Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73702 articles
Browse latest View live

Over 70 Malaysians Have Joined Islamic State: Government Develops ‘Deradicalization’ Program

$
0
0

Malaysia has identified 72 of its nationals who have fled the country to join Daesh in Iraq and Syria and begun a “de-radicalization” program for those who return, according to an official Wednesday.

Nur Jazlan Mohamed, deputy home minister, told the parliament that of the 72 Malaysians — including 14 women — 15 fighters had died overseas while seven returned home.

“The government is currently undertaking a ‘de-radicalization’ program for the seven detainees to cure them of their ideology and to prevent them from spreading them further,” he said.

Those in custody are currently in various stages of prosecution under the Special Offenses Act.

Mohamed added that the government is also holding talks with various Islamic religious bodies in the country to formulate a logical program to explain “real Islamic values” to the detainees and potential Daesh fighters.

“We have done a study on those who have been detained and it shows that those who joined IS from here have very minimal Islamic education and understandings,” he said, using an alternative acronym for the terrorist Daesh group. “That is one challenge we face in educating them.”

Prime Minister Najib Razak had earlier also warned that Malaysia and the international community will not tolerate any form of violence and extremism committed in the name of Islam.

Razak stressed that the country “will never accept the ideology of Daesh to use Islam as a cover up to the brutality and murder that we are witnessing now”, underlining that the religion “had never preached sadistic brutality against innocent men, women and children.

By P Prem Kumar
Original article


France: Parliament To Vote On Criminalizing Genocide Denial

$
0
0

The French Parliament will vote on a bill criminalizing the Armenian Genocide denial Thursday, December 3, Nouvelles d’Arménie reports.

Introduced by MP Valerie Boyer, the bill envisages punishment for denial of the Genocide and any crimes against humanity committed in the 20th century.

The bill was discussed by the parliament’s Justice Commission on November 25.

A bill criminalizing the denial of the Armenian Genocide was adopted by the French Parliament (December 22, 2011) and Senate (January 23, 2012); it was, however, declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional council of the country on February 29, 2012.

A Malaysian Reflection On An American Thanksgiving – OpEd

$
0
0

I have come to appreciate Thanksgiving not only as a non-denominational, non-religious, non-ideological American celebration but also a day to also reflect upon Malaysia, the beloved country I grew up in. It is a time to think about what I observed has worked well here in the Unites States and how they can be applied to the improvement of Malaysia.

Because my passion has always been education and the progress of nations, I believe that there are pitfalls that can be avoided. Let me first begin by presenting a picture of what America is today.

What is ailing corporate America?

It is a troubled nation and still struggling to make the republic work and democracy live its expectation. It is at another juncture of a change of leadership with the yet another intense upcoming campaign for the presidency.

It is not looking good if we look at the candidates pitched for the post of, arguably the most powerful man on Earth. What if Donald Trump wins? Or Jeb Bush? Or Ben Carson? Or even Hillary Clinton? Why not Bernie Sanders? These are the questions Americans are asking about what kind of president they deserve. Americans are already tired. The American Dream has taken a toll on their economic, emotional, and spiritual lives.

It is a troubled nation with troubled schools and youth are angry at the police. The movement of Black Lives Matter is an example of the ever-growing anger of the especially the African-Americans who are feeling not only criminalised but also targeted for profiling and police brutality, especially since the last five years.

It is a troubled nation with its continued massive funding for the state of Israel perhaps to the tune of US$5 billion per year and of the United State government’s blindness to the plight of the Palestinians. Voices protesting American funding of the terror state of Israel, however, are growing in the academia, especially amongst her anthropologists.

It is a troubled nation to when America is said to have indirectly created the Daesh or the Islamic State in the course of the US occupation of Iraq. America lost the war in Iraq and destroyed the country in the process. The Bush Family regime started the destruction which took the lives of a million Iraqis and created the refugee crisis as well as the global terror network.

Looking at today’s crisis viz-a-viz IS, here is a truth – besides from Russia and China, most of the weapons used by IS come from the United States.

It is a troubled nation when her power comes historically and presently as well comes from the barrel of a gun and the perfection of the US military-industrial complex. It is a warmongering country that creates and exacerbates world conflict in order to sell weapons.

Logically, why would one produce better killing machines and tools of destruction if there are no buyers? How would American weapons producers survive the business of mass murder when there are no conflicts to fuel and there is no need to create demand for weapons?

It is a troubled nation when a grand plan to force a predatory investment such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is an agenda forced upon gullible and kowtowing nations such as Malaysia, arm-twisted by President Obama and his backers, namely and primarily the global corporate backers?

These are what form the picture of what America is. At least the ugly side of America run by corporations and one in which the president and the Congress are rubber-stampers of what big businesses want.

Racism , capitalism, and militarism – three golden words or ones carved on blood diamond are what Dr Martin Luther King, Jr warned Americans of, as a nation on the road to destruction.

So, out of these three words and the lesson from the most powerful empire, what should Malaysians learn from?

Advice to Malaysians

It better focus on raising your children well in adjusting to a changing, globalising, and very diversifying Malaysian and global society. We must work harder to improve race relations, be stronger to fight corruption and power abuse, and be more intelligent in designing policies that will benefit the poor, the marginalised and the powerless.

We must teach our children to focus on ways to understand others, improving their English language skills, perfecting their moral compass, encouraging them to think well and good about children of other races and religion, to encourage them to make friends with people of other races, to be grateful that schools offer the great opportunity to love and respect teachers of different races.
Teach them to learn about the dangers of generalising, stereotyping, and projecting hate that would lead to mass deception, to encourage each child to learn about other cultures and religion, and to teach them that all of us in Malaysia are now Malaysians and not this or that group of immigrants.

We all are migrants in time and space and in history and that all of us are human beings with emotions, struggles, challenges, history of joy and despair, memory of pain and pleasure of living, and that all of us are merely of differing skin colour tone and born to speak different languages and to believe in different things about salvation and that we are all travelers in this life.

We cannot allow Malaysia to come to a point in which riots such those race-based against the police to take root. We cannot allow the Malaysian version of #BlackLivesMatter to be the impetus for urban violence.

We are all these and will not need moments of history where we cultivate hate for the bigger picture of oppression we do not understand. We may all be pawns in this great political game of big-time plunderers and multi-ethnic robber-barons skilled at mass deception and distractions. Today, the level of corruption and the growing cases of mass corruption and power abuse that are going unpunished have made Malaysia a critically ill nation.

We should be grateful that we are still alive and breathe daily and that we must think happily and joyfully like Malaysians in order for each and every one of us to prosper in peace. We cannot travel the path of America in which racism is on the rise and of late especially in places such as Texas, Islamophobia is brewing.

Malaysians, we need to come back to our senses. Our strength will still come from diversity and the respect and cultivation of talent. We should have rejoice and celebrate the achievements of this nation for that beautiful concept of unity in diversity; not to organise any rally that spews hatred and invoke the horrors of the May 13, 1969 tragedy.

Let us design a safer journey towards a progressive and harmonious Malaysia, beyond for example, the red T-shirt red-river of blood march of some mangled manufactured propaganda of Malay dignity.

My Thanksgiving wish is to see a saner and more peaceful America as well as Malaysia – two countries I have loved and will continue to love. Have a blessed Thanksgiving, my fellow Americans!

Collusion And Control: Europe Pays Africa To Keep Refugees – OpEd

$
0
0

Things are getting their populist worst in Europe, with proposals of payment to various regimes to control the flow of refugees assuming grand proportions. Various African governments (Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia) have been offered in the order of 1.8 billion Euros to accomplish such dubious ends. “It could almost be satire,” writes Ahmed H. Adam in The Guardian (Nov 13).

The Malta Migration Summit in Valletta saw a range of suggestions that betrayed the lengths of desperation European states are willing to go. Rather than seeing a comprehensive set of plans to deal with migrant flows at the source, in transit, and at points of destination, we have a set of primitive proposals centred on aid and bolstering repressive regimes. The end result is the same: monetising a humanitarian problem with such proposals as an Emergency Trust Fund. Member states have been asked, in turn, to make matching contributions.

The governments slated to receive money have, to a large extent, been vigorous contributors to the very refugee crisis they are now being told to stem. The result, rather perversely, is a form of refugee aid in reverse.

The Sudanese case is particularly striking, with the High Commission for Refugees noting that some 400,000 people have been internally displaced in Darfur, with a further 6.9 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. The number of internal displacements are set to increase by the end of this year.

Another proposed recipient state, Eritrea, has similarly been the catalyst for large numbers of refugees heading to Europe. Eritreans, in 2014, constituted the second largest migrant group, after Syrians, reaching 34,320 (African Arguments, Apr 16). As Maimuna Mohamud and Cindy Horst note in African Arguments, “These figures give an indication of the ongoing and prolonged political repression in Eritrea and tragically, these asylum seekers often face further insecure conditions in Libya – a hub for migrants en route to the EU, and a country on the brink of state collapse.”

Out of this has grown a market in smuggling which is globalising by the week. It implicates entire structures of government officialdom, be it those in the intelligence services willing to make some ruddy cash, or those offering a poisonously dangerous hand in shifting people out.

The glaring consequence of having such Trust Fund money allocated will not address the root causes of population movements (the regimes, after all, will not change). Instead, they will provide an encouragement to deport undesirables within the state. Countries of origin effectively become countries of deportation, egged on by monetary incentives.

The Valletta Migration summit proposals effectively continue elements of the Khartoum Process, otherwise known as the EU-Horn of Africa Migration Route Initiative, which aims to combat migrant trafficking and smuggling between the Horn of Africa and Europe. All well and good, till one considers the usual suspects in refugee production.

Iverna McGowan was quick to note the implications of the proposals. “With the EU seemingly intent on enlisting African nations as proxy gatekeepers, the Valletta summit is likely to result in a one-sided border control contract dressed up as a cooperation agreement.”

There are other problems with this proxy enlistment. The underlying issue here, again rooted in a monetary conceptualisation of the problem, is that the refugees fleeing for Europe from certain areas of conflict are treated as the economic sort. This skewed reading invariably invites further hostility in European quarters while denigrating the actual humanitarian character of those fleeing brutal regimes and states of fear. Forking out cash to those very regimes neither encourages protection, nor fosters stability.

The line of reasoning there is that the African refugee dilemma is being treated differently from that of Syria and Iraq. Those from Iraq and Syria are deemed humanitarian refugees; those from Africa, economic. The assessment is flawed at its core, given the conflicts afflicting Somalia, Eritrea, some parts of Nigeria and the Central African Republic (Newsweek, Nov 13).

The last, though by no means exhaustive point in these sham proposals, is the lack of monitoring and transparency that this will entail. The EU has pressed for guarantees that those returning to origin states such as Eritrea will have their safety assured, and that no torture will take place.

This stunningly naïve approach avoids the very reason why such individuals flee in the first place, effectively making a gentleman’s agreement out of regime cruelty. The rule against non-refoulement enshrined in the Refugee Convention can never be reduced to such Queensberry rules of decency.

If ever there was incitement to continue a crisis rather than curb it, this is it. Such recipient governments have every interest in perpetuating, not stemming, the problem. Scores can be settled while money is funnelled into the ether. While Australian government officials pay the very people smugglers they supposedly loathe to relocate to Indonesia, various regimes can be guaranteed a sum for supposedly quelling problems largely of their own making.

The Valletta summit would suggest an acceptance of the most rudimentary reading of the global refugee problem: Throw money at it, supposedly relocate or displace the problem, and hope it vanishes before the local populace gets testy.

Reclaiming Palestine: How Israeli Media Misread The Intifada – OpEd

$
0
0

Israeli commentators, Yaron Friedman, of “Ynet News” and Haviv Rettig Gur, of the “Times of Israel” are clueless about the driving force behind the Palestinian mobilization and collective struggle. In two recent articles, and with unmistakable conceit, they attempted to highlight what they perceive as the failure of the current Palestinian uprising, or ‘Intifada’.

Gur argues that ‘the terrorism’ of the Palestinians is not a surge of opposition to Israel but a “howl against the pervasive sense that resistance has failed”. He reduces the Intifada to the mere act of alleged stabbing of Israelis, and points out to the painful truth that the Palestinian Authority ‘elites’ are paying lip service to the ‘martyrs’, while “simultaneously acting with determination on the ground to disrupt and stop attacks”.

In his long-winded article, “Losing Palestine”, Gur essentially claims that the current struggle against Occupation stems mostly from internet fervor and is more a deceleration of defeat than a strategy for victory, and that no Palestinian leader dares to be the first to accept this.

Friedman, on the other hand, describes the ‘knife Intifada’ as a ‘fire without coal’; that the “insane actions of the stabbers” is designed to ignite religious fervor, ultimately aimed at blaming the Jews.

Those who launched the Intifada “have no real internal or external support (financial or with weapons) and it broke out at a time when the nightmare of all the Arab world’s leaders is the social protests turning into anarchy,” he wrote.

There is little sense in arguing against the unsympathetic approach Zionist commentators use to describe Palestinians or their insistence on seeing Palestinian collective action, violent or otherwise, as an act of ‘terror’; on their refusal to see any context behind Palestinian anger or on how they inject a religious narrative at every turn, and lob ‘anti-Semitic’ accusations unfairly, whenever they see fit.

But what is particularly interesting about the Israeli take on the Palestinian Intifada, as presented by Friedman, Gur and others in the media, including from within the Israeli political establishment, is the attempt to display an exaggerated sense of confidence, that unlike other uprisings, this one is a farce.

In fact, the Israelis are certain that the uprising is likely to deflate once the limited tools at its disposal are contained. This supposition has led Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Tzipi Hotovely, to meet with representatives of YouTube and Google “to discuss ways to cooperate in what she calls the fight against ‘inciting violence and terrorism’,” reported MEMO, citing Israeli daily, ‘Maariv’.

This hasty self-assurance among Israeli state officials and media is predicated on several suppositions:

First, while the PA has not yet moved to take part in crushing the Intifada, it has done its utmost to thwart the people’s effort at mobilizing Palestinians beyond the limited confines of the ruling Fatah faction and its worthless promises of peace and statehood.

The PA knows well that if the Intifada escalates beyond its current scale, it could undermine – if not entirely challenge – the PA itself, which has served for many years as a line of defense for the Israeli Occupation. Thanks to the ‘security coordination’ between the Israeli army and the PA, Palestinian resistance in the West Bank has, until recently, been largely contained.

Second, Hamas, although it has openly called for an escalation of protests against Israel, is swamped in its own problems. The siege on Gaza, tightened further with the closure of the Rafah border and the desperate need to rebuild what successive Israeli wars have destroyed, makes it difficult for Hamas to take part in any effort that could open up another war front with Israel.

One must recall that the Israeli war on Gaza in the summer of 2014 was, itself, an Israeli attempt at redrawing the battle lines. At that time, a momentum for an Intifada was taking shape in the West Bank following an increase in Israeli army and settler violence against Palestinians. The war on Gaza managed to change the narrative of that budding conflict into an Israeli war aimed at defending its own borders, as Israeli hasbara dictated. Israel is now relying on the assumption that Hamas would avoid, at least for now, a repeat of that scenario which cost Palestinians over 2,200 lives and thousands of wounded and maimed, let alone the massive destruction of the already impoverished Strip.

Third, Arabs are consumed with their own regional fights, whether for political or sectarian domination. Almost every Arab country is somehow, either fully or partially, involved or is affected by the various wars and conflicts under way in Syria, Libya, Egypt’s Sinai, Iraq and Yemen. The supposedly successful Tunisian model is suffering its own fallout, too, from militant violence, whether homegrown or that which spills over from violent borders.

Previous intifadas succeeded, or so goes the Israeli logic, because of Arab backing. But the most that Arabs have done is to pay lip service and nothing more. In fact, if the PA itself is keen on spoiling popular Palestinian initiatives, little can be expected of the Arabs, who are busy fighting one another.

However, the Israeli argument is, as has always been the case, narrow-minded in its view of history, or it conveniently applies history to fit whatever political argument Israeli officials or mouthpieces deem handy. Just a few weeks ago, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, absolved the Nazis from the idea behind the Holocaust and pinned the blame on the Palestinian Mufti instead.

Previous intifadas, but more importantly the 1987 ‘Intifada of the stones’, was not constructed as a strategy for liberation, but was a spontaneous reaction to a series of Israeli provocations, and the adjacent failure of the Palestinian leadership, all positioned within the larger context of the ongoing Israeli occupation.

Palestinians do not revolt when ‘the time is right’ for them to do so, but whenever their collective suffering has culminated to the point that they cannot be silenced anymore.

