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Fight In Cyberspace: The State Strikes Back – Analysis

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Ensuring that the state is secure from cyber threats is increasingly becoming the priority of states all over the world, sometimes clashing with concerns over privacy. There are four notable ways that states have increased their presence in cyberspace in 2016, and this presence is forecast to become more prominent in 2017.

By Eugene E G Tan*

In 2016, there are four main ways that states have tried to use cyberspace to either raise the level of security in cyberspace, or affect the security stance of other states. First, to misquote Clausewitz, states are increasingly using cyber as an extension of policy by other means. Russia was accused by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and Department of Homeland Security in October 2016 for interfering with the US presidential elections.

The agencies charged that the Russians hacked into the computers of the Democratic National Congress (DNC), and then leaked the emails to WikiLeaks to discredit the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, whom they thought would be less favourable to Russian interests. This episode provides an interesting twist to what is considered to be the critical information infrastructure (CII) in any given state.

Cyber As A Tool of Influence

Typically, states see CII to be more technical in nature and in fields like transportation, communications, and finance, but now they also need to view the media, electoral and political system as a CII, which needs to be protected against interference from other states who want to influence opinion and decision making. Singapore is vulnerable to these information operations, given that it has a democratically elected government, and has seen an increasing number of “news” websites commenting on Singaporean issues.

Second, states around the world are increasingly looking to implement strong surveillance laws with regard to cyberspace. China approved its new Cybersecurity Bill in November 2016, with more stringent rules requiring companies to provide data to the Chinese government upon suspicion of wrongdoing. The bill also requires businesses’ domestic data to be stored on Chinese servers and this data cannot be transferred overseas without state permission.

The United Kingdom has also passed the Investigatory Powers Act 2016 giving the state broad ranging powers that allow surveillance to be conducted on a large scale. It is only a matter of time before more states adopt such sweeping legislation on surveillance in cyberspace.

Singapore should be concerned as an aspiring technology hub and international data storage centre, with Singaporean companies and Singapore-based multinational corporations alike owning data that could be subject to other states’ laws and surveillance. There will be more pressure placed on technological companies to provide information and data to states.

Corporations may also have to concede on some dearly-held principles to do business in a foreign state, or forgo business opportunities in that state altogether. Therefore, Singapore needs to consider the economic impact if it were to consider enacting similar legislation.

The Desire for Backdoor Access

Third, states increasingly want back doors to be built into the security of commercially available software, or for access to private data that has been secured by businesses. In the case Apple vs FBI last year, the state, represented by the FBI, brought Apple to court to compel it to help unlock the encryption of a deceased terrorist’s phone. Apple refused to do so, arguing that this would create a backdoor, and would make all iPhones vulnerable to malicious hackers.

Given the failure of the United States in getting Apple to unlock a terrorist’s phone, it may be difficult for Singapore, as a small nation, to compel large corporations like Apple to tweak encryption technology to help with its law enforcement efforts. In the wake of terror attacks this year, France and Germany are also pushing the European Union to adopt a law that would require software companies to make encrypted messages available to law enforcement. The right to privacy has thus come under much pressure in the past year even in Western democracies that were previously known for their liberal views.

Singapore has to determine if its security concerns outweigh the privacy of its citizens. It is not a given that Singaporeans will always choose security over privacy. Attitudes towards the balance between privacy and security are in flux, and laws should ideally reflect the societal attitudes.

State As Protector Of All Data

Fourth, some states appear to be offering cybersecurity protection to private enterprises. In September 2016, Ciaran Martin, the head of cyber at the United Kingdom surveillance agency GCHQ, proposed erecting a government-maintained firewall against malicious hackers. The primary goal of the move is to secure government websites and critical infrastructures against hackers, but in his comments, Martin said it could be expanded to include private companies as well.

While this move naturally raises privacy concerns about governments holding and securing the data, the overall security gain for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) who are concerned about the cost of implementing an effective cybersecurity programme may tempt some of these enterprises to entrust their data or systems to a government-maintained firewall.

States should however be aware of the additional risk in assuming responsibility for cybersecurity of SMEs. While this move may bring SMEs up to a minimum standard, a government cloud, with multiple SME eggs in one basket, would be a prime target for cyberattacks, and any breach or breakdown would result not only in financial losses, but also in reputational and political damage.

2017 And Beyond: Implications for Smart Nation

State intervention in cyberspace is not a new thing, but the tightening embrace of cyber issues by the state can be quite disconcerting and worrying to individuals and business. This is especially true for individuals who fiercely guard their privacy, or those who fear giving states too much power over its citizens. This may well lead to a restriction of fundamental liberties. States need to realise that the increasing Orwellian nature of state behaviour in cyberspace reduces the confidence of all users of cyberspace.

Given the increasing stewardship role of states in cyberspace, there should be appropriate discussion over who will provide the role of ombudsman to the state, and if there is a danger of overreach into the personal lives of people. There is thus also a need to define how information is secured, while protecting both personal and enterprise privacy.

This has implications for Singapore as an aspiring Smart Nation. The state will be responsible for a massive amount of data about its citizens, and any misuse of this data could erode trust in the agencies using the data. There are consequences for expanding the role of the state in cyberspace, and these consequences may not be conducive for the growth of both the society and the economy.

*Eugene E G Tan is an Associate Research Fellow at the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.


Misreading Trump, Putin And US-Russian Relations – Analysis

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The ongoing biases against Russia lead to new matters to refute. Matching the gross one-sidedness of her Washington Post (WaPo) employer, Kathleen Parker’s January 6 essay “If Obama Is a Muslim, Is Trump a Russian Spy?“, overlooks some damning points running counter to her faulty slant. Donald Trump has taken back his comments that questioned whether Barack Obama is American born. For its part, The WaPo continues to denigrate Russia in a factually challenged manner. (The use of the crank Propornot website and the false claim of a Russian hacking of the Vermont power grid being prime examples, along with continuous top heavy anti-Russian op-ed pieces and news reports.)

Parker suggests a double standard favoring Muslim bashing over her presented claim of Russian mischief against the US. She describes Russia as an “enemy”. Her overlooked hypocrisy concerns the select outrage over anti-Muslim stances (real and hyped), while being soft on the frequent instances of bias against pro-Russian advocacy.

Lacking specifics, Parker’s “proof” against Russia is the faith based US Intel report, which unlike her doesn’t refer to Russia as an “enemy”, while claiming a concerted Vladimir Putin approved Russian government effort to support Trump by defaming Hillary Clinton. Regarding that report, the mind reading point about the Russian government and Russia’s mass media preferring Trump over Clinton is in the no kidding and so what category. Trump has openly sought better US relations with Russia, as Clinton was the preferred choice of the anti-Russian neocons.

The January 8 exchange between Fox News host Chris Wallace and Trump’s Chief-of-Staff Reince Priebus included the latter saying in the beginning that “he thinks” that Trump accepts the claim of Russian hacking of Democratic Party emails. Wallace’s persistent questioning led Preibus to change course later on in the discussion, saying that the president-elect accepted the Intel take of Russian hacking. In any event, Trump (for now) doesn’t seem to believe that this matter should cloud the effort to improve US-Russian relations.

There’s a difference between hacking from the Russian government and Russian hackers who hack en masse, independent of the Kremlin. For several years, there’ve been reports of hacking from Russia, the US and elsewhere against ordinary Americans and others throughout the world. Ideally, there should be conclusive proof that the Russian government used a third party to advance their purported cause, as has been suggested in some circles.

With confidentiality respected, a CNN host privately asked how I could consider Julian Assange’s take over US Intel? For the record, I didn’t specifically say such. Is Assange less biased than the Democratic Party utilized CrowdStrike, that has also essentially been used to promote negativity towards the counter-Euromaidan rebels in Ukraine? CrowdStrike has ties to the Atlantic Council – a group that has been overly partisan against Russia.

I’m not alone in believing that the trustworthiness of US Intel is compromised by its politicized element and a past that has been found to not always be honest. This politicization was noted last week by Fox news host Brett Baier, who said that Trump’s criticism of Intel has been misrepresented. Opposing politically driven and questionable Intel claims doesn’t necessarily belittle the need for accurate Intel and recognizing that not everyone associated with that grouping has the faulty slants of John Brennan, James Clapper, Malcolm Nance and Michael Hayden. (Nance and Hayden are former US Intel personnel, who’re frequent US mass media talking heads.)

There’s ample reason to seriously question if the released Democratic party emails (however done) made a difference in the outcome of the 2016 US presidential result. To date, I’m unaware of any poll revealing that the released Democratic Party emails had significantly changed the outcome of that vote.

The Democratic Party should be faulted for having a lax cyber security regimen, along with saying some ethically challenging things. Not to be overlooked are the numerous instances of US government meddling in the elections of other countries  and the reality of major powers (perceived allies and otherwise) spying on each other.

On January 3, there were two segments featuring different perspectives on the released Democratic Party emails in question. Fox News’ Sean Hannity, had a lengthy one on one with Assange, that brought up the criminal charges made against the WikiLeaks founder. The PBS NewsHour segment with CIA Director John Brennan, included this quote from him:

We see what he has done in places like Crimea and Ukraine and in Syria. he tends to flex muscles, not just on himself, but also in terms of Russia’s military capabilities. He plays by his own rules in terms of what it is that he does in some of these theaters of conflict.

So I don’t think we underestimated him. He has sought to advance Russia’s interests in areas where there have been political vacuums and conflicts. But he doesn’t ascribe to the same types of rules that we do, for example, in law of armed conflict. What the Russians have done in Syria in terms of some of the scorched-earth policy that they have pursued that have led to devastation and thousands upon thousands of innocent deaths, that’s not something that the United States would ever do in any of these military conflicts.”

Own rules as in what Turkey has done in northern Cyprus and the Clinton led NATO in Kosovo? It was a shameful example of journalism on the part of PBS to let Brennan’s comments go unchallenged. PBS had earlier run a pro-CrowdStrike feature. It’s not as if there aren’t any expert cyber security/ intelligence sources offering a different perspective.

As for the devastation of thousands of civilians during war (raised by Brennan), consider some past US actions like what happened in Japan during WW II, the Cold War activity in Southeast Asia, as well as post-Cold War actions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The collateral damage emphasis has been hypocritically applied. Along with the subjectively dubious comments of Hayden and Nance, the above excerpted comments from Brennan are indicative of a (past and present) politicized element within US Intel.

Among Russia friendly circles, some kudos has been given to Fox News’ Hannity and Tucker Carlson. Like their employer, these two individuals have a preference for Trump over the Democrats. However, like many pro-Trump sources, Hannity and Carlson maintain some of the anti-Russian biases, as The WaPo and some others speak of a possible unknown money trail linking Trump to Russia.

Trump has had known business interests involving China and some predominately Muslim countries. That aspect hasn’t prevented him from saying things that aren’t favored in these countries. There’re other Americans besides Trump who favor improved US-Russian relations in opposition to the neocon/neolib preference.

Pat Buchanan serves as an example of an anti-Communist patriotic American, who second guesses the negative image of Putin and Russia. There’s also the community of anti-Communist White Russians in the US and elsewhere, which have a good number opposed to the current hostility towards Russia. From a more left leaning perspective, Stephen Cohen and some lessor known individuals aren’t anti-American in believing that the US (from its interests) shouldn’t be so antagonistic towards Russia. American foreign policy realists include disagreement with the need for having unfriendly US-Russian relations.

An example of the ongoing bias is the obligatory “Putin is a thug” disclaimer frequently bandied about. As has been confidentially acknowledged to me, some well meaning folks do this as a means to soften criticism against their commentary, which otherwise goes against the neocon/neolib slant. Talk about “self censorship”.

From a distance, Putin (IMO) doesn’t come across as being more mean spirited than Clinton, John McCain and some others who disparage him. With the pro-Trump/anti-Russian leaning people in mind, was Trump elected for being a nice guy? The personal insults against Putin are hypocritically petty. Upon a reasonable objective and comprehensive overview, the litany of negative claims against him are quite suspect. Yet, they keep getting uncritically rehashed in a way that exhibits a lack of diversity in US mass media and body politic.

Short of providing greater attention to the likes of Lindsey Graham and McCain, the provocative name calling and other forms of posturing against Putin/Russia haven’t worked. It’s not in America’s best interests to use Russia as a political football to get at Trump and cater to anti-Russian advocacy. Trump should be accorded the opportunity to pursue better US-Russian relations.

My last Strategic Culture Foundation article of January 1, counters the presentation of Obama and his predecessors (Bill Clinton and GW Bush) seeking to pursue that endeavor.

Michael Averko is a New York based independent foreign policy analyst and media critic. This article initially appeared at the Strategic Culture Foundation’s website on January 11.

Why Donald Trump Is Obama’s Logical Successor – OpEd

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Establishment Republicans have been beating their breasts over Trump’s election no less than Hillary’s supporters, bewildered that a man so beyond the pale could have been the Republican nominee, much less President-elect.

Chief among their theories is that a stronger national committee mechanism to identify and back their favored (read: establishment-representative) candidate for the nomination early on would have prevented this. Clearly, so this theory goes, the splintering made possible by the free-for-all of self-selected primary candidates provided the opening for Trump to undermine the orderly process, and the solution is to bring the process back under the control of a strong central committee.

Yet an honest assessment shows that it was precisely this strategy that cost the Democrats the 2016 election, and the Republicans those of 2008 and 2012.

