Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live

Canada: Nationwide Protests Against New Anti-Terror :aw

0
0

Thousands of demonstrators have united across Canada to take action against proposed anti-terrorism legislation known as Bill C-51, which would expand the powers of police and the nation’s spy agency, especially when it comes to detaining terror suspects.

Organizers of the ‘Day of Action’ said that “over 70 communities” across Canada were planning to participate on Saturday, according to StopC51.ca.

The biggest gatherings were reported in Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and Halifax.

“I’m really worried about democracy, this country is going in a really bad direction, [Prime Minister Stephen] Harper is taking it in a really bad direction,” protester Stuart Basden from Toronto, the Canadian city which saw hundreds of people come out, told The Star.

“Freedom to speak out against the government is probably [in] jeopardy…even if you’re just posting stuff online you could be targeted, so it’s a really terrifying bill,” Basden added.

The ruling Conservative government tabled the legislation back in January, arguing that the new law would improve the safety of Canadians.

Demonstrators across the nation held signs and chanted against the bill, which they believe violates Canadian civil liberties and online privacy rights.

Protester Holley Kofluk told CBC News that the legislation “lacked specificity…it’s just so much ambiguity, it leaves people open [and] vulnerable.”

One of the protest organizers in Collingwood, Jim Pinkerton, shared with QMI Agency that he would like to see the Canadian government “start over with Bill C-51 with proper safeguards and real oversight.”

“We need CSIS to be accountable. It’s not OK for CSIS to act as the police, which is what’s indicated in Bill C-51. We need accountability and Canadians deserve that,” Pinkerton said.

The Day of Action is being backed by more than 30 civil liberties groups, including Amnesty International Canada, LeadNow, OpenMedia, Canadian Journalists for Free Expression, the Council for Canadians, and others.

One of the biggest concerns the new legislation raises is the additional powers it grants to police and Canada’s spy agency – the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) – by increasing information sharing and allowing detention on mere suspicion.

“This bill disproportionately targets indigenous communities, environmental activists, dissidents, and Muslims, many of whom are already subjected to questionable and overreaching powers by security officials, [and] will make it easier and ostensibly lawful for government to continue infringing upon the rights of peaceful people,” StopC51.ca said.

A spokesman for Public Safety Minister Steven Blaney, Jeremy Laurin, spoke in support of the bill on Saturday, telling CBC News that the government “rejects the argument that every time we talk about security, our freedoms are threatened.”

“Canadians understand that their freedom and security go hand in hand [and] expect us to protect both, and there are safeguards in this legislation to do exactly that,” Laurin said.

Blaney’s parliamentary secretary, Roxanne James, also issued comments of support, saying she was happy to answer any questions or concerns about the proposed law.

“Most people across Canada believe that if one branch of government comes across information pertinent to the national security of this country and the safety and security of our citizens, then that branch of government should be able to relay that information to our national security agencies,” James said. “That is precisely what Bill C-51 would do, and I was pleased to be able to answer those concerns.”

The post Canada: Nationwide Protests Against New Anti-Terror :aw appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Why Did The Madrid Train Bombings Divide, Not Unite Spaniards? – OpEd

0
0

By Fernando Reinares*

Contrary to what happened in British society after the London attacks on July 7, 2005, the Madrid train bombings of March 11, 2004 profoundly divided Spanish society.

The after effects of that disunity persist, although they have become less manifest with time. The disunity was, and continues to be, based on differing attributions of blame for the commuter train massacre. Yet it proved to be a spurious division resulting from a politicization of 11-M, as the attacks came to be known.

This situation, in turn, was made possible by specific features of the Spanish political system – such as its greater penchant for polarization, or the recurring absence of cross-party consensus on matters of defense, foreign affairs or counter-terrorism – but above all because citizens were unaware of a terrorist threat that had been present in Spanish society for a full decade before 11-M.

Some Spaniards, particularly those whose political beliefs lie on the right of the spectrum, believed (and partly still do) that the Madrid attacks were somehow the work of Basque terrorist organization ETA. The most common version of this argument goes that the moritos de Lavapiés (or, the Little Moors from Lavapiés) – an odd way to talk about the people who set up the 11-M terrorist network – lacked the knowledge and ability to carry out the March 11, 2004 attacks.

That is why, even though these individuals took part in the events, they must have been induced and supported from within Spain by other, more experienced terrorists. Often, this argument is supplemented with speculation about the way José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero – the new Socialist prime minister who emerged out of general elections held three days after 11-M – later offered ETA a transformative way out via an ultimately failed negotiation process instead of trying to defeat it.

Other Spaniards, mostly those on the left of this political spectrum, believed (and more than a few still do) that the attacks of March 11, 2004 were a consequence of the “Azores photograph,” a reference to a shot taken on March 16, 2003 on one of the Portuguese islands that illustrated the affinity between the Spanish prime minister at the time, José María Aznar of the center-right Popular Party (PP), and then-US President George W. Bush and his war on terror.

This affinity led to the subsequent deployment of Spanish troops in Iraq shortly after the US invaded the country and toppled its dictator Saddam Hussein. It has not been unusual for this sector of Spanish society to criticize the PP for its insistence on associating ETA with 11-M even after the evidence pointed elsewhere, in order to protect its voting expectations at an election that was held just three days after the bombings.

In truth, both interpretations of 11-M were erroneous, and the lacerating rift that divided Spaniards, including the surviving victims themselves, continues to be deceiving. There is no direct or indirect evidence that ETA was somehow involved in the bomb attacks. Nor is it true that the idea of perpetrating a massacre in Madrid originated in the presence of Spanish soldiers on Iraqi soil.

Like I explain and document in my book ¡Matadlos! Quién estuvo detrás del 11-M y por qué se atentó en España (or, Kill them! Who was behind 11-M and why was Spain attacked?), the decision to carry out that act of terrorism was made in December 2001 in the Pakistani city of Karachi, and ratified at a meeting that delegates from three jihadist organizations from the Maghreb region held in Istanbul in February 2002. Besides that, what later became the 11-M network began forming the following month, over a year before the Iraq invasion took place.

But it was not really necessary to investigate the 11-M attacks, or to unveil new information about them, to avoid this division between Spaniards – even though doing so has helped narrow the gap. It would have been enough if, like the British, we Spaniards had been sufficiently aware of the threat of jihadist terrorism hovering over our heads since well before the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Since at least 1997, reports sent in by the Foreign Intelligence Central Unit (UCIE) of the National Police to investigating judges at the High Court – in charge of authorizing wiretaps of jihadists active in Spain – were warning about the need for investigations “to prevent the highly probable perpetration of attacks in our country.”

During my book presentations throughout the past year in numerous Spanish cities, I was able to certify that, even among citizens with an interest in the issue who were adults when the Madrid bombings took place, there was a huge lack of awareness about the expansion of jihadism in our country since the mid-1990s. Practically nobody – or at least very few people – knew that back in 1994 Al Qaeda had founded in Spain one of its most important cells in all Western Europe, or that this cell was broken up in November 2001 after it was shown to have ties with the people who committed the 9/11 attacks on US soil.

Practically nobody was aware that throughout 2003, the year before 11-M, over 40 individuals were arrested in Spain for their involvement in jihadist terrorism activities. That figure had not been so high since the first jihadist arrest in Barcelona in 1995 and the first breakup of a jihadist cell in Valencia in 1997.

This lack of awareness about these and many other incidents relating to the evolution of jihadist terrorism in Spain in the decade prior to the Madrid attacks, and the fact that this reality was not perceived as a threat by Spanish public opinion until very late, and then only after the Iraq crisis of 2002, can be partly explained by all the attention that ETA’s frequent terrorist attacks were getting. But there was no adequate education by the political class regarding a problem that was even trivialized on occasion – suffice it to mention the humorously titled Operation Dixán, named after a brand of detergent.

As a result, when 11-M occurred, Spaniards sought to explain the terrorist bombings using familiar concepts, since they could not do so using unfamiliar ones. What was familiar? On the one hand, ETA, and on the other, Iraq. If 11-M divided us, it is because we as a society lacked the necessary resilience against large-scale terrorist attacks beyond our immediate crisis and emergency management skills.

At present, with global jihadism more widespread than ever and the terrorist threat against liberal democracies at levels unseen since 9/11, Spain’s political elites and civil society as a whole, especially the media, have a pending challenge: to make Spain less vulnerable, more aware and increasingly resilient to the penetration of jihadist actors and ideologies as well as to any future expressions of their violence against our own citizens and interests.

Originally published in El País in English on 11/3/2015. Also available  the Spanish version: Por  qué el 11-M dividió a los españoles.

About the author:
*Fernando Reinares is Senior Analyst on international terrorism at the Elcano Royal Institute think tank, a professor of political science at Rey Juan Carlos University and an adjunct professor of security studies at Georgetown University. He is the author of ¡Matadlos! Quién estuvo detrás del 11-M y por qué se atentó en España (Galaxia Gutenberg / Círculo de Lectores, 2014) | @F_Reinares

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute.

The post Why Did The Madrid Train Bombings Divide, Not Unite Spaniards? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

India: Chhattisgarh Assessment 2015 – Analysis

0
0

Continuing the momentum after the December 1, 2014, Kasalpar [Sukma] attack on Security Forces (SFs), in which 14 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel, including two officers, were killed, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres killed at least seven civilians in six incidents, and 10 SF personnel in nine incidents, while losing just three cadres in two incidents, as of February 25, 2015, in Chhattisgarh. Interestingly, there has not been a single major incident [resulting in a total of three or more casualties] in this period, indicating that the Maoists are going about their business steadily, without drawing much attention to themselves.

On January 1, 2015, Maoists killed a top surrendered Maoist, Korsa Jagaram aka Shivaji, in Kottapal village, Bijapur District. Shivaji, a native of Silger in Sukma, was a member of the West Bastar Division Committee of the CPI-Maoist and carried a reward of INR 900,000 before his surrender. He was recruited as a Gopniya Sainik (secret informer) by the Bijapur Police after his surrender. Due to his involvement in several prominent attacks on the security forces and proximity to top Maoists, he was a major intelligence source for the Police. “His death is a major loss for us,” an unnamed officer conceded.

Further, in what appeared to be a planted intelligence trap, the Maoists ambushed a joint party of the District Police and Border Security Force (BSF) near the Bande area of Kanker District on February 2, 2015, killing Bande Station House Officer (SHO) Avinash Sharma and Gopniya Sainik (secret agent) Sonu Ram Gawde, while injuring another six SF personnel — three each from the Police and BSF. While all the personnel were on motorcycles, at least Sharma and Gawde were in formals rather than fatigues, indicating that they were not expecting an armed engagement at all. The incident assumed significance as Kanker had not reported the death of any SF personnel in Maoist attacks through 2014.

According to partial data compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal, Chhattisgarh regained the dubious distinction of recording the highest fatalities in LWE-related violence in India in 2014, with a total of 113 killed, including 25 civilians 55 SF personnel and 33 Maoists. In 2013, 128 fatalities had been recorded in the State, including 48 civilians 45 SF personnel and 35 Maoists. The trends indicate a decrease in civilian and an increase in SF fatalities, with Maoist casualties decreasing only marginally in 2014, as against 2013. Data released by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) confirms, to be uploaded in SATP] these trends, recording 146 total fatalities, including 52 civilians 59 SF personnel and 35 Maoists, in 2014; in comparison to 149 fatalities, including 67 civilians 44 SF personnel and 38 Maoists, in 2013.

