By Rajesh Rajagopalan*

Iran and the major powers (EU3+3) have reached a very preliminary and extremely vague agreement on principles for an agreement, released in the form of an exceedingly brief joint statement of less than 500 words. Whether this ’agreement about an agreement’ would lead to an actual deal is anybody’s guess, but it’s not going to be easy. Both sides have agreed it will be done by June 30, but no one should be surprised if this self-imposed is missed.

One reason for the difficulty in reaching an actual deal is that in their desire to conclude this political framework, a lot has been left fuzzy which will need to be clarified in the actual deal. The advantage of leaving things unclear is that both sides can claim victory (and they are), but the problem is that they are already disagreeing in their interpretation of what has been agreed. Within hours of the joint statement being released, the Iranians criticised the Obama administration for ’spinning’ the deal in a factsheet the White House released. For their part, the Iranians also released their own ’factsheet’, with their interpretation of the agreement.

The joint statement released by Iran and the EU3+3 provides few details. The White House factsheet is three times longer and provides specifics, but it’s a US interpretation of what was agreed, parts of which Teheran has already dismissed. For example, the White House factsheet specifies durations for the deal: number of centrifuges will be limited for 10 years, uranium enrichment will be limited for 15, no new enrichment facilities for 15 years and so on. But the official joint statement mentions no time limits for the agreement, using phrases such as ’specified duration’ and ’mutually agreed period of time’.

The lack of some details is particularly troubling. A key issue is how Iranian behaviour is to be monitored, which is the task of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The joint statement is equivocal on this, talking about the ’provisional application’ of the IAEA ’Additional Protocol’ (AP). The AP does permit quite intrusive inspections, including challenge inspections if there is intelligence of covert nuclear activities, but it is unclear what ’provisional application’ means or whether Iran has actually agreed to challenge inspections. For example, a key dispute between the IAEA and Iran has been Teheran’s refusal to allow inspections at Parchin, a military base near Teheran, where the IAEA suspects Iran conducted tests related to nuclear weapons. Whether Iran will permit such inspections now is unclear.

As important as the limits on Iran’s nuclear programme are, it is probably even more important that IAEA have unbridled rights to inspect Iran’s compliance, especially considering that Iran has yet to fully answer questions about its past nuclear activities, called ’Possible Military Dimensions’ (PMD) in the IAEA parlance. Both the joint statement and the White House factsheet is vague on this issue too, suggesting that Iran has not agreed to intrusive challenge inspections. Any agreement would be meaningless without this.

For Teheran, the key issue is the lifting of sanctions and there are significant differences between the two sides on this too. Iranian leaders have insisted that their understanding is that sanctions will be lifted from day one, while US Secretary of State John Kerry has written in an article in the Boston Globe that sanctions relief will be given “only if Iran lives up to its obligations, as verified by the IAEA and by our own eyes and ears.”

In short, the available details say very little about any actual deal, which means that much of the deal either still remains to be negotiated or is in too preliminary (or too explosive) a state for public consumption. What this suggests is that the Iranians are correct about Obama and Kerry trying to spin what has been agreed to, which does not bode well for a comprehensive final deal.

Beyond the implications of the deal for settling the Iran nuclear case file, it is unlikely that it will mean much for the increasingly brutal politics in the region or even for the global nuclear order. Saudi Arabia has reacted cautiously while Israel has rejected the deal, noting that most restrictions will end in 10-15 years, leaving Iran with a capacity for a fairly large nuclear sector. Both Israel and the Sunni powers in the region face an increasingly aggressive Iran which they fear will now become bolder, and with sanctions removed and a nascent nuclear capability, more capable of mischief.

For the non-proliferation order, what the negotiations have revealed yet again is that great powers are today far too divided to maintain any global order. Combined with American reluctance to support even its closest allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia, the attraction of nuclear weapons will increase for those now dependent on American protection. A good deal can settle some of these anxieties, but this preliminary agreement does not suggest much hope.

*Dr. Rajesh Rajagopalan is a professor at the Centre for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University

The post Iran Nuclear Agreement: Unclear And Extremely Vague – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Singapore’s transformation from third world to first stands out as a model to African countries. Still there is a danger that African leaders take the wrong lessons from Singapore’s success.

By Greg Mills*

‘One of the asymmetries of history,’ wrote Henry Kissinger of Lee Kuan Yew, ‘is the lack of correspondence between the abilities of some leaders and the power of their countries.’ Kissinger’s one-time boss, Richard Nixon, was even more flattering. He speculated that, had Lee lived in another time and another place, he might have ‘attained the world stature of a Churchill, a Disraeli, or a Gladstone’.

In other words: it was a shame Lee had a small country. Yet it is precisely because Lee did run a small state that Singapore’s transformation from third world to first, to use the title of his autobiography, should stand out as a model to African countries of transformation, against the odds and their colonial inheritance.

Singapore’s lessons for Africa

Still there is a danger that Africans, especially their leaders, take the wrong lessons from Singapore’s success. In 2008, when living and working in Rwanda for President Paul Kagame, I was asked to prepare a summary of Singapore’s key lessons. The island-state it seemed, despite the obvious differences to landlocked Rwanda, was an attractive development analogue.

Like its Southeast Asian counterpart, Rwanda is small, densely populated and largely without resources. Both have had to confront crisis. While Lee had steered Singapore from the political turmoil of the failure of the Malaysian Federation in 1965, Kagame’s Rwanda Patriotic Front had taken over amidst extraordinary crisis in 1994, a genocide, a terrible failure in controlling ethnic and racial diversity, a feature which Singapore has also had to manage.

A combination of the orderly discipline of Singaporeans, their leadership and bureaucracy with a catalytic role for the state in business, such as through the US$180 billion Singapore investment company Temasek, potentially offered another more interventionist development route to that preferred by Western donors. Singapore’s mandatory Central Provident Fund savings scheme promoted by Lee, which enabled the building of public housing on a grand scale, also seemingly offered a way around the chronically low savings’ rate in Rwanda as elsewhere in Africa.

Kagame seemed among those leaders who, admirably from this author’s vantage, like Lee, were concerned with the finest detail of government, leaving nothing to chance. Certainly, there is much to learn from Singapore’s rapid transition from a malaria-ridden swamp to an innovation and technology leader. By 1970, in just five years from independence, Singapore’s per capita GDP had increased to $950, and unemployment was under 3 per cent. By the turn of the century, per capita GDP was $24,000; in the five decades since independence, per capita GDP has increased not less than thirteen-fold in real terms.

Danger of wrong lessons

There is, regardless, a danger that Africans routinely take the wrong lessons from Lee and from Singapore.The first of such ‘wrong lessons’ is that an authoritarian government is necessary for growth or for difficult decisions to be made. Yes, the island like others in the region – including South Korea, China, Indonesia and Taiwan – has modernised under a system of rigid political control. Still Singapore has enjoyed extraordinary freedom of individual choice and economic openness, a gentle autocracy quite distinct from usually violent and corrupt African eras of authoritarian rule of which Lee himself was critical.

Moreover, while some might like Lee’s ‘big man’ image, the reality of Singapore is far more nuanced in involving much more than one person and fundamentally being reliant on institutions in the pursuit of development. Although Lee presented the articulate public face and adroitly managed the politics and personalities, his was a formidable team. Lee’s memoirs are testament to how highly he regarded the opinion of his colleagues and how often there were differences of outlook within government on key issues.

Additionally, Singapore made sure that the best and brightest were attracted, that they were paid properly, and they were given full support by leadership to do their job. As Lee observed ‘equal opportunities for all and meritocracy, with the best man or woman for the job, especially in leaders in government’, were ‘basic principles that have helped us progress’. With delegated power and authority went responsibility of course.

In contrast to the xenophobia and identity politics suffered in Africa, the importation of talent has been another key aspect. From little over one million people at independence, of Singapore’s current population of 5.3 million, around 1.5 million are expatriates, permanent residents or migrant workers. The injection of immigrants is part of a strategy to maintain GDP targets, and synchs with need for Singapore’s continuous innovation and efficiency.

Singapore’s right lessons

Singapore is a ‘right lesson’ also in the continuous search for competitive advantage. A very flexible labour market helps companies to withstand external shocks, changes and challenges, driven by a philosophy that ‘it is better to have a low-paying job than no job at all’ – a political anathema in contemporary South Africa, to take one African example. In Singapore, too, a symbiotic relationship is structured between government, the unions and business.

All this has been underpinned by a drive to globalise rather than nationalise. Whereas African countries routinely make it difficult to move goods in and out and are inherently suspicious of the motives of foreign investors, Singapore has capitalised on its strategic geographic crossroads by matching policies and the focus of institutions: There is a zero tariff on imported goods; low tax rates; a range of free trade agreements; vigorous trade and export promotion; and nearly 40,000 international corporations on the island, including 7,000 multinationals.

Singapore has avoided trying to buck the markets or the needs and sensitivities of multinational companies and international finance. To the contrary, it has always acted to strengthen regulatory institutions to negate any perception of developing country risk.

African governments like to cite Singapore as an example in the maintenance of their own parastatals and ‘partystatals’ (companies owned and/or run by ruling parties), both routinely notorious in crowding out private sector competition to the advantage of narrow financial and patronage interests. Again, such lessons are wide of the mark. Even though it is government- owned for example, Temasek’s strategy and role is based on commercial rather than political rationale.

Forward looking legacy

Singapore is thus a ‘right lesson’ for Africa in leadership, planning, continuous innovation, commercial logic and using its only natural resource – its people and minds – to best effect.

By the 1990s, Singapore’s per capita GDP was higher than that of its erstwhile colonial master Britain. Today Singapore has the world’s busiest port and is the third-largest oil refinery. Under Lee’s leadership it has shown what is achievable with better choices in little more than a generation.

A remarkable aspect in Singapore’s transition is in its unwillingness to look back. Whereas many African nations berate colonialism at every turn (not least since it offers the prospect of aid and of externalising their problems and excusing regime inadequacies), Singaporeans seldom mention history as an excuse.

Perhaps Lee’s greatest legacy was to set Singapore in a direction looking forward. In so doing, he has left an extraordinary legacy, for his own country of course, but also for others aspiring to follow a similar development path.

*Greg Mills heads the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation, is the author most recently of Why States Recover (Panmacmillan, 2014) and, with Jeffrey Herbst, the forthcoming How South Africa Works (Panmacmillan, 2015). In 2014 he was a Senior Visiting Fellow at S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. This article is in collaboration with the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies, Nanyang Business School and is part of an ongoing RSIS series on The Legacy of Lee Kuan Yew.

The post Right Lessons, Wrong Lessons: Africa And Lee Kuan Yew’s Legacy – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(Civil.Ge) — Georgian Defense Minister, Mindia Janelidze, has strongly denied his predecessor Irakli Alasania’s allegations and said that talks on purchasing air defense system from France are continuing.

Usually media shy Defense Minister Janelidze had to appear twice on TV late on Friday evening giving interviews separately to public broadcaster and Maestro TV, claiming that contrary to allegations voiced by Alasania, leader of the opposition Free Democrats party, negotiations on arms deal with France is well on track and will have “its logical conclusion.” He, however, also said that “rumors” and political “speculation” has harmed this process “to some extent.”

French ambassador in Tbilisi, Renaud Salins, said on April 3 that “discussions” continue on this matter.

Alasania’s Allegations

Speaking at a news conference earlier on April 3, ex-defense minister Alasania claimed the government abandoned preliminary deal – a non-binding memorandum of understanding, which he negotiated in France shortly before being sacked from the cabinet five months ago and which would have paved the way to purchasing of much-needed air defense system.

Allegation that PM Irakli Garibashvili instructed in late October, 2014 then defense minister Alasania not to sign memorandum of understanding in France emerged shortly after Alasania was sacked after he accused the authorities of politically motivated arrests of one serving and four former MoD and general staff officials on October 28.

Since then the issue has been emerging time after time in political debates, becoming source of mutual accusations between FD party and the authorities with the Georgian Dream politicians and PM Garibashvili accusing their former ally Alasania of “harming the state interests” by “speculating” on sensitive defense matters.

Alasania says that the damage of state interests is a failure to finalize the deal by the end of March, which he claims, was envisaged by the non-binding memorandum of understanding, which he signed in Paris in late October despite receiving last-minute instructions from Tbilisi not to do so.

Speaking at a news conference on April 3 and then in an interview with the Georgian public broadcaster later on the same day, Alasania also claimed that the arrest of MoD officials while he was visiting Paris in late October aimed at exerting pressure on him with the purpose to dissuade him from signing the memorandum.

