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Strategic Context Of Ashton Carter’s India Visit – Analysis

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By C. Uday Bhaskar*

The visit of US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter to India (June 4) has resulted in a modest $2 million agreement that includes relatively low-end equipment such as protective clothing and battlefield generators. Concurrently, Dr. Carter and his Indian counterpart Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar extended the bilateral defence cooperation agreement mooted in June 2005 by another decade.

However, more than the fiscal value of the deals that have been inked – the strategic context in which the Carter visit has taken place and the issues that have been identified for further deliberation and potential bilateral cooperation, are of much greater long-term import.

Dr. Carter came to India after attending the Shangri-la dialogue in Singapore where China and the South China Sea imbroglio was the main issue under contested scrutiny between Washington and Beijing. Tangled territoriality and divergent interpretations of the existing legal provisions by the claimants – namely China and some of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) states – has resulted in a tense impasse, and the more muscular Chinese response has caused predictable anxiety among the smaller regional states.

Thus the Carter visit has been mis-perceived in some quarters as an attempt by the US to knit an anti-China coalition and that India would play a central part in this endeavor. This is misleading and such a binary policy approach either by the US or India in relation to China is invalid.

If the current macro-economic trajectory of the global order is to be sustained – these three nations (and the EU) have no option but to be yoked together, however uneasily. Yes, all three nations have deep concerns about the ‘other’ – the US and India in relation to China and conversely – Beijing is wary of a close India-US defence partnership.

Neither is the democratic duo devoid of dissonances. India and the US have not engaged in an appropriately candid manner about the emerging strategic framework in Asia – and the engagement has been more tactical in relation to Pakistan and terrorism, and on occasion – Iran. China is the big dragon-cum-panda in the Asian drawing room (depending on whether it is seen as a military menace or an economic enabler) and both the US and India have to arrive at an appropriate framework in which to concurrently engage and restrain China.

The India-US relationship is itself undergoing a transmutation – from the nuclear estrangement of the pre-2008 period to one of wary engagement. The analogy is that of two self-righteous porcupines getting to know each other – very carefully – one quill at a time!

The Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) under the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) dispensation had its own reticence about engaging with the US and this has permeated the tentacles of the defence/military bureaucracy. Consequently, institutional mistrust and a deeply ingrained reluctance to candidly engage with their counterparts prevails in both the DoD-Pentagon and the Indian MoD- military HQ.

These are the deeper issues that the Carter visit has tangentially identified for further deliberation and hopefully this in turn will allow for a more objective assessment about what constitutes ‘sufficiency’ by way of tangible trans-border military capability that India needs to acquire over the next decade.

Whether India needs more fighter aircraft, artillery guns, mountain strike corps; or aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines – or none at all – and can invest in cyber and space assets to acquire that level of ‘sufficiency’ to underpin its strategic autonomy is an exercise that Delhi has to embark upon.

The US can be a valuable partner in this effort and Carter brings immense experience to the table by way of having extensively dealt with the octopus like bureaucracies and their deeply entrenched certitudes in both nations.

What constitutes the appropriate index of military sufficiency to ensure that the Asian strategic framework is not imbalanced and exudes the kind of Goldilocks equipoise that accommodates the legitimate interests of the US, China and India is the long-term challenge for all three nations.

The Carter tour through Asia and the brief Indian visit is the tip of this early 21st century strategic iceberg. The challenge for Indian Defence Minister Parrikar is to inject the political traction and institutional determination to identify these opaque and contradictory contours and evolve a sustainable response – an objective that has eluded South Block for over a decade.

*C Uday Bhaskar is Director, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. He can be contacted at cudaybhaskar@spsindia.in

The post Strategic Context Of Ashton Carter’s India Visit – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Is Zahran Alloush In Amman? – Analysis

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By Aron Lund* for Syria Comment

According to rumors doing the rounds now, the Islam Army leader Mohammed Zahran Alloush has traveled to Amman to meet with foreign intelligence services and coordinate a purge of Islamic State and al-Qaeda elements in Syria.

Zahran Alloush is the most powerful rebel leader in the Damascus region. A Sunni Islamist of the salafi tendency, he is the son of a Saudi-based Syrian theologian named Abdullah Alloush. He ran into trouble with the authorities long before the uprising and was held in Seidnaia Prison until June 2011, when he was freed in an amnesty.

Upon his release, he immediately began to construct the armed faction now known as the Islam Army, which eventually grew into the most powerful militia in his hometown Douma. He now controls the Unified Command in the Eastern Ghouta, an area of satellite towns, suburbs, and farming communities on the outskirts of Damascus, which includes Douma. The Eastern Ghouta region has been under government siege for much of the uprising, turning it into an enclave; inside that enclave, Zahran Alloush is by far the most powerful leader. He is a controversial figure, however, and has been accused of silencing dissent by force.

The Unified Command and its member factions are mostly Sunni Islamists of some variety, but with considerable personal and even ideological differences between factions. Together, they have fought hard to root out the Islamic State from the Damascus region, but they have so far cooperated with al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front (which is not part of the Unified Command). The idea of starting a war with the Nusra Front would be controversial among other rebels. Many are wary of Nusra’s extremism and international agenda, but they see no urgent need for diverting resources to fighting the group, which is held in high esteem for its ability to inflict damage on Bashar al-Assad and the Islamic State alike. Being a very useful ally, it would also be a very dangerous enemy. Indeed, some rebels would probably feel inclined to support the Nusra Front rather than Alloush—which is precisely why the topic is so sensitive.

Zahran Alloush Goes to Turkey

In a surprise move, Zahran Alloush recently left his stronghold in the Douma to go to Turkey, where he has been meeting with foreign governments and other rebel leaders. According to recent reports, Abu Mohammed al-Fateh, who is the leader of another Ghouta-based Islamist group, the Ajnad al-Sham Islamic Union, has taken over after Zahran Alloush as head of the Ghouta Unified Command. I have asked two representatives of the Islam Army about this. One says it’s false and has been denied by all involved. The other says it is true but only a temporary arrangement, while Zahran is out of the country.

Whether or not he traveled on to Amman this week, Zahran Alloush’s trip abroad seems to be related to the recent Turkish-Saudi push to empower the Syrian rebels and reorganize the insurgency. A lot of things are happening at the moment, with the quietly Saudi-approved Cairo II conference for moderate opposition members slated to start in Cairo on Tuesday and another conference scheduled for after Ramadan in Riyadh. Meanwhile, President Khaled Khoja of the National Coalition—the Syrian opposition’s internationally recognized exile leadership—has ordered the dissolution of the Free Syrian Army’s Supreme Military Council, a more or less defunct exile body set up in 2012 to coordinate support to the rebellion. Something new will surely take its place. Recent reports suggest a reorganization into a two-pronged structure: the Northern Front and the Southern Front. While the insurgency in the north is a mess, albeit a successful mess, a Southern Front structure already exists, though less as an independent entity than as a label for the groups that are jointly backed and coordinated by Western and Gulf states operating out of Amman.

As these pieces start to fall into place, many suspect that Zahran is being groomed for a bigger role in the new rebel leadership structure—or at the very least, that he is independently angling for one. He may not be the most popular rebel leader in Syria, but he is surely the person most likely to grab the presidential palace if the Assad regime starts to crumble. In a recent interview with the McClatchy news agency, he tried to back away from his previous hateful rhetoric against Shia and Alawite minorities in Syria. It is hard to shake the feeling that this was aimed at making him more acceptable to Syrian and international opinion.

Now, a note of caution: there is no confirmation of these news yet. Instead, the most detailed version of the rumors about Zahran’s meetings in Amman comes from @mujtahidd, an anonymous account on Twitter that is dedicated to critical commentary on Saudi politics. Whoever or whatever is really behind the @mujtahidd account, it has an enormous following in Saudi Arabia and the Arab world, but there is no way of confirming these reports—so make of them what you will.

What follows is my quick translation of @mujtahidd’s tweets, which are available in the original Arabic here.

MUJTAHIDD’S TWEETS ON ZAHRAN ALLOUSH’S VISIT TO AMMAN, JUNE 6:

Zahran Alloush spent last week meeting with Saudi, American, and Jordanian intelligence in Amman hotels, in order to coordinate the situation against the Islamic State and the Nusra Front, and for other tasks.

The meeting with the Americans took place a week ago. He met with the Saudis two times: last Friday between 14.30 until 16.00 and on Sunday at 20.00 in the Hayat hotel in Amman.

Saudi intelligence was represented by Abu Badr, who is close to Mohammed bin Nayef. In the first meeting, Zahran Alloush was accompanied by Mohammed Alloush and Abu Ali al-Ajwa. In the second meeting, he was alone.

The goal was to coordinate the war against the Islamic State and the Nusra Front. Alloush said that the war against the Nusra Front will be more difficult to justify than the war on the Islamic State, and that they will have to help him with that.

Alloush was asked to coordinate with the Southern Front, which consists of the remains of what’s left of Jamal Maarouf’s troops and the rest of the mercenaries. A meeting was set up between Alloush and Abu Osama al-Golani, who is one of the leaders of this front.

Alloush started coordinating with the Southern Front to fight the Islamic State and the Nusra Front in Deraa and Quneitra. With the Saudis, he discussed replacing the Islam Army flag by the revolutionary flag.

The meetings were arranged by members of the Jordanian intelligence services. No fewer than ten were seen there and several of them attended the meetings.

Despite insisting on the destruction of the the Islamic State and the Nusra Front in all of Syria, the main focus was on keeping the Damascus front in his hands so that he will be able to reap the fruits even if the regime is toppled by someone else.

An interesting point is that the person known as Abu Badr asked in detail about the Muslim Brotherhood’s strength on the various fronts. It was not clear if the question was in order to push them out or to make use of them.

An observation: the meetings took place in the Hayat hotel, but Alloush is living at the Crowne Plaza. Of course, they’re all in Amman. We ask God to expose all the hypocrites.

*Aron Lund is the editor of Syria in Crisis, a website published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The post Is Zahran Alloush In Amman? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

India-China Border Row: Why No Breakthrough? – Analysis

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By Amit Ranjan*

In May 2015, even before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi set his foot in China, the ‘expectations’ bar from the visit was inordinately raised by analysts from different backgrounds. One of the most important issues which has been consistently discussed was: What steps the two leaders are going to take to settle the decades-old row over border demarcation? Though this issue dominates whenever the leaders from the two countries meet, this time it gained additional attention because India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj during her ‘preparatory’ visit to China in February 2015 talked about the need for an “out-of-the-box” solution to resolve the long-pending territorial dispute between India and China.

The genesis of the India-China border dispute lies in the Simla Accord of 1914 between the plenipotentiaries of British India and Tibet. Though the representative of Yuan Shi Kai-led Chinese government was part of the discussion, he did not sign the accord. The problem in this accord occurred in 1930s when Tibet showed reluctance to accept the McMahon Line as a border and give up Tawang to British India. It wanted the British government to force the Chinese to accept the Tibet-China clause outlined in the Simla Accord. This did not happen. Instead, Chinese raised a question over the authority of the Tibetans to sign that accord.

Primarily, the border map was sketched out to secure the colonial interests of British India in south and central Asia. In 1954, sovereign India recognised and accepted the McMahon line as a border between India and China. This is being contested by China, which desires for a border demarcation along the lines of pre-1914 accord. The 1962 war was the result of those differences, though many other factors too were responsible for it. Fortunately or unfortunately, the war could not settle the border row. After the war, India and China paused their diplomatic relationship, which was re-established in 1979.

A real breakthrough over the border issue was made during the visit of then Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi to China in 1988. During that visit, in a meeting Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping had expressed his intention to leave the settlement of the territorial dispute to a “future generation”. Working in that spirit to address their border disputes the two countries agreed to establish a Joint Working Group (JWG) in 1988. As a follow on, in 1993 they set up an expert group comprising diplomats, military officials, cartographers etc for the purpose of making a closer scrutiny of each side’s position and clarifications on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Later on, to help the JWG, Special Representatives (SR) were appointed in 2003 after the then Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited China and stressed the importance of including political viewpoints in the solving of border disputes.

Since 1988, more than a quarter century has passed but the dispute has not been satisfactorily resolved or managed. Although in 2005 certain guiding principles were accepted to manage incidents at the border, intrusions and skirmishes do take place. Later, in 2013 India and China signed a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement to ensure that border patrolling could not trigger exchange of fire between the border guards of two sides. A major balancer in managing India-China ties is their economic rise, especially since 1991 when India too adopted the liberal economic order. By saying this, the author does not substantiate the Kantian logic and theory that mutual economic interests strengthen political relationships too, though they manage disputes from crossing beyond an accepted level.

