By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

The 2.6-million-word Chilcot report, which was in the making for seven years, did not include one accusation of criminality against Britain’s then-Prime Minister Tony Blair with regard to the Iraq war.

It did not even view his decision to wage the war as illegal. It did not ask to hold him accountable or investigate him. Blair was cleared of having lied to parliament. He did not apologize for the war, only for errors related to it.

Unfortunately, what is translated and published in Arabic is a mixture of hypocrisy and ignorance.

With all due respect to my newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, which is usually known for its thoroughness and professionalism, it relied on a statement by the trivial Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) and made it a headline: “Blair should be held accountable.”

I was expecting the report to be harsh because the war was a total failure. It blamed Blair for not using all peaceful means before resorting to war, meaning it did not disapprove of his decision, but just said he was not patient enough.

Regarding the support he provided to then-US President George W Bush, we have to understand the special relationship between their two countries. Any British prime minister, whatever party he is affiliated to, cannot abandon that relationship, especially during crises, because it represents the greatest value to Britain internationally.

The war was a political act before being a military one. Bad wars are just the ones you lose. The objections to the war on Iraq to liberate Kuwait in 1990 were greater than those in 2003. If the United States had lost the first war, everyone would have said it was a wrong decision, but it is described today as political and military success. Wars are not correct or wrong; they are triumphs or defeats.

The Americans won the war in 2003 so easily that everybody was surprised. They were misled by this easy victory, to the point that they underestimated the difficulty of post-war crisis management. Washington failed to achieve its primary objective, which was the establishment of a stable ally system representing a political model for the Middle East.

The countries of the region dealt differently with the crisis. Most considered Washington’s intervention a threat. The Syrian regime was afraid of being next on the list, so it took over management of the Iraqi resistance and made it easy for Al-Qaeda to operate in Iraq via Syria.

The Arab media started cheering for Al-Qaeda and the armed opposition, thus helping Iran and the Syrian regime.

Tehran took advantage of Saudi Arabia’s failure to cooperate with the Americans by cooperating with US intelligence. This altered the regional situation. The failure of Gulf states and Egypt to intervene and cooperate caused governmental disorder in Baghdad and the political rise of Shiite extremism, about which I have written in the past.

All attempts to establish a centralized system via popular votes have failed. Instead of engaging in elections, ignorant people fought against them, wasting their constitutional rights and their voice in parliament. They are still suffering from the consequences of this.

Arabs celebrating the Chilcot report do not understand the western accountability system, and want to use it to blame others for their failures. Instead of having an objective interpretation, they resort to blame and revenge — these have been the two rooted qualities in Arab culture for the last 14 centuries.

By Irina Slav

In an industry where anything could happen, surprises—often unwelcomed—are hard to come by. Oil is exactly such an industry at the moment. No one is sure where oil is heading, near-tem forecasts range from $20 to $80 per barrel by the end of the year, and there are just too many wild cards on the scene.

So, in a sense, the news that shale producers are launching more drilling rigs is not really news at all. It was expected, the companies themselves said they are ready to start ramping-up production as soon as prices reach some more reasonable level. What’s new, perhaps, is Morgan Stanley’s warning that production from the new wells being drilled could prompt a reversal of forecasts that U.S. crude production is falling and will continue to fall.

Morgan Stanley commodity strategist Adam Longson, who led the team that researched the situation, said that this reversal carries a downside risk for oil prices. According to Longson’s team, “The rig count in the highest initial production counties of the Permian Midland continues to march higher and is not far from its 2015 peak.” That’s impressive on its own, but the other thing that’s new is where all these new rigs are concentrated: in high-yield fields. This means that the ramp-up could be pretty significant.

As Forbes author Art Berman wittily notes, rigs don’t produce oil, wells produce oil. What’s more, even a decline in the rig count does not necessarily signal a respective decline in output. On the contrary, as a Baker Hughes figure shows, while rigs have been in steady and sharp decline since 2014, the number of wells continued to climb throughout the period to February 2016.

Things may have stalled for a bit after prices tanked below $30, but now that they have recovered, shale boomers are eager to start pumping more. And prices, of course, reacted to drop well below that dream price level of $50. It wasn’t just the rig count that drove them down; to be fair, Brexit had a central role, but that doesn’t negate the effect of the higher rig count.

Oil producers in the shale patch are aware that they are walking a very fine line. Yet, they don’t really have a lot of options. Talk about rising drilling efficiency and official data that supports it doesn’t pay down debt, and this is what shale boomers have in abundance.

What they don’t have is space for maneuvering as lenders tighten credit. Basically, they can’t continue to curb production, but they must be very careful by how much they increase it. It’s a precarious situation. All that shale boomers can do is continue to work on efficiency and hope that the Brexit fallout subsides quickly.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Morgan-Stanley-Warns-That-Rising-Rig-Count-Could-Undo-The-Rally.html

The US Labor Department reported that the economy added 287,000 jobs in June, a sharp bounce back from the 11,000 jobs now reported for May. A big factor in the reversal was the end of the Verizon strike, which subtracted 37,000 jobs from the May growth number and added the same amount in June, but even adjusting for this effect, the June growth figure is much stronger.

The job gains were widely spread across sectors. Health care added 38,500 jobs, roughly the same as its 40,100 average over the last year. Retail added 29,900, while the government sector added 22,000, with 17,000 at the local government level. Manufacturing added 14,000 jobs with 13,000 of these in food manufacturing. Food manufacturing has added more than 50,000 jobs over the last two years, with employment levels now 2.7 percent above the pre-recession peak. Arts and entertainment added 27,200 jobs, but this was largely just a reversal of a reported drop of 13,600 jobs in May.

Construction was flat, and mining lost another 6,400 jobs in June. Employment in the sector is down by 211,300 (24.8 percent) from its peak in September of 2014.

Trucking lost 6,300 jobs, its fifth consecutive month of job loss. Interestingly, warehousing and storage added 4,700 jobs in June. Employment in the sector is now more than 180,000 (27.2 percent) above its pre-recession peak. It’s not clear if any of this growth could be a trade-off for trucking jobs. Non-supervisory workers in warehousing average $15.82 an hour compared with $21.21 in the trucking industry.

The average hourly wage is 2.6 percent above its year-ago level. In the last three months, it has risen at a 2.7 percent annual rate compared with its level for the prior three months. While there has been some acceleration in wage growth by this measure, the Employment Cost Index shows no upward trend whatsoever. Clearly compensation is being shifted in part from benefits, most importantly health care, into wages. It is important not to mistake this shift for an increase in labor costs.

The household survey showed a bleaker picture. The unemployment rate rose modestly to 4.9 percent. The employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) fell to 59.6 percent as employment measured by the household survey increased by just 67,000. Employment in the household survey is still more than 200,000 below its March level.

By demographic group, the most disturbing item is the reported rise in the unemployment rate among black teens to 31.2 percent. It had been 23.3 percent in February. These data are highly erratic, but the trend is large enough that it could reflect a substantial deterioration in the labor market.

Employment patterns by education are showing an interesting pattern in this recovery. Over the last year the unemployment rate for college grads has not changed while their EPOP is down by 0.3 percentage points. By contrast, the unemployment rate for those with a high school degree has fallen by 0.4 percentage points and by 0.6 percentage points for those with less than a high school degree. Their EPOPs have risen by 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively. The increased demand for skills is not obvious in this picture.

Other aspects of the household survey were mixed. There was a drop of 587,000 in the number of people working involuntarily part-time, which more than reversed a sharp rise reported for May. The number of discouraged workers is more than 150,000 below its year-ago level and not too far above pre-recession levels. The duration measures of unemployment were mixed. The median duration of unemployment spells fell slightly to 10.3 weeks, a new low for the recovery, but both the average duration and share of long-term unemployed rose slightly.

The percentage of unemployment due to voluntary quits remained constant at 10.7 percent. This is near the high for the recovery, but still far below pre-recession levels.

On the whole, this should be seen as a modestly positive report. The job growth in the establishment survey was impressive, but it still only brings the three-month average to 147,300. At the same time, the household survey is indicating a much weaker picture. The establishment survey is generally a better measure, but even the establishment survey is not showing strong job growth over the three-month period.

By Amitava Mukherjee*

Hasina Wazed, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh and the President of the Awami League (AL), needs to look inwards and ask herself some searching questions before she can really think of eradicating terrorism in her country. It is a fact that at this hour of crisis she is the best bet against fundamentalist politics in Bangladesh but some uncomfortable facts have cropped up which have put her style of governance under serious cloud.