“History taught us that if we want to prevent war we should be prepared for war and be prepared for protection of peace… It requires defensive capabilities,” Alasania said at the news conference. “[PM] Garibashvili and [ex-PM] Ivanishvili made Georgia say no to obtaining precisely this type of defensive capabilities, because they have never lost anyone in war and they have never had sincere solidarity towards Georgian soldiers, defense and our armed forces.”

According to Alasania high-level political decision to strike a deal on purchase of air defense capabilities from France was made when French President François Hollande visited Tbilisi in May.

He says that it was an important decision signaling the end of so called de facto arms embargo, when Georgia’s western partners were reluctant to sell defensive weapons to Tbilisi after the August, 2008 war with Russia.

According to Alasania, proposals were elaborated and approved by the government and he was authorized to sign a preliminary deal – a memorandum of understanding – with the French side during his visit to Paris in late October.

He says that the air defense system in question, if bought by Georgia, would provide “protection against fighter and attack aircraft, as well as against short and medium-range ballistic missiles.” According to him training of the Georgian servicemen in handling of this system was also envisaged. While Alasania did not disclose the precise type of the system, military experts suggest that his description of the system corresponds most closely to Aster 30.

“An important part of the deal was that it would not have been a heavy burden for the [Georgia’s state] budget. We had an agreement to start paying after full installation of this system and in case of taking a long-term loan it would have cost our country only several dozen of millions annually,” he said without elaborating details.

But, Alasania says, on the eve of the planned signing, he received a phone call on October 27 from Mindia Janelidze, who at the time was secretary of security and crisis management council under the PM, who conveyed PM Garibashvili’s instruction not to proceed with the signing of the memorandum.

Alasania says that the signing of the memorandum was agreed in advance with the PM and the entire government and the most likely explanation to this last-minute instruction from the PM was perhaps an order from “informal ruler”, referring to ex-PM Bidzina Ivanishvili. Alasania said that Janelidze, who was “personally supportive” to this deal when it was discussed at the security and crisis management council, was only a “messenger” and the decision was in fact made by Ivanishvili. He also suggested that Russia’s opposition against Georgia to obtain defensive capabilities was possibly a factor behind blocking the deal.

The ex-defense minister says that he refused “to obey that wrong, illegal instruction”.

“It was not only insulting for me, but also a signal that we were losing this opportunity that was opened up for Georgia after many years of embargo,” Alasania said.

Next morning, on October 28, just before the signing of the memorandum, Alasania says, he learned about the arrest of MoD and general staff officials. He claims that with those arrests the government tried to exert pressure on him, but it failed to dissuade him from signing the memorandum.

He said that because he cannot discuss publicly all the details of the matter, lawmakers from his Free Democrats party will request the Parliament to set up an ad hoc commission with access to classified information to study all the circumstances of the issue.

“[The commission] has to study how this memorandum was signed and what our country has lost by not signing a final agreement,” Alasania said.

He also said that he is now “convinced” that no final agreement to purchase air defense system will be possible under the current government.

Defense Minister’s Response

In interviews with the Georgian public broadcaster and Maestro TV late on April 3, Defense Minister, Mindia Janelidze, dismissed his predecessor’s allegations as “absurd” and “irresponsible.”

“It is very regrettable that it turned into an issue of political speculation,” the Defense Minister said.

According to Janelidze, “consultations” on acquisition of air defense system, which he says is “one of the priorities”, are ongoing with the French side.

He said that it was one of the topics of discussion when he met his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian in Paris in late March.

“These consultations are continuing successfully and therefore results, I think, will be successful,” the Defense Minister said. “But at the same time I want to stress that our partners are expressing concern that this process is accompanied by lots of rumors and speculation, which has already damaged to some extent our interests, and those persons, who still continue speculation on this issue, bear responsibility.”

He confirmed that he had a phone conversation with Alasania in late October when the latter was in Paris.

Contrary to Alasania’s claims, Janelidze says that then defense minister was not authorized to sign the non-binding memorandum as he had no final approval from the government.

Janelidze says that he told Alasania to “delay” the signing pending final approval from the government. He denied asking Alasania to cancel the signing.

“I phoned him in order to delay for some time signing of this memorandum in order to make it in line with set procedures. Now they try to portray this phone conversation as if we are against of doing good deeds for the country – this is irresponsible and absurd allegation. We all are doing everything possible to increase Georgia’s defense capabilities, but everything has its rules and procedures, which have to be observed,” Janelidze said.

“He [Alasania] was instructed to make some corrections in the proposal, but he did not do that. By observance of procedures I mean that he should have agreed the final proposal with the government prior to signing the memorandum,” Janelidze said without going into details citing that the issue is classified as secret.

In his TV interviews, Janelidze also said that efforts aimed at purchasing air defense systems started under the previous government and “entered into its decisive phase” under the present government.

“Currently these consultations are filled with more substance and concrete issues,” he said.

“So we are making progress. Nothing has been thwarted so I call on everyone to refrain from pointless and irresponsible allegations,” Janelidze said.

Few hours after Alasania’s press conference, the Georgian Ministry of Defense reported about a meeting between Janelidze and French ambassador in Tbilisi Renaud Salins.

In a video recording, released by the Georgian MoD after the meeting, the French ambassador says: “Some discussions started last year between the government of Georgia and some French industrialists in the normal framework of our defense cooperation. I insist on the term ‘discussion’ because nothing committing was signed by the Georgian side – no agreement, no treaty, no commitment whatsoever. The only thing I can say now is that those discussions, which started last year, are continuing.”

A memorandum of understanding in general does not necessarily carry any legally binding commitment for either side.

PM Irakli Garibashvili also commented briefly on the controversy when he told journalists on April 3 that Alasania’s allegations were “irresponsible.”

“This is a lie and I regret that speculation is ongoing over issues of state importance,” Garibashvili said.

The post Accusations Fly In Georgia’s Potential French Arms Deal appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Cemre Nur Öztürk

Greek Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis visited Moscow on March 29-30, 2015, during which he held several rounds of talks with his Russian counterpart Alexandar Novak and Gazprom’s CEO Alexei Miller. Prime Minister of Greece Alexis Tsipras is also expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on April 8.

Furthermore, Tsipras will be in Moscow on May 9 to attend the celebration of the allied victory in World War II, while many European leaders have decided to skip the ceremony because of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. EU Commission Spokeswoman Mina Adreeva said about the array of visits: “Freedom of speech and assembly exist, so we have no comment on Greek politicians’ visits to Russia.”

The energy aspect of Greece-Russia negotiations

Lafazanis told Sputnik following his visit to Moscow: “My meetings, especially those with Miller and Russian energy minister Novak, were very substantive, extremely constructive, and, I should say, they opened a new chapter in the energy partnership between the two countries.”

Russia provides Greece with around 65% of its natural gas and the latter may ask for a discount on the resource. Greek state-owned gas utility DEPA has already obtained a retroactive 15% cut in gas prices last year.

Lafazanis also declared Greece’s support for Turkish Stream, the 63 bcm gas pipeline that Russia is planning to build under the surface of Black Sea en route to Turkey as a replacement for South Stream. He expressed Greece’s keen interest in extending Turkish Stream from the Greek-Turkish border into Greek territory.

The Tsipras government and EU sanctions against Russia

Tsipras told Russian news agency TASS on Tuesday that Greece does not back the West’s sanctions against Russia as they represent a “road to nowhere.” He expressed that Greece’s position on the extension of sanctions until the end of year is not given, as he informed the European Council President and EU Foreign Policy Chief of the necessity of the EU to acquire Greece’s consent before acting on such plans. The formal decision of the EU on the extension will be made in June.

In response to Tsipras’ remarks, Deputy Chief Spokesperson of the European Commission Mina Andreeva pointed out that the Greek PM supported the sanctions during the EU summit two weeks ago. The EU envisages that the sanctions will remain in force until the Minsk Agreement for peace in Ukraine has been carried into effect.

Tsipras also stated to TASS: “We can have a substantial cooperation that will allow Greece to export its agricultural goods to the Russian Federation.” According to the Guardian, Russian officials said they are seeking ways to exempt Greece and Hungary from the sweeping food import ban it imposed on all EU countries as a retaliatory measure to the EU sanctions against Russia.

The meaning of the Greece-Russia overture

Greece is faced with having to repay its 450 million euro debt to the International Monetary Fund by April 9, 2015. If it defaults on the loan, it may cause the country to enter bankruptcy and exit from the Eurozone banking system.

In an attempt to acquire much-needed financial aid as it faces the prospect of running out of cash, Greece proposed a new economic program on Wednesday in the form of a 26-page list of reforms. The EU and IMF rejected this reform proposal as insufficient. The EU and IMF demand the implementation of reforms agreed upon by the previous Greek government if they are to provide renewed loans. Alternately, the Tsipras government needs to convince its creditors that its economic program can meet their requirements. Particular boundaries to the establishment of an agreement between Greece’s new left-wing government and the EU are disagreements between the two on privatization, and reform of the pension system and labor market.

Nikos Voutzis, the interior minister of Greece, told Spiegel magazine: “If no money is flowing on April 9, we will first determine the salaries and pensions paid here in Greece and then ask our partners abroad to achieve consensus that we will not pay €450 million to the IMF on time.” This affirmation means that Greece would prefer to pay the salaries and pensions of its citizens rather than to repay its IMF debt if it is not be funded until April 9.

The overture between Russia and Greece is regarded as being driven by the Tsipras government’s expectation of economic benefits from Russia, whether they be a discount on the prices of gas or a removal of the food import ban. Furthermore, by way of playing on Putin’s goal to divide the EU on sanctions, Greece’s support for Turkish Stream represents another way in which the country attempting to widen its room for maneuver. However, Russia’s economic support of Greece is expected to be very limited considering the former’s ailing economy under the sanctions. The Tsipras government may use its relations with Russia as leverage in convincing the EU and IMF to continue offering their economic support to the country.

The post Overture Between Greece And Russia – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Islamic State has posted a video online purportedly showing militants destroying a major world heritage site in Iraq’s ancient city of Hatra.

The footage posted online late Friday shows the ISIL members smashing the walls and shooting with assault rifles at invaluable statues at an archaeological site in the city of Hatra in Iraq’s Nineveh Province.

The video, published on a website frequently used by ISIL, shows the militants using sledgehammers and pickaxes to reduce ancient statutes to crumbles. Other militants use Kalashnikov rifles to shoot at the priceless objects at the archaeological site, which is recognized as a World Heritage by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

The site was attacked last month by ISIL militants, according to residents and local officials. No clear estimate has been made on the extent of damage on the historic place as the city is located in the territory which is under the control of ISIL.

Parts of the video are dedicated to statements in Arabic by ISIL members who apparently say they destroyed the site because people worshiped it instead of God. The group has always tried to use religion as a cover for its murderous, inhuman activities in Iraq and Syria, where it has killed thousands of civilians and security forces over the past four years.

ISIL has already destroyed other notable sites in the territory north of Iraq. Back in March, ISIL bulldozed the 3,000-year-old city of Nimrud, one of the world’s most important historical sites. The destruction triggered worldwide condemnation, with the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon calling it a “war crime.”

Another video in late February showed ISIL destroying the ancient artifacts at a major museum in the northern city of Mosul, the capital of Nineveh and one of the group’s major strongholds in Iraq. ISIL also burned hundreds of priceless books and manuscripts in Mosul Library and Mosul University in January.

Mosul and the surrounding areas were once occupied by the ancient Mesopotamians, who established a great civilization in the lands between Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The artifacts in the Nineveh museum, which were mostly from the archaeological site in Hatra, were supposed to have great cultural and historic significance.

ISIL has already razed to the ground a number of mosques in Syria and Iraq, many of them belonging to the early years of the Islamic civilization. They have also destroyed tombs belonging to revered Shia and Sunni figures.

Original article

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A new statistical analysis suggests that, in the short term, the Mexican government’s war against drugs increased the average murder rate in regions subjected to military-style interventions.

The study–“Did the Military Interventions in the Mexican Drug War Increase Violence?”–was conducted by Valeria Espinosa, a quantitative analyst at Google and a 2014 doctoral graduate of Harvard University’s statistics department, and Donald B. Rubin, Harvard University John L. Loeb Professor of Statistics.

The paper is published on the website of The American Statistician, a journal of the American Statistical Association (ASA). The ASA is the nation’s oldest and largest organization of professional statisticians.

The Mexican government–beginning in December 2006 during former President Felipe Calderón’s term and continuing through current President Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration–has been fighting an internal war against drug traffickers. A 2013 report by Human Rights Watch estimates 60,000 people were killed between 2006 and 2012 as a result of the military interventions and drug cartels fighting each other for control of territory.