Americans have arguably been thwarted in their efforts to elect an outsider to the White House since their disillusionment with eight years of establishment rule under George W. Bush. Millions latched on to the unknown who had painted a picture of hope and unity as the Democratic National Convention keynote speaker in 2004. Although an Ivy League graduate and freshman Senator, a black man named Barack Obama could not by anyone’s definition be labeled “insider.”

On the Republican side, young people especially were drawn to the campaign of the critic-in-chief of the Washington status quo, Ron Paul.

Both unconventional outsiders, Obama and Paul promised to halt endless foreign wars and domestic assault on civil liberties. Both promised to do away with the revolving door of cronyism that favored insider elites over the common man.

Obama was quickly able to swamp the campaign of the presumed heiress-apparent and ultimate insider, Hillary Clinton, to win the Democratic nomination. And he went on to win the election with his outsider’s message of bringing Hope and Change to Washington.

Unfortunately, once in office, the outsider Obama quickly adapted to Washington’s workings, and the change Americans hoped for failed to materialize. By late 2011, Obama’s job approval ratings had fallen below 50%, and two-thirds of voters thought America was on the “wrong track.”

Despite this, no Democrat, of course, could challenge the incumbent, and in the run-up to the 2012 election, perennial outsider Ron Paul again captured the popular imagination of millions of young people. But as they had in 2008, the establishment Republican Party, aided and abetted by mainstream media that refused to acknowledge him as a viable candidate (perhaps most famously satirized by Jon Stewart’s likening him to a hotel’s “13th floor”), quickly froze him out of the running.

The Republican Party instead nominated solidly establishment candidates in both 2008 and 2012. Especially in 2012, the strategy ensured their snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, even as Republicans kept Congress and won a greater majority in 2014.

In the run-up to the 2016 election, the Republican Party, despite its best efforts, completely lost control of the primary and nomination process. By dint of a larger-than-life persona and media attention meant to ridicule and destroy that instead provided him the biggest soapbox ever, Trump was able, at last, to provide the people a candidate they wanted: a real, honest-to-goodness outsider, shunned and derided by the elite establishment they blamed for their ills.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders’ candidacy provided similar promise to Democrats and others seeking the same. But as since revealed in complete detail, the powerful DNC machinery thoroughly ensured that the anointing of Hillary, the ultimate status quo-protecting insider, would move forward without disruption.

Whether or not Donald Trump similarly falls prey to “Potomac fever” and becomes a Washington insider, rather than looking to misperceived “glory days” of machine politics, those hoping for better candidates from which to choose in the future might better seek a system that provides an honest forum, on a level playing field, for voters to assess candidates. Let’s give up covering politics as entertainment, and instead devise a system more akin to how we make other selections important to us, such as who we hire, date, or marry.

Who knows, maybe a variation of LinkedIn or OkCupid would better provide Americans a competitive marketplace of ideas, where side-by-side comparisons could be made of Candidate A’s credentials and proposals vs. Candidate B through Z’s. Any aspiring Developers willing to take it on?

This article was published by The Beacon

Spain Receives 81 Eritrean Refugees From Italy

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Spain received 81 refugees on Wednesday from Italy under the European Union relocation program set up to tackle the humanitarian consequences of the war in Syria.

The refugees, of Eritrean nationality, arrived at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport in two groups, one comprising 20 people, and a second group, comprising 61 asylum-seekers.

Of the 81 refugees, 67 are men, 12 are women and two are children, who will be relocated to Cordoba (13), Asturias (9), Navarre (9), Valencia (2), the Balearic Islands (11), La Rioja (4), Alava (3), Guipuzcoa (3), Murcia (5) and Madrid (20).

Spain has now taken in a total of 979 applicants for international protection, 690 under the relocation program and 289 under the resettlement program, according to the Spanish government.

The Spanish System for the Reception and Integration of applicants/beneficiaries of international protection offers its beneficiaries a stay at a reception center of the Ministry of Employment and Social Security or of an NGO (subsidized by the government) at which they are guaranteed lodging, meals, legal advice, psychological assistance, social care and advice, accompaniment to education centers, public health and social centers, language learning and basic social skills, guidance and intermediation for vocational training and job reinsertion, cultural activities and economic aid.

Trump’s Russian ‘Reset’: Implications For India – Analysis

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A US-Russia rapprochement might work in favour of India.

By Himani Pant

Conjectures regarding Donald Trump’s foreign policy have been afloat ever since his surprise win in the US presidential election last year. As he prepares to take over the White House next week, his apparent willingness to ‘reset’ relations with Russia is leading to intense speculation about the consequences of such a policy approach.

Trump, who has also remained outspoken in his admiration for Russian president Vladimir Putin, considers the latter a better and smarter leader than Obama. The admiration has been reciprocated from Russia — Putin was among the first ones to congratulate Trump post his win. In his congratulatory message, he expressed “confidence that Moscow and Washington can establish a constructive dialogue based on the principles of equality, mutual respect, and genuine consideration for each other’s positions.” This is indicative of Putin’s willingness to work closely with Trump administration on resolving global issues of equal concern. Predominant among this would be the fight against ISIS which both regard as a major threat in the Middle East.

The President-elect has already made several moves which mark a departure from the policies that the US had been following for a fairly long time. He has vowed to withdraw the US from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and expressed his criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance, shaking the foundations of US commitment to European security that dates back to 1941. His choice of candidates, which includes the appointment of Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Rex Tillerson as the Secretary of State and Robert Lighthizer as his chief trade negotiator, signals the same. While the former is alleged to have a close proximity with the Russian president, the latter has remained a harsh critic of China’s trade practices.

US reset with Russia inevitably affects India as it involves a traditional ‘time tested friend’ and a rapidly evolving ‘strategic’ ally.

While Indo-Russian relations are yet to reach their full potential economically, Indo-US ties have gained unprecedented momentum over the last few years. Though Russia still continues to be a major source of military equipment for India, the latter has got closer to the US of late. 2016 was especially eventful in this regard with US designating India as a major defence partner. Defence trade grew to over $15 billion and the M777 advanced howitzer deal was finally concluded. Though not yet operational, the two sides also signed the Logistic Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) — a modified version of the Access and Cross Sharing Arrangement (ACSA) with several other quasi-military allies. Growing Indo-US strategic ties are a matter of concern for Russia since it would like to preserve its arms market in India.

A similar concern regarding Russia’s proximity to China and Pakistan is shared by India which remains wary of their cooperation. Sino-Russian relations have received a fresh impetus following West’s isolation of Russia after the Ukrainian crisis. In addition, ever since Russia removed its arms embargo against Islamabad the same year, a sort of rapprochement between the two has followed. In 2015, Moscow agreed to sell four Mi-35M helicopters and welcomed Islamabad to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In 2016, the two also went ahead with the first-ever “mutual special drills” in the mountainous region of Cherat, in spite of India’s concerns following the Uri attack (drills in the Rattu area of Gilgit-Baltistan were however allegedly cancelled). Interestingly, Russia’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov downplayed the military exercises with Pakistan during the Heart of Asia conference held in Amritsar last month. He also hinted at India’s close ties with the US in order to defend a “much lower level of cooperation” between Russia and Pakistan. The latest in the spate of events is Russia’s alleged interest in China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as well as the recently concluded trilateral meeting in Moscow to discuss the situation in Afghanistan which sought for a “flexible approach” to remove UN sanctions on certain Taliban “figures” as part of efforts to reach a peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban movement.

Easing of tension between the US and Russia would place India in a congenial position. It would help in restoring the trust factor between India and Russia, given their mutual suspicions regarding the growing relations with the US, China and Pakistan respectively.

India has so far balanced the US and Russia in importing defence equipment. It recently signed a contract with the US for importing M777 ultra-light howitzers. This was preceded by agreements with Russia on importing three 11356 frigates and S-400 missiles. Softening of relations would to a great degree ease the predicament that India currently faces while trying to diversify its imports and balancing its traditional relations.

In addition, the rupture between the West and Russia has had wide-ranging geopolitical implications. As a result of Western isolation due to the Ukrainian crisis, Moscow has been tilting towards Beijing, where the balance of power favours latter. An amicable relationship between the US and Russia would help the former in checking China’s increasingly assertive posture globally. A continued Sino-Russian ‘entente’ has the potential to adversely affect Russia’s policy towards India too. A US-Russia rapprochement might work in favour of India which, as pointed earlier, has been wary of the growing closeness between the two.

While hopes are high, it would be interesting to see how the situation plays out given the outgoing US president has dismissed thirty five Russian diplomats over the alleged Democratic National Committee (DNC) hack and imposed fresh sanctions on Russia — a move which has not been retaliated by the Kremlin which hopes for better relations under Trump administration. Ironically, a ‘reset’ with Russia was also one of the foreign policy priorities of the Obama administration in its first term. However, by early 2014, it had fallen apart completely due to growing tension in Ukraine. A revival would thus depend on the extent to which Trump is able to translate his rhetoric into action.

Famous People Have Forgotten Swiss Bank Accounts

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By Matthew Allen

As one of the world’s most prominent rock climbers in his day, Royal Robbins liked to erase any traces of his ascents. Following a stint of instructing in Switzerland he did leave something behind – a forgotten bank account that is now one of nearly 4,000 publicly listed as dormant.

Each account has been dormant for at least 60 years and must contain a minimum CHF500. Put together, they bulge with well in excess of CHF52 million ($51 million). Account holders, or their descendants, have a maximum of five years to claim these assets or lose them to the Swiss state.

Robbins, the first climber to ascend the northwest face of the Half Dome in Yosemite National Park and founder of the successful outdoor clothing company that bears his name, now lives in the United States – his home country. He is currently in poor health, hence his wife Liz responded to swissinfo.ch.

“I honestly don’t recall having an account there, but we most likely did,” she said by emailed correspondence. She added that the couple most likely opened the account in the 1960s when Royal was an instructor at the International School of Mountaineering in Leysin, canton Vaud.

That would make the account no more than 50 years old – an anomaly that is difficult to explain as accounts should be dormant for at least 60 years to appear on the website. The Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) said it was down to individual banks to add accounts and that it could not monitor all entries.

Liz Robbins could not recall their bank ever trying to get in touch to say that the account had gone dormant. “I will [now] contact the bank and close the account, thanks to you,” she wrote.

The ease with which Robbins was traced shows that some Swiss banks have not being doing their homework, says André Naef, co-founder of the FAST Search company, which tracks clients on behalf of banks.

Ticking bombs

The former private banking executive is now helping financial institutions tidy up their dormant accounts and private clients find their Swiss assets.

The 4,000 accounts that have been dormant for at least 60 years are just the tip of the iceberg, according to Naef. Banks are reluctant to say how much money is contained in these accounts, but the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) says around 2,900 of them hold approximately CHF52 million.

Naef estimates that all dormant accounts – where contact has been lost with the account holder for at least two years – contain at least CHF2 billion.

This might prove a problem from 2018 when Switzerland starts automatically passing on information to other countries to counter tax evasion.

“There might well be some reputational bombs contained in these accounts that draw some awkward questions from other countries,” he told swissinfo.ch. “I’m surprised that many banks are not making much of an effort to clean them up.”

The Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) said tax evasion issues had no part to play in the creation of the dormant accounts website.

“Banks all over the world can be confronted to a situation where the contact to a client is lost,” the SBA said in a written response. “The current legislation was established on the suggestion of the banks to find a legally suitable solution for accounts that were dormant for a very, very long time.”

“When an owner (or a legitimate heir) of a dormant account is found, it is the responsibility of this person to fulfil tax obligations that may arise from this account.”

Firestone heirs

Indeed, there are other names contained in the accounts that are relatively simple to trace using simple Google searches. For example, Harvey S Firestone of Akron, United States, can surely only be the founder of Firestone Tires, or his son.

In his time, Firestone senior was one of the richest people in the US, rubbing shoulders with Henry Ford and Thomas Edison in the so-called ‘Millionaire’s Club’ in the early 20th century. While there is no evidence to suggest that this (or any) account is undeclared, the fact that the bank did not spot such an easily recognisable name worries Naef.

“It shows that banks simply don’t know and investigate enough about their clients,” he said.

The patchy records on the dormant accounts list makes it nearly impossible to trace some accounts. In some cases, the bank does not even know the name of the client, let alone their birth date, nationality, place of residence or account number.

With regard to the dormant account list, Naef believes that there is enough information to almost certainly find 10% of the account holders, or their descendants, and a reasonable chance of tracking down a further 44%. In the first year of the website, just 5% of accounts were claimed.

On December 16, an initial 149 dormant accounts were due to be turned over to the state unless the assets were claimed. The SBA said it does not know how many accounts have actually been closed, or the amount that has gone to the state.

Dormant bank accounts

Following a change in the banking law, Switzerland set up a website to list the oldest dormant accounts in December 2015. The public record only contains accounts where contact has been lost for at least 60 years.

The website is periodically updated with fresh names. The original list of 2,600, published in December 20015, has already swelled to nearly 4,000. The exact amounts of funds has not been revealed because banks are reluctant to release such information. But the SBA has put an approximate figure of CHF52 million against about three quarters of the accounts.

Account owners, or beneficiaries have between one and five years to claim assets. After that, accounts will be closed and the assets handed to the Swiss state.

Only half of the entries include the client’s nationality. Of these, nearly two thirds are Swiss – the next largest group are French (15%), followed by other countries bordering Switzerland. The United States accounts for less than 1% of listed nationalities.

The oldest recorded birth date is 1808, the youngest 1956 and the average age is 111 years.

