By Dalga Khatinoglu

Iran plans to increase its gas export by more than 7 times within the 2016-2020 timeframe.

Currently Iran exports about 8 billion cubic meters of gas per year (bcm/y) to Turkey and barters about 300-400 mcm of gas with Armenia, in exchange for electricity.

However, according to an official document, prepared by National Iranian Gas Company, Iran plans to increase the volume of gas exports to about 70 bcm/y by 2020.

The gas demand for power sector is expected to increase by only 15 bcm/y to around 70 bcm/y, while the industrial sector would double the gas consumption to above 80 bcm/y by 2020.

Iran’s housing sector which consumes about 40 percent of the country’s total commercial gas production, would increase the gas usage very slightly from about 95 bcm/y in 2016 to a little more than 100 bcm/y in 2020.

In total, the commercial gas production would increase from about 240 bcm/y in 2016 to around 340 bcm/y.

Political tensions associated with President Ouattara’s regime are putting efforts to build peace and security in the Ivory Coast at risk.

By Daniel Ozoukou*

The Ivory Coast has experienced ten years of political and military unrest. The 2010-2011 Ivorian crisis, or electoral dispute, was political in nature. Alassane Ouattara won the fight and established his government with the former head of the Patriotic Movement of Cote d’Ivoire (MPCI), Guillaume Soro. The new president was faced with implementing post-conflict policies that simultaneously addressed the aftermath of the crisis and accommodated former warlords and rebels.

Integrating former rebels

The former rebels are allies of President Ouattara and have been rewarded with top army and public administration positions. For example, they have been given commanding positions in the Ivoirian Republican Forces (FRCI). In the case of Issiaka Outtara, a former rebel leader commonly referred to as ‘Wattao’, he was promoted to deputy commander of the coordination center of operational decisions. Wattao was replaced in 2014 but remains as the deputy commander of the republican guards.

Similarly, Fofie Kouakou, who has been accused of serious human rights violations in Korhogo, was promoted to the rank of lieutenant colonel, despite UN sanctions. And other warlords of the Ivorian patriotic movement (MPCI) and the new forces (FN) have been rewarded with key positions in the army, exacerbating the fragility of the peace process.

But despite their reward of top jobs in the army and public administration, former rebels have used it as an opportunity to extend their predatory activities through cocoa, cotton and cashew smuggling, the control of gold mines and levying illegal taxes on trade transportation.

In 2015 UN investigators revealed illegal exploitation at the unlicensed gold mine of Gamina. Wattao, who has gained strong economic power from engaging in predatory activities, was considered the boss of that gold mine, and buyers sold gold exclusively to him. In 2014, a buyer who challenged Wattao by offering to buy from the miners at a higher price, was assassinated. During the rebellion years, Wattao was also in charge of ‘la central’, a treasury office responsible for collecting revenues, and Wattao is Guillaume Soro’s ‘man of confidence’.

It is clear that Wattao’s involvement in illegal economic activities benefits them both. More generally, the close proximity between former rebels and the Ouattara regime hinders its ability to fundamentally foster justice and hold former rebels accountable for their crimes. Former rebels, regardless of reintegration efforts that saw them promoted to top level army ranks, are therefore hindering essential disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) efforts in the country.

(Dis)armament

Disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR)  is a vital corner stone of post-conflict reconstruction and peacebuilding.

In 2012 President Ouattara launched a DDR programme and collected approximately 100,000 weapons, 400,000 rounds of ammunition and more than 2,000 grenades in three years. In spite of government efforts, the disarmament process was not a complete success, as many ex-combatants missed the call.

The government and its partners are still working on the programme, and hope to collect 3000 additional weapons by the end of 2017. The NGO West African Action Network on Small Arms Ivorian Coast section (WAANSA-IC) and the national commission fighting against the proliferation of small arms are combining efforts with the aim of obstructing the illegal detention of arms. In January 2016, WAANSSA-IC campaigned in the west of the country and collected 150 light weapons and 1650 rounds of ammunition. With financial support from Japan and in partnership with the UNDP they also initiated a project aimed at supporting those who handed over their weapons.

However, the country is now facing the illegal armament of former rebels. In April 2016 UN investigators said Guillaume Soro had “used the 2011 civil war and the aftermath as an opportunity to acquire hundreds of tonnes of weapons, which are now under the control of his loyalists in the army.”

Reuters listed 113,000 heavy machine guns and assault rifles and 2.8 million rounds of small ammunitions acquired as rebel weapons, which “outmatches the firepower of the entire FRCI”, or Ivorian armed forces. And these are clearly complicating DDR and hampering government efforts to build lasting peace and security.

Political instability

With the former rebel administrative and security networks so intertwined, there are further challenges for Ouattara. The parallel administrative and security networks established by the former rebel leader Guillaume Soro has created a crisis of confidence and generated suspicions.

The recent reorganisation of armed units across the country reveals the desire of Ouattara’s regime to overshadow and control Guillaume Soro’s strongmen in the army. This task will be difficult, as rebels are strongly rooted in armed units and have vowed allegiance to their former leader Soro.

It is clear that the honeymoon period between Ouattara and former rebels is slowly disintegrating. Guillaume Soro is being politically harassed. And with the adoption of the new constitution, the head of parliament will no longer succeed the president in the case of vacancy. This has created political polarisation and tension between former rebels and Ouattara’s regime.

The president’s desire to untie the ‘Gordian knot’ by gradually pushing his former allies away is risky. The invisible military force and the heavy weapons stockpiled by the parliament speaker threatens President Ouattara’s own regime, as well as regional peace and security.

*Daniel Ozoukou is a Political Analyst. He holds an MA in Languages and Humanities at University of Cocody (Ivory coast) and graduated from the Faculty of Law and Political Science University Nantes (France). He has published widely on peace, democracy and governance matters

An analysis of the Great Barrier Reef during a time prior to it becoming the modern shallow reef has found the World Heritage Listed ‘wonder’ almost drowned because of rapid sea-level rise from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets – with implications for conservation in an era of climate change.

The University of Sydney-led international research shows the Great Barrier Reef is resilient, with shallow reef growth recommencing once the rapid sea-level rise stabilised during the Last Interglacial period more than 125,000 years ago.

However a range of pressures on the modern reef – including pesticide run-off, warming sea temperatures and dredging from mining operations – combined with predicted sea-level rises could threaten the reef’s survival.

The research has been published in the peer-reviewed Global and Planetary Change.

Geologists consider the Last Interglacial to be an important comparative period because temperatures and sea levels were higher than now but similar to where the Earth might be headed if CO2 emissions remain unchecked.

Lead author Dr Belinda Dechnik from the Geocoastal Research Group in the School of Geosciences undertook the research – which included analysis of unexposed reef now up to 40 metres below sea-level – as part of her PhD.

“This provides the first snapshot of this paleo-reef against a background of rapid environmental change, including possible mass ice-sheet collapse,” Dr Dechnik said.

The research also provided an accurate identification of the age of the fossil reef that grew before the modern Great Barrier Reef, some 129,000-121,000 years ago.