To determine the drug war’s effect on the homicide rate in the affected areas, the study compares the homicide rate in the first year after the military intervention in each affected region to the expected homicide rate for that same year had there not been an intervention.

Espinosa and Rubin conducted statistical analyses of 18 regions affected by military interventions. Those regions–designated by the name of their major city–are Tijuana, Nogales, Madera, Juárez, Pánuco, Reynosa, Bustamante, Guadalupe, Villa de Cos, Teúl, Rincón de Romos, Sinaloa, Tepic, La Piedad, Celaya, Apatzingán, Coahuyana and Acapulco.

Espinosa and Rubin used public data compiled by three well-respected sources in Mexico for their analysis:

• National Institute of Statistics and Geography, the country’s national statistical agency
• Center of Research for Development, a nonprofit think tank that conducts research and proposes policy options for Mexico’s economic and democratic development
• Official website of Mexican President Felipe Calderón (2006-2012)–NOTE: This data, no longer publicly available, was publicly accessible until the end of Calderón’s term in December 2012

The duo analyzed the data to determine whether military interventions in the country’s regions increased the homicide rates beyond what the expected homicide rate would have been without the interventions. For the purposes of the study, an intervention is defined as a confrontation between government forces and organized crime that resulted in three or more civilian deaths; in addition to its normal definition, civilians also could refer to drug cartel members.

Because the Mexican military operations were directed at municipalities rather than entire states, the authors defined regions of analysis to be a municipality that received the intervention as well as its neighboring municipalities.

This study is more statistically rigorous than two previous articles about drug war death rates published in Nexos, a leading cultural and political magazine in Mexico. Those articles, authored by Fernando Escalante Gonzalbo and José Merino, were published in January and June 2011, respectively. Escalante relied on visual comparisons, while Merino used a less rigorous causal analysis to estimate the effect of the interventions.

When policymakers are faced with critical decisions, it is important they are basing their decisions on causal effects, not associations, said Espinosa. The statistical methodology used in this study will enable policymakers to compare intervened regions with other similar regions, not simply the past or national averages. Unfortunately, many studies that claim to measure causation forget the fundamental step of explicitly showing that their units are comparable–in our case, that the regions are actually similar. Our paper emphasizes the importance of such balance checks, explained Espinosa.

Study findings suggest military interventions resulted in an average increase of nearly 11 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants across the 18 affected regions studied. However, the estimated effects vary considerably across these regions.

“The results of our study suggest that military interventions in the Mexican drug war increased homicide rates in the short term, especially in the Juárez region,” said Espinosa. “While the effect on short-term homicide rates is only one factor Mexican policymakers must account for when deciding whether and where to send troops, measuring the effect accurately should increase their ability to find the optimal tradeoff between short-term violence and long-term objectives.”

Of the 18 affected regions, only Rincón de Romos and Apatzingán experienced a significant reduction in the homicide rate relative to what would have been expected without the military intervention.

Conversely, the Juárez region experienced an increase in its homicide rate that is estimated to be more than twice as large as that of any other region in the study. This finding should not be surprising. Since the 1990s, Ciudad Juárez has been notorious for displays of violence, such as more than 1,000 unsolved murders of young women between 1993 and 2003, and for being a major center of narcotics trafficking linked to the Juárez Cartel.

Removing the Juárez region, the analysis still yields a significant increase in the homicide rate. Specifically, the estimated regional average intervention effects with and without Juárez are 11.0 and 6.5, respectively.

The post Statistical Analysis Reveals Mexican Drug War Increased Homicide Rates appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Imagine you need to have an almost exact copy of an object. Now imagine that you can just pull your smartphone out of your pocket, take a snapshot with its integrated 3-D imager, send it to your 3-D printer, and within minutes you have reproduced a replica accurate to within microns of the original object. This feat may soon be possible because of a tiny new, tiny high-resolution 3-D imager developed at Caltech.

Any time you want to make an exact copy of an object with a 3-D printer, the first step is to produce a high-resolution scan of the object with a 3-D camera that measures its height, width, and depth. Such 3-D imaging has been around for decades, but the most sensitive systems generally are too large and expensive to be used in consumer applications.

A cheap, compact yet highly accurate new device known as a nanophotonic coherent imager (NCI) promises to change that. Using an inexpensive silicon chip less than a millimeter square in size, the NCI provides the highest depth-measurement accuracy of any such nanophotonic 3-D imaging device.

The work, done in the laboratory of Ali Hajimiri, the Thomas G. Myers Professor of Electrical Engineering in the Division of Engineering and Applied Science, is described in the February 2015 issue of Optics Express.

In a regular camera, each pixel represents the intensity of the light received from a specific point in the image, which could be near or far from the camera–meaning that the pixels provide no information about the relative distance of the object from the camera. In contrast, each pixel in an image created by the Caltech team’s NCI provides both the distance and intensity information.

“Each pixel on the chip is an independent interferometer–an instrument that uses the interference of light waves to make precise measurements–which detects the phase and frequency of the signal in addition to the intensity,” said Hajimiri.

The new chip utilizes an established detection and ranging technology called LIDAR, in which a target object is illuminated with scanning laser beams. The light that reflects off of the object is then analyzed based on the wavelength of the laser light used, and the LIDAR can gather information about the object’s size and its distance from the laser to create an image of its surroundings.

“By having an array of tiny LIDARs on our coherent imager, we can simultaneously image different parts of an object or a scene without the need for any mechanical movements within the imager,” Hajimiri said.

Such high-resolution images and information provided by the NCI are made possible because of an optical concept known as coherence. If two light waves are coherent, the waves have the same frequency, and the peaks and troughs of light waves are exactly aligned with one another. In the NCI, the object is illuminated with this coherent light. The light that is reflected off of the object is then picked up by on-chip detectors, called grating couplers, that serve as “pixels,” as the light detected from each coupler represents one pixel on the 3-D image. On the NCI chip, the phase, frequency, and intensity of the reflected light from different points on the object is detected and used to determine the exact distance of the target point.

Because the coherent light has a consistent frequency and wavelength, it is used as a reference with which to measure the differences in the reflected light. In this way, the NCI uses the coherent light as sort of a very precise ruler to measure the size of the object and the distance of each point on the object from the camera. The light is then converted into an electrical signal that contains intensity and distance information for each pixel–all of the information needed to create a 3-D image.

The incorporation of coherent light not only allows 3-D imaging with the highest level of depth-measurement accuracy ever achieved in silicon photonics, it also makes it possible for the device to fit in a very small size.

“By coupling, confining, and processing the reflected light in small pipes on a silicon chip, we were able to scale each LIDAR element down to just a couple of hundred microns in size–small enough that we can form an array of 16 of these coherent detectors on an active area of 300 microns by 300 microns,” Hajimiri said.

The first proof of concept of the NCI has only 16 coherent pixels, meaning that the 3-D images it produces can only be 16 pixels at any given instance. However, the researchers also developed a method for imaging larger objects by first imaging a four-pixel-by-four-pixel section, then moving the object in four-pixel increments to image the next section. With this method, the team used the device to scan and create a 3-D image of the “hills and valleys” on the front face of a U.S. penny–with micron-level resolution–from half a meter away.

In the future, Hajimiri says, that the current array of 16 pixels could also be easily scaled up to hundreds of thousands. One day, by creating such vast arrays of these tiny LIDARs, the imager could be applied to a broad range of applications from very precise 3-D scanning and printing to helping driverless cars avoid collisions to improving motion sensitivity in superfine human machine interfaces, where the slightest movements of a patient’s eyes and the most minute changes in a patient’s heartbeat can be detected on the fly.

“The small size and high quality of this new chip-based imager will result in significant cost reductions, which will enable thousands new of uses for such systems by incorporating them into personal devices such as smartphones,” he said.

The post Camera Chip Provides Superfine 3-D Resolution appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A better method for predicting the number of hurricanes in an upcoming season has been developed by a team of University of Arizona atmospheric scientists.

The UA team’s new model improves the accuracy of seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico by 23 percent. The team’s research paper was published online in the journal Weather and Forecasting on March 25.

“Our model is better at predicting the number of seasonal hurricanes in the Atlantic than the other existing models,” said first author Kyle Davis, a master’s student in the UA atmospheric sciences department. “On average, our model has 23 percent less error for predicting hurricanes occurring since 2001.”

Hurricanes are storms with maximum wind speeds in excess of 73 mph and are among the most damaging natural disasters in the U.S. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The UA model can provide its forecast by the start of hurricane season, which allows people to prepare better for the upcoming season, Davis said. “Tens of millions of people are threatened by Atlantic hurricanes. It affects their properties, it affects their lives.”

The team developed the new model by using data from the 1950 to 2013 hurricane seasons. They tested the new model by seeing if it could “hindcast” the number of hurricanes that occurred each season from 1900 to 1949.

“It performed really well in the period from 1949 to 1900,” Davis said. “That’s the most convincing test of our model.”

Other investigators have estimated that damages from U.S. hurricanes from 1970 to 2002 cost $57 billion in 2015 dollars – more than earthquakes and human-caused disasters combined for the time period.

Better seasonal predictions can help cities and governments in emergency management planning, said co-author Xubin Zeng, who holds the Agnese N. Haury Chair in Environment and is a UA professor of atmospheric sciences.

The paper, “A new statistical model to predict seasonal North Atlantic hurricane activity,” by Davis, Zeng and Elizabeth A. Ritchie, a UA atmospheric sciences professor, is scheduled for print publication in a future issue of the journal of Weather and Forecasting. Science Foundation Arizona, the National Science Foundation and NASA funded the research.

Good forecasts of hurricane seasons have been around only since the early 1980s, Zeng said. The historical average in the 20th century was six hurricanes per year.

Until about the late 1990s, the existing models did a good job of predicting how many hurricanes would occur each year. However, in the 21st century the number of hurricanes per season became more variable, with 15 occurring in 2005 but only two in 2013.

Zeng wondered why the computer models didn’t work well anymore, and his new graduate student Davis, an actuary, wanted to study natural disasters because of their impact.

“Xubin steered me into hurricane forecasting,” Davis said.

Zeng challenged Davis to develop a hurricane forecasting model that surpassed the existing ones.

“It was a tremendous effort – trying endless combinations of things, new creative ways of doing things,” Davis said.

The other forecasting models relied heavily on the state of the El Niño climate cycle, a three-to-seven-year cycle that affects weather all over the globe.

One of the UA team’s innovations was using the state of a longer-term climate cycle called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to judge how much influence El Niño has in a particular year.

The AMO affects ocean temperatures, cycling from colder to warmer and back over a time scale of approximately 40-70 years. The AMO was in a warm phase from the late 1920s to the early 1960s and started cycling back toward warm in the late 1990s. Warmer sea surface temperatures generally generate more hurricanes.

Zeng suggested also including the force of the wind on the ocean – an innovation that, to the best of the team’s knowledge, no other statistical model used. Strong winds reduce sea surface temperatures because they mix the ocean layers, thereby bringing cooler, deeper water to the surface.

After much trial and error, Davis met Zeng’s challenge. The model Davis developed does a better job of forecasting the Atlantic hurricane season by incorporating the force of the wind on the ocean and the sea surface temperature over the Atlantic. The model includes the effect of El Niño only for years when the AMO is in the cool phase.

Compared with the other models, the UA model de-emphasized the role of El Niño when the AMO is in the warm phase, as it has been for the past 15 years.

Next the team plans to examine the forecasting models for the eastern Pacific hurricanes — the ones that hit Baja California and the western coast of Mexico and Central America.

The post Better Method For Forecasting Hurricane Season appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Thai military authorities should immediately confirm the location of 17 student activists who were arbitrarily arrested on April 2, 2015, in Thailand’s southern Narathiwat province, Human Rights Watch said Saturday. The activists should be freed unless they have been charged by a judge with a credible offense.

Soldiers conducted a warrantless search at about 5 a.m. on April 2 at four student dormitories in Muang district of Narathiwat province. They forced at least 17 activists from the network of ethnic Malay Muslim students at Princess of Narathiwat University to give DNA samples and then took them into military custody. Human Rights Watch has learned that the activists are being detained without charge in Pileng, Buket Tanyong, and Chulabhorn Camps in Narathiwat province. The military authorities have provided no explanation for the students’ detention or said when they would be released.

“Arbitrary arrests, secret detention, and unaccountable officials are a recipe for human rights abuses,” said Brad Adams, Asia director. “The use of martial law to detain student activists shows how out of control the Thai military authorities have become.”

The detained activists include Aseng Kilimo, Bahakim Jehmae, Tuanahamad Majeh, Muruwan Blabueteng, Asri Saroheng, Ibroheng Abdi, Sufiyan Doramae, Ismael Jehso, Abdulloh Madeng, Sagariya Samae, Usman Oyu, Saidi Doloh, Tarsimi Madaka, Rosari Yako, Ahmad Yusoh, Albari Aba, and Ridul Sulong.