At present, the two main areas of dispute along the Himalayan frontier are the Western Sector (Aksai Chin, around 37,250 sq km/14,380 sq miles); and Eastern Sector (Arunachal Pradesh, around 83,740 sq km/ 32,330 sq mile). India reportedly has been insisting on a ‘LAC plus’ solution; the “plus” was a limited concession, possibly in the Western sector. On the issue of persisting border disputes between India and China, Taylor Fravel, of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, maintains: “Beijing has often been very flexible about principles in reaching territorial settlements with other states. The decisive factor is the judgment of China’s leaders about what best serves their national interests – flexibility or inflexibility on principle. In relation to India, rather than being flexible Beijing has chosen to stand on inflexible principle, making a solution of the territorial conflict less likely”. This quote can be supported by a fact that after disintegration of the Soviet Union when Central Asian Republics emerged, the first step China took was to settle its border disputes with them. In a few cases, it even made compromising adjustments on its pre-1990 territorial demands.

After the Indian prime minister’s visit to China, delivering the annual K.F. Rustamji lecture, India’s National Security Adviser Ajit K. Doval made a statement that India needs a ‘larger plan’ for ‘tackling’ China to resolve all ticklish matters. He also said “McMahon line was agreed by China till Burma, the same was not accepted thereafter”. Reacting to it, the Chinese foreign spokesperson Hua Chunying said that McMahon line is ‘illegal’, and “it is not easy to resolve the China-India boundary question, as it is an issue left over from history”. The two opposite statements shows the complexity of the border issue where one recognises the line, the other does not.

Any step to settle the border demarcation demands compromise, adjustments and political determination. This is possible only when there is a consensus to do so among the political leadership, institutions and dominant political constituencies. It is a difficult exercise because of bitter memories of the past and existing socio-political narratives about each other in respective countries. A move to address the bitterness requires a re-negotiation with history and review of the past to sketch out a draft for the future. Unless it happens there is a bleak possibility of settling the India-China border issue through a series of incremental measures.

*Amit Ranjan, is a Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs. He can be reached at contributions@spsinida.in

The post India-China Border Row: Why No Breakthrough? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Old And New Islam In Albania: Reflections On An Ongoing Encounter – OpEd

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By Alba Çela*

As a little girl brought up by my maternal grandparents, I was very close to their Muslim religion. We would fast together during the holy nights (and later, when I was older, the whole month) of Ramadan and attend the mosque sermons on the Bayram (Eid) celebrations in the early morning. It was a pleasure for me to read the Koran to my grandmother as she was sewing her pillow-cases and to find so much peace and inspiration lying within its verses.

Fast forward two decades later and my grandparents no longer go to their traditional mosque, claiming that ‘bearded men’ have taken it over. The bearded men they refer to are young, fierce-talking, religious men who have graduated from schools of theology in the Middle East or even as far away as Indonesia or Malaysia. They have brought back a version of Islam which is hostile and unknown to people like my grandparents although they have been Muslim all of their lives. Yet according to these youngsters, people like my grandparents have had it wrong this whole time. In their eyes, this is especially true of someone like my grandfather who married one of his daughters, my mum, to a Bektashi man (a Sufi sect with large followings in Albania) and the two others, my aunts, to Orthodox Christian grooms. The heresy!

What these men would see as ‘heresy’ is what most of us in Albania actually love and praise as religious harmony or coexistence. It is the result of the Ottoman legacy which left behind a version of religion combined with the millet system (arguably the first minority regulation system in the world), forming a fusion that values tolerance, acceptance and a live and let live approach to daily life.

Some also argue that Albanians have never been religious as religion is of secondary importance to their attitude toward life. Indeed, the rates of those that practice religion in Albania is quite low. In a survey of young Albanians that will be released this September, 61 percent of the respondents said that they practice religion only during the main religious holidays (therefore only a few days per year). Another 23 percent say they never practice religion.[1] In another study of the Albanian Institute for International Studies published in 2010, 38 percent of those surveyed said the same, namely that they practice religion only on holidays. This was followed by another 30 percent who say they never practice religion.[2]

Nonetheless, this apparent lack of prominence of religion in the everyday lives of the Albanian majority cannot explain the harmony by itself. This behavior is also buttressed by the strong linguistic bond attached to the Albanian language and its use as a recurring theme during the Nationalist period in the country. Often unmentioned, the feel-good philosophy attached to this linguistic bond also plays a significant role in Albania’s relationship with religion. The joy of celebrating many times per year, instead of just once or twice, the joy of being part of many traditions and the solace found in many convictions are just some of the reasons for this way of life. About 50 percent of the Albanian youth confess to visiting a sacred place that belongs to a faith different from their own at least once per year. This is a usual practice in many places in the Balkans, where one can find many people visiting and paying their respects to those laid to rest at all kinds of graves, turbes, tekkes and rocks in addition to visiting mosques and churches regardless of their Muslim, Christian, or even agnostic or ‘part time’ non-believer convictions.

However nothing can be taken for granted and a battle to win the interpretation of Islam is being waged every day in Albania, mostly quietly in mosques and coffeehouses, on radio shows and in the social media. Yet just as quietly, at least until the first fighters started to travel to Syria, the extremists seem to be gaining ground. They are younger, better financed, zealously organized and easily drive away the ‘old’ believers who find it exhausting, or sometimes outright dangerous, to deal with them.

As they drive away the traditionalists and erode the authority of the official Muslim Community in Albania, they find more and more spaces where they can preach and be listened to. Their messages have almost nothing in common with the peace, fairness and kindness that the rest of us have known Islam to be for many years; they are disturbed by the other faiths in Albania and propagate absurd incoherent versions of jihad that they don’t even seem to fully comprehend themselves.

As a globe-trotting student later in life, I read many books about religion, and attended many classes and seminars and wrote many papers on the topic. But still the most important life-shaping lesson that I carry with me along with my faith in God is the heritage that my grandparents bestowed upon me, namely that Islam and God edify tolerance, respect, love and the necessity to never impose a will via violence and coercion. I am deeply distraught that this is lost on the bearded men who now preach to the Albanian youth, convincing them to travel to Syria.

It is only recently that a more organized response is being coordinated in Albania, even with help from abroad. While the legal and police mechanisms are being strengthened to catch up with the rise of extremism in the country, more needs to be done to promote understanding (by way of research and analysis) and to address the socioeconomic reasons that feed into the process of recruitment. Ultimately, I believe that the moderate, tolerant, traditional religion has strong roots in Albania and that it has the potential to prevail. However, for this victory to become a reality, the engagement of a wide segment of societal actors is needed in addition to the mobilization of state security services.

[1] ‘Albanian Youth 2015’ – National poll, Chapter: Trust and belonging’, Friedrich Ebert Albania, report forthcoming in September 2015.
[2] “Albania twenty years after communism: reflections on state and democracy”, AIIS: December 2010 (p. 55).
*Alba Çela is the Deputy Director of the Albanian Institute of International Studies (AIIS), a think tank based in Tirana.

**This op-ed was first published in Analist Monthly Journal’s June issue in Turkish Language.

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Saudi Arabia And Malaysia Promise Support For Rohingyas

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Saudi Arabia’s Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman held talks in Riyadh on Sunday with visiting Malaysian Prime Minister Mohammed Najib Razak on major international and Islamic issues and explored prospects of expanding cooperation between the two key OIC countries.

The two leaders also discussed “the racial discrimination and ethnic cleansing” against the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar and stressed the need to stop these human rights violations on the basis of the resolutions taken by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the US.

“The meeting also reviewed the Kingdom’s efforts in providing humanitarian assistance to the Rohingya Muslims,” said an official statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency.

The premier conveyed his condolences to the king on the death of Princess Jawahir bint Abdul Aziz.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif, deputy premier and minister of interior, and other senior officials, including Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf, Culture and Information Minister Adel Al-Toraifi, and Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir, attended the talks on the Saudi side.

On the Malaysian side, the participants were: Anifah Aman, Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein and Interior Minister Ahmad Hamidi.

Crown Prince Mohammed held separate talks with the Malaysian premier on ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation in different fields.

They also reviewed the latest developments in the region and around the world.

Razak arrived in Jeddah on Saturday and was received at the airport by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif, who later hosted a dinner in honor of the prime minister.

A large number of princes and officials attended the banquet.

Meanwhile, King Salman received a message from Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, which was handed to the king by Kuwaiti Ambassador Sheikh Thamir bin Jabir Al-Sabah.

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Modi: Foreign Policy With A Difference – Analysis

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By Dr. Sridhar Krishnaswami*

There has been a lot of praise and heartburn over the fashion in which Narendra Modi has charted India’s foreign policy in the last one year in office. It is natural for supporters and detractors to look at New Delhi’s track record but to argue there are serious lapses in which the current prime minister has gone about in India’s external relation could be a little disingenuous — a country’s foreign policy cannot be abruptly shifted or turned around in one year. Just ask President Barack Obama what he said on American foreign policy during his presidential campaigning in 2007-08 and what has come about some eight years down the line!

It is not as if Indian foreign policy was in tatters when Modi came to office. What happened to Indian foreign policy some ten years before Modi was elected was indeed a different ball game — a then prime minister unable to steer a steady course as he was consistently bogged down by coalition partners. Even within the realm of South Asia, Manmohan Singh could not chart a definitive and assertive foreign policy because of political compulsions, be it with respect to Bangladesh, Nepal or Sri Lanka. Today the ballpark essentially remains the same, but the ballgame has changed. And all of this has to do with the fact that the prime minister sitting in his office in New Delhi is not pinned down by the peculiarities of coalition politics or in any desperate attempt to hang on to power.

The ‘Look East’ policy is not the exclusive preserve of the Modi government. It actually started during the time of then prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao. But where Modi is different is in his style of approaching the East — an intention to be more decisive in spelling out exactly what New Delhi wants to do and what it expects from others. In fact within a span of one year, both Japan and China have come to understand as to where India is coming from. Even during the previous United Progressive Alliance (UPA) regime India had moved away from a regional to a global player; but the fine tunings of a global player is now being put in place.

To say that India under Modi is veering into an “alliance” that includes the United States, Japan and Australia is as wrong as it is naïve. What India has done is to project its legitimate interests in the Asia Pacific, even if it is going to irk a country like China that sees New Delhi needling it in the South China Seas. It is not just a question of navigational rights but one of securing security and strategic interests. The impending visit of Modi to Vietnam will further make Beijing uneasy.

Crying hoarse about Modi visiting 18 countries in one year is something hard to fathom for the simple reason that the Indian prime minister was not “running away” unable to stand the political heat in New Delhi. From South Asia to East Asia, the Asia Pacific and the West, the one message has come out loud and clear: that India is keen to do any business and is finally ready to do so. The invitation to “Make in India” comes with a clear message as well —the transparency of doing business with India and in India. Indian economic growth is not totally dependent on foreign direct investment but political stability, and economic/business transparency goes the distance in putting India back on the global economic map.

The Modi foreign policy has had some glitches as well especially as it pertains to China and Pakistan. The recent visit of the prime minister to China has been predominantly on atmospherics with all the accompanying hoopla on the cultural, business and e-visas. How Beijing measures up to Indian political and strategic expectations remains to be seen, something that was not talked about in the media either during the visit or after.

In all that bonhomie that took place for the days Modi was in China, his hosts — through official media mouthpieces — were under the impression that India was seeking to involve “third parties” in the settlement of differences with China! And there was no word if the prime minister and his delegation sought to impress upon their hosts on Beijing cozying up to Islamabad as a way of getting even with India or the United States. It is not as if China is unaware of Pakistan’s terrorism credentials but in the extent to which the latter could harm Chinese interests within its borders as well is something that should be highlighted.

Pakistan has been a totally different act altogether for Modi in the last one year and this will be the biggest challenge. To expect Pakistan to handover Dawood Ibrahim or any of the other terrorist thugs enjoying lives in that country is pretty illusory. The question then is what New Delhi’s game plan is in dealing with Islamabad’s brazenly promoting and instigating terror against and in India.

If there is one striking feature in all of Modi’s overseas visits, it was in this refreshing feeling that India was not directly or even indirectly soliciting the West, the East or those in the Asia Pacific for a Permanent Seat in the United Nations Security Council. By paying homage to the thousands of Indian soldiers who had died in the Two World Wars, Modi indirectly reminded one and all that India was a global player before its Independence or even before the Security Council became an entity.

*Dr. Sridhar Krishnaswami is Professor of Journalism and Mass Communication and International Relations at SRM University, Chennai. He can be reached at sridhar54k@gmail.com

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North Korea: Private Commerce Brings Arbitrary Arrests, Abuse, Says HRW

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North Korean authorities arbitrarily arrest, unfairly prosecute, and severely mistreat people for conducting private business activity, with punishments varying with bribes and connections, Human Rights Watch said today. The government should amend its criminal code to abolish “economic crimes” of engaging in commerce and order the authorities to stop arresting people for such activity.

