By Divya Kumar Soti*

As India and Pakistan were deliberating upon the schedule of NSA level talks in pursuance of the Ufa Joint Statement, three Pakistani terrorists carried out carnage in Dinapur, an Indian town in Gurdaspur district near the India-Pakistan border. Terrorists donning army uniforms planted pressure IEDs on the Amritsar-Pathankot railway line before opening random fire on a Jammu bound bus, hijacked a Maruti 800 car to reach Dinanagar Police Station where they opened fire on a nearby hospital killing civilians and thereafter burst into the police station killing policemen on duty. The ensuing encounter in which SWAT team of Punjab Police (with Indian Army units on standby for backup) was able to neutralize all three terrorists lasted for around 11 hours. The terror attack left three civilians and four policemen dead.

All this reads like an account of 26/11 where terrorists after entering Mumbai targeted public transport facilities, hospitals, hijacked cars and planted IEDs before getting holed up in their final target destination. The data obtained from GPS devices recovered from the Gurdaspur attackers has revealed that they started from Pakistan’s Narowal, infiltrated through the International Border in Jammu region and then crossed into Gurdaspur. Dinanagar Police Station was their pre-determined target, according to GPS data. Investigators suspect that the attack was carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists.

This attack in Punjab was preceded by information surfacing over the last many months revealing the Inter Service Intelligence’s reinvigorated interest in igniting trouble in Punjab by activating Khalistani modules. However, for one reason or the other these attempts proved to be abortive. On September 18, 2014, Indian security agencies nabbed most wanted Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) militant Ratandeep Singh from the Indo-Nepal border near Gorakhpur (Uttar Pradesh) when he was trying to enter into India. Ratandeep Singh was living in Pakistan since the early ‘90s and recently formed a separate militant organization, the Bhindrawale Tiger Force under the guidance of ISI to revive militant activities in Punjab with specific task of carrying out targeted political killings. A Pakistani passport was also recovered from Ratandeep Singh. In November 2014, Khalistan Liberation Force (KLF) chief Harminder Singh alias Mintoo was arrested in Thailand and was extradited to India. He told Indian interrogators that Punjabi speaking ISI officers organized a training camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border to train UK-based Khalistani militants.

In January this year, Thai authorities nabbed and extradited to India another top Khalistani terrorist Jagtar Singh Tara. Jagtar Singh Tara is head of Khalistan Tiger Force (KTF) and was involved in the assassination of Punjab chief minister Beant Singh. Both Jagtar Singh and Harminder Singh revealed ISI sponsored plans to recruit Sikh youngsters based in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries for furthering militancy in Punjab. Jagtar Singh specifically revealed ISI’s plans to smuggle weapons into Punjab using the Narowal route, the same route which was taken by Gurdaspur attackers, through cooperation between Khalistani and Islamist terror groups.

Apart from this, the ISI has regularly tried to push narcotic substances and weapons into Punjab by using cross-border drug pedalling networks. On July 14, 2015, days before the Gurdaspur attack, the Border Security Force (BSF) shot dead a Pakistani intruder during an infiltration bid in Ferozepur sector while his two associates managed to flee back into Pakistani territory. BSF recovered a mobile phone with Pakistani SIM card from the body of the infiltrator. According to BSF IG (Punjab Frontier Range), the BSF has this year seized 57 kg heroin besides guns and cartridges from Pakistani intruders.

However, these infiltration attempts from the Pakistani side are not just limited to J&K and Punjab. On March 2, 2014, BSF personnel shot dead an intruder trying to sneak into India from Pakistan in Raisinghgarh sector in Rajasthan. Similarly, on April 24, 2011, BSF shot dead another Pakistani intruder in Rajasthan in Sri Ganganagar Sector. In March-April 2009, three Pakistani intruders were shot dead by BSF in Sri Ganganagar Sector. BSF said that they suspect these attempts were “dry runs”.

All this data makes clear that ISI has been trying hard to stir up trouble in Punjab as well as has tried to explore new infiltration routes into India through International Border in Punjab and Rajasthan. Pakistan is well aware of that fact that terrorism in Punjab essentially grew out from the muddied politics of the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. Due to a series of successful political initiatives taken by India since the 1989 general elections, there is no political fault line in Punjab which Pakistan can explore to revive Khalistani militancy on the previous scale. Still the ISI has tried to commission targeted killings of political figures in Punjab, as has been revealed by the above mentioned militants nabbed by Indian security agencies. But the limitations remain as Punjabi society has conclusively rejected the mainstreaming of terrorism.

Technically, using Islamist groups to attack targets in Punjab takes away whatever thin plausible deniability with which Pakistan tries to sell proxy war in J&K to the international community by calling it indigenous separatism, though over the last decade it has largely been taken over by foreign militants from Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). But after the fizzling out of militancy in Punjab in mid ‘90s, Khalistani groups have lost the specialized warfare capabilities and the ISI’s attempts to revive them over the last year or so have proved to be abortive.

Pakistan’s military intelligence establishment is in the habit of sponsoring terror attacks with low plausible deniability quotient to further its larger strategic aims and to send warning signals to stakeholders from Kabul to New Delhi. They have developed it as a tactic and keep employing it from time to time. Over the last few weeks, generals in Rawalpindi have successfully pushed Afghan Taliban’s claim to power share in Kabul while the Taliban militants have gained new strongholds in the north and burst into district headquarters at various places. After flushing out of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) militants from tribal areas, Pakistan’s Punjab, which is a stronghold of LeT largely obedient to GHQ, is likely to emerge as the new centre of jihadism in the natural course of things. With an edge in Afghanistan, almost successful crackdown on Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Karachi and some peace due to culling of TTP, the Pakistani Army may be looking forward to expanding the theatre of proxy war against India.

*Divya Kumar Soti is an independent national security and strategic affairs analyst based in India. He can be contacted at contributions@spsindia.in

By Major General P.K .Chakravorty (Retd)*

The United States finally left Saigon on April 30, 1975. Relations between the two countries saw an upward swing with the easing of sanctions by then president Bill Clinton in 1995 and opening of the US Embassy in Hanoi. Thereafter relations strengthened between the two countries, and today Vietnam is a member of the Trans Pacific Partnership. It has taken more than four decades for relations to be normalised leading to the visit of Vietnamese. Vietnam crossed the rubicon – with Nguyen Phu Trong, the General Secretary of the Communist Party, meeting President Barack Obama at the White House on July 7, 2015. The meeting signified the new trade and security relationship between the two countries. The two countries are moving close informally to tackle issues in the South China Sea. The US, much to the displeasure of China, has always spoken of freedom of navigation in the high seas. The present meeting is a step forward in easing strategic tensions in the South China Sea.

Situation in Vietnam

The Communist Party of Vietnam elected the Eleventh Party Congress in 2011. The tenth plenum of the Party Congress was held in January 2015. Right from the inception of this Congress the leadership has demonstrated its flexibility within its framework. The party has started gauging public opinion by limited voting on key issues affecting the country.

The party firmly remains wedded to its core principles. The present General Secretary of the party has emphasised the need to revamp governmental framework, policies, structure and system, fight against red tape and corruption as also make the government more efficient. The party would like to steer the Vietnamese market economy with a socialist orientation. In this field they would like state owned enterprises to run efficiently and be sustainable.

With regard to foreign policy, the Communist Party of Vietnam would like to continue a multilateral foreign policy. The Chinese oil rig incident in May 2014 and current naval exercises in the South China Sea as also China’s pressure over issues pertaining to the South China Sea will not see Vietnam deviate from its principled approach on foreign policy. Neither is an alliance with the United States on the cards nor is China being declared an adversary.

However, a new security relationship is beginning to shape with the United States. The year 2015 is proving to be a challenging one for Vietnam to revitalise its economy and to manage its external relations smoothly.

It is pertinent to note that Vietnam organised the 132nd Inter Parliamentary Union Meeting from March 28 to April 1, 2015 in Hanoi which was attended by parliamentarians from 133 countries. The meetings were extremely successful. The subjects discussed pertained to water resources, threats to peace and aspects of security, including cyber security. The meetings focussed on the common theme of ‘Sustainable Development Goals: Turning Words into Actions’. Vietnam was praised for immaculate organisation as also the country was an exemplary model in terms of poverty reduction, disaster mitigation, sustainable development and has taken steps towards combating climate change. The delegates agreed to these issues and the joint statement primarily mentioned these aspects.

Management of Challenges

The recently conducted Inter Parliamentary Union reflected Vietnam’s globalised approach. This is due to the steps taken by Vietnam to liberalise its thoughts over the last 29 years. The Vietnamese have strained every sinew to follow a market economy leading to the development of the country since 1986.

Vietnam made a shift from its highly centralised planned economy to a socialist modelled market economy. Over this period the economy has seen rapid growth rising to a nominal GDP of $188 billion and nominal per capita income of $2,073. A bilateral trade agreement signed with the United States (US) on July 13, 2000 permitted Vietnamese goods to enter the US market. In 2001, the Communist Party of Vietnam approved a 10 year economic plan and enhanced the role of the private sector. Vietnam was officially became a member of the World Trade Organisation on January 11, 2007. This further liberalised the economy but Vietnam had to face stiff competition in exporting its goods. Despite this Vietnam continued to maintain a steady growth between 5 to 7 percent.

Currently the government has set out a growth rate of 6.2% for 2015. Further, inflation will be maintained at 5% resulting in reduction of poverty by another 1.7 % and creation of additional 1.6 million new job opportunities. The rise recorded in recent months is driven by strong exports and a booming manufacturing sector. Experts feel that to reach a growth rate of 6.2% there would be a need to boost investment to the tune of 33-35% of GDP. Further Vietnam is pushing ahead with its plan of disinvesting its 1,000 state owned enterprises. The Ministry of Planning and Investment was asked by the government to withdraw its proposal for using the state budget to settle bad debts of state-owned enterprises. It is estimated that the bad debt works out to $80 billion.

Further the government wants to tackle corruption which exists in finance, banking, land management, natural resources exploitation and public investment. Despite these irritants the Vietnamese economy has stabilised. The forecasts predict that in the short run Vietnamese economy will grow at a slightly slower speed and will accelerate to high growths in the long run once the shortcomings are addressed.

Vietnam’s security depends on the resolution of the South China Sea dispute with China. The General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong visited China in the second week of April 2015. On April 7, 2015 he held discussions with the Chinese President Xi Jinping. A joint communiqué reported by Chinese news media Xinhua stated that both countries had discussions on issues pertaining to the South China Sea. The two countries agreed to use the existing border resolution mechanisms to look for a basic and lasting resolution which both countries should accept. It is pertinent to note that both the countries have resolved their land border dispute by 1999 and are capable of solving problems amicably.

However, China has been claiming almost 90 percent of the South China Sea which has compelled the Philippines to go to court and Vietnam placing its troops on the Spratly islands. Vietnam in conjunction with other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) wants a Code of Conduct which will enable freedom of navigation in international waters. The claims of these countries must be peacefully settled and there should be no forceful occupation or transgression in these disputed waters. The United States has supported its stance by declaring the need for freedom of navigation in the high seas.

Assistance by India

Vietnam is a strategic partner of India and friendship between the two countries is intensifying exponentially. India has offered 18 Lines of Credit and is helping Vietnam in its economic development. Vietnam has been gracious to offer us oil sites for exploration in the South China Sea. The detailed plan for Tatas to build a thermal power plant at Soc Trang costing around $1.8 billion is being finalised. India is also trying to improve the bilateral trade between the two countries.

India has taken a positive stand on the freedom of navigation in international waters which lends support to all countries having maritime claims in the East China Sea and South China Sea. India has clarified this issue in numerous forum and stated that maritime disputes should be settled as per International norms. India has been careful in exploring oil in South China Sea in areas away from the Nine Dash Line. This has ensured that there is no exploration in disputed areas.

China currently continues to assert her claims particularly at the tactical level despite her peaceful strategic reassurances. This has led to strategic cooperation between India, Japan, Vietnam, Australia and the US. Vietnam and India are managing their challenges smoothly.

Conclusion

Vietnam has been managing its challenges in 2015 effectively. This has resulted in higher economic growth rate and an incident free situation in the South China Sea. Further Vietnam has demonstrated its capability to conduct the 132nd Inter parliamentary Union meeting attended by 133 nations successfully. This indicates its strength to understand the nuances of diplomacy along with economics and strategy. The meeting between the US president and the General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party marks a high point in the strategic relations between the two countries.

*Major General P.K .Chakravorty (Retd) is a former ADG Artillery, has served as the Defence Attaché in Vietnam from 1996 to 1999 and closely observes issues in the Asia Pacific.. He can be reached at editor@spsindia.in

The Sri Lanka Religious Conference holding a news conference has called on all voters to refrain from electing to Parliament groups that speak profanity and are aggressive at the upcoming election, .

The Ven. Prof. Bellanwila Wimalarathana Thera said that they were sending representatives to Parliament not to speak obscene language and exchange scuffles. He mentioned that an intellectual disciplined group should be elected for the enactment of laws and regulations and to craft policies for the country. This he said is the prime responsibility of the people.

Archbishop of Colombo Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith said that political parties based on communalism and religions are not suitable for the country. He honestly believed that the country would divide through the existence of such parties. These changes should be effected if anyone loves the country.

Buddhist, Catholic, Islam and Hindu religious representatives also expressed views at this news briefing.

General Secretary of the National Christian Council W.P. Ebeneizer Joseph said that they particularly considered the qualifications of those who enter the Sri Lankan Parliament. Their character should also be taken into consideration. He mentioned that well educated persons should be sent to the legislature.

