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Hersh’s Revelations Confirm Role Of Pakistan Military – OpEd

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By Mahendra Ved*

For long, the world knew of Osama bin Laden as the “most wanted” terrorist. Now, it turns out he was a sick old man, “purchased” from his Pashtun hosts by Pakistan’s intelligence, who in turn “sold” him, to be brutally killed. Denied a decent Muslim burial, Osama’s body parts were scattered over the Hindu Kush mountains.

The United States did the second ‘purchase’, paying millions to Pakistani operatives, ranging from the former Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) operative who “walked in” to the US embassy in Islamabad with information on Osama to the generals who ran Pakistan. Deals were cut at institutional and individual levels. Vulnerable Pakistanis were shifted to the US.

The title of this story ought to be “Osama Betrayed”. But it comes as a 10,000-word article by American writer Seymour Hersh, published in London Review of Books. It lays bare the role of the Americans, Pakistanis and the Saudis who financed Osama’s upkeep in the Afghanistan-Pakistan mountains and during his “house arrest” in Abbottabad.

These are revelations that nobody is likely to own up. Only bland, pro forma denials have come forth. They are like fish bones stuck in the throat that authorities in the three nations can neither swallow nor spit out.

Hersh’s account puts on its head much that was claimed in May 2011, when Osama was located and killed. His target is basically the Barack Obama administration, but he also talks of Pakistan’s perfidious role in getting rid of its ‘asset’.

The Americans played out “a political theatre” to regale audiences across the world. President Barack Obama, who cleared the risky operation, it is now alleged, reneged on an undertaking to make the elimination of Osama appear a joint US-Pakistani operation.

He took the credit and made Pakistan, especially its army, look nasty. After all, the US had paid the price to the Pakistanis when its officials sorted the matter out with the then Army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani and the ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha.

The world found it difficult to believe that Pakistan’s military leadership, beginning with then president and army chief, Gen. Pervez Musharraf and later, Generals Kayani and Pasha, was unaware of Osama’s presence in the country. After Barack Obama went public, because one of the three US helicopters had crashed in the Abbottabad operation, which could not be kept a secret, Pakistan was left fuming about the violation of its sovereignty.

While Obama ensured his re-election to White House on the shoulders of the SEALs, who had carried out the heroic operation, now dubbed as “walk-in-walk-out” smooth, Pakistan faced global odium. The delicate army-civil balance of its government went for a toss. Its army seethed in impotent anger, ready to topple, in a possible repeat of Musharraf removing Nawaz Sharif after the Kargil defeat, the hapless civilian government of Asif Zardari.

Left out of the loop, but desperate to survive, Zardari pleaded with the Americans to be saved from the clutches of the angry generals, giving rise to the “Memo Gate” that damned Zardari, leading to the sacking of Husain Haqqani, the envoy to the US, who was close to Zardari.

Significantly, there is hardly a mention of the civilian leadership of the day, simply because it did not matter. How the US ensured Zardari’s survival may be the subject of another future Hersh-like revelation.

The story raises two questions. One, is the Hersh story an American way of making a clean breast about its role in Afghanistan-Pakistan, like it did in the past in Cuba, Chile, Iran, Vietnam and other bloody wars and intelligence operations? And two, is it the way to show the minions in Pakistan their place?

For Pakistan, the Hersh story comes along that by yet another American journalist, Carlotta Gall, stationed in Af-Pak for 13 years and one who should know. She has accused Pakistan Army’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of cutting deals on Osama. More bland denials have followed.

Dawn newspaper in its editorial notes that Hersh is “largely sympathetic” to the Pakistan Army, despite exposing the deals that the generals cut to first ‘acquire’ Osama as the asset and then, on being found out, to get rid of him altogether. “It is clearly not a hatchet job on Pakistan,” it says.

This line is an indication of the Hersh story possibly being part of an unofficial de-classification process by the US.

Dawn makes three significant points. It demands to know what happened to Pakistan’s own probe. A version of the Abottabad Commission Report was leaked to Al Jazeera. There is nothing official about it. “That version alone contains a deep, systematic, even fundamental critique of the manner in which the ISI operates,” the newspaper notes.

Demanding that the report be made public, it tersely states: “National security will not be undermined by the publication of a report; national security was undermined by the presence of Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil.”

Third, it wants the military to come under the parliament’s oversight. “The military itself projects its intelligence wings as omnipresent and omniscient — surely, it is parliament that ought to be omnipotent.”

There seems little chance of that happening.

The Hersh story reinforces what is known: the role that the all-powerful Pakistan Army has played and shall continue to play. And that of the US – to ensure hold over the region, it will continue to feed Pakistan’s military machine.

*Mahendra Ved is a New Delhi-based analyst. He can be reached at contributions@spsindia.in

The post Hersh’s Revelations Confirm Role Of Pakistan Military – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Sri Lanka: Sirisena Says No Room Will Be Left For Misuse Of Power

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Sri Lanka’s President Maithripala Sirisena addressing the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) Polonnaruwa District Conference held at Polonnaruwa “Buddhi Mandapaya” yesterday (May 17) asked SLFPers whether they thought it would be right on his part, if he used his presidential powers to extended the term of office of Local Government bodies (Pradeshiya Sabhas).

“I can extend the term by one year and gazette it. If I gazetted the extension of Pradeshiya Sabhas, what sort of an influence would it have brought upon the people’s right to vote to elect their members to a Local Government after the end of its official term, following a period of four years?” asked President Sirisena.

“The Constitution clearly sets out that the term of office of a Local Government is four years. Following that, voters can elect a new council. What this means is by extending the term of office of the Local Government, you also take away the rights of the voters with it,” President Sirisena said.

“This is one change. There shall be no misuse of power. If there were instances to that effect in the past, I am going to rectify them,” the President further stated.

Government allocations will be allowed for public development activities but not for personal activities aimed at getting votes, the President said. He said politics will be used to build the country but not to glorify personalities.

Speaking further, the President said he would commit himself to build a new political culture for the benefit of the people. He said that he will represent himself to solve the problems of the people and he will not act on the personal agenda of certain people. He also stated that the people friendly programme will be further strengthened.

The President recalled that the anticipated changes of the people for the last 37 years to remove the unlimited powers of the Executive Presidency have now been made. “Similar to the strengthening of the freedom and democracy in the country, the democracy within the Sri Lanka Freedom Party will also be strengthened to empower the members of the party” he said.

The post Sri Lanka: Sirisena Says No Room Will Be Left For Misuse Of Power appeared first on Eurasia Review.

New Test Can Detect Drug Use From Fingerprint

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Research published today in the journal Analyst has demonstrated a new, noninvasive test that can detect cocaine use through a simple fingerprint. For the first time, this new fingerprint method can determine whether cocaine has been ingested, rather than just touched.

Led by the University of Surrey, a team of researchers from the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NL), the National Physical Laboratory (UK), King’s College London (UK) and Sheffield Hallam University (UK), used different types of an analytical chemistry technique known as mass spectrometry to analyse the fingerprints of patients attending drug treatment services. They tested these prints against more commonly used saliva samples to determine whether the two tests correlated. While previous fingerprint tests have employed similar methods, they have only been able to show whether a person had touched cocaine, and not whether they have actually taken the drug.

“When someone has taken cocaine, they excrete traces of benzoylecgonine and methylecgonine as they metabolise the drug, and these chemical indicators are present in fingerprint residue,” said lead author Dr Melanie Bailey from the University of Surrey. “For our part of the investigations, we sprayed a beam of solvent onto the fingerprint slide (a technique known as Desorption Electrospray Ionisation, or DESI) to determine if these substances were present. DESI has been used for a number of forensic applications, but no other studies have shown it to demonstrate drug use.”

Researchers believe that the applications for this test could be far-reaching. Drug testing is used routinely by probation services, prisons, courts and other law enforcement agencies. However, traditional testing methods have limitations. For example, blood testing requires trained staff and there are privacy concerns about urine testing. Where bodily fluids are tested, there can be biological hazards and often a requirement for particular storage and disposal methods. Often these tests also require analysis off-site.

“The beauty of this method is that, not only is it non-invasive and more hygienic than testing blood or saliva, it can’t be faked,” added Dr Bailey. “By the very nature of the test, the identity of the subject is captured within the fingerprint ridge detail itself.”

It is anticipated that this technology could see the introduction of portable drug tests for law enforcement agencies to use within the next decade.

“We are only bound by the size of the current technology. Companies are already working on miniaturised mass spectrometers, and in the future portable fingerprint drugs tests could be deployed. This will help to protect the public and indeed provide a much safer test for drug users,” said Dr Bailey.

The post New Test Can Detect Drug Use From Fingerprint appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Xi’an, Buddhism And Modi – Analysis

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By Kashi Ram Sharma*

By this month end, Prime Minister Narendra Modi completes one year in office. The May 14-16 visit to China was his 16th visit to a foreign land in pursuit of goals of Indian foreign policy. Modi during his tours makes it a point to visit historical sights of cultural and religious importance. Modi claims there is a bit of Buddhism in his Gujarati DNA. The first leg of his China visit shall take him to Xi’an, the capital city of Shaanxi province which is also President Xi Jinping’s native place. Modi made Xi “feel at home” in Ahmedabad, in Gujarat, and now it is Xi’s turn to make Modi “feel at home” in Xi’an.

The city of Xi’an is known in Chinese history as Chang’an, which had been the capital at one time or other, of 12 dynasties over a period of 1,200 years. The city is bound by mountains and located at the confluence of Wei and Jing rivers. Like all historical cities, towns and even villages, Xi’an is gated by boundary walls which are as old as the city. If Modi has to make an impact on the minds of the Chinese, he shall have to exorcise this “Big Wall mentality” of Chinese leaders. Xi’an is also the birth place of Chinese Buddhism. It also has strong historical links with Buddhism. Let us recall those links.

Fa Xian (Fa-hsien: A.D. 4th-5th century), the Chinese Buddhist monk who came to India in AD 399 in search of Buddhism, came from Xi’an. Fa Xian spent 15 years on his journey and wrote his famous book ‘A Record of Buddhist Countries’ in Chinese called Fo-kuo chin. He came to India through the land route – Gobi desert, through Central Asia, to Kandahar in Afghanistan, and from there to the north Indian plains – and left for home in 411 AD taking a ship from Calcutta. He went to Xi’an via Sri Lanka and Sumatra. He carried about 1,000 Buddhist books with him, including the scriptures and sutras. He spent the remaining years of his life translating these sacred books of Buddhism.

Xuan Zang (Hsuang-tsang 602-664 A.D), was the second most important Chinese Buddhist monk who came to India in search of Buddhism. He also started his journey to India from Xi’an. He was in India from 629 to 645 AD. He visited and sojourned at all the places of Buddhist importance in India. Xuan Zang was a scholar- in-residence at the famous Buddhist university of Nalanda. Again, the records of his journey are our indispensable original source of information about India and the Buddhist kingdoms in Central Asia. He carried about 700 scriptures, sutras and books on Buddhism with him. When he arrived back in Xi’an, he was received by the Tang emperor in person. It was this Chinese Buddhist monk who converted the Tang emperor Tai Zong (T’ai-tsung) to Buddhism. The remaining 19 years of his life, he spent in Xi’an in translating 657 manuscripts from Sanskrit into Chinese.

It was on the basis of Xuan Zang’s travel accounts that the famous Chinese novel ‘Journey to the West’ (Xi-you ji) was written. This world famous novel was authored by Wu Chengen (1500-1582 AD). The storyline of this novel has a magical monkey who converted himself from Taoism to Buddhism and helped Xuan Zang to surmount all the odds. There is hardly a literate Chinese and who has not read this novel. These novels, the western country (India), Buddhism, and Xuan Zang have become house-hold words in China.