The controversy surrounds an organization named the Awami Olama League which started its journey first in 1996, allegedly, under patronage from some Awami League bigwigs. Days before the ceremony of Bengali new year, (Poila Baishakh) in 2016 the organization took to the street demanding ban on funding and public performance of the Poila Boishakh ceremony. This surprised people in Bangladesh as the Awami League, according to its own charter, stands for secularism and democracy. It also champions equality of all irrespective of religion, caste,sex, community and ethnic identity.

The development was surprising. One faction of the Olama League called the Bengali New Year festivities ‘haraam’ (forbidden or proscribed in Islam) and wanted the government to do away with them because it was championed by ‘business class-driven by profit motives’ and an ‘anti-religious media’ to ‘de-Islamize Muslims’.

It has also demanded abolition of the law prescribing minimum age of marriage for girls, enactment of a law providing for death penalty for demeaning Islam, taking off the air all the Indian TV channels, banishment of anti- Islamic education policy and withdrawing of all text books that carry works of Humayun Azad, Rudra Mohammed Shahidullah, Selina Hossain, Sanjida Khatun and Kabir Chowdhury . All of them are known to be champions of secular democratic ideals.
Awami League moved quickly against the Olama League and officially denied any connection with it.

Still some interesting facts remain. The Awami Olama League has three factions. One of it is largely non functional. But the other two factions used to give 23, Bangabandhu Avenue,Dhaka as their official address. Incidentally this happens to be the central office of the Awami League.

Last year The Daily Star, a respected English language daily in Dhaka, had sent its representative to cross-check whether any faction of the Olama League has its office in the Awami League central office building. The representative was not disheartened. He found that both the factions used to operate from the second floor of the same building.

Leaders of both the factions have, however, claimed their close relations with several Awami League Leaders. One of the Olama League leaders even claimed that Hasina had invited him to several programmes.

More interesting was, however, the answers of Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah, the AL religious affairs secretary, to the Daily Star queries. Abdullah had frankly confessed that Hasina Wazed had directed him to stop the activities of the Olama League. Now if the Olama League was not a part of the Awami League then how can the question of stopping its activities come? Finally Abdullah confessed that he had once tried to reconstitute the Awami Olama League but had failed.

There was perhaps an umbilical relationship between the Awami League and the Olama League. After all the latter had once thrown an Iftar party at Ganabhavan, the official residence of Hasina Wazed, the Prime Minister.

So splitting of hairs over whether the attack at the Holey Artisan Bakery was the handiwork of the IS or not makes very little sense. Gravity of the situation remains the same even if IS hand is not there. Bangladesh has come a long way from the concept of Bengali nationalism which led to its birth. The country is at a critical juncture and it has to choose between two alternatives – religious nationalism and linguistic nationalism.

Everybody knows which one of the two above mentioned models the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami would choose. But prevarication is not expected from the Awami League. Unfortunately, the AL under the leadership of Hasina Wazed has been providing umpteen examples in this line.

*Amitava Mukherjee is a senior journalist and commentator. He can be contacted at amukherjee57@yahoo.com

The attack on a bakery-cafe in Dhaka on July 1, 2016 which resulted in the death of 20 hostages, including 18 foreigners, marked a significant change in the nature of terror attacks in Bangladesh. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or the Islamic State (ISIS/IS) and Al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) have been claiming responsibility for some of the terror attacks ( including the one on the cafe in Dhaka) which have struck Bangladesh over last several months. This article examines the implications the Dhaka terror attack may hold for India.

While on one hand there is a lack of clarity as to which international terror group (AQIS or IS/ISIS) has inspired or supported the Dhaka attack, the Bangladeshi government insists that the attack was a home grown terror incident involving Bangladeshis and local radical ideology. Though the nature of the group which carried out the attack has its own connotations, for the purpose of this article let us consider the possibilities as open and yet focus on their common outcome, and which is the destabilisation of Bangladesh.

To that end, we must also factor in the sobering realisation that it was some good counter-terrorism field work by the Indian law enforcement agencies ( and providence) that Hyderabad( and India) do not find themselves counted along with the terror hit cities of Orlando, Istanbul, Dhaka, Baghdad, Jeddah and Medina this Ramadan.

Finally, internationally networked Islamic terrorism is like bad air- it is just a matter of time before it reaches the gates of India and Bangladesh through ideology, returning jihadists or foreign militants. To that end, any cogent assessment of the threats posed by radical jihadists must take into considerations the characteristics and fallout of the presence of such networks or groups.

Implications for India

Sheikh Abu Ibrahim al-Hanif, the head of IS operations in Bangladesh had stated in IS’s Dabiq magazine that, “Bangladesh is strategically important (to IS) for several reasons as it provides a location from which to expand future operations into eastern India and Myanmar”. While the IS may have attempted to ‘forcefully’ announce its arrival in Bangladesh, it is the nature and the likely impact of the terror group’s future designs on the entire Indian subcontinent that would be the cause of concern in India.

The strategic and security implications of India’s north-eastern states with their weak and tenuous connectivity are well understood. Indian security establishment has engaged for decades the divisive and separatist elements in these states, some of whom had found sanctuaries in Bangladesh and Myanmar. With IS attempting to consolidate in Bangladesh along with its rival the AQIS on one hand and Myanmar with its Rohingya issue featuring consistently as a potential Islamist battleground on the other, India could soon have a new and more portent external challenge to its national security.

According to India’s 2001 census data, 5.1 million persons were reported as migrants, of which nearly 3 million were estimated to be from Bangladesh. A subsequent study had put the irregular migration from Bangladesh to India in the range of 5 million to 20 million, most of who work as unskilled or semiskilled labourers. Bangladeshi migrants are settled in most parts of India and are integrated at varying levels and degrees into the Indian society and economy. Some of them visit Bangladesh, but most of them send back money through informal channels exposing them to radicalisation and security risks. Add to these thousands of Rohingya refugees illegally staying in various part of India.

World Bank data (Bilateral Remittance Matrix, 2014) had shown that, of the $7.6 billion of outward remittances from India, (54 per cent or $4.16 billion) was to Bangladesh alone in that year. Almost every year, more than half (50-55 per cent) of India’s total outward remittances are to Bangladesh. Besides geographical proximity, porous borders and historical ties, the large pool of undocumented migrant labour is seen as the reason behind the trend. As, non-banking finance companies are not allowed to facilitate outward remittances from India, all the transactions must be routed through banks this creates an operating space for informal money transfer channels for use by illegal migrants and a difficult-to-choke route for terror financing. To damp the flow of illegal migrants, India needs Bangladesh to prosper economically with a healthy job demand and not lose its secular character in a wave of radicalisation and associated terror strikes.

Scope for Cooperation

In October 2014, a blast in the Khagragarh area of Burdwan district in West Bengal revealed much to India’s concern and embarrassment a growing presence of Bangladeshi militants in India. The two men killed in the blast were identified as members of the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), which has carried out several terror attacks over the years all over Bangladesh. The point here is that at present the porous border and ethnic similarity along the Indo-Bangla border can provide logistic support and operational ease to terror groups of either country on both sides of the border.

The roadmap for better India-Bangladesh relations involves greater integration of transportation links, trade and services and energy security. Going forward, India plans to increase its use of Bangladesh’s internal transportation links for the development of its north eastern states, integration of the SAARC economic area and finally connecting the South Asia with ASEAN. Hence closing of borders in the not an option but efficient and effective border management is. India has a tremendous stake in a stable and economically vibrant Bangladesh and consequently its security.

In Feb 2015, months after the blast in Burdwan blew the lid off a thriving JMB network on its territory; India had proposed an anti-terror pact with Bangladesh, envisaging a structured mechanism for exchange of terrorism-related information and updates. India also provided Bangladesh a list of 39 camps of Indian insurgent groups still operating out of Bangladeshi territory and concentrated in the Chittagong region.

The proposed Indo-Bangla anti-terror pact sought regular exchange of terror information and intelligence on short-term/long-term threats, joint investigation of terror cases with cross-country linkages, coordinated counter-terror action as well as exchange of training and best counter-terror practices. The pact also aimed to check terror financing and circulation of counterfeit currency.

Cognizant of the imperative of a stable and secure Bangladesh, the Indian Prime Minister during his visit to Dhaka in June 2015 had stressed the need for the effective implementation of Coordinated Border Management Plan (CBMP) for better border management. He also signed MoUs to curb counterfeit currency and human trafficking.

Geography, demography and geopolitics steadfastly bind the fortunes of India and Bangladesh together. India’s security is threatened by terror groups not just by their use of Bangladeshi soil as a launch pad for terror attacks against India, but by destabilisation of Bangladesh itself.