In collaboration with the General Commissariat of Information of the Spanish National Police Force, German police officers arrested a Jihadist at midday on Tuesday in Stuttgart (Germany), who had fled Spain following the latest police operation in which a DAESH recruiter was arrested in Arrecife (Lanzarote).

The detainee was subject to a outstanding European Arrest Warrant (EAW) issued by Central Investigation Court number 5 of the Spanish National High Court.

This individual had been under investigation by the General Commissariat of Information of the National Police Force for several months, due to his relationship with other people under investigation in various operations that had led to the dismantling of part of the recruitment apparatus of DAESH in Spain.

The detainee maintained a very active presence on social networks on which he displayed a markedly radical profile, portraying and publicising extremist Islamist doctrines and pro-violence actions carried out by terrorist groups currently operating in Syria and Iraq (Jabhat al-Nusra and DAESH).

Among other activities, he was a notably active recruiter through his profiles on the Internet, in which he openly declared the benefits and privileges of forming part of the army of fighters of the terrorist group DAESH.

In his daily activities, he sought out and mixed with other individuals with a profile as radical as his own. Through these relations, the detainee had created bonds of friendship that had enabled him to form part of a trusted group whose main activity was to recruit Jihadist volunteers with the aim of sending them off to Syria or Iraq.

The detainee had expressed his clear intention of travelling to Syria to join up to the ranks of DAESH, as well as his high degree of influence over other individuals through social networks, who he had invited to join him on this trip as from the start of July.

After the operation carried out on 7 July in Arrecife (Lanzarote), during which the National Police Force arrested a Spanish woman accused of recruiting young girls and adolescents and of facilitating their travel to areas controlled by DAESH, the detainee decided to flee Spain and travel to Germany. As from this point in time, the General Commissariat of Information of the Spanish National Police Force activated all the police cooperation channels with the German BKA, which led to Tuesday’s arrest of this Jihadist in the German city of Stuttgart.

With this latest arrest, a very active individual in terms of his role publicising the ideology of the terrorist group DAESH, recruiting new Jihadi fighters and undertaking radical activity on the social networks and in his immediate surroundings has been neutralised.

The operation remains ongoing.

Hundreds of followers and relatives of Pakistan’s most feared Islamic militant leader, Malik Ishaq, attended his burial under tight security, at his hometown of Rahim Yar Khan in central Pakistan on July 30. The mourners included members of Ishaq’s Sunni militant group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). A day earlier Ishaq had been gunned down along with 13 other militants, including his two sons, during an assault on a police convoy in which he was being moved. Pakistani police claimed that the assault on its convoy by the militants was aimed at freeing Ishaq. It is largely believed that the incident was an extra-judicial killing of a hardened Sunni leader who had spent a good part of last two decades getting in and out of jail.

The elimination of Ishaq by the Pakistan police raises issues in two domains flowing mainly from the answers to questions, on the manner and the reasons for which he was killed. The first points to the inadequacies of Pakistan’s judicial system; its inability to bring to book home-grown terror organisations – hindered to an extent by the support such groups receive, especially those operating with a religious or sectarian agenda, from within the Pakistani society and more disturbing from the covert security establishment.

The second, points to the dispensability of such groups (and their leaders) when they lose their utility in relation to the state’s changing internal and external security policies. The policy change maybe brought about by the need to conform to an international treaty obligation or something more profound such as discarding a certain policy direction; no targeting of Shias or cross-border activities in a certain neighbouring country.

The ‘extra judicial’ killing of Malik Ishaq and nature of LeJ’s activities over last almost 20 years straddles both these issues; ills of Pakistan’s judicial system and the possible irrelevance of the LeJ in the short term, under the policies of the current Pakistani security dispensation. This article examines the latter.

The Killing

Some analysts’ view Ishaq’s killing (including that of his two sons) as an extrajudicial slaying, disposal of an asset that has outlived its utility, the closing of a chapter; an insignificant event. Many felt that the writing had been on the wall after LeJ’s other co-founder Akram Lahori had been executed by Pakistani authorities in January 2015, amongst the spate of hangings carried out by the Pakistani establishment post the Peshawar tragedy, and that of Usman Saifullah Kurd, the head of LJ’s Balochistan chapter, by the Frontier Corps in Quetta in February.

Though it is a distinct possibility that Ishaq’s killing was mere ‘retiring’ of a redundant asset, its analysis is important because of two aspects. One, LeJ stands out tall amongst the Pakistani terror groups for its single minded targeting of Shias – within Pakistan and across the border in Afghanistan. Ishaq, along with Riaz Basra and Akram Lahori, founded the LeJ in 1996 after breaking from the Sunni militant group, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP). The LeJ is virulently anti-Shia and since inception has carried on a relentless campaign of suicide bombings, armed assaults and kidnappings against Shia targets. In Pakistan, it has also been repeatedly targeting Iranian nationals including diplomats. LeJ was proscribed as a terror group by Pakistan on August 14, 2001.

Two, it received funding from outside the country, with which it motivated other groups, including those based and operating in Balochistan, to secure their assistance in its targeting of Shias. Hence killing of Ishaq could indicate a perceptible shift in Pakistani policy – a decision to create an environment to improve relations with Iran and at the same time shut a major conduit of Saudi funding for sectarian activities. Some see it as a strategic attempt to prevent Pakistan from being the staging ground of proxy sectarian warfare between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Impact

The killing of Ishaq is possibly a trigger to bring about a leadership change in LeJ resulting in a shift in the nature of its activities, both inside Pakistan and outside the country. These activities maybe diametrically opposite in substance, as was in the case of Tehrik-e-Taliban Punjab, which recently gave up violence inside Pakistan (and made peace with the security establishment) but retained its ‘jihadist’ outlook towards India. LeJ too maybe expected to take this path. However the impact of its transformation will be felt more in Afghanistan.

The Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), the political arm of the LeJ, released statements to the media assuring that it would not protest Ishaq’s death. It describing itself as a “peace loving” party and went on to disown Ishaq’s sectarian militancy. Yet, Arif Jamal, an independent US-based journalist and author, is of the view that the Pakistani military has been paving the way for the Afghan Salafists to replace the Deobandi Taliban in Afghanistan. The Deobandi Taliban groups, such as LeJ, both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, have been drifting towards Salafism and joining the Islamic State (IS). According to his sources Ishaq was refusing to accept the IS and had developed serious differences with the Pakistani military establishment over supporting Salafism.

Security analysts appear to be divided right down the middle with respect to Pakistan’s chosen course of action, particular post-Peshawar and the launch of operation Zarb-e-azb. There are those who see no change in the Pakistani approach to counter terrorism and those that feel post-Yemen, Pakistan would like to re-invent itself as a moderate Islamic nation providing equally space to the Shias, thereby balancing its relations with Iran and subsequently the West.

So is Malik Ishaq’s killing another step by the Pakistani security establishment towards abandonment of the ‘good Taliban, bad Taliban’ policy? Even if it is, in the case of India, the ‘good Taliban’ will still be the one that showed its presence at Dinanagar, Gurdaspur last week.

*Monish Gulati is Associate Director (Strategic Affairs) with the Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted at m_gulati_2001@yahoo.com. This article appeared in South Asia Monitor.

By N. Sathiya Moorthy*

For the first time in decades, it looks as if the Tamils cannot be blamed for divisiveness that has sneaked back into Sri Lanka’s body politic and larger society as a whole. The August 17 parliamentary polls has the potential to divide the Sinhala majority as only the two Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) insurgencies had done – thankfully without any ideological mooring or militant intent, at least just now.

By declaring that he would not let fellow Sri Lanka Freedom Party-United People’s Freedom Alliance (SLFP-UPFA) candidate and defeated predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa to become prime minister, if the combine got a parliamentary majority, President Maithripala Sirisena may have opened one more Pandora’s Box, where none seemingly existed.

President Sirisena has a commitment to protect his mandate, yes. He also has a point when he implies that the Rajapaksa mandate from two previous polls – the ‘Mahinda Chintanaya’ I & II? — had been exhausted. Yet, if in the parliamentary polls the people vote the SLFP-UPFA and the elected parliamentarians – including possible crossovers – were to name Rajapaksa their political choice, would it mean that the new mandate had superseded the old one?

President Sirisena seems to be careful not to mingle the powers of the nation’s executive president to invite or not invite an individual of choice to be sworn in prime minister. In January, soon after President Sirisena took over as the head of state and government, United National Party (UNP) rival, Ranil Wickremesinghe was sworn in as prime minister.

It was a part of the Sirisena poll promise – hence his electoral mandate too. It did not belong in the Constitution or parliamentary procedures. Hence for President Sirisena to tell the nation, through a telecast, that his decision to dissolve parliament flowed from a ‘conspiracy’ to make Rajapaksa the prime minister by entering him through the ‘National List’ defeats his own pre-poll commitment of ordering fresh polls at the end of 100 days in office.

If one mandate can be flouted, others too can be. The Rajapaksa faction in the SLFP-UPFA has argued that there was no way they could have brought in Rajapaksa to parliament through the National List. As pointed out, the latter is frozen at the time of nominations for the previous polls, held in March 2010.

If nothing else, given the constitutional complexities that could be anticipated after the parliamentary polls, President Sirisena should have a fresh look at his team of advisors. They are treading on unknown territory, constitutional territories unknown to the nation, and its polity too.

In declaring that he would not entertain Mahinda Rajapaksa for prime ministership, Sirisena has not come up with any constitutionally viable arguments. They are based on his poll promises – both in word and spirit. Yet, they are based on his role as SLFP and UPFA president, both by a default clause in the SLFP constitution that Rajapaksa had amended in his favour when in power and adapted by the UPFA without any second thought.

Ruing the day…

Rajapaksa should be ruing his day now, maybe. Yet, for President Sirisena to claim that Rajapaksa had not allowed the emergence of other senior leaders in the party, even while true, could fly on the face of the constitutional scheme. The right and responsibility to elect the prime minister rests with parliament, neither with the parent party nor even the president.

If the situation so arises that Rajapaksa and his followers were no more in the SLFP and/or UPFA, yet could muster a parliamentary majority, what could President Sirisena be expected to do? In critical situations as this one, he should refrain from making highly politicised statements of the kind.

If nothing else, the nation cannot afford another spell of political uncertainty, confusion and contradictions at the top, as had happened in the J.R. Jayewardene-Premadasa era or the Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga-Ranil saga. The former was intra-party confrontation, the latter inter-party rivalry. Depending on what the voters have to say on August 17, this could turn out to be something like the latter, but could be worse.

It’s not unlikely that President Sirisena feels uncomfortable to work with Rajapaksa if the latter were to be elected prime minister. It’s commendable that he has said that he would not take sides in the elections, indicating that he might not even campaign for his SLFP-UPFA candidates.

Rajitha cross-over

For the Sirisena camp wanting the world to believe that he had all along been against a Rajapaksa return, it cannot be relied upon wholly. True, media reports had claimed that Sirisena as party chief had climbed down and accepted Rajapaksa for parliamentary polls, but not for the prime minister’s post.

If that were true, the likes of Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne, the cabinet spokesman and possibly the closest Sirisena aide in the party and government, would not have crossed over to the UNP for contesting the parliamentary polls. It happened after news leaked out that Rajapaksa would lead the SLFP-UPFA list for Kurunagela district.

If the opposition of the likes of Rajitha Senaratne was to Rajapaksa’s prime ministerial elevation, and not to his being given party nomination for the parliamentary elections, there was another way. They too could have stayed back like a few others and found a place in the party/combine’s nomination list.

The list shows that it was a ‘compromise’ between the two factions in the party, almost from the beginning. Not only has some Sirisena loyalists, including those that had jumped the Rajapaksa camp after the presidential poll, found their names, some of Rajapaksa’s loyalists too had found their names missing.

Clearly, President Sirisena had stood his ground on dubious characters from the past, and the Rajpaaksa team had yielded. Yet, the list(s), including the National List, reflects the ground reality that the Rajapaksa has superior numbers inside the party and UPFA combine than that of President Sirisena’s.

Ethnic-Divide…

Sirisena came to power not just on the mandate of ‘good governance’ alone. Anyway, it applies to the whole nation, just not the Sinahala-Buddhist majority. On the more specific issue of ethnic divide, he had personified the moderate Tamils hopes and aspirations of the Tamils to a greater extent, and of the Muslims, as well.

It could still be argued that as candidate, Sirisena did not promise anything specific, either to the Tamils or Muslims, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), other than ousting president Rajapaksa through the democratic process. If he had committed anything in private to the political leaderships of these two communities that had backed him at the time, there did not seem to be any written agreement of the time, unlike possibly in the case of Sarrath Fonseka in 2010.

Yet, in addressing the nation on keeping Mahiinda Rajapaksa out of power, President Sirisena has talked still only about the Sinhala polity and society. Rather, he has reduced it all to the intra-SLFP politics, what with the rest of the UPFA having signed up with Rajapaksa even before it all had begun.

They were continuing with their commitment through the past decade. There has not been anything about the Tamils and Muslims in President Sirisena’s recent outburst against his predecessor. The UNP, though, has talked about power-devolution, now ahead of the parliamentary polls, but the personal views and the political compulsions of President Sirisena also needed to be known in advance for the comfort of these two communities.

Sociological construct

Having quoted his Mahinda Chintanaya(s) whenever it suited him while in office, Rajapaksa should acknowledge that President Sirisena has the right to cite and act on his 100-day programme. That the Sirisena camp did not expect a Rajapaksa bounce back of some kind either before or after the presidential polls until it hit them on their face is a truth that they may now be paying the price for.

