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The Cascading Collapse Of Obamacare’s COOPs – OpEd

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One piece of Obamacare is already collapsing: The COOPs (cooperative insurers) that the federal government propped up with loans to compete in exchanges. Many are now closing down under pressure from state insurance departments, as they are threatened with insolvency because they charge premiums in the Obamacare exchanges that do not cover costs.

The administration is desperate to stave off the day of reckoning, going so far as to insist the federal loans be categorized as “assets” (rather than liabilities) on the COOPs’ balance sheets. Well, state insurance departments are having none of it. The story of Colorado’s Obamacare COOP illustrates why these new insurers were willing to risk insolvency in the exchanges, despite insisting they were doing business prudentially.

Last Friday, Colorado’s Division of Insurance ordered the state’s Obamacare COOP not to offer policies in the state’s Obamacare exchange next year. To show how quickly this COOP has fallen, I’ll share three stories:

First, from November, here’s the Colorado HealthOP’s CEO bragging about her low premiums as Obamacare’s second open season rolls out:

Colorado HealthOP chief executive Julia Hutchins said critics and competitors who say their aggressive pricing for the second open enrollment was an attempt to buy up market share have the wrong spin on things. The CO-OP is a fundamentally different approach, she said.

“We’re a nonprofit. We’re not trying to buy anything,” Hutchins said. “We were created to serve everybody.”

(Electa Draper, “Colorado Health CO-OP build to shake up state insurance marketplace,” Denver Post, November 17, 2014.)

Second, after the end of the second open season, here she is explaining how her grabbing huge market share through low premiums is a good business practice:

Colorado HealthOP, one of 23 CO-OPs nationwide, reduced premiums on its middle-tier, or silver, plans by an average of 10 percent. Its customer count shot up from about 14,200 in late 2014 to about 75,000 this enrollment period.

“We’re right about where we projected we’d be,” said HealthOP chief executive Julia Hutchins. “Growth is really important for stability. You really need a big pool to spread risk effectively.”

(Electa Draper, “Colorado HealthOP’s surge on insurance exchange carries red flag,” Denver Post, March 16, 2015.)

Finally, here is Colorado HealthOP’s press release, looking back in anger, in response to the regulator’s decision last Friday:

This morning, the Colorado Division of Insurance (DOI) announced that Colorado HealthOP will not be able to sell its plans on the Connect for Health Colorado marketplac

Colorado HealthOP’s closure is the latest in a series of CO-OP shut downs across the country, spurred by the federal government’s failure to pay billions of dollars in promised funding.

(Colorado HealthOP, “Colorado HealthOP vows to fight for member interest after Division of Insurance’s closure decision,” press release, October 16, 2015.)

So, the COOPs’ business plans did not fail. It is the taxpayers who failed! The COOPs expected to be able to go back to Congress for unlimited bailouts. Too often, this is a credible strategy for businesses dependent on government. Unfortunately for the COOPs, the taxpayers chose to elect representatives who were not interested in continuing this game.

This article appeared in The Beacon.


The Downsides Of Cheap Abundance – OpEd

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In college, Economics 101 is often described as the social science discipline that deals with the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services. MIT Economist Paul Samuelson liked to focus on scarcity, or more specifically, the allocation of scarce resources. “Abundance” was always a pretty word with an idyllic connotation for Professor Samuelson. I often wonder why there weren’t a few classes about the real-life consequences of abundance, along with scarcity and people’s material welfare.
The present generation of internet technology is a proper subject of study within an economic framework. It might help us understand what is happening to our society.

Let’s start with today’s highly-touted information age. At our finger-tips is the greatest free trove of information in human history. We can get it quickly and efficiently. Are we more informed? Are we hungry for more information? Do we read more books in an era of record production of books? Do we know more about what our congressional and state legislators are about? Are we more knowledgeable about history and its lessons?

My sense is that the present generation of students knows about popular art and music, and has a nascent awareness of current events. But an unfortunate consequence of the abundance of information available to them is that too many students have left themselves less informed than their predecessors about serious information regarding our overall society and the world. This includes geography, politics, economics, literature, history, the side effects of technology, the interactions between consumers, workers, taxpayers and corporations, the doings of City Hall, or even how to cultivate gardens. Alas, the virtual reality of the culture of addictive distractions and stupefying daily routines still reign.

Just about everyone now has a smart phone with which they can enter an endless world of spectator entertainment, video games, and checking of messages by the minute, to name a few of the engagements. Granted, serious news, feature stories, lectures, rallies, programs, and other materials are also available. Judging by the Twitter followers of Hollywood celebrities and even famous cats, dogs, and horses, for some internet users there is a crowding out of information that matters most for a functioning democracy. And unless you’re in one’s inner circle, try having a two-way communication with someone using any of the new technologies without long waits. The age of dial phones and letters had more than charm.

Energy presents another example of abundance. Historically, the United States had abundant, cheap energy and, with Canada, set the world’s record for wasting it; while Japan had limited domestic energy resources and became much more efficient in using what they produced and favored efficient cars, homes, and appliances. Energy efficiently used means less pollution and fewer greenhouse gasses.

Abundant cheap water has led to much waste of water. When water rates go up there is more efficient usage. California is experiencing water shortages and as a result of scarcity in combination with regulatory restrictions, people in California are wasting less water.

Making our abundant “commons” – owned by the American people – available to exploit freely or nearly so by corporations has led to vast wastelands. The public lands – one-third of the U.S. landmass plus huge off shore areas – are open to oil mining and timber companies for ridiculously low-price leases. For hard-rock minerals like gold and silver, the 1872 mining act only requires as little as $5 an acre to extract billions of dollars of minerals a year. No Royalties are required. Such unlimited use takes away the people’s resources with nothing but cleanup costs for the mining wastes left behind for taxpayers. (See bollier.org.)

When FCC chairman, Newton Minow, called television a “vast wasteland” in 1961, he wasn’t just speaking metaphorically. The radio and television broadcast stations control our public airways 24 hours a day. Because “We The People,” who are the landlords, do not reserve time daily for audience networks and also do not charge the stations for their use of public airwaves, broadcasters can waste their round-the-clock abundance (see Claire Riley’s “Oh Say Can You See: A Broadcast Network for the Audience,” Virginia Law Review (Fall, 1988)).

A relatively new entry in the world of abundance is corporate capital. The cries from business about a capital shortage in the 1970’s, so as to get more tax breaks, have long been muted by the trillions of dollars the U.S.’s big businesses have lying inert here and abroad. Such abundance has led to hundreds of billions of dollars in unproductive stock buybacks since 2000.

A leading analyst of big business behavior, Robert Monks, has called such buybacks a clear sign of incompetent or unimaginative management. By this he means that such profits should be used for productive investment, better wages, or more dividends to shareholders, mutual funds, and pension trusts who should be exercising more of their ownership leverage.

Instead, the corporate bosses prefer to apply such profits, derived from the sweat of their workers and also government provided corporate welfare, to reduce the earnings per share ratio which enhances the criteria for increasing their already sky-high executive compensation. Stock buybacks rarely sustain a higher share price.

What to do with this expanding phenomenon of “abundance” in a world wracked by public and private poverty and its damaging fallouts? We must impose wisely-used charges or taxes on the abundant commons. For example, charging royalties for hard-rock mining and raising leases to market-based prices for other publically-owned resources can be used for needed land reclamation. Charging rent for the use of public airways can pay for better interactive programming and establishing audience networks. Imagine how an audience network could facilitate the potential for the people to summon campaigning politicians to real debates on their own radio and T.V. stations.

Requiring telecommunications companies to donate some of the profits they make from customers who pay exorbitant fees to use smart phones could provide revenues for the development of civic applications, and would help to offset the trivialization that has arrived with the technology.

As for the capital glut, an excess accumulated profits tax will provide an incentive to put such capital to productive work or return it the shareholders – the owners of the corporations.

We’d better think more about “abundance” and its negative consequences.

Myanmar Goes To The Polls – Analysis

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By Susanna Mocker

On 8 November Myanmar holds important national and regional elections. While the elections are likely to be the freest since the military took power in 1962, a quarter of the seats in the national parliament remain reserved for the military. The incumbent Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is being strongly challenged by the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by the iconic Aung San Suu Kyi. Another 90 parties are contesting the election, reflecting the diversity of Myanmar.

Ethnic minorities could play a crucial role in the election, firstly because they are being marginalised by the big parties, and secondly (and paradoxically) because they could end up being kingmakers. Today Myanmar resembles a mosaic – a mosaic of more than 130 ethnicities, about two dozens armed groups, 800 000 Rohingya without citizenship and a political system that mixes elements of democracy and military rule with dysfunctional federal state design. Putting together these bits and pieces stands to unlock an economy of 200 billion USD by 2030, more than quadruple the size of Myanmar’s economy in 2010.

The USDP and the National Ceasefire Agreement

The elections cannot be understood without an eye towards the overall process of peace and nation-building in Myanmar. Even more so, since incumbent President Thein Sein entered his five-year term in 2011 with the promise to negotiate a national ceasefire agreement (NCA) and to work towards establishing peace. On 15 October the NCA was finally signed. While an important basis to be built upon in the upcoming political dialogue, the NCA does not cover the whole country. Ideally, 21 stakeholders would be included in the NCA to create a sustainable solution, but only 15 have been invited by the government to join the NCA. Only eight armed groups finally signed the NCA, leaving out the two biggest armed groups – the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) and the United Wa State Army. An alliance of ethnic political groups, the “United Nationalities Federal Council” stated that during the whole negotiations “the occurrence of widespread and ceaseless offensives against the ethnic nationalities by government forces has been the main stumbling block to achievement of nationwide ceasefire and peace in the country”.

Whether aggression was one-sided or not, it indicates that the USDP did not achieve the boost in credibility and popularity it had hoped for by delivering on the promised NCA amongst ethnic minorities. It remains to be seen whether the Burmese majority of the population will reward President Thein Sein for a hastily concluded NCA, signed with parties who were not at war with the government at the moment anyway.

The peace process influences elections in another way, too: Since war and conflict continue in Shan, Kachin and Kayin state, the Union Election Commission (UEC) realised its right to cancel the election in about 600 villages in these areas. There is a certain overlap with those ethnic groups not being part of the NCA. According to the Myanmar Times, the rate of vote cancellation is higher than in 2010 and will almost certainly affect millions of voters. Consequently, ethnic parties from these regions are likely to significantly underperform in the elections and not be adequately represented in parliament.

The NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi: from “Asian Mandela” to pragmatic politician

While there are over 90 parties competing in over 1000 constituencies, the NLD is the most important competitor of the USDP. Given the situation of the country, both major parties are not involved in electoral competition featuring detailed policy discussion. As one participant put it recently at a think tank roundtable in Brussels, citizens of Myanmar do not only judge the five-year term of President Thein Sein, they also judge the last five decades in which the promise of development and peace has not been realised for Myanmar. Therefore the electoral campaigns evolve much more around the questions of continuity and change, and considerable importance is put on the personalities of the potential leaders themselves. Indeed, the NLD’s slogan is “Time for change”.

Led by the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi, the NLD collected 81 per cent of the votes in the non-recognised elections in 1990 and won 43 of the 45 available seats in the 2012 by-elections. There are also indications that the USDP fears losing against the NLD, such as the recent USDP-backed attempt of postponing the elections allegedly due to flooding. Naturally, the military, does not favour a victory of the NLD, who was founded in opposition to the military rule. If the NLD would indeed collect two thirds of votes, it would command a majority despite the fixed 25 per cent of seats for the military.

It is to be recalled that Aung San Suu Kyi, General Secretary of the NLD, was put under house arrest for 15 years by the military and was only released in 2010. She herself is banned from standing for president due to her children holding a foreign nationality. But the fear of Aung San Suu Kyi still looms large as she is by far the most popular politician in the country. She has been reluctant to nominate a Spitzenkandidat for the NLD, which points to the fact that she could act as shadow president if her party wins most votes.

If this is the case, it is likely that she will at least take on the powerful role of speaker of the House of Representatives, the country’s lower house. Perhaps the clearest indicator of the military’s opposition to the NLD was the removal of the USDP’s ambitious candidate Shwe Mann. After Aung San Suu Kyi had called the parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann “an ally” the military stepped in and effectively declared President Thein Sein the USDP’s presidential candidate instead. However, Shwe Mann is politically alive and continuous to hold his influential position of parliamentary speaker – showcasing that the military is acting more carefully than before and is highly aware of the international community watching the elections closely.

But it is not certain that the NLD will win a landslide victory. In stark opposition to her father, Aung San, Aung San Suu Kyi has not spoken out on the situation of the country’s minorities. In addition, she has alienated many minorities by putting up NLD candidates in the minority areas, decreasing chances for the ethnicity-based parties.

Refugees, internally-displaced people and the Rohingya, most of whom will not be able to vote, have also not been addressed during the campaign of the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate, even attracting criticism of the Dalai Lama. However, Myanmar’s extremist Buddhist monks are very influential and speak out against Islam in openly hostile terms. There is not a single Muslim NLD candidate.

Adopting a strategy that ignores the rights of minorities could well be her biggest mistake in this election campaign. Not only does it hurt her credibility as a Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and questions her prior reputation as “Asian Mandela”, it will also make it harder for her to achieve good deals in the political horse-trading that is likely following the elections. She herself says “I have always been a pragmatic politician, […] I have always said I don’t like to be called an icon, because icons do nothing except sit on the wall.”

The Electoral Process

The power of the minorities stands and falls with their ability to form effective inter-ethnic coalitions. One third of Myanmar’s population belongs to one of the over 130 ethnicities. Two-thirds of the about 90 parties running in the elections are based on ethnicity. 207 seats, thus 31 per cent of the joint assembly of parliament, is reserved for representatives from the seven states dominated by ethnic minorities; in addition, there are 29 seats for “national race representatives”. This indicates the potential power of the minorities and why they could be kingmakers for NLD or USDP. It also emphasises why the minorities did not welcome the NLD standing for candidacy in their states and regions.

Bearing with the minority issue, it is important to notice that Myanmar elections follow the first-past-the-post model. Therefore the minority parties’ chances of aggregating enough votes on all federal levels are even smaller.

Furthermore, while citizens vote for the two houses of parliament, the House of Representatives and the House of Nationalities, the president is indirectly elected. This will only happen after the new parliament convenes on 31 January 2016, a significant period of time for political horse-trading.

Both houses elect one presidential candidate, while another candidate is elected by the military representatives. The joint assembly of upper and lower house then elects a president from these three candidates. Current President Thein Sein is very likely to stand for president again, since he has earned himself the trust of the military, as could be seen in the ouster of Shwe Mann. Aung San Suu Kyi, as outlined above, cannot stand for candidacy and will only announce after the elections who will be her candidate. The elected candidate will be president for a term of five years. The two non-elected candidate become vice-presidents.

EU Observers

For the first time since Myanmar’s slow political opening, domestic and international election observers, including the European Union and the US Carter Center, are allowed at the elections. Importantly, many of them arrived way before the election takes place, noting problematic issues like the 500 000 Rohinyga who had their citizen’s card and therefore their right to vote cancelled just in time for the elections. There were also significant problems in compiling the list of voters, which put the burden of checking its accuracy on the voter and last but not least the imperfect advanced voting system. On election day fraud is possible since votes are counted manually. However, this time there will also be party representatives present, as well as the possibility of election observers stopping by. It might well take up to two weeks until the outcome of the election is declared, since votes first need to be aggregated at township, district, state and national level.

Conclusion

In the fragile political time until the new president is announced in 2016, with a far from comprehensive NCA, Myanmar – and its military – will have to stand its true test of peaceful power transition. To ensure that the elections will mark another milestone in Myanmar’s transition to a more open and democratic society, external actors like the EU need to continually engage the country also after the elections.

King Mohammed VI Upcoming Visit To India: Opportunity To Boost Bilateral Trade – OpEd

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The upcoming visit by King Mohammed VI to India to attend the third India-Africa Forum Summit will certainly impart fresh momentum to ties between India and Morocco. The high-profile visit of the Moroccan monarch to India is interpreted by Moroccan media as an acknowledgement that a new thrust on promoting investments is required augurs well for the evolution of a substantial, multifaceted relationship.

India and Morocco enjoy warm and friendly relations, reflecting the centuries old economic and socio-cultural ties. Relations between India and Morocco go back to the 14th century when the famous traveler and writer from Tangier, Ibn Batuta travelled to India. In modern history, India was active in the UN supporting the Moroccan freedom movement and recognized Morocco on June 20, 1956 when it became independent of the protectorate arrangements with France. Diplomatic Missions were established in 1957.

India-Morocco partnership has improved tremendously during recent years. The economic complementarities are helping this relationship to grow stronger. India is one of the major markets for Moroccan phosphate and its derivatives. Other main items of export to India are metallic ores and metal scrap, semi-finished products and inorganic chemicals. The main items of India’s exports to Morocco are cotton yarn, synthetic fiber, transport equipment, pharmaceuticals, agricultural implements, chemicals, spices and manufactured metals.

The quantum of bilateral trade, which was US$ 1.63 billion in 2010, reached US$ 2.04 billion in 2011 (including India’s exports to Morocco at US$ 587.2 million and India’s imports from Morocco at US$1.45 billion). The trade turnover between the two countries stood at US$1.73 billion in 2012 (including India’s exports to Morocco at US$ 517.7 million and imports at US$1,212 million). As per provisional figures, in 2013, trade between the two countries stood at US$1.41 billion i.e. India’s exports to Morocco in 2013 stood at US$ 615 million while imports were valued at US$796 million. The slight decline in trade in last two years (2012 and 2013) could be attributed to factors which are affecting Moroccan economy’s growth i.e. the global economic meltdown, the current weak state of the European economy, regional turmoil, comparatively lesser demand from India of phosphoric acid and rock phosphate due to higher pricing by Morocco, and also due to the huge trade growth in the base year. Trade volumes are expected to pick up in the coming years.

The balance of trade has been in favour of Morocco because of imports of phosphoric acid and rock phosphate by India.

An India-Morocco joint venture in fertilizer sector in Morocco, called IMACID, was set up in November 1999. At present, the JV is producing around 430,000 MT per annum of phosphoric acid, nearly all of which is imported by India. The Moroccan phosphate company, OCP, has invested in Paradip Phosphates Ltd. in India.

Moreover, several Indian companies have established collaborations with Moroccan companies and are working in the Kingdom in diverse sectors. TATA Motors has a plant in Casablanca for manufacturing bus bodies. Ranbaxy has set up its own manufacturing plant for production of medicines in Casablanca. PepsiCo India has acquired the beverage maker’s entire franchise bottling operations in Morocco. Indian industry and business associations CII, FICCI and ASSOCHAM have institutional arrangements with Moroccan industry and business associations. A number of trade delegations from various industry and export promotion councils of India, such as ASSOCHAM, CAPEXIL, TEXPROCIL and EEPC have been visiting Morocco periodically. During these visits, a number of trade promotion activities such as expositions, buyer-seller meets, etc., are organized.

There is lot of interest in Morocco in Indian art and culture, especially Hindi cinema. The Marrakesh International Film Festivals regularly screen Hindi movies and invite Indian actors. Indian musicians participate in the Fez Festival of World Sacred Music on a regular basis.

The present level of cooperation between India and Morocco is beyond the actual potential. There is a huge scope for improvement in core sectors including economic and trade ties, defence and security ties, etc. Both the nations need to work hard if they are to strengthen the present level of ties, which is not comprehensive in nature as of now, in order to impart strategic character. This partnership will enable both the countries to harness the vast potential of bilateral relations, drawing upon complementarities and each other’s intrinsic strengths, and work together to address regional and global challenges. In the long run, India will continue to remain an important partner for Morocco and vice versa.

Undoubtedly, this upcoming royal visit to New Delhi will reinforce the strategic dialogue and will benefit the economy of both countries. Many observers are looking forward to the outcome of this royal visit and the expected remarks that King Mohammed VI will deliver during the India Africa Forum Summit. So concretely speaking what are the actions and initiatives that both countries will take in an effort to elaborate a new economic roadmap that will reinforce a win win partnership between India and Africa.

Malaysia In Political Stalemate – Analysis

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Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib is facing accusations of fraud with the 1MDB fiasco, and the murder of Mongolian model Altantuya Shaaribuu, while the economy is going into a ‘nosedive’.

After six and a half years in office, Premier Najib presides over a nation with contracting growth, rising inflation, growing unemployment, a Ringgit at a 20 year low against the US Dollar, significant capital flight, a massive debt problem, disappearing sources of income, and low consumer confidence.

