Indonesians’ response to the recent Jakarta terror attacks marks a significant shift of attitude toward terrorism and martyrdom. It is a stark contrast to seven years ago when a similar situation took place in the world’s most populous Muslim country.

By Md Saiful Alam Shah Bin Sudiman*

There appeares to be a noticeable shift in attitude among a section of Indonesians towards the notion of martyrdom as practised by Islamist militants, most recently in the 14 January attacks in Jakarta.

Seven years ago, when three of the four convicted 2002 Bali bombers were executed by firing squad, their bodies were given a heroic burial by villagers in their respective hometowns. Some even claimed that they were the true symbols of martyrdom. There was a black banner with a worrying quote in Bahasa Indonesia that read “3 Orang Mati Syahid TUMBUH 3,000 MUJAHID” [“The death of 3 MARTYRS gives rise to 3000 MUJAHID (jihadi fighters).”]

Although sympathy for the trio notably came mostly from their villages, to a certain degree, it also reflected the confused support for the Bali bombers, probably because the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) that they were affiliated with was not portrayed as brutal and inhumane as the so-called Islamic State that came thereafter.

Community rejection of terrorism

It was a contrast in the case of Ahmad Muhazan and Sunakim alias Afif, two of the four dead terrorists in this month’s Jakarta attacks. The media reported that villagers rejected the bodies of both militants for burial. The duo’s involvement in the attacks was seen as an act that tarnished the image of Islam.

A white-coloured banner was erected in Indramayu, West Java, in the hometown of suicide bomber Ahmad Muhazan. It read “Warga Kedungwungu – Indramayu Menolak – Mayat – Teroris” (“The People of Kedungwungu – Indramayu Reject the body of Terrorist”). The media also reported that substantial numbers of locals demonstrated to reinforce the rejection. What is more glaring this time was the participation of a local ulama (religious scholar) in the rally to register the point. A similar though less intense response greeted fellow attacker Afif’s body. The people of the village in Subang, West Java where Afif was born rejected his burial there despite his wife’s appeal. They saw his action as not just a disgrace to the community but also a violation of law and religion.

Elsewhere, the local Islamic youth movement in Purwokerto, Central Java, took to the street in protest against the 14 January attacks. They were reportedly carrying placards that read “Let’s reject the caliphate – it damages Indonesian unity”. At the site of the attacks, people were seen walking around holding placards “Kami Berduka #KamiTidakTakut (We are sad #WeAreNotAfraid), Kami Berduka #IndonesiaTidakTakut (We are sad #IndonesiaIsNotAfraid)”.

Indonesians’ growing public antipathy towards terrorism is a healthy development. They should turn this into a positive social movement to counter the growth of ISIS.

Why the different response this time?

While there is some support for ISIS in Indonesian society, there is an even stronger evidence of growing opposition to ISIS that is worth analysing. There could be two reasons. Firstly, relative to JI, ISIS’ behaviour is barbaric and cruel. JI had mostly carried out bomb attacks while ISIS is synonymous with unprecedented persecutions ever committed by any terror groups in the last century. The beheading of captives; the burning of POWs alive; the hurling down of gay couples from tower blocks, among others, have won the group a notorious reputation.

Soon after ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks, Indonesians had no qualms to disavow the group, its agenda and anyone associated with it. Secondly, Indonesia has been, for decades, marred by terrorist activities. The twin bombings of the JW Marriott and Ritz Carlton hotels in 2009 were the last major terrorist attack in Indonesia that made headlines around the world.

But Indonesians are increasingly defying the terrorists, as could be seen in how quickly Jakartans recovered from the 14 January attacks. Such unprecedented defiance should come as a major disappointment for ISIS and its minions. A bottom-up approach to deal with terrorism is the way forward for Indonesia to curb ISIS’ influence in Indonesia.

What can Jakarta do?

Public protests against the 14 January attacks reflected genuine sentiment on the ground. Indonesia should intensify its ongoing community engagement programme. For example, the Agency for National and Political Unity (Bakesbangpol) constantly engages high school students to create awareness on the danger of terrorism. This could be intensified by getting tech-savvy students to act as ambassadors of peace, spreading anti-terrorism messages through the #hashtag movement.

It is a trendy way of expressing one’s feelings these days especially among the youth. We have seen how recent Indonesian anti-ISIS demonstrations rode on similar platforms to convey their opposition toward ISIS. The #hashtag movement has the potential to evolve into a national movement against terrorism in general and ISIS in particular.

Another way to project this work as a bottom-up initiative is by getting local and international Jakarta-based business enterprises as partners. They could play a more significant role in the respective Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) domain by stepping forward to sponsor a streamlined anti-terrorism educational kit or public education pamphlet.

These could be in the form of bite-size information on why terrorism is a serious national security problem that stands between Indonesians and their national aspiration to live in unity and peace. Alternatively, similar messages can also be conveyed through advertisements on billboards found across Jakarta, bus and train stations and even shopping malls.

There is a need to magnify public sentiments against terrorism in Indonesia. Instead of giving the spotlight to terrorist attacks which only strengthens their appeal, more coverage should now be given to initiatives to build community resilience. This is how society will eventually be the decisive force that will defeat terrorism.

*Md Saiful Alam Shah Bin Sudiman is an Associate Research Fellow with the International Centre for Political Violence & Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

By Daniel Vásquez

With the intent to reach the United States as refugees, thousands of Cubans have created a migration crisis in Central America

The Cuban Adjustment Act, which for half a century has admitted Cuban refugees into the United States to live and work legally, remains one of Havana’s major points of contention against Washington in this new era of diplomatic relations that began a year ago. This has especially become a serious issue following the migration crisis of thousands of Cubans in Central America that began in November.

The restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries — after hostilities since the 1960s — has been championed by Democratic President Barack Obama as a way to remove a policy that has not produced the results the White House expected in promoting internal changes in Cuba. This is also a sign of acceptance that the Cold War is over and that more effective policies are needed to influence the communist island and to strengthen the United States’ leadership in Latin America.

Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro’s conciliatory speeches on Dec. 17, 2014 surprised the public by announcing the mutual willingness to restore diplomatic ties. This also triggered an alarm among thousands of people who fear the rapprochement between the two governments will be the end of the legal framework that has since 1966 allowed Cuban citizens to enter the United States by claiming they are fleeing communism, requesting refugee status and after a year and a day applying for permanent residence.

US official data reveal the arrival of more than 43,000 Cubans during fiscal year 2014-2015 — 24,278 arrived the previous fiscal year in October 2013 to September 2014 — which includes not only those who recently left Cuba, but also those who were previously living in other countries but still considered enclaves like Florida as a familiar territory, a kind of promised land with advantageous conditions to thrive in a related cultural environment.

Last year, Havana redoubled its complaints against the Cuban Adjustment Act, the program that welcomes Cuban doctors and the asylum to Cubans who reach US soil, arguing that such policies no longer make sense when both countries are normalizing relationships. At the same time, Cuba called for an end to the economic, commercial and financial embargo that has been in place for more than half a century. The Cuban government blames this embargo for the domestic economic failures.

On Dec. 29, Raúl Castro reiterated this to the Cuban parliament when he declared that “the ‘wet feet, dry feet policy’, the Cuban Medical Professional Parole Program and the Cuban Adjustment Act remain the main stimulus for irregular migration from Cuba to the United States” and said that “we have reiterated to the US government that to normalize bilateral relations, the blockade must be lifted and the territory taken by the Guantanamo Naval Base must be returned.”

“Murderous law”

Throughout the years, the official Cuban press has called the Cuban Adjustment Act a “murderous law” because it encourages illegal emigration from the island and encourages people to risk their lives at sea in order to reach Florida. In 2015 the complaints against the law increased because Cuba claims that the exodus of Cubans causes instability in neighboring countries where Cubans cross. Until late last year, Cubans flew from Havana to Ecuador and traveled some 5,000 km on land to reach the United States.

Other arguments Cuba has raised against the aforementioned regulation is that it causes an exodus of the skilled workforce, a claim that has been supported by recent demographic studies that confirm a trend of aging population in the island, low birth rate and stagnant population growth. Analysts and the official press have expressed concern regarding the impact of this situation for economic development.

“Today one Cuban works to sustain four or five people on average; this is expected to double. We must get used to the fact that we will run, even the workplace, mostly with a population of 60 years of age and over,” said sociologist Antonio Aja, Director of the Center for Demographic Studies, in a recent interview with the Cuban press. He also warned of the need to develop public policies to address this phenomenon.

The images of thousands of Cubans stranded in Costa Rica since mid-November, when Nicaragua stopped them from continuing on their land route to the United States, claiming a threat to internal security, shows mostly the faces of men and women. Many of them told the press that they have technical training or are university graduates. They expressed their desire not to return to live in their homeland and explained that to leave they had to sell all their possessions.

The United States has reiterated over the past two months that for now it is not expected to repeal the Cuban Adjustment Act. However, the people in Havana are incredulous regarding these claims, to the extent that the restoration of bilateral relations caused widespread surprise. Cubans interviewed by Latinamerica Press, who asked to keep their identities in reserve, confessed their certainty that both governments already have some understanding that will bring other surprises.

“For decades, I participated in large popular marches at the Plaza of the Revolution and at the US Interests Office in Cuba against US policies toward Cuba. However, in 2014, Raúl Castro did not consult me in any way on whether to restore relations with the enemy “, said Luisa, a 70-year-old Havana resident, to substantiate her opinion that the presidents of both countries have chosen to agree privately and then inform the public of their decisions. “Now I expect any other surprise,” she says.

