By Alessandro Bruno

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), intelligence, and border surveillance agencies have drawn hundreds of millions of dollars to “combat terrorism” in a federal budget that made special reference to the murder of two Canadian soldiers in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu and Ottawa last October. While there is the impression that the current Canadian government has devoted a greater portion of its budgets to defense spending to expand the role of the Canadian military, in reality, the Conservatives have devoted far more relative attention and dollars to internal security. What is clearer is that Canada’s military has become a tool for the government’s self-promotion and for electoral grandstanding, as demonstrated by the way its recent deployments to the Middle East, in concert with Bill C-51, have been exploited.

An additional C$292.6 million over five years has been allocated to the RCMP, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), and the Canada Border Agency services to fight terrorism and intercept the financing of terrorist groups. This new funding is a response to criticism from the opposition, which argued that the Canadian law enforcement team was being ignored. As expected, the Conservatives have used the budget to give Canadians the impression of caring for their safety, while Finance Minister Joe Oliver reinforced the need for additional security measures, warning citizens that jihadists had “declared war on Canada and Canadians.”

The budget also includes C$12.5 million over five years to oversee intelligence services in order to address concerns from the NDP and the Liberals about the lack supervision measures in Bill C-51 – so called anti-terrorism legislation that was recently passed in the House. An additional C$94.4 million over the next five years was allotted to protect Canada’s infrastructure from cyber-attacks. Despite the grandstanding, some analysts suggest that the additional funds account for a mere five percent increase in Canada’s public security budget. Nonetheless, the Conservative government has framed the budget to appeal to people’s anxieties emanating from lingering international crises.

“Our Government understands the presence of danger and is determined to respond in a responsible manner, without ambiguity or moral ambiguity,” said Mr. Oliver during his speech. He specifically cited ISIS or Islamic State, noting that the new funding gave the RCMP and CSIS new resources to investigate and prevent terrorist attacks against Canada, as well as hampering Islamic State’s ability to draw vulnerable young Canadians to its cause. As for border security, the budget allows for additional use of biometrics to identify travelers who require a visa to come to Canada. For some countries like Brazil, NAFTA partner Mexico, or EU members Bulgaria and Romania, cumbersome procedures could have economic consequences against the Harper government. Mexicans were enraged by the visa requirement imposed by Canada a few years ago, while imposing visas on travelers from Romania and Bulgaria is an obstacle to the ratification of an important free trade agreement between Canada and the European Union.

The military as a reflection of a changing foreign policy

Harper’s Canada has taken on military missions that have increased the country’s exposure to the very risks that the additional security measures are intended to address. Canada wisely managed to stay out of Iraq, but the current government has sent Special Forces to fight against Islamic State alongside Kurdish forces in northern Iraq with provisions to attack ISIS posts in Syria as well. In an even more ‘ambitious,’ or imprudent, move depending on perspective, the Harper government has sent special troops to train Ukrainian soldiers confronting pro-Russian rebels. The Canadian Armed Forces had until recently acted in concert with other national forces in peacekeeping roles under UN auspices; after all, even the mission in Afghanistan had a UN, as well as a NATO, component. The new and more aggressive stance suggest that the Canadian military will have to evolve in a direction that reflects the current government’s policy. The 2015 election may have an outcome that precludes significant changes, but it will not be easy to stay the momentum.

So far, the Harper Government has promised to spend more to keep the military afloat, but by less than the minimum estimated by the Parliamentary Budget Officer. The current budget has not seen any increases, which would not be effective until two years from now. It stressed benefits to veterans but capped the total at about C$1.6 billion. In recent weeks, the new Minister of Veterans Affairs, Erin O’Toole, announced various measures for veterans, including a pension benefit for soldiers who are not eligible for the army’s own pension plan, a financial support program for caregivers of wounded soldiers, and hiring staff to handle cases and claims.

Minister Joe Oliver said the government planned allocations of C$11.8 billion over 10 years for military supplies starting in the 2017-2018 fiscal year. Yearly increases of C$184 million will eventually increase the military budget by C$2.3 billion in 2026-2027 compared to the current one. This is not a great number, considering many military leaders believe that the government should spend up to C$3 billion per year just to keep the armed forces at their current level. The government has made special provisions for the special missions of 2015, allocating an extraordinary amount of C$360.3 million this year to fight Islamic state, and an additional sum of C$7.1 million for the military training mission in Ukraine.

The Conservative government was under pressure to increase military budgets – especially from its NATO allies – but the announced measures will have a minimal impact. NATO recommends member governments to devote at least 2% of their budgets to military spending. The military also suffered because of the government’s drive to balance the budget. The next government, he said, will have to make painful choices and possibly even make cuts – either actual or to the planned supply. The Conservative government canceled C$3 billion in expenditures for the purchase of ships, aircraft and military vehicles, promising to make these acquisitions later and there are no specific dispositions on the subject. As the general elections loom closer, the Conservatives would have liked to present themselves as the champions of the military, but their budget suggests a mixed record at best. The recent budget balancing cuts – which allow the Conservatives to avoid having to raise corporate taxes – actually come after a period of relative growth under the Chretien-Martin Liberals, who increased military spending to the point that by 2011, in real terms, it reached the their highest level since the end of World War II.

Nevertheless, the future of Canada’s defense remains uncertain. Surely, major hardware rearmament programs remain, including the purchase of a new generation fighter, likely Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and a whole fleet of new warships. The election in October has forced the government to dig itself into a pigeonhole since the economic situation is rapidly deteriorating, forcing it to use a series of exceptional measures and accounting tricks to keep the promise of eliminating the deficit. Nevertheless, while the Kurdistan and Ukraine missions are especially appealing to Harper supporters, all parties appear to agree with the more interventionist shift in Canadian foreign policy since the beginning of the 21st century, less about peacekeeping and more about following US-led coalitions in a series of wars and military interventions around the world. These include NATO’s war against Yugoslavia in 1999, the invasion and the occupation of Afghanistan, the expulsion in 2004 of Jean-Bertrand Aristide (Haiti’s elected president), and NATO’s war in 2011 for a “regime change” in Libya.

Yet, rather than a ‘peacekeeper,’ throughout the Cold War, Canada has been a staunch ally of the United States army, a NATO member and a founding partner in NORAD. For nearly half a century, Canada’s military resources were dedicated to the planning of a Third World War against the Soviet Union. Indeed, most of Canada’s UN peacekeeping operations all enjoyed Washington’s tacit approval and support. Nevertheless, Canada served an important diplomatic role as a bridge. It held relations with Moscow, and Havana, in the darkest days of the Cold War; it kept an embassy in Tehran until just a few years ago and avoided aggressive stances and policies. As part of Canada’s new and more aggressive foreign policy, which is what has really changed rather than military capabilities, the government appears to be leading an effort to distort the notion that Canada is a “peacekeeper.” The media have abutted this by celebrating the achievements of the Canadian army in the past and present struggles, and PM Harper likes to remind his voters that Canada is a “warrior nation” and that WW1 was an “honorable war.” Canadian Forces have been almost constantly at war since the turn of the century: Afghanistan (2001-2011), Libya (2011), Iraq since last fall and now in Syria. In addition, Canada is deeply involved in three major US-led strategic and military offensives on the world stage. The war against Islamic state – a war that has emerged from a series of wars that the United States has undertaken in the Middle East, and one which has the ostensible goal of ensuring US hegemony in the largest oil-exporting region in the world.

Canada has long supported the United States in its attempt to transform Ukraine into a satellite of the West and to extend NATO to Russia’s borders. The Harper government, with the full support of the opposition parties, deployed Canadian aircraft in Eastern Europe and warships in the Black Sea to intensify NATO threats against Russia. Canada signed a secret military agreement with the United States to include Canada in the “pivot to Asia” policy to encircle and strategically isolate China. Canada also participates in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), through which Washington seeks to establish a larger regional economic bloc led by the United States. Canada’s Communications Security Establishment (CSE), it should be noted, is one of the key partners of the US National Security Agency (NSA), spying on governments and citizens around the world in order to eliminate “threats to security.”

There is global pressure on Canada to respond to the United States’ relative decline in economic power and the rise of new powers. Canada calculates that the best way to defend and assert its own economic and strategic interests is to support American interventions. The military is the only aspect where the United States enjoys supremacy over its rivals.

This policy is reflected in last week’s surprise visit by Prime Minister Stephen Harper to Canada’s Special Forces stationed in northern Iraq and Kuwait. Harper used this trip to promote Canada’s growing role in the newest Middle East war as well as the thrust of his government’s policy to expand the powers of the national security apparatus – portraying these measures as required responses to Islamic terrorism. In a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the president of the autonomous Kurdish region Masoud Barzani, Harper reaffirmed the commitment of the Conservative government to continue its ongoing military operations in the country and in neighboring Syria. Harper seeks to present this military intervention as a humanitarian mission to protect the civilian population against Islamic State. He announced modest sums totaling some C$160 million to help rebuild Iraq and to support other countries in the Middle East facing a massive influx of Syrian refugees. In fact, there are Canadian oil companies operating in Kurdistan, producing and shipping oil. In recent years, Iraq has become a major trading partner for Canada, with bilateral trade in 2012 totaling more than $4 billion, making the country one of the most important trading partners for Canada in the Middle East.

In addition, Iraq is seen as offering significant growth opportunities for oil companies and Canadian infrastructure. The Conservative government named Iraq as one of Canada’s “development partners”, which allows Baghdad to receive additional financial assistance and other forms of support from the Canadian government. The Kurdish region is one of the most lucrative parts of the country for Canadian investment. Several oil companies and other companies have operations there and the Harper government last year opened a sales office in Erbil, the regional capital. This office is responsible for the expansion of Canadian investment in Iraq and was promoted at the time by the government as necessary because the Iraqi economy was one of the fastest growing in the world – notwithstanding the fact that Kurdish authorities are being challenged by Baghdad over their handling of oil contracts with foreign companies. In Erbil, Harper took time to visit the office of Melwood Geometrix, a Montreal company specializing in precast concrete. Media commentators have noted the electoral nature of this visit, as in many other Harper appearances in Iraq and Kuwait. His meeting with the local manager Melwood Geometrix took place before the cameras and after the greetings, Harper received a Montreal Canadiens hockey jersey.

Canada has deployed 69 military Special Forces to train and advise Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq, six combat aircraft CF-18, two surveillance aircraft and an aircraft refueller, all supported by some 600 members of the CAF, to help the coalition bombing missions. In late March, the government extended Canada’s military mission in the Middle East until April 2016 and authorized the FCC to take part in the bombing campaign in Syria, making Canada the only Western ally of the United States to attack Syria. Bombing Syria is a violation of international law and tantamount to a declaration of war against the government of that country. Moreover, it would make more sense for Canada to attack Islamic State in Syria if it had friendly relations with Iran and Russia, which are Syria’s de-facto regional protectors. Rather, the government treats the governments of both those countries with contempt. At first it was said that ground troops in Iraq would not engaged in a combat and be limited to training and advising the Kurdish militia behind the front line. However, within months, it was revealed that Canadian troops have regularly gone to the front to directing attacks against Islamic State, asking for air strikes by coalition aircraft. In January, the Canadian army admitted that Special Forces troops were at the front almost 20% of the time.

During his visit to Kuwait, Harper has cultivated the image of a prime minister at war with appeals to nationalism and Canadian militarism, even if the military itself has not been the recipient of significant additional funding. Although it remains unclear whether the Conservatives will call for an early election, it is clear that whether the vote takes place this spring or next October, they will mount a bellicose campaign, stoking Canadian nationalism and appealing to anti-Muslim sentiment – in no small way heightened by Bill C-51. Harper has already indicated his intention to portray the opposition parties as being “soft” on the issue of terrorism because they have not fully endorsed the combat mission in the Middle East. He also said that if they were elected they would amend Bill C-51, which, it is reminded, allows CSIS (Canadian Security Intelligence Service) to violate virtually any law to disrupt whatever it deems a threat to Canada’s national and economic security or its territorial integrity. In his tour of the Middle East, Harper took the opportunity to promote Bill C-51, saying: “We are working to give our security agencies all the modern tools needed to identify terrorists and foil their plans, including a greater capacity to stem the recruitment and flow of fighters in the country.”

