Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73742 articles
Browse latest View live

Asset-Price Inflation Heating Up With Nothing To Show For It – OpEd

$
0
0

By C. Jay Engel*

Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker is allegedly one of the hawks, though that term can’t mean what is used to — not in a world where it takes 8 years to get to .5%–.75% on the Fed Funds Rate target.

Monday, Lacker repeated his position that the Fed is “getting behind the curve.” This puts him sharply at odds with “Dovish” Yellen who in her recent Stanford speech opined the opposite on “getting behind the curve.” Lacker wants a few more minuscule rate increases than Yellen.

What a meaningless disagreement over quarters of a percentage point on a meaningless interest rate. Right under their noses, of course, Fed’s monetary actions over the years have driven financial asset prices skyward, home prices to absurdity, and commodity prices up 40% (even after dropping since 2014). But all they see on the price inflation front is less than 2% on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) statistic!

But despite all the faux concern over an “overheating economy,” lies the fact that manufacturing sales have largely plateaued since 2012, industrial production has fallen since 2014, and Obama is the first president since Hoover to not have a single year of over 3% GDP growth.

What a time to be alive. Not only has the Fed successfully stagnated the economy, but we are still getting the same tired talk of a push toward interest rate normalization. With a stagnating economy and rising prices, they used to call this stagflation. Now it is dismissed as “the new normal.”

And indeed this has become the new normal, seemingly. But perhaps instead of conducting the same old tired monetarist/Keynesian econometric experiments, the Fed should take a look in the mirror. We certainly can’t expect a growing economy while the world’s central banks actively undermine our vital pool of funding via fiscal and monetary interventionism.

About the author:
*C. Jay Engel is an investment advisor at The Sullivan Group, an independent, Austrian-School oriented, wealth management firm in northern California. He is especially interested in wealth preservation in our era of rogue Central Banking. He is an avid reader of the Austro-libertarian literature and a dedicated proponent of private property and sound money. Visit his blog, TheAustrianView.com.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute


Tajikistan: Transition To Monarchy Completed? – Analysis

$
0
0

By Rusif Huseynov*

In the first month of 2017, Tajikistan witnessed a major dismissal accompanied by an (un)expected appointment in the power.

The mayor of Dushanbe, Tajikistan`s capitol city, was sacked by Presidential decree. Had such a case happened in a Western country, it would have been accepted as something quite ordinary. Especially if the dismissed person had served 20 years in office. But in Tajikistan, Central Asia`s landlocked nation, with its own mentality and features, that go is more than a discharge. It might be the last move in the struggle of power and signal the completion of transition to monarchy (still unformal though).

Who was Mahmadsaid Ubaydulloev?

Mahmadsaid Ubaydulloev had been governing Dushanbe for uninterrupted 20 years. Labeled as No. 2 person in Tajikistan, he was reckoned the main rival to the country`s uncrowned monarch Emomali Rahmon.

A typical product of the Soviet party system, Ubaydulloev could make it into higher levels of the power at relatively a younger age in the 1980s.

Even after Tajikistan`s emergence as an independent nation as a result of the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Ubaydulloev remained in the government as deputy prime minister and managed to undergo the turbulent years of the civil war unharmed. In 1996, he was appointed mayor of Dushanbe, an office he would hold for another 20 years.

Ubaydulloev’s strong links with Moscow gave ground to rumors about him being Russia`s man in Tajikistan. At home and beyond, he was regarded as the sole and most serious person to challenge Emomali Rahmon’s unlimited rule, due to absence of normal opposition, although he always publicly supported the incumbent president and remained in his shade, satisfied with a modest status of the second person in the country.

Royal family

The present leader, Emomali Rahmon, has been leading Tajikistan de facto since 1992, as president since 1994. Although a military mutiny was launched against his clan in the mid-1990s, he could effectively manage to end the civil war in 1997, by making compromises and meeting some demands of the insurgents.

Throughout the 1990s and entire 2000s, Emomali Rahmon strove to firmly consolidate the power in his hands, by effectively diminishing the opposition`s influence and moving his main rivals out of the way. To further legitimize his unlimited and infinite rule, Tajik president initiated several referenda that lifted the limit on presidential terms, abolished the maximum eligibility age for presidential candidates and increased the period of presidential tenure. This process has been accompanied by human rights abuse and a high degree of corruption in almost all spheres, according to a number of international organizations. The U.S. diplomatic cables leaked in 2010 noted that members of Rakhmon’s family and inner circle are widely viewed as being the most corrupt people in the country.

The wealthier Rahmon has become, the poorer Tajikistan has downgraded. The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Tajikistan was recorded at 2661.38 US dollars in 2015, when adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). 32% of the population lives below the national poverty line, according to an ADB report. Mass unemployment has driven many people out of the country in search of job and better welfare outside. No surprise that the impoverished country has, therefore, long been the most remittance-dependent in the world, with cash transfers accounting for approximately half of the economy. Migrant transfers totaled more than $4 billion in 2013, the equivalent of 52 percent of GDP. That figure was 45.5 percent in 2010 and 48 percent in 2012.

Those, who travel to Tajikistan repeat that the country, especially its provinces seem frozen in the 1980s and no change in the country`s lifestyle and people`s welfare has occurred. The situation might have even worsened compared to the Soviet period.

Emomali Rahmon might not be quite successful in advancing his nation into the 21st century, but there is something he has done quite well. Having mastered the Soviet-time power style and imitating the leaders of his wealthier neighbors, he has built a personal cult, which may seem bigger than his own tiny country. Since 1994, Tajik president proudly bears the title “Peshvoi millat” (Leader of the Nation). In December 2015, Tajikistan`s parliament granted him another designation which sounds more solemn: “Founder of Peace and National Unity”.

A cult of personality centered around Emomali Rahmon is now extending to other members of his family. In recent years, Rahmon has strengthened his family`s position as he penetrated his children into important posts in the government. In 2016, Rahmon`s daughter Ozoda (39) became chief of the Presidential administration, a key government position in many post-Soviet countries. In the same year, she was also elected as a senator to the upper chamber of Majlisi Oli, Tajikistan`s Supreme Assembly. Prior to that, she had worked in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, having reached the position of deputy minister.

Ozoda`s brother, Rustam Emomali (29) is the eldest son in Tajikistan`s first family. Rustam is known as one of the youngest generals in the world: in 2013, he was appointed head of the Customs Service and received a military rank of major general. In March 2015, President Emomali Rahmon appointed his son to head the country`s principal anti-corruption bureau, the State Agency for Financial Control and Measures Against Corruption.

The new post as the mayor of Dushanbe may seem as a trampoline for Rustam to a higher position as it was long speculated that the young man is being prepared to substitute his father on top. In addition to high-level training at senior government positions, Rustam`s path to the throne is also cleared and facilitated by the authorities.

For example, in May 2016, a nationwide referendum gave a consent to a number of changes to the country`s constitution. One of the key amendments reduced the minimum eligibility age for presidential candidates from 35 to 30, effectively enabling Rustam Emomali to succeed his father in office after 2017.

In this context, the change in Dushanbe’s mayoral office could be the last move on a chessboard, at which Mahmadsaid Ubaydulloev, No. 2 in Tajikistan with likely higher ambitions, was finally checkmated. By firing Ubaydulloev, Emomali Rahmon not only won the major struggle and kicked him out of political arena, but obviously pointed to Rustam as his successor.

In a country, where nepotism and corruption is a normal phenomenon (according to a widespread belief, any other person in place of Emomali Rahmon and/or other senior officials would also serve first to their pockets and promote their relatives), the recent developments may not generate any shock in local society and could be seen a logical event in the succession process.

Although other post-Soviet Central Asian neighbors of Tajikistan have also similar regimes with unlimited power of the strongmen, who would reign until their last days (Kyrgyzstan is a lucky exception with some signs of democracy) and have their family members enjoy great influence in the country, neither Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan nor Saparmurad Niyazow of Turkmenistan did not (or could not) manage to transfer the power to their children. But Tajikistan is completing a transformation to monarchy with certain steps.

About the author:
*Rusif Huseynov
is the co-founder and editor-in-chief of ThePoliticon online political journal. His main interest is peace and conflict studies, while his focus area covers mainly Eastern Europe, Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia. Contact: r.huseynov[at]thepoliticon.net thepoliticon.net

Source:
This article was published at Modern Diplomacy

Unfulfilled Promise Of Informed Consent In Mining Projects – Analysis

$
0
0

By Erika Quinteros*

Last December, Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa declared a state of emergency in the province of Morona Santiago. Used in cases of foreign aggression, armed conflict, domestic disturbances and natural disasters, the state of emergency allows for the suspension of basic freedoms like speech, assembly and travel and protections from illegal searches and seizures. Correa made the decision after a conflict between Shuar residents from the community of Nankints and the armed forces resulted in the death of a police officer.

But this tragic outcome was preceded by an earlier violent event. The Ecuadorian government had evicted eight Shuar families in San Juan Bosco canton in August of 2016, arguing that the families were squatting on land belonging to Explorcobres S.A., owner of the Panantza-San Carlos copper project.[1] Nevertheless, leaders from various indigenous organizations reminded the Ecuadorian president that these families belonged to an indigenous community, and that the mining concessions had been granted in contravention of the International Labor Organization (ILO) Convention 169 and its guarantees of prior, free and informed consultation.[2]

What is Convention 169?