Significantly, the number of SF personnel killed in Chhattisgarh is disproportionately high, in comparison to other Maoist-affected States. According to SATP data, in 2014 Chhattisgarh alone accounted for 55 SF fatalities, out of a total of 87 in all States. In 2013, Chhattisgarh accounted for a much lower 45 out of 111 SF fatalities in all States, with Jharkhand and Bihar accounting for 26 and 25 fatalities, respectively. The SF to Maoist fatality ratio is also exceptionally adverse and worsening, at 1.7:1 in 2014, as against 1.29:1 in 2013.

It is clear that Chhattisgarh remains the nerve centre of Maoist movement and functions as the locus of their ‘tactical counter offensive’ campaigns. District-level fatalities data further indicates that almost all fatalities in Chhattisgarh have been restricted to the Bastar Division – comprising Sukma, Bijapur, Dantewada, Bastar, Kondagaon, Narayanpur and Kanker Districts. The only exception is Rajnandgaon District (two fatalities), which shares its border with Gadchiroli in Maharashtra.

Chhattisgarh recorded 11 major incidents through 2014, in which SFs suffered principal losses in five; the Maoists suffered principal losses in another five; while civilians (polling officials) bore the brunt in one incident when Maoists mistook them for SF personnel. The Maoists lost 15 cadres in these incidents, while SFs lost 43 personnel, indicating that the Maoist retaliation was much stronger. It is clear, moreover, that despite assessments of significant weakening of the rebel Forces and leadership – judgments that have been confirmed by internal appraisals by the Maoists -, the Maoists still retain sufficient residual strength to sustain their counter-offensive.

While Maoist-Police encounters as well as attacks on the Police have increased in frequency, a range of other parameters remain more or less comparable over 2013-2014. Significantly, the number of surrenders of Maoist cadres has also risen sharply.

Other Parameters of LWE/CPI-Maoist Violence in Chhattisgarh: 2011-2014

Parameters

2011
2012
2013
2014

No. of incidents

465
369
353
328

Police Informers’ Killed (Out of total civilians killed)

91
35
31
24

No. of encounters with police

99
88
92
103

No. of attacks on police (including landmines)

75
77
102
109

No. of Naxalites arrested

509
397
387
686

No. of Naxalites surrendered

20
26
28
413

Total no. of arms snatched

29
17
29
45

Total no. of arms recovered

108
91
155
124

Arms training camps held

24
24
14
15

No of Jan Adalats held

13
14
7
6
Source: UMHA

SFs have made several significant arrests, including Raghunath Yadav, an active member of Military Company Number-6, carrying reward money of INR 800,000; a Maoist couple – Sanjeev Himchi aka Sanju aka Nagesh (26) and his wife Navotin Himachi aka Santila, with reward money of INR 800,000 and INR 300,000, respectively; Manku, with a reward money of INR 800,000; Jairam, a member of the Kiskodo Area Committee, arrested with an AK-47 in Kanker District; Jyoti, a woman Maoist ‘deputy commander’ belonging to the Basur ‘area committee’, with a reward of INR 300,000; and Ayutu (27) a ‘deputy commander’, carrying a reward of INR 300,000.

Similarly, there have been important surrenders in the State as well, within the context of a wider wave of surrenders. There have, however, been some apprehensions regarding the quality of surrenders, with allegations that the overwhelming numbers are comprised of sympathisers or others only peripherally connected – in some cases allegedly unconnected – with the Maoists. These apprehensions notwithstanding, the surrenders include high profile Maoists including Chambala Ravinder aka Arjun, reportedly the ‘commander’ of the ‘2nd Battalion’ of the People’s Liberation Guerilla Army (PLGA), suggesting a measure of discontent within the rebel leadership.

Despite the erosion in popular support, the Maoists continue to exercise considerable ‘power’ in the Bastar region. Thus, on January 9, 2015, some 130 Sarpanch (elected heads of village self-government bodies) candidates were herded by Maoists into the core forest area near the Gonguda Hill range in Sukma District with the assurance that they would be released after a meeting with senior Maoists. The candidates were held hostage till January 15, when CPI-Maoist ‘divisional committee’ member Jaggu, along with Kerlapal ‘area committee ‘commander’ Bhime aka Reena, and armed cadres, finally reached there to warn them against participating in the elections.

In the Panchayat elections eventually held in four phases between January 28, 2015 and February 10, 2015, of 22,416 panches (village representatives) elected in the seven Districts of the Bastar Division, nearly 50 per cent, or 11,098 candidates, won unopposed, presumably as a result of pressure from the Maoists on other candidates not to contest. 212 sarpanchs also won unopposed. At least 90 per cent of these, the Chhattisgarh Police claimed, either had links with the Maoists or were supported by them. The maximum presence of Maoist-backed representatives was in the Narayanpur, Dantewada, Bijapur and Sukma Districts of Bastar Division, where, out of a total 6,963 panches, 5,186 (75 per cent) won unopposed. Of 1,107 panches in Narayanpur, 938 were elected unopposed. Of 2,169 panches in Bijapur, 1,785 were elected unopposed, while 1,335 of 1,709 panches in Dantewada, and 1,128 of 1,978 panches in Sukma won unopposed. With various Government schemes worth at least INR10 billion annually, implemented through the panchayats, preventing leakages to the Maoists will be an uphill task, as hardly any officer is likely to visit interior areas to audit the actual implementation of works and expenditure. An officer who has worked in the area commented: “Collectors are strictly asked to not travel beyond a point. Who will monitor the schemes? We have to rely on these panch only.” Ironically, according to media reports, Dantewada District won the award for best implementation of MNREGA, when the panchayat polls were on.

The response from the political establishment to the Maoist insurgency has failed to go beyond posturing and rhetoric. Even as Maoists killed a Special Task Force trooper in the Gadiras area and a secret police agent in Konta town, both of Sukma District], and derailed a goods train engine at the Kamalur Station in Dantewada District on February 19, 2015, Chief Minister Raman Singh tweeted, “Our gallant police jawans (troopers) and their sacrifices have brought us closer to the end of Naxalism.”

In a candid interview, Dilip Trivedi, the outgoing Director General of the CRPF, observed, on November 27, 2014, “For some States, continuing Naxal violence is beneficial. It helps them get central funds. And then it’s not their men who die but those from outside the State (central force personnel).” Sources indicate that Trivedi was pointing to Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha. It remains the case that, despite the training of over 22,000 Chhattisgarh Police personnel at the Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare College at Kanker, the overwhelming proportion of the anti-Maoist fighting continues to be done by Central Forces, whose total deployment in Chhattisgarh amounts to some 31 Battalions, with each battalion yielding approximately 400 personnel on the ground – that is, barely 12,400 Central Paramilitary Force (CPMF) personnel. The highly affected Bastar Division alone covers nearly 40,000 square kilometres.

A political establishment that is in power in the Chhattisgarh for the third consecutive term still leaves too much to be desired even in terms of basic governance. The condition in Maoist-affected areas remains distressing. According to media reports, data provided by Sukma, Bijapur and Dantewada Districts to UMHA indicates that these three Districts have only 44 bank and regional rural bank branches, in total. Sukma and Bijapur have just 10 ATMs. Sukma, 13 mobile towers out of 32 are non-functional. It has only four sub-post offices and all 61 branch post offices are non-functional. Bijapur has five sub-post offices and 53 branch post offices but only two of these are functional. Dantewada has six sub post offices and 59 branch post offices, of which nine don’t have a single employee, and a total of 50 per cent of all posts are lying vacant. In Bijapur, 14 mobile towers are functional but another 14 sanctioned towers are yet to be installed. In Dantewada, three of 20 mobile towers are non-functional. Governance in Sukma and Bijapur continues to be rudimentary, at best.

Based on underground and over-ground activities of the Maoists, Sukma, Bijapur, Dantewada, Bastar, Kanker, Narayanpur and Kondagaon Districts remain highly-affected. Rajnandgaon is moderately affected, while Raipur, Joshpur, Balod, Balarampur, Gairabnd and Dhamtari remain marginally affected.

The Maoist movement has lost vigour in many other States, and has suffered significant reverses in Chhattisgarh as well. However, the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh remains the nerve centre of the Maoist counter offensive. The Maoists continue to use their depleted manpower and resources with a high measure of ingenuity, even as the state’s responses continue to display a lack of coherence and focus.

There is no dearth of evidence to show that determined efforts have succeeded in defeating the Maoists in other theatres and at other times in the history of the movement. India has had several counter-insurgency successes, and after the new National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Government came to power at the Centre, there has been some talk about using the experience and successful counter-insurgency strategies employed in Punjab, Tripura and Andhra Pradesh, to fight the Maoists. Unfortunately, little of this has actually translated into any strategic shift on the ground.

Nevertheless, the Centre has shown its willingness to send more troops into Bastar, and the long-delayed establishment of a base for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operations in Bhilai has now been pushed forward, and a UAV made its first test-reconnaissance from the airstrip in the Bhilai Steel Plant campus on February 27, 2015. The UAV is likely to be connected with certain Strategic locations within months for live inputs.

Increasing pressure from the Centre has, in the past, tended to act overwhelmingly on the Central Forces and organisations engaged in anti-Maoist operations in Chhattisgarh, at least on occasion, with unfortunate consequences. Unless the State Police, with its critical asset of local manpower, takes on its necessary responsibilities in the counter-insurgency operations in the State, successes will remain fitful, and the Maoist potential for resurgence intact.

The post India: Chhattisgarh Assessment 2015 – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Spain’s Labor Market Grows More Dynamic

0
0

Labor mobility maintained its upward march to reach 18.8 percent in the second half of 2014 — 1 percentage point above the 17.8 percent observed in the first half of the year. This means that nearly one in five workers changed jobs during the period.

This increase in labor dynamism, a trend now evident since 2013, is measured by the labor dynamism index (IDL, for its acronym in Spanish), a tool developed by IESE’s International Research Center on Organizations and Meta4. The indicator measures the movement of workers between already existing jobs — excluding the movement to and from newly created or destroyed posts.

On the one hand, increased labor mobility may point to efficiency gains and greater possibilities for those who may have been previously excluded from any employment. On the other hand, increased labor mobility could also point to higher job insecurity or staff turnover linked to lower retention rates and less training for short-term hires.

The indicator’s components (labor flows and workflows) also show that 26 percent of the jobs in Spain posted some change (with employees coming or going, mainly). At the same time, job creation remains tenuous: in the analysis, there were an average of 4 new positions created and 2.5 positions destroyed for every 100 jobs in the second half of 2014.idl2015_eng

Women: More Likely to Change Jobs

Along with new data for the second half of 2014, the latest edition of the labor dynamism index introduces two new demographic variables: the gender and age of workforce members.

With this new data, the index reveals that women have slightly higher turnover rates than men in the Spanish labor market. Although women represent only 40 percent of the workforce analyzed, their contribution to job turnover is higher, at 53 percent since 2013.