Human Rights Watch interviewed 12 North Koreans extensively involved in private commerce who had fled to South Korea since 2013. They said that when authorities confronted them about engaging in business activities, their fate often depended on their capacity to pay bribes or mobilize personal connections, or the government’s need for forced labor. Those accused without money or connections could face lengthy sentences at prison camps, especially when the need for forced labor was high.

“While many North Koreans engage in petty business to survive, government officials prey on them with arbitrary arrests, extortion, and detention,” said John Sifton, Asia advocacy director. “Those who can’t bribe their way out of prison camp can face months or years of forced labor, deprivation, and abuse.”

Economic Crimes
After the collapse of North Korea’s public distribution system for food between 1993 and 1995, a severe famine provoked massive starvation and compelled North Koreans to engage in private commercial activities, known as jangsa, or dealings with the marketplace, for the first time. The growth of these activities has created an unofficial, parallel gray economy with a highly uncertain and risky political and regulatory environment. Authorities treat the same economic crime differently depending on the person or groups facing charges.

Among the economic crimes for which people face punishment are attempts to engage in market economic activities without government permission and the trading of forbidden goods, such as mushrooms, spices, medicinal herbs, or seafood. Enforcement of laws prohibiting these activities takes place alongside the enforcement of other criminal laws against violating the terms of government-issued travel permits, not having a state-sanctioned job, having contacts in China, and crossing over or smuggling goods to or from China. Failing to report to a government-assigned workplace is also punishable by law. All men and unmarried women who have finished their studies are required to report to their assigned state-approved company, but may be able to pay the company a fee if they do not go to work.

A former manager at a state-owned company who left North Korea in January 2014 told Human Rights Watch that his wife bought clothes in bulk from cities with more active market activity such as Rason, a port city in the northeastern tip of the country. She sold these clothes at the market in Chongjin, in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong. Because of his connections, they were doing well and may have avoided being arrested for their economic activities. He regularly visited his bosses at the company where he was formally listed as being employed as well as members of the State Security Department (bowibu) and the Ministry of Public Security (the police), providing them with gifts including money, meat, squid, and liquor.

“To be protected, you have to remember special holidays and react to the moment, to the new directives, or to crackdowns where they confiscate your products,” he said. “Otherwise you can lose everything you have, or end up in prison or forced to do hard labor.”

Fear of being caught makes traders prepare for extortion attempts by carrying extra money and packs of cigarettes to pay off authorities if necessary. “We are always scared and never know what may happen to us,” a trader told Human Rights Watch. She explained that she engaged in bulk trading from one province to another and left North Korea during the winter of 2014. “Once a friend of mine did not hear a member of a patrol team calling her,” she said. “So then he beat her up and, because she had no money to pay him, he sent her to a labor training center.”

North Korea’s restrictions on economic activities that infringe on basic economic and social rights violate the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), which North Korea ratified in 1981. Under the ICESCR, individuals have the right to work, “which includes the right of everyone to the opportunity to gain his living by work which he freely chooses or accepts.” Governments are obligated to “take appropriate steps to safeguard this right.” The government must also “achiev[e] progressively” the right to “an adequate standard of living for himself and his family, including adequate food, clothing and housing, and to the continuous improvement of living conditions.”

The actions taken by North Korean authorities against perceived perpetrators of economic crimes violate international legal protections under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. These include the rights to freedom from arbitrary arrest and detention, freedom of movement, freedom from torture and other ill-treatment, and a fair trial.

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David And Goliath In The Amazon – OpEd

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By Brittney Figueroa*

In his humble wooden home in the Ecuadorian Amazon, a man responds to questions of how oil spills near his home have affected him and his family. “I’ve had three children die… My little girls died. They would run around outside and be covered in crude. And then later they started dying.” When he asked for help from Texaco, the oil giant responsible for the contamination, they told him that they would send help to his daughters and take responsibility for their actions. But, he added, “So far, they still haven’t shown up, and it’s been more than twenty years.”[i]

This terrible story is just one of three shown in several tapes submitted to Amazon Watch, an environmental human rights non-governmental organization, by a Chevron whistleblower. For nearly a quarter of a century, the former oil company, Texaco (acquired by Chevron in 2001) has been under fire for having contaminated the Ecuadorian Amazon with millions of gallons of oil and toxic wastewater that has made its way into groundwater, rivers, and streams. The results of the pollutants have been catastrophic to the environment as well as to the health of the people living in the indigenous communities.

In 1993, a group of lawyers advocating on behalf of indigenous people in Eastern Ecuador, filed a lawsuit against Texaco over the toxins that the company had released into the Amazon. The attempt to bring Texaco to justice for what many believe to be one of the gravest environmental human rights abuses of the late 20th and early 21st centuries has proven to be anything but easy. It has been a long process that has evolved over the course of twenty-two years to include numerous lawsuits and appeals involving four different countries and millions of people, with an end nowhere in sight.

It is an uneven battle between Chevron and the indigenous inhabitants of the Ecuadorian Amazon. The oil giant’s more than $200 billion USD net worth provides the resources to continue in litigation until, as one Chevron spokesman has said, “…Hell freezes over—and then…fight it out on the ice.” [ii] Despite the immense disproportionality in monetary resources, the people of Ecuador have overwhelming and powerful global support, perhaps giving the global audience a preview of how this David and Goliath-esque battle may end.

The Cases:

In 1993 and 1994, two separate grievances were filed against Texaco in US federal court. Both were class action lawsuits alleging that between 1964 and 1992 Texaco’s oil operations polluted the Amazon rainforests and rivers of Ecuador and Peru, the two regions where the plaintiffs of the cases were located.[iii] However, in 2002 the US courts dismissed both lawsuits on the grounds that the South American courts would be a more appropriate venue for the litigation of the claims.[iv] Texaco agreed to jurisdiction in Ecuador and/or Peru, most likely under the assumption that it would be able to get away with its crimes in the South American countries.

In 2003, a second class action lawsuit was brought against Texaco (now Chevron) further stressing environmental contamination as a link to cancer in the inhabitants of the Amazon. Initial inspections of the claims began in 2004 and the estimate of damages Chevron was being asked to pay went from $7-16 billion USD in early 2008 to $27 billion USD by November of that year. [v] Defiant, a Chevron lobbyist in Washington told Newsweek, “We can’t let these little countries screw around with big companies like this.”[vi] So in September 2009, Chevron filed an international arbitration claim—for the second time—before the Permanent Court of Arbitration, alleging that Ecuador’s government violated a US-Ecuador bilateral investment treaty.[vii] Although seemingly unconnected to the cases, the investment treaty had the potential to be Chevron’s greatest weapon, as it would allow the company to convene a panel of lawyers with the power to override Ecuador’s judicial system and constitution in order to throw out the judgment awarded in the original case.”[viii] When the arbitration panel ruled in favor of the oil giant, Ecuador filed a lawsuit in US federal court that barred Chevron from proceeding with arbitration under the investment treaty. In March 2012, an Ecuadorian court ruled that Chevron could not use an order from the international arbitration tribunal, and in an effort to enforce this, the Ecuadorian plaintiffs filed lawsuits in Canada and Brazil going after Chevron’s assets in those countries; the “little country” seemed to be succeeding in screwing with the big company.[ix]

USDs and USBs:

Out of the already extensive lawsuits filed in this case, the one garnering the most attention lately has been the February 14, 2011 ruling by Ecuadorian judge Nicholas Zambrano in which Chevron was ordered to pay $9.5 billion USD in clean up costs. Although Chevron had expressed in the past through numerous affidavits that Ecuador’s court system was fair and that it would allow the country’s courts to handle the litigation of claims against it, the oil company is now going back on what it had previously promised.[x] Chevron, after having lost in Ecuador, brought the case to the US, where it sued Steven Donzinger, the plaintiff’s lead attorney, and his legal team, accusing them and their indigenous clients of bribing an Ecuadorian judge. In an attempt to defend this claim, the corporation invoked the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act —a statute designed to prosecute organized crime.[xi] Despite these harsh claims against the Ecuadorian court, Chevron admitted paying at least $326,000 USD (with estimates of up to $2 million USD) for the cooperation of one of its key witnesses, former Ecuadorean judge, Alberto Guerra.[xii]

Chevron has also made the claim that the $9.5 billion USD rule against it was “ghostwritten,” an allegation that a litigation document was obtained by Zambrano via USB drives, rather than having been thoughtfully and meticulously written out. However, this allegation has been proven false in the recent weeks. A leading computer forensics expert, J. Christopher Racich, found that the 188-page Ecuador judgment was written over a four-month period, ultimately leading up to the ruling.[xiii] This discovery directly contradicts Chevron’s testimony that one of the Ecuadorians’ lawyers gave the judgment to Judge Nicolas Zambrano in late January 2011, just days before the judgment was issued.[xiv] Chevron’s failure to produce the serial numbers of the USBs in question has added to the already strong sentiment that the corporation has been falsifying evidence, and has fueled the desire of Ecuadorian villagers to use Racich’s forensic report as an aid in their other lawsuits against Chevron.

Global Solidarity and a Well-Deserved Global (Dis)honor:

Although undeniably vulnerable in the past, indigenous communities from all over the world are showing their might by standing in solidarity against Chevron and its corporate irresponsibility. On April 21, activists from the United States, Canada, and other indigenous territories of North America met with indigenous communities from Ecuador to protest Chevron in front of the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) in Washington, D.C.[xv]

The indigenous communities’ protest is in response to Chevron’s request that the ICSID hold a hearing to pressure Ecuador, instead of Chevron, to pay the $9.5 billion USD that Ecuadorian courts ruled should be paid to the victims of Chevron’s spills and contamination.[xvi] This request by Chevron is a further injustice toward the indigenous communities of Ecuador, who have already endured so much and it has ignited not only Western hemispheric support, but global support as well.

Amid the arduous effort of the people of Ecuador to bring Chevron to justice, global support from various non-governmental organizations and environmental human rights organizations have harnessed an interesting new method that they believe will pressure certain big corporations to turn from their chronic irresponsibility and move toward establishing responsible practices. The key? Rattling corporations’ reputations.

Perhaps the greatest example of this method is the work of prominent Swiss environmental organizations in crowning Chevron as the winner of the “Lifetime Achievement” award for dumping its toxic waste into the Amazon. The award is one of many Public Eye Awards given to corporations that have atrocious business practices ranging from human rights, labor law, and environmental rights violations. Public Eye as a whole “sheds a critical light on business practices and provides a platform to civil society organizations to publicly criticize cases of human and labor rights violations, environmental destruction, and corruption.” Specifically, the Public Eye Awards “remind global players that the social and environmental consequences of their business practices affect not only people and the environment, but also the reputation of the company.” [xvii]

At the Public Eye Awards ceremony in Davos Dorf, Switzerland, Paul Paz y Miño, of the U.S-based environmental and human rights group Amazon Watch—the organization that nominated Chevron for the prize—referred to the corporation as “a recidivist toxic polluter that deserves condemnation from the world community for its horrific acts against the vulnerable indigenous peoples of Ecuador.”[xviii] That condemnation has become stronger in the last year with Chevron’s newest dishonor as well as the growing suspicion that the corporation has falsified evidence in this seemingly never-ending litigation.

Conclusion:

The uneven battle between Chevron and the indigenous populations of the Ecuadorian Amazon has persisted for more than two decades with Chevron having been the clear winner thus far. However, the oil giant’s Goliath of monetary resources seems to be buckling under the pressure of the Ecuadorian Amazon’s David, fueled by global support and undeniable evidence.

Chevron’s irresponsible corporate practices have been made more and more clear to the global audience over the course of this long struggle for justice, and people have responded through protests spanning 5 continents and more than 16 countries stressing the need for environmental clean up and changes in corporate policy.[xix]

As Amazon Watch’s Paul Paz y Miño’s put the matter, “Chevron deliberately caused a lifetime of suffering and death by polluting the Ecuadorian Amazon to increase its already high profits to obscene levels. Chevron has also inflicted years of abusive lawsuits designed to leave affected communities defenseless and has tried to win by might what it could never win by merit.” It is past time for justice for all those harmed by Chevron’s greed and irresponsibility.

*Brittney Figueroa, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Notes:
[i] http://www.mintpressnews.com/chevron-whistleblower-leaks-tapes-showing-intentional-oil-spill-coverup/204839/

[ii] http://www.forbes.com/companies/chevron/ and http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/01/09/reversal-of-fortune-patrick-radden-keefe

[iii] http://business-humanrights.org/en/texacochevron-lawsuits-re-ecuador

[iv] Ibid.

[v] Ibid.

[vi]http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/01/09/reversal-of-fortune-patrick-radden-keefe

[vii] Ibid.

[viii] http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/4/can-ecuador-bring-chevron-to-justice.html

[ix] Ibid.