This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com

The post Canada Steps Out Of Peacekeeper Role And Into The Unknown – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(Civil.Ge) — Georgian Defense Minister, Tina Khidasheli, is visiting Georgian troops serving in Afghanistan.

This is her first foreign trip since becoming defense minister earlier this month.

The Defense Minister marks Georgia’s Independence Day on May 26 with Georgian soldiers in Afghanistan.

“I want to congratulate Georgian soldiers from here, Afghanistan, where we prove that Georgia struggles for global security alongside with the civilized world,” she said in a video address from Kabul aired during the oath-taking ceremony of up to 200 soldiers on Freedom Square in Tbilisi – one of the main ceremonies, attended by the President, PM and other officials, marking the Independence Day.

Georgia is the second largest troop contributor to NATO-led Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan with about 885 servicemen.

They are deployed at the Resolute Support mission headquarters in Kabul; as well as in the Bagram Airfield and at the German army’s Camp Marmal in Mazar-i-Sharif.

Georgian troops’ duties focus on security and rapid reaction force.

The post Georgia Defense Minister Visits Troops In Afghanistan appeared first on Eurasia Review.

On May 14, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry told journalists that India’s primary foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), was “involved in various terrorist activities” across Pakistan. He went on to add that this matter had been taken up “a number of times” at the highest level with India through diplomatic channels. The remarks of the Pakistani foreign secretary were one in a series of such comments that have emanated from the Pakistani military, bureaucracy and the political establishment in the past few weeks.

The acts attributed to R&AW would have the agency punching way above its weight. The image “makeover” of R&AW appears part of a more coherent strategy rather than the uttering of some loose-lipped functionaries. It is argued that the recent events in Yemen, Afghanistan and China are shaping a new Pakistani approach to play down the activities of its militant proxies and at the same time provide a fresh “spin” to the activities of R&AW in the region, bolstered by the theme of a Hindu nationalist anti-minorities government in New Delhi.

Key Events

The Yemen crisis and the agony that Pakistan went through over its decision not to participate alongside the Saudis in their military intervention in Yemen against the Iran backed Houthi rebels has delivered an important lesson to Pakistan. The ongoing crisis in the Middle East, rise of the Islamic State(IS) and its successes, the Saudi-Iran rivalry and the Sunni-Shia sectarian tensions have impressed upon Pakistan that it cannot be business as usual in its future dealings both externally and internally. Quite simply, Pakistan can no longer take sides in the Islamic world and neither can it be seen to be allowing the targeting of Shia and other Muslim minorities in the country.

China Pakistan Economic Corridor

Pakistan would like (and ideally if it can get China too) to believe that India is significantly involved in the strife in Balochistan because of the rapidly changing geopolitics of the region, particularly with regard to the recently announced China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In addition to the CPEC, China is also reportedly financing the so-called ‘Peace Pipeline’ natural gas pipeline from Iran to energy-starved Pakistan ($1.5 billion-1.8 billion). The 1,682km pipeline through Balochistan will transfer gas from Iran’s south to the Pakistani cities of Gwadar and Nawabshah. The CPEC has been sold to the Pakistani masses by the political establishment as the panacea to most of their ills; thus any threat to CPEC and Chinese investment would be commonly viewed very strongly and emotionally.

TTP Blowback

Three jihadist groups, including one led by a key commander, Matiur Rehman, who has served as a senior leader in Al Qaeda and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, have recently united with the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan-TTP). The TTP had splintered in 2014 after a leadership dispute that followed the killing of its leader, Hakeemullah Mehsud in a drone strike. The merger is seen as a part of TTP’s efforts to reconsolidate itself, which includes a closer coordination with Al Qaeda. Two other factions (Jamaat-ul Ahrar and Lashkar-e-Islam) had joined TTP early last month. TTP’s consolidation is seen as a likely precursor to a fierce response to the Pakistani military’s counter-insurgency operations in the areas adjoining the Afghanistan border. Pakistan military has always attributed TTP’s terror activities as being instigated and supported by R&AW. The recent declassification of bin Laden documents reveals otherwise.

Spinning the Narrative

In a recent official statement and a rare public criticism, the Pakistani military has accused R&AW of whipping up terrorism in the country and that it could result in increased tension between the nuclear-armed rivals. The accusation came at a meeting on May 5 of the army’s top commanders in Rawalpindi which had been called to review an offensive against militants in the northwest and other security issues. The conference reportedly took “serious notice” of R&AW’s involvement in Pakistan. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, in a television interview later, said that R&AW was “an enemy organisation” and that it had been formed to “undo Pakistan and wipe it off the map of the world.”

The Pakistani government also planned to hold a high-level meeting under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to take major decisions to ‘monitor’ and ‘tackle’ the activities of R&AW in Pakistan and raise the issue at an international level. The meeting was also to review the “evidence” of the agency’s involvement in recent incidents of terrorism in Karachi, Balochistan and other areas.

Kabul Twist

Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) on May 18 signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to share intelligence and conduct coordinated operations against terrorists. The MoU, signed almost a week after Nawaz Sharif and General Raheel Sharif visited Kabul to discuss bilateral relations, will see both the spy agencies identify common enemies and carry out joint operations on either side of the border. During the visit Kabul was asked not to allow R&AW to operate from Afghan territory against Pakistan.

Political Analyst Musa Khan Jalalzai in a Pakistani newspaper went to the extent of suspecting India’s role in embodying the Islamic State and re-engaging the TTP by establishing their link with the leadership of IS in Afghanistan. He makes reference to reports alleging that the Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval had organised a meeting between TTP and IS leaders in the Indian consulate in Kandahar. He also goes on to allude to the possibility that India might use IS against Pakistan or China.

Assessment

In a normal situation Pakistanis seeing the hand of R&AW anywhere and everywhere (without a shred of evidence) would not be a cause of worry, as over decades the practice of blaming India to mask failures and externalize the blame has worked well in Pakistan’s politics. The current upswing may have been forced by New Delhi’s continued terror allegations against Pakistan and their acceptance in the international discourse on the South Asian and trans-national terrorism globally. However, the prevailing situation in the Middle East and that in Afghanistan nearer to home gives these accusations a more sinister edge.

It is no secret that CPEC’s prospects and potential are critically linked to the security environment in general, and the physical safety of the Chinese in particular. CPEC will present a soft target to the disruptive elements in the country. Therefore it was no surprise when a Pakistani interior ministry official stated that R&AW has intensified its efforts to destabilise Pakistan after the recent agreement on CPEC was inked. There is a strong possibility that the R&AW bogey will also be used to quell any indigenous opposition to the CPEC in Balochistan.

The Yemen conflict, turmoil in the Middle East caused by the IS, regional rivalries, sectarianism and an active Iranian diplomacy has shown Pakistan that it is very difficult to straddle the Shia-Sunni divide and it needs to reinvent itself as a true progressive Muslim state looking beyond sectarianism to issues of development and economic prosperity of all Muslims. A nation being targeted by R&AW and terrorist proxies supported by vested interests for its leadership to the Islamic world. Pakistan needs a non-Muslim threat as a rallying point and is trying to peddle the idea of Modi-NSA Doval-RA&W-RSS as a potent threat mix. Pakistan is also seeing more advantage in attributing IS acts of terror to R&AW.

With global focus on its nukes and the deteriorating security situation in the neighbourhood and within the country, Pakistan’s attempts to blame India for its mess might find a few takers. It is a possibility that India would be guarding against.

*Monish Gulati is Associate Director (Strategic Affairs) with the Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted at m_gulati_2001@yahoo.com This article was published at South Asia Monitor.

The post Pakistan’s RAW Fears – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The effects of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) consisting all the destructive means like nuclear, chemical and biological and their disastrous consequences persist for centuries, especially radiation and other hazardous effects endure in the atmosphere affecting many other in the neighbouring regions. Moreover, a strapping reality also prevails about the lesser chances of their usage as those being merely for deterrence purposes, therefore, for many experts, the conventional weapons would again become a preference of many great powers in the coming future.

In certain circumstances when the military apparatus becomes a pertinent means of protecting the vital national interest, the conventional means only turn out to be the ultimate option because WMDs mostly serve tactical purposes of deterring the enemy and controlling its actions to prevent it from any possible aggression. Any use of WMDs will only mean falling into a situation of catastrophic destruction because in such wars, neither side will be victorious. At present, the conventional military supremacy has become penchant move of many nuclear powers, since they realize the fact that their nuclear weapons only serve a political goal and a long-term pursuance of such goals will cost as a huge burden on their economy however, except as a means of last resort, the nuclear weapons have no valid or persuasive military role.

For non-nuclear weapon states, the conventional military balance has a varying role in the strategic scenarios, especially in the conflict-ridden regions given the fact; any imbalance in the equilibrium could destabilize the strategic stability and trigger an arms race where each side will try to maximize its power even not ignoring the option of acquiring WMDs likewise, the conventional military balance also puts states in an extremely difficult situation where each side is eventually compelled to maintain the status-quo and such marvels of attaining the edge in military assets can also prove to be a costly deal, whereas, any discrepancy in the balance of power, a number of concerns will arise; indulging two sides in an unanticipated arms race like in the case of many African states but such arms races are very limited in their scope and would not endanger global peace and security at large. The conventional types of warfare with unadventurous weapons in the
battleground are aimed only targeting opponent’s side without causing colossal destruction.

Of course, when the conventional balance of power gets undermined, it will definitely, pave the way for the struggle to acquire nuclear weapons. For example, in South Asian case, the failure of conventional power equilibrium resulted into the development of nuclear weapon and interminable ballistic missile race jeopardizing the regional and global peace. Initially in the post-partition era, Pakistan had passed through serious threats to its survival and was deprived of its due share in financial assets and military equipment. The unfavorable circumstances prevailed and by the next year of their independence both India and Pakistan fought a war in 1948.

For Pakistan it became an issue of its existence, therefore, it had to look for a variety of options to safeguard its security, interestingly, after the partition all ordnance factories had also fallen to the Indian side, whereas the weak economic conditions of Pakistan were also not in favour of importing military equipment.

This was a time when Pakistan experienced a two-prong dilemma i.e. to ensure its survival and become self-sufficient with lesser means. Keeping in view such challenges Pakistan also joined the SEATO and CENTO in 1954 and 1955 respectively, but all in vain and failed to rescue it during the war and crises time. Ultimately, the country focused more towards the self-reliance programs and the continuing efforts, especially during the last three decades, Pakistan today is successfully standing in the row of the countries that possess highly sophisticated military technology like advanced versions of missiles, tanks, aircrafts, drones etc.

India due to its huge investments in conventional military arsenals has a hefty military supremacy over Pakistan. Pakistan’s defence spending is only Rs700.2 billion for the 2014-15 fiscal years, whereas, the Indian defence budget by 12% addition with last year’s defence budget has now become Rs. 2.29 trillion. The future has rightly been projected by the Britain’s ministry of defence that by 2045, India will probably become third largest global conventional military arsenal with an estimated expenditure exceeding 654 billion US dollars on its defence sector.

However, the modern Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) has further convoluted the future of the conventional weapons involving new doctrines, strategies, tactics and technologies and ascendancy of quality over the quantity leading towards an irrevocable change in the conduct of warfare and the transformation of military equipment by involving fully automated unmanned machines in the battleground and the command line monitoring all the maneuverability through real-time satellite and space technology controls.

* Nasurullah Brohi works as a Research Fellow at the Strategic Vision Institute in Islamabad and can be reached at nasurullahsvi@outlook.com

The post Perspectives On Global Security And Conventional Military Capability – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By R.S. Kalha*

As the dust settles after the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to China and the time for instant analysis required by modern visual and print media inevitably passes; it is in the fullness of time to take a calm and dispassionate look at where we stand in the context of Sino-Indian relations. As there are space constraints, let us restrict our examination to the three vital issues of the boundary question, the huge trade imbalance and regional strategic concerns. Perhaps it would be more worthwhile to initiate the process of assessment by first looking at what the Chinese have to say. We are, of course, not privy to what the Chinese leadership said to our prime minister in their meetings. That indeed must remain in the realm of confidentiality, but what is in the public domain, particularly in the tightly controlled Chinese media, does give us an inkling of the thinking of the Chinese leadership.