Those, whether Israeli or even Palestinian intellectuals, who opine about the need for the intifada to do this or that, change directions or tactics, stop altogether or move forward, are simply unable to understand that the momentum of a collective struggle cannot be dictated from above.

This is not to argue that a grassroots, genuine Palestinian leadership that operates outside the confines of fatalism and defeat as demonstrated by the PA is not a necessary step needed to galvanize the popular efforts. But that is a decision to be taken by the youth themselves, and its timing and nature should be determined based on their own reckoning.

The Israelis are counting on their shoot to kill policy. The Palestinian leadership is waiting for the anger to fizzle out before resuming its endless quest for a frivolous peace process and financial handouts. The Intifada itself, however, operates on the basis of an entirely different arithmetic: a collective spirit that can neither be intimidated by violence nor procured by funds.

In fact this is precisely why the Intifada started in the first place and, as long as the factors that led to its inception remain in place, it, too, is likely to continue and escalate, not for the sake of liberating Palestine through some magic formula, but for the urgent need to regain national initiative, redefine priorities and a new sense of collective, as Palestinian first and foremost.

The Fallen Russian Jet: Appeasements And Spirals – Analysis

$
0
0

By Egehan H. Altınbay*

At a time when various strategies regarding how to effectively formulate the combat against ISIS and scenarios concerning the future reshaping of Syrian domestic political status were being discussed among the related parties, Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian military jet on 24 November 2015 came as a shock; since it was marked as the first downing of a Russian warplane in the post-Cold War period by a NATO country, an event which was last observed in 1952 when US and Soviet aircrafts exchanged fire over the Yalu River, during the Korean War. [1]

The shooting down of the Russian warplane in the middle of already heated tensions was surely an unexpected, rare, and confusing event – or was it? The assessment of the incident through the conceptual frame of the perception-misperception model, however, does not indicate so, and thereby assists us in reaching a reasonable answer to the inquiries regarding why the Russia-Turkey roulette over Syria reached such a culminating point, and what to expect in the future. By stressing the influences of perception and false understanding of credibility within state behavior, a close examination of the event clarifies how the Russian-Turkish response patterns evolved from a failed deterrence into a more complicated spiral of active punishment and escalation.

Misperception, Appeasement, and False Beliefs in International Politics

The occurrence of a conflict and its intensification in international relations is attributed to the existence of diverse conditions; however, there is one major element that is truly crucial in the ideational sparking of the contention – the issue of misperception, specifically when a false understanding of state motives prompts unexpected responses or reactions.[2]
Two major issues aggravate the conflict-prone action-reaction cycle. One may arise when a state falsely anticipates that appeasement will bring out a more favorable response from the other side, actually triggers the opposite. This instance occurs when the other state, believing that the appeaser is weak in capability, credible deterrence, or resolve, dismisses its warnings and presses harder to gain more concessions, prestige, or influence. This reaction from the other state eventually results in forcing the appeaser to decide whether to back down or to implement a harsh response in order to display its ability and willingness to wage war when a particular threshold is reached. It is noteworthy to indicate that if a backed-down appeaser at some point decides not to further retreat, it would face more difficulty in inducing the other that it is now more determined than before, thereby, seeking the adoption of harsher response policies to signal that its stance has changed. The second type of escalation occurs following an act of punishment, when a state expects or misperceives that a punishing behavior will result in better outcomes. Such an instance takes place when the punishment triggers the transpiration of an insecurity spiral, as the punished state, not dissuaded by the punishment and angered by infliction, responds more boldly to protect its interests, expecting that it needs to dissuade the other from inflicting further punishment, thereby heightening the tensions.

The Downing of the Russian Jet

The Turkish-Russian strategic interaction that witnessed tensions following the initiation of the Russian bombing campaign in Syria is observed to be an example of the former reaction cycle, while the temporal dimension of the bilateral relations from the downing of the Russian plane and onwards provides an example to the latter. An analysis of events from the last two months displays how Turkey’s appeasement policy, based on the belief that Russia would comply with Turkish warnings, failed to restrain Russian actions, as diplomatic notifications, NATO meetings, scrambles, and even shooting down a drone did not force Russia to back down. It is possible to argue that, on the contrary, Turkey’s beliefs and actions actually led Russia to adopt a more aggressive policy, since it perceived that it could coerce or intimidate its counterpart, gain concessions, or press further for curbing of the Turkish influence over Syria. Hence, it is possible to argue that Russia, in some ways, assessed that Turkey is actually not credible in terms of implementing its threat of using the rules of engagement, or Turkey is simply weak in confronting a more capable Russia.

If Turkey’s statements, despite heavy probing of Russian aircrafts in Turkish airspace, are taken into consideration – for instance, the ones related to the Russian violations of Turkish airspace on the 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th, and 16th of October as well as on the 20th of November – it is possible to observe that Turkey adopted a pacification policy to ease the tensions and tried to enhance its credibility to deter Russia. Such a strategic approach was marked by the Turkish statements such as: “violation should not be repeated or the Russian Federation will be responsible for any undesired incident” or “the crisis in Syria is not a Turkish-Russian one and we do not want this to turn into a Russia-NATO crisis”.[3] Despite these declarations, and even after Turkey shot down a Russian drone and demanded an immediate NATO meeting, Russia not only rebuffed Turkey’s demands but also possibly misperceived Turkey’s appeasement policy to cool down tensions as a weakness, and therefore, perceiving it to be a non-credible threat to its presence.

These events and statements imply that Turkey’s expectation that appeasement would elicit better behavior from the Russians actually produced the opposite. For the Russians, possessing the belief that a non-credible deterrent, indeterminate, or an appeasing Turkey can be further suppressed through increased provocations provided them the ideational foundation to enhance their own influence over Northern Syria. Even though Turkey attempted to abandon this policy several times after perceiving that its threats fell on the deaf ears of Russia, the government found it difficult to re-present its determination and credibility. For this reason, Turkey sought a bold move to signal the Russians that it is actually resolute and unwavering. Thus, the plane-downing event was the culminating point of this action-reaction process, since Turkey, now aware that it had failed to deter Russia with warnings, and the appeasement policy produced outcomes favorable for Russia, sought to reassert its deterrent capacity through such an operation.

Repercussions to Future Events

In reference to the conceptual framework discussed above, it is possible to argue that after the downing of the Russian jet, Turkish-Russian tensions began to move away from the appeasement policy model and entered into an insecurity spiral phase. Turkey’s punishing move clearly angered Russia and led to a counter move in the form of the deployment of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. Theoretical prescriptions within the International Relations Theory assert that, assuming both states have correctly read each other’s motives and intentions, there are two pathways that might be preferred henceforth. The first option is seeking conciliation and downgrading the spiral via assurances, mediation, and confidence building. The second strategy is to play an escalation game, which either heightens the tensions until one side backs down due to the threat of war, or ultimately ends with both sides accepting open conflict. Hence, it is up to the Turkish and Russian decision makers to evaluate the utilities of these two distant strategies and choose the most prudent pathway.

*Egehan H. Altınbay is a PhD candidate at Middle East Technical University, Department of International Relations.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/11/24/the-last-time-a-russian-jet-was-shot-down-by-a-nato-jet-was-in-1952/
[2] On the theoretical conceptualization of these concepts see: Robert Jervis. “War and Misperception” in The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars, ed. Robert I Rotberg & Theodore K. Rabb (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), 101-127.
[3] http://www.janes.com/article/55013/turkey-scrambles-fighters-as-russian-warplane-violates-airspace

California: 14 Killed And 17 Wounded In Shooting, Two Suspects Dead

$
0
0

At least 14 people were killed and 17 others wounded on Wednesday when three people burst into a handicapped training center in San Bernardino, California and started shooting.

Hours later, police shot and killed two of the suspects in a neighborhood nearby Redlands, California when officers spotted an SUV in which the gunmen escaped. One officer was wounded and is expected to survive.

San Bernardino Police Chief Jarrod Burguan say the two dead suspects are a man and a woman dressed in assault-style clothing and armed with assault rifles and handguns. There is no information on who they are or their relationship to each other.

The third suspect was arrested while trying to run away from the shootout at the SUV. Burguan says it is unclear if he was one of the wanted gunmen or just someone who was trying to scramble to safety.

Chief Burguan described the shootings as a case of “domestic terrorism,” but said he does not know what the motive might have been. He said the possibility of a workplace dispute is being looked at. Burguan did not say if the dead and wounded worked at the handicapped center or were clients

An FBI official on the scene said he is unwilling to say at this time if the attack had anything to do with international terrorism. He said the investigation has uncovered what he described as potential leads that could point in that direction, but said authorities will go where the evidence takes them.

San Bernardino is about an hour east of Los Angeles. San Bernardino Police Chief Jarrod Burguan told reporters the shooters came to the training center prepared to kill. Burguan said they used what he called “long guns.”

The facility where the shooting took place, the Inland Regional Center, was founded more than 40 years ago to help people with developmental disabilities.

In comments to CBS television, President Barack Obama said the U.S. has a pattern of mass shootings that has no parallel anywhere else in the world.

He said there are steps that can be taken to make Americans safer, adding that officials in every level of government should come together on a bipartisan basis to make such shootings rare instead of normal.

The two leading U.S. presidential candidates reacted by Twitter. Democrat Hillary Clinton said she refuses “to accept this as normal. We must take action to stop gun violence now.”

With details still coming in, Republican Donald Trump said the shooting “looks very bad.” He wished good luck to officers on the scene and said this is when police are “so appreciated.”

This shooting comes less than a week after a gunman killed three people and wounded nine in a shooting rampage at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado Springs, Colorado. In October, a gunman killed nine people at a college in Oregon and in June a white gunman killed nine black churchgoers in South Carolina.

Crude Oil Storage Capacity And Inventories Have Increased In Cushing, Oklahoma And PADD 3 – Analysis

$
0
0

Commercial crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma (located in Petroleum Administration for Defense District, or PADD, 2) and the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) totaled a record high 309.4 million barrels as of the week ending November 27 (Figure 1). Based on the recently released storage capacity and line fill data in the September Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM), EIA estimates 70.2% utilization of working crude oil storage capacity in Cushing, Oklahoma and PADD 3 on a combined basis. This utilization level is only slightly below the record set in the week ending April 24 of this year.

While often assessed separately, looking at the combined utilization of storage capacity in Cushing and PADD 3 is currently relevant, given the increased pipeline capacity to move crude oil from Cushing to the Gulf Coast—reflected in the recently low Brent-WTI spread—during a time of high global crude oil inventory builds. Despite relatively high crude oil inventories and crude oil storage capacity utilization, there is still more than 100 million barrels of capacity available within the two areas.twip151202fig1-lg

 

For much of 2013-14, both WTI and Brent were in backwardation, meaning that near-term prices were higher than those for longer-term delivery (Figure 2). However, the backwardation in WTI prices was more pronounced and variable than for Brent prices. This difference reflected steady crude inventory declines at Cushing as a result of increasing pipeline takeaway capacity to bring crude from Cushing storage to refineries on the Gulf Coast for processing. From mid-2013 through mid-2014, Cushing inventories mostly declined and PADD 3 inventories were regularly above the historical five-year average, as crude oil movements from PADD 2 to PADD 3 increased sharply (Figure 3).twip151202fig2-lg

twip151202fig3-lgIn mid-2014, as a result of global crude supply outpacing demand, the Brent price moved to contango, with current month prices lower than the thirteenth month forward price. A similar dynamic with WTI prices was slower to emerge because PADD 3 inventories were falling, and Cushing levels were very low, putting upward pressure on near-month WTI prices. WTI prices did not enter contango until the fourth quarter of 2014, following a sharp drop-off in both Brent and WTI prices. As WTI entered contango late in 2014, Cushing inventories began to increase again, and have been above the five-year range since early March. However, trade press reports that ample takeaway capacity now exists to move crude oil from Cushing to the Gulf Coast. The recent build in Cushing inventories reflects the WTI contango, and not a lack of infrastructure. Since September, the monthly average Brent-WTI spread has been about $2 per barrel.

EIA has published net available shell and working crude oil storage capacity data with the March and September PSM releases since September 2010. However, until recently, calculating an effective utilization rate for this capacity was difficult. Simply dividing EIA’s total commercial inventories by working capacity overestimated utilization because the inventory data include crude oil not stored in tanks, such as that held in pipelines (pipeline fill). As of the March 2015 release, EIA now publishes more granular data indicating estimated pipeline fill, improving the utilization calculation. Total working capacity is often the best measure of total available storage since it excludes tank bottoms and contingency space.

Crude oil working storage capacity in Cushing and PADD 3 increased by a total of 6.6 million barrels (1.8%) between March 31 and September 30 of this year. At just over 70%, total utilization remains relatively high compared with utilization rates during 2011 through 2014, which were mostly below 60% for Cushing, Oklahoma and PADD 3. Since March 2011 working crude oil storage capacity in the United States has increased by 95.6 million barrels. Most of the increase in capacity was in Cushing, Oklahoma and PADD 3, with build-outs of 25.0 million barrels and 55.7 million barrels, respectively. Combined Cushing, Oklahoma and PADD 3 accounted for about 84.5% of the increase in storage capacity since March 2011.

U.S. average gasoline and diesel fuel prices decline

The U.S. average retail regular gasoline price fell four cents from the prior week to $2.06 per gallon on November 30, 2015, down 72 cents from the same time last year. The Midwest price decreased six cents to $1.88 per gallon, while the Rocky Mountain price declined four cents to $2.05 per gallon. The Gulf Coast and West Coast prices were both down three cents, to $1.82 per gallon and $2.55 per gallon, respectively. The East Coast price decreased two cents to $2.09 per gallon.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price decreased two cents from the previous week to $2.42 per gallon, down $1.18 from the same time last year. The West Coast, Midwest, and Gulf Coast prices were each down three cents, to $2.62 per gallon, $2.41 per gallon, and $2.25 per gallon, respectively. The Rocky Mountain price declined two cents to $2.45 per gallon, and the East Coast price decreased one cent to $2.46 per gallon.

Propane inventories fall

U.S. propane stocks decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week to 104.1 million barrels as of November 27, 2015, 24.7 million barrels (31.1%) higher than a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels. Midwest inventories fell by 0.2 million barrels, and East Coast inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 3.0% of total propane inventories.

Residential heating oil price decreases while propane price increases

As of November 30, 2015, residential heating oil prices averaged $2.36 per gallon, nearly 2 cents per gallon below last week and almost 97 cents lower than one year ago. The average wholesale heating oil price this week was just shy of $1.43 per gallon, 1 cent higher than last week and $1.07 per gallon lower than a year ago.

Residential propane prices averaged just under $1.96 per gallon, almost 1 cent per gallon higher than last week’s price and 45 cents lower than one year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged slightly over 50 cents per gallon, more than 1 cent per gallon higher than last week and 43 cents lower than last year’s price for the same week.


The New ASEAN Community In Mirror Of European Community – Analysis

$
0
0

By Niccolo Beduschi*

The recent 27th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Kuala Lumpur has announced the establishment of the ASEAN Community by the end of the year, marking the culmination of a decades-long effort to integrate the region. In the words of Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, the ASEAN is “a body with one vision, and one identity; an association that will be reborn as One Community, ready to take its place on the world stage as a new force in the Asia-Pacific and beyond”.

The foundation of the ASEAN Community invites the comparison with the European Union, and in particular its mid-Community phase. However, the complex integrational paths within the EU and ASEAN up to date seems to be only superficially similar, with some hope of more substantial convergence in the future.

In structural terms, the ASEAN Community is actually comprised of three pillars, namely the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (that will not be explored in this article for reasons of its scarce depth), the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) and the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Each pillar has developed on the path of a specific ‘Blueprint’ from 2009 to 2015 and now in a renewed version from 2016 to 2025, as part of the general ASEAN Community Vision 2025.

Before the Lisbon Treaty of 2007, the European Union was itself divided along three pillars: the European Communities (of which the former European Economic Community is the most relevant element), the Common Foreign and Security Policy and Police and Judicial Co-operation in Criminal Matters. In a creative effort, thematically, the Socio-Cultural and the economic dimension of the ASEAN can be transferred under the first pillar of the European Union, while the ASEAN Political-Security Community is divided in the last two pillars.

In a thematic approach, starting with the security community, it is possible to see how both the EU and ASEAN have started to develop early on in their history with security policy. However, while in Europe the so called Brussels Treaty of 1948 already sanctioned the principle of collective defence, ASEAN made in 1971 a mere declaration of neutrality, and one of amity in 1976. It is important to note that the Brussels treaty and its implications was not incorporated in the European Union until the Lisbon Treaty of 2007. Therefore, the EU and ASEAN did not, legally speaking, differ greatly in their ‘Community phase’ regarding collective defence.