[x]http://www.csrwire.com/press_releases/37632-Chevron-s-Battered-Image-Over-Ecuador-Ecological-Disaster-Takes-Another-Hit-In-Davos

[xi] http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/4/can-ecuador-bring-chevron-to-justice.html

[xii] Ibid.

[xiii] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/karen-hinton/chevrons-ghostwriting-cha_b_7191074.html

[xiv] Ibid.

[xv] http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/North-South-American-Indigenous-Peoples-Unite-in-Chevron-Fight-20150423-0003.html

[xvi] Ibid.

[xvii] http://publiceye.ch

[xviii] Ibid.

[xix] http://www.csrwire.com/press_releases/37085-Chevron-Management-Hit-with-Protests-on-Five-Continents-over-Environmental-Abuses

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Ron Paul: Soros Pushes US Bailouts And Weapons For Ukraine – OpEd

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If you look at the track record of the interventionists you might think they would pause before taking on more projects. Each of their past projects has ended in disaster yet still they press on. Last week the website Zero Hedge posted a report about hacked emails between billionaire George Soros and Ukrainian President Poroshenko.

Soros is very close to the Ukrainian president, who was put in power after a US-backed coup deposed the elected leader of Ukraine last year. In the email correspondence, Soros tells the Ukrainian leadership that the US should provide Ukraine “with same level of sophistication in defense weapons to match the level of opposing force.” In other words, despite the February ceasefire, Soros is pushing behind the scenes to make sure Ukraine receives top-of-the-line lethal weapons from the United States. Of course it will be up to us to pay the bill because Ukraine is broke.

But Soros seems to have the money part covered as well. In an email to Ukrainian leaders, he wrote that Ukraine’s “first priority must be to regain control of financial markets.” Soros told Poroshenko that the IMF would need to come through with a $15 billion package, which was confident would lead the Fed to also come through with more money. He wrote: “the Federal Reserve could be asked to extend a $15 billion three months swap arrangement with the National Bank of Ukraine. That would reassure the markets and avoid a panic.”

How would the Fed be convinced to do that? Soros assured Poroshenko: “I am ready to call Jack Lew of the US Treasury to sound him out about the swap agreement.”

So George Soros will use his influence in the US government to put the American people on the hook for a bankrupt Ukraine — forcing us to pay for weapons, more military training, and Ukraine’s crippling debt.

Who is thrilled with Soros’ drawing the US government into more intervention in the region? The military-industrial complex for one is happy at the prospect of big weapons “sales” to Ukraine. The bankers are thrilled. Washington power-brokers are thrilled. There is something in this for everyone who is politically well-connected. The only losers are the people who will be forced to pay for it, the American taxpayers.

No one seems to ask why we are involved in Ukraine at all. Is it really any of our business if the east wants to break away from the west? Is it a vital US interest which flag the people wish to hang in Donetsk?

One thing we should be sure of is that Ukraine’s debt will not be paid. As in other bailouts, much of it will be transferred to the US taxpayer through the IMF and the Federal Reserve. All of this is only possible because of the perception that the dollar is still the world’s reserve currency. But this too is coming to an end. US military and financial interventionism worldwide are only speeding up the process.

This article was published by the Ron Paul Institute.

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Having A Stroke Ages Brain By Almost Eight Years

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Having a stroke ages a person’s brain function by almost eight years, new research finds – robbing them of memory and thinking speed as measured on cognitive tests.

In both black and white patients, having had a stroke meant that their score on a 27-item test of memory and thinking speed had dropped as much as it would have if they had aged 7.9 years overnight.

For the study, data from more than 4,900 black and white seniors over the age of 65 was analyzed by a team from the University of Michigan U-M Medical School and School of Public Health and the VA Center for Clinical Management Research. The results will be published in the July issue of Stroke.

Researchers married two sources of information for their analysis: detailed surveys and tests of memory and thinking speed over multiple years from participants in a large, national study of older Americans, and Medicare data from the same individuals.

They zeroed in on the 7.5 percent of black study participants, and the 6.7 percent of white participants, who had no recent history of stroke, dementia or other cognitive issues, but who suffered a documented stroke within 12 years of their first survey and cognitive test in 1998.

By measuring participants’ changes in cognitive test scores over time from 1998 to 2012, the researchers could see that both blacks and whites did significantly worse on the test after their stroke than they had before.

Although the size of the effect was the same among blacks and whites, past research has shown that the rates of cognitive problems in older blacks are generally twice that of non-Hispanic whites. So the new results mean that stroke doesn’t account for the mysterious differences in memory and cognition that grow along racial lines as people age.

The researchers say the findings underscore the importance of stroke prevention.

“As we search for the key drivers of the known disparities in cognitive decline between blacks and whites, we focus here on the role of ‘health shocks’ such as stroke,” said lead author and U-M Medical School assistant professor Deborah Levine, M.D., MPH. “Although we found that stroke does not explain the difference, these results show the amount of cognitive aging that stroke brings on, and therefore the importance of stroke prevention to reduce the risk of cognitive decline.”

Other research on disparities in cognitive decline has focused on racial differences in socioeconomic status, education, and vascular risk factors such as diabetes, high blood pressure and smoking that can all contribute to stroke risk. These factors may explain some but not all of the racial differences in cognitive decline.

Levine and her colleagues note that certain factors – such as how many years a person has vascular risk factors, and the quality of his or her education, as well as genetic and biological factors – might play a role in racial differences in long-term cognitive performance.

But one thing is clear: strokes have serious consequences for brain function. On average, they rob the brain of eight years of cognitive health. Therefore, people of all racial and ethnic backgrounds can benefit from taking steps to reduce their risk of a stroke. That includes controlling blood pressure and cholesterol, stopping or avoiding smoking, controlling blood sugar in diabetes, and being active even in older age.

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India’s Environment Policies: A Year Of Change – Analysis

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By Rajendra Shende*

The only legacy of the previous government that India’s Minister of Environment, Forest and Climate Change Prakash Javadekar carries with him is the name of the building from which he operates – Indira Prayavaran Bhavan (Indira Environment House). Everything else about him portrays a refreshingly stark Indian aspirations and sculpting of a new heritage of environmental governance.

There are clearly two camps. One, proclaims that in total disregard for value of nature and care for the ecosystem on which lives of many poor depend, the clearance for the industrial projects have been given primarily to display the speed of clearance. The other camp, though appreciative of the faster clearances, would like to see further acceleration though they are uncertain (and even worried) about how the monitoring of the conditions of clearances would be implemented.

Javadekar has mastered modern management tools of ‘360 degree self-appraisal’. He has graded himself with humble marks of 5 out of 10 but with zealous vows to get much higher grades in coming year. His honesty probably will take him to slightly higher grade for the first year. However, more than that, his keen aspiration to catch up with higher score is reflection of what PM Modi is inspiring the nation to do.

What is missed in most of the one-year assessments of the Environment Ministry so far is the performance of the ministry in ‘environmental diplomacy’ in negotiating the environmental accords at global level. Also missed from assessment is what more needs to be done at global level in coming year which heralds huge opportunities to demonstrate India’s international leadership and to benefit PM Modi’s agenda for the poor and inclusive growth.

Javadekar has consistently conveyed PM Modi’s ambitious national agenda at the international environmental meetings and skillfully transformed it for effective negotiations, be it on Convention on Biodiversity to preserve the ecosystems, or the Montreal Protocol that aims to protect the Ozone Layer or Kyoto Protocol on climate change.

In Kyoto Protocol negotiations, he has diluted the insistence of the developed countries for all developing countries and particularly India, China and other emerging countries to take legally binding targets, by claiming that India is already on target of achieving its energy intensity reduction (20-25 percent, though not legally binding) by 2020, where as most of the developed countries have not fulfilled their own targets promised under the Kyoto Protocol for 2012 and not even any where near in achieving them even by 2020. Indeed most of the international assessments including that of United Nations have confirmed India’s performance of being on track to achieve the target. Javadekar is now insisting at the United Nations platform and at Major Economy Forum that India can achieve even non-binding targets but developed countries are not serious about their pre-2020 targets agreed earlier as per Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and later as per Copenhagen accord of 2009. He argues that India still would like to take proactive stand in Paris meeting by submitting and discussing its INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) and striving to achieve them.

The finance and technology transfer for the developing countries are still the issues at the core of the negotiations. Taking on legally binding reduction targets for Green House Gases (GHGs) still hangs at the door. But India is now certainly considered as wiser and skillful negotiator and no longer a frustrating obstructionist who lounges for scoring the brownie points on divisive arguments between developed and developing countries.

In the international meetings on the Montreal Protocol which is aimed at protecting the stratospheric ozone layer and which is termed as the most successful international environmental treaty by any standard, India recently regained its position as one of the global leaders that contributed to the success of the Montreal Protocol. For more than six years, negotiations on thorny issue of HFCs (Hydro Fluorocarbons) were doggedly blocked mainly by India and few other countries on technical grounds. HFCs were developed as substitute for CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons), which are ozone-depleting chemicals. HFCs helped in implementing the Montreal Protocol. However, though HFCs have zero ozone depleting potential, they have very high global warming potential. In case of commonly used HFCs, it is nearly 2000 times more than Carbon Dioxide. Kyoto Protocol included reduction of emissions of HFCs. However, recognizing that negotiations on Climate are proceeding with glacial speed and early benefits of reducing use of HFCs cannot be availed for limiting the temperature rise, countries like USA, Canada and other small island countries initiated a proposal for reduction of production and consumption of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. India considered that issue of HFCs reduction should be tackled under Kyoto Protocol. Further, It argued that alternatives to HFCs are not fully ready. Though India’s stand did have some merits, international environmental diplomacy demanded the continuation of the dialogue. Javadekar, during his first participation in the Montreal Protocol meeting did exactly that. India has now proposed an amendment to the Montreal Protocol for reduction of production and consumption of HFCs with conditions of financial assistance and transfer of proven technologies and allowing the grace period to initiate the action as compared to the developed countries. The logjam is removed without diluting the national interest.

In the globalized world of 21st century, where campaigns like ‘ Make in India’ and ‘ Digital India’ have international repercussions, India has to do much more in environmental diplomacy. A meeting last month in Geneva on Stockholm Convention on toxic chemicals called Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), India was shockingly isolated during the negotiations on its stand of not accepting the United Nations scientific finding on a toxic chemical called Pentachlorophenol-PCP, which is used in wood treatment. India refused to accept the science based global consensus on banning the PCP. For the first time in the history of environmental negotiations, the voting took place on the issue of banning of PCP, because of Indian position. The total defeat of Indian argument became evident when 94 countries voted for banning, 2 including India opposed and 8 remained absent. India could have avoided such extreme position by sharp and quick diplomacy, even though it had disagreements with UN’s and WHO’s science reports.

Year 2015, a second year of new government, will see three more important UN meetings internationally. First, in Addis Ababa, on Finance and Development in July. Second, agreeing to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at UN General Assembly in New York in September and lastly Climate change meeting in Paris in December. India has to continue demonstrating its environmental proactive stewardship at these meetings to keep the momentum built so far.

These meetings provide the opportunities to further Modi’s agenda for inclusive growth, enhancing youth employment, clean India and clean energy. Climate change negotiations, for example, can no longer be considered only about rise of temperature in longer term, but also about rise in air pollution in shorter term, due to use of fossil fuels. The opportunities to deploy clean and renewable energy not only benefits people’s health but also saves money by importing less of oil and coal. Energy efficiency is about saving money and reducing air pollution. Adopting SDGs would also serve as catalyst to push ahead many of the PM Modi’s initiatives like smart cities, housing, sanitation and poverty reduction.

There is much talk about innovation in technology and innovation in policies for India’s inclusive growth. The new government’s environment ministry also needs innovation in its environmental diplomacy.

*Rajendra Shende, an IIT-alumni, is chairman of the TERRE Policy Centre and former director UNEP. He can be contacted at shende.rajendra@gmail.com

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EU-Pakistan Relationship: Looking Beyond The Trading Partnership – Analysis

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By Ana Ballesteros-Peiró*

The relationship between the EU and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has grown in recent years in the fields of politics and development. However, although the EU is regarded as a strong economic player it is still seen as a weak political power. The EU intends to change that view by using its position as a development and aid donor as its main strategy to foster democracy and strengthen Pakistan’s institution-building. The main areas of cooperation are development, trade, humanitarian assistance and sectoral co-operation on energy, environment, health, transport, migration and climate change. The challenge for both partners is to get to know each other and build up mutual trust as the intention is to develop a long-term relationship.

