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Worrying Traces Of Resistant Bacteria In Air

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Polluted city air has now been identified as a possible means of transmission for resistant bacteria. Researchers in Gothenburg have shown that air samples from Beijing contain DNA from genes that make bacteria resistant to the most powerful antibiotics we have.

“This may be a more important means of transmission than previously thought,” said Joakim Larsson, a professor at Sahlgrenska Academy and director of the Centre for Antibiotic Resistance Research at the University of Gothenburg.

Joakim Larsson and his colleagues have previously received attention for their research on waterborne release of antibiotics from pharmaceutical production in India, which was shown to trigger the development of resistant bacteria.

Over 800 samples

In this new study, the researchers looked for genes that make bacteria resistant to antibiotics in a total of 864 samples of DNA collected from humans, animals, and different environments worldwide.

“We studied only a small number of air samples, so to generalize, we need to examine the air from more places. But the air samples we did analyze showed a wide mix of different resistance genes. Of particular concern is that we found a series of genes that provide resistance to carbapenems, a group of last resort antibiotics taken for infections caused by bacteria that are often very difficult to treat,” said Larsson.

The results do not show whether the sampled bacteria were actually alive in the air, which would make them a real threat.

“It is reasonable to believe that there is a mixture of live and dead bacteria, based on experience from other studies of air,” said Larsson.

European treatment plants

The next step for the research is to find out if resistance spreads through air from European sewage treatment plants. This research will be carried out within the framework of a larger collaborative international project that has just been selected for funding by the Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance (JPI-AMR), where the Swedish Research Council is providing the Gothenburg group’s financing.

“We’re going to let treatment plant employees carry air samplers. We will also study their bacterial flora and flora of people who live very close and farther away, and see if there seems to be a connection to the treatment plants,” said Larsson.


McCain To Trump: Don’t You Dare Make Peace With Russia – OpEd

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Sit down. This is going to shock you. (Not). We reported  on the telephone call between US president-elect Trump and Russian president Putin, where the current and future presidents discussed the need to set aside differences and look to more constructive future relations. With serious observers of this past year’s increasing tensions between US and Russia openly worrying about a nuclear war breaking out, with some 300,000 NATO troops placed on Russia’s border, with sanctions hurting average businesspersons on both sides, a normal person might look at the slight thaw in Cold War 2.0 as an early positive indicator of the end of the Obama Era.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) begs to differ.

In a blistering statement he released  responding to the Trump/Putin telephone call, Sen. McCain condemned any efforts by President-elect Trump to find common ground with Putin.

Any claim by Putin that he wants to improve relations with the US must be vigorously opposed, writes McCain. He explains:

We should place as much faith in such statements as any other made by a former KGB agent who has plunged his country into tyranny, murdered his political opponents, invaded his neighbors, threatened America’s allies, and attempted to undermine America’s elections.

Interesting that Republican McCain has taken to using the Hillary Clinton campaign line (the one that lost her the election) that somehow the Russians were manipulating the US electoral process. The claim was never backed up by facts and Hillary’s claim that some 17 US intelligence agencies agreed with her was shown to be a dangerous and foolish lie.

Why is Putin not to be trusted, according to McCain?

Vladimir Putin has rejoined Bashar Assad in his barbaric war against the Syrian people with the resumption of large-scale Russian air and missile strikes in Idlib and Homs. Another brutal assault on the city of Aleppo could soon follow.

What McCain doesn’t say is that unlike US troops in Syria, the Russians are invited by the Syrian government and operate according to international law. Oh yes, and they are also fighting al-Qaeda and ISIS, which has sought to overthrow Assad for the past five years.

Maybe McCain is just really sensitive after meeting with al-Qaeda and ISIS in Syria?

As rumors swirl from Washington about neocons sniffing out top jobs in the incoming administration, it would serve president-elect Trump well to reflect on he true nature of the neocon beast…

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

Donald Trump And South Asia – Analysis

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By Michael Krepon*

What can the subcontinent expect from President Donald Trump? Bewilderment, for starters. If the new occupant in the Oval Office is unfamiliar with Russia, China, the workings of NATO, nuclear deterrence, and the impact of trade compacts, do not expect him to be well versed on the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and Kashmir.

True, most incoming presidents are strangers to the subcontinent, but Trump is a special case. He did not take his homework seriously during a lengthy presidential campaign, and one of the many questions surrounding his ascension is whether he will apply himself to the monumental job ahead. The same questions applied to President Ronald Reagan, who fared well when surrounded by savvy advisors, and stumbled badly when given awful advice.

Trump will also be greatly dependent on the people around him for expertise and wise counsel. His inner circle of advisers consists of family members and a small cohort who stuck with him through thick and thin: Rudy Guiliani, Newt Gingrich, General Mike Flynn, and Jeff Sessions. Their abilities to handle the affairs of state are equally questionable. Guiliani is mentioned as a possible Secretary of State, along with John Bolton. Both have empathy deficits, confusing diplomacy with boorish behaviour. Their ties to Democrats on Capitol Hill are frayed, to say the least, and would encounter bruising conformation battles. Perhaps better-qualified candidates will come to the fore.

Below the top tier, where all of the diplomacy toward South Asia takes place – except for crisis management – the applicants are a mystery. If the top tier appointments have little standing, recruiting quality help will be extremely challenging. Many high-ranking officials in previous Republican administrations have sworn off working for Trump. The Heritage Foundation will be heavily involved in job placement, with Old School Republican internationalists continuing their retreat from the corridors of power. Obstructionists and deconstructionists will now have a go at making policy.

US presidential diplomacy is likely to return to the cue card era of the Reagan administration. Do not expect major initiatives toward the region in the Trump administration. The trend lines toward India and Pakistan established during the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations are too deeply grooved to change, but there could be differences in degree rather than course corrections. New Delhi could find it has a less persuasive advocate in the White House for its pursuit of NSG membership, and an unsympathetic ear to Prime Minister Modi’s ‘Make in India’ campaign. Pakistan faces a bigger problem: a less tolerant executive branch for hosting Jaish and Lashkar cadres that carry out attacks against India.

Pakistan’s talking points have long since lost traction in Washington. If there is not evident change in Rawalpindi’s stance toward anti-India groups, the Trump administration and Capitol Hill could react very strongly when the next attack happens. One key variable is how much overt effort Rawalpindi makes to stop cross-border violence. A second is the scale of the attack.

Washington no longer pretends to have the carrots to influence Rawalpindi’s choices, but it still has more sticks. The ‘nuclear’ option is declaring Pakistan to be a state supporter of terrorism – a decision many in India would applaud, until they deal with the consequences.

US-Pakistan relations are a sad tale of mutually unrequited hopes. US-India relations are a positive work in progress that could also be defined by mutually unrequited hopes. One test of the relationship during the Trump administration could come with increased friction – perhaps of a serious nature – between Washington and China. In which event, boosters of the US embrace of India would expect something more than studied neutrality.

* Michael Krepon
Co-Founder, Stimson Center

Trump Prepares To Takeover Fed – OpEd

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In Donald Trump’s first four years as president, he will not only choose three judges for the Supreme Court, he’ll also pick five of the seven members on the Fed Board of Governors. It would be impossible to overstate the effect this is going to have on the nation’s economic future. With both houses of Congress firmly in the GOP’s grip, we could see the most powerful central bank in the world transformed into a purely political institution that follows the diktats of one man.

Critics may think that is a vast improvement over the present situation in which the Fed conceals its allegiance to the giant Wall Street investment banks behind a public relations cloud of “independence”, but the idea of one man controlling the price of the world’s reserve currency and, thus, the price of financial assets and commodities across the globe, is equally disturbing. Already we have seen how the Fed’s determination to enrich its constituents has resulted in one titanic asset-price bubble after the other. Imagine if that power was entrusted to just one individual who could be tempted to use that authority to shape economic events in a way that enhanced and perpetuated his own political power. Even so, after seven years of a policy-induced Depression that has increased inequality to levels not seen since the Gilded Age, we think it is high-time that the president use his power to choose the members who will bring the bank back under government control. Here’s more background from the LA Times:

“Donald Trump leveled unprecedented criticism at the Federal Reserve during the campaign. As president, he could get to quickly reshape it … Trump will have the opportunity to appoint as many as five new members to the seven-person Fed Board of Governors during his first year and a half in office. That includes a new chairperson to replace Janet L. Yellen, whose term expires in early 2018…

Trump hammered Yellen in the final months of the (presidential) campaign, accusing her of keeping the benchmark rate “artificially low” to help fellow Democrats President Obama and Hillary Clinton.

“I think she is very political and to a certain extent, I think she should be ashamed of herself.” Trump told CNBC in mid-September. At the first presidential debate two weeks later, he declared that “the Fed is being more political than Hillary Clinton.”

And Trump’s final campaign video included images of the Fed and Yellen, casting her has part of the “political establishment” that has “bled our country dry.”…

“Never before have we had an incoming president not just criticize how Fed policy has been executed … but accuse the Fed chair of undermining the institution by being in political cahoots with his opponent and the White House,” (James) Pethokoukis said. “We’re off the grid into uncharted territory.”… (Trump hammered the Federal Reserve as a candidate. As president, he could quickly reshape it, LA Times)

We can safely assume that the Supreme Court is going to reflect Trump’s corporate-friendly laissez-faire attitude towards big business, the question is: What can we expect from the Central Bank once it becomes the White House’s flunky?

That’s hard to say, mainly because Trump frequently espouses two seemingly contradictory views at the same time.

What do I mean by that?

I mean, that on the one hand, Trump is a big cheerleader for non-interventionist, free market capitalism, but on the other, he is a committed rightwing populist who seems to thrive on the support of the masses, which is clear when he things like this:

“You know who gets hurt the most (by Yellen’s easy money policies)? The people that went through 40 years of their life and saved a hundred dollars every week (in the bank)…..They worked all their lives to save and now what happens is they’re being forced into an inflated stock market and at some point they’ll get wiped out.”

So, how will Trump’s populism shape his views on who should or should not be a member of the Fed?

