Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73659 articles
Browse latest View live

Iran Urges OPEC To Cut Output

$
0
0

By Fatih Karimov

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has asked the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce production by at least 1.3 million barrels per day (mbpd).

Ahead of the upcoming OPEC meeting, Zanganeh has written a letter to OPEC chief Abdallah Salem el-Badri, announcing that the cartel members should be committed to the ceiling level, which had been set at 30 mb/d, Mehdi Asali, an Iranian oil ministry official said, Mehr news agency reported Dec. 1.

It is time for certain OPEC members to cut their output, ahead of lifting sanctions against Iran, said Zanganeh’s letter.

Iran expects the sanctions to be lifted at the first month of coming year, as it is adhering to the terms of a July nuclear deal clinched between Tehran and the World’s six major powers.

OPEC is scheduled to meet in Vienna on Dec. 4.

Asali, who is Iranian oil ministry’s secretary for OPEC affairs and relations with energy organizations, said that the Iranian minister has informed the organization that Iran will revive its pre-sanction output and the OPEC members should open space for the Islamic Republic’s output.

Iran’s crude output and export was decreased by 4.2 mbpd and 2.6 mbpd as a result of the sanctions, the official said, adding Tehran will return to former output level as soon as sanctions are removed.

The OPEC members’ total crude oil output has dropped by some 256,500 barrels per day to 31.382 mbpd in October compared to September, the organization said in its latest monthly report.

Iran increased crude oil production (excluding condensates) by 4,700 barrels per day in October, compared with the previous month. The country’s oil output reached 2.874 mb/d per day.

Iran’s oil output was about 3.7 mb/d in 2011, but it has decreased due to western sanctions imposed on Iran in mid-2012.


Cuba’s Dire Need For Foreign Investment: What It Means To Its Developing Economy – Analysis

$
0
0

By Thomas Costello*

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 and Cuba’s subsequent hardship while transitioning to a more decentralized economy in its “Special Period,” Cuba has implemented significant economic changes. While preserving socialist gains accomplished during the Revolution, it has continued to develop elements of capitalism first employed by Fidel Castro in response to severe economic times in the 1990s. Cuba has undergone a series of recent transformations in its ability and willingness to attract the kind of foreign investment that is essential in developing and sustaining economic growth.1

Until Fidel Castro began decentralizing state economic control by allowing inflows of foreign capital and other outside investment, the Cuban economy contracted drastically. After the Soviet Union began to dissolve in 1989, Cuba suffered an immediate 75 to 80 percent drop in foreign exchange receipts as Soviet subsidies dried up.2 Per-capita income contracted by 34 percent from 1990 to 1993 because of a lack of foreign investment and access to international financial institutions, coupled with a hardened U.S. trade embargo.3 Since that Cold War period, Cuba has continuously opened up to foreign investment and has used it to develop struggling elements of the economy. As the Cuban government’s control of the economy has gradually diminished, the island nation has seen tremendous improvements in its ability to increase and sustain economic growth.4

However, Cuba’s economy is still lagging. According to the Brookings Institute, decades of international experience have shown that strong growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is necessary for achieving development, and this has been a significant issue for Cuba. Cuba’s GDP has grown only about 1.8 percent a year over the past two decades, a rate that has made Cuba one of the lowest-performing countries in Latin America.5 The Cuban communist newspaper, Granma (March 31, 2014), quoted a government commission acknowledging that “no country today has successfully developed without foreign investment as a component of its political economy.”6

So the government has sought to attract a larger pool of foreign investors, but to lure them it needs to make more compromise by gradually reducing restrictions. 

Recent Steps by Cuba: Putting Mexico and South Africa on Board

Mexico:

Cuba has not fully utilized its economic capabilities, abundant natural resources, and strong diplomatic relations, all of which can be improved by foreign investment. President Raúl Castro has sought to ensure that Cuba puts itself in the best light possible to entice investors.

In November he visited Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto in an effort to strengthen diplomatic relations and create conditions allowing for increased Mexican investment in Cuba. This could help both countries as each has much to offer in terms of natural resources and willing investors.

Federico Martinez, president of the Mexican construction firm Tradeco, is one potential investor who sees tremendous opportunities in Cuba. Martinez says Cuba “needs lots of infrastructure: highway infrastructure, communications infrastructure, hydraulic infrastructure” and can offer “many opportunities for companies.”7

Improved and modernized infrastructure would be highly beneficial to Cuba and potential investors alike, by cutting transaction costs and contributing to the competitiveness of their goods and services.8 Underdevelopment in Cuba’s infrastructure is evident in its railways and coastal transport, technologies and systems for storage and handling of freight, public transportation, and in cellular telephones and data transmission.9

By gradually decentralizing government control in these areas and opening to private investors, Cuba can be significantly more competitive in attracting and sustaining foreign investment. President Castro recognizes the value of Mexican investors willing to contribute to his country’s potential by building badly needed infrastructure. His recent negotiations with Mexico to create favorable conditions for more Mexican companies to invest in Cuba is a step in the right direction.

South Africa Expresses Interest in Investment

South Africa has expressed similar interest in expanding its investment in Cuba. South African Deputy Minister Mzwandile Masina led a group of investors and exporters in November on a mission to Havana and expressed pleasure with Cuba’s potential to absorb trade and investment.

“I can safely say to the people of South Africa in general and the businesspeople in particular,” he said, “that Cuba is fast developing and the time to come and invest in this country is now. A great number of good opportunities have been identified that people across the world want to take advantage of. Our companies should not be left behind.”10

South African Vice-President Cyril Ramaphosa said he expects exchanges between businessmen of both countries to help promote and diversify economic cooperation in new areas of mutual benefit.11

Mesina said his government would help South African companies establish joint-ventures and partnerships in Cuba. Opportunities there including tourism, construction, infrastructure development, agro-processing, renewable energy, transportation and healthcare are all on the radar for South Africa as it continues to be seen as a significant future business partner. Cuba has strong political ties with South Africa, and creating increased long-term investment would be an incentive to both countries to build on the foundation already created. 

FIHAV and a Vital U.S. Presence

To further attract foreign investment, the Cuban government has recruited investors through its successful International Trade Fair, or FIHAV. More than 1,500 enterprises from 57 countries and territories around the world attended the Havana event in early November. More than 350 Cuban companies showcased what they can provide, mostly in health care, food processing, electronics, civil engineering, construction, and services.12

Most important was the U.S. presence at the fair. Among the companies attending, Sprint and PepsiCo showed great interest in doing business in Cuba. Because of President Barack Obama’s gradual chipping away at the embargo by creating a telecommunications exemption, Cuba has signed a roaming agreement with Sprint Corporation “to allow customers…to easily make wireless connections when in Cuba,” according to Computerworld, which noted that the agreement followed a similar one with Verizon.13 This signifies considerable progress between the two countries, but the only partially reduced embargo still hampers U.S.-Cuban trade and investment. Provision of services by U.S. companies like Sprint would represent a big opportunity for both countries. Not only is the United States a world leader in the supply of advanced technologies and a major source of investment flows, but the fact that its companies account for nearly a quarter of world imports makes it a crucial potential partner for Cuba.14 Cuba realizes the importance of large U.S. investors, but many compromises are necessary for significant progress in fully ending the commercial, economic and financial embargo.

Cuba would benefit immensely from the lifting of barriers like restrictions on U.S. companies’ ability to invest and receive imports from industries outside of agriculture and medicine and to make incentivizing credit terms on imports and exports. But until it satisfies provisions of the Helms-Burton Act Congress is unlikely to lift the embargo. Cuban obligations under the 1996 act include transitioning to a democratically-elected government, reimbursing for expropriations made during the Cold War, and releasing all political prisoners in Cuban jails.

Although President Raúl Castro has claimed that Cuba has made sufficient progress, Washington is insufficiently impressed. This was exemplified in October when a Cuban-initiated resolution in the UN’s General Assembly to end the embargo was again rejected by the United States.15 (The vote was 191-2.) President Obama favors ending the embargo and has taken consistent steps to diminish it, but Congress hasn’t budged.

Republicans in Washington, however, are likely to yield at least slightly to growing pressure from American businesses looking to get a foothold inside Cuba.16 Most notably are the American farmers eager to sell their products to a Cuba in desperate need of foreign agricultural imports. U.S. Wheat and rice farmers urged the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry in April to create legislation to lift the embargo, noting its interests favoring abolishment could create immense potential for their industries. Terry Harris, senior vice-president of marketing and risk management at Riceland Foods, Inc., told members the United States “could regain 20 to 30 percent of the Cuban rice business within two years, or an estimated 90,000 to 135,000 tons of new demand for U.S. farmers.” “We would anticipate the U.S. share of the market would exceed 50 percent within five years and could reach 75% or more within 10 years,” he said.17

Kansas Wheat Commissioner Doug Keesling, a farmer himself, referred to the U.S. government’s excessive entanglement in Cuban-U.S. trade relations and its tendency to deter businesses from Cuba. He says U.S. “regulations and statutes … make U.S. wheat too expensive to compete with wheat from Canada and the European Union in the Cuban market…. The law requires that exporters receive cash before they’re allowed to unload in a Cuban port.”18 Requiring cash hand over fist in Cuban ports makes it difficult for businesses because most Cuban purchasers do not have sufficient cash and must take out loans, which the Cuban government prevents Cuban businesses from doing with U.S. lenders.

American industries in general have a significant interest in doing business with Cuba but have yet to show sufficient influence with Congress over the embargo. Even if it were lifted, the Cuban government would most likely impose increased regulation on competition, which it has repeatedly avoided in the past. It is willing to give some ground to private enterprise by decentralizing parts of the economy to accommodate foreign investment but insists on retaining Cuba’s socialist nature.

Will this principle prolong the embargo’s existence? Washington has left the ball in Havana’s court by making significant reductions in the embargo and has eased diplomatic relations by reopening its embassy in Havana. It now awaits Cuba’s response. Hanging in the balance are opportunities from one of Cuba’s largest and most potentially beneficial trade partners.

Wooing major U.S. companies

Although Cuba recently created incentives for foreign investment, many investors are still uncomfortable about the potential risks of doing business in Cuba entails. The Cuban government’s control of markets through its state-generated monopoly on Cuban goods over imports and exports and its dual currency that allows for manipulation of wages both create disincentives for efficient plant production. Its control of hiring of workers and of manufacturing plants’ operations capacities limits the country’s attractiveness for foreign investors.19

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), a firm specializing in commercial real estate and investment management and ranked by Forbes as one of the 500 highest-earning U.S. companies, addressed these concerns in a report, noting that “there are a lot of impediments in the way” and that “it is like a double-edged sword: there are opportunities but with a very high risk.”20

The privately held shipping company Crowley Maritime Corporation, of Jacksonville Florida, which has done business in Cuba for 14 years, is also unsure about the future business climate there. Jay Brickman, a Crowley vice-president, posed these questions for potential investors seeking to do business in Cuba: “How guaranteed is your investment? Are you sure that you can make profits? Are you sure that there will be no confiscation of your industry?”21

From its recent creation of the Mariel Zone, which serves as a favorable location for businesses in the export market, to the promulgation of a new investment law increasing economic incentives for companies seeking to do business in Cuba, much vital change has already taken place in the Cuban economy. Observers continue to ask how much leeway Havana will give to foreign investors as it continues to embrace many of its socialist policies.

Another key question is how Cuba will maintain solidarity with other Latin American nations while moving forward as a developing economy in the world. For the past ten years Cuba has been a member of the ALBA-TCP (Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of our America), originally created to help members confront the power of developed countries such as the United States by providing an alternative to the conventional capitalist trade models of privatization and globalization.22 Cuba’s ALBA-TCP membership is another indication of its reluctance to be dependent on global capital markets that do not further its revolutionary goals.

President Raúl Castro emphasized at the Summit of the Americas in April that Cuba is “advancing towards a process of Latin American and Caribbean integration through CELAC, UNASUR, CARICOM, MERCOSUR, ALBA-TCP, SICA and the Association of Caribbean States.” Cuba’s solidarity with member states of these organizations, he maintains, “highlights a growing awareness of the need to unite to ensure our development.”23

Cuba, however, must look beyond its relationship with ALBA-TCP nations if it is to continue to develop. Most of its external financing is derived from ALBA-TCP countries — particularly Venezuela, which is enduring a significant economic and political crisis and whose continued favorable terms on oil exports to Cuba could diminish.17

Cuba could use help from international financial institutions (IFIs) including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Inter-American Development Bank to transition to a more stable economic model capable of attracting foreign investment.24 IFIs hold enormous potential for Cuba and would enable it to more easily enter global markets and provide it with the assistance and the adoption of international best practices such as modernizing agriculture, improving communications networks, and enhancing its tourism sector.25

In the past, Cuba has rejected these institutions and interventionist agreements, mostly on the basis that their practices are incompatible with its socialist ideology. Over the next few months Cuba will show whether it maintains its solidarity with other nations in the ALBA-TCP while keeping itself open to opportunities present in IFIs and other foreign investment — and if so, how. As the United States continues to soften or eliminate sections of the embargo and as President Obama’s tenure comes to end, Cuba must make decisions while there is momentum. Washington and Wall Street would like to see Cuba gradually open itself to global capital markets and show interest in IFIs, which could benefit Cuba in the long run and add needed momentum to end the embargo.

Importance of Foreign Investment as Cuban Trade Continues to Develop

Among the challenges Cuba faces as it continues to develop its economy, it needs to develop its agricultural sector for the country to become less reliant on imports from other countries. This would help Cuba use its workforce more efficiently and provide its people with more and better jobs, according to the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE).26 To lessen a dangerous dependence on a faltering Venezuelan economy, Cuba must continue to open up joint ventures in extracting petroleum from on-shore and off-shore blocks. It must also develop its own technology and infrastructure to ease communication among its citizens and between them and foreigners and enable interaction through social media. Although these challenges can be overcome through foreign investment, that will be difficult to overcome as long as the Cuban government is overly resistant to U.S. interference.

