By P. Stobdan

In response to an invitation by Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry, I had visited Tashkent as an observer to monitor the presidential election held on 4 December 2016.

To play the role of an international observer, without being repetitive and arriving at a stereotypical conclusion, is not an easy task. Yet the task was challenging and a meaningful learning experience.

Election Process

The snap presidential election was held on 4 December 2016 at 9939 polling stations in 14 electoral districts (between 0600 to 1800 hours). The Central Election Commission of Uzbekistan (CEC) said that the elections were being conducted in full compliance with the national electoral legislation and the democratic principles of transparency, openness and fairness.

The four candidates contesting the elections were: Khatamjon Ketmanov of the People’s Democratic Party, Sarvar Otamuratov of the Milliy Tiklanish (National Revival) Democratic Party, Shavkat Miromonovich Mirziyoyev of the Liberal Democratic Party, and Nariman Umarov of the Adolat (Justice) Party.

Around 600 observers and media representatives from the OSCE/ODIHR, CIS, SCO, OIC, Association of World Election Bodies, and from 50 countries were accredited to observe and report on the elections.

I had the chance to visit three polling stations in Bukhara and eight in Samarkand to observe the preparation for elections and ballot casting. By all accounts, the conduct of the elections was flawless. They were well organized from the technical angle and held in a festive atmosphere. There was no doubting that the electoral process was open and transparent. The electoral roll was displayed at each polling station and voters cast their ballots in the box kept in front of observers.

Special arrangements were made to get the votes of seriously ill voters from their residences. Another feature this time (as told) was the provision for convicted persons to cast their votes. The voter’s ID card was checked but no ink mark was applied to the index fingers of voters as happens in India. The voter turnout was high at all polling stations.

Observers were allowed to see all stages of the electoral process. One could not fully judge the level of transparency but observers of major organizations had received copies of the protocols and vote counts. The CEC held briefing sessions/video conferencing with all 14 district electoral commissions that were open to observers and the media. Every foreign observer had to sign a register kept at the polling stations s/he visited as well as record opinions, observations and suggestions.

One of the more positive facts of the elections was the peaceful conduct of the polling. No incidents of violence or complaints were filed with the CEC.

According to the CEC, the election was competitive; candidates were given reasonable and equal time and space in the mass media to air their party programmes. Every candidate was provided with space for 642 billboard signs displayed across the country and equal access to 36 electronic screens to relay campaign messages. Besides, the CEC had carried out a comprehensive information campaign encouraging the public to participate in the poll.

Results

The preliminary results were announced on 5 December 2016. The CEC said that 17.9 million out of 20 million voters cast their ballots.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev of the People’s Democratic Party was declared the winner with 88.6 per cent of the vote. The other three contenders received between two and four per cent of the total ballots cast. Two of these three contenders (Ketmonov and Umarov) had earlier stood against former President Karimov in the 2015 election.

In the past, Western observers never considered Uzbek elections as free and fair. Every election was considered a sham – organized only to legitimize the incumbent who always received more than 90 per cent of the vote. However, this time around, the OSCE/ODIHR Mission and some independent media that widely monitored the election process thought that there was a marked improvement in terms of campaign visibility and outreach even though the political parties followed a uniform campaign strategy and refrained from criticizing either the policies of the government or each other.

In his interim report, though Peter Theiler, the head of the OSCE, did not cast doubt on the elections, he did underscore “the need for comprehensive reforms” and administrative accountability to strengthen Uzbekistan’s democratic governance. In contrast, the monitoring missions from the CIS and SCO termed the election as open and democratic. The Russian Electoral Commission also lauded the poll. Large contingents of observers were seen from China, Russia and other former Soviet States. Overall, international observers praised the CEC for the professional conduct of the elections.

Observations

While it was rather difficult to delve into the depth of the country’s internal dynamics, the overall impression one got was that the democratic process is making marked progress, albeit as per Uzbekistan’s own political ethos and traditions. However, it was widely understood that Shavkat Miromonovich Mirziyoyev was the odds-on favourite. He had long been touted as a potential successor to Karimov, along with the Intelligence Chief Rustam Azimov and Karimov’s eldest daughter Gulnara Karimova.

Mirziyoyev was at the helm of affairs as Prime Minister for 13 years and had the widest experience of governance. Therefore, he was the most qualified candidate to be the country’s new leader. During his three-month tenure as interim President, Mirziyoyev is said to have undertaken some reformist steps that may have boosted his popularity at home and abroad. Among other things, he opened to traffic the street passing by former President Islam Karimov’s official residence in the centre of Tashkent. He has set up an online portal for citizens to lodge direct complaints to the government. Importantly, he has liberalized the country’s most unpopular policy of controlling the currency market. To ease social discontent, Mirziyoyev had promised to revive the economy, focus on housing, attract foreign investment, simplify business registration and fight corruption. He has promised to double the country’s economy by 2020. An important sign of his reform measures included the release of 72-year-old Samandar Kukanov, an opponent whom Karimov had imprisoned 23 years ago.

On the diplomatic front, Mirziyoyev reversed Karimov’s unpopular policy and reached out to the neighbouring states to reduce inter-state tensions. Regular flights between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are set to resume from January 2017 after a gap of 24 years. It seems that border demarcations with Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are on the cards. Mirziyoyev had also ordered that the country’s border be kept open during the campaign period, and allowed the OSCE to send a full-scale mission to observe the campaigning.

Some critics believe that such populist measures were simply aimed at gaining legitimacy at home and abroad. And Mirziyoyev did instantly receive support from Moscow as well as from the leaders of neighbouring Central Asian states. Some independent experts suspect that these measures would be short-lived because there will always be a ‘security’ pretext to tighten control – a method that Islam Karimov applied for nearly three decades to stay in power. In fact, analysts say that Mirziyoyev will prove even more brutal and repressive than Karimov against potential political rivals.

Conclusion

One intrinsic aspect of the political system in Uzbekistan is that it revolves around the intricate interplay of major clan-regional networks that effectively influenced the country’s economic and commercial interests. Given that the strength of Uzbekistan’s economy stems largely from domestic production capacities, social and economic factors play a key role in shaping the country’s political scenario. Here again, like in the case of Islam Karimov, Mirziyoyev comes from the same powerful Samarkand-Jizzakh clan. The other major clan/regional groupings that influence politics are Tashkent, Ferghana, and Kashkadaria. Although the system appears opaque, it remains the key to anchoring the state and society.

The clan-regional solidarity is said to be powerful enough to outwit any other form of social mobilization including throughreligious solidarity – one reason why the country is insulated from protest movements despite the strong presence of Islamists in the region. In fact, it was widely expected that Karimov’s death would trigger a wave of internal instability that could be exploited by Islamists such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Hizb-ut-Tehrir (HuT) and Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) and others that are well entrenched in Uzbek society and were using violence to create an Islamic caliphate for decades. In fact, the Ferghana Valley has been the breeding ground for radical Islam as many battle-hardened Uzbek fighters had joined the ranks of the Taliban, Al-Qaida and Islamic State (IS). Hundreds of Uzbeks are said to be fighting along the Al Nusrah Front and IS. The IMU’s chief based in Waziristan had declared his allegiance to IS in 2014.

But the transition of power has been smooth without any sign of internal feud. This comes after the death of former Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov which also resulted in a smooth leadership transition. It seems also clear that despite the opacity of Central Asian politics, the course of political change in the region is likely to be smooth which is also essential for peace and stability within and outside Central Asia.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India. Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://idsa.in/idsacomments/leadership%20change%20in%20Uzbekistan_pstobdan_26122016

Actress Carrie Fisher has died after a heart attack on board a flight from London to Los Angeles. Best known for playing Princess Leia in the Star Wars movies, Fisher was 60.

