Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73702 articles
Browse latest View live

Sri Lanka Says All Set For General Elections

$
0
0

All necessary arrangements have been made to conduct free and fair General elections scheduled for Monday, according to the Sri Lanka government.

There are 12,314 polling stations in the 22 administrative districts while the total number of registered voters for this General Election is 15,044,490.

According to the government, 125,000 officials will be deployed for election duty on the day of the election.

Ballot boxes will be delivered to the voting centers on the 13th. According to the Department of Elections more than 70000 officers will be engaged in counting of votes.


Iran’s New Peace Plan For Syria – OpEd

$
0
0

Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has unveiled a new “peace plan” for Syria in his latest visit to Damascus, after consultation with the Lebanese officials who greeted him warmly. This is a four-point peace plan that is an updated version of an earlier plan that called for the cessation of hostilities, a five-year transition government, respect for Syria’s sovereignty, the expulsion of foreign terrorists, and political dialogue among Syrians.

Having visited Qatar and Kuwait prior to his trips to Lebanon and Syria, Zarif is confident that unlike in the past, when Iran’s initiatives were ignored, this time it is different and Tehran’s proposed peace plan can gain regional and international traction. This peace plan was reportedly discussed with the Syrian foreign minister, who visited Tehran last week, and therefore is not a big surprise for the embattled Bashar al-Assad, who has seen his government’s hold on the country shrink considerably throughout 2015.

It is now up to the major stakeholders, both internally and externally, to reflect positively on the Zarif plan and give a big nod to peace. Hopefully, Turkey, which has substantially increased its direct involvement in the Syrian theater recently and hosts close to 2 million Syrian refugees, will discover some redeeming values in Zarif’s initiative; Zarif has postponed his trip to Turkey and should the road for his visit be cleared in the near future, that is a good omen for peace in Syria.

As for the United States and Europeans, who have called for Bashar’s removal, the importance of Zarif’s plan in presenting a political window to explore the endgame for Syria’s bloody four-year conflict, this is an important moment of decision that should not be missed by opting for the wrong options. It is generally recognized that ISIS is expanding its influence in Syria and the longer the present conflict lasts the better it is for ISIS and other al-Qaeda affiliated groups. Even Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has recognized the threat that Syria can turn into an ISIS country. It is therefore common sense that the countries fighting the ISIS menace should unite around a concrete plan of action to combat ISIS inside Syria.

One of the complicating factors is the Turkey-Kurds antagonism that dictates Ankara’s Syria policy in favor of tilting in favor of the Syrian opposition, including the fundamentalist Jihadists who want to turn Syria into a puritan Islamic state. As a result, there is definite need for closer cooperation and coordination among the actors and stakeholders opposed to the ISIS phenomenon, but it must come with the assurance to Turkey that the net beneficiary will not be a future Kurdish state, otherwise Turkey will continue with its current approach of hostility toward Damascus without a moment’s pause to reflect on the soundness of its overall approach, given the recent U.S.-Turkey agreement that allows U.S. use of Turkish bases to launch attacks on ISIS from Turkish bases.

In view of the gravity of the Syrian crisis and the need for closer regional and international cooperation to tackle the sources of conflict in war-torn Syria, Tehran and Ankara must set aside their secondary differences and embark on a common cause for stability in Syria. This would be in line with the two countries’ current plans to boost their trade in the post-sanctions environment. But, should there be no progress on Syria and Turkey continues with its current semi-interventionist policy on Syria, then there is no doubt that this will have adverse consequences for Iran-Turkey relations.

In terms of bilateral relations, Tehan and Ankara have decent relations — that are complicated by the web of third party inputs that have turned out to be largely negative and even destructive. But, as stated above, the new hope is that with the resolution of the nuclear stand-off there is a new sail in Iran’s Syrian initiative that, in turn, ought to be taken seriously by the world community.

New Tools Increase Palestine’s Capacity To Face Earthquakes

$
0
0

Palestine has faced hundreds of earthquakes since the beginning of the year. Thanks to the SASPARM and SASPARM 2.0 projects, the next generation of citizens and researchers will be better equipped to face this growing threat.
New tools increase Palestine’s capacity to face earthquakes

“We [in Palestine] have modest and undeveloped capacities that do not allow us to face earthquakes and their repercussions well,” Moufid al-Hasayneh, minister of public works and housing, tolds Al-Monitor. He knows that this lack of capacity needs to be filled as soon as possible if Palestine is to face the growing threat of earthquakes and its potential impact on human lives.

According to recent reports, a massive earthquake would lead to the devastation of 70 % of houses in the country, and the death of 16 000 people. As Palestine is located in the Rift Valley – right at the frontier between the Arabian and African plates which are moving farther apart – the likelihood of earthquakes is expected to keep increasing. The country needs more resistant buildings, better public awareness and improved trainings for young researchers in order to face this threat.

This is precisely what the SASPARM and SASPARM 2 projects are bringing to the table. The first one, which was completed at the end of November 2014, aimed to increase the An-Najah National University’s competitiveness as a research centre in the field of seismic risk mitigation and disaster management. Among other things, a database of existing research data was created, knowledge gaps were identified, courses on structural engineering were organized. The project also began initiatives to increase general public awareness and established networks of researchers in the context of the European Research Area (ERA).

“Hundreds of engineers in the field of planning and designing buildings that are resistant to earthquakes were trained, and dozens of sessions and workshops on the topic have been held,” said Jalal Dabbeek, director of the Earth Sciences and Seismic Engineering Center and coordinator of the project.

But this was only the first stage of a longer term endeavour. In January 2015, SASPARM 2.0 was initiated with further support from the EU, and will be running until the end of 2017.

“This second stage aims at promoting [Palestine’s] capacities in facing earthquakes by training civil defense cadres and developing the skills of engineers. We hope to improve the existing buildings through computerized programmes and smartphones that save information about the house of each citizen. This would help in building a database to discover the likelihood of these houses being affected. Buildings will also undergo a field survey, and awareness campaigns will be increased in the media,” Dabbeek said.

The consortium, which also includes EUCENTRE and the Institute for Advanced Study of Pavia (IUSS), will notably develop a web portal where the likes of students, citizens, practitioners, governmental organisations and NGOs will be able to add and manage data related to buildings. All in all, this initiative is expected to increase the reliability of seismic risk estimations.

Source: CORDIS

Is Putin Planning To Sell-Out Assad? – OpEd

$
0
0

Moscow’s geostrategic objectives in Syria are the polar opposite of Washington’s. Grasping this simple fact is the easiest way to get a fix on what’s really going on in the war-torn country.

What Washington wants is explained in great detail in a piece by Michael E. O’Hanlon at the Brookings Institute titled “Deconstructing Syria: A new strategy for America’s most hopeless war”. Here’s an excerpt:

“…the only realistic path forward may be a plan that in effect deconstructs Syria….the international community should work to create pockets with more viable security and governance within Syria over time…

Creation of these sanctuaries would produce autonomous zones that would never again have to face the prospect of rule by either Assad or ISIL….

The interim goal might be a confederal Syria, with several highly autonomous zones… The confederation would likely require support from an international peacekeeping force….to make these zones defensible and governable….The autonomous zones would be liberated with the clear understanding that there was no going back to rule by Assad or a successor.”

(“Deconstructing Syria: A new strategy for America’s most hopeless war“, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Brookings Institute)

Forget about ISIS and Syrian President Bashar al Assad for a minute and, instead, focus on the terms  “autonomous zones”,  “creation of …sanctuaries”,  “safe zones” and “a confederal Syria.”

All of these strongly suggest that the primary aim of US policy is to break Syria up into smaller units that pose no threat to US-Israeli regional hegemony. This is the US gameplan in a nutshell.

In contrast, Russia does not want a divided Syria. Aside from the fact that Moscow and Damascus are long-term allies (and Russia has a critical naval facility in Tartus, Syria), a balkanized Syria poses serious threats for Russia, the most significant of which is the probable emergence of a jihadi base of operations that will be used to deploy terrorists across Central Asia thus undermining Moscow’s grand plan to integrate the continents into a giant free trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok.  Russian President Vladimir Putin takes the threat of terrorism very seriously, which is why he has been working around-the-clock to engage leaders from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran, the Kurds and Syrian opposition groups in negotiations to put an end to the fighting and reestablish security in Syria.  It’s worth noting that there’s been an effective blackout of these crucial negotiations in the western media, mainly because they make Putin look like a peacemaker who is respected among other world leaders and who is making every effort to stop the spread of terrorism. Obviously, that doesn’t jibe with the media’s portrayal of Putin as the new Hitler, so they’ve simply omitted the meetings from their coverage.

The differences between the US and Russia are irreconcilable. Washington wants and end to the nation-state system and create a new world order, while Putin wants to maintain the current system in order to preserve national sovereignty, self determination, and multi-polarity.  This is the basis of the clash between Russia and the US. Putin rejects unipolar global rule and is working as fast as he can to build a coalition capable of resisting persistent US intervention, manipulation and aggression.  This is no small task, and it involves a great deal of discretion. Putin does not have the wherewithal to confront the US Goliath at every turn, so he must pick his fights carefully and operate largely in the shadows, which is what he is doing.

In the last few months, Putin has convened meetings with all the main players in the Syria drama, and has made remarkable headway in resolving the crisis. The main sticking point now, is whether Assad will remain as president or be removed as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the US demand. Putin is resisting this outcome for many reasons. First, he doesn’t be seen as betraying an ally which would seriously hurt his reputation as a reliable partner. Second, he can’t allow himself to comply with a “regime change” doctrine that eschews international law and that could eventually be used against him in a future coup.  Allowing foreign leaders to pick and choose who is a “legitimate” leader and who isn’t is a prescription for disaster, as is evident in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and now Yemen. Finally, Putin cannot simply hand Washington an easy victory on a matter of this magnitude although, in the end, Assad will probably be gone.

So, what’s been going on behind the scenes?

Back in June, Putin met with  the Saudi Crown Prince and Defence Minister Mohammad bin Salman in St Petersburg an started working on an “international legal framework for creating a coalition to fight terrorism in the region.”  Soon after, he met with the heads of opposition groups and high-ranking officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.  The goal was to implement the so-called Geneva communiqué that was ratified in June 30, 2012. In brief, Geneva provides for:

Establishment of a transitional governing body with full executive powers that could include members of the government and opposition, and should be formed on the basis of mutual consent.

Participation of all groups and segments of society in Syria in a meaningful national dialogue process

Review of the constitutional order and the legal system

Free and fair multi-party elections for the new institutions and offices that have been established.

As you can see, Geneva does not resolve the central issue, which is: “Does Assad stay or go?”  That question is not answered definitively.  It  all depends of composition of the “transitional governing body” and the outcome of future elections.

Clearly, this is the result that Putin wanted. Here’s how Lavrov summed it up two days ago:

“I have already said, Russia and Saudi Arabia support all principles of the June 30, 2012 Geneva communique, in particular, the need to preserve government institutions, including the Syrian army. I believe its participation in the effective struggle against terrorists is truly essential.

I have already said that though we hold identical positions on the settlement of the crisis, we also have our differences, and one of them concerns the destiny of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. We believe that all issues of settlement, including the parameters of the transitional period and political reforms, should be resolved by Syrians themselves. The Geneva communique reads that these issues should be resolved by consensus between the Government and the entire spectrum of opposition forces.”

You can see by this statement what Putin really wants. He wants to “preserve government institutions, including the Syrian army” to avoid another Iraq-type nightmare scenario. (Note: Remember what happened to Iraq after Bremer disbanded the army.) What he doesn’t want, is to create a power-vacuum that leads to another failed, balkanized hellhole that serves as a breeding ground for terrorists that will eventually come knocking on Moscow’s door. He doesn’t want that at all. That only serves Washington’s objectives, not Russia’s.

Also, the whole idea of a “transitional governing body” and “free and fair multi-party elections” gives Putin a way to back away from Assad without looking like he’s throwing him under the bus.

Some will probably criticize this and say that Putin is “selling out a friend and ally”, but that’s not entirely true. He’s trying to balance two opposing things at the same time. He’s trying to maintain his commitment to an ally while accommodating Saudi Arabia so they agree to help him to end the hostilities. So, yes, there is a bit of triangulation involved, but what choice does he have?  In practical terms, he can either strike a deal fast or allow the window of opportunity to slam shut.

Why?

Because Washington doesn’t want a deal. Washington wants war. Washington cannot achieve its goal of breaking up Syria and redrawing the map of the Middle East if peacemaker Putin prevails. Let’s put it this way: If Putin gets Saudi Arabia on board, then a good portion of the funding for jihadi groups will dry up,  the Syrian Army, assisted by Iraqi and Kurdish forces, will have greater success on the battlefield, and ISIS will be annihilated.

How does that serve Washington’s interests?

It doesn’t. And even if Assad is removed, the process (Geneva) is such that the next president is not going to be a hand-picked US stooge, but someone who is supported by the majority of the Syrian people. Needless to say, Washington doesn’t like that idea.

The only glitch to the plan is that Putin must move very fast. The US has already gotten the green-light from Ankara to launch its drone attacks and bombing raids from Incirlik air base in Turkey, which means the conflict is going to intensify in the weeks and months to come. Also, Turkey’s hardline President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appears to be using the US aerial attacks as cover for stealing Syrian sovereign territory in the North and declaring it a “safe zone”.  Get a load of this clip from an August 11 article in the International Business Times:

“A group of ethnic Turkmen fighters arrived in Azaz, Syria, on Monday afternoon to launch the first phase of a joint U.S.-Turkish initiative to establish an Islamic State group-free “safe zone” in the country, two soldiers fighting in northern Syria told International Business Times via Skype. Tanks carrying the fighters entered through the Bab al-Salama border, crossing from southeastern Turkey into the town of Azaz, Syria, setting off a wave of attacks by the Islamic State militant group, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in the town of Marea, which forced the al-Qaeda extremist group Jabhat al-Nusra to retreat.

“At first everyone thought the tanks were filled with Turkish soldiers, but it was the Turkmen,” one of the rebel fighters said.

The soldiers, interviewed Tuesday by IBTimes, were trained in Turkey and are in one of the biggest moderate-opposition rebel coalitions in the country. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they are in combat. Shifting alliances among rebel groups in the country have left them fearing retribution if they identified themselves on the record. One of the soldiers, a commander, recently attended talks with the Turkish government in the capital city of Ankara regarding the Turkish-U.S. plan to create a safe zone in the northern part of the country.” (“Turkey, US, Syrian ISIS-Free Safe Zone: Turkmen Brigades Move Into Syria, Al-Nusra Moves Out, Soldiers Say“, IBT)

So, Turkish tanks loaded with troops that have been armed and trained by Turkey, cross the border into Syria where they are expected to clear and capture territory up to and perhaps including Aleppo?

That sounds a lot like an invasion to me; how about you?

Bottom line: If Putin wants to prevent Washington from splitting up Syria and transforming it into a terrorist breeding ground, he’s going to have to move fast; get the Saudis on board, put an end to the bloodshed, and implement Geneva.

It’s not going to be easy, but he seems to be on the right track.

Jewish Terrorists – OpEd

$
0
0

SOME OF my best friends demand that I write an article condemning unconditionally the “administrative detention” of Jewish terrorists.

Three suspected terrorists have already been arrested under this procedure.

They are members of a group following the teachings of Rabbi Meir Kahane (the leader is actually his grandson). Kahane was an American Rabbi who came to this country and founded a group branded by the Supreme Court as racist and anti-democratic. It was outlawed. He was later assassinated by an Arab in the US. An underground group of his followers is now active in Israel.

This is one of the groups which belong to a clandestine movement, generally called “Price Tag” or “Hilltop Youth”, that has conducted various acts of terrorism, setting fire to Christian churches and Muslim mosques, attacking Arab farmers and destroying their olive trees. None of the perpetrators has ever been apprehended, either by the army, which acts as a police force in the occupied territories, nor by the police in Israel proper. Many army officers are themselves residents of settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law.

The Israeli public has paid little attention to these outrages, but lately things have happened that shocked even complacent Israelis. One was the firebombing of an Arab dwelling in the small village of Douma in the West Bank. Under cover of darkness, a fire bomb was thrown into the home of a poor Arab family. An 18 month-old baby was burned to death, his father, mother and brother were seriously injured. The father later died in hospital.

Such acts of firebombing are quite usual, though until now the Arab families succeeded in saving themselves.

Another outrage was committed in Jerusalem – against Jews. An ultra-orthodox Jew attacked the annual gay pride march in the center of the city. He succeeded in stabbing several marchers, one of whom – a 16 year-old girl – later died of her wounds. The perpetrator had done exactly the same 10 years ago. He served a long prison term, was released a few weeks ago and did it again. He is an ultra-orthodox Jew, but seemingly has no connection with the Kahanist gang.

This was too much. For years, no one was ever indicted for acts of Jewish terrorism. Many believe that the acts were committed in collusion with the occupation army and the Shin Bet, the interior security service. Now, however, there is a public outcry, and the authorities have come to the conclusion that they must do something.

Hence, the administrative detention orders.

ADMINISTRATIVE ARRESTS are a legacy of the British colonial regime that ruled Palestine until May 1948. The Israeli state took it over, changing only some minor aspects.

This form of arrest allows a military commander to put a person in prison without trial. The warrant is in force for six months, but can be renewed without limit. Every few months the prisoner must be brought before a regular judge, but judges interfere only on rare occasions. Mentally, Israeli judges stand at attention when a military officer testifies.

The prisoners have no right to see the evidence against them and confront their accusers, nor are they allowed to be represented by attorney. The official reason is that they cannot be put on trial without “burning” informants and other sources of valuable information that are vital to effectively combat terrorism and save lives.

THIS INSTRUMENT is used all the time against Arab suspects. At this moment, many hundreds of Arab administrative prisoners fill the prisons, some of them have been in custody for many years. Since the beginning of the occupation in 1967, hundreds of thousands of Arabs have been incarcerated under this act. For young Palestinians, this is almost a badge of honor.

Hardly any Jew has ever been held in administrative detention. For many years now, this means has not been used against Jews at all. The three Kahanists who were sent to prison this week are the first for a very long time.

Military and civilian officials explain this kind of detention as an essential and irreplaceable means to combat Jewish terrorism. All the Kahanists and other fascist perpetrators are trained to be silent under interrogation. Since they are sure that they will not be tortured, they have no reason to talk. They laugh in the faces of their interrogators.

Arab prisoners, of course, enjoy no such privilege. They know that if they don’t talk, they may be tortured. Under Israeli law, torture is forbidden, but the court allows something called “moderate physical pressure”, which achieves quick results.

Yet even so, many Arabs languish under unlimited administrative detention, because there is not enough legally admissible evidence to indict them in court, without endangering “sources”.

At present, the three Jews held in administrative detention are held in three different prisons, with more to join them soon, the Shin Bet promises.

MANY YEARS ago, when I was the editor-in-chief of the Haolam Hazeh news magazine, we published for a time an Arab-language edition. One day, one of my Arab employees – let’s call him Ahmed – was put in administrative detention.

When I started to raise hell, I got a surprise call from the Shin Bet. The relations between this organization and me were strained from the first day of the state. This may be an understatement, since their chief once officially defined me as the “No. 1 enemy of the regime”.

To my utmost surprise, a high-ranking Shin Bet officer invited me for a talk. “I am going to trust you with top secret information,” he said, “because I want you to understand our problems.”

He then told me that his people had caught a messenger who was sent to Israel by one of the major terrorist organizations to contact local collaborators. One of these was our Ahmed.

“What do you want us to do? We cannot put him on trial, because we have no proof that he is member of the organization. But leaving him free could result in deadly terrorist acts. Administrative detention is the only safe option.”

I did not believe that Ahmed was a terrorist. I was still thinking what to do, when I was saved from the dilemma. The Shin Bet agreed to release Ahmed, on condition the he leave the country. He went to the US and obtained a Green Card (perhaps with the help of Shin Bet). At one of my lectures there I saw him sitting in the front row. We embraced.

