When a veteran war reporter like Robert Fisk constructs his argument regarding the siege of Aleppo based on ‘watching’ video footage, then one can truly comprehend the near impossibility of adequate media coverage on the war in Syria.

In a recent article in the British ‘Independent’, Fisk reflects on the siege, uprising and atrocious Nazi massacres in Warsaw, Poland in 1944. The terribly high cost of that war leads him to reject the French assertion that the current siege in Aleppo is the ‘worst massacre since World War Two.’

“Why do we not see the defending fighters, as we do on the Warsaw films? Why are we not told about their political allegiance, as we most assuredly are on the Warsaw footage? Why do we not see ‘rebel’ military hardware – as well as civilian targets – being hit by artillery and air attack as we do on the Polish newsreels?,” he asks, further demonstrating what he perceives to be the flaw of such a comparison.

Not that Fisk doubts that pictures of the dead and wounded children in eastern Aleppo are real; his argument is largely against the one-sidedness of the coverage, of demonizing one party, while sparing another.

Without reserve, I always find comparing massacres – to find out which is worse – tasteless, if not inhumane. What is the point in this, aside from mitigating the effect of a terrible tragedy, by comparing it to a hypothetically much greater tragedy? Or, as the French have done, perhaps exaggerating the human toll to create the type of fear that often leads to reckless political and military action?

The French and other NATO countries have used this tactic repeatedly in the past. In fact, this is how the war on Libya was concocted, purportedly to stave off the imminent Tripoli ‘genocide’ and Benghazi ‘bloodbath.’ The Americans used it in Iraq, successfully. The Israelis have perfected it in Gaza.

In fact, the United States’ intervention in Iraq was always tied to some sort of imagined global threat that, unsurprisingly, was never proven. Former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, was so eager to take part in the conquest of Iraq in 2003 that he contrived intelligence alleging that Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, was able to deploy weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes from the moment such an order was given.

The US went even further: it was only recently revealed that the US had hired a London-based firm, Bell Pottinger, to create fake al-Qaeda videos and news reports that were designed to appear as if written by legitimate Arabic media.

The propaganda videos were ‘personally approved’ by the commander of the US-led coalition forces in Iraq at the time, General David Petraeus, Salon and others reported.

We still do not know the specific content of many of these videos and to what extent such material, which cost US tax payers $540 million dollars, influenced events on the ground and our understanding of these events.

Considering the high financial cost and the fact that the company worked directly from inside Baghdad’s ‘Camp Victory’, ‘side-by-side’ with high-ranking US officials, one can only imagine the degree of deceit imparted upon innocent viewers and readers for years.

Compounded with the fact that the whole reason behind the war was a lie, the then Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, had no intention of ever informing reporters of what was really transpiring on the ground, and that countless reporters agreed to be ‘embedded’ with US-British forces, thus further contributing to the one-sided narrative. One is left to wonder if any truth ever emerged from Iraq.

Then, again, we know that hundreds of thousands have died in that catastrophic military adventure, that Iraq is not better off, and that thousands more are still being killed because this is what happens when countries are invaded, destabilized, hurriedly reassembled and then left to lick their wounds, alone.

The chaotic violence and sectarianism in Iraq are the direct outcome of the US invasion and occupation, which were constructed on official lies and dishonest media reporting.

Is it too much to ask, then, that we learn from those dreadful mistakes, to understand that when all is said and done, nothing will remain but mass graves and grieving nations?

As for the lies that enable wars, and allow the various sides to clinch on their straw arguments of selected morality, few ever have the intellectual courage to take responsibility when they are proven wrong. We simply move on, uncaring for the victims of our intellectual squabbles.

“The extreme bias shown in foreign media coverage of similar events in Iraq and Syria will be a rewarding subject for PhD students looking at the uses and abuses of propaganda down the ages,” wrote war reporter, Patrick Cockburn.

He is right, of course, but as soon as his report on media bias was published, he was attacked and dismissed by both sides on social media. From their perspective, a proper position would be for him to completely adopt the version of events as seen by one side, and totally ignore the other.

Yet, with both sides of the war having no respect for media or journalists – the list of journalists killed in Syria keeps on growing – no impartial journalist is allowed to carry out his or her work in accordance with the minimum standards of reporting.

Thus, the ‘truth’ can only be gleaned based on deductive reasoning – as many of us have successfully done, reporting on Iraq and Palestine.

Of course, there will always been the self-tailored activist-journalist-propagandist variety who will continue to cheer for death and destruction in the name of whatever ideology they choose to follow. They abide by no reasoning, but their own convenient logic – that which is only capable of demonizing their enemies and lionizing their friends.

Unfortunately, these media trolls are the ones shaping the debate on much of what is happening in the Middle East today.

While the coverage of war in the past has given rise to many daring journalists – Seymour Hersh in Vietnam, Tariq Ayyoub in Iraq, photo-journalist Zoriah Miller, and hundreds more – the war in Syria is destroying journalistic integrity and, with it, our readers’ ability to decipher one of the most convoluted conflicts of the modern era.

In Syria, as in Iraq and other warring regions in the Middle East, the ‘truth’ is not shaped by facts, but opinions, themselves fashioned by blind allegiances, not truly humanistic principles or even simple common sense.

“Loyalty to petrified opinions never yet broke a chain or freed a human soul in this world — and never will,” wrote Mark Twain many years ago.

It was true then, as it is true in the Middle East today.

The mystery of how Father Christmas can deliver presents to 700 million children in one night, fit down the chimney and arrive without being seen or heard has been ‘solved’ by a physicist at the University of Exeter.

Santa and his reindeer zoom around the world at such speed that – according to relativity theory – they would shrink, enabling Father Christmas and a huge sack of presents to fit down chimneys.

Dr Katy Sheen, a physicist in the Geography department at the University of Exeter, has also found a scientific explanation for why Santa is not heard arriving by children, and why they rarely catch a glimpse of him on Christmas eve.

She  explained to children at the University of Exeter, that Santa’s stealth delivery is partly explained by special relativity theory devised by Albert Einstein, whom Dr Sheen thinks bares a passing resemblance to Santa.

Relativity theory explains how Father Christmas can fit down the chimney. At the speeds he needs to travel to deliver presents to every child, Father Christmas shrinks – or gets thinner – in the direction he is travelling. And he has to be careful not to stop for a mince pie in a chimney, or he could grow back to full size!

Dr Sheen also explains why Father Christmas appears not to have aged throughout the ages, because relativity can slow down clocks.

When Dr Sheen was seven years old she wrote a letter to Father Christmas asking why he never got any older (letter attached). She received a response in shaky handwriting telling her it was ‘all magic’. But the budding physicist was not convinced and wanted a rational explanation – which 26 years later she has now found.

As evidence of how Father Christmas’s enormously fast delivery round has kept the years off him, she will present a picture of St Nicholas from 1901 and a photo from this year to the children at her talk.

The physicist has calculated that Santa and his reindeer would have to travel at about 10 million kilometres per hour to deliver presents to every child expected to celebrate Christmas in 31 hours (taking into account world time zones).

If millions of children have been good, and deserve bigger stockings, he may need to travel even faster. Such speed would make him change from red to green and, at greater speeds, he would disappear! Children would not be able to recognise him as he would appear as a rainbow-coloured blur, eventually disappearing to the human eye.

Travelling at more than 200,000 times faster than Usain Bolt, the world’s fastest man, the laws of physics explain why Father Christmas is rarely seen by children while delivering presents.

The Doppler effect would make Santa change colour because the light waves he releases would get squashed at such a high speed.

The Doppler effect also explains why children cannot hear Father Christmas arrive. As Santa and his sleigh approach, the sound of bells and his deep ‘ho, ho, ho’ would get higher and higher (like when an ambulance siren whizzes by) and then become completely silent, because he would move beyond human hearing range. Even the sound of Santa urging on Rudolph would become unrecognisable, and then inaudible to the human ear.

If children hear a bang on Christmas night, it may not be the sound of Santa dropping his presents, landing on their roof in his sleigh, or sliding down the chimney with a plop. Santa’s reindeer could have broken the speed of sound, resulting in a ‘sonic boom.’

Dr Sheen, a physicist working in the University of Exeter’s Geography department, is not planning to present her research to a peer-reviewed journal (it’s prepared with the festive spirit in mind), and has done the calculations in her own time to interest children in science and physics.

Sheen will demonstrate the impact of the Doppler effect – which would make Santa able to deliver his presents without detection – by letting the children listen to the sound of a speeding ambulance, even though it is much slower than Father Christmas and his sleigh.

The Doppler effect is responsible for making a siren, such as on an ambulance or a police car, increase in pitch as it comes towards you and lower pitched as it drives away. This is because the wave length changes when it moves towards and away from you.

Dr Sheen calculated how fast Father Christmas would have to travel by working out the number of households likely to be celebrating Christmas around the world, along with the number of children likely to be in them. She hopes her explanation for Santa’s stealth delivery system – and therefore his very existence – will inspire children to take a greater interest in physics, and put a science kit on the list of presents they want in their stockings.

“Visiting around 700 million children in 31 hours would mean he would have to travel at 10 million kilometres an hour if he is to deliver presents to every child,” Dr Sheen said. “How does Santa manage to reach these phenomenal speeds? Well that’s magic! However, he would certainly need a lot of fuel – so don’t forget his glass of sherry, a mince pie or two and some carrots for the reindeer!”

When the frozen Arctic tundra starts to thaw around June of each year, the snow melting and the ground softening, the soil may release a large pulse of greenhouse gases, namely, carbon dioxide and methane. Little has been known about such releases.

Now scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in collaboration with a team of other scientists taking measurements both in the field and in the lab, have quantified the scale of such releases and explained the underlying mechanisms for the phenomenon.

Their study was based on a spring pulse in northern Alaska that they documented in 2014 that included CO2 emissions equivalent to 46 percent of the net CO2 that is absorbed in the summer months and methane emissions that added 6 percent to summer fluxes. What’s more, recent climate trends may make such emissions more frequent, the scientists conclude.