“It is with a very deep sadness that Billie Lourd confirms that her beloved mother Carrie Fisher passed away at 8:55 this morning,” Simon Halls, spokesman for Fisher’s daughter said on Tuesday in a statement reported by People magazine.

Fisher was flying from London to Los Angeles on Friday when she suffered a heart attack. She was evacuated from the flight and rushed to a nearby hospital, where she was reported stable in the Intensive Care Unit.

Fisher, the daughter of actress Debbie Reynolds and singer Eddie Fisher, shot to fame in 1977 in the role of Princess Leia Organa in George Lucas’s Star Wars (later renamed ‘A New Hope’).

Behind the screen, she became known as one of the best script doctors in Hollywood. Her 1987 fictionalized autobiography ‘Postcards from the Edge’ became a bestseller, and her 2006 one-woman play ‘Wishful Drinking’ was adapted into a book in 2008.

Fisher’s memoir, titled ‘The Princess Diarist’, was published in November 2016. In it, she revealed that she had a three-month “intense” affair with Harrison Ford, her Star Wars co-star and love interest.

Most recently, Fisher reprised the role of Leia in ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ and had finished filming her scenes for the yet-unnamed ‘Star Wars Episode VIII’ in the UK.

Fisher struggled with substance abuse for much of her life, beginning with marijuana as a teenager.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said “it’s very clear” that the US-led coalition is supporting terrorist groups in Syria, Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS/ISIL) among them.

“They give support to terrorist groups including Daesh (Arabic for ISIS),” Erdogan said.

Saying that the US have accused Turkey of supporting IS, speaking at a press conference on Tuesday the Turkish leader blamed the US-led coalition for assisting terrorists themselves.

Apart from IS, he also mentioned Kurdish People’s Protection Units in northern Syria (YPG) and Democratic Union Party (PYD) as groups supported by the coalition.

“We have confirmed evidence, with pictures, photos and videos,” he added.

On Tuesday, Moscow also accused Washington of “sponsoring terrorism” in Syria. American helicopters have continually been filmed providing air cover for ISIS as early as 2014. The open air support from the US AirForce stopped when Moscow entered the frame, however Washington continued to support terrorists covertly as seen by the capture of dozens of US, British and French operatives in Aleppo.

Commenting on the latest National Defense Authorization Act signed into law by President Barack Obama, the Russian Foreign Ministry pointed out that the new bill “openly stipulates the possibility” of delivering more weapons to Syria.

Those arms “will soon find their way to the jihadists,” ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said, adding that America had “refused” to fully cooperate in fighting terrorism.

The New York Times reports: Undeterred by a resounding defeat at the United Nations, Israel’s government said Monday that it would move ahead with thousands of new homes in East Jerusalem and warned nations against further action, declaring that Israel does not “turn the other cheek.”

Just a few days after the United Nations Security Council voted to condemn Israeli settlements, Jerusalem’s municipal government signaled that it would not back down: The city intends to approve 600 housing units in the predominantly Palestinian eastern section of town on Wednesday in what a top official called a first installment on 5,600 new homes.

The defiant posture reflected a bristling anger among Israel’s pro-settlement political leaders, who not only blamed the United States for failing to block the Council resolution, but also claimed to have secret intelligence showing that President Obama’s team had orchestrated it. American officials strongly denied the claim, but the sides seem poised for more weeks of conflict until Mr. Obama hands over the presidency to Donald J. Trump.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lashed out at Security Council countries by curbing diplomatic contacts, recalling envoys, cutting off aid and summoning the American ambassador for a scolding. He canceled a planned visit this week by Ukraine’s prime minister even as he expressed concern on Monday that Mr. Obama was planning more action at the United Nations before his term ends next month.

The prime minister defended his retaliation. “Israel is a country with national pride, and we do not turn the other cheek,” he said. “This is a responsible, measured and vigorous response, the natural response of a healthy people that is making it clear to the nations of the world that what was done at the U.N. is unacceptable to us.” [Continue reading…]

Let’s suppose the resolution that just passed in the Security Council was now presented to the General Assembly. It would, without doubt, also receive overwhelming support there too.

In that event, what would Netanyahu then do? Look for ways in which Israel can punish the whole world?

That Netanyahu insists Israel does not “turn the other cheek,” says two things:

He views the resolution as a form of victimization. The UN, supposedly under Obama’s direction, is “ganging up” on Israel.

And this victimization is an expression of anti-Semitism — by referencing the Christian dictum, he is insinuating that the resolution is implicitly an attack on Jews.

But this is a reflex doomed for endless repetition. Those who truly believe that the whole world stands against them, not because of what they do but because of who they are, allow themselves to be snared by their own identity.

The Trumpsters are coming to town—led by a failed gambling czar, corporate welfare king and major tax escapee—and they are hell bent on unmaking Washington, D.C.

With all three branches of government  dominated by Republican members of Congress and Republican appointees—due to a mixture of abysmal deficiencies in the Democratic Party and the interloping luck of the atavistic Electoral College—the wrecking crew of Trump’s nominees to high cabinet and other positions brings with it a host of politically perilous baggage.

First, the Trumpsters have vowed to dismantle various government programs. They are determined to severely limit the protection of labor, replace public schools with taxpayer-funded vouchers for private schools, and drop regulatory protections in the health, safety and environmental fields, among others. Acting without the requisite legal authority is of little concern to Mr. Trump.

Having sworn in their oaths of office (to “faithfully execute the laws of the land,”), they will find themselves quickly sued, exposed in the mass media and opposed by the law-abiding civil service. It will be a whistleblower’s field day. Trump will have serious trouble binding himself to the rule of law and the Constitution.

Second, the Trumpsters will establish more secretive government, led by their very secretive boss (note his refusal to reveal his incriminating tax returns); too much secrecy always gets government officials in trouble sooner or later, from legal trouble to media trouble to citizen revulsion over the resultant corruption scandals. Heavily staffed with militarists and corporatists, the incoming Trump regime will be hostile to open democratic processes and vulnerable to governing by cover-ups.

Third, since most of the top nominees are wealthy with many financial interests, they stand accused of conflicts of interest, even as they divest assets and place them in so-called blind trusts.

How can the restaurateur and fast-food chain magnate, Andrew Puzder, the next Secretary of Labor, escape being seen as conflicted when he has opposed labor unions and has opposed increases to the stagnant $7.25 per hour federal minimum wage? Similar conflicts exist with the new Secretary of State—Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson—with that company’s far flung concessions and investments around the world. People who got rich in business and leave to serve public office tend to go back into the business world from whence they came.

Fourth, Trump’s nominees are for the most part confirmed role-players in radical corporate-statism. They can talk a good game against crony capitalism or corporate welfare, but the soaring stock market, including defense industry stocks, signal that Wall Street likes the Trump team. This is not exactly what many of Trump’s supporters expected after November 8.

Trump promised a bigger military budget, corporate tax cuts and fewer regulatory health and safety protections for consumers, workers and the environment. With a Republican-dominated Congress he may achieve these objectives, but they will be accompanied by rising deficits, more inflation, and the cost of preventable human casualties.

Fifth, the maximum peril Trump’s administration brings to the country could come from its extreme hubris with regard to its military aggressiveness overseas. Trump has picked three retired generals well-suited to advance Empire’s constantly boomeranging attacks in whichever country in Asia and Africa they choose. Certainly President Obama, presently conducting wars in numerous countries without Congressional declaration, has opened the door to these unconstitutional adventures.

The Trump military and national security team is not looking for peace treaties or strategies that avoid the spread of stateless terrorism around the world.

