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Human Hunting Weapons May Not Have Caused Demise Of Neanderthals

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Technological innovation may not have led to the colonization of Europe by anatomically modern humans, suggests new study

The demise of Neanderthals may have nothing to do with innovative hunting weapons carried by humans from west Asia, according to a new study published in the Journal of Human Evolution. The researchers, from Nagoya University and The University of Tokyo, Japan, say their findings mean that we may need to rethink the reasons humans survived Neanderthals – and that we may not have behaved as differently as we thought.

The researchers looked at innovative stone weapons used by humans about 42,000-34,000 years ago. Traditionally, anthropologists believed that innovation in weapons enabled humans to spread out of Africa to Europe. However, the new study suggests that the innovation was not a driving force for humans to migrate into Europe as previously thought – they were no better equipped than the Neanderthals.

“We’re not so special, I don’t think we survived Neanderthals simply because of technological competence,” said Dr. Seiji Kadowaki, first author of the study from Nagoya University, Japan. “Our work is related to the processes behind the global spread of modern humans, and specifically the cultural impact of the modern humans who migrated to Europe.”

Anatomically modern humans expanded the geographic area they inhabited out of Africa during a period of time 55,000-40,000 years ago – this event made a huge impact on the biological origin of people living today. There are other theories for the geographical spread of anatomically modern humans, but this is generally accepted as a major event in human history.

Previous models assumed that anatomically modern humans – our direct ancestors – were special in the way they behaved and thought. These models considered technological and cultural innovation as the reason humans survived and Neanderthals did not.

There has always been a big question around the demise of the Neanderthals – why did they disappear when humans survived? We have a similar anatomy, so researchers traditionally thought there must have been differences in the way Neanderthals and humans behaved. The new study suggests that humans moved from west Asia to Europe without a big change in their behavior.

The researchers studied stone tools that were used by people in the Early Ahmarian culture and the Protoaurignacian culture, living in south and west Europe and west Asia around 40,000 years ago. They used small stone points as tips for hunting weapons like throwing spears. Researchers previously considered these to be a significant innovation – one that helped the humans migrate from west Asia to Europe, where Neanderthals were living.

However, the new research reveals a timeline that doesn’t support this theory. If the innovation had led to the migration, evidence would show the stone points moving in the same direction as the humans. But at closer inspection, the researchers showed the possibility that the stone points appeared in Europe 3,000 years earlier than in the Levant, a historical area in west Asia. Innovation in hunting weapons can be necessary, but it’s not always associated with migration – populations can spread without technological innovations.

“We looked at the basic timeline revealed by similar stone points, and it shows that humans were using them in Europe before they appeared in the Levant – the opposite of what we’d expect if the innovation had led to the humans’ migration from Africa to Europe,” said Dr. Kadowaki.

“Our new findings mean that the research community now needs to reconsider the assumption that our ancestors moved to Europe and succeeded where Neanderthals failed because of cultural and technological innovations brought from Africa or west Asia.”

By re-examining the evidence, the researchers showed that the comparable stone weapons appeared in Europe around 42,000 years ago, and in the Levant 39,000 years ago. They believe the timings imply several new scenarios about the migration of modern humans into Europe. For example, they are likely to have migrated to Europe much earlier, and developed the tools there.

“We’re very excited about our new model. We think the causes of human evolution are more complicated than just being about technology. Now that we’ve re-examined the traditional model about the northern migration route to Europe, we are planning to re-evaluate the model on the southern migration route – from East Africa to South Asia” said Dr. Kadowaki.

The post Human Hunting Weapons May Not Have Caused Demise Of Neanderthals appeared first on Eurasia Review.


What Is Value Of Inequality Within Singapore’s Education System?

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50 years after Singapore gained independence, official statistics by the Ministry of Education, Singapore, reveal that Malays have sustained low academic achievement. Therefore, the possibility of a politically induced systemic inequality as a point of investigation has been raised. The relationship between this system and the reproduction of inequality, particularly through education policy, remains unclear.

Recently published in Critical Discourse Studies the article “Inequality as Meriocracy The use of the metaphor of diversity and the value of inequality within Singapore’s meritocratic education system” by Nadira Talib and Richard Fitzgerald, examines the way the metaphor of diversity provides a moral basis for inequality in Singapore.

This study is concerned in unfolding the will to power, and how specific values and outcomes are made desirable within Singapore’s education policies.

The authors argue for change to be driven exclusively by changing political economies as a simple and certain way forward, drawing on Nietzsche’s work on revaluation and trans valuation of values.

The main purpose of this study is to challenge the “taken-for-grantedness” that economic growth is the only way forward, and examine how this ideology dominates morality.

Talib and Fitzgerald’s analysis emphasizes that value judgements are continually at work in the policy discourse despite the level of meritocracy that the Singapore education system promotes. They consider whether it is in the interests of the Singapore people that ‘talents’ should get privileged access to knowledge as it is through this more opportunities for the rest of the population can be created.

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EU Provides €10 Million To Counter Radicalization In Sahel-Maghreb, Stem Flow Of Foreign Fighters

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Foreign terrorist fighters joining the ranks of Islamic State and other militias in the Middle East are a growing threat to many countries, inside and outside the EU. On this backdrop, the EU Commission is launching a new program to help partner countries to counter radicalization in the Maghreb countries and stem the flow of foreign fighters from North Africa, the Middle East and Western Balkans.

According to The High Representative and Vice-president Federica Mogherini, “Foreign fighters are a threat not only to the region but to the whole world. We need to increase our cooperation and support to partner countries, because terrorism is a common threat and we must fight it together. These programs are a further step implementing the EU commitment to work closer with countries from North Africa, the Middle East and Western Balkans.”

“Countries in the Middle East, North Africa and the Western Balkans are particularly concerned by the threat of foreign fighters and the radicalization of their young population. However, such phenomena do not respect borders and the international community therefore needs to support these countries in their efforts to stem the flow of foreign fighters and counter radicalization. The EU has allocated €10 million for a new program providing such support,” said Johannes Hahn, EU Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Negotiations.

Under the new program “Countering radicalization and Foreign Terrorist Fighters”, the EU will allocate a first tranche of €5 million to fund technical assistance to enhance the capacities of criminal justice officials to investigate, prosecute and adjudicate cases of foreign fighters or would-be foreign fighters.

The second tranche of 5 million euro will finance countering radicalization programs in the Sahel and Maghreb region. It will offer the possibility to non-state actors to implement activities in the field of media, education, religion, culture. Projects focusing on messaging, internet, social media, disengagement, and awareness-raising with social workers will also be considered as well as measures preventing the radicalization and recruitment of foreign fighters.

Today, the European Commission is also presenting its European Agenda on Security, where one of the priorities is preventing terrorism and countering radicalization. The Agenda will enable a better use of existing and new tools in this area by improving exchange of information and increasing cooperation between EU institutions and agencies, Member States and relevant stakeholders.

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Islamic State Theoreticians Have Honed Plans For Battle And A State – Analysis

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What is Islamic State’s (IS) political program? What is its ideology? Who are its theoreticians? The answers to these questions can be found in its propaganda.

IS has transformed from an ultra-minority party into one of the major political actors in the Middle East within a few months. It is tempting to explain this rapid evolution by the existence of a combination of favourable circumstances. Chief among these is the prolonged weakness of the Syrian and Iraqi governments, an obvious enabling factor for IS.

However, another major cause is less well known but equally decisive: the internal development of the organisation, which has been able to learn from the past failures of other jihadist movements and refine and sharpen its strategy.

Learning from many years of jihadist setbacks

The jihadists of IS are no small players. They follow a battle plan developed over many years by seasoned and experienced theoreticians. The British-American journalist Peter Bergen, who met the most famous of these, the Syrian Abu Musab al-Suri, in the 1990s, was highly impressed by him.

“He was tough and very smart,” the reporter recalls in an article published in the French daily Le Monde in April 2013. Bergen saw in al-Suri a real intellectual, well versed in history, who was very serious about his objectives. He was even more impressed by him than by Osama bin Laden.

Abu Musab al-Suri knows what he is talking about when it comes to armed struggle. His experience dates back to the Muslim Brotherhood uprising in Hama, Syria, and its bloody suppression in February 1982 by the troops of Hafez al-Assad, the father of President Bashar al-Assad.

Musab al-Suri, who was among these rebels, has spent the ensuing years writing a series of articles on the uprising’s strategic aspects. These articles focus on the major errors committed by the insurgents. These include a list of 17 “bitter lessons” for future jihadists.

Al-Suri says that the Muslim Brotherhood’s main mistake was not to develop its strategy sufficiently before launching the uprising. A second mistake was to share too little information about its ideology and goals. A third mistake was to rely too heavily on outside support and not sufficiently develop its own resources.

Mistake number four was to place too heavy a reliance on mass recruitment instead of identifying and winning over elite fighters. Mistake number five was to have launched a war of attrition against the Syrian regime rather than a combination of terrorist acts and guerrilla warfare.

This online video featuring a doctor is part of Islamic State’s strategy of projecting the creation of a new order.

IS project has solid foundations

The lessons drawn by Musab al-Suri have provided the basis for creating a politico-military project as solid as it is comprehensive. Today, IS follows many of al-Suri’s advices. It has refrained from depending on foreign aid and has developed its own financial resources through kidnapping and the sale of crude oil.

Its doctrine and objectives are also clearly explained to its fighters. Its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, momentarily came out of hiding on July 4, 2014, to present his views at the Great Mosque of al-Nuri in Mosul. His propaganda agencies broadcast news flashes on the internet.

After publishing several issues of IS Report, a periodical of only a few pages, IS began issuing in July of last year the online magazine Dabiq. This is a substantially more ambitious publication named after a small town in northern Syria where, according to Muslim tradition, a major battle will take place before the end of time. The IS also uses social networks intensively.

IS propaganda stresses the “oppression” and “humiliation” of which Muslims are victim throughout the world, but particularly in Western countries. It promises a final and liberating revenge for these humiliations. The first issue of Dabiq declared:

The time has come for those generations that were drowning in oceans of disgrace, being nursed on the milk of humiliation and being ruled by the vilest of all people, after their long slumber in the darkness of neglect – the time has come for them to rise.

Soon, by Allah’s permission, a day will come when the Muslim will walk everywhere as a master, having honour, being revered, with his head raised high and his dignity preserved … Whoever was heedless must now be alert. Whoever was sleeping must now awaken. Whoever was shocked and amazed must comprehend. The Muslims today have a loud, thundering statement, and possess heavy boots.