Convention 169 of the ILO–also known as Prior, Free and Informed Consult–requires that signatory countries consult indigenous communities about legislative or executive actions that could directly affect them, in order to arrive at an agreement as well as consent for the action. [3]

Convention 169 of the ILO is “to this day, the only international regulatory instrument that grants indigenous peoples the internationally protected right to their own land, culture and language, and commits the signatory countries to respect minimum standards in the execution of those rights.” [4] It was approved in 1989 and entered into effect on September 4th, 1991. [5] Since then, it has been ratified by 22 countries around the world, including 14 in Latin America: Mexico (1990), Colombia (1991), Bolivia (1991), Costa Rica (1993), Paraguay (1993), Peru (1994), Honduras (1995), Guatemala (1996), Ecuador (1998), Argentina (2000), Brazil (2002), Venezuela (2002), Chile (2008) and Nicaragua (2010). [6]

The Andean Region: From signatures to reality

The Colombian government ratified Convention 169 in 1991, and 10 years later it carried out the first prior consultation related to a mining project. [7]In the cases of Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, 13, 20, 23 years passed respectively between ratification and implementation. But the problem is not just the delay, per se, in implementing the agreement, but also the mistrust, conflicts, and deaths generated by the delay. According to the Observatory of Mining Conflicts in Latin America, Peru has the second-highest number of conflicts in Latin America, and the Andean region (comprising Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Bolivia) account for more than 44 percent of all mining conflicts in South America. [8]

Nevertheless, it is important to note that Andean governments have made significant progress towards the implementation of prior consultation. Those efforts, however, have been uneven. In Peru, in 2011, then-president Ollanta Humala enacted the Right to Prior Consultation for the Indigenous Peoples law. He also created a Vice Ministry for Interculturality, part of the Ministry of Culture, to implement the consultation process and create the database of indigenous communities that would benefit from it, among other responsibilities. So far, three consultation processes related to mining projects have been completed, and several others are underway. Nevertheles, indigenous communities face a new threat: a bill, introduced in 2016, seeks to weaken the prior consultation law whose enactment cost indigenous people so much time and blood in the land of the Incas. [9]

For their part, the governments of Rafael Correa in Ecuador and Evo Morales in Bolivia changed their national constitutions in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The new constitutions recognized their status as plurinational countries and reaffirmed their commitment to prior, free and informed consultation. Nevertheless, the first mining consultation in Bolivia was carried out more than six years after the enactment of the new constitution, and there are five flagship mining projects in Ecuador marred by conflict. Panantza-San Carlos is one of these.

Colombia has gone further and includes not only indigenous communities, but also Afro-Colombian and Roma communities, among the ethnic groups that benefit from prior consultation. Nonetheless, the consultation processes are not always carried out or completed, and lead to complaints about the lack of information. [10] In 2009, the government of then-president Alvaro Uribe granted the Muriel Mining Corporation exploration rights on land that is home to the Emberá indigenous community, violating Convention 169. [11] This case was hardly unique to Uribe’s government or to Colombia. Similar actions are carried out both in Andean countries and elsewhere in the hemisphere. The full application of Convention 169 in Peru, Bolivia, Colombia and Ecuador has seemed to be an impossible dream: five years after the first consultation in the Andean region, major challenges remain.

It is also important to highlight the role of mining companies in the prevention and resolution of conflicts. The companies that explore and exploit mining concessions without consideration of the most basic environmental and social standards or international and national laws bear as much responsibility as governments do. Several mining companies refuse to participate in consultations under Convention 169, heightening the risk of conflict. Contrary to what Canadian mining company Barrick Misquichilca’s director of corporate affairs once claimed, the fact that Convention 169 has been signed by relatively few countries does not diminish its legality or validity in signatory countries. [12] Likewise, Carlos Santa Cruz, then the regional vice president of the American mining company Newmont, denied the communities surrounding the Conga project their right to prior consultation after years of conflict. [13] The issues there have not yet been resolved.

Consultation takes time and requires investment, and there’s no guarantee that the parties will reach an agreement. But that’s what democracy is about: participating and allowing those with a very different worldview to participate, as well. We can’t wait–as happened with Barrick’s Mande Norte project in Colombia–for the Constitutional Court to intervene and suspend exploration, or even worse, for civilians and soldiers to die before governments recognize the inalienable rights of our indigenous communities.

*Erika Quinteros, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

 

[1] Ministry of Interior, http://www.ministeriointerior.gob.ec/invasion-ilegal-de-28-predios-en-morona-concluyo-con-el-desalojo-por-orden-judicial/

[2] “Rueda de Prensa CONAIE & CONFENIAE situación Panantza – Morona Santiago”, 15-12-2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cm992D-b2Mk

[3] International Labor Organization, http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/es/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:12100:0::NO::P12100_ILO_CODE:C169

[4] Grupo Internacional de Trabajo sobre Asuntos Indígenas, http://www.iwgia.org/derechos-humanos/procesos-internacionales/oit

[5] Internacional Labor Organization,

http://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/es/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:11300:0::NO::P11300_INSTRUMENT_ID:312314

[6] Ibid

[7] Corte Constitucional, http://www.corteconstitucional.gov.co/relatoria/2009/t-769-09.htm

[8] El Comercio, http://elcomercio.pe/sociedad/cusco/aprueban-proyecto-consulta-previa-exploracion-minera-noticia-1839475

[9] La Mula, https://cartaselectorales.lamula.pe/2016/09/07/la-consulta-previa-otra-vez-en-riesgo/ilanegra/

[10] “Consulta Previa – Distorsiones y manipulaciones (Suarez, Cauca)”, 20-06-2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l40WcxuPZfI

[11] Environmental Justice Atlas, http://ejatlas.org/conflict/proyecto-mand-norte-murind-colombia

[12] “Gonzalo Quijandría (Barrick): “La Consulta Previa podría trabar las inversiones mineras”, 30-05-2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QGemRpxz1U

[13] Ideelradio, http://ideeleradio.blogspot.com/2011/11/newmont-se-opone-consulta-previa-con.html

Why Peace-Building Is Now Difficult In Kashmir – OpEd

$
0
0

The turmoil since 1989 has established uncertainty and chaos as the new normal in the valley of Kashmir. Undoubtedly, Kashmir that was once so proudly called as a paradise on earth is now full of inconveniences. It is the place where everything is now politicized, but never resolved.

The decades of mass alienation and unaccounted violence has shaped up mass anger and that collective rage has slowly led to distrust against the government and also torn the social fabric. Amid the suffering masses, the constant blame game and labeling is the norm and those who talk of oppressors forget that they have themselves been guilty of committing the same atrocities when in power. The masses have always felt suppressed and the prolonged conflict has thus shaped a gory history, a bitter memory and a life of indignity, hopelessness, and exploitation. Standing witness to half-revolutions, vested interests and unmet promises, the state of Jammu and Kashmir seems to be reeling under a severe crisis, collective anomie and alienation. Thanks to the leadership crisis and lack of vision of the contemporary power regime.

It is not that Kashmiris don’t want peace, today every Kashmiri cries for peace and calm and the whole valley is yearning to grow and longing for Peace but instead of building peace and displaying practical seriousness and interest in peace process, ‘Give a damn policy’ continues and delaying tactics prevails. Consequently, normalcy is a luxury and peace is fragile, the calm is a deceptive calm which keeps waiting for a trigger to blow up every summer. The governance is not treated by masses as pro-Kashmir and there still exists a major sustained lack of effort towards enhancing credibility and social justice on the ground. Whereas, every committee or Human rights group suggests restoration of social justice but till date no report has been respected or paid any serious heed to.

The feeling of a secure psyche has vanished long before and getting rid of ambiguous and invisible control seems an impossible task. Amid a plethora of suppliers of instability, there exists an urgent need for a leadership that fully comprehends the Kashmir case and understands that there invariably exists a relationship between the equations of peace building and the forces of the sustenance of uncertainty which needs serious intervention. Akin to the nature of politics, where one party’s action invokes a quick reaction from the opposition, every action today in Kashmir has a reaction purely because of the prevailing dichotomous social realities and massive enemy perception!

From the governance side, the constant crisis mishandling and bad conflict management besides violent crimes against the civilians have shattered people’s faith in the concept of democracy and the trust deficit is too high to be abridged now. The inhuman incarcerations have inevitably become the order of the day and the bitter and painful past and narratives of torture and suffering are becoming the motivating reasons behind young Kashmiris’ choosing the path of violence.

On the social intervention front, the chief stake holders need to see whether the target population interfaces well with the problems addressed in the programmes launched for them or is there an acute sense of discredit due to the political nature of the Kashmir problem. Why does this discredit exist and how can it be addressed in the first place remains a big question and simultaneously a big task to accomplish? The answer is simple, address Jammu and Kashmir politically first and foremost and the development and all other discourses will follow and will definitely get mass recognition later. This is what people in power though know but never acknowledge. It is also important to make a note of those still left out and understand why, with regard to the overall welfare interventions, much still remains undone despite tall claims to the contrary, since 1947.

The single most significant prerequisite to overall development is the restoration of human dignity and safety in Kashmir, the rest can come later but the power elite always talks about the rest and ignores the fundamental. An empathetic approach therefore needs to be incorporated in a broader perspective, realizing the grave magnitude of the prevailing situation and that primarily needs willingness to deliver justice and restore Kashmir’s lost glory, without further delay.

On the security front, there is a dire need of strict discipline, human sensitivity and especially gender sensitivity while tackling the conflict. The important is to see to what extent working ethic or SOPs while operating are maintained and why have lapses continued for so long? What is the actual work done through WHAM (winning hearts and minds doctrine) and beyond encounters or killings what are the genuine peace efforts in-built into the existing system, what are the new peace friendly and mass friendly models of peace-building developed and most importantly to what extent is the Soldier-Civilian gap abridged over the years, etc,. Why is the enemy perception graph so all time high in the valley now? Why are even cops not safe? Unfortunately, policy and planning on Kashmir seems to be dismally lacking in vision and practicality so far resulting in civilian killings in every major or small uprising whereas the tactics to handle uprisings outside Kashmir are always different. The enemy perception continues to grow and peace building as a project continues to remain as a mere idea. Whose fault is this and who will take the responsibility? Who is responsible for pellet killings and pellet blinded victims?

Also the security apparatus has to ensure principles like honesty, transparency, quick action against HR violations, internal transformation of the Jawan, understanding the local ethos, sensitivities and vulnerabilities are taken care of and followed with due respect and regard to maintaining their sanctity. However, from a mass perspective, the whole security apparatus resorts to putting things only in black and white as far as probes are concerned. What is clearly visible is the lack of strong evaluations, decentralisation in judgements, lack of clear statements and open documentation of their and others operations. The security apparatus including the local police in today’s Kashmir needs to think beyond the big brotherly attitude that has actually contributed to alienation and unrest, even the young and educated home-grown militancy.

