By Jaya Ramachandran

A new United Nations report lists China, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, Britain and the U.S. among countries that are benefiting from ‘trade misinvoicing’ practised by a large number of Commodity Dependent Developing Countries (CDDCs).

Trade misinvoicing – involving resort to deliberately misreporting the value of a commercial transaction on an invoice submitted to customs – “continues to be used as a key mechanism of capital flight and illicit financial flows from developing countries”, says a study by the Geneva-based UNCTAD, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Nearly 90 of developing countries are losing commodity export earnings worth billions of dollars in valuable foreign exchange earnings, taxes and income that might otherwise be spent on development. $3.9 trillion is the estimated annual investment required for achieving Sustainable Development Goals by the year 2030 ,

According to UNCTAD, in 2012-13, two out of three of all developing countries were Commodity Dependent Developing Countries (CDDCs) with half of these in Africa. It also indicates that commodity dependence increased between 2009-10 and 2012-13, with half of developing countries having seen their dependence on commodities grow during this period.

Dependency on commodities is even more severe in the most vulnerable countries, such as the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) group. In 2012-13, 85 per cent of LDCs could be considered as CDDCs. Their situation deteriorated compared to 2009-10.

UNCTAD data reveal that while developing countries rely heavily on commodities, their commodity exports are highly concentrated and export revenues dependent on a handful of primary products. For instance, the top three commodities exported from any given country contributed for more than 60 per cent of merchandise exports in 90 per cent of the 45 CDDCs in Africa in 2012-13.

Released during the UNCTAD Global Commodities Forum, an integral part of UNCTAD14 from July 17-22 in Nairobi, Kenya, the study avails of two decades’ worth of data covering exports of commodities such as cocoa, copper, gold and oil from Chile, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, South Africa and Zambia.

“This research provides new detail on the magnitude of this issue, made even worse by the fact that some developing countries depend on just a handful of commodities for their health and education budgets,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said.

Commodity exports may account for up to 90 per cent of a developing country’s total export earnings, he said, adding that the study generated fresh lines of enquiry to understand the problem of illicit trade flows.

“Importing countries and companies that want to protect their reputations should get ahead of the transparency game and partner with us to further research these issues,” Kituyi said.

The UNCTAD study highlights that between 2000 and 2014, under-invoicing of gold exports from South Africa amounted to $78.2 billion, or 67 per cent of total gold exports. Trade with the leading partners exhibited the highest amounts, as follows: India ($40 billion); Germany ($18.4 billion); Italy ($15.5 billion); Britain ($13.7 billion).

Between 1996 and 2014, under-invoicing of oil exports from Nigeria to the U.S. was worth $69.8 billion, or 24.9 per cent of all oil exports to the United States. Zambia recorded between 1995 and 2014, $28.9 billion in copper exports to Switzerland, more than half of all its copper exports, yet these exports did not appear in Switzerland’s books.

Chile recorded in the years 1990-2014 $16.0 billion in copper exports to the Netherlands, but these exports did not appear in the Netherlands’ books. Also 31.3 per cent ($5.0) of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa exports worth $17.2 billion between 1995 and 2014 did not appear in the Netherlands’ books. Between 2000 and 2014, under invoicing of iron ore exports from South Africa to China was worth $3 billion.

The UNCTAD study aims to contribute to research and policy debates by providing empirical evidence on the magnitude of trade misinvoicing in the particular case of primary commodity exports from five natural-resource-rich developing countries: Chile, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, South Africa and Zambia.

This sample comprises four resource-dependent developing countries and a more diversified resource-rich middle-income country (South Africa). It covers a representative sample of products in the three main categories of primary commodities: oil and gas; minerals, ores and metals (copper, gold, iron ore, silver and platinum); and agricultural commodities (cocoa).

According to the authors of the study, the inclusion of two copper exporters in the sample makes it possible to compare and contrast patterns of copper misinvoicing between two countries and over time.

The huge public expectations raised by devolved government on Kenya’s coast have turned into disappointment. Patronage politics that marked the former centralised system has been replicated in the new counties, making government even more inefficient and expensive. Though political leadership is now local, power is closely held, and leaders are suspicious of both national and local rivals. Certain regions, communities and many youth still feel marginalised. Political devolution has deflected but not resolved grievances that fuel militancy, which continues to be met by hard security measures driven from Nairobi. Greater inclusion and cooperation within and between county governments, as well as national-county dialogue, is needed to maximise devolution’s potential and ensure militant groups, like Al-Shabaab, have fewer grievances to exploit.

The 2010 constitution prescribes partnership between national and county institutions; instead there is competition and confrontation (at least for now peaceful). The former Coast province is divided into six new coastal county governments. They are caught between the popular and still potent idea of majimbo – greater political and economic autonomy and authority devolved to the regions – and a central government that expects them to focus on service delivery and only play a parochial political role that many dismiss in frustration as vijimbo (little regions). National government (including the president) have undertaken a number of high-profile, if piecemeal, initiatives that the coastal county elite has interpreted as a challenge to the spirit of devolution and its local political primacy. In response, leading coastal politicians are stirring up local discontent and threatening unilateral takeover of key revenue resources such as Mombasa port. However, the coastal retreat into defensive regionalism is likely only to exacerbate county-capital frictions, not extract concessions from the national government.

The tension between national and county government is not unique to the coast, but coastal grievances, historical and current, are particularly acute and have fuelled the recent rise in nativist and Islamist-inspired militancy. Militant networks, though damaged and presently dormant, are by no means dismantled, and parallel networks of urban youth gangs and armed political entourages make for a still combustible mix. The coastal counties also remain an opposition stronghold into which the ruling party would like to make inroads. This risks a convergence of national and local political competition in the 2017 elections of a sort that in the past has produced communal tensions and localised violence.

The gulf of mistrust – exploited by all sides – not only limits the full delivery of devolution’s benefits; in the case of the coastal counties, it also undermines efforts to combat militancy and attendant violence now subsumed under a “countering violent extremism” (CVE) agenda that is a priority of both Nairobi and its international partners. Rather than focus solely on building the capacity of the security and intelligence services, international assistance to counter radicalisation should give equal and increasing emphasis to outreach and reconciliation, so as to find political common ground and articulate and address the region’s grievances within the coast’s newly devolved political structures.

A renewed civic education campaign to underline the potential gains of devolution, as well as the responsibilities and roles of county government and its elected representatives, is urgently needed. Promising initiatives like the “Commonwealth of Coast Counties” (Jumiya Ya Kaunti Za Pwani, JKP), which aim to amplify the benefits of county government through regional (cross-county) projects, need to be depoliticised and given technical support by relevant national ministries and authorities and multilateral institutions (eg, the World Bank). There should be greater institutionalisation of welcome, but currently ad hoc, interventions toward resolving long-term land grievances, specifically the regularisation rather than wholesale redistribution of land titles.
Overall, renewed reconciliation work is needed at all levels in the coastal counties ahead of elections; specifically, national and county governments and donors need to reach a renewed understanding of the role and limits of civil society and community-based organisations (CSOs and CBOs), which are still best placed to identify and diffuse potential conflict flashpoints at local levels. The promotion of greater partnership between national and county governments (even as a regional bloc) should be a security and developmental priority for Kenya and its partners.

To read the entire report click here (PDF)

The release of the 28-page report on Friday fully exonerating Saudi Arabia of any alleged ties to 9/11 and has gained significant attention from analysts, politicians and judicial experts in the Kingdom and the United States.

Top American congressmen, political analysts and other government officials are calling for an end to the rumors and conspiracy theories that accuse the Kingdom of wrongdoing, and fully shifting the focus to identifying the true perpetrators of the attacks.

Republican Sen. Richard Burr, chairman of the Senate’s Intelligence Committee, in a statement on Friday, advised the American people to review the contents of the papers and put an end to all misinformation and conspiracies that do not serve the families of the victims. He said the release of the 28-page report confirms and clarifies that there were no findings of any involvement by the Saudi government or officials.

Congressman Devin Nunes, the House Intelligence Committee chairman, placed the blame on the weakness of the efforts of intelligence agencies in collecting information, noting a clear gap in the report and lack of strong intelligence information about imminent threats to US national security. “It is important to note that that this section does not put forward vetted conclusions, but rather unverified leads that were later fully investigated by the intelligence community,” he said.

“I know that the release of these pages will not end the debate over the issue, but it will quiet rumors over the contents — as is often the case, the reality is less damaging than the uncertainty,” added Rep. Adam Schiff of California, a member of the House Intelligence Committee. He said the committee had directly investigated with Saudi government officials, after the attacks, about planning or assisting in its implementation, but did not obtain any sufficient evidence supporting such conspiracies.

“This is not the end,” added former Sen. Bob Graham, who had led efforts to release the papers, pointing out his desire to keep investigations going.

“Most of what we know about the attackers reached us from the investigations offices in southern California, which is what the 29-pages focused on, whereas two-thirds of those involved in the attacks were living in Florida and we do know all the details until know regarding their funding and assistance,” he said.

In turn, White House spokesman John Ernst said in a press conference on Friday that the papers do not shed any new light or change any outcomes about who was responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks, and that the government was keen on releasing these papers due to its obligation to transparency, especially in a sensitive issue that affects national security. He said the information included in the report does not change the American government’s position, which is that there is no evidence pointing to the involvement of the Saudi government or any of its officials in supporting Al-Qaeda to carry out these terrorist attacks.

At least 6,000 people have been arrested across Turkey over alleged ties to Friday’s coup attempt, Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said Sunday.

The government previously said around 3,000 military personnel had been arrested and last night a senior prosecutor ordered the arrest of nearly 2,750 judges accused of links to exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen.

“The legal process will continue,” Bozdag said on state-run broadcaster TRT. “This will be the most extensive case ever seen in Turkey’s history.”

He promised that those involved in the failed coup would “pay the price”.

Turkey has blamed the attempted coup on followers of US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, who is accused of a long-standing campaign to overthrow the government through supporters within the Turkish state, particularly the military, police and judiciary.

Bozdag repeated President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s call for the US to extradite Gulen.

“Protecting [Gulen] will weaken the US’s position and damage its reputation,” he said. “I presume the US will not back someone who carried out these acts against Turkey.”

The coup saw 265 people killed around the country.