“We can see the effects of climate change happening more rapidly in the Arctic than in any other part of world,” said Berkeley Lab scientist Naama Raz-Yaseef. “So we need to understand the processes that are occurring and what to expect in the future. The amount of CO2 and methane (CH¬¬4) in the atmosphere determines the greenhouse effect–so we need to know more about these sources.”

Their study was recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in a paper titled, “Large CO2 and CH4 Emissions from Polygonal Tundra During Spring Thaw in Northern Alaska.” Raz-Yaseef, an ecohydrologist, was the lead author. Co-authors were Berkeley Lab researchers Margaret Torn, Yuxin Wu, and Tim Kneafsey; Dave Billesbach of the University of Nebraska; Anna Liljedahl and Vladimir Romanovsky of the University of Alaska; David Cook of Argonne National Laboratory; and Stan Wullschleger of Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The study was a project of DOE’s Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE-Arctic), which seeks to gain a predictive understanding of the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem’s feedback to climate. The team used two towers 4 meters high to collect gas flux readings. The towers are located about 5 km apart near Barrow, Alaska, the northernmost town in the U.S, one tower operated by NGEE and the other by DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility.

“Typically we just measure what happens during summer,” Raz-Yaseef said. “We assume nothing happens during winter because it’s frozen, so there’s no biological activity. But in 2014 we measured a big flux of carbon and methane emitted from the ground, at the very beginning of thaw and snowmelt. At first we didn’t know if it was real or a measurement error. Then we confirmed it with another tower 5 km away (the ARM tower), which measured a very similar flux of the same size during the same period.”

That spring they measured a total of three pulses, the longest lasting five days. These findings are important in understanding the carbon balance of ecosystems in the Arctic. So far, the Arctic is considered a carbon sink, meaning it absorbs more CO2 than it emits on an annual basis, thanks mainly to the vegetation that grows in the summer. (Oceans and forests are far larger carbon sinks.) “Given our findings, the Arctic is an even smaller carbon sink than we thought since during some years nearly half of the summer uptake of CO2 is offset with these spring emissions,” Raz-Yaseef said.

Gases trapped in the middle layer

Why is the soil releasing gases? Soils everywhere are full of microbes, and microbial activity emits gases. What makes the Arctic different is the way the ground freezes. As temperatures start to drop in the late fall, the soil freezes from the permafrost up and from the surface down. The active layer in between is trapped in the middle.

“For about a month after the surface freezes, the middle layer is still active,” Raz-Yaseef explained. “The temperature is still around 0 (Celsius), so microbial activity continues to take place, producing carbon and methane, but it’s trapped beneath the surface ice. It can’t be emitted, so it’s stored throughout the winter.”

When the ice cap thaws in spring, the gases escape to the atmosphere.

The scientists confirmed these observations in several ways. First, they measured soil temperatures every 10 cm down through the permafrost 1.5 meters below ground every 5 minutes year-round. Second, they extracted large, frozen soil cores that were transported to the laboratory for experiments.

“(Berkeley Lab scientist) Yuxin Wu thawed a core under controlled conditions, but just like in nature,” Raz-Yaseef said. “Just when the surface ice melted in the lab, he measured a large flux of carbon and methane. This is formed from gases trapped in the soil over winter.”

Separately, Berkeley Lab scientist Timothy Kneafsey took CT scans of hundreds of frozen cores and found gas-rich channels and pockets near the surface, which the scientists posited could serve as accumulation zones and pathways for gas flow.

Spring pulses not annual but may become more frequent

In fact, it’s these channels and pockets that enable the emission pulses, the scientists conclude in their paper. The spring pulses were not detected in 2013 or 2016, and 2015 could not be measured due to equipment malfunction. Since it’s not an annual event they analyzed the conditions under which the pulses might occur.

“The process is more likely to occur when there are events of rain on ice,” Raz-Yaseef said. “When it thaws and freezes repeatedly, that produces cracks in the frozen soil, and through these cracks the gas can be emitted.”

During warmer years, the scientists expect the spring pulses to be more frequent. “We expect there will be more gas built up due to longer and warmer fall seasons and more frequent pulse events due to more rain on ice in the spring,” Raz-Yaseef said.

One thing that’s for sure is the scientists now know not to ignore gas emissions in early spring. “Now we’ll put the towers up much, much earlier, just in case there’s another event, we’ll be sure to catch it,” Raz-Yaseef said. “It’s one of those things, once you’re aware of it, you open your eyes and looks for it.”

A human rights group has released a report on the worrying condition of North Korean laborers dispatched to Russia to undertake dangerous work in slave-like conditions.

The North Korean Human Rights Database Center in Seoul held a seminar to talk about its report, Human Rights Conditions of North Korean Laborers Dispatched to Russia as Woodcutters and Construction Workers on Dec. 12.

At the seminar, the group discussed the poor conditions of North Korean woodcutters and construction workers in Russia. For the report, the group interviewed 50 North Korean defectors who were former workers in Russia.

“Since the 1940s, North Korea has been dispatching woodcutters and construction workers to Russia. In 2000, the number of workers were 8,700 and it skyrocketed to 47,365 in 2015,” said Park Chan-hong, a researcher at the center.

“Most of the workers are suffering from illegal detention, torture, extrajudicial punishment, forced labor and so on. Most of all, around 90 percent of their wages are exploited by the North Korea authorities,” Park said.

“To improve their human rights the South Korean government should ask the North Korean or Russian governments to put the matter right,” he added.

By Derek Verbakel*

Predicting the implications of Donald Trump’s presidency for the Middle East requires informed guesswork in drawing links from campaign rhetoric to a more coherent approach or ensuing foreign policy. Trump, who apparently favours ‘isolationism’, seems averse to the United States’ longstanding bipartisan pursuit of overambitious policies in the region. His discourse reflects a shallow and myopic worldview privileging winner/loser binaries over interdependency, and he identifies little to gain from a Middle East wracked by complex and chaotic conflicts. His administration appears poised to shift the methods of US military interventions in the region and recalibrate relations with several regional actors. Such an approach could further churn an already unstable Middle East.

Trump’s foreign policy direction will be heavily influenced by the advisors and officials surrounding him. The current roster portends an inflow of deeply ideological thinking ill-suited to apprehending the complexities of regional politics. National Security Advisor Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn sees an existential threat posed by so-called ‘Islamic terrorism’, which he conflates with ‘Islam’ and ‘Islamism’. Walid Phares, a key Trump advisor and former ideologue of a sectarian Christian militia during Lebanon’s civil war, also propounds a variant of long-discredited ‘Clash of Civilizations’ theory. The incoming Secretary of State can be expected to hold similar views.

Such an outlook will guide US policy in Iraq and Syria, where Trump appears committed to reducing the presence of American ground personnel while sustaining military pressure to combat designated terrorist groups. Trump suggests he will coordinate – if not collaborate – with Russia, Syrian President Assad’s main backer beside Iran, which would be interpreted by the pro-Assad coalition as a green light to intensify their brutal campaign to recapture territory from rebels. But untold consequences could emerge from resulting growth of Russian influence in the Middle East.

Also likely will be a withdrawal of US support to more ‘moderate’ opposition forces in Syria, who will continue to dwindle while targeted alongside extremist al-Qaeda-affiliates and IS by Assad-aligned forces. This would advance the narratives and leading position of extremists within the opposition, who will never disappear while Assad remains in power. Absent a widely accepted political ‘solution’, this would prolong the conflict and increase displacement of Syrians inside and outside the country. Trump advisors have also called for more US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria with less emphasis on avoiding civilian deaths, and this too would fuel radicalism in these countries and worldwide.

Trump may also seek closer relations with regional leaders more sympathetic to his stance on Syria and whose authoritarian leanings elicit his admiration. Alongside Assad and others, Egypt’s Sisi and Turkey’s Erdoğan could reinforce a decades-old US policy of prioritising ‘stability’ under repressive leaders over the pursuit of democratic transformations and human rights in the region.

Also necessary will be to account for the wishes of regional allies, particularly among the Gulf Arab states, to see Assad unseated and Iran’s growing regional power thereby diminished. Indeed, Trump’s supposed Syria policy would spare Iran a huge geopolitical blow, as the Assad regime’s survival anchors Iran’s spheres of influence extending through Baghdad and Damascus to Beirut.

Trump has stated the 2015 Iran nuclear deal will be renegotiated. Yet there would be no appetite for this from Iran or the remaining P5+1, who derive economic and security benefits from the agreement. Unilaterally dismantling the agreement would be infeasible, and given Iran’s significant role in Iraq and Syria, he will be restrained by the need to maintain a working relationship with Tehran to fight IS.

Trump could attempt to subvert the deal in various ways. However, widespread perception in Iran of Washington’s treacherousness could vindicate and benefit rivals of President Rouhani. Seeking re-election in May 2017 and to further ‘normalise’ Iran’s international relations, Rouhani touts the deal as a huge triumph. But with an electoral victory, hardliners could pursue an agenda to resume Iran’s nuclear program without international monitoring. A new phase of conflict drawing in the US, Israel, and the Gulf sheikhdoms could result from steps in this direction.

Also of interest to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is that unlike previous US presidents from both parties, Trump claims Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank is not an obstacle to reaching an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord. While Trump is unlikely to pronounce dead the ‘two-state solution’ which all interested parties purportedly desire, there will be no significant pressure on Israel to halt construction of settlements deemed illegal under international law.

Trump has claimed he will resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But due not only to alienation from much of the Republican foreign policy establishment, he lacks capable and inclined diplomats and a plan for them to carry out. A substantial diplomatic initiative from Washington is at best a distant prospect, and absent any progress towards curbing systemic violence against Palestinians or their accession to statehood, chances of another Palestinian uprising and more attacks inside Israel will increase.

Of little concern to Trump will be the consequences of his policies for the welfare of the Middle East’s peoples. They, like regional leaders, hold mixed opinions on the promise his presidency brings. But widely anticipated is that as the Trump administration and its foreign policy trajectories take shape, so too will ramifications for stability in the Middle East.

* Derek Verbakel
Researcher, IReS, IPCS

An Italian priest is under fire from locals for deciding against setting up the typical Nativity scene in his town’s cemetery this year, Italian news source Corriere della Sera reported on Friday.

The priest, Father Sante Braggie, was concerned that the display would offend Muslims, as well as atheists and people of other faiths.

