationed. The new Hanoi middle class has higher expectations and its concerns have expanded from the quality of tangibles like products, food, goods, clothes to also include the quality of ‘intangibles’ such as services, education, the environment or social relations. The negative impact of social networks, nepotism and corruption was a common concern for all the respondents. On that score, the Hanoi urban class increasingly resembles the urban middle class found elsewhere in terms of lifestyle, life concerns and social attitudes. There are, however, some clear distinctions, mostly related to the political context, sense of social group identity and responsibility that will be further discussed in this project. 20

CONCLUSION

Vietnam has been undergoing major transitions. Continuities of past political and social orders are mixed with new economic changes, and globalization is likely to increase, not lessen, the complexities. While understanding of the Vietnamese middle class remains an ongoing project, its re-emergence can no longer be denied. Moreover, despite contradictions in the country’s political ideology, the middle class and its consumer power are reinforcing Vietnam’s re-orientation towards the market economy. In other words, the revival of the middle class, notwithstanding the latent class distinction, means that Vietnam is no longer a socialist society in its original definition. New criteria, be it wealth, lifestyle models, education, occupation, are reinforcing class distinction and social stratification while multiple intersecting social hierarchies are competing for individual identity.

To sum up, the current dynamics of the developing middle class in Vietnam are important for the following reasons:

(1) The emergence of the middle class and its consumerist habits reflects Vietnam’s economic and social departure from socialism, and;

(2) Middle class lifestyles exemplify the state’s efforts to embrace globalization. Consumption patterns of the middle class may be regarded as a marker of economic freedom and identity-creation in the post-đổi mới era. These are influenced by globalization trends and global brands and are also determined by complex attitudes towards public goods such as education, healthcare, traffic quality, and environmental and public security services.

About the author:
* Huong Le Thu is ISEAS Visiting Fellow. She can be contacted at: le_thu_huong@iseas.edu.sg

Source:
This article was published by ISEAS as ISEAS Perspective Number 8 (PDF).

Notes:
1. The author thanks Terence Chong for his helpful comments.
2. http://www.iseas.edu.sg/project-the-social-portrait-of-the-vietnamese-urban-middle-class.cfm
3. Four demographic groups were selected, namely: university students, early career, mid-career and senior career. Each focus group involved from eight to twelve people to assure quality of discussion with each session lasting two to two and half hours. Additionally, twelve individual interviews were conducted with different demographic groups separately, each lasting from one hour to one and half hour. My samples had a good cross- section representation with different professionals ranging from students of different majors, school teachers, medical doctors and nurses, clerks, soldiers, bankers, business people, artists, self-employed start-up, scholars, architects, university staff, librarians, NGO workers, and retirees etc.
4. “Money and Happiness”, The Economist, 30 October, 2014: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/10/daily-chart- 20?zid=295&ah=0bca374e65f2354d553956ea65f756e0
5. “Emerging and Developing Economies Much More Optimistic than Rich Countries about the Future”, Pew Research Global Attitudes Project: http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/10/09/emerging-and-developing- economies-much-more-optimistic-than-rich-countries-about-the-future/
6. UNDP Human Development Report 2014: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country- notes/VNM.pdf
7. “Vietnam Middle Class the Fastest Growing in Southeast Asia”, Vietnam Briefing, 22 January 2014: http://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnams-middle-class-fastest-growing-southeast-asia.html/
8. Population Pyramid of the World 1950-2100: http://populationpyramid.net/viet-nam/2020/
9. In early 2000s the number of population in the cities was less than 24%, today it is estimated at 34%; the World Bank expects that by 2020 it will be over 45%.
10. According to the different sources the estimations of growth are even higher. The OECD standard of daily spendings ranging from 10-100 USD qualifies one to be in the middle class. In 2012 there are reportedly 8 million belonging to the middle class, by 2020 the number is expected to reach 44 million and by 2030 it will reach 95 million. “Tầng lớp trung lưu đang gia tăng nhanh tại Việt Nam” http://www.dna.com.vn/vi/tin-tuc- thuong-hieu/tin-trong-nuoc/tang-lop-trung-luu-dang-gia-tang-nhanh-tai-viet-nam-/
11. Well Begun, Not Yet Done: Vietnam’s Remarkable Progress on Poverty Reduction and Emerging Challenges. The World Bank in Vietnam, Hanoi, 2012.
12. Trần Thanh Hương 2008. “Tìm Hiệu Qủa Thinh Hình Thành Giai Cấp Tư Sản Việt Nam”, Nghiên Cứu Lịch Sử 11&12, 93-97.
13. Taking into consideration the different contexts between the North and the South, by 1986 when the đổi mới reforms took place, the North was under socialism from 1954 while the South – since 1975.
14. Of course, further distinction between the lower or upper middle class could determined by such details as: location and size of the property, or type of the vehicle, whether it is a car or a scooter and of which brand etc.
15. Ann Marie Leshkowich. “Finances, Family, Fashion, Fitness and… Freedom? The Changing Lives of Urban Middle-Class Vietnamese Women” in: Van Nguyen-Marshall et al. 2012 P. 97
16. Many members of the urban middle class recently avoided or even boycotted Chinese food products. This was because of the high rate of unsafe products, multiple food scandals and at the time of the study- tensions over the South China Sea.
17. “Vietnam’s Now Apple’s Fastest Growing Market”, TechInAsia, 25 April 2014: https://www.techinasia.com/vietnam-fastest-growth-in-vietnam/
18. Highlands Coffee, founded by an American Vietnamese in 1998, already has a ‘branded’ image locally, thus serving the purpose of expressing urban status.
19. This is a common term to describe food which has hazardous chemicals to either boost growth of vegetables or preserve the freshness of meat. It implies that the food sellers realize of the danger of the substance they add to the products but do so because of the profits they gain.
20. For the full analysis please refer to the upcoming paper: Huong LE THU “Vietnam’s Urban Middle Class: Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City Compared”, Trends in Southeast Asia. 2015.

The post The Middle Class In Hanoi: Vulnerability And Concerns – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Asked about the open letter of 47 US Senators to Iranian leaders, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Dr. Javad Zarif, responded that “in our view, this letter has no legal value and is mostly a propaganda ploy. It is very interesting that while negotiations are still in progress and while no agreement has been reached, some political pressure groups are so afraid even of the prospect of an agreement that they resort to unconventional methods, unprecedented in diplomatic history. This indicates that like Netanyahu, who considers peace as an existential threat, some are opposed to any agreement, regardless of its content.”

Zarif expressed astonishment that some members of US Congress find it appropriate to write to leaders of another country against their own President and administration. He pointed out that from reading the open letter, it seems that the authors not only do not understand international law, but are not fully cognizant of the nuances of their own Constitution when it comes to presidential powers in the conduct of foreign policy.

Foreign Minister Zarif added that “I should bring one important point to the attention of the authors and that is, the world is not the United States, and the conduct of inter-state relations is governed by international law, and not by US domestic law. The authors may not fully understand that in international law, governments represent the entirety of their respective states, are responsible for the conduct of foreign affairs, are required to fulfil the obligations they undertake with other states and may not invoke their internal law as justification for failure to perform their international obligations.”

The Iranian Foreign Minister added that “change of administration does not in any way relieve the next administration from international obligations undertaken by its predecessor in a possible agreement about Iran’s peaceful nuclear program.” He continued “I wish to enlighten the authors that if the next administration revokes any agreement with ‘the stroke of a pen,’ as they boast, it will have simply committed a blatant violation of international law.” He emphasized that if the current negotiation with P5+1 result in a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, it will not be a bilateral agreement between Iran and the US, but rather one that will be concluded with the participation of five other countries, including all permanent members of the Security Council, and will also be endorsed by a Security Council resolution.

Zarif expressed the hope that his comments “may enrich the knowledge of the authors to recognize that according to international law, Congress may not ‘modify the terms of the agreement at any time’ as they claim, and if Congress adopts any measure to impede its implementation, it will have committed a material breach of US obligations.”

The Foreign Minister also informed the authors that majority of US international agreements in recent decades are in fact what the signatories describe as “mere executive agreements” and not treaties ratified by the Senate. He reminded them that “their letter in fact undermines the credibility of thousands of such ‘mere executive agreements’ that have been or will be entered into by the US with various other governments.”

Zarif concluded by stating that “the Islamic Republic of Iran has entered these negotiations in good faith and with the political will to reach an agreement, and it is imperative for our counterparts to prove similar good faith and political will in order to make an agreement possible.”