“The Great Barrier Reef is like a sponge cake – the modern reef is just the last layer,” Dr Dechnik explained.

To study the ancient reef layer, researchers analysed specimens from the 1970s stored at Geosciences Australia in Canberra and in 2015 cored samples directly from the reef (the subject of an upcoming paper), which was made possible with an Australian Research Council grant as part of its Discovery Program.

University of Sydney Associate Professor Jody Webster, who supervised Dr Dechnik’s PhD, said the research was the most comprehensive investigation of this second-last layer; a novel finding was the climate-change impact.

“This stage of the reef appears to have come close to drowning and therefore almost died due to major environmental changes,” Associate Professor Webster said.

Dr Dechnik said it was expected that the rate of future sea-level rises resulting from climate change may not be as extreme as experienced previously but it could still be significant. In addition, it was expected that sea levels on the Great Barrier Reef could get as high as six metres – the same level as during the Last Interglacial – depending on the trajectory of mass ice sheet collapse.

“The findings highlight the importance of increasing the reef’s resilience now,” Dr Dechnik said.

“In combination with climate change predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in the absence of improvements to reef management and human impacts, sea-level pressures could tip the reef over the edge, potentially drowning it for good,” Dr Dechnik said.

Humans likely established permanent settlements on the high-altitude Tibetan Plateau between 13,000-7,400 years ago, according to new research published this week in the journal Science.

That conclusion challenges the previously held view that permanent human occupation of the Tibetan Plateau began no earlier than 5,200 years ago, after the advent of agriculture. The new finding is, however, consistent with research on the genetics of modern Tibetan Plateau people showing that they adapted genetically to the high-elevation environment beginning at least 8,000 years ago.

The research team includes Randy Haas, a postdoctoral research associate in the University of Wyoming’s Department of Anthropology. The group was led by Michael Meyer of the University of Innsbruck in Austria and Mark Aldenderfer of the University of California-Merced. The multinational team includes scholars from institutions in Austria, Germany, New Zealand and the United States.

The researchers conducted an extensive analysis of human handprints and footprints found in 1998 in fossilized hot spring mud near the village of Chusang on Tibet’s central plateau, at an elevation of 14,000 feet above sea level. Early analysis of the archaeological site indicated that the prints were made by people about 20,000 years ago, but the more thorough analysis dates them to at least 7,400 years ago, and possibly as early as 13,000 years ago. That still makes the Chusang site the oldest reliably dated archaeological site on the Tibetan Plateau.

While some have suggested that a human presence on the Tibetan Plateau at those early dates was only a result of short-term, seasonal movement from low-elevation base camps, the new research shows that it is much more likely that the handprints and footprints were made by permanent residents. Haas shows that the distance between lowland environments and the Chusang site would have required at least 230 miles of foot travel across the Himalayan arc — a path far too long and treacherous for temporary use of the site, and far greater than what has been documented among most historic hunter-gatherers.

The early Tibetan Plateau settlers managed to survive at high elevation at least 7,400 years ago, before the development of an agricultural economy between 5,200-3,600 years ago.

“Although an agropastoral lifeway may have enabled substantial population growth after 5,000 years, it by no means was required for the early, likely permanent, occupation of the high central valleys of the Tibetan Plateau,” the researchers wrote.

Haas said the research sheds new light on human colonization of high-elevation environments. For example, researchers have been puzzled by the striking differences in how Tibetans and Andean highlanders adapted physiologically to the rigors of life at high elevations.

“High-elevation environments (over 8,000 feet above sea level) were some of the last places in the world that humans colonized, and so they offer something of a natural laboratory for studying human adaptation,” Haas said. “Research on high-elevation populations around the world tells us that there were multiple adaptive pathways involving various combinations of physiological, genetic and cultural responses. Our findings clarify that genetic and cultural responses on the Tibetan Plateau played out over considerably longer time spans than previously thought.”

The deadly attacks on Border Guard Police (BGP) bases in Myanmar’s northern Rakhine State on October 9, 2016 and the days following, and a serious escalation on November 12 when a senior army officer was killed, signify the emergence of a new Muslim insurgency there, according to a report by the International Crisis Group.

According to the International Crisis Group, the current violence is qualitatively different from anything in recent decades, seriously threatens the prospects of stability and development in the state and has serious implications for Myanmar as a whole. The government faces a huge challenge in calibrating and integrating its political, policy and security responses to ensure that violence does not escalate and intercommunal tensions are kept under control. It requires also taking due account of the grievances and fears of Rakhine Buddhists, the International Crisis Group report says.

Failure to get this right would carry enormous risks. While the government has a clear duty to maintain security and take action against the attackers, it needs, if its response is to be effective, to make more judicious use of force and focus on a political and policy approach that addresses the sense of hopelessness and despair underlying the anger of many Muslims in Rakhine State. Complicating this is that Aung San Suu Kyi has some influence, but under the constitution no direct control over the military.

The insurgent group, which refers to itself as Harakah al-Yaqin (Faith Movement, HaY), is led by a committee of Rohingya émigrés in Saudi Arabia and is commanded on the ground by Rohingya with international training and experience in modern guerrilla war tactics. It benefits from the legitimacy provided by local and international fatwas (religious judicial opinions) in support of its cause and enjoys considerable sympathy and backing from Muslims in northern Rakhine State, including several hundred locally trained recruits.

The emergence of this well-organised, apparently well-funded group is a game-changer in the Myanmar government’s efforts to address the complex challenges in Rakhine State, which include longstanding discrimination against its Muslim population, denial of rights and lack of citizenship. The current use of disproportionate military force in response to the attacks, which fails to adequately distinguish militants from civilians, together with denial of humanitarian assistance to an extremely vulnerable population and the lack of an overarching political strategy that would offer them some hope for the future, is unlikely to dislodge the group and risks generating a spiral of violence and potential mass displacement.

HaY would not have been able to establish itself and make detailed preparations without the buy-in of some local leaders and communities. Yet, this has never been a radicalised population, and the majority of the community, its elders and religious leaders have previously eschewed violence as counterproductive. The fact that more people are now embracing violence reflects deep policy failures over many years rather than any sort of inevitability.

It is important for the government’s response to start from an appreciation of why a violent reaction from some Muslims in Rakhine State has emerged. The population has seen its rights progressively eroded, its gradual marginalisation from social and political life, and rights abuses. This has become particularly acute since the 2012 anti-Muslim violence in Rakhine. Disenfranchisement prior to the 2015 elections severed the last link with politics and means of influence. At the same time, the disruption of maritime migration routes to Malaysia closed a vital escape valve, particularly for young men whose only tangible hope for the future was dashed. An increasing sense of despair has driven more people to consider a violent response, but it is not too late for the government to reverse the trend.

It requires recognising first that these people have lived in the area for generations and will continue to do so. Ways must be found to give them a place in the nation’s life. A heavy-handed security response that fails to respect fundamental principles of proportionality and distinction is not only in violation of international norms; it is also deeply counterproductive. It will likely create further despair and animosity, increasing support for HaY and further entrenching violence. International experience strongly suggests that an aggressive military response, particularly if not embedded in a broader policy framework, will be ineffective against the armed group and has the potential to considerably aggravate matters.

