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US-Iran Nuclear Deal: Contemporary Developments And Future Prospects – OpEd

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While a US-Iran nuclear deal has not yet been finalized, a tentative framework, better known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), was signed on 2nd April 2015, in Lausanne, Switzerland. According to the agreed framework, Iran would limit its nuclear enrichment, cut the number of centrifuges to almost half and enforce the IAEA Additional Protocol in return for the lifting of international sanctions and economic rewards.

The dialogue between Iran and P5+1 (United States, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom and Germany) started in July 2006, with the aim of brokering a possible nuclear deal by offering Iran lucrative economic incentives in return for the permanent capping of its nuclear weapons program. The P5+1 held a number of talks with the Iranian authorities but could not attain a mutually agreed formula until November 2013, when both sides’ parties to the negotiations agreed on the “Joint Action of Plan” to achieve a long-term solution to the decade long conflict.

The main intention behind the nuclear deal is to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capability that could cause a proliferation cascade in the region. If Iran goes nuclear, it would create a security dilemma for the neighbouring states, thereby forcing them to either opt for the nuclear path themselves, or with the support of one of the declared nuclear powers in the international system.

Amid the US engagement in Afghanistan and the Middle East, it cannot afford additional conflict/war or potential confrontation with a state like Iran, that has considerable influence in the areas with vested US interests are increasingly threatened today. Beside this, the US wants Iran to play an important role in Afghanistan and cooperate with the US and its allies against the Taliban insurgency. US also seeks Iranian support in quelling the militant groups in Middle East which have to some extent Iranian support. Therefore, Iran’s integration into the international community and economy would bar it from supporting subversive elements in the region that directly or indirectly threatens the US.

US-Iran nuclear deal and contemporary developments

Under the agreed framework, Iran is supposed to reduce its Uranium enrichment Centrifuges to 2/3 from 19000 to 6104, and out of 6104, only 5060 would continue to enrich only 3.67 percent for the next 15 years. Under the agreed framework, Iran will only use its first generation IR-1 type centrifuges for the Uranium enrichment. Besides centrifuges limitation, Iran is also expected to reduce its current stockpile of 10000kg enriched uranium to 300kg. In the next fifteen years, Iran would reduce its enriched uranium stockpile, both in terms of quality and level of enrichment; from current 20 percent to 3.67 percent.

According to the agreed framework, Iran is supposed to convert its Fordow enrichment facility into a research centre and cease further enrichment process for the next 15 years. Similarly, Iran will redesign its Arak heavy water reactor and commit not to reprocess the spent fuel for making a platinum bomb. Uranium enrichment will be carried out in Natanz plant, after the removal of advanced IR-2s centrifuges, and their replacement with IR-1s 5060 centrifuges to the enrichment level of 3.67 percent for a period of ten years.

Iran will not use IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, and IR-8 type of centrifuges for enrichment. It is also required to freeze its centrifuges producing facilities; which will be monitored by IAEA experts. Additionally, all the removed centrifuges will be put under IAEA monitored storage and only IR-1 centrifuges would be used by Iran from the IAEA monitored stockpile, as a replacement for the 5060 IR-1 centrifuges.

The aim of the above mentioned limitation on the Iranian enrichment production is to extend the “breakout timeline”, i.e. a time period required by Iran to make a Uranium bomb, which is currently assumed to be 2 to 3 months. The current deal would delay the “breakout timeline” to almost a year. Under the deal, Iran will provide IAEA inspectors unrestrained access to its Uranium enrichment facilities, while actively adhering to the IAEA Additional Protocol.

If the IAEA experts verify all these commitments and steps by Iran, then the US and European Union will lift all the nuclear related sanctions; however the sanctions imposed on Iran on account of terrorism, human rights abuses etc. are likely to continue even after the deal. Under the deal, US can “snap back” all the sanctions if Iran violates the deal or is seen to be in noncompliance with its commitments.

Regional and international response to the US-Iran nuclear deal

The US-Iran framework agreement has met the most critical and strict responses from the Gulf Cooperation Council States (GCC). The GCC states are of the opinion that the nuclear deal will end Iran’s political and economic isolation internationally, and usher in an era of economic prosperity that would cause Iran to augments its current belligerent behaviour and intensify its involvement in the on-going proxy war in the Middles East. The GCC states are very critical of the recent Iranian support to Shiite Houthis in Yemen and blame Iran for instituting a new Hezbollah-styled Militia-cum-political force in the close propinquity of its immortal rival, i.e. Saudi Arabia as well as other GCC states.

Saudi Arabia has already demonstrated its intent to consider the ‘nuclear option’ a number of times since the fresh talks between US and Iranian nuclear delegates began. Similarly, other Gulf States have also been very critical of US deal with Iran. The US attempted to assuage the GCC states concerns in the Camp David summit but could not convince them comprehensively. GCC states demand either a similar deal or threaten going nuclear to lessen the preluding nuclear security dilemma in the region.

In the backdrop of the current on-going dialogues between US and Iranians, Saudi Arabia agreed to increase its cooperation with Turkey and Qatar for the support of Syrian rebels that had made a significant encroachment against the Assad forces in the Syrian capital city, Damascus. The US-Iran nuclear deal will further escalate such proxy wars as after the lifting of economic sanctions currently imposed on Iran, its economic and military support for Assad and Hezbollah is portended to increase.

The US-Iran deal will further strengthen the US relations with its long-time allies in the Middle East, especially with Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Similarly, the US uncompromising approach towards Iran will not effectuate the long desired and pragmatically calculated nuclear deal. US wants to strike a deal with Iran and at the same, palliate the concerns of its allies in the region through increased security and economic leverages. In the recent Camp David meeting between US and the GCC states, US has shown willingness to provide them with the Ballistic Missile Defence system that would make the threat of Iranian missiles less likely or almost
impotent.

Beside GCC states, Israel has been vehemently opposing any deal with Iran except for one that promises zero enrichment and a complete rollback of Iran’s nuclear program. The Israeli Prime Minister, while addressing the joint session of the Congress on March 3, 2015, reprimanded the Obama administration for softening its policy towards Iran’s nuclear program. Israel’s concerns stems from its decades’ long confrontation with Iran that has now metamorphosed into a dysthymia. The broad contours of the deal suggest that with the end of the proposed deal’s tenure, Iran would be in a better position to make nuclear weapons comparatively quickly and in no time. It is this better Iranian position that has become an anathema to Israel while inflating its siege mentality to an extreme.

US Congress, predominately controlled and directed by Israeli sympathizers, has also been very critical of the US-Iran nuclear deal. Any possible deal with Iran would have to pass through the Congress, which has already expressed its unwillingness to lift the congressionally imposed sanctions on Iran unless there is a complete rollback of the Iranian nuclear program and a zero enrichment clause in the deal. Congressmen claim that under the guise of the nuclear talks, Iran is buying more time to enrich enough fissile material that would enable it to make a nuclear bomb. Iran with a nuclear bomb would cause a nuclear proliferation cascade throughout the Middle East. However, US President Obama is strongly in favour of the deal.

US-Iran Nuclear Deal and the future prospects

US-Iran nuclear deal and the subsequent easing of economic sanctions would mark the start of a new era of economic prosperity for Iran; whose society has been deeply hit by the international sanctions. According to an estimate, almost 70% of the Iranian population lives under the poverty line. These grave economic and social indicators would soon wash away and the Iranian people will once again witness the economic and social prosperity that the deal promises.

Additionally, the nuclear deal and the ensuing economic fortunes would add more power to the elbow of Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, and will lead to the strengthening of the modernist forces against the conservative clergy in Iran. Currently, all power lies with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei; however with better economic opportunities and improved policies of Rouhani, the power of clergymen would automatically witness a decline.

Any possible US-Iran nuclear deal would lead both states to cooperate on their mutually diverging interest areas like Afghanistan, Syria and Palestine. With the increasingly decline in US military presence in Afghanistan, US wants Iran to play an assertive role against Taliban insurgency and fill the gap that would be left vacant after US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Besides this, United States and Iran may cooperate in quelling the militant groups in Middle East, particularly Islamic State that has occupied vast swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria.

The removal of the sanctions will give Iran a chance to integrate its economy with international community, speed up trade and acquire the latest technology for the extraction of natural resources that forms more than 80% of the Iranian Gross Domestic Products (GDP). The abolition of the sanctions will also give Iran a chance to funnel its gas resources to other states via Central Asian states to Eurasian and European states or via Pakistan to India and China.

However, the most unfortunate aspect of the US-Iran deal will be the further intensification of Shiite-Sunni schisms and a potential trigger of a new wave of Sunni-Shiite sectarian conflagration throughout Middle East, Central and South Asia. The economically strong Iran would be in a better position to play a more vibrant role in the regional context. Both religo-political powers in the Middle East — Saudi Arabia and Iran — would flex their muscles to shift the balance of power to their sides.

Many analysts believe that with the end of US-Iran nuclear deal tenure, Iran will be industrially well-developed and economically strong enough to be reckoned as a regional power. By then, Iran would be in a position to develop nuclear bomb quickly because of the already developed infrastructure and technical know-how. Historically, the states that are assisted by outside powers in nuclear domain, later find it easy to build a nuclear device comparatively quicker than those states that rely solemnly on their own resources to develop one.

Conclusion

US-Iran nuclear deal is a positive development that promises to end decades’ long confrontation between US and Iran. The deal presages a new era of economic opportunities for the people of Iran and the potential rise of Iran as an energy hub of both gas and oil resources for countries of Europe and Asia. However, deal does have the negatives that can tear the Middle East or the whole Muslim world apart.

The deal ensures an economically booming Iran with extensive political influence in the region through its proxy groups. The region is already facing an unending sectarian strife which can be further escalated to an unprecedented level by these two regional power — Saudi Arabia and Iran — who are the main drivers of sectarian feuds in the Muslim world.

Unless there are political restrains in the US-Iran nuclear deal on the Iranian revisionary behaviour, the political milieu in Middle East will continue to be unstable and fragile. Any potential deal between US-Iran must ensure that Iran will shun its support for proxy groups in the region and continue its compliance of the IAEA safeguards and protocols. Only then, the region can saved from the scourge of a sectarian conflagration.

*Abdul Ghafoor, M.Phil. International Relations, School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-azam University, Islamabad, Twitter: @ghafoorbazai

The post US-Iran Nuclear Deal: Contemporary Developments And Future Prospects – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Morocco’s Recent Diplomatic Anger With Iran: Spat Or Split? – OpEd

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Morocco and Iran have always had rocky ties since the Iranian revolution in 1979. In fact, The two countries normalized relations only in the late 1990s. In 2009, Rabat severed its diplomatic relations with Tehran due to an “unacceptable attitude” on Iran’s part against Morocco and its interference in the religious affairs of the country. At that time, the Moroccan foreign ministry accused Shia-majority Iran of trying to change the core foundations of the Moroccan identity and undermine the Sunni Maliki school adopted by the kingdom.

After five years of diplomatic estrangement, Morocco and Iran decided to restore their diplomatic relations and a new Iranian Ambassador was named to the North African Kingdom.

Last week, however, the Iranian media agency Fars issued a report accusing the Kingdom of Morocco of executing an “Israeli agenda”. The report was entitled “Morocco prisoner to Zionist policies”.

Immediately the Moroccan government issued a statement denouncing strongly that report and the spokesman for the Moroccan government, Mustapha El Khalfi, stated that “Rabat strongly rejects any abuse directed at the Kingdom, regardless of its source,” stressing that “regardless of the intentions and pretexts for the abuses directed at the country, they are rejected and unacceptable and must be condemned.”

El Khalfi also added that, “Morocco is a sovereign, free, independent country that exercises its policies and sovereignty in accordance with the constitution that frames the state and is not subject to the dictations of any other party.” He noted that “just as Morocco does not interfere in the internal affairs of any country, it firmly refuses to allow any other party to interfere in its affairs.”

The report was published by Fars, the media agency of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, one day after King Mohammed VI of Morocco hosted several foreign ambassadors appointed to Morocco including the new Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Taqi Moayyed, marking the thawing of relations between the two countries that’s have been rocky since 2009.

After the five-year diplomatic estrangement between Rabat and Tehran, the Moroccan monarch addressed a congratulatory message to the Iranian President Hassan Rohani, first time the Moroccan monarch has communicated with an Iranian president .

In fact, the communication between the two leaders came in a congratulatory message sent by Mohammed VI to Rohani on the occasion of Iran’s National Day, according to the official Moroccan news agency MAP.

In his message, the Moroccan monarch said: “I take this opportunity to express to you my sure commitment to work with you in order to give new impetus to the relations that bring our two countries together in various areas of common interest, which will serve our peoples’ interests, contribute in supporting the joint Islamic work, and consolidate solidarity among all the Islamic nation.”

King Mohammed VI expressed his warmest congratulations to president Rohani and wished him continued health and happiness. He also wished the Iranian people more progress and prosperity.

Now we have to wait and see how the Iranian government would react to the Moroccan official protest over the publication of that report and would it act quickly and wisely to contain this diplomatic incident and therefore shows its good intentions towards the North African kingdom. .Although previous bilateral dissonance has been repaired, the latest incident is unusually petulant and public, so Teheran should dispatch a team of high-level officials to the kingdom for a full discussion.

Indeed, given the range of issues that a Morocco policy shift could affect, it is important that Teheran act promptly to dispel Morocco’s recent anger.

The post Morocco’s Recent Diplomatic Anger With Iran: Spat Or Split? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

IMF Confirms Greece Fails To Make Payment

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Gerry Rice, Director of Communications at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said late Tuesday that he can “confirm that the SDR 1.2 billion repayment (about EUR 1.5 billion) due by Greece to the IMF today has not been received.”