Both the Chinese monk scholars – Fa Xian and Xuan Zang – who came to India in search of Buddhism started their respective pilgrimages from Xi’an and also culminated their journey at Xi’an. To commemorate their seminal contributions to the cause of Buddhism, Xi’an constructed a series of Buddhist pagodas. There is need to mention two famous pagodas of Xi’an. These are ‘The Big Wild Goose Pagoda’ and ‘The Small Wild Goose Pagoda’. These pagodas are modeled on the pattern of Buddhist stupas in India.

The Big Wild Goose Pagoda was built by the Chinese emperor Gao Zong in 652 A.D. at the request of Xuan Zang. All the 657 Buddhist sacred manuscripts and sutras which Xuan Zang carried from India are housed in this pagoda. In the year 701-704 A.D., this pagoda was enlarged to a 10-storey structure. It is one of finest examples of Chinese architecture. It is in this pagoda that Chinese President Xi Jinping shall be receiving Modi on May 14. This will be China’s pay-back of “feel at home” to Modi. Again, it is in this pagoda – the Big Wild Goose Pagoda – that the Indian prime minister shall be offering his respects to Buddhism and Xuan Zang. These moments should be the finest moments for India to project her soft power.

If one were to identify one Indian (or person of Indian origin) who has devoted his or her genius and whole life to the cause of Buddhism in China, then, without any two opinions, one has to mention Kumārajīva (334-413 A.D.). Kumārajīva, of Indian parentage, was born in Tarim Basin (modern Xinjiang) of Central Asia. He had studied Buddhism in Kashmir and Kashgar and he was a scholar extraordinary in Chinese, Sanskrit and Pali. At the order of the emperor, Kumārajīva was forcefully taken to Xi’an in the year 401 AD.

In Xi’an, he trained about 1,000 Chinese scholars in Sanskrit and Buddhism. Kumārajīv compiled a catalogue of 611 Buddhist texts available in China. He translated about 98 Buddhist texts himself. The most important Buddhist text he translated was the famous Lotus Sutra of Mahayana School. It won’t be an exaggeration to say that it was Kumārajīva and his works on Mahayana Buddhism which laid the foundations of Buddhism in China. The great ideas of Buddhism travelled through the famous Silk Route. There was a Fa Xian because there was a Kumārajīva.

Travelling through the Silk Route, Buddhism started penetrating in to China in the first century AD. From India it travelled to Central Asia and from Central Asia and Kashmir it travelled to China. It was Theravada or Hinayana Buddhism which reached Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia while it was Mahayana Buddhism which reached China, Japan and Korea. Traders on the Silk Route became the messengers of Buddha’s teachings.

If globalization means the spread and acceptance of “Great Ideas” then, Asia became globalized much before Europe. Time has come when the “Great Ideas” can and should again travel on this route. Buddhism reached its zenith in the 8th century in China. China’s rulers, literati, elite and the common folks accepted Buddhism. China’s philosophy, arts, culture, architecture, scriptures, poetry, literature and in fact every aspect of Chinese civilization is hugely influenced by Buddhism. It is a truism that Buddhism changed China. However, it is equally true that Chinese also changed Buddhism. When two “Great Ideas” meet – in this case Confucianism and Taoism from China and Buddhism from India, they clash and converge.

Those of us who underline only ‘clash of civilizations’ are antagonists while those of us who underline ‘convergence of civilizations’ are synthesizers. Without being immodest, it can be argued that in this ‘exchange of civilizations’ – India was the teacher and China was the learner. In what way China changed Buddhism? In what way China incorporated ‘essential Buddhism’ in her way of life? Various schools of Mahayana Buddhism developed in China, one of the most prominent was ‘Dhyan Buddhism’ which reached Japan, Korea and several other countries in the cultural zone of China’s civilizational influence. In Japan, it became Zen Buddhism. This time, China was the teacher and the countries that adopted Buddhism were the students.

When China came into contact and clash with Western powers (1840s’ onwards), she started losing faith in her own civilizational legacy. Men like Sun Yat-Sen were exceptions. Chinese communists disowned and denounced Confucian, Taoist and Buddhist legacy. Mao and his radical associates argued – argued less and propagated more – that. Marxism–Maoism is an alternate civilization. This proved hollow. Mao is dead. Maoism became a nightmare. China realized that she badly needs some soft power. After accumulating a lot of hard power, China is on her way to earn some soft power. Hence, the big return of Confucianism and Buddhism in China. Can India play some role? I am certain that by projecting her huge corpus of soft power, Buddhism, Bapu’s legacy of Satyagraha and non-violence, India’s multi-culturalism, positive secularism and finally India’s tryst with democracy – India can again act as teacher to China. It is for Modi to take the call.

*Professor (Retd) Kashi Ram Sharma, Department of East Asian Studies, University of Delhi, can be reached at contributions@spsindia.in.

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Leaving Serbia And Kosovo To Settle Things Themselves? – Analysis

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The EU may just leave it to Serbia and Kosovo by sorting out their economic relations – opportunities exist for Serbia to play a significant role via the eventual settling of competing claims – and to Kosovo Serbs by somehow leavening Kosovo politics by working with moderate Albanians.  Could this work?

By Gerard M. Gallucci*

While not the most unstable region in the world, the non-EU Balkans is in pretty bad shape right now.  Edward Joseph has just suggested that soon, the EU and US may be forced to account for “losing” the region.  At the core of the problems are three factors: unsettled status issues, troubled economies mired in inefficiency and corruption and the utter bankruptcy of EU and US efforts since 1990 to help resolve these matters.  Nowhere is this more true than in the tangled realities of Serbia and Kosovo.

US policy toward the looming break-up of the Balkans in 1990 was conflicted.  Washington pursued three incompatible objectives:  the continued territorial integrity of Yugoslavia, support for “democracy” in the form of urging Belgrade to allow increased republic autonomy and support for “human rights” of Kosovo Albanians.  With the determined efforts of Slovenia (supported by the newly uniting Germany) towards independence, the end of the League of Communists as an integrating force, the rise of nationalist leaders in Croatia and Serbia, and Milosevic’ reckless efforts to beat reasonable Kosovo Albanians into nationalist separatists, this was doomed to failure.  Thereafter, US policy was to leave the problems to the Europeans and locals as much as possible.  (Thus the late rise to do anything preventive vis-a-vis the various Balkan conflicts of 1991-99.)

The EU’s policy was first to claim a certain form of leadership – led by Germany – in quickly recognizing Slovenia and Croatia – and eventually by gleefully accepting the handover of the UN’s rule of law mandate for Kosovo in 2008.  To make a long story short, the EU proved feckless and left messes behind in Bosnia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo.  (An interesting question might be to ask why Europe was quick to bring in the non-Ottoman parts of the former Yugoslavia while hanging the others out to dry.)  The EU’s fallback approach was to muddle through.

In part to erase the stain left by letting the UN flounder in Bosnia, the US led NATO into the 1999 bombing of Serbia to end Milosevic’ effort to retain Kosovo.  But few in the US government actually foresaw that the end of the process would leave behind an “independent” state with the UN and NATO left holding the bag.  But the Kosovo Albanians were determined and ready to push the internationals when necessary.  “Standards before status” went overboard after the clearly planned violence of March 2004.

By 2008, Washington was glad to leave Kosovo to the EU after leading the territory to “independence.”  But the EU (and its Rule of Law Mission, EULEX) failed to settle the status issue with Serbia or to improve governance and economic sustainability.  So the US assisted in NATO/EULEX efforts to attempt to subdue the northern Kosovo Serbs through force.  This would have resolved “status” by delivering all of Kosovo to Pristina and appeased the Albanians.  (Appeasing the Kosovo Albanians was long a US method of retaining enough influence to be able to “control” them.)  By 2013, it was clear that would not work.  The EU then went into gear by making it clear to Belgrade that it stood no chance of getting into the EU – a seeming economic necessity for a Serbia still emerging from the wreckage of the Yugoslav economy – unless it gave up Kosovo.  The “Brussels dialogue” with Pristina would be the mechanism for easing Serbia toward that goal.

Now the end of that dialogue may be approaching.  The current Serbian government – descended from Chetnik nationalists – has used the dialogue to channel its actions to turn over the Kosovo Serbs to Pristina in phases.  The southern Kosovo Serbs had nowhere else to go and made their peace already.  The northern Kosovo Serbs will be pushed into an Association of Kosovo Serb municipalities that has little real commitment from Pristina.  (Belgrade appears to have little interest in negotiating the details of the Association.  Some Kosovo Serbs also fear Belgrade plans to cut off their funding even though it would be allowed under the Ahtisaari Plan.)  Nothing much has been said about the various economic issues such as what happens to Gazivoda or Trepca or about settling land and boundary issues.

By the end of this year, Serbia may have met all the EU’s requirements to “open chapters” in EU membership talks by cutting links to Kosovo.  (The chapters are still “closed” as the EU keeps the pressure on.)  But in truth, the EU will be in no hurry to bring Serbia forward (or Bosnia, Macedonia or Montenegro).  Germany wants no more problems.  This would be bad for Serbia not only economically but politically as well.  All mainstream Serbian parties now support the EU option.  Should that not materialize even after surrendering Kosovo, to where would the political center shift?

The ultimate irony may be that Serbs may be left with the responsibility of somehow making Kosovo work.  Kosovo is not a self-sustaining entity.  Left to itself, it will require continued economic assistance and political mentoring.  Without, Kosovo will serve as an engine for exporting people, jihadists and regional violence (as recently in Macedonia).  The US has lost major patience with the Kosovo Albanians.  It will not tolerate any who seek to stir instability elsewhere and will continue to play a role in ensuring a moderate government in Pristina.  But it will look to the EU to provide the economic assistance (and to absorb those who migrate).  The EU may just leave it to Serbia and Kosovo by sorting out their economic relations – opportunities exist for Serbia to play a significant role via the eventual settling of competing claims – and to Kosovo Serbs by somehow leavening Kosovo politics by working with moderate Albanians.  Could this work?

*Gerard M. Gallucci is a retired US diplomat and UN peacekeeper. He worked as part of US efforts to resolve the conflicts in Angola, South Africa and Sudan and as Director for Inter-American Affairs at the National Security Council. He served as UN Regional Representative in Mitrovica, Kosovo from July 2005 until October 2008 and as Chief of Staff for the UN mission in East Timor from November 2008 until June 2010. He has a PhD in political science, taught at the University of Pittsburgh, University of Arkansas, George Washington University and Drake University and now works as an independent consultant.

The post Leaving Serbia And Kosovo To Settle Things Themselves? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US Bombers To Australia – OpEd

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The language never reflects the actual conduct. Deploying weapons to a region in greater numbers is not seen as provocative, even if placing such items in a theatre of operations is bound to get neighbours nervous. This is particularly the case about the US “rebalance” in the Asia-Pacific. “The ongoing deliberations,” notes John J. Hamre of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, “are shaped more by the legacy of the past (for example arguing about where to relocate particular facilities) than by the security imperatives of the next thirty years.”

In the background, China lurks as both threat and opportunity – as long as the appropriate moves are made on its part to accommodate the wishes of Washington and its allies. Grow and flourish, by all means but do so within neatly demarcated parameters of power interests. Enemies can be refashioned and rebranded overnight, even if they do tend to hold the credit strings.

This is the backdrop of the remarks made last week by David Shear, the US Defence Department’s Assistant Secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs. Before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday, Shear explained that Washington would “be placing additional air force assets in Australia as well, including B-1 bombers and surveillance aircraft.” This was in addition to the further deployment of military and marine units in the Western Pacific. Were these the bugles of war sounding?

“We will have a very strong presence, very strong continued posture throughout the region to back our commitments to our allies, to protect and work with our partners and to continue ensuring peace and stability in the region, as well as back our diplomacy vis-à-vis China on the South China Sea.”

A few trembles could be felt at this announcement in Canberra, despite the continuing fantasy on the part of officials down under that the US presence in the region somehow acts as one of stability. “I see the greater presence of the US in our part of the world as a force of stability,” insisted Prime Minister Tony Abbott. “Australia’s alliance with the US is a force for stability.” Naturally, the alliance wasn’t “aimed at anyone” in particular.

