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Underwater Volcano Erupting 300 Miles Off US West Coast

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Axial Seamount, an active underwater volcano located about 300 miles off the coast of Oregon and Washington, appears to be erupting – after two scientists had forecast that such an event would take place there in 2015.

Geologists Bill Chadwick of Oregon State University and Scott Nooner of the University of North Carolina Wilmington made their forecast last September during a public lecture and followed it up with blog posts and a reiteration of their forecast just last week at a scientific workshop.

Location of Axial Seamount off US West Coast. Credit: Bill Chadwick, Oregon State University

Location of Axial Seamount off US West Coast. Credit: Bill Chadwick, Oregon State University

They based their forecast on some of their previous research – funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which showed how the volcano inflates and deflates like a balloon in a repeatable pattern as it responds to magma being fed into the seamount.

Since last Friday, the region has experienced thousands of tiny earthquakes – a sign that magma is moving toward the surface – and the seafloor dropped by 2.4 meters, or nearly eight feet, also a sign of magma being withdrawn from a reservoir beneath the summit. Instrumentation recording the activity is part of the NSF-funded Ocean Observatories Initiative. William Wilcock of the University of Washington first observed the earthquakes.

“It isn’t clear yet whether the earthquakes and deflation at Axial are related to a full-blown eruption, or if it is only a large intrusion of magma that hasn’t quite reached the surface,” said Chadwick, who works out of OSU’s Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport and also is affiliated with NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. “There are some hints that lava did erupt, but we may not know for sure until we can get out there with a ship.”

In any case, the researchers say, such an eruption is not a threat to coastal residents. The earthquakes at Axial Seamount are small and the seafloor movements gradual and thus cannot cause a tsunami.

“I have to say, I was having doubts about the forecast even the night before the activity started,” Chadwick admitted. “We didn’t have any real certainty that it would take place – it was more of a way to test our hypothesis that the pattern we have seen was repeatable and predictable.”

Axial Seamount provides scientists with an ideal laboratory, not only because of its close proximity to the Northwest coast, but for its unique structure.

“Because Axial is on very thin ocean crust, its ‘plumbing system’ is simpler than at most volcanoes on land that are often complicated by other factors related to having a thicker crust,” said Chadwick, who is an adjunct professor in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. “Thus Axial can give us insights into how volcano magma systems work – and how eruptions might be predicted.”

Axial Seamount last erupted in 2011 and that event was loosely forecast by Chadwick and Nooner, who had said in 2006 that the volcano would erupt before 2014. Since the 2011 eruption, additional research led to a refined forecast that the next eruption would be in 2015 based on the fact that the rate of inflation had increased by about 400 percent since the last eruption.

“We’ve learned that the supply rate of magma has a big influence on the time between eruptions,” Nooner said. “When the magma rate was lower, it took 13 years between eruptions. But now when the magma rate is high, it took only four years.”

Chadwick and Nooner are scheduled to go back to Axial in August to gather more data, but it may be possible for other researchers to visit the seamount on an expedition as early as May. They hope to confirm the eruption and, if so, measure the volume of lava involved.

Evidence that was key to the successful forecast came in the summer of 2014 via measurements taken by colleagues Dave Caress and Dave Clague of Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute and Mark Zumberge and Glenn Sasagawa of Scripps Oceanographic Institution. Those measurements showed the high rate of magma inflation was continuing.

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Eucom Commander Breedlove Warns US Senate Panel Of Russian Aggression

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By Terri Moon Cronk

A new and challenging security environment with significant, lasting implications for U.S. national security interests has plagued Europe in the last year, with Russian aggression the top concern, the commander of U.S. European Command said on Capitol Hill today.

Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, who also serves as NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, testified at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Eucom’s responsibilities as part of the president’s fiscal year 2016 defense budget request.

Calling Russia a revanchist nation that blatantly challenges rules and principles that have been the European security bedrock for decades, the nation is a global, enduring concern, the general warned.

“Russian aggression is clearly visible in its illegal occupation of Crimea and its continued operations in eastern Ukraine,” he said. “In Ukraine, Russia has supplied their proxies with heavy weapons, training and mentoring, command and control, artillery, fire support, tactical and operational-level air defenses,” Breedlove noted, adding that the situation on the ground also is volatile and fragile.

Potential Russian Offensive

Russian forces repositioned during a recent lull in fighting, Breedlove noted. “Many [Russian] actions are consistent with preparations for another offensive,” he added.

Russia is aggressive in all elements of national power — diplomatic, informational, economic, and its military, the general said.

“It would not make sense to unnecessarily take any of our own tools off the table,” he said about the U.S. possibility of supplying defensive weapons to Ukraine.

Russia’s aggression also is destabilizing neighboring states and the region, and its illegal actions are pushing instability closer to NATO’s boundaries, Breedlove told the senators.

“We cannot be fully certain what Russia will do next, and we cannot fully grasp [Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s] intent,” Breedlove he said. “What we can do is learn from his actions, and what we see suggests growing Russian capabilities, significant military modernization and an ambitious strategic intent.”

The United States must strengthen its deterrence to manage Putin’s opportunist confidence, the general said, “because [Putin] responds to strength and seeks opportunities in weakness.”

Violent Extremism in Europe

Europe faces a challenging surge of violent extremism, and its nations are “rightly worried” about foreign fighters returning home to Europe from the fight in Syria and Iraq with new skills and with bad intent, he noted.

Foreign fighters show a large pattern of insecurity in southern Europe, the commander said. And transit routes are shared with violent extremists, organized criminal networks and migrant populations fleeing difficult conditions in Libya, he added.

“The spread of instability into Europe and the transnational terrorism … could have a direct bearing on the national security of the U.S. homeland,” Breedlove said.

Eucom works with European nations bilaterally and supported NATO initiatives to confront and counter the new, more complex security environment, Breedlove told the panel, in addition to working with other U.S. combatant commands and international organizations.

“U.S. efforts in Europe remain essential. Our leadership is perhaps more important now than at any time in recent history,” he said, adding a “key and sustained” U.S. military role is critical.

Eucom also draws heavily from a new Defense Department program, the Defensive Innovation Initiative, which uses cutting-edge approaches to tough challenges such as anti-access area denial, Breedlove said.

Continued Assets from Congress Needed

With the strong threat posed by Russia and the growing challenge in southern Europe, Breedlove said, Eucom needs help from Congress in three areas.

The first, he said, is a persistent U.S. forward presence in Europe, which he called the bedrock of the United States’ ability to assure allies, deter adversaries and be postured to act timely if deterrence fails.

Second, he said, is for Congress to provide for sufficient intelligence support, after Russia’s operations in Ukraine the past year underscored critical gaps in intelligence collection and analysis.

“Russian military exercises have caught us by surprise, and our textured feel for Russian involvement on the ground in Ukraine has been quite limited,” Breedlove emphasized.

Earlier warning also will assist with counterterrorism and operations in the European theater against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, he said. “A small investment in this capability could lead to a large return and our understanding of the complex challenges we face,” he added.

Co0ngress also must provide sufficient future resourcing with European Reassurance Initiative funding support in fiscal year 2016. ERI support in fiscal 2015 showed the U.S. commitment to its allies, helped to shape the European theater and allowed Eucom to build and sustain partner capacity, Breedlove said.