Cindy Sheehan: End Of An Error And Beginning Of Another – OpEd

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Please, take a ride with me on Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine to election night 2008:

I was rather busy that night, because for the prior 18 months, I had set up “camp” in San Francisco on Mission St. in a campaign to defeat then Speaker of the House and treacherous Democrat, Nancy Pelosi.

The first returns were bleak, I was getting single digit results, but we ended up with almost 17% and a second place finish–but, even though I think we did really respectably, this is not the focus of this recollection.

That night, I received a phone call on my private cell-phone, I still have no idea who it was, because I couldn’t understand his name, but he was literally screaming, “we did it Cindy! We did it! We got rid of Bush and elected Obama!”

First of all, “we” didn’t do anything. I didn’t support Obama in 2008 because I actually listened to what he said about promising more war and he voted for and made a full-court press for the bankster bailout and such horrible initiatives like NDAA, among other things.

Secondly, “we” didn’t get rid of Bush–one of the oligarch’s most brilliant ploys is a regular election for President of the United States that gives an appearance of a “peaceful and orderly” transition of power. In reality, the only thing that transitions is the personnel, the policies of empire and vampire capitalism stay firmly in place.

I never gave Obama a “break” like I was constantly urged to do by people, I assume, who didn’t want the truth pointed out to them. No matter how some want to keep their heads in the sand, the barest reality is that Obama continued the imperial rampage through the Middle East; is aggressively, continually, and maniacally provoking Russia; passed a “health”care reform bill that was nothing but welfare for big pharma, HMOs and insurance companies; increased the police state and didn’t prosecute killer cops; increased oil production and financially protected BP after the Deepwater Horizon gusher; prosecuted twice as many whistleblowers as all the presidents before him since Wilson, and etc, and etc.

Obama was the perfect foil and servant of Empire for the past two-terms because if anyone opposed him we could be smeared with the awful sobriquet of “racist,” and many were afraid to oppose him for fear of even giving the appearance of being a bigot. Also, I have learned (the hard way) that many things considered evil during a Republican regime are not so bad to some when a Democrat is the prez. Partisan politics in the US will kill this earth if we don’t realize this and struggle against it. Also, incredibly, if you didn’t want Obama to be a stone-cold killer, you were tarnished with being a “purist,” as if anything about waging mass-murder against civilian populations is positive, and only someone who is “pure” would be against it?

So, for the prior eight years, I have been waging this struggle against Obama, not because I think Obama is even a little bit in charge, but because this nation puts so much stock in “personality” and Obama was putatively in charge. How can one highlight the hypocrisies of this demented system without knocking down the icons that support it?

I will not give Trump “a chance” either. I will be in the streets as much as possible, when possible, and I will be using The Soapbox to tell the truth as always, but the irony is, the people who thought I turned into a dimwit when Obama was president, will once again agree with me and think, maybe, I have wised-up again.

I do want to give fair warning though.

I believe that the Republicans are a sordid lot of rightwing reactionary fascists. I think that most of you reading this piece will be simpatico with that view. However, I believe the treachery of the Democratic Party is far worse and I will be keeping a close eye on Pelosi/Schumer and their minions in the months and years to come. I know I will hear, “Obama is gone Cindy, get over it.” The world will not be able to “get over” Obama’s legacy, as we still suffer from many past presidents who slunk off to peace and comfort after their destructive presidential behavior came to a Constitutional end.

It’s laughable to think that a nation that was built on genocide and forced slave labor which has NOT been at some kind of overt or nasty covert war for about 20 years of its existence can be made “Great” AGAIN. How about joining together in solidarity as workers, peace advocates, and social justice advocates to make this nation “Great” for once?

“Errors” cannot end when they are foundational and institutional. The “Powers That Be” have long waged class war against us and when we only vent our rage against 1/2 of those criminals, we do ourselves and the world a great disservice. True revolution will only come when we are repelled by and reject the intolerance and oppression of empire and capitalism.We are not each others’ enemies–we need to “shoot” up, not sideways, or down, to hit the ones who torment us all.

What Does US Congress Know About Bosnia-Herzegovina? – Analysis

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On the basis of a report by Steven Woehrel, entitled ‘Bosnia-Herzegovina: Current issues and U.S. policy’, an average American congressperson is unlikely to form a clear or consistent or adequate image of Bosnia-Herzegovina, and will therefore be unable to found on the report an implementable, or viable or consistent, foreign policy towards the country.

By Dražen Pehar*

In January 2013, Steven Woehrel, a European affairs specialist, presented a report on Bosnia-Herzegovina to the members and commissions of the US Congress. The report, titled “Bosnia-Herzegovina: Current issues and U.S. policy,” and archived as R40479, is proposed to the US Congress as a fruit of the work of the U.S. Congressional Research Service. The 12-page document thus embodies a narrative frame of Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) that every American congressman and –woman concerned with the state should have internalized by now. Hence, in this regard the key question may be put as follows: upon having read, grasped, and taken as credible the aforementioned report, is an American congressperson likely to form an image of BiH that is clearer, more pertinent, and more informative than no image at all? Secondly, is the image likely to be adequate and pertinent in two essential aspects: first, will the congressperson form or obtain a story that includes the key phenomena and relations? Thirdly, will the congressperson form or obtain a sufficiently consistent and informative image on the foundation of which s/he may base a practical and viable U.S. policy vis-a-vis BiH, i.e. a realistic and implementable foreign political initiative?

In this brief essay I explain why the answer to both questions must be in the negative. Having read Woehrel’s report, or research, an average American congressperson is unlikely to form a clear or consistent or adequate image of BiH; hence, the man or woman will be unable to found on the report an implementable, or viable or consistent, foreign policy towards the BiH. In other words, assuming that Woehrel’s report embodies an exhaustive cluster of data concerning the BiH that the U.S. Congress is in possession of, the institution is neither familiar with the most crucial facts, including, most importantly, the nature of today’s political relations within BiH, nor is it endowed with a contradiction-free image on which it could base a viable and potentially successful foreign policy. Of course, one could only make a bold conjecture on the causes of such a state of affairs. Prima facie it is unclear how, and why, a super-power with a population of over 300 hundred million, and with the best universities of the world, the largest number of Nobel-prize winners, an enviable tradition of political thought, and also the most advanced technology in the world, is not capable of producing for its legislators a truthful and plausible analysis of the political affairs as are practiced in a state with which American politicians dealt extensively and through a protracted period of time. This, of course, does not mean that one should not raise some interesting and inspiring questions, and point to some possibilities, that could serve to the future researchers as guidelines for an empirically sound, social or political epistemological research.

In the first section of the essay, my focus is on Woehrel’s propositions on BiH in the sense of their veridical value – I simply demonstrate that his propositions are insufficiently fit to survive a scrutiny based on historical and political facts, having in mind that the latter also include those of a legal and ethical character. In the second section of the essay, my focus is on Woehrel’s statements in the sense of the narrative coherence and relevance; in this regard I will be especially interested in Woehrel’s ‘blind spots,’ that is, the facts and relations that have not, but should have, found their place in his narrative, which gives me a sound evidence in support of the thesis that Woehrel is actually actively trying to conceal those facts and relations. In the third section, I make an attempt at explaining, or at least partially making sense of, the fact that the U.S. Congress was presented with an analysis or research of such a low cognitive quality.

1. Veridical value

It is already on page 1 of Woehrel’s report that one can find a clear historical fabrication i.e. a distortion of historical facts: “Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic, a Bosniak, worried [in 1991 and early 1992] about the possible spread of the conflict to Bosnia and tried to find a compromise solution. However, these efforts were made very difficult by the Milosevic and Tudjman regimes, both of which had designs on Bosnian territory. In addition, Izetbegovic’s hand was forced by the European Community (EC) decision in December 1991 to grant diplomatic recognition to any of the former Yugoslav republics that requested it, provided that the republics held a referendum on independence and agreed to respect minority rights, the borders of neighboring republics, and other conditions. Izetbegovic and other Bosniaks felt they could not remain in a Milosevic-dominated rump Yugoslavia and had to seek independence and EC recognition, even given the grave threat such a move posed to peace in the republic. Bosnian Serb leaders warned that international recognition of Bosnia-Herzegovina would lead to civil war.“

Obviously, after you read the paragraph, your impression of the causes of the war in BiH will amount to the following narrative: Tuđman’s and Milošević’s regime, and also partly the EC, but especially the leaders of the Bosnian Serbs, who have responded by force and rebellion to the international recognition of BiH, are those responsible for the outbreak of Bosnian war. Most importantly, the paragraph suggests that Izetbegović was a ‘good guy’ who even sought some compromise solutions. However, the suggested image is fully inadequate. As to BiH, Izetbegović has not sought a compromise solution: his message, in 1991 and immediately prior to the 1992 referendum for independence, was clear – either a full sovereignty of BiH or a war [1]. In other words, in Woehrel’s narrative all the key facts are simply deleted: deleted is the fact that, in early 1992 too, BiH is a multiethnic state composed of three equal and equally constituent peoples; deleted is the fact that, prior to the outbreak of the war, Izetbegović signed on two occasions a compromise peace plan drafted not by him but by the EC/EU representatives; however, he swiftly revoked his signature on both occasions and thus clearly indicated his will to rely on an armed force as a conflict-resolving means; deleted is as well the fact that, on one occasion at least, Izetbegović revoked his signature after his meeting with the US Ambassador Zimmermann in Sarajevo [2]; and perhaps most importantly, deleted is the fact that, trough his many 1991 and 1992 public statements, Izetbegović expressed his view that BiH was, or should be deemed, a state in which the Bosniak-Muslim people’s right as somehow foundational, and primarily state-making one, to BiH, and more important to the state than the rights of the other two peoples (and even, in Izetbegović’s view but contrary to empirical reality, a majority one in BiH), must be recognized and affirmed; this Izetbegovic’s view was and remains irreconcilable to the explicit wording of key constitutional provisions of BiH (that, contrary to Izetbegovic’s view, the three BiH peoples are equally foundational and co-constitutional) [3].

Now, Woehrel’s fact-clouding claims extend to the post-war, post-Dayton, peace implementation period as well. For instance, on p. 3 is Woehrel’s statement concerning the Office of High Representative as follows: “At a December 1997 PIC conference in Bonn, Germany, the international community granted the High Representative powers (known as the ‘Bonn powers’) to fire and take other actions against local leaders and parties as well as to impose legislation in order to implement the peace agreement and more generally bring unity and reform to Bosnia“. In the sense of a legal qualification, this is an orthodox, but flawed view. As sufficiently widely known, at the Bonn conference PIC simply ‘welcome’ the decision by the High Representative to use his own powers broadly (as he deems fit, according to his own interpretation). In other words, the High Representative is a self-constituted institution that is created by its own interpretation of its own powers [4].

In a legal sense, nobody can stand above, or ‘supersede,’ the institution, not even the PIC, if we endorse the interpretation of the High Representative’s powers that the very High Representative endorsed when he decided to exercise his powers broadly (in mid-1997), and that the PIC endorsed when they ‘welcome’ the High Representative’s broad use of his own powers. Of course, the interpretation is, in a legal sense, indefensible, but it is exactly such an interpretation that both High Representative and the PIC decided to try in practice [5].Most importantly, under such an interpretation, the High Representative becomes a dictatorial figure, and BiH can in no way be deemed a democracy as long as such a figure plays a prominent part in its politics. However, like many other ‘interventionists’, Woehrel is prone to presenting a flawed view of PIC as a source of High Representative’s authority because, in such a view, the latter appears less authoritarian, or more democratic, than in the condition when we strictly adhere to legal facts including the fact that the PIC ‘welcome’ the decision by the High Representative to exercise his broad, dictatorial mandate. Also, in the second section, I will demonstrate that Woehrel’s presentation, in the part that addresses ‘the unity and reform of Bosnia’, suffers from another cognitive flaw.

Woehrel’s presentation is beset by another, comparatively worse fabrication of facts: this one concerns neither the pre- nor post-Dayton period taken longitudinally, but the current state of affairs; it aims to embody the key diagnosis of today’s key problem in BiH, or the core and key cause of its current trouble. The diagnosis is presented in the first sentence of the Summary of Woehrel’s report: “In recent years, many analysts have expressed concern that the international community’s efforts over the past 17 years to stabilize Bosnia and Herzegovina are failing. Milorad Dodik, president of the Republika Srpska (RS), one of the two semi-autonomous ‘entities’ within Bosnia, has obstructed efforts to make Bosnia’s central government more effective. He has repeatedly asserted the RS’s right to secede from Bosnia, although he has so far refrained from trying to make this threat a reality. Some ethnic Croat leaders in Bosnia have called for more autonomy for Croats within Bosnia, perhaps threatening a further fragmentation of the country“. In other words, Woehrel here presents Dodik as a key problem. Dodik is one who, in Woehrel’s view, aims to separate the RS from Bosnia, which also explains Dodik’s obstruction of the efforts to make Bosnia’s central government more effective. A further burden, or obstacle, comes from Croats who are simply inclined to contributing to ‘disintegration’ of BiH. Woehrel’s presentation also clearly implies that no problems come from the circle of Bosniak-Moslem politicians. The latter are constructive and eager to make the central government effective.

