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Burundi Crisis Key Issue For African Union Summit – Analysis

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By Alfredo Tjiurimo Hengari*

A few weeks ago, forces loyal to President Pierre Nkurunziza stymied a coup d’état in Burundi. A few months earlier, last October to be precise, the exact opposite occurred when an army officer in Burkina Faso, Lt Col. Isaac Zida, dislodged in a bloodless coup d’état West Africa’s former strong-man and president of that country, Blaise Compaoré.

Following suspension from the African Union (AU) and pressure from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Zida has morphed into civilian form as Prime Minister, with Burkina Faso returning to ‘civilian rule’ a month later.

Burundi

Burundi

Burundi for its part is in the throes of heightened political uncertainty with legislative and presidential elections in June 2015 remaining more than doubtful. After a bloody civil war and a peace process that ushered the country into a democratic state-building exercise from 2004, Burundi is now on the verge of full-scale conflict. These developments are worrying after the considerable investments in peace and post-conflict-reconstruction made by the United Nations, the Nordic countries and South Africa over the past 15 years.

But such political crises – and the violence that accompanies them – can be averted by the international community. What is more, the AU is well positioned to deal with these new forms of tension and violence.

The events in Burundi and Burkina Faso have one disturbing element in common: attempts by sitting heads of states to extend their stay in power by amending constitutions (or re-interpreting them). Similarly, in Togo although the crisis did not escalate, Faure Eyadema’s election to a third term as president in April this year illustrated the palpable tensions that accompany a longer stay in power. This ought to be a source of concern for the AU. If the mooted constitutional amendments in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Benin and the Republic of Congo are factored into the political horizon, instability becomes a real but unattractive eventuality in these countries.

What is to be done to stem the tide of constitutional amendments and stays in office beyond two terms? The causal effects between constitutional amendments and extended stays in power on the one hand, and political tensions and instability on the other is becoming widespread. More worryingly, these are now undermining neighbouring countries, increasing the potential for regional insecurity. This should be of concern to Regional Economic Communities (RECs) where peace and state building are in their infancy after years of war, bad governance and political instability.

With overwhelming evidence suggesting an upward trend in tensions in these countries, it is urgent for the AU to open up the discussion on term extensions and the threat they pose to fragile state-building and democratic governance in Africa. The still vivid events in Burundi, and the initiative in Dar es Salam by the EAC plus South Africa in averting a full-scale crisis, provides a framework to cascade this pressing issue to the June 2015 AU Summit agenda in South Africa.

After all, the twin worries of war and instability, which at this point ought to be collectively shared by virtue of their devastating effects, should create the space for summit to seriously consider a debate that locates this issue in the preventive diplomacy arsenal of the AU. It should be emphasised that seeking to deal with crises that emanate from extended stays in office is a misguided effort that deflects attention from what RECs and the AU should really be focusing on at this point – development.

One of the key pillars of the AU preventive diplomacy is to avert war and conflict before it rears its ugly head. It is not sufficient to share the burden of conflict mediation, as the EAC plus South Africa is doing on Burundi, without getting to the root cause of the problem – constitutional amendments and extended stays in power. These should be discouraged in Africa where democratic institutions are still on shaky ground.

In what is the strongest rebuttal of this trend, President Jacob Zuma at the Peace and Security Council (PSC) in January this year raised concerns about what he termed ‘a worrying trend of constitutional amendments aimed at extending the mandates of incumbent Heads of State and Government which has led to a number of tensions on the continent’. With such a strong statement from a key consolidating democracy, the summit will not be starting on a blank page.

To ignore this trend is no longer an option, and the AU and South Africa can pursue one or two of three options.

First, in order to send a strong signal, it would be even more opportune for President Jacob Zuma’s statement at the summit to echo his position at the PSC January meeting. South Africa has already argued against the trend. But what is required now is to build up support in a broader constituency.

The second option, which could prove far more problematic, is for the AU Commission Chairperson, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to use her statement to draw the link between conflict and constitutional amendments in broad terms, including their impact on development and regional security.

The third option, which is less onerous, is for the AU Commission to channel a position paper through Early-Warning and preventive diplomacy instruments, which could be ready for the January 2016 Summit. This would require far more substantive consultations and discussions through existing instruments such as the PSC, the AU Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, and including the AU Constitutive Act.

Without doubt, strong sovereignty norms and the domestic framing of constitutional amendments provide the AU Commission and South Africa with little wiggle-room to convince their peers. But the political crisis in Burundi is one too many. After all, Aspiration 4 of the AU’s ‘Agenda 2063: The Future We Want’, whose implementation plan will be up for discussion at the June summit, seeks to silence the guns by 2020.

This is a noble precondition for the more pressing task of economic development. But it could prove elusive if the AU does not frame and proactively deal with constitutional amendments for third and fourth terms as new forms generating instability, violence and regional insecurity.

*Dr Tjiurimo Hengari is a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs. A version of this article was first published in Business Day.

The post Burundi Crisis Key Issue For African Union Summit – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


China Strategically Undercutting US In Middle East – Analysis

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By Suman Sharma*

The Middle East Region has always figured high in China’s Grand Strategy not only in terms of lucrative markets for China’s economy and energy security but far more importantly in geopolitical terms. Hemmed-in by the vast Pacific Ocean under United States military control and supremacy, in China’s Grand Strategy a “Look West” Strategy as opposed to the “Look East” Strategy of her peer Asian rival has received concerted strategic focus. This is the driving factor in Chinese policy formulations towards the Middle East and Central Asia.

China views the Middle East Region as a strategically lucrative region where China can exploit the disequilibrium generated by the United States strategic acts of commission and omission in the last decade or so. The Region was therefore ripe for China’s strategic undercutting of the United States.

Undoubtedly, the United States has been the predominant strategic and military power in the Middle East historically during the Cold War era and would continue to do so throughout this century notwithstanding the turbulence generated by the Middle East Region lying at the “crossroads of radicalism and technology”

China is fully aware that it cannot dislodge the United States from the Middle East even with its burgeoning military capabilities, but that does not mean that China will ease up her strategic blueprint to unsettle the United States’ regional hegemonic control of the vital energy resources critically important for China’s strategic and political rise.

China unlike East Asia, views the Middle East Region as a springboard which can facilitate China’s grasping the superpower status by an intrusive strategic and military presence facilitated by Middle East nations resentment of United States unbridled control of the Region. China perceives that Arab nations and others in the Middle East look upon a ‘rising China’ as a strategic insurance against United States as a countervailing Power, or failing that as an important ‘political leverage’ that can be used by them to withstand United States pressures.

This predominant feeling is best captured by the observations of a noted Egyptian analyst who states that: “The Arab World is still weeping for the golden dawn of the Cold War”. Contemporarily, it seems that this Region is expecting that China would provide an opposing pole against the United States in the Middle East and that the Middle East is ripe for a United States-China Cold War.

In the coming years in the global power games, one can expect China to increase her footholds and her strategic footprints in the Middle East Region far more expansively to strategically undercut United States strategic control of the Middle East Region. It needs to be emphasized that China has carved out a sizeable line-up of major powers in her favor by use of her ‘soft power’ and supplies of missiles arsenals to countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran and others.

Lately China introduced a new element of use of ‘hard power’ ( symbolic demonstration) by drawing in Turkey into joint air force exercises conducted in Turkish air- space with these Chinese Air Force fighter planes refueling stop-overs at Pakistani and Iranian air-bases.

This Paper intends to examine the following related issues to China’s strategic undercutting of the United States in the Middle East:

  • China’s Upsurge in Forging a Substantial Strategic Presence in the Middle East: China’s Strategic Ambitions and the Geopolitical Facilitators
  • Pakistan as a Force-Multiplier in China’s Growing Enlargement of Strategic Presence in the Gulf Region of the Middle East: Perspectives
  • China: Will it Strategically and Militarily Confront the United States in the Event of a Middle East Showdown?
  • United States Options in the Middle East

China’s Upsurge in Forging a Substantial Strategic Presence in the Middle East: China’s Strategic Ambitions and the Geopolitical Facilitators

China’s upsurge in forging a substantial strategic presence in the Middle East is a follow-up of the gains it has made in incrementally expanding its strategic presence over the last 20-25 years. China’s pattern established so far has focused on weaning away strong US-allies in the Region like Saudi Arabia and reinforcing the military capabilities of nations and entities opposed to the United States like Iran, Libya, the Lebanon armed militias and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

The sinister overtones of China establishing its strategic footprints in the Middle East were manifested in China supplying long range ballistic missile ( IRBMs ) directly and by proxy through North Korea to Saudi Arabia and Iran and giving access to nuclear weapons technology of Chinese-origin through Pakistan to Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran.

Interwoven into these strategic moves by China has been a wide array of economic and trade linkages which China has crafted over the years which strengthen the political and economic dependency of Middle East nations on China.

The deductions that need to be recorded from the above pattern are as follows:

  • China’s IRBMs supplies, access to Chinese-origin nuclear weapons technology. and sizeable supplies of conventional weapons supplies to a highly volatile region like the Middle East indicate that China is not a responsible stakeholder in Middle East security and stability. The Middle East is a strategic pawn of China in its global tussle with the United States.
  • The charge against China gets further aggravated that China had no compunction in arming known regional military rivals like Saudi Arabia and Iran and thereby further aggravating regional flashpoints and tensions.
  • China had no compunction in strong military linkages with Israel which was hated in the Middle East by both Arab and non-Arab Muslim states.

China’s current upsurge in forging a substantial presence in the Middle East Region needs to be understood in the context of China’s strategic ambitions which are:

  • Constrained in East Asia by United States supremacy, China perceives that despite United States hegemonic (Chinese perceptions) hold in the Middle East, the Middle East offers China prospects of establishing a substantial strategic presence in the Region.
  • China’s strategic ambitions to emerge as a global superpower can be facilitated by the Middle East nations as the Middle East today looms large as the centre of strategic gravity in the global strategic calculus.
  • China perceives that as opposed to Russia with limited economic resources, China is better placed to emerge as the alternative power in the United States and fill the strategic vacuum that may ensue if it exits Afghanistan. With a cascading deleterious effect on the Gulf Region.
  • China’s strategic calculations would conclude that in terms of China’s power projection for a greater global role the Middle East Region provides a fertile springboard for the same.

The geopolitical factors facilitating China’s strategic upsurge in the Middle East can be attributed to the following:

  • The Middle East nations are strategically inclined to welcome a Chinese strategic embrace impelled by the desire to find in China a countervailing power to the United States.
  • The Middle East nations feel that even if China cannot provide countervailing power against the United States directly, China can still provide strong leverages to Middle East nations to withstand United States pressures on conflictual issues.
  • Geopolitically China and the Middle East have convergent perspectives that United States global power and sustainability is on the wane after the events in Afghanistan and that opens avenues for both of them to move closer.

China today stands backed strongly by three Muslim nations in this part of the world namely Saudi Arabia. Iran and Pakistan, two of whom are located on either side of the Gulf and the third Pakistan, on the Eastern flank of the strategic Straits of Hormuz All three can be said to be instrumental in paving the way for China’s greater strategic foothold in the Middle East.

Pakistan as a Force Multiplier in China’s Growing Enlargement of Strategic Presence in the Gulf Region of the Middle East: Perspectives

Pakistan’s insidious role in furthering China’s strategic presence in the Gulf Region more specifically has been little noticed or commented upon by the global community. Pakistan has been a strategic ally and a loyal foot-soldier of furthering China’s strategic designs in Greater South West Asia which includes the Gulf Region.

One can list four strategic entanglements of Pakistan with China which greatly facilitate China’s designs to strategically undercut the United States in the Middle East. These are:

  • Gwadar Naval Base access to China for naval presence in the Indian Ocean, North Arabian Sea and The Gulf.
  • The Karakoram Corridor being provided to China by Pakistan integrating the existing Karakoram Highway linking Pakistan and China with planned road links and railway lines linking China with Gwadar
  • Pakistan aiming for restoration of a Pak-friendly and China-friendly Taliban regime in Afghanistan so that the vulnerabilities of the above two to US military actions is liquidated.
  • Pakistan has a Chinese-origin nuclear weapons technology and thereby generating grave risks for United States overall security.

The significant point to note is that Pakistan is providing land-access and air-access to China to touch base in the Middle East and Gwadar in Pakistan is a strategic-enabler for a Chinese naval presence in the Gulf Region. It is also significant that even Iran unlike Pakistan has yet to provide use of its naval bases to China.

All of the above would emerge as force-multipliers for China, courtesy the Pakistan Army, to strategically undercut the United States embedment in the Gulf and the Middle East.

China: Will it Strategically Confront the United States in the Event of a Middle East Military Showdown?

Noted American strategic analysts have rightly opined that China’s strategy against the United States in the Middle East would revolve around the principles of “neither peace nor war” and further that “China will avoid both partnership and direct confrontation with the United States”.

Taking off from the above summations, one can safely assert that in the churning dynamics of the Middle East, China would ever be alert to ambush and undercut the United States strategically in this vital region, crucial for United States strategic interests.

The foremost recent example of this is China’s strategic cozying-up to Turkey at a moment when Turkey stands disillusioned with the West and the United States. Take the case of the Iranian nuclear program which is a bugbear to the United States where Russia has veered around to side with the United States, but China is holding out in favor of Iran.

The Middle East in the coming years is likely to witness an intensified “Cold War” by China to strategically undercut the United States in the Middle East. China is cashing in on the Middle East nations led by Saudi Arabia loosening their linkages with the United States.

Finally, one would like to assert that even in the event of any remote eventuality of a showdown; China would be reluctant to enter into any military conflict with the United States over the Middle East.

Contrarily, China would not hesitate to enter into an armed conflict with the United States over any US military intervention in Pakistan. Without Pakistan as a loyal foot-soldier of China’s Grand Strategy in the Middle East and the Islamic World, the entire Chinese blueprint for undercutting the United States in the Middle East would unravel and China gets reduced to strategic confinement in East Asia.

United States Options in the Middle East

In brief outline, United States must attempt to incorporate the following major ingredients in its Middle East policy formulations to checkmate China’s strategic designs:

  1. Israel should not be pressured to forego its vital national security interests impacting on its survival in the cause of a Greater Middle East Peace. Peace in the Middle East is not possible until leading Arab countries recognize Israel as a sovereign State within its present boundaries.
  2. Turkey must be wooed and won over again by the West and the United States from its present strategy more prompted by its disillusionment with European opposition to its membership of the European Union. Turkey is the natural regional power of the Middle East and the United States should attempt to give allowances for its yearnings.
  3. Iran was once a staunch ally of the United States. Attempts should be made to win it over once again despite any Saudi Arabian pressures on the United States to the contrary.
  4. Russia needs to be co-opted by the United States into a workable partnership for strategic management of the Middle East.
  5. Pakistan which is not only a regional spoiler state in South Asia has now emerged as “The Chinese Pitch-Fork” to assist China’s undercutting the United States strategically in this region. The United States urgently needs to “reset” its policy buttons on Pakistan..
  6. The United States at no cost should strategically exit from Afghanistan. An effective and strong United States embedment in Afghanistan would foil and pre-empt China’s strategy to undercut United States strategically in the Middle East.

Finally, its is my feeling that the United States out of deference to Pakistan Army’s sensitivities has in the past decade or so, in a very subtle manner motivated India to “Look East”. The time has now come for the United States to encourage India to “Look West’ towards a greater role in the Middle East.

China’s ‘soft power’ strategy in the Middle East can be matched more effectively by India’s matching ‘soft power’ approaches in the Middle East. India has a longer historical, economic and cultural links with the Middle East than China. Ironically, India gave China an access to the Middle East at the Bandung Non-Aligned Nati- heartedness.

Concluding Observations

In China’s Grand Strategy to grab superpower status, the Middle East Region figures as the “master-key” where China could reasonably expect to displace the United States predominance as compared to East Asia.

China so far has relied on making strategic headway in the Middle East by an imaginative use of ‘soft power’ and by cashing –in on grudges of Middle East nations towards the United States However, what is now unfolding in China’s strategy to undercut the United States in the Middle East strategically, is a muted use of ‘hard power’ ingredients too.

The United States would be well advised to divert its focus from a Middle East Peace Settlement to that of exploring urgently policy options that would enable the United States to pre-empt China from strategically under-cutting the United States in the Middle East.

The United States needs to recognize that a Middle East Peace Settlement is not on the horizon as the Middle East nations perceive the United States as a waning power in the face of China’s rising power. The United States need s to reset this misperception right.

The United States ‘master-key’ to foil China’s strategic undercutting of the United States in the Middle East lies in a sustained and effective political and military embedment in Afghanistan.

*Suman Sharma is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group

The post China Strategically Undercutting US In Middle East – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Singapore’s Citizen Army: Bridging The Civil-Military Praxis – OpEd

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Running against the grain of contemporary all-volunteer militaries, the Singapore Armed Forces remains predominately a national service conscript force. The citizen-soldier model must be retained to bind Singapore’s military and its society.

By Ong Wei Chong*

Singapore’s citizen-based armed forces has served the nation’s security needs well. More importantly, it has become a social cohesive that has bonded Singaporeans from all walks of life and bridged the civil-military divide that is seen in certain nations with all-volunteer militaries. It would be prudent for the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) to resist any move to establish the all-volunteer professional force structure adopted by virtually all of the West’s militaries, including those that are smaller than the SAF.

As Singaporeans are encouraged to ‘live our dreams and fly our flag’, they should also take the opportunity to reflect upon possible cleavages which, left unchecked, might develop into fault lines that undermine the security, integrity and existence of Singapore as a nation state. One such potential threat is the development of a rift between the values of a nation’s military and its society – a danger that could be magnified in a small city state such as Singapore.

Military at War and Nation at Mall

The disconnect between a nation’s military and its citizens is seen in the United States, where the abandonment of America’s citizen army tradition after the Vietnam War created an all-volunteer force “tenuously linked to American society”, according to Andrew Bacevich, a retired US Army Colonel and Professor of History and International Relations at Boston University. As a consequence, Bacevich said, the Pentagon’s ‘Long War’ was no longer America’s war but belonged “exclusively to the troops” – the soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines serving in Afghanistan, summed up by the one-liner: “The Marine Corps is at war, America is at the mall.”

Lending his weight to the issue, Paul Yingling, a Colonel in the US Army, called for a return to a conscript military and popular participation in national security decisions. Yingling reasoned that “moral exhortations for citizens to care more deeply about national defence are insufficient. Unless the public…have some personal stake in decisions of war and peace, they cannot and will not provide adequate oversight in these profound choices”. Like Bacevich, Yingling believes that the absence of citizen soldiers and conscripts from the US military system has severely undermined American civil-military relations and imperilled US national security.

SAF Operations Abroad

As part of the multinational effort to restore stability to Iraq, 998 SAF personnel were deployed in Operation Blue Orchid in and around the Iraqi theatre from 2003 to 2008. The SAF presence in Afghanistan to date has included provincial reconstruction teams, medical teams, a weapon-locating radar team, an unmanned aerial vehicle task group, aerial refuelling aircraft team and artillery trainers. The technicality that Singapore is not at war does not disguise the fact that SAF personnel are essentially operating in a war zone.

Given the increasing participation of the SAF in overseas missions (including NSmen reservist volunteers), a similar divide on the lines of ‘SAF is at war, Singapore is at Orchard Road malls” could develop if Singaporeans fail to understand the rationale of these missions and their importance to Singapore’s national security. It therefore behoves every Singaporean father, brother and son to be socialised into the shared experience of citizen military service to ensure and preserve the link between the citizen and the SAF.

Even as the SAF continues to train, network and operate abroad, it is the perceived relevance of SAF to the lives of Singaporeans that must be highlighted. Without the umbilical cord that binds the SAF and its citizen soldier sons, the relationship between the SAF and Singapore society could become as parlous as the state of contemporary American civil-military relations.

Every Citizen Soldier Matters

The Advisory Council on Community Relations in Defence (ACCORD) has done much in recognising the important role of Singapore’s citizen soldiers particularly in the form of monetary rewards and welfare provisions. Nonetheless, more can be done in using the skills of NSmen to greater operational effect. Recent military history suggests that public opinion is crucial to the success of any overseas or even localised mission. Hence, NSmen with significant experience in the media industry should be identified and posted to units that deal with media operations (MO), information operations (IO), Psychological Operations (Psyops) and civil-military relations.

Socialised in the military for two years of their lives, these NSmen would be attuned to the nuanced needs of the SAF. In-camp trainings would provide the opportunity for these media operators to share best practices in the civilian world with their professional military counterparts and operationalise those best practices. More importantly, in giving them a greater role in waging battles of perception, the SAF will be sending a clear message that it recognises the individual skills of every citizen soldier.

There are other non-combat skill sets of our citizen soldiers that are pertinent to the contemporary security environment. To accord them greater recognition not just in monetary terms but greater operational responsibility is to tell our citizen soldiers that they really matter. In so doing, the nation will maintain the sinews that bind our citizen soldiers, the SAF and society.