It also needs to be seen to what extent poor local participation, randomisation and generalisations destroy security calculations that got reflected so vividly in the 2016 uprising once again seeing slain militant commander Wani’s Funeral. It is also important to know that perspectives on peace practice and strategy need some theoretical frameworks and know-how, which demands vision and able leadership. Further understanding Kashmir’s changing society, social and political preferences, emerging new social dimensions and extent of social inequality amid the conflicting situation, etc, needs to be understood by all the significant stake holders properly and strategies to be framed accordingly. An effective social participation will go a long way in building a new political consciousness and ultimately a new peaceful Kashmir. Is anybody really interested in Peaceful Kashmir?

Another question that has to be answered satisfactorily, is to evaluate how well do the masses understand what they are consenting to or what they are heading towards, what principles and precepts they are following and why? Why are stone throwers even attacking vehicles and why mob violence and mentality has become a new craze and so much of legitimacy? In the recent past my vehicle was almost destroyed completely at Mochu-Budgam despite being a media person. The same Kashmiri youth were abusing us and hitting our vehicle all around. I am still wondering what our fault was and how will such treatments and violence against same Kashmiris or anyone else contribute to Azaadi? Sane Kashmiri minds especially youth have to disown such violent groups who attack even people for fun and see stone pelting at vehicles as a fight for freedom. Even the local community where such miscreants create such horror scenes have to intervene to discourage such rowdy behaviour.

It needs to be found as to why even the effective and intelligent change makers couldn’t completely curb the volatility and transform Kashmir into a peace zone? Why every Kashmiri feels demonized and insecure outside the valley and why still Kashmiri students are beaten even in universities and colleges in the country? The nation has to embrace Kashmiri if it loves Kashmir.

The need of the hour is to develop effective and functional links between local sentiments, embedded social problems and governance via policy-making in a range of contexts. Just continuing with and extending the learning summaries of key issues, closed door discourses, back door diplomacy channels, futile interlocutions, delaying tactics, ego clashes, oft repeated useless strategies, irresponsible political statements, insecurity hype for politics, and political provocations are not going to work, especially in today’s Kashmir which has a youth bulge that is highly aware, articulate and living amid a high political culture. At this juncture when so much of waywardness prevails, the desired actions and good and visible governance is much needed to make intervention efforts more inclusive. Actions which are politico-military and environmentally conscious need to be designed and made public friendly and practical.

For instance, fair and faster probes in all past human rights abuse cases, issuing clear statements on sensitive issues from local/regional security headquarters unlike the central hegemony, a people friendly stand of AFSPA, immediate steps to heal the bruised environment of Kashmir valley, addressing water issues, power projects and financial loss of the J&K, respecting the resilience and suffering of innocent Kashmiris’ and fast delivery of justice in pending cases and innocent killings, etc,. It is important to rehabilitate the victims and deliver justice in a fair manner and is quite possible.

Kashmir obviously and altogether needs a different policy and sensitive tackling at the central level along with a media that represents true Kashmir and only then peace in the region can be aspired. In addition, the task of sociological or psychological handling as well, needs to be assigned to good brains and astute minds. Kashmiris’ need space of all kinds and a friendly platform to give vent to their suppression and unheard grievances. In Kashmir the desired social change can be achieved if Kashmiris are empowered to exert influence and make decisions about their own social collective without any fear.

The time has definitely come when the Centre needs to think out of the box for a new Kashmir! Time has come when the half-widows of Dardpora and the rape victims of Kunan-Poshpora and parents/kins of the disappeared need to be given justice. The time has also come when the Gawkadal,Kupwara, Pathribal, Chhatisingpora and Wandhama massacre culprits need to be suitably punished for their crimes and firmly put behind bars.

Last Word

The time has come to love the Kashmiri first and then Kashmir! Time has come, above all, to negotiate the venomous dichotomies of Us vs Them, skilfully and in a manner commensurate with the prevailing situation, so as to ensure a progressive way forward rather than talking rising wahabism, radicalism, ummah vs nationalism as responsible for all the mess in Kashmir! I also do not buy the argument that the discourse in Kashmir is shifting to primacy of Islam also. It is definitely shifting to more resolve for Azadi and the graph of dissent is constantly increasing. It is adding more young angry minds and it is not just the spirit of jihad but in most cases the hunger for revenge and resistance against the unaccounted atrocities. There has to be some end to this chain reaction. So far, hardly a serious debate has been initiated by the institution of politics on such issues baring a few useless interlocutions. Kashmir needs to be delivered with humanity, democracy and Kashmiriyat what has so far only been a slogan.

Understanding Kashmir requires an in-depth and empathetic understanding of its sociology, history-a history of suffering, deceit, oppression and continuing conflict. The fact remains, that peace can be achieved in Kashmir by understanding Kashmir and going through the path of social justice and political solution.

[A version of this article first appeared in Kashmir Pen-A prestigious weekly based in Srinagar]

Trump Calls Saudi Arabia’s King Salman

$
0
0

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman on Sunday received a phone call from US President Donald Trump, during which the two leaders discussed international and regional developments as well as means to boost economic, security and military ties.

Among the issues discussed were the efforts to combat terrorism and extremism and means to finance those efforts, a Saudi Press Agency statement said.

The two leaders have identical views on the need for an adequate mechanism to combat those two challenges to the world security.

They also reaffirmed strong ties between the US and Saudi Arabia and the need for joint efforts to address attempts by others to destabilize regional security and intervene in countries’ internal affairs.

King Salman extended an invitation to Trump to visit Saudi Arabia as both sides agreed to exchange visits to boost joint cooperation and stimulate strategic partnerships between the two countries.

President Trump also had a phone call with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, on Sunday during which they explored ways of enhancing bilateral ties, UAE state news agency WAM reported.

Sheikh Mohammed affirmed that extremism and terrorism have no religion or identity and the groups that preach false slogans and ideologies seek to disguise their criminal intention in spreading chaos and destruction.

The two sides took stock of the latest regional issues and developments in light of the UAE and US’ vision regarding important ideas and initiatives that aim to put an end to the security and humanitarian deterioration in the region.

The also emphasized their commitment to realize stability and security in the region and support joint efforts to counter extremism, violence and terrorist groups that threaten security and safety of countries and peoples.

“The UAE is looking forward to overcome this stage of chaos and instability in the region through joint co-operation and efforts that serve mutual interests, achieve peace and stability and restore security,” Sheikh Mohammed said.

Ancient Indus Civilization’s Adaptation To Climate Change

$
0
0

With climate change in our own era becoming increasingly evident, it’s natural to wonder how our ancestors may have dealt with similar environmental circumstances. New research methods and technologies are able to shed light on climate patterns that took place thousands of years ago, giving us a new perspective on how cultures of the time coped with variable and changing environments.

A new article in the February issue of Current Anthropology explores the dynamics of adaptation and resilience in the face of a diverse and varied environmental context, using the case study of South Asia’s Indus Civilization (c.3000-1300 BC).

Integrating research carried out as part of the Land, Water and Settlement project — part of an ongoing collaboration between the University of Cambridge and Banaras Hindu University — that worked in northwest India between 2007 and 2014, the article looks at how Indus populations in north-west India interacted with their environment, and considers how that environment changed during periods of climate change.

Lead author, Dr. Cameron Petrie of the Division of Archaeology, University of Cambridge noted that “for most ancient complex societies, water was a critical factor, and the availability of water and the way that it was managed and used provide critical insight into human adaptation and the resilience of subsistence practices”.

Most early complex societies developed in regions where the climatic parameters faced by ancient subsistence farmers were varied, but not especially diverse. The Indus Civilization developed in a specific environmental context, where the winter and summer rainfall systems overlapped.

There is now evidence to show that this region was subject to climate change during the period when the Indus Civilization was at its height (c.2500-1900 BC). The Indus Civilization therefore provides a unique opportunity to understand how an ancient society coped with diverse and varied ecologies and change in the fundamental and underlying environmental parameters.

In the early Holocene, the Indus Civilization was situated in proximity to Kotla Dahar, a deep lake, implying regular and consistent rainfall input to offset evaporation, which given its location, would have been primarily monsoonal. The lake showed evidence for two dramatic decreases in monsoon rainfall and a progressive lowering of the lake level.

The second of these shows Kotla Dahar becoming completely ephemeral ca. 2200-2000 BC as a result of an abrupt weakening of the monsoon, and the weakening of the monsoon is visible in speleothem records in Oman and northeast India. The proximity of the Kotla Dahar record to the area occupied by Indus populations shows that climate must be formally considered as a contributing parameter in the process of Indus deurbanization, at least in the context of the plains of northwest India.

It has long been hypothesized that there was variation in the subsistence practices used by Indus populations and this fits with the theme of coping with diverse environments. Petrie commented that, “we argue that rather than being forced to intensify or diversify subsistence practices in response to climatic change, we have evidence for the use of millet, rice, and tropical pulses in the pre-urban and urban phases of the Indus Civilization. This evidence suggests that local Indus populations were already well adapted to living in varied and variable environmental conditions before the development of urban centers. It is also possible that these adaptations were beneficial when these populations were faced with changes to the local environment that were probably beyond the range of variation that they typically encountered”.

Reconsidering Mastectomies For Some Types Of Breast Cancer

$
0
0

Breast conserving therapy (BCT, breast conserving surgery combined with radiation therapy) is superior to mastectomy in certain types of breast cancer patients, according to results from the largest study to date, to be presented to the European Cancer Congress 2017  on Monday.

Professor Sabine Siesling, from the Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL) and University of Twente and Mirelle Lagendijk, MD, from the Department of Surgical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and colleagues from other hospitals, studied survival nationwide in nearly 130,000 breast cancer patients, divided into two groups: those diagnosed between 1999-2005 and those diagnosed between 2006-2012.

The patients selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry had no metastases (spread of the cancer to organs other than the lymph nodes close to the tumor). To obtain information on cause of death, data were linked to the cause of death register.

Although randomized trials initiated in the 1980s have shown equal survival outcomes for BCT and mastectomy, trials often exclude elderly patients or patients with existing disease other than breast cancer (comorbidity).

Studies with large, population-based groups, including comorbidity and those who are elderly, can add to the knowledge based on these trials and provide outcome that is more widely applicable and reflect daily practice.

Several recent population-based studies showed a survival advantage for BCT. However, these studies tended to lack long-term follow-up, evaluated limited patient numbers, had differences in medication after surgery between both groups and lacked the data on cause of death that are needed to evaluate breast cancer-specific survival. All this could have led to the introduction of confounding factors such as severity of disease or death due to other causes, the researchers say.