Although some of these problems are the result of global factors such as declining oil and gas prices, low commodity prices, and sluggish growth of major trading partners, Malaysia’s problems also greatly exist today as the result of policy failures. Extremist policies have also led to social and ethnic tensions within the country. In addition, the depreciation of the Ringgit and introduction of the GST have put undue hardships on the people.

Malaysia is going through a very intense period of political infighting at the highest echelons of power within the dominant party within the Barisan Nasional (BN), UMNO. Premier Najib recently sacked his Deputy Muhyiddin Yassin, and other ministers and officials in desperation to maintain his grip on power, while the former PM Dr. Mahathir is leading a vanguard of senior UMNO stalwarts to remove Najib from office.

Within corporate Malaysia, there is now a deep realization about how fast Malaysia is falling behind the rest of the world. Many believe that the Prime Minister has not grappled with the real problems facing the nation. This thinking according to sources goes right to the board rooms of companies like Sime Darby and Petronas, some of the premier financial institutions of the land, as well as a number of Royal Households.

However there is a large split in thinking about how to solve the problem, as the Mahathir forces are still viewed with great suspicion by many sections of royalty. Thus any possibility of him being an immediate interim prime minister would never be considered. There is also a general distain for the weak and incompetent opposition in the country, which instead of showing leadership has allowed infighting to surface publicly and dissolve the Pakatan Rakyat.

Consequently, there is no planned takeover of power, coup, of method to remove Najib from office in existence. The prevailing view is one of being stunned and a feeling of impotence, as Premier Najib has managed to centralize most power in the country around the Prime Minister’s position.

The immediate task at hand for Premier Najib was to deliver a national budget. There has been massive revenue shrinkage due to falling oil revenue and a corresponding reduction of dividends paid by Petronas to government consolidated revenue. The unpopular GST will not make up the projected short falls over the coming years, which will increase the budget deficit, if government spending is not drastically reduced. This would be politically unpalatable, particularly at a time when Najib is so unpopular. Najib also has to contend with growing unemployment and will be pressured to maintain infrastructure spending, so lucrative contracts can continue to be given out to his supporters.

The flip side for Najib is that with the falling Ringgit, and rising debt, ratings agencies will be looking for fiscal responsibility in the budget. A fiscally irresponsible budget could increase capital flight which is already a major problem for Malaysia’s balance of payments.

Najib has tried to do all this. He has chosen the path to spur the economy through nine infrastructure projects, of which a high proportion are in rural areas, Sabah and Sarawak. In addition, a lot of ‘sweeteners’ have been added into the budget, which are no doubt aimed at shoring up his popular base. From this point of view, it could be construed as an election budget, giving Najib the option to call a snap election, if necessary. At the same time a number of reforms for the civil service have been announced as well as a projection of a lower budget deficit of 3.2% of GDP, down from 6.7% the year before, in an attempt to win support of ratings agencies.

It’s a budget that BN members of Parliament would find it difficult to vote against, due to the large numbers of specific programs benefitting their individual electorates.

The weak opposition has become Premier Najib’s great strength. PAS President Aman Hadi’s push for HUDUD laws eventually broke up the opposition alliance, Pakatan Rakyat. In addition Hadi’s indecisiveness on whether PAS would support any no confidence motion against Najib in parliament this week was seen by many in the opposition as treacherous.

The handling of the no confidence motion showed complete incompetence. The fact that DAP MP Hee Loy Sia filed a motion of no confidence before PKR leader Wan Azizah, has led to questions in the local media about whether the new alliance Pakatan Harapan actually wants to remove Najib from office. The opposition seemed to be more interested in who would make the motion of no confidence, rather than actually making this symbolic move in parliament, which would have failed anyway, due to lack of numbers of support the motion.

Others felt that the whole matter of a no confidence motion was just a waste of time, as there is no chance of and mass defection of Barisan MPs. UMNO backbenchers have shown no sign of wavering, as have Sabah and Sarawak MPs, along with Gerakan and MCA members.

There is also worry about the opposition’s policy proposals to solve the financial crisis. The opposition proposal to put 1MDB into administration in Wan Azizah’s budget speech would only lead to an asset fire sale. In addition, blocking TNB from taking over 1MDB assets is just sabotaging any initiatives to reduce debt.

There is no end game in sight.

It is rumoured that Najib’s mother and at least one brother has asked him to make a deal with Dr. Mahathir on safe passage out of Malaysia and immunity from prosecution. However, upon Najib’s wife, Rosnah’s insistence, he is taking up the fight to survive with a new and ruthless political secretary in charge. Such a deal anyhow would provide Najib with no guarantee, as Dr. Mahathir has no legal or political standing to make such a deal.

No doubt, Najib will pass through this session of parliament with the partisan speaker Pandikar Amin Mulia, and the UMNO AGM in December. In theory Najib can continue right up to 2018 as party president and prime minister. However, the pressure of a quickly deteriorating economy and a poor budget reception could change that timing, particularly is any other unforeseen event arises over the next few months.

The advantage to Najib is the extremely poorly coordinated opposition that has shown itself to be in disarray with the PAS/Parti Amanah Negara (PAN) split. Ironically, Dr. Mahathir looks and appears to be the only effective opposition leader in Malaysia today. Yet the Mahathir forces themselves are also impotent (something he admitted himself) against the Najib forces which control the powerful PM’s office, ministers, UMNO, and police.

Overall, Mahathir has been disappointing in his handling of Najib, which has only in reality showed up his impotence in standing up to his old protégé. He has failed to show the strength he once had as a leader and politician.

Muhyiddin and Tunku Razaleigh have primarily been on the side-lines, unwilling to take any lead.

Najib’s best action would be to go for an immediate snap election after the budget and catch the opposition ‘off guard’, and weaken them further. By placing his people in winnable seats, Najib could further his strength within UMNO and government, and even weaken the Mahathir forces mortally.

The recent poll stating the unpopularity of UMNO and its leader with the Malay electorate was urban biased, thus such a result would be expected. The general election is won or lost in the heartland, not the urban areas, so UMNO can still win.

However, there would be very little incentive to do this as parliament still has two years to run until an election is needed. Nevertheless, it could be tempting to wipe out PKR, PAS, and Harapan Baru all at once, as PAS is likely to stand candidates against PKR and DAP leading to three-cornered contests. The opposition also has a major credibility gap with the Malaysian public.

A new parliament after an election would most probably be dominated by UMNO and DAP, which is set to make massive gains.

Najib’s best and only option open to him at the moment is to stay in power to protect himself, and the interests of his family’s businesses, controlled by his brothers Nazir, Ahmad Johari, Mohamed Nizam, and Mohamed Nazin Razak.

These business interests include a number of high profile corporate assets, entangled with a number of close associates including Tan Kay Hock, Shahril Shamsuddin, Mohamed Azman Yahya, Rohana Mahmood, Azman Mokhtar, Mohd. Nadzmi Mohd. Salleh, and others, who could stand to lose many of their assets should Najib no longer be prime minister.

Najib seems very hesitant to go the election track and may rely on police repression to maintain his grip on power for the time being. Najib’s new DPM Zaid is like a ‘pitball’ and his new political secretary Muhd Khairun Aseh Che Mat has shown himself to be a ruthless political operator. Attacks on dissenters and the arrests of those trying to expose Najib, like Khairuddin and Matthius Chang under the anti-terror SOSMA laws, shows what Malaysia may be install for in the near future.

This would leave the leadership crisis in stalemate, where Najib can choose his own time to step down, while the economy continues to deteriorate into the foreseeable future.

To this point in time, primarily due to the lack of incentive to unite, Najib’s detractors are powerless to make any decisive constitutional moves against him.
No one is able to convince to UMNO/BN politicians, except for the Najib forces, who are keeping a tight rein on them. So any move by former senior UMNO leaders to push for an interim government through the parliament and constitution is not a possibility.

Najib, who was once Dr. Mahathir’s protégé has proven himself to be more skilful and cunning than the master.

Yet the biggest tragedy for Malaysia is that the Najib regime has no vision for Malaysia, and thus the longer he stays, the more damage that will be done.
There is also little hope in any post-Najib era as well. The opposition is only coming out with ad hoc policy measures, which may even make worse some of the problems, and the Mahathir forces are totally silent about what they would do.

Nigeria: Dozens Killed In Suicide Bomb Attack In Mosque

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Dozens were killed in a suicide bomb attack this morning against a mosque in Maiduguri, in north-east Nigeria, during early morning Friday prayers, reports the online Daily Trust. The mosque is situated in the Jidari Polo area, in the heart of the capital of Borno State. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) provided a different … Continue reading Nigeria: Dozens Killed In Suicide Bomb Attack In Mosque

Massive Hurricane Makes Landfall In Mexico

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Hurricane Patricia, predicted to be one of the most dangerous storms on record, has begun making landfall in Mexico’s western state of Jalisco, according to the country’s National Meteorological Service, and could level towns and villages across the region.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Patricia officially made landfall at 6:15 pm, CDT, as a Category 5 with winds of 165 mph. It came ashore near Cuixmala, Mexico.

Residents were warned to prepare for 200-mph — which later slowed to 190-mph — winds as the storm made its way toward Mexico’s Pacific coast. Robert Ramirez de la Parra, director of CONAGUA, the Mexican agency that includes the national weather service, said those wind speeds could make “Patricia the most dangerous storm in history.”

Officials are also concerned over flash floods. With rainfall estimates between 8 and 12 inches – with some areas expected to receive as much 20 inches – the US National Hurricane Center has issued a warning to the nearly 7 million residents living near the coast.

Some experts also predicted that the storm could cause 40-foot waves.

“Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall,” the agency said in a statement.

The Mexican government declared a state of emergency and acted quickly to install preventive measures, especially in the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero, and Nayarit. Over 1,780 shelters have been set up, with 50,000 aid workers ready to assist, and 4,000 officers of the Mexican navy were dispatched.

Experts were also alarmed by how quickly Patricia became a Category 5 storm. It rose from tropical storm in a 24-hour period.

The Pacific coast is also dotted with a number of beach resorts. While many vacationers evacuated ahead of landfall, some have decided to wait it out.

“It’s almost as if it’s literally ‘the calm before the storm,'” Laura Diane Rebholz, an Arizona resident vacationing in Puerto Vallarta, told NBC News. “It’s very much business as usual around the resort with staff seemingly unfazed by the hurricane.”