Singapore can ill-afford to allow a rift to develop between the values of the SAF and the society it protects. To ensure the continued connection between the military and society, our citizen soldiers must always be the heart and soul of the SAF. Come this National Day, when Singaporeans think about what it means to be Singaporean, National Service will inevitably be there with Chicken Rice and Singlish. Nonetheless, we must be ever watchful for any telltale signs of the divide that ‘SAF is atwar, Singapore is at the Orchard Road malls’ developing.

*Ong Weichong is Associate Research Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He is attached to the Military Transformations Programme at the school’s constituent unit, the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies. He is also a Doctoral Candidate with the Centre for the Study of War, State and Society, University of Exeter, UK.

The post Singapore’s Citizen Army: Bridging The Civil-Military Praxis – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

South Africa Minister Reiterates No Bribe Paid To FIFA

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South Africa’s Sport and Recreation Minister Fikile Mbalula says he is outraged by continued media reports claiming that South Africa paid a $10 million bribe to secure the rights to host the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

This comes after Sunday papers alleged that Port Elizabeth Mayor and South African Football Association (Safa) President Danny Jordaan confirmed that the Local Organising Committee made a payment of $10 million in 2008, but insisted it was not a bribe.

“We remain concerned at the ongoing media speculation which only plays into the hands of those whose objective is to tarnish the good name and integrity of our country.

“We reject these falsehoods with the contempt they deserve. As a government and people of South Africa we are enjoined to combat such propaganda against our country.

“Any inferences drawn from the statements attributed to Dr Danny Jordaan which seeks to insinuate that our position is contradictory is therefore not only misleading but mischievous at best.

“We reaffirm our position that no public funds have been utilised to pay any bribe or to commit any unlawful acts,” he said.

The Sunday papers quoted Jordaan as saying: “The payment was South Africa’s contribution towards Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football’s (CONCACAF) football development fund”.

Minister Mbalula reiterated that the South African government and the Local Organising Committee have not expended any public funds in the amount of $10 million towards bribery of anyone to secure the rights to host the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

“Accordingly, we appeal to all our people, media included to desist from speculating on names of individuals who may or may not be implicated in the allegations.

“Equally, we call on all those involved in the bidding and hosting of the 2010 FIFA World Cup to avoid expressing comments that can only play into the hands of those who seek to perpetuate negative stereotypes against South Africa in particular and Africa in general.

“Whatever the motive of those involved, nothing can detract from the fact that the hosting by South Africa of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, the first on the African continent, remains one of the most beautiful spectacles and successful tournaments the world has ever witnessed in FIFA’s history,” he said.

The Minister further said: “We frown upon any insinuations made in the indictment by the United States of America authorities that suggest that the South African government or any of its citizens have been involved in any wrongdoing without substantiating the allegations, let alone naming the alleged co-conspirators.

“We refuse to allow the reputation of our Republic to be tarnished unduly without affording the Republic and its citizens an opportunity to respond to any allegations made. We view this as an attack on our sovereignty,” he said.

Two separate investigations are being carried out by the American and Swiss authorities for alleged rampant and long-running corruption within FIFA, with several top officials arrested and accused by US investigators of taking tens of millions of dollars in bribes.

The post South Africa Minister Reiterates No Bribe Paid To FIFA appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Shining A Light On Overcriminalization – Analysis

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By Jordan Richardson*

Overcriminalization—the overuse or misuse of the criminal law to address societal problems—is a troubling phenomenon that touches every segment of society.[1] It manifests itself in a variety of ways, including overly broad definitions of criminal acts, excessively harsh sentencing, and criminal sanctions for simple mistakes or accidents under a theory of strict liability.[2]

However, overcriminalization has a more tangible aspect beyond legislation and legal theory: For every problematic law or criminal procedure, there is a victim with a story to tell. Those victims include three fishermen in Florida who were sentenced to over six years in prison for importing lobsters packed in plastic rather than paper,[3] a North Carolina man who was jailed for 45 days for selling hot dogs without a license,[4] and an autistic teenager from Pennsylvania who was threatened with wiretapping charges after he recorded being bullied in school by his classmates.[5] American citizens all too often find themselves trapped by the very system that they assumed existed for their protection and prosecuted for crimes that most people would not even recognize as criminal offenses.

The Heritage Foundation has made it a priority to report instances of overcriminalization and provide solutions to the root causes of this issue. One of the more effective ways to explain the importance of reform is by telling the stories of people who have been hurt by abuse of the criminal law.[6] It is common to discuss changes in the system in terms of legislation or arcane legal concepts, but seeing the human side of overcriminalization is much more powerful.

Public Pressure

Reporting stories of people who have been needlessly and callously caught up in the criminal justice system has a two-fold benefit: First, it informs the public of the serious nature of overcriminalization and how it could equally harm them too; second, it exposes public officials and law enforcement officers who engage in misbehavior or exercise terrible judgment. The latter effect, especially, could help both to alter outcomes for individuals who are victimized by overcriminalization and to provide a catalyst for change.

During the past year, The Heritage Foundation has recounted the stories of people who were victims of overcriminalization. In several of these cases, positive outcomes ensued, in all likelihood as a result of the public ridicule that such injustices received. Although there is no quantifiable method to determine whether media pressure was the deciding factor that influenced public officials to reverse course after pursuing charges or fines against these individuals, it is wise to heed former Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis’s wisdom: “Publicity is justly commended as a remedy for social and industrial diseases. Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants; electric light the most efficient policeman.”[7]

The following examples are illustrative:

  • Lazaro Estrada was arrested and charged with obstruction of justice for simply filming a Miami police officer who arrested his friend.[8] Despite the fact that citizens should be presumptively free under the First Amendment to film officers in public places,[9] Estrada faced significant punishment for turning on his camera. After his video of the incident went viral, the charges against Estrada were dropped.
  • Shaneen Allen, a single mother from Pennsylvania, was arrested after being pulled over for a traffic violation and the officer was informed that she had a handgun in her car.[10] Allen legally registered the gun in her home state and mistakenly assumed that it was legal for her to travel with it for protection across state lines. Her mistake could have sent her to prison for three years. After immense media pressure, the prosecutor allowed Allen to enter a diversion program, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie subsequently pardoned her.
  • Arnold Abbott, a 90-year-old charity worker from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, was threatened with arrest and a $500 fine for feeding homeless people in the local city park.[11] A city ordinance required Abbott to comply with strict food handling and facility regulations—a mandate that would have made it nearly impossible to feed hungry people. Publicity from major news outlets soon prompted city officials to allow Abbott to continue his charitable works.

Examples of government overreach extend beyond criminal charges. In several instances, local governments have attempted to enforce inapplicable or obscure regulations that essentially prohibit ordinary behavior.

  • Spencer Collins, a nine-year-old boy from Leawood, Kansas, built a miniature library box in his front yard as a Mother’s Day gift. Local authorities levied a $500 fine against Spencer’s family and threatened to tear down the library because the box supposedly violated an ordinance against freestanding structures. Public outrage forced the city to reconsider, and the ordinance was amended to allow citizens to build little libraries.[12]
  • Tiffany Miranda, a 10-year-old girl who suffers from a serious and incurable disease called Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, received her very own playground from the Make-A-Wish Foundation. The city government of Santa Fe Springs, California, ordered Tiffany’s parents to tear down the playground because, in their estimation, it was a “public nuisance.” After facing an intense media backlash for trying to crush the dreams of a little girl with a serious illness, city officials quickly backtracked and allowed the playground to stay.[13]

Stories like these illustrate both the human cost of overcriminalization and the absurd but all too real instances of governmental overreach in general. In all of the cases mentioned here, media and news reports informed the public about how law enforcement officials were unfairly or wrongly targeting their fellow citizens. As a result, public pressure was the catalyst to convince the authorities to reverse course. Awareness precedes reform.

Reform Is Needed

The sobering reality of overcriminalization is that there are many more stories of victims that have not received media attention. Although we should applaud the decision of public officials who eventually recognized that they had overstepped their authority and reversed course, there is still much more to be done. Shaneen Allen, the single mother who faced three years in prison, now has her life back after receiving a pardon from a governor, but not everyone is so fortunate as to have a high-level official intervene in his or her case. Many voices go unheard.

If overcriminalization is left unchecked, it will continue to be a problem. Our Founders warned us long ago about the dangers of an expansive legal system that arbitrarily creates and enforces numerous criminal laws. James Madison, writing in the Federalist Papers, stated:

It will be of little avail to the people, that the laws are made by men of their own choice, if the laws be so voluminous that they cannot be read, or so incoherent that they cannot be understood; if they be repealed or revised before they are promulgated, or undergo such incessant changes that no man, who knows what the law is to-day, can guess what it will be to-morrow. Law is defined to be a rule of action; but how can that be a rule, which is little known, and less fixed?[14]

When ordinary people are turned into criminals for engaging in morally blameless behavior, the legitimacy of the justice system is undermined. Serious reform is essential.

Conclusion

Criminal justice reform is about more than policy debates in Congress or legal procedure; it is about how the lives and fortunes of ordinary Americans are threatened by abuse of the law. The criminal justice reform movement should focus on telling the stories of those who are affected by an overly zealous government and the excessive power of the state.

Only by identifying the problem and highlighting why it matters will any meaningful change take place. Overcriminalization is not an easy problem to solve, but it is one that demands our attention.

About the author:
*Jordan Richardson
is a former Visiting Legal Fellow in the Edwin Meese III Center for Legal and Judicial Studies at The Heritage Foundation.

Source:
This article was published by The Heritage Foundation.

Notes:
[1] See, for example, Jordan Richardson, “You Could Break the Law and Not Even Know It: Why Overcriminalization Is Everyone’s Problem and How to Fix It,” The Heritage Foundation, The Insider, Winter 2015, p. 32, http://insideronline.org/archives/2015/Winter/InsiderArticle5.pdf.

[2] See generally Paul J. Larkin, Jr., “The Extent of America’s Overcriminalization Problem,” Heritage Foundation Legal Memorandum No. 121, May 9, 2014, http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2014/pdf/LM121.pdf.

[3] Brian W. Walsh, “The Worst Thing that Anybody Can Do to You Is Take Away Your Freedom,” The Daily Signal, August 8, 2011, http://dailysignal.com/2011/08/08/the-worst-thing-that-anybody-can-do-to-you-is-take-away-your-freedom/.

[4] Evan Bernick, “‘I Know My Rights’: Woman Jailed After Filming Traffic Stop,” The Daily Signal, February 22, 2014, http://dailysignal.com/2014/02/22/know-rights-woman-jailed-filming-traffic-stop/.

[5] Evan Bernick, “The Crime of Being Bullied: 15-Year-Old Special Needs Student Convicted of Disorderly Conduct for Recording Evidence of Bullying,” The Daily Signal, April 15, 2014, http://dailysignal.com/2014/04/15/crime-bullied-15-year-old-special-needs-student-convicted-disorderly-conduct-recording-evidence-bullying/.

[6] Evan Bernick, “‘The Best of Disinfectants’: Using Publicity to Fight Overcriminalization,” Heritage Foundation Issue Brief No. 4120, January 8, 2014, http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2014/pdf/IB4120.pdf.

[7] Louis Brandeis, “What Publicity Can Do,” Harper’s Weekly, Vol. 8 (December 13, 1913).

[8] Evan Bernick, “‘What Did I Do Wrong?’ (Another) Floridian Arrested for Exercising First Amendment Right to Film Police in Public,” The Daily Signal, May 5, 2014, http://dailysignal.com/2014/05/05/wrong-another-floridian-arrested-exercising-first-amendment-right-film-police-public/.

[9] Evan Bernick & Paul J. Larkin, Jr., “Filming the Watchmen: Why the First Amendment Protects Your Right to Film the Police in Public Places,” Heritage Foundation Legal Memorandum No. 127, June 12, 2014, http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2014/pdf/LM127.pdf.

[10] Jordan Richardson, “Single Mother Arrested for Carrying Gun to Protect Her Children,” The Daily Signal, July 22, 2014, http://dailysignal.com/2014/07/22/single-mother-arrested-carrying-gun-protect-children/.

[11] Jordan Richardson, “Pastor Charged with Criminal Penalty for Feeding the Homeless,” The Daily Signal, November 6, 2014, http://dailysignal.com/2014/11/06/pastor-charged-criminal-penalty-feeding-homeless/.

[12] Jordan Richardson, “Young Boy Takes on City Council…and Wins,” The Daily Signal, July 14, 2014, http://dailysignal.com/2014/07/14/young-boy-takes-city-counciland-wins/.

[13] Jordan Richardson, “Unbelievable: City Demands Girl Tear Down Her Playground…That She Received from Make-A-Wish Foundation,” The Daily Signal, October 10, 2014, http://dailysignal.com/2014/10/10/unbelievable-city-demands-girl-tear-playground-received-make-wish-foundation/.

[14] The Federalist No. 62, in The Federalist Papers, ed. Clinton Rossiter (New York: New American Library, 1961), p. 367.

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Blatter To Quit As FIFA President

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Sepp Blatter has said he will resign as president of football’s governing body, FIFA, at an extraordinary congress of the organization. The sensational announcement comes just four days after Blatter was reelected as FIFA boss for a fifth term.

Jordan’s Prince Ali bin al-Hussein, who gave in to Blatter during the vote last Friday, will run in the new FIFA election for president.

“As for new elections, Prince Ali is ready,” Sala Sabra, vice-president of the Jordanian football federation which the prince heads up, told AFP. “Prince Ali is ready to take over as FIFA head at any moment, should they ask him.”

Blatter, who took charge of world football in 1998, said he would be carrying out the duties of FIFA president until the extraordinary congress.

“I cherish FIFA most of all and always try to do the best for football and the organization,” Blatter said at a press conference in Switzerland. “I decided that I should keep running in elections. The election now is over, but the challenges remain. FIFA needs restructuring, the FIFA delegates have given me the mandate. But it is not supported by other members of FIFA, fans, clubs. Those who inspire FIFA like we do.Therefore, I ask to convene an extraordinary congress as soon as possible to elect my successor.”

The new congress will take place between December 2015 and March 2016, the chairman of FIFA’s audit and compliance committee, Domenico Scala, has said. He has taken the floor after Blatter.

The fact that he won’t be running in the election will allow him to “focus on driving far-reaching, fundamental reforms that transcend our previous efforts,” Blatter said.

He said that his team had been trying to implement administrative reforms in FIFA “for years,” adding that he has now come to realization that those efforts weren’t enough.

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US-GCC Summit: More Hype Than Substance – Analysis

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By Ranjit Gupta*

On 17 April, the White House announced US President Barack Obama’s invite to GCC monarchs for a summit on from 13-14 May to reassure the Saudi Arabia-led GCC bloc about the nuclear framework agreement with Iran and against the backdrop of the then three-week-old war against Yemen embarked upon by Saudi Arabia and its GCC allies without consultation with the US. Reflecting the widespread sentiment amongst GCC governments, a senior Arab diplomat had said, “We don’t have to ask America’s permission… we won’t wait for America to tell us what to do.”

GCC expectations were well summed up by the Ambassador of the UAE Youssef Al Otaiba who, on 7 May, said in Washington that, “We are looking for (some form of) security guarantee given the behavior of Iran in the region. In the past, we have survived with a gentleman’s agreement with the United States about security … I think today we need something in writing. We need something institutionalized.”

On 7 May, US Secretary of State John Kerry met King Salman; on 8 May the US announced fixing the King’s special meeting with President Obama at the White House. On 10 May Saudi Arabia announced the cancellation of the King’s visit. With Bahrain now under complete Saudi tutelage, Bahrain’s king preferred to go to London to attend the derbies. Only the Emirs of Kuwait and Qatar went, though the latter attended the derbies in London too. The rulers of Oman and the UAE could not attend due to genuine health reasons. Two rising stars, the Crown Prince, and Deputy Crown Prince – who seems to be running the war in Yemen – represented Saudi Arabia. All this was a strong public manifestation of the growing Saudi/UAE exasperation with US policies towards the region, particularly in the wake of the so-called Arab Spring.

What did the GCC countries actually get? Some extracts from the lengthy Joint Communiqué and a lengthier Annexe provide an answer:

“The United States is prepared to work jointly with the GCC states to deter and confront an external threat to any GCC state’s territorial integrity that is inconsistent with the UN Charter…. to determine urgently what action may be appropriate, using the means at our collective disposal, including the potential use of military force, for the defense of our GCC partners”. The US also agreed to support GCC countries “to counter Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region.” These statements, the strongest language in the Joint Communique, can hardly be construed as the US “ironclad commitment” that President Obama spoke of as a Summit outcome; particularly as another of his comments clarified that “the purpose of security cooperation is not to perpetuate any long-term confrontation with Iran or even to marginalise Iran.”

The US will be particularly pleased about paragraphs: “The United States and GCC member states also affirmed their strong support for the efforts of the P5+1 to reach a deal with Iran by June 30, 2015, that would verifiably ensure that Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon, noting that such a deal would represent a significant contribution to regional security…. At the same time, the United States and GCC member states reaffirmed their willingness to develop normalized relations with Iran should it cease its destabilizing activities and their belief that such relations would contribute to regional security….”. And, “With regard to Yemen, both the United States and GCC member states underscored the imperative of collective efforts to counter Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula, and emphasized the need to rapidly shift from military operations to a political process…..(there is) a shared recognition that there is no military solution to the regions’ civil conflicts, and that they can only be resolved through political and peaceful means…”

However, these sentiments are likely to remain mere aspirations as Saudi Arabia resumed its intensive bombing across Yemen within minutes of the conclusion of the five-day ceasefire. If anything, the intensity of the bombing has been steadily increasing, inflicting greater casualties, causing ever increasing damage to the already weak infrastructure and displacement of increasing numbers of people, already in the thousands; all of this is going to engender long-term bitterness, even enmity towards Saudi Arabia. The Houthis remain undaunted. Saudi Arabia cannot succeed in reinstalling the Al-Hadi administration through this approach. Meanwhile, al Qaeda is gaining ground by the day.

Frankly, the only elements of the joint communiqué that could be implemented soon are those related to the greatly expanded supply of weapons, and the installation of a GCC-wide Ballistic Missile Early Warning System. In his first term, the Obama administration agreed to sell over $64 billion in arms and defence services to the GCC countries with almost three-quarters of that going to Saudi Arabia. New offers worth nearly $15 billion were made to Riyadh in 2014 and 2015. Now, even more weapons will be made available. The US military-industrial complex is celebrating.

Thus, the summit ended with the US coming out a winner, Iran not losing anything and little for the GCC countries beyond lots more weapons. Saudi Arabia’s new assertiveness will increase in the short term as paranoia and pique continue to override rationality; President Obama will persist with his top foreign policy priority, a deal with Iran; the increasing misery of the peoples of the region will continue unabated; and prospects for meaningful political processes to end conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Yemen in the foreseeable future remain bleak.

* Ranjit Gupta
Distinguished Fellow, IPCS, former Indian Ambassador to Yemen and Oman, and former Member, National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), India

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India-China: Current Status And Expectations For The Future – Analysis

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By Siwei Liu*

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid his first visit to China since assuming office, from 14-16 May 2015. The visit has a great significance for present-day Sino-India relations, and also has a high importance for the geostrategic dynamics of the Asia Pacific region. Both China and India should seize the opportunity to build closer bilateral ties and work together for the stability and prosperity of the Asia Pacific.

Modi’s three-day China trip created a positive and friendly atmosphere for Sino-India bilateral relations. Modi received a warm welcome form the Chinese government and people. It is worth mentioning that Modi had visited China twice before he took office and so he has some previous personal experience of interacting with Chinese people. For example, Modi opened his Sina Weibo, the popular Chinese microblog, saying “Hello China!” ahead of his visit. He successfully used social media to narrow the distance between him and Chinese people.

Modi’s first stop in China was Xi’an, a famous historic and cultural city in the country’s Shaanxi Province. Xi’an is the incumbent Chinese President Xi Jinping’s hometown. There is no denying that Modi’s Xi’an trip easily echoes Xi’s September 2014 India trip in which the latter travelled to Modi’s home state Gujarat before flying to the capital, New Delhi. Previously, President Xi had never welcomed a foreign leader in Xi’an. The extraordinary arrangement demonstrated that the two leaders want to strengthen their personal relations in the future.

It is worth mentioning that as an ancient Chinese capital, Xi’an has an important link for cultural and economic interactions between China and India. So choosing Xi’ an as Modi’s first stop in China also demonstrated the two sides purposely emphasise their cultural exchange and economic cooperation.

Modi’s cultural diplomacy was indeed impressive. In Xi’an, Modi not only visited the Da Ci’en Temple and the Wild Goose Pagoda – built in commemoration of the Buddhist monk, Xuan Zang, and his efforts to popularise Buddhism in China – but also visited the famous Terracotta Warriors and Daxingshan Temple. In Beijing and Shanghai too, there were many cultural and educational exchange activities in Modi’s itinerary. They included attending the Yoga-Taichi demonstration event; addressing students at Tsinghua University; and participating in the opening ceremony of the Center for Gandhian and Indian Studies at Fudan University.