In the current study, a number of prognostic factors such as age, stage, comorbidity, hormonal receptor and HER2 status [2], and differences in systemic treatments (medication after surgery) were included and considered as possible explanations for the previously reported survival differences between BCT and mastectomy. This enabled the identification of possible prognostic factors that might, in future, predict which patients could benefit most from BCT.

“We looked at two different groups in order to allow us to compare long-term outcomes in a more historical versus a more recent cohort, evaluating patients that had been able to benefit from more sophisticated diagnostics and therapies. A considerably superior survival, both specific to breast cancer and from any cause of death, was found for BCT in the early stage T1-2N0-1M0 [3] cancers in both time cohorts,” sais Prof Siesling.

To identify patients who could possibly benefit most from BCT, both time cohorts were divided into subgroups. Evaluation of T1-2N0-1M0 cancers, which are at a stage when metastasis to distant organs has not yet occurred, in both groups showed a considerable advantage for BCT in patients with increasing age, those with comorbidity, and those who did not receive chemotherapy.

“Although this study is based on retrospective data with much detailed data, and residual confounding factors cannot be ruled out completely, we believe that this information will have potential to greatly improve shared treatment decision-making for future breast cancer patients in those aged over 50 years and those with comorbidity,” sais Prof Siesling.

“However, we would like to emphasize that these results do not mean that mastectomy is a bad choice. For patients for whom radiotherapy is not suitable or feasible due to social circumstances, for whom the risk of late side effects of radiotherapy is high, or who have the prospect of a poor aesthetic outcome following BCT, a mastectomy may still be the preferable treatment option. Our study showed that BCT is at least as good as mastectomy and that some patients might benefit more than others from BCT in the future,” said Prof Siesling.

Daniel Radcliffe Returning To London Stage

$
0
0

Huge news Harry Potter fans: Daniel Radcliffe will be returning to the London stage this year for an extended run.

It’s definitely not for West End smash Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, but Daniel has lined up an exciting starring role in The Old Vic’s revival of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead, Digital Spy said.

Daniel will star with The Hour’s Joshua McGuire as the bumbling title characters, who you’ll surely remember for their embarrassing exploits in a little play called Hamlet, Digital Spy said.

Playwright Tom Stoppard’s revolutionary reinvention of these two minor characters has been thrilling audiences worldwide for the last 50 years, so now’s the perfect time for a revival.

Directing this version of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead will be David Leveaux, who has previously worked with the Royal Shakespeare Company, as well as on Broadway with The Glass Menagerie, Nine and Closer (among many others).

Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead is currently scheduled to run from Saturday, February 25 through Saturday, April 29 at The Old Vic in celebration of its 50th anniversary. For ticket info, click here.

If you can’t make it The Old Vic, don’t fret. This very special revival will beamed live to cinemas on April 20 as part of National Theatre Live, Digital Spy said.

Radcliffe is a veteran of the stage at just 27 years old, having first made waves in Equus and later for his critically-acclaimed performances in the Broadway revival of How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying and The Cripple of Inishmaan.


Robert Reich: Trump And Bannon’s ‘America First’– OpEd

$
0
0

Donald Trump has reorganized the National Security Council – elevating his chief political strategist Steve Bannon, and demoting the Director of National Intelligence and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Bannon will join the NSC’s principals committee, the top inter-agency group advising the President on national security.

Meanwhile, the Director of National Intelligence and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff will now attend meetings only when “issues pertaining to their responsibilities and expertise are to be discussed,” according to the presidential memorandum issued Saturday.

Political strategists have never before participated in National Security Council principals meetings because the NSC is supposed to give presidents nonpartisan, factual advice.

But forget facts. Forget analysis. This is the Trump administration.

And what does Bannon have to bring to the table?

In case you forgot, before joining Donald Trump’s inner circle Bannon headed Breitbart News, a far-right media outlet that has promoted conspiracy theories and is a platform for the alt-right movement, which espouses white nationalism.

This is truly scary.

Former National Security Adviser Susan Rice calls the move “stone cold crazy.” Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who also served under George W. Bush, says the demotions are a “big mistake.”

Republican Sen. John McCain, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, told CBS News, “I am worried about the National Security Council. … The appointment of Mr. Bannon is a radical departure from any National Security Council in history.” McCain added that the “one person who is indispensable would be the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in my view.”

Here’s the big worry. Trump is unhinged and ignorant. Bannon is nuts and malicious. If not supervised by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, their decisions could endanger the world.

In Trump’s and Bannon’s view, foreign relations is a zero-sum game. If another nation gains, we lose. As Trump declared at his inaugural: “From this day forward, it’s going to be only America First.”

Some of you are old enough to recall John F. Kennedy’s inaugural, when the young president pledged to support any friend and oppose any foe to assure the success of liberty.

But Trump makes no distinction between friend and foe, and no reference to liberty. As conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer observes, Trump’s view is that all other nations are out to use, exploit and surpass us.

Not incidentally, “America First” was the name of the pro-Nazi group led by Charles Lindbergh that bitterly fought FDR before U.S. entry into World War II to keep America neutral between Churchill’s Britain and Hitler’s Reich.

Trump’s and Bannon’s version of “America First” is no less dangerous. It is alienating America from the rest of the world, destroying our nation’s moral authority abroad, and risking everything we love about our country.

Unsupervised by people who know what they’re doing. Trump and Bannon could also bring the world closer to a nuclear holocaust.

Drain The Neo-Con/Neo-Liberal Deep State Micro-Swamp – OpEd

$
0
0

Now that President Donald Trump is, in a lightening fast, almost blitzkrieg manner, using his first weeks to pass monumentally powerful Executive Orders, in order to demolish and devastate the existing United States Deep State Neo-Conservative/Neo-Liberal Establishment, he must also simultaneously watch his back and be cognizant of the tens of millions of government micro-infiltrators, still taking their marching orders from the proverbial “head of the snake.”

In other words, the devil is in the details in that the minions, troops, order-followers, agents, and hatchet men (and women) of the U.S. Deep State Neo-Conservative/Neo-Liberal Establishment still lurk in the shadows, populating nearly every aspect and level of the U.S. Government, from the top on down, to the most low level staffer in the administrative offices of every locale, in every state, city, town, and municipality in America.

And just because their jobs may be small, or their jurisdiction, their potential to do great harm still exists.

When Vladimir Putin took power back from the Oligarchs/Plutocrats in Russia in the late 1990s early 2000s, he was also faced with a daunting task, but Donald Trump’s job is going to be much harder.

Because in Russia, they did not have as much of a free press who could criticize him so freely, and also Russia had a much more top-down, executory, and iron fist brand of legislative/executive power, wherein the President could issue edicts and orders, smashing the obstacles to his power and would-be usurpers/saboteurs within his own government one by one, or group by group, thus helping to ensure the ultimate success of his agenda of pure love and loyalty to his Russian People.

But in America, we have these great gifts with the “free press,” “freedom of speech,” and “whistleblower protection,” which, if taken at face value, are extremely great and wonderful things, but if taken in the context that our macro (and micro) government employees have been thoroughly stocked and decked with Deep State Neo-Con/Neo-Liberal loyalists for the better part of the last 8 years under the Obama Administration, and actually even 28-30 years if you include the successive Neo-Con/Neo-Liberal regimes under Presidents Obama, George W Bush, Clinton, and George H W Bush Sr, the American People might be in big trouble.

This is because these Deep State Neo-Con/Neo-Liberal Establishment government infiltrators/agents by and large have been conditioned to HATE Donald Trump, everything that he stands for, and by proxy, everything that the vast majority of Americans have also woken up to stand for – which is a peaceful non-violent revolution against the Globalist New World Order Deep State Oligarchs/Plutocrats manifesting themselves with their Neo-Con/Neo-Liberal agents manning every governmental (and mainstream media) job from the lowest level post office worker, to the local police department/district attorney/prosecutors office, federal and state judiciary, attorneys general in all 50 states, governors, congressmen, senators – hell, even the DMV in each and every state.

The enormous potential for sabotage, politically motivated investigations/prosecutions/indictments/civil lawsuits, and other types of proverbial “throwing a monkey wrench” into the well-oiled pro-America First machine that President Donald Trump is now trying to feverishly re-construct and re-build is at huge, great risk from the potential enemies within.

President Donald Trump needs to take immediate preventative and precautionary measures to ensure that none of his executive actions, cabinet members, government appointees, agenda, or even citizen loyalists do not get “picked off” one by one by the Deep State Neo-Con/Neo-Liberal remnant infiltrators currently inhabiting his own government, like so many sleeper cells within any terrorist infrastructure.

Each and every investigation, prosecution, indictment, civil lawsuit, or targeted legal harassment against President Donald Trump must now be fully vetted and viewed with a jaundiced eye by the American People, because George Soros’ self-described “Purple Revolution” declared after the defeat of his hand-picked successor, Hillary and Bill Clinton, is far from over yet.

And people like George Soros, who recently went on record stating that he was lobbying and paying for new prosecutors and district attorneys all across the United States to “go after” individual conservatives or other pro America-Firsters, or anyone else on his and his colleagues’ “shit list,” should fill every patriotic American’s heart with abject cold and icy fear, terror, and then anger.

The Second American Revolution isn’t over just yet, in fact, it is only just beginning, and the Globalist Deep State Neo-Con/Neo-Liberal Establishment Empire is 100% totally and completely confident that it will eventually quash this “impudent insurrection,” and mightily and handily crush this “upstart rebellion” in the form of Donald Trump and his hundreds of millions of American (and global) followers.

We as Americans must be eternally vigilant, especially now, if we wish to remain as a Free People – and this must be accomplished by staying loyal to our President, being exceedingly wary and suspicious over any investigation/prosecution/indictment/civil lawsuit instigated by any of the Deep State Oligarch/Plutocrat Neo-Con/Neo-Liberal Establishment infiltrator remnants of the previous 30 years of their regime control, or any other targeted harassment/sabotage against both him, his Cabinet, his newly forming government, and above all, his loyalists within the American general population, on both the federal macro level, all the way down to the local micro level, just like the Russian People did under their much beloved and heroic President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who, as promised, eventually and ultimately delivered his People from the evil of the Oligarchs/Plutocrats in the form of the Communists, plaguing his nation from 1917 to 1999.