The ongoing war in Syria and Iraq is especially meaningful, as it is described as a throwback to heroic periods in the history of Islam. The setbacks suffered by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi are deemed to remind Muslims of those of the Prophet Muhammad, who was forced to leave Mecca and then defeated at the Battle of Uhud. The violence perpetrated by the IS jihadists is considered legitimate and is supposed to correspond with that of Abu Bakr, the successor of the Prophet and the first Caliph.

In addition to the “bitter lessons” learnt during the uprising at Hama, the jihadist theoreticians have another major source of inspiration, according to Michael W.S. Ryan of the Middle East Institute in Washington and one of the best experts on jihadist movements. They are well read in the history of modern Far Eastern and Western insurgency strategists, from Mao Zedong, Che Guevara and Vladimir Ilyich Lenin to Vo Nguyen Giap, Emiliano Zapata and Ho Chi Minh. In his seminal work The Call to Global Islamic Resistance, Abu Musab al-Suri writes that he has carefully read American journalist Robert Taber’s book on Fidel Castro’s guerrilla warfare strategy during the Cuban Revolution.

Dabiq magazine reflects these influences. Its first issue outlines a strategy to seize power through three steps reminiscent of the methods used by Maoist China. This strategy is also echoed by another influential jihadist theoretician, Abu Bakr Naji, who has presented his views in his book The Management of Savagery.

He argues that “Allah’s fighters” must continually attack the vital economic sectors of some key political regimes to incite these to concentrate all their forces in these areas. It will be then possible for the fighters to increase their presence in the periphery of these countries, forcing the enemy to multiply law enforcement actions to regain control of the lost ground.

‘Savagery’ has a particular purpose

This is when the second stage should begin, that of “savagery”, in which the violence will reach such a level that people will turn away from the government and be ready to join any force capable of restoring peace. Large parts of Iraq and Syria are now enduring this second stage, according to these theoreticians.

The third and last stage is the restoration of law (Sharia) and order through the establishment of a caliphate. Afghanistan is supposedly an example of a place where this final stage had taken place, with the coming to power of the Taliban after a long and bloody reign of local warlords.

This strategy, which is not unique to jihadism, implies that an explosion of violence will happen during the second phase of the insurgency. Jihadist theoreticians do not consider this bloodshed an act of wanton cruelty but a necessary means to achieve victory. Abu Bakr Naji chillingly writes in The Management of Savagery that jihadist fighters should “drag the masses into the battle”, which means that they must:

“make [that] battle very violent, such that death is a heartbeat away, so that the two groups will realise that entering this battle will frequently lead to death. That will be a powerful motive for the individual to choose to fight in the ranks of the people of truth in order to die well, which is better than dying for falsehood and losing both this world and the next.”

Focus is now on rebuilding lost base as caliphate

Jihadist movements share many common ideas, such as the rejection of democracy, nationalism and Western culture, but they are at loggerheads on strategy. Abu Musab al-Suri had some harsh words to say about Osama bin Laden and his taste for high-profile attacks on government institutions, security forces and symbolic buildings. He severely criticised the September 11 attacks, which, he believes, incurred the wrath of the United States against the Taliban in Afghanistan. This consequently denied the “holy war” its most precious territory and wasted the time of the jihadist movement. Fourteen years on, IS’s ambition is to rebuild this territory – though now in Syria and Iraq – in the shortest possible period by establishing a “caliphate”. This will become the central base for the spread of the international jihad.

Man claiming to be ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in this screenshot from video.

Al-Baghdadi speaking during Friday prayers at Great Mosque of al-Nuri in Mosul on July 4, 2014.

In this perspective, the putative caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has recently changed the IS’s focus from “savagery” to the onset of a new order. One of his current priorities is to establish, in places where the military situation is sufficiently stabilised, a number of public services: law and order, of course, but also trade networks, food supplies, education and health care.

This was the background to his July 2014 speech, which he sought to spread far and wide:

Oh Muslims, hasten to your new state. We make a special call to the scholars and callers, especially the judges, as well as people with military, administrative and service expertise, and medical doctors and engineers of all different specialisations and fields.

The Islamic State knows what it wants, and it is striving to put the new “caliphate” on a permanent footing.

This article appeared at The Conversation and is reprinted with permission.

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Challenging American Exceptionalism – OpEd

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President Barack Obama stood behind the podium and apologized for inadvertently killing two Western hostages – including one American – during a drone strike in Pakistan. Obama said, “one of the things that sets America apart from many other nations, one of the things that makes us exceptional, is our willingness to confront squarely our imperfections and to learn from our mistakes.” In his 2015 state of the union address, Obama described America as “exceptional.” When he spoke to the United Nations General Assembly in 2013, he said, “Some may disagree, but I believe that America is exceptional.”

American exceptionalism reflects the belief that Americans are somehow better than everyone else. This view reared its head after the 2013 leak of a Department of Justice White Paper that describes circumstances under which the President can order the targeted killing of U.S. citizens. There had been little public concern in this country about drone strikes that killed people in other countries. But when it was revealed that U.S. citizens could be targeted, Americans were outraged. This motivated Senator Rand Paul to launch his 13-hour filibuster of John Brennan’s nomination for CIA director.

It is this double standard that moved Nobel Peace Prize winner Archbishop Desmond Tutu to write a letter to the editor of the New York Times, in which he asked, “Do the United States and its people really want to tell those of us who live in the rest of the world that our lives are not of the same value as yours?” (When I saw that letter, I immediately invited Archbishop Tutu to write the foreword to my book, “Drones and Targeted Killing: Legal, Moral, and Geopolitical Issues.” He graciously agreed and he elaborates on that sentiment in the foreword).

Obama insists that the CIA and the U.S. military are very careful to avoid civilian casualties. In May 2013, he declared in a speech at the National Defense University, “before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured – the highest standard we can set.”

Nevertheless, of the nearly 3,852 people killed by drone strikes, 476 have reportedly been civilians. The Open Society Justice Initiative (OSJI), which examined nine drone strikes in Yemen, concluded that civilians were killed in every one. Amrit Singh, a senior legal officer at OSJI and primary author of the report, said “We’ve found evidence that President Obama’s standard is not being met on the ground.”

In 2013, the administration released a fact sheet with an additional requirement that “capture is not feasible” before a targeted killing can be carried out. Yet the OSJI also questioned whether this rule is being followed. Suspected terrorist Mohanad Mahmoud Al Farekh, a U.S. citizen, was on the Pentagon’s “kill list” but he was ultimately arrested by Pakistani security forces and will be tried in a U.S. federal court. “This is an example that capturing can be done,” according to Micah Zenko of the Council on Foreign Relations.

The fact sheet also specifies that in order to use lethal force, the target must pose a “continuing, imminent threat to U.S. persons.” But the leaked Justice Department White Paper says that a U.S. citizen can be killed even when there is no “clear evidence that a specific attack on U.S. persons and interests will take place in the immediate future.” This renders the imminency requirement a nullity. Moreover, if there is such a low bar for targeting a citizen, query whether there is any bar at all for killing foreigners.

There must also be “near certainty” that the terrorist target is present. Yet the CIA did not even know who it was slaying when the two hostages were killed. This was a “signature strike,” that targets “suspicious compounds” in areas controlled by “militants.” Zenko says, “most individuals killed are not on a kill list, and the [U.S.] government does not know their names.” So how can one determine with any certainty that a target is present when the CIA is not even targeting individuals?

Contrary to popular opinion, the use of drones does not result in fewer civilian casualties than manned bombers. A study based on classified military data, conducted by the Center for Naval Analyses and the Center for Civilians in Conflict, concluded that the use of drones in Afghanistan caused 10 times more civilian deaths than manned fighter aircraft.

Moreover, a panel with experienced specialists from both the George W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations issued a 77-page report for the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan think tank, which found there was no indication that drone strikes had advanced “long-term U.S. security interests.”

Nevertheless, the Obama administration maintains a double standard for apologies to the families of drone victims. “The White House is setting a dangerous precedent – that if you are western and hit by accident we’ll say we are sorry,” said Reprieve attorney Alka Pradhan, “but we’ll put up a stone wall of silence if you are a Yemeni or Pakistani civilian who lost an innocent loved one. Inconsistencies like this are seen around the world as hypocritical, and do the United States’ image real harm.”

It is not just the U.S. image that is suffering. Drone strikes create more enemies of the United States. While Faisal Shahzad was pleading guilty to trying to detonate a bomb in Times Square, he told the judge, “When the drones hit, they don’t see children.”

Americans are justifiably outraged when we hear about ISIS beheading western journalists. Former CIA lawyer Vicki Divoll, who now teaches at the U.S. Naval Academy, told the New Yorker’s Jane Mayer in 2009, “People are a lot more comfortable with a Predator [drone] strike that kills many people than with a throat-slitting that kills one.” But Americans don’t see the images of the drone victims or hear the stories of their survivors. If we did, we might be more sympathetic to the damage our drone bombs are wreaking in our name.

Drone strikes are illegal when conducted off the battlefield. They should be outlawed. Obama, like Bush before him, opportunistically defines the whole world as a battlefield.

The guarantee of due process in the U.S. Constitution as well as in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights must be honored, not just in its breach. That means arrest and fair trial, not summary execution. What we really need is a complete reassessment of Obama’s continuation of Bush’s “war on terror.” Until we overhaul our foreign policy and stop invading other countries, changing their regimes, occupying, torturing and indefinitely detaining their people, and uncritically supporting other countries that illegally occupy other peoples’ lands, we will never be safe from terrorism. 

 

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Saudi Arabia: Police Foiled Suicide Car Bombing Plot Against US Embassy

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Security forces have foiled several plots to carry out attacks across the kingdom and arrested 93 suspected Islamic State jihadis, the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Interior said on Tuesday.

The arrests have taken place since December and most of those detained were Saudis, the MOI said in a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).

Among those arrested were two Syrians and a Saudi citizen, who planned a suicide car bombing against the US Embassy in Riyadh last month, the statement said.

Of the 93 detained suspects, 65 were Saudis, it said.

Earlier Tuesday, the MOI announced the arrest of a second suspect in the April 8 shooting death of two policemen, which had been blamed on the Islamic State.

Nawaf bin Sharif Samir Al-Anzi was cornered at a camp in Rumah governorate in Riyadh province at dawn Tuesday, following a tip.
During the raid, Anzi opened fire, prompting security forces to respond and subsequently arrest him, said a ministry statement posted on its website. Anzi was wounded while none of the arresting officers were harmed, it said.