The report notes that women’s turnover rates can be attributed to their higher rate of short-term contracts (spanning 30 days or less). On average, 3.3 percent of working women have short-term contracts, compared to 2.5 percent of men.

Younger Employees: Leading Labor Dynamism

The analysis of the IDL by age group reveals a gap between younger employees and those with more work experience, with younger employees changing jobs much more often.

Dividing workers into three groups by age — under 35, from 35 to 45, and over 45 — the increase in labor dynamism is clearly best explained by the under 35 age group.

While each age group represents approximately one third of the workforce analyzed, the dynamism of the under 35 group accounted for 45 percent of index mobility in 2010 and it climbed to 58 percent in 2014.

This phenomenon stems from younger workers’ higher propensity to alternate between employment and unemployment (or vice versa), and to jump between different jobs.idl2015_eng2

A Tool to Take the Pulse of Labor Dynamics

By measuring the movement of workers within existing jobs, this index homes in on labor mobility caused by retirement, resignations (voluntary or prompted by the employer) and contract changes (moving from short- or fixed-term work to full employment, moving functions or departments, etc.).

The index is based on data from 150,000 employees in 800 companies operating in Spain, covering 21 different sectors.

The post Spain’s Labor Market Grows More Dynamic appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US Presidential Task Force Releases Action Plan To Combat Illegal, Unreported And Unregulated Fishing And Seafood Fraud

0
0

The US Presidential Task Force on Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing and Seafood Fraud, co-chaired by the Departments of Commerce and State, released its action plan. This plan articulates the aggressive steps that federal agencies will take both domestically and internationally to implement the recommendations the Task Force made in December 2014.

The plan identifies actions that will strengthen enforcement, create and expand partnerships with state and local governments, industry, and non-governmental organizations, and create a risk-based traceability program to track seafood from harvest to entry into U.S. commerce. The plan also highlights ways in which the United States will work with our foreign partners to strengthen international governance, enhance cooperation, and build capacity to combat IUU fishing and seafood fraud. This includes the Administration’s work to secure historic and enforceable environmental provisions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional trade agreement that includes countries that together account for approximately one-quarter of global marine catch and global seafood exports.

“The Obama Administration is committed to working to ensure that America’s fishing industry remains the heart and soul of coastal communities across the country,” said U.S. Deputy Secretary of Commerce Bruce Andrews. “The steps the United States has taken to be a leader in environmental stewardship are paying off. However, our nation’s fisheries remain threatened by illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing and seafood fraud, which negatively affect our markets. The Task Force’s new strategic plan will aggressively implement recommendations to guarantee that U.S. fishing fleets remain competitive in the global economy.”

According to NOAA, in 2013, U.S. fishermen landed 9.9 billion pounds of fish and shellfish worth $5.5 billion. Globally, IUU fishing causes significant economic losses, fueling trafficking operations while undermining economic opportunities for U.S. fishermen and others engaged in legal fishing.

“Illegal fishing and seafood fraud affect the American public and people around the world,” said State Department Under Secretary Cathy Novelli. “The plan we are releasing today puts us on course to tackle these complex global challenges, with a new traceability program at its heart. It also gives new urgency to our work towards the strongest possible international tools – including ratification of the Port State Measures Agreement, which will ensure illegal fish cannot reach the global market. We are working closely with our partners in the United States and around the world to bring the full range of resources to the table.”

“The U.S. is a global leader on building sustainable fisheries and the seafood industry is an incredibly important part of our economy,” said Kathryn Sullivan, PhD, NOAA Administrator. “IUU fishing and seafood fraud undermine economic and environmental sustainability of fisheries and fish stocks in the U.S. and around the world. These actions aim to level the playing field for legitimate fishermen, increase consumer confidence in the sustainability of seafood sold in the U.S., and ensure the vitality of marine fish stocks.”

Some key actions include:

International:

  • Conclude in 2015 the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations that include commitments to combat IUU fishing and first-ever provisions to eliminate harmful fisheries subsidies.
  • Work with Congress to enact implementing legislation for the Port State Measures Agreement and receive commitments from at least 14 additional foreign countries to join the Agreement.
  • Work with international governments, Regional Fisheries Management Organizations, and others to advance best practices for the monitoring, control, and surveillance of international fisheries; the implementation of port State controls; and compliance monitoring.

Enforcement:

  • Implement a strategy to optimize the collection, sharing, and analysis of information and resources to prevent IUU or fraudulently labeled seafood from entering U.S. commerce by September 2015.
  • Implement recommended adjustments to U.S. tariff codes to properly identify seafood products in trade by December 2015.
  • Prioritize combating seafood fraud and the sale of IUU seafood products for joint federal/state enforcement operations and investigation and prosecution of cases in 2015.

Partnerships:

  • Enhance collaboration with interested stakeholders on specific IUU fishing or seafood fraud concerns including through an annual, public, in-person forum of interested stakeholders and the creation of a public web portal to relevant information held by agencies.

Traceability:

  • Define the types of information to be collected along the seafood supply chain from harvest or farm to entry into the U.S. market and the ways in which this information will be collected by October 2015.
  • With input from our partners through a public engagement process, identify the species to which this system will first apply based on how at risk they are of being the product of IUU fishing or seafood fraud by October 2015.
  • Finalize rulemaking to collect additional information on species at risk as a requisite of entry into U.S. commerce by September 2016.
  • Determine how information within the traceability system – including species, geographic origin, and means of production – can be shared with consumers.
  • By December 2016, the Task Force will identify the next steps in expanding the program to all seafood entering U.S. commerce, taking into careful consideration input from stakeholders, as well as the experience from the first year.

This action plan reflects the Administration’s commitment to supporting sustainable fisheries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a regional agreement that includes four of the top 15 global producers of marine fisheries products by volume. TPP is a historic opportunity to address trade-distorting and environmentally damaging practices. TPP is expected to be the first-ever trade agreement to eliminate some of the most harmful fisheries subsidies, including those that contribute to overfishing.

It is also set to include groundbreaking stand-alone commitments to combat IUU fishing, and promote sustainable fisheries management and conservation of marine resources, including sharks and other threatened marine species. The U.S. is seeking similar commitments in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) negotiations with the European Union (EU).

The post US Presidential Task Force Releases Action Plan To Combat Illegal, Unreported And Unregulated Fishing And Seafood Fraud appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Syriza: A Step Away From Grexit?

0
0

By Iosif Kovras and Neophytos Loizides *

Following three weeks of tense negotiations, the Greek government and its creditors have reached a deal that averted the nightmare scenario of Greece abandoning the Euro. Discussions for a Grexit are now over, for at least an additional 4 months, following last Friday’s deal with the Eurozone and the IMF to extend Greece’s financing program.

European countries initially assumed an uncompromising mood fearing a domino effect, if Syriza had achieved changes to the terms of the Greek bailout. Many in European capitals still worry that Podemos, the new anti-austerity party in Spain, would triumph in the Spanish elections later in the year. Indeed Syriza’s leadership campaigned for an abrupt end to anti-austerity policies and it has not been shy in its ambitions for a domino effect for radical change across Europe. However, it is unlikely for the party’s success to be replicated elsewhere in the Eurozone.

Syriza was essentially confronted with two choices none of which will be appealing to voters in future Eurozone country elections. Greece had to either to reach a compromise with its European partners or to face the prospect of a collapsing Greek banking sector. Syriza triggered the January 2015 elections by using a provision for a super-majority in the election of the president. By the time the new PM Alexis Tsipras was elected, all financial indicators have worsened to such an extent that Greece lost any leverage in the negotiations. Syriza was confronted with the tough realities of the debt crisis in its first hours in government; any compromise had to be made in a matter of days, not months. The result is a good one for Greece judging from its alternative; however, Syriza will have hard time explaining the compromise to its radical left constituency.

Despite the comfortable majority, Syriza has to maintain a balance between extremely tight external conditionality, and growing intra-party challenge to its party leadership. Just a couple of days ago, the emblematic figure of the Greek Left and Syriza MEP, Mr Manolis Glezos, condemned the negotiating strategy of the party as too compromising. He went as far as to ‘apologize to the Greek people for contributing to this illusion’, namely that Syriza will keep its electoral promises to end the bailout agreement. One of the unique features of the Greek political system in times of crisis has been the high number of MP defections which trimmed the power of coalition governments to effectively deal with the crisis. The early challenge of the handling of the negotiations by leading Syriza members, reveals that MP defections or other forms of intra-party resistance would minimize the appeal to domestic and international sympathizers.

Syriza’s victory does not only have to be attributed to the socially devastating effects of an externally imposed austerity program. The party also benefited from the distortions of the Greek electoral system which grants a ‘bonus’ of fifty seats to the largest party nationwide. This is a system that hijacks the democratic process. Syriza’s early lead in the polls meant that the party could easily win between 140 to 150 seats (out of 300) narrowing the options for coalition formation. Essentially, with a third of the vote Syriza would either win the elections or block the formation of the new government thus eliminating any electoral chances for the incumbent PASOK Nea Demokratia coalition (only parties, not coalitions, are eligible for the bonus in Greece).

These distortions are largely absent from continental political systems where coalitions are incentivized and frontrunners need to convince a number of coalition partners on the credibility of their programs, a real obstacle for radical parties. Even if Podemos or Sinn Fein in Ireland win the plurality of votes it does not mean necessarily that they will be able to form a government. More importantly, austerity policies are coming to their natural end in most of Eurozone countries which are more likely to distance themselves from the ‘Greek model’. In fact, some of the strongest opponents of Syriza have been incumbent governments in the rest of Southern Europe especially Spain.

A nation proud for its democratic tradition, Greece faced unparalleled difficulties dealing with the post-2008 debt crisis. The Greek leadership could not even reach a minimum degree of consensus in dealing with the crisis and its consequences. The absence of a consensus political culture and institutions could be particularly damaging in times of transition. Greece, the country that historically relied most extensively on majoritarian institutions and single-party governments entered the global financial crisis in the most vulnerable position while subsequently faced insurmountable political and institutional obstacles in its management.

Given the particularities of Greek political culture and institutions, it will prove difficult for the Syriza effect to spill over to other European countries. Even if Syriza succeeds to reach a compromise that will be far away the expectations of the radical left. More importantly, punishing Syriza to prevent the rise of Podemos or Sinn Fein will add another catastrophic decision in the mismanagement of Europe’s debt crisis. Instead the Eurozone countries are right in treating the crisis in Greece on its own right taking into consideration the suffering caused by six years of continuous recession. Prioritising the human dimension of a protracted economic depression rather than the perceived domino effects is the way forward in Greece.

*Dr Kovras is a Research Fellow at Queen’s University, Belfast and Dr. Loizides is a Reader in International Conflict Analysis at the University of Kent.

The post Syriza: A Step Away From Grexit? appeared first on Eurasia Review.

China World’s No. 3 Arms Exporter

0
0

(RFE/RL) — China has surpassed Germany and France to become the third-largest arms exporter in the world after the United States and Russia.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in its annual report on March 16 that the United States made 31 percent of all exports of conventional weapons in 2014, followed by Russia at 27 percent of the world’s total.

The report says Russian exports increased by 37 percent between 2005-2009 and 2010-14.

China trailed far behind with only about 5 percent of the world’s total.

