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Hollywood And The Uses Of Disaster – OpEd

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Where there is a natural disaster of epic proportion, Hollywood is bound to be around the corner seeking to lap it up. Salivating stars are propelled to misery, and big black holes become sites of opportunity for incandescent hope.

In January 2010, we saw the Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt publicity machine give over $1 million to Doctors Without Borders for the Haiti appeal. At stages it even seemed that donors were seeking to outdo each other. The biggest wallets were meant to front up with heart and good will, outperforming others in a seedy corporate system of donations. There were the tweet challenges. There were the busy telethons. Call up, donate. Fork out, or be damned.

Actress Alyssa Milano, goodwill ambassador to Unicef, even went so far as to throw down the gauntlet to corporate America, a fascinating mirroring of values. “I cried and then I did the only thing I could do… I wrote a check to the US Fund for Unicef for $50,000.” Writing in the Huffington Post (Mar 18, 2010), Milano would speak of her work for Unicef as a series of tourist disaster gigs, a travel log of misery jottings. “I travelled to Angola in 2004, only two years after the peace treaty was signed ending a 27 year civil war. In 2005, I went to India for the 6-month anniversary of the tsunami.” Be on the scene; catch the gloom.

The effect of such disaster anticipation is cinematic – preparatory efforts are made to ready her for the jump into a land of mayhem and natural cruelties. Then come the usual symptoms of middleclass, or at the very least, actor’s guilt. “Sure, I had seen pictures from both places prior to my trips. I watched videos and tried to prepare myself.” Of course, she reminds readers, nothing every quite readies you for the authentic.

The latest round of gory sentimentalising from the Hollywood entertainment complex has issued forth from Susan Sarandon, who has been doing the rounds in devastated, earthquake ravaged Nepal. The message? Tourism – and more of it. On CNN, she was featured with the expected human ornament heavy with tackiness – the news network’s anointed hero, Pushpa Basnet.[1] Sarandon insisted that, despite whole areas being levelled, monuments could still be seen, museums visited.

As for donations themselves, Sarandon has been issuing a caveat haloed by her expertise. “It is important that money is sent to places which need it. People are open-hearted but are not diligent enough to see if the stuff they are sending is actually needed.” Not content with that summation, the thespian suggested that she had the local knowledge, an awareness about what exactly was going on the ground. “I have seen some groups here who are actually accomplishing things so I can help with that.”[2]

Sarandon is also a serial visitor to places of acute devastation. One of her themes is that of the “familiar” house built in the aftermath. These are houses of some resistance, designed to resist the effects of the approaching monsoon. “I have seen this in New Orleans and New York, that you want to help people but with their dignity intact and find their personal objects and the things they have lost.” At a certain point, the paternalistic defender arches up to insist on protecting the dignitas of the subject. Blessed are the poor, because they will save us. Much like concerned adults over vulnerable children. “So they still have a sense of place and home. They are not constantly having things thrown at them and they participate.”

While she can hardly be blamed for some depictions of her, it is still striking that the thespian rarely leaves that allocated role in the popular imaginary. Nothing illustrated this convergence between the violence of natural disaster, and the contrivance of Hollywood sympathy, than the Daily Mail’s description of Sarandon’s fashion on site.

First, the necessary remarks about “two powerful earthquakes which killed thousands of people and posed a serious threat to the nation’s tourism industry, which many need to survive.” Then, a mention about the work with the non-profit outfit Live to Love, with the usual overview about her personal life – splitting up with “boyfriend of five years, 38-year-old filmmaker Jonathan Bricklin.”[3] Proportion is everything in such commentary.

Props are needed, and nothing better presents itself for the camera than a disaster being shaped for popular consumption, with its staged faces, its desperation, its calling. Naturally, the actor shows empathy, a cruel suggestion given that acting, by its very nature, deceives one into envisaging such empathy. This is the catharsis of cruelty. “Empathetic: The Tammy star stopped to comfort a citizen of Ramkot Village, who lost her husband and daughter because of the earthquake.” She was also “caring” and keen to visit those who had lost homes. Plato’s suspicion about thespians and their calibre should never be forgotten.

The most interesting feature to the Daily Mail piece, however, lay in the realm of fashion. Priorities had to be noted. “Susan dressed comfortably for the trip, sporting a fitted black T-shirt and loose-fitting patterned black trousers.” When one travels to earthquake devastated areas, one’s wardrobe should be in good working order.

The fashion genie was particularly busy on this day, noting the coupling “with a coordinated white scarf, and finished off the laid-back look with a pair of black boots.” This is the fashion of the disaster zone, the land of suffering and misery, the saint of the wardrobe. Ultimately, it is all acting.

Notes:
[1] http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2015/05/27/nepal-quake-damage-sarandon-intv.cnn

[2] http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/english/hollywood/news/I-will-be-back-in-Nepal-with-my-children-Susan-Sarandon/articleshow/47430149.cms

[3] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3095193/Susan-Sarandon-68-volunteers-earthquake-hit-Nepal-following-painful-split-boyfriend-five-years.html

 

The post Hollywood And The Uses Of Disaster – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Did Israel Buy Its Way Out Of FIFA Suspension? – OpEd

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You’d have to be comatose not to know of the startling revelations of massive corruption in FIFA that amounted to $150-million in the past few years alone.  Eight current or former senior officials were suddenly arrested at dawn at their posh Swiss hotel, where they were preparing for today’s international meeting.  They will be extradited to New York, where the Justice Department will try them for their alleged crimes.  It seems possible, if not likely that Sep Blatter, the FIFA president is in the cross hairs as well, though he isn’t incriminated in the indictments.

Today, he was re-elected to his fifth term in office.  Apparently, FIFA under Blatter has had too much of a good thing and didn’t want to turn off the tap.

Before the arrests, FIFA had been beset by the Palestinian resolution to suspend Israel from the international body because of its violent interference in the affairs of Palestinian soccer.  The violence included arrests and harassment of Palestinian players, refusing to allow them to enter the West Bank to play, and even the brutal shootings of two star players in the feet.  This attack destroyed careers and ruined their chance to ever play professional soccer again.

Earlier today, the Palestinian soccer federation president, Jibril Rajoub, withdrew the motion his group had filed to suspend Israel’s membership.  It’s hard to tell whether he backed down because he no longer had the votes, because he was bought off or because FIFA was bought off.  At any rate, the reaction among Palestinians will be swift and negative.  This is another in a long line of betrayals by the PA of the Palestine national cause.

Israeli media have begun to chronicle the massive propaganda campaign they launched to topple the Palestinian initiative.  Before I recount this, I have to say that Israeli media are willing recruits in the hasbara battle on Israel’s behalf.  So some, much, or all of the following may be discounted as self-serving.  Though it’s nevertheless telling for what it reveals.

For the past month, officials of Israeli national soccer established a war room, dividing up the world into regions with each staff member assigned to a major region, getting to know the soccer officials and present the Israeli pitch.

The international Jewish sports federation, Maccabee, even joined the effort.  A high level official had an especially close relationship with a member of the Vatican Holy See.  Through this channel the Pope was even asked to weigh in on Israel’s behalf by writing a letter to support Israel’s efforts.

One of the Israeli officials was so thankful for the efforts of Michel Platini, head of the European soccer federation, that he said he deserved the Israel Prize, which is awarded to artists and scientists who’ve made great achievements and served the nation.  It’s a cross between the Queen’s Honors List and the Pulitzer Prize.  Platini apparently played a key role in defeating the Palestinian initiative.

One report describes a meeting earlier this week between the Israeli soccer chief, Ofer Eini–a former Histadrut labor chief known for his cozy, corrupt relationships with employers and the government itself–and Sepp Blatter.  After the latter told Eini that he would have to appoint a commission to study the issue of Israeli racism in sport, Eini is reported to have screamed at him:

“You don’t tell me about racism.  Look at the world.  There’s no anti-Semitism?  Six million of us were killed because of it!

The report dramatically recounts Blatter’s stunned reaction and claims he then “understood the message.”

One of the most provocative items in the Israeli report is that among the IEFA officials present in Zurich for the deliberations was its chief financial officer, Dodi Gil.  One wonders why a soccer federation preparing for a vote needs its accountant.  Think of it this way: accountants handle money.  They receive it.  They disburse it.

Holding up red card to Occupation

Why might Israel be disbursing money or favors during the deliberations?  Given the context of massive bribery and fraud outlined above, my question almost answers itself.  If you review the history of Israel’s relationships with countries it needed for various purposes, the blandishments range from cash, trade, weapons.  We can rule out weapons as part of Israel’s FIFA arsenal.  But we can’t rule out much else.

As Israeli-Swiss journalist Shraga Elam wrote on Facebook:

This has the stench of bribery.  You also can’t discount the possibility of bribing Rajoub himself.

Note as well that Israel’s largest financial institution, Bank HaPoalim’s Swiss branch is accused in the U.S. indictment of funneling nearly $15-million (roughly 10% of all the bribery money involved in the entire FIFA corruption scandal) to those FIFA officials on the take.

Eini’s mantra against the Palestinian resolution was that it introduced “politics” into sport, where it has no place.  As if sport was some sort of pure, abstract value divorced from the world.  It’s also laughable to talk about soccer in such terms given the level of corruption that’s been at its heart for years.

In this context, it’s worth remembering Blatter’s lame suggestion during his recent visit to Israel-Palestine that a “peace match” between the two national teams would somehow resolve all outstanding differences.  I swear this guy’s living in Cloud Cuckoo Land.

During the FIFA deliberation, Israel’s talking points were so successful that even Rajoub, in conceding defeat, claimed Palestine’s effort didn’t amount to introducing politics into sport.  Once you get your opponent to use your own talking points, you’ve won.  So Israel once again outplays Palestine.

The Palestinian’s abject failure was crowned by his handshake with Ofer Eini after the resolution failed.  Think of the colonial master who vanquishes the foe and then gets a photo opportunity shaking the hand of the defeated vassal.  Rajoub will come out of this trumpeting his tiny concession: FIFA appointing a committee to “monitor” Israel’s relationship with Palestinian soccer.  That and a few bucks will buy you a cupa Joe somewhere.

To understand how important this vote was for Israel, you must understand the importance of the sport in the nations of the world outside the U.S.  Then you must understand that Israel’s government sees the handwriting on the wall.  It knows what happened to South Africa.  The victories by opponents of apartheid began small.  Then turned into a trickle.  And before the Afrikaaner government knew what was happening, the floodgates were open and apartheid was unsustainable.  Israel sees and fears this above all.  This is why it pulled out all the stops for a victory.

Not that this will work in the long run.  Eventually, justice overwhelms all the stratagems of shrewd clever men who are trying to conceal the truth of their deeds.  Just as BDS will continue to gain ground in this international debate, so will FIFA eventually come around to the position that Israel’s actions are unsupportable.  Then Israel will be suspended just as South Africa faced similar ostracism from international sports.  All this is coming.

Commenter ‘Yeah, Right’ has a point in the comment thread below.  It’s reasonable to see this result as a first skirmish in a long war that will eventually lead to Israel’s suspension or expulsion from FIFA.  Israel will inevitably backtrack on the few concessions it made in this compromise agreement.  It will commit yet more outrages against Palestinian soccer.  When it does, Rajoub can return to FIFA with evidence in hand and demand justice.  He can point to his earlier willingness to compromise as a credit in his favor.  Ultimately, Israel cannot win this game as long as it remains on its current apartheid course.

Just in case you had the mistaken impression that Israel would tread delicately in the aftermath of its victory so that the Palestinians don’t lose face: Israeli minister, Yisrael Katz, posted this on Facebook:

Rajoub failed in his mission of throwing Israel out of FIFA.  Now’s the time to imprison him in the Muqata [like Israel did to Arafat] and let him play Stanga [hackysack] with his pals.

In a similar vein, Sports and Culture Minister Miri Regev, who denounced African refugees as a “cancer” and then apologized to cancer victims, gave her introductory speech in her new job.  She repeated breathlessly the mantra of “pluralism” as if she it was an amulet to ward off the evil spirits of racism and hate of which her new government is accused.  This was the keeper of her speech:

In the name of pluralism, I will not allow anyone to hurt the image of Israel, the soldiers of the IDF, and of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.

Someone needs to remind her that she’s no Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz.  She doesn’t click her heels three times and become Wanda the Good Witch.  In fact, she remains the Wicked Witch who curses Israel’s African refugees and spews venom against Palestinians.  No amount of pluralistic whitewash can remove the stench she’s introduced into Israeli political life.

H/t to Ronnie Barkan.

This article was published by Tikun Olam

The post Did Israel Buy Its Way Out Of FIFA Suspension? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Blatter Seen Being Forced To Resign Before End Of Term

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FIFA president Sepp Blatter will be forced to resign over the corruption scandals swirling around the game’s world governing body, according to English Football Association chairman Greg Dyke.

Blatter was handed another four years in charge on Friday when his challenger, Prince Ali bin Al Hussein of Jordan, withdrew after losing the first round of voting at the FIFA Congress in Zurich.

Dyke said he did not think an emergency meeting would be called by FIFA following the latest allegations to hit the troubled organisation, but he added: “I think what is more likely is there will be further scandals. I think [Blatter] will be then forced to resign.”

“If he had been head of any company, any organisation where there was proper scrutiny, he would have gone.”

On Wednesday, Swiss police arrested seven leading football officials, including FIFA vice-president Jeffrey Webb.

The arrests were connected to a bribery scandal being investigated by US, Swiss and other law enforcement agencies that plunged FIFA into the worst crisis in its 111-year history.

World Cup doubts

Speaking at Wembley Stadium before Saturday’s FA Cup final, Dyke said it was no longer a foregone conclusion that Qatar would host the 2022 World Cup now that Swiss authorities had begun investigations into alleged corruption over how the country secured the right to stage the finals.

“Look at what the Swiss authorities are doing. These are the Swiss authorities, not some small prosecuting authority from a small country – this is the Swiss – they are looking at what level of corruption there was into the awarding of that World Cup. If they come out and say it was corrupt, I don’t think we will see a Qatar World Cup.”

Qatar has always denied any wrongdoing in its bid to stage the biggest single-event sporting competition in the world.

Dyke also said Blatter was being “paranoid” if he thought European football’s governing body UEFA was waging a hate campaign against him.

Blatter, who has been re-elected for a fifth term, averted a civil war with UEFA earlier on Saturday when he said Europe would keep their 13 slots at the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.

UEFA campaigned for Prince Ali, 39, in Friday’s election but the 79-year-old Blatter retained power after a closer than expected winning margin of 133-73 votes in the first round.

Clear jibe

The Swiss said he would “forgive but not forget” those who voted against him, a clear jibe at UEFA, whose president Michel Platini told Blatter he should resign the day before the vote.

Asked if UEFA was actively waging what Blatter described as a “hate” campaign against him, Dyke said: “I think he is being a bit paranoid, but he ought to be because I am not sure he will be there that long.”

“A third of the delegates voted against him which, given the amount of patronage he carries, is a remarkable number and the people who have voted against him are by and large the big nations, mostly in Europe and we’re told the whole of Latin America. These are the two big footballing continents – they don’t want him anymore, we don’t want him anymore and there is nothing he can do to us.”

Dyke also said he did not believe Blatter’s claims that he would now clean up FIFA, after countless scandals during his 17 years as president.

“I don’t think there’s any chance of that happening. He hasn’t cleaned it up in all the time he has been there, why would he clean it up now? There’s been scandal after scandal. There’s not a chance he will clean it up. And I think the reason he got in is because a lot of people know he will not clean it up.”

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Yemen: Cluster Munitions Harm Civilians, Says HRW

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Banned cluster munitions have wounded civilians including a child in attacks in Houthi-controlled territory in northern Yemen. Human Rights Watch visited the Saada governorate in northern Yemen, including one of the sites that had been attacked, on May 15 and 16, 2015.