The suspect had a SR1-million ($267,000) reward for his capture, in connection with several other cases, police said.

Police on Friday said they had arrested Yazeed bin Mohammed Abdurrahman Abu Nian, the partner of Anzi in shooting at a security patrol on April 8 in an eastern district of Riyadh, causing the martyrdom of the patrol commander and his companion.

Authorities have said Yazid bin Mohammed, 23, allegedly confessed that he was following orders received from the Islamic State, the extremist group that has seized large parts of Syria and Iraq.

The ministry statement said the suspects even filmed the attack.

Authorities said they seized three bomb-laden cars during investigations into the killings.

The shooting was the fifth attack on security forces and foreigners in Saudi Arabia orchestrated by IS, according to interior ministry spokesman General Mansour Al-Turki.

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Nepal Challenge – Analysis

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By C. Raja Mohan*

New Delhi did well to respond decisively when tragedy struck Nepal. But India is at the very beginning of a long and demanding process of delivering relief to victims, assisting their rehabilitation and contributing to the reconstruction of Nepal. While Kathmandu is now being flooded with media and relief teams from around the world, the cameras will soon leave Nepal. The world’s attention will turn to the next crisis. But India must stick around for the long haul.

Geographic proximity, cultural intimacy and economic interdependence means Nepal’s problems are also India’s. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is aware of this reality and has devoted special attention to revitalising ties after he took charge as PM. Nepal is the only country Modi has visited twice. On both occasions, he underlined the unique bond between the two countries.

If there was a moment to lend substance to the claim that the neighbourhood ranks first in India’s foreign policy, it is now and in Nepal. Signalling goodwill is easy, as Modi did immediately. He must now follow through and initiate a comprehensive strategy to support Nepal’s rapid recovery. This will involve a significant commitment of resources. Even more important is a credible long-term strategy for Indian participation in Nepal’s efforts to rise from the rubble. Central to that is the political recognition that any framework for external assistance must be supportive of, but subordinate to, the initiatives of the Nepali people.

Disaster politics

It is a matter of time before politics intrudes on the management of the aftermath. Delhi must be acutely conscious of two pitfalls. The Indian government must avoid any real or seeming violation of Nepal’s sovereignty. In humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, India has insisted on absolute respect for the host government. It should not forget that principle. Most political elites are touchy about external assistance during a national calamity. The political classes in Kathmandu are even touchier, especially when it comes to India’s role. India has much goodwill among Nepal’s people. But Delhi could easily squander it by being politically insensitive.

Delhi must also insulate its relief effort from India’s domestic politics. Nepal has long been a tempting theatre for various Indian groups to play their own political games. It is essential for the government to stay on top of the discourse. Given the long-term commitments involved, Modi must reach out to all parties and take them into confidence on India’s aid strategy. Equally important is the need to draw in the chief ministers of the states bordering Nepal. That fits in with the PM’s emphasis on federalism, as well as the challenges that Nepal and its neighbouring Indian regions share.

Regional cooperation

Delhi must not forget that the crisis in Nepal is not just about India and its support for a special neighbour. Many countries and international institutions will be involved in assisting Nepal. Instead of thinking in exclusive terms, Delhi must actively promote greater regional and international cooperation in rebuilding Nepal.

Although Saarc has agreements on disaster management, they have not really been effective. Delhi must focus on accelerating sub-regional cooperation between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal. India must also engage China, Europe and America on making the Himalayan regions less vulnerable to natural disasters. Beijing has often talked about a triangular trans-Himalayan cooperation among India, Nepal and China. As Modi prepares to travel to China, this is an opportune moment to explore that proposition.

*The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation and a Contributing Editor for ‘The Indian Express’

Courtesy : The Indian Express, April 28, 2015

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Rehabilitation Or Repatriation? EU Taking A Call On Mediterranean Migrant Crisis – OpEd

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By Aishwarya Dhakarey

The incident in the Mediterranean was undeniably unfortunate: what propelled the migration of those who were slain, is very disturbing. The deaths of migrants in the Mediterranean dissect the nuances of the humanitarian crisis. People are baiting everything they have to get away from war torn Arab Nations in the hope of finding peace. As if this is not enough, the countries which should be welcoming them (Italy, Greece and Spain) are turning deaf ears to their cry, thanks to their internal reservations on what they perceive as the growing Islamization of Europe. Amidst all this, there are people on the coast who are helping these migrants to get off board safely into their territory. The tragic incident gives rise to few (unsettling) questions:

Should Public International Law reconsider its policies on migration (especially EU) or should it take a proactive role in better crisis management and resettlement or rehabilitation? Is the Triton Border Protection a minimalist measure by EU countries? Until what point of time would the EU countries, allow the immigration? Is there a need to bring an overhaul in the EU asylum laws and migration policies? What roles can the UNCHR and International Immigration Office play to deal with the current state of affairs? How can states prevent the entry of smugglers in these countries? Will it ever be possible for Arab Countries to get rid of war-like situations and come to peace?

For starters, this is not the first incident – one might recall the capsizing of boats full of African migrants near Lempudsa Island off Italian coast in 2013.[1] The most viable way to avoid legal hindrances is to go through the illegal route by charting sea routes as a part of the criminal gang, smugglers and traffickers. Mixed illegal migrations are banned, but death can never be the desired outcome. It is an uphill task to find answers to the string of questions at one go. But, what one can do is to observe and analyze what has already been done. Italy has tried to enforce formal agreements aimed at preventing illegal migrants from leaving their countries of origin, with little success.[2] What has already been done by countries like Italy hints at the need to provide greater protection to refugees. Mare Nostrum was launched in the aftermath of the Lempudsa incident aiming at search and rescue of the victims, Operation Triton replacing it focuses on border protection now.[3] However, the concern remains as to how irregular migrants will be rehabilitated, now that they are faced with the challenge of non-grant of asylum or refugee status.

Repatriations will happen but their problems can never be solved with such an attempt as their war-striven homelands do not seem to assuage their troubles. What worries the EU is also the insurgency by the illegal traffickers. But that should come much later on the action list.

Another contentious issue is the safety of these channels in the future. This is a daunting task for the EU. Mass movements of smugglers happen despite the existing security and border protection deployment. The EU border agency, Frontex, and the national police are already empowered to track and stop gangs in European territorial waters.[1] But, monitoring of illegal traffickers and their activities seems to be weak.

In the meantime, unless the cause is identified and worked on, the crisis of migrants’ exodus or displacement will continue to harass the world. Global security and conflict free regions, become the priority but seem like a less attainable one. Secondly, when one talks about repatriation, the underlying legal obligations of the nations seem to be forgotten. Time and again, supranational entities like EU have failed to recognize and consider this. As a matter of fact, there have been highly inconsistent plans with international human rights law and refugee and asylum laws by these entities. It’s high time we realized that the Mediterranean refugee crisis is not a regional displacement crisis but a global displacement one. ‘Responsibility sharing’, I reckon, is the key word here.

[1] EU steps up war on people-traffickers in Mediterranean, BBC NEWS, 17 March 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31923143
[1] Christopher Emsden, Migrant ship sinks off Italian Island, Killing Dozens, WSJ, 4 October, 2013 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304906704579112780913552604
[2] Ibid
[3] EU leaders agree to triple Triton funding in response to Mediterranean migrant crisis, DW, 23 April, 2015, http://www.dw.de/eu-leaders-agree-to-triple-triton-funding-in-response-to-mediterranean-migrant-crisis/a-18405373

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Spain’s Minister Soria Travels To Shanghai To Support Spanish Companies In China

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Spain’s Minister for Industry, Energy and Tourism, José Manuel Soria, visited the new Cepsa chemical plant in Shanghai on Tuesday, the company’s first industrial plant in Asia.

This visit forms part of a trip by the Minister for Industry to Shanghai aimed at supporting the investments being made by Spanish companies with projects in China. The Spanish minister also met with representatives from a number of these companies.

The plant will produce phenols (together with acetone and cumene) for the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, as well as for the automotive sector, mobile telephony sector, etc. It will have a production capacity of 250,000 tonnes/year. Estimates suggest this will provide more than 10% of total consumption in China.

José Manuel Soria said the opening of this plant highlights the strength of Spanish companies in China. He believes that, “China has completely transformed itself in recent decades, while Spanish companies have responded flexibly to these changes and adapted perfectly to new conditions”.

The Spanish minister also visited the general assembly plant of COMAC, a partly Spanish State-owned company whose main purpose is to introduce and coordinate programmes for the manufacture of large passenger aircraft in China, as well as to develop the Chinese civil aviation industry. It is a major client for various Spanish companies. During the visit, the minister met with executives from COMAC and various Spanish companies in the aeronautical sector.

Finally, José Manuel Soria attended a meeting with various Spanish companies organised by the Official Chamber of Commerce of Spain in China. At this meeting, which was attended by the President of the Chamber of Commerce and the Spanish Ambassador to China, the minister conveyed the Government of Spain’s support for these companies and enquired after their projects.

José Manuel Soria said that China is a swiftly changing market that has been enormously dynamic in the last 30 years. He also congratulated Spanish companies and entrepreneurs in China for having correctly responded to this lively environment with such flexibility.

Furthermore, during his visit to Shanghai, the Spanish minister took the opportunity to meet with the Deputy Chairman of China Eastern Airlines, Shan Chuanbo, with whom he discussed the possibility of opening up new direct routes between Shanghai and Spain. José Manuel Soria believes that the eight flights currently operated between China and Spain could be increased, with the corresponding enormous potential for Chinese tourism in Spain.

Before flying to Shanghai, the Spanish minister also travelled to the United Arab Emirates over the weekend, where he attended a meeting with companies operating in the country to hear about their plans.

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Bumblebee Genome Mapped

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Bumblebees are considered peaceful and industrious creatures, and their commercial value has increased in the wake of the decline of honeybees around the world. The bees are therefore now bred on a large scale and used as pollinators for economically valuable crops. Yet, these cute little, buzzing creatures, of which there are around 250 different species worldwide, is doing poorly in some places. The large shadow cast by the honeybee collapse has distracted from the fact that in recent years in the US as well as in other areas some previously common bumblebee species have also become rare or endangered, or disappeared altogether.

For this reason, two former ETH researchers, Seth Barribeau and Ben Sadd, together with Professor Paul Schmid-Hempel from the group for experimental ecology, started a bumblebee genome project eight years ago. The objective of the project was to analyse the genomes of two commercially important species: the European Buff-tailed Bumblebee, Bombus terrestris, and its American counterpart, the Common Eastern Bumblebee Bombus impatiens. The researchers were hoping that the genomic data would shed light on the biology, ecology and evolution of the bumblebee more generally.