In a statement, Rice said that,”We have informed our Executive Board that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive IMF financing once the arrears are cleared.”

“I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece’s repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF’s Executive Board in due course,” Rice said in the statement.

The post IMF Confirms Greece Fails To Make Payment appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Ramadan: God’s Diet Is Divine – OpEd

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God has a diet that is good for us physically and spiritually. That diet is found in the Torah and in the Qur’an. Over many centuries the various legal schools have developed God’s diet somewhat differently within each religion and between the religions, but the basic principle has always been retained: “Humans should not live by bread alone, but by every word that comes from the mouth of the Lord” (Deuteronomy 8:3 and Matthew 4:4).

All animals must eat to live. This is a law of nature. Most animals only eat plants or other animals. Only a minority of living creatures are omnivores. And of all omnivores only one animal voluntarily restricts its diet because of a commitment to follow God’s Divine Diet: human beings.

I am a Reform Rabbi who is a Muslim Jew. Actually I am a Muslim Jew i.e. a faithful Jew submitting to the will of God, because I am a Reform Rabbi. As a Rabbi I am faithful to the covenant that God made with Abraham – the first Muslim Jew, and I submit to the commandments of the covenant that God made with the people of Israel at Mount Sinai. As a Reform Rabbi I believe that Jewish spiritual leaders should modify Jewish law and tradition as social and historical circumstances change and develop.

I also believe we should not make religion difficult for people to practice by adding an increasing number of restrictions to the commandments we received at Mount Sinai. During the six centuries between the birth of Jesus and the arrival of Muhammad in Yathrib (Medina), almost all Jews became Orthodox Jews. Orthodox Rabbis added many extra prohibitions to Jewish law and most Jews became increasingly strict in the observance of the laws of Kashrut (dietary laws).

Orthodox Rabbis did not follow the principle of Muhammad as narrated by his wife ‘Aisha: “Whenever Allah’s Apostle was given the choice of one of two matters, he would choose the easier of the two, as long as it was not sinful to do so, but if it was sinful to do so, he would not approach it.” ‘Aisha also said: “Whenever Allah’s Apostle ordered the Muslims to do something, he used to order them to do deeds which were easy for them to do”. These are lessons Prophet Muhammad taught 12 centuries before the rise of Reform Judaism in the early 19th century.

Although most Jews today are no longer Orthodox Jews, if the Jews of Muhammad’s time, had followed these teachings of Prophet Muhammad, Reform Judaism would have started 1,400 years ago. (In the U.K. Reform Jews are called Liberal Jews. Reform Jews in the U.K. are what we in North America call Conservative Jews.)

Like all diets, a Kosher Holy Diet must be followed daily, to be effective. Like all diets, you should not become a fanatic in following this diet. Moral issues are more important than any one particular part of the diet. Nevertheless, like all diets, and all forms of exercise and meditation, the more frequently you fail to keep your Kosher Holy Diet, the less you will benefit from it.

Food and drink are the most important single element of animal life. But unlike all other animals humans do not live by bread alone. The act of eating is invested with psychological and spiritual meanings. The Torah asserts that we should “EAT! BECOME SATIATED/SATISFIED! AND BLESS THE LORD!” (Deuteronomy 8:10) This is how I, as a Reform Rabbi interpret these words.

EAT! Humans, like all animals need to eat in order to live, but unlike all other animals some humans will not eat certain foods that other humans will gladly eat. This universal human trait proves that “humans do not live by bread alone, but humans may live on anything that God decrees.” (Deut. 8:3) Thus by periodically not eating at all (fasting) Jews, Muslims and Christians live by God’s words.

But some people reject the enjoyment of eating and add extra days of fasting to their diet. Other people carry vegetarianism to far and stop eating all egg and milk products. The Torah commands a moderate path between on one hand simply killing and eating any thing you want, and excessive fasting and/or rejecting broad categorizes of food such as vegetarians and vegans do.

BECOME SATIATED/SATISFIED! If we only eat foods that we enjoy, we end up with a physically unhealthy diet. Obesity accounted for over 30,000 deaths in the year 2,010 and it gets worse each year. Our natural tastes do not lead us to good health. Maximizing enjoyment in the short run leads to disaster in the long run. Self-discipline leads to longer life. Religious self-discipline leads to a higher spiritual life. If you eat your fill you will become satiated. If you eat according to God’s decrees you will become satisfied.

BLESS: The Sages rule that we should say a blessing even if we eat only a small piece of bread the size of an olive. If that is all you have, be grateful you have that. One person can be satiated and not be satisfied, while another can be satisfied yet not satiated. “Who is wealthy? Those who are satisfied with what they have.” (Avot) The blessing after the meal is a commandment / Mitsvah from the Torah.

The Sages also ruled that we should say a blessing-the Motzi, before we eat. The Motzi ends “who brings forth bread from the earth.” This phrase from Psalm 104:14 is preceded by “who makes the grass spring up for cattle” to reminded us every time we eat that we are part of the animal world and need to be considerate of their needs too. Thus it is a Mitsvah not to eat until one’s animals have been fed. (Deut. 11:15)

THE LORD: We should also thank the cook, the baker, the miller, the farmer and everyone else involved in producing our food. But the four fundamental elements for producing food are sun, rain, earth and seed-none of which we create. Usually we are so caught up in using the end products that we forget our dependence on the fundamentals. That is why we so blithely harm our environment. The Motzi helps us remember what life is really based on, and why we should be both grateful and reverent to God. Those who live by all these Mitsvot are regarded as if they dine with the Lord as it says, “This is the table, which is before God.” (Ezekiel 41:22)

The Torah also tells us,“DO NOT COOK A KID (A YOUNG GOAT) IN IT’S MOTHERS MILK” (Exodus 23:19, Exodus 34:26, and Deuteronomy 14:21) Orthodox Rabbis ask why this verse is repeated three times in the Torah? The Sages of the Talmud say: Once to teach us that we should not cook meat and milk together. A second time to teach us that we should not eat meat and milk products together. A third time to teach us we should not derive any benefit from this mixture even if it was done inadvertently. All Reform Rabbis would agree with the first gloss, many would agree with the second gloss, and few, if any, Reform Rabbis would agree with the third interpretation.

We mustn’t cook a kid in its mother’s milk because that is cruel and insensitive. We could universalize this sensitivity by cooking all mammals, which must be killed, separately from all milk products, which give life to their young. We could go even further and not eat the products of slaughter and the products of nurture at the same meal. We might even go further yet and use different plates, and eating utensils and dishwashers. This could become extreme.

The prohibition against mixing meat and milk products together has expanded further and is applied in a stricter way than any other dietary law in the Torah. There are some individuals who even abstain from food that the Torah permits. Rashi says that when we are with these people we should follow their practice, for by abstaining from that which is actually permitted, we can attain a higher level of holiness.

But doesn’t this line of thinking violate the Mitsvah (repeated twice in Deuteronomy) that you should not add to the Mitsvot? (4:2 and 13:1) Yes it does! By continually expanding the strictness of mixing meat and milk products you end up with separate dishwashers for meat and dairy dishes. The Orthodox say the prohibition against adding to the Mitsvot applies to literal adding (2 days of Yom Kippur or 9 days of Hanukkah) and not to extending the application.

Yet they add another hour to Shabbat making it last 25 hours, and celebrate Rosh HaShanah for 2 days even in the Land of Israel. The orthodox also added poultry to the prohibition of mixing meat and dairy although poultry do not produce milk. Fortunately the Orthodox did not add fish to the forbidden meat/dairy mixture.

One way to understand the correct philosophy of the Kosher Holy Diet can be found in the following words from Rabbi Bradley Artson, Dean of the American Jewish University. He writes: “Without attempting to explain the elaborate Jewish dietary laws, the Torah provides a lengthy list of kosher and non-kosher animals. Animals with cloven hooves that chew their cud are kosher. Fish with fins and scales are kosher. Birds which eat grain and vegetables, and which can fly, are kosher. Insects, shellfish and reptiles are not.

Since the earliest stages of our history, Jews have understood the patterns of ‘kashrut’ to be a center of our heritage. From biblical days to the rabbinical period, new guidelines and restrictions developed resulting from the yearning of Jews to be even more kosher yet the core of ‘kashrut’ has remained unchanged over the millennia. Some of our most stirring stories of Jewish martyrdom center on the laws of ‘kashrut.’

Yet, the Torah gives no explanation for ‘kashrut.’ So Jews throughout history have struggled to understand the reasons underlying kosher eating. One explanation, popularized by the Rambam (12th Century Spain and Egypt), is that God is a cosmic doctor, providing a prescription to ensure the health of the Jewish People. This view understands ‘kashrut’ as a medical plan to ensure the health of pious Jews. Thus, people interested in abandoning the dietary laws say that ‘kashrut’ was simply an early compensation for unsanitary conditions. Now, with modern technology, we don’t need these outmoded precautions.

Another view is that kashrut was a way of differentiating the Jewish minority, to keep them separate from the Gentiles, thus promoting Jewish survival. This is partly correct, especially in a Christian society, but this view ignores the fact that most of the world’s majority religions observe some form of dietary laws (Islam, Buddhism and Hinduism).

Why, then, is ‘kashrut’ significant? If its not health or social separateness, what is the goal of the dietary laws? The answer is found in the Torah itself. “You shall sanctify yourselves and be holy, for I [the Lord] am holy.” (Leviticus 19) ‘Kashrut’ is a way of welcoming the holiness of Judaism into our daily lives. At each meal, we discipline our natural desire for self-gratification and rededicate ourselves to the high standards of Jewish living and behavior.

The network of Jewish values — loving our neighbor, caring for the widow and orphan, affirming a connection to the Jewish people, and embodying God’s rule on earth — gain strength and depth through the regular practice of ‘kashrut.’ Every form of effective pedagogy involves regular repetition and frequent exposure. Since we eat three times each day (at least!), ‘kashrut’ is a daily school recalling and reinforcing a sense of living in ‘brit’ (covenant) with God, making the values of Judaism visible through deeds.”

I would add that the dietary rules in each religion serve as spiritual exercises to strengthen a person\’s religious soul. Even if you do not do them all, doing many of them will help make you a more spiritual person. If you do follow your own religion’s diet (including fasting) with the intention of submitting your will to God’s will, it will help you become a better Muslim; and if you are Jewish, your diet helps you fulfill your part of Israel\’s covenant with God.

The post Ramadan: God’s Diet Is Divine – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Tsipras Says Greece Could Seal Deal With Creditors After Sunday Referendum

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As EU officials have agreed to pause the Greek debt talks, PM Alexis Tsipras underlined his commitment to the referendum saying that any statements about expelling Greece from the Eurozone should Sunday’s referendum result in a “No” vote are a bluff.

The group of Eurozone finance ministers has agreed that the debt talks will be paused until after Greece holds a popular referendum on whether or not Athens should agree to the international creditors’ conditions.

“There will be no further talks in the coming days, nor at Eurogroup level, nor between the Greek authorities and the institutions on proposals or financial arrangements. We will simply wait now the outcome of the referendum on Sunday and take into account the outcome of the referendum,” Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the president of the group, Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Wednesday.

A defiant Tsipras addressed his fellow Greeks in a live televised speech on Wednesday. He said that his country needs new reforms, different from the ones international lenders are insisting on.

“The reforms that the country really needs are different from those that we were being pressed into for so many years, and that led practically to a humanitarian catastrophe,” Tsipras said. “We need reforms that will give us hope and security.”

The Greek government has called a snap referendum on Sunday, asking people the question whether they think Athens should agree to the new conditions the international lenders have set.

“A ‘No’ answer in the referendum would be an important step to getting a better deal – it does not mean a break-up with Europe,” Tsipras said. “I fully understand the difficulties, and I will do everything in my power so that they are temporary.”

“Those who say the government has a plan to exit Europe are lying,” he added.

“The referendum has nothing to do with Greece staying in the Eurozone, no one can doubt that,” Tsipras said, adding that any threats to expel Greece from the currency union are a bluff.

Should Greece receive a positive answer from the lenders to the suggestions it made about a new deal, the Greek government will “react immediately,” the prime minister said.

Tsipras said his government was facing the consequences of a fight for decent welfare: “The predominance of extreme views in Europe has led to the closure of Greek banks, to scare the average Greek citizen. To protect the right of our pensioners for a decent pension, we have been fighting for five months, and now, we are facing retribution for it.”

In the wrap-up of his address, Tsipras assured Greeks that the current hardships will not last forever. “The salaries will not be lost, the deposits of those who have chosen to keep their capital in the country will not disappear,” he said.

Speaking in the German parliament on Wednesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel said that her thoughts were with the Greek people, as they are in a desperate state at the moment.

Merkel, the strongest supporter of the austerity policy in the EU, assured that the “door for negotiation with the Greek government was always open and it remains open.”

She said that Europe Union is not at stake as long as it does not “forget who we are and what makes us strong: a union based on the rule of law and responsibility.” She also attacked the current Greek government, blaming it for the crisis.

Echoing her statement, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a speech in the lower house of parliament that the Syriza government “has done nothing since it came into office.”

“You can’t in all honesty expect us to talk with them in a situation like this,” he added.

German MP of The Left Party, Gregor Gysi, slammed Merkel saying that the Chancellor has been trying to silence the critics of the austerity policy.

“The austerity backed by Germany and the Troika has failed. Soup kitchens and more soup kitchens… Greece is not the only one to have broken the EU’s budget rules, why is it being vilified. You want to remove the leftist government in Greece, that’s what it is about,” he said.

Mark Weisbrot of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Economic and Policy Research, told RT that the EU authorities have been trying to intimidate Greece, however their message failed the cause.