One major terror attack on the U.S. and Trump becomes a warring, civil-liberties destroying monster of over-reaction, forsaking and crowding out other priorities and necessities that a mature society must address.

With his megalomaniacal, easily bruisable ego, his impulsive middle-of-the-night tweets against opponents, and his unwillingness to absorb critical facts with reflection and prudence, we cannot trust his judgement to serve the best interest of the people, especially given his belligerent advisors raising dangerous risks on the horizon.

Nothing short of a robust organization of wise and experienced, retired military, national security and diplomatic officials, who served under both parties, supported by adequate resources and media access, can have a chance to slow down what can become a deadly momentum of brute force and troop expansion overseas.

Enlightened billionaires have to step up to make this happen before a likely unleashing of Trumpian rage and rant. This is not a man who can learn from the bitter lessons of history.

And citizens from all walks of life—left and right—need to defend our democracy, our civil liberties, and the health and safety protections that at their best made our country a model for so many other countries.

See my book, Breaking Through Power: It’s Easier than We Think for more information on how citizens can fight Trump administration excesses.

The head of the Iranian National Carpet Center has announced the resumption of Iran’s hand-woven carpet export to the US during post-sanctions era.

Hamid Karegar, speaking in a meeting with Qazvin Governor General Fereidoun Hemmati on Sunday, said that Iran resumed carpet exports to the US in the wake of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

“Carpet exports to the US in the eight months of the current Iranian year was set on $50 million compared to zero in the previous year,” he underlined.

Kargar stated that Iranian carpet exporters have not been present in American market for five years as a result of which Indian carpets have taken the place of Iranian rugs.

He further emphasized that before the imposition of international sanctions against Iranian carpets in 2010, the US remained as the top importer of Persian Carpet with a share of more than 16.5 per cent worth 82 million dollars.

Noting that carpet exports to China have also increased in recent years, Karegar said that over the past five years, carpet exports to China has raised to eight million dollars from previous 8000 dollars.

Sanctions on the country’s carpet industry imposed negative impacts on its exports, Kargar said, adding after JCPOA we have seen openings in sales of Iranian goods to the customers in foreign countries.

Iran’s carpet industry dates back to 3,000 years ago and currently, one million artists are engaged in the industry, Karegar noted.

Bangladesh will support Qatar’s UNESCO candidate, according to local news reports.

According to the Qatar News Agency (QNA), Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed reiterated Tuesday her country’s support for HE Hamad bin Abdulaziz Al Kuwari, adviser at the Emiri Diwan and Qatar’s candidate for the director general post at UNESCO.

Sheikh Hasina also said she is very happy to know that for the first time a candidate from Arab countries is contesting the post, reported Gulf Times.

The announcement, followed a Tuesday meeting in Dhaka between Sheikh Hasina Wajed and Qatar’s candidate, where Bangladesh’s PM said that “this support is an expression of the depth of bilateral relations and confidence in the competency of the Qatari candidate.”

Sheikh Hasina Wajed also expressed her wish to further strengthen the relations between the two countries, QNA reported.

The liberation of Aleppo is a major step in the liberation of Syria from terrorists, said Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, but further cooperation is needed between regional players.

According to Lavrov, Russia worked jointly with Turkey and Iran to prepare the voluntary evacuation of civilians and organized the withdrawal of armed opposition from eastern Aleppo, “which has saved many innocent lives.”

“Unfortunately, our previous agreements with the United States have been derailed by our American partners. Washington has failed or did not want to do the main thing – separate the so-called moderate opposition from the ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra terrorists, and other extremist groups,” Lavrov made the comments in an Interfax news agency that was released by the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry.

With regard to further relations in the region, Lavrov, said, according to the interview, “We will continue to strengthen our cooperation with Turkey, Iran and other regional countries on Syria.”

“President of Russia Vladimir Putin has more than once proposed creating a broad counterterrorist front based on international law and supported by the UN. We are ready for constructive cooperation towards this end with all those who care for the future of Syria and their own countries,” Lavrov said.

Lavrov said that Russia has consistently upheld the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Syria. “We stand firmly for Syria to remain a united, multi-ethnic, multi-confessional, democratic and secular state,” Lavrov said.

As for specific forms of government, the Syrians alone can decide this and a number of other issues through an inclusive national dialogue, Lavrov said.

“During a recent meeting with my Iranian and Turkish colleagues in Moscow, we approved a joint statement reaffirming our countries’ willingness to contribute to the development of and to guarantee the implementation of the negotiated agreement between the Syrian government and the opposition,” said the Russian Foreign Affairs Minister.

With respect to the United States and President-Elect Donald Trump, Lavrov said, “It would be premature to talk about the kind of relations on specific issues we may have with the Republican administration.”

“We hope to be able to develop a pragmatic dialogue, “the Russia Foreign Affairs Minister said, adding, “As I have said, effective cooperation between Russia and the United States is possible, but only after Washington stops using deterrence tools and blackmail and ceases its attempts to force its will on us. The ball is in the US court now.”

Missions at sea, in mountainous regions or close to skyscrapers are extremely risky for helicopter pilots. The turbulent air flows near oil rigs, ships, cliffs and tall buildings can throw a helicopter off balance and cause a crash. To provide pilots with optimal preparation for these challenging conditions, engineers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) are developing new simulation software.

Providing helicopter pilots with the best possible preparation for extreme situations: That is the goal of the new simulation software being developed by researchers working at TUM’s Chair of Helicopter Technology. For the first time, real-time computational analysis will be implemented for both fluid mechanics and flight dynamics.

“Until now, flight simulators have not adequately reflected the reality of flying in close proximity to large objects,” said Dr. Juergen Rauleder. “The problem is that, when it comes to wind conditions and the response of the helicopter, existing programs follow a rigid pattern. That means that local variations and changing conditions are not taken into account – unless the entire flow environment is known in advance.”

But it is the unforeseen air flows that can be the most treacherous: For example, a moving ship causes air turbulence and sudden local shifts in wind speed known by specialists as “ship airwake flow”. It changes continually through wave action and fluctuating inflow conditions. In addition, turbulence occurs near the deck, the bridge and other ship structures. As a helicopter approaches the ship, there is interference between these air currents and the flow produced by the rotors. Conditions near a mountain slope or next to high buildings are similarly complicated. In all of these cases, the helicopter’s flight characteristics are influenced by complex and overlapping aerodynamic effects.

Stress for pilots and machines

Dealing with those situations takes a lot of skill and practice, both of which can currently be acquired only through on-the-job training. To become adept at landing on a ship in heavy seas, for example, a student pilot has to repeat this tricky situation dozens of times with an experienced flight instructor. That’s the only way to gain the necessary experience to compensate for the complex interplay of air flows through perfectly timed adjustments to the pitch of the rotor blades.

“Conventional training is expensive, risky and very stressful for student pilots. It also imposes heavy demands on the aircraft: Because the first attempts usually result in rather hard landings, the dampers and landing gear take quite a beating,” explained Rauleder.

Flow fields and flight dynamics all in one

His team has now developed a simulation program that combines flow mechanics and flight dynamics in real time: “The numerical model is extremely flexible and does not depend on stored flow data. We only have to enter the external conditions such as topography, global wind speeds and the helicopter type. During the simulation, our algorithms use that data to continuously compute the interacting flow field at the virtual helicopter’s current location,” the engineer explained.

The new program also lets pilots instantly “feel” the impact of the local air flows on the helicopter. This allows them to try out the effects of their control movements in a stress-free situation: perfect preparation for a soft landing that is easy on the aircraft. The potential of this method has attracted international interest, including from the U.S. Office of Naval Research, which is contributing funding under the auspices of its basic research program.