As Cuba defends its socialist revolution while decentralizing some aspects of its economy, it will have to show how it can use its people and natural resources to maximum advantage to obtain the capital necessary to develop itself as a nation. This goal is achievable by Cuba’s becoming less dependent on trade with ALBA-TCP countries. In gradually opening itself to global capital markets with the help of IFIs and improving diplomatic relations by negotiating favorable trade terms with countries outside of ALBA-TCP, Cuba can obtain the necessary foreign investment to develop and sustain economic prosperity.

*Thomas Costello, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

  1. “Cuba’s Economic Change in Comparative Perspective.” Brookings.edu. Ed. Richard E. Feinberg and Ted Piccone. Brookings Institute, Nov. 2014.
  2. Carleton University: Ritter, Archibald R. M. “Cuba’s Economy During the Special Period, 1990-2010.” Carleton University, 12 Oct. 2010.
  3. Dolan, Brendan C. “Cubanomics: Mixed Economy in Cuba during the Special Period.” Emory.edu. Emory University.
  4. Brenner, Philip, Marguerite Rose Jimenez, John M. Kirk, and William M. Leogrande, eds. The Revolution under Raul Castro: A Contemporary Cuba Reader. Second Edition ed. London: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015.
  5. “Cuba’s Economic Change in Comparative Perspective.” Brookings.edu. Ed. Richard E. Feinberg and Ted Piccone. Brookings Institute, Nov. 2014.
  6. Brenner, Philip, Marguerite Rose Jimenez, John M. Kirk, and William M. Leogrande, eds. The Revolution under Raul Castro: A Contemporary Cuba Reader. Second Edition ed. London: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015.
  7. Graham, Dave. “Mexico Targets Business Boom in Cuba as Castro Visits.” Reuters.com. Reuters, 6 Nov. 2015.
  8. “Cuba’s Economic Change in Comparative Perspective.” Brookings.edu. Ed. Richard E. Feinberg and Ted Piccone. Brookings Institute, Nov. 2014.
  9. Ibid
  10. “Deputy Minister Mzwandile Masina on Investment Opportunities in Cuba.” Gov.za. South African Government, 5 Nov. 2015. Web. 18 Nov. 2015.
  11. “Cuba and South Africa Explore Business and Trade Opportunities.” Carribbeannewsnow.com. Caribbean News Now, 26 Oct. 2015.
  12. Trotta, Daniel, and Jaime Hamre. “Sprint Signed a Major Deal with Cuba.” Businessinsider.com. Reuters, 2 Nov. 2015.
  13. Hemblen, Matt. “Cuba Trade Embargo Fate Hinges on Havana Human Rights Progress.” ComputerWorld.com. ComputerWorld, 2 Nov. 2015.
  14. “Cuba’s Economic Change in Comparative Perspective.” Brookings.edu. Ed. Richard E. Feinberg and Ted Piccone. Brookings Institute, Nov. 2014.
  15. Nichols, Michelle. “Amid Renewed U.S.-Cuba Ties, U.N. Condemns Embargo for 24th Year.” Reuters.com. Reuters, 27 Oct. 2015.
  16. Taylor, Guy. “Cuba Trade Embargo Fate Hinges on Havana Human Rights Progress.” WashingtonTimes.com. Washington Times, 8 June 2015.
  17. Sjerven, Jay. “Wheat and Rice Growers Urge Congress to Lift Embargo on Cuba.” Foodbusinessnews.net. Food Business News, 22 Apr. 2015.
  18. Senate Hearing: “Opportunities and Challenges for Agriculture Trade with Cuba Hearing.” Senate.gov. United States Committee on Agriculture Nutrition and Forestry, 21 Apr. 2015.
  19. Feinberg, Richard. “Cuba’s Foreign Investment Invitation: Insights into Internal Struggles.” Brookings.edu. Brookings Institute, 21 Nov. 2015.
  20. Torres, Nora Gamez. “Cuba Investments Are a High Risk for U.S. Companies. Miamiherald.com. Miami Herald, 22 June 2015.
  21. Hamre, Jaime. “U.S. Companies Drawn to Cuba, Unsure If Profits Will Follow Reuters.com. Reuters, 6 Nov. 2015.
  22. Backer, Larry Cata, and Augusto Molina. “Cuba and the Construction of Alternative Global Trade Systems: Alba and Free Trade in the Americas.” Journal of International Law 31.3 (2010).
  23. Castro, Raul. “Speech by Raúl Castro at the Summit of the Americas.” Liberationnews.org. Liberation: Newspaper of the Party for Socialism and Liberation, 17 Apr. 2015.
  24. Vidal, Pavel, and Scott Brown. “Cuba’s Economic Reintegration: Begin with the International Financial Institutions.” Atlanticcouncil.org. Atlantic Council.
  25. Ibid
  26. Luis, Luis R., and Stephen Kosack. “Cuba’s Growth Strategy Features Human Capital and Foreign Investment: May It Work?” Ascecuba.org. ASCE: Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, 19 Apr. 2014.

Carter: DoD Intensifies Islamic State Fight, Urges More International Support

$
0
0

By Cheryl Pellerin

The US Defense Department is quickly adapting to fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and is urging the international community to step up the pace of its contributions to the fight, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Tuesday.

The secretary, joined by Marine Corps Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified before members of the House Armed Services Committee on U.S. strategy for Syria and Iraq.

“The president had directed us to intensify and adapt the military campaign before the [Nov. 13] Paris attacks,” Carter told the panel. “We continue to accelerate our efforts in the wake of Paris, and we are urging others to do the same, because those attacks further highlighted the stake that not just the United States, but the world, has in this fight.”

Adapting to ISIL

Carter said specific elements of the adaptations to ISIL include deploying a specialized expeditionary targeting force, expanding U.S. attacks on ISIL infrastructure and revenue sources, improving ways to find and eliminate ISIL leadership, and organizing a new way to leverage established infrastructure.

Tens of thousands of U.S. personnel are operating in the broader Middle East region, and more are on the way, the secretary said.

Some of the most advanced U.S. air and naval forces are attacking ISIL, he added, and U.S. troops advise and assist ground operations in Syria and Iraq.

“On President [Barack] Obama’s orders and the chairman’s and my advice, we’re sending special operations forces personnel to Syria to support the fight against ISIL,” Carter said.

Expeditionary Force

In coordination with the Iraq government, the department is deploying a specialized expeditionary targeting force to help Iraqi and Kurdish peshmerga forces and to put more pressure on ISIL.

“These special operators will, over time, be able to conduct raids, free hostages, gather intelligence and capture ISIL leaders,” the secretary said. “That creates a virtuous cycle of better intelligence, which generates more targets, more raids and more momentum.”

Raids in Iraq will take place at the Iraqi government’s invitation and will focus on defending Iraq’s borders and building Iraqi security forces capacity, he added, and the special operators will be in a position to conduct unilateral operations into Syria.

Expanding U.S. Attacks

The department also significantly expanded U.S. attacks on ISIL infrastructure and revenue sources, especially oil revenue, Carter said.

“Over the past several weeks, because of improved intelligence and understanding of ISIL’s operations, we’ve intensified the air campaign against ISIL’s war-sustaining oil enterprise, a critical pillar of ISIL’s financial infrastructure,” he told the panel.

Coalition forces have destroyed fixed facilities, such as wells and processing facilities, and nearly 400 ISIL oil tanker trucks, Carter said. “There’s more to come, too,” he added.

Raids using targeted airstrikes and the specialized expeditionary targeting force are helping to improve the ability to eliminate ISIL’s leadership, he said.

Leveraging Infrastructure

Because the threat posed by ISIL and similar groups spans regions and U.S. combatant commands, Carter said, the department is organizing a new way to leverage infrastructure already established in Afghanistan, the Levant, East Africa and Southern Europe into a unified capability to counter transnational and transregional threats.

“An example of this network in action was our recent strike on Abu Nabil, where assets from several locations converged to successfully kill this ISIL leader in Libya,” he said. “As that strike shows, there’s a lot of potential here, but to do more, we need to be creative and consider changes to how the Defense Department works and is structured.”

Carter said the department is constantly looking to do more in the fight against ISIL, but the world must do the same.

International Contributions

“The international community, including our allies and partners, has to step up before another attack like Paris,” the secretary said. France has been galvanized by the attacks in its capital, Britain is debating expanded airstrikes, Italy has made important contributions in Iraq, and Germany is making more contributions, he noted. . All countries, including the United States, must do more, he added.

Turkey must do more to control its border, and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have been preoccupied by the Yemen conflict after joining the air campaign in the early days, Carter said. Russia, which publicly committed to defeating ISIL, has largely attacked opposition forces rather than ISIL, the secretary told the House committee.

“It is time for Russia to focus on the right side of this fight,” he said.

American leadership is essential, he added, but contributions from other nations will boost the combat power the department can achieve using its own force.

“We also need to leverage our allies’ and partners’ relationships and capabilities to effectively work with Syrians and Iraqis, who in the end must expel ISIL and restore effective governance,” the secretary said.

Myanmar: A Long Road After The Grand Triumph – Analysis

$
0
0

Realism and pessimism have somewhat similar meanings in Myanmar. An optimistic interpretation of the 08 November 2015 parliamentary elections in the country is that of a step forward towards a full-fledged democracy. To a realist, however, the election was a landmark event but one that does not essentially constitute a turning point in history. The election results, in fact, reinforced what was always known – the National League for Democracy’s (NLD) popularity and the military’s position as an illegitimate usurper of power.

While the NLD’s popularity got translated into votes, the reality is that the unpopular military, which has appropriated a minority yet crucial position in the parliament, will remain the power centre, shaping the contents and pace of reforms. However, even with these limitations, the progress towards democracy would actually depend on whether the NLD views itself as an inconsequential majority or a crucial bloc that can indeed transform the popular support it enjoys into becoming an agent for change.

The NLD won 77 per cent of the seats, providing the party majority in both houses of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, the Myanmarese parliament. Victory for the party was secured in all the regions and five districts barring two states, Rakhine and Shan. The military represented by the Union Solidarity and Development Party won only 117 or 10 per cent of the seats. The victory allows the NLD to form a government in February 2016 and then pick a president of its choice, other than its leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is still barred from becoming president by a controversial article in the country’s 2008 constitution. Somewhat reinforcing the reality, Suu Kyi declared that the massive victory would place her above the president.

The NLD-led government’s positioning of self vis-a-vis the all-powerful military will have a lasting impact on the course of democracy in Myanmar. The overarching dominance of the military includes not just 25 per cent of the total number of seats reserved for it in the parliament, but also the constitutional authority of the commander-in-chief who gets to appoint serving military officers as ministers of Defence, Home, and Border Affairs. Although the prospect of the military not transferring power or overthrowing the NLD government in future is remote, the civilian government in Myanmar will be constrained by the reality of the military being the de facto sanctioning authority on key decisions.

With that sort of an authority reserved for the military, the civilian government is not only programmed to remain perpetually weak but also will be a natural absorber of criticisms for all the unpopular and controversial decisions made by the military.

Suu Kyi wishes to overcome this difficulty by forming a national reconciliation government that includes the military. She is scheduled to meet the Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces, Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing on 02 December 2015. Although the military has accepted the verdict and has promised a smooth transition of power, Gen Hlaing continues to maintain that the transfer of power would remain linked to “the stability of (our) country and people understanding the practice of democracy.” No regret has been expressed for the military annulling the 1990 elections which the NLD had won. The military continues to believe that the country is not yet ready for a civilian rule.

Given these limitations, the task for the NLD would be to demonstrate its capacities as a change agent, beginning with relatively less contended areas including economy. The economic reforms process must become inclusive and beneficial for a vast majority of people who continue to remain untouched by the process so far.

The NLD also has to emerge as a representative of both the dominant Bamars as well as the ethnic minorities. The latter have consistently been denied their rightful place in politics. This also includes the Rohingyas, who were denied the rights either to contest the elections or even to cast their votes. Similarly ending continuing clashes between the military and the ethnic armies representing the Shans, Kokangs and Kachins; and arriving at a nation-wide ceasefire agreement with a number of ethnic insurgent groups who are yet to sign the pact, remains a critical requirement. Only eight groups, mostly the minor ones, had signed the agreement on 15 October 2015 and Suu Kyi chose to be absent from the signing ceremony despite an invitation from the government.

In the past years, Suu Kyi’s political posture has oscillated between defying the government and wooing the military to effect the necessary constitutional reforms that would allow her to partake in the elections and become the president. While remaining a critic of the economic reforms process on occasions, she has praised the military as her “father’s army.” She has remained mostly silent on the Rohingya issue and has maintained an ambiguous stance on the peace process with the ethnic groups even though the NLD periodically reiterates its in-principle support for national reconciliation. Such a position has done little to bolster her standing as a national leader. If there was ever a suitable time to break free from this specter of ambiguity to a clearheaded statesman like approach, it is now.

This article was published at IPCS

Nearly 900 Iraqis Killed In November

$
0
0

More than 2,000 people in Iraq have been killed or sustained injuries due to terror attacks, violence and armed conflicts during the last month, a United Nations report says.

According to a Tuesday statement by the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), a total of 888 Iraqis were killed and 1,237 others wounded across the war-stricken country in November.

“The civilian death toll stood at 489 dead, while the number of wounded civilians reached 869, including 49 wounded from the federal police. The losses in the ranks of the armed security forces amounted to 399 dead, including elements of the Peshmerga and al-Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) fighters, while the total number of the injured among the armed forces amounted to 368 wounded,” the statement further read.

The UN report added that the casualty figures did not include those killed or injured in Anbar province, where it could not collect or verify data.

Gruesome violence has plagued the northern and western parts of Iraq ever since June 2014, when the Daesh launched its activities and captured portions of Iraqi territory.

Army soldiers and Popular Mobilization units are seeking to take back militant-held regions in joint operations.

“The Iraqi people continue to suffer from this vicious circle of violence, which has affected all walks of life in this country. The United Nations deplores the continuing loss of life resulting from acts of terrorism and armed conflict in Iraq,” the statement said, citing Ján Kubiš, the UN special envoy to Iraq and the UNAMI chief, as saying.

UNAMI’s earlier report had put the October casualties at 714 dead and 1,269 injured.

Original article

Despite What You May Have Heard, Mass Surveillance Continues – OpEd

$
0
0

Many news reports are heralding that the expiration this week of Section 215 of the PATRIOT Act authority has ended the United States government’s mass surveillance program. Meanwhile, in a Fox News interview, Judge Andrew Napolitano throws cold water on such claims.