I AM telling this story for the first time in order to illustrate the dilemma. Letting these Jewish fascists roam freely could cost more Arab and Jewish lives, and perhaps a catastrophe, for example if they set fire to the holy Muslim shrines. There seems to be no solid evidence against them. If there are Shin Bet informers in this group, their testimony at a trial would “burn” them.

The Shin Bet and the police are accused by many of us of utter incompetence when confronted with Jewish terrorists, while being extremely efficient when confronted with Arab ones. Worse, we suspect the Shin Bet of being infiltrated by the settlers and of collaborating with them. Depriving the Shin Bet of the means of administrative detention may weaken them even more, or at least provide them with a pretext for total failure.

In my late childhood I witnessed the breakdown of the democratic “Weimar Republic” in Germany. The Nazi hoodlums were roaming the streets, beating up people who looked Jewish, exchanging fire with Communists. The government was ineffective. Police and army were infiltrated by Adolf Hitler’s party. Judges punished the communists severely, but often let the Nazi “patriots” off the hook.

Years later, when Germany lay in ashes, the Weimar Republic (so called, because its constitution was written in Weimar) was accused of cowardice, because it did not dare to use the instruments it had at its disposal – including non-democratic emergency powers – to fight the Nazis in time. Does the Israeli Republic want to risk the same fate?

It is a real dilemma. It demands real answers. Not the easy answers derived from the liberal handbook. Responsible answers. Answers which are relevant to the real world.

I believe that the Kahanists and the other fascist groups in today’s Israel are far more dangerous than most people believe. This is not a handful of wild weeds as we are led to believe. This is a national cancer that can spread quickly in our national body.

I have seen it before.

IT IS a difficult dilemma. For me, in any case.

Do we approve of administrative detention, detention without trial and democratic safeguards, perhaps saving thereby the lives of Arabs and Jews, perhaps preventing worse disasters?

Or do we uphold strict democratic principles, release all people held in administrative detention, Arabs and Jews alike, knowing that some of them will go on a killing spree?

After much soul-searching, I vote for the second option. Both for moral and pragmatic reasons.

Morally, I do not believe that one can fight the plague with cholera. Administrative detention is a fascist instrument, even when applied to fascists.

Practically, because it will not help. The detainees will be replaced by others, perhaps even worse ones.

There is also the danger that the arrest of a few will serve as an excuse for doing nothing against the many.

To fight this plague, we need better doctors. The Shin Bet, police and army must be cleansed of fascist sympathizers, officers loyal to the Israeli Republic must take their place. Jews and Arabs must receive the same treatment.

As the Bible commanded: “Let your camp be clean!”

Call For Egypt To Establish International Inquiry Into Rab’a Massacre

$
0
0

Egyptian authorities have held no government official or member of the security forces responsible for the mass killing of protesters in Cairo’s Rab’a al-Adawiya Square two years ago, note Human Rights Watch, adding that on August 14, 2013, security forces killed at least 817 people and most likely more than 1,000 at a mass sit-in in what probably amounted to crimes against humanity.

Given the Egyptian government’s refusal to properly investigate the killings or provide any redress for the victims, the United Nations Human Rights Council should establish an international commission of inquiry into the brutal clearing of the Rab’a al-Adawiya sit-in and other mass killings of protesters in July and August 2013. The African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights should establish a similar investigation.

“Washington and Europe have gone back to business with a government that celebrates rather than investigates what may have been the worst single-day killing of protesters in modern history,” said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East director. “The UN Human Rights Council, which has not yet addressed Egypt’s dangerous and deteriorating human rights situation, is one of the few remaining routes to accountability for this brutal massacre.”

The United States and Egypt’s European allies, rather than seriously addressing the rank impunity of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s government, contend that it is a national security priority to resume their relationships with Egypt, including providing Egypt with military aid and hardware.

The dispersal of the Rab’a al-Adawiya sit-in occurred on August 14, 2013, a little more than a month after the Egyptian military – under then-Defense Minister al-Sisi – removed Mohamed Morsy, Egypt’s first freely elected president and a former high-level official in the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsy’s ouster followed mass protests against his rule. Afterward, Brotherhood supporters and others opposed to the military’s actions held protests throughout Egypt. Security forces systematically confronted the protests with deadly force. Between Morsy’s ouster on July 3, 2013, and August 16, 2013, Human Rights Watch documented six instances when security forces unlawfully killed protesters, leaving at least 1,185 people dead.

The dispersal of the Rab’a al-Adawiya Square sit-in, where the crowd reached 85,000 at its height, was the worst of these incidents. The government announced its intention to clear the sit-in but did not announce a date. At first light on August 14, security forces using armored personnel carriers and snipers fired on the crowd with live ammunition shortly after playing a recorded announcement to clear the square through loudspeakers. Police provided no safe exit and fired on many who tried to escape.

Authorities had anticipated a high number of casualties; both Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim and Prime Minister Hazem al-Beblawy said publicly after the dispersal that they had expected that more protesters would have been killed. A year later, al-Beblawy was quoted as saying in an interview with al-Masry al-Youm, an independent newspaper, that “all options were bad” for resolving the sit-in and that anyone who “committed a mistake” should be sent to court.

Outrageous Charges Against Journalists In Ferguson

$
0
0

Reporters Without Borders has condemned the recent charges filed by the St. Louis County Police Department against two journalists who covered last year’s protests surrounding Michael Brown’s death in Ferguson.

The Washington Post reporter Wesley Lowery was charged with trespassing and interfering with a police officer. Charges were also filed against Huffington Post reporter Ryan J. Reilly who was arrested with Lowery on August 13 2014. The two journalists were charging their equipment in a Ferguson McDonald’s when police officers came in to clear the area. They arrested the two journalists after Lowery started recording the encounter and asked questions about contradictory orders to exit the restaurant. They were taken to the Ferguson Police Department and released after being briefly detained.

“Charging a reporter with trespassing and interfering with a police officer when he was just doing his job is outrageous. You’d have thought law enforcement authorities would have come to their senses about this incident. Wes Lowery should never have been arrested in the first place. That was an abuse of police authority. This latest action represents contemptible overreaching by prosecutors who seem to have no regard for the role of journalists seeking to cover a major story and following normal practice”, stated Martin Baron, The Washington Post’s executive editor.

Lowery and Reilly were among at least 15 journalists arrested during last year’s protests. Four of these journalists sued the St. Louis County Police Department for battery, false arrest, and unreasonable search and seizure.

This August’s protests were generally less violent than last year’s, but there have been reported moments of chaos, accounts of violence, and many protesters have been arrested.

Journalists sprayed and assaulted

According to Reporters Without Borders, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch staff photographer Robert Cohen was hit in the face with pepper spray while photographing street blockages on August 10, 2015. Contacted by Reporters Without Borders, Cohen explained that county police in riot gear demanded that people in the area move off the street and onto the sidewalk. Although Cohen said he complied with orders, police began to shout at a man on his right to move and then a steady stream of pepperspray was fired at the crowd, hitting Cohen directly. Thankfully he was watching the event through his camera lens and was spared any injury to his eyes.

He told Reporters Without Borders ,“I don’t know if I was targeted or not, but I certainly know that these two officers were yelling at one man and that a wide stream of spray was unnecessary. They certainly saw me right there, on the side of the road doing my job. I’m not new to the protests. I’ve been there since Aug[ust] 10, 2014. While they may not know my name […] [I] always have a press lanyard around my neck. Last year, members of the media were hit mostly with tear gas, but that is very hard to target […] it goes pretty much everywhere. But with these pepper spray containers, it is very easy to choose who is hit or not hit.”

Paul Hampel, another reporter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, was beaten and robbed Sunday night as he covered break-ins on West Florissant avenue. He was assaulted from behind, punched and kicked several times in the face and in the back of the head, and his cell phone and wallet were stolen, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He suffered a concussion and was kept at a hospital overnight for observation.

“My biggest concern last August was being arrested by police. This time around, my biggest concern is robbery – and our journalists have been working as teams to stay safe, ” explains Cohen.

Alarming trend

“The United States, the country of the First Amendment, cannot afford to keep journalists from reporting on major civil rights issues developing across the country. The ability of reporters to freely cover protests in response to rising tensions between police and minority communities is paramount in a democratic society and should not be hindered by violent attacks or arbitrary arrests”, affirms Delphine Halgand, the US Director of Reporters Without Borders. “We urge the US authorities to not leave police abuses unpunished and to do everything possible to guarantee the safety of journalists during protests.”

The arrests and attacks of journalists in Ferguson are unfortunately not isolated cases. At least two journalists were attacked or arrested by police during the Baltimore protests surrounding Freddie Gray’s death between April 12 and April 28 of this year.

These events mark an alarming trend of curtailing freedom of the press in the United States. Since 2013, the U.S.’s ranking on Reporters Without Borders’ World Press Freedom Index has fallen by 14 points. It is now ranked 49 out of 180 countries.

Furthermore, the United Nations Human Rights Council issued a highly critical report of the United States’ human rights record as part of its Universal Periodic Review on May 11, 2015. The report included 348 recommendations, many of which addressed police brutality and racial profiling.

“It is therefore now more important than ever that the U.S. reaffirm its commitment to freedom of the press and access to information in order to shed light on these abuses. National security and public order cannot take precedence over the most fundamental democratic tool for the protection and advancement of human rights,” says Halgand.

What Game Is Erdogan Playing? – OpEd

$
0
0

The domestic and foreign policies pursued by Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, may seem wayward and full of inconsistencies. But as William Shakespeare so appositely puts it: “though this be madness, yet there is method in it.”

It was on June 10, 2014 that the magnitude of the threat posed to regional and western interests by the Islamic State of the Levant (ISIL or ISIS, as it was then known), became apparent. That was the day they captured Iraq’s largest city, Mosul, to be followed by the surrounding province of Nineveh. On the following day Tikrit, another major city north of Baghdad, fell to them. Two weeks later their leader. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, changed the name of his organisation to Islamic State (IS), declared a cross-border Islamic “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria, and crowned himself caliph of all Muslims. This series of events precipitated the formation of a coalition of anti-IS interests, headed by the US. Shackled by a strict “no boots on the ground” policy, the coalition concentrated on provided training to anti-IS forces in Syria and Iraq, and backing their ground operations with massive air-strikes.

From all this, Turkey stood aloof. Erdogan – a Sunni with Muslim Brotherhood attachments – was at daggers drawn with Shi’ite Iran and its lackey, Syrian President Bashar Assad. As regards Syria, there was no way Erdogan would join the US’s unofficial alliance with Iran, which – both directly and via its puppet Hezbollah – was battling against IS in support of Assad.

As far as Iraq was concerned, the predominant factor from Erdogan’s perspective was the Kurdish dimension. Kurdish Pashmerga troops were by far the most effective fighting force, scoring notable successes against IS. But the subsequent boost to Kurdish popularity within Turkey, to say nothing of the Kurds’ territorial gains, was far from Erdogan’s liking. Despite his earlier tentative steps towards some sort of accommodation with the substantial Kurdish minority within Turkey – an initiative which had faltered by the end of 2014 – Erdogan and much of the Turkish establishment remained deeply opposed to Kurdish demands for greater autonomy.

Erdogan’s opposition to the Kurds, together with the fact that IS is unequivocally Sunni, led to suspicions that he was surreptitiously aiding IS by permitting foreign recruits to their ranks to enter Iraq by way of Turkey, and was actually funding IS by facilitating the sale of the oil they were extracting from fields captured during their territorial expansion.

So when a fierce battle developed between the Kurdish Peshmerga and IS for the town of Kobani on the Turkish-Syrian border, it was no surprise that Erdogan refused to engage against IS. He was doubtless disappointed when the Kurds finally captured the town, for by then a political aspect to the game was looming domestically.

This Kurdish success came just before Turkey began gearing itself for the general elections that were then central to Erdogan’s political aspirations. He was placing his hopes on a sweeping victory for his Justice and Development Party (AKP), to be followed by a new constitution that would vastly increase the power of the presidency. In anticipation of enhancing his popularity among his committed electorate, Erdogan turned his back on the peace pact he had made when prime minister with the PKK, the Kurdish militant organisation, and pushed through a security bill granting sweeping powers to the police.

His ploy failed. The June election saw his AKP lose its overall majority, and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) win 13 percent of the vote and gain parliamentary representation for the first time. The result has been a hung parliament, and eight weeks later the AKP has still not managed to form a coalition government. If no coalition appears before August 23, Turkey will have to hold an early election, most likely in the second half of November.

Early elections will give Erdogan, who has been dubbed Turkey’s neo-Ottoman sultan-in-waiting, a renewed opportunity to achieve his ambition of one-party rule headed by an autocratic president. The HDP, on the other hand, would hope to consolidate, and improve on, the gains it made in June.

It is against the backdrop of this internal political struggle that recent dramatic shifts in Erdogan’s foreign policy must be viewed.

Erdogan had long been at the receiving end of US requests to use Turkey’s Incerlik air base near Syria’s northern border to facilitate its air-strikes against IS, and indeed for Turkey to join the US coalition. On July 22, choosing a singularly opportune moment, President Obama contacted Erdogan directly by phone. Two days earlier an IS suicide bomber killed 32 people in an attack in the Turkish town of Suruç, near the Syrian border. Intense pressure was building on Erdoğan to hit back.

So the intra-presidential telephone conversation ended in an agreement that Turkey would stem the flow of foreign fighters to IS, secure Turkey’s border with Syria, join the air-strike operations, and allow the US the use of Turkey’s Incerlik air base near Syria’s northern border. But as with other arrangements involving President Obama, the deal was far from watertight. To change metaphors, the elephant in this particular room were the Kurds, the stalwart allies of the coalition.

In Erdogan’s eyes, however, the Kurds present as large a threat to his long-term political ambitions as IS – probably larger. With an eye on early elections and the impact on his own AKP constituency, Erdogan is set on curtailing growing Kurdish power along Turkey’s southern border. He wants to ensure that Kurdish gains in Iraq and in Syria do not encourage the revival in Kurdish fortunes demonstrated in the last election.

So from the start Erdogan has combined Turkish air strikes against IS forces in Syria with attacks on the PKK in northern Iraq and its forces in south-eastern Turkey. Since the Kurdish Pershmerga troops have proved themselves IS’s most formidable opponents, the US and its coalition partners are justified in asking whose side Erdogan is really on. He attacks IS; he attacks IS’s most formidable opponents. The truth is, he wants to punish both – IS for its terrorist attacks inside Turkey; the Kurds for their resurgence in self-confidence and recent electoral success. So in effect, as a recent media comment has it, Erdogan is fighting for Erdogan and against anyone who puts him in a bad light.

What game is Erdogan playing? The game of power politics – a game he dare not lose, for if he does his grandiose ambition to turn himself into a latter-day Ottoman Sultan, or Islamist Kemal Ataturk, will become nothing more than a footnote in the history of modern Turkey.


Quick Guide To Foreign Policy Views Of US Democratic Presidential Candidates – Analysis

$
0
0

By Brandon George Whitehill*

As of this writing, five Democrats are running for their party’s nomination for President of the United States: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, and Lincoln Chafee. Of these candidates for president, three (Sanders, Clinton, Chafee) were members of Congress during 9/11 and the votes on Afghanistan and Iraq Wars; two (Clinton, Webb) served on the Senate Armed Services Committee, two (Webb, Sanders) on the Veterans Affairs Committee, one (Webb) on the Foreign Relations Committee, and one (Chafee) on the Homeland Security Committee; one (Webb) was the Assistant Secretary of Defense, Secretary of the Navy, and a Marine Captain; and one (Clinton) was the nation’s top diplomat as Secretary of State. Among the Democrats, Webb, Sanders, O’Malley, and Chafee opposed the 2003 Iraq War from the beginning (initially supported by Clinton) and the 2011 intervention in Libya (supported vigorously by then-Secretary Clinton). Webb stands alone in his opposition to the current deal with Iran. Sanders opposed the Gulf War in 1991 in which the US and its allies ousted Iraq from Kuwait; he also opposed Obama’s troop surge in Afghanistan in 2009.

Jim Webb: The Military Man

As the only veteran currently running for the Democratic nod, the former Marine Captain, assistant Secretary of Defense, Secretary of the Navy, and Senator of Virginia is perhaps the best candidate to match former Secretary of State and current frontrunner Hillary Clinton’s grasp of foreign policy issues. In his presidential announcement press release, Webb touted his military background, saying “there is no greater responsibility for our President than the vital role of Commander in Chief. I have spent my entire life in and around the American military.”[1] Webb seeks to capitalize on his long military record along with his time in politics as a senator to offer a “fresh perspective” and serve as a viable alternative to Hillary Clinton.

The question about whether or not the Iraq War was a mistake has been predominantly confined to the Republican Party, but Webb’s stance has always been clear. From the beginning Webb was against invading Iraq. In a 2002 op-ed, Webb charged, “American military leaders have been trying to bring a wider focus to the band of neoconservatives that began beating the war drums on Iraq before the dust had even settled on the World Trade Center,” concluding, “Unilateral wars designed to bring about regime change and a long-term occupation should be undertaken only when a nation’s existence is at stake.”[2] He reiterates in his presidential announcement, “Let me assure you, as President I would not have urged an invasion of Iraq, nor as a Senator would I have voted to authorize it.”[3] He predicted a decades-long occupation and the accumulation of American enemies in the region, and during his time in the Senate pushed for an end to the war. In the coming primary contests, his long-established anti-Iraq message will stand in stark contrast to then-Senator Clinton’s vote in favor of the war.

Another prominent distinction between Webb and Clinton is his opposition to the intervention in Libya during the Arab Spring. In the same tone as his Iraq warnings, he declares, “Sure, Qadhafi was a bad guy, we understand that, but we had no treaties in place, we had no Americans at risk, we were not under any threat of attack.”[4] Clinton, conversely, claims credit in her recent memoir for constructing the strategy to intervene in Libya. Webb further distinguishes himself by laying out several foreign policy values that are applicable to any issue abroad. (1) “Explain clearly the threat to our national security, the specific objectives of the operations, and the end result he or she wishes to obtain;” (2) honor treaty commitments, but never allow America to be dragged involuntarily into war; (3) “maintain superiority in our strategic systems” via nuclear weapons, technology, space and cyberspace; (4) exercise the right of self-defense; (5) preserve and strengthen relationships with close allies, especially in Asia and the Middle East; (6) act “vigorously” against terrorist threats internationally or in countries that are unable to address it themselves—but never occupy territory; (7) the right to use force outside of direct threats to national security or treaty commitments lies solely with Congress.[5]

Webb places some of the blame for the rise of ISIL and violence in the Middle East with the United States as one of many unavoidable consequences of a long-term foreign invasion and occupation. “If you take a look at Syria, and these other parts of Iraq, we now have a situation where we’re asking these freedom fighters, or whatever you want to call them, who were going after Assad, to help us go after ISIS,” Webb posits, “The elements that are fighting there are very fluid in terms of the people who declare their alliances. I would be willing to bet that we had people at the top of ISIS who actually have been trained by Americans at some point.”[6] As such, Webb would be hesitant to send more troops to the region or blithely provide arms and assistance to fighters on the ground. When asked what he would do about ISIL right now, Webb responded, “ISIS has demonstrated, I think, clearly that they are an international terrorist organization. Their principal focus is not the United States. It is in that region. But since they have demonstrated that they are an international terrorist organization, we should be carefully articulating a military policy that goes after these people.”[7] In the long run, Webb believes that the US has tools and strategies with which it can assert its interests without placing American troops in harm’s way.[8]

Webb has also extended his Iraq criticisms to Iran, claiming that the invasion and its results have only served to strengthen the regime and its standing in the region. He is committed to stopping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, but worries that President Obama’s negotiations could lead to just that: “The end result of this could well be our acquiescence in allowing Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. We don’t want that.”[9] He cites the differing interpretations of the terms of the deal on the part of the Obama Administration and Iranian leaders as evidence that the US ought to “scrub this whole idea.” When the deal was released, Webb broke from the mainstream Democratic position, expressing, “I have a lot of concerns about this deal…They get immediate lifting of sanctions and over a period of 10 years they are going to be able to say they can move forward with a nuclear weapons policy with the acceptance of the U.S. and the other countries.”[10] He also supports more congressional oversight for the terms of the deal and their ability to reject or accept it by voting and debating, like a treaty. “I do not believe that you can have a legally binding international commitment without the full consent of Congress,” says Webb.[11] Webb adopts the rhetoric of Henry Kissinger and his former boss Ronald Reagan in his support for smart negotiations with stringent verification measures to ensure the Iranians desist.