This article was published at Veteran News Now

US-UK: The Not-So-Special Relationship – OpEd

$
0
0

The outcomes of both Brexit and the US election were unexpected, disruptive, and driven by a similar surge of nationalism. And so you’d think that the first meeting of Prime Minister Theresa May and President Donald Trump would be a celebratory affair. It certainly hasn’t felt like that.

When Prime Minister May arrived yesterday, the Tory press suggested she would be “igniting a political romance.” Less sanguine, the New York Times described it as a meeting between a “Stiff Headmistress” and the “Great Salesman.”

On the one hand, some may describe May’s speech to Republicans yesterday as timid. She was certainly on board for greater isolationism.

“The days of Britain and America intervening in sovereign countries in an attempt to remake the world in our own image are over,” she said, a quoted by the Telegraph. “But nor can we afford to stand idly by when the threat is real and when it is in our own interests to intervene.”

But apart from throwing this bone to Trump, reality came crashing down on the difficulties of a realist dealing with another realist. Britain has national interests, some of which are not yet evidently supported by President Trump. Some of those interests collide with casual statements by the US Commander-in-Chief, such as NATO being “obsolete,” or applauding the demise of the European Union.

After some gently pointed comments on Trump’s perceived leanings toward Russia, May introduced the “engage, but be aware” mantra for dealing with Putin.  This was partly successful. The press conference today featured both Trump and May expressing “100%” commitment to NATO.

But ultimately, the tepid cooperation achieved during this visit cannot overcome the fact that the UK is now operating in a different international environment with Trump in the White House, and that may not be a bad thing. Mrs. May is under extraodrinary domestic pressure to show that the UK still has its most important friend – but it is much easier to work on things together than to both agree against intervention. Certainly the adventurism undertaken as part of the long-running special relationship has not always borne fruit, and more often, damage.

However one wonders if the Brexiteers would have been as enthusiastic to leave the EU if they knew that a new wave of isolationism were about to crest on their Western shores.

Britain voted for greater sovereignty, and that’s their decision, whatever we may think of it. But there is a reason why these alliances and multilateral institutions were formed in the first place, and the value of a secure, united Europe really shouldn’t be a matter of debate.  If everyone wants to go it alone, they will quickly discover the ravages of an international system without rules, without norms, without friends. And that will benefit precisely no one.

Exploring Victorian Craze Over The Fear Of Cats

$
0
0

The EU-funded DISEASES project has been exploring how the Victorians diagnosed, understood and dealt with many of the phenomena related to stress and overload that characterize today’s modern globalized society.

One intriguing discovery has been on the Victorian emphasis on phobias, particularly ailurophobia – the fear of cats.

Phobias are a normal part of every day and most people will admit to having at least one. However, it was really only in the late nineteenth century that medicine turned its attention to forms of irrational fears, as the DISEASES project has been finding out.

Its research highlights how it was a German physician, Carl Westphal, who made the initial diagnosis of agoraphobia (fear of open spaces) in 1871 after studying three otherwise sane and rational professional men who were terrified when having to cross an open city space. Following this diagnosis, the notion that such individuals could be overtaken by various forms of inexplicable fear was quickly taken up by both medical practitioners and the era’s popular culture.

Indeed, American psychologist G Stanley Hall identified 136 different forms of pathological fear, all possessing their own Greek or Latinate names. These included more commonly recognised phobias such as agoraphobia and claustrophobia but also some very Victorian-esque fears, including amakophobia (fear of carriages), pteronophobia (fear of feathers) and hypegiaphobia (fear of responsibility).

However, one phobia that attracted a particularly high amount of attention from Victorian contemporaries was ailurophobia – the fear of cats. Hall, along with his colleague Silas Weir Mitchell, sent out forms and questionnaires to try and understand the various forms and potential causes of this feline fear. Mitchell went further, trying to ascertain whether the claims of some sufferers that they could always detect if a cat was in a room (even if they couldn’t see or smell it) were in fact true.

He conducted experiments, such as placing sufferers into a room with a hidden cat, to see if they picked up the animal’s presence. Initially skeptical, he eventually became more convinced that many of his patients could always sense them. When trying to account for the phobia, he ruled out asthma and evolutionary inherited fears (for example, people who are scared of cats are perfectly fine to look at lions, tigers etc.).

Eventually he suggested that emanations from the cat ‘may affect the nervous system through the nasal membrane, although recognized as odors.’ He also remained baffled over why cats seemed to have an urge to get as close as possible to individuals who were scared of them – ‘even strange cats seem to have an unusual desire to be near them [ailurophobia sufferers], to jump on their laps or to follow them.’

According to the DISEASES project team, the Victorian urge to classify a vivid cultural and psychological map of fears and anxieties was the result of a rapidly changing, industrializing society, where new scientific theories were starting to challenge long-held religious explanations and dogma.

Consequently, in an age reminiscent of our Victorian forbearers, where societies are again struggling to adapt to rapid technological, social and economic changes, DISEASES aims to engage the Victorian experience to better understand and contextualise our own twenty-first century response to modernity’s continued challenges. The project, coordinated from Oxford University, will run until January 2019 and has received just over EUR 3.5 million in EU funding.

Does Pope Francis Really Believe ‘Communists Think Like Christians’? – OpEd

$
0
0

By Samuel Gregg*

Marxists, Marxist ideas and Marxist regimes have brought death and destruction to millions. Yet according to Pope Francis, “if anything, the communists think like Christians.” What’s going on here?

Within the first year of his pontificate, Francis’s strong criticisms of economic globalization and capitalism resulted in him being accused of having Marxist sympathies. Such charges, however, are demonstrably false.

For one thing, Francis has specified that Communism is a mistaken idea. Back in a 2013 interview with the Italian newspaper La Stampa, the pope stated that “Marxist ideology is wrong.” Likewise, the Argentine home-grown “theology of the people” which has influenced Francis’s thought explicitly rejects Marxist philosophy and analysis. Nor has Francis hesitated to canonize Catholics martyred by Communist regimes. He’s even conferred a cardinal’s hat upon an Albanian priest, Father Ernest Troshani Simoni, who was twice sentenced to death by Enver Hoxha’s dictatorship — one of the very worst Communist regimes. These aren’t the words or actions of a Communist fellow-traveler or apologist.

Nevertheless, in the same interview in which Francis described Communism as wrong, he immediately added, “But I have met many Marxists in my life who are good people.” One wonders if the pope would say something similar, for example, about Nazis: “But I have met many Nazis in my life who are good people.”

There’s little in Marxist ideology (let alone practice) to suggest that “communists think like Christians” about very much at all.

Somehow, I doubt it — even though political movements and regimes lead by Marxists and guided by Communist ideologies invariably embrace methods indistinguishable from those of National Socialist Germany. Indeed, if one goes simply by the numbers, Communists have slaughtered millions more people than the Nazis. In Pope Francis’s Argentina, Marxist movements such as the Ejército Revolucionario del Pueblo had no qualms about engaging in kidnappings and assassinations in the late-1960s and early-1970s as part of their effort to establish a dictatorship of the proletariat.

Do Communists Care About the Poor?

One possible interpretation of the pope’s words about Communism is that they reflect his belief that some people are drawn to Marxism because they regard Communism as being on the side of the world’s underdogs. During a 2015 interview, the pope suggested that Communists were, in a way, closet Christians. They had stolen, he said, “the flag of the poor” from Christians.

These themes resurfaced in a more recent interview of Francis — this time conducted by the self-described atheist, the 92 year-old Italian journalist Eugenio Scalfari.

Caution is advised when reading any of Scalfari’s interviews. Scalfari’s renditions of his conversations with prominent figures are based on memory rather than notes or recordings. That’s bound to raise questions about the veracity of what’s written (not to mention the prudence of talking to Scalfari, but that’s a different matter). Scalfari’s questions are also designed to encourage the pope to make controversial remarks. In most cases, Francis politely deflects them.

At the same time, some of Francis’s comments in his latest Scalfari interview mirrors odd statements he’s made on other occasions. Consider what Francis says about Communists in response to Scalfari’s comments about equality:

Eugenio Scalfari: So you yearn for a society where equality dominates. This, as you know, is the program of Marxist socialism and then of communism. Are you therefore thinking of a Marxist type of society?

Francis: It has been said many times and my response has always been that, if anything, it is the communists who think like Christians. Christ spoke of a society where the poor, the weak and the marginalized have the right to decide. Not demagogues, not Barabbas, but the people, the poor, whether they have faith in a transcendent God or not. It is they who must help to achieve equality and freedom.

The problem with these words is that the most cursory reading of standard Marxist texts soon indicates that there’s little in Marxist ideology (let alone practice) to suggest that “communists think like Christians” about very much at all.

In the first place, Marxism is rooted in atheism and philosophical materialism. Christianity is not. That’s a rather fundamental and irreconcilable difference. Second, virtually all Marxist thinkers and practitioners — Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Castro, Che Guevara, Pol Pot, etc. — hold that the ends justifies the means. Small “o” orthodox Christianity, with its insistence upon moral absolutes which admit of no exception, specifically refutes that claim. Third, Marxism, Marxists and Marxist movements don’t see the poor as Christianity does: i.e., as human beings who need to be loved and assisted.

Communism views the poor — like all human beings — as simply moving-parts of the dialectics of history.

Instead Communism views the poor — like all human beings — as simply moving-parts of the dialectics of history. The economically less-well off, from a Marxist standpoint, have no intrinsic worth by virtue of their poverty or status as human beings. Such a materialist and instrumentalist perspective is light-years away from Christianity’s view of those in poverty and human beings more generally.

Inequality, Inequality, Inequality

So what does Francis mean when he says that “the communists think like Christians”? A clue to the pope’s thinking may be found with his references to equality in his most recent Scalfari interview. The pope argues, for instance, that

What we want is a battle against inequality, this is the greatest evil that exists in the world. It is money that creates it and that goes against those measures that try to make wealth more widespread and thus promote equality.

From his pontificate’s beginning, Francis has focused, laser-like, on this inequality theme. As the words above indicate, the specific inequality which the pope has in mind is economic inequality.

But is economic inequality really the greatest evil in the world today? Is economic inequality at the root of Islamic terrorism, dictatorial regimes like North Korea, the termination of millions of unborn-children in the West, resurgent anti-Semitism, or the relentless efforts to legalize euthanasia? There’s no evidence, for instance, that economic inequality causes terrorism.