Human Rights Watch has repeatedly raised serious concerns regarding the use of arbitrary arrest and secret military detention in Thailand’s southern border provinces. Order 3/2558, issued in accordance with section 44 of the interim constitution, provides the military authorities with broad powers and legal immunity to detain people incommunicado without charge in informal places of detention, such as military camps, for seven days. It does not ensure either effective judicial oversight or prompt access to legal counsel and family members.

The risk of enforced disappearances, torture, and other ill-treatment significantly increases when detainees are held incommunicado in unofficial locations and under the control of the military, which lacks training and experience in civilian law enforcement. Those who committed crimes should be properly charged, but all should be treated according to international human rights standards and due process of law.

The cycle of human rights abuses and impunity contributes to an atmosphere in which Thai security personnel show little regard for human rights and separatist insurgents have committed numerous atrocities. Since January 2004, Thailand’s southern border provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat have been the scene of a brutal internal armed conflict that has claimed more than 6,000 lives. Civilians have accounted for approximately 90 percent of those deaths. To date, not a single member of the Thai security forces has been criminally prosecuted for serious rights abuses in the south. Meanwhile, the Pejuang Kemerdekaan Patani insurgents in the loose network of BRN-Coordinate (National Revolution Front-Coordinate) regularly attack both government officials and civilians.

“Violent insurgency is no excuse for the Thai military to resort to summary and abusive measures against the Malay Muslim population,” Adams said. “It’s very worrying that soldiers continue to arrest and detain anyone they want.”

The post Thailand: Army Secretly Detaining 17 Muslim Activists, Says HRW appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Arka Biswas*

Iran and P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Germany), also referred to as EU3+3, have agreed on parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Lausanne, Switzerland on April 2, 2015. This was announced in a joint statement issued by the EU High Representative, Federica Mogherini, and the Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif. While the negotiators have only agreed upon the parameters for the JCPOA and the “implementation details” are yet to be worked out, this nevertheless is a significant step. Considering that most of the obstacles to the deal, which have been addressed in the joint statement, were primarily about the political differences between the two sides, it will be important to examine what the agreed parameters and the concessions made by each side are.

On the number of centrifuges, the negotiators have agreed to restrict the number of installed Iranian centrifuges to 6,104, of which 5,060 will be operational. These centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation centrifuges, and Iran has agreed to not install and operate its IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6 and IR-8 models. Iran will also remove the 1,000 IR-2M centrifuges installed at Natanz and will place them under IAEA monitoring for 10 years. On this, both sides seem to have made significant concession. For instance, through the course of the negotiations, the US called for restricting the numbers within the range of a few hundreds and less than 4,500. On the other hand, Iranian negotiators wanted to retain all of its 19,000 installed centrifuges, while Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for building 190,000 centrifuges in July 2014.

Another critical issue which the negotiators have resolved is that of the stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU) that Iran will be allowed to retain. Iran has agreed to bring down its stock of 10,000 kg of LEU to only 300 kg and will keep it enriched at 3.67 percent. This is a significant compromise made by Iran, considering that only a week ago Iran’s deputy foreign minister ruled out the possibility of an agreement that would involve “giving up a stockpile that Iran has spent years and billions of dollars to amass.” As argued by the negotiating parties in the joint statement, the limits to the number of operational centrifuges and stockpiles of LEU will bring the breakout time from the current levels of 2-3 months to “at least one year.”

Meanwhile, Iran and P5+1 have affirmed their agreement to redesign the heavy water reactor at Arak. The statement has gone ahead to further name the Arak reactor as a “heavy water research reactor”, indicating that it will be run purely for research purposes. The original core of the reactor, which could produce significant amount of weapons-grade plutonium in its spent fuel, will be destroyed or removed permanently. The negotiators have confirmed that the new design will not produce weapons grade plutonium and Iran has reaffirmed its commitment to not conduct reprocessing or related research and development – blocking another path for Iran to the bomb.

Iran has furthermore addressed the concerns over its enrichment facility at Fordow by agreeing not to enrich uranium at the facility for at least 15 years. The facility in effect will be used for research purposes, that too barring research on enrichment. Fordow enrichment facility was of particular concern to the P5+1 given that it is underground, heavily fortified and can evade air-strikes.

A crucial challenge to the negotiation was that of the period for which a comprehensive deal, once agreed upon, would remain in force. Throughout the negotiations, P5+1 were calling for the comprehensive deal to remain in force for at least 10-15 years. Iran, on the other hand, was planning to agree to comply by a deal for only a few years. Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council, had explained the Iranian position by emphasising on “the mistrust that exists between the two sides” and on “the legitimate uncertainty that exists about the intentions and orientations of future leaders in Washington and Tehran.” The agreed framework captures a deal which would remain in force for at least 15 years. For instance, Iran has committed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 per cent, to keep its stockpile of LEU to 300 kg, to not build new facilities for the purpose of uranium enrichment, to not use Fordow facility for enrichment, to not build any additional heavy water reactors, and to allow important inspection and transparency measures for at least the next 15 years. While the framework allows Iran to conduct enrichment R&D after 10 years, Iran will only follow a plan for the same which has been submitted to the IAEA.

Finally, P5+1 have agreed to give sanctions relief to Iran, if the latter abides by its commitments made under this framework. This relief will include both economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU, as well as nuclear related sanctions imposed by the US, EU and the UN Security Council. The nuclear related sanctions imposed by the US, EU and the UNSC will be suspended or lifted simultaneously as soon as IAEA confirms that Iran has completed all of its nuclear-related steps. However, the nuclear-related sanctions imposed by the US and EU will be back in force, if Iran is found to not adhere to the JCPOA. Details on the suspension of the economic sanctions, however, have not yet been disclosed and it will remain subject to further negotiations before the June 30 deadline for the JCPOA. UNSC resolution on restricting transfer of sensitive technologies will continue and will be incorporated into another UNSCR that would call for the adherence to JCOPA by Iran.

The agreed framework or the parameters for the JCPOA have addressed broad range of issues on which there were political disagreements. Both sides have made significant concessions from their original positions on these issues. Both on uranium enrichment and plutonium production, Iran has agreed to parameters that restrict the possible ways through which it could have acquired a bomb and take the breakout time from current estimates of 2-3 months to at least one year. Barack Obama has stated that the framework will establish a “robust and intrusive inspections and transparency regime” of unprecedented level and that will be critical in bridging the mistrust between the negotiating parties, as well as ensuring that Iran’s nuclear programme remains peaceful.

It must, however, be noted that these are just the parameters, agreed upon by the negotiators, for the JCPOA. More negotiations are required before the final text of the JCPOA is released. At the same time, there seems to be confusion over what the agreed parameters are. Javad Zarif tweeted that “there is no need to spin using “fact sheets” so early on.” But that seem to reflect the concerns that Zarif may have regarding acceptance of the agreed parameters domestically in Iran.

*The writer is a Junior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

The post Iran Nuclear Deal: A Significant Step – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Rana Banerji*

Not since Pakistan’s former Interior Minister, late Nasrullah Khan Babar’s, crackdown in mid-1995, has the Mohajir/ Muttahida Quami Movement – Altaf (MQM- A) been subjected to such a relentless siege by the Pakistan Rangers and the Sindh Police in Karachi. On March 11, 90, Azizabad, or `Nine Zero’, the home of Altaf Hussain in Federal B Area, the sanctified MQM headquarters, was raided by Pakistan Rangers. Several MQM-A party workers were arrested, arms and ammunition allegedly stolen from NATO containers seized, and five criminals wanted in the January 2011 murder of journalist Wali Khan Babbar were apprehended. The current operations in Karachi have been ongoing since August 2014.

The effort of the law and order authorities, assisted by the para-military Pakistan Rangers, has been to attempt to cleanse the greater metropolitan area of Karachi from the endemic violence, a peculiar mix of drug mafia-related crimes, extortions, kidnappings, sectarian reprisals and even `gang-warfare’, which has plagued the city for the past two decades, causing a systematic outward flow of business capital and investments from what used to be the economic hub of Pakistan.

This has also gotten entangled with the `war on terror’, as a lot of besieged Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) cadres escaping the army dragnet in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have been seeking safe havens in mosques and new Pashtun settlements in Karachi’s outlying suburbs.

Recent exposures about involvements in criminal activities revealed in the confessions of Sualat Mirza who faces death penalty for killing Karachi Electric Supply official, Shahid Hamid in May, 1999, and extortion of the worst kind brought out in the Pakistan Rangers report on the September 2012 Baldia Factory fire, have badly damaged the image of the party.

The MQM-A’s dilemma has been particularly acute, as the ebb in its fortunes coincides embarrassingly with the fall from grace of its leader in exile, `Quaid-e-Qiwan’ Altaf Hussain, in London. Altaf came to the adverse notice of the Metropolitan Police on two accounts: first on suspicion of involvement in the 2010 killing of the MQM-A’s second in command, Imran Farooq, outside his East London home. Altaf’s nephew, Iftikhar was detained by the authorities in June 2013 but was released shortly. Two other suspects, Mohsin Ali Syed and Mohammed Kashif Khan Kamran, fled to Pakistan and are now believed to be in the Inter-Services Intelligence’s (ISI) custody.

The second reason for Altaf Hussain’s predicament was the discovery of large amounts of unaccounted-for cash in his Edgware house in North London,fuelling suspicions of money laundering. Altaf was detained for questioning but has not been arrested so far even as investigations continue.

Although former Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf’s 2009 National Reconciliation Ordinance dropped 72 criminal cases against Altaf Hussain, the Pakistan army is unlikely to have forgotten the June 1991 incident where servig army officer Major Kaleem was tortured to death while in MQM custody. In particular, Lt Gen Rizwan Akhtar, currently Director General, ISI, and erstwhile DG, Pakistan Rangers, Sindh, appears convinced that this is the way to go if Karachi has to rise from its perpetual condition of `ordered disorder’, (phrase used by Laurent Gayer in his 2014 book, ‘Karachi’).

The current crackdown on MQM’s violence-prone cadres was started by current DG, ISI, Lt Gen Rizwan Akhtar, in his previous incarnation, as DG Pakistan Rangers, Sindh. The Pak Rangers, under its new DG, Maj Gen Bilal Akbar and V Corps Commander, Lt Gen Naved Zaman, formerly DDG, Counter Terrorism, ISI, continue to work on the script crafted by Akhtar and endorsed by incumbent Army Chief, Raheel Sharif. This is evident also from the recent gallantry award citation of `Hilal-e-Shujaat’, bestowed on Akhtar, which mentions his role as DG, Pak Rangers, in the recent Karachi operations.

The party’s second-string leadership in Karachi has begun to squirm and squeal. They organised protest demonstrations outside Nine Zero even as the Pak Rangers’s 11 March raid was underway. This forced the Pakistan Rangers to file a case against Altaf Hussain and his party, under the Anti-Terrorism Act, for criminal intimidation.
When Pakistan’s incumbent Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited Karachi few days later, their request for an audience went unheeded. A delegation led by Farooq Sattar, including Haider Abbas Rizvi, Faisal Sabzwari and Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, was later able to meet him in Islamabad. They complained against the police/Rangers’ high-handedness in repressing their cadres’ legitimate political activities.

Though the party has dominated the Karachi political scene since 1988, in recent months, a perception has grown that the MQM-A is losing ground, even politically. In the May 2013 elections, though it was able to win 17 out of 20 Karachi seats in the National Assembly and 34 of 42 Provincial Assembly seats from Sindh, its vote share declined by 4 % as Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) was able to make a sizable dent.

The PTI has replaced the Awami National Party (ANP) as the bigger party in Pashtun dominated-new settlements in the SITE Industrial area and Sohrab Goth. It has complained, alleging involvement of MQM hit men after its popular politician, Zahra Shahid Hussain, was killed in May 2013. PTI chief Imran Khan harbours a visceral dislike of Altaf Hussain, a sentiment heartily reciprocated by MQM leaders. In fact PTI and MQM-A workers clashed in Karachi as recent as 30 March.

The army-backed crackdown has fuelled speculation about a possible change in MQM-A leadership. Names of Mustafa Kamal, former Nazim, who did a lot to improve the city’s infrastructure but had to go into exile in Dubai after having crossed the leaders, and Dr IshratulIbad, MQM’s durable and longest-serving Sindh Governor (since 2002) have been mentioned. There is even some talk of Musharraf emerging again in a political role to inherit his `natural’ Mohajir mantle, though this may not be quite palatable just yet, either to Sharif or to the army leadership, whose main concern is limited to see that he is absolved from State sedition charges.

