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7.5 Magnitude Earthquake Causes Heavy Casualties, Damage In Afghanistan, Pakistan

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(RFE/RL) — One of the strongest earthquakes to hit Afghanistan in decades has rocked the country’s north, leaving heavy casualties and damage in its wake across South Asia.

More than 30 people were reported killed in Afghanistan on October 26, while more than 120 were reported dead in neighboring Pakistan.

Twelve Afghan schoolgirls trying to flee their school in Takhar Province were among those who died as a result of the 7.5-magnitude quake.

Sonatullah Timor, spokesman for the governor of the northern Afghan province, spoke to RFE/RL about the tragedy that unfolded at the school in the provincial capital, Taloqan.

“Most of the girls died in a panic that ensued. No school was damaged in the quake,” he said. “However, there was a lot of panic, and, because there is only one exit at a school leading from the second to the ground floor, some of them could have died in the crush.”

Timor said that more than 30 schoolgirls had been hospitalized with injuries, some of them serious.

The earthquake, which hit Afghanistan’s northern Hindu Kush region, lasted at least one minute and shook buildings in Kabul, Islamabad, and Delhi and sent thousands of people rushing into the streets.

Afghan Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah, who was providing updates on the situation on his official Twitter account, said that the government had requested help from aid agencies and was looking for ways to speed up the delivery of medical help.

In one tweet, he said the earthquake was the strongest one felt in recent memory.

An RFE/RL correspondent in Afghanistan’s northern Baghlan Province witnessed several buildings collapse in the regional capital, Puli Khumri. The earthquake disrupted electricity supplies in the region’s districts and affected telephone connections.

RFE/RL correspondents in Pakistan report that the earthquake mainly affected the Swat Valley in the country’s northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where buildings collapsed in the city of Peshawar and nearby districts. Officials say that the number of killed in Pakistan was at least 60, with dozens of injuries reported.

In Indian controlled Kashmir, an 80-year-old woman died of a heart attack in the southern town of Bijbehara and two Indian army soldiers were injured when a sentry post collapsed on them in the town of Sopore, local police said.

The earthquake also caused landslides, disrupting regular traffic in various parts of Kashmir.

The landslides blocked the main highway connecting Pakistan and China. Karakoram Highway in northern Pakistan has been sealed off at multiple points, local authorities said. The blockage has stranded thousands of travelers and vehicles in remote areas.

Like Afghanistan’s Abdullah, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to Twitter after the earthquake.

Afghanistan is frequently hit by earthquakes, especially in the Hindu Kush mountain range, which lies near the junction of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates.

The October 25 earthquake’s epicenter was just a few hundred kilometers from the site of a 7.6 magnitude quake that struck in October 2005, killing more than 75,000 people and displacing some 3.5 million more.


Morocco Ready To Take India-Africa Economic Engagement To A New Level – OpEd

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Morocco is determined to establish real win-win partnerships with African countries, a new axis for peace and economic prosperity. Economic interests and geo-political considerations account for much of Moroccan royal’s diplomatic offensive. Morocco has always voiced openly its keen interest to establish a powerful partnership with African countries. With this new vision Morocco has become a leading continental power that will guarantee economic dynamism, security and stability in the African continent

Undoubtedly, the African economy is gearing up a notch, and now as the continent has to work together to make the most of it, Morocco is positioning itself as a motor of African integration.

The African continent is changing. Strong population, natural, agricultural resources, and an emerging middle class have resulted in growth which attracts international investors. It’s almost a new frontier. Africa has swept away the systems of the past and begun a profound transformation, moving through it stage by stage. Many African countries started with basic infrastructure like education, health, housing, and agriculture. And each country is now part of a region and can produce goods labelled “Made in Africa” for the international market.”

Committed defender of African integration, Morocco is an regional economic and financial hub, a hotspot for international investment in Africa. But South-South dialogue isn’t enough in itself. African development can only prosper with a triangular co-operation model, North-South-South.

Morocco is strengthening its political, economic and spiritual presence in Africa. This royal vision will certainly contribute efficiently to a stable and prosperous africa that will become more and more economically attractive to foreign investors.

Morocco’ s political influence is growing and so is the trust of the states it is working with. The kingdom keeps defending African’s cause, either directly, thanks to its participation in different operations to maintain peace or either indirectly, supporting, in all of the international summits, sustained efforts for human and social development in the sub-Saharan area.

Morocco also relies on its spiritual diplomacy. King Mohammed VI in his capacity as Commander of the Faithful, agreed to official requests made by African countries to benefit from religious training and cooperation.

Morocco has taken an engagement not just on security issues in sub-Saharan Africa , but on environmental issues, economic issues , social issues and education issues. In the ongoing India-Africa Forum Summit taking place in New Delhi, King Mohammed will certainly take that engagement to a whole new level.

India-Myanmar: Redrawing Battle Lines In The Northeast – Analysis

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By Fakir Mohan Pradhan*

The Myanmar Government signed a Nationwide Ceasefire Accord (NCA) with eight ethnic armed groups on October 15, 2015, enhancing prospects of ending a majority of the country’s long-running internal conflicts. President U Thein Sein hailed the signing of the Accord as a “historic” event. The signing ceremony was witnessed by international observers including representatives from India, Thailand, Japan, China, the United Nations and the European Union. Fifteen armed groups were invited to take part in negotiations that lasted almost two years, with eight groups finally agreeing to sign the NCA, while seven groups chose to stay away. Acknowledging that the ethnic Kachin and Wa – with tens of thousands of soldiers – are still determined to fight, President Thein Sein pledged to “try harder to gain agreement with other groups”.

According to the President, the signing will be followed by the formation of a Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee to prevent armed clashes and a Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee to facilitate political dialogue. A political framework is to be drawn up within 60 days after the formal NCA signing and the political dialogue is to start within 90 days.

India hailed the signing of NCA, which was witnessed by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Chairman of Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) and interlocutor for Naga peace talks R.N. Ravi and former Chief Minister of Mizoram Zoramthanga. Zoramthanga had been involved in the peace deal and had travelled earlier to Myanmar and Thailand where he held talks with both Myanmarese rebel groups and the Government as a mediator.

At least three groups active along the Indo-Myanmar border – the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), Chin National Front (CNF) and Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) – were part of the peace negotiations ahead of signing of NCA. While CNF signed up, KIO and NSCN-K walked out. NSCN-K had taken the decision not be part of the NCA in a party conference held on September 21 at its headquarters, where NSCN-K ‘chairman’ S.S Khaplang and other central committee members were present. Later, in an interview with Independent Mon News Agency (report published on September 24) U Kyaw Sein, an NSCN-K central committee member said, “We already discussed the topic with our chairman. The chairman said we aren’t ready to sign the NCA yet. And, there are some political issues in our group. We cannot find a solution for this by just signing the NCA. The government side also cannot solve this problem. So, we decided not to participate in the NCA inking.” He did not reveal what these political problems were, though he added, “It is not that we will revolt against the Burmese Government because we do not sign the NCA”. Though NSCN-K is not a signatory to the Agreement, from India’s internal security perspective the NCA can be very significant as Myanmar still remains a safe haven for a host of militant outfits active in India’s north-east. Erstwhile safe havens in Bhutan and Bangladesh have now become extremely difficult.

NSCN-K was in ceasefire agreement with Government of India since April 28, 2001, till March 27, 2015 when it unilaterally pulled out of the truce and attacked the Indian Army in Chandel District on June 4, 2015, causing the death of 18 Army personnel and injuring another 11 soldiers. Significantly, NSCN-K had also entered into a ceasefire agreement with Myanmar on April 9, 2012, which allowed it elbow room to maintain peace with Myanmar while stepping up violence in its area of operation in India. This made things difficult for India, as Myanmar lacked a legal framework to take action against it, even if Indian diplomatic efforts could convince Myanmar to take punitive action against NSCN-K. There is a possibility now that things may change.

With the signing of NCA and NSCN-K’s exclusion, the group’s earlier ceasefire with Myanmar is in danger of being derecognized. In fact, U Kyaw Sein in the interview to Independent Mon News Agency had acknowledged that, at a meeting with the Government at Myanmar Peace Center on September 16, 2015, officials told the NSCN-K that if it did not participate in the NCA signing, the group would be included in the unlawful groups list.

Significantly, following NSCN-K’s refusal to be part of the NCA, Myanmar troops have launched punitive operations against the outfit’s facilities in Myanmar Naga Hills (MNH). Two major bases at Ponyu and Langhting were set afire and a few weapons seized, driving cadres into forest and mountain hideouts. Myanmar now has the legal cover to act against NSCN-K, as and when it decides to do so. Further, after resolving a majority of conflicts in the country, Myanmar can effectively turn the heat on the remaining insurgent outfits outside the NCA. It is, however, likely to take significant diplomatic efforts to convince Myanmar to act effectively and in a sustained manner against the anti-India groups.

Meanwhile, as the NCA was being signed in Myanmar, Paresh Baruah, ‘commander-in-chief’ of the United Liberation Front of Asom – Independent (ULFA-I) spoke to The Assam Tribune over phone from an undisclosed location and claimed that the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWSEA) would enhance its strength by incorporating another nine militant outfits in its fold. The UNLFWSEA was formed on April 17, 2015, by four active militant groups of the Northeast region – NSCN-K, ULFA-I; the IK Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS); and Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) – with the aim of setting up a ‘northeast government-in-exile’, reportedly to be based in Myanmar. S.S. Khaplang, the NSCN-K ‘chief’ is chairman of this new front, UNLFWSEA.

Paresh Baruah claimed that two Meghalaya-based outfits – Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) and Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) – have already expressed their desire to join the common platform. He added that the formal process of these outfits joining the new grouping may be completed within the current year. Further, the Coordination Committee (CorCom), a common platform of seven militant groups of Manipur, is likely to join the new front. Baruah claimed that six member outfits of CorCom were ready to join UNLFWSEA immediately, “But we want the entire CorCom to join us. They have some problem with one of the constituents and we are hoping that they can settle their problems soon so that the entire CorCom can join us. We are expecting that the seven outfits of Manipur will be joining hands with us within this year.” Baruah also claimed that one insurgent group from Tripura would also be joining the front ‘soon’.

While the developments in Myanmar can be seen as an opportunity to put increased pressure on the militant formations in India’s Northeast, UNLFW is seeking out ways to withstand that pressure and keep the situation boiling at a time when a ‘historic accord’ has been signed between the Government of India and the largest rebel Naga group, the National Socialist Council of Nagalim – Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) on August 3, 2015, raising hopes of a larger peace in the Northeast.

According to South Asia Terrorism Portal database there has been a sustained decline in insurgent violence in India’s Northeast over the years, with occasional spikes in certain theatres. As of October 25, 2015, the Northeast as whole recorded a total of 236 fatalities, including 52 civilians, 46 Security Force (SF) personnel and 138 militants, while the figure for the corresponding period in 2014 saw a total of 333 fatalities including 145 civilians, 17 SF personnel and 171 militants. Significantly, however, though more than two months remain in the current year, SF fatalities have already doubled in comparison to the whole of 2014. In fact, one thing stands out in the fatalities data for the Northeast: SF fatalities had not crossed 40 since 2008, but have already touched 46 in 2015 (as of October 25).

Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in India’s Northeast 2005-2015

Year

Civilians
SFs
Terrorists
Total

2005

334
69
314
717

2006

232
92
313
637

2007

457
68
511
1036

2008

404
40
607
1051

2009

270
40
542
852

2010

77
22
223
322

2011

79
35
132
246

2012

90
18
208
316

2013

95
21
136
252

2014

245
23
197
465

2015

52
46
138
236
Total
2335
474
3321
6130
Source: SATP, *Data till October 25, 2015

As battle lines are redrawn in the Northeast, there is a lurking danger of escalation of violence. The NSCN-K, is trying to capture the militant space apparently vacated by the Isak-Muivah faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM). If Paresh Baruah is to be believed, and despite the potentially mounting pressure in Myanmar, S.S. Khaplang is in no mood to come to the negotiating table any time soon. However, if India gets its Myanmar maths correct, the militants will find the situation getting progressively more difficult.

*Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Pakistan: Rising Tempest In Punjab – Analysis

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By Ambreen Agha*

On October 14, 2015, at least seven people, including three contestants of the upcoming Local Government Elections (LGEs), were killed and 13 were injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the camp office of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Member of National Assembly (MNA) Sardar Amjad Khosa in the Taunsa Sharif city of Taunsa tehsil (revenue unit) in Dera Ghazi Khan District, Punjab Province. Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JuA, Group of the Free), a breakaway faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. JuA ‘spokesman’ Ehsanullah Ehsan, in an email statement, vowed that TTP-JuA attacks would continue until Sharia’h (Islamic) law was fully implemented in Pakistan: “We want to make it clear to the Pakistani rulers that your policies and military operations can’t weaken our determinations, rather our firm determination helps us in achieving and attacking our targets.”

Khosa, who was not present at the camp office at the time of the attack, stated, “As per routine, people were gathered in my hujra [a hall for holding meetings] to discuss their issues, when a powerful blast took place. Many of my close political workers lost their lives in this attack, but it will not make us back down from our battle against terrorism.” The LGEs are scheduled to take place on December 3, 2015.

On October 15, 2015, Security Forces (SFs), raided a house located in the Jorian village near the Dhamial Base in Rawalpindi District at 2:00am. As the joint raiding team reached the house, terrorists opened fire and hurled hand grenades. In the ensuing exchange of fire and suicide blasts, three terrorists, including two women; and one Police commando, identified as Irshad Ahmed, was killed. The women terrorists were identified as Malika Bibi and Sumaira Bibi. Two children inside the house were also killed when one of the women blew herself up. One of the injured terrorists was a ‘commander’ of the TTP and was planning a terrorist attack during Muharram (the first month of the Islamic calendar, commemorated as a period of mourning by the Shia community) in the District. Muharram started on October 15, 2015. Police later searched the house and recovered two 9mm pistols, two hand grenades, and one old car reportedly loaded with explosives.

Earlier, on September 13, 2015, at least 10 persons were killed and 59 were injured when a suicide bomber targeted a rickshaw near Vehari Chowk in Multan District. No outfit has claimed responsibility for the attack so far.

On August 15, 2015, in a high profile attack, the Home Minister of the Punjab Province, Colonel Shuja Khanzada (Retd.) and 22 others, including Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Shaukat Shah, were killed, and another 23 persons were injured, in a suicide attack, which took place when between 50-100 people were attending a jirga (tribal council) at Khanzada’s political office in the Shadi Khan Village of Attock District. This attack shares similarities with the latest October 15 bombing, in terms of the target and event.

Punjab has experienced political killings in the past as well. The last high profile political killing was, of course, the assassination of Salman Taseer, the then Governor of the Punjab Province, who was killed in Islamabad Capital Territory, on January 4, 2011, by one of his own body guards, Malik Mumtaz Hussain Qadri. Qadri was reportedly incensed by the Governor’s efforts to amend the controversial blasphemy law [a punitive law against any critic or defamer of the Islamic religion, Prophet Mohammad or the holy Quran], as also his advocacy of Aasia Bibi, a Christian woman sentenced to death on November 7, 2010, for alleged blasphemy. Similarly, former Federal Minister for Minorities Affairs, Shahbaz Bhatti, was killed in a targeted attack on March 2, 2011 in Islamabad for his open opposition to the country’s controversial blasphemy laws. Fidayeen-e-Muhammad [Those who Sacrifice their Lives for Prophet Muhammad], a faction of the TTP and al Qaeda-Punjab Chapter, had claimed responsibility for the attack. Pamphlets left by them at the incident site declared, “anyone who criticizes the blasphemy law has no right to live.”

According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), Punjab has already recorded 155 terrorism-linked fatalities in the current year, including 89 civilians, 58 terrorists and eight SF personnel (all data till October 25, 2015). During the corresponding period in 2014, the Province had recorded a total of 101 fatalities, including 65 civilians, 21 terrorists and 15 SF personnel.

Dera Ghazi Khan, the location of the most recent attack, has, thus far, recorded a total 17 terrorism-related incidents since 2005, resulting in a total of 142 fatalities, including 128 civilians, 13 terrorists and one SF trooper. Most of the fatalities in the District have been the result of suicide attacks. Dera Ghazi Khan has recorded a total of four suicide attacks since 2005. The last suicide attack in the District before the October 14, 2015, incident was in 2011. On April 3, 2011, at least 51 persons were killed and more than 100 were injured when two suicide bombers blew themselves up outside the shrine of Sufi saint Ahmed Sultan, popularly known as Sakhi Sarwar. Ehsanullah Ehsan, the then ‘spokesperson’ of TTP, had claimed responsibility for the attack on the shrine. He had said, “Our men carried out these attacks and we will carry out more in retaliation for Government operations against our people in the northwest.”

Prior to this, on December 15, 2009, a suicide car bomb exploded in a market outside the residence of the then Punjab Chief Minister’s Senior Adviser, Zulfiqar Khosa in Dera Ghazi Khan, killing 33 people and injuring 60. In another attack in the District, on February 5, 2009, a suicide bomber had blown himself up amidst a crowd of Shia worshippers outside Johar Ali Imambargah (A Shia place of commemoration) located in Muslim Town, killing at least 32 and injuring another 48.

Continuing violence in the District as well as in the Province is a result of the increasing presence of terrorist outfits that exploit the spaces created by selective political patronage in the Province. Dera Ghazi Khan, which lies in South Punjab, is home to a network of sophisticated jihadi formations, as are other parts of the Province. The District is also the location of the country’s largest nuclear facilities, creating extraordinary vulnerabilities to terrorist attack. The other Districts of the Province are also under threat. Significantly, on September 17, 2015, the Police arrested an Afghanistan-trained terrorist, identified as Umer Hayat alias Darvesh, from MPR Colony of Orangi Town in Karachi (Sindh). Darvesh, associated with Tehreek-e-Imarat Islamia, Afghanistan, hailed from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and was planning to carry out an attack on the Kamra Airbase in Attock District, Punjab. Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Junaid Ahmed Shaikh disclosed that Darvesh was also a suicide bomber who had trained two suicide bombers, Raz Mohammed and Taj Mohammed and that, “The purported suicide bombers had been sent to Punjab to carry out a terror act at the Kamra Airbase.”

The dismal situation is further compounded by the tacit support provided to a variety of terrorist and extremist formations by the Federal and Provincial Governments, making the Province an ideological sanctuary and a recruitment ground for various terrorist groups. Indeed, early on January 1, 2015, Awami National Party (ANP) Central General Secretary Mian Iftikhar Hussain declared Punjab a “training centre for terrorists and their masterminds” and demanded that the Government initiate decisive action against the terrorist leadership and infrastructure in the Province. He stressed, further, that “terrorism could not be eliminated from the country until an operation began against terrorist organisations in Punjab”.

The implicit support of the judiciary is also worrisome. The trial of top Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) ‘commander’ Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind of the November 26, 2008, Mumbai (India) terror attacks (also known as 26/11) case, lingers on, with the courts approving every delaying device, including the interminable adjournment of hearings. Significantly, on December 18, 2014, the Islamabad Anti-Terrorism Court Judge Syed Kausar Abbas Zaidi who was hearing the case, granted bail to Lakhvi, noting “evidence against Lakhvi was deficient”. This led to an uproar, both in India and in the international community. Under intense pressure, Lakhvi was rearrested but was released again on bail on April 9, 2015.

Further, the Province is both home and host to LeT ‘founder’ and Jama’at-ud-Dawa (JuD) ‘chief’ Hafiz Muhammad Saeed whose frequent incitement to violent jihad against India and the West at public gatherings and rallies has been widely documented, as have been the terrorist activities of the groups he leads. LeT/JuD, nevertheless, continues to be cultivated and supported as an anti-India asset by the Pakistani establishment, with complete freedom of activity in across Pakistan, including the Islamabad Capital Territory. Demonstrating its duplicitous stand on JuD, the Pakistan Government on January 22, 2015, declared that it had ‘banned’ the group, along with several other terrorist organistaions, including the Haqqani Network. However, earlier on January 16, 2015, Pakistan’s Minister for Defence Production told Hindustan Times in an exclusive interview, “We are looking to ban terror organisations but the JuD is a charitable organisation and the Government of Pakistan has no evidence against Hafiz Saeed or the JuD.” Subsequently after several u-turns, Pakistan’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson stated that there was “no new ban” on JuD. Describing this “as the same cycle of plants and denials, the same smoke and mirrors trick, reassuring gullible ‘believers’ without changing realities.” SAIR noted,

Interestingly, JuD was consistently included in its list of terrorist organisations by the National Assembly since 2005, and this was used as grounds to ‘take control of’ many of the organisation’s madrassas and institutions, especially by the Punjab Government. The actual staff and management remained very much with the same individuals who controlled these institutions before the purported ‘take over’, but there was now a pretext that permitted the Government to directly and generously fund their activities.

This cover was blown in 2009, when the Lahore High Court quashed proceedings against Hafiz Muhammad Saeed on the grounds that JuD was not a banned organisation, since no notification to this effect had been issued by the Ministry of Interior or by the Punjab Government.

Nevertheless, the National Assembly blithely continued to include JuD in its ‘updated list’ of banned organisation in 2012, even as official funding to its many madrassas and institutions flowed on.

All this is a part of Pakistan’s strategy of deception, its careful calibration of policy as a ‘minimal satisfier’, responding reluctantly to meet the least of requirements where international – particularly US – pressure becomes unbearable, while insistently protecting the infrastructure, integrity and continuity of the many ‘sarkari jehadi’ groups it has long cultivated.

A December 20, 2014, Pakistani report indicated that JuD continued to remain “Enlisted under UNSCR 1267” since December 10, 2008. Despite this long and purported ‘ban’ JuD and its leader Saeed – who has a USD 10 million bounty placed on his head by Washington, find no reason to conceal their activities.

Terrorists have targeted important Government installations in the Punjab in the past. On September 6, 2012, three terrorists on a mission to target a nuclear power plant in the Ali Khel area of Bhakkar District, which borders Dera Ghazi Khan, were killed in a premature blast. A day earlier, on September 5, 2012, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Agency had reportedly intercepted a telephone call from the TTP, tapping into a conversation regarding finalisation of the strategy for attacks on nuclear installations in Dera Ghazi Khan. Again, on August 16, 2012, the Minhas Air Force Base at Kamra in Attock District, believed to be one of the centres where Pakistan has stockpiled its nuclear arsenal, was attacked by TTP terrorists. Nine terrorists, including six suicide bombers, dressed in military uniforms and armed with rocket propelled-grenades targeted the base, killing two Pakistan Air Force (PAF) personnel. All nine terrorists were killed in the retaliatory action.

Punjab has long been the centre of sustained radicalization, giving a durable base to radical Islamist and terrorist groupings. The burgeoning extremism that emanates from the power centre of Pakistan has put the country at risk. Regrettably, the principal response from the establishment has been of denial and the claim that the attacks inside Pakistan have roots ‘outside’. Even as Pakistan aggressively expands its weapon-oriented nuclear program, the home grown and nurtured terrorist outfits embark on a ferocious rampage, determined to destroy their own creators. The infrastructure of terrorism built by the civil-military leadership in the name of ‘national security’ has grown beyond containment, demonstrating its capacities by attacking the symbols of democracy and sensitive security installations in and beyond the Province.

* Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Ivory Coast Sees Low Voter Turnout In Presidential Election

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A calm vote, though with a limited turnout in respect to the past due also to logistic difficulties that caused numerous polling stations to open even hours late. This is how MISNA sources contacted in the Ivory Coast described Sunday’s presidential election.

More than the result, with exiting President Alassane Ouattara a favorite, there was strong concern over possible violence, after that of 2010 that left over 3,000 dead. A risk that so far appears to have been averted even in areas ore favorable toward Ouattara’s rival at the time, Laurent Gbagbo, currently on trial before the ICC (International Criminal Court). “Here five years ago there were clashes and victims, it is not an area favorable to Ouattara”, explained from Anyama, Father Eugenio Basso of the Society of African Missions (SMA). “The people yesterday instead followed the call of authorities to maintain calm, even though the turnout was different from polling station to polling station and many citizens after voting closed themselves in their homes from fear”.

A low turnout and calm also in Korhogo, not far from the border with Burkina Faso, an area traditionally close to Ouattara, theater in 2010 to unrest. “Also internal divisions made their mark. Gbagbo’s party divided into various currents and no clear indications arrived on a specific direction and also dissidents of Ouattara’s were orientated toward at least three candidates, two of whom withdrew before the start of the vote”, explained Father Marco Prada, a SMA missionary. What the people really want, stressed the missionary, “is peace”.

The first results of the vote are expected to be released in the next hours, according to the media, but the final outcome may not be confirmed until at least Friday, explained MISNA sources.

UN Report Highlights Women’s Role In Countering Terrorism – Analysis

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By Fabíola Ortiz

Two landmark studies are contributing to fostering global citizenship, by pleading not only for gender equality as such but also stressing the crucial role women can play and are playing in resolving conflict, overcoming violence, countering terrorism and bringing about peace and security.

According to data from the Institute for Economics and Peace in its 2015 Global Peace Index, conflict and violence are costing the planet 14.3 trillion dollars, or 13.4 percent of global Gross Domestic Product (Gross Domestic Product) equivalent to the combined economies of Canada, France, Germany, Spain and Britain.

“The world is less peaceful today than it was in 2008,” says the study. The indicators that have deteriorated the most, it adds, are the number of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), the number of deaths from internal conflict and the impact of terrorism. In 2014 alone, it is estimated, 20,000 people were killed in terrorist attacks up from an average of 2,000 a year only 10 years ago.

How much of over 14 trillion dollar costs have to be borne by women, when they are subordinated and become the targets of extremist ideologies, is not known. Nor does the 2015 Global Peace Index mention the number of women that fell prey to extremist ideologies.

But a global study released by the United Nations to mark the 15th anniversary of Security Council Resolution 1325 on October 13, highlights the important gains to be made by the greater empowerment of women in peace-building efforts.

The Resolution on Women, Peace and Security is the first declaration to link women’s experiences of conflict to international peace and security.

Radhika Coomaraswamy, the independent lead author of the comprehensive new report commissioned by the UN Secretary-General in preparation for the 15th anniversary review on the implementation of Resolution 1325, said that the study proves “beyond any doubt” that women’s “participation in peace processes sustains [those] processes for a much longer time” than efforts that exclude them.

Coomaraswamy said: “We recognize the world has changed a lot since 2000 and we need to revive and move this agenda forward with more proactive dialogues.” But there is an ambivalent situation in which the world and the UN have not understood how to deal with this situation.

She cited the report’s focus on prevention, the nature of early warning systems, armed and unarmed presences, and the need for dialogue. “Levels of military spending are high and the cycle of escalation must stop,” she noted, adding that force should only be used as a last resort; when dialogue is impossible.

“It is clear: the current models of making peace are not working,” stated UN Women Executive Director Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.

Between 1990 and 2000, just 11 percent of peace agreements signed included a reference to women. When the Security Council adopted Resolution 1325, this figure reached 27 percent of peace agreements that made reference to women. Of the six agreements resulting from peace talks or national dialogue processes supported by the UN in 2014, 67 percent contained references relevant to women, peace and security.

Nonetheless, only 9 percent of negotiators were women out of 31 major peace processes between 1992 and 2011. Just 3 percent of the military in UN missions are women, and the majority of these are employed as support staff. “This is unacceptable,” declared Mlambo-Ngcuka.

When women are at the peace tables, their participation increases the probability to achieve peace by 35 percent in the following 15 years.

The UN Women representative and the lead author of the 100-page global report agree that empowering women contributes not only to peace, but also accelerates economic growth and improves humanitarian assistance. “The progress from the last 15 years remains far too slow,” said Mlambo-Ngcuka emphasizing that at least half of 50 percent of leaders dealing with peace processes must be women.

Women are still at the bottom of the agenda, criticized Muna Rihani Al-Nasser, chair of the UN Women for Peace Association. Founded in 2008. The association is committed to the prevention of violence against women and girls, and strengthening the implementation of laws and policies against violence. It also fundraises for the United Nations Trust Fund to End Violence Against Women.

“We need to push governments to place issues of women on top of the agenda. We believe women have to be involved in discussions about the peace process. They are more into peace than men; we are 55 percent of the whole population,” she told IDN

Al-Nasser believes that there are currently so few women involved in working as police officials and judges or ranking among decision-makers against terror. “If we open the door, women will be engaged. They need to receive proper training and be treated as men in the sense of equal opportunities. We don’t want to sit and wait until the situation gets worse and worse. Terror is against humanity and we have to fight together, not only through governments; civil society should play a proactive role,” An-Nasser said.

Women in conflict-zones

When there is a conflict accompanied by terrorist attacks, women and children are often the most vulnerable ones and they suffer most, stressed Al-Nasser. This is evidenced in the global study with a special section about reality on women and girls who live in conflict zones, she said.

Half of the children of primary school age, who are not in school, live in conflict-affected areas. Girls, whose adjusted net enrolment rate in primary education is only 77.5 percent in conflict and post-conflict countries, are particularly affected.

In conflict and post-conflict countries, maternal mortality is on average 2.5 times higher. More than half of the world’s maternal deaths occur in conflict-affected and fragile states, with the 10 worst-performing countries on maternal mortality all either conflict or post-conflict countries.

The study also urges that funding should address projects that affect women on the ground. Al-Nasser is very emphatic against the terror committed against minorities by the self-proclaimed caliphate ISIS, particularly targeting the Yezidi communities.

It is estimated that there are around 3,000 women and children under captivity since ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) militants attacked and seized the Sinjar Mountains in the northern region of Iraq on August 3, 2014 – where this Iraqi ethnic and religious minority resides.

The Yezidis are predominantly ethnically Kurdish and are mostly living in the Iraqi Kurdistan (the provinces of Dohuk, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah). ISIS troops are violently attacking people who do not convert to Islam and are also promoting massacres to the non-Muslim Yezidis.

Pari Ibrahim is a young 26 year-old Law student belonging to a Yezidi traditional family who fled Khanke, province of Dohuk, in the 90’s. After the ISIS attacks against her community, she started the Free Yezidi Foundation based in the Netherlands, where she currently lives.

“At that moment, nothing was being done for the Yezidis. Many men were killed and girls were forced to become sex slaves. Their testimonies are horrible. Yezidi are either being killed or forced to convert to Islam. We don’t know how many were killed but there are a lot of mass graves in Sinjar within the area Isis is controlling”, she told IDN.

Inaccurate data estimates that between 5,000 and 6,000 women and girls were kidnapped by Isis. Since then, more than 2,000 were rescued, but there is a great proportion of victims there are still under this extremist group control.

“When girls come back out of ISIS captivity they are traumatized, and most doctors don’t know how to treat them. Girls come back and don’t receive any help. The worlds’ reaction until now is far from enough; there is no real attempt to stop this,” said Pari striving to draw focus on the need for global action.

Iran’s Goals Behind Show Of Missile Power – OpEd

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By Hossein Bozorgmanesh*

As the time to begin the implementation of Iran’s nuclear deal clinched in Vienna was drawing near and the Islamic Republic as well as six world powers were getting ready to put the deal into gears, Iran’s Defense Minister Hossein Dehqan announced on October 11 that the country has test-fired its new long-range missile, called Emad. Following the announcement, Iranian news agencies published photos and videos depicting the test firing of the Emad long-range missile. According to Iranian defense minister, the new missile is the first long-range missile developed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, which can be guided and controlled up to the moment it hits the target and is also capable of striking and totally destroying its targets with pinpoint accuracy.

Since the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, especially Paragraph 3 of its Annex B, has banned Iran from designing and testing any kind of ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead for a period of eight years, Iran’s missile test elicited reaction of American officials. For example, Mark Toner, the US Department of State spokesman, described Iran’s missile test as violation of the aforesaid Security Council resolution, which restricts Iran’s missile activities, and announced that Washington reserves the right to show a proportional reaction to Iran’s violation of the Security Council resolution. Also, Samantha Power, the United States’ permanent representative at the United Nations, said Iran’s measure was blatant violation of the Security Council Resolution 2231, claiming that the Iranian missile is capable of carrying nuclear warhead and that the United States is preparing a report on the test fire of the Emad missile to be submitted to the sanctions committee of the UN Security Council.

The measures taken by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) did not remain limited to testing the Emad missile. On October 14, Iran’s state-run television aired an exclusive footage of the IRGC’s missile bases deep underground, thus flaunting Iran’s missile capabilities one more time. The main motives, which may have prompted Iran to test the Emad missile and show its missile centers at the depth of a mountainous region can be enumerated as follows:

1. In view of the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, the Iranian Air Force is currently facing many problems for purchasing new warplanes and procuring spare parts for the existing jets as a result of which its ability to conduct offensive operations against positions of regional and transregional rival countries is quite limited. However, due to Iran’s self-sufficiency in designing, stockpiling and maintaining short- and medium-range missiles, the country’s missile units are much more efficient for conducting offensive operations against Iran’s enemies compared to ageing and limited fighter jets that are operated by the Air Force. In fact, one can claim that the IRGC’s ballistic missiles form the spine of Iran’s deterrence power and are considered a strategic tool to target key installations of regional and transregional rivals of Iran in the event of a possible military conflict. In view of the extraordinary ability of Iran’s missiles as a deterrent factor, Iranian officials are by no means willing to negotiate and reach a reconciliation with the West over the country’s missile power.

2. By testing more accurate and far-reaching missiles, Iran is trying to send this message to the United States that despite tough sanctions that have been imposed on its missile program, domestic specialists in Iran are able to upgrade and boost the country’s missile capabilities, thus, proving that sanctions imposed by the United States and the UN Security Council have had no practical effect on the missile capability of the Islamic Republic.

3. The Iranian government has no plan to leave management of its missile program to the United States. Iran has already succeeded through resistance and paying a hefty economic price to force the United States to accept its right to enrich uranium and maintain its nuclear know-how while having the initiative in managing its nuclear program. Also in Syria, despite unbridled support provided to groups opposing the Syrian government by the United States and its allies, Iran is still trying to manage the Syrian crisis and has been mostly successful in this regard despite all the problems it has faced and in doing so, it has prevented the fall of Syria’s capital city, which is of key and symbolic importance.

4. In view of the United States’ threatening rhetoric against Iran, which revolves around military option against Iran being on the table, the IRGC is showing off its missile power in the form of a powerful psychological warfare.

Given all the above facts, Iran is expected to not only conduct more missile tests and stage more extensive military drills in the future, but also put a special focus on space technology. By implementing its dual policy, Iran can not only be present in space and protect the country’s interests in commercial areas, but also boost its missile and deterrence power.