Webb has vocally criticized the administration’s policies in the Asia-Pacific region. He believes that the United States has an obligation to ensure stability and maintain a presence there. Where once America’s leading role liberated oppressed peoples and bolstered burgeoning economies, now “American vacillations have for years emboldened China. U.S. policy with respect to sovereignty issues in Asian-Pacific waters has been that we take no sides.”[12] Webb believes that China’s actions in the South China Sea and broader region have escalated beyond the point of honest sovereignty disputes to actual aggression, with no resolution in sight. He posits, “They [China] are waiting to see whether America will live up to its uncomfortable but necessary role as the true guarantor of stability in East Asia, or whether the region will again be dominated by belligerence and intimidation.”[13] Webb also recognizes the web of economic relations among China, countries in East Asia and the South Pacific, and the United States, but has doubts about the Trans-Pacific Partnership currently under negotiation. He supports the idea of free trade, but says the Senate should not be voting on Trade Promotion Authority unless the administration releases more details about the deal and relaxes the security around it. In a Facebook post, he wrote, “Trans-Pacific Partnership–too much at stake for Congress to vote on Fast Track without seeing full details of the trade agreement beforehand. Show us the language!”[14]

During his time in the Senate, Webb traveled to Burma, a communist country, in order to inspire relations between the United States and the Burmese dictator. He faced criticisms for engaging with an ideological adversary, but he maintained, “We can take advantage of these gestures as a way to begin laying a foundation of good will and confidence-building in the future.”[15] Following his trip, Burma released a jailed American journalist and the Obama administration opened up to relations with the Burmese government. A similar parallel exists today with Cuba. While still in the Senate, Webb advocated for allowing travel between the US and Cuba. After over fifty years of embargo in the name of combatting communism, Webb praises President Obama’s moves to normalize relations. In response to Obama’s announcement, Webb tweeted, “POTUS made right decision on #Cuba. Proud of having worked years toward normalization of relations w/ Vietnam & leading the way in Burma.”[16] Webb sees no difference between having relations with communist countries like China and Vietnam and having relations with other communist countries like Burma and Cuba; in all cases, diplomatic ties are beneficial.

Webb, whose military service coincided with the final years of the Soviet Union’s existence, believes, “The most important thing that we have been lacking since the end of the Cold War has been a clearly articulated national security policy, a set of principles.”[17] He names the Nixon Doctrine as his favorite set of principles and guidelines for foreign policy: “[The Nixon Doctrine] tries to figure out when it is that the United States should assist a friend or an ally, and when they should actually inject military force, and what our responsibility is in terms of nuclear power, including proliferation.”[18] Webb hopes to once again establish a clear American foreign policy that intervenes and acts consistently with clearly articulable guidelines.

Bernie Sanders: Feel the Bern

Bernie Sanders is not the first socialist to ever run for president, but he seems the first poised to present the mainstream Democrat Party—represented by frontrunner Hillary Clinton—with an ultimatum: shift to the left or face a passionate, populist challenger. Sanders supports a staunchly antiwar foreign policy in stark contrast to Clinton’s historical willingness to intervene militarily. To evince his restraint abroad, Sanders often steers foreign policy discussions to America’s own economic woes, saying, “The United States has a lot to be concerned about, and we should be concerned, absolutely, about the Assad regime. We should be concerned about ISIS. We should be concerned about the terrible poverty that exists in Africa and parts of Asia, but we should also be concerned that in America, our middle class is disappearing, and that we have more people living in poverty than almost any time in the history of this country.”[19]

Sanders was a member of the House of Representatives during the September 11th attacks and critical votes thereafter. He voted in favor of using force against al-Qaeda, but this vote stands as an exception to his well-established rule against exerting military force. He voted against authorizing force against Saddam Hussein in 1991, in the Balkans in 1999, and troop surge in Afghanistan in 2009. The authorization that is proving itself most relevant to the 2016 election, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, also received a dissenting vote from then-Representative Sanders. In a speech on the House floor during debate, Sanders outlined five reasons for his opposition: “One, I have not heard any estimates of how many young American men and women might die in such a war or how many tens of thousands of women and children in Iraq might also be killed,” “Second, I am deeply concerned about the precedent that a unilateral invasion of Iraq could establish in terms of international law and the role of the United Nations,” “Third, an attack on Iraq at this time would seriously jeopardize, if not destroy, the global counterterrorist campaign we have undertaken,” “Fourth, at a time when this country has a $6 trillion national debt and a growing deficit, we should be clear that a war and a long-term American occupation of Iraq could be extremely expensive,” and “Fifth, I am concerned about the problems of so-called unintended consequences. Who will govern Iraq when Saddam Hussein is removed and what role will the U.S. play in an ensuing a civil war that could develop in that country?”[20] By most accounts, his concerns raised questions with striking foresight, and Sanders plans to use his consistent opposition to the Iraq War and other Middle East interventions against Hillary Clinton, who voted in favor of them all.

Sanders sees ISIL as a threat to national security and therefore deserving of action on the part of the United States, but remains resistant to sending American troops to intervene in Middle East affairs. He opposed US airstrikes in Syria against President Bashar al-Assad, calling it “a third Middle East war in 12 years” and “an interminable conflict.”[21] “We have billions to spend on a war but no money to take care of the very pressing needs of the American people. That bothers me a lot,”[22] he remarked. As for ISIL, Sanders believes, “If we’re going to be successful in defeating this brutal organization called ISIS, what needs to happen is that the people in the region—the Muslim nations—are going to have to take the responsibility of leading that effort. It cannot be the United States of America.”[23] He says heavy US intervention is exactly what ISIL wants so that they can pit their conflict as a grand one against the west: “They want this to be a war of the United States versus ISIS, of the West versus the East, of Christianity versus Islam.”[24] He thinks that local countries like Saudi Arabia, which he points out has the fourth largest defense budget in the world, must assume an expanded role in maintaining peace and stability in the region. “I’ll be damned, Sanders exclaimed, “If kids in the state of Vermont—or taxpayers in the state of Vermont—have to defend the royal Saudi family, which is worth hundreds of billions of dollars.”[25] The full list of countries that Sanders argues should be “fully engaged” includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Turkey, Iran and Jordan. He concludes, “The U.S. and the international community should be fully supportive but the leadership in this war must come from the Muslim world.”[26]

On the ongoing negotiations with Iran, Sanders maintains the ubiquitous position that they must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. Sanders has said, “It is imperative that we do everything we can to reach a diplomatic solution and avoid never-ending war in the Middle East.”[27] He voted in favor of a bill proposed by Senator Bob Corker to have Congress review the deal President Obama negotiated, about which he said, “I congratulate President Obama, Secretary Kerry and the leaders of other major nations for producing a comprehensive agreement to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” adding that it represents a “victory for diplomacy over saber-rattling.”[28]  When Senator Tom Cotton wrote an open letter to the Iranian Ayatollah, Sanders criticized the action: “When you sabotage the effort to reach a peace agreement by the leader of the United States of America—the man who is charged with dealing with foreign policy—that, to me, is really unspeakable.”[29] He charged that Senate Republicans are “itching for war” with Iran, adding, “Apparently, some of my Republican colleagues do not believe that two wars are enough. I think that is a very, very tragic position to hold.”[30] He plans to vote in favor of the deal in the Senate.

The only Jewish candidate for president from either party, Sanders has maintained a centrist approach to Israel in contrast somewhat with others on the left. He hopes “The United States will, in the future, help play a leading role in creating a permanent two-state solution,”[31] with settlements existing only within legitimate geographical claims and Palestinians disavowing Hamas, which Sanders says “is very clear: their [Hamas’] view is that Israel should not have a right to exist.”[32] A turning point in Sanders’ rhetoric, however, occurred in response to the violent 2014 conflict between Israel and Gaza, during which the “Israeli attacks that killed hundreds of innocent people – including many women and children – in bombings of civilian neighborhoods and UN controlled schools, hospitals, and refugee camps” were “disproportionate,” “completely unacceptable,” and “took an enormous human toll.”[33] Sanders was one of many Congressional Democrats to boycott Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address, contending, “He doesn’t have the right to inject himself into an American political discussion by being the speaker before a joint session of Congress to criticize the President of the United States.”[34] In another interview, Sanders more directly said, “I gotta tell you, I am not a great fan of [Prime Minister] Netanyahu.”[35]

In response to President Vladimir Putin’s advance into Crimea, Sanders supported President Obama’s use of sanctions. “The entire world has got to stand up to Putin, Sanders said, “And we’ve got to deal with sanctions.”[36] Sanders also left himself open to other means to isolate and stand up to Russia, but cautioned, “This is what you don’t do: You don’t go to war. You don’t sacrifice lives of young people in this country as we did in Iraq and Afghanistan.”[37] While Sanders sees Russia as an aggressor, he “applauds” President Obama’s restoration of normal relations with Cuba. “While we have our strong differences with Cuba, it is not a terrorist state. This is a major step forward in ending the 55-year Cold War with Cuba,” Sanders maintains, “Normal diplomatic relations would mean not only that Americans have the opportunity to visit Cuba, but businesses in Vermont and elsewhere can sell products there.”[38] He additionally was a member of the Congressional delegation that visited Cuba earlier this year to discuss human rights, healthcare, and trade.

Sanders’ positions on China are predominantly economically motivated. Every year, he opposes permanent normal trade relations with China because of the loss of jobs, especially in manufacturing. “Since PNTR with China was signed into law in 2000,” Sanders argues, “The U.S. trade deficit with China has exploded.”[39] Sanders especially took issue with the revelation that bronze busts of US presidents in the gift shops at the Smithsonian Museum of American History were made in China, which he called “extraordinary symbolism” and “pretty pathetic.”[40] As such, Sanders was one of the most outspoken critics of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in the Senate, opposing both the President’s Trade Promotion Authority and the deal itself. He calls the TPP “A disastrous trade agreement designed to protect the interests of the largest multi-national corporations at the expense of workers, consumers, the environment and the foundations of American democracy.”[41] He detests the secret nature of its drafting and on his website lists ten extensively detailed ways that the deal “would hurt working families.”[42]

On domestic surveillance, Sanders unequivocally sides with privacy rights. He voted against the Patriot Act originally in Congress, and subsequently in the Senate every time it was due for reauthorization. “Let me be clear: We must do everything we can to protect our country from the serious potential of another terrorist attack,” Sanders assures, “We can and must do so, however, in a way that also protects the constitutional rights of the American people and maintains our free society.”[43]He decries the Patriot Act as “Orwellian surveillance of every American,” and would rather the government have to establish “reasonable suspicion” to procure a “court order” to “monitor business records related to a specific terrorism suspect.”[44] After the Patriot Act was defeated in a protracted Senate debate, Sanders ultimately voted against the bipartisan reforms of the Freedom Act as well.

When discussing foreign policy, Sanders has repeatedly said, “I don’t have a magic solution.” But he does say he has almost always opposed and learned the lessons of American-led wars, and adds, “I get very, very nervous when I hear Republicans who apparently just can’t get enough of war — whether it’s going to war in Syria, going to war in Iraq, going to war in Iran, or going to war with Russia.”[45] He calls for a more “rational” and “intelligent” approach to foreign policy that is more rooted in multilateralism and employs force only when US national security is directly at stake.

Lincoln Chafee: Prepare to Wage Peace

Lincoln Chafee enters the Democratic race with both broad political experience and party affiliation. He was the Republican Senator from Rhode Island during 9/11 and the votes for Afghanistan and Iraq. He was then the Independent Governor of Rhode Island. Then in 2013, he switched to the Democratic Party. In the announcement of his candidacy, he focused almost entirely on foreign policy. Chafee said the legacy of the War on Terror has left us with “prodigious repair work in the Middle East.” The axiom of his strategy is to “rewrite the neocon’s New American Century” and above all, “wage peace”[46] with an “aversion to foreign entanglements.”[47]

Iraq is Chafee’s favorite topic of discussion. In 2002, he was one of 23 senators and the sole Republican senator to vote against the authorization of force in Iraq. He outlined three reasons for his opposition: first, it reminded him too much of Vietnam; second, he had a “revulsion to the mendacity” of the Bush administration, many of whom, Chafee says, were “cheerleaders” who “had been writing about regime change in Iraq and American unilateralism for years;”[48] and third, claiming he saw “everything the intelligence community had,” he remained absolutely unconvinced that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Expanding on the second and third points, Chafee goes as far as to charge, “They [neocons] knew there were no weapons of mass destruction but wanted their war badly enough to purposely deceive us.”[49] He laments the lost and injured lives, squandered tax dollars, and lack of sufficient care for veterans that have resulted from the war. He intends to pit Iraq as a rallying issue against Republicans and Hillary Clinton, saying “I don’t think anybody should be president of the United States that made that mistake. It’s a huge mistake, and we live with broad, broad ramifications today—of instability not only in the Middle East but far beyond and the loss of American credibility.”[50]

Chafee speaks about ISIL unlike any other candidates. He has refused to rule out open discussions and negotiations with ISIL, about whom he said, “ISIS is emerging. It’s a phenomenon that’s ever-changing and everyone is surprised what’s happened in Palmyra. We expected the devastation of antiquities and it hasn’t happened, adding, “We’re coming to grips as to who these people are and what they want.”[51] Using the word “rapprochement,” he said, “You have to think that it’s always possible.”[52] In another interview, Chafee said that if necessary, he would be willing to work multilaterally with Middle East countries to fight ISIL. The countries he identified: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, the Europeans, Russia, “and even the Iranians.”[53] He asserted, “It is a chaotic mess over there. It’s a Republican chaotic mess, and so we need, as Democrats, a nominee that opposed the war, as we look ahead to fixing it,” concluding that he is “the person who would be better to strengthen these alliances and then move forward.”[54]

As part of his plan to “wage peace,” Chafee supports “warming relations” with several countries around the world with whom America’s relationship has cooled, including Iran. “Of course we should be talking with them [Iran],” Chafee remarked, “That’s what we did right in the Cold War…that is the right way to make peace.”[55] When asked whether or not Iran poses a threat to United States national security, Chafee responded, “In this dangerous world of nuclear proliferation which is now occurring, yes, but only because of our own mistakes. I don’t think the Iranians want this level of hostility, but when our administration labels them one of the three axes of evil—North Korea, Iran, and Iraq—and we invade one, it’s only human nature that you’re going to arm.”[56] He fully supports the deal that President Obama negotiated with the Iranians, praising it as a “historic breakthrough:” “Strong, patient diplomacy should continue to be the model for resolving conflicts.”[57] In a broader strategy to deal with Iran and other threatening or adversarial countries, Chafee submits, “Go back to the success of the Cold War; what worked is that we opened the gates between China and the United States with ping pong teams—ping pong diplomacy—and it was a tremendous breakthrough. And the same with Russia until we aren’t pointing missiles at each other. These things can break down the hostility and rhetoric that citizens, both American and Iranian, don’t want.”[58]

Chafee believes that fostering improved relations with Russia should be “one of the US’s highest priorities.”[59] He opposes imposing sanctions on the country, arguing, “I don’t know about these sanctions. I should think that there would be better ways of getting rapprochement with Russia. They’re so important in the world.”[60] He has posited that Russia should join the European Union and that Crimea and Ukraine are stuck in a “tug-of-war between Europe and Russia,”[61] maintaining that the United States should not be involved. Similarly, Chafee supports the normalization of relations with Cuba and recalls his visit to Cuba and meeting with Fidel Castro as “one of my most vivid memories of my time in the Senate.”[62] When President Obama announced that embassies would be reopened in each country, Chafee celebrated: “Today is a great day for Americans!”[63] Going even further, he has expressed a desire to “repair relations with Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia.”[64] Accordingly, with the stipulation of addressing currency manipulation and environmental concerns, Chafee is supportive of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, saying “For me, waging peace includes negotiating fair trade agreements…The TPP has the potential to set fair guidelines for the robust commerce taking place in the Pacific Rim.”[65]

Chafee supports a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians, but laments that amid all of America’s involvement in the Middle East, it has not happened already. “I am deeply distressed to observe that, in the almost five years since, it seems that President Bush has become the only U.S. President in more than three decades to have removed himself from the peace process,” Chafee said, then identifying President Bush’s “Road Map” and “Mission Accomplished” speeches as “two critical junctures when conditions were particularly ripe for true progress toward an Arab-Israeli peace settlement.”[66] Chafee has not shied away from criticizing Israel, and several times in the Senate voted against sanctioning Israel’s enemies and against resolutions supporting Israel. In a statement responding to critics about his position against Israeli settlements in the West Bank, he asserted, “The whole premise of peace between the Israelis and Palestinians is the West Bank and trading land for peace.”[67] Chafee says his “dogged” position on Israel is in its “long-term best interests.”[68]

To better project America’s values and “wage peace” abroad, Chafee proposed a series of reforms domestically. In the realm of domestic surveillance, Chafee originally voted for the Patriot Act but upon learning the revelations exposed by Edward Snowden, said, “I don’t believe it granted any power to tap phones or any other surveillance without a warrant. That’s a definite stretch.”[69] He continues, “Recently, certain of our rights have been wrongfully infringed upon. Particularly the Fourth Amendment forbids the tapping of our phones without a warrant.”[70] He is calling for the government to welcome Edward Snowden back to America as well. Other reforms include: increased funding and participation to “reinvigorate” the United Nations; ban giving ambassadorships to political donors because “it isn’t an easy career and they deserve the very best in support and respect;” better adhere to the Geneva Convention by ending the practice or torture, capital punishment, and extrajudicial killings—especially via drones—which is an “antagonistic, nefarious activity” that causes “upheaval,” “collateral damage,” and “toxic hatred;” and even join the rest of the world in using the metric system.[71]

Chafee is likely most dovish and antiwar of all candidates running for president. He criticizes neoconservatives, saying “For the hawks, disorder and chaos sweeping through the region would not be an unfortunate side-effect of war with Iraq, but a sign that everything is going according to their plan.”[72] Instead of military solutions, Chafee would open discussions with America’s adversaries, including her bitterest of enemies, all to serve his ultimate goal: “We have to change our thinking. We have to find a way to wage peace.”[73] Chafee wants more transparency and diplomacy in foreign policy, and for the United States to create and honor international agreements. “In this New American Century,” Chafee proclaims, “It is very important to continue to have a ready and strong military. The eagle in our Great Seal holds both arrows and an olive branch. Let’s lead responsibly with a commitment to our unwavering defense and our peaceful purposes.”[74]

Martin O’Malley: Progressively Moderate

In contrast to some other Democratic candidates who capitalize on a war-weary electorate to advocate military retrenchment, the former Governor of Maryland and Mayor of Baltimore posits a message of responsible engagement. “After twelve years on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan and after a global financial crisis and long recession that our people are still struggling to recover from it is understandable that many Americans would like to disengage from the world. Understandable, but not responsible. Because our country’s security—and our children’s prosperity—demand that we be more engaged with the world around us, not less.”[75] O’Malley envisions a more proactive foreign policy that dispenses with unilateralism in favor of collaboration, and focuses more on strengthening the homeland than building nations abroad. “No fighter jet or troop battalion will keep us as safe as a vibrant economy, a strong democracy and a growing middle class,”[76] O’Malley says.