Napolitano bluntly declares that the expiration of Section 215 authorization in no way prevents the US government from continuing its mass surveillance program. Napolitano explains that the National Security Agency (NSA) can continue to “gather phone calls, transcripts of phone calls, transcripts of emails, in real time” from all or nearly all Americans irrespective of the expiration of Section 215 authorization.

Watch Napolitano’s complete interview here:

In addition to the President George W. Bush executive order Napolitano mentions in the interview, the US government can also turn to the supposedly anti-mass surveillance USA FREEDOM Act, signed into law in June, for support as it continues the mass surveillance program. The US FREEDOM Act, typical of “reform” in the US government, masquerades as doing one thing when in fact it does the opposite.

As Ron Paul Institute Chairman and Founder Ron Paul wrote on May 3 — about a month before the bill made it through Congress — “a look at the USA FREEDOM Act’s details, as opposed to the press releases of its supporters, shows that the act leaves the government’s mass surveillance powers virtually untouched.” And that was before the legislation was further altered to advantage mass surveillance.

Indeed, shortly after President Barack Obama signed the bill, former NSA Director Michael Hayden proclaimed it “cool!” that the USA FREEDOM act would allow the mass surveillance program to continue unhindered.

Throughout the corrupt legislative process through which the USA FREEDOM Act moved, levers were pulled behind the scenes to ensure that any “reform” that reached the president would not threaten the continuation of the mass surveillance program. From starting with a crummy bill sponsored by the man who had introduced the PATRIOT Act in the House years before to employing exceptional shenanigans, including rewriting the bill after it had been approved by committee and then refusing to allow any amendments during House floor consideration, every effort was taken to make the bill unthreatening to the mass surveillance program. Compounding this subterfuge, the legislation was at the same time promoted loudly in a public relations campaign as a victory against overly intrusive government.

As Napolitano, a Paul Institute Advisory Board member, explained around the time the USA FREEDOM Act was signed into law, the so-called gain for liberty accomplished by the legislation amounts to some government snoopers doing their snooping on-site at telecommunications companies instead of remotely.

The USA FREEDOM Act ruse should have come as no surprise. As Paul noted in the summer of 2013 regarding a failed amendment offered on the House floor by Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) in opposition to the mass surveillance program that whistleblower Edward Snowden had recently exposed, the Republican and Democratic leadership in the House voted against Amash’s amendment and “for the police state.” In a year’s time that leadership was back, with help from the Obama administration and surveillance-state businesses, to ensure the continuation of the mass surveillance program via the USA FREEDOM Act bamboozlement.

Enough with the reforms that provide cover for continuing liberty violations. Instead, American politicians should follow the advice Paul has vigorously expressed since soon after Snowden’s first revelations: End the mass surveillance program and “get rid of the NSA.”

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

Dunford: Islamic State Wants US To Be Impetuous In Iraq, Syria

$
0
0

By Jim Garamone

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant wants the United States to be “impetuous right now, as opposed to being aggressive,” the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told the House Armed Services Committee Tuesday.

ISIL “would love nothing more than a large presence of U.S. forces on the ground in Iraq and Syria, so that they could have a call to jihad,” Marine Corps Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. told lawmakers during testimony with Defense Secretary Ash Carter.

Dunford said the current anti-ISIL strategy is showing progress. The United States, he said, needs to stick with airstrikes against targets in Iraq and Syria and with developing forces on the ground to take and retain territory from the terror group, while coalition and local forces will increase pressure against ISIL across the region.

The chairman also discussed a “specialized expeditionary targeting force” that will deploy to the region to assist Iraqi and Kurdish peshmerga forces against ISIL. These American special operators will conduct raids, free hostages, gather intelligence and capture or kill ISIL leaders.

Carter said the force will also be used to conduct unilateral operations in Syria.

Dunford highlighted the force’s capacity for intelligence gathering.

“Our effectiveness is … obviously, inextricably linked to the quality of intelligence we have,” he said. “Our assessment is that this force and the operations this force will conduct will provide us additional intelligence that will make our operations much more effective.”

The force operations, themselves, will be intelligence driven, the general said.

“The enemy doesn’t respect boundaries; neither do we,” he said. “We are fighting a campaign across Iraq and Syria. So we’re going to go where the enemy is and we’re going to conduct operations where they most effectually degrade the capabilities of the enemy.”

There are currently 3,500 U.S. service members in Iraq now. If more forces are needed, the chairman said he wouldn’t “feel at all inhibited about making recommendations that would cause us to grow greater than 3,500.”

The way ahead in Iraq was one of the questions the chairman fielded. Iraqi security forces have been retrained and reconstituted, the chairman said.

Meanwhile, Iraqi and Kurdish forces have driven ISIL out of Beiji. And, Kurdish forces have won a significant victory against ISIL in Sinjar.

Once Ramadi falls, “you are starting to close the noose,” Dunford said.

“We’ve cut the lines of communication at Sinjar between Mosul and Raqqa,” he said. “So Mosul is a future operation. Probably I wouldn’t affix a date to it but probably sometime months from now as opposed to weeks from now we would start to see operations in Mosul.”

50 Years Since 30 September, 1965: The Gradual Erosion Of A Political Taboo – Analysis

$
0
0

By Max Lane*

This year, 2015, marks the 50th anniversary of the events now known as the 30th September Movement – in Indonesian known as “GESTAPU” or “GESTAPU/PKI” or G30S/PKI. On the late evening of September 30 and into the next morning, several high-ranking Army officers were detained by officers and soldiers from the Presidential guard. The aim was apparently to present the generals to President Sukarno, accuse them of preparing a coup and seek their dismissal by the President. Sukarno eventually refused to support what they had done, especially after the killing of the generals, and ordered the movement to stop. The conspirators then escalated events, issuing a statement later in the day that the Cabinet of President Sukarno was decommissioned and a Revolutionary Council was being formed. As events unfolded, it became clear that the Chairman of the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) was involved, although apparently without the knowledge of most of the rest of the PKI leadership1. By this time, however, on the afternoon of October 1, their moves had failed. As it collapsed, the detained Army officers were shot dead. The wing of the Army under Major-General Suharto seized the initiative and described the events as a coup attempt by the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI). A mass purge followed during 1965-68 and at least 500,000 members and supporters of the PKI and of President Sukarno, as well as alleged sympathisers, were killed.2

The 50th anniversary landmark has seen a substantial increase in public discussion of the 1965 events. This has been the case not only in Indonesia but also in academic and literary circles in Australia, the United States and Western Europe. The 1965 events were, for example, a profiled theme at the Frankfurt International Book Fair in October 2015, where Indonesia was the featured country.3 1965 was also the profiled theme at the Ubud International Writers Festival in Bali, October 2015 – although these sessions were later cancelled after talks with the local police.4 In Indonesia, many media outlets have published special features on 1965, including Tempo magazine5 and CNN Indonesia,6 with a wider range of views being presented than in the past, including the voices of the families of people who were killed and former political prisoners.

At official levels, there has been no change in the basic narrative constructed and used since the New Order period. President Widodo officiated at the usual October 1 ceremony, Pancasila Day, at the site of the executions of the Army officers with a speech focusing on the events of 30 September and October 1 and with no reference to the mass extra-judicial killings later on.7

Statements by other government officials and military leaders all reaffirmed the continued dominance of the old narrative.

But over time, there had emerged, even during the Yudhoyono presidency, pressure for a statement of apology by the state to those described as the “victims of the 1965 tragedy”. There had developed an expectation that President Widodo may make such an apology, where Yudhoyono had failed to do so. This expectation was fuelled by the fact that Widodo did receive support from people who had been campaigners for the cause of rehabilitation of 1965 victims. Major institutions such as the National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM), a statutory body established by legislation with commissioners selected via the parliament, had also urged for such an apology to be issued by President Widodo.8 Komnas HAM has been advocating for a general approach that would achieve “reconciliation” with the victims. It has also been concerned about the slow discussion in parliament of a bill to establish a truth and reconciliation commission to deal with 1965 and its aftermath.

However, it became very clear by September 2015 that President Widodo was not considering such an apology or any major gesture towards reconciliation. In September he met a delegation from the Muhammadiyah organisation. After the meeting, Abdul Mu’ti, the organisation’s Secretary General, told the media that the President had clarified that no such apology would be made and that indeed he had never had the intention to make such an apology.9 This position was reaffirmed clearly again on October 1 at the official state ceremony held at the site of the mutineers’ execution of the army officers.10 Widodo’s statements echoed a longstanding official narrative that is still embodied in all published government materials on the 1965 events and in many school textbook accounts.

GRADUAL EROSION OF HEGEMONY

At the same time, there has nevertheless been at least the beginning of an erosion of this hegemony in society at large, although not at a mass level. The fall of Suharto and his general delegitimation in the public eye did, of course, start the process. This delegitimation of Suharto, moreover, was immediately associated with the collapse of the official ideology. Even the massive effort surrounding Pancasila indoctrination appeared to have shrivelled and lost energy, even if it retained its official position. There were also specific concrete government- level decisions made during the first few years after the fall of Suharto which have facilitated this process of the erosion of hegemony.

One of the first was the decision to stop screening the classic propaganda film “Pengkhianatan G30S/PKI” (The Treachery of G30S/PKI). This is a three-hour feature film, effectively directed with high production values by one of Indonesia’s leading playwrights in the 1970s, graphically and bloodily depicting the full New Order version of what happened on 30 September, including the torture of the executed army generals by sex-crazed communist women. The film was screened annually in cinemas and school children were taken en masse to see it – for millions in small towns and villages their first cinema experience. It was also screened on television annually. For young people in the 1970s and 1980s, it completely defined their knowledge and convictions as to what happened in 1965. As early as July 1998, with B.J. Habibie still President, a decision was made not to screen the film on 30 September. Interestingly, it is reported that it was military officials who first made the suggestion. Air Force leaders did not like the way the film depicted Air Force complicity in the 1965 events. An army general complained that the suppression of the 30th September Movement was too centrally attributed to the figure of Suharto.11 It is now 17 years since the film has had any systematic screening, meaning that several generations of school children have had no exposure to it12.

A second government-level decision which has facilitated the erosion was changes to the official school curriculum for history that was initiated during the Presidency of Abdurrahman Wahid. After 2001, the curriculum was revised to allow for five different analyses of what happened in 1965 to be taught. New text books appeared in 2004. In the new curriculum, the 30th September Movement was also no longer referred to as G-30-S/PKI, but only G-30-S. The institutionalised identification with the PKI was ended. The five different analyses were drawn from the existing international scholarship around these events. This ended the 40-year period when only one (official) version of the events was taught and which had to be learned by rote. Alternative versions included those that argued that 30 September was an internal affair of the army and not a PKI initiative13. This was a daring inclusion at the time, as was the introduction of the mere idea that there could be multiple interpretations.
During the Yudhoyono Presidency, in 2007, after campaigning from leading intellectuals from the 1966 Generation (the initial intellectuals who supported the New Order), this change was annulled and the curriculum reverted to referring to G-30-S/PKI14. The earlier text books were recalled and burned. It is not clear to what extent there was internal debate on this issue. The decision most likely reflected a passivity among the state elite when confronted with an active defence of the old hegemony.

Automatically, with this change, the tendency was again to return to a single-version approach. It is not clear how quickly the teaching of multiple versions ended after this, but it would appear that, for several years, students – not to mention teachers and student teachers in universities – were exposed to new ideas about what happened in 1965. The version allowing discussions of alternative analyses was in circulation for at least ten years, before it was replaced. This means that hundreds of thousands of children went through school free of the single-version syndrome. In teacher training universities, the more open approach was also widely utilised.

In October 2015, even while there have been several cases of pressure to curtail discussion of 1965, there have been some reports that new text books will again allow discussion of different versions of what happened on 30th September 1965. In a report in Republika newspaper, a member of the team writing a new official school text book, Linda Sunarti, head of the History Department at University of Indonesia, explained that the text book would also contain various versions, although it is not clear how extensive that range will be. She also explained that schools were also free to use other books to discuss 1965.15

An additional factor weakening the ideological weight of the single version in schools, even after it was reintroduced,16 was changes in the general educational philosophy. New guidelines on pedagogical outcomes include specifying analytical and research capacity. Interestingly, Sunarti, in the report above, also said teachers should encourage their students to investigate what happened in 1965 by interviewing their grandparents. This moves the overall approach away from the New Order rote-learning methods. This has meant that innovative teachers have been able to set research tasks for students on historical events, who can then use the Internet to obtain wider data and a wider range of analyses. It is not clear that this latter practice is widespread in Indonesia’s massive school system, however given that many young teachers were university students during the period of student protest against Suharto in the 1990s, there are indications that such critical teaching is occurring at least among an active minority17.

NON-STATE PROCESSES

Apart from the abovementioned decisions made by government, initiatives from outside the realm of the state and from semi-state institutions have also furthered the general erosion of the New Order’s hegemony. The work of Komnas HAM has been important. In July, 2012, it issued a report entitled “Statement by the Human Rights Commission on the Investigation Results Into Serious Violations of Human Rights connected to the Events of 1965-66.” Komnas HAM, established by legislation as a state-funded body, in its report identified cases of murder, torture and enslavement and argued that it was the state apparatus including the military that needed to be held accountable.18 The report was handed to the Yudhoyono government and also made available publicly. It fuelled the energies of those arguing for a reconciliation process, an end to impunity in the legal system as well as a statement of apology. However, to date, there has still not been any serious governmental response to the Komnas HAM report. Its real impact was in adding legitimacy to the discussions in society around this issue. School students researching 1965 on the internet could easily find the Komnas HAM documents.

Moreover, especially over the few years leading up to the 50th Anniversary, but also earlier, there has been more activity by victims themselves and human rights groups around these issues. There are more than one association of 1965 victims who have held public forums and meetings to advocate the return of their rights and rehabilitation19. Some have also been active in uncovering mass grave sites. This activity started more openly after Suharto fell – although there had been activity by a few groups before that. These activities have sometimes been harassed by small but militant anti-communist and religious groups, but they have continued and generated press coverage, heightening the interest20. There have also been important documentary film releases on 1965 which have helped generate discussion. One of the first and most important of these was “A Gift for the Indonesian People”” made by Danial Indrakusuma and which won a prize at the 2003 Jakarta International Film Festival.21 This has been widely screened in different non-commercial venues and has been made available on YouTube.