That there was no change in the Chinese position, both on the final settlement of the boundary question as also on Prime Minister Modi’s request for early clarification of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) was amply clear. Writing in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) paper Global Times of May 11, 2015, Hu Zhiyong of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences stated that:

“Leaders from both China and India should not only strengthen mutual political trust, but also stick to a series of agreed principles and match their rhetoric with action. In light of this, Modi should no longer visit the disputed border region…. nor should he deliver any remarks that infringe on the consensus on bilateral ties. Meanwhile, the Indian government should completely stop supporting the Dalai Lama, and stop making the Tibetan issue a stumbling block to the Sino-Indian relationship.”

That Prime Minister Modi was clearly disenchanted with the Chinese attitude was spelt out in the presence of the Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, when he exhorted the Chinese to “re-consider its approach on some of the issues that hold us back from realizing the full potential of our partnership”. It would be recalled that since November 1985 the Chinese have been insisting that India give “concessions in the eastern sector” for the boundary talks to proceed further.

Realizing that the two sides were going nowhere as regards the boundary negotiations, Prime Minister Modi was entirely right in urging that a ‘clarification’ of the LAC would be a positive step in eliminating the possibility of incursions. Speaking in public at the Tsinghua University, Modi urged the Chinese leadership to “resume the process of clarifying the LAC…without prejudice to our positions on the boundary question”. Even on this reasonable proposal there was deafening silence from the Chinese side. The reasons are obvious. Prime minister Zhou Enlai had confirmed in a letter of November 4, 1962 to Jawaharlal Nehru that: “In the east it (LAC) coincides with the McMahon Line (Note: word ‘so-called’ before McMahon Line is missing) and in the west and in the middle sector it coincides with the traditional boundary as put forth by the Chinese.”

So if in the east the LAC coincides with the McMahon Line as per Zhou’s letter, then it should be easy to demarcate it on the ground, for both the Indian and Chinese governments have a copy of the original McMahon map on which the McMahon Line is delineated. In the case of Myanmar, the Chinese have accepted the McMahon alignment of about 160 kilometers that covers the Sino-Myanmar sector.

It is obvious that in November 1962 Zhou made a tactical mistake by aligning the LAC with the McMahon Line. Realizing this, the Chinese have ever since then been trying to obfuscate the issue; for if you demarcate the LAC on the ground you are actually demarcating the McMahon Line. The Chinese fear that once this is done, the demarcated LAC would itself, in course of time, evolve into the boundary. Perhaps prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee also did not realise that he was letting the Chinese off the hook, when he conceded during his visit in 2003 that the Sino-Indian boundary be negotiated “afresh, based on political parameters” (emphasis added). Prime minister Manmohan Singh also pursued the same line as Vajpayee when he negotiated the 2005 ‘Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the Boundary Question’. It is not in the public domain if Manmohan Singh pushed for clarifications of the LAC subsequent to the last effort that petered out in 2005.

Thus it is entirely to the credit of Prime Minister Modi and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval that they have brought the focus back on first seeking clarifications of the LAC. It would require extreme dexterity on the part of Chinese diplomacy to wriggle out of the commitment of their former prime minister, particularly in the vital eastern sector.

On the trade deficit issue, Chinese commentators tried, once again, to put the onus back on India. Zhao Gancheng, Director South Asia Studies, Shanghai Institute for International Studies wrote in the Global Times on May 17, that: “Even if New Delhi keeps persuading investors to do business in India…. the current situation is far from reassuring. Power failures happen frequently. There is a lack of decent roads and ports for transportation. Labor unrest occurs from time to time. Attracting investments against such backdrop will prove to be a major problem.”

Modi tried hard to dispel such adverse notions. He told his audience at Tsinghua University that, “India is now the next frontier of the economic revolution. We have the demography for it. About 800 million people in India are below the age of 35 years… We have taken sweeping steps to reform our policies and open up more to foreign direct investments… We are eliminating unnecessary regulations and simplifying our procedures…. We are building a tax regime that is predictable, stable and competitive and scaling up investments in next generation infrastructure – roads, ports, railways, airports, telecom, digital networks and clean energy”.

Modi did well to set up a ‘task force’ to resolve ticklish trade issues, but it remains incomprehensible why the Chinese have been allowed to dump steel in India without corresponding measures. Chinese steel exports to India have gone up by 71 per cent this year. Both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li did promise to bring down the trade deficit, but it remains to be seen how effective their promise is. Whether the Chinese were impressed by Modi’s intervention also remains to be seen.

On regional strategic issues there seems to have been little movement. Although Prime Minister Modi stressed that “China’s support for India’s permanent membership of a reformed UN Security Council, and for India’s membership of export control regimes like Nuclear Suppliers Group will do more than just strengthen our international cooperation”; the Chinese simply acknowledged India’s desire without any commitments.

On the other hand, a Chinese commentator openly stressed that: “With the Maritime Silk Road, the AIIB, the China-Pak Economic Corridor and the surfacing of a Chinese nuclear submarine in Sri Lankan waters; Chinese ‘strength’ in the Indian Ocean Region has been demonstrated as never before.”

Thus giving forward traction to Sino-Indian relations remains a formidable task. It will take a number of high-level visits, more plain speaking and a more robust push for economic development at home. Nevertheless Prime Minister Modi’s visit is a task well begun, but it is only a small step forward.

*R.S. Kalha is a former Indian diplomat and author of book “India-China boundary issues; Quest for settlement”. He can be contacted at contributions@spsindia.in

The post Modi’s Visit To China: A Task Well Begun – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Iranian security experts have thwarted an industrial espionage attempt on Islamic Republic’s oil ministry, cyber police chief announced, claiming the attack originated in the US.

Speaking at a cyber crime forum in Tehran on Tuesday, the head of Iran’s Cyber Police (FATA) Brigadier General Seyed Kamal Hadianfar announced that Cyber Attacks Emergency Center had defended the oil ministry against hackers. The alleged attack took place during a four-day holiday on March 21-24.

“These hackers were from the US” Hadianfar said, as cited by FARS news agency. “The IP address for these hackers was in America.”

The chief of cyber police said that Tehran had already informed Washington via an official letter and issued an “international judicial order” as FATA passed the issue to the foreign ministry.

FATA discovers, identifies and solves some 90 percent of Internet crimes committed against Iran, Iran’s Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said speaking at the same event. “Iran has had a low number of cyber crimes as compared to other countries despite the presence of over 46 million Internet users in the country,” the minister added.

The cyber standoff between Iran and the US has been widely reported over recent years. Both US and Tehran have accused each other of cybercrimes aimed at strategic sectors of the government and the economy.

In February 2015, US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper named Iran among the leading cyber threats to the United States. In the same month the Islamic Republic revealed that several cyber attacks on Iran’s scientific and industrial infrastructures had been thwarted.

“Our enemies have undertaken many cyber war actions and of course the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Armed Forces have also made eye-catching progress in area of cyber warfare and have been able to give proper responses to the enemies at different times,” Senior Military Aide to the Supreme Leader Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi was quoted at the time as saying.

One of the most well-known attacks on Iranian state infrastructure was carried out in 2010. A sophisticated malware called Stuxnet, apparently designed by a state actor, was used to infect equipment at Natanz nuclear facilities. The destructive computer worm compromised centrifuges, crippling Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities. Tehran blamed the attack on the US, with Edward Snowden later confirming the tool was likely created by the NSA and co-written by Israel.

For its part the US State Department earlier this month refereed to Iran as a “sophisticated cyber adversary.” Iran is “rapidly building cyber warfare capabilities” and may be planning a cyber attack on critical infrastructure, a State Department security report warned.

The post Iran Claims US Attempted Cyber Attack On Oil Ministry appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Israeli air force has started carrying out attacks on the Gaza Strip, as the Palestinian resistance movements of Hamas and Islamic Jihad deny launching projectiles into Israel.

Israeli warplanes carried out raids on the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza Strip, on Rafah in the south, and on Khan Younis early on Wednesday.

At least three raids were also carried out on the Palestinian city of Beit Lahia.

On Tuesday, Hamas and Islamic Jihad denied launching rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel, following reports in Israeli media claiming that five rockets had landed in southern Israel hours earlier.

According to the Israeli army, at least one of the rockets hit the town of Gan Yavne with no reports of damages or casualties.

Original article

The post Israel Launches Airstrikes Across Gaza Strip appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Selçuk Çolakoğlu and Emre Tunç Sakaoğlu

A majority of the projects introduced by China within the scope of the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ vision have yet to reach maturity. Nevertheless, the draft outlines prepared for these projects promise great potential in the eyes of many regional countries including Turkey, which have received relevant proposals with great enthusiasm. A combined budget worth nearly $40 billion will be allocated to these projects through which China is planning to boost its influence over Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East in particular. Another objective set by Beijing when introducing the projects in question was to promote China as a leader country which is deemed indispensable for regional stability, development, and integration.

As to the prerequisite for the realization of all the Silk Road projects, reinforcing regional transportation infrastructures and improving intra-regional logistic links come to the fore. In that regard, the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project is expected to form the backbone of a greater vision of multi-dimensional cooperation among Turkey, China, and the rest of the region concerned; and raise the level of relations between these countries to the highest level. Within the scope of the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project, the parties involved hope to put into operation a railway line that passes through China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and Central Asian countries before reaching Turkey and Europe. The new railway line will function as the latest continental land bridge and lay the groundwork for the creation of a vast market that is expected to surpass $1 trillion in cumulative volume by virtue of low tariffs, extensive people-to-people contacts, and improved interdependency.

Ankara’s approach to the subject

The main reason why Ankara receives Silk Road projects favorably, and leans toward the idea of actively taking part in the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project in particular, is the firm belief that commercial relations between Turkey and Central Asian countries will be amplified through the actualization of such prospective projects as soon as possible. Through this project, Ankara is also looking forward to capitalize on its geostrategic advantage that essentially derives from lying at the intersection zone of traditional transport routes connecting Europe and Asia. With this project, it wishes to place itself once again at the center of inter-continental transport routes, this time by way of harboring a major railway corridor between Europe and Asia that will facilitate trade in fossil fuels, minerals, and manufactured goods, alongside agricultural products and other raw materials. Besides, Turkey believes the project will set the scene for closer bilateral relations with China based on mutual trust and substantial economic cooperation as new railway lines envisaged by the project will carry a significant quantity of passengers and freight on both directions between the two countries concerned. Moreover, bilateral economic relations will be protected from the potentially disturbing effects of fluctuations in the value of the dollar thanks to two-way trade in national currencies instead. In sum, the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project is seen as a potential leverage that can allow Ankara to become the ultimate playmaker in the Euroasian arena while increasing its economic and political radius of action.

The first inter-governmental framework agreement on the construction phase of the specific section of the railway that falls within Turkey’s borders was signed in 2010. An overall roadmap for the project’s implementation was determined in 2012, pursuant to a set of consecutive agreements signed in the meantime in order to clarify the technical and bureaucratic details of operation. The agreements in question also pledged contracts to Chinese firms for the construction of a large segment of the project’s relevant section.

Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway

The ‘East-West High-Speed Railway Project’, i.e. the phase of the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project that is to be undertaken by Turkey, will link the eastern Turkish city of Kars with the country’s westernmost city of Edirne. Loans to be provided by Chinese banks, together with Chinese investments, will play a crucial role at this stage. The railway line that falls within Turkey’s borders will reach approximately 2000 km and cost around $30 million in total. However, an agreement is yet to be reached with the Chinese Ministry of Railways for the construction and operation of a high-speed railway that will traverse the whole country along the east-west axis. The completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway (BTK) and the subsequent modernization of all the railway systems between Edirne and Kars to allow for high-speed freight transit is a prerequisite for the realization of the entire project.

According to estimates, the BTK will be able to carry one million passengers and 6.5 million tons of freight per year at the initial stage right after it becomes operational. In a similar vein, the volume of bilateral trade between Turkey and China is expected to double after five years. In the medium term, it is expected to transport 3 million passengers and 17 million tons of goods per year. And in 20 years, the railway will attain the sufficient capacity that would allow it to haul 30 million tons of goods per year.

The construction work at 20 km of railways out of the 76 km-long section of the BTK that lies within Turkish territories is yet to be completed. Moreover, a 4.5 km-long tunnel is still under construction on the border between Turkey and Georgia. According to the State Railways of the Turkish Republic (TCDD), China National Machinery Import-Export Corporation is working in cooperation with Ankara and Tbilisi to finalize the BTK as soon as possible. Indeed, the governments concerned laid the foundations of the BTK in 2008 but the planned finished date has been repeatedly postponed. It was lastly announced that the project will come into operation by 2018 at the earliest.