Original article

By Ashima Kaul*

According to the Press Trust of India report in April 2015, the Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh asked the then-Chief Minister, Mufti Mohammed Syeed, to identify land for composite townships for Kashmiri Pandits, a minority Hindu community living in exile. There are approximately 62,000 registered families outside the Valley.

Singh was assured by Syeed that the Jammu and Kashmir government would acquire and provide land at the earliest possible time as the state government is committed to an ‘Agenda of Alliance’ document between the BJP and PDP to form the government in the state, which aims at “protecting and fostering ethnic and religious diversity by ensuring the return of Kashmiri Pandits with dignity based on their rights as state subjects and reintegrating as well as absorbing them in the Kashmir milieu.”

However, rejecting the idea, Shailendra Aima, the Vice Chairperson of the Panun Kashmir Pandit political organisation seeking a Homeland for Pandits in the Valley, said: “Pandits have an equal right to the land of Kashmir and to develop it according to their own wishes. They also have a right to reject living in a milieu dominated by Islamists.”

Last month, Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti once again reiterated in the Assembly the government’s commitment to bringing the Pandits back. She said: “As of now we cannot put them like pigeons among the cats”.

Opinion divided

The announcement elicited a massive show of strength by separatist groups in Kashmir who called for a complete shutdown in the Valley, marked by street protests and demonstrations. Pandits found the resistance questionable and the allegation by separatists bizarre that the government had an ulterior motive in ‘setting up of Israeli like settlements in Palestine to change the demography’. They felt it was a part of a sinister design to thwart any initiatives for their return.

Public opinion was divided both in Valley and within the Pandit community. The majority of Muslims rejected the idea of ‘ghettos’, on the basis that it would polarise Kashmiri society and go against Kashmiriyat – the ethos of communal brotherhood.

Pandits rejected it because they did not wish to become sitting ducks in exclusive townships without trust and confidence from the majority community.

However, a section also vehemently asserted that they will choose when and how to return, meaning that while a return to their homeland is their birth right, it is by no means justice for them.

Justice would only prevail if the “genocide is acknowledged and their perpetrators are punished,” says Aima. He adds, “Pandit return is a question of justice that delivers on the larger question of their religious cleansing and exile, therefore is stringent on perpetrators.”

In the meantime, the nomenclature for the proposed townships was changed by the government from composite to ‘transit townships’, a foothold for the Pandits to eventually return to their own homes in the Valley.

A conflict history

In 1990, Kashmiri Pandits, a minority Hindu community in Kashmir, had to leave their homes when members from the community were selectively targeted, killed and raped. The perpetrators used religious spaces like local mosques, local press and hit lists pasted in public places to intimidate and terrorise Pandits to either join the struggle for independence from India, or leave Kashmir.

In the wake of recent renewed overtures by the government and public outcries, The Long Dream of Home, a compilation of Kashmiri Pandit narratives by Siddhartha Gigoo and Varad Sharma recounts the horrifying experiences of Kashmiri Pandit families.

The book describes painful narratives of the personal journeys of survivors from their homes in Kashmir to a life of exile in ‘migrant camps’ in Jammu and elsewhere in the country.

The stories foreground the sequence of events as they actually unfolded, dismantling what the Pandits believe are the myths and lies that have been constructed. These allege that Governor Jagmohan, who had taken over the administration of the state in January 1990, facilitated the exodus of Pandits so that the armed rebellion could be crushed and Muslims taught a lesson.

“At home we don’t talk about Kashmir. My wife is addicted to TV serial Zindagi (Life). I have nothing to do with television – I write or read,” responds Arvind Gigoo to my hesitant query: “Have you been able to reconcile?”

Meet Gigoo

It was a scorching 43 degrees when I went to meet Gigoo – one of the thirty contributors to the book – in his Roop Nagar Jammu home, the only home he has now.

“I was mentally in a daze to be separated from my land, home and society and could not reconcile to the fact that, we have left our ancestral home in Kashmir. But something clicked within me after 10-12 days of despair. I knew if I have to survive in this life, I will have to reconcile. And in half a minute I transformed. My mind accepted the new situation. Now, I live a life of a rote, like a robot, I do things that I did ten summers ago, knowing that after ten summers I will be doing the same things. Somewhere deep within life has come to standstill but like the TV serial it goes on,” his voice trails off.

While Gigoo and many like him have reconciled to their life in exile, they are not yet ready to reconcile with their life in Kashmir. I asked if he would go back.

“No I will never go back! I cannot live there!” and in a sudden unusual repulsion he scoffed, “I hate that koocha- the lane, architecture and smell of that place.”

There was silence and it then seemed he wanted to qualify his sentiments and emotional outburst: “We did not leave Kashmir, even after my friend was killed and most Pandits had left. Then one day a Muslim friend asked me whether I was associated with the Indian Intelligence agency. That was my undoing. My friend Hassan’s query had snapped something within.” Gigoo tells me.

Gigoo vividly recalls that his father sat in front of him weeping: “Unmindful I lit a cigarette, an unthinkable action in front of my father. My wife was shocked! I decided to leave the next day,” he says.

Gigoo’s own narrative, Days of Parting, mentions another friend, Quereshi, who tells him, “zadi would have been the best thing. Pandit is a venomous snake.”

It’s been 26 years since then and what was broken was not merely trust between friends and neighbors but a shriveled sense of identity. To be reduced to a label, to be scorned by someone with whom one has the deepest affiliation is a debilitating experience.

Reconciliation: a challenge or a dream?

The pain of isolation and abandonment lives in the Muslim heart too. When Gigoo went to clear his debts with a local Muslim shopkeeper, Yasin refused to take back the money.

“He sobbed and told me that you Pandits have betrayed us,” an expression borne out of love and expectation rather than treachery. Many Muslims long for Pandits to return to the Valley.

What must be understood in context of the tragic Pandit–Muslim, love-hate relationship is that there is the bitter reality of political ideologies that positions them as opponents, rather than supporters of each other. One abides by the idea of India as pluralistic, liberal, and democratic, and the other by the idea of a Muslim nation and separateness from India. Both are split vertically through a religious fault line.

Of course there is a Muslim constituency in Kashmir that swears by the ‘Kashmiriyat ethos’ – of brotherhood and syncretic values. However, politically and institutionally this is a weak, silent and passive constituency. The other is more organised, controls the opinion, discourse and narrative through variety of means including the gun. This perhaps makes reconciliation a challenging ‘dream’ to follow. Nevertheless, this dream shouldn’t be abandoned on the sacrificial political alter.

While there is a government in place advocating for peace, development, the return of Pandits and most importantly is politically challenging both separatism and communalism, the reality on the ground is that the property of Kashmiri Pandits has been sold, vandalised or occupied. Hence the government has no other alternative than to acquire land and construct new houses for Pandits.

Whether it will succumb to separatist and opposition dictates and whether the Pandits will go back to live in the intimidating environment will purely depend on how the security situation unfolds in the Valley.

Clearly, the return of Pandits is not only about reconciliation between Hindus and Muslims, but about the humanr rights of the exiled community. Now is the time perhaps when Pandit human rights issues, which the civil society organisations in Kashmir Valley have very ardently taken in the case of security forces violations, can also be taken up by local Muslim organisations and community to tangibly show their earnest intent to bring the Pandits back. By speaking out and demanding justice for the minority community, the majority community will be making a gesture which might open a doorway to future reconciliation.

About the author:
*Ashima coordinates the organisation Yakjah in their work in Jammu and Kashmir. An independent journalist by profession, she has an active interest in interfaith dialogue.

Source:
This article was published by Insight on Conflict

A new type of HIV drug currently being tested works in an unusual way, scientists in the Molecular Medicine Partnership Unit, a collaboration between EMBL and Heidelberg University Hospital, have found. They also discovered that when the virus became resistant to early versions of these drugs, it did not do so by blocking or preventing their effects, but rather by circumventing them. The study, published online in Science, presents the most detailed view yet of part of the immature form of HIV.

HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, comes in two forms: immature and mature. The immature form is assembled inside an infected person’s cells. After an immature virus particle has left the cell, it has to change into the mature form before it can infect other human cells. A new group of drugs that inhibit this maturation is currently undergoing clinical trials, but so far it was unclear how exactly these drugs act.

To go from immature to mature, HIV has to cut the connections between its main building blocks, and rearrange those pieces. John Briggs’ lab at EMBL and Hans-Georg Kräusslich’s lab at Heidelberg University Hospital looked at a particularly important cutting point. It connects building blocks known as the capsid protein and the spacer peptide 1, and if it is not cut, the virus cannot mature. The scientists used a combination of cryo-electron tomography and subtomogram averaging to reveal exactly what this part of the immature form of HIV looks like in 3D. They found that the cutting site is hidden in a position where the virus’ cutting machinery can’t sever it. So for the virus to mature, the structure first has to change, to expose that cutting point.

“When we looked at the virus with one of these inhibitor drugs on it, we found that the inhibitor doesn’t prevent the cutting machinery from getting in, as you might expect,” said Florian Schur, who carried out the work in Briggs’ lab. “Rather, the drug locks the immature virus structure in place, so that it can’t be cut.”

When the new inhibitor drugs were first developed, scientists found that HIV viruses with certain mutations in their genetic sequence were unaffected by the drugs – they were resistant. Having determined what the cutting point looks like and how the drugs act, Briggs and colleagues are now able to understand the effects of those mutations.

“Rather than stopping the drug from binding, the virus becomes resistant through mutations that destabilise the immature structure,” said Kräusslich. “This allows it to rearrange and be cut even when the drug is in place.”

The researchers would now like to probe the virus and the inhibitor drugs in even greater detail, to understand exactly how the drugs attach themselves to the viral proteins, and potentially gather data that could help to search for better drugs – or to design them.

The method used in this study – combined cryo-electron tomography and subtomogram averaging – enables scientists to study structures inside irregular viruses like HIV, or within cells. In essence, the scientists use an electron microscope to obtain a 3D image of the sample – in this case, whole HIV-1 particles. They then identify all the copies of the object they want to study – all the instances of the capsid protein-spacer peptide 1 cutting point – and use software to rotate the 3D image of each copy so that they are all facing the same way.

By repeating this procedure with thousands of images, the scientists can obtain an accurate picture. With this approach, researchers can study such samples without having to purify them in a test-tube, which means that they see them in their real state. The EMBL scientists’ work now proves that the method can provide the level of detail that is crucial to understanding how molecular machines work and to informing drug design.