Immune genes analyzed

Barribeau, Sadd and 80 other researchers from around the world paid particular attention to the genes of the immune system. Evolutionary biologists, ecologists, bioinformaticians, and geneticists were involved in the project. The researchers also compared the genomes of the two bumblebee species with genomes of other insects that had already been mapped, such as the honeybee, the parasitoid wasp Nasonia and fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster. The scientists recently published their findings in the scientific journal Genome Biology.

The genomes of the two bumblebee species strongly resemble each other and contain about 20,000 different genes on 18 chromosomes. The scientists discovered that only a small fraction of these are genes involved in the immune response. In fact, the genetic repertoire of the immune system in the two bumblebee species has only about 150 genes, a relatively small portion compared with flies or mosquitoes – Drosophila has twice as many. The honeybee and parasitoid wasp (Nasonia), on the other hand, have only a small immunogenetic repertoire, too.

Social organization plays little role in immunity

Schmid-Hempel is puzzled that the bumblebee, which exhibits relatively weak social organization, has just as few immune genes as the honeybee, with its complex social organization. He says that until now researchers had assumed that insects with a high degree of social organization could afford to invest less in their immune system. In turn, a simple social system would promote a stronger individual defense. This previous theory suggested that highly social insects had other ways to ward off pathogens than to rely solely on their individual immune defenses – for example, defense cooperation such as mutual body care.

Schmid-Hempel thinks that the weak immune system of the honeybee and bumblebee could be related to their diet: flies and fruit flies such as Drosophila melanogaster eat from surfaces such as rotten fruit, which are contaminated with bacteria and fungus, whereas bees eat from relatively clean food sources, such as plant pollen and nectar. This should reduce the risk of infection and thus the selective pressure for a well-developed immune system.

But it is more than just a weak immune system that has been making the lives of bumblebees (and honeybees) difficult lately. The researchers were able to identify only very few genes that regulate the body’s mechanism for detoxification. According to Schmid-Hempel, this would at least be in line with the worry that these insects are sensitive to environmental toxins, such as agricultural pesticides.

Genetic differences shed light on ecology

The genetic analysis has, however, also revealed significant differences between the honeybee and bumblebee. For example, the bumblebee has more genes that contribute to taste, whereas the honeybee has more that contribute to the sense of smell.

This makes sense as the bumblebee relies on its sense of taste to find food, testing with its tongue virtually every flower. In contrast, the honeybee relies more on odors to find the right food, as it plays a role in the waggle dance, which honeybees use to communicate the presence of a good food source to each other. “This fundamental difference in the way these two bees live is clearly reflected in their genes,” explained Schmid-Hempel.

No social gene

The researchers were surprised to find that they were able to associate relatively few specific genes to social organization and behavior. “The genes for this don’t differ very much between bumblebees and honeybees,” said Schmid-Hempel. But the scientists did discover different sets of micro-RNAs, tiny snippets of ribonucleic acids, in these insects. These miRNAs regulate genes by blocking gene copies, which serve as blueprints for proteins in the cells. It is specifically this type of gene regulation that seemingly takes a ‘normal’, primitively social insect, such as the bumblebee, and transforms it into a highly social organism like the honeybee.

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UNHCR And Partners Help Sea Crossing Survivors In Libya Detention Centers

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As Europe responds to the problem of dangerous mixed migration flows across the Mediterranean, the UN refugee agency and its partners have been assisting hundreds of people in Libya rescued at sea or intercepted by the coastguard.

UNHCR has been able to help some of the 1,242 people picked up in Libyan waters and mostly taken to immigration detention centres since mid-April. A series of deadly capsizings since mid-April has focused global attention on the risks refugees and migrants are willing to take to reach Europe.

Those taken to detention centres in Libya include a group of more than 200 people from the Horn of Africa intercepted at Tajura (16 kilometres east of Tripoli). Four of them, including a two-year-old boy and his mother, had serious burn injuries caused by an exploding gas cylinder before they set off to cross to Europe on a smuggler’s boat.

“UNHCR is aware of at least 2,663 migrants or asylum-seekers (including women and children) spread across eight immigration detention facilities across Libya run by the Department for Combatting Illegal Migration (DCIM) – a significant increase from the 1,455 people in detention a month ago,” spokesperson Ariane Rummery said Tuesday.

“The main nationalities in the centres are Somalis, Eritreans, Ethiopians and Sudanese as well as people from various West African countries. UNHCR understands that 15 immigration centres are now operational across the country,” she told journalists in Geneva.

Foreigners in Libya can be arrested for lack of lawful immigration status and can spend anything from one week to 12 months in detention. “UNHCR can generally organize the release of refugees and asylum-seekers registered with our office within a few days, although our capacity to register new arrivals to Libya is limited in the current security environment. We also advocate for the release of very vulnerable people, like pregnant women, and also for alternatives to detention, if possible,” Ariane explained.

UNHCR’s local staff and partners who visit immigration detention centres say conditions are poor, with urgent needs for more medical help, improved ventilation and sanitation as well as basic relief items. With the rate of detention on the rise, overcrowding compounds already tough conditions.

In some centres, more than 50 people are crowded into rooms designed for half that number. Temperatures are on the rise, as are the mosquitos which could spread disease. At the request of local authorities, UNHCR is helping to ease the dire conditions and distributing soap, clothing and other items to detainees in eight centres.

There are some 36,000 refugees and asylum-seekers registered with UNHCR in Libya (though some may have moved on) and affected by the growing violence and lawlessness. The largest group are Syrians. But despite the volatile situation, UNHCR continues to help refugees and asylum-seekers, working through national staff and NGO partners.

“We run two community development centres in Tripoli and Benghazi and have also expanded outreach this year through a mobile medical and social team in Tripoli. We also run dedicated hotlines to help people get registered, receive cash assistance, renew documents, or who are in detention. We are setting up another hotline with the Libyan coastguard to receive search-and-rescue updates,” UNHCR’s Rummery said.

Meanwhile, UNHCR continues to deliver aid like mattresses, blankets, clothing and kitchen utensils to thousands of internally displaced Libyans, and is supporting municipal authorities to track displacement and assess needs. Some 400,000 Libyans have been displaced by various waves of violence, according to UN figures.

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Have Natural Gas Prices Bottomed? – Analysis

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By Leonard Brecken

Last Friday we finally got confirmation of where all the natural gas supply has been coming from as Cabot (COG) reported its earnings. Just like Chesapeake (CHK), they reduced natural gas output, but on a much grander scale. CHK has yet to report and will do so on May 6th providing even more color on the subject.

Last month they announced a 2% reduction in NGAS volumes to 1-3% for 2015 vs. 3-5%. But the ramp up of supply from Marcellus, and to a lesser extent Utica, and a corresponding flat to up rig count in natural gas rigs in those areas appears to be the reason why NGAS has crashed some 30% despite a relatively cold winter in the mid-west and East especially. The magnitude of the supply increase is simply stunning, begging the question: what was Cabot’s management thinking by increasing NGAS production in Marcellus by some 40% to 162 BCF in 1Q15 and up 12.5% sequentially from 4Q14? And, to boot, 4Q14 was up over 13% sequentially from 3Q14!

Source: Company Data

Source: Company Data

The Marcellus region began ramping up in 2010 which has resulted in a surge in production which has probably peaked 1Q15 in terms of rate of growth. It has by far contributed to the largest increases in output and has signal handily resulted in the crash in prices.

With spot prices hovering around $2.45/MMBTU and within 10% of the most bearish estimate targets this quarter, it seems the worst of the oversupply is behind the market especially with EPA rules forcing coal to NGAS switching in volume this summer. Coal still represents the majority of fuel used to generate electricity despite this trend.

The cut backs in production growth and higher demand will eventually balance the market which, mind you, is not that out of balance. We are still 6% or so below the 5 year storage average, but the short sightedness of traders, as was the case in oil markets, appears to have repeated again in the NGAS markets as both react to short term signals vs. discounting the fundamentals to come.

We are not forecasting a bull market in natural gas by any means but on top of what was already mentioned, LNG and gas exports are rising; especially Mexican NGAS which will further tighten the market. Since traders work on what is incremental, with supply waning and demand increasing sentiment should soon reverse and prices should rise over $3.00 in 2H15. Just like in oil, NGAS prices have overshot and practically all incremental new wells ex NE are not profitable at current spot or, if they are IRRs, are under 20%.

Producers are no longer receiving NGL subsidies from high prices in areas like Eagle Ford to justify new drilling as NGL prices hover in mid-teens. One thing to watch for is the rise of oil above $60 which will open the threat to more oil coming, thus reopening the potential for more NGAS supply as a byproduct. However with futures markets net short in terms of open contracts it won’t be long that short term traders will sense the tide is turning.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Have-Natural-Gas-Prices-Bottomed.html

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A Hillary Clinton Presidency Would Likely Bust Wide Open Debate On China’s Involvement In Africa – OpEd

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Africa must beware of ‘new colonialism’ as China extends ties there and focus instead on partners able to help build productive capacity on the continent, said Hillary Clinton during her term as Secretary of State on a visit to Zambia in 2011. This statement lays bare America’s general disapproval of China’s growing influence in Africa at its expense, as the Americans see Sino-African relations as largely exploitative with Africa being the disadvantaged partner.

The US, they argue have the continent’s interests at heart and want to work for sustainable development in Africa, a concept far off China’s radar the Americans contend. Having recently announced her candidacy for the race for the White House in 2016, and having a chance of winning the election, would a Hillary Clinton Presidency signal a turning of the tide for relations between China, the USA and Africa?

Over the years, Africa has become China’s stomping ground. It’s jaw-dropping investments are strewn all over the continent from the southern Cape to Cairo. You’d be forgiven for thinking that the mandarins in Beijing are picking up from where Cecil John Rhodes left off, and fulfilling his Cape to Cairo dream, albeit not for Her Majesty – the Queen, but for its over 1 billion population.

From the era of President Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping’s current reign, the intentions of the Chinese are as clear as day – establish a strong foothold in Africa and enjoy its resources – period! And what more of a symbolic sign to mark its growing presence on the continent, than the new imposing African Union Headquarters in Ethiopia financed by the Chinese to the tune of US$ 200 million.