The ultimate test for flight simulators: reality

The TUM researchers have successfully validated the new real-time simulation with established reference models. All that is left to do is the biggest test of all: the reality check. To find out whether the virtual models actually reflect conditions at sea, the engineers are cooperating with researchers at the U.S. Naval Academy, the George Washington University and the University of Maryland.

The specialists in Washington have measured air flows on a ship using hundreds of sensors. To check the flight dynamics, the TUM team will also be using in-flight data collected by the German Aerospace Center (DLR).

“The validation of the models and testing of our simulation environment by experienced pilots in our research simulator is enormously important for our developments,” said Rauleder. “That’s the only way we can ensure that the simulator training provides student pilots with optimal preparation for tough missions.”

An increase in heart attacks around the festive period may be due to more difficult access to hospitals, combined with stress, an excess of alcohol and a fatty diet, according to University of Melbourne researchers.

Previous research from the US has established that the Christmas holidays are related to more heart attacks, however, it was thought it could be due to the season – winter – when mortality rates are at their highest.

To find out, University of Melbourne researchers analyzed 25 years’ of death records of heart attacks between Christmas and the first week of January, during summer in the southern hemisphere.

The research, published today, in the Journal of the American Heart Association, revealed a 4.2 percent increase in heart-related deaths occurring out of hospital during the Christmas period in New Zealand.

And victims were typically younger. The average age of cardiac death was 76.2 years during the Christmas period compared with 77.1 years at other times of the year.

Lead author and researcher at the Centre for Health Policy at the University of Melbourne, Josh Knight, said by using data from a country where Christmas occurs in the height of summer, he was able to separate any “holiday effect” from the “winter effect”.

Knight said that there is a need to understand whether restricted access to healthcare facilities might be combining with other risk factors such as emotional stress, changes in diet, alcohol consumption result in the spike in cardiac deaths.

He suggested patients might also hold back in seeking medical care during the holiday season.

“The Christmas holiday period is a common time for travel within New Zealand, with people frequently holidaying away from their main medical facilities,” he said.

“This could contribute to delays in both seeking treatment, due to a lack of familiarity with nearby medical facilities, and due to geographic isolation from appropriate medical care in emergency situations.”

Another explanation may have to do with a terminally ill patients’ will to live and hold off death for a day that is important to them.

“The ability of individuals to modify their date of death based on dates of significance has been both confirmed and refuted in other studies, however it remains a possible explanation for this holiday effect,” Mr Knight said.

Sperm are constantly replenished in the adult male body. Understanding the workings of stem cells responsible for this replenishment is expected to shed light on why male fertility diminishes with age, and possibly lead to new treatments for infertility.

“So-called Myc genes play an important role in stem cells’ ability to self-renew,” said Kyoto University’s Takashi Shinohara, who is interested specifically in spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs), which are responsible for producing sperm. Shinohara adds that SSCs are unique, because they are “the only stem cells that transmit genetic information to offspring.”

In a new report in Genes & Development, the Shinohara lab demonstrates how the Myc gene regulates the self-renewal of mouse SSCs, via a process of glycolysis control. Glycolysis is a key part of cells’ energy-making mechanism.

The scientists injected two types of SSCs into mouse testes: normal cells in some, and Myc gene-suppressed in others. Two months later, they found that the total number of abnormal SSCs was far fewer than normal ones. Gene analysis showed that the capacity for self-renewal had been compromised, with possibly important implications for sperm production in these mice.

“We found changes in the expression of genes that would slow the cell cycle,” said Shinohara.

In other words, suppressed SSCs could self-renew, but at a slower than normal rate. Further study showed that this diminished rate was accompanied by impaired glycolysis, suggesting that the cells were not generating sufficient energy.

“A difference in glycolysis could explain natural differences in SSC self-renewal between mice,” said Mito Kanatsu-Shinohara, first-author of the paper. “DBA/2 and B6 are two mouse types in which SSCs are know to self-renew at different rates.”

Further experiments confirmed that glycolysis was more active in the cells of DBA/2 mice. Moreover, isolating cells from B6 mice and treating them with certain chemicals that enhanced glycolysis could increase the proliferation rate to levels comparable with DBA/2.

“These findings could have important implications for infertility research in the future,” said Shinohara. “Stimulating the metabolism of SSCs could improve their proliferation. However, more careful study of the molecular pathways is necessary.”

Artificial intelligence-enabled technologies like autonomous vehicles and advanced robotics promise to bring about greater automation and efficiency. These emerging technologies will also destroy jobs. A deeper understanding of their implications is needed if we are to be future-ready.

By Tan Teck Boon*

Amazon recently announced that it would soon be opening a convenience store in Seattle called Amazon Go. This foray into the brick-and-mortar business by the American online retail giant is not the only remarkable thing about Amazon Go. What is more striking is that the store will be replacing cashiers with an artificial intelligence (AI) system that knows which items customers have taken from the shelves and then charges them accordingly.

AI — by definition — refers to machines or computer systems that mimic human cognition and intelligence. Experts believe that AI will someday be capable of self-directed learning and automated decision-making. Like you and me, full-blown AI will also be able to come up with superior ways to complete a task. In fact, it will even get the job done faster, better and smarter than you and I ever could. But unlike humans, it will never complain, get angry or become tired. As AI increasingly displaces humans in many tasks, could it be humanity’s final undoing?

An Existential Threat?

Earlier this year, AlphaGo — an AI system developed by Google — defeated a world champion in the ancient Chinese board game of Go. The trouncing of South Korea’s Lee Se-dol is a crowning achievement for AI. Billions of dollars have flowed into perfecting the technology since the mid-1950s and now, it has finally beaten a world champion in a board game considered by many to be the world’s most complex.

Yet, despite its impressive computing prowess, AlphaGo still does not have the slightest clue that it had beaten a world champion. This is because it lacks a fundamental understanding of what winning is. What this means is that the most sophisticated AI system right now is oblivious of its own existence. And until AI develops self-awareness, it is not going to see the human race as a competitor, let alone a threat to its survival.

At the moment, most AI experts agree that the advent of human-level AI will not happen for many decades – and that is assuming that the feat is even possible. Crucially, we do not even know exactly how the human brain works, not to mention building a computational system capable of replicating it. So at least for now, we can be more or less certain that AI is not going to supersede us and turn into an existential threat to humanity.

The Real Danger: Technological Unemployment & An Uncertain Future

While AI may not be a threat to human existence, it will certainly usher in other fresh challenges. The most worrisome and pressing one right now is surely technological unemployment — a term that refers to jobs destroyed by new technology.

Although we are still far away from an AI system capable of human-like cognition and intelligence, rudimentary AI technology can already be found in, among other things, advanced robotics, autonomous vehicles and everyday objects labelled under the Internet of Things (IoT). The automation and efficiency that these emerging technologies bring will almost certainly destroy many jobs.

Already, the World Economic Forum has estimated that as many as five million jobs around the world will be made redundant by AI-enabled technologies in the next five years. Soon, researchers, lawyers and even doctors could be joining bus drivers, waiters, cleaners and cashiers at the unemployment lines.

Ironically, Singapore might benefit from the introduction of AI-enabled technologies. Since the country suffers from persistent labour shortages, AI-enabled technologies will help fill those jobs that are either hard-to-fill or in high demand. These emerging technologies are also expected to support an economy that is highly automated and energy efficient. As Singapore undergoes rapid demographic ageing, AI-enabled technologies like carebots can also be deployed in the area of elderly care. In short, Singapore could stand to gain from these technologies.

The story however, will be quite different for neighbouring countries with a large labour force. As AI-enabled technologies proliferate, these countries will have to deal with waves of workers that can no longer find employment. Many manufacturing jobs will disappear dashing hopes of a rising middle-class in these countries. Political upheaval could follow. And it is not hard to envision economic and political instability deteriorating into security problems.