By Ja’far Haghpanah*

Analysis of Turkey’s botched coup attempt is very important not simply because of geographical and spiritual propinquity of this incident to our country as well as cultural, social, political, economic and security ties between Turkey and Iran, but also because of its regional consequences and its effects on Iran’s interests and national security. The following points must be taken into consideration in this regard:

A) Of utmost importance is analysis of this incident with regard to its cause, trends, and outcomes on the basis of objective realities and while avoiding illusional speculations like considering the coup attempt as a conspiracy designed by the government of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or any other government. Turkey, like other modern societies, is too complicated to be able to resort to such naïve social engineering attempts.

B) In the absence of governmental media, which had come under control of coup plotters, social networks and civil institutions played an effective role in the failure of the coup plot. Through dissemination of information as well as enlightenment, organization and encouragement of people to put up their unique resistance against the coup attempt, such media turned the massive presence of people on the streets, which could have led to intensification of chaos, into a social network consisting of citizens, who were aware of conditions and their own demands.

C) Of course, the failed attempt by the military in Turkey is also reflexive of fragility of political stability and democracy in a country, which once had a claim to turning into an ideal model of development and governance for the entire region. However, mention should be made of the effective role played by the civil society in this country, which for the first time in the past five decades, foiled the fifth attempt by the military to interfere in the field of politics. Comparative study of the recent bungled coup attempt in Turkey with the successful coup d’état, which took place in Egypt just two years ago, would be didactic.

D) Factors, which despite some imbalanced economic and scientific advances, ushered Turkey toward serious instability included the country’s adventurous behavior in foreign policy, especially with regard to the crisis in Syria, on the one hand, and emergence of political blockage, reduced solidarity inside the country and intensification of social gaps, especially ethnic and religious gaps, on the other hand, which finally pushed the Turkish society toward polarization and prompted some marginalized groups and elites to embark on the coup.

E) Iran’s governmental and nongovernmental media as well as social media paid good attention to this incident. Although Turkey’s coup attempt coincided with the catastrophic terrorist attack in France and while Iran’s people and the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran were sympathizing with survivors of the terrorist attack in the French city of Nice, the principle of propinquity and close relations between the two countries’ issues and concerns stirred extensive and rapid reactions to this incident in our country. At the same time, it must be noted that due to weakness of direct communications between the two neighboring countries, the regular problem of being fed by Western media was quite evident in this case as well.

F) Existence of instability and unrest in neighboring regions and neighboring countries, such as Turkey, could be of no benefit to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The experience gained through regional developments, which unraveled in the past few decades, shows that regardless of some costly opportunities, which have been ephemeral, instability in the region has in most cases led to increased intervention by foreign forces and has only increased political and national costs for our country in the long run.

G) The timely reaction shown by Iran’s state officials and media, along with expression of concern combined with condemnation of the coup attempt and announcement of support for restoration of order and stability to the neighboring country of Turkey, was a necessary step, which was taken. Rapid action in this case not only elucidated our country’s basic position in the face of such unprincipled and antidemocratic measures, but also striped hostile currents and rival government of the opportunity to take advantage of this incident and attribute it to the Islamic Republic of Iran in any way.

In conclusion, it must be noted that despite Iran’s clear and basic criticism of Turkey’s regional approaches and in spite of the rivalry between the two countries in Iraq and Syria and also regardless of recent reestablishment of relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv, it was proven that such issues are not taken as a basis for the regulation of our country’s relations with neighboring governments.

During recent months and following appointment of the country’s new prime minister, Binali Yildirim, Ankara has taken a U-turn in its foreign policy, which has raised hopes about Turkey coming up with new regional initiatives and promoting bilateral cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran in order to reduce tensions in the region, especially with regard to the current crisis in Syria.

*Ja’far Haghpanah, Assistant Professor of Regional Studies at the University of Tehran, Iran

A team of hundreds of physicists and astronomers have announced results from the largest-ever, three-dimensional map of distant galaxies. The team constructed this map to make one of the most precise measurements yet of the dark energy currently driving the accelerated expansion of the Universe.

“We have spent five years collecting measurements of 1.2 million galaxies over one quarter of the sky to map out the structure of the Universe over a volume of 650 cubic billion light years,” said Jeremy Tinker of New York University, a co-leader of the scientific team carrying out this effort. “This map has allowed us to make the best measurements yet of the effects of dark energy in the expansion of the Universe. We are making our results and map available to the world.”

These new measurements were carried out by the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) program of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-III. Shaped by a continuous tug-of-war between dark matter and dark energy, the map revealed by BOSS allows scientists to measure the expansion rate of the Universe and thus determine the amount of matter and dark energy that make up the present-day Universe. A collection of papers describing these results was submitted this week to the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

BOSS measures the expansion rate of the Universe by determining the size of the baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) in the three-dimensional distribution of galaxies. The original BAO size is determined by pressure waves that travelled through the young Universe up to when it was only 400,000 years old (the Universe is presently 13.8 billion years old), at which point they became frozen in the matter distribution of the Universe.

The end result is that galaxies have a slight preference to be separated by a characteristic distance that astronomers call the acoustic scale. The size of the acoustic scale at 13.4 billion years ago has been exquisitely determined from observations of the cosmic microwave background from the light emitted when the pressure waves became frozen. Measuring the distribution of galaxies since that time allows astronomers to measure how dark matter and dark energy have competed to govern the rate of expansion of the Universe.

“We’ve made the largest map for studying the 95% of the universe that is dark,” noted David Schlegel, an astrophysicist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and principal investigator for BOSS. “In this map, we can see galaxies being gravitationally pulled towards other galaxies by dark matter. And on much larger scales, we see the effect of dark energy ripping the universe apart.”

Shirley Ho, an astrophysicist at Berkeley Lab and Carnegie Mellon University (CMU), co-led two of the companion papers and added, “We can now measure how much the galaxies and stars cluster together as a function of time to such an accuracy we can test General Relativity at cosmological scales.”

Ariel Sanchez of the Max-Planck Institute of Extraterrestrial Physics led the effort to estimate the exact amount of dark matter and dark energy based on the BOSS data and explains: “Measuring the acoustic scale across cosmic history gives a direct ruler with which to measure the Universe’s expansion rate. With BOSS, we have traced the BAO’s subtle imprint on the distribution of galaxies spanning a range of time from 2 to 7 billion years ago.”

To measure the size of these ancient giant waves to such sharp precision, BOSS had to make an unprecedented and ambitious galaxy map, many times larger than previous surveys. At the time the BOSS program was planned, dark energy had been previously determined to significantly influence the expansion of the Universe starting about 5 billion years ago. BOSS was thus designed to measure the BAO feature from before this point (7 billion years ago) out to near the present day (2 billion years ago).

Jose Vazquez of Brookhaven National Laboratory combined the BOSS results with other surveys and searched for any evidence of unexplained physical phenomena in the results. “Our latest results tie into a clean cosmological picture, giving strength to the standard cosmological model that has emerged over the last eighteen years.”

Rita Tojeiro of the University of St. Andrews is the other co-leader of the BOSS galaxy clustering working group along with Tinker. “We see a dramatic connection between the sound wave im-prints seen in the cosmic microwave background 400,000 years after the Big Bang to the clustering of galaxies 7-12 billion years later. The ability to observe a single well-modeled physical effect from recombination until today is a great boon for cosmology.”

The map also reveals the distinctive signature of the coherent movement of galaxies toward regions of the Universe with more matter, due to the attractive force of gravity. Crucially, the observed amount of infall is explained well by the predictions of general relativity.

“The results from BOSS provide a solid foundation for even more precise future BAO measurements, such as those we expect from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI),” said Natalie Roe, Physics Division director at Berkeley Lab. “DESI will construct a more detailed 3-dimensional map in a volume of space ten times larger to precisely characterize dark energy — and ultimately the future of our universe.”

Children as young as 9 months-old prefer to play with toys specific to their own gender, according to a new study from academics at City University London and UCL.

The paper, which is published in the journal of Infant and Child Development, shows that in a familiar nursery environment significant sex differences were evident at an earlier age than gendered identity is usually demonstrated.

The research therefore suggests the possibility that boys and girls follow different developmental trajectories with respect to selection of gender-typed toys and that there is both a biological and a developmental-environmental components to the sex differences seen in object preferences.

To investigate the gender preferences seen with toys, the researchers observed the toy preferences of boys and girls engaged in independent play in UK nurseries, without the presence of a parent. The toys used in the study were a doll, a pink teddy bear and a cooking pot for girls, while for boys a car, a blue teddy, a digger and a ball were used.

The 101 boys and girls fell into three age groups: 9 to 17 months, when infants can first demonstrate toy preferences in independent play (N=40); 18 to 23 months, when critical advances in gender knowledge occur (N=29); and 24 to 32 months, when knowledge becomes further established (N=32).

Stereotypical toy preferences were found for boys and girls in each of the age groups, demonstrating that sex differences in toy preference appear early in development. Both boys and girls showed a trend for an increasing preference with age for toys stereotyped for boys.

Speaking about the study, Dr Brenda Todd, a senior lecturer in psychology at City University said, “Sex differences in play and toy choice are of interest in relation to child care, educational practice and developmental theory. Historically there has been uncertainty about the origins of boys’ and girls’ preferences for play with toys typed to their own sex and the developmental processes that underlie this behaviour. As a result we set out to find out whether a preference occurs and at what age it develops.

“Biological differences give boys an aptitude for mental rotation and more interest and ability in spatial processing, while girls are more interested in looking at faces and better at fine motor skills and manipulating objects. When we studied toy preference in a familiar nursery setting with parents absent, the differences we saw were consistent with these aptitudes. Although there was variability between individual children, we found that, in general, boys played with male-typed toys more than female-typed toys and girls played with female-typed toys more than male-typed toys.

“Our results show that there are significant sex differences across all three age groups, with the finding that children in the youngest group, who were aged between 9–17months when infants are able to crawl or walk and therefore make independent selections, being particularly interesting; the ball was a favourite choice for the youngest boys and the youngest girls favoured the cooking pot.”