However, Beijing narrowly edged out both Germany and France last year to become the world’s third-largest exporter of arms.

SIPRI said 41 percent of China’s exports went to Pakistan, while Russia’s top buyer was India — the world’s leading arms importer.

India, together with the next four largest importers — Saudi Arabia, China, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan — accounted for one-third (33 percent) of all weapons imports.

With 61 percent, Russia’s arms industry is the main source of imported weapons for China, which ranks third in both arms exports and imports. The rest of China’s imports come from France — 16 percent, and Ukraine 13 percent.

The United States had the most clients, with South Korea receiving 9 percent of U.S. weapons exports.

SIPRI said the data reflects the volume of the deliveries, not the total value of the weapons.

The report said that the first five countries together accounted for almost three-fourths (74 percent) of global arms exports.

SIPRI said that in the 2010-2014, Russia exported arms to 56 states, and also to separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.

Unlike the United States’ exports, Russia’s deliveries were more concentrated, with three countries — India, China, and Algeria — accounting for up to 60 percent of Moscow’s exports.

Ukraine remains a major global arms exporters, with 3 percent of the total from 2010-2014 – an increase of 1 percent compared to 2005-2009. In the 2010-2014 interval, Ukraine’s main clients were China (22 percent), Russia (10 percent), and Thailand (9 percent).

The post China World’s No. 3 Arms Exporter appeared first on Eurasia Review.

FIFA president Blatter Signals Mounting Pressure On Qatar To Tackle Migrant Worker Problems – Analysis

0
0

A warning by world soccer body FIFA president Sepp Blatter following talks this weekend with Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani that Qatar needs to do more to improve the working and living conditions of its migrant workers is the latest signal that Qatar will have to take substantive steps to fend off attempts to deprive it of its 2022 World Cup hosting rights.

Mr. Blatter’s comments have particular significance given that he never was an enthusiastic supporter of efforts by human rights groups and trade unions to use the World Cup as leverage to persuade Qatar to substantially reform its kafala or sponsorship system that puts employees at the mercy of their employers.

The FIFA president’s talks with Sheikh Tamim were designed to fend off mounting criticism of Qatar within the soccer body and to portray Mr. Blatter in advance of FIFA presidential elections as sensitive to a trend among international sports associations spearheaded by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to make human rights a factor in the future awarding of hosting rights for mega sport events.

Mr. Blatter’s visit to Doha followed calls by outgoing FIFA executive committee member Theo Zwanziger to strip Qatar of its hosting rights and a warning that the next FIFA congress could see a motion tabled by member associations to replace Qatar with another host country. FIFA’s executive committee meets this week to approve moving the dates of the Qatar tournament from June/July to November/December because of the Gulf state’s suffocating summer temperatures.

Mr. Zwanziger’s successor in the executive committee, German Football Association president Wolfgang Niersbach, who takes up his office in May, is believed to be equally critical of Qatar. German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called for improved working conditions during a visit to a construction site in Doha earlier this month.

Qatar has responded to criticism by engaging with its critics; promising legislative reform of the kafala system; issuing standards for the working and living conditions by two major Qatari institutions, including the 2022 Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy; and implementing initial measures such as streamlining the payment of wages to ensure that workers are paid on time.

Human rights groups have welcomed the measures but have warned that the Gulf state would lose credibility if it fails to quickly implement sweeping, more convincing reforms. An Amnesty International researcher, Mustafa Qadri, noted this week at the end of a two-week visit to Qatar that little on the ground had changed for migrant workers, who constitute the majority of Qatar’s population.

Mr. Blatter’s warning is further significant because it came against a background of initial grassroots moves to express opposition to Qatar hosting the World Cup. An online petition on Avaaz.org has already garnered some 850,000 signatures. In addition to the petition, The Boycott Shop has started selling online Boycott Qatar 2022 T-shirts.

“As global citizens, we’re deeply concerned by the conditions migrant workers in Qatar are forced to work under for the 2022 World Cup. We urge you to put in place a public policy that ensures every worker on World Cup sites can keep their passports, are granted exit visas, and protected with basic rights and safeties. We also call on the Qatari government to reform its ‘guest’ worker programme and allow any foreign labourer the right to return home. These changes would inspire global confidence in Qatar and CH2M Hill, and have a dramatic impact on the 1.4 million migrants working in the country,” the petition said. US company CH2M Hill serves as the Supreme Committee’s program management consultant.

The organizers of the petition are likely to achieve their target of one million signatures. “If more than 1 million of us stand together for freedom, we can confront her with our voices every time she leaves her house to go to work, or to ski, until she takes action. This same tactic pushed Hilton Hotels to protect women against sex trafficking in days — join the urgent call to help free Qatar’s modern slaves,” they said on Avaaz.org, referring to Colorado-based CH2M CEO Jacqueline Hinman.

Sheikh Tamim has raised the stakes by declaring in a CNN interview last year that the plight of migrant workers pained him. Sheikh Tamim apparently reiterated his support for labour reform in his talks with Mr. Blatter. “”It is encouraging to hear the Emir’s personal commitment to workers’ welfare and to get a sense of the improvements planned for all workers in Qatar. It is clear that Qatar takes its responsibility as host seriously and sees the FIFA World Cup as a catalyst for positive social change,” Mr. Blatter said.

Sheikh Tamim’s support was crucial to enhancing the credibility of declared Qatari intentions. Yet, at the same time it increases pressure on Qatar to act swiftly at a time that the government is caught in a Catch-22 between the need to demonstrate sincerity to its critics and a domestic requirement to move slowly to support for reforms.

A majority of Qataris is believed to be concerned about sweeping reform, if not abolition, of the kafala system. Many Qataris fear given the fact that they constitute only 12 percent of the Gulf state’s total population that change will open up a Pandora’s Box in which foreigners will demand greater rights that could jeopardize Qatari control of their society and culture.

Qatar could take a number of steps to manage the diverging expectations of foreign critics and Qataris and buy the time it needs to implement reforms, but has yet to do so.

Those steps could include a dramatic rather than an incremental increase of labour inspectors who monitor adherence to existing rules and regulations; guarantees to business owners comparable to those provided by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) provided to bank depositors that would allay fears that abolishing exit permits could prompt expatriate business managers to abscond with company funds; incorporation into national legislation of the workers standards adopted by the Supreme Committee and the Qatar Foundation; and creation of an independent commission to monitor labour reform as suggested by a report by law firm DLA Piper that was endorsed by the Qatari government.

The post FIFA president Blatter Signals Mounting Pressure On Qatar To Tackle Migrant Worker Problems – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Talking To Pakistan: India Must Tread Middle Path, Simplify Issues – Analysis

0
0

Several rounds of fire were exchanged between India and Pakistan on New Year’s Eve. The violations at the Line of Control (LoC) continued till the last week of January 2015 ultimately signaling further deterioration in the already fragile relationship.

An analysis of the media reports and official statements from both sides reveals an interesting picture.

Following, is a table collated from various government and media sources regarding the ceasefire violations that took place in the month of January.Ramya_0

While the violations were concentrated in certain sectors, what made them noteworthy was the exodus of people from the scene of action. Certain reports claim that over 6,000 civilians fled from their homes to avoid the exchange of fire. Furthermore, the month of February saw reports emerging of Pakistani Rangers resorting to firing in RS Pura and Arnia sectors on the Indian side.

Some believe that Pakistan remains a mere irritant in India’s rising power status and therefore, the obsession must be curbed. On the other hand, a case is built to engage Pakistan in constructive dialogue and develop concrete mechanisms to avoid clashes at the border. The reality lies somewhere in between these two approaches. India must widen its foreign policy goals and must in this regard expand her strategic vision beyond South Asia to fulfill her power aspirations. At the same time, in order to do so India must positively engage with her neighbours, including Pakistan.

However, the political overtures made by the nuclear neighbours are confrontational at best. While, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif maintained that India wants to engage Pakistan in a ‘low-intensity war’, India’s Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar warned of taking ‘proactive steps’ to end Pakistan’s ‘proxy war’. The concern remains that the ‘eye for an eye’ rhetoric is steeped in the popular but, majoritarian view on both sides.

Treading the middle path remains the only option for India in dealing with Pakistan. This becomes particularly significant given that the lack of engagement tends to result in border violations. India’s Minister of State for Home, Kiren Rijiju’s statement that “India does not need to be hawkish on Pakistan” becomes significant in such a context. The need for a structured mechanism to deal with border violations is obvious but, the complexities associated with bilateral ties remain insurmountable.

The increasing complexities of the bilateral relations between New Delhi and Islamabad have been attributed mainly to ‘policy of linkage’ followed by either sides. For instance, Pakistan through the course of developing its nuclear programme linked nuclear deterrence to conventional asymmetry with India. In turn, the nuclearisation of the two states allowed Pakistan to further internationalise the issue of Kashmir by raising concerns of stability in the region. This opened space for negotiating with India. In turn, the policy of low intensity conflict (LICs) gained momentum as Pakistan linked LICs to conventional asymmetry. The implementation of LICs policy is witnessed in ceasefire violations.

It must be noted that Pakistan has advocated the policy of LICs well before pursuing its nuclear weapons programme. This is seen in the case of Operation Gibraltar and Operation Grand Slam wherein Mujahideen and Pakistani forces combined to launch attacks against the Indian side in 1965. A similar strategy was seen in the Kargil Conflict of 1999. The difference was that unlike in 1965, the Kargil Conflict occurred under a nuclear shadow. Therefore, pursuit of the LIC policy by Pakistan under the nuclear shadow impacted the crisis escalation between the two states. Furthermore, policy of LICs coupled with the nuclearisation of the two states was linked as depicted by many as ‘stability-instability paradox’. The paradox of increasing conflict escalation at the lower levels (LICs) feeds into the larger policy of linkage implemented by Pakistan.

Other reasons have been attributed to the ceasefire violations such as deliberate firing by the Pakistani troops to provide cover to infiltrators entering Kashmir. Also, ceasefire violations occur in response to political developments between the two states. In the recent months, the cancellation of the foreign secretary level talks and the red flag raised by India against the talks between Pakistan and the separatist Hurriyat leaders has caused friction and is reflective in the spike of violations. However, when viewed in totality it feeds into the ‘policy of linkage’ practiced by Pakistan resulting in a complex web of issues which are intricately entangled and difficult to negotiate.

If India continues to break away from talks and link issues, as has Pakistan, the resulting logjam will only spike the ceasefire violations. Therefore, India must work towards breaking the linkage policy and compartmentalise issues. This will prove to be an uphill task. Setting a specific agenda for negotiations in the case of ceasefire violations and developing a framework could be a possible way of compartmentalising the large scale problems between the neighbours. The agenda covered by the numerous peace talks held between the two states has often been large and reflective of the policy of linkage. Hence, limiting the agenda of the talks and delinking issues could in the long run opens space for negotiation.

*Ramya P.S is Research Fellow, International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore. She can be reached at contributions@spsindia.in

The post Talking To Pakistan: India Must Tread Middle Path, Simplify Issues – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

India: Maoist Decimation In West Bengal – Analysis

0
0

By Deepak Kumar Nayak*

The Maoists, who were rampaging across the Jungal Mahal region of West Bengal in 2009-10, appear to be in no position to do anything to revive the movement in the State after the body blows that they suffered with the killing of politburo member Mallojula Koteswara Rao aka Kishanji, on November 24, 2011.