Fr. Braggie serves as the chaplain of the Municipal Cemetery of Cremona and curate of the local parish in northern Italy. The Nativity was typically set up in the cemetery, and would have been visible from the part of the cemetery reserved for Muslim graves, he said.

“A crib positioned within sight of them could be seen as a lack of respect for followers of other faiths, hurt the sensibilities of Muslims, as well as Indians and even atheists,” Braggie said, according to a translation published in Express.

“In short, it would be a mess.”

Father Oreste Mori, who used to serve at the cemetery, said the move was unbelieveable.

“We cannot renounce our culture and traditions. That would be an unpardonable weakness,” he said. “I am, for the time being at least, in Italy, not Saudi Arabia,” Fr. Mori added.

Several town councilors have also been working to reinstate the Nativity display since the news broke. Town councilor Cristina Cappellini said the Nativity was a symbol “of our culture, of our traditions, of our Christian identity.”

Italy has a Muslim population of approximately 1.6 million people. More than half of all Muslims live in the north of the country. According to a study from the interior ministry study, the largest group of Muslims – approximately 120,000 – live in Milan, a city approximately 60 miles north of Cremona.

Like the rest of Europe, Italy has experienced a sharp increase in Muslim and other refugees from the Middle East in the past two years.

Islam is not an officially recognized religion by the state in Italy.

By Dr Subhash Kapila

The Chabahar Port in Eastern Iran and Gwadar in Western Pakistan, both on the North Arabian Sea littoral have emerged as the latest chess-pieces in the maritime Great Power Game unfolding between India and China in the Indian Ocean.

Gwadar at the terminal end of the much-vaunted China -Pakistan Economic Corridor provides China with a much-needed strategic outpost in the Indian Ocean facilitating China to overcome its ‘Malacca Dilemma’ in terms of its energy security needs and as a naval base for China’s intended sizeable naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Gwadar’s economic utility is China-centric with limited collateral economic gains for Pakistan through which passes the major portion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The strategic significance for China of Gwadar far outweighs the economic significance simply because the hinterland of Gwadar does not generate much economic activity, even potentially.

Afghanistan’s strained relations with Pakistan and Pakistan Army’s incessant disruptive activities including suicide bombings in Kabul rule out Gwadar ever serving as the entrepot for land-locked Afghanistan. Gwadar therefore serves outright China’s strategic and economic interests, only.

China in the last eight years has raced to fast-track Gwadar’s development after displacing Singapore which had taken out a lease for forty years. Gwadar’s development received greater impetus with Chinese President Xi Jinping assuming power and his announcement of the US $ $ 52 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Obviously, Gwadar is the lynch-pin of the Chinese President’s Great China Dream’ and China’s latest unveiled Maritime Strategy to build China into a major naval power with global reach.

Against the backdrop of these fast-moving strategic developments undertaken by China, over-riding strategic imperatives exist for India to fast-track its long-awaited Chabahar Port project which in terms of conceptualisation predates the strategic interest of China in Gwadar. It would be wrong to term India’s strategic interest in Chabahar as a reaction to China’s presence in Gwadar.

India and Iran have had a mutual interest in development of Chabahar Port right from the days of the Shah of Iran but it could not take-off due to the Shah’s downfall. Chabahar again figured in strategic calculations of India and Iran in 2003 when agreements were signed by Indian PM Vajpayee. However, with UN sanctions imposed on Iran, once again, the Chabahar Project got stymied.

Geopolitical contemporary developments in 2016 prompted not only Iran and India but also now Afghanistan to sign a Trilateral Agreement for development of Chabahar Port as an example of regional economic cooperation and integration. Details of this momentous initiative stand covered in my SAAG Paper earlier this year.

Iran and India have both strategic and economic convergences in the development of Chabahar as a major port. For Afghanistan, Chabahar linked by Indian development assistance through Iran to Afghanistan’s Ring Road enables Afghanistan to break Pakistan’s economic stranglehold and Pakistan’s subtle economic coercive strategies to determine Afghanistan’s diplomatic policy options

India and Iran have shared strategic convergences on the security and stability of Afghanistan. Both nations will have more significant strategic access to Afghanistan. For India it is far more significant as with no geographical contiguity with Afghanistan, the Pakistani Establishment predominated by the Pakistan Army has consistently denied India economic access to Afghanistan.

In the same vein, India as a result of the above is also being denied land-routes access to Central Asia markets. India can now reach these markets through Chabahar and the North South Corridor in which Russia too is interested.

But far outweighing the economic significance of Chabahar and under-played both by India and Iran is the strategic significance of Chabahar when developed to its fullest potential.

Iran would be able to have an Indian Ocean deep-sea port, the first for Iran outside the Gulf. Iran has had notable naval ambitions to emerge as a regional naval power in the North Arabian segment of the Indian Ocean. Chabahar’s development and the economic activity that it would generate would enable Iran to undertake sizeable development of its outlying Eastern Regions bordering Pakistan. It wold also enable Iran to adopt a stronger defensive posture on its Eastern Border with Pakistan, and neutralise Pakistan’s propensity of providing its territory as a springboard for external military intervention in Iran.

India as an Emerged Power with enlarged areas of influence and areas of interest could do well by having logistic access to ports in partner countries both in its immediate neighbourhood and further afield. In this context, Chabahar is significant for India for more reasons than one. While India may not be viewing Chabahar as a naval base as China has done with Gwadar, but still many naval advantages do flow for India, otherwise too. Chabahar could be a port of logistics support for India enabling Indian Navy ships to put in greater time ‘on station’ when operating in the Gulf Region . Similarly, enhanced maritime surveillance of the North Arabian Sea and especially of the Chinese Navy in the region would be facilitated.

It needs to be noted that Iran did extend an invitation to China and Pakistan to participate in the development of Chabahar but they did not express interest. Reasons for their disinterest are fathomable. Only Japan has expressed willingness to participate in the Indian effort to develop Chabahar.

Chinese commentaries in its official media argue that geopolitical priorities can change and sometime in the future Iran may not have the same strategic convergences with India as it has today and therefore Indian strategic focus on Chabahar may hit a dead-end. China forgets that it also applies equally.to China’s obsessive strategic focus on Gwadar, with Balochistan in turbulence and Pakistan’s own future uncertain. There are already domestic rumblings within Pakistan on the Gwadar project.

The United States under its new President may frown on the Chabahar project and if it adopts a hard-line policy on Iran, then India would have to be prepared to shrug off US pressures on Chabahar. The United States however would soon realise as I have always maintained in my writings that if the United States intends for continued embedment in The Gulf Region it cannot be despite Iran. To that extent, the United States would be well advised to factor this in its responses and also factor-in India’s strategic sensitivities on its imperatives for development of Chabahar as a potential strategic asset.

The Indian Ocean is one area where India gets backed by the United States, Europe, Japan and Australia in terms of not permitting Chinese maritime and naval sway over the maritime expanse of the Indian Ocean. To that extent Chabahar is an important strategic asset not only for India but more so in the interests of the others as it would impede any Chinese open run to the Hormuz Straits.

In view of the above analysis what emerges is that strong strategic imperatives exist for India to pursue the Chabahar Port Development Project with dynamic and renewed vigour. It is in India’s strategic interests and so also Iran’s strategic interests.

Concluding, it needs to be emphasised that the Iran -India Strategic Partnership was not a paper exercise or mere political signalling. This Strategic Partnership enshrined the strategic convergences that bind India and Iran together to aim for regional security as regional powers of long-standing civilisational ties and the joint intentions of both the countries to advance ahead. Chabahar should emerge as the flagship of this Strategic Partnership.

US President Barack Obama spoke by phone Thursday with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey to express his condolences for those killed and wounded in last weekend’s terrorist attacks in Istanbul carried out by a wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and for Turkish soldiers killed in Syria in the fight against ISIL.

According to the White House, the two leaders agreed to stand resolute in the fight against terrorism.

Additionally, President Obama thanked President Erdogan for Turkey’s efforts to broker a ceasefire in Aleppo to allow for the safe evacuation of fighters and civilians wishing to depart the city under the supervision of international humanitarian organizations, the White House said.

The White House said the two leaders agreed on the need for a nationwide cessation of hostilities and a political solution to the conflict.

Additionally, President Obama and President Erdogan reviewed the progress of the Coalition’s campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and stressed the importance of continued close coordination between the United States and Turkey to build on these successes, the White House said.

By Dr. Arshad M. Khan*

President Obama’s final foreign policy speech at MacDill air force base in Tampa, betrayed its purpose through the venue. The Tampa, Florida, base is home to Special Operations Command and Central Command — Special Operations playing an ever increasing role in counter terrorism.

The gist of the speech seemed to assert that the US is and should stay true to its values when fighting terrorism. An assertion when at the same time Congressman Ted Lieu, a California Democrat, has written a letter to Secretary John Kerry warning him the US could be charged with war crimes in aiding Saudi Arabia’s bombing campaign in Yemen. The US helps through in-air refueling of planes. The Congressman claims there are 70 documented incidents targeting civilians including women and children. Yemen itself never had a refugee crisis through years of civil conflict, that is until the merciless Saudi air onslaught.

What did Libya do to incur US wrath? It was fighting a civil war where the casualties were in the hundreds and the rebels themselves not without foreign instigators. Look at Libya now. From leading Africa on the Human Development Index scale to being bombed into a shambles without an effective government. By the way, what was the strategic (or for that matter even tactical) value of bombing a precious and expensive water system bringing water from the south to Tripoli? And how did it help the civilian population of Tripoli? Now, of course, those who can, in Libya, are fleeing to Europe. In fact, sub-Saharan Africans who would come to Libya seeking work now try also to get to Europe.

Ask the Libyans who they blame for their problems and the answer comes back without equivocation, the US. It was the leading cause of the country’s destruction. Ask the Yemenis … ditto. It is the country supplying the planes, the bombs, the air-refueling. Without it there would be no air campaign. Ask the Syrians as a National Public Radio reporter did this week. They certainly do not blame President Bashar Assad, who they feel is doing well at keeping the country together. No, they blame the Saudis, the Gulf States and their arms supplier-in-chief, the US.