However, Woehrel misrepresents both Dodik’s and Croat politics in BiH. First, as to the latter, Woehrel passes in silence over the fact that, on two occasions, in 2006 and 2010, the Bosniak-Muslim population vote elected the Croat member of BiH Presidency, one of the worst cases of open discrimination against Croats of BiH to which the international community, including both the Office of High Representative and U.S., responded by shrugging their shoulders. Woehrel’s did not devote a single word to the fact that the current election rules, combined with the current institutional structure of BiH Federation including both legislative and executive, are de facto imposed by the international community, and that such rules directly violate the status of BiH Croats as, ideally, one of the three co-constituent peoples of BiH [6]. Hence, when some Croat representatives argue for the notion of a third entity within BiH, it is a rationally motivated move; it is a response to an unjust and imposed legal-political constellation that makes BiH non-viable, unfair, and non-multiethnic in the form in which it currently exists, not generally or abstractly [7].

The same applies to Woehrel’s presentation of Dodik’s quasi-obstruction: Dodik’s threats are rationally motivated – it is a fact that BiH in today’s legal-political form cannot survive, because it in the long run should not survive in the form of ‘international dictatorship.’ Additionally, it goes without saying that, unless a consensus is formed between the three parties/peoples on the shape of a future BiH, both secession of RS and the dissolution of BiH into three entities are equally legitimate options. Most importantly, Dodik never stated that the RS should secede from BiH in the condition of adherence to the original, Dayton-based powers of the RS and BiH, as those were specifically and precisely enumerated by the Dayton Annex 4. His reference to a referendum and secession should normally be coupled with the condition of a heavily centralized structure of BiH as imposed increasingly by the US and EU, in agreement with the Bosniak-Moslem political elite, with no foundation in the explicit wording of the Dayton Peace Agreement. This should be placed in comparison to Holbrooke’s statement, as reproduced even in his memoirs, that the Dayton constitutional blueprint as originally drafted, and offered for signature, is a draw of “two strong entities and one loose central government.” [8]

2. Coherence, relevance, and ‘blind spots’

Woehrel’s report is incoherent in many parts. Hence, having received and read this report, American congresspersons must have experienced a significant amount of confusion. For instance, how is it possible to claim, within the confines of a single research, that Tuđman’s Croatian regime had design on the Bosnian territory, and then, in the next sentence, to claim that the BiH referendum for independence was carried out predominantly by the BiH Bosniaks and Croats? Additionally, how is it possible to claim that Tuđman’s regime had design on the Bosnian territory, and then further claim that the road to the Dayton agreement was paved by the joint action of the Bosniak and the Croat/Croatian military forces?

However, with such historiographic incoherences put aside, it seems to me that those that concern the post-Dayton period of implementation of the Dayton peace frame are much more troubling. For instance, Woehrel accurately presents the nature of the Dayton constitutional structure for BiH: two strong entities, one loose central government, special parallel relations between the entities and the neighboring states. However, he then continues describing the interventions by the international community towards the strengthening of the central powers of BIH as nearly a natural phenomenon: as something that nearly goes without saying, even as something that ought to naturally and automatically continue into the future; in Woehrel’s narrative, we saw that the undesired obstruction is coming from Dodik and, to a lesser degree, also from the Croat politicians. But, if the original constitutional structure is as described by Woehrel, then Dodik’s, or Croat, policy is not a problematic part of the post-Dayton BiH; what is problematic is in fact the very policy of the international community, which, as Woehrel’s accurately points out, “[only] had the support of Bosniak politicians” (p. 3). [9]

However, in comparison to such incoherence, even a higher degree of importance should be attributed to some facts that Woehrel fails to mention despite their widely known significance for the process of the Dayton peace frame implementation: for instance, when he briefly explains the role of international community as a factor that “brings unity and reform to Bosnia,” an inattentive reader could think that the role can be reduced to an attempt to strengthen, or widen, the central powers of BiH; however, as a matter of historical factography, such role involved a much more serious attempt – to modify the institutional structure not only at the central, but also at the entity level; more importantly, it was an attempt to undermine, to the extent possible, the notion of ‘constituent peoples’ as put in the preamble to the Dayton Constitution. Those parts of a recent BiH history are simply eradicated from Woehrel’s report. For instance, the report contains no word on BiH Constitutional Court decision U 5/98-III, which was passed by a combined majority of foreign and Bosniak-Muslim judges at the court, and which set the foundation for a subsequent redesign of the post-Dayton BiH, both at the state and the entity level, to the disadvantage of the concept of ‘constituent peoples.’ [10] Also, perhaps predictably, Woehrel’s report contains no word on the 2005/6 attempt by High Representative Paddy Ashdown to initiate the process of forming of the BiH state police force contrary to the explicit wording of the relevant provisions of the Dayton constitution.

It is also interesting to note that, when referring to the US Vice-president Biden visit to BiH in May 2009 (p. 9), Woehrel makes no mention of the key elements of Biden’s speech; I think the cause is deliberate – those elements cannot be reconciled to the Dayton structure of BiH nor to the unproblematic elements of international consensus concerning the post-Dayton BiH. To remind: in his speech, Biden emphasized that “in BiH, as in the US, today’s majority may tomorrow become a minority,” and “we [U.S.A.] are your project.” [11] The former proposition cannot be reconciled to the status of Bosnia’s constituent people, post- or pre-Dayton; and the latter proposition by Biden implies that the USA is the only authority for the construction of post-Dayton BiH because, as Biden clearly suggested, the USA creates the BiH in its own likeness.[12]

Woehrel suppresses some further relevant facts concerning BiH: for instance, he explicitly refers to the so-called “April 2006 package of constitutional amendments” offered by the international community to Bosnian politicians; he simply states that the BiH politicians/leaders failed to adopt the package (p. 3); however, it is immediately clear that Woehrel fails to mention the key issue – the actors who were the key culprit of the negotiating fiasco; and the reason why he fails to mention those actors is probably in the fact that this cannot be harmonized with the key elements of his narrative. An inattentive reader will probably fill the blank by assuming that Dodik, or somebody from the RS, was the key culprit; this is not true as the process was undermined jointly by one Bosniak-Muslim (very pro-state and centralist-oriented) “Stranka za BiH” and one smaller Croat party from the BiH Federation, HDZ 1990.

Summarily, there is one key ‘blind spot’ in Woehrel’s presentation of the post-Dayton Bosnia:  he fails to consider the fact that the post-Dayton BiH is actually projected as a state formed by a federal constitutional arrangement, based on the concept of constituent peoples (i.e. a plurality of actors), and viable only on the basis of a consensus. Since the state is based on a federalist concept, it goes without saying that its preservation and functioning requires a balance between an ethnic autonomy, and a cooperation based on a parity-presentation of constituent peoples, on the one hand, and an integrative, state-making function, on the other: a consociational arrangement. Hence, it also goes without saying that the entire constitutional arrangement on which the BiH is based includes both centrifugal and centripetal institutional elements; hence, one should not decide to simply rank higher the centripetal tendency as somehow more valuable, or more important, to the smooth functioning of the post-Dayton BiH.

It is exactly this attitude of ‘the higher ranking of centripetal tendency’ that Woehrel, through his research, attempts to smuggle to the American congressmen and –women. And it is exactly due to the attitude that Woehrel’s research fails to answer a key question that is otherwise strongly suggested, though not explicitly posed, even by his own research: if the viable change to the BiH could have been brought about only by an internal consensus (concerning, for instance, a fully revised post-Dayton constitution to create fully functioning state-institutions), and if such a change had not been brought about yet, how can one explain the motivation behind the international interventions at the time those were occurring, especially having in mind the fact that, as Woehrel too pointed out, two of the three constituent peoples opposed those interventions? How can one imagine that one can create a state on another person’s behalf, and then, 17 years later, when one realized that this was an impossible task, to stop at the extremely complicated and inefficient structure and, which is even more paradoxical, demand from the local actors to continue negotiating a new structure, or structures, as if nothing happened in the meantime? Woehrel’s open suggestion that the pointing to Milorad Dodik as an alleged ‘key source of the obstruction’ should help one formulate an answer to the question is in direct contravention to all the results of Woehrel’s own research. Contrary to Woehrel, it is obvious that the key members of the Peace Implementation Council, that is, the international community including primarily USA and the key EU members have preserved, and even worsened, instability of BiH, i.e. they helped BiH to continue the state of war by other means [13].

3. Political analysis, myths, and Gestalt-effects

Judging from the report Woehrel offered to U.S. Congress, the answer to the question “What does U.S. Congress know about BiH?” should read as follows: “whatever it seems to ‘know,’ it would be better if it knew nothing.” Woehrel gave to the congress an inaccurate, incoherent, and very incomplete picture of BiH. It follows from this that, based on such a picture, it is impossible to formulate a coherent, purposeful, and potentially successful foreign political initiative.

Perhaps most importantly, Woehrel’s report fails to address the factor that every serious political analysis ought to address: political goals, ideas, and attitudes or projects, of the local political actors. The key political actors are presented by Woehrel as simple carriers of likes and dislikes, and nothing else; but, without a more detailed, and more realistic reference to the actors’ political ideas and arguments, it is, of course, impossible to explain the nature of the conflict within BiH or the true character of its internal political relations; furthermore, it is impossible to explain the sense in which the actors’ ideas and arguments support, or undermine, the current post-Dayton constitution of BiH.

Woehrel’s narrative of BiH resembles a vision of a giant who has been watching a fly without the help of a microscope. It seems that the giant simply put down in writing some impressions of a possible meaning and appearance of the fly, without actually looking into its internal structure. Also, in the writing, the fly is somewhat enlarged not by a microscopic vision, but by the fly’s positioning within a wider context formed by its neighbourhood and international community, including primarily the EU and NATO. But, whatever metaphor of the Woehrel’s narrative we choose, it is clear that the latter has the character not of a substantiated, evidence-based political analysis, but of a myth.

For quite some time now, the American dominant narrative of BiH manifests the features of a myth, not of a fact-based or realistic image. As I demonstrated elsewhere, it seems that the creators of American narrative of BiH, starting with the beginning of political crisis in the early 1990s, are not interested in BiH as such: they seem interested in it only to the extent it enables them, or gives them an excuse, to tell a story about America, and especially to the extent it can help them to recover or improve America’s international reputation primarily in a symbolic sense [14]. In fact, Woehrel repeats the rhetorical strategy that we find in Holbrooke and that can be illustrated especially by Holbrooke’s political qualification of Izetbegovic: in his memoirs, Holbrooke presents Izetbegovic as a political actor without inherent political goals; Izetbegović is framed simply as a victim who fought for a sheer survival. According to Holbrooke, this explains why ‘Bosniak-Muslim politicians’ failed to formulate a coherent negotiating strategy during the Bosnian war, and especially why they failed to formulate clearly their political goals – the kind of BiH they aim for in a political sense [15]. However, today we know that Holbrooke was wrong, that he painted Izetbegovic in much brighter colours probably due to his need to emphasize the positive nature of American connection with the Muslim element in BiH. This was probably due to the American need to improve its own public image abroad, not due to some inherent overlap between American and BiH Muslim policy in Bosnia. In other words, compared to Izetbegovic, a real political actor, Holbrooke’s presentation is arbitrary, unfounded, or fictional.[16]

Thus one should not be surprised to find in Woehrel a considerable degree of myth-making as a part of political analysis; we find old themes propagated and digested hundreds of times: in Woehrel’s narrative, “Bosniak-Muslim political element” has no negative political attributes or properties; in contrast to the element, the tendency to a destructive, or problematic, political conduct, is attributed steadily to either Serb or a Croat element, with Dodik serving as a convenient current personification of the former. Having in mind that the silent revision of the Dayton constitution by the international community very unequivocally diminished, or weakened, the constitutional position of the BiH Croats as one of the three officially constituent peoples under the Dayton, such Woehrel’s attribution means adding insult to injury.

Also, Woehrel makes an attempt to position his narrative within the frame of the story on “the international, enlightenment- or modernity-spreading missionaries of democracy,” who are temporarily stalled, or prevented, by a barbaric element. Such a frame, of course, has no anchor in political reality, and the very basic, compromise-based constitutional structure of BiH poses an insurmountable obstacle to Woehrel’s attempt. Now, since obviously Woehrel’s analytical frame is not motivated by political reality, we have the right to raise the issue of the frame’s true motivation. It is clear that the frame is a myth, not a well-argued or evidence-based description or diagnosis; but, what is the motivational structure behind the myth itself?

To put it briefly: due to its key or foundational narratives that are built into the collective image of the nation-making, America views itself as an unjustly expelled outcast from ‘the Old World’ that is frequently identified with Europe; it is a victim of some ancient prejudice who returns to the world not in the shape of an avenger, but of a redeemer. It recovers justice and defends the weak and the oppressed, and also radically alters political reality as a part of the process. Hence, the American narrative typically revolves around very dramatic political relations marked by what is considered unequivocally evil and unequivocally good element. In such a sense, American projection of such a narrative into BiH [17] is enabled by a Gestalt-effect: on maps, BiH is normally depicted as an inverted triangle surrounded by two states that, through their BiH-based co-nationals, seem to penetrate the triangle creating an impression of both external and internal threat. The relations within BiH may be perfect, but the Gestalt-effect is likely to remain active – BiH appears as a fully surrounded, perfect geometrical shape that is threatened by disintegration or shrinking.