Maoist activities have come to complete halt in the State since then. According to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), West Bengal recorded zero fatalities in all categories in 2014 and, so far, in 2015. According to Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) data, not even a single incident of Maoist violence was recorded in West Bengal in 2014, while just one incident was recorded in 2013.

The abrupt decline in Maoist activities is confirmed further by a range of other parameters:

Other Parameters of LWE/CPI-Maoist Violence in West Bengal: 2011-2014

Parameters

2011
2012
2013
2014

No. of incidents

92
6
1
0

Police Informers’ Killed (Out of total civilians killed)

11
0
0
0

No. of encounters with police

18
3
0
0

No. of attacks on police (including landmines)

2
1
0
0

No. of Naxalites arrested

238
76
21
6

No. of Naxalites surrendered

15
26
0
3

Total no. of arms snatched

0
0
0
0

Total no. of arms recovered

74
51
40
17

Arms training camps held

10
0
0
0

No of Jan Adalats held

1
0
0
0
Source: MHA

Police inflicted further damage on the Maoists with the arrest of Anup Roy, a CPI-Maoist ‘State Committee’ member, from the Sealdah area of Kolkata District on January 29, 2014. Another top CPI-Maoist leader, Arvind Bachhar (45), wanted in a number of cases including that of a major blast in the Jhitka Forest of Jhargram in West Midnapore District, was arrested from Baduria in North 24 Parganas District on July 27, 2014.

On June 18, 2014, Police seized 500 detonators and 600 gelatine sticks from a car near Tetulgram village under Kotshila Police Station of Purulia District and arrested two persons, identified as Subal Mahato and Jaladhar Dwari.

On April 18, 2014, two gelatine sticks fitted with detonators were recovered from a main road, about six km from the venue of Trinamool Congress (TMC) chairperson and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s rally at Suri in Birbhum District.

On her part, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has visited Jungal Mahal many times to generate faith in people’s minds and to accelerate development. Media assessments indicate that there is little sign of any popular discontentment against her rule in the Jungal Mahal region.

There have, however, been some reports suggesting Maoist plans to revive their movement in the State. Hinting that CPI-Maoist is trying to regroup in the Junglemahal area of West Bengal, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) officers disclosed that the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) were keeping a close watch on inputs about movement of various Maoist leaders in the area. On November 14, 2014, Vivek Sahay, Inspector General (CRPF) West Bengal Sector stated, “I won’t say that Maoists are not trying to regroup in Bengal. We get inputs that Maoists leader Ranjit Pal and others are moving here and there in Jungal Mahal… We are on high alert. We have our six battalions placed here. But let me tell you one thing, the situation in Jungal Mahal is much better than it was two-three years back.”

On all current indicators, it is clear that the Maoists are in no position to execute an effective plan for their revival in the Jungal Mahal region. However, with the challenging topography of the area, there is no scope for any complacency on parts the SFs, even as Maoist efforts to capitalize on any opportunity can be expected to continue.

*Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The post India: Maoist Decimation In West Bengal – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Afghan Peace Process: Marred By Short-Sightedness – Analysis

0
0

By Divya Kumar Soti*

The Afghan government is getting ready to talk peace with the Afghan Taliban, sponsored by Pakistan’s military intelligence establishment and facilitated by China. The new peace process has the backing of the United States and a major role has been carved out for China, which is seen and trusted by Pakistan as custodian of its strategic interests. A delegation of Afghan Taliban leaders recently visited Beijing to discuss the modalities of the proposed talks. The Obama administration has warmly welcomed the entry of China into Afghanistan’s diplomatic sphere and think tanks in Washington are busy formulating various justifications and benefits of China taking up a major role in Afghanistan.

The major justification of China mediating the talks has been made out to be Chinese interest in Afghan stability as growing Islamism is spreading to its troubled Xinjiang province. However, the fact remains that China’s border with Afghanistan is just 93 km long, which can be easily monitored and much of the radicalization in Xinjiang is permeating through Pakistan and Turkey.

Regarding the diplomatic reach of China inside Afghanistan, veteran Afghanistan scholar in the US and key advocate of Chinese role in the latest peace process, Barnett Rubin himself acknowledged to New York Times that “Chinese have less personal contact and weaker personal relationships with Afghan political actors than officials and others from the US, Pakistan, Iran, Russia or India”. Clearly, China has been roped in with the sole purpose of taking care of Pakistan’s concerns and adding weight to Islamabad’s viewpoints.

Assigning a major role to China, which has so far been largely absent from the troubled nation and had made minimal efforts in stabilizing Afghanistan since 2001, underlines the difficult foreign policy choices President Barack Obama faces in Afghanistan. While President Obama will be remembered in history as the leader who brought American troops back home from a long-drawn frustrating war, with current developments in the Af-Pak region he also faces a risk of being blamed for yet another foreign policy and national security debacle emerging from a messed up Afghanistan.

The Obama administration seems to be in eagerness to find a quick-fix solution which can provide justification to Obama’s Afghan policy and somehow save the Obama administration from larger redeployment of US forces due to the worsening Afghan security situation as has been indicated by new Pentagon Chief Ash Carter during his recent trip to Kabul. Putting it in short, the Obama administration seems to be in the lookout for short term peace in Afghanistan. And in this eagerness Washington has totally yielded to Pakistan’s demands of keeping India and Iran out of the reconciliation process despite the fact that both these countries have larger contributions and stakes in the stabilization of Afghanistan than China.

The new peace process conceived by President Ashraf Ghani ultimately aims at reaching a power sharing deal with the Afghan Taliban. This latest peace process is as superficial as the previous ones because it does not demand an ideological course correction from Taliban. The Afghan Taliban remains committed to ultra-radical version of Deobandi Islam and had championed a barbaric medieval theocratic state in Afghanistan during its days in power where public flogging, stoning, beheadings and iconoclasm were perpetrated by the state machinery. Today the Islamic State is repeating just that in Iraq and Syria.

And there is no evidence of any change in Taliban’s behavior in recent times. For instance, an UN Assistance Mission report released on February 18 this year said that 72% of Afghan civilian causalities are attributable to Taliban and allied terrorist groups. The report also noted that the number of civilians killed or wounded in fighting in Afghanistan jumped 22 percent last year to 10,548, the highest level in five years.

Some critics of peace talks with the Taliban like former Afghan Intelligence chief Amarullah Saleh are of the view that laying down of arms needs to be made the benchmark of Taliban’s sincerity regarding the democratic set up. Though that is of course an important standard, an even more important standard will be a public declaration from the Afghan Taliban effecting ideological course correction and repudiation of its commitment to establish a theocratic Islamist State.

The importance of such an ideological declaration is evident from the experience of Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood. Though the Muslim Brotherhood had renounced the use of violent means to achieve political ends as early as 1949 and was a key participant in the Tahrir Square agitation against the Hosni Mubarak regime, when it came to power after participating in the 2012 presidential elections it was soon found trying to impose an Islamist Constitution and its members were found to be indulging in attacks on Christians and other minorities. Leading Middle East expert Yasmine El Rashidi described this as an “Islamist Coup”. Soon Egypt’s powerful military had to intervene to save the country from plunging into utter chaos. All this happened because despite giving up violence and participating in the electoral process, the Muslim Brotherhood remained ideologically committed to the cause of establishing a theocratic Islamist State.

In comparison to Muslim Brotherhood, the Taliban continues to be an extremely violent and highly armed militia sponsored and controlled by Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment and an instrumentality in achieving the Pakistan Army’s aim of “strategic depth” through a widespread terror campaign in Afghanistan. Unlike Muslim Brotherhood, Taliban has never participated in any civilian agitation nor has it shown any faith in the electoral process which it terms as “against Islam”. In recent times, the leadership of Al-Qaeda and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has reiterated allegiance to the chief of Afghan Taliban, Mullah Mohammed Omar. One may easily guess what power sharing with the Taliban, without an ideological revocation by it, may culminate into.

With limited government writ in rural Afghanistan, monitoring and enforcement of arms surrender by the Taliban is an almost impossible task if at all the group agrees to it. Instead of talking to a jihadist Taliban, which is constantly carrying out terrorist strikes against innocent Afghan civilians, it will be better for the Ashraf Ghani-Abdullah Abdullah administration to concentrate on strengthening the roots of democracy – by providing a stable effective government, rewarding the groups which took part in the electoral process, addressing the inter-ethnic rivalries and arranging crossovers from a militarily sidelined Taliban. This will be a better long-term approach which will ensure lasting peace.

The power sharing arrangement with Taliban cannot last for long as organizations like it seek to zealously enforce their model of an exclusivist Islamist order. Power sharing in a democratic set up may just be an interim avenue for them to strengthen themselves.

*Divya Kumar Soti is an independent national security and strategic affairs analyst based in India. He can be contacted at contributions@spsindia.in

The post Afghan Peace Process: Marred By Short-Sightedness – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

France: Majority Don’t Support ‘Spanking Law’

0
0

A minority of French, or about 30 percent, supported banning the corporal punishment of children via legislation, according to the results of a latest survey.

Only 27 percent of men and 33 percent of women showed support for banning spanking or slapping children in France, according to a survey conducted by Le Figaro, the result of which was released on Friday. The survey polled 1,050 French adults.

On March 4, the Council of Europe, an international organization that defends human rights in Europe, ruled that France is in violation of European rules regarding the use of corporal punishment for children.

The council found France not in compliance with the Revised European Social Charter, an agreement signed by 43 states in Europe, on the grounds that “smacking” as punishment is not “prohibited in a sufficiently clear, binding and precise manner under French law or case-law.”

The council made the ruling about two years after the British charity Approach, a child protection organization, lodged a complaint accusing France of violating the European Social Charter.

The complaint revived a debate over corporal punishment in France, where smacking or spanking is nothing illegal except in school or in prison, but the right of parents to correct their children’s behavior.

Public opinion has been divided over the necessity to ban violence against children through legislation, with the majority of French adults fail to agree with the ruling of the Council of Europe, several media reports have revealed.

Laurence Rossignol, France’s Secretary of State for the family, said in an interview earlier that she does not think legislation on banning corporal punishment of children is necessary.

The post France: Majority Don’t Support ‘Spanking Law’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Brazil: Petrobras Scandal, Demonstrations In Various Cities

0
0

Hundreds of thousands of people – up to 1.5 million according to the organizers – took the streets in various cities of Brazil to demonstrate over the difficult economic situation and corruption scandal engulfing state-run oil firm Petrobras. Prosecutors are investigating various officials of President Dilma Rousseff’s majority party.

The demonstrations were staged in various cities, from Brasilia to Salvador de Bahia and Rio de Janeirio, though the media reports that the most significant was in Sao Paulo, the nation’s economic capital and opposition stronghold, where over 1.5 million took the streets with their faces painted green and yellow, the colours of Brazil’s flag.

Dilma, who January 1 began her second term in office, last week warned the opposition against using the scandal to seek her impeachment and new elections.

The demonstrations come following similar marches in support of President Rousseff and her Workers Party (PT) on Friday.