*Monish Gulati is Associate Director (Strategic Affairs) of the Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. He can be reached at: mgulati@spsindia.in. This article appeared at South Asia Monitor

By K. V. Kesavan

On July 10, Japan goes to polls to elect half the members of the House of Councillors, the Upper House. In the Japanese legislative structure, the Upper House is less powerful than the House of Representatives, though both are elected directly by the voters. Members of the House of Councillors are elected for a period of six years and one half of the total 242 members face election every three years.

Though less powerful than the Lower House, the House of Councillors still has an important role to play. It can considerably delay the passing of laws if the ruling party does not enjoy majority strength in it. This was seen particularly after 2000 leading to what was known as the “divided Diet”.

Since the Upper House election takes place once in three years and that too in between the Lower House elections, its outcome is considered as a mid-term assessment of the government’s performance. It provides a reality check on the pulse of the electorate. In 2007, during the first tenure of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition performed very poorly in the Upper House election which accelerated the fall of the Abe cabinet.

On the contrary, in the July 2013 Upper House election, the same coalition scored an impressive victory, gained a commanding majority in the House and consolidated the position of the government. The present election is the second Upper House election Abe faces since his return to power in 2012. Most media surveys indicate that the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition will be able to secure a comfortable majority. But what the coalition seeks to achieve is a two thirds majority which would enable Abe to propose an amendment to the constitution.

Though the Prime Minister has always strongly advocated the need for amending Article 9 of the constitution, this time he has shown considerable caution to keep the focus away from that issue. In fact, the ruling coalition’s election campaign has been marked by a conspicuous absence of references to constitutional revision. The reasons for this are not far to seek. Recent public opinion polls consistently showed popular opposition to constitutional revision. Secondly, LDP’s ally Komeito has always shown its resistance to amending Article 9 of the constitution. Abe has therefore chosen to consider the present election as a “referendum” to know from the electorate whether he should continue to pursue his economic policies further. He also seeks an endorsement of the electorate for his decision to delay the second hike of the consumption tax from 8% to 10 % until 2019. He states that this delay is intended to prevent the global economic showdown from upsetting his efforts to eliminate deflation. According to Abe, “This is an election to decide whether we will forge ahead strongly with economic policies or return to an era of darkness and stagnation.”

But the opposition parties expectedly consider Abe’s postponement as a clear admission of the failure of Abenomics to deliver. Abe, however, counters their criticism by citing significant increases in the country’s tax revenue as well as in the creation of new job opportunities.

As for the nature of the present election, it is necessary to take note of three important changes that have occurred recently and it is too early to say whether they will have any impact on the outcome of the polls.

First, the election law has lowered the voting age from 20 to 18 and this will enable about 2.4 million young voters to exercise their franchise for the first time. In order to woo the young voters, political parties have come out with such proposals as reduction in educational expenses, better employment opportunities and higher minimum wages. Second, under pressure from the judiciary, the government has also redrawn electoral boundaries to avoid glaring disparities in the value of votes between constituencies. The Supreme Court had earlier declared the 2013 Upper House election as “a contest conducted in a state of unconstitutionality.” Under the new system, several modifications have been made to ensure a proper balance in the distribution votes among constituencies. Third, a certain degree of realignment of political forces has taken place on the eve of this election. Even in January this year, realising the need for fighting the ruling coalition in a united way, the main opposition Democratic Party and the New Innovation Party got merged to form a new party called the Democratic Party (Minshinto). In addition, for the first time in Japan’s post-war politics, the Japan Communist Party (JCP) will cooperate with other opposition parties including the Democratic Party in fielding common candidates in the 32 single member constituencies in order to avoid dividing their votes. Both the LDP and the Komeito have understandably criticised this ‘unholy’ electoral understanding. It is well-known that these 32 constituencies have been the real source of LDP’s electoral strength.

The LDP-led coalition is already having 84 uncontested seats in its tally and in the present election, it needs to win 78 seats out of the 121 seats up for the grab to reach the magic number of 162 which is the 2/3 majority in the House. If this happens, the ruling coalition, with its 2/3 majority strength already in the House of Representatives, could initiate a proposal in the Diet for amending the Constitution.

Understanding this situation, the opposition parties, mainly the Democratic Party under Katsuya Okada, are showing their utmost determination to stop Abe from capturing 78 seats. They perhaps do not mind Abe winning a simple majority by securing 38 seats. But considering the intensity of the campaign carried by the ruling coalition and the weaknesses of the opposition, one should not be surprised if the LDP coalition manages to secure 2/3 majority in the Upper House.

In such a scenario, will Abe be in a mood to immediately embark on his initiative for a constitutional amendment? Many analysts and commentators believe that Abe will be politically prudent not to show any haste in pushing his pet political goal. He knows that mere numerical strength in the Diet alone is not enough, because any proposal for constitutional change will have to be endorsed by the people in a national referendum. Apart from opposition leaders who are vehemently against constitutional amendment, even Abe and many party colleagues are not confident about the outcome of a national referendum. Further, the Komeito, LDP’s trusted political ally, has many reservations on the question of amending Article 9 of the Constitution. There is a strong belief across the political spectrum that a national consensus on the issue is still evolving and that more persistent efforts are needed to prepare the nation for such a major constitutional turning-point.

Osama bin Laden’s son, Hamza bin Laden, has threatened revenge against the US in a video posted online, the Independent reported.

In the 21-minute speech entitled “We are all Osama,” Hamza bin Laden promised to continue al-Qaeda’s global militant fight against the US sand its allies as revenge for the death of his father.

“We will continue striking you and targeting you in your country and abroad in response to your oppression of the people of Palestine, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and the rest of the Muslim lands that did not survive your oppression,” Hamza said.

“As for the revenge by the Islamic nation for Sheikh Osama, may Allah have mercy on him, it is not revenge for Osama the person but it is revenge for those who defended Islam,” he continued.

Osama bin Laden was killed in a 2011 raid by US commandos on his compound in Pakistan.

Original article

A top Spanish bullfighter has been gored to death in the ring during a fight observed by hundreds of horrified spectators. He is the first person to have died at a bullring in the country this century.

Victor Barrio, 29, was killed on Saturday when a bull’s horn ripped through the man’s chest. The fight was being staged in the town of Teruel in the eastern region of Aragon. The performance ending with Barrio’s death was also broadcast on television.

The last matador who was killed during a bullfight in Spain was Jose Cubero, also known as Yiyo, in 1985. Manolo Montoliu and Ramon Soto Vargas were the last bandilleros, or matador’s assistants, that died at a bullring, both in 1992.

Barrio’s wife was among the audience who watched the tragedy happen before her own eyes. The moment he fell on the ground other matadors rushed to help. Barrio was taken to the hospital, but doctors said they were unable to save him.

Barrio was pronounced dead at the scene. The website of Madrid’s Las Ventas bullring at which Barrio began as an apprentice, confirmed his death.

On Twitter, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy offered his condolences over Barrio’s death.

The same day another Spaniard was killed during a bull-run that took place in a village near Valencia. Two other people were gored to death at the festival in the town of Pamplona.

Around 2,000 bullfights are held in Spain annually. According to El Pais, as many as 134 people were killed by bulls in Spain in the past century. While some condemn the event as barbaric, others support the long-established tradition.

In 2010, Catalonia became the second Spanish region after the Canary Islands to ban the tradition.

The al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab militants in Somalia have killed at least 10 soldiers in an attack on a military base southwest of the capital, Mogadishu.

The fatalities came on Monday when the group rammed a car packed with explosives into the base. Militants then stormed the base, sparking a heavy exchange of fire which lasted for hours.

Major Ahmed Farah from the nearby town of Afgooye said at least 12 militants were killed in the clashes while a spokesman for al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 30 soldiers.

The assault on the base 50 km (30 miles) outside Mogadishu was part of the group’s campaign to topple the Western-backed government.

Somalia has been the scene of deadly fighting between government forces and al-Shabaab elements since 2006.

Al-Shabaab militants have been pushed out of Mogadishu and other major cities by government troops and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

AMISOM is largely made up of troops from Ethiopia, Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti, Sierra Leone, and Kenya.

Al-Shabaab members have continued to carry out attacks in Mogadishu despite being driven out from their bases in the seaside city in 2011.

Its victims have included international aid workers, journalists, civilian leaders and African Union peacekeepers.

Last month, a bomber first detonated a car with explosives at the gate of a hotel often used by politicians and tourists in the capital before the attackers moved in, killing at least 14 people.

The group claimed an attack on another hotel in Mogadishu which killed at least 10 people and left 50 others injured.