America, the global power that it is, has slowly ceded its hold on Africa, especially as the Chinese economy has grown in leaps and bounds. No doubt, currently and particularly after the events of the financial crisis of 2007-08, Africa can be likened to the cute girl every boy wants to ask out for a date at the high school prom dance. Africa has been labelled as the last frontier for economic growth, spurred on by rising urbanization, affluence levels and population growth, all of which make the continent a haven for handsome investment returns. In our small analogy, America and China represent the two most popular boys in the school, who will employ every trick in the book to out manoeuvre the other and win the prom date.

It appears that China has been emerging as the victor in this conquest for a claim on Africa’s riches. But for how much longer will this trend carry on? What is likely going to cause a turning of the tables, one may ask? The answer which is still a remote possibility comes in hushed tones, in the form of a Hillary Clinton Presidency.
The former US Secretary of State, came close to winning the race for the White House, and in many ways is now a stronger candidate for the job as the “leader of the free world.” Granted, there are many unknowns in politics, and the elections are still many months away. Not only does she have to fend off threats from her fellow compatriots and win the Democratic nomination, but she also has to defeat the Republican candidate, who might come in the form of Jeb Bush – brother to President George W.  Bush. Paddy Power, the Irish bookmaker gives Mrs Clinton a formidable 91% likelihood that she will capture the race for the White House in 2016. And with the Clinton campaign machine in overdrive, the USA might very well have its first female President in 2016.

Now, what does all this mean for Africa bearing in mind the twist that relations between America and Africa have taken over the years, in the wake of ‘blossoming’ Sino-Africa ties? Will Hillary Clinton ,if in fact she does become the American President, take a deeper interest in building ties with Africa? Though having African roots President Obama has been often criticized of neglecting Africa throughout his Presidency. Many on the continent hoped his African heritage would make him focus more on Africa. But these African expectations remain largely unmet, in the absence of notable Africa centered policies and initiatives during his term. Except maybe for the last ditch three-day US-Africa Leaders Summit last year in which discussions on boosting trade between America and Africa were one of the major talking points.

One common accusation that has been leveled against America and cited as the major reason for losing its grip on Africa has been its continued focus on aid at the expense of trade. In 2009, China surpassed America as Africa’s largest trading partner and during the latest conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) announced a credit line of US$20 billion to Africa. To put this into context, over the last decade, though US-Africa trade has doubled from US$50 billion to US$110 billion, China-Africa trade has surged from just US$10 billion to US$200 billion in the same period. Whether this trend remains the same will depend on the stance the new White House incumbent adopts.

Will Hillary Clinton offer a better alternative to what China has brought to the table for Africa? China has been ostracized by the West for allegedly plundering Africa’s resources for its own benefit. This is an accusation the Chinese have vigorously denied. The West accuses China of questionable human rights practices and not promoting democracy on the continent.

However, a drastic change in policy and perception by the Americans will be needed to reverse the trend of them losing their clout in Africa. With the same vigor and intent that she took to lecture Africa on the potential pitfalls of being in bed with the Chinese, Hillary Clinton would need to apply that effort in actually building something tangible for Africa to see. For all their alleged misgivings, the Chinese have built roads, bridges, hospitals, and railway lines on the continent – all of which are essential economic enablers for growth. The same holier-than-thou rhetoric has not worked before from the lips of President Obama, neither will it work coming from Mrs Clinton’s.

Tensions between the two super-powers have been high with accusations and counter-accusations flying between them. Undoubtedly, this is a subject that Hillary Clinton feels strongly about especially judging from her tone during her visit to Africa as Secretary of State, where she launched veiled attacks on the Chinese and their involvement In Africa. Should she win the 2016 Presidential race, Hillary Clinton will have to up the ante, where her predecessors have failed and get America’s hands dirty in its participation in Africa’s growth story. This is evidently something the Chinese have been all too willing to do as compared to the Americans.

In the mean-time however, Africa will gladly stand aside and watch the competing ‘imperialists’ in action, allowing the objects of interest to play them off against one another.

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Learning From Beijing: Tackling Delhi’s Air Pollution Challenge – Analysis

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By Avinash Godbole

As recent data shows, Delhi has the worst air pollution among all the world capitals.1 Delhi had earned this dubious distinction at the start of the 21st Century as well, when air pollution reached a peak. However, judicial intervention, a quick overhaul of the public transport system, improvements in the road network, establishment of the subway network and accelerated implementation of fuel and emission standards had helped the city to achieve cleaner air in a relatively short span of time. But these gains have been offset in less than two decades by a number of other factors. First, higher rates of economic growth and greater disposable income, the availability of easy credit and the resultant onset of consumerism, and better roads have also led to Delhi emerging with the highest concentration of motor vehicles in the country. Second, a frenzy of construction activity, often in violation of the ecological norms set by the National Green Tribunal has considerably contributed to growing levels of air pollution. Third, the non-completion of roads that allow trucks to bypass the city has meant that nearly 80,000 trucks cross Delhi every night.2 Put together, all these have led to a considerable worsening of the city’s air pollution once again.

Beijing went through a similar cycle of air pollution from 1998-99 to 2013. While it did manage to control the air pollution challenge until 2011, since then some of the worst instances of air pollution have recurred in the city especially during winter. This indicates that the solution to a city’s air pollution does not only lie just within its territorial limits. In this context, it is important to consider what Delhi can learn from Beijing, both in terms of what the latter did and failed to do. India and China cooperate at the bilateral as well as multilateral levels on climate change. These two large developing Asian countries could and should cooperate on environmental issues and specifically on clean urbanization because there is scope to develop a shared understanding of the problems and solutions.

Both Beijing and Delhi moved polluting industries outside the core city limits as a first response to their air pollution problem. Beijing chose the fourth and later the sixth ring road as the limit within which polluting industries cannot operate. It also made concerted efforts to eliminate in-house coal burning and ran campaigns to convince residents to change their domestic heating systems from coal to electric ones. This is something that Delhi can replicate in terms of raising awareness about the harm of open-air fires and promoting the use of more efficient electric heating systems. Beijing also banned the use of coal-fired ovens in the city’s kitchens. Would Delhi be able to do something similar with regard to the tandoor? It is important to note in this context that electric tandoors are already available in the market. Additionally, small and medium enterprises producing these electric tandoors could and should be encouraged with tax exemptions to bring down the price and make it attractive for users.

Beijing also benefits from China’s national action plan on energy efficiency, which first targeted the top 1,000 industries based on energy demand to reduce their energy intensity. This resulted in a nearly 25 per cent reduction in energy demand from these industries. And the plan was subsequently extended to the top 10,000 industries. In addition, the retrofitting and closure of a number of thermal power plants also helped given that Beijing is practically surrounded by mega industrial townships and large thermal power plants. India has an element of energy efficiency built into its national action plan on climate change. While energy auditing of industry and labelling of consumer durables for their energy efficiency has been undertaken with some success, the outcome of the national mission for enhanced energy efficiency is not clear as yet.
The innovative use of social media was another factor that contributed to Beijing’s environmental clean-up. This was actually initiated by the US Embassy in Beijing, which started monitoring and sharing the city’s air pollution levels on its twitter handle. For this purpose, the US Embassy in Beijing used PM 2.5 indices long before the city authorities officially adopted the measure. In fact, once when pollution level crossed the 500 mark, it was shared with the tag “crazy-bad”, which became global news. Beijing’s first reaction then was to question the US Embassy’s motivation in doing so.3 Second, it went on to challenge the latter’s right to do so, calling the practice an infringement of sovereignty. And third, it pleaded that China was still a developing country and needed time to adopt advanced standards. But Beijing eventually came around and adopted the PM 2.5 based monitoring for air pollution. Even as it officially began to use the “clear sky days” indicator which was unscientific and perception-based, one blogger simply took daily pictures of the Beijing skyline and put it up on the social media. Ultimately, the contrast between the official version and the blogger’s version was out there for everyone to see. The resulting social pressure compelled the city administration to swing into action faster.

One interesting way in which Beijing attempted to clean up its environment was by using environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs). China has many environmental NGOs that have used their initial mandate of educating the citizen to create a niche for themselves. NGOs often collaborate with the media to increase awareness, expose defaulter organizations and official corruption that allowed environmentally harmful practices to continue. For its part, India too has to become more innovative in using NGOs for tackling the pollution challenge. It needs to take a fresh look at the role played by NGOs like Greenpeace in this respect.

Like Delhi, Beijing has a huge appetite for private cars. The number of private cars in Beijing has increased exponentially in the last two decades, from one million in 1997 to more than five million in 2012. However, restrictions on ownership, expensive auctions for number plates and a complete ban on diesel vehicles have meant that owning and using a car in Beijing is no longer easy. The question is whether Delhi would be able to undertake such measures to control its air pollution challenge. In this context, the recent decision of the National Green Tribunal banning diesel vehicles that are more than ten years old is a welcome step. However, whether there would be a larger policy change with reference to diesel cars in the NCR region is a different issue altogether, as the automobile sector in India is one of the drivers of economic growth.

India has recently announced its own Air Quality Index (AQI) as a first step towards ensuring cleaner air. India’s AQI is an average-based measurement, which means that pollution is likely to be underreported due to the averaging out of the worst case hours. Linking AQI data with restrictions on private vehicles like odd and even number days that can halve the number of vehicles on the street, a reduction in fares coupled with the increased availability of public transport, and declaring holidays for schools when pollution crosses hazardous levels are some of the measures that Beijing has adopted. These are also measures that could be replicated in Delhi.

Ultimately, Delhi and Beijing are the megacity capitals of two large developing Asian countries. They can learn from each other in the areas of clean development, energy efficiency, river water treatment, solid waste management, fertilizer and pesticide control. Cleaning up the environment is the easiest area to begin with. In particular, access to affordable clean technology has been a clear challenge for both countries. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is slated to visit Beijing in May 2015 and developing bilateral environmental cooperation as part of his smart city initiative or Make in India policy should find a place on his agenda. India-China environmental cooperation would be a good start for their developmental partnership and benefit both countries in the long run.