Moreover, economic inequality isn’t always wrong. There’s nothing in Catholic teaching to suggest that wealth and income inequalities are intrinsically evil. They’re often quite justified. The person willing to take on more responsibility, for instance, in creating and managing an enterprise is usually entitled to a greater share of profits than the employee who assumes less responsibility and who didn’t take the risk of starting the business in the first place.

Another thing that Christians should keep in mind — but sometimes don’t — is that inequality and poverty aren’t the same thing. It’s theoretically possible for everyone to be economically equal because they are equally poor. It’s also conceivable for a society to have vast wealth and income disparities, and for the very same society to have very few people who are materially poor.

Of course, some forms of economic inequality are unjust. One contemporary example is crony capitalism. In these economic arrangements, collusion between businesses, politicians and regulators replaces free competition under the rule of law. If there’s a major culprit (“the money”) for unjust forms of economic inequality today, it’s crony capitalists and their political and bureaucratic enablers.

Crony capitalism should be — but isn’t — the target of Christian critique. Catholic social teaching says exactly nothing about the subject. Part of the difficulty with the pope’s commentary on these issues is that he, like many other good people, doesn’t seem to recognize that market economies are premised on the rejection of governments granting privileges to any particular group. That’s the core argument made in Book Four of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations (1776).

One of Pope Francis’s many paradoxes is that, while he consistently and rightly denounces any idolatry of wealth and the type of materialist mindset which reduces everything to economics, the pope often articulates curiously economistic explanations for the world’s ills. Material poverty is something all Christians must be committed to working to reduce. Let’s not pretend, however, that Christians and Marxists think the same way about poverty — or equality for that matter. The simple truth is that they don’t.

This article first appeared at The Stream.

About the author:
*Dr. Samuel Gregg
is director of research at the Acton Institute. He has written and spoken extensively on questions of political economy, economic history, ethics in finance, and natural law theory. He has an MA in political philosophy from the University of Melbourne, and a Doctor of Philosophy degree in moral philosophy and political economy from the University of Oxford, where he worked under the supervision of Professor John Finnis.

Source:
This article was published by The Acton Institute

Link Between Diabetes And Pancreatic Cancer

$
0
0

Patients and their doctors should be aware that the onset of diabetes, or a rapid deterioration in existing diabetes that requires more aggressive treatment, could be a sign of early, hidden pancreatic cancer, according to research presented at the European Cancer Congress 2017 [1]  on Monday.

Ms Alice Koechlin, from the International Prevention Research Institute in Lyon, France, told the meeting that an analysis linking nearly a million patients with type 2 diabetes in Lombardy (Italy) and Belgium with recorded cases of pancreatic cancer showed that 50% of all pancreatic cancers cases in the two regions were diagnosed within one year of patients being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and being given their first prescription to control it.

“In Belgium 25% of cases were diagnosed within 90 days and in Lombardy it was 18%. After the first year, the proportion of diagnosed pancreatic cancers dropped dramatically,” she said. The researchers found that compared with patients who were able to continue with oral anti-diabetic drugs, patients in Belgium and in Lombardy had a 3.5-fold greater risk of being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the first three months after their first prescription for incretins (metabolic hormones that stimulate the pancreas to produce more insulin to lower blood glucose levels); this fell to a 2.3-fold risk in the next three to six months, to a two-fold risk for the next six to 12 months and 1.7-fold risk after the first year.

Among patients who already had type 2 diabetes and were managing it with oral anti-diabetic drugs, the switch to incretins or insulin happened faster among diabetic patients who were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. In addition, a deterioration in their condition that necessitated them being switched to more aggressive anti-diabetic therapy with injections of insulin was associated with a seven-fold increased risk of being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer.

Ms Alice Koechlin, Professor Philippe Autier (also from the International Prevention Research Institute) and colleagues in Belgium and Italy used prescription data to identify 368,377 patients with type 2 diabetes in Belgium between 2008 and 2013 and 456,311 patients in Lombardy between 2008 and 2012. The data were linked to pancreatic cancer cases in the Belgian Cancer Registry and the hospital discharge databases in Lombardy. There were 885 and 1,872 cases of pancreatic cancer diagnosed during this time in Belgium and Lombardy respectively.

Ms Koechlin Autier said: “Although it has been known for some time that there is an association between type 2 diabetes and pancreatic cancer, the relationship between the two conditions is complex. Incretin therapies reduce diabetic hyperglycemia through stimulating the release of insulin by the pancreas. These drugs are typically prescribed when the oral anti-diabetic drugs can no longer control blood glucose levels. Because of their stimulating effects on the pancreas, it has long been thought that the incretin therapies could promote the occurrence of pancreatic cancer. However, it is known that pancreatic cancer can cause diabetes. Our study shows that incretin therapies are often prescribed to patients whose diabetes is caused by a still undiagnosed pancreatic cancer. Because the pancreatic cancer finally becomes symptomatic and is thus diagnosed, it looks like it is the intake of incretin drugs that could be the trigger of the pancreatic cancer, while in reality, it is the pancreatic cancer that causes a deterioration of diabetes, which is followed by the prescription of incretins. This phenomenon is called ‘reverse causation’. Our study also shows that the reverse causation observed for incretin drugs is also observed for other anti-diabetic therapies, in particular for insulin therapy.

“Doctors and their diabetic patients should be aware that the onset of diabetes or rapidly deteriorating diabetes could be the first sign of hidden pancreatic cancer, and steps should be taken to investigate it.”

However, investigating whether or not a patient has undiagnosed pancreatic cancer is difficult, and the researchers say that using prescription databases in the way that they have could help to develop methods to identify which patients may have early, non-symptomatic pancreatic cancer.

“There is currently no good, non-invasive method for detecting pancreatic cancer that is not yet showing any visible signs or symptoms. We hope that our results will encourage the search for blood markers indicating the presence of pancreatic cancer, which could guide decisions to perform a confirmation examination like endoscopy,” concluded Ms Koechlin.

Pancreatic cancer is one of the most lethal cancers, partly because it is difficult to detect at an early stage and because there are few effective treatments for it. Less than one per cent of people live for ten or more years after a diagnosis. In Europe around 104,000 new cases were diagnosed in 2012 and approximately the same number of people died from it. Worldwide there were an estimated 338,000 cases of pancreatic cancer diagnosed in 2012 and 330,000 people died from it.

Chair of the Congress and President of ECCO, Professor Peter Naredi, from the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden, who was not involved with the research, commented: “Due to the severity of pancreatic cancer and because only a minority of cases are detected at a curable stage, we must find better ways for early detection. Some advances have been made in the search for blood biomarkers. The study by Autier and colleagues opens up the possibility to combine the diagnosis of an associated disease, type 2 diabetes, with blood biomarkers. It is a step in the right direction if we can increase the proportion of early diagnosed pancreatic cancers.”

[1] The European Cancer Congress is the only truly multidisciplinary oncology congress in the world. It is organised by the European CanCer Organisation (ECCO), a not-for-profit federation of 25 member societies, representing over 80,000 professionals working in cancer.
[2] This study was part of the Post-authorisation safety study (PASS) of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists and Risk of Acute Pancreatitis, Pancreas Cancer and Medullary Thyroid Cancer requested by the European Medicine Agency (EMA, London). The protocol was developed through interaction between iPRI and the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency. The PASS was funded by Sanofi. The sponsor had no influence on the study design, conduct, analysis and reporting.

Artificial Skin Created That ‘Feels’ Temperature Changes

$
0
0

A team of engineers and scientists at Caltech and ETH Zurich have developed an artificial skin capable of detecting temperature changes using a mechanism similar to the one used by the organ that allows pit vipers to sense their prey.

The material could be grafted onto prosthetic limbs to restore temperature sensing in amputees. It could also be applied to first-aid bandages to alert health professionals of a temperature increase — a sign of infection — in wounds.

A paper about the new material will be published in Science Robotics on February 1.

While fabricating synthetic woods in a petri dish, a team led by Caltech’s Chiara Daraio created a material that exhibited an electrical response to temperature changes in the lab. It turned out that the component responsible for the temperature sensitivity was pectin, a long-chain molecule present in plant cell walls.

“Pectin is widely used in the food industry as a jellifying agent; it’s what you use to make jam. So it’s easy to obtain and also very cheap,” said Daraio, professor of mechanical engineering and applied physics in the Division of Engineering and Applied Science.

Intrigued, the team shifted its attention to pectin and ultimately created a thin, transparent flexible film of pectin and water, which can be as little as 20 micrometers thick (equivalent to the diameter of a human hair). Pectin molecules in the film have a weakly bonded double-strand structure that contains calcium ions. As temperature increases, these bonds break down and the double strands “unzip,” releasing the positively charged calcium ions.

Either the increased concentration of free calcium ions or their increased mobility (likely both, the researchers speculate) results in a decrease in the electrical resistance throughout the material, which can be detected with a multimeter connected to electrodes embedded in the film.

The film senses temperature using a mechanism similar — but not identical — to the pit organs in vipers, which allow the snakes to sense warm prey in the dark by detecting radiated heat. In those organs, ion channels in the cell membrane of sensory nerve fibers expand as temperature increases. This dilation allows calcium ions to flow, triggering electrical impulses.

Existing electronic skins can sense temperature changes of less than a tenth of a degree Celsius across a 5-degree temperature range. The new skin can sense changes that are an order of magnitude smaller and have a responsivity that is two orders of magnitude larger than those of other electronic skins over a 45-degree temperature range.

So far, the skin is capable of detecting these tiny changes across a range of temperatures roughly between 5 to 50 degrees Celsius (about 41 to 158 degrees Fahrenheit), which is useful for robotics and biomedical applications. Next, Daraio’s team would like to boost that up to 90 degrees Celsius (194 degrees Fahrenheit). This would make pectin sensors useful for industrial applications, such as thermal sensors in consumer electronics or robotic skins to augment human-robot interactions. To do so, they will need to change the fabrication process they now use to create the material, as that process leads to the presence of water–which tends to bubble or evaporate at high temperatures.