On the other end, it can be argued that under the second pillar of the EU, the Common Foreign and Security Policy clause was considered implicit because of overlapping of the membership with NATO. The EU indeed moved further on in the scale of security integration. The EU established in 1999 a High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy and quick deployment ‘battle groups’ of 60.000 troops. The Union could launch its first military operation, Operation Concordia, in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, in December 2003 and to develop its capabilities the European Defence Agency was created in 2004.

The ASEAN is not expected to meet such integration by 2025. ASEAN devised its first Blueprint for the APSC for the 2009-2015 period based on “the principle of comprehensive security” through norm setting, conflict resolution and post-conflict peace building. The focus seemed to rest on intrastate and transnational security issues of which the most concrete manifestation are the 2013 military exercises in the areas of humanitarian assistance and disaster, military medicine, counter-terrorism and maritime security. The 2016-2025 Blueprint adds little to previous with an ASEAN Plan of Action to Combat Transnational Crimes covering, inter alia, money laundering, sea piracy, cybercrime and trafficking with the ASEAN Convention Against Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children. Maritime security is also enhanced with the specific mentions of the South China Sea and China in the framework of a doctrine of self-restraint. The lack of a collective defence agreement in the Southeast Asian region, including through proxy organizations, incapacitate the implementation of measures that amount to more than confidence building.

The most developed and central pillar of the ASEAN Community as well as for the European Union is the Economic Community with the flagship project of the Single Market. Beyond the resemblance in the titles, the choice of words differs at closer inspection. While the European and the ASEAN single markets agree in principle in the free flow of goods, services and capital, they differ when it comes to people. While the EU mentions simply ‘people’ as the first of the ‘four freedoms’ of its market, the ASEAN refers to ‘skilled labour’ in its official documents.

Although nine out of ten ASEAN Member-States citizens enjoy visa-free travel in the region and eight skills mobility oriented mutual recognition arrangements have been concluded in the region, this hardly compares to the total freedom of movement that citizens enjoys in the borderless Europe.

The differences run deeper in the nature of the two frameworks and two economic theories can help explain it. The first theory is the classical Balassa stage approach of economic integration where five sequential stages are devised: free trade area, custom union, common market, economic or monetary union and total economic integration with fiscal policy. While the EU, with the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community, provided for the creation of the first three steps of the Balassa model, the ASEAN moved seemingly directly from the first step to the third, ignoring the custom union step, which is not a goal in the ASEAN Economic Blueprint 2016-2025.

Without a custom union, a genuine common market cannot be created as a member-state like Thailand with an external tariff of 43.2 per cent would not allow external goods to flow in its market through another member-state like Singapore that has virtual no external tariff, bypassing the external tariff of the former. The second economic theory to understand the nature of the ASEAN single market is in the distinction between positive and negative integration where the former stand for the active transfer of powers to common institutions while the latter stand for the removal of barriers and discrimination in national economic rules.

In other words, it is the difference between removing rules and making rules, such agreeing on a common external tariff. Normally, both positive and negative integration are expected to fulfil a European-like integration, however, in the ASEAN case, the negative element can be predominantly witnessed which results is a shallow integration or mere trade liberalization.

The degree of institutionalisation of the two organisations is the key variable to explain most of the variations in terms of integration. Within ASEAN there is no Southeast Asian equivalent of a European Commission, nor of the Parliament or of the Court of Justice; supranational authorities to deal with decision making, law-making, enforcement and resolution of disputes. ASEAN has indeed a secretariat based in Jakarta, however its powers are mostly logistical and figurative with most of the Organization relaying on the ‘ASEAN way’ which emphasizes informality and consensus with the avoidance of binding agreements and regulatory frameworks as well as the principle of national sovereignty and non-interference.

In conclusion, the ASEAN and the European ways to build a community seem not to meet, yet. There is no single model for integration, and models are not pure, as the EU itself has a strong intergovernmental dimension, but ASEAN’s evolution have always been looking at the European experience. ASEAN is European in the words it uses, in its appeal to community building and values, including human rights with its ASEAN Human Rights Declaration. ASEAN increasingly stresses in its documents its move towards a rules-based Community while reinforcing the Secretariat and reiterating the centrality of ASEAN in international processes. The pace and the ambitions of the ASEAN Community building cannot be ignored, but the underlying problem of the mismatch between expectations and reality remains.

*The writer is a Researcher at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Hybrid Warfare With Chinese Characteristics – Analysis

$
0
0

In the evolution of China’s strategic thought, the centrality of information has been a perennial constant as a tool of statecraft and military power. Beijing is exploiting information operations to direct influence in areas of strategic competition.

By Michael Raska*

While China’s foreign policy has traditionally relied on economic leverage and “soft power” diplomacy as its primary means of power projection, Beijing has been also actively exploiting concepts associated with strategic information operations as a means to direct influence on the process and outcome in areas of strategic competition.

In 2003, the Central Military Commission (CMC) approved the guiding conceptual umbrella for information operations for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – the “Three Warfares” (san zhong zhanfa). The concept is based on three mutually-reinforcing strategies: (1) the coordinated use of strategic psychological operations, (2) overt and covert media manipulation, and (3) legal warfare designed to manipulate strategies, defense policies, and perceptions of target audiences abroad.

Operationalising the “Three Warfares”

At the operational level, the “Three Warfares” became the responsibility for the PLA’s General Political Department’s Liaison Department (GPD/LD) that conducts diverse political, financial, military, and intelligence operations. According to the Project2049 Institute, GPD/LD consists of four bureaus: (1) a liaison bureau responsible for clandestine Taiwan-focused operations; (2) an investigation and research bureau responsible for international security analysis and friendly contact; (3) external propaganda bureau responsible for disintegration operations, including psychological operations, development of propaganda themes, and legal analysis; and (4) a border defense bureau responsible for managing border negotiations and agreements. The Ministry of National Defence of the PRC provides more general articles, emphasising “information weaponisation and military social media strategy.”

In practice, the GPD/LD is also linked with the PLA General Staff Department (GSD) 2nd Department-led intelligence network. One of its core activities is identifying select foreign political, business, and military elites and organisations abroad relevant to China’s interests or potential “friendly contacts.” The GPD/LD investigation and research bureau then analyses their position toward China, career trajectories, motivations, political orientations, factional affiliations, and competencies.

The resulting “cognitive maps” guide the direction and character of tailored influence operations, including conversion, exploitation, or subversion. Meanwhile, the GPD’s Propaganda Department broadcasts sustained internal and external strategic perception management campaigns through mass media and cyberspace channels to promote specific themes favourable for China’s image abroad – political stability, peace, ethnic harmony, and economic prosperity supporting the narrative of the “China model” (zhongguo moshi).
Agents of influence

Traditionally, the primary target for China’s information and political warfare campaigns has been Taiwan, with the GPD-LD activities and operations attempting to exploit political, cultural, and social frictions inside Taiwan, undermining trust between varying political-military authorities, delegitimising Taiwan’s international position, and gradually subverting Taiwan’s public perceptions to “reunite” Taiwan on Beijing’s terms. In the process, the GPD-LD has directed, managed, or guided a number of political, military, academic, media, and intelligence assets that have either overtly or covertly served as agents of influence.

In particular, the primary base for Taiwan influence operations has been the Nanjing Military Region’s 311 Base (also known as the Public Opinion, Psychological Operations, and Legal Warfare Base) in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province. The 311 Base has been broadcasting propaganda at Taiwan through the “Voice of the Taiwan Strait” (VTS) radio since the 1950s. Over the past decade, the Base expanded its operations from the radio station to variety of social media, publishing, businesses and other areas of contact with Taiwan.

The 311 Base has served as a de-facto military unit cover designator (MUCD) for a number of GPD-LD’s affiliated civilian and business platforms working to “promote Chinese culture” abroad. These include the China Association for Promotion of Chinese Culture (CAPCC); China Association for Friendly International Contacts (CAIFC); China-U.S. Exchange Foundation (CUSEF), The Centre for Peace and Development Studies (CPDS), External Propaganda Bureau (EPB), and China Energy Fund Committee (CEFC).

The case of CEFC in Europe

China’s strategic influence operations are also increasingly targeting the European Union, particularly countries of Central-Eastern Europe that are part of China’s ‘16+1’ regional cooperation formula. Beijing views the region as an important bridgehead for its further economic expansion in Europe. According to the 2014 annual report of the BIS counter-intelligence in the Czech Republic, China´s administration and its intelligence services put an emphasis on gaining influence on Czech political and state structures and on gathering of political intelligence, with active participation by select Czech elites, including politicians and state officials.

These reports refer to the activities of the China Energy Fund Committee (CEFC) – a Hong Kong registered non-governmental organisation, considered as a political arm of its holding subsidiary the China Huaxin Energy Co. Ltd – a multibillion-dollar energy conglomerate with companies based in Hong Kong, Singapore, and mainland China. Over the past three years, CEFC has embarked on acquisitions in the Czech Republic, including the purchase of representative real estate near the Presidential Office. These ‘investments’ have served as initial gateways to the highest political elites in the country. Indeed, CEFC’s chairman Ye Jianming was named an official adviser by the Czech President.

The case of CEFC in Czech Republic illustrates a complex constellation of relationships that link political, financial, military, and intelligence power centres through the GPD-LD. CEFC’s Chairman Ye Jianming was deputy secretary general of the GPD-LD’s affiliated China Association for International Friendly Contacts (CAIFC) from 2003-05. Media reports debate whether Ye Jianming is a son of Lt. Gen. Ye Xuanning, Director of the GPD-LD until 1998, and the grandson of one the most revered PLA Marshall Ye Jianying, described as “the spiritual leader” of the princelings – the children of China’s original communist revolutionary heroes, who now dominate the top echelons of the party leadership.

The exploitation of information operations represents Beijing’s hybrid or “non-kinetic” attempts to direct influence in strategic areas of competition in Asia and Europe.

*Michael Raska is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Killer White Men And The People Who Love Them – OpEd

$
0
0

Only a white man can kill three people in cold blood and still be described as a “gentle loner who occasionally unleashed violent acts toward neighbors and women he knew.” (*link FAIR) Such was the case with Robert L. Dear Jr., a perpetrator of mass murder in Colorado Springs, Colorado. The New York Times was the vehicle for humanizing the shooter. This same newspaper felt obliged to point out that Ferguson murder victim Michael Brown was “no angel.”

There is a depressing regularity to shootings committed by angry white men in the United States. The most recent murders occurred in Colorado Springs, Colorado where Dear murdered a police officer and two other people. Dear committed his crimes at a Planned Parenthood facility. Planned Parenthood has become the obsession of the right wing, with Republican presidential candidates outdoing one another in their promises to put it out of business altogether. The constant drum beat against abortion in general and Planned Parenthood in particular appears to have pushed Dear over the edge and into a murderous rage.

Dear certainly fit the profile. He lived alone in a mountain trailer, had run-ins with neighbors and made violent threats. He was accused of being a peeping tom and may have sought S&M partners online.

But those facts may be too facile in explaining Dear’s acts. In the final analysis Dear acted the way too many white men do. They believe they are entitled to be violent but they are not being illogical in reaching that conclusion. States like Colorado with gun loving cultures enable the sickness. Dear’s killing spree was not even the first in Colorado Springs this year. On October 31st another white man randomly shot and killed three people and set a building on fire for good measure. When a witness attempted to report the impending crime she was told that the state’s open carry law prevented the police from investigating. Of course they did after the carnage was over.

These individuals may have mental health disorders, histories of substance abuse or past trauma but in the final analysis they have been given carte blanche to act out in whatever way they choose because of white skin privilege. Their life stories may help explain their actions, but essentially being a white man is at the root of their problems.

Recent studies have shown that middle aged white men like Dear are killing themselves indirectly with life style choices. They are drinking, drugging and engaging in other behaviors which are causing premature deaths. The loss of status they once enjoyed is too much for them, even though as a group they are better off than black people are. Apparently the whole world is better off with the non-violent yet still suicidal white person. They only take themselves out.

In the coming days and weeks we will be subjected to ultimately useless debate about gun control and how abortion is discussed. The president was first out of the gate when he declared in sonorous tones, “This is not normal.” Unfortunately it is all too normal because we never get an honest discussion about the illness which pervades American society, white supremacy.

On the same day that Dear wrought havoc in Colorado, another white man in Mississippi shot a restaurant waitress who asked him not to smoke. In between claims of shock and surprise one friend felt compelled to say of the killer, “He was a good person. He wasn’t a monster.” Cold blooded killing is quite monstrous, but even in that act whiteness trumps everything else and the benefit of the doubt is always given.

In the final analysis, nothing is done about gun violence because white people want to keep their guns. Occasionally they too are victimized but that is a risk they are willing to take. The history of white mob violence against black communities would often read like this. “Twenty-five negroes and two white men killed.” The deaths of two white men may have been lamented but not enough to change group behavior. A loss here and there was considered worth the price of maintaining the hierarchy of white terror.

It isn’t surprising that Dear and his ilk feel entitled to kill. When they do they are called gentle loners. Their families are viewed sympathetically. The New York Times referenced his ex-wife’s weeping blue eyes, just to make certain that readers didn’t forget she is white. They also quoted her as calling him “an imperfect but good man.”

These mass killers know that police have a license to kill, the political system and their culture urge them to be armed and even if they become less gentle they will still be seen as victims instead of villains. They all want to be part of that well-regulated militia in the Second Amendment of the Constitution, the slave patrol that still exists. The rest of their society talks out of both sides of the mouth, hand wringing when the bullets fly but still giving them a pass. After all it must be difficult to vilify a gentle, imperfect, occasionally violent person.

Austria Says Southern Gas Corridor Is Key Project For Europe

$
0
0

By Anakhanum Khidayatova

Austria’s economy is by 80 percent dependent on imports of gas. Austria calls the Azerbaijani Southern Gas Corridor as a key project in the diversification of energy supplies of Europe.

“Azerbaijan intends to become an energy hub with different pipelines and energy resources coming not only from its fields, but also from Turkmenistan and maybe Iran,” Ambassador of Austria to Azerbaijan Axel Wech said in an exclusive interview with Trend Dec. 2.

The ambassador thinks that Azerbaijan needs more roads, railways, hospitals to be constructed to place itself into a position of a transit country.

He underlined again that Austrian companies are very strong in this field.

Azerbaijan will start supplying some 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year from the Shah Deniz field to Europe via the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) and Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) in 2019-2020.

The ambassador believes that sooner or later a bigger pipeline than Trans Adriatic Pipeline will be necessary.

TAP’s initial capacity will be 10 billion cubic meters per year, expandable to 20 billion cubic meters per year.

The diplomat stressed the Austrian side’s interest in expanding business in Azerbaijan.

The ambassador also noted that there are plenty of opportunities for Austrian business in Azerbaijan in the fields of construction, agriculture, service sector and education.

“ Austria is very strong in the above mentioned areas and we would like to share our experience with Azerbaijan,” he said.

“Austrian companies had been involved in construction of a new Carpet Museum, of “SHAHDAG” summer winter resort in Gusar, Azerbaijan, in some projects in the Old City of Baku ; we would like to continue working in this area,” he said.

The ambassador also said that supporting of small and medium size business would be beneficial for Azerbaijani economy.

“We would like to work with smaller companies, they are usually more flexible and faster”, he said.

He also noted that relations between two countries are also developing in the spheres of culture, tourism and education.

“We plan to bring to Azerbaijan our schooling system in the field tourism; to train cooks, service personal and hotel managers,” he said.

The ambassador also said that despite Azerbaijan is an interesting destination for tourism it needs to be wider promoted in European tourism markets.

“More promotion, facilitating of visa regime and more quality services would contribute to tourism development in Azerbaijan,” he said.

According to the Azerbaijani State Customs Committee, the trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Austria amounted to nearly $ 420 million in January-October 2015. Some $70 million of this amount accounted for import, while almost $350 million – export from Azerbaijan.

Adobe Hammers Another Nail Into Flash’s Coffin

$
0
0

Flash, the age-old internet plugin that Steve Jobs hated, has moved another step closer to extinction, Digital Spy said.

Platform holder Adobe is encouraging content creators to drop the technology in favour of more modern web standards like HTML5.

“Today, open standards like HTML5 have matured and provide many of the capabilities that Flash ushered in,” said the firm in a statement.

“Looking ahead, we encourage content creators to build with new web standards and will continue to focus on providing the best tools and services for designers and developers.”

Adobe isn’t dropping Flash entirely… yet. The plugin will be renamed Animate CC and remain supported into 2016.

The company’s shift away from Flash comes as no surprise given that its popularity is fizzling out – the likes of YouTube, Firefox and McAfee Labs won’t touch it with a barge pole.