O’Malley has laid out a unique platform for foreign policy that includes a comprehensive refocus of priorities. These new focal points include building a strong domestic economy, addressing climate change, securing cyberspace, and confronting immediate threats. He sees the middle class as the foundation of American strength and security, and worries that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will favor large, multinational corporations and leave the average American worker behind. “What gain for the United States can be found in secret trade deals that fast-track the export of American jobs and undermine wages for American workers?”[77] he ponders. While he concurrently opposes protectionism, “it is a call for fair competition—the kind that that is consistent with our most deeply-held principles.”[78]

O’Malley believes that climate change poses a severe and immediate threat to the United States. Pointing out that 97 percent of climate scientists agree that climate change is real and man-made, O’Malley posits, “As a combat leader, if 97% of my intelligence indicated that I was about to face a lethal danger that would risk the lives of my paratroopers, I would be committing unconscionable malpractice if I did not listen and act.”[79] He calls on America to lead the way and pursue an “ambitious plan” to convert to “100% clean energy” by the year 2050. “Climate change is not only a very real existential threat to human life, it is also the greatest business opportunity to come to our country in a hundred years,” he says. He also garnered attention when he linked global climate change directly to the rise of ISIL. “One of the things that preceded the failure of the nation state of Syria and the rise of ISIS,” O’Malley maintained, “was the effect of climate change and the mega-drought that affected that nation, wiped out farmers, drove people to cities, created a humanitarian crisis that created the symptoms — or rather, the conditions — of extreme poverty that has now led to the rise of ISIS and this extreme violence.”[80]

O’Malley continues that in the information age, securing America’s cyberspace is a national security necessity. “Nuclear power plants, public transportation, air traffic control, water systems, and even the electric grid itself are all in danger of being shut down with a few lines of malicious code.” He wants to create a program through every state’s National Guard to hire private sector “engineers, designers and scholars—from Silicon Valley to Fort Meade—to secure our networks.”[81] He sees China, which he calls “neither [a] trusted ally nor total adversary,” as the greatest transgressor of cybersecurity and warns that the next president will inevitably face the growing danger of cyberwarfare. In terms of data collection on the part of the United States with domestic surveillance, O’Malley appreciates the delicate balance between the right of privacy and the need for intelligence. He offered supportive words for sunsetting the Patriot Act and passing the Freedom Act, but said that Senator Rand Paul’s actions against metadata collection and the NSA could render the United States “less safe if we resort to obstructionism when it comes to something as important as protecting our homeland from the threat of terror attacks.”[82] At the same time, O’Malley said that the Freedom Act did not go far enough to protect privacy rights: “The USA Freedom act was a step in the right direction,” he contends, but “I would like to see us go further in terms of a role for a public advocate in the FISA court.”[83]

Shifting to the more immediate threats that confront foreign policy, O’Malley identifies the Middle East as the most volatile and dangerous region in the world. He articulates America’s three core values in the Middle East: (1) “to protect our allies and prevent regional war,” (2) “to keep sea lanes open and provide humanitarian assistance,” and (3) “ to prevent terrorist safe havens and nuclear proliferation.”[84] While all candidates are united in their opposition to Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, O’Malley’s rhetoric on prevention and humanitarian assistance puts him at odds with other candidates for the Democratic nomination that oppose preventative measures, endorse non-intervention, and would rather devote American resources to the homeland. O’Malley believes in strengthening the domestic economy, but purports to “craft a new foreign policy of engagement and collaboration.”[85]

Like most other Democratic candidates, O’Malley opposed the Iraq War from the beginning. “The invasion of Iraq, along with the subsequent disbanding of the Iraqi military,” O’Malley contends, “will be remembered as one of the most tragic, deceitful, and costly blunders in US history. We are still paying the price of a war pursued under false pretenses and acquiesced to by the appalling silence of the good.”[86] He attributes the Iraq war to a lack of understanding, which he says must become a pillar of foreign policy before the United States acts. O’Malley has a cautious but proactive approach to “containing, degrading, and confronting” ISIL, which he calls “a gang of murderous thugs who have perverted the name of one of the world’s greatest religions.”[87] He warns of mission creep and says boots on the ground would be counterproductive to America’s desired outcome, adding that the emergence of ISIL “illustrates the unintended consequences of a mindless rush to war and a lack of understanding.”[88] He believes the United States should aid its partners in the Middle East and supply them with what they need to fight ISIL, devote resources to counter ISIL propaganda and “amplify credible local voices,” and encourage the Iraqi government to be more inclusive.

Another immediate threat in O’Malley’s eyes is the prospect of a nuclear Iran. He spoke favorably of the Obama administration’s framework, saying, “I believe negotiations are the best way to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, the best way to avoid even greater conflict in the region, and the best way to stop widespread nuclear proliferation across the Middle East.”[89] When the deal was released, he said, “I am of the belief that a negotiated agreement, provided it’s verifiable and enforceable, is the best path to a nuclear-free Iran. So I think that the initial news is promising,”[90] Emulating Chafee, he later added, “We have to be about waging peace. And perhaps this deal is that path forward.”[91] As for America’s close ally in the Middle East, O’Malley has always advocated for Israel’s right to self-defense—whether with regard to Iran, Hamas, and others. He firmly supports the two-state solution: “I think the relationship between the United States and Israel is strong, will remain strong, and must be strong for our own security,” he posits, “Also, we have to continue to wage peace, and in this context, waging peace means pushing for a two-state solution.”[92] Like many other Democrats, O’Malley expressed criticism when Republicans invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress, saying, “I think leaders in both of our countries would be well advised not to get into the electoral politics of the other nation.”[93]

Finally, O’Malley has been consistently supportive of the administration’s resumption of normalized relations with Cuba. “I think it’s a very positive development, that we are normalizing relations with Cuba,” O’Malley contends, “There is tremendous potential to collaborate and to cooperate, especially where food and energy issues are concerned. And it’s in our best interest.”[94] O’Malley sees this as an opportunity to strengthen his idea of the global middle class through cooperation that the world has not seen in over 50 years. Condensing his position clearly on twitter, O’Malley wrote, “Diplomacy creates opportunities. Embargoes don’t.”[95]

O’Malley seeks to combine progressive and moderate elements of the Democratic Party by addressing issues like climate change and income inequality while maintaining strong American presence and leadership abroad. He cites Harry Truman as his favorite foreign policy president for ending World War II, immediately recognizing Israel, and  executing the Marshall Plan, among other feats: “We must take the broader lessons of what worked in Truman’s day and apply them to the emerging threats of our own time. Because today, we face an equally daunting array of threats.”[96] Combining the many elements of his proposals as he lays out his vision for foreign policy, O’Malley concludes, “We will give our children a future with more opportunity, rather than less, and we will make our planet a healthier, more peaceful, and more just place for all of humanity. These are the ambitions worthy of a truly great people.”[97]

Hillary Clinton: #Ready

After coming tantalizingly close to securing the Democratic nomination in 2008, the former Secretary of State, New York Senator, and First Lady has been the clear favorite of a wide coalition of Democrats, progressives, and liberals. For many, Hillary Clinton’s nomination is a foregone conclusion, but especially in the foreign policy arena, several candidates have risen to challenge her on her hawkish record. During her time in the Senate, Clinton voted in favor of such measures as the Patriot Act and the Iraq War, and as Secretary of State she was an outspoken advocate for intervening in Libya and arming rebels throughout many of the Arab Spring uprisings. After three decades in politics, four years of which spent as America’s chief diplomat, Hillary sees foreign policy as her strong suit, promising, “I believe the future holds far more opportunities than threats if we exercise creative and confident leadership that enables us to shape global events rather than be shaped by them.”[98]

Hillary lays out her vision for international American strength with four pillars in what she calls the “framework for American leadership.” First, a strong foundation: “America’s ability to protect our interests abroad is rooted in our strength and vitality at home. Our economy provides the foundation for our leadership and military might. We succeed when we invest in our people, our infrastructure, and our technological edge.”[99] Second, a secure and resilient homeland: “We can meet every threat to our country and people—from terrorist groups to aggressive states to cyber attacks—by confronting challenges head-on and standing up for our most fundamental values.”[100] Third, a military on the cutting edge: “With innovation, adaptation, and smart investment, we will ensure the United States maintains the best-trained, best-equipped, and strongest military the world has ever known.”[101] And fourth, a vision centered on ideals: “America is defined by our diversity and our openness, our devotion to human rights and democracy, and our belief that we can always do more to perfect our ideals. So we will place a deliberate emphasis on gender equality, defend the rights of LGBTQ individuals around the globe, and stand up for an open internet to ensure that all people have equal access to information and ideas.”[102]

In 2002, then-Senator Hillary Clinton voted to authorize military force in Iraq and defended her support of it in the 2008 Democratic Primaries in contrast to fellow candidate Barack Obama. As the only Democratic candidate who previously supported the war, she now wants to ensure voters that she sees it as a mistake, which she writes for the first time in her 2014 memoir Hard Choices: “Many Senators came to wish they had voted against the resolution. I was one of them…I thought I had acted in good faith and made the best decision I could with the information I had. And I wasn’t alone in getting it wrong. But I still got it wrong. Plain and simple.”[103] On the preeminent issue in Iraq right now, Clinton says ISIL and its recruits “pose a serious threat to America and our allies.” She wants to “empower” America’s allies in the region to “confront and defeat” ISIL without “miring our troops in another misguided ground war.”[104]  Clinton made the open-ended statement that she would “do whatever it takes” to protect Americans, but has renounced sending American ground troops to defeat ISIL: “This has to be fought by and won by Iraqis. There is no role whatsoever for American soldiers on the ground to go back, other than in the capacity as trainers and advisers.”[105] She praises the current administration’s general policies of providing resources like air support to those willing to fight ISIL. She diverges with the current administration, however, with respect to its unwillingness to aid Syrian rebels at the outset of the Syrian civil war. “I know that the failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against Assad—there were Islamists, there were secularists, there was everything in the middle,” she maintains, “The failure to do that left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled.”[106] In her memoir, Clinton writes that she was a vocal advocate for military aid to the rebels, and subsequent events—such as the rise of ISIL—vindicate her stance.

Another intervention which Hillary strongly supported as Secretary of State was the Libyan civil war. Along with the United Nations, the United States enforced a no-fly zone over Libyan airspace to hinder Muammar Qaddafi’s forces against civilians. The United States expanded its role by conducting airstrikes against regime targets and providing arms to rebel forces. Clinton designed many of these initiatives, and when the Qaddafi was removed from power and killed, Clinton quipped, “We came, we saw, he died.”[107] She hailed the effort as a great success and the administration dubbed it an example for future interventions. Then, terror struck with the storming of America’s embassy in Benghazi and the murder of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens. Controversy ensued when the State Department maintained that the attack was the result of a spontaneous protest against an inflammatory anti-Muslim video, an assertion that proved false. She defended the Department against allegations of negligence and dishonesty when it came to the causes and preventable nature of the attack.[108] In response to a line of questioning regarding Clinton’s inaction on reports of an imminent attack and requests for added security, Clinton notoriously remarked, “The fact is we had four dead Americans. Was it because of a protest or was it because of guys out for a walk one night who decided that they’d they go kill some Americans? What difference at this point does it make?”[109] Congress, four years later, still searches for answers with the establishment of the Benghazi committee, issuing of subpoenas, and continued investigations of Clinton’s email correspondence.

Another partial legacy of Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State is the negotiations with Iran to abandon its nuclear program. She touts that she “led the global effort to sanction Iran,”[110] to which many have credited Iran’s willingness to negotiate in the first place, and writes in her memoir about sending her advisors to Oman to meet with Iranians to initiate talks.[111] During the 2008 campaign, Clinton criticized President Obama for saying he would negotiate with Iran without preconditions, saying he was “irresponsible and frankly naïve,”[112] but she has since been supportive of the P5+1 talks, saying of the final deal, “I support the agreement because it can help us prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.”[113] She adds that verification and enforcement are vital measures of the deal: “Signing is just the beginning. As president I would use every tool in our arsenal to compel rigorous Iranian compliance.”[114] She says this deal is good for America’s Arab allies in the Middle East as well as Israel. Towing the line between supporting the administration’s deal and assuaging the concerns of critics, she pledges this as her message to Iran as President: “The message to Iran should be loud and clear: we will never allow you to acquire a nuclear weapon; not just during the term of this agreement – never.”[115]

Touting more State Department Experience, she says, “I have reinforced allies like Israel.”[116] She recently penned a letter to Jewish leaders condemning the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanction movement, a show of support and solidarity for Israel. Clinton writes that the BDS movement represents “attempts to isolate and delegitimize Israel,” adding, “Israel is a vibrant democracy in a region dominated by autocracy, and it faced existential threats to survival. Particularly at a time when anti-Semitism is on the rise across the world, we need to repudiate forceful efforts to malign and undermine Israel and the Jewish people.”[117] During her time as Secretary of State, Clinton said she had a good relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, but that she was the “designated yeller” of the Obama administration: “Something would happen, a new settlement announcement would come and I would call him up, what are you doing? You’ve got to stop this. And we understood each other because I know how hard it is to be the leader of a relatively small country that is under constant pressure and does face a lot of legitimate threats to its existence from those around it.”[118] Clinton supports a two-state solution, calling it the “best outcome”[119] for both the Israelis and Palestinians and noting, “I was the first person associated with any administration to say that out loud.”[120]

Where Hillary becomes more hawkish than most is in her stand against Vladimir Putin and Russian aggression. Before Putin returned as Russia’s President and advanced into Crimea, Clinton led the United States in its “reset” of relations with Russia, famously manifesting itself in a photo op of Clinton with her counterpart Sergey Lavrov pressing a red button in a mislabeled yellow box.[121] Though the subject of much criticism, Clinton stands by the effort, maintaining, “The reset worked…It was an effort to try to obtain Russian cooperation on some key objectives while Medvedev was president.”[122]After Putin annexed Crimea, however, Clinton’s tone took a hostile turn. “Now if this sounds familiar,” Clinton remarked, “It’s what Hitler did back in the ’30s.”[123] She lambasted European countries for being “too wimpy” with how they deal with Putin, according to London Mayor Boris Johnson.[124] She is concerned that Putin will continue to seize land and oppress people to the extent of the borders of the former USSR. She describes her presidential platform as “Standing up to Putin,” explaining, “We will support our European friends in their effort to decrease dependence on Russian oil, and we will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our NATO allies. With Europe, we will make clear that the choice to turn Russia around is in Vladimir Putin’s hands.”[125] It is worth noting that current allegations of wrongdoing exist as Clinton, while Secretary of State, authorized deals that gave Russia control of Asian and U.S. uranium mines after the Clinton Foundation received a $2.35 million undisclosed donation from a Russian businessman and Bill Clinton gave a $500,000 speech in Moscow.[126] The White House and Clinton Campaign disavow any notion of misconduct.[127]

Clinton similarly bases her China policy on “holding China accountable.”[128] She has spoken against cyberattacks and hacking on the part of the Chinese, accusing them of “trying to hack into everything that doesn’t move in America.”[129] As president, she would “promote China’s adherence to cyber norms,” as well as raise issues of environmental degradation, humanitarian concerns, and regional antagonism.[130] Though she sees accountability as a major element of US-China relations, she does not view China, as many others do, as an adversary: “Some in the region and some here at home see China’s growth as a threat that will lead either to Cold War-style conflict or American decline. And some in China worry that the United States is bent on containing China’s rise and constraining China’s growth, a view that is stoking a new streak of assertive Chinese nationalism. We reject those views.”[131] In a 2011 piece, Clinton outlined the administration’s new “pivot to Asia,” whose thesis is essentially that the future of American politics and foreign policy is not in interminable wars in the Middle East, but in the burgeoning countries of the Asia-Pacific. She posits, “At a time when the region is building a more mature security and economic architecture to promote stability and prosperity, U.S. commitment there is essential.”[132] On the economic front, Clinton criticizes both the Chinese for not living up to trade partnerships and American leaders for not holding them accountable. After remaining silent on the issue for some time, saying she would rather read the deal before taking a position (the deal is currently secret), Clinton spoke out against fast-track authority for President Obama to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership. “I believe that one of the ways the president could get fast-track authority is to deal with the legitimate concerns of those Democrats who are potential ‘yes’ voters to see if what’s in the negotiation, or even what’s in the existing framework agreement that is being drafted, could be modified or changed,” she offered.[133] China and the greater Asia-Pacific will present a unique but delicate opportunity for Clinton as she was the architect for America’s refocus of relations, but also must guard against Chinese hacking and economic malfeasance.

Clinton adds several other elements to her extensive foreign policy proposals.  “Meeting today’s global challenges requires every element of American power. It requires skillful diplomacy, economic influence, and knowing how to build partnerships around the world with people, not just governments,” she says.[134] This diplomacy, influence, and partnership includes “nations [that] are fighting to build democratic and economically free societies” and “resolv[ing] familiar conflicts and nurture[ing] new democracies to empower moderates and marginalize extremists, and to open markets and champion human rights.”[135] In this spirit, she supports the administration’s normalization of relations with Cuba, and celebrated the opening of a Cuban embassy by tweeting, “New US Embassy in Havana helps us engage Cuban people & build on efforts to support positive change. Good step for US & Cuban people.”[136] She reveals herself as a longtime supporter of normalization, writing in her memoir, “Near the end of my tenure I recommended to President Obama that he take another look at our embargo. It wasn’t achieving its goals and it was holding back our broader agenda across Latin America. After twenty years of observing and dealing with the U.S.-Cuba relationship, I thought we should shift the onus onto the Castros to explain why they remained undemocratic and abusive.”[137]

As Secretary of State, Clinton did not have to handle domestic surveillance programs, but as a Senator following the attacks of September 11th, Clinton voted in favor of the Patriot Act, which has since been used in the massive collection of major telecommunications companies’ metadata. Though less vocally than several other candidates—both Republican and Democrat—Clinton called for the end of the Patriot Act as the Senate considered its reauthorization and expressed support for the bipartisan reforms in the Freedom Act. “Congress should move ahead now with the USA Freedom Act—a good step forward in ongoing efforts to protect our security & civil liberties,” she tweeted.[138] When asked about Edward Snowden, Clinton opined, “I think turning over a lot of that material—intentionally or unintentionally—drained, gave all kinds of information, not only to big countries, but to networks and terrorist groups and the like.”[139] She feels his actions harmed national security and questioned why a liberty and privacy advocate would take refuge in such countries as China and Russia.

Hillary undoubtedly has unparalleled firsthand experience in foreign policy, as any former Secretary of State would. Incorporating more elements into her platform, she ties the necessity to address climate change to national security, prioritizes improving global and public health to prevent disastrous outbreaks like Ebola, and advocates engaging the private sector’s science and technology fields to offer insights and skills to improve America’s understanding of both cyberspace and outer space. She also sees a need to foster a prosperous economy and raise the incomes of Americans in order to project American strength and values abroad.  “The United States can, must and will lead in this new century,” she proclaims, “This is a moment that must be seized through hard work and bold decisions, to lay the foundations for lasting American leadership for decades to come.”[140]

About the author:
*FPRI is pleased to present this compilation of the foreign policy views of the Democratic candidates for president by FPRI Intern Brandon Whitehill, a rising sophomore in the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University.  This essay complements his earlier ebook, A Quick Guide to the Foreign Policy Views of the Republican Presidential Candidates, the third most sought-after publication on our website in the month of July. We enjoyed an excellent crew of interns this summer, and they recount their experiences and their views of world affairs in this podcast produced by FPRI intern Sam Koffman.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Notes:
[1] Webb, Jim. Presidential Announcement Press Release. Jim Webb Official Website, July 2, 2015.

[11] Ibid.

[13] Ibid.

[18] Ibid.

[22] Ibid.

[24] Ibid.

[30] Ibid.

[37] Ibid.

[42] Ibid.

[44] Ibid.

[49] Ibid.

[54] Ibid.

[60] Ibid.

[63] Ibid.

[65] Ibid.

[68] Ibid.

[72] Ibid.

[73] Ibid.

[74] Ibid.

[76] Ibid.

[77] Ibid.

[78] Ibid.

[79] Ibid.

[85] Ibid.

[86] Ibid.

[87] Ibid.

[88] Ibid.

[89] Ibid.

[93] Ibid.

[97] Ibid.