“Key components of ERI in fiscal ’16 include maintaining air superiority presence, participating in NATO exercises, supporting rotational presence of an armored brigade combat team, prepositioning equipment [and] funding the Global Response Force exercises, in addition to other needs,” he added.

Budgetary Constraints Risky

Previous constraints put Eucom in a position of assuming greater risk, the general said, citing longer deployments, less-robust preparations, and a “less sure” ability to deter and defeat an enemy than existed a decade ago.

“As [Defense Secretary Ash Carter] testified recently, further reductions would damage our national security and have a direct and lasting impact on our ability to protect and defend the nation in and from the European theater,” Breedlove said. “[And] the security challenges in and around Europe are growing sharper and more complicated.”

The post Eucom Commander Breedlove Warns US Senate Panel Of Russian Aggression appeared first on Eurasia Review.

EU’s Mogherini In Tunisia, Holds Talks With Libyan Parties

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Federica Mogherini, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, was in Tunisia on Thursday to have talks with all Libyan parties as a follow up of the Special European Council of 23 April.

After meeting with Bernardino León, the UN Special Representative for Libya, and members of the recently established EU/UNSMIL (UN Support Mission in Libya) liaison cell, Mogherini held a series of contacts and meetings with different parties taking part in the UN-led political dialogue.

This initiative was taken to strongly encourage them to work quickly for the setting up of a Government of National Unity in the coming weeks. Underlining the importance of Libyans taking ownership to confront the challenges the country faces, the High Representative reiterated the EU’s readiness to support a new government once it is established.

The importance of the need to urgently address the common threat of terrorism and the fight against traffickers and smugglers were stressed in the discussions both for the benefit of Libya and the EU.

Mogherini also met with the Tunisian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Baccouche, to discuss the bilateral EU-Tunisia relationship, regional challenges including the situation in Libya, migration and counter terrorism.

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EU Parliament Calls For Indonesia’s Immediate Moratorium On Death Penalty

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Members of all European Parliament political groups condemned the recent execution of eight people in Indonesia on Thursday, and called for an immediate moratorium on the death penalty there.

In a debate on Thursday with international cooperation Commissioner Neven Mimica, MEPs stressed that even though they respect Indonesia’s sovereignty and its fight against drug trafficking, the death penalty can never be justified.

MEPs urged the Indonesian authorities to abolish the death penalty, suggesting that it be replaced with other sanctions, such as life imprisonment. Many also questioned whether the people executed and those still on death row, among them a French citizen, really had fair trials. They cited the execution of Brazilian Rodrigo Gularte, despite his alleged mental illness, and a lack of lawyers and interpreters.

Some MEPs referred to Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán’s recent statement about a possible restoration of the death penalty, saying that Europe should be proud of its ban on the death penalty and should fight any attempt to reintroduce it. Several underlined that the death penalty is inhuman and has not been proven to prevent crimes.

Commissioner Mimica added that the EU is using all possible instruments, including assistance to combat drug trafficking and political pressure, to prevent recourse to the death penalty in any circumstances.

The post EU Parliament Calls For Indonesia’s Immediate Moratorium On Death Penalty appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Six Tips For Mastering e-Commerce

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When it comes to the technological revolution and the advent of e-commerce, companies tend to react in very different ways. Some see it as a threat and others as a chance for salvation. Either way, most are ill-prepared for the change: 90 percent of decisions concerning the digital realm are made by “digital immigrants” when, ideally, specialized talent should be tasked with getting the most out of it.

IESE lecturer Pablo Foncillas contributes a chapter to a book on fashion in the digital realm (published in Spanish) in which he compares digital commerce to music and outlines six keys to maximizing this sales channel. If e-commerce were music, he says, “we’d have to learn a different way of dancing.”

Objectives First, Strategy Next

From 2003 to 2010, half of the increase in sales among British companies came from e-commerce. In fact, this sales channel has been the only source of growth for a number of companies involved in the retail business. Furthermore, the trend is expected to accelerate.

In order for a company to stay in the game in this new environment, it should first define its objectives.

If a company wants to pursue new online sales, it should strengthen its digital content. If it intends to cross-sell, increasing revenues per consumer, then the most important aspect will be the customer experience. But if the goal is to improve efficiency and flexibility, the focus should be building and operating digital platforms.

Six Keys to Success

The author uses a musical metaphor and proposes six keys, or pieces, to take into account when developing online sales. According to Foncillas, it’s all about the human and technical dimensions, not technology: “Technology is the last thing we should be thinking about when developing e-commerce.”

1. Context (Setting the Stage)

E-commerce is growing at breakneck speed. The United States, where just 9 percent of sales are online, is the top country in terms of volume. Meanwhile, in the Asia-Pacific region, online sales account for nearly 35 percent of total sales. Within Europe, the United Kingdom leads the pack, while development is still modest in Spain, where it accounts for just 3-5 percent of sales.

2. Customers (Audience)

Three billion people already have access to the Internet and more than one billion shop online. The leading markets by volume are the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and China. Spain has 12 million habitual e-shoppers. The main barriers to online shopping for consumers are convenience and trust.

3. Types of e-Commerce (Types of Dance)

  • M-commerce. The United States leads in sales via mobile devices. Services like geolocation, electronic tickets for travel, and quick response (QR) codes are allowing these types of transactions to take off.
  • Social commerce. Promoted through social networks, this allows consumers to stay connected to companies and other consumers at all stages of the purchase process.
  • TV commerce. This is based on the new smart TVs.
  • Sharing economy or collaborative consumption. This is divided into three types, involving either products, forms of distribution or collaborative lifestyles.

4. Essential Steps (Dance Techniques)

The essential dance steps for e-commerce can be boiled down to four: 1) navigation, which must be straightforward; 2) information, which should offer something “above and beyond” the product description; 3) customer service, in which problem solving is vital; and 4) logistics, a key facet, since product delivery ultimately determines the quality of the online sales experience. In e-commerce, you are only as strong as your weakest link.

5. Board of Directors (Orchestra Conductor)

A study of 300 Asian, European and American companies found that fewer than 20 of them had at least three experts on their boards. Companies looking to excel and grow through e-commerce must have an “e-board.” In order to choose board members with digital profiles, a company must determine its digital strategy, understand the working context for digital talent — knowing that a good candidate with digital expertise may not resemble the typical director profile — and define what is expected of the e-commerce savvy leaders.

6. Steering Committee (Dancers)

It is difficult to succeed in the online arena unless the chief executive has a clear vision for e-commerce. That is true because the CEO will have to make difficult decisions to accommodate this vision, such as combining distinct areas of the company or organizing teams based on the consumers served.

What Type of Profile Is Needed?

Finding people with a good digital profile is a challenge, since few professionals are truly qualified and experience tends to be scarce.

Half of those in charge of e-commerce for major brands have been appointed in the past two years and their most important qualities are:

  • Digital media expertise;
  • Results/product-oriented approach;
  • Ability to build partnerships, negotiate and influence stakeholders;
  • Experience with data and an analytical mind; and
  • Adaptability and responsiveness to the market.

As Foncillas points out, whether we like it or not, the music of electronic commerce is already playing. Companies must either step away from the wall to join the dance or risk being left out.