Ask the Somalis. It was a U.S. sponsored invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia that destroyed the last chance of Somali stability, continuing the killing. The Islamic Courts regime could not have chosen a worse name, which sent danger signals rippling through the US administration, bringing fears of a Taliban and al-Qaeda replay. And it was a quiet, studious Somali student who went on a rampage at Ohio State University just over a week ago. Mr. Trump has been there this week to express his condolences and to repeat his anti-Muslim immigration and “extreme vetting” creed.

Ask the Iraqis and the Afghans. A vast swathe from North Africa through Yemen into Afghanistan and Pakistan are embroiled in conflict. Estimates of deaths in Iraq vary from 200,000 ascribed to violence to a million from the ravages of war. The war casualties in Afghanistan according to the Watson Institute at Brown University stand at around 111,000 with at least as many wounded, and continue to increase after a US presence for 15 years. Deaths from the effects of war among the population are not easily determined but as in Iraq are likely to be even higher.

The question to ask is whether 19 persons, primarily from Saudi Arabia, responsible for the 9/11 attacks warrant this wholesale killing. And for what? If anything, the situation and the fear factor in the US are worse and one of the reasons for Donald Trump’s win.

Is this heavy-handed policy actually fighting terrorism successfully, or is it alienating populations enough to be a proximate cause?

About the author:
*Dr. Arshad M. Khan is a former Professor based in the US. Educated at King’s College London, OSU and The University of Chicago, he has a multidisciplinary background that has frequently informed his research. Thus he headed the analysis of an innovation survey of Norway, and his work on SMEs published in major journals has been widely cited. He has for several decades also written for the press: These articles and occasional comments have appeared in print media such as The Dallas Morning News, Dawn (Pakistan), The Fort Worth Star Telegram, The Monitor, The Wall Street Journal and others. On the internet, he has written for Antiwar.com, Asia Times, Common Dreams, Counterpunch, Countercurrents, Dissident Voice, Eurasia Review and Modern Diplomacy among many. His work has been quoted in the U.S. Congress and published in its Congressional Record.

Source:
This article was published at Modern Diplomacy

By Tapan Bharadwaj*

The sixth plenary session of the 18th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee was held in Beijing on 24-27 October 2016. Plenary sessions are important in understanding the opaque political functioning of the Chinese government. The Central Committee decided to officially recognize President Xi Jingping as the “core leader”. With this Xi joins the league of leaders such as Deng Xiaoping, who had coined the word ‘core leader’. Deng called Mao Zedong and himself core leaders of their generations, and Jiang Zemin of the third generation of the CPC leadership. However, Hu Jintao, Jiang’s successor, was never given this recognition.

Deng Xiaoping’s retirement from politics had brought an end to the era of strongman politics, centred around one man. For the past two decades, collective leadership of political bureau members of the Central Committee is the governing principal of the CPC. The convention of general secretary of CPC as first among equals in the political bureau emerged with Jiang Zemin’s succession to power. Will Xi’s recognition as core leader change or challenge this convention? This question needs to be assessed within the broader context of Xi’s presidency over the past three years and four documents issued by CPC.

This article will highlight the important aspects of four documents issued after the plenary session, which includes the party communiqué. It will look at the importance of Xi becoming ‘Core leader’ and address the question whether collective leadership will remain the guiding principle for governance within the party?

Disciplining the party

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee announced the agenda on 27 September itself, a month before the actual gathering.

The plenary session passed two related documents on the subject of discipline in the party. The first document titled “Some Norms Regarding Intra-party Political Life under New Circumstances” asks party members to act according to the CPC’s basic line by safeguarding the authority of the Central Committee and maintaining close ties with the people. The second document “Regulations Regarding Intra-party Supervision” asks to uphold the CPC’s leadership, strengthen party building, promote the comprehensive and strict governance of the party, and maintain the party’s status and purity. Both documents stress upon strict governance and centrality of the Central Committee in the CPC’s decision making. The objectives are to prevent old problems like corruption from recurring and new ones like income and regional inequality from spreading. The strict party governance will increase the CPC’s capability to solve its internal problems and defuse the challenges of party governance at various levels.

The third document issued was Xi’s interpretation of the first two documents. Xi said that the documents were introduced to supplement the layout of the CPC’s four comprehensives, a strategy to promote reform and opening up, refine the socialist modernization drive, as well as to adhere to and develop socialism with Chinese characteristics. The four comprehensives stand for all-round moderately prosperous society, deepening of reform, advancement of the rule of law and strict governing of the CPC. According to Xi, the sixth session addresses the fourth comprehensive while the remaining three have already been addressed by the third, fourth and fifth plenary sessions.

Revisiting the idea of collective leadership in the present context

The major transition in leadership and governance has been witnessed in the past two decades with the emergence of the collective leadership principle. The 2007 Party congress communiqué defines collective leadership as “a system with a division of responsibilities among individual leaders in an effort to prevent arbitrary decision making by a single top leader.” The aim was to ensure that no individual dominated the party leadership.

Today, Xi is the most powerful leader in the party. His tough national anti-corruption campaign has achieved significant success. The CPC’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the nodal agency on anti-corruption, has stated that 1.01 million officials have been investigated for corruption since Xi took charges.

It has created an opposition of unknown nature within the party, where party loyalists are difficult to identify. Five out of seven Politburo members of the standing committee are retiring next year. A strong leader is needed to restore the collective leadership system in the party. Hence, CPC’s decision to recognize Xi as the core leader is a calculated move to avoid the emergence of any crisis in the party. This will help in continuing the policies without delay and disturbances. Xi’s national anti-corruption campaign, which has delivered its promise to target tigers and flies equally has had significant outcomes. 34 ministerial-level officials have reportedly been sentenced under this campaign, which will strengthen further in the future.

It is wrong to expect that Xi will become a figure like Mao only by being elevated to the title of “core leader”. He has been central to the party since he took charge. Both the Communiqué and Xi highlighted the importance of collective leadership system as the core. Xi by the virtue of his personality has managed to become, what his predecessor failed to achieve, the core in the Politburo. This will maintain the system of the political bureau’s leadership under a strong leader without undermining the collective leadership principle.

* Tapan Bharadwaj
Researcher, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies
Email: tapan@ipcs.org

By Peter Certo*

Even in an election year as shot through with conspiracy theories as this one, it would have been hard to imagine a bigger bombshell than Russia intervening to help Donald Trump. But that’s exactly what the CIA believes happened, or so unnamed “officials brief on the matter” told the Washington Post.

While Russia had long been blamed for hacking email accounts linked to the Clinton campaign, its motives had been shrouded in mystery. According to the Post, though, CIA officials recently presented Congress with a “a growing body of intelligence from multiple sources” that “electing Trump was Russia’s goal.”

Now, the CIA hasn’t made any of its evidence public, and the CIA and FBI are reportedly divided on the subject. Though it’s too soon to draw conclusions, the charges warrant a serious public investigation.

Even some Republicans who backed Trump seem to agree. “The Russians are not our friends,” said Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, announcing his support for a congressional probe. It’s “warfare,” added Senator John McCain.

There’s a grim irony to this. The CIA is accusing Russia of interfering in our free and fair elections to install a right-wing candidate it deemed more favorable to its interests. Yet during the Cold War, that’s exactly what the CIA did to the rest of the world.

Most Americans probably don’t know that history. But in much of the world it’s a crucial part of how Washington is viewed even today.

In the post-World War II years, as Moscow and Washington jockeyed for global influence, the two capitals tried to game every foreign election they could get their hands on.

From Europe to Vietnam and Chile to the Philippines, American agents delivered briefcases of cash to hand-picked politicians, launched smear campaigns against their left-leaning rivals, and spread hysterical “fake news” stories like the ones some now accuse Russia of spreading here.

Together, political scientist Dov Levin estimates, Russia and the U.S. interfered in 117 elections this way in the second half the 20th century. Even worse is what happened when the CIA’s chosen candidates lost.

In Iran, when elected leader Mohammad Mossadegh tried to nationalize the country’s BP-held oil reserves, CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt led an operation to oust Mossadegh in favor of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The shah’s secret police tortured dissidents by the thousands, leading directly to the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

In Guatemala, when the democratically elected Jacobo Arbez tried to loosen the U.S.-based United Fruit company’s grip on Guatemalan land, the CIA backed a coup against him. In the decades of civil war that followed, U.S.-backed security forces were accused of carrying out a genocide against indigenous Guatemalans.

In Chile, after voters elected the socialist Salvador Allende, the CIA spearheaded a bloody coup to install the right-wing dictator Augusto Pinochet, who went on to torture and disappear tens of thousands of Chileans. “I don’t see why we need to stand by and watch a country go communist due to the irresponsibility of its own people,” U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger purportedly quipped.

And those are only the most well-known examples.

I don’t raise any of this history to excuse Russia’s alleged meddling in our election — which, if true, is outrageous. Only to suggest that now, maybe, we know how it feels. We should remember that feeling as Trump, who’s spoken fondly of authoritarian rulers from Russia to Egypt to the Philippines and beyond, comes into office.

Meanwhile, much of the world must be relieved to see the CIA take a break from subverting democracy abroad to protect it at home.

*Peter Certo is the editorial manager of the Institute for Policy Studies and the editor of Foreign Policy In Focus.

The future of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS) is in doubt at it is in danger of losing the Sunni-dominated twin cities of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria. Despite these developments, the decentralised threat from ISIS remains present and may expand through the proliferation of terrorist ideology from the returnees.

By Muhammad Haziq Bin Jani and Jasminder Singh*

On October 16, 2016, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared the beginning of the assault on Mosul, some 28 months after the city was lost to ISIS, also known as IS. The near-simultaneous attack on Mosul and Raqqa has placed immense pressure on the ISIS leadership, which is probably fighting for survival. While the military battles are still going on, of great significance will be the implications of what the loss of the two ISIS hubs would mean for the so-called Islamic State and its fighters, including Southeast Asian jihadists.

As ISIS ‘capitals’ in Iraq and Syria, they are of great propaganda value. The likely loss of the two cities could relegate ISIS to a dispersed underground movement a la Al Qaeda, and undermining its claim to being an ever “remaining and expanding” Islamic State, notwithstanding the group’s recent gains in Palmyra.