[100] Ibid.

[101] Ibid.

[102] Ibid.

[108] Many of these allegations—the preventable nature of the attack, the speculation of how much Hillary Clinton and the State Department knew and when they knew it, and the rise of radicals following the fall of Qaddafi and attack in Benghazi—are explored by the House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence: Investigative Report on the Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Facilities in Benghazi, Libya, September 11-12, 2011.

[114] Ibid.

[115] Ibid.

[121] The inscription on the box was in Russian and supposed to say “reset,” but Lavrov pointed out that the word on the box translated to “overcharge” or “overload.”

[127] These revelations were part of a series of investigations into possible Clinton misconduct as Secretary of State by conservative author Peter Schweizer in his book Clinton Cash. The subsequent allegations of wrongdoing have not gained traction in the form of a criminal investigation, but Clinton is currently under a criminal probe by the Federal Bureau of Investigation for mishandling classified information as Secretary of State by using a private email server.

[135] Ibid.

Why Liberals Are Dangerous And Must Never Be In Charge – OpEd

$
0
0

The Left (liberal mainstream media) practically had a ticker tape parade for Ohio Gov John Kasich for answers he gave on two issues during the GOP debate. Liberals’ praise of Kasich shows they have chosen emotion over logical reasoned thinking. This makes liberals irresponsible and dangerous. These people must never be in charge.

The Left praised Kasich for his entitlement program that is $1.4 billion in the red, thus far – in only 18 months. Kasich defended his program saying it was the Christian thing to do.

First of all, the Bible does not support stupid business practices and irresponsible spending of other people’s money. Proverbs 22:29 “Have you seen a man who is expert in his business? he will take his place before kings; his place will not be among low persons.”

In 1972 Hurricane Agnes flooded our small black Baltimore suburban community. Dad and my brother rescued residents from the roofs of their homes in a rowboat. As a community leader my dad, Rev. Marcus, assisted residents in acquiring relief checks from the Red Cross. My parents were among those who lost everything in the flood. What if Dad took his family’s relief check and distributed it among needy neighbors? Liberals would praise Dad for his compassion for the poor. The reality is Dad’s behavior, though well-intended, would be irresponsible to my mom and younger siblings living at home. Such common sense adult thinking seems to escape liberals.

Gov Kasich furthering an entitlement program that is void of economic sense is irresponsible to taxpayers, no matter how well-intended. Feelings trump common sense these days in America. Liberals will call me a mean Republican who does not care about people for suggesting that politicians spend responsibly. Most liberals are brain-dead emotion-driven fools.

Kasich’s answer regarding gay marriage was the second issue that won him great praise from liberals. Kasich said while he is a traditional guy, the courts made gay marriage law and he will comply. Kasich added that he attended a friend’s gay wedding because we must love people. I am sorry Gov Kasich and Leftists, but it is absurd to suggest that loving someone means embracing everything they do. Once again, more brain-dead emotion-driven liberal reasoning. Sometimes, love means rejecting a friend or family member’s behavior.

My daughter married a woman. I explained to my daughter why as a Christian, I could not support their union. She understood. We still have a great loving relationship, though we differ when the Patriots play the Broncos. Go Manning!

Here is an interesting observation. Like many youths, a handful of Dad’s adult grand-kids have gone through a rebellious stage; straying from their Christian upbringing like the prodigal son. Each of them hid their sinful behaviors from my dad. They hold Dad’s opinion in high regard with a desire to make him proud. Even my daughter seems to care more about my dad’s opinion of her than mine.

I asked myself, why? Dad is not a tyrant in any way. He is loving and easygoing. So why do the millennials in our family care so much about their granddad’s opinion of them.

The answer is all of their lives, they have witnessed the consistency in Dad’s Christian walk and his commitment to biblical standards. The grand-kids know Dad loves each of them dearly, but is faithful to his commitment to Christ. My daughter and the other grand-kids love Dad greatly and give him their utmost respect.

Perhaps, millennials are looking for trustworthy leaders/politicians who stand for something. GOP presidential contender Sen Ted Cruz comes to mind. Too many wimpy baby-boomers embrace every Leftist anti-Christian and anti-American socialist/progressive agenda item; desiring to be thought of as modern and enlightened.

People in positions of power who place feelings above common sense, responsibility and reasoned thinking are dangerous. They (liberals) must never be in charge.

Take sanctuary cities. These are liberal governed US cities that have officially decided to disobey federal law by sheltering illegal aliens.

Liberalism has been described as a “mental disease.” For whatever reasons, liberals who run sanctuary cities feel it is unfair that we in America have so much. Consequently, they roll out the red carpet to illegals; gifting them welfare, college tuition and benefits unavailable to legal American citizens.

Years ago, a businessman friend moved to California. He made more money than ever. And yet, he had to move back to the east coast because the cost of living was too high. Amazingly, my friend said if he was an illegal alien, he and his family could have survived just fine in California. Does that make sense? Of course not. I wrote a satirical song about his experience titled, “Can’t Afford the Sunshine.”

Talk about crazy brain-dead thinking – even with epidemic high numbers of murders, rapes and assaults on Americans by repeat criminal illegals, nothing seems to soften sanctuary cities’ commitment to welcome and protect illegals. Wacko liberals in charge are dangerous, folks.

Liberals wrongfully get high marks for compassion. The truth is real compassionate leadership makes wise responsible decisions. Liberals define a compassionate nation as how long that line is of people showing up for their daily allotment of free fish. In America today, 94 million Americans are unemployed. And yet, they have all the necessities and many of the luxuries of working Americans. Forty-seven million Americans are on food stamps. Millions of capable Americans are receiving disability.

Conservatives define compassion as liberating citizens from government. Government handouts are always accompanied with government dictates and controls. There “ain’t” no free lunch.

Conservative government says we will gladly give you fish for the short term. However, our greater goal is to help you experience the dignity, pride and independence of catching your own fish. We will get rid of the overreaching government controls on catching fish and help you acquire a fishing rod.

Who do you want running the show (your county) folks – brain-dead emotion-driven liberals or adult conservatives?

How To Confront The Islamic State – OpEd

$
0
0

By Adil E. Shamoo*

The atrocities of ISIS become more shocking every day. In June, the Iraqis exhumed nearly 600 bodies of Shia recruits in Tikrit, an important Sunni Triangle city north of Baghdad. ISIS appears to have executed as many as 1,700 Iraqis and buried them in mass graves.

Last summer, when ISIS gained control of Mosul — Iraq’s second largest city — it should have spurred a re-thinking of U.S. policy. Despite the training of Iraqis to take control of their own security, the Iraqi forces defending Mosul melted away. A few hundred ISIS fighters easily defeated nearly 30,000 Iraqi military personnel trained and equipped by the Americans.

The victory of ISIS in Mosul was built on its past success in recruiting nearly 65 percent of the members of Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria. Its success in Mosul in turn emboldened its leadership and increased its popularity among many disaffected individuals in the region and beyond. ISIS explicitly links its successes to the past glories of the Arab empire. Many young Muslims worldwide see ISIS as a new wave: a fierce, invincible force that stands in stark opposition to the ideas and deeds of the West.

ISIS also takes advantage of the hatred of Western policies in the Middle East. These policies include the unprovoked U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths and untold destruction. The invasion added to the region’s simmering resentment of the West’s support for corrupt and brutal regimes throughout the Middle East.

The reactions to these policies have been compounded further by the bombs and drones used to kill “terrorists” along with significant number of civilians. In January, the U.S. used a “signature strike” — a drone strike based on a pattern of movement and intelligence — against an al-Qaeda compound in Pakistan. The strike killed two Western hostages. In Yemen, another drone strike killed a dozen civilians in a wedding party in 2013. One can only imagine how many civilians have been killed in recent years — the most conservative estimates range from a few hundred to over a thousand — and how much anti-U.S. rhetoric has resulted.

Key to the success of ISIS in Iraq is its alliance with Saddam Hussein’s former military officers who lost their jobs when the United States toppled Saddam and his Baathist government. The former Iraqi military officers provided ISIS with their strong knowledge of Iraq, essential contacts, organizational and intelligence-gathering skills, bomb-building expertise and capacity, and tactical military support.

These resources were evident in the fall of Ramadi in May, after more than a yearlong siege. This devastating failure was also due to the lack of engagement of the local Sunni population in fighting ISIS. This segment of the population perceives the Iraqi central government as insufficiently aligned with Sunni interests, and it is therefore reluctant to fight on the government’s behalf.

The Sources of ISIS’s Support

It’s one thing to acknowledge how the United States has inadvertently helped ISIS grow. It’s quite another to figure out how to decelerate and diminish the growth of ISIS.

In order to understand how to deal with grassroots and terroristic movements, like those that emerged in Iraq in 2005 or ISIS today, we need to understand that they have multiple layers of support. Each layer of support sustains and grows the movement. The core of the movement represents the core fighters — those who carry arms and bombs. The subsequent layers of support provide weapons, finance, storage, safe housing, needed supplies, and intelligence. The outermost layers represent those who provide support through ideology, acquiescence, silence, and indifference.

All sides in a conflict operate according to an overall moral framework that justifies their existence and operations, though each side might consider the frameworks adopted by the others to be flawed. Peaceful negotiations have also been part of a moral frame, as was the case eventually with the Irish Republican Army. However, the core fighters in ISIS are committed, vicious, and sadistic. Nothing short of strong self-defense to defeat them is likely to work.

Harvard professor Stephen Walt suggests that a policy of containment and patience will result in ISIS creating a limited state and eventually joining the rest of the civilized world. He argues that many other governments currently in power — such as those in the Americas, China, Russia, and Israel — were built on brutal and coercive means. Yet Walt does not consider any moral frame in the outcome of these nations. Should the world have waited for the Nazis to become civilized?

The people of the region opposing and ready to fight ISIS and their allies, including the United States, must demonstrate a clear and consistent moral basis in all of their acts. We cannot fight ISIS while routinely killing civilians in the process. We must peel back the layers of support for ISIS by engaging the local community to work with us out of their own beliefs — and not just solely for our payments. Each layer of support to ISIS requires the engagement of a different community.

In the long run, promoting sectarianism in Iraq by arming the Sunnis in the Anbar region will help strengthen ISIS, a sectarian Sunni group. Eventually many Sunnis will go back to their roots and support their own group against Iranian Shia and foreign infidels. Already an explosion of sectarianism mixed with a generous supply of weaponry has engulfed the whole region.

It might seem almost impossible to disentangle the United States from the corrupt and brutal regimes in Iraq and Syria while also using these same regimes to fight against ISIS. Yet this is necessary in the short term. In the long term, a policy that emphasizes partnerships with the people and organizations on the ground to promote a system of government built on freedom and democracy is truly the only way peace will be brought to the region. Those efforts can begin immediately.

Both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama have attempted to navigate between these short- and long-term goals in the Middle East. But both presidents have quickly reverted to short-term policies of brute force. President Obama recently accepted an offer from Turkey to use a military base adjacent to Syria to enforce a safe zone. That will only give Turkey a free hand to bomb the Kurdish fighters in Iraq that have been longtime U.S. allies.

Such a deal challenges the moral basis of U.S. action against ISIS. Our immoral acts will always weaken our moral frame and undercut the values we profess. President Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech touting freedom and democracy was beautiful. Can we still act according to those ideals?

Steps to Diminish ISIS’s Influence

The first thing the United States should do is shore up those parts of the region where democracy has successfully taken root. Tunisia’s people have proven their commitment to build a free and democratic society. The West should provide Tunisia the resources to build their economy, provide medical and educational services, and strengthen their young democracy. There is nothing like a successful Arab democracy to diminish ISIS’s murderous ideology and its lure of false glory.

Second, the United States should stop the use of drones and acknowledge that it’s immoral to kill non-combatant civilians. The killing of civilians undercuts any moral frame we use against ISIS and helps ISIS gain more recruits.

Third, Iraq must become free of ISIS as soon as possible. Instead of putting boots on the ground, the United States must provide Iraqi and Kurdish forces with as much support as possible. Allowing Iraq to fall apart will only enforce the ISIS narrative that the West wants to “divide and conquer” of Arabs by any means.

Fourth, the United States should establish a stronger relationship with the Muslim community in America. Muslims in the United States are ready and willing to defend their country, and they should be treated with respect, not surveillance.

Finally, the West must work more closely with Iran in prioritizing the defeat of ISIS. Passage of the nuclear deal with Iran is the first step. Collaborating with Iran to resolve Syria’s conflict is also necessary, even though it will likely lead to a less-than-perfect solution.

ISIS and its horrific acts can derail U.S. efforts and relationships in the Middle East. We must act, and we should act. But at each step, we must address the layers of support for this terrifying movement as we keep our eyes on our moral frame and our long-term goals.

*Adil E. Shamoo is an associate fellow of the Institute for Policy Studies and a senior analyst for Foreign Policy in Focus. He blogs at forwarorpeace.com and can be reached at ashamoo@som.umaryland.edu.

How To Understand Those 60 Trainees In Syria – OpEd

$
0
0

By Joel Veldkamp*

“I can look out at your faces and see you had the same reaction I do, which is that that’s an awfully small number.”

So said American Defense Secretary Ash Carter in testimony before an incredulous Senate Armed Services Committee on July 7, explaining that the $500 million American project, announced over a year ago, to train and arm a new Syrian rebel army to bring the Islamic State to its knees and force a political settlement on the Syrian regime simultaneously has, to date, trained just 60 fighters.

 

It’s been 53 months since the Syrian uprising started, 48 months since President Obama called for regime change in Syria, 29 months since the Islamic State took over northeast Syria, 14 months since they took over northwest Iraq, and 11 months since Obama promised to destroy them, and the entirety of the U.S.’ publicly-announced ground strategy to dislodge the Islamic State from Syria and end the war there is embodied in five dozen “trained” Syrians in Turkey somewhere.

The weeks following Panetta’s testimony would bring no more reassurance. On July 29, reports emerged that Jabhat al-Nusra, al Qaeda’s Syria affiliate, had captured a group of fighters from Division 30, a rebel group U.S. officials had earlier claimed was among those participating in the train-and-equip program. What would happen when the U.S.’ chief nemesis crossed the U.S.’ handpicked fighters? Division 30 responded by issuing a statement asking its “brothers” in JAN to release the fighters for the sake of the opposition’s “unity” and refused to fight JAN. The extent of the Pentagon’s response was to vigorously deny that any of the captured Division 30 fighters were themselves recipients of U.S. training.

It’s easy to understand the consternation of the senators at the Panetta hearing. How could the U.S. foreign policy establishment possibly be so incompetent?

To move beyond incredulity and consternation, we need to put this training project in context. Over four brutal years of civil war, the U.S. has announced a succession of programs to aid “moderate” anti-government fighters in Syria – all similarly modest, even embarrassingly so. But U.S. rhetoric about these programs has been jumbled and self-contradictory, and has had only the most tenuous connection to events on the ground – and to the true scale of U.S. involvement in Syria. The wide gulf between rhetoric and reality evinces a deliberate public information strategy to conceal the nature of that involvement.

The U.S. and Syria’s Rebels – Rhetoric

Starting in March 2012, a year into the conflict, officials at the White House and the State Department began claiming that the U.S. was directly aiding the Syrian armed opposition with “nonlethal aid,” such as communications gear and medical supplies.

A year later, after the outgoing Pentagon and State Department chiefs Leon Panetta and Hillary Clinton embarrassed the administration by making internal disagreements over Syria public, the incoming Secretary of State John Kerry announced that President Obama was going to begin “direct assistance” to the Syrian armed opposition, “though nonlethal,” including “food and medical supplies.” The Associated Press hailed this non-announcement as “a significant policy shift.”

Four months later, in June 2013, responding to mounting reports of regime chemical weapons use and the fall of the strategic city of Qusayr to regime forces, American officials told the New York Times that “the Obama administration…has decided to begin supplying the rebels for the first time with small arms and ammunition.” White House Advisor Ben Rhodes, however, would only speak of “direct military support” to the opposition: “He would not specify whether the support would include lethal aid, such as weapons.” Since this was the third time direct nonlethal support for the armed Syrian opposition had been announced “for the first time,” we can sympathize with the journalist who complained at the next day’s State Department press briefing, “I have to say – I hope I’m not alone in this – there is still quite a lot of confusion.”

The amounts of “nonlethal” aid that the opposition was said to receive were always small. By May 2014, it totaled just $80 million, and included “552,000 MREs, 1,500 medical kits, vehicles, communications equipment, generators, and over three tons of surgical and triage medical supplies.” Spread out over two years and a battlefield the size of Syria’s, these figures are only marginally more impressive than Carter’s 60 trained fighters.

Occasionally – usually at moments of pressure to “do something” – American officials let it be known that the U.S. was actually sending “lethal” aid to the rebels as well. In September 2013, after President Obama was forced to back down from his threat to bomb Syria after the Damascus countryside chemical weapons massacre, the Washington Post reported that, “according to U.S. officials,” arms shipments from the CIA, “limited to light weapons and other munitions that can be tracked” had begun “arriving in Syria.” The Post described this as “a major escalation of the U.S. role in Syria’s civil war.”

In April 2014, after the breakdown of peace talks in Geneva and several months of regime successes in retaking lost ground, U.S. government officials leaked the news that the U.S. had provided rebels in Syria with twelve 20-year-old antitank missile launchers – news that was given exhaustive coverage by the Post, the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the Brookings Institute and the Foundation for the Defense of the Democracies, among others.

Mostly, however, U.S. officials maintained the line of “nonlethal aid” in public. In December 2012, a “senior administration official” told reporters, “until we understand how these arms promote a political solution, we do not see how provision of arms is a good idea.” In April 2013, Acting Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones reaffirmed, “We do not believe that it is in the United States or the Syrian people’s best interest to provide lethal support to the Syrian opposition.” Asked about the possibility of sending arms in February 2014, a senior U.S. official told the BBC, “We already, as you know, provide non-lethal aid.”

Three days before Mosul fell to the Islamic State, National Security Advisor Susan Rice stated publicly, for the first time, that the U.S. “is providing lethal and non-lethal support” to the “moderate, vetted opposition” in Syria. In reporting this statement, the staff of the Israeli daily Haartez noted, “Rice gave more details than are usually provided by Obama administration officials.”

With so much contradictory information, it is little wonder that confusion reigned on this point, not only among the general public, but among American media organs and policymakers. Thus, after the fall of Mosul, the New York Times claimed that the city’s fall had increased “scrutiny” on “the decision by the Obama administration not to arm moderate Syrian rebels at the outset,” and Hillary Clinton was quick to note that she “pushed very hard” for arming moderate rebels. This past June, outgoing Daily Show host Jon Stewart ruthlessly mocked various Republican figures for proposing arming rebels in Syria, and implicitly praised Obama for not doing so. In criticizing the current nuclear deal with Iran, the Wall Street Journal recently editorialized, “The U.S. could have armed the Free Syrian Army to defeat Iran’s allied Assad regime in Damascus” to get a better deal.

These statements reveal the widely-held assumption that the U.S. has avoided engagement in the Syria conflict, but these statements can only exist in blissful denial of publicly-available information about the reality of the U.S.’ role in Syria since 2011.

The U.S. and Syria’s Rebels – Reality

Among the publicly-reported details of that role:

  • January 2012: According to the New York Times, three and a half months before the administration first announced “nonlethal aid” to the opposition, a secret CIA-assisted airlift of arms to the rebels began, which by March 2013 would comprise 160 flights and “an estimated 3,500 tons of military equipment.” The CIA helped “Arab governments shop for weapons,” and “vetted rebel commanders and groups to determine who should receive the weapons as they arrive.”
  • June 2012: The New York Times reported that the CIA was in Turkey helping U.S. allies in the region decide which Syrian rebel groups should receive “automatic rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, ammunition and some antitank weapons,” which were “being funneled mostly across the Turkish border by way of a shadowy network of intermediaries including Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood and paid for by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.”
  • August 2012: Reuters reported that the CIA was helping to “direct vital military and communications support to Assad’s opponents” from Turkey, under the authority of an intelligence finding from the president earlier in 2012, which “broadly permits the CIA and other U.S. agencies to provide support that could help the rebels oust Assad.”