“The Saudi-led coalition and other warring parties in Yemen need to recognize that using banned cluster munitions is harming civilians,” said Ole Solvang, senior emergencies researcher. “These weapons can’t distinguish military targets from civilians, and their unexploded submunitions threaten civilians, especially children, even long after the fighting.”

In one attack, which wounded three people, at least two of them most likely civilians, the cluster munitions were air-dropped, pointing to the Saudi-led coalition as responsible because it is the only party using aircraft. In a second attack, which wounded four civilians, including a child, Human Rights Watch was not able to conclusively determine responsibility because the cluster munitions were ground-fired, but the attack was on an area that has been under attack by the Saudi-led coalition.

In these and other documented cluster munition attacks, Human Rights Watch has identified the use of three types of cluster munitions in Yemen.

The 10-member coalition and other parties to the Yemeni conflict should make a public commitment never to use cluster munitions, Human Rights Watch said. Coalition supporters, including the United States, should denounce their use.

A local resident and medical staff told Human Rights Watch that four civilians, including a 10-year-old boy, were wounded on April 29 in Baqim, a village 10 kilometers from the Saudi border, when unexploded submunitions of a type previously undocumented in Yemen detonated after local residents picked them up. Based on photographs, Human Rights Watch identified the weapon as a type of ground-fired cluster munition containing “ZP-39” submunitions with a distinctive red ribbon. The ZP-39’s producer and the delivery system used are not publicly known or included in standard international reference materials. Neither Saudi nor Houthi forces are known to possess this type of weapon, but both sides have rocket launchers and tube artillery capable of delivering them.

The discovery of cluster munitions in Houthi-controlled territory that had been attacked by coalition aircraft on previous occasions and the location within range of Saudi artillery suggest that Saudi forces fired the cluster munitions, but further investigation is needed to conclusively determine responsibility, Human Rights Watch said.

Local residents and medical staff told Human Rights Watch that two or three people were wounded when air-dropped submunitions exploded on impact near al-Amar village, about 35 kilometers south of the northern Houthi stronghold of Saada, on April 27. One witness said that one of the wounded was a fighter while others, including medical staff in two hospitals, said that at least two of them were civilians.

The cluster munition used near al-Amar was the CBU-105 Sensor Fuzed Weapon dropped by Saudi-led coalition aircraft. Human Rights Watch had previously documented this attack based on phone interviews and analysis of photographs. During the field investigation, Human Rights Watch examined the remnants of the weapon.

In addition, photographs and information from local residents indicate that Saudi-led coalition aircraft dropped a third type of cluster munition, bombs containing BLU-97 submunitions, in at least two attacks in Saada governorate on May 23. As far as Human Rights Watch has been able to establish, these attacks did not result in any immediate casualties, although unexploded submunitions have the potential to wound and kill if handled by persons in the future. Human Rights Watch documented the use of bombs containing BLU-97 submunitions during Saudi airstrikes on Houthi forces in 2009. Bombs containing BLU-97 submunitions were transferred by the United States to Saudi Arabia as part of arms sales announced in the early 1990s.

Human Rights Watch had also previously documented cluster munition use at al-Shaaf in Saqeen in the western part of Saada governorate on April 17. All documented cluster munition attacks have taken place in Saada governorate, the stronghold of the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah.

Cluster munitions can be fired by rockets, mortars, and artillery or dropped by aircraft. Cluster munitions contain multiple submunitions designed to explode after spreading out over a wide area, often the size of a football field, putting anyone in the area at the time of the attack at risk of death or injury. In addition, many submunitions often do not explode, becoming de facto landmines.

Cluster munitions are prohibited under the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions, which 116 countries have joined. Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the nine other countries such as the United Arab Emirates participating in the Saudi-led coalition are not party to the convention. They should promptly join the treaty and carry out its provisions, Human Rights Watch said.

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Wobbling To The Finish Line: Cuba And The SSTL – OpEd

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By Maria Jose Fabre*

The U.S. State Department announced Friday that Cuba is no longer considered a state sponsor of terrorism (SST). This marks the end of a 45-day long review period, following President Obama’s request for Cuba’s status review in December, when a joint resolution in the House and the Senate could have been passed to block the lifting of economic sanctions associated with SST status. Thankfully, the U.S. Congress did not derail this historical initiative.

Cuba was first added to the list in 1982; and has remained there even after the end of the Cold War. According to the U.S. Government, this has been in part due to allegations of Cuba’s cooperation with, and protection of, Basque separatist forces (ETA) and members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). A recent revision of political attitudes towards the Basque cause, as well as Cuban facilitation of the ongoing peace talks between the FARC and the Colombian government, have overturned these outdated claims.

COHA endorses this decision as it is a step in the right direction, yet reminds Washington and Havana that there is still much to be done. Cuba’s presence on the list has curtailed the country’s accessibility to other financial markets and well as diplomatic maneuverability. Negotiations are currently ongoing for the reestablishment of diplomatic ties between both countries after 54 years. Nevertheless, the overall trade embargo still remains in force.

Open hemispheric relations and adapting to 21st global geopolitics are healthy first steps towards a flourishing international political environment.

* Maria Jose Fabre, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

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Assad’s Latest War Crimes – OpEd

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There are not too many governments in our time that massacres its own people just to stay in power. Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is one such criminal government – outside those of Myanmar and China – that has not learned to alter its hideous means that have served it quite well to hang on to power by hook or crook. To add to its already long list of crimes against the Sunni majority, Bashar al-Assad’s murderous sectarian (Nusayri) regime has dropped barrel bombs on Saturday in the northern city of al-Bab in the province of Aleppo, killing some 72 civilians. These bombs were dropped in the busy market from government helicopters.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which gathers information through a network of activists in Syria, called it one of the worst massacres perpetrated by the government so far this year. Activists report barrel bombs being dropped from government helicopters every day in different parts of the country. They consist of steel drums packed with explosives and shrapnel – and sometimes with chlorine also added, according to many reports. As reported and verified by multiple observers, these barrel bombs are dropped randomly to terrorize ordinary citizens and often cause massive damage and indiscriminate casualties in areas where these are dropped. The UN says in some instances, civilian gatherings have been deliberately targeted by the Assad regime, constituting massacres.

Meanwhile, the so-called Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) is reported to have blown up Tadmur prison near the ancient city of Palmyra – which fell to the militants earlier this month. The prison was for decades a symbol of state oppression in Syria. It had held thousands of political prisoners, who faced years of torture and disease in its cells. Many were executed by the Assad regime.

According to human rights group, SOHR, in the last 15 months (Jan. ’14 – March ’15) alone some 3,124 civilians were killed as a result of barrel bombs. Three schools were hit, 17 hospitals were damaged and 23 mosques were damaged or fully destroyed by such bombings.

In February 2015, Human Rights Watch group accused the Assad regime of dropping barrel bombs on hundreds of sites in 2014, violating a UN Security resolution. The regime also continues to use toxic chemicals – e.g., chlorine and ammonia – against rebel-held territories in the north killing civilians.

As I have noted earlier, had the UNSC and the powerful western states were serious about toppling the Assad regime, they could have provided the necessary material support to the rebels shortening his rein in power. Instead, they found every possible excuse not to do so, which only let the rebel movement to be hijacked by more radical elements, e.g., the ISIS. And then, as it became quite evident, the western interest lay in defeating or weakening the ISIS, which in turn has meant strengthening the grip of the murderous Assad regime. As of March of this year, some 1093 and 1431 air strikes were directed against the ISIS positions inside Syria, and Iraq. “The disappointment caused by the West’s inaction created a fertile recruiting ground for extremists, who told those who had lost their loved ones that they were their only hope,” says a civil society activist when interviewed by the BBC.

Further complicating the issue, the regional powers are not sitting idle either. Iranian government and the Hijbullah of Lebanon, regrettably, have joined on the side of the Assad regime, while most Arab countries in the region are opposed to it.

Thus, a popular civil unrest and revolution has now been transformed into a sectarian fight where the criminal Assad regime sees it as a life or death test for its minority but all-powerful Nusayri sect.

In the midst of this chaos, it is the ordinary civilians who are paying the toll. Caught in the middle, they are getting killed like cattle brought to the slaughter house! By March of this year, more than 220,000 Syrians have lost their lives in four years of armed conflict, which began with anti-government protests before escalating into a full-scale civil war. More than 11 million others – almost half the total population of Syria – have been forced out from their homes. Overall, an estimated 12.2 million are in need of humanitarian assistance inside Syria, including 5.6 million children, the UN says. A report published by the UN in March 2015 estimated the total economic loss since the start of the conflict was $202bn and that four in every five Syrians were now living in poverty – 30% of them in abject poverty. Syria’s education, health and social welfare systems are also in a state of collapse.

More than a year ago, I got a distressing call from an old Syrian friend of mine who told me how more than a dozen members of his immediate family were killed by the Assad regime. He was naturally very sad and went back home to find out the conditions of his relatives. He was originally from Aleppo – the very place which has been barrel bombed lately by the criminal Assad regime. I don’t know whether he or any of his family members are alive today. I have not heard from him ever since. I could only pray and hope that he and his family members are okay.

The criminal regime of Bashar al-Assad needs to be brought down to save the Syrian people from the wretched crisis they face today. The UNSC can facilitate that outcome by stopping Assad’s airplanes and helicopters from flying. But will it do such or let the massacre of ordinary Syrians to continue?

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Muslim Woman Claims United Airlines Refused Can Of Coke So She Wouldn’t Weaponize It

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United Airlines is facing a customer backlash after discriminating against a Muslim passenger. Tahera Ahmad was on an internal US flight when she was refused an unopened can of soda. The flight attendant believed she would use it as a weapon.

Ahmad, a Muslim chaplain from Northwestern University, was traveling from Chicago to Washington, DC, for a conference aimed at promoting dialogue between Israeli and Palestinian youth.

During the flight, she asked the flight attendant if she could have a can of diet coke. However, the 31 year-old’s request wasn’t granted. The attendant told her: “Well I’m sorry I just can’t give you an unopened can so no diet coke for you,” Ahmed wrote on her Facebook page.

Moments later, the passenger sitting next to her was given an unopened can of beer. This prompted Ahmad to ask the flight attendant why she hadn’t been given an unopened can of diet coke.

“We are unauthorized to give unopened cans to people because they may use it as a weapon on the plane,” the attendant is reported by Ahmad to have said.

An astounded Ahmad tried to ask her fellow passengers to support her claim, but unfortunately she only received more abuse.

A man sitting in the opposite aisle yelled at her saying; “you Muslim, you need to shut the F** up.”

The 31 year-old responded by saying, “What?!”

The man apparently leaned over, looked her in the eye and said: “Yes you know you would use it as a weapon, so shut the f**k up.”

Fighting back tears so as to not cause a scene, Ahmad said she was shocked no one came to her defense, and that other people just shook their heads in dismay.

Ahmad, who says she has been a victim of Islamophobia on previous occasions, told the Chicago Sun-Times that the flight attendant’s behavior was particularly patronizing because she was “publically targeted as a threat to people.”

“That is a very horrible feeling,” said Ahmad, who later added the flight attendant in question did apologize to her.

“The flight attendant also acknowledged that the man who yelled at me was wrong for doing so and apologized that her behavior led to that. She acknowledged it was unethical and said he never should have said anything,” she said.

Ahmad also mentioned that once the plane had landed, the pilot came up to her and apologized for what had happened and personally took her to the service desk so she could file a complaint.

A spokesman for United Airlines, Charles Hobart, told newspaper the airline was trying to contact Ahmad in order to “get a better understanding of what occurred during the flight.” Hobart added United was discussing the alleged incident with Shuttle America, United’s regional partner and operator of the flight.

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Ron Paul: Ex-Im Bank Is Welfare For The One Percent – OpEd

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This month Congress will consider whether to renew the charter of the Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im Bank). Ex-Im Bank is a New Deal-era federal program that uses taxpayer funds to subsidize the exports of American businesses. Foreign businesses, including state-owned corporations, also benefit from Ex-Im Bank. One country that has benefited from $1.5 billion of Ex-Im Bank loans is Russia. Venezuela, Pakistan, and China have also benefited from Ex-Im Bank loans.

With Ex-Im Bank’s track record of supporting countries that supposedly represent a threat to the US, one might expect neoconservatives, hawkish liberals, and other supporters of foreign intervention to be leading the effort to kill Ex-Im Bank. Yet, in an act of hypocrisy remarkable even by DC standards, many hawkish politicians, journalists, and foreign policy experts oppose ending Ex-Im Bank.

This seeming contradiction may be explained by the fact that Ex-Im Bank’s primary beneficiaries include some of America’s biggest and most politically powerful corporations. Many of Ex-Im Bank’s beneficiaries are also part of the industrial half of the military-industrial complex. These corporations are also major funders of think tanks and publications promoting an interventionist foreign policy.

Ex-Im Bank apologists claim that the bank primarily benefits small business. A look at the facts tells a different story. For example, in fiscal year 2014, 70 percent of the loans guaranteed by Ex-Im Bank’s largest program went to Caterpillar, which is hardly a small business.

Boeing, which is also no one’s idea of a small business, is the leading recipient of Ex-Im Bank aid. In fiscal year 2014 alone, Ex-Im Bank devoted 40 percent of its budget — $8.1 billion — to projects aiding Boeing. No wonder Ex-Im Bank is often called “Boeing’s bank.”

Taking money from working Americans, small businesses, and entrepreneurs to subsidize the exports of large corporations is the most indefensible form of redistribution. Yet many who criticize welfare for the poor on moral and constitutional grounds do not raise any objections to welfare for the rich.

Ex-Im Bank’s supporters claim that ending Ex-Im Bank would deprive Americans of all the jobs and economic growth created by the recipients of Ex-Im Bank aid. This claim is a version of the economic fallacy of that which is not seen. The products exported and the people employed by businesses benefiting from Ex-Im Bank are visible to all. But what is not seen are the products that would have been manufactured, the businesses that would have been started, and the jobs that would have been created had the funds given to Ex-Im Bank been left in the hands of consumers.

Another flawed justification for Ex-Im Bank is that it funds projects that could not attract private sector funding. This is true, but it is actually an argument for shutting down Ex-Im Bank. By funding projects that cannot obtain funding from private investors, Ex-Im Bank causes an inefficient allocation of scarce resources. These inefficiencies distort the market and reduce the average American’s standard of living.

Some Ex-Im Bank supporters claim that Ex-Im Bank promotes free trade. Like all other defenses of Ex-Im Bank, this claim is rooted in economic fallacy. True free trade involves the peaceful, voluntary exchange of goods across borders — not forcing taxpayers to subsidize the exports of politically powerful companies.

Ex-Im Bank distorts the market and reduces the average American’s standard of living in order to increase the power of government and enrich politically powerful corporations. Congress should resist pressure from the crony capitalist lobby and allow Ex-Im Bank’s charter to expire at the end of the month. Shutting down Ex-Im Bank would improve our economy and benefit most Americans. It is time to kick Boeing and all other corporate welfare queens off the dole.

This article was published by the RonPaul Institute.

The post Ron Paul: Ex-Im Bank Is Welfare For The One Percent – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Sheikh Muhammad Al-Yaqoubi Responds To Al-Julani’s Al-Jazeera Interview – OpEd

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By Matthew Barber* for Syria Comment

Sheikh Muhammad al-Yaqoubi is a respected Sufi scholar and teacher from Damascus who has been an outspoken voice against IS and other extremist groups in Syria. Throughout the course of the uprising, he has been consulted by rebel fighters seeking guidance regarding their conduct in the war. In this capacity, the Sheikh has provided numerous fatwas against acts of extremism, violence against civilians, sectarian violence, and the killing of prisoners. Sheikh Yaqoubi has previously been interviewed for Syria Comment, and more information on his background and activities can be found in that article.