We don’t know, but we do know that monetary policy is going to change dramatically from the last eight years of unproductive experimentation because Trump has surrounded himself with industry leaders who ascribe to an entirely different philosophy than the one currently in practice. Check this out from monetary analyst Tommy Behnke:

“Some of today’s most reasonable mainstream economic voices are included in (Trump’s) inner circle. These names include David Malpass of Encima Global, who co-signed a letter with Jim Grant opposing the Fed’s “inflationary” and “distortive” quantitative easing program; John Paulson of Paulson & Co., who made billions from shorting the housing market before the Great Recession; Andy Beal, a self-described “libertarian kind of guy” who blames the Fed for the credit crisis; and the Heritage Foundation’s Stephen Moore, who told CSIN in 2012 that he is a “very severe critic” of the Fed’s “incredibly easy-money policies of the past decade.”

While none of Trump’s economic advisers are by any means Austrians, they are far more hawkish than most of Presidents Bush and Obama’s past economic advisers.” (Why President Trump Will Fumigate the Fed, Mises Institute)

Trump, who is no fan of the Fed’s bond buying program called QE, has admitted he thinks stocks are in a bubble suggesting that he will probably take a more conservative approach to monetary policy. Even so, that doesn’t change the fact he’s going to have to opportunity to personally select the FOMC’s ruling majority, which means that he’ll be in a position to demand their loyalty as a condition of their hiring. Does anyone seriously doubt that Trump would rather control the Fed himself than keep it in the clutches of the cutthroat Wall Street banks?

There’s no doubt that the distributional effects of the Fed’s policies helped catapult Trump into the White House. Millions of working class Americans who are sick of the monetary “trickle down” policies and the job-eviscerating trade agreements found a way to express their frustration in the candidacy of Donald Trump. Their collective rage suddenly exploded at the ballotbox on November 8 pushing the real estate tycoon to a victory over opponent Clinton in what many are calling the political upset of the century. Trump tapped into that wellspring of anger and frustration by denouncing the “failed and corrupt political establishment” in which both Hillary Clinton and the Fed feature prominently. Now he’s going to take it to the next level by launching a surprise attack on the Fed which will leave Wall Street stripped of its power-agency and left to fend for itself. This is a blurb from the New York Times:

“A core view of many Trump advisers is that the extended period of emergency policy settings has promoted a bubble in the stock market, depressed the incomes of savers, scared the public and encouraged capital misallocation,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Right now, these are minority views on the F.O.M.C., but Trump appointees are likely to shift the needle.” (With Trump in Power, the Fed Gets Ready for a Reckoning, New York Times)

They’re going to “shift the needle” alright, then they’re going to drive it through the serpent’s heart. The Fed has had every opportunity to show where its loyalties lie and it has sided with Wall Street every single time. There’s a reason why 95 percent of all income gains in the last eight years have gone to the one percent, while working people have struggled just to put food on the table. Just like there’s a reason why stocks have tripled in value in the last eight years while wages and incomes have stagnated and the economy has slowed to a crawl. It’s the policy, stupid.

The Fed has created the conditions for a permanent Depression so it can provide infinite cheap money to its crooked reprobate friends on Wall Street. Now their little party is coming to an end.

Russia’s Lavrov Says Obama’s Comments ‘Regrettable’

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Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has criticized recent comments made in Germany by US President Barack Obama, in which Obama said he hopes President-elect Donald Trump will continue to stand up to Russia.

“This is regrettable, because when you conclude your presidential term you should answer questions and offer recommendations on positive aspects regarding solutions to America’s domestic problems, of which there are many, and the development of foreign relations. I do not think it is good to try to ensure continuity on negative issues,” Lavrov said during a press conference in Lima, Peru.

According to Lavrov, during a recent telephone conversation, President of Russia Vladimir Putin and US President-elect Donald Trump discussed and agreed on the absolutely unsatisfactory state of bilateral relations.

“This is what we should proceed from,” Lavrov said, adding that, “President Obama may want this to continue, but I am confident that this does not meet the interests of the American people and will not facilitate the settlement of global problems, because a great deal depends on our two countries.”

In the opinion of Lavrov, President Obama is contradicting himself.

“Every time he spoke with President Putin, he stressed that our bilateral relations were indispensable in addressing the key issues, including the situation in Syria and in the Middle East and North Africa as a whole,” Lavrov said.

Additionally, Lavrov said it appears that President Obama is paying too much attention to emotional issues and not enough to practical issues.

“This is understandable, as his term is ending,” Lavrov said. “However, I hope that common sense will prevail. President Obama has more than once demonstrated an ability to take a sober view of concrete situations.”

“As for our bilateral relations after January 20, 2017, they will depend on Mr Trump,” Lavrov said.

Qatari Soft Power Efforts: Two Steps Forward, One Step Backwards – Analysis

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Efforts to leverage Qatar’s 2022 World Cup hosting rights to create the soft power the Gulf state needs to punch above its weight and ensure a sympathetic hearing in the international community in times of emergency operate on the Leninist principle of two steps forward, one step backwards.

Take events this month as an example.

On the plus side, Qatar’s ambition to host not only the World Cup but also an Olympic Games was boosted with a declaration by Thomas Bach, the president of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), that he was open to a renewed Qatari bid. Qatar’s last bid failed in part because of criticism of its controversial labour sponsorship or kafala system that restricts workers’ rights and puts them at the mercy of their employers.

Mr. Bach’s statement may well reflect the emergence of a world in which human and other rights count for less with the rise of President-elect Donald J, Trump in the United States and of illiberal, if not authoritarian leaders, in countries ranging from Russia, China and Turkey to Eastern Europe.

Mr. Bach could nonetheless come to regret his remark if predictions by Trump insiders prove correct that the new president, reluctant to confront Saudi Arabia head on, is likely to pick on Qatar as a state that plays both ends with its close alliance with the West and hosting of a major US military base while at the same time allegedly supporting militant Islamist and jihadist forces.

Also on the plus side, in a significant gesture to human rights groups and trade unions in a part of the world that refuses to engage with its critics, Qatar’s 2022 World Cup organizing committee and a major international trade union, Building and Wood Workers’ International (BWI), agreed to launch unprecedented joint inspections of the working and living conditions of migrant workers involved in World Cup-related projects.

The agreement is intended to demonstrate Qatari sincerity in reforming the kafala system at a time that it is under fire for moving too slowly. Human rights and trade union activists have charged that Qatar is going through motions rather than embarking on truly substantive reform.

Yet, activists are unlikely to be satisfied even if the inspections prove that living and working conditions of World Cup-related migrant workers have substantially changed. The activists are demanding that far-reaching change be incorporated in national legislation applicable to all workers in the Gulf state and effectively enforced. Changes in national law expected by the end of this year are likely to fall short of activists’ expectations.

A 52-page Amnesty International report published earlier this month documented what it called “appalling” abuses of the rights of workers employed in the renovation of the Khalifa International Stadium. The Qatari World Cup organizing committee said most of the issues in the report that date back to last year have since been addressed.

Finally, Qatar’s willingness to entertain whatever degree of change and engage with its critics is prompting limited change and debate of the labour issue elsewhere in the Gulf. Prominent Saudi journalist Khaled Almaeena, a regime insider, in an article earlier this month denounced the kafala system as “slavery and ownership.’’

Mr. Almaeena was speaking from experience. “I was for 25 years the editor of the Arab News and for two years the Saudi Gazette, both English language Saudi newspapers. They were the eyes and ears of both Saudis and expatriates, probably more so of the latter. To them, we were a helpline. They wrote to us for advice, assistance, inquiries and support. Most of the letters dealt with working conditions, the breaking of contracts, unfair dismissals and unjust accusations…. There was no recourse to legal aid…” he wrote.

On the minus side, the backlash of the rise of illiberal leaders, the decline of concepts of tolerance and human rights, and a wave of conservatism, if not ultra-conservatism, are making themselves felt.

Qatar University this month cancelled a lecture on women in Islam by prominent Saudi women’s activist Hatoon Al Fassi, a member of the university’s faculty as well as that of Saudi Arabia’s King Saud, after faculty and students demanded on Twitter that she be sacked for challenging Qatari and Islamic values.

Similarly, the Qatari World Cup committee, in a further indication that Qatar may be backtracking on promises, said that current restrictions on alcohol consumption would be upheld during the World Cup. Qatar had earlier said that venues for alcohol consumption would be expanded from hotel bars to specific locations around the country during the tournament.

Not that alcohol is the litmus test of a successful Qatari World given that the tournament may attract a different demography with far more fans from the Middle East, North Africa and the Muslim world who care less about alcohol than their Western counterparts.

Reinforcing perceptions of wrongdoing in Qatar’s World Cup bid, world soccer body FIFA, banned Saoud al-Mohannadi, the vice president of Qatar’s 2022 committee, for one year for refusing to help in a corruption investigation. The ban dashed Mr. Al-Mohannadi’s ambition to become vice-president of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) and ultimately of FIFA’s governing council

Finally, in a bow to Saudi intolerance of any criticism, Qatar this month fired Jaber Salim Al-Harmi, the editor of Al Sharq newspaper, for tweeting that “other (Gulf) countries slash their citizens’ salaries, while Qatar increases wages. We thank Allah Almighty first and foremost then we thank our leadership which uses national resources for its people’s welfare.”

Mr. Al-Harmi’s comment hit at austerity measures across the Gulf, but particularly in Saudi Arabia, that effectively rewrite social contracts under which citizens enjoyed state-provided cradle-to-grave welfare in exchange for surrendering political rights.

Saudi Arabia has been particularly hard hit with stark increases of utility prices and mass layoffs. Qatar this month promised by contrast that it would raise by up to 100 percent the salaries of government employees, the bulk of the Gulf state’s indigenous labour force.

At the bottom line, Qatar’s massive investment in sports as a soft power tool has yet to withstand a cost-benefit litmus test. Without doubt, Qatar has enacted changes that put it among Gulf states in a class of its own. Yet, it has yet to convince many that those changes are only the beginning of a process that will ultimately lead to true reform.