The post Iran’s Foreign Minister Responds To US Senators’ Letter appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Deep-seated income inequalities and poverty are driving xenophobic violence in South Africa, which is targeting in particular shops owned by foreign nationals.

By Tendaishe Tlou*

South Africa is increasingly becoming a nation divided among itself; increasingly characterized by violence, as epitomized by another round of looting of foreign national-owned shops in January 2015. Since 2008, the country has plunged into a pervasive and recurrent xenophobic campaign, instilling fear in foreigners – popularly referred to as ‘makwerekwere’ – particularly in Gauteng and Cape Town. Precarious conditions of poverty, unemployment, poor service delivery, increasing living costs and deep-seated economic inequalities are driving xenophobia which has contributed to the outbreak of violent looting.

The frustration-aggression theory, developed by Dollard (1939), asserted that it is intrinsic and innate in human beings that when deprived of their basic needs they become frustrated, which leads to aggressive behaviour. When the source of the frustration cannot be challenged, the aggression is displaced onto an innocent victim. Relative deprivation leads to the development of negative attitudes and behaviour towards the real or perceived sources of deprivation; namely, in the case of South Africa, foreigners who own shops that are much more profitable.

Xenophobia can be defined as a “hatred, dislike or fear of foreigners”; combining the Greek xenos (foreign) with phobos (dislike/fear). In South Africa, it has come to be understood as the often violent dislike of foreigners or “makwerekwere” in a bid to monopolize and control a certain valued resource, in this case economic wealth, at the expense of other groups. Xenophobia in South Africa can be explained by the increasing rate of socio-economic inequality in the country.

Apartheid entrenched economic inequality, yet the outcomes are seen through the violent looting of foreign national shops in Soweto and Alexandra-Gauteng in January 2015 and, most recently, in  Phillipe, Cape Town, in February. Given that the gap between rich and poor is rising exponentially, the looting and killing in Soweto are a constant reminder of the aggression that results from frustration and anger. In the context of South Africa, aggression is a result of peope’s perceptions that foreign nationals are preventing them from attaining their goals (Dollard, 1939). From colonialism and apartheid to the formation of the Black bourgeois, the Black majority has been constantly marginalized; as epitomized by the expansion of slums (shacks) and high density suburbs mostly populated by Black South Africans, Zimbabweans, Somalians, Ethiopians and other refugees.

Foreign nationals have become victims of circumstances in a state engulfed by deep socio-economic inequalities. The greatest scourge of xenophobic violence are confined to the margins of formal society, wherein foreign nationals compete with the poorest South Africans to eke out a menial living through ‘spaza shops’ and other small-medium enterprises. Therefore the best strategy to reduce competition and monopolize the market is to loot foreign-owned shops, leading foreigners to evacuate the area. Indeed, representatives of the Black business association in Soweto told the Minister for Small Businesses that foreigners must evacuate Black South African communities; allegedly for squeezing South Africans out of business.

It is now a pervasive belief in South Africa that economic resources are being exploited by foreign nationals, such that South Africans who are not benefiting have become so much aggrieved that they use aggressive xenophobic violence to air their frustration. In communities such as Diesploot, Alexandra and Soweto you can find foreign national-owned shops at every turn. These owners often giving customers groceries on credit and providing goods that are cheaper than the Black-owned shops; thereby fueling further frustration. In the context of South Africa, Dollard (1939) predicts that riots and revolutions are both caused by poorer and more deprived sections of society who express their bottled-up frustration and anger through violence.

The looting that started on the evening of 20 January 2015 in Gauteng and eventually spread to Phillipe, Cape Town in February was not mere criminality, but an organized xenophobic attack by South African business owners and the community. Community residents were tasked with the responsibility to commence targeted looting and then the business community would express their discontent during government reactionary meetings which they knew would follow. Were it not xenophobia, both foreign national- and local-owned shops should have been looted, and the local business owners should have supported rather than castigated their business colleagues by adamantly emphasizing that they should vacate townships; thereby the frustration-aggression theory.

Closely linked to socio-economic inequality is acute poverty. Slums are expanding due to plummeting standards of living, further driving xenophobic violence. The Black majority is residing in communities such as Soweto, where looting is rampant; leading to the hypothesis that poverty sparked the looting of foreign national-owned shops. Coupled with massive unemployment, youth poverty helps explain why young people spearheaded the looting. Juxtaposing the precarious living conditions of South Africans in Soweto and other high density communities and relatively stable livelihoods of foreign nationals in the same areas, poverty is a variable which confirms the insinuations of the frustration-aggression theory.

As foreign nationals in South Africa are relatively wealthy, drive affluent cars and live in brick houses, part of the looting was motivated by greed. According to Collier (2000), greed always results in conflict. It is difficult to pacify greed, which helps explain the cyclical nature of xenophobic looting since 2008 in South Africa. It is widely believed that resources are taken and controlled by a few people – namely, foreign nationals in South Africa – at the expense of the masses. Many people therefore participated in looting not because of poverty or inequality, but simply out of mere greed and an inability to want to share the country’s wealth.

Impact on the South African economy

Investors tend to avoid volatile countries; hence the impact of xenophobic violence on the South African economy is damaging. In the face of escalating crime, service delivery protests and the recent looting of foreign national’s shops, xenophobic violence only serves as catalyst for economic decline. South Africa is bound to experience economic decay, despite President Zuma’s efforts at the World Economic Forum to boost investor confidence in the country. South Africa is at a critical stage in its socio-economic development and citizen lawlessness will prove costly. The closure of shops and evacuation of foreigners from Black communities will also take a toll on the national economy, because South Africans who are employed in these shops will unquestionably lose their jobs. The violence that is apparently engulfing South Africa is similar to the instability which followed Chris Hani’s assassination in 1993 wherein the prominent economist Tony Twine lamented that “investment is falling like a stone…and this is bad news for an economy mired in a harsh recession” (The Citizen, 1993).

The closure of retail shops in Black communities will generate a negative ripple effect on producers due to a loss of customers. Foreign shop owners are contributing significantly to the national economy and it is the responsibility of the government to protect them. With an acute shortage of investors, these are the immediate registered investors South Africa has. The government and the civil society must take responsibility to educate its citizenry about the importance of foreigners in sustaining the economy, whilst at the same time curtailing socio-economic disparities, otherwise the effects will be detrimental sooner or later.

Tendaishe Tlou is a freelance researcher and writer specialising in human rights, environmental security, peace and governance issues. He holds a BSc (Honours) Degree in Peace and Governance with Bindura University of Science Education and a Post-graduate Certificate in Applied Conflict Transformation. He works with various NGOs and Government Ministries in Zimbabwe and South Africa. However, these are his personal views; no authors, NGOs, Universities or any other Institution must be held accountable for the arguments in this article.

References

• Collier,P (2000), ‘Greed and Grievance in Civil War’, The World Bank,USA.
• Dollard,J (1939), ‘Frustration and Aggression’, New Haven, Yale University.
• Gultang, J (1969), ‘Violence and Peace Research Journal’,Vol.6 no.3,University of Peace,USA.
• Global Campaign for Peace (2010), www.globalcampaignforpeace.infor.2010.
• Statistics South Africa (2015),2014 Human Development Report, Stats, SA,Johannesburg.
• The Citizen (1993), ‘Investment is dropping like a Stone, said Economist Tony Twine’, The Citizen 14-16 Apri,1993, Johannesburg.

The post Economic Wealth As Driver Of Xenophobia In South Africa – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) announced late Monday the release of Carrie Russell from a Japanese detention center.

“I’m thrilled that common sense has won the day and that Carrie is being released to her family,’’ Senator Wyden said. “I want to thank Ambassador Kennedy and her staff for working closely with our office and their Japanese counterparts to get her released.”

Japanese authorities took Ms. Russell into custody on Feb. 20 after she shipped herself medication as part of her prescribed treatment for attention deficit disorder.

Her family sent a letter of apology to the government of Japan, saying nobody meant to break Japanese law. It is illegal to bring prescription medicine with amphetamines into the country.

The post US Senator Wyden Announces Release Of Oregonian Carrie Russell appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Spain’s Minister for Home Affairs, Jorge Fernández Díaz, announced on Monday morning that Palamós Port will be declared an external Schengen border, thus becoming the first port facility under non-State ownership to be granted this status and meeting the commitment made by Jorge Fernández Díaz at the start of this legislature. He made this announcement at a meeting held with the Presidents of the Chambers of Commerce of Girona, Domènec Espadalé i Vergés; Palamós, Xavier Ribera Serra, and Sant Feliu de Guíxols, Joan Puig i Valls.