The ‘Iron Silk Road’ vs. the China-Europe Southern Railway Route

Today, railroad transportation between China and Europe is carried out along three alternative routes. Containers that are first shipped from China’s eastern ports to the Vostochny Port in the Russian Far East are transported to Germany along the Eastern Railway Route via Russia and Belarus. The total length of this line is approximately 11,000 km. The Northern Railway Route, which is approximately 10,000 km long, enables the transportation of goods from Beijing and China’s northern provinces to Germany via the same countries in parallel with the Trans-Siberian railway. Lastly, the Southern Railway Route, which became operational in 2012 and covers a total 14,500 km, conveys goods shipped from China’s inner provinces to the Port of Hamburg via the XUAR, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, and Poland.

The Southern Railway Route, which was inaugurated in October 2012 and expanded further to reach other cities in inner China in the following years, connects the German cities of Duisburg and Hamburg to the Chinese cities of Wuhan, Chongqing, Chengdu, and Zhengzhou. This route enables low-cost but fast and relatively short-distance transportation between China and Europe. It takes 19 days to transport goods between Hamburg and the most distant Chinese city connected to this route. It is true that transportation along this route takes a week longer than the 12-day period envisaged for the projected ‘Iron Silk Road’. Still, a duration of 19 days is much more favorable when compared with the only other available option – waiting for 45 days before cargo steamers departing from China’s eastern ports arrive in Hamburg. The most salient problem with this line in the eyes of Chinese decision-makers is that it makes no contribution to China’s influence over the rest of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East. Therefore the basic motivation behind China’s proposal of the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project appears to be a long-term vision of linking the country’s main trade routes with those passing through the Middle East and Central Asia in an attempt to create a unified network of complementary economies with China at the ‘center of gravity'; rather than an urgent need for a new route that would connect China to Europe. On the other hand, Turkey is inclined to perceive of this project as a complete alternative to the China-Europe Southern Railway Route, which constitutes the southern branch of the already existing Eurasian land bridge.

Alternative routes for the ‘Iron Silk Road’

What the Chinese propose within the scope of the ‘Iron Silk Road’ concept is actually a project that is still in its infancy. There are two alternative routes proposed for the project; and which one will be chosen is a question yet to be answered. The projected railway will either pass through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia before it reaches northeastern Turkey; or through Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran to reach the southeast of our country. The former alternative in question, if chosen, will cover a distance that is 2000 km shorter than the Northern and Eastern Railway Routes between China and Europe that have been in service since 1970s.

China South Corporation (CSR), a state-owned company in China which is the world’s largest manufacturer of locomotives and rolling stock, estimates that the latter alternative will cover a longer distance than the former – around 6000 km – from XUAR to İstanbul. It will cost around 150 billion dollars, and it won’t be ready to operate until 2020.

Marmaray, the Eurasia Tunnel, and the Third Bosphorus Bridge

Through Marmaray and the Eurasia Tunnel, which are introduced as sister projects, it is claimed that passengers arriving from China will be able to travel from İstanbul to London without any interruption. Marmaray is expected to carry 1 million passengers per day in the future. And if all goes to plan, freight trains will operate non-stop between Asia and Europe by crossing the Third Bosphorus Bridge that is still under construction. However, the construction of an additional 63 km-long high-speed railway will be required for trains that will operate between China’s Western cities and İstanbul’s European side to traverse the rest of Turkish territories on the European continent before reaching border gates. Among the high-speed railways currently operating in Turkey, only the Ankara-İstanbul line (533 km) will be integrated into the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project.

Problems faced

Even though Ankara pins all its hopes on Marmaray, the Turkish phase of the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project is probably going to follow another route instead. The railway’s final destination in Asia can be the Gulf of İskenderun in southern Turkey, the Gulf of İzmit to the country’s northwest, or the Port of İzmir on the country’s western coast. That is essentially because there are technical incompatibilities between the railways that link European cities with each other and Marmaray. Besides, trains that will shuttle between China and Europe via Turkey will be able to follow only a single line if they pass through Marmaray. On the other hand, China-Europe railroads that are in service today consist of two parallel lines, with one exclusive to each opposite direction.

To sum up, the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project is still face to face with numerous financial, bureaucratic, and technical obstacles. Major challenges include differences in rail gauge between neighboring countries, disconnections within national railway infrastructures, and restrictions placed on the movement of goods and people between borders. For instance due to differences in track gauge, trains are required to stop at bogie changing stations before crossing the border between Turkey and Georgia and those between several other countries on the projected Silk Road route, which causes a considerable loss of time. Moreover, the level of logistic cooperation and political dialogue between Central Asian countries is still low, which makes it utterly difficult to undertake large cross-border projects as such. Finally, large swathes of the territory through which the ‘Iron Silk Road’ will be required to pass are covered with steep and isolated mountains and subject to high security risks. It is a troublesome task to construct and protect railroads that would pass through these territories, parts of which harbor notorious criminal and terrorist groups.

Apart from that, it is underlined that the ‘Iron Silk Road’ project will completely exclude Russia and Armenia in any case. Moreover, an alternative route proposed for the project that is envisaged to pass through the Caspian Sea will circumvent Iran as well. Taking into account the political affinity and economic interdependence among Central Asian countries, Russia, and China on the one hand; and that among China, Russia, Iran, and Armenia on the other, the feasibility of the project comes under serious question from a down-to-earth perspective.

The post ‘Iron Silk Road': Dream Or Reality? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Iran’s Foreign Minister has spoken out about “understanding and dialogue” with its neighbours as regional tensions rise over the conflict in Yemen.

While a Saudi-led coalition continues to carry out air strikes on Yemen, Mohammad Javad Zarif said: “Dialogue and understanding with the countries in the region are one of the priorities of Iran’s foreign policy.”

IRNA reports that the Iranian minister said on the sidelines of the Islamic Cooperation Organization summit on Tuesday night: “The terrorist group Daesh (ISIS) has put all countries under threat.”

He stressed that in view of the ISIS threat, the countries in the region should work together rather than “mobilize against each other”.
Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran has no problems with the Gulf Cooperation Council states and is willing to meet with any of their foreign ministers, including the Saudi foreign minister.

Iranian-Saudi relations are under serious stress as Saudi forces bomb Houthi strongholds in Yemen. Iran has expressed its support for the Houthis and condemned foreign intervention in that country.

The Gulf Cooperation states are also at odds with Iran over the crisis in Syria. Iran supports the Beshar Assad regime, while Arab countries in the Gulf region, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have been linked to Assad opposition groups.

Zarif said: “I tell our Saudi brothers we want a brighter future for all nations in the region, and what they are doing in Yemen will be to their own detriment.”

Meanwhile, Zarif also told reporters that Iran supports the government of Iraq, saying: “The government of Iraq is standing against terrorists with all its might, and we will assist them in this regard.”

Following the recent capture of Ramadi by ISIS, Iraq’s Shia militia forces, which are supported by Iran, have been called on to push back ISIS advances in Anbar Province.

The post Iran Calls For Understanding Amid Regional Divides Over Yemen Conflict appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Jaya Ramachandran

In a carrot-and-stick approach, the 34-nation Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has commended Poland for having combined robust economic growth with reducing some of the pressures on its environment since it joined the European Union in 2004. At the same time, it asks Poland to decrease its economy’s reliance on fossil fuels and make growth greener.

The report also praises the eastern European country for having brought environmental laws closer to European norms. But it adds that Poland still has the fourth most carbon-intensive economy of OECD countries, however, due to the dominance of coal in its energy mix.

Greenhouse emissions from road transport are up nearly 70 percent since 2000 and rising as higher incomes enable more people to drive cars.

According to the report, Poland has increased its use of biomass but fossil fuels still make up 91 percent of its energy supply versus an EU average of 73 percent, and it remains the EU’s top producer and consumer of coal. The Review recommends investing in cleaner energy and transport, and reviewing how energy is taxed and subsidised to help shift to an economy less reliant on fossil fuels.

The OECD’s Environmental Performance Review of Poland finds the country has made visible progress in decoupling greenhouse gas emissions, air pollutants, waste generation and water withdrawal from economic growth, as well as surpassing its Kyoto targets. Over 2000-2012, Poland’s greenhouse emissions rose just 1 percent alongside a 56 percent jump in gross domestic product (GDP).

The Kyoto targets relate to the Kyoto Protocol, named after a Japanese city. It is an international treaty, which extends the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that commits State Parties to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, based on the premise that (a) global warming exists and (b) man-made CO2 emissions have caused it.

According to the report, “When Poland joined the European Union, its economy and environmental management made impressive progress,” said OECD Environment Director Simon Upton, presenting the Review in Warsaw. “Poland now needs to build on that progress and decide how it is going to make the transition to a resource-efficient, low-emission economy.”

Poland’s CO₂ emissions were 0.42 tonnes/GDP unit in 2012 versus an OECD average of 0.31 tonnes, notes the report. Poland also had Europe’s highest level of air pollution from fine particulates in 2012. Outdoor air pollution causes thousands of deaths every year by worsening breathing and circulatory disorders. Indoor air pollution from inefficient coal heaters also creates serious health risks.

Given that the bulk of EU cohesion and structural funds invested in Poland since 2007 went into road transport, the Review suggests prioritising rail infrastructure with future allocations.

The Review praises the sustainable forest management practices that have allowed Poland to increase timber harvesting while not compromising its natural capital and conserving forest biodiversity. However, to achieve its ambitious commitment under the EU’s Natura 2000 protected areas network, Poland will have to better align policies affecting land use.

The Review welcomes a major waste management reform in 2013 that offered a better basis for providing household waste services and increasing the separate collection of recyclable waste. It recommends strengthening municipal-level waste capacity and data collection.

The Review’s 28 recommendations include: adoption of measures to reduce environmental damage from coal use, and shifting investment incentives towards cleaner energy sources and forms of transport.

The report also calls for: a review of green taxes and charges to ensure they properly price environmental damage; tax on diesel at the same rate as petrol and removal of exemptions on coal taxes; making local land use plans obligatory and consistent with nature protection; and introducing mechanisms for monitoring the results of environmental policies.

The post Poland Asked To Reduce Reliance On Fossil Fuels – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

“I’m sorry. If you want to start a new life, you come through the front door, not through the back door.” — Tony Abbott, Australian Prime Minister, May 21, 2015

They are in a tight corner of history, and it is shrinking. The Rohingya Muslims of Myanmar are the persecuted minority within a Buddhist state, though it is feared in such areas as northern Rakhine state that they will, in time, outnumber the Buddhist population. With the discovery in northern Malaysia of 139 shallow graves the Rohingya people have also become the public face of trafficking.

There are the usual suggested horror stories: instances of press ganging individuals and listening to the sweet promises of vicious middlemen offering a chance of passage to another country. Then comes the sea – the dangerous, all-consuming aqueous world that takes lives even as it gives passage. The incentive to escape is hardly surprising, given that some 140 thousand have been internally displaced since the communal riots of 2012. They are denied the freedom to move. They are denied citizenship.

Since Saturday, a search for Bangladeshi and Rohingya migrants seemingly abandoned by traffickers at sea, undertaken by Malaysia and now Indonesia, has proven fruitless. It is said that up to 3,500 may be afloat in perilous waters. Around the same number have already landed in Malaysia and Indonesia proper. Initial refusals to accept them have been modified, subject to the calls that other countries provide assistance in the resettlement phase.

The issue of how those migrants are being processed has proven to be the biggest bone of contention. Cooperation in this endeavour is fine for some as long as the terms can be dictated by certain parties. This has been the Australian response to the problems of how the Rohingya asylum seekers are treated. As to questions on whether they would be resettled in Australia, the response from the ever mature Prime Minister Abbott was “nope, nope, nope”. Quaintly, the prime minister could only envisage “front door” refugees.

The Indonesians have become tetchy over the entire issue. Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, was suitably unimpressed by the line taken in Canberra, one which insists that everybody, bar Australian officials, should deal with the problem. “The cooperation should come from country of origin and county of transit and country of destination.” Indonesian Foreign ministry spokesman Arrmanatha Nasir has similarly reminded Canberra that “countries that are parties to the convention on refugees have a responsibility to ensure they believe in what they sign” (Sydney Morning Herald, May 21).