The post Brazil: Petrobras Scandal, Demonstrations In Various Cities appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Revival Of India-US ICT Working Group: Significance For India – Analysis

0
0

By Raul Jain*

The India-U.S. ICT Working Group (WG) met in Washington D.C. on January 14-15, 2015 after a long gap since its establishment in 2005. A welcomed development, the WG provides an institutional platform to bring forth and discuss ICT related issues and developments. Given that both the U.S. and India have many common interests as far as the ICT sector is concerned, this platform can be leveraged to strengthen business ties as well as establish common understanding on various global issues including those related to cyber security, privacy, cross-border data flows and internet governance.

The WG meetings were enthused by the flagship projects of the Modi government-‘Digital India’ and ‘Make in India’ – and the excitement on both sides was quite palpable. While the Digital India project promises new business opportunities for the U.S. tech industry, it is widely understood and appreciated that the Indian government would need assistance of U.S. tech companies in making the project successful. With regard to’ Make in India’, the message from the U.S. industry is clear – India needs to resolve many internal issues including those related to taxation, inverted duty structures and mandatory local manufacturing among others, to eventually make India a competitive and attractive destination for manufacturing. To this effect, India highlighted the steps being taken by the Indian government for addressing the issues. These included incentives provided by the government to the industry for setting up manufacturing facilities in India.

Not surprisingly, while there were spectrum of issues raised by the U.S. side (including those pertaining to FDI in e-commerce, telecom licensing reforms, telecom equipment security testing, spectrum availability, optical fibre layout, encryption standards, satellite commerce, product safety certification, among others), the Indian side raised the core legacy issue of immigration and totalization. In this context, “the U.S. side noted the Indian concerns with regard to mobility of skilled Indian professionals, and agreed that the U.S. government will continue to engage on visa issues for skilled professionals”1

Effective engagement by India

While the above issues will take multiple rounds of discussions and actions to get resolved- if at all, India needs to explore how it can best leverage this platform to its own advantage. Projects like Digital India, which include development of smart cities, now provide strategic levers to India (which were perhaps not available erstwhile) to better negotiate on its issues and bargain with the U.S. India needs to create mirror platform(s) in the country in collaboration with industry bodies to identify range of issues, in addition to those related to immigration, which can be brought forth in this forum. A crucial issue raised in this regard related to difficulties faced by the Indian law enforcement authorities in getting lawful access to data stored in the ‘cloud’ (many of cloud providers are U.S. based companies and the data is stored in the U.S.)and the need to address this issue through bilateral or multilateral dialogue or actions. A more proactive scanning of the ICT related policy environment in the U.S. needs to be done by India to identify existing or possible issues.

As a case in point, President Obama recently announced some legal proposals regarding privacy protection. Assessing how these will impact the Indian industry would require some homework, so that, an alarm (if any), is raised in the WG. Further, to effectively engage in this platform, India needs to build internal processes for issue identification, prioritization, consultation, coordination and authorization; and find ways to enhance collaboration among government agencies, between government and industry and within industry; with the unified aim of taking well-informed, well-debated, and consensus-driven national positions in this forum.

Opportunities for both sides

As highlighted previously, the U.S. and Indian ICT industry have many common interests in terms of how technologies are adopted around the world, and the potential role played by governments. Hence, while the WG is leveraged to address bilateral issues, it is also an important platform for both sides to better comprehend each other’s positions and concerns and establish synergies when pursuing global opportunities or engaging in global issues, such as, cross-border data flows, cyber security, internet governance and e-commerce, among other contemporary issues.

For example, restrictions imposed by governments on cross-border data flows are bound to negatively impact business prospects of ICT industries of both sides, particularly in the light of cloud computing, Internet of Things and Machine to Machine (M2M) technologies. The two countries can also ensure that any efforts taken by either country to discourage governments to restrict data flows are well aligned. In such cases, U.S. can in fact share its learning with India, given its success in negotiating a safe harbour with the EU, whereas India is still in negotiating mode for ‘adequacy’ status.

An additional area where both countries will need better alignment, is related to WTO discussions on e-commerce where the U.S. has mooted a proposal which calls for discussion on mandatory data or ICT infrastructure localization, restrictions on cross-border data flows, need for distinction between cloud and telecom services -among other issues that have direct or indirect bearing on the e-commerce business. Yet another contentious issue is one of internet governance where U.S. would like India to support the western position of maintaining a multi-stakeholder model. It is plausible that U.S. can use the WG as a platform to pressurize or influence Indian thinking. The lack of a well-consulted and consistent national position on internet governance, which takes into account various facets of internet adoption in the country, makes the situation more challenging for India.

India’s strategy on ICT engagement

In this light, India will have to diligently craft its strategy when engaging with the U.S. on ICT matters. Any such strategy will have to be in sync with its economic interests (the outsourcing sector as well as the other domestic sectors) and national security interests. An ideal bilateral dialogue or negotiation should be a win-win proposition for both in all respects, i.e., issues should not be one sided, benefits should be mutual and both parties should emerge as equals. In this respect, the India-U.S. ICT WG will be a testing ground for India.

*The author works as a Principal Consultant at the Data Security Council of India (DSCI).

Courtesy: ORF Cyber Monitor, March Issue

1. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/01/236080.htm

The post Revival Of India-US ICT Working Group: Significance For India – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Pakistan: FATA Exercises In Futility – Analysis

0
0

By Tushar Ranjan Mohanty*

At least 48 ‘terrorists’ were killed [with media access severely restricted, no independent confirmation is available, and the categorization of those killed cannot be verified] on March 13, 2015, as Pakistan Air Force (PAF) jets pounded alleged terrorist hideouts in the Kukikhel area of the Tirah Valley in the Khyber Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Military sources claimed that another 15 terrorists were also injured in the jet bombing. The attack comes after exactly a month of silence in the ongoing Operation Khyber-I in the Khyber Agency. On February 12, 2015, seven suspected terrorists were killed and another 15 were injured in PAF air strikes on terrorist hideouts in the Dwa Thoe, Sarrai, Sheikh Kot, Tor Darra, Nangrosa and Speen Drand areas of Tirah Valley in the Khyber Agency. The air strikes were part of Operation Khyber-I in the Khyber Agency launched on October 16, 2014, alongside the full-fledged Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet) going on in the North Waziristan Agency (NWA).

The air attack occurs at a time when various splinter groups of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are merging to counter the ongoing military operations in NWA and Khyber Agency. According to a statement issued by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) ‘spokesman’ Ehsanullah Ehsan on March 12, 2015, the reorganized TTP would consist of members of his group, Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) and the remaining TTP elements. The head of the new set-up is yet to be named. Ehsan congratulated the “Mujahideen of Pakistan” on the unification of the various militant groups and disclosed that the decision was taken at a meeting attended by Mullah Fazlullah, Omar Khalid Khurasani and Mangal Bagh. Ehsan added that an organising committee had been formed to constitute a central supreme Shura (Council) and an organising body.

Earlier on the same day, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Raheel Sharif and Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Tahir Rafique Butt together visited NWA, and were briefed about the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb. General Sharif declared that the fleeing terrorists would be chased and eliminated, as there was no place for them to hide now. He added that Operation Zarb-e-Azb would not stop till the job was finished.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched on June 15, 2014, in the aftermath of the attack on the Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, on June 8-9, 2014. At least 33 persons, including all 10 attackers, were killed in the Karachi attack. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), thus far killed more than 1,516 terrorists and 204 soldiers (no independent verification of fatalities of identities of those killed is available, as media access to the areas of conflict is severely limited). Major General Asim Saleem Bajwa, Director General (DG) of Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), on January 16, 2015, claimed that SFs had killed 2,000 ‘terrorists’ under Operation Zarb-e-Azb, and also disclosed that 200 soldiers had been killed and another 800 had sustained injuries.

At least 411 persons, including 356 terrorists, 35 civilians, and 20 SF personnel, have already been killed in FATA in terrorism-related violence in 2015 (till March 15), according to partial data compiled by the SATP. During the corresponding period of 2014, terrorism-linked fatalities stood at 282, including 213 terrorists, 44 SF personnel and 25 civilians, indicating a rise of 45.74 per cent.

Though civilian and SF fatalities in FATA have recorded a seven years decline, overall fatalities have been higher due to the increase in terrorist fatalities under the ongoing military Operations in NWA and Khyber Agency. Total fatalities through 2014 stood at 2,863, including 2,510 terrorists, 194 SF personnel and 159 civilians; as compared to 1,716, including 1,199 terrorists, 319 civilians and 198 SF personnel in 2013.

Fatalities in FATA: 2006-2015*

Years

Civilians
SFs
Militants
Total

2006

109
144
337
590

2007

424
243
1014
1681

2008

1116
242
1709
3067

2009

636
350
4252
5238

2010

540
262
4519
5321

2011

488
233
2313
3034

2012

549
306
2046
2901

2013

319
198
1199
1716

2014

159
194
2510
2863

2015

35
20
356
411

Total

4375
2192
20255
26822
Source: SATP, *Data till March 15, 2015

The number of major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) in the Province in 2014 increased by 48.87 per cent in comparison to the previous year, principally due to the counter-insurgency operations. The Province accounted for 198 major incidents of violence resulting in 2,709 deaths in 2014, as against 133 such incidents, accounting for 1,534 fatalities in 2013.

However, other parameters of violence, such as suicide attacks, explosions and sectarian attacks remained low throughout 2014. As against nine suicide attacks in 2013, in which 164 persons were killed and another 256 were injured, 2014 registered only three such attacks, resulting in 17 deaths and 17 persons injured. Similarly, there was a considerable decrease in incidents of explosion. In comparison to 122 blasts resulting in 385 fatalities in 2013, 2014 recorded 101 blasts resulting in 179 fatalities. Sectarian violence in the region also registered a steep decline. While both the year 2013 and 2014 had recorded only one such incident, the 2014 incident registered two fatalities and 28 injuries, while 62 were killed and 180 injured in the 2013 incident.

Under pressure from the United States (US) to act against terrorists, Pakistan resumed drone strikes in NWA on June 12, 2014, after a hiatus of nearly five and half months. The last drone target before this had been hit on December 25, 2013. The silencing of US drones coincided with Islamabad’s Government’s process of peace-talks with TTP, while the resumption of strikes followed the collapse of talks with TTP. Pakistan announced of long-pending military operations in NWA, where dreaded terrorists of al Qaeda, the Haqqani Network and Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction of TTP were sheltered, though reports indicate that the strikes have targeted TTP alone. All 19 drone strikes in 2014 have been concentrated in FATA, around the areas where the Army has been conducting its Operation. Nevertheless, Pakistan continues with its duplicitous policy on drone strikes, implicitly approving these, while it registers complaints at every possible international forum.

Meanwhile, terrorist attacks on NATO supply convoys through Pakistan continued, though, with the continuous decline in the Western presence in Afghanistan, and the consequent reduction of dependence on supplies through Pakistan, the numbers have reduced significantly. Out of 18 attacks on NATO supply trucks in 2014, nine incidents were reported from FATA alone. In 2013 FATA accounted for 10 out of 31 such attacks across the country.