Researchers at the UPV/EHU-University of the Basque Country have studied the changes that take place in fish lipids and in the oil during frying processes

The frying techniques, the nature of the oil used and the fish species have been shown to exert a great influence on the changes that take place during the process. UPV/EHU researchers have shown that the choice of cooking oil is hugely important owing to its impact on the lipid profile in the fish and on the possible generation of toxic compounds in the oil during frying, which can influence food safety and human health.

The journal Food Research International has published the article ‘The influence of frying technique, cooking oil and fish species on the changes occurring in fish lipids and oil during shallow-frying, studied by H-1 NMR’, which deals with the work carried out by Bárbara Nieva-Echevarría, Encarnación Goicoechea, María José Manzanos and María Dolores Guillén. To conduct this research, fillets of European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) were shallow-fried in a frying plan and in a microwave oven using extra virgin olive oil and refined sunflower oil. The changes that took place in the lipid composition of the fish and of the frying oil were studied by means of Proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Imaging (H-1 NMR).

Migration of lipid components between the fish and the frying oil

During the shallow-frying of the fish under domestic conditions, not only do the fish lipids migrate to the frying oil, the components of the oil are also transferred to the fillet of fish. As a result, the composition of the oil used for frying is modified: firstly, it is enriched by the acyl groups (‘fatty acids’) that are present in a higher concentration in the fish fat than in the original oil, and secondly, and simultaneously, it is depleted in the acyl groups present in a higher concentration in the original oil than in the fish fat. So after having been used for frying, the extra virgin olive oil was richer in omega-3, omega-1 acyl groups, linoleic and saturated fats (from the fish) and poorer in oleic, which is the main acyl group in olive oil. Likewise, after having been used for frying, the sunflower oil was richer in all the acyl group types (coming from the fish) except linoleic, which is the majority acyl group in sunflower oil. Furthermore, after frying, both types of oil were enriched by small amounts of cholesterol (from the fish).

As regards the fat in the fish fillets, its composition also changed during the frying process, and became enriched by the acyl groups present in a higher concentration in the frying oil than in the fillet (in other words, oleic if extra virgin olive oil was used, or linoleic if sunflower oil was used) and in plant sterols. Simultaneously, during the frying process the lipids in the fish fillets were depleted in the acyl groups and minority components present in a greater concentration in the raw fillet than in the original oils, such as, for example, the omega-3 docosahexaenoic (DHA) and eicosapentaenoic (EPA) polyunsaturated groups.

Thermal oxidation reaction

Besides the migration of lipids during frying, because these oils are subjected to high temperatures (170 ºC) in the presence of oxygen, certain small-scale thermal oxidation may take place in them. In the extra virgin olive oil used for frying fish, this thermal oxidation reaction did not occur as it is more degradation-resistant than sunflower oil. Yet in the sunflower oil used for frying fish in the frying pan, secondary oxidation compounds (aldehydes) were formed; some of them are regarded as potentially toxic depending on the concentration in which they are found. It should be pointed out that these compounds did not form in the sunflower oil used to fry the fish in the microwave oven. Therefore, in view of the results obtained and bearing in mind the generation of these compounds that are potentially harmful for health, the healthiest option for frying is to use extra virgin olive and fry in the microwave.

Fat content of the fried fish

The fish species used was also seen to be a factor that considerably influences the fat absorption-desorption process during frying. The fat content of the gilthead seabream had diminished after frying while that of the European seabass remained similar or increased with respect to the starting level.

This study shows that the frying technique, the type of oil used and the fish species exert a great influence on the changes that take place during the frying process. Correctly selecting the oil is of paramount importance owing to its impact on the final composition of the fat in the cooked fillet and the possible generation of potentially toxic compounds in the oil during the frying process, which will greatly influence food safety and human health.

During the month of Ramzan, when Muslims were focused on fasting and prayer, it is unfortunate that huge violence took place in Kashmir, with stone throwing and pistol wielding mob attacking the police stations and setting fire to public buildings. The violence was reported to have taken place, as the Indian army spotted a young person who was propagating separate Kashmir and indulging in violent activities and he was killed by the Indian army in a shoot out. When violence took place at such a scale , Kashmir police and Indian army had no alternative other than imposing curfew.

When the mob indulged in violence and the authorities tried to enforce the law, forty people lost their lives and many more were injured. Government of India conveyed it’s regret about the deaths and even advised the army and police to observe restraint ,even when the violent mob would be in full cry. Certainly, government of India was concerned .

How such large scale violence organized?

Many Indians wonder as to how such scale of violence took place which was obviously well organized with weapons readily in the hands of mob. Many people suspected that outside elements and infiltrators who came across the border could have been involved in organizing violence, that brought unrest in the valley and drew international attention to the disturbance in Kashmir.

Why Pakistan extended sympathy to the violent elements in Kashmir?

What shocked everyone in India and other parts of the world is the alacrity and speed with which the government of Pakistan officially expressed sympathy to the separatist forces who provoked the unrest and violence in Kashmir and it condemned government of India for using force to put down the violence and restore peace. Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Shariff openly voiced his support to those in Kashmir who were agitating for separate state.

Pakistan itself a victim of terrorism

The fact is that Pakistan itself has been a victim of terrorist acts, when many innocent people have been killed in Pakistan in recent times. The shooting down of more than 60 school students by terrorists in Pakistan will stay in the memory of the world for long time to come. Many countries suspect that Pakistan soil is being used by the terrorist groups and government of Pakistan is unable to check them. United States of America is frequently conducting drone attack to destroy the centre of activities of militants in Pakistan, possibly with the approval of the government of Pakistan.

In recent times, Pakistan has suffered enormously both in terms of economic and social progress due to the terrorist activities, apart from the fact that it has lost considerable reputation. The fact that no country in the world is even willing to send sports teams to Pakistan clearly indicate the state of affairs.

Need for peace in Pakistan

It is in the short term and long term interests of Pakistan that it should put down terrorism on it’s soil. Obviously, this means that it should not encourage terrorism anywhere else. Peace is essential pre condition for Pakistan to regain it’s glory and forge ahead. The outbursts of Prime Minister of Pakistan encouraging the separatists in Kashmir make one suspect that he has not understood this basic necessity for Pakistan. If Prime Minister of Pakistan wants peace in his country, he has to necessarily call for peace everywhere else.

Today, the ground reality is that some portion of Kashmir is in the control of Pakistan which India calls it as Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Rest of Kashmir is part of India which Pakistan terms as India occupied Kashmir. This conflict will never be over, unless the leadership of both the countries realise the compulsive need for cooperation, understanding and mutual good will.

Gesture for peace

Recently, Prime Minister Modi made an extraordinary gesture by making surprise visit to Pakistan to greet Mr. Nawaz Shariff on his family wedding day. Mr. Modi’s initiative was applauded by the peace lovers all over the world including those in India and Pakistan. It takes long time to build the peace process and Mr. Modi took significant step to strengthen the process.

The support extended by Pakistan to the separatists in Kashmir during the recent violence in Kashmir has created a situation , where all the good will that was built between both the countries by the gesture of Mr. Modi have been wiped out in one stroke.

Many in India and Pakistan want peace

All said and done, there are millions of Indians and Pakistanis who have the wisdom to understand the need for cooperation and harmony between both the countries. Unfortunately, the will of the people are not influencing the leadership; in the present context of Kashmir scenario, the leadership in Pakistan.

An armed group seized a police station in Armenia’s capital Yerevan, killing one person and wounding at least three others.

According to new reports, at least six hostages were being held by the attackers.

PanArmenian.net is reporting that, “As of 5:00 pm (local time), Sunday, July 17, an armed group was still holding several policemen hostage,” citing Armenia’s National Statistical Service said.

According to PanArmenian.net, state authorities have urged the gunmen “to refrain from steps that would threaten the lives of people, release the hostages, lay down arms and surrender to the authorities.”

The special forces remain in a state of operational readiness at the scene, the NSS said, although no command for an attack or any other activity has been given to them, PanArmenian.net said.

RT is reporting the local police chief, Valery Osipyan, is among the hostages.

Pakistan moved nearer last month to join a regional, security and economic coalition led by China and Russia, a move seen to enhance the importance of the organization. Pakistan has become full member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) after signing Memorandum of Obligations (MoOs) in SCO’s Heads of State Summit at Tashkent. Pakistan has been an observer at SCO since 2005. It has been a regular contributor in the meetings of SCO and was the first SCO observer to apply for full membership in 2010. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was created in June 2001, comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The recent approval of granting permanent membership has raised many hopes about the future of cooperation and tenacity of many persisting disputes and the critical issues which have been a bone of contention in the South Asian region.

Present era is era of connectivity, so we can rightly interpret that SCO expansion is timely and Pakistan will be looking to play an important role in the region. Pakistan’s insertion in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) would be advantageous for the whole region. Pakistan’s geostrategic location allows it to become a source for regional economic incorporation among the SCO member states. The expansion would enable the organization to prevent extra-regional pressures. With Pakistan’s eternal membership and enormous experience in the context, new measures and joint projects can also be taken for countering violent radicalism in the region.

Pakistan had attained excellent success in the internationally highly praised operation ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ and could share precious knowledge with the SCO member states. Pakistan’s role and experience as a frontline state in combating terrorism and extremism, which can be an asset to the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) and the Regional Counter Terrorism Structure (RCTS). With the addition of Pakistan, the collective efforts by member states to counter terrorism and violent extremism will attain an important ally, as we have been effectively countering this menace for over a decade now. The internationally lauded Operation Zarb-e-Azb, which has reclaimed our national space from terrorists, is a prime example of the successes achieved by Pakistan in this context.

Pakistan permanent membership will help SCO embrace the world and will act like a bridge. From last four decades, Pakistan has suffered the War on terrorism and SCO can play a significant role in erasing the misperceptions about our country surrounding whole the world. It has become obvious particularly in the outcome of the War on Terror, that this part of the globe once again finds itself left to consider with the consequences of an imposed conflict, and to assemble the pieces of societies and structures that have been crushed by decades of conflict.

Economically, Pakistan will be the best medium between SCO countries and the South Asian region, providing the shortest possible trade routes between Central Asia and Iran on the one hand, and the Russian, Chinese and Indian markets on the other. And it will enhance trade itself by tying the region together with new energy corridors. No doubt that Pakistan’s inclusion will inculcate new might into the organization. The country’s entry will open doors of opportunity for all SCO member states. It will boost the organization’s appeal and influence within the international arena, and strengthen its future development, setting it on the path to become a leading regional cooperation organization.