Critics of Flash argue that it leaves users open to security vulnerabilities and demands high memory usage, but it remains popular as a means of creating interactive video for the web.

Italy: 4 Jihadists Arrested For Threats Against Pope Francis, No Specific Plot Known

$
0
0

Four alleged terrorist sympathizers who made internet threats against Pope Francis have been arrested. While Italian authorities described them as “highly dangerous,” they said they did not appear to be involved in any specific plot.

“They were threatening the Pope, celebrating the recent attacks in Paris and threatening the former U.S. ambassador to Kosovo,” said Carmine Esposito, a police chief in the northern Italian city of Brescia.

They were arrested on suspicion of “condoning terrorism” and inciting racial hatred, Reuters reports. Their online threats included claims that Francis will be the last Pope.

Four people with citizenship in the Balkan country of Kosovo were arrested Dec. 1 in Italy and Kosovo. Italian police carried out raids in the cities of Brescia, Vicenza and Perugia, the Italian newspaper The Local reports.

Two of the suspects will be expelled from Italy, while a third will be placed under special surveillance. The alleged group leader arrested in Kosovo had combat experience outside the country.

Police said that the alleged terrorist team was a “highly dangerous group” that “propagated the ideology of jihad through social networks.” The team allegedly has links to jihadists in Syria.

The arrests followed a tip from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation.

In the wake of the Islamic State group’s Nov. 13 attacks in Paris which killed over 120 people, the U.S. Embassy in Rome on Nov. 18 warned that St. Peter’s Basilica, Milan’s cathedral, and other prominent locations were potential targets for attack.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, told French daily La Croix that the Vatican could be a target of attacks because of its religious significance and that it was capable of increasing its security.

In the interview, published Nov. 15, Cardinal Parolin also said: “we will not let ourselves be paralyzed by fear.”

Russia, Hungary, And The Quest For Grandeur – Analysis

$
0
0

By John R. Haines*

Grandeur is a term associated ineluctably with Charles de Gaulle, though interestingly, not one he ever explicitly defined. It is premised on a set of historical and political myths, which de Gaulle wrote compensate for France’s military and geographical vulnerability. While the Gaullist conception of grandeur intended to reestablish and validate the image of national greatness, it is a two-edged sword. Some discern Gaullist undertones in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s political rhetoric, filtered through traditional themes of Orthodoxy, autocracy, and nationhood. This essay explores and tests that suggestion through the lens of Mr. Putin’s narrative about Russia, which he once called “a destiny, not a project.” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also promotes a characterizing national destiny. Mr. Orbán’s critics dismiss his conception of grandeur — Hungarian exceptionalism — as owing more to classic fascism than to Gaullism. That caustic appraisal fails to account fully, however, for what Mr. Orbán’s declaration, “We Hungarians are the Continent’s Gaullists,” signals to Hungarians and non-Hungarians alike.

“Knowledge,” wrote Michel Foucault, “is formed by looking for signs and detecting correspondence.” This is how Mr. Putin and Mr. Orbán form their respective political narratives, by drawing on familiar myths and identities to underpin a defining national grandeur. Philip Cerny wrote that General de Gaulle “built his ‘certain idea of nationhood’ out of a kind of bricolage of historical anecdotes and into a structured myth with direct relevance and application to contemporary problems.” So, too, Messrs. Putin and Orbán. Cerny introduces Claude Lévi-Strauss’ concept of bricolage, or the figurative cobbling together of seemingly disparate historic events and political myths. Its practitioner, the bricoleur, contextualizes events to structure national (sometimes expressed as ethnical) identity. These events are signs, and it is the bricoleur — here, both Mr. Putin and Mr. Orbán — who deals in them. Today’s contention over borders, boundaries and migration is replete with perverted expressions of grandeur that signal the reemergence of belligerent national and ethnical identities and threaten Europe-wide contagion.

Introduction

This essay began in part a reflection on two others, one a decade-old commentary and the other, a 1997 scholarly paper. “The Self-Pride Spigot” is a December 2005 commentary by Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.[2] It begins:

“France’s awareness of its own greatness — real or illusory—was crucial to the nation’s survival at critical historic moments. The revival of French grandeur twice engaged the greatest of its 20th century leaders — Charles de Gaulle.  Following France’s defeat in 1940 and the collapse of its empire in the early 1960s, the General strove for his humbled nation to once feel great and mighty.”

Notwithstanding the decline of French power and influence in the world, writes Lukyanov, “the people live with a sense of their moral superiority, by which French society and the nation as a whole maintain a balanced national identity.”

The spigot of the commentary’s title — literally, “the oil and gas valve”[3] — is a metaphor for the release of Russia’s “almost limitless energy resource potential,” and figuratively, for the renewal of Russian national pride. Lukyanov warns this can be a dangerous illusion. Russia’s energy sector may “restore its great power status,” but at what price, he asks. “What about our great history, culture and science? Is all this outweighed by a mere pipeline?” He ends with a reflection:

“Perhaps to develop normally as a people, Russians, like the French, still need to feel part of a great nation. There are many different ways to achieve this, however. The realization that one’s greatness is wholly dependent upon the energy spigot is not the best way, at least from the standpoint of Russia’s national identity.”

The second essay is a 1997 assessment of the condition of diaspora Russians in the former Soviet republics. Its authors focus on “two diasporic communities in what are often considered to be potential geopolitical hotspots,” of which one is of particular interest — the “diaspora of the Donbas.”[4]  There is “a powerful but ill-defined sense of community” among its “overlapping mixture of ethnic Russians, Russophones and Ukrainophones, a large proportion of whom have local roots going back generations”[5] [emphasis in original].

Political tensions over perceived Ukrainian nationalizing policies have long simmered in the Donbass[6] alongside agitation for political unification of one form or another with Russia.[7] While Russian historiography tends to tailor the past to fit the present — justifying Russian dominion not in terms of conquered territory, but as rule over peoples with the same history, language, and cultures[8] — Ukrainians after the Soviet Union’s dissolution sought “to as much as possible and as far as possible separate from Russia.”[9] Kinship seems to have amplified this need:

“Ukraine’s growing national self-identification is closely tied to differentiating itself from ‘Others’. Russia is the closest in historical, cultural, linguistic and ethnic terms, and therefore there is a need to distance Ukraine even more from it than is the case for central Europeans.”[10]

In the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, tensions in the Donbass erupted into armed conflict during April 2014, pitting the Ukrainian government against separatist forces of the self-declared Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. The former rightly feared wider contagion among the country’s diaspora Russians:

“[I]n Ukraine there are some 11.4 million ethnic Russians and at least six million Ukrainians and members of various minorities who prefer to use Russian, most of whom are concentrated in the broad arc of Ukrainian territory stretching from Kharkiv to Odessa, of which the Donbas is only the south-eastern corner.”[11]

Russian actions toward Ukraine express “a national narrative based on victimhood and its remediation”:

“[T]he exaltation of Russian greatness, the promotion of ‘Russian’ values against a decadent West, and the reconstitution of the Soviet space by means of economic cooperation or destabilization. The narrative mobilizes history, and idealizes the Soviet period.”[12]

With this foundation in place, we move to consider whether the notion of Russian grandeur is a useful concept to illuminate Mr. Putin’s vision for his country. Then we turn to the French philosopher Michel Foucault and a pair of concepts, discursive history and governmentality, as the pivot from Mr. Putin to the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. Sometimes compared (by admirers and detractors alike) to Mr. Putin, Mr. Orbán has his own species of grandeur, “Hungarian exceptionalism”.

Mr. Putin and General de Gaulle

“Charles de Gaulle is not a man of mystery. The air of mystery is part of the character which he has created, by calculation as much as by inclination, because it allows him to feint, to maneuver in front of the obstacle and to withdraw, if need be, without losing face.”[13]
-Herbert Lüthy

“Avenging the demise of the Soviet Union will keep us in power.”[14]
-Anonymous

It is interesting to ponder that General De Gaulle never explicitly defined grandeur. His pre-war writing nonetheless stressed that a commitment to grandeur was a practical imperative to compensate for France’s military and geographical vulnerability.[15] The Gaullist conception of grandeur was intended to reestablish and validate the image of national greatness, toward the twinned endpoints of domestic stability and a sense of national identity.[16] As General de Gaulle wrote in his memoirs, “France is not herself except in the first rank…to my mind, France cannot be France without le grandeur.”[17] Mutatis mutandis Mr. Putin might well write the same of modern Russia.

Historic parallels are never exact, of course. They are intended to provide “contexts of similarity and difference that foster perspective and insight — and reassurance that nothing is ever quite new.”[18] Bearing that condition in mind, for Russia, like France, “the harness is provided by a unifying and galvanizing ‘national ambition,’ a ‘great undertaking’ — by grandeur, the ‘choice of a great cause’.”[19] It is not necessarily one animated by grandiose thoughts, however:

“[O]ne cannot fail to be struck by the ideological emptiness of Gaullism. It is a stance, not a doctrine; an attitude, not a coherent set of dogmas; a style without much the service of France and French grandeur, itself never defined in its content, only by its context.”[20]

Mr. Putin believes, much as General de Gaulle, that his country must recapture the unique sense of la gloire et la grandeur of its national culture and identity. For both men, themes of national strength and independence dominate their policy objectives. General de Gaulle challenged the fundamental rationale of NATO as it applied to French security. Mr. Putin — who in the lead-up to the March 2000 election offered that De Gaulle was his model in foreign policy matters[21] — has challenged NATO enlargement as posing a direct threat to Russian national security interests.

“One can easily see the appeal of the French general who came to power in the wake of the failed Fourth Republic,” writes Matthew Evangelista, “determined to revive France’s grandeur, to ‘restore state authority,’ as he put it, and to create a strong, centralized, presidential republic. Putin from the start expressed similar aspirations for Russia.”[22] Mr. Putin’s Russia insists (like France circa 1960) on its continuing grandeur even though much of the outside world regards it as pure self-indulgence. There are of course limits to the analogy. Dmitriĭ Trenin makes an important distinction between the two countries:

“Given that Russia is a continental rather than a maritime power, its ‘colonies’ were actually its borderlands, i.e., a direct continuation of its national territory.”

Similarly, French de-colonization is no way analogous to Russia and Ukraine (nor for that matter, Belarus), the independence of which “is rather the result of self-determination within a family of ethnically and (for the most part) religiously very close groups of peoples.” Trenin writes, “Once the imperial era was over, the Russians had no safe haven to return to. Instead, they had to draw new borders where there had been none for centuries.”[23] We will return to the question of borders and boundaries later in this essay.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union left 25 million Russians in former Soviet territories, persons who, like the Algerian pieds-noirs,[24] found themselves on the wrong side of a receding imperial border. Most particularly in the case of Ukraine, the presence of Russian pieds-noirs exemplifies what Edward Keenan calls the Russian national unity myth (narod).[25] “We cannot,” conceded Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev in 1992, “send a military helicopter for every Russian-speaking boy or girl in a school in Moldova.”

Russians did not abandon ideas of grandeur, however, even as the Soviet Union disintegrated.

“Many Russians hold that the loss of Russian status as a superpower is unnatural and temporary…A fallback emotional prop is their longstanding collective consciousness regarding their vast land and the concept of ‘geopolitics.’ Because Russia is a huge landmass with vast natural resources, Russians still have one source of confidence. In the Russian language, the term geopolitics means that geographical determinants are not subject to historical change and that a country’s location and size guarantee its significance and influence. Therefore, Russia’s claim to a role as a world power is viewed as guaranteed, irrespective of its internal state of affairs or military performance.”[26]

Aspirations of grandeur are one thing; reality often yields quite different results. Although France was no longer a great power, “de Gaulle’s great game was to pretend that she still was, and to get her to punch above her military or economic weight in the Great Powers League.”[27] Mr. Putin acts in an indisputably similar manner. While early in his presidency Mr. Putin rejected the proposition of constructing an official ideology and presented himself as, in his words, “a pragmatist” — going so far in his 2007 Address to the Federation Council as to ridicule as “Russians’ favorite pastime” the “tradition of searching for a national idea” — he has nevertheless maintained “a strong and essentially ideological desire to restore Russia’s ‘greatness’,” one that lies “at the core of Putin’s leadership.”[28]

Russian grandeur is undergirded by a state-centrism (gosudarstvennost’) that has less to do with Western conceptions of sovereignty than with the power of the state to shape the nation’s destiny (derzhavnost’). State-centrism is a political construct, writes Pavel Baev, with three dimensions — Russia as, respectively, a Great Power, an Empire, and a Civilization — that are blended (sometimes imperfectly) in mainstream Russian political thinking. Each influenced the ideological evolution of Mr. Putin’s presidency.[29] While Mr. Putin “arrived to power with a strong conviction that Russia was a European state,”[30] it is derzhavnost’ that illuminates his political understanding, as Nicole Gallina writes:

“It implies a strong and paternalistic state, and goes hand-in-hand with a well-ordered police state. This expression unites patriotism with orthodoxy, includes commitment toward the fatherland, but also authoritarianism and faith in Russian grandeur…”[31]

Returning to sovereignty, suverennost’ as understood by Russians is not “the sovereignty of Thomas Hobbes, Jeane Bodin, and Hans Morgenthau.”[32] It is instead closer to this understanding by the Russian author, Roman Nosikov:

“No matter how great our mistakes, defeats and failings, they are the mistakes, defeats and failings of a great, free and unique people who need nor have any intermediaries between themselves and God…All that belongs to our history belongs to us alone. Those were our decisions. We must answer for them only to ourselves and to God, certainly not to the ‘civilized world’, ‘the West’, or ‘Europe’. Those…who judge our history by another’s yardstick…are slaves, unworthy of the honor of being one of us.”[33]

Mr. Putin’s conception of Russian grandeur, too, has weighty civilizational overtones, tracing to Count Sergey Uvarov’s c.1830 triad pravoslaviyesamoderzhaviyenarodnost’ (Orthodoxy—autocracy—nationhood). It is worth pausing momentarily to consider one element of that triad — samoderzhaviye (autocracy) — of which Uvarov wrote:

“A colossus (meaning empire) in which an imagined constitutional form of government accepts, in the European manner, the chimeras of restricting the monarch’s authority and granting equal rights to all classes, would fail to last a fortnight. It will in fact collapse before completing these false transformations.”[34]

Thus autocracy is “a conservative principle, an instrument to preserve the empire in its current form.” It is worth highlighting Uvarov’s eventual substitution of the French word nationalité — “the quality of being French,”[35] as Olivier Von puts it — for the narodnost’ of his original formulation.[36] It implies a basket of distinctly Russian traits, of “Russian-ness”. It became in Vladimir Solovyov’s later formulation “the Russian Idea”[37] (Russkaya ideya) — Alexander Yanov expands it to the “Russian hegemonic idea”[38] [emphasis added]. As Baev notes, the renowned scholar of Russian affairs Richard Pipes maintained that one of aforementioned dimensions — imperial expansionism — is an essential and irreducible feature of the Russian state.