More recently, the documentary film The Act of Killing by Joshua Oppenheimer and its sequel, Look of Silence, have generated considerable discussion in the Indonesian press and social media22, despite not being allowed to be screened in commercial cinemas or on television. Screening has again been limited to voluntary, non-commercial venues. Both films are easily available on the internet. In response to The Act of Killing, major publications, like TEMPO magazine, also published their own special features on the mass killings23.

This year, civil rights lawyers and activists, led by former National Awakening Party (PKB) Member of Parliament, Nurysahbani Katjasungkana, organised an event described as an International Peoples’ Tribunal to investigate serious human rights violations in 1965.24 This project organised forums and events in Indonesia as well as in the Netherlands. In November 10-13, it organised in Den Haag, the Netherlands, a panel of respected international jurists and researchers to hear evidence presented by a team of lawyers from Indonesia, headed by prominent corporate and human rights lawyer, T. Mulya Lubis25. It provided documentary evidence to the panel and had three days of hearing of witnesses organised by the legal team from Indonesia. The panel concluded that the Indonesian state did have to answer for gross violations of human rights in 196526. It was widely reported in Indonesia, eliciting mostly hostile responses from members of the government, some of whom threatened to “put the Netherlands on trial for past human rights violations in the colonial period”27. Meanwhile commissioners representing both Komnas HAM and Komnas Perempuan28 also attended and gave evidence supporting the accusations against the Indonesian state 29 .

Supportive commentary was visible on the social media and in segments of the Indonesian press3031. It certainly helped profile this issue nationally and internationally during this immediate period.

In addition, many other human rights NGOs and individual activists have campaigned on this issue over the last few years.

Very symbolic of the process of hegemony erosion has been the popularity of an internet video: “Many Indonesians hate communism without knowing what it is.”32 It was created by a well- known stand-up comedian and IT graduate from Bandung, who already had a standing as a satirist. The video had 22 thousand Facebook likes just on its own page, let alone as the consequence of being reposted and shared via Facebook and blogs. It is a cogent satirical critique of the existence of a hegemonic version of history advocated by the state. The comedian does not argue for the replacement of the current version of the 1965 events with another, but rather that society be allowed to judge the various explanations on the basis of evidence and logic.

IDEOLOGICAL HEGEMONY REMAINS: BUT UNDER A STATE WITHOUT IDEOLOGICAL FOCUS

President Widodo’s business-as-usual approach on October 1 indicates that at the state level whatever the erosion of the hegemony of the old narrative in society, it is not yet impacting on government. Indeed, other incidents after October 1 include the arrest and deportation of Tom Iljas, an exile who had returned to Indonesia to find the mass grave where his father was buried.33 In the city of Salatiga, a campus student newspaper was seized and ordered burned because its front cover story was on the 1965 events, featuring a photo of a PKI rally in the town in the 60s.34 The sessions at the Ubud Literary Festival on 1965 were cancelled, after pressure from the police. The one-version-of-history approach remains the formal position within the education system, even though it is being subverted in practice in a still limited way35.

The State’s formal position, however, cannot stem the erosion of hegemony. The current state is unfocussed when it comes to ideology. It allocates very little resources to imposition or simply winning support for any specific ideological perspective: it is almost a-ideological. A part of the reason for this is that much of the ritual and ceremony connected to the events of 1965 had a special weight during the New Order as they were connected to its birth. The fall of Suharto and the start of the Reformasi era has produced new Reformasi “creation stories”.

Few serious resources are invested in coordinated state ideological activity. A part of the character of the New Order was its opposition to high levels of ideological contention, which had characterised the preceding 1945-65 period. Its answer was the imposition of a single state ideology, requiring severe central control and the deployment of substantial resources from the centre. While many of the institutions and even laws connected to this still exist, post-Suharto governments have not prioritised this activity, although they had maintained an allegiance to the content of the previous ideology, in particular in relation to 1965.

In the post-Suharto period, however, there has been a shift from defending the centralised ideas of Pancasila Democracy to at least the ideological commitment to electoral democracy, which, in itself, encourages, at least at a formal level, the idea that politics is about contention and thus does not encourage hegemonic versions of history. This is clear also in the education system. A text book version of the official narrative has much less impact in a society where the state has effectively vacated the ideological arena, relying for its legitimacy on delivering pragmatic material outcomes.

There can be little doubt that a process has begun which is opening up a gap between the official state-sanctioned hegemonic narrative of 1965 and the discussion – however embryonic at this point – in society. What is still unclear is how fast this process will develop and as the hegemony erodes what new ideas will replace it or at least vie with it. At the moment, the process is driven by a relative lack of interest and deployment of resources by the state in ideological matters, in particular the origins of the New Order in 1965, combined with increased activity by concerned groups and individuals. To date, no organised, substantial section of society, as a social force, has taken on a campaign against the existing hegemony. While this may be the case, the erosion of the old hegemony is likely to continue at a slow pace, marked by ongoing but uneven attempts to halt this process, by elements in government and society still convinced of the New Order perspective.

About the author:
*Max Lane
is Visiting Senior Fellow with the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute, and has written hundreds of articles on Indonesia for magazines and newspapers.

Source:
This article was published by ISEAS as ISEAS Perspective 66 (PDF).

Notes:
1 I am using the research available in the most recent book-length academic account of the events of the evening and September 30/October 1, namely John Roosa, Pretext for Mass Murder. The September 30th Movement and Suharto’s Coup d’État in Indonesia, University of Wisconsin Press, 2006. (There has been more recent publications looking at the mass killings after 1965, but they do not research the actual events of the 30 September and October 1, 1965.)
2 ibid
3 http://www.indonesiagoesfrankfurt.net/tragedi-1965-indonesia-dan-dunia/
4 http://www.ubudwritersfestival.com/message-uwr-founder-director/
5 https://majalah.tempo.co/site/2015/10/05/867/cover3244
6 http://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/focus/setengah-abad-selepas-g30s-2765/all
7 http://nasional.kompas.com/read/2015/10/01/08463301/Jokowi.Pimpin.Upacara.Hari.Kesaktian.Pancasila.di.Lu bang.Buaya
8 http://www.bbc.com/indonesia/berita_indonesia/2015/09/150921_indonesia_lapsus_kasus65_komnasham
9 http://nasional.kompas.com/read/2015/09/22/11593891/Kepada.Muhammadiyah.Jokowi.Bantah.Akan.Minta.M aaf.Terkait.Masalah.PKI ; http://kabar24.bisnis.com/read/20150928/15/476652/soal-pki-presiden-joko-widodo- tak-ada-rencana-minta-maaf
10 The officers were mainly shot and then thrown down a well. Official Suharto era propaganda also claims that the generals were tortured, included sexually, before being killed. But the official autopsy of their bodies indicated no such torture took place. See Steven Drakely, Lubang Buaya: Myth, Misogyny and Massacre, International Institute for Asian Studies, http://www.iiav.nl/ezines/IAV_607294/IAV_607294_2010_3/Drakeley.pdf, December, 2007.
11 http://nasional.tempo.co/read/news/2012/09/30/078432829/tokoh-di-balik-penghentian-pemutaran-film-g30s 12 Feature movies, in the cinema and on television, are also much more widely accessible today than in the 1970s, and audiences would be much more discerning in determining what is truth and what is fiction.
13 This version was drawn from B. Anderson and R. McVey, A Preliminary Analysis of the October 1, 1965, Coup in Indonesia Cornell University, 1966.
14 Paige Johnson Tan, “Teaching and remembering”, in Inside Indonesia 92: Apr-Jun 2008 – http://www.insideindonesia.org/teaching-and-remembering
15 http://nasional.republika.co.id/berita/nasional/umum/15/10/01/nvjvtr254-beragam-versi-g-30-s-ada-dalam- buku-sejarah-siswa.
16 The exact timing of the reintroduction is somewhat unclear. Certainly by 2013, teacher training universities had received memorandum ordering the withdrawal of the earlier multi-analysis text books.
17 These observations are partly based on discussions, including workshops, with lecturers in history education and with high school history teachers held at the Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta, a teacher training university, between 2013 and 2014.
18 PERNYATAAN KOMNAS HAM TENTANG HASIL PENYELIDIKAN PELANGGARAN HAM YANG BERAT PERISTIWA1965-1966, July 2012, http://www.komnasham.go.id/sites/default/files/dok- publikasi/EKSEKUTIF%20SUMMARY%20PERISTIWA%201965.pdf
19 The most prominent has been the Yayasan Penelitian Korban Pembunuhan 1965-1966, see http://ypkp65.blogspot.com.au/ In an earlier period the Institut Sejarah Sosial did oral RESEARCH AMONG VICTIMS OF THE VIOLENCE IN 1965, SEE http://www.sejarahsosial.org/
20 For example in 2015 see http://www.merdeka.com/peristiwa/kongres-anak-korban-65-batal-gara-gara- ancaman-diserbu-ormas-islam.html
21 http://www.suaramerdeka.com/harian/0303/27/bud1.htm see also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s- 6Bk5wJHks
22 For a selection of Indonesian comments chosen by the filmmakers see: https://m.facebook.com/notes/film- senyap-jagal/komentar-di-indonesia-tentang-jagalthe-act-of-killing/247886462001186/ A google search in Indonesian for “film JAGAL Oppenheiomer” reveals hundreds of media and social media reports and posts.
23 http://nasional.tempo.co/read/news/2012/10/01/078432913/para-jagal-dari-tahun-yang-kelam – This issue has a special feature on this question.
24 http://1965tribunal.org/a-peoples-tribunal/
25 The Tribunal has a comprehensive website at http://1965tribunal.org/. For a while it seemed to be blocked by undetermined hackers.
26 http://1965tribunal.org/concluding-statement-of-the-judges/
27 http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/news/government-rubbishes-independent-hague-tribunal-1965-massacres/; http://www.bbc.com/indonesia/berita_indonesia/2015/11/151111_indonesia_luhut; http://news.liputan6.com/read/2362889/tantangan-jk-untuk-belanda-jika-gelar-pengadilan-ham-kasus-65;
28 National Commission on Violence Against Women.
29 http://1965tribunal.org/id/dua-anggota-lembaga-negara-tampil-dalam-sidang-ipt65/
30 There were also hostile reactions from organisations supporting the establishment of the New Order in 1965, such as the Nahdatul Ulama and Himpunan Mahasiswa Islam. See http://berita.suaramerdeka.com/rugikan- bangsa-pbnu-siap-lawan-ipt-1965/ and http://mataindonesianews.com/hmi-ipt-65-dinilai-melanggar-ham- terhadap-umat-islam-indonesia/. It is difficult to ascertain how widespread support for such responses would be in the activist base of these organisations.
31 http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/opinion/johannes-nugroho-knee-jerk-reactions-ipt-1965-will-not-help- indonesia-one-bit/. For examples of sympathetic reporting, see the news, articles and opinion sections posted on the IPT Tribunal website.
32 http://www.rappler.com/indonesia/107627-indonesia-benci-komunisme-sammy-notaslimboy
33 http://nasional.tempo.co/read/news/2015/10/18/078710584/kisah-tom-iljas-diusir-dari-indonesia-karena- ziarah-ke-makam-orang-tua
34 http://nasional.tempo.co/read/news/2015/10/19/063710802/lentera-dibredel-aji-kecam-polisi-ini-insiden- memalukan
35 This can be seen, for example, in the BUKU SEJARAH INDONESIA, published by the Ministry of Education for the 2013 Curriculum (now suspended for all subjects” on page 107 where the G-30-S/PKI term is used, but with no discussion of different versions. However, as pointed out above, teachers may also use other books and set research projects. This document can be found at http://www.slideshare.net/bpangisthu/sejarah- indonesia-kelas-xii-k13-buku-siswa.


Mongolia Reassesses Foreign Policy Strategies After 25 Years Of Democracy – Analysis

$
0
0

By Alicia Campi

Mongolia is spending 2015 celebrating 25 years of democracy while reassessing its progress in nation building and economic development. Mongolia’s government, as it enters into a two‐year‐long election cycle, has made restoring FDI and reviving the economy its top priorities while being responsive to popular concerns about mineral‐based development. This political reality may negatively impact discussions with foreign investors on operating its state‐owned mining deposits, Oyu Tolgoi (OT) (copper) and Tavan Tolgoi (TT) (coal/uranium). However, it is worth recalling that ex‐communist Mongolia successfully reinvented itself as a free market, globally connected democratic nation that still has much to offer to its region.

Trends over the Last 25 Years

The vibrancy of Mongolia’s democracy is evidenced in its 12 national elections (presidential and parliamentary) and 16 local parliamentary elections since 19 90. The overarching concept guiding the country’s political and national security has been its ‘third neighbor’ policy of balancing its relations with its two border neighbors, Russia an d China, and reaching out to other democracies including the U .S., Japan, the European Community, and South Korea, for political and economic support.

Mongolia upgraded its military expertise via U.N. peacekeeping operations in Iraq, Sudan, Congo, and Western Sahar a, and 13 years of joint multinational military exercises called Khaan Quest hosted annually by Mongolia and co‐ sponsored by U.S. Army, Pacific and U.S. Marine Corps Forces, Pacific. Concurrently, Mongolia has annual military exercises with Russia and conducted eight rounds of anti‐ terrorism and border defense consultations with China.

The country’s traditional herding and agricultural economy has greatly benefited from development of its mining‐sector (per capita GDP in 2014 was estimated at $11,900) and its copper, gold, and coal deposits have been major magnets for FDI . Mongolia during the communist era was dependent on Soviet assistance for one‐third of its GDP. In the early 1990s generous foreign assistance from Western nations, particularly Japan, Germany and the U.S., rescued the nation from deep recession. After Mongolia simultaneously implemented market reforms through extensive privatization and joined the World Trade Organization, it established the foundation for economic growth but ushered in major corruption. GDP growth averaged nearly 9% per year in 2004‐08, a s it reoriented its economy towards FDI in large‐scale mining and benefited from high commodity prices. During the 2008 global financial crisis, Mongolia, simulated by IMF and other loans, strengthened its banking sector and fiscal management. China became Mongolia’s major trade partner and investor during the past 15 years, which caused domestic unease and calls for trade diversification. Out of concern that 90% of Mongolia’s gasoline and diesel fuel was purchased from Russia, the Mongols since 2014 have diversified foreign sup pliers and moved to construct domestic refineries.

