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China: Xi Jinping’s Anti-Corruption Drive To Net More ‘Tigers’? – Analysis

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By D. S. Rajan*

“The fight against corruption is a long-term, complicated and arduous task. Anti-corruption efforts must be consistent and must never slacken. The Party should crack down on tigers and flies at the same time, by dealing with illegal activities of officials on the one hand and tackling malpractices and corruption cases, which closely impact people, on the other”- Xinhua, quoting the speech given by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping at the plenary meeting of the CCP Central Discipline Inspection Commission (CDIC), held on 22.1.2013

The quote mentioned above, needs to be read together with Xi Jinping’s statement made at the beginning of this year (13.1.2015) that “counter- corruption work is a matter of life-or-death for the Party. A landslide victory is yet to be won and the work is far from over”. They indeed convey a strong message that the current wave of anti-corruption campaign in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which began in late 2012, will not stop and progress further despite some domestic reservations coming to notice. Interestingly, such reservations have reportedly come from China’s leaders of previous generations, but still influential, like Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao (The Diplomat, quoting Financial Times, 4.4.2014). On their part, the Chinese party and state-controlled media (Cai Xin, 11.3.2015) have themselves admitted the existence of viewpoints in China that anti-corruption work will hamper the country’s economic development and damage reputation and image of the government. What the CDIC website has said appears to be significant. Admitting in the last week of February 2015 that some in China are calling for an end to the campaign under fears that it will go too far if continues, it hinted at the chances of the campaign covering some more targets which, as it sees, are ‘hidden by complex, interwoven political, financial and contractual relationships’. This suggests that the campaign will not fold up, but will proceed further with the objective of exposing some ‘hidden’ forces. Elaborating this point has been Xi Jinping’s attack (14.10.2014) on cliques and factions formed by some party members.

The anti- corruption campaign in China has already spread to all fields in the country – the party and government at the Centre and provinces, economy, legal system, the military and even State Owned Undertakings, national security and foreign affairs. Revealing the magnitude of the corruption-related problems in the country has been the huge number of investigation cases being officially reported. In 2014, the authorities punished 71748 officials and imposed sanctions on 270,000 cadres on corruption charges (China Daily, 7.1.2015). In particular, the cases of 68 high level officials, more than 40 of them at ministerial level and above including 4 state leaders, were investigated or closed in the same year (Xinhua, 15.1.2015). 16 senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers at the Corps level and beyond have also been brought under investigation in 2014 (english.cri.cn, 16.1.2015). The CDIC’s role within the country is widening; it has set up offices in seven central party and state organizations including the CCP General Office, Organization Department, Publicity Department and United Front Work Department. Its cells are operating in all regional party and government units including the State Owned Undertakings (Xinhua, 12.12.2014). Its inspection teams have visited all the 31 provinces/regions in the country. The CDIC’s new office of anti corruption fugitive repatriation and asset recovery, has been instrumental in bringing 500 suspected corrupt officials based overseas back to the country and recovering assets worth US$ 4. 483 million (People’s Daily, 5.3.2015).

The campaign is undeniably enjoying enormous public support. What was the need for it is not difficult to decipher. The CCP under Xi Jinping has come to realize that corruption and ideological impurity within it, are affecting its image as the ruling party and that a way has to be found to eradicate them. Not to be missed at the same time is that such conditions, perceived as negative factors to party stability, existed in China’s earlier periods also; in fact, Xi seems to be just following the footsteps of his predecessors in fighting them. Examples are Mao’s “Three-anti/Five-anti campaigns” of 1951 targeting capitalists, Deng Xiaoping’s call in 1982 to stop economic crimes to save the party and his purge in the military of those opposed to his reforms, Jiang Zemin’s “Three Stresses for Party Rectification” drive of 1998 to weed out corrupt personalities from the party like the former Beijing party secretary Chen Xitong and Hu Jintao’s stress on fighting corruption in 2004-2006, of which the Shanghai party boss Chen Liangyu was the victim. In all the cases, apparent are efforts of the concerned leaders to consolidate power by removing political opponents from the party making use of the anti-corruption drives. It cannot be denied that Xi Jinping at this juncture is making similar attempts to fully consolidate his political power. He is already the General Secretary of the CCP, President of the PRC, Chairman of the CCP and State Central Military commissions and head of the newly created National Security Council. He leads many ‘leading central groups’, dealing with important areas such as foreign affairs, financial and economic work, cyber security and information technology, and military reforms. Altogether, Xi occupies a total of 11 top posts in the country’s most powerful leadership bodies. This would mean that all institutions of the party, state council and military are now directly reporting to the CCP politburo standing Committee and thus only to Xi. As Caixin puts it (“Xi Has Vision to Guide Party to 2049”, Yang Guangbin, 16.3.15), Xi Jinping has become the defacto Chairman of the CCP.

Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has led to the purge of the ‘tigers’ like Zhou Yongkang. , a former member of the powerful CCP politburo standing committee and the former security chief of the country; Xu Caihou (now deceased), former Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission and Ling Jihua, former head of the CCP General Office. The three, along with already disgraced and sentenced Bo Xilai, former Chongqing party chief, considered once as a potential member of the politburo standing committee, are now being called by some in China as the new ‘gang of four’ (Mao’s wife Jiang Qing and three others were known as ‘gang of four’and purged in the 70s). Other ‘tigers’ who have come under graft charges include Su Rong, former Vice Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and a Zhou Yongkang loyalist; Yang Weize, former Nanjing party boss ; Qiu He, former Yunnan Deputy party chief and Zhang Kunsheng, former assistant Foreign Minister of China. More importantly, signals have appeared on identification of two more high level targets – Guo Boxiung, former politburo member and former Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and Zeng Qinghong, former Vice-President of China. Guo’s son, Major General Guo Zhenggang, deputy political commissar of Zhejiang provincial military command is already being investigated. The chances of Zeng Qinghong coming under anti-corruption probe seem to be high at the moment taking into account a historically allegorical article in the CDIC website (25.2.2015) attacking him. Zeng is believed to have been portrayed in the article as Prince Qing Yiguang who gave mahjong lessons to Empress Dowager Cixi (standing in for Jiang Zemin).

What has been said above (see para 4) shows that each succeeding regime had its own anti-corruption campaign, but with also a political purpose – elimination of party rivals, in addition to dealing with corruption as a crime. It strongly appears that Xi Jinping has repeated such past practice. Indicating the same are authoritative opinions appearing in China that Zhou Yongkang, Xu Caihou and Ling Jihua, disgraced on corruption charges, constituted a faction opposing Xi and their actions were deeply intertwined ( former Deputy editor of People’s Daily, Zhou Ruijin, China Digital Times, 21.3.2015). The opinions also find that Xi’s purge of the three could mark his political plotting against the latter, not merely as one of his anti-corruption steps (Beijing Youth Daily, as quoted by New York Times, China Digital Times, 21.3.2015). Important is the direct evidence of Xi’s thinking, being noticed; it has officially been acknowledged, for the first time, that Zhou Yongkang , along with Bo Xilai, in addition to being corrupt, indulged in “Non-organizational political activities” (2014 Annual Report of the Supreme Court, “China’s Supreme Court uses novel rhetoric in new corruption allegations”, China Daily, USA, quoting Xinhua, 19.3.2015). Experts have interpreted such activities as attempts to set up a power base in China, alternate to that of Xi jinping ( Liu Dawen, former editor of Hongkong-based political magazine Outpost, Radio Free Asia, 19.3.2015). It was also reported that Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai once held a secret meeting in Chongqing during which they advocated “adjusting” the reform and opening-up policy initiated in the late 1970s by former leader Deng Xiaoping, bringing it back in line with Maoist ideas (Phoenix Weekly, as reported in http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-15/chinese-politicians-formed-banned-clique-state-media/6019638).

The purges that have taken place under Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign, at the best, look selective; it is clear that the “tigers” being targeted are mostly the loyalists of the then party supremo Jiang Zemin. Such a path will pose risks to Xi at a time when Jiang, in spite of his old age, still enjoys much political clout. The 19th CCP Congress is scheduled in 2017. Given that all the present Politburo Standing Committee members, excepting Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang will retire at that time due to age factor, it is natural for Xi to face compulsions for beginning preparations now itself in order to ensure a smooth leadership transition at the next congress. Xi may at the same time be aware that the inevitable political fallout of his anti-graft work may negatively influence such preparations. As such, logically, he should try to keep his anti-graft drive within limits at all times. In reality, however, the situation looks different; continuing is the tendency to further widen the campaign’s targets , for e.g netting of new ‘tigers’ like Guo Boxiung and Zeng Qinghong. Future developments will therefore be worth watching.

*The writer, D.S.Rajan, is Distinguished Fellow, Chennai Centre for China Studies, Chennai, India.Email:dsrajan@gmail.com

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Spain: Rajoy Promises ‘Full Support’ To Families Of Germanwings Accident

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In a statement from Vitoria, where he was attending an official event, Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that he will do everything within his power to provide the highest level of help and assistance to the families of the victims and “give them our full support and care”.

Although Rajoy did not wish to quote any specific details about the accident because all information is “preliminary” at this time, he did stress that this is a “dramatic and dreadfully sad turn of events, with heavy casualties”.

The Prime Minister announced that he has instructed the Vice-President of the Government, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, to immediately set up a crisis cabinet and said that the Minister for Public Works, Ana Pastor, will travel to the crash site.

Rajoy added that he has already spoken by telephone with King Felipe VI, who is on an official trip to France; the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel; the President of the Regional Government of Catalonia, Artur Mas; and the leader of the opposition, Pedro Sánchez.

Rajoy, who was in Vitoria to inaugurate the Victims of Terrorism Memorial Centre and officially open the new headquarters of the Treasury of the Social Security system, cancelled his agenda to return to Madrid.

The crashed Airbus A320 was owned by Germanwings – a subsidiary of the German airline Lufthansa. It had taken off from Barcelona Airport at approximately 10 o’clock in the morning to fly to Düsseldorf. 142 passengers and 6 crew members were traveling on board.

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Enhancing Cooperation In Combating Organized Crime And Terrorism Focus Of INTERPOL Meeting

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Identifying ways to enhance cooperation in combating organized crime and terrorism is the focus of the INTERPOL Heads of National Central Bureaus (NCBs) meeting this week.

Bringing together some 265 senior police officials from 143 countries, the three-day (24 – 26 March) conference opened with INTERPOL President Mireille Ballestrazzi underlining that the world police body’s tools and NCBs are more essential than ever in combating today’s crime threats.

“INTERPOL and the NCBs have a crucial role to play in linking all players, organizations and cooperation mechanisms by promoting coordination and eliminating duplication,” said President Ballestrazzi.

President Ballestrazzi pointed to the upcoming official inauguration of the INTERPOL Global Complex for Innovation in Singapore as an example of further strengthening support to member countries, in particular through INTERPOL’s third Command and Coordination Centre operations room.

Secretary General Jürgen Stock said the Organization is seen as ‘the global platform for information sharing and exchange, tools and services for police.’

“Our work has translated into results as more countries have shared information through INTERPOL in the area of terrorism. As our partners on the ground, NCBs play an important role in this achievement,” said Secretary General Stock.

“The recognition of INTERPOL in the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2178 on foreign terrorist fighters is just one example,” he added.

Delivering the keynote address, Commissioner General of the Belgian Federal Police, Catherine De Bolle also underlined the integral role played by INTERPOL in supporting member countries’ investigations and enquiries.

In addition to organized crime and terrorism, other issues to be discussed by delegates during the conference include cybercrime and border management, as well as specific regional crime issues.