This is a point reiterated by the policy wonks and members of the Obama administration while insisting that US power is fundamental. As Vice President Joe Biden observed in August 2011 to members of the 3rd Marine Regiment at Marine Corps Base Hawaii, “We are a resident Pacific power and we intend to stay that way. We are not going away.”

While the Abbott government, like other Australian ones before it, happily endorse a form of bottom feeding lackey status, the presence of strategic bombers may have been a step too far, at least for now. The reality remains that any country silly enough to host powerful, strategic powers is bound to be inviting itself as a target, not of stability, but concerted instability.

The US-Australian defence agreement countenances the presence of American troops to operate in the Northern Territory on a rotational basis. This is a form of semantics in action – the Australian defence minister, Kevin Andrews, refuses to accept that the marines have bases in Australia. They are merely “based” for six-month periods. A spokesman for the minister even went so far as to claim that the agreement “does not allow US bases to be established in Australia.” False autonomy and sovereignty is thereby maintained.

As far as the bombers were concerned, the Prime Minister made inquiries. “I’ve sought some information about the testimony provided in Washington by an official. I understand that the official misspoke and that the US does not have any plans to base those aircraft in Australia.” A spokeswoman for the US embassy in Canberra followed up by saying that there were “no plans to rotate B-1 bombers or surveillance aircraft in Australia.”

This form of parrying and dismissal forms the staple of diplomatic deception. It is very unlikely that Shear misspoke at all, expressing, in a moment of utmost clarity, US ambitions and goals in the Asia-Pacific area. After all, the expansion of US interests was already being considered in July by General Herbert Carlisle, chief of the US Airforce in the Pacific. In time, the US would send “fighters, tankers, and at some point in the future maybe bombers, on a rotational basis” to Australia.

What goes on in Washington tends to provide a better barometric reading as to what happens in Canberra – notably when it comes to the deployment of US marines and other military assets. The Australian view on the subject is nigh irrelevant.

The only issue, then, is what consequences issue forth from such statements and consequent actions. The 2012 CSIS report on the subject of how the Pentagon’s posture in the Asia-Pacific region should be directed found confusion and discontinuity, a patchwork of inconsistencies. “DoD needs to explain the purposes of force posture adjustments in the light of the new security challenges in the Asia Pacific region.”

There may be nothing so vile as a manufactured consensus when it comes to policy, but the pundits and planners continue to do so in those capitals worried about the shift of power taking place in Asia. The latest, if seemingly inconsistent round of promised military deployments are ominous, but those in Beijing will have anticipated them. A response is bound to come in due course.

The post US Bombers To Australia – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Retired Justice John Paul Stevens Calls For Compensation For 57 Cleared Guantánamo Prisoners Still Held – OpEd

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Last week, as three prominent Democratic Senators — Patrick Leahy, Dianne Feinstein and Dick Durbin — wrote to President Obama urging him to take urgent action to release the 57 men still held at Guantánamo who have been approved for release by high-level governmental review boards, and who, for the most part, have been waiting over five years to be freed, Justice John Paul Stevens, a Supreme Court Justice from 1975 until his retirement in 2010, made a speech at which he not only urged the release of these men, but also suggested that some of them may be due compensation for their long and ultimately unjustifiable ordeal. The 57 men make up almost half of the total of 122 men still held, and include, prominently, Shaker Aamer, the last British resident in the prison.

This is not, of course, the first time that former Justice Stevens, who is now 95 years old, has dealt with Guantánamo. When he retired, SCOTUSblog — the official Supreme Court blog — ran a series of articles about him, and in one of these articles, “Justice Stevens, Guantánamo, and the Rule of Law,” Daniel A. Farber, a law professor at Berkeley who clerked for him in 1976, explained the importance of his role in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 Supreme Court rulings that granted the prisoners habeas corpus rights (Rasul v. Bush in June 2004 and Boumediene v. Bush in June 2008, which I wrote about here), and that dealt with the legality — or rather the lack of it — of the military commission trial system at Guantánamo (Hamdan v. Rumsfeld in 2006).

Justice Stevens wrote the majority opinion in Rasul v. Bush, in which, almost two and a half years after Guantánamo opened, and after a long journey through the lower courts, the Supreme Court “held that the habeas statute covered Guantánamo,” and turned down the Bush administration’s argument that the prison was on foreign soil. Although Congress then passed legislation that purported to block the prisoners’ habeas rights, the ruling allowed lawyers to take on prisoners as clients, and to visit the prison, breaking through the veil of secrecy that had allowed torture and other forms of abuse to proceed unchecked.

Farber noted that “Justice Stevens’s Rasul opinion carefully dissected the precedents on habeas jurisdiction outside the United States,” adding, “The result was a pivotal ruling in terms of the rights of the Guantanamo detainees, who would otherwise have had no access to federal courts in which to challenge their treatment.” Moreover, in steering the court towards justice, Justice Stevens had had to deal with three prominent opponents, Justice Scalia, then-Chief Justice Rehnquist, and Justice Thomas, who all dissented from the majority opinion.

Farber’s article continued:

Two years later, in Hamdan v. Rumsfeld, Justice Stevens led the Court in overturning the Bush Administration’s efforts to evade legal restrictions. His opinion built on Rasul and also showed that the Court was not inclined to acquiesce to congressional or presidential efforts to limit its jurisdiction … In an opinion by Justice Stevens, the Court held that the President lacked the power to establish military tribunals under congressional enactments and under the Geneva Conventions. Specifically, the Court held that the military commission convened to try Salim Ahmed Hamdan, who allegedly served as Osama bin Laden’s driver and bodyguard, lacked the power to proceed because its structure and procedures violated both the Geneva Conventions and the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

Writing for the majority, Justice Stevens also reasoned that regardless of whether Hamdan had been charged with an offense generally cognizable by military commissions, the commission here did not have the authority to proceed because its procedures were illegal. Summarizing the Court’s holding, Justice Stevens said that “in undertaking to try Hamdan and subject him to criminal punishment, the Executive is bound to comply with the rule of law that prevails in this jurisdiction.”

Hamdan, specifically, led to Congress passing the Military Commissions Act of 2006, which purported to remove the right to habeas corpus for any “alien detained by the United States who has been determined by the United States to have been properly detained as an enemy combatant or is awaiting such determination.” This ruling built on the Detainee Treatment Act of 2005, which sought to prevent lawyers for the Guantánamo prisoners filing any new habeas petitions, and led to court challenges about whether or not the law applied retroactively to petitions filed between the passage of Rasul and the passage of the DTA.

As Farber pointed out, however, “Congress’s decision to step into the detainee issue did not deter the Court,” which “struck down the MCA’s jurisdiction-stripping provision in Boumediene v. Bush.” He added, In an opinion by Justice Kennedy, the Court held that the United States’ de facto sovereignty over Guantanamo was sufficient to bring it within the scope of the constitutional guarantee of habeas and that the MCA was therefore a violation of the Suspension Clause of the Constitution. Justice Stevens joined Justice Kennedy’s opinion and did not write separately. But as a concurrence by Justice Souter explained, Boumediene was a predictable extension of Justice Stevens’s opinion in Rasul.

Farber also wrote:

Technically, Rasul rested on statutory grounds whereas Boumediene rested on constitutional grounds, but the language in Rasul suggested fundamental objections to depriving detainees of habeas protections. Thus, as the concurring Justices said, “[N]o one who reads the Court’s opinion in Rasul could seriously doubt that the jurisdictional question must be answered the same way in purely constitutional cases, given the Court’s reliance on the historical background of habeas generally in answering the statutory question.”

Farber also noted that, in “a vehement if not intemperate dissent, Justice Scalia  played to the galleries with an angry proclamation that the Court’s decision would ‘almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed,’ and that the ‘Nation will live to regret what the Court has done today.’”

The result of Boumediene was not as Justice Scalia predicted, and, between October 2008 and May 2010, 32 men subsequently had their habeas petitions granted, and were freed. Unfortunately, the fearmongering and distortions aired by Justice Scalia were picked up by appeals court judges, who essentially shut down habeas for the prisoners in a series of rulings in 2010 and 2011 that overturned a number of successful petitions, and made sure that all new petitions were turned down.

Unfortunately, by this point, Justice Stevens had retired, and when these prisoners appealed to the Supreme Court, they were turned down. It is, I think, no exaggeration to say that, had Justice Stevens not retired, the Supreme Court might, once more, have addressed issues relating to the prisoners. As Daniel Farber noted, “Although the post-9/11 cases reflect special concerns relating to national security and presidential power, they also reflect preexisting disputes among the Justices about how to interpret statutes involving habeas jurisdiction. Justice Stevens’s support for habeas was not an ad hoc attempt to check the Bush Administration, but instead rested on a deeper commitment to ensuring access to the courts.”

In his speech in Washington, D.C. on May 4, which I have transcribed below, Justice Stevens began by speaking about the extent to which fear dictates important decision-making processes, and reminded his audience of how, in the Second World War, fear led to the mass internment of US citizens of Japanese ancestry.

Moving on to Guantánamo, Justice Stevens referred to two similar decisions: the decision to set up a prison at Guantánamo “to perform functions that either could be performed effectively on the mainland, or should not have been performed at all, and the later decision to prohibit the transfer of any person detained at Guantánamo to the United States.”

Justice Stevens added that, “Just as the Congress ultimately recognised that the fear-inspired decision made at the outset of that war was mistaken, in time our leaders will acknowledge that some or all of those 57 detainees are entitled to some sort of reparation,” a bold statement, given that one of the primary functions of government lawyers is to constantly find ways to prevent accountability for any government actions, in large part to prevent compensation claims. Nevertheless, I am delighted to hear such a prominent figure as Justice Stevens state that “some or all” of the 57 men approved for release are “entitled to some sort of reparation.”

Justice Stevens added that he was not suggesting that every Guantánamo prisoner is “entitled to compensation,” ruling out, for example, “those who have been convicted by a military commission.” However, as he added, those “who have been deemed not a security threat to the United States and have thereafter remained in custody for years are differently situated.”

In the rest of his speech, Justice Stevens discussed a more detailed legal issue — one “requiring government to provide appropriate remedies for constitutional wrongs committed by their agents,” and for both those agents and their superiors to be given “immunity from personal liability” when they undertake their public responsibilities.

I hope you find Justice Stevens’ speech interesting, and will share it if you do. With no one released from Guantánamo for over four months, the 57 men still held who have been approved for release need as much support as possible, and the release of this speech is timely, coming, as it did, around the same time that Senators Leahy, Feinstein and Durbin wrote to President Obama to call for the release of the 57 men approved for release but still held.

Justice John Paul Stevens (Ret.)

Lawyers for Civil Justice Membership Meeting
St. Regis Hotel, Washington, D.C., May 4, 2015

Reflections About the Sovereign’s Duty to Compensate Victims Harmed by Constitutional Violations

Fear plays a more important role in the process of making important decisions at the outset of international hostilities than is often recognized. That emotion sometimes leads to erroneous decisions that do far more harm than good. President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s decision to approve the mass relocation and internment of thousands of American citizens of Japanese ancestry during World War II is a vivid example of such a decision.

The hardships caused by that decision prompted Congress to enact the American Japanese Claims Act of 1948, permitting Japanese Americans to apply for compensation for property losses suffered as a result of their relocation. The $37 million disbursed pursuant to that statute, however, represented  only a small fraction of the harms suffered by the internees. It was not until 1976, when Gerald Ford acknowledged that the internment was “wrong” and a “national mistake” that “shall never be repeated” that most Americans became fully aware of the magnitude of the error. Congress subsequently enacted the Civil Liberties Act of 1988, which provided financial redress of $20,000 for each surviving internee, totaling $1.2 billion. The statute included an official apology acknowledging that “a grave injustice [had been] done to both citizens and permanent residents of Japanese ancestry.” A few years later Congress authorised the construction of the memorial on new jersey Avenue, a few blocks from the Capitol. That monument should serve as a reminder of the need to be especially vigilant when fear provides the primary motivation for an important decision.