The country’s major economic stimulus has been a 2009 parliamentary investment agreement with a Rio Tinto‐led international consortium to develop OT, a giant copper‐gold deposit. Mongolia’s GDP growth soared to a high of 17.5% in 2011 before beginning its descent. In 2014 growth was 7.8% with OT revenues alone contributing 4.8 percentage points. However, the agreement’s terms and FDI in general have become controversial domestically, causing investment legislation reversals and protracted disputes with foreign investors that have damaged FDI attractiveness. Today Mongolia, with almost a 30% poverty rate, faces loss of investor confidence and a precipitous FDI drop. Slowing Chinese demand for Mongolian minerals and depressed mineral prices together with loose fiscal and monetary policies have weakened the economy, caused high inflation, and deteriorated the currency. Meanwhile, steep repayments for $5.35 billion in outstanding loans loom. Such are the challenges prior to 2016 parliamentary and 2017 presidential elections.

The Way Forward

1) Redefinition of ‘third neighbor’ : This on-going policy was successful politically in allowing the nation to expand ties with democratic nations to both counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence and increase Mongolia’s international profile. However, it failed to prevent a 90% Chinese monopoly over its economy nor to generate sufficient western FDI. Thus Mongolia is expanding and redefining its “third neighbor” definition to emphasize India, Turkey, Persian Gulf nations, Vietnam, and even Iran to diversify its mineral trade partners and find new sources of energy and consumer goods.

2) Trilateralism: In response to Chinese and Russian rapprochement, since 2014, Mongolia has been promoting a “neighbor trilateralism” policy at the presidential summit level. However, to avoid any misunderstanding about Mongolia’s commitment to democracy, the Mongols in September 2015 initiated a “democratic trilateralism” encompassing Japan and the U.S.

3) Permanent neutrality: In a surprise move, Mongolia announced at the UN in September 2015 that it would seek United Nations ratification of its “permanent neutrality.” While this may free Mongolia from joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Russian Customs Union, it could have ramifications for Mongolia’s continued status in NATO’s Individual Partnership and Cooperation Programme and US‐supported Khaan Quest annual military exercises.

4) Promoting new international organizations: One feature of Mongolia’s third neighbor expansion has been to establish an International Cooperation Fund to share its experiences in democracy building, human rights, and market economy with other ex‐socialist/ communist nations such as Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan through training programs for government officials and diplomats. Mongolia also is more active in tackling broader Asian issues that impact its regional transportation grid. Prime examples are the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asian Security to discuss North‐South Korean issues, the Mongolian‐Russian‐Chinese Northern Railway, and the just announced dialogue platform, Forum of Asia.

5) Greater international activism: The most recent example is the election of Mongolia to the UN Human Rights Council for 2016‐2018 on October 28th with the highest vote count among the Asian candidates. In 2016 it will host the World Economic Forum’s East Asia Summit and the 11th annual Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM).

6) Brand Mongolia: Mongolia in 2013 initiated a “branding” export campaign aimed primarily at organic agricultural and nomadic products. The goal is to increase and diversify trade, FDI, and tourism. U.S. policymakers, regardless of party, have supported Mongolia ’s free market and democratic development over the past 25 years. Both countries re cognize that their strong political‐military neighborly relationship must ultimately be rein forced by greater economic ties. This is the challenge in front of the new U.S. Ambassador, Ms. Jennifer Galt, appointed in September. Despite the obstacles, U.S.‐Mongolian relations continue to prosper because Mongolia is committed to democracy. President Elbegdorj at the 2 5th anniversary celebrations mentioned three points crucial for Mongolia’s future : 1) Development of Mongolia’s democracy depends only on the Mongols, 2) Mongolia should focus now on combating terrorism but learn from its own communist experience, 3) Democracy “is a really difficult and torturous process….Therefore, we should make efforts every day for democracy and take care of it.”

*Alicia Campi is President of the US-Mongolia Advisory Group.

This article was originally published by East-West Center

Abandoning Libya Is A Mistake – OpEd

$
0
0

By Linda S. Heard

The self-assigned capital of Daesh, Raqqa, is being pounded from the air, forcing fighters to send their families across the border to Mosul for safety. For the West, the Paris attacks have been a game changer.

Now that Daesh commanders have seen the writing on the wall, they are turning their attention to lawless Libya attempting to consolidate a new nest in the city of Sirte, Muammar Qaddafi’s birthplace.

Sirte is fast becoming a springboard to attack neighboring states and a gateway to a crescent of coveted coastal oil fields and refineries; more prized than ever when the group’s oil revenues are dwindling due to US and Russian attacks on its oil convoys in Syria.

Why wouldn’t they relocate to Libya when major powers that patted themselves on the back for liberating the country have since left it to fester, despite appeals for help from its internationally recognized government in Tobruk?

While it’s true that the United Nations has worked to bring the political sides together, a move that only led to reconciliation on paper, anarchy continues to reign transforming this once wealthy Arab country where its citizens enjoyed peace and plenty into an impoverished failed state.

Even if political reconciliation had succeeded, the armed militias and terrorists would still have had to be dealt with. Daesh has been regrouping in Libya for some time, posing a serious threat to Tunisia that has suffered several attacks on its nationals and tourists, as well as Egypt that shares a long porous border with Libya. It’s beyond belief that subsequent to the group’s beheading of Coptic Christians, provoking Cairo to launch airstrikes against the perpetrators, Egypt was slammed by the Obama administration that’s also refusing calls from the Libyan government to lift the arms embargo.

That makes no sense at all when terrorists have no trouble at all importing heavy weapons when Libya’s coastlines aren’t being sufficiently patrolled. Worse, US plans to train an 8,000-strong Libyan force were shredded last year because the country is bereft of an effective, unified government. Hasn’t Iraq taught Obama anything at all?

The Egyptian president has since called upon NATO to “help the Libyan people and the Libyan economy” by stopping “the flow of funds and weapons” to terrorists. “Libya is “a danger that threatens all of us,” he warned early last month. But for some unfathomable reason, nobody is listening.

This is exactly the same scenario that unfolded in Iraq, where Daesh shocked the region by the ease with which it captured Mosul. Instead of standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the Al-Maliki government in an emergency, despite its incompetence and sectarian bias, US inaction permitted Daesh to expand and flourish. Syria is almost a mirror image.

The US-led coalition blames the Assad regime for the rise of Daesh there on the grounds of its brutality, but could they have grabbed half of Syria if President Obama hadn’t stepped back from his own “red line” or, at the very least, waged his anti-Daesh campaign with vigor before Russia entered the fray?

A few days ago, the European Union sealed a deal with Turkey to prevent refugees crossing the Mediterranean en route to Greece in return for a $3.2 billion payout plus the carrot of visa-free travel for Turks throughout the Schengen area as well as the fast tracking of stalled negotiations on Turkey’s membership of the Union.

If Ankara sticks to its side of the bargain, refugees flooding into Europe will dramatically reduce, but they will find other routes and one of those is likely to be Libya, which is just 290 miles away from the island of Lampedusa, Italy’s most southernmost tip. Should Daesh grows in strength in Libya terrorizing the population, you can bet there’ll by not only sub-Saharan Africans fleeing poverty on those rickety vessels but also Libyans seeking safety.

In the meantime, Daesh is following a “have weapons will travel” policy. It’s metastasizing throughout the Middle East and North Africa and has cells in many European countries awaiting orders to strike. What will it take for the international community to be galvanized into taking action wherever this cancer spreads?

Apocalypse, Iconoclasm And Islamic State – Analysis

$
0
0

From destroying monuments, killing populace, peddling selective historical narratives and establishing the first and maybe the last Caliphate of the 21st century to disseminating apocalyptic prophecies, ISIS has been very busy with a lot of projects. It detests being called Daesh and proudly parades its penchant for sensationalistic and horrific violence. It survives and thrives on theatrics that are eminently possible in a modern age no matter how much it seeks to rail against it. These theatricalities range from the burning of a Jordanian pilot to proclamations of an apocalyptic standoff with everyone that do not fit into its worldview which is not very inclusive to say the least.

Beneath this veneer of hyperactivity, ISIS is an analyst’s nightmare. Information about it is sketchy, and any credible details about its inner workings are hard to come by. Apart from its widely publicized ‘achievements’, the present purported Caliph of the Islamic State took up the mantle, ironically, by proclaiming himself as the descendant of the tenth Imam, from the Shia tradition, while taking on the other hand an irremediably anti-Shia posture.

In spite of embracing apocalyptic tone, it has been diligently attentive to the needs of a modern state. To state a few, it collects taxes, assigns members for tedious paperwork, and seeks to monopolize violence in its territories. Thus, it is hard to pin it down because it is a concatenation of all that we perceive as contradictory. One of the unlikeliest sources of analytical help here seems to be the French word ‘bricolage’. Meaning ‘to work with whatever one can find’ it provides a picture of ISIS wherein it tries to work its way around with whatever raw material it finds in any and every possible way.

Through this lens, I will look at ISIS’s usage of apocalyptic narratives, its attempt at manufacturing memory and its iconoclasm or the destruction of monuments.

Marketing the apocalypse

From being a low impact affiliate of Al Qaeda in Iraq to transforming itself into a transnational religious movement/State/Caliphate, ISIS’s career trajectory has so far been a success. It regularly recruits and lures potential candidates by proffering, among others, the possibility of participating in a once in an earth’s lifetime event- an apocalypse.

Apocalypse and apocalyptic propaganda are its centerpieces and, in fact, have motivated to a large extent one of the Islamic state’s initial founder Abu Ayyub al-Masri during its first stint. It is more than evident in the present leaders and members’ worldviews. A testament to this was when its fighters captured the strategically low-value town of Dabiq. According to Islamic eschatology, Dabiq is the chosen place for end times. That Dabiq is mentioned in the hadith indeed works for the Islamic State.

The land referred to as al-sham by ISIS, figures prominently in the prophecies and can be roughly equated with Eastern Mediterranean region. Places such as Dabiq are important for various reasons. Firstly, it is a tangible manifestation and not merely a figment of the imagination. Secondly, it offers or act as a conduit between the temporal and the other world thereby acquiring a significance for many, a testament to the possibility and reality of contact with the divine.

Controlling and reigning over such space is important, for it can be instrumental in rallying and attracting recruits. This was evident in the way Dabiq was fought for, even losing many members in the process. It is not merely of symbolic value but of material as well. ISIS, in another instance of throwing away all that does not fit into its paradigm and taking only that is useful for it, conveniently throws the blanket on another prophecy which states that the antichrist will rise from al-sham, where it currently reigns.

The possibility of having a visceral experience at these places is too much to forego for many. Along with the possibility of reliving history through the material remains, these places also proffer the palatable prospect of spiritual merit. In fact, the magazine brought out by ISIS is titled ‘Dabiq’ and in the very first page of the first issue, the writers enumerate on its importance and place in history. There is a marketing ploy here. It is a message to the potential recruits that by quoting Dabiq and insinuating that it is under the group’s control, the group seeks to advertise the idea that it now controls and has access to premium apocalyptic real estate – and thus draws potential recruits from such a scenario. It is premised on the assumption that the contagious charisma of the place, material as well as ideational transfers to the state. It is promotion through association. Whether it believes the apocalyptic garb or not, it certainly helps ISIS in pursuance of various endeavors.

During its initial stint from 2006 under Abu Ayyub al-Masri, Islamic State swerved toward messianism in spite of being warned about such thinking being fraught with danger by Al Qaeda leadership. ISIS in its revamped self however, has managed to render and fire apocalyptic missives frequently while not taking lightly the quotidian concerns that arise out of running a state/caliphal enterprise.

Compounding this, is its agenda to eclipse history by peddling a skewed version of it. Its version of history seeks to throw under the carpet the connections and exchanges of the past. It throws up monolithic actors having no interactions with each other over the course of millennia. A paradox lies at the heart of such an understanding or recourse to history. While it enthusiastically calls up this monolithic version to serve its projects, it also rails with extreme gusto against the West and its attendant ancillaries such as colonialism, imperialism and capitalism for all the iniquities visited upon Middle East since the Crusades.

While the previous affiliates also sought refuge in history and tried to deploy skewed historical narratives they showed a considerable amount of disdain for apocalyptic or eschatological projects. For the Al Qaeda leaders and coterie, apocalypse or notions about eschatology were not particularly fetching. ISIS deviates from others here in the alacrity with which it has embraced such projects. The upsurge of interest and belief in apocalyptic tone has got to do with the instability and civil wars the region has been roiled by. Massive changes at various levels coupled with unrest and disaffected nature of war in places mentioned as part of apocalyptic prophecies contrived to produce a material cum ideational cash cow in the form of a penchant for apocalypticism that ISIS has meticulously milked in its favor. Furthermore, having been left alone by the governments in Syria and Iraq in the two years after the departure of U.S forces certainly helped it in cementing its fledgling gains.

Iconoclasm and self-legitimization through history

There is a certain amount of envy as well as awe when it comes to structures that outlive the fragility or the vagaries of the human lifespan. They remind us of our mortal selves yet induce a paroxysm of anger and anxiety whenever they are destroyed or vandalized. It is in their property of being timeless as well as vulnerable that we come to cherish them. The intricateness with which violence and cultural destruction are entwined is evident through history wherein any representations of the past are deleted or annihilated by many incoming regimes. On the other hand, the fact that the monuments and sites destroyed by ISIS stood until 21st century is revelatory for it shows that they were untouched until now by many other regimes in the past.