*Hossein Bozorgmanesh
Expert on Middle East Issues

Southeast Asia Trembles As Trans-Pacific Partnership Nears Completion – OpEd

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As the sun began to rise in Georgia’s capital Atlanta on October 5th, trade bureaucrats from 12 nations put pen to paper and came one step closer to finalizing the “21st century trade agreement” known as the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP will eliminate tariffs and barriers to trade between the US, Japan, Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, and Brunei Darussalam, putting 40% of the world economy under a consolidated economic framework.

But the TPP, despite being dubbed “the most progressive trade agreement in history,” would spell disaster for the environment and would presage a world in which corporations can sue governments for passing regulations to protect workers’ rights and the environment. TPP is a mammoth agreement that includes thousands of provisions, and one of the most menacing is the Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) system, which would effectively allow corporations to sue governments for “damages” if regulations affect their bottom line. But while there has been much media hype revolving around the controversial ISDS, the greater issue of the TPP rests with the lack of enforceable measures to protect signatory nations’ environments, thereby threatening local ecosystems and undermining dedicated efforts to fighting climate change.

A threat to Southeast Asia’s biodiversity

The environmental consequences of TPP will be particularly acute in Southeast Asia, which contains some of the worlds most climate vulnerable economies.

In Vietnam, air pollution is a national crisis. Hanoi is widely considered the most polluted city in Southeast Asia, with concentrations of carcinogens many times the levels considered “safe.” Such pervasive pollution has meant that a growing number of urban-dwelling Vietnamese are also falling victim to cancer and respiratory diseases. Thousands of cars and motorcycles are added to the congested streets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City annually, while public transportation remains antiquated, at best. Vietnam’s water sources are faring no better under the onslaught of industrial runoff. Less than 40% of the population has access to clean water supplies, and industrial pollution is rendering what water remains unsuitable even for agriculture.

Meanwhile, in Malaysia, illegal bauxite mining is expanding exponentially, driven by insatiable demand from China’s aluminum industry. Bauxite contains high levels of radioactive uranium, which is released during the purification process. Water supplies are being contaminated as illegal bauxite miners dispose of wastewater by dumping it into nearby rivers. Kuantan, the capital of Pahang province, has been especially hard-hit: the city sits at the mouth of the Kuantan river, which has turned red from the flood of heavy metals such as arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury and uranium. Samples taken the from the waters surrounding Kuantan by Malaysia’s Department of Fisheries and Department of Chemistry “revealed a toxic bouquet of heavy metals contaminating the water”. Despite these findings the government continues to stall on adopting the necessary environmental regulations, citing the income the industry brings to the state, despite the fact that these economic benefits are far outweighed by the costs to human health and the environment.

TPP’s cheerleaders say that the agreement includes the strongest environmental protections of any trade agreement and is a “gold standard” by which other such deals should be measured. Chapter 12 of the agreement is devoted to comprehensive environmental protections covering “regions from tundra to island ecosystems, and from the world’s largest coral reefs to its largest rain forest,” according to a summary obtained by the New York Times. However, unlike the protections it extends to investors via the ISDS, there are no enforcement mechanisms for the meager nod it makes toward defending the environment. Characterized by language such as “commit” to enforcing environmental protections, the current agreement is unlikely to encourage countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia to oblige by environmental provisions and promote a model of economic growth based on sustainable development.

The US-Peru Free Trade Agreement, which contains provisions to curtail Peru’s illegal logging industry, confirms these concerns. The agreement has done nothing to halt the devastation of Peru’s forests, end the illegal expropriation of indigenous lands or stop the murders of anti-logging activists, and there is no reason to think that the TPP’s paper-thin assurances of environmental protection will be more than window-dressing to please environmental groups and at-risk constituencies. Peru serves as a stark reminder that trade agreements put trade first and the environment, public health and indigenous people’s rights second-to-last.

More than a dozen environmental groups have voiced their opposition to the TPP, arguing that the agreement would hasten ecological catastrophe while padding corporate coffers. According to Sierra Club Director Michael Brune, “the TPP’s environment chapter might look nice on the surface but will be hollow on the inside, and history gives us no reason to believe that TPP rules on conservation challenges such as the illegal timber or wildlife trade will ever be enforced”. Sustainable economic development can only occur within a framework of stringent environmental protections. But the TPP has shown its true colors as “a frontal assault on environmental and climate safeguards” sacrificing sustainable growth in a narrow-minded pursuit of economic interests.

*Carrie Winters is a British environmental research officer currently residing in Singapore with extensive knowledge of the Southeast Asia region.


What Saves India From Suicide Attacks – Analysis

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By Manoj Joshi*

Earlier this month, Radio Free Asia revealed that nearly 80 people were killed by Uighur separatists in a September attack in a coalmine in the Xinjiang province of China. Beijing has yet to officially acknowledge the attack, which was carried out by terrorists armed with knives.

There have been similar attacks linked to Uighurs in recent years. On June 18, people had died in a similar attack with knives and bombs at a traffic checkpoint in the city of Kashgar.

In March 2014, an attack at the railway station of Kunming left 29 people and 4 attackers dead.

In recent months, the trend has manifested itself in similar Palestinian attacks on Israelis.

Given the strict policing, in China and Israel, the Uighurs and Palestinians have no access to either bomb-making material or guns, and so the use of primitive weapons like knives has become the weapon of choice.

The knife may be primitive, but it is deadly. However, its use does require a certain nerve, physical strength and training on the part of the attacker. In comparison, a suicide bomber merely has to approach the target and pull a trigger to cause mayhem.

There have been instances of suicide squads and attacks through history in almost all cultures in the military sphere. But something as primal as a knife has emerged as a new terrorist tactic which has rapidly spread in today’s wired world, just as suicide bombing did in the 1980s.

It became a tactic of choice in Lebanon, compelling the US to pull out from Lebanon.

In a parallel, the LTTE perfected the cult of suicide as it became prominent in the Sri Lankan civil war. Among the prominent targets of the LTTE were former prime minister of India Rajiv Gandhi and a slew of top Sri Lankan politicians, including president R Premadasa.

The key role in suicide attacks is played by motivators – mainly seasoned political operatives and in the case of Muslims, mullahs who use precepts of Islam to persuade young and impressionable people to go through the horror of a suicide attack.

They create an ethos where the attacker is hailed as a martyr and his/her family is raised in status among its peers.

Attacks on non-combatants, regardless of motive, are acts of terrorism and deserve the highest condemnation. But attacks that target troops and police personnel of countries who are involved in military operations in the attackers’ country or region are different.

There is a species of analysis which argues that there can be no ‘root cause’ of terrorism. Regardless of what a perpetrator does, retaliation using terrorist tactics is condemnable.

This does not quite work in the real world, where unresolved grievances are often the template on which terrorist attacks are built. As a first step towards countering terrorism, an effort must be made to understand this and tackle grievances relating to political and human rights in places like Xinjiang, Palestine, Chechnya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Kashmir.

In many cases, the issue is related to fears of a minority community that it will be swamped by the majority. Beliefs, often in economically-backward regions, that modernisation itself is an existential threat, cannot be tackled through military campaigns.

What the knifing campaign brings out is that harsh counter-terrorist tactics and total and intrusive surveillance cannot by themselves put an end to terrorist attacks.

Israel’s dilemma is the most manifest on this score. Relentless ferocity against Palestinian violence has not brought Israel the peace it has been looking for and is unlikely to do so.

In contrast, look at India. Some Muslims have a sense of deep grievance against the state on account of communal violence, in Jammu & Kashmir, many are motivated by separatism. Yet, India has not seen the kind of suicide bombing and desperate knife attacks that have motivated Muslim radicals elsewhere.

Terrorist violence that has rocked the country has often been motivated, directed and perpetrated by Pakistan. In any case, it peaked in 2008 and for the present it is at a low ebb, whether in Jammu & Kashmir, or elsewhere.

The reason is that Indian Muslims have a strong sense of Indian identity. In both their grievances and aspirations they think like their fellow Indian citizens, rather through any religious or sectarian prism.

That critical point of alienation which separates them from the mainstream and persuades them to wield a knife or a bomb has not been reached. At least, not as of now.

*The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi and a Contributing Editor of Mail Today

Courtesy: Mail Today, October 25, 2015

China’s Unilateral Action On South China Sea Threatens Regional Stability – OpEd

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China’s aggressive policy to build small islands on the South China Sea, ignoring territorial claims of fellow nations in the region, is hitting Pacific nations at a more visceral level, bringing anxiety over security.

Asia-pacific region remains a flashpoint as China is gradually trying to expand its control over the common sea territories in South East Asia. China’s creation of small military installations, including a 10,000- ft. landing strip, on various tiny atolls in the Western Spratly Islands seems to have ratted Washington to pay more attention on the issue rattling the region for quite some time.

The Pacific countries Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam and Brunei have long had their own competing territorial disputes in the South China Sea. To complicate the issue further, now China claims over hundreds of mostly uninhabited small islands, reefs, and rocks in the 1.4-million square mile South China Sea. Using traditional symbols to describe one’s position in a given situation, China says it controls the territory within a U-shaped maritime boundary, known as the 9-dash line and also referred to as “the cow’s tongue,” since the line appears in a large curvature far below the mainland.

China claims a whopping 90 percent chunk of the South China Sea. Its maps draw a “nine dash line” to mark its claims, some of which are nearly 1,500 kms from China but close to the coastlines of nations that ring the line, like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam. However, China’s claim does not stand up under existing international law, as laid down in the United Nations Law of the Sea. China enjoys such rights because its fishermen have cast their nets in those distant waters for centuries. Those claims give China “indisputable sovereignty” over the land features and waters inside the line, Beijing insisted in a document presented to the UN in 2009. That sovereignty is, in fact, disputed. The Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Brunei all claim some or all of the rocks, atolls, reefs, islands, and water that China says belong to it.

The Philippines has taken China to an international court at The Hague to challenge the legitimacy of the “nine dash line,” though Beijing has said it does not recognize the tribunal’s right to rule on the matter. Beijing evidently hopes that its recent land reclamation drive has changed the facts on the ground – or in the sea.

In order to showcase its prowess to neighbors, Chinese naval forces have already denied the Philippines access to explore oil and gas deposits and have harassed Philippine fishing fleets from places like the Scarborough Shoals, which sit about 100 miles off Philippine shores. The Chinese Coast Guard occasionally blasts Filipino fishermen with water cannons after they sail too close to the tiny island outposts. Such unilateral action by China could spiral out of control, or a misunderstanding” could result with a military clash, killing people.

Chinese engineers using dredgers have turned seven reefs and atolls in the Spratlys into artificial islands. Some are large enough to support garrisons, land fighter jets or to dock large naval vessels. Satellite images show cement factories and multi-story buildings being constructed and identifiable state- owned enterprises racing to make the new islands habitable. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC says these outposts would also help China “better safeguard national territorial sovereignty” and serve “military defense” purposes. Uses include helicopter bases for anti-submarine operations, aircraft refueling facilities, naval harbors and radar and missile installations that could one day help China’s air force impose an Air Defense Identification Zone over the South China Sea, as it has tried to do over the East China Sea in its dispute over island ownership with Japan.Those prospects worry both the US and regional powers.

In addition to boosting defense funding, Manila is preparing to reopen a former American naval base in Subic Bay where it will station new fighter jets purchased from South Korea. Repairs are also being made to a rusting World War II-era cargo ship now beached in the Spratlys that serves as the country’s most western military outpost.

China’s expansion and reclamation of islands in the South China Sea has escalated tension among Southeast Asian countries, and coordination between Japan and the Philippines may be perceived in Beijing as tacit support from Japan that the Philippines have rights to contested ocean territory. Japan, Asia’s second-biggest economy after China, receives a cut of the $5 trillion in cargo that passes through the shipping routes of the South China Sea each year.

The increase in activity in the region comes at a time when Southeast Asian leaders are jockeying for control over a swath of ocean that provides a tenth of the fish caught by global companies, Japan does not have any direct territorial interests in the South China Sea, but Japan’s own national security will be greatly affected by any instability and conflict there, making it a legitimate stakeholder.