Moreover, the outbreak of the crisis in November, when the government of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, an ally of Havana, forcibly stopped the entry of Cubans through Nicaragua’s border, followed by Ecuador’s announcement that it would restored the visa requirement for Cubans, fueled rumors in Cuba that the government would be using the incident of Cubans stranded in Central America to blame the United Sates as largely responsible for the crisis.

Protests in Havana

The Cuban official press took days to respond and report the incidents. The dissatisfaction with the sudden resumption of visa requirements for travel to Ecuador prompted Cubans who had already bought their tickets to Quito to gather in late November in front of the embassy in Havana to rally against the Ecuadorian government and against their own government despite the presence of troops and police cameras, an unusual type of protest on the island.

“I saw everything,” says Marisa, who lives in Havana, who accompanied her son to the Ecuadorian consulate when the visa requirement for Cubans was suddenly restored. “People protested without fear and demanded that Ecuadorian official give explanations.”

The migrant exodus has been a constant discussion topic in Cuba since Fidel Castro came to power in 1959. For decades, Cubans’ desire to move to the United States was seen as the ultimate expression of disagreement with the socialist project. Those who left considered themselves exiles and usually had to endure torturous paperwork procedures or leave illegally. Now, the exodus of the XXI century also includes a strong sense of economic discontent.

The exodus to the United States exposes in a very concentrated way the internal contradictions in the island. The government of Raúl Castro has promoted economic reforms such as self-employment, land in usufruct to farmers, and private business in industries such as lodging, transportation and gastronomy. However, these policies have not been successful fast enough to motivate young people and professionals to wait for times of prosperity. On the other hand, the government’s approval of the arrival of US tourists with dollars tacitly feeds the image that local progress is interwoven with the northern neighbor.

The truth is that the flow of Cubans to the United States has a history dating back to the XIX century and has influenced the island, its political and diplomatic relations. A removal of the Cuban Adjustment Act would suppose a change of the scene, but not an end to the close migratory ties with the United State, where there is a Cuban community estimated at about 2 million people.

After years of exporting to the world, China’s now struggling to keep her economy moving amid a slowing global economy.

The alternative could be political unrest among a populace choking on pollution that’s increasingly rendering hollow President Xi Jinping’s ‘Chinese Dream.’

Overseas infrastructure, therefore, represents a key pump-priming relief valve for the Chinese economy.

Understanding China’s deep need for overseas infrastructure export projects t can significantly strengthen the negotiating power of AIIB borrowers. That’s because China needs employment-generating overseas outward investment as much as AIIB borrowers need infrastructure make overs.

Faced with a slowing domestic economy already choking on wasteful infrastructure investment, China must ‘keep pedaling’ (ie to maintain momentum in its infrastructure industry) or fall off (suffer politically-destabilizing rising domestic unemployment in key infrastructure industries).

China’s leaders knows this. It’s economic orthodoxy at this point that China must reorient her economy away from excess investment increasing wasteful domestic infrastructure and toward domestic consumption. But that transition won’t happen overnight. Building overseas infrastructure buys time.

This levels the power relationship.

Using the bicycle analogy, the AIIB is the legs and China’s infrastructure state champions like State Grid Corp. of China and China National Overseas Oil Company (CNOOC) are the wheels. Viewed this way, the AIIB is a domestic Chinese macroeconomic management tool, not a benevolent diplomatic gift to the world — as China likes to portray.

Appreciating this fact can help AIIB borrowers get a better deal.

Consider the Philippines: in 2008, the country awarded a 25-year contract to State Grid to upgrade and operate the ramshackle Philippine electricity grid, which is vital national infrastructure.

The deal was symbiotic. State Grid got a key overseas demonstration project. The Philippines got to engage in overseas infrastructure investment where other global infrastructure companies were hesitant to tread.

By all accounts, the agreement has gone well. More lights now stay on for longer in the Philippines. Meanwhile, State Grid has used the contract as a showcase to win subsequent investments in South Australia, Italy, Brazil and elsewhere.

Happily, legitimate worries about State Grid being used as a stalking horse for progressive political Chinese domination of the Philippines have proved unfounded. Two things show this.

First, the Philippines has continued to be vocal in opposing Chinese encroachment in disputed areas the South China Sea. The Philippines is still pursuing a UN tribunal judgement over China’s Nine-Dotted Line — a decision which is expected in coming months.

Separately, the Philippines last year sent home State Grid technicians and replaced them with Philippine workers. This after largely unsubstantiated concerns were aired of a security virus in the Philippine grid of unstated, but clearly inferential, origin.

Instead of responding with strident, threatening language, State Grid quietly accepted the expulsions with little more than a call for ‘procedural fairness.’

This indicates that as State Grid and other Chinese infrastructure companies realize that as they expand internationally, they no longer occupy the home turf where capricious actions are the unchallengeable privilege of the home team.

Therefore, the devil’s bargain for China of gaining a solution to its ‘bicycle problem’ of maintaining domestic employment through export infrastructure may be a realization in China that it must play by other countries’ rules as part of its ‘Going Out’ export strategy.

Given this, AIIB borrowers may now enjoy being able to apply a few pages from China’s own successful playbook.

These can include limiting Chinese companies like State Grid and CNOOC to minority stakes with majority owner domestic joint venture partners, requiring transfer of leading edge intellectual property and requiring local staffing.

All of these are common features of Build-Operate-Transfer infrastructure projects, which already are staples of Chinese domestic projects that have involved foreign partners.

In coming years, China can be a infrastructure engine for a greening global economy using capital China is now ideally-suited to provide through the AIIB.

Done right, it can be a rising tide that lifts all ships. It can bind China into a positive web of mutually beneficial, trusting relationships.

The place to start down this path would be through funding such Chinese ‘near abroad’ infrastructure projects such as the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP) and Trans-ASEAN Electricity Grid (TAEG). Both of these fit well into China’s concepts of a One Belt, One Road concept linking China to the world.

They also fit with other energy infastructure concepts for Asia such as the Japan’s Masayoshi Son’s proposed East Asian Super Grid connecting northeast Asia and southeast Asia and Grenatec’s Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructure stretching from Australia to South Korea with gas pipelines, high voltage power lines and fiber optic cables.

This in turn could reduce the risk of territorial war in the South China Sea through creating a deepening web of cooperative ventures focused on energy security. This in turn would be best served through creating Joint Development Areas in the South China Sea protected by multilateral patrols.

This in turn would meet all the criteria of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ‘Three No’s:’

1. No interference in the internal affairs of other nations
2. Does not seek to increase the so called “sphere of influence”
3. Does not strive for hegemony or dominance

Ultimately, the AIIB can be a great force for political stability, economic growth and a greening economy in Asia. The key is recognizing that China needs to make outward investment as much as her neighbors need inward investment. Doing things right will solve a host of problems simultaneously.

This article was published at Grenatec.com

The United States Congress should adopt a blue ribbon task force’s recommendation to repeal most federal mandatory minimum sentences for drug offenses, Human Rights Watch said Tuesday. The Charles Colson Task Force, a congressionally created body with the mandate to examine overcrowding in the federal prison system, presented its findings to Congress on February 1, 2016.

In a 132-page report, the task force unanimously urged Congress to reserve federal prisons for the most serious offenders, finding that federal sentences are “often substantially greater than necessary” and that mandatory minimum sentencing laws were a primary driver of that imbalance. To that end, it recommended eliminating a vast majority of mandatory minimum sentences for drug offenses – making an exception only for drug “kingpins” participating in continuing criminal enterprises.

“Congress asked the experts, and the experts agree that drug mandatory minimums belong on the chopping block,” said Antonio Ginatta, US advocacy director at Human Rights Watch. “Federal mandatory minimums result in grossly disproportionate sentences, and there’s no way to address prison overcrowding without tackling them.”

The task force recommended applying the repeal of federal mandatory minimums retroactively, and that if Congress decides to enact future mandatory minimums of any kind, the requirement should automatically expire after five years.

Human Rights Watch recommended the elimination of all drug-related mandatory minimums 16 years ago in its report, “Punishment and Prejudice: Racial Disparities in the War on Drugs.” Judges should be able to exercise their informed judgment in crafting proportionate and effective sentences for drug offenders. Mandatory minimums make this impossible. They force judges to sentence offenders without adequate regard to the particular circumstances of their case, often resulting in disproportionate sentences for relatively minor crimes. Enforcement of US drug laws disproportionately affects racial minorities, and mandatory minimums greatly compound the impact of that broader disparity.

The task force, named for Charles Colson, the founder of the largest prison ministry in the US, also made other significant recommendations. It recommended that any person who has served 15 years in prison should have the ability to apply for resentencing before a judicial authority. It also recommended that the Bureau of Prisons should do more to promote family engagement, by housing inmates close to home and facilitating family visits, to improve reentry into the community and reduce recidivism.

Human Rights Watch, alongside 36 other organizations, supported the creation of the task force in 2013, calling on Congress to review the rapid population growth in the federal prison system. The task force was created early the following year.

Congress is considering legislation that touches on federal drug mandatory minimum sentences, yet the proposals with the most momentum keep almost all drug mandatory minimums in place, Human Rights Watch said. The Sentencing Reform and Corrections Act under consideration in the Senate broadens judges’ discretion to sentence below certain drug mandatory minimums and reduces some sentence enhancements, yet leaves underlying mandatory minimums untouched.

The more expansive SAFE Justice Act, introduced by Representatives Jim Sensenbrenner and Bobby Scott, narrows the range of offenders who would trigger a mandatory minimum based on their role in the offense. The Smarter Sentencing Act, which is currently stalled in both chambers, would cut many drug mandatory minimums in half.