Particularly after Pakistan and India’s membership, if the SCO successfully managed its significant role in bridging relationship of the two nuclear rival neighbors then it would definitely be a sign of turning point to jot down a new history which will of course, encourage and attract many other states to come under the SCO umbrella. Apart from the issue of SCO’s role in the region’s economic development and members’ security issues, a particular emphasize is required for the result oriented efforts to resolve core issues like Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek etc on priority basis. Otherwise even after granting permanent membership to Pakistan and India, the outcome would be no more than a further divide in the Organization particularly by crafting the conception of organization within the organization where two sides would be supported by their respective supporting states.

For that matter, we all need to work for the betterment of the country and be proud of what we have achieved by being part of the SCO Forum. We must take the first collective step towards diminishing the distances and misunderstandings between us, and work towards the betterment and prosperity of entire region. It was a long wait but is worth it. Thus the much-awaited expansion of SCO would provide great opportunities to Pakistan keeping in view its geo-political, geo-strategic and geo-economic features and engagements.

*Saima Ali works for Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad and can be reached at saima@thesvi.org

By Tridivesh Singh Maini

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s four nation Africa trip from July 7-11 came at an important time. India-Africa ties have witnessed a significant transformation thanks to the increasing economic synergies between both. This point is strongly reinforced by the fact that trade was estimated at USD 72 Billion as of 2015, up from 30 Billion in 2008. At the political level too, engagement has witnessed a steady rise.

In June 2016, President Pranab Mukherjee toured Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and Namibia, while in May 2016, Vice President Hamid Ansari visited Morocco and Tunisia. Modi began his Africa tour with Mozambique (July 7) and then traveled to South Africa (July 8-9), Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania (July 10) with his last stop in Kenya (July 11). In October 2015, India hosted the India-Africa Forum Summit in New Delhi, where representatives from all 54 African countries and 40 heads of state and government attended this mega event-cum-interaction.

While the India-Africa relationship has witnessed significant positives, there have been a number of hiccups. There were strong reactions from a number of African envoys in the aftermath of the murder of a Congolese citizen, Masonda Ketada Oliver who was bludgeoned to death in New Delhi. This was followed by attacks on a Nigerian student in Hyderabad.

‘Soft power’ has played an important role in ties between India and the outside world, especially with Africa, and one aspect of this soft power has been the African students in India.

It is estimated that there are 25,000 African students in private and government universities in India. Notably, one of the important decisions taken during the India-Africa Forum Summit in October 2015 was to increase the number of scholarships provided to African students. The murder and attacks on Africans residing in India caused immense damage to the relationship, with most African envoys even threatening to boycott the Africa day celebrations.

It required deft handling from the External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj to defuse the tensions, though some Ministers, including the Culture and Tourism Minister Mahesh Sharma, made some unnecessary statements.

If one were to look at the thrust of the visit that will be undertaken by the Prime Minister, there is likely to be an emphasis on accelerating development assistance, working together on multilateral forums on issues pertaining to terrorism and the environment, enhancing cooperation in the spheres of energy and agriculture as well as greater maritime cooperation.

The Indian Prime Minister discussed the progress of current projects being funded by India, and deepen cooperation in areas like Information Technology (IT) and medicine where India has an advantage, and which can immensely benefit Africa.

If one were to look at energy cooperation, this was high on the agenda during the PM’s Mozambique visit. Mozambique President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi had signed an MOU for expanding cooperation during his visit to India in August 2015, this was taken forward subsequently during the India-Africa Forum Summit and by Minister of state for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Dharmendra Pradhan during his visit to Mozambique in April 2016.

During the PM’s Tanzania and Kenya visit greater Agricultural Cooperation was on the agenda since India and Africa have been exploring ways of cooperation for food security and strengthening agricultural synergies. India can address its own food shortages by assisting in increasing the level of agricultural production of pulses and edible oils. Agriculture Minister, Radha Mohan Singh while addressing the India-Africa Agribusiness Forum had stated:

“Can we think of a dispensation that where Indian companies can consider investing in Africa for growing pulses and edible oils, which are in short in supply in India. Similarly, African businesses can think of engaging mutually beneficial collaborators in India”.

The issue of greater maritime cooperation and enhancing linkages through the Blue Economy was also of importance. During the Indo-African Summit in October 2015, the Prime Minister had referred to both aspects. With Mozambique there is immense potential for cooperation since both India and Mozambique have vast coastlines and are connected by the Indian Ocean.

Finally, both sides explored possible cooperation in the sphere of counter-terrorism. The Al Shabab Group was responsible for the dastardly attack on Westgate Mall, Nairobi, Kenya 2013.

In Johannesburg, South Africa and Nairobi Kenya, Modi addressed the Indian Diaspora. Modi also met members of the Diaspora in Maputo (Mozambique) and Tanzania.

It is tough to talk about India’s approach towards Africa without comparisons with China. While it is true that there are a number of advantages which India has, not just in the context of strong historical ties, but also the fact that Indian businesses are relatively popular since they generate local employment and benefit local economies more, India’s financial assistance has been witnessing an increase. India has implemented 137 projects in 41 countries without seeming to be obtrusive or patronizing; the same cannot be said about China though.

Yet, there is no doubt that India needs to pull up its socks. Firstly, India’s engagement with Africa has fallen behind China with India-Africa bilateral trade estimated at 70 Billion USD, while China’s trade with Africa is estimated at 200 Billion USD.

Second, while there is no doubt that India’s financial assistance for Africa has less conditionalities. The LOC’s are not utilized because of turf wars between Ministries and a convoluted process for getting approvals. India has extended concessional credit lines worth USD 7.4 billion, less than 6.8 Billion were approved and 3.5 Billion disbursed as of October 2015, this issue was raised by a number of leaders during last year’s India-Africa Summit.

Third, India needs to expand its outreach to Africa and not restrict it to Southern and Eastern African shores alone. This has been the tendency thus far, due to historic ties, a substantial Diaspora population and the fact that India works jointly with South Africa in multilateral setting. In the recent years, ties with other parts of Africa have also intensified and there is a desire to broaden engagement with the continent as is evident from the India-Africa Summit in October 2015. Yet, a number of African countries complain of neglect and of India’s policy being centered around a few African countries.

It is important to address this issue if India needs to strengthen economic ties with the region. One possible way could be involving state governments especially those such as Andhra Pradesh, whose economic ties with Africa are strengthening, apart from this states such as Gujarat and Punjab which have sizeable diasporas in Africa should also work jointly with New Delhi. Greater interactions with state governments are also important to increase awareness about Africa, since a number of students study in private universities outside Delhi. A number of African envoys have been pro-active in reaching out to state governments and universities beyond the national capital.

In conclusion, India needs to improve its implementation of projects and use its soft power effectively in Africa, mere goodwill by itself is not enough. Promises need to be backed by action.

*Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi based policy analyst associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs, Sonipat. He can be reached at: tsmaini@jgu.edu.in

By C Uday Bhaskar*

The successful induction of the first two Tejas light combat aircraft (LCA) into the Indian Air Force provides the appropriate backdrop to the recent announcement of the Narendra Modi government to allow 100 percent foreign direct investment (FDI) in the defence sector.

This policy announcement is being heralded as the fillip that India’s moribund military indigenization effort needs and that very soon ‘Make in India’ will gain robust traction. However, this is an arduous path and India’s many institutional deficiencies and distinctive cultural traits may make this highly desirable goal more elusive than imagined.

The 100 percent ceiling is not very different from what the previous UPA government had also announced but the many caveats and procedural constraints ensured that the initiative was not very successful by way of attracting foreign capital.

The Tejas success which is to be commended is illustrative of the mindset that has crippled India’s indigenous defence industry for decades. The LCA program wherein India would design and build its own combat aircraft goes back to 1985 and the heady Rajiv Gandhi years. Yet, the reality is that it took 31 years for the first two aircraft to be inducted, albeit in a sub-optimal manner and it merits notice that both the engine and the primary radar are imported.

Could the Tejas have been completed sooner if the 100 percent FDI route had been adopted earlier? And the related question is – will the current 100 percent ceiling make that much needed difference ?

To get a more informed perspective, it may be useful to outline the nature of the intractable defense inventory challenge that has been staring the policy-makers in the face for decades – but the latter have chosen to do an ostrich act with renewed determination – government after government. One hopes that the Modi- (Defence Minister Manohar) Parrikar team will be able to make that difference – but the odds are stacked against them.

The LCA apart, another recent disclosure provides the context for the FDI challenge. The Indian Army, at a little under 1.2 million uniformed personnel. is the second largest in the world and it would stand to reason that the basic weapon for a soldier – a modern rifle – would be readily available.

Yet for decades on end, India has been less than successful in designing and manufacturing its own rifle – and what has been produced – the INSAS is sub-optimal and very often the adversary is better equipped! Currently the Army is reported to be short of as many as 200,000 new generation assault rifles , 160,000 carbines, 16,000 LMG-s and 3,500 sniper rifles for special operations. A scramble is on to redress this gap by looking at foreign suppliers who can also transfer technology – and help make in India.

In short, the inventory gaps are broad spectrum and range from high end platforms and ordnance to basic military requirements that includes ammunition and bullet-proof vests. Yet the Indian higher-defence pyramid was unable to ensure appropriate indigenous design and manufacturing capability even in low technology items.

Consequently India is one of the largest importers of military inventory and Moscow has been a major supplier for decades. In the current fiscal, the defense allocation is about US $ 50 billion of which upto 40 percent goes to the capital budget. Hence over the next decade, India will allocate over $ 200 billion towards acquisition and modernization of its military inventory.

Potentially this is a large allocation – over Rs 13 lakh crores (INR 13,00,000 crores) and ideally, a truly competent and nimble policy-making body would be able to prioritize the requirements and move swiftly towards attracting 100 percent FDI in select sectors. It could be the personal weapon, or a transport aircraft or an artillery gun – or even look at cyber and satellites as the new technologies to be invested in.

But the sad reality is that the Indian higher defence apex is clueless about how best to invest such a large sum of money over a decade plus with foreign participation and add tangible capacity to the military in a sustainable manner. Yes, stove-pipe wish-lists do exist – for instance a mountain strike corps, 126 fighters, more submarines et al. But what is missing is the holistic institutional integrity cum multi-ministry competence that can envisage a national systems engineering equivalent which would be capable of making an objective assessment about what India needs in its military quiver over the next four decades.