US Defense Chief Says Islamic State Prison Raid Saved Lives, Bagged Intelligence Info

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By Terri Moon Cronk

Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Friday he made the decision that U.S. Special Forces would assist Iraqi peshmerga partners in yesterday’s raid on an Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant prison in Iraq to rescue 70 hostages after intelligence indicated a mass execution was imminent.

By having U.S. forces accompanying Iraqi peshmerga fighters and providing airlift support for the hostages, lives were saved and a “significant cache of intelligence was collected,” the defense secretary told Pentagon reporters.

Carter expressed his condolences to the family of U.S. Army Master Sgt. Joshua Wheeler, who died from his wounds when ISIL forces attacked U.S. and peshmerga fighters.

The secretary emphasized that since he became defense secretary early this year, he has ensured the Defense Department would remain “laser-focused on the execution of our counter-ISIL strategy.”

Defeating ISIL

Delivering the lasting defeat to ISIL “will require us to learn, evolve and adapt over the course of a determined campaign to carry out this strategy,” he said.

The rescued hostages had “expected to be executed that day” by their ISIL captors, Carter said.

He added, “Not only did our support help prevent another mass killing, we enabled those partners of ours to deliver ISIL a clear defeat, and prevented them from broadcasting a horrific massacre to the world.”

U.S. forces were going to accompany peshmerga fighters but not enter the prison compound until the ISIL attack ensued, Carter said.

Amid the initial gunfire, “[Wheeler] did what I’m very proud Americans do in that situation,” the secretary said. “He ran to the sound of the guns and he stood up, and all the indications are it was his actions and one of his teammate’s that protected those who were involved in breaching the compound and made the mission successful.”

Carter said he is “immensely proud” of Wheeler’s actions.

Raids Provide Information

The secretary told reporters he expects the U.S. military would conduct more raids in the future.

“One of the reasons [for raids] is you learn a great deal, you collect documentation, [and] various electronic equipment … on top of which we now have 70 individuals who spent a lot of time [in the prison where the rescue occurred],” he said.

“The sum of all this will be some valuable intelligence… saving the lives that were about to be brutally sacrificed … and supporting our peshmerga partners, who have been wonderful fighters,” Carter said of the operation.

And while conducting raids in the future “doesn’t represent us assuming a combat role,” Carter emphasized, “It represents a continuation of our advise and assist mission … And this is an example of a case where we could do something we alone had the capability to do, and I’m absolutely prepared to do that.”

Adjusting Approach to ISIL in Syria

Turning to the fight to defeat ISIL in Syria, the secretary said the challenges of developing capable and motivated forces in Syria have been “painfully clear.”

But with such efforts as coalition aircraft recently striking a key ISIL oil enterprise, Carter emphasized the United States is “ramping up our assault on this critical pillar of ISIL’s financial infrastructure.”

U.S. and coalition forces will work to disrupt ISIL’s distribution of oil in a lucrative marketplace, he said, adding that one of ISIL’s “customers” is the Assad regime.

“We will continue to work on all of the so-called nine lines of effort of the counter-ISIL campaign, including counter-finance, counter-messaging and interdicting foreign fighters,” Carter said.

Such approaches in Syria adjust the focus to equip existing groups, rather than train new recruits, “although we will continue to be open to new approaches,” he said.

U.S. and coalition forces are strengthening their partnerships with moderate Syrian forces that have fought fiercely in recent months and hope to advance the gains they’ve made with coalition help, he added.

“The additional support I’ve mentioned today does not represent a change in our strategy,” the secretary said of countering ISIL. “But it does represent a change in our approach to achieving it. I’m determined that we’ll continue to adapt to get results.”


US Elections: Decoding The Role Of Indian Diaspora – Analysis

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By Uma Purushothaman*

As the US election campaign gathers steam, India is watching it with great interest not only because of the importance of the India-US relationship, but also because of the sizeable Indian Diaspora in the US.

The Indian American Diaspora has undoubtedly traversed a long distance from the pioneering, uneducated and low-skilled Punjabi farmers of the late 19th and early 20th century to what is now a highly skilled over three million-strong community. The Indian American population is the second-largest immigrant group in the country after Mexicans. The US is also home to the second largest Indian Diaspora globally. Indian Americans are the wealthiest (with household incomes almost double of the American average), most educated and law-abiding ethnic community in the US, a “model minority”. Though it constitutes less than one percent of the total American population, it accounts for about ten percent of all doctors and more than five percent of scientists, engineers and IT professionals in the country.

Indian Americans are also a relatively young population. The community is evenly distributed across the country though there are more Indians in places like New York, New Jersey, Texas, California, and Chicago. The community is also highly organised. It is important to remember that most of the community is deeply engaged with India. A good proportion makes regular visits to India and many send remittances to India. In fact, the US is the second largest source of remittances to India behind West Asia.

While their ancestors were busier in building livelihoods and rarely showed inclination in getting involved in politics, today’s Diaspora is playing an increasingly pivotal role in American politics, from community organisers to local politics, state politics to politics of Capitol Hill. The number of Indian Americans in high political offices has been steadily increasing, whether it is in President Obama’s administration or in administrations across the country, including governorships. Indian Americans have established several advocacy organisations and political action committees on a wide range of issues of importance to India. For instance, the US-India Political Affairs Committee and the Indian American Forum for Political Education have done seminal work in advocating India’s cause. India has bipartisan caucuses in both houses of Congress-the Senate India Caucus and the Congressional Caucus on India and Indian Americans. The community’s political influence has grown over the years and it has played a key role in lobbying for Indian causes on Capitol Hill. In recent years, Indians have demonstrated their increasing political influence with the election of Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

By and large, Indian Americans, like most minorities in the US have traditionally voted for the Democrats. But there are influential Indian American Republicans as well. The most notable is of course Louisiana Governor, Republican Bobby Jindal, the first Indian American contender for a party’s presidential nomination. But Jindal has slipped out of the top ten contenders and may be forced to suspend his campaign soon.

Another Indian American in these elections is Mary Thomas who is running to become the Republican nominee for Congress from Florida. In fact, some reports suggest that as Indian Americans have become wealthier, they are becoming more conservative and are leaning towards the Republican Party. This is evident from the fact that their financial contribution to the Republican Party has been increasing recently. Parties are also beginning to appeal to Indian Americans. For instance, George W Bush successfully reached out to the community in the 2004 elections, talking to community leaders and inviting them to fundraising dinners.

The Indian government woke up to the emergence of its Diaspora as an influential political force much before Prime Minister Narendra Modi took over. A High Level Committee on Indian Diaspora said in 2001 that “for the first time, India has a constituency in the US with real status and influence…an invaluable asset in strengthening India’s relationship with the world’s only superpower… They have effectively mobilized on issues ranging from the nuclear tests in 1998 to Kargil, played a crucial role in generating a favourable climate of opinion in Congress and defeating anti-India legislation there, and lobbied effectively on other issues of concern to the Indian community”. But it is a fact that Modi’s emphasis on the Indian Diaspora and his advice to them to become an extension of India’s foreign policy has had deep resonance with the community. It feels a deeper sense of being connected to India today and is proud of the country as is evident from the enthusiasm of the thousands who thronged to listen to the Prime Minister during his public speeches last year and this year.

While India certainly recognises the importance of the Diaspora in contributing to stronger ties with the US, interestingly, so does the US. In January this year, President Obama announced a new public private partnership to encourage Indian Americans to directly invest in India, thus enhancing economic relations between the two countries.

Given the small size of their population, the Indian American community will not be a kingmaker in the American elections. However, their influence is disproportionate to the size of the population as members of the community have become major financial contributors to both parties.

Despite the US economy doing slightly better than during the last elections, outsourcing will be an issue during the elections. Another issue of interest for India is immigration because of the link to H1B visas. What different candidates say on these issues will be closely followed by Indian businesses and high skilled workers. For instance, surprise Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s proposal to make H1B visas more difficult to acquire has received enough bad press in India. On the other hand, another Republican presidential contender, Marco Rubio, wants to increase the number of H1B visas. Interestingly, on foreign policy, the same Donald Trump has nice words for India, saying the US has to engage closely with India as it is the only country which can “check” Pakistan, the world’s “most dangerous country”. The leading Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, is a known Indophile who sees India as a critical part of US grand strategy.

While India watches the elections with interest, whether it is a Republican or a Democrat who comes to power, US-India ties are set to improve because of bipartisan consensus in the US that the relationship has to grow stronger in view of shared concerns and interests in the Indo Pacific. There has long been a myth among the Indian strategic community that Republican Presidents have been better for India. But it is just that—a myth. Remember, it was the Republican Richard Nixon who led the rapprochement with China and it was the Democrat John F Kennedy who helped India during the Sino-Indian conflict.

*The writer is a Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Courtesy: The Diplomatist

Time For Moderate Muslims To Bite The Bullet – OpEd

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It is time moderate Islam recognized who its real enemies are, where its real interests lie, and take action accordingly.

While Islamic State (IS) and the Islamic Republic of Iran – the powers that rival each other in seeking religious and political domination in the Middle East and beyond – have been forging ahead, intent on imposing their own versions of extremist Islam on a reluctant world, moderate Arab and other Muslim states have equivocated. Other considerations have been given priority over confronting them.

For instance Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, procrastinated for a long time before attacking IS in Syria, fearing to boost Kurdish forces which were successfully combatting the extremist organization. It was only when IS itself mounted terrorist attacks within Turkey that Erdogan took action – although, even now, he seems to be striking IS and Kurdish forces indiscriminately, in a morally ambiguous strategy dictated by the imperatives of the forthcoming elections in Turkey.

In Yemen it took an Iranian-backed takeover of the capital, Sana’a, and the imminent likelihood of a takeover of the government itself, to move Saudi Arabia to take action. The growing involvement of IS-affiliated Yemeni extremists, and a power struggle between them and the terrorist group “al-Qaeda in Yemen” combined to produce a state in meltdown. A contributory factor leading to Saudi action was perhaps the bombs that exploded outside two mosques in Sana’a after Friday prayers on March 20. Nearly 140 people were killed and 350 wounded, while shortly afterwards responsibility for the outrage was claimed by the group “Islamic State in Yemen”.