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Qatar And Sri Lanka Express Commitment For Strong Bilateral Ties

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Emir of the State of Qatar Sheikh Tamimi bin Hamad Al Thani and Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena agreed Wednesday that the there is immense potential for bilateral cooperation between the two countries. They identified the areas such as trade and commerce, investment, power and energy, gas and oil exploration, tourism and sports for future close cooperation between the two nations.

President Sirisena and the visiting Emir of Qatar held bilateral discussions at the Presidential Secretariat today. After the initial discussions between the two leaders, two delegation that included ministers of foreign affairs, finance, power and energy, tourism, civil aviation and sports held details discussions on ways and means of expanding cooperation between the two countries.

President Sirisena urged the Emir of Qatar to take welfare measures for the benefit of over 125,000 Sri Lankans employed in Doha-Qatar.

Emir of Qatar extended warm congratulations to President Sirisena on his victory at the Presidential Election and wished him all success in his plans for the progress and development of the country.

Emir of the State of Qatar Sheikh Tamimi bin Hamad Al Thani was received at the Bandaranaike International Airport by Minister kabir Hashim and the Emir was welcomed at the Presidential Secretariat by President Sirisena. On arrival at the Secretariat, the Emir was given a grand reception with a Guard of Honour and 21 gun salute.

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Saudi Arabia Moves Heavy Arms To Border With Yemen

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Saudi Arabia is deploying a significant task force to the border with neighboring Yemen, where Houthi Shiite rebels allegedly forced the president to leave the country. President Hadi has been asking the UN to approve the use of foreign forces in Yemen.

The situation in Yemen remains murky, with Houthi militants claiming capture of the southern seaport of Aden, President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s stronghold. The fighters say the city of Aden is now under their control and they’re arresting the president’s supporters there.

The rebels claim Hadi has fled the country, and announced a 20 million riyal ($100,000) reward for Hadi’s capture, Lebanese-based Al-Manar TV reported, citing the rebels’ representatives. While two of the president’s aides have said he remains in Aden and has no intention of leaving the country, later reports claim he has left Yemen. Hadi is now traveling by sea to the neighboring country of Djibouti, Yemen’s former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s secretary told RIA Novosti.

Local residents informed Reuters that Houthi fighters have overrun Al-Anad airbase and entered Aden, arresting the defense minister.

Elements of the Yemeni army who have sided with the rebel fighters have seized control of the Aden international airport, according to Al Mayadeen TV. The airport representatives told AP it was closed with flights canceled for security reasons and the worsening situation in the city.

The objective of the Saudi Arabian troops remains uncertain and even the US, Riyadh’s major ally, is not sure what the House of Saud has on its mind regarding the long-lasting political turmoil of its southern neighbor.

The opinions of US officials contacted by Reuters on the issue are divided. Two said that the concentration of artillery systems and armor on the Saudi border with Yemen have defensive purposes, while other government sources were not so sure.

A US source that described the concentration of Saudi troops as “significant” made a guess that Riyadh might be getting ready to strike the Houthis if they attempt to seize the residence of Yemen’s legitimate president. It cannot be excluded that Saudi Arabia might use its Air Force to strike rebels near Aden.

Hadi has been seeking support from the United Nations Security Council for military action against Houthi militias by “willing countries,” Reuters reports.

The president wants the UNSC to adopt a resolution authorizing “willing countries that wish to help Yemen to provide immediate support for the legitimate authority by all means and measures to protect Yemen and deter the Houthi aggression.”

Hadi has also asked the League of Arab States to immediately interfere in the situation in Yemen, Al Arabiya TV reported, citing a statement by Yemen’s foreign minister, Riad Yassin. A “joint Arab slant” is needed to coordinate and decide on an “immediate military intervention,” Yassin said.

The Arab League’s foreign ministers will meet Thursday to discuss possible military involvement, Reuters reported, referring to the League’s deputy chairman.

Meanwhile, the militants in Yemen have called for all neighboring states to “keep the peace” and “side with the people of Yemen,” an official representative of the Ansar Allah armed group said, as cited by Tass.

Some Yemeni military officers don’t like the idea of foreign intervention.

“We express our total and utter rejection of any external interference in Yemeni affairs under any pretext and in any form and from any side,” Reuters cited statement of a group of officers calling themselves Higher Committee to Preserve the Armed Forces and Security.

“All members of the armed forces and security and all the sons of the proud people of Yemen with all its components will confront with all their strength and heroism any attempt to harm the pure soil of the homeland, its independence or its sovereignty or to threaten its unity and territorial integrity,” the military group announced on a website.

In late February, Yemen’s Shiite rebel leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi accused Saudi Arabia of attempting to divide Yemen along sectarian lines.

“Our elder sister, the Saudi kingdom, doesn’t respect the Yemenis and wants to impose here in Yemen the sequence of events and divisions that happened in Libya,” al-Houthi said, as cited by the AP.

A brief war between Houthis and Riyadh resulted in deaths of about 200 Saudis four years ago.

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Assessing India’s Infrastructure Aid Diplomacy – Analysis

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With the Modi government’s focus on improving neighbourhood relations, India cannot afford delays in its aid projects in the region—especially because aid is an effective foreign policy instrument. Why are these projects getting delayed? Is the government taking remedial steps to improve India’s aid programme?

By Sharmadha Srinivasan*

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Sri Lanka this week, two of India’s aid projects were in the spotlight—the Northern Railway Rehabilitation project in the north, as well as the housing project for displaced Tamils in the Jaffna region. These projects have once again highlighted the importance of aid in India’s engagement with its neighbours.

Aid has for long been an effective but under-the-radar foreign policy tool, and Modi too projected the aid projects in Sri Lanka in the best light. The projects have indeed been a challenge that India has met under difficult post-civil war conditions.

However, India’s aid projects in neighbouring countries, such as the Terai road projects in Nepal and the hydroelectric dams in Bhutan, have faced numerous delays and problems, as a detailed study done by Gateway House shows.

As a key instrument of India’s aid diplomacy, it is imperative that infrastructure projects are executed on time and effectively.

What are the reasons and locations of the stresses and successes in India’s aid infrastructure? Gateway House looked at a total of 18 major grant-in-aid projects, three each in six neighbouring countries—Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Myanmar. We studied the Outcome Budgets from 2010-11 to 2014-15 of the Ministry of External Affairs to find some answers.

India’s aid programme in the subcontinent

In addition to grant-in-aid for infrastructure, India’s aid has two main components: training modules managed under the Indian Technical and Economic Co-operation programme, and credit lines managed by EXIM Bank. Both these tracks have been relatively successful, unlike the infrastructure projects that are frequently in the news for delays and mismanagement.

India’s aid is part of the annual budget of the Ministry of External Affairs. In 2014-15, Rs. 9,435 crores ($1.57 billion) was allocated by the ministry as aid. Of this, as much as 88% was budgeted for projects in South Asia—in Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Bhutan (See Table 1). [1]

Table 1: India’s aid in grants and loans

Aid and loans: recipient countries Budget estimates: 2014-2015 (in Rs. crores)
Bhutan 6074
Afghanistan 676
Nepal 450
Sri Lanka 500
Myanmar 330
Bangladesh 350
African countries 350
Mongolia 3
Eurasian countries 40
Maldives 183
Latin American countries 30
Others 449
Total Rs. 9435 crores (approximately $1.57 billion)

Source: Ministry of External Affairs, Outcome Budget 2014-2015

The three largest aid projects in India’s neighbouring countries are all infrastructure-related.  An assessment (Table 2) shows that most of them are delayed by at least a year.

Table 2: Assessment of India’s aid projects in the neighbourhood

Project Start date Finish date Revised date Implementing agency Consultant Allocation 2014-2015
Bhutan            
Punatsangchchu-I Hydroelectric Project 2008 2015 2017 L&T, Gammon India Ltd., HCC, BHEL WAPCOS Ltd Rs. 2497 crores
Mangdechhu  Hydroelectric Project 2010 2017 2017 Jaiprakash Associates, Gammon India Ltd, BHEL, PES Engineers Pvt Ltd, Kalpataru Power Commission, Rs. 1031 crores
Punatsangchchu-II Hydroelectric Project 2010 2016 2017 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd, Gammon (India), BHEL, Hyosung Corporation WAPCOS Ltd Rs. 1174 crores
Afghanistan
Construction of Salma dam 2004 2010 2015 WAPCOS Ltd Rs.198 crores
Afghanistan Parliament building 2005 2011 2014 Central Public Works Department Rs. 134 crores
Construction of two additional sub-stations at Doshi and Charikar 2009 2013 2014  BHEL Rs. 126 crores
Nepal
Terai Road Project 2010 2014 No new date known  Vishwa- BSVR Joint Venture, GVR Infra Projects Chennai RITES Rs. 173 crores
Rail link at  Jogbani-Biratnagar and Jayanagar-Bijalpura Bardibas 2010 No exact date projected No exact date projected  IRCON RITES Rs. 94 crores
Integrated Check Posts (ICP Birgunj) 2011 2013 No exact date projected RITES Rs. 33 crores
Bangladesh
Grant assistance to Bangladesh (1st tranche of $50 million) 2012 2012 2013 Rs. 162 crores
Agartala Akhura Rail link 2013 2016 2018 IRCON Rs. 49 crores
Inland river port at Ashuganj 2014 Not yet decided Not yet decided WAPCOS Rs. 29 crores
Sri Lanka
Housing project 2010 2015 -16 2015-16 UN-HABITAT, International Federation of Red Cross & Red Crescent Societies in partnership with Sri Lanka Red Cross, National Housing Development Agency Rs. 439 crores
Setting up of a hospital at Dickoya 2011 2012 2014  M/s Green Valley’s Shelters Pvt. Ltd. Hospital Services Consultation Corporation Ltd. Rs. 12 crores
Jaffna  Cultural Centre 2012 2015 2017 Rs. 17 crores
Myanmar
Kaladan Project (inland waterways component) 2008 2013 2015  Essar Projects India Ltd. Inland Waterways Authority of India Rs. 150 crores
Trilateral Highway Project 2005 2016 Not known Egis India Consulting Engineers Rs. 103 crores
Upgrade of the Yangon Children Hospital and Sittwe General Hospital 2011 2013 2014 Hospital Services Consultation Corporation Ltd. Rs. 13 crores

Source: Gateway House anaylsis of  Ministry of External Affairs Outcome Budgets

Of course, these projects are complex, long-term, and expensive. They are undertaken by a mix of Indian private and public sector companies, as well as by foreign companies and multilateral agencies. Some projects such as dams for hydropower benefit India in the long run since we will purchase the surplus power once the project is completed. 

The projects are typically funded as grants from the Ministry of External Affairs, except for the three hydroelectric dams in Bhutan which are funded as a combination of a loan as well as a grant.

To better understand the cause of the delays, a handy classification is used in Table 3. It shows that most hold-ups are either due to approvals pending with the recipient country or because of challenging working condition, or sometimes both. In many cases, the delay seems to be beyond the control of the Indian government or even the Indian business entity that is in charge.