Almost All Increase In Health Coverage Due To Return Of Benefits – OpEd

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The best measurement of people who lack health insurance, the National Health Interview Survey published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), has released early estimates of health insurance for all fifty states and the District of Columbia in the first half of 2016. There are three things to note.

First: 69.2 percent of residents, age 18 to 64, had “private health insurance” (at the time of the interview) in the first half of this year, the same rate as persisted until 2006 (page 1, Figure 1; and page A5, Table III). Obamacare has not achieved a breakthrough in coverage. It has just restored us to where we were a decade ago.

Second: The NHIS includes people with Obamacare coverage (via the exchanges) as privately insured. These comprised 4.8 percent of the population, aged 18 to 64 (page 5, Figure 8). So, slightly fewer than 64.4 percent had employer-based coverage. (A small number of people still have non-exchange individual policies.) That proportion is about the same as from 2010 through 2013 (page A5, Table 3). So, employer-based coverage has held steady.

Third: There has been a significant change from private coverage to government welfare (primarily Medicaid). The shift has been about five percentage points since 2006 and ten percentage points since 1997 Page 1, Figure 1). This trend was especially pronounced among children. In the first half of this year, 42 percent of children had government welfare for medical spending, little changed since 2010. However, between 2000 and 2010, the proportion doubled from about 20 percent to about 40 percent of children (page 2, Figure 2.)

Critics of Obamacare who focus on its increasing the proportion of people dependent on Medicaid (a welfare program) ignore the great expansion of Medicaid dependency years before anyone had heard of Barack Obama.

This article was published at The Beacon

Sri Lanka: Sirisena Says ‘We Should Face Difficult Tasks For Betterment Of Motherland’

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“What we have to do for the motherland is not the easy tasks but face the difficult tasks and win them”, said Sri Lanka’s President Maithripala Sirisena.

“The main political parties of the country have come on to a same path to go on a new journey for the motherland by correcting the faults and defects in the history. Whatever the criticisms are done that journey will be move forward for the victory of the country and the people,” Sirisena added.

Sirisena made these remarks during his visit in the Madurawala, Bulathsinhala area on Friday. He also engaged in several development activities in the area.

Sirisena said everybody should get together to build a prosperous Sri Lanka by bringing the grandeur of the ancient kingdoms by protecting the historical foundation, great culture and respectable history.

Sirisena vested the new auditorium of Madurawala Madya Maha Vidyalaya in the Horana Educational Zone with students. The President, who arrived in the school, was warmly welcomed by the students of the school. He also had cordial discussions with the children.

Sirisena declared open the Madurawala Henry Jayawardena Memorial Library. He also planted a Sandal sapling in the library premises to mark this occasion. He issued the first membership of the library.

The President also declared open the multi-purpose center in Anguruwathota. He also registered the first patient of the ayurvedic medical clinic of the multi-purpose center.


Spain Signs Agreement To Exchange Renewable Electricity Between Internal European Market And Morocco

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Spain’s Minister for Energy, Tourism and the Digital Agenda, Álvaro Nadal, signed an agreement in Marrakesh with representatives from Morocco, Portugal, France and Germany to facilitate the exchange of electricity from renewable sources between Morocco and the Internal European Market by means of a gradual integration of electricity markets by the two parties.

At present, Morocco is only interconnected with the European Union through Spain and there is also a need to complete the internal energy market so as to eliminate obstacles preventing a greater exchange of electricity. The declaration includes creating a roadmap that will analyze the legal, technical, economic and environmental issues, etc., as well as the bottlenecks that currently limit the exchange of electricity between the two parties.

The goal is to reach an implementation agreement at COP 23 or in the near future, while bearing in mind the circumstances in each country.

In part, the signing of this declaration comes under the Government of Spain’s strategy to further develop the interconnection of the Spanish market. The declaration complements the efforts carried out in this regard to develop new Spanish interconnections with Europe, through France, that were previously reflected in the Madrid Declaration, the Spanish government said.

For Spain, these interconnections are key to reducing the cost of the electricity system, fostering the integration of more renewable generation and improving supply quality and security.

Scotland And Wales Allowed To Intervene In Brexit Court Case

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(EurActiv) — The Scottish and Welsh governments will be allowed to intervene in the upcoming Supreme Court case to decide how Britain will begin negotiations to leave the European Union, the court said Friday.

Judges are set to hear the Conservative government’s appeal against an earlier ruling that parliament must approve the triggering of Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, which begins formal exit talks.

British Prime Minister Theresa May wants to trigger the start of the process by the end of March, but requiring approval by parliament could delay the process.

While Britain as a whole voted to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum, Scotland voted strongly for it to remain in the bloc.

From 5 December, 11 judges will hear four days of arguments from the British government and the claimants who brought the case, as well as representatives from the devolved governments in Scotland and Wales.

“The Supreme Court has today confirmed that the following applications to intervene in the above case have been granted: The Lord Advocate, Scottish Government; The Counsel General for Wales,” said a statement.

The initial ruling prompted outrage among Brexit supporters, who believe that pro-European lawmakers will seek to water down the break with the EU and derail May’s plans to invoke Article 50 by the end of March.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon earlier announced that her semi-autonomous government in Edinburgh would seek to join the case in a bid to secure a vote not just for the House of Commons but for the Scottish parliament.

“The democratic wishes of the people of Scotland and the national parliament of Scotland cannot be brushed aside as if they do not matter,” she said.

“So legislation should be required at Westminster and the consent of the Scottish parliament should be sought.”

Sturgeon’s pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) party has threatened a fresh vote on leaving the UK if Scotland cannot keep its ties with the EU.

Responding to the decision, Michael Russell, Minister in the Scottish government responsible for UK negotiations, said: “however we continue to call on the UK government to drop the appeal and to accept that Parliament has the right to determine the triggering of article 50.

“We recognise the decision of people in England and Wales to support Brexit, but the views of people in Scotland cannot simply be brushed aside. The Lord Advocate will be making the case on behalf of the Scottish Government and he will set out his arguments to the court.”

The court is expected to rule early next year.

Euro Continues Slide As Dollar Surges

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It has been more of the same this morning as the dollar extended its advance on the still undeteremined Trump reflationary policy measures after Yellen signaled an interest-rate hike could be imminent, while bond yields around the globe rose again, metals declined, European stocks advanced and futures were modestly in the red just shy of all time highs.

A quick recap of what Yellen said: she reinforced the message that the Fed was close to raising rates, noting that the case for hiking ‘relatively soon’ would continue to strengthen as long as incoming data held strong. She also signalled the need for the FOMC to avoid delaying rate increases for too long, as “it could end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly” in the future if the economy began to overheat. Yellen also quelled some fears that the pace of rate hikes would speed up in the future by noting that the FOMC expected that the economy would warrant only “gradual increases” in rates, reasoning that monetary policy was only moderately accommodative at the moment and the risk of “falling behind the curve” in the near future was limited. Yellen also noted her intention to serve out her full four-year term as Fed Chair – thus ending speculation that she might resign following Trump’s criticism of her policies during the former’s presidential campaign. There was some political tension in her remarks though as she defended financial regulations that President elect Trump has sought to partially reverse.

She also cautioned against Congress providing the economy with too much of a budgetary boost and suggested that they should target any stimulus towards the long run productivity of the economy. All in all markets have taken her testimony as signalling a near certain rate hike at the December meeting, with such a scenario now priced in at 96% on Bloomberg (vs. 94% yesterday).

As a result of Yellen’s hawkishness, overnight the dollar DXY index rose as high as 101.43, a new 13 year high, sending the offshore Yuan to record lows above 6.90, and unleashing a Yen selling frenzy, before moderating some of its gains after the European open. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.4 percent to trade at its highest level since February. The yen retreated 0.4 percent.

“Right now it is a dollar-dominated story,” Philip Borkin, a senior economist in Auckland at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd., said in a client note. “But beyond a Fed rate hike next month, many questions remain over the path of policy going forward – for both fiscal and monetary.”

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average entered a bull market after it extended its rally from a June low to more than 20 percent after the S&P 500 Index came within four points of a record on Thursday. Equities in Europe rose for a second day. The greenback’s gain weighed on oil, gold and copper, with the industrial metal set for its first weekly slide in four weeks. Global bonds headed for their steepest two-week loss in at least 26 years.

The latest driver of USD strength was Janet Yellen, who In her first public statement since the U.S. election told lawmakers that the Fed is close to hiking rates. The comments torpedoed Treasuries, while American financial stocks pushed their rally since Donald Trump’s presidential victory back above 10 percent Thursday. Speculation that he will boost fiscal stimulus continues to lift industries that are perceived to benefit from economic growth.

“The fact that she didn’t push back against market expectations for a December hike is perhaps the most significant takeaway,” said Jack Spitz, managing director for foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto, referring to Fed Chair Yellen. “The dollar is higher as a result.”

In early trading, European equities rose with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index adding 0.3%, heading for a 1.2% weekly advance. Industrial shares contributed the most to the measure’s Friday rally, while mining companies fell with commodities prices. Shippers and carmakers led gains on the Topix index in Tokyo, which rose 0.4 percent. The Nikkei 225 closed at its highest level since January. Telecommunications and consumer stocks drove Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index up 0.4 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index advanced 0.2 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.5 percent on the mainland.

Are Saudis About To Reveal Best Kept Secret In Oil? – Analysis

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By Nick Cunningham

One of the oil world’s longest and best kept secrets may finally be revealed. Saudi Arabia is preparing to unveil how much oil it holds, a closely guarded state secret that has been kept quiet for decades.

The decision to bring such important data to light comes as Saudi Aramco is preparing to partially privatize its assets, an IPO that could bring in some $100 billion. The IPO will be a monumental event, one that the Wall Street Journal says could offer Wall Street some of the largest fees in history.

Saudi Arabia often trades off with Russia – and more recently, with the U.S. – as the world’s largest oil producer. But while it produces at similar levels as Russia and the U.S., it is long been a vastly more influential player in the oil world. That is because of two reasons – the size of its reserves, and the ability to use latent spare capacity to quickly adjust supply, affording it an outsized influence on crude oil prices.