“It seems that what the EU authorities were doing to shut down the banking system was trying to intimidate the people into voting ‘Yes’ and excepting the deal and going against the government,” he said.

He believes that the EU creditors have been “bluffing all along” in terms of pushing Athens out of the Eurozone in the near future.

The post Tsipras Says Greece Could Seal Deal With Creditors After Sunday Referendum appeared first on Eurasia Review.

China’s WU-14 Nuclear Device: Impact On Deterrence Equation – Analysis

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By Arka Biswas*

China’s Defense Ministry recently confirmed the successful test of its hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), called WU-14 by the Pentagon, on June 07, 2015. The vehicle was tested atop a ballistic missile and has reportedly been successful in demonstrating its manoeuvring capability. This was the fourth test of WU-14 in the last 18 months, with previous tests being conducted on January 09, August 07, and December 02, 2014.

What’s new?

As noted in a US congressional research service (CRS) report released right after WU-14’s first flight test, “the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) test appears to mark a step beyond China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) program, featuring a slower, shorter-range manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle (RV)—and may point to a second-generation ASBM.”

However, over the course of four tests, China has managed to not only increase the range of the vehicle, but also increase its speed. Unlike previous tests, the recent test showcased, what has been labelled by intelligence officials as, WU-14’s extreme manoeuvres. With a speed of about 10 mach (around 7680 miles per hours) and the ability to carry out aerodynamic manoeuvres, the vehicle can avoid missile defence interceptors, which usually rely upon a device’s predictable ballistic trajectory tracked through satellite sensors and radars. The vehicle’s ability to travel long distance increases the range which China can now target. The vehicle also distances the vulnerable mid-course phase of the missile’s flight from the target and its defences.

Implications for the US

China has been already developing ASBM, known as DF-21D, which is a battlefield-range ballistic missile designed to target moving ships. DF-12D, a solid propellant missile, has better accuracy, reportedly has a range of 2000 km and can carry nuclear warhead big enough to inflict significant damage to large naval vessels. As Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan notes, DF-21D gives China the “capability to defeat US carrier strike groups operating in the region, making it a “no-go-zone” for the US and other advanced navies. Observers in the US are particularly concerned as the “U.S. Navy has not previously faced a threat from highly accurate ballistic missiles capable of hitting moving ships at sea.” They are thus calling DF-21D a “game-changing” weapon. A manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle (MaRV), like WU-14, atop DF-21D will make it further difficult for any missile defence systems to intercept.

The CRS report had noted after the first test that it will take China some years before it could bring WU-14 into service for offensive application. However, the frequency with which China has conducted WU-14’s tests, it appears that China will soon be able to deploy the vehicles atop DF-21D for use. Rick Fisher from the International Assessment and Strategy Center notes China’s urgency in deploying WU-14, stating that “with four tests in about a year and a half, it is possible that China would conclude development of an early version for deployment in one to two years.”

DF-21D mounted with a WU-14 vehicle shifts the deterrence equation between the US and China in latter’s favour. This has been captured by growing concerns in the US accompanied by calls to counter-balance China’s WU-14. The US has been looking to deploy Zumwalt DDG 1000 destroyer as a response to China’s DF-21D. Admiral Lyons has argued that, with its power, cooling, space and weight margin, Zumwalt DDG 1000 destroyer can operate in stealth and is therefore the best choice for the US against China’s DF-21D. However, given budgetary constraints, the US had decided to only build three such destroyers and without ballistic missile defence capability.

But the successful tests of WU-14, has brought the emphasis back on deploying effective ballistic missile defences. For instance, there has been a call to accelerate the development of rail gun weapon. Rail gun fires pellets at hypersonic speeds forming a cloud of them that can destroy WU-14. Similarly, there is a call to also speed up the development of field directed energy weapon systems. The US has been in the process of developing these weapons systems for a long time. But, as has been noted in a report submitted to the US Under-Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics in 2007, multiple factors, such as “unexpected technological challenges” or “the lack of understanding of the costs and benefits of such system” have resulted in the lack of a substantial progress in that front. Another way for the US to restore balance in its deterrence equation with China is to develop its own hypersonic glide vehicles.

The test of WU-14 by China is definitely going to speed up the US’ quest for enhancing both its offensive and defensive technological capabilities. Yet, given the on-going defence budget squeeze, Washington will have to be careful in identifying the right technologies which it could invest in. The US will simultaneously have to factor in time, given the speed with which China is moving towards operationalising WU-14 vehicle atop DF-21D. This factor of time will, however, simultaneously depend on the role that China assigns to this new generation ASBM (DF-21D with WU-14 device) in its broad nuclear doctrine.

Takeaway for India

China’s WU-14 also increases the threat to India. It is, however, important to note here that India’s missile defence programme is at its nascent stage. Thus, WU-14’s ability to demonstrate extreme manoeuvre does not make much difference against India, considering that Indian ballistic missile defences are still to prove its efficiency against non-manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles.

But the frequently conducted flight tests of WU-14 by China feed into the larger strategy adopted by Beijing of the rapid modernisation of its nuclear forces. Traditionally, China has projected itself as a restrained nuclear power with a policy of no-first-use and a moderate qualitative and quantitative expansion of its nuclear capabilities. However, over the last few years, Beijing has pursued nuclear modernisation with much vigour, especially on the qualitative front. Development of advanced technologies pertaining to delivery vehicles and nuclear devices has simultaneously been accompanied by certain doctrinal shifts, for instance the omission of no-first-use from China’s defence white paper. Although these nuclear developments in China are primarily US-centric, it is inevitably going to motivate India to pursue the modernisation of its own nuclear forces, along with the development of its missile defence systems.

*The writer is a Junior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)

Courtesy: www.indrastra.com

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Arunachal Pradesh: The Final Frontier? – Analysis

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The Modi government’s integrationist policies, designed to bolster national security and development, may further imperil the already fraying indigenous identities of Arunachal Pradesh.

By Abhimanyu Chandra*

He abjures footwear. He does not wear t-shirts. Both bits of information were borne out when we met him – Mr Tam Atum was indeed barefoot and t-shirt-less. Firewood bundled on his back, he stood bent over the wooden stick in his left hand. He wore an orange-green blanket, and a brown gunny shawl over it. A gunny dhoti enveloped him below his waist, coming down to his knees. Mr Atum’s accouterments reflected further, more classic elements emblematic of the Nyishi tribe, one of 20 tribes in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. These included a pudum, a headdress with a skewer horizontally affixed to it; two oyos, knives not sharp, but heavy and forbidding; and a long, wooden smoking-pipe.

Indigenous identities of Arunachal Pradesh are witnessing an unprecedented, multi-pronged loss. In the eyes of residents of Sagalee, a small town surrounded by the low hills of the Eastern Himalayas, Mr Atum has stood his ground, retaining the old Nyishi way – holding onto the headdress, the rural self-sustenance, the tribal language, the intimate affiliation with nature. They see him as the Unchangeable, an embodiment of the ‘Pure Nyishi’. And so they take solace when they see him on their roads or in their markets every few weeks. They themselves, like others across the state, have ceded ground: drenched to one degree or another by the hurricanes of consumerism and globalization – be it in the form of Levi jeans, or Renault SUVs, or the Korean hairstyles popular in the state, or jobs in private legal practice.

And so they idolize him.

But as often happens with idolizing, the idolizing of Mr Atum has more to do with the idolizers than the idolized. The image accorded him has less to do with his identity, and more with his fellow Nyishis’ desire to believe in the continued existence of the classic Nyishi man. According to policymakers, journalists and scholars, such anxiety – such nervousness about fraying indigenous identities – is rife across Arunachal Pradesh, and for good reason. The Narendra Modi government’s policies, albeit unintentionally, are exacerbating it.

Indigenous identity at risk prior the Modi government

The anxiety comes from a collective leapfrog Arunachal has made, especially over the last two decades. As Tongam Rina, the state’s most renowned reporter, put it, “Today we don’t speak our languages or sing our songs or even eat the traditional food.”

Traditional religious affiliations have been upended. According to officials of Khemling, a village three kilometers from Sagalee, until three decades ago every resident of the village was Donyi-Polo: an adherent of Donyi-Poloism, the shamanic-animistic faith local to Arunachal Pradesh, entailing sun and moon worship. Today an estimated 99 percent of Khemling is Christian. As for the state as a whole: In 1971, 0.79 percent of Arunachal was Christian. In 1991, this percentage rose to 10.29, reaching 18.72 in 2001. (Data on Arunachalees’ religious affiliation from the 2011 census is as yet unavailable.) Hinduism has made similar inroads.

Preferred languages are changing. In all possibility Milang, a dialect of the Adi language, is the state’s most tenuously situated tongue. According to Moyir Riba – Assistant Director of the Center for Cultural Research and Documentation (CCRD), situated in Naharlagun, a town adjacent to the state capital, Itanagar – only a few hundred people today can fluently speak the language. Hindi and English are becoming more popular to the exclusion of the state’s many tribal languages, especially among the youth.

Occupations, too, have undergone transformation. According to Lisa Lomdak, assistant professor in the Arunachal Institute of Tribal Studies, until a few decades ago nearly everyone in the state worked in agriculture. It is of little surprise then that the septuagenarian head of Khemling village is a farmer. He spends a large part of his day in the forest, rearing the local bull, the Mithun. However only the two youngest of his 12 children, both less than fifteen, live in Khemling. A third live in the nearby town Sagalee. The other nine inhabit the relative bustle of Itanagar, Naharlagun and Doimukh. Some are teachers, or bureaucrats, and the others are in college and look to become teachers or bureaucrats – with little interest in farming. With more and more Arunachalis moving to the state’s urban centers – urban population in Arunachal rose by 22.94% from 2001 to 2011 – more are picking up urban jobs: typically with the government, but also in the burgeoning private sector.

Mr. Atum, the Unchangeable?

Minutes into our conversation, Mr. Atum took out leaves and a stone from a bag. Murmurs sizzled: He is about to show how he lights a fire. (Mr Atum, apparently, is accustomed to being stopped and spoken with, and knows how to interest his audience.) He rubbed the stone against the leaves. Surely he couldn’t get a fire going, just like that, on some dirt and leaves in his hands, right there on a dusty road. He kept going: little sparks but no flame.

“Aaah”, everyone lit up. A flame had appeared.

Mr. Atum proceeded on his way and we bid him goodbye. “He represents the old identity”, someone said.

Even though Mr. Atum does, in various ways, represent the “old identity”, he is by no means the Unchangeable Nyishi he is made out to be. We learnt he abandoned Donyi-Poloism (and shaminism-aminism more broadly) ten years ago, embracing Christianity instead. Additionally, during our conversation, he demanded money from my translator as a condition for continued conversation. This, surely, wasn’t an expression of the pure, traditional Nyishi way.

Arunachalees’ concern

Two key reasons are behind Arunachal’s fraying indigenous identities. Chief is the central government’s increased budgetary allocations towards the state over time, especially over the last two decades. The state is resource-poor, with a small tax base, and so is almost entirely dependent on central funding. With more money coming in from New Delhi – within the context of Arunachal’s designation as a state in 1987 (it was a Union Territory before) and therefore greater national and international recognition, and India’s systemic economic liberalization of 1991 – the state economy has slowly strengthened and become more connected with national and international market forces.

Globalization in turn has played its role. There is greater penetration of the Internet and television. External businesses have identified the state as a young, untapped market. Everything from Adidas to Puma, Ford to Nissan, Baskin Robbins to Café Coffee Day has come in. Locals, too, including the many who were never involved in business before have set up shop. As Mamang Dai, the state’s foremost literary figure as well as a bureaucrat, encapsulated, “A few years ago I never thought I would see a florist set up in Arunachal Pradesh even though everyone talked about the beauty of our orchids. Obviously there must be a demand for it just as there must be for bakeries, frozen foods, and luxury cars that ply our roads today”.

A second reason behind Arunachal’s fraying indigenous identities, specific to the changing religious identities, is the activity of Christian missionaries and Hindutva groups over the last several decades.

Indigenous identities have been fraying in many places for many of these same reasons for a long time. Yet, it would be incorrect to suggest that the changes in Arunachal are unremarkable and that they do not particularly matter. They are not, and they do matter. This is because Arunachal occupies a unique cultural position; it is quite possibly the final frontier in India, and among the last few in the world that still, to a great degree, is rooted to its indigenous culture. At a time when the world’s cultural riches are under all sorts of attacks (environmental in the Amazon, terrorist in the Middle East), Arunachal’s position cannot be taken lightly. Bolstering the significance of the state’s indigenous culture are its real treasures: The state is the country’s linguistically most diverse; it is home, also, to unique, ancient faith systems, as well as an interminable variety of other riches. It is worth asking whether it is desirable – in the face, admittedly, of other imperatives – for these languages to be lost, for these ancient systems to be co-opted.

The onus for preserving their culture rests, it would seem, not insignificantly with Aruanchalis themselves. After all no one is forcing any Arunachali to jettison his language or to abandon farming. (Though it should be emphasized that overactive, even coercive conversion is partly behind the changes in religious identities.)

Yet according to a chorus of voices, government policy has long played – and will continue to play – a significant role in shaping Arunachalis’ identity. It was because of government policy that since the time of India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, Arunachal (known until 1972 as the North East Frontier Agency) has had something of a protected status. A key provision of this status was the continuation of a British-era measure: All non-Arunachalis (Indian and international) entering the state would require carrying an ‘Inner Line Permit’ (ILP). The permit would allow entry for a restricted time period. And it forbade non-Arunachalis from buying land in the state. The ILP system continues to date. In addition to Arunachal, it is prevalent in the states of Mizoram, most of Nagaland, and parts of Himachal Pradesh.