Table 3: Classification of delays

Reasons for the delay Infrastructure project
Statutory approvals pending with  recipient Terai Road Project (Nepal); Trilateral Highway Project (Myanmar); Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Project (Myanmar);  Hospital at Dickoya (Sri Lanka); Rail link at Jogbani- Biratnagar and Jayanagar-Bijalpura Bardibas (Nepal); Jaffna Cultural Centre (Sri Lanka)
Challenging work conditions faced by project managers Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Project (Myanmar); ICP Birgunj (Nepal); Trilateral Highway Project (Myanamar); Salma dam (Afghanistan); Afghanistan Parliament building (Afghanistan); sub-stations at Doshi and Charikar (Afghanistan)
Delay in handing over of project site Parliament building (Afghanistan); sub-stations at Doshi and Charikar (Afghanistan); hospital at Dickoya (Sri Lanka); Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Project (Myanmar)
Land acquisition issues faced by recipient Rail link at Jogbani- Biratnagar and Jayanagar-Bijalpura Bardibas ( Nepal); Terai Road Project (Nepal)
Financial approvals pending with India Grant assistance to Bangladesh
Technical issues faced by project managers Punatsangchchu-I Hydroelectric Project (Bhutan)

Source: Ministry of External Affairs Outcome Budgets, Gateway House analysis

The Terai Road Project in Nepal is an example of a statutory approval such as the clearance from the Department of Forests in Nepal for sourcing of construction material, being the main cause of delay. The Salma Dam in Afghanistan is an example of a setback caused by the uncertain security situation. More details are given in Table 4.

Table 4: Detailed reasons for the delays

Reason for the delay Example of infrastructure project Details of  the delay
Statutory approvals/ land acquisition Terai Road Project, Nepal The government of Nepal needs to accelerate clearance from the Department of Forests, as well as the sourcing of construction material for the roads. The project has also run into issues between the contractor and the consultant, which is being reviewed by the Dispute Review Expert. [2]
Challenging work conditions Salma dam, Afghanistan The Salma dam faced security issues from the start, which has delayed the project and led to a revision of costs. It is difficult to travel by road to the work site due to security concerns, and since January 2011, contractors have used helicopters. This has created logistical issues, such as difficulties in transporting raw material. [3]
Challenging work conditions Integrated check-posts (ICP) in Nepal A large number of strikes/bandhs in Nepal have impeded the progress of ICP Birgunj. This has also impacted the timely movement of equipment and material for the construction of the project. [4]
Delay in handing over of site/challenging work conditions Afghanistan Parliament building There was a delay in handing over the site and a change in the alignment of the building. Approvals for the interior design work were also delayed.  Another issue the project faced was that there were too few bidders for various packages of work. [5]

 

The government of India is taking multiple steps to streamline India’s aid management.

i) The creation of the Development Partnership Administration at the Ministry of External Affairs in January of 2012, with a mandate to effectively implement all aid projects from technical training to extension of credit lines to grant-in-aid projects, in close co-operation with the partner countries. This is a progressive step, as no single agency had been assigned to oversee all three forms of aid—from ITEC to EXIM Bank credit lines to grant in aid projects by the MEA. Now DPA is in charge of all three. The DPA asserts that it has “started to create in-house, specialized technical, legal and financial skills in order to fast track all stages of project implementation.” [6]

ii)  Under the concept of  ‘Small Development Project’ programmes, India is now engaging with aid partner countries on smaller grassroots projects which introduce local stakeholders into the process so that the implementation is swift.  For example, 466 such small projects have been completed in Nepal by India as part of our development cooperation with that country in just 10 years, at a relatively low cost of Rs 3.5 crores per project. [7]

Unfortunately, the Development Partnership Administration has primarily been set up as an implementation agency. It falls short of the “aid agency” that it was initially proposed to be, which could effectively formulate as well as implement India’s aid policy. [8]

India’s problems of delay in execution are unique because of the kind of aid it gives, which is largely in the capacity-building area, and in strengthening institutions of representative government. This is quite different from China, which has the ability to swiftly complete projects on an ambitious scale.

However China faces problems unlike ours—it is routinely accused by its aid recipients of undertaking projects that are resource-exploitative, and of bypassing local norms and regulations. Aid by western agencies comes tied with conditions, which is often seen as undue political interference. The perception of Indian aid by its recipients is far more favourable—a fact which we must take advantage of, by expanding our programmes.

For now, Prime Minister Modi has made India’s neighbours a foreign policy priority for his government. Unless the major aid projects related to infrastructure are streamlined for execution in a timely manner, the delays will continue to mar India’s infrastructure diplomacy.

About the author:
*Sharmadha Srinivasan
is a Junior researcher at Gateway House. She has earlier interned at Espirito Santo Securities in the capacity of an economist, and at the Institute of Economic Affairs in London as a researcher.

Source:
This feature was published by Gateway House.

References
[1] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, Outcome Budget 2014-2015, 27 August 2014, <http://mea.gov.in/Uploads/PublicationDocs/23954_MEA_Outcome_Budget_ENG_2014-15.pdf> p.12

[2] Embassy of India in Kathmandu, India-Nepal Relations, < http://www.indianembassy.org.np/index1.php?option=e6r5wlVM8od_u8Y0CdwsDiTfg0cohLLpEcNS8hphu-0&id=uG6ODD6pDmyQZ2GVuAigr3dw3JsYiyXhalcKLgM4KoQ>

[3] Gateway House compilation from interviews

[4] Embassy of India in Kathmandu, India-Nepal Relations, < http://www.indianembassy.org.np/index1.php?option=e6r5wlVM8od_u8Y0CdwsDiTfg0cohLLpEcNS8hphu-0&id=uG6ODD6pDmyQZ2GVuAigr3dw3JsYiyXhalcKLgM4KoQ>

[5] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, Outcome Budget 2013-2014, 27 August 2014, <http://mea.gov.in/Uploads/PublicationDocs/21546_MEA_Outcome_Budget_2013-14_English.pdf > p.135

[6] Development Partnership Administration, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, < http://www.mea.gov.in/development-partnership-administration.htm>

[7] Embassy of India in Kathmandu, India-Nepal Relations,< http://www.indianembassy.org.np/index1.php?option=e6r5wlVM8od_u8Y0CdwsDiTfg0cohLLpEcNS8hphu-0&id=uG6ODD6pDmyQZ2GVuAigr3dw3JsYiyXhalcKLgM4KoQ>

[8] Saran, S., India’s Foreign Aid: Prospects and Challenges, Research and Information System for Developing Countries, 16 February 2014, <http://ris.org.in/images/RIS_images/pdf/India’s Foreign Aid.pdf> Pg. 6

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Lee Kuan Yew And Singapore’s Foreign Policy: A Productive Iconoclasm – Analysis

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Lee Kuan Yew’s mark on Singapore’s foreign policy is that of applying counterintuitive strategies to improve the island state’s international standing. In retrospect, this has ensured Singapore’s long term viability as a sovereign nation-state.

By Alan Chong

As Singapore’s first Prime Minister and the point man in negotiating decolonisation from Britain in the late 1950s and early 1960s, Lee Kuan Yew carries an aura of being one of the pioneers of the island state’s foreign policy. His political personality appears to have been directly mapped onto his steerage of foreign policy: cold unflinching appraisal of one’s circumstances, and self-reliance in designing one’s survival strategies, but only up to the point that external parties can be persuaded that it is in their conjoined interests to partner Singapore in pursuing win-win collaborations.

Lee’s autobiography reveals the profile of an energetic, enterprising young man who was confronted with a series of personal challenges in adapting to material scarcity and political brutality, especially during the Japanese Occupation. This was a key formative influence for foreign policy born of dire geopolitical and geoeconomic circumstances.

Not a normal country

Independent Singapore, bereft of a reliable hinterland constructed by the British empire, was literally perceived by its leaders as an island unto itself, surrounded by similarly decolonised but territorially larger nation-states. The initial decade of transiting from colony to independence from 1959 to 1965 was traumatic on a national level. By his own admission, Lee’s initial view that ‘island states were political jokes’ had to be reversed to achieve the impossible. His strategy for a sound foreign policy was to think unconventionally, and in word, to act as an iconoclast – a leader who sets the pace for his followers with a knack for the counterintuitive.

In his own reflections in 2011, following three decades as Prime Minister, then Senior Minister and Minister Mentor, he emphasised the need for Singaporeans to grasp foreign affairs: ‘I’m concerned that Singaporeans assume that Singapore is a normal country, that we can be compared to Denmark or New Zealand or even Liechtenstein or Luxembourg. We are in a turbulent region. If we do not have a government and a people that differentiate themselves from the rest of the neighbourhood in a positive way and can defend ourselves, Singapore will cease to exist. It’s not the view of just my generation but also those who have come into Defence, Foreign Affairs Ministries and those who have studied the position’.

Already in 1966, he was urging students at the then University of Singapore to aspire to bigger dreams in their careers. This would add value to Singapore by enticing the world to take interest in its industry, development, standards of living and sometimes, sheer intellectual insights. He went on to argue that once the great powers and Asian states planted intellectual, scientific and commercial stakes in the island state, Singapore’s fundamental security would be assured indefinitely.

In this sense, Lee shared with his friend and PAP comrade, S. Rajaratnam, an affinity for global imagination – Singapore could literally treat the world as its hinterland if its people and their technical skills were capable of servicing the world’s niche requirements in banking, telecommunications, R&D and indeed diplomacy.

Lee the Philosopher of Foreign Policy

As Lee would have it, international affairs were all about leadership and the making of either good or bad decisions. In a less publicised speech at the Australian Institute of International Affairs, he set out the view that ‘“International Affairs” is as old as the subject of man…[T]he essential quality of man has never altered. You can read the Peloponnesian Wars, you can read the Three Kingdoms of the Chinese classics, and there’s nothing new which a human situation can devise. The motivations of human behaviour have always been there. The manifestations of the motivations whether they are greed, envy, ambition, greatness, generosity, charity, inevitably end in a conflict of power positions. And how that conflict is resolved depends upon the accident of the individuals in charge of a particular tribe or nation at a given time.’

On hindsight, this was more than a fitting epitaph for the first prime minister of the Republic of Singapore. It was a statement of a belief in the possibilities of forging one’s own destiny. We call it today the Singapore Dream of peace and stability, folded into the SG50 milestone of progress and prosperity. Singapore’s foreign policy under Lee’s astute sense was certainly man-made.

Lee’s approach to foreign policy has always been guided by a quixotic mixture of principles of anxiety, nationalistic zeal, and an earnest attempt to dovetail the national interest with some universalist principles circulating in the international order. These compass points have not been clearly prioritised for ostensible reasons of bureaucratic and diplomatic flexibility, and therein lies Lee’s talent for discerning the best path forward for Singaporean foreign policy.

Correct outcomes, not political correctness

Although Lee has never publicly referred to his role in forcing a decision on any particular foreign policy issue, he has never shied away from suggesting that his personal diplomatic heft has enabled him to convey national messages directly to his opposite numbers in foreign governments. The tone of his remarks on relations with China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the United States and Vietnam in his memoirs suggests that his presence as the authoritative decision maker mattered to foreign perceptions of who could effectively steer policies for Singapore.

As Singaporeans and the world mourn the passing of a giant of twentieth century Asian politics, we will do well not to forget that Lee Kuan Yew was never one to entertain political correctness. He was more concerned with producing correct outcomes even amidst the vagaries in international politics. Perhaps the final reflection should be reserved for Lee’s views on something as controversial as the US intervention in Iraq early in the 21st century.

Despite American dismay over their post-invasion quagmire in rebuilding Iraq in 2003-2012, Lee encouraged the US to complete their mission, notwithstanding his government’s initial disapproval of George W. Bush’s invasion plans, since fundamentalist Islamic terrorists in Southeast Asia and elsewhere would take heart from an outright American withdrawal.

The erstwhile US Ambassador to Singapore conceded a grudging respect for Lee’s sagacity in a confidential cable in 2006 under the subheading ‘Welcoming the United States, but not our politics’. This is Lee Kuan Yew the successful iconoclast.