So far, though there are indications of some training and solidarity, HaY does not appear to have a transnational jihadist or terrorist agenda. But there are risks that if the government mishandles the situation, including by continued use of disproportionate force that has driven tens of thousands from their homes or across the border to Bangladesh, it could create conditions for further radicalising sections of the Rohingya population that transnational jihadists could exploit to pursue their own agendas in the country. To avoid that requires subordinating the security response and integrating it into a well-crafted, overarching political strategy – building stronger, more positive relations between Muslim communities and the Myanmar state and closer cooperation and intelligence sharing with regional countries.

The entire report may be found here.

Ben and Casey Affleck and Leonardo DiCaprio are among the second round Golden Globe presenters announced by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association on Thursday morning.

Ben is a two-time Golden Globe Award winner and three-time award nominee. Casey is a two-time Golden Globe Award nominee and up for Best Actor for “Manchester by the Sea.” Leonardo DiCaprio, last year’s Best Actor winner for “The Revenant,” will also be presenting.

Other presenters added to Sunday’s show include: Kristen Bell, Annette Bening, Pierce Brosnan, Naomi Campbell, Jessica Chastain, Gal Gadot, Hugh Grant, Jon Hamm, Chris Hemsworth, Felicity Jones, John Legend, Ryan Reynolds, Sting, Emma Stone, Carrie Underwood, Vince Vaughn, Carl Weathers, and Kristen Wiig.

Details on which awards they will be presenting have not yet been announced.

They join previously announced presenters Drew Barrymore, Laura Dern, and Jeffrey Dean Morgan.

Barrymore is a three-time Golden Globe nominee, winning the Golden Globe Award for Best Actress – Miniseries or Television Film in 2009 for her portrayal of “Little” Edith Bouvier Beale in “Grey Gardens.”

Dern is a former Miss Golden Globe and been nominated for both her film and television work. She was a Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama nominee for 1992’s “Rambling Rose.” She is also a four-time television nominee, winning in three different decades: Best Actress – Miniseries or Television Film in 1993 for “Afterburn,” Best Supporting Actress – Miniseries or Television Film in 2009 for “Recount,” and most recently Best Actress – Television Series Musical or Comedy in 2012 for “Enlightened.”

Jeffrey Dean Morgan is best known for playing the bat-wielding bad guy Negan in “The Walking Dead.” The actor has yet to be nominated for a Golden Globe Award, but did win the Critics’ Choice Television Award for Best Guest Performer in a Drama Series in 2016 for his Negan role.

Other presenters announced first round: Steve Carrell, Priyanka Chopra, Matt Damon, Viola Davis, Goldie Hawn, Anna Kendick, Nicole Kidman, Brie Larson, Diego Luna, Sienna Miller, Mandy Moore, Timothy Olyphant, Chris Pine, Eddie Redmayne, Zoe Saldana, Amy Schumer, Sylvester Stallone, Justin Theroux, Milo Ventimiglia, Sophia Vergara, and Reese Witherspoon.

The 74th annual Golden Globes will air live on Sunday, Jan. 8, at 8 p.m. ET on NBC. The show will be hosted by Jimmy Fallon.

On Friday morning, president-elect Donald Trump called on the chairs of the House and Senate committees to open an investigation into how NBC obtained top secret intelligence before he was even briefed on it himself.

On Thursday afternoon, NBC reported on information from the intelligence report given to President Barack Obama on alleged Russian hacking. Trump himself was not scheduled to be briefed until the following day. The report, according unnamed officials who spoke to NBC, contained information that Russia had attempted to hack the White House, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Department of State, the 2008 and 2012 elections, and multiple US companies. The alleged election hack, according to NBC, was done as “payback” for Obama questioning Vladimir Putin’s legitimacy as the Russian president.

NBC also reported that the US has also identified “Russian actors” who allegedly gave hacked materials to Wikileaks.

After the report aired, the president-elect took to Twitter to question how the news agency got their hands on the report. “How did NBC get ‘an exclusive look into the top secret report he (Obama) was presented?’ Who gave them this report and why? Politics!” Trump tweeted. The following morning, NBC published another story saying that an unnamed senior U.S. intelligence official with direct knowledge of the report leaked more details to them, specifically that top Russian officials celebrated Trump’s win. Trump then took to Twitter once again, calling for an investigation into intelligence being leaked to the network.

“I am asking the chairs of the House and Senate committees to investigate top secret intelligence shared with NBC prior to me seeing it,” Trump tweeted.

The tweet was then retweeted by Wikileaks, who added: “President-elect Trump on the authorized #PseudoLeak by the Obama administration of TOP SECRET//COMINT claims to NBC.”

The Amsterdam media played a major role in the rise and fall of Dutch Brazil, the colony held briefly by the Dutch West India Company in the 17th century. This is the conclusion reached by Professor of Maritime History Michiel van Groesen in his book ‘Amsterdam’s Atlantic’.

Few Dutch people know that from 1630 to 1654 Brazil was a Dutch colony even though in the Golden Age events in Brazil were for years front-page news for the period’s many newspapers and pamphlets. This is the conclusion reached by Van Groesen based on his research on how contemporary media reported on the colony.

Europe’s media capital

Amsterdam at that time was Europe’s media capital because of the city’s relatively high level of press freedom. Newspapers were published weekly and there were also many pamphlets in circulation in the city. The Amsterdam media had significant influence on public opinion not only in the Netherlands but also in the rest of Europe where Dutch reports were translated into local languages.

Initially, the papers wrote enthusiastically about the conflict in the New World. In the seventeenth century the Dutch Republic was at war with Spain, and in 1624 decided to launch a second front in Brazil, a Portuguese colony under Spanish rule. There were positive reports in the media about the many opportunities in the region: for the trade in sugar, for example, and as a means of expanding geopolitical influence.

Opinion makers were under the influence of Amsterdam regents and merchants, who were originally positive, according to Van Groesen. But the newspapers quickly turned their attention to issues that the elite preferred to keep under wraps: battles lost and corruption in the colony being two such issues.

Surprisingly enough, the slave trade was paid little attention by the media. The West India Company used African slaves for work in the colony.

Public opinion reversed

Brazil never came completely under Dutch control, which meant that money and troops had to be sent repeatedly to the colony. The media began to include critical reports of Amsterdam regents who were skeptical about the situation, unlike the regents in Zeeland who were more favorably disposed towards Brazil.

Under the influence of the media, public opinion turned slowly but surely against the money-guzzling colony.

The propaganda bulletins from the WIC were ineffective in turning the tide of public opinion. Van Groesen also examined the correspondence of politicians and merchants of the period. Amsterdam merchants, too, began to oppose the monopoly enjoyed by the WIC, and consequently withdrew their support.

‘Brazil was neglected’

When in 1645 the Portuguese were threatening to drive the Dutch out of Brazil, the Amsterdam regents blocked a proposal to send a fleet to the region.

In 1654 the Portuguese managed to expel the Dutch completely and returned the colony to Portuguese rule. This loss was felt for a long time as a ‘national disgrace’, according to Van Groesen. Those who had wanted to retain Brazil talked about a ‘Neglected Brazil’.