Six days later, on March 26, taking the world by surprise, Saudi Arabia began airstrikes against the Iranian-backed Houthis, with the intention of restoring the legitimate government in Yemen. Within only a few days Saudi had welded together a coalition of Arab states in support of the assault, including Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.

By the last days of March the Houthi advance had been halted. During the summer Saudi and coalition forces drove the rebels out of Aden, enabling the Yemeni prime minister, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, to return from exile on September 16. And now the Houthis – together with Yemen’s previous president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been supporting them – have agreed to a seven-point plan, brokered by the UN, which includes a ceasefire and the return of the government to Sana’a. Saleh told the Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen TV station on October 12 that he was ready to quit his position as head of the country’s largest party, the General People’s Congress (GPC), to facilitate an end to the fighting that has killed more than 5,000 people.

Saudi Arabia’s resolute action is a template for how moderate Muslim nations can, and should, face up to Islamist extremists elsewhere in the Middle East – IS in particular, but Iran too, should its overweening ambition, especially if eventually backed by nuclear weaponry, ever get out of hand. Iran has been supporting terrorist attempts to undermine Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states for decades. Armed with nuclear weapons, Iranian-supported jihadists would constitute a threat that could not be ignored. A nuclear arms race is the last thing the Middle East needs, but nuclear deterrence may eventually be the best road to security for moderate Islam, and an effective counter also if Russia were tempted to support Iranian adventurism.

Just like Iran, IS has an inherent strategic need to keep expanding its influence. The only way to defeat it is to halt it in its tracks, crush it militarily, and chase it out of its strongholds in Syria and Iraq, where it has overrun, and now controls, vast swathes of territory. The task is no mean one, and requires exactly the kind of united front that has challenged, and is overcoming, the Iranian-backed rebellion in Yemen. Russia’s pro-Iranian involvement in Syria is a hazard, but not insurmountable.

Declaring himself the caliph of the entire Muslim world, the leader of IS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, demands the allegiance of all Muslims in his self-appointed task of overturning existing states and substituting the rule of IS. To perpetuate its image of invincibility, IS’s influence simply has to continue growing. To stand still is to decline.

At first glance, al-Baghdadi has succeeded beyond all measure. By the middle of 2015 no less than 35 jihadist groups in some 14 countries, including Pakistan and Nigeria, had pledged allegiance to IS. As a symbol of its alleged authority, it also announced the establishment of wilayat (governorates) in a number of these countries.

Barak Mendelsohn, Professor of Political Science at Haverford College and a Research Fellow at Harvard, has analysed IS’s apparent growth and believes that, notwithstanding the fanfare surrounding these announcements, in reality IS’s presence and power outside Iraq and Syria is very limited. The stronger groups who joined IS, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis in Sinai and Boko Haram in Nigeria, are in decline, and where Boko Haram is concerned, it is unclear to what extent it accepts al-Baghdadi’s authority.

Mendelsohn maintains that IS’s early victories, astonishing as they were, reflected the poor state and morale of its opponents in the Iraqi army, and the lack of advanced armament by the Syrian rebels, more than the prowess of its own forces. Moreover, when it pursued the genocide of the Yazidis, threatened Irbil, the capital of the Kurdish autonomous region, and beheaded American hostages, it forced the United States to intervene.

By doing so, it may have initiated the start of its own decline, for ineffective as the US airstrike policy may have been, it opened the way for Russia’s intervention on behalf of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad. Russia’s military might may be mainly focused on Assad’s domestic Syrian opponents, but IS is also in its sights.

The question remains – why has the moderate Muslim world left so much of the running to non-Muslims? Russia indeed faces the risk of homeland terrorism from IS, and the West from both IS and Iran, but the Muslim states of the Middle East and beyond face even more direct religious and political threats, namely their own subversion and overthrow.

Terrorism, extremism, and power-crazed ambitions to conquer the world must be confronted. It is time for the moderate Muslim world to commit wholeheartedly to the battle.

India-Africa Summit: Will It Give A New Thrust To Age-Old Ties? – Analysis

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By Dr. Simona Vittorini*

New Delhi is in the midst of intensive diplomatic activity in preparation for the Third India Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) that will take place October 26-29.

It was under the aegis of the Congress-led UPA government that the first and second IAFS were held in 2008 and 2011. Arriving slightly late on the scene after Japan, the EU, and China had already held numerous African summits, India’s the first and second IAFS were rather modest affairs, with limited outreach. They were held adopting the so-callled Banjul Formula recommended by the African Union, according to which only 14-15 African states’ representatives were invited.

Yet, the IAFS signalled a radical transformation of India-Africa relations by elevating them to summit level and by establishing an institutional platform for engagement and cooperation at bilateral, regional and continental level.

Nevertheless, there have been concerns in the past few years that Africa has slipped quietly off the Indian radar. Last year, the Third IAFS was postponed to an unspecified date in 2015 due to the Ebola crisis. Equally the 11th edition of the CII India-Africa Conclave was also postponed. This is significant since it is there that deals worth of millions are signed between Indian government and businesses and their African counterparts. To The Economist this was a clumsy decision on the part of New Delhi for, whilst in this period, India-Africa bilateral trade did not grow as predicted, China-Africa bilateral trade soared to US $210bn making China Africa’s largest trading partner.

Narendra Modi’s packed foreign travelling agenda seemed to confirm these concerns. Since becoming Prime Minister in 2014, Modi has travelled extensively, but beside his Indian Ocean-nation visits (Mauritius and Seychelles) in the spring of this year, he has yet to visit an African country. In fact, Modi has been more preoccupied with engaging with the world’s powerful nations than with other fellow-developing countries.

It is in this context, therefore, that this Third IAFS holds much promise.

Some view this larger India-Africa summit just as a showpiece of diplomatic activity. In line with Modi’s penchant for the spectacular, this is going to be remembered as the largest diplomatic gathering in India since the Non-Alignment Summit in 1983. Diplomatic spectacles aside, it will be wrong to dismiss it as another example of Modi’s modus operandum. There’s ground to believe that the Third IAFS may be the occasion to chart a new road for India-Africa relations.

Not only this is the first India-Africa summit to be held under Modi, but this is also the most important public occasion in which India’s Prime Minister will engage with a large number Southern countries. Even though we cannot talk yet of a Modi doctrine, Narendra Modi has certainly brought a number of changes to India’s foreign policy. His extensive trips abroad have signalled a dynamism and willingness to assume world leadership – something that has been welcomed by those who complained about India’s lack of direction in its foreign engagements.

There is also a perceptible shift in the ways in which India’s economic agenda is being pursued through foreign engagements with the promotion of the ‘Make in India’ campaign. In it is in this light that this much-awaited Third IAFS has the potential to reinvigorate the relations between Africa and the subcontinent. Indeed, many observers and officials have lamented of the lack of direction and co-ordination in India-Africa engagements. This lack of foresight has damaged some Indian interests in the African continent. Modi’s proactive foreign policy and his self-projection as a decisive leader promises to deliver in these regards.

Second, by extending invitations to all African leaders rather than revert to the Banjul Formula signals a recognition of Africa’s diversity and Delhi’s desire to strengthen relations with all African countries individually as well as with the continent and its various regional institutions. Wanting to engage with all African countries also indicates that India has finally realised that it has a lot of catching up to do and it is willing to throw itself into the fray with more determination.

Lastly, this much larger and spectacular IAFS is a not-so-subtle message to China, whose FOCAC (Forum on China-Africa Cooperation) will take place in South Africa in December. By holding the IAFS just three weeks ahead of the China-Africa summit, New Delhi is hoping to out-smart and out-do China. FOCAC has been recently upgraded to a summit.

But there is another reason why the Third IAFS is expected to transform India-Africa relations. The ideological and strategic drivers at the heart of New Delhi’s relationship with the African continent have very much been couched in a Nehruvian discourse of southern solidarity for the creation of a more equitable and just world. Whilst this rhetoric has often been seen largely as a mask to conceal India’s real economic and strategic intentions in Africa, commitments to Third Worldism and alternative ideas of sovereignty and economic development are still relevant in India’s engagements with the developing world, more than realist accounts would want us to believe. Yet, this may be bound to change.

That Modi is not a Nehru fan is no secret. Since being elected, Modi has ostensibly tried to distance himself from anything Nehruvian. As the historian Sunil Khilnani suggests, if the arrival of Modi has brought with it a rewriting of the history of India, Nehru will not be a leading chapter any more. Indeed, Modi has refrained from using terms dear to Nehruvism in describing India’s relations with the South. Whilst abroad, he has instead often talked of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (a old Sanskrit saying that means that the world is one family) – a concept that many other Indian leaders had used before him – and, in describing India-Africa linkages, so far Modi has preferred to highlight Gandhi’s role in cementing India-Africa relations rather than revert back to the Nehruvian discourse of Southern solidarity.

It is possible that Modi’s calculated neglect of South-South rhetoric (so prominent in previous official India-Africa declarations) is nothing more that a simple distaste for the Nehruvian. However these rhetorical changes may be more substantial, indicating the diminishing importance of the developing world to India’s economic and strategic future. Yet, Africa is a key source of energy and natural resources for India. It is also an important strategic and trading partner that can play a decisive role in Modi’s development goals, his ‘Make in India’ campaign, not to speak of New Delhi’s ambitions to reform global governance institutions.

New Delhi can ill afford to neglect Africa. Modi has the political capital to undertake bold foreign policy initiatives. The upcoming IAFS may be the occasion for Modi to reveal his vision for India-Africa relations and to give new thrust to this age-old partnership.

*Dr. Simona Vittorini is a Senior Teaching Fellow in the Department of Politics and International Studies, SOAS, University of London. She can be contacted at sv4@soas.ac.uk

Pelosi Exploits The Pope – OpEd

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Following Pope Francis’ visit to the United States, it was predictable that politicians on both sides of the aisle would invoke his words when they could plausibly be interpreted as favoring or opposing certain policies. To cite the pope when advocating policies to which he would be unequivocally morally opposed, however—like Planned Parenthood’s unconscionable marketing of body parts of aborted babies—is nothing less than obscene. Yet that is what House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi did Thursday afternoon as she argued against efforts to defund Planned Parenthood for engaging in that inhuman practice.

“They (House Republicans) will of course be wanting to defund Planned Parenthood, destroy the Affordable Care Act, dismantle newfound health security for millions of Americans,” Pelosi told a Thursday afternoon press briefing. “It doesn’t have to be this way. Instead, we could be working together recognizing a Republican Congress, a Democratic President, the ability for Democrats to use their leverage legislatively to have compromise for the good of the American people. That’s what Pope Francis told us to do.”