At present, it appears that the purpose of the army/ ISI/ Pakistan Rangers operation is not to totally demolish the party but to significantly curb its criminal mafias and de-fang capacity to hold the State and Provincial Administration to ransom, so that Karachi can slowly limp back to a tolerable state of `ordered disorder’ again.

*Rana Banerji
Member, Executive Committee, IPCS

The post Pakistan: MQM Under Siege – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Cindy Hurst

A nation’s success in military operations often rises and falls on the basis of how well it communicates. When a nation does not secure its communications effectively, its enemies intercept and read its communications and win thereby military and diplomatic advantages.1

Vice Admiral Noel Gayler, former director of the National Security Agency, once wrote, “Important as it is in peacetime, communications security becomes even more important in wartime.”2 For a few decades, nations have been relying on encryption systems to protect a wide variety of computerized transmissions ranging from commerce to government to military communications. While today’s encryption systems are considered reasonably secure, the possibilities of quantum cryptography and quantum computing offer a whole new dimension and threat to computerized secrecy.

China is among a growing number of countries seeking to unlock the science of quantum cryptography and computing, which many experts believe will one day revolutionize computerized security. With China’s ongoing push to modernize its military and advancing to become a global innovative force, success in this area could materialize into an enormous economic and military advantage.

This article examines the significance of these technologies, China’s progress in quantum communication and quantum computing, and the consequences for the United States and other nations should the Middle Kingdom acquire a real capability in this science. It is an area that U.S. analysts will need to follow closely in the coming months and years.

China’s Leap

The world is currently in the midst of a second quantum revolution.3 The first quantum revolution began in 1900 when the new rules governing physical science were discovered. Today, in the second quantum revolution, these rules are being used to develop new revolutionary technologies. Two such possible technologies are quantum computing and quantum cryptography, the latter falling within the area of quantum communications. While they each rely on the properties of quantum physics, their end goals differ. Theoretically, a quantum computer would be able to break current encryption systems, but quantum cryptography is arguably unbreakable even by a quantum computer.

The Quantum Computer: Code Breaker or Problem Solver?The idea of creating a quantum computer has been around since the 1970s. These computers would be extremely powerful since they can harness quantum properties. Unlike an ordinary computer, which uses binary numbers (1s or 0s) to represent data, a quantum computer would use quantum bits (qubits), which can simultaneously have the value of 0, 1, or any “superposition” of the two.4 The quantum phenomenon becomes even more bizarre when considering the concept of “entanglement.” Entanglement links the properties of two or more qubits together. These qubits, even when separated, remain strongly correlated or interconnected in a manner much stronger than any classical relationship. This is what famed physicist Albert Einstein called “spooky action at a distance.” A quantum computer using entangled qubits would therefore be vastly faster than the average computer, which uses simple binary numbers. Theoretically, once a quantum computer comes online, it would be able to break current encryption systems such as Rivest, Shamir, and Adleman (RSA), a commonly used computer encryption and authentication system that uses a complex algorithm developed in 1977 by Ron Rivest, Adi Shamir, and Leonard Adleman. These encryption systems are needed to protect information such as financial transactions as well as military and government communications.

In 2001, Guo Guangcan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, established the Key Laboratory of Quantum Information at the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei. The laboratory became “the most important research center of quantum information in the country.”5 In January 2006, while the field of quantum technology was still considered in its infancy in China, Guo predicted that the first quantum computer would likely be developed in the next 15 to 20 years.6 In 2007, Dr. Pan Jianwei, director of the Division of Quantum Physics and Quantum Information at Hefei’s National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at the Microscale, USTC, optimistically predicted that the country might be the first to develop a quantum computer.7 More recently, however, Pan seems to have shifted his focus. A 2010 article quoted him as saying that quantum communication is “more important for China because it is already closer to application” than developing a quantum computer, although the latter is still “very attractive to me.”8 If Pan really did shift his focus, it could be that the reality of the challenges involved with building a quantum computer had indeed set in.

Dr. Ivan Deutsch, professor and Regents’ Lecturer at the University of New Mexico, explained the difficulty in achieving a quantum computer. In quantum cryptography, which is explained more in depth below, the goal is to distribute two shared secret keys. Basically, the secret keys are created using the properties of quantum randomness. It works on a particle-by-particle basis. In other words, in quantum encryption one photon can be sent at a time. It is simple to control a single particle. Quantum computing, on the other hand, is much more complex because it deals with computation as opposed to the transmission of single photons. Computations require logic, and logic requires the use of many 1s and 0s that cannot be sent individually since each one is interdependent. Furthermore, each qubit needs to be in an entangled state simultaneously. Due to this added degree of complexity, quantum computing is much further away from realization than quantum cryptography.9

Despite this apparent shift in interest from quantum computing to quantum cryptography, in February 2013, a Chinese report emerged touting a breakthrough in trying to achieve the quantum computer: “The solid-state quantum research crew from the University of Science and Technology of China succeeded in performing the quantum logic gate operation on one single electron at 10 picoseconds, renewing the previous world records by nearly 100 times.”10 Prior to China’s achievement, “U.S. and Japanese research institutes achieved the electrically controlled semiconductor logic gate at 1,000 picoseconds.”11 China’s achievement, however, increased the operational speed by nearly 100 times to 10 picoseconds. According to Guo Guoping, director of the research project:

China has launched the solid-state quantum chip project in efforts to gain a foothold in the global competition in the next-generation computer chips. . . . The quantum chip . . . will make the quantum computer characterized by exponentially increased operational speed and greatly improved data processing capabilities.12

The ability to break current encryption systems makes modern day information vulnerable. Furthermore, an inherent risk to national security should a quantum computer come online would be its ability to access archived information previously protected by systems such as today’s RSA encryption. Dr. Jonathan Dowling, a professor and Hearne Chair of Theoretical Physics at Louisiana State University, explained that information encrypted using RSA could be intercepted and archived today in its encrypted format. Once a quantum computer is online, it could be used to break older archived encrypted data, possibly still classified.13

Carl Williams, chief of the Quantum Measurement Division of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, agrees that there are certain risks to quantum computers, but he adds that there are benefits as well, pointing out they could eventually solve problems of profound scientific and technical benefit. “If you ask me 100 years from now what the benefit of this technology is, I would probably say it is a societal benefit,” stated Williams.14

Quantum Communication: The Pursuit of the Perfect Encryption System. Encryption methods have evolved over time, becoming increasingly complex and difficult for an adversary to break. The trend in cryptography has evolved from traditional manual enciphered and deciphered codes to mechanical encryptions and computerized cryptography. Today’s top cryptography systems such as RSA and Pretty Good Privacy are considered highly secure. Breaking messages has become nearly impossible with the growing sophistication of today’s cryptography. However, experts believe it is only a matter of time before existing encryption systems are broken.

Currently there are projects in place to try to counter the threat of a future quantum computer. Post-quantum cryptography is a relatively new field in which research is conducted on public-key encryption systems, which are not breakable using quantum computers. Quantum cryptography (distinct from post-quantum cryptography) offers another way to try to counter the risks of a quantum computer coming online. This newest form of cryptography is based on quantum theory and is proving to be unbreakable.

Quantum key distribution (QKD), a process within the context of quantum cryptography, generates a random encryption key shared by the sender and recipient. The biggest advantage of QKD is that if a third party attempts to intercept it, the party will be detected and the secret message will not be sent. QKD deals with photon states and works as follows: Alice, Bob, and Eve are three fictional characters. In quantum cryptography, Alice wants to send a secret message to Bob. She has to first send him the key through the process known as QKD. This means she is sending him a series of photons in random quantum states. If Eve tries to intercept the message, it changes the quantum states of the photons.

QKD is already a reality, although limited in capability. A small number of commercial companies have offered quantum encryption systems. For example, the U.S.-based technology company MagiQ sold a system in 2003 called the Q-Box. The Q-Box is a single-photon-based system developed for further research related to QKD. These systems, however, are far from perfect and have had a limited distribution. Moreover, QKD can be sent either via fiber optic or through free space. Going through fiber optic cables, it generally cannot travel more than 50 kilometers (km) without a quantum repeater, which has not yet been developed.

China has touted a number of successful experiments in the area of quantum communication. For example, in 2004 the Key Laboratory of Quantum Information reportedly completed a 125-km fiber point-to-point QKD experiment. This experiment, according to Chinese reports, “solved the problem of stability in quantum cryptography systems.”15 These results are questionable, but not impossible. According to Carl Williams, “If I wait long enough and my fiber is perfectly dark and still, I can probably get a photon through at a longer distance than 50 kilometers.”

In a November 2005 article, China claimed to lead the United States, France, and Austria in quantum entanglement research when it provided an “experimental demonstration of five-photon entanglement and open-destination teleportation.”16 The more photons that can be successfully entangled, the higher the accuracy of the transmission.17

In 2006, China reported having fulfilled quantum teleportation of a two-particle system. Voting results at the Chinese Academy of Sciences showed that 565 academics chose it as the ninth most significant development that year in the country’s science-technology sector.18

In 2007, a report stated that China had created a quantum router, which they claimed was the first in the world. The router was said to have succeeded in encrypting data flowing between four computers on a commercial communications system. The router is different from point-to-point transmissions conducted in other parts of the world because it makes a quantum network possible.19 Then, in May 2009, a report emerged in the Chinese press claiming that the country had built the world’s first quantum encrypted government network and that its trial operation in Wuhu City, Anhui Province, served eight government departments in Wuhu.20

Scientists in China in 2012 reportedly teleported multiple photons 97 km across a lake within the country.21 This significant experiment puts China one step closer to achieving global transmission of quantum communications. Scientists would eventually like to use satellites to achieve global transmission of quantum communications. The distance that a quantum key can be sent through free space depends on which direction it is traveling. Traveling straight up toward space, it can go farther due to the integrated air mass (that is, the air becomes less dense). China recognizes that “by using satellites, ultra-long-distance quantum communication and tests of quantum foundations could be achieved on a global scale.”22

By 2016, China plans to launch the first “Chinese Quantum Science Satellite,” a satellite dedicated to quantum experiments, which according to China Daily would put the country ahead of both the United States and Europe. According to Pan, “The satellite will provide scientific answers to the feasibility of intercontinental quantum teleportation—to make it simple, whether I can talk to my friend in Vienna from Beijing on a quantum phone.”23

Matthew Luce, a researcher with Defense Group Inc.’s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, thinks that because of important applications for satellites as well as the security level:

quantum communication technology figures centrally in the objectives of the Chinese military to upgrade their growing command and control capabilities. A functional satellite-based quantum communication system would give the Chinese military the ability to operate further afield without fear of message interception.24

Furthermore, Luce points out that China’s research in quantum applications could help the country expose weaknesses in a network should the United States or another nation win the race in achieving the same technology.25

A Military Perspective on Quantum Power

While the possibility of cracking quantum technology is often viewed by scientists in academia as a personal challenge—presenting a potential opportunity to receive a Nobel Prize or a patent—it is also viewed by militaries and governments as having great security potential and significant implications.26 In November 2012, for example, the U.S. Army News Service reported that scientists at the U.S. Army Research Laboratory were conducting research and development on data teleportation to one day achieve secure, tamper resistant security. According to Ronald Meyers, who is leading an Army project in collaboration with the Joint Quantum Institute at the University of Maryland at College Park, “The greatest potential that a quantum communications network holds for the Army is secure communications.” Meyers also contends, “Quantum computers will be able to easily decrypt communications that are currently secure. . . . That’s one reason why it’s vital for us to explore quantum encryption.” Meyers envisions a future in which there will be “very powerful quantum computers with a lot of intelligence. They’ll be able to work over long distances without being intercepted. It’s going to change the world.”27

China has also recognized the potential power of quantum communications, and there is evidence indicating it is researching the possibilities at a higher level. Reports reveal that the National University of Defense Technology has been conducting quantum information technology research since the 1990s.28 The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has clearly taken an interest in quantum communications because other institutions are also studying the topic. For example, the PLA’s University of Science and Technology (PLAUST) reportedly opened 11 new research directions in 2011, to include quantum communication technology.29 Some researchers believe that quantum communications, along with cloud computing, intelligence optic networks, and high-speed satellite communications, provide asymmetric operational superiority for military forces and generate new types of combat power.