Doubtlessly, Modi’s attendances in these activities were welcomed in China. The Chinese media and the Chinese people were positive in their views of Modi’s visit.

Modi’s China visit has had fruitful results. Twenty-four agreements were signed during the visit. Both sides emphasised their cooperation in various fields, ranging from cultural and educational exchange to trade and investment. Additionally, Indian and Chinese companies inked 21 agreements worth $22 billion during the India-China Business Forum in Shanghai. Both sides also agreed to boost increased cooperation between Chinese provinces and Indian state governments and inked agreements towards the establishment of sister-state/province partnership between Karnataka and Sichuan, and sister-city relationships between Aurangabad-Dunhuang, Chennai-Chongqing and Hyderabad-Qingdao.

Predictably, these agreements will help deepening the bilateral and will benefit local communities as well.

Additionally, Modi announced a new electronic visa scheme for Chinese nationals in his speech at Tsinghua University. Obviously, China appreciated Modi’s decision, though the e-visa decision had not figured in the aforementioned 24 agreements. If Modi’s promise is kept, it will help enhance people-to-people ties.

Admittedly, Modi’s visit has begun a new era in bilateral relations, but the fact that the two sides have different interests and trust deficits on some issues could be neglected. In recent years, the increasing geopolitical competition between the two nations is apparent. India has concerns over China’s growing influence in South Asia and the India Ocean and the Chinese strategic community is concerned about Indian closer defence relations with US and Japan. Even in economic relations, the two nations have to deal with various challenges such as the potential energy competition and trade deficit. In addition, although the two sides have underlined enhancing border defence cooperation during this visit, their differences on border issues are still big.

Perhaps, national interests, competitions and trust deficit between New Delhi and Beijing cannot be resolved overnight; but given that India and China have common interests in various fields, there are possibilities for more cooperation between the two. In fact, many Asian experts and business leaders in both countries are positive in their views of a deeper cooperation between the two countries.

Modi’s visit has come at a very critical time, one that coincides with the rise of the two Asian giants – China and India – in a changing Asia-Pacific architecture. The visit has provided a good and positive platform for the two sides to promote the cooperation relations.

Both sides should recognise that pursuing a win-win approach to intensify cooperation is not only beneficial for the two countries, but also can contribute to regional stability, development and prosperity. If possible, the two sides should discuss more practical ways to deepen cooperation and perfect related-regime construction. For example, given that the two sides are likely to link the Chinese 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative with India’s Project Mausam and the Spice Route Project together, they need to undertake more dialogues and interactions both through Track-I and Track-II channels and let the other side know more details about projects.

* Siwei Liu
Assistant Researcher, Institute of South Asian Studies, Sichuan University, China

The post India-China: Current Status And Expectations For The Future – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Mi Figue, Mi Raisin: The Filipinos’ Culture Of Migration In Age Of Globalization – Analysis

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By Edwin S. Estrada*

Protesters marched in front of the Department of Foreign Affairs last year demanding the lifting of a deployment ban on overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) to war-torn Libya. One of the protesters’ placards read, “Ibalik kami sa Libya!”, which strongly underscores the sentiments of the Filipino migrant worker. While the government insists that deployment bans serve as protection of OFWs from the harsh realities of working in a volatile foreign security environment, perceived domestic realities of unemployment and hunger still weigh far more seriously in the minds of Filipinos than the prospect of facing war, calamities, and pestilence head on. How does one make sense of this plight?

Present-day migration and issues that surround it may only be understood and addressed more clearly by similarly understanding how the wheels of globalization have fuelled migration, particularly labor migration. Indeed, a closer look at labor migration and globalization reveals an intriguing connection that may offer insights on the persistence of Filipinos’ interest in looking for jobs abroad, and may even shed some light on what some analysts term as the Filipinos’ culture of migration.

The emergence of globalization has changed the dynamics of world economy. The economies of states have become interconnected and interdependent, reflecting a borderless world where interstate and interregional trade are important factors to a country’s economic development.

A consequence of this process of globalization is the increasing spatial mobility of people, which manifests in the growing number of migrant workers from developing countries, particularly the Philippines. The Commission on Filipinos Overseas (CFO) estimates that, as of 2011, more than 10 million Filipinos reside or work abroad, and they significantly contribute to the Philippine economy by way of foreign remittances. This vital role of overseas Filipinos makes them Mga Bagong Bayani (new heroes), according to Filipino officials. In fact, a new five-peso coin was minted last year as a tribute to the apparent heroism of OFWs, with the words Bagong Bayani prominently displayed under visual representations of cooks, engineers and domestic workers, among other professions. It is as if the government needs to constantly remind the Filipino consumer the value of OFWs to the country’s economy. To lionize OFWs as bagong bayani is to promote labor migration as something noble and heroic, and this may only make working abroad all the more enticing to Filipinos staying in the homeland.

The increasing number of OFWs and Filipinos who reside abroad is said to be a manifestation of a culture of migration, aided by the government’s facilitation of migration. Maruja M.B. Asis of the Migration Policy Institute succinctly describes the culture of migration in the Philippines as a phenomenon that began in the mid-1970s due to factors such as: political instability, a growing population, unemployment and low wages. In the book Cultures of Migration: The Global Nature of Contemporary Mobility by Jeffrey H. Cohen and Ibrahim Sirkeci, culture of migration pertains to cultural beliefs and social patterns that influence people to move.

This culture of migration carries with it a number of social and economic concerns. An increase in the number of Filipino migrant workers puts much pressure on the government to protect them particularly in receiving countries where there are physical risks, such as armed conflicts in the Middle East, and from physical abuse and exploitation. In 2011, a total of 26,273 OFWs were repatriated from high-risk countries such as Libya, Madagascar, and Saudi Arabia, where domestic workers have been particularly vulnerable to abuse and exploitation by their employers. In Syria, 5,174 OFWs were repatriated while almost 3,000 still remain as of January 2014.

Brain drain, another persistent labor migration issue, refers to the exodus of skilled human resources mainly to search for better economic conditions. According to Dr. Florian Alburo of the University of the Philippines School of Economics, brain drain shamelessly prevents the originating country from utilizing local talents for its own progress and development.*

While brain drain is a cause for concern among some migration policy analysts and policymakers, it does not seem to be taken seriously enough in the Philippines, if one were to look more deeply into the country’s migration policies. The country, being one of the major exporters of workers in the world, has established agencies that protect and empower OFWs, and is even party to international agreements promoting freer movement of migrant workers. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), of which the Philippines is a member, both want to liberalize interstate mobility of workers. Ironically the government is hesitant to admit it promotes labor migration as a policy for development. RA 8042, or the Migrant Workers and Overseas Filipinos Act of 1995, is illustrative of this point. It recognizes “the significant contribution of Filipino migrant workers to the national economy through their foreign exchange remittances,” but the State “does not promote overseas employment as a means to sustain economic growth and achieve national development.” However, the creation of institutional mechanisms such as the Philippine Overseas Employment Agency (POEA), which offers guidelines and services such as How to Hire Filipino Workers (for the foreign employer) and Online Pre-Employment Orientation Seminar (for Filipino job seekers), somehow belies the assertion that the country does not promote labor migration.

The Filipinos’ culture of migration can be described by the French idiom mi figue, mi raisin (half fig, half grape), which refers to something that is neither entirely good nor entirely bad. Its value dependent on how problems connected to it are addressed to facilitate national growth and development in a borderless world. Whether we like it or not, globalization is here to stay, and with it a culture of migration, whose lasting impact to the trajectory of the nation’s fate is undeniable.

Accepting this reality is important in forging labor migration policies that could adapt to the ever evolving interstate dynamics in the modern era. It could lead to a strategic national development policy that fully acknowledges the potential of OFWs to contribute beyond their remittances. This national strategy could include the institutionalization of a national technology-transfer program that empowers returning OFWs to build capacities of Filipinos back home through skills-sharing and, in a bolder policy stroke, exploration of the possibility of diaspora diplomacy, giving OFWs and Filipinos residing abroad a sense of accountability in nation-building.

In the midst of much discussion on globalization and the culture of migration that it cultivates, it is hoped that the Philippines would recognize the writing on the wall, maximize opportunities that could come with this culture of migration, minimize its costs and eventually realize the powerful possibilities it could bring.

*Although popular opinion asserts the reality of brain drain, the lack of any convincing statistics that clarify the supposed ill-effects of this phenomenon makes the issue open to debate.

About the author:
*Edwin S. Estrada is a Senior Foreign Affairs Research Specialist with the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies of the Foreign Service Institute. Mr. Estrada can be reached at estrada.edwin@gmail.com.

The views expressed in this publication are of the authors’ alone and do not reflect the official position of the Foreign Service Institute, the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Government of the Philippines.

Source:
This article was published by FSI

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Yemen: Houthis Left With One Option – OpEd

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By Osama Al Sharif

It has been more than two months since a Saudi Arabia- led Arab coalition intervened in Yemen in order to restore the legitimate government, force the Houthi militias and soldiers loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh to withdraw from key Yemeni cities and provinces and put an end to Iran’s meddling in that country’s affairs.

The air campaign has achieved some objectives but not all. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies were able to pass UN Security resolution number 2216, under Chapter 7, which gave the rebels few days to withdraw from the capital Sanaa and other cities, accept the outcome of the national dialogue that was achieved last year and join a political process to agree on the future of the country.

But the Houthi-Saleh alliance rejected the resolution and stepped up its attacks against Aden and other southern cities and provinces effectively dragging Yemen into a protracted civil war. It also boycotted a reconciliation meeting that took place in Riyadh last month. Meanwhile, the air campaign continued after a five-day humanitarian truce, which the rebels did not observe, and while the renegade militias continued to press with their assault, local resistance groups began to retaliate and were able to liberate some areas.

A new UN envoy to Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmad, has tried to hold a meeting of all Yemenis in Geneva. But President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has made it clear that the rebels must first accept and implement resolution 2216 before such a meeting could take place. Politically as well as militarily the conflict in Yemen is reaching a deadlock. Among the immediate objectives that Arab coalition was able to achieve was to cut off Iran’s supply lines to the Houthi rebels. The air strikes have hurt the rebels and loosened their grip over some areas, but they have not repulsed them or forced them to yield.

In the absence of a political formula to bring all parties to the negotiation table the Yemeni conflict will drag on for many months to come. The people of Yemen are paying a heavy price for the blind ambitions of both the Houthis and Saleh. The humanitarian cost has been enormous and UN organizations are warning of a catastrophe. The rebels have committed major war crimes in Aden, Taaz and Al Dale’. They have kidnapped journalists, human rights activists and opposition figures and used them as human shields.

As Ahmad tries to mediate between all parties involved, including Iran, in a bid to convene the Geneva conference, there are news that Oman has stepped in with its own initiative; holding a meeting between American, Houthi and Iranian officials at the request of the US. While Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government will not support such meetings, it is hoped that the Houthis will seek a political way out. If they accept to implement the UN resolution then the door will be open to hold a bigger conference in Geneva as soon as possible. If not then the Arab coalition has no option but to continue with its air campaign. It cannot afford to be seen as giving up on Yemen and its legitimate government. There are reports that a Houthi delegation has also traveled to Moscow to seek political support from the Kremlin.

After all is said and done the Houthis, who are still being viewed as part of the political landscape in Yemen, must decide that their gambit to take over the country will not work. Simply said Saudi Arabia is committed to restore the legitimate Yemeni government. They need to accept the UN resolution and end their partnership with the former president and his gang. In return they will receive certain assurances and will be encouraged to join an inclusive political process based primarily on the outcome of the national dialogue and the GCC initiative on Yemen.

They must also sever relations with Iran, whose interference in Arab affairs has become a major challenge for the Sunni world as sectarian wars rage in Iraq and Syria and threaten the stability of Lebanon. The fact that they are viewed as agents of Iran in Yemen has undermined their credibility.

One person who should not be exempted or given assurances should be the former president, whose role in encouraging the Houthis to take over the capital and derail the political process has caused death and destruction to the country. He must be brought to justice for the crimes that he has committed.

The coming few days will be crucial for the future of Yemen. Saudi Arabia and its allies continue to support a political solution to the Yemeni conflict. The Houthis will have to make their position clear away from the ploys of Saleh and his renegade generals. They can still be part of a political process that aims at ending the war and achieve reconciliation.

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The British Election: Some Possible International Consequences – Analysis

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Some initiatives of the new Conservative Government in the United Kingdom may have potentially negative national and international repercussions, including for Southeast Asia. Three prominent examples are highlighted.

By Paul Michael Hedges*

The British Conservative Party, under Prime Minister David Cameron, has had a surprise election win following their coalition with the Liberal Democrats and now wish to push ahead with some previously blocked initiatives. Some of these may have international impacts beyond the United Kingdom, three of which are of particular significance: a referendum on Europe; the British Bill of Rights; and, counter extremism policies.

It is too early to say what all of these will look like or their outcomes, therefore some broad predictions and indications are advanced.

Europe: In or Out?

The UK has often seen itself as somewhat different, and slightly divorced, from mainland Europe. Nevertheless, since 1973 it has been part of what is now the European Union (EU), but recent years have seen a growing Euroscepticism. In 1973, entry into Europe, although opposed by many, was done for several basic reasons: a united mainland Europe was starting to outpace the UK economically; the trading advantages of the Commonwealth were not as profitable as predicted; the so-called special relationship with the United States was not a major trading advantage.

While some aspects of the EU have not worked in the UK’s favour, it remains the main trading partner and most businesses seem keen to keep the relationship. Indeed, many international corporations are considering or have threatened relocating to the mainland if the UK leaves the EU.

Nevertheless, there is much popular suspicion, and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has grown from nothing to a substantial political force mainly based on its opposition to the EU and immigration. The Conservative Government has promised an in-out referendum by the end of 2017 and says its position will rest on planned renegotiations of treaty obligations.

Consequences of leaving Europe

The referendum is arguably a dangerous and populist move done to sway potential UKIP supporters and keep Conservative Eurosceptics on board. Exiting the EU will almost certainly do substantial economic damage. Eurosceptics argue that if the UK leaves it will be able to negotiate free trade agreements with the EU meaning that nothing will change; however, a more realist position suggests that the Germans and others would not forgive the UK for exiting and that such privileges would be withheld.

This question is also complicated by the clear Scottish desire to remain in Europe, and if the UK as a whole leaves then cries for a referendum on Scottish independence will return with renewed force, potentially splitting the country further.

British Rights or Human Rights?

Partly, unhappiness with Europe is a perception that British law is regularly overruled in favour of foreign criminals and terrorists by EU directives on Human Rights enforced through the Human Rights Act (HRA) of 1998. This is a perception fuelled by Eurosceptic politicians and elements of the media, whereas, as a piece of British legislation, the HRA operates within the remit of the national legal system.

Indeed, now cases where there are potential conflicts between British law and international Human Rights legislation – specifically the European Human Rights Convention of 1953 – can be handled by the UK Supreme Court rather than being passed to the European Court in Strasbourg. Under judicial review it may also raise issues where it seems the UK is not fulfilling its international obligations, but any changes are only at the discretion of parliament; a high profile case of this type concerned the UK government refusing prisoners the right to vote. Nevertheless, the Government wishes to repeal the HRA and introduce a British Bill of Rights.

The proposed British Bill of Rights will probably not substantially affect legal rulings because if it makes international Human Rights standards enforceable in British law it will essentially restate what already happens. It is, though, arguably very dangerous because it certainly gives the impression – and the rhetoric coming from the Conservative Party backs this up – that the UK does not have to respect any international Human Rights it does not like or finds politically inconvenient.

As such, its message to the world is that Human Rights are more or less optional and countries can pick and choose. It will therefore greatly weaken the perception of the UK’s moral authority on the international stage if it wishes to criticise Human Rights abuses in other countries, and may greatly weaken the international rule of law in this regard.

Countering extremism?

The government has made clear that it wishes to have new laws which restrict what it terms “extremism”. As announced, they contain measures targeting incitement to violence and hate speech, therefore it is not clear what it adds to existing legislation. It is also clearly aimed at one particular demographic (despite some protestations to the contrary): the Muslim community. Like the Prevent agenda, a previous UK government anti-terrorism/ extremism measure, it seems likely to increase tensions and suspicions from within this community.

Indeed, there seem to be no positive measures to promote belonging or cohesion, simply punitive measures criminalising anyone who can be branded by the very vague label “extremism”. It is therefore likely to be counterproductive and push further numbers of young people into militant action or groups nationally and globally who feel further victimised by Western governments.

Outlook

While I have suggested that these three policy areas are likely to have negative consequences, I do not wish to suggest that every policy of the new Conservative Government is flawed on a national or international basis, or even that most of their policies will have negative consequences. Nevertheless, it seems clear that these three high profile initiatives which have international aspects are potentially detrimental both to the UK and to the global community.

For Southeast Asia, a UK outside the EU will be a less attractive business partner; no longer a potential gateway to Europe and weakened economically. Likewise, without the UK, the EU would lose some of its prestige as a financial and economic centre. The same will be true in terms of diplomatic leverage: Europe would be weakened militarily and economically; and, the UK would be an isolated voice. However, the UK would be likely to seek trading agreements and partners with the region, especially Commonwealth nations.

Regionally, the UK is a strong advocate of human rights and this is unlikely to change, however, other countries may feel more able to challenge it and suggest that it is in no position to lecture them. Finally, if more British citizens join militant groups the immediate impact is likely to be in Iraq and Syria. This may, though, have a knock-on effect in terms of the perceived effectiveness of groups like ISIS/ Daesh encouraging militant groups in Malaysia and elsewhere.

*Paul Michael Hedges is an Associate Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

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Integrating A Gender Perspective In UN Peace Support Operations – Analysis

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By RJ Marco Lorenzo C. Parcon*

Two of the most important international instruments to further mainstream gender perspective in peace support operations are the Namibia Plan of Action on Mainstreaming Gender Perspective in Multidimensional Peace Support Operations, which touches upon several areas of the operation from negotiations, mandate creation, to trainings and public awareness, and UN Security Council Resolution 1325 which calls for, among others, an increased participation of women at every level of decision-making that concerns issues related to peace and security, and emphasizes the need and the UN’s willingness to incorporate a gender perspective in peacekeeping operations.

According to the UN, the adoption of Res. 1325 brought positive results in peace operations; and these were achieved through the establishment of gender units in peacekeeping operations and a Gender Adviser at the UN Headquarters; the inclusion of gender concerns in peacekeeping mandates; and the development of relevant policies and resources to further mainstream gender in peacekeeping missions and in pre-deployment trainings of Troop Contributing Countries.

Impacts of women integration and participation in peace support operations

The United Nations also noted that during the 1990s, women involvement in peace operations made up only a total of 1 percent of the total uniformed force. Taking into consideration SC Resolution 1325 and the need to mainstream gender in all areas of peace operations, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon launched a campaign in 2009 to increase women police peacekeepers to 20 percent and 10 percent in the military service. However, the latest data provided by the UN noted that uniformed women personnel constituted roughly 3 percent of the military force and 9.5 percent of the police force. Though the target was not met, efforts to further increase women participation in peace support operations, including sending all-female battalions, has proven to have a positive effect to the society as in the case of deploying all-female peacekeepers in the UN Mission in Liberia. The Mission noted that there was a significant increase in women participation in the Liberian national police after the deployment of female peacekeepers as women involvement rose to 15 percent in 2009 – a two percent increase from 2008.

Integrating women in peace operations is not only to mainstream gender equality in operations, but has a greater meaning in terms of safeguarding international peace and stability. The UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (UNDPKO) has pointed out the contributions of women peacekeepers in the host community, including forging a stronger partnership between men and women to achieve peace and stability, empowering women, addressing specific needs of women ex-combatants most especially during the demobilization and community reintegration process, and increasing interaction with women in the society, among others.

Moreover, the UN also points out that peace support operations play a significant role in the drive to have a more stable and secure environment. Therefore, these operations have a responsibility – to improve laws and institutions to be more gender equal, inclusive, and fair. In the greater context of human rights, mainstreaming will also bring about change not only in the approach used in peace operations, but can also greatly and positively impact on the lives of women and children.

It must be noted that gender equality in peace operations does not only denote increasing number of female personnel in all levels of the operations, but also enhancing the knowledge of current personnel, irrespective of sex, about the benefits of gender mainstreaming and the positive effects that it may carry towards society.

Engaging all actors involved is an imperative to reach the goal of having more gender sensitive peace operations. Therefore, men should likewise be perceived as partners in development and as partners to achieve a more humane and peaceful environment.

The Philippines, women integration, and peace operations

The 2014 Millennium Development Goals Report of the UN Development Program noted that the Philippines has a high chance of achieving MDG3 which is focused on gender equality and women empowerment. Moreover, the World Economic Forum’s 2014

Global Gender Gap Report also ranked the country as the ninth with the highest possibility of closing the gender gap in several areas including in the fields of economic participation and opportunity, and educational attainment. It must also be pointed out that the Philippines is the only Southeast Asian country included in the 10 highest-ranking countries.