“People no longer wanted to talk about this scandal, which explains why so few Dutch people today know that Brazil was ever a Dutch colony.”

A real-life zombie outbreak would leave the world’s population in shambles, with less than 300 survivors remaining a mere one hundred days into the apocalypse, according to students from the University of Leicester.

Assuming that a zombie can find one person each day, with a 90 percent chance of infecting victims with the zombie infection, the students from the University of Leicester Department of Physics and Astronomy suggest that by day one hundred there be just 273 remaining human survivors, outnumbered a million to one by zombies.

The students presented their findings in a series of short articles for the Journal of Physics Special Topics, a peer-reviewed student journal run by the University’s Department of Physics and Astronomy. The student-run journal is designed to give students practical experience of writing, editing, publishing and reviewing scientific papers.

The student team investigated the spread of a hypothetical zombie virus using the SIR model – an epidemiological model that describes the spread of a disease throughout a population.

The model splits the population into three categories – those susceptible to the infection, those that are infected and those that have either died or recovered. The SIR model then considers the rates at which infections spread and die off as individuals in the population come into contact with each other.

As part of the formula, the students looked at S (the susceptible population), Z (the zombie population) and D (the dead population), suggesting that the average lifespan of a zombie would be S to Z to D.

They also examined the time frame over which individuals in the population encounter one another.

The initial study did not factor in natural birth and death rates, since the hypothetical epidemic took place over 100 days, resulting in natural births and deaths being negligible compared to the impact of the zombie virus over a short time frame.

Without the ability for humankind to fight back against the undead hordes, the students’ calculations suggest that if global populations were equally distributed in less than a year the human race might be wiped out.

However, in a more hopeful follow-up study, the students investigated the SIR model applied to a zombie epidemic and introduced new parameters, such as the rate in which zombies might be killed and people having children within the nightmare scenario. This made human survival more feasible.

The team factored in how over time survivors may also be less likely to become infected after having experience of avoiding or fending off zombies.

They found that it would be possible for the world’s human population to survive the zombie epidemic under these conditions – and that eventually the zombie population would be wiped out and the human population would recover.

Course tutor, Dr Mervyn Roy, a lecturer in the University of Leicester’s Department of Physics and Astronomy, said: “Every year we ask students to write short papers for the Journal of Physics Special Topics. It lets the students show off their creative side and apply some of physics they know to the weird, the wonderful, or the everyday.”

Republicans are preparing to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and have promised to replace it with something that doesn’t leave more than 20 million Americans stranded without health insurance.

Yet they haven’t come up with a replacement. And they won’t, for three reasons.

First, Republicans say they want the replacement to be “market-based.” But Obamacare is already market based – relying on private, for profit health insurers.

That’s already a problem. The biggest health insurers – Anthem, Aetna, Humana, Cigna, and United Health – are so big they can get the deals they want from the government by threatening to drop out of any insurance system Republicans come up with. Several have already dropped out of Obamacare.

Even now they’re trying to merge into far bigger behemoths that will be able to extort even better terms from the Republicans.

Second, every part of Obamacare depends on every other part. Trump says he’d like to continue to bar insurers from denying coverage to individuals with preexisting conditions.

But this popular provision depends on healthy people being required to pay into the insurance pool, a mandate that Republicans vow to eliminate.

The GOP also wants to keep overall costs down, but they haven’t indicated how. More than 80 percent of Americans who buy health insurance through Obamacare receive federal subsidies. Yet Republicans have no plan for raising the necessary sums.

Which gets us to the third big reason Republicans can’t come up with a replacement. Revoking the tax increases in Obamacare – a key part of the repeal – would make it impossible to finance these subsidies.

The two biggest of these taxes  – a 3.8-percentage-point surtax on dividends, interest and other unearned income; and a 0.9-percentage-point increase in the payroll tax that helps fund Medicare – are also the most progressive. They apply only to people earning more than $200,000 per year.

Immediately repealing these taxes, as the GOP says it intends to do, will put an average of $33,000 in the hands of the richest 1 percent this year alone, and a whopping $197,000 into the hands of the top 0.1 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center.

It would also increase the taxes of families earning between $10,000 and $75,000 – including just about all of Trump’s working class voters.

Worse yet, eliminating the payroll tax increase immediately pushes Medicare’s hospital fund back toward the insolvency that was looming before Obamacare became law.

Ultimately, the only practical answer to these three dilemmas is Medicare for all – a single payer system. But Republicans would never go for it.

So without Obamacare, Republicans are left with nothing. Zilch. Nada.

Except the prospect of more than 20 million people losing their health insurance, and a huge redistribution from the working class to the very rich.

By Jordan Bazak*

Last week was a rough one for the Argentine social activist and community organizer Milagro Sala. Two separate courts convicted the head of the Tupac Amaru Neighborhood Organization for crimes related to her protest activities. Although neither sentence included mandated jail time, Sala, who has been detained since last January, will have to remain behind bars pending the investigation of more serious allegations against her. Nevertheless, several human rights groups have questioned the court’s assessment that Sala’s release at this time would interfere with investigations and have labeled her continued imprisonment as arbitrary.

On Wednesday, a federal court in Jujuy, Argentina’s most northwest province, found the indigenous Qulla leader, and two other Tupac Amaru members, guilty of “aggravated material damages.”[i] The charges relate to a 2009 riot that targeted the then-senator and now provincial governor Gerardo Morales, Sala’s primary political opponent. In October of that year, Morales was set to participate in a press conference concerning the Tupac Amaru’s disbursement of federal funds, when a violent mob roughed-up the Jujuy Professional Council of Economic Sciences, where the conference was to take place.[ii] Morales promptly accused Sala and her organization for the attack, a claim the activist indignantly denied, instead pinning responsibility on the Jujuy Peasant’s Movement.[iii]

Last December 15, over seven years after the incident, the trial began.[iv] Despite evidence that the Tupac Amaru chief did not participate in the riot herself, testimony indicated that she had encouraged violent acts against Morales.[v] As a result, the neighborhood organizer was sentenced to a three-year prison term. However, as a first-time offender receiving a sentence of three-years or less, Sala’s punishment was automatically commuted to parole with community service. Two fellow Tupac Amaru officials, Graciela López and Ramón Salvatierra, were handed similar punishments.