Meanwhile, a Japanese surveillance plane with crew from the Philippines flew over areas of the South China Sea that the Philippines are in dispute with China over. The flight path taken by the Japanese plane was close to the Spratly Islands, which the Philippines claim, and where China is constructing man-made islands.

Japan and China also face a direct standoff over disputed sea territories.
The monopoly strategy of China, equipped with military prowess and a UN veto seat, has prompted an everlasting increase in military spending by the regional nations. The Philippines announced a 25 percent increase in military spending over 13 years aimed at bolstering naval defenses and effectively countering China’s claims.

As Asia’s super power China is pushing its agenda in the region, the Pacific nations are exploring diplomacy with the global super power USA, new defense options, and even international legal recourse to stop China from extending its sphere of influence just off their shores.

The Hague tribunal admittedly has no enforcement mechanism and Beijing has signaled it has no plans to uphold an international ruling. But the hearings may provide the Philippines additional arguments in future negotiations. A decision on whether the UN-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration has jurisdiction to rule comes this fall.

Obviously, UNSC‘s veto members have certain prerogatives, rights and advantages and China is taking full advantages of being a permanent member on the discredited UNSC. USA and other veto members or NATO have not taken the military steps on fellow veto members Russia and China.

Even as Russia, China’s senior strategic partner, annexed Crimea and reportedly moved into Ukraine its military to defend the ethnic Russian there, China also built seven artificial islands in the strategically sensitive and economically critical South China Sea, alarming its neighbors and risking confrontation with the US, because it believes it can get away with the nervy move and bolster an old desire for regional dominance.

The Chinese mainland lies nearly 1,000 miles away from its most distant claims. Beijing’s full claim over the sea would give it control of shipping routes touching half of all global trade through the region. Earlier this summer China said authoritatively that it would stop expanding the number of islands it is reclaiming but would continue to build in places where it has started work. China’s land reclamation efforts have taken place in an area that constitutes nearly 80 percent of its exclusive economic zone, a 200-mile radius that extends from national territory under the UN Law of the Sea.

China seems to have laid the groundwork to move its land power south … expanding the area of competition with the United States. In fact, China has wanted to do this for a long time. Now it has the dredging vessels, the money and the people. China tentatively turned in that direction in June, announcing that it had nearly finished its land reclamation drive.

China counts the South China Sea land reclamation project a success and it has strengthened its position in sovereignty disputes with its neighbors in Southeast Asia and it has projected its power into the heart of a waterway that sees five trillion dollars worth of trade each year.

The regional powers say China is causing a big and imminent threat to security” in Southeast Asia. The rise of China’s economic power has given rise to its military power and the regional rivals cannot in any way stop or weaken the economic muscle of Beijing.

The Philippines is also fighting back in court. A case at The Hague argued on July 13 sought to have an international court rule on the legality of China’s territorial claim. That case is causing a stir here and in Vietnam, off whose shores China parked an oil rig last year, bringing clashes at sea and at home between ethnic Chinese and Vietnamese.

The Philippine military is limited compared with China’s. But under a decades-old mutual defense pact, the US is obliged to aid its former colony if it is attacked. Yet how far Washington will take action in the sea is unclear. However, there are lingering doubt and unwarranted expectations in Manila. Filipinos have a tendency to place excessive or misplaced expectations in America’s commitment to protect the Philippines.

Vietnam is also looking for similar assistance to confront China on the high seas. Earlier this month, Hanoi’s Communist Party Chairman Nguyen Phu Trong, who met with President Obama in the Oval Office, told a forum in Washington that his country plans to expand military partnerships with the USA. The Pentagon said it will provide Vietnam with $18 million to purchase coast guard vessels.

Australia is considering sailing the sort of Freedom of Navigation patrols that the US navy runs regularly through the South China Sea to challenge any Chinese sovereignty claims it considers excessive. Even India has voiced concerns over possible threats to free navigation on major trade routes, including in the Indian Ocean.

The Chinese are acting as if they are stronger than they are. Caught in the middle of this big power maneuvering are a clutch of Southeast Asian nations that nurse territorial claims to rival China’s. Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei sell most of their exports to China, and China is a growing source of investment for them. Beijing’s recent moves have frightened their governments who are looking to Washington for regional balance.

As China’s interests and horizons expand, so will its impulse to exert physical control. China is moving beyond being a great power. The secretive and determined methods Beijing is using to turn rocks and atolls into potential military bases, and its bland dismissal of other nations’ claims to those specks of island turf, is causing worry beyond just the Pacific Rim.

China’s activities in the South China Sea have sparked doubts about its intentions. China now appears to have altered a long-professed policy of “peaceful rise” and shown another face in the Pacific, and in so doing has driven a number of Pacific nations towards an American embrace.

Regional powers expect China to make good on its promises that all the civilian facilities it builds will be open to all. It seems that increased international attention on China’s activities has slowed down its military buildup. When under strong international pressure, China tends to adjust its strategy. In recent days China has adopted a more conciliatory tone, saying it will build fishing havens, weather stations, and light houses on the islands, though the Philippines and its Southeast Asian neighbors are dubious.

The world’s perceptions on China being a sensible nation with its ‘peaceful rise’ policy” have changed. As China focused on building its economy and infrastructure it talked to neighbors about peace. But now China is trying to make peace effort as the subject of other countries to consider.

President Xi Jinping of China has emphasized closer trade and investment ties with Southeast Asia. The emphasis, called “One Belt, One Road,” is a centerpiece of his foreign policy, but China’s strategies on the South China Sea and on “One Belt, One Road” are in conflict.

Clearly, China’s unilateral action on South China Sea drives Pacific nations to seek US protection and Washington, still struggling with its Asia pivot agenda, might, as speculated by analysts, showcase an assertive stance on their behalf.

But will US, fighting many battles around simultaneously, show any real inclinations for spending extra energy in the region?

Kashmir: A Colossal Challenge – OpEd

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Common sense dictates one thing, but Kashmir moves in the other direction. Research, commission reports and articles, along with a plethora of propaganda (by media vultures), keep piling up on the human or social fallout of the K-issue. Plenty of discourses remain on the assaults (sexual or physical) on the vulnerable, the monster of women issues, the unaccounted killings from the past, the plight of the widows/half-widows, the disappeared, the continuing human rights abuses, the plight of people in border areas, the excessive military adventurism, etc. The main problem found in most of the above list is the problem of generality in conceptualizing the lack of consideration of communal, territorial and community identities. Specifically, the lack of political will to reach out for adequate redressel, as reports gather dust.

The illusory peace (peace maintained and understood by the power elite) actually has proven a deterrent to reach any positive solution so far (nonetheless, elections every six years continue the old agendas of Bijli, Pani and Sadak). While the perception of discrimination, or alienation, at the hands of the establishments and armed forces, the conflict and bloodshed doesn’t harm Kashmiriyat – or the politically defined secular identity and the unitarian ethos.

In this light, the Pandit exodus can be understood as a collateral damage of the conflict situation. The Pandits equally love their motherland and would love to live with Kashmiri Muslims and vice versa, politics apart. Thus disproving the much exaggerated claim that the conflict has uprooted our age-old social and cultural ethos – literally it has not. Kashmiriyat is intact despite a plethora of fissures.

The dominant discourses on K-Issue

The notion of Azadi (freedom), which was much stronger in the first decade of the conflict, commonly understood as secession from the Indian Union lost sheen when the public got fed up with the prolonged bloodshed and suffering at the hands of both the state and non-state actors. Now there is a resurgence in Kashmir’s new militancy. It is often observed by the media as led by Kashmir’s young rebels; or educated young militants, mostly local youth operating in South Kashmir. The idea of Kashmir’s accession to Pakistan was never subscribed by the sane masses, except for a few slogans during peak of the conflict. These were slogans such as “Rawaan Dawaan hai karvaan – Kashmir banega Pakistan,” “Kashmir ki Mandi – Rawalpandi,” “Pakistan se Rishta kya – La illa ha ilal lah” and many more.

The idea of autonomy, backed by some political establishments, is still considered a feasible option (the pre-1953 position). However, it is barely entertained by the Centre any more. The idea of dual currency like General Musharraf’s four-point formula erupted in the recent past. It was never hailed or even understood by the general public. While the Armed Forces kept working for Kashmir’s integrity with India, the opposing forces (armed guerrillas, both local and from outside) tried their best to destroy the integrity. These opposing forces operated with huge infiltration, encounters within the valley, attacks on Panchayat members, etc. They did so to make the secession possible, but failed due to tight security situation, the Mukhbiri (practice of secret informers of security forces), and, decline of people’s faith in militancy. For it was found that some among the militancy had started meddling with the domestic trifles of the people.

The new militancy is different. Today’s militant are aware of the failures of the previous militants. He is educated, active on social networking sites and much hailed by the masses. In early Nineties, some of the locals settled their personal scores with neighbors and others, by using militancy as their backup. Then after, the rise of infighting among militant groups, resulted in mutual killings. Soon the militant infighting peaked. But the story today is altogether different. The new militant youth brigade clicks pictures and shoots videos to reach the public and the media. They are more organized, integrated and prepared, than their previous generation.

Kashmir’s Perpetual Leadership Crisis

The problems of leadership in Kashmir, with legitimacy crisis of the public leaders, has taken a big toll. Those who represent the voice of the masses hardly come in talking terms. They hardly speak for the suffering masses; instead they throw their diktats from their castles. The firm stance maintained by the political establishment has proven a deterrent. For, it has led to ego clashes among the opponent leaderships. That is why talks never turn successful. The recent NSA level talks were yet another misadventure by both the countries, India and Pakistan, at the cost of people, who continue to die in border areas due to cease-fire violations.  Apart from the disturbed socio-political matrix, Pakistan’s consistent internal instability along with the lack of a sincere will over Kashmir has delayed Kashmir’s resolution.

The Conscious Cluelessness

The burden of the conscious cluelessness, i.e. letting the things go as such, along with the lack of intellectual framework, i.e. lack of solutions by think tanks, to resolve the conflict situation has painfully prolonged the Kashmir situation today. The fatalistic anxieties, extending beyond politics, have led to a social breakdown and an identity crisis. Today, among the masses, everyone is a leader for him or herself. A deep unease among the masses is visible. There is no loud cries for violent dissent, but the masses are still scared. There are a plethora of moral disagreements within. Whose Kashmir do they want to snatch from India? Where are the Kashmiris in this whole rights game? Who governs Kashmir in the true sense? Why does the centre delay the redressal of public grievances, time and again? Who are the youth of Kashmir?  And, are the youth a problem or an asset for the nation? Kashmir currently is nothing but a land of mass confusion and a saga of injustice. It is the social injustice, along with the insensitivities of past crisis mishandlings that have resulted in the new militancy.

Emotions and Inculcations

There prevails a lot of misunderstanding and miscalculation among the masses. For instance, rhetoric such as:

  • Kashmir is governed by the military,
  • The cultivable lands are grabbed by security forces,
  • Pandits will never return home,
  • Pakistan can liberate Kashmir within minutes,
  • Autonomy is useless,
  • Article 370 will be abrogated by BJP,
  • The draconian laws (AFSPA and PSA) cannot be revoked at all,
  • AFSPA is a holy book for armed forces,
  • Infiltration cannot be stopped because of the LoC situation,
  • Policing cannot be public friendly,
  • Kashmiri youth bulge is the big problem,
  • International community is seriously thinking about the Kashmir problem,
  • The World is only looking at Kashmir,
  • The United Nations is pressuring India to solve the Kashmir issue,
  • The US will finally favour Pakistan in solving the K-Issue.