“The findings of the Colson task force – on mandatory minimums and in other areas – should help refresh Congress’s thinking around criminal justice reform,” Ginatta said. “They chart a bold path for serious reform – Congress should take heed.”

By Saumitra Mohan*

Following the 1974 Indo-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) finally coming into force on 01 August 2015 for the formal exchange of 162 enclaves, expectations soared high with regards to the resolution of other sundry outstanding issues between the two South Asian neighbours. However, the same could not materialise as there remains a baggage of numerous longstanding problems.

Policymakers in both countries need to realise that India-Bangladesh relations can no longer be held hostage to their domestic politics. The opportunity cost of the same shall be too high if further time is lost to consolidate upon the historical and cultural ties by building cascading functional ties in many other issue areas.

First, there is an urgent definitive need to unleash the shackled trade potential between the two countries. However, observers feel bilateral economic ties between the two continue to be hobbled due to various undesirable restrictions and barriers. It is these restrictions that encourage illegal trade through cross-border smuggling, resulting in heavy revenue losses to both governments. There still remain several commodities and areas where trading is disallowed. Cattle smuggling is one glaring example. The prohibition of cattle trade has encouraged associated smuggling across the borders and resulted in substantive revenue loss to the exchequer.

Even though there has been substantive improvement of the infrastructures along the borders, a lot still remains to be done. The construction and improvement of the Land Customs Station (LCS), the setting up of Immigration Centres, and further development of Land Ports across the international borders are emergently required along with the simplification of procedures and protocol for bettering the ease of doing business for the traders of the two countries. A synergised approach to promote holistic economic ties will also hammer out many export-import issues between them.

Maritime connectivity between both countries has long been a problem area for their traders, who have trade via the ports of Colombo and Singapore. The recently reached consensus regarding working out the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for operating smaller river-sea vessels between the two countries is a path-breaking development and will certainly provide a major thrust to the bilateral trade by way of reduced transportation costs and increased trade volume. Contextualised with the recent commencement of the Kolkata-Dhaka-Agartala bus service, this Agreement will further consolidate the gains made thus far.

So far, large vessels from both countries skirted trade via Singapore and Colombo due to marginal profit accruals. Being fairly long routes, transportation charges and the costs of goods have only increased over the years. All these years, economic ties between New Delhi and Dhaka suffered due to adverse economies of scale. The movement of cargo across the extant maritime expanse straddling India and Bangladesh was impeded by the obtaining sea route; and due to this, such an SOP as concluded recently was not attempted all these years. It is now hoped that smaller ships will directly connect India’s eastern ports with the ports of Bangladesh, including Chittagong. It is believed that the ensuing competitive freight rates will further help bilateral trade in addition to providing direct trading linkages instead of negotiating the same through a third country.

Employment opportunities are likely to increase as a result of increased maritime trade stemming from this development, as also emphasised by Union Shipping Minister Nitin Gadkari. Nevertheless, it is felt that the list of permissible trading commodities should be expanded to further liberate the trading potential between the two neighbours. The instant agreement opens new vistas in bilateral cooperation by committing both countries to accord the same treatment to vessels of the other country as done to national vessels engaged in international transportation.

The other highlight of the SOP is that both countries have agreed to use what they call River Sea Vessels (RSV) for coastal shipping. With one trade barrier crossed, it becomes more imperative to implement the Memorandum of Understanding on the use of Mongla and Chittagong ports (both in Bangladesh) and the dredging of intervening rivers. It is axiomatic that trade cannot flourish if the draft in the upper reaches of rivers is low.

A cognate subject warranting attention is the border management of common rivers and sharing of their waters including that of Teesta. But Teesta water sharing, of all the issues, has eluded a solution due to the inability to bridge the trust deficit to reach a common ground. Foreign policy observers feel that without accommodating and securing the agricultural interests of farmers in West Bengal, it would be a real herculean task to reach a consensus on the matter.

One just hopes that India and Bangladesh continue building upon the bilateral relations via sustained engagements and cooperation, something that would have positive implications for security and strategic cooperation between both countries.

The views expressed here are personal and don’t reflect those of the Government.

*Saumitra Mohan
District Magistrate and Collector, Burdwan, West Bengal, India
E-mail: saumitramohan@gmail.com

Anyone wondering why the rest of the world sees the US administration as insane — or worse — need only spend a few minutes watching a daily briefing from the White House or especially the US State Department. These are not endeavors by intelligent and rational representatives of the US government to help explain US policies to the press corps and thereby to the rest of the world, but rather mind-numbingly sophomoric and barely literate diatribes.

Who can forget the exchange between AP’s top diplomatic reporter Matt Lee and State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf, where Mr. Lee questioned Harf on her assertion that US “evidence” for its claim that Russia was involved in the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH-17 over Ukraine came from “social media.” Pressing Harf for any evidence, he asked “is there anything other than social media” to back US claims? Yes, she said, but only offered that the US assessment was based on “common sense.”

Then there was that hilarious moment when former State Department Spokesperson Jan Psaki answered accusations by the Venezuelan government that the US was trying to push a regime change on the country.

Impossible, Psaki told the press corps:

These accusations, like all such previous accusations, are ludicrous. As a matter of longstanding policy the United States does not support political transitions by non-constitutional means. Political transitions must be democratic, constitutional, peaceful, and legal.

It is priceless to watch as Psaki is busted, again by AP reporter Matt Lee, at 1:13, for such an objectively untrue statement. And don’t miss the look on her face at 1:30. Everyone in the room, not the least Psaki herself, knows it’s an outrageous lie. The US was by that time eyebrow deep in its Syria regime-change program, had turned Libya into an al-Qaeda and ISIS safe haven with its “political transition” there, and had openly supported an unconstitutional and illegal coup in Ukraine just a year and a half earlier. Not to mention Afghanistan, Iraq, and attempts in Lebanon, Cyprus, Moldova, Macedonia, Belarus, and so on and so on.

John Kirby is a retired US Navy rear admiral who was named State Department Spokesman last May, taking over for the discredited Jan Psaki. If the press corps thought the level of debate could not get any lower in the post-Psaki era, they were sorely mistaken. The logical fallacies, gaffes, mis-steps, and all out boners pulled by Kirby make Psaki look Shakespearian by comparison.

Kirby is like a seedy but obtuse used car salesman dishing out doublespeak at a frenzied pace yet filled with righteous indignation when the rest of us smell the bovine feces suffusing his illogic.

Today’s exchange is classic Kirby. The US accused Russia of violating Turkish airspace again last week and the Russians have denied the claim. Kirby is questioned by an RT reporter as to whether the US might provide evidence to back up its accusation. Here’s how Spokesperson Kirby responded:

You know, you’re so good at asking these questions that it’s the United States’ responsibility to provide proof of what Russia is doing. Which I find incredibly comical. It’s not our job to confirm for the Russians what they’re doing. … We can confirm that on the 29th of January another Russian combat aircraft violated Turkish and NATO airspace.

Reminded that it was the US making the accusations of an airspace violation and that Russia denied US claims and requested proof, Kirby again seemed incapable of understanding that the burden of proof lies with the accuser. He shot back:

It’s not our responsibility to provide proof to the Russians for something they did wrong. …But for our part, there’s no doubt that they entered Turkish and therefore NATO airspace.

The exchange really must be seen to be believed:

Here’s a bonus round from last month: Kirby confronted by the State Department’s denial of reality in the case of North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons and Crimea’s reunion with Russia.

MATT LEE, ASSOCIATED PRESS: And then the last one is – and every time this happens, the line comes out from people in this Administration and other governments as well, is that we will not accept North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, and yet, it is. You also say this about other things too. You say you will never accept Crimea as a part of Russia. And yet, it is. Isn’t it time to recognize these things for what they are and not live in this illusion or fantasy where you pretend that things that are, are not?

ADMIRAL JOHN KIRBY (RETIRED), STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: The short answer is no.

QUESTION: No?

MR KIRBY: But I would challenge —

QUESTION: It’s preferable to live in a fantasy world?

MR KIRBY: I would challenge this idea that it’s a fantasy world. Just because – let me put it this way. At this level of foreign policy, you have to make choices. And you don’t have to accept everything —

QUESTION: You have to accept reality, though.

MR KIRBY: — even at face value. No, you – we are not going to accept North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, and we’re not going to recognize that. We are, however, going to deal with their efforts —

QUESTION: The fact that they are a nuclear-armed state.

MR KIRBY: — their efforts at developing that program.

QUESTION: Okay. Do you understand my confusion? I know this – I think it’s illogical to say that you’re not going to recognize them as a nuclear-armed state when, in fact, they are and you are operating in a way —

I think if the State Department really wants to continue down this route of illogical and anti-intellectual spokespersons who offer head-scratching non-answers to legitimate questions about US behaviors, they need to ditch the retired Navy admiral and even the Harfs and the Psakis of the world. These are mere pikers.

Who’s my pick for the next team to explain US policy actions abroad?

Imagine these young ladies explaining why the US droned, bombed, or invaded yet another country!

This article was published by the RonPaul Institute.

India’s Former National Security Adviser and foreign secretary Shivshankar Menon in a lecture in New Delhi argued that, “sooner rather than later India will have to make real political and military contributions to stability and security in this region (West Asia) that is so critical to our economy and security.”

He takes India’s “high stakes”, specifically its oil being sourced to West Asia, the presence of an Indian diaspora and remittances, as its national interest, and advocates that “our approach and behavior should change in defense of our interests.”

That India is not part of the ongoing four powers’ peace initiative closer to home in Afghanistan suggests prudence in casting out wider. Further afield in West Asia, our power is greatly diluted by distance. As a recent study points out, India does not currently have the capacity to sustain such operations, even if it would be able to do so in future.