In January 2013, Scott Stewart, an analyst at the private intelligence firm Stratfor, concluded based on an examination of weapons seen in opposition-released videos that “the current level of external intervention in Syria is similar to the level exercised against the Soviet Union and its communist proxies following the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan.”

All of this predates the announcement of John Kerry’s “significant policy shift” to provide “food and medical supplies” to the opposition. It also predates the State Department’s April 2013 affirmation that, “We do not believe that it is in…the Syrian people’s best interest to provide lethal support to the Syrian opposition.”

The scale of the material aid reportedly delivered to the armed Syrian opposition by the U.S. and its allies through these operations dwarfs anything discussed in the government’s public statements. In February 2014, the Abu Dhabi daily The National reported that Gulf states, with logistical help from American intelligence, had delivered $1.2 billion in weapons and supplies to rebels in Syria since July 2013 alone:

“That amount is set to rise to as much as $2bn, with Saudi Arabia, which oversees the fund according to rebels, seeking to put in between $400m and $800m in additional money over coming months.”

All such numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, but the scale of Syria’s insurgency makes the figure credible.

In addition, while the U.S. loudly trumpeted its worries about inadvertently supporting “extremists” in Syria, its coordination with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey in this period – now well-known – belies this commitment. At one point, the U.S. publicly suspended its “nonlethal aid” program to “moderate rebels” after their warehouses in northern Syria were seized by “extremists.” The demonstration would have been more convincing if the “extremists” in question had not been from a group known as the Islamic Front, widely acknowledged to be bankrolled by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. A December 2013 report from the Brookings Institute looking at funding from Gulf countries for extremist groups in Syria claimed that “The U.S. Treasury is aware of this activity…but Western diplomats’ and officials’ general response has been a collective shrug.”

These reports of U.S. involvement in facilitating the arming of the opposition have never been refuted, or even denied. They are simply ignored, and lost in the confusion created by the landslide of contradictory public statements. The fact that leading newspapers and public figures now reprimand the Obama administration for not arming the rebels demonstrates the success of this apparent public information strategy.

The New Plan

This history should inform how we view U.S. government claims about its current doings in Syria.

In the public eye, at least, the effort to aid existing opposition groups in Syria has been replaced by a plan to create a new Syrian rebel army from scratch, training and equipping them in a neighboring country. But all the evidence suggests that this effort is no more serious, and no more central to the U.S.’ real plans in Syria, than the “nonlethal aid” program that consumed so much attention and public debate while American intelligence, with American regional allies, was organizing massive arms shipments to the opposition.

Obama first announced this new train-and-equip program June of last year. Congress approved funding for it in September. By November, recruitment for the new army still had not begun. By January, a host country for the program still had not been chosen, despite offers from four countries. In February, Turkey and the U.S. finally signed an agreement to begin training the force in Turkey, with Turkish and U.S. officials giving contradictory answers about whether the force would be allowed to fight the Assad regime. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff recently claimed that the Islamic holy month of Ramadan was slowing the training process because, “there’s a lot of folks that are interested in being with their families during that period” – a problem no other fighting force in Syria seems to have. In a devastating post-mortem published in July, Jamie Dettmer of The Daily Beast observed that the original plan called for training 15,000 soldiers by 2018, and asked “whether Syria would even exist by the time the envisaged force was at full strength.”

If this program were truly central to the U.S.’ Syria strategy, it is difficult to believe that this level of delay and recruitment failure – and now, attacks from Jabhat al-Nusra – would be tolerated. No doubt the military and intelligence officers tasked with its implementation are working sincerely. But for the U.S. foreign policy establishment as a whole, this program likely serves the same purposes as the State Department’s 2012-2014 initiatives to deliver MREs, radios and med kits to fighters in Syria: to demonstrate that the U.S. is involved, to create a public impression of an involvement so limited that it does not saddle the U.S. with any responsibility for the human catastrophe in Syria, and to consume media and legislative branch attention that might otherwise be directed at the main activities of the U.S. and its allies in Syria.

While this new training program spins its wheels, events on the ground in Syria are moving rapidly. Following the death of King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey have set aside their former squabbles and are cooperating in a renewed push to overthrow the Assad regime. This cooperation is manifest in a new rebel alliance, the Jaysh al-Fatih, led by al Qaeda’s Syria affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. If U.S.’ actions during the first three years of the conflict are any guide, this new joint initiative was not organized without American input or support.

Jaysh al-Fatih may be contributing to the U.S.’s stated goal of regime change in Syria. It may be contributing to an unstated U.S. goal of continuing a war that is very costly for Iran, on whose compliance with the U.S.-brokered nuclear agreement a great deal now rests. Jaysh al-Fatih may now be seen as a crucial counterweight to the Islamic State. It would be irresponsible to assign motivations to the U.S. policymakers from the outside, but unless they have had a recent change of heart, Jaysh al-Fatih’s al Qaeda links and its human rights violations (including violence against Christians and Nusra’s threat to forcibly convert Alawis) are unlikely to be an overriding concern for them. As the Brookings Institute’s Charles Lister writes, “The vast majority of the Syrian insurgency has coordinated closely with Al-Qaeda since mid-2012,” and the U.S. was helping to arm the Syrian insurgency since early 2012.

It has been necessary throughout the conflict, however, for the U.S. to distance itself from these troubling facts, by conveying the impression that its involvement in the conflict is limited to “nonlethal aid” – or, since last June, a small training program in Turkey.

Why does the U.S. only have sixty fighters to show for its $500 million, year-old training program? Because it reinforces the narrative – nurtured by a raft of previous hopelessly inadequate, publicly-announced and -debated programs to support the opposition – of the U.S. as a helpless bystander to the killing in Syria, and of President Obama as a prudent statesman reluctant to get involved. While the Senate berates the Pentagon chief over the program’s poor results, the U.S. is meanwhile outsourcing the real fight in Syria to allies with no qualms about supporting al Qaeda against their geopolitical opponents – unless the U.S. is, as before, cooperating directly or indirectly in that support.

Whereto Now?

Once it is recognized that the “helpless bystander” narrative is false, and that the U.S. has been deeply involved in the armed conflict almost from the start, it becomes both possible and necessary to question that involvement.

The U.S.’ direct cooperation with Turkey and Gulf states in arming the Syrian insurgency, combined with its refusal to engage in sincere peace talks (as expertly detailed by Hugh Roberts in The London Review of Books), virtually guaranteed that the war would continue without conclusion. The present crisis – 200,000 dead, over half the population driven from their homes, much crucial infrastructure destroyed and Syria’s territory fractured into multiple de facto statelets that will probably never reunify – is the result. Considering the Syrian people’s welfare, it is difficult to imagine a worse policy outcome. A refusal early-on to interfere in the conflict or countenance regional allies’ cooperation with extremist groups, or a genuine attempt at peace talks later in the conflict, or a full-fledged humanitarian intervention of the sort requested by many opposition figures – almost any policy alternative would have been better.

At this stage, it may well be too late to save Syria, but if U.S. policymakers want to try, a good place to start would be to make ending the violence – without preconditions and without regard for their preferred political outcome – the overriding objective in U.S. diplomacy and covert action. In a multi-religious country like Syria, that must entail restraining the ambitions of openly sectarian militant groups like Jaysh al-Fatih. It will mean walking away from a publicly-declared commitment to regime change in Syria. It will likely also mean straining relations with regional allies already discomfited by the nuclear pact with Iran. But to end the conflict, the policies and positions that have been perpetuating it must be changed.

*Joel Veldkamp is an MA candidate at the University of Chicago’s Center for Middle East Studies who has previously lived in Damascus, Syria. Follow Joel on Twitter: @joelman42  Parts of this article are adapted from a paper presented at the 2015 Middle East History and Theory Conference at the University of Chicago: “Narrative and Reality in Direct U.S. Aid to the Syrian Armed Opposition, 2012-2014

1MDB Crisis And Political Funding: Whither Malaysian Politics? – Analysis

$
0
0

As the Malaysian political crisis deepens over the 1MDB controversy, Prime Minister Najib Razak fights for his political survival amid a landscape of uncertainty.

By Yang Razali Kassim(

Muhyiddin Yassin, UMNO’s deputy president, cuts a cool composure. He remains calm and resolute as party Number 2 despite his dismissal as deputy prime minister by Prime Minister Najib Razak, reportedly with the backing of a majority of UMNO’s influential caucus of division chiefs.

The night after he was sacked on 28 July 2015, Muhyiddin’s wife was gripped by intense rumour that her husband was about to be arrested. Muhyiddin called his successor, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, to seek confirmation. When Zahid finally called back at two in the morning, Muhyiddin asked: “So is your first job as the new deputy prime minister to catch an old one?” Recounting his post-sacking experience to a gathering of party supporters in his home state, Johor, Muhyiddin said: “He (Zahid) told me not to believe rumours; ‘you can sleep peacefully tonight’.”

Political earthquake

Indeed, Muhyiddin has pledged to remain loyal to the party. But he let it be known that he was still UMNO’s elected deputy president – second only to Prime Minister Najib who dropped him from cabinet for being openly critical over the deep controversy in 1MDB, a state investment fund advised by Najib. More tellingly, Muhyiddin made clear that he would not be silenced over 1MDB as it was “too big an issue” for him, as a loyal deputy leader, not to be concerned about. This is as good as laying the groundwork for an inevitable clash of wills down the road.

1MDB is the epicentre of Malaysia’s latest political earthquake, shaking Najib’s government to the core and splitting the political leadership. It was triggered by foreign media allegations of 1MDB funds going into Najib’s personal account, which Najib contests. When the controversial articles by the Wall Street Journal and whistle-blower Sarawak Report broke out, Najib denied the funds were “for personal gain”. A special inter-agency task force was immediately formed to investigate the allegations.

As the crisis gets more convoluted, two significant developments have emerged. The first is the growing split within Najib’s dominant UMNO, with reports of a possible revolt by Muhyiddin loyalists from his home-state of Johor. This is also the proud birth place of UMNO – ruled traditionally by head-strong Sultans. By the third day after Najib sacked his deputy premier and the attorney-general, among others, a second shift emerged, this time in the 1MDB narrative.

There was a gradual admission of the existence of an UMNO political fund, which hitherto had never been openly talked about. Firstly, statements by top UMNO leaders conceded that there is such a thing as a trust fund held in the personal account of Najib, as allowed under UMNO’s party constitution. Secondly, the fund is not from 1MDB but is a “political donation”.

The anti-corruption commission, upon investigation, declared that the US$700 million – equivalent to 2.6 billion Malaysian ringgit – was from a private Middle Eastern donor, not funds from 1MDB. Najib took the counter-narrative a step further when he said he would be tabling a transparency bill on political funding to parliament soon and challenged the opposition to declare their own funding sources. The opposition accused him of trying to turn the tables.

The emergence of the political funding, not surprisingly, has opened up a new hornet’s nest. It was immediately criticised by many as a tactic to deflect attention from the 1MDB crisis. With the monies declared to be party donation funds, UMNO leaders felt justified to defend Najib as party president. His fiercest critic, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, however, disclosed that in his time, there was no such thing as a personal account for party funds, though there was a party trust account held by three trustees, with him being one.

Mahathir said if the political donation had funded UMNO’s campaigns in the 2013 general election, then the huge amount could have been in breach of election rules on the limits of political funding. If true, there could also be wider implications on the legitimacy of the last elections.

Najib’s manoeuvering amid leadership crisis

The new tussle over party political funding appears to be buying Najib some time as he manoeuvers to buttress his position and possibly even crush his critics. True enough, a warrant of arrest has been obtained for Claire Rewcastle-Brown, the founder of Sarawak Report which blew the whistle on the 1MDB controversy.

The high-powered Special Task Force set up in the immediate aftermath of the expose has now been disbanded. To add to the convolution, the police have arrested investigators from the task force’s anti-corruption team, provoking accusations of questionable interference by the police. The opposition and civil society have now rallied behind the anti-corruption commission amid what appeared to be an unprecedented inter-agency conflict. With some UMNO leaders also voicing alarm, the incipient clash between two law enforcement bodies has since died down.

Indicative of what is to come, a commentary in The New Straits Times on 2 August 2015 by its group editor, Jalil Hamid, hinted at more changes afoot, “including in key UMNO positions at the party headquarters and state liaison chiefs”. Further, “Some top-level reshuffle involving key government entities and government-linked companies is also being planned”.

Going by this commentary, Najib’s next move appears to be a counter-offensive painting himself as the victim of an international “conspiracy” out to “criminalise” him. The opinion-page article headlined “Who are the conspirators?” quoted the police chief as not ruling out “the possibility of a conspiracy to topple the prime minister undemocratically”.

While Najib appears to have strengthened his hand for now by acting tough, which he claims is to preserve cabinet cohesion, this is unlikely enough to fundamentally resolve one of Malaysia’s most sensational political crises. Indeed, this imbroglio has only just begun.

Should Najib survive this, it is hard to imagine how he would emerge unscathed. Already, rumblings have emerged within UMNO calling for Najib to step down – echoing Mahathir. More critical for UMNO is whether the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition it leads will retain power in the next general election, having lost the popular vote at the 2013 polls despite winning more than half the parliamentary seats. As Malaysian politics enters yet another explosive and unpredictable phase, a key question remains: Where will this all lead to?

*Yang Razali Kassim is a Senior Fellow with the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. An earlier version appeared in the South China Morning Post.

Is Turkey In Over Its Head? – Analysis

$
0
0

By Scott N. Romaniuk

Turkey’s war against Islamic State began with bombs being dropped on Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) forces – a central actor in the ongoing insurgency across parts of Syria (a country that ostensibly no longer exists) and Iraq. The PKK has sought autonomy from Turkey since the mid-1980s, with tens of thousands of Turkish and Kurdish soldiers and civilians being counted as part of the casualties of the roughly 30-year conflict. Attempts to carve out a sovereign Kurdish homeland from Turkey during the 1980s led to the deaths of over 30,000 people, many of whom were ethnic Kurds. As part of Turkey’s new role in its conflict with ISIS, the United States has been granted permission to launch aircraft from the Incirlik airbase located near Adana. The United States already has approximately six fighter aircraft and several hundred military personnel stationed at the base.

The battle of Kobane, which lasted from mid-September 2014 until mid-March 2015, brought the fighting to the borders of Turkey. At the end of July 2015, when Turkey entered into the conflict, its attacks against the PKK were the first strikes against the Kurds situated in northern Iraq since the brokering of a peace deal between Turkey and the PKK in 2013. The Kurdish group’s accusations that the Turkish government is plotting terrorist attacks (in collusion with ISIS forces) against ethnic Kurdish communities greatly adds to tensions due to Ankara’s already inimical disposition toward the Kurds.

The situation in northern Iraq and Syria is a Gordian knot: Turkey vs. Kurds (with Kurdish intergroup fighting predating ISIS) vs. ISIS (with internal fragmentation and al-Qaeda support) vs. Syrian opposition groups.

Turkey’s engagement with the Kurds does not resemble an even distribution of force. First, Ankara is battling the Turkish Kurds – the PKK that operates in northern Iraq and Syria (also in northern Syria) and that is struggling for autonomy. Second, Ankara is also antagonistic towards, though not fighting, the Syrian Kurds – the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Third, Ankara supports the Iraqi Kurds – the KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government), Peshmerga (the military forces of the KRG), the KDP (the dominant Iraqi Kurdish party), and the PUK (the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Fourth, all of these Kurdish groups are fighting ISIS, which Turkey is also fighting. Not all of the Kurdish groups are at peace with one another. The PYD and Kurdish National Council are rivals, so are the PUK and the KDP. As part of this mix, Syrian opposition groups have displayed both strategic and tactical value on the battlefield for Western forces. During the course of the fighting, Ankara is indirectly (and in several cases, inadvertently) supporting the military efforts of the Kurds.

Is Turkey providing a platform for the emergence of an independent Kurdish state?

It might be that the prospect of an independent Kurdish state is unrealistic and that Turkey prefers the existence of ISIS forces south of its borders. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has adopted a very harsh tone toward the idea of Kurdish sovereignty, vowing to block the creation of such a state. “I am addressing the whole world,” and that, according to Erdogan, “[w]e would never allow a state to be formed in northern Syria, south of our border.” Despite Kurdish efforts at democracy, they remain subordinate to Arab domination and authoritarianism. Western media outlets are increasingly lending sympathy to the Kurds’ struggle but not necessarily to the idea of an independent Kurdish state in the Middle East – a scenario that would have to involve the dismemberment of four states: Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq. Kurdish self-determination would have to be carved out of these existing sovereign states.

Westerners subscribe to the idea that the Kurds either stand as a force for good or are fighting for a good cause, with people from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands (among other countries) traveling to the Middle East to lend their support by fighting alongside Kurdish troops. Western governments have not wholly opposed these efforts. According to the Home Office, “UK law makes provisions to deal with different conflicts in different ways – fighting in a foreign war is not automatically an offence but will depend on the nature of the conflict and the individual’s own activities.”

This is a narrow shift, but one deserving of close observation, in the tendency of Western attitudes towards the fate of the Kurds. The West and Westerners are certainly paying attention much more than they used to. However, a major misrepresentation in Western media discourse now is that an independent Kurdistan would be the close ally of the United States and of Israel. Its creation would be a brief afterglow of many years of war in Iraq, the folly of the Arab Spring (the so-called “Fourth Wave” of democracy), the Syrian civil war, and what can aptly be typified as a still-nascent ISIS conflict in the Middle East.

The conflict involving ISIS and the West (and its friends and allies), that has strained the relationship shared by Turkey and some Kurdish groups, has also supplied the YPG with low-to-moderate military strength (some analysts claim that the YPG has more than 15,000 recruits). The spotlight now shines on ISIS as well as other militant groups that have the potential to form their own pseudo-states. During the course of intensive fighting, the YPG has come to control a notable strip of territory along Turkey’s southern border with Syria – a country that could be divided up in the near future. Ankara, which was reluctant to join the US-led conflict against ISIS, is now part of the same conflict in which the YPG (labeled a terrorist organization by Turkey) plays a leading role. Ankara’s previous apprehension over joining in anti-ISIS efforts strained its relations with Western countries, including its NATO brethren. Turkey’s standing reluctance to fight ISIS, nonetheless, has also provided the YPG with time and space necessary to build its military strength, which in turn, leads to Kurdish political power.

Turkey has created a number of military and ideological frontlines that it will have to manage while coordinating plans with the West to push ISIS forces out of northern Syria. Ensuring that the right Syrian opposition forces fill the void will be a simultaneous constraint. Unfortunately, Ankara and the West need to factor the unreliability of groups fighting in Syria in a coordinated plan of action. Jabhat al-Nusra, a close ally of al-Qaeda, also plays a role in Turkish/Western plans to stabilize the area, given that it stands as one of the many groups in the area that is made-up of Islamists extremists, including jihadists.

Turkey’s complex relationship with various Kurdish groups and its hesitance to act in tandem with its NATO allies has cultivated extensive uncertainty and instability. The strain of choosing between ISIS and the Kurds (the biggest nation in the world that has yet to enjoy the benefit of self-determination) is growing. Turkey has stepped beyond the safe confines of its borders with what, by many accounts, would be seen as sufficient military capabilities. However, the wave of attacks that have taken place in Istanbul and Sirnak only a few weeks after Turkey took its bold stride is a symptom of a foreign policy decision that poses very systemic risks to Turkey’s internal and external security.

This article was published at Geopolitical Monitor.com

Mullah Omar’s Death: Pakistan’s Role In Afghanistan – Analysis

$
0
0

With western forces out of Afghanistan, Pakistan fears Taliban winning exclusive power in Afghanistan and thus tries to facilitate a power sharing deal between Taliban and the Afghan government. Mullah Omar’s death is a factor behind this pursuit.