The party is over, and the party has begun in true Sri Lankan form and spirit. The current predicament facing the majority Sinhala polity in general and the more hard-liner of the two, between the SLFP and the UNP in particular, has a demographic element, as a sociological construct has remained an accompanying factor in any political discourse of the nature, more so in Sri Lanka.

It’s all a part of the post-war transition, for which the nation had not prepared itself for. It’s inevitability of the kind that the monolith LTTE had faced when the cease-fire agreement (CFA) triggered a comfort zone, leading in turn to the ‘Karuna split’ in the East.

Independent of the credit going to the government of the day, the ‘Karuna split’ also was a reflection of the inherent demographic distinctions and dissensions in the larger Tamil community. It pushed those differences to the background, in the face of a ‘common enemy’. Yet, the sociological unity that the LTTE had hoped to achieve among the caste and status-conscious Tamil community stopped just there. It refused to penetrate into the East, where the Tamils had not found anything in common with the uppity Northern Tamils, until the late S.J.V. Chelvanayagam promised the moon through North, East unity and eastern Trincomalee as the capital of the unified Tamil province.

The SLFP internal feud just now is a struggle for the return of elitism in Sinhala polity. Separately but simultaneously, the JVP insurgencies and the LTTE alongside — and well into post-JVP militancy — had kept the stratified Sinhala-Buddhist society together and divided at the same time.

Demographically, the current struggle within the SLFP-UPFA could be seen as a struggle for and against Sinhala elitism at the same time. At one level, it’s against the Colombo Seven urban elitism of the Ranil, C.B. Kumaratunga kind. At another level, it’s against the Sinhala elitism of the Rajapaksa kind that the Sirisena leadership is seeking to oust and replace.

There may be other leaders and communities wanting to join the fray, and also claim their share in what promised to be ‘collective leadership’ at Independence. The first ‘Opposition alliance of Sinhala-majority and Sinhala majoritarian government’ of 1956, the emergence of the JVP’s motto and methods, replacing it in less than a decade later, all personified this inevitable trickledown effect that democracy promises but seldom delivers.

The August 17 parliamentary polls are thus also about the end – or, continuance – of the ‘ethnic war’ in the Sinhala public mood and mind, and fighting their forgotten internal squabbles from a comfort zone that they had kept in the back-burner for a time. It’s this that, President Sirisena, Rajapaksa and Ranil W., among others, have to keep in their mind much more than their personal egos and political opportunities – in the name of the LTTE, good governance, or Rajapaksa personified, either way.

*N. Sathiya Moorthy is Director, Chennai Chapter of the Observer Research Foundation. He can be reached at: editor@spsindia.in

The world has to wait another 15 months for the election of 45th president of the United States and two more other months for her/his inauguration. Likewise, both Republican and Democratic parties have yet to finalize their nomination, but John Hudak of the Brookings Foundation, has advised all the aspirants of the presidential nomination to form a transition team as soon as possible.

Yes, the top executive of the world’s most powerful military and economy – that has led the longest period of continued peaceful world order only after the Vienna Congress (1815), and has the responsibilities to satisfy the expectations of its fellow citizens, allies, and people all over the world. The leadership of every country on the earth if knows the major vision, policies and programs of the potential candidate with his whole team, it may start creating favorable space for the new administration from the very beginning.

The logic behind Hudak’s suggestion has a striking reason. The new president has to make political appointments of some four thousands people to take responsibilities from similar numbers of officials from the outgoing administration to lead and manage the administration of millions of civilians and military employees. Failures at making right choices for all such appointments “from the highest echelons down to seemingly anonymous, yet critically important, slots”, sends wrong signals among the people in the country and for its allies abroad. This makes the friends and allies of America feel unsecured and challenged while invigorating the enemies to develop their strategies to hit American and allies’ interest based on such initial image.

Not giving proper time to make the backgrounds check of all such political appointments, many times, the presidents and the appointee themselves had to withdraw the names and that has damaged the credibility of the president.
Hudak is also quite right to hint that earlier the presidential candidate organizes his transition team , the more he is supposed to serve her/his duties in a more sensible and responsible way. Undoubtedly, that is a sign of a good leadership. This helps members of the team to start their policy homework, develop strategies and programs for running the administrations, and smoothen the transition.

There is nothing to disagree with John Hudak and a transition team formed earlier cannot be taken as premature or pretentious. If the American public, media, and the opinion builder can see the candidates surrounded by better-qualified aides and advisors with unquestionable integrity, it can better serve the purpose of the candidate and help them at presenting better image among the electorates.

The Experience Verifies Hudak Logic

In his book, Worthy Fights, Leon Panetta the former CIA chief and Secretary of Defense of Obama administration and Chief of Staff during Bill Clinton presidency as well, has mentioned that Bill Clinton had not given “great thought” in selecting his White House staff for such transition. Rather than appointing them by judging their level of expertise and commitment, he collected them hastily and with less consultation. This in result created a mess followed by “structural gaps and some obvious weak spots”.

A White House Chief of Staff for the best service of the president and the country – must be a tough person to lead all his staff focused, disciplined, and result oriented. Every meeting in the White House among the top cabinet officials and their assistants including presidential aides is to be well structured to produce clear decisions and effective implementation of those decisions. This also helps the other major issues move smoothly. But when Bill Clinton missed this chance, the earlier days of his administration were run in a quite opposite way and the decisions taken at the White House leaked to the press to the inconvenience of his administration.

President Clinton after one year in office realized the chaotic condition of his administration and told Panetta that the “White House is falling apart”, therefore, he wanted him to work as his Chief of Staff.

The Chief of Staff of the White House is supposed to organize daily meetings of top US officials responsible for national defense, homeland security, foreign affairs, intelligence, and economy pursued by other senior officials with specific charges under the top officials. He also works as a liaison between the White House and Congress and informs the president with all the deliberations, the conclusions of all such meetings, advises the president and seeks president’s opinion on them. He is also responsible at passing them to responsible officials and accommodates them accordingly as per the opinion of his boss.

President Clinton’s efforts brought results, Panetta worked for him as his Chief of Staff, and subsequently, there is no need to say that after Leon Panetta replaced Mack McLarty as Chief of Staff, the White House administration reached at a new height.

Similar was the case with President Barrack Obama. According to Robert Gates – one of the most respected Defense Secretaries of the United States has written about the first meeting of the Obama administration in the Situation Room where half of the participants “had their mobile phone turned on during the meeting, potentially broadcasting everything that was said to foreign intelligence electronic eavesdroppers”.

The situation mentioned above is not specific only to Bill Clinton or Barrack Obama- this way or that way, it happens almost with every president and his appointments. The leadership quality of the president, the depth of knowledge of his job, working in team, and abilities to manage differences with his top aides or among the top officials or the aura and charisma of the personality of the president might have minimized the risks. However, the problems exist because with the huge number of officials that a new president brings with him, problems arise unless a serious homework could be made months before the election is held or nomination finalized.

Justification for Hillary’s Candidacy for 2016 Presidential Election

Hillary Rodham Clinton is considered as the prominent and possibly the most popular presidential candidate for the 2016 election.

Major issues that will dominate the election will indisputably be the American foreign policy, national security, US – Russia and China policy, Islamic terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and national economy. Hillary as a former first lady, Secretary of State and a Senator, commands deep knowledge and experience on all these major governing issues.

Comparatively, economy could be taken as an area in which Hillary has not adequate knowledge and expertise, but according to the Forbes magazine (July 16, 2015) Hillary gave the most substantive economic address of the 2016 campaign to date and the magazine considered it as a great speech on US economy. The New York Times (July 14, 2015) and reputed American economists including Joseph E. Stiglitz a Nobel laureate in economics have expressed similar views.

Japan’s former Defense minister Yuriko Koike in one of her article in Project Syndicate, has claimed that Hillary Clinton’s visit to Hanoi – Vietnam to attend the 16th ASEAN Summit in April 2010, may one day be seen as the most significant visit to the region. The weight of this visit according to Koike was only next to the Henry Kissinger’s secret mission to Beijing in July 1971. She further concludes that Kissinger’s Beijing visit triggered a diplomatic revolution that ultimately shifted the global balance of power – that later inspired China to open its economy. Kissinger’s visit also played as a main catalyst for the peaceful dissolution of Soviet Union and rise of China as a major economic and military power of 21st Century.

Clearly, Clinton’s Hanoi visit and her refusal to accept Beijing’s claim over the ownership of Spratly islands group in South China Sea as its area of core interest – that by China’s definition is similar to Tibet and Taiwan, brought new dimension in international relations. This has furthermore, become a major irritant in China’s relations with United States as well as with its regional neighbors.

During her Hanoi visit, Hillary proposed an international mechanism to mediate the clashing claims by all the off shore countries of the South China Sea – China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. As expected, all the countries except China accepted Hillary proposal.

The differences between the two visits made by Kissinger and Clinton are obvious—one was meant to control the growing power and influence of Soviet Union while another was to withdraw from the earlier policy initiated by Kissinger and draw new alliances to contain the rising military power of China.

President Obama’s Asian Pivot was mainly sketched during Hillary’s this visit and she elaborated it in a well written article – America’s Pacific Century, in which she claimed that the future of global politics will be decided in Asia and the United States will play its central role aptly and confidently to suit Asia’s growing importance. Likewise, Hillary also played a critical role in persuading American allies in East and South East Asia that in case of troubled relationship between China and its neighbors in the region and if need be, United States shall not remain neutral and hence will apply every means including military for the security of its allies and partners.

Leslie Marshall a well-known American journalist has listed Hillary as the First Lady to hold a post –graduate degree, the First Lady to run for the elected office, and the first former First Lady to serve as the Secretary of State and even the first women to win a major party’s presidential primary.

In an age of advanced communication – presidents, prime ministers, and foreign ministers can communicate with other world leaders from their desks. However, direct human connections make deep impacts. Therefore, meeting them in their country, discuss, and speak with them as well as with different section of society is the bests diplomatic practice based on some ground strategies to understand the situation in the real contexts as well as from the person with roles affecting the policies in real terms. This was Hillary’s style of diplomacy and that made her the most travelled Secretary of State totaling some 112 countries and had meetings with some 1700-world leaders in her four years term. Probably this is the lone record in world history too.

Opportunities and Challenges for Hillary Clinton

Throughout her professional and political career, Hillary has proven the dignity of her leadership and the level of her commitment, courage, patience, and confidence. This has greatly influenced the legendary figure like Henry Kissinger to speak his mind – while presenting her the Atlantic Council leadership Award in a gathering of more than 700 guests from political, military, diplomatic area from some 33 countries. During the event, Kissinger endorsed her as the next president of the United States. Kissinger also reminded her that there were some five secretaries of state who were later elected as president and Hillary can graciously join that list.

Among all other candidates, she is eminent and well known all over the world. Her role as the Secretary of State speaks itself that – she can maintain and promote American global leadership to secure American interests more aptly and honestly. In all the opinion polls conducted by major American news agencies, she has beaten all other democrat aspirants.

Moreover, diplomacy is a skill of changing behavior of others to ensure that it is in the best interests of the country.

According to former Secretary of State and a renowned scholar in Foreign Policy and diplomacy – Madeleine Albright – Hillary Clinton has an unusual quality to work in a most adverse situation and make people stand on her position with her diplomatic skills and competency. In present day world, diplomacy accounts much to maintain and promote American global leadership.

Hillary as Secretary of State, exploited her full potential and exhibited terrific energy in her job. Experts agree that she was not an acclaimed scholar of foreign policy and diplomacy as her predecessors like Madeleine Albright and Condoleezza Rice, but she demonstrated remarkable grasp of diplomatic knowledge and skill needed to become a great diplomat. Consequently, for that reason, analysts have compared Hillary with great names as John Foster Dulles, Henry Kissinger, and James Baker and well ahead of other predecessors such as Warren Christopher, William Rogers, Madeleine Albright, Dean Rusk, Condoleezza Rice, or Colin Powell.

However, Hillary has bigger challenges to face. In his second term, President Obama has become one of the most unpopular presidents in American history. In the remaining term, if he fails to regain his popularity and demonstrate the decisiveness and confidence in pressing domestic and foreign affairs, Hillary has to bear that burden in her electoral campaign. The Republican Party, naturally, will not miss any opportunity to capitalize out of it and make aggressive political campaign to dampen her chances of being elected.

Indubitably, Hillary has an outstanding global image, but it may not help her among the American people who make the decision. Besides, although she seems most popular among the aspirants of democratic nomination, any clear picture of the Republican candidates is yet to appear. Quality of leadership of a Republican nominee inevitably decides her fate.

If the Republican candidate can catch the heart and mind of American voters in a much better way than Hillary herself can, this will simply turn the tide opposite. Moreover, she has to face some of the controversy linked to her job as Secretary of State.

One major controversy is regarding the funds donated by some foreign government to a nonprofit organization headed by Bill Clinton – her husband. The donation as claimed by her opponents was meant to buy Hillary’s favor as the Secretary of States. This could pose a moral challenge to Hillary. Including this, the militants during the Sept. 11, 2012, Benghazi attacks in Libya had murdered American ambassador Christopher Stevens. During the period, she had received some personal emails that contain private intelligence reports on the Benghazi attacks. Hillary had passed them to her aides in State Department and they are being investigated by a House panel if that had violated any US laws.

The Republican Party, naturally, will not miss any opportunity to capitalize out of such controversy and make aggressive political campaign to dampen her chances of being elected.

On the light of these scandals, some people in the Democratic Party have begun to find alternative candidates in place of Hillary Clinton. Most probably, none of the contentious issues will make any legal or moral case against Hillary’s candidacy, but if it goes against her, a highly deserving woman candidate of the world’s most powerful country will misses the opportunity to hold the most powerful position of the world. It will be a great loss for women all over the world – and equally it has every possibility to rob the chance for a democratic president to lead America for another 8 years – a rare chance in American history.