Other countries agree. Papua New Guinea’s Peter O’Neill has become more vocal about the need for Australia to be involved. “Those of us who are accepting refugees cannot continue doing that forever.” A collective muck in by wealthier states was required. “Countries like Australia and the United States, the UK, and other developed countries like Japan must assist in addressing this crisis.”

As tends to be so typical about the contrivance of fairness in policy, a closer look at it shows various inner contradictions. Fairness is the slogan of the indifferent who masquerade as moral beings. It is also the slogan of the hypocritical.

Prime Minister Abbott has done what his predecessors have, though perhaps more forcefully: argue that the battle against refugees and asylum seekers arriving by boat is essentially one rooted in a conflict against terrorism. They are to be turned away. “We need to bring the same drive, focus and clarity of purpose to countering terrorism that resulted in stopping the boats under Operation Sovereign Borders.”

Apply the logic of military containment and expulsion, in other words, to both, and Australian security is assured. “I think we’ve demonstrated in the way we have stopped the boasts, I think we have demonstrated with our commitment with countering Islamist death cults both here and abroad, that we do take our responsibilities to keep our communities safe very, very seriously indeed.”

That is the same strained logic that was applied in the wake of the death of 1,300 migrants in the Mediterranean coming from Libya. His solution has always been, and it would seem to always be, stopping the boats. It is a sentiment that is winning the sentimentalists over, the bleeding hearts who think that locking up families is at least a better solution than indiscriminate drowning. “As we know now,” argues Derek Rielly, “these wretched boats didn’t stop their perilous journeys until an adult got the reins of government and made a touch decision. And it was tough. Make no mistake. No civilised human being gets any thrill from jailing families.”

Rielly’s reference point here is that of weakness – the clouding weakness of humanity. Be firm, be hard, and be uncompromising. Do not succumb, as fictional Europe does in Jean Raspail’s The Camp of the Saints, to the demands made by that “flotilla of one million refugees” which end up paralysing Europe, the Europe of culture and civilisation. The good heart ends up suiciding.

Such casually dished nonsense, the sort that peppers conversation and discussion on the subject of refugee policy, are the reasons why the carceral solution rides high in Australian approaches. It feeds the argument that, if you get rid of the human cargo, expel them, banish them to someone else’s backyard, that some good is, in fact, being done. It also ignores the obvious point that the boats do not stop, so much as find another route elsewhere. Hence the Rohingya dilemma, with its human cargo that will never settle or be processed in Australia, because Canberra has other ideas about it.

The post Australia’s Response To The Rohingya Asylum Seekers – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

“Democracy under threat”- This is how US Secretary of State described the situation in Maldives.

The movement “Maldivians against Injustice” to protest against the illegal and unjust incarceration of former President Nasheed by the opposition has now converted itself as a “Movement against Tyranny”

The May day rally, the biggest seen in more than a decade with over 20,000 protesters crowded within the small space of Male with their aim to “bring an end to brutality” was met ironically with a brutal crackdown by the Police Forces. There were a few sporadic violent incidents but by and large the protests and demonstrations were peaceful.

Hundreds were arrested, a record high for the country in the last few years and while many were released, over 200 were taken into custody. Those who refused to abide by the instructions of the court not to take part in the rallies in the future were given over fifteen days of imprisonment- an order that has no legal backing. The courts were merrily taking the sides of the brutal government and not going by laws of the country.

Street Protests are continuing on almost every day and another major rally of the type of May rally is being planned for June 12. As expected, the Police force is getting ready for another brutal crackdown.

Not satisfied with imprisoning former President Nasheed under trumped up terrorism charges, President Yameen has brought out on 6th May an anti terrorism bill that would give exclusive authority to declare any group as a terrorist organisation. He is preparing the way to declare the even political parties that are opposed to him and now protesting in the streets as terrorist organisations. He does not have to worry about the judiciary that will give a legal stamp to whatever that he does.

It appears that until he was arrested with a warrant, Nasheed was not aware that he was being arrested under fresh terrorism charges based on the request of the Prosecutor General. The Prosecutor General in Maldives did not act on his own but under orders from above. Nasheed and another prisoner former Defence Minister Mohamed Nazim who is undergoing imprisonment for attempting a coup with a rusted pistol and three rounds of ammunition have been shifted to another island (Asseyeri) closer to Male and a regular building for a “permanent stay” at the notorious Mafusshi jail is being readied.

A team of international lawyers is being assembled to defend Nasheed in the courts. But the administration is said to have denied access of Nasheed to the lawyers. Nasheed himself has refused to file an appeal as he has no faith in the judiciary. He is justified as the Supreme Court just before his conviction changed the rules and gave very little time for those convicted to file appeals!

“Nasheed specific” laws are being passed in parliament and approved by President Yameen. The latest is that those convicted cannot lead the political parties. Nothing can be more arbitrary than this. Nasheed can thus continue to be a member but cannot be the chairman of the MDP! Earlier a revised law stripping Nasheed of presidential privileges was also passed.

There have been world wide protests over the imprisonment of Nasheed. International NGOs, businessmen and environmental activists have called for sanctions against Maldives.

15 Religious scholars of Maldives have pleaded with the President to heed the calls for a dialogue with the opposition.

The Amnesty International after the return of a “fact finding” mission in end April, claimed that there exists a climate of fear in Maldives and that besides a facade of a tourist paradise there is a dark trend in the Maldives where the human rights are concerned.

An initial resolution in the EU parliament to impose a travel ban and freezing of assets diluted for the present to calling on Maldives to take steps to restore confidence in Maldives to restore confidence in Maldives’ commitment to democracy by showing a respect for freedom of expression and assembly was passed on 30 April.

Laila Ali, wife of Nasheed has lodged a petition with the UN requesting for a judgement declaring former President Nasheed’s detention as illegal and arbitrary.

Countries across the world have blasted Maldives for its politicised judiciary and expressed alarm over threat to journalists, human rights defenders in a UN’s periodic review of human rights in Geneva on 6th May.

Imprisonment of Nasheed on terrorism charges have been noted with concern by Norway, Germany, UK, Denmark, US, Canada and Australia.

An interesting blog that caught my attention and perhaps true was about the judiciary which it said is the mother of all evils in Maldives and that democracy died the day the judiciary started to influence a free and fair election. ( See my papers in this site)

President Yameen along with his close confidante the tourism minister Ahmed Adeeb, have now opened another front against the leader of Jumhooree party that is participating in the agitation. Gasim and his villa group has been slapped with a notice for tax default of a whopping 90.4 million dollars and an arrest warrant has also been issued against Gasim for funding the agitation. Thus Yameen is kicking away the ladder that catapulted him to presidency!

We see that President Yameen is spinning too fast. With all the three arms of the country under his control, he has become a dictator to do what he wants similar to a situation that was obtained when his half brother Gayoom was the dictator and President for three decades.

At the same time Yameen is very careful to watch his back and is seen to be cultivating the security forces. On the eve of the May day rally (April 27) while attending the 123rd anniversary of the military, he called on them to defend his government claiming that international pressure is undermining the Maldives’ sovereignty and weakening the rule of law!

And, China is waiting in the wings to get closer to Yameen. On 6th May, the Chinese Ambassador made a statement that the Maldivian Police Service “will always receive assistance of the Chinese government.” For what- to put down peaceful protests as they did in Tien Anmen Square with tanks?

India’s silence on the situation in Maldives is understandable. It is hoping against hope that Yameen would ultimately turn around and restore normalcy in the current volatile situation. But Yameen’s – “ do not care” attitude is not helpful. Nasheed needs to be helped.

The post Maldives: Democracy Under Threat – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By R. Upadhyay

On May 7, the Jamiat-Ulema-e-Hind General Secretary Malana Memood Madni urged Darool Uloom Deoband “to issue a fatwa on how to defend Islam in the wake of increasing campaigns against minorities during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rule”.

Two days later by coincidence or otherwise at the G. K. Reddy Memorial Award function to confer this award to late Vinod Mehta, Congress President Sonia Gandhi in an apparent reference to the present NDA Government said, “Minorities are feeling increasingly insecure”.

Although, the Muslims of the Indian sub-continent “created Pakistan as a successor state to the Mogul Empire” “out of fear of the future and pride in the past”, some of those who stayed back in India after partition continued to suffer from the same fear and pride of the future and past and are still not satisfied with the constitutional space provided to them in the name of minority. Unfortunately, a coalition of the ‘secular’, caste-ist and the Muslim priestly class instead of creating a sense of nationalism in the minority are creating the same fear of the future and pride in the past amongst the minority community. This is not out of sympathy for the community, but to continue to use them as an “electoral bank.”

M.J.Akbar in his book ‘Tinderbox –The Past and Future of Pakistan, rightly asked a question – “Was Islam so weak that it could not survive as a minority presence? The question is still valid for Maulana Mehmood Madni who urged Deoband to issue a fatwa as mentioned earlier.

It seems the Maulana as a loyal ideological follower of Shah Waliullah still believes that the Muslim minority will continue to remain insecure without the political power in the hands of his co-religionists.

Despite the provision of equal rights with extra preferential treatment to the religious minorities in Independent India, the repeated allegation of Muslim leaders that they are feeling insecure in nothing but a political ploy. In fact, for the first time t in the last elections the twenty percent of Muslim electoral group that used to be swinging between the Congress and Communists at national level and casteist parties at regional level for bargaining communal demands in lieu of votes – failed in their tactical calculation.

After losing their electoral block voting, they seem to have woken up to the insecurity of the minority community. In this some of the statements of the majority community from the ruling party have not been helpful either.

Supporting the concerted hard-line Islamist propaganda to create a communal discord on alleged discrimination against the minority, ‘secularists’ in India have nationalised the concept of minoritism at the cost of transforming the Muslim society into a communal minority which is something unbelievable in a secular democracy. Nationalisation of minoritism is not only an insult to secular and majoritarian democracy but also an organised attack on religious majority either directly or indirectly. Their organised cry on the issues like Ghar Wapasi and love jihad which is creating a negative image of India is a point to support it.

Contrary to the basic principle of democracy that is the right to equality irrespective of religion, the religious majority had always been ignored at the cost of minority rights. Successive political leadership of India after Independence avoided enforcement of affirmative action for Muslims in the sphere of Uniform Civil Code while prohibiting the rights of religious autonomy to the religious majority group. This has threatened the principle of national integration.

Ironically, even after the end of the Islamic and British rule, the Muslim leaders as a determined, assertive, and astute religious minority steadily moved away from the expected vision of one nation and remained fully alive to their long-term religio-political objectives of reviving the lost Muslim rule. However, the clueless and short-sighted post-colonial political class ignored this historical tyranny, incorporated special privileges to the religious minority in Indian Constitution and even supported the ever-escalating imaginary grievances of the Muslims without any corresponding demand from them. Even our civil society remained silent on this violation of the human right of religious majority.

Surprisingly, despite the observation of some of the tallest leaders of our freedom movement like Nehru, Sardar Patel, Maulana Azad, Tajamul Hussain and many other Congress leaders against the issue of minoritism during Constituent Assembly debate, the religious minorities were constitutionally protected as a privileged socio-religious group in a secular and democratic India. The community had however overlooked the saner expectation of the Constitution makers that minorities will gradually become an integral part of national mainstream.

One fails to understand that how the present chief of the Congress party could join the chorus that Minority are feeling insecure knowingly that some of the Muslim leaders are using the constitutional provisions to the religious minorities as a lethal weapon to fight for their politico-religious objective ? Why should our political class succumb to the politics of “minoritism”?

Fortunately, the religious majority never demanded any preferential treatment because of their majority status but such treatment to the Muslims in the name of minority through an ever-expanding list of Government Programmes and Institutions like National Integration Council (1962) under Ministry of Home Affairs, the National Commission for Minorities set up under the Commission of Minorities Act, 1992, Union Ministry of Minority Affairs (established 2006), Haj Committee under Ministry of External Affairs and various other preference and privileges are only widening the chasm and mistrust between the two communities.