 

This past week, Sheikh Yaqoubi published a short book containing a detailed religious argument against the behavior and tactics of IS. The first of its kind, the book is entitled The Obligation to Fight ISIS: A Detailed Fatwa Proving That ISIS Have Strayed from Islam, Opposed Sharīʿah and That Fighting Them is Obligatory. A strong refutation of IS’ ideology, this work is designed to influence Syrian fighters against IS as well as to curb IS’ recruitment of Muslim youth around the world. It can also serve to encourage IS fighters to leave the organization. An Arabic version of the book has just been published in Turkey and is available here; an English version is forthcoming.

Also this past week, al-Jazeera ran an in-depth interview with Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, Syria’s al-Qaida organization. Highlights of this interview, translated into English can be read here, and the previous post on Syria Comment deals extensively with the interview. Eyebrows have been raised by what has appeared as an attempt to improve Nusra’s image as a more moderate alternative to IS that does not practice takfir (the practice of declaring a Muslim an unbeliever or apostate).

I spoke with Sheikh Yaqoubi on Friday. He shared with me his current efforts to ideologically combat IS, as well as his thoughts on the way that al-Jazeera handled the interview with al-Julani, the ranking representative of al-Qaida in Syria. Below is our discussion.

Sheikh Muhammad, what did you make of al-Jazeera’s interview with Abu Mohammed al-Julani?

The interview was fifty minutes of mockery—a scandal for professional journalism. It is unbelievable that al-Jazeera is doing the dirty job of beautifying this man before tens of millions of viewers, ordinary Muslims, telling them that he is a good man who is doing a good job, helping the Syrian people, a good Muslim, a moderate Muslim—he’s not! It was clear from the interview that the ideology of al-Nusra Front has not changed. Al-Julani twice confirmed his allegiance to al-Qaida, saying that he receives orders from its leader Dr. Aymenn [al-Zawahiri], and the interviewer never interjected any question about this. All the interviewer did was attempt to portray him as a nice man. He never asked him a critical question; he never challenged him.

What do you think is happening today that allows an important representative of al-Qaida to be featured on television in an accepting way by a mainstream voice of the media?

This question should be directed to Qatar’s government. Why are they doing this?

The man clearly stated that he hasn’t abandoned any of his principles. He only stated one thing that differs from his earlier positions: he says that he has received orders from al-Qaida leader Dr. Ayman to not target the West. This is the only real [ideological] change from what he conveyed in his earlier interview in 2013. Now they are just trying to get statements from him to the effect that “we do not do takfir.” And yet in the same interview, he confirmed the extreme position that visiting shrines of saints is kufr or shirk, accusing people who visit shrines of being mushrikiin [those who “commit polytheism” by ascribing “partners” to God]. This means he is going to have to consider most Sunni Muslims apostates (which for him could mean having to kill them) because they have shrines of saints and visit them, such as our shrine for Ibn ‘Arabi in the heart of Damascus, or in Konya the shrine for Mawlana Rumi, the most famous Muslim saint in the world. You have saints everywhere, from Morocco to South Africa, from Indonesia to Istanbul. All these Muslims are mushrikiin—non-Muslims, unbelievers—according to him? How can this be? This ideology is alien to the Syrian people and to the nature of Islam in Syria.

And ironically—or perhaps even sarcastically—they are trying to present him as so friendly toward [minority] sects.

As he said that Nusra will not kill Alawites or Druze.

Druze and Alawites—“if they don’t fight us, if they don’t work with Assad,” then they will not kill them.

But he made changing their religion a prerequisite for this.

This is the key moment where the interviewer failed to interrupt to pose any hard questions. He [al-Julani] gave two conditions. The first was that they abandon Assad, or defect—and this is the understandable politics of war. But the second condition, at which the interviewer did not pause to question him, was, when talking about the Druze villages in Idlib, he said “we have sent them duʿāt” [proselytizers], people to correct their dogma or their Islam.” And about Alawites, also he repeated that “if they accept Islam, we’ll be fine with them.” His approach to Druze and Alawites is that they should become Muslims and “then we will accept them,” which differs from the long-established position adopted by Sunnis, such as the Hanafis and Malikis, who accepted these groups and made them equal to the People of the Book. Al-Julani’s position means that Alawites have the only the choices of converting to Islam or being killed; they would not even be extended the option of deportation.

Now, these Alawites and Druze, along with the Isma’ilis, have lived side by side with Sunni Muslims for over a thousand years, and Muslims did not attempt to erase, eradicate, or convert them, even though Muslims had power, as the rulers of the land, such as the Ottomans. This is because it is part of our legal system that these people could be treated as the People of the Book, which means they are full citizens of the countries where they live. It is in the Hanafi school, the Malaki school, it is even one opinion of Ahmad ibn Hanbal.

Now I understand the position of the Shafi’is, but it was never practiced, so why pick it up after all these centuries? While the majority of Muslim scholars say that even mushrikiin can be treated as the People of the Book? Imam Malik says this very clearly and so does Abu Hanifa. This was practiced for many centuries in Syria, so why now? Why turn the tables after all of this history and begin forcing people into Islam? Al-Julani wants to claim to be more loyal to Islam than the Muslims? More than the Ottomans, more than the Ayubids, more than the Abbasids, more than the Umayyads, more than the companions of the Prophet? This is very strange.

What Shafi’i position were you referring to?

The Shafi’is said that jizya can only be taken from Christians, Jews, and Magians [Zoroastrians], not from others. But this has never been practiced; the Shafi’i opinion on this has never been followed. We have a rule in fiqh: “Practice takes priority.” In other words, the position of a madhab that becomes majority practice is validated, whereas an opposing position of another madhab, if not followed in a certain land, cannot be practiced there. Therefore the Shafi’i position on this has become invalid in Syria and neighboring countries because it was never adopted by any Muslim government. This is even echoed now by one of the major leaders of the current Salafi-jihadi movement, Abu Basir al-Tartusi, who states that the majority opinion on this is superior and should be practiced, and that all should be considered as People of the Book and should not be forced into Islam. He says this on his website.

Help me understand the difference between the Shafi’is on the one side, and the Hanafis and Malikis on the other. Both would agree that the option to pay jizya [rather than convert] is provided to the People of the Book, but the difference is about who is considered People of the Book?

The difference is about who can be annexed to the category, i.e. who can be merged into the People of the Book. It is about whether the “People of the Book” can be extended to include others who can be treated as the People of the Book, or not. Because in the past, when Muslims waged wars, they always offered the enemy three options before fighting: 1) the enemy could become Muslim, 2) they could remain non-Muslim and pay jizya, or 3) they could choose to fight. So for mushrikiin, the payment of jizya was not considered an option, in some opinions. But this was in regards to pagans among the Arabs. And the Hanafis, for example, and the Malikis on a larger scale, and even Ahmad ibn Hanbal according to one narration from him, all quote hadith from the Prophet, salla Allah ‘alayhi wa sallam, reporting that when he sent people to fight pagan mushrikiin, he asked them to offer [to the latter] all three options. This means that even pagans cannot be forced into Islam, if they choose to pay jizya. There is also another hadith, one about the Magians, in Sahih Bukhari, that says “treat them like the People of the Book.”

So from these proofs, these portions of hadith tradition, among others, scholars and Muslim jurists went on to say that all non-Muslim sects are annexed to the People of the Book. Let me state it clearly: Muslims were not keen on killing people. Muslims tried to save the lives of people under any pretext when any proof was available. They valued human life as God’s creation, so when they found these clear proofs from among the words of the Prophet, they knew that Islam was a religion of mercy, because this is the higher purpose of the shariʿa: mercy—not killing people, not harshness, not savagery.

This was the practiced pattern when Muslims had power. Today Muslims are weak, and a group like al-Nusra thinks that it can survive and become a superpower? This is ridiculous. Muslims were superpowers and controlled two thirds of the world, and they did not eradicate sects. They did not force them into Islam.

So when al-Julani mentioned placing duʿāt among the Druze in Idlib, the interviewer did not interrupt him to question the practice.

He didn’t challenge him at all. The way that al-Julani put it was “we sent missionaries, duʿāt, to them, to correct for them their misunderstandings of Islamic dogma.” But Julani is very aware that Druze are considered non-Muslims in books of theology. When they have freedom, they will identify as Druze.

There is no basis for forcing or pressuring others to enter Islam. In my new book on fighting ISIS, I mention that it is even forbidden to slander a Christian or another non-Muslim. Ibn Nujaim, one of the greatest scholars of fiqh and uṣūl al-fiqh in the Hanafi school, said that it is haram, forbidden, to say to a non-Muslim: “you kāfir,”because it upsets him, and you are not supposed to upset him by pointing out his difference in beliefs. This has been established in Islam for centuries. This is why when I once spoke in America at the Catholic University in Washington, I said that the concept of “tolerance” is alien to us, because tolerance means “bearing up with difficulty,” i.e. doing a favor to the other. It is derived from the Latin verb tolerare which means “to endure pain.” The Muslim relationship toward other sects was not based in “doing the favor” of tolerating them; they considered their separate beliefs as their right. Ibn ʿĀbidīn even says in his book Radd Al-Muḥtār that oppression against non-Muslims is worse than oppression against Muslims.

So where do these people like Julani and Baghdadi come from? But this is what results when they destroy the twelve-century-long corpus of law of the four schools. This is what you get: everyone is implementing his own opinion. Everyone who carries a gun is now a mujtahid or a mufti, producing his own fatwas and acting as judge. They claim to act in reference to the book of Allah and the sunna of his Prophet, salla Allah ‘alayhi wa sallam, but they act according to their own understanding—or misunderstanding.

Islamic law develops [over time]. One of its beautiful characteristics is its flexibility. We have certain things that are constant over time, things like the pillars of Islam (prayer, fasting, and so forth), but then we have things that may evolve and change over time. There are a lot of these things, including jizya. It is not something that is rigidly defined, even though it is mentioned in the Qur’an.

So what do you think was the goal of that interview?

The purpose of the interview seemed to be just to elicit certain statements from al-Julani, particularly that “we don’t do takfir to anyone,” in a way that would increase his appeal to the public. It was a very dangerous interview.

And in the interview we don’t really see a renouncing of takfiri practice or ideology?

No. And even if we did, there is more at issue with al-Qaida than the practice of takfir. For example, anyone who believes in democracy, for them, is a heretic. Another example: any Muslim ruler or country that enters an alliance with or seeks assistance from a non-Muslim country—they become unbelievers. There are many problems with al-Qaida, and the ideology is basically the same as that of ISIS, though ISIS has more extreme practices that have now made al-Qaida look nice. But we know that several thousand fighters moved from al-Nusra to ISIS.

Throughout the Syria conflict, every time a more radical group would appear, it would make the groups preceding it look less bad. People were concerned about Islamist groups, but after Nusra emerged, it began to appear as the bigger threat, making the other Islamists appear more moderate. After ISIS emerged, even Nusra began to look better, simply because it was not as extreme. People would perceive any opposition to whatever was the more extreme party as a good thing.

[laughing] Well if you believe in relativity, then that is the case! But we don’t believe in relativity in this criminal arena. You can’t say that a murderer who kills one person is a saint because someone else is killing more.

Let me ask you how you perceive the recent successes of Nusra and other Islamists. You are someone who wants to see a future peace in Syria, and you see both the Assad regime and Nusra as obstacles to that peace. So when you see Assad losing ground and Nusra or other Islamist groups gaining ground, do you interpret this as a positive or negative development, or neither?

Kicking the regime out of areas like Idlib is definitely good, but the ultimate solution for the crisis in Syria will be political. Sometimes people are happy that a piece of land is liberated, but then you see barrel bombs falling on people morning and night in that area, killing civilians and innocents. So it is good that the regime is now weaker, that more people are safe from the torture of the regime’s prisons, from its special art in killing people. But what we need is to finally reach a political solution, where no fighting takes place.

Until now the regime has refused to talk seriously about any political solution. Do you think that with all its recent losses it may experience enough pressure that going to the negotiating table will become a real possibility?

I think that there may now be an agreement to get rid of Assad. Even Russia and Iran now believe that he has become a burden. But what system would follow? Of course Iran wants to guarantee its own interests in the country, and Russia wants to guarantee its interests. We do not want the major destruction of Damascus. So what is happening now is more military pressure on the regime to bring it to the negotiating table, where hopefully Assad could step down, an interim council would be created to which power would be handed over, and we would eventually witness a new Syria.

If that doesn’t happen and the present fight continues to move, say to Latakia or Damascus, the destruction will just go on.

Let me say this: continuing the fight is no longer in the interest of Syrians.

Including the opposition.

Including the opposition because the opposition is not in power and is not represented by the people fighting on the ground. Those fighting are mainly extreme groups like ISIS and others who want to impose their own version of Islam, which is alien to the moderate Sunni Islam that the region has known for centuries. When you look at the four schools you realize that Islam is not about killing. For example, Islamic penalties could not be implemented in times of war, times of famine, times of ignorance and so forth. By putting Islamic penalties on hold, I am not challenging the book of Allah or the sunna. I am not challenging the books of fiqh. I am precisely following the reliable opinion of every school of law. Shariʿa is not about Islamic penalties; these extreme groups have reduced shariʿa to Islamic penalties, they have reduced shariʿa to jizya for non-Muslims. What about truthfulness, what about mercy, what about respect for citizens, what about protecting life? Islam is about these things.

Tell me about the new book you have written. It is a long fatwa about IS. What do you hope to accomplish with it?

First of all, I have seen a lot of need, from inside Syria and from around the world. From inside Syria I receive questions from fighters and commanders, from certain military groups, asking whether they should engage in the war against ISIS, asking whether ISIS are Muslims and whether they can fight against Muslims. And from non-Muslims around the world, you are aware how much fuss there is about ISIS and its crimes, especially after the burning alive of the Jordanian pilot Muaz al-Kasasbeh, Allah have mercy on him. So I saw the strong need [for an authoritative religious response to this], and there was only the one letter that was issued before, that I cosigned [www.lettertobaghdadi.com], but which did not go into enough detail regarding the proofs for the refutation of ISIS, but which mainly presented the basics. So I wrote this book directing the reader to the major positions held by ISIS, such as allegiance to Baghdadi and its validity, kidnapping, burning, slavery. Slavery is one of the major issues and I mentioned that as jurists, doctors of the law, from an Islamic point of view we are bound by international law on the issue, which we [Muslim countries] have signed, and Muslims must not breach their promises. Slavery should not be practiced and cannot be practiced; it is now forbidden in Islam for it to be practiced. This does not contradict the book of Allah or the sunna of the Prophet; it is rather in conjunction with them, because in Islam we are ordered to respect our covenants and contracts. Before the coming of Islam, the Prophet Mohammed participated in a covenant called the Hilf al-Fudūl that was made among tribes in Mecca to protect the oppressed. And after the message of Islam had come, the Prophet said that if he was again invited to such an accord that he would agree to it. So slavery in Islam is not obligatory; it is not the only option. Slavery was one option in Islam only because it was practiced in the world into which Islam came, and if the world comes to agree on abolishing it, we are bound by this. Even more so because our enemies do not enslave us. The only case in which slavery could still be applied would be if the world were to abolish the Declaration of Human Rights and begin to enslave Muslims. In such a scenario, Muslims could enslave their enemies as a kind of reciprocity. But this is impossible, an entirely imaginary hypothesis. There is now no place for slavery at all; it is out of the question.

Now when we spoke in 2013, you mentioned that many fighters were seeking your religious guidance, sometimes about relations with other groups, sometimes about fighting the regime. As the first sheikh to issue a fatwa validating resistance against the regime after its use of violence against the peaceful protesters, you played an important role in legitimizing the armed struggle of the opposition. I wonder now, in early 2015, whether similar numbers of fighters still consult you.