Implications for IS

However, the eventual loss of the two cities will not signal the death of the group. The ISIS that exists today is a result of morphing that has taken place since 2004 and its likely defeat in the two cities could probably lead to a new group emerging with or without al Baghdadi as Caliph. ISIS began as Jamaat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999, before becoming Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) in 2004, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) in 2006 (after a short-lived coalition of insurgent groups called the Mujahideen Shura Council), the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in 2013 and finally the Islamic State (IS) in 2014.

Unlike Al Qaeda, ISIS has been able to control large territories and run a de facto state for more than two years. Having proclaimed a Caliphate and sustained it for more than two years, ISIS diehards are likely to motivate like-minded groups to continue with the struggle, especially following the humanitarian crisis that is likely to follow with a Shia-led offensive against the two largely Sunni cities.

An immediate danger of the attacks on the two cities is the likelihood of revenge raids on the coalition members carrying out the attacks on ISIS. This has been the case for those who had taken part in the ‘Sunni Uprising’ against Al-Qaeda in Iraq and its later mutations, resulting in the various targeted assassinations and lynching conducted at the homes of the members of the complicit tribes.

Implications for Southeast Asian Jihadists

For Southeast Asia, the eventual fall of the two cities will not mark the end of ISIS or its threat to the region. A decentralised ISIS could be no less dangerous as it could open up multiple fronts in many countries. Unlike Al Qaeda which has no territories or ‘provinces’, ISIS has an epicentre in the Levant and various ‘provinces’ and enclaves worldwide including in Southeast Asia. While holding on to Mosul and Raqqa has been important for ISIS, their loss is unlikely to terminate its struggle to establish a global Islamic Caliphate.

While Iraq and Syria have been the epicentres of ISIS since June 2014, the loss of two cities could result in new centres of gravity. They could pose a greater security threat as the West is less likely to commit forces to counter it especially in Asia and Africa. This would simply mean the export of ISIS struggle from the Levant to the rest of the world, especially the Khorasan and Southeast Asia.

ISIS is also likely to launch the next phase of its offensive against its enemies. It could attack soft and hard targets worldwide, especially countries belonging to the coalition forces. A weakened and decentralised ISIS would result in less predictability, and these countries would need to be ready for such a landscape of insecurity. As ISIS has already succeeded in spawning radical networks in the region, the likely loss of Mosul and Raqqa would raise Southeast Asian insecurity on two fronts.

First, Southeast Asian jihadists returning home from the battlefield, numbering more than 1,000 to date, could pose a serious threat to regional security. This could result in attacks in states such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar and even Singapore. Hence, while the ‘war against ISIS’ has largely focussed on Syria and Iraq, the end of Mosul and Raqqa as ISIS’s strongholds could open new fronts in the region, thereby endangering regional security.

Low-level Insurgency?

Southeast Asian jihadists operating in Mosul and Raqqa, including leaders such as Bahrumsyah, the Emir of Katibah Nusantara and Bahrun Naim from Indonesia and Wanndy from Malaysia, could still order attacks in Southeast Asia. The attacks could source forces either from the ISIS Philippines in Mindanao under the leadership of Hapilon, the Maute group in Butig, or through the returnee foot-soldiers in the region.

Also, the attacks need not be simply by nationals of individual states but could also be through jihadi networks developed in Syria and Iraq that could include radicalised Uighurs, Rohingyas and others who may find expediency in the cause of establishing an Islamic Caliphate.

The threat could be in the form of a low-level insurgency or dangerous terrorist attacks which these operationally-ready returnees – who are well-trained, with battlefield experience, and adept in use of modern weapon systems and military organisation – will be able to carry out. While the returnees’ ‘lone wolf’ or packs of ‘lone wolves’ attacks can be expected, there could also be attacks by organised small groups, as were carried out during the Paris attacks in November 2015, or in the Puchong (Malaysia) grenade blast in June 2016.

Returnees and Ideological Proliferation

The other major impact of the returnees or ‘escapees’ from Mosul and Raqqa is the importing of a more radical and strident form of Sunni Islam to their respective societies. Defeating ISIS is not just a military battle but also a political, economic and ideological struggle. How Southeast Asian societies cope with the returnees will be an equally important challenge, especially in managing the radical ideas these individuals hold. The revival of the ideological concepts, such as a “caliphate” or sectarian enmity should not be dismissed.

A failure to deal with this ideological threat could lead to the returnees’ ability to inspire radicalism at home and breed a new generation of radicals, as had happened following the return of jihadists from the Afghanistan battlefield in the 1980s. This would mean that to deal with dangerous, violence-sanctioning ideas, states would have to develop effective counter and de-radicalisation programmes.

Rather than be euphoric at the conquest of Mosul and Raqqa, in Southeast Asia the appropriate response should be extra vigilance and resilience as the next phase of ISIS threat could wreak havoc to the peace, stability and inter-religious harmony in the region.

*Jasminder Singh is a Senior Analyst and Muhammad Haziq Jani a Research Analyst with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

A cabinetmaker in Nuremberg began producing pencils in the 18th century. Over 200 years later, Faber-Castell is the leading producer of wooden pencils in the world — and is still a family business. Meanwhile, over in Italy, family company Falck went from melting steel scraps in the early 20th century to becoming one of Europe’s leaders in renewable energies, clearly innovating along the way.

These are just a few examples that Professor Josep Tàpies, holder of IESE’s Family-Owned Business Chair, and coauthors, Águeda Gil and Elena San Román, examine in their book, 100 Families That Changed the World: Family Businesses and Industrialization.

They tell the stories behind 100 stories that shaped important chapters in the history of industrialization. Along the way, they also shed light on family businesses from a broad range of sectors that are still going strong today.

Two factors are said to be at the heart of these 100 success stories: dynamism and innovation. The enterprising families simultaneously contributed to industrialization and have been able to adapt to the ongoing changes this process has unleashed.

Dynamic and Innovative

In a move bound to raise a few eyebrows, the book debunks the myth that family businesses are a thing of the past. Not only are they here to stay, the authors insist, they wield important influence in industrialized European countries.

The book also confronts a 40-year-old stereotype that family businesses are averse to risk and to innovation. This image was reinforced by the apparently conservative nature of many family businesses that managed to preserve their business continuously, from generation to generation. Yet a concern with longevity also drove them to develop a long-term vision; “wealth creation within a family business is understood as a legacy that allows them to transform society from one generation to the next,” Tàpies explains.

Despite appearances to the contrary, innovation is deeply woven into family business DNA, the authors argue. It has also been the key to their survival. Businesses don’t survive by standing still; innovation has allowed them to develop and endure for centuries.

Dynamism and innovation — applied to products, manufacturing processes, marketing and organizational structure — have helped these businesses rise above the challenges of industrialization. Growth strategies based on developing new products and markets have also been important to adapt to new times.

Successful family businesses have often been drivers of change, taking on risks as necessary. Food and beverage giant Cargill was a wheat producer in the mid-19th century; today the company operates in 65 countries and four sectors — including agriculture, financial services and industry.

Looking Toward the Future

Family businesses thriving in the 21st century are recognized for their higher degree of professionalization — a professionalization that affects family members and outside hires alike — the authors note. Yet this process of professionalization is occurring without families giving up control and without straying from the core values that were fundamental to the company’s birth, growth and perseverance.

The book combines tips for the future with a historical overview that paints a vivid account of the emergence of industrialization. After all, “deep knowledge of the past is one of the most powerful tools for shaping the future,” the authors write.

In a little-noticed thank you speech in Cincinnati, a stop on his tour of battleground states that secured his electoral victory, President-elect Donald J. Trump recently vowed to break with past United States efforts to “topple regimes and overthrow governments” in the Middle East and North Africa. Trump was likely referring to costly US military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq that toppled the Taliban and Saddam Hussein but failed to produce stable regimes while giving half-hearted US support for democracy and the strengthening of civil society.

“Our goal is stability not chaos… We will partner with any nation that is willing to join us in the effort to defeat ISIS and radical Islamic terrorism… In our dealings with other countries, we will seek shared interest wherever possible and pursue a new era of peace, understanding and goodwill,” Trump said. In effect, the president-elect was reiterating long standing US policy without the lip service past US presidents paid to US values such as democracy, human rights, freedom of speech and freedom of religion.

Traumatic Consequences

It was a policy that backfired with traumatic consequences for the US. President George W. Bush, in a rare recognition of the pitfalls of decades of US policy in the Middle East and North Africa, acknowledged within weeks of the 9/11 attacks that support for autocratic regimes that squashed all expressions of dissent had created the feeding ground for jihadist groups focused on striking at Western targets.

That was no more true then than it is today with significantly stepped-up repression across the Middle East fuelling civil strife, humanitarian catastrophes, and the swelling the ranks of militant and jihadist groups.

If anything, Trump’s seemingly status quo-based, transactional approach to the Middle East and North Africa risks exacerbating the drivers of violence and militancy in the region and threatens to enmesh his administration in a labyrinth of contradictory pressures.

One lesson that emerges from post-World War Two North Africa and the Middle East is that the region will go to any length to ensure that it is a focus of attention. US administrations come to office with lofty goals and ambitions, only to see their agenda driven by acts on the ground in the region. The Trump administration is unlikely to fare any better.

Multiple pitfalls

The pitfalls are multiple, as follows:

• Syria: Backed by Russia and Iran, Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad may be gaining the upper hand in the country’s brutal six-year war, but that is likely to prove a pyrrhic victory. The likelihood of Syria returning territorially and politically to the pre-war status quo ante is nil. Al-Assad’s Alawites like Syrian Kurds will not see their safety and security guaranteed by a Syrian state dominated by remnants of the old-regime.

Al-Assad, with a long list of scores to settle, moreover will be damaged goods for whom the knives will be out once the guns fall silent. And that silence will at best be temporary with foreign forces covertly and overtly continuing to intervene. Not to mention the fallout of an angry, disillusioned generation that has known nothing but brutality, violence and despair and has nothing to lose.

• Russia: A partnership with Russia may initially reshape Syria but will be troubled by radically different views of Iran. While Russia backs Iran, Trump has promised to take a harder line towards the Islamic republic even if he stops short of terminating the nuclear agreement concluded by the Obama administration and the international community.