On Sunday, more than 100 al-Shabab militants raided a police station in northeast Kenya overnight, wounding one officer and making off with arms and ammunition.

Original article

By Kerim Has*

Turkey’s foreign policy has been on the rise this past month. Riding the wave of de-escalation in the Russia–Turkey dialogue, relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv are also being resumed after an almost six-year break. One should not forget that deterioration began in 2009, when Israel strengthened its positions in the Gaza Strip and soon started an open intervention. Later, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Recep Erdogan delivered his famous speech, later dubbed “one minute talk,” where he sharply criticized the actions of the Israeli leadership at the time. Further escalation happened in May 2010 following the incident[i] with the Turkish Mavi Marmara ship: as it attempted to break the Israeli blockade and deliver a humanitarian cargo to the Gaza Strip, Israel killed 10 Turkish citizens. Afterwards, political and diplomatic relations between the two countries were ceased.

Ankara has put forward three conditions which, should the Israeli side agree, could result in the de-escalation of the bilateral relations crisis: an official apology; compensation to the families of the deceased; and, most importantly, lifting the naval, land and air blockade of the Gaza Strip that has been in effect since 2006. In 2013, under U.S. President Barack Obama’s mediation, Israel agreed[ii] to offer a formal apology to Turkey and pay compensation. This may be viewed as the first step towards normalizing relations between the two countries, but questions concerning the sums to be paid to the victims and the lifting of the blockade were never even on the agenda.

On the other hand, Israel set a series of demands of its own, with which Ankara could not comply at that time. One was to abolish the prosecution of Israeli soldiers whose actions had resulted in the deaths of Turkish citizens. Essentially, it would ensure their immunity on an international level. At the same time, Tel Aviv could not lift the blockade of the Gaza Strip completely. Moreover, Israel insisted that the Turkish leadership significantly cut the number of the Hamas representatives (Israel views Hamas as a military threat) in Turkey and stop all contacts with the group as soon as possible. Obviously, the domestic political climate in both states, as well as the foreign political situation, did not allow Ankara and Tel Aviv to make mutual concessions. Until 2010, political and military contacts between the two countries had been developing successfully, but dropped off sharply that year. Israel-Turkey economic relations, however, were on the rise, and the trade volume grew many times over. What is more, it is common knowledge that, since 2014, the oil that fills the new pipeline from Iraqi Kurdistan is transported[iii] via Turkey and its ports (Ceyhan) and on into Israel. Such developments prove once again that neither country is interested in severing ties completely. And the results of the parliamentary elections held in Turkey on November 1, 2015, where the ruling party received nearly 50 per cent of the votes, allowed Ankara to adhere to a bolder foreign policy, including a rapprochement with Tel Aviv.

Normalization of Relations or Forced Cooperation?

It is apparent that the events in Syria and the Middle East played a key role in defining a new foreign policy, not only for countries directly connected with the region, but also for the non-regional players, primarily the West, Russia, and the United States. In this context, Turkey and Israel are countries that are involved in the conflict to some extent, and their domestic political situation depends directly on foreign policy decisions. Thus, both sides have gradually come to realize that looking for common ground is a necessity.

First, Turkey and Israel are two non-Arab countries in the Middle East whose positions and actions largely determine the development of the Middle East as a whole. In many ways, this served as a starting point for the recent rapprochement between Ankara and Tel Aviv. At the same time, both Turkey and Israel have long been targets for large-scale terrorist attacks. That is why a joint fight against armed and radical groups such as ISIS could significantly enhance possible bilateral cooperation. The lack of statehood and growing destabilization in many Middle Eastern countries force[iv] Ankara and Tel Aviv to look for common ground.

At the same time, it should be remembered that the involvement of the Russian Aerospace Defence Forces in Syria ran contrary to Ankara’s regional interests and thus afforded an opportunity for a renewed dialogue between Turkey and Israel. Tehran’s nuclear agreement (Р5+1), which opened a new page in Iran developing its regional influence and strengthening its international stance, also contributed to a further rapprochement between Turkey and Israel. Neither Turkey, nor Israel favour Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East, and therefore, making it necessary for Ankara and Tel Aviv to cooperate. Although the question remains open as to which party will derive greater profits from this rapprochement, the renewed dialogue is nothing but a reflection of Realpolitik. Certainly, this rapprochement cannot fully resolve the crises and disagreements, of which Turkey and Israel had had their fair share even before the Syrian crisis, but it could minimize the increasing risks of destabilization processes.

Second, Ankara’s foreign policy largely contributed to isolating Turkey from regional processes, while non-regional actors such as Russia, the United States and western countries have now joined in. A significant cooling of Russia-Turkey relations was a trigger to overcoming the Israel–Turkey crisis. In a typical move, in May 2016, Turkey revised[v] its position concerning the right to veto the opening of the Israeli office at NATO’s Brussels headquarters. For a long time, Ankara was against such cooperation.

It should also be noted that, although officially, cooperation between Israel and NATO was not particularly productive, bilateral cooperation with Washington has compensated for this. Moreover, as is well known, Turkey has been going through a period of strained relations with its western partners of late, including the United States. For Ankara, Tel Aviv has become a bridge for improving dialogue with Washington due to Israel’s powerful lobby in Washington.

Third, despite the political premises for improving relations, energy is also a very significant factor. The energy situation in the Eastern Mediterranean has changed drastically over the past five or six years. Geological explorations for new deposits are under way. Ten years ago, discussions focused on the possibilities of exporting Russian gas to Israel, and now Tel Aviv is concerned with selling its own gas to Europe, thus essentially becoming a competitor for Moscow. Among the largest new gas fields[vi] are Tamar (discovered in 2009) and Leviathan (discovered in 2010).

Later, taking into account the impossibility of finding a consensus in the Turkey–Israel dialogue, Tel Aviv was prepared to sell its gas to Egypt, which also had political disagreements with Ankara. The rapprochement between Cairo and Tel Aviv was as disadvantageous for Ankara as Iran’s growing influence in the region. Thus, Turkey was forced to soften its stance in order to prevent further rapprochement between states Ankara had conflicts with. However, in 2015, Egypt conducted its own geological exploration, which resulted in the discovery of its own shelf deposits. Israel was forced to look north and west to export its gas. Some suppose that had geological exploration revealed large gas fields in Israel during the Turkey–Israel crisis, the Mavi Marmara incident would not have had such grave aftermath. However, history knows no “ifs.”

Israel’s rapprochement with Cyprus and Greece also irritated Ankara due to the territorial proximity of the states and Ankara’s clear interests in that area. The possibility of exporting natural gas into those countries seemed attractive to Tel Aviv, yet constructing a new pipeline branch into Greece and Cyprus was not financially sound, since neither country consumed sufficient amounts of energy commodities to meet Israel’s export plans.

It is also obvious that the Eastern Mediterranean is an unstable region. Territorial conflicts and questions of the water border jurisdiction involve a large number of risks, and to minimize them, Tel Aviv would still have to negotiate with Ankara. At the same time, transporting Israeli gas to the European market via Turkey is more advantageous from a financial point of view. On the other hand, a crisis in Russia–Turkey relations had a negative impact on the possibilities of diversifying Turkey’s energy sources, which enhanced the role of such gas exporting countries as Azerbaijan, Qatar, Iraq and Israel.

Fourth, other than Turkey, Israel has also recently experienced international pressure as a result of its actions in Palestine.[vii] The Iranian factor also irritates Tel Aviv, because Iran has gained the status of a significant regional player and enjoys the support of western countries, Russia and China. The nuclear agreement also contributed to the fact that countries that had previously been unable to find common ground started to talk about the possibilities of cooperation. This is what happened between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, both Israel and Turkey believe that, with time, Tehran will enhance its positions in Syria, Yemen and other Middle Eastern countries, which is not in the best interests of Ankara and Tel Aviv.

Who Sets the Terms of the Agreements?

As we have already noted, normalization of the Turkey-Israel dialogue required that Tel Aviv comply with three demands, and the main demand – a complete lifting of the Gaza Strip blockade – has never been implemented. Still, in late June 2016, the parties were able to reach a consensus and sign an agreement giving Ankara the right to ship humanitarian cargo for the Gaza strip to the Israeli port of Ashdod on the condition that such cargo is cleared by the Israeli authorities and the contents are inspected upon arrival. At the same time, an agreement was achieved on constructing a power plant in Gaza jointly with Germany. Turkish contractors are also ready to build a hospital and water treatment facilities.