“Pipes’ diagnosis finds much corroborating evidence in the ratiocinations of such pro-Kremlin ‘neo-imperialists’ as Aleksandr Dugin and Mikhail Leotyev. They express the widely held view that Russia could ‘organically’ exist only in the form of empire, and this implies asserting effective control over political development of neighboring states and accepting responsibility for their security. Energy is now perceived as a crucial bond holding the post-Soviet empire together and securing Russia’s dominance, while also providing it with surplus income that could be converted into muscle and influence.”[39]

Reflecting on the revival of the Russian Idea, Vadim Volkov develops much the same argument. He wrote a decade ago that “Putin’s recent visit to Mount Afon…can be viewed as a move away from the economist version of the National Idea to one appealing to religious and moral values.”[40]

“The imperialist motive worked before, hence the temptation to use it again. One way to imagine a new empire is as an energy network with nodal points in the Russian heartland. Chubais suggested electric lines, but pipelines, as recent events demonstrate, will do even better.”[41]

Nikolay Gerasimovich Ustryalov[42] (a rough contemporary of Uvanov) conceived Russian history as a national narrative.[43] The dissolution of the Soviet Union denied Russians their structuring narrative, and left them to fashion a new identity through the practice of bricolage,”[44] a term borrowed from the French anthropologist, Claude Lévi-Strauss. Likewise, General de Gaulle, Philip Cerny writes “built his ‘certain idea of France’ out of a kind of bricolage of historical anecdotes and into a structured myth with direct relevance and application to contemporary problems.”[45]

Reflecting on Ustryalov, Brian Baer writes, “Mythical thought is…a kind of intellectual ‘bricolage’,” continuing that “the bricoleur creates structures by means of events.”[46] It is suggested by some that Russia epitomizes what Levi-Strauss called a “frozen culture,” one trapped in past structures:

“Hence ‘we face the return of Russian history.’ Numerous phenomena in today’s Russia evoke comparison with either the Soviet or tsarist period.”[47]

As the aforementioned Aleksandr Dugin wrote:

“For us, the reigning idea is the Russian Idea, the idea of Great Russia, emerging from centuries of history and careening towards full and bright fulfillment in the future…To be Russian is to be a compatriot in the Russian Idea…”[48]

The desire to re-empower and resurrect a grandeur reminiscent of the Tsars and the Soviet Union first formed in the economic and social turmoil of the late 1990s, amidst “widespread corruption, weak institutions, and the dependence on Western funds.” Mr. Putin’s emphasis on rejuvenating Russian hard power is a central piece in the making of the new Russian grandeur.[49]

“During his tenure as prime minister and in the beginning of his presidency…was often mentioned as being a representative of ‘the power structures.’  This term refers both to the numerous Russian security services, the armed forces, and sometimes to the military-industrial complex (Voenno-Promyshlennii Kompleks).”[50]

The question remains whether Russia has achieved de Gaulle-like grandeur or alternately, is a mere folie de grandeur. Dugin (writing in 2014) gives one answer, viz., that “2012 should be considered a turning point.” He speculated Mr. Putin “may be a historical figure who has finally accepted the mission to revive Russia as a great power. Otherwise, everything that he has said and done before would be pointless. Russia is waiting for a leader to help her regain her previous greatness.”[51] There is, of course, an alternate viewpoint:

“As long as Russia is unwilling to face its history, it will also be, in some sense, a threat to its neighbors, as the Baltic struggle indicates, and potentially vulnerable to a new authoritarian ideology. […] These machinations are merely a repeat of past failures and validate Marx’s observations that history repeats itself the first time as tragedy and the second time as farce.   […T]his aspect of Putin’s rule may well come to be remembered by historians as was Nicholas I’s reign, for in its aftermath, one historian observed that the worst thing is that the whole thing was a mistake.”[52]

When in November 1999 Izvestia derided Mr. Putin as a “marionette of the military-industrial complex and the generals of the armed forces,”[53] its editors misapprehended the actual power relationship. It is the Russian security services, especially the Federal Security Service — more commonly called by its Russian language acronym, FSB (Federalnaia Sluzhba Bezopasnosty) — that represent the real foundation of Mr. Putin’s political power. The more geopolitically oriented parts of the security services “see a viable VPK[54] as a necessity for Russian grandeur in world affairs, and as a valuable tool for increasing Russian influence in the world.”[55]

The “cult of the state”[56] that lies at the center of Mr. Putin’s new Russian grandeur has cultural expressions as well. The intent, or so his critics claim, is to promote “a sanitized pseudo-history, a glossy remake that suggests the present’s association with unchanging mythical grandeur.”[57] Why, asks Ola Cichowlas, “is it important for the Russian regime to actively promote its version of history, instead of opening up the archives and encouraging honest scholarship? Because, as historian Robert Service observed, “controlling history, for the Kremlin, is a means of controlling the present”[58]

Favored projects such as the restoration of Tsarist-era churches and estates unintentionally convey the “ambivalent message of Russian ruins,” writes Russian cultural and literary scholar Andreas Schönle. They serve at one and the same time as “a reminder of Russian grandeur and an index of its frailty.”[59] Mr. Putin’s renovation of Soviet and Imperial symbols of state is evident in contemporary Moscow’s many memorialization and reconstruction projects.[60] These, writes James Wertsch, are “quite familiar to Russians but do not easily resonate with members of other memory communities. With a bit of reflection, its meaning can be understood by outsiders, but it clearly lacks the familiarity and availability that it has for Russians.”[61]

Discursive History to Biopolitical Power: From the Russian Putin to a Hungarian One

“A sense in which history and the past are relevant to ethnicity and ethnic conflict is myth…in the anthropological sense of ‘remote and unprovable history’…”[62]

Michel Foucault remarked that the series — in simplest form, ‘A follows B’ — lies at the heart of how events are classically understood. Thus the historian’s task: “defining the position of each element in relation to the other elements in the series.” Foucault called his alternative a “discursive event,” in which the historian’s role is, in a manner of speaking, to “archaeologize” events and “to find out what is said.[63] His is a “special view of history,” one in which what is said about what happened is given equal weight to the truth of what happened. History for Foucault, then, is about truth and story.[64] “Freed from the burden of continuity,” he writes, the historian is free to construct “a pure description of discursive events” [emphasis in original] drawn from a “population of events.”[65]

The discursive method “does not connect events…according to causality, but compare[s] them based on their recurrent characteristics.” So writes Péter Apor, who described its practitioners as analogous to “sixteenth-century scientists, who had contemplated the order of the world and discovered that things were connected by a system of correspondences, revealed by various signs.” For Foucault, “knowledge, thus, is formed by looking for signs and detecting correspondence.”[66]

Elena Chebankova applies Foucault in her fine essay, “Vladimir Putin: Making of the National Hero”:

“Ukraine and Crimea represented, using Foucault’s terminology, a ‘population of events in the space of discourse in general’…The secret of Putin’s success, in the view of the author, is his attempt to recreate a narrative of the Russian structure in a new form…The Ukrainian crisis unmasked those hidden passions of Russian society and became the focal point for this long search for self-rediscovery within the broader context of Russia’s history.”[67]

Consider now how Foucault’s discursive construct is embedded in Mr. Putin’s 2013 Valdai speech:

“For us (and I am talking about Russians and Russia), questions about who we are and who we want to be are increasingly prominent in our society. […] Practice has shown that a new national idea does not simply appear…We need historical creativity, a synthesis of the best national practices and ideas, an understanding of our cultural, spiritual and political traditions from different points of view, and to understand that national identity is not a rigid thing that will last forever, but rather a living organism…Too often in our nation’s history, instead of opposition to the government we have been faced with opponents of Russia itself. I have already mentioned this; Pushkin also talked about it. […] We need to heal these wounds, and repair the tissues of our historic fabric.”[68]

As the wished-for synthesis has yet to come, what should Russia do today? Quoting Mr. Putin’s own aphorism — “Russia is a destiny, not a project” — Mikhail Delyagin argues “Putin should revive Russian civilization based on our own particular identity, hidden and blurred for a generation…Russian civilization cannot be built on the basis of identities borrowed from outside.”[69]

Alexandr Kornilov suggests elements of a new Russian identity that echo Count Uvarov’s triad. The first is a set of “red lines no one is allowed to cross,” elaborated by Mr. Putin at Valda as Russia’s unconditional sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity. The balance of these elements is intertwined with ideas of state-centrism, and the state’s power to shape national destiny. Mr. Putin explains it this way:

“Russia, as Konstantin Leontyev vividly put it, has always evolved in ‘blossoming complexity’ as a state-civilization, reinforced by the Russian people, Russian language, Russian culture, Russian Orthodox Church and the country’s other traditional religions…”[70]

This conception has parallels in Foucault’s idea of governmentality:

“This word [government] must be allowed the very broad meaning which it had in the sixteenth century. ‘Government’ did not refer only to political structures or to the management of states; rather, it designated the way in which the conduct of individuals or of groups might be directed. […] To govern, in this sense, is to control the possible field of action of others.”[71]

Pierre Manent wrote two decades ago, “The sleepwalker’s assurance with which ‘Europe’ pursues its indefinite extension is the result of its refusal to think about itself comprehensively, that is, to define itself politically.”[72] More recently he said Europeans “have taken such control over their own history that they no longer have any desire to act. They want innocence. And the only way to achieve innocence is by non-action.”[73] Mr. Putin, like General de Gaulle before him, does not suffer from any such “paralyzing ambivalence.”[74]

Nor does for that matter Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, of whom Mitchell Orenstein, Péter Krekó, and Attila Juhász asked recently, is he “The Hungarian Putin?”[75] In Manent’s view, “at present there is nothing in Europe that resembles the patriotism of nations…Invoking ‘Europe’ devalues national patriotism without creating a European patriotism in its stead.” What Mr. Orbán has mastered, perhaps better than any other European political leader, is what Andrey Makarychev dubbed “biopolitical patriotism” (borrowing Foucalt’s biopolitical[76]). Makarychev offers this explanation:

“[T]he exercise of biopolitical power is relatively insensitive to the geopolitical control of territorial lands. Biopolitics is more concerned with managing lives…Rather than stemming from a feeling of duty to a well-governed state, biopolitical patriotism is both created by and reinforces a nationalist discourse based on a sense of belonging to a constructed, symbolic community of like-minded compatriots.”

This leads us to a question: is Mr. Orbán a Gaullist?

We Hungarians Are the Continent’s Gaullists[77]

Mais le démon n’est jamais loin qui nous fait revenir à nos errements passés.[78]

Viktor Orbán is regularly compared — sometimes favorably, sometimes not — to General De Gaulle. Mr. Orbán should aspire to be “a new De Gaulle,” writes Ágoston Sámuel Mráz, in a commentary published by the Fidesz-aligned portal Weekly Response (Heti Válasznak). He is a “centrist” who adds a “cultural dimension” to the immigration debate, a “strong hand” who seeks “pragmatic cooperation” with Mr. Putin, much as General De Gaulle sought with Chancellor Adenauer.[79] Others go farther, hailing Mr. Orbán as a modern-day János Hunyadi for his resolute determination to halt the inflow of asylum-seekers and to check an emergent “Islamic conquest of Christian Europe.”[80] The Hunyadi comparison goads Mr. Orbán’s many critics, whom defenders dismiss as “screaming the loudest because they can, knowing that Hungarians are protecting their borders.”[81]

When Mr. Orbán proclaimed, “We Hungarians are the Continent’s Gaullists,” he used “the royal we” when what he meant was “this Hungarian.” This is the sardonic observation of the former leader of Hungary’s Socialist Party, ldikó Lendvai. “But just yesterday,” she continued, Mr. Orbán told Hungarians we were “half-Asian descendants of the Golden Horde who found ourselves among strangers in Brussels.” Now, it seems, “we are Europe’s most effective Europeans. So, Mr. Orbán, just tell me who are the true Europeans and who are not?”[82]

Péter Techet of the Leibniz Institute of European History[83] suggests Mr. Orbán’s penchant for governing via referenda and for ignoring minority viewpoints makes Bonapartism, not Gaullism, the more apt analogy.[84] “Gaullism was a unifying national ideology” for the French, he writes, not one under which “De Gaulle came to believe, for example, that leftists were of a genus different from the French nation.” Nor is the allusion wholly novel: a 2010 Népszava (“People’s Voice”) commentary is but one among many to criticize Mr. Orbán’s putative ambition of a Hungarian Fifth Republic:

“De Gaulle was all the more significant since European political leaders could not think to compare themselves to him or to his life’s work. And above all, to refrain from boasting about such a comparison while at the same time failing to understand the eleven years of the De Gaulle era. No, those political leaders were appropriately modest.”[85]

Tibor Várkonyi sarcastically dismissed Mr. Orbán’s ambitions. “Way to go, mon cher Viktor, you sent a message to the heavenly Élysée Palace of Charles de Gaulle, who heard the Hungarian Prime Minister’s emotional declaration.”[86]  Várkonyi’s tone sharpened markedly two years hence, when he wrote under the title “Usurpation” (Bitorlás) that Mr. Orbán’s Gaullist pretensions “were based on a simple falsification of history.” Neither de Gaulle nor Adenauer “sought to concentrate power, given that both were convinced democrats.”[87] Eschewing more extreme comparisons, Pesti Sándor of Budapest’s Eötvös Loránd University suggests Mr. Orbán “is not the Führer’s, but Il Duce’s modern reincarnation.”

“Orbán’s Duce-aping is not only the perfect modern-day replica of the system that evolved in 1920s Italy, it is fascist in the classic sense of the word…Today, there is a fascist regime in Hungary.”[88]

The same suggestion has been made with respect to Mr. Putin.

“Those who try to compare Putin with Hitler are wrong. The Russian president does not dream of world domination and moreover, is not obsessed with racial superiority. Russia in the 2000s is not 1930s Germany. A fascist corporate state à la Mussolini in the 1920s and 1930s is the ideal of today’s Russian elite. Putin is Il Duce, not the Führer.”[89]

Andrei Malgin calls Messrs. Putin and Orbán “two peas in a pod” in an eponymous The Moscow Times commentary.[90]

Mr. Orbán was reviled for his July 2014 speech at the Bálványos Summer Free University in Băile Tuşnad, Romania (known to Hungarians as Tusnádfürdő) in which he was widely — and erroneously — reported to advocate “illiberal democracy” (illiberális demokrácia).[91] He elaborated the theme in a September 2014 speech commemorating the seventieth anniversary of Christian Democratic People’s Party known by its Hungarian acronym, KDNP (Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt), notably invoking the name of De Gaulle’s counterpart, Konrad Adenauer. Mr. Orbán explained that he meant to suggest a Christian Democratic vision of Europe in contrast to a “liberal democratic” one. A year hence, Mr. Orbán’s tone softened to a denunciation of “political correctness” — while embracing “democracy, the version without the adjective.”[92]

Others, too, have discerned in Mr. Orbán a “Gaullist stance”:

“[T]he will to break, once and for all, with the legacy of communism, a marked skepticism towards global capitalism, and a fierce attachment to national independence. These elements impart a Gaullist aspect to Viktor Orbán, along with similarities in the path taken by each man: resisting an occupier, and ‘crossing the desert’ to return triumphantly to power, led by a vision of national revival and an ambition to break with a discredited old order.”[93]

His critics will have none of this, however: the French online journal Causeur quickly countered the Le Monde commentary with one of its own, declaring “Hungary: Viktor Orbán, a new De Gaulle? A dwarf and a giant.”[94]

Mr. Orbán’s variation on grandeur is often described as Hungarian exceptionalism (kivételesség).[95] During the interwar period of the 1920s and 1930s (with echoes today), exceptionalism was said to animate efforts to find “a third road, an alternative to both the bourgeois liberal capitalism of the West and the Marxist-Stalinist absolutism of the East.”[96]

“[M]ost Hungarians trusted Hungarian exceptionalism to preserve their independence. Hungary was different, and Hungarians were proud of the differences. Their language was not related to any other European language, except for a few tenuous ties to Finnish or Turkish that only the linguistics professors discerned. Hungarian political and social development, the unique role of the nobility in Hungarian society, their history as part of the two-headed Austro-Hungarian Empire, even their ancient origins as a people and a nation had been different.”[97]

The Bricolage of Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán

“Myths, like other memories, are not in simple and immediate correspondence with ‘the truth’ or ‘the facts.’ Rather, ethnic past-as-myth is a complex…amalgamation of remembering, forgetting, interpreting, and inventing.”[98]

“Europeans…want innocence. And the only way to achieve innocence is by immobility. Organized immobility.”[99]

While the term is ineluctably associated with him, it is interesting to consider that General De Gaulle never explicitly defined grandeur. He emphasized in his pre-war writing that a commitment to grandeur was a practical imperative to compensate for France’s military and geographical vulnerability.[100] In one view, however, while “initially intended to maintain international stability and order, it ended by unleashing French nationalism which complicated the task of coalition formation with other nations for mutual solutions to international problems.”[101] Like many “hurrah-words,” writes Philip Cerny, “grandeur was a two-edged sword.”[102]

Grandeur is premised on a set of historical and political myths. Elena Chebankova writes that political legitimacy — she defines the term as answering “the question, ‘Why should I obey’?” — “often comes in the shape of new historic and political myths,” ones that “reinterpret old conventions.”[103] The bricoleur, writes Lévi-Strauss, “takes to pieces and reconstructs sets of events…and uses them alternately as means and ends.” So, too, historic and political myths, which “build up structures by fitting together events, or rather the remains of events.”[104]

Such myths are signs that project cultural values and undergird cultural narratives. It is the bricoleur who deals in such signs, Lévi-Strauss continues:

“One way in which signs can be opposed to concepts is that signs allow, even require, the interposing and incorporation of a certain amount of human culture into reality. Signs, in Peirce’s vigorous phrase ‘address somebody’.”[105]

Boundaries are one such sign.

Masse argues that “ethnical [sic] identity is not the product of a frozen culture; it is not culturally isolated from other ones.” It is instead “the consequence of links among diverse groups that have established boundaries in order to be…recognizable from outside.”[106] Eller argues in a similar vein, “Not all nations are or start out as ethnic groups, although they may come to be draped in the ethnic rubric and discourse.”[107] Russia and Hungary are paradigm examples of this, as Messrs. Putin and Orbán masterfully (if cynically) take to pieces and refit historic events to build political narratives.