Thus the 100 percent FDI ceiling in defence, while being welcome, will have to be preceded by some very rigorous national introspection about assessing existing military inadequacies and astutely identifying sectors that need to be prioritized for the elusive ‘make in and for India objective’.

The ‘holy grail’ of indigenization can be attained only if the vast resources of the DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization) and DPSUs (Defence Public Sector Unit) are dis-aggregated and re-cast on the lines of successful models that exist in countries like Israel or Singapore. A DRDO-centred, incremental approach will not succeed.

Modi needs to reach out to young Indians, like those who shine in Silicon Valley and Google, or those who created Aadhaar, Flipkart and Snapdeal, and mobilize them in the national cause to undertake cutting-edge defence research. The Indian diaspora is a valuable gene pool of defence related talent and commitment to enable India. It needs to be encouraged to be part of the FDI exercise.

Concurrently, train and equip the defence bureaucracy for its onerous responsibilities. With defence budgets likely to shrink, in real terms, there is not only a need for prioritizing requirements projected by the services, but also of ensuring that every rupee is spent with prudence and probity.

This calls for the urgent creation of a cadre, within the Ministry of Defence, composed of civilian and military officers formally trained in equipment selection, technology assessment, acquisition processes, contract negotiation and implementation. Such an initiative can make the critical difference.

*C Uday Bhaskar is Director, Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted at cudaybhaskar@spsindia.in

By Grant Huxham and Emmaline Ivy Johnson*

In an effort to mitigate budgetary shortfalls due to plummeting oil prices, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) plan to implement the new Value Added Tax (VAT) on January 1, 2018 (and to finalize all tax revenue systems and procedures by early 2019). UAE officials claim that VAT will generate USD 3 billion in national revenue during the first year. With health, education and over one hundred food items exempt, they also maintain that this new tax will have minimal impact on consumers.

VAT is a consumption tax by which the government collects revenue on sales and then refunds the tax difference to the seller. This differs from a sales tax, which requires a business to determine the buyer’s intent. If the buyer intends to purchase merchandise, add value, and then resell it, the seller does not need to impose any tax. On the other hand, if the buyer’s intent is to consume the goods in their current state, the opposite is true. This system incentivizes both merchants and consumers to claim that their goods will not be consumed in their current state. VAT is an alternative to sales tax, whereby a tax is charged every time goods are bought and sold. VAT is a temporary payment to the state based on the purchase price that is subsequently refunded after value has been added. This arrangement removes any incentive to inaccurately report consumption because the seller invariably receives a refund. Consumers with no possible refund have no reason to inaccurately report their intended use. In the end, only the consumer is taxed, as is the case with a sales tax.

Direct taxes, like income taxes, necessitate a great amount of institutional framework and preparation. In the UAE, as in other GCC countries, it will likely take years (if not decades) to fully develop and implement VAT. At a rate of 5 percent, VAT slowly introduces the idea of taxation to a region that is accustomed to subsidies and government handouts. In February 2016, Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, declared, “It is time people are made to understand that public services need to be priced. Either a viable pricing mechanism needs be implemented to fund public services or governments can resort to big borrowings, which is not sustainable in the long term.” The UAE is expected to generate revenue from VAT in the sum of 1 to 2 percent of its gross domestic product.

The effect of VAT on UAE consumers will depend on income and spending habits. With essential food items, education, and healthcare exempt, low-income families are unlikely to see a significant difference. As is the case with most economic policies, the middle class will be, over time, affected the most. Consumers in the habit of frequently upgrading their appliances, electronics and automobiles will certainly feel the greatest burden. For them, VAT is unlikely to discourage spending, however, since a tax of USD 50 on a purchase of USD 1,000, while noticeable, is still small. Those in the higher income brackets should not be affected at all.

How will VAT impact the UAE’s tourism sector? Dubai is attractive to high-end travelers for its tax-free shopping. Karen Patel, marketing manager of 2GIS Middle East, argues that because tax-free shopping will no longer exist, we may see a decline in tourist spending. Tourists to the UAE will be charged a 5 percent VAT and then be taxed again when they reach home. Other analysts consider it unlikely that the 5 percent VAT, which is low by international standards, will cause wealthy tourists to rethink purchases. It is also probable that consumption related to tourism may turn out to be ‘zero-rated’ or ‘exempt’ from VAT. GCC officials may decide that VAT will be levied at a ‘zero-rate’ on hotel accommodations, high-end purchases at the duty-free counter and some forms of public transport.

In order to stay afloat economically, the UAE and its fellow GCC members must diversify their sources of revenue. But they must tread carefully. Because their populations are not accustomed to taxation, which is as much a cultural phenomenon as it is an economic one, the 5 percent VAT will allow the UAE to diversify without pushing the mostly expatriate middle class to other markets. Moreover, the absence of an income tax (and exemptions for education and health care) will still allow the UAE to boast tax-free income as an enticement to foreign workers.

Ultimately, the introduction of the VAT is a soothing mechanism, designed to ease taxation upon UAE residents. As oil prices remain low, the GCC will have to continue to diversify and broaden its sources of revenue. The IMF reports that single-digit indirect taxation in the form of VAT is the most viable option for Gulf Arab states in the first stage of taxation, as implementation of direct taxes requires a fairly well developed institutional framework. VAT is by no means the final step, rather just the beginning of inevitable taxation in the UAE and other GCC nations.

Although taxation is fiscal policy considered at the macro-economic level, the implementation of VAT has ramifications also at the micro-economic level with regard to cash flow. VAT is due and payable to the authorities once the sale of goods or delivery of services has occurred, even if the customer has not yet settled the account. Furthermore, VAT is normally payable at the time one imports goods, or when they enter the UAE from a free zone such as JAFZA, necessitating appropriate management of cash resources. The net VAT status of an entity also will impact the measurement of liquidity and debt ratios as measured by the banking system (and may, in fact, require a review and appraisal of existing banking facilities).

Apart from the impact of VAT on cash flows and banking facilities, the compliance requirement becomes an additional component that will need proactive engagement by commercial entities and possibly detailed harmonization by GCC governments. For example, in order to claim the VAT paid on imported goods, a VAT-registered entity must possess a copy of the entry form or other customs document. Firms that actively import from overseas for distribution into the UAE will be required to ensure that items carry VAT when sold to the next user in the chain. Should these items then be re-exported to another GCC country, two aspects will require careful attention: first, the submission of the export invoice to the local authorities to enable a claim to be made for a refund of VAT paid to date locally (because, typically, VAT is not levied on export transactions), and second, the shipping documentation that complies with the VAT requirements of the new country. (For example: if shrimp draws a one-percent VAT levy in the UAE, the same item may attract a two-percent levy in Saudi Arabia, therefore requiring new documentation to substantiate compliance.)

From the government’s perspective, several factors shape the question of how VAT compliance will be administered. For example, for every service or good delivered – a VAT-able event has occurred. Will the VAT payment be made via paper or electronic submission? How often will tax submission occur? Will the compliance officer have to assess each line item to ensure that the valid and appropriate VAT rate has been applied? What will be the turn-around time of VAT refund claims? Will long lines of tourists claiming VAT back at the airport (as in Manchester or at Heathrow) be acceptable within the GCC environment? How do the governments intend to actually combat ‘carousel’ fraud (a.k.a. intracommunity VAT fraud, usually carried out by organized criminal groups which import goods VAT-free from one country and sell the goods in another country while charging the buyer VAT then never paying the tax to the state)?

Will the banks separate VAT liabilities and assets into different bank accounts for clients, or merge them into one operating account?

All these questions will certainly be answered through forthcoming implementation guidance from the governments concerned. Until that occurs, however, the necessary education and related implementation of VAT systems within commercial entities and banking institutions will be based solely on theoretical guidance. As is evident within the EU, the embedding of a VAT system that works well takes time and, if not addressed properly, carries attendant commercial and financial risks.

*About the authors:
Grant Huxham is an advisor at Gulf State Analytics and the Chief Financial Officer at Health Safety Emirates. Emmaline Ivy Johnson is a contributor to Gulf State Analytics.

Source:
This article was published by Gulf State Analytics

China’s rejection of the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling on its expansive claim to the South China Sea has set itself up for confrontation with maritime states in Southeast Asia. It will also heighten tensions within ASEAN.

By Barry Desker*

The risk of confrontation between China and the maritime states of Southeast Asia has increased significantly. On 12 July 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague ruled that China’s expansive claim to the waters of the South China Sea enclosed by its “nine dash line” map had no legal basis under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and China could not claim historical rights to resources within the enclosed area. It criticised China for denying Philippine fishermen access to shared fishing grounds and aggravating the dispute by engaging in extensive land reclamation and the building of artificial islands.

In a striking indictment of Chinese actions, the tribunal observed that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights within the Philippine EEZ by interfering with Philippine fishing and petroleum exploration, constructing artificial islands and failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing within the zone. The arbitral tribunal noted that the entitlement of islands to a territorial sea and exclusive economic zone (EEZ) had to be based on natural conditions, not the result of augmentation through land reclamation. It concluded that none of the features in the Spratlys are islands capable of sustaining human or economic life on their own, including the Taiwanese-occupied Itu Aba, the largest natural land mass in the Spratlys.

Strong Chinese Reactions

The Chinese government rejected the ruling, calling it “null and void”. It had earlier rejected the jurisdiction of the UN arbitral tribunal and declined to participate in the case. Ahead of the announcement, Chinese policymakers engaged in a diplomatic offensive warning that any decision undermining Chinese sovereignty “will increase tension and undermine peace in the region” and conducted live-firing military exercises in the disputed waters. In remarks published after the ruling, President Xi Jinping told European Union leaders attending the China-EU Summit that China “will not be affected in any way by the ruling and case brought by the Philippines”.

Although China has supported calls for an early conclusion to the ASEAN/China negotiations on a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, in practice China has stalled negotiations by insisting on concurrent progress on implementation of the 2012 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) as well as proposing many DOC projects as a distraction. Just as the DOC took ten years to negotiate, China’s tactics will stretch the COC negotiations.