It is into such a space that America fictively projects its need to intervene, to defend (and either recover or strengthen) a weak, surrounded and oppressed, nation from some collective prejudice or a backward idea of homogenous nation-states or ethnic/collective rights [18]. Now, have in mind that the narrative is not rational – even when we imagine that BiH is a mono-ethnic state, populated by a single nation, the Gestalt-effect is likely to persist. However, it seems that America actively cultivates the need for exactly such a kind of narrative; and that it acted and continues acting in BiH in light of such a narrative regardless of the actual outcome of the acting. It needs this vision of two strong Goliaths and a single David, three figures that unambiguously define the role for America in the part of the world. It seems that this vision, not a reliable and empirically exhaustive study, is what lies at the foundation of Woehrel’s narrative of BiH. Let us hope that, opposing Woehrel, at least some U.S. congresspersons will recall the idea that contemporary states ought to be based on constitutions, not on mythological apparitions from the Old Testament.

*Dražen Pehar has a PhD in politics and international relations from Keele University (SPIRE 2006), holds an assistant professorship (BiH) in the philosophy of law and in politics with sociology. Dražen is a DiploFoundation Associate, and previously served as Chief of Staff to the BiH Federation President (1996) and as a media analyst to the OHR (1999/2000). Dražen is also part of the Institute for Social and Political Research (IDPI), a member of the Global Coalition for Conflict Transformation

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of TransConflict.

Notes:  

  1. For a more detailed presentation, see Pehar, D. (2011), Alija Izetbegović and the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina (Mostar: HKD Napredak, bilingual edition):  http://www.academia.edu/853509/Alija_Izetbegovic_and_the_war_in_Bosnia-Herzegovina_2011_ (accessed 30 December 2016)
  2. See also De Krnjevic-Miskovic, Damjan (2003), „Obituary: Alija Izetbegovic, 1925-2003“, National Interest (22. October); http://nationalinterest.org/article/obituary-alija-izetbegovic-1925-2003-2458 (accessed 30 December 2016)
  3. Pehar (2011, 143-151)
  4. For more detail, see Pehar D. (2014a), „Four reflections on the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina“ (Part 1 and 2), TransConflict, October 7 and 8: http://www.transconflict.com/2014/10/four-reflections-high-representative-bosnia-herzegovina-710/ and http://www.transconflict.com/2014/10/four-reflections-high-representative-bosnia-herzegovina-part-two-810/ (accessed 30 December 2016)
  5. Ibid.
  6. For my detailed argumentation, see Pehar D. (2014b), „Democracy, democratic representation, and constitutional logic of ethnic electoral units in Bosnia-Herzegovina;“ IDPI Mostar, September 15: http://www.en.idpi.ba/democracy-democratic-representation-and-constitutional-logic-of-ethnic-electoral-units-in-bosnia-herzegovina/ (accessed 31 December 2016); see also Vukoja I. (2014), „Elections as a form of discrimination against Croats in Bosnia-Herzegovina“ TransConflict, 13 October (trans. Drazen Pehar): http://www.transconflict.com/2014/10/elections-form-discrimination-croats-bosnia-herzegovina-130/ (accessed 31 December 2016)
  7. Even a worse case of discrimination was committed in 2011, when a number of Bosniak-Muslim parties, with a moderate support of small and non-representative Croat parties, excluding HDZ and HDZ 1990, formed so-called ‘Platforma Government’; this was done through an open coup-d’etat, that is, by direct violation of the constitutional provisions; even the High Representative, by a motion against the BiH Election Commission, helped in the process in direct contravention to the democratic ethos and the rule of law in BiH.
  8. Holbrooke, R. (1999), To End a War, New York: The Modern Library, rev.ed., pp. 96-97
  9. For more detail, see Pehar, D. (2014c), „Theory of dediscoursification and implementation of Dayton peace as a continuation of the state of war,“ Mostar, IDPI, 4 November: http://www.en.idpi.ba/dediscoursification/ (accessed 31 December 2016)
  10. For a detailed argument, see Pehar, D. (2016), „U 5/98-III: why it is doomed from an interpretive point of view“ (parts 1 and 2); TransConflict, 29 September and 4 October: http://www.transconflict.com/2016/09/u-598-iii-why-it-is-doomed-from-an-interpretive-point-of-view-part-1-299/ and http://www.transconflict.com/2016/10/u-598-iii-why-it-is-doomed-from-an-interpretive-point-of-view-part-2-410/ (accessed 31 December 2016)
  11. Transcript of Biden’s speech as broadcast by the BiH TV ( author’s private record; May 2009)
  12. For my more extensive analysis of American foreign policy vis-a-vis BiH, see Pehar, D. (2014d), „On some disconcerting aspects of American foreign policy towards Bosnia-Herzegovina;“ IDPI Mostar, and Journal Status (Mostar) no. 17 (Croatian version): http://www.academia.edu/7039076/On_some_disconcerting_aspects_of_American_foreign_policy_towards_Bosnia-Herzegovina_2014_ (accessed 31 December 2016)
  13. See also Pehar (2014c)
  14. For more detail, see Pehar (2014d)
  15. Holbrooke (1999, 97)
  16. For a very important detail, see Pehar (2011, 139); I analyze Holbrooke’s presentation of Izetbegović in more detail in Pehar, D. (2016), „Chamberlain, Izetbegović, and Arab-Israeli post-242 negotiators – dediscoursifier’s special figures,“ TransConflict, 18 March: http://www.transconflict.com/2016/03/chamberlain-izetbegovic-and-arab-israeli-post-242-negotiators-dediscoursifiers-special-figures-183/ (accessed 31 December 2016)
  17. See also a war-time UN-mediator to BiH Thorvald Stoltenberg’s interview to Radio Free Europe from April 2012: “UN envoy recalls time when being anti-Serb was ‘preferable’; “http://www.b92.net/eng/news/world.php?yyyy=2012&mm=04&dd=19&nav_id=79850 (accessed 31 December 2016
  18. For a similar approach, see Kostić, R. (2013), „American nation-building abroad: exceptional powers, broken promises, and the making of ‘Bosnia’“, in: Eriksson, M., Kostić R. (2013), Mediation and Liberal Peacebuilding: Peace from the Ashes of War?, London and New York: Routledge, pp. 22-39

Mom’s Blood Pressure Before Pregnancy May Be Linked To Babies’ Sex

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A new paper published in the American Journal of Hypertension suggests that a woman’s blood pressure before pregnancy is related to her likelihood of giving birth to a boy or girl.

The possibility of predicting the sex of the baby in early pregnancy has long been a topic of public fascination, spawning numerous theories of maternal characteristics associated with the presence of a male or female fetus, none of which has been conclusively supported by robust scientific evidence.

These observations raise the possibility that there may be underlying differences that relate to a woman’s likelihood of sex-specific fetal loss and hence her likelihood of delivering a boy or girl. However, little is known about such factors in humans.

Researchers here established a unique pre-conception cohort consisting of young women who were planning to have a pregnancy in the near future and used the model to evaluate the relationship between maternal pre-pregnancy health and the sex of the baby.

Participants underwent baseline medical assessment at recruitment and then, whenever they subsequently became pregnant, were followed across the pregnancy up to delivery through their clinical care.

Beginning in February 2009, researchers led by Dr. Ravi Retnakaran, endocrinologist at Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto, and an investigator with the Lunendfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, recruited 3375 women in Liuyang, China. Of these, 1692 women were assessed for blood pressure, cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose. After the exclusion of 281 women who were potentially pregnant at their baseline assessment based on back-dating of the length of gestation at delivery, the study population for the analysis consisted of 1411 women who were assessed at median 26.3 weeks before pregnancy

Their pregnancies resulted in the delivery of 739 boys and 672 girls. After adjustment for age, education, smoking, BMI, waist, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose, mean adjusted systolic blood pressure before pregnancy was found to be higher in women who subsequently had a boy than in those who delivered a girl (106.0 vs. 103.3 mm Hg). Indeed, higher maternal blood pressure before pregnancy emerged as an independent predictor of subsequently delivering a boy.

According to Retnakaran, this “suggests that a woman’s blood pressure before pregnancy is a previously unrecognized factor that is associated with her likelihood of delivering a boy or a girl. This novel insight may hold implications for both reproductive planning and our understanding of the fundamental mechanisms underlying the sex ratio in humans.”

Morocco Bans The Burqa – OpEd

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The Moroccan authorities have invoked security reasons to prohibiting the burqa, which is rarely worn by Moroccan women who prefer the hijab.

Moroccan authorities have prohibited the manufacture and sale of burqas for security reasons. The measure appears to be motivated by security concerns, where “bandits have repeatedly used this garment to perpetrate their crimes,” local media reports say.

Burqa is a traditionally integral Muslim veil to Afghani women of the Pashtun tribes. It is a long piece of clothing, blue or brown, completely covers the head and body with a cloth grid concealing the eyes.

According to the local press, le ministère de l’intérieur issued a communication to its agents in charge of business in towns, urging them not to allow the manufacture and marketing of burqas as of this week. No official announcement or public communication on the subject has however been made by the ministry.

On 09 January 2017, interior agents conducted “campaigns to raise awareness among traders” in Casablanca, the country’s economic capital, “to inform them of thie new decision of banning the burqa”, according to the website Media 24.

Official documents show that Moroccan authorities ordered traders in the north and the south of the country to stop making and selling Afghani burqas and to liquidate their stock within 48 hours.

The burqa remains an extremely marginal phenomenon in Morocco, a country torn between modernity and conservatism, whose king, Mohammed VI, is the champion of the so-called “moderate Islam”.

An almost similar piece of cloth, called niqab, remains a traditional clothing in the Moroccan society. The difference between the niqab and hijab is fundamental: While the niqab almost completely covers the head except for the eyes, hijab is a veil that only covers the hair.

In Morocco, niqab, an integral veil that reveals only the eyes, is worn by certain women, especially in Salafist circles in conservative regions in the north of the country and small towns. Thus, while responses and reactions to the ban of burqa have been limited so far, Salafists have been increasingly concerned about the scope of this decision and its probable extension to the niqab.

Ali Anouzla, a Moroccan journalist, said on his Facebook page as reported by The New York Times: “I am against the culture of banning in principle, but just to be clear, the Interior Ministry didn’t ban the hijab or niqab but banned the burqa, and the burqa isn’t part of Morocco’s culture.”

A representative of the Morocco Observatory for Human Development considered the ban of burqa a “random decision and an assault on women’s freedom of expression”.

Nuzha Saqali, a former minister for Family and Social Development, welcomed the ban and described it as “an important step in the fight against religious extremism”.

This article appeared in Mashreq Politics and Culture Journal.

Misleading Information On Demonetization In India – OpEd

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Ever since India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the demonetization of high value currency, there have been repeated reports that the Indian economy has slowed down considerably.

While the government has pointed out that Rabi crop sowing has not slowed down and has only increased in the post demonetization period to highlight the fact that demonetization has no negative fundamental impact on growth and government has also pointed out that any slow down in other sectors are only temporary and not alarming, the media reports of note ban putting brake on the economy is persisting.

Misleading information

The latest news in the media is that the two wheeler, passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle sales have slumped and declined due to the note ban. Further, it is said that there has been revenue loss to the real estate industry to the level of around Rs.22600 cr. and the notional loss on stamp duty for the state governments is Rs.1200 Cr. The sales volume and launches of new projects have fallen by 23%.

The fact is that the demonetization only resulted in the withdrawal of high value currency notes. Transactions by cheque, bank transfers, credit/debit cards have continued without change.

The price of two wheelers and four wheelers are in the range of Rupees one lakh and above and there is no reason why such transactions should slow down because of demonetization. Obviously, this indicates that most of such transactions in the pre demonetization period have been taking place by cash (black money) and putting a brake on black money, hawala money and counterfeit notes have resulted in slow down in the sale of the automobiles.

The above reason is also applicable for the slow down in the real estate sector. It is very well known that in the last several years, most of the black money is dumped in the real estate by the tax evaders and black money holders, as a result of which the price of real estate has gone up by leaps and bounds, making it impossible for the people in the lower and lower middle income group to fulfill their dream of buying and owning a house.

Dr. Manmohan Singh’s misconception

Since demonetization on 8th November, 2016, some of the discretionary spending items such as lavish weddings have been impacted because a lot of black money is used for such expenses. The industries and other commercial sector, which are dependent for their business on spending in such highly discretionary items have been impacted, which is a short term happening.

The misleading campaign is that drop in such discretionary spending will lead to economic shock and contraction as growth in consumer consumption is a significant driver of economic growth. The former Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, who should know better, has said that worst things are yet to happen in the country due to demonetization.

Should India allow parallel economy to persist?

Now, the question arises as to whether India should allow a parallel economy and growth based on ill-gained and tax-evaded money, which is at the cost of genuine tax payers and quality growth of he economy and the country?

This is precisely the objective of demonetization to reduce the role of black money in the economy and if the auto sales and real estate growth have really gone down after the demonetization shock, it only shows that the impact of black money in the economy has been considerably reduced and demonetization has a positive impact and is providing the expected results.

The recent demonetization had brought to light how the tax evaders had worked in connivance with corrupt officials to defeat the very process of clean up of the monetary system & tax governance .

Transparency in economic activity is the need of the day

Unmindful of the misleading information on demonetization being spread by some quarters and widely publicized in the media, Modi government should take stern action against the corrupt activities ruthlessly.

Of course, it has become difficult to enforce tax discipline in the country, since the legal system in India is not conducive for early disposal of cases and this again emboldens the corrupt elements. Had only the judicial system is more effective , many of the today’s black money holders and corrupt persons would have already been put behind bars.

With the black money largely gone, the economy will be back on healthy growth path soon when the transparent dealings would inevitably happen.