Today I plan to say a few words about two such decisions: the decision to use facilities at the naval base in Guantánamo, Cuba to perform functions that either could be performed effectively on the mainland, or should not have been performed at all, and the later decision to prohibit the transfer of any person detained at Guantánamo to the United States. I shall also comment on a mistake made by the Supreme Court in a detention case, and propose a remedy that would minimize the risk of similar mistakes in future.

I

Since January 2002, when the government began using Guantánamo as a detention facility, almost 800 individuals have been detained there. About two-thirds of them were released when George W. Bush was President. Of the 242 prisoners being detained when Barack Obama took office, 115 more have been released, reducing the present population to just over 120. Both of those Presidents have stated publicly that the entire facility should be closed. That is also the view of Cliff Sloan, the State Department’s former envoy who wrote a persuasive op-ed piece in the New York Times four months ago in which he quoted a high ranking security official from one of our staunchest allies as stating: “The greatest single action the United States can take to fight terrorism is to close Guantánamo.” In that article, Cliff also described the cost of maintaining the facility as “eye-popping” — he estimated that it is around $3 million per detainee as compared with roughly $75,000 at a supermax prison in the United States. While I whole-heartedly agree with the view that we should put an end to our wasteful extravagance as promptly as possible, a sub-segment of the Guantánamo population is most directly relevant to a change in the law that I shall propose.

There are 50 detainees who were approved for transfer more than five years ago and an additional seven who were more recently approved. All of them received approval from six executive departments and agencies — the Department of Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence, the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of State. These six agencies agree that none of the 57 detainees poses a significant security threat to the United States. Despite concluding that these 57 individuals should be transferred out of Guantánamo, the government continues to claim legal authority to detain them as unprivileged enemy belligerents.

One of the reasons that they remain in custody is that Congress has enacted a flat ban on the transfer of any Guantánamo detainee to the United States for any reason whatsoever. Another reason is that Congress has imposed restrictions on the President ‘s ability to transfer detainees to foreign countries. Before such a transfer can occur, the Secretary of Defense must send congressional committees a letter thirty days beforehand explaining that the receiving country has taken or will take steps to “substantially mitigate the risk” that the individual will engage in hostilities against the United States. The Secretary must further explain why the transfer is in the national security interests of the United States. These onerous provisions have hindered the President’s ability to close Guantánamo, make no sense, and have no precedent in our history. Congress’s actions are even more irrational than the detention of Japanese American citizens during World War II.

Just as the Congress ultimately recognized that the fear-inspired decision made at the outset of that war was mistaken, in time our leaders will acknowledge that some or all of those 57 detainees are entitled to some sort of reparation. Of course, I by no means suggest that every Guantánamo detainee, such as those who have been convicted by a military commission, is entitled to compensation. But detainees who have been deemed not a security threat to the United States and have thereafter remained in custody for years are differently situated.

II

The Supreme Court decision that I have described as a mistake was Justice Kennedy’s opinion for the five-justice majority in Ashcroft v. Iqbal, 556 U.S. 662 (2009). Iqbal was a citizen of Pakistan and a Muslim, who was arrested in the United States and detained by federal officials shortly after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. He was found guilty of violations of our immigration laws and deported. Thereafter he brought suit against numerous federal officials alleging that he had been mistreated while he was incarcerated in a maximum security unit in Brooklyn. He was one of 184 “high interest” detainees suspected of complicity in the terrorist attacks. His complaint described unconstitutionally harsh treatment, motivated by hostility to his religion. Among the many officials who he named as defendants were John Ashcroft and Robert Mueller, who had been the Attorney General of the United States and Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation while Iqbal was allegedly being abused. Assuming arguendo that Iqbal had been injured by unconstitutional conduct, Ashcroft and Mueller moved to dismiss the complaint against them on the ground that it had not adequately alleged their responsibility for the adoption of the policy. The District Court denied the motion and the Court of Appeals unanimously affirmed. The Supreme Court, however, reversed by a vote of five to four.

In his opinion for the majority, Justice Kennedy pointed out that Ashcroft and Mueller could not be held liable on a theory of respondeat superior; they were responsible for their own conduct, but not for that of their agents. And the opinion seems to suggest that the unconstitutionality of the policy depended on its having been motivated by hostility to Iqbal’s race or religion. The Court held that his allegations had not “nudged” his claims of invidious discrimination “across the line from conceivable to plausible.” In contrast, in his dissent Justice Souter discounted the importance of the motive for the policy; he reasoned that Ashcroft and Mueller would be liable if they knew about the alleged harsh policy and were “deliberately indifferent” to its provision. While I remain convinced by Justice Souter’s dissent, I think the majority’s decision may represent an understandable reluctance to impose personal liability on dedicated public officials attempting to minimize the risk of another terrorist attack.

If a policy of brutal interrogation of potential terrorists did violate their constitutional rights, the doctrine of respondeat superior should impose liability on the government for the wrongs committed by its agents. On the other hand, the law should also provide both those agents and their superiors with immunity from personal liability just as it provides such immunity to prosecutors who violate the Constitution. Even if Ashcroft and Mueller may have encouraged or tolerated improper efforts to obtain information about potential threats, we should presume that they were motivated by their interest in protecting the public from harm and not subject them to the risk of personal liability. If Iqbal’s allegations are true, the federal government, rather than individual executives, should make him whole.

III

The individuals who made the decision to intern loyal American citizens of Japanese ancestry made a terrible mistake but corrective action was, in due course, provided by the sovereign, not by any or all of the individuals responsible for the mistake. Mistakes that may have been made at Guantánamo may ultimately be redressed by the government without the costs and burdens associated with litigation and without imposing individual liability on everyone who violated the law. And one day we may have the wisdom to change the law in two constructive ways. First, recognizing respondeat superior as a basis for requiring government to provide appropriate remedies for constitutional wrongs committed by their agents.  And second, providing immunity from personal liability for those agents and their superiors, who — like prosecutors — should be able to perform their public responsibilities fearlessly. If they violate the law when trying to do their jobs, the sovereign — not the person injured by their misconduct — should determine the appropriate sanction for their misconduct. And the sovereign, rather than its individual agents, should be responsible for providing an appropriate remedy for their wrongs.

Thank you for your attention.

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Can FIFA’s Blatter Prevent Israel’s Suspension From International Soccer? – Analysis

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Winning a fifth term in office will be a cakewalk for FIFA’s oft-criticized president Sepp Blatter, when measured against the challenges posed to him by the looming Israeli-Palestinian showdown in world soccer’s governing body. Blatter is expected to travel to the Middle East ahead of FIFA’s May 29 congress, hoping to forge a compromise between the two rival soccer associations to head off the Palestine Football Association’s (PFA) bid to have Israel suspended from the international body. But he could struggle to keep the Middle East’s most intractable conflict out of the beautiful game.

The Palestinian resolution – which could gain significant support among member associations – is rooted in years of failed FIFA efforts to work out a mechanism between the Palestinian and Israeli soccer associations to address complaints that Israel’s occupation regime impedes the development of the Palestinian game, as well as accusations of racism in Israeli soccer.

The move clearly coincides with mounting efforts to build international pressure on Israel’s occupation now that the peace process is dormant. The movement to promote boycotts, divestment and sanctions (BDS) borrows heavily from the tactics used to pressure apartheid South Africa in the 1970s and ’80s, and countering it is an Israeli government priority.

Palestinian soccer officials argue that previous FIFA-mediated agreements with the Israel Football Association (IFA) that involved regular consultations and a hotline to resolve problems facing Palestinian footballers at Israeli military checkpoints in the West Bank have failed because the IFA has no influence on Israeli security policies. Those problems are largely related to the freedom of movement of players between Gaza and the West Bank – and within the West Bank itself – as well as on visiting foreign teams, particularly ones from the Middle East and Muslim countries.

Ironically, perhaps, Israeli diplomats lobbying against the Palestinian resolution and the IFA itself in a meeting with Blatter earlier this month have echoed that argument, saying the Israeli soccer body should not be held accountable for restrictions on Palestinian football that are not under its control.

The argument that the IFA should not be punished for the occupation is unlikely to impress PFA President Jibril Rajoub, a former West Bank security chief who spent years in Israeli prison and who sees sports as a vehicle to help end the occupation and achieve Palestinian statehood. Rajoub expects support from a significant number of FIFA member associations in Africa and Asia, as well as at least some European associations that have long been critical of Israeli policies towards the Palestinians. He’ll need three quarters of the international body’s 209 members to carry the day.

The IFA, of course, is unable to influence security policy, but that may not sway the argument for suspension of the national soccer association of the occupying power whose policies impede Palestinian soccer. And other elements of the Palestinian case could resonate with many in FIFA. These include assertions of racism in Israeli soccer despite the fact that Palestinian citizens are among Israel’s top players, and the IFA’s inclusion of clubs from the Israeli settlements deemed illegal under international law by the U.N. Security Council. The Palestinians argue that including those clubs in the league effectively amounts to IFA endorsement of Israeli policy on the West Bank.

The IFA prides itself on being the only Middle Eastern soccer body to have an anti-racism program, and it has repeatedly slapped the knuckles of Israeli teams that have violated anti-discrimination codes – particularly Beitar Jerusalem, which is notorious for its racist fan base and refusal to hire Palestinians. The IFA has not, however, imposed sanctions of sufficient strength to dissuade Beitar from maintaining its discriminatory policies and its tolerance of fans who wear racism as a badge of honor.

The FIFA vote could be the first major litmus test of a Palestinian campaign to isolate Israel in international organizations since the breakdown of U.S.-sponsored peace talks and last summer’s Israeli military campaign in Gaza.

Ironically, FIFA was the first international organization to recognize Palestine when it admitted the PFA in 1998 – joining Scotland, Wales, England, Northern Ireland and Hong Kong, among others, as members that are not internationally recognized sovereign nation states.

The PFA’s bid to get Israel suspended from FIFA is closely connected with the wider effort to isolate Israel over its policies towards the Palestinians, and its prospects will depend on the extent of support for that campaign.

The BDS movement was buoyed earlier this month when the Brazilian government decided not to move forward with a $2.2 billion contract with Israeli company International Security and Defense Systems (ISDS). The decision followed the cancellation late last year by the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul of a contract with Israeli company Elbit Systems to develop a major aerospace research center. Both decisions were made as a result of campaigns by BDS activists.

Even if the PFA fails this time around, many Israelis believe the writing is on the wall.

“Whether or not the Palestinians win the vote is only secondary to the realization that this is just the beginning of the Palestinians’ diplomatic efforts to impose sanctions on Israel. The issue is not football or the freedom of movement of soccer players,” wrote Gershom Baskin in the Jerusalem Post.

“The issue is much larger and will continue to emerge on the international stage on which Israel is now being targeted. The issue is of course the continuation of the occupation and Israel’s refusal to recognize the Palestinians’ right to self-determination in an independent state of their own next to Israel.”

This article appeared in Al Jazeera and is reprinted with permission.

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How Cooperative Research Is Shaping The Future Internet

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The EU-funded FELIX (Federated Test-Beds for Large-Scale Infrastructure Experiments) project was launched in April 2013 with the aim of helping universities and research centres in the EU and Japan to test new network technologies. This will be achieved through the establishment of joint experimental platforms, which users in both regions of the world can request, monitor and manage.

FELIX aims to give future internet researchers the means to demonstrate new network technologies on a world-scale test-bed, and in April 2015 published a White Paper outlining the key opportunities that this offers. The project team is now working on creating an easily accessible experimental framework to satisfy the needs of both European and Japanese research communities, and to enable greater collaboration.