The Philippines is regarded as one of the most active countries in the Asia and Pacific in terms of peace support troop contribution. According to the latest tally of UNDPKO, the country has contributed a total of 178 UN peacekeepers, making it the 4th among ASEAN Members States and 60th worldwide. It must be noted though that the Philippines has a total of only 10 women peacekeepers, which is approximately six percent of the total active force contributed for 2015.

Although the country still has limited resources and manpower to send more women peacekeepers, the Philippines is doing its best to further increase women participation in the field and ensuring that gender perspectives will be integrated both in the national and international levels.

To mainstream gender sensitivity and to curb gender-based violence, the Philippines has also instituted several pre-deployment training programs for the peacekeepers. Moreover, the country has collaborated with other TCCs especially in terms of training development and other relevant people to people exchanges.

The Philippines is well aware of the goal of the UN to increase women participation in the field of peace operations, most especially in the areas of military and police. The country has been trying to increase the participation of women in areas of peace operations be it in the in the military, police and civilian spheres.

In this regard, the Philippines was considered as the first country among the TCCs to appoint a woman as a contingent commander of a UN Peacekeeping Force as the Philippines sent Captain Luzviminda Camacho of the Philippine Navy as the head of a 156-strong Philippine force, 10 of which are female, for the peacekeeping effort in Haiti (MINUSTAH). She expressed during an interview that the country’s peacekeeping force are undergoing gender awareness prior to deployment and are given equal opportunity. Furthermore, Capt. Camacho was chosen to lead the force because she fulfilled the number one requirement of having command at sea. The aforementioned accomplishment of the Philippines signifies that gender sensitivity and gender mainstreaming are trickling down to all the processes made by the government, and that promotions are not based on sex, but based on merit.

Moreover, the Philippines has numerous gender sensitivity trainers and human rights experts that can aid not just in the pre-departure training of the troops, but also in the rebuilding process of the host state as they can further teach members of society the very foundation and importance of gender sensitivity and the link between gender and development. This may be an area where the Philippine Commission on Women and the Philippine Commission on Human Rights, other government organizations, various non-governmental organizations and members of the academe can be actively involved.

Gender perspective as a tool for equal development

Mainstreaming must not end in increasing awareness – it is just the start. Gender sensitivity and mainstreaming must trickle down to all policies and activities of the operations to the community that they are in, and must benefit all members of society irrespective of gender.

Ultimately, in the drive to integrate a gender perspective in peacekeeping and to further mainstream gender in the peace operations, the main reason for these must not be forgotten – to help rebuild a community which is safer for women and children, and a country that is committed to provide equal opportunities for men and women.

About the author:
*RJ Marco Lorenzo C. Parcon is a Foreign Affairs Research Specialist with the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies of the Foreign Service Institute. Mr. Parcon can be reached at rjcparcon@fsi.gov.ph.

The views expressed in this publication are of the authors’ alone and do not reflect the official position of the Foreign Service Institute, the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Government of the Philippines.

Source:
This article was published by FSI

The post Integrating A Gender Perspective In UN Peace Support Operations – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Bosnian Myths – Analysis

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“The continuing disasters in human history are largely conditioned by man’s excessive capacity and his urge to identify with the tribe, the nation, the church or a common goal, and to accept a certain credo uncritically and enthusiastically although the postulates of this credo are contrary to his ratio and his own interest, and may even endanger his existence.” —  A. Koestler, “Janus”, Erasmus 9, Zagreb, 1994.

The Bosnia and Herzegovina war (1992-1995) was preceded by a conflict which has been taking place on the “battlefield” of South Slavic historiography for longer than a century. The historiography war, along with the wider international circumstances, led to an armed conflict transforming this country into a Dayton assembly of ethnically homogenized entities and corridors – the region of a blurred and relative truth, instead of transforming it into a civil democratic country. The spirits should have been sharpened before knives. This historiographical “grinding wheel” for sharpening of nationalistic concepts has never stopped revolving, indicating that, according to Ina Merdjanova, “national ideology has remained the central part of the communism culture”, or negating a frequently repeated opinion that the frenzy for nationalistic movements and activities in Eastern Europe is a result of repressed national feelings prevailing during the communist regime.

University professor Dubravko Lovrenović is one of the leading European Medievalist specialized in the Balkans, pre-modern and modern political history.

University professor Dubravko Lovrenović is one of the leading European Medievalist specialized in the Balkans, pre-modern and modern political history.

Even a rough “reconnaissance” of Bosnian historiography – along with its positive achievements especially after World War II – reveals a mythomaniac consciousness and sub-consciousness of numerous authors. The main ailment of these pseudo-historiography projections reflects primarily in the fact that they almost exclusively dealt with the history of their ethnos, treading close upon the time rhythm of national integrations and homogenization. Thus, historiographic myths sprang from a mental base of a foreign-rules-burdened society without democratic traditions, still not close to the horizon of modernity and entrance to the civil society. This is the spring from which the torrent of hegemonistic and genocidal programs, xenophobia and atavism was unleashed.

Taking into account the fact that their classification is not final, these historiography myths can still be divided into seven thematic units, each of which could be sectioned further on:

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina – Serbian land
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina – a historical part of the Croatian ethnic and national space (Croatia to the Drina River)
  • The myth of the coronation of Tvrtko I Kotromanić at the Serbian – Orthodox monastery Mileševo in 1377
  • The myth of Bogomilism
  • Bosnia silently fell in 1463
  • The myth of continuous one-thousand-year-old Bosnian statehood
  • The myth of an ideal Bosnian coexistence

Bosnia and Herzegovina – Serbian Land

It is no purpose to try to prove that Serbian historiography, medieval studies in particular, is a major historiography. This major should be understood in the context of the developmental curve of the South Slavic historiography which has long remained chained by a narrative-positivist discourse and is currently stepping forward in the field of other methodological procedures. The works of I. Ruvarac, S. Stanojević, V. Ćorović, M. Dinić, G. Ostrogorski, S. Ćirković, J. Kalić (Mijušković), M. Spremić, I. Đurić, D. Kovačević-Kojić are works of permanent scientific value and a solid base for further research. Shoulder to them, there is a young generation of Serbian medievalists, substantially and methodologically directed towards new research topics and methodological procedures.

Serbian historiography, however, used to be and is still followed today by a demon of Unitarianism, of which, taking account of all the nuances and differences in the interpretations of the respective authors, it has failed to free itself from. This has also been emphasized in relation to the Bosnian medievalism, with the proviso that Serbian historians, unlike the Croatian and Bosniak ones, have never been so adventurous to try to prove within one special study an exclusive ethno-cultural character of this country and this historical epoch. This tendency, however – particularly after creating Yugoslavia in 1918 – is present in the Serbian medieval studies. Some studies of a recent date have not resisted the ailment either, whose perfectly conducted research has been overshadowed by the efforts to equalize the population of medieval Bosnia with the population of Serbia, in which the relapse of the earlier divergences is reflected.

One such position was elaborated in the early 20th century by Stanoje Stanojević, the author of a respectable work in the field of diplomacy. Using a joke on a conversation between the Romans and the Gauls in front of the gate of the eternal city, Stanojević replied in his overt letter to the lecture of Ferdo Šišić, Herzeg-Bosnia on the occasion of annexation – geographic-ethnographic-historical and constitutional considerations (published in 1909, in German, too): What is your right to Rome? Our right is placed on the top of our swords, a Gallic army leader replied. The very same answer will be given by the Serbs to the Croats when the day of a major battle for Bosnia and Herzegovina comes. The right of our national strength and the right of our bayonets will be more important and more powerful than your right, which can be weighed with a scale.

Yet, Stanojević has not laid the foundations of the Serbian historiographic Unitarianism, as this thought, like a red thread, has been running through the Serbian literature and historiography since as early as Dositej Obradović (1742-1811). After him, Ilija Garašanin, wrote in Načertanije in 1844 that a brief and general national history of Bosnia should be printed as a third degree (of the political program) in which no family patron’s day and the names of some Mohammedan-faith-transformed Bosniaks should be omitted. It is assumed in itself that this history should be written in the spirit of Slavic ethnicity and all in the spirit of the national unity of the Serbs and the Bosniaks. By printing these and other patriotic works alike, as well as through other necessary actions, which should be reasonably chosen and adapted, Bosnia would be freed from the Austrian influence and turn more to Serbia.

Garašanin’s working motto is the new renaissance of the Serbian empire based on the sacred historical right. Placing emphasis on the language issue, Vuk Stefanović Karadžić (1787-1864) was guided by this idea in his study The Serbs All and Everywhere, written in 1836, and printed in Vienna in 1849. Referring to Constantine Porphyrogenitus, this is how Karadžić marks the border between the Croats and the Serbs after their settling in the Balkans: by the sea southwards the Cetina River, towards Herzegovina Imoski (Imotski), towards Bosnia Lijevno (Livno), the Vrbas River and the Town of Jajce. Somewhat retouched, this image secured its place in the Serbian medieval studies of the 20th century. Roughly simplified and basically inaccurate, Karadžić projects this image into his time writing this: In Dalmatia on the dry land […] where the heart of the Croats was, today there is no people who would be in language distinct from the Serbs. That is why he cannot comprehend how at least these Serbs of the Roman law won’t accept to be called the Serbs. Jovan Cvijić (1865-1927), well-known for his antropogeographic research, did not fail to emphasize each single trace of the Serbian national name out of the original ethnic space, proving that the Serbs are the most widespread people in the Balkans. Being a scholar of European format, he would not evade some fundamental principles of his profession, so he would record (falling into contradiction): As a general rule of thumb, ethnographic maps and ethnographic manuscripts are chauvinistic: those who designed or wrote them instantly claimed the transition territory for the nation they themselves belonged to. They are not trusted in the professional circles, but there are so many ignorant folks confused by them. What is more, chauvinists do not tend to take account of the assimilation process carried out in the transition territories, and going back to the past, they reconstruct, mainly at random, the old ethnographic states favourable to them and enter them on the maps as if they were valid today. They go a step further, referring to history, the former conquests and historical rights, not admitting the current ethnographic situation.

How the reasoning of scientists could be blurred by an ideology was proved by the words of the same Cvijić in 1907, the year when the crisis about Bosnia and Herzegovina started erupting: we are a nationally-politically dangerous country. The world must know and ascertain that Serbia can operate in a unit much larger than its territory. Some massive territorial transformations can be initiated by Serbia. We should not flinch from putting fear into the World, should it be useful for our national interests. As if two men were struggling within him, Cvijić writes: We should particularly be cautious about the chauvinist arrogance which looks down on the neighbouring peoples with contempt and humiliation, and which does not even hesitate to verbally dispossess the neighbouring peoples of their undeniable territories.

Which of these two Cvijić’s should be trusted today?

The national connection with the Bosnian Middle Ages and its preparation for the purpose of the unitary state concept, used to be developed by the Serbian medievalists based on three constructs. The first refers to the ethnic image of Bosnia after the arrival of the Slavs, which V. Ćorović wrote about and recorded it in The History of Bosnia in 1940: The Serbian tribes grouped in the mountainous regions from the Sava and the Pliva rivers to the Lim and the West Morava and from the Cetina to the Bojana, which means mainly in the region of the present-day Bosnia and Herzegovina. Referring to Porphyrogenitus, Ćorović considers that the Bosnia of the 10th century when Porphyrogenitus was writing his work […] was in the system of Serbia. The Serbian tribes, undisturbed by anyone under the supreme power of the Serbian rulers, used to live in the central and eastern parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as in the inland counties all the way to the Neretva. Thus he could proclaim the Bosnian Queen Jelena (1395-1398) the first woman on the throne in the Serbian lands.

How he would slip out into a contradiction from this artificially created position can be seen in the following paragraph: The entire territory inherited and acquired by Tvrtko, except in the littoral towns, used to have only our national element. He was the first to start the activities on drawing the neighbouring regions to the Bosnian land, the time when both other tribal factors were prevented from working independently, like the Croats, or busy with other issues, like the Serbs. Insisting on our national element, Ćorović indirectly admitted the ethno-political individuality of medieval Bosnia.

In his book, whose scientific value cannot be denied even today, but which is imbued with the political beliefs of a royalist diplomat, Ćorović’s aberrations end up in assessing the causes of the fall of the Bosnian state, which again take him into contradiction with his thesis that this land represents a part of the Serbian political and ethnic space: The Bosnian history has never yielded a single Marica battle, let alone the magnificent Kosovo! No Balkan state fell so soon, so light-mindedly, nor so shamefully. In a fierce state of religious quarrel; devoid of feelings of true national independence due to a too strong Hungarian pressure and religious Roman activity: in recent years even class-divided, with discontent peasants; long being the scene of civil wars, where people joined whoever they chose and where battles were conducted in the way they wished and the way they could; with a shattered family and any other moral; Bosnia fell almost as an exemplar of a state, which neither had any conscious historical missions nor clear governing ideas. There is an open question why it escaped Ćorović’s notice that it was the Serbian state that had fallen under Ottoman Rule four years before the Bosnian state, and many others even before it. And if Serbs were those who had actually inhabited medieval Bosnia, how did such a rapid, light-minded and shameful downfall happen?

There are few Serbian historians dealing with the political history of the medieval Bosnia, who failed to emphasize, as Ćorović himself does, that Bosnia as a political entity separated from the Serbia of Prince Časlav Klonimirović in the first half of the 10th century: The borders of Časlav’s state have a very wide scope. The Serbia of that time comprised Bosnia to the Pliva, the Cetina and Lijevno in the West. Ever since, the Serbian national name has become a permanent mark for the tribes of the same origin and the same traits. The emperor of Constantinople groups the Serbs respectively as follows: the Bosnians, the Rascians (the Serbs of Rascia state), the Travunians, the Konavlians, the Diocleans, the Chlumians and the Neretvians, the tribes, which actually got their respective names after the geographic regions they lived in. One example would show how some people from the Croatian side, only using a different national prefix, tried to Croatize medieval Bosnia in ethnic and political ways and thus answer the question: Whose is Bosnia?

Apart from having read non-existent content into Porphyrogenitus’ work, Ćorović is one of the numerous Serbian historians who represented the thesis of the coronation of the Bosnian King Tvrtko I Kotromanić at the Serbian-Orthodox monastery Mileševa – meanwhile initially a disputed and then by means of scientific evidence rejected structure, which had nestled in historiography via the works of Mavro Orbini (1563-1614). Thus, excluding Ilarion Ruvarac, a “scientific” consensus was created with a view to stamping in an ethnic character to Bosnian medievalism and providing Serbs with a claim to be the most constituent people in Bosnia and Herzegovina. That the historiographical devil never sleeps here was proved by the wartime promotion of Bosniaks to the fundamental Bosnia-Herzegovina people.

Once the day has come in Serbian historiography and new Ruvaracs have appeared, when those like him have started reshaping the state of the Serbian historical consciousness, a revolution could happen here – no sign of him for the time being yet. The resolutions reached at the international conference held at the Serbian Academy of Arts and Sciences from 13 to 15 December 1994 (Bosnia and Herzegovina from the Middle Ages to the Modern Age) are favourable to such a conviction. The conference was also an occasion for the Serbian historians to discuss the topic: Bosnia and Herzegovina and Other Serbian Lands.

Bosnia and Herzegovina – a historical part of the Croatian ethnic and national space (Croatia to the Drina River)

This historiography myth started getting its outlines with the emergence of the Party-of-Rights ideology of Dr. Ante Starčević at the end of the 20th century, the time of the post-Illyrian process of the Croatian national integration. The historical circumstances of the time were favourable to the emergence of the integral Croatian political ideology, whose aim was a homogenous nation capable of creating a unified national state outside the framework of the Habsburg Monarchy. In order to mobilize the nation, the Party-of-Rights doctrine insisted on an image of an ideal nation in the past, which Starčević equalized with the ruling Croatian people in the early Middle Ages. This ideology of Starčević (he himself having the reputation of being a friend of the Turks) comprised within this context Bosnia and Herzegovina, proclaiming the Bosnian class of beys (begovat) as a flower of Croatian nobility.

Some historians in the 20th century developed the thesis of medieval Bosnia belonging to the Croatian state on the basis of their close medieval ecclesiastical-political ties, equating the proclaimed national unity of the 19th century with the similarity of the medieval cultures, thus ignoring the genesis – the essential element of historical flow. Like on the Serbian side, too, these vague understandings have tangled up into an obsessive search for evidence and proofs and sheer collecting data on the “geographic spread of this or that nation today (and their claiming this or that area).” At the same time, the analyses of the local and personal names of that time exclusively served to identify with the modern national communities and, in this spirit, to exercise their true, or more frequently, their fictional historical rights. The most important among the numerous oversights which have been feeding these narrow, passionate points of view, is actually equating the modern with medieval notions of nation and state. The notion of a historical right, a political people and a political nation have been mixed up and equated in this case. The modern historical science has made the notion of the historical right relative, and reduced the stereotypical images of the political nation to the notion of nobility nationalism as one kind of proto-nationalism. The Croatianism of the Catholics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, nothing less than Serbism and Bosniakism of the Orthodox and the Muslims, is an ex post facto product. Croatia to the Drina and the Croatian flags at mountain Romanija, which could be heard of on the eve of the recently ended war, are the echo of a tune coming from the stale ideological wells of history. Meanwhile, the standard-bearers disappeared without trace, or are comfortably sitting in the shade of their own sinecures.

The processes of ethno-genesis in the region of Bosnia and Herzegovina since the early Middle Ages to this date followed their own special course at the end of which, in the late 19th century, the Catholic substrate of Bosnia and Herzegovina transformed into the Croatian nation, which should imply the identity community, including the scale of values within which individuals and groups are identified primarily on the basis of upbringing. Thus, this Croatian example manifests the truth of the principle that nations are more frequently a result of establishing a state rather than a basis on which a state is created, and that we are constantly at risk of assessing a people on the basis of the programs they have never followed and the exams they have never sat.

Within this framework, knowing that the medieval notion of a nation largely differs from its modern meaning, it is necessary to observe the processes of ethno-genesis and political-genesis in the region of medieval Bosnia and establish how the initial Slavic name, probably including the Croatian one, too, transformed into Bosnian.

The Bosnian medieval ethno-genesis, like elsewhere in Europe, has comprised different ethnic groups whose mutual mixing throughout centuries brought about a new people, as it was called by R. Martins, who saw the light of day when the first form of stable political power appeared in the 10th and 11th century. At least four different ethnic groups participated in its creation: Illyrian, Roman, Avar and Slavic. It is understandable that the latter, Slavic, has the most prominent position – the language being the best evidence – however, the role of others, primarily Illyrian, is not negligible.

The Illyrian ethnic group had had an entire millennium and a half of a continuous life in this region before the Slavic started settling Bosnia and Hum (Herzegovina) in the 7th century. During this long time the Illyrians succeeded in forming a very strong tribal alliance which successfully resisted the Roman pacification attempts; they also managed to develop economics and their distinct culture, enriched with Greek and later Roman cultural achievements. During the four and a half centuries of Roman rule, the upper stratum of the Illyrian society was largely Romanised, but simultaneously, the majority of the local population kept their own language and the established way of life.

On the arrival of the Slavs, this numerous, tough and warlike people could not have disappeared overnight. On the contrary, the results of ethno-genetic research of the Bosnian-Hum region, acquired by combining historical sources, archaeological finds, ethnology and linguistics, prove that the merging process of rather numerous indigenous, never Romanized and semi-Romanized Illyrian ethnos with the Slavic newcomers, especially in some remote areas, was very intensive and that the Illyrian native element played a significant role in forming of the cultural, somatic and mental traits of the Slavic population who still live in these areas today. This is evident in the remains and surviving elements of the folk culture, architecture, urban planning, sepulchral practice, mythology, religious and magic beliefs, ornamental motifs, national costumes and footwear, jewellery, music, dance, language and socio-political organization. This was certainly induced by the fact that, either directly or indirectly, destruction mostly hit urban and a lot less remote areas, where the native population remained unaffected by the most severe consequences. It was this never-Romanized, but also Romanized Illyrian ethnos that ensured the continuity in the development of culture in the Bosnian-Hum region by the late Middle Ages and beyond. The cultural influences and the role of Illyrians in the ethno-genesis of neighbouring countries are also not negligible. In all likelihood, they were crucial in Albania, while leaving visible traces in the region of medieval Croatia.

The fact that old authors give prefix Illyrian to the Bosnian medieval language and the population west of the Drina far in the Middle Ages, reliving the Illyrian name in the language, heraldry, the name for a political program in the period of awaken national movements in the 19th century, the Illyrian custom of tattooing, so-called tattoo, preserved by the Bosnian Croats-Catholics to the present day, surviving elements in folk art are some indications which emphasize the role of the Illyrians in the medieval Bosnian ethno-genesis. It is assumed that the very name of the Bosna River represents a Slavicized form of the Illyrian name Bathinus (Basanius). This thesis has been arguably disputed recently by M. Vego and M. Hadžijahić, and new arguments have been stated to prove the connection between Bosnia, the country and the Slavic tribe of the same or similar name. A recently published Venetian document dated 12th April 1421 in Bosnia, naming the Bosnia River by its ancient name: Batan, illustrates in words how inveterate the Illyrian-Slavic terminology in this region is.