“The government has taken this positive decision to declare Palamós Port an external border of the signatory States of the Schengen Agreement, by means of a ministerial order”, confirmed Jorge Fernández Díaz during the course of the meeting, which included participation from the Government Delegate to Catalonia, Llanos de Luna; the sub-Government Delegate to Girona, Juan Manuel Sánchez-Bustamante; the Director-General of Ports of the Regional Government of Catalonia, Dolors Rodríguez; the Delegate for Serveis Territorials de Territori i Sostenibilitat of Girona, Josep Cortadellas, and the Mayor of Palamós, María Teresa Ferrés, as well as other public officials.

Subsequently, the Minister for Home Affairs visited the installations at Palamós Port accompanied by the Head of Police of Catalonia, Agustín Castro, and the Guardia Civil General in charge of the Region of Catalonia, Ángel Gozalo, among other public authorities.

Jorge Fernández Díaz highlighted that the declaration of Palamós Port as part of the Schengen area represents “an effort on the part of the government to provide suitable installations for the effective control of people and goods, as well as in the provision of personnel from the State law enforcement agencies, when necessary on operational grounds”.

The Minister for Home Affairs also pointed out that said effort “shows the government’s interest in undertaking initiatives that seek to improve the quality of life and well-being of its citizens, in this case those of Girona”. The Minister for Home Affairs also highlighted the efforts made by the public authorities and institutions involved that have made this initiative possible by showing that “when we work together, our citizens are always the first to benefit from this”.

In this regard, Jorge Fernández Díaz underlined that the status of the port in Girona as an external Schengen border means that, as well as the free movement of people originating from or with destination in signatory States of the Schengen Agreement, this port will now become an external border point for people originating from or with destination in non-signatory States, which will “increase the possibility of attracting tourism, thus increasing the economic activity of the province of Girona”.

It is noteworthy that Palamós Port is the second leading port for cruise ships in Catalonia, after Barcelona. “In 2014 alone, 34 cruise ships arrived at Palamós with a total volume of some 57,000 passengers”, recalled Jorge Fernández Díaz.

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The number of tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka went up 16.7 % to 165,541 in the month of February 2015, compared to February 2014 which was only 141,878, according to the latest figures released by the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA).

In the first two months of this year 321,787 tourists visited the island, an increase of 11.6 percent compared to the same period in 2014.

Arrivals from North America rose 23.0 percent to 6,750 in February and the arrivals form US rose 36.9 percent to 3,942 during the month.

Tourist arrivals from Western Europe reached 60,777 during the month, a 15.5 percent increase from the 52,635 tourists arrived in the same month last year.

Tourist arrivals from East Asia increased 67.2 percent as 41,907 visited the country compared to the 25,065 visited in February 2014. Arrivals from China compared to last year increased 165.8 percent with the arrival of 27,425 visitors.

Arrivals from South Asia increased by 11.7 percent with 29,011 tourists visiting the island in February 2015. Of those arrived from South Asia, 19,999were from India corresponding to an increase of 14.1 percent.

Sri Lanka exceeded its target of 1.5 million tourist arrivals last year and earned US$ 2.206 billion from tourism.

The Tourism Authority has set a target of 2 million tourist arrivals this year and 2.5 million by 2016.

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The Spanish Senate should scrap a flawed draft law on public security that would undermine rights protections, Human Rights Watch said. The bill, approved by the lower house of Parliament, includes provisions that infringe on the rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, unjustifiably penalize vulnerable groups, and violate international norms on asylum. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill on March 10, 2015.

“Although it’s better than the government’s original draft, the legislation still undermines fundamental rights in myriad ways,” said Judith Sunderland, senior Western Europe researcher at Human Rights Watch. “The Senate should take this last chance to ensure that the Spanish government doesn’t erode basic rights and freedoms in Spain.”

The draft Law on Public Security would limit when and where protests may take place, and impose steep fines on those who hold spontaneous protests. Provisions that impose similarly high fines for “lack of respect” for law enforcement officers, would stifle freedom of speech. In addition the bill takes a punitive approach to the homeless, sex workers, and people who use drugs.

When governments introduce measures that will restrict human rights and in particular that have a regressive impact, they have an obligation to justify their necessity. The Spanish government has failed to make a convincing case that the powers it is seeking to introduce are necessary and can justify limiting basic civil and political rights, Human Rights Watch said.

The government is also trying to use the bill to formalize an ongoing but unlawful practice of summarily returning migrants, including people who might be asylum seekers, from Spain’s enclaves in North Africa.

Despite some improvements following significant criticism from nongovernmental organizations and authoritative national and international rights bodies, the bill retains serious flaws that contradict international human rights standards, Human Rights Watch said. On February 23, a group of UN human rights experts called on Spain to reject the “gag law,” as opposition groups call the bill, as a threat to “individuals’ fundamental rights and freedoms.”

Details of problematic provisions

Problematic provisions relating to the right to peaceful assembly include:

• Fines up to 600 euros for not notifying authorities in advance of meetings or demonstrations in public areas, even if there is no harm to people or property or disturbance of the public order;
• Fines up to 600 euros for not following the itinerary approved or imposed by authorities during a demonstration, even when the result is only minor disturbances;
• Fines up to 30,000 euros for serious disturbance of public safety during demonstrations in front of Congress, the Senate, or regional legislative assemblies, even when not in session. The bill stipulates that the fines will apply unless the “serious disturbance” constitutes a criminal offense liable to prosecution. Activists are concerned that the measure is intended to discourage protests that target national and regional legislative bodies per se. Instead, authorities should facilitate demonstrations within sight and sound of the demonstration’s object and target audience;
• Fines up to 30,000 euros for obstructing any public authority or employee enforcing compliance with agreements or administrative or judicial resolutions, if the action does not constitute a crime. This provision appears tailor-made to suppress organized gatherings to prevent evictions for mortgage default and rent arrears. Groups such as the Platform for Mortgage Victims and Stop Desahucios (evictions) regularly organize gatherings intended to block forcible evictions, contending that they violate the right to adequate housing; and
• Fines up to 600,000 euros for holding spontaneous meetings or demonstrations, i.e. without notification, in or “in the proximity of” infrastructures or facilities that provide basic services, including transportation hubs, nuclear plants and refineries, utilities installations, and telecommunications infrastructure, when the gatherings created a risk to people. Such meetings or demonstrations leading to a “serious interference” with the basic service could be subject to fines of up to 30,000 euros. This broad restriction on where demonstrations may take place could effectively be used to put an end to many peaceful protests.

The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly affirmed that the prior notification requirement should not constitute an obstacle to the right to peaceful assembly, and has emphasized that authorities should show tolerance toward peaceful gatherings if freedom of assembly is not to be deprived of all substance. The United Nations special rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association, Maina Kiaia, has recommended to all countries that spontaneous assemblies should be legal.

The draft law would also interfere disproportionately with the right to freedom of expression with:

• Fines up to 30,000 euros for “unauthorized use of images or personal or professional information about authorities or law enforcement officers that would endanger their safety or that of protected areas or place at risk the success of an operation.” The broad criteria make it likely that the provision could be used against photojournalists and ordinary citizens who record or publish photos or video of public operations and interventions. There is serious concern that the threat of these fines will lead to self-censorship to the detriment of accountability for abusive behavior such as excessive use of force by law enforcement officers; and
• Fines of up to 600 euros for “lack of respect and consideration of a member of security forces during the exercise of his duties…when this behavior does not constitute a crime.”

The European Court of Human Rights considers that public authorities, including law enforcement officers, must accept a certain level of criticism, even offensive insults. In the case of Thoirgerson v. Iceland, for example, the Court ruled that calling the police “beasts in uniform” was protected speech and that a defamation conviction on those grounds was capable of discouraging open discussion of matters of public interest and was neither proportionate nor necessary.

The bill would make life even harder for marginalized people living and working on the streets, with a punitive approach that undermines social inclusion and a range of basic human rights:

• Individuals who lead to the vaguely defined “degradation” (“deslucimiento”) of public property could be fined up to 600 euros. Nongovernmental organizations in Spain are worried this could lead to homeless people being fined for sleeping on a park bench or sitting on a street corner;
•  The bill also removes the possibility of suspending the existing fine of up to 30,000 euros for public consumption or possession of illegal drugs or leaving drug use equipment in a public place. Currently the fine can be suspended if the individual enters a rehabilitation program. But under the bill only those under 18 will have this option. Nongovernmental organizations in Spain say that the possibility of suspending the fine has proven effective in helping people who use drugs get services and that the change will have a regressive effect; and
• Those who seek out or accept paid sexual services in public areas near where children congregate, such as playgrounds or schools, could be fined up to 30,000 euros. Sex workers in these areas would be subject to fines if they ignore a police warning. Regulation of sex work is within the government’s discretion, but measures need to respect human rights standards, should not place sex workers at risk, and need to be precisely and narrowly formulated so they cannot be abused to facilitate harassment and discrimination. The wording is vague enough to allow just that.