The post Six Tips For Mastering e-Commerce appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Iran Appeals For Yemen Aid After Plane Refused Landing

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Iran has slammed Saudi Arabia and its coalition forces for refusing to let its plane land at Sanaa Airport, calling their actions are “inhumane” because the plane contained “humanitarian aid consisting of food and medicine for the people of Yemen”.

ISNA reports that the spokesperson for the foreign ministry issued a statement on Wednesday April 29, saying the actions of the Saudi military planes were “utterly inhumane and spiteful”, stressing that the plane was carrying aid sent by the Red Crescent.

Saudi coalition forces announced that they carried out air strikes on a Sanaa Airport runway on Tuesday April 28 to prevent an Iranian plane from landing in Yemen.

Iran stressed that the actions taken by the Saudi forces amounted to the inappropriate treatment of a non-military plane. Iran urged international aid organizations to provide the Yemeni people with the necessary aid that it was not able to deliver on Tuesday.

Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of supporting Yemen’s Shia forces with military aid, an allegation that has been categorically denied by Iranian authorities.

Iran has, however, consistently called for an end to the bombardment of Yemen and called for peace talks between all the involved parties.

The post Iran Appeals For Yemen Aid After Plane Refused Landing appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Saudi Arabia Says Succession Changes ‘Positive For Oil Market’

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Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman’s appointment of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would help stabilize world oil markets by strengthening political stability in the Kingdom, Ali Al-Naimi, petroleum and mineral resources minister, was quoted as saying by the SPA on Thursday.

“The royal decrees come in the national interest and impel it toward further growth and prosperity and progress and stability, and this political stability in the Kingdom will positively reflect on its economic growth, and on stability of world oil markets,” Al-Naimi was quoted as saying.

Al-Naimi said King Salman selected the two princes as future leaders considering their efficiency, capability and creativity. “As a result of its wise leadership, Saudi Arabia has been successful in ensuring adequate supply of oil to ensure international market stability.”

The post Saudi Arabia Says Succession Changes ‘Positive For Oil Market’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Saudi Royal Shuffle Step In Right Direction – OpEd

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By Dr. Talal Sulaiman Al-Harbi

Since assuming power few months ago, King Salman has kept observers on their toes. In a short period of time, he has taken drastic changes at various levels leading the country to a new era of advancement.

He is bringing difference to every Saudi day. He is making his own “Arab spring” but this time it is from top to bottom.

It is evident that he has his own governance project that will involve people in the making of their country. In the past, our country has been subject to criticism from some “liberals” at home and from those who are raising hue and cry about civil liberties and human rights.

Aware of these attacks, the country’s leadership however knows that hostile circles are selective and hypocrite as far as human rights and reforms are concerned. They were deadly silent when many dictatorships were violating their peoples’ rights; and they are still silent while the Assad regime in Syria continues massacring its people; and when the Iranian regime is sending sectarian militias to Iraq and Syria causing death and havoc.

This is not to mention Israel, the pampered untouchable child of the West where nobody has the courage to criticize its over 40 years’ occupation of Palestinian territories and its ethic, cultural, political and economic discrimination against native Arab Palestinians.

There is no denying the fact that there is no ideal or perfect system of ruling in this world. Every administration has its own mistakes.

And our leadership knows these facts. Hence, King Salman has started this reform movement, not to appease the West, but to put our house in order for the good of our citizens and country.

Water stagnates when it stops running, so are nations. Saudi Arabia has previously witnessed changes in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Kingdom during late King Abdulaziz rule. This time, the change is very radical.

The country is facing threats from terrorist organizations at home and from the Iranian-backed armed gangs in Yemen and Iraq.

There are also some circles in the West who are unhappy to see the Kingdom play leadership role in the region. They are also unhappy to see a leader who is unprepared to be dictated by anybody. The king knows it is high time to put the country on the right track and keep it moving at full speed. This is the 4th Kingdom being made from anew.
The king has started this march of reform by ending chronic chaos.

After careful diagnoses of the situation, he has started injecting new blood in the veins of the country. He knows that time doesn’t wait, so he put young men in the forefront to shoulder responsibility of the new era.

There were many analysis and statements, especially by the Iranians, claiming that the Kingdom is “on the verge of collapse.” This is mere wishful thinking and day dreaming by those who don’t want to see our country progress and take its place under the sun.

The post Saudi Royal Shuffle Step In Right Direction – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Mogherini To Visit Korea And China

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The EU’s HR/VP, Federica Mogherini, will pay her first visit to Asia next week with trips to Korea and China. Asian governments have been frustrated as EU leaders, understandably, have had to concentrate on the EU’s neighbourhood since taking office last autumn. Now Asia is moving up the agenda with a range of ministerial and summit meetings planned for the coming months. The EU-Japan summit will be held on 29 May with the EU-China summit a month later.

Mogherini’s first stop will be Korea where she will be received by President Park as well as Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se. Park has been keen on promoting EU-like cooperation in NE Asia (the NAPCI project) but has made little progress due to disputes over territory and history. A recent meeting of foreign ministers from Korea, Japan and China has given some hope for progress but much will depend on how the emotive history issue is dealt with in this 70th anniversary year of the end of world war two.

The EU and Korea are like-minded partners with few problems. The FTA is functioning well and the parallel political agreement has been supplemented by an agreement for Korea to participate in the EU’s CSDP missions. This will be one of the agenda items for Mogherini and Yun Byung-se to discuss along with the usual range of international issues including Russia/Ukraine, Iran, Syria/Iraq, and the DPRK.

In China Mogherini will be received by Prime Minister Li Keqiang as well as Foreign Minister Wang Yi. 2015 marks the 40th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic relations and many events are planned to mark this milestone. Although a number of problematic areas remain (arms embargo, market economy status) the relationship is developing steadily. The EU-China 2020 Strategic Agenda for Cooperation, agreed two years ago, remains the baseline for EU-China relations.

The two sides maintain over 60 dialogues of which some are more active than others. Climate change and urbanisation are two areas where substantial progress has been made. Currently the two sides are negotiating a bilateral investment agreement which should give a boost to trade. The EU is keen to launch a legal affairs dialogue this year and develop a ‘connectivity platform’ which could encompass projects such as the new Silk Road.

Mogherini will discuss a broad range of international topics with her Chinese counterpart and give a speech at a university. Her visit will also help prepare the EU-China summit at the end of June.

The post Mogherini To Visit Korea And China appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Japan, 2015 And The History Game – OpEd

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By Fraser Cameron*

It is impossible to escape history and this is especially true in 2015, the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. Nowhere has history poisoned the contemporary political atmosphere more than in East Asia where China and Korea have criticised Abe for failing to come to terms with Japanese aggression in the 1930s. On the Chinese side the emphasis is on the occupation of Manchuria and the ‘rape of Nanjing’ while the Koreans have tended to focus on the emotive issue of ‘comfort women’. Abe will have several chances in coming weeks to deal with the history issue starting with this week’s visit to the US when he will be given the rare honour of speaking to a joint meeting of Congress. The major speech will be on 15 August, the anniversary of Hiroshima.

At the heart of the issue is whether Abe will apologise for Japan’s behaviour and not simply express ‘regret’ or ‘sincere condolences’ as he did in a recent speech in Australia. Abe has set up an advisory committee to help him prepare his remarks on history and find the right formulation. He has indicated that he does not want to retract the statement of former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama who did use the word apology. But it remains to be seen if Abe himself will use the word.