As explained by Nehru’s adviser Verrier Elwin, author of many classic books on Arunachal Pradesh, the rationale behind furnishing some distance between the rest of the country and Arunachal was that the state’s population was sparse, and consisted of tribal groups with non-industrial cultures. As a result, the state’s overall culture might be vulnerable before unchecked outside forces: many of which, quite possibly (as could reasonably have been speculated from the ill fate of many tribal groups across the world), might be insensitive to and coercive towards tribal culture. Arunachal, the thinking went, would benefit from some space, at least for some period of time. (Similar arguments were behind the institution of the ILP in Mizoram and Nagaland. In Himachal Pradesh, the ILP is the result of the state’s sensitive border with Tibet, and applies only to international entrants.)

New Delhi’s policy towards Arunachal was “Elwinian” for many decades. It underwent amendment with Arunachal gaining statehood in 1987, and was affected by the nation-wide economic liberalisation of 1991. New Delhi’s policy really started to change, however, as the editor-in-chief of The Arunachal Times, Taba Ajum, argued, around the reign of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Vajpayee served as prime minister briefly in 1996, and between 1998 and 2004. His years saw for instance the creation of a separate central government ministry for the Northeast region, which has integrated and streamlined government initiatives towards the region.

A look at New Delhi’s budgetary allocations towards the state before and during the Vajpayee era is revealing. According to a Government of Arunachal Pradesh document, the central government approved a paltry INR 4.21 crore for Arunachal during its first five year plan (1951-1956). Funding kept increasing over the decades. A major ascent occurred in the nineties. For the 1993-1994 fiscal year, New Delhi allocated INR 293.5 crores. Within five years, in the 1998-1999 fiscal year, this figure doubled to INR 625 crores. By the end of 2004 the annual allocation was upward of INR 700 crores.

Since coming to power in May 2014, Prime Minister Modi’s administration has been taking the pro-activeness towards Arunachal a step further. Allocation for 2015-2016 is INR 10,200 crores. (And, no doubt, Mr Modi’s pro-activeness is building on that of his predecessor, Mr Manmohan Singh, who served as prime minister during the ten years between Vajpayee and Modi.) The Modi policy seeks to integrate Arunachal (and the Northeast more broadly) as closely as possible with the rest of the country.

The impetus for the Modi approach is twofold. Arunachal shares a 1,126 kilometer border with China. China has declared the state “disputed territory”, referring to it as “South Tibet”, whereas New Delhi considers it an undeniable part of India. Making matters more urgent for India (beyond the fact that its massive neighbor, to which it lost a war in 1962, partly in Arunachal Pradesh, considers the state disputed territory) is China’s superior infrastructure on its side of the border. Arunachalis often point out the robust highway systems on the Chinese side as evident on Google Earth. On the Indian side are, well, mountains, barren land, disheveled roads. In the event that Indian troops need to be deployed into Arunachal, the status quo, the Modi government’s thinking seems to be, would be untenable for India: It would pose a serious threat to national security. It is in significant part because of this concern that the Modi government has been developing more and better roads in the state, more airports (the number of civilian airports at present is zero; the target is to have one operational by January 2016, and plans are under way for five more) and more trains within and into Arunachal. Mr Modi inaugurated three trains – where, before, not one was operational – during his 20 February visit to the state. Not surprisingly, China vociferously protested against the visit.

The second key reason behind the Modi approach is domestic. Scholars, journalists and policymakers agree that New Delhi has long been distant towards the Northeast – whether for intentional, noble reasons (à la Elwin), or because of indifference towards an isolated, poor, and scarcely populated region. Only the Siliguri Corridor – known also as ‘Chicken’s Neck’, which, at its narrowest, is just 23 kilometers wide – physically connects the 2,60,000 square kilometers of the Northeast with the 30,30,000 square kilometers of the rest of India. To the north of the Corridor is Nepal and to the south Bangladesh. Arunachal’s former chief minister for almost 23 years, Mr Gegong Apang, recalled the isolation, noting over a conversation with me his first hand experience of an inaccessible New Delhi. It is in response to this history that Prime Minister Modi – at least inasmuch as can be gauged from his speeches as well as his policies – has made facilitating vigorous development in, and engagement with the Northeast’s eight states, of which Arunachal is the largest by area, a key objective of his government. It has launched a mechanism whereby union ministers (there are 65 in total) must visit their counterparts in the region at least eight per fortnight.

Building stronger infrastructure and deepening engagement with the geographic corners of the country at first seem, and in many ways undeniably are, eminent policy goals for New Delhi to have posited. And, to be sure, many Arunachalis are enthusiastic about aspects of them. Measures such as the setting up of a special scholarship fund for Northeast students, calls for greater local employment-generation, launch of new radio networks, pledges for better phone connectivity, efforts to leverage the state’s strengths in organic farming, and demands for greater accountability from the state government have all been met with favourably. Most Arunachalis also seem to be happy with one aspect of the changes in their indigenous identities. They welcome the popular embrace of Hindi and English, reasoning that they are equipping them for jobs.

Yet, the worry that indigenous identities in a broader sense will be lost in the process is pervasive. After all it is greater engagement with the rest of the country and the world that, primarily, has weakened Arunachalis’ links with their roots.

Two intra-Arunachal matters about the state’s indigenous identities must be noted before proceeding further. By no means do these identities constitute a monolith. Each is, no doubt, associated with one of the state’s many tribes; but the tribes are not the same. Also, it would be wrong to suggest that these identities would remain static in the absence of external influence. They wouldn’t. No culture ever remains static.

Based on several hundred interviews I conducted during my research, it appears Arunachalis are most concerned about the intertwined issues of connectivity, tourism and ILPs. They are uneasy about the vigour with which the prime minister’s policies impinge on them. Until January, the only means of accessing Arunachal was by road, or by helicopter. Now, since the prime minister’s recent visit, Arunachal is not only on the railway map but will also, soon, be on the aerial grid. In his speech in the state on 20 February, the prime minister noted that greater connectivity would bring many gains to Arunachal. One would be tourism, both domestic and international. That is well. But most Arunachalis worry that given their low population and already diverse demography, the presence of even a few thousand more non-Arunachalis will have an outsized, adverse effect on the state’s identity. Arunachal’s population is a little short of 14 lakh, making it the third least populated state in the country (after Sikkim and Mizoram); by way of comparison Delhi is eight times as populated. And of Arunachal’s 14-lakh residents six lakh (42.8 percent) are not native to the state, that is do not belong to one of Arunachal’s 20 tribes.

Arunachalis reason that their hold on the state’s demographics would further attenuate if the ILP regime is not enforced (especially in the context of an increased number of tourists and other entrants). A train had in fact commenced last year, and was greeted with enthusiasm. But once it began, Arunachalis were alarmed to find the absence of a mechanism for checking ILPs; local newspapers carried front-page reports of entrants without permits.

Arunachalis see the ILP as a final lifeline for the preservation of their identity. If it isn’t enforced, or if it is revoked, all the floodgates will open and Arunachal will no longer remain Arunachal – in their eyes, at least. With daily reports of ILP violation, anger billowed last year to the point that local student groups threatened vandalising railway property, were the train not immediately suspended. It was, 31 days after its launch.

The trains that Prime Minister Modi inaugurated this year, on February 20, have now been in operation for four months. This time around measures are in place for checking ILPs, and reports of ILP-violation are scarce.

Still, many Arunachalis wonder if the government will be able to ensure that entrants leave the state within the permitted time. Checking for permits at entry points is one thing. But how will the state machinery scour the state’s 80,000 square kilometers, to ensure that those who have entered are not staying on illegally? Arunachalis worry that eventually, they might become a minority in their own state.

Should Arunachal get special treatment?

In some sense the anxiety in Arunachal today exists at one level or another in all of India’s 29 states, and has existed for many decades. Most states were formed on the basis of certain culturally distinguishing and unifying factors – typically linguistic. Even so, Gujarat is Gujarati in nature only to an extent. Punjab is Punjabi in culture only to a degree.

All of this, arguably, is as it should be, is the price (and privilege) of being part of a country as diverse yet unitary as India. Arunachalis ought to understand this, and abandon at least part of their rigidity over identity preservation. This is for many specific reasons.

First, the ILP system, even though administered by the central government, is – as Arunachal’s foremost political scientist, Nani Bath, has argued – unconstitutional in spirit; the Constitution of India permits free movement anywhere in the country.

Second, anxiety about indigenous identity is a pliable, perilous sentiment, and can well transmogrify into nativist fanaticism. As anyone who is familiar with the history of violence against ‘outsiders’ in, for instance, Maharashtra knows, the “native-outsider” rhetoric is dangerous business. That local groups in Arunachal have threatened vandalism over this matter is anything but reassuring. Nativism, let alone violent nativism, is fundamentally at odds with the idea of India. Nativism threatens becoming a greater force in the state given the significant unemployment: at 14%, Arunachal’s unemployment rate is the second highest amongst all states in the country. (The national average is 4.9%.) In such a milieu, it can be easy to blithely blame ‘outsiders’ for taking up local jobs, and for problems more generally.

Third, if everyone in a country as diverse as India were uncompromising about their indigenous identity, there could be no internal movement. Anyone from another region, or state, or even village would be suspect – would be seen as an outsider.

Fourth, internal cultural diversity is not a matter unique to India, and Mr. Modi’s approach is broadly in keeping with his colleagues’ in other parts of the world. America, England, France – all of these countries are internally diverse. And they savor and allow for the savoring of internal diversity. Yet, they also demand allegiance to a certain national oneness, and to all that that oneness entails and demands.

So should Arunachal get special treatment for the preservation of its indigenous identities? It ought be noted that as many as a dozen states receive some kind of special treatment – for a variety of reasons and in a variety of ways. So Arunachal isn’t alone here, or even among just a few. There is an entire part to the constitution – called “temporary, transitional, and special provisions” – devoted to the particularities these states are accorded. Yet the relative autonomy that Arunachal enjoys is a shared second (along with Nagaland and Mizoram) only to Jammu and Kashmir.

And so until the ILP regime continues New Delhi would be according Arunachal a significantly special status. But given the Modi government’s integrationist policies, it appears that New Delhi’s appetite for according this status is waning. As far as indigenous identity is concerned, the ‘final frontier’ is on the pathway of becoming ‘mainstream’ – another Gujarat, another Punjab – and, therefore, simultaneously more disconnected with itself.

Given this imminent development, it appears that the Modi approach is abandoning a key, eminent element of Mr Nehru’s thinking. Mr Nehru had sought that Arunachalis should not only have to accept broader Indian culture but also be able to direct it. That’s hardly happening today. Mr Nehru’s ideals, therefore, have been betrayed over time, including under Mr Modi’s ongoing watch. With the fraying of the local, and the burgeoning of the non-local, it seems Arunachalis are accepting, and being made to accept, broader Indian and international cultures at the expense of their own.

Arunachalis matter for who they are. They shouldn’t become mere props for fulfilling a belated recognition of security and development imperatives. While Nehru was perhaps too mindful of local concerns, the Modi government appears to presuppose, inaccurately, that the long-isolated people of the state have accepted the primacy of national identity. India’s founding ideal, as articulated by Nehru, is ‘unity amidst diversity’. At a time of geopolitical threats and economic under-development, the Modi government is laying emphasis on one side of the ideal: unity. In the process, diversity – in the form of indigenous identities and local cultural treasures – is getting shortchanged, even if unintentionally.

Sure, continuing to give special consideration to a state, 70 years after independence, for purposes of local identity preservation is difficult to justify. But it is, arguably, justified, given New Delhi’s notably uneven policy towards the state – from almost total distancing to aggressive integrating – from 1947 down to today. A more even policy, over the decades, of gradual integration, would likely not have brought Arunachal to the pass it is in today. So Mr. Modi is doing well by pursuing his security and developmental objectives. But it is also significantly incumbent upon New Delhi to work towards upholding Arunachalees’ indigenous identities.

Given the many compelling, competing arguments between greater integration and local identity preservation, perhaps the real question isn’t of whether Arunachal should integrate or should be closed off. It’s of the kind of integration and the kind of closedness that might be sought, and the role that government policy should play.

Arunachalis and New Delhi ought to realize that the dynamic between integration and local cultural protection isn’t zero sum; a positive sum relation can be nurtured. If integrating entails a mature understanding of a larger national identity and closer linkages with the national and international economy, excellent. If closedness entails doing everything within the constitution to preserve local cultures, also excellent. It’s difficult to see how either of these developments could be undesirable. But if integrating means jettisoning indigenous identities and blindly embracing other practices, and if closedness means nativist violence against outsiders, those would be disastrous.

Moments after Mr Atum left us, I asked my translator to explain what Mr Atum had said in response to a question. He said he wasn’t sure; Mr Atum had used a Nyishi phrase that he, Hina Mohan, my translator – 25, based in Sagalee, a Nyishi, a businessman and activist, wearing faded jeans and Ray Ban sunglasses (as opposed to classic Nyishi accompaniments such as the headdress pudum or the knife oyo) – had no clue about. This shouldn’t be surprising. When even the seemingly unchangeable like Mr Atum have changed (from Donyi Poloism to Christianity, and toward demanding money as a condition for conversation), the changeable are bound to change, and to a lot greater degree. Arunachalis recognise this. And they are pessimistic about their culture’s ability to hold on much further in the face of existing trends and new policies.

*Abhimanyu Chandra is a graduate of the Yale College Class of 2014, and a 2014-15 Yale Charles P. Howland fellow.

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EU Support For Keeping Greece In Eurozone Elusive

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(EurActiv) — Greece will vote on its future in the eurozone on Sunday (5 July). If such a poll were to be conducted across the EU, it is far from certain that a majority would back further concessions to Athens as the price for keeping the Union intact. The EurActiv Network reports.