Mr. Orbán is arguably the most outspoken leader in opposing the unchecked movement of asylum-seekers, unsurprising perhaps given Hungary’s frontline status on the migrants’ pathway into the European Union. He intends Hungary’s borders to act as an unmistakable sign: in 2015, the Orbán government erected imposing physical barriers along its borders with Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Romania in an effort to stem the movement of asylum-seekers into the country.

Mr. Orbán is intent on making meaning with his border fences. He is unconcerned with the opinion of others. This is not without precedent — consider the century-old words of Count Mihály Károlyi, leader of the short-lived (1918-1919) Hungarian Democratic Republic:

“Let us not ask what [other] nationalities desire and what are the pretensions which we might be able to realize without injury to the national unity of the homogenous Magyar State or hinderance [sic] to national progress; that is not the question. The point is simply to know what we Magyars ought to wish and how we ought to proceed against the nationalities in the interest of the Magyar national State and the progress of the Magyar people.”[108]

Mr. Orbán he knows (at least believes he knows) what Hungarians ought to wish and how Hungarians ought to proceed, irrespective (often, defiantly so) of what his critics think they know about the same matters.

Here, Hungary may not be so exceptional. Two decades ago, German sociologists Meinhard Miegel and Stefanie Wahl warned that demographic trends might be sufficient to extinguish German cultural, religious and linguistic identity by the end of the century.[109] Now consider how the far right French journalist Guilame Faye cynically twists their assessment:

“Integration and assimilation have turned out to be complete failures. Only minorities can be assimilated, not mobs. The German people are disappearing before our very eyes. There is a change of people…When people cross the Rhine in 2030, will they pass from North Africa to Turkey?”[110] [emphasis in original]

Even after the Paris terror attacks of 13 November, some were quick to dismiss statements of this sort as the rant of the political fringe. May so. But consider this warning by the late French historian Dominique Venner:

“The unthinkable, despite all expectations, can happen. As late as 1960, the unthinkable was the expulsion of a million French pieds-noirs from Algeria. No one had imagined it would happen, not even General de Gaulle…”

“The unthinkable, in the decades following independence, was the arrival of millions of Algerians in France. The unthinkable today is, for example, the repatriation of these Algerians and other African immigrants. Let us learn from the past that the unthinkable can one day become reality.”[111]

The translation of all source material is by the author unless noted otherwise.

About the author:
*John R. Haines
is a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute and Executive Director of FPRI’s Princeton Committee. Much of his current research is focused on Russia and its near abroad, with a special interest in nationalist and separatist movements. As a private investor and entrepreneur, he is currently focused on the question of nuclear smuggling and terrorism, and the development of technologies to discover, detect, and characterize concealed fissile material. He is also a Trustee of FPRI. The translation of all source material is by the author unless noted otherwise.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Notes:
[1] Charles De Gaulle (1954). Mémoires de guerre, vol. 1, l’Appel 1940-1942. (Paris: Librarie Plon), 175. Quoted in Richard Herr (1955). “The Memoirs of General de Gaulle.” Yale French Studies. 15 (Social and Political France), 126.

[2]  Fyodor Lukyanov (2005). “Sobstvennaya gordost’ ventilya.” Gazeta.ru [published online in Russian 29 December 2005]. http://www.gazeta.ru/column/lukyanov/508590.shtml. Last accessed 11 June 2015.  The article’s Russian title uses the word ventilya, for which the literal translation is “valve.” It is an allusion to opening a valve on an energy pipeline to release its literal contents — Russian oil and natural gas — but metaphorically, Russian national pride. The author has therefore opted to use the more idiomatically suited English word spigot.

[3] Russian transliteration: neftegazovom ventile.

[4] Graham Smith & Andrew Wilson (1997). “Rethinking Russia’s Post-Soviet Diaspora: The Potential for Political Mobilization in Eastern Ukraine and North-East Estonia.” Europe-Asia Studies. 49:5, 845-864.

[5] Smith & Wilson (1997), op cit., 854, 847.

[6] The author has elected to use the proper Russian transliteration Donbass rather than Donbas, which is the Ukrainian transliteration. It is a portmanteau formed from Donetskiy bassein or “Donets Basin,” a reference to the Donets River that divides the region into two provinces. The northern province is the Lugansk Oblast [Russian translit.: Luganskaya oblast. Ukrainian translit.: Luhans’ka oblast’] and the southern one is the Donetsk Oblast [Russian transl.:  Donetskaya oblast. Ukrainian transl.: Donets’ka oblast’. Also known in Ukrainian as Donechchyna].

[7] Ibid., 861.

[8] Taras Kuzio (2001). “Historiography and National Identity among the Eastern Slavs: Towards a New Framework.” National Identities. 3:2, 112. http://www.taraskuzio.net/Nation%20and%20State%20Building_files/national…. Last accessed 12 June 2015.

[9] Volodymyr Hryn’iov (1995). Nova Ukrayina: Yaku ya i Bachu (Kyiv: Abrys), 81. The English language title is The New Ukraine: How I See It.

[10] Taras Kuzio (2001). “Identity and nation-building in Ukraine.” Ethnicities. 1:3, 349. http://etn.sagepub.com/content/1/3/343.full.pdf+html. Last accessed 13 June 2015.

[11] Ibid., 847.

[12] Gilles Lepesant (2014). “La Politique européenne de voisinage à l’épreuve de la crise ukrainienne.” Question d’Europe. Published online in French by Fondation Robert Schuman, 6 October 2014. http://www.robert-schuman.eu/fr/doc/questions-d-europe/qe-327-fr.pdf. Last accessed 13 June 2015.

[13] Herbert Lüthy (1965). “De Gaulle: Pose and Policy.” Foreign Affairs. 43 (July 1965). https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/1965-07-01/de-gaulle-pose…. Last accessed 13 June 2015.

[14] Unattributed quote in Mark Leonard & Nicu Popescu (2007) A Power Audit of EU-Russia Relations (London: European Council on Foreign Relations) 12. http://ecfr.3cdn.net/1ef82b3f011e075853_0fm6bphgw.pdf. Last accessed 1 June 2015.

[15] For example, see: Charles De Gaulle (1934; 1941). The Army of the Future. Philadelphia: Lippincott, 1941), 15-21. In Daniel J. Mahoney (1997). “De Gaulle and the Death of Europe.” The National Interest. Summer 1997, 48.

[16] Philip G. Cerny (1980). The Politics of Grandeur: Ideological Aspects of De Gaulle’s Foreign Policy. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), 6, 61.

[17] Charles De Gaulle (1971). Memoirs of Hope. (New York: Simon & Schuster), 178-179.  Quoted in Herbert Lüthy (1965). “De Gaulle: Pose and Policy.” Foreign Affairs. 43(July 1965). https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/1965-07-01/de-gaulle-pose…. Last accessed 13 June 2015.

[18] See Editor’s note to “Lassitude in the Legislature on Iran.” War on the Rocks website [published online 27 July 2015]. http://warontherocks.com/2015/07/lassitude-in-the-legislature-on-iran/. Last accessed 27 July 2015.

[19] Stanley Hoffmann & Inge Hoffmann (1968). “The Will to Grandeur: De Gaulle as Political Artist.” Daedalus. 97:3 (Summer, 1968), 862.

[20] Ibid., 845.

[21] Vladimir Putin (2000). First Person: An Astonishingly Frank Self-Portrait by Russia’s President. (New York: Public Affairs), 194. Mr. Putin responds first with the name of Napoleon Bonaparte when journalists asked which political leaders he found “most interesting.”

[22] Matthew Evangelista (2005). “Is Putin the New de Gaulle? A Comparison of the Chechen and Algerian Wars.” Post-Soviet Affairs. 21:4, 36. http://falcon.arts.cornell.edu/mae10/Is-Putin-the-New-de-Gaulle.pdf. Last accessed 8 June 2015.

[23] Dmitriĭ Trenin (2002). The End of Eurasia: Russia on the Border Between Geopolitics and Globalization. (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), 79-81.

[24] The slang term Pied-Noir (“Black-Foot”) was used for white French settlers in Algeria, more than a million of which returned to France after the 1962 Algerian war of independence.

[25] Edward L. Keenan (1994). “On Certain Mythical Beliefs and Russian Behaviors.” In Frederick S. Starr, ed. The Legacy of History in Russia and the New States of Eurasia. (Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe), 36-37. The literal English translation of the Russian word narod is “people” but the German word Volk better approximates its meaning in context. Keenan describes the “startling incapacity” of Russians “to acknowledge the authenticity of Ukrainian claims to their national identity, not to mention what they take as their national territory.” José Casanova wrote presciently in 1998, “Russophone Ukrainians hold the key to the emergence of a genuinely pluralistic, and not just plural, civil society in Ukraine…Being in the middle [between Ukrainophones and Russophones) they serve as a structural guarantee of the survival of Ukraine’s independence. They can literally hold Ukraine together in a way in which neither of the other two poles can. Without them, both temptations, the nationalizing one on the part of the aggrieved Ukrainian nationalists and the colonial one of the part of alarmed Russian pieds-noirs, and the concomitant danger of Russian-Ukrainian communal violence which could easily spill over into an international confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, would be much greater. See: José Casanova (1998). “Ethno-linguistic and religious pluralism and democratic construction in Ukraine.” In Barnett R. Rubin & Jack Snyder, eds. Post-Soviet Political Order. (New York: Routledge) 89.

[26] Graham C. Cornwell (1998). Nuclear Weapons and NATO-Russia Relations. (Monterey: Naval Postgraduate School), 49-50. https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/32617/98Dec_Cornwell.pdf?…. Last accessed 8 June 2015.

[27] Pierre Hassner (2008). “Russia’s Transition to Autocracy.” Journal of Democracy. 19:2 (April 2008) 8. http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v019/19.2hassner.pdf. Last accessed 11 November 2015.

[28] Pavel K. Baev (2008). “The East-West maneuvering in Russia’s energy policy – Could oil and gas exports to China endanger Europe’s energy security?” RUSSCASP Working Paper (August 2008), 3. http://www.fni.no/russcasp/Russia-China-energy-Baev.pdf. Last accessed 12 November 2015.

[29] This is a necessarily cryptic summation of a much more contoured argument developed in Pavel K. Baev (2012). Russian Energy Policy and Military Power: Putin’s Quest for Greatness [Contemporary Security Studies]. (Taylor and Francis. Kindle Edition) 33-34.

[30] Baev (2008), op cit., 3.

[31] Nicole Gallina (2007). Law and Order in Russia: The Well-Arranged Police State. (Zurich: Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) 6.

[32] Elena Chebankova (2015). “Competing Ideologies of Russia’s Civil Society.” Europe-Asia Studies. 67:2, 254.

[33] Nosikov (2013). “O svobodnykh lyudyakh i tekh, komu sredi nikh ne mesto” (“Of a free people, and those who have no place among them”). Odnako.org [published online in Russian 26 June 2013]. http://www.odnako.org/blogs/negrityanka-na-dvoih-kak-visshaya-cennost-o-…. Last accessed 13 November 2015. Chebankova (2015) also quotes (with some differences in translation) part of this text.

[34] Uvarov’s Russian language text is reproduced in the transcript of a lecture titled “Count Uvarov’s Triad” presented on 5 March 2007 by Professor Alexei Miller of Central European University in Budapest. See: Polit.ru [published in Russian 11 April 2007]. http://www.polit.ru/article/2007/04/11/uvarov/. Last accessed 12 November 2015.  The translation is the author’s own.

[35] Olivier W. Vonk (2012). Dual Nationality in the European Union. (Leiden: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers), 16.

[36] Such Romantic era literary figures as Prince Pyotr Andreyevich Vyazemsky embraced the concept of nationalité for Russians as in Poland, for example, where a neologism, narodowość, was coined.

[37] Solovyov introduced the concept in an eponymous May 1888 lecture in Paris.

[38] Alexander Yanov (2013). “Putin and the ‘Russian Idea’.” Institute of Modern Russia [published online 1 July 2013]. http://imrussia.org/en/society/504-putin-and-the-russian-idea. Last accessed 12 November 2015.

[39] Baev (2012), op cit., 32-32.

[40] Vadim Volkov (2005). “Will the Kremlin Revive the Russian Idea?” PONARS Policy Memo No. 370 (December 2005). http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/pm_0370.pdf. Last accessed 12 November 2015. The observation is especially interesting read in parallel with a speech given that same year by Mr. Putin in which he said, “State power, wrote the great Russian philosopher Ivan Ilyin, ‘has its own limits defined by the fact that it is authority that reaches people from outside…State power cannot oversee and dictate the creative states of the soul and mind, the inner states of love, freedom and goodwill. The state cannot demand from its citizens faith, prayer, love, goodness and conviction. It cannot regulate scientific, religious and artistic creation…It should not intervene in moral, family and daily private life, and only when extremely necessary should it impinge on people’s economic initiative and creativity.’ Let us not forget this.”

[41] Ibid.

[42] Not to be confused with the later Bolshevism theorist, Nikolay Vasilyevich Ustryalov

[43] Professor Miller makes this point in his March 2007 lecture, “Count Uvarov’s Triad,” op cit.

[44] Brian James Baer (2013). “Post-Soviet self-fashioning and the politics of representation.” Putin as Celebrity and Celebrity Icon, Helena Goscilo, ed. (New York: Routledge), 160.

[45] Cerny (1980), op cit., 87.

[46] Claude Lévi-Strauss (1962). The Savage Mind. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press) 17, 22.  The translator’s note (p. 17) reads, “The French verb bricoler has no English equivalent, but refers to the kind of activities that are performed by a handy-man. The bricoleur performs his tasks with materials and tools that are at hand, from ‘odds and ends’.”

[47] Stephen Blank (1998). “Russian Democracy: From the Future to the Past.” Demokratizatsiya. 6:3, 552. https://www.questia.com/read/1G1-53223929/russian-democracy-from-the-fut…. Last accessed 10 June 2015.

[48] Aleksandr Dugin (2014). Putin vs. Putin: Vladimir Putin Viewed from the Right. (London: Aktos), 250.

[49]  Maxime Henri André Larivé & Roger E. Kanet (2013). “The Return to Europe and the Rise of EU-Russian Ideological Differences.”  Seton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations. 14:1, 130.

[50] Tor Bukkvoll (2003). “Putin’s Strategic Partnership with the West: The Domestic Politics of Russian Foreign Policy.” Comparative Strategy. 22:3, 225. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01495930390214794. Last accessed 8 June 2015.

[51] Dugin (2014), op cit., 130.

[52] “Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Teaching Russia’s History” 3 August 2007.  http://russiaprofile.org/experts_panel/a1186143697.html. Last accessed 10 June 2015.

[53] Bukkvoll (2003), op cit.

[54] VPK is the acronym of Voenno-Promyshlennii Kompleks or “military-industrial complex”.

[55] Bukkvoll (2003), op cit.

[56] The term belongs to the British-Polish journalist and Russian scholar, Ola Cichowlas. See: Cichowlas (2013). “In Russia, It Is Deja-Vu All over Again: How Russians Fell Back in Love with the KGB and Stalin.” The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs. 22:2. https://www.questia.com/read/1P3-3252499761/in-russia-it-is-deja-vu-all-…. Last accessed 8 June 2015.

[57] Andreas Schönle (2006). “Ruins and History: Observations on Russian Approaches to Destruction and Decay.” Slavic Review. 65:4, 668.

[58] Cichowlas (2013), op cit.

[59] Ibid., 657.

[60] Kevin M.F. Platt (2008). “The Post-Soviet is Over: On Reading the Ruins.” Republics of Letters. 1:1. http://arcade.stanford.edu/rofl/post-soviet-over-reading-ruins. Last accessed 8 June 2015.

[61] James V. Wertsch (2007). “National Narratives and the conservative Nature of Collective Memory.” Neohelicon, 34:2, 32. http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/596/art%253A10.1007%252Fs11059-0…. Last accessed 8 June 2015. Wertsch explores the subject of collective memory and Russia’s experience in World War II.

[62] Ted Robert Gurr & Barbara Harff (1994). Ethnic Conflict in World Politics. (Boulder: Westview Press), 12-13.

[63] The term is from Louis Cabri (2004). “Discursive Events in the Electronic Archive of Postmodern and Contemporary Poetry.” English Studies in Canada (ESC). 30:1, 53. He uses the illustration of transcribing a tape-recorded speech, in which “writing intervenes in the double discovery.”

[64] Charles Olson (1970). The special view of history. Ann Charters, ed. (Berkeley: Oyez).

[65] Michel Foucault (1972). The Archeology of Knowledge and the Discourse on Language, A.M. Sheridan Smith, transl. (New York: Pantheon Books), 27. http://monoskop.org/images/9/90/Foucault_Michel_Archaeology_of_Knowledge…. Last accessed 10 June 2015.