No. The reason is that many moderate fighters, for financial reasons or for lack of weapons and arms support, moved to join with al-Nusra or others. Three years ago there were so many military groups on the ground. Many of them were moderate and were fighting for a new Syria, and their goal was to take out the regime, not to create that form of a state which Nusra or ISIS is seeking to establish now. We all know that many Syrian fighters are now with ISIS or Nusra—they are well paid. Many looked at the international community with frustration, because they didn’t see any support.

But some still contact me and I have received requests from some of the major military groups that still exist, from around the country. Their questions now are not about the regime but mainly concern fighting ISIS.

How much practical influence do you think that you book can have?

It is designed to impact three target groups. The first group is the fighters inside Syria.

And can it physically reach them?

Yes. One major rebel group inside Syria has already requested 10,000 copies of it. A second group has requested 5,000 copies. These are good signs. They want to educate their fighters, to discuss what is right and wrong, who represents Islam, and what kind of Islam is to be practiced. So this is very encouraging. And this is just in the first few days. By the way, I have published 25,000 copies [in Turkey, to be distributed to Syrian fighters] at my own expense. I have had no sponsors. But we are expecting that 100,000 copies will eventually be needed.

The second target group for the book is the youth outside of Syria, around the world, who are at risk for recruitment. They can be reached online, and when they read this book they will realize that ISIS does not represent Islam. Through this effort we will try to minimize the levels of recruitment. That is why there are versions in both Arabic and English.

And the third target group is academia and the media. I receive a lot of questions from both academia and the media about the legal stance of Islam and the various schools on these issues, and this work can help answer those questions from concerned observers.

We are hopeful about the potential of this book and feel that its reception is promising.

The post Sheikh Muhammad Al-Yaqoubi Responds To Al-Julani’s Al-Jazeera Interview – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Violence In Kashmir: Historical Aspects And A Legacy Of Shah Waliullah – Analysis

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By R. Upadhyay

Kashmir has been in news for all the wrong reasons ever since it became an integral part of India but successive eruption of irrational violence in the state is apparently the outcome of the Islamic political system rooted in Arab tradition and underwritten by its warlords. The reformers from all over the Muslim world carried forward such political system as legacy of Islam from generation to generation when ever they felt any challenge to the Islamic political power. After Sheikh Ahmad Sarhindi (1556-1624), Shah Waliullah Dehlawi (1703-1762) was another Islamic mystic of Naqshbandi Sufi order who launched the movement for Islamic revivalism following the death of Aurangzeb when the glory of Sunni extremism started fading.

Drawing inspiration from the Islamist strategy of Waliullah, the separatists in Kashmir are found following his footsteps and pursuing the eighteenth century ideology of political Islamism. Like Waliullah who considered the rise of Hindus under Muslim rule as threat to Islam, the secessionists of Kashmir too believed that governance of a Muslim majority region under secular and democratic constitution of India was against the Sharia and therefore a threat to Islam. They also believe that political supremacy of ‘Hindu-India’ will culminate into its cultural hegemony over Kashmir.

Since the fall of Muslim rule in the sub-continent, communal politics of Waliullah has been awakening the Muslims of south Asia to re-ignite their wrath against India which was regarded by them as a Hindu state. Suffering from the consequences of this medieval mental burden, the separatists of Kashmir abetted and supported by the forces from across the border and beyond are found preaching anti-Indianism to bring Islamic rule in the state. Emboldened with the ‘soft’ attitude of the Indian authorities who are avoiding confrontation with them, the forces of bigotry and hatred have raised their ugly head to launch a full scale attack on the very freedom of common citizens in the state.

Ironically, Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Hind (JUH), the first association of Deobandi Ulema (Islamic clergies) founded in 1919 in British India has started meddling in Kashmir and decided to convene a gathering of all Indian Muslim sects to discuss the present situation in Kashmir on October 4. The Ulema (Plural of Ulama) have described it as “Muslim specific issue”, expressed solidarity with the secessionists and have also invited their leaders in the proposed gathering. Such activism of Ulema suggests that they are revisiting the communal history of eighteenth century Waliullah who was the forerunner of Hindu-Muslim divide in South Asia.

Without realising that the state of Jammu and Kashmir comprising of three regions namely Hindu majority Jammu, Muslim majority Kashmir valley and Buddhist majority Ladakh – is governed by a Muslim Chief Minister with larger majority of his cabinet colleagues being the followers of Islam the JUH has forgotten that the four lakh Pandit refugees from the valley have been the victims of the Islamist violence and are still isolated from their land. Pursuing the path of Waliullah, the JUH is also mobilizing the Muslims of the country irrespective of their sectarian and political divisions and inviting the pro-Pakistani separatists perhaps with the objective to strengthen the Islamist revival movement launched by the eighteenth century clergy.

Born in 1703 at Delhi just four years before the death of Mogul Emperor Aurangzeb who made a complete about turn from the Islamic liberalism of Akbar to Sunni extremism, Shah Waliullah belonged to a family believing in hard-line Islam. He was the grandson of Sheikh Wajihuddin, an important officer in the army of Shajahan who had supported Aurangzeb in the war of succession. He had his academic and spiritual education from his father Shah Abd Al Rahim, a Sufi theologian of great repute who was known for his association with the compilation of the famous Islamic legal text, Fatawa-i-Alamgiri in the name of Aurangzeb.

Rahim was also the founding member and teacher of the Madrasa-i-Rahimiyah in Delhi which produced a galaxy of brilliant Islamic scholars and “forerunner of the famous Darul Ulum Deoband”(Islamic Encyclopaedia Vol. II, Page 254). After his education in Madrasa-i-Rahimiyah, Waliullah went for pilgrimage and higher studies to Mecca and Medina. As a spiritual disciple of his father who “essentially belonged to Naqshbandi” ( The Sufi Saints of Indian Sub-continent by Zahurul Hasan Sharib, 2006, Page242) succeeded him as principal of Madrasa Rahimiyya and carried forward the legacy of Sarhindi with amendment of unity between Shia and Sunni for the tactical reason to counter the rise of Hindus due to prevailing disorder in Muslim society. By the time he returned to Delhi in 1932 after 14 year of his study in Medina, Muslim India was faced with the menacing problems challenging the central authority of Islamic rule which gave rise to apprehension among the followers of Islam that political collapse of Islamic power would be accompanied by religious disintegration.

Disappointed with the progressive decline in the glory of the central authority of Islamic rule in Delhi and critical position of Mogul ruler followed by social, political and religious disorder in Muslim society, Waliullah decided to launch a campaign to popularize Islamic values amongst the Muslims and to present Islam in a manner befitting to the political need of the hour. His intellectual movement for uniting the disintegrated Muslim ruling class to save the united Islamic rule in the sub-continent from its critical condition remained a permanent inspiration for the future Ulema in the days of crisis. Identifying the causes for this decline due to ignorance of Muslims about the political mission of Islamic scriptures, he trained a number of students for propagation of pristine Islam in Muslim society. Training his disciples in different branches of Islamic knowledge and recommending Jihad he interpreted Quran to meet his objective for restoration of integrated Islamic power. As a pragmatic thinker and political strategist, he introduced Islamic reforms in social, religious and political affairs and tried to resolve the conflict between orthodox Islam revived by Sarhindi and championed by Aurangzeb and the alleged heterodoxy introduced by Akbar and championed by Dara Shikoh.

Against the extreme Islamism of Aurangzeb which created aversion to Sufism, Waliullah took a tactical stand for bringing the Muslims of all the sects together and tried to retain the virtues of both within the frame of Islamic trilogy namely Quran, Hadith and Shara. During his long stay in Medina he also came in contact with Maulana Wahhab whose influence provided him to abstain from the blind following to Sufism. Aware of the role of Sufism in spread of Islam in South Asia he did not reject it like Wahhab but was highly critical of tomb worship a traditional form of Sufism. Waliullah regarded the land ruled by non-Muslim power as Darul Harb (The land of war) against which Muslims were expected to launch Jihad and to convert it into Darul Islam (The land of Islam). It means the state of Jammu and Kashmir being governed by secular and democratic constitution of India is also Darul Harb from Waliullah’s concept of political Islam.

Being proud of his Arab origin and lineage from second Caliph Umar, Waliullah was obsessed with Arab tradition and customs and maintained his hateful attitude towards Indian customs and traditions. He maintained, “I ought to conform to the habits and customs of the early Arabs and the Prophet himself as much as I can and to abstain from the customs of Turk and habits of Indians” (Religion and Thought of Shah Wali Allah Dihlawi by J.M.S. Baljon, Lieden E.J.Brill, 1986, page 2).

A prolific writer with the credit of writing 51 books in Persian and Arabic as well as translating Quran in Persian and the letters and tracts of Sarhindi from Persian to Arabic, he became a popular revolutionary Islamic thinker among the Muslims of South Asia and was recognized as a great influential clergy in organizing the reform in Muslim society of the sub-continent. In one of his writing Tafhimat Ilahiyya he made a passing reference stating that “one day it may happen that the Hindus will obtain full power over the whole of India”(Ibid. Page 15). His main emphasis was for deep study of the trilogy of Islamic scriptures by the Ulema. Contrary to the anti-Shia stand of Sarhindi, he sought to reconcile Sunni and Shia Muslims for restoration of strong Muslim rule. Increased influence of Shia in Awadh and Bengal was the compelling reason behind the unity move by this hard core Sunni activist.

Waliullah was the first Islamist reformer in Muslim India who believed in united front of Muslims irrespective of their sectarian division for their combined fight against the rise of non-Muslim power which he viewed as danger signal for Islam. Playing a vital role in forging a united front of the then powerful Muslim rulers and Islamist priestly class against the rising Hindu powers of Marathas, Jats and Sikhs which were posing constant threat to Muslim power, he invited Ahmad Shah Abdali, the ruler of Afghanistan to invade India and to save the crumbling Mogul Empire. In his letter to Abdali, he wrote, “… Draw the sword and do not to sheath it till the distinction is established between true faith and infidelity…” . This letter is a most important historical document of 18th century which furthered the widening divide between the two major religious communities in the sub-continent.

The efforts of Waliullah which brought Ahmad Shah Abdali and Najib-ud-Daula, a noted Rohilla tribal chief of Rohilkhand together resulted in the defeat of Marathas in the third battle of Panipat in 1761 and were “the first step towards creation of Pakistan” (Friendsmania.net). While the ideology based on the concept of hate, bigotry and intolerance which was initiated by Sheikh Ahmad Sarhindi led to the decline of Muslim power in the sub-continent after the death of Aurangzeb, Waliullah carried forward his legacy by forming united front of different sects of Muslims and the Islamic rulers against the rise of Marathas, Jats and Shikhs and added extra fuel to the fire of Hindu-Muslim divide.

Waliullah who launched the Muslim renaissance movement and tried to bridge the gulf between Sufis and Ulema germinated the seed of Muslim separatism sown by Sarhindi which was not only put into practice by the clergies of Deoband movement particularly by the Sufi Ulema like Maulana Rashid Ahmad Gangohi but also inspired Sir Sayed Ahmad Khan who launched Aligarh Movement. Noted journalist M. J. Akbar during a lecture on Muslim and modernity in Aligarh Muslim University (April 20, 2010) said “Pakistan emerged as the twentieth century’s answer to a nineteenth century defeat”. But Waliullah who was instrumental in inviting Ahmad Shah Abdali for invading India which resulted in the victory of the latter in the third battle of Panipat a century earlier in 1761 is regarded as a forerunner of Pakistan Movement. His strong criticism that contact between Muslims and Hindus polluted the Islamic society with un-Islamic customs like tomb worship and extravagance in marriage and other ceremonies had widespread influence over the future Ulema after the end of Mogul Empire. It was the movement of Muslim separatism which truncated the sub-continent on the basis of religion with the birth of Pakistan.

In order to spread the teachings of Islam, Waiullah translated the Quran from Arabic to Persian which was then the official language of Muslim India. Later on his sons translated it into Urdu. The Islamic state of Pakistan too followed Waliullah’s ideology and adopted anti-India policy ever since its birth. Inspired with the thesis of Waliullah, Pakistan always viewed India with Islamist eyes as a Hindu state and therefore treated it as a threat to Islam. “Waliullah’s religious beliefs developed a school of Islamic thought that is relatively unique and is found primarily in today’s Pakistan” (Moslem Nationalism in India and Pakistan by Hafeez Malik, Washington DC Public Affairs Press, 1963, page 71-72).

Despite the failure of his political thought and strategy in saving the Islamic rule in the sub-continent, Waliullah remained a great source of inspiration to future Islamists for their struggle to achieve Islamic political rights. His idea behind forging united Muslim front against non-Muslims to whom he believed as a threatening storm to Muslim India worked as religio-political regeneration of Muslims. Shah Abdul Aziz the son of Waliullah carried forward the legacy of his father and kept the Islamic revivalist movement alive and issued a fatwa for Jihad against the non-Muslim rulers. Inspired with the echo of the third battle of Panipat Syed Ahmad of Bareli, a disciple of Shah Abdul Aziz responded to this fatwa and launched Jihad against the Sikh ruler Ranjit Singh in Punjab but was killed in the battle of Balkot in 1831. As a result of this Jihad which reflected the true character of the political thought of Waliullah and his son, India has been facing violent communal disorder even today. In fact deep influence of the Jihadi spirit of Islam formulated by Waliullah and Sunni extremism of his contemporary Maulana Wahhab left an indelible impact on the psyche of Indian Muslim society.

The history of Islamic civilization in South Asia demonstrated time and again that the culturally arrogant descendants of Arabian Indian priestly class particularly Sarhindi and Waliullah never allowed the development of Islam within the cultural frame of the conquered- territories. They rather abetted the rulers against the conquered subjects without understanding the civilisational sentiments of the latter. Extreme Islamic reformism, intellectualism and activism, the three major under currents which constituted together the mainstream of Islamist revivalist movement therefore, made a perpetual and a critical gap of mistrust between the two religious communities. Even any attempt for reconciliation with non-Muslims was viewed by Islamist clergies as an insult to Islam which they believed as a symbol of Arab imperialism in Muslim India where the Hindus were supposed to be treated as conquered race. Inspired with Waliullah, the on going Islamist violence in Kashmir and its support by a top association of Indian Ulema therefore, has not only posed a challenge to the secular and democratic character of India but has also demonstrated that Arabian Indians primarily responsible for communal divide between Hindus and Muslims are still relevant.

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Kerry Breaks Leg In Cycling Accident

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US Secretary of State John Kerry broke his leg Sunday in a cycling accident while in France.

According to a State Department press statement, “Kerry broke his right femur in a bicycling accident this morning in Scionzier, France. Given the injury is near the site of his prior hip surgery, he will return to Boston today to seek treatment at Massachusetts General Hospital with his doctor who did the prior surgery.”

The State Department noted that Kerry is in stable condition and never lost consciousness, and “his injury is not life-threatening, and he is expected to make a full recovery,” adding that “Secretary Kerry is in good spirits and is grateful to the French and Swiss authorities, doctors, and nurses who assisted him after the accident.”

The State Department did note that Kerry, “regrets not being able to visit Spain to meet with one of our close allies for discussions on a range of issues, as well as being unable to attend the counter-ISIL coalition ministerial meeting on Tuesday in Paris in person.”

Kerry plans to participate in the counter-ISIL coalition meeting remotely, the State Department said.