Really? Quite the contrary. Speaking at the United Nations on September 25—the day after his address to Congress—the pope forcefully called for “putting an end as quickly as possible” to such “baneful” practices as “the marketing of human organs and tissues.” He called for “respect for the sacredness of every human life” including “the unborn.”

That, of course, is basic and unchanging Catholic moral teaching. Maybe Rep. Pelosi, who has described herself as an “ardent, practicing Catholic,” still doesn’t get that. She needs to pick up that copy of Catholicism for Dummies that we sent her back in 2008, when she demonstrated her ignorance of Catholic Church teaching on abortion.

Hamas In South Africa: Opening A New Discourse? – OpEd

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By Shafiq Morton*

Twenty-four hours after President Jacob Zuma’s historic meeting with Hamas leader, Khalid Mesha’al, to cement formal relations, the people of Cape Town were addressed by Mesha’al at the Dar ul-Islam school campus on Wednesday (21 October).

The rally was attended by David Mahlobo, State Security Minister, Zola Skewiya (former Minister of Social Development), Marius Fransman, ANC head in the Western Cape, and officials from the Cape Town-based Muslim Judicial Council.

With the African National Congress traditionally enjoying warm relations with the PLO during its apartheid exile and its post- apartheid rule, the move to recognize Hamas has been seen as a significant policy move by South Africa’s governing party.

ANC’s Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe said, “we are starting a relationship with Hamas…we are happy today we are together, we are formally formalizing our relationship. We’ll exchange delegations, we’ll share experiences and we’ll talk to each other regularly.”

The visit has been condemned by the South African Zionist Federation, which has accused Hamas of being opposed to the principles of the ANC, as embodied in the 1955 Freedom Charter. The federation’s statement suggested that Hamas wished to destroy Israel and sought “to establish an Islamist dictatorship in its place.”

The ANC – which adopted a directive to identify with the Palestinian struggle in 2012 when it declared its full support for the BDS campaign reaffirmed its commitment to Palestine at its recent National General Council meeting this month.

The Hamas visit comes after behind-the-scenes lobbying by community figures and a diplomatic visit to Gaza by then deputy Foreign Minister, Ebrahim Ebrahim, in 2010. Ebrahim – a former anti-apartheid struggle stalwart – met with Hamas minister, Mahmud al-Zahar, in Gaza.

Political observers feel that the ANC, as a formerly banned movement deemed terrorist in its day by the US and the UK, is uniquely placed to share its negotiating skills on the art of getting the best out of a powerful and intransigent foe. As a formerly armed resistance movement, it is said that the ANC would also be able to contribute to the Mid-East imbroglio with substance.

The ANC did host the Palestinian Authority with full state honors in Pretoria late last year where there is an accredited PA ambassador. But sentiment in South Africa has turned to the view that the idea of a two-state solution needs to be revisited. Israel’s creating of facts on the ground through occupation (deemed illegal by the UN) and constructing the apartheid wall (also deemed illegal) has made Oslo unworkable.

Most South Africans, not unfamiliar with apartheid-style territorial fragmentation as in the West Bank, can only see a “Bantustan” landscape and permanent disenfranchisement arising out of the two-state solution.

It is felt that the two-state solution would simply entrench the old status quo of Israeli control of Palestinians, and would leave the West Bank divided into at least twenty cantons and multiple border posts. In other words, Palestinian freedom of movement and economic activity would be forever be policed by Israel in an unequal, if not militarily dominated, relationship.

It is in this light that it is believed the Hamas visit to South Africa is an historic occasion, an occasion that could open the door to a whole new discourse on the Palestinian question.

This has happened much to the chagrin of Israeli shills in the opposition Democratic Alliance and African Christian Democratic Party, whose only response to the Mid-East crisis is the two-state mantra and largely unconditional support of Israel.

Whilst Mesha’al firstly dealt with the predictable issues – such as occupation, the intifada, the praising of Mandela and the ANC and the very real dangers of Israel’s meddling with Al-Aqsa – he did touch on some other topics in his address to the 2,000-strong audience in Cape Town.

Largely under-reported by the media, the second part of his message would have been heard by those who needed to – even though they would very likely deny he said them due to them not fitting the snarling terrorist, let’s annihilate Israel, typecast.

This is because Mesha’al went on to define a vision that communicates a take on the world that decries not only HAMAS’s “right wing”, as it were, but puts to bed the reactionary stereotype.

Islamist movements have been under fire since 2011 and a surge of popularity that soon waned, particularly in Tunisia and Egypt, where voters have become less concerned about Shari’ah-centrism and more about security, competent leadership and bread and butter issues.

Also the rise of ISIS and apocalyptic extremism – usually attributed to Hamas as well by Fox News and Israel – has affected Muslims, Christians and Yazidis in Iraq and Syria.

Addressing the youth, he said that the world had become a confusing place. There was now tremendous confusion between extremism and piety. Don’t mistake extremism for piety, he warned. “Don’t become a victim of confusion.”

Mesha’al also said there was a significant difference between resistance and terror. “We never kill one another on the basis of our differences. As Muslims we just don’t do this.”

He went on to say that South Africans had achieved their rights. Palestinians were proud of South Africans. “Preserve your gains, keep your unity. Unity is road to success. Stand side by side with the ANC that fought for your liberation. Be good citizens in your own country. There is no contradiction in being a good citizen and supporting justice elsewhere. This makes you effective in supporting other struggles,” he said.

To the predominantly Muslim audience Mesha’al said there was no contradiction between being a good Muslim and a good citizen. This was the Prophetic example for Muslims set by Muhammad over 1,400 years ago.

“As Muslims, as South Africans, be of those who lead the way in everything,” he said to applause.

*Shafiq Morton is a journalist and a presenter at Voice of the Cape radio station. He contributed this article to PalestineChronicle.com.

A New Liberal Canada Will Push Ties With India – Analysis

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By Reeta Tremblay*

Under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, Canada’s liberal party received a substantial majority mandate on Oct 19th to form a new government, replacing the Conservative party, with his promise to be an agent of change. It is both a historical and a surprise victory for Mr. Trudeau whose party just eleven weeks ago was in third position, with major doubts being expressed over Mr. Trudeau’s ability to lead Canada; the slogan used by the conservatives was, “is he ready?”

Mr. Trudeau’s election manifesto was one that focused on improving the lives of the middle class through deficit budget financing over three years and by raising taxes on higher income groups in order to pay for all the other promises he made (like, infrastructural investment).

Most significantly, the liberals campaigned against Mr. Harper’s vision of Canada that was rather divisive and was based on politics of fear – fear emanating from external security threats (terrorism) and internal challenges to the Canadian culture (wearing of niqab, etc).

What came to be known as “Niqab” politics dominated the later stages of the campaign when Mr. Harper’s government refused to allow a Muslim woman to take citizenship oath wearing a niqab. During a television interview, Mr. Harper mulled over introducing legislation to ban religious symbols in the Canadian public service.

Two of Mr. Harper’s ministers announced in the last three weeks of the campaign that a new hot-line is to be launched for Canadians to inform the public authorities if their neighbours were engaging in ‘barbaric cultural practices’ (essentially wearing the niqab)!

Opposition to the Harper government’s two new initiatives–Bill C-24, revoking the citizenship of dual citizens convicted of serious crimes, and Bill C-51, anti-terror law, expanding the powers of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, without much oversight– were the two other rallying points for the liberal party’s campaign against Mr. Harper’s conservatives.

Mr. Trudeau openly talked about tolerance, ushering an era of hope rather than fear and bringing all different types of Canadians together. The Liberal party victory represents, on the one hand, a resounding rejection of Mr. Harper’s vision of Canada which centred around security issues, and on the other, an endorsement of a pluralistic, tolerant and respectful Canada.

Discussion of foreign policy remained limited during the campaign period. Mr. Harper was taken to task by Mr. Trudeau for dividing the world into friends and enemies and for shifting Canada’s role to military interventions, thus undermining Canada’s traditional role in peacekeeping and undervaluing the multilateral institutions including the United Nations.

Mr. Harper was severely criticized for not showing compassion for the Syrian refugees by restricting the number accepted and by making the bureaucratic process for entry cumbersome and tedious. In his victory speech, Mr. Trudeau’s message to the world community was that all those around the globe who had worried about the slow disappearance of a compassionate and caring Canada to know that old Canada is back.

On the whole, analysts generally agree that there will not be many major shifts in Canada’s foreign policy. Mr. Trudeau remains pro-trade and has remained non-committal but open to the recently approved Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) which involves 12 major economies covering 40 percent of the world’s trade.

What does a change in the government mean for Canada-India relations? Probably not much difference from what they are now. India and Canada will continue on the positive path which Mr. Harper’s government had consciously constructed. Mr. Harper must be given credit for having re-engaged India after a multi-decade period of indifference, or, at the very least, neglect.

It was during his 2012 visit to India that Prime Minister Harper’s candid assessment of a lacklustre India- Canada relationship moved the bilateral relations to a different level. The recent past has witnessed the resumption of nuclear co-operation and a commitment to increase bilateral trade to $15 billion by 2015.

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), an agreement in the making since 2010, is still at the centre of the India-Canada bilateral economic agenda. The Conservative government also opened space for the Indo-Canada Chamber of Commerce (ICCC), the Canada-India Business Council (C-IBC) and the Canada-India Foundation (CIF) to lobby and exert some influence on Canadian foreign policy towards India. One does not expect the liberal government to divert from this path.

The free trade agenda is going to remain prominent for both India and Canada. India, along with China, is already in the midst of negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an initiative of the Association of Southeast Asians (ASEAN).

Seven member countries of the RCEP are also signatories of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. While it has completed negotiating a comprehensive agreement with Japan, India is still in the process of negotiating with the EU, Australia and Canada.

India is, at present, mulling over the benefits of joining the expanded TPP. But most significantly, if it is eager to join the TPP, India will have to convince its 12 signatories that it is ready to do so. If Canada remains a founding member of the TPP, not only will India’s and Canada’s economic partnership be essential but the signing of CEPA takes on further urgency.

In the new Canadian Parliament, the number of Indo-Canadian community MPs has increased significantly, from nine to 15, and 13 of these belong to the Liberal party. The Indo-Canadian representation has come from Canada’s four major provinces – Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. Moreover, there are widespread rumours that Harjit Sajjan, a Canadian Armed forces Veteran, might be in the new Liberal cabinet.