Tariffs Are Falling Everywhere But In America – OpEd

$
0
0

By Mitchell Blatt*

Donald Trump has proposed a 20 percent tariff to pay for his proposed barrier on the border with Mexico. During the campaign, he often proposed raising tariffs on China up to 40 percent and renegotiating or leaving trade deals. Among his first executive orders was one to call for “renegotiating” NAFTA and leaving the Trans Pacific Partnership.

Trump’s argument for doing so rests on the case that America imports a lot of goods and thus has a high trade deficit and that he and some of the economists he has surrounded himself with, such as Peter Navarro, believe that America’s trade deficit is causing manufacturing jobs to be lost to countries with low wages, like China.

Trump is right that the U.S. has a high trade deficit, though he often espouses false and exaggerated numbers. In one debate he said the U.S. had an $800 billion trade deficit. In fact, the U.S. had a $484 billion trade deficit (deficit in current account balance) in 2015. Canada and Mexico were also among the top seven.

However, the United States also has the largest economy in the world. America’s trade deficit is nearly the same as that of Canada and Mexico as a percentage of GDP. Indeed, according to the IMF, the three countries rank consecutively.

Tariffs around the world have been falling for years as countries embrace free trade. While Mexico’s average tariffs remains higher and more volatile than Canada’s or America’s, it has fallen since 1990.

Source: Google Data Explorer

Source: Google Data Explorer

Tariffs in important Asian countries have fallen “bigly.” China’s average tariff fell from over 30% in 1992 to less than 5% by 2014. When China joined the WTO in 2001, its tariff fell from close to 15% to 10% the next year.

Source: Google Public Data Explorer

Source: Google Public Data Explorer

Along with a decrease in tariffs, major Asian countries have also seen increases in imports.

Source: Google Public Data Explorer

Source: Google Public Data Explorer

The number of manufacturing jobs has been decreasing in the United States since the 1960’s. And the number of jobs in agriculture has continued to decline since the 1800’s.

Source: Minn Post

Source: Minn Post

The decline of manufacturing jobs is roughly in line with the decline of manufacturing as a percentage of economic output.

Source: Minn Post

Source: Minn Post

The amount manufacturing is contributing the whole world’s economy is decreasing.

Source: World Bank information

Source: World Bank information

But at the same time, commerce and employment in services is increasing.

Source: Minn Post

Source: Minn Post

Indeed, the trend towards services is also happening across the world economy.

Source: World Bank data

Source: World Bank data

The amount services contribute to the economy is also increasing in China, Korea, and Japan.

Source: Google Data Explorer

Source: Google Data Explorer

The amount the industrial sector contributes to Asian economies hasn’t increased markedly. It has fallen in Japan almost continuously since 1992 and nearly remained stable in China and Korea. It has fallen in China since 2006. While the data from the Asian Development Bank did not include manufacturing data, industrial data includes manufacturing, but also agriculture, construction, and forestry–goods-producing sectors.

Source: Google Public Data Explorer

Source: Google Public Data Explorer

About the author:
*Mitchell Blatt moved to China in 2012, and since then he has traveled and written about politics and culture throughout Asia. A writer and journalist, based in China, he is the lead author of Panda Guides Hong Kong guidebook and a contributor to outlets including The Federalist, China.org.cn, The Daily Caller, and Vagabond Journey. Fluent in Chinese, he has lived and traveled in Asia for three years, blogging about his travels at ChinaTravelWriter.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @MitchBlatt.

Pakistan-Saudi Relations: Diplomatic Reality Versus Social Reality – OpEd

$
0
0

In the wake of tension between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran, Pakistan once again becomes an important asset to the Saudis. Nothing proves this fact more than the recent visit of the Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Muhammad Bin Salman to Pakistan for an assurance from the Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif that Pakistan stands strong with the House of Saud.

In a time where the social and political scene in the Middle East has completely shifted, Saudi Arabia finds itself cornered and alone. Due to the structural factors, economic, and sociopolitical factors, the crisis in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Egypt have left Saudi Arabia with only one trustworthy friend in the Eastern region, Pakistan. In a face-off with Iran for executing the prominent Shiite leader, Nimr Al Nimr, Saudi Arabia is in need of Pakistan; however, one cannot disregard the discrepancy between the diplomatic reality and the social reality between the two countries that pledged allegiance to each other for the days to come.

What is the diplomatic reality of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? Jonah Blank, a senior Political Scientist with the Rand Corporation reported that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are a “wild card” for each other. The two Sunni majority strongholds need each other for their advancement and survival in the Eastern region. Saudi Arabia’s strong ideological approach is in conflict with the Iran’s ideological mindset. Additionally, Saudi Arabia serves as the customary voice of the Muslim world that it cannot spread to other Muslim nations without Pakistan.

Secondly, it needs Pakistan to diffuse the Iranian (Shiite) voice and, it also needs Pakistan’s military support from the chaos that spread to Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Egypt while Iran continues to create more challenges for the Saudis. Saudi Arabia’s stand is clear on Iran. The late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud advised the United States Government against Iran to “cut off the head snake.” Such rhetoric had already set the seeds of hostility deeper. Presently, the US’ own approach towards Iran has changed with Iran’s promise to U.S.A to stall its nuclear objectives. Saudi Arabia understands such worrisome situation, but holds off from aggravating the West. Saudi Arabia hoped, or perhaps it still hopes that the U.S.A will come to protect the Kingdom if it continues to purchase the weapons from the US, but no guarantee is given to Saudi Arabia. This only leaves Saudi Arabia with Pakistan that is nuclear-equipped, holds some stability and stands ready with its globally recognized militia.

On the other hand, Pakistan gained much from Saudi Arabia. Pakistan has an open credit line from the Kingdom without any strict rules or regulations. The Kingdom finds it in its favor to aid Pakistan with billions of dollars, low oil prices, and respects the Prime Minister Nawaz Shariff’s once-personal relations with the Royal family.

Pakistan’s chances of appearing as a strong nation in the Muslim world are now greater than before. Appearance as a leading nation along with Saudi Arabia opens doors of trust and companionship for Pakistan to other Muslim nations. Pakistan has now the upper hand of showing to the rest of the Muslim world that it can stand as a strong ally when called to defend another Muslim country; however, this begs another important question.

Why has Pakistan not stepped in to defend Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Palestine from collapsing? The first reason is quite simple. Pakistan fights on both ends of its borders to protect itself from the affliction of terrorism in a time where the West watches every move the country makes. Secondly, it has to keep a constant eye on the India-Pakistan border with keeping in mind that India-Iran ties are strengthening.

More importantly, the Middle Eastern states like Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Egypt collapsed due to internal and regional conflicts that overlapped each other. The states were horribly affected by the administrative incompetence, ideological differences, and double-dealings where each Middle Eastern state displayed no true faith in each other. Pakistan could not be a part of the continuous power-struggle amongst the Middle Eastern nations. The Arab League proved futile, leaving Saudi Arabia to turn to Pakistan as an important Muslim collaborator. Nonetheless, there exist two different realities, a gap between political relations and the social relations of two nations.

The social reality of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is much different. Pakistani Ambassador Mohammed Naeem Khan stated in Saudi Arabia that Pakistanis were “committed and conscientious workers” in the Kingdom because of their geographical closeness as well as religion and age-old ties. In Saudi Arabia where Pakistani citizens are the largest expat group, Pakistanis have little to no value in the Kingdom as they are seen as “miskeen,” another word for needy. This attitude of Saudis sets a discriminatory attitude, and the Saudi Kingdom is yet to change this view of their own countrymen. It failed to recognize that the labor class demands fair wages in return for the services.

Sultan Al-Sughair, a correspondent of the Arab News highlighted a study conducted in Kingdom that points out the very problem of expat workers suffering. He writes, “Occupational diseases are no longer physical in nature, but also extend to psychological injuries of workers that result in imbalances in their nervous systems, thus affecting their job opportunities and decreasing their capabilities and skills, a study has found.” The Kingdom recognizes the psychosocial damage that is being done yet it does not make any efforts to change the mindset of the nation.

The strict Saudi labor laws exist for the expats who mainly belong to Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The Saudi government shows no mercy to the Pakistanis who demand an easy exit and re-entry into the Kingdom with respectable working conditions. Many Pakistani who belong to the labor class are stuck in the Kingdom because the Kingdom does not pardon the Pakistani citizens for little inconveniences that mainly come from the Kefeel system. The diplomatic relations between the two countries do not reflect the social reality of many Pakistanis who live and work in the Kingdom. With this, the Pakistani consulates in Riyadh and Jeddah sit idle with their inability to improve the working conditions of the 1.5 million Pakistanis currently residing in the Kingdom. The little effort that Pakistani Embassy in Saudi Arabia made to find the details of the Pakistani detainees in Saudi jails, the Kingdom turned down the request. This renders the very gap between the diplomatic relations and the social conditions of Pakistanis within the Kingdom.

If Saudi Arabia desires to build strong ties with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia also needs to execute fair labor laws for the expats, recognize Pakistani citizens as a strong backbone for its own economic progress, and nurture the Pakistani talent that could keep the Kingdom strong. Similarly, Pakistani citizens who find themselves close to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia must reflect on their working habit by working with honesty rather than fear, respect for the Kingdom’s law rather than challenging it. Pakistani government, on the other hand, needs to demand the Saudi government to open up more doors of opportunities for the Pakistani citizens, and in return show much stronger loyalty in diplomatic relations. This attitude could create an honest and sincere loyalty to each other where Pakistan and Saudi Arabia find themselves much closer because the diplomatic reality is in synch with the social reality.

How Does Turkey Justify Military Intervention In Syria? – Analysis

$
0
0

Turkey, which has long been troubled by Islamic State’s threats located within the territory of Syria and Syria-Turkey border area, is trying to justify Turkish military intervention in Syria against Islamic State in the context of the theory of unwillingness or inability which does not have any legal base.

According to the “unwilling or unable” theory, it would be allowed to target a State harboring a terrorist or non-state armed groups. In other words, if the host state was unwilling or unable to prevent its territory from being used by non-state armed groups to carry out attacks, the victim state would defend itself by entering into that state territories under the right of self-defense.

Turkey believes that Syria as the host State is unwilling or unable to control its territories which are under the Islamic State’s effective control and being used as a ground for its terrorist attacks. To protect against these threats, Turkish military forces have entered Syria on the basis of the right to self-defense against Islamic State. In other words, Turkey’s justification for the military intervention in Syria was founded upon unwillingness or inability of the Syrian government in fighting against Islamic State which has the capacity to carry out attacks in Turkey and threaten Turkish national security progressively.