Abe has to tread a fine line. He has his own domestic constituency to consider, many of whom believe that Japan has apologised in the past and that should be the end of it. But Abe has also to assess the impact of his words on the US as well as various audiences in Asia, notably China and Korea. Washington is very concerned at the poor relations between Tokyo and Beijing and Seoul. The White House is perplexed that its two most important allies in Asia barely talk to each other let alone sit down to discuss common threats.

A recent trilateral meeting of foreign ministers helped ease tensions and Abe and President Xi had an unexpected bilateral meeting in the margins of the Bandung anniversary conference in Jakarta last week. But these meetings will count for nothing unless Abe finds the right words to confront the history issue.

The history issue has tended to overshadow progress on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) with the US and Japan as the two most important countries in this new trade agreement. The deal between the US and Japan is almost complete but Abe is reluctant to announce this before President Obama receives fast-track authority from a bitterly divided Congress.

*Fraser Cameron, EU-Asia Director

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South China Sea: Turning Reefs Into Artificial Islands? – Analysis

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Large-scale reclamation work in the South China Sea using living coral reefs as building material is causing severe environmental damage. It is also against international law.

By Youna Lyons and Wong Hiu Fung*

China’s ongoing reclamation activities in the South China Sea are a cause for environmental concern, given their potential to destroy the little-explored pristine coral reefs of the Spratlys. This development comes as a surprise coming at a time of loss of biological diversity on land and in the sea, and an acute concern for the degradation of the natural environment.

These marine features lie in contested waters. High resolution commercial satellite imagery shows mechanical dredgers and their circular trails operating on reefs in the Spratlys where substantial land reclamation work is being or has been undertaken by China. This is particularly visible on Fiery Cross Reef, Hughes Reef, Mischief Reef, Subi Reef, Cuarteron Reef, Gaven Reef and Johnson South Reef. Even unoccupied shallow features have been dredged to provide building material for nearby reclamations. Coral reefs that have been left untouched for centuries by virtue of their isolation are now gone.

Using living coral reefs as building material

Dredgers, such as cutter suction dredgers, are used to break up and remove hard substrates like coral reefs together with other attached organisms (molluscs, seagrass, etc) before compacting them onto the area being reclaimed. In addition to removing all coral reefs, these dredgers create sediment plumes that further threaten living coral fragments still alive and other photosynthetic organisms that need sunlight to live.

The environmental impact due to past construction of military installations and destructive fishing methods on reefs has already been reported since the late 1980s. But such activities were of a smaller magnitude and did not involve the destruction of entire reef systems –as is being done now in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

Spratly Islands in South China Sea

Spratly Islands in South China Sea

The geographic formations, generally known as the Spratlys Islands, are in fact isolated seamounts covered with coral reefs. These underwater mountains on the seabed are separated by deep and large canyons up to 50 km wide and several thousand metres high. Their summits are or were covered with living corals (and often with seagrass in shallowest areas). But only a dozen out of more than one hundred of them exhibit small cays or islands above water at all tides – altogether less than one square kilometre.

Their dramatic rise from the seabed causes an upward current, bringing up nutrient-rich deep water that feeds life developing in the top layers of the sea. Seamounts are remarkably productive as they create exceptional conditions for a variety of life to develop; both in the light of the top layers of the sea and below. However, their isolation also makes them vulnerable and slow to recover from large-scale disturbances.

Marine research studies carried out in the 1980’s by the Joint Oceanographic Marine Survey of the Philippines and Vietnam and more recently by independent scientists show the rich biodiversity in the shallowest parts of these seamounts – their richness in coral reefs, fishes, seabirds, migratory species and other coral reef associated species.

Potential impact on littoral States

Coral ecologists specialising in the Spratlys hypothesised in the 1990’s that the very high diversity of species in the Spratlys would provide critical larval sources for overharvested and stressed coastlines bordering the South China Sea and more generally for biodiversity reservoirs. This theory is based on a combination of factors. These include on-site sampling; the proximity of the Coral Triangle; and enhanced transport and dispersal of drifting larvae and juvenile fishes throughout the South China Sea by the ocean circulation pattern that reverses under monsoonal influence.

Recent research suggests that the biodiversity of the South China Sea may be comparable to or even richer than that of the Coral Triangle – the tropical marine waters, roughly triangular in shape, of Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste. It is therefore greater than the biodiversity of the Great Barrier Reef of Australia. Coastal and oceanic fisheries exploited by the littoral States of the South China Sea are also expected to benefit from these reefs.

These spawning and nursery grounds for reef fish can also be feeding grounds that support large population of oceanic and migratory fish such as several tuna species, including yellowfin and skipjack tunas. The disappearance of the reefs would offset most if not all of these benefits.

Coral reefs and international law

Under international law, it is the obligation of ‘building States’ to protect and employ sustainable management practices with respect to their construction activities in the Spratly seamounts. It is also their obligation to consult with other affected States. International law provides for clear obligations with respect to the protection and sustainable management of the Spratly seamounts, and the prevention and management of transboundary impacts from human activities:

Firstly, the Spratly seamounts and their associated species qualify for protection under a large number of hard and soft law international instruments because they meet the criteria for sensitive environments in need of protection.

Secondly, any State engaging in construction work that carries a risk of severe or irreversible damage to the local marine environment and risk transboundary damage to coral reefs and fisheries of States bordering the South China Sea must consult the affected States. They must also apply the precautionary approach and exercise due diligence in the conduct of their activities including the duty of vigilance and prevention. This would include the adoption of measures such as conducting a transparent environmental impact assessment.

Furthermore, the lack of full scientific certainty concerning the scope of potential negative impacts must not be used as a reason to defer these obligations. The existence of plausible indications of potential transboundary risks is sufficient to trigger the application of these positive obligations for any State undertaking land reclamations in the Spratlys.

States carrying out construction activities on coral reefs and seamounts in the Spratlys must avoid damaging the marine environment due to the far reaching risks to the States bordering the South China Sea. To ignore such risks could create broader complications for regional cooperation and political stability amongst the States of Southeast Asia and the southwestern Pacific.

*Youna Lyons is a Senior Research Fellow and Wong Hiu Fung, Research Assistant, in the Ocean and Policy Programme of the Centre for International Law (CIL), National University of Singapore (NUS). They contributed this specially to RSIS Commentary.

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Netanyahu On The Couch – OpEd

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There are two different opinions about Binyamin Netanyahu. It is difficult to believe that they concern the same person.

One is that Netanyahu is a shallow politician, devoid of ideas and convictions, who is led solely by his obsession to remain in power. This Netanyahu has a good voice and a talent for making shallow speeches on television, speeches devoid of any intellectual content – and that’s all.

This Netanyahu is highly “pressurable” (a Hebrew word invented almost solely for him), a man who will change his views according to political expediency, disclaiming in the evening what he has said in the morning. None of his words should be trusted. He will lie and cheat anytime to assure his survival.

The other Netanyahu is almost the exact opposite. A principled patriot, a serious thinker, a statesman who sees danger beyond the horizon. This Netanyahu is a gifted orator, able to move the US Congress and the UN plenum, admired by the great mass of Israelis.