Thursday, Sala’s legal woes continued when another local court found her guilty of “occupation of a public space, alteration of order, and obstruction of vehicular and pedestrian traffic.”[vi] The occupation refers to a 52-day encampment in San Salvador de Jujuy, the provincial capital, in protest of Morales’ new civil society regulations. These conditioned an organization’s government funding on the identification of all personnel and using state bank accounts to conduct financial transactions.[vii] On account of the protest, Sala was arrested in mid-January for “instigating criminal activity and disorder,” charges that were later dropped.[viii] The occupation in Jujuy was lifted on February 2.[ix] Last Thursday’s sentence prevents Sala from holding office in any civil organization and fines her $3,780 pesos ($235 USD), the highest fine that the court can impose in such cases.[x]

Sala will remain in prison despite not receiving a jail sentence. Since her detainment, Jujuy’s judiciary has opened up investigations into a series of other crimes, which include fraud, extortion, embezzlement, assault, and even kidnapping.[xi] Without filing specific charges, Jujuy prosecutors claim that releasing Sala would inhibit their ability to investigate these other accusations.[xii] The leader’s imprisonment has drawn heavy condemnation from the United Nation’s Working Group on Arbitrary Detention and numerous human rights bodies, which have argued that the judicial authorities have not provided sufficient evidence to prove that Sala’s release would undermine their investigations.[xiii]

Over the past 20 years, the Tupac Amaru Neighborhood Organization has provided thousands of Jujeños with housing, education, and health care. At the same time, the grass-root organization has evolved into a powerful entity that uses social projects to win over political loyalty.[xiv] During the Kirchner Administration, Tupac Amaru received billions of pesos in federal subsidies to fund its various building projects. But a shortfall in the number of housing units constructed has left critics questioning where over 700 million pesos have gone.[xv] The alleged mishandling of these funds remains Sala’s largest legal problem.

The imprisonment of La Gobernadora, as Sala is known due to her politcal power throughout the province, remains a thorn in President Macri’s side as he begins his second year in office. The president continues to face international pressure for her prompt release from UN investigators who are scheduled to visit the country this spring. However, Governor Morales’ party, the Radical Civic Union, has become a vital part of the Macri’s Cambiemos coalition. The reintegration of the CGT, Argentina’s largest labor confederation, and the recent working alliance between Sergio Massa’s Union of the Democratic Center and Cristina Kirchner’s Justice Party demonstrate an increasingly united opposition to the current administration. With disappointing economic growth eroding his public support, the president will have to avoid undermining political allies, even ones with a loose relationship to the Rule of Law. Needless to say, Milagro Sala should not expect the same help from Macri in her legal battles as she received from the Kirchners to fund her organization’s social programs.

*Jordan Bazak, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

[i] “Condenan a Milagro Sala a tres años de prisión en suspenso por daños,” La Nación, December 28, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1970992-milagro-sala-sentencia-escrache-morales

[ii] “Piqueteros kirchneristas agredieron al senador Morales,” La Nación, October 17, 2009. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1187470-piqueteros-kirchneristas-agredieron-al-senador-morales

[iii] Lucrecia Bullrich, “La piquetera señalada por el ataque a Morales admitió que recibe fondos del Gobierno y cuestionó al senador,” La Nación, October 20, 2009. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1188205-la-piquetera-senalada-por-el-ataque-a-morales-admitio-que-recibe-fondos-del-gobierno-y-cuestiono-al-senador

[iv] Demian Bio, “Day 1 Of Trial: Sala ‘Apologizes’ To Governor For Being ‘Black And Indigenous,’” The Bubble, December 15, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.thebubble.com/day-1-of-trial-sala-apologizes-to-governor-for-being-black-and-indigenous/

[v] Demian Bio, “Milagro Sala Sentenced To Three Years For ‘Aggravated Damage’” The Bubble, December 29, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.thebubble.com/day-1-of-trial-sala-apologizes-to-governor-for-being-black-and-indigenous/

[vi] “Condenaron a Milagro Sala por el acampe en Jujuy,” La Nación, December 29, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1971606-condenaron-a-milagro-sala-por-el-acampe-en-jujuy

[vii] “Tensión en Jujuy: la Tupac bloquea la Casa de Gobierno provincial,” Clarín, December 16, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.clarin.com/politica/tension-jujuy-tupac-casa-gobierno_0_SJMMGyKPXe.html

[viii] Demian Bio, “The Controversy Over Milagro Sala, Explained” The Bubble, February 2, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.thebubble.com/milagro-sala-controversy-explained/

[ix] “Jujuy: levantan el acampe por Milagro Sala para abrir una “instancia de diálogo,” Clarín, February 2, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.clarin.com/politica/jujuy-levantan-milagro-sala-instancia_0_4keRbpKKx.html

[x] Ramiro Barreiro, “Doble condena contra una militante kirchnerista detenida desde enero,” El País (Madrid), December 29, 2016. Accessed December 30 2016. http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2016/12/29/argentina/1483041510_495790.html

[xi] Ibid.

[xii] Demian Bio, “Milagro Sala Sentenced To Three Years For ‘Aggravated Damage’” The Bubble, December 29, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.thebubble.com/day-1-of-trial-sala-apologizes-to-governor-for-being-black-and-indigenous/

[xiii] José Miguel Vivanco, “Letter to President Macri on the Sala case,” Human Rights Watch, December 22, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/12/22/letter-president-macri-sala-case

[xiv] Joseph Green, “Macri Fails to Balance History, Public Opinion in Argentina’s Security Overhaul,” Council on Hemispheric Affairs, August 11, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.coha.org/macri-fails-to-balance-history-public-opinion-in-argentinas-security-overhaul/

[xv] Lucrecia Bullrich, “Sala desvió fondos por $ 700 millones que recibió para construir viviendas,” April 18, 2016. Accessed December 30, 2016. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1890293-sala-desvio-fondos-por-700-millones-que-recibio-para-construir-viviendas

If you’ve overindulged during the festive period and you’re digestive system feels a bit worse for wear, then be encouraged by the fact that Irish researchers have discovered an entirely new digestive organ called the mesentery, opening up an entirely new field of medical science.

The mesentery, as described by researchers at the University of Limerick, was once thought to be a ‘fragmented structure made up of multiple separate parts’ but they have now concluded that it is actually a single, previously unrecognised organ. The research has now been published in the journal ‘Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology’.

“During the initial research, we noticed in particular that the mesentery, which connects the gut to the body, was one continuous organ,” commented J. Calvin Coffey, a surgeon at the University of Limerick who conducted the research. “Up to then it was regarded as fragmented, present here, absent elsewhere and a very complex structure. The anatomic description that had been laid down over 100 years of anatomy was incorrect. This organ is far from fragmented and complex. It is simply one continuous structure.”

So what does the mesentery actually do? The jury is still out, but even though it has only now been identified as an organ, scientists have been aware of its existence for centuries, with even Leonardo da Vinci drawing it. In short, the mesentery is a double fold of peritoneum (the lining of the abdominal cavity) that attaches our intestine to the wall of our abdomen, thus keeping everything locked into place. Other than this, it was seen to be a pretty unimportant and unremarkable part of our anatomy.

The Limerick researchers first discovered that the mesentery was actually a continuous structure in 2012, when they undertook detailed microscopic examinations. Over the past 4 years, they have gathered further evidence that the mesentery should actually be classified as its own distinct organ.

The Limerick team’s research has even pushed ‘Gray’s Anatomy’, the world famous medical textbook, to add an update reflecting the mesentery’s new status as a unique organ, according to the university. Medical students are also now being taught that the mesentery is a distinct organ.

It is now hoped that the reclassification of the mesentery will lead to pioneering research that could help open up an entirely new area of medical science and improve disease outcomes with regards to abdominal and digestive diseases.