In a speech delivered to the UN General Assembly by Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane on September 25 2014, King Mohammed VI called for a new approach to helping developing countries achieve secure, sustainable economic and political stability.

The Moroccan monarch stated that “Sustainable development is not something which can be achieved through decisions and ready-made prescriptions,” he said. “Nor is there a single model in this area. Each country follows a path of its own, having taken into consideration its historical development, cultural heritage, human and natural resources, specific political circumstances, as well as its economic choices and the obstacles and challenges facing it.”

In another Royal message to the participants in the Crans Montana Forum held in Dakhla from March 12-14, King Mohammed VI stressed that “Morocco’s African policy is based on a comprehensive, integrated and inclusive approach designed to promote peace and stability, encourage sustainable human development and safeguard the cultural and spiritual identity of our populations, while respecting the universal values of human rights.”

“Morocco has been working untiringly to help forge a modern, bold, entrepreneurial and open Africa; an African continent which is proud of its identity, which derives its vibrancy from its cultural heritage and which is capable of transcending outdated ideologies,” he said

The King acknowledged that “the borders inherited from colonization often continue to be a major source of tension and conflict,” and that “Africa is a continent with growing and unsettling security issues”; but he stressed that “Africa’s tremendous human and natural resources should, instead, be a powerful catalyst for regional integration,” and urged that “It is up to us — Africans — to innovate in order to turn them into open spaces where fruitful exchange and interaction can flourish between African states.”

In 2000, King Mohammed VI revealed the new tone and the new ambitions of Morocco in Africa when he announced, on behalf of South-South cooperation, the cancellation of debts of the least developed countries (LDCs) and Sub-Saharan Africa and to exempt their products from tariffs.

The assistance provided by the kingdom to Sub-Saharan countries is between $2 and $3 billion dirhams (MAD 180 to MAD 268 million) per year, mainly for the benefit of African countries in West and Central Africa.

There is a high demand from these countries, particularly in staff training, contributing to the financing, design and construction of infrastructure as well as socio-economic projects, especially in sanitation, water supply, electricity, health and food.

Morocco organized, in 2007, in Rabat, in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the First African Conference on Human Development. This conference was aimed to meet the ambition of Morocco to promote comprehensive human development through the strengthening of South-South cooperation and the implementation of commitments in various international forums, including those related the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Morocco’s efforts to give the South-South cooperation a face full of solidarity, has resulted in its continued commitment to noble causes of peace and development, as well as its constant position to express solidarity towards the concerns of developing countries, and their aspirations for progress and well-being.

The UNDP ART GOLD Programme has supported Morocco since 2007, improving the effectiveness and aid coordination in order to strengthen local citizenship and to place human beings at the center of development actions.

Morocco is also seeking to develop a strategy for tripartite cooperation channel aid funds made available in the framework of international programs for the financing of infrastructure projects or socio-economic development in African countries and to entrust those projects to Moroccan companies (consultancies, engineering companies, service providers, etc).

Morocco attaches great importance to national education by providing college scholarships to African students. More than 10,000 students pursue their studies each year in universities and schools through scholarships provided by the Moroccan Agency for International Cooperation (AMCI).

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) classified Morocco among the top twenty investors in Africa for the period 2003-2007.

Morocco signed in 2004 an agreement on “double taxation” (which prevents companies with operations abroad from paying tax twice) and encouraging investment with Senegal.

Following the success of this program and the positive results recorded, Morocco expressed to its African partners its willingness to jointly develop a regional development project of artificial inducement of rain in Africa. This would assist African countries with expressed needs in this area, thus contributing to the achievement of the NEPAD strategy for the generalization of access to water in Africa by 2015. Senegal has also been a recipient of technical and logistical support for the country to launch its artificial rain.

Morocco has initiated many African countries to triangular cooperation, rich and varied, based on a true partnership and effective solidarity, in addition to cooperation programs implemented bilaterally. It has many advantages and allows many African countries to benefit from the know-how and expertise already experienced in the land of Africa and to overcome the lack of budgetary resources.

Given the multiple benefits of triangular cooperation, Morocco considers that this type of partnership can be a vehicle for supporting the efforts of developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and expresses its readiness to invest with donors and regional donors and international collaboration seeking to achieve tripartite programs for countries in SSA.

The Omnium Nord-Africain (ONA), the second largest company in the country after the Office Chérifien Phosphates, operates in Africa in the food & beverage, distribution, financial sector (banks & insurance) and the mining sectors.

Export Morocco spares no effort to promote exchanges between Morocco and many African countries, through participation in international fairs and exhibitions, and the organization of business missions, advising businesses, hosting meetings with economic operators, and finally by sponsoring prospective studies of areas and countries.

Groups Managem Ynna Holding, CCGT and JET Sakane are involved in various sectors: mining, tourism, irrigation, housing and social development. Leading Moroccan banks such as BMCE and Attijariwafa Bank have launched partnerships and signed win-win deals with their African counterparts.

The National Electricity Morocco (ONE) and the airline Royal Air Morocco (RAM) are also present in the African continent. Air and sea links have multiplied and contribute significantly to the problem of intra-transportation within the African continent. RAM has more than 30 airlines in Africa and open regional offices in 11 African countries.

Morocco has always supported the initiatives of the United Nations for the restoration of stability in Africa and has, since 1960 to nowadays, has provided military contingents at the disposal of UN peacekeeping operations in the Congo, Somalia, Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo and Côte d’Ivoire.

In December 2006, Morocco sent a contingent of Royal Armed Forces, consisting of specialists and experts to participate in a demining operation in the Casamance region of Senegal. Morocco has also provided medical field camps in many needy African countries to provide immediate medical assistance.

Morocco will continue to be present in Africa and reinforce south-south cooperation to contribute to the development of the African continent and collaborate with American and European allies to bring peace and stability to this continent.

At the Moroccan-Ivorian Economic Forum, held in Abidjan on February 24 2014, King Mohammed VI laid out a compelling vision for Africa’s development – He said that “This objective [prosperity for future generations] will even be more readily attainable when Africa overcomes its Afro-pessimism and unlocks its intellectual and material potential as well as that of all African peoples. Just imagine what our continent will look like, once it frees itself of its constraints and burdens!”

By Nick Cunningham

A flood of bearish news has pushed down oil prices to their lowest levels in months, with WTI nearing $45 per barrel and Brent flirting with sub-$50 territory.

With a bear market back, there is pessimism throughout the oil markets. Goldman Sachs is even predicting oil stays at $50 through 2020, a profoundly grim view of the state of oil supplies.

On the other hand, the contraction in U.S. shale is underway, so it is just a matter of time before the mismatch between supply and demand balances out.

For several years, WTI, which tracks U.S. crude, has traded at a discount to the more internationally-oriented Brent crude marker. There were a few reasons for this. The U.S. saw a surge in oil production, a familiar story to anyone watching the energy space over the past few years. Importantly, however, was the fact that pipeline capacity could not keep up with production, causing localized gluts in certain areas of the United States. Also, the ban on oil exports kept oil stuck within U.S. borders. That also contributed to a lot of oil sloshing around in the U.S.

As a result, the gap between WTI and Brent opened up after historically trading in concert. WTI started selling for a few dollars cheaper per barrel, a discount that was most pronounced in 2012 and 2013. The spread has continued to wax and wane, narrowing more recently because of a build out in pipeline capacity in the U.S.

However, the WTI/Brent spread has shrunk more dramatically since the collapse in oil prices. That is simply due to the fact that global oil markets started experiencing a glut of supply across the world in 2014, a development no longer confined to the United States. WTI even briefly traded higher than Brent earlier this year, before the discount returned.

Low oil prices will sooner or later force a cutback in production. Although EIA data is sketchy on this point, there is evidence that a contraction is already occurring. The weekly EIA figures are estimates, subject to inaccuracies. A retrospective look a few months later usually clarifies the data. However, even taking the most optimistic view of the data, U.S. oil production has flattened out at a minimum.

More accurate monthly data shows that output likely peaked in March at 9.69 million barrels per day, falling to 9.51 million barrels per day in May (the latest month for which data is available).

In other words, low oil prices are forcing production cut backs. More declines in output should be expected in the months ahead. Moody’s expects more defaults in the oil and gas industry this year, as debt piles up and lenders cut off access to credit for drillers. “We expect that the energy sector will continue to be a primary driver of defaults over the next year,” Moody’s senior vice president, John Puchalla, said in a statement. Hedges are expiring, which have shielded profits up until now. Credit lines could be reduced, forcing liquidity crises for weaker companies. These developments could impact oil production overall.

As a result, slowly and incrementally, U.S. oil production could decline enough to start to put a floor beneath oil prices.

Interestingly, however, with non-market oil producers controlling a large portion of oil capacity around the world, the contraction of supply could disproportionately occur in the United States. Put another way, OPEC will continue to produce even though oil prices are low, but market actors in the U.S. won’t be able to do the same. New Iranian oil will only magnify these differences.

The result could be not only a narrowing of the WTI/Brent spread, but we may actually see WTI overtake Brent. That is the conclusion of a recent report from Bank of America, which predicts that WTI will trade at a premium to Brent in the spring of 2016. According Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s head of commodities in New York, the U.S. may resort to more oil imports, as oil from abroad suddenly becomes cheaper. “This combination of higher output from Persian Gulf producers and declining drilling activity in North America could well reverse WTI-Brent crude oil market dynamics next year,” Blanch concluded in the report.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Could-WTI-Trade-At-A-Premium-To-Brent-By-Next-Year.html

When Saudi Arabia embarked on limiting Iran’s influence through its military intervention against the Houthis in Yemen the support for that effort was wide and loud. Almost all Arab and Muslim nations supported the move. For that support to become a long-term reality, the Kingdom has to stay busy and on top of pressing issues in the Arab and the Muslim world.

The major factor that gave Iran an edge over Saudi Arabia was its clear anti-Israel stance. The Saudis must, in essence, pull the rug from under Iran’s feet, but that would require even more blunt and courageous moves. Saudi leadership must inherit Iran’s position as the leading Muslim nation challenging Israel and her allies. Such incidents as the savage burning of the Palestinian toddler Ali Saad Dawabsheh would have to be Saudi’s problems if it is to come across as the leader in the Muslim public eye.

In challenging Israel, Saudi Arabia has to be more upfront and has to go beyond empty words of condemnation that serve no real purpose. The matter is not that simple as the act of challenging Israel is by default an act of going face to face with the Americans. But we are in an era whereby a one-man show is fast disappearing and even those nations that are still despotic their public views and positions are now being listened and adhered to. As such, Saudi’s moves have to pay attention to what the Arab and Muslim world public aspires for. As such, Saudi Arabia as wins hearts and minds of the people across the Arab and Muslim world the Americans and the Europeans would have to change their attitude and give more weight towards Saudi Arabia and her concerns.

Attempting to create a Unified Arab Armed Force (UAAF) is a noble undertaking, but provided that the show in the Arab world is increasingly in sync with public view, the Kingdom has to choose its allies very carefully. Associating with tyrannical elements such as the present Egyptian regime is detrimental to her efforts and lacks long term vision. Mr. Sisi is on his way out and that eventuality is a matter of when. The how is already known as his opposition has refused to to give up and violence against the regime is intensifying. Therefore, Saudi Arabia should at worst take no sides in Egypt and must avoid coming across as supporting a bloody coup in Egypt. Dancing with Satan is always counterproductive.

As much as Saudi Arabia shouldn’t be allying with elements that have or are being rejected by the Arab and Muslim public, it must also align its policies with forces that are liked by the masses. Saudi Arabia must ensure, for instance, that the Sultanate of Oman is included in any endeavours the Kingdom is pursuing. While Sisi is seen as a villain in the Arab and Muslim worlds, Oman is acknowledged as the good guy. Rather than allowing Iran to win over Oman, Saudi Arabia should do its best to gently pull back Oman and maintain the solidity of the GCC. A solid GCC stands as a solid leader for the rest of Arabs and Muslims in the world.

To summarise, Saudi Arabia needs to solidify her ties with such parties as Hamas and take actions to physically support its struggle against Israel just as Iran is doing with Hezbollah. It must avoid appearing supportive of what the Arab and Muslim public see as villains — as is the case with Egypt’s Sisi. Finally, it must avoid antagonizing what the Arab and Muslim world perceive as positive elements, as is the case with its cultural, spiritual and physical neighbour, the Sultanate of Oman.

Saudi Arabia must physically and even aggressively openly support all the pressing issues of the millions of Arabs and billions of Muslims if it is to garner enough support to successfully continue what King Salman has started.

At least 17 people have been killed and many others wounded after a bomb attack targeted a mosque in Saudi Arabia’s southwestern region of Asir, Saudi media reports say.

The bombing took place in the mosque used by Saudi special forces in Asir’s provincial capital city of Abha on Thursday, state TV channel al-Ekhbariya reported.

The broadcaster described the incident as a “terrorist” attack, adding that the explosion occurred when worshipers were praying at the mosque.

Original article

Ebola has killed thousands in Sierra Leone, and its impact is being felt in other ways as well: there is a risk of conflict as survivors are shunned by communities who fear their presence. Fortunately, there are a number of local peacebuilding groups working to counter this phemonenon.

By Abdul Brima*

After a decade of blistering memories of civil war, Sierra Leone was recently poised for political and economic growth. Then Ebola struck. By the end of 2014, this dreadful virus had accounted for the demise of over three thousand lives. The disease has led to a chain of serious challenges.