So which of these descriptions is true?

Neither.

If it is true that the character of a person is shaped by his early childhood, we must examine the background of Netanyahu in order to understand him.

He grew up in the shadow of a strong father. Benzion Millikowsky, who changed his foreign name to the Hebrew Netanyahu, was a very dominant and very unhappy person. Born in Warsaw, then a provincial town in the Russian Empire, he immigrated to Palestine as a young man, studied history at the new Hebrew University in Jerusalem and expected to become a professor there. He was not accepted.

Benzion was the son of an early adherent of Vladimir (Ze’ev) Jabotinsky, the extreme rightist Zionist leader. He inherited from his father a very extremist outlook, and passed it on to his three sons. Binyamin was the second one. His elder brother, still a child himself, called him Bibi, and the childish appellation stuck.

Benzion’s rejection by the prestigious young Hebrew University turned him into a bitter man, a bitterness that lasted until his death in 2012, at age 102. He was sure that this rejection had nothing to do with his academic qualification, and everything with his ultra-nationalist opinions.

His extreme Zionism did not stop him leaving Palestine and seeking his academic luck in the United States, where a second-rate university gave him a professorship. His life’s work as a historian concerned the fate of the Jews in medieval Christian Spain – the expulsion and inquisition. It engendered in him a very dark world view: the conviction that Jews will always be persecuted, that all Goyim (non-Jews) hate the Jews, that a straight line connects the auto-da-fé of the Spanish inquisition with the Nazi Holocaust.

During the years, the Netanyahu family went back and forth between the US and Israel. Binyamin grew up in America, acquired perfect American English, essential for his future career, studied and became a salesman. His obvious talent for this profession attracted a Likud foreign minister, who sent him to the UN as Israeli spokesman.

Benzion Netanyahu was not only a very bitter person, who accused the Zionist and Israeli academic establishment of failing to recognize his academic stature. He was also a very autocratic family man.

The three Netanyahu boys lived in constant awe of Father. They were not allowed to make any noise at home while the Great Man worked in his closed study. They were not allowed to bring other boys home. Their mother was completely devoted to her husband and served him in every way, sacrificing her own personality.

In every family, the second child of three is in a difficult position. He is not admired like the eldest, nor indulged like the youngest. For Binyamin this was especially hard, because of the personality of the eldest.

Yonatan Netanyahu (both names mean “God has given”) seems to have been a specially blessed boy. He was good-looking, gifted, much liked, even admired. In the army, he became the commander of the revered Sayeret Matkal (“General Staff Commando Unit”) – the elite of the army’s elite.

As such he was the ground commander of the daring 1976 Entebbe commando raid in Uganda, which liberated the captive passengers of a flight hijacked by Palestinian and German guerillas on the way to Israel. Yonatan was killed and became a national hero. He was also adored by his father, who never quite accepted the qualities of his second son.

Between his father, the embittered Great Thinker, and his elder brother, the Legendary Hero, Binyamin grew up as a quiet but very ambitious boy, part Israeli, part American. He worked for some time as a furniture salesman, until he was discovered by the far-right Likud foreign minister, Moshe Arens.

Between his obsessive need to be approved by his father and to be found equal to his glorious brother, Netanyahu’s own character was forged. His father never quite appreciated him, once saying that he would make a good foreign minister, but not a prime minister.

Being his father’s son, Netanyahu incited the people against Yitzhak Rabin after the Oslo Agreement and was photographed on the speaker’s balcony during the demonstration in which a symbolic coffin of Rabin was carried around. Soon after, when Rabin was murdered, he denied all responsibility.

Rabin’s successor, Shimon Peres, failed miserably, and Netanyahu became prime minister. It was a total catastrophe. On the evening after the next elections, when it be came clear that he had lost, multitudes streamed to Tel Aviv’s central square (now named after Rabin) in a spontaneous demonstration of joy like that at the liberation of Paris.

His successor, Labor’s Ehud Barak, had no more luck. A former army Chief of Staff, admired by many and especially by himself, he compelled President Bill Clinton to convene an Israeli-Palestinian peace conference at Camp David. Barak, who was quite ignorant of Palestinian attitudes, came to dictate his terms and was shocked when they were rejected. Coming home, he declared that the Palestinians want to throw us into the sea. Hearing this, the public threw him out and elected the tough far-right general, Ariel Sharon, the founder of Likud.

Netanyahu became Minister of Finance. As such he was quite successful. Applying the neo-liberal ultra-capitalist teaching he had absorbed in the US, he made the poor poorer and the rich richer. The poor seemed to liked it.

Sharon was the father of the settlements in the West Bank. To strengthen these, he decided to give up the Gaza Strip with its few settlements, which were a disproportional drag on the army. But his unilateral retreat from the Gaza Strip shocked the rightist camp. The elder Netanyahu called the move a “crime against humanity”.

Inpatient with opposition, Sharon split the Likud and founded his own Kadima (“Forwards”) party. Netanyahu again became the leader of Likud.

As usual, he was lucky. Sharon suffered a stroke and fell into a coma, from which he never recovered. His successor, Ehud Olmert, was accused of corruption and had to resign. The next in line, Tzipi Livni, was incompetent and unable to form a government, though all the ingredients were there.

Netanyahu, the man who was kicked out just a few years earlier by the cheering masses, came back as an imperator. Again the masses cheered. Shakespeare would have loved it.

Since then, Netanyahu has been elected again and again. The last time was a clear personal victory. He vanquished all his competitors on the Right.

So who is this Netanyahu? Contrary to popular opinion, he is a man of very strong beliefs – the beliefs of his far-right father. The entire world is out to kill us at all times, we need a powerful state to defend ourselves, all of the land between the Mediterranean and the Jordan has been given us by God (whether he exists or not). Everything else is lies, subterfuges, tactics.

When, in a famous speech at Bar-Ilan university near Tel Aviv, Netanyahu embraced the principle of “Two States for Two Peoples”, those who knew him could only smile. It was as if he had recommended the eating of pork on Yom Kippur.

He dangled this statement before the eyes of the naive Americans and let his Justice Minister, Tzipi Livni, lead endless negotiations with the Palestinians, whom he despises. Whenever it seemed that the negotiations were nearing some goal, he quickly put up another condition, such us the ridiculous demand that the Palestinians recognize Israel as the Nation State of the Jewish People. He would not dream, of course, of recognizing the Palestinian territories as the Nation State of the Palestinian People – a people he does not really believe exists at all.

On the eve of the last election, just now, Netanyahu announced that there would not be a Palestinian state as long as he was in power. When the Americans remonstrated, he repudiated himself. Why not? As his Likud predecessor, Yitzhak Shamir, famously said, “It is permitted to lie for the Fatherland.”

Netanyahu will lie, cheat, repudiate himself, raise false flags – all for the purpose of achieving his one and only real goal, the Rock of our Existence (as he loves to say), the heritage of his father – the Jewish State from the sea to the river.

The trouble is that in this area, the Arabs are already the majority, a small majority, but one that is bound to grow steadily.

A Jewish and democratic state in the entire country is impossible. The popular joke has it that this is too much even for God. So He decreed that we have to choose two of the three attributes: a Jewish and democratic state in part of the country, a Jewish state in all of the country that will not be democratic, or a democratic state in all of the country that will not be Jewish.