Essentially, the agreement returns both parties to the time period before the Mavi Marmara incident.[viii] Israel puts forward the same demands as before, and Turkey believes that it can extenuate the blockade. Ankara agreed to Tel Aviv’s demands that the prosecution of Israeli soldiers who had caused the death of Turkish citizens be stopped and the number of Hamas offices in Turkey be reduced. The remaining offices will have to play a diplomatic role. It was a kind of symbolic gesture on the part of the Turkish leadership towards Israel.

Despite the progress in the Turkey-Israel dialogue, there is a risk that relations could deteriorate due to the unpredictability of developments in the Gaza Strip and in Israel-Palestine relations. Moreover, as is well known, Egypt has recently initiated its own blockade of the Gaza Strip as a result of the close ties between Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. It is therefore apparent that in the nearest future, in order to develop a more effective foreign policy and resolve domestic political issues Turkey will have to improve its relations with both Tel Aviv and Cairo.

Note: This piece first appeared in Russian language on the web site of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) on 5 July 2016. http://russiancouncil.ru/inner/?id_4=7888#top-content

*Kerim Has is an expert at the Center for Eurasian Studies of the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK). He is also a teaching scholar at the Moscow State University. His main research areas are Russian domestic and foreign policy, Central Asia and Caucasus, security issues and energy politics in Eurasia.

[i] “Mavi Marmara: Why did Israel stop the Gaza flotilla?”, 27 June 2016, (http://www.bbc.com/news/10203726).
[ii] Kadri Gursel, “Israel Apologizes; Turkey Steps Back”, 25 March 2013, (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/erdgoan-acceptance-netanyahu-apology-syria.html).
[iii] “Israel accepts 1^st delivery of disputed Kurdish pipeline oil”, 22 June 2014, (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/israel-accepts-1st-delivery-of-disputed-kurdish-pipeline-oil.aspx?pageID=238&nID=68104&NewsCatID=348).
[iv] Osman Bahadır Dinçer & Büşra N. Özgüler, “Krizden Normalleşmeye Türkiye-İsrail İlişkileri: Neden Şimdi?”, Uluslararası Stratejik Araştırmalar Kurumu, USAK Analiz №3, 2016, (http://www.usak.org.tr/_files/2862016181906-NP9GKYGKN5.pdf).
[v] “Israil otkrıvayet predstavitelstvo v NATO: «vajnıy shag k ukrepleniyu bezopasnosti»”, 4 May 2016, (http://news.israelinfo.co.il/politics/61641).
[vi] “Israelsky gas dlya Evropı: pochemy «Gazpromu» ne nujno bespokoitsya”, 26 November 2014, (http://slon.ru/world/izrailskiy_gaz_dlya_evropy_pochemu_gazprom_mozhet_ne_grustit-1188178.xhtml).
[vii] Osman Bahadır Dinçer & Büşra N. Özgüler, “Krizden Normalleşmeye Türkiye-İsrail İlişkileri: Neden Şimdi?”, Uluslararası Stratejik Araştırmalar Kurumu, USAK Analiz №3, 2016, (http://www.usak.org.tr/_files/2862016181906-NP9GKYGKN5.pdf).
[viii] Ibid.

The biggest and most violent protest in Germany erupted in Berlin over the weekend, exactly with our models calling for an explosion in civil unrest.

Some 1,800 police were called in and at least 120 policemen were injured in what become a street battle. This has been the most aggressive and violent protest in Germany for the past five years.

Protesters were throwing bottles, cobblestones and fireworks, as well as they destroyed cars in addition to attacking police officers. It appears at least 3,500 rioters took part in the uprising and possibly more than 4,000.

The protest is against police operations and involved mostly young people who have risen up against the police operations in the Riga street area. Protesters wore black hoods carrying banners with slogans like “Riga defend 94” and “Housing solidarity against state terror.”

The demonstration went on with the crowd chanting repeatedly: “Bullenschweine get out of Riga!” Demonstrators were throwing firecrackers and police fired back with tear gas. The police also called in air support using helicopters and they had to call in for reinforcements from Bavaria, Brandenburg, Lower Saxony, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia and the Federal Police.

Interior Senator Frank Henkel (CDU) announced that the police will also be present at night after the demonstration, so riots and arson attacks should be stopped…calling the riot a “leftist orgy of violence.”

With September’s elections looming we suspect the tensions will only get worse.

The phrase “tipping point” passed its own tipping point and caught fire after author Malcolm Gladwell’s so-named 2000 book. It’s now frequently used in discussions about climate change, but what are “climate tipping points”? And what do they mean for society and the economy?

Scientists at Rutgers University and Harvard University tackle the terminology and outline a strategy for investigating the consequences of climate tipping points in a study published online today in the journal Earth’s Future.

“I hear from a lot of people in the general public who wonder whether we’ve passed a tipping point with respect to the climate, but frequently they don’t know precisely what the term means,” said Robert E. Kopp, the study’s lead author and an associate professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers. “And that’s on the scientific community. Oftentimes, we use the term in a way that doesn’t quite jive with popular understanding.”

“In the climate science world, the consequences of what are sometimes called tipping points may take decades or centuries to play out,” Kopp added. “By contrast, many people think, ‘OK, we’ve crossed a tipping point now, something is going to happen quickly.’ That’s more consistent with the way the term was popularized, before it was adopted by the climate science community, and that’s a terminological confusion we wanted to clarify.”

The authors recommend using the phrase “climatic tipping elements” to describe portions of the climate system that may be abruptly committed to major shifts as a result of the changing climate. Arctic sea ice, the Antarctic ice sheet, and the Amazon rainforest are examples of elements to which the term may apply. They also draw a connection to “social tipping elements,” such as public opinion and policy changes, technological or behavioral changes, mass migrations and conflict-development traps.

Social tipping elements may be influenced by climate change. And some climate tipping elements and social tipping elements may have the ability to trigger economic shocks – large, rapid losses in a country’s economic capacity. Civil wars, which are made more frequent by temperature extremes, are an example of a social tipping event associated with economic shocks.

But not all climate tipping elements play out quickly enough to have major economic impacts in time frames relevant to policy or economic decisions.

“We wanted to clarify the difference between a ‘tipping point’ the way that Malcolm Gladwell uses the term and a ‘critical threshold’ in a system, which may or may not lead to a quick change,” Kopp said. “You cross a critical threshold with respect to the Antarctic ice sheet, which we may have already crossed, and we may be committed to multiple meters of sea level rise, but those may play out over centuries.”

Study authors include Rachael L. Shwom, an associate professor in the Department of Human Ecology at Rutgers; Gernot Wagner, a research associate at Harvard University’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences in Cambridge, Massachusetts; and Jiacan Yuan, a post-doctoral fellow in the Kopp-led Rutgers Earth System Science & Policy Lab.

“We’re worried about mass migration or increases in poverty and civil conflicts that lead to destabilization of societies following climate change,” Shwom said. “That certainly will increase suffering among people.”

The literature on the costs of climate change often links climatic “tipping points” and large economic shocks that are often called “catastrophes,” according to the study. The phrase “tipping points” in this context can be misleading because the subsequent changes can be either abrupt or slow.

If the lag between crossing a critical threshold and an impact is too long, we may not notice until it’s too late to do anything about it, Kopp said. If we notice that we’ve done something wrong, it may be possible to intervene and limit the damage.

The authors propose a research agenda that advances the study of the social and economic consequences of climatic tipping elements, social tipping elements sensitive to climate change, and climate-economic shocks.

Shwom wants to look into any cases where it looks like social tipping elements have been tipped and the underlying conditions.

“There’s been a lot of attention paid to climate tipping points where some major change in the climate happens, but this study gave me a chance to think about how social systems will respond to climate change,” she said. “Social system tipping points can worsen or reduce the impacts of climate change.”

In the print edition of the latest issue of National Review, staff writer David French has a sobering article describing how the Veterans Health Administration is overdosing veterans on prescription drugs. A veteran himself, French has plenty of anecdotes about his buddies:

They couldn’t sleep, so they had to take Ambien. They were depressed, so they were taking Lexapro. They had chronic neck and back pain after hanging 90 pounds of gear on their frame day after day, month after month, so they took Lortab. They were anxious, so they took Xanax.

It was as if a VA doctor had simply listened to a list of symptoms, located a pill to address each complaint, loaded up the patient with prescriptions, and called it “treating” a soldier with PTSD.

In 2014, an inspector-general report found that the VA was systematically over-medicating its patients – even to the point of death.

Wisconsin’s Senate race is being roiled by a report on the VA facility at Tomah, a place so notorious for freely writing narcotics prescriptions that it gained the nickname “Candyland.”

(David French, “Casualties of the VA,” National Review, Vol. LXVIII, No. 12, July 11, 2016, pp. 20-21.)