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Iran In The Middle East: Leveraging Chaos – Analysis

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By Karim Sadjadpour and Behnam Ben Taleblu*

No country in the Middle East has Iran’s combination of geo-graphic size, strategic location, large and educated population, ancient history, and vast natural resources. Regardless of whom rules Tehran, these attributes will always fuel aspirations of regional primacy. During the reign of the United States (US)-allied Shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s external ambitions were cloaked in nationalism and prioritised developing Iranian power and influence within the international system. Since the 1979 revolution and the advent of the Islamic Republic, Iran’s foreign policy has been cloaked in an anti-Imperialist, Islamist revolutionary ideology that has expanded the country’s regional influence by challenging the international system — but has subjected its population to economic hardship, insecurity, and global isolation.

Foremost among these policies has been the Islamic Republic’s staunch opposition to the US and its interests and allies in the Middle East. Since radical students seized the US embassy in the 1979 hostage crisis, Iran and the US have been engaged in an often cold, and occasionally hot, political and asymmetrical conflict from the Levant to the Persian Gulf. While the promise of a nuclear deal has raised hopes for US-Iran reconciliation, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has consistently made clear his profound mistrust toward Washington and his opposition to political normalisation.

Along with opposition to the US, the active rejection of Israel’s existence has been one of the Islamic Republic’s chief ideological principles. Many of Iran’s revolutionary leaders – such as the father of the 1979 revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini – became politicised after the loss of Palestinian/Muslim lands to the newly founded State of Israel in 1948. Today, they continue to see Zionism and Western imperialism as two sides of the same coin. To counter Israel, Iran has generously funded and armed groups like the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah (‘Party of God’), which it helped create after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Tehran has also provided extensive financial and military support to Palestinian Sunni militant groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

Iran’s revolutionary ideology is not only a source of internal legitimacy for the Islamic Republic, but also a means for Shiite, Persian Iran to transcend ethnic and sectarian divides and try to lead the predominantly Sunni Arab Middle East. In 2011, for example, Iran sought to co-opt the Arab spring by branding it an ‘Islamic awakening’ against Western-supported Arab autocrats, inspired by the 1979 Islamic revolution. This narrative was quickly punctured, however, when the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and the government of Nouri al-Maliki in Iraq – both close Iranian allies – crushed their predominantly Sunni Arab dissenters. Iran’s complicity in these slaughters has undermined its popularity and leadership in the Sunni Arab world and deteriorated its relationship with its key Arab rival, Saudi Arabia.

HOW TEHRAN WIELDS INFLUENCE

More than any other state in the Middle East, Iran has been effective at filling regional power vacuums. The four Arab countries in which Tehran currently wields most influence – Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen – are engulfed in civil strife and are ruled by weak, embattled central governments. In each of these contexts and elsewhere in the region, Tehran spreads its influence by 1) creating and cultivating non-state actors and militant groups; 2) exploiting the fears and grievances of religious minorities, namely Shiite Arabs; 3) fanning anger against America and Israel; and 4) influencing popular elections in order to ensure the victory of its allies.

Nowhere are these dynamics more evident than in Lebanon, where Iran’s long time Shiite proxy Hezbollah plays an outsized role in Lebanese politics and society while continuing to be the country’s most active military power. Over the last three decades, Iran has used Hezbollah as both a threat and deterrent against the US and Israel, but more recently, Hezbollah has fought to ensure the survival of the Alawite-ruled Assad regime in Syria. The increased vulnerability of Assad and Hezbollah has made them more reliant on Tehran for financial support and protection, giving Iran unprecedented influence (and burdens) in the Levant.

Indeed, since the start of the Syrian unrest Tehran has stood by Assad despite numerous atrocities – including the repeated use of chemical weapons – highlighting a statement by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds-Force (IRGC-QF) Commander, Qassem Soleimani, who reportedly said: ‘We’re not like the Americans. We don’t abandon our friends’. For the Islamic Republic, the fight to save Assad is the fight to save Hezbollah. Former President Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani alluded to this in 2013, proclaiming: ‘We must possess Syria. If the chain from Lebanon to [Iran] is cut, bad things will happen’.

US attempts to weaken Iran’s regional influence have often backfired. Though the 2003 US- led war against Saddam Hussein intended to spread Iraq’s nascent democracy to Tehran, the subsequent power vacuum that was created instead helped spread Iranian theocracy to Baghdad. Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite politicians prevailed over their more liberal counterparts in popular elections, and Iranian-backed Shiite militias repelled America’s military presence in Iraq, making Tehran the single most important external force in Iraq. The resulting anger and radicalisation of Iraq’s Sunni community and the rise of Daesh (also known as Islamic State) has only increased the Iraqi Shiite ruling elite’s dependency on Iran.

Given that Shiites constitute a small percentage of the largely Sunni Middle East, the region’s growing sectarian tension is inimical to Iranian interests. Yet this has not stopped Tehran from seizing opportunities to exploit Arab Shiite grievances in order to undermine its regional nemesis Saudi Arabia. In Yemen, Tehran has attempted to co-opt an indigenous Zaydi Shiite movement called Ansar-Allah (popularly known as the Houthis) with financial and military aid. In September 2014, Ansar-Allah took the Yemeni capital Sana’a, and has recently been fighting back a coalition of ten countries led by Saudi Arabia. While Yemen was already often referred to as a failed state, the ceaseless violence has only worsened the country’s humanitarian crisis.

In the majority Shiite island of Bahrain, which is ruled by the US-aligned al-Khalifa monarchy, Iran also attempted to co-opt large scale protests in 2011 spurred by the Arab spring. Bahrain has long been the subject of Iranian irredentist rhetoric, and Iranian elites openly tout their disdain of the Sunni al-Khalifa dynasty. Despite Tehran’s attestations of not meddling in the island’s civil unrest, Bahraini security forces have intercepted Iranian arms shipments allegedly destined for the island’s anti-government forces. Home to the 5th Fleet of the US Navy, a change of regime in Bahrain would suit both Tehran’s strategic and sectarian interests.

Tehran’s foremost criterion in strategic allies, however, is not sectarian affiliation but ideological affinity. Hamas and PIJ, both Sunni, have been generously supported by Iran in their fight against Israel. In its efforts to counter the US, Tehran has shown a willingness to offer discreet tactical support for ideological adversaries such as the Sunni Taliban in Afghanistan, or to allow al-Qaeda finance networks and personnel in Iranian territory. On a global scale, Tehran has forged alliances with a motley crew of non-Shiite, non-Muslim actors – including North Korea and Venezuela – who are united only by their common adversaries.

CLEAR INTENTIONS, UNCLEAR CONTRIBUTIONS

Given the covert character of Iranian support for local proxies as well as the lack of transparency of the Iranian system, it is impossible to assess the precise nature and scope of Tehran’s regional exploits. What is clear, however, is the fact that Iran’s political-ideological army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite Quds Force unit are responsible for devising and implementing Iran’s regional policies, not diplomats in the Iranian foreign ministry.

While Iranian budget data is notoriously nebulous, the IRGC’s share of the country’s official defence budget appears to have increased to almost 62 per cent (see Figure 2), although its unofficial resources greatly exceed its parliamentary appropriation. The IRGC and its veterans have also come to play a sizable role in Iran’s economy, controlling large conglomerates that dominate Iran’s energy and infrastructure projects. One such conglomerate, Khatam al-Anbia, reportedly controls over 800 companies and employs more than 25,000 people. The IRGC also earns tens of billions of dollars by operating dozens of small ports (jetties) throughout Iran that are not subject to tariffs. Furthermore, some Iranian international airports (also controlled by the IRGC) reportedly contain sections outside the realm of customs. According to some estimates, the IRGC earns US$12 billion a year just from contraband activities.

More broadly, Iran can afford to underwrite its support to allies and proxies in the Middle East chiefly by way of its petroleum revenues. Despite enduring onerous economic sanctions, Iran still exports around 1.4 million barrels per day of oil to six countries (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, and Turkey), which have received waivers from the US.

According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessments, Iranian oil and gas earnings for the 2013-2014 fiscal year amounted to roughly US$56 billion. While dropping from the previous year’s reported figure of US$63 billion, non-oil exports have also been increasing. Furthermore, should a comprehensive nuclear deal be inked this summer, Iran may receive up to US$50 billion of its roughly US$100-US$140 billion in frozen oil-revenues upfront.

While Tehran’s financial assistance has been indispensable to the Assad regime’s survival, the precise figures are widely contested. Amidst reports of lines of credit in the low billions to the Syrian government, United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura allegedly stated that the Islamic Republic was providing Syria with up to US$35 billion annually.

And while exact figures about Iranian financial support to Hezbollah are also elusive, appraisals of Iranian aid have ranged between US$200 to US$500 million dollars annually. Together, Iran and Hezbollah have helped create a Syrian paramilitary group called Jaish al-Sha’abi, reportedly 50,000-strong in support of Assad.

Furthermore, Iran’s commitment to a Shiite dominated government in Baghdad has meant increased IRGC activities in that country. Iran’s closest allies remain the Iraqi central government and numerous Shiite militias. To date, Iran has provided the central government with Su-25 fighter jets and a US$195million arms deal.Iraq’s Shiite militias have benefited from Iranian arms, but most importantly, the battlefield experience of Iran’s IRGC-QF chief, Qassem Soleimani, who has been pictured with numerous groups in Iraq. Soleimani’s visibility in supporting both the Iraqi military and Shiite militias in the front lines against Daesh has also boosted their morale.

Figure 1 Select Iranian Defense Spending (Million IRR)

Figure 1 Select Iranian Defense Spending (Million IRR)

THE IRAN-SAUDI RIVALRY

In the eyes of the Islamic Republic’s leadership, its chief adversaries in the Middle East are Israel and Saudi Arabia, both of whom they disparage as pawns of the US. While revolutionary ideology drives Iran’s antipathy toward Israel more than national interests (prior to the 1979 revolution Iran and Israel had substantial economic and security cooperation), the Saudi-Iran rivalry is sectarian (Sunni vs. Shiite), ethnic (Arab vs. Persian), ideological (US-allied vs. US opposed), and geopolitical. Both Tehran and Riyadh see themselves as the natural leaders of not only the Middle East, but also the broader Muslim world.

At the moment the two countries are on opposing ends of several bloody conflicts, including Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Bahrain, and the Palestinian Territories. It is a vicious cycle: regional conflicts exacerbate the animosity and mistrust between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which in turn exacerbates the regional conflicts. The festering conflicts in Syria and Iraq have provided fertile ground for radical Sunni militants such as Daesh, which combines remnants of al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein’s Baathist military. Though Daesh is a threat to both Tehran and Riyadh, it is unlikely that the two sides will manage to directly collaborate against it given their divergent diagnosis of the problem; Iran attributes Daesh’s rise to Saudi financial and ideological support, while Saudi Arabia attributes it to the repression of Sunni Arabs in Syria and Iraq.

The Saudi ruling family is in a difficult position in that the spread of Daesh and its radical ideology pose a grave danger to Riyadh; yet, appearing to join forces with Shiite Iran against their Sunni brethren would have domestic repercussions.

Daesh is not a sensitive political issue within Iran, but neither the Iranian government nor its Syrian client has an incentive to see its total elimination. Daesh’s savage behaviour – including mass rapes, pillages, and immolations – makes Assad, Hezbollah, and Iran appear progressive in comparison. In essence, the Iranian government is willing to fight Daesh but does not want it totally eradicated yet, while Saudi Arabia would like Daesh eradicated but does not want to fight it.

While the Sunni Arab world has been perennially plagued by internal discord, mutual concerns about Iran have seemingly begun to unite them, as evidenced by the coalition in ‘Operation Decisive Storm’ arrayed against the Iranian-backed group Ansar-Allah in Yemen. Led by Saudi Arabia, Decisive Storm has featured jets from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Even Turkey, a key Iranian trading partner, issued its support for the action. Just days before an impending trip to Tehran, Turkey’s President Erdogan warned that ‘Iran is trying to dominate the region’.

Figure 2 Proposed Public Iranian Defense Spending for 1394 (Million IRR)

Figure 2 Proposed Public Iranian Defense Spending for 1394 (Million IRR)

IRAN’S OUTLOOK: NATIONAL INTERESTS VERSUS REVOLUTIONARY IDEOLOGY

While the Islamic Republic of Iran’s regional prowess may be a source of national pride for some Iranians, it has produced few tangible benefits for the vast majority of the people. Apart from Syria and Iraq, Iran has virtually no veritable allies in the Middle East. Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars Tehran has invested in the region since 1979, Arab foreign investment in Iran is negligible. And given the Iranian government’s violent crackdown on peaceful ‘Green Movement’ demonstrators in 2009 and its support for an Assad regime that has displaced nearly half of Syria’s 20 million people, few Arabs look to Iran today as a source of emulation.

Just as painful economic sanctions forced the Iranian government to contemplate a nuclear compromise, staggering financial, human, and reputational costs will eventually force the leaders of the Islamic Republic to reassess their regional policies. Yet there is little evidence to suggest such a reassessment is currently taking place. On the contrary, the public pronouncements of Iranian officials portray a clear sense of regional ascendancy. In 2014, a member of Iran’s parliament reportedly proclaimed that, ‘Three Arab capitals (Beirut, Damascus, and Baghdad) have already fallen into Iran’s hands and belong to the Iranian Islamic Revolution’. More recently, Iran’s IRGC-QF Commander Qassem Soleimani boasted, ‘We are witnessing the export of the Islamic revolution throughout the region’.

Some hope that a nuclear deal – when and if finalised – could strengthen pragmatic forces in Tehran who favour prioritising national and economic interests before revolutionary ideology, which could augur a more diplomatic Iranian approach toward regional conflicts. At the same time, sceptics fear a deal would not only fail to moderate Iran’s regional policies, but would also provide Tehran with a significant financial boost to buttress Assad, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, and other radical groups hostile to human rights, civil society, and Western interests.

While Iran’s domestic politics are famously unpredictable, there is little evidence to suggest that 75-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is prepared to abandon or meaningfully alter the Islamic Republic’s longstanding revolutionary principles, namely opposition to US influence and Israel’s existence. Throughout the last three decades, these pillars of Iran’s foreign policy have shown few signs of change, despite the election of ‘moderate’ presidents or tremendous financial strain due to sanctions and/or low oil prices.

This is despite the fact that since 1979, the Unit- ed States and Iran have faced common adversaries in the former Soviet Union, Saddam Hussein, the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and now Daesh. While the overlap in US and Iranian interests may at times allow for tactical cooperation, as long as Khamenei remains supreme leader Iran is likely to maintain strategic hostility toward the United States. Indeed, one of the historic fault lines between Iran’s so-called ‘principalists’ – those who believe in fealty to the principles of the 1979 revolution – and its pragmatists is the fact that the latter have been willing to work with the United States against Sunni radical groups (such as the Taliban), while the former have been willing to work with Sunni radical groups against the United States.

Though Khamenei’s hostility is cloaked in ideology, it remains driven by self-preservation. As the powerful Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati once noted, ‘If pro-American tendencies come to power in Iran, we have to say goodbye to everything. After all, anti-Americanism is among the main features of our Islamic state’. In July 2014, Khamenei indicated he strongly agreed with an American commentator whom he paraphrased as saying, ‘Reconciliation between Iran and America is possible, but it is not possible between the Islamic Republic and America’.

CONCLUSION

The paradox of Iran is that of a society which aspires to be like South Korea – proud, prosperous and globally integrated – hindered by a hard-line revolutionary elite whose ideological rigidity and militarism more closely resembles isolated North Korea. During Iran’s 2013 presidential campaign, Hassan Rouhani marketed himself as the man who could reconcile the ideological prerogatives of the Islamic Republic with the economic interests of the Iranian nation. Despite these elevated expectations, however, Iran today remains a country of enormous but unfulfilled potential. And unless and until Tehran starts to privilege its national interests before revolutionary ideology, both the Iranian people and those in its regional crosshairs will continue to suffer the consequences.