FELIX is one of six current EU-Japan research partnership projects focused on ensuring that networks are adequately equipped to deal with the global explosion in internet usage. A huge rise in the use of mobile devices and content, server virtualisation and the advent of cloud services are just some of the trends driving networking industries and governments to re-examine traditional network architecture.

The key problem is that big data is growing faster than networks’ capacity to carry it. The internet now performs thousands of tasks – from online banking to tsunami monitoring – with 1.7 million billion bytes of data generated globally every minute. While data traffic volumes doubled between early 2012 and early 2013, they are expected to grow 12-fold by 2018.

This is why both the EU and Japan are working to adapt their internet architectures in order to increase network efficiency, and Europe has to date invested hundreds of millions of euros in researching the future internet.

The point of FELIX is to enable new network architecture to be trialled and tested at scale. FELIX began by investigating emerging technologies and Software Defined Networking (SDN) control frameworks in order to assess the practical applicability of the project. SDN is a dynamic, manageable and cost-effective approach to computer networking that decouples network control and forwarding functions.

This means that network control becomes directly programmable and the underlying infrastructure can be abstracted from applications and network services. Some SDN frameworks include Open Grid Forum’s NSI and OFELIA OCF.

Through building a framework based on SDN, the FELIX project will establish future internet experimental platforms in both Europe and Japan interconnected by high speed dynamic research networks. Project developments will then be demonstrated at influential international events in Europe and Japan, helping to promote the unique capabilities of this new framework and stimulate greater use of this experimental facility in both regions.

It is expected that the project, due for completion in March 2016, will also enable and encourage closer and more extensive bilateral cooperation in future research, and help to strengthen the participation of both EU and Japanese communities in increasingly important global collaborations. The ever growing demand for network capacity means that such research is more urgent than ever.

Source: CORDIS

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Peru: Social Conflicts Intensify

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The mainstream media calls farmers in the province of Islay, in the southern department of Arequipa, “anti-mining terrorists” for their opposition to the Tía María mine, a project of the mining company Southern Copper, which has had a presence in southern Peru for half a century.

The investment is estimated at US$1.4 billion. The mine would produce 120,000 tons of high purity copper cathodes per year. Although the mine was scheduled to begin operations in late 2011, the project could not be executed because of the citizen opposition.

The population of Islay, particularly those in the Tambo Valley, has been in an indefinite strike since March 23 in opposition to the Tía María mine, which would operate as an open pit mine for 18 years. Despite of the government and corporate propaganda spread by the press, which ensures that the project is highly profitable and would not affect the environment, the truth is that it would hurt a thriving economic activity: agriculture. In this valley, located just 2.4 kilometers from where the mine would be built, sugar, vegetables, potatoes, alfalfa, garlic and other agricultural products are produced and supply Arequipa and other regions of the country.

“Open pit mining is the most dangerous in the world because, besides contaminating with cyanide gas, nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, and other gases, which threaten the life of the surrounding towns,” say the experts Carlos Bedoya and Víctor Torres. Also, “it produces water imbalances when the level of river sediments rise as a result of the very fine solid particles that pollute the environment, while ground water is affected by the rain that falls on the chemical reagents, oils and mineral salts that are the waste products of treatment processes.”

Recent protests have left three dead: two civilians and a police officer. Victorian Huayna Nina, a 61-year-old farmer, died on April 22 from a bullet would and Henrry Checclla Chura, 35, apparently also died from a bullet wound on May 4 during a peaceful march in Mollendo, capital of Islay. The police officer Alberto Vázquez Durán, 51, died on May 9 from a fractured skull as a result of a stone thrown by protesters.

History of pollution

The conflict with Southern Copper — founded in 1952 with American capital and acquired in 2005 by a Mexican mining conglomerate — regarding the Tía María mine is not new. In 2009 the company attempted to develop the project and presented an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) that was approved by the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM). However, under pressure from citizens, in November 2010 the assessment was submitted for review to the Office of the United Nations Service for Project Services (UNOPS). The UNOPS made 138 observations, some of them quite serious, such as the lack of a hydrogeological study (study of the water and soil), which is essential to assess the impacts of mining activities, and that the water that would be used for the project would not come from the sea but from the Tambo River. In addition, there was also the possibility that the company would mine gold but made no reference to the use of mercury, a highly dangerous metal.

UNOPS submitted the report with its observations in March 2011. The government of former President Alan Garcia (2006-2011) decided not to make the report public, but it was immediately leaked by the Front for the Defense of the Tambo Valley, triggering violent protests by people demanding the authorities to suspend the project definitely and the prioritization of agriculture, their main means of subsistence. Clashes with police at that time left three farmers dead from bullet wounds and hundreds injured.

In November 2013, the company presented a new EIA report that supposedly had corrected for all observations made by the UNOPS. Nine months later, the MINEM announced the report’s approval, which caused the conflict with farmers to ensue again.

The truth is that the concerns of the people of Islay are based on the company’s history of pollution and infringements of environmental standards. Last January, the Special Prosecutor for Environmental Matters sentenced Southern Peru’s CEO, Mexican citizen Oscar González Rocha, with a two-and-a-half year long custodial sentence and the payment of $1 million for civil compensation for the crime of environmental pollution of the sea in the department of Ilo, south of Arequipa, where the company has a copper smelter. In 2008, the company was fined $2 million for violating various environmental protection laws, and between 2010 and 2014, it received 14 fines totaling $530,745 imposed by the Organism for Environmental Evaluation and Supervision (OEFA).

Environmental deregulation

Ollanta Humala took office in July 2011 and pledged to foster dialogue to solve the abundant social conflicts in the country. Four years later, the conflicts have not ceased, neither in numbers nor in strength of violence. From García’s administration, the current government inherited 214 social conflicts, of which 118 were socio-environmental, particularly against mining projects, according to the Ombudsman’s Office. In addition, 195 people have lost their lives due to the social conflicts.

Currently in Peru there are 211 social conflicts, of which 141 are socio-environmental, and 58 people have died from violence during conflicts since Humala took office.

All the conflicts have in common the unprecedented deregulation of the Peruvian economy. Given the economic slowdown since 2014, Humala opted for implementation of stimulus measures that diminish the regulatory role of the government, weakening the Ministry of the Environment and exempting private investors from certain requirements.

According to Ideele magazine, Humala “has been the president who has gone the farthest in deepening the [neoliberal economic] model,” a model imposed in the early 1990 by the Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000) regime.
“Of all the options, President Humala has opted for the worst: forced recovery measures that are at odds with fundamental rights. The government has backpedaled on all the progress it made in regards to environmental regulation and protection of indigenous communities,” points out Ideele.

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Sri Lanka: New National Policy On Art And Culture To Be Formulated Soon

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A proposal which includes recommendations for drafting a new National Policy on art and culture was presented Monday to Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena.

The proposal has been drafted by a committee comprised of eminent personalities of art and culture.

Here, the necessary steps that should be taken for the advancement of art and culture detailed under nine major-themes.

“A great responsibility lies in the fields of art and culture in the task of building and developing the spiritual and cultural values of the people, to achieve success in our aim of new political trend being built under the new Government,” the President said.

Resources allocated for the benefit of arts were distributed among limited persons as a result of the division between the artists on race, language, culture or any other reason during the past era, he further said.

The President instructed the Secretary of the Cultural Affairs to take necessary steps to formulate this White Paper immediately and take follow up action for speedy implementation.

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Israel: Court Permits Discriminatory Evictions, Says HRW

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Separate Israeli Supreme Court decisions issued on May 5, 2015, open the way for state authorities to forcibly evict residents of two Arab villages from their homes, Human Rights Watch said Monday. The inhabitants of both villages, one in Israel and the other in the occupied West Bank, have previously been displaced following actions by Israeli authorities.

“It is a sad day when Israeli Supreme Court decisions provide legal cover for forced evictions, as in the case of these two villages,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa director. “The Israeli government should let these communities stay where they are, not force them to move yet again.”

Between 750 and 1,000 Palestinian citizens of Israel who live in Umm al-Hiran, a village in Israel’s southern Negev desert, face removal. Israel relocated the villagers there under a 1956 agreement permitting them to live there in exchange for them dropping claims to land from which they say Israeli forces expelled them in 1948. Israeli authorities have refused to recognize the village, to supply basic services like water or electricity, or to develop a zoning plan to allow residents to obtain building permits. In 2009, Israeli authorities approved plans to use the land to build a Jewish community.

The Supreme Court ruled that the land belongs to the state and that it is entitled to withdraw permission for Umm al-Hiran inhabitants to live there, although the court rejected the government’s claim that the residents are squatters. It also ruled that replacing the village with a neighborhood “with institutions intended to serve the religious Jewish community” would not be discriminatory since, in principle, the Bedouin Umm al-Hiran residents could purchase homes there.

Salim Abu Qiani, a resident of Umm al-Hiran who spoke to Human Rights Watch after the Supreme Court ruling, urged Israel to hold to its previous agreement, allow the villagers to stay put, and recognize the village, or allow them to return to their original lands. “We don’t have a problem living next to anyone but they cannot move us by force to bring new people,” he said.

In its other judgment, the Supreme Court refused to freeze demolition orders for Susya, a Palestinian village in the south Hebron Hills in the West Bank with 340 residents. The villagers built homes on their own agricultural land in 1986 after Israel declared the village’s original location nearby an archeological site and evicted them from caves that served as their homes.

In 2013, the Israeli Civil Administration, a military department with authority over land use in the West Bank, rejected a zoning plan that would have given villagers legal permission to build and extend their homes. Its rejection was based in part on the Israeli government’s contention that the distance of the village from the nearest urban center would keep villagers, and particularly women, trapped in a “cycle of poverty,” despite the fact that the center in question is less than three kilometers away.

The Susya villagers are challenging the Civil Administration’s rejection of the plan in the Supreme Court and sought to freeze the demolitions in the meantime, but the Supreme Court ruling – delivered in just three sentences – allows the authorities to demolish the villagers’ homes without waiting for the outcome. The court decided that the Israeli authorities’ stated willingness to “examine the possibility of promoting an alternative regional plan” in relation to the villagers was sufficient to allow them to proceed.

Nasar Mahmoud Nawaja, a 33-year-old resident of Susya, told Human Rights Watch after the Supreme Court ruling that he and other villagers are now “living in fear, we can’t sleep. [At any moment] they can come to expel us from our land, this is a nightmare.”

A Jewish settlement – also called Susya – which includes “outposts” built without Israeli government authorization, is now located near the archeological site, and includes at least 23 houses of Israeli settlers built on privately owned Palestinian land, according to Regavim, an Israeli pro-settlement organization lobbying for expropriation of such land. But the residents of the Palestinian village cannot build or extend their homes lawfully on the land they own because Israeli authorities have refused to prepare a zoning plan for the area.

Qamar Mashriki Assad, a lawyer from Rabbis for Human Rights, which acts on behalf of the Palestinian villagers of Susya, told Human Rights Watch that Regavim, representing the inhabitants of the Israeli settlement of Susya, petitioned the Israeli Supreme Court in 2011 to demolish the Palestinian village. The petition came after Rabbis for Human Rights filed a case the previous year urging the Supreme Court to restrain alleged settler violence that prevented Palestinians from Susya from accessing their farmland. The court declared 12 percent of the residents’ land “closed to Israelis,” but the villagers allege that they continue to face settler violence on their remaining lands.

Human Rights Watch has previously documented how, in both the Negev and the West Bank, Israel authorities apply zoning laws in a discriminatory manner that frequently restricts the ability of Arabs to build lawfully. Around 80,000 Bedouin live under constant threat of demolition in 35 villages that Israel does not recognize in the Negev, under conditions similar to Umm al-Hiran.

In the West Bank, Israel has zoned only 1 percent of the area under its administrative control, called Area C, for Palestinian development. Israeli authorities approved fewer than 6 percent of the Palestinian building permit requests it received from 2000 to 2012. In contrast, Israeli authorities approved master plans for Jewish settlements covering 26 percent of the area.