The bill, though amended to improve safeguards, places migrants and asylum seekers at risk by allowing the summary return to Morocco of anyone caught attempting to cross over the fences along the enclave borders in a group. National and international human rights groups, including Human Rights Watch, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, and the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights have all called on the Spanish parliament to reject this measure.

The last-minute amendment stipulates that returns must comply with international norms and enshrines in law the government’s initiative to create “asylum offices” at the enclave borders, as well as its pledge to draw up clear protocols for Spanish security forces at these borders. While positive, these measures must be appropriately implemented to ensure that all those seeking protection have the chance to do so, Human Rights Watch said. The government should not presume that no one attempting to cross the fence has a protection claim.

Although the asylum offices will be inaugurated officially before the end of March, the one in Melilla has been operating since September. According to CEAR, Spain’s main refugee organization, as of mid-February 440 people had submitted applications, all of them Syrians. In order to access the Spanish side, individuals must first go through official Moroccan exit checkpoints. The majority of those who attempt to enter the enclaves by climbing the fences are sub-Saharan Africans, usually in large groups to evade Moroccan security forces. There remain serious concerns that many people, including those wishing to apply for international protection, will resort to the fences because they are unable to access the official border posts.

The post Call For Spain To Reject ‘Flawed’ Public Security Bill appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Abdul Nasir Khan

Pakistan March 7 scored its third consecutive and biggest victory of the International Cricket Council (ICC) Cricket World Cup 2015, beating favourite South Africa by 29 runs.

Performances by wicketkeeper-batsman Sarfraz Ahmed and left-hander pacers Rahat Ali, Mohammad Irfan and Wahab Riaz almost ensured Pakistan’s entry into the Super 8 round.

Sarfraz competed in his first World Cup match, replacing Nasir Jamshed. He scored 49 runs and dismissed six African batsmen behind the stamps, tying Adam Gilchrist’s World Cup match record.

South Africa won the toss and elected to field first. Pakistan opened the game with Sarfraz and Ahmed Shehzad, who gave Pakistan its best start of the World Cup with 30 runs.

Shehzad got out at 18 runs, while Sarfraz hit 49 after adding another 62-run second wicket partnership with Younus Khan (37).

Skipper Misbah-ul-Haq (56) once again proved his class and hit his third and fourth consecutive half-centuries in five matches at this World Cup. He also scored his 5,000th One-Day International runs without scoring a century, but his total includes 42 fifties.

Pakistan garnered 222 runs as rain shortened the match to 47 overs. The Duckworth/Lewis method set a 232-run target for the Proteas to win the match.

Pakistan’s left-handed pacers limited the South African side to 202 runs in 33.3 overs.

Only captain AB de Villiers performed well, hitting 77 runs. Pakistan’s Ali, Irfan and Riaz shared three wickets each, while Sohail Khan bagged one but crucial wicket of de Villiers.

Sarfraz was declared player of the match.

South Africa and Pakistan both have six points in Pool B after five matches and are in solid position to reach the quarter-finals. India tops the pool with eight points, while Ireland is holding down fourth place, a step higher than the West Indies.

Pakistan plays its last Pool match against Ireland March 15.

New Zealand beats Afghanistan

Meanwhile, New Zealand defeated Afghanistan by six wickets in a Pool A match March 8 in Napier, New Zealand.

Batting first, Afghanistan set an easy target of 187 runs in 50 overs. Najibullah Zadran was top Afghan scorer with 56 runs, while Samiullah Shinwari added 54 runs to the Afghan total.

Daniel Vettori claimed four wickets for 18 runs, while Trent Boult bagged three and Corey Anderson took two wickets for New Zealand.

The Kiwis achieved the target in the 34th over with six wickets in hand. Martin Guptill was the top scorer with 57 runs. Vettori was named player of the match.

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1. The “job creators” are CEOs, corporations, and the rich, whose taxes must be low in order to induce them to create more jobs. Rubbish. The real job creators are the vast middle class and the poor, whose spending induces businesses to create jobs. Which is why raising the minimum wage, extending overtime protection, enlarging the Earned Income Tax Credit, and reducing middle-class taxes are all necessary.

2. The critical choice is between the “free market” or “government.” Baloney. The free market doesn’t exist in nature. It’s created and enforced by government. And all the ongoing decisions about how it’s organized – what gets patent protection and for how long (the human genome?), who can declare bankruptcy (corporations? homeowners? student debtors?), what contracts are fraudulent (insider trading?) or coercive (predatory loans? mandatory arbitration?), and how much market power is excessive (Comcast and Time Warner?) – depend on government.

3. We should worry most about the size of government. Wrong. We should worry about who government is for. When big money from giant corporations and Wall Street inundate our politics, all decisions relating to #1 and #2 above become rigged against average working Americans.

Please take a look at our video, and share.

The post The 3 Biggest Myths Blinding Us To The Economic Truth – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Burmese police should end their crackdown on student protests and investigate officers responsible for the use of excessive force against protesters, said Human Rights Watch.

On March 10, 2015, police backed by local plainclothes police auxiliaries with batons violently dispersed an estimated 200 student demonstrators near the town of Letpadan in Pegu region, north of the commercial capital, Rangoon. The media reported that violence broke out between the students and police involving student demonstrators who attempted to breach a police barricade blocking their way towards Rangoon. Police arrested a large number of students, Buddhist monks, and local residents deemed to be supporting the students.

“The savage beating of students by police and plainclothes thugs marks an ugly return to the street violence of military rule,” said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “The government needs to rein in abusive police, disband unaccountable auxiliaries, and permit peaceful demonstrations.”

The manner in which the police cracked down on student demonstrators, and use of local police auxiliaries to search for and apprehend students suggests a disturbing return to past unlawful tactics of Burma’s military governments, Human Rights Watch said.

The protests arose after months of escalating tensions between student unions across the country and the Ministry of Education over a draft national education bill. Student leaders contend that students were insufficiently consulted about the content of the bill and that officials have disregarded their suggestions for a more equitable and inclusive education system. Despite efforts by some government officials to mediate, the lack of a resolution of the disagreements led a number of student groups throughout Burma to stage marches from regional centers towards Rangoon.

During the first week of March, police stopped the Letpadan group from advancing further south towards Rangoon. However, authorities gave students assurances that on March 10 at 11a.m. they would be permitted to proceed to Rangoon in small groups. The media reported that students were granted passage from the area and that they believe police and auxiliaries lay in wait for them as they traveled south towards Rangoon where most of the arrests occurred.

The police had recently used unnecessary force against student protesters, Human Rights Watch said. On March 5, police backed by alleged members of the infamous Swan Arr Shin (“Masters of Force”) auxiliary, many wearing red armbands stenciled with the Burmese word for “duty,” violently assaulted students and activists who had assembled outside Rangoon’s city hall to express solidarity with the Letpadan student group. Police arrested eight people, including students and members of the prominent 88 Generation Peace and Open Society group of former political prisoners. All were freed early next morning, but were informed by police that they could face charges for violating the Peaceful Assembly Law. The use of police auxiliaries to disperse demonstrators last occurred during the violent crackdown on a Buddhist monk-led protest in Rangoon in 2007.

The authorities have used Burma’s seriously flawed Peaceful Assembly Law, which requires local government approval for any gathering, to intimidate student protests, many of which occur without prior approval.

Human Rights Watch said the government should investigate and prosecute as appropriate anyone responsible for the excessive use of force. The United Nations Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearms by Law Enforcement Officials provides that officials acting in a law enforcement capacity “shall, as far as possible, apply non-violent means before resorting to the use of force.” Whenever the use of force is unavoidable, security forces shall “[e]xercise restraint in such use and act in proportion to the seriousness of the offence and the legitimate objective to be achieved.”

The Burmese police force has long been implicated in serious human rights violations and the failure to protect populations at risk. The 2012 violence in Arakan State against the Rohingya Muslim community displaced over 130,000 mostly Rohingya residents. During anti-Muslim violence throughout Burma since then, the police have not effectively intervened and at times have actively participated in the violence. In 2013, the European Union funded a project to assist in the transformation of the Burmese police to ensure more rights-respecting crowd control and community policing.