Iconoclasm which refers to the destruction of images and things ‘other’ is visible across history. The damage wrought by ISIS in the last couple of years across Syria and Iraq is unquestionably irreparable and heinous. Does it imply a lack of history or historical sense as many have suggested? On the contrary, it suggests a surfeit of it. Destruction of this sort was a prerequisite for many in history, if not all, in realizing idioms of social and political power. It ranges from the Abbasid desecration of the graves of Umayyad Caliphs in 750 to Mongol decimation of all that Abbasids held dear in 1258.

These acts of extreme vandalism have been dubbed by some observers as exercises ‘out of spite’ and barbarity. But a closer diagnosis reveals that these destructive impulses are highly unoriginal yet grounded and deeply informed by a sense of history. In fact, the relationship between heritage and anti-heritage is not as antagonistic as it is touted to be. The proximity between the two is eerily close.

In the ISIS checklist of annihilation, many have found a place from Palmyra, the Temple of Bel to graves and shrines of Muslim saints. For ISIS, these monuments deserve ‘disgust and hatred’. Locals are miffed at the destruction of these sites for there is a rich fusion of local beliefs with the larger rubric of Islam. ISIS claims that it alone follows ‘real’ Islam and yet as mentioned its Caliph’s chief source of legitimacy comes from Shi’ism whose followers it considers apostates.

These destructive impulses emerge out of an understanding that history and monuments as such are significant and are tangible repositories of collective memory. Decimation then is an attempt to remove the imprimatur of the previous era or occupants. It is by the destruction that these actors seek to construct a new landscape of memory and by extension history. Here heritage decimation is not an incidental objective but the very object of destruction. Since these sites and monuments are repositories of social as well as the historical memory, they need erasure to make way for the incoming regime. It is also an important exercise in instilling norms of remembrance: It decides what and who is to be forgotten and remembered and more importantly how ISIS is perceived and remembered. It is not quite unusual a project if one looks at how many other states across the world indulge in self-glorification through commemorations or seek sanitized memories by expunging some or fabricating new ones. Material culture thus is potent in many ways. In fact, the foremost symbols emblematic of a fall or rise of regimes beamed across the world by media are that of material artifacts – the toppling of Saddam Hussein’s statue or the Berlin wall.

Conclusion

From claiming genealogical legitimacy from a tradition whose believers (Shias) ISIS equates with servants of the antichrist and seeks to erase them to brandishing claims of apocalyptic fervor while trading in oil and artifacts, ISIS has been thriving on performances, contradictions, and ambiguities. These orchestrated performances along with the use of ambiguity are intended to give a semblance of credence to the idea that it is ideationally as well as materially not so weak. While the demise of its apocalyptic project and Caliphate are nearby, whether they crumble on their own or from interventions from outside will be crucial not only for history but for how this attempt at building a Caliphate, from all that is available, will be remembered.

*Nagothu Naresh Kumar is a Graduate Student at Central European University, Budapest

France: The New Leader Of The Free World? – OpEd

$
0
0

“Nature abhors a vacuum” observed the Greek philosopher Aristotle – a remark that, demonstrably valid, has entered into common parlance. Given US President Barack Obama’s self-evident abdication of America’s role as defender of Western values in the turbulent Middle East, a new leader is indeed emerging.

“This administration,” said US Senator John McCain, on October 1, “has confused our friends, encouraged our enemies, mistaken an excess of caution for prudence, and replaced the risks of action with the perils of inaction.”

He was reacting to Russia’s surprising entry into the Syrian civil conflict, a campaign in strength which seemed destined to put America’s so-far ineffective intervention in the shade. At that point it appeared as though Russian President Vladimir Putin might become the global symbol – so needed, but so lacking – of determined opposition to jihadist terrorism. It soon became obvious that Putin’s real agenda was to sustain Bashar al-Assad in power as Syria’s president, support Iran in their struggle against Assad’s enemies, and enhance his own bid for super-power leadership.

Putin’s priorities suffered a severe shock on October 31, when a Russian Airbus A321, on a flight from Egypt to St Petersburg, was blown out of the sky, killing all 224 people on board, including 17 children. Islamic State (IS) immediately claimed responsibility, and it was soon established that a bomb had been smuggled aboard the aircraft and detonated at 30,000 feet. Putin responded by shifting the focus of the Russian attack in Syria and Iraq to IS.

No sooner had the world absorbed the fact that over 200 innocent air passengers had been subjected to mass murder, than the global media were filled with another horrendous demonstration of bloodlust – the co-ordinated massacre in Paris of 130 people on the night of November 13. Again IS claimed that it was responsible. Just one week later, 170 people were held hostage, and 27 slaughtered, in a hotel in Mali. It is no coincidence that the Malian capital, Bamako, had been a logistics hub for French forces ever since they intervened in 2013 to help Mali’s government defeat an Islamist attempt to take over the country. At the time France’s unilateral intervention – disapproved of by Germany and a swathe of Arab states – seemed to confirm the willingness of recently-elected President François Hollande to be a force opposing terrorism on the world stage.

Following the November 13 outrage, as the French capital and the world reeled at the enormity of the brutal onslaught on innocent civilians, his dignified presence in Paris, and his calm and appropriate reaction aroused admiration for him, sympathy for the people of France, and solidarity with them in their shock and grief.

At the time of the Paris slaughter President Obama happened to be in Turkey, and he gave what could only be described as a lacklustre news conference. He expressed solidarity with France, listed some modest successes in pushing back IS forces in Iraq and Syria, pledged to maintain humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees, “and we’ll continue to stand with leaders in Muslim communities, including faith leaders, who are the best voices to discredit ISIL’s warped ideology.” Scarcely a rousing call to arms.

President Hollande, on the other hand, responded vigorously to the assault on his country. He immediately instituted an intensified anti-IS air campaign in Iraq and Syria, authorised hundreds of raids on suspected domestic terrorists, declared a 3-month state of emergency, and proposed changes in the constitution to make France less hospitable to jihad. He then sponsored UN Security Council Resolution 2249, drafted by French officials and approved by all 15 members, calling on member states to take “all necessary measures” against IS, a group it described as “a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security”. Countries were urged to step up sanctions and improve efforts to cut off the flow of foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria.

In commenting on the Resolution, France’s UN ambassador, Francois Delattre, told the Council that France intended to “scale up its efforts so as to galvanize the international community as a whole, to vanquish our shared enemy.” And that is clearly France’s post-Paris strategy – to rally the irresolute, the uncertain, the doubtful, the indecisive, among which, regretfully, must be numbered not only the US, but also the UK, a goodly proportion of EU members, Turkey and, most obviously, many of the stable and moderate Arab states who stand on the side-lines and, for their own complex reasons, refrain from entering the fray.

Hollande is determined to follow up this series of initiatives by personal persuasion. Two months ago France became the only European country to join US-led strikes in Syria, and the UK government is hovering on the brink of seeking a parliamentary mandate to do the same. However prime minister David Cameron is determined not to repeat the mistake of losing the vote in the House of Commons, a humiliation experienced back in August 2013 when he sought agreement to bomb Assad for employing chemical weapons against his own people.

So on November 23 Hollande hosted a meeting with Cameron in Paris, in part, no doubt, to strengthen the British prime minister’s case by enabling him to claim he has France’s backing. Hollande then flew to Washington where he met Obama to discuss beefing up the US-led “Operation Inherent Resolve” strikes against IS targets in Iraq and Syria. From there he flew on to Moscow to discuss with Putin how their countries’ militaries might work together in an effective anti-IS campaign.

Clearly it is the French president who is taking the proactive lead in rallying a global campaign against the brutal, bloodthirsty and philistine IS organization. Only when IS has been utterly crushed and defeated, and chased out of Iraq and Syria, can its malign appeal to vulnerable Muslim youth the world over be finally snuffed out. To achieve this objective, an increasing number of voices in the US, the UK and elsewhere are arguing that the strategy of “no boots on the ground” will have to be reversed.

Peter R Mansoor is a retired US Army colonel who was executive officer to General David Petraeus in Iraq, and who played a key role in the US counter-insurgency strategy in that war. He is now an Ohio State University military history professor.

“The president says the goal is to degrade and ultimately destroy IS,” he said on 17 November, “and yet the amount of resources that he’s applied, and the strategy that he’s fashioned, is not sufficient to get the job done…We need to get serious about actually destroying IS in its homeland in Syria and Iraq, and to put US and European troops on the ground if it’s necessary to accomplish that goal…This administration just isn’t serious about the war in the Middle East.”

It seems pretty clear that France’s President François Hollande leads an administration that is.

War Crimes Trial: Bangladesh At The Crossroads – Analysis

$
0
0

By S. Binodkumar Singh*

On November 22, 2015, condemned war crimes convicts Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) Secretary General Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed (67) and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Standing Committee member Salauddin Quader Chowdhury (66) were hanged simultaneously at Dhaka Central Jail at 12:55 am after the President, Abdul Hamid, on November 21 rejected their applications seeking Presidential clemency as they lost all legal battles against their death sentences on charge of crimes against humanity committed during the Liberation War of 1971.

In fact, the International Crime Tribunal-2 (ICT-2) on July 17, 2013, had sentenced Mojaheed who was arrested on June 29, 2010, and was indicted on June 21, 2012, to death after finding him guilty on five of seven charges against him. He filed an appeal with the Appellate Division of the Supreme Court (SC) on August 12, 2013. However, the Appellate Division on June 16, 2015, upheld the death sentence for Mojaheed. Similarly, on October 1, 2013, ICT-1 sentenced Salauddin who was arrested on December 16, 2010, and was indicted on April 4, 2012, to death finding him guilty on nine of 23 charges. He lodged appeal with the Appellate Division on October 29, 2013, and the Appellate Division in its verdict on July 29, 2015, upheld the death sentence for him.

Remarkably, the Appellate Division on September 30, 2015, released its full verdicts upholding the death penalty of Mojaheed and Salauddin, leaving them with the option of seeking review of the verdicts. Expectedly, both Mojaheed and Salauddin filed their respective review pleas on October 14. Again, the Appellate Division after all the four judges including Chief Justice Surendra Kumar Sinha, Justice Nazmun Ara Sultana, Justice Syed Mahmud Hossain and Justice Hasan Foyez Siddique signed on November 18 dismissed their review petitions, leaving only the President mercy as last resort of the two condemned war criminals to avoid execution. As expected, on November 21, Mojaheed and Salauddin submitted their separate mercy petitions to the President. On the same day, their pleas were rejected by the President.

Certainly, Salauddin and Mojaheed were the two most high-profile war crimes convicts who walked to the gallows. Salauddin is the first BNP leader to have walked to the gallows for war atrocities. He was the Parliamentary Affairs Adviser to the then Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, enjoying the rank of a Cabinet Minister. Earlier, he was Minister of Health during the Hussein Muhammad Ershad’s regime. Meanwhile, Mojaheed was Minister of Social Welfare of the then BNP-led coalition Government between 2001 and 2006. He is the third JeI leader to have died for war crimes, after JeI Assistant Secretary Abdul Quader Mollah (65), who earned the nickname ‘Mirpurer Koshai (Butcher of Mirpur)’ was hanged at Dhaka Central Jail on December 12, 2013 and JeI Senior Assistant Secretary General Muhammad Kamaruzzaman (63), the third most senior figure in the JeI, was hanged at Dhaka Central Jail on April 11, 2015.

Thus far, the War Crimes (WC) Trials, which began on March 25, 2010, have indicted 44 leaders, including 27 from JeI, six from the Muslim League (ML), five from Nezam-e-Islami (NeI), four from BNP and two from the Jatiya Party (JP). Verdicts had been delivered against 24 accused, including 17 death penalties and seven life sentences. Each judgment resulted in violence unleashed by fundamentalists, led by the BNP, JeI and its student wing Islami Chattra Shibir (ICS) combine. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the country has recorded at least 481 Islamist extremist violence-related fatalities since March 25, 2010, including 267 civilians, 29 Security Force (SF) personnel and 185 extremists (data till November 26, 2015).

Expectedly, protesting the SC verdict of November 18, JeI called a countrywide dawn-to-dusk hartal (general strike) for November 19. Soon after the SC handed down the verdict, Makbul Ahmed, acting ameer (chief) of JeI, at a press statement said “The government has made a farce in the name of justice by filing false and fabricated cases against party leaders to make the party devoid of leadership. Mujahid is a victim of government’s conspiracy.” But, the countrywide hartal, unlike the previous hartals called by JeI protesting at the war crimes verdicts against the party leaders, was ignored largely across the country on November 19 without any violence. Again, protesting Mojaheed’s hanging on November 22, JeI called another countrywide dawn-to-dusk hartal for November 23. The daylong hartal concluded with almost no response from people.

Meanwhile, the BNP, not paying much heed to the trial and execution of its leader Salauddin did not consider any protest programme. Surprisingly, BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia at a high-level party meeting on November 25, 2015, did not allow her party colleagues to discuss Salauddin Quader Chowdhury’s execution. After the meeting, Jamiruddin Sircar, a Standing Committee member of the party said “The issue of Salauddin’s execution was raised at the meeting. Madam [Khaleda Zia] offered her condolence at his death. There was no more discussion on it as it was not on the agenda. We now want to make it clear that we are not in favour of war criminals. By not discussing Salauddin, she has saved her party from the accusation of patronizing war criminals.” Earlier, on November 19, 2015, when a correspondent of Prothom Alo (First Light), a major daily newspaper published from Dhaka city in the Bengali language, contacted seven BNP leaders, including three members of its Standing Committee members, a Standing Committee member, preferring anonymity, said “Salauddin Quader’s execution will have no impact on BNP. The party is not also discussing this much.”

In the meantime, on November 22, 2015, different political parties and organizations hailed the execution of Salauddin and Mojaheed. Hailing the execution of the convicts, Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB) in a statement demanded a ban on the politics of JeI and ICS to root out extremism from the country forever. Similarly, demanding immediate execution of the all other war crime convicts, Bangladesh Chhatra Federation (BCF), the student front of Ganasanghati Andolon, another left leaning political party, in a statement expressed their satisfaction over the verdict and said it was a reflection of people’s expectations. Sammilita Sangskritik Jote, a cultural organization, in a statement also expressed satisfaction over the execution of condemned war crimes convicts. In the same way, Gonojagoron Mancha (People’s Resurgence Platform), a youth platform seeking death sentence for all war criminals brings out a procession at Shahbagh in the capital Dhaka city.