[66] Péter Apor (2015). Fabricating Authenticity in Soviet Hungary. The Afterlife of the First Hungarian Soviet Republic in the Age of State Socialism. (London: Anthem Press), 35.

[67] Elena Chebankova (2015). “Vladimir Putin: Making of the National Hero.” Ukraine and Russia: People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives. Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewsa & Richard Sakwa, eds. (Bristol, UK: E-International Relations Publishing), 179. http://www.e-ir.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Ukraine-and-Russia-E-IR.pdf. Last accessed 10 June 2015.

[68] Transcript of President Valdimir Putin’s speech before the Valdai International Discussion Club, 19 September 2013. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19243. Last accessed 123 November 2015.

[69] Mikhail Delyagin (2013). Speech delivered 26 September 2013 to the Forum of Hope (Forum strannoy nadezhdy). http://zavtra.ru/content/view/forum-strannoj-nadezhdyi/. Last accessed 13 November 2015. The quoted text also appears in in Elena Chebankova (2015). “Competing Ideologies of Russia’s Civil society.” Europe-Asia Studies. 67:2, 247.

[70]Ibid.

[71] Michel Foucault (1982). ‘The Subject and Power.” Critical Inquiry. 8:4, 789-790. http://www.csun.edu/~snk1966/M.%20Foucault%20–%20The%20Subject%20and%20…. Last accessed 14 November 2015.

[72] Pierre Manent (1996). “La démocratie sans la nation?” Commentaire. 1996/3:75, 571-572.

[73] Ariadne Lewanska & Pierre Manent (2011). “Migration, patriotism and the European agendum: An interview with historian of ideas Pierre Manent.” Eurozine [published online 21 September 2011]. http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2011-09-21-manent-en.html. Last accessed 14 November 2015.

[74] The quoted phrase is from Daniel J. Mahoney (1997). “De Gaulle and the Death of Europe.” The National Interest. Summer 1997, 54.

[75] Mitchell A. Orenstein, Péter Krekó, & Attila Juhász (2015). “The Hungarian Putin?” Foreign Affairs [published online 8 February 2015]. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/hungary/2015-02-08/hungarian-putin. Last accessed 14 November 2015.

[76] Foucault in essence reinvented the term “biopolitics,” which was coined in the 1920s by the Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellén (1864–1922), who also coined the term geopolitics.

[77] This phrase (Hungarian: mi, magyarok a földrész gaulle-istái) is from Mr. Orbán’s 27 July 2015 “Tusnádfürdő” speech before the 26th Bálványos Summer Open University and Student Camp.

[78] “The demon that makes us repeat our past errors is never far away.” From Dominique Strauss Kahn’s July 2015 essay, A mes amis allemands (“To my German friends”). https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3BAHVwc7GNaSVJLZWZybjUycjg/view?pli=1. Last accessed 28 October 2015.

[79] Sámuel Ágoston Mráz (2015). ” Az új De Gaulle.” Mandiner [published online in Hungarian 4 August 2015]. http://mandiner.hu/cikk/20150804_mraz_agoston_samuel_az_uj_de_gaulle. Last accessed 29 October 2015.

[80] Hunyadi is a Hungarian national hero who fought invading Ottoman armies during the 1440s and 1450s. Perhaps his greatest success was to repulse the army of Sultan Mohammed II at Belgrade in 1456. His contemporary, the French diplomat and writer Philippe de Commines, celebrated Hunyadi in his memoirs as the Chevalier Blanc de Valaigne (the “White Knight of Wallachia”) for the color of his armor. Ákos Csúri suggests in a July 2015 blog post that Orbán is a modern-day Hunyadi whose stance on asylum-seekers “halted the Islamic conquest of Christian Europe.” [Csúri (2015). “Hunyadi És Orbán.” http://atlagpolgar.blogstar.hu/2015/07/22/hunyadi-es-orban/19476/. Last accessed 28 October 2015]. His suggestion was decried as “grotesque and tasteless” by Ákos Balogh in a blog post on the portal Mandiner. See: “Hunyadi Orbán De Gaulle Viktor − Ilyen ország pedig nincs CDVIII.” Mandiner.blog.hu [published online in Hungarian 6 August 2015]. http://mandiner.blog.hu/2015/08/06/hunyadi_orban_de_gaulle_viktor_ilyen_…. Last accessed 29 October 2015.

[81] Ibid.

[82] ldikó Lendvai (2015). “A kettéfűrészelt De Gaulle.” Népszava Online [published online in Hungarian 8 August 2015]. http://nepszava.hu/cikk/1065993-a-kettefureszelt-de-gaulle/?utm_source=m…. Last accessed 2 November 2015.

[83] More commonly known by its German language acronym “IEG” (Institut für Europäische Geschichte).

[84] Péter Techet (2015). “Orbán a magyar De Gaulle?” hvg.hu [published online 8 August 2015]. http://hvg.hu/velemeny/20150808_Orban_a_magyar_De_Gaulle. Last accessed 28 October 2015.

[85] “A magyar De Gaulle” (2010). Népszava [published online in Hungarian 1 June 2010]. http://nepszava.hu/articles/article.php?id=304282&utm_source=mandiner&ut…. Last accessed 3 November 2015.

[86] Tibor Várkonyi (2012). “Victor d’Orban.” Népszava [published online in Hungarian 20 January 2012]. http://nepszava.hu/articles/article.php?id=512521&utm_source=mandiner&ut…. Last accessed 2 November 2015.

[87] Tibor Várkonyi (2014). “Bitorlás.” Népszava [published online in Hungarian 14 October 2014]. http://nepszava.hu/cikk/1036486-bitorlas?utm_source=mandiner&utm_medium=…. Last accessed 2 November 2014.

[88] Pesti Sándor (2014). “Orbán és Hitler.” Népszava [published online in Hungarian 28 April 2014]. http://nepszava.hu/cikk/1018707-orban-es-hitler?utm_source=mandiner&utm_…. Last accessed 3 November 2015.

[89] Vladislav Inozemtsev (2015). Obyknovennyy fashizm. Pravda o Vladimire Putine. Novosti Vremya [published online in Russian 14 July 2015]. http://nv.ua/opinion/Inozemtsev/obyknovennyy-fashizm-pravda-o-vladimire-…. Last accessed 3 November 2015. The historian Jeremi Suri offers a similar thesis: “Putin is more of a ‘classical’ fascist, in the model of Benito Mussolini in early 20th-century Italy or Francisco Franco, who ruled Spain after the country’s bloody civil war. Mussolini and Franco built their dictatorships on the promise of greatness, the display of force, and the myth of a savior who would carry a fallen people back to the top of the international pyramid of power. They asserted near-total control over their societies for the purpose of bringing complete transformation. Most of all, they exploited opportunities for attacking vulnerable citizens (especially Jews) and weaker neighbors (especially in North Africa). Conspicuous assertions of Italian and Spanish physical superiority served to galvanize followers and generate apparent greatness.” Suri (2014). “A Certain Breed of Fascism: Jeremi Suri on Putin.” The Alcade [published online 5 May 2014]. http://alcalde.texasexes.org/2014/05/a-certain-breed-of-fascism-jeremi-s…. Last accessed 5 November 2015.

[91] A June 2015 report by the German Council on Foreign Relations — known by its German acronym DGAP (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik) — found that “much of the German and international press quoted him as referring to ‘illiberal democracies,’ whereas Orbán had in fact chosen the formulation ‘illiberal states.’ In doing so, the media made a connection to the political practices of these states that Orbán had not intended; his criticism of ‘liberal states’ was clearly meant to apply only to the shortcomings of free-market economies.” See: DGAP (2015). Hungary in the Media, 2010-2014. Critical Reflections on Coverage in the Press and Media. Final Report of the working Group on Hungary, 3. https://dgap.org/en/article/getFullPDF/26856. Last accessed 5 November 2015.

[92] Mr. Orbán’s phrase reads in the original Hungarian “demokráciát, annak is a „jelzők nélküli” változatát”. See: “Orbán Viktor: Eszménk vezércsillaga a polgári Magyarország.” Mandiner.hu [published online in Hungarian 27 February 2015]. http://mandiner.hu/cikk/20150227_orban_viktor_eszmenk_vezercsillaga_a_po…. Last accessed 5 November 2015.

[93] Yves-Michel Riols (2013). “La posture gaullienne de Viktor Orban.” Le Monde [published online in French 12 April 2013]. http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2013/04/12/la-posture-gaullienne-de…. Last accessed 5 November 2015.

[94] “Hongrie: Viktor Orbàn, un nouveau De Gaulle ? Un nain face à un géant.” Causeur [published online in French 17 April April 2013].

[95] While “exceptionalism” is an admittedly American construct, Bertalan Pethő suggests that Japanese exceptionalism is worthy of emulation by Hungary. See: Pethő (2004). “Hungarian exceptionalism.” Magyar Szemle [published online 19 October 2013]. http://www.magyarszemle.hu/cikk/20040101_hungarian_exceptionalism_. Last accessed 6 November 2015.

[96] András Boros-Kazai (2005). “Hungary.” In Robert C. Frucht, ed. Easter Europe: an introduction to the people, lands, and culture. Volume 1. (Oxford: ABC CLIO), 375.

[97] Ronald Florence (2010). Emissary of the Doomed: Bargaining for Lives in the Holocaust. (New York: Viking).

[98] Jack David Eller (1997). “Ethnicity, Culture, and ‘The Past’.” Michigan Quarterly Review. XXXVI:4. http://quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/t/text/text-idx?cc=mqr;c=mqr;c=mqrarchive;…. Last accessed 10 June 2015.

[99] Lewanska & Manent (2011), op cit.

[100] For example, see: Charles De Gaulle (1934; 1941). The Army of the Future. (Philadelphia: Lippincott, 1941), 15-21.  In Daniel J. Mahoney (1997). “De Gaulle and the Death of Europe.” The National Interest. Summer 1997, 48.

[101] Patricia A. Kyle (1977). “Review: The Grandeur That Was Charles.” The Review of Politics. 39:1, 110. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1406582?seq=2#page_scan_tab_contents. Last accessed 14 June 2015.

[102] Cerny (1980), op cit., 62.

[103] Elena Chebankova (2015). “Vladimir Putin: Making of the National Hero.” Ukraine and Russia: People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives. Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewsa & Richard Sakwa, eds. (Bristol, UK: E-International Relations Publishing), 176. http://www.e-ir.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Ukraine-and-Russia-E-IR.pdf. Last accessed 10 June 2015.

[104] Lévi-Strauss (1962), op cit., 14, 22. Norman K Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln elaborate that, “there is no one correct telling [of an]…event. Each telling, like light hitting a crystal, reflects a different perspective on [an] incident.” [Denzin & Lincoln, eds. (1999). The SAGE handbook of qualitative research, 3rd ed. (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications), 6. Quoted in Matt Rogers (2012). “Contextualizing Theories and Practices of Bricolage Research.” The Quantitative Report. 17:7, 4. http://www.nova.edu/ssss/QR/QR17/rogers.pdf. Last accessed 16 November 2015].

[105] Ibid., 19-20.

[106] Adapted from Cédric Bernard Masse (2013). “Especialidade: Sociologia das Desigualdades, das Minorias e dos Movimentos Sociais.”  Doutoramento em Sociologia, Universidade de Lisboa Instituto de Ciências Sociais. http://repositorio.ul.pt/bitstream/10451/9804/1/ulsd067021_td_Cedric_Mas…. Last accessed 10 June 2015.

[107] Jack David Eller (1997). “Ethnicity, Culture, and ‘The Past’.” Michigan Quarterly Review. XXXVI:4. http://quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/t/text/text-idx?cc=mqr;c=mqr;c=mqrarchive;…. Last accessed 10 June 2015.

[108] Quoted in A.H.E. Taylor (1918). “The Entente and Austria.” The Fortnightly Review. CIII:DCXVII (1 May 1918), 684.

[109] Meinhard Miegel & Stefanie Wahl (1993). Das Ende des Individualismus, Die Kultur des Westens zerstört sich selbst. (Munich: Bonn Aktuell).

[110] Guillame Corvus (2004). La Convergence des catastrophes. (Paris: Diffusion International), 145-146. “Guillame Corvus” is the pseudonym of the French journalist Guillame Faye, who wrote that Russia, too, is threatened by a “demographic coma.”

[111] Dominique Venner (2003). “Éditorial: L’histoire n’est jamais finie.” La Nouvelle Revue d’Histoire. 8 (September-October 2003), 7.


Pentagon Says Expeditionary Targeting Force Could Accelerate Islamic State Defeat

$
0
0

By Terri Moon Cronk

US Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s plan to deploy an expeditionary targeting force to help in putting pressure on Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorists in Iraq and Syria adds a capability that can accelerate ISIL’s defeat, a spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve told Pentagon reporters Wednesday.

Speaking via teleconference from Baghdad, Army Col. Steve Warren reiterated the secretary’s announcement before Congress yesterday, in which Carter outlined deploying about 100 personnel.

“As [the secretary] said, these special operators will be able to conduct raids, free hostages, gather intelligence and capture ISIL leaders,” Warren said.

The expeditionary targeting force will conduct operations in consultation with the Iraqi government, Warren said, adding that the partnership will strengthen Iraq’s special forces capability, and help to secure the Iraq-Syria border from ISIL.

Raids More Precise Than Before

Many of the raids will focus on high-value individuals and targets in the border region, he said. Capturing and interrogating ISIL terrorists is what the combined forces hope to do, Warren said, adding that capturing them “allows us to collect some intelligence and gain additional information and insights into our enemy’s operations.”

Though they’re considered combat operations, the colonel said, raids differ vastly from those during the war in Iraq, and are not considered major ground-combat operations,

“These … are a small number of highly skilled commandos conducting very precise, very limited operations,” he explained. “They enter an objective area, conduct the operation and exit the objective area.”

Russian S-400 in Syria Confirmed

Warren also confirmed Russia’s S-400 air defense missiles are operating near Latakia in Syria.

“We assess no change in Russian intent toward coalition aircraft, and we expect Russia will continue to abide by the memorandum of understanding,” he said, referring to the recent U.S.-Russian agreement to protect the airspace safety of U.S. and coalition aviators.

While the United States focuses on defeating ISIL and supporting opponents of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime, the Russians’ vow to fight ISIL terrorists doesn’t appear to have merit, Warren said.

“Everything they are doing is to support Assad, to keep Assad in power,” he said. “This is strategically shortsighted. Every time the Russians conduct an operation that extends or helps extend Assad’s hold on power is yet another day that Syrian civilians will suffer under the boot of Bashar al-Assad.” he said.

Iraq, Syria OIR Update

Warren said Iraqi forces have militarily isolated the city of Ramadi after seizing the Palestine Bridge on Nov. 25, and are now poised to begin the clearing phase. The coalition yesterday conducted 37 engagements and nine strikes that killed 47 ISIL fighters, he added.

The Syrian Democratic Forces, spearheaded by the Syrian-Arab coalition, retain Hawl, Syria, against local counterattacks and are clearing out pockets of resistance, he noted.

In Mara, vetted Syrian opposition forces and new Syrian forces maintain their defensive positions and are planning future offensive operations. “Our goal is to see these efforts mature as forces continue to push south and put increased pressure on the enemy,” Warren said.

Airstrikes Shown on Videos

ISIL uses a tunnel-and-trench network, which includes shallow trenches with aluminum overhead cover to larger, more elaborate underground tunnel systems for its fighters’ protection, concealment and movement, Warren said, showing reporters a video of airstrikes that struck a tunnel’s entrance, exit and length.

“These tunnels don’t provide the protection ISIL believes they do,” he said. “We’ve destroyed multiple tunnel complexes, trenches and bunkers. We have got the ability to detect and …destroy them at will.”

A second video showed an airstrike on an ISIL vehicle-borne bomb factory and staging area near Qaim in Iraq’s Anbar province that Warren said reduced ISIL’s ability to produce improvised explosive devices.

The coalition’s strikes comprise the “most precise air campaign in the history of air campaigns, [and] in the history of warfare, frankly,” the colonel said. “Never has such precision been brought to bear in a situation.”

Soccer Unites China And UAE In Pursuing Global Ambitions – Analysis

$
0
0

A $400 million sale by a senior member of the UAE ruling family of a 13 percent stake in Manchester City FC to China Media Capital (CMC), a subsidiary of China Media Group Corporation (CMG), a state-backed investment conglomerate, highlights the importance of soccer in the two countries’ ambitions to project themselves on the international stage.

The sale, which values Manchester City at $3 billion, puts to bed any suggestion that Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al Nahayan’s original $400 million acquisition in 2008 of the then troubled English club was an act of vanity. It further underscores the UAE’s development from what Bloomberg news called the Switzerland of the Gulf to its military and diplomatic Sparta.