*Alan Chong is Associate Professor of International Relations at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University. He has just published a study in an academic journal comparing Lee Kuan Yew and Mahathir Mohamad as exemplars of authoritative decision makers in foreign policy. This is the third in the series on the Legacy of Lee Kuan Yew.

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Myanmar’s Conflicts And Its Regional Dimensions – Analysyis

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By K. Yhome*

The delicate relationship between Myanmar and China has once again been exposed following Myanmar’s air bombing on March 13, targeting ethnic rebels. Instead, the bombing killed five Chinese farmers in the southwestern Chinese province of Yunnan, bordering northern Myanmar. Following the incident, Beijing issued stern warnings against Myanmar.

The Chinese government has accused the Myanmar military for the bombing. But the Myanmar government has denied any role and instead alleged that it could be the work of ethnic rebels. Beijing and Nay Pyi Taw have launched a joint investigation to look into the incident.

The incident also revealed the limitations of the ongoing Myanmar’s peace process and the complexities in the border lands that underscore the regional dimension of the conflicts in Myanmar. The geopolitical significance of the incident also cannot be overlooked. Especially at time when there is intense power-play among major powers in Myanmar.

The Kokang factor has long been a source of tension in China-Myanmar relations. The Kokang, an ethnic Chinese community, is based in northern Shan State and maintains a rebel army known as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) under the leadership of Peng Jiasheng. The MNDAA was part of the China-backed force called the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) that fought against the Myanmar government. Jiasheng has long been involved in drug trade and both he and his son are in the US sanction list.

After the disintegration of the CPB in 1989, the Kokang entered into a ceasefire agreement with the Myanmar government. This lasted till 2009 when fighting erupted following the MNDAA ‘s refusal to integrate into a paramilitary force under the Burmese army. During this conflict, thousands of Kokang people fled to China as refugees. Beijing responded with strong statements against Myanmar, warning it of spillover effects. It urged the Myanmar government to handle its ethnic issue better.

Since February 9 this year, fighting between the MNDAA rebels and the Burmese army has again resumed and hundreds of thousands refugees were again pushed to the Yunnan province in China.

China’s immediate concerns are primarily the danger of cross-border effects of conflicts in Myanmar. But China also has long-term interests to safeguard its economic and strategic interests in Myanmar. China has built pipelines and other major infrastructures in Myanmar that it wants to protect for both commercial interests and as strategic access to the Indian Ocean. So, as Beijing responds to the border instability, it is also trying hard to balance these interests.

It needs to be pointed out that the current conflicts in Myanmar manifest the weaknesses of the government-led peace process. While the Myanmar government hopes to end the ethnic conflicts, the Myanmar army continues to fight ethnic rebels in several areas in the country. Moreover, small ethnic groups are not allowed to be part of the negotiation process. The Kokang group is one such ethnic group among other several other smaller ethnic groups who are not invited to peace talks.

Since political transition in Myanmar began in 2011 under the Thein Sein government, the country has been trying to minimise its reliance on China by diversifying its engagements and bringing the Western countries, particularly the US, to counterweigh its northern neighbour.

Over the past four years or so, the relationship between China and Myanmar has seen dramatic developments, including the suspension of Chinese funded mega-projects such as the Myitsone Dam and the copper mine project. Myanmar’s democratic reforms and multiplying external partners have directly impacted China’s interests in Myanmar.

As China’s stronghold on Myanmar eases, the US has been trying to strengthen its foothold in this country, strategically located between India, China, and ASEAN. Seen as Asia’s ‘last frontier’, Myanmar has been attracting huge investments from Japan, Korea, US, India, EU and Southeast Asian countries. As these countries step up their economic engagements with Myanmar, China’s dominant position has been increasingly challenged.

The bombing has brought up another dimension also. It is the role of regional players – a subject that has never been seriously discussed or being taken up in the current discourse on Myanmar’s ethnic peace process. Since 2011, when the Thein Sein government initiated the peace process, the role of external players has largely focused on countries outside the region — including the EU, the UK, Norway and the US. Surely, the role of these countries is important and their support needs to be continued as Myanmar struggles to take the peace process forward.

The recent incident has demonstrated that the role of the regional players needs to be brought to the fore, within the larger framework of international support in the Myanmar’s peace process. In fact, some observers have suggested regional coordination among India, China and Thailand to help Myanmar in its search for peace with its ethnic rebels. The three neighbours share long land boundaries where many ethnic groups are found on both sides of the border.

From a practical point of view, however, a regional mechanism may not come by in the near future, owing to the strategic suspicions among the regional countries and, more importantly, Myanmar itself which may not want to give a larger role to the immediate neighbours with whom it has its reservations.

At best, the role of regional players can be pursued in their individual capacities in the current scenario. China has been engaged in Myanmar’s peace process by facilitating negotiations between the Myanmar government and some of the ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar such as the Wa and the Kokang.

Thailand has been allowing representatives of Myanmar’s ethnic groups to meet in its country to chalk out their negotiations with the Nay Pyi Taw. In recent months, India has been involved in Myanmar’s peace process by agreeing to facilitate Myanmar’s rebel leaders to travel to India to understand peace agreement that India had achieved with some of its ethnic rebels.

It is important that all the immediate neighbours play a positive role to ensure that Myanmar’s peace process reach its logical conclusion. India, China and Thailand are aware of peace dividends that could result out of the Myanmar’s peace process. In the past, ethnic rebels have been used as ‘buffer zone’, in dealing with the Myanmar government. However, such strategies for short-term gains would prove disastrous.

The question is not if there is a regional mechanism where the regional players can work together. If the regional countries are serious about stabilising the region for the interests of the entire region, each country needs to take the responsibility and deliver what it ought to do individually. An earnest pursue at the individual level may open up avenues to work collectively in future.

*The writer is a Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

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Lee Kuan Yew: The ‘Engine’ That Was ‘Too Big For The Boat’– Analysis

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Former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew’s renowned intellectual, moral and political strengths played a major role in Singapore’s rise from Third World to First in one generation. Fair-minded Singaporeans are unlikely to forget his achievements.

By Kumar Ramakrishna

Not long after the fall of Soviet Communism more than two decades ago now, the American Soviet specialist Jerry Hough created a stir when he declared that “Singapore had actually won the Cold War”. In a sense Hough was paying a compliment to the vision of Mr Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s first Prime Minister.

Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew. Photo Credit: USGov-Military, Wikipedia Commons.

Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew. Photo Credit: USGov-Military, Wikipedia Commons.

The emerging orthodoxy by the early 1990s was that the US-led Western bloc, organised according to the principles of liberal democracy and market capitalism, had trumped Soviet-style centralised political and economic planning. This was what had won the Cold War, as popularised by Francis Fukuyama’s famous “End of History” thesis. Hough’s claim about Singapore was thus startling because while Singapore had adopted market principles in economic organisation, its political system was not liberal democratic in a textbook sense, but rather a hybrid one. Then and now Singapore’s system of governance prioritised order as the basis for the rule of law. Hough was thus implying that there was also a Singapore model of governance that deserved wide appreciation.

Lee’s view of order and rule of law

Over the years Lee had had many detractors who chided his failure to adopt textbook liberal democratic methods in governing Singapore. They suggested that by so doing he was undermining the rule of law in Singapore. The critics totally misunderstood Lee’s perspective however. Lee saw the rule of law as utterly integral to the successful political and economic development of Singapore. However Lee’s view of the rule of law was one that was subordinate to Singapore’s needs and not vice versa. He rejected an un-contextualized, abstract conception of the law. In particular, the experiences of fighting the Communists in the 1950s and 1960s engendered in Lee the conviction that order must always precede and establish the basis for legal frameworks.

In a speech to the University of Singapore Law Society on 18 January 1962, Lee argued that while in “a settled and established society, law appears to be a precursor of order” in emerging ones wracked by violence and subversion the reverse was often the case: “without order, the operation of law is impossible’’. At the time of this speech the Cold War was at its height and Singapore and Malaya were very much a frontline in the ideological and geopolitical conflict between the Eastern and Western blocs.

It was with this wider backdrop in mind that Lee added that the “realities of the sociological and political milieu in Malaya and of the world of 1962 are that if you allow these shibboleths of ‘law and order’ to be uttered out of context” and without reference to “the actual social and political conditions we are in”, disaster may strike, simply because in “the last analysis if the state disintegrates then the rules of all laws must vanish”.

Lee’s life mission: Fighting society’s entropy

Years later, an insightful journalist suggested that to understand Lee Kuan Yew’s approach to governance, one must first appreciate how he had devoted his entire political career to fighting the “entropy” – the decay – of a society and its politics. This was something he had had first-hand experience with during his twilight struggles with the powerful, often violent Communist United Front in the Singapore of the 1950s and early 1960s.

For Lee, the lesson from that struggle – quite clearly the defining experience that shaped his entire outlook on politics and governance – was clear: Singapore needed order as the wellspring of everything else – including especially the economic security that a polyglot, immigrant, multiracial society needed as an initial basis for glueing its disparate elements together.

Lee’s ability to instinctively grasp – through the “fog” of both the internal political upheaval of the struggle with the Communists as well as the external instability of Konfrontasi of the 1960s – that political order and economic growth were the sine qua non of Singapore’s survival, was important. It was arguably one aspect of what the renowned 19th century Prussian military philosopher Carl von Clausewitz called coup d’oeil – “the rapid discovery of a truth which to the ordinary mind is either not visible at all or only becomes so after long examination and reflection”. Lee’s uncanny ability to dissect a complex situation under stress and chart a path forward was a measure of his coup d’oeil.

But there is another aspect to coup d’oeil that is equally important and which Lee possessed in abundance: the “resolution” to overcome “the torments of doubt” and follow through despite the uncertainties expressed by all and sundry. In this respect, many commentators have noted Lee’s forcefulness in pursuing courses of action that were often seen as controversial and unpopular. Clear examples are the restrictions on foreign newspapers deemed to have interfered in Singapore’s domestic politics; unfettered religious proselytisation; family planning policies that some deemed promoted elitism; and of course defamation suits against those opponents whom Lee felt had impugned the political credibility he needed to govern optimally.

Singapore’s political viability paramount

What arguably tied all these various elements together, regardless of one’s sentiments about them, was one overriding consideration: Singapore’s continued political viability and prosperity. Lee consistently counseled resolute, eternal vigilance. This was the only stance he believed made sense in light of how the globalised nature of Singapore’s economy and polity rendered the country inescapably exposed to global and regional perturbations.

A third element of the coup d’oeil that Lee appeared to possess was “presence of mind” – or the innate capacity to surmount the “unexpected” and pursue one’s aim to a successful conclusion. Make no mistake: Lee could certainly be pretty Machiavellian in his machinations with his political opponents in pursuit of his agendas. In July 1965, a mere month before Separation from Malaysia, Life magazine – quoting an unnamed “British high official in Singapore” – somewhat inelegantly described Lee as “the most brilliant man around, albeit just a bit of a thug”.

But one must keep things in perspective: in an era when global Communism was elsewhere on the march, the Communists in Singapore – no strangers to cheerfully employing ruses and stratagems themselves to get their way – complained that they had found Lee’s PAP a match in “methods of political chicanery”. Lee Kuan Yew was no saint and never pretended to be one – but he possessed the “presence of mind” to defeat the Communists and set Singapore on a different trajectory.

As it was said of Abraham Lincoln the day he passed away, Lee Kuan Yew himself now “belongs to the ages”. In the 1970s, a leading American politician once declared of Lee and Singapore: “The engine is too big for the boat”. Perhaps that may have been the case, but the gratitude of fair-minded Singaporeans is not likely to ever abate.