Even though Singapore is expected to benefit from AI-enabled technologies, how it will be affected by an increasingly unstable region is less clear. Moreover, it is also unclear at the moment what repercussions these emerging technologies will have on the society once they are deployed.

Need to Think Ahead

In spite of its far-reaching implications, AI remains a deeply arcane field. Rarely in history has a technology so powerful and important been understood or for that matter, controlled by so few. That ought to be a major cause for concern.

For the foreseeable future, AI is unlikely to exterminate humanity. But AI-enabled technologies will destroy jobs and even though Singapore is expected to benefit from these emerging technologies, unintended consequences – not all of them good – will surely follow. Getting a handle on what these negative impacts might be would be the first step to being future-ready.

This is easier said than done. Pre-occupied with short and intermediate-term concerns, most governments do not have the bandwidth to study the sweeping implications of AI in great detail. That is unfortunate since a finer appreciation of the technology is at least needed to reduce the risk of being blindsided by it.

So going forward, we need to have a better understanding of what the negative repercussions of AI might be. This would require among other things, thinking ahead what those adverse ramifications might be as well as the kind of policy interventions needed to address them. Only then can we be better prepared for the day when the technology becomes an indispensable part of our lives. That would be the first step toward a future that is not only smart, but also secure.

*Tan Teck Boon is a Research Fellow with the National Security Studies Programme in the Office of the Executive Deputy Chairman, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. An earlier version appeared in TODAY.

By Sarantis Michalopoulos

(EurActiv) — Japan has overtaken Russia as the fourth most important export destination of EU agri-food products after the United States, China, and Switzerland, a new European Commission report has found (23 December).

According to the Monitoring EU Agri-Food Trade report, from November 2015 to October 2016, EU agri-food exports reached a value of €129.9 billion, a 1.9% increase in value terms compared to the same period last year.

The export surplus for the 12-month period increased to more than €18 billion.

Exports to Russia further down

According to the report, major gains were recorded in agri-food exports to the USA (+8%), China (+12%), Japan (+0.4 billion) and Vietnam (+330 million).

Exports to Russia further decreased, from €5.7 billion in November 2014 to October 2015, to €5.5 billion during the period November 2015 to October 2016, representing a 5% reduction in value.

Russia now is the fifth most popular destination for the EU agri-food exports behind the US, China, Switzerland, and Japan.

Japan and the trade deal

Japan has become the fourth most important export market for EU agri-food worldwide. The net surplus in agri-food trade with Tokyo has been estimated at €5 billion annually for the last few years.

EU producers mainly export to Japan pork, wine and vermouth, cheese and spirits and liqueurs.

Negotiations for a free trade agreement between the EU and Japan are ongoing and, according to the Commission, a successful conclusion would open further opportunities for the EU agri-food sector.

The EU-Japan Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is expected to boost the European economy by around 0.8% of GDP. Some analysts compare the importance of the deal with that of TTIP where the number is 0.5% according to preliminary expectations.

EU chief negotiator Mauro Petriccione said this month (17 December) that the EU and Japan would seek a broad agreement on a bilateral free trade deal next year, setting a new deadline partly due to dairy sector tariff issues.

“We will need to continue working in the next few weeks in order to bridge the remaining distance and reach an agreement in principle, with the right balance, as early as possible at the beginning of next year,” Petriccione stated at a news conference in Tokyo.

According to the EPP-affiliated Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský (Křesťanská a demokratická unie), the EU would benefit from concluding the FTA with Japan, as it could boost Japanese investment in Europe.

“We often talk about investment from China as if we have forgotten about one of our most important and stable partners,” EurActiv Czech Republic quoted him as saying after a European Parliament delegation visit to the country.

Spain’s Council of Ministers has approved a Royal Decree-Law establishing a new mechanism to finance the electricity bono social (special discount rate) and several measures to protect consumers, particularly focusing on the most needy.

Spain’s Minister for Energy, Tourism and Digital Agenda, Álvaro Nadal, highlighted that the text, which will have to be approved by the Lower House of Parliament, derives from the agreement reached between the different political forces to resolve “a highly complex problem”.

Firstly, the new legislation guarantees the financing of the bono social, which at present consists of a 25% discount in the final electricity bill, which some 2.3 million households benefit from, including families with all their members unemployed, those receiving minimum pensions, large families and consumers with less than 3 kW of power contracted.

According to the minister, the bono social was paid by the parent companies of those electricity suppliers who were integrated in large groups – 94% of the market – but the Supreme Court ruled back in October that this system was discriminatory because it did not include the other 6% of suppliers.

The new legislation approved last Friday includes 100% of the supplier market that operates in our country, such that the parent company or, in their absence, the supply company itself will cover this special discount rate. Hence, the electricity sector will continue to pay for this special discount, underlined Álvaro Nadal.

Now that the financing is guaranteed, the Royal Decree-Law introduces various new features so that the government, through its regulatory development, can heighten the protection of electricity consumers.

Firstly, it provides the possibility for a broader definition of ‘vulnerable consumer’. While 7 million people form part of this category at present and receive the same 25% discount in their invoice, this may be divided in the future into different groups, according to income, and thus receive different levels of aid. This change will come into force, according to Álvaro Nadal, “as soon as we approve the legislation, which must be discussed and debated by the political forces because this is an incredibly sensitive issue”.

Secondly, the period for cutting off the electricity supply to certain consumers is increased from two to four months, “in categories still to be determined”, pointed out the minister. In the case of households in a situation of particular vulnerability, those that are attended by social services, the new legislation establishes a ban on cutting off the supply.

Álvaro Nadal specified that when an electricity company finds itself with an unpaid debt, it must immediately notify the consumer, which is not obligatory at present. From that point on, a period of two to four months will elapse, depending on the category of consumer, before the supply can be cut off. Electricity companies will have to contact the social services department of the corresponding regional government to ascertain whether it is a consumer in an extremely vulnerable situation; should this be the case, it may not cut off the supply. The regional government or local authority will take over the payments and debts, which will be co-financed by the bono social.

This Royal Decree-Law also improves the conditions of the supply to consumers as a whole, particularly through the creation of an indicator that will allow them to compare the different offers available, as takes place with mortgages in the financial sector.

Álvaro Nadal recalled that the process to implement this will need to pass through the hands of the European Commission, the National Markets and Competition Commission and the Council of State. The government, he remarked, will try “to discuss these developments with the other political forces as soon as possible and ensure that the system is operational in the near future”.

By Ashok Sajjanhar

For the first in 13 years, the President of Kyrgyzstan made a visit to India this month. President Almazbek Atambayev paid a four-day State visit from 18 to 21. Atambayev had taken over as President in 2011 and his term expires on 1 December next year.

The last President to visit India was Askar Akayev in 2003. He had visited India in 1992, 1999 and 2002 also – making four presidential visits in 11 years.

Kyrgyzstan is the only country in Central Asia to have witnessed a regime change through the Tulip Revolution in 2005 which saw the ouster of Akayev by Kurmanbek Bakiyev who himself was removed after a spate of violent protests in 2010. Roza Otunbayeva became the interim President. She was succeeded after elections by Atambayev in 2011.

From India also a long interregnum of twenty years occurred between the first visit to Kyrgyzstan by Prime Minister Narasimha Rao in 1995 to the second Prime Ministerial visit by Narendra Modi in July, 2015. Relations between India and Kyrgyz Socialist Soviet Republic during the Soviet period were vibrant and dynamic in continuation of the extensive cultural and historical ties between India and this region. The long gap of twenty years was however avoidable and should not have been allowed to occur.