Human Rights Watch has also found that Israeli authorities’ zoning and demolition policies in the West Bank, in some cases, can effectively amount to forcible transfer.

The International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), which Israel ratified in 1991, requires the Israeli authorities to respect the right to adequate housing. The International Court of Justice has held that Israel’s human rights obligations extend to the occupied territories. The Committee responsible for interpreting the ICESCR has made clear that the right to adequate housing includes protection from involuntary removal from one’s home by the state (known as “forced eviction” under human rights law) unless the state can show it is a reasonable and proportionate step that complies with other human rights principles. The fact that an eviction decision is subject to a form of legal review does not necessarily render it permissible under human rights law. International human rights law prohibits countries from discriminating against minority groups, including with regard to land and housing rights. Governments must demonstrate that any differential treatment negatively affecting a group is proportionate to a legitimate aim. In the case of the residents of Susya and Umm al-Hiran, the forced relocation decisions are discriminatory since they are based on zoning law decisions that treat Arab inhabitants differently from Jewish ones in a manner that cannot be justified by a legitimate aim.

If Israel carries out its plan to evict Palestinians from Susya it would be a grave breach of its obligations under the 1949 Geneva Conventions, and the individuals responsible could be prosecuted for war crimes. The Fourth Geneva Convention prohibits “[i]ndividual or mass forcible transfers” unless required for their own safety or imperative military reasons. No Israeli authority, including the Supreme Court, has justified this displacement as being a temporary measure for the protection of the residents themselves or for imperative military reasons.

“The court decisions in the Umm al-Hiran and Susya cases ignore international law in upholding discriminatory evictions by the Israeli authorities in Israel and the occupied territories,” Whitson said. “The Israeli government should fundamentally change its policies so that Arab communities have the same opportunities for lawful construction as Jewish citizens.”

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Flood Of Rohingya Migrants Ends In Humanitarian Catastrophe – Analysis

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By Emre Tunç Sakaoğlu

The death toll is estimated to be over one hundred as Rohingya migrants are grappling with hunger and thirst in the seas of Southeast Asia.

It all began last week when a sickeningly overcrowded vessel carrying hundreds of Rohingya families who had previously escaped from Myanmar using Thailand as a way station was detected in the seas of Southeast Asia on May 13.

Chris Lewa, the founder and coordinator of an NGO named the Arakan Project, was quoted by the BBC as saying that he had received an emergency phone call from someone on the vessel. During the phone call, Lewa was informed that a group of migrants, including 84 children and 50 women, were stranded on a boat that was abandoned by its captain and crew, who also took some essential parts of the boat’s engine with them.

Unsure of their exact location, the group onboard the vessel, consisting of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar and Bangladeshi migrants, thought that they were somewhere off the coasts of the Langkawi islands to the north of the Malaysia littoral.

Later reports suggest that the decrepit fishing boat in question initially held a total of over 350 migrants who had been fighting hunger, thirst, severe sun exposure, and disease for the last two-and-a-half months. A majority of the people on this particular vessel were ultimately saved, but the UN’s refugee agency reports that thousands more who share the same fate are still desperately waiting in line to be rescued.

Waves of migrants

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), around 8,000 more migrants are currently adrift on illegal vessels in the territorial waters of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

Zaid Ra’ad Al Hussein, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, stated that the combined number of Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants who are currently stranded on boats adrift in disperse locations of the Southeast Asian seas is estimated to be around 6,000.

Last week, the Malaysian and Indonesian navies rescued over 1,600 migrants according to a report by Refugees International. 600 of these people have been sheltered in the Aceh province of Indonesia’s Sumatra Island, while over 1,000 others have managed to come ashore and take shelter in Malaysia.

On May 15, Indonesia rescued another 900 Rohingya migrants who miraculously survived after their boat sank off the east coast of Sumatra. These migrants, whose boats have previously been shunned by Indonesian officials, are temporarily settled in indoor sports facilities and ad hoc shelters mostly in the Indonesian city of Langsa and are scheduled to be deported as soon as possible.

Thai officials announced that another 106 Rohingya were rescued the same day from an island off Thailand’s western coastline.

A brutal journey

Stab wounds and other injuries resulting from violent struggles for survival between those migrants from Bangladesh and Rohingya communities on board these vessels, mostly in the form of bloody fights with knives and sticks over water, food, and shelter, were common among the languishing migrants according to testimonies by Indonesian fishermen in the region.

It was also revealed that while sailing on jam-packed boats for over two months, many Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants were thrown overboard as a result of petty fights, left to drown in the sea or be eaten by sharks.

According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, 920 migrants, most of whom were Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar, died in the Bay of Bengal between September 2014 and March 2015. The total number of Muslim migrants from Myanmar who have fled persecution and poverty since November 2014 by way of illegal fishing boats is estimated to be over 20,000.

Seaborne trafficking in the region is mainly bound for Malaysia. While the Rohingya are risking their lives in a bid to escape sectarian violence in Myanmar, migrants from Bangladesh do not have such security concerns in mind and are instead oftentimes motivated by economic opportunities.

Largest refugee influx yet

This current flow of migrants is considered to constitute the largest influx of maritime refugees to Malaysia and Indonesia since the Vietnam War.

As the Thai government unexpectedly started intervening to halt busy human trafficking routes last week, the panic-stricken smugglers began abandoning their vessels, and the migrants onboard, in the middle of the sea. Local sources quoted by international correspondents suggest that the traffickers have been swindling the migrants by asking for ransoms from their families after abandoning the boats near the waters of Indonesia and Malaysia instead of receiving direct payments from the migrants after delivering them safely to their agreed destinations.

Local officials in both Myanmar and Thailand are also accused of complicity in the mass trafficking of Rohingya migrants. Several NGOs that are active throughout the region previously reported that the human trafficking “industry” is mainly based in Thailand.

Mounting international pressure

Survivors from the boats say that they were repeatedly turned back out to sea by Malaysia and Indonesia, therefore the supplies on these vessels have been running low at alarming rates despite the humanitarian aid that is occasionally delivered to them by the Indonesian and Malaysian navies.

Last week, the UN urged Indonesia and Malaysia to avoid sending the newly arriving boats back to sea, calling for regional capitals to coordinate their efforts and to put an end to the plight of the Rohingya migrants as soon as possible. The UN also asked countries in the region to hasten search and rescue operations in their territorial waters and beyond.

Meanwhile, the news of these desperate boatpeople fleeing to Malaysia and Indonesia by the thousands only to be turned away has triggered public outrage on a global scale. The US and Turkey as well as several other countries and various international organizations renewed their calls to governments throughout the region to take immediate action.

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Economic And Environmental Impacts Of Fracked Shale Gas – Analysis

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The economic and environmental impacts of the US fracking boom are hotly debated. This column argues that there’s been a large positive impact on the US economy, estimating that the benefits to producers and consumers totalled $48 billion in 2013, or around one-third of 1% of US GDP. The climate change impacts have been large, but they do not outweigh the private gains. However, a lack of data on the impacts to water, air, and seismic activity hamper policymakers effectively targeting the areas of greatest concern and hamper them drawing up effective regulation.

By Catherine Hausman and Ryan Kellogg*

The fracking revolution has happened incredibly quickly, with natural gas output in the US increasing by 25% in just six years. Research is accumulating on its impact on the economy (e.g. CBO 2014, Mason et al. 2014) and the environment (e.g. Jackson et al. 2014, Moore et al. 2014, Small et al. 2014). Some uncertainties are being resolved which will help policymakers better understand the implications of this rapid change in domestic fossil fuel production, but a number of big-picture questions remain unanswered.

In recent research (Hausman and Kellogg 2015) we offer evidence on several new pieces of the fracking puzzle. We focus on shale gas, rather than shale oil, and we direct the reader to other recent work on unconventional oil (e.g. Kilian 2014).

How much have domestic natural gas prices fallen?

The first step is to understand just how big a technological advance has been made in the extraction of natural gas. From 2007 to 2013, for instance, production grew by 25% and Henry Hub prices (the pricing point for natural gas futures contracts) fell by over 50%. Concurrent with these changes, of course, were a recession and a recovery, so we therefore have to separate out the impact of changes in demand for natural gas. To do this, we provide new estimates of natural gas supply and demand curves, allowing us to calculate just how much of the price decline was due to the expansion in supply. We find that the supply boom lowered prices by almost 50%.

Figure 1. The natural gas supply boom is associated with a price fall 1

Figure 1. The natural gas supply boom is associated with a price fall 1

Figure 1. The natural gas supply boom is associated with a price fall 1

 

Figure 2. Holding demand constant, the supply boom caused prices to fall almost 50% 2

 

Figure 2. Holding demand constant, the supply boom caused prices to fall almost 50% 2

Figure 2. Holding demand constant, the supply boom caused prices to fall almost 50% 2

Who wins and who loses?

Between the price fall and the expansion of quantity consumed, we estimate that in 2013 fracking made buyers of natural gas $74 billion better off. Some of these gains accrued directly to households in the form of lower utility bills, while other gains went to commercial and industrial users. Even more gains were seen in the electric power sector as a direct result of lower input prices.

However, we estimate that producers have, on net, lost because of fracking (a $26 billion loss in 2013) – for them, the price decline has outweighed the quantity expansion. Moreover, while states such as Pennsylvania with large amounts of shale gas have benefited, states with primarily conventional reserves have on net lost because of the price decline.

Overall, we calculate that the private gains to consumers and producers from shale gas, not including environmental impacts, totalled $48 billion in 2013. This is about one-third of 1% of GDP, around $150 per capita.

Will this reverse the decline in American manufacturing?

One reason the price fall has been so dramatic is that the North American natural gas market is not fully integrated with overseas markets. Natural gas must be transformed into liquefied natural gas before transport overseas. This is expensive and there are policy barriers on top of the transportation costs.

Figure 3. Domestic and international prices3

Figure 3. Domestic and international prices3

Figure 3. Domestic and international prices3

 

As a result, some policymakers have hoped that the decline in US manufacturing would be reversed, spurred on by low domestic energy prices that are not mirrored in international markets. Using data on manufacturing sector activity and inputs, we find increases in establishment counts, employment, employee compensation, and capital expenditure for natural-gas-intensive industries. We see especially strong impacts for fertiliser manufacturing, the most gas-intensive industry we analyse. This result is not surprising – while input prices have been depressed, output prices for fertiliser itself have remained high. Fertiliser is easily traded internationally, and prices are set on the world market. Similar dynamics are at play in other chemicals manufacturing, such as high-density polyethylene, a common type of plastic.

Figure 4. For fertiliser and chemicals, inputs prices are falling but output prices are not4

Figure 4. For fertiliser and chemicals, inputs prices are falling but output prices are not4

Figure 4. For fertiliser and chemicals, inputs prices are falling but output prices are not4

 

Overall, we find that manufacturing employment appears to have risen because of fracking, although the total employment effect depends, of course, on how these changes impact non-manufacturing employment.

How big are the environmental impacts?

The gains to households and industries must, of course, be weighed against environmental impacts. The scientific literature on fracking’s environmental effects is accumulating, but much remains uncertain.

Take, for instance, the impact of fracking natural gas on climate change, where three mechanisms are at play:

  • First, with greater natural gas consumption comes higher CO2 emissions produced during combustion;
  • Second, and counteracting some of the first effect, is the displacement effect on coal – when natural gas power plants substitute for coal-fired plants, CO2 emissions decrease;
  • A third effect, which is harmful for climate change, is the leakage of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, from the natural gas supply chain.