Further, calling for confiscation of all the properties of the convicted war criminals and distribution of the wealth among the families of insolvent freedom fighters and rape victims of the 1971 Liberation War, Shahriar Kabir, Acting president of Ekatturer Ghatak Dalal Nirmul Committee, an anti-war crimes platform on November 26 said “The properties of Jamaat-e-Islami including its business firms, factories, NGOs, and educational and social institutions should come under the government’s control. These institutions have to give compensation as well.

Separately, criticizing former Presidents Ziaur Rahman and HM Ershad, and BNP Chairperson Khaleda for rehabilitating those involved in war crimes in 1971, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed on November 23, 2015, said “Ziaur Rahman did not try the war criminals. We tried and executed the war criminals. I think through the trial and execution of the war criminals the victims’ family members will at least get some consolation. If we cannot end the trial of war criminals, the nation will never be freed from curse.”

Indeed, the implementation of the verdicts of the War Crimes Trials in each case, as it was on November 22, is a step towards the long sought-after justice, a step towards establishment of a society under law, accountability and democracy. Moreover, the trial, judgment and verdict is a lesson to all that crimes committed against humanity will not go unpunished whoever the perpetrators may be, and that the law will catch up with them eventually. Nevertheless, the significant support base of the radical Islamist formations in the country, as well as of the BNP which allies with them, retains the potential to cause extreme harm within the country, and it will require both an iron will and political sagacity to carry the War Crimes Trials process to its logical conclusion.

*S. Binodkumar Singh is a Research Associate at the Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi. He can be reached at: salambksingh@yahoo.co.in

Is Kashmir Really That Insecure? – OpEd

$
0
0

When we fail to blame anything in Kashmir, raising alarms on security and casting doubts on the security apparatus becomes the content of our daily discourse. Even politicians off and on use the phrase ‘insecurity in Kashmir’ or ‘Kashmir is insecure’ simply to target the rival parties, but overtly or covertly they undermine the efficiency of security mechanism at place and add to the magnititude of uncertainty already prevailing thereby having scores of ramifications in public and security circles. Is Jammu and Kashmir really so insecure, remains a disturbing and simultaneously a crucial question when we proudly argue that millions of the active deployment of multiple security agencies, state police, etc, are alert and doing their job with great vigil.

It’s not just leaders, but also the media keeps adding insult to injury by highlighting punch lines like ‘the security situation in the valley/state is tense’ mostly due to continued border skirmishes,’ the violence graph has highly increased in the state’, ‘we are back to 1990’s’, glorification of young militancy, Kashmir’s new age militancy, radicalization of youth in south Kashmir, ‘increasing terrorism in the entire J&K region’ and scores of other sensational lines and new tags which really have led to a mass scare and indirectly undermined the holistic and robust security apparatus at place. Such an irresponsible and unneeded glorification has a counter effect and virtually serves as an encouragement to the mischief mongers and enemies of peace. Yes there is a sense of feel insecure psyche among many people like Panchs, sarpanches, mainstream political party workers, etc, who feel insecure but that is purely the government’s concern and needs to be looked into seriously.

It is worth pondering the question, is it actually the sense of political insecurity of our politicians or others who directly or indirectly undermine the security mechanism (in the pretext of criticizing the ruling party) that otherwise needs more encouragement and morale boosting to overcome various challenges rather than a bashing via statements on insecurity. I would say at least the security institution should be kept away from politics and we all must stay away from doing the politics of insecurity in Kashmir as it can have serious security implications and can affect the morale of the forces especially police who are constantly under the burden of high alert culture.

After all there has to be a basis to undermine security and we must acknowledge that security is apolitical and insecurity is a state of mind. We must realize that so much of the security is not sitting idle and is consistently trying its best to maintain order at least now that there still is a lot of scope for improvement. Given the fact that the security policies and procedures do not appear out of nothing, but are part of the ongoing efforts to stabilize the target areas and keep watch on vulnerable areas and simultaneously watch the developments occurring carefully. This very process of securitization needs to be understood in a holistic perspective and appreciated by all and sundry without just playing the politics of insecurity. Let us recognize the fact that this ideally sophisticated and practically alert security makes an important contribution to the decreasing tensions and rising security sense in the valley but hasty security related or security targeted statements coupled with media exaggeration virtually shape the collective feel insecure psyche and make people re-imagine the brutal, violent, uncertain and turbulent past.

Also when we talk of insecurity in Kashmir, who do we consider insecure, masses or others or security itself. Masses have no enmity with anyone so they are not insecure, others are already secured and security is potentially strong enough to deal with any untoward happening around. While giving too much hype to insecurity of masses, we need to answer who are masses insecure from? Guerillas, military, police or others? Common sense dictates that it (insecurity widespread) is not a reality but things blown out of proportion. What remains is nothing but the politics of insecurity that should be replaced with some constructive idea which Kashmir direly is in need of. Yes it is agreed that masses feel insecure at times rather harassed by military or police insensitivities but situation is not too bad to be painted as a monster especially today when so much has changed on the ground though much more needs to be done to be people friendly.

Last Word

The public scare trend should go down as a scare leading to more scare and distrust begets distrust and uncertainty only. Also raising such concerns blindly, we as a state will be in a foot in mouth situation reflecting no trust in our security machine or raising eyebrows on their capabilities.

At this juncture I strongly believe that the security personnel seriously need more field sensitization and especially gender sensitization training that will enable them to develop more goodwill while operating. But honestly speaking and given the ground realities, forces have not improved enough in this perspective. Had the forces been people and gender sensitive such a dichotomy of ‘Us’ and ‘Them’ would not have evolved and Kashmir’s new age militancy faces like Burhan Wani and many others like him would not have taken a different route. Instead of solving the problem and taking the ‘young and educated militancy’ seriously, masses and politicians are making it more like a monster which perhaps has no solution. Last but more essential is that political leaders while targeting their opposites should never bring security in between as the fallout becomes bigger than their personal and party politics. Instead of talking fear and insecurity, our collective leadership should find more ways of crafting peace in Kashmir besides delivering social justice on the ground and punish all those who are involved in human rights abuse since 1989 be that forces, police or non-state actors.

A version of this article originally appeared in The Pioneer.

Azerbaijan: Improving Policy Responses To Air Pollution Due To Transport Emissions – Analysis

$
0
0

By Sadiga Mehdizadeh*

Air pollution has long been considered one of Azerbaijan’s top environmental problems. During the Soviet period, industrial plants and factories, especially in the cities Sumgayit and Baku, along with the oil industry, accounted for almost for 80 percent of air pollution. But following the sudden shift in national economy in the early 1990s, most industrial plants, especially chemical ones, were closed. This resulted in lower emissions and tangible improvements in air quality. Regrettably, the early 2000s saw the return of air pollution to the list of key environmental dangers. Economic development, rising household incomes, and inadequate public transport services have led to rapid growth in car ownership, bringing a major new source of air pollution: transport emissions.

Currently transport is accountable for 80% of air pollution. In response to this increasing threat Azerbaijan has implemented European emission standards. Certainly the application of the Euro 2 (2010) and Euro 4 (2014) standards marks a significant step forward in terms of policy. But has it led to the anticipated improvement in air quality? What are the challenges in this regard?

Analysis

Early national policy documents on environmental protection included general requirements on reducing air pollution. Requirements for stationary sources of pollution (plants, factories) were more developed than for mobile sources (cars, buses). But changing patterns in the sources of air pollution – i.e. increasing numbers of vehicles on the roads – have emphasized the need for a new approach to mobile sources of pollution. The decision on the implementation of the Euro emission standards has introduced highly specific regulations; this should be considered as a successful step at the current stage of environmental policy making. For instance, under article 21.1 of the Law on N 517-IQ/03.07.1998, the production, operation and import of vehicles exceeding pollution levels is forbidden. The implementation of these new emission standards has set clear benchmarks, avoiding a vague or general policy approach.

Screen Shot 2015-12-01 at 11.42.06 PMThe introduction of Euro 4 had significant impact by introducing binding requirements on car import rates. According to the State Customs Committee, car imports fell by 39.3% in 2014. The primary reason for this decline is the non-compliance of imported cars with Euro 4 standards. As mentioned above, national legislation forbids the import of vehicles that does not comply with these environmental requirements.

Despite gradual changes in air quality policy and the recent decline in the import of environmentally non-compatible cars, air quality has not improved during the last four years. Since 2010, when the first Euro emission standards were introduced, pollution trends have in fact increased. (Figure 1.)

There are several factors that undermine the successful practical application of the Euro emission standards, and impede improvements in air quality. The most crucial and urgent of those can be grouped into two categories.

Fuel quality. Fuel quality is key to the successful implementation of Euro emission standards. Currently, the national standards database does not include specific standards on fuel quality for cars. The AZS 059-2001 document on “Unleaded motor gasoline. Specifications.” is the main instrument on fuel quality, and this only covers the technical features of the product. The absence of fuel quality standards undermines the implementation of Euro standards, monitoring activities, and consequently, overall compliance.

On the other hand, gasoline produced in Azerbaijan, which covers almost 91% of domestic demand, does not comply with the Euro 4 standards. According to the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, in 2014 the Azerneftyag and The Baku Oil Refinery named after Heydar Aliyev produced 1206.3 thousand tons of A-92 type gasoline, which mainly been used to cover domestic demand. Overall the rate of gasoline consumed by transport within the country comprised 1357,4 thousand tons for 2014.

Vehicle inspection and compliance. Roadworthiness tests are also an important tool in emission standards compliance. The State Traffic Police holds primary responsibility for technical inspections and testing the environmental compliance of vehicles. These technical checks are performed on a regular basis at both stationary and mobile posts. It should be noted that the Law on Road Traffic N517- IQ/03.07.1998 has identified compliance with environmental standards of as one of the main three components of the inspection. It is prohibited to operate a vehicle that is not in compliance with the seven indicators.

However, the practical application of the abovementioned requirements needs a more targeted approach. For instance, environmental roadworthiness is currently assessed by visual inspection. Visual inspections should comprise the first level of the roadworthiness test. More detailed technical elements should address environmental and technical norms. Moreover, the technical capacity of the State Traffic Police in regard to conducting efficient and effective inspections should be strengthened.

Conclusion

There is no doubt that the implementation of modern environmental standards would strengthen national environmental protection mechanisms. But implementation should be managed through gradual transition. The shortcomings mentioned above emerged mainly as a result of the hasty introduction of emission standards. For better compliance results and positive outcomes, the introduction of Euro emission standards should be divided into two phases.

The first phase should cover preliminary preparations over a period of three years. Issues related to technical capacity, fuel quality and legislative harmonization should be assessed and adjusted. The second phase should include a deadline for the full implementation of the standards.

Financial and administrative sanctions for non-compliance should be activated only at the beginning of the second phase.

The further implementation of Euro emission standards is dependent on a number of key developments. Primarily, national standards on fuel quality need to be introduced at the same time as the Euro emission standards. In addition, there is need to enhance the technical capacity of the State Traffic Police, with special focus on an institutional action plan to deal with the issue of vehicles that are still in use but non-compliant with the new emission standards.

About the author:
*Ms. Sadiga Mehdizadeh
, visiting research fellow at the Caspian Center for Energy and Environment (CCEE)

Source:
This article was published by CCEE as Policy Brief 19 (PDF).


IRS Commits To Follow US Justice Department Guidelines On Stingrays

$
0
0

In response to questions by US Senator Ron Wyden (D-Oregon), Internal Revenue Service Commissioner John Koskinen committed to seeking warrants for future use of cell-site simulator technology. The devices, often referred to as Stingrays, can be used to track cell phones and intercept information about calls.

The IRS said cell-site simulators are used exclusively for criminal investigations and that its policy mirrors the Justice Department’s, which requires warrants to use the devices, except in exigent or exceptional circumstances.

Wyden said the new policy puts important safeguards on the IRS use of tracking devices.

“The IRS has an important role to play in combating money laundering, drug trafficking, and international tax dodging, but tax enforcement and protection of personal privacy must not be mutually exclusive,” Wyden said. “The IRS is taking reasonable steps to protect due process, while using all the tools at its disposal to catch people who may be ripping off U.S. taxpayers.”

The IRS also disclosed new details about its use of cell-site simulators.

According to the IRS, the agency has owned 1 cell-site simulator since October 2011, and is in the process of purchasing a second.

The IRS said it has tracked 37 cellular devices using the device, as part of 11 federal investigations and it has used the cell-site simulator to assist in four non-IRS investigations – one federal case and three state cases.

To better protect Americans’ privacy, Wyden has introduced the Geolocation Privacy and Surveillance Act (GPS Act), with Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, which would require a warrant for any government tracking of Americans’ electronic location data. The bill would apply to stingrays, cellphones, cars and any other device.

INTERPOL Cyber Experts Meeting Aims To Advise On Global Strategy

$
0
0

The first meeting of the INTERPOL Global Cybercrime Expert Group brought together cyber experts from around the world to review INTERPOL’s current cybersecurity programmes and provide advice for future activities.

Around 80 experts from some 30 countries gathered at the INTERPOL Global Complex for Innovation (IGCI) in Singapore where they discussed issues relating to cyber research, training, forensics and operations.

The aim of the expert group is to advise INTERPOL in policy formulation and the implementation of cyber programmes and operations; to serve as a forum for the exchange of information and best practices; and to assist INTERPOL in developing a long-term cybersecurity strategy.

INTERPOL Secretary General Jürgen Stock said: “The transnational nature of cybercrime, which does not abide by physical or virtual borders, requires a comprehensive global strategy developed by the top experts and backed by the necessary training and resources on the ground.

“The creation of the INTERPOL Global Cybercrime Expert Group is an important step in bringing together the world’s top cybercrime authorities to share experiences and assist with forming a global cybersecurity plan,” concluded the INTERPOL Chief.

With transnational criminal organizations increasingly using the Internet and new technologies to carry out their crimes, during its two-day (30 November and 1 December) meeting the expert group was given an overview of INTERPOL’s cyber activities and discussed strategies for enhancing cybersecurity worldwide.