Kyrgyzstan is located in a strategically and geo-politically important region which is crucial for the stability and security of India. Kyrgyzstan shares the Fergana valley with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The valley is house to several terrorist groups like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Hizb-ut-Tahtir (HuT) and others which can cause instability. They are prone to increasingly indulge in violent acts if Taliban expands its presence from beyond the borders of Afghanistan. Islamic State has also been making forays into the region. This has further enhanced risks and danger to stability and security of Kyrgyzstan and other countries of Central Asia.

Radicalisation of youth has become a serious problem in the country with several hundred young women and men leaving their homes to go and join forces with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. For all the above reasons, the country assumes a huge importance for India.

Recognising the strategic significance of the country, Prime Minister Narasimha Rao had reached out to its leadership just after its independence by inviting President Akayev to visit India in 1992 and himself visiting the country in 1995. Subsequently however Kyrgyzstan fell off the radar screen of the Indian leadership. This neglect was set right by PM Modi with his visit to Kyrgyzstan last year on 11-12 July, 2015 on way back from Russia after the BRICS/SCO Summits. It is a matter of considerable satisfaction that President Atambayev has decided to visit India within 17 months of the visit by PM Modi to Bishkek. Visits by Indian Vice-Presidents to Bishkek took place in 1996 and 1999 but such tours by Vice-Presidents or even Presidents are never as substantive or effective as those by Prime Ministers. Presidential and Vice-Presidential visits are usually seen as occasions for pomp, show and glamour and to focus on cultural issues and softer aspects of relations and not on hard and vital elements of bilateral ties.

Trade and economic relations between India and Kyrgyzstan are at an uninspiring level of below US$ 30 million. Trade is weighted heavily in India’s favour. Connectivity is a formidable obstacle in expanding bilateral trade as Pakistan does not permit people and goods to travel to and from Kyrgyzstan through its territory. Recent initiatives by India to fast-track the construction, operationalisation, simplification and streamlining of procedures for transport over the International North-South Transport Corridor as well as construction of the Chabahar sea-port and its hinterland will go a long way in improving connectivity between the two countries.

During President Atambayev’s visit, areas of fight against terrorism and extremism, defence cooperation and enhancing trade and economic exchanges received particular attention. Both sides agreed to enhance collaboration in fighting the forces of militarism and violence.

Both countries collaborate in conducting defence exercises annually. The countries are jointly constructing the Kyrgyz-Indian Mountain Training Centre in Balykchi in Issyk-Kul district of Kyrgyzstan. This Centre will provide instruction and training to personnel of the Armed Forces of the Kyrgyz Republic and also host joint mountain training exercises. India has erected a military hospital and IT centers in a number of military institutions in Kyrgyzstan. The two countries also jointly undertake mountaineering expeditions to scale new and challenging peaks.

President Atambayev extended support to India’s membership of UN Security Council as well as to its imminent membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. India’s membership of SCO will go a long way in strengthening its collaboration and partnership with the Central Asian Republics as it will provide an opportunity to Indian Prime Ministers in the coming years to regularly meet the Presidents of Central Asian Republics (CARs) on an annual basis at the SCO Summits. This will provide a significant impetus to India’s bilateral ties with CARs as also promote regional cooperation.

Six Agreements including collaboration in tourism, agriculture and food industry, youth development, training of diplomats, National Cadet Corps, and broadcasting and exchange of audiovisual programmes were signed. These will further strengthen official and people-to-people linkages.

India and Kyrgyzstan collaborate extensively in the area of conducting elections, training of personnel, sharing best practices in democracy building etc. India offered to share its experience in special courses which will be arranged for members and staff of the Kyrgyz Parliament. It can be said without fear of contradiction that amongst all the Central Asian Republics, democracy has developed the strongest roots in Kyrgyzstan.

The two countries collaborate in the joint Mountain Biomedical Research Center. India has established several telemedicine facilities in a number of districts in Kyrgyzstan. India contributes actively in training and upgrading human resources of the Kyrgyz public and private sector through the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme.

Bilateral Investment Treaty to promote economic exchanges was initialed by the two sides during the visit.The two countries are buiding on the progress achieved in the field of agriculture envisaging inter alia, University to University cooperation; setting up of a demonstration unit for drip irrigation; and promoting exports of dry fruits, honey and walnuts from Kyrgyz Republic to India. Kyrgyzstan welcomes India’s assistance in establishing aromatic industry and consultancy in the field of organic farming.

Tourism was identified as an important sector in which significant untapped potential exists.They agreed to work on simplifying and facilitating issuance of visas.

Kyrgyzstan highlighted opportunities available for Indian entrepreneurs as a result of their joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). It may be recalled that a Working Group was establsihed last year to study the feasibility of India’s membership of EEU. Some complications could arise if, as reported recently in the media, EEU enters into a tie-up with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which runs from Gwadar in South Balochistan to Xinjiang in China.

President Atambayev particpated in a Joint Business Forum organised by ASSOCHAM, FICCI and CII in which he invited Indian businessmen to invest more and expand economic collaboration with Kyrgyzstan in the area of education, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, agricuture, food processing etc.

President Atambayev’s visit provided another opportunity to Prime Minister Modi to substantively interact with the leader of an important country in our extended neighbourhood. This was their third meeting over the past eighteen months, the second having taken place in Tashkent during the SCO Summit in June, 2016.

Discussions held and pacts signed will go a long way to further strengthen and expand cooperation in security, defence, trade, economic and cultural relations between the two countries.

As the number of political prisoners on hunger strikes are increasing in Iranian prisons, three prisoners who have been on hunger strike for the past seven weeks are slowly dying: Arash Sadeghi, Morteza Moradpour and Ali Shariati.

Aside from the three, Saeed Shirzad, children rights activist serving a 5 year sentence, has sewed his lips in order to refuse food. Shirzad has been on hunger strike as of 7 Dec 2016. Nizar Zakka, a Lebanese citizen and U.S. permanent resident, who is serving a 10 year sentence related to alleged espionage charges, has also joined the striking group.

Ali Shariati, a reformist political prisoner has been in and out of prison since 2009 protests against presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He is currently serving a five year sentence for taking part in a 2014 protests in support of victims of acid attacks in Iran. Shariati refused food to demand a phone call with his family as of 31 Oct 2016. The prison has denied his visitation rights for weeks. He is continuing his strike and was taken to hospital on 9 December when his body shutdown and his heartbeat slowed significantly.

Arash Sadeghi who has been refusing to eat since 24 October 2016 had to be taken to hospital on 17 December following complications concerning his heart, blood pressure and gastrointestinal bleeding. He was transferred back to Ward 8 of Evin prison on the same day, after he refused to receive parenteral nutrition intravenously.

Arash Sadeghi has been protesting the unlawful arrest of his wife, Golrokh Ebrahimi Iraee, for an unpublished story. On the night that Iranian authorities raided Iraee and Sadeghi’s house to arrest Sadeghi, they found an unpublished fictional story that Iraee had written on the subject of adultery and stoning. Iraee has received a six year prison sentence for writing this story and some of her online activism. Sadeghi demands the reversal of this judgment.

In an open letter from prison Sadeghi calls Iraee “the love of his life,” stating that until her prison sentence is reversed, he will continue his hunger strike. Sadeghi has been in and out of prison since the 2009 protests disputing the results of presidential election in Iran. He is currently serving a 15-year prison related to his civil activism. The prison authorities have told him that he can join his wife after death.

On 24 Dec, Saeed Shirzad who has dedicated his life to the rights of children wrote a letter from Rajai Shahr prison, in Karaj. In that letter Shirzad stated that the prison official routinely violate prisoner’s basic human rights, systematically neglecting the medical needs of prisoners.