I am sure the usual bad government incentives are at work here. I’d also like to point out that the VA gets the lowest prices in the country for prescription drugs. However, of the top 200 drugs prescribed in the United States, only 59 are on the VA’s formulary (list of drugs covered).

Despite low prices and lack of access to most commonly prescribed drugs, the VA manages to get veterans hooked on narcotics. Why would we expect the federal government to do a better job if it dictated prices and controlled access to medicines for other Americans?

This article was published at The Beacon.

A huge earthquake may be building beneath Bangladesh, the most densely populated nation on earth. Scientists say they have new evidence of increasing strain there, where two tectonic plates underlie the world’s largest river delta. They estimate that at least 140 million people in the region could be affected if the boundary ruptures; the destruction could come not only from the direct results of shaking, but changes in the courses of great rivers, and in the level of land already perilously close to sea level.

The newly identified threat is a subduction zone, where one section of earth’s crust, or a tectonic plate, is slowly thrusting under another. All of earth’s biggest known earthquakes occur along such zones; these include the Indian Ocean quake and tsunami that killed some 230,000 people in 2004, and the 2011 Tohoku quake and tsunami off Japan, which swept away more than 20,000 and caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Up to now, all known such zones were only under the ocean; this one appears to be entirely under the land, which greatly multiplies the threat. The findings appear in this week’s issue of Nature Geoscience.

Subduction-zone quakes generally occur where plates of heavy ocean crust slowly dive offshore beneath the lighter rocks of adjoining continents, or under other parts of the seafloor. Sometimes sections get stuck against each other over years or centuries, and then finally slip, moving the earth. Scientists knew of the plate boundary in and around Bangladesh, but many assumed it to be sliding only horizontally near the surface, where it sometimes causes fairly large, but less damaging earthquakes in areas that are not as densely populated. However, the authors of the new research say movements on the surface over the past decade show that subduction is taking place below, and that part of the plate juncture is locked and loading up with stress. They are not forecasting an imminent great earthquake, but say it is an “underappreciated hazard.”

“Some of us have long suspected this hazard, but we didn’t have the data and a model,” said lead author Michael Steckler, a geophysicist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “Now we have the data and a model, and we can estimate the size.” He said strain between the plates has been building for at least 400 years–the span of reliable historical records, which lack reports of any mega-quake. When an inevitable release comes, the shaking is likely to be larger than 8.2, and could reach a magnitude of 9, similar to the largest known modern quakes, said Steckler. “We don’t know how long it will take to build up steam, because we don’t know how long it was since the last one,” he said. We can’t say it’s imminent or another 500 years. But we can definitely see it building.”

The newly identified zone is an extension of the same tectonic boundary that caused the 2004 Indian Ocean undersea quake, some 1,300 miles south. As the boundary reaches southeast Asia, the complexity of the motions along it multiply, and scientists do not completely understand all of them. But basically, they say, a giant plate comprising India and much of the Indian Ocean has been thrusting northeasterly into Asia for tens of millions of years.

This collision has caused the Himalayas to rise to the north, bringing events like the 2015 Nepal quake that killed 8,000 people. Bangladesh, India’s neighbor, lies on the far eastern edge of this plate, but pressure from the collision seems to be warping Asia clockwise around the top of Bangladesh, ending up largely in the next country over, Myanmar. This wraparound arrangement has resulted in a crazy quilt of faults and quakes in and around Bangladesh. Among the largest, a 1762 subduction-zone quake near the southern coast killed at least 700 people. This January, a magnitude 6.7 event in adjoining eastern India killed more than 20. There have been dozens of large quakes in between, but the assumption was that no actual subduction was taking place under Bangladesh itself, seeming to insulate the region from a truly gigantic one. The new study undercuts this idea.

Starting in 2003, U.S. and Bangladeshi researchers set up about two dozen ground-positioning (GPS) instruments linked to satellites, capable of tracking tiny ground motions. Ten years of data now show that eastern Bangladesh and a bit of eastern India are pushing diagonally into western Myanmar at a rapid clip–46 millimeters per year, or about 1.8 inches. Combined with existing GPS data from India and Myanmar, the measurements show that much of the resulting strain has been taken up by several known, slowly moving surface faults in Myanmar and India. But the rest of the movement–about 17 millimeters, or two-thirds of an inch per year–is shortening the distance from Myanmar to Bangladesh. This has been going on for a long time, and the results are clearly visible: neatly parallel north-south ranges of mountains draping the landscape, like a carpet being shoved against a wall. The researchers interpret the shortening pattern to mean that subduction is taking place below, and that a huge zone–about 250 kilometers by 250 kilometers, more than 24,000 square miles–is locked and building pressure, just a few miles below the surface. The zone includes Bangladesh’s densely packed capital of Dhaka, a megalopolis of more than 15 million.

Steckler says that, assuming fairly steady motion over the last 400 years, enough strain has built for the zone to jump horizontally by about 5.5 meters, or 18 feet, if the stress is released all at once. If strain has been building longer, it could be up to 30 meters, or almost 100 feet. The land would also move vertically, to a lesser extent. This is the worst-case scenario; in the best case, only part would slip, and the quake would be smaller and farther from Dhaka, said Steckler.

In any case, Bangladesh and eastern India sit atop a landscape vulnerable even to moderate earthquakes: the vast delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. This is basically a pile of mud as deep as 12 miles, washed from the Himalayas to the coast, covering the subduction zone. In a quake, this low-lying substrate would magnify the shaking like gelatin, and liquefy in many places, sucking in buildings, roads and people, said study coauthor Syed Humayun Akhter, a geologist at Dhaka University. The great rivers–10 miles across in places–could jump their banks and switch course, drowning everything in the way; there is in fact evidence that such switches have happened in previous centuries.

Akhter says that fast-growing, poor Bangladesh is unprepared; no building codes existed before 1993, and even now, shoddy new construction flouts regulations. Past quake damages and deaths are no indicator of what could happen now, he said; population and infrastructure have grown so fast that even fairly moderate events like those of past centuries could be mega-disasters. “Bangladesh is overpopulated everywhere,” he said. “All the natural gas fields, heavy industries and electric power plants are located close to potential earthquakes, and they are likely to be destroyed. In Dhaka, the catastrophic picture will be beyond our imagination, and could even lead to abandonment of the city.”

Roger Bilham, a geophysicist at the University of Colorado who has studied the region but was not involved in the new paper, said its “data are unassailable, the interpretation is sound.” Bilham said the research “ties an enormous amount of structural interaction together. We have seen in recent history only modest seismicity responding to those interactions. The Indian subcontinent is effectively being pushed into a tight corner.”

Susan Hough, a U.S. Geological Survey seismologist who also studies the region and was not involved in the study, said that in recent years, “we’ve been surprised by big earthquakes that have not been witnessed during historical times, or witnessed so long ago, they were forgotten. Studies like this are critical for identifying those zones.”

Scientists in Bangladesh and neighboring countries continue to assess the hazards. James Ni, a seismologist at New Mexico State University, said he and colleagues hope to deploy 70 seismometers across Myanmar in 2017, to get a better image of the apparently subducting slab. “We don’t have a good idea of its geometry, we don’t know how far it goes down,” said Ni. He said that if the study authors are right, and the slab is building strain, a quake would probably turn urban areas in eastern India “into ruins,” and effects likely would extend into Myanmar and beyond. “We need more data,” he said.

Europe will be spared the worst economic impacts of climate change by a slowing down of the Gulf Stream, new research predicts.

Scientists have long suggested that global warming could lead to a slowdown – or even shutdown – of the vast system of ocean currents, including the Gulf Stream, that keeps Europe warm.

Known as the Thermohaline Circulation, this system operates like a conveyor belt, transporting warm water from the tropics to Europe, where evaporation decreases salinity and density so that the water sinks.

As the world warms, melting icecaps and increased rainfall are widely predicted to slow this process down by flooding oceans with cold freshwater.

Some experts even fear that the process could shut down altogether, plunging Europe into a new ice age.

However, a new study by the University of Sussex, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and the University of California, Berkeley finds that, rather than cooling Europe, a slowdown of the Thermohaline Circulation would mean the continent still warms, but less quickly than other parts of the world.

This would lead to a rise in welfare standards in Europe, concludes the research, which is published in the leading economics journal the American Economic Review.

Professor Tol, Professor of Economics in the School of Business, Management and Economics at the University of Sussex, said: “Cooling is probably a good bit more harmful than warming, particularly in Europe. People rightly fear that climate change would cause a new ice age.

“Fortunately, our study finds no cooling at all. Instead, we find slower warming: a boon for Europeans.”