Analysis:

Over the past 10 years the EU has started to broaden its relations with Asian countries beyond being merely a trading partner. Indeed, the EU is Pakistan’s largest trading partner. Nonetheless, with the beginning of the 21st century, the EU has realised it needs to develop stronger and broader policies with Asian countries. Pakistan has been on the periphery of the EU’s policy in Asia. Its interest in the country has grown mainly because of the presence of European troops in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, the link with home-grown terrorism and strong US and British insistence that the EU should help stabilise the country. [1] US aid to Pakistan has been irregular, with periods of high disbursement of funds and periods of aid freeze. Regardless of economic aid, considerable military assistance has made it subject to criticism from Pakistan’s perspective, although it is precisely what Islamabad has mainly demanded from Washington. After the US Congress passed what is known as the Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill (2009), the US Administration decided to separate security from development assistance. [2] The EU’s perspective has chosen to follow a different path from the US. Nevertheless, regardless of their different approaches, both partners should contribute to Pakistan’s stabilisation.

The cornerstone of the EU is democracy. Thus, the basis for the agreements between the EU and Pakistan is democracy and its underpinning values: respect for human rights, good governance and the rule of law. Since 1995, the EU has included democracy and human rights clauses in its foreign policy and its development cooperation. The promotion of democracy has become a key element of the EU’s development cooperation with Pakistan, not only because of its added value, but also because of security concerns. In October 2009 the European Parliament adopted a resolution called ‘Democracy-building in external relations’. The paper formally called for the co-ordination of its external action with the promotion of democratic values, human rights and development policy instruments. Among other principles, it endorsed the UN’s definition of democracy. [3]

As part of its promotion of democracy, the EU involves civil society organisations and it has also linked the observation of elections to its foreign policy. The European Initiative for Democracy and Human Rights (EIDHR) and the EU Election Observation Mission (EOM) are the instruments used for the implementation of democracy, good governance, strengthening of electoral frameworks and human rights. Considering Pakistan’s history of frequent transitions, during which the regime has periodically changed from military to weak civilian government, the EU regards civil society organisations as the best allies for stabilisation and development on a long-term perspective. The EOM is possibly one of the EU’s best-known instruments in Pakistan. The EU sent missions to Pakistan for the 1997, 2002, 2008 and 2013 elections. In 2008, the mission was a boost to confidence in Pakistan’s transition at an especially delicate moment. In 2013 the EOM comprised 52 long-term observers, 46 short-term ones and 11 core team members. The election marked a milestone in the history of democracy in Pakistan, as it was the first time in its history that a democratically-elected civilian government handed power over to another peacefully. The high turn-out was a sign that the population is still involved in the process of choosing their leaders. Nevertheless, democracy is not only about holding elections. The EOM’s reports, although valuing the efforts made, reflected the main problems and weaknesses of the electoral framework. Pakistani politicians have usually considered the reports’ recommendations an interference in their domestic affairs.

The most prominent feature of the EU’s policy towards Pakistan is the link established between its economic and commercial policy and democracy and human rights. The 5-Year Engagement Plan (2007-13) was developed according to the documents drafted by Pakistan: Vision 2030, Medium-term Development Framework (MTDF) and the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-I, 2004). They follow the recommendations of the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals’ strategies, focused on halving poverty between 1990 and 2015. The latest policy agenda, EU-Pakistan Multi-Annual Indicative Programme (2014-20), has varied slightly. The main documents used in the policy agenda are Vision 2025 and PRSP-II (2010). PSPR is a comprehensive country-based strategy for poverty reduction that the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank require from countries considered for debt relief or before receiving aid from donors. The document should contain an assessment of poverty and a description of ‘the macroeconomic, structural, and social policies and programs that a country will pursue over several years to promote growth and reduce poverty, as well as external financing needs and the associated sources of financing’. [5] The outlines of the policy agenda for Pakistan are based on three sectors (indicative amounts):

  1. Rural Development (€340 million). This sector has three specific objectives: reinforcement of the performance of local government structures; improvement of rural livelihoods; and augmenting the nutritional status of women and children in rural areas. Pakistan’s population is still basically rural, and this is where poverty is more prevalent. Its urban population, though increasing, stands at 36.8%. Agriculture thus remains important for the economy. It accounts for 25% of the GDP and employs around 40% of the labour force. Health expenditure is barely 2.5% of GDP and Pakistan still has to fight against polio, high infant mortality rates (69 per 1,000), a high maternal mortality ratio (260 deaths per 100,000 live births), malnutrition (58%) and severe food insecurity (28%).
  2. Education (€210 million). The specific objectives are to improve equitable access to education, the quality of education and the productive capacity and employability of workers. The UNDP Human Development Index (2014) shows Pakistan ranking among the lowest (146th out of 198), with one of the lowest investments in education (2.4% of GDP). Only 54.9% of the population is literate (2005-12). The figures presented in PRSP-II show that literacy-rate growth is too slow (53% in 2004/05, 54% in 2005/06 and 55% in 2006/07). Another problem that has been identified is the lack of a skilled workforce in a still rapidly growing and young population. Pakistan’s population is considered to be above 182 million (2013), [6] about half of which is aged below 25. Given its growth (an average annual growth rate of 1.7 and a fertility rate of 3.2 for 2010-15), its population might be above 231 million by 2030. This demographic pressure will continue to contribute to high unemployment and migration patterns.
  3. Good governance, human rights and the rule of law (€97 million). The specific objectives are to reinforce the functioning of democratic institutions and electoral processes at all levels, support federalisation and decentralisation of the public administration in provinces and districts and improve security and the rule of law. Pakistan ranks 108th of 167 countries in the Democracy Index (The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2014) and 126th of 175 countries according to the Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International, 2014). Security is still one of the main concerns that affects the country at all levels.

The EU has increased its disbursement in humanitarian aid and development cooperation by €600 million per year compared with the previous plan. The EU aims to raise the level of coordination and cooperation with its member states and other donors. ‘The EU Delegation, Germany, Denmark, France, Italy, Netherlands and the United Kingdom are implementing medium to long-term cooperation programmes with Pakistan representing over 95% of all EU assistance to the country’. [7] The development and humanitarian projects cover a wide range of sectors, including: (a) peace building and stabilisation; (b) enhancing democracy and human rights; (c) building macroeconomic stability with high economic growth that will accelerate job creation and reduce poverty; (d) ensuring the effective delivery of basic public services such as education, health, water and sanitation and social protection; and (e) supporting regional integration. [8] The European Community Humanitarian Office (ECHO) became operational in Pakistan in the 1990s. ECHO’s assistance is based on vulnerability criteria. In 2013 it made the second biggest contribution to the country (€55 million, or 27% of total foreign aid), while it allocated €45 million in 2014, €5 million of which was aimed at assisting internally-displaced people. Pakistan’s poverty shows considerable regional disparities. The EU has identified Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and the Federal Administered Tribal Areas as the most vulnerable areas. In Sindh, ECHO is developing a programme for undernourished children and food insecurity. [9]

Evolution of an institutional rapprochement

The EU’s relationship with Pakistan began in 1962, when, as the European Economic Community, it established diplomatic relations with Islamabad. Pakistan and the EU have since signed three Generation Agreements on trade. [10] The first, the EC-Pakistan Commercial Cooperation Agreement was signed in 1976. An office of the European Commission was the EU’s first institutional representation in the country. It was established in Islamabad in 1985, to be upgraded into a delegation three years later. The second (five-year) Generation Agreement was signed in 1986 and was mainly devoted to commerce, economy and development cooperation. The third agreement took longer to sign for a variety of reasons. From 1995, the EU started introducing human rights clauses in its commercial policy. The agreement was further postponed after the nuclear tests in May 1998 and the coup of October 1999. During military rule, relations were almost frozen, except for relief aid. It was not until Pakistan backed the US-led coalition in Afghanistan after 9/11 that the EU re-started talks with the Musharraf government. Since the 1999 coup, the EU had sent periodical delegations to Pakistan to persuade the General to hold elections and allow a civilian government to form. Although there were elections in 2002, the European Observation Mission described them as non-democratic. This factor limited relations to a low level.

After much delay, in 2004, the Third Cooperation Agreement with Pakistan entered into force. This agreement is the current legal and political basis for the relationship. The last five-year cooperation plan broadened its remit into further areas: strategic/political; security; democracy, governance, human rights and socio-economic development; trade and investment; energy; and sectoral cooperation. It also established an EU-Pakistan Joint Commission. Several meetings at the highest level followed this institutional rapprochement. In 2007 the first meeting was held in Islamabad; the second took place in March 2009 in Brussels and the third in Islamabad in March 2010.

2012 EU-Pakistan trade data

2012 EU-Pakistan trade data

With the Pakistani elections of 18 February 2008, the EU found itself in a more comfortable position. It could deal with a democratically-elected civilian government. Since then, the EU’s main thrust has been to facilitate the transition and consolidate democratic institutions. Two summits in 2009 and 2010 opened up a bilateral dialogue. The first EU-Pakistan summit was held on 17 June 2009 in Brussels. The European representation was made up of Vaclav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic, José Manuel Durão Barroso, President of the European Commission, and Javier Solana, High Representative for the EU’s Common and Security Policy. President Asif Ali Zardari attended on behalf of Pakistan. They discussed security-related issues, especially after events in Pakistan bore witness to rising insecurity.

Security cooperation with Pakistan from the EU’s perspective is aimed at improving counter-terrorism capabilities (especially in the field of law enforcement and criminal justice) and strengthening the police force’s competences. They discussed other issues such as the deterioration of the security situation in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the tribal areas, as well as the requirement of regional stability with its neighbours. They emphasised the need to achieve safe and sustainable energy supplies, given Pakistan’s acute energy provision problems. For the government of Pakistan though, one of the most important issues was the request for further access for Pakistani goods to the European markets and preferential tariff regime concessions.

The office of the European Commission was turned into a fully-fledged delegation with a staff of 80 when the Treaty of Lisbon came into force in December 2009. The head of the delegation, Lars-Gunnar Wigemark, is accredited as an ambassador of the EU in Pakistan. The Delegation coordinates with the embassies and ambassadors of member states representing the EU’s interests and policies in Islamabad. Granting the status of ambassador to the head of the office adds to the institutionalisation of the presence of the EU in Pakistan and bears witness to the intention of establishing a long-term relationship.

The second summit was held in June 2010 in Brussels. Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council, and José Manuel Durão Barroso, President of the European Commission, and Karel de Gucht, Commissioner for Trade, represented the EU, while Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Foreign Minister, and Makhdoom Mohammad Amin Fahim, Commerce Minister, represented Pakistan. According to the Joint Statement, the aim of this summit was ‘to set the basis for a strategic dialogue aimed at forging a partnership for peace and development rooted in shared values, principles and commitments. In this context leaders reaffirmed their determination to jointly address regional and global security issues, to promote respect for human rights, economic and trade cooperation and provision of humanitarian assistance, and to cooperate to further strengthen Pakistan’s democratic government and institutions’. [11] The EU-Pakistan 5-year Engagement Plan was adopted in 2012, after the Lisbon Treaty came into force.

EU-Pakistan trade flows and balance. Source: European Union, Trade in goods with Pakistan.Source: Source: European Union, Trade in goods with Pakistan.

EU-Pakistan trade flows and balance. Source: European Union, Trade in goods with Pakistan.Source: Source: European Union, Trade in goods with Pakistan.

Summits have since then been followed by Strategic Dialogue meetings. The first was held in Islamabad in April 2013, while the latest took place in Brussels in March 2014. On 12 December 2013 (to become effective on 1 January 2014), the EU granted Pakistan the much sought-after GSP+ status by an overwhelming majority. This initiative has facilitated the entrance of Pakistan’s products at a zero tariff and more than 70% at a preferential rate. Therefore the trade surplus with the EU enjoyed by Pakistan since 2010 is expected to increase in the following years. Pakistan’s exports are mainly textiles (41.8%), clothing (33.6%) and leather products (13.5%). The EU exports mechanical and electrical machinery (48%), chemicals and pharmaceuticals (13.5%) and telecommunication equipment (12.4%). [12]

Weaknesses and lessons learnt

Although it has been emphasised that the EU-Pakistan relationship is based on shared values, there does not seem to be a clear-cut understanding; the norms and values that have made possible the construction of a supranational institution like the EU do not coincide with those of the state of Pakistan. While European countries have ceded a good part of their sovereignty to the Union’s institutions, Pakistan is more likely to defend its autonomy and its right for others not to interfere in its domestic affairs. The price some partners have to pay for their alliances differs. This is especially true of Pakistan. Its different governments have lost legitimacy and popularity because of their relationship with the US. As a result of recent events, such as the drone attacks or the promulgation of the Kerry-Lugar-Bergman Bill, acceptance of interference in Pakistan’s affairs has been considered a price too high to pay. Elected politicians do not have the same powers as military leaders. The position of Pakistan’s politicians is weak due to political fragmentation and open criticism by the media. They also lack the coercive power of the military. Democratic institutions have been severely damaged after almost 40 years of interference from military rule. The army has developed an economic emporium which makes it an elite in its own right, besides devoting much of the national budget to defence and controlling foreign and defence policies. What role the EU has in mind for the military is something that needs to be debated. It is obvious that they are necessary for Pakistan to become more secure and prosperous, but also that they should be part of the solution, not the problem.