*Kumar Ramakrishna is Associate Professor and Head, Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. From 1 April 2015, he will assume the new appointment of Head of Policy Studies in the Office of the Executive Deputy Chairman, RSIS. This is the second in the series on the Legacy of Lee Kuan Yew.

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MIKTA: A Global Vision Of Middle Powers – Analysis

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By Selcuk Colakoglu

Rising powers have become more influential in global politics since the 1990s. Before then, the global economy could be conceived of as consisting of two parts: the rich north and the poor south. Yet as a result of the successful development of the so-called “Asian Tigers”(South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong) and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the 1980s and 1990s, as well as China’s move towards the center of the world economy, the structure of the global economy has undergone a profound transformation. In this respect, the G7, which is widely known as a club of the world’s richest countries, does not represent the true center of the global economy.

The establishment of the G20 in1999 can be seen as a concrete display of this change in the global economy’s center. Here, the G7, which represented only the world’s greatest economies, gradually lost its influence, thus making way for the emergence of the G20.

Additionally, as the BRIC constellation (consisting of Brazil, Russia, India and China) became more and more prominent on the world stage, it even began to surpass the economic performances of some G7 countries. These different groupings within the G20, including BRICS as well as IBSA (India, Brazil, and South Africa) later came to the stage. What’s more, another formation dubbed “the G12”(consisting of the G7 and BRICS also came to the fore within the G20.From a global perspective, this G12 grouping aimed to form a more concrete platform of the 12 countries that had become great economic powers by today’s standards in order to handle global problems, and to guide the world economy.

Nonetheless, countries that could be considered middle powers such as Turkey, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Mexico, Argentina and Saudi Arabia, which are included in G20,have been excluded from the G12. Such a reality has led to a concern that these countries, which can be perceived of as strategically important powers in their respective regions and as rising economies overall, may be excluded from the newly emerging global economic and security structures. Such circumstances have forced these middle powers to act in unison with G20, the UN and other international organizations and formations.

The Mission of MIKTA

Within this context, in September 2013 at the 68th meeting of the UN General Assembly five of the G20’smiddle powers declared their participation in a new formation termed MIKTA,which is the English acronym for its constitutive members, namely Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey and Australia. Largely considered to be an informal and low-profile forum, MIKTA primarily aims to serve and protect the interests of its five members in the global arena. Although all countries of MIKTA are members of the G20 major economies, none are part of theG10 and it seems that this will remain so for the foreseeable future, despite their rapid economic growth rates.

Geographic and Cultural Diversity

The MIKTA formation represents the world from a geographical perspective. Australia represents the Pacific, Indonesia represents Southeast Asia, and South Korea represents North East Asia. These three countries are members of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and participants of the East Asian Summit organized by ASEAN. Turkey is both a European and Asian country, while Mexico is a Latin American county and at the same time a member of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Moreover, Indonesia and Turkey are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and are widely regarded as leading Muslim countries. Again, Australia can be considered as possessing a largelyprotestant social structure, while Mexico is predominantly Catholic. In South Korea, Buddhism and Christianity (both Protestant and Catholic) are believed to be ubiquitous. In this respect, MIKTA can be seen as a microcosm of the globe, representinga wide geography and exemplifying a multi-cultural character. Despite all their differences, the countries of MIKTA share a common commitment to democracy, the free market economy and fair global governance.

Demand of Global Governance

Another common feature of these five countries is that they have difficulties in making the West recognize their priorities, although they all share close strategic ties with the US and/or EU countries. Considering this, MIKTA stands as an independent way in which these countries can safeguard their global interests and priorities while also remaining a part of the global order that is determined by the West. MIKTA countries believe that they will be able to act as a unified mediator in global and regional disputes if they build the capability to act independently, especially from the US. In this regard, MIKTA countries take special care to develop their relations with non-Western countries, especially Russia and China.

One of the most ambitious countries of MIKTA is Australia. Even more, its former prime minister and foreign minister, Kevin Rudd, can be considered as one of the founders of MIKTA. According to Australia, the entire world is paying for the mistakes made by the great powers in their attempts to solve global economic and political problems. From this perspective, Australia contends that a system of global governance that protects the interests of middle and small states needs to be developed. Although Rudd’s Labor Party government has now been replaced by that of acenter-right coalition under Prime Minister Tony Abbott which happens to prioritize Japan and India over China, there is a general consensus among the Australian ruling elite that MIKTA is a beneficial instrument for Australian foreign policy.

Another enthusiastic defender of MIKTA is South Korea. For Seoul, which is caught between China, the US and Japan, and Russia when it comes to theNorth Koreadilemma and other regional problems, it is believed that MIKTA can provide it with new opportunities in foreign policy.

Mexico is troubled with extreme economic dependence on the US on the one hand, and Brazilian leadership in Latin America on the other. Yet, one of the biggest challenges that Mexico is facing is that it cannot properly defend its interests within NAFTA or the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). From this perspective, MIKTA, which has the potential to exert influence from diverse corners of the world, can provide an opening for Mexican foreign policy.

Turkey, which is largely regarded as a cultural, geographic and historical bridge between Asia and Europe, has eagerly promoted the workings of MIKTA. With MIKTA as a foreign policy instrument, Ankara will be able to gain a greater maneuverability in its relations with the EU, Russia and the Middle East. Most importantly for Turkey, the formation would help the country on its mission to define itself as a middle power by aiding it in the formulation of more realistic and reasonable goals.

Finally, Indonesia has been the most reluctant party to MIKTA. Here, Indonesia is experiencing greater difficulty than Turkey in defining itself as a great or middle power. Although Indonesia is one of the world’s most important countries in terms of its geographical location and large population, its political influence and economic capability remain questionable. Yet, MIKTA’s common approach to the governance of global and regional issues is one of the main pull factors that draws Indonesia to the newly emerging constellation.

To what degree the MIKTA countries will be successful in establishing a shared vision and strategic position based on their common interests will determine the future of this formation. If these countries can cooperate and act in solidarity, MIKTA’s prestige in the international arena will rise, and subsequently, if new members are added to the formation, MIKTA could come to represent a solid platform from which middle powers may protect their interests.

*Turkish version of this article was first published at Analist monthly journal’s March 2015 issue.

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Turkey’s Domestic Security Bill: A Paradox Of Conflict, Perception And Compromise – Analysis

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By Ihsan Bal*

Domestic security bills stipulating radical changes can be regarded as ‘mini constitutions’, the likes of which need to be established on the basis of social and political consensus. Newly issued security laws can build confidence and maintain security within a society only if they rest on the solid grounds of consensus.

Turkey entered the year 2015 with discussions primarily focusing on domestic security issues rather than subjects related with its international security. The government’s submission of the Domestic Security Draft Law to the parliament further fueled the already heated debate. As much as the fact that various political parties which otherwise oppose one another objected to the draft law with equal intensity indicates a surprising trend, it also demonstrates certain realities that underlie the government’s conception of ‘New Turkey’. Surely the new realities ushered in with this new era that Turkey has entered, which is dubbed ‘New Turkey’ by government circles, deserve further scrutiny as far as domestic security is concerned.

It is without a doubt that the Domestic Security Draft Law embodies an extensive reform program. Özgecan Aslan, a young woman who was brutally murdered after she was left alone in a minibus with its driver; Nuh Köklü, a journalist who was murdered while having a snowball fight in the street; and Murat Çakıroğlu, a student from Ege University who was murdered just because of his political remarks, all emerged recently as important figures that symbolize the society’s accumulated reaction against such a traumatic and rapid escalation in public violence. The government wants to be able to prevent such murders which cause public indignation.

It is claimed that the law in question will not only help prevent similar murders in the future but also remedy crimes against public peace as well as organized crime, including mafia showdowns, terrorist activities, acts of usurpation, and theft, all which have been becoming more frequent, especially as of late. In this context, the current government advocated the relevant regulations by way of drawing the increasing crime rates to the attention of the public and the parliament. However, it is possible to suggest that an extremely broad social and political coalition will continue to oppose the implementation of the security law considering all the objections raised by an important segment of the public, numerous politicians, and even pro-government circles.

Many important statesmen, with Turkey’s 11th president, Abdullah Gül, first and foremost, not only criticized the draft law because it vests law enforcement officers with more extensive authority, but they also suggested a total revision of the draft law, which is particularly noteworthy. People who have been involved in politics for many years under the umbrella of the AK Party, as well as various other popular figures associated with the ruling party in some way or another have objected to several aspects of the draft law. This shows that the opposition in Turkey is not only limited to anti-government politicians in the parliament.

Objections raised by the political opposition

The HDP, the political party which represents the pro-Kurdish political movement, strongly opposes the draft law, declaiming that its reaction to the passage of the bill could be as harsh as its full withdrawal from the so-called ‘solution process’. The basic argument voiced by the HDP rests on its interpretation that the draft law envisages an undeclared state of emergency, thereby setting the scene for governors and the central administration to take sweeping high-handed measures with the aim of suppressing the Kurdish opposition.

In fact, the HDP has declared its full support for the articles of the draft law that envisage an increase in the penalty for throwing molotov cocktails during riots and also those on the use and trafficking of narcotics. It promises to back the government in support of these provisions if these articles, which the ruling party often cites when advocating the draft law, were voted upon separately from the rest of the comprehensive security package. According to the HDP, which accuses the current administration of harboring ill-will, the ruling party has ulterior motives behind its attempt to pass such a diverse package.

Interestingly, another political party opposing the draft law as fiercely as the HDP is the MHP, which is known for its nationalist flare. The MHP’s basic criticism of the draft law rests upon the argument that its enaction will weaken law enforcement officers and undermine their effectiveness by redesigning the gendarmerie. According to the MHP, the spirit of Turkey’s legal system will be totally altered with this law, and the domestic security apparatus will reorient itself towards protecting the political authority, leaving aside its essential duty of targeting crime and criminals. Indeed, just like the HDP, the MHP objects to the draft law because of its suspicion of the government’s motives. In the eyes of the MHP leadership, the government’s argument that the people’s demand for public order cannot be afforded by the existing legal acquis – especially as it applies to counter-terrorism – is only a pretext for the ruling party to implement its hidden agenda.

Turkey’s main opposition party, the CHP, is yet another player that has voiced harsh criticism of the draft law. Here, the CHP has expressed its objections to four points of the draft law, as outlined by Binnaz Toprak, a non-senior MP: (i) the authorization of governors and heads of districts to search people and their belongings at will, (ii) the authorization of the police to detain people for 24 hours – 48 hours in some cases – without legal approval, (iii) the extension of the authority of law enforcement officers to use firearms, and (iv) the extension of the authority to confiscate people’s possessions and property.

Public opposition

The Domestic Security Draft Law has incited serious concerns, which can be easily noticed by looking at the relevant discussions on social media platforms and the calls of recent public demonstrations. The reasons behind similar objections raised by people from all walks of life should be analyzed separately.

The basic problem at this point is the social and political opposition’s perception that the gap between the discourse and actual practice of the ruling party has been widening since the Gezi Park Protests, thus indicating a serious disconnect between the two. A discrepancy between discourse and practice leads the people to question the intentions of the party in power while also escalating social tensions.

The cost of perception management on security

Therefore there is an alarming problem of perception in Turkey that exceeds concrete discussions concerning the actual reality. The government, which is indeed known to be exceptionally successful in perception management, became the target of the very same weapon during discussions on the draft law, a fact that can be seen as another eye-opener at first glance. However, perception management in politics is not the same thing with perception management in the field of security.