• Islamic State: Bringing Russia on board in a concerted allied effort to destroy IS will contribute to depriving the jihadist group of its territorial base in Iraq and Syria but will do little to help put the two countries back together as nation states. Nor will it address underlying drivers of jihadist violence fuelled by disenfranchisement, marginalisation, repression, regimes that fail to deliver economic and social goods, and the unilateral re-writing of social contracts.

• Egypt: Blinded by a focus on the fight against jihadism, support for general-turned-president Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi, one of the country’s most repressive rulers, could prove to be an example of the pitfalls of uncritical backing of autocracy as dissatisfaction mounts with failed economic and social policies.

• Israel and Palestine: A policy that is less critical of Israeli policy towards the West Bank and Gaza and that moves away from support for the creation of an independent Palestinian state will complicate relations with the Arab and Muslim world. It will also further undermine the pro-peace faction led by President Mahmoud Abbas and strengthen Islamist groups such as Hamas.

Quintessential Approach

In many ways, Trump represents a quintessential approach towards foreign policy expressed by a US diplomat 40 years ago as he defended autonomy agreed at the time by Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat as the response to Palestinian aspirations. Questioned about the viability of the concept, the diplomat said with no consideration of the consequences and cost of failure: “We Americans are very pragmatic. We keep on trying. If one thing doesn’t work, we try something else.”

To be sure, Trump has yet to articulate a cohesive Middle East policy. The president-elect has nonetheless promised “a new foreign policy that finally learns from the mistakes of the past.”

In many ways, Trump’s statements hold out the promise of harking back to a policy that was first seriously dented by the 9/11 attacks and ultimately punctured by the popular Arab revolts of 2011 and their aftermath.

Trump’s foreign policy and national security line-up raises the spectre of an approach to the Middle East and North Africa that will further stir the region’s demons and set the scene for an administration policy that is driven by events on the ground rather than a cohesive, thought-out strategy.

This article was published by RSIS

By James Crisp

(EurActiv) — A downbeat Donald Tusk last night (15 October) admitted that the European Union was powerless to stop Russian-backed bloodshed in the Syrian city of Aleppo.

The European Council President said, “We are not as effective as we would like to be but we are not indifferent to the suffering of people in Syria.”

“We are not effective enough. I know who is effective enough…at bombing,” he added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose support for Syrian President Bashir Assad was pivotal in the taking of Aleppo.

Tusk confessed that a major obstacle to hitting Russia with economic sanctions was the uncertainty caused by the election of US President Donald Trump.

“We have to wait for the formal declarations of the new president,” he said.

EU leaders did not discuss the possibility of economic sanctions for its part in the atrocities committed in Aleppo.

Even though a French-German effort to get sanctions on Russia failed two months ago, at the October summit, Tusk claimed heads of state and government had hardened their stance on Russia.

“Our colleagues, the leaders today were more radical, tougher than they were three months ago, but we didn’t discuss sanctions,” he said.

EU sanctions require unanimous support from all member states. Spain and Italy were among the countries who opposed the measures in October.

Separate sanctions against Russia for the annexation of Crimea were extended by six months. Donald Trump becomes US President on 20 January 2017. The possibility of renewing them for a year was mooted, but discarded.

Tusk said the Crimea sanctions were simpler to achieve because they were based around the Minsk Agreement brokered by France, Germany and Belarus.

Flanked by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, Tusk called for the opening of United Nations supervised humanitarian corridors for aid and the evacuation of people to and from Aleppo.

The UN Security Council will meet behind closed doors in New York on Friday to discuss the crisis in Aleppo after civilians began evacuating and Syrian forces moved to assert full control over the city.

“We have achieved some results, including a real chance to establish safe corridors,” Tusk said before adding in another swipe at Putin, “at least with Iran… This is what we can offer.”

“It is impossible to stop this conflict by force. The EU has no intention and no capacity to use this kind of methods,” the former Polish prime minister told reporters at the end of the summit of EU leaders.

Please stop blaming the EU

“Please stop blaming the EU, he said resignedly, “because we are not the reason we have seen this tragedy today.”

Tusk, who had invited the mayor of Eastern Aleppo to address leaders, said that Europe was the biggest and first provider of humanitarian support to the Syrian population.

“The voice of the people of Aleppo was heard, at least symbolically,” Tusk said.

But there were few differences between the European Council conclusions of October and last night. Both condemn Russia and both reserve the right to consider all options in responding to the atrocities in Syria.

They differ on the setting out of four emergency measures to evacuate inhabitants of eastern Aleppo, give immediate aid and protection to them and protect hospitals, as well as a demand for the return of international humanitarian law.

“The European Council strongly condemns the continued assault on Aleppo by the Syrian regime and its allies, notably Russia and Iran, including the deliberate targeting of civilians and hospitals,” the conclusions agreed by EU leaders read last night.

Angela Merkel said, “The regime using brutal violence a with the help of Russia has gained the upper hand. I don’t believe the solution can be a purely military one”.

She also said the leaders did not exclude imposing sanctions against Russia in the future for its actions in Syria.

French President Francois Hollande accused Russia of “making commitments that it is not keeping” urged Moscow and Tehran to “take the responsibility for this extremely serious situation.”

Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was asked about Spain’s reluctance to adopt new sanctions against Russia over Syria.

“Today’s statement is forceful,” he said, “We are in favour of the consensus.”

Mayor of Eastern Aleppo Brita Hagi Hassan said at of the summit, “The 50,000 citizens of eastern Aleppo are only waiting for their deaths after the failure of the international community.”

“The mayor said we can’t bring back those who have lost but we can save those that remain and that is what we must now do,” said UK Prime Minister Theresa May, who pledged Britain would offer £20 million (€23.85 million) worth of practical support for the most vulnerable.

In accordance with the spirit of solidarity driving all components of the Moroccan nation, King Mohammed VI gave his orders to immediately dispatch a significant humanitarian aid to Sub-Saharan immigrants who were deported massively by Algerian authorities towards the north of Niger. An operation that was qualified by international media as “the biggest hunt for the black man since independence”.

The aid will be provided by the Mohammed V Foundation for Solidarity, the Moroccan Agency for International Cooperation (AMCI) and the Interior Ministry. The plane transported the first batch of aid including family tents, blankets, basic foodstuff and other critical supplies.

According to the statement, the aid covers the basic needs of the most vulnerable people who are affected by that massive expulsion. It also aims to help the government of Niger to cope with the influx of the deported citizens. An exceptional situation that could have dramatic implications. Morocco will provide a total of 116 tons of aid.

Through this humanitarian initiative, Morocco intends to contribute to easing the sufferings of hundreds of Sub-Saharans who were expelled arbitrarily from Algeria. An action that was denounced by Human Rights Watch and other international human rights organizations. The King ordered that this humanitarian initiative be implemented imminently and in coordination with authorities of Niger.

This humanitarian aid will provide basic needs to the expelled Sub-Saharan immigrants and support their steadfastness and alleviate their suffering in light of the difficult conditions facing them.

The Moroccan air shipments of urgently-needed emergency humanitarian aid will arrive soon to Niger to help alleviate the critical conditions of those deported immigrants who are facing severe food shortages, a situation likely to worsen besides hunger and malnutrition pose additional challenges to the health and well-being of vulnerable children and adults. The Moroccan emergency humanitarian aid will help reduce human suffering and ease that hardship in that crowded camp in north of Niger.

Once again, Morocco has shown a continuous commitment to respond to the innocent victims all over he world not only by issuing communiques denouncing aggressions against civilians but by deploying humanitarian aid in an effort to alleviate their suffering and setting up a humanitarian model in an attempt to encourage and to invite other countries to do the same.

Russia’s indefensible actions against the civilian population of Aleppo, actions that rise to the level of crimes against humanity, are attracting so much attention that many have ignored another development that may ultimately have an even greater impact on Vladimir Putin’s behavior.

And that is this: The Kremlin is having trouble filling the ranks of its forces on the ground in Syria and has been forced to take a number of steps that both reflect its desperation and may lay the groundwork for future aggression if they are successful or make it far more difficult if they are not.

For a country with a military as large and powerful as Putin routinely assures his own people and the world, the dispatch of a few thousand ground troops to another country whose government welcomes them should not be problem. But three new developments show that it has become one.

First, there have been reports about Moscow sending 500 Chechen soldiers from units controlled up to now by Ramzan Kadyrov personally to Syria to help the Asad dictatorship, reports that have attracted particular attention because at least 12 of their number have refused to go (republic.ru/posts/77378 and kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/294206/).

Few Russian senior officers trust the Chechens; and consequently, it is almost certain that they had these people imposed on them by the Kremlin both because of a desire of the central political leadership to ensure that any deaths on the ground could be more easily hidden and because there was no one else readily available.

That some of the Chechen soldiers are resisting, of course, will only reinforce the attitudes of the Russian office corps and of many Russians more generally about the reliability of the Chechens and mean that officers are likely to dig in in opposition to the use of the Chechens and to get support from Russians for doing so.

Second, there are reports about “secret Russian mercenaries” under commanders who earlier fought in Ukraine, a group that may be prepared to do the kind of things Putin and Asad prefer but that do nothing to promote unit cohesion in the military or boost its standing with the Russian population (spektr.press/gruppa-vagnera-istoriya-tajnyh-rossijskih-naemnikov-v-sirii/).

And third, today, the Duma passed a measure that will allow the Russian military to hire people for short-term contracts to fight abroad. In the past, such people had to serve two or more years; now, they will only have to commit to six to 12 months (profile.ru/obsch/item/113721-litsenziya-na-vojnu).

The military is likely to seek to employ former soldiers who have recent training of the kind needed, something that could save Moscow money and also allow for a rapid build up or alternatively drawn down in forces but again something that reflects not only budgetary stringencies but also broader personnel ones as well.

These three developments come on top of a longstanding trend: the number of 18-year-olds in the Russian Federation, the prime draft age, is declining and the share of ethnic Russians within them is declining as well. That makes it hard to fill all the slots in the Russian army with the people commanders would most like to have.