Iran: Two Young Girls Arrested For Riding Motorcycle

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Two young girls were arrested for the ‘crime’ of riding a motorbike in Dezful (Southern Iran), according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

“In the absence of State Security Forces, two ‘norm-breaking girls’ exploited the opportunity in Boostan Jangali (a natural park) and committed an action against revolutionary norms and values by riding a motorcycle,” stated Colonel Ali Elhami, the commander of city of Dezful State Security Force.

Elhami described the motor biking of the two girls as an obscene and despicable act and said: “this manifested the utmost denunciation of religious norms by the two girls and caused serious torment and anxiety among city officials.”

“The State Security Force carried out an extensive investigation and finally managed to find, arrest, and deliver them to judiciary officials,” Elhami added.

Relatedly, on January 4, a Judiciary official announced that six people were arrested in Tabriz (northwest Iran) in connection with modeling and cyberspace crimes.

Additionally, the state-run News agency, Fars, affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards, reported on Dec 27, 2016 that 25 people including an actor and an author of satirical programs were arrested in Tehran after the police and security forces raided a party in the capital city.

Meet HBO’s ‘The Young Pope’– OpEd

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Most normal men and women will be watching the Packers-Cowboys game on Sunday. Owing to the fact that Monday is a federal holiday, the party goers will have had their fill of beer by the time the game ends around 8:00 p.m. This guarantees that none will tune into HBO’s “The Young Pope” at 9:00 p.m.

This is HBO’s first mistake: real men and women watch football and drink beer—they don’t get their jollies watching an ideologically driven flick about some tortured pope who has “power-mad dreams.” But perhaps I am too harsh: the target audience never threw a football, much less watched a game on TV.

The man behind this fictional series is Paolo Sorrentino. Pope Pius XIII’s real name, viewers learn, is not Leonard Belardo—it’s Lenny Belardo. His hip name corresponds with his habit of chain smoking and drinking diet soda. But the Brooklynite (he is America’s first pope) also has a few flaws.

According to TV Guide Magazine, Pope Pius is “cruel, deceptive and a bit of an ass.” Variety says he can be “cruel, vindictive, surprisingly compassionate, and justifiably paranoid.” Breitbart says the pope comes across as “a lustful (possibly bisexual) narcissist.” The Hollywood Reporter calls him “arrogant, whimsical and hilariously destructive,” a pontiff who “comes across as borderline anti-Christ.” Oh, yes, “he personally doesn’t believe in God.”

Indiewire.com praises Sorrentino for his devilish abilities. “Anyone angry with Lenny is asked to shift their [sic] ire toward the church.” Mission accomplished: it’s not the tormented pope who is the problem, it’s his lousy church.

What does Sorrentino have against the Church? An atheist, he bemoans it’s structure. “The Vatican is a state with a vertical power structure.” Perhaps this genius can tell us which nation-state has a horizontal power structure.

The pope’s advisor, Cardinal Michael Spencer, is played by James Cromwell. The character he plays has “completely forgott[en] the purpose for which Christ founded the church.” This explains why he plays his role so effortlessly.

Cromwell notes that “there are sequences about pedophilia in America,” and “the whole homosexual issue.” This suggests bad editing: there is no need to treat these matters as separate issues—in real life, homosexual priests raped the boys, not pedophiles (sex with prepubescent males account for less than 5 percent of the abuse cases.)

In an interview with the Hollywood Reporter, Cromwell tells us how horrible the Catholic Church in America is for opposing abortion. He boasts that abortion is not a divisive issue in Europe. He’s right. There is also little debate there anymore about putting to death the depressed, the handicapped, the sick, and the elderly, increasingly without their consent.

So, guys and girls, keep the brews flowing on Sunday, unless, of course, you want to watch a chain-smoking, bit of an ass, borderline anti-Christ, possibly bisexual, cruel, vindictive, paranoid pope who doesn’t believe in God. This should go over big with the Meryl Streep gang.

Contact Quentin Schaffer, executive VP, HBO Communications:
Quentin.Schaffer@hbo.com

Trump Presidency Could Herald Reality Check On ‘Liberal’ Media – OpEd

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By Kalinga Seneviratne

Donald Trump calls the so-called ‘liberal media’ the “bad guys” and since he was elected President two months ago – in fact even before that with the Brexit vote in June 2016 – the “Liberals” in the West have been chest-beating complaining about misleading social media messages to unfairness of the electoral systems as their preferred candidates or platforms are defeated by grassroots voter revolts.

It is interesting that the ‘liberal’ media has made such a big issue of Trump having lost the popular vote but winning the Presidency, without looking at how the so-called Westminster system of democracy, which many former British colonies have inherited, often reflects such results as it is grounded on an electorate based first-past-the-post system not dissimilar to the U.S. Electoral College system.

Thus, in Australia parties that did not garner a majority of the national popular vote have often led federal and state governments. In 2011 in Singapore the governing party won over 90 percent of the seats in parliament with a national vote share of only 60 percent. At the last national elections in Malaysia, the ruling party was returned to power after having lost the national popular vote. There are many such examples around the world.

The Liberals have always taken the high moral ground arguing that the popular verdict under the ‘one person one vote’ principle need to be respected and elected rulers have to listen to the people, but it seems they accept an election result only if that goes their way.

The pillar of the “conservative” media establishment and Fox News boss, Rupert Murdoch told a U.S. university audience a few years ago when a student asked about bias of Fox News that the rest of the media has a “liberal bias (and) we give the other side of the story”. The U.S. presidential election and the aftermath of Trump’s victory has demonstrated it very clearly.

Over the past decade in particular, the liberals have also mastered new media technology to design and conduct campaigns to overthrow legitimately elected governments they don’t like under the guise of human rights and democracy movements. The man who has promoted and funded such Liberal causes from colour revolutions in Europe, the Arab Spring and many anti-government campaigns in Asia with billions of his own money – what some may say is “ill-gotten” wealth – is now warning that the “Open Societies” he wanted to establish are falling apart.

In a New Year opinion piece distributed around the world by Project Syndicate, the hedge fund manager George Soros lamented, “open societies are in crisis, and various forms of closed societies – from fascist dictatorships to mafia states – are on the rise”. And he asked in dismay, “how could this happen?”

“The only explanation I can find is that elected leaders failed to meet voters’ legitimate expectations and aspirations and that this failure led electorates to become disenchanted with the prevailing versions of democracy and capitalism,” he added in answering his own question. “Quite simply, many people felt that the elites had stolen their democracy.”

This view was manifested in the strong emotions raised by both Trump and Bernie Sanders (during his Democratic primary campaign) among supporters when the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement was mentioned. As Economics Professor Jomo Kwame Sundaram, a former UN Assistant Secretary for Economic Development argued in a recent commentary, almost a million jobs may have been shed in the U.S. as a result of its implementation.

“While most politically influential U.S, corporation would do well from the TPP due to strengthened intellectual property rights (IPR) and investor-state dispute settlement mechanisms, U.S. workers would generally not.” he argued. “Such protectionism would raise the price of protected items such as pharmaceutical drugs.”

Interestingly, a recent report in the Russian Television (RT) channel indicated that Sanders has praised Trump’s recent comments on pharmaceutical industry and hinted that he may cooperate with the new President to achieve reforms in the U.S. drug policy.

“Our drug industry has been disastrous,” Trump told reporters during his press conference on January 11, that went largely unreported in the U.S. media. He stressed the need to increase manufacturing of drugs in the U.S. arguing that he would create “new bidding procedures for the drug industry, because they’re getting away with murder”.

“I’ve been saying that for years. Pharma does get away with murder. Literally murder. People die because they can’t get the prescription drugs they need,” Sanders was reported to have said in an interview with Huffington Post.

The Liberal media while promoting human rights and democracy has shielded away from focusing on such issues. Rather they would talk about freedom of speech or multiparty democracy, but, not about how the democratically elected leaders should shield their populations from greedy corporations like pharmaceutical companies.

While they point fingers at so-called “dictatorial” leaders in non-Western countries accusing them of corruption, neither the media nor the various non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Soros and other western ”donors” fund question the role of banks or business immigration policies in western countries (such as Australia and Canada) that encourage these “corrupt’ leaders to park their ill-gotten money in the respective countries. It is such double standards that has discredited the liberal message.

Soros argues that the European Union (EU) right from its inception has been seen as an embodiment of an Open Society – an association of democratic states – but it has unraveled since the economic crisis of 2008 “when debtors had difficulties in meeting their obligations and the creditors set the conditions that the debtors had to obey”. What he did not say is that the States bailed out the creditors (banks) which created huge resentment among the grassroots people both in Europe and the U.S.

Warning that the EU faces disintegration following the Brexit and recent Italian election vote and upcoming elections this year in France, Germany and Netherlands, Soros says “democracy is now in crisis”.

Soros believes that the big winner would be Russian President Vladimir Putin. “At first, he tried to control social media. Then, in a brilliant move, he exploited social media companies’ business model to spread misinformation and fake news, disorienting electorates and destabilizing democracies. That is how he helped Trump get elected,” he argued.

But, this is exactly what Soros and his friends have been doing, funding NGOs in many countries to exploit social media. In November 2016 the Malaysian government accused his organization of funding local “pro-democracy” group Bersih to do the same, and in August 2016 the Thai government accused his foundation of funding the anti-government social media outfit Prachathai to spread “false news” about the military regime.

What the NGOs funded by the Soros Foundation across the world have been doing to discredit leaders and governments they don’t like is to create news stories on human rights violations, corruption and so on, and feed off each other using these contents and buzz words. These websites refer to each other’s contents creating a social media echo chamber of Facebook “likes” and Twitter hashtags, which then land in mainstream media outlets sympathetic to their viewpoint.

The irony of all this is that in December when Soros and Bill Gates were found to be funding a Fake News “detector” on Faceboook it was the turn of the conservatives to cry foul. They accused Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg of colluding to censor Facebook of conservative dissent. Well, the ideological battles have just begun.

New UN Chief Guterres Takes Step To Build And Sustain Peace – Analysis

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By Ramesh Jaura

Within days of taking up the post of the United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres has urged the influential Security Council to undertake new, strengthened efforts to build and sustain peace ranging from prevention, conflict resolution and peacekeeping to peacebuilding and sustainable development.

Supporting Guterres, Sweden’s Foreign Minister and Security Council President for January, Margot Wallström emphasized that a close and proactive working relationship between the Council and the Secretary-General was the cornerstone of the Organization’s ability to deliver lasting peace and security.

In an impassioned debate on January 10 on “Conflict prevention and sustaining peace”, Wallström pointed out that in 2016, the urgent need for “a global commitment to multilateral solutions to conflict and to collaborative security had been exposed”.

“Can we afford an ever-growing list of crises slipping into violent conflict and needless human misery?”, she asked, stressing that investing in prevention was not only morally right, but also “the smart, economically sound and sustainable thing to do”.

It required addressing the root causes of conflict and instability before they reached the front pages or the Council’s agenda. “We have the tools. What we need now is a new political consensus in support of prevention,” she declared.

Sweden’s Foreign Minister highlighted the priority actions, which included the need to make prevention a priority for the entire United Nations system, and to ensure that the Organization worked closely with other international, regional and sub-regional actors. Furthermore, it was critical to improve the capacity of the UN to recognize and address the root causes and drivers of conflict.

She also emphasized the need to harness the capacity of women to create sustainable peace through inclusive processes, and to recognize that there could be no humanitarian solution for a political crisis.

In his first address to the Security Council since taking office on January 1, the new Secretary-General said that the UN must fully deliver on the promise of its Charter to “save succeeding generations from the scourge of war”. The Organization had been established to prevent war by binding the international community in a rules-based international order.

“Today, that order is under grave threat,” Guterres stressed, noting that millions of people in crisis looked to the Security Council to preserve global stability and to protect them from harm.

However, the enormous human and economic cost of conflicts around the world showed how complex and challenging that was. It was unfortunate that the international community spent far more time and resources responding to crises rather than preventing them.

While the causes of crisis were deeply interlinked, the UN response remained fragmented, he said. The interconnected nature of today’s crises required the international community to connect global efforts for peace and security, sustainable development and human rights, not just in words, but also in practice.

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the General Assembly and Security Council resolutions on sustaining peace demonstrated strong intergovernmental support for an integrated approach. The challenge now was to make corresponding changes to our culture, strategy, structures and operations.

“We must rebalance our approach to peace and security,” Guterres said. For decades, the focus had been largely on responding to conflict. In the future, the international community must do far more to prevent war and sustain peace, he said, stressing that the reforms he was setting in motion aimed to achieve that.

“I have started with the decision-making processes in the Secretariat,” he said, noting that the newly established Executive Committee would increase the ability to integrate all pillars of the United Nations under a common vision for action.

Also, he said, he had appointed a Special Adviser on Policy, whose main task would be to map the prevention capacities of the United Nations system and to bring them together into an integrated platform for early detection and action.

That would enable the Organization to link the reform of the peace and security architecture with the reform of the United Nations development system, while respecting the competence of the Security Council and the General Assembly.

“The primary work of conflict prevention lies with Member States,” he continued, stressing that the entire United Nations system must be ready to help Governments implement the Sustainable Development Goals.

As societies became multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multicultural, the international community needed greater political, cultural and economic investments in inclusivity and cohesion, so that people could appreciate the benefits of diversity rather than perceiving it as a threat.

All groups needed to see that their individual identities were respected, while feeling that they belonged as valued members of the community as a whole. Civil society, to that end, had a role to play in raising the alarm when that respect was threatened or lost.