Such ideas have gone penetrated deep down into the mass psyche. It is due to the constant propagation by vested interests along with ignorance, presentation of distorted facts, and arm chair sermons by so called “K-experts.”

The problems with political commands

The major political establishments have failed to show clarity, consistency, proper public-centered agenda and a clear resolve towards the Kashmir issue. Even the so called peace initiatives are not always aimed at peace. Besides the constant mishandling of the public aspirations, along with a plethora of broken promises by the political class; better governance, transparency, employment, development, safety and security, have so far failed to translate on the ground. Once elected, they fail to put the lingering K-issue to limelight. Bijli, Pani and Sadak are always the recycled issues on their agenda. Also those – the people of the government, activists and alike – who represent Kashmir on TV channels or debates are themselves a big embarrassment to Kashmiris and the K-Issue. For, they only talk emotions rather than facts. Some even abuse the anchors, reflecting their frustration, political immaturity, volatility and lack of knowledge.

Social Collective Gone Mishandled

Kashmir’s holistic social collective has gone mishandled since the conflict started. Due to institutional collapse during the peak of the conflict, along with fear and chaos, much went wrong. It was done by both the state and the non-state actors. Ideologically, there has hardly been any functional consensus among the stakeholders, be that from the separatist brigade or from the mainstream political players. It is primarily due to the power seeking greed. There exist a plethora of groups who claim to be working for the people. But they project narrow ideologies, non-feasible goals and pure economic self-interests. To further the ideological divide, visionless leadership, corrupt politics, biased media and lack of social justice, have collectively marred the possibility of peace.

Further disturbing the life of the common man there are the self-centered political philosophies, power hungry stakeholders, verbal diarrhea of issuing trivial statements, exhausting oppositions, and a practice of painting everything with religion, by vested interests and amateurs. Amid the collateral damage and the perpetual loss, every Kashmiri grieves at the surrounding destruction. They are currently in utter confusion about which brigade to follow or whom to avoid, in order to find a peaceful life. In addition, everyday issues such as sustenance, growing criminality, poverty and livelihood, encircles the people’s mind. They are fed up with the unceasing bloodshed and the uncertainty.

Of Myths, Tags and Blames

The dread of “agencies are after Kashmiris” is prevalent in Kashmir. The perception is that Kashmiris are unsafe outside Kashmir and that every Kashmiri is being spied or monitored by lots of security agencies, both inside and outside of the Valley. Another myth is that the international community thinks seriously on and about Kashmir. People living in their imaginary world believe the astrological predictions about the certain coming of Azadi. As for tags, Kashmiris are quick to attach tags to fellow Kashmiris. For instance, many rationalist and balanced writers are being branded as [Indian] agents of various agencies. The label of pro-Indian is directly understood as anti-Kashmiri. To them one can be either a Kashmiri or Indian. Another tag is the Qoum kay Gaddar, a treacher, for the persons who either support the status quo or believes in rationality.

There are many other tags. People who bore the brunt of the conflict castigate and ridicule the prime instigators who recruited the youth to cross the border for training as Jihadis in early nineties. The main indoctrinators motivated the youth to cross the border, but spared their own sons and relatives. Instead, they sent their young sons outside the Valley for education and good jobs. (In the local lexicon they say – Gareeban Hiend/Lukkhend Maarnavekk, Pannen Soozekk Nebarr; – idiomatic translation – they sent the sons of the poor across the border to die but retained their wards/relatives for higher studies outside the Valley). The scene has altogether changed now. Today, youngsters from well off families are also joining militant ranks.

Post Script

There is a dire need to resist negative transformation and emerging violent youth sub-cultures. It has to be done through perception management and sincere work on the ground. The working groups must not be blind to the social domain. They should stop seeing Kashmir exclusively through a security prism, which always projects it as a monster of terrorism, which it never was.  Instead, the friends of Kashmir must increase interaction with public and relevant stakeholders, to devise paths to sustainable peace. We also have to stop eulogizing counterinsurgency successes and narratives at LoC. We have to focus on internal issues vis-à-vis crime and disorder, to produce actual successes. The focus is important for the sake of masses, particularly the people who are trying to lower the trust deficit between the system and the masses. Ideologies that are inconsistent and self-destructive, need to be expelled. If we want Kashmiri youth to grow and prosper then we need to stop using them as smart gadgets for disposal, whereby they can be used for indoctrination, provocation, religious manipulation, to distort facts and history, to label and to stereotype.

Kashmiris must realize that they cannot change the grand political narratives merely by provoking emotions. They must prefer peace over chaos. They must bid adieu to indoctrination industry and let the people’s choices prevail; instead of the blind following that is mere personality based. The governing establishment has to refrain from spreading terror in the name of law and order, by over regulating the masses, which causes social strain. The labeling of people must end. Developing a strong social cohesiveness must be the agenda of priority. Finally, a politically feasible solution of the K-Issue must be given due attention. For, political stability is a must precondition to social development. The lack of social justice has to be seriously addressed. Otherwise the common man will be further ostracized, and may keep attempting to shake the very bases of the issues at hand.

This article appeared at South Asia Journal and has been slightly edited.

Johnnie Walker Leads Scotch Recovery In Travel Retail’s Top 100

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The top 10 travel-retail spirits brands remained almost unchanged since last year with Diageo’s Johnnie Walker Scotch whisky brand still dominating at the top at 2.25m cases. The brand added 47,000 cases in 2014.

Finlandia dropped out of the top 10 mainly due to a decline in sales in Russia leaving room for Scotch brand Famous Grouse to move up into the top 10.

Indeed, the most notable trend in the sector during 2014 was the strong recovery in Scotch whisky volumes: 217,000 cases of Scotch were added, accounting for 40% of all additional spirits volumes in the travel-retail channel. In 2014 Scotch recovered from declines in 2013 to surpass its 2012 levels, as 16 of the Scotch brands in the top 100 grew in volume, led by Johnnie Walker.

The brand’s growth came from Africa and the Middle East, and recovery in Asian markets. According to Diageo, “Across GTME (Global Travel Retail Middle East), Diageo brands gained share particularly in whisk(e)y, led by Johnnie Walker in Global Travel Asia, where premium-and-above variants drove the brand’s net sales growth.”

In the travel-retail market spirits volumes grew by 2.5% in 2014, adding 537,000 nine-litre cases to reach 22.1m cases in total. While growth rates remain slow – by comparison volumes have increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% since 2010 – it represents an improvement on the 1.4% increase seen in the previous year.

The full top 100 travel-retail spirits brands list is exclusive to the IWSR Magazine October issue.

Source: The IWSR Magazine - October issue
Source: The IWSR Magazine – October issue

Suspect Found Behind Killing Of Young Right Whales

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The baby whales suddenly began dying in 2005. And continued for several years running.

Scientists had never seen anything like it around Peninsula Valdes, an important calving ground for southern right whales on the coast of Argentina, or anywhere else for that matter. The average number of right whale deaths per year at Peninsula Valdes jumped more than 10-fold, from fewer than six per year before 2005 to 65 per year from 2005 to 2014.

Even more striking, 90 percent of the deaths from 2005 to 2014 were very young calves fewer than three months old. The mystery killer appeared to be targeting the nearly newborn, sometimes more than 100 calves of the endangered species each year.

Now researchers have closed in on a prime suspect: Blooms of toxic algae, the same kind that sometimes force the closure of clamming and other shellfish harvesting.

In a new paper published in Marine Mammal Science, NOAA Fisheries and NOAA Ocean Service scientists and others from the United States and Argentina found that the number of whale deaths at Peninsula Valdes closely track the concentrations of the toxic algae Pseudo-nitzschia. The higher the density of Pseudo-nitzschia, some species of which can produce a potent neurotoxin called domoic acid, the more young whales that died. When the density of algae dropped, so did the number of deaths.

The correlation is not definitive proof that the algae caused the deaths, but is strongly suggestive.

“The numbers hinge at the same point and have the same pattern,” said Cara Wilson, an oceanographer at NOAA Fisheries’ Southwest Fisheries Science Center and lead author of the paper. “What’s unusual about this is how long these bloom events continued to reoccur. You don’t usually have deaths every year but the calves died in high numbers every year from 2007 to 2013.”

The finding has significance beyond Argentina, since it demonstrates that some of the largest creatures in the ocean can be vulnerable to algal blooms that are projected to increase with climate change. One of the largest harmful algal blooms of its kind hit the West Coast of the United States earlier this year following close to a year of unusually warm water temperatures offshore.

Scientists are also studying whether harmful algae could have contributed to a recent spike in the deaths of adult whales in Alaska, which NOAA has declared an Unusual Mortality Event.

The study of whale deaths in Argentina demonstrates the challenges of tracing the impacts of harmful algal blooms, also known as HABs. Scientists know that whales may directly consume the toxic algae as they filter ocean water for food or may be exposed indirectly through their prey, which can also feed on the toxic algal cells. But the blooms can be spotty, with high concentrations in some places but not others. Scientists also have a difficult time obtaining blood or tissue samples from stricken whales for testing. Only a very few Argentinian whales tested for domoic acid carried detectable levels of the toxin.

That may be because the toxin is water soluble and whales eliminate it through their urine and feces. Feces from adult Argentinian whales did show that they had been exposed to the toxin, although not necessarily at high enough concentrations to kill them based on data from previous studies of other right whale populations.

But calves may be different, said Victoria Rowntree of the Southern Right Whale Health Monitoring Program and an associate research professor at the University of Utah who also coauthored the new paper. Studies on rodents found that levels of toxins that do not harm adults can cause developmental effects in fetuses. While adult whales may excrete the toxin, fetuses may be bathed in it and might then be born in compromised condition, Rowntree said.

“If this happens on land you might see that something is wrong,” she said. “But with whales in the water, seizures are rarely observed and are probably fatal.”

Given the lack of solid evidence the new study does not definitively prove that the toxic algae caused the spike in deaths of whale calves. But it does offer strong circumstantial evidence, and that puts researchers in a better position to understand the possible impacts of future algal blooms, said Gregory Doucette, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, and also a coauthor of the paper.

“For us, the more opportunities we have to try to examine that relationship, to link up these mortality events to potentially toxic blooms, the better we can assess the possible effects,” said Doucette, who has studied the effects of harmful algal blooms on marine mammals. “The toxins may be causing non-lethal effects that are not fatal by themselves but affect the animals’ survival.”

Judicial Appointments Debate In India: Need For Integrity And Transparency – Analysis

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The latest ruling by the Supreme Court of India against the government’s project of the National Judicial Appointments Commission has further stirred a public discourse on the best means to have the best judges. Seeing the polarised debate on the independence of judiciary versus the supremacy of parliament as a false dichotomy, the author suggests that the best touchstone is the transparency of each constitutional institution.

By Vinod Rai*

India’s Constitution has laid down the method of appointment of the Chief Justice of India, and judges of the country’s Supreme Court and the High Courts at the State-level. The Constitution specifies that the President shall make these appointments after consulting the Chief Justice of India (CJI) and the judges of the Supreme Court and the High Courts as the President may deem necessary.

This process of appointment has been examined and reinterpreted by the Supreme Court many times between 1982 and 1999. However from 1993, in a process mandated by the Supreme Court, a collegium of judges, comprising the CJI and four of the most-senior judges of the Supreme Court, have made recommendations to the President for the appointment of judges. Such recommendations were more or less binding on the government of the day. All that the government could do was to merely seek a reconsideration of the recommendations made by a collegium. And if the collegium were to unanimously reiterate its earlier recommendation, the appointment would have to be made accordingly.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Government had sought to change this process and introduced a constitutional amendment bill, the National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) Bill. This Bill sought to replace the collegium system with an independent commission called the NJAC. The NJAC comprised (i) the CJI (ii) two other most-senior judges of the Supreme Court, (iii) the Union Law Minister, and (iv) two eminent persons to be nominated by the Prime Minister, the CJI and the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, the powerful Lower House of Parliament. This amendment was passed by both Houses of Parliament and received the assent of the President. No sooner had the assent been granted, a spate of Public Interest Petitions (PILs) were filed in the Court challenging the amendment.