While measuring the first impact – greater natural gas combustion – is easy, a precise understanding of the second two impacts remains elusive. The coal displacement effect depends on how coal markets around the world re-adjust, and more research is needed on this area. Also, the methane leakage rate is much debated by scientists. Overall, past researchers (McJeon et al. 2014, Newell and Raimi 2014) have concluded that fracking could either increase or decrease total greenhouse gas emissions. We show that plausible bounds on the greenhouse gas costs from shale gas for 2013 are $3 billion to $28 billion.5 At the most extreme, if methane leaks are quite high and if no coal is displaced, the climate change impacts could erase about half of the welfare gains from fracking.

On local environmental impacts, there is even more uncertainty. We direct the reader to a substantial literature cataloguing the potential impacts, including water contamination, earthquakes, road congestion, air pollution, and habitat fragmentation (useful summaries are provided in Jackson et al. 2014, Mason et al. 2014, Moore et al. 2014, and Small et al. 2014). With good estimates of the marginal cost of damages to water and air, these impacts could be properly valued and weighed against the private gains from fracking.6 The limitation, however, is that comprehensive data across time and space are not available on these impacts. Some of the data, for instance, are industry-reported. Data on other processes lack a baseline against which current conditions can be compared. Other data are snapshots of single sites at a point in time. Aggregation and extrapolation to other sites and other time periods is complicated by the fact that many of the impacts (e.g. water contamination and methane leaks) are likely to be very heterogeneous.

What next?

We find a noticeable impact of the shale gas boom on the US economy. We estimate that benefits to producers and consumers totalled $48 billion in 2013, or around one-third of 1% of GDP. Under some assumptions, the climate change impacts have been large, but they do not erase the private gains. More research on this area is still needed. Better data on the impacts to water, air, and seismic activity are also urgently needed. This lack of data means that environmental impacts cannot yet be properly valued, and policymakers are hampered in their ability to target the areas of greatest concern. Moreover, regulatory options are unlikely to be cost-effective when the monitoring of damages is incomplete.

*About the authors:
Catherine Hausman
Assistant Professor at the Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan

Ryan Kellogg
Associate Professor of Economics, University of Michigan

References:
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) (2014), “The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Producing Oil and Natural Gas from Shale”.

Hausman, C, and R Kellogg (2015), “Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas”, NBER Working Paper 21115 and Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, Spring.

Jackson, R B, A Vengosh, J W Carey, R J Davies, T H Darrah, F O’Sullivan, and G Petron (2014), “The Environmental Costs and Benefits of Fracking”, Annual Review of Environment and Resources 39: 327-362.

Kilian, L (2014), “The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices”, Working Paper.

Mason, C F, L A Muehlenbachs, and S M Olmstead (2014), “The Economics of Shale Gas Development”, Annual Review of Resource Economics, forthcoming.

McJeon, H, J Edmonds, N Bauer, L Clarke, B Fisher, B P Flannery, J Hilaire, V Krey, G Marangoni, R Mi, K Riahi, H Rogner, and M Tavoni (2014), “Limited Impact on Decadal-Scale Climate Change from Increased Use of Natural Gas”, Nature 514: 482-485.

Moore, C W, B Zielinska, G Petron, and R B Jackson (2014), “Air Impacts of Increased Natural Gas Acquisition, Processing, and Use: A Critical Review”, Environmental Science and Technology 48: 8349-8359.

Newell, R G, and D Raimi (2014), “Implications of Shale Gas Development for Climate Change”, Environmental Science and Technology 48: 8360-8368.

Small, M J, P C Stern, E Bomberg, S M Christopherson, B D Goldstein, A L Israel, R B Jackson, A Krupnick, M S Mauter, J Nash, D Warner North, S M Olmstead, A Prakash, B Rabe, N Richardson, S Tierney, T Webler, G Wong-Parodi, and B Zielinska (2014), “Risks and Risk Governance in Unconventional Shale Gas”, Environmental Science and Technology 48: 8289-8297.

Footnotes:
1 Source: EIA data.

2 Equilibrium prices are not at the intersection of domestic supply and demand, since they also account for imports and exports. See Hausman and Kellogg (2015) for details.

3 The Henry Hub price is a monthly average of the daily NYMEX spot price. The UK price is a monthly average of the daily National Balancing Point price, and it has been converted from GB pence per therm to dollars per mcf (a thousand cubic feet). Source: EIA for the Henry Hub price; Bloomberg for the UK NBP spot price; World Bank for the Japanese liquid natural gas price.

4 Source: Bloomberg.

5 These bounds are at a social cost of carbon of $40 per tonne.

6 As with the climate change impacts, there are some local benefits from fracking when coal is displaced – natural gas-fired power plants emit less than coal-fired plants.

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Why We Will Never Forget The Human Rights Crimes Of The Thai Army – OpEd

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If there is one characteristic that defines Abhisit Vejjajiva’s baleful Democrat Party-led Thai government of 2008 to 2011, it is its shocking and callous disregard for human life during the Bangkok Massacre of 2010.

As my law firm has reiterated time and time again, setting highly trained snipers, equipped with the latest battlefield military hardware, against unarmed, civilian protesters – as Abhisit and the Thai Army did in April/May 2010 – is not only a crime against the Thai people but against humanity itself.

Yet it is not the just actions of the Thai Army and Abhisit in 2010 that cements their reputation as inflicting an injudicious, cold-hearted terror on their own people. It has also been their attempts to secure a false history of those terrible events, thereby denying not only justice and truth but any chance of genuine reconciliation for those who suffered at their hands.

In the last few days the shameless and misnamed National “Anti-Corruption” Commission has sought to press charges against Thailand’s last democratically-elected PM, Yingluck Shinawatra, and her cabinet, for financially compensating those ordinary Thai citizens who suffered loss and/or injury during the period of political turmoil from 2005-2010. Whilst there were certainly flaws with this compensation scheme, it did mark the very first time that the Thai state had sought to acknowledge and make reparations for harm done to its civilian population. Given Thailand’s long history of massacre and impunity such a compensation scheme was remarkable & unique.

What is far less unique is the present military junta’s attempt to conjure up a re-telling of the very recent past whilst mouthing the bogus rhetoric of unity and reconciliation – this is an old trick the amaart have used time and time again.

As previously stated, in the next few days my law firm will be releasing a number of documents relating to the events of 2010. There will be little in these documents that those who witnessed the terrible events of 2010 – including myself, who took part in efforts to negotiate a peaceful denouement – will find revelatory. Yet it is important we distribute these documents so that all those seeking justice in Thailand are equipped with the tools to engage in that struggle.

Over the last 5 years many of us who are aware of the truth have exercised unshakeable resolution in our efforts to expose the obvious lies and distortions of the Army, Abhisit’s “Democrat” Party and their assorted PR flunkeys. So prejudiced are the Army & Abhisit’s attempts to engender a cover-up that they’ve even attempted to use a fallacious “reconciliation” process in order to de facto sustain and further impunity.

The only route to reconciliation is via the things that the Thai Army and Democrat Party fear the most – truth and justice. It is to these things we must adhere as we continue in our struggle.

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China-India: Still Battling Mistrust – Analysis

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By Manoj Joshi*

The best assessment of the outcome of Narendra Modi’s visit to China has been made by the Prime Minister himself. Twice on Friday, he referred to the inability of the two countries to fulfil their potential because of mistrust between them.

This time around, there was no reference to the 2005 formulation that the Sino-Indian relationship was a “strategic and cooperative partnership”. The tone and substance of the joint statement, which usually reflects areas of agreement, was modest. Not surprisingly, it spoke of the “imperative of forging strategic trust”.

In his media statement in Beijing on Friday, Modi said he had, in his official talks, “stressed the need for China to reconsider its approach on some of the issues that hold us back from realising full potential of our partnership”. Later, in a speech at Tsinghua University, after outlining his plans and policies for India and the potential of the China-India political and economic partnership, Modi again emphasised the need to “address the issues that lead to hesitation and doubts, even distrust, in our relationship”.

Such candour is not unusual in talks between government heads, but Modi’s insistent public references probably left the Chinese bemused. For too long they have gone on with the cynical claim that China’s ties with Pakistan are not aimed at India, or that the border dispute is left over from history and is best left for later generations to handle. The simple fact is that Sino-Indian relations are now far too important to be allowed to fester for decades, as they have.

Modi conceded that the Chinese leadership was “responsive” to him, but it is clear that they hesitated to act on his points. In his press remarks and Tsinghua speech, Modi spoke of the need to clarify the Line of Actual Control as a means of maintaining peace and tranquillity on the LAC, as well as the need for progress on the stapled visa policy. But the joint statement is silent on both issues.

In the same vein, there were probably subjects that the Chinese would have liked to have seen in the joint statement, but they are not there. Tibet and one China are old hat, but Beijing would have wanted a favourable reference to President Xi Jinping’s favourite scheme ­ the One Belt One Road initiative that seeks to build overland and maritime connectivity in Central Asia and the Indian Ocean Region.

The reference to the border dispute in the joint statement is anodyne. Both sides seem adamant in wanting to get an “LAC plus” settlement.

But there has clearly been forward movement in the economic and peopleto-people ties. Investments could come in railways and industrial parks, new consulates will be opened in Chengdu and Chennai, initiatives to encourage province-to-province and business-tobusiness relations will get a fillip through Indian e-visas. As of now, many of the plans are on paper, but there is a logic to closer India-China economic ties that cannot be ignored. Still, as Modi pointed out, at present there is a self-limiting trajectory to the relations. At its heart is a dark area of mistrust, which is actually growing. In the 1962-2000 period, it was primarily related to the memories of the war and China’s backing of Pakistan, to the extent of altering the strategic equations in South Asia by giving them nuclear weapons and missiles.

But after 1988 China and India were able to keep aside the problems, maintain peace on a disputed 4,000 km border, build important economic relations and develop convergence on a host of global governance issues.

Till the end of the Cold War, with the Soviets on their side, India effectively balanced China. Our GDPs and levels of technology were roughly the same. But in the 2000s things have changed rapidly and today China’s GDP is five times that of India; Russia is drifting towards China.After 2008 China has come to be seen as a world power, bringing in its wake enormous turbulence in the world order.

Yet, the Sino-Indian border dispute continues to fester and the China-Pakistan relationship seems even more solid, with little change in Islamabad’s hostility towards India or China’s military commitment, the latest to the provision of submarines capable of firing ballistic missiles.Layered upon this are newer areas generating mistrust ­ China’s naval activity in the Indian Ocean and the nature of relations with India’s close neighbours, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal.

So it is not surprising that India, feeling the ground shifting beneath its feet, is furiously modernising its military and racing to build its border infrastructure. It is reaching out to democracies like the US and Japan to maintain a balance of power, and this, in turn, following the logic of great power competition, is scaring China.

In part the mistrust is fostered by a difficulty in understanding how the Chinese system functions. But rising China, instead of becoming more open and democratic, remains opaque, determined to create an authoritarian universe in its governance system, internet, media and international outlook.

But conflict is not inevitable. India and China have themselves shown how it is possible to manage disputes. However, it requires a pragmatic ability to confront festering issues and resolve them. By being unusually forthright in his speeches in Beijing, that is what Modi was trying to tell China.

*The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Courtesy: Times of India, May 18, 2015

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Sirisena Says Sri Lanka Will Never ‘Let Brutal Terrorism’ To Rise In Country Again

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Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena said though the damaged buildings, destroyed roads and other physical resources were being re-built there was no reconciliation process during the post-war period to rebuild the broken hearts and minds. “Therefore, as the new government we clearly state that our policy is that of development and reconciliation,” he said and added, “we cannot fulfill our expectations for reconciliation only through development.”

Addressing the Ranaviru Day at Matara on Wednesday, the President said the reconciliation process includes investigating the truth, carrying out justice, eliminating the fear and mistrust and building trust among every community and re-building physical resources which were devastated by the armed conflict. Hence, with the experience of the war, we must understand the requirement of priority for the reconciliation process.”

President Sirisena said the Government, within its policy, will be committed to carry out the reconciliation process in the similar way that tri-forces, police and civil security force made their commitment in the war.