At best India can reinforce the peace frameworks being put in place under US-Russian aegis. Militarily, it can participate in any subsequent peacekeeping, but, as pointed out by its defence minister, only under the ‘UN flag’.

The catch is in going further in terms of rolling back the ISIS by going beyond peacekeeping to peace enforcement.

As the foreign office spokesperson Vikas Swarup hastily clarified, this is a “hypothetical situation”. Menon, who plugged the liberal-realist perspective while at the helm of the national security establishment, is unlikely to have had this in mind.

What can India do? India has rightly ruled out a military solution to the conflict and backed the conference that is currently bringing all actors to the table. Interestingly, its statement in the UN makes no mention of its position on ISIS.

In standing up against regime change in Syria, the line favoured by Russia, China and Iran, India stands to be at odds with the West, Arab regimes and Israel that have consistently sought the exit of Basher al Assad. India’s stakes – oil, diaspora and remittances – being largely on the Arab side of the divide and its tilt towards Israel, act as constraints to actively standing up against regime change in Syria.

Therefore, India cannot be expected to ‘do more’ at this juncture. It can await fruition of the UN led peace initiative currently underway, whereupon it can participate more broadly including in any peacekeeping dimension that emerges.

However, tacitly in what Menon says, and explicitly in the words of other commentators, there is a belief that India, as part of its ‘great power’ march can, indeed must act, in the defence of what it defines as its national interest.

In regard to West Asia, a leading strategic commentator, Manoj Joshi, puts it thus: “If  our oil supply lines or  citizens working in the Gulf are threatened,  or hundreds and thousands of Indians are being radicalised by the Al Qaeda or the Islamic State, India should certainly consider intervention, with, and if it has the gumption, without, UN authorisation.”

Although Joshi’s is rather a high – almost hypothetical level – of Daesh tentacles, even so, interventionist thinking needs contesting.

The first problem is political, on the question of legitimacy. Menon appears to suggest that since traditional security providers in the region – read the US and UK – are less than effective, India must sign-up rather than continue as a free-rider.

Menon appears to justify prospective military action by saying India’s transformation depends on flow of oil. Interference in its flow would require Indian military response to defend the status quo. The argument smacks of neo-colonial logic in which oil dependency of the West requires them to back repressive Arab regimes.

Arab nationalism that has been discounted in the media fixation with the religious dimension to the Daesh challenge, has been air brushed out of the frame. This has enabled the unchallenged Western, and now Russian, military approach in West Asia. In effect, India would end up backing a status quo in favour of the mix of repressive regimes that have between them succeeded in stymieing the promise of Arab Spring.

Scope for ‘doing more’ is in pointing this out in a bid for course correction by Arab regimes in internal reform and their Western backers in shedding militarized templates. However, in having the French President over for its Republic Day, India appears instead to be painting itself into the same corner as the West.

The second reason is military. An ‘all of government’ response would be called for. The response to the terror attack on Pathankot airfield does not lend any confidence that the national security establishment can pull it off.

An external – military – consequence of India’s military proactivism could be with Islamists fetching up at the door step. The Pathankot episode suggests that the border fence, even if shored up with gadgets and tactics of Israeli provenance, cannot be relied on.

Menon discounts such a scenario, saying that the “risks of the (India-Pakistan) relationship deteriorating into open conflict are slight.” With the Daesh having already fetched up in Afghanistan, in case of India’s military involvement in the Levant it could provide a fillip to anti-India groups in Pakistan.

The internal political consequence of this would be the benefits for the right wingers in India. It would buoy majoritarian extremists who misrepresent the Islamist threat as the threat from Islam.

Therefore, any thrust for a greater role in West Asia needs to be contested. The liberal realist argumentation can be easily manipulated by cultural nationalists at the helm of national security affairs to depict an emerging consensus in favour of intervention. That an Akshay Kumar starrer Airlift is ruling at the box office suggests such a thrust.

As Menon points out elsewhere, the timing of when to make the move from a regional player to a ‘great power’ is a delicate one. Clearly now is not the right time and this is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.

*Ali Ahmed (@aliahd66) blogs at www.ali-writings.blogspot.in.

Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), speaking Tuesday at a hearing of the US House Armed Services Committee, returned to a subject he has addressed many times — the US government’s incredible waste of money and lives in Afghanistan. Providing one example to illustrate the “boondoggles” that permeate US activity in Afghanistan, Jones shed light on the six million dollars the US spent on a program involving importing “rare blonde Italian goats” to Afghanistan. The pricey goats, Jones relates, may have then just been eaten instead of being used to boost the cashmere industry in Afghanistan.

Jones, who is a Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity Advisory Board member, further states that the goats boondoggle is one among many wastes of money in Afghanistan that John F. Sopko, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, mentioned in January as a witness before a subcommittee of the US Senate Armed Services Committee. Jones expresses exasperation that the US may continue its presence, militarily and otherwise, in Afghanistan for another “20, 30, 40 years.” This costly foreign intervention, says Jones, is particularly worrisome considering the US government debt is at $19 trillion.

Watch Jones’ complete statement here:

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

According to the health authorities, two adults, a man and a woman, have fully recovered from the virus.

“Both individuals have a history of travel to a Zika affected country. These are the first cases of Zika virus infection confirmed in Ireland. Neither case is at risk of pregnancy,” the HSE said on Tuesday, as quoted by The Irish Times newspaper.

The Zika outbreak started in Brazil in spring 2015. It has since spread across Latin America, allegedly causing several deaths. The first case of the Zika virus in Europe was confirmed in Denmark in January, followed by Sweden and Germany.

At present, there is no vaccine available to treat the Zika virus that primarily affects pregnant women and fetuses by causing severe brain damage in newborns known as microcephaly.

By Abhijit Singh*

The event plans to unite regional navies, but the security environment remains fraught.

The Indian Navy is preparing to conduct its showcase event – the prestigious International Fleet Review (IFR) – at Visakhapatnam from February 4 to 8. With the first foreign ships due to make an appearance tomorrow, the excitement in India’s maritime circles is palpable. This is only the second time since 2001 that such an event has been organized in India. More significantly, it is the first international fleet review on India’s Eastern seaboard, a theater of growing interest for New Delhi.

Indian naval officers and maritime watchers, however, aren’t the only ones looking forward to the event. With an expected participation of 90 ships and 60 aircraft, and more than 30 service chiefs in attendance, international interest in the IFR is high. With days to go to the event, the organizing team had received 52 firm confirmations – a significant increase from the first international fleet review in February 2001 at Mumbai when 29 nations participated.

The IFR, however, isn’t just planned as a congregation of armed warships and aircraft. Organizers have designed the event as a multi-dimensional experience – a display of camaraderie and converging interests in a complex maritime environment. Besides the naval ships review by President Pranab Mukherjee, a nautical exhibition, a city parade, a maritime conference, an operational demonstration, and a book release function celebrating the maritime heritage of India are also planned.

The official theme of the IFR, “United through Oceans,” is also the driving inspiration for the event. By bringing a large number of warships together, the Indian Navy hopes to draw on the cooperative instinct of participants, urging them to join hands in combating common security and humanitarian threats at sea. In highlighting the utility of multilateral collaboration and interoperability, the event’s organizers hope to foster greater regional solidarity, comradeship and goodwill.

Such honorable missions, however, are easier conceived than executed. Many of the event’s participants still harbor deep suspicion of each other. China, which was excluded from Japan’s International Fleet Review at Sagami Bay a few months ago, has disputes with many of its neighbors over control of the East Asian commons. Beijing views multilateral naval exercises by its competitors as an attempt to undermine China’s maritime leverage in Asia. Its opponents, meanwhile, see Beijing’s maritime posturing and large-scale reclamation in the South China Sea as an intolerable provocation. Still, the Indian Navy is urging participants to drop their reservations and collaborate in larger regional interest. As Admiral RK Dhowan, the Indian naval chief noted at a recent press conference, “While we may be divided by geography, we must be united through the oceans.”

Building “bridges of friendship,” however, isn’t the Indian Navy’s only objective for undertaking this onerous enterprise – replete with logistical, administrative and political challenges. Indian maritime planners hope to achieve some of the more conventional objectives associated with fleet reviews. The exercise of assembling foreign warships is being regarded by many as an opportunity to display maritime might and battle-readiness. Despite downplaying the event’s strategic dimensions in public, the Indian Navy is keen to raise its Indian Ocean profile through the display of operational capability and combat assets. New Delhi wants to burnish its credentials as a net provider of regional security, a prominent theme in the Navy’s new maritime strategy released in October 2015.

The other key objective for organizing this event is to showcase indigenization. The IFR is meant to complement the “Make in India” campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship initiative for India’s internal rejuvenation. The Indian navy had originally planned to field many of its domestically manufactured assets, most significantly the ballistic missile nuclear submarine, Arihant. However, IFR organizers were forced to rethink their plans when participants conveyed their hesitation to send submarines. Instead, India’s main showcase platform will now be the INS Kadmatt – a new ASW corvette that is almost completely indigenous in design and production.

Geopolitics, however, could still play spoilsport. A few days ago, there were reports that the Indian Navy deployed P8I maritime patrol aircraft based at the strategically located Andaman and Nicobar Command to search for a suspected Chinese submarine prowling Indian waters. The submarine was reported to be a part of the Chinese 21st anti-piracy task-force in the Gulf of Aden. Around the same time, the Indian aircraft carrier, INS Vikramaditya, was headed on an official visit to Colombo – the first by an Indian aircraft carrier to Sri Lanka. The ship’s stay at Colombo came immediately after the visit of three Chinese vessels from the 21st taskforce that had earlier engaged in a naval exercise with the Pakistan Navy. Oddly enough, the same ships are now scheduled to attend the IFR at Vizag.