The role of the Avars was not negligible either, especially in the process of establishing the first forms of a state-political organization in the initial migratory period, when, as we know, they gave leadership to a more numerous Slavic group. As early as the first half of the 10th century, Emperor Constantine Porphyrogenitus testified about the significant remains of the Avar ethnos in Croatia (there are still Avar descendants in Croatia and by their physical appearance, you can tell they are Avars). The ruler’s title ban and the administrative-territorial title župan (prefect), very early rooted with the Slavs having arrived in the region where a Bosnian state developed later, are most likely of Avar origin.

Relatively well preserved pre-Roman and Roman toponomastics and language expressions permanently established in the vocabulary of the settled Slavic ethnos, among other things testify to the Roman-Slavic symbiosis. There were, of course, antagonisms, too, primarily on a religious basis, but with time, as Christianity spread, they were eventually overcome. The Romanized Illyrian stratum played a key role in this process.

What can be least likely spoken about is the role of the Celtic and German component. The Celtic ethnos was limited mostly to the northern and north-eastern parts of Bosnia and their role in the overall cultural creation in the pre-Slavic period is incomparable with the Illyrian. The Germanic (East-Gothic) authority in Bosnia and Hum lasted too short (about 40 years) to leave deeper traces behind, but it is not excluded that a part of this ethnic group, after the restoration of the Byzantine authority in the mid 6th century, permanently stayed in their old habitats and eventually merged with the natives and Slavic newcomers.

After some time, the domestic toponymy pushed back the Slavic names and remained in use, giving the group name to the peoples included in the ethno-genesis process, primarily in the region of the so called Ban (central) Bosnia. The population of medieval Bosnia appear in the source material of the domestic, eastern and western origin exclusively under the name of Bošnjani (Bosnenses), which became familiar even in the regions which relatively late (14th century) came out of the Serbian state and became a part of Bosnia. This, of course, was not a Bosnian specificity as the ethno-genesis in the wider part of the South-Slav territory, where the Croatian or Serbian name was not familiar after certain time shot off to the surface the local toponyms, which ‘baptized’ the new Slavic tribes. The examples are the names of the inhabitants of Hum (Chlumians), Konavli (Konavlians), Travunia (Travunians), Carinthia (Carantanians), Dioclea (Diocleans). Even more educative name is for the Rascians, which has been preserved for the Serbs up to the present day.

On top of this, the Slavs, just like other barbarians, who built new social structures on the ruins of the Roman empire, were not connected with an idea of the national unity, as they, like other peoples, in terms of ethno-genesis, mutually differed a lot (one Armenian source mentions 25 different peoples being comprised under one common name the Slavs). Various tribes and peoples managed to impose themselves as masters upon other ethnic groups, who would after a shorter or a longer period also adopt a new name, becoming one with the new masters. Mixed marriages, especially between the members of the social elite, unravelled these minorities, but did not cause them to vanish into thin air.

Apart from an intermediary, somewhat safe narration of Porphyrogenitus, there is not a single modern historical source on the basis of which it would be possible to find out to which extent the Croatian tribes settled the region of the so-called Ban Bosnia. If the Croats did really settle the area, which is not excluded, they must have presented a distinct minority in the Slavic and Illyrian-Roman majority, which they eventually became assimilated into. After all, it is common knowledge that the process of developing the first forms of the political power with the Croats, situated in the immediate hinterland of the Byzantine towns at the Adriatic coast, happened faster than with the Serbs, but, according to previous knowledge, even in these circumstances, it was necessary to wait for the Croatian name to appear in documents until 825 AD, the year when it was recorded in the famous Trpimir’s Deed of Gift that the Croatian name would definitely be affirmed at the Councils of Split (925 AD – 928 AD). The territory in question was a region relatively densely populated by Croats; the region where the nucleus of the Croatian early-medieval state was formed.

Assuming that the Croats really did settle in Bosnia, we should wonder, as I. Goldstein does, whether there is a person today who would be able to identify in their family tree the Croats who settled here in the 7th century, after all the numerous emigrations and immigrations, christenings and re-christenings, Islamization and de-Islamization, which have occurred over the last few centuries on the ground of Bosnia and Herzegovina. As they write, it seems that some would.

The reliance of the modern national sentiment on the Middle Ages is not instructive in the first place because of the fact that in the understanding of the nation at that time, as evidenced by canonist Regino of Prüm in around 900 AD, the primacy over pure racial categories was given to the sociological ones (customs, language and law). To correctly understand this issue, it is important to know that until as late as the end of the 18th century the nation was not formed by so-called national unity, but by the dominant, representative political class; it is out of the question that we, until that time, could speak about a national but exclusively about so-called noble nation.

Following the division of H. Schulze into state and cultural nations, the BH Croats seem to find it more appropriate to use the cultural nation as a term of reference. Its present transformation into the concept of exclusively state-political nature, along with the scientifically improvable theory about so-called state register and spare homeland, shows all the malignancy of the utopia that it is possible to consciously influence the historical course which has its own deeply rooted heritage. Thus it becomes crystal clear that an artificial opposition between terms Bosnian and Croatian could have been created as one of the war products. Among other things, the euphoric converting the last Bosnian King, the ill-fated Stjepan Tomašević, to the king of the Croatian name, language and origin bears witness to this. The kind of self-oblivion and their own historical self-denial which is being produced by the CDU (Croatian Democratic Union) policy through a systematic destruction of the Bosnian domiciliation as an essential component of Croatianism today, threatens to completely extirpate the authentic Croatian (which means Bosnian) culture in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Since the formation of nations on the European continent has a thousand-year-old pre-history, each competent analysis of ethnic relationships in medieval Bosnia will have to take into account the spirit of that epoch and the actual state of facts. If either ethnos – the Croats or Serbs – participated in the process of ethno-genesis on the Bosnian ground, they were eventually assimilated by the people named Bosnians (Bošnjani) which, after all, was not an exception but rather the rule in the spirit of which similar processes took place all over Europe.

“For actually a very long time,” as noted by Ž. Ivanković, “in the course of the Bosnian history the national ethnic awareness is out of the question for, the only way to show complete awareness was through what was more dominant, which was developed in the believer-unbeliever opposition.” The same author, watching the modern nations being constituted within the entirety of the South Slavic space, observes an essential component of the BH Croatianism: giving a political meaning to it through the Franciscan phenomenon and Illyrism as a romantic, but a no-less-important form. The political concept of Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatianism was formulated in this first phase: “constituting the nation in the modern meaning of the term, the integration of the national space, bridging the class gap, the democratization of public life, economy, phrasing the national interests through an ideology, a political program, a cultural metamorphosis, etc, and all this on the basis of the obtained freedoms and the degree of the experience reached in the West.” Since then “we have been able to officially speak about the Croats in Bosnia or at least about the Bosnian specificity of Croatianism.” Transforming Bosnian Catholics into the national Croats – transforming a people into a nation – was a time-consuming and a long-term process, viscerally connected not only with the political and cultural affairs in Bosnia but also in neighbouring Croatia and wider, as shown by P. Korunić.

Profiling the Bosnian type of Croatianism has been summarized by I. Lovrenović:

An individual and collective, psychological and historical, cultural and political habits and profile are created over centuries of major negative impact of particular circumstances relating to the political boundaries between the worlds […] Culturally (within an imagined entirety of the western culture), organizationally (within the entirety of the Franciscan Order and Catholic Church), nationally (within the Croatian national and cultural totality) – this profile gains the status of a variety. This variety, of course, corresponds with the entirety, but is significantly differentiated in regard to it. The features of this differentiation are not so striking to convert a variety into an entity, but are striking enough to be quickly and easily stopped from being a constant obstacle to a total correspondence, that is – to merge into a unique identity.

Reducing the process to its most reasonable dimension, to the language and culture, the phenomenon of Croatianism today can be properly illuminated only in its three-kind manifestation […] in three striking cultural-civilizing subtypes: Mediterranean-Roman, Pannonian-Middle-European, Balkan-Oriental.

It only shows that in such a complicated cultural manifestation, in this unique case in the European culture, whose destiny is to be “a participant and an heir to everything this circle has created and touched, his entire register of shapes and touches”, the concept of metropolitan paradigm, the model of centre and periphery cannot operate successfully. In its historical default polycentrism and polymorphism, the Bosnian-Croatian component cannot be observed superficially, like a “supplement of a lower rank”.

In the light of this three-kind paradigm, we can speak only about its harmonious and productive dominance but not in the manner which would do away with one component for the sake of fictitious crippling purity, but in the manner of its full affirmation which can only set the Croatian culture in the place which it objectively deserves: in the planetary cultural unity.

That the Bosnian Croatianism is impossible to reduce to an ethnic pendant of so-called main history is illustrated in probably the most controversial book of Bosnia-Herzegovina/Croatian historiography: Etnička povijest Bosne i Hercegovine (Ethnic History of Bosnia and Herzegovina) by Fra Dominik Mandić, published in Rome in 1967. This voluminous book with 554 pages, a result of extensive research which included references and sources in various languages, lived for a long time in a scientific “semi-hiding”, which additionally contributed to the creation of mythically-conspiratorial atmosphere around it and its author. Back to my student days, I remember that each lobby talk about Mandić and his book was as a rule carried out in a low voice. I also remember this book being one of the first “forbidden” books I encountered after having completed my studies and that reading it confronted me with my university knowledge. Mandić’s theses on the eminently Croatian character of the ethno-political history of Bosnia and Herzegovina (especially the Bosnian Middle Ages) used to feed the myth of Croatia to the Drina River, Mandić not being its creator though.

The thesis on the Croatian ethnic root of the BH Muslims (Bosniaks) used to be developed by Franjo Tuđman, who, in as early as 1965 wrote the following: As it has been considered in Croatia that Bosnia and Herzegovina have been Croatian lands since time immemorial on the basis of the historical and ethnic right, for they were mainly the part of the old Croatian state, for the Muslim population in the great majority was of the Croatian origin, which used to be proved by their ikavian dialect, it was this issue that caused most fierce confrontations of the two nationalisms {Serbian and Croatian}. In his book Nacionalno pitanje u suvremenoj Europi (National Issue in Modern Europe) printed in Zagreb in 1990, Tuđman further developed this idea: When objectively considering the numerical composition of the Bosnia and Herzegovina population, we must not ignore the fact that the Muslim population in their vast majority, by their ethnic composition and their speech, undoubtedly has Croatian descent, and that, in spite of historically created cultural-religious particularities, always, whenever they had a chance, they voted by the vast majority as an integral part of the Croatian nation. Starting from these facts, there is a Croatian majority in the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and their economic connection with other Croatian parts is of such a nature that neither Croatia within the present borders, nor separated Bosnia and Herzegovina have conditions for individual, normal development. Founded on the mythical images of Muslims as Croats, the counterpart to Greater-Serbian arrogation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tuđman’s political program, along with other factors, pushed the BH Croats in the recent war into an abyss measurable with Bleiburg’s.

How Tuđman’s conclusions correspond with Mandić’s is clearly explained in the final consideration in Ethnic History of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Etnička povijest BiH): The native Croatian population in Bosnia and Herzegovina changed their state rules and their religion, but it was always the total number of Croat Catholics, Bogomils and Muslims that made the majority in the state. Therefore, despite all the historical hardships and changes, Bosnia and Herzegovina ethnically remained permanently Croatian lands. During the Turkish occupation in 1463, Bosnia and Herzegovina had: Croat Catholics about 83%, Croat Bogomils about 10%, the Croats converted to Orthodox creed about 2%, non-Slavic Vlachs, mostly Catholic, about 2%, and genuine ethnic Serbs about 3%. So, in 1463, there were about 95% of Croats in present-day Bosnia and Herzegovina. These impossible to prove conclusions, especially when it comes to percentages, were possible to reach by Mandić only in the course of systematic inputting of non-existent data into historic sources.

In the year of publishing his Ethnic History (Etnička povijest), and criticizing some views of Nada Klaić, whose work he rated as inaccurate and harmful for the Croatian people, Mandić wrote in Hrvatska revija (Croatian Review): The national history, treated truthfully and faithfully, in its entire breadth, is one of the most powerful means for supporting the national awareness, strengthening the people’s power and making people capable of sacrifices and efforts for cultural, social and national achievements. He elaborated on it saying that it was his scientific and patriotic duty to warn the Croatian public both at home and abroad against the faulty views and harmful effects of the stated pieces of writing to raising the young Croatian historians and for the Croatian people in general.

In the Preface Ethnic History (Etnička povijest), Mandić elaborated on it more explicitly: The fundamental question in the history of Herzeg-Bosnia and in reality today is the question of people. A special attention has been given to studying religious development in these lands, for nowhere else did faith change so much and affect the people’s affiliation than in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the span of less than a thousand years, the ancestors of most natives living in Bosnia and Herzegovina today have radically changed their religious affiliation five times, which left consequences in the people. What we are talking about here is a correct observation, however, not followed by correct conclusions.

The Mandić’s statements comprise the paradox of ethno-confessional nationalism: Throughout history the world has thoroughly changed several times – if the dead stood up, they would wonder where they were – but the fictions in people’s minds resist all the changes by building a world of imaginary images. As evidence to this stands the statement of a recently arrested General of the Croatian Army Ivan Andabak: We have been betrayed by the {Bosniaks}. I had the highest opinion about them, we cooperated in emigration, there were many of them in my formation, but then they betrayed us, stabbed a knife in our back. They turned away from Croatianism, having given up their roots.

Such views are a relapse of so-called national renaissance rooted in the 19th century, which S.M.Džaja, evaluated as a re-conquest of the entire national history, both cultural and political, the Middle Ages being the orientation epoch, the language and South Slavic ethnic relations having been accepted as the criteria.

It is the works of younger generation of the Croatian medievalists I. Goldstein and N. Budak who, together with the book by S. M. Džaja (Nationalism and Denominationalism of Bosnia and Herzegovina) do show that none of these pruned history images have stood serious scientific criticism. In his book Croatian Medievalism (Zagreb, 1995) – one of the best syntheses of the Croatian medieval studies – eminent Zagreb professor Tomislav Raukar places medieval Bosnia where it really belongs: in the peripheral area of Croatian history. It is also in this book of Braudel-like inspiration that he emphasized that the social individuality of medieval Bosnia was shaped at the junction of eastern and western actions, and that the social and state individualization were also the basis upon which its ethno-culture was established. Raukar’s inventive observations emerged on the trace of the modern historical science free of ideological foreign elements. Last but not least: he held the same sources in his hands as Mandić. Along with this purified scientific approach live with the younger generations of the Croatian historians the old pseudo-scientific viruses about medieval Bosnia being a territory.

Once the history of the Bosnia and Herzegovina historiography has been written sine ira et studio, it will be of utmost importance to establish how the political views of authors affected their scientific conclusions. Dominik Mandić with his Ethnic History of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as a meritorious historian will take his prominent place in this history. For the time being, this book can be understood as evidence of one unfortunate controversy: Mandić, a respected historian, erudite, paleographer, philologist, and theologian facing the Mandić who allowed ideological contamination to lead him astray.

In one of his recent works (The Drina Border – Meaning and Development of the Mythologem, in: Historical Myths in the Balkans, Collection of Works, The History Institute in Sarajevo, Sarajevo, 2003), using strong scientific argumentation, Ivo Goldstein buried The Croatia to the Drina myth. Sooner or later, the authentically Croatian understanding of Bosnia and Herzegovina will have to take this path. This will primarily require a deep transformation as viewed by the Catholic Church hierarchy in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which, back in the communist regime, was a synonym of the political opposition, but in the new circumstances, (even if with kid gloves) adhering to ethno-nationalism, has often become a bearer of the sub-culture of the political religion with the sacral notions of nation and state. The statement uttered by Khristofor Sabev immediately after 1989, referring to the Bulgarian Orthodox Church is applicable to this hierarchy today. On that occasion, he said: “The church has been used for political ends so far but it will be used for ecclesiastical ends from now on.”

The myth of the coronation of Tvrtko I Kotromanić at the Serbian – Orthodox monastery Mileševo in 1377

The scientifically-impossible-to-prove thesis on the Serbian origin of the Bosnian crown as a classic historiographical myth has nestled in historical science through the work of an author from Dubrovnik, an ideologist and historian Mavro Orbini, published under title Il Regno degli Slavi (The Kingdom of the Slavs) in 1601 in Pesaro. Several generations of national and foreign historians carried this myth over, until in the seventies and the eighties of the 20th century, Đ. Basler, P. Anđelić and S. M. Džaja came up with counter-arguments which made it scientifically irrelevant. This is not the right place to retell this interesting detail from Bosnian medieval history; it is enough to draw attention to some facts which offer a solution to the entire issue:

Orbini himself, who in his compendium on the South Slav history identified the locality Mili from Central Bosnia as Mileševo (which did not mean equating it with the Serbian Mileševa at all), pointed out that ban Stjepan II Kotromanić “in Mileševo in Bosnia erected during his life […] and was buried there, the church of Friars Minor of St Nicholas”. Judging by this crystal clear fact alone, no controversy about the coronation venue of the first Bosnian king was possible, especially because the Serbian kings used to be crowned at Peter’s Church, or in Žiča or Peć, which excludes the Serbian-Orthodox Mileševa from all the combinations. In addition, the metropolitan of Mileševa, authenticated only in the later time of Stjepan Vukčić Kosača (1434-1466), besides the archbishop, or patriarch after 1346, was not empowered to conduct a royal coronation.

Equating Mili and Mileševa can be found in Franciscan Martirologij (Martyrology) from 1369, as well as with national chroniclers of the 17th and 18th century, among others with Pavle Ritter Vitezović and Fra Bernardin Nagnanović.

In his solemn charter issued on 10th April, 1378 addressing the inhabitants of Dubrovnik, Tvrtko himself says that he went to the Serbian land and that having gone there he was crowned.

By the end of 1408, Hungarian king Sigismund of Luxemburg (1387 – 1437) imposed on the Bosnian nobility an obligation to be adorned with the crown of the said Bosnian kingdom, as solemnly and honorably as late king Tvrtko ruled. He was obviously well versed in the details of the coronation of Tvrtko I, who, not being Orthodox could not be crowned at a Serbian-Orthodox monastery.

The Bosnian crown is of an endogenous origin, and the person who, in the spirit of the bishopric competences prevailing all over Europe, crowned the first Bosnian king could only be the djed (‘grandfather’) of the Bosnian Church – its real bishop, as he used to title himself in the beginning of 1404.

Both practically and theoretically, this event defined the content of the Hungarian-Bosnian relations until 1463, and later, when by appointing the puppet kings in Bosnia until 1477, the Ottomans and Hungarians continued the age-old conflict in this area.2

The Myth of Bogomilism

The so-called Bogomils had their place in historiography reserved in the second part of the 19th century by no one else but one such scientific authority as in his time was (and still is) Franjo Rački. In its basis, as claimed by A. Vaillant, Bogomilism of the Bosnian Church is the deed of Franjo Rački and Croatian Romanticism. This is, he notes, the beautiful national heresy, which the Croats used to be proud of, and which competed with the Czech Hussitism.

The focus of the Bogomil myth is in the statement that medieval Bosnia was the centre of a neo-manichean-dualistic doctrine that stood in opposition to the official teachings of the Catholic and Orthodox Church. Moreover, it also stood in the thesis that the elitist doctrine in Bosnia had mass supporters.

In the last 50 years there have been a number of critical studies which shed light on the ecclesiastical circumstances in medieval Bosnia in a new way. Their research, with some of my own observations, I would summarize in the following conclusions:

Safvet-bey-Bašagić-Redžepašić (1870-1934), the author and orientalist, first introduced in 1892 the Bogomil ideology and the idea of an uninterrupted continuity between medieval and Ottoman Bosnia in all relevant biological and governmental segments, as indicated by S. M. Džaja, into the Muslim-Bosniak historical consciousness, and then, in his historic compendium Kratka uputa u prošlost Bosne i Hercegovine od 1463 do 1850 (Brief Instructions on the Past of Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1463 to 1850), Sarajevo, 1900. Through the project of integral Bosniakism, the Austro-Hungarian governor in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Benjamin Kálay (1882-1903), confronting it with Serbian and Croatian pretentions to Bosnia and Herzegovina, supported this national concept for political reasons.

By the time the first accusations on account of heresy occurred at the turn of the 12th to the 13th century, medieval Bosnia had already had a half-millennium-long tradition of Catholic Slavic-Glagolitic ritual practice, which is visible in documents and archeological artifacts. Compared to Hungary, where Catholicism spread in its Latin variety, medieval Bosnia had had a much longer Christian tradition by the time the first accusations occurred.