Many commissions and bodies have faulted the working of the collegium system of appointment of judges. Some of the choices of judges that have been made through this procedure have attracted a great deal of adverse attention. It was in this context that the amendment was introduced. Besides being passed by both Houses of Parliament, twenty State legislatures have also passed this amendment. This is an indicator of the level of disagreement between the executive and the judiciary on the process of selection.

The PILs on the setting up of the NJAC were heard by a five-judge bench of the Supreme Court. The Court has now delivered a 1,000-page judgement on the issue. The Court has held that any involvement of the executive in the appointment of judges impinges on the independence of the judiciary. The NJAC has been seen by the Court as an infringement of the principle of separation of powers between the executive and the judiciary, which is a basic feature of the Constitution. The judgement states that the collegium, said to have lacked transparency and promoted nepotism, will be “fine-tuned” to obviate such criticism in the future.

The verdict has further observed that the presence of the Law Minister in the panel will impinge on the principle of independence of the judiciary. The minister’s presence, along with the prime minister’s say in the selection of two eminent persons, who could veto any decision, would be a retrograde step. The Court has also observed that it would be “disastrous” to include persons with undefined qualifications in the selection panel.

The verdict has sparked a whole barrage of opinions on both sides. There are of course some ardent viewpoints too. Some senior political functionaries have seen this verdict as “a setback to parliamentary sovereignty”. On the other hand, the other set of opinions faults the collegium system of selection as being opaque and as lacking in transparency. In fact, India is the only country where judges get to select judges. This system is very different from that which prevails in other democracies such as United Kingdom, the United States of America or Canada. In each of these countries, the legislature or eminent persons outside the judiciary constitute the selection system. That process seems to have worked to the satisfaction of the judiciary, the executive and the public at large in those countries with strong and deeply democratic traditions.

Much can be said about the merits and demerits of each system. In an ideal system, where there is trust and faith among each pillar of democracy, there would have been no scope for any disagreement. However, the track-record of both institutions – the executive and the judiciary in India – leaves much to be debated. The executive is invariably a major litigant in quite a few cases coming up before the courts. There have also been open accusations of the government attempting to place on the bench judges who have been alleged to be “pliable”.

On the other hand, the collegium is seen as opaque and a bit of an “old boys’ club”. It has also thrown up appointments whose credibility has been questioned. Some appointments have indeed undermined the people’s faith in the judiciary. In fact, among the five judges on the bench itself, one judge has argued for the acceptance of the NJAC. He has faulted the collegium system as being the exclusive domain of the judiciary, and argued that the executive and civil society must have a say in the matter. He has added that it has no accountability and there have been instances where it has failed. This judge goes on to observe that the Court cannot claim to be the sole protector of the people’s rights and has referred to the instances where the Supreme Court had failed to live up to the citizens’ expectations in preserving liberties.

The judge has specifically drawn attention to the awkward situation created in the appointment of Justice P D Dinakaran and a Madras High Court judge. Another judge on this bench had earlier made observations on the functioning of the collegium and had stated that “deserving persons had been ignored wholly for subjective reasons, social and other national realities were overlooked, certain appointments purposely delayed so as to benefit or to deny such benefits to the less patronised..”. This is a serious indictment of the court by its own.

The judgement has started a very serious debate. Such a debate seems essential too. The issue, I believe, is not so much that of the independence of judiciary or the setback to the supremacy of parliament. In fact, if either of these institutions had been functioning along the lines expected of them, the need for either to seek protection of its ‘independence’ or ‘supremacy’ would never have arisen. Credibility gets established by deeds and performance, not by self- proclamations. Institutions craft their own credibility – it is in their accountability. It is in their transparent functioning. It is by the trust that they generate from the public. Neither the NJAC system will redeem the people’s faith in the parliament or executive, nor will the collegium system absolve the judiciary of the kind of observations it has been subjected to. What matters is the sheer display of each institution’s ‘above the board’ performance. The people are the true and ultimate judges of the performance of democratic institutions. Whilst ‘independence’ and ‘supremacy’ will be the basis of arguments advanced by the respective bodies, it is they themselves who can earn the people’s trust by their own performance. The NJAC can do it. The collegium can do it. Systems are merely structures. The integrity and credibility of persons who operate the systems make the difference.

About the author:
*Mr Vinod Rai
is Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), an autonomous research institute at the National University of Singapore. He is a former Comptroller and Auditor General of India. He can be contacted at isasvr@nus.edu.sg and raivinod@hotmail.com. The author, not ISAS, is responsible for the facts cited and opinions expressed in this paper.

Source:
This article was published by ISAS as ISAS Brief 397 (PDF).

Global Population Aging: The 21st Century’s Formative Market Opportunity

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An aging global population is bringing to the fore dramatic economic opportunities, as well as powerful arguments for healthy and active ageing. A new white paper from the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Aging examines how this powerful market driver is shaping the 21st century. The paper also officially launches the council’s Guiding Principles for Age-Friendly Businesses, to help align workplaces and workforces with current age demographic realities.

The paper, How 21st Century Longevity Can Create Markets and Drive Economic Growth describes how the so-called silver economy can be a driver of economic growth at national, regional and global levels, and offers tips for businesses hoping to create an age-friendly environment.

“The World Economic Forum has been a leader in thinking about and shaping the powerful arguments for healthy and active ageing, and the role business can play in driving solutions to address this trend,” said Arnaud Bernaert, Head of Global Health and Healthcare Industries at the Forum. “This paper offers new perspectives in its positioning of ageing’s impact on business and markets, and will also help guide our engagement with NGOs, governments, global institutions, academics and think tanks across society on how to enable population ageing to be a positive contributor to social and economic life.”

The white paper highlights a number of forward-thinking companies that are seizing the ageing opportunity. These include firms recognizing the market potential for products and services geared towards people over 60, and other companies that have observed that creating and maintaining a better work environment for older workers brings benefits to all employees. The case studies and business principles behind each are rooted in three dynamics:

  • The demographic is newly formed. According to United Nations estimates, there will be 1 billion people aged 60 years or over by 2020, reaching 2 billion by mid-century. At the same point in time, and for the first time ever, there will be more people over 60 than under 15, according to the Global Coalition on Ageing.
  • The group controls the purse strings. With better economic futures and a boom in employment opportunities, older people have become conspicuous consumers and active savers.
  • The group creates new demands. Entirely new markets for products and services are opening up across all sectors.

“The realities of living longer are built in for generations to come, so we must extend our thinking to the global corporate community, with a focus on how the continued engagement of this older demographic can yield economic growth,” said Derek Yach, Chairman of the Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Ageing. “We applaud the companies that have already taken action, and we hope to further these efforts through our Guiding Principles for Age-Friendly Businesses as aspirational goals for all employers, big and small, globally.”


Big Brother Is Watching You In The Suburbs

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Video surveillance, police presence and walls that stop people from socialising in the streets. In France this is reality for the residents of suburbs that are upgraded. In a new thesis, a researcher from LiU shows that the people who have been tasked to improve these suburbs see them through their own filter of suspicion.

In the autumn of 2005 violent riots broke out in the suburbs of Paris after two young people died in a police chase. Since then, similar events have occurred throughout Europe, and in May 2013 there were similar problems in Husby, a Stockholm suburb, after a man was shot dead by a police officer.

”Most researchers agree that riots and confrontations between the police and young people are not solely a result of a rise in juvenile crime,” said Christophe Foultier, doctoral student at the Department of Social and Welfare Studies (ISV) at Linköping University.

In his thesis, entitled Regimes of Hospitality, Foultier shows how local development strategies increase isolation and social stigmatisation in vulnerable areas. In the strategies, which can include everything from renovation to employment programmes, he sees a conflict.

”On the one hand, the projects aim to get the residents involved, they try to get them to participate. On the other hand the residents are often viewed with suspicion by the same project. In a sense they are seen as a security threat, and in some cases this determines what gets built.”

A result of the conflicting messages is that the residents become sceptical to all the strategies, programmes and projects that try to get them involved. That is, the desire for security contributes to increased isolation and social stigmatisation.

Before Christophe Foultier started his doctorate he participated as a sociologist in a project to upgrade a Parisian suburb. At close range he saw how the needs of the residents were deprioritised in favour of other interests. For instance, 40 per cent of the residents were children – but those in charge didn’t want to build playgrounds. This aroused his interest in researching the issue.

Foultier investigated how local development strategies affect residents in two suburbs outside Paris, Le Franc-Moisin-Bel-Air and Les Cinq Quartiers. He saw that local politicians, housing companies and other local stakeholders built a society according to their own images of threat and security – an image often founded on racist preconceptions. As a result, the residents’ home environment features video surveillance of public spaces, digital locks, magnetic locks, police and fences and walls that prevent people from gathering. What security means to the people who live there is not a consideration.

”I interpret it as a question of power and a way to control the suburbs. Academics as well as politicians need to listen to this knowledge, because our suburbs are in a state of crisis – both in France and in Sweden.

In a new project, Christophe Foultier is going to investigate how local development strategies, and how they affect two Swedish suburbs. This will then be compared with the French examples.

Iran: Plummeting Car Sales Hit Auto Parts Sector

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The head of Iran’s Association of Car Parts Manufacturers says auto manufacturing has shrunk by 50 percent and 50,000 workers in the sector have lost their jobs.

In an interview with IRNA, Sasan Gorbani said: “190,000 people were employed in the auto parts sector, but the decline in car production has caused more than 50,000 job losses in this sector.”

He added that several car parts factories are now running at 50 percent of their capacity.

The Tasnim News Agency also reported earlier that daily car sales in Iran have fallen to fewer than one thousand. Iran Khodro has reportedly gone from selling 3,400 cars per day in May to just 910, with 63,000 cars now sitting in its warehouses.

The government has announced improved rebate programs to stimulate stronger auto sales.

South Africa’s Deputy President Ramaphosa Visits Mexico

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South Africa’s Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa is headed to Mexico to consolidate political and economic relations between the two countries.

Deputy President Ramaphosa is on a three-nation visit that saw him visit Sweden and Cuba.

In Cuba, he led a high-level government and business delegation to strengthen bilateral, political, economic and trade relations.

During the visit, Deputy President Ramaphosa paid a courtesy call on President Raul Castro and held bilateral discussions with Vice President Miguel Díaz-Canel.

Deputy President Ramaphosa reiterated South Africa’s support for the establishment of diplomatic relations between Cuba and the United States of America and called for an end to the blockade against Cuba and the removal of all punitive measures that have been directed against the Cuban people.

Outlining the objectives of the visit to Cuba, Deputy President Ramaphosa said South Africa was keen to hear about the process that Cuba initiated to meet the challenges of the 21st century, particularly since the 2008 global financial crisis and the decline of commodity prices, which have brought economic hardship to many developing countries.

Deputy President Ramaphosa said Cuba has not only “contributed to our freedom by supporting our struggle and fighting side by side with us, but you continue to improve the lives of our people by training doctors and providing scholarships for over 80 students annually to study medicine in Cuba.

“Apart from doctors, Cuba has provided 45 engineers deployed in four provinces in collaboration with the Department of Human Settlements. Our Department of Water and Sanitation also has 35 Cuban engineers deployed across the country,” said Deputy President Ramaphosa.

He also used the opportunity to pay his respects at the Jose Marti Monument at the Plaza de la Revolucion and the Oliver Tambo Bust at the Park for African heroes.

He also had an occasion to interact with the management of the Latin American School of Medicine where a number of South African students are being trained to become doctors.