Of course, as ocean currents redistribute rather than create heat, slower warming for Europe means slightly accelerated warming elsewhere.

The study, therefore, adds to a growing body of evidence predicting a rich/poor divide in the climate change stakes. Developing countries will be less able to cope with rising sea levels, for example, and – as this research suggests – may warm faster than other, more developed parts of the world.

By Shastri Ramachandaran *

Tashkent and Seoul were both in the news in the last week of June, for events which may have set in motion changes with far-reaching consequences for power equations in Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Hence, the two cities may well be remembered as the trigger-point of developments on which Sino-Russian strategic partnership may have an impact.

Seoul was the venue for the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) plenary, which frustrated India’s attempts to gain entry. Around the same time, although Tashkent was witness to more momentous events, the bilateral meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping stole the thunder. Only because the Modi-Xi meeting was about India’s bid for NSG membership, widely publicized as enjoying unstinted U.S. support.

Yet the big picture showing in Tashkent was the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), for which Xi was there primarily. This was a landmark summit, for it was here that the SCO opened its doors to embrace India, Pakistan and Iran as full members.

The second big thing in Tashkent, which Washington and U.S.-led nations may have followed with greater interest, is the meeting between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. As important as the meeting was Xi’s affirmation that the two countries are pledged to support and defend the core interests of each other.

In other words, Russia and China may speak and act as one in the unfolding U.S.-led rebalance strategy in Asia, in Eurasia and Eastern Europe, and in other hot spots such as the South China Sea, the Middle East and Ukraine. While this may not be music to Washington, the U.S. has no reason to be unduly worried, for it shares common interests with both China and Russia.

Unlike the U.S., India – which is entering the China-dominated SCO and hosting the BRICS Summit in Goa in October – may have to contend with the joint force of Sino-Russian power, should it choose to escalate its confrontation with China (over the NSG membership).

The Xi-Putin meeting in Uzbekistan took place on the eve of Putin’s state visit to Beijing on June 25. This was Putin’s fourth mission to China since Xi became president in 2013. The two heads of state vowed to “unswervingly deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination”. They also agreed to step up mutual support and boost “political and strategic mutual trust”.

This is the 15th year of the China-Russia Good-Neighbourly Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation; and, it also marks the 20th anniversary of the two countries forging the strategic partnership of coordination. “China and Russia should support each other on issues concerning core interests and constantly strengthen political and strategic mutual trust,” Xi said.

The significance of their pointed reaffirmations cannot be lost on neighbouring countries, particularly India with which the U.S. is seeking to strengthen military cooperation. It goes without saying that the two pivotal players may work together in forums such as SCO, BRICS and Russia-India-China (RIC) Meeting where India has high stakes.

As Russia and China go about aligning their interests for mutual strategic advantage, India has to take a closer look at its own options and opportunities. For instance, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) – with which China is ready to align as proposed by Russia – shows that the two are looking at big targets. At a time when the European Union is coming apart, the emergence of the EEA combined with China’s forays into Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with Russian backing, may challenge some of the settled arrangements in Central Asia as well as Europe.

This kind of strategic cooperation and coordination for “striking together” by two big powers is, perhaps, unprecedented. Yet at this juncture, history has turned the tables. Russia, once the greater power, is somewhat overshadowed by China, which is today the world’s second largest economy. China is also clubbed with the U.S. as “G2” — a position once held by the erstwhile Soviet Union though by default. And, China’s power is growing.

In any partnership, one partner is more equal than the other. While there is no doubt that China and Russia would do whatever it takes to adjust to and accommodate each other’s interests, there are areas which might test their resolve and cohesiveness. For example, the Belt and Road project runs through areas that fell within Russia’s sphere of influence; as does, Central and Eastern Europe.

It is possible, but not necessary to list out such areas, to underscore that China and Russia might have to work harder at reconciling their respective aims and ambitions in the interests of the larger objectives of their partnership.

*Shastri Ramachandran is an Indian journalist and commentator. He can be contacted at shastriji@hotmail.com. This article first appeared on July 1 in china.org.cn with the headline Sino-Russian relations: higher, stronger. It is being reproduced with the author’s permission.

Are pomegranates really the superfood we’ve been led to believe will counteract the aging process? Up to now, scientific proof has been fairly weak. And some controversial marketing tactics have led to skepticism as well.

A team of scientists from EPFL and the company Amazentis wanted to explore the issue by taking a closer look at the secrets of this plump pink fruit. They discovered that a molecule in pomegranates, transformed by microbes in the gut, enables muscle cells to protect themselves against one of the major causes of aging. In nematodes and rodents, the effect is nothing short of amazing. Human clinical trials are currently underway, but these initial findings have already been published in the journal Nature Medicine.

As we age, our cells increasingly struggle to recycle their powerhouses. Called mitochondria, these inner compartments are no longer able to carry out their vital function, thus accumulate in the cell. This degradation affects the health of many tissues, including muscles, which gradually weaken over the years. A buildup of dysfunctional mitochondria is also suspected of playing a role in other diseases of aging, such as Parkinson’s disease.

One molecule plays David against the Goliath of aging

The scientists identified a molecule that, all by itself, managed to re-establish the cell’s ability to recycle the components of the defective mitochondria: urolithin A.

“It’s the only known molecule that can relaunch the mitochondrial clean-up process, otherwise known as mitophagy,” said Patrick Aebischer, co-author on the study. “It’s a completely natural substance, and its effect is powerful and measurable.”

The team started out by testing their hypothesis on the usual suspect: the nematode C. elegans. It’s a favorite test subject among aging experts, because after just 8-10 days it’s already considered elderly. The lifespan of worms exposed to urolithin A increased by more than 45% compared with the control group.

These initial encouraging results led the team to test the molecule on animals that have more in common with humans. In the rodent studies, like with C. elegans, a significant reduction in the number of mitochondria was observed, indicating that a robust cellular recycling process was taking place. Older mice, around two years of age, showed 42% better endurance while running than equally old mice in the control group.

Human testing underway

Before heading out to stock up on pomegranates, however, it’s worth noting that the fruit doesn’t itself contain the miracle molecule, but rather its precursor. That molecule is converted into urolithin A by the microbes that inhabit the intestine. Because of this, the amount of urolithin A produced can vary widely, depending on the species of animal and the flora present in the gut microbiome. Some individuals don’t produce any at all. If you’re one of the unlucky ones, it’s possible that pomegranate juice won’t do you any good.

For those without the right microbes in their guts, however, the scientists are already working on a solution. The study’s co-authors founded a start-up company, Amazentis, which has developed a method to deliver finely calibrated doses of urolithin A. The company is currently conducting first clinical trials testing the molecule in humans in European hospitals.

According to study co-author Johan Auwerx, it would be surprising if urolithin A weren’t effective in humans.

“Species that are evolutionarily quite distant, such as C elegans and the rat, react to the same substance in the same way. That’s a good indication that we’re touching here on an essential mechanism in living organisms.”

Urolithin A’s function is the product of tens of millions of years of parallel evolution between plants, bacteria and animals. According to Chris Rinsch, co-author and CEO of Amazentis, this evolutionary process explains the molecule’s effectiveness: “Precursors to urolithin A are found not only in pomegranates, but also in smaller amounts in many nuts and berries. Yet for it to be produced in our intestines, the bacteria must be able to break down what we’re eating. When, via digestion, a substance is produced that is of benefit to us, natural selection favors both the bacteria involved and their host. Our objective is to follow strict clinical validations, so that everyone can benefit from the result of these millions of years of evolution.”

The EPFL scientists’ approach provides a whole new palette of opportunities to fight the muscular degeneration that takes place as we age, and possibly also to counteract other effects of aging. By helping the body to renew itself, urolithin A could well succeed where so many pharmaceutical products, most of which have tried to increase muscle mass, have failed. Auwerx, who has also published a recent discovery about the anti-aging effects of another molecule in the journal Science, emphasizes the game-changing importance of these studies.

“The nutritional approach opens up territory that traditional pharma has never explored. It’s a true shift in the scientific paradigm.”

By Matthew Tempest

(EurActiv) — Theresa May was Monday set to become the next British prime minister within the next 48 hours, as her only rival dropped out of the race.

It leaves the crux question of when she triggers Article 50, giving the UK two-year legal notice to leave the EU, hanging, as previously a new prime minister was not expected until September.

To add more fuel to the fire, May now come under heavy pressure to hold a general election, legitimising her place as prime minister, since she was neither elected by the public, nor even the Conservative party.

May has previously stated that Article 50 should not be triggered until 2017, and the UK negotiating position established.