PLAUST has worked with both military and nonmilitary research institutes, achieving major successes in key technologies. The university conducts strategic cooperative research with civilian institutes to establish joint laboratories, which have reportedly resulted in over 90 percent of their achievements being applied to the armed forces’ needs. Quantum communications research is just one area, with information grid networking and electromagnetic camouflage and protection also being researched.30 The China Academy of Space Technology has done preparatory work to establish the country’s first quantum remote-sensing laboratory. The aerospace community believes that remote sensing is an important area for the application of quantum information technology. It is hoped the laboratory will allow Institute 508 to apply for funding from the national 863 and 973 programs. Such a funding request appears appropriate because, in 2012, quantum information technology was designated as one of the four key areas of scientific research in the next 15 years.31

More recently, quantum communication received recognition as a key technology by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) after the university’s president, Bai Chunli, announced plans to establish five innovation centers that would unite the country’s leading scientists and experts in advanced science and technology. The fields of study were quantum information and technology, Tibet plateau and Earth system science, particle physics, brain science, and thorium molten salt reactors.32 As a result, on January 15, 2014, China established the CAS Center for Excellence Quantum Information and Quantum Physics in Hefei. This new center is recognized as a model for the other four centers.33

Research, Academics, China’s Education Dilemma, and Economic Impact

China considers itself second in the world in terms of research and development spending, and it has conducted original research in quantum communications that has had an international impact.34 Research has been ongoing in CAS since 1998, when innovative projects along with quantum communications held interest.35 Quantum topics have had high-level interest for some time. Former President Hu Jintao stated in a speech that quantum communications had exerted great influence on China’s economic and social development.36 Premier Wen Jiabao noted, “Quantum theory and the theory of relativity stimulated the development of semiconductors and microelectronic integrated circuit technology, information technology, laser technology, nuclear energy, and related technologies.”37 In 2011, Liu Yandong, state councilor and Communist Party of China Central Committee Political Bureau member, noted that quantum communications have made “fresh contributions to scientific development.”38 She stated in 2012 that quantum communication technology has important strategic significance in ensuring the safety of state information. More important, she made these remarks while attending a ceremony to launch the financial information quantum communication verification network.39

With such high-level cover it is not surprising that China’s rapid science and technology development has been tied to quantum information.40 As an example of the use of quantum information, in 2011 CAS reported on cooperation between the Institute of Modern Physics and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The physics research team “reportedly made significant progress in the research on the quantum state of ion-atom collisions, contributing to the better understanding of plasma evolution and plasma state diagnosis.”41 Such discoveries are ongoing and expanding.42

China has been on a path to expand its overall technological capabilities. One approach has been to overhaul the country’s education system. During China’s Ninth Five-Year Plan (1996–2000), the government began to initiate actions to strengthen a number of higher learning and key disciplinary areas. The goal was to upgrade 100 institutions to greatly improve their quality of education, scientific research, management, and institutional efficiency. The select 100 institutions were expected to, through their own merit, easily “exert significant impact on the country’s social and economic development, scientific and technological advancement, and the national defense.”43

The availability of funding in China for basic research has also been increasing steadily. In 1986 the investment in basic research was only 80 million yuan (approximately $9 to $10 million).44 By 2012, according to Chen Yiyu, director of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), the Chinese government allocated more than 15 billion yuan ($2.38 billion) from the central budget to the NSFC. While only a portion of the money goes toward researching quantum information, the NSFC is a key source of funding for China’s research and development on quantum properties and applications.

China’s growing economy and increasing wealth make it easier than most other countries to sink money into research and development programs. During the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory’s second annual Karles Invitational Conference, Zachary J. Lemnios, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, pointed out that:

Nations with strong GDP growth—think China, Russia, South Korea—are using their increasing wealth to bolster investments in basic science, applied research, and advanced technology development, and these investments are increasingly focused. For example, the Chinese National Medium- to Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology (2005–2020), aims to make China an “indigenous innovator” by 2020, and to do this they are investing in 16 goal-oriented basic research “megaprojects,” one of which is quantum research.45

Basic research is essential for innovation. While the United States spends more money overall in basic research than any other country, Chinese investments are rising at a faster rate. According to Dowling, “One of the things that concerns me in the United States right now is that we are falling behind in our investments, particularly in basic science research. . . . We are getting to the point where we are no longer even in the top ten in terms of per capita investment in basic research anymore.”46

Despite its economic wealth, however, China still has a number of hurdles to overcome before it can become a global innovative force. Pan attributes some of China’s lack of creativity to the high amount of pressure placed on students. Students devote years to intensive studying. However, according to Pan, they “are often incapable of developing independent solutions” due to a lack of creativity. There has been talk of changing the education system, but this has not yet happened. As Pan pointed out, there are simply too many students.47

China’s academic and scientific efforts point to the country’s desire to achieve global technical superiority. Williams, who recognizes that quantum technologies will likely one day offer tremendous benefits to society, also sees the importance of maintaining a competitive edge in research and development to maintain both innovative and economic superiority. According to Williams, “While quantum technologies clearly create a direct risk to national security, the bigger risk is the threat to economic security since a strong economy is required to drive a strong military and innovation and quantum technologies are likely to be an innovation driver for the 21st century.”48

Physicist Paul Davies once wrote, “The nineteenth century was known as the machine age, the twentieth century will go down in history as the information age. I believe the twenty-first century will be the quantum age.”49 Quantum technology is still in its infancy. The first organization or government to achieve quantum communication or quantum computing will control the technology, giving that country an advantage in every respect.

Conclusion

According to a 2010 article published by Time, “China is now at the cutting-edge of military communications, transforming the field of cryptography and spotlighting a growing communications arms race.”⁵⁰ China, intent on becoming a global technology innovative force, has been making huge strides in research and development in many areas including quantum communication. There is a major push in the country to become the frontrunner in breakthroughs that will one day lead to the first quantum computer and the perfect quantum communication network. Should China eventually win the race in achieving certain quantum-based technologies, it could have a significant impact on national security and China’s role as an emerging superpower.

Quantum technologies have the potential to revolutionize secure communications for military and intelligence organizations. A quantum computer might one day be able to access information that had been archived but not yet declassified. Quantum technologies could also lead to revolutionary applications that might help propel a nation to economic superiority.

While China still lags behind developed nations in many ways, as its academic programs and research methodology continue to evolve, the country could eventually gain a lead in the research and development of quantum information. It is impossible to predict who will win the race for this revolutionary technology. However, one thing is certain: The force behind China’s research and development programs is growing.

Source:
This article was originally published in the Joint Force Quarterly 77, which is published by the National Defense University.

Notes:

1. Hiram M. Wolfe III, Raymond P. Schmidt, and Thomas N. Thompson, Southeast Asia: Working Against the Tide, Part One (Washington, DC: National Security Agency [NSA], June 1970), available at <www.nsa.gov/public_info/_files/cryptologic_histories/work_against_tide.pdf>. Released in 2004 by NSA in Freedom of Information Act Case # 41608.
2. Ibid.
3. Jonathan P. Dowling and Gerard J. Milburn, “Quantum Technology: The Second Quantum Revolution,” Philosophical Transactions A, August 15, 2003, available at <http://arxiv.org/ftp/quant-ph/papers/0206/0206091.pdf>.
4. Gregory Huang, “Master of Qubits,” New Scientist 196, no. 2629 (November 10, 2007).
5. “Key Laboratory of Quantum Information,” School of Physical Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China Web site, available at <en.physics.ustc.edu.cn/research_9/Quantum/201107/t20110728_116550.html>.
6. “Quantum Computer to Be Developed in 15 Years, Chinese Scientist Predicts,” Xinhua, January 6, 2006, available at <http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200601/06/eng20060106_233390.html>.
7. Huang.
8. Stefanie Schramm, “Pan’s Dream,” Academics.com, November 2, 2010, available at <www.academics.com/science/pan_s_dream_39586.html>.
9. Ivan Deutsch, interview with author, November 13, 2012.
10. “China Makes Breakthrough on Quantum Computer,” People’s Daily, February 7, 2013, available at <http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/202936/8126200.html>.
11. Ibid.; one picosecond is the equivalent of one trillionth (10^-12) of a second.
12. Ibid.
13. Jonathan Dowling, telephone interview with author, September 7, 2012.
14. Carl Williams, telephone interview with author, January 11, 2013.
15. “China Successes in Test of Quantum Cryptography Network: Scientists,” People’s Daily, April 3, 2007, available at <http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200704/03/eng20070403_363235.html>.
16. “China Tests Secure Quantum Communication,” Xinhua, November 29, 2005, available at <http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200511/29/eng20051129_224358.html>.
17. Williams.
18. “Ten Most Significant Developments in Sci-Tech in 2006,” People’s Daily, January 22, 2007, available at <http://english.people.com.cn/200701/22/eng20070122_343621.html>.
19. Stephen Chen, “Quantum Leap Claimed in Tighter Internet Security,” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), May 8, 2007.
20. Chen Xia, “China Builds World’s First Quantum Encrypted Gov’t Network,” China.org.cn, May 21, 2009, available at <www.china.org.cn/government/local_governments/2009-05/21/content_17813415.htm>.
21. Alexandra Witze, “Quantum Teleportation Takes Leap: Two Teams Improve Long-Distance Information Transmission,” Science News 181, no. 13 (June 30, 2012), 10.
22. Juan Yin et al, “Quantum Teleportation and Entanglement Distribution Over 100-Kilometre Free-Space Channels,” Nature 488 (August 9, 2012), 185.
23. Cheng Yingqi, “Quantum of Solace as Breakthrough Looms,” China Daily, October 17, 2013.
24. Matthew Luce, “China’s Secure Communications Quantum Leap,” China Brief 10, no. 17, Jamestown Foundation, August 19, 2010, available at <www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=36772&cHash=104f9aac40>.
25. Ibid.
26. Discussions in this section developed in concert with Timothy Thomas.
27. David McNally, “Army Researchers Seek Secure Quantum Communications,” Army News Service, November 30, 2012.
28. He Shuyuan et al., “Join Forces and Pool Wisdom to Forge National-Defense Equipment and Facilities…” Jiafangjun Bao [PLA Daily], July 26, 2011, available at <news.china.com.cn/rollnews/2011-07/26/content_9145749.htm>.
29. Yang Zhijun, Yang Daichun, and Ma Shengwei, “PLA UST Promotes Integrated Development of Interdisciplinary Research,” Jiefangjun Bao [PLA Daily], October 11, 2011.
30. Yang Zhijun and Ma Shengwei, “PLA UST Promotes Cross-Disciplinary Fusion, Intensifies Military-Civilian Joint Endeavors—More than 740 Innovative Achievements Help Enhance Combat Capabilities of the Armed Forces,” Jiafangjun Bao [PLA Daily], March 18, 2012, 1.
31. Zhongguo Hangtian Bao Online, July 25, 2012.
32. “China Establishes Advanced Science Research Centers,” Xinhua, January 9, 2014.
33. Zhu Lixin, “China’s Top Quantum Tech Center Founded in Hefei,” China Daily, January 15, 2014.
34. Stephen Chen, “Science Chief Wants to See China Lead the Way in Scientific Breakthroughs,” South China Morning Post Online, November 25, 2012, available at <www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1090163/science-chief-wants-see-china-lead-way-scientific-breakthroughs>.
35. Wen Jiabao, “Actively Greeting the Dawn and the Challenges of New Science and Technology, Xinhua Domestic Service, July 2, 2012.
36. “To Carry out in a Down-to-Earth Way the Strategy of Promoting Development Through Innovation—Third Commentary on Extensively Studying the Spirit of General Secretary Hu Jintao’s Important Speech,” Jingji Ribao Online (Chinese), July 31, 2012, available at <http://paper.ce.cn/jjrb/html/2012-07/31/content_125344.htm>.
37. Summary of speech by Wen Jiabao, “Several Issues Regarding S&T,” Qiushi Online 14 (Chinese), July 16, 2011, available at <www.gov.cn/ldhd/2011-07/16/content_1907593.htm>.
38. Liu Yandong, “Striving to Break New Ground in Fundamental Research,” Qiushi Online 15 (Chinese), August 1, 2011, available at <www.gov.cn/ldhd/2011-08/01/content_1917336.htm>.
39. Discussions developed in concert with Timothy Thomas.
40. Cheng Yingqi, “Tianjin Meeting a Hotbed of Scientific Exchange,” China Daily, September 18, 2012, available at <www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-09/18/content_15766622.htm>.
41. Chinese Academy of Sciences, available at <http://english.cas.cn>.
42. Discussions in the first two paragraphs of this section developed in concert with Timothy Thomas.
43. “Project 211: A Brief Introduction,” China Education and Research Network Web site, available at <www.edu.cn/20010101/21852.shtml>.
44. Currency exchange rates for 1987 are not available. Calculation done based on 2002 rates. See “Central Gov’t to Pour 2.4 Billion U.S. Dollars Into Sciences,” Xinhua, March 27, 2012.
45. Zachary J. Lemnios, “Introduction: Dr. Jerome Karle and Dr. Isabella Karle,” speech during Second Annual Karles Invitational Conference, Department of Defense as Technology Incubators, August 27, 2012.
46. Dowling.
47. Schramm.
48. Williams.
49. Gerard J. Milburn, Schrodinger’s Machines: The Quantum Technology Reshaping Everyday Life (New York: W.H. Freeman, 1997), preface.
50. Christopher Shay, “China’s Great Quantum Leap Forward,” Time, September 9, 2010.