Shirzad who started his strike on 17 December has demanded an end to neglect for prisoners’ health and medical needs.

Shirzad too has been in and out of prison since 2012. His first detention was in August 2012, when he went to East Azerbaijan, to help the affected children after an earthquake. Shirzad is currently serving a five year prison sentence handed to him in 2015 for his campaigns to help with the educational needs of the children of political prisons.

Morteza Moradpoir an Azeri Ethnic prisoner has been on hunger strike since 25 Oct 2016 in Tabriz prison. He is demanding his own release after serving two years of a three year sentence in prison which makes him eligible for parole.

Morteza and his brother Fardin Moradpour as well as several other Azerbaijani activists were arrested in 2009 for taking part in a rally. They were demanding their ethnic rights including the right to education in one’s own language.

Morteza’s health has been affected greatly by his hunger strike specially because he refuses the intake of sugar and he has lost more than 30 Kilograms.

Hassan Rastegari Majd, Iranian-Turkish citizen who is serving a 15 year sentence for involvement with Kurdish opposition groups in Urmia prison. He has been relocated to solitary confinement since the onset of the strike on 3 Dec 2016.

Lavin Karimi is another prisoner who has been arrested on charges of involvement with opposition Kurdish groups and sentenced to five years in prison. There are some unconfirmed reports of Karimi joining the prison-wide hunger strikes in Iran because she has been denied medical care for a bleeding stomach ulcer. Karimi has been on hunger strike as of 23 December 2016, but Zamaneh could not independently confirm this with her family.

Hot on the heels of China gold import restrictions, and India’s demonetization and gold confiscations, the European Commission proposed tightening controls on cash and precious metals transfers from outside the EU under the guise of shutting down one route for funding of militant attacks on the continent, following the Berlin Christmas attack.

China has already begun de facto gold import restrictions, and as Jayant Bhandari detailed previously, India is experiencing a continuation of new social engineering notifications, each sabotaging wealth-creation, confiscating people’s wealth, and tyrannizing those who refuse to be a part of the herd, in the process destroying the very backbone of the economy and civilization. There are clear signs that in a very convoluted way, possession of gold for investment purposes will be made illegal. Expect capital controls to follow.

And now, as Reuters reports, it appears last Monday’s attack on a Christmas market in Berlin, where 12 people were killed as a truck ploughed into a crowd, has given The European Commission just the excuse to tighten capital controls – specifically cash and precious metals – into and out of Europe.

It is part of an EU “action plan against terrorist financing” unveiled after the bombings and shootings in Paris in November 2015.

Under the new proposals, customs officials in European Union states can step up checks on cash and prepaid payment cards sent by post or in freight shipments.

Authorities will also be able to seize cash or precious metals carried by suspect individuals entering the EU.

People carrying more than 10,000 euros (8,413.56 pounds) in cash already have to declare this at customs when entering the EU. The new rules would allow authorities to seize money below that threshold “where there are suspicions of criminal activity,” the EU executive commission said in a note.

EU officials said some of the recent attacks in Europe were carried out with limited funds, sometimes sent from outside the EU by criminal networks.

The Commission is also considering whether to set up an EU-focussed “terrorist finance tracking programme” along the lines of the U.S.-EU TFTP, which has long been opposed by EU lawmakers and privacy campaigners because it allows widespread checks on consumers’ bank transfers.

The plan complements Commission proposals after the Paris attacks to tighten controls on virtual currencies such as bitcoin, and prepaid cards, which French authorities said were used to fund the bombings.

EU states backed these proposals on Tuesday. Under the deal, which still needs European Parliament approval, holders of prepaid cards would have to show some form of identity when they make payments of 150 euros or more.

But it gets better…

The Commission is also proposing common rules for the 28 EU countries on freezing “terrorists’ financial resources” and on confiscating assets even from those thought to be connected to criminals.

So – cash, bitcoin, precious metals, and prepaid cards over $150 are all instruments of the “terrorists” and are now open to confiscation if you are a suspicious person… which, by their rhetoric, you are if you actually hold any of these assets.

The Vibrant Gujarat – Modi magic to mesmerize foreign investors – is upbeat amidst demonetization mayhem. Foreign investors are unnerved. 8th series of Vibrant Gujarat, to be held in January 2017, is expected to glitter with the overwhelming participation of foreign investors. 7th series of Vibrant Gujarat was attended by delegates from 110 countries. Almost similar or even more number of countries are expected to attend the 8th summit, embracing high hopes for investment, which are bolstered by upsurge in Indian GDP – the highest in the world.

Gujarat, despite being a geopolitical investment risk zone because of its bordering with Pakistan and engulfed by the desert on the western front, excelled all the states in India in attracting foreign investment . It also edged out Chinese key investment zones in alluring foreign investment. In 2015, FDI projects announced in green-field projects in Gujarat was US $ 13.4 billion, which left behind Maharashtra ( US$ 8.3 billion) and Karnataka ( US$ 4.9 billion ) and the Chinese key zones like Shanghai Municipality ( US $ 10.6 billion ), Guangdong ( US $ 4.5 billion ) and , Jiangsu ( US$ 9.53 billion), according to Financial Times’ think tank FDI Intelligence ,

The FDI investment in Gujarat (based on green-field projects announced) witnessed a three-fold jump within five years. Till 2011, Gujarat was the place for conventional industries. Textiles , dye intermediates and pharmaceutical were the major industries under private sector.

The year 2012 was the watershed for industrial revolution in Gujarat under the Chief Minister –ship of Narendra Modi. Gujarat earned the legacy for foreign investment. There was a dramatic accession in FDI in Gujarat.

The success story of Gujarat as FDI legacy started with Japanese giant Maruti-Suzuki deciding to set up a giant automobile plant in the state. Besides Maruti-Suzuki, a slew of other auto MNCs, like Ford, General Motors and Honda ( two-wheeler) are in the queue to shift their expansion plans in Gujarat. Along with auto giants, a number of auto parts companies with Japanese joint ventures are likely to set up their manufacturing units in Gujarat.

The traditional industries were left in the back -foot and the modern industries made a jump start with larger participation of foreign investment. The faster growth in automobile, telecommunication and metallurgy are the cases in point. Gujarat is set to become a new hub for automobile , leaving behind Haryana and Tamilnadu.

Why did Gujarat outplay others in garnering FDI and infused a momentum in the growth of manufacturing under the leadership of Mr Narendra Modi, as Chief Minister. The crucial factors to enliven foreign investors were creation of investment friendly bureaucracy and the availability of land. Red tape in India , which triggered xenophobia among foreign investors in the world market, tapered with the timely approvals and better governance in Gujarat. In a joint survey by World Bank and DIPP (Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, India) , Gujarat topped in India in Ease of Doing Business in 2014-15.

Gujarat achieved a commendable success in electricity supply. All villages in Gujarat are now connected with electricity. No State has been successful to provide electricity to all villages in their respective state. Mr Modi’s is Jyotigram Yojana (Planning for all electricity) turned a big success for electricity supply in the State.

In non-conventional energy, Gujarat has become the country leader. It emerged the leader for solar energy in the country. It contributes two-third to the total solar energy produced in the country. It established Asia’s largest Solar Park in Charanka village in Patan district. Gujarat is the second biggest producer of wind energy in the country. It contributes about 15% to the total wind energy produced in the country
Another attraction for investment , created during Mr Modi’s regime , was the set up of a major port by Adani group, namely Mundra Port. With the initiative of Mr Modi, the first private sector major port, Mundra Port, was set up in 2005. This opened up a big channel for trade and commerce in Gujarat. Hitherto, Kandla Port in Gujarat, established by Central Government, was dealing with government imports, such as oil and refinery products.