Increasingly Assertive China

In the meantime, through its assertive actions, China is changing the facts on the ground. There is a growing Chinese naval and coast guard presence in the South China Sea. China has also engaged in large-scale land reclamation including the building of runways, wharves, a weather observation station and four-storey building on Subi Reef as well as similar developments on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratlys and Woody Island in the Paracels. Recent years have witnessed sharp exchanges between China and the two most vocal Southeast Asian claimant states, the Philippines and Vietnam.

China has now gone further, challenging Southeast Asian states like Indonesia and Malaysia that have generally adopted a low-key approach to South China Sea issues. On 19 March, a Chinese coast guard vessel prevented a Chinese fishing vessel from being detained for fishing within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone near the Natuna islands. In response to protests by the Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, China said that it recognised Indonesia’s sovereignty over the Natuna islands but the detained Chinese fishermen should be released as they were fishing in China’s traditional fishing grounds – an argument contrary to UNCLOS which does not recognise historical rights.

China has since stated that there are overlaps between its maritime territorial claims and those of Indonesia. On 24 March, 100 Chinese fishing vessels were reported fishing in Malaysian waters off Miri, Sarawak. Frequent intrusions by Chinese coast guard vessels and fisheries protection vessels into Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone have also been observed in recent months.

China splits ASEAN

China’s actions in the hallways of diplomacy are also troubling. A meeting in Kunming on 14 June between ASEAN and China to commemorate 25 years of dialogue relations between the two parties ended in disarray. China used its leverage with Cambodia and Laos to block a joint statement on the South China Sea by ASEAN, after the ASEAN ministers had reached an agreement to issue the statement.

That statement expressed “serious concerns” over the South China Sea disputes which “have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and which may have the potential to undermine peace, security and stability” in the region. Malaysia had issued the statement, only to withdraw it later, reportedly because of frustration that the ASEAN decision was blocked by Chinese lobbying of some ASEAN governments.

These developments have occurred even as China is emerging as the leading trading partner and key investor of Southeast Asian economies. Southeast Asia’s historical experience is that the region would be seen by China as part of its zone of influence, just as Southeast Asian kingdoms had welcomed tributary relationships with China in the pre-colonial era. While their economic interests suggest that these states would align with a rising China, the divergent perspectives on the South China Sea have led maritime Southeast Asian states paradoxically to strengthen their ties with the United States.

China’s Growing Perception of Maritime Threats

The political reality is that Southeast Asian states do not pose a threat to China. A rising China which asserts its interests in the South China Sea will increase their wariness of China, even as economic linkages bind the region to China.

Today, the primary risks on China’s western borders are from separatist elements in the Uighur community as well as from Tibetan demands for independence. These pressures are domestic and limited in impact, although the self-styled Islamic State, also known as ISIS, may take advantage of Uighur Islamic sentiments as part of its global jihad.

China’s leaders recognise that the only power with the capacity to threaten China is the United States, the sole superpower, which has a network of alliance relationships in the Asia-Pacific. American naval and air power dominates the western Pacific. These concerns have led China to focus eastwards towards the Pacific. China’s assertion of its claims in the East and South China Sea reflects these maritime interests.

While the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration was clearly against China, it is not enforceable. But the tribunal’s decision will heighten the tensions within ASEAN. It increases the likelihood that China will exert more pressure on the claimant states to negotiate on a bilateral basis and to give due recognition to China’s interests. Next week’s annual meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers in Vientiane will demonstrate China’s leverage on ASEAN states.

*Barry Desker is Distinguished Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. This appeared earlier in the South China Morning Post.

By Dr. Sulaiman Wasty*

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s announcement last December of a Riyadh-led Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) received a positive response from Western policymakers. Undoubtedly, the enthusiasm was largely premised on hopes that the oil-rich Gulf Arab states will contain the spread of terrorist groups such as “Islamic State” (Daesh) and al-Shabaab across the Muslim world — from Somalia to Syria and from Libya to Afghanistan. Yet, the focus throughout has been on the manifestations and symptoms of these organizations’ global terror campaigns. Explicit acknowledgement of geopolitical, religious or ideological leanings of the major proponents of the IMAFT has been lacking within Western discourse.

Analysts must take stock of three important points. First, there has been a misdiagnosis of the IMAFT because of its sectarian dimension. Second, Saudi Arabia has made overstretched and financially unsustainable militaristic commitments. Third, Pakistan, a nuclear Islamic member of this alliance, is unlikely to actively participate in IMAFT beyond expressing platitudes of moral support.

The IMAFT’s plan for destroying Daesh has a relatively limited stated objective: to protect the Muslim countries from all terrorist groups and organizations (irrespective of their sect or name), and to fight terrorists in “Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Afghanistan”. There is hardly any consensus, however, on the nature and the level of this effort among the original 34 (now 39) countries comprising the Saudi-led coalition. Essentially, due to the dominance of the states having Sunni-majority populations (with the notable absences of Iran and Iraq), IMAFT is a coalition with a sectarian agenda.

Daesh presents itself as a representative of authentic Islam, commonly known as Salafism, as practiced by the early generations of Muslims. It includes the special brand of Wahhabism adopted by Saudi Arabia, whereby many Islamic principles of the dominant Sunni and Shi’ite sects are considered polytheistic—such as philosophy, spirituality, the spirit of sharia, and use of metaphors. Until there is greater recognition of the interplay between the ideas and politics, many observers will likely continue to misperceive Daesh’s ideology. Ultimately, while most non-Arab Muslim-majority member countries such as Pakistan are unanimously in favor of preserving the sanctity of the holy sites of Mecca and Medina, they are not necessarily in favor of “re-Sunnifying” both Iraq and Syria and flipping the existing power structures.

Second, through Saudi Arabia’s so-called “Salman Doctrine” the kingdom has embarked upon an assertive and militarized approach to its regional conflicts. The centerpiece is Riyadh’s intervention in Yemen. A standard interpretation holds that this adventurism emanates from the kingdom’s frustration with what Saudis see as Washington’s retreat from the Middle East and America’s tacit complicity with Iran’s foreign policy agenda following the passage of the watershed Iranian nuclear agreement. Not surprisingly, Riyadh’s decision to counter Iran’s influence was a key driver of the decision to support the Syrian uprising against the Assad regime—even at the cost of giving rise to a myriad of Salafist extremist groups.

Saudi Arabia’s oil-dependent economy is currently on a roller coaster. Saudi Arabia’s spectacular economic performance of the past commenced with a significant and sustained increase in the price of oil with concomitant increases in government and export revenues. Large-scale expenditures and investments in public sector ventures, with corresponding increases in imported labor, Saudi Arabian employment, massive building programs, and contributions to the Public Investment Fund as well as, to a much greater extent, the foreign exchange reserves, accompanied rises in oil prices. But the kingdom imports almost all of its military and most of its domestic security technology and equipment, valued in the tens of billions of dollars. Consequently, national security will continue to depend greatly on the power, development, transformation, innovation, and creativity of its economy during an era of cheap oil.

Accordingly, public sector expenditures are being cut back and government employment opportunities for the country’s most recent university graduates look less promising than in past years. There is even talk of some of the public sector bills being paid with IOUs and admission by government ministers of there being a discussion (but no agreed-upon plan of action) to introduce taxation for expatriates and forced repatriation of migrant labor from South Asia. Overall, a series of erratic and counterproductive swings do not indicate that Saudi Arabia is a confident state. These are instead the outward projections of a troubled dynasty’s anxieties about succession and looming social and economic challenges, along with an array of regional and security threats, as recently illustrated by the July 4, 2016 suicide bombings in Jeddah, Qatif, and Medina.

After considerable initial ambiguity, Pakistan finally welcomed the initiative. Officials in Islamabad confirmed Pakistan’s participation in the IMAFT and stated that the country was waiting for further details in order to decide the extent of its participation in the different activities of the alliance. When Saudi Arabia launched “Operation Decisive Storm” in Yemen in March 2015, the Pakistani parliament’s vote against Islamabad joining the campaign underscored Pakistan’s ambivalence and preference for “neutrality” in the Yemeni crisis.

Many observers of Pakistani-Saudi reciprocal relations may consider the latter’s position on Yemen somewhat surprising. After all, Pakistan’s military collaboration with Saudi Arabia dates back to the Cold War. Since the 1970s, Pakistan, with the world’s seventh largest army (made up of more than half a million active troops and the same number of reserves), has signed defense protocols with Saudi Arabia, other GCC members, and Jordan, providing military training and deployment of contingents in advisory positions. Even today, Pakistani defense personnel remain stationed in Saudi Arabia.

Nonetheless, Pakistan has to prioritize its own foreign policy and internal interests. Situated at the intersection of South Asia, greater Central Asia, Iran, and the Arab world, Pakistan must maintain a delicate balance with regards to the emerging geopolitical environment. Second, Pakistan’s military posture has traditionally been focused on India. Moreover, dealing with the volatility in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan provinces by means of Operation Zarb-Azb (sharp strike) against militant groups presents a heavy financial burden. Last but not least, the military-political establishment is not convinced of the probable success of the IMAFT.

Pakistan is also experiencing the growing influence of extreme forms of Sunnism and Wahhabism, despite the fact that a significant portion of its population of 180 million is heterogeneous in its sectarian mix. Indeed, the country is being dramatically radicalized by the influence of the Taliban and, not surprisingly, numerous religious preachers have tacitly pledged their allegiance to Daesh with little resistance from Pakistan’s government. Accusations of blasphemy are rampant, and there is less and less space for spiritualism, mysticism, and the legacy of the Indus civilization in folk music and literature.

Conversely, the politically conscious masses of the country have so far been abhorrent of the rigidity of the Salafi-inspired landscape against “nominal” Muslims. There is little patience among the general population for the particular criticism of the Shi’ite community, 20-25 percent of the country’s population. Similarly, the educated elite is exceptionally averse not only to the extremist ideas advocated by Wahhabism against modern institutions and democratic norms, but also to the justification of war against members of the military and security forces in Muslim countries beyond the Arabian Peninsula. More significant, the Pakistan army, as a largely-secular institution, plays a deciding role in the pursuit of Islamabad’s foreign policy objectives. Consequently, there are few signs of any direct involvement of Pakistan in the widening geo-sectarian cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Last but not least, the intelligence and security establishments, both within and outside Pakistan, are perennially conscious and extremely wary of the specter of nuclear technology falling into the hands of these Saudi-inspired fundamentalists.