Meanwhile, Beijing has its own worries about India’s maritime activities in the Western Pacific – particularly its naval deployments to Vietnam and Japan. In October last year, INS Sahyadri’s participation in Japan’s international fleet review at Sagami Bay, and an earlier visit to Na Trang in Vietnam created considerable unease in Beijing. The inclusion of Japan in the Indo-U.S. bilateral naval exercise Malabar and the first India-Australia maritime exercise (AUSINDEX) in the Indian Ocean further offended Chinese sensitivities. New Delhi, however, is seized of its awkward maritime equation with China. Mindful of the mutual suspicion that exists between the two sides, the Indian Navy has invited the People’s Liberation Army Navy to attend the IFR, hoping it would lead to greater confidence and goodwill.

It isn’t as if India is being overly sensitive towards Chinese concerns. New Delhi’s spirit of inclusion even extended to Pakistan, where subtle diplomatic overtures were made to secure the participation of the Pakistan Navy. Unfortunately, bilateral ties are at a particularly fraught juncture, with neither side willing to be seen making special concessions. Islamabad’s unfavorable response then has been on expected lines.

To keep the focus away from the politics, IFR organizers are hoping to leverage a sentimental aspect of the event. The fleet review will be India’s oldest aircraft carrier, INS Viraat’s last operational tour of duty, as it prepares to retire after 29 years of yeomen service. With advancing age and high maintenance costs, the old warhorse has been having problems keeping up with the pace of modern operations. Despite many operational extensions, it gradually became clear the ship is approaching the end of its active service life. Viraat, however, will still go out with a bang. The Indian Navy has reportedly managed to put six Sea Harrier jump-jets on its deck, and ordered the INS Vikramaditya to be her companion at the IFR.

There is a popular saying about aircraft carriers: Even when they are gone they are never really forgotten. The International Fleet Review at Visakhapatnam should be the perfect stage for INS Viraat to take a final bow. Its presence alongside the INS Vikramaditya will also present New Delhi with the perfect opportunity to seize the strategic narrative in the Indian Ocean Region.

This article originally appeared in The Diplomat.

Instead of boosting growth, the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rates will contribute to domestic fiscal deterioration, regional risks, even global threats.

About a week ago, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) governor Haruhiko Kuroda said to the parliament: “We are not considering a cut in interest on bank reserves.”

True, the European Central Bank (ECB) has embraced negative interest rates. Its chief Mario Draghi has had few other options since 2011 when he promised to defend the euro “at any costs.” In contrast, Kuroda, despite his penchant to surprise the markets, emphatically ruled out negative rates.

And yet, last Friday Kuroda announced that the BOJ would impose a 0.1 percent fee – a negative interest rate – on deposits from commercial banks.

Some argue that the decision was an effort to contain the adverse impact of the resignation of Economy Minister Akira Amari, the father of Abenomics, over corruption allegations.

Nevertheless, Kuroda’s reversal shocked the financial markets. And there is worse ahead.

Massive liquidity bet

After two lost decades, Japan began a risky monetary gamble in 2012-13 when Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power. As the bold Kuroda succeeded the conservative Masaaki Shirakawa as the BOJ chief, he pledged to do “whatever it takes” to achieve the 2 percent inflation target.

The BOJ began open-ended asset buying hoping to inject US$1.4 trillion into the Japanese economy in just two years. The massive liquidity gamble went hand in hand with Prime Minister Abe’s reform agenda of renewed fiscal stimulus, aggressive monetary easing and proposed structural reforms – and participation in the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to speed up reforms at home.

Inspiringly, he initially also pushed for greater role of women in the labor markets, whereas immigration reforms linger, even though Japan’s population is aging fast and the population base is on decline.

After one year of fiscal stimulus, Abe pledged fiscal consolidation in 2014; far too early. At the time I predicted that markets would love Abenomics in 2013, but a backlash would ensue in 2014 – which is precisely what happened.
Instead of using fiscal accommodation to strengthen Japanese consumption, Abe went ahead with the consumption tax hike even though the recovery was too fragile for consolidation.

Moreover, adequate demand was further undermined by LDP’s ultra-conservative politics, which alienated social liberals; a controversial secrecy bill that reduced the privacy of ordinary Japanese; and the mitigation of Japan’s historical pacifism and the concomitant rearmament, which has contributed to rising geopolitical tensions with China.

As Abe’s politics undermined his economic goals, his approval ratings plunged and Japan slid into recession.
Deterioration of fiscal discipline

Last year saw more muddling through and, in the 4th quarter of 2015, growth amounted to 0.3 percent. While Tokyo could still achieve 1.4 percent expansion in 2016, consumption growth is subdued, wage talks are not likely to boost real wages and inflation lingers far below the target.

Japan’s notorious debt burden shows no signs of easing either. Even though sovereign debt is close to 250 percent of its GDP, the BOJ has accelerated its asset- buying program.

Today, the ECB’s balance sheet is 25 percent of the Eurozone GDP; the same as the US Fed’s level at its highest in 2014. In both Washington and Brussels, rounds of quantitative easing has resulted in divisive political debates.

In contrast, the BOJ’s balance sheet is already 80 percent of the Japanese GDP; in relative terms, more than three times higher than in the US and the Eurozone. What’s worse, it is growing by 16% annually. As a result, the BOJ must pay its rates on a far larger quantity of bank assets.

Instead of caution, Japan’s institutional investors joined the gamble over a year ago when the US$1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which controls the retirement incomes of some 67 million Japanese, said it would take more aggressive bets by reducing funds in domestic bonds while pumping up its investments in stocks. Intriguingly, while other global pension funds struggle to minimize holdings in risky assets, GPIF is boosting such investments.

Meanwhile, the BOJ has boosted its asset-buying program drastically by going far beyond what the U.S. Fed and other central banks have bought in their stimulus programs and blurring the notion of risk. Nevertheless, a sense of crisis remains absent in Tokyo.

Unlike Greek debt, Japanese debt is mainly in domestic currency. As a result, most Japanese continue to have confidence in yen. However, the arrival of negative rates suggests that this faith may prove misguided.

Elevated regional risks, elevated global threats

Domestically, negative interest rates will amplify uncertainties. First, if banks prove reluctant to sell Japanese government bonds that would undermine the BOJ’s asset purchases. Second, the BOJ’s negative rates will further reduce the profitability of the banking system, particularly the weaker and politically sensitive regional banks.

As the world’s third-largest economy, Japan’s negative rates are likely to increase downside risks internationally and will complicate the Fed’s proposed rate hikes in 2016. In Asia, central banks already have an easing bias, due to disinflation and stagnation in advanced markets.

The currency implications are a different story. When Abe came to office in fall 2012, US dollar amounted to less than 80 yen; today, it is over 120 yen. In four years, the yen has halved relative to dollar. Thanks to continued asset purchases, lingering deflation and negative rates, depreciation will continue. That is unleashing fears of new ‘currency wars’ in a region where export-led growth has historically relied on competitive currencies – particularly in nations, such as South Korea, which tend to compete in overlapping industries and with parallel strategies.

Japan’s largest export partners include the US, China, Australia, South Korea and Thailand, while its foreign investment is mainly in the US, China, UK and Singapore. Recently, all of these partners have been struggling with diminished prospects. With 0.7 percent growth in the last quarter, US recovery is slowing, while China’s slower growth and Abe’s geopolitics weighs on Japanese export growth.

Conversely, if Japan is swept by a crisis, its trade and investment partners will suffer collateral damage. That would prove particularly painful in emerging Asia that is most exposed to Japanese aid, including Myanmar, Vietnam and the Philippines.

Despite rising downside risks, domestic opposition is powerless in Japan, due to LDP’s recent electoral consolidation. Externally, Washington is unlikely to intervene because it needs Tokyo for its geopolitical pivot in Asia. Consequently, Japan’s fiscal and monetary deterioration is likely to continue, even though adverse spillovers may spread regionally, even globally.

Source: DifferenceGroup.net. A shorter version of this commentary was published by Shanghai Daily on February 2, 2015

By Lisa Ferdinando

Coalition efforts against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant are making a significant impact against the terrorists, the spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve said today.

In a live video conference from Baghdad, Army Col. Steve Warren told Pentagon reporters the operations are “hurting this enemy.” ISIL is feeling the pressure, he said.

“We have decimated their ranks and shaken their leadership,” he said.

ISIL has increased its forced conscription throughout Iraq and Syria, indicating that “voluntary recruitment is no longer sufficient to meet their needs,” Warren said.

“We’ve hit their finances, both cash and oil. We’ve shrunk their so-called caliphate. We’ve disrupted their lines of communication,” the colonel said.

There are increased reports of desertion among the terrorists, he said, and ISIL is executing its fighters fleeing the battlefield.

Three-hundred ISIL targets were destroyed or damaged from Jan. 26 to Feb 1, according to CJTF-OIR officials.

Progress by Iraqi and Coalition Forces

Iraqi security forces continue clearance operations in the suburbs east of Ramadi, Warren said. The ISF is moving from Lake Tharthar toward Fallujah, he said.

Coalition forces have supported Iraqi forces in the lower Euphrates River valley with dozens of airstrikes over the past several days, Warren said.

Iraqi security forces repelled an ISIL attack near the al-Fatah Bridge, north of Beiji, over the weekend, killing more than a dozen ISIL fighters, Warren said.