Eastern European countries in the euro area are saying, “Don’t ask my people to help you again when my standard of living is lower than yours,” French finance minister Michel Sapin commented today (1 July).

Indeed, of all the Eastern European newcomers, only Slovenia has something approximating the same GNI per capita as Greece, Slovakia Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania having lower levels.

Moreover, Slovakia is the only country where a government fell in 2011 because of the contribution it needed to pay to the bailout fund from which Greece benefitted.

Slovakia: ‘Not at any price’

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that Slovakia wants Greece to stay in the eurozone, however, “not at any price.”

“We are mentally and technically ready for a crisis scenario – Athens leaving the eurozone,” Fico stated. Slovakia should not be significantly affected by the possible exit of Greece from the euro area because it is not especially close to Greece economically.

In the past, Fico also opposed the idea of Greek debt relief, called it a “false solidarity”.

“I do not see a reason why Slovakia, with its salaries and pensions, should directly give money to somebody else,” Fico said in February.

The issue of pensions resonates with the public as well. Since 2009, the average pension in Greece has reportedly decreased to €833. In comparison, despite the fact that Slovakia has one of the fastest growing economies in the eurozone, the average pension has only reached €408.

Regarding the Greek referendum, Minister of Finance Peter Kažimír, along with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Miroslav Lajčák, pointed out that the planned event comes too late and no longer has the potential to solve anything.

Bulgaria: ‘Eurozone should get disciplined’

Bulgaria is not in the eurozone, but as the only EU neighbour of Greece, the country feels affected by the possible scenarios of a Greek default.

Speaking to the press on 26 June at the last EU summit, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov said he had asked EU leaders to look at the statistics about how many EU summits they have spent working “until four in the morning” on the Greek dossier.

“I asked Alexis [Tsipras] a simple question. Will they be able after six months to continue by themselves, or not?” Borissov said.

The Bulgarian Prime Minister also said that he had initiated measures so that funds from the Greek banks in Bulgaria don’t get repatriated to Greece.

Asked about Bulgaria’s ambitions to join the eurozone, he said:

“If the eurozone doesn’t get disciplined, I see no reason why we should hurry to join it.” Borissov added: “If we were in the eurozone, we too would have to give Greece money. So the poorer will give money to the richer, which doesn’t make sense to me.”

Borissov also slammed Greece for not doing enough to fight smuggling, and said he has invited his Greek colleague, Alexis Tsipras, to come and see what measures have been taken at the Bulgarian side of the border.

“If the two countries work hand in hand, they will be able to collect much more income by curbing smuggling, and this would benefit the Greek budget,” Borissov said.

Czech Republic: Bankruptcy not necessarily bad

The Czech Republic is not a member of the eurozone either. The strongest statement was made by Finance Minister Andrej Babiš, who said that “Greece should finally go bankrupt.”

“I do not know whether you know that in the last 200 years, Greece went bankrupt four times. And I think that it should finally go bankrupt for the fifth time so that the space gets clean,” Babiš said.

Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka linked the Greek default to the immigration crisis.

“The bankruptcy of Greece would harm whole EU and worsen the refugee crisis. 80 % of Czech export goes to eurozone countries and that is why the stability of the eurozone is among our strategic interests,” he said last week. Sobotka stressed the need for a stable Greece to tack the current migration wave. “Greece should improve the southern border of the EU. If it goes bankrupt, it will worsen the whole refugee crisis.”

Sobotka also called “absurd” the referendum initiated by the Greek government.

Petr Fiala, the leader of the opposition party ODS, which is campaigning against the entry of the Czech Republic into the eurozone in the future, found new arguments in the Greek crisis.

“The spendthrift policy in combination with the currency which the government could not influence, leads to the crisis. Greece is a proof and warning,” he wrote on Twitter.

France divided

In France, the leader of the French Republicain (formerly UMP) delegation in the European Parliament, Alain Lamassoure, showed his impatience with the Greek debt issue on Saturday (28 June). He suggested a different referendum question that could be put to the other European countries.

“Do you agree to keep paying part of the incomes of Greek civil servants and retirees, instead of the Greek taxpayers?” Lamassoure tweeted.

However France remains divided on Greece, mostly along political lines.

Jean-Christophe Cambadelis, the Greek-descended president of the French Socialist Party, has made no attempt to hide his opposition to the idea of Greece leaving the eurozone.

He told iTélé on 22 June that Grexit would be “a leap into the void”.

For the left wing of the party, the government’s position on the Greek crisis has been too much aligned with Germany.

Socialist MEP Emmanuel Maurel summed up the situation as he sees it: “The problem is that François Hollande wants to preserve his relationship with Angela Merkel, which has been on the up lately. But this is not acceptable.”

The German Chancellor made it clear on Monday that a negative response to Sunday’s referendum would leave Greece with no option but to leave the single currency.

“It’s no wonder the Greeks slammed the door on the negotiations, when you look at what they were being offered,” the MEP added.

Emmanuel Maurel is not the alone in his support for Syriza.

The issue divided the Socialist Party congress in Poitiers in June. The left-wing faction booed the anti-Syriza members, while pro-Syriza speakers were received with applause.

“France must commit to standing resolutely beside the Greeks, and not just paying them lip service. And too bad if it has to come at the expense of the old German savers!” Maurel added.

On the right of French politics, the Republicans have adopted a position of full frontal opposition to the Syriza government, the message being talks are possible, but with different interlocutors in Athens.

Majority of Germans want Greece out of the euro

In Germany, in June, a clear majority of Germans spoke out in favour of a withdrawal of Greece from the eurozone. According to a poll conducted by YouGov, 58% said they would prefer the country leaving the euro. Conversely, 28% said they want to keep Greece in the eurozone. 14% percent had no opinion or did not specify.

Leading politicians of Germany’s opposition parties are accusing Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government of not having a concept in dealing with the Greek crisis.

“They are willing to accept a crash without knowing exactly what will happen after,” said Left Party leader Gregor Gysi after a meeting of Merkel with top representatives of all parties represented in parliament on Monday.

However, Green and Left participants at this meeting say they got the impression that the federal government is generally ready for further negotiations towards a solution. Left Party leader Bernd Riexinger said he believes Merkel does not want to “be the Chancellor under whom the eurozone in its current form breaks up”.

“Greece is a member of the eurozone,” stated government spokesman Steffen Seibert on Monday. “Our effort has always been to allow Greece to remain a member of the eurozone.” Merkel herself called for “compromises” from the Greek side on Monday and reiterated her constant warning of recent years: “If the euro fails, Europe fails”. Should the Greek government ask for further negotiations after the referendum, “we will of course not avoid such negotiations,“ Merkel said. However, she insisted that she and other European leaders would not budge from their past insistence on pro-market overhauls in Greece in exchange for more bailout money. Europe’s currency and economic union depended on the principles of “self-effort and solidarity,” she explained. “If these principles are not upheld, I am deeply convinced, the euro will fail and that we do not want.”

Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) issued a warning, calling the referendum in Greece a vote of the Greeks on the euro as their currency. “It must be clear what is being decided: It is in essence the question of ‘Yes or No to remain in the eurozone’,” Gabriel said. The Greek government needed to tell its population this openly, he demanded. On Wednesday, there will be a debate on the Greek crisis in the Bundestag.

Italy: concerns connected to banks

In Italy, the Greek drama revives memories of December 2011, when speculative attacks were so strong that the Italian government had to face a default scenario.

Since then, the Italian Ministry of Finance has planned specific actions to manage its debt and avoid any kind of problems. More specifically, during the first part of the year, most of the bond auctions were brought forward to take advantage of the low spreads. In April, about 50% of the total annual bonds were already sold. That’s why, at official level, nobody is expecting a big shock, even though Italy has about 37,2 billion euros in credit exposure to Greece.

Talking about public perception, the biggest concern is connected to banks: if sovereign spreads increase, the cost of mortgages could raise dramatically. The Italian banks association (Abi) gave some numbers to describe what is going to happen: the real exposure banks have to Greece is just 800 million euros.

That’s why an uncontrolled Grexit would not be a big deal for Italian credit market. There’s some anxiety, but the dominant feeling is that Italy is generally much more solid than 2011.

Spanish party Podemos sees plot

Pablo Iglesias, the leader of left-wing Podemos, the winner in many Spanish regions after the municipal elections held last May, said the hypothetical scenario of a “Grexit” would have direct consequences not only for the Greek people, but also across the EU, and could also damage the electoral prospects of the emerging parties in southern Europe, similar to Syriza.

Podemos is often called “the Spanish Syriza” and the prospects are that it could be part of a leftist government following parliamentary elections this autumn.

“They want to scare the Spaniards punishing the Greeks,” Iglesias said. The last proposals by the (former) troika to Greece, he added, are an “ultimatum and blackmail” to Athens.

Podemos supports Tsipras’ decision to call for a referendum on the European plan, “as democrats do” everywhere, Iglesias pointed out.

Conversely, when Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was asked about the referendum, he said “nobody likes it”.

Rajoy considers it of “crucial” importance that Greece remains in the eurozone. “The worst thing that can happen to Greece and to the Greek citizens would be a euro exit,” he said. The premier that “Spaniards can rest,” because, thanks to the reforms implemented by his right-wing government, the Iberian country was no longer in the “danger zone” anymore.

Spain´s Minister of Economy and Competitiveness, Luis de Guindos, said Spain was “ready” to prevent a possible contagion of the Greek crisis. In a radio interview, De Guindos, who is Spain´s candidate for the presidency of the Eurogroup, stressed the last good data on growth and deficit in Spain somehow “protect the Spanish economy from a contagion process” from Greece.

On the other hand, the secretary general of the Spanish Socialists (PSOE), Pedro Sánchez, warned Greece against the danger of a hypothetical debt restructuring. “A debt must always be paid,” he said last week, on the sidelines of a meeting of the European socialist leaders. Tsipras is “causing instability”, he added. This instability is causing suffering to the most vulnerable (the Greek people), “who ends up paying for this crisis”.

Cyprus to be mediator in Greek talks

Cyprus, a country in which the Greek flag is seen much more often than the national one, has suffered immensely from the exposure of Cypriot banks to the Greek government crisis, in 2012-2013.

Cypriot President, Nicos Anastasiades, is known to have made a series of contacts with EU leaders to lobby for a compromise between Athens and the creditors.

Anastasiades said: “We play a leading role in order for Greece to remain (in the eurozone). We want (Greece) to be strong for all the obvious reasons, but also because a program that will give the opportunity of economic recovery is needed, but also a relief, especially of Greek citizens.”

At the same time, the Cypriot MEP of EPP, Eleni Theocharous, called for an immediate EU response to the humanitarian crisis in Greece. Asked by EurActiv Greece to comment on the dramatic developments in Athens, Dr. Theocharous said that she had sent a letter to the President of European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, urging him to take an immediate initiative to tackle the humanitarian crisis that Greek citizens have been through, regardless of the referendum’s outcome.

Turkish party offers to pay the Greek IMF installment

Although Turkey is not an EU member, it has been is watching the developments in Greece with concern, mainly because the EU is its main trade partner and especially the tourism industries of the two neighbouring countries are closely interlinked.

“Populism leads to disaster!” tweeted Mehmet Şimşek, Turkey’s conservative finance minister, sharing a link to an article about the capital controls imposed in Greece.

Meanwhile, a leftist party in the Turkish parliament floated the unusual idea that Turkey could foot the bill. Speaking at a news conference held in Ankara, Ertuğrul Kürkçü, an MP from People’s Democratic Party (HDP) said that Turkey should show solidarity and offer its neighbour a 1.6bn euro interest-free loan.

“Europe should run to Greece’s rescue and save itself. Greece’s failure would pose serious ruptures for the euro and the European Union,” said Kürkçü, adding that that “Germany, ECB and IMF were exerting pressure on the Syriza government not because they defended the interests of Greece, but of their own money”.

Unlike Syriza, the pro-Kurdish HDP is actually affiliated with the Party of European Socialists (PES). However, Syriza openly supported the HDP in Turkey’s last general elections in early June.

The EurActiv Network: Myrna Nikolaidou, Lucie Bednarova, Can Girgiç, Giuseppe Latour, Aline Robert, Daniel Tost, Martina Dupakova, Fernando Heller, and Georgi Gotev

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Kuwait’s New Law Breakthrough For Domestic Workers, Says HRW

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Kuwaiti legislators’ adoption on June 24, 2015, of a new law giving domestic workers enforceable labor rights is a major breakthrough that should lead other Gulf states to take similar action, Human Rights Watch said today. Kuwaiti authorities should rigorously carry out the new law and address remaining legal and policy gaps that discriminate against domestic workers and put them at risk.

The law passed by Kuwait’s National Assembly is the country’s first regulating the labor rights of domestic workers. The country has an estimate of more than 660,000 such workers, most of them women from Asia and Africa. The Kuwait newspaper, Al-Jarida, published the text of the new law, which grants domestic workers the right to a weekly day off, 30 days of annual paid leave, a 12-hour working day with rest, and an end-of-service benefit of one month a year at the end of the contract, among other rights.

“Kuwait’s parliament has taken a major step forward by providing domestic workers with enforceable labor rights for the first time,” said Rothna Begum, Middle East women’s rights researcher at Human Rights Watch. “Now those rights need to be made a reality in Kuwait, and other Gulf states should follow Kuwait’s lead and protect the rights of their own domestic workers.”

Migrant domestic workers in Kuwait constitute nearly a third of the country’s entire workforce yet are excluded from the main labor law that protects other workers’ rights. A 2010 Human Rights Watch report documented many abuses against domestic workers, including non-payment of wages, long working hours with no rest days, physical and sexual assault, and no clear channels for redress.