TTP’s attacks on educational institutions in the region also registered a decline. As against 12 such attacks in 2013, there were six such attacks in 2014. On April 1, 2014, the Government claimed a limited increase in literacy rates in FATA. A handout quoting an official document stated: “Literacy rate for girls stands at a modest 10.5 per cent compared to 36.66 per cent for boys, despite considerable expenditure incurred by the FATA Secretariat to improve education statistics in the area.” Earlier, literacy rates for girls and boys were three per cent and 29.51 per cent, respectively.

An estimated 150,000 families displaced by the military operations in the NWA and Khyber Agency are still languishing in make shift camps at Bannu. More than 10 months have passed since the military operation began and Pakistan has failed to provide adequate assistance to the affected internally displaced persons (IDPs). While Army authorities had claimed the clearing of 90 per cent areas of terrorists by November 16, 2014, the FATA Disaster Management Authority (FDMA) observed, on March 2, 2015, that it had decided to tentatively send back IDP families to just 29 NWA and Khyber Agency villages by the end of March 2015.

Government infrastructures worth PKR one billion have been turned into rubble in conflict-stricken NWA, according to a FATA Line Departments (combining the Health, Education, Irrigation and Agriculture Departments) report of December 31, 2014. The Line Departments of the Civil Secretariat, FATA, carried out a damage need assessment survey of Government owned properties in Mir Ali and Miranshah sub-divisions of NWA. The survey of damaged infrastructure was conducted after SFs had cleared these areas of terrorists. The report claimed that 115 facilities, including education and health establishments, and 102 kilometres of roads, had been either completely or partially damaged in the areas surveyed.

Terrorism and the disproportionate use of force by the state have caused massive collateral damage to property (and to life) in other tribal agencies as well. In August 2014, a damage need assessment survey carried out under the supervision of the FATA FDMA revealed that over 60,000 houses had been damaged in Orakzai, Khyber, South Waziristan and Kurram agencies. A total of 31 educational institutions (six institutions 100 per cent damaged, nine institutions 50 per cent and 16 institutions 20 per cent), eight health facilities, two buildings of the works and services department, 13 facilities of livestock, seven agriculture, eight public health engineering, 35 municipal committee buildings, including 21 shops, two sports facilities and 19 irrigation department establishments had also been damaged.

Federal Finance Minister Ishaq Dar disclosed, on February 18, 2015, that the cost of ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan may exceed USD 1.3 billion. Dar claimed that the Pakistani Government had already spent USD 400 million on the operation and IDPs.

Despite the hype, the Operations in NWA and Khyber Agency have failed to destroy the organisational network and leadership of the terrorists. This has repeatedly been demonstrated in their capacity to perpetrate carnage, as in the Peshawar Army Public School attack and the bloodbath of innocent Shias at Imambargah (Shia place of worship) in Peshawar. Pakistan is yet to make a decisive break from its long sustained strategy of supporting terrorist groups operating against Indian and Afghanistan, and the linkages of these groups with domestic terrorists operating within the country are growing progressively deeper and more complex. Despite some losses that TTP has suffered, it is likely to rise again out of the rubble that bombardments and drone strikes have created in FATA.

*Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The post Pakistan: FATA Exercises In Futility – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Does Anybody Care About The People Of Ukraine Anymore? – OpEd

0
0

By David Kowalski*

It seems like holding emergency meetings to deal with the Ukrainian crisis has become the daily grind for the EU and the US. However, the continuous attacks of the rebel forces in the East, one year after the Maidan Protests ended only show that the West still has no clue on how to stop the crisis. As the separatists poke holes in the cease fire, further sanctions on Russia are being discussed, never mind that this approach has not worked so far. Once again, the West is on the verge of underestimating Putin`s determination to keep Ukraine within Moscow’s sphere of influence.

It’s time for the West to refocus its foreign policy away from confrontation and towards ensuring economic prosperity for Ukraine, especially for the troubled Donbass region – failing to do so will likely result in a victory for Moscow.

A recent report of the House of Lords EU Committee claims that Europe “sleepwalked into the crisis.” The report points out that the UK and the EU completely misread Moscow`s intentions. Probably western leaders thought that while Putin’s style seemed awfully extravagant, Russia was slowly moving towards a more cooperative relationship with Europe and the US. However, the Ukrainian crisis has shown that Putin’s agenda prioritizes, first and foremost, are Moscow’s interests rather than playing by the rules set by the West.

The EU and the UK especially underestimated Putin’s seriousness about keeping Ukraine governed by a Russia-friendly government. The West expected that it was just a matter of time until the first round of sanctions combined with low oil prices were going to corner Russia into giving up Ukraine. It doesn’t seem like Putin cares so much for political or economic isolation. If the price of controlling Russia’s backyard is becoming a pariah in the G8, Putin is more than willing to pay it. Meanwhile, even if the Russian economy took a hit, Putin’s nationalistic discourses have won him steady high approval ratings at home and the ruble just registered its strongest month since 1993.

Earlier this year, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini’s contemplation to restore normal EU-Russia relations only shows the West’s ambivalence in their foreign policy. Meanwhile, John Kerry openly accepted that on multiple occasions Moscow has “lied to his face” about Russia’s involvement in East Ukraine. If anyone is winning this battle so far is Putin. Moscow knows that Ukraine does not have the military capacity to face a Russian-backed separatist movement and despite a somewhat cheerful support to arm Ukraine, it’s highly unlikely that the US will take that risk.

While Western leaders continue deliberating what will be the next step should the Minsk cease fire is breached, it seems like Moscow still has many cards to play. Russia has played the energy card once again threatening to cut natural gas supplies to Kiev. Europe might not be as affected since their consumption will drop come spring but it shows that Putin is committed to keep on playing this game. Furthermore Russia has recently warmed up to Iran, offering to selling Teheran anti-aircraft missiles in spite of a UN embargo. The West might have its sanctions but Moscow has been playing under different rules all along.

An offer Donetsk cannot refuse

If 2014 was a hard year for Kiev, the situation in 2015 is not likely to improve. Certainly those who are suffering most are the residents of the Donbass region who are caught between the conflict and economic isolation. Humanitarian conditions in Donetsk are rapidly deteriorating; those who have not been able to flee the area are being left in limbo. Even if Russia miraculously backs off, Kiev would have to significantly invest in rebuilding the east.

The West needs to try a different strategy altogether. Instead of obsessing with Russia, Western leaders must offer something that Moscow can’t give to Donetsk: economic development. An economically stable Ukraine can be Moscow’s biggest defeat. But so far little attention has been given to how Kiev is planning to use this economic support to solve the crisis. Economic growth can be the key to restoring the east’s pro-Ukrainian sympathies, neglecting the region will only aggravate the crisis and build a stronger support for Russia and separatism.

In a recent interview, Petro Poroshenko suggested he was willing to give Donbas a Special Economic Status (SEZ) if they hold elections under Ukrainian law. If he is serious about this offer, the Ukrainian president might have found a lead into changing the course of the crisis. Former Ukrainian Minister of Tax and revenue Oleksandr Klymenko, who is a native of Donetsk himself, believes that granting a SEZ would alleviate the tensions and transform the region into a bridge between Russia and Europe while maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Klymenko, who has voiced his support for an integrated Ukraine, is one of the main supporters of this solution. The former minister is one of the individuals facing sanctions for his association with the Yanukovych government but his support for Poroshenko’s proposal shows that, if dialogue can be reached, Ukrainians are better off working together than fighting each other. Giving a special status would not only ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine –which theoretically is the West’s main interest – but it would also provide a long term solution towards reconciling the differences between eastern and western Ukrainians.

Before rushing into another round of sanctions or even consider arming Kiev, the West should play its cards smartly. To out-bid Moscow, the US and the EU must change their aggressive strategy and opt for honey instead of vinegar.

*David Kowalski is based in Brussels and is a former European civil servant now working as an independent policy analyst.

The post Does Anybody Care About The People Of Ukraine Anymore? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

India-China Ties: Time For Positive-Sum Outcome? – Analysis

0
0

By Reeta Tremblay*

The Indian foreign policy agenda of actively engaging with India’s immediate (South Asia) and extended neighbourhood (East and Southeast Asia) is being brought back on track with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka.

This visit comes on the heels of Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar’s successful four-nation SAARC Yatra to Bhutan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan. While strengthening economic and military ties with these three countries, Modi’s tour is aimed towards the pursuance of India’s strategic security agenda. Under the new foreign policy paradigm, as enunciated by Modi and his team, India must reclaim both the diplomatic and security space in its own neighbourhood which, over the years, India had voluntarily abandoned to China. There is a general perception that neglect of the neighbourhood has allowed China to acquire a powerful presence along with the concomitant vanishing of India’s footprint in South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

India is paying particular attention to China’s proposed plan for a 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, connecting China’s coastline with critical locations in South and Southeast Asia, the coast of Africa, the Gulf and the Mediterranean. Three Chinese commercial port projects – Gawadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Kyaukyu in Myanmar – have alarmed India about Beijing’s strategic ambitions in the Indian Ocean. China has also cultivated relations with Mauritius, the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Seychelles. In September 2014, en route to India, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Sri Lanka and the Maldives and obtained support from both countries for Beijing’s plan for the Maritime Silk Road but could not get India on board. India’s challenge remains how, without blocking China’s plans, it can nevertheless actively participate in shaping the agenda and ensure that its security is not compromised.

Should India be concentrating on countering China’s influence and playing a zero-sum game or should it devise a foreign policy strategy which could lead to a positive-sum outcome? While recognizing it as the world’s leading economic power, India perceives China to be the most significant and difficult challenge within its economic and strategic policy agenda. It also recognizes that India’s problems with Pakistan can be alleviated with China’s intervention, particularly in the areas of terrorism and the Kashmir issue.

There are longstanding border issues with China – Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. On the one hand, India is playing tough with China on the border issue in order to respond to Chinese border incursions. Its plans include building 54 new border posts and a new 3,000-km road along the India-China border. Moreover, it has increased its defence spending; including a new allocation of $8 billion to build India’s most advanced warships to close the gap with the Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean. Yet, on the other hand, recently, in preparation for Modi’s May visit to China, Sushma Swaraj, minister for external affairs, had a successful dialogue in Beijing with her counterpart Wang Yi and President Xi himself. Her six-point framework outlining an “action-oriented” and “out-of-box” approach to bilateral engagement and to the border disputes was well received. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has reiterated that positive efforts on the border disputes are being made by both countries and he compared the discussions to climbing a mountain, where the going can be tough but “we are on the way up”.

On the economic front, China is one of India’s top trading partners. During President Xi’s visit, both countries set a target of increasing bilateral trade from $65 billion to $100 billion by 2015 with China opening up its markets to Indian products to help deal with India’s trade deficit. China has warmed up to India’s bid for a permanent seat in an expanded UN Security Council, and is also lobbying for India to become a full member in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China, for its part, would like to be a full member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and is waiting for India to agree.

A positive-sum outcome approach seems to be in the making for both India and China. India might not have much choice given the new policy stance being adopted by Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s new government under President Maithripala Sirisena has clearly articulated that it intends to adopt a balanced approach towards India and China, abandoning its previous pro-China tilt. Afghanistan is leaning on China to use its influence on Pakistan to stop its military support for the Afghan Taliban and instead bring them to the negotiating table. Beijing is of the view that reconciliation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a key to stability in the region and to mitigating extremist militancy.