The Iraqi air force has been active in this area, conducting effective strikes against ISIL in the Makhoul Mountains, he said.

Members of the Iraqi air force “have been the heroes near [Beiji] and Tikrit, helping ISF thwart ISIL attacks in the area,” Warren said in a Tweet today.

‘Terrible Tragedy’ in Syria

Along the Mara line, Syrian opposition forces, supported by “devastating” coalition air power, liberated a Syrian village from ISIL on Jan. 30, according to Warren.

“Fighting along the Mara line continues with both forces conducting offensive operations,” he said.

The situation in Syria is a “terrible tragedy” with immense suffering among the population from the brutality of the war, he said.

Warren noted that the purpose of CJTF-OIR is to defeat ISIL, but the U.S. military would support humanitarian relief efforts if asked.

Ammon Bundy and 15 others involved in the armed occupation of Malheur National Wildlife Refuge near Burns, Oregon were indicted Wednesday, prosecutors told reporters. Defense attorneys claim their clients were exercising non-violent civil disobedience.

The indictment remains sealed, though Assistant US Attorney Geoff Barrow said it would be released within 24 hours. Defense lawyers sought to have it released immediately, but US Magistrate Judge Janice Stewart denied their request.

Few details related to the indictment are known, but at least 11 of the people charged were arrested last week on charges of felony conspiracy. They are Ammon Bundy, Ryan Bundy, Ryan Payne, Brian Cavalier, Shawna Cox, Joseph O’Shaughnessy, Pete Santilli, Jason Patrick, Duane Ehmer, Dylan Anderson, and Jon Ritzheimer.

They are accused of using intimidation to keep authorities out of the refuge. Their arraignment has been set for February 24.

The charges stem from the seizure of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge on January 2. The protesters, who came to be known as Citizens for Constitutional Freedom, demanded the exoneration and release of imprisoned father-and-son ranchers Dwight and Steven Hammond, who had been re-sentenced after their time served for arson charges was deemed unlawfully short. The Hammonds distanced themselves from the armed supporters though, turning themselves in to federal authorities.

Before a charge can become an indictment, it is simply a criminal complaint by police. At that stage, defendants get a preliminary hearing where they can question the arresting officer under oath as long as the questions pertain to probable cause for the arrest. However, in the matter of the Oregon occupiers, Judge Stewart canceled the scheduled preliminary hearings, citing the indictment delivered by prosecutors. The defense has yet to see the indictment.

“That’s an unusual thing and it’s unfortunate in a case like this, where many of the people distrust the government to begin with,” Lisa Hay, defense attorney for Ryan Payne, told the Associated Press.

Hay also suspects the federal government of having told the US Marshals Service ahead of any indictment not to bring defendants to court.

“It makes a mockery of the grand jury process to alert marshals ahead of time,” Hay told The Oregonian.

Defense attorney Mike Arnold asked the court to make sure his client, Ammon Bundy, would always be in court during hearings. Another defense lawyer, Amy Baggio, who is defending Joseph O’Shaughnessy, told the court it didn’t have the right to withhold the indictment per Rule 6 of the federal rules of criminal procedure, according to The Oregonian.

By Abdul Hannan Tago

An international conference on “Mercy in Islam” will take place in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh on Sunday. Top scholars from 27 Muslim countries will participate.

Riyadh Gov. Prince Faisal bin Bandar will open the event organized by the Islamic Studies Department of the Faculty of Education at King Saud University.

According to the chairman of the organizing committee, Prince Saud bin Salman bin Mohammed Al-Saud, the event aims to highlight the meaning and purpose of mercy in Islam. It will also emphasize the contribution and objectives of religious duties in the lives of believers.

“It also seeks to underline compassion as a way of dealing with others based on the Holy Qur’an and Sunnah guidelines. It will also shed light on aspects of compassion in the life of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him),” the prince said.

He adds: “The event will monitor the practical applications of mercy in the aspects of Islamic legislation, especially at this moment of time, to educate people on the very principles of Islam while enemies of Islam relentlessly criticize the Islamic nation in general, and Saudi Arabia in particular. They portray Islam and Muslims with the ugliest images,” he observed.

Scientific committees have approved 135 research papers out of 560 submitted which contain a variety of specialties from all disciplines of law and humanities from 27 states, representing educational institutions in the Muslim world involved in Dawah, universities’ academic departments, ministries of Islamic affairs, media organizations and specialized channels.

Activities of the event will include presentations by researchers during which the audience can raise questions or interact with experts.

There will also be an exhibition, scientific workshops and panel discussions on how to raise Muslims and students in compassion, and mechanisms of activating compassion within communities.

A US drone has crashed near Turkey’s Incirlik air base with officials blaming a mechanical failure for the incident.

Turkish media said on Wednesday that the US Predator drone crashed on a field south of the country after leaving the Incirlik base.

A spokeswoman for the United States Air Forces in Europe said an investigation has been launched into the cause of the crash.

Captain Lauren Ott, who is based at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, would not elaborate on the mission of the drone, but said mechanical failure may have caused the incident.

Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency cited a witness as saying that he heard a large explosion after an object with flashing lights crashed into a field.

Police reportedly cordoned off the crash site, which officials said was simply an unpopulated area in southern Turkey, while inspections continued on the wreckage.

Incirlik is where the US has stationed its warplanes to launch attacks on purported positions of Daesh operating in Iraq and Syria.

Many in Turkey have criticized the government for allowing the US and allies to use Incirlik for an overt mission in the two Arab countries, saying the airstrikes could cost Turkey dearly in the future.

Not only is Greenland’s melting ice sheet adding huge amounts of water to the oceans, it could also be unleashing 400,000 metric tons of phosphorus every year – as much as the mighty Mississippi River releases into the Gulf of Mexico, according to a new study. Phosphorus is a key nutrient that could, if it reaches the open ocean, enrich waters of the Arctic Ocean, potentially stimulating growth of the marine food chain, the study’s authors said.

Phosphorus is an essential nutrient that feeds plankton at the base of the ocean food web. Glacial meltwater has long been known to contain phosphorus, but now new research shows that as the Greenland ice sheet melts it could be releasing far more of the nutrient than previously thought, reports Jon Hawkings, a Cabot Institute researcher at the Bristol Glaciology Centre at the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom.

Hawkings and his collaborators spent three months in 2012 and 2013 gathering water samples and measuring the flow of water from the 600-square-kilometer (230-square-mile) Leverett Glacier and the smaller, 36-square-kilometer (14-square-mile) Kiattuut Sermiat Glacier in Greenland as part of a Natural Environment Research Council-funded project to understand how much phosphorus, in various forms, was escaping from the ice sheet over time and draining into the sea. They then used that data to extrapolate how much phosphorus was likely being released from the entire Greenland ice sheet.

They found greater amounts of phosphorus in the waters of the Leverett Glacier than had been detected at previous study sites, which have looked mostly at smaller glaciers. The large Leverett Glacier, however, is more representative of the glaciers that contribute the bulk of meltwater coming from the Greenland ice sheet, said Hawkings.

“We find annual phosphorus input (for all of Greenland’s outlet glaciers) are at least equal to some of the world’s largest rivers, such as the Mississippi and the Amazon,” Hawkings and his colleagues report in a new study accepted for publication in Global Biogeochemical Cycles, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. That amount could increase as the climate warms and more ice melts, according to the study’s authors.

It is not clear yet how much of the phosphorus being released from the ice sheet is reaching the open ocean, but if a large amount of phosphorus coming off the glacier makes it to the sea, the nutrient could rev up biological activity of Arctic waters, according to the study’s authors. The nutrient could stimulate growth of plankton at the base of the ocean food web that could impact birds, fish and marine mammals higher up the food chain. The research also suggests ice sheet-derived phosphorus could eventually reach the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, which are connected to the Arctic Ocean.

Unleashing nutrients

Oceanographers have historically thought of glaciers and ice sheets as frozen systems that don’t add nutrients or water to the oceans, Hawkings explained. Research over the past couple of decades has shown there is flowing water at the base of glaciers. As climate change warms Greenland and more ice melts and makes its way into the sea, the ice sheet is potentially becoming a more important source of nutrients, he said.

Glacial meltwater gains phosphorus when it travels in moulins, or “pipes” through the ice – through the guts of the glacier and down to the where the ice meets the bedrock. Where the ice meets the bedrock at the very bottom of the glacier, the meltwater is exposed to phosphorus-rich rocks that are pulverized by the moving glacier.

“Glaciers are very, very good at crushing up rock,” said Hawkings.

The concentrations of dissolved phosphate the researchers found in the Leverett Glacier meltwater – which is just one form of phosphorus found in the meltwater – were similar to concentrations found in Arctic rivers, and among the highest levels recorded in glacial meltwaters worldwide. The total phosphorus concentrations found in the meltwater of the Leverett Glacier – which includes phosphorus-rich particles – was 10 times greater than concentrations found in Arctic river waters.

If the majority of the phosphorus found in meltwater from all of Greenland’s glaciers reaches the sea, it would be equal to about 400,000 metric tons (440,000 U.S. tons) per year of phosphorus, more than Arctic rivers are estimated to contribute to the Arctic Ocean, according to the new study. However, how much phosphorus makes it from the meltwater into the open oceans is not yet known. The largest portion of phosphorus, which is in the form of powdered rock minerals, could be settling out of the meltwater and end up buried in Greenland’s fjords before it has time to dissolve, Hawkings said.

“This is an important finding because it highlights the role that the rapidly changing Greenland ice sheet plays in supplying nutrients to the Arctic Ocean,” observed Eran Hood of the University of Alaska Southeast in Juneau, who studies the meltwater from coastal glaciers in Alaska, and was not involved in the new study.