The first denunciations which brought Bosnia in connection with heresy were started by Vukan, the Grand Prince of Dioclea (Duklja), who, having seen that he was losing the political battle for power, in this way tried to get closer to Pope Innocent III (1198-1216) and ensure the promotion of the Bar diocese to the rank of metropolitan. At the same time, we should not lose sight of the fact that the first Serbian King Stefan the First-Crowned was crowned with the papal crown in 1217, in the era of redefining the relations between the Eastern and Western Church in South-East Europe after the collapse of Byzantium in the Fourth Crusade in 1204. Later, this mechanical, ideological and clichéd vocabulary was taken over by the Hungarian rulers who, in the service of the universal program of papacy from the 13th century tried to Latinize the Bosnian Slavic diocese and spread the influence of the Hungarian ecclesiastical structures. It is indicative that the Hungarian rulers in their subsequent relations with Bosnia activated the accusation vocabulary only when it was necessary to achieve their political goals. On the contrary, in the era of the steady relations with Bosnian rulers, the majority of whom were included in the Hungarian feudal system, there is no trace of such accusations.

The Bosnian Church, which appears in domestic sources for the first time in 1326/29, for the entire duration of its activity until 1459, was neither numerically strong nor was it ever focused on working in masses (it was not without reason that Guest Radin and a group of his followers, who sought asylum at their region in 1466, were called a sect by the Venetians) due to the absence of a territorial-pastoral network, on which the Catholic Church based its actions with the people. Due to its rather rigorous rules, with the Spartan classification of sins in which each deviation from the regulations was treated as a mortal (unpardonable) sin, from the very start, the Church could not be attractive to an ordinary man of conformist nature. The Bosnian Church started losing this original ascetic feature from the early 15th century, if not even earlier, laicizing itself and acquiring the living code of the noble feudal environment. On the other side, the Catholic Church of the mid 14th century through Franciscans, but also through the secular clergy, developed diversified pastoral activities which comprised within its scope a substantial part of the Bosnian population; its pastoral achievements in the years before the fall of the Bosnian state in 1463 were evidenced by the Patriarch of Constantinople Genadius Scholarius.

The doctrine of the Bosnian Church was not primarily focused on the negation of the Christological principles, but on the criticism of the universal Church.

Medieval Bosnia did not know internal religious tensions on a larger scale, which were recorded in France in the early 13th century and in Bohemia of the first half of the 15th century. Franciscan monasteries and the hiže (houses) of the Bosnian Church, concentrated in the area of central Bosnia, in the king’s land, all the time coexisting quietly and without disputing.

As a rule, the historical sources written in the Latin language speak about the “heresy” of the Bosnian Church, whereas, conversely, historiography has proved that the appearance of the Bosnian Church cannot be associated with the tradition and the background of the Western-European mystical-dualistic movements from the latter half of the 12th and early 13th century. The illuminated liturgical books (Biblical manuscripts), which arose from the lap of the Bosnian Church, were written in the spirit of the Christian doctrine and loyalty to the traditional Slavic-Cyril-Methodius linguistic standards. A paleographic-artistic analysis of the Biblical texts of the Bosnian Church speaks about their reliance on the older Dalmatian-Croatian Glagolitic models and the eminently European dimension being reflected in the presence of the both prevailing Western-European artistic styles, first Romanesque and then Gothic. Both the Western-European “modernism” and the Bosnian “traditionalism” have been imbued in the Biblical manuscripts in the most artistically authentic manner, Hval’s Miscellany (Codex) and Hrvoje’s Missal, liturgical books especially made for Herzeg Hrvoje Vukčić Hrvatinić in the early 15th century. A fruitful cooperation of the national scribes and foreign (Dalmatian-Italian) illuminators resulted in artistic creations recognizable by their Western-European gothic style, but also by the regional Bosnian “handwriting”. Symbolically stated: Bosnia brought into this relationship a patron (Maecenas), a scribe and the national scripts (Glagolitic and Cyrillic), and Western Europe “donated” the artistic style and illuminators. This model actually illustrates the mechanism on which the international culture of the medieval Europe rested, marked by global art trends and local varieties.

In harmony with their public views but frequently, also with actual political interests, the established Churches of that time used to decide whether a kind of teaching was heretical or not. How rigid observance of this principle in its essence proves to be unsustainable is illustrated by the following case of St Methodius, who was proclaimed a heretic by the German prelates, which provided the reason for sending him to the dungeon. It would be more instructive to speak about the types of piety, as done by J. Huizinga, rather than about heresy. J. Burckhardt noted how intensively religious old heretics had been compared to the present-day Christians.

Being a state church (J. Šidak), the Bosnian Church filled the gap in the social tissue of the medieval Bosnian state which had been caused by dislocating the seat of the Catholic Diocese in Đakovo in the mid 13th century. In the ecclesiastical vacuum which lasted until the establishment of the Franciscan Vicariate in 1339/1340, a special Christian denomination developed being precisely defined by the well-informed people of Dubrovnik who marked it as the Bosnian faith. The same people of Dubrovnik used term the Roman faith as its antipode. Based on this division between the Bosnian and Roman faith – in whose background there were political motives – there developed with the Bosnian landed gentry a special denominational sensibility, which, as in the case of Hrvoje Vukčić, found its exact expression in adherence to one and (or) the other church organization.

An accompanying part of the myth of Bogomilism represents the Myth of the Bogomil character of the medieval tombstones, stećak tombstones, which spread out over the last decades of the 19th century. After an entire century of dealing with this phenomenon, historical science abandoned this position and is today approaching it from a different point of view. The historical path of this demythologization I outline in my monograph on stećak tombstones.

Bosnia silently fell in 1463

The myth of the rapid fall of the medieval Bosnian state was created under the impression of events from the spring and summer of 1463, when the Turkish sultan Mehmed II the Conqueror trampled over Bosnia. This myth seasoned with so-called Bogomil treason, was fabricated from the pen of the then papal legate in Bosnia, Bishop Nikola of Modruš and created as an attempt to justify their own wrong policy (cancelling the usual tribute to the sultan and the concessions made for the Hungarian king Mathias Corvinus, suggested to Stjepan Tomašević from Rome) which accelerated this already inevitable collapse.

All other sources only mention the sudden breakthrough of the Ottoman troops to Bosnia, battles at Bobovac and other Bosnian towns, defenders’ resistance, destruction and mass exodus of the population, widespread panic and chaotic fleeing towards the Adriatic Sea and islands.

The fall of the Bosnian state under the rule of the Ottoman Empire is a result of a number of mutually conditioned factors, both internal and external. The 1463 collapse was just the finale of the process commenced long ago, the time when the Bosnian and Turkish armies first clashed at Bileća at the end of the 14th century. Simple calculation itself says that Bosnia “was falling” under Ottoman rule for almost 80 years.

The myth of continuous Bosnian statehood

This myth has a wartime date and is related to the act of the international recognition of Bosnia and Herzegovina on 6 April, 1992 and is intended to be presented as a crucial piece of evidence for the recognition of this statehood. Treading close upon are the ideas such as proclaiming year 1387 the year of the establishment of the alleged Bosnian University as well as the idea of erecting a mausoleum in the centre of Sarajevo where the bones of the members of the Kotromanić dynasty would be laid. They are harmonized with the claim, stated for the first time, that Bosnian Queen Katarina (Catherine) herself took her children Sigismund and Katarina (Catherine) in 1463 and gave them over to the conqueror of Bosnia, sultan Mehmed II.

The medieval Bosnian state as a historical fact can be traced in continuity in the sources since the 10/11th century until the Turkish invasion in 1463. This state organization (it would be more appropriate to call it a form of political power) went through different development stages from the initial establishment of the early feudal forms of the political power in so-called Banate of Bosnia, over the zenith during the reign of Tvrtko I Kotromanić in the latter part of the 14th century to its collapse in 1463. According to its feudal-legal nomenclature the Bosnian state belonged to the type of a medieval monarchy developed in east-central Europe.

Notched by the internal frictions, undermined by destructive demeanor of the Hungarian rulers who, keeping the Bosnian Bishop in the sphere of their own influence, interfered with its political stabilization and permanent Turkish military and economic ruination, finally insufficiently unsupported by the Catholic West, Bosnia succumbed to the indisputably stronger Ottomans. The last Bosnian King Stjepan Tomašević, as the bearer of state-dynasty legitimacy, was captured and beheaded following the orders of Sultan Fatih in Jajce in the summer of 1463.

According to the feudal-legitimist understanding, it was only Matija, the son of the former anti-king Radivoj, otherwise the brother of King Stjepan Tomaš (Tomash), who at that time could have claimed right on the Bosnian crown. The Turkish Sultan himself was aware of this, so, in his further invasion of Bosnia – after the Hungarian counter-attack in the fall of 1463 – he appointed him the Bosnian king in 1465 wanting to create the illusion of the royal power continuity. The Hungarian King Mathias Corvinus decided to take a similar step including in this game a Slavonian noble Nikola Iločki, who bore the title of the King of Bosnia for a period (1471-1477). These deceptive attempts of restoring the kingdom of Bosnia are the best illustration of how conquerors themselves had to take account of the state and adapt their plans to it. It was only for political reasons that the Turkish sultan ignored the requests of Queen Katarina (Catherine) Kosača to free her children Sigismund and Katarina (Catherine), who had been captured by the Turks in the days of the Bosnian catastrophe, which is understandable regarding the fact they were legitimate successors to the Bosnian crown. Thus, King Tomaš’s widow, alongside Queen Mara, wife of Stjepan Tomašević, became the last legitimate successor to the Bosnian crown.

Five days before her death, in her will composed on 20 October 1478 in Rome, where she took shelter in 1464, Queen Katarina (Catherine) Kosača left the claim on the Bosnian crown and the Kingdom – should her children, who had been converted to Islam, not return to the Christian faith – to the Holy See and the Roman Curia.

The subsequent course of the events did not make it possible to implement the will of the penultimate Bosnian Queen. The area of the former Bosnian kingdom was fully incorporated within the Bosnian Pashaluk by the Ottoman Empire after the fall of the Hungarian Banate of Jajce in 1527.

Hence, using scientific vocabulary we cannot speak about a thousand-year continuity of the Bosnian statehood today, since there is no legal continuity between the Bosnian Kingdom and the Bosnian Pashaluk. However, it is possible to speak about one kind of continuity, namely the continuity of tradition which was preserved within the Province of the Franciscan Order of Bosna Srebrena (Bosnia Argentina) as well as in the emigrant circles of the Bosnian Catholic population and clergy in West Europe of that time.

Insisting on this myth today serves only daily political interests of establishing ownership rights over the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its further destruction.

The myth of the ideal Bosnian coexistence

Simultaneously with the pseudo-scientific thesis on the continuous Bosnian statehood from the Muslim-Bosniak side, the myth of ideal Bosnian coexistence is being placed. How harmful and dangerous these theses are is, among other things, illustrated by a recent statement of one municipal leader from Vareš, who in a dispute with the local friars emphasized the alleged mercy of Sultan Mehmed El-Fatih in treating the Bosnian Catholics in 1463, to which, well, their descendants today return ingratitude. The real picture of Bosnian coexistence as a historical category created in the centuries-long contact of different cultural-civilizing and religious values is far from ideal and cannot be used as a model for solving of its current problems which arose after the collapse of the communist system, the war destruction and post war brokering.

The phenomenon of Bosnian coexistence was formed during the four-century-long Ottoman occupation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, when denominational circumstances in this area became more complicated and exacerbated. It was then that Bosnia and Herzegovina became a meeting point and crossroads of four civilizations: Western-European-Catholic, Byzantine-Orthodox, Oriental-Islamic and Jewish, and all this in the state-political framework of the Ottoman-theocratic Empire. The four denominational groups remained mostly within their ossified psychosocial frameworks, in a kind of latent antagonism which grew parallel with the crisis of the Ottoman administrative and economic system. This phenomenon can be located primarily in the world of so-called “high culture”, which Ivo Andrić wrote about in his both glorified and disputed Letter from 1920:

But there have always been a lot of false bourgeois courtesy in the Bosnian civil circles, wisely deceiving themselves and others using sound words and an empty ceremonial. This somehow hides the hatred, but does not do away with it and does not stop it from growing. I fear that even under the cover of all the contemporary maxims, the old instincts and Cainitic plans may be napping in these circles, and that they will live on until the bases of the material and spiritual life in Bosnia have been changed.

On the other hand, in the domain of the so-called folk culture, there are processes of coalescing and mutual grafting of cultural events – creating a whole new cultural quality. In fact, “just coming down into the world of everyday life and folk culture, we can observe a complementary dimension of the isolated life of the three high cultures, and assemble a complete picture of life in Bosnia.” It is best evident in the folk art (craft), vocabulary, diet, clothing, housing and dwelling, which means, in all vital manifestations of life. This is the ambivalence in which the life and co-life of the denominational groups in Bosnia and Herzegovina went on with their heavy mental burden resulting from their reliance on out-of-Bosnia cultural and political centers respectively – the habit which even today makes them “extrapolated peoples” (S. M. Džaja).

The state of the Bosnian spirit between a latent hatred and a true idyll was defined by the author of book Labirint i pamćenje (Maze and Memory) (later titled Unutarnja zemlja/Internal Land) in his interview to Zagreb’s Erasmus in the spring of 1993:

The spiritual state in Bosnia could be at the same time defined as the state of both latent hatred and a true idyll, being completely right in both cases […]. The shape this ambivalent state would take at one moment depended solely on the specific political constellation. It is evident that the state we are witnessing today is a result of a dreadfully negative political constellation. It has just unearthed and taken advantage of the existing hatred-shaped substratum of the Bosnian living. In other words, the way Bosnia would take in history depended solely on a political life input, and if it is so, and I am certain it is, then it, unfortunately means that Bosnia had not had a chance to build its own sustainable political subjectivity, which essentially is its historical tragedy.

What it is all about, according to S. M. Džaja, is the fact that the three culture systems and three mutually distinct societies […] occurred during Ottoman Empire, which have been increasingly mutually interwoven by modern history since the Austro-Hungarian invasion, however, neither having touched their distinctions nor having succeeded in taking them into a contemporary authentic political consensus. The way out of this state the same author finds in the following:

The key to the future of Bosnia is not, actually in the restitution of its model, which, according to some fantasts, had been completed in as early as 1609 and which could serve as an organization pattern of modern Europe, rather than in an accurate diagnosis of all its cultural values; in search of a new model in the spirit of a growing mutual respect and recognition, in practicing a free political discourse […]. What the true future of Bosnia will be will not depend only on the activities of international political factors, but perhaps even more in true readiness of the political elite for an authentic consensus or, again, on their further insistence on reconquista, strife and anarchy.

Continuation of a historiographical war

Intoxication with history and unconditioned tendency to always present arguments for anything relating to history, among all other reasons, has paved the way for the most recent tragedy of Bosnia and Herzegovina. And what is actually history? Is it possible to comprise it in its entirety or does it just entrust us with what it wants itself? On the pages of the preface to Löwith’s book, World History and Occurrence of Salvation, the Goethe’s reply to this question has been written down:

Even if you could illuminate and study all the sources: what would you find? Nothing but one big long-known truth whose confirmation does not require going far away: namely, the truth that everything was miserable at all times and in all states. People have always feared and suffered; tortured and abused one another; made this short life of other people miserable, not being able to appreciate nor enjoy the beauty of the world and the sweetness of existence, given to them by this wonderful world. Just few merrily enjoyed it. After experiencing life throughout a certain period of time, the majority most probably wanted to abandon it, rather than to start from scratch. What used to make them or what still makes them attached to life was and still is the fear of dying. This is what it is, this is what it was; this is what it will probably be. This is a man’s destiny. Do we really need further evidence?

In exactly so far as we are today from the mere possibility to reach a just and lasting peace, after the Dayton peace improvisation, we are as far from a scientific consensus on the contentious issues of the history of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is indicative how the solving of these issues is conditioned by one another and how closely they have been connected with each other.

If it is not out of place to predict, then it will be necessary to say that there is little hope, better to say, there is not a single reason for being optimistic for these issues to be positively resolved in the foreseeable future. Another option is more likely, i.e. that a violent division of Bosnia and Herzegovina on an ethnic basis will follow the continuation of a long-initiated and never declared historiographical war, now also intensified by mutually committed crimes. The indications of this process have already been present in history and historiography textbooks, in which, as if by command, the old myths have been reached out for. So, each people, along with a part of the territory won, will also have the sad privilege of their own historiography colored with legends and myths. They themselves will do their best never to allow these hatreds and atavisms to be extinguished; naturally, new ones will blaze up, too.

What will remain for those who do not succumb to this “messianic” call, is a painstaking but an appreciated way of dealing with the ossified stereotypes of positivistic-romantic-autistic reflection of history. One of the possible approaches is offered by the history of culture; having ample materials, they could write the survival history in the past of Bosnia and Herzegovina starting from proto-Illyrian time to present day, catch an artist or craftsman’s movement, tattoos and wood carving, vocabulary and clothing, sepulchral architecture and folk embroidery, diet and housing and dwelling. They could recognize life in all of its numerous and magnificent forms.

This turning-point in historiography should be founded on the premise that history here has never happened but just reflected, guided by the Löwith’s thought:

Although intending to modernize the opinion of other periods and other people, historical awareness must start from itself alone. The generations living today should acquire, reflect and study history all over again. We may or may not understand the old authors in light of our contemporary prejudices, as we read the book of history backwards starting from the last to the first page.

Adhering to these principles, a Bosnian historian would have this tremendous privilege to present to his fellow countrymen this sensitive speech of different cultures and civilizations which, independent of their ideological barriers, have been conducting this substantial dialogue on this ground for centuries. In this way, it would become crystal clear that a civilization is at the same time both an existence and a movement, and that civilizations or cultures in all their abundant manifestation of oceans of customs, forcing situations, consents, decisions, confirmations, which are all sheer realities to all of us appearing to be personal and spontaneous in spite of frequently coming from afar (F. Braudel).

Univ. Prof. Dubravko Lovrenović is one of the leading European Medievalist specialized in the Balkans, pre-modern and modern political history

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Notes:
1 This work was initially published in the journal Erazmus (Zagreb, 1996), and after that its extended version also appeared in the author’s book Bosanska kvadratura kruga [Squaring the Bosnian circle] (Dobra knjiga, Sarajevo, 2012).
2. I should mention that in the first version of this paper published in 1996, I supported the thesis – which, later turned out to be wrong – that the first Bosnian king was crowned by the Vicar of the Bosnian Franciscan vicarage.

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Vietnam: Washington’s New Friend In Asia Pacific – Analysis

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By Darshana M. Baruah*

The Asia Pacific region is currently undergoing some tense and significant developments. The South China Sea (SCS) dispute is garnering much more global attention than it did five years ago, given the increasing possibility of an armed conflict. Although tension in the region is not a new phenomenon, the region is witnessing some crucial changes in the strategic and security domain.

Amidst the chaos of warnings over land reclamation activities, unilateral actions, diplomatic protests and vessel ramming, the region is also witnessing a new and important friendship between Washington and Hanoi. Vietnam is an important player in the Asia-Pacific region and the US now appears to be more determined to push forward its rebalance priorities. For both the nations, China is a rising concern. Vietnam is struggling to protect its claims against China and realises the need for external support in its territorial dispute in the SCS.

Hanoi and Washington now appear to be moving past the memories of the Vietnam War finding a common ground with shared goals. The ground is the SCS and the goal is balancing an assertive China. The US is looking for nations to partner with to further its “pivot” and Vietnam is not going to shy away from a strong support against Beijing in its dispute in the South China Sea. While it would be incorrect to underpin the reason of this developing relationship entirely on China, the current security environment in the region definitely has played a favourable factor.

Washington’s announcement on the pivot in 2012 has received a bit of criticism for not really defining it and most importantly for its strategic absence from the region. Friends and allies began to question the intent of this pivot and if Washington would actually extend its support in the event of an armed conflict in the SCS either between China-Philippines or China-Japan in the East China Sea. Analysts began to talk of a weakening American dominance in the Asia-Pacific seriously affecting Washington’s credibility regarding the pivot.

US may have had all the intention to pursue its pivot but problems back home was challenging Washington’s ability to be present in the region at a scale that was required. When President Obama cancelled its Asia tour in 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang ventured out on a “charm offensive” in South East Asia, stressing on regional cooperation and regional security.

What China was trying to tell the region was that South East Asia does not need the US or other extra regional actors to maintain peace and stability. Washington’s inability to reassure its regional friends led to Beijing taking on a leadership role in the region both in the security and economic domain.

In the following two years, China continued to strengthen its relationship with its regional neighbours through impressive economic deals while growing more assertive in its claims in the SCS. Between 2013 and now, Beijing declared a unilateral Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over East China Sea, refused to resolve its disputes in an UN tribunal court, blocked Philippines navy from reaching its own garrison in the SCS, rammed and fired water cannons on Vietnamese vessels, placed an oil rig in Hanoi’s EEZ and is building artificial islands with airstrips and lighthouses to consolidate its claims and establish its authority.