And that difficulty is compounded by the need the Russian economy has in at least some sectors for additional workers and by the still negative attitudes many Russians have to military service because of widespread reports of dedovshchina and other harsh aspects in the life of uniformed personnel.

One of Donald Trump’s campaign promises was to make Health Savings Accounts more widely used. The purpose of HSAs is to give patients greater control over health spending and to reduce the share of spending controlled by insurers. Unfortunately, the 2003 law that established HSAs requires they be linked with a highly regulated type of health insurance policy.

These policies, like all health insurance today, give insurers power to dictate prices instead of allowing prices to be formed through interactions between patients and providers (that is, a normal market process). Consequently, these health insurance policies are not as popular as truly consumer-driven plans should be.

Nevertheless, HSAs (which are bank accounts, not health insurance policies) are growing like gangbusters, according to new research from the Employee Benefits Research Institute (EBRI). As I wrote previously, EBRI is a rock-solid member of the health-benefits establishment.

If Trump wants to expand the use of HSAs, EBRI’s evidence suggests he is pushing on an open door. EBRI indicates that at the end of 2015 there were 20 million HSAs, with assets totaling about $30 billion. Over four in five HSAs were opened since the beginning of 2011. Indeed, over half of HSAs were opened in just 2014 and 2015.

Further, HSAs become quite valuable over time. The average balance in an HSA opened in 2004 or earlier (which includes rollovers from an earlier, much more limited type of account) was $33,888. This is because most accountholders are able to save money in them for future health spending (even though accountholders in the 2004 or earlier cohort spent an average of $2,595 from their HSA in 2015).

This is why it pays to open an HSA as soon as possible. Young people understand this: 29 percent of accountholders are under the age of 35.

Expanding patients’ freedom to use HSAs to control health spending directly should be a high priority for the Trump administration.

This article was published at The Beacon.

A new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) looks at Brazil’s unusually high interest rates. Brazil has the fourth-highest interest burden in the world (183 countries), even though ― unlike countries plagued by civil conflict and other risk factors ― Brazil faces little risk of default, and with more than $366 billion in international reserves, is not likely to experience balance of payments crises that could lead to runaway inflation.

“Brazil’s exorbitant interest rates are the result of decisions of the Central Bank, supported by a concentrated, powerful banking sector that has considerable political and market power,” CEPR economist and Co-Director Mark Weisbrot, who coauthored the paper, said. More than 44 percent of Brazilian government bonds are tied to the Selic rate, the policy rate set by Brazil’s central bank. This rate has been one of the highest such policy rates in the world for decades.

Brazil’s largest banks now control more than 70 percent of the commercial banking system’s total assets. The safe, guaranteed return from government bonds ― not only the high Selic rate, but other bonds that offer protection against inflation or changes in the exchange rate ― are an enormous source of profitability for Brazil’s financial sector. For the years 2003–2015, the profits of the four biggest banks rose by 460 percent ― from 5 billion reais to more than 28 billion reais.

The paper notes:

In the immediate present, one of the most damaging aspects of Brazil’s high interest rates is the weight of interest payments in the national budget, in the context of the highly dysfunctional national debate over Brazil’s central government budget deficit. The increase in the interest burden of the debt since 2012 accounts for about half of the increase in the central government budget deficit.…

Alternatively, lower interest rates could help create the fiscal space for the significant economic stimulus Brazil needs to help spur an economic recovery. Instead, the government has gone in the opposite direction, achieving the passage of a constitutional amendment to hold real (inflation-adjusted) federal spending constant for the next 20 years.

The paper notes that Brazil had 23 years (1980–2003) with very little growth of income per person, just one-fifth of 1 percent per year on average, and warns: “Brazil’s unique interest rate policies are a major part of the policy mistakes that, if not subject to serious and long-term change, could condemn the country to another very long period of profound economic failure.”

By Motsoko Pheko*

Our ancestors were agriculturists and pastoral farmers. If they had followed the European calendar system whose year begins in January, they would not have survived and we might not be here today. But they were very wise. They knew how nature works. They knew what time rain comes.

They knew what time some parts of this country experience frost which destroys harvest that is not ready at the right time. Their year calendar began in August (Phato) not in January (Pherekhong). This year had four seasons, namely Selemo –Spring, Hlabula – Summer – Hoetla – Autumn, and Winter – Mariha.

Our ancestors dug gold, copper and other minerals. They were iron experts long before Europe. They had never gone to school to study geology, but even their ordinary herdsboys and shepherds could identify an iron stone (morallana). These ancestors had a furnace technology through which they melted this iron stone (morallana) and shaped it into tools of agriculture, hoes, axes, spears etc. They knew also how to preserve food for a long time and for bad times of harvest. They dried fruits (mangangajane), corn, vegetables by exposing them to the sun. They preserved meat in the same way and made dihwapa. Biltong is a dihwapa product that was copied from Africans. The Basotho had also disiu to preserve their harvest.

These people knew many herbs which had medicinal value. They healed many sicknesses. Some also had the scientific knowledge of embalming important people when they died especially members of the royal families so that their bodies did not decay.

Africans are very rich epistemologically. We are part of them. Some were clairvoyants dealing with matters of spirituality. These are matters that are supernatural. This was at a time when colonialists ridiculed them as “superstitious.” Today, I see that many of them speak about “supernatural” as if it is a new thing. They no longer refer to spiritual matters as “superstition.”

As a people, we must preserve our culture, especially our languages. These languages define who we are. Our humanness – Botho/Ubuntu – is our philosophical outlook and moral guide. It is our Africentric view of the world as against the Eurocentric view of the world. A people without knowledge of their own language are like a person who travels on a borrowed bicycle. Language is a fundamental heritage of a people. We received this precious gift from our forefathers and grandmothers. We have to pass it on untainted to coming generations.

It is appreciated that English the colonial language has become part of our life. It is important for commercial and international communication. It is also important for our heterogeneous nation. Many Nguni-speaking Africans cannot speak Sepedi, Sesotho and Setswana. Likewise many Sotho-speaking people cannot speak Xhosa, Zulu, Ndebele and Swati. It becomes even more difficult for our Venda and Tsonga brothers and sisters. But it is national suicide for us Africans to neglect and under-develop our African languages.

A people who have no language of their own will be devoured. African languages such as Setswana, Sepedi and Sesotho (sa Mohoeshoe) have a lot of philosophy (Bohlale) as reflected in their proverbs (maele).They also have enigmas (lilotho). They have concepts (kutlwisiso or menahano) which are unique and not found in the English language.

1. Here are a few Sesotho proverbs and their approximate meaning in English to illustrate this point:

i). Phuthi e tsoha ka meso e anyese (Punctuality is good practice).

ii). Pela e ne e hloke mohatla ka ho romeletsa (Don’t depend on others to do things for you.

iii). Mphemphe e ea lapisa. Motho o khonoa ka tsa ntlo ea hae. (Dependence is the mother of hunger and humiliation)

iv). Ha lefete khomo le je motho. (Everything must be done to save life)

v). U se ke oa khahloa ke none e feta e hlotsa (Do not get carried away by foreign things)

vi). Marabe o jeoa ke bana. (Parents must sacrifice everything for their children)

vii). Poho e ea ipeha (You are the architect of your destiny)

2. Lilotho Ka Puo Ea Sesotho – enigmas in Sesotho Language. They are meant to train young people to observe and to think.

Here are a few examples:

i). Ke mang monna ya jarang libetsa tsa hae bosiu le mots’eare? (Who is the warrior who carries his weapons day and night?) (noko – porcupine)

ii). Ke eng ntho e mathang Bosiu le mots’eare? (What runs day and night?) ( Noka, River)

iii). Ke mang mohale ya jang lifate? (Who is the warrior who eats trees?) (axe, selepe)

iv). Ke eng ntho e se nang mapheo, empa e nang le lebelo le thijoang ke noka le mangope feela? (What thing is it that has no wings, but runs so fast that only a river or ditch can stop it?) (hlaha –grass fire).

v). Ke mang moholo ea lutseng fats’e bannyane ba  hobela? (Who is the elder sitting down while youngsters dance) (Tree) makala a  sefate branches of a tree)

vi). Ke bo mang Bahlankana ba  basoeu ba  lekanang ba lulang ka  lehaheng? (who are the young men or women who are white and equal in height and live in the cave?) (meno , teeth)

3. Bastardisation of African languages                                   

About 10 years ago I was annoyed by an English man. He had written that most Africans spoke English to the extent that within the next twenty years there would be hardly any Africans who can speak their languages correctly. And that some Europeans would come to teach African languages in schools and universities here because there will be no Africans to teach these languages.

But today I believe he was not very wrong. Many educated Africans are assassinators of African languages. They can hardly speak an African language without mixing it with English. Here are some examples:

Re tshwanela hore re “participate” linthong tsena. Re ya “organiser.” “Re na le “support” e ngata. Ha ke “exaggerate.”  Botsa “anyone.” Ke sa nka “walk.” Ke revisela “di-examination.” Ke batla ho pasa ka “distinction.” Ke “determine” ho ya “univesiting next year.”

This is not the Sesotho that can be described even as Sesotho C. This is   disgraceful “Fanakalo” mess. It manifests a huge dangerous colonial mentality that is prevailing in the country among our people.

Even radio and television announcers and the people they interview are part of this guillotining of African languages. I wonder how elderly people even youngsters understand this assassinated Sepedi, Setswana and Sesotho, particularly in the rural areas, where there is still a semblance of speaking these African languages with respect and eloquence.
4. African languages help decimate false “Empty Land” theory

By custom of Setswana, Sepedi and Sesotho we reared cattle. The cattle had to have the owner’s mark or brand. A cow that has not got your mark is not yours. You cannot claim it in a court of law against the thief or thieves who have stolen it from you. It will be difficult to win a court case against a thief who has already got his mark on it. The thief will win the court case against you.

Equally when you buy a book and you do not write your name on it, you will have difficulty proving in court that the book is yours. But with your name in the book you win hands down.

It is important to know and use the names of places of this country Azania (South Africa) in our African languages. African names in African languages help us to decimate the colonial false theory of “Empty Land” when the colonialists arrived here and took the land from Africans through the barrel of the gun.