1 Rishi Iyengar (2014), “New Delhi, the World’s Most Polluted City, is Even More Polluted than We realized,” Time, 27 November 2014, Accessed 7 April 2015, URL: http://time.com/3608534/india-new-delhi-worlds-most-polluted-city/

2 Pritha Chatterjee et. al. (2015), “While you are sleeping: 80,000 trucks enter Delhi every night, poison on wheels,” Indian Express, 3 April, Accessed 22 April 2015, URL: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/while-you-are-sleeping-80000-trucks-enter-delhi-every-night-poison-on-wheels/

3 Peter Ford (2012), “China to US Embassy, Stop telling people how bad the air is in Beijing,” The Christian Science Monitor, 5 June 2012, Accessed 7 April 2015, URL: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2012/0605/China-to-US-embassy-Stop-telling-people-how-bad-the-air-is-in-Beijing

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/LearningfromBeijingAirPollutionChallenge_agodbole_270415.html

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Why Force Alone Can’t Win War On Terror In Pakistan – OpEd

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By Syed Hasanat Shah*

Rampant and violent terrorism has long become the hallmark of Pakistan, however, the massacre of innocent children in Pakistan;s Army Public School in Peshawar on December 16 wrote a new leaf of brutality in the violent history of terror in Pakistan. The cold-blooded murder of 140 children shocked the nation and the pain was felt across the globe.

Probably this was not the last time that the media savvy terrorists grabbed the headlines at the pile of helpless victims and successfully transmitted the fear of terror far and beyond the intended target. However, it was the first time that an act of terror opened the eyes of apologists and confused policy makers to the brutality of terror. The unmatched cruelty infused an equally unprecedented unity among the politicians, armed forces and common people to call enough is enough. Within a few hours after the massacre, political leadership and armed forces unequivocally vowed a swift and decisive action to defeat terrorism in all forms and manifestations. After a consensus of decisive action, a moratorium on capital punishment for terrorists was revoked and the main culprit in attacks on GHQ and former general were executed in a first phase. The operation in Waziristan also intensified where Pakistani Air Force pounded the hideouts of militant’s organization and key terror suspects were reportedly killed.

It took policy makers 20 long years, 50 thousand precious lives and $50 billion to identify the real enemy and realize that the biggest threat is ticking within, rather than across the boundaries of Pakistan. In the meanwhile, the seeds of terror sowed by the Zia regime and pruned by Musharaf in both the good and bad, to ensure strategic depth, have sucked sufficient blood out of the nation to become a sprawling thorny tree. Therefore, the physical existence of Taliban in our file and ranks after enjoying impunity for years is the tip of iceberg.

The real challenge for the state to wipe-out terrorism and restore writ is to address the ideology of Talibanization that has been spreading at the fuel of poverty, injustice, lack of transparency and self denial.

Upon this backdrop the question is: Can force alone address the problem of terrorism in Pakistan. To address this issue, I hope the policy makers will not wait for thousands more to lay down their lives or billions of dollars to perish, nor will they count on another U-turn.

Past experience is evidence that just challenging the terrorists has not served Pakistan well. Pakistan needs a multi-pronged counterterrorism policy to decapitate the mass killing ability of terrorists as a top priority. Following are a few important factors that need to be addressed if Pakistan wants to win the war on terror and reverse the process of extremism once and for all.

Economic Factors: Poverty and unemployment are the two important parameters of socio-economic status of a country. In Pakistan, 40 percent of the population lives on less than a dollar a day and 25 percent of the youth are unemployed. The unofficial poverty and unemployment rate goes up to 50 and 40 percent respectively in the federally administered tribal belt, the epicenter of terrorism in Pakistan.

Enhancing the economic status of socially excluded and vulnerable groups can break the vicious circle of both, terrorism and under-development in Pakistan. Otherwise the socially and economically aggrieved are more likely to engage in terrorism and live to or die for a purpose, though extremely grotesque it may be. Therefore, it is
the responsibility of the state to provide job opportunities and self-respect to the unemployed and poor segment of the society before deprivation push them to extremism.

Social Amenities: Education and health are the most neglected sectors in Pakistan. Pakistan would have been one of the most innovative countries in the world if it spent 10 percent of GDP on education in 1990’s and 2.1 percent on defense. But, unfortunately, the reality is the other way around. Currently Pakistan is spending just 2.1 percent of GDP on education and less than 1 percent on health sector. These figures are not adjusted for the widespread corruption prevailing in the two sectors. Unequal opportunities of health and education increase the sense of deprivation that severely damage the bonds of social cohesion and pave the way for hatred.

Lack of Speedy Justice and Law & Order: The justice System in Pakistan is a trap that exhausts the petitioners before they cab find a safe exit. Due to the slow moving judicial system and increasing demand for justice, terror organizations run a tilted, but parallel speedy judicial system that helps them establish their authority at the cost of the writ of the government. Furthermore,this is all due to the corruption and negligence that the marginalizes the needy, while the wealthy are bequeathed, the deprived are deserted and the affluent prosper. A system where elites are not accountable to law and the rich can buy favor, this undermines the basis of any possible social contract and paves the way to widespread resentment among the masses. Similarly, the political appointments of police and using police as personal force by politicians erodes the credibility of the very custodians of the law and order. In a civil and just society the police should be accountable to the public and they should serve the public, rather than trample on them on behalf of their political masters.

Madrassahs and Foreign Hand: Madrassahs has been remaining a part and parcel of our society, but Madrassahs built and financed during the first Afghan crisis are fanning fundamentalism. The state’s inability to provide decent education opportunities across the board pushes youth from humble backgrounds in to Madrassahs (seminaries) for education-cum-meals. The majority of Madrassahs in Pakistan are financed from abroad and thus less accountable to the state of Pakistan. They pursue their sponsor’s interest. Their curriculum is outdated and hardly imparts the much needed values in the students to compete in modern society. Some Madrassahs brainwash the youth and propagate their parochial ideologies as the true representation of Islam. Bringing Madrassahs under the government realm and introducing up-to-date curriculum with the help of respected religious scholars within the country and across the world would deprive terrorists of a breeding ground and safe sanctuaries in the long run.

Transparency in Defense: The apologists could have been deprived of a good excuse if consensus was developed before joining the allied forces in the on going war on terror in 2001. A decision by a few living in fortified complexes at the cost of the public exchequer never considered the interests of their subjects in the game of give and take. The flawed concept of strategic depth and the imposition of blur policies on 180 million people from GHQ needs to be stopped if the government is serious in the war on terror. 50 thousand people have died and not a single inventor and guardian of ‘strategic depth’ has been exposed. 25 percent of budget was allocated to defense, but terrorist have been running a parallel state under the nose of armed forces. Pakistan also needs to reconsider that the dubious policy of targeting one and befriending others among the terror groups is not going to serve the country locally nor help her win the trust of friends internationally. Some key terrorist were captured and literally sold to other countries, while others were kept in secret facilities without completing the due legal process or informing the people about their fate. The process of dumping bullet-ridden bodies has to stop before convincing others to play fair.

Political Structure and Institutions: Our political structure serves the elite. The monopolization of politics creates a vacuum of bold leaders and efficient policy makers. The political class is interested to amass illegal wealth and secure personal gains at the cost of national interest. This class is callously indifferent to the suffering of people within the country and more loyal to their foreign mentors. The political elite behave as if the country is their personal property and they can sell it to anyone at any cost as they wish. The lack of accountability and complete authority of elites has corrupted the national institutions beyond remedy. Out of 146 countries, Pakistan occupies the 126th position in corruption and 127 in democratic accountability. Pakistan is ranked 130th in terms of overall quality of institutions out of 146. The inefficient institutions reflects the weakness of governance that could provide a loophole to the extremists to promote their cause.

Finally, a comprehensive policy as an antidote to the venom of terror include addressing the grievances of marginalized groups, rule of law instead the rule of a few crooks, encouraging religious tolerance, provision of objective liberal education, employment and much needed justice to the people along with disengagement
and realignment of brain washed individuals. Otherwise wining the war on terror just by force will be a momentary success.

*Syed Hasanat Shah
Associate Professor, School of Economics, Jilin University, China.

The post Why Force Alone Can’t Win War On Terror In Pakistan – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


The Nuances Of Soft Power In International Relations – Analysis

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By Aaron Jed Rabena*

Soft power is a concept has become popular in recent years due to its frequent inclusion in the speeches and narratives of many leaders, scholars, and strategic thinkers worldwide. Joseph Nye, Harvard Professor and former adviser to the White House, defines soft power as “the ability to attract and co-opt rather than coerce, use force or give money as a means of persuasion.” By extension, we can also say that soft power may be likened to a “marketing strategy” that needs to promote a product’s “sellability.”

In the case of states, it is their very ‘national marketing strategy’ to promote themselves — in all aspects — to the world. In International Relations (IR), it is influence employed by states in order to make one’s image appealing or attractive before others. This means that such power flows through peaceful means. What makes soft power likeable is its sense of “coolness” and “awesomeness.” And when that influence becomes so big, it becomes, consciously or unconsciously, a sphere of influence.

This, in fact, is also one of the keys that can make a country an investment, tourism, educational, and retirement hub. It is plain common sense: Who would want to study, invest and tour or migrate in a country that is not attractive or popular? The answer is because people always want to be associated with something good or famous, so that, they too, would become good or famous. People take pride in it whenever they have a certain sense of exclusivity or inclusivity. The same is true in the case of states, alliances, and partnerships.

Soft Power of Major Powers

Notably, two of the world’s greatest powers, the United States (US) and China, have — on large scales — been successful in wielding and projecting their country’s soft power around the world. For the US, this has been seen, among others, through its economic prowess with the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency; its native-tongue (English) serving as the world’s lingua franca; its influential entertainment industries (Hollywood, National Basketball Association (NBA), Music Television (MTV)); its corporate industries (Ford, GM, Starbucks, Apple, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Nike); its traditional and social medias (CNN, Facebook, Twitter); its scientific and educational institutions (Harvard, Princeton, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)); and its political values (democracy, freedom, rule of law, ‘culture of lawyering.’). This is the reason why many states or individuals want to be associated with the US or migrate to it — because of the element of prestige tied to it.

As for China, China’s soft power could be seen in four levels. First are its achievements arising from its merciless hard work and blitzing development at home: rapid urbanization; hosting of many major international events; expansive high-speed rail network; frequent space missions; superb and well-synchronized military parades; campus-cities; and the rise of its homegrown companies like Xiaomi and Huawei. Second is by the greatness and icons of its culture and society: five-thousand year history; nation with the second-most number of registered World Heritage Sites; ancient and modern architectural wonders (Terra Cotta Warriors, Great Wall, The Bird’s Nest); its ancient self-defense and medicinal practices (Wushu and Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)); and the proliferation of its Confucian Institutes abroad. Third is by its well-organized and well-funded sports system, considering that sports are also part of projecting a nation’s soft power most especially when it comes to big sporting events like the Olympics and World Cup. Lastly, Chinese soft power had also been associated with its developmental projects and ‘infrastructure diplomacy’ to developing countries (e.g. Africa and Latin America).