But while everyone believes Saudi Arabia has some of the largest oil reserves in the world, perhaps rivaled only by Venezuela, there has been a lot of uncertainty and skepticism over exactly how much sits beneath the Saudi desert. The world’s largest oil field, Ghawar, has been producing since the 1950s, raising speculation about the longevity of the supergiant oilfield. It alone is thought to hold around 75 billion barrels, and it churns out more than 5 million barrels every single day. Surely, it cannot continue like this indefinitely, but the Kingdom has not revised its official reserves for years, which have stood at 260 billion barrels since the 1980s. It is hard to overstate how valuable this information is, and how fiercely Saudi leadership protected it.

However, the collapse of oil prices since 2014 has pushed the Saudi budget deep into the red. The Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is undergoing an historic transformation of the Saudi economy, a multi-decade plan to diversify the country’s economic base and create new sources of revenue. At the heart of the plan is spinning off roughly 5 percent of Saudi Aramco, the most valuable oil company in the world. Saudi officials believe that the company is worth between $2 and $3 trillion.

But in order to settled on a valuation and launch an IPO of some of Aramco’s assets, investors need to get a look beneath the hood. That is why Saudi Arabia is now prepared to unveil not just its financials, but also the long sought after data surrounding its oil reserves. “Everything that Saudi Aramco has, that will be shared, that will be verified by independent third parties,” Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, told the Financial Times in an interview. That would include, “reserves… costs [and] profitability indicators.” He went to lengths to emphasize Saudi Arabia’s seriousness about the IPO, in an effort to dampen skepticism. “This is going to be the most transparent national oil company listing of all time,” he said.

There is a great deal of suspicion regarding Saudi Arabia’s insistence that its reserves still stand at 260 billion barrels. After all, how could such a figure stay constant when it is producing 9 to 10 million barrels every day, which adds up to a few billion barrels each year? Aramco would have to add billions of barrels of newly discovered reserves on an annual basis in order to prevent its reserve base from declining. It is doubtful that it has done that consistently since the 1980s. But nobody knows except the Saudis.

As the FT notes, this figure will have massive ramifications for both Saudi Arabia and the global oil market. Right now, everyone is operating under the assumption that Saudi Arabia can continue to pump at its current pace for another seven decades. Long-term oil forecasts are predicated, in part, on Aramco’s ability to do that. More important for Saudi Arabia itself, its credit rating as well as the fortunes of its economy over the coming decades is also predicated on that assumption. A sharply lower reserve estimate could send oil futures up if fears over supply surface, and it might also affect Saudi Arabia’s credit rating.

Aramco is preparing to launch the IPO in 2018, which means that it will need to publish data on its oil reserves before then. The oil world’s biggest secret could soon be publicly released.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Are-The-Saudis-About-To-Reveal-The-Best-Kept-Secret-In-Oil.html

US Presidential Election: Myths And Deceits – OpEd

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Every aspect of this year’s US Presidential election has been fraught with myths, distortions, fabrications, wishful thinking and invented fears.

We will proceed to discuss facts and fictions.

Electoral Participation

The mass media, parties and candidates emphasized the ‘unprecedented voter turnout’ in the elections. In fact, 48% of the eligible voters abstained.

In other words, nearly half of the electorate did not vote. There were many reasons, including widespread disgust at both major party candidates and the weakness of ‘third parties’. This includes disappointed Bernie Sanders supporters angry over the Democratic Party’s cynical manipulation of the primary nomination process. Others were unable to vote in their neighborhoods because US elections are held on a regular workday, unlike in other countries. Others cast protest votes against economic programs or candidates reflecting their distrust and sense of impotence over policy. Eligible voters generally expressed reservations over the gap between campaign promises and post campaign policies. These political attitudes toward elections and candidates are deep-seated among those who ’stayed home’.

In contrast among registered voters (53% of the electorate) over 90% cast their ballot. Ultimately, the presidential elections were decided by just half of the eligible voters with the winning candidate receiving about 25% eligible votes. This is not a robust mandate. Furthermore, Clinton may have ‘lost’ with the plurality of popular votes, since the US Presidency is ultimately decided by the ‘Electoral College’. In this case, Trump secured more states earning substantially more Electoral College votes, while the losing candidate’s votes were more concentrated in big cities and large coastal states.

The Myth of the Trump Revolution

Trump’s campaign displayed the typical demagogy of US politicians. In previous campaigns Barak Obama’s promised to work for peace, domestic prosperity, social justice and immigration reform. Once elected, Obama reneged on his pledge and continued to wage the old wars and launched new ones (seven altogether for the ‘peace candidate’). He approved a $2 trillion dollars Wall Street and bank ‘bailout’, while leaving over 3 million family home mortgages in foreclosure. He rounded up and deported two million immigrant workers. Meanwhile wage inequality between black and white workers actually widened; and overt police violence against black youth increased. We can expect Trump to follow Obama’s pattern of double speak and reverse his campaign promises.

So far, Trump seems to have appointed conventional Republicans to his Cabinet posts. Treasury and Commerce Secretaries will remain in the hands of Wall Street insiders. Prominent Republican warmongers will manage foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Trump has been on a post-election charm offensive to woo traditional conservative Republican Congressional leaders who had opposed his candidacy during the primaries. They will work with Trump in lowering taxes while eliminating government regulations and environmental controls – policies that have long been on their agenda. On the other hand, Trump’s populist pledge to ‘reindustrialize’ America will be opposed by Congressional Republicans with ties to Wall Street and financial speculators. Trump’s promise to persuade US multi-nationals to repatriate their billions and headquarters to the US will be opposed by the majority Republican Congressional leadership. Even a Trump Republican majority on the Supreme Court, will veto any Trump initiative to ‘force’ big business to sacrifice its tax-free overseas profits to come home and ‘Make America Great Again’.

In other words, Trump will implement only policies that coincide with the traditional Republican agenda and will continue some version of Obama’s pro-Wall Street policy. Instead of Obama’s executive tax loopholes benefiting big business, Trump will do it through legislation. Where Obama made pronouncement about supporting Civil rights and justice for African-Americans but actually ended up increasing police power and impunity, Trump will simply make modifications directly favoring the police state via Congressional legislation or Presidential decree. Whereas Obama rounded up and expelled 2 million immigrant workers, Trump will go after an additional 2 million Latinos on the basis of ‘criminality’. Obama relied on border police; Trump will beef up border patrols and concoct some agreement with Mexico’s conservative counterpart – short of erecting ‘the Great Wall’.

Obama and his Democratic predecessor, President ‘Bill’ Clinton cut the proportion of unionized workers in the private sector to 8%, through economic and labor policies backed by millionaire trade union bureaucrats. Trump, on the other hand, will crudely dismiss these impotent ‘union’ functionaries and hacks while slashing whatever remains of worker rights.

Presidents Obama and Clinton linked ‘identity groups’ with the interests of bankers, billionaires and militarists, but Trump will toss out ‘identity politics’ in favor of populist appeals to construction workers and infrastructure contractors while attracting the same Wall Street executives, billionaires and militarists that had worked closely with previous administrations.

Trump’s Wall Street appeal was clear after his victory when the stock market broke new highs, jumping 1,000 points between November 4 and 10th.

The pro-Clinton Wall Streeter boosters were smartly outflanked by the ’silent majority’ of financial CEO’s who applauded Trump’s promises of deregulation and corporate tax cuts.

Despite the certainty of President Trump’s reneging on all his promises to American workers, he will still retain the support of small and medium businesses and professionals, who outnumber and outvote the so-called ‘white worker vote’.

Trump Complies with Rightwing Republican Agenda

To unify the Republican Party and gratify the rightwing electoral base Trump will offer up some symbolic gratification, such as:

1. Increase frontier security – He will triple the number of border patrol officers and extend the Obama-Clinton’s search and expel formula. His PR machines will crank out timely reports of mass deportations of Latino workers to titillate the Anglo voters – while reassuring agribusiness and other industries that their access to cheap imported labor will continue.

2. He will appoint a rightwing WASP (first in a long time) to the Supreme Court after decades of ‘identity appointments’. His court will try to reverse Roe versus Wade on access to abortion- satisfying Catholics, fundamentalists, orthodox Jews and Protestants – sending the issue back to the reactionary states. Women in the urban centers and large population coastal states will retain reproductive health rights while poor and rural women will see significant regression.

3. Trump will ‘renegotiate NAFTA’ without reversing current free trade provisions, offering tax incentives and tax penalties to discourage future flight but with little effect.

4. Trump will force a repeal of the multi-party nuclear agreement with Iran, but he will not re-impose international sanctions because of Russian and Chinese vetoes in the UN Security Council and the lucrative billion- dollar trade deals signed between Iran and Germany and France. Trump’s Iran caper may pleasure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli lobby, but this would force him to violate his own stated pledge to avoid more Middle East entanglements.

5.Trump’s anti-Muslim policy will be reduced to writing tighter immigration rules for Muslims from the Middle East and South Asia, but not include total exclusion. These watered-down policies will quell opposition and satisfy Islamo-phobes.

6.President Trump’s deregulation of environmental protections will alienate ecologists and the science community but will appeal to big energy corporations and their employees, workers and gas property leasers. However, the rest of the world will continue to treat climate change as real and Trump will end up isolated in a climate-denial corner with the reactionary presidents of Poland and kleptocratic-Ukraine.

7. Trump will face stiff opposition when he tries to break the newly restored diplomatic and economic relations with Cuba to please his rightwing Cuban exile supporters. But the deals will go thru: On December 1, 2016 Delta Airlines will begin three daily flights, joining a dozen other airlines to the delight of thousands of travel agency owners and employees as well as tens of thousands of tourists and visitors. US business and agro exporters will object to any re-imposition of trade sanctions. Trump will probably end up tossing some bones to the rightwing exile community in the way of rhetoric while maintaining diplomatic ties and Obama’s embargo. He may expand the US base in Guantanamo.

8. Trump will continue to support the right-wing ‘golpistas’ in Venezuela but will not commit US troops for an invasion. He will make deals with right wing and center-left regimes in the Latin America without pushing for coups or exclusionary regional trade pacts.