It is surprising that despite the above mentioned programmes of the government if the religious minorities are feeling insecure it is better that they should accept the advice of Tajamul Hussain in Constituent Assembly debate to “remove the term minority from your dictionary. There is no minority in India …. .”. “We want to merge in the nation”. (Constituent Assembly Debate VOL. 8, Page 333).

The former Chief Justice of India, M.H.Beg who as head of the Minorities Commission in his very first report forcefully recommended that “the Minorities Commission should be replaced with or merged into a National Integration-cum-Human Rights Commission”. In fact continuance of National and State Minority Commissions have only generated feelings of multi-nationalism in various sections of people of this country.

The BJP in its manifesto for 1998 General Election had promised to wind up the National Minority Commission and integrate it with the National Human Rights Commission. However, even though BJP formed a coalition government, it failed to fulfil its promise as it was not included in the Common Minimum Programme of the NDA. But now the party is having majority, it is high time that this divisive Commission is winded up. Since all the citizens of the country are constitutionally equal there should not be any discrimination between Minority and Majority. In a multi-religion, multi-ethnic and caste-ridden Indian society the concept of minoritism has generated the feeling of multi-nationalism which is against the concept of integrated nationalism.

In view of the growing threat of radical Islam all over the world the political statements of ‘secularists’ on minoritism just to garner Muslim votes is only widening the communal divide in the country.

The need of the hour is to understand that in a county of over 1.25 billion population, people are aware of such politics which is based on the historical communal confrontation between the two religious majority communities. But instead of saving the country from the fall out of historical wrongs, the pretenders of secularism often create confusion among the traditionally tolerant, secular and non-violent people only for their self-seeking political interests. They forget that such statements are only justifying that religious minorities in India are under the fear of dominant religious majority which is not correct.

The political parties should stop indulging in encouraging a divide between the majority and the minority communities.

The post Nationalisation Of Religious Minoritism: An Affront To Secular Democratic Principles Of The Country – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Niger’s parliament approved a 3-month extension of the state of emergency in the southern Diffa province after attacks and violence by the Nigerian Boko Haram group.

The measure gives the military exceptional powers to stop suspected members of the Islamist group without a warrant. Niamey authorities are in fact holding 563 suspected Boko Haram militants arrested in the Diffa province. Among them are also some village heads of the Lake Chad islands, who denounced their illegal detention.

The Diffa province borders with north-eastern Nigeria, a Boko Haram stronghold. An attack by the Islamist group on a Lake Chad Island under Niger sovereignty left 46 dead.

The post Niger: Parliament Extends State Of Emergency As Result Of Boko Haram appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Historically, Englewood and Garfield Park are two of the poorest neighborhoods in Chicago. Yet, between 2002 and 2005, these neighborhoods experienced remarkable growth in terms of home purchases, but it wasn’t because these neighborhoods had suddenly turned a corner.

Instead, these two areas exemplified a broader pattern of rampant mortgage fraud that was seen in areas across the United States that had historically low credit scores and incomes coupled with high rates of poverty and unemployment, according to a report from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and at the University of Chicago.

The researchers reveal that, in low-income zip codes, IRS-reported incomes and earnings reported on mortgages in fact differed wildly from 2002 to 2005. The researchers place the blame for falsified earnings listed on mortgage applications — which the researchers call “buyer income overstatement” — on brokers producing mortgages intended to be sold as securities. They found that this type of mortgage fraud spiked in low-income zip codes from 2002 to 2005, and originated from private-label issuers, not government-sponsored enterprises.

The research shows that fraud — not economic prosperity — was the reason people in low-income areas received a greater number of mortgages in the early 2000s, said paper coauthor Atif Mian, the Theodore A. Wells ’29 Professor of Economics and Public Affairs and director of the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance. At the time, credulous media and officials chalked up spikes in home purchases and approved mortgages in impoverished areas to gentrification, he said.

“It is already well known that mortgage fraud exploded in zip codes with low incomes, low credit scores and high poverty rates,” Mian said. “But our new paper shows that these areas did not see any economic growth in the years following the housing boom. In fact, they did significantly worse both economically and financially.”

The working paper, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, builds upon earlier research that showed how subprime zip codes were seeing high-income individuals buying homes in traditionally poor, low-credit-score neighborhoods. This type of gentrification could explain the difference between IRS-reported income and incomes reported on mortgage applications. But Mian and coauthor Amir Sufi, professor of finance at the University of Chicago, find otherwise.

Comparing their own data with independent studies of mortgage fraud, the researchers find these zip codes were significantly more likely to be fraudulently reported as being for an owner-occupied property or had deliberately omitted information on second liens. The 18 zip codes most plagued by mortgage fraud as listed by InterThinx, a subsidiary of First American Financial Corporation, reported income on mortgage applications in these regions was 90 percent higher than average IRS income.

Looking at individual level data on credit scores, the researchers also find that people moving into these zip codes do not have better credit scores than residents already living there, again ruling out gentrification. And the news gets worse; default rates in these zip codes skyrocketed from 2005 to 2007. Even in the years that followed that, these regions continued to suffer, seeing negative income and financial outcomes.

“These areas were actually getting poorer in both real and relative terms, while mortgage credit was expanding rapidly,” said Mian. “Recall, these zip codes already had higher poverty and unemployment rates in 2000 and they increased further through 2010. These patterns are inconsistent with gentrification.”

While the new paper reveals some keen insights regarding the housing bubble, Atif and Sufi said more research needs to be done to understand exactly how this type of fraud was committed.

“I think one of the most interesting questions raised by our analysis is: why did mortgage fraud explode from 2002 to 2005? One potential answer is that the outward shift in mortgage credit supply itself was responsible for higher fraud. Press reports show that fraudulent overstatement was perpetrated by brokers originating mortgages designed to be sold into the non-agency securitization market. We look forward to more research addressing this question.”

The post How Income Fraud Made US Housing Bubble Worse appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Six football officials have been arrested over corruption charges at a governing body FIFA meeting at a hotel in Zurich, Switzerland, BBC reports.

The suspects, who are said to include a FIFA vice-president, have been detained pending extradition to the US.

It involves alleged bribes worth about $100m (£65m; €92m) over two decades.

FIFA members are gathering in Zurich for their annual meeting on Friday, where incumbent President Sepp Blatter is seeking a fifth term.

However, Mr Blatter is not understood to be one of those arrested.

Prince Ali Bin Al-Hussein of Jordan – Mr Blatter’s rival for the FIFA presidency – described the development as “a sad day for football”, but withheld from commenting further.

FIFA’s headquarters in Zurich has also been raided by police, with documents seized, Swiss prosecutors say.

Jeffrey Webb – head of the confederation for North and Central America and the Caribbean – has been named as one of the officials arrested, says the BBC’s Richard Conway, who is at the Zurich hotel.

Other FIFA officials seen by the BBC escorted by police from the hotel include: Costa Rica’s national football chief Eduardo Li, who was due to join FIFA’s executive committee on Friday; Uruguay’s Eugenio Figueredo, president of South American football governing body Conmebol; Brazil’s Jose Maria Marin, a member of FIFA’s club committee. Police were seen carrying his suitcase and some of his possessions in plastic bags.

FIFA was seeking to clarify the situation, a spokesman said.

The post FIFA Officials Arrested On Corruption Charges appeared first on Eurasia Review.

This is a difficult time for football, the fans and for FIFA as an organisation. We understand the disappointment that many have expressed and I know that the events of today will impact the way in which many people view us.

As unfortunate as these events are, it should be clear that we welcome the actions and the investigations by the US and Swiss authorities and believe that it will help to reinforce measures that FIFA has already taken to root out any wrongdoing in football.

While there will be many who are frustrated with the pace of change, I would like to stress the actions that we have taken and will continue to take. In fact, today’s action by the Swiss Office of the Attorney General was set in motion when we submitted a dossier to the Swiss authorities late last year.

Let me be clear: such misconduct has no place in football and we will ensure that those who engage in it are put out of the game. Following the events of today, the independent Ethics Committee – which is in the midst of its own proceedings regarding the awarding of the 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups – took swift action to provisionally ban those individuals named by the authorities from any football-related activities at the national and international level. These actions are on top of similar steps that FIFA has taken over the past year to exclude any members who violate our own Code of Ethics.

We will continue to work with the relevant authorities and we will work vigorously within FIFA in order to root out any misconduct, to regain your trust and ensure that football worldwide is free from wrongdoing.

The post FIFA President Blatter: ‘This Is A Difficult Time For Football’ – Statement appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Matthew Allen

Switzerland has dawdled too long in cleaning up FIFA, world football’s tainted governing body. That’s the view of Swiss anti-corruption lawyer Mark Pieth and campaigning politician Roland Büchel, who both welcome the intervention by the United States.

“We asked FIFA to clean up its act several years ago, while it still had time to do so,” Büchel told swissinfo.ch. “It failed to do so and now it seems that the US is doing that for FIFA and for Switzerland. It is a pity because now the whole world is looking at Switzerland.”

The parliamentarian from the conservative right Swiss People’s Party has fought to clean up Zurich-based FIFA for years, fearing that the litany of scandals surrounding it is portraying its host country in a poor light.

Wednesday’s police raid on the prestigious Baur au Lac hotel in Zurich, during which seven top FIFA officials were carted away for questioning and possible extradition to the US, is the first tangible evidence that individuals may actually be brought to justice for alleged corruption.

“It shows once again that when the US wants results, it gets them,” Büchel said.

Intervention necessary

Mark Pieth, a professor of law at the University of Basel, also believes that the US involvement in the case is crucial. Pieth has a long history of tracking down fraud as a one time member of the independent inquiry into the soured Iraq oil for food programme and the Financial Action Task Force on money laundering.

Pieth also has knowledge of FIFA’s workings, having been commissioned by the sporting organisation in 2011 to overhaul its oversight structures in the light of continuous corruption allegations.

“A lot of the allegations are old, but the process has now been transformed from the private justice of a sporting association into the arena of public justice. We have new players on the scene with states getting active – finally, one could say,” Pieth told swissinfo.ch.

“This has parallels with the reform of the United Nations after the oil for food scandal in Iraq and also the reform of the Vatican Bank. In my opinion, neither would have cleaned up its act without national jurisdictions getting active and applying pressure.”

But Pieth adds the caveat that the US might struggle to prove that they have proper legal jurisdiction to investigate and punish acts of corruption.

“The US has a very liberal attitude towards assuming jurisdiction, but in this case I want to see exactly on what grounds they are basing this assumption,” he said. “I have a feeling that their jurisdiction might be more limited than they assume.”

In the meantime, the Swiss Federal Prosecutor’s Office has launched its own investigation against an unspecified number of “persons unknown”, surrounding allegations of corruption during the bidding process for the 2018 and 2022 World Cup tournaments, which went to Russia and Qatar respectively.

In this case, the investigation was prompted by FIFA itself, which issued a complaint on November 18 last year. The Federal Prosecutor’s Office is therefore treating FIFA as the “injured party”, while coordinating with the US investigation to secure suspects and evidence.

“With this procedure, the [Federal Prosecutor’s Office] is contributing to the struggle against corrupt behaviour and money laundering,” a statement read.

For his part, FIFA’s Swiss president Sepp Blatter released a statement on Wednesday evening in which he welcomed the actions and the investigations by the US and Swiss authorities and stressed that “such misconduct has no place in football and we will ensure that those who engage in it are put out of the game”.

Both Büchel and Pieth are unconvinced that the Swiss authorities have gone far enough or fast enough to nip the issue in the bud. Pieth compares Switzerland’s soft touch regulatory approach to sporting organisations to acting like a “pirate’s haven”.

In 2008, a Zug court found that several FIFA executives, including former FIFA president João Havelange, had taken millions of dollars in bribes from the now defunct ISMM-ISL sports marketing company. The defendants walked free after agreeing to pay the money back – a deal that also saw the court protect their anonymity.

Four years later the gagging order was lifted on appeal by several media outlets.

Toughening up

In recent months Switzerland has acted to protect its reputation from further damage by enacting tougher legislation governing non-corporate entities.

In December, parliament passed an act that labelled powerful executives at such bodies “politically exposed persons” (PEPs). This gives the Swiss authorities access to bank accounts of these individuals.

Next week parliament will debate new anti-corruption measures that would further enshrine bribery as a criminal offence. At present, the authorities can act against bribery only if there is an official complaint.