Mr. Trudeau has promised to have gender parity in his cabinet which would also reflect Canada’s diverse population. Deepak Oberai, the architect of the positive India-Canada relations under Mr. Harper’s regime, has won his seat for the seventh time.

Mr. Modi will find friends in the new Canadian parliament who would certainly assist him with his foreign policy agenda of actively developing the “India brand” globally.

His major strategy for marketing a confident and a strong India has been through connecting and building enduring links with the Indian diaspora. Mr. Modi’s soft power agenda of peace, tolerance and cooperation amongst the nations will find resonance with Mr. Trudeau’s vision of Canada.

*Reeta Tremblay
is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Victoria, British Columbia and a specialist on Kashmir and India-Pakistan relations. She can be contacted at reeta@uvic.ca

What Is The Greatest Threat To The US Today? – OpEd

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On the evening of October 13, 2015, CNN organized the first debate among the Democratic Party’s 2016 presidential candidates in the Las Vegas CNN studio. In the debate, there was an important question that revealed one growing importance in politics: The program moderator, Anderson Cooper, asked the US Democratic Party presidential candidates, “What is the greatest threat to the USA today?”

Hillary Clinton said, “Nuclear armament.” Bernie Sanders, the new entrant to the competition, said, “Global warming is the greatest threat to the United States.”

Bernie Sanders reminds us of the new British Labor Party Chairman, Jeremy Corbyn. He served in the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate for many years. He is defined as a “self-proclaimed, social Democrat,” and early polls say that he is the most popular Democrat candidate, following Hillary Clinton. He is a senior, Jewish-American politician. Will rich, American Jews vote for him? It is unlikely.

Ranking global warming as the most important danger for the US was a very remarkable indication to put into the deal. Henceforth, the other candidates will pay more attention to global warming, less burning of fossil fuels, and to the reduction of CO2 emissions. The rise of environmentalist politicians continue. The politicians who pay less attention to or are ignorant to environmental sensitivity decrease their chances to win.

On the other hand, particularly in Europe and the US, there has been no drastic measure taken to reduce carbon emissions, not to mention the Volkswagen scandal regarding excessive emissions. Global warming does not at all concern the people of the United States. The price of gasoline dropped to $1.95 per gallon. 5.6 liter, V-8 motor vehicles are very popular. You cannot find anyone willing to say, “Let us leave our big cars, and let’s take public transportation.”

The realities and needs of the people of Turkey are different. “There are a million issues to improve before tackling carbon emissions,” you might say. The Current Account Deficient is high, there is terror, a fragile economy, market disturbance, difficulty in financing projects, etc. According to world 2010 statistics, the US is still leading the way with 17 tons of annual CO2 emissions per person. The latest Turkish figures were published at 4 to 5 tons per person per year.

However, on every available platform, global warming is entering the agenda. US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other G7 leaders made serious decisions about the prevention of global warming in the latest G7 conference in Germany. In the upcoming G20 leaders’ meeting on 20 November, this issue will certainly be on the agenda again. By reducing the use of fossil fuels, one should talk about price and market deterrence. Either fossil fuels will be subject to import taxes or the existing tax will be increased. Market observers predict the escape from fossil fuels in the near future.

USA, China, India, and South Korea tax the imported coal they receive. They even have increased the existing tax two to three fold. The purpose of the tax on imported coal and fossil fuels is to provide market deterrence, which subsequently makes indigenous and renewable energy sources more attractively priced.

This issue will surely be on the G20 leaders’ meeting agenda in Belek. We, the Turkish team, have to be prepared. G7 partners can make a decision. Countries that cannot decide on their own strategies must adapt to the decisions of others.

Everywhere in the world, all fossil fuel firing thermal power plant investors are placed to avoid the domestic tax on imported coal by lobbying. They try to prevent the tax, but that remains in the past.

In the upcoming December 2015 Climate Change Conference to be held in Paris, each country is expected to commit to reduce the carbon emissions it produces. Each country is making its own preparations in this regard. Certainly, Turkey is also making preparations. We, the people away from politics, do not know what the government and relevant ministries are preparing, but surely there is a plan being made.

There are suggestions from various sectors in this regard. One of the proposals put forward suggests that the tax on imported coal and imported natural gas also apply to the carbon tax in order to collect funds, then to utilize these funds to get power from renewable energy sources, such as the generation of energy from the wind and sun. Thus, we can reach the projected targets for carbon emissions, growth, and development. Utilization of indigenous lignite and more renewable, domestic sources, like wind and solar power, with local engineering are essential to realize more domestic manufacturing.

Investors are to make calculations and market predictions carefully to foresee the future of imported coal and fossil fuels. If they can not foresee the future, they must share the risk with others by hedging to stay safe financially. If the control valve remains at the mercy of foreign countries and if your current account deficit is at an unbearable level, then you should stay away from imported fossil fuels in the future and try to reduce your dependence.

There is no need to invest more in natural gas pipelines; there’s no need for further investments in imported coal. It is all at the investor’s risk. No matter what investors do, do as you wish, but please keep us out of this, and do not ask the public authorities to save you by paying for your poor decisions.


California 2100: More Frequent And More Severe Droughts And Floods Likely

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In the future, the Pacific Ocean’s temperature cycles could disrupt more than just December fishing. A study published in Nature Communications suggests that the weather patterns known as El Nino and La Nina could lead to at least a doubling of extreme droughts and floods in California later this century.

The study shows more frequent extreme events are likely to occur. Other research shows the Golden State’s average precipitation increasing gradually, but not enough to account for the occurrence of extreme events. A better understanding of what gives rise to El Nino and La Nina cycles — together known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation — might help California predict and prepare for more frequent droughts and floods in the coming century.

“Wet and dry years in California are linked to El Nino and La Nina. That relationship is getting stronger,” said atmospheric scientist Jin-Ho Yoon of the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. “Our study shows that ENSO will be exhibiting increasing control over California weather.”

Rain’s range

California is experiencing one of the most severe droughts in its history, but it’s not clear if a warmer world will make droughts worse, more frequent or perhaps even improve the situation. After all, warmer air can hold more water, and some research suggests global warming could increase California’s average rain and snowfall.

However, research also suggests future rain will come down more as light drizzles and heavy deluges and less as moderate rainfall. Yoon and colleagues from PNNL and Utah State University in Logan, Utah, wondered if droughts might follow a similar pattern.

To find out, the researchers looked at what happens to California in global climate models. They simulated two periods of time: 1920 to 2005 using historical measurements; and 2006 to 2080 using conditions in which very few efforts are made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They chose this future scenario to examine the most extreme case.

To understand how well the simulations worked, they used two tactics to show reproducibility: In one tactic, they used a compilation of 38 different models. In the other, they re-ran a single model 30 times. The more similar the results, the more sure the researchers were of the finding.

Weather pendulum

The models showed that in the future, assuming emissions continue to increase, California seasons will exhibit more excessively wet and excessively dry events. These results suggest that the frequency of droughts could double and floods could triple between the early 20th century and late 21st century.

“By 2100, we see more — and more extreme — events. Flooding and droughts will be more severe than they are currently,” said Yoon.

But why? Yoon suspected the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Every two to seven years, El Nino comes in and warms up the tropical Pacific Ocean a few degrees, increasing winter rain and snowpack in California. On a similar schedule, La Nina cools things off. Both disrupt regular weather in many regions around the globe.

To explore El Nino’s connection to California precipitation, Yoon and colleagues ran a climate model with and without El Nino. In both simulations, they ramped up the concentration of carbon dioxide by 1 percent every year for 150 years. In just one of the runs, they removed El Nino’s cyclical contribution by programming the sea surface temperatures to reflect only steady warming.

Without El Nino and La Nina, the frequency of extreme precipitation in California stayed constant for the simulation’s century and a half. With ENSO, simulated California experienced wide swings in rainfall by the end of the period.

The results suggest that even though researchers expect rain and snowfall to increase as the climate warms, the manner in which the water hits California could be highly variable.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is still a bit of a mystery, said Yoon. Scientists only know El Nino and La Nina years, named for the Spanish terms for boy and girl, are coming by sea surface temperatures and other weather hints. Studies that investigate what controls the unruly children could help scientists predict unruly weather in the future.

3D-Printed Food To Help Patients With Dysphagia

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Labelled by some as the future of food, 3D printed meals could soon make it to our plates. The EU-funded PERFORMANCE project just presented its vision of this future in Brussels, with a 3D printed meal for elders facing swallowing and masticating difficulties.

NASA is not the only organization in the world interested in food printing. Whilst the concept could indeed be a must-have for astronauts on their future trip to Mars, it also arouses interest in Earth-focused sectors. For food producers, 3D food printing evokes unlimited customization potential for their products, as well as unique food formulations for specific dietary needs.

The latter was one of the main targets of PERFORMANCE, a 3 million euro project that developed a novel nutrition concept for the elders suffering from dysphagia – chewing and swallowing difficulties generally resulting for a stroke or dementia. And many of the innovative solutions developed as part of PERFORMANCE – from data software for meal details to unique active packaging – are now primed for commercialization.

The PERFORMANCE concept

Unlike current dysphagia diets, which are mostly based on purée and pre-mashed food and result in loss of appetite, eventually leading to malnutrition, the PERFORMANCE concept replicates the look and taste of ‘real’ food and it to each patient’s needs. The project team explains that ‘puréed and strained food is brought back into its original shape, providing the same texture and look, and provides additional health benefits.’

The food is enriched with specific nutrients based on each patient’s size, weight, gender and deficiencies, and these can be adjusted to ensure that the diet is always well-balanced. This process is fully automated, thanks to an algorithm created by German IT company Sanalogic: it monitors the nutritional status of each patient and automatically enriches the meals of subsequent orders on a weekly basis. The project team predicts that the full personalisation of food, which has now been advanced by the work of PERFORMANCE, will be an automatic reality in an era of Industry 4.0.

The best-possible clone

Getting as close to the original food shape was one of the main challenges faced by the project team.

“Printed puréed food needs to be firm after printing, but liquid enough to dispense from the printing heads,” explained Pascal de Grood, founder and CEO of project partner Foodjet.