First it was fear and denial. The virus carriers are known to be primates that have traditionally been a source of food. To convince the nation that animals like chimpanzees, bats and other bush meats were hosts of the virus was going to be an uphill task. The strict adherence to culture and tradition made people challenge the veracity of the virus’s existence.

Sierra Leoneans are known to be culturally hospitable. So it is not unusual to see people hugging and shaking hands during greetings or important family or community meetings. So the fact that people were told to desist from this deeply engrained cultural heritage, in order to help stop the spread of the virus, was considered sacrilege.

The legacy of political conflict also had an impact. When Kailahun and Kenema districts in the Eastern region of Sierra Leone were first quarantined, there was high suspicion among the locals that the government was targeting them because they were the opposition’s strongholds.

To make matters worse, it was very common at the beginning of the Ebola fight to hear of people fighting medical workers who went to collect dead bodies. The community people preferred to bury their dead against government regulations. This made conditions favourable for the virus to thrive.

When systems fail

Ebola has overwhelmed both governments and INGOs. In Sierra Leone, a weak health sector, unskilled medical personnel and inadequate equipment did not help the situation. There was virtually no prior preparation or indeed knowledge about the virus. The government’s response capacity was very weak and fragile. Most of the infected people who sought medical help in the beginning never went back home and their families did not hear from them or even see their graves.

Health workers were soon accused of ritual murder. There was curiosity and morbid suspicion that culminated into mistrust of the healthcare system. People resorted to deciding their own destinies. Joseph Jimmy Sankaituah, Search for Common Ground’s Country Director, said that there was little engagement between government and community when it came to seeking consent for action. He pointed out the government met stiff resistance in building an Ebola Isolation Center (EIC) in the rural western area because the community people thought they were not consulted.

Stigma and discrimination – at the heart of the Ebola crisis

Twenty five year old Mabinty Koroma survived Ebola in central Freetown. She lost virtually every member of her family: mother, father and two children. Like many other survivors, Mabinty now has to confront the reality of stigma and discrimination from her community. “Before I contracted the virus,” Mabinty recalls, “I was selling food and other items along the streets of Freetown. I lost everything when I was sick. My neighbours had nothing to do with me after they realised that I had been infected with Ebola.”

She said that even though she survived the disease, her community members isolated her. “They called me a disease carrier and warned their children not to have anything to do with me. It was really difficult for me.”

Another survivor, seventeen year old Mohamed Lamin, lost everything in Freetown: parents, uncle, sister and brothers. “They all died within a matter of days. It was very scary; the whole month was full of tears. I almost lost my mind,” he says, with tears running down his cheeks.

Mohammed says that life is very difficult for him and his only surviving brother. “Now I’m left to take care of my younger brother. Both of us cannot go to school again because there is no one to take care of us. No one wants to help us. We are stigmatised and discriminated against; even to play with other kids in the neighbourhood is not possible for us.”

He concluded that such high level of abandonment and discrimination had the potential of breeding conflict.

Meanwhile, the situation is even worse in Port Loko, in northern Sierra Leone, one of the current hotspots. There are lots of stories of families being ostracised for fear of spreading Ebola. One notorious example is with a very popular family being discriminated against by other community members. The family has been blamed for the recent spread of the outbreak in Port Loko. One of their members recounts what he described as a terrible ordeal.

“The grave of my grandmother was destroyed. We are not even allowed to move freely in certain parts of the community. They call us disease spreaders.”

These stories are familiar across the country. It is as a result of these problems that volunteers working in Ebola affected communities are calling for both material and psychosocial support for survivors. Cherner B. Kamara is a volunteer working with Sierra Leone Red Cross Society in Port Loko. His job is to provide psychosocial support to Ebola survivors and to reintegrate them into their communities.

He says that even though cases are slowing down in the country, there is a need to continue providing support to Ebola affected communities. “If we stop counselling people, they will have great difficulties with their trauma.”

It is best to continue this support not only to survivors, but to their families and the communities as well.”

“Ebola has challenged and broken relationships. We have to fix them.”

Peacebuilding interventions – helping to mend broken relationships

As light slowly surfaces around the Ebola fight in Sierra Leone, the big question on the lips of many is; how will the country bridge the broken relationships Ebola will leave behind? Some civil society organisations working on peacebuilding are shifting their focus to mending these broken relationships.

Anges Isata Conteh is the head of Deseret Women Sierra Leone. Her organisation works on peacebuilding in Makeni, the main town of Bombali district in northern Sierra Leone. Over the last few months, Bombali has been the epicentre of Ebola.

Agnes recalls that she had been a victim of morbid suspicion and intimidation by her neighbours.

“One of my neighbours, an eighty year old man, had died over night from a very short illness. His family wanted to have a secret burial, against the government’s Ebola emergency regulations. I stopped them from embarking on this secret mission and warned them to call the Ebola toll free line 117 but they did not. I called the line myself and within a matter of hours, two ambulances arrived to carry the corps.”

She said that even though the family members had insisted that the old man had died of natural causes, the lab result later confirmed that he had died of Ebola. The entire family was therefore quarantined immediately. Agnes went on to say that her quarantined neighbours later started showering her in abuse.

“They abused my mother and called me a witch. In fact, I was not even allowed to pass near their compound after the quarantine period had ended.” She said that as a peacebuilder, she wanted to mend the broken ties with her neighbours. “I waited for the appropriate time because I did understand their frustrations.”

She said that after two months, she took some members of her organisation to this family to try and settle their grievances. “Members of my organisation explained to them the importance of my decision to call 117. We told them that it was even possible that additional members of their family would have contracted the virus and probably loss their lives. They saw reason with me and we ironed out the matter peacefully.”

Meanwhile, Agnes explained another example of how her organisation managed to reunite a nurse, who had survived Ebola, with her community. “Kanko Marah was one of the first health workers to have survived Ebola in Bombali district. When she survived the disease, she was totally rejected by her landlord.”

“The landlord even gave her an eviction notice. Kanko was labelled as a disease carrier and the landlady was scared for Kanko not to spread the virus in the compound.” Kanko was humiliated to the extent of not fetching water from the well within the compound. “She was constantly isolated. Even to use the general toilet was impossible for her.”

On hearing the information, “We immediately went to the compound as an organisation and called a big meeting. We called religious leaders, chiefs and senior members of the community.”

Survivors – to be celebrated, not victimised

She said they explained to landlord that Ebola survivors should be celebrated instead of being ostracised. “We made it clear that survivors will not spread the virus and that they were not a threat to other people.” She said statements from the chiefs, and religious leaders sealed the matter and Kanko was finally reunited with her landlord and other members of the compound.

It is because of issues like these that the Peacebuilding Commission held a special meeting on Ebola and the recovery strategy in New York in April. The PBC chair called on the international community to maintain a commitment to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea to ensure that progress on peacebuilding is sustained.

As the country comes closer to seeing the end of Ebola, Agnes thinks that more resources should be spent on community reconciliation. She calls on government and INGOs to facilitate more community dialogues. She said that it was difficult to quantify the broken trust and relationship gaps Ebola has already created. She fears that a new wave of conflict looms if urgent attention is not directed at rebuilding broken ties within Ebola ravaged communities across the country.

*Abdul Brima is Insight on Conflict’s Local Correspondent in Sierra Leone. A radio producer and presenter on BBC Media Action Sierra Leone, he has worked with rural communities on conflict and development issues in Sierra Leone and Liberia.

This article was originally published by Insight on Conflict and is available by clicking here.

By Manoj Joshi*

In recent times we have been hearing a great deal about the Islamic State (IS) and how it poses a threat to India. In July, the newspaper USA Today carried a report claiming that the IS was contemplating raising a terrorist army in Pakistan and Afghanistan and launching an attack on India which would trigger off the “end of times” war promised in Islamic theology. This was based on a document written in Urdu, captured from a Pakistani national close to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

According to specialist Jessica Stern, the document is more of a wish list of the IS, and does not reflect its actual capabilities in the South Asian region. The idea of an “end of times” conflict has pre-dated the IS in this region with many of those involved in fighting with the Taliban believing that they were part of a struggle which would see the Armageddon-like battle in the region of Khorasan (approximating north-eastern Iran and northerrn Afghanistan) which would result in the entire world coming under the sway of the sway of the Mahdi.

With groups like the Taliban afloat in Afghanistan, such millenarian thinking is not unusual. It also sometimes reflects the semi-educated Maulvis who dot the landscape of South Asia. But from here to extrapolate some imminent danger to India from the Islamic State is a leap too far. However, it clearly seems to be worrying the authorities in the Union Home Ministry, who called a meeting last month of 12 state government officials to frame a strategy against the IS threat. According to a newspaper report, the meeting took up the issue of a new de-radicalisaion strategy which would use moderate Muslim clergy to create a “counter-narrative” to challenge the jihadi ideologies while at the same time the intelligence authorities would maintain a surveillance of cyber space, the recruitment ground of the IS.

As of now, no one is clear as to how many Indian Muslims have been recruited by the IS. Government estimates put it at about a dozen. But so far they have managed to lay their hands on only one returnee Areeb Majeed one of four Kalyan men who returned from Syria earlier this year. Considering that India has a Muslim population of 180 million, these numbers are statistically equal to zero.

We also need to take into account another factor. For the present, the IS orientation is towards the Arab world. Unlike the Al Qaeda, which was a global franchise, the IS is a proto-state with a specific geographical location. And, as of now, it is far from India. It is a big problem for many developed countries because they worry that their young men who are flocking to the standard of the IS will return and form the core of a new generation of hardened, violent Islamist extremists. Again, Indian Muslims, like many other Indians are poor and cannot afford to simply fly off to Turkey or Iraq and join the IS. Further, in the case of India, the IS’ vaunted ability to radicalise people through the internet is limited because our internet coverage is woeful, being virtually non-existent for the poorer people.

There is, of course, the danger that exists of the IS taking root in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Both countries are already awash with jihadi ideologies. Further, the revelation of the death of Mullah Omar and the possibility that the Taliban will fragment, leaves an opening for individual Taliban leaders, some of who have already announced a shift of loyalty to the IS. In Pakistan, the army offensive against the TTP can also have the consequence of fragmenting the outfit and leaving a vacuum that can be filled by mullahs aligning themselves with the IS. In either case, that battle will have to be fought on the ground there. India is not on that front line. Recall the many alleged intelligence alerts claiming that the Al Qaeda was entering the battle in India. Nothing came of them.

What the Union Home Ministry needs to worry about are the growing instances of communal violence in the country in the past year. They need not concern themselves over the Islamic narrative in India which, in any case, has produced a remarkable quiescent Muslim community in an era of turmoil in the Islamic world. Hindutva outfits have stepped up their pressure on the Muslim community and we are likely to see more violence in the run up to the state Assembly elections in UP in 2017. This is bad news, because at the root of radicalisation is usually a sense of grievance. While in many instances, grievances are manufactured, in the case of India, some people are bent on creating them through a strategy of overawing the Muslim community through a policy of violence and discrimination. But, the policy is more likely to end up tearing the social and religious fabric of the country apart, the surest way of mortally damaging the unity and integrity of the nation.

*The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Courtesy: www.mid-day.com

The Orthodox Church and the Christian tradition have always assumed a role of primary importance in Russian history and tradition.

The origins of Christianity in Russia go back to 988 and coincide with the baptism of Prince Vladimir the Great. He had come to Constantinople, following which the evangelization of the Principality Kievan Rus’ started. The latter included the space currently occupied by the areas of Russia, the Ukraine and Belarus, considered the predecessor of the Russian Empire. Formed by Igor in 882, the Principality Kievan Rus’ is the first political form organised by the Oriental Slav tribes placed on those territories. This gave rise to the common orthodox faith and the Russian people’s sense of national belonging.

Retracing the path of the Principality one can indeed observe that the Orthodox Christian Faith was immediately embraced by those populations. It also succeeded in asserting itself in the Eastern zones, where there was strong pagan influence. This barely digested the advent of the new creed and accompanied their evolution, acting as a stalwart for the Country’s national and cultural identity. Orthodoxy is even granted with Scripture, which is surely a culture’s fundamental principle. It was introduced via the spread of Christianity among the Slav tribes through the creation of the Cyrillic characters due to two great saints, Cyril and Methodius. It also constituted the prerequisite for the political and cultural development of the Principality of Kiev, leaving a heritage that would last even after its disintegration.

Indeed, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Orthodox religion regained that role it traditionally enjoyed.

To understand the extent of this phenomenon, one can analyze some statistics carried out by the International Social Survey Programme:“Russians return to religion, but not to Church 10/02/2014” relating to the number of the faithful in the Country between 1988 and 2008.

If in 1988, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Orthodox church counted 67 dioceses, 21 monasteries, 6,893 parishes, 2 academies and 3 theological seminars. In 2008 it counted 133 dioceses, over 23,000 parishes, 620 monasteries (including 298 male ones), 322 convents, 5 academies and 32 theological seminars, 43 schools for seminary preparation, 1 theological institution, 2 orthodox universities and 2 female diocesan theological schools.

Examining the data also reveals that between 1991 and 2008, the share of Russian adults considering themselves orthodox had grown from 31% to 72%, while the share of the Russian population not considering themselves religious had dropped from 61% to 18%. However, research carried out by the International Social Survey Programme also reveals that the return to religion does not correspond to its practice. The research demonstrates two substantial facts: only one in ten of those declaring themselves religious attended mass at least once a month; the growth in practisers was ridiculous when compared to that in believers. The latter is borne out by the fact that from 1991 to 2008 it was just 5 percent, going from 2% to 7%.