By Halimullah Kousary*

The mysterious announcement recently of the death of Mullah Omar, the spiritual leader and commander of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the rise of Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour as successor, have raised questions about the role of external forces in the country.

Mullah Omar founded the group in 1994 and was conferred the title of “the commander of the faithful” with a pledge of allegiance from 2,000 Afghan and foreign Islamic scholars. The appointment of Mullah Mansour has led to suspicion and dissent within the group’s core cadre as he is accused of conniving his way to the top leadership with Pakistan’s help. This dissent within the Taliban could render the new leadership vulnerable to influence by external forces.

Pakistan’s quest for influence

Pakistan seeks to gain influence in Afghanistan that is strong enough to counter India, even if that compromises Taliban’s goal of empowering the “Islamic Emirate” in the country. Now that the Ghani government in Afghanistan is tilting towards it, Pakistan is trying to pressurise the Taliban to negotiate a power sharing deal and marginalise those within the group who oppose it. Mullah Omar could have been a sacrifice in this design.

Some of the key commanders of Taliban claimed that he did not die due to an illness but that he was killed as a part of a planned scheme. The timing of his death and the announcing of it came at two critical junctures. He is said to have died/or been killed in 2013 when most Coalition Forces were already withdrawn from Afghanistan. The announcement also came two years later when Pakistan purportedly became committed to facilitating face-to-face peace talks with the Afghan National Unity Government, headed by President Ashraf Ghani.

The announcement of Mullah Omar’s death maybe an attempt to benefit the pro-peace talks Taliban by sending out a message to the cadre of the group at all levels that Omar has long gone; a new leadership now holds the reins and should be obeyed.

For the first time, Pakistan facilitated face-to-face peace talks in July 2015 between the Taliban and Ghani’s government; it avoided going to such lengths when his predecessor Hamid Karzai was power. There are two explanations for Pakistan’s differing gestures towards the two Afghan governments. It could be that Mullah Omar refused to bow to Pakistan’s pressure to hold peace talks with the government. Or Pakistan had perceived President Karzai’s government to be irreconcilably pro-India and any thought of bringing Taliban to the negotiation table with such government was not in its best interest.

Pakistan’s former President Pervez Musharaf openly admitted that Pakistan strived to undermine Karzai’s government through supporting Taliban’s continued military campaign, while he described Ghani’s government “balanced” and supported a sincere gesture of cooperation in peace talks from Islamabad.

Taliban’s new leadership

Mansour comes to the forefront in this likely pursuit by Pakistan. Without having Islamabad on his side, Mansour would not have been able to take such a bold step as authorising direct peace talks with the Afghan government without the consent of other key leaders of the group. Mansour authorised representatives who attended the July meeting with Afghan officials in Murree, while the Qatar delegation – the official Taliban body to run political affairs – reiterated that Taliban would not hold peace talks with the Afghan government in the presence of foreign military forces in the country and that it does not recognise Ghani’s government as legitimate.

Tayyeb Agha, head of the Qatar delegation, resigned following Omar’s death. He described keeping Omar’s death a secret a historic blunder and argued that the new leadership, appointed outside Afghanistan, is unlikely to serve the interests of the group – a reference to Pakistan’s role in Mansour’s appointment.

Mansour, in his first audio message as the leader of the group, vowed to continue the fight until Islamic rule is empowered in Afghanistan. But the prevailing sense among Afghan experts is that the message is aimed at addressing the current dissent to his leadership. They believe that Mansour and his supporters are bent on striking a power sharing deal with the Afghan government eventually.

Pakistan’s larger fear

Although often described as a symbolic leader, the non-existence of Omar’s leadership has a far-reaching impact on Taliban, leaving the group more vulnerable to Pakistan’s influence. Omar’s death can help Pakistan seek a political configuration in Afghanistan where power is shared between Taliban and the Afghan government. Pakistan’s reason for seeking such a deal lies in its fears of Taliban winning exclusive power and reinstating the “Islamic Emirate” in Afghanistan.

This could encourage and even collaborate with the Pakistani Taliban to fight for the same goal against Pakistan. Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which recognised Mullah Omar as supreme leader and “commander of the faithful”, long ago declared the “Islamic Emirate of Waziristan” in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

However, an important question for the Afghan government is whether power-sharing with the splintered Taliban could ensure stability in Afghanistan. Those elements within the group that try to act independently of Pakistan may ally with foreign militant operatives in Afghanistan to challenge any power-sharing deal and keep the conflict burning in the country.

*Halimullah Kousary is head of research with the Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies (CAPS) based in Kabul, Afghanistan. He was previously an associate research fellow with the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.


China’s Stock Market Collapse And Exchange-Rate Depreciation: What Next? – Analysis

$
0
0

Two episodes of panic have broken out in China’s financial markets in the course of no more than a month: a stock market collapse and only very recently a Renminbi (RMB) depreciation engineered by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). This note reviews what has happened so far and explores the potential consequences.

By Alicia García-Herrero*

This paper analyses the recent collapse of China’s stock market and the measures taken by the Chinese authorities to prop it up as well as the potential consequences of its actions. It also reviews the recent decision of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to put the Renminbi (RMB) on a course towards depreciation in the quest of both more exchange-rate flexibility and to regain external competitiveness for an economy that is rapidly decelerating.

(1) The stock market collapse: what to read from it and its potential consequences

Bull and bust: what has happened so far

It has taken three weeks of unprecedented government intervention but the Chinese authorities have finally managed to subdue the world’s wildest stock market. After eight bear years, the Chinese stock market started to rally last autumn against the backdrop of a new easing cycle introduced by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which officially started in November 2014. As if this were not enough in a largely liquidity-driven market, the PBoC promoted stock market financing by easing margin credit conditions.

Why was there a bull market to start with?

The stock market rally was clearly sponsored by the Chinese government. It all started with the widely trumpeted announcement of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect last year and the plan for a huge number of IPOs following suit. The underlying reason for pushing the stock market at that time was that Chinese banks and corporations needed a venue to raise equity after an era of excessive leveraging and neither the Shanghai nor the Hong Kong stock markets were well placed after years of a bear market.

The need for Chinese corporations and banks to avail themselves of fresh equity cannot be underestimated. On the one hand, corporate debt has grown six times from 2005’s levels (see Figure 1). On the other hand, Chinese banks are not only heavily exposed to these corporates, which are still their main source of finance, but also to local governments whose borrowing from banks is starting to be restructured under a pilot programme to swap the loans for bonds, which –in any case– will continue to be held by banks. To make a long story short, China’s governments needed a bull stock market to transfer part of the cost of cleaning up its corporates’ and banks’ balance sheets. It was also positive that the Stock Connect would help gather more cash outside China.cha1

The key measures to support the bull market came from the PBoC via several interest rate cuts as well as the reserve requirement ratio. All of this encouraged companies to bring IPOs to the market and to carry out debt for equity swaps, but it also allowed Chinese corporates and banks to continue to leverage as ample liquidity was available. In order words, as it could not be otherwise, monetary easing has only helped put more wood on the fire rather than help China to deleverage. The demand for stocks came easily for two mean reasons: the real estate market was no longer a venue for quick gains and monetary policy easing had made it even harder to get a decent return on money, not only in the official banking sector but also in shadow banking.

As a result, the Shanghai stock market skyrocketed with nearly a 60% increase between January and June 2015 (see Figure 2).cha2

In the third week of June, things took a turn for the worse until they quickly ended in a dramatic sell-off on 4 July. The trigger was actually the announcement by China’s securities regulator that it would ban brokerage firms from providing unregulated margin funding to investors. To make things worse, the announcement came as investors went into profit-taking as doubts emerged about further easing from the PBoC. This was more of a shock to the system than one can imagine as margin financing in China is much larger than elsewhere (around 5%-6% of market capitalisation and 12% of the float). As the sell-off continued over several days, there was a broader pull-back of margin trading coupled with margin calls that forced some investors to sell their holdings. The situation deteriorated rapidly so that one third of China’s stock-market capitalisation was wiped out, equivalent to a quarter of the country’s GDP.

What have the Chinese authorities done to tame the stock market?

There can be no doubt that the Chinese authorities have conducted the most aggressive and swiftest stock-market intervention in world history. The measures taken can be classified into two types: first, injecting as much liquidity as possible to the system; and, secondly, reducing the market to its minimum so that intervention can be even more effective.

As regards liquidity intervention, the PBoC was the first to act by scrapping the loan-to-deposit ratio on 24 June and then cutting interest rates and reserve requirements, selectively, on 27 June. Immediately after, on 29 June, the State Pension Fund was allowed to buy a larger share of stocks. On 5 July as the stock market continued to slide down, brokerages announced they would put US$19 billion to prop up equity prices until the Shanghai SE index reached 4.500 points. On 8 July insurers were given greater freedom to buy stocks and China Securities Finance Corporation (CSFC) –a relatively unknown company until then– started buying stocks, especially from smaller companies. As if these measures were not enough to inject liquidity, a massive stock-support plan –run by CSFC and valued at as much as US$483 billion– was announced on 20 July. Just to put this figure into context, it would require as much as 200 basis points in reserve-requirement cuts to throw this amount of liquidity into the system. It is also more than half what the US Government earmarked for the Troubled Asset Relief Program in 2008 to boost banks’ capital levels and rescue ailing institutions.

The second type of measures, geared to reducing the size of the market, include taking out over 1,000 companies from China’s various stock markets (about half of its total stock market capitalisation) from 5 July onwards. Also on 5 July, as many as 28 IPOS on the waiting list were cancelled. During the same time, foreign investors were not allowed to (short)sell and executives at Chinese corporations were asked not to dump their shares.

With such drastic measures, it is no surprise that the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded around 14% from its low to close above 4,000 points on 21 July. By the same token, volatility also came down to pre-sell-off levels.

The fact that the stock market is now calm should not be interpreted as if all problems have vanished. The sell-off even seems to be as a sudden rush which shows the degree of the malaise affecting the Chinese economy. In fact, the economy is clearly decelerating well below the official 7% growth rate of the second quarter of 2015 and, at the same time, it is continuing to leverage.

It is important to ponder on what might be the potential consequences of the sell-off by detaching ourselves from the level of the Shanghai Composite Index and looking ahead.

Some thoughts on potential consequences

First, corporations who had access to the stock market or where counting on an IPO will need to find funding elsewhere. More bond and bank financing will need to happen. Shadow banking does not seem to be as easily available as it has been coming down to growth levels similar to the rest of the banking sector, so it is now harder for corporations to find any new financing space there. This means that corporate leverage will continue to increase and there may be some selective defaults as the economy remains weak and there is a good chance that it deteriorates further. The sectors at higher risk are those with large overcapacity, such as coal, steel, shipbuilding and commodity trading.

Secondly, banks will have a hard time tapping equity (other than organically) to grow at the pace needed to keep funding cash and equity-strapped corporates. At some point, thus, the central government may need to recapitalise the banks.

Thirdly, notwithstanding monetary easing (through orthodox and unorthodox measures as those described above), additional leverage will make corporations think twice before engaging in new investment, which will not help economic growth. Beyond the funding constraints, the confidence shock of the stock market collapse both for investors (including households) and borrowers (corporations funded in the stock market) should take a further toll on the economy.

Finally, and most importantly, on the fiscal side, conditions are extremely lax and they will continue to be so in the near future since the Chinese authorities are terrified at a sudden economic slowdown at this time. Local governments are back with new expansionary measures as reflected in the RMB600 million new bonds issued in May. The second debt swap for an additional RMB1 trillion also opens the door to new projects. Such fiscal easing will help growth but only marginally since the return to such massive investment can no longer be as high. In fact, investment-to-GDP was close to 49% in 2014. In addition, many of the measures (especially the US$483 billion stock-support plan through a China Securities Corporation) should also increase the central government’s fiscal deficit (if properly reported). In addition, part of the burden of the local government debt is being passed on to the central government through the debt swap initiative so there is no doubt that central government debt will increase. An increase in taxes should be ruled out in the current circumstances.

In a nutshell, not only will corporates be much more leveraged, but also the public sector at large, including the central government. China’s total debt is close to 300% of GDP according to McKinsey Global Institute so it can only get worse given the measures taken to tame the stock market sell-off. On this point, it is obviously too early to know what the impact on the economy will be but it is important to realise that, even if the situation stabilises, at least one percentage point could be shaved from China’s growth rate for 2015. The main damage will be in the financial sector, security brokerages and banks, which itself could already account for that one percentage reduction in growth this year (more so if it is considered that the booming stock market has added more than half a percentage point to growth in the first quarter of 2015). This could be just the starting point so that we should be aiming at a larger reduction in GDP growth unless the government re-engineers another monster of the likes of the 2008-09 fiscal stimulus package. However, do not forget that this would only be a short-term relief to China’s long-term issues anyway.

(2) A difficult exchange rate depreciation and what to expect

What has happened so far and why?

The PBoC surprised the markets yesterday by lifting the daily fixing rate of US$-CNY by 1.9% and triggered an effective 1.8% RMB depreciation against the US$ –the currency’s biggest one-day move since July 2005 when Beijing first started the exchange rate reform–. The market actually knew that the RMB was too appreciated as shown by a spot rate which was consistently above the fixing for quite some time already. Today, the PBoC managed to surprise those who believed that yesterday was a one-off action as suggested by the PBoC itself. By lifting the daily fixing again by 1.6% today, the PBoC basically followed its announcement that it would use the contribution of FX market makers for the fixing. Ironically, the day is closing after heavy intervention by the PBoC and allied forces to prevent the RMB depreciating too rapidly.cha3

It looks as if the rules of the game are now clearer so that the PBoC will take the market’s view before setting the daily fixing. As we realise today by the PBoC’s massive intervention to keep the exchange at a depreciated but manageable level, this will not be as simple as that. In fact, the view that the PBoC will now –after so many years of exchange-rate control– become a price taker in the forex market to achieve reserve currency status is probably too naive. If that was the objective, the PBoC would have been much better off widening the exchange rate band as it initially announced on 24 July and it never really did. A wider band would have allowed the market to move the RMB to its cheaper ‘equilibrium’ value without such a strong hint from the PBoC (by a sudden change in the fixing). That sudden change in plan and the very negative data we have had during the last few days seems to indicate that the key reason for such an action was supporting a flagging economy.

They way forward for the PBoC

In the current circumstances the PBoC will need to strike a balance so that it can achieve enough of a depreciation without destabilising the markets and, thus, avoiding massive capital outflows.

China’s lost competitiveness is pretty massive. The weakening of the euro and the yen explain a good part of it as shown by the 25% nominal effective appreciation of the RMB last year, basically coinciding with the beginning of the US dollar bull market. However, things are even worse when taking into account China’s higher inflation compared with its trading partners. No matter how low Chinese inflation may be, other key trading partners, especially Europe and Japan, have even lower rates. This is why China’s real effective exchange rate has already appreciated by more than 30% since the beginning of 2015. Finally, wage increases, the bread and butter of manufacturing costs, have hovered around 10% for quite a few years notwithstanding the very low inflation environment.

On the other hand, capital outflows have also been massive. Both recorded and unrecorded outflows reached a peak in the first quarter of 2015, at around US$200 billion. Overall, regardless of surplus in the current account as well as the still positive net inflows from foreign direct investment, China still lost US$345 billion in reserves in one year (from June 2014 to June 2015) and as much as US$42.5 billion only in July. It is quite clear that capital outflows are an important concern for the PBoC to allow for a substantial depreciation of the RMB.

Finally, it is quite clear that engineering a moderate but still relevant depreciation would be ideal but it will be difficult to achieve and many risks still lie ahead. To minimise the risk, the PBoC will continue to provide ample liquidity to the system and probably restrict capital outflows even further.

Conclusion

The second half of 2015 will probably be remembered in China as one of the worst in recent times. Not only has the stock market collapsed but the engineered depreciation might not work out as expected. At the same time, the economy continues to show its weakness regardless of the massive monetary stimulus. Both markets will need to be watched very carefully, as will the consequences for the rest of the world.

About the author:
*Alicia García-Herrero, Senior Research Fellow at the Elcano Royal Institute | @Aligarciaherrer

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute.

Stars, Stripes And Status Quo: US Flag Raised In Havana – OpEd

$
0
0

By Rob Craven*

On January 3, 1961, three United States marines stepped outside the Cuban Embassy in Havana to lower the American flag. This act carried momentous implications. The flag was never raised again. Earlier that day, President Dwight Eisenhower officially closed the embassy and cut formal diplomatic ties with the island nation amidst mounting tensions with the new revolutionary government led by Fidel Castro.

The empty flagpole has stood alongside what had become the U.S. Interest Section as a subtle reminder of the broken ties between Cold War foes. When the embassy closed, many, President Eisenhower included, did not expect the freeze in relations to last as long as it did. “It is my hope and my conviction,” Eisenhower said on January 3, 1961 “that in the not too distant future it will be possible for the historic friendship between us once again to find its reflection in normal relations of every sort.”[1] Today, 54 years later, those same marines accompanied Secretary of State John Kerry and other U.S. delegates to see Old Glory rise on the Havana waterfront once again.

Following a courageous decision by the Obama Administration to rejoin relations broken long ago, Secretary Kerry traveled to Cuba to personally oversee the official transition from interest section to embassy. The American seal and a sign will adorn the outside of the reopened embassy.

Yet, despite the apparent thaw, there are still reminders of past scars. There is no symbol more ubiquitous than the Plaza of Anti-Imperialism and the Mount of Flags.

Opened in April 2000, the Plaza features three steel arches that are a tribute to combatants against global imperialism. Familiar names such as Frederico Engels, Vladimir Lenin, and Ernesto “Che” Guevara appear on plaques that decorate the foundation of each arch.
statue

At the end of the plaza a tribute to Cuba’s national hero, José Martí, stands tall. Martí, the leader of the Cuban independence movement against imperial Spain in 1895, points menacingly at the building that is now officially the U.S. embassy in Havana. In his arms he holds a child; a symbolic representation of the young Cuban nation he helped to create. Martí shields the child from imperialism—a clear message.

In 2006 Castro erected el monte de las banderas, a mass of 138 flagpoles, each 20 meters high. Another piece in a petty propaganda war provoked by President George W. Bush and the U.S. Department of State, the flagpoles were intended to obscure an electronic ticker on the uppermost floors of the edifice from passing motorists and pedestrians along the Malecón—Havana’s oceanfront drive.[2]

The ticker, fashioned by the Bush Administration in an effort to supersede government censorship on the island, featured anti-Cuban slogans and quotes from American heroes calling for democracy.[3]

Though the Obama Administration sensibly removed the ticker in 2009, the flagpoles and plaza remain. Such startling symbolism will be difficult to ignore as officials from both states attempt to normalize relations. Beyond the pomp and circumstance surrounding the event, such durable elements prove that relations are anything but normal.

After inaugurating the reopening of Cuba’s embassy in Washington earlier this summer, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla underscored the many barriers that still remain. Rodríguez made clear that true normalization is impossible as long as the embargo on the island remains U.S. law. [4]

Though President Obama has eased some restrictions, only Congress can remove the remaining vestiges of the Cold War relic, an unlikely possibility within the foreseeable future with Republicans controlling a majority in both chambers.

Regardless of lingering mistrust and uncertainty, Kerry’s visit represents one more remarkable step toward peace following more than five decades of diplomatic enmity.

“The time has come for us to move in a more promising direction,” Secretary Kerry said at the ceremony this morning, ushering in a “truly historic moment” in diplomatic history.[5]

*Rob Craven, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Notes:
[1] http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=12048

[2] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jul/27/us-mission-ticker-cuba

[3]http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/07/27/us.cuba.propaganda.ticker/index.html?eref=onio

[4] http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/14/politics/cuba-embassy-opening-john-kerry-visit/index.html

[5] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33919484

Kerry At Flag Raising Ceremony In Havana, Cuba – Transcript

$
0
0

By John Kerry, US Secretary of State

(U.S. Embassy, Havana, Cuba) — Please be seated, everybody. Thank you very, very much. Muchas gracias. Buenos dias. I’m so sorry that we are a little bit late today, but what a beautiful ride in and how wonderful to be here. And I thank you for leaving my future transportation out here in back of me. I love it. (Laughter.)