Here are examples of Colonial names and indigenous African names:

Pietersburg: Polokwane

Pretoria: Tshwane

Philipolis: Podingtserolo

Zastron: Matlakeng

Pietspruit: Noka Ya Tlou

Klersdorp: Matlakeng

Bloemhof : Teledung

Smithfield : Mofulatshepe

Vryburg: Huhudi

Zeerust :Bohurutse

Caledon  : Mohokare

Warden :Moeding

Aliwal North :Mmaletswai

Bothaville : Khotsong

To know and use African languages for the names of our country including its cities is very important for decolonisation of African minds. There are no towns in Europe bearing African names. Those people are very careful. They know that anything that does not bear your name is difficult to claim. In Europe there are not even streets called after our African Kings or Leaders of the African Liberation struggle against colonialism.

But in this part of Africa our country is full of the marks or brands of Britain and Holland. Some of these names we cannot even pronounce properly. Above all the name of our country bears its colonial name. Our mark Azania has been ignored. No wonder the land is not equitably distributed according population numbers and Africans are sinking deeper and deeper in poverty and cannot afford education for their children – the future of this country.

5. Incapacity to defend misconceptions about Africans      

Negligence of African languages invites ignorance and misconceptions about African cultural concepts. It encourages Europeans to denigrate our languages with impunity. Some professors in their very high institutions of learning call bohali or lobola “bride price” or “bride wealth.” Why can’t they admit that they cannot translate this African cultural concept into their languages? Our daughters and sisters are not goats or cattle. They have never been for sale.

Eurocentricity finds nothing wrong with calling African traditional doctors or herbalists “witchdoctors.” Can a person be a witch and a doctor at the same time?  This is senseless. And why did they call our kings “chiefs” and “chieftainesses”?  Have you ever heard of Chief George or Chieftainess Elizabeth II? By neglecting our African languages we give license to strangers to degrade our cultures by using derogatory terminology. Re kenya metsi ka tlung! They used to call our villages “kraals” but at the same time call where we keep our cattle (masaka) “cattle kraal.”

6. Ignorant interpreters may mislead the judge

We must respect and love our African languages. These languages are part of us. They are our valuable national heritage. Without them we cannot be real people. Many languages have died in the world. Bad Setswana, Sepedi and Sesotho are as good as dead. They create problems when not known properly. Take for instance, court proceedings. The interpreter must know the language well so that the judge can hear the evidence correctly.

For instance, if the accused says, “he provoked me,”  And the prosecutor says, “What was the provocation?”  And the accused says he said, “Mmao.” And the interpreter says, “he said, “your mother.”  “Your mother” in English is very innocent. But this is not what Mmao means in Sesotho. The accused is certain to be acquitted because the judge or magistrate sees nothing wrong with the word “Mmao” – “Your mother.”

In Sesotho “Mmao” is referring to private parts of your mother, depending on the tone and circumstances in which it was used. One would be a big coward if he did not immediately punish the user of such language on a mother. But I think if the Sesotho meaning and context were understood by the judge, he/she would pass the verdict of guilty for the injured party.

Ignorant interpreters of African languages contribute to imprisonment of innocent people. African languages must be taken seriously. In interpretation you do not translate words, you interpret the concept. It is the same thing in Xhosa when you say “Unyoko!” That is a deep wound of insult.

7. Development of African languages is imperative

Our African languages are very rich. But they are slow in having correct words that technology, science and other fields of knowledge are daily brewing. I may sound funny, but words such as Speaker of Parliament, computer, television, chemistry, physics, economics, economy, cell phone, ballistic missiles, hansard, biology, archaeology,  anthropology, theology, history are not Sesotho, Sepedi or Setswana. Proper words must be found for new things.

Developing African languages would put us in a situation where we can acquire some of our education in the medium of our language. Why must we know only English in order to acquire knowledge? Can we not learn carpentry, plumbing, electricity, agriculture or anything in African languages? Is chemistry, engineering, commerce, astronomy inferior when not learned in English?  Our people were astronomers, long time ago in their languages.

Chinese are taught in Chinese. They are today a nuclear power and very advanced nation that is emerging as a world super power. Einstein, a German scientist, invented the bomb. Germans have produced one of the best cars, Mercedes Benz. They do not speak any English. Those who want to learn English learn it as a subject.

They do not use it as a medium of instruction to acquire knowledge. Because we have not developed our African languages we have to learn English first before we acquire knowledge. Does chemistry, mathematics or plumbing become different when taught in African languages? No.

On 29 April 2016, non-English speaking China announced that it will launch its spaceship to Mars in 2020. This is three years from now. This is not time to gamble with African languages through which we could accumulate knowledge faster and easier. Knowledge is power. People who have no knowledge will remain behind.

8. African languages would increase knowledge

North Korea is scaring many big nations today which want to monopolise nuclear weapons.  They have acquired this knowledge in their Korean language. It is the same thing with the Russians. In Africa Amharic and Swahili languages have enabled their people to learn English as a subject but to learn many things through their indigenous or national languages. There is much for African languages to learn from Swahili language.

Their education system has not in any way become inferior to that of the rest of the world. African languages must be developed. Their importance also lies in the fact that they enable Africans to hold the Africentric view of the world instead of being fooled by the Eurocentric view of the world that has no Botho/Ubuntu and is the cause of many global problems today including wars.

English in its origin is a “Fanakalo” language. When stripped of Greek, Latin and KEMETIC, English stands completely naked. Let me give examples of English words that came from Kemetic, an ancient African language of Black Pharaohs long before it was invaded by Greeks, Romans and others. Here are English words from Kemetic language:

Ruit (to engrave): Write

Khenna (boat) : Canoe

Khekh (repulse) : Kick

Koui : Cow

Ra  (sun): Ray (sunlight)

(Introduction To African Civilisations John G. Jackson page 150, See also The Customs Of Mankind by Lillian Eichler and Book Of The Beginnings, Gerald Massey)

Ra is interesting because it is also found in Setswana language and in Sesotho Ramaseli (The Father of Light as one of the names for God.)

 9. Superiorityof Sesotho over English

For the word “wash” in the Sesotho language has several words. They describe the word with precision. For example, ho hlapa (washing hands), ho iphotla (washing the face), ho tola ( washing the whole body), ho ikutletsa (washing the feet using a stone), ho hlatswa (washing clothes).

The concept of God is also clearer in African languages. In English He is called God. The meaning is not clear. In Kemet (ancient Egypt) Ra was the name for God. The Venda people call God Raluvhimba. This has the concept of the Greatest One. The old name for God in Zulu is Mvelingqangi – the One Who Came Into Existence On His Own. This is close to the name Ngai for God in Gikuyu language in Kenya. It means one who has no father or mother –“the Creator and Giver of all things.” Sepedi, Setswana and Sesotho and Serotse/Lozi in Zambia call God Modimo – Moholimo – the one who inhabits and reigns in the heavens. The Swahili name for God in Tanzania is Mungu. It means One Who Does Not Discriminate, A Giver. They pray “Mungu abariki Afrika” – God bless Afrika.

10. Problems of English are not African problems

African languages must not concern themselves with the problems of the English language. In European countries that speak English some Christians have a problem with the pronouns “he” and “she” and with the noun “man.” The Sesotho languages say God made man in His image. Some English speaking people say this is “male chauvinism.” The Sesotho Bible uses the word motho – human being – hence ntate o fihlile. Mme o fihlile. Sesotho does not use different pronouns for father and mother.

The English problem of “Chairman”

When it comes to chairman the English speaking people have a problem. Sesotho and Nguni languages have no problem. They are comfortable with modulasetulo and Mgcinisihlalo (chairman). In African languages here it does not show whether the person in the chair is a man or a woman.

The English language has another problem with the pronoun “he,” with reference to God. Sesotho languages have no such problem.

The pronoun that these languages use do not indicate whether God is a man or a woman. African languages are in accord with African Traditional Religion that perceives God as Supreme Spirit.

11.  World’slanguages came from Africa

There is an interesting discovery of where language originated. On 15 April 2011, Science Journal published a study that puzzled many English-speaking people in Britain, Canada, America, Australia and New Zealand. This was a study done by Dr. Kuentin D. Atkinson of Auckland University in New Zealand. This scientific study has found that every language on earth has come from a single pre-historic African mother-tongue.

The 504 languages Dr. Atkinson studied and analysed have been traced to a Stone Age dialect from Africa. Dr. Atkinson has found that “The further away from Africa a language spoken is, the fewer the sounds it has. English has 46 sounds. The San people in South Africa [Azania] use a staggering 200 sounds.” (Science Journal April 2011)

Dr. Atkinson’s study has shown that language evolved at least one hundred thousand years ago. His findings were that every language from English to Mandarin [of the Chinese] evolved from a pre-historic mother tongue spoken in Africa thousands of years ago. He pointed out that “…the number of distinct sounds, in languages tends to increase the closer it is to the Sub-Saharan Africa.”

Prof. Robin Dunbar, an anthropologist at Oxford University, has confirmed that “Languages grew from a seed in Africa.” (New York Times 14 April 2011)

For his part Prof.  Mark Pagel of Reading University in England has confirmed that this same effect can be seen also in D.N.A. Africans have much greater genetic diversity than Europeans.

12.  Sotho and Nguni languages admired

The worst enemies of Africans in South Africa have admitted the musical charm of Sesotho and Nguni languages. H.R. Abercrombie in his book Africa’s Peril (page 45) has observed, “Now we come to an entirely different type of individual classed collectively as Bantu, of many tribes, but probably of common origin. Their language is full of musical charm and lends itself to flights of oratory. It is expressive and of perfect construction. The two great branches of this are known as Zulus or Matebele and Basuto.”

How can we throw away our golden languages that have so much beauty and history of being the mother of European languages? The superiority of African poetry is such that its concepts cannot be easily translated into English. This is where a proverb of our languages warns us:

“U SE KE OA KHAHLOA KE NONE E FETA E HLOTSA”   “UNGALAHLI MBO YAKHO NGOPHOYIYANA” [DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY TOO MUCH BY FOREIGN THINGS.]

*DR MOTSOKO PHEKO delivered this address at the Department of Languages University of South Africa, 12 October 2016.