“Now we have established anatomy and the structure. The next step is the function. If you understand the function you can identify abnormal function, and then you have disease. Put them all together and you have the field of mesenteric science … the basis for a whole new area of science,” said Coffey.

So there you go, the mesentery has been hiding within us all this time. Expect further details in the coming months/years as scientists now work to unlock all of its secrets that could potentially help thousands of patients suffering from crippling digestive disorders.

Cordis Source: Based on media reports

A new way to treat common surgical masks so they are capable of trapping and killing airborne viruses has been developed by a  University of Alberta engineering researcher. His research findings appear in the prestigious journal Scientific Reports, published by Nature Publishing Group.

Hyo-Jick Choi, a professor in the University of Alberta Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering, noticed that many people wear a simple surgical-style mask for protection during outbreaks of influenza or other potentially deadly viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) or Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).

Trouble is, the masks weren’t designed to prevent the spread of viruses.

“Surgical masks were originally designed to protect the wearer from infectious droplets in clinical settings, but it doesn’t help much to prevent the spread of respiratory diseases such as SARS or MERS or influenza,” said Choi.

Airborne pathogens like influenza are transmitted in aerosol droplets when we cough or sneeze. The masks may well trap the virus-laden droplets but the virus is still infectious on the mask. Merely handling the mask opens up new avenues for infection. Even respirators designed to protect individuals from viral aerosols have the same shortcoming–viruses trapped in respirators still pose risks for infection and transmission.

Masks capable of killing viruses would save lives, especially in an epidemic or pandemic situation. During the 2014-2015 season nearly 8,000 Canadians were hospitalized with the flu. That same year, deaths related to influenza in Canada reached an all-time high of nearly 600.

Knowing that the masks are inexpensive and commonly used, Choi and his research team went about exploring ways to improve the mask’s filter. And this is where a problem he is struggling with in one field of research–the development of oral vaccines like a pill or a lozenge–became a solution in another area.

A major hurdle in the development of oral vaccines is that when liquid solutions dry, crystals form and destroy the virus used in vaccines, rendering the treatment useless. In a nifty bit of engineering judo, Choi flipped the problem on its head and turned crystallization into a bug buster, using it as a tool to kill active viruses.

Choi and his team developed a salt formulation and applied it to the filters, in the hope that salt crystals would “deactivate” the influenza virus.

The mechanics of simple chemistry make the treatment work. When an aerosol droplet carrying the influenza virus contacts the treated filter, the droplet absorbs salt on the filter. The virus is exposed to continually increasing concentrations of salt. As the droplet evaporates, the virus suffers fatal physical damage when the salt returns to its crystalized state.

While developing solid vaccines, Choi observed that sugar used for stabilizing the vaccine during the drying process crystalizes as it dries out. When crystals form, sharp edges and spikes take shape and they physically destroy the virus vaccine.

“We realized that we could use that to our advantage to improve surgical masks,” said Choi.

In a series of experiments and tests at the University of Alberta and in the Department of Medical Zoology at the Kyung Hee University School of Medicine in Seoul, South Korea, the team arrived at a perfect treatment that improves the efficacy of the fibre filter inside the masks.

By using a safe substance (table salt) to improve an existing, approved product, Choi sees very few roadblocks to implementing the innovation.

The research was funded by the University of Alberta. Choi has been awarded a provisional patent for the development of virus deactivation systems based on the salt-crystallization mechanism.

For more than a decade, Celina Kleer, M.D., has been studying how a poorly understood protein called CCN6 affects breast cancer. To learn more about its role in breast cancer development, Kleer’s lab designed a special mouse model – which led to something unexpected.

They deleted CCN6 from the mammary gland in the mice. This type of model allows researchers to study effects specific to the loss of the protein. As Kleer and her team checked in at different ages, they found delayed development and mammary glands that did not develop properly.

“After a year, the mice started to form mammary gland tumors. These tumors looked identical to human metaplastic breast cancer, with the same characteristics. That was very exciting,” said Kleer, Harold A. Oberman Collegiate Professor of Pathology and director of the Breast Pathology Program at the University of Michigan Comprehensive Cancer Center.

Metaplastic breast cancer is a very rare and aggressive subtype of triple-negative breast cancer – a type considered rare and aggressive of its own. Up to 20 percent of all breast cancers are triple-negative. Only 1 percent are metaplastic.

“Metaplastic breast cancers are challenging to diagnose and treat. In part, the difficulties stem from the lack of mouse models to study this disease,” Kleer said.

So not only did Kleer gain a better understanding of CCN6, but her lab’s findings open the door to a better understanding of this very challenging subtype of breast cancer. The study is published in Oncogene.

“Our hypothesis, based on years of experiments in our lab, was that knocking out this gene would induce breast cancer. But we didn’t know if knocking out CCN6 would be enough to unleash tumors, and if so, when, or what kind,” Kleer said. “Now we have a new mouse model, and a new way of studying metaplastic carcinomas, for which there’s no other model.”

One of the hallmarks of metaplastic breast cancer is that the cells are more mesenchymal, a cell state that enables them to move and invade. Likewise, researchers saw this in their mouse model: knocking down CCN6 induced the process known as the epithelial to mesenchymal transition.

“This process is hard to see in tumors under a microscope. It’s exciting that we see this in the mouse model as well as in patient samples and cell lines,” Kleer said.

The researchers looked at the tumors developed by mice in their new model and identified several potential genes to target with therapeutics. Some of the options, such as p38, already have antibodies or inhibitors against them.

The team’s next steps will be to test these potential therapeutics in the lab, in combination with existing chemotherapies. They will also use the mouse model to gain a better understanding of metaplastic breast cancer and discover new genes that play a role it its development.

“Understanding the disease may lead us to better ways to attack it,” Kleer said. “For patients with metaplastic breast cancer, it doesn’t matter that it’s rare. They want – and they deserve – better treatments.”

Interstellar forecast for a nearby star: Raining comets! NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope has discovered comets plunging onto the star HD 172555, which is a youthful 23 million years old and resides 95 light-years from Earth.

The exocomets — comets outside our solar system — were not directly seen around the star, but their presence was inferred by detecting gas that is likely the vaporized remnants of their icy nuclei.

HD 172555 represents the third extrasolar system where astronomers have detected doomed, wayward comets. All of the systems are young, under 40 million years old.

The presence of these doomed comets provides circumstantial evidence for “gravitational stirring” by an unseen Jupiter-size planet, where comets deflected by its gravity are catapulted into the star. These events also provide new insights into the past and present activity of comets in our solar system. It’s a mechanism where infalling comets could have transported water to Earth and the other inner planets of our solar system.

Astronomers have found similar plunges in our own solar system. Sun-grazing comets routinely fall into our sun.

“Seeing these sun-grazing comets in our solar system and in three extrasolar systems means that this activity may be common in young star systems,” said study leader Carol Grady of Eureka Scientific Inc. in Oakland, California, and NASA’s Goddard Spaceflight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “This activity at its peak represents a star’s active teenage years. Watching these events gives us insight into what probably went on in the early days of our solar system, when comets were pelting the inner solar system bodies, including Earth. In fact, these star-grazing comets may make life possible, because they carry water and other life-forming elements, such as carbon, to terrestrial planets.”