As far as the field of politics is concerned, the essential goal of perception management is to convince and consolidate your own electorate. In a sense, this allows you to form your exclusive districts and ghettos. However, perception management in the field of security requires convincing the whole society. Social psychology plays a crucial role here because the people’s perception of security is at least as important as rational calculations.

If the people are predisposed to reject any arguments you present them, convincing the whole society of the accuracy of the law becomes all the more difficult. Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç’s remark that “We receive 50 percent of the votes but [the votes we receive] give place to hate speech among the other half of the society”, basically addresses the grave reality we are confronted with.

And if at least 50 percent of a society is opposing a security bill, it is not possible to maintain public order and safety through the implementation of that bill. Different social segments, even those that cannot normally get along with each other, usually form involuntary coalitions under such circumstances. And the state’s law enforcement officers significantly lose their moral superiority as well as their legitimacy as they cannot outnumber the people.

At the end of the day, the country risks facing a new round of crises despite the expectation of relief and comfort through the enaction of laws aimed at providing security.

‘Mini constitution on security’

Up until now, the government managed to consolidate its electoral base through a serious perception-building effort. However, pro-government sources, authors, columnists, and the media all address the same audience and turn a deaf ear to the rest of the society.

With regard to discussions on the Domestic Security Draft Law, the comprehensive regulations it envisages need to be approved by a coalition that is as broad as possible. In this context, domestic security bills stipulating radical changes are like “mini constitutions” which need to be established on the basis of social and political consensus. Newly issued security laws can build confidence and maintain security within a society only if they rest on the solid grounds of consensus. However, during the debate process of the draft law in Turkey, it was revealed that various segments of the society view themselves as the actual target of the law.

Conclusion

On the one hand, the distance between the rulers and the citizens is expanding. On the other, we can talk of a serious polarization within the society itself. Against such a backdrop, the Domestic Security Draft Law which is expected to be legislated soon needs a broad public consensus if it is to be implemented properly in a way that can satisfy the people’s demands. In this context, it seems unrealistic to hope that Turkey will turn into a more secure and stable country in the case that the draft law in question is legislated at this current conjuncture.

*Ihsan Bal, Head of USAK Academic Council

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Netanyahu The Mythbuster: ‘Special Relationship’ No More – OpEd

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Imagine if an American presidential candidate made a plea to his supporters on election day with the following statement: “The Republican administration is in danger. Black voters are going en masse to the polls. Liberal NGOs are bringing them on buses.”

Even in a country where Chris Matthews is a media celebrity and Pamela Geller is an intellectual, the statement would be scandalous, a political death wish even. In Israel, however, the opposite is true.

In a message delivered in a video on Facebook, incumbent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a sinister call appealing to ingrained racism in Israeli society:

“The right-wing government is in danger. Arab voters are going en masse to the polls. Left-wing NGOs are bringing them on buses.”

Netanyahu’s fight was not exactly against the Arabs. The Joint List, which united various Arab parties as a response to new Israeli laws aimed at reducing their representation in the Knesset, came third with 14 seats. Though this is an impressive showing nonetheless, it falls short of being an imminent threat to Netanyahu or the Labor (Zionist Union) Party.

Using an imagined Arab threat as a fearmongering tactic is an Israeli political staple. It is a notion founded before the creation of Israel over the ruins of historic Palestine in 1948. But what makes Netanyahu’s latest statement more important than usual is that the Israeli leader blew to bits a well-guarded secret – at least in mainstream media – that Israel is a racist country. Not only did Netanyahu make the racist call to save his career and stay in the race, he actually won with a substantial margin precisely because of that very call.

Indeed, racism was in fact the reason behind his “surprise” election victory. He is now on his way to becoming a prime minister for the fourth time, as his Likud Party secured 30 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The supposed “left” mostly represented in the Zionist Union won 24 seats, although their political programme was virtually indistinguishable from Likud.

For Netanyahu’s main challenger, Isaac Herzog, Palestinians hardly existed. The occupation was a non-issue for him and for most Israeli political rivals for that matter. His foreign policy programme was either identical to Netanyahu’s or was largely based on deferring foreign policy issues to a later date. The soft-speaking Herzog had no qualms about keeping the illegal Jewish settlements intact – which stands at the crux of Israeli military occupation of Palestine.

“No matter who emerges as the prime minister following the election and the inevitable weeks of haggling and horse-trading that go into forming a coalition,” wrote Michael J Koplow, “Israel’s foreign policy on the big issues will be marked by consistency rather than transformation.”

Although Netanyahu vowed to oppose a future Palestinian state – raising concerns among his Western allies – Herzog, too, practically opposed a contiguous and sovereign Palestinian state because no such state could possibly co-exist with colonial settlements and military occupation.

However, the US administration and media pundits didn’t seem to be bothered by Herzog as they were by Netanyahu’s grandstanding over Arab voters being bussed in droves or his intentions to block a Palestinian state. If the prospective foreign policy outcome of both leaders would have been the same, why didn’t the Obama administration object as strongly to Herzog’s political programme as to Netanyahu’s racist rants?

One of the reasons is that Netanyahu deviated from an unwritten script that sustained the Washington-Tel Aviv alliance for decades and has served as the central discourse to the so-called peace process. According to that script, Israel is allowed to virtually do as it pleases in Palestine as long as it adheres to a strict, agreed upon narrative.

But in his hunger for power and in line with his unquenchable arrogance, Netanyahu violated the code. For Washington, a red line is being frequently crossed and it is becoming increasingly difficult for Washington to maintain a special relationship with Israel, which, under Netanyahu is paying no heed to the foreign policy interests of the United States.

Despite protest by the Obama administration, Netanyahu’s triumphant speech in US Congress on 3 March was perhaps the most humiliating political episode in US politics in many years.

In the long run, that strategy could backfire. Netanyahu’s antics are increasingly denying the US administration a prolonged, tired and failed discourse pertaining to the peace process, Israeli security, democracy and so on, leaving the White House with two stark choices: to follow the lead of a racist and obsessive Netanyahu (as many Republicans and Democrats have already done) or to part ways.

Thanks to Netanyahu, some of the misleading Israeli myths promoted as facts by Israel supporters are now falling apart.

First, Israel cannot be a Jewish and democratic state. There is no such thing. Jewish democracy is as flawed as any democracy that promotes the interest of any specific racial or ethnic group at the expense of all others. The collective cognitive dissonance that has been streamlined into Israeli thinking that democracy can be tailored to fit racial and ethnic needs is completely unacceptable as a sensible democratic standard.

Democracy is grounded on pluralism and inclusion, not racial exclusion and fearmongering about Arabs voting in droves. The fact that 4.5 million Palestinians don’t have the right to vote in an area under Israel control says volumes. The fact that Palestinians who voted in a democratic Palestinian elections in 2006 are still suffering a punishing siege to this day because of that choice, is particularly devastating.

Second, Israel is not an American ally and there is no “special relationship”. Netanyahu’s speech about Iran at the US Congress in defiance of President Obama and declared US foreign policy on Iran’s nuclear programme was the last nail in the coffin of the tired argument that Israel and the US are unified by a clear set of mutual interests. The “tail wagging the dog” argument is back in full force, and Americans must understand that their country’s political elites are torn between the interests of their country and those of Israel. No amount of reasoning about the “special relationship” will rectify the damage created by Netanyahu.

Third, the peace process was a farce from the start. In fact, it was designed to be a farce, meant to manage but not resolve the conflict. The Americans had come to terms with the idea that they cannot pressure Israel to alter its policies, thus designed the peace process as a way to promote an illusion that a two-state solution to the conflict is still possible, placing the US at the helm of being a mediator between both parties.

It mattered little if the “peace process” dragged on for a century more, as long as both parties remained verbally committed to the unfeasible idea of a two-state solution. While Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas kept reiterating his lines as requested by Washington – in exchange for money and political support from the US and its Western allies – Netanyahu reneged, not just unmasking Israel, but exposing the American-led farce altogether. With no two-state discourse, there is no peace process, thus there is no American strategy in the Middle East and this leads to the question: now what?

As for Palestinians, they are not exactly “happy” that Netanyahu has won, but some see his victory as an important step towards confronting the 20-year charade of the peace process. They are not “relieved” that a man with a racist and bloody legacy will invite more terror and war, but they understand that regardless of the outcome, their suffering will endure, as will the siege and the occupation.

While there is little that Palestinians can learn from the outcome of Israeli elections, there is much for Americans to think about.

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Israel Spied On Iran Nuclear Talks With US – OpEd

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When Israel is described as one of America’s closest allies, maybe more emphasis should be placed on the term close than ally — as in too close, which would be to call Israel, America’s most intrusive, troublesome ally.

And this would explain why, as U.S. officials say: “The U.S. expends more counterintelligence resources fending off Israeli spy operations than any other close ally.”

What the following report speaks to is a conviction among Israeli leaders and their supporters — many of whom are American citizens — that Israel has a right to use any means available not merely to influence but rather to control and if needs be, to sabotage U.S. foreign policy.

The Wall Street Journal reports: Soon after the U.S. and other major powers entered negotiations last year to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, senior White House officials learned Israel was spying on the closed-door talks.

The spying operation was part of a broader campaign by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to penetrate the negotiations and then help build a case against the emerging terms of the deal, current and former U.S. officials said. In addition to eavesdropping, Israel acquired information from confidential U.S. briefings, informants and diplomatic contacts in Europe, the officials said.

The espionage didn’t upset the White House as much as Israel’s sharing of inside information with U.S. lawmakers and others to drain support from a high-stakes deal intended to limit Iran’s nuclear program, current and former officials said.

“It is one thing for the U.S. and Israel to spy on each other. It is another thing for Israel to steal U.S. secrets and play them back to U.S. legislators to undermine U.S. diplomacy,” said a senior U.S. official briefed on the matter.

The U.S. and Israel, longtime allies who routinely swap information on security threats, sometimes operate behind the scenes like spy-versus-spy rivals. The White House has largely tolerated Israeli snooping on U.S. policy makers—a posture Israel takes when the tables are turned.

The White House discovered the operation, in fact, when U.S. intelligence agencies spying on Israel intercepted communications among Israeli officials that carried details the U.S. believed could have come only from access to the confidential talks, officials briefed on the matter said.

Israeli officials denied spying directly on U.S. negotiators and said they received their information through other means, including close surveillance of Iranian leaders receiving the latest U.S. and European offers. European officials, particularly the French, also have been more transparent with Israel about the closed-door discussions than the Americans, Israeli and U.S. officials said.

Mr. Netanyahu and Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer early this year saw a rapidly closing window to increase pressure on Mr. Obama before a key deadline at the end of March, Israeli officials said.

Using levers of political influence unique to Israel, Messrs. Netanyahu and Dermer calculated that a lobbying campaign in Congress before an announcement was made would improve the chances of killing or reshaping any deal. [Continue reading…]

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US-Syria Cultural Heritage Cooperation? – OpEd

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Syria’s Director-General of Antiquates and Museums, Dr. Maamoun |Abdul-Karim, as well as other officials including the Ministers of Culture, Information and Tourism often speak of their beloved country being “an open-air museum.” Few would challenge their characterization as the global community focuses increasingly on how to stop crimes against culture which are now widely viewed as crimes against the common heritage of humanity.

Identifying and stopping the current spread of looting and shadowy illegal antiquities marketplaces requires their exposure to sunshine. One is reminded of some wise counsel from U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis back in 1913: “Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants. If the broad light of day could be let in upon men’s actions, it would purify them as the sun disinfects.”