*About the authors:
Karim Sadjadpour is a Senior Associate at The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is an Iran Research Analyst in Washington, DC, and has been published in The National Interest, War on the Rocks, and The Long War Journal

Source:
This article was published by FRIDE as Policy Brief – No 202 – May 2015 (PDF)

This Policy Brief belongs to the project ‘Transitions and Geopolitics in the Arab World: links and implications for international actors’, led by FRIDE and HIVOS. We acknowledge the generous support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway. For further information on this project, please contact: Kawa Hassan, Hivos (k.hassan@ hivos.nl) or Kristina Kausch, FRIDE (kkausch@ fride.org).

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US And Qatar Discuss Fate Of 5 Taliban Released In Prisoner Swap

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The US and Qatar are currently in discussions over the fate of five Taliban figures a year after their release in a high-profile prisoner swap, CIA director John Brennan said Sunday, according to AFP.

A year-long travel ban on the five released prisoners is due to expire, raising questions amongst officials on what will happen next.

“I want to make sure that they’re not going to be allowed to return to the fight,” CIA chief Brennan said Sunday on the CBS talk show “Face the Nation.”

The five Taliban figures were released in exchange for American Sergeant Bowie Bergdahl on May 31, 2014, after which they were transferred from US detention camp Guantanamo Bay to Qatar.

Current discussions between the US and Qatar are to examine whether the five released prisoners will be allowed to return to Afghanistan.

Officials are “looking [at] what are the arrangements that can be put in place, what is going to be the disposition of these individuals, whether they will be sent back to Afghanistan or stay in Doha,” said retired US General Stanley McChrystal on CNN show “State of the Union.”

Bergdahl was captured by the Taliban in June 2009 after going missing from his unit in Afghanistan. He was later charged with desertion and misbehavior before the enemy. The swap was harshly criticized as a stark departure from the US’s longstanding policy of not negotiating with hostage-takers.

Original article

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Iraqi PM Al-Abadi Defends Letting Iran Help Fight Islamic State

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Iraqi Prime Minister Heydar Al-Abadi has defended the cooperation his country receives from Iran in fighting against ISIS forces.

Al-Abadi said in a television interview that Iran has supported his country in facing the threat of ISIS.

He referred to the collaboration between Iran and Iraq as “necessary”.

The U.S. and its Arab allies in the region are concerned about Iran’s growing influence in Iraq.

However, Heydar Al-Abadi stressed that the fight going on in Iraq is in effect an effort to remove threats to the Persian Gulf countries.

Iranian Qods force leader Ghassem Soleymani, who is leading Iran’s efforts in Iraq, has accused the U.S. of “partnership in conspiracy” and “a lack of will” to fight against ISIS.

Soleymani was quoted as saying after the takeover of Ramadi by ISIS forces last week: “Mr. Obama! What is the distance between your bases and Ramadi. You establish yourself with the excuse of supporting the people but then do nothing when people are being killed. What do yo call this?”

In the most recent cooperative effort between Iran and Iraq, Shia militia forces under Iranian support will help in an effort to take back Ramadi. Reports indicate that Sunni tribes will also be present in these operations.

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What’s the Difference?: Comparing US And Chinese Trade Data – Analysis

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By Michael F. Martin*

The U.S. merchandise trade deficit with the People’s Republic of China (China) remains a major source of bilateral tension. Members of Congress and other U.S. government officials often point to the bilateral trade imbalance as evidence that China is not competing fairly in the global market.1

Debate over this trade deficit is hampered by disagreement between the two countries on how large the deficit actually is. According to official U.S. figures, China has surpassed Canada as the largest supplier of U.S. imports, running up a bilateral trade surplus in 2014 of $342.6 billion. However, according to official Chinese figures, China’s trade surplus with the United States in 2013 was only $237.0 billion—$105.6 billion less than the U.S. figure (see Table 1).

The size of the bilateral trade deficit also has been an issue in proposed legislation addressing trade relations with China. For example, the Emergency China Trade Act (H.R. 2909) introduced during the 112th Congress would have revoked normal trade relations (NTR) status, also known as most favored nation (MFN) trade status, for China and required the President to negotiate a trade agreement with China that would “achieve and maintain balanced trade” between the two nations within four years of the bill’s enactment. As of the time this report was released, no similar legislation had been introduced by the 114th Congress.

Comparison of U.S. and Chinese Trade Data

Table 1 lists the official trade statistics from the United States and China for the years 2001 to 2014, using official trade data.2 According to both countries, the U.S. trade deficit with China is large and growing. Where the two sides differ is how big the deficit is and how fast it has grown. From the U.S. perspective, its bilateral trade deficit with China more than quadrupled in value over the last 13 years, from just over $83 billion in 2001 to over $342 billion in 2014. However, from the Chinese view, its bilateral trade surplus with the United States increased eight-fold, from about $28 billion in 2001 to more than $237 billion in 2014.

Table 1 reveals that most of the discrepancy between the trade data from the two nations stems from significantly different figures for China’s exports to the United States. While the difference between the U.S. and Chinese figures for U.S. exports to China was generally less than $10 billion until 2011, China’s figures for its exports to the United States differed by $48.0 billion in 2001 and $96.0 billion in 2014. However, the discrepancy between U.S. export and Chinese import figures for bilateral trade has been rising in recent years.

Table 1. U.S. and Chinese Trade Figures, 2001-2014

Table 1. U.S. and Chinese Trade Figures, 2001-2014

Delving into the Data: Examining HS Code

The most widely used international system for classifying traded goods is the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System, commonly referred to as the Harmonized System or simply HS Code. Every product traded is classified into a 10-digit code. The first two digits of the products code correspond to one of the 98 HS “chapters,” that classify all goods in general categories. The U.S. International Trade Commission maintains the U.S. version of the HS Code, officially called the “Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States,” or HTS. Since both the United States and China use the same HS chapters, it is possible to compare the trade data at this level.

Table 2 lists in rank order the top five HS chapters according to the difference between the figures for U.S. imports from China and Chinese exports to the United States for 2014. In all five cases, the U.S. import figures exceeded China’s export figures. The top five HS chapters—leather articles (42), footwear (64), machinery (84), electrical machinery (85), and toys and sporting goods (95)—account for over 90% of the difference between the U.S. and Chinese figures.

All five of these chapters also ranked high according to both countries in terms of their absolute value of trade. With the exception of leather articles, the other four were among the top five ranked chapters in terms of the value of imports from China, according to the United States, and accounted for 60.1% of the total value of imports in 2014. Four of the sources of discrepancies— electrical machinery, footwear, machinery, and toys and sporting goods—were among the top 10 sources of exports to the United States, according to China.

Table 2.Top Five Discrepancies for U.S. Imports from China, 2014

Table 2.Top Five Discrepancies for U.S. Imports from China, 2014

On the other side of the trade equation, there were five chapters where China’s imports exceeded U.S. exports by more than $1 billion, and no chapters where U.S. exports exceeded Chinese imports by more than $1 billion. China’s officially reported imports from the United States of miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruits (12); organic chemicals (29); plastic (39); machinery (84); electrical machinery (85); and optical and medical equipment (90) were more than $1 billion greater than the official U.S. exports to China.

It is also worth noting that on both sides of the trade balance equation, two of the greatest differences in the official trade statistics of the two nations occurred in the same HS chapters— machinery (84) and electrical machinery (85). The discrepancies between the official trade statistics for these two types of goods have been consistently large for flows in both directions since 2001, indicating a systemic difference in the evaluation of the bilateral trade of these goods.

Explaining the Differences: Literature Summary

The question as to why China’s official statistics are routinely much lower in value than the official U.S. trade statistics has been and continues to be the subject of analysis by scholars, government officials, and other interested parties. The following is a short review of some of the key explanations provided in this literature, categorized into “technical” and “non-technical” explanations. “Technical” explanations refer to procedural or administrative causes for the discrepancies; “non-technical” explanations include causes arising from non-procedural or non- administrative sources.

Technical Explanations

Official Definitions of Exports and Imports

In its official statistics, China evaluates exports using the more commonly used “free on board” (F.O.B.) terms,3 and evaluates imports using “cost, insurance, and freight” (C.I.F.) terms.4 The United States, however, reports its exports using “free alongside” (F.A.S.) terms5 and values imports using a customs definition.6 As a result, official U.S. trade data place a lower value on both U.S. exports to China and imports from China than the official Chinese data. In addition, direct comparisons of the official U.S. and Chinese trade balances reported in the media are potentially misleading because the goods trades are being evaluated using different methods. For more accurate direct comparisons, the trade data for both nations should be determined using the same terms, such as the general international practice of F.O.B. for exports and C.I.F. for imports.

Definition of Territory

The United States includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in its trade data; China does not. China treats Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as separate customs territories. According to most studies, this is a comparatively minor source of difference in the trade figures.

Timing

Because of the distance between China and the United States, it takes time between the export of the goods from China and their import in the United States. Goods in transit at the end of the year are counted as exports by China, but not as imports by the United States. However, the lag between shipments occurs at the beginning and the end of the year, thus minimizing the effect of timing on the overall trade balance difference.

Declaration of Country of Origin

The current practice of U.S. Customs is to rely on the declaration of the importer to determine the country of origin. Some analysts believe that importers are misidentifying a significant amount of imports as Chinese.

Exchange Rates

Because China’s currency, the renminbi, is allowed to fluctuate within a small range, the exchange rate between the renminbi and the U.S. dollar changes over time.7 The value of a shipment may change between the date it leaves China and the date it arrives in the United States due to changes in the exchange rate. Although the renminbi has appreciated against the U.S. dollar over the last few years, exchange rate changes are not considered a major factor in the discrepancy in the trade figures.

Non-Technical Explanations Value Differences in Direct Trade

According to two joint China-U.S. studies (see “Joint China-U.S. Studies of Discrepancies” below), about half of the merchandise trade discrepancy between U.S. imports from China and Chinese exports to the United States—or eastbound trade—is attributable to changes in the values of the export price in China and the import value in the United States for goods shipped directly between the two countries. Part of the difference may be caused by mid-shipment transfers in ownership resulting in the new owner adding a markup in the price. Another possible explanation is intentional under-invoicing of exports (see below).

Under-Invoicing

Some analysts believe that Chinese importers may intentionally under-value imports from the United States to lower the import tariff due on the shipment. In addition, some analysts believe that Chinese exporters may intentionally under-value exports to the United States to maximize their net proceeds overseas for various tax and regulatory reasons. Due to the “hidden nature” of under-invoicing, it is difficult to assess how much this may be contributing to the differences in the trade data.

Intermediation

Although estimates vary, most analysts agree that a large portion of China’s exports arrive in the United States via a third party, Hong Kong being the most commonly identified location.8 The intermediation of shipments raises two sources of discrepancies. First, the exporter from China may not know that the goods eventually will be shipped to the United States, and may therefore list the third party (e.g., Hong Kong) as its destination, but U.S. Customs may list the source of shipment as being China. Second, the value of the shipment may change—with or without any actual change in the goods—between its arrival in and departure from the third location. The joint China-U.S. study of discrepancies in merchandise trade statistics determined that value differences account for about half of the differences between Chinese and U.S. trade statistics.

Joint China-U.S. Studies of Discrepancies

In April 2004, the 15th JCCT established a statistical working group, with representatives of China’s Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs, and the U.S. Department of Commerce and Office of the USTR. The initial focus of the working group was to examine the “unusually large and growing statistical discrepancies in the bilateral merchandise trade data officially published by [the] two countries.”9 It was subsequently decided to conduct a reconciliation study to determine the causes of the discrepancies. However, it was agreed that the results of the study were not intended to imply errors in either nation’s statistical systems and/or methods of calculating official merchandise trade data.

Under the auspices of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT), China’s Ministry of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Commerce and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) have conducted two studies to determine the causes of the statistical discrepancies in the official merchandise trade data reported by both nations. The first report was released in October 2009; the second in December 2012.

The main conclusions of the two studies are largely the same. The greatest discrepancy is in the “eastbound trade” data, which accounts for 80%-90% of the overall difference in annual trade balance. Roughly half of the “eastbound trade” data discrepancy can be attributed to goods that “leave China, enter the commerce of intermediate countries or regions, and then [are] re-exported to the United States.”10

Implications for Congress

The release of the official U.S. annual trade figures has been frequently followed by expressions of concern about the size of U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China. According to official U.S. trade figures, the bilateral trade deficit with China in 2014 was more than four times the size of the next largest bilateral trade deficit (Germany, $73.7 billion) and greater than the sum of the next seven largest bilateral trade deficits.11

China, however, does not accept the accuracy of the official U.S. figure for the Sino-U.S. trade balance. In 2007, China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Jiang Yu, said, “imbalances in China- U.S. trade are an objective fact, but this is also related to the two sides’ different statistical methods.”12

Also, when considering means or actions designed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China, it is useful to know which goods are the main sources of discrepancies between Chinese and U.S. trade figures, and how important they are in the overall trade flow between the two nations, so that “trade remedies” may be better targeted at the perceived problem.

According to this report, the main problems appear to be in the trade figures for electrical machinery, machinery, and toys and sporting goods.

For those causes of the differences resulting from data compilation—such as misidentification of value or country of origin of imports—Congress may choose through oversight or other means to encourage the responsible U.S. agency to examine and adjust its procedures for compiling trade data. In addition, Congress may decide to press or otherwise encourage China’s customs services to conduct a similar review of its trade compilation procedures. In other cases, more detailed analysis of the trade data may be helpful in persuading China to amend or alter its laws, regulations, and policies pertaining to the import or export of goods to the United States.

About the author:
*Michael F. Martin,Specialist in Asian Affairs

Source:
This article was published by the Congressional Research Service.

Selected Bibliography on the Differences Between U.S. and Chinese Bilateral Trade Figures

  • “Accounting for Discrepancies in Bilateral Trade: The Case of China, Hong Kong, and the United States,” by Michael J. Ferrantino and Zhi Wang, China Economic Review, vol. 19 (2008), pp. 502-520.
  • Adjusted Estimates of United States-China Bilateral Trade Balances—An Update. K.C. Fung, Lawrence J. Lau and Yangyan Xiong. June 2006. Stanford Center for International Development, Working Paper No. 278.
  • Methodology of U.S.-China-Hong Kong Triangular Merchandise Trade Statistic Reconciliation. Alexander Hammer, Lin Jones, and Zhi Wang. August 2013. Office of Economics Research Note, U.S. International Trade Commission, No. RN-2013-08A.
  • Report on the Statistical Discrepancy of Merchandise Trade Between the United States and China, Report by the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade Statistical Working Group, October 2009.
  • The Second Phase Report on the Statistical Discrepancy of Merchandise Trade between the United States and China, Report by the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade Statistical Working Group, December 2012.
  • Statistical Differences in Sino-US Trade Balance. February 12, 2007. China Online. http://chinaculture.about.com/library/china/whitepaper/blstrade2.htm
  • The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: Its Size and Determinants. Robert C. Feenstra, Wen Hai, Wing T. Woo, and Shunli Yao. May 1998. Paper presented at the UNDP-HIID Conference on China’s Integration in the Global Economy, January 17, 1998.
  • The U.S.-China Trade Imbalance: How Big Is It Really? Sarah Y. Tong. March 2005. China: An International Journal. Volume 3, No. 1, pp. 131-154.