The sale is part of a bid to employ the UAE’s financial muscle to project the Gulf state despite its small population and loose federal structure as a major military, political and diplomatic power capable of marshalling its armed forces, foreign service and ruling family to shape politics and policies far beyond its borders. The sale also signals UAE intentions to further expand into China and cement relations with a global behemoth.

City Football Group (CFG), which owns clubs in New York and Melbourne alongside Manchester City, said in a statement that “the deal will create an unprecedented platform for the growth of City Football Group clubs and companies in China and internationally, borne out of CFG’s ability to provide a wealth of industry expertise and resources to the rapidly developing Chinese football industry.”

The deal puts into perspective Manchester City’s earlier decision to appoint its former player, Sun Jihai, as its ambassador to China and to include him in the hall of fame at Manchester’s National Football Museum, a move that initially raised eyebrows in the British soccer community.

China last year stressed the importance it attributes to soccer domestically as well as internationally with the unveiling of a 50-point plan to turn the country into a football giant. In a first step, Guangzhou Evergrande Taobao FC won the Asian Football Championship.

The plan made soccer a mandatory part of China’s school curriculum, pledged to establish 50,000 soccer schools and multiple academies over the next decade, and to set up a soccer lottery that would help fund the sport’s development. The plan also envisions professionalization of the Chinese Football Association (CFA), by separating it from China’s ports bureaucracy but not from Chinese politics.

Taiwanese soccer scholar Tien-Chin Tan argues that Chinese leaders see their country’s poor soccer performance as a “slap in its leader’s face” against the backdrop on China being a top scorer in Olympic competitions.

The Chinese emphasis on soccer, alongside the hosting of mega events like various Olympic games, further reflects President Xi Jinping’s personal passion first expressed in 2011 during a meeting with South Korean officials even before he became his country’s leader. Mr. Xi said that his three personal ambition were for China to qualify for the World Cup, host the event and, ultimately win it.

The Manchester City deal follows the adding of Le Sports, a subsidiary of China’s largest online video company, LeTV, to the list of Dutch club AFC Ajax’s Chinese sponsors, which includes Huawei, Sengled, and CST. The agreement calls for the establishment of an Ajax training camp in China.

“Football is now at a fascinating and critical stage of development in China. We see unprecedented growth opportunities in both its development as an industry, being China’s most watched sport, and its inspirational role bringing people of all ages together with a shared passion,” said CMG chairman Li Ruigang. “We and our consortium partner CITIC Capital also see this investment as a prime opportunity for furthering the contribution of China to the global football family.”

The sale has significant economic benefits, including opening up to the UAE what is likely to become the world’s foremost soccer market involving opportunities to market its Manchester City and other brands in China, capitalize on opportunities arising from the country’s soccer development plan, and the English Premier League’s increasing popularity in China.

The degree to which soccer allows the UAE, which packages its repression of dissent at home and fierce opposition to any expression of political Islam that translates into pressuring other countries into adopting its hard line views, to exert leverage and project itself as a force of enlightenment is obvious in public statements by its representatives as well as media reports on its diplomatic moves.

The Guardian reported last month that Manchester City chairman Khaldoon Al-Mubarak, a close business associate of UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, had warned the UK that his country would block multi-billion dollar arms deals, halt investment in Britain and suspend intelligence cooperation if Prime Minister David Cameron failed to crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood.

“Success on the battlefield may be the easy part,” the UAE’s ambassador to the United States, Yousef Al Otaiba, said in an article in Foreign Policy, entitled ‘A Vision for a Moderate, Modern Muslim World.’ Mr. Al Otaiba was referring to the UAE’s military engagements, first and foremost among which Yemen in which some 50 Emirati soldiers have so far died. “

We know that to win, we must not only defeat what we are against, but we must also define what we as Muslims and Arabs are for,” Mr. Al Otaiba added.

He said that the UAE was “testing a new vision for the region — an alternative, future-oriented ideology. It is a path guided by the true tenets of Islam: respect, inclusion, and peace. It empowers women, embraces diversity, encourages innovation, and welcomes global engagement.”

In many respects, the UAE’s social and economic achievements as well as the projection of its military prowess in countries like Yemen and Libya is beyond doubt. Nonetheless, the UAE’s achievements are also geared to cementing autocratic family rule.

Soccer with Manchester City in the lead, alongside high expenditure on public relations, has allowed the ambitious Gulf state to project itself as a modern, enlightened state rather than a repressive, autocratic regime that understands that economic and social development coupled with the ability to punch internationally above its weight is key to the survival of its regime.

The sale to China of a stake in Manchester City strengthens the UAE’s strategy and adds an arrow to its quiver. It aligns the UAE’s global ambitions with those of China and strengthens perceptions of the UAE as a global player.

Ian Smith of Sports Integrity Matters underlined soccer’s importance to the UAE and other Gulf states when he noted that “nothing happens without there being a political overtone to it because of the nature in which these countries are governed.” Harnessing soccer for political interests, Mr. Smith said, stems both from the sport’s utility as well as a “pervasiveness (in the Gulf) that there is no matter that the government should not be involved in.”

NATO Invites Montenegro To Start Talks To Become Member

$
0
0

NATO Foreign Ministers decided on Wednesday to invite Montenegro to start accession talks to become the 29th member of the Alliance. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hailed the decision as “historic,” adding “this is a good day for Montenegro, a good day for the Western Balkans and a good day for the Alliance.”

Stoltenberg stressed the decision was “an important step in the Euro-Atlantic integration of the entire Western Balkans region and it makes clear that NATO keeps its door open, to complete our vision of a Europe whole, free and at peace.”

The decision to invite Montenegro was taken during a meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of Foreign Ministers. Montenegro’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Igor Lukšić and Defence Minister, Professor Milica Pejanović-Đurišić were invited to join the meeting after the decision was taken.

Since 2009, NATO and Montenegro have worked closely together through the Membership Action Plan, which helps nations prepare for possible future membership. Stoltenberg said Wednesday’s decision reflected Montenegro’s “unwavering commitment to our common values and to international security.”

Stoltenberg said it was important for Montenegro to continue on its reform path, “on defence adaptation, on domestic reform, especially rule of law, and to continue to make progress in demonstrating public support for Montenegro’s NATO membership.” The Secretary General said that the Alliance will continue to monitor progress in these areas as Allies start the accession talks and during the ratification process.

Wednesday’s decision will pave the way for accession talks to start in early 2016. Once they are concluded, Allies will sign an accession protocol which will have to be ratified by parliaments in all 28 Allies. Once that process is completed, Montenegro will be able to accede to the Washington Treaty and become a member of the Alliance.

Good For NATO, But For Montenegro? – OpEd

$
0
0

By Marcus Tanner

Signing up Montenegro will benefit the Atlantic alliance, but whether it will do Montenegro much good is less clear.

Make no mistake. If push comes to shove and NATO gets embroiled in a full-scale military conflict, the addition of Montenegro will not make a difference.

With all of about 2,000 troops at its disposal, the 29th state to join the Atlantic alliance has a good claim to be its least significant members, militarily. It is up there, or rather down there, with Luxembourg.

Military considerations – of course – have nothing to do with this decision, which is all about politics and strategy.

The politics of admitting Montenegro are clear. NATO is sending a signal, in the direction of Moscow, that it can expand in whichever direction it wants to, whether or not Russia feels its own interests are being crossed in the process. It recognizes no opposing sphere of interest.

The wider strategy is also clear. With the addition of Montenegro, the Alliance is one step closer to turning the Mediterranean into a NATO lake, and shutting Russia out of that lake in the process.

The entire north side of the Med has long belonged to NATO countries – Spain, France and Italy. The south side is not, but none of the North African states, Morocco, Algeria, or Egypt, is beholden to Russia. Libya has ceased to function and does not count.

Now that Croatia, Albania and Montenegro are in the bag, along with Greece, NATO has wrapped up the entire Adriatic section as well. That only leaves the eastern Med, where Russia has its sole client state in what remains of Bashar Al-Assad’s Syrian fiefdom. Not much of a consolation prize.

No wonder Russia is aggrieved. With some justification, it feels the West has again snatched one of its natural clients or satellites right from under its eyes.

First Georgia, then Ukraine, now Montenegro. The Russians have long memories – and have not forgotten that Montenegro was once little more than an extension of Russia – its monarchs dependent on annual subsidies from the Tsar.

While Montenegro-in-NATO will clearly serve the alliance’s interests – there is nothing like a bit of expansion to make you feel good – the big question is whether it will do much good to Montenegro.

Here the balance sheet is harder to call. Of course it aligns the country even further as part of “the West” in a broad sense. But it is unlikely to make much of a difference to Montenegro’s progress towards EU membership.

Serbia is also making its way – slowly – into the EU camp and there is no sign that Serbia’s non-membership of NATO will hinder its progress. Indeed, some in the EU dream of a European armed force, which, if it was ever created, would be independent of NATO.

The other downside for Montenegro is that membership of the Alliance remains a very divisive domestic issue, more so than in any other member state.

Even in Greece, with its strong anti-American tradition, there is no clamour against being in NATO. Greeks of almost all political persuasions value NATO as a referee between them and Turkey. Montenegro needs no such shield against any of its neighbours.

In Montenegro, at least a third of the population, the ethnic Serbian community basically, is solidly against becoming part of an alliance that bombed Serbia out of Kosovo not many years ago. NATO membership, therefore, really is only a sectional interest – the policy of the ruling parties – not an expression of the national will.

The problem for the many opponents of NATO in Montenegro is that there is not much they can do about it now, unless the government falls tomorrow.

There is no precedent for any country leaving NATO, although it is theoretically possible to do so. Even if they do force out Milo Djukanovic and take power themselves, they will now probably have to live with one of his most important legacies.

Climate Change And Human Rights: Securing The Right To Life – Analysis

$
0
0

By Samir Saran and Vidisha Mishra*

Climate change poses both direct and indirect threats to human rights: the right to food, the right to water and sanitation, access to affordable commercial energy, as well as the consequent larger right to development. Issues such as forced mass migration, threat of climate-linked conflict situations, direct and indirect threats to health and healthcare systems, and the impacts on land and livelihoods all demonstrate that climate change and human rights concerns are closely interwoven. The right to a life of dignity and the right to life itself are at stake.

At the heart of the problem of climate change is a twisted irony – the countries that have been least responsible for the problem are the ones likely to suffer the most. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions arose from the economic activity of developed countries but the worst impacts of climate change will be felt by poorer nations. People who are already vulnerable and marginalized will be more affected than those who have greater capacity to absorb adverse impacts. The impacts of climate change will be transnational but they will not affect everybody equally.

At present, almost a third of all yearly human deaths are due to poverty-related causes. The situation is only likely to get exacerbated in the future with the increasing impact of climate change. Women and girls make up a disproportionate number of the world’s poor, which renders them even more vulnerable. For instance, in rural India, women are predominantly responsible for providing food and water. Hence, the effects of climate change on soil fertility, water availability and food security have very direct impacts on women. Further, the 2004 earthquake and tsunami highlighted the higher vulnerability of Indian women in disaster situations, when four times as many Indian women as men died in the affected region. This is one example of how climate change widens existing inequalities, which could be lethal for India where besides gender, caste- and class- related disparities also determine the levels of human rights enjoyed by citizens.

While global climate negotiations must inevitably focus on protecting the environment and safeguarding natural resources for future generations, it is essential that they never forsake the immediate development needs of the most vulnerable populations across the globe. To do that, the debate on climate change must focus especially on equitability, access to energy, and sharing of space. Clearly, development is not just an economic and social necessity; it is also the best adaptation to climate change. Development which leads to strengthening of the response-capabilities and assets of vulnerable populations is crucial for safeguarding their basic human rights to life, health and livelihoods, as well as for successful climate change adaptation and mitigation.

This is especially relevant for emerging economies like India, home to an estimated 33% of the world’s poorest 1.2 billion people. Safeguarding the right to development is crucial here, as it will implicate the right to life itself. A successful approach would be one that does not view environment protection and poverty eradication as mutually-exclusive domains. There is little morality in saving the planet when a third of all humans still do not live beyond the fourth decade, while a seventh of them live well beyond eight decades.

In fact, the dominant narrative of de-linking energy emissions from growth within climate negotiations fosters an implicit narrative of possible human rights suppressions in developing countries. Economist Tim Jackson has explored the popular narrative of “absolute decoupling” of emissions from economic growth. According to his findings, while it is possible to slow the growth of emissions relative to the growth rate of the economy, it is implausible to stall or reverse emissions while the economy is still in the process of expanding – the existence ofcarbon-saving technologies notwithstanding.

India has yet to peak its energy consumption and is still striving to provide the minimum lifeline energy of 2000-W per capita – that is, the per capita energy consumption with which a first world citizen could live in 2050 without lowering their present standard of living (as per a 1998 study by the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich). Research suggests that access to energy is essential for poverty alleviation, and in improving livelihood opportunities in developing countries. Although India’s per capita energy consumption is far lower than that of China, the U.S. and the European Union, India is the world’s fourth largest energy consumer overall and the world’s third largest carbon emitter. The country’s stand at climate change negotiations is likely to be focused on the twin ambitions of economic growth and access to energy for human development while pursuing a clean energy agenda.

What concerns much of the developed world is that while they have generally reduced their coal consumption in the recent past (post-financial crisis), India has increased its consumption over the same period. However, analysis indicates that this increase in consumption should not be considered reflective of the country’s ‘irresponsibility’ towards the climate. Rather, it must be emphasised that on a per capita basis, India burns roughly a fifth of the coal that the U.S. does, and a third of the EU. As we move towards 2050, where we seek to limit per capita emission to 2 tonnes of CO2 (Eqv.) for the estimated 9 billion inhabitants of planet Earth, personal energy space, carbon allowances, fuel choices and lifestyle emissions must start to converge. Here, the crucial distinction between accesses to lifeline energy versus lifestyle energy needs to be strongly articulated. The former reflects the minimum energy required to fulfil what can be categorised as “basic human needs”, measured through GDP growth rate targets, HDI levels, as well as estimations of the energy required to meet a predetermined set of development goals. However, if lifeline energy is understood to be high – enough to cover the minimum lifestyle needs of citizens in developed countries – anything beyond that ought to be defined as lifestyle energy. Therefore, while it will strive to move towards cleaner energy, India is likely to rely on coal consumption in order to grow its industrial base and develop its economy. Without development and poverty alleviation, India will be unable to invest in renewables or be climate-resilient. More succinctly, “India will need to grow its coal capacity if it is to successfully go green”. The existing inequitable sharing of carbon space is the point of departure for conversations around climate justice and equity.

In December this year, at the Conference of Parties (COP) 21, countries will attempt to formulate a global climate agreement by integrating voluntary and self-determined national contributions of 193 countries. The negotiations in Paris must ensure that the agreement is not so focused on safeguarding the rights of future generations that it ends up sacrificing the lives and prospects of existing at-risk and vulnerable populations in developing countries. Notwithstanding the “creeping normalcy” of climate impact, climate change induced natural disasters and extreme weather events are already upon those populations and are only likely to be more extreme in the future.

In this context, a rights-based approach, could “analyse obligations, inequalities and vulnerabilities,” and “redress discriminatory practices and unjust distributions of power,” as specified by the United Nations Human Rights Commission. It can be established that such obligations apply to the targets and commitments of States in the context of climate change, and therefore future climate regimes should focus on protecting the rights of those most vulnerable to climate change. The Declaration on the Right to Development proclaimed by the UNFCCC articulates these human rights principles, and calls for States to address the issue in keeping with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in order to benefit both present and future generations.

In a still dramatically unequal world, realizing low-carbon, climate-resilient, and sustainable development in all countries is not possible without international cooperation in finance, technology, and capacity-building. It must also be acknowledged that climate change mitigation is not plausible without eradicating poverty and ensuring climate justice across and within nations. Integrating human rights into climate actions and empowering the most vulnerable populations such as women and children in developing countries to participate as change-makers in the adaptation and mitigation processes will expedite the mobilisation required to combat the impacts. Providing energy access is an auxiliary for gender equality, women’s empowerment and inclusive development.

Ahead of the Paris conference, the Indian Prime Minister has urged the global community to focus on ‘climate justice’ over climate change. Under-consumption of the poor cannot subsidise the over-consumption of the rich, both across and within nations. In order for future negotiations to be sustainable and successful, States must strive to rise above rhetoric and power-play to shoulder the dual responsibilities of protecting the environment while upholding the rights to life and development – equitably, if not equally.

*Samir Saran is A Senior Fellow and Vice President and Vidisha Mishra a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Courtesy: Global Policy Journal

Viewing all 73702 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images