Netanyahu’s solution to this problem is to ignore it. Just go on, enlarge the settlements, and concentrate on the immediate problem: install his fourth government and plan for his fifth, four years from now.

And, of course, show his father, who is looking down on him from heaven, that after all little Bibi, his second son, is worthy of him.

The post Netanyahu On The Couch – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Somalia: Journalist And Wife Shot Dead

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A Somali journalist and his wife were shot dead in Mogadishu, in an apparent attack by the al Shabab Islamist insurgents, though no claim has arrived yet from the group. The assailants stormed their home and killed the couple in their bedroom in the middle of the night on Thursday.

Daud ali Omar, 35, was a reporter for an independent radio in Baidoa, 220km north-west of the capital.

The National Union of Somali Journalists (NUSOJ) condemned the killing, defining it another attempt to “silence press freedom” in the country.

Somalia is among the world’s deadliest countries for media workers. Eighteen reporters were killed in 2012, followed by another 7 in 2013 and 5 last year. Omar was the first to be killed in 2015.

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Turkey: Press Freedom Declined In 2014

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By Irena Mensikova

Turkey belongs to the group of countries with the starkest declines in press freedom in 2014, the Freedom House Press Report reveals. Moreover, in this year’s issue of the Report, Turkey is classified as “not free” for journalists.

Overall, global press freedom declined in 2014 to its lowest point in more than 10 years, according to the Report released on April 29. Reasons for this decline include governments that employed tactics to silence dissent, terrorist kidnappings and the murder of journalists, organized crime, and wealthy media magnates who dominate their domestic markets and shape news according to their interests.

Disturbingly, freedom of press also significantly deteriorated in countries that boast long histories of democratic practice. Apart from Turkey, large five-year drops experienced also Thailand, Ecuador, Hong Kong, Honduras, Hungary and Serbia.

Within the Freedom House Press Report, each country and territory receives a numerical score from 0, the most free, to 100, the least free, which serves as the basis for a status indication of “Free”, “Partly Free”, or “Not Free”. For example, another country with a long democratic history, Greece, has gained 21 points within this scale due to the economic crisis and related political pressures.

Turkey’s government repeatedly tried to expand the power of the telecommunications authority to block websites without a court order. Moreover, the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) obtained vast powers of surveillance and unlimited access to virtually any information held by anyone in the country.

The Report further mentions that while a certain degree of media diversity does in fact exist in Turkey, political leaders have tried to supress once-independent sources of information and create media outlets that would work in the ruling party’s favour.

Internet access in Turkey is already restricted, and more than 67,000 websites are currently blocked, as reported by Hürriyet Daily News.

According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Belarus, Russian-annexed Crimea, Iran, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were among the world’s 10 worst-rated countries and territories when it came to press freedom. The lowest ranked country in the Balkans was Macedonia. Turkey’s overall score declined from 62 to 65.

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Competition And Cooperation – OpEd

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Competition is often used to describe market activity, and cooperation is often used to describe political activity, but competition more accurately describes politics and cooperation more accurately describes markets.

Market activity is based on voluntary exchange, and transactions take place only if all parties agree. Parties engage in voluntary exchange for their mutual benefit, which is cooperation at its finest. All parties benefit, or the transaction does not take place.

In politics, it is almost always the case that people involved have conflicting agendas, and when one side wins, the other loses. This is obvious at the national level, where the Republican Congress finds itself at odds with the Democratic president. At first it might appear that the conflict comes from party differences–Republicans versus Democrats–rather than being an inherent characteristic of politics, but a look at Florida politics provides evidence that politics leads to conflict.

Florida’s state government is solidly Republican, with a Republican governor and solid Republican majorities in both houses of the legislature. Yet, the Republican House and the Republican Senate have reached an impasse on the state’s budget, leading the Speaker of the House to adjourn three days prior to the scheduled end of the legislative session, without passing a budget.

The only thing the Florida legislature is constitutionally required to do is pass a budget, so the legislature will have to reconvene in a special session to do so. It’s not Republicans and Democrats who are disagreeing; it is Republicans who can’t reach an agreement among themselves.

They agree on almost everything, but politics causes people to focus on areas where they disagree, whereas markets cause people to focus on areas where they agree.

Their main disagreement is over Medicaid funding–an interesting story in itself–which stands in the way of their cooperating even in areas where there is no disagreement. In markets, two people could disagree about almost everything, yet cooperate because they only interact based on their mutual interests.

Think about it. When you go to a restaurant, or a store, you might disagree with your server, or store clerk, on political views, religious views, and a host of other issues; yet, it never comes up because both parties are interested in completing a mutually advantageous transaction. Meanwhile, in Florida politics, disagreement among Republican legislators on one issue keeps them from moving ahead on other issues where they do agree.

The next time you hear someone talking about competition in markets, or cooperation in politics, take a moment to consider how misleading those labels really are.

The post Competition And Cooperation – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Libya: Presumed Death Of Missing Tunisian Journalists

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Officials from the internationally recognized Libyan government said in a statement on April 29, 2015, that two Tunisian journalists who had been missing in eastern Libya since September 2014 had been killed.

The government said it obtained information about the killing of Sofiane Chourabi, a reporter, and his cameraman Nadhir Ktari at the hands of “terrorist elements” through confessions by alleged militants in its custody. The government said it did not provide any evidence due to difficulties in reaching the area where the bodies of the journalists are said to be located. The authorities also said that they had obtained information about the killings of a Libyan TV crew of five working for Al-Barqa TV, missing since August. Human Rights Watch is unable to independently verify any of the alleged killings.

Human Rights Watch has documented killings of eight journalists in Libya and attacks against dozens of others since 2012. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, Muftah al-Qatrani, a television journalist from Benghazi, was shot dead in his office on April 23, 2015, raising the number of killings to nine.

“Journalists in Libya work under difficult circumstances and risk their lives to provide the public with information denied them under the former government,” said Eric Goldstein, deputy Middle East and North Africa director. “The authorities should do all they can to resolve the fate of both groups of missing journalists and do more to protect media workers in the country.”

The Tunisian and Libyan Authorities should provide details on the fate of all missing journalists, and hold those responsible for crimes against them accountable, Human Rights Watch said. If it is confirmed that the foreign journalists have been killed, Libyan authorities should do everything possible to locate their remains and return them to their families in Tunisia. Libyan authorities should also ensure humane conditions and treatment for all detainees in their custody.

The post Libya: Presumed Death Of Missing Tunisian Journalists appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Will Germany’s Bundestag Vote For Palestine? – Analysis

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By Sam Bahour*

One way or the other, Germany’s Bundestag is about to make history with the upcoming vote on the issue of recognising Palestinian statehood. A positive vote for Palestine would finally strengthen the European Union’s weakest link in contributing to Middle East Peace. A negative vote would leave the Palestinians with no political horizon, which can only lead to more violence and/or a strategic shift where Palestinians drop their bid for statehood and convert their struggle to a total civil rights struggle. This may force a one state reality politically to match the military one state reality that Israel has had the luxury to construct, with nearly 50 years of its military occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, including East Jerusalem.