The new law will come into force once Kuwait’s Emir has formally approved it and the final text is published in the Official Gazette. The Interior Ministry is required to issue regulations to implement the law within six months of its publication.

The new law, as published in Al-Jarida, is significant because it gives domestic workers enforceable labor rights for the first time, but it lacks key protections found in the general labor law. The labor law – Law no.6 of 2010 on Labor in the Private Sector – provides for a 48-hour work week, or 8 hours a day, and an hour of rest after every 5 hours of work. But the domestic workers law provides for a maximum 12-hour working day with unspecified “hours of rest” and one day off a week. The labor law also has detailed provisions for sick leave, under article 69, including 15 days at full pay, whereas the domestic worker law simply requires employers to provide medical treatment.

The domestic worker law also falls short by failing to set out enforcement mechanisms, such as labor inspections. It prohibits employers from confiscating workers’ passports, a common abuse, but fails to specify penalties. The new law does not guarantee the right to form a union. Kuwaiti authorities should address these gaps in the implementing regulations, Human Rights Watch said.

Despite the new law, Kuwait retains other policies that put domestic workers at risk of exploitation and abuse. For example, under the kafala – visa-sponsorship – system, migrant domestic workers cannot transfer to another employer until their original contract ends without their current employer’s consent. This policy traps many domestic workers in abusive situations. Under this system, domestic workers who leave their jobs before the end of their contract without their sponsor’s consent are considered to have “absconded,” a crime under Kuwaiti law. They can be arbitrarily detained, fined, or sentenced to imprisonment. For workers escaping abusive employers, such a charge ends up punishing the victim, Human Rights Watch said.

“The new legislation is a start, but domestic workers remain at high risk in Kuwait,” Begum said. “Kuwait should continue improving protections for domestic workers by ending policies that can trap them with abusive employers or punish them for escaping.”

To ensure that the new law is effective, Kuwaiti authorities should raise awareness about it among domestic workers and employers, Human Rights Watch said. They should sanction employers who violate the law and ensure that court reviews of complaints are efficient.

The National Assembly also passed a law replacing private recruitment agencies for migrant domestic workers with public shareholding companies. According to news reports, 60 percent of company shares will be owned by cooperative societies (jointly-owned social enterprises) and 40 percent by government agencies. The law obliges these companies to train domestic workers before they leave their country of origin. Currently, recruitment agencies often pass costs to workers. The law on domestic workers prohibits such agencies and their employees from receiving any payments from domestic workers and, if found to do so, the authorities can charge them with extortion.

Kuwait has gone further than its Gulf neighbors in providing for domestic workers’ rights under law. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman exclude domestic workers from their labor laws.

Bahrain’s 2012 labor law affords domestic workers annual vacations as well as access to mediation in labor disputes – but it fails to provide other basic protections, such as weekly rest days, a minimum wage, and limits on working hours.

Saudi Arabia adopted a regulation in 2013 that grants domestic workers nine hours of rest in every twenty-four, with one day off a week, and one month of paid vacation after two years. But domestic workers can be required to work up to 15 hours a day, whereas Saudi labor law limits other workers to 8 hours of work daily.

Kuwait and other Gulf countries should ratify the ILO Convention on Decent Work for Domestic Workers, Human Rights Watch said. This treaty establishes global standards on domestic workers rights, and states that protections for domestic workers should be the same as for other workers.

“Kuwait has set an important precedent for its Gulf neighbors by accepting that domestic workers’ rights should be protected in law,” Begum said. “Other Gulf countries should follow suit.”

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President Obama On Re-Establishment Of Diplomatic Relations With Cuba – Statement

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By US President Barack Obama

Good morning, everybody. Please have a seat.

More than 54 years ago, at the height of the Cold War, the United States closed its embassy in Havana. Today, I can announce that the United States has agreed to formally re-establish diplomatic relations with the Republic of Cuba, and re-open embassies in our respective countries. This is a historic step forward in our efforts to normalize relations with the Cuban government and people, and begin a new chapter with our neighbors in the Americas.

When the United States shuttered our embassy in 1961, I don’t think anyone expected that it would be more than half a century before it re-opened. After all, our nations are separated by only 90 miles, and there are deep bonds of family and friendship between our people. But there have been very real, profound differences between our governments, and sometimes we allow ourselves to be trapped by a certain way of doing things.

For the United States, that meant clinging to a policy that was not working. Instead of supporting democracy and opportunity for the Cuban people, our efforts to isolate Cuba despite good intentions increasingly had the opposite effect -– cementing the status quo and isolating the United States from our neighbors in this hemisphere. The progress that we mark today is yet another demonstration that we don’t have to be imprisoned by the past. When something isn’t working, we can -– and will –- change.

Last December, I announced that the United States and Cuba had decided to take steps to normalize our relationship. As part of that effort, President Raul Castro and I directed our teams to negotiate the re-establishment of embassies. Since then, our State Department has worked hard with their Cuban counterparts to achieve that goal. And later this summer, Secretary Kerry will travel to Havana formally to proudly raise the American flag over our embassy once more.

This is not merely symbolic. With this change, we will be able to substantially increase our contacts with the Cuban people. We’ll have more personnel at our embassy. And our diplomats will have the ability to engage more broadly across the island. That will include the Cuban government, civil society, and ordinary Cubans who are reaching for a better life.

On issues of common interest –- like counterterrorism, disaster response, and development -– we will find new ways to cooperate with Cuba. And I’ve been clear that we will also continue to have some very serious differences. That will include America’s enduring support for universal values, like freedom of speech and assembly, and the ability to access information. And we will not hesitate to speak out when we see actions that contradict those values.

However, I strongly believe that the best way for America to support our values is through engagement. That’s why we’ve already taken steps to allow for greater travel, people-to-people and commercial ties between the United States and Cuba. And we will continue to do so going forward.

Since December, we’ve already seen enormous enthusiasm for this new approach. Leaders across the Americas have expressed support for our change in policy; you heard that expressed by President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil yesterday. Public opinion surveys in both our countries show broad support for this engagement. One Cuban said, “I have prepared for this all my life.” Another said that that, “this is like a shot of oxygen.” One Cuban teacher put it simply: “We are neighbors. Now we can be friends.”

Here in the United States, we’ve seen that same enthusiasm. There are Americans who want to travel to Cuba and American businesses who want to invest in Cuba. American colleges and universities that want to partner with Cuba. Above all, Americans who want to get to know their neighbors to the south. And through that engagement, we can also help the Cuban people improve their own lives. One Cuban American looked forward to “reuniting families and opening lines of communications.” Another put it bluntly: “You can’t hold the future of Cuba hostage to what happened in the past.”

And that’s what this is about: a choice between the future and the past.

Americans and Cubans alike are ready to move forward. I believe it’s time for Congress to do the same. I’ve called on Congress to take steps to lift the embargo that prevents Americans from travelling or doing business in Cuba. We’ve already seen members from both parties begin that work. After all, why should Washington stand in the way of our own people?

Yes, there are those who want to turn back the clock and double down on a policy of isolation. But it’s long past time for us to realize that this approach doesn’t work. It hasn’t worked for 50 years. It shuts America out of Cuba’s future, and it only makes life worse for the Cuban people.

So I’d ask Congress to listen to the Cuban people. Listen to the American people. Listen to the words of a proud Cuban American, Carlos Gutierrez, who recently came out against the policy of the past, saying, “I wonder if the Cubans who have to stand in line for the most basic necessities for hours in the hot Havana sun feel that this approach is helpful to them.”

Of course, nobody expects Cuba to be transformed overnight. But I believe that American engagement — through our embassy, our businesses, and most of all, through our people — is the best way to advance our interests and support for democracy and human rights. Time and again, America has demonstrated that part of our leadership in the world is our capacity to change. It’s what inspires the world to reach for something better.

A year ago, it might have seemed impossible that the United States would once again be raising our flag, the stars and stripes, over an embassy in Havana. This is what change looks like.

In January of 1961, the year I was born, when President Eisenhower announced the termination of our relations with Cuba, he said: It is my hope and my conviction that it is “in the not-too-distant future it will be possible for the historic friendship between us once again to find its reflection in normal relations of every sort.” Well, it took a while, but I believe that time has come. And a better future lies ahead.

Thank you very much. And I want to thank some of my team who worked diligently to make this happen. They’re here. They don’t always get acknowledged. We’re really proud of them. Good work.

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Turkish Economy After Elections: In Search Of New Paradigm – Analysis

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By Mustafa Kutlay*

Turkey passed a new threshold with the June 7 general elections. There is now a quasi-consensus that the recent election is one of the crucial turning points in the history of contemporary Turkish politics. The Justice and Development Party (AKP in Turkish acronym), which had ruled the country under single party majority governments for about 13 years, lost its parliamentary majority and therewith the ability to retain its unchallenged power while nonetheless managing to achieve an unequivocal electoral success with more than 40 percent of the total vote. Now, as the parties navigate potential coalition alternatives, the post-election agenda is also becoming clear. In this context, the Turkish economy has emerged as one of the important files to which the new coalition government will devote considerable effort.

The Turkish economy performed quite well in the aftermath of the devastating 2001 economic crisis. Many pundits and market players appreciated the economic expansion in Turkey experienced under the AKP governments. In fact, the economy grew rather impressively during this period, according its own historical standards. As highlighted by a recent World Bank report, “Turkey’s [recent] economic success has become a source of inspiration for a number of developing countries, particularly, but not only, in the Muslim world. The rise of Turkey’s economy is admired, all the more so because it seems to go hand in hand with democratic political institutions and an expanding voice for the poor and lower middle classes.”

During the AKP era, Turkey’s GDP per capita increased three-fold and its trade volume expanded from 114 to 476 billion dollars in current prices. Despite the fact that this transformation is less striking in constant prices, it is still the case that Turkey succeeded in ensuring respectable and, more importantly, uninterrupted growth rates in a single digit inflation environment. As a result, the middle classes prospered and income inequality indicators improved significantly. For instance, Turkey’s Gini coefficient, an indicator that measures income inequality, declined from 0.42 in 2003 to 0.38 in 2013.

The challenges ahead

That being said, the Turkish economy has come to the precipice of a new threshold, namely the middle-income trap, the escape from which necessitates new momentum to ensure high and sustainable growth rates. The first of the urgent problems in this context is declining economic growth in recent years. The annual growth rate realized as 3.2 percent annually from 2008-2014, which was 6.8 percent between 2002 and 2007. Not surprisingly, the sharp decline in growth figures exacerbated Turkey’s recalcitrant unemployment problem. The unemployment rate in the country has now increased to 11.3 percent, according to recent figures.

Second, the current account deficit also became an imminent fragility in the Turkish economy. High current account deficits, hovering around 8 percent in 2013 and 5.8 percent in 2014, make Turkey vulnerable to external shocks in a regional and global environment characterized by intense uncertainty. In a recent Global Turkey in Europe report, I maintained that the root causes of Turkey’s current account deficit are deep-seated and structural. Stated differently, foreign trade deficits stand out as a major factor that feeds current account deficits. Turkey mainly exports consumption goods, while importing investment and intermediary goods. Thus, the structure of Turkish foreign trade leads to a vicious cycle, as Turkey’s exports are heavily dependent on imported intermediate items. The country’s inadequate export performance is closely related to the technological composition of manufactured exports. For instance, the share of high technology accounted for in Turkey’s total manufactured exports is less than 2 percent, well below the world average.

Third, the autonomy of economic institutions has recently become subject to intense political debate. The political ruling elite, especially the president, openly criticized the Central Bank over its interest rates policy. The president’s criticism is considered as an outright intervention at the expense of the independence of the Central Bank and other independent regulatory institutions. This political intervention led to anxiety in the markets regarding the politicization of economic decision-making processes. It is therefore expected that the new coalition government needs to work hard to rebuild the institutional autonomy of the regulatory institutions. In an increasingly instable regional and global environment, the credibility of economic institutions becomes more than important in ensuring positive and sustainable growth rates.

In search of a new paradigm

Having taken this sensitive economic background into consideration, the incoming government needs to work hard on three grounds. First, a new paradigm that will revitalize Turkey’s growth performance is in order. The latest IMF estimates suggest that the Turkish economy will grow 3.1 and 3.6 percent in 2015 and 2016 respectively. In order to increase growth performance, Turkey needs to invest in high-value added production and export sectors. This also relates to the second area that will require increased attention. Turkey’s current account deficit is structural in nature. As I explained previously, for every export item, Turkey heavily depends on imported intermediary products. This high intensity of imported items in the production and export processes leads to the perpetuation of trade deficits. In 2014, for instance, Turkey’s trade deficit reached 84.5 billion dollars. Thus, the new government must develop comprehensive strategies to address structural current account problems. The transition to high-value added production is sine qua non not only to overcome the current account challenge but also to break out of the infamous middle-income trap. Third, the new Turkish government will be expected to consolidate the autonomy and inclusiveness of economic, legal and political institutions to properly manage market expectations and underpin investor confidence.

In the aftermath of the elections, different coalition scenarios are now on the table. Yet regardless of which scenario prevails, the economic agenda for the new government will remain similar, focusing on: The implementation of a comprehensive industrial strategy that addresses the middle-income trap and current account deficits, the creation of a genuinely pluralistic political order that feeds the deepening of democratic practices, the reformation of the education system that promotes free and creative thinking, and the consolidation of a legal system that guarantees political accountability and transparency, all of which in turn, are expected to jointly inform high quality and sustainable economic growth.

*This op-ed is a shortened, revised, and updated version of a working paper published by the Global Turkey in Europe series. See Mustafa Kutlay, ”The Turkish Economy at a Crossroads: Unpacking Turkey’s Current Account Challenge,” Roma: IAI, Global Turkey in Europe Series, Working Paper 10.