Establishing the ADIZ was a grim reminder of the political vacuum created by the United States and no one to check China’s unilateral actions. In 2014, Beijing began to make its presence felt in the Indian Ocean and portray that it is now gearing up to project power beyond its shores. Chinese ventures into the Indian Ocean combined with the Maritime Silk Road have forced Washington to rethink its strategy in the Asia-Pacific. It was perhaps with the signing of the US-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region, that Washington began to pick up its pace in the region. The US now appears to be more focused on the Asia-Pacific rebalance and engaging with possible actors in creating a strong regional security architecture.

If the US is looking to create and maintain a strong presence in the Asia Pacific, Vietnam is more than willing to be a part of this network. This new dimension in this relationship was reflected through Vietnam’s Minister of Public Security Tran Dai Quang’s visit to Washington in March 2015. While the international media failed to pick up this development, Quang made quite an impact with his visit meeting with officials from Department of Homeland Security, FBI, and other US officials. The discussion went beyond public security and covered security and defense matter. The US and Vietnam are now particularly looking to collaborate on maritime security a win-win for both the nations.

The month of May gave us an insight into Washington’s vision for the region with the flying of a US Surveillance plane near China’s artificial islands, a strong message to China during the Shangri La Dialogue and Ashton Carter beginning his State visit to Vietnam. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter is currently on a Asia-Pacific tour to emphasise on “a regional approach to maritime security, build relationships with key partners and seek out new areas of defense cooperation, all as part of the ‘next phase of the rebalance”. While in Vietnam he said he will “urge Vietnamese officials to give up their reclamation projects in the South China Sea” and has pledged $18 million to help Hanoi buy maritime patrol vessels. The two sides also signed a “Joint Vision Statement” to guide their future defence relations. The statement draws from the MoU signed in 2011 and pledges to cooperate in “maritime security, aligned with international laws and the law of each country”. This statement marks a new beginning in US-Vietnam relations especially in defense and security front and has come a long way since establishing diplomatic ties in 1995. Vietnam’s General Secretary of the Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong will be on his first visit to the US in June this year.

The underlying tone of this friendship is the changing dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region with Washington easing its arms embargo on Vietnam in October 2014. The US recognises Vietnam as an important factor in its rebalance strategy and is committed in strengthening Vietnam’s maritime capabilities. When Washington partially lifted its arms embargo on Hanoi, it was restricted to only acquiring maritime surveillance and security related systems. Now, US Senator John McCain is advocating selling more ‘defensive weapons’ to Vietnam in the event of an increasing tension with China in the region.

It may take a while for the two nations to completely put aside their notions left over from the war, but US-Vietnam ties are definitely improving and may emerge as a strong partnership in the changing security realm of the Asia-Pacific. What is important is that Washington’s new friend in the region is willing to work on the challenges in the bilateral relationship and tap in to the opportunities in the maritime domain.

The US is re-focusing on its relationship with the region and Ashton Carter’s current visit provides a glimpse of the policy priorities for the region in Washington. Carter will visit India in the last leg of his Asia-Pacific tour. For some time now, New Delhi has positioned itself as a natural choice for Hanoi. It will also be interesting to see the outcome of Carter’s visit to India in the backdrop of the new Washington-Hanoi friendship.

*The writer is a Junior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

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Georgia’s Former President Saakashvili Appointed Governor Of Odessa: Implications For Georgia And Ukraine – Analysis

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By Maia Otarashvili*

President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has appointed Georgia’s former President Mikheil Saakashvili the new governor of Ukraine’s key Odessa region. It is difficult to decipher the bizzare news, but considering the implications this move could have for both Ukraine and Georgia, the issue merits some meditation.

How are Georgians reacting?

What caused the biggest outrage in Georgia was the fact that by accepting the Ukrainian citizenship (required by Ukrainian law in order for one to take office in government) Saakashvili automatically lost, thus deliberately gave up, his Georgian citizenship. It is certainly an unorthodox move for a former president of one country to first give up citizenship of his own country, and second take political office in another country, especially a position that is of much lower rank than that of a presidential office.

Georgian citizenship is something Georgian politicians have taken lightly for a long time,[1] but we’ve seen it used as a tool of political maneuvering recently. In the 2012 parliamentary elections when the Georgian Dream Coalition was formed under the leadership of billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, his lack of Georgian citizenship became an issue. According to Georgian citizenship laws, one automatically loses Georgian citizenship when accepting another. However, it is viewed as a mere technicality, as Georgia allows its citizens to have dual citizenship, which is achieved by requesting to be “granted Georgian citizenship by law of exception.” Ivanishvili had become a Russian and a French citizen, and had never reapplied for Georgian citizenship. Legally he was not allowed to run for office. He later gave up his Russian citizenship and asked for Georgian citizenship—a process that was dragged out for months, and put on a public display by Saakashvili’s government, adding to the already high pre-election campaign pressures. To be sure, this was a process Saakashvili himself was directly involved in, as granting Georgian citizenship is the president’s job there.

Ukraine on the other hand does not allow dual citizenship. Whoever becomes a citizen of Ukraine has to give up his/her other citizenship within two years of obtaining Ukrainian citizenship. In a recent interview given to the Georgian television channel Imedi, Saakashvili, among many other things, explained the reasoning behind this move. It appears that: (1) he sees the issue of citizenship as a technicality to comply with the bureaucratic requirements of taking political office in Ukraine; (2) he does plan to return to Georgia with the hopes of reentering Georgian politics; and (3) he believes in his Georgian supporters more than they believe in him. He thinks all of this will be undone soon, with support of his Georgian voters.

In the interview Saakashvili said that “taking away my Georgian citizenship is the [Georgian] president’s prerogative [this would be in the form of the president rejecting Saakashvili’s application for being granted Georgian citizenship by the law of exception]. If he decides to take my citizenship away, I am sure, this will not be a deciding factor, because for the moment when I return to Georgia, and this will happen much sooner than many imagine, people will make them rescind the indictments against me as well as the act of stripping me of my Georgian citizenship.” Moreover, he went on to explain how he does not see the lack of citizenship as an obstacle. “Eduard Shevardnadze was not a Georgian citizen when he went to Georgia and became its leader; nor was Ivanishvili, when he was running around, conducting his pre-election campaign and became the leader of Georgia. Thus citizenship issue was never an obstacle for anyone, why should it become one for me?”

While he may be technically correct, Saakashvili may have strongly miscalculated this move. Let us set aside for a moment the implications this move will have on Ukraine. All along, Saakashvili has still believed that a comeback as Georgia’s leader was possible for him. He has been counting on the incompetence of the current government—if they bring enough poverty and setbacks to Georgia (which the current Georgian government has already partly achieved), Saakashvili and his party would then regain the people’s confidence, and would be “obligated” to return by popular demand. The Georgian Dream Coalition government may be losing approval ratings due to the worsening economic conditions in the country (the lari has been plummeting since November 2014), but this does not automatically mean that there will be popular demand for Saakashvili in Georgia any time soon (a recent National Democratic Institute poll shows that only 16% of Georgians would vote for Saakashvili’s party). Additionally, if there was any possibility of Saakashvili regaining popularity in Georgia by some miracle, those chances have now been severely diminished thanks to his Ukrainian venture.

The president in exile waited for the Georgian officials to drop charges, but ran out of patience. As he expressed,

…what does Georgian citizenship mean to me today?! Today for me Georgian citizenship means sitting in a prison cell, along with my other friends… therefore, this is purely a matter of formality, although I wanted to avoid it. … I cannot go to Georgia, whether I am a citizen or not, what difference does it make. Therefore as soon as the people make them [the government] void the indictments, when the time comes, they will also resolve the issue of my citizenship. I will distance myself from this formality, but I will always be nearby, whenever the Georgian people desire, if they need me for anything.

Browsing local headlines, this move appears to be seen as a betrayal by many Georgians. Saakashvili and his team are infamous for their impeccable PR skills, yet for someone who wants to return to Georgian politics one day, this is a huge miscalculation. Even his supporters, or what is left of them, are seeing this as a negative move. Georgian government officials have openly condemned his actions. The current president Margvelashvili called it “dishonorable behavior,” saying that with this move Saakashvili has “disgraced the country and the institution of presidency. … A former president should not have given up Georgian citizenship. … Values are more important than career, and these values include being a Georgian citizen. His behavior is incomprehensible to me.”

What does this mean for Ukraine?

So, what is Odessa inheriting from Georgia in Saakashvili? His reforms took Georgia from a nearly failed state to a booming tourist destination with a rapidly growing economy. Foreign direct investment began pouring in thanks to the highly favorable investing conditions Saakashvili created. Rampant corruption and crime disappeared and gave way to high GDP growth rates, free and fair elections, and westernization. The rapid reforms came at a high price for Georgia’s democracy, however. Saakashvili was never able to let go of the power that he had to concentrate in his own hands in the first place in order to effectively implement the reforms. Towards the end of his presidency it became clear that crucial democratic reforms had taken a backseat to the president’s insatiable appetite for contemplating and implementing major development projects in Georgia. At some point Saakashvili swapped out, or even mistook, development for democracy and became unapologetic about being the sole decision-maker in Georgia.

As we’ve already seen, American, Georgian (Saakashvili’s teammates), and Lithuanian individuals were granted Ukrainian citizenship since Poroshenko came into office, so they could take key positions in government. Saakashvili himself was Poroshenko’s advisor on a freelance basis until recently. He had been offered official government positions in Ukraine but had not accepted them. When asked why he turned down these jobs he cited various reasons. Sometimes it was the fact that he did not understand Ukrainian political culture and did not think he could be a part of it. He also said that he did not want to give up his Georgian citizenship (as he was still hoping the charges against him would be dropped and he would return to Georgia after the long exile). And lastly, in an interview earlier this year he expressed that he had reservations over the idea of “having to play nice with others” by working with other political actors in order to achieve consensus to get things done. It looks like the complete autonomy of power is something that Saakashvili is still strongly keen on. Based on Poroshenko’s speech announcing Saakashvili’s appointment, it looks like Saakashvili got exactly that, a full carte blanche to do what he pleases with Odessa, as long as he achieves there what he achieved in Georgia—rapid development and modernization through even faster and effective overnight reforms.

Putting the issue of democracy aside, Saakashvili is likely to achieve these goals in Odessa, but as with Georgia, what will be the cost of this success? Odessa is a region of high strategic importance for Ukraine, but also for Putin’s strategic agenda. Appointing Saakashvili as the head of that region is a direct insult to Putin who infamously despises Saakashvili.[2] If this is not a step back in Ukraine’s attempts at ending the war in its eastern territories, it is certainly not a step forward either. Additionally, now there is a new scenario where Saakashvili could be setting himself up for losing another war with Russia, this time in Odessa.

Yes, Ukraine is desperate for immediate reforms, and there is not enough capacity domestically to implement them effectively. Thus the international community should gladly welcome any bold steps that Poroshenko takes towards achieving that goal. However, the most baffling part in this story is that all of Saakashvili’s competence and expertise could be very effectively utilized from behind the scenes had he chosen to do so, without risking further worsening of already lethal Ukraine-Russia relations.

About the author:
*Maia Otarashvili
is a Research Fellow and Program Coordinator for FPRI’s Project on Democratic Transitions. She holds an M.A. in Globalization, Development and Transition from the University of Westminster in London, with emphasis on post-authoritarian transitions.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI

Notes

[1] Vast number of Georgian government officials, current and past, have dual citizenships. The practice of “bringing back” a successful Georgian from abroad and awarding them Georgian citizenship before appointing them to a government position was one that Saakashvili used quite frequently.
[2] For the second half of Saakashvili’s presidency Georgia and Russia did not even have diplomatic ties. The August 2008 war between Georgia and Russia got very personal between the two leaders and since then they do not attempt to conceal their hatred for each other in public.

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Nepal Earthquake: Prelude To Bigger Disaster? – Analysis

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Poverty, weak governance, unchecked urbanization increase Himalaya region’s vulnerability to earthquakes and other natural disasters.

By Alark Saxena*

With tremors declining in magnitude and emergency relief crews packing to leave, Nepal is likely to slip from the world’s attention. But the unstable geological condition that brought the latest disaster still lurks. Unless the government seizes this moment, Nepal will face new calamities. The human tragedy in Nepal costing more than 8,000 lives is a warning to countries in the Himalayan region nestled on the moving tectonic plates to transform relief operations into long-term preparations against devastating earthquakes.

The devastation from the Nepal earthquake highlights the vulnerability of populations living across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Poverty, migration from rural to urban areas and uncontrolled urban development compound the damage and disasters associated with natural hazards like earthquakes in the region.

Nepal’s earthquake should not have come as a surprise. A 2001 study ranked Kathmandu first among vulnerable cities that can expect thousands of fatalities in an earthquake. A similar earthquake in 1934 for Nepal as well as those for Afghanistan in 2002, India in 2005 and Pakistan in 2008 were responsible for massive loss of life and property in the region. Geologically, the continuous sinking of the Indian tectonic plate below the Eurasian plate – lifting the relatively young Himalayan Mountains at least 55 million years old – also contributes to earthquakes long warned by researchers.

Many regions in the world including Japan, Chile and California frequently experience earthquakes with little impact. These countries have developed the capacity to handle such hazards. Despite warnings from seismologists and technologies available for disaster preparation, there is no guarantee of safety for Himalayan communities in Afghanistan, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar and Pakistan.

The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is one of the most geologically and environmentally sensitive regions in the world – the biologically diverse and sensitive landscapes are considered among the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change. Natural systems are under pressure for a number of reasons: Rapid population growth in the region has led to reduced opportunities in rural areas. The promise of a better life in the cities contributes to rapid migration from rural to urban areas. The urban population of the Himalayas has more than doubled since the 1980s. Kathmandu like many other Himalayan metropolises is now home to more than a million people. Growing demand for housing combined with poor governance has allowed construction of structurally poor buildings in unstable and hazard-prone areas. Zoning and building regulations are often completely disregarded. According to a USAID fact report in Nepal, the 1994 building codes are not well enforced; on average, two engineers are available in a municipality where 400 building permits are issued every year.

Cities like Istanbul, Islamabad and Delhi are prone to similar development and vulnerable to earthquakes. According to many vulnerability reports, the chances of surviving an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Richter scale are much lower in Islamabad as compared to San Francisco or Tokyo. Compared to the Nepal earthquake, Chile experienced an earthquake of magnitude 8.2 in 2014 with a total loss of six lives. A May 30 earthquake in a remote area of Japan, magnitude 7.8, occurred with no loss to life or infrastructure.

The Nepal earthquake and the underlying conditions laying the groundwork for disastrous outcomes highlight how poverty, weak governance and uncontrolled urbanization increase human vulnerability. Such systemic conditions drive poor populations to live in hazard-prone regions, often becoming the main victims in disasters, not just in Nepal, but throughout the Himalayan region. A recent study suggests that more than 38 cities in the Indian Himalayas are not prepared for such an earthquake and 60 percent of Indian sub-continental landmass is vulnerable to the northward shift of the tectonic plates.

Disaster preparedness, including risk identification, reduction, early warning, and capacity building, has been proven to reduce calamities. However, these long-term measures are often mired in the politics and corruption of development.

Rescue and relief operations attract more funding than the steady preparation for events that may not occur. Disaster responses are high-adrenaline events. Response teams are flown in with millions of dollars of aid. Relief and rescue organizations, partly due to lack of capacity of local government, eagerly move forward to provide relief while governments typically play catchup in coordinating the flow of financial and material aid. Often, the short-term response as in the case of Nepal is not well integrated in building a long-term strategy. Further, the long-term response is simply left to local governments with limited financial and technical support. The challenge is to transfer the relief efforts from aid organizations to sustainable long-term development by the local government.

Even during the early stages of response, actions can exacerbate entrenched problems or foster vibrant and resilient urban centers.

The government of Nepal should coordinate relief work with a long-term vision. The shift from relief to rebuilding must incorporate policies that tackle the systemic reasons contributing to the disaster. The government should seek expertise from countries experienced in minimizing earthquake risks, including Japan and the United States. Experts can identify vulnerable regions and structures and advise on establishing strong zoning and building codes.

Nepal’s government must focus relief efforts on the urgent needs of rural areas, going unseen by the mainstream media yet exposed through social media. Lack of untimely response in rural areas can exacerbate human suffering and increase migration over the long term, recreating the cycle of urban vulnerability.

International NGOs must ensure that their urgent and immediate relief efforts do not undermine the authority of the local government. Loss of trust in the local administration can create a power vacuum, and the government can struggle to reestablish credibility or engage with local communities for long-term development. For example, in Nepal, the government system is relatively new and fragile. During the relief work, local and international media accused the government of red tape and inefficient relief operations.

In supporting relief efforts, donors should contribute not just to the big NGO’s, but also to small- and medium-sized organizations that have long-term commitment in the region. Identifying local organizations and supporting their outreach are among the best ways to construct a strong supportive network once large organizations readjust priorities. Local organizations like Kathmandu Living Labs, which develop open data, promoting civic technologies like mapping, have showcased their usefulness in relief efforts and should be encouraged to stay committed to the region.

The earthquake disaster can revitalize preventive actions and make risk reduction a part of the culture. Hindu Kush Himalayan countries should mobilize their local administrations to systematically assess and identify hazards, including earthquake-prone infrastructure – existing or planned residential buildings, roads, airports, bridges and dams – in this geologically sensitive region. Such assessments could provide opportunities for cross- border collaboration on preparedness.

The earthquake has shown new ways of international partnerships. Neighboring countries like India and China led immediate relief and rescue operations while countries like the United States, United Kingdom, Turkey, Israel, Japan and others flew in aid missions. These partnerships could be further strengthened for systematic cross-border preparedness plans that can be put into action anywhere in the region.

Building community resilience through active identification and prevention of risks, capacity- building of civil society and local administration, and improved preparedness, relying on available low-cost techniques, are an imperative, not luxury, for these Himalayan countries. Governments, NGOs and donor communities must work together in the Hindu Kush Himalayas for lasting change.

*Alark Saxena is program director of the Yale Himalaya Initiative and a lecturer at the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University.

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India, Vietnam And Eurasian Economic Union Deepen Economic Integration – Analysis

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Since the launch of Doi Moi (Renovation) in 1986, Vietnam has leapfrogged from a centrally planned economy to a market-driven one and has undertaken comprehensive reforms to make the economy market-friendly. The various market-oriented reforms have helped encourage competition among economic units, which have helped boost the nation’s gross national wealth. There were three thrust areas where the reforms were focussed: improvement of institutions with enabling motives, stabilisation of macroeconomic situations and pro-active integration into the regional and world economy.

In a world of increasing economic interdependence, the economies of nations are so closely interlinked that any adverse development in one country can have crippling effect on other nations. This calls for constant coordination of policies that serve the common goals – that is fostering economic prosperity across nations and beyond boundaries. The regional and international organisations dealing with economic issues also help in mitigating contending issues when they arise.

Besides, there is a flurry of bilateral and institutional arrangements across continents that also facilitate economic integration process. In this, Vietnam is a front runner in becoming proactive in fostering international economic integration and enhanced all available opportunities to boost external trade. Besides signing bilateral trade agreements, Vietnam joined the Association of South East Asian nations (ASEAN) and the associated Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 1995. In 1998, it joined the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Since 2000, Vietnam has accelerated the economic integration process and entered into the most comprehensive bilateral trade arrangement with the US, before entering into various multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) within the ASEAN framework such as ASEAN-China FTA, ASEAN-Korea FTA, ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA, ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership, ASEAN-India FTA. In 2007, it became a member of the World Trade Organisation. These however did not complete Vietnam’s economic integration process.

Vietnam started negotiations with the Eurasian (Economic) Customs Union (EEU) of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia in March 2013. This was concluded in December 2014 in Vietnam’s Kien Giang province in a ceremony witnessed by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. The document was signed on 29 May 2015 in the village of Burabay (Kazakhstan) at the meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council after finalising some technical details. The EEU is an international economic union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Armenia. The agreement is the first international comprehensive preferential document with a country of the Asia-Pacific region that EEU signed regulating all aspects associated with the movement of goods and services such as reducing or waiving tariffs for many goods, and that creates a free trade zone between the EEU and a third party. Russian Prime Minister Medvedev was quoted to having said that the FTA “will reduce or waive tariffs for many goods”, though tariff protection will remain for some of the more sensitive categories. The parties also signed an agreement on the movement of ozone-depleting substances and products containing them and the tracking of ozone-depleting substances in the mutual trade between the member states of the Customs Union and the Single Economic Space.