The growth in the population towards the various religious affiliations was also analyzed over various demographic groups. This analysis revealed that from 1991 to 2008 there was an increase of around 38% in women approaching Orthodox religion, going from 43% to 81%; and an increase of 46% in men, going from 17% to 63%. It also reveals that the increase in identification with Orthodox religion grew by 43% in youthful groups, aged between 16 and 49, going from 26% in 1991, to 69% in 2008, and by 39% amongst those aged over 50, going from 40% in 1991 to 79% in 2008. One may further register that approach to the Orthodox Faith grew substantially in the population with a high level of education, and in particular graduates. This can be augmented by the facts that in 2008, women of faith were the majority and practicing more than men, and that the over-70s were a more religious group than the youngsters. Reference to age therefore, highlights that the elderly form the most religious: 82% of the over-70s declare they are orthodox, in comparison with 77% of people aged between 50 and 69 and 74% of those aged between 30 and 49. Finally, the 62% of youths aged between 16 and 29 remains.

Although the above-mentioned study displays a clear discrepancy between the practicing and non-practicing faithful, the great rebirth of orthodoxy in the Russian people cannot be denied. In this regard, it is interesting to quote the episode of great mass participation occurring in November 2011. Three million Muscovites, facing the cold and rain, poured onto the streets to venerate the belt of the Virgin. This had benn brought from Mount Athos to the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour (the church destroyed by Stalin and substituted by a pool, but rebuilt in a few years under El’cin).

There is no doubt that this rebirth was supported by the collaboration between the Church and political power. This significantly grew over time and intensified on the occasion of two events in particular: the election of Archbishop Cyril Somolensk as patriarch of Moscow and all Russia in 2009, and Vladimir Putin’s return to power in 2012.

The Orthodox church’s policies can actually be easily reconciled with Putin’s vision and his strong call to the Country’s traditions. Patriarch Alexei II had already set himself clearly apart from the Western concepts of “human rights” and “globalization”, considering them unsuited to Russian specifics. Further, Cyril I, his successor, issued the “Declaration of Human Rights of Russia’s Orthodox church”, after repudiating the Western Universal Declaration of Man’s Rights.

The intensification of relations between Church and State has become even more evident in recent years. Indeed, on the forth anniversary of the nomination of Patriarch Cyril, the Kremlin explicitly wished for the Orthodox church to raise its beneficent role in society. In a meeting between the State and religious exponents, held on 11 February 2013, Putin also underlined the need to give the Orthodox church more space. This extended, to political questions regarding matters like the family, education of youths and the patriotic spirit. With reference to defending these values, in particular the family, Russia has often wished to confirm and remark defending traditional, natural values of human society. To this end it has underlined its conception of “family” – understood as the basic element in ordered development for State and society – and the realization of a political and social strategy favouring it. These have decisively contributed to inverting the very negative demographic trend afflicting the Country over the last decades, warding off out-and-out social disaster. If one considers that the “demographic Winter” striking Russia around 1991 to 2005 is now a common situation in most European states, there can be no doubt that the Russian model constitutes an international example.

Keeping these facts in mind, in some alarming cases the attempt to define and orient States’ policies supporting families and young mothers is even more important and current. It aims to guarantee correct demographic development, crucial for effect on the process of State’s main internal and external policy. In this regard, President Putin has often insisted how humanity today clashes with very serious challenges, like continuous attacks on the institution of the family. This explains why Putin’s Russia is very interested in demographic and family matters. Protecting the rights and interests of families, motherhood and childhood is a priority for public authorities. This actively support and encourage politics and initiatives in their favour: they, benefit from the close collaboration with non-governmental organisations and voluntary citizen associations. Russia’s objective is to defeat this long-lasting demographic deficit, by reaching a fertility rate with a replacement ratio of 2,1 instead of its current 1,7.

Indeed, for the Russian authorities the problem of birth reduction cannot only be attributed to the economic sphere. It has deeper, cultural roots hence the need to intervene in the fields of education and information too. On many occasions, both Putin and Patriarch Cyril have emphasised that the globalised financial system caused the world economic crisis as of 2008, creating and making hegemonic speculative, parasitical financing. It is also responsible for the ethical, moral yielding developing internationall to create a dangerous ‘tendency to destroying human society’. This moral crisis had exacerbated a tendency to selfishness and individualism. These phenomena appear in Russia as the “social orphan”: 80% of abandoned children normally have both parents, who intentionally choose not to bring them up.

One may further note that a new agreement between the Church and the Counts’ Court was recently signed in Moscow. It aimed to raise morale in Russia, impaired by corruption, a real blight there; and safeguard the national spiritual, historical and cultural heritage, necessary for the social good. On the occasion of signing, Patriarch Cyril declared that “The work of the Counts’ Court has a substantial impact on society’s moral climate. We know that corruption degrades human beings. And if corruption reaches a significant extent, it erodes the healthy fabric of society and undermines the basis of the State.”

In fact, for Cyril, the “current vices, connected with theft of public and state property” are attributed to the difficulties faced by the population in the ’90’s and early 2000’s. They are, “the collapse of the economy, the destruction of certain ideals and the attempt to create new ones”.

For these reasons, the Kremlin considers the Church a fundamental ally to preserve Russia’s spiritual and cultural identity. Politics and the Church are intertwined: the Kremlin needs to promote the Church as an organ representing the nation’s values to regroup consensus; it is opportune for the Church to collaborate with politics to promote choices protecting the family and safeguarding public morality. With reference to safeguarding life, the Orthodox church has worked hard to explain that abortion is nothing but the killing of an innocent human being. The work of many NGOs promote the pro-life cause in Russia.

Another emblematic case of the common political strategy linking the Orthodox church and the Kremlin is the anti-blasphemy. This was adopted following the episode of three feminist activists, Pussy Riot, who played in the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow. Their rock music, blasphemous in character, was performed on the platform of the altar, to protest against Putin’s policy. For the secular authorities the gesture was considered as one by hooligans or vandals; for the Ecclesiastical leaders it was blasphemous profanity.

Further, the Church supported the new regulations limiting access to abortion; and Putin’s law forbidding the publication of material portraying homosexuals, lesbians, bisexuals and transsexuals.

The Orthodox church’s action also spreads internationally, appearing as the promoter of dialogue between different religions and cultures. Patriarch Cyril actually stated the need to build orthodox geopolitics, in line with Putin’s foreign policy. To favour this role, the “Inter-Religious Council of the Russian Federation” and its analogous “Inter-religious Council of the CSI” (Community of Independent states) were set up in 1998. Orthodox Christians, 230 million in all, include: countries orthodox by tradition (Belarus, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Georgia, Greece, Macedonia, Moldavia, Montenegro, Romania, Russia, Serbia, the Ukraine), with their own orthodox national Churches, countries containing orthodox ethnic-cultural minorities (Albania, Czech Republic, Finland, Poland, Slovakia), and countries containing orthodox faithful, principally in Western Europe. Patriarch Cyril often visits countries from the former Soviet belt to consolidate cultural, religious, but also political relations. The Orthodox church moves in the former Soviet area, which the Kremlin aims to regroup. All this, supports the government’s foreign policy, continually appealing to a shared values between the “sister nations” with “a unique story, a unique Church and unique future”.

To closer understand the importance of it, one may refer to Eirini Patsea’s luminary work, “Church diplomacy: Greece, Russia and beyond”. The author stresses that “after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Orthodox post-Soviet states chose to submit to the spiritual leadership of the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople; not the Patriarchate of Moscow. It was important, for those states and for their western interlocutors, that they cut the cord from the ROC and the Soviet politics”. Or, as prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic vividly remarked in his recent editorial on Greece: “Russia is a legal, not an ideological, successor of the late Soviet Union. Many in Greece and Latin America mingled the two”.

With reference to foreign policy, the situation lived in the Ukraine following the conflict is also interesting. In this country Orthodox church exponents were submitted to pressure from the Ukraine’s new “nationalist” authorities and other organisations. The latter wished to take over faculties to transfer the clergy depending on the Moscow Patriarch under the Kiev Patriarch (the latter not recognised, not even by the Constantinople Patriarch). In this regard it should be stressed that the Ukraine counts the highest number of orthodox parishes after Russia.

To conclude, it is fundamental to underline that this type of collaboration between Church and state has facilitated the rebirth of faith in Russia. It is possible in the traditional acephalus-national reality of Orthodoxy, which has made the “symphonic” Caesaropapism the true foundation of Russian identity for centuries. It is then clear that the model cannot be exported. However, the National character of the orthodox Ecclesiastical reality has not hindered the possibility of an “orthodox ecumenism” open to international dialogue between cultures and religions.

Dr Filippo Romeo, Director, Infrastructure and Development Programme, IsAG Rome, Italy.

First published by www.moderndiplomacy.eu

The world should focus on managing phosphorus fertilizers in a better way, especially after the future phosphate peak. Overall, we are on the right track as countries like Morocco are trying to use their resources to reduce current hunger levels and provide for future populations.

I want to assure you, my dear readers, that even if phosphorus decreases or disappears, don’t panic; we will not starve to death. The world keeps evolving and science will never stop surprising us.

Morocco, a small country in North West Africa, at the border of both the Mediterranean sea and the Atlantic Ocean, is on track to become one of the major players in global food security. In fact, the Kingdom of Morocco will contribute greatly to the challenge of feeding the world, especially since the estimated number of the world population in 2050 is 9.6 billion according to the United nations 2013 report; feeding the population is and will remain one of the major challenges we face.

Morocco, is going to play a key role in solving hunger problems not only in Africa, but also in the rest of the world. You may wonder how a country that barely could feed itself several years ago will be able to feed a whole continent, or even the whole world.

In 2009, Morocco launched an agricultural campaign that involved the use of phosphorus fertilizers to increase crop productivity in the country. This plan allowed the country to depend on its own agriculture to reinforce its food security. Morocco has more than half of the world’s phosphate reserves and is willing to use its “white gold” carefully and effectively to revolutionize African agriculture and reduce poverty in the region but the country.

This key nation will also play a major role in the international scene by providing countries with its “white gold.” However, we will learn that this fertilizer use may encounter several issues, including a price increase. Hopefully, the world will not have to face a “phosphorus shock” or a “phosphorus peak” like the “oil shock” experienced earlier in the 20th century. I believe that the increase of phosphorus fertilizer is quite different from other energy resources including oil; this essay will tell you why.

​Several positive outcomes from Morocco’s project have been recently witnessed. The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) (2013), a Canadian-based, international public policy research institute for sustainable development, conducted a case study entitled, “Food Price Inflation and Food Security: A Morocco case study” explaining how the country reduced its Canadian lentils imports in 2013, a time predicted by the United Nations as a global food crisis and a time of food price inflation. This was made possible through the “Green Morocco Plan” (GMP). In 2008, the plan “puts agriculture at the forefront of its strategies on economic growth, poverty reduction and trade liberalization.”(Huppé, Shaw, Dion, Voora, para.2). Even if the agriculture in Morocco still suffers fromseveral setbacks including archaic agricultural practices, Morocco has decreased its amount of food imports.

Indeed, the country has increased its exports towards several developed countries and regions such as Russia, North America and the European Union. According to Fresh Plaza online magazine (2014), in 2012-2013 “Russia has become Morocco’s number one citrus client, taking 60% of exports, North America between 10-15%, and the European Union 30%” (Fresh Plaza, para.1). As a matter of fact, fruits exports are Morocco’s largest exports especially citrus, which include lemon, citron, orange and lime.

Additionally, thanks to the GMP, Morocco has participated for the first time inDubai’s “World of Perishables” Exhibition. According to Zawya magazine (2014), “Morocco’s participation in the 2014 Dubai WOP exhibition is a real occasion to explore new opportunities for business partnerships and to communicate concerning the Moroccan exportable supply, which could offer significant growth prospects in this market.” (para.8).

The fact that Morocco could participate in such an event in the first place means that the country’s agricultural is moving forward: in this exhibition, exporters mainly present Morocco’s rich supply–including fruits and vegetables. Moreover, Morocco was recently awarded with the Rome Prize of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) “for outstanding progress in fighting hunger” (FAO, 2014, para.1). This prize is in recognition of Morocco’s success in achieving major goals including eradicating hunger and reducing malnutrition through the promotion of the role of agriculture in the country’s sustainable development.

Also, According to the Moroccan ministry of Agriculture, the food-processing sector represents only 24 percent of the industrial units in the country (para.9). In fact, Morocco’s agriculture has not been developed for years, and now thanks to the Green Morocco Plan, it will evolve positively and therefore could be compared to the already developed agriculture such as some of the European countries close to Morocco.

​Another solution exists to use phosphorus fertilizer carefully and efficiently: Even though it is impossible to synthetize phosphorus or substitute it by another element, scientists can modify plants in order to absorb less phosphate.

According to GMO Safetygroup, “Plant researchers are working on ways of improving the take-up and utilization of nitrogen by crop plants” (2012, para.5). To put it another way, since phosphorus fertilizer adds the essential element of nitrogen needed for plant growth, scientists are trying to find a way for plants to grow in soils of lesser nitrogen deposits. The U.S. company, Arcadia Biosciences, has done an experiment which involved genetically modifying crops such as rice to produce more amino acids when there is a lack of nitrogen in soils (GMO Safety, 2012,para.6). In short, these crops will still be able to grow even without adding a huge amount of phosphorus fertilizers. These scientific findings allow me to believe that the use of phosphorus fertilizer can be managed carefully in the future, and that includes Morocco’s use of phosphorus.

Certainly, the Green Morocco Plan is a huge improvement in Morocco’s agriculture. However, like I stated earlier in the paper, this plan still needs to work on several issues such as managing phosphorus fertilizers carefully and taking into consideration these scientific findings. Otherwise, Morocco will end its resource earlier than expected and all the great projects that the country planed for the African continent and the world will go up in smoke.