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Cranberry Juice May Help Protect Against Heart Disease And Diabetes Risk Factors

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A new study (1) reveals that drinking low-calorie cranberry juice cocktail may help lower the risk of chronic diseases that rank among the leading causes of death worldwide, including heart disease, diabetes and stroke.

The finding is welcome news considering the World Health Organization estimates the trio of diseases annually claim 15.6 million lives around the globe (2). These illnesses are among the most common and costly health conditions, but fortunately, they are also among the most preventable through dietary intervention. That’s where this research comes in. It shows that cranberries provide a rich source of protective compounds – called polyphenols – that support our body’s natural defenses and help us achieve a balanced lifestyle to improve health.

Sipping Your Way to Better Health

To discover the extent to which polyphenol-rich cranberries can bolster whole-body health, researchers from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) provided eight weeks’ worth of meals to 56 healthy adult volunteers (average 50 years of age). One group drank a glass (8 oz) of low-calorie cranberry juice twice daily (16 oz total). Meanwhile, the other group drank a placebo beverage with a similar color and flavor.

“At the start and end of the experiment, the researchers measured things like blood pressure, blood sugar levels, blood lipids, as well as C-reactive protein, a marker of inflammation,” explained Christina Khoo, PhD, Director of Research Sciences at Ocean Spray. “All of these measurements come together to tell a story. The worse off these numbers are in an individual, the more likely he or she will face a health condition like diabetes, heart disease or stroke in the future.”

Individuals drinking two glasses of low-calorie cranberry juice a day improved across all these measures. It’s a change that adds up, and could be associated with a 10 percent lower risk of heart disease and a 15 percent lower risk of stroke (3). Of note, the reductions in blood pressure numbers alone matched those achieved from top-rated diets such as DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) (4); an eating pattern established as the gold standard for lowering blood pressure after several successful studies by the National Institutes of Health.

Power-Packed with Polyphenols

“These findings suggest that polyphenols help to protect our bodies, and may be adept at keeping a large number of ailments at bay,” said Dr. Khoo. “Luckily for us, a rich source of polyphenols is only a glass of cranberry juice away. Among the commonly consumed fruits in our diets, cranberries boast some of the highest levels of polyphenols – more than apples, blueberries, grapes or cherries.”

Incorporating these tart-tasting berries into our daily diets is a sustainable and practical lifestyle approach that holds notable promise for improving health. In addition to the cardiometobolic effects of polyphenols, cranberries also contain unique proanthocyanidins (PACs) that may help prevent certain bacteria from sticking inside the body.

Track Record of Whole-Body Health

The findings by the team of USDA researchers that drinking cranberry juice could lower disease risk comes on the heels of supporting research that further espouses cranberry products as part of a healthy diet and balanced lifestyle. Two recent studies (5,6) analyzing four years’ worth of data from the Center for Disease Control’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), found that those who regularly drink cranberry juice are more likely to be normal weight, have significantly lower waist circumference and showcase improved heart health characteristics. Add these benefits to cranberry’s known track record of maintaining urinary tract health, and you have the makings of quite the all-star berry.

Footnotes:
(1) Novotny, J et al. “Cranberry Juice Consumption Lowers Markers of Cardiometabolic Risk, Including Blood Pressure and Circulating C-Reactive Protein, Triglyceride, and Glucose Concentrations in Adults.” The Journal of Nutrition. 2015; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25904733

(2) World Health Organization. “Top 10 Causes of Death Fact Sheet.” WHO Media Centre. 2014. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/

(3) Collins, R et al. “Blood Pressure, Stroke, and Coronary Heart Disease. Part 2, Short-Term Reductions in Blood Pressure: Overview of Randomised Drug Trials in Their Epidemiological Context.” Lancet. 1990; 335:827-38. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1969567

(4) Heller, M. “What Is the DASH Diet?” The DASH Diet Eating Plan. 2015. http://dashdiet.org/what_is_the_dash_diet.asp

(5) Duffey KJ et al. “Adult Cranberry Beverage Consumers Have Healthier Macronutrient Intakes and Measures of Body Composition Compared to Non-Consumers: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2008.” Nutrients. 2013; 5.12:4938-49. http://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/5/12/4938/htm

(6) Duffey KJ et al. “Adult consumers of cranberry juice cocktail have lower C-reactive protein levels compared with nonconsumers.” Nutrition Research. 2015; 35.2: 91-174 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.nutres.2014.11.005

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British Bankers Call For Review Of EU Financial Services Laws

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(EurActiv) — British bankers have called for a review of post-crisis financial services laws, as part of reforms for better regulation from Brussels, which include a strengthened role for national parliaments.

Some regulation brought in after the financial crisis was “problematic” because of its impact on the economy and financial services, a report published by the TheCityUK, said.

The necessary speed of the rules to bolster financial stability meant that there was not enough time to evaluate their individual or cumulative effect, the report said.

The European Commission’s “Better Regulation” strategy should be used to look again at the rules, according to the report, which set out recommendations for its improvement.

The CityUK represents British-based financial services firms. The City of London is the EU’s financial hub, with many global players using it to access the EU’s Single Market.

British Prime Minister David Cameron has demanded reform of the EU as a condition for his support for Britain staying in the EU, including a focus on “better regulation”.

UK Commissioner Jonathan Hill, in charge of financial services, has said the time may be right to look again at some of the rules brought in at the height of the crisis.

During the crisis, policymakers were forced to legislate at speed “with the flames lapping at their feet”, he said in February. “It makes sense to look at the effect of that regulation over time,” he added.

At a launch event in Brussels yesterday (1 July), Alan Houmann, head of government affairs for Europe, Middle East and Africa for Citigroup, said the cumulative effect of post-crisis regulation was hindering jobs and growth.

Houmann, who oversaw the report, added laws around data privacy, bank structure reform and the Financial Transaction Tax were “job-destroying pieces of legislation”.

Mandatory reviews

There should be mandatory reviews of all EU rules by parliaments after they are put on national lawbooks, the report said.

Every new bill should also be looked over by MPs before it becomes law, the report said. Feedback should influence negotiations over laws between the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament over pending laws.

Eventually the timeframe when parliaments can use the early warning “yellow card” system should be lengthened to three months from two, said the report.

The threshold for when the procedure, which allows states to submit an opinion against a bill, should be dropped to a quarter of national parliaments.

All EU rules should be examined to evaluate their cumulative effect, rather simply on a stand-alone basis, the report said.

Analysis of the cumulative effect of regulation should become part of the Commission Regulatory Fitness and Performance Programme (REFIT), which checks the efficiency of existing EU law.

In December 2018, the European Commission announced reforms to its Impact Assessment Board. It was renamed the Regulatory Scrutiny Board and has powers to review existing and pending EU laws.

The report said the new Regulatory Scrutiny Board should be turned into an independent body, accountable to the European Parliament, to overlook impact assessment studies on behalf of the major EU institutions.Impact assessment studies are research on the effects that a new law could have on, for example, the market.

EurActiv reported in December that Commission First Vice-President Frans Timmermans, the “better regulation” chief, thought the board, which currently only works for the Commission, could one day evolve into an independent watchdog.

Stefano Sannino is Italy’s permanent representative to the EU. While agreeing with better regulation in principle, he warned against the risk of creating too many layers of bureaucracy.

“We should be careful to avoid such a bureaucratic process,” he said, “Otherwise we will have the worst of both worlds.”

He cautioned that the UK could not expect a “blank cheque” when it came to EU reforms.

Fears over eurozone influence

84% of TheCityUK members said the UK should stay in the EU, said Chris Cummings, the chief executive of TheCityUK. But many also said the bloc needed reform, he warned.

The advent of Banking Union, with all eurozone countries sharing a central bank, has raised fears over the euro area using its heft to secure unfair influence over financial services regulation.

The report asks that non-eurozone members have permanent observer status at the Eurogroup meetings of euro area finance ministers, and that the Eurogroup chairman becomes a permanent but non-voting member of the European Council.

It also recommends giving the three EU-wide financial regulators, the European Supervisory Authorities, more responsibility for ensuring the coherence of the Single Market and to boost their involvement in earlier stages of policymaking.

But the report stressed that the regulators should not be given anymore oversight powers.

The post British Bankers Call For Review Of EU Financial Services Laws appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Egypt: Gag Order Imposed On Investigation Into Prosecutor’s Assassination

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Acting Prosecutor-General Ali Omran has issued a media gag order on investigations into the assassination of his predecessor Hisham Barakat.

The order will apply to audio, video, and print media, as well as internet sites.

It will remain in force until the end of investigations. The prosecutor-general’s office will issue statements about the case and its updates.

On Tuesday, a TV show as well as several news websites in Egypt showed a photo of a former army officer who is allegedly a suspect in the assassination of Barakat.

Barakat died after a car bomb attack on his convoy in Cairo on Monday.

Original article

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Venezuela: Large Turnout In PSUV Primaries Ahead Of Parliamentary Elections – OpEd

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By Frederick B. Mills and William Camacaro*

In open primaries conducted by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) on Sunday, ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for December of this year, 3,162,400 registered voters went to the ballot box, and voting hours were extended until 10:00 PM in order to accommodate the lines at polling stations.[1] While most of the Venezuelan press, including those supportive of the anti-Chavista opposition, was reporting a significant turnout, the executive secretary of the opposition coalition, Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), sent out a tweet about the primaries:

Jesus Chuo Torrealba @ChuoTorrealba

“Mesas ‘instaladas’, pero sin gente. Y la poca gente que va, obligada. Que fracaso tan melancólico, mientras VTV habla de un país que no existe” [Tables set up, but without people. And the few people that go, obligated. What disaster so sad, while VTV speaks of a country that does not exist]

The tweet by Torrealba was such an obvious falsification of reality that the government newspaper, Correo del Orinoco was among the first to report the “strange” (insólito) tweet in its online edition last night.

Headlines from some of Venezuela’s major online newspapers yesterday and this morning, painted quite a different picture:

El Universal: More Than Three Million People Voted In PSUV Primaries (June 29, 2015, 2:42AM)

Globovision: PSUV Obtains 3,162,400 Votes in Primaries (June 28, 2015).

Ultimas Noticias: Voters Consider PSUV Primaries Historic: The great turnout [gran afluencia] of the primaries of the PSUV caused the extension of voting hours to 10 at night this Sunday. (June 28, 2015, 10:54PM)

The massive turnout, more than sixty-five percent of the total 4,584,477 votes cast for PSUV candidates during the December 2013 municipal elections, also indicates the success of house to house campaigning and of steps taken by the PSUV to open up the primary process to new faces. Party rules provided that at least half of the 1,162 pre-candidates must be women and that half have to be under age 30. Of the pre-candidates that ran yesterday, 586 are reportedly men and 586 are women and 63 percent are between 21 and 30 years old; 30 percent of those elected yesterday were women. New rules issued by the National Electoral Commission (CNE) requires at least 40 percent of candidates (and not more than 60 percent) be women. The MUD, however, which would have to scramble to meet this threshold, is opposing the rule on constitutional grounds.

In a sign that the PSUV base was not intent on throwing out the old guard, 70 percent of those running for re-election won in the primaries. Also, unlike the MUD primaries, most of the PSUV pre-candidates for the primaries were chosen by the base in over 13,000 assemblies throughout the country.

Blanca Eekhout, legislator and pre-candidate of the PSUV for the fourth circuit of the state of Miranda said today that one objective of the campaign was to win a majority in the National Assembly “to prevent what they did to Manuel Zelaya in Honduras, and to Fernando Lugo in Paraguay, from happening in the case of President Nicolás Maduro. We cannot permit sectors that are absolutely committed to war, violence, the empire, intent on sacking the people, attain their objective.” (Eekhout was elected in yesterday’s primaries.)

Over the past two years there has been some push back against centralizing tendencies in the PSUV that resulted in a number of prominent Chavistas leaving the party. President Maduro has also been taking increasing heat from a dissident Chavista left, elements of which are now intent on running their own candidates for public office. This most recent primary process, however, appears to signal moves by the party leadership to revitalize the party in the direction of more democracy.

If last night’s demonstration of the persistence of PSUV party activism is a sign of what is to come on December 6, the PSUV combined with other Chavista parties may be able to maintain a majority in the National Assembly. It appears that despite the ongoing ravages of speculative capitalism, which continues to take its toll, especially on the working class and poor, the PSUV remains the party with the largest electoral base of support in the country.

Given this show of force for democratic procedures and the turnout at these PSUV primaries, Washington should rethink its support for the opposition, the more extreme elements of which have engaged in attempts at extra constitutional regime change. This is an opportune time for Washington to repeal the executive order declaring Venezuela a threat to U.S. national security, and appoint an ambassador to Caracas.

[1] This number is expected to increase as not all votes from the state of Delta Amacuro had been counted at the time of publication.

Note: Translations by the authors are unofficial.

*Frederick B. Mills and William Camacaro, Senior Research Fellows at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

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Power Transitions In Saudi Arabia Spell Changes In Middle East – Analysis

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King Salman’s first six months introduce uncertainty in an already turbulent Middle East.

By Bruce Riedel*

In less than six months since the death of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdallah, the new king has made changes in the kingdom’s leadership. The changes have introduced considerable uncertainty in an absolute monarchy that has long prized continuity, experience and risk aversion. The success or failure of the new policies would have profound effect not just on the Middle East but on the international scene.

King Salman bin Abdul Aziz has removed Abdallah’s choice for crown prince in favor of a younger prince, replaced the world’s longest serving foreign minister, streamlined decision making, and created two powerful committees to oversee defense and economic issues. He also promoted his 29-year-old son to be minister of defense and gave Prince Muhammad bin Salman command of Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen. The changes mark a historic shift in power from the generation of princes who took the kingdom from a desolate, poor and isolated outback in the Arabian Peninsula, transforming it into a global energy giant and most powerful state in the Arab world, to a new royal generation that has grown up with incredible wealth.