Distinguished members of the Cuban delegation – Josefina, thank you for your leadership and for all your work of your delegation; excellencies from the diplomatic corps; my colleagues from Washington, past and present; Ambassador DeLaurentis and all of the embassy staff; and friends watching around the world, thank you for joining us at this truly historic moment as we prepare to raise the United States flag here at our embassy in Havana, symbolizing the re-establishment of diplomatic relations after 54 years. This is also the first time that a United States Secretary of State has been to Cuba since 1945. (Applause.)

This morning I feel very much at home here, and I’m grateful to those who have come to share in this ceremony who are standing around outside of our facilities, and I feel at home here because this is truly a memorable occasion – a day for pushing aside old barriers and exploring new possibilities.

And it is in that spirit that I say on behalf of my country, Los Estados Unidos acogen con beneplacito este nuevo comienzo de su relacion con el pueblo y el Gobierno de Cuba. Sabemos que el camino hacia unas relaciones plenamente normales es largo, pero es precisamente por ello que tenemos que empezar en este mismo instante. No hay nada que temer, ya que seran muchos los beneficios de los que gozaremos cuando permitamos a nuestros ciudadanos conocerse mejor, visitarse con mas frecuencia, realizar negocios de forma habitual, intercambiar ideas y aprender los unos de los otros.

My friends, we are gathered here today because our leaders – President Obama and President Castro – made a courageous decision to stop being the prisoners of history and to focus on the opportunities of today and tomorrow. This doesn’t mean that we should or will forget the past; how could we, after all? At least for my generation, the images are indelible.

In 1959, Fidel Castro came to the United States and was greeted by enthusiastic crowds. Returning the next year for the UN General Assembly, he was embraced by then-Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev. In 1961, the Bay of Pigs tragedy unfolded with President Kennedy accepting responsibility. And in October 1962, the missile crisis arose – 13 days that pushed us to the very threshold of nuclear war. I was a student then, and I can still remember the taut faces of our leaders, the grim map showing the movement of opposing ships, the approaching deadline, and that peculiar word – quarantine. We were unsettled and uncertain about the future because we didn’t know when closing our eyes at night what we would find when we woke up.

In that frozen environment, diplomatic ties between Washington and this capital city were strained, then stretched thin, then severed. In late 1960, the U.S. ambassador left Havana. Early the following January, Cuba demanded a big cut in the size of our diplomatic mission, and President Eisenhower then decided he had no choice but to shut the embassy down.

Most of the U.S. staff departed quickly, but a few stayed behind to hand the keys over to our Swiss colleagues, who would serve diligently and honorably as our protecting power for more than 50 years. I just met with the Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter, and we’re grateful to Switzerland always for their service and their help. (Applause.)

Among those remaining at the embassy were three Marine guards: Larry Morris, Mike East, and Jim Tracy. As they stepped outside, they were confronted by a large crowd standing between them and the flagpole. Tensions were high. No one felt safe. But the Marines had a mission to accomplish. And slowly, the crowd just parted in front of them as they made their way to the flagpole, lowered Old Glory, folded it, and returned to the building.

Larry, Mike, and Jim had done their jobs, but they also made a bold promise that one day they would return to Havana and raise the flag again. (Applause.)

At the time, no one could have imagined how distant that day would be.

For more than half a century, U.S.-Cuban relations have been suspended in the amber of Cold War politics. In the interim, a whole generation of Americans and Cubans have grown up and grown old. The United States has had ten new presidents. In a united Germany, the Berlin Wall is a fading memory. Freed from Soviet shackles, Central Europe is again home to thriving democracies.

And last week, I was in Hanoi to mark the 20th anniversary of normalization of relations between the United States and Vietnam. Think about that. A long and terrible war that inflicted indelible scars on body and mind, followed by two decades of mutual healing, followed by another two decades of diplomatic and commercial engagement. In this period, Vietnam evolved from a country torn apart by violence into a dynamic society with one of the world’s fastest growing economies. And all that time, through reconciliation, through normalization, Cuban-American relations remained locked in the past.

Meanwhile, new technologies enabled people everywhere to benefit from shared projects across vast stretches of ocean and land. My friends, it doesn’t take a GPS to realize that the road of mutual isolation and estrangement that the United States and Cuba were traveling was not the right one and that the time has come for us to move in a more promising direction.

In the United States, that means recognizing that U.S. policy is not the anvil on which Cuba’s future will be forged. Decades of good intentions aside, the policies of the past have not led to a democratic transition in Cuba. It would be equally unrealistic to expect normalizing relations to have, in a short term, a transformational impact. After all, Cuba’s future is for Cubans to shape. Responsibility for the nature and quality of governance and accountability rests, as it should, not with any outside entity; but solely within the citizens of this country.

But the leaders in Havana – and the Cuban people – should also know that the United States will always remain a champion of democratic principles and reforms. Like many other governments in and outside this hemisphere, we will continue to urge the Cuban Government to fulfill its obligations under the UN and inter-American human rights covenants – obligations shared by the United States and every other country in the Americas.

And indeed, we remain convinced the people of Cuba would be best served by genuine democracy, where people are free to choose their leaders, express their ideas, practice their faith; where the commitment to economic and social justice is realized more fully; where institutions are answerable to those they serve; and where civil society is independent and allowed to flourish.

Let me be clear: The establishment of normal diplomatic relations is not something that one government does as a favor to another; it is something that two countries do together when the citizens of both will benefit. And in this case, the reopening of our embassies is important on two levels: People-to-people and government-to-government.

First, we believe it’s helpful for the people of our nations to learn more about each other, to meet each other. That is why we are encouraged that travel from the United States to Cuba has already increased by 35 percent since January and is continuing to go up. We are encouraged that more and more U.S. companies are exploring commercial ventures here that would create opportunities for Cuba’s own rising number of entrepreneurs, and we are encouraged that U.S. firms are interested in helping Cuba expand its telecommunications and internet links, and that the government here recently pledged to create dozens of new and more affordable Wi-Fi hotspots.

We also want to acknowledge the special role that the Cuban American community is playing in establishing a new relationship between our countries. And in fact, we have with us this morning representatives from that community, some of whom were born here and others who were born in the United States. With their strong ties of culture and family, they can contribute much to the spirit of bilateral cooperation and progress that we are seeking to create, just as they have contributed much to their communities in their adopted land.

The restoration of diplomatic ties will also make it easier for our governments to engage. After all, we are neighbors, and neighbors will always have much to discuss in such areas as civil aviation, migration policy, disaster preparedness, protecting marine environment, global climate change, and other tougher and more complicated issues. Having normal relations makes it easier for us to talk, and talk can deepen understanding even when we know full well we will not see eye to eye on everything.

We are all aware that notwithstanding President Obama’s new policy, the overall U.S. embargo on trade with Cuba remains in place and can only be lifted by congressional action – a step that we strongly favor. For now – (applause). For now, the President has taken steps to ease restrictions on remittances, on exports and imports to help Cuban private entrepreneurs, on telecommunications, on family travel, but we want to go further. The goal of all of these changes is to help Cubans connect to the world and to improve their lives. And just as we are doing our part, we urge the Cuban Government to make it less difficult for their citizens to start businesses, to engage in trade, access information online. The embargo has always been something of a two-way street – both sides need to remove restrictions that have been holding Cubans back.

Before closing, I want to sincerely thank leaders throughout the Americas who have long urged the United States and Cuba to restore normal ties. I thank the Holy Father Pope Francis and the Vatican for supporting the start of a new chapter in relations between our countries. And I think it is not accidental that the Holy Father will come here and then to Washington, the United States at this moment. I applaud President Obama and President Castro both for having the courage to bring us together in the face of considerable opposition. I am grateful to Assistant Secretary of State Roberta Jacobson and her team, to our counterparts in the Cuban Foreign Ministry, to our chief of mission, Ambassador Jeff DeLaurentis and his extraordinary staff, for all of the hard work that has led up to this day. And I just say to our wonderful embassy staff, if you think you’ve been busy these past months, hold on to your seatbelts. (Laughter.)

But above all, above all, I want to pay tribute to the people of Cuba and to the Cuban American community in the United States. Jose Marti once said that “everything that divides men…is a sin against humanity.” Clearly, the events of the past – the harsh words, the provocative and retaliatory actions, the human tragedies – all have been a source of deep division that has diminished our common humanity. There have been too many days of sacrifice and sorrow; too many decades of suspicion and fear. That is why I am heartened by the many on both sides of the Straits who – whether because of family ties or a simple desire to replace anger with something more productive – have endorsed this search for a better path.

We have begun to move down that path without any illusions about how difficult it may be. But we are each confident in our intentions, confident in the contacts that we have made, and pleased with the friendships that we have begun to forge.

And we are certain that the time is now to reach out to one another, as two peoples who are no longer enemies or rivals, but neighbors – time to unfurl our flags, raise them up, and let the world know that we wish each other well.

Estamos seguros de que este es el momento de acercarnos: dos pueblos ya no enemigos ni rivales, sino vecinos. Es el momento de desplegar nuestras banderas, enarbolarlas y hacerle saber al resto del mundo que nos deseamos lo mejor los unos a los otros.

It is with that healing mission in mind that I turn now to Larry Morris, Jim Tracy, and Mike East. Fifty-four years ago, you gentlemen promised to return to Havana and hoist the flag over the United States Embassy that you lowered on that January day long ago. Today, I invite you on behalf of President Obama and the American people to fulfill that pledge by presenting the Stars and Stripes to be raised by members of our current military detachment.

Larry, Jim, and Mike, this is your cue to deliver on words that would make any diplomat proud, just as they would any member of the United States Marine Corps: Promise made, promise kept. Thank you.

Fidel Castro: The Revolutionary Dream Of Justice And Equality – OpEd

$
0
0

Writing is a way to be useful if you believe that our long-suffering humanity must be better, and more fully educated, given the incredible ignorance in which we are all enveloped, with the exception of researchers who in the sciences seek satisfactory answers. This is a word which implies in a few letters its immense content.

All of us in our youth heard talk at some point about Einstein, in particular after the explosion of the atomic bombs which pulverized Hiroshima and Nagasaki, putting an end to the cruel war between the United States and Japan.

When those bombs were dropped, after the war unleashed by the attack on the U.S. base at Pearl Harbor, the Japanese Empire had already been defeated. The United States, whose territory and industries remained removed from the war, became the country with the greatest wealth and the best weaponry on Earth, in a world torn apart, full of death, the wounded and hungry.

The Soviet Union and China together lost more than 50 million lives, along with enormous material damage. Almost all of the gold in the world landed in the vaults of the United States. Today it is estimated that the entirety of this country’s gold reserves reached 8,133.5 tons of this metal. Despite that, tearing up the Bretton Woods accords they signed, the United States unilaterally declared that it would not fulfill its duty to back the Troy ounce with the value in gold of its paper money.

The measure ordered by Nixon violated the commitments made by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. According to a large number of experts on the subject, the foundation of a crisis was created, which among other disasters threatens to powerfully batter the economy of this model of a country. Meanwhile, Cuba is owed compensation equivalent to damages, which have reached many millions of dollars, as our country has denounced throughout our interventions in the United Nations, with irrefutable arguments and facts.

As has been expressed with clarity by Cuba’s Party and government, to advance good will and peace among all the countries of this hemisphere and the many peoples who are part of the human family, and thus contribute to the survival of our species in the modest place the universe has conceded us, we will never stop struggling for peace and the well-being of all human beings, for every inhabitant on the planet regardless of skin color or national origin, and for the full right of all to hold a religious belief or not.

The equal right of all citizens to health, education, work, food, security, culture, science, and wellbeing, that is, the same rights we proclaimed when we began our struggle, in addition to those which emerge from our dreams of justice and equality for all inhabitants of our world, is what I wish for all. To those who share all or part of these same ideas, or superior ones along the same lines, I thank you, dear compatriots.

Revisiting India’s Foreign Policy Under Modi – Q&A

$
0
0

By Col. R. Hariharan*

Q: It is about fifteen months since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power. During this period foreign relations appear to have been given great importance. What do you think are the changes in India’s foreign policy now?

A: I am no expert on foreign policy; but as a strategic analyst I find that the basic tenets of our foreign policy enunciated after independence still continue to be the same. Our first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was a visionary; he evolved the foreign policy to further his holistic vision for India. It emphasized peace and harmonious relations with all countries and India finding its rightful place in the post-colonial world in keeping with its size and geostrategic location. He understood economic and industrial development as the keys to freeing the country from the shackles of colonial dependency and improving the lives of ordinary people. The five-year development plans were fashioned to achieve this.

From Nehru’s time foreign policy became prime minister-centric and has continued so, though the practice of appointing separate minister to look after external affairs came in vogue in 1964. Under Nehru’s stewardship, India played a leadership role among the newly independent countries of Asia and Africa. He chose to develop close relations with Peoples Republic of China (PRC) which was shunned by the Western powers. He led the non-aligned movement with emphasis on five principles of panch sheel to avoid Cold War contretemps. Probably, China’s aggression in 1962 was a moment of truth to Nehru as much as the nation bringing home the world of real politick in which we exist.

Nehru’s successors were not visionaries of the same order and they were by and large mission-oriented. As a result the country grew more inward looking and foreign policy became means to the ends of political leadership. However, they stuck to the basic principles of our foreign policy as set by Nehru. The end of Cold War and realignment of global strategic alignments have led to changes in India’s priorities in relationship-building, but the basic contours of foreign policy have remained the same.

Prime Minister Modi is perhaps the first prime minister in a long time who has spelt out his vision for India, soon after he assumed office in May 2014. He articulated it in his Independence Day on August 15, 2014. Since then he has fleshed out his vision at various national forums. Its main ingredients include: boosting India’s industrial growth by inviting foreign investment in infrastructure with emphasis on making things in India to increase job opportunities; to upgrade digital infrastructure for timely delivery of services to the people by developing smart cities; improve grass root public services to provide better governance, education, healthcare and clean environment to help maintain social cohesion with gender equity, and lastly to enlarge India’s strategic influence in the Asia-Pacific region in keeping with its growing global economic power.

The prime minister has adopted a personalized style of relationship building with his counterparts in other countries, particularly with China, Japan and the U.S; this seems to have paid handsome dividends. He prioritised India’s neighbouring countries in his foreign visits to leverage on India’s soft power and influence. Though he has visited 25 countries, his priority seems to be the Asia-Pacific region and as a corollary China, Japan and the US have been his favoured destination. He has departed from India’s traditional low profile foreign policy projection by making foreign interactions well publicized. Modi’s clear and assertive communication has helped him build bridges with the Indian Diaspora wherever he visited.

Though Modi’s foreign policy initiatives may not have yielded all the results he desired, he has gained the attention of global leaders who have welcomed his development agenda. This is an important take away after 15 months because given India’s massive and confusing socio-political compulsions; in any case to fulfil Modi’s ambitious agenda would take at least a decade.

Q: Though India might have done well in its external front, there seems to be no progress in our relations with Pakistan. How do you visualize India-Pakistan relations in the future?

A: You are right; there had been really no breakthrough in our relations with Pakistan, though Prime Minister Modi’s invitation to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for his inauguration and meeting thereafter kindled hopes of improvement in the relationship. But unfortunately, such hopes have been belied. In fact it has worsened with the escalation in ceasefire violations, terrorist infiltrations and attacks triggering of separatist agitations in Jammu and Kashmir, even spilling over to neighbouring Punjab.

The core problem in relationship building with Pakistan is its elected government does not enjoy the freedom to fashion and execute its foreign policy and trade (with India) without the concurrence of the army. During the last year or so Pakistan army has enlarged its ability to influence government policy after it became a guarantor to its survival from terrorist threat by successfully carrying out large scale operations against the Pakistan Taliban (Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan) terrorists.

So it is doubtful whether we can expect any change in Pakistan’s attitude to improve its relationship with India in the near future. The first step for it would involve Pakistan government taking firm action against all jihadi groups (patronized by the army) operating against India from Pakistani soil. Pakistan army has a deep seated grudge against the ignominy it suffered after Indian armed forces threw it out of East Pakistan, resulting in the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Given this background, the future of India-Pakistan relations looks bleak as long Pakistan government continues to remain hostage to Pakistan army. The recent boost to Pakistan’s strategic relationship with China has introduced a new and unpredictable element in the bipartisan relationship with potential to indirectly influence it.

Q: How about India’s relations with China? Can we expect any major improvement in India-China relations in the near future?

A: We must be realistic in our expectations regarding China. Resolving the hardy perennials bugging India-China relations – China’s illegal occupation of Indian territory, large Chinese claims on Indian territory in the Northeast and finalizing a mutually acceptable demarcation of India-China boundary (as China has refused to accept Mc Mahon Line as the boundary) may take a long time. Though the two sides have nominated special representatives to discuss the issues, China does not seem to have an urge to bring them to a closure in the near future. Though modalities to avoid accidental intrusions and conflict have been worked out between the two countries, there had been no real progress on these issues. So avoidance of conflict, rather than resolving disputes once for all seems to be the agreed flavour of the parleys between the two countries.

However, fortunately China’s President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi are focusing on realising their dreams of benefiting their people through peaceful and harmonious relationship. Realising that there was no point in waiting for the resolution of their long standing disputes, both leaders have focused on building a strong economic, trade and commercial relationship by pooling their resources and geographical advantages for mutual benefit. China has reciprocated Modi’s invitation to invest in infrastructure and manufacturing industries in India. India has shown its readiness to join the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) corridor project linking India and China, though India has not made up its mind on joining China’s ambitious ‘Belt and Road’ initiative in linking China to Central and South Asia as well as the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road to access Indian Ocean.

At the strategic level, there are both positive and negative developments. India has joined two international economic initiatives close to China’s heart – the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Bank launched by the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) grouping. India has also joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), started by China originally as an instrument of regional anti-terrorism cooperation, now evolving its own regional strategic dynamics. At the same time, India cannot afford to ignore China’s mega entry in Af-Pak region practically elbowing out India from the scene. Coupled with the whittling down of American presence and China’s massive aid of $46 billion aid to Pakistan (much more than the Marshall’s Plan outlay for post-war Europe), we can expect China to play increasingly an assertive role to further its strategic interests on our Western borders. This could emerge as a major, as yet unfathomed, factor in India-China relations in the coming years.

Q: With the rapid spread of Islamic State (ISIS)-spearheaded jihadi terrorism the world over, why India is not joining the global war on terror? Don’t you think it would be in India’s interest to do so?

Firstly, I would not use the Western coinage “global war on terror” to describe the operations of the U.S. and its Western and Gulf allies are carrying out in Iraq and Syria and elsewhere. There are a number of factors preventing India from joining the war against ISIS. The role of those carrying out the operations is suspect as their strategic objective is change of regimes in the Arab world which do not toe their line; as a result an arc of instability from Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Yemen has been created rendering at least a million refugees. The resulting instability has been exploited by ISIS, which is a clone of Al Qaeda.

This war has been made more complex by its Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict of interest involving Saudi Arabia on side and Iran on the other. India has a huge Shia population, next only to Iran, and India’s role has to take this aspect into reckoning. There is an economic aspect also relevant to India. The conflict has affected Indian expatriates working in these countries and further escalation of the war or spread of destabilization would only increase the plight of nearly two million strong Indian-workforce in this region.

There is no strategic context for India’s participation in this war, particularly when India has to safeguard its national security from Pakistan-based partners of Al Qaeda terrorists. In any case, India will have to deal with ISIS threat which could loom large at our own gates as when ISIS takes over the client groups of Al Qaeda in Pakistan. Moreover, militarily speaking, India does not have enough troops to spare for such a resource consuming counter-terrorism operation. Indian involvement could also worsen the operational capability of our armed forces at home, particularly when they are already reeling from shortage of weapons and armaments. Our first priority to should be to protect our own national interest; only then we should consider other requirements.

[This article answers questions raised in a radio interview on August 12, 2015.]

*Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info

Viewing all 73702 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images