“The European Union and others should roundly condemn this police violence and recalibrate their support for the Burmese government if it fails to protect the right to peaceful protest,” Adams said. “Burma’s reforms are looking increasingly shaky day by day.”

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Each year, millions of people lose billions of dollars in NCAA March Madness basketball pools. Still, most return the following year for another pummeling.

But flipping a coin yields better results than carefully selecting brackets, said Dae Hee Kwak, assistant professor of sport management at the University of Michigan School of Kinesiology.

“I completed my own (informal) bracket alongside our study by literally flipping a coin 63 times,” Kwak said. “I wanted to see if this outperformed the hard thought-out selections made by the study participants in our mock tournament. I did three sets of that and my average scores were better than the average of study participants.”

In his newly published study in the Journal of Gambling Studies, Kwak wanted to understand why so many losing March Madness players returned the following year for more punishment. A third of the population–more than 100 million hoop hopefuls–partake in betting brackets during the three-week men’s college basketball tournament.

Winning odds are insanely low: one in 128 billion for 63 perfect game predictions–far below that of a winning lottery ticket. Last year, Warren Buffet offered $1 billion for a perfect winning bracket, but the highest scoring known bracket among ESPN.com subscribers was still 18 games off.

For all the hype, research and time taken to make the oh-so-careful selections there’s scant evidence that knowledge of the game makes any difference at all in bracket performance.

“A grandmother who’s never seen a game has a similar chance of doing as well as her grandson who spends eight hours a day watching and researching basketball,” Kwak said.

So, why play if the chances of winning are so low? Why spend so much time researching and selecting teams when it’s basically pointless in terms of increasing your chance of winning?

Because that’s not how players see it, Kwak said. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.

It’s related to the illusion of control theory and overestimation. The same holds true for selecting lottery numbers and other sports-betting pools such as fantasy football leagues.

During 2012 March Madness, when Kwak did his informal coin flip, he conducted two studies of mock tournaments. They controlled for age, game knowledge, bracket experience and gender. The first study showed that players who selected their own brackets showed more confidence in winning than those who didn’t.

The second showed that players with high confidence were willing to bet up to 2.6 times as much as players with low confidence, but that high confidence didn’t translate into winning performance. In other words, they bet more and if they lost, they lost more.

But, those high-confidence, high-betting (and high-losing) people are the same people most likely to keep playing year after year because high confidence drives winning expectations, which drives the greatest enjoyment, Kwak said.

“This is why it makes so much sense for each company to brand their own bracket and allow people to do their own selections and market these very heavily,” he said. “That’s what makes March Madness so much fun.

“The person who knows absolutely nothing about the game and doesn’t care enough to even make their own selections has the same chance of winning as the basketball fanatic who spends hours on research.”

The post March Madness Brackets: Flipping A Coin Is Best Bet appeared first on Eurasia Review.

On Tuesdayin Strasbourg, the Latvian Foreign Ministry’s Parliamentary State Secretary for European Affairs, Zanda Kalniņa-Lukaševica, participated in the European Parliament debates on bringing western Balkan countries (Montenegro, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo) closer to the European Union (EU), supporting the perspective that this process of integration is a chance to improve judicial systems and the economic situation in these countries, as well as contributing to a stable environment for EU neighbours in the region.

Zanda Kalniņa-Lukaševica emphasised that bringing countries closer to the EU in the process of EU integration also simultaneously impels a speeding of necessary reforms, reinforcement of the rule of law, and amongst other things, greater trust for the law enforcement authorities and the fight against corruption, while also developing the economy, and facilitating societal integration. Bringing countries closer to the EU increases stability and security in Europe as a whole, reducing the chances of conflict, and combatting illegal migration and organised crime.

Participating in the debate on behalf of the Council of the EU, the Parliamentary State Secretary positively evaluated what Montenegro has achieved and said that during the time of Latvia’s EU Presidency will continue the accession negotiations on opening new chapters.

The Council was pleased with the accomplishments made by the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia in bringing its legal system closer to the EU, while at the same time, it emphasised the need for political will to implement the reforms.

Accession talks with Serbia were formally launched in January 2014 but in order to open talks on the first chapters, it is necessary to see forward movement in the dialogue on the normalisation of relations with Kosovo. In the near future, the EU plans to conclude a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with Kosovo.

This EU parliamentary discussion takes place in advance of Wednesday’s vote on resolutions which assess progress over the past year in EU integration for these four western Balkan countries. The European Commission prepares annual progress reports for EU candidate countries and potential candidates that are then talked over, both at the European Council and at the European Parliament.

Each month the European Parliament meets in four day plenary sessions (from Monday to Thursday) in Strasbourg. Once a month, the European Parliament meets in an extra one day session in Brussels.

The post Bringing Western Balkan Countries Closer To EU Increases Europe’s Stability And Security in Europe appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Sinisa Jakov Marusic

Macedonia’s opposition Social Democrat leader, Zoran Zaev, on Tuesday called on the government to quit immediately after releasing new conversations between top officials of the ruling party about printing IDs, dispatching people across the country to vote, stealing election material – and even shutting down elevators so that elderly people cannot go to vote.

“This government has no more legitimacy,” he said. “This government is no longer the Macedonian government. The government of Gruevski must resign immediately, Public Prosecutor Marko Zvrlevski must resign immediately and the managing team of the [public broadcaster]Macedonian Radio and Television should resign immediately!”

“We will not allow the destabilization of Macedonia. Gruevski, it is over!” Zaev added.

“We demand the formation of a interim government with a mandate to set conditions for free and democratic elections in Macedonia and ensure complete separation of ruling parties from the institutions,” he continued.

The Social Democrats presented the latest material to several thousand people in the packed Universal Concert Hall in the centre of Skopje.

A large crowd outside, who could not get in, the hall followed the event on screens, while about 40,000 people watched live streaming of the event aired by Alsat TV.

One conversation featured the voices of secret police chief Saso Mijalkov and Transport Minister Mile Janakieski plotting to steal sealed electoral material between two rounds of an election.

Another, about printing ID cards, featured the Interior Minister, Gordana Jankulovska.

Tapes also concern conversations about dispatching fake voters across Macedonia, using dead voters’ names for voting as well as confessions by the Interior and Finance Ministers that what the party is doing “is not right”.

Others feature Transport Minister Mile Janakieski discussing how to prevent elderly people from voting on election day by instructing people from the power grid operator to cut the power to tall buildings so that their elevators do not work.

Jankuloska’s voice is heard arranging revenge on a certain person involved in the elections. “The minute he makes a mistake he will be fired,” Jankuloska says. Her interlocutor adds: “We should burn his restaurant”.

Zaev on Tuesday issued a call for a “public, unbiased legal investigation [into the material] with the participation of the international community.” Macedonia needed a strong prosecutor, he added, like the Italian, Giovanni Falcone, who took on the Sicilian mafia.

“Our security system has been shattered, all vital institutions are controled by a few people. The entire country works for those few people,” the Social Democrat presidential candidate in the 2014 elections, Stevo Pendarovski, said.

“In Macedonia there is a dictatorship and the Macedonian people are against them. We have a well organized regime. We also an need organized democratic structure to oppose this,” he added.

“Macedonia has never faced a greater challenge… The regime is on its knees but it is not defeated,” he continued.

Other conversations showed the manipulation of elections involving the voting of army and police officials, and ministers arranging plane transport for VMRO DPMNE voters from the diaspora.

“This is a land of injustice where Nikola Gruevski and a few people around him rule and work for their own personal interests. We heard them in the tapes calling themselves criminals. We have filed criminal charges for all the crime allegations contained in the tapes but we do not expect legal resolution, at least not at the moment,” the Social Democrats’ secretary general, Oliver Spasovski, said.

Other tapes indicated use of pressure on employees in the public sector, including threats to fire them.

The opposition also presented a alleged taped conversation between secret police chief Saso Mijalkov and Transport Minister Mile Janakieski, which indicated that the main election HQ of the ruling party was located in the Transport Ministry.

Vlatko Mijalkov, a cousin of Gruevski, and Mile Janakieski, could be heard discussing how to put pressure people in public institutions to vote for the ruling party – and get them to procure lists of 20 more voters for the party.

“We must work in the institutions,” the voice of Mijalkov says, to which Janakieski replies that he had already done so in the bigger public enterprises.

One tape concerned a discussion of financial revenge on the family of the late pop singer Tose Proeski who died in a car crash in Croatia in 2007 at the age of 26.