Summits are a means used by the EU to deal with its partners and have become an essential tool for decision-making. They helped legitimise Pakistani leaders in the eyes of their population. It was essential for them to achieve a new political alliance, given the troubled relations with the US. But misunderstandings can arise, too, from the different visions held by Europeans and Pakistanis about the nature of the meetings and suitable interlocutors. An example occurred at the second summit. In February 2010 the Pakistan Foreign Office informed the EU that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani would attend instead of President Zardari. Surprisingly, the EU considered that with Gilani’s attendance it could not be called a ‘summit’ and that President Zardari should represent Pakistan, as they expected representation at the ‘highest level’. The message was conveyed to the Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, at a meeting with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton on 16 February. [13] But what the EU considered a ‘protocol mismatch’ could have easily been considered a disregard for Pakistan’s latest constitutional advances. The signature of the 18th Amendment of the Constitution of Pakistan (19 April 2010) devolved power from the President to the Prime Minister. It formally declared Pakistan to be a parliamentary republic instead of the military’s preferred semi-presidential system. It was an effort, too, to reinforce democratic institutions in Pakistan. Given the EU’s declared support for democracy, it should have welcomed the move from the very beginning. At last, the summit was finally held on 4 June, instead of 21 April as originally scheduled, and acknowledged the new system by welcoming the Prime Minister as the highest political authority. The EU could avoid situations like this by raising its level of awareness of the situation in Pakistan through the promotion of research and dialogue between both partners’ academics and experts.

Another problem with the EU is that it is not regarded as a serious political and security actor. In that field, the institutional framework and the policy conditionality of the Union prevents it from being perceived as a strong power. The focus that the EU has placed on trade and democracy, and the fact that it is virtually absent in the field of security and military support (except for counter-terrorism and police training programmes), limits its potential influence on Pakistan. Some consider that the aid and development approach is a mistaken and out-dated policy. It not only limits how it is perceived by the military, but also by political parties. Pakistan’s closest allies (the US, China and Saudi Arabia) have traditionally been a source of weapons’ provision. The question that arises is what strategy to follow in case a military government should return to power. This scenario is particularly feasible given the required push for Pakistan’s civilian government to reduce the role of the military in foreign, defence and intelligence affairs. The problem lies with what the civilian government can achieve on its own (if it wants to achieve it) and what the military consent to. In this equation, how can the EU engage the military with a ‘democracy’ discourse? The EU should not, at any cost, feed the Pakistan military’s desire for parity with India. The EU can instead provide its own experience with some of its member states. The Pakistani military can benefit from other countries’ experiences. The prevalent role of the military in the dictatorship in Spain changed after the death of Francisco Franco in 1975. The EU’s role in Spanish development and democratic consolidation was essential. What is most valuable for Pakistan is that the Spanish military gained the respect of Spain’s population and of the rest of the world once it learnt to be a professional force under civilian authority.

The fall into disrepute caused by foreign interventions in Iraq (2003) and Afghanistan (2001-14) has harmed the EU’s and Pakistan’s perceptions of each other. Pakistanis consider that claims about democracy and human rights are only excuses for foreign powers to apply neo-colonialist policies. Although this may be reflected in the policies of some individual member states, it might be the EU itself that pays the price. This lack of trust can only be addressed through a dialogue between equals. Europe can bear witness to the success (regardless of the current crisis) achieved by the acceptance of difference in its framework of common values. Pakistan needs to address its own issues with its provinces, find a path to integrate different visions of Pakistan and undertake a serious policy review. The construction of the ‘ideology of Pakistan’ as the national identity is a straitjacket for minorities and an obstacle to the integration of Pakistan’s otherwise plural population, especially its heterogeneous Islamic practices. One of the main concerns for the European allies is the plight of minorities in Pakistan and the duplicity with which Islamabad deals with leaders and members of different terrorist groups. [14] It would be wise to bear in mind Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s Constituent Assembly speech on 11 August 1947. He provided a framework for the acceptance of Pakistan’s plural society (ethnic, religious, sectarian, linguistic), which should be considered a strength rather than a weakness.

Conclusion:

The challenge for Europe is to achieve a comprehensible and credible policy towards Pakistan. The EU needs to be regarded as more than just a trade partner. Policy and defence remain weak areas of its foreign policy with Pakistan. Europe’s foreign policy towards Pakistan requires Islamabad to change its behaviour, but this can be regarded as interference. At the same time, Pakistan needs to understand that respect for human rights is not an empty demand on paper, but one that has to be matched with real policies.

Europe acknowledges the sacrifices made by Pakistan after 2001. Nonetheless, Pakistan must admit its own policy mistakes. A recent declaration by the European Parliament (9 February 2015) issued a warning about European funds being channelled, deliberately or through neglect, to terrorists groups. Furthermore, it warned Pakistan that the European Court of Auditors and the European External Action Service will scrutinise Pakistan since ‘there is a suggestion of evidence of support for terrorist activity’. [15] The result, it reads, will be the total or partial freezing of funds. In this regard, the European Parliament demands from the Union a more coherent approach, avoiding double standards and acting consistently if it wants to be regarded as a reliable ally. Warnings should thus be taken seriously. The EU is also taking a firm stand on Pakistan after it lifted the moratorium on the death penalty. Since 2014, there have been at least 55 executions. The Government of Pakistan stated that it would only execute those convicted of terrorism. Nonetheless, it is also using the Anti-Terrorism Law for other convicts. It would also be breaking its own law, as it currently intends to execute a man who was convicted when he was 14 years old. A juvenile cannot be sentenced to death according to Pakistan’s Juvenile Justice Systems Ordinance (2000).

Pakistan could take advantage of a partner that has expressly manifested its intentions of establishing a long-term relationship, and that has not cut aid, regardless of the many political crises. The EU’s role should be that of a partner in dialogue, allowing Pakistan to find its way and devise its own its formula for democratic consolidation. The rounds of talks, summits and visits should pave the way for achieving a consensus on the process and agreeing which reforms should be undertaken. This should not mean that there are no limits. Although the EU is well aware that reforms take time, it is growing impatient with Pakistan’s inability to protect its minorities. As a donor, the EU’s funds are not meant to become a substitute for revenue generation. After all, partnership comes with responsibilities.

About the author:
*Ana Ballesteros Peiró is a PhD Student in Islamic Studies at the Universidad Autonoma of Madrid and a Researcher at the Observatory of Politics and Elections in the Arab and Muslim World OPEMAM.

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute

Notes:
[1] S. Islam (2013), ‘EU-Pakistan Relations: The Challenge of Dealing with a Fragile State’, in Christiansen, Kirchner & Murray (Eds.), The Palgrave Handbook of EU-Asia Relations, Palgrave Macmillan.

[2] For more information on US assistance to Pakistan see Aid to Pakistan by the Numbers.

[3] The principles are described in European Parliament resolution of 22 October 2009 on democracy building in the EU’s external relations .

[4] Vision 2025 was approved in May 2014 by the current government. It substitutes the Visions drafted by previous governments, such as Vision 2010 and Vision 2030.

[5] For further details, see Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP).

[6] The latest census was carried out in 1998. A new one was scheduled for 2008 but was cancelled. One of the reasons is that the allocation of resources per province depends on the population.

[7] EU-Pakistan Multi-Annual Indicative Programme 2014-2020 , p. 5.

[8] Ibid .

[9] Sindh has a higher rate of food insecurity (72%) than the Pakistani average (58%).

[10] Information about institutional, trade and development relations between the EU and Pakistan can be consulted on the website of the Delegation of the European Union to Pakistan.

[11] For a complete review of the text see Second EU-Pakistan Summit Brussels, 4 June 2010, Joint Statement.

[12] Data available on the website of the Delegation of the European Union to Pakistan .

[13] Pakistan-EU Summit faces protocol hurdle. Dawn, 18/II/2010.

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Unemployment: China’s Internal Stability Concerns – Analysis

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By Sriparna Pathak Raimedhi*

The World Economic Outlook database, released by the International Monetary Fund on April 14, 2015 has stated that China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will drop to 6.8 per cent from 7.4 per cent last year. The biggest challenge that China is now faced with however, is not the declining rates of growth but unemployment, which could trigger social unrest. The slowdown in growth rate has raised concerns among officials that there will be a spike in unemployment. Providing employment to everyone of working age in China has been a high priority for Beijing, as employment is regarded as not just a means through which citizens can earn a livelihood, but also as a guarantee of social stability and control. In as far back as 2009, the then Commerce Minister Chen Deming had stated that when economic growth slows, the “chances of possible social unrest increase as well.” The “mass incidents” that China witnesses each year has unemployment as a major reason, and amidst economic downturns, the possibilities of such “incidents” only increase.

In fact, the number of labour incidents in the country has increased. According to data compilation on the issue undertaken by Hong Kong based China Labour Bulletin, the number of such incidents has increased in the second half of 2014. According to records, there have been 259 such incidents, as reported in the media during this period. In comparison, there were 148 such incidents in the first six months of the year. The numbers have concerned the leadership as this could fuel the kind of unrest that had prompted the Tiananmen Square crackdown on protesting students in 1989. Emerging from these concerns is China’s ever increasing domestic security budget, which for the last three consecutive years has exceeded the military budget. Maintenance of social stability is essential to continue the one party rule of the Communist Party in China. However, given the soaring rates of unemployment, concerns are set to increase.

The real jobless rate in China is deemed to be much higher than official figures. In a bid to control unemployment, the State Council, on May 1 this year, announced new measures to boost employment in the country. These include more flexible tax breaks to companies to hire the unemployed, as well as preferential loans and incentives for new graduates and farmers. About 7.5 million graduates are estimated to join the labour market this year, and the new measures unveiled by the State Council mark the first signs of distress in the labour market. Because of the rapid commercialisation of the country’s higher education system over the past few years, a huge oversupply of graduates has been created, whose skills or the lack thereof render them unsuitable in the current job market. Additional woes now are the fact that the hiring capacity of enterprises are reduced, given declining profit margins amidst slowing rates of growth in the country.

In order to understand better the reasons behind the concerns on unemployment arising amidst slowing growth, it becomes pertinent to take a closer look at China’s employment statistics. The following graph reveals how growth in employment has taken place in the country in the last decade.

Graph 1: Total Number of Employed Persons  Unit: 10,000 persons    Source(s): China Statistical Yearbooks (2005-14)

Graph 1: Total Number of Employed Persons
Unit: 10,000 persons
Source(s): China Statistical Yearbooks (2005-14)

As seen in the graph, a major decline in employment took place in 2008, after the onset of the subprime mortgage crisis which emerged in the U.S. and translated into an economic crisis for China, as its prime export destinations in the U.S. and EU no longer had the capacity to absorb Chinese exports. The drop in employment was 2.13 per cent. About 20 million migrant workers were laid off in the wake of the economic crisis. Growth in employment started picking up momentum again in 2010, but till 2013 has not reached the peak it had in 2007. The average growth of rate in employment in the last ten years has been a miniscule 0.23 per cent. According to data from the International Labour Organization, unemployment as a percentage of total labour force from 2010-14 has been 4.6 per cent, and this rate has seen on a constant upward swing.

Conversely, the number of entrants in the labour market has been increasing rapidly, which increases the pressure for employment generation. The following graph shows the increase in undergraduates and post graduates in the country in the previous decade.

Graph 2: Total Number of Graduates and Undergraduates, 2004-13  Unit: persons    Source(s): China Statistical Yearbooks 2005-14

Graph 2: Total Number of Graduates and Undergraduates, 2004-13
Unit: persons
Source(s): China Statistical Yearbooks 2005-14

While the growth in the number of post graduates has not witnessed much growth, the growth in the number of undergraduates is on a constant increasing trend. The only decline has been witnessed in 2013, when the total number of undergraduates and college students decreased by 510,126. The average growth rate of undergraduates and college students from 2004-2013 is 4.27 per cent. This is much higher than the average growth rate in employment in the country, which as stated previously is a miniscule 0.23 per cent.

Therefore, as revealed by statistics, the pressure on the labour market is immense, and definitely is not in line with the goals of the creation of a “Harmonious Society”. The crux of this concept lies in the achievement of social stability while recognising the inequalities and problems in the Chinese society. Employment generation is a constant feature of the country’s five year plans. However there is a huge mismatch between the goals of the five year plans and the ground realities. In Northeastern Liaoning province, for example, the government stated in April this year that it has reduced its 2015 job creation target to 400,000 from 700,000 to reflect a “severe” employment trend. Liaoning’s growth rate was merely 1.9 percent in the first three months this year, which has been the slowest in the 31 provinces of the country.