Overall, an increase of phosphate price would not necessarily have a negative aftermath in food production. However, it forces experts to find alternatives. With today’s technology, scientists have already found interesting solutions, which have the added effect of preserving the environment. I believe that with future’s technologies it will be even better. It is just a matter of time.

To conclude, Morocco should also focus on altering phosphorus fertilizers in their crops. Additionally, The Green Morocco Plan still has a lot of work to do in order to successfully reach all of its goals by 2020. The plan must include socio-economic and environmental solutions. However, Morocco will still play a major role in feeding the future world’s population. We know now that phosphorus isn’t going anywhere quite yet which is why its availability should be capitalized on. Yet phosphorus reserves are going to decrease, and prices will increase, forcing scientists and governments to think of alternative solutions.

*Ayate Temsamani is an undergraduate student at School of International Service, American University Washington DC.

The dropping of those bombs and the explicit threat ever since to drop more is a crime that has given birth to a new species of imperialism.

On Aug. 6 and 9, millions of people will mark the 70th anniversary of the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in those cities and at events around the world. Some will celebrate the recent deal in which Iran committed not to pursue nuclear weapons and to comply with the Non-Proliferation Treaty with requirements not imposed on any other nation.

Yet, those nations that have nuclear weapons are either violating the NPT by failing to disarm or by building more (U.S., Russia, U.K., France, China, India), or they have refused to sign the treaty (Israel, Pakistan, North Korea). Meanwhile, new nations are acquiring nuclear energy despite possessing an abundance of oil and/or some of the best conditions for solar energy on earth (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE).

Nuclear missiles containing more than the entire bombing power of World War II in a single bomb are aimed by the thousands at Russia from the United States and vice versa. A 30-second fit of insanity in a U.S. or Russian president could eliminate all life on earth; all the while, the United States is playing war games on Russia’s border. The acceptance of this madness as normal and routine is part of the continued explosion of those two bombs, begun 70 years ago and rarely properly understood.

The dropping of those bombs and the explicit threat ever since to drop more is a crime that has given birth to a new species of imperialism. The United States has intervened in over 70 nations, more than one per year since World War II, and has now come full circle to re-militarize Japan.

The history of the first U.S. militarization of Japan was initially brought to light by James Bradley. In 1853 the U.S. Navy forced Japan open to U.S. merchants, missionaries, and militarism. In 1872 the U.S. military began training the Japanese in how to conquer other nations, with an eye on Taiwan.

Charles LeGendre, an American general training the Japanese in the ways of war, proposed that they adopt a Monroe Doctrine for Asia — that is a policy of dominating Asia in the way that the United States dominated its hemisphere. In 1873, Japan invaded Taiwan with U.S. military advisors and weaponry. Korea was next, followed by China in 1894. In 1904, U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt encouraged Japan to attack Russia. But he broke a promise to Japan by refusing to go public with his support for its Monroe Doctrine, and he backed Russia’s refusal to pay Japan a dime following the war. The Japanese empire became seen as a competitor rather than a proxy, and the U.S. military spent decades planning for a war with Japan.

President Harry Truman, who would order the nuclear bombings in 1945, told the U.S. Senate on June 23, 1941: “If we see that Germany is winning, we ought to help Russia, and if Russia is winning we ought to help Germany, and that way let them kill as many as possible.” Did Truman value Japanese lives above Russian and German? There is nothing anywhere to suggest that he did. A U.S. Army poll in 1943 found that roughly half of all GIs believed it would be necessary to kill every Japanese person on earth. William Halsey, who commanded U.S. naval forces in the South Pacific, vowed that when the war was over, the Japanese language would be spoken only in hell.

On August 6, 1945, President Truman announced: “Sixteen hours ago an American airplane dropped one bomb on Hiroshima, an important Japanese army base.” Of course it was a city, not an army base at all. “Having found the bomb we have used it,” Truman declared. “We have used it against those who attacked us without warning at Pearl Harbor, against those who have starved and beaten and executed American prisoners of war, and against those who have abandoned all pretense of obeying international law of warfare.” Truman said nothing about reluctance or the price necessary for ending the war.

In fact, Japan had been trying to surrender for months, including in its July 13 cable sent to Stalin, who read it to Truman. Japan wanted only to keep its emperor, terms the United States refused until after the nuclear bombings. Truman’s advisor James Byrnes wanted the bombs dropped to end the war before the Soviet Union could invade Japan. In fact, the Soviets attacked the Japanese in Manchuria on the same day as the Nagasaki bombing and overwhelmed them. The U.S. and the Soviets continued the war on Japan for weeks after Nagasaki. Then the Japanese surrendered.

The United States Strategic Bombing Survey concluded that, “… certainly prior to 31 December, 1945, and in all probability prior to 1 November, 1945, Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war, and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplated.” One opponent of the nuclear bombings who had expressed this same view to the Secretary of War prior to the bombings was General Dwight Eisenhower. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral William D. Leahy agreed: “The use of this barbarous weapon at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was of no material assistance in our war against Japan. The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender.”

The war wasn’t just over. The new American empire was launched. “The revulsion against war … will be an almost insuperable obstacle for us to overcome,” said General Electric CEO Charles Wilson in 1944. “For that reason, I am convinced that we must begin now to set the machinery in motion for a permanent wartime economy.” And so they did. Although invasions were nothing new to the U.S. military, they now came on a whole new scale. And the ever-present threat of nuclear weapons use has been a key part of it.

Truman threatened to nuke China in 1950. The myth developed, in fact, that Eisenhower’s enthusiasm for nuking China led to the rapid conclusion of the Korean War. Belief in that myth led President Richard Nixon, decades later, to imagine he could end the Vietnam War by pretending to be crazy enough to use nuclear bombs. Even more disturbingly, he actually was crazy enough. “The nuclear bomb, does that bother you? … I just want you to think big, Henry, for Christsakes,” Nixon said to Henry Kissinger in discussing options for Vietnam. And how many times has Iran been reminded that “all options are on the table”?

The United States has intervened in over 70 nations, more than one per year since World War II, and has now come full circle to re-militarize  Japan.

A new campaign to abolish nuclear weapons is growing fast and deserves our support. But today, Japan is being re-militarized. And once again, the U.S. government imagines it will like the results. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with U.S. support, is reinterpreting this language in the Japanese Constitution:

“[T]he Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. … [L]and, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained.”

The new “reinterpretation,” accomplished without amending the Constitution, holds that Japan can maintain land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, and that Japan will use war or threaten war to defend itself, to defend any of its allies, or to take part in a U.N.-authorized war anywhere on earth. Abe’s “reinterpretation” skills would make the U.S. Office of Legal Counsel blush.

U.S. commentators are referring to this shift in Japan as “normalization” and are expressing outrage at Japan’s failure to engage in any wars since World War II. The U.S. government will now expect Japan’s participation in any threat or use of war against China or Russia. But accompanying the return of Japanese militarism is the rise of Japanese nationalism, not Japanese devotion to U.S. rule. And even the Japanese nationalism is not weak in Okinawa, where the movement to evict U.S. military bases grows stronger all the time.

In re-militarizing Japan, rather than demilitarizing itself, the United States is playing with fire.

Two security consultants have created a new computer worm, the Thunderstrike 2, that attacks the core hardware of a Mac computer once unleashed. The worm was designed to expose vulnerabilities in the once-assumed airtight security of Apple products. The worm works by attacking the computer’s firmware, the software that comes pre-installed and loads the operating system. Firmware provides control, monitoring and data manipulation in engineering products or systems.

The cybersecurity research work on the worm was carried out by Xeno Kovah, owner of LegbaCore, and Trammell Hudson, a security engineer with Two Sigma Investments.

According to the researchers, an attack can occur via a phishing email (an email sent from a fake “trusted institution” like a bank) or a malicious website containing the worm. Once activated, the malware would look out for any peripherals connected to the computer, such as an Ethernet adapter, which it would then infect. The worm could then spread to any other computer to which the adapter gets connected. Once connected, the worm writes malicious code to the firmware of the MacBook.

One way to randomly infect machines would be to sell infected Ethernet adapters on eBay, or infect them in a factory, Wired reported. “[The attack is] really hard to detect… it’s really hard to get rid of,” Kovah told Wired. “It’s really hard to protect against something that’s running inside the firmware…for most users that’s really a throw-your-machine-away kind of situation.”

Thunderstrike 2 can’t be removed with traditional anti-malware security program, either. It requires programming the computer’s chip.

Kovah and Kallenberg said that the worm was developed to showcase vulnerabilities in Apple devices. According to Vice, Apple has been notified has already fixed one type of vulnerability and partially patched another. Three are still unresolved.

Wired reported that last year Kovah and his partner at Legbacore, Corey Kallenberg, exposed firmware vulnerabilities that affected 80 percent of PCs they examined.

“It turns out almost all of the attacks we found on PCs are also applicable to Macs,” Kovah said at the time. Kovah said they looked at six vulnerabilities and found that five of them affected Mac firmware. Their discovery showed that hardware makers tend to all use some of the same firmware code.

“Most of these firmwares are built from the same reference implementations, so when someone finds a bug in one that affects Lenovo laptops, there’s a really good chance it’s going to affect the Dells and HPs,” said Kovah. “What we also found is there is really high likelihood that the vulnerability will also affect Macbooks. Because Apple is using a similar EFI (BIOS) firmware.”

The consultants will showcase the worm at the Black Hat security conference in Las Vegas on Thursday. The goal is to push tech companies to take security more seriously. Kovah said some vendors are active about removing vulnerabilities in their firmware but others are not.

“We use our research to help raise awareness of firmware attacks, and show customers that they need to hold their vendors accountable for better firmware security,” Kovah told Vice News.

“The culture of impunity is encouraging the growing cases of abuse and murder of children in Bangladesh”, said the popular rights activist Sultana Kamal a press conference organized by the ‘Child Rights Advocacy Coalition in Bangladesh’ at the National Press Club in Dhaka.

“Why can’t we think that the individuals have an obligation to prevent such crimes… we’ll have to change this culture of silence. Social resistance is a force. We must evoke a desire to resist … Why do five people remain silent when three beat a child?” asked Kamal, stressing that the murders of Samiul Alam Rajan, 13, in Sylhet and Rakib Hawladar, 12, in Khulna were not ‘isolated’ incidents, but signs of social decadence.

In an appeal to the political scene and government, the activist also emphasized that those involved in such cruelty are not being held to account and often, with complicity of state officials, allowed to flee the country.

According to Abdus Shahid Mahmood, director of Bangladesh Shishu Forum Adhikar (BSFA), 191 children were killed and 280 raped in the January-July period. “Just in July, 37 children were murdered and 50 raped. This scenario is extremely disturbing. It will deteriorate if the government doesn’t take step to prevent them”, Mahmood warned.

By Prof. B.R. Deepak

In the post-Mao era, owing to the institutionalisation of the offices of the top guns, leadership change and power transition have become more transparent and predictable. However, the feud between the factions is not as simplistic as was during the 1980s when Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang were disgraced for being liberals, while Deng Xiaoping who ironically emerged as the biggest liberals as far as economic reforms were concerned but never shunned his political conservatism as could be seen during the Tiananmen protests. Post Deng power dynamics are more complex and rather sophisticated as it would be seen through the events folding before and after the 18th Party Congress in 2012, however, the historic dichotomy of reformers and conservatives has remained more or less intact albeit we find more factions in present day China.

The Factions

It is extremely important to understand the power dynamics in China; for these have serious implications for China’s next stage reforms, and national as well as foreign policy priorities. Over the years five to six factions have emerged from the struggle within the party.

First is the so called ‘princelings’ or the taizidang（太子党) consisting of the descendents of the first generation revolutionaries. Four in the present Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) namely Xi Jinping, Yu Zhengsheng (Chairman CPPCC), Wang Qishan (CCDI) and Zhang Dejiang (Chairman NPC) are princelings.

Second faction is the Youth League Faction or the so called tuanpai （团派） having their roots in the Chinese Communist Youth League (共青团). Hu Jintao being from this faction elevated people to higher positions during his reign. Present Prime Minister Li Keqiang also belongs to this faction.

The third is the powerful Shanghai Clique or the so called Shanghaibang（上海帮）, the people who had worked in Shanghai Municipal Administration under Jiang Zemin or those who have been associated with Jiang and rose to prominence once Jinag was at the helm of Chinese politics. For example, in the PSC, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Zhang Gaoli and Zhang Dejiang are still considered as pro-Jiang figures. However, as Jiang retired from the office in 2003, the influence of this clique has waned.

Fourth faction consists of neoliberal reformers or gaigepai （改革派）who advocate greater economic and political freedom. These are Guangdong based, and the voice is found in Wang Yang, present politburo member as well as one of the four vice premiers of the State Council. He has handled crises well, contradicted the Central leadership on many occasions. Two such examples are not paying head to the bankruptcies of the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in Guangdong in the wake of 2008 financial crisis, contrary to Wen Jiabao’s advocacy that bankruptcies will cause unemployment; secondly he successfully handled the Wukan crisis in 2011 when he allowed people to exercise universal franchise to choose their representative in village elections. Fifth and very nationalistic faction is the neo-Maoists or the baoshoupai （保守派 ）who argue that the state must be strengthened and the ‘state capitalism’ an alliance of rich and the powerful must be destroyed. Finally there are neo-Confucianists who lament on the dwindling moral values in China, and wish to revert to China’s soft power, and sell the same globally.