Palestine did not fall into a historic crisis due to a natural disaster. Dispossession, discrimination and prolonged military occupation was the result, to a great extent, of the colossal tragedy that befell Jews in Europe. We Palestinians are still paying the price for those acts today. It is long overdue that this manmade nightmare should end.

If the Bundestag chooses to refuse Palestinian statehood when called to act on it, this would be totally out of synchronization with the long-standing German position for two-states as a model to resolve the conflict. Germany’s political integrity is at stake.

Fear-mongers have unleashed their venom against Palestinian statehood in the discourse in Germany. By now, their mode of operation is well-known, and has failed over and over again. It failed with all 138 countries that voted overwhelmingly in favour of the 2012 Palestinian bid for observer state status in the UN (Germany abstained) and it is failing in country after country, where bilateral recognition (over 130 countries to date) of Palestine is growing by the day. With the newly re-elected Israeli prime minister winning on a campaign rally of no two-states, the burden of action now squarely sits on the lap of the international community.

Allow me to take a brief issue with the arguments made by those who urge Germany not to join the global momentum toward recognising Palestine.

They say Palestinians never missed an opportunity for peace. The fact of the matter is that the boot of Israeli occupation was never, ever removed from the neck of Palestinians to give them a fighting chance to create a new reality—not in Oslo, not in the West Bank, not in East Jerusalem, and surely not in the Gaza Strip. The unrelenting extent of Israel’s effective control over all the occupied territory is no longer an issue for debate; historical record is clear.

They say the Palestinian political body promotes extremism and violence. The fact of the matter is that it is a miracle that the Palestinians have been able to maintain any sense of a political system at all, given Israel’s systematic, forced fragmentation of the Palestinians’ geographic reality, campaign of targeted assassinations and continued policy of imprisoning Palestinian political leadership, including over a dozen democratically elected members of the legislative council.

In light of this reality on the ground, the Palestinians still beg the international community to uphold international law and UN resolutions, themselves bringing the two-state solution to the podium of the UN General Assembly for approval. What is clear is, now that the majority of the world accepts Palestinian statehood, that if key international players, Germany being on the top of the list, drop the ball of bringing Palestine into existence on the ground, no one should complain if the younger generation of Palestinians drop statehood once and for all and we are back in a cycle of never-ending violence.

They say the Palestinians’ struggle for freedom and independence is linked to the horrific events unfolding in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. The fact of the matter is that even the Israeli security establishment has acknowledged that regional events are very different and detached from what Palestinians are requesting. Actually, it is the Palestinian movement, not to mention the Palestinian refugees stuck for 60 years in the region due to Israel refusing to allow them to return home, who have the most to lose with the region engulfed in domestic and regional chaos.

They say Palestinians must be put through a test to prove our worthiness of freedom. The fact of the matter is that in the world of global governance there are no teachers and classrooms, only international law which applies to all. No excuse under the sun can justify one more day of military occupation, especially one that does not view itself as an occupation and continues to facilitate its citizens’ squatting on Palestinian lands.

In the Oslo Peace Accords, over twenty year ago, Palestinians recognized the state of Israel, in writing. In reply, Israel merely recognized the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the representative of the Palestinian people. This lopsided starting point may have contributed to the failure of the entire Oslo exercise. Today’s Germany has the opportunity to correct that historic mismatch and save the region from future violence, let alone saving Israel from itself.

The previous UK Consul General in Jerusalem, Sir Vincent Fean, addressed his country’s upcoming debate on Palestinian statehood in The Sunday Herald (Scotland) on 19 April 2015 in an article titled, “We can restore hope in a just peace for Palestine and Israel.” He wrote, “Palestinians have the right to statehood, peace with justice and hope. Israelis have the same right to live in safety, with good neighbours and shared hope. We can do what is right for both peoples. Our next Government should recognise the State of Palestine alongside Israel, to preserve the two-state solution. Failure to resolve this conflict fairly remains the best recruiting sergeant for violent extremism. We regain our balance by upholding the international law we helped to write.”

The Bundestag has a choice to make. It can continue looking backwards in history on this issue and ignore its leading role in securing peace in the Middle East, or it can courageously look forward, maybe even recognising something it owes history, and assume leadership in this debate.

*Sam Bahour is a policy adviser to Al-Shabaka, the Palestinian Policy Network

The post Will Germany’s Bundestag Vote For Palestine? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Lee Kuan Yew: The Sage And Giant From Southeast Asia – OpEd

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The late former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew may not have started warmly with Indonesia and ASEAN, but he eventually became a staunch supporter of Singapore’s large neighbour based on the trust developed with Suharto, which anchored the growth of ASEAN. How will the successor generation pursue his legacy?

By Jusuf Wanandi*

So many things have been said about Lee Kuan Yew. He was the founder of modern Singapore, a small transit harbour on the tip of the Malay Peninsula. Together with his colleagues such as Goh Keng Swee and S. Rajaratnam, he built Singapore from a Third World to a First World country in less than two generations.

Lee was the thinker and strategist of many Southeast Asian policies on the region and the world. On ASEAN, Lee was initially lukewarm, but Singapore now has become one of the many active members, while always leaning on the conservative side.

Lee Kuan Yew’s foreign policy

On his foreign policy, he was a true realist, and that is why he wanted to see a balance of power in East Asia, and achieving that purpose meant keeping the US presence in the Western Pacific. In addition, he did his best to assist China in its human resources development by training its bureaucrats and admitting students from China into Singapore’s universities. Singapore also invested substantially in China.

Singapore, after all, is a trading nation and so has to keep its relations close to China economically. Lee also watched carefully to keep relations with neighbours amicable, not only through ASEAN but also bilaterally, especially with Indonesia and Malaysia. With Indonesia, Lee managed to build a close relationship with Suharto after a frosty period of seven years, due to his rejection of Suharto’s appeal for clemency for two marines who participated in combat during Sukarno’s Konfrontasi.

Both Lee and Suharto became close as Lee was appreciative of Suharto, who dealt with him and Singapore on an equal basis. On Suharto’s part, he thought that Lee would like to help him and Indonesia. He also recognised Lee as a real partner in Southeast Asia, particularly within ASEAN. While Suharto was criticised by the Indonesian elite in the last few years of his rule, it was Lee who defended his friend and appealed to let him stay in power.

Lee’s myopic view on the relationship was that it tilted too much to government-to-government relations, especially with the military.

While this might have served Singapore’s interest as the role of the government is overpowering, for the Indonesian side that was considered inadequate – especially after Suharto stepped down. That is why Indonesia-Singapore relations remain limited, because Indonesia’s public opinion of Singapore is still somewhat negative; so far there have been no substantial efforts on the Singaporean side to deal with and relate to the non-governmental part of Indonesia.

Lee Kuan Yew and Indonesian democracy

Singapore tends to think that it is unnecessary and does not directly serve its interests, but Indonesian democracy is real and the government can do only so much. This can become acute in the future because Singapore’s investments in Indonesia have been increasing dramatically, especially in the last decade, and Singapore has become one of the big three investors in Indonesia overall.

Lee, with his sharp thinking, especially on the future of East Asia and Asia Pacific, had become the spokesperson for the region, in particular to the West, and that was indeed an important role that he played. And regarding the future strategic development of the region, no one can replace him.