In addition, Deputy President Ramaphosa visited the Cuban Combined Cycle Gas Plant to study how Cubans cope with energy challenges as well as the Cuban Molecular Immunology Centre including the local Policlinic and the Military Historical Park Morro in Havana.

Deputy President Ramaphosa is being supported by the Deputy Ministers of International Relations and Cooperation Luwellyn Landers, Trade and Industry Mzwandile Masina, Water and Sanitation Pam Tshwete, Basic Education Enver Surty and Deputy Minister in the Presidency Buti Manamela.

Spain Wraps Up Mission In Afghanistan

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Saturday night, at the Forward Support Base in Herat, the flag of the Spanish contingent deployed in this town in the west of Afghanistan for the last 10 years was lowered for the final time. This act, presided over by the Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, practically brings the operations of the Spanish Armed Forces in this Central Asian country to a conclusion, where they have been present since January 2002.

On the various missions carried out consecutively over the last almost 14 years, a total of 29,861 military personnel from the three Armed Forces and the Guardia Civil have taken part, with 102 fatal casualties (including two civilian interpreters). As a whole, the operation in Afghanistan has been the main challenge taken on by the Spanish Armed Forces in terms of international missions, in a difficult logistical and operational situation in a complex theatre more than 6,000 kilometres from Spain for a contingent of up to 1,500 professional personnel.

Some 450 Spanish military personnel remain in Herat tasked with completing the dismantling of installations that are not due to be handed over to the Afghan authorities. The staggered withdrawal of men and resources starting back in the summer will conclude on 27 October, at which time the only personnel that will remain in Afghanistan are those deployed at the General Headquarters of the Resolute Support Mission, in the capital Kabul. It turned out that some 90 Spanish military personnel are using the same plane as used to transport the Vice-President of the Government on her return to Spain.
Government and society expresses gratitude

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and her entourage arrived in Herat on a flight from Madrid in the late afternoon of Saturday, after being forced to stop over in Turkey for almost 12 hours due to a technical problem to the aircraft.

Accompanied by the Chief of the Defence Staff, General Fernando García Sánchez, and of the Army, General Jaime Domínguez Buj, she was received upon her arrival by the Spanish Ambassador to Afghanistan, Emilio Pérez de Agreda, as well as by the Italian General, Mauro D’Ubaldi, head of the Forward Support Base in Herat and Colonel Francisco José García Parra, head of the Spanish contingent.

Once at the Spanish camp, Sáenz de Santamaría presided over the lowering of the flag. In a speech, she highlighted that almost 30,000 Spanish military personnel have taken part in this mission, carrying out some 28,000 patrols, traveling more than 3 million kilometers and carrying out over 1,000 weapons inspections and 14,000 deactivations of mines and other explosive ordnance.

Sáenz de Santamaría expressed the government’s acknowledgement and that of all of Spanish society, for the work carried out by the armed forces, not only during the course of their 14-year presence in Afghanistan, but also on other international missions on which 2,576 Spanish military personnel are deployed .

In reference to the mission that is now coming to an end, the Vice-President of the Government pointed out that “we cannot forget that we came to a war that has required a tremendous effort and sacrifice on the part of the Spanish military personnel deployed in this theatre of operations through to the bitter end. 100 of our best men and women, she added, have given their lives to defending the stability and a better future for Afghanistan. They have left a debt of gratitude that we will never be able to pay back”.

After lowering the flag for the final time in Herat, it was presented by the head of the Spanish contingent to Sáenz de Santamaría, who then travelled back to Spain.

Violence In Jerusalem: Israel’s Options – Analysis

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By Asher Susser*

No matter how the current wave of violence evolves, it is abundantly clear that those who talk of variants of a one-state solution can now have a foretaste of what it would really look like. What awaits the “one-staters” is a mini civil war eventually degenerating into a bloodbath the likes of which we are presently witnessing in various multi-ethnic, or multi-sectarian countries of the Middle East, where peoples and sects are tearing each other to shreds in an inflammatory atmosphere charged with religious bigotry and extremism.

Israel must draw back from the dead end to which the religious and ultra-nationalist right has led the country, from the assassination of Rabin, the undoing of Oslo, and the relentless expansion of the settlement enterprise since Oslo, deliberately designed to make a two-state solution impossible.

The Palestinians are not innocent victims in this story. It takes two to tango and they have their share in the dissolution of the Oslo process. When more moderate governments were in power in Israel, the Palestinians, whether under Yasir Arafat or Mahmud Abbas, squandered real opportunities to arrive at some form of settlement, by taking positions that made genuine historical compromise on a two-state solution unattainable. Even when finally offered more than 90 percent of the West Bank, plus land swaps with Israel proper and the partition of Jerusalem by Prime Ministers Ehud Barak in 2000 and Ehud Olmert in 2007-8, the Palestinian leadership balked. The positions of the Palestinians on Temple Mount (denying any Jewish connection, historical or contemporary, whatsoever) and especially on refugee return to Israel still puts an agreement on end-of-conflict way out of reach.

This Palestinian failure to reach historical compromise and the rapid resort to violence, especially the campaign of indiscriminate suicide bombings in the early 2000s that killed over 1000 Israelis in the streets, malls, busses and restaurants in towns and cities throughout the country, played a key role in decimating the Israeli peace camp and undermining its credibility in the eyes of the Israeli public. The impasse, therefore, is not only the doing of Netanyahu and the Israeli right, as so many in the international community and the media would have us believe.

But in circumstances such as these, it is most unlikely that Israel and the Palestinians would be able to negotiate an agreeable end to their century-long conflict. A negotiated resolution has not been in the cards for well over a decade. Perhaps it never was. But, the status quo is also untenable. So what are Israel’s options?

Since its foundation Israel has distinguished between two types of security: Basic Security and Current Security. Basic Security is concerned with the preservation of the very fundamentals of the Zionist enterprise, that is, the preservation of Israel as the democratic nation state of the Jewish people. Current Security is about the day-to-day maintenance of the personal safety and well-being of the Israeli people. At times Israel’s needs of Current Security conflict with the country’s requirements for its long-term Basic Security. Israel’s continued occupation of the West Bank and Gaza was justifiably seen as an asset in maintaining Israel’s Current Security. However, this very same occupation has eroded Israel’s Basic Security by undermining it Jewish and democratic character as well as its international legitimacy, and thus had an undeniably negative affect on Israel’s long-term survivability.

Israel must make a choice between being the democratic nation state of the Jewish people, alongside a presumably unfriendly or even belligerent Palestinian state, and creating an oppressive one-state reality in which Israel gradually loses both its democratic and Jewish character and its international legitimacy as well. The violence of the last few weeks has shown yet again that Israel faces two models of conflict management with the Palestinians. The one is the West Bank-Jerusalem model of occupation and settlement which entails constant repression, provocation and counter-provocation, violence and counter-violence. The numerous attacks on Jews by Arabs and Israeli punitive measures and retaliation, are beginning to acquire the character of a civil war, crossing over the green line as well, into Israel proper, as the Arab citizens of Israel join in the protest, and the attacks too, in identification with their brethren in Jerusalem and the West Bank. The other is the model of Gaza where Israel seeks to disengage from the Palestinians and employ deterrence as an alternative to occupation. The Gaza model is obviously not flawless, mainly because deterrence is not everlasting and has to be replenished periodically.

The Gaza model mainly poses problems on the level of Current Security to Israel, even if on occasion it has more strategic dimensions, like the temporary closure of Israel’s one and only international airport last summer, under the threat of rocket attacks. The Gaza challenge has various defensive and offensive solutions and it does not pose an existential threat. The West Bank-Jerusalem model, on the other hand, is a Basic Security problem. It offers no reasonable or realistic solutions and is an insufferable threat to Israel’s long-term survivability, which all the rocketry from Gaza is not. Israel must choose between these two models. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon did so ten years ago, when he disengaged unilaterally from Gaza, and he was right.

Even though the Gaza model was clearly not about peacemaking Israel must similarly disengage, unilaterally if necessary, from the West Bank and Arab residential areas of Jerusalem. This should be done in a phased process, over a period of a few years, rolling back settlements first and the Israeli army only later, to maintain as much security as possible in the process of disengagement. Unilateral withdrawal is not about peace-making, but about creating a two-state dynamic and maintaining Israel’s raison d’etre as the legitimate, democratic nation state of the Jewish people. That in itself might not bring peace but it could provide a radical improvement to the current situation of utter hopelessness and it might offer an eventual possibility for some form of peaceful co-existence.

Even if it does not, it is still in Israel’s own self-interest to disengage if it wishes to escape the one-state dynamic, which clearly has a trajectory that does not serve Israel’s long-term well-being. The demographic balance is tilting against Israel in the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea (Israel, the West Bank and Gaza), where the Jews are close to losing their majority. (Some dreamers on the right may believe that withdrawal from Gaza, which is just over one percent of historical Palestine, will satisfy someone somewhere). In the continuing conflict Israel loses automatically in the court of international public opinion, irrespective of the precise circumstances, because of the occupation of the West Bank and the accompanying settlement project.

Israelis rightly complain of a prejudicial double standard that applies to Israel as it does to no other country. But the complaints are not heard by anyone except the Israelis themselves. More than anything else it is the settlements that give Israel’s critics all the ammunition they need. It doesn’t matter if the settlements are new, old or otherwise, nor if they are legal or not. It is their very existence, augmented by settler violence against their Palestinian neighbors, from the uprooting of trees, the defacing or damaging of Muslim places of worship, to arson and murder, which all fly in the face of the logic of partition and co-existence that has had a destructively corrosive impact over the years on Israel’s international legitimacy.

Historically, Israeli legitimacy has rested on two pillars. One was the recognition by the international community after the Holocaust that the Jews, the downtrodden of the earth, deserved a state of their own in their historical homeland. The other was the acceptance by the Jews of partition and a two-state solution for Palestine, as proposed by the UN in 1947. Israel’s international acceptance has been rooted from the day of its foundation in the acceptance of the principle of partition. The Jews deserved a state of their own, but so did the Palestinians. The passage of time has weakened the collective international memory of the Holocaust and the post-1967 occupation has distanced Israel from the principle of partition. Israel’s legitimacy has withered commensurately.

Netanyahu likes to compare himself to Churchill and he aspires to outdo Ben Gurion as Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister. But Netanyahu, unfortunately, is neither a Churchill nor a Ben Gurion. He is an exceptional orator like Churchill, but Churchill’s true greatness was not in speechmaking but in his perception of reality and his ability to make momentous decisions accordingly. Netanyahu has a flawed assessment of reality and calculatingly avoids momentous decisions at every turn.

Ben Gurion strictly observed three policy principles: Keeping Israel a Jewish majority state (and he was therefore an instinctive and immediate opponent to the post-1967 occupation of the West Bank); preserving Israel’s international legitimacy; and maintaining its firm relationship with the US. Netanyahu has undermined all three. Ben Gurion went down in history as the greatest of Israel’s founding fathers. As opposed to Ben Gurion the nation-builder, whose brilliance was in seizing the moment to make timely, historical and courageous decisions, if Netanyahu does not change course he might one day be remembered as the man of indecision and inertia who failed to recognize or seize the moment and thus seriously endangered Israel’s survivability as the legitimate nation state of the Jewish people.

About the author:
*Asher Susser is Professor Emeritus of Middle Eastern History and the Stanley and Ilene Gold Senior Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University, and is presently the Stein Professor of Modern Israel Studies at the University of Arizona. He is author of Israel, Jordan, and Palestine: The Two-State Imperative (Brandeis University Press, 2011) and The Rise of Hamas in Palestine and the Crisis of Secularism in the Arab World (Crown Center, 2010).

Source:
This article was published by FPRI. This essay is a “companion essay” to Hussein Ibish’s “The Tragedy Of The Palestinians – Analysis“.

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