The post The Quantum Leap Into Computing And Communication: A Chinese Perspective – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Gonzalo Escribano*

In 2005, when José Miguel Insulza was elected Secretary General of the OAS for the first time, he presented himself as the candidate of a united Latin America. He faced the Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez, who presented a distinct North American alternative to Insulza’s agenda. A moderate Chilean socialist, Insulza’s legacy complied with the expectations at the time of his first election, but it would be challenged from both the left and the right.

Once in office, Insulza stood up to Washington on a number of occasions. During his term as Secretary General, the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) initiative, driven by US policymakers since the 1990’s with the intention of expanding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to the whole hemisphere, was officially left to die. Insulza took a significant stand against US interests after he facilitated the negotiations to revoke the 1962 resolution, promoted by the US, through which the Cuban government remained on the outside the organization.

But perhaps the most rebellious act on Insulza’s part as Secretary General, was to come up with the publication and promotion of the OAS Report on the Drug Problem in the Americas in which the organization openly suggested countries to try “alternative legal and regulatory regimes, starting with cannabis.” [1]

This was particularly significant in the region that had been most impacted by the prohibition regime and its internationalization led by the US. Since President Nixon declared the War on Drugs (WoD) in 1971, the US has consistently pushed this matter in its foreign policy agenda in the hemisphere. Even before the declaration of the WoD, the Federal Bureau of Narcotics was already establishing offices around the region. Along with the WoD, the DEA was established, and American agents were being sent to their embassies with the task of acquiring information to identify and convict drug-traffickers and to train foreign national police agents. Perhaps there is no better demonstration of the US hegemonic drive in the region than the unilateral process of Certification for Major Illicit Drug Producing and Transit Countries that would later be imposed on many countries. Although a paradigm shift leading to the liberalization of the drug economy would be sterile without the involvement of the US, the OAS position on drug legalization would represent the beginning of an anti-hegemonic coalition of Latin-American states against US drug-policies and foreign policy goals.

But many human rights activists and democrats in the region contest the legacy of Insulza. His realist position challenging the quality of US leadership within the OAS led him to treat Venezuela and Cuba too softly during crises that resulted in political persecutions and other abuses of civil and political rights. Insulza chose to transform the shape of the OAS while distancing the organization from Washington’s foreign policy intentions in the region, although this came at the price of renouncing its own liberal principles.

Uruguay’s former Foreign minister Luis Almagro was elected in March as successor of Insulza for the next five years. A respected member of the cabinet of former president José Mujica, Almagro is well known for his leftist positions although he is not particularly keen of the Venezuelan model. Under his leadership we can expect a continuation of what Insulza started. In 2013, Uruguay became the first country in the Americas to regulate the cannabis economy and Almagro has defended this drug-policy shift since then. His experience in the area of drug liberalization is likely to deepen the work on drugs and crime that the OAS started under Insulza. At the same time, Almagro’s leadership will maintain the new approach of the organization regarding Cuba, which will most likely participate in April’s Sixth Summit of the Americas in Panama and intensify the efforts of the OAS to promote hemispheric relations based on the themes of solidarity and social development.

*Gonzalo Escribano, COHA Guest Scholar and Lecturer of Political Science and International Relations at the Iberoamericana University in Mexico City

[1] “Scenarios for the Drug Problem in the Americas: 2013-2025,” Organization of American States, in the report The Drug Problem in the Americas, under the mandate given to the OAS by the Head of Government of Member States Meeting at the 2012 Summit of the America in Cartagena de Indies (May 2013): 23.

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The World Health Organisation declared the Ebola virus outbreak a public health emergency in August 2014; since then the development of vaccines against Ebola virus has been fast tracked.

Experts at St. George’s, University of London, are working in collaboration with other international researchers on one of these vaccines; rVSV-ZEBOV-GP. Researchers are now vaccinating a larger population to examine the efficacy of this vaccine.

The initial study, which tested the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity of the vaccine, has been successfully completed; with the first volunteer vaccinated in November 2014. Volunteers in Kenya, Gabon, Switzerland and Germany participated in this harmonised phase I clinical trial.

The rVSV-ZEBOV-GP vaccine, which is named after its components, carries only one protein (GP) from the Zaire strain of the Ebola virus (ZEBOV) on the surface of a different virus (VSV) that infects cows, horses, pigs and insects. The Ebola virus protein by itself is not able to cause any disease, and VSV only causes minimal illness in humans.

Currently, it is the only vaccine against Ebola virus disease in clinical trials that is made from a replicating virus. The advantage of this type of vaccine is that the immune system may develop an effective protective response to Ebola virus, and it allows the use of a lower dose of vaccine. Furthermore, only one shot of vaccine may be required, minimising the number of visits to healthcare workers needed to develop protection.

Experts at St. George’s, University of London, are part of an international consortium (VEBCON) that provided results essential to begin a clinical trial to test the vaccine in Guinea. They say early results are good and responses to the vaccine are promising.

Professor Sanjeev Krishna, of the university’s Institute for Infection and Immunity, said: “We have not had such urgency to deliver a viable vaccine or treatment since the coming together of medical experts in the early 1980s tackling HIV. The progress of these clinical trials is very promising and this vaccine adds significantly to the options available for testing against Ebola virus.”

“Although cases of Ebola virus disease are now decreasing, the outbreak has left an appalling legacy. If a vaccine had been available, the health workers tackling this scourge could have been protected. We still urgently need a safe and effective vaccine to protect people in the future. This research works towards meeting that need.”

The consortium examining the Ebola virus vaccine is led by our colleagues in Lambaréné at CERMEL, Gabon, coordinated by Dr Selidji Agnandji, and by Professor Peter Kremsner in their partner institute at University of Tübingen in Germany.

Professor Krishna acts as a scientific advisor to the consortium, and was among a consortium of experts convened by the WHO, in September 2014 in Geneva, to discuss solutions and strategies for combatting the current Ebola virus crisis. The candidate vaccine is called rVSV-ZEBOV-GP and was developed by the Canadian Public Health Agency and produced by the US firm NewLink Genetics. A new paper on the Phase I trial has been published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

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Egg consumption may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes, according to new research from the University of Eastern Finland. The findings were published in American Journal of Clinical Nutrition.

Type 2 diabetes is becoming increasingly widespread throughout the world. Research has shown that lifestyle habits, such as exercise and nutrition, play a crucial role in the development of the disease.

In some studies, high-cholesterol diets have been associated with disturbances in glucose metabolism and risk of type 2 diabetes. In contrast, in some experimental studies, the consumption of eggs has led to improved glucose balance, among other things. However, there is no experimental data available on the effects of egg consumption on the incidence of type 2 diabetes.

In population-based studies, too, the association between egg consumption and type 2 diabetes has been investigated only scarcely, and the findings have been inconclusive. Egg consumption has either been associated with an elevated risk, or no association has been found.

The dietary habits of 2,332 men aged between 42 and 60 years were assessed at the baseline of the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study, KIHD, at the University of Eastern Finland in 1984–1989. During a follow-up of 19.3 years, 432 men were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.

The study found that egg consumption was associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes as well as with lower blood glucose levels. Men who ate approximately four eggs per week had a 37 per cent lower risk of type 2 diabetes than men who only ate approximately one egg per week. This association persisted even after possible confounding factors such as physical activity, body mass index, smoking and consumption of fruits and vegetables were taken into consideration. The consumption of more than four eggs did not bring any significant additional benefits.

A possible explanation is that unlike in many other populations, egg consumption in Finland is not strongly associated with unhealthy lifestyle habits such as smoking, low physical activity or consumption of processed meats. In addition to cholesterol, eggs contain many beneficial nutrients that can have an effect on, for example, glucose metabolism and low-grade inflammation, and thus lower the risk of type 2 diabetes.

The study also suggests that the overall health effects of foods are difficult to anticipate based on an individual nutrient such as cholesterol alone. Indeed, instead of focusing on individual nutrients, nutrition research has increasingly focused on the health effects of whole foods and diets over the past few years.

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Over the past 30 years, the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on the Earth. In fact, Arctic air temperatures have been increasing twice as much as the global average.

Arctic warming is causing changes to sea ice, snow cover, and the extent of permafrost in the Arctic. Over the past 30 years, Arctic sea ice cover has declined by 30 % in September, and frozen ground in the Arctic has started to thaw out. The Arctic region matters so much because it acts as a refrigerator for the rest of the world, and changes there could lead to strong feedback effects that spur further warming. It comes as no surprise then that the region has become the focus of intense research efforts.

Three EU Member States – Denmark (Greenland and Faroe Islands), Finland and Sweden – have territories in the Arctic, and the EU is a major contributor to Arctic research. Through the FP7 programme, the EU contributed around EUR 200 million to international research activities in the Arctic. And in its Communication on the EU and the Arctic region, the European Commission has stated that the EU should ‘maintain the Arctic as a priority area for research to close knowledge gaps and assess future anthropogenic impacts, especially in the area of climate change’.

The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA) has also identified Arctic climate stability and change as a priority area of focus. At ECRA’s General Assembly (GA) in Brussels last week, Prof. Dr. Thomas Jung from the Arctic ECRA collaborative programme outlined the work that the team is doing in this area.

Involving 25 research institutions including bodies and operational centres in 10 European countries, Arctic ECRA aims to raise awareness of key scientific challenges, carry out coordinated research activities using existing resources, and set up coordinated, cutting-edge European polar research and education projects. The network includes experts in theory, observations, modelling, operational forecasting and logistics, and it is backed by access to large-scale infrastructure such as icebreakers, polar stations, aircraft and supercomputing facilities.

At the ECRA GA, Prof. Dr. Jung, who works at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, explored the questions that Arctic ECRA, and indeed Arctic researchers at large, are addressing, namely: Why is Arctic ice declining so rapidly? What are the local and global consequences? Can polar prediction be improved?

It is clear that average monthly sea ice extent in the Arctic is in decline. It is also concerning that the composition of the ice is changing. According to Prof. Dr. Jung, first year ice is now far more dominant than multi-year ice, and the oldest, thickest ice (five or more years old) continues to decline. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) says that the decline of the older ice has prevented any significant recovery of the summer minimum extent: ‘In essence, what was once a refuge for older ice has become a graveyard.’

What will the impacts of these and other changes in the Arctic be at local and global level? Prof. Dr. Jung pointed to a report by the insurer Llyods on opportunity and risk from the Arctic warming. The ‘opening’ of the Arctic as a result of melting ice will have impacts for oil, gas, mining, fisheries, shipping, logistics and Arctic tourism. We have already seen how many governments are eyeing up the region as access opens to new shipping routes and previously inaccessible oil reserves. According to the US Geological Survey, the Arctic holds 13 % of undiscovered oil and 30 % of undiscovered gas supplies. However, as Prof. Dr. Jung cautioned, this also leads to new dilemmas because disasters in the Arctic are likely to be ‘much more painful’ than those which occur at lower latitudes. Indeed, one observer at the ECRA GA insisted that the option of drilling in the Arctic should not even be under discussion as ‘we know the oil needs to stay in the ground.’

‘What happens at the poles does not stay at the poles’: Prof. Dr. Jung borrowed a quote to convey the fact that Arctic melt leads to consequences beyond the Arctic region. Indeed, the European Environment Agency (EEA) tells us that a warming Arctic could lead to more extreme summers and winters in the Northern hemisphere, and has the potential to change many global systems from weather patterns and oceans streams to species distribution.

Unfortunately, climate prediction capabilities in the Arctic do not currently match those on lower latitudes. For example, we are lacking a good observational system. What we need, Prof. Dr. Jung concluded in his address to the ECRA GA, is better prediction capabilities to improve research in the Arctic.

Source: CORDIS

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Sheikh Abdul Rahman Al-Sudais, head of the Presidency of the Two Holy Mosques, said that Saudi Arabia’s efforts to defend the oppressed and deter the oppressors have added prestige, power and glory to the Arab and Islamic nations.

In an interview with Saudi TV Channel 1, the widely respected religious scholar said Saudi Arabia has taken action which is supported by a number of Shariah laws.

Al-Sudais described Operation Decisive Storm, which was launched on the orders of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman, “as a historic decision that came at the right time.”