Obviously, what can be seen and touched are what attracts, as these are what appeal to people’s senses. That is why China has earned so many adjectives from scholars and world leaders alike in describing its rise, including the pervading reputation to be the “next superpower,” because it has done so many things that are tangible and palpable. In fact, according to the Chinese Ministry of Education this year, China has already surpassed France as the world’s third most popular “study abroad” destination, next only to the US and the United Kingdom (UK).

Similarly, for Japan as a major power, it has drawn positive influences from its Anime (movies and TV series), Manga (cartoon and comic books), Cosplay (fans dressing in the costume of their favorite characters), corporate industries (Sony, Toyota, Honda), martial arts (Karate, Aikido, Kendo), and its world-renowned Japanese cuisine. While for Korea, a middle power, its Korean Wave or Hallyu (Korean popular music (KPOP), dramas, language, technology (Samsung, Hyundai, KIA), movies, and cuisine) was able to make tremendous waves throughout the world, with US President Obama even saying, “It’s no wonder so many people around the world have caught the Korean wave — hallyu.”

In other words, the hosting of major international events, pop culture, brands, fashions, lifestyle, technology, media, educational institutions, language, scholars, infrastructural magnificence, inventions, ancient history, national wonders, geographical size, and population, all contribute — or are instrumental — to a country’s soft power.

Strategic Ways of Utilizing Soft Power

Generally, soft power could come into effect in two ways. First is the state-led (nationalized) approach; and second is the publics-led (individualized) approach. The first one is when a state, in advancing its foreign policy agenda or national interest, undertakes measures, including cultural and public diplomacy, to impress upon others its own sense of attractiveness or positive image so as to get more accommodation from other countries.

Examples of these are government scholarships, tourism expos, student and academic exchanges, space programs, checkbook diplomacy, and Official Development Assistance (ODA), among others. In fact, when a group of states that has a successful soft power band together, they form an even highly integrated level of a soft power, such as the European Union (EU). Since many things about them are perceived as nice and noble, the mere names of their countries and their continent, including their cities’ names will be associated to whatever their status is — also nice and noble. It should not come as a surprise therefore why five of the top 10 tourism destinations in the world (2013) were EU members.

Secondly, the publics-led are those done by non-state actors such as Multi-National Companies (MNCs) or Transnational Companies (TNCs), Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), or even just plain private individuals. Oft-times, this approach happens without the collaboration of the state-led approach. But it, however, still inadvertently adds up to a country’s soft power because it helps promote a country’s appeal. In fact, these two ways can be coordinated jointly, and could even lead to some sort of a ‘consolidated national soft power.’

Examples of the publics-led are when individuals have served as icons to remember such as Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, Michael Jordan, and Jackie Chan. Sometimes, this is even further reinforced by media publicities like the Time Magazine’s Person of the Year and the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize. This is the reason why the achievements of individual persons or entities also add-up to a country’s soft power. Their success will be traced all the way to what their citizenship is. And so in effect, whatever they say would be influential, and their country – remembered or saluted. Naturally therefore, showbiz personalities or famous corporate industries become untitled ‘soft power agents’ of the state because of their influence.

Importance of Soft Power

What’s so good about soft power is that it is without the use of force or the brute imposition of it. Although sometimes, soft power is misconstrued as a form of propaganda, but in truth and in fact, it really just depends on who looks at it and how it is looked at. In short, the reason why many states want to promote their own soft power is so that other states would be able to understand, view them positively, accommodate, or even imitate them.

Take language as an example. Language is an important part of soft power because it now equates to social status, which is a powerful symbolism. This is especially true for the younger generations and the reason why parents (of non-native English speakers) train their kids to speak English — because of the prestige of intellectual elitism attached to it given that as it was popularized, through movies and media, by English speaking countries (or the West) which are mostly developed.

This is also why people copy from the movies the way Westerners speak, their jokes, and their idiomatic expressions, believing that it is an elite language used by people from industrialized states, and in so doing, would make them have some ‘positive association’ or raise their social value. Unconsciously or unwittingly, such already is a form of ‘social emulation.’ Soft power is a success if many wants to emulate it or succumbs to it.

In reading, we can say that the more you read of something, the more you become of it. The same applies to soft power. The more you are exposed to it, the more you are into it. This is very powerful because it can shape the mind of the young and create a strong image of an object and a subject which will greatly affect the way they think or behave in the future, such as when newborns will have a default acceptance of the kind of environment that they grew up in. So people, in a large sense, get framed with what they know, with what they are taught, and how they are taught.

Once deeply entrenched in a country, it could create a political culture, consumerist culture, job culture, social culture, a bureaucratic culture, and a sporting culture similar to the country of where the soft power came from. And when this happens, it will affect a state’s public opinion, its social constructions, and eventually its overall political psychology as well.

To put it realistically, what is else there to fight for or fight about if both states (or the peoples of both states) already think and act alike?

*Aaron Jed Rabena is a Doctoral Candidate in International Relations at Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of in China.

The post The Nuances Of Soft Power In International Relations – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Queen Of Sweden To DHI: Do Whatever You Can to Help Children, All Children

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Dignitatis Humanae Institute (DHI) participated April 27 in an exclusive, invitation-only Vatican seminar on Human trafficking.

Hosted by Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo, Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, in conjunction with the Swedish government, the “Seminar on Trafficking – with a Special Focus on Children” featured H.M. The Queen of Sweden, and DHI Board Member H.E. Cardinal Turkson, President of the Pontifical Council on Justice and Peace.

After thanking her for the work she was doing to highlight the reality of the trafficking of children Benjamin Harnwell, DHI Founder, asked Queen Silvia – citing Mother Teresa – whether she also thought there was a connection between abortion and the hardness of hearts shown towards children after they are born.

The Queen, who is the Swedish Head of State, made immediately clear that she didn’t want to – and cannot – enter the political debate on abortion. But as a global leader in the campaign for children’s welfare, her answer in the context of the question deserves careful study and reflection.

Harnwell put to Her Majesty that Mother Teresa suggested that a society that aborts its children will never fully recognize the human dignity of people once they’re born. He asked whether the way society in the West deals with children before they are born has somehow hardened our hearts to the plight of children being trafficked in the West today. “Is there is a correlation between these two events?,” Harnwell asked.

According to DHI, Queen Silvia replied, “I must say that Mother Teresa was a wonderful person and all the work she did was really fantastic. She was a Nobel Peace Prize winner – and so she really was a model. To talk about humanity and dignity was very important to her heart – I must say – and so I think she is very right: and so whatever you can do to help the children – all children – really, we should do.”

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Full Spectrum Deterrence Excludes Possibility Of War In South Asia – OpEd

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In a recent international conference, a few confessions were made public by a prominent Pakistani strategic figure as a gesture to the international community, and to ensure the country’s minimum deterrence capability.

The Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference 2015 was held on March 23-24 in Washington DC, which included as a speaker Lt Gen. (retd) Khalid Kidwai, who is and advisor to Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA) and was the pioneer Director General of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division (SPD), which he headed for an unprecedented 15 years till December 2013 with an unheard of 12 extensions after his retirement from the army. As the head of SPD, Kidwai is credited with conceiving, articulating and executing Pakistan’s nuclear policy and deterrence doctrines into a tangible and robust nuclear force structure.

He highlighted some blazing points at the conference. By way of starting, he criticized the one-sided policies of the United States favoring India in all aspects. After the US-India Strategic Partnership the Indo-US Nuclear Deal and more currently, the scorching matter of the NSG exemption for the possibility of nuclear deal – have been a destabilizing factor for South Asia, he said. These US policies are unhelpful and unacceptable to Pakistan for sure.

The development of Pakistan’s Shaheen-3 missile having a  range of 2,750 km is aimed to prevent India from gaining a second-strike nuclear capability from the Andaman and Nicobar islands and not aimed at other countries. The development of the Shaheen-3 missile is needed since it is suspected that India was developing strategic bases on its Andaman and Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal.

More specifically, Pakistani officials define minimum deterrence as India-specific. To put it simply, the strategic calculus is narrowed down to deterring a militarily and economically stronger India. But, officials have articulated that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program is not open-ended.

At the Washington conference Lt. Gen Kidwai, explained that Pakistan’s quest for the Nasr shoot-and-scoot missile system was in response to concerns that India’s larger military could still wage a conventional war against the country, thinking Pakistan would not risk retaliation with a bigger nuclear weapon.. Since these tactical nuclear weapons are mounted on short distance missiles, their command and control is delegated to lower levels in the military. It is a well known fact that these short-range, tactical nuclear weapons are a defensive response to India. More precisely, the development of Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons is actually in response to India’s Cold Start strategy.

Rakesh Sood, former Indian special envoy for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, during the same conference said it was extremely destabilizing for any country to develop tactical nuclear weapons. He asserted that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is “cloaked in ambiguity” which undermines confidence between the two countries. Ironically enough, why the Indian space program with ICBM potential or the India’s nukes or its missiles program troublesome for anybody or let’s say in particular, to the international community?

Taking into account the fact that, India is operating a nuclear submarine, INS Chakra and is currently testing another indigenously developed nuclear submarine, Lt. Gen. Kidwai also revealed that Pakistan’s sea-based second strike capability is a ‘work in progress’ and will come into play in the next few years. Ruling out nuclear submarines for Pakistan, he said ‘I won’t say nuclear submarines, but if broadly talking about a second-strike capability, for which submarines are a platform, yes.’

Moving ahead, in response to a question on the number of nuclear bombs that will be enough for Pakistan, he refused to divulge the exact numbers by suggesting that Pakistan follows the policy of nuclear ambiguity and revealing numbers would be against it.

However, he also revealed that while Pakistan had already moved from minimum deterrence to “full spectrum deterrence,” the current arsenal size would be sufficient for the next 10-15 years. As per the estimates of Arms Control Association, Pakistan currently has between 100 to 120 nuclear warheads as compared to India’s 90-110 warheads.

Nevertheless, Pakistan believes that the rising conventional disparity with India fetched its inherited security dilemma from eastern borders, lowering its nuclear thresholds, and forces it to bolster efforts to play the much anticipated ‘numbers game.’ It also gauged the efficiency of Pakistan credible minimum deterrence, now termed as Full Spectrum Deterrence. Islamabad also realized the amount relative weakness of its force structure, prompting it to induct tactical nuclear weapons into its nuclear arsenal, which an emboldened India “might use a different criteria to judge the survivability and effectiveness” of its nuclear arsenal could give birth to highly improbable scenarios to point out weaknesses in the Islamabad nuclear arsenal. Even so, the nuclear buildup in South Asia has undoubtedly, ‘made war as an instrument of policy almost unthinkable.’ In other words, nuclear deterrence has actually helped prevent war in South Asia.