9. Trump will end economic sanctions against Russia and then negotiate some cooperation agreement with Putin to bomb Syria’s Islamist terrorists ‘into the stone age’ and withdraw US commitments to the Saudis, Gulf Monarchies and its jihadi mercenaries on regional ‘regime change’. He will renegotiate trade relations with China to encourage greater reciprocity, investments and exchange rates (if necessary).

Conclusion

On vital economic policies, Trump will pursue traditional Republican business policies – the linchpin being lower taxes and fewer regulations.

On identity politics (as well as human rights), Trump will tighten restrictions on access to abortion and immigration to satisfy the right-wing moralists and religious fundamentalists.

Trump will not confront Wall Street, the multi-nationals, the military industrial complex or the pro-Israel billionaires and lobbies. US workers will find very few new well- paying jobs except in select infrastructure projects. The industrial rust belt will continue to rust. The tens of thousands of public sector workers and professional slashed by Trump’s pledge to cut government will not find decent jobs in the private sector. Over time, Trump supporters who flocked to his promises for economic change will be replaced by a motley collection of Bible thumpers of all colors and faiths. There will emerge a new groundswell of frustrated workers, employees and professionals — but where will they turn? Certainly they must not return to the increasingly discredited ‘progressive’ Bernie Sander, who perfected his role as political ‘Judas Goat’ herding his reluctant supporters into the blood-stained Wall Street Corral of the War Goddess Hillary Clinton – known as the Democratic Party.

Obama Meets Leaders Of Germany, France, Italy, Spain And UK

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US President Barack Obama met in Berlin Friday morning with Chancellor Merkel, President Hollande, Prime Minister Renzi, President Rajoy, and Prime Minister May to discuss common challenges facing the transatlantic community.

According to the White House, the leaders agreed on the necessity of working collectively to move the transatlantic agenda forward, particularly on bringing stabilization to the Middle East and North Africa, as well as securing diplomatic resolution to the conflicts in Syria and eastern Ukraine.

The leaders also affirmed the importance of continued cooperation through multilateral institutions, including NATO, the White House said, adding that President Obama expressed confidence that, even at a moment of great change, democratic values have done more to advance human freedom and progress than any other system in history, and will continue to do so going forward.

With regard to Syria, Obama emphasized that de-escalation and a diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict are the only viable ways to end the suffering, prevent another migration crisis, and move toward a political transition.

The leaders expressed grave concern about the humanitarian situation in Aleppo, agreed that increased attacks against the city by the Syrian regime and its supporters, including Russia and Iran, should be immediately halted, and called for humanitarian access to the city to be restored, the White House said.

Relatedly, Obama thanked his counterparts for their significant contributions to the Counter-Islamic State campaign, particularly in Iraq. He briefed them on progress made in liberating Mosul, and all agreed on the need for stability after the city’s liberation, the White House said, noting Obama also urged his European counterparts to continue efforts to expand EU-wide information sharing to help disrupt terrorist travel and thwart plotting against targets across Europe.

The White House said that Obama and his counterparts discussed ongoing efforts to address irregular migration to Europe and agreed on the necessity of maintaining existing lines of effort to meet the challenge, including through NATO-EU cooperation in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas and focusing on migration’s root causes.

Turning toward Russia, the leaders also took stock of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the White House said, and they unanimously agreed on the continued need for Russia to fully meet its commitments under the Minsk agreements and that Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia must remain in place until it does so. The leaders expressed concern over the continued lack of a durable ceasefire and reaffirmed the importance of creating a security environment that is conducive to moving forward with free and fair local elections in the occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Finally, Obama thanked his colleagues for their close cooperation throughout his Administration, and urged his European counterparts to continue seeking solutions to common challenges with the incoming U.S. administration on the basis of the core values that define the United States and Europe as open democracies.

Israeli Defense Minister Seeks Trump’s Help Over Settlement Coordination

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Amid a storm of postulations surrounding what the American President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would look like in relation to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman on Thursday called again on Trump to coordinate with the Israeli government to “enable the development of settlements.

According to Israeli media outlet Ynet, Lieberman called on Trump’s new administration to work with the Israeli government to form a relationship that “will enable development in the settlements.”

“I ask myself why we didn’t succeed in developing the settlement enterprise as we wanted. The fundamental reason is simple: it is the failure to coordinate with the United States, the failure to create a coordinated policy with the American administration,” Lieberman was quoted as saying in Ynet.

He also added that the Israeli government needed to wait to see what Trump’s policies would look like under his new administration, and to “establish policies with them together.”

“We have to make agreements with them. No one is in our pockets,” he reportedly said.

Last week, the Washington Post reported that one of Trump’s top advisers Jason Greenblatt said during an interview with Israeli army radio that Trump did not believe settlements were an obstacle to peace, breaking off from his American predecessors and the entirety of the international community.

During his campaign back in May, Trump told the UK’s Daily Mail that he would support the continued expansion of illegal Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory, saying that the practice should “keep moving forward.”

“Look: Missiles were launched into Israel, and Israel, I think, never was properly treated by our country. I mean, do you know what that is, how devastating that is?” Trump was quoted as saying by the Daily Mail, adding that “with all of that being said, I would love to see if peace could be negotiated. A lot of people say that’s not a deal that’s possible. But I mean lasting peace, not a peace that lasts for two weeks and they start launching missiles again. So we’ll see what happens.”

Despite Trump’s wishes to position himself as a peace broker between Palestinian and Israeli leaders, the freezing of illegal Israeli settlements has been a central and unmoving demand of Palestinian negotiators and the international community. However, Israel’s construction of settlements on occupied Palestinian territory has continued unabated, despite routine international condemnation.

Lieberman’s comments came amid heightened tensions between right-wing Israeli politicians and the Supreme Court in recent days, as the Supreme Court dismissed a petition by the Israeli government to postpone evacuating the illegal Amona settler outpost on Sunday, ruling that the evacuation be carried out by Dec. 25 as previously ordered by the court.

The illegal Amona outpost, where at least 40 Israeli families reside, in the central occupied West Bank was slated for demolition in 2008 after the Israeli Supreme Court ruled in favor of Palestinians whose private land the settlement outpost was built on.

On Wednesday, the Israeli parliament — also known as the Knesset — approved a preliminary reading of a controversial “formalization bill” which would notably retroactively legalize hundreds of Israeli settler outposts constructed on private Palestinian land, considered illegal under Israeli domestic law. The bill has been pushed forward by right-wing Israeli politicians to prevent the displacement of Amona settlers.

The bill has garnered large amounts of criticism, as Israel’s attorney general said that the bill contravened international law and that there was no legal precedent for the expropriation of privately owned land.

While the settler outposts constructed in Palestinian territory are considered illegal by the Israeli government — despite authorities commonly retroactively legalizing the outposts — each of the some 196 government-approved Israeli settlements scattered across the West Bank are also constructed in direct violation of international law.

Meanwhile, mass protests have continued in the United States in response to Trump’s victory in the US elections. The new administration has continued to spark fears in the American public, as hate crimes have skyrocketed since the elections, while tensions were also heightened following the appointment of Stephen Bannon, a notable white nationalist and influential figure in the extremist right-wing, as Trump’s chief White House strategist and senior counselor.


Trump To Name Sessions Attorney General And Pompeo To Head CIA

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US President-elect Donald J. Trump announced Friday that he intends to nominate Senator Jeff Sessions to serve as Attorney General and Rep. Mike Pompeo as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn has been selected to be the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs.

Sessions has served as both the US Attorney for the Southern District of Alabama and Alabama Attorney General prior to his service in the US Senate.

“It is an honor to nominate U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions to serve as Attorney General of the United States,” said President-elect Trump. “Jeff has been a highly respected member of the U.S. Senate for 20 years. He is a world-class legal mind and considered a truly great Attorney General and U.S. Attorney in the state of Alabama. Jeff is greatly admired by legal scholars and virtually everyone who knows him.”

“I am humbled to have been asked by President-elect Trump to serve as Attorney General of the United States,” said Senator Sessions. “My previous 15 years working in the Department of Justice were extraordinarily fulfilling. I love the Department, its people and its mission. I can think of no greater honor than to lead them. With the support of my Senate colleagues, I will give all my strength to advance the Department’s highest ideals. I enthusiastically embrace President-elect Trump’s vision for ‘one America,’ and his commitment to equal justice under law. I look forward to fulfilling my duties with an unwavering dedication to fairness and impartiality.”

Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, a retired United States Army Lieutenant General and former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, assumes the position of National Security Advisor with more than 35 years in service.

“I am pleased that Lieutenant General Michael Flynn will be by my side as we work to defeat radical Islamic terrorism, navigate geopolitical challenges and keep Americans safe at home and abroad,” said President-elect Trump. “General Flynn is one of the country’s foremost experts on military and intelligence matters and he will be an invaluable asset to me and my administration.”

Congressman Mike Pompeo, representing Kansas’ Fourth Congressional District, is a former active duty cavalry officer in the US Army, graduated first in his class from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, received his J.D. from Harvard Law School and was an editor of the Harvard Law Review. He currently serves on the House Intelligence Committee, which oversees America’s intelligence-gathering efforts.

“I am honored to have been given this opportunity to serve and to work alongside President-elect Donald J. Trump to keep America safe. I also look forward to working with America’s intelligence warriors, who do so much to protect Americans each and every day,” said Congressman Pompeo.

President-Elect Trump – OpEd

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The first shock has passed. President-Elect Donald Trump. I am gradually getting used to the sound of these words.

We are entering an era of complete uncertainty. We Israelis and the entire world. From shoe-shine boy to head of state.

Nobody knows.

But first we must say goodbye to Barack Obama.

Frankly, I like the guy. There is something noble about him. Upright. Honest. Idealistic.

When the cameras showed him this week sitting together with Donald Trump, the contrast could not have been greater. Obama is the anti-Trump. Trump is the anti-Obama.

And yet….

Yet in all the eight long years of his presidency, President Obama has done nothing, nothing at all, for peace in our region.

In these eight years, the Israeli ulra-right has flourished. Settlements in the occupied territories have multiplied and grown larger. After every new settlement expansion, the State Department has dutifully condemned it. And then given Binyamin Netanyahu another few billions. And the latest gift was the biggest ever.