According to the “Chinese dream” and the plans for urbanisation, there is a need to create new and meaningful urban employment. As such, the government will have to ensure sufficient volume and quality employment. However, given the high costs of living in the urban spheres along with conditions like increasing space restrictions fail to help the situation. Added to this are the problems of slowing growth and reduced profits for enterprises, which in turn lead to higher levels of unemployment in the country. The top leadership of China has consistently stated that the current scenario of the Chinese economy is the “new normal”, in which the economy has shifted gear from the previous high speed to a medium to high speed growth rate. However, what had not been factored in were the additional pressures that will be faced when unemployment shoots up amidst gear shifting from high growth rates to lower growth rates.

Faced with such issues at hand, the State Council has come up with emergency measures such as encouraging state firms to keep idle workers employed, providing tax breaks to companies that do not fire workers, and enticing businesses into hiring despite slackening economic growth. However, a disconnect is seen when there are growing reports of robots replacing human labour in the industrial sector. On the one hand, the State Council has issued guidelines to ensure unemployment does not shoot up, and on the other, in places like Guangzhou, robots are being put in place to reduce human labour to the minimum. If more such cases of introducing robots were to take place, then the State Council’s efforts at reducing unemployment would be significantly undermined.

In 2008, when massive unemployment was the main characteristic of the labour market, sporadic protests by unemployed workers in export oriented industries increased. Rural areas even erupted in large scale riots. Given the past experience, the State Council has made the smart move of not laying off workers. Nevertheless, how these policies fare when additional entries in the labour market take place is yet to be seen. In all probability, additional measures will have to be implemented and a rethink on sustainable growth will be required. While the state has built up capacity to control unrest or dissent in the form of the ever increasing budget for maintaining domestic stability, but the state cannot forever use the tool of coercion to control unrest in the face of ever increasing unemployment.

*The writer is an Associate Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata

Courtesy: ( Science, Technology & Security Forum ) 5 June 2015

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NASA Spacecraft Detects Impact Glass On Surface Of Mars

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NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has detected deposits of glass within impact craters on Mars. Though formed in the searing heat of a violent impact, such deposits might provide a delicate window into the possibility of past life on the Red Planet.

During the past few years, research has shown evidence about past life has been preserved in impact glass here on Earth. A 2014 study led by scientist Peter Schultz of Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, found organic molecules and plant matter entombed in glass formed by an impact that occurred millions of years ago in Argentina. Schultz suggested that similar processes might preserve signs of life on Mars, if they were present at the time of an impact.

Fellow Brown researchers Kevin Cannon and Jack Mustard, building on the previous research, detail their data about Martian impact glass in a report now online in the journal Geology.

“The work done by Pete and others showed us that glasses are potentially important for preserving biosignatures,” Cannon said. “Knowing that, we wanted to go look for them on Mars and that’s what we did here. Before this paper, no one had been able to definitively detect them on the surface.”

Cannon and Mustard showed large glass deposits are present in several ancient, yet well-preserved, craters on Mars. Picking out the glassy deposits was no easy task. To identify minerals and rock types remotely, scientists measured the spectra of light reflected off the planet’s surface. But impact glass doesn’t have a particularly strong spectral signal.

“Glasses tend to be spectrally bland or weakly expressive, so signature from the glass tends to be overwhelmed by the chunks of rock mixed in with it,” said Mustard. “But Kevin found a way to tease that signal out.”

In a laboratory, Cannon mixed together powders with a similar composition of Martian rocks and fired them in an oven to form glass. He then measured the spectral signal from that glass.

Once Mustard had the signal from the lab glass, he used an algorithm to pick out similar signals in data from MRO’s Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM), for which he is the deputy principal investigator.

The technique pinpointed deposits in several Martian crater central peaks, the craggy mounds that often form in the center of a crater during a large impact. The fact the deposits were found on central peaks is a good indicator that they have an impact origin.

Knowing that impact glass can preserve ancient signs of life — and now knowing that such deposits exist on the Martian surface today — opens up a potential new strategy in the search for ancient Martian life.

“The researchers’ analysis suggests glass deposits are relatively common impact features on Mars,” said Jim Green, director of NASA’s planetary science division at the agency’s headquarters in Washington. “These areas could be targets for future exploration as our robotic scientific explorers pave the way on the journey to Mars with humans in the 2030s.”

One of the craters containing glass, called Hargraves, is near the Nili Fossae trough, a 400-mile-long (about 650-kilometer-long) depression that stretches across the Martian surface. The region is one of the landing site contenders for NASA’s Mars 2020 rover, a mission to cache soil and rock samples for possible return to Earth.

Nili Fossae trough is already of scientific interest because the crust in the region is thought to date back to when Mars was a much wetter planet. The region also is rife with what appear to be ancient hydrothermal fractures, warm vents that could have provided energy for life to thrive just beneath the surface.

“If you had an impact that dug in and sampled that subsurface environment, it’s possible that some of it might be preserved in a glassy component,” Mustard said. “That makes this a pretty compelling place to go look around, and possibly return a sample.”

MRO has been examining Mars with CRISM and five other instruments since 2006.

“This significant new detection of impact glass illustrates how we can continue to learn from the ongoing observations by this long-lived mission,” said Richard Zurek, MRO project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California.

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Saudi Arabia: Supreme Court Upholds Badawi Prison Sentence And 1,000 Lashes

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Saudi Arabia’s Supreme Court upheld a 10-year prison sentence and 1,000 lashes for Raif Badawi, the jailed blogger who set up the website “Free Saudi Liberals”, a forum for discussions on the role of religion in Saudi.

The verdict comes after international outrage and calls from human rights activists for clemency. The case has once again drawn strong criticism against Riyadh authorities. Amnesty International reacted commenting that “it is a dark day for freedom of expression”.

Badawi, who was convicted for alleged insults to Islam, was lashed 50 times on January 9 in public outside the al-Jafali mosque in Gedda, but the following two sessions were postponed for health reasons. Some 18 Nobel peace laureates mobilized for Badawi.

Raif’s wife, Ensaf Haidar, who is currently in Canada with her three children, stressed that the supreme court only took three months to hand down the verdict that is no longer appealable. “I was hoping that the approaching month of Ramadan (Muslim month of fasting that begins June 17) and that with Saudi’s new King, prisoners of conscience in the Kingdom would be freed”, provoked his wife.

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Congo: Students Riot After Final Exam Cancelled

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Police dispersed rioting students in the Republic of Congo after final exams were cancelled. Brazzaville authorities announced an investigation after this year’s exam questions were leaked online.

Police also questioned the national exams and courses director, Christophe Batantou, in connection to the case. Education minister Hellot Matson Mampouya said that the state is the damaged part and police is “actively searching” for those responsible. The security forces in the past hours however however had to confront rioting students with tear gas in the capital, Pointe-Noire and other cities, where they took the streets.

The cancellation of final exams, which affected around 66,500 candidates, was announced Friday after the questions were found to have been leaked on social media. The government assured students that a new timetable will be released soon to ensure the regular holding of exams.

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Congressional Briefing On US-India Nuclear Trade

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The US India Political Action Committee (USINPAC) hosted a “Congressional briefing on US-India Nuclear Trade” on June 4, in Washington, DC. to discuss opportunities and challenges in commencing US-India Nuclear Trade. The briefing included US Congressional Leadership, nuclear industry experts, think tank personnel, and leaders of the Indian American community.

The Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Congressman Ed Royce, kicked off the conference by saying, “As we continue to work through the nuclear deal, I am sure we will find a way to continue to engage and move forward on this issue of civilian nuclear cooperation. It is important because the needs of India for uninterrupted and affordable power are great. Nuclear power will provide this in India”.

For India, Ambassador Taranjit Singh Sandhu remarked, “I am happy to report breakthroughs in the last few months on the bilateral US-India civilian nuclear 123 agreement. There is robust exchange between our nuclear establishments. Nuclear energy is highly relevant to India’s energy security.”

The keynote speaker, Dr Udit Raj, Member of Parliament in the ruling BJP Government, said in his address, “The Indo-US relationship is not only important for these two countries but for the whole world. The way the countries are moving together forward will change the scenario of the world.”

Expressing that the Indian law on nuclear liability favored state owned nuclear enterprises such as Russia’s, Congressman Brad Sherman commented, “I know that we will get this straightened out. I want the US nuclear industry to play a prominent role in India’s development.”

Many leaders of the Indian American community had actively supported USINPAC in garnering support from lawmakers for the historic passage of the 2006 Hyde Act and facilitating congressional approval of the US-India 123 Agreement in 2008 that set the stage for US-India cooperation in civilian nuclear energy trade. These leaders descended on Capitol Hill to show their complete support for US-India nuclear trade.

Mr. Manish Antani from Los Angeles, commented “It is heartening to see strong political will from the Indian and US government leaders in operationalizing the US-India nuclear trade agreement and I laud USINPAC for actively facilitating this process.”

Sanjay Puri, USINPAC Chairman, remarked, “We are optimistic that USINPAC’s efforts and the Indian American community’s good wishes will materialize into commercial nuclear trade between US and India. It is a win-win situation.”

As a next step, USINPAC said it will engage with the US and Indian governments and the US Nuclear Infrastructure Council comprising more than 65 US nuclear companies to address the remaining challenges in commencing bilateral nuclear trade.

The post Congressional Briefing On US-India Nuclear Trade appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Modernizing Analytical Training For The 21st Century – Analysis

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Senior US intelligence leaders are starting to doubt whether ‘experts’ are the best forecasters of emerging risks. Regina Joseph, however, has other culprits in mind. Familiar cultural and bureaucratic obstacles may be more to blame for the foresight training and analysis problems intelligence agencies face today.

By Regina Joseph*

The aim of intelligence analysis is straightforward enough: to foresee emerging threats to the extent that one can prepare sufficiently in advance to either prevent or at least mitigate them. Research lies at the core of this enterprise in forecasting risk, whether via classified or unclassified data. But at a time when open source information is exponentially increasing in direct proportion to levels of uncertainty, how such foresight is conducted and by whom has become a key concern.

In 2011, the US government took a bold step in attempting to address those concerns. The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (or IARPA, a division of the Office of the Director of National intelligence) invested in a four-year exploration of the underpinnings of better foresight analysis. Known as the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program, the initiative used a tournament originally consisting of five teams of forecasters to determine which individuals were most adept at forecasting future geopolitical outcomes and which traits shaped the best. Investigators and observers alike were surprised by the tournament’s results.

Echoes from the last century

While the harnessing and development of expertise has become the default sine qua non of what is considered to be good analysis, there was a time when this was not necessarily supported by the entire US intelligence community. During the 1980s and 1990s, key analysts argued against the use of experts as the sole guide to good analytical ability. In his lauded collection of essays and articles in Psychology of Intelligence Analysis , CIA analyst Richards J. Heuer, Jr. suggested that expertise alone is simply not enough. Influenced by Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s and Amos Tversky’s investigations into human psychology and decision-making (summarized in Kahneman’s modern classic, “ Thinking Fast and Slow”), Heuer, Jr. proclaimed process in critical thinking as a better catalyst in analytical performance.

Heuer’s focus on cognitive style – a departure from academic and government thinking at the time – established a few clear boundaries. He believed, for instance, that training analysts to recognize their own cognitive biases had no positive impact in the accuracy of their foresight. In addition, Heuer, Jr. argued against placing an emphasis on analytical accountability. As he saw it, measuring analytical precision was a foolhardy pursuit due to the fog of uncertainty surrounding geopolitical affairs. His larger message instead emphasized the constant challenging of analytical assumptions—the “mental models” analysts developed (Heuer 1999)—by updating and refining through the use of alternative points of view.

Unfortunately, Heuer’s advice to avoid the trap of relying upon “more and better information” as an analytical solution was not always heeded by the intelligence community. Indeed, in his foreword to Heuer’s book , fellow CIA analyst Douglas MacEachin highlights the default tendency to throw more expertise at a problem when analysis goes wrong, as well as “the ideological and bureaucratic imperatives” that get in the way of more effective analytical techniques.

Fast forward to today, and the echoes of Heuer’s work reverberate as strongly in the practical realm as in the theoretical. In early 2015, the US intelligence community communicated its awareness that it could no longer conduct business as usual. At the beginning of March, CIA Director John Brennan announced a major restructuring of the Agency. A greater emphasis is to be placed on enhancing the skills of CIA staff by breaking down the walls between “operations” and “analysis”.