Grady will present her team’s results Jan. 6 at the winter meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Grapevine, Texas.

The star is part of the Beta Pictoris Moving Group, a collection of stars born from the same stellar nursery. It is the second group member found to harbor such comets. Beta Pictoris, the group’s namesake, also is feasting on exocomets travelling too close. A young gas-giant planet has been observed in that star’s vast debris disk.

The stellar group is important to study because it is the closest collection of young stars to Earth. At least 37.5 percent of the more massive stars in the Beta Pictoris Moving Group either have a directly imaged planet, such as 51 Eridani b in the 51 Eridani system, or infalling star-grazing bodies, or, in the case of Beta Pictoris, both types of objects. The grouping is at about the age that it should be building terrestrial planets, Grady said.

A team of French astronomers first discovered exocomets transiting HD 172555 in archival data gathered between 2004 and 2011 by the European Southern Observatory’s HARPS (High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher) planet-finding spectrograph. A spectrograph divides light into its component colors, allowing astronomers to detect an object’s chemical makeup. The HARPS spectrograph detected the chemical fingerprints of calcium imprinted in the starlight, evidence that comet-like objects were falling into the star.

As a follow-up to that discovery, Grady’s team used Hubble’s Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) and the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) in 2015 to conduct a spectrographic analysis in ultraviolet light, which allows Hubble to identify the signature of certain elements. Hubble made two observations, separated by six days.

Hubble detected silicon and carbon gas in the starlight. The gas was moving at about 360,000 miles per hour across the face of the star. The most likely explanation for the speedy gas is that Hubble is seeing material from comet-like objects that broke apart after streaking across the face of the star.

The gaseous debris from the disintegrating comets is vastly dispersed in front of the star. “As transiting features go, this vaporized material is easy to see because it contains very large structures,” Grady said. “This is in marked contrast to trying to find a small transiting exoplanet, where you’re looking for tiny dips in the star’s light.”

Hubble gleaned this information because the HD 172555 debris disk surrounding the star is slightly inclined to Hubble’s line of sight, giving the telescope a clear view of comet activity.

Grady’s team hopes to use STIS again in follow-up observations to look for oxygen and hydrogen, which would confirm the identity of the disintegrating objects as comets.

“Hubble shows that these star-grazers look and move like comets, but until we determine their composition, we cannot confirm they are comets,” Grady said. “We need additional data to establish whether our star-grazers are icy like comets or more rocky like asteroids.”

Scientists have confirmed that Miscanthus, long speculated to be the top biofuel producer, yields more than twice as much as switchgrass in the U.S. using an open-source bioenergy crop database gaining traction in plant science, climate change, and ecology research.

“To understand yield trends and variation across the country for our major food crops, extensive databases are available–notably those provided by the USDA Statistical Service,” said lead author Stephen Long, Gutgsell Endowed Professor of Plant Biology and Crop Sciences at the University of Illinois. “But there was nowhere to go if you wanted to know about biomass crops, particularly those that have no food value such as Miscanthus, switchgrass, willow trees, etc.”

To fill this gap, researchers at the Energy Biosciences Institute at the Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology created BETYdb, an open-source repository for physiological and yield data that facilitates bioenergy research. The goal of this database is not only to store the data but to make the data widely available and usable.

“In addition to providing an easy-to-use, web-based interface, the database supports automated data collection and big data analysis,” said first author David LeBauer, a research scientist at Illinois. “Today the BETYdb database contains more than 40,000 open-access records.By making all of this data open access, we hope that researchers can identify new plants and best practices for biomass production. We’ve been using these data not only to summarize what has been observed in field trials, but also to identify new crops and predict productivity in new environments.”

To demonstrate the database’s value, researchers used BETYdb to definitively establish that Miscanthus is 2.4 times more productive than Switchgrass in the U.S. under a wide range of environmental and management conditions (e.g. fertilization rates, stand ages, planting densities), as reported in Global Change Biology Bioenergy.

“More than a decade of studies suggested that regardless of temperature, water or nitrogen Miscanthus, then grown only in Europe, would out yield the North American favorite switchgrass by more than two-fold,” Long said. “This was based on limited data and did not take into account the breeding improvements in switchgrass that were occurring. Now that Miscanthus is grown in North America along with many improved cultivars of switchgrass we wondered: does the remarkable two-fold difference in yield still hold? And it does.”

Supporters of Pakistan’s strict blasphemy law attempted to march in Lahore on Wednesday, but were thwarted when police made more than 150 arrests.

The nation’s blasphemy laws impose strict punishment on those who desecrate the Quran or who defame or insult Muhammad.

The Jan. 4 demonstrations would have fallen on the sixth anniversary of the 2011 assassination of Punjab governor Salmaan Taseer, a prominent advocate of changing the strict blasphemy law. He was killed by his own security guard, Mumtaz Qadri, for his stance on the law.

Some backers of the strict anti-blasphemy law consider Qadri a hero.

Protesters from several religious parties had planned the march in the capital of Punjab province. The arrested were members of the Islamist coalition Tehreek-i-Labaik Ya Rasool Allah.

Authorities said that more arrests would be made and no one had permission to hold a rally in Lahore, the Pakistani newspaper Dawn reports.

Police barricades set up to prevent the march caused severe traffic jams.

Other protests had been planned in Rawalpindi.

Taseer’s assassination was followed by the March 2, 2011 assassination of Shahbaz Bhatti, another critic of the misuse of the blasphemy law.

Bhatti, a Catholic and the only Christian in the Pakistani cabinet, worked as the federal minister for minorities and spoke out against religious persecution.

A Pakistani Catholic diocese has opened an inquiry into whether to declare him a martyr.

Pakistan’s state religion is Islam, and around 97 percent of the population is Muslim.

The blasphemy laws are said to be often used to settle scores or to persecute religious minorities: though non-Muslims constitute only three percent of the Pakistani population, 14 percent of blasphemy cases have been levied against them.

Many of those accused of blasphemy are murdered, and advocates of changing the law, such as Taseer, are targeted by violence.

Papuan rights groups have called on the Indonesian government to release six activists who remain in detention following a protest in December.

Hundreds of people marched in several Papuan cities, including Wamena, Nabire, Merauke and Jayapura on Dec. 19.

The protest was staged to mark the anniversary of a 1961 edict issued by then President Sukarno that called for the immediate annexation of Papua.

The protest ended with the arrest of 463 people, Agus Kossay, chairman of the West Papua National Committee told ucanews.com.

Six people remain in custody charged with treason and inciting hatred, which carry a penalty of 20 years in prison.

“We call for their immediate release,” said Kossay.

Gustaf Kawer, a human rights lawyer said authorities often use treason charges to oppress Papuans seeking greater autonomy or independence.

The protest was not an act of treason because people were expressing anger at a government mistake made long ago.

Papua police spokesman Ahmad Mustofa Kamal said the authorities had evidence proving the activists were plotting treason.

He said investigators had confiscated rally plans, banners, and recorded speeches during the protest.