“Now we need to understand how much of this phosphorus, especially in the particulate, ends up being utilized in high-latitude marine ecosystems form,” said Hood. “I think that’s an important open question.”

By Arzu Geybullayeva*

Despite all the show and the glamor of the European Games, 2015 went down as one of the most challenging years full of disappointment and resentment for the people of Azerbaijan. Leaving behind 2014’s problems with arrested journalists and the silencing of civil society, there was much hope that the year 2015, and the first European Games, would see some progress on the human rights and freedom of expression front– the country’s two most problematic and highly criticized features. However, little did the Azerbaijanis know what their government had in store for 2015. Between the increasing government crackdowns on civil society and human rights, and the effects of the plummeting oil prices, 2015 ended up being one of the most difficult ones in Azerbaijan’s modern history.

The year kicked off with the sentencing of Azerbaijani journalist Seymur Hazi to five years in prison on “aggravated hooliganism” charges. Then in February (2015) we saw the Azerbaijani Manat devalue after years of being pegged to the dollar and relying heavily on oil exports. Overnight, the currency lost 33% of its value against both the US dollar and the Euro. Naturally people became concerned over their savings and loans. Price hikes on foodstuffs added to the people’s frustration. The president Ilham Aliyev, however, played it very calm and smooth; he even said to the public that the Manat was stronger than ever.

In the meantime, despite the currency devaluation, preparations for hosting the inaugural European Games continued. Afterall these were the first ever Euro-Olympics for which Azerbaijan was the only bidder as no one else had the interest or the financial resources to host the event. While the Azerbaijani authorities failed to disclose full transparency reports they cited a figure of 1 billion Manats ( approx. $1.2 billion), independent reports estimated the total cost of the games (which included all expenses paid trips for the 6000 athletes competing in the games) at 6-8 billion Manats (approx. $8+ billion).

In March 2015, President Aliyev signed one of the annual presidential pardons, which saw the release of four political prisoners– Bashir Suleymanli, Orkhan Eyyubzade, Anar Gasimli, and Ramil Valiyev. However, the revolving door tradition for political prisoners in Azerbaijan continued to move in its usual fashion. In April 2015, Intigam Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s prominent human rights lawyer, landed in jail on a 7.6-year sentence. Also in April, another prominent human rights activist Rasul Jafarov was sentenced to 6.5 years in jail (Jafarov’s sentence was reduced to 6.3 years in June just two days before the one year anniversary of his arrest).

In May, just a month before the games were scheduled to kick off, a fire in Baku killed 15 while injuring more than 50 residents. The main cause of the fire was the poor quality external coverings used on the facades of many of the residential as well as commercial buildings across the country as part of the government’s beautification project for the Euro-Olympics. While many Baku residents expected the immediate resignations of some of the capital’s chief politicians, including the Baku mayor himself, the city officials did not budge. No one resigned or took responsibility, with the exception of few middlemen. The authorities walked away choosing to cover up the matter given that the games were about to begin in few weeks time and no public commotions over the matter were to be tolerated.

The European games came and went, and so the two weeks of major inconveniences were over for the residents of Baku and its 65 administrative districts. After all, the list of government-imposed restrictions was grand and ranged from a ban on hanging clothes on the balconies to not allowing district cars to enter the city out of fear that foreign guests might see the worn out cars (and of course to keep the cars from causing traffic).

And given the successful crackdown on independent civil society organizations which were actively engaged in raising international awareness on the ongoing human rights and freedom of expression troubles during the Eurovision song contest, there was no one left to advocate this time on behalf of 80-plus political prisoners and the deteriorating living conditions in Azerbaijan.

But the most memorable moments of the European Games were not the grand opening and the finale but the fake euphoria built around it. The faux euphoria was skillfully picked apart by international media which exposed the crackdown, the stories of political prisoners, and the hidden truth beneath all the glitz and glamor. Even a fake British tourist couldn’t help not rescue the country’s already poor image. (The individual turned out to be an Azrebaijani young man pretending to be a visitor from Great Britain who went out of his way to say nice things about Azerbaijan to visiting journalists.)

Shortly after the games the trials of the most prominent imprisoned civil society activists began. On August 13, veteran civil society activists, Leyla and Arif Yunus, were sentenced to 8.5 and 7 years in prison, respectively. Just four days before that, a young journalist Rasim Aliyev died following the injuries sustained from a brutal beating. The relatives of a soccer player, Javid Huseynov, sought revenge on the journalist who had put up a post on Facebook criticizing the player’s on-field attitude.

Also in August, a young man was reported dead outside of the police headquarters in town of Mingachevir. While the police said that the young man committed suicide by jumping out of the window, friends and relatives suspected he was tortured and later killed to hide the evidence of his heavily sustained body injuries. Unhappy with the response of the local police chief, the residents took to the streets. As a result 22 men were detained out of which 16 received administrative detention while the police chief was reprimanded.

On September 1st, Azerbaijan’s internationally renowned investigative reporter, Khadija Ismayil was sentenced to 7.6 years in prison on bogus charges of tax evasion, abuse of power, and illegal entrepreneurship. Ismayil was arrested in December 2014 on charges of inciting a man to attempt suicide. A wave of criticism from the international community ridiculed the charge and criticized the arrest of Ismayil. Shortly after, Ismayil was charged with a series of new criminal offences, the usual allegations frequently used against many other prominent men and women working in the field of human rights in Azerbaijan. Although Ismayil’s innocence was proven on each charge, the presiding judge dismissed the evidence when sentencing her.

In October, the minister of National Security, Eldar Mahmudov, was sacked together with 250 other employees. On top of this, a former general was arrested along with 20 other high-ranking officials from within the ministry. Because of this the ministry was shuttered and replaced by two new security organizations: an external investigation bureau and internal national security service. The scandal at the ministry was followed by contested parliamentary elections, which took place on November 1, 2015. For the first time in the election history of independent Azerbaijan the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE ODIHR) did not send an observer mission following disagreement over the number of international observers it was allowed to send to Azerbaijan. Earlier in 2015 the OSCE country mission was downgraded. The opposition boycotted the election while electoral violations were reported extensively on social media.

Some good news followed shortly after the elections when Arif Yunus was conditionally released from prison due to his deteriorating health while in prison. Another first in the country’s modern history was a security operation that was carried out in Baku’s village of Nardaran (a traditional Shi’a stronghold) resulting in deaths of six people, two of whom were police officers. Over 70 residents were arrested including a renowned theologian Taleh Bagirov. In protest, residents took to the streets, burning tires and demanding the release of their family members, as well as information on their whereabouts. In response to these uprisings riot police entered the village and surrounded all entrance and exit points. The  police takeover of the village lasted three days. Only on January 22, 2016 all arrested residents, with an exception of Taleh Bagirzade and 14 others who are currently facing criminal charges including treason, were released.

The last month of the year saw another tragedy in Azerbaijan. A fire erupted on one of Baku’s oil platforms on the Caspian Sea–killing seven workers. Twenty-nine workers went missing, and while the bodies of six were found over the next week, the rest of the Guneshli platform workers are still missing. As is becoming a custom, none of the officials took responsibility or the blame for this tragic incident.

The authorities continued to take no responsibility when the Manat devalued for a second time forcing the country’s ruling government to shift to floating exchange rates, devaluing itt by almost 100%. Despite the initial government reassurances, which were in place following the first devaluation earlier in the year, officials began to use a new narrative, claiming that the currency devaluation was a natural result of the falling global oil prices. In Azerbaijan, the consequences have been devastating so far. Currency exchange points have closed down, commodity prices have increased, and residents have been left helpless trying to figure out how to survive the stagnating economy.

Lastly, on December 28, 2015 veteran journalist Rauf Mirkadirov was sentenced to 6 years in jail.  And by the end of the year none of the political prisoners’ names made it to the pardoning decree signed by the president.

Looking ahead, there is little hope for any substantial positive changes in Azerbaijan in the short-term. 2016 has already begun with a wave of protests shaking the country’s leadership so much that the talk of economic reform is becoming a heated topic of discussion at each governmental level. The reality is stark: the country is far behind in implementing any reforms, which it should have undertaken some fifteen years ago. The lack of planning, soaring corruption, thriving monopolies, and self-serving leadership styles have left the country unprepared for a crisis that was bound to hit this energy-dependent country eventually. This devastating economic downturn comes despite the fact that both at home and abroad Azerbaijan’s leadership was reminded over and over again, that its economy had to diversify. Azerbaijan is now paying a high price for not listening and turning the other way.

The worst part is still ahead, this is only the beginning of Azerbaijan’s financial crisis. Azerbaijan has already requested assistance from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Some in Azerbaijan see this as an opportunity to reform and drive positive change, but it is hard to tell whether the drastic change Azerbaijan needs is possible in the near future.

About the author:
*Arzu Geybullayeva is an Associate Scholar at the Project on Democratic Transitions. Based in Istanbul, Turkey, Arzu holds a Master’s in Global Politics from London School of Economics and Political Science and serves as managing editor and co-director of Imagine Center for Conflict Transformation.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Not only is the “Jupiter as shield” concept, implying that the planet shields Earth from comet impacts, not true, but perhaps Jupiter’s most important role in fostering the development of life on Earth was just the opposite — delivering the volatile materials from the outer Solar System needed for life to form. This new simulation study, and the previously underestimated role that Saturn may have also played in the evolution of life on Earth, are presented in an original research article published in Astrobiology, a peer-reviewed journal from Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., publishers.