Notwithstanding the factions, there are no clear cut demarcations between the ranks and files of these factions. For example, Bo Xilai, one time contenders of China’s top post was from the ‘princeling’ faction but was a hard core neo-Maoist. It was he who initiated the so called ‘singing red songs and strike hard the criminals’ (唱红打黑) campaign in Sichuan, and perhaps became the second Lin Biao in Chinese history. This faction uses Mao as their shield, and has extreme nationalistic tendencies. Bo Xilai and the so called angry youths or fenqing（愤青）is a point of reference. The omission to Mao Zedong’s thought in their speeches and debates by Jiang Zemin, especially Hu Jintao and now by Xi has provided the ‘Maoist’ an opportunity to reemphasise values of Mao’s revolution and dislodge the reformers. However, so far the reformers have had an upper hand. If Wang Yang could be considered as a neo-liberalist, he is also a tuanpai. It was under Hu Jintao’s regime that he served in various provinces such as Anhui, Chongqing, before Bo Xilai took over in 2007 and then Guangdong. The same is true for the Shanghai Clique, for, four of the present Standing Committee members Yu Zhengsheng, Wang Qishan and Zhang Dejiang are ‘princelings’ at the same time. Therefore, there are no clear cut distinctions between the factions, one may cross lines depending on the circumstances, for example Zhou Yongkang could be considered a Jiang protégée but Jiang agreed to panelise him when approached by Xi when Zhou-Bo nexus got exposed.

Clearing the Factional Fog

It had become clear prior to the 18th Party Congress that the Shanghai faction’s appointees were in power struggle with Xi Jinping. The man behind the scene was pro Jiang heavyweight Zhou Yongkang, who after making it to the Politburo in 2002 was also made the Minister of Public Security in the same year. In 2007, he made it to the Standing Committee of the Politburo, and also the chairman of the Central Political and Legislative Affairs Commission, an organ that oversees all legal enforcement authorities, including the police. Zhou’s power stretched into various apparatuses of the state including courts, police, paramilitary and intelligence. The defence budget of Public security in 2014 reached $114 billion more than the declared defence budget of China. It was during this period that Zhou installed his own people at Centre, provinces, and oil and gas industry. At Centre he wished to promote Bo Xilai as the head of the Central Political and Legislative Affairs Commission, in oil and gas there was his son Zhou Bin, and others like Jiang Jiemin, and in the provinces primarily Sichuan he controlled politics and industry through a mining tycoon Liu Han who was executed early this year for corruption, underworld crimes, smuggling of arms and murder.

Striking hard on corruption has been used by various Chinese leaders to boost their own public image, and at times quite selective. Bo Xilai’s campaign ‘singing red songs and striking hard on criminals’ was no different and was endorsed by Zhou Yongkang during his Chongqing visit in 2010. In fact it was Zhou again who informed Bo about Chongqing Police Chief finding asylum in the US consulate in 2012, where he spilled the beans about British businessman Neil Heywood’s murder by Bo’s wife. It was also Zhou who told Bo how to deal with Wang Lijun’s defection to the US consulate, as revealed by Bo during his trial in August 2013. ‘Leaking state secrets’ by Zhou was none other than the fact that he warned Bo Xilai in 2012 that Bo was about to be ousted. The scandal not only halted Bo’s campaign as a credible contender to the CPC’s top post but also opened up a Pandora’s box which now implicated his patron Zhou Yongkang too. The feud more than the individuals is a classic example of feud between the reformers and the conservatives. Bo’s downfall has put the neo-Maoists on the back foot; however, they may stage a comeback if the vacuum left by Bo is filled by some other strongman.

It is also clear that irrespective of your affiliation to a particular faction, there is widespread corruption and abuse of power among high-ranking leaders of the CPC. The nepotism and cronyism exposed by a recent weibo post is a classic example; the post has been deleted within hours since it surfaced for violating China’s law. The post titled ‘Political Conmen of a County’ by Peng Junqi, a Ph.D researcher at China’s prestigious university reveals that in Xinye county in Henan, of 2018 cadres he interviewed at section and director level without exception hailed from 161 political families generation after generation, and it was impossible for an outsider to join the bureaucratic ranks in this county.

Xi successful in silencing his detractors?

Unlike Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai, Xi Jinping has no solid power base. Nonetheless, he has proved that he has handled the statecraft with a master strategy. Xi has neither aligned himself to the reformers nor the conservatives, for he is aware that both the reformers and conservatives are very strong in China; siding with anyone will invite huge trouble. Conversely, he has unfolded an agenda that has forced both the camps to lend their support to Xi. For example his pet project China Dream is not his creation as generally attributed to, rather it was a PLA colonel, Liu Mingfu who wrote a book titled China Dream: Great Power Thinking and Strategic Posture in the Post American Era in 2009 and expounded the notion. The book is typical of Maoist and Sino-centric ideology; it was written to denounce the ‘peaceful development of China’ by the reformists. It may be remembered that the word ‘peaceful rise’ was replaced with ‘peaceful development’ in a white paper by the Chinese government in 2006. Colonel Liu rather advocates military rise of China and believes that China should surpass the US as number one military power of the world. No wonder the book was so popular and Hu Jintao had to ban the reprinting of the book for the fear of making the Maoists too strong. Under Xi, reprint of the book has been allowed. In the same vein, Xi took the notion of ‘Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road’ an idea of the reformists that is been increasingly seen as a game changer as far as geo-economics and geo-politics across continents is concerned. Obviously, there are other factors such as ‘pivot to Asia’ and the ‘Trans Pacific Partnership’ of the US, which according to China is aimed at containing China. Therefore, Xi has displayed enormous wisdom, patience and ultimate art of statecraft in dealing with his detractors.

Secondly, in order to diminish the influence of Zhou Yongkang in China’s security apparatus, in an unprecedented move Xi created National Security Commission, which controls the police, intelligence and judicial apparatuses and became its Chairman. In order to keep the reformists under his command, he created Central Leading Group for Comprehensibly Deepening Reforms and became its head. In other words he has been successful in rallying both the conservatives and reformers around him.

Taking on the Military

Thirdly, cleansing the ‘Military tigers’ is another act analysts see Xi consolidating his power. The biggest catch has been General Xu Caihou, former Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) held for cash for rank. Recently another General and also a former Vice Chairman of the CMC, Guo Boxiong has been dismissed from the party and is being investigated for corruption. It has been reported that there are 38 more people being investigated for ‘serious discipline breach.’ Yang Jinshan, second in command of the Chengdu Military Division is another. There are other ‘military tigers’ that have benefited from Xu’s and Guo’s positions and are being investigated. Lt. General Gu Junshan, former deputy director of the logistics department of the PLA is just one of them.

The fallout of these campaigns is that the stories of ‘a mistress behind every successful communist party official’ has disappeared all of a sudden, signifying the impact. The stories of jilted mistresses exposing the sexcapades and other wrong doing of the official, for example the case of Liu Tienan, former deputy chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission have almost disappeared. Liu was fired after his mistress revealed to media that he had embezzled $200 million from banks. Though there are cases such as Ling Jihua, former head of the central committee’s United Front Work Department, and once top aide of former president Hu Jintao. His abuse of power was exposed in March 2012 when his son Ling Gu died in a Ferrari accident that has one nude and another semi nude girl on board. A debate set the social media ablaze as to how a son of a party official can afford $800,000 car!

The intensity of the anti corruption drive in China is indeed great, and the people are supportive of President Xi’s drive. Last year alone, the CCDI investigated 68 high ranking official, and punished more than 70,000 officials for graft. Since last January, it has also launched an official website, www.ccdi.gov.cn that allows netizens or the whistleblowers to interact with disciplinary officials. Wang Qishan, head of the CCDI has said that the site will be a bridge between the public and anti-corruption agencies. It appears that the drive will be a long drawn battle, and many in China fear that may well lead to troubles for President Xi Jinping.

Difficult to penetrate China’s inner circles

Chan Kai Yee has written an excellent book titled Tiananmen’s Tremendous Achievements: The Silent, Peaceful Coup D’état in China (2011). In one of the sections, he talks about China’s inner circles which he calls black boxes and says that it is extremely difficult to penetrate into these. According to Chan, the first is the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), the second is the group of powerful elders who are heads and important heavyweights of various factions. The third is the secret security department that is even more difficult to penetrate. When a new leadership is chosen in 2017, only 14 of the present 25 politburo members would be eligible to continue. Of these 9 are from tuanpai and 5 from ‘shanghai clique’ implying that Hu Jintao’s and Jiang Zemin’s protégées will still be able to have some influence. However, if Xi is able to erode the influence of these factions, we will see him emerging even stronger in 2017.

If Xi proved to be a weak leader, not only he is doomed to failure, but the CPC’s credibility and legitimacy will also be at stake. Therefore, the campaign against corruption is a mean to strengthen and consolidate his position, and also to salvage the CPC out of the crisis. It is obvious that the power struggle within the CPC has changed in form and substance; if denouncing each other in Marxist-Leninist-Maoist jargons has long been dropped out, so is the fashion of ‘big-character posters’ or so called dazibao (大字报)，intimidating opponents by pinning political levels, and mass violence. Nowadays, the detractors are condemned by revealing out their debauchery and favours curried by them to their friends and relatives, and the wealth they have ill-gotten over the years.

Reams are being written about lack of India’s Pakistan policy or more specifically policy to impose costs for waging relentless proxy war through terrorist organizations, subversion in Kashmir and indigenous Indian organizations like SIMI and IM. These terrorist outfits are being subverted by ideologically driven radicalism.

This is coming about in the face of open provocations by the likes of Hamid Gul who are challenging India to respond in kind if it has the gumption. NSA, in his recent remarks in Mumbai has talked about ‘proportionate response’ to Pakistani provocations but the larger question is options in the face of calculated Pakistan strategy of provoking India.

Years of neglect and impervious political decision making has resulted in non development of credible asymmetric capabilities even as Pakistan continues to blame India for activities in Karachi or Baluchistan. There is no point in crying over spilt milk, these asymmetric capabilities will require time and political resolve to develop. This leaves India very much with the option of punitive conventional response. There is a tendency among the strategic community which percolates to policy makers that conventional Indian response that could provoke Pakistan’s nuclear thresholds. This notion needs detailed analysis and Pakistan’s bluff called.

India needs to unequivocally declare that India’s see’s unabated proxy war as breakdown of conventional deterrence and reserves the right to appropriate military response. Mere articulation will not be enough? India’s standoff military or what is euphemistically called “non contact” capabilities must be exploited and demonstrated. This will require close coordination between intelligence agencies and the armed forces. Possible option could be targeting various elements of terror network and their support structures which can be internationally highlighted as state sponsored. No doubt there will be noise and brinkmanship by Pakistan and even some military action, it will be important for Indian state to not only ride these out but inflict retaliatory punitive costs. What is being proposed is cross border strikes on targets (not merely camps) which India believes supports the terror network.

Second is developing capability and capacities for “Myanmar Raid” like operation. Action will be required to degrade surveillance and communication systems, backed by credible force insertion capability. Without going into too much details idea is to demonstrate will and resolve. These actions must be initiated in the backdrop of limited mobilization of conventional forces and quick response if so required. There is no doubt that Pakistan will respond by some sort of military action however surprise and speed of action backed by credible retaliatory capability will provide requites payoffs. This will require orchestration of operations both at military and national levels including diplomatic shaping of environment. The notion that Pakistan is operating on interior lines is a myth. With recent redeployments in Northern and Western commands adequate forces are available for quick response backed by credible and deterrent air power, which must be the backbone given are relative air superiority.

There are many other options which can be considered to demonstrate Indian will and resolve. These no doubt have escalatory nuances, but what is the point of raving about conventional superiority if it cannot be leveraged. There is perception in Pakistani military elites whom the author has been meeting in Track II Dialogues over last three years that India has no response to proxy war and conventional escalation can be checkmated by battlefield nuclear weapons. It is this myth India will have to challenge and debase. No doubt it carries a risk but sooner than later Indian state will have to demonstrate this resolve if it does want to be subsumed by rising tide of radicalism and Pakistan’s state sponsored terror. If any lessons are to be drawn we should look at what happened in 1971 war and how Pakistani forces capitulated against Indian manoeuvre and resolve. The doctrine of ‘retribution’ already stands vindicated in the NATO and American air strikes against ISIL in Iraq, Syria and Libya.

Perception of Sino – Pak collusion is overplayed particularly the two front war. Chinese are pragmatic; they realize the scenario of ongoing India – Pakistan confrontation is going to be harmful to its one road – one belt policy on which hinges its economic development and extended sphere of influence. Any precipitate action by Chinese will surely and firmly push India into American camp a development which will be grievous to its Asian and global ambitions. Pakistan it must be realized is a bit player with nuclear weapons, who’s utility in the “Great Asian Game” at best is marginal. From Chinese perspective strong Indian economic and military power which is antagonistic to China will be antithesis to its ambitions. Therefore it will be nuanced player which can be balanced by broader Indo – Pacific partnerships that India is attempting to evolve. Put simply there are limits to which China will go in supporting Pakistan?

So coming back to Pakistan, I am afraid in the developing scenario, India should go through the current round of bilateral negotiations with Pakistan impressing upon them the consequences of its support to cross border terror and the proxy war. It is very unlikely Pakistan will take heed, knowing a little about their thinking and mindset. It is when they try and exploit our perceived weakness India should retaliate suddenly, resolutely and without respite. Message of retribution and costs must be driven home.

Last word: such a policy or option cannot succeed without bipartisan support. This is an imperative. In its resolve to take military action perpetrated by Pakistan; nation must stand firm and united. Unless we develop such credible response capability and political resolve India will continue to bleed not only in J&K or Punjab but across its length and breadth. Indian dream will be truly and fully become unrealizable.