“The wise and brave operation was initiated keeping in view the provisions of Shariah laws,” he said. “It was not dependent on personal or political gains.”

He said any threat to the Kingdom and any evil intention toward the two Holy Mosques in Makkah and Madinah cannot be tolerated.

“There is no possibility of forgiving whoever tries to threaten or jeopardize the security of these Holy Mosques,” he said.

According to Al-Sudais, there is a need to protect Saudi and Yemeni interests.

Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) blessed Yemen and sent Ali bin Abi Taleb and Maaz bin Jabal and a number of his companions, he said.

“Under Islam, you are obliged to support your neighbors if they seek help,” said Al-Sudais.

The militias have foreign support, he added. They have their own agenda and they only wish to spread their domination over the Gulf countries, he said.

Al-Sudais said that Decisive Storm came after the Kingdom exhausted all efforts to contain the crisis through dialogue.

All nations need to stand together during times of hardship to serve the Ummah, he said.

He called on the people to get their news from authentic sources.

“Do not pay attention to rumors spread through social networking sites,” he said.

Al-Sudais expressed gratitude to King Salman and highlighted his courageous position.

He also expressed appreciation to the Yemeni people whom he asked to remain united.

To the Saudi soldiers engaged in the noble action, he said: “May Allah grant you victory.”

The post Saudi Operation Decisive Storm Has Brought Glory To Islamic World, Says Al-Sudais appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Daniel McAdams

As the US-backed Saudi bombing of Yemen enters into its second week, more than 500 people — including many civilians — have been killed, what infrastructure existed in the impoverished country has been destroyed, and the ousted president cheers on the destruction of his country within the protective embrace of the country that is bombing his own.

What is less reported in a US mainstream media is that one group in Yemen seems to be making out quite well in the US-backed and Saudi-created chaos: al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Yes, al-Qaeda. The group that the US has been droning in Yemen since 2010. The drone strikes that set the population and especially various tribes like the Houthis against the US-accommodating Hadi. The Houthis who had been fighting al-Qaeda in Yemen before they started being bombed by Saudi Arabia. That al-Qaeda.

A Thursday prison raid by al-Qaeda operatives in the port city of Mukalla freed one of their commanders, “emir” Khaled Batarfi. Barfi celebrated his freedom by taking up residence in the abandoned regional governors palace as Saudi planes continued to bomb al-Qaeda’s enemy in Yemen, the Houthis. Barfi even used the palace telephone apparently to issue orders to his minions. It must have been hard for him to believe his incredible good luck!

The Saudis are said to have air-dropped weapons to supporters of ousted president, Mansur Hadi, in the battleground port city of Aden. How long before al-Qaeda shows up with these gifts from the Saudis by way of the US military-industrial complex?

So why is the US backing the Saudi attack on its neighbor? It is complicated. According to US government logic, when Yanukovych was chased by a mob from his office in Ukraine, by leaving the country he lost legitimacy. In Yemen, on the other hand, when president Hadi was chased by a mob from his office he retained his legitimacy and Saudi airstrikes were approved and coordinated by the US to put him back in office.

It had something to do with democracy, it was said. However, Hadi was “elected” after overthrowing his predecessor in a coup and standing for office as the only candidate on the ballot. Not surprisingly in the circumstance, he “won” more than 99 percent of the vote. Then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was effusive in her praise, claiming the Soviet-style election and inauguration “were promising steps on the path toward a new, democratic chapter in Yemen’s history.”

Yanukovych, in contrast, was elected in a contested election judged to be “free and fair” by international monitoring bodies.

Watching State Department Spokesman Jen Psaki defend these double standards is one of those golden comedy moments that makes you laugh and then cry.

So the US backs Saudi attacks on Yemen in he name of democracy even though neither country is remotely democratic, and even though none except al-Qaeda and the US military-industrial complex seems to be benefitting. Is this incompetence, arrogance, ignorance, or something darker?

This article was published by the RonPaul Institute.

The post Guess Who’s Loving Saudi Bombs In Yemen? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken his fight against the nuclear deal with Iran a step further, appearing on three US talk shows in attempt to persuade the audience that the agreement struck is “bad” and a “better” one is needed.

The Israeli leader took to the US airwaves on Sunday to once again decry the preliminary nuclear agreement announced days ago in Switzerland and set to be finalized at the end of June.

AP reports that Netanyahu had been using a set of freshly developed talking points drafted by advisers over the weekend.

“A better deal would roll back Iran’s vast nuclear infrastructure, and require Iran to stop its aggression in the region, its terror worldwide and its calls and actions to annihilate the state of Israel,” Netanyahu said on CNN’s State of the Union program. “That’s a better deal. It’s achievable.”

The interim deal dictates that international sanctions be lifted if Iran meets its commitments to roll back its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency would conduct regular inspections on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Netanyahu, however, believes that sanctions should be ramped up not rolled back in order to pressure Iran until it halts its “aggression in the region.” He also expresses doubt about the efficacy of inspections.

“I wouldn’t bet the shop on inspections,” he said. “It’s not a country that you can place your trust in. And it’s not a country that you’re going to resolve its congenital cheating. You’re just not going to replace it by placing more inspectors there.”

He added on NBC’s Meet the Press: “I’m not trying to kill any deal. I’m trying to kill a bad deal.”

Netanyahu lashed out at the deal hours after it was signed, arguing in a phone conversation with the US President, that it would only “increase the risks of nuclear proliferation in the region and the risks of a horrific war.”

Last month, Netanyahu raised the hackles of the administration after accepting an invite from Republicans to address US Congress urging lawmakers to stand up to the White House and stand strong against Iran. Democrats considered the move a violation of Capitol Hill protocol.

One of the Senate’s most prominent voices on foreign affairs, Democrat Dianne Feinstein appeared on CNN with harsh words for the Israeli leader as he made the talk show rounds on Sunday.

“I wish he would contain himself,” she told CNN’s State of the Union program. “I don’t think it’s helpful for Israel to come out and oppose this one opportunity to change a major dynamic which is downhill, a downhill dynamic in this part of the world.”

Professor of International Law at Georgetown University Daoud Khairallah told RT that although Israel will mobilize all resources to try and derail the nuclear deal, Washington and its allies in the Middle East will eventually have to adjust to a new reality.

“They had made an environment of tension in the Middle East based on vilifying Iran and creating an Iranian scarecrow and nuclear threat to the whole world. Whereas Israel sits on a huge pile of nuclear weapons,” he said.

The post Netanyahu Urges US To ‘Kill Bad Deal’ On Iran appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Ann Schneible

Pope Francis reminded Christians this Easter of the strength which comes from Christ’s death and resurrection, calling them to be witnesses of peace and justice, especially for those suffering today in regions of extreme violence and persecution.

“From the risen Lord we ask the grace not to succumb to the pride which fuels violence and war, but to have the humble courage of pardon and peace,” the pontiff said to tens of thousands of cold, rain-soaked pilgrims in St. Peter’s Square for Easter Sunday Mass.

Delivering the traditional Urbi et Orbi address from the central balcony of the basilica after the Mass, the Pope asked Jesus, as “the Victor over death, to lighten the sufferings of our many brothers and sisters who are persecuted for his name, and of all those who suffer injustice as a result of ongoing conflicts and violence.”

Pope Francis listed by name some of the current conflict zones around the world, especially the Middle East, Africa, and Ukraine, and called for peace in those regions of ongoing violence.

He made particular mention of Kenya, which is still reeling from the massacre of 148 young people at Garissa University College on Thursday.

The pontiff also appealed for “peace and freedom” for victims of slavery, drug dealers, and “peace for this world subjected to arms dealers.”

Looking down from the loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica on the scores of pilgrims with their umbrellas, braving the inclement weather, the Pope appealed for all those suffering: “the marginalized, the imprisoned, the poor and the migrants who are so often rejected, maltreated and discarded, the sick and the suffering, children, especially those who are victims of violence.”

He called on them to listen to Jesus’ consoling words: “Fear not, for I am risen and I shall always be with you.”

By the death and resurrection celebrated on Easter Sunday, Pope Francis said, “Jesus shows everyone the way to life and happiness: this way is humility, which involves humiliation. This is the path which leads to glory.”

“Christians, by the grace of Christ, dead and risen, are the seeds of another humanity, in which we seek to live in service to one another, not to be arrogant, but rather respectful and ready to help.”

This grace is a strength, not a weakness, the Pope said. Rather, “those who bear within them God’s power, his love and his justice, do not need to employ violence; they speak and act with the power of truth, beauty and love.”

Below is the full text of Pope Francis’ Easter message:

Dear Brothers and Sisters,

Jesus Christ is risen!

Love has triumphed over hatred, life has conquered death, light has dispelled the darkness!

Out of love for us, Jesus Christ stripped himself of his divine glory, emptied himself, took on the form of a slave and humbled himself even to death, death on a cross. For this reason God exalted him and made him Lord of the universe. Jesus is Lord!

By his death and resurrection, Jesus shows everyone the way to life and happiness: this way is humility, which involves humiliation. This is the path which leads to glory. Only those who humble themselves can go towards the “things that are above”, towards God (cf. Col 3:1-4). The proud look “down from above”; the humble look “up from below”.

On Easter morning, alerted by the women, Peter and John ran to the tomb. They found it open and empty. Then they drew near and “bent down” in order to enter it. To enter into the mystery, we need to “bend down”, to abase ourselves. Only those who abase themselves understand the glorification of Jesus and are able to follow him on his way.

The world proposes that we put ourselves forward at all costs, that we compete, that we prevail… But Christians, by the grace of Christ, dead and risen, are the seeds of another humanity, in which we seek to live in service to one another, not to be arrogant, but rather respectful and ready to help.

This is not weakness, but true strength! Those who bear within them God’s power, his love and his justice, do not need to employ violence; they speak and act with the power of truth, beauty and love.

Today, from the risen Lord we ask the grace not to succumb to the pride which fuels violence and war, but to have the humble courage of pardon and peace. We ask Jesus, the Victor over death, to lighten the sufferings of our many brothers and sisters who are persecuted for his name, and of all those who suffer injustice as a result of ongoing conflicts and violence.

We ask for peace, above all, for Syria and Iraq, that the roar of arms may cease and that peaceful relations may be restored among the various groups which make up those beloved countries. May the international community not stand by before the immense humanitarian tragedy unfolding in these countries and the drama of the numerous refugees.

We pray for peace for all the peoples of the Holy Land. May the culture of encounter grow between Israelis and Palestinians and the peace process be resumed, in order to end years of suffering and division.

We implore peace for Libya, that the present absurd bloodshed and all barbarous acts of violence may cease, and that all concerned for the future of the country may work to favour reconciliation and to build a fraternal society respectful of the dignity of the person. For Yemen too we express our hope for the growth of a common desire for peace, for the good of the entire people.

At the same time, in hope we entrust to the merciful Lord the framework recently agreed to in Lausanne, that it may be a definitive step toward a more secure and fraternal world.

We ask the risen Lord for the gift of peace for Nigeria, South Sudan and for the various areas of Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. May constant prayer rise up from all people of goodwill for those who lost their lives – I think in particular of the young people who were killed last Thursday at Garissa University College in Kenya – for all who have been kidnapped, and for those forced to abandon their homes and their dear ones.

May the Lord’s resurrection bring light to beloved Ukraine, especially to those who have endured the violence of the conflict of recent months. May the country rediscover peace and hope thanks to the commitment of all interested parties.

We ask for peace and freedom for the many men and women subject to old and new forms of enslavement on the part of criminal individuals and groups. Peace and liberty for the victims of drug dealers, who are often allied with the powers who ought to defend peace and harmony in the human family. And we ask peace for this world subjected to arms dealers.

May the marginalized, the imprisoned, the poor and the migrants who are so often rejected, maltreated and discarded, the sick and the suffering, children, especially those who are victims of violence; all who today are in mourning, and all men and women of goodwill, hear the consoling voice of the Lord Jesus: “Peace to you!” (Lk 24:36). “Fear not, for I am risen and I shall always be with you” (cf. Roman Missal, Entrance Antiphon for Easter Day).

Pope Francis’ words after leading the faithful in the Urbi et Orbi prayer:

Dear brothers and sisters,

I wish to extend my best wishes for a Happy Easter to all have come to this Square from different countries, and for taking part through various means of social communication.

Bring to your homes and to those you meet the joyful announcement that the Lord of Life is risen, bearing love, justice, respect, and forgiveness.

Thank you for your presence, for your prayer, and for the enthusiasm of your faith, on a day that is very beautiful – and very ugly, on account of the rain.

A special thought and appreciation for the gift of flowers, which this year come from the Netherlands.

I wish you all a Happy Easter. Pray for me! Have a good lunch! Arrivederci!

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