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India Should Rethink Its Afghan Policy – Analysis

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By P. Stobdan*

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai’s visit to India comes too late. The dominant perception in the Indian strategic affairs community is that Ghani has not only not appreciated but has also ignored India and instead has given priority to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, China and Iran. While his reasons for visiting all these countries may have been tactical, the symbolic snub to India cannot be discounted. Surely, he will try to mollify New Delhi but the outcome of his visit is likely to have little strategic significance.
Analysts see Ghani’s shift of positions as being guided by a) the calculation of a Pakistan-sponsored breakthrough with the Taliban, and b) the need to convey the message that Afghanistan no longer wishes to be a battleground for an India-Pakistan proxy war. Ghani’s shift also comes amidst disappointment among many Afghans about India’s failure to grab the opportunity.

Ghani has already rescinded a request for weapon supplies from India, suggesting that he can get arms from anywhere. India’s delay in delivering these weapons is quite normal, but the fact is that New Delhi had firmed up with Russian companies to supply the weapons required by the Afghan National Army (ANA). Now that Washington has promised to support 352,000 Afghan personnel until 2017, the Indian help gets becomes even less relevant. But, to cover it up, India is expected to hand over three multi-role Cheetah helicopters to Ghani.

Many in India suspect that even India’s economic role in Afghanistan may become diminished and that Ghani might review the gamut of Indian projects including the Chabahar Port linking project, iron-ore blocks, and steel plant in Hajigak. Nor are there any prospects for the Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA), with Kabul looking to Islamabad for military support. Consequently, it appears that agreements concluded during Ghani’s ongoing visit are likely to be on softer areas such as trade, transit, motor vehicles movement, mutual legal assistance, etc. Nevertheless, the fact remains that the implementation of even these agreements including interregional connectivity will ultimately hinge on Pakistan’s cooperation and forbearance.

A plan for connectivity through Iran has existed for decades but there has been no substantial movement on this front. The latest Pakistan-China Economic Corridor plans would further challenge the prospect of the Indian connectivity project. What is left after all this is India building a home ground for the Afghan national cricket team. By now, India’s Afghan watchers can also guess what President Ghani will focus upon in his lecture at the Indian Council for World Affairs: “The (re)birth of the Asian Continental Economy: Regional cooperation and Afghanistan’s cooperative advantage.”

Is India’s Afghan policy in crisis? Firstly, it appears that India’s somewhat impulsive efforts have not cut much ice. A Pakistani analyst slyly put it thus: “India trains Afghan forces but does not arm them…does not build houses – so morally weak army join the Taliban insurgents.” Interesting observation, although what drove India to adopt such a course was respect for Pakistan’s sensitivity in the first place.

Secondly, India’s $2 billion commitment for Afghanistan seems to have been driven more by woolly ideas of ‘gaining goodwill’ rather than being based on a sound strategic assessment. India’s desire to help may have been genuine, but not everyone viewed it that way, nor has it worked that way, because politics does not necessarily work on the logic of showing benevolence, magnanimity and a display of riches.

Thirdly, why did India go alone without joining hands with other partners? Did Indian policy makers get carried away? In contrast, the Iranian, Russian and Chinese thinking proved smarter. This question requires serious discussion in order to avoid a repeat in the future.

Alas, there are no visible strategic gains for all the resources spent. It seems as if all that money has gone down the drain. And India can at best console itself for having earned some good punya (merit) in Afghanistan; hopefully this will help the country in its future destiny.

All likely scenarios are visible, including Pakistan gaining a leeway to thwart Indian plans. In the current context, even Russia seems to be lending support to Pakistani efforts. Clearly, India needs to reassess its Afghan policy.

In the past, India’s Afghan policy worked albeit ironically because of Pakistani follies. For instance, in April 1992, even the pro-Pakistan Afghan mujahideen refused to become Islamabad’s puppet and turned to New Delhi. By 1996, even long time ISI protégé Gulbuddin Hekmatyar fell out with Pakistan to join the Rabbani group. It was indeed quite an irony when, upon becoming the new Afghan Prime Minister, Hekmatyar received a congratulatory message from his Indian counterpart. Not just that, Hekmatyar even attended India’s Independence Day celebration at the Indian Embassy in Kabul on 15 August 1996.

With the Taliban coming to power on 27 September 1996, India departed from its traditional practice of recognizing any regime that controlled Kabul. It even rebuffed the Taliban’s attempt on at least three occasions to establish contact. To be fair to them, the Taliban did not show any particular antagonism towards India.

India vowed to get the Northern Alliance back to power, but the Gujral Doctrine for better relations with Pakistan poured cold water on that plan. In May 1997, when Mazar-i-Sharif fell to the Taliban, India signalled that it would deal with whoever was in control in Kabul. The BJP, then in the opposition, stood up to criticize the government’s indecisiveness. Afghanistan also featured in the BJP’s 1989 manifesto, with Vajpayee asking for a thorough review of the policy towards that country; the rest is history now.

India’s concerns today seem to be more on terrorism and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba’s networks in Kunar and Nooristan. Instead, the focus should be more on Afghanistan’s ethnic politics.

The option of joining hands with Iran is still on the table. To stop the reversal of gains, some even suggest India changing its Pakistan policy. This is ideal but not an easily reachable option.

Of course, there are likely to be many bewildering twists to the Afghan situation. For now, most countries are adopting a wait and see attitude because none is willing to be played by the Afghans. One might have to wait for another cycle of chaos to begin before making a move. Alternately, differences could erupt among Afghan leaders or between them and Pakistani leaders. After all, the two countries will compete for the same strategic space. Thus, it is unlikely that the Afghan game will end anytime soon. India should continue to play the game but no longer by showering financial largesse but by deploying its skills of political manoeuvring.

*The author is a former Ambassador and strategic thinker.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India. Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/IndiashouldrethinkitsAfghanpolicy_pstobdan_280415.html

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Ethiopia: Economic Growth, Political Repression And ISIS: Analyzing Recent Events

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Nestled in the turbulent Horn of Africa, Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent modern nation-state and second most populous. Discourse on Ethiopia has traditionally revolved around poverty, conflict, disease, and famine, yet in recent years it has experienced considerable economic growth, making it amongst “Africa’s top performing economies,” and the country has also made significant progress on several of the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals. Furthermore, regional political maneuvers and ambitions have seen Ethiopia touted as “Africa’s Next Hegemon.” Although these developments are widely heralded within the new Ethiopian narrative, other critical issues have often been overlooked.

For example, while Ethiopia’s economic “miracle” has been much celebrated, it remains the second poorest country in the world according to the United Nations Development Programme and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative’s Multidimensional Poverty Index, the country continues to rank extremely low upon various socio-economic, governance, and development indicators, it still receives significant amounts of military, economic, and food aid, is plagued by considerable regional and ethnolinguistic-based inequalities (many arising through government cronyism), and it is also burdened by significantly high levels of unemployment (partly fueling mass migration).

Problematically, Ethiopia’s state-led development strategy is riddled with pervasive, systematic human rights abuses. Since the beginning of work on Ethiopia’s Gibe III Dam project in 2006, international human rights groups have repeatedly accused the regime in Addis Ababa of forcibly driving indigenous minority ethnic groups out of the Lower Omo Valley and endangering the indigenous Turkana community. Survival International, a UK-based rights group, has warned that the “Kwegu people of southwest Ethiopia are facing a food crisis, severe hunger, and the loss of their water and fish supplies due to the destruction of surrounding forests and the drying up of the river on which their livelihoods depend.”

The brutality characterizing the Gibe III Dam project is mirrored by the violence and repression accompanying Ethiopia’s “villagization” program, a vital component of the state’s agricultural development strategy. Dating back to the days of the murderous Dergue regime, and condemned by a spate of international rights groups, villagization entails the forcible relocation of indigenous communities from locations reserved for large foreign-owned plantations. Reports by rights groups list a plethora of human rights violations including beatings, killings, rapes, imprisonment, intimidation, and political coercion by the government and authorities. The program has also led to greater food insecurity, a destruction of livelihoods, and the loss of cultural heritage of ethnic groups. The deleterious effects of villagization are displayed in a report (based on first-person testimony) recently released by the Oakland Institute (OI), an international rights, advocacy, and environmental group. OI’s report vividly describes how, via “strongarm tactics reminiscent of apartheid South Africa, the Ethiopian regime has moved tens of thousands of people against their will to purpose-built communes that have inadequate food and lack health and education facilities to make way for large, foreign-owned commercial agriculture projects.”

In essence, Ethiopia’s socio-political climate is characterized by torture, oppression, and crackdowns on any perceived signs of dissent. Reports “detailing the arbitrary detention, beatings, and torture of journalists, bloggers, youth, and governmental opponents are widespread, including Ethiopia’s use of surveillance equipment to monitor the speech and interactions of the Ethiopian diaspora.”

Last year, documents released by renowned international journalist Glenn Greenwald also revealed that Ethiopia’s state surveillance activities were partly underwritten by the NSA.

However, there are signs that long-simmering grievances and tensions may boil over. Disenchantment and disillusionment, marked by claims of “repression, inequality and unemployment” have inspired large, frequent protests against the regime over the last few years. Last year, mass protests by Oromo civilians, especially students, were brutally crushed by Ethiopian authorities, while last week, a government organized rally, arranged in the aftermath of ISIS’ brutal murder of Ethiopian migrants in Libya, witnessed numerous arrests, injuries, and widespread clashes between security forces and protesters. During the rally, the government trumpeted political slogans, with an eye on upcoming elections, while government spokespersons urged potential migrants not to risk their lives by using dangerous exit routes. Demonstrators erupted in anger, denouncing the government as “thieves” and condemning the fact that Ethiopian migrants were only in Libya due to the deplorable conditions in Ethiopia.

With national “elections” on the near horizon, periods historically marked by boycotts, corruption and vote-rigging, violence, and repression, Ethiopia’s internal socio-political dynamics merit attention and should not be overlooked, particularly due to potential domestic and regional humanitarian and security implications. The migrant tragedy in Libya and the regime’s ongoing crackdowns display clearly that the “African Lion” is unwell. Moreover, they could augur that additional instability, upheaval, uprisings, and even a long-sought socio-political change are to come.

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