When he came into office, Obama made some very beautiful speeches in Cairo and Jerusalem. Many exquisite words. And they were just that: mere words.

Some people believe that now, when Obama is free of all obligations, he will use his last two months in power to atone for his sins and do something meaningful for Israeli-Palestinian peace. I doubt it.

(Years ago, at some European congress, I accused the Spanish Diplomat Miguel Moratinos of doing nothing for Israeli-Palestinian peace. In his aggressive reply, he accused me of sheer impertinence. Why should anyone do anything for the Israeli peace forces, if these forces themselves do nothing to achieve peace?)

Have we heard the last of the Obama family? I am not sure. Somehow I have the idea that after four or eight years we will see another Obama running for president: Michelle Obama, the wildly and rightly popular first lady, who has all the qualities needed: She is black. She is a woman. She is highly intelligent. She has a sterling character. (Unless in the New America, these are all negative qualities.)

There was some comfort in the election results. Hillary Clinton got more votes than Donald Trump. She lost in the electoral college.

To a foreigner, this institution looks as obsolete as a dinosaur. It may have had its uses when the United States of America (in the plural) were really a federation of diverse and different local entities.

These days are long past. We now used the term “United States” in the singular. The US does. The US thinks. The US votes.

What is the profound difference between a voter in Arizona and a voter in Montana? Why should the vote of a citizen in Oregon weight more that the vote of a citizen in New York or California?

The electoral college is undemocratic. It should have been done away with a long time ago. But political institutions die slowly, if at all. Somebody always profits from them. This time it is Trump.

A similar antiquated system is the appointing of Supreme Court judges.

The Supreme Court has immense power, cutting deep into the private life of every US citizen. Enough to mention abortions and same-sex marriages. It also influences international relations and much more.

Yet the power to appoint new judges rests solely in the hands of the president. A new president changes the composition of the court, and lo and behold, the entire legal and political situation changes.

In Israel, the very opposite prevails. Years ago, new judges were practically appointed by the old judges, “a friend brings a friend”, as popular humor had it.

Later this system was changed a bit – Supreme Court judges are now chosen by a committee of nine, three of which are sitting judges, two others are politicians from the Knesset (one each from the government coalition and from the opposition), two are government ministers and two represent the bar association.

Five of the members of the committee must be women. One of the judges on the committee is an Arab, appointed by seniority.

But the decisive point of the law is that any appointment must be made by a majority of seven members – seven of nine. This means in practice that the three sitting judges on the committee have a veto power on any appointment. So have the politicians. A judge can only be appointed by compromise.

Until now, this system has worked very well. No complaints have been registered. But the new Minister of Justice, a rabid ultra-nationalist woman, wants to change the system: no more majority of seven, but a simple majority of five. This would give decisive power to the right-wing politicians and abolish the power of the three judges to block political appointments.

This proposal has aroused very strong opposition, and the debate is still going on.

How to describe the incoming president, less than two weeks after his election?

The first word that springs to mind is: erratic.

We saw this during the election campaign. He would say two contradictory things in the same breath. Say something and deny it. Flatter one section of the voters and then their enemies.

OK, OK some people would say. So what. A candidate will say anything to get elected.

True, but this particular candidate overdid it. He presented a very nasty personality, devoid of civility, propagating hatred of blacks, Hispanics, and gays, denigrating women, not rejecting outright anti-Semites and neo-Nazis.

But it worked, right? It got him where he wanted to be, didn’t it? It does not compel him to go on in the same vein, now that he has reached his goal. So, forget it.

Some people are now dreaming of a completely new Trump, a person who abandons all his old slogans and declaration and turns out to be a sensible politician, using his proven talent for deal-making in order to achieve the things necessary to make America great again.

As a candidate he did the things necessary to get elected. Once in office he will do the things necessary to govern.

Other people pour cold water on these hopes. Trump is Trump, they say. He will be as nasty a president as he was a nasty candidate. A far-right hate-monger. His every step will be dictated by his ugly world of ideas. Look, his first major appointment was of a rabid anti-Semite as his closest advisor.

Well, I don’t know. Nobody does. I tend to believe that he himself does not either.

I think that we are in for four years of uncertainty. Faced with a problem he knows nothing about, he will act according to his mood of the moment. He will take advice from nobody, and nobody will know in advance what will be his decision. I feel fairly certain about this.

Some of his decisions may be very good. Some may be very bad. Some intelligent. Some idiotic.

As I said: erratic.

The world will have to live with this. It will be highly risky. It may turn out right. It may also lead to catastrophe.

People have compared Trump to Adolf Hitler. But the comparison is quite erroneous.

Apart from their German-Austrian descent, they have nothing in common. Hitler was no billionaire. He was a real man from the people – an unemployed nobody, who lived for some time in a public shelter.

Hitler did have a Weltanschauung, a fixed world-view. He was a fanatic. When he came to power, people deceived themselves into believing that he would soon give up his demagogic, rabble-rousing ideas. He did not. Until the day of his suicide, Hitler did not change his ideology one iota. Tens of millions of victims, including the millions of Jews, estify to that.

Trump is no Hitler. He is no Mussolini. Nor even a Franco. He is a Trump.

And that may be bad enough. May be.

So do up your safety belt and hold on tight for the roller-coaster ride.

Burma: UN Urges Aid Access, Warns Of Human Rights Violations

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Deeply concerned about the safety and wellbeing of civilians in the northern part of Rakhine state in Myanmar, United Nations entities today urged the country’s authorities to take immediate actions to address humanitarian and human rights situations.

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) urged the Myanmar Government to immediately allow humanitarian actors to resume the life-saving activities for some 160,000 civilians, which were suspended on 9 October.

“We are urging the Government of Myanmar to ensure the protection and dignity of all civilians on its territory in accordance with the rule of law and its international obligations,” UNHCR spokesperson Adrian Edwards told reporters at the regular news briefing in Geneva.

Rakhine state has been plagued with violence between ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims, a minority group.

According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), tens of thousands of people have fled their homes amid a security operation triggered by armed attacks on border posts in October. Residents, including members of the Rohingya minority and other Muslim communities, are reported to have suffered serious human rights violations including torture, rape and sexual assault, summary executions, and the destruction of mosques and homes.

OHCHR said humanitarian programmes providing health, food, education and nutrition assistance have been suspended and civilians are reported to be caught up in military action including attacks by helicopter gunships.

“We appeal for calm and for humanitarian access to assess and meet the needs of thousands of people who have reportedly been displaced from their homes by the ongoing security operation. The affected population is believed to be in urgent need of food, shelter and medical care,” said the UNHCR spokesperson.

UNHCR is also appealing to the Government of Bangladesh to keep its border with Myanmar open and allow safe passage to any civilians from Myanmar fleeing violence, he added.

Meanwhile, a UN human rights expert has called on the Government of Myanmar to immediately tackle the deteriorating human rights situation in northern Rakhine state, noting that a two-day visit by a Government-led delegation to the area in early November, which included a UN official and nine ambassadors, had produced only limited results in terms of addressing the humanitarian crisis.

“The Government has now admitted using helicopter gunships in support of ground troops, and there are unverified claims of reprisals against villagers who had shared their grievances with the delegation,” said the UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Myanmar, Yanghee Lee.

She criticized the authorities for placing the region on “lockdown” for six weeks and expressed particular concern at reports from the area that the security operation had been stepped up since the international delegation conducted its visit.

“It is not acceptable that for six weeks there was a complete lockdown, with no access to the affected areas,” she said.

“The security forces must not be given carte blanche to step up their operations under the smokescreen of having allowed access to an international delegation. Urgent action is needed to bring resolution to the situation,” she added.

Ms. Lee said allegations of human rights abuses, including the alleged rape and sexual assault of women and girls, needed to be investigated.

“State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi has recently stated that the Government is responding to the situation based on the principle of the rule of law. Yet I am unaware of any efforts on the part of the Government to look into the allegations of human rights violations,” said Ms. Lee.

It is crucial to recognize the issue at hand – as objectively as possible – and immediately embark on a transparent, non-partial, independent investigation, she said.

Ms. Lee echoed a statement by the Chair of the Rakhine Advisory Commission, former UN chief Kofi Annan, for all communities to renounce violence and for security services to act in full compliance with the rule of law.

She expressed hope that even before the Commission publishes a report next year, the Government would start taking interim measures in line with past recommendations to prevent further restrictions and violations of human rights suffered by the Rohingya population as well as other religious and ethnic minorities.

Why The Donald’s Win Might Be Good For White Women: For All The Wrong Reasons – OpEd

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By Tamari Kitossa*

If, for White male supporters of Donald Trump, the body of a Black president signifies they are strangers in their own land, leading to the intensification of White racism, then the body of a White woman in the Oval Office would have the effect of making them strangers in their own home. It cannot be ruled out, therefore, that White women would have been subjected to spousal violence if Hillary Clinton had won.

In a high-octane campaign run on fear, the exit polls are in, and they vary. Nevertheless, among the more fascinating results, perplexing to some, is that despite 54% of all women who voted casting a ballot for Clinton, 53% of White women who voted did so for Donald Trump. The result arguably shows that White women were the hidden force behind Trump’s election.

This is perplexing, of course, given the last-ditch effort by the media and the Democrats to represent Trump as a sexual predator, which seems to have backfired. That a modest estimate puts the number of times women are raped annually in the US at 300,000, it is indeed astonishing that Trump was totally Teflon on the issue of sexual assault. It is especially shocking that despite the publicity given to rape culture on US college and university campuses, 45% of college educated White women, though most of these are 30 years and older, voted for Trump.

Why, in a campaign driven by fear, especially that of a sexual predator, do White women not fear the Donald as do women of colour, in particular, and people ‘of colour’ more generally? More importantly, why did they fear Hillary Clinton, the first woman nominated by the Democratic Party (no matter how shady that s/election was)? I will argue that the majority of White women voters were driven by existential fear; especially in this election, in which the generation of fear of all sorts was greater than in the campaigns of George Wallace, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr.