In conclusion, there is a lack of clarity concerning IMAFT’s objectives and strategies. The alliance exists thus far as a pronouncement more than anything else. At the same time, non-Arab members of IMAFT are likely to find themselves co-opted in this sectarian initiative. Hence, this delusionary coalition may persist until a re-shaping of power configurations stabilizes the traumatized Middle East.

About the author:
*Dr. Sulaiman Wasty is an advisor at Gulf State Analytics and the CEO of Sharakpur, Ltd, a Washington, DC-based consultancy. Dr. Wasty’s career began at the Planning Commission of Pakistan when he served as special assistant to the Minister for Finance, Planning, and Development. He previously worked for the World Bank, and was CEO of G. William Miller Financial Integrity Services, LLC.

Source:
This article was published by Gulf State Analytics

By Mirza Zulfiqur Rahman*

Walking down the streets of Gulshan and Mohakhali in the central business district of Dhaka, one can sense a curious mix of chaos and order. Various government offices, private and international donor agencies, conference centres, embassies, shopping malls, hotels, restaurants of almost every major international cuisine and upscale residential colonies dot this area and the business activity here is a mark of the growth aspirations of Bangladeshi society. It was here, by the waterfront, in the Holey Artisan Bakery at Gulshan, that the heart of Dhaka was hit by terror on 1 July 2016.

It is clear that homegrown terrorism has shown its ugly face in Bangladesh in a violent, sophisticated and calculated manner. All around the world, where such attacks have taken place in recent memory, it has become increasingly convenient to assign responsibility to various terror front organisations and also for such outfits to take responsibility, be it international or domestic ones. However, one needs to dig deeper and find out how young Bangladeshis have come to this juncture, where they have gone to such depths of radicalisation. It is a long and difficult process to unravel the underlying reasons behind such events; instead of merely blaming the Islamic State (IS) for Bangladesh’s recent terror attacks the situation requires a comprehensive assessment of Bangladesh’s ground reality.

Let us shift attention to the height of the Shahbagh movement in February 2013, when Dhaka was in a frenzy of student-led activism and where students and people from all parts of the country converged, demanding capital punishment for the Razakars (a paramilitary force formed by the Pakistani Army in East Pakistan during the Bangladesh Liberation War, 1971) who were accused of leading the brutal killings and rapes during the Bangladesh Liberation Movement. The ruling Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League party and the Shahbagh protestors were politically pitted against the opposition, the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its ally the Jamaat-e-Islami. The political polarisation between important leaders of the Jamaat was intense amidst the sentencing of the Razakars and this led to a subsequent boycotting of the parliamentary elections by the opposition parties, marking a complete breakdown of electoral democracy.

The opposition-led violence in various parts of Bangladesh left the country paralysed, with the city of Dhaka and several pockets of Jamaat influence in the country witnessing spectacular and barbaric incidents of violence. In the political life of Bangladesh, this trend of violence is the main element that has remained unabated ever since; and disturbingly, has taken on a normalisation trend. Such violence, by the use of machetes, blades, swords etc, has come to be seen as the norm in the narrative of political violence in Bangladesh and the government has utterly failed in containing this. The government of Bangladesh has conveniently chosen to blame all the political violence in the country on its main opposition party and the Jamaat.

In recent memory too Mohakhali and Gulshan have witnessed barbaric incidents of political violence, during strikes, bandhs and hartals, with people being slaughtered on the streets. Conference attendees and other international donor agencies’ visitors have had to be ferried from their hotels to central Dhaka in ambulances on such days and this too is seen as normal. The killings of liberal bloggers, LGBTQ+ rights activists, Hindu and Buddhist minorities in various parts of Bangladesh, including Dhaka, have been witness to similar barbaric violent incidents, which have been covered well in the national and international media. The government has failed to contain such sporadic incidents of brutal killings, and this spectre of violence has taken a mindset form.

The terror attacks at Holey Artisan Bakery and the methods used for killing – in addition to using automatic weapons the attackers cut and mutilated the victims with sharp blades and machetes – are indicative of the normalisation of such violent and brutal means in Bangladesh. This has gained dangerous proportions in the post-Shahbagh political polarisation phase, and the recent attacks have shown that young terrorists are taking to such brutal means as a preferred, and in all likelihood, the normal choice to create terror. The government and the civil society in Bangladesh will have to address these underlying manifestations of violent means, and realise that homegrown terror will take shape from what are generally acceptable and normal modes of violent behaviour.

The events have regional implications as well, and can affect India through its porous borders. India must be well prepared, and not wait for such an event to happen. It must engage with Bangladesh in combating terror activities, which have the potential of spreading in the region. Bangladesh should and must wake up to its ground reality, late as it already is, and take effective steps to revert this process of the brutalisation of political violence, which is now being manifested in terror activities. The restoration of faith in a healthy electoral democracy in Bangladesh is also in its best interests and its larger neighbourhood. Terror and its means are evolving, and the approach to understand it and offer solutions must also evolve.

* Mirza Zulfiqur Rahman
Research Scholar, IIT Guwahati, Assam
E-mail: mirzalibra10@gmail.com

China has chosen not to take part in the arbitral tribunal brought against it by the Philippines. Hence, now that the tribunal has issued its ruling, China should stay away from commenting on the case and instead offer concrete plans for functional cooperation in the South China Sea.

By Zha Daojiong *

After three years, the international arbitration that the Philippines brought against China on issues relating to the South China Sea dispute between them came to a formal end on 12 July 2016. The findings of the arbitral tribunal did not come as a surprise.

The Chinese government has rejected the tribunal’s finding, having exercised its right allowed in public international law not to participate in the tribunal. Chinese and/or non-Chinese citizens can take issue with the wisdom or the lack of it behind that decision. Regardless, a page has been established in history. Meanwhile, it is upon us to make use of moments of history.

China Needs to Move On

Call it by whatever name – anguish, frustration, or scorn – voices pertaining to an official Chinese position in response to the case have been aired. It would be utterly unwise and self-destructive for anymore effort organised or endorsed by the government of China over whatever aspect of the tribunal exercise the Philippines brought forth in 2013.

Lost in the mainstream rhetoric on the South China Sea is ‘functional cooperation’. China should champion maritime and marine functional cooperation on the South China Sea and the space above it. Do it in the same manner as initiating the Asian Infrastructure Invesment Bank (AIIB), to fill in a development void the region faces but no one else seems to care enough about.

In the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), Article Six stipulates that “the Parties concerned may explore or undertake cooperative activities” such as a) marine environmental protection; b) marine scientific research; c) safety of navigation and communication at sea; d) search and rescue operation; and combating transnational crime, including but not limited to trafficking in illicit drugs, piracy and armed robbery at sea, and illegal traffic in arms.

Some are right to be skeptical. After all, Article Six of the DOC document begins by saying “pending a comprehensive and durable settlement of the disputes”. But that wording has not prevented such endeavours as the establishment of the ASEAN-China Joint Working Group on the Implementation of the DOC (JWG) in 2004. The JWG was tasked with formulating recommendations for developing cooperation.

Also in Article Six, it is stated that “the modalities, scope and locations, in respect of bilateral and multilateral cooperation should be agreed upon by the Parties concerned prior to their actual implementation”. This can be read as a political safeguard, which is a reflection of recognition of the domestic complexities associated with projects labeled as cooperation between parties in dispute of ownership.

It goes without saying that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) commends its signatory states to fulfill their duties to utilise and preserve the oceans and ocean-related resources. As is true of all international law, a state’s entitlement to rights over resources goes hand in hand with its obligation to cooperate in protection and preservation. All littoral states of the South China Sea have ratified UNCLOS and therefore have a legal obligation to pursue cooperation with other member states.

Complexities of Functional Cooperation

Now, that is the ideal. As has been observed before, functional cooperation has its own share of complexities. Believers in the value of cooperation therefore come up with “low hanging fruit” as an analogy, in order to make expert proposals actionable. But then, what is “low” for one party may turn out to be too high for another.

China needs to look no further than its own experience in establishing and operationalising the AIIB. Just come up with details attractive to believers in good-faith efforts.

The South China Sea waters – bearing in mind the complexities associated with competing claims of sovereignty and other forms of rights to jurisdiction – are prone to overfishing, illegal, unreported, and undocumented (IUU) fishing, in addition to habitat destruction. In particular, IUU poses a terrible stigma as it often entails a net loss to the fishing communities along the coastal lines.

Functional Cooperation on fisheries can, ideally speaking, begin with developing common methodologies for establishing a case of IUU. Joint efforts need to be made to establish evidence in the entire chain of operations: flagging, staffing, financing, and end sales, etc. Domestic law enforcement agencies of the various states need to be on board, together with diplomats and law professionals.

Interested actors have the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other specialised agencies to look to for expertise. For example, it was the FAO that enabled the passage of the Agreement on Port State Measures to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing, which entered into force in June 2016.

Winning Back the Goodwill

The tragic aviation incident of Flight MH370 lost on 8 March 2014 while en route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur, should be a reminder for a new push towards international cooperation to enhance safety in civil aviation. No matter how maritime boundary lines are eventually going to be agreed upon among the states, safety of civil aviation is both an international legal obligation and self-interest.

Satellite services like China’s Beidou navigational system can and should be put forward as a public good. In addition, under the framework of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), China should invite interested parties to work together and enhance technological and operational connectivity in civil aviation. It is the safety of passengers that truly matters.

Back in 1997-1998, when Southeast Asian states were fighting a regional financial contagion, China won goodwill by not devaluing its currency. Little else needed to be said as a reminder. Today, the larger background is rather different. But the spirit of building up a friendly neighbourhood is the same: come up with deeds that others can feel positive about, without necessitating change in principled positions.

From now on, China will be ill-advised to get entangled in the expected political and diplomatic challenge to agree to implement – in a wholesale manner – the tribunal’s ruling, a challenge that will come from within and outside the region. Beijing should focus on programmes that can truly promote safety in the use of the oceans and the space above, as well as in the preservation of maritime resources rather than (re) drawing lines through a shrinking pie. Doing so does not necessarily lead to a ‘thank you’ note from Southeast Asia or beyond. But, it can serve to balance those voices that promote China as the disruptive element.

*Zha Daojiong is a Professor in the School of International Studies, Peking University, where he holds a joint appointment in its Institute of Ocean Research. He contributed this to RSIS Commentary at the invitation of the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) where he was previously a Visiting Senior Fellow.