Abdallah ruled the kingdom for 20 years, first as crown prince after his brother Fahd had a debilitating stroke in 1995 and then as king when Fahd passed away. He was a cautious reformer by Saudi standards who pursued a risk-averse foreign policy. When Iran sponsored a terrorist attack on US Air Force barracks in Khobar in 1996, for example, Abdallah was careful not to let the attack escalate into a war with Iran. He managed the difficult days after the 9/11 attacks , when the US-Saudi relationship was at risk of unraveling after reports that 15 of the 19 attackers were Saudis – then quietly opposed President George Bush’s war in Iraq, which Abdallah worried would only strengthen Iran’s influence in Iraq. Abdallah outlived two crown princes, Sultaan and Nayef, and had appointed his half-brother Prince Muqrin to be third in line behind Salman.

Salman initially put Muqrin in the crown prince’s position when Abdallah died, but then for reasons never explained removed him and put Muhammad bin Nayef in the job. MBN would become the first of his generation to succeed to the throne. At 55, he is known for resisting Al Qaeda’s attempt to overthrow the House of Saud from 2003 to 2006. He is also the father of two daughters, without a son as a potential heir.

Prince Muhammad bin Salman is the King’s favorite son and is now both defense minister, third in the line of succession after MBN and chairman of a committee that runs all economic and development issues in the kingdom, including overseeing the energy sector. The king has sent him to St. Petersburg and Paris: In Russia he met with Vladimir Putin and agreed on increased cooperation on nuclear technology, space, and oil issues although details were sparse. In Paris he meet with Francois Hollande to discuss regional issues. Neither Putin nor Hollande has any influence in Yemen, however, which is the prince’s biggest problem.

Educated in the kingdom, with no experience in military affairs or the oil business, MBS is the face of the war in Yemen. From the day the Saudis announced they were initiating Operation Decisive Storm to restore President Abu Rabbuh Hadi to power, Muhammad has been a constant feature in the Saudi media directing the war effort, rallying foreign support, and meeting with his generals to show his hands-on approach. Popular songs have lauded his military genius, and his picture is displayed alongside those of his father and MBN throughout the Kingdom.

Yemen has been a problematic neighbor for Saudi Arabia for decades. King Ibn Saud, the founder of the modern Saudi state, fought a short war with Yemen in 1934 seizing several disputed border regions and incorporating them into Saudi Arabia. After a revolutionary coup backed by Egypt in 1962 that overthrew the Yemeni monarchy, Saudi Arabia backed royalist rebels against the Egyptians. General Ali Abdallah Saleh took power in 1978 and ruled as strong man until the Arab Spring protests in 2011. The Saudis tried to oust him in a civil war in 1995 after he had backed Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in the first Gulf War in 1991.

The Saudis fought several small border conflicts with the rebel group called the Houthis between 2009 and 2011.The Houthis are Zaydi Shia who opposed Saleh then and sought greater autonomy for themselves in northern Yemen along the Saudi border. The Houthis outfought both the Saudis and Saleh’s army in these conflicts. When the Arab Spring brought a massive popular movement to oust Saleh, the Saudis pressed him to turn power over to then Vice President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi whom the Saudis assumed they could control. Last year the Houthis and Saleh turned against Hadi, making their own alliance to take power. Assisted by pro-Saleh loyalists in the army, the Houthis took Sanaa in September 2014, then the major Red Sea port of Hodeida and by February were marching on the southern port of Aden, the last stronghold for Hadi who fled to Riyadh.

The Saudis had long accused the Houthis of links to Iran – when they took Sanaa, Houthis opened direct air flights to Tehran, offered Iran port facilities in Hodeida and agreed to a lucrative oil deal. For the new king and his ambitious son, Iran was acquiring too much influence in Saudi Arabia’s soft southwest underbelly. Tehran already had gained preeminence in Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, now a fourth Arab capital was tilting toward Tehran. For the Iranians it was a cheap victory – a handful of advisors and diplomatic support to fellow Shia bogged Saudi Arabia down in a quagmire in Yemen.

Riyadh gave Washington only a few hours advance notice of the war and the king snubbed US President Obama’s invitation to Camp David, sending MBN and MBS instead. The Saudis suspect that Washington is obsessed with getting a nuclear deal with Iran and pays too little attention to Iranian subversion. Nonetheless, the United States is providing logistical and intelligence support for the Saudi war campaign.

King Salman rallied Saudi Arabia’s traditional allies behind the war. Gulf Cooperation Council members, except Oman, joined the war effort as did fellow monarchies Jordan and Morocco. Egypt, which depends heavily on Saudi and GCC subsidies, joined the naval blockade of Yemen. Pakistan, a long-time Saudi ally, refused to supply combat-tested ground troops. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif turned the issue over to the Pakistani parliament which unanimously voted not to send the army to fight in Yemen.

Without Pakistani ground troops, Operation Decisive Storm was anything but decisive. The Saudis have settled in for a stalemate. The Saudis control the air and sea, the Houthis and Saleh control most of Yemen’s cities. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has taken control of Yemen’s far-east Hadramaut province where a drone killed its leader this month. The United Nations has tried to broker a ceasefire, bringing the parties together in Geneva for talks that failed to solve the underlying clash for power. Meanwhile, the Yemeni people are facing a humanitarian disaster due to the Saudi blockade which keeps out food, oil and other essential supplies.

The Yemeni war has become the defining issue of Salman’s young tenure in office and especially of his young son. The king needs to show results but so far has none. Saudis have rallied behind the flag publicly, but in private there are growing doubts about his judgment and his protégé. A generation of Yemenis will grow up remembering the bombing of their country and a brutal blockade. They will want revenge.

In 1964, the royal family and clerical establishment deposed then King Saud after losing confidence in his leadership in fighting the Egyptians in Yemen. King Salman was one of the beneficiaries of the rise of King Faysal to power in the early 1960s, appointed Governor of Riyadh where he spent the next 50 years. It will be deeply ironic if Yemen is the source of another king’s fall from grace.

*Bruce Riedel is senior fellow and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, part of Brookings’ new Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. In addition, Riedel serves as a senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy. He retired in 2006 after 30 years of service at the Central Intelligence Agency. He is the author of Avoiding Armageddon: America, India and Pakistan to the Brink and Back and Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad. Click here to read an excerpt.

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Letter From Cuban President Raul Castro To US President Obama

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Following is the letter sent on Wednesday by Cuban President Raul Castro Ruz to US President Barack Obama on the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations.

Mr. President:

Consistent with the announcements made on December 17, 2014, and the high level discussions between our two governments, I am pleased to address this letter to you in order to confirm that the Republic of Cuba has agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations with the United States of America and open permanent diplomatic missions in our respective countries on July 20, 2015.

In making this decision, Cuba is encouraged by the reciprocal intention to develop respectful and cooperative relations between our two peoples and governments. Cuba is likewise inspired by the principles and purposes enshrined in the United Nations Charter and International Law, namely, sovereign equality, the settlement of disputes by peaceful means, to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, non-interference in matters which are within the domestic jurisdiction of any State, the development of friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and cooperation in solving international problems and in promoting and encouraging respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms for all.

All of the above is consistent with the spirit and the norms established in the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of April 18, 1961, and the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations of April 24, 1963, which both the Republic of Cuba and the United States of America are Parties to, and will govern diplomatic and consular relations between the Republic of Cuba and the United States of America.

H.E. Mr. Barack H. Obama

President of the United States of America

I avail myself of this opportunity to express to you, Mr. President, the assurances of my consideration.

Raúl Castro Ruz

(Original signed)

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Egypt On Verge Of Becoming Another Iraq Thanks To Modern-Day Pharaoh – OpEd

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On the dawn of the coup in Egypt I wrote an article in which I described Mr. Al-Sisi as a manic depressive. At the time I didn’t know how serious his condition was, but I know now that I massively underestimated it. The pharaoh has just recently described himself to be receiving instructions from God, but apparently he too had underestimated Al-Sisi. The man is now acting like God as he now is clearly dictating who can live and who can die in Egypt.

All this is happening while the Americans and the Europeans are on the sidelines cheerleading. If this man stays in power for just another six months, Egypt could become another Arab Spring that has turned out to be a nightmare. In fact, if the army continues to abide by Al-Sisi’s wishes, it can no longer be ruled out that Egypt could deteriorate to the extent that we see in Iraq and Syria.

But far from being God, Al-Sisi is in a direct collision course with the Al-Mighty God.

One thing that is obvious for most sane people is that the former military man understands very little of politics. What is becoming obvious now is that he is also ignorant of his own game. He has no idea how to carry out successful military operations and the evidence for that is the fact that he is losing many men — despite being confronted by only a few hundred insurgents and within a very limited geographical area.

Most of the Egyptian military operations in recent days are in a very small area called Sheikh Zuwaid and Rafah and despite his military superiority on the ground, as well as manpower and air power, Al-Sisi has still managed to lose hundreds of soldiers in a very short span of time.

Because he lacks warfare know-how, Al-Sisi has to consult the Israelis. The latest attack on unarmed Muslim Brotherhood figures has all the hallmarks of the MOSAD and the IDF. Even the destruction of hundreds of homes at the Egyptian-Israeli border earlier also suggests that Israel may have been the brain behind the action. Israel’s obsession with the tunnels of Hamas and Hezbollah is definitely what made Al-Sisi take a similar action. Nevertheless, what Al-Sisi failed to realize was that Israel’s destruction of the tunnels has always failed to destroy the will of its enemies. To the contrary, it has made its foes more resilient.

But perhaps the most dangerous matter is that Al-Sisi understands even less of Islam and Islamists. Whilst Islamists in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere have been condemned by many Muslim scholars and the public, the situation in Egypt is far different. In Egypt, a coup against local moderate Islamists in their millions took place and what followed was a huge mass movement against it. That is to say millions of Egyptians wanted to be ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood only to be faced by indiscriminate killings, torture and arbitrary incarcerations. It could be argued that these serious and bloody infringements make it an Islamic duty to fight back and resist. In other words, Al-Sisi has managed to create conditions for claims of a legitimate jihad. If this is the case, then Al-Sisi would be the first leader in relation to the Arab Spring who has made the proper conditions for a strong case for jihadists to claim the right to take action.

The recent cold-blooded murders of the thirteen unarmed Muslim Brotherhood leaders are just, for a lack of better words, the icing on the cake. In essence, this is the most direct and clear declaration of war against Islamists and their millions of sympathizers. What is missing for Egypt to tip towards an all out war is armament. By now Al-Sisi’s opposition is moving towards the belief that the only way to deal with him is to prepare for war. It might take some time for the resistance to be well armed, but that is a route that cannot be avoided at this point and when that happens Egypt will bleed heavily and for a long time.

When the situation gets out of control, as it surely headed, Hamas will most likely get involved, not least for the blockade they have been suffering from under Al-Sisi for quite some time.

There are three types of Muslims. There are those whom can be called anti-Jihad. This is the category that doesn’t want anything to do with it and are perhaps the majority. There are those who are a minority, but who are most determined and can and do have the most impact. This is the group of “hard-line” Muslims who would respond to any call for Jihad anywhere and anytime – thus if the situation in Egypt doesn’t change one would expect that not only Egyptians would be involved.

The final type of Muslims are the moderates. This is a group that would respond to a call for Jihad if and when they deem the conditions to be right. That is to say that they would be involved only when they feel that religiously speaking they ought to be involved. What Al-Sisi has managed to do is to get this group involved.

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China Sees ‘High Possibility’ Of Iran Nuclear Deal Soon

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(RFE/RL) — Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said there is a “high possibility” that Iran and major powers will agree to a comprehensive nuclear accord in the coming days.

Wang was speaking to reporters on July 2 on arrival in Vienna, where he joined counterparts from Iran, Britain, Germany, France, and the United States.

Wang said all sides need to make “positive efforts,” adding that there are still “some important and sensitive issues which no one can shy away from.”

Negotiators from Iran and the six world powers are working to strike a deal under which Tehran would curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

The parties have given themselves until July 7 to reach agreement.

The six powers want limits on Iran’s nuclear programs that could have a military use. Tehran denies it is pursuing atomic weapons.

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Egypt: New Emergency Law, Airstrikes In Sinai

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Egyptian airstrikes continued overnight in the Sinai, where Islamic State coordinated attacks yesterday left over 100 soldiers and police dead.

“We will continue until the Sinai is clear of terrorist presence”, an army spokesman said, indicating that the operations will continue over the next weeks in the Sinai Peninsula, on the border with Israel and the Gaza Strip, presided on the Egyptian side by Islamist armed groups, and where emergency laws introduced in October will be extended.

In an emergency meeting called last night in Cairo by President Abdel Fattah al Sissi, the cabinet approved a new anti-terror law that foresees direct trials and measures to block funding to armed groups.

Justice minister Ibrahimn Henady in the past days announced that the new law will heighten penalties for those found to be members of terrorist organizations and will give more powers to investigating magistrates.

Since the ousting by the military of Mohammed Morsi on 30 June 2014, a systematic crackdown has been launched against his supporters and members of the Muslim Brotherhood, declared a terrorist organization by the new authorities. Hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood members have been convicted over the past months in mass trials and even Morsi is facing trial on various charges, also facing the death penalty.

The public persecutor Hisham Barakat was killed three days ago in a bomb attack in Cairo area of Heliopolis. Amid growing tension in the country, human rights and civil society groups have denounced a mounting campaign of intimidation against bloggers, journalists, activists and opposition members, in the name of national security.

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