The new law, which has some political opposition, would enable prosecutors to investigate rumours without the need for a complaint.

The post US Intervention Could Clean-Up FIFA appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Erica Illingworth*

When people talk of Mexico, they avoidably focus on the recent political corruption scandals, the case of the 43 missing students or the violent drug cartels that have swept the country and affected the daily lives of the civilians. But Mexico has more to offer, particularly in the film industry. The once prominent Mexican film industry is suffering and is in desperate need for change and improvement. Mexican cinema needs to receive more subsidies from the government, incentives for Mexican filmmakers to stay in Mexico to make films, as well as more international support to promote Mexican film.

Mexico has been cast in a spotlight with the release of film hits and Oscar wins by Mexican directors Alfonso Cuarón and Alejandro González Iñárritu. Also, the latest James Bond film, ‘Spectre,’ is going to open with an elaborate Day of the Dead scene, filmed in Mexico which will showcase one of the country’s oldest traditions in all its beauty. With this, it is clear that there is more to Mexico than violence, corruption and scandal, and the country should use this opportunity to push for more subsidies and incentives to revive its film industry.

The Mexican film industry has declined since the “Golden Age” of Mexican cinema ended in 1954. The film industry’s decline is in part due to a lack of subsidies and incentives from the Mexican government to make films, as well as the high competitiveness in the movie industry from Hollywood and Europe that leaves little room for smaller independent films. The Mexican film industry has suffered, but the recent spotlight cast on the country can revitalize it. The world is cognizant of what is coming out of Mexico, in terms of films, directors and actors (and actresses) alike.

Spotlight on Mexico

Why is there a spotlight on Mexico’s film industry? The answer to that lies in that back-to-back Academy Award wins for Best Director by two of Mexico’s greatest filmmakers. Alfonso Cuarón won the 2014 Academy Award for Best Director for his work on ‘Gravity.’[i] His work has also included hits like ‘Y Tu MamáTabien’ (2001), ‘Children of Men’ (2006), and ‘Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban’ (2004).[ii] This accomplished director has won two Academy Awards, a Golden Globe and two BAFTA Awards.[iii] With these films and subsequent awards on his resume, Alfonso Cuarón has undoubtedly made a name for himself in the international film industry.

Moreover, Mexican-born director Alejandro González Iñárritu won Best Director for his work in ‘Birdman: Or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance).’ The film won a total of four Academy Awards in 2015, including Best Motion Picture of the Year and Best Writing, – such distinctions can be traced back to Iñárritu himself.[iv] Like Cuarón, Iñárritu was born in Mexico City, Mexico, and has garnered a number of hits on the international stage of the film industry as well. His filmography includes ‘Amores Perros’ (2000), ’21 Grams’ (2003), ‘Babel’ (2006), and ‘Biutiful’ (2010), all of which has gained critical acclaim.[v] He has a total of three Oscars, a Golden Globe and a BAFTA Award.[vi] Along with Cuarón, they are the only Mexican winners of the Academy Award for Best Director.

The third reason why Mexico is gaining a greater spotlight regarding its movie industry is the upcoming, highly anticipated Bond film ‘Spectre.’ This film production shut down Mexico City for the shoot of the opening sequence, and it is reportedly going to be the biggest opening in the franchise’s history. The opening scenes for this film are set in Mexico City during the national Day of the Dead festival.[vii] The production also consists of about 400 UK crew members and a whopping 1000 Mexican crew members. The film is also going to feature, for the first-time ever, a Mexican Bond girl. The mysterious character, Estrella, is played by model-turned actress Stephanie Sigman. Sigman gained notoriety for her role as the title character in the critically acclaimed film ‘Miss Bala,’ which was Mexico’s submission for the foreign-language category for the 84th Academy Awards.[viii]

Nevertheless, the filming of ‘Spectre’ in Mexico City has not been without controversy. Not only did the Mexican government ask for the filmmakers to choose a known-Mexican actress to be a Bond girl, but also asked to have various changes to the script. According to Fox News Latino, “The script for the new James Bond thriller ‘Spectre’ was modified to portray Mexico in a favorable way on the silver screen to audiences worldwide in exchange for $14 million worth of incentives offered by Mexican government officials.”[ix] Producers also agreed to the stipulation that the film’s villain Sciarra, originally scripted as a Mexican governor who was originally the target of an assassination, would be replaced as an international leader.[x] It is clear that an image change is important for Mexico, and this film has given them the opportunity to do so.

The Mexican government is dictating what is filmed of the country in ‘Spectre,’ and for it, Mexico is offering huge tax incentives for the Hollywood production companies, and with an already reported budget of about $300 million USD, Sony and MGM are giving into Mexico’s demands.[xi] This may be seen as a bribe, but Mexico will come out as the winner. Because of the upcoming opening scene, Mexico will be shown in a better light despite the violence and corruption associated with the country. Films are very influential, and the Bond franchise has millions of fans across the world who will see the film and without a doubt be influenced by the portrayal of Mexico City’s beauty.

However, there are a few questions to be asked, including: why did the industry and the Mexican government resort to tax incentives to change the country’s image? Secondly, why does the Mexican government prefer to give such a significant tax incentive for a Hollywood film, and not for its own filmmakers at home? The examples above show that the opportunity is now to push for change in the Mexican film industry; and the answers to the questions asked lie in the long history of the country’s cinema and politics, since the end of the Golden Age of Mexican cinema, to the current domination of Hollywood of the film industry, to the violence and corruption that is seen throughout Mexico as the “War on Drugs” continues, and finally money. Hollywood is known for not being open to independent and low-budget films with plots that may not bring in large numbers of movie goers.

The End of the Golden Age of Mexican Cinema

The Golden Age of Mexican cinema lasted from the late 1930s to the late 1950s, where beloved stars like Pedro Infante, María Félix, Katy Jurado, and Arturo de Cordova graced the silver screen. This time also allowed the renowned skills of film production from directors like Fernando de Fuentes and Emilio Fernández.[xii] During this time, studios were producing 100 feature films a year, and the film industry was one of the largest in the country. Film production in Mexico today has yet to match that of the Golden Age. Hollywood’s comeback after World War II, along with the rise of powerful unions and decreasing governmental support; has caused the Mexican film industry to falter.[xiii]

However, Mexico’s film industry is currently in an ideal position to make a strong comeback as there are many great Mexican directors and actors emerging on the international stage – i.e. Iñárritu and Cuarón. There is also the acclaimed director Guillermo del Toro who continues to bring hit after hit to the big screen, including ‘Hellboy’ (2004) and ‘Pan’s Labyrinth’ (2006).

In the past decade, there have been Mexican hits that have brought in a lot of revenue for the industry. In 2012, revenue for the Mexican film industry reached over $146 million USD, still minute to what the US generated, but it is clear that interest is returning.[xiv] In 2012, internationally there were 316 films released, 65 of these films were Mexican and 28 of those Mexican films had no screenings in theatres, meaning that only 4.3% of Mexican films were shown in theatres.[xv] Despite this, there are many Mexican films that are breaking out on the international stage and have amassed considerable fortunes. Films like ‘No eres tú, soy yo’ (2010), directed by Alejandro Springall and ‘Nosotros los Nobles’ (2013), by Gary Alazraki, brought around $8 million USD and $21 million USD, respectively. Another film that gained international attention was ‘La Misma Luna’ (2008), directed by Patricia Riggen, which brought in over $6 million USD and many awards, including an American Latino Media Arts (ALMA) Award.[xvi] This award was created as a strategy to promote Latinos in the entertainment industry, and the name ‘ALMA’ represents the determined spirit of the Latino community and reflects both the spirit and scope of the awards program.[xvii] The Mexican film industry is bringing in revenue, but in comparison to Hollywood, the industry is nowhere close to where it needs to be in order to be a profitable industry.

Why is the Mexican Film Industry Suffering?

As mentioned above, there has been a surge in interest and profits in Mexican cinema, but there is still not enough support for the industry, particularly by the government. The Mexican government does not provide enough tax incentives for local filmmakers, which causes them to leave the country. In the end, Mexico loses out. In 2009, the Mexican government only provided $73.3 million USD in grants and tax breaks to Mexican producers, which had to be spread thin to accommodate the 70 films made that were that year.[xviii]

Marina Stavenhagen, a former director of the Mexican Film Institute (Imcine), a company that issues grants, stated that only a tenth of Mexican feature films break even. In 2009, only one film took more than $4 million USD at the box office.[xix] With that information, one could see why production companies are hesitant to invest in films. Mexican film-makers have only 2 million USD to work with most of the time, as compared to Hollywood blockbusters like ‘Spectre,’ mentioned above, which has already blown past its $300 million USD budget, or the recent hit ‘Furious 7,’ which had an estimated budget of $190 million USD.[xx] The constant challenge for smaller budget Mexican films is to attract the attention of moviegoers and gain screen time.

The reported amount of $73.3 million USD in subsidies for Mexican productions, comes nowhere near the amount the US government provides to Hollywood. In 2010, it was reported that about $1.5 billion USD was given in subsidies for movie makers.[xxi] This allows for the extravagant productions like the ‘Harry Potter’ series, and the ‘Lord of the Rings’ trilogy (just to name a few) to be made. With these films’ gripping visual effects, millions of people are waiting in line to see them, which allows these films to bring in a profit for the producers.

This leaves little screen time for low-budget Mexican films to be shown. For a country that has over 4000 movie screens, and the fifth-highest cinema attendance, Mexican filmmakers are still struggling to screen their films in Mexico.[xxii] Many of these multiplexes have opted out on showing independent films, and stick with the films that are sure to bring in the most ticket-buyers. Alejandro Ramírez, the head of Cinépolis, a theatre chain that accounts for almost half of Mexico’s screens, stated that he does show Mexican films and tries to give first-time Mexican directors at least a two-week run.[xxiii] However, with at least a half a dozen new releases each week, many of them produced by Hollywood, distributors like Cinépolis are less likely to risk losing attendance by showing Mexican films. For example, in the first eight months of 2010, American films accounted for 95 percent of ticket sales in Mexico, despite making up only 60 percent of the releases.[xxiv] Since most of the profits come from ticket sales, it is no wonder that most theatres opt for the Hollywood blockbusters rather than lower budget Mexican films.

Mexican Films at the Box Office

Due to a small budget, Mexican films are outcompeted at the box office, which makes these films more difficult to see. For this reason, movie makers are often forced out of Mexico and go elsewhere to make their films. Ironically, the three biggest Mexican directors today, Cuarón, Iñárritu and Del Toro, all left Mexico after struggling to finance their films.[xxv] Cuarón’s film ‘Gravity’ was backed by Warner Bros. Pictures and had a budget of about $100 million USD, whereas films back in Mexico receive a fraction of that budget.[xxvi] These directors have been successful at the box office, and are definitely supported by Mexico, however, their best works have been financed by Hollywood.

Since Cuarón, Del Toro and Iñárritu have had repeated international acclaim with their films, a new generation of Mexican filmmakers, like Gael García Bernal, Diego Luna and Gerardo Naranjo, have begun to make their mark in film festivals across the globe. But these filmmakers have struggled to get to the same level of box office success and support from Hollywood. This is mainly due to the budgets allotted to them and the genre of art house they are put into.[xxvii] An art house film is a genre which encompasses films where the content and style are often artistic and experimental. The film is intended to be experimental.[xxviii] Despite the competitive niche, this generation of filmmakers are determined to stay in Mexico to make their films, and be a part of the generation that finds their success at home.

The Process to get Attention for Mexican Films

For Mexican films, distribution is crucial for the film’s success. It is without a doubt that Mexican films and filmmakers win prizes and top honors at various prestigious festivals across the globe, including Cannes, Sundance and Locarno Film Festivals. These awards generate attention for Mexican filmmakers, but Mexican films still struggle to get distribution and exhibition, particularly in the United States.[xxix] This is in part due to the fact that in the US, every foreign film is automatically put into the category of art house cinema, which represents less than one percent of the American box office.[xxx] If that is not competitive enough, this genre is often dominated by European films, which often have higher budgets than Mexican films.

When a film is labeled as an art house film, it will be showcased at fewer theatres and will have fewer time slots, meaning that not a lot of money will come from it (unless, of course, it becomes a hit, which seldom happens). It is a difficult challenge for smaller budget Mexican films to gain international recognition. This difficult path ultimately ends with a nomination at the Academy Awards, but the Best Foreign Language Film category has proven to be stacked with great competition.