Notes:
1. Both China and the United States have substantial trade surpluses with some trading partners and trade deficits with other trading partners. Also, the phenomena of significant difference in the trade figures between two trading partners is not uncommon. The size of the differential between China and the United States is particularly large.
2. China values its exports using the “free on board,” or F.O.B. method and its imports using the “cost, insurance, and freight,” or C.I.F. method. The United States values its exports using the “freight along side,” or F.A.S. method and its imports using the “Customs value” method. The implications of the different evaluation methods are discussed later in the report.
3. “Free on board” includes the cost of getting the goods to port and loading them onto the ship; sometimes also referred to as “freight on board.”
4. The C.I.F. definition adds the cost of insurance and shipping (freight) to the value of the imported goods.
5. Unlike F.O.B., F.A.S. does not include the costs of clearing the goods for export and loading the goods. As a result, the FAS value of a shipment is less than its FOB value.
6. The customs definition only includes the actual cost of the goods; it does not include the cost of insurance and freight. As a result the customs value of a shipment is less than its CIF value.
7. Since June 2010, China has maintained what it calls a “managed floating exchange rate regime” that allows its currency to fluctuate within a restricted range on a daily basis. For a more detailed discussion of China’s exchange rate policy, see CRS Report RS21625, China’s Currency Policy: An Analysis of the Economic Issues, by Wayne M. Morrison and Marc Labonte.
8. In a 2006 study, Fung, Lau and Xiong reduced the difference between the U.S. and Chinese trade deficit for 2005 from $87.4 billion to $26.5 billion by adjusting the trade data for Hong Kong re-exports. In a 2005 study, Tong estimated that adjustments for re-exports resulted in a $22 billion reduction in the trade balance difference for 2003. In an August 2013 study, Hammer, Jones, and Wang calculated that intermediation by third countries other than Hong Kong accounted for much of the remaining differences between Chinese and U.S. trade statistics after adjustments were made for valuation systems. See selected bibliography at end of report for complete citations of these studies.
9. Report of the Statistical Discrepancy of Merchandise Trade Between the United States and China, Hangzhou, China, October 2009.
10. Ibid.
11. The next seven largest bilateral trade deficits in 2014, in order, were Germany—$73.7 billion; Japan—$67.0 billion; Mexico—$53.8 billion; Canada—$33.9 billion; Saudi Arabia—$28.4 billion; Ireland—$ 26.2 billion; and South Korea—$25.1 billion; for a total of $333.2 billion—$9.4 billion less than that of China.
12. Washington Trade Daily, February 16, 2007.

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Paving The Path For Rule Of Law In China: Reform Or Empty Rhetoric? – Analysis

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By Mahalakshmi Ganapathy*

After the tumultuous period of the ’cultural revolution’, China saw in the late 1970s a reform and opening up policy. It was in 1980 that the Organic Law of the People’s Courts (revised in 1983) and the 1982 State Constitution established four levels of courts in the general administrative structure with the SPC at the apex. In the 1990s, China had established the fundamental principle to govern the nation according to rule of law and the years 2004 and 2008 saw further steps taken in the direction without much concrete action on the ground. It was in the year 2012 that China came up with a White Paper on Judicial Reforms which recognized the need for judicial reforms in the face of growing demands for justice from the people and for China’s role in the global stage as a responsible power. It was, however, only in the Plenum of 2014 when serious discussion on rule of law and concrete steps initiated to achieve the goals laid.

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of Communist Party of China, which was held October 2014, was important for the right reasons. An entire plenary session was dedicated to the “Rule of law”. This is for the first time that the ruling party of China dedicated an entire plenary session for such a topic. In his address to the Fourth Plenary, President Xi Jinping exhorted officials to “govern according to law”, ordered Party departments to support judges and prosecutors to exercise their duties independently by “creating a favorable environment” for them to do so. He also maintained that Party committees at all levels should set an example of abiding by the law. Leaders at the Fourth Plenum also called upon ranking officials to follow the rule of law and cautioned that they would be held responsible if they interfere in the judicial activities and in the handling of cases.

The reform is part of Xi Jinping’s vision for a Chinese legal system which would be less open to influence and corruption at the local level while still being held under the final authority of the Chinese Communist Party. This peculiarity of the Chinese system where the judiciary is not independent but subservient to the Party rule needs to be kept in mind while discussing reform in China

Winds of change?

Two immediate consequences have emerged as a result of the Fourth Plenum and its emphasis on governing according to the rule of law. The first is reflected in the speech by Chief Justice Zhou Qiang, who presented the work report of the Supreme People’s Court (SPC). In his report made to the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) held on March 12, 2015, he highlighted that the SPC would “make it more convenient and efficient for people to seek legal services for court decisions and resolutely prevent and correct wrongful convictions”. He expressed regret for the wrongful convictions during his tenure and thus resolved to implement changes, acknowledging the mistakes made in the past to move beyond and put into action changes made during the discussion of the 4th Plenum meeting.

The second consequence is the implementation plan for judicial and social reform published by the CPC Central Committee’s General Office, and the General Office of the State Council. The plan with an aim to solve the deep-seated problems that are impairing social justice in China, has unveiled a blueprint to build a “socialist judicial system characterised by justice, high efficiency and authority”. Increasing judicial independence is the first major thrust that has been identified. It has also firmly resolved to reduce influence of local governments and their hold on court system by changing the way appointments and finances are handled. According to the new plan, judicial selection committees will be established at the provincial level, removing the ability of local governments to promote judges friendly to their interests

Reforms are also moving to change the decision making system, shifting from the judiciary council making the final ruling to judges deciding on a case without seeking approval of judicial council. While the judges won’t be completely independent and would have to work with the council on “some cases”, the move has been seen in positive light as an incremental step towards reform. At the SPC Monitor, Susan Finder notes that the overall goal of the reforms is “to step away from the traditional model of judges as cadres,” instead creating a specialized judicial force.

Reform of the judiciary has been long overdue in China and according to an official statement made in context of the meeting, the rule of law is necessary for the path of China’s economic growth, a clean government, to attain cultural prosperity and realize the strategic objective of peaceful development. But a close look at judicial reforms shows the excruciatingly slow process it has taken to come up with a workable set of reforms.

The latest initiative of the State on judicial reforms has earned appreciation and suspicion from scholars and China watchers worldwide. Skeptics have been wary of the phrase “comprehensively advancing the rule of law” by Xi Jinping and suggest that China actually follows a “rule by law” or “rule by man” over a “rule of law” approach. In China, the Communist Party is not governed by the constitution. Rather, the constitution serves the party. Thus “rule of law” here would always mean rule of law under the leadership of the Party and is unlikely to change in this Plenum too. According to Rogier Creemers of the University of Oxford, the shift to a “rule of law” with Chinese characteristics could be a great initiative for the reforms, but questions whether it is possible to have effective rule of law under a one-party system.

Critics also point out how the Communist Party influences judicial decisions in direct and indirect ways. Party groups within the courts enforce Party discipline and the Party approves judicial appointments and personnel decisions. The Party exercises direct influence in individual cases through the Political-Legal Committees (PLCs) at each level of government. Although PLCs focus primarily on ideological matters, they can influence the outcome of cases, particularly when the case is sensitive or important. Here the local governments are also important actors as they exert external interference in judicial decision making for protecting local industries, litigants or to shield themselves from liability from administrative lawsuits. They control local judicial salaries and court finances and are also influential in making judicial appointments.

Paul D. Gewirtz, Director of the China Law Center at Yale presents a hopeful view that the plenum is serious about the reforms and would not project it merely as a tool to control Chinese society but the discussion reflects the leadership’s recognition that it needs to improve and address governance issues, widespread public grievances. The plenum also has reacted positively to increase judicial openness and transparency, improve fairness to individual litigants, and further professionalize judging.

A new survival strategy

China has been dealing with multiple complexities. While on one hand it projects itself to the world as a growing, “responsible” power, domestically, it is faced with issues ranging from economic disparity, social and political unrest and the stronghold of the Party seem to be on decline in the face of these surmounting problems. In wake of such complex issues, President Xi has come up with the slogan of ’Four Comprehensives’ as a political guide to govern China. According to an editorial in the People’s Daily, which gave the slogan a definite shape, points out that while ’building a moderately prosperous society’ remains the Party’s primary objective, social justice, rule of law and clean governance are indispensable in this pursuit.’

The survival of the Party and its legitimacy depends on how seriously they understand the ground voices and act accordingly. Thus, it seems timely for the Party to change the basis for its right to rule from one that delivers economic goods to one that promises both the fairness and predictability that are currently lacking.

*The writer is a researcher at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi

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China Spells Out Its Military Strategy: ‘Active Defence’ Against Any Offence

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On May 26, the State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China issued its latest Defence White Paper. Being ninth in the order since 1998, this defence paper marks a significant departure from its eight predecessors, in terms of adopting a concrete policy framework. Unlike being conceptualised under the existing norm of “China’s National Defense”, the current white paper titled “China’s Military Strategy”, is the first Chinese white paper that is exclusively premised on military strategy and thereby, provides a blueprint of China’s strategic military thought to the world at large. Rather than solely building on the old framework of ‘China’s threat perceptions’, the 2015 military doctrine, first of its kind, does give some transparency to China’s long standing opaque defence policy- denominating China’s strategic intentions by outlining a strategy that combines strategic defence with operational and tactical offence.

In this view, the white paper is reflective of China’s bold and confident posture in the changing dynamics of the international system. By finally pronouncing the direction of its military buildup, it is clear that China has also taken a normative departure from Deng Xiaoping’s dictum of “Keeping a low profile”. This argument stands validated as China’s such a strategic move projects its confidence and military preparedness to ‘stick its neck out’. By pledging “active defence” as the essence of “CPC’s military strategic thought”, the White Paper posits China’s military intentions by clearly specifying: “We (China) will not attack unless we are attacked, but we will surely counterattack if attacked” and further added that “China will never seek hegemony or expansion”.

Keeping this context, it becomes imperative to decode the underpinnings of this grand ‘Chinese Military Strategy’. Hereby, the assessment can be done under a three-tier framework of- context, content and scope that defines and distinguishes the 2015 defence white paper.

First, the context that defines the essence of this white paper. Undoubtedly, it is born out of China’s imminent security concerns in the changing discourse of international system. Clarifying China’s military goal to “maintain regional and world peace”, and suggesting that “in the foreseeable future, a world war is unlikely, and the international situation is expected to remain generally peaceful”, the white paper outlines China’s concerns of “new threats from hegemonism, power politics and neo-interventionism”, whereby “the world still faces both immediate and potential threats of local wars”. Under these new circumstances, the justifications to China’s defensive military posture is equated by its threat calculations. In this case, the imminent security challenges as the paper notes is posited by US “rebalancing strategy” and “its military presence and military alliances” in Asia; Japan’s increasing militarist posture for it “is sparing no effort to dodge the post-war mechanism, overhauling its military and security policies”. It also mentions that “some of its offshore neighbors take provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on China’s reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied”- clearly hinting at Philippines and Vietnam. Adding to this, it emphasizes on how “some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs” and “maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance against China”. Besides, it also reiterates China’s core security concerns over “Taiwan independence”, “East Turkistan independence” and “Tibet independence”.

Second, the content that defines China’s military strategy. Undoubtedly, the White Paper fosters a heavy tone to Chinese military posture to realize the Chinese Dream as it claims “[w]ithout a strong military, a country can be neither safe nor strong”. For China’s armed forces, the primary goals are: “[to build] a strong military”, focus on “core security needs”, build an “informationized military” and win “informationized wars”, “deepen the reform of national defense and the armed forces”, “build a modern system of military forces with Chinese characteristics”, and “enhance their capabilities”to address security threats and accomplish “diversified military tasks”. To meet these goals, the armed forces will adhere to the principles of flexibility, mobility and self-dependence so that “you fight your way and I fight my way”. Thereby, in safeguarding its interests, China wants to follow a military strategy of “active defence”, which the Chinese view to be in contrary to “proactive” defence policies of other international actors mainly United States and Japan. That is, Chinese military will focus on growing internationalization of its military role under active defence. The motivation behind this “active defence” posture is to dispell China’s military strategy from being interpreted as that of aggressive, expansionist or interventionist.

The major shifts undertaken in China’s defence strategy as outlined in Section IV of the 2015 white paper: The PLA Army “will continue to reorient from theater defense to trans-theater mobility”; The PLA Navy “will gradually shift its focus from ‘offshore waters defense’ to the combination of ‘offshore waters defense’ and ‘open seas protection’” and; the PLA Air Force “will endeavor to shift its focus from territorial air defense to both defense and offense”.

These shifts in China’s defence policy suggest that China is shifting its focus from its internal security and territorial integrity to that of areas beyond its borders- that is, adopting an internationalized outlook to its defence framework. This objective is clear from the white paper, which states that:

“With the growth of China’s national interests, its national security is more vulnerable to international and regional turmoil, terrorism, piracy, serious natural disasters and epidemics, and the security of overseas interests concerning energy and resources, strategic sea lines of communication (SLOCs), as well as institutions, personnel and assets abroad, has become an imminent issue”.

And lastly, scope of the military strategy is primarily centred in the maritime domain, that is to win “informationized local wars” by “maritime preparation for military struggle” – wherein China wants to build a ‘blue-water navy’. This forms the key nodal point of the 2015 defence white paper. In the row of security concerns that disturb China’s strategic interests, thus as the white paper declares it is a “long-standing task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests”. As it is suggestive that the PLA Navy (PLAN) will imbibe greater role in shifting its focus from “offshore water defence” to combining it with “open seas protection”- taking a shift from defence to offence. Endowed with an estimated 14,500 kms coastline and faced with tensions in the crucial international waters, the white paper makes a strong pronouncement of China’s maritime strategy by stating that: “The traditional mentality that land outweighs sea must be abandoned, and great importance has to be attached to managing the seas and oceans and protecting maritime rights and interests”. This is indicative of China’s maritime posture whereby an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea (SCS) cannot be outlawed as its ongoing reclamation activities strongly call for China’s assertive ADIZ move in the future. Therefore, it signals a warning to the other actors in the SCS dispute.

While what makes the shift to the seas more imperative is China’s grand vision of “One Belt, One Road” Initiative, wherein China’s seapower capabilities will equip it to realize the dream of “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”- a grand vision that challenges the western world order.

Therefore, in an overall analysis, it can be construed that the 2015 defence white paper on “China’s Military Strategy” does provide some direction in understanding China’s future moves. It is clear that China will grow much bigger both literally and figuratively in its strategic military capabilities in order to secure its national interests. The significant shift is visible in terms of moving from being a continental power to that of becoming a seapower- equipped with a ‘blue-water navy’. Therefore, in the near future, China’s military muscle will experience its obtuse flexing mostly in the critical international waters- mainly South China Sea, East China Sea and Indian Ocean. Therefore, with the fall of events, only time can spell the way the strategy will be played out by China in order fulfill its unparalleled ambitions.

*Amrita Jash is a Doctoral Candidate and Senior Research Fellow in the Chinese Division of Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. She can be reached at: ajash108@gmail.com.

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Blatter Enables AFC To Keep Its Skeletons Under Lock And Key – Analysis

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Embattled FIFA president Sepp Blatter has spun the world soccer body’s crisis as a public relations and reputation management issue and a problem caused by individuals rather than a crisis resulting from financial and political corruption embedded in FIFA’s culture. In doing so, he has given a blank check to interested soccer administrators to conduct business as usual instead of ensuring that their organizations do not confront a crisis similar to that of FIFA.

Despite the arrest last week in Switzerland of seven of his associates in advance of possible extradition to the United States< Mr. Blatter has yet to acknowledge that his group has structural corruption issues that need to be addressed. Mr. Blatter’s approach is being followed by associates elsewhere such as Asian Football Confederation (AFC) president Sheikh Salman Bin Ebrahim Al Khalifa.

The AFC like CONCACAF, its counterpart in North and Central America and the Caribbean, and CONMEBOL, the South American Confederation, faces potentially serious questions regarding the integrity of it’s awarding of broadcasting and marketing rights to sports marketing companies and broadcasters. US legal proceedings have forced CONCACAF and CONMEBOL to revisit their commercial arrangements with their marketing partners.