Toward this end, the UN Security Council and particularly Turkey, need to cooperate much more with Syria to halt the trade in looted antiquities that helps fund jihadist groups. To its credit, on 2/12/2015, the Security Council passed a resolution identifying groups such as ISIS and Al Nusra Front of generating income by selling antiquities looted in the conflict and the UNSC is well aware that Turkey has been facilitating smuggling of cultural heritage treasures across it (560-mile) border. Turkey has become the main route for looted Syrian antiquities, followed by Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan. A BBC Radio 4 report of 2/17/2015 quoted a ‘middle man’ who sells looted Syrian artifacts to international dealers: “From Turkey the final destination is Western Europe, he says. “Turkish merchants sell it to dealers in Europe. They call them, send pictures… people from Europe come to check the goods and take them away.”

Frankly put, if there is not greater international cooperation with the Syrian government to stamp out the current scourge then our global heritage, cannot be preserved. As Syrian Minister of Culture, Issam Khalil explained during a recent meeting in his office in central Damascus, “We have the conclusive documents and evidence to prove our ownership of these antiquities and we also have the will and readiness to cooperate with any serious effort to prevent smuggling of Syrian antiquities abroad.”

One of the strongest laws in effect and which is being enforced wherever security permits is Syria’s 1963 Antiquities Law, as amended in 1999. The regulatory law is divided into six chapters, corresponding to general provisions, immovable antiquities, movable antiquities, excavations, penalties and miscellaneous provisions.

Syria’s law is driven by the idea that cultural goods represent a public interest, and is characterized by a strict retentive spirit and a punitive set of sanctions because the government and people of Syria believe that antiquities belong to the state and should be exhibited in museums not exported to the highest international bidder. The law provides that the owner of an antiquity or piece of land where the archaeological site is situated receives payment of a “suitable financial reward” in the case of movable antiquities (Article 35) and compensation irrespective “of the archaeological, artistic or historical value of expropriated buildings and areas” (Article 20). In all circumstances the state has the exclusive power to oversee the conservation, pertinent modifications or archaeological excavations of the sites.

Among its provisions are the following:

The general export of antiquities is altogether banned, as Article 69 provides that an export license may only be granted with regard to antiquities that are to be exchanged with museums and other scientific institutions, and with regard to antiquities given to an organization or mission after excavations are finished. Moreover, any relocation of antiquities within Syria’s borders requires the permission of the pertinent authorities (Article 40). There are two provisions in the prescriptive part directly relevant to the current armed conflict. Article 7 prohibits, inter alia, destroying, transforming and damaging both movable and immovable antiquities by writing on them, engraving on them, or changing their features. Article 26 bans building military facilities within 500 meters of registered immovable archaeological and historical properties. The law does not contemplate the suspension of its obligations in exceptional circumstances and continues to apply today during the current conflict. But as DGAMS’ Dr. Abdul-Karim has noted, it is difficult to ensure “the protection of the immovable heritage in the country, especially for those archaeological and world heritage sites that are located in conflict areas and cannot be accessed.”

Engulfed in civil war, without an end in sight, Syria has employed its 1963 law with amendments and its governmental institutions and local community support and this country for the benefit of all of us who value our past. Syria is taking the lead to make a big difference but her people need help from those who share their values about our past and who are able to help. Intensified law enforcement efforts directed at investigating and prosecuting cultural heritage trafficking must be supported by the government and people of every country.

International criminal law in many ways is still in its infancy. Yet, hoping to accelerate prospects of achieving international criminal accountability has been a driving force behind the adoption of laws for the protection of cultural heritage. No fewer than 37 countries are currently considering strengthening their laws to stop importation and illicit commerce in looted Syrian cultural heritage artifacts, doubtless a reaction to the iconoclastic nihilist’s crimes in this region.

This growing international commitment to beef up criminal responsibility laws is good. But it is not good enough.

US-Syria cultural heritage cooperation?

This past week, legislation introduced in the U.S. Congress could facilitate cooperation between Syria and America, and joint efforts to preserve and protect our shared cultural heritage may well spread into the political arena according to sponsors of the Protect and Preserve International Cultural Property Act (H.R. 5703). “The fight to preserve our common cultural heritage, as well as to deny extremists such as ISIL [Islamic State in Iraq and Syria] resources from the sale of blood antiquities, is yet another front on the global war against terror,” proclaimed co-sponsor Congressman Chris Smith (R-N.J).

The bill would create a cultural property protection czar and set up import restrictions to prevent looted and smuggled Syrian heritage material from crossing America’s borders and would advance four articulated U.S. policy goals:

(1) Protect and preserve international cultural property at risk of destruction in Syria due to political instability, armed conflict, or natural or other disasters;
(2) Protect Syrian and international cultural property pursuant to its obligations under the 1954 Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict and customary international law in all conflicts to which the United States is a party;
(3) Prevent, in accordance with existing laws, importation of Syria’s cultural property pillaged, looted, or stolen during political instability, armed conflict, or natural or other disasters; and
(4) Ensure that existing laws and regulations, including import restrictions are fully implemented to prevent the trafficking in stolen or looted Syria cultural property.

The legislation also attempts to offer a solution to the current cumbersome US statutory framework, which c requires Syria’s government—to first ask the State Department for American import controls restricting cultural objects. The barrier to date has been that the US government recognized the rebels as the legitimate governing authority of the Syrian Arab Republic in 2012 so cooperation has not yet happened.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has pledged to launch an international campaign that protects Syria’s and the world’s cultural property while putting politics aside. In doing so Kerry labeled the destruction of heritage in Syria “a purposeful final insult” which is “stealing the soul of millions.” He referred to the devastation in the Ancient City of Aleppo and to the extensive looting of Apamea and Dura Europos as a tragedy for the Syrian people and the rest of the world, and remarked: “How shocking and historically shameful it would be if we did nothing while the forces of chaos rob the very cradle of our civilization.”

Steny Hoyer, from Maryland’s 5th District, commented the other day. “If the US can work with the Iranians over the nuclear file, surely we can work with Syria to preserve the cultural heritage that belongs to all people regardless of politics. Our mutual heritage is bigger than today’s political differences and we must work together. And I think the White House is ready and this may happen soon.”

 

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India And The Blue Seas: Breaking From The Past – Analysis

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By Bhaskar Roy*

Finally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has succeeded in breaking the frozen mindset of the Indian foreign policy establishment which was used to sweeping challenges under the carpet.

One such officer once commented to this writer that India should somehow resolve the border issue with China because a delay would put India against a much stronger China. He forgot that India would also get stronger. There was a defeatist attitude even when meeting the arrogance of small neighbours.

Arrogance, assertiveness or a hegemonist attitude is not advocated. But India has certain rights and responsibilities given its size, geographic position and geopolitical role to secure its interests.

Mr. Modi’s recent tour of Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka, in that order, demonstrated a reversal of foreign policy. His talks were not overbearing, but correct in the overall scheme of things. India’s coffers are not overflowing, but there is enough to support maritime neighbours in their security and development. A secure and developing neighbourhood is an assurance for India’s own security and development. Also, a strong defence is a guarantor for peaceful development. The two are interdependent.

Finally, there is an open declaration of the importance of the Indian Ocean for India’s future. Can the Indian government continue to build on Modi’s initiative? The temptation to concentrate almost all energy on Pakistan will still be there. India must explore ways to deal with Islamabad through its mentors, especially China and the cold warriors in the USA.

While India’s immediate threat comes from the land borders, its long term security and development are dependent on the seas and oceans. India’s trade is mainly ocean dependent, as are the vital energy imports including coal at the moment. Around 90% of India’s energy requirements are imported.

In both the Seychelles and Mauritius Mr. Modi’s approach was to assist security and economic development. Seychelles was invited to join the India-Sri Lanka-Maldives maritime security co-operation. A second Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft was gifted. Agreements signed included infrastructure development, especially in the Assumption Islands. Seychelles is already a recipient of Indian economic assistance.

In Mauritius, Mr. Modi emphasized security co-operation, the high point of which was the gift of a 1,300 tone India built (read made in India) maritime patrol boat, aimed at anti-piracy missions along the African coast. A US$ 500 million concessional credit line was extended, as well as building petroleum storage and bunking facility, and building a second cyber city. Perhaps most important in strategic context was recognition to and encouragement of Mauritius to play a greater role in the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) with the secretariat of the body located in Mauritius.

A vision exposition that came out during the visit was India’s civilizational links with the Indian Ocean countries. These links are very strong even today, and built not on military conquest but through trade, cultural and political relations, and also through migrations in some form or the other. Mauritius hosts the World Hindi Secretariat. In the course of recent history some of these links received some battering as in the Maldives and in Sri Lanka. In some cases India has been remiss and its foreign policy not clear sighted. These can be repaired and regenerated.

Sri Lanka is the diamond pendant in the Indian Ocean separated from India by the Palk Strait – a bare 22 miles of water. It is also the hub in the Indian Ocean where all stake holders both within and outside the region are focused. It is of prime importance for India’s security and the security of the Indian Ocean – the two are not separate but flow into each other.

The political situation in Sri Lanka went through tumultuous times with the Tamil issue and the LTTE’s (Tamil Tigers) separatist war. The war and the Sri Lankan Tamil issue put India in a difficult situation in Sri Lanka. With the war over in 2009 it was expected that India – Sri Lanka relations would return to normalcy. But it did not.

Erstwhile Sri Lankan president, Mahinda Rajapaksa played a ridiculous game in domestic policy and foreign relations, introducing a family dictatorship. Till he was defeated in the January elections this year he tried to snub India and established Chinese strategic and military positions in the country.

This fitted in perfectly with China’s Indian Ocean strategy of building an empire of Chinese built ports, initially as economic projects. This would create the foundation of President Xi Jinping’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR). Rajapaksa signed on to both with alacrity, and Sri Lanka became China’s spring board for its Indian Ocean Empire.

Rajapaksa handed over most major infrastructure projects with strategic interest to Chinese government – owned companies, including a 99 year lease of 108 hectares of land in a US $ 1.5 billion arrangement, next to the main commercial port of Colombo. In fact, under the guise of common development, China was establishing a colony in Sri Lanka much in the way the British did with Hong Kong. Here, the Chinese could do anything they wanted. This would be the first Chinese colony in the island countries of the Indian Ocean. President Maithripala Sirisena has suspended this project and has moved to reverse the Rajapaksa strategy, to reestablish a sound relationship with India.

Sirisena’s first foreign trip was to India, while he sent his foreign minister Mangala Samaraweera to China to reaffirm relationship with Beijing and explain why Colombo was reviewing some projects. The Sirisena government has set a 100-day deadline to probe corruption in large scale projects including the Colombo port city.

The Chinese are concerned of course, including with security questions raised by Sirisena’s ministers over the Colombo port city and over two visits of a Chinese submarine to Colombo port last year, under the Rajapaksa regime. Samaraweera, however, assured the Chinese that ongoing projects were safe, including commitment to the Maritime Silk Road. Sirisena is scheduled to visit China soon.

Mr. Modi’s concluding visit of the blue sea in Sri Lanka was almost all encompassing. He did not flinch from talking about the Tamil issue and the problem of Indian fishermen in, as they say in diplomatic parlance, a “free, frank and polite” manner. He has the Tamils in India breathing down his neck. He got an agreement of sorts from Sirisena to stick to the 13-A constitutional amendment and beyond for devolution of power to Sri Lankan Tamils.