He went on to emphasize the need for a surge in diplomacy, in partnership with regional organizations. “We will launch an initiative to enhance our mediation capacity, both at United Nations Headquarters and in the field, and to support regional and national mediation efforts,” he said, expressing readiness to support the Security Council through the use of his good offices and his personal engagement.

“Too many prevention opportunities have been lost because Member States mistrusted each other’s motives, and because of concerns over national sovereignty,” he said, stressing that such concerns were understandable, in a world where power was unequal and principles had sometimes been applied selectively. Prevention should never be used to serve other political goals.

On the contrary, prevention was best served by strong sovereign States, acting for the good of their people. “In taking preventive action, we need to avoid double standards,” he underlined, adding that preventive action was essential to avert mass atrocities or grave abuses of human rights.

International cooperation for prevention, and particularly translating early warning into early action, depended on trust between Member States, and in their relations with the United Nations, Guterres said. He stood ready to foster a more trusting relationship and to improve communications with the Council, with consistency, candour and transparency.

Disagreements about the past could not be allowed to prevent the international community from acting today. On the contrary, the international community needed to demonstrate leadership, and strengthen the credibility and authority of the United Nations, by putting peace first. “Ending the boundless human suffering and the wanton waste of resources generated by conflict is in everyone’s interests,” he stressed.

“War is never inevitable. It is always a matter of choice: the choice to exclude, to discriminate, to marginalize, to resort to violence,” he said, noting that, by restoring trust between Governments and their citizens and amongst Member States, the international community could prevent and avoid conflict.

However, peace, too, was never inevitable. It was the result of difficult decisions, hard work and compromise. “If we live up to our responsibilities, we will save lives, reduce suffering and give hope to millions,” he concluded.

“People are paying too high a price. You, the Member States, are paying too high a price. We need a whole new approach,” he declared.

The man calling for a whole new approach was the Prime Minister of Portugal from 1995 to 2002 and Secretary-General of the country’s Socialist Party from 1992 to 2002. He served as the President of Socialist International from 1999 to 2005. In the following ten years, he headed the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR.

Parts of his remarks to the Security Council echoed some of the comments by Nobel Laureate Willy Brandt – then West German Chancellor – who was Socialist International’s President from 1976 to 1992.

In famous remarks, Brandt said: “Peace is not everything, but without peace, everything is nothing.” – “Peace is something more than the absence of war, although some nations would be thankful for that alone today. A durable and equitable peace system requires equal development opportunities for all nations.” – “Peace, like freedom, is no original state which existed from the start; we shall have to make it, in the truest sense of the word.”

The West German leader played an important role in supporting the Portuguese Socialist Party and Mário Soares, former Portuguese Prime Minister (1976 to 1978) and Portuguese President (1986 to 1996) and who died at 92 in Lisbon on January 7.

Guterres said that his mentor’s “legacy goes far beyond Portugal”. Not only because he was responsible for Portugal’s full integration into the international community, “but also because his commitment to freedom and democracy make him one of those rare political leaders of true European and global stature”.


Arabica Coffee Genome Sequenced

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The first public genome sequence for Coffea arabica, the species responsible for more than 70 percent of global coffee production, was released today by researchers at the University of California, Davis.

Funding for the sequencing was provided by Suntory group, an international food and beverage company based in Tokyo.

Now available for immediate use by scientists and plant breeders around the world, the new genome sequence has been posted to Phytozome.net, the public database for comparative plant genomics coordinated by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Joint Genome Institute.

Details of the sequence will be presented Sunday, Jan. 15, at the Plant and Animal Genome Conference in San Diego.

Sequencing of the C. arabica genome is particularly meaningful for California, where coffee plants are being grown commercially for the first time in the continental United States and a specialty-coffee industry is emerging.

“This new genome sequence for Coffea arabica contains information crucial for developing high-quality, disease-resistant coffee varieties that can adapt to the climate changes that are expected to threaten global coffee production in the next 30 years,” said Juan Medrano, a geneticist in the UC Davis College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences and co-researcher on the sequencing effort.

“We hope that the C. arabica sequence will eventually benefit everyone involved with coffee — from coffee farmers, whose livelihoods are threatened by devastating diseases like coffee leaf rust, to coffee processors and consumers around the world,” he said.

The sequencing was conducted through a collaboration between Medrano, plant scientists Allen Van Deynze and Dario Cantu, and postdoctoral research scholar Amanda Hulse-Kemp, all from UC Davis.

Friendly challenge leads to C. arabica sequencing:

A few years ago, Medrano — born and raised in coffee-producing Guatemala — was urged by colleagues in Central America to consider introducing genomic technologies to improve C. arabica.

In 2014, researchers elsewhere sequenced the genome of Coffea canephora — commonly known as robusta coffee and used for making coffee blends and instant coffee. There has been, however, no publicly accessible genome sequence for the higher-value and more genetically complex C. arabica.

Medrano was intrigued with the challenge to sequence C. arabica, but as an animal geneticist was experienced in the genomics of livestock — not crops.

Undeterred, he quickly tapped the expertise of molecular breeder Van Deynze, director of research at the UC Davis Seed Biotechnology Center and associate director of the UC Davis Plant Breeding Center, as well as Cantu, a plant geneticist in the UC Davis Department of Viticulture and Enology.

Sequencing intersects birth of California coffee farming:

Coincidentally, the UC Davis research team was introduced to farmer Jay Ruskey, who with the help of University of California Cooperative Extension farm advisor Mark Gaskell, was growing the first commercial coffee plants in the continental United States at his Good Land Organics farm north of Santa Barbara.

Coffee is a tropical crop, traditionally grown around the world in a geographic belt that extends no more than 25 degrees north or south of the equator. But at Ruskey’s Central Coast farm, coffee trees are producing high-quality coffee beans at a latitude about 19 degrees north of any other commercial coffee plantations.

Ruskey also has planted coffee trees on some 20 other farms stretching from San Luis Obispo south to San Diego, launching what he believes will become a new specialty-coffee industry for California.

Working with Ruskey, the UC Davis researchers collected genetic material — DNA and RNA samples — from different tissues and developmental stages of 23 Geisha coffee trees growing at Good Land Organics. Geisha, known for its unique aromatic qualities, is a high-value C. arabica variety that originated in the mountains of western Ethiopia.

Plant material from one of the trees — UCG-17 Geisha — was used for developing the C. arabica genome sequence.

Coffea arabica‘s complex genome:

C. arabica is a hybrid cross derived from two other plant species: C. canephora (robusta coffee), and the closely related C. eugenioides. As a result of that hybrid crossing, C. arabica‘s complex genome has four sets of chromosomes — unlike many other plants and humans, which have only two chromosome sets.

Using sequencing technology developed by Pacific Biosciences of Menlo Park, California, the UC Davis researchers estimated that UCG-17 Geisha has a genome made up of 1.19 billion base pairs — about one-third that of the human genome.

The study used a combination of the latest technologies for genome sequencing and genome assembly from Dovetail Genomics of Santa Cruz, California, revealing an estimated 70,830 predicted genes.

Going forward, the researchers will focus on identifying genes and molecular pathways associated with coffee quality, in hopes that these will provide a better understanding of the flavor profiles of Geisha coffee.

They have sequenced samples from 22 other Geisha coffee trees to obtain a glimpse of the genetic variation within that variety and among 13 other C. arabica varieties, which will also be important for developing plants that can resist disease and cope with other environmental stresses.

Genome sequencing crucial for global industry:

Jose Kawashima, president and CEO of Mi Cafeto Co. Ltd. in Tokyo, a leading specialty coffee company in Japan, stressed the importance of the discovery for all levels of global coffee production.

“Having worked in the coffee industry for over 40 years and visited coffee farms around the world, I have never witnessed as many quality C. arabica coffee farms under duress due to deteriorating social issues and the impacts of climate change,” said Kawashima, who was not directly involved in the genome sequencing effort.

“Therefore, it is urgent that this scientific discovery be used to implement practical improvements at the farm level to sustain the future of the coffee industry,” Kawashima said. “If sustainability can be achieved at the coffee producer level, then coffee lovers in consuming countries can continue to enjoy quality coffee.”

Funding for the sequencing project was provided by the Suntory group, through its Suntory Global Innovation Center Limited, located in Kyoto, Japan.

The C. arabica sequencing was of particular interest for the Suntory group, whose many brands include coffee drinks, marketed in Japan.

“We anticipate that functional analysis of the genes identified by the C. arabica sequencing will lead to development of new, disease-resistant coffee varieties with enhanced flavor and aroma characteristics,” said Yoshikazu Tanaka, senior general manager for Suntory Global Innovation Center Limited.

“The Suntory Group will continue its research and development efforts to identify formulas and raw materials for creating coffee beverages that have higher added value, with a focus on safety, security and good taste,” Tanaka said.

Developed Environmentally Friendly Soy Air Filter

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A soy-based air filter that can capture toxic chemicals, such as carbon monoxide and formaldehyde, which current air filters can’t, has been developed by Washington State University researchers.

The research could lead to better air purifiers, particularly in regions of the world that suffer from very poor air quality. The engineers have designed and tested the materials for the bio-based filter and report on their work in the journal Composites Science and Technology.

Working with researchers from the University of Science and Technology Beijing, the WSU team, including Weihong (Katie) Zhong, professor in the School of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, and graduate student Hamid Souzandeh, used a pure soy protein along with bacterial cellulose for an all-natural, biodegradable, inexpensive air filter.

Hazardous gases escape most filters

Poor air quality causes health problems worldwide and is a factor in diseases such as asthma, heart disease and lung cancer. Commercial air purifiers aim for removing the small particles that are present in soot, smoke or car exhaust because these damaging particles are inhaled directly into the lungs.

With many sources of pollution in some parts of the world, however, air pollution also can contain a mix of hazardous gaseous molecules, such as carbon monoxide, formaldehyde, sulfur dioxide and other volatile organic compounds.

Typical air filters, which are usually made of micron-sized fibers of synthetic plastics, physically filter the small particles but aren’t able to chemically capture gaseous molecules. Furthermore, they’re most often made of glass and petroleum products, which leads to secondary pollution, Zhong said.

Soy captures nearly all pollutants

The WSU and Chinese team developed a new kind of air filtering material that uses natural, purified soy protein and bacterial cellulose – an organic compound produced by bacteria. The soy protein and cellulose are cost effective and already used in numerous applications, such as adhesives, plastic products, tissue regeneration materials and wound dressings.

Soy contains a large number of functional chemical groups – it includes 18 types of amino groups. Each of the chemical groups has the potential to capture passing pollution at the molecular level. The researchers used an acrylic acid treatment to disentangle the very rigid soy protein, so that the chemical groups can be more exposed to the pollutants.

The resulting filter was able to remove nearly all of the small particles as well as chemical pollutants, said Zhong.

Filters are economical, biodegradable

Especially in very polluted environments, people might be breathing an unknown mix of pollutants that could prove challenging to purify. But, with its large number of functional groups, the soy protein is able to attract a wide variety of polluting molecules.

“We can take advantage from those chemical groups to grab the toxics in the air,” Zhong said.

The materials are also cost-effective and biodegradable. Soybeans are among the most abundant plants in the world, she added.

Zhong occasionally visits her native China and has personally experienced the heavy pollution in Beijing as sunny skies turn to gray smog within a few days.

“Air pollution is a very serious health issue,” she said. “If we can improve indoor air quality, it would help a lot of people.”

Patents filed on filters, paper towels

In addition to the soy-based filters, the researchers have also developed gelatin- and cellulose-based air filters. They are also applying the filter material on top of low-cost and disposable paper towel to reinforce it and to improve its performance. They have filed patents on the technology and are interested in commercialization opportunities.

The work is in keeping with WSU’s Grand Challenges, a suite of research initiatives aimed at large societal issues. It is particularly relevant to the challenge of sustaining health and its theme of healthy communities and interventions to sustain public health.

Brazil’s Locomotive Gasps For Breath – Analysis

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The process of growth and modernization in Brazil has been always described as an example to be followed by other developing countries. Nevertheless, the Brazilian ‘locomotive’ has stopped.

The country is going through a period of dramatic political and economic instability. Although the Olympics Games should have been an international show of Brazilian power, they revealed the structural weakness of a country full of ambiguities and contradictions instead. The Petrobras’ inquiry, combined with negative effects of the economic crisis, seem to have temporarily buried the China of South America. Oil wealth has become not a blessing, but a curse.

“In a broader sense, the hydrocarbons and its scarcity phychologization, its monetization (and related weaponization) is serving rather a coercive and restrictive status quo than a developmental incentive,” diagnoses Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic, and concludes: “That essentially calls not for an engagement but compliance.”

To describe the history of the nation we need to focus our attention on oil, because the black gold is the embodiment of the success -and fall- of the Brazilian economy.

Oil – how black is gold

One the central drivers of Brazilian economic growth has been the production and the export of natural resources and their products. Looking at Brazil’s GDP between 1982 and 2015, three main trends can be observed. (i) A stable growth pattern from 1982 to 2002. (ii) The GDP rocketing up between 2003 and 2012, with a light slowdown during 2009-2010 caused by the financial crisis. (iii) A fall of GDP’s values between 2012 and 2015.