Minister Mile Janakieski sounded angry that the sympathies of Proeski’s family were not with the ruling party and called Culture Minister Elizabeta Kanceska Milevska to tell her to scrap the state aid that the family has been receiving.

“We should expel her from work, we should stop giving them 3,000 euro and close the museum [of Proeski in Krusevo]. What do you say?” Janakieski asks.

Social Democrat Vice President Radmila Sekerinska said the revelations had alarmed many people who could have not dreamed that such things were possible.

“But the truth has also freed us from the fake expectation that the evil will leave on its own. We know now that this is not the case. The truth gave us responsibility to look forward,” she said.

“We are waging this battle and ask for support so that power becomes responsibility again… so that Macedonia starts speaking freely, so that the journalists can work freely and we [can] decide freely,” she said.

“Macedonia must become a country where the rule of law is in force and where surveillance is an exception and not the rule. We do not want ministers who will swear each day about their good intentions but a government that will show those intentions each day through action,” she added.

Zaev also accused Gruevski of plotting to frame him for alleged taking cash bribes “in the same way that Ljube Boskoski was framed”.

In 2011, a court in Skopje jailed the politician for seven years for illegally financing his small party. However, the opposition has since revealed tapes alleging that he was framed by the secret police chief, Mijalkov.

The opposition began revealing its stash of wiretapped conversations on February 9. Zaev said the government had wiretapped over 20,000 people in the country of 2 million. He said the eavesdropping had been orchestrated by Prime Minister Gruevski and Mijalkov.

Gruevski has denied the allegations, insisting that the opposition obtained the material from unnamed “foreign secret services”.

Gruevski and other ministers have not denied the authenticity of the published tapes, however, and have refused to comment on their content.

The post Macedonia Opposition Reveals More Evidence Of Election Fraud appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By P.K. Abdul Ghafour

Saudi Arabia is trying to minimize the impact of plunging oil prices on its economy, said Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman on Tuesday while emphasizing his government’s plan to develop a more diversified economy.

“The low prices witnessed by the oil market are having an effect on the Kingdom’s income. However, we are working toward minimizing the impact on development,” the king said in his first major speech since acceding to the throne on Jan. 23.

King Salman told government officials and other dignitaries that the search for new deposits of oil, gas and other natural resources in the Kingdom would continue. “High petrol prices during the past few years have had a positive effect on the national economy and in the development of projects,” the king said.

But the plunge in oil prices has emphasized the need for economic alternatives, and King Salman said the Kingdom’s future economy “will be based on a number of foundations,” with a growing number of small and medium enterprises.

“The next few years will be full of important accomplishments aimed at emphasizing the role of the industry and the service sectors in the national economy.”

King Salman emphasized that he would work for ensuring justice for all citizens and give them opportunities to realize their dreams and aspirations.

“I am deeply concerned about every citizen in the country and every part of our beloved nation and all of tem will receive my care and support. There will not be any discrimination between citizens and regions,” he told senior princes, ministers, governors, Shoura members, top military commanders, the grand mufti, Islamic scholars, top editors and other dignitaries at his palace in Riyadh.
King Salman urged Saudis to stand united. “I would like to reaffirm my desire to challenge the causes of differences and reasons of division and end social classifications that hurt national unity. All citizens are equal in rights and duties,” he said.

King Salman stressed the role of media in enabling the public to express their opinion, and spreading facts without causing division and conflicts in society. “The media should be a means for strengthening national unity and boosting development.”

He said Saudi Arabia would continue its efforts to achieve comprehensive, integrated and balanced development for all regions. “Ever since the Kingdom’s founder, the government has been making continuous efforts for development and modernization, without deviating from religious principles and social values while protecting the rights of all citizens.”

He said he had instructed the Council for Political and Security Affairs and the Council for Economic and Development Affairs to double their efforts to boost citizens’ prosperity. “We’ll not accept any leniency in this matter,” he added.

King Salman told all ministers and government officials that they have been appointed in their positions to serve citizens. “We have instructed that systems of monitoring agencies must be reviewed to strengthen their efficiency and performance in order to fight corruption, protect public wealth and punish culprits.”

The king reminded citizens of their great responsibility in safeguarding the country’s security and stability and urged them to stand united with the leadership and government against the country’s spiteful enemies.

He praised the Kingdom’s security forces for their efforts to foil many terrorist operations that targeted the nation, its citizens and vital installations. “I would like to inform all citizens and residents in this country that security is the responsibility of all and we’ll not allow anybody to tamper with our security and stability.”

King Salman said the government would support small and medium enterprises to achieve substantial growth and serve as a strong economic base for a large group of citizens.

Referring to the service sector, he said the government would adopt effective steps to improve health services to citizens all over the Kingdom. “Health centers as well as referral and specialized hospitals will be made accessible to all.”

Speaking about housing problem, the king said the government would find quick and practical solutions for all citizens to have suitable homes. He emphasized the need to integrate general and higher education and provide advanced infrastructure facilities for educational institutions. “Graduates of these institutions must meet the country’s development and job market requirements.”

King Salman reiterated the government’s efforts to provide higher education to Saudis by enabling them to study at reputable institutions inside and outside Saudi Arabia. “The nation has lots of expectations from you and you have to concentrate on gaining the best education,” the king told students.

Describing students as an investment for the nation’s future, he said the government would continue its efforts to provide them with suitable jobs to have a decent living. “It’s joint responsibility of public and private sectors to provide employment opportunities for citizens,” he added.

Addressing businessmen and businesswomen, the king said: “You are partners in progress and the state supports the private sector to enhance its contribution to the national economy. We have provided a lot of facilities and special rights for you and the state expects from you a lot. You have to come up with initiatives for job creation and social and economic services.”

King Salman instructed regional governors to receive citizens and listen to their problems and proposals for the nation’s progress and take steps to enhance their welfare and comfort.

He highlighted King Abdul Aziz’s efforts to unify the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and establish a modern state on the basis of Shariah.

“By the grace of God, your country is going ahead on the path of progress and growth, making solid steps, while adhering to the teachings of Shariah and preserving our culture and traditions.”

King Salman also spoke about the government’s efforts to enhance services for pilgrims who come for Haj and Umrah. “Since the time of its establishment, Saudi Arabia has been exerting all possible efforts in the service of Islam and to realize the hopes and aspirations of Muslims all over the world.” He said Saudi Arabia considered its services for the two holy mosques as an honor.

He also addressed the Kingdom’s armed and security forces and said the government would continue its efforts to strengthen their capabilities to defend the country’s security and stability.

“Our foreign policy is based on the teachings of Islam that calls for affection and peace as well as international charters and agreements…We reject interference in our internal affairs and we defend Arab and Islamic causes.”

He said Saudi Arabia has emphasized the right of the Palestinians to establish an independent state with Jerusalem as its capital. “We’ll continue our efforts to achieve Arab and Islamic unity and solidarity to improve relations and confront challenges. We’ll also work for global peace and stability.”

The king emphasized the Kingdom’s policy of settling differences through dialogue and peaceful means. He also referred to the Kingdom’s endeavors to fight terrorism and extremism in cooperation with the international community. Saudi Arabia will support efforts to protect environment and achieve sustainable development, he added.

The king began his speech by saying: “I have the pleasure to address you with a heart full of love and sincerity looking forward to a bright future for the country.” He concluded his speech by seeking God’s help to fulfill his responsibilities in the best manner.

The post Saudi Arabia: King Salman Says Stability, Jobs Top Priority appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera discussed the new government’s proposed constitutional reforms with British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond in London.

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office Monday said that Minister Samaraweera and Foreign Secretary Hammond had also discussed reinvigorating the UK-Sri Lanka relationship, and how the UK could support the new Sri Lankan Government’s reforms and to deliver on its commitments to the UN Human Rights Council.

“I am pleased to be able to welcome President Sirisena and Foreign Minister Samaraweera to the UK, in what is a clear expression of the renewed friendship between our two countries,” the Foreign Secretary said after the meeting.
“We have long and lasting ties with Sri Lanka, including through the Commonwealth, and can now reinvigorate this partnership and improve our links including in areas of trade, education and tourism,” Hammond said.

Hammond added that the UK looks forward to supporting the new Sri Lankan Government as it implements its planned reforms, and as it works towards building a more democratic and accountable government, that will help Sri Lanka grow into a stronger and more prosperous nation for all its people.

The British Foreign Secretary also particularly welcomed Sri Lanka’s engagement with the Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR).