Prior to Brennan’s announcement, Jane Harman, CEO of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a former ranking Democrat on the US House Intelligence Committee, echoed the need for a “disruptive upgrade” and “smarter spying”. In several articles, she also highlighted the importance of developing a cyber-ready corps with open source media (especially social media) expertise. Adding to the burgeoning chorus of demands for improved intelligence analytical skills is the 9/11 Review Commission’s most recent report to FBI Director James B. Comey. In keeping with comments made by Brennan and Harman, it also urges the agency to accelerate its efforts in adapting its intelligence cadre to the increasing pace of threats.

Lessons to be learned

Indeed, Heuer’s important message now requires further review, given the amount of empirical data that has been gathered by researchers in recent years. This data has, in turn, been the key output of the winner of IARPA’s ACE tournament, the Good Judgment Project. Led by principal investigators Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at University of Pennsylvania, and Don Moore at University of California, Berkeley, the Project took cues from Tetlock’s own work, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Like Heuer, Tetlock eschewed the validity of experts as the best forecasters. However, unlike Heuer, Tetlock based his assessment on a clinical evaluation of the accuracy of thousands of forecasts made by experts and generalists alike. Tetlock’s examination suggested that open-minded generalists could be far better than experts in analyzing and predicting outcomes.

As recognized specialists in the fields of political judgment and decision-making, the Good Judgment team focused on—among other issues—the psychological qualities of perception and cognition apparent in the top analysts. Aided only by open source data, Good Judgment forecasters were able to surpass the forecasting accuracy of intelligence community analysts with access to classified information , thus substantiating Tetlock’s theory regarding the predominance of select generalists over experts.

But perhaps most germane to both public and private sector needs in light of mounting uncertainty was the determination that forecasting accuracy is a trainable skill. While the data collected by the Good Judgment Project supports Heuer’s primary assertion that the constant challenging of beliefs is an integral aspect of more accurate analysis, it also refutes his aversion to cognitive de-biasing and analytical accountability. The core results from The Good Judgment Project—train, team and track for better analytical training—demonstrate the statistically significant effect on forecasting accuracy achieved by teaching people how to recognize and limit their cognitive biases; gain awareness over the potential gap in confidence over what they think they know and what they actually know; how to think in an actively open-minded manner; and how to apply probabilities in a very granular way when assessing outcomes.

However, the gains made from training analysts in cognitive technique are not enough. The Good Judgment Project urges keeping analysts accountable by tracking their performance over time and teaming the best forecasters with each other to compound the effects of greater accuracy. Taken together, the results of the Good Judgment Project surpass the contrarian formidability of Heuer’s work and point the way forward in measurably improving analytical technique and preparing a new generation of analysts, whether in business, the intelligence community or other government departments.

Barriers…still

The final outcome of the ACE Program poses an obvious question: how could the success of the Good Judgment Project be factored into the modernization and improvement of 21st century intelligence analysis? With great difficulty is the short answer. Irrespective of the CIA’s recent announcement, the transition to new analytical standards will require time and patience, as well as new training and development programs. Analysts are rarely required to step back from their niche remits to take the broader and actively open-minded views that are foundational to better accuracy. Consequently, intelligence operatives are not taught how to develop this attribute. Moreover, stovepiping and the compartmentalization of analysis—impediments to the kind of crowdsourced teamwork from which Good Judgment’s most accurate forecasters benefited–won’t be easily reduced, whether in government or business circles. And let’s not forget that the politics of hierarchy also plays a role. When experts within bureaucracies serve vested interests, their replacement by process happens fitfully, if at all.

Entrenched cultures aren’t the only barriers that need breaking down in order to reform analytical structures. The vast stores of open source information that analysts must sift through will require better aggregation and filtering if this revolution in analytical affairs is to succeed. While machine learning, artificial intelligence and natural language processing methods are quickly ramping up to semantically trawl the zettabytes-worth of data the Internet contains, they have yet to be incorporated into a usable and widely distributed tool for analysts. Over time, as dependency on algorithms in forecasting risk increases, accountability will dictate putting human analysts at the front and center as a counterbalance to the limitations of computation alone.

The first quarter of 2015 could represent a watershed moment in history when the intelligence community acknowledged the need for a sea change in analytical approaches and a swift transition. While the recognition that change must come has arrived, the execution of its transition is far less assured.

*Regina Joseph is the founder of Sibylink, an international consultancy based in The Hague and New York devoted to providing strategic foresight on global issues through futures forecasting and analytical training. She is also a faculty member at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs, where she will be launching a Futures Lab in Fall 2015. Her website can be found at http://www.sibylink.com ; LinkedInhttps://www.linkedin.com/pub/regina-joseph/1/b21/780 ; Twitter: @Superforecastr

The post Modernizing Analytical Training For The 21st Century – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Will Pakistan Deliver More Instability To Afghanistan? – Analysis

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China’s silence on India’s call for United Nations actions against Pakistani-based extremist groups comes close on the heels of President Ashraf Ghani’s criticism of Pakistan’s failure to do more to rein the Taliban in.

It also followed the failure of the latest of several attempts sponsored by China since last autumn to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table. China is the largest foreign investor in Afghanistan, and there were hopes that its need for economic security would prompt it to persuade Pakistan, its all-weather friend, to stop training extremists and sending them across the Durand Line to destabilise Afghanistan.

Since becoming president last September, Ghani has tried to cultivate Pakistan in the hope of bringing peace to his country. But he was never the purblind optimist. ‘We hope Pakistan will deliver’, was his cautious statement when he was in New Delhi last April. That hope seems to have been dashed.

Anxious to stabilise Afghanistan and to put it on the path to progress Ghani started his term as president last September by inviting the Taliban to join his government – although they had disrupted all three elections since 2004 with violence and threats to multilane voters. That the elections went ahead and Afghanistan had peaceful transfers of constitutionally mandated power showed that the Taliban had not won out against the US-led Nato effort, which had achieved gains in that country.

But peace has yet to be created and consolidated in Afghanistan. The international community knows that Taliban are sustained by Pakistan and that the key to peace lies in Pakistan. So that is where Ghani has been trying to find it.

Ghani has had few alternatives. His overtures to Pakistan have never implied that he trusts Islamabad or that he is naive. Over the past decade, Pakistan has maintained safe havens for the Taliban and Haqqani networks and thwarted attempts at peace talks when it wished to.

Nevertheless, Ghani probably thought it worthwhile to improve ties with Pakistan because former President Hamid Karzai’s continual blaming of Pakistan did not bring peace to Afghanistan. But as Taliban violence continues to spiral Ghani told a meeting of the International Contact Group on Afghanistan on 21 May that President Nawaz Sharif’s assurance that Islamabad would not permit Pakistani territory to be used against Afghanistan needed to be translated into action.

Ghani’s latest statements make clear that Pakistan is not doing what Sharif said it would.

Pakistan’s considerations

Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan has long been driven by two outstanding considerations, which may have been understood by Washington – and in the capitals of other Nato member-states. But western leaders have shied away from acting upon the implications of what they have probably understood.

First, the premise of Pakistan’s policy is wrong . Pakistan views Afghanistan as a territory to be contested with India for influence in south Asia. Pakistan’s rulers, civilian or military, think that they must do their best to prevent India from gaining influence in Kabul.

In fact it is the US and its Nato allies – not India – that have blocked the return of the Taliban to Kabul since 2001. If Nato were to win a pro-Taliban leader would not be in power – and certainly not the Taliban. Rising Taliban violence actually testifies that Nato has not lost and continues to come under pressure from extremists, but the west is not prepared to pay the price in terms of men and money to win in Afghanistan.

Secondly, in the aftermath of 9/11, Pakistan realised it could not refuse to tackle the Taliban and incur America’s wrath. According to former President Musharraf, President George Bush threatened to bomb Pakistan ‘back to the stone age’ if it did not join forces against Al Qaeda.

So Pakistan crafted a method of promising to hunt down the Taliban in order to get military aid from the US . Washington knows that Pakistan continues to export extremists but chooses to believe that Pakistan will somehow quash them – and keeps giving Pak military aid, even as Taliban thuggery increases. That strategy – if it can indeed be called a strategy – has gained momentum under President Barack Obama, who is apparently desperate to withdraw all but 1,000 US troops from Afghanistan before he relinquishes office in January 2017.

That can only convince the Taliban and their Pakistani mentors that they have time to strengthen their position. Meanwhile more than $1 billion in US aid will likely be given to Pakistan – in the hope that it will fight terrorism.

What Islamabad has definitely achieved by casting itself in the role of America’s ally against terrorism over the last decade is to keep India and the US apart on Afghanistan. Some Americans, mindful of its doublespeak, perceive it as a “frenemy” but not many in Washington would seriously consider dropping their Pakistani card to please India – or to keep American troops in Afghanistan until the Taliban are defeated. Pakistan has been able to get masses of American aid because Washington wants to believe that Pakistan’s military is helping to trounce the Taliban. In short Pakistan preserves its importance in South Asia by training terrorists but promising – and appearing – to combat them.

Ghani has tried hard to address Pakistan’s concerns. He praised Pakistan and decided to send a small number of security officials for training to Pakistan. For this he was severely criticised, by former President Hamid Karzai and some former ministers, for giving too much to Pakistan and getting nothing in return. Ghani also appeared to offer an olive branch to Pakistan by suspending an arms deal with India. Significantly, he has not asked Pakistan to wage war against the Afghan Taliban – merely to steer them to the peace talks. Pakistani officials and the Taliban have taken part in several peace talks (sometimes sponsored by the US) over the years – but that is not the same thing as Islamabad persuading the Taliban to cease-fire. What is clear is that so far, Pakistan has shown neither the willingness nor the ability to persuade the Taliban to work towards a diplomatic solution.

The result has been more exchanges between Kabul and Islamabad and recent talks with the Taliban in Doha. Another round of Chinese-sponsored secret talks in western China failed at the end of May. Nothing emerged because the Taliban remain adamant that Nato’s withdrawal must be a precondition for talks. Meanwhile their summer offensive continues.

Karzai – unfortunately perhaps – has been proved right. He does not expect the Pakistani military, which trains the Taliban – to lead them into peace parleys. Meanwhile the Taliban leadership are ensconced in the north-western Pakistani town of Quetta.

And China’s apparent inability or reluctance to persuade Pakistan to do more to achieve even a cease-fire, let alone a political settlement , augurs continuing instability in Afghanistan .

Ghani can rely on neither China nor Pakistan to help bring peace to his country. What will Washington’s policy be, now that the war against the Taliban will go on?

About the author:
*Anita Inder Singh, a Swedish citizen, is Visiting Professor at the Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution in New Delhi. Her books include Democracy, Ethnic Diversity and Security in Post-Communist Europe (Praeger, USA, 2001) ; her Oxford doctoral thesis, The Origins of the Partition of India, 1936-1947 (Oxford University Press [OUP], several editions since 1987, published in a special omnibus comprising the four classic works on the Partition by OUP (2002, paperback: 2004) The Limits of British Influence: South Asia and the Anglo-American Relationship 1947-56 (Macmillan, London, and St Martin’s Press, New York, 1993), and The United States, South Asia and the Global Anti-Terrorist Coalition (2006).

Her articles have been published in The World Today, (many on nationalism, security and democracy were published in this magazine) International Affairs, (both Chatham House, London) the Times Literary Supplement, the Guardian, the Far Eastern Economic Review, and the Asian Wall Street Journal and the Nikkei Asian Review. She has been a Fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy in Washington DC and has taught international relations at Oxford and the LSE.

The post Will Pakistan Deliver More Instability To Afghanistan? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sri Lanka: Sirisena Says Twentieth Amendment Is A Responsibility To Be Fulfilled

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The adoption of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, which introduces a new electoral system to correct the erroneous current system is a responsibility to be fulfilled in this era, said Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena.

Any action to destroy it, reverse it or prevent will be considered as an act against the people, he added.

Sirisena was addressing the rally ‘Abolish Preferential System – Make 20A a Reality’ organized by Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) to educate people about the need of passing the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, held at Viharamahadevi Park today (June 8).

Sirisena also said passing of the 20th Amendment is a great service to the people. “Politicians should present their opinions on this to the public within next few days,” he said.

“If this current electoral system continues for few more years, the arena of politics will allow only businessmen who spend money and win elections and enter Parliament instead of educated persons with knowledge of politics who have true desire to fulfill the aspirations of the people”, the President further stated.

The House has been cast with a dark shadow as the preferential electoral system allows only the people with money to enter the Parliament, Sirisena said.

Sirisena also pointed out what people endorsed at the Presidential election on January 8 was the programme that promised not only abolishing of the Executive Presidency but also establishing a new electoral system.

Sirisena added that the fight against the Executive Presidency which lasted for 37 years ended with a substantial victory by passing of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution in the Parliament.

In order to fulfill the aspirations of the people it is essential to adopt not only the 19th Amendment, but also the 20th Amendment to change the electoral system, Sirisena emphasized.

The post Sri Lanka: Sirisena Says Twentieth Amendment Is A Responsibility To Be Fulfilled appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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