One assumes that under a (faux) feminist Clinton presidency, White women would have fared better than with a clearly misogynistic Trump, whose cabinet it now seems will be all male and virtually all White. So, are White women in the US self-haters? Dupes? Anti-feminists? And will they fare worse off under Trump than they would have under a Clinton administration?

Well, wait a minute. The empirical evidence supporting the expectation that women fare better under the administration of women leaders, save possibly for Scandinavian countries, is sorely lacking. So, too, is the evidence that White women in voting for Trump did so out of character. According to Ronald Brownstein, White women have always voted solidly in the majority for the Republican Party, except during the Bill Clinton and Al Gore campaigns in which the candidates held a slight edge or broke even in terms of that demographic. There is proof of White women’s conservative leanings. In the shadow of the 2012 election, John Cassidy drew on Edison Research polling showing that in 2004, 55% voted for Bush; in 2008, 53% voted for McCain; and, in 2012, 56% voted for Romney.

Let me address race forthrightly before I get to my real argument, which is that White women in the US will accept plexiglass ceilings if they will be “safer”: if the choice is between being groped or raped by White men versus being killed by them, what’s the choice? Missing that White women’s lives are literally at stake, many are missing a prime motivation for the majority of White women, across all classes. It is not all about race, no matter how important race is. It is not analytically useful to cast Republican White women voters as a “basket of deplorables.” But while White voters who overwhelmingly voted for Trump are mainly implicit racists rather than  card carrying White supremacists, it cannot and should not be said that White women’s rejection of Hillary Clinton is a function of self-hatred, pandering to the misogynist idea that men are better at politics, nor are they traitors to the sisterhood. Nonetheless, the notion that White women in the US do not harbour deeply racist ideas must be checked at the door, since White privilege and supremacy is so normalized in that culture. While the US is a deeply White supremacist culture, White women have at least one good reason to vote for the interests of White men who see themselves aggrieved and losing ground in “their own country”: they live with them. They are their mothers, daughters, sisters, fiancées and wives. They did not, as a result, cast a ballot for racism directly by voting for Trump: their racism is incidental, if this is possible, to their choice of candidate for the oval office. What White women have shown is that racism is so deeply intertwined with class and gender, it is folly to believe, as (White) leftists claim, that this election was all about ‘class stupid’. Indeed, US elections have never not been framed through race. What I want to suggest, however, is that we see beyond single analytical frames if the metaphors of “intersection” and “interlocking” oppressions are to mean anything at all.

So, yes, when White women voted “…on the side of white men….[they]…decided that defending their position of power as white people was more important than defending their reproductive rights, their sexual autonomy, their access to health care, family leave, and child care”. But let’s think in terms of rational decision-making. The economic fortunes of families are principally determined by the access and status of men, no matter the status or income of women. In this sense, White women, regardless of sexuality, were rational actors who knew which side the proverbial bread is buttered on. But I do not think crass materialism was their only calculus: White women who voted for Trump shall not live by bread alone!

I want to suggest there is another real, though implicit and even counter-intuitive, reason White women overwhelmingly voted for Trump. They literally chose physical survival over annihilation at the hands of White men. This outrageous argument rests on two analogies. First, the presidency of Barack Obama had counter-intuitive and uniquely counter-productive effects for African Americans. In other words, a Black president, just like Reconstruction, brought a White backlash calculated to “put Black people back in their place.” Second, if we assume that sports and politics are not dissimilar arenas of emotional investment for men, then sports and domestic violence ought to be analogous to politics and domestic violence. Interestingly, database searches I conducted turned up no “hits” for “political elections and domestic violence.” Nevertheless, based on these analogies, I suggest that, at this point in gender relations, a White woman as Commander-In-Chief would have disastrously increased White women’s exposure to intimate partner violence.

Putting them back in their place: White rage rising under Barack Obama

First, gun sales among White US citizens went off the Richter scale in November 2008 in direct response to the election of Barack Obama. Sure, White Americans fearful of “big government” and liberalism under Bill Clinton started arming themselves. But it was Barack Obama’s election which kick-started Donald Trump’s real foray into politics as a “birther,” gave rise to the Tea Party, animated the White right’s fear that it was “losing” its “own country” and thus spurred rapid arming of White civil society.

Why White fear, to which rage is the expression? The Oval Office, the seat of domestic political authority, is not in a building called the White House for nothing. The body of the president and his family, including where they reside, are symbolic extensions of the people themselves. In a racially divided US, where white superiority is a given and only White people count as human and citizen, White US citizens see themselves collectively and individually reflected in the body of a White man in the scene of the country’s premier residence. This fact holds regardless of political persuasion. Interestingly, gun permits for African and Latino Americans have increased over this period too, though apparently as a response to violent crime. Yet given that these groups depend on government enforcement of rights, fear of crime is hardly the only reason that in a racially divided US, African and Latino Americans would want to arm themselves. With White US citizens arming themselves for the apparent “race war” to come, as Eldridge Clever quipped, confronted by a Black man with a gun, let’s see whether he is willing to test his White superiority.

Though it is a moot point now, it was predicted that with a Hillary Clinton presidency, gun sales and permits would show no sign of slowing. Despite this worrying dead letter prognosis, it is reasonable to assume that gun sales will also increase under Trump, but the reasons, especially for Whites, would cohere around racialization of the 2nd Amendment.

Second, since White people, and White men in particular, refused the possibility of Barack Obama as an extension of themselves, the skyrocketing of gun sales coincide with the rapid growth of White militias, the KKK and assorted White nationalist groups. These groups cohere around discourses of masculinity, nationalism and racial superiority. To be sure, under the administration of Bill Clinton militias were reenergized by the 1991 assault on the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas. They were also encouraged by Timothy McVeigh’s 1995 ‘terrorist’ car bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building which killed 168 people. Yet under Barack Obama’s administration, there has been a metastasization of White militias, whose growth has occurred with the implicit tolerance of the FBI, ATF and now border services. In fact, protests in Ferguson, Missouri, not only spurred another round of White militia growth, fully armed White militia men were at the protests providing “crowd control.” Driven by a smorgasbord of motivations, Shane Bauer shows that these groups routinely engage in border patrol, working alongside federal, state and municipal police forces.

Third, at least on a symbolic level, things went White people’s way in the US if police killings of African, Latinos and Indigenous Americans can be considered a metric of success. Sure, some White people, regardless of political stance I might add, are genuinely appalled by the casual gunning down of African Americans. But just as militias were born after the revolution to deter British invasions to retake the Thirteen Colonies, they also doubled as a police force to put down slave rebellions. Eventually, they morphed into slave patrols and from there into the earliest police forces in the US. With the lavish financial and hardware support provided by the Obama regime, and the lowest workplace mortality rate under his administration, police in the US have never had it so good. But the reality is that racism in policing, especially with the overwhelming majority of police being White, is as American as apple pie.

If we go back to my initial point that White men saw the embodiment of a Black president as not reflective of their sense of the rightness of political authority, I will go a step further and suggest Obama was imagined as an overturning of White authority. The casual extra-judicial murder of African Americans by White men is a modern-day Jim Crow, know-your-place-ism. Like the Klan, who were often police officers and political elites, and its murderous regime during Reconstruction, the ritualized destruction of Africans by the police is part of a revenge campaign of terror. I would suggest that every bullet for every Black man killed by the cops during his presidency was a symbolic shot at Barack Obama. And be sure that under Trump, every bullet riddling a person of colour will be a shot for Donald Trump.

So, if a Black president has led to an amplification of White racial animus, would not a woman president lead to similar results? Well, White people would still buy a helluvalot of guns; they would still grow the ranks of the militias and related groups; and they would still want African Americans dead. The reason would be transferred to the system of “big government,” liberalism or some other expediency. But, nevertheless, irrespective of any complaint against the system, the body of the president is an extension of the collective body of the most entitled group: White men. This fact has bearing, then, for the body of a White woman as president.

This part of my argument requires a different analogy, since no woman yet has occupied the position of Commander-In-Chief in the US. Let’s take politics as a form of sport and think about what that means for women. Indeed, descriptions of political campaigns are drawn directly from the athletic domain: race (as in foot or horse), first past the post, lead, ahead, catch up, poll and (transition) team, etc. That the sport of politics is a male contact sport is obvious by the metaphors: hard vs soft, pinkos vs red-blooded American, etc. All such metaphors conjure authoritarian and masculinist significations versus collectivist and feminine representations of public life so much that even women politicians such as Golda Meier, Indira Ghandi, Margaret Thatcher and Benazir Bhutto were all referred to as “iron” ladies.

The sport of politics and spousal violence

The domain of male sports, especially team sports, is awash in violence toward women. Locker room talk is often not idle banter, as is seen repeatedly in sexual assault by athletes off the field. In fact, sexual assault and violence against women is not the sole preserve of professional and amateur athletes; there is something about the culture of masculinity in sport that abolishes the difference between recreational athletes and their more accomplished counterparts. Aside from sports culture among recreational, amateur and professional athletes contributing to violence against women, there are correlations to violence against women and male sports fans, though the correlation is neither direct nor causal. In the case of spousal violence, the expectations of male fans seem to be the key factor.

In a 2011 paper titled “Family Violence and Football”, David Card and Gordon Dahl had the brilliant idea of exploring the connection to men’s expectations of their favoured team’s performance with police reports of spousal violence on the day of Sunday major football games. Calling their hypothesis “gain-loss,” they found a positive correlation between spousal assault and men’s disappointed expectations that their favoured team will do well. Specifically, if the favoured team loses in an upset by more than the expected spread, there is a 10% increase in the battering of girlfriends and wives. Even controlling for alcohol consumption, the result is constant. Interestingly, there is a time-frame for the frequency of the violence: frequency is highest near the end of the game and the more important the game. If the team loses when the game was expected to be close to begin with, or if the team wins by upset, there is no significant increase in the incidence of spousal assault.