Mr Modi introduced a novel scheme for manufacturing development, known as Special Investment Region scheme for industries. The scheme was statutorily enacted by The Gujarat Special Investment Regions Act 2009. Under this scheme, 13 potential areas were identified for promote industrial projects. Each SIR is more than 100 square KM . DMIC area covering Gujarat will be one of these potential areas. Another important SIR is Dhorela Special Investment Region. It is located proximity to Ahemdabd- the capital of Gujarat – at distance of 109 km. The unique feature of Dholera is that it is the first SIR to be designed under the proposed DMIC project.

Mr Modi also focused on city development and mass transport system. He took initiative to introduce BRTS ( Bus Rapid Transport System ) in Ahmedabad to provide better transport system for the rising population in the city. It started its operation on October 14, 2009. It should be noted that Gujarat does not have metro facilities. Probably, BRTS is a substitute for metro for the time being.

Today, in the industrial map of the country, Gujarat beams with land of manufacturing. It contributes about 16% to the country’s industrial output . Manufacturing in Gujarat accounts for about 27 percent its GDP, against the national average of 15. It scored highest GDP growth of 12 percent in 2015-16 against the national average of 7.5 `percent. One can thus see that Gujarat is today a challenge to other states and foreign investment in Gujarat acted as catalysis for the challenge.

* S. Majumder, Adviser, Japan External Trade Organization ( JETRO), New Delhi. Views are personal.

By Navrekha Sharma*

Jakarta’s popular, dynamic (and by all accounts, clean) Governor, Basuki “Ahok” Purnama, a Christian of Chinese descent, is on trial for saying, at a recent election rally to vote in the next governor, that his critics were deceiving the public by misusing a Koranic verse to suggest that Muslims must not be ruled by non-Muslims. His statement went viral – in a somewhat distorted form – which propelled Muslim vigilante groups (hitherto considered ‘fringe elements’ in Indonesia) centre stage.

However, in three colossal rallies held between October and December 2016 to demand Ahok’s prosecution for blasphemy were also hidden motivations of revenge: from slum-dwellers recently evicted in a clean-up drive or bureaucrats he had been tough with etc. Also (barely) concealed were ambitions for the next governorship of Jakarta and for the next presidency, through a stratagem of embarrassing President Jokowi – former governor and running mate of Ahok – into not seeking a second term in 2019. A trial court is expected to pronounce its verdict early in the new year.

Knowledgeable commentators agree that the governor’s remark was off-the-cuff, perhaps even a trifle careless, but most certainly without malicious intent. Nevertheless, a 100 per cent conviction rate under Indonesia’s blasphemy law of 1963 (dormant until democracy returned in 1998 and then used only by President SB Yudhoyono, who first caused shock waves by banning the Ahmadiyah) foretells a grim future not only for Ahok but also for Indonesia’s image as a modern, secular and pluralist democracy, a role model for the Muslim world.

Ahok’s rivals for governorship, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono and Anies Baswedan, are ambitious men with powerful connections. Yudhoyono is the son of a former president and from the military himself, while the latter is a protégé of Gen Prabowo (Soeharto’s erstwhile son-in-law), whom Jokowi defeated in 2014’s presidential race. The president initially ignored the protestors but when this brought the mob close to transferring its rage onto him, he chose to briefly share the platform with them, from where he expressed his confidence in the laws of the land. The gesture deflected the pressure (and also isolated his friend Ahok). However, conferring this degree of legitimacy upon thugs and vigilantes could prove costly for the country.

To say that Indonesia is a difficult country to govern is understating the problem. A vast and sprawling archipelago of 1,70,00 islands, it presents enormous cultural and ethnic diversity that has produced several successive ideological streams called aliran. In 1957, when armed militiamen and cadres of the Darul Islam were running amok in West Java, Sumatra and Sulawesi – encouraged in their subversive designs by a Communism-obsessed CIA – Soekarno overthrew Indonesia’s first (and cacophonous) parliament and stopped the constituent assembly from debating a new federal constitution. So began Indonesia’s ”guided democracy” and its forty year-long tryst with dictatorship. Between 1957 and 1997, under two successive authoritarian presidents (Soekarno and Soeharto), even publicly discussing aliran issues was forbidden lest national unity be endangered. Of course Indonesia in 1957 was a very poor country without strong economic fundamentals, which have since made it the darling of global investors.

Mark Twain once said that although history may not repeat itself, it sometimes rhymes. Democracy since 1998 has introduced unfamiliar strains into once regulated and predictable Indonesian lives. The presidential election two years ago saw disturbing signs of a popular yearning for the return of strong man Soeharto, when his ex-son-in-law Prabowo came within a whisker of victory. Is it outlandish then to worry that the expected results of the on-going trial could put a sharp brake on Indonesia’s still young, still secular democracy, and either radicalise its society completely or restore its military to its former status of underwriter of domestic peace and development? A third and very ‘Indian’ option of muddling through democracy exists of course, but is it desirable?

In a tightly connected world and given the significant parallels of history, geography, culture and majority-minority balances – in the last aspect, almost exact mirror opposites – India and Indonesia have strong mutual interests (and the required – if latent – empathy), to understand each other’s frustrations with democracy. While the bilateral dialogue on maritime security issues is now well-established, both India and Indonesia need to stop shying away from introducing sensitive domestic issues into the bilateral agenda for discussion. Prime Minister Modi raised the issue of corruption with President Jokowi during the latter’s recent visit to India, which is a good beginning. They should now go further and talk of inclusive governance, gender relations, poverty, federalism, electoral reforms, etc. And of secularism (and the respective interpretations of it), the most critical issue on which two young democracies (one less young than the other) will be tested.

* Navrekha Sharma
Former Ambassador of India to Indonesia

US President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to work with people of faith on many matters, and his goodwill is very much appreciated. Among the most pressing issues is the fate of religious exemptions to federal laws.

The Obama administration has waged war on religious institutions in many ways: it has sought to redefine Catholic institutions by forcing them to provide coverage for abortion-inducing drugs in their healthcare plans, and has denied funds to Catholic institutions that fight human trafficking (this was payback for opposing abortion). It has also sought to undo legislative provisions that are religion-friendly. Moreover, these attacks have inspired radical secularists to do likewise at the state level.

One of the many ways the Obama administration has sought to undermine religious organizations is to deny the kinds of religious exemptions that have traditionally been granted by previous administrations. Title IX of the 1972 Education Amendments is a case in point.

Title IX bars discrimination on the basis of sex in educational institutions that receive federal financial assistance. It explicitly exempts religious organizations. Until Obama took power in 2009, there were few, if any, problems with this provision. The most recent issue is the absence of the religious exemption afforded by Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare.

The problem is not the language of Title IX; rather, it is with the way the language has been twisted by LGBT activists and government lawyers. For example, the absence of a religious exemption to ObamaCare now means that Catholic non-profits are faced with having to pay for “gender transition services, hormonal treatments, counseling and a host of surgeries that would remove or transform the sexual organs of men or women transitioning to the other gender.” This is madness at any level, never mind forcing religious institutions to honor it.

Similar legislation almost passed in California in September, and attempts to intimidate religious institutions—forcing them to post exemptions from Title IX on their websites—is the subject of a bill introduced by Rep. Katherine Clark of Massachusetts.

Traditional Catholics, evangelicals, observant Jews, as well as many Mormons and Muslims, will be looking to the Trump administration to lock in religious exemptions provided by federal laws. Fortunately, Dr. Tom Price, who has been a strong advocate of religious freedom in Congress, will head the Department of Health and Human Services, the agency that has waged a relentless war on religious institutions.

The Catholic League strongly urges the Trump administration to undo the damage that the Obama administration has done to religious entities.