I am really very fortunate to have known Lee closely during the crisis years after Suharto stepped down. He was always straight-forward in his assessments of Indonesia and Indonesia-Singapore relations, and that was his strength, which added to his credibility in the eyes of others.

People appreciated his thoughts on Indonesia and on its relations with Singapore. Sometimes he could comment on what Indonesians could not even say during the Suharto years about themselves. I learned a lot from him and will always be thankful for my guru’s words and advice.

He was the sage and giant not only for Singapore but also for the region. He should be remembered as one of our Southeast Asian leaders that did so much for the region.

Lee’s insights and leadership transformed Singapore into a developed nation. Now with a new generation, which has benefited from his creation of Singapore as a city-state, his ideas should be further adjusted, but that is the task of the new leadership he had already prepared for Singapore. Thank you, Mr. Lee!

*Jusuf Wanandi is a vice chair on the board of trustees at the CSIS Foundation in Jakarta. This commentary first appeared in The Jakarta Post. This is part of an RSIS series on the Legacy of Lee Kuan Yew.

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Hong Kong Election Reform: Will It Happen? – Analysis

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The Hong Kong government’s election reform proposal would, in theory, allow for greater flexibility and competition for the 2017 race for Chief Executive. However, with pan-democratic lawmakers vowing to veto the proposal, what are the chances of the ‘one person one vote’ elections happening?

By Dylan Loh Ming Hui*

On 22 April 2015, the Hong Kong government put before the Legislative Council its proposal for selecting the Chief Executive by universal suffrage. The government appealed to the legislature, particularly to the pan-democrats, to vote for the new election initiative which would allow over five million Hong Kongers to vote for their leader, under universal suffrage for the first time in 2017.

The electoral reform package requires a two-thirds majority approval – 47 out of 70 members – from the legislature to pass. However, pro-democracy legislators, who control 27 seats, have vowed to veto the package, threatening the proposal and ultimately the 2017 ‘one person one vote’ election. That said, the government only needs to persuade four pro-democrat lawmakers to switch sides to successfully pass the election package.

What do the changes entail?

Nominating procedures will be divided into two parts, namely the stage of “members recommendation” and the stage of “committee nomination”. Under the first ‘members recommendation” stage, any person who gets at least 120 nominating committee’s votes (out of the 1200 nominating committee) can seek to run in the Chief Executive race. No candidate will be allowed to get more than 240 votes from the Nominating Committee thus ensuring at least 5 and at most 10 people who can seek nomination.

Next, under the “committee nomination”, out of the initial pool of 5-10 candidates, the 1200 strong Nominating Committee will, through a secret ballot, select the final 2-3 candidates. The balloting process is such that each Nominating Committee member may vote for all of the candidates or/but at least two. The highest two or three persons supported by more than half of the members and with the highest votes will become official candidates for election.

Implications: obstacles for nomination

There are, however, at least three main obstacles in the nomination proposal. First, there is and will be a further erosion of trust between the government and the pro-democracy camp. This will, in essence, cut off any form of serious dialogue or negotiations moving forward. Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, has already stated that the government would not cave in to any demands, stating that there is no room for compromise.

On the one hand, the administration feels that the pro-democrats are not giving enough thought and understanding for the proposed change; and it is exasperated by the, perceived, militant and unconstructive tactics employed. On the other hand, the pro-democrats feel that the changes proposed are piecemeal ‘fake’ alterations. Joshua Wong, the student leader who became synonymous with the ‘Umbrella Revolution’, has already dismissed the reform package and vowed to conduct street protests the weekend after the proposed election reform package is announced. The unyielding positions of both camps will, ultimately, have a negative effect for governance in Hong Kong.

Second, while Beijing had largely adopted a ‘hands off’ approach during the ‘Umbrella Revolution, it will lend greater visible support to pro-Beijing elements in Hong Kong. China’s Vice President Li Yuan Chao has stated that he hopes people in the “patriotic camp” can urge citizens to support the government’s electoral reform package. Indeed, the pro-Beijing camp is not ready to let the pro-democracy camp seize the discourse on ‘democracy’ entirely. Lessons would have been learnt from the previous ‘Occupy Central’ protests and the pro-Beijing camp will be better organised, disciplined and sophisticated in their contestation with the pro-democracy activists.

Finally, the prospects of more violence cannot be ruled out in the lead-up to the proposed vote on the election reform proposal in the Legislative Council before it goes into recess on 8 July 2015. As positions gets more entrenched, stakes higher, and the rhetoric from both camps gets ratcheted up, the frustration in both camps at achieving nothing – could spill over. Indeed, after the announcement by Carrie Lam, scuffles outside the legislature broke out as pro-democracy protesters faced off with pro-Beijing demonstrators waving the Chinese flags.

Lack of viable alternatives

Vice President Li’s rallying call for Hong Kong to grasp the “historic opportunity” and take a positive, rational and pragmatic attitude to promote the city’s democratic path maybe exaggerated and a little self-serving but there is, nonetheless, a large degree of sense to his words.

While the concerns of the pro-democrats about the control of the elections by a small pro-Beijing Nominating Committee are valid, their protests have seriously stressed Hong Kong’s society and it would be irresponsible of them not to, at the very least, look seriously at the reform package proposed. Moreover, they have not managed to propose any viable set of alternatives that would be, reasonably and realistically, acceptable to the leaders in Beijing.

To successfully disrupt and do away with this election reform proposal and see that as a success would be a pyrrhic victory because it would mean adhering to the current electoral system – a far worse system than the proposed election reforms. It would also be disingenuous to claim wide public support for the pro-democracy activists’ actions: Several polls including one by the Chinese University of Hong Kong, showed Hong Kong society, generally, split down the middle while other polls indicate a greater willingness by the Hong Kong people to accept the proposed reforms.

It would be much better and more realistic for the pro-democracy camp to accept and make small incremental changes over a prolonged period of time rather than take an unrealistic ‘all or nothing’ approach.

*Dylan Loh Ming Hui is a research analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University.

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New Legislation Would Raise US Minimum Wage

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Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) on Friday joined colleagues to introduce legislation to raise the US federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $12.00 by 2020. The bill, introduced in both the House and Senate, would also gradually eliminate the sub-minimum tipped wage system and index the Federal minimum wage to keep pace with the rising median wage.

“The federal minimum wage should be a living wage,” said DeFazio. “It’s unconscionable that millions of Americans work full-time and live below the poverty level. States like Oregon raised the minimum wage above the federal level and put to rest the fear that the increase would lead to job loss.”

In 2007, Congress enacted a law phasing in an increase in the federal minimum wage to $7.25. Since the minimum wage reached $7.25 six years ago in 2009, the minimum wage has not kept pace with inflation or the growth in the median wage, resulting in low-wage workers continuing to fall behind, according to the officials backing the legislation. Instead, they argue, the real value of today’s minimum wage is less than it was in 1956.

Under the Raise the Wage Act, the Federal minimum wage would start to rise almost immediately. Beginning January 2016 or three months after the date of enactment of the Raise the Wage Act, the federal minimum wage would increase by $0.75 to $8.00 per hour, followed by $1.00 per hour increases every year until it reaches $12.00.

Starting in 2021, the Federal minimum wage would keep pace with rising wages overall through automatic annual increases to keep the ratio of the minimum wage constant with the median wage.

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