He said the UK expects to see progress on Sri Lankan commitments to set up a credible domestic reconciliation and accountability processes ahead of the UN Human Rights Council in September 2015 and the publication of the report of the OHCHR Investigation on Sri Lanka.

Minister Samaraweera is in London accompanying the President Maithripala Sirisena to the Commonwealth Observance Day celebrations.

The post Sri Lanka Foreign Minister Discusses Proposed Constitutional Reforms With British Foreign Secretary appeared first on Eurasia Review.

For quite some time now, countries at the centre of the world — Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya and even Lebanon for that matter — have had their share of troubles and disturbances. Be it the Arab Spring or militant insurgency, the overall atmosphere in most countries of the region has been turbulent, to say the least.

However, right next to these countries, the Gulf states, in spite of all their internal and external problems, have enjoyed relative comfort. Partly due to the fact that the natives of Gulf tend to prefer political stability over chaos, and partly on account of the cash reserves that oil and hydrocarbons keep generating, the Gulf states have, by and large, kept insurgency and instability away from their respective territories.

Yet, this does not imply that life is a bed of roses for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In fact, of late, the GCC has been doing its share of research and brainstorming over security and diplomacy issues. As of now, the security calculations of Gulf countries are being radically shaken.

Security in GCC

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

By now, member-states of GCC have realized that USA, thus far their biggest ally, is nothing beyond a fair-weather friend. Furthermore, turmoil in states such as Egypt, Libya and most importantly, Yemen and Bahrain, has compelled GCC countries like Saudi Arabia to reconsider traditional security tactics and implement a new policy for this purpose.

One cannot entirely blame the Gulf states for this — Iranian influence is ever on the rise, and the sectarian divide in countries such as Syria and Bahrain is genuinely testing the collective resolve and intent of GCC.

However, whilst the GCC is now aware of the need of new security measures, it is still largely clueless about which measure to take and how to implement them. Saudi Arabia and its allies have realized that factors such as ISIS, Iranian dominance, the Assad regime in Syria are all the part of the problem and need to be addressed at the earliest, but the solutions are yet to be discovered. Western intervention, for example, is hardly a solution.

Plus, the ongoing issues in Yemen have added another dimension to the entire problem, because GCC’s southern neighbour is undergoing strife that is both political and sectarian in nature. Add to it the fact that Bahrain is also witnessing dissent in its ranks, and the GCC has a lot to worry about.

The Case of Yemen

Yemen has seen its share of issues in the past, but the recent illegitimate coup mastered by the Houthi rebels has torn the country in two parts. The Gulf Cooperation Council is aware of the threat posed by the Houthi rebels, and as such, when Yemen’s President Mansour Hadi was forced to flee to Aden, the Gulf states too decided to move their diplomatic missions to Aden itself, thereby sending a direct message to the rebels that GCC does not approve of their militancy and violence.

Saudi Arabia had already undertaken measures to construct security barriers in its provinces of Najran and Jizan. Yet, all said and done, Yemen cannot be isolated or detached from GCC. Now that Riyadh has a new monarch, the manner in which the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will respond to the crisis in Yemen will decide the route the GCC might opt for.

A Joint Military Command?

The military budget of Gulf states reaches tens of billions per annum. As such, the GCC Peninsula Shield Force might seem to be a viable option for intervention in Yemen. However, it must be noted that Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain are actively contributing to the international coalition against the Islamic State and as such, neither of them seem to be in a position to undertake an extra expedition, be it in Yemen or Syria.

At the end of it all, this is perfect moment for the Gulf Cooperation Council to get its act together. If the member-states of GCC can put in place a feasible and operative security strategy, they can easily ward off unwanted Western intervention and simultaneously ensure the stability of an otherwise troubled neighbourhood.

With the Houthi terrorists eager to establish their control in the southern part of the region, the GCC needs to be cautious and focus on actual implementation of security tactics.

Funds and hydrocarbons cannot purchase peace and stability. Therefore, time has come for less words and more actions on part of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The post Securing The Gulf: The Question Of Yemen – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Othon Anastasakis*

There has been a lot of speculation on SYRIZA’s foreign policy. Will the country break its relationship with the EU and risk an exit from the Eurozone? Will Greece become a “Venezuela” in the European continent? Will it embrace Russia and China in order to challenge Troika’s hegemony? What are we to make of SYRIZA’s ultra-nationalist coalition partner in the traditional matters of national interest, e.g., Cyprus, Turkey and the Macedonian name? Finally, will the new government adopt a pragmatic or a maximalist approach?

As has been the pattern since the start of the economic crisis, Greece’s foreign policy is largely determined by the country’s relationship with the EU and is formed by its vulnerable position within the Eurozone. From the first hours with SYRIZA in power, it was evident that Greece did not have “allies” in the EU, but “partners” who have limited trust in the new government. These partners demand that the country sticks to the rules and agreements that were stipulated by the previous governments of George Papandreou and Antonis Samaras.

Paradoxically, among the staunchest of adversaries of SYRIZA in the Eurogroup were the countries that experienced austerity and externally imposed fiscal discipline, i.e. Spain, Portugal and Ireland. These countries held their own views regarding domestic politics and had their own fears of internal radicalism. The main antagonist of Greece is Germany, which is viewed by the Greek public opinion as the main enforcer of the dogma of austerity. Such austerity has created a feeling of resentment, mixed with historical revisionism and collective memories of the Nazi past. In the minds of most Greeks, Germany has become the “significant other,” or the new danger, to the country’s social peace and democratic stability.

SYRIZA has been pivotal in adopting such a position and creating a public sentiment against the German austerity excesses. However, because the relationship is very asymmetrical, the government will have to follow a pragmatic approach vis a vis Germany and the debtors. Greece’s weak economic position and the faltering Greek banks have already led the government to deviate from its maximalist views of debt reduction, as well as many unilateral policies of public spending, and focus on the most important national demands, e.g., the humanitarian crisis or primary surplus.

In this Germanophobic climate, there is an interesting twist in SYRIZA’s foreign policy, which relates to a more favourable view of the role of the United States. The latter, a traditional external foe of the Greek left, has now become an ally in the fight against Germany’s dogmatic position, and the American President and administration are welcome voices of support. Having said that, this pro-US feeling does not translate into financial assistance. SYRIZA knows well that it cannot seek funding from the United States, but mostly moral support and pressure towards Germany from the pro-growth superpower. The latter is worried that a possible Grexit will have dramatic economic repercussions beyond Europe, and will also weaken Greece as a reliable security ally in the very sensitive geostrategic environment of the Eastern Mediterranean. Here again, SYRIZA government is adopting a pragmatic approach and a significant turn from its traditional and historical anti-Americanism.

In an increasingly multipolar international environment, SYRIZA has to assess its relationship with the other global powers, i.e., Russia and China. Not only have both of these states already developed economic and other links with Greece, but they are also considering the strengthening of ties and are planning for the future. Russia is considering a new energy route that could go through Turkey and Greece to replace the frozen “South Stream.” On the other hand, China views Greece as a significant route for its planned “Maritime Belt,” which goes to Europe through Greece as well as the ports of Piraeus and Thessaloniki. Investments from both of these countries are deemed essential in these difficult economic times, especially the ones coming from China, which is currently a stronger and more dynamic economy. Relations with Russia are less reliable and less predictable, and it has become clear that Russia cannot offer financial assistance or loans that could alleviate dependency on western creditors.

SYRIZA also has to pursue a pragmatic approach, which will be defined by how much Russia and China can offer, and must take into account that these two cannot be real alternatives to the EU’s hegemonic presence. What the SYRIZA government would like to do is follow a pro-active policy in its bilateral relations with the third countries as well as within the EU institutions where it will want to make its voice heard – the voice of a small EU member state – including the adoption of a more moderate approach towards Russia in the field of sanctions or military build up. Here, it may have more in common with Germany than meets the eye.

Where does this leave the traditional issues of national interest, the Macedonian name, Greek-Turkish relations and Cyprus? These will most likely remain on the back burner and, in that sense, there will be continuity with the previous governments. The Macedonian name is a loaded issue that is not amenable to a solution any time soon as long as the government of Grueski remains intransigent and the SYRIZA government relies on a coalition with ANEL. Greek-Turkish relations have normalised during the last 15 years and neither country would be willing to create another destabilising external front in the Aegean.