“We use a printing technology based on jet printing. A gelling agent supports the shaping of the puréed and strained food. On the one hand the gelling agent needs to be compatible with the printing system, while on the other hand the printing system must support food matrices such as meat, carbohydrate and vegetables,” de Grood said.

The system uses only natural ingredients along with a natural texturiser to make the printed meal as close as possible to the real thing.

Every detail has been taken into account, even beyond the food itself. To avoid the hot and cold spots resulting from food heating in a microwave, the Danish Technological Institute and Italian partners FEMTO and University of Pisa developed ‘active packaging’ – a split plate with perforated micro-wave reflectors placed on top and underneath it.

Putting the PERFORMANCE taste to the test

The PERFORMANCE concept is already being tested by the target market – consumer tastings were carried out in care homes just last week. Project manager Sandra Forstner from biozoon food innovations presented some preliminary results at the final project conference: “This week we went back to nursing homes to prove and validate the concept, and we have had some positive preliminary results so far.”

The tastings tested the whole PERFORMANCE system – from ordering personalized meals using the specially developed software to the production and delivery of prototype food products which were reheated and served in the care home. Preliminary results show a generally positive reaction to the meal’s shape, appearance and taste: 54% of respondents rated the meal’s texture as good, 79% found meals equally heated and 43% would choose the PERFORMANCE meal in the case of swallowing or chewing difficulties.

Bringing PERFORMANCE to market

In terms of commercialization, project coordinator Matthias Kück, also from biozoon, acknowledges that 3D food printing has some way to go until it becomes a viable commercial process however he notes that the PERFORMANCE team is working on ‘making the necessary breakthrough’.

And although this means that it may be some time before the entire PERFORMANCE concept can be implemented, the individual solutions developed won’t be back on the shelf gathering dust – quite the opposite in fact. Kück assured participants at the final conference, “Even if PERFORMANCE is not implemented on the market immediately, you can expect many of the products developed within PERFORMANCE to be commercialized as single stand alone solutions very soon.”

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Divisions As Faction Swears Islamic State Allegiance

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A leader of the Somali al Shabab insurgency, Abdul Qadir Mumin, has sworn loyalty to the Islamic State (IS), declaring a split between his faction and others of the armed group, battling the Mogadishu government, affiliated since 2012 to al Qaeda.

Mumin’s decision, according to sources close to al Shabab and US intelligence, was announced in a video in which the group’s spiritual leader appears with Jihadists. The video should soon be put in circulation. According to the online Soali independent Shabelle news agency, the secret police of the Islamist group, known as ‘Amniyat’, arrested the members who swore loyalty to ISIS.

The internal division is however more symbolic rather than numerically strategic: the members of the ‘secessionist’ faction in fact count around a hundred, and mostly youths, on the 1,400 combatants of al Shabab.

Sources close to al Shabab told CNN that the main motive behind the decision is discontent over the ‘iron fist’ of the current leader Ahmad Umar in commanding the group and hopes of obtaining more technological means and weapons from the movement headed by the ‘Caliph’ Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.

Spain: Zara Founder Amancio Ortega Briefly World’s Richest Man

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Zara’s founder and Spanish businessmen Amancio Ortega briefly overtook Bill Gates to become the world’s richest man on Friday, according to Forbes magazine.

Forbes updated the latest rise in the stock market value of Inditex, the world’s leading retailer that operates Zara’s brand, whose shares hit an all-time high on Friday taking Ortega’s fortune above the 70 billion euro mark (77 billion U.S. dollars) for the first time, rising to 79.6 billion U.S. dollars.

Ortega has a 59.29 percent stake in Inditex that is valued at 62.3 billion euros (68.6 billion U.S. dollars).

Ortega’s reign, however, was short lived, as a 10 percent surge in Microsoft’s stocks allowed Bill Gates to regain the title of the World’s Richest Man.

Inditex operates eight brands including Zara, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, Pull&Bear, Stradivarius, Oysho, Zara Home and Uterque. It has around 6,746 stores in 88 different markets and employs 140,000 people.

Bangladesh Killings: A Culture Of Impunity – Analysis

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By Dr. Binodkumar Singh*

On October 5, 2015, three unidentified assailants tried to slit the throat of Luke Sarkar (52), pastor of the Faith Bible Church, at his house in the Ishwardi upazila (sub-district) of Pabna district. He survived the attack with minor injuries. Later, on October 12, five Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) terrorists, including its Pabna ‘regional chief’ Rakibul Islam Rabbi aka Rakib were arrested over the murder attempt.

Separately, on October 5, former chairman of Power Development Board (PDB), a freedom fighter and a pir (revered religious instructor) Muhammad Khijir Khan (66) was killed by seven unidentified armed men by slitting his throat at his Madhya Badda house in the capital Dhaka city for his liberal views about religion. On October 15, Tariqul Islam Tarer alias Mithu, an organizer of JMB arrested from Delduar upazila (sub-district) in Tangail district, in his confession to killing Khijir Khan, stated, “As Khijir Khan was a so-called pir and his activities were contradictory to religious ideology, it was our (JMB) responsibility as believers to kill him.”

Shockingly, since December 2013, five pirs and six of their family members and assistants had been murdered by Islamist extremists. On September 7, 2015, assailants shot to death Hazrat Moulana Mohammad Salahuddin Khan Bishal (30), a pir, in his sleep in Vorotpur area of Atghoria upazila (sub-district) in Pabna district. On September 5, 2015, unknown assailants slit the throat of a pir named Rahmat Ullah (60), along with an attendant inside his shrine in Bayezid area of Chittagong city in Chittagong district. On August 29, 2014, the chief imam of the Supreme Court mosque Shiekh Nurul Islam Faruqi (60) was slaughtered at his East Rajabazar house in Dhaka city by 10 unidentified assailants. On December 22, 2013, assailants slit the throats of six people, including pir Lutfur Rahman Faruk (60); Faruk’s son Monir Hossain; the house’s caretaker Monju; and Faruk’s followers Shaheen, Rasel, and Mojibur Rahma at Ramkrishna Mission Road in Dhaka city. Islamic extremists were largely blamed for all these incidents.

Besides the pirs, the foreigners in Bangladesh have become targets of Islamic extremists in recent months. On September 28, 2015, Italian charity worker Cesare Tavella (50), a technical director working at Netherlands-based development organization Interchurch Organization for Development Cooperation (ICCO), was killed by three unidentified armed men in Dhaka city’s Gulshan area. Search for International Terrorist Entities (SITE) Intelligence Group, a website that tracks online activity of jihadi organizations, said a communiqué by Islamic State (IS) claimed that “a security detachment” tracked and killed Cesare with ‘silenced weapons’ in the streets of Dhaka city. On October 3, 2015, Japanese national Hoshi Kunio (66), researching on a new variety of grass was gunned down by three unidentified armed men when he was going by rickshaw to his two acres grass farm at Alutari in Kaunia sub-district of Rangpur district. Reuters and Vice News quoted the IS as tweeting: “There will continue to be a series of ongoing security operations against nationals of crusader coalition countries; they will not have safety or a livelihood in Muslim lands.”

Moreover, the Islamist extremists have been targeting secular and free thinking people. So far, four bloggers have been killed in 2015 by suspected Islamist terrorists. On August 7, Niladri Chattopadhyay Niloy alias Niloy Neel (28), a secular blogger and a Gonojagoron Mancha (People’s Resurgence Platform) activist was hacked to death at his Goran residence in the Khilgaon area of Dhaka city; on May 12, Ananta Bijoy Das (32), a progressive writer, blogger, editor of science fiction magazine Jukti, and an organizer of Gonojagoron Mancha, was hacked to death, using machetes, by four assailants at Subidbazar Bankolapara residential area of Sylhet city in Sylhet district. On March 30, another blogger and online activist, Oyasiqur Rahman Babu (27), was hacked to death in broad daylight in Dhaka city for his allegedly atheist views; and on February 26, Bangladesh-born American citizen blogger Avijit Roy (42), the founder of the Mukta-mona.com blog, was hacked to death in Dhaka city.

Further, Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT, Volunteer of Allah Bangla Team) on September 23, 2015, issued a hit list of secular bloggers, writers and activists around the world, including nine bloggers based in the UK, seven in Germany, two in the US, one in Canada and one in Sweden. The statement featured a logo comprising a black flag carrying the seal of the prophet Mohammed and the phrase: “We do not forget, we do not forgive” in English. Similarly, on October 17, Gonojagoron Mancha spokesperson Imran H. Sarker was threatened with death allegedly by a member of Islamic State Bangladesh (ISB). A Facebook user named ‘Araf Al Islam ISB’ issued the threat through Imran’s Facebook message box saying, “Your death is imminent. You will be killed in the way the two foreigners were killed.”

Distressingly, Chief Justice of Bangladesh, Surendra Kumar Sinha on October 5, 2015, said, “We are trying hard to combat terrorism. It is a global issue, which India and Bangladesh are facing at the same time. Terrorism has become a major problem now. ISIS was behind several acts, such as burning of Jordanian pilot, mass slaughter, beheadings, stoning, etc. We need to put an end to these acts by ISIS. In Bangladesh, terrorism has become a serious threat to our national security. It has become a threat to life, economy and political as well as religious pluralism in Bangladesh.”

Disturbingly, the killing of bloggers in Bangladesh propelled the country onto the Global Impunity Index of Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ). The CPJ, in a report published on October 8, 2015, said: “At least four Bangladeshi bloggers have been hacked to death by apparent Islamic extremists this year alone, and a total of five of Bangladesh’s seven victims of unsolved murders over the last decade are bloggers who criticized religious extremism. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the nominally secular ruling Awami League party have done little to speak out for justice in these crimes, allowing political interests to trump rule of law.”

Indeed, the recent killings of foreigners’ in Bangladesh have raised concern from foreign governments about the danger of violent attacks against their citizens and prompted a debate over whether the Islamic State or other violent radical Islamist groups are behind such attacks. Nevertheless, these killings are a reaction to the assertiveness demonstrated by the government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed, as a result of which the threat from Islamist terrorism in Bangladesh has been minimized. Moreover, the speedy War Crimes Trials is another worrying factor for the radicals to escalate such incidents. However, this culture of impunity where criminals find a safe route after committing crimes no matter how heinous, has destroyed the law and order and given rise to a society of injustice and indifference.

*Dr. Binodkumar Singh is a Research Associate at the Institute for Conflict Management. He can be reached at editor@spsindia.in

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