Other reports suggest that for women already in abusive relationships, Super Bowl Sunday is the most dangerous day of the year. Presumably, Card and Dahl’s thesis would hold here, too. One British study partially confirms the “gain-loss” thesis, though it does not address whether spousal violence in the case of a team loss is a function of an already violent relationship. Though there were inconsistencies in the census metropolitan data, for those cities for which data was available the study showed that spousal violence rose during the season of the World Cup championship relative to other years. But contrary to Card and Dahl’s “gain-loss” hypothesis, the British study found that “Win or lose, there will be a significant increase in the rate of reported domestic violence.” No explanation was offered for this null effect of a team winning or losing, nor account provided of the impact of a draw on spousal violence.

Given the nuance demonstrated by Card and Dahl and the other studies cited, the correlation between sports and spousal violence is complex in its own right and obviously will not map seamlessly onto major political elections and spousal violence. But precise mapping is not the point. Indeed, particularly in political campaigns that are divisive, mud-slinging and which draw voters’ self-perception, worldviews, sense of right and wrong and ultimately their life chances into the sum total of the embodiment of the party’s leader, the sports analogy cannot hold the sheer combustibility that inheres in political campaigns. Especially when a politician is right wing, espouses demagoguery and advocates violence, his loss is his supporters’ loss.

My core point is that if, for White male supporters of Donald Trump, the body of a Black president signifies they are “strangers in their own land,” leading to the intensification of White racism, then the body of a White woman in the Oval Office would have the effect of making them “strangers in their own home.” It cannot be ruled out, therefore, that White women would have been subjected to spousal violence if Hillary Clinton had won.

Whether the White men who supported Trump during the election expected him to win or not, unlike the spectator of a favourite team, civic politics makes all participants players in the game. Among the political right, with its angst about the 2nd Amendment, “big government” and losing personal power, the expectation of the leader winning even against great odds assures us that a loss in the winner-takes-all race of politics, especially to a leader who does not signify White men’s embodiment, would intimate spousal violence is highly likely to occur.

Conclusion

No doubt the perspective I have taken has limitations and may even be preposterous. First, the sports-domestic violence analogy might not map well onto the thesis that in the case of a highly patriarchal and racist culture, a national election with a winning woman candidate will necessarily lead to violence against intimate partners. From the sports studies just cited, win, lose or draw, women will be battered election night no matter what, just as they will on any given Sunday. But given that it seems that from a cursory database search, neither criminologists nor political scientists have elections as a burning topic of inquiry, the analogy ought not to be dismissed merely because it lacks empirical evidence.

Instead, scholars should begin, for as far back as they can go, to tabulate homicide against women by state, county, immigrant status, personal and household income, wealth, race, ethnicity, and the political affiliation of the deceased and her spouse. We need a veritable cottage industry that rethinks how and what data is collected about homicide against women. Aside from genuinely educating the public away from the “law ‘n’ order” approach that sustains the criminal-industrial complex, political parties will look at themselves, for a change, as the organizers of homicide and actually do something about it.

Second, to generalize the potential for spousal violence to a large number of the supporters of a male candidate running against a woman has all the elements of gross overreach. Agreed. But if the empirical evidence indicates an increase and intensification of violence toward African Americans because of a Black president, why would not White women have suffered violence because of a woman president? The idea that White women voted for Trump because they are racists, traitors to the cause of women or some other such explanation do not trump the two-pronged argument I have provided. The reality is that people act with tacit knowledge drawn from their daily lives even without the capacity to name the basis for their actions. If the analogies I have presented have any merit, it is that White women have intuitively seen in their lives what a Black president brought African American people at the hands of White men, and, have also seen what being a woman means Sunday afternoons when their spouse’s team loses or wins.

Yes, like German women liberated in WWII by both the Allies and the Russians, the impossible choice was between the Allies over their heads or the Russians on their bellies. I suggest that among the choices presented to White women in the last US election, one of them was simply impossible: be represented by a groper in chief or more battered, bruised or dead because a White woman is commander in chief.

Despite the history of White women voting Republican, I think the campaign of fear in the 2016 election is unique. I suggest we ought to consider that White women may have voted as much out of fear for the White men in their lives as they did of them. This speculation, of course, does not mean women ought not to run for the presidency or sit as commander in chief. But it cannot happen unless and until the patriarchal structures that normalize and are intertwined with class, gender, racial and sexual violence become the focus for collective concern that they ought to be. Until that day is made to arrive, a consequence of any minoritized person sitting as head of state in the US will be deadly collateral damage for individuals and the group the president’s body represents.

* Tamari Kitossa is Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, Brock University, Ontario, Canada, specializing in anti-criminology, criminalization and racialization, blackness in western culture and interracial unions.

Rethinking Philippine Labor Export – Analysis

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The Philippines has a culture of politics-induced labour migration. It relies heavily on labour export and remittance money but that has resulted in many negative consequences for the country’s economic and social development. Notwithstanding President Rodrigo Duterte’s pronouncement on changing this situation, no imminent change is expected.

By Arunajeet Kaur*

Despite his declared interest in changing Filipino attitude on overseas employment, it does not look like President Rodrigo Duterte is making inroads on this front. Indeed, it does not look like the policy on Philippine labour export will change in the foreseeable future. So far President Duterte is making headlines more for his foreign engagements with China, Japan and the United States than following through with his declared interest on reversing the overseas employment policy.

Since the 1970s, the Philippines has supplied skilled and low skilled workers to the world’s more developed regions. By 2050, the Philippines, projected to be the tenth most populous country in the world, will also be the fifth largest supplier of emigrants to OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. This Filipino culture of migration entails the outflow of the young (55 percent from age group 25-39 years); highly educated (64 percent college graduates); highly skilled (nurses, IT professionals, teachers); and predominantly female service workers (caregivers and domestic helpers).

Enter Duterte

Rodrigo Duterte was elected President of the Philippines in May 2016. He is predicted to act differently from his predecessors as he is the first Filipino President not from the traditional land owning elite with a power-base in Manila. Duterte’s administration has been portrayed as a fresh break from past governments. His electoral campaign was focused on domestic concerns; progressive social ordinances and the crack down on drugs. He promised change on a national scale. On the issue of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW), Duterte has pronounced that working abroad should become ‘optional not a necessity’.

Duterte’s position on OFW is a marked change from the attitude of former Filipino presidents, beginning with Ferdinand Marcos in 1974. Marcos issued the Labour Code which was to promote overseas contract work and reap whatever economic benefits could be gained from the outflow, especially in terms of foreign exchange and employment. Through the presidency of Marcos and his successors the Philippines was to become a specific case study whereby labour export was adopted as a government policy.

During President Corazon Aquino‘s era, in the 1980s, the Filipino government began to legislate social justice and human rights for local and overseas labour. The 1995 trial and execution of the Filipina domestic worker, Flor Contemplacion in Singapore, turned the protection of migrant worker’s rights into a burning political issue. This was to spur the official Philippines Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) to focus further on migrant worker welfare and rights which nonetheless failed to satisfy many of the government’s critics in the civil society.

Remittances and its Social Dimension

Within the scale of the family unit in the Philippines, those who have family members sending remittances back home have a more elastic spending ability on higher education, health care, housing, recreation activities, durables, and transport and communications. Labour migration for the Philippines is a crucial means in alleviating poverty and inequality. However, it has an adverse impact on human capital gain and social dimension.

Brain drain has remained a major concern for the Filipino employment and education sector. Due to limited domestic job opportunities, the educated may choose to withdraw from the Filipino job market and instead embark on a protracted job search process to secure a foreign job. Percentages whereby Filipino graduates fail to find local jobs are high and incidence of Filipino graduates finding jobs abroad below their skill expertise and educational qualifications is indicative of the de-skilling of labour.

Over-education is the over investment in higher education fuelled by the expectation of a higher return in foreign jobs. Since the objective is to land a foreign job, the investment will be made regardless of the job situation in the domestic economy causing a mismatch between the skills training of higher education graduates and actual skills required by the Philippine industry.

The Filipino nursing sector is an apt example of this phenomenon. The steady supply of Filipino nurses abroad is assured by the sustained enrolment in nursing programmes, the opening of more nursing schools and the local nursing labour market which serves as training ground for future overseas employers. As a result, the Philippine health care system is characterised by the high turnover rate of nursing personnel, acute shortage of skilled nurses, declining standards in nursing education and health care and under remuneration of nurses and nursing educators in the country.

The social dimension of labour migration issues in the Philippines consists of the breakdown of traditional family life, high divorce rate, single parenthood, infidelity and wayward children. For the migrant workers themselves, unexpected working conditions that compromise on health, basic human and women’s rights result in a state of psycho-social stress. The need for psycho-social intervention is necessary as many migrant workers return home with enduring depression and pessimism having undergone low pay, long working hours and oppressive contracts.

What the OFW Expect from Duterte

‘Kabayan4Change’ was launched in the United States with Filipino migrant workers presenting their aspirations for change under the first 100 days of the Duterte government. Through ‘Kabayan4Change’, overseas Filipinos are joining with progressive organisations, sectoral groups, indigenous people and the struggling majority back home in demanding an economic transformation that makes it unnecessary for Filipinos to seek work abroad to survive.

Initiated by ‘Migrante International’, the platform calls for the implementation of a national industrialisation programme and genuine land reform to end the current and unsustainable import dependent and export oriented economy of the Philippines.

The ‘Kabayan4Change’ movement also calls on the Duterte government to address the socio economic roots of armed conflict, social injustices and forced migrations. In early 2016 it was reported that a fall in oil prices and the general slowdown in global trade might render the OFW sector as a sunset industry that the Philippine government needs to get rid of. This requires Duterte to continue keeping his eye on the domestic front and implementing robust measures to lay the foundation for a strong capital intensive domestic industry that fuels an appetite for entrepreneurial venture.

However, this is not realistic. Most accounts on the Philippine economy see OFW remittances and business processing operations as the two dominant contributors to national GDP (US$26 billion and US$23 billion respectively) for many years to come. At the moment, the development of other revenue generating and job creating sectors is not yielding the outcome desired by the policy planners. Therefore, reliance on the contributions of the OFW will remain critical.

*Arunajeet Kaur PhD is a Visiting Research Fellow with the Centre for Non Traditional Security (NTS) Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

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