As it is, Turkey has enough threats on its borders with the Middle East, and Greece has enough challenges with its Eurozone membership. Besides, relations between the two states have seen progress in the economic field with increasing trade and investment opportunities initially from Greece to Turkey and later from Turkey to Greece. In addition, cooperation in the energy field might be an additional link between the two countries. As for Cyprus, the recovery of the island’s economy is a massive task in itself and most complications will probably emanate from competing gas supplies in the eastern Mediterranean. SYRIZA’s foreign policy will have to be pragmatic and cautious in the traditional themes of Greek diplomacy, which, during the years of crisis and austerity, became of a secondary priority anyway.

In conclusion, the SYRIZA government will be realistic in its foreign policy objectives by keeping a degree of continuity with its previous priorities. It may make a difference to try to regain a voice in the unanimity environment of the EU’s external relations, to retrieve some ownership of its internal reform priorities and to liberate some external strategic options from “the prison” of its economic dependency. The real challenge of the country’s foreign policy will be to regain allies within the EU, restore the country’s credibility vis a vis investors and project itself as an area of stability in an increasingly unstable neighbourhood.

*Prof. Dr. Othon Anastasakis is the Director of the European Studies Centre at Oxford.

**This article was first published in Analist Monthly Journal’s March issue.

The post Syriza’s Foreign Policy: Continuity Or Rupture? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Hassan Ahmadian*

Since Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud became the new Saudi king, domestic developments in Saudi Arabia have taken a rapid pace, as a result of which questions have arisen as to the foreign policy approach of the new Saudi monarch. King Salman is apparently attaching high importance to foreign policy of Saudi Arabia because the current versatility in the Middle East’s political sphere and the resultant security challenges have had no precedent since the end of the World War II. Under these conditions, even a small change in the policies of regional powers can have a profound effect on security and political trends in the region and may even lead to emergence and rise of new trends. As a result, following the ascension to the throne of King Salman and due to subsequent changes in the power structure of Saudi Arabia, active players in the Middle East as well as observers elsewhere expected changes in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy and, at the same time, posed various questions in this regard.

Changes first started inside Saudi Arabia. Within a week after he came to power, King Salman issued 34 royal decrees. The extent of changes brought about by those decrees was unprecedented in contemporary history of Saudi Arabia in terms of speed and scope. Of course, it was habitual with Saudi kings to appoint those closest to them to key posts and power positions in a gradual manner. However, despite usual expectations, King Salman did not follow that gradual pattern. As a result of changes introduced by him, those close to Salman rapidly fortified their positions within the power structure of Saudi Arabia. These vast and speedy developments, gave rise to speculations about possible parallel changes in the country’s foreign policy. Assuming that the foreign policy is just an extension of domestic policies of a country, it would follow that expecting change in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy would be quite logical.

The most important change, whose signs have already appeared on the horizon, is an effort by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman to get his country rid of foreign policy approaches that had caused serious problems for Saudi Arabia during recent years. Those approaches had practically caused Saudi Arabia to lose needed dynamism in reacting to developments under versatile conditions that prevailed in the region. In other words, one of the priorities of King Salman’s foreign policy was to do away with self-imposed limitations in the area of foreign relations. As a result, changing the type of Saudi Arabia’s interaction with the regional affiliates of the Muslim Brotherhood was put on the agenda. The conflict between the interests of Riyadh and the Muslim Brotherhood started right after the beginning of the Arab Spring and was mostly the result of Riyadh’s concern about increasing power of the Muslim Brotherhood both within and in the surroundings of Saudi Arabia. Extended support lent by Saudi Arabia to the Egyptian army following the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Mohamed Morsi; intensification of differences between Riyadh and Ankara, Tunisia and the Palestinian resistance movement of Hamas; and near-complete severance of ties with al-Islah party in Yemen were major highlights of Saudi Arabia’s approach to the Muslim Brotherhood following the outbreak of the Arab Spring. On the whole, Riyadh was at odds with all organizational branches of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region and decided to support those regional regimes that opposed the Muslim Brotherhood.

However, as compared to his predecessor, King Abdullah, Salman is more religious, more traditional and, on the whole, closer to the social realities of Saudi Arabia. In addition, it seems that previous rumors and speculations about his close relations with the Muslim Brotherhood have come true. The fact that he has let Tunisia’s Rashid al-Ghannushi to visit Saudi Arabia is a positive sign in this regard because the former Saudi king had twice rejected Ghannushi’s demand. Another signs was related to Saud al-Shuraim, one of the Imams of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, who had been banned from preaching because of his close relations with the Muslim Brotherhood. However, under the new king, he was allowed to restart preaching. The third sign proving a détente between Riyadh and the Muslim Brotherhood was restoration of the passport of the Saudi cleric, Salman al-Ouda, who had been previously stripped of his passport. Above all, a recent visit to Saudi Arabia by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the type of welcome given to him and private talks with him as compared to his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, was the most important sign of this change in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy orientation.

Simultaneity of Saudi visits by Erdogan and Sisi gave rise to some questions because given the fastidiousness of Riyadh in arranging such diplomatic exchanges, this development could not be taken as haphazard. In fact, by planning these simultaneous visits, Riyadh was sending out the message that it will no longer limit its diplomatic and security priorities to Egypt and will engage in serious interactions with Turkey as well. In other words, Saudi Arabia’s policy toward Turkey is changing, but this change does not necessarily mean that Riyadh is changing its approach to Egypt. Nonetheless, Saudi officials are well aware that such interactions with Turkey cannot be desirable to Cairo. Of course, this is not actually a source of concern for Saudi Arabia because they know that Cairo under the rule of Sisi needs Riyadh more than any time before. Saudi officials are well aware that Egypt has currently no choice, but to maintain special relations with Saudi Arabia and this situation will continue, at least, in medium term. Now, it is turn for Egypt to be bound by security and diplomatic priorities of Saudi Arabia.

It is evident that Riyadh has changed its approach to Ankara. Saudis have apparently reached the conclusion that the optimal way for rivalry with the Islamic Republic of Iran and its influence in the Middle East is to get close to Erdogan’s Turkey. The positive attitude of King Salman toward the Muslim Brotherhood has been the key to restoration of relations between the two countries. Both countries have been losers of the Syrian war. In Iraq, they have been watching the rising power of the Islamic Republic and the war launched by the United States against the ISIS terrorist group. Moreover, when it comes to Hamas, Yemen and even Lebanon, they see themselves faced with the increasing power of Iran. In this way, short-term priorities of the two countries with regard to issues of the Middle East have made it easy to forecast a possible détente between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The only obstacle to such a détente was Riyadh’s animosity toward the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been largely removed following the enthronement of King Salman.

The warm welcome given to Erdogan and private talks between Salman and Erdogan as opposed to the unceremonious return of Sisi to Cairo were all telltale signs which proved that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are working toward convergence on certain regional issues. According to available information, the two countries have emphasized continuation of support for the Syrian opposition. On the other hand, a plan is already in gear to train the Syrian opposition in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It was due to these developments and positons that the Syrian opposition groups announced following the meeting between Erdogan and Salman that they have turned down a truce plan offered by the United Nations’ special envoy so Syria, Staffan de Mistura. In other words, the Syrian opposition has been inspired with new hope as it sees a new prospect for Syria’s developments in the light of the assistance that it is receiving from Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Of course, Syria has been recently more of interest to Turkey than Saudi Arabia. Therefore, we should expect some sort of exchange of cooperation between the two countries in this regard. Yemen is the most important place where Turkey and Saudi Arabia can exchange reciprocal cooperation. Of course, no accurate reports have been published in this regard yet, but Saudi Arabia has been apparently resuming its support for al-Islah party. This development, considering Turkey’s special relations with this party, can form a connecting link to bolster cooperation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia in various fields.

On the whole, protecting Sisi’s Egypt is not on the top of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy priorities anymore. Getting closer to Turkey in a bid to deal with the new developments in Yemen as well as increasing support for the Syrian opposition are now the main components of new and emerging regional policy of Riyadh. The previous interaction between Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Syria lacked a farsighted and strategic approach to regional developments as a result of which the ISIS was born, which is now posing a major threat to the entire Middle East region. The same story is being repeated in Yemen as Saudi Arabia is lending its support to certain currents in this country. It should be noted that the different and sometimes conflicting approaches taken by Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the past has so far wreaked havoc on both Syria and Iraq. We must wait and see what developments will take shape in the Middle East region as a result of the new round of the two countries’ cooperation on regional issues. A look to the past will tell us that one cannot expect establishment of more stability and security in the region. Sisi’s Egypt cannot join the new alliance formed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the near future, but certainly, it will not oppose that alliance either.

*Hassan Ahmadian
PhD, Senior Researcher; IRI Expediency Council’s Center for Strategic Research (CSR)

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