However, that position has now been thrown into turmoil by the exit of Andrea Leadsom as her challenger to be Conservative Party leader and prime minister.

Later on Monday afternoon, Cameron appeared before reporters in Downing Street to announced that he would appear at his final Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons on Wednesday, before heading to Buckingham Palace, to officially resign to the Queen.

May will then become prime minister on Wednesday evening.

That rapidly contracts the timescale a new British prime minister has to work with.

More questions than answers

Cameron, after announcing he was stepping down in the wake of the shock 52-48% referendum vote to leave on 23 June, secured the agreement of the other 27 EU leaders to await the new PM to trigger Article 50.

That was expected to be in the autumn, giving the UK government time to plot a position over the summer.

During the EU summit at the end of June, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told a press conference that the next British prime minister would have “one day” to trigger Article 50, whilst a Remain-supporting PM would have “two weeks.”

It is unclear if he was serious, of if that was the official policy of the Commission.

In one of the first official reactions from the EU, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup, said: “We look forward to working with whoever comes out of this democratic process and we will have to find solutions for Brexit which has been causing a lot of problems particularly for the UK, but also for Europe.

“The sooner we can sort out this, let me put it diplomatically, problematic situation, the better.”

May supported the Remain camp, but has since stated that “Brexit means Brexit.”

Prior to today’s development, May had stated: “…there should be no decision to invoke Article 50 until the British negotiating strategy is agreed and clear.

“Which means Article 50 should not be invoked before the end of this year.”

In other remarks, May has stated: “There will be no attempts to remain inside the EU, there will be no attempts to rejoin it by the back door, no second referendum.

“I will make sure that we leave the European Union,” said May.

Boris Johnson, after withdrawing the from the contest, then backing Leadsom, has now backed May, whilst UKIP leader Nigel Farage has declared he was “disappointed” Leadsom had abandoned the race.

Meanwhile, in a sign of the continued shockwaves of the referendum vote, the opposition Labour party was also engaged in a leadership race on Monday, as Angela Eagle formally announced she would challenge Jeremy Corbyn – just 10 months after Corbyn was elected.

Corbyn has the support of hundreds of thousands of party members, but not of two-thirds of his fellow MPs.

Leadsom announced her stepping down at lunchtime, just four days after a ballot reduced the field to her and May.

She said a lengthy leadership race would be “highly undesirable”. However, her campaign had been rocked over the weekend after she claimed she would make a better prime minister than May, since she has children and May does not.

Despite accusing The Times of “gutter journalism”, the newspaper produced an audio and written transcript proving this was exactly what she stated.

By Mila Sanchez

The Olympics are a highly anticipated event that reels in even those who typically don’t watch sports. This year is especially notable as it is the first time a South American country has hosted the Olympics. But what should be an exciting and historic year for the games is turning into a complete disaster. There are so many worrisome factors surrounding the games in Rio that are very troublesome given the fact that the games are to start in less than one month. Crime has always been a problem in Brazil, but recently crime has begun to rise even higher in the eve of the Olympic games. While it has been stated that double the security of the London games will be patrolling the streets Rio de Janeiro, security forces have been protesting due to lack of funds to actually pay them. This comes as no surprise as the governor of Rio recently declared a state of financial and public calamity. And though the safety of people traveling to Brazil is important, there is an even bigger concern for the safety of the world with the outbreak of the Zika virus.

Zika Virus Crisis

The Zika virus is the latest serious disease outbreak to strike, and the outbreak seemingly started in Brazil. Though the virus has slowly been spreading throughout the Americas, it is mainly concentrated in Brazil. With arguably the largest global event taking place in Rio, and athletes and spectators traveling from around the world to participate, they could very well be bringing the worst possible souvenir home with them. While people infected with Zika typically suffer mild symptoms that generally last about a week (if they display any symptoms at all), it has been linked to more serious conditions such as Guillain-Barré Syndrome and acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM), though these are rare and not yet fully confirmed. The most serious condition connected to Zika is Microcephaly, a severe birth defect affecting the babies of women who were infected with Zika while pregnant. This birth defect can be debilitating or even fatal to babies born with it, and its connection to Zika is too strong to ignore.

The transmission of Zika is mostly attributed to mosquitoes, but it can also be transmitted through sexual contact. Because it is much more likely that a man can spread it to a partner, men are advised to abstain from sex, or correctly use a condom for up to six months after contracting the virus, as the virus has been found to live in sperm for much longer than in blood. This is especially significant for men whose partners are pregnant. It is advised that women who have contracted the virus abstain from trying to conceive for at least two months, as to avoid possible birth defects. Women currently pregnant are warned not to travel to areas affected by Zika, and to avoid having sex with men who have traveled to those areas for the entire duration of their pregnancy.

A Lack of Action despite Global Concern

Knowing the serious side effects and easy transmission of the Zika virus, it is astonishing that Olympic officials have done nothing to come up with an alternative, like holding the Olympics at a different time or place. The World Health Organization declared Zika a global health emergency back in January of 2016, giving plenty of time to find a solution that keeps Olympic attendees, and the world, safe, while taking into account the financial crisis in Rio. One such idea could have been using the facilities of a previous Summer Olympics host and using the proceeds to reimburse Rio the money they invested into building facilities. Whether or not that idea is feasible, the fact is that no action was taken to find a plan B for the Olympics, despite real concerns of a global epidemic.

Many athletes concerned about Zika have chosen to sit out this years Olympics, rather than risk their health and the health of their families. Though some countries are taking extra precautions to keep their athletes safe during the Olympics, the same safety measures will not be provided for the spectators traveling to the event. Despite the optimism of Rio Olympic organizers, ticket sales are far behind the ticket sales of the previous games in London, proving that many are deciding to skip the Olympics this year. Tourism is down overall in Brazil, and the Olympic games aren’t doing much to remedy that.

With the threat of rapid spreading of the Zika virus because of the Olympics, and overall safety concerns in Brazil, it is negligent to allow the Olympics to continue there. Because it’s too late to remedy the situation now, the CDC has created a page to help tourists protect themselves for those traveling to Rio this August. Take every precaution you can and stay safe, though the safest option is to abstain from traveling there completely.

This article was published at Geopolitical Monitor.com

A new temporary “electronic tattoo” developed by Tel Aviv University that can measure the activity of muscle and nerve cells researchers is poised to revolutionize medicine, rehabilitation, and even business and marketing research.

The tattoo consists of a carbon electrode, an adhesive surface that attaches to the skin, and a nanotechnology-based conductive polymer coating that enhances the electrode’s performance. It records a strong, steady signal for hours on end without irritating the skin.

The electrode, developed by Prof. Yael Hanein, head of TAU’s Center for Nanoscience and Nanotechnology, may improve the therapeutic restoration of damaged nerves and tissue — and may even lead to new insights into our emotional life.

Prof. Hanein’s research was published last month in Scientific Reports and presented at an international nanomedicine program held at TAU.

“Stick it on and forget about it”

One major application of the new electrode is the mapping of emotion by monitoring facial expressions through electric signals received from facial muscles. “The ability to identify and map people’s emotions has many potential uses,” said Prof. Hanein. “Advertisers, pollsters, media professionals, and others — all want to test people’s reactions to various products and situations. Today, with no accurate scientific tools available, they rely mostly on inevitably subjective questionnaires.

“Researchers worldwide are trying to develop methods for mapping emotions by analyzing facial expressions, mostly via photos and smart software,” Prof. Hanein continued. “But our skin electrode provides a more direct and convenient solution.”

The device was first developed as an alternative to electromyography, a test that assesses the health of muscles and nerve cells. It’s an uncomfortable and unpleasant medical procedure that requires patients to lie sedentary in the lab for hours on end. Often a needle is stuck into muscle tissue to record its electrical activity, or patients are swabbed with a cold, sticky gel and attached to unwieldy surface electrodes.

“Our tattoo permits patients to carry on with their daily routines, while the electrode monitors their muscle and nerve activity,” said Prof. Hanein. “The idea is: stick it on and forget about it.”

Applications for rehabilitation and more

According to Prof. Hanein, the new skin electrode has other important therapeutic applications. The tattoo will be used to monitor the muscle activity of patients with neurodegenerative diseases in a study at Tel Aviv Medical Center.

“But that’s not all,” said Prof. Hanein. “The physiological data measured in specific muscles may be used in the future to indicate the alertness of drivers on the road; patients in rehabilitation following stroke or brain injury may utilize the ‘tattoo’ to improve muscle control; and amputees may employ it to move artificial limbs with remaining muscles.”

The electrode is the product of a European Research Council (ERC) project and received support from the BSMT Consortium of Israel’s Ministry of Economy.