Getting nominated for an Academy Award for the Best Foreign Language Film is an extremely difficult process as each country must pick only one of their films to be submitted as their official selection to the Academy. This is a feat in itself, and in 2013, there was a record 71 submissions.[xxxi] After the screening process, a volunteer committee of Academy members then pick six films for the shortlist, and then the executive committee adds three more to that list. From there, a specially selected screening committee in Los Angeles and New York watch all nine films and then pick only five films that would be officially nominated for an Oscar.[xxxii] Many films that make the final cut come from Europe; Mexico has had a few notable nominations over the past decades but no wins.

Opportunities for Glory in Mexican Cinema

The way the international film industry is set-up, getting Mexican films to the silver screen is difficult and these films are often lost under more extravagant, but not necessarily better, blockbusters. Mexican films, despite their small budgets, are well made and receive the acclaim (but not always the Oscar) they deserve.

The back-to-back Oscar wins by two of Mexico’s own, and the highly anticipated opening sequence of the Bond film ‘Spectre,’ has set the stage for Mexico to turn its film industry around, and not only bring prominence back to it, but also change the violent image Mexico is often attributed for. Mexico has worked very hard to make its screen time in ‘Spectre’ notable (it is clear that they have given Sony enough incentive for it). The international film community is now taking notice of Mexico and there have been recent steps to bring films made in the country more available to the masses.

In recent developments, AMC Theatres has teamed up with Movio, an analytics company that breaks down the demographics of moviegoers in an average theatre, to promote smaller budget, indie and foreign films.[xxxiii] Starting in July, AMC will combine the data from its social media following and its loyalty program with Movio Cinema. From this analysis, both companies will push to promote what moviegoers actually want to see. Stephen A. Colanero, AMC chief marketing officer, stated, “Movie lovers want to see great movies, but some of the best movies can get lost in the shuffle. This new partnership gives us the ability [. . .] to connect guests with the information and promotions they are most likely to love.”[xxxiv]

The Mexican Film Institute (Imcine) also plans to use Filmin Latino, a subscription video service to distribute Mexican and Latina American films.[xxxv] This service will provide independent films with limited distribution options, which will give moviegoers the ability to see these films. Filmin Latino director Jorge Sanchez stated that the service’s offerings will be managed by a team of curators in Mexico and Spain, to ensure the quality of the films, as well as to ensure that Mexican films will not be drowned out by blockbusters from Hollywood.[xxxvi]

Additionally, Imcine is continuing to find ways to carve out a larger market share for Mexican films, negotiating with theatre chains like Cinepolis and Cinemex, who together sells about 90 percent of tickets in Mexico, to find ways to attract Mexicans to see Mexican films.[xxxvii] A new focus has been put on Mexican cinema, and the international film industry is doing the right thing to work with the Mexican government and production companies to push these Mexican films to the front stage. It is the new age of Mexican cinema, and this year marks a pivotal point for the film industry in Mexico to become what it once was, and compete with its European and American counterparts.

*Erica Illingworth, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Notes:
[i] CNN Staff, “Oscars 2014: Winners List,” CNN.com, March 3, 2014, http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/02/showbiz/oscars-2014-winners-list/index.html.

[ii] “Alfonso Cuarón: Biography,” IMDb.com, 2015, http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0190859/bio.

[iii] Ibid.

[iv] CNN Staff, “Oscars 2015: The Winners List,” CNN.com, February 23, 2015, http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/22/entertainment/oscars-2015-winners-list-feat/index.html.

[v] Alejandro González Iñárritu: Biography,” IMDb.com, 2015, http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0327944/bio?ref_=nm_ov_bio_sm.

[vi] Ibid.

[vii] Bauer SOA, “Spectre Opening Sequence will be ‘Biggest in Bond History,’” Empire Online, March 30 2015, http://www.empireonline.com/news/story.asp?NID=43845.

[viii] John Hecht, “’Miss Bala’ Crowned Mexico’s Foreign-Language Oscar Submission,” The Hollywood Reporter, September 22, 2011, http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/miss-bala-crowned-mexicos-foreign-239309.

[ix] “Mexico Pays for Script Changes in New James Bond Thriller ‘Spectre,’” Fox News Latino, March 19, 2015, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/entertainment/2015/03/19/mexico-pays-for-script-changes-in-new-james-bond-thriller-spectre/.

[x] Ibid.

[xi] “Did Sony Score $20M from Mexico for ne Bond Film?” CBS News, March 17, 2015, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/mexico-asks-sony-script-changes-james-bond-film-spectre-tax-incentives/.

[xii] “Por Fin: La Epoca de Oro 1936-1959,” Cine Mexico, retrievedApril 6, 2014,http://cinemexicano.mty.itesm.mx.

[xiii] “Mexico’s Film Industry: Acción!” The Economist, November 18, 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/17525912.

[xiv] Lista Destacada, “Las 15 películas mexicanas más taquilleras de la historia,” Forbes.com, julio 19, 2013, http://www.forbes.com.mx/las-15-peliculas-mexicanas-mas-taquilleras-de-la-historia/.

[xv] Ibid.

[xvi] Ibid.

[xvii] “Mission and Vision; The NCLR Alma Awards,” ALMA Awards.com, retrieved May 9, 2015, http://www.almaawards.com/mission/.

[xviii] “Mexico’s Film Industry: Acción!” The Economist, November 18, 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/17525912.

[xix] Ibid.

[xx] Sandy Schaefer, “’Fast & Furious 7’ Budget Swells; More Details on Paul Walker Scenes,” ScreenRant.com, May 2014, http://screenrant.com/fast-furious-7-budget-paul-walker-scenes/.

[xxi] Robert Tannenwald, “State Film Subsidies: Not Much Bang for too Many Bucks,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, December 9, 2010, http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3326.

[xxii]“MPAA Theatrical Statistics: 2008,”The Motion Picture Association of America, Washington, DC, http://www.mpaa.org/researchstatistics.asp.

[xxiii]“Mexico’s Film Industry: Acción!” The Economist, November 18, 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/17525912.

[xxiv] Ibid.

[xxv] Ibid.

[xxvi] Ibid.

[xxvii] Ibid.

[xxviii] “Art House Definition,” Wonderful Cinema, accessed April 29, 2015, http://wonderfulcinema.com/art-house-definition/.

[xxix] Carlos A. Gutiérrez, “Why Does Hollywood Love Mexican Filmmakers but not Mexican Films?” Remezcla.com, February 26, 2015, http://remezcla.com/features/why-does-hollywood-love-mexican-filmmakers-but-not-mexican-films/.

[xxx] Ibid.

[xxxi] Mark Olsen, “The Difficult Path to a Foreign-Language Film Oscar,” Los Angeles Times, January 06, 2013, http://articles.latimes.com/2013/jan/06/entertainment/la-et-mn-foreign-films-oscars-20130106.

[xxxii] Ibid.

[xxxiii] Carolyn Giardina, “AMC Theatres Targets Indie Moviegoers With Movio Deal,” The Hollywood Reporter, May 05, 2015, http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/behind-screen/amc-theatres-targets-indie-moviegoers-793590.

[xxxiv] Ibid.

[xxxv] “Mexico Hopes Filmin Latino will Boost Movie Industry,” Fox News Latino, March 09, 2015, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/entertainment/2015/03/09/mexico-hopes-filmin-latino-will-boost-movie-industry/.

[xxxvi] Ibid.

[xxxvii] John Hopewell, “Sanchez Maps Mexico’s Movie Future,” Variety, February 4, 2013, http://variety.com/2013/film/news/sanchez-maps-mexico-s-movie-future-1118065614/.

The post Cine De México: A New Hope – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

There is no city in this country where black people are safe from the current method of displacement known as gentrification. Washington, DC, once had a majority black population and was known as Chocolate City. Perhaps it is now the Café au Lait city as the black population has fallen below 50%. That dynamic gathers steam in New York and other cities and continues to push people out of their homes, deprive them of needed services and erode their quality of life.

The situation in New York City is illustrative of this phenomenon. According to census data the city’s black population dropped by 5% between 2000 and 2010. Brooklyn alone lost 50,000 black residents during that time while the white population grew by 37,000 people. The impact of money is the explanation for this reversal of fortune. The same sources of capital that took money out of the cities in decades past are now changing course. These market manipulations determine where black people can and cannot live and create a cascade of negative impacts.

East New York was always one of New York’s poorest neighborhoods with a median income of only $32,000. Its majority black population and location in far eastern Brooklyn near the border of Queens had deemed it undesirable. That designation is now forgotten as big money sets its sights on new places to conquer. Now an area once thought to be too far from Manhattan is touted as being a 30 minute commute via public transportation. This formerly sneered upon and forgotten part of town is now “hot” and its residents have been identified as displaceable.

The phrase “prime real estate” can mean anything the market manipulators want it to mean. As the many headed hydra keeps sprouting heads, any place can suddenly be declared “hot” or “hip.” The inhabitants are pushed aside to make way for transplants who may come from the suburbs, another state or even from another country.

Gentrification is inherently racist, and Brooklyn shows the rest of the country how the dirty deeds are done. A recent article in New York Magazine included an interview with Ephraim, a pseudonym for a Brooklyn landlord and developer. He candidly described how black people facing foreclosure give him deeds to their homes or how renters are enticed to move out of rent regulated apartments in exchange for small sums of money.

“If there’s a black tenant in the house—in every building we have, I put in white tenants. They want to know if black people are going to be living there. So sometimes we have ten apartments and everything is white, and then all of the sudden one tenant comes in with one black roommate, and they don’t like it.”

Much has been made about this story but the outrage misses some important points. The emphasis for advocates should not just be that illegal practices should be stopped. The most important thing to remember is that black people have little stake in a system that will always find a way to disadvantage them. There can be no use for tired nostrums about black people making bad choices or not using their paltry “buying power” to better effect. The system is stacked in favor of moneyed interests and white people, no matter how well black people strive to behave in ways they are told will protect them.

The lack of assets means that even when black people own real estate they often do so precariously. Job loss or any other setback can mean financial crisis and foreclosure. That is where Ephraim comes in and gets these distressed home owners to give him their deeds.

Individual effort is no match for the rule of money. Black people who had money to buy and develop properties were prevented from doing so by redlining which prevented mortgages, bank loans and even insurance from being utilized in black neighborhoods across the country. Urban areas had large black populations because white people fled. White people left to get away from black people and capital paved the road to the suburbs. The tide is now turning because there is once again money to be made in the cities. Perhaps in the future the 1% will make different choices and make new determinations about where black people will live.

The nexus of corruption is vast. Real estate developers call the shots and politicians follow. That is how rent regulations in New York were eviscerated beginning in the 1990s. Now a vacant apartment can be decontrolled and no longer subject to regulated pricing if the rent rises above $2,500. A welfare program for developers, known as 421a, provides tax abatements meant to incentivize construction of low and moderate income housing. Instead, a developer recently received a 95% tax abatement on a $100 million condominium in Manhattan.

The demographic change generated by manipulations from the rich mean losses other than housing. Neighborhoods already considered “food deserts” are losing the few supermarkets they have if a developer buys those properties. Even defendants and plaintiffs in court cases pay a price. Juries in Brooklyn now have more white people with higher incomes which means they are more likely to decide in favor of the police or against plaintiffs in civil cases. One attorney explained it this way. “There’s an influx of money, and when everything gets gentrified, these jurors aren’t pro-plaintiff anymore.”

So black Brooklynites have fewer affordable places to live, to buy food or even to get the little bit of justice they once had. Gentrification is a destroyer and just one of the ways black people in this country are kept at the bottom. The fight against it must be fought on many fronts. The racism which gives white people a perceived right to be free of black people must be called out. The laws which give the wealthy advantages over everyone else must end. Politicians have to be called to account. If they aren’t, cities will become theme parks for the upper classes and everyone else will be pushed to the outskirts and to jail, the ultimate form of displacement.

Gentrification is just one of the ways in which capitalism manifests itself and it must be thought of in that way. If it isn’t, black people will be fooled into short sighted thinking and ineffective tactics. We can start with a new adage. As long as money wins, black people will lose.

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