In “Jupiter: Cosmic Jekyll and Hyde”, Kevin Grazier, PhD, at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, describes the study in which he simulated the evolution of tens of thousands of particles in the gaps between the jovian planets for up to 100 million years. Based on the results, Dr. Grazier concludes that the widely reported shield role attributed to Jupiter is incorrect. The simulations showed that Jupiter teams with Saturn to kick a significant fraction of the particles into the inner Solar System and into orbits that cross Earth’s path. He proposes that a Solar System with one or more planets similar to Jupiter located beyond the region of potential terrestrial planets is beneficial for the development of life.

“In an unprecedented effort to solve the riddle as to whether jovian bodies shield habitable planets from impacts catastrophic to life, Dr. Grazier presents a modeling study that speaks to the incredible complexity of planetisimal evolution in the Solar System,” says Sherry L. Cady, PhD, Editor-in-Chief of Astrobiology and a Chief Scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. “In this paper, we learn that the overly simplistic ‘Jupiter as shield’ concept is a thing of the past, and future research in this area will require the continued use of the kinds of robust simulation strategies so effectively employed in Dr. Grazier’s work.”

Numerous archaeological monuments of the early Iron Age in Nakhchivan, a province of the Republic of Azerbaijan, have an indispensable contribution towards shedding more light on the cultural, archaeological and agricultural developments that have taken place throughout various centuries before and after Christ, in the outskirts of Europe.

Archaeological assents and sites located within the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan; require a highly detailed attention by international scholars who dedicate much of their time to the study of archaeological artifacts, trends of ancient architecture and analyze valuable objects throughout Europe and Asia. Archaeological sites such as Ilikligaya, Ilikligaya Monument, Irinchoy Ancient Site and the Sanctuary of Iydali Piri in Kangarli region, are unique archaeological sites that ought to receive a greater attention by international scholars who dedicate most of their research to the study of pre-historic archaeology, ancient European history and conduct expanded global research focused on the discovery of new clues that pertain to European civilization as well as to one of the world’s ancient tribes that were indigenous to the territories of Azerbaijan and have been living for centuries in the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan.

Ilikligaya Necropolis is an archaeological monument located in the South East part of Tivi Village in Ordubad Region. Over many years during the harvesting season the landscape of this ancient Necropolis has been destroyed, however local scientists have found an immense collection of archaeological items that were used during the last Bronze and early Iron ages. The ceramic artifacts speak volumes about the importance that Ilikligaya has played in the region’s ancient trade and agricultural inventions. Some of the items discovered are: pitcher, cup, tea pots, dishes, differently shaped vases; agricultural tools, remnants of horse caravans, pieces of vases and clay dishes that were perfectly burned in grey color. Based on the discoveries over the last two decades, the items found take this settlement back to the end of II and beginning of I Millennium BC.

Another ancient monument is the Irinchoy settlement, an archaeological site that covers two high hills, including their slopes, in the South East parts of Shahbulag Village, in the region of Sharur. It has a territory that spans over 1,500 square meters, Irinchoy is home to many archaeological materials and sources that make Sharur (one of the regions of Nakhchivan) a location with enormous significance in the study of late Middle Ages at a global scale. The brick structures that were explored recently with a stone foundation maintain special characteristics for the region and they require a more detailed investigation that could help expand on the importance that Irinchoy embodies.

This settlement was built by large stone walls. Within the ruins local archaeologists have found unique ceramic items that were burned in pink color and consist of clay plates and other shapes. According to local sources the structures of the settlement are built by big stones and preserve a distinguished style of architecture. The discovered ceramic products burnt in pink color consist of tableware pieces that are irregularly shaped. The ceramic products found in the area are a characteristic of the Late Middle Ages.

Babek region is another significant location where International Scholars could find significant responses to many unanswered questions. Babek is host of the Ishiglar Settlement which has been built in the Middle Ages, at the North East side of Jahri Village, with a territory that spans over 46,000 square meters. In the center of this settlement is located the “Khartanli Spring”. Jahri village still has the remnants of creeks called “aryks” that come from Janichay; their water was used earlier for agriculture and farming purposes. The thickness of its cultural layer is visible and has been a point of attraction to many international scholars who study the archaeological parks of Eurasian landmass.
In some places the thickness of the walls in this monument is three to five meters. On other sections the walls have square shaped holes and remnants of old architecture can be appreciated until today. A large part of this settlement (about 16,000 m2) has been covered by ash layers. Pottery and clay artifacts are discovered over the ash layers. Ishiglar has been included in the Nahajir Middle Age settlement. Based on the current observations the ash layers (heaps) have been caused by the pottery activity in the area. According to the archaeological sources, Ishiglar Settlement has taken shape during the III-XVII centuries.

The artifacts discovered in this settlement could be separated into two periods. Discoveries of the first period consist of pieces and platters burnt in grey, black and pink colors. They belong to the Early Middle ages. The cultural materials that can still be observed today belong to a later period of the Middle Ages. Such objects were mostly baked in pink color and designed with renowned geometric and natural ornaments. During the designing process such items (plates and other artifacts) were covered with limpid and non-limpid glaze. The necropolis of this settlement is located on a lower hill that is located south of the center. Due to atmospheric intrusion, most of the Muslim graves have been destroyed. Moreover, the name of this settlement has been linked to an old Turkish tribe.

Shakhtakhti Village, in the region of Kangarli, has a noteworthy sanctuary named Iydali Piri, a strategic location of the Middle Ages. This sanctuary is situated in the natural hollow of a rock (cave). Around it were built rock pieces in a square shape. In some places the height of the walls reaches 50-60 cm. and in other sections there exist remnants of rocky structures that have been repaired over time. Iydali Piri is a very popular place, constantly visited by locals and has deep roots in the religious history of Nakhchivan. Visitors will find a water spring around the sanctuary. Additionally there are traces of the walls around the sanctuary. Over the years, Ceramic artifacts have been found; they date back in the Classical and Middle Ages. Iydali Piri embodies the deeply rooted significance of water and fire, mythological beliefs of the Azerbaijani People. This sanctuary is thought to have been built approximately on the II-I Centuries BC.

Nakhchivan is a treasure of world archaeology, its cultural monuments, religious sites and ancient archaeological riches have transformed the birthplace of Heydar Aliyev into a highly valued location that carries a special contribution in the world’s ancient and medieval history.

NOAA scientists have released the first multispecies assessment of just how vulnerable U.S. marine fish and invertebrate species are to the effects of climate change.

The study examined 82 species that occur off the Northeastern U.S., where ocean warming is occurring rapidly. Researchers found that most species evaluated will be affected, and that some are likely to be more resilient to changing ocean conditions than others. The study appears in PLOS ONE, an online scholarly science journal.

“Our method identifies specific attributes that influence marine fish and invertebrate resilience to the effects of a warming ocean and characterizes risks posed to individual species,” said Jon Hare, a fisheries oceanographer at NOAA Fisheries’ Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) and lead author of the study. “This work will help us better account for the effects of warming waters on our fishery species in stock assessments and when developing fishery management measures.”

The study is formally known as the Northeast Climate Vulnerability Assessment and is the first in a series of similar evaluations planned for fishery species in other U.S. regions. Conducting climate change vulnerability assessments of U.S. fisheries is a priority action in the NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy. Similar assessments are now underway for the Bering Sea and California Current Ecosystems.

The 82 Northeast species evaluated include all commercially managed marine fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast, a large number of recreational marine fish species, all marine fish species listed or under consideration for listing on the federal Endangered Species Act, and a range of ecologically important marine species.

Researchers from NOAA Fisheries and NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)’s Earth System Research Laboratory, along with colleagues at the University of Colorado’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), worked together on the project. NOAA OAR and CIRES scientists provided climate model predictions of how conditions in the region’s marine environment are predicted to change in the 21st century. The method for assessing vulnerability was adapted for marine species from similar work by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to characterize the vulnerability of wildlife species to climate change.

The method tends to categorize species that are “generalists” as less vulnerable to climate change than are those that are “specialists.” For example, Atlantic cod and yellowtail flounder are more generalists, since they can use a variety of prey and habitat, and are ranked as only moderately vulnerable to climate change. The Atlantic sea scallop is more of a specialist, with limited mobility and high sensitivity to the ocean acidification that will be more pronounced as water temperatures warm. Sea scallops have a high vulnerability ranking.

The method also evaluates the potential for shifts in distribution and stock productivity, and estimates whether climate change effects will be more negative or more positive for a particular species.

“Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species by combining expert opinion with what we know about that species, in terms of the quantity and the quality of data,” Hare said. “This assessment helps us evaluate the relative sensitivity of a species to the effects of climate change. It does not, however, provide a way to estimate the pace, scale or magnitude of change at the species level.”

Researchers used existing information on climate and ocean conditions, species distributions, and life history characteristics to estimate each species’ overall vulnerability to climate-related changes in the region. Vulnerability is defined as the risk of change in abundance or productivity resulting from climate change and variability, with relative rankings based on a combination of a species exposure to climate change and a species’ sensitivity to climate change.

Each species was evaluated and ranked in one of four vulnerability categories: low, moderate, high, and very high. Animals that migrate between fresh and salt water (such as sturgeon and salmon), and those that live on the ocean bottom (such as scallops, lobsters and clams) are the most vulnerable to climate effects in the region. Species that live nearer to the water’s surface (such as herring and mackerel) are the least vulnerable. A majority of species also are likely to change their distribution in response to climate change. Numerous distribution shifts have already been documented, and this study demonstrates that widespread distribution shifts are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

A specific summary of results has been prepared for each species to help put the rankings into context. These narratives discuss what is known about the effects of climate change on the species and provide the foundation for future research.