“New cyberthreats are constantly appearing, therefore it is critical for law enforcement to work closely with cyber experts from the private sector to present a strong global front against these emerging threats to our security,” said Noboru Nakatani, Executive Director of the IGCI.

The expert group was established earlier this year, following the approval of the INTERPOL General Assembly in 2014. Its chairperson is Catherine Chambon, Deputy Director of the Cybercrime Repression Department of the French Judicial Police. The expert group carries on the work of the previous IGCI Working Group, which assisted with the formation of the IGCI and the definition of its main activities.

Minor Victory For Privacy: NSA’s Bulk Phone Collection Ends – OpEd

$
0
0

The expiration of the National Security Agencies’ power to collect and indefinitely store all phone records is neither cause for raucous celebration among privacy advocates—nor cause for predictions of doom among hawks for national security powers, such as this by Fox News:

The National Security Agency’s sweeping authority to collect phone-record data expired Sunday, despite evidence that such programs helped European officials track down the perpetrators of the recent Paris suicide bombing attacks and prevented other attacks.

American security agencies retain every tool the French drew on in using cell phone records to track down some of the perpetrators—after, we may add, the fact.

The more salient fact is that French security agencies, as American agencies before 9/11, had plenty of data in-hand—they were simply inept at utilizing it to prevent either the Charlie Hebdo or more recent attacks.

Rather, once again, the failure to forestall attacks perpetrated by known threats resulted from an “intelligence breakdown:”

As French authorities try again to analyze the cracks in their counterterrorism bulwark, French officials said they needed to better cooperate with allies while improving their capacity to process a welter of information. [Emphasis added]

Security agencies around the globe are drowning in too much data—and no longer having all of our phone records on their very own hard drives is unlikely to hobble NSA any more than it already is by definition of its being an unaccountable bureaucracy.

Unfortunately for those of us hoping for privacy from government’s officious overreach, the exchange of the USA Freedom Act for sections of the USA PATRIOT Act provides little actual additional rights. NSA can still pretty much access any information it wants, as well as tracking our movements. The PRISM program, among others, remains untouched. In a nutshell:

The problem – and it is a major one – is the reform applies only to phone records. The NSA can continue to harvest bulk communications from the internet and social media.

Yet our phone records are now not exactly off-limits: instead of being stored directly by the NSA, phone data will remain with our telecom companies, with NSA having to ask the Fisa court for access. And as we all hopefully know by now, the Fisa court generally gives NSA whatever it asks for.

Yet in the aftermath of Thanksgiving it’s good to remember to be thankful for even the smallest things. So, thank you, Edward Snowden, Thomas Drake, Kirk Wieber, Wiliam Binney and other true patriots, for helping people know:

The government unchained itself from the Constitution as a result of 9/11. And in the absolute darkest of secrecy, at the highest levels of the government, approved by the White House, NSA became the executive agent for a surveillance program that turned the United States of America effectively into the equivalent of a foreign nation for dragnet electronic surveillance….

And we are seeing the initial outlines and contours of a very systemic, very broad, a Leviathan surveillance state and much of it is in violation of the fundamental basis for our own country—in fact, the very reason we even had our own American Revolution. And the Fourth Amendment for all intents and purposes was revoked after 9/11.

Now let’s build on this small step to resecure the rest of our privacy rights.

After all, isn’t that why they’re called “Rights”?

Do War Makers Believe Their Own Propaganda? – OpEd

$
0
0

Back in 2010 I wrote a book called War Is A Lie. Five years later, after having just prepared the second edition of that book to come out next spring, I came across another book published on a very similar theme in 2010 called Reasons to Kill: Why Americans Choose War, by Richard E. Rubenstein.

Rubenstein, as you can tell already, is much more polite than I. His book is very well done and I’d recommend it to anyone, but perhaps especially to the crowd that finds sarcasm more offensive than bombs. (I’m trying to get everyone except that crowd to read my book!)

Pick up Rubenstein’s book if you want to read his elaboration on this list of reasons why people are brought around to supporting wars: 1. It’s self-defense; 2. The enemy is evil; 3. Not fighting will make us weak, humiliated, dishonored; 4. Patriotism; 5. Humanitarian duty; 6. Exceptionalism; 7. It’s a last resort.

Well done. But I think Rubenstein’s respect for war advocates (and I don’t mean that in a derogatory sense, as I think we must respect everyone if we are to understand them) leads him toward a focus on how much they believe their own propaganda. The answer to whether they do believe their own propaganda is, of course — and I assume Rubenstein would agree — yes and no. They believe some of it, somewhat, some of the time, and they try hard to believe a bit more of it. But how much? Where do you put the emphasis?

Rubenstein begins by defending, not the chief war marketers in Washington, but their supporters around the United States. “We agree to put ourselves in harm’s way,” he writes, “because we are convinced that the sacrifice is justified, not just because we have been stampeded into okaying war by devious leaders, scaremongering propagandists, or our own blood lust.”

Now, of course, most war supporters never put themselves within 10,000 miles of harm’s way, but certainly they believe a war is noble and just, either because the evil Muslims must be eradicated, or because the poor oppressed peoples must be liberated and rescued, or some combination. It is to the credit of war supporters that increasingly they have to believe wars are acts of philanthropy before they’ll support them. But why do they believe such bunk? They’re sold it by the propagandists, of course. Yes, scaremongering propagandists. In 2014 many people supported a war they had opposed in 2013, as a direct result of watching and hearing about beheading videos, not as a result of hearing a more coherent moral justification. In fact the story made even less sense in 2014 and involved either switching sides or taking both sides in the same war that had been pitched unsuccessfully the year before.

Rubenstein argues, rightly I think, that support for war arises not just out of a proximate incident (the Gulf of Tonkin fraud, the babies out of incubators fraud, the Spanish sinking the Maine fraud, etc.) but also out of a broader narrative that depicts an enemy as evil and threatening or an ally as in need. The famous WMD of 2003 really did exist in many countries, including the United States, but belief in the evil of Iraq meant not only that WMD were unacceptable there but also that Iraq itself was unacceptable whether or not the WMD existed. Bush was asked after the invasion why he’d made the claims he’d made about weapons, and he replied, “What’s the difference?” Saddam Hussein was evil, he said. End of story. Rubenstein is right, I think, that we should look at the underlying motivations, such as the belief in Iraq’s evil rather than in the WMDs. But the underlying motivation is even uglier than the surface justification, especially when the belief is that the whole nation is evil. And recognizing the underlying motivation allows us to understand, for example, Colin Powell’s use of fabricated dialogue and false information in his UN presentation as dishonest. He didn’t believe his own propaganda; he wanted to keep his job.

According to Rubenstein, Bush and Cheney “clearly believed their own public statements.” Bush, remember, proposed to Tony Blair that they paint a U.S. plane with UN colors, fly it low, and try to get it shot. He then walked out to the press, with Blair, and said he was trying to avoid war. But he no doubt did partially believe some of his statements, and he shared with much of the U.S. public the idea that war is an acceptable tool of foreign policy. He shared in widespread xenophobia, bigotry, and belief in the redemptive power of mass murder. He shared faith in war technology. He shared the desire to disbelieve in the causation of anti-U.S. sentiment by past U.S. actions. In those senses, we cannot say that a propagandist reversed the public’s beliefs. People were manipulated by the multiplication of the terror of 9/11 into months of terrorizing in the media. They were deprived of basic facts by their schools and newspapers. But to suggest actual honesty on the part of war makers is going too far.

Rubenstein maintains that President William McKinley was persuaded to annex the Philippines by “the same humanitarian ideology that convinced ordinary Americans to support the war.” Really? Because McKinley not only said the poor little brown Filipinos couldn’t govern themselves, but also said that it would be bad “business” to let Germany or France have the Philippines. Rubenstein himself notes that “if the acerbic Mr. Twain were still with us, he would very likely suggest that the reason we did not intervene in Rwanda in 1994 was because there was no profit in it.” Setting aside the damaging U.S. intervention of the previous three years in Uganda and its backing of the assassin that it saw profit in allowing to take power through its “inaction” in Rwanda, this is exactly right. Humanitarian motivations are found where profit lies (Syria) and not where it doesn’t, or where it lies on the side of mass killing (Yemen). That doesn’t mean the humanitarian beliefs aren’t somewhat believed, and more so by the public than by the propagandists, but it does call their purity into question.

Rubenstein describes the Cold War thus: “While fulminating against Communist dictatorships, American leaders supported brutal pro-Western dictatorships in scores of Third World nations. This is sometimes considered hypocrisy, but it really represented a misguided form of sincerity. Backing anti-democratic elites reflected the conviction that if the enemy is wholly evil, one must use ‘all means necessary’ to defeat him.” Of course a lot of people believed that. They also believed that if the Soviet Union ever collapsed, U.S. imperialism and backing for nasty anti-communist dictators would come to a screeching halt. They were proved 100% wrong in their analysis. The Soviet threat was replaced by the terrorism threat, and the behavior remained virtually unchanged. And it remained virtually unchanged even before the terrorism threat could be properly developed — although it of course has never been developed into anything resembling the Soviet Union. In addition, if you accept Rubenstein’s notion of sincere belief in the greater good of doing evil in the Cold War, you still have to acknowledge that the evil done included massive piles of lies, dishonesty, misrepresentations, secrecy, deception, and completely disingenuous horseshit, all in the name of stopping the commies. Calling lying (about the Gulf of Tonkin or the missile gap or the Contras or whatever) “really … sincerity” leaves one wondering what insincerity would look like and what an example would be of someone lying without any belief that something justified it.

Rubenstein himself doesn’t seem to be lying about anything, even when he seems to have the facts wildly wrong, as when he says the most of America’s wars have been victorious (huh?). And his analysis of how wars start and how peace activism can end them is very useful. He includes on his to-do list at #5 “Demand that war advocates declare their interests.” That is absolutely crucial only because those war advocates do not believe their own propaganda. They believe in their own greed and their own careers.

This article was published at David Swanson’s website.

Europe’s Deepest Crisis – Analysis

$
0
0

By Britta Petersen*

Eastern European countries have been in the headlines since the beginning of the refugee crisis for a variety of reasons. The controversy about burden sharing and the question how to distribute the more than 850.000 people, who have applied for political asylum in 2015 so far in the European Union, has split the continent.

A talk by Dr. Igor Luksic, Professor for Political Science at the University of Ljubljana and a former Minister and Chairman of the Social Democratic Party of Slovenia here at ORF in Delhi, offered an opportunity to discuss the different perspectives in Europe on how to deal with the problem.

After a controversial decision by EU ministers to set up a quota system for the distribution of refugees, countries that opposed the plan such as Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic threatened to challenge the EU at the European Court of Justice. However, some of them abandoned the idea in order to deescalate tensions. But also the UK opted out.

Professor Luksic explained that many of the former communist countries in the EU are afraid that they would not be able to deal with a large number of migrants. Some of them are “discontent about their economic situation after the fall of communism” and most of them “are ethnically very homogenous” after decades behind the iron curtain – unlike Britain, France and Germany. ” Poland, for example, is 98 % white and 94 % Catholic”, said Luksic.

Warsaw, however, initially supported the quota system. Luksic’s own country, Slovenia has comparatively little relevance in the discussion since it has only 2 million people and received not more than 86 asylum seekers, but the political scientist emphasized that it has been welcoming.

The countries at the Southern and Eastern periphery of Europe are getting the lion’s share of refugees (who are in their majority from Syria) through the Mediterranean or the Balkan. But many of them actually do not want to stay there but are headed for Germany and Scandinavia. The surge of people arriving in Hungary made it the country with the highest number of asylum applications in proportion to its population (1450 refugees per 100,000 in Hungary compared with 323 in Germany and 30 in the UK).

The national-conservative government of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and parts of the Hungarian media have been very vocal about it – and partly xenophobic, as a result. Marta Horvath, Second Secretary at the Embassy of Hungary in Delhi, admitted, that the “language has been a bit harsh” but she emphasized that “Hungary did not close the borders!”

Although a fence has been erected at the “green border” between Hungary and Serbia (and similar ones are being built between Hungary and Croatia and Romania, that are both not part of the Schengen area in Europe, that allows passport free travel), refugees still “can enter through the official border crossing points”. According to Horvath, the reason for the drastic step was that “most refugees were not cooperative, they wanted to go to some other European countries”.

Hungary, that already had one of the lowest acceptance rates of asylum seekers in Europe (only 9 percent of asylum applications had been granted in 2014, compared to an average of 45 percent in the entire EU) recently amended its asylum legislation. “According to the law everyone who flees from war is not a refugee”, said Marta Horvath – which is a deviation from the UN Refugee Convention from 1951.

Dr. Partha Gosh, who is currently a Fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (IDSA) in Delhi recalled that “South Asia handled 50 Mio refugees without signing the UN refugee convention”. But he also pointed out that there was a “civilisational connect” between the people uprooted during partition.

The political, legal and humanitarian complexity of the situation explains why Dr. Christian Wagner, Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin described the situation as “Europe’s deepest crisis”.

While the Eurozone crisis according to Wagner was “only about money”, the refugee crisis is questioning the very identity of the European Union. While its member states are still negotiating about a fair formula for burden sharing, populists are reaping the benefits from an emotionalized discussion. “While the Eurozone crisis saw the ascent of a new left wing movement, the refugee crisis has strengthened right wing populism”, explained Wagner.

However he warned from using the word “fascism” in this context. “Not everyone who takes on a right-wing position in this regard is a fascist”, he said. Many a critic of the German government, that has been welcoming refugees under Chancellor Angela Merkel have been “Euro-sceptics” for a long time. Wagner pointed out that, Merkel’s “We will manage”-attitude towards refugees has become an even greater political risk for her after the Paris attacks. “It only needs one terrorist attack by refugee and the days of Angela Merkel would be numbered”, he said.

Ironically her politics will also have an adverse effect on the Maastricht criteria for financial stability within the Eurozone, that the German government defended so fiercely during the Greek crisis because few countries within the EU will be able to shoulder the financial burdens of the refugee influx as easily as Germany. Igor Luksic therefore quoted the late former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, who warned that Germany could “exploit the countries at the European periphery”.

*This report was prepared by Britta Petersen, Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Viewing all 73659 articles
Browse latest View live


Latest Images