Analyzing the evolution of the percentage of annual GDP growth, it is not possible to identify a specific trend. The most significant point that can be made is the constant growth of the GDP between 2004 and 2008, which was around 5% per year. The economic growth does not just imply a dramatic increase of GDP but also the improvement in social-economic status of millions of poor Brazilians. Starting from 2001 the level of absolute poverty – defined as the percentage living with less than two dollars per day – decreased 12%. The levels of relative poverty – defined as the percentage of people with less than 50% of the average income – fell by 25% between 2002 and 2013.

Graph 1: Trend of Brazilian GDP 1982 e il 2014

Graph 1: Trend of Brazilian GDP 1982 e il 2014

Graph 2: Percentage of GDP Growth 1982-2014
Grafico 2: Percentage of GDP Grotwh 1982-2014

Graph 3: Trend of poverty levels 1995-2013

Graph 3: Trends of poverty levels 1995-2013

The value of export and of the satellite activities of natural resources for Brazilian is represented by their proportion on the total GDP. As clearly shown in Graph 4, one of the engines of the Brazilian boom in the 2000s has been oil. Its incidence on GDP increased remarkably from 1999, a stable growth that reached its peak during 2000s. Between 2003 and 2006 oil rents produced around 3% of total GDP. Graph 5 shows the cost of oil per barrel from 1980 to 2015. To clarify, the most important oil reserve in Brazil is Pré-Sal, which needs to compete in a market in which the price is of at least 70 dollars per barrel in order to be profitable. The fall of the international price of oil, then, has been penalizing the Brazilian economy that was already damaged by the crisis of Chinese demand and the slowdown of FDI.

Graph 4: Percentage of oil and natural resources on Brazilian GDP 1982-2012

Graph 4: Percentage of oil and natural resourcces on Brazilian GDP 1982-2012

Graph 5: Trends of oil barrel 1980-2014

Graph 5: Trends of oil barrel 1980-2014

Eike Batista, image of Brazilian fable

The story of Eike Batista is bond with the growth and the fall of Brazilian economy. Batista has been one of the richest man in the world, 8th in the Forbes rank of worldwide billionaires and owner of 30 billion dollars in 2012. However, this changed in 2014 when he admitted to the loss of his wealth and his debt of one billion dollars.

How is it possible that this self-made billionaire lost his wealth totaling a whopping 30 billion dollars? The success and the fall of Batista’s business is connected to oil. In the 80s, after completing his metallurgic studies, he went to Amazon forest to implement machines in the research and the extraction of gold. In the 1983 he bought a small society in the Canadian stock exchange, of extraction and trade of natural resources, that gained the value of 1.7 billion dollars in a few years. In 2002 he sold his company for 875 million. The devaluation of the asset was due to wrong investment done by the society in Greece, Russia and Czech Republic, which cost million of loss.

Batista exploited new opportunities that arose during the Brazilian economic boom. Between 2001 and 2002 he created and subsequently sold two companies to the Brazilian state; a thermodynamics and an iron production company. The holding that would make a Batista billionaire was OGX (Petròleo e Gàs Participacoes), specialized in the research and refinement of oil and gas. The market strategy of OGX was aggressive from the beginning. In 2007 he arranged the rights of exploration for 21 areas for OGX doubling the amount offered by its competitors. The next year OGX was able to produce barrels at the cost of 145 dollars per barrel and it announced their structures would be able to produce 1 million barrel per day in 2019. Batista’s ambitions and his confidence in Brazilian economy encouraged him to invest a large amount of money to build up a harbour at Acu, 400 km away from Rio de Janeiro. The project was supposed to create a centre for the refinement and the trade of oil products, thereby radically increasing OGX’ productivity.

From 2008 onward, the Brazilian magistrate started to investigate bribes that Batista allegedly gave to the Governor of Amapà, Waldex Gòez, concessions of privileges for his companies. Even though the media caught wind of the investigation, the judiciary case was closed without any charges. The slowdown of Brazilian economy and the fall of the oil barrel started to strain foreign investors and foreign shareholders and lead them to reduce investments into Batista’s companies. The final blow was caused by the Abu Dhabi fund, Mudabala Development, which retired from EBX – one of Batista’s holdings – and asked for the liquidation of all their stock options which totaled 1.5 billion dollars. The financial pressure then cut the liquidity of Batista’s companies, which, having invested a lot of money, survived using financial leverage. Like a balloon, EBX snapped under the weight of financial debts that made Batista lose all of his assets.

Petrobas investigation

In March 2014, a group of Brazilian judges started to investigate the relationship between the Worker’s Party and the public oil company Petrobras. The charge was that executive directors of Petrobras and of the main building societies (Btp) developed a corrupt system in which Btp would receive contracts for the construction of oil platforms increasing the building costs between 1% and 3%. In exchange, governmental parties would obtain illegal funds to sponsor political campaigns. The companies involved were Camargo Corrêa, Oas, Utc-Constram, Odebrecht, Mendes Júnior, Engevix, Queiroz Galvão, Iesa Óleo & Gás e Galvão Engenharia and members of the Workers’ Party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (Pmdb) and the Progressive Party. (Pp).

The main consequence of the inquiry was the delegitimization of the Workers’ Party that led Brazil from 2002 onward. The President, Dilma Rousseff was forced to leave office despite the fact she was not personally involved in the investigation. The successor of former President Lula endured immediate pressure to resign for her knowledge of systematic corruption as Chairman of Petrobras and Minister of Energy (2003-2005). Nevertheless, the impeachment of Rousseff regarded the charge of having transferred public funds from national banks to finance social expenses that went beyond the fixed amount allocated for public expenses. However, the charges that led to her dismissal did not include the Petrobas scandal.

Eduardo Cunha was the political leader leading the group that called for Rousseff’s dismissal. Paradoxically, he was not only found with a secret million dollar bank account in Switzerland, but was also barred from assuming any public position for eight years due to an investigation for his involvement in corruption and bribes. Some representatives of worldwide left-wing parties talk about a conspiracy to dismiss the Workers’ Party.

The Brazilian and international elite allegedly exploited the economic crisis to destroy the consensus of Lula and Rousseff’s party, which had always had significant popular support. Lula won the election in 2002 with 46.4% of the votes against just 23.3% of his opposing candidate José Serra. In 2006, Lula was confirmed President with 48.6% in the next election. His successor, Dilma Rousseff, won in 2010 with 46.9% of the votes. Even though she experienced a small decline, Rousseff won the election in 2014 with 41.6% of the votes.

These Brazilian governments made enemies in the international market due to their politics of nationalization and semi-nationalization of natural resources. For example, Petrobras, founded in 1953, was partially privatized during the 90s. However, Lula started a propagandist campaign in 2007 to return company under state control. In addition, to prevent the private exploitation of the Pré-Sal oil reserve, Lula’s government passed a law to give to Petrobras the monopoly to explore the area and extract oil from Pré-Sal.

Some influential voices, such as independent Brazilian experts and academics raised concerns about the nature of the process. Pedro Fassoni Arruda argues that there were secret powers behind the impeachment that were also involved in the coup d’etat in 1964. In a similar vein, Pablo Ortellado criticized the framing of Rousseff in the media. Sapelli contends that the modern political history of Brazil is characterized by a deep fragmentation of parties, which means every President has to deal with many small personal parties. The external support that every government needs to administrate generated the construction of a system of corruption intrinsic to Brazilian society. Many experts believe that judge’s actions could enforce the trust of markets and investors in Brazilian institutions. Cutting the ambiguous bonds that exist between parties and companies should help to make the legal framework more stable and safe, strengthening the power of the Law. This could be a message from Brazil to all the world, that whoever is corrupted, no matter what status, will be punished.

Recently, the news reported the Brazilian parliament approved a law with 292 in 393 to abolish the monopoly of Petrobras on the reserve of Pré-Sal. This law seems to be just the first step of a greater project of privatization pursued by President Michel Temer. With strong politics of liberalization for Brazilian natural resources, Brazil seems to offer intriguing opportunities for business and investments for many multinationals. If Petrobras’ inquiry is just conspiracy or smart intuition is hard to understand. Surely, the destiny of Brazil will be, another time, defined by black gold. For better or worse.

*Nicola Bilotta has a BA and a MA in History from Università degli Studi di Milano and a MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics. He works as a Global Finance Research Assistant at The Banker (Financial Times) and collaborates as an external researcher at ISAG (Istituto di Alti Studi di Geopolitica e Scienze Ausiliari) N_bilotta@lse.ac.uk

Bibliografia
K. Blankfeld, Big Man in Brazil, Forbes 3/11/2010
ECB, What is driving Brazil’s economic downturn, Issue 1/2016-Box 1
J. Leahy, Brazil’s left fears Rousseff coup, Financial Times 3/04/2016
D. Miranda, Brazilian politician who led Rousseff impeachment arrested on corruption charges, 21/04/2016
OECD, Economic Surveys Brazil, 11/2015
S. Romero e V. Sreeharsha, Dilma Rousseff Targeted in Brazil by Lawmakers Facing Scandals of Their Own, New York Times 14/04/2016
M, Sandy, Brazilian politician who led Rousseff impeachment arrested on corruption charges, The
Guardian 19/10/2016
G. Sapelli, Dal Brasile all’Italia. I poteri forti dietro le inchieste pilotate sul petrolio, Il Sussidiario 7/04/2016
J. P. Spinetto, P. Millard and K. Wells, How Brazil’s Richest Man Lost $ 34.5 billion, 4/10/2013 Bloomerang 4/10/2013
World Bank, Dataset Brazil, http://data.worldbank.org/country/brazil

China: Arrests Ex-Pastor Of Largest State-Run Megachurch

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Authorities in China’s Zhejiang province have formally arrested the former pastor of China’s largest state-run megachurch.

According to sources, authorities re-apprehended Gu Joseph Yuese sometime before Christmas, Christian Newswire reported.

On Jan. 7, his family was informed he had been arrested on embezzlement charges.

As the former chairman of the Hangzhou Municipal China Christian Council, a local branch of the China Christian Council (CCC), which, along with the Three-Self Patriotic Movement (TSPM), comprises China’s two government-run Christian organizations, Gu is the highest-profile Christian official to be targeted since the Cultural Revolution.

He also was a member of the Standing Committee of the national China Christian Council before being removed from both positions.

On Jan. 18, 2016, he was ousted as senior pastor of Chongyi Church, China’s largest Three-Self Church.

The local TSPM and CCC alleged that replacing Gu would help them better manage official churches, improve their relationship with the provincial government, and better circulate prominent Christians in charge of churches.

However, Gu had publicly opposed a campaign to demolish church crosses, causing many Christians to link his advocacy and dismissal.

On Jan. 28, 2016, officials placed Gu under “residential surveillance in a designated location,” otherwise known as a “black jail,” and held him incommunicado.

Two days later, China Aid learned he had been charged with “embezzling 10 million Yuan [US $1.6 million] in funds.”

He was released on bail in late March and held under house arrest.

Abbas Meets With Pope Francis, Opens Palestinian Embassy At Vatican

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Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas inaugurated the Palestinian embassy at the Vatican on Saturday and met with Pope Francis, when the two discussed an international peace conference set to launch in Paris on Sunday, when world leaders are expected to renew efforts to resolve the decades-old Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

“We are very grateful about the role that the Holy See has played for a just and lasting peace in the Holy Land, and for having opened an embassy of Palestine in the Vatican for first time. We are proud to be the birthplace of Christianity and about having one of the oldest Christian communities in the world,” Abbas said in a statement after the visit.

During their meeting, Abbas presented Pope Francis with replicas of the Church of the Holy Sepulcher in Jerusalem and the Nativity Church in Bethlehem, along with “a book on the historic relations between Palestine and the Vatican and a painting by a Palestinian-Armenian artist of the Cremisan valley and the separation wall in Bethlehem,” according to state-run news agency Wafa.

Pope Francis, in return gave Abbas a book covering the “history of the Holy See” and a “medal titled ‘Mercy.’”

The meeting between Abbas and Pope Francis focused on the situation in Palestine and the Vatican, and what has ensued since the Vatican’s recognition of Palestine in 2015.

Abbas also used the occasion to call on the rest of the world to recognize the state of Palestine, before raising the Palestinian flag at the headquarters of the new Palestinian embassy at the finish of the inauguration ceremony.

“Tomorrow, over 70 countries will meet in Paris in order to discuss how to bring peace to our region, the holy land,” Abbas said in his statement, adding that “we call upon the participants to take concrete measures in order to implement international law and UN resolutions.”

“It is long overdue for the Palestinian people to exercise their basic right to live in freedom and dignity.”

The Palestinian president also said he discussed with Pope Francis the issue of Jerusalem, as “the Israeli government continues its policies aimed at turning Jerusalem into an exclusive Jewish/Israeli city, demolishing Palestinian homes, expanding illegal settlements, building an illegal Annexation Wall, dividing families, and isolating our occupied capital from the rest of Palestine,” Abbas said.

He added that “Any attempts at legitimizing the illegal Israeli annexation of the city will destroy the prospects of any political process, bury the hopes for a two-state solution, and fuel extremism in our region, as well as worldwide,” amid threats by US President-elect Donald Trump to move the US embassy from the Israeli city of Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

“In this moment, we extend our hand to President-elect Trump for his cooperation to make peace based on international law,” the statement concluded.

Meanwhile, Ambassador of Palestine to the Holy See, Issa Kassissieh said following the meetings and the inauguration ceremony that the relations with the Holy See were a “priority in our foreign policy.”

“Just as we raised our flags together in the United Nations, we hope that we will be able to take more steps that can bring us closer to a just and lasting peace in Jerusalem and the rest of the State of Palestine,” he said.

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