Messrs. Blatter and Salman have however shown little inclination to introduce structures that would replace their rule by patronage, a system that ensured Mr. Blatter’s re-election despite multiple corruption scandals on his watch, with one that holds out hope for transparency and accountability. One model would be the Dutch Postcode Lottery, which rakes in similar amounts of money each year, but distributes funds through a separate and independent foundation.

Mr. Salman, much like Mr. Blatter, has refrained from discussing the need for internal reviews and investigations and has opted instead to ensure that the AFC’s skeletons remain closeted. Mr. Salman congratulated Mr. Blatter on his election victory, which he helped make possible by committing Asia to support the FIFA president who faces questioning by Swiss authorities.

Mr. Blatter’s election may have bought Mr. Salman time, but like the FIFA president, pressure on the head of the AFC to clean up his organization rather than act as if there are no potential time bombs is likely to mount as US and Swiss legal proceedings progress. The US investigation has already prompted, according to the BBC, two British banks to launch internal reviews to establish whether they were used for payments related to the US indictments.

Moreover, former FIFA vice president Jack Warner, who turned himself in to police in Trinidad & Tobago after his name appeared among those indicted in the US, has suggested in the past that he has the evidence that could bring FIFA’s roof down. Mr. Warner released in 2011 in a shot across FIFA’s bow an email from FIFA s general secretary Jerome Valcke asserting that Qatar had bought its 2022 World Cup hosting rights.

Afraid that Mr. Warner would endanger Qatar’s success, disgraced former FIFA vice president and AFC president Mohammed Bin Hammam bought the Caribbean’s silence, according to The Sunday Times, with a $1.2 million bribe. Mr. Warner no longer has anything to loose and could follow in the footsteps of his sons, Darryl and Daryan, who have turned state’s witnesses in the US.

The Sunday Times focused its reporting on FIFA and Qatar based on millions of documents believed to have been obtained from an AFC server. It is unclear what secrets about the AFC may be buried in those documents.

However, a 2012 audit by PricewaterhouseCooper (PwC), whose recommendations have yet to be acted on, questioned a $1 billion master rights agreement (MRA) with World Sport Group (WSG), a sports marketing company headquartered in Singapore, a beacon of anti-corruption. WSG failed to squash reporting on the audit with legal proceedings against this blog’s author when the Singapore Supreme Court ruled against the company in a 2013 landmark verdict.

Mr. Salman was not in charge of the AFC at the time of the audit that focused on Mr. Bin Hammam’s financial management of the group but his record since coming to office in 2013 is hardly stellar in terms of transparency and accountability.

The Bahraini national has centralized power within the AFC and manipulated the group’s elections last month to ensure that Kuwaiti Sheikh Ahmad Al-Fahad Al-Sabah would get a seat on the FIFA executive committee that could position him to succeed Mr. Blatter latest in 2019 when the FIFA president’s current terms ends.

Like Mr. Salman, Mr. Ahmad is a staunch supporter of Mr. Blatter and one of international sports most important power brokers, who last week reportedly worked the corridors to ensure that the FIFA president would defeat his reformist challenger, Prince Ali Bin Al Hussein.

Since coming to office, Mr. Salman has buried the PwC audit that questioned the fact that the WSG contract had not been tendered or concluded on the basis of financial due diligence, does not detail $250 million in direct costs nor give the AFC auditing rights, and may be undervalued. The audit further noted that WSG had not been required to provide a bank guarantee to the AFC or allow the Asian body to review the company’s financial data.

“We understand from AFC management that although the AFC has made repeated requests to WSG to provide a breakdown of direct costs, to date this has not been provided. WSF (World Sport Football Ltd, a company associated with WSG) have cited that they have no legal obligation to provide this information,” the 2012 audit said.

The audit further noted two payments to Mr. Bin Hammam by a WSG shareholder totalling $14 million. The audit, which was limited in scope and resources said that “no direct evidence has been identified to confirm a link between the payments purportedly for the benefit of Mr Hammam and the awarding of the MRA.” The audit raised similar concerns about an eight-year broadcasting rights agreement with Qatar’s Al Jazeera network.

“We have been unable to get clarity as to why third parties, some of whom appear to have some connection to WSG, are paying Mr Hammam large sums of money. As stated above, although it is believed that these funds were for Mr Hammam personally, we cannot discount that these funds were intended for the AFC,” the audit said.

The audit warned that Mr. Bin Hammam’s financial management potentially put the AFC at risk of having been used as a vehicle for money laundering, bribery and sanctions busting related to Iran and North Korea.

Mr. Salman’s only known action related to the PwC audit was last month’s suspension of AFC general secretary Dato Alex Soosay after this blog and the Malay Mail disclosed a video-taped and written statement in which AFC finance director Bryan Kuan Wee Hoong disclosed that Mr. Soosay had asked him to tamper or hide any documents related to the general secretary that could be of interest to the auditors. Mr. Kuan’s allegation suggested that others within the AFC had been involved in Mr. Bin Hammam’s financial management of the group.

In a statement at the time, the AFC appeared to be seeking to deflect attention from the PwC audit by saying that the investigation of Mr. Kuan’s allegations were related to a “FIFA investigation.” Mr. Kuan’s allegations were never reported to FIFA. In the tape and in his written statement, Mr. Kuan left no doubt that the incident was related to the PwC audit.

The post Blatter Enables AFC To Keep Its Skeletons Under Lock And Key – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Rabat And Abidjan Vow To Combine Development Strategies, Boost Partnership – OpEd

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Following successful Royal trips to Cote D’Ivoire in 2013 and 2014, King Mohammed VI arrived on Saturday afternoon in Abidjan on a working and friendship visit to the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire, the third leg in an African tour that took the sovereign to Senegal and Guinea-Bissau and that will be wrapped up with a visit to Gabon.

At the Ivorian economic capital, Abidjan, King Mohammed VI will meet President Alassane Ouattara, with whom he will lead a series of interviews, and co-chair of ceremonies findings of bilateral protocols, including on investment and economic cooperation and social issues.

The Ivorian press, has echoed this visit, which raises an axis, once marking on the African scene, the Rabat – Abidjan established by their wills and their proximities, fired by King Hassan II and President Félix Houphouët -Boigny.

Thus, the Ivorian media considers the arrival of the King in Ivory Coast as a revitalsation of a friendship between Morocco and the Ivory Coast, old, and some embedded, but having suffered the last decade, the horrors of political uncertainty and departures absolutism, which came to an end, that through democratic renewal that took place in the country after the fall from power of former president Laurent Gbagbo and the internationally recognised democratic election of the current Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara.

Morocco and Côte d’Ivoire are carried by their vigorous reforms drive, to establish new bonds of cooperation, both political, strategic, security and any efficient economic cooperation between the two partners in Africa remains dependent on legislative efforts and bilateral or multilateral agreements, business incentives.

On the political and security front, the two leaders continue to emphasize the great convergence of views between the kingdom and the Côte d’Ivoire, the main topics engaging the region and the continent.

SOUTH – SOUTH COOPERATION

The lights encompassing trade and economic, scientific and technical development have to change direction for a south south convergence, where the watchwords among African countries, should be, aid and mutual assistance, cooperation and complementarity.

The promoters of South-South inter-African relations and a united and prosperous Africa taking its rightful place in international relations. King Mohammed VI and President Alassane Ouattara, are “men in construction sites,” signal by their cooperation in a rational content , the emergence of a new stage of a long and certainly infinite model relationship between Morocco and Côte d’Ivoire.

This new Royal visit represents another opportunity to discuss the strong Morocco-Cote d’Ivoire economic partnership and opportunities to further strengthen the relationship, including through increased investments and expanded market access in both countries.

In an increasingly globalized world, where countries tend to promote matters of mutual interests, one among them being resource interdependency in order to boost economic growth, and generate job opportunities to their citizens. One apparent example is the longstanding economic relationship between Morocco and Côte d’Ivoire.

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The Weakening Foundations Of Western Power – Analysis

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Why are current anxieties about the West’s decline different from earlier periods of doubt? John Rapley thinks it’s because the economic, demographic and military expansion on which Western power has rested over the last two centuries has run its course.

By John Rapley

From today’s vantage-point, it seems incredible that scarcely a dozen years ago some Western governments persuaded themselves that they had the wherewithal to invade a major Middle Eastern power, remove an inconvenient leader and install a friendly regime. The conviction that no threat was beyond the capacity of concentrated Western military power seems a distant memory in an age when America is trying to withdraw from its battlefields and ‘pivoting’ to concentrate its military resources. Today, Western military budgets – those of the US and its NATO allies, not to mention Japan – are either flat or declining. Lest one think this vindicates the camp which believes the world is getting less violent, one must caution that the trend is largely confined to the West. In 2013, while global military expenditure declined overall, simply removing the US from the calculation reveals a global military budget that rose by nearly two percent. As the West retreats, new powers, especially but not only China, continue rising.

Of course, it’s not the first time that the superpower has retreated from a foreign fight with its tail between its legs. Thoroughly chastened in Vietnam, the American fighting-machine came roaring back in the 1990s – new, improved and having digested the lessons of its earlier mistakes, which it put to good use in the first Gulf War. All the same, this time does appear to be different, because the economic landscape has changed markedly. Indeed, this time the foundations of Western power seem far more fragile.

The sources of relative decline

When the Vietnam War ended, rising oil prices and surging inflation had brought an end to the decades-long growth phase that had characterised the post-World War II West. Annual economic growth rates that had averaged in the 4-6% range in Western countries now slowed to zero. The apparent inability of the then-dominant Keynesian model of state-managed economic expansion to restore growth yielded a major political change. The election of Margaret Thatcher in the UK in 1979, and Ronald Reagan in the US the next year, ushered in a new economic model of free markets and a minimalist state – what came to be known as neoliberalism. Among the dominant features of this new model were trade liberalisation and a weakening in the power of unions, two changes which reinforced one another. Trade liberalisation made it possible for firms to outsource their production to low-wage zones, which in turn enabled them to threaten restive unions with job cuts.

The result was that real wages fell while profits rose. In the quarter century after 1980, for instance, corporate profits in the US nearly tripled as a share of GDP while real wages stagnated (according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis). Initially, this new policy orientation seemed to be just what the doctor ordered for Western economies. By the late 1980s, growth had resumed. Assisted by declining interest rates (driven down by austerity policies and wage-repression), the West, led by the US, was scaling unprecedented heights of economic prosperity by the 1990s. The remaining opposition to neoliberalism then caved and re-oriented itself around a new generation of politicians led by figures like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair.

But while the 1990s were filled with heady talk of a ‘new paradigm,’ the boom obscured underlying trends, which remained less promising. In a nutshell, the shift of national income away from labour and towards capital had driven up returns on the latter, which produced a stock-market boom. Low-interest rates encouraged everyone to join the ride, and Americans bought stocks on credit with an abandon last seen in the 1920s. This fuelled a bubble, creating a so-called wealth effect. Feeling richer, Americans in particular went shopping. But rather than cash in their profits, they borrowed against their capital gains to spend, further stoking the boom.

A little-noticed feature of the decade’s global politics, one which was entirely cyclical, reinforced this trend. When a financial crisis broke out in East Asia in 1997, and spread the next year to Russia and Latin America, the global economy teetered on the brink of catastrophe. This prompted the US to act, lending the International Monetary Fund enough money to boost its war chest. The IMF then started bailing out crisis-stricken governments. However, a condition for IMF assistance was that recipient governments could not use capital controls to limit the rush to safety by panicked investors. So as Asian countries got bailout funds, a flood of money into Western, and particularly US, treasury paper followed. This drove down interest rates even further, giving a mature stock market yet a bit more room to run. But it was ultimately a blip. The long-term trend remained: Capital was moving to ‘emerging markets’ to take advantage of abundant cheap labour supplies, which were only being augmented by the continued opening-up of China.

When the panic of the Asian Crisis subsided and capital began flowing back to the developing world, the carpet was pulled out from under the stock market. In 2000, it duly crashed. As central banks tried to shore up asset values by cutting interest rates, a series of bubbles ensued, beginning with real estate. Each bubble led to a new crash in a rolling series of crisis-and-response that continues to this day. Meanwhile, deep in the foundations of the Western economy, there had apparently been an ominous development.

Research on productivity reveals that underlying productivity growth has been slowing for decades. A recent book by Tyler Cowen, The Great Stagnation, sums up the various arguments cogently, but he merely speak for a rising chorus of opinion which is growing more pessimistic. Technological optimists, led by our politicians, insist that the information revolution will so transform our lives that we will experience our next industrial revolution. But so far, there has been little evidence of this happening. Some, like America’s leading scholar on productivity Robert Gordon, now wonder if the major technological leaps of the past, like the steam engine and electrification, were essentially fortuitous one-offs which there is no reason to expect will be repeated. Technology is revolutionising our lives, to be sure. But it doesn’t seem to be doing that much to increase economic productivity.

Worsening the picture is the relative demographic decline of the West. Often overlooked by those who read future progress into past performance is that the two centuries of economic growth which transformed the modern world coincided with a demographic expansion which appears now to have run its course. Population growth has already turned negative in Japan and Germany, while economic crisis has reversed growth in Greece and Spain as well. Across the West, only immigration has kept the population from declining. The abundant cheap labour of the past two centuries which drove rapid economic expansion can in principle be replaced with still-cheap supplies from the developing world. But as the recent upsurge in nativist politics reveals, there are clear limits to the immigration option.

The end of growth?

The 2007-2008 financial crisis more or less brought growth to a halt in the West. Economists are divided over how to break out of this rut. Keynesians call for continued reflation while more orthodox economists insist on further austerity to keep interest rates low so that investment picks up. But most of them agree that the current slow-down can be overcome.

This comity may reveal less about the state of the economy than it does the state of economics. Take Britain, for example. Over the last decade, house prices have risen by a fifth. However, in the same period, productivity has flat-lined (according to the UK Office of National Statistics). Driving house prices, in no small measure, has been the Bank of England’s loose monetary policy, which has flooded the economy with cheap money. Government policy, in other words, has further encouraged house-buying. But if property-owners are feeling sufficiently flush that they have loosened their purse strings, leading the country back out of recession in the process, the effect is likely to prove temporary. Unless rising wealth leads to renewed investment in productivity-enhancing technology, the experience will likely end as recent episodes of rising asset values did – which is to say, quite badly.

Developed OECD countries

Developed OECD countries

Relative decline is hardly a new topic in Western intellectual debate, and the pessimists have often appeared too quick to play chicken-little in the past. Nevertheless, optimists who maintain that Western growth rates will return to those of old may have an even worse record of prediction, at least so far. Despite regular reminders that we are on the cusp of a technological new age, the trend-line of growth in the Western world speaks volumes.

Unless evidence of a new age actually emerges, Western governments will continue to face the need to do more with less. Meanwhile, pressure from powerful constituencies, and in particular the rising demands of an aging population for pensions and health care, will inevitably prod politicians to look for savings outside their domestic budgets. Military budgets will prove irresistible targets, meaning that the West’s fighting-forces will need to become leaner and more efficient. This means that Western governments will have to pick their battles judiciously, use diplomacy more creatively, and practice a triage of sorts in deciding from which parts of the world they will need to scale back or even withdraw.

It won’t be an easy task, and if history is any guide, the transition may produce a less stable world.

*Dr. John Rapley is a researcher at the Centre for Development Studies at Cambridge University. He has worked at universities in Britain, the US, Canada, France, South Africa and the Caribbean. From 2003-2011 he left the classroom to create the Caribbean’s first independent think tank, the Caribbean Policy Research Institute. He also has a long history as a public scholar, and has published in a wide variety of newspapers and magazines, from the Jamaica Gleaner to Esquire.

The post The Weakening Foundations Of Western Power – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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