This thinking is shared by Afghanistan’s new President Ashraf Ghani. In the wake of the Peshawar school children massacre, Pakistan appears now to be committed to deal with its own homegrown militant violence. A new regional dynamics is beginning to shape up in South Asia. India and China might have no choice but to participate in, something like, integrative bargaining, whereby paradoxically, the more difficult and competing the interests brought to the table for discussion, the more likely a positive-sum outcome is to emerge.

*Reeta Tremblay is Professor of Political Science at the University of Victoria in British Columbia and a specialist on Kashmir and India-Pakistan relations. She can be contacted at reeta@uvic.ca

The post India-China Ties: Time For Positive-Sum Outcome? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Greece: Breaking Out Of The Euro Prison – OpEd

0
0

Slaying the Euro monitaur is not easy. Greeks have been suffering for years now, having learned the hard way that prosperity with shiny euros in their hands was not miraculously just waiting around the corner. What was waiting was a hoard of German bankers, eager to buy up Greek islands for winter vacations, sleazy banks eager to syphon Greek earnings into offshore accounts, and more schemes by high financiers.

The poor are mere pawns in this game, and even when they elect a radical anti-Euro government, their politicians are strong-armed into acceding to bailout plans, in hopes that the anger will abate and the ‘euro march will proceed apace.

This continues, with the current Greek party in power SYRIZA (from the roots).

Its success has sent shock-waves across the EU though it claims to support Europeanism — they voted for the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, but there is Europeanism and Eurovanadalism. SYRIZA’s National Reconstruction Plan calls for confronting the humanitarian crisis, restarting the economy and promoting tax justice, a national plan to regain employment and transforming the political system to deepen democracy.

At the European level, the program demands a “European New Deal” of large-scale public investment by the European Investment Bank, extended quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, and a conference for the reduction of Greek and southern European debt modeled on the London Debt Agreement of 1953.

Domestically, the program sets out a “National Reconstruction Plan” based on the rebuilding and extending of the welfare state, and the strengthening of democratic institutions alongside the implementation of forms of direct democracy. These policies would be financed through revenues raised by combating tax evasion and appropriating European funds from bodies such as the Structural Funds and Cohesion Fund.

This would mean a dissolution of the present corporate EU and the advent of a people’s EU where nations are respected — a delightful maze of gardens minus the ogre. Hardly the dream of smug Euro minotaurs and their fiery chimeras.

Marches protesting the economic plight of the people are expected to grow and lead to further violence throughout Europe, with Greece as the prequel. Suddenly, the specter of the end of the EU, certainly the end of the common currency, is being raised. Coined to convince the “free world” of the dangers of Communism, the domino effect is back with a vengeance.

The string pullers over the past two decades managed to transform the face of Europe, destroying the Soviet Union and expanding the EU and NATO rapidly eastward. But just as Napoleon and Hitler before them, the over- confident conquerors moved too far too fast, and now face the prospect of losing everything. The marvel of the euro zone is now derided as the Völker-Kerker (prison of nations) recalling the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Italian journalists have begun to talk of Europe’s “Tequila Crisis”, referring to the collapse of Mexico’s peso in 1993 when the elite took their money to the US. A similar capital flight from Club Med could set off an unstoppable process and even bring the euro down.

What is the euro, except a fixed exchange rate agreement among members? Skeptics have always dismissed it as a dangerous strait-jacket, since Europe is far from uniform. It means national governments are highly restricted in their monetary and fiscal policies to deal with crises. It also means that ripples in Europe become tidal waves, as all the countries’ economic successes or failures happen together.

This is fine if governments are united in pursuing a common agenda to promote stability and prosperity for the common Europeans, but neoliberalism allows for no such political will. The common economic space has merely allowed large companies and banks to take control of the whole market, supposedly to be equal competitors to their big brothers in the US, China and elsewhere.

But riding the wave of privatization and euro-expansion, they threw caution to the winds, with no strong national governments to clip their wings. The EU “government” is exposed as worse than useless, a rubber stamp for this Thatcherite mania, fooling Europeans into thinking there was someone controlling the private chaos.

If the steely-nerved bankers can stay the course, the pay-off is potentially immense. IF they can throw enough money at Greece to keep it inside and calm the waters. But other nations are lining up. Cyprus, Italy, Spain for starters. In contrast, a vibrant euro alliance would mean radical reform to protect the poor. The common people provided for and the ruling party’s privileges circumscribed. But if today’s unsupervised elites keeping sending their money abroad, the pit becomes bottomless. Riots turn into revolutions.

The sunny euro-vistas of yesterday are no longer. Eastern Europe risks being eaten alive by western banks. Western Europe risks mere stagnation and endless political unrest. All indications are that this is a deadend, that the only way forward is to break the hold that the bankers’ system has on both East and West.

The idea of transforming the EU from within by radical insurgents is an intriguing one, though it is more likely that it will simply collapse and national governments will work to reconstruct a more democratic (or fascist) Europe. The bankers may keep their present lucre, but perhaps there are ways to retrieve it, as Ecuador discovered when it took them to the IMF court in 2009. The president formed an audit committee and managed to cancel two-thirds of the $13 billion debt.

Using a crisis to push through unpopular measures doesn’t work anymore, as Greek politicians have discovered. The streets are already ringing with the cry: “We won’t pay for your crisis!”

The post Greece: Breaking Out Of The Euro Prison – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sri Lanka: Cabinet Approves 19th Amendment To Constitution For Government Reforms

0
0

The Sri Lanka Cabinet that was summoned for an emergency meeting yesterday by President Maithripala Sirisena has approved the 19th Amendment to the Constitution and decided to reach a final settlement on electoral reforms on Tuesday.

A special gazette notification on limiting some powers vested the executive Presidency is reportedly scheduled to be issued soon. Accordingly, the relevant reforms would be produced in parliament for debate as a regular bill.

The proposed legislation needs to get the support of all major political parties in parliament, in order to be enacted into law.

The main constitutional proposals of the 19th Amendment include the transformation of the Presidential form of government to a Presidential-Parliamentary system of government and the restoration of the 17th Amendment to the Constitution.

The new reforms will result in the President losing the power to dissolve parliament after one year of its election. According, to the proposed reforms the President cannot dissolve the parliament until 4 years of election.

The maximum term of a President to hold office has been limited to two terms. Apart from this it has also been decided to re-appoint the independent commissions.

However, the President would remain as the head of the Cabinet, and the commander in chief of the armed forces. He would also retain the power to appoint the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. It has further been decided to reach a final decision on electoral reforms on Tuesday. The Presidential immunity from being sued over matters conducted during his period of office is to also be removed under the proposed reforms.

The post Sri Lanka: Cabinet Approves 19th Amendment To Constitution For Government Reforms appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Nepal’s Baburam Bhattarai’s Visit To India: Conflicting Signals – Analysis

0
0

By G. Padmaja*

Baburam Bhattarai, leader of the opposition Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), who is also the former prime minister, paid a visit to India in the first week of March. His visit came in the background of the inability of Nepal to pass a constitution by the January 22, 2015 deadline. Since the process of the drafting of constitution first began in April 2008, when the Constituent Assembly elections were first held, many deadlines have been missed.

The long inconclusive process is an indication of the deep divisions on important issues – the number and names of new federal units, forms of governance, model of judiciary and electoral system. Opinions differ on the manner in which these differences need to be resolved – whether through a majority vote wherein the ruling Nepali Congress- Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) will have its way or through a process of consensus as the 30 opposition parties led by UCPN(Maoist) are demanding. In such a fractured situation can any external actor influence the course of events within Nepal?

As has been reported, speaking at a roundtable discussion in Delhi, the former prime minister said that India should continue to play a role in Nepal’s peace process in the interests of the people of both the countries, but India should not be directly involved. Regarding his expectations from India, he said, it should, “create a conducive atmosphere so that political parties come together and honour past agreements and draw a constitution agreeable to all, which caters to demands of all sections of the people of Nepal and ensures peace and stability and development in Nepal and contributes to the national interests of India as well”. He said that the key role should lie in Nepalese actors and political parties. That it was important that the peace process be completed and he believed that drafting of constitution through consensus was important. He said that if there was instability in Nepal, it will adversely affect the geo-politics of the region and therefore it was in India’s interests to see a peaceful and stable Nepal.

In the light of the above observations made by Baburam Bhattarai, it is important to state that more than the impact instability within Nepal can cause or will cause to India, the loss to Nepal itself should be first estimated. The events post the Jana Andolan II of 2006 have changed the national discourse within Nepal by bringing the issues of exclusion of the marginalised sections centre stage. The long period of violent internal conflict and discontent going back to even before the Maoist insurgency began is because the political , economic and social power lay concentrated in a few. The grievances were directed to this unequal society. These have now changed to a great extent and the results of the Constituent Assembly elections held in 2008 are a proof. That the President of Nepal, Ram Baran Yadav, belongs to one of the marginalised sections is no small achievement. Debate and discussion on an inclusive agenda have become a norm rather than an exception for all political parties. However, these gains which have come out of violent struggle need to be consolidated in a peaceful manner. An inability to do so may result in these historic gains being wasted or diluted. With the number of political parties increasing, intra party differences arising within all parties, the number of leaders increasing, issues getting complicated by the day, rigid stands being adopted and spirit of accommodation being absent, there is little that external powers can do.

Baburam Bhattarai was himself not clear what exactly India can do. It should not be forgotten that there has been a trust deficit between India and the Maoists. In the 40 demands which they submitted to the government in 1996, a clear anti-India stand was taken. The Maoists blamed India for the fall of their government in May 2009. They had then termed the Madhav Kumar Nepal-led 22 party coalition government which took over as a ‘puppet of India’. Though their relations with India have positively evolved, the present internal crises needs to be resolved entirely and exclusively by Nepal. In a speech in Kathmandu in November 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said: “The constitution should be written on the basis of consensus. A constitution written on numerical basis will not be in India’s interest.” If these comments are taken out of context, it will appear that India supports a particular section of the political parties, which is not what was intended. The prime minister’s statement got mixed response and some looked upon it as interference in Nepal.

Baburam Bhattarai has rightly indicated that instability in Nepal will definitely impinge on India’s security. It is important to note that the 12-point agreement in November 2005 concluded between the Maoists and the major Nepali political parties in New Delhi had laid the ground for Maoists to enter the political mainstream and resulted in the historic Jana Andolan II of 2006. The later events of course ended monarchy and made Nepal a republic. The Maoist leaders have acknowledged that this 12-point agreement could be reached only because of India’s support, though India has never officially acknowledged any role. However, the ground situation in Nepal has transformed wherein the solution has to come from within and India has a limited if negligible role to play. India is capable of handling the security challenges which will arise in case instability in Nepal deteriorates. However, Nepal by delaying the process of drafting the constitution will be undoing the historic gains it has achieved in the inclusive debate.

Meanwhile, the news that all the political parties in Nepal have agreed to once again discuss the contentious issues is a positive sign and a movement in the right direction.

*G. Padmaja, a former United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Visiting Research Fellow at the United Nations, Geneva, is presently an independent researcher writing on SAARC and India’s Foreign Policy towards its immediate neighbours. She can be reached at sri2003ja@yahoo.com

The post Nepal’s Baburam Bhattarai’s Visit To India: Conflicting Signals – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images