Apart from economic agreement and support, the Indian prime minister’s two pronged thrust highlighted civilizational and religious connectivity. The concept of a Ramayana trail in Sri Lanka and a Buddhist circuit in India is an unique approach, given the importance of Buddhism to this overwhelming Sinhalese population.

So was the agreement to set up the Rabindranth Tagore auditorium in Rahana University. Tagore had influenced Sri Lanka’s national anthem – “Sri Lanka Matha” (we salute mother Sri Lanka).

Civilizational connection and Tagore should be taken to Bangladesh where the poet and Noble Laureate is deeply revered. Bangladesh adopted his song “Amar Sonar Bangla” (My golden Bengal) as their national anthem.

India’s civilizational connectivity extends far into South East Asia too, where Indian influence was absorbed by local polities (from around 200 BC to the 15th Century) in the Kingdoms of Burma, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia and Vietnam. In Bali the “Ramayana” is still enacted as a play. And the temple of Angkor Vat in Kampuchea, depicting the influence of Hinduism, is a most lucrative tourist attraction.

Buddhism spread to South East Asia from India and this bond is very much alive as demonstrated by religious tourism from countries of this region to Bodh Gaya. India’s legitimate bond with South East Asia must be exploited in terms of today’s geo-politics.

Sri Lanka, and perhaps even the Maldives, may become centers of contention between China and India in the Indian Ocean, unless matters are handled carefully by all sides concerned.

The Chinese government has been repeatedly urging the Sri Lankan government to protect the interests of Chinese investors, following the suspension of the Colombo port project. Xinhua (March 17) the Chinese official news agency said the port project would have created 85,000 jobs but the Sirisena government decided to reexamine the project and reconsider the outright transfer of land to China under the deal.

This is a subtle caution to the Sirisena government. The government declared recently that its investigators had discovered US $ 2 billion secretly transferred to Dubai accounts by people close to the Rajapaksa government. The total amount of foreign exchange ferreted out by the Rajapaksa family and cronies are more than US $ 10 billion. Sri Lankan media had earlier reported bribes paid by Chinese companies to the Rajapaksa family members and their close associates. If these investigations unearth evidence of Chinese bribery, which the Chinese government would routinely deny, it will seriously upset the Chinese.

The Chinese would suspect an Indian influence in Sri Lanka and especially with the Sirisena government. They are unlikely to react openly but will very likely take up the Sri Lankan development with Prime Minister Narendra Modi when he visits China in May.

In fact, some signs of China attacking India and Mr. Modi on Sri Lanka is already visible. Liu Zhongyi, a researcher at Shanghai Institute of Internal Studies, a government backed think tank, wrote that Modi’s visit to Jaffna in Tamil majority northern Sri Lanka showed “Indian interference in the country’s internal affairs”. Modi’s visit to the three Indian Ocean island states demonstrated India’s determination to “gain a dominant position in the region by enhancing military and security cooperation with them”, Liu added.

Liu Zhongyi’s article in the English language official newspaper the Global Times obviously has official clearance, at least from the Chinese foreign ministry. Choice of the English language media is to ensure quick dissemination in South Asia and countries concerned, and raise anti-India sentiments. It may not be forgotten that till not so long ago the Chinese officially had unleashed a propaganda barrage accusing India of harboring hegemonistic desires over its neighbours.

The Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece, the People’s Daily recently confirmed that a second aircraft carrier was well into construction. Admiral Yin Zhou, a member of the CPPCC’s National committee observed that China must continue to build aircraft carriers to maintain the security of its Indian Ocean routes. In his view China required at least five to six aircraft carriers.

A study by three researchers at the Beijing Naval Research Center published in a recent issue of Pacific Journal termed the Indian naval strategy as an expansionist maritime strategy constituting a threat to China’s far sea life lines. The authors viewed India’s ‘Look East’ strategy as challenge to China’s geopolitical security, and the possibility of India joining Japan’s ‘Down South’ strategy and the USA’s “Rebalance to the Asia-Pacific” as posing great harm to China’s maritime security and development of sea powers. Such a move would squeeze China’s strategic space and strategic interests in places like the South China Sea.

While saying that a China-India war was unthinkable, the study advocated the following 16- character policy platform for Beijing’s Indian Ocean plan: “meticulously choose points, develop a low key layout, choose cooperation and slowly permeate”. This closely aligns with Deng Xiaoping’s theory of “build your strength, bide your time”. There is, however, a large and influential strategic thinkers’ community which has pushed the nation to almost discard Deng’s theory and aggressively pursue its interests.

President Xi Jinping has emphatically pushed his 21st Century Maritime Silk Road strategy. During his visit to South Asia in September 2014, Xi ensured that Sri Lanka and Maldives accede to this strategy. China has been working on the Maldives for a long time. In 2001, in a period of six months, three high level Chinese delegations visited Maldives. These included Premier Zhu Rongji and Chief of General staff of the PLA, Gen Fu Quanyu. There are reports that China has sought berthing facilities for its ships in the Maldives.

The onus is on Mr. Modi to do something in the Maldives, with the recent setback in bilateral relations over the 13 year jail sentence for ex-prime minister Nasheed by the Abdullah Yameen government for terrorism.

On the one hand India – China relations are improving especially on the economic sector with Xi Jinping declaring a US $ 20 billion investment in India in the next five years when he visited India last year.

On the other hand potential problems can come out as India expands its ‘Look East’ policy, and takes steps to protect its maritime interest. The Indian Ocean cannot be allowed to fall into an atmosphere of confrontation. China must exercise its responsibility and not push India.

*The writer is a New Delhi based strategic analyst. He can be reached at e-mail grouchohart@yahoo.com

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Sri Lanka: 19th Amendment Bill Tabled In Parliament

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Sri Lanka Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe presented the Bill entitled “Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution” in Parliament yesterday.

The Prime Minister said the agreement was to pass the Bill in a manner that a referendum would not be required.

However, he said, as several petitions relating to the 19th Amendment have already been filed in the Supreme Court, the government is awaiting the determination of the Supreme Court in this regard.

The 19th Amendment to the Constitution will annul the 18th Amendment while replacing the now defunct 17th Amendment to establish the Independent Commissions.

It would also remove the Executive Presidential powers and limit the term of office of the President to five years.

The President will continue to function as the Head of State and Head of Security Forces.

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Sri Lanka’s Sirisena Travels To China For Four-Day State Visit

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Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena left for China on Wednesday commencing a four-day state visit on the invitation of the President of China Xi Jinping.

President Maithripala Sirisena will leave for China this afternoon commencing a four-day state visit on the invitation of the President of China Xi Jinping.

The President, along with many other world leaders, is scheduled to attend the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2015, which will be held in Boao, Hainan Province from March 26 to 29 under the theme of Asia’s New

Future: Towards a Community of Common Destiny.

Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) is a non-governmental and non-profit international organization with a fixed conference date and a fixed domicile.

Proposed in 1998 by Fidel V. Ramos, former President of the Philippines, Bob Hawke, former Prime Minister of Australia, and Morihiro Hosokawa, former Prime Minister of Japan, BFA was formally inaugurated on February 27, 2001.

During his stay in China, President Maithripala is expected to hold bilateral discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping as well as Prime Minister Li Keqiang and senior government officials. The talks will center on further enhancing cooperation between the two countries in areas of trade, investment, tourism, culture, science and technology, and regional and international affairs, in addition to Sri Lanka – China Free Trade Agreement.

Since the establishment of full diplomatic ties in 1957, Sri Lanka has continuously maintained close and friendly relations with China. The two countries have regularly exchanged high-level visits resulting in a variety of agreements. China has emerged as one of Sri Lanka’s key development partners in the recent years.

Sri Lanka was among the first countries to recognize the People’s Republic of China.

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Nigeria: Boko Haram Kidnaps Over 400 Hundred Including Women, Children

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“The abductions and attacks will continue, annihilating the ‘caliphate’ will not be enough”, said to MISNA Shehu Sanu, head of the Civil Rights Congress of Nigeria (CRC), amidst confirmation of a new mass abduction by the Islamist Boko Haram group.

The mass abduction was reported by residents in Damasak, a town near the border with Niger freed from Boko Haram control last month in the joint operation with troops from Niger and Chad. Colonel Toumba Mohamed, spokesman of Chadian units in Damasak, said that residents reported over 400 women, teens and children kidnapped. After the Islamists left the town, the troops said that last week they found the bodies of at least 70 people in an apparent execution site under a bridge leading out of Damasak.

The CRC human rights organization, which has a vast network of sources in North Nigeria, has received several reports of such findings. According to Sani, violence against civilians such as that reported in Damasak is also an act of reprisal by the Boko Haram for the joint military counter-offensive and loss of control over towns and districts. “If the Nigerian, Chadian and Niger troops continue to cooperate, as they have done over the past weeks, Boko Haram will soon have no safe haven, even on the Mandara Mountains or Gwoza, capital of the ‘caliphate’ declared in August”, said Sani.

Fear and tension however remains high three days ahead of Nigeria’s presidential and legislative elections, as confirmed today by the national media. A fear, according to the CRC head, also heightened by the fact that the over 200 Chibok schoolgirls abducted last April 14 appear to have disappeared in thin air.

The post Nigeria: Boko Haram Kidnaps Over 400 Hundred Including Women, Children appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US Removes 45 Cuban Companies And Individuals From Blacklist

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The United States removed 45 Cuban companies, individuals and ships from a sanctions blacklist for suspected links to terrorism or international drug trafficking. The move marks a new step in lifting restrictions on Cuba’s economy in a progressive thaw in relations between Washington and Havana.

The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control “removed six people, 28 companies and 11 vessels from the list”, which however doesn’t entail Cuba’s removal from US State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Several of the companies operate in Cuba’s tourism and fishing industries. More than 30 of the 45 companies, individuals and vessels are currently based in Panama despite having originated in Cuba.

The sanctions imposed on those companies and individuals barred them from doing business in the US and froze any assets they may have had. According to internal sources, the move “is in line with the new Cuba policy” announced in December by President Barack Obama.

The post US Removes 45 Cuban Companies And Individuals From Blacklist appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Germanwings Pilots Refuse To Fly After Crash

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Several Germanwings flights were cancelled on Tuesday after their crews refused to fly, as it emerged that the aircraft which crashed in the French Alps had been grounded for an hour for repairs the day before the accident.

Pilots and cabin crew refused to fly over concerns the crash may have been linked to a repair to the nose-wheel landing doors on Monday, according to an unconfirmed report in Spiegel magazine.

Lufthansa denied that there was any link between the repair and the cancelled flights.

Crews were refusing to fly for “personal reasons”, a spokesman for the airline group said.

The airline confirmed that the aircraft which crashed into the Alps had been grounded for an hour on Monday for repairs to the nose-wheel landing doors, but insisted the issue was not “safety-related”.

“The repair was purely to fix a noise that the door was making, and the aircraft was flying again from 10am on Monday,” the spokesman said.

It completed several flights safely after the repair before the accident, she added.

Lufthansa admitted that several Germanwings flights had to be cancelled after crews refused to fly, but said it was because they were in “deep distress” over the accident.

A report in the online version of the widely respected Spiegel claimed that the crews’ reluctance to fly was linked to concerns that the repair may have contributed to the flight.

Further disruption is expected today after Germanwings flights from Dusseldorf to several destinations were cancelled.

Three flights from Stuttgart were also cancelled.

There were reports of lights at Dusseldorf being cancelled as passengers waited to board at the gate, and of airline ground staff advising passengers to hire cars to complete their journeys instead.

Reports that Lufthansa’s own flights were also affected were denied by the airline.

The post Germanwings Pilots Refuse To Fly After Crash appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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