Which way Vietnam is going to benefit apart from tariff reduction? The FTA with EEU is not only in pursuance with Vietnam’s open-door economic integration strategy, but it would also facilitate liberalisation of trade and result in higher economic and trade cooperation between Vietnam and the EEU, apart from boosting investment. Specifically, the FTA covers trade, custom facilitation, intellectual property, investment, legal issues, military industries, rules of origin, animal and plant quarantine, and lifting legal and technical barriers to trade. From now on, Vietnamese exports can enjoy preferential tariff treatment and that would facilitate increased exports of agricultural products, seafood, textile and garments, and wooden furniture. Similarly, good imported from the EEU shall receive preferential tariffs and these include machinery, vehicles and livestock products.

Vietnam and Russia aim to have their bilateral trade to reach $10 billion by 2020. Currently, Russia has invested $2 billion in 104 projects in Vietnam, including $1.12 billion in 32 projects in the manufacturing and processing sector. Twenty-seven per cent of Russian investment is in the oil and gas sector. This is distributed as $ 1 billion in Binh Dinh province, $129.5 million in Hanoi, and $52 million in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province. After the US and the West imposed economic sanctions over the Ukraine crisis, Russia started diversifying its agricultural imports when sources such as from Australia, Canada and the European Union dried up following sanctions. According to World Trade Organization, agricultural products accounted for 21.6 per cent of Vietnam’s exports to Russia in 2013. Vietnam’s exports of seafood products to Russia totalled $61.3 million in the first quarter of 2014. As Russia seeks trade alternatives, the FTA with Russia shall help this figure to rise.

How does this development impact India-Vietnam relations? The answer to the question can be only positive. Vietnam’s open economy policy complements with India’s on-going market reforms. Both the countries have found a great deal of commonality in the economic, political and security/strategic domains. Historical bonds help this policy as well. Defence cooperation and particularly cooperation between the navies of the two countries hone the partnership. China’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea and muscle-flexing ventures make the rest of Asia feel unease. India is always on board with Vietnam in supporting and if necessary would not be found wanting to defend its own national interests. India is engaged in oil exploration activities on the invitation of Vietnam in the areas of South China Sea that are claimed by Vietnam and would not hesitate to intervene if any outside power poses a threat to its activities.

Moreover, India has a very close relationship with Russia since during the cold war days. It still maintains a robust relationship in the defence sector, duly complemented by the economic benefits unleashed by its market economy policy. With already strong ties with Vietnam and with Vietnam reaching out to Russia and other Central Asian nation, India-Vietnam-Russia trilateral ties gain traction. This trilateral partnership shall also serve well to cope with the China challenge.

Relevance to India

How is the Vietnam-EEU FTA going to impact India’s economic footprint in the region? It is likely to be significant. This major step towards economic integration between Eurasian region and Southeast Asia is going to be significant in boosting India’s trade in the region. The Vietnam-EEU FTA deal is to be soon followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s planned visit to five central Asian nations in July 2015 that is clubbed with his maiden visit to Russia for the BRIC summit in Ufa on 8-9 July. Modi’s planned trip to the central Asian countries is being perceived as an ‘energy trip’ as India eyes to tap the huge natural resources including hydrocarbon and uranium. Modi plans to spend a day each in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. He is also expected to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in the same city on 9-10 July.

India has remained as an observer in this regional grouping for years and is keen to be elevated as a full member. Though it would be premature to hazard a guess on the deliverables from the single day trips to the five Central Asian countries, the message is loud and clear that a key objective behind India’s increasing engagements with this part of Asia is also to expand its presence and footprint in the periphery of China. Vietnam shall be too happy to this move by India. Not only their interests coalesce on the issue of China, the opening of this new frontier shall be conducive to further their economic integration strategies.

Also significant to note is the significance of President Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Belarus in early June, days after the FTA deal. Belarus is a member of EEU and Belarus and India are expected to discuss India joining EEU during Mukherjee’s visit. India, India should take the cue from the Vietnam-EEU FTA in deciding to join the EEU.

As is elsewhere, Beijing has made huge inroads in the region, with which it shares geographical boundaries, by laying pipelines to harness hydrocarbon and constructing railway and road network to connect Europe via Central Asia. Despite geographical proximity, India seems to have neglected somewhat this part of Asia despite the region’s strategic importance and abundant natural resources. Prime ministerial trips to Central Asia have been few and Modi’s planned visit shall bridge this gap. For the record, while former Prime Minister Narsimha Rao visited four of the five central Asian states immediately after the dissolution of Soviet Union, Manmohan Singh made two separate trips to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan during his decade-long tenure as Prime Minister. Atal Bihari Vajpayee too had visited Almaty during his premiership. In comparison leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have been in Delhi on several occasions since 1991.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev was the chief guest at 2009 Republic Day celebrations. That time, the two sides signed a deal for supply of uranium. India had received consignments of yellow cake from Kazakhstan in succeeding years. India is eyeing to harness crude oil from Kazakhstan besides natural gas from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury observes in the Economic Times: ““However, lack of road and sea access has not allowed India to realise full trade potential with the region. This could change after India develops the Chabahar port in Iran and will use the nation as a transit for Central Asia. India’s defence ties with some countries of the region have been upgraded in recent years. India also shares historical bonds with Central Asia and enjoys goodwill in the region, thanks to its ties with the erstwhile Soviet Union of which the nations were a part.”

In conformity with the vast potentials for expanding economic cooperation, India too is negotiating a free trade agreement with the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. A joint India-Russia working group was established in November 2014 to negotiate a comprehensive FTA between India and the Customs Union. As most of the developed world in the West is suffering from an economic slowdown, the developing world has been stepping up efforts to bring their economies closer. Even for the Customs Union, the advantages of establishing a FTA with India look attractive. Compared to China, India enjoys a demographic dividend with a bulging youth population whose energy can be an asset in fostering economic growth. India’s population has ballooned to 1.2 billion. In contrast, China adopted strict measures to curtail births and this measure of one-child policy prevented the births of 300 million people in the last three decades. India’s this competitive edge vis-a-vis China is well noticed by its partners. At present, the economic relations of the members of the Customs Union do not reflect the potentials and if the FTA is signed, the openings to expand economic relations shall expand further. India’s democratic structure also works to its advantage.

The European member countries see a clear disadvantage in entering into a FTA with China for fear of being swamped by Chinese products as the local industries would not be able to cope with the overwhelming competition with Chinese manufacturing that a FTA would unleash. That makes India an attractive and preferred alternative. Removal of tariffs would allow Indian textile and mining industries, pharmaceuticals and information technology to enjoy comparative advantage in the markets of the EEU member countries. The fears can be minimised by quota restrictions on Indian goods and services.

Such restrictions will minimise the risks for manufacturers in the Customs Union. A FTA with India will offer advantages in other industries. Vietnam’s FTA with the Customs Union and one with India, when that happens, shall offer greater synergy for India, Vietnam and the member countries in the EEU in promoting greater trade and investment cooperation. The economic integration process would have made enough headway when complete. Political understanding by all the stakeholders shall also help.

Currently the EEU comprises Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Kyrgyzstan is likely to join the trade bloc soon and ratification procedures are underway. As said, India joining this bloc can unfold immense scope to harness the region’s resource potentials. Despite favourable political understanding that India enjoys with the countries of the region, this is not reflected at present in their economic engagement such as trade and investment, which are abysmally small. Russia shall be too happy if India becomes a partner in the bloc. The deal with Vietnam is seen as a path-breaking one. The Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Mission Viktor Khristenko described the agreement as “a historic act”. India cannot miss this golden opportunity to assess the economic benefits that could accrue if it joins the bloc as a member.

Message to China?

As regards Vietnam, according to a report in the Economic Times, it is estimated that the free trade zone will save exporters from the EEU about $40-60 million in the first year of its operation. It further says that Vietnamese companies in turn can expect savings of up to $5 -10 million a year. The FTA shall enter into force 60 days after it is ratified in accordance with national legislation in all EEU member countries and Vietnam. Though political issues were not in the agenda for discussion, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung who signed the deal for Vietnam, had a meeting with his Russian counterpart Medvedev on the sidelines wherein the latter reaffirmed Russia’s advocacy for settling disputes by peaceful means on the basis of international law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in the South China Sea region where China in recent weeks has stepped up activities on the artificial islands and taken belligerent stand vis-a-vis the US. Dung also had discussion with Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev on oil and gas issues. India’s presence in the oil and gas sectors of both Kazakhstan and Vietnam also drive India’s interests closer to the EEU member countries. Given this development, China should get the message that its unilateral decisions on the South China Sea and other territorial issues of the region are not acceptable by the rest of Asia and must learn to respect the rule of law or else its long term interests shall be adversely affected.

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INTERPOL Issues Red Notices For Former FIFA Officials And Executives

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At the request of US authorities, INTERPOL Red Notices – or international wanted persons alerts – have been issued for two former FIFA officials and four corporate executives for charges including racketeering, conspiracy and corruption.

Red Notices are one of the ways in which INTERPOL informs its member countries that an arrest warrant has been issued for an individual by a judicial authority and seeks the location and arrest of wanted persons with a view to extradition or similar lawful action.

The individuals concerned are wanted by national jurisdictions and INTERPOL’s role is to assist national police forces in identifying or locating those individuals with a view to their arrest and extradition.

A Red Notice is not an international arrest warrant, and INTERPOL cannot compel any member country to arrest the subject of a Red Notice.

The Red Notices have been issued for:

Jack Warner, Trinidad & Tobago national, former FIFA vice president and executive committee member, CONCACAF president, CFU president and Trinidad and Tobago Football Federation (TTFF) special adviser.

Nicolás Leoz, Paraguayan national, former FIFA executive committee member and CONMEBOL president.

Alejandro Burzaco, Argentine national, controlling principal of Torneos y Competencias S.A., a sports marketing business based in Argentina, and its affiliates.

Hugo Jinkis and Mariano Jinkis, Argentine nationals, controlling principals of Full Play Group S.A., a sports marketing business based in Argentina, and its affiliates.

José Margulies (also known as José Lazaro), Brazilian national, controlling principal of Valente Corp. and Somerton Ltd., broadcasting businesses.

INTERPOL’s General Secretariat does not send officers to arrest individuals who are the subject of a Red Notice. Only the law enforcement authorities of the INTERPOL member country where the individual is located have the legal authority to make an arrest.

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From Scarcity To Plenty: The Geopolitics Of A World Awash In Oil – Analysis

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More sources of supply mean energy prices are likely to stabilise at lower prices than in the last decade. The decline in US dependence on Middle Eastern oil is likely to make the US see instability in the MENA region increasingly as a European problem.

By Barry Desker*

A decade ago, there were fears that the United States would be increasingly dependent on an unstable Middle East and a hostile Venezuela for oil imports. There were worries that US natural gas prices would be determined by the price of imported LNG. Today, there is growing attention to the prospects of the United States as a LNG exporter influencing prices in Asia and Europe. The shift occurred because of the unexpected emergence of unconventional oil and gas production in North America, especially as Saudi Arabia did not reduce its oil production to stabilise prices at relatively high levels.

This development, together with renewed supply from Iraq and Libya which had previously declined because of domestic political instability as well as reduced demand arising from the economic slowdown in China and the recession in Europe and the US following the global financial crisis of 2008, resulted in a sharp fall in the oil price. Earlier projections of continued increases in demand were based on continued healthy economic growth and tighter supply. The assumption was that a lack of new sources of production would lead to rising prices for oil and natural gas and a growing emphasis on energy security as consumers tried to lock-in supplies even as alternative sources of energy were promoted. It is now recognised that the majority of these alternative sources are not commercially viable unless subsidies are provided.

Impact on global markets and power balance

For oil and natural gas importers like Singapore, the cost of domestic utilities and transportation will be reduced while lower fuel costs for the important maritime and air services sectors will have a positive impact on their financial performance. Shipyards building offshore platforms and offshore supply vessels will have a dwindling order book. The building of LNG terminals in Singapore will enable Singapore to benefit from price differentials in the Asian, European and North American gas markets. When the first LNG terminal began operations in 2013, Singapore was no longer dependent only on piped natural gas from Indonesia and Malaysia.

Two major uncertainties affect global markets. First, whether the three natural gas regional markets will merge into a single market. Currently, the natural gas price is US$2.7 per million British Thermal Units (MMBTU) in North America, $7.4per MMBTU in Europe and $7.8 per MMBTU for re-gasified LNG sold in Northeast Asia. Secondly, whether the price differential between oil and gas continues in international markets. From a thermal energy value perspective, one barrel of oil is approximately equivalent to 6 MMBTU. With oil currently at around $65 per barrel, the oil equivalent price of gas should be approximately $11 per MMBTU. However, in all the major markets, gas is trading at a discount to its oil equivalent price.

The effect of the downturn in oil prices is that the power balance has shifted from the holders of resources to consumers. It will be a period of belt tightening for oil producers, although most of them have accumulated significant dollar reserves. This explains the rise in opposition to the Maduro administration in Venezuela which cannot dispense the largesse offered under previous president Hugo Chavez. It has made Iran more ready to talk to the West to remove the effect of crippling sanctions resulting from its development of indigenous nuclear technology, including enrichment, and limited Saudi Arabia’s capacity to buy off domestic opposition through larger social welfare hand-outs.

United action by OPEC to increase oil prices by restricting supply is unlikely. Saudi Arabia has a greater motive in maintaining the current price to squeeze Iran, its political rival in the Middle East, as the Saudis are concerned about the ongoing turmoil in the region and the risk of unfriendly political realignments in neighbours such as Yemen. Nearer to Singapore, Malaysia faces increasing pressure to meet the income shortfall through cutting oil and gas subsidies as a budget deficit looms. Declining oil prices offer Indonesia an opportunity to cut back on oil subsidies now that it is a net oil importer. Importers like South Korea and Japan will also benefit from lower oil prices.

Changes in trade patterns and perspectives

Significant changes in trade patterns are likely. Russia will export more to China and East Asia, with Europe now more wary of increasing dependence on Russian oil and gas after the turmoil in Ukraine. Global markets will be affected by the declining US reliance on imported oil and the expectation that the US Congress will adopt legislation allowing an export of the American surplus. If this occurs, the US oil and gas markets will become increasingly integrated and the global integration of gas markets is likely to occur. However, it is uncertain whether the US will allow oil and gas exports.

The decline in US dependence on Middle Eastern oil is likely to make the United States see instability in the Middle East and North Africa increasingly as a European problem. After the long and inconclusive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, there will be a reluctance to expend American manpower and resources on the rising threat of the Islamic State and unstable regimes in the Middle East. While policy rhetoric about a re-balancing to Asia will be heard, US defence budgets cuts will occur and there is unlikely to be a significant increase in US military deployments in Asia. Although there will be wariness about rising Chinese economic and military capabilities, the United States will remain the paramount global military power in the decade ahead.

While attention has been focused on the shale gas revolution in the United States, future potential unconventional oil and gas producers include Argentina, China and Ukraine. Governments of these energy importers will want to exploit their resources but will be constrained by their infrastructure, water access and industry expertise. A key difference is that in the United States, underground resources are owned by the owners of the surface land. Elsewhere, the state owns these resources, giving individual land owners no incentive to exploit the reserves. They are likely to emerge as opponents of hydraulic fracking because of the perceived risks of stimulating earthquakes, the negative impact of methane leakage and concern with water management issues.

Nevertheless, the critical point is that the presence of increasing sources of supply is likely to result in energy prices stabilising at lower levels for the next decade compared to the last ten years, provided there is no major political upheaval which disrupts energy markets.

*Barry Desker is Distinguished Fellow and Bakrie Professor of Southeast Asia Policy, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University).This article was first published in the Straits Times.

The post From Scarcity To Plenty: The Geopolitics Of A World Awash In Oil – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

EIA Projects 56% Of Crude Oil Production Growth Between 2014 And 2020 Will Consist Of Light Sweet Grades – Analysis

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U.S. oil production has grown rapidly in recent years. EIA data, which reflect combined production of crude oil and lease condensate, show a rise from 5.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 7.5 million b/d in 2013, and a record 1.2 million b/d increase to 8.7 million b/d in 2014.

Increasing production of light crude oil in low-permeability or tight resource formations in regions like the Bakken, Permian Basin, and Eagle Ford (often referred to as light tight oil) account for nearly all the net growth in U.S. crude oil production. Roughly 90% of the nearly 3.0 million b/d growth in production between 2011 and 2014 consists of sweet grades with an API gravity of 40 or above.

Last week, EIA published U.S. Crude Oil Production to 2025: Updated Projection of Crude Types, which updates and extends a May 2014 EIA report. It provides a projection of domestic crude oil production by crude type through 2025, supplementing the overall production projection provided in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015). Projections of production by crude type matter for several reasons. First, U.S. crude streams vary widely in quality. Second, the economics surrounding various options for the domestic use of additional domestic oil production are directly dependent on crude quality characteristics. Third, actual or potential export values also vary significantly with quality characteristics.

Although the rate of growth in light sweet crude slows from its pace between 2011 and 2014, in the Reference case, 56% of EIA’s projected production growth between 2014 and 2020 consists of sweet grades with an API gravity of 40 or above (Figure 1). Another 33% of the growth is attributable to an increase in Lower 48 offshore production, which is categorized as medium sour with an API gravity between 27 and 35. Total U.S. oil production is projected to increase 23% between 2014 and 2020. After 2020, tight oil production declines, as drilling moves into less-productive areas.

Source: EIA

Source: EIA

The pace and duration of projected crude oil production increases are uncertain, and depend on crude oil prices and the quality and amount of technically recoverable resources. In the AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource and High Oil Price cases, the rate of growth in tight oil production is higher than in the Reference case. In 2025, projected domestic crude oil production is 2.7 million b/d higher in the High Oil Price case than in the Reference case and 3.9 million b/d higher in the High Oil and Gas Resource case than in the Reference case. U.S. total crude oil production is lowest in the Low Oil Price case. In 2025, projected domestic crude oil production is nearly 800,000 b/d lower in the Low Oil Price case than in the Reference case.

In the past several years, more than half of the additional production of U.S. crude oil has been absorbed by reducing oil imports of similar grades. Of the total 1.8 million b/d decline in crude oil imports between 2011 and 2014, roughly 56% was light crude (API 35+). Light crude imports fell from 1.7 million b/d in 2011 to 0.7 million b/d in 2014, and medium crude imports decreased from 3.3 million b/d to 2.5 million b/d. Imports of heavy crudes have remained near 4.0 million b/d since 2010.

Other responses to the increased production of light oil over the past several years have included additional crude exports to Canada and increased refinery runs based on the recent cost advantage of U.S. refiners compared with global competitors. For example:

  • U.S. exports of crude oil to Canada increased from 46,000 b/d in 2011 to 324,000 b/d in 2014, and reached 491,000 b/d in January 2015.
  • U.S. refinery utilization increased from 86.2% in 2011 to 90.4% in 2014 and was 88.4% in January 2015. From 2011 to 2014, refinery runs increased by 0.9 million b/d.

The dwindling amount of light crude imports available to be backed out through further like-for-like substitution, and the limits to increased utilization of existing refinery capacity, could cause absorption of additional increases in domestic production to rely heavily on some combination of the following:

  • Continued shifts in the refinery input mix, which can be enabled by investments to relieve constraints associated with running lighter crudes at refineries that were optimized to run heavier ones
  • Added splitter or hydroskimmer capacity to convert light crude into a mix of heavier fractions to feed domestic refineries and increase the production of light products available to other markets
  • Continued increases in crude oil exports, which will depend in part on the extent of any relaxation of current export restrictions

All of these options have implications for the value of existing refineries and specific refinery units, the mix of products produced by the refining sector, and the market value of each type of crude input and refinery product output. A change in crude production levels, which could be a further market adjustment mechanism, would come into play in the event that the market value of a particular stream reaches a level where production is not economic. Updated estimates of regional production by crude type will be valuable as new plays start commercial development, potentially changing the distribution of production by crude types in the regions where those plays are located.

U.S. average retail gasoline price increases, average diesel fuel price decreases, regional prices mixed

The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline increased one cent from last week to $2.78 per gallon as of June 1, 2015, 91 cents lower than at the same time last year. The West Coast price decreased four cents to $3.44 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price was down less than a penny to $2.48 per gallon. The Midwest price rose four cents to $2.69 per gallon. The East Coast and Rocky Mountain prices both increased one cent, to $2.67 per gallon and $2.74 per gallon, respectively.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price decreased one-half cent from the prior week to remain at $2.91 per gallon, $1.01 per gallon less than a year ago. The Rocky Mountain price rose one cent to $2.84 per gallon, while the Midwest price rose less than a cent to remain at $2.80 per gallon. The East Coast and West Coast prices each decreased one cent, to $3.00 per gallon and $3.16 per gallon, respectively. The Gulf Coast price was down less than a penny to remain at $2.80 per gallon.

Propane inventories gain

U.S. propane stocks increased by 3.8 million barrels last week to 77.0 million barrels as of May 29, 2015, 31.3 million barrels (68.3%) higher than a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels and Midwest inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels. East Coast inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories remained unchanged. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 6.8% of total propane inventories.

The post EIA Projects 56% Of Crude Oil Production Growth Between 2014 And 2020 Will Consist Of Light Sweet Grades – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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