“These confirm a treason plot by the activists,” Kamal said without elaborating.

Russia’s Gazprom said on Saturday its daily supplies of natural gas to countries outside of the former Soviet Union have reached a record high due to cold weather in Europe, Reuters reported.

Gazprom pumped 615.5 million cubic metres of gas to countries outside the former USSR borders on Jan. 6, beating its previous record hit on Jan. 5 by nearly 1 million cubic metres.

“We have reached a totally new level of gas exports in conditions of a cold snap, lower extraction volumes in Europe and higher demand for gas on the energy market,” Gazprom’s CEO Alexei Miller said in a statement.

Gazprom delivers around a third of EU’s gas, and the recent spike in European demand boosted Gazprom’s supplies through Nord Stream pipeline to an all-time high of 165.2 million cubic metres in the past few days, up from 160.75 million cubic metres on Jan. 1., Gazprom said.

The current volumes of gas supply, if extrapolated throughout the year, exceed the Nord Stream’s projected volumes by 10 percent, Miller said.

By Michael Lelyveld

“Stability” has become the official watchword for China’s economy, but the government has yet to define what it means.

The government says it achieved stability in the economy in 2016 and will maintain it this year, despite bouts of currency depreciation and forecasts of slower economic growth.

Stability and stabilization have become mantras for policy makers, recited repeatedly in the official press.

“In a world economy beset with increasing instabilities and sluggish recovery, China has stuck to its new development concept and the basic tone of making progress while maintaining stability,” President Xi Jinping was quoted as saying after a Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting on Dec. 9.

“China … made stability as the basic tone for next year’s economic planning,” the official Xinhua news agency reported, summing up the government’s annual Economic Work Conference chaired by Premier Li Keqiang on Dec. 16.

“As the Chinese economy maintains medium-high growth, the [yuan] renminbi has the conditions to remain relatively stable,” the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Dec. 13, according to Xinhua.

But the government has offered few if any specifics about how it will measure stability or determine when stabilization has been achieved.

The meaning of stability

Does stability mean that gross domestic product growth rates will stay constant, stop falling, decline only slightly or perhaps resume higher levels?

Does it mean that the yuan renminbi (RMB) will halt its decline against the U.S. dollar, or only drop less than it did last year?

Will China try to slow last year’s surge of capital outflows, or simply keep them from increasing?

So far, nobody knows.

One major problem in assessing what the government means by stabilization is that it has rarely if ever reported that the economy was anything other than stable.

“None of these terms that make sense in other countries make any sense in China because they don’t ever officially acknowledge the need for stabilization,” said Derek Scissors, an Asia economist and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Last week in a year-end summary, Xinhua came close to conceding that the government faced serious economic trouble last year.

“China’s capital market fluctuations at the start of 2016 signaled it was going to be a tough year,” Xinhua said.

“However, despite the rocky start, the economy is ending the year on a firm footing, and this year’s growth target will be met,” it said.

China’s claims that it achieved economic stability last year are backed by official GDP figures showing consistent 6.7-percent growth in all of the first three quarters.

While the rate was down from the 2015 pace of 6.9 percent, it landed within the government’s target range of 6.5 to 7 percent.

Exaggerated figures

Most economists view the official GDP figures as exaggerations, useful only to indicate relative rates of growth.

Scissors estimates that actual GDP quarterly growth rates since mid-2015 may have fallen as low as three percent and have now risen to the “upper fours.”

A forecast by the international bank Standard Chartered estimated a mild speedup in the fourth quarter with stronger service sector performance, giving the economy a growth rate of 6.8 percent for 2016, the official English-language China Daily reported.

If that is the case, it would suggest a recovery from the growth slowdown, although the government has been careful to avoid using the word.

Any claim of recovery would raise the question: “Recover from what?”

Instead, the government has settled on “stability” and “stabilization” as preferred terms for China’s economic condition, but even these may spur misgivings.

“This is an admission on their part that there was a period of weakness and they think they’ve now fought it off,” said Scissors. “That may actually be true.”

Staging a recovery

As China begins a new year, some of the official data suggest that the government has staged a recovery in 2016 after returning to the once-scorned formula of massive stimulus spending, infrastructure projects and excessive bank loans.

In November, yuan-denominated lending jumped 22 percent from a month earlier to 794.6 billion yuan (U.S. $114.4 billion), the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reported.

Surrogate indicators like power consumption have shown signs of recovery with five-percent growth through 11 months after rising only 0.5 percent in all of 2015.

While heavy industry and trade have slumped from the heady days of the past decade, officials have taken heart from retail sales, which rose 10.8 percent from a year earlier in November, while industrial output showed a moderate gain of 6.2 percent.

Even that much industrial growth may have a dark side, since it includes sudden spurts from the high-polluting and overcapacity coal and steel industries, which the government had pledged to get under control.

Last week, the State Council punished two deputy governors in eastern Jiangsu and northern Hebei provinces for allowing previously closed steel mills to reopen, state media reported.

The unauthorized production has been blamed for last month’s red-alert smog in Beijing and more than 20 other cities.

Reviews of the past year are likely to find an uneven pattern of government interventions and asset bubbles, like those in real estate, coal and steel, rather than the steady application of economic policies that stabilization implies.

The government seems to have succeeded in cooling the speculative growth of housing prices late last year, but only after urging cities to restore controls on second and third home buying that were lifted in 2015.

Given the reactions to the bubbles in property, coal and steel, the government cannot rely on those sectors for growth in 2017.

As excess liquidity seeks outlets and investment opportunities abroad, the government may have set the stage for capital flight.

Final figures for 2016 are likely to show a growing imbalance of outbound over inbound investment as capital flows toward the stronger currency and rising interest rates of the United States.

In the first 11 months of last year, China’s non-financial outbound direct investment (ODI) soared 55.3 percent to 1.07 trillion yuan (U.S. $154 billion). That compares with foreign direct investment (FDI) of 731.8 billion yuan (U.S. $105.3 billion), up only 3.9 percent from a year earlier.

Government’s response

In response, the government has ordered banks to tighten foreign exchange policies in what amounts to creeping capital controls.

The yuan began 2016 at about 6.5 to the U.S. dollar and ended the year at 6.945 to the dollar, depreciating by 6.5 percent.

In November, China’s foreign exchange reserves fell to $3.05 trillion (21.2 trillion yuan) in the fifth monthly decline in a row.

If the trends continue into 2017, China could come close to the minimum level of U.S. $2.8 trillion (19.4 trillion yuan) it is estimated to need for covering its imports, servicing debt and keeping confidence in the yuan.

Given the challenges, a loosely-defined stability may be as much as the government can safely promise.

The government is not expected to announce specific targets for GDP growth in 2017 until its annual legislative meetings in March. But an official rate of 6.5 percent would allow it to argue that the “new normal” of sustainable growth is continuing while the numbers are coming down at a stable pace.

A forecast by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) predicts 6.5 percent growth for the first two quarters, slipping slightly to 6.4 percent in the second half.

“The gap between reality and official data is narrowing, and that is a sign of stabilization,” Scissors said.