“We never let the brutal terrorism to be arisen in this country again. We will strengthen the process for development and reconciliation. We have kept foremost trust and honor on the tri-forces and leading security divisions. We must clearly state that we will take every possible step to strengthen the military service and to create a suitable environment to work by providing ample physical and human resources to the armed forces especially, when it come to the National Security,” he said.

President added that actions are being carried out for a new national security system and a new national security plan, according to the instruction given by the security heads at meetings.

Full text of the speech:

Today we celebrate one of the most historical and significant days of the recent past. Today is the anniversary of the day in which we ended the most ruthless and barbaric terrorism that lasted 30 years, brought peace to the nation, protected the territorial integrity and sovereignty, and our national heritage.

We all have bitter experience of the barbaric nature of the LTTE war. The human qualities were subdued, barbarism raised its head and the truth was suppressed. Peace was destroyed and the bloodshed cost us thousands of lives. There will never be anything humane in a war. In this situation, our valiant forces, the Army, Navy, Air Force, Police and Civil Defence Forces sacrificed their lives and fought this war bravely in defence of Motherland.

The war that commenced in the 1980s became the worst catastrophe of our nation for three long decades. All developmental activities were at a standstill. People lost their hopes. All of them, however, committed themselves together with the members of the security forces to fight this war until victory, with much sacrifice. All of them who made such sacrifices receive the respect and honor of the nation. This honour should go to all the members of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Police and Civil Defence Forces and all leaders of the State since 1980s who gave leadership with commitment to bring this conflict to an end. The great national service rendered by the forces cannot be valued in money. Hence, all the members of the forces receive the honour of the Government of Sri Lanka and all the citizens of the country today.

We must pay our attention to the reason why this war dragged on for 30 years. We must study the developments prior to the 30 year old conflict and how the governments reacted then. In that era the Tamils, Muslims and other communities lived in unity as brothers. The leaders then fulfilled their responsibilities towards the people.

In the 1930s and 1940s the freedom struggle was fought with the cooperation of all the communities and all those who follow different faiths and it succeeded in obtaining independence in 1948. After winning the freedom when we attempted to forge peace, harmony, coexistence and reconciliation, there were many shortcomings in our methods. That has resulted in divisions between the communities and its end result was that we all had to face a barbaric terrorism.

With the ending of the war on May 18 and 19 of 2009, we witnessed a period of peace. We have to ask ourselves with intelligence, experience, knowledge and wisdom whether we have fulfilled the tasks we should have performed during the post-conflict period.

I think we did not fulfill that responsibility. Prominence was given to the development of physical resources, and there was no importance given to the process of reconciliation among communities.

Though the damaged buildings, destroyed roads and other physical resources were being re-built there was no reconciliation process during the post-war period to rebuild the broken hearts and minds. Therefore, as the new government we clearly state that our policy is that of development and reconciliation. We cannot fulfill our expectations for reconciliation only through development. The reconciliation process includes investigating the truth, carrying out justice, eliminating the fear and mistrust and building trust among every community and re-building physical resources which were devastated by the armed conflict. Hence, with the experience of the war, we must understand the requirement of priority for the reconciliation process.

The conflict started with an issue on water supply for cultivations. From that beginning, culminated with the final battle regarding disruption of the water supply of Mavil – Aru. The war that started over the water of Mavil – Aru ended on the water of Nandikadal Lagoon.

When considering all aspects, we understand that we have to fulfill our responsibilities by the people of Sri Lanka both today as well as tomorrow. The Government, within its policy, will be committed to carry out the reconciliation process similar to the way that the tri-forces, police and civil security force carried out their commitment in the war.

Especially, we should perform our responsibilities efficiently and properly by eliminating fear and mistrust among people, building mutual understanding among everybody and determining our own responsibilities and tasks. To overcome our challenges in the country today and tomorrow, we shall implement our slogan development and reconciliation. The honor of the entire nation will be offered to you. To make that honor the strength of the nation, as the new government, we clearly state that in all future actions we will take steps to future wellbeing of our motherland, strengthening national security.

In instructions given to security chiefs of Security Council meetings action is being taken to work out a new national security system and plan. We fully undertake responsibilities of preventing another war in this country.

We will never let brutal terrorism raise its head in this country again. We will strengthen the process of development and reconciliation and have the foremost trust and respect in the security sector led by the tri-forces.

With regard to national security, we must clearly state that we will take every step to strengthen the armed service and to create a suitable environment for the services by providing ample physical and human resources for their needs.

Sometimes, when we consider the different views and opinions of our political opponents with regard to the present government we can see the existence of some with extremist positions. Extremist groups which attempt to create disharmony among the communities exists in our country, as well as in other countries. In keeping with State Policy, we will take steps to strengthen the National Security and the Tri Forces by providing all the necessary resources to fulfill your duties and responsibilities, while, refuting and rejecting false propaganda of extremist groups.

I believe that in the future, you will fulfill your duties in mopst satisfactory manner considering this War Heroes Remembrance Day as the day which brought peace to our land and giving priority to reconciliation among communities as the responsibility of a soldier.

I must mention here that we will provide all the benefits and social welfare facilities in the development drive of our country to our beloved people, who acted with great commitment in the 30 year long war.

Today, we all consider this great day as a day which saw the dawn peace in our land. A day that we all respect as well as a day which opens a new chapter in our country’s development and reconciliation. As I mentioned before, all must unite for development and reconciliation in the country. We must all carry out our responsibilities together to defend the unitary status and territorial integrity on behalf of our nation and country.

All of you have placed your confidence in our government. Therefore from today, we must work with determination to turn a new page of Peace to make this truly a land of peace.

May you all be blessed by the Noble Triple Gem.

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Exposure Of US Population To Extreme Heat May Quadruple By Mid-Century

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US residents’ exposure to extreme heat could increase four- to six-fold by mid-century, due to both a warming climate and a population that’s growing especially fast in the hottest regions of the country, according to new research.

The study, by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the City University of New York (CUNY), highlights the importance of considering societal changes when trying to determine future climate impacts.

“Both population change and climate change matter,” said NCAR scientist Brian O’Neill, one of the study’s co-authors. “If you want to know how heat waves will affect health in the future, you have to consider both.”

Extreme heat kills more people in the United States than any other weather-related event, and scientists generally expect the number of deadly heat waves to increase as the climate warms. The new study, published May 18 in the journal Nature Climate Change, finds that the overall exposure of Americans to these future heat waves would be vastly underestimated if the role of population changes were ignored.

The total number of people exposed to extreme heat is expected to increase the most in cities across the country’s southern reaches, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Tampa, and San Antonio.

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s sponsor, and the U.S. Department of Energy.

Climate, population, and how they interact

For the study, the research team used 11 different high-resolution simulations of future temperatures across the United States between 2041 and 2070, assuming no major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The simulations were produced with a suite of global and regional climate models as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.

Using a newly developed demographic model, the scientists also studied how the U.S. population is expected to grow and shift regionally during the same time period, assuming current migration trends within the country continue.

Total exposure to extreme heat was calculated in “person-days” by multiplying the number of days when the temperature is expected to hit at least 95 degrees by the number of people who are projected to live in the areas where extreme heat is occurring.

The results are that the average annual exposure to extreme heat in the United States during the study period is expected to be between 10 and 14 billion person-days, compared to an annual average of 2.3 billion person-days between 1971 and 2000.

Of that increase, roughly a third is due solely to the warming climate (the increase in exposure to extreme heat that would be expected even if the population remained unchanged). Another third is due solely to population change (the increase in exposure that would be expected if climate remained unchanged but the population continued to grow and people continued to moved to warmer places). The final third is due to the interaction between the two (the increase in exposure expected because the population is growing fastest in places that are also getting hotter).

“We asked, ‘Where are the people moving? Where are the climate hot spots? How do those two things interact?'” said NCAR scientist Linda Mearns, also a study co-author. “When we looked at the country as a whole, we found that each factor had relatively equal effect.”

At a regional scale, the picture is different. In some areas of the country, climate change packs a bigger punch than population growth and vice versa.

For example, in the U.S. Mountain region–defined by the Census Bureau as the area stretching from Montana and Idaho south to Arizona and New Mexico–the impact of a growing population significantly outstrips the impact of a warming climate. But the opposite is true in the South Atlantic region, which encompasses the area from West Virginia and Maryland south through Florida.

Exposure vs. vulnerability

Regardless of the relative role that population or climate plays, some increase in total exposure to extreme heat is expected in every region of the continental United States. Even so, the study authors caution that exposure is not necessarily the same thing as vulnerability.

“Our study does not say how vulnerable or not people might be in the future,” O’Neill said. “We show that heat exposure will go up, but we don’t know how many of the people exposed will or won’t have air conditioners or easy access to public health centers, for example.”

The authors also hope the study will inspire other researchers to more frequently incorporate social factors, such as population change, into studies of climate change impacts.

“There has been so much written regarding the potential impacts of climate change, particularly as they relate to physical climate extremes,” said Bryan Jones, a postdoctoral researcher at the CUNY Institute for Demographic Research and lead author of the study. “However, it is how people experience these extremes that will ultimately shape the broader public perception of climate change.”

The post Exposure Of US Population To Extreme Heat May Quadruple By Mid-Century appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Syria: US-Lead Coalition Airstrikes Kill 170 Jihadists In 48 Hours

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Air strikes by a US-led coalition against against the Islamic State group (also known as ISIS or Daesh) in northeastern Syria have killed around 170 jihadists in the past 48 hours, a monitoring group said Tuesday.

“The jihadists were killed in the past 48 hours in the province of Hasakeh, nearly all of them in very intense air strikes by the international coalition which is helping Kurdish forces in the area,” said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) militia has been making steady gains against ISIS, gaining considerable momentum after liberating the town of Kobane on the border with Turkey.

Kobane became a symbol of Kurdish resistance to ISIS after its embattled, outgunned and outnumbered defenders succeeded in holding out against a massive jihadist onslaught, and eventually pushing back ISIS with the help of US airstrikes and Kurdish peshmerga reinforcements from Iraq.

Since then Kurdish forces have taken hundreds of villages and other positions from IS forces in parts of northern Syria Kurds call “Rojava,” or Western Kurdistan.

In both Syria and Iraq it is the Kurds – who have long campaigned for independence or autonomy – who have proven the most effective military force against ISIS.

The US-led airstrikes come as Syrian regime forces continue to battle ISIS around the ancient city of Palmyra, part of which the jihadists briefly occupied before being ousted by the Syrian army and allied militias.

But another ISIS offensive – this one in the Iraqi city of Ramadi – succeeded, pushing Iraqi army troops from the provincial capital of Anbar in Baghdad’s biggest defeat since retaking Tikrit from Islamic State.

Original article

The post Syria: US-Lead Coalition Airstrikes Kill 170 Jihadists In 48 Hours appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Americans, Europeans Don’t Trust Mainstream Media On International News – Survey

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Getting their international news only from mainstream media is not what the majority of Americans and Europeans want, an opinion poll shows. Some 60 percent desire alternative sources of news coverage.

The only country among the five polled by the British company ICM Research for Sputnik news radio, in which less than half of respondents said they would like to have an alternative source of information on world affairs, was France. Forty-nine percent of the people there said they would be ‘quite interested’ or ‘interested a lot’ in it.

Greeks were on the other side of the spectrum, with over 80 percent vying for such a source. The US and UK were level at 57 percent, while Germany ran at 55 percent, Sputnik reported.

The polling happened between March 20 and April 9, with 1,000 people covered in each country. Sputnik is a Russia-based news agency and radio network targeting foreign audiences. It started an opinion polling service in partnership with ICM in July 2014.

A separate ICM poll conducted for Sputnik in April showed that some 54 percent of people in the same five countries didn’t trust mainstream media when it came to coverage of the Ukrainian crisis.

The post Americans, Europeans Don’t Trust Mainstream Media On International News – Survey appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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