Nonetheless, Turkey seems unaware of the fact that the continuing attacks of Islamic State against Turkey are the consequences of unlawful Turkish military operations in Iraq at the end of 2015 on the basis of the condemned and unacceptable theory of ‘unwilling or unable’. In a similar case, intervention in Syria’s internal affairs on the basis of self-defense as a result of unwillingness or inability of the Syrian government, Turkey is violating Syria’s sovereignty and its territorial integrity, because Syria has not allowed Turkey to deploy its military forces within the country. Legally, no State can intervene in another State’s internal affairs in any case unless by the host state’s consent and invitation.

Legal Aspect

In accordance with the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) decision in Wall Case (para. 139), self-defense against non-state armed groups in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter is related only to situations in which the non-state armed groups’ terrorist attacks are in some way imputable to the state whose territorial sovereignty is being violated. Accordingly, States cannot exercise the right of self-defense on the basis of its own assessment of the situation. Therefore, it seems likely that the ICJ also has not accepted the ‘unwilling or unable’ standard. In other terms, it is only a theory that has no basis in international law.

In addition, it may be superficially said that Syria has not fought against terrorist activities of Islamic State and the other terrorist groups within its sovereign territory, but could it be said that Syria “as the host State” is really unable or unwilling to fight against Islamic State and the other armed groups in its territory? Genuinely, Syrian Army has fought against Islamic State and the other terrorist organizations in its sovereign territory progressively. During these operations, Russia and Iran have also fought against these groups as Syrian allies side by side with Syrian Army. Currently, Syria is assaulting Islamic State and the other terrorist targets with its allies’ comprehensive support. From this point of view, it could be concluded that military intervention in Syria by justifying the theory of ‘unwilling or unable’ does not have any legal base.

In all, the legality of intervention in another State’s internal affairs without its consent against non-state armed groups active in its territory is one of the very controversial issues in international relations when discussed in the context of unwillingness and inability theory. Yet, it can be pointed out that self-defense against non-state armed groups within the territory of the host State by justifying its inability or unwillingness could be acceptable if the victim State such as Turkey had already reported ineffectiveness of the host State to the United Nations Security Council. In such situation, the Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the victim State. The Security Council would make the appropriate decision on the host State’s inability or unwillingness to suppress the threat.

Political Aspect

Yet, politically it may be argued that Turkey could employ other arguments such as the fight against terrorism; nevertheless, fighting against Islamic State in the context of fighting against international terrorism could not justify intervention in Syria’s sovereign territory.

In political terms, Turkey’s military intervention in Syrian borders has turned out to become an explosive boomerang; Istanbul nightclub massacre and the Russian ambassador’s assassination in Ankara are only two of the latest consequences of Turkish foreign policy regarding Syria. Clearly, Turkey’s supposed fight against terrorism in Syria has not solved this problem. It can be stated that it has even accelerated terrorist activities of Islamic State, at least inside Turkey.

Therefore, the fight against terrorism in the broad meaning of the phrase seems less of a rational explanation for Turkey’s presence in Syria and more of a strategically less harmful reply to the international communities’ curiosity on this issue. Another hypothesis on Turkey’s presence in military involvement in Syria is that Turkey is threatened by the area controlled by YPG in Northern Syria which is considered as a potential part of a supposed future Kurdish state. Turkey’s lately strained relations with the United States is also mainly relevant to the United States’ alliance with YPG against the Islamic State in the region. Therefore, as it can easily be noted, the axis around which Turkey’s recent activities in Syria revolves is its domestic Kurdish issue. Therefore, politically speaking Turkey’s military intervention in Syria transcends legal international arguments of the issue and is rather a reflection of its domestic problems rather than fight against terrorism.

It is inevitable to argue that the current situation in Syria threatens Turkey as the border State, however Turkish military intervention in Syria on the basis of Turkey’s own assessment of the situation is substantially violation of Syria’s territorial integrity and therefore it is not unfeasible to say that Turkish attitude towards its neighboring country is inconsistent with the principles of respect for the sovereignty of the States, and non-intervention in their internal affairs.

*About the authors:
Dr. Saeed Bagheri
has a LL.M in Human Rights Law from Allameh Tabatabei University/Tehran, Ph.D. in Public International Law from Ankara University. His main research interests focus on international humanitarian law, armed conflicts, nuclear law, and human rights law. He is Assistant Professor of Public International Law at Akdeniz University/Turkey (sbocanli@gmail.com) (twitter: @LLMSBagheri).

*Sahar Nejati Karimabad is a Ph.D. candidate in Area Studies at the Middle East Technical University in Turkey. Her main research interests focus on ethnic identity, post-soviet space, international security and gender (saharnj123@gmail.com).

Geopolitical Impact Of Mosul Operation On NATO’s Supremacy In Middle East – Analysis

$
0
0

Before World War I , Britain had enjoyed almost a century of unparalleled peace and prosperity. Despite rapid advances of Germany, Great Britain remained the most technologically advanced nation on Earth. The scope of the Industrial Revolution and the greatest inventions of the age were making up pax-Britannica. Thus Britain became the manufacturing centre of Europe, importing raw materials from trading partners to be turned into goods for sale. British shipbuilders were busiest in the world, constructing thousands of vessels for trade and defense. Within Britain itself, a vast network of channels allowed longboats to move cargo and in the mid-1800s channel boats were superseded by trains and railways leading to other transportation advancements of the British Empire, a vast sprawl of territories and possessions named “the empire sun never set”.

In Germany, Wilhelm I generally left matters of foreign policy to Bismarck, his trusted chancellor. A brilliant statesmen with an astute understanding European politics, Bismarck skillfully steered Germany through a quagmire of tensions and pressures. Bismarck’s main aim was to give the new Germany a ‘breathing space’ by avoiding war, particularly a two- front war where Germany might have been confronted by both France and Russia. The crowning of young Wilhelm II spelled trouble for Bismarck and his foreign policy regime. The new Kaiser was ambitious and full of grand designs for building German prestige and expanding him empire’s great influence. He believed that new colonies could be obtained in Africa, Middle East and Pacific, while German influence could be boosted by taking advantage of the Ottoman Empire’s weakening hold over the Balkans and Eastern Europe. To further the agenda, The Berlin-Baghdad Railway also known as the Baghdat Railway was built to connect Berlin with Baghdad, with Germany pursuing to establish a port in the Persian Gulf.

The unification of Germany boosted industrial growth and railway construction. Iron ore mining and foreign investment  all spiked during the mid-19th century. German banks formed and grew quickly, providing credit and investment for new ventures. With respect to Berlin-Baghdad Railway, funding, engineering and construction was mainly provided by German imperial banks including Deutsche Bank and companies which in the 1890s had built the Anatolian Railway. Germany wished to maintain its control of Arabian peninsula and expand its influence across the Red Sea which had been under British military control. If the railway had been completed, the Germans would have gained access to suspected oil fileds in Mesopotamia as well as connected to the port of Basra and the Persian Gulf. The railway became a source of international disputes during the years preceding World War I, although it has been argued that international disputes on railway route were resolved in 1914 before the war began; it has also been argued that the railway was a leading cause of World War I.

Right after oil fields were discovered in Mosul, Germany’s imperial banks and companies accelerated the construction of Berlin-Baghdad railway en route to Mosul. In an attempt to bring together competing British and German interests in the region, a British Company known as African and Eastern Concession Ltd, was formed. In 1912 this company become the Turkish Petroleum Company, formed with the purpose of acquiring concession from Istanbul to explore oil fields in Mesopotamia. The owners were a group of large European companies  including Deutsche Bank, the Anglo Saxon Oil Company and National Bank of Turkey. While this consortium received a promise of a concession from the Ottoman government, Balkan War broke out in which Bulgaria and Greece waged war against the Ottoman government, therefore leading the Balkan section of Berlin-Baghdad railway to collapse. Breaking out of second Balkan War ensured Germany’s halt in the Balkans on its path to Mosul oil fields. Balkan wars also gave the upper hand to Britain in securing Mosul fields.

Exactly one hundred years ago, two diplomats, one British and one French, concluded the Sykes-Picot agreement, which divided the Middle East into two zones of influence. The agreement became one of the cornerstones of the policies in the region and gave the core area of the Middle East the shape it has assumed since the end of World War I. “Sykes-Picot” refers to the agreement reached in May 1916 between the British war-time diplomat Sir Mark Sykes and the French diplomat François George-Picot, regarding the future of the Fertile Crescent, the Levant and Mesopotamia at the end of war, on the assumption that the Ottoman Empire, Germany’s war ally would be partitioned. The system that emerged from the final phase of the war and the peace time diplomacy was quite different from reality envisaged by Sykes-Picot in that Mosul and Northern Iraq were transferred from the French to the British area of control. Mosul was the cornerstone of the Berlin-Bagdad railway and Britain was wiping out the Middle Eastern section of Berlin-Baghdad railway through Sykes-Picot Agreement. It should be noted that Britain launched its Dardanelles Campaign with an intent to stop Germany’s access to Mosul oilfields by taking Istanbul, a city through which passed the Berlin-Baghdad railway.

Mosul is located in the middle of Silk Road and is important as far as world geopolitics are concerned. The Treaty of Sévres, signed on 10 August 1920, was one of a series of treaties that nations constituting the central powers signed subsequent to their defeat in World War I. The Sévres Treaty marked the beginning of partitioning of the Ottoman Empire; it promised the Kurds their own state and scheduled to have a referendum to decide its fate, which according to section III Articles 62-64 was to include the Mosul Province. At that point, The terms of the treaty brewed nationalist feeling among Turks. Even the signatories of the treaty were stripped of their citizenship by the Grand National Assembly led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and treaty ultimately led to the Turkish War of Independence following which Turkey signed the new Treaty of Lausanne in 1923. This effectively brought into being the secular modern-day Republic of Turkey.

In the 21st century, a new project originated: The Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road also known as One Belt, One Road is a development strategy and framework proposed by China. It focuses on connectivity and cooperation among countries primarily between the People’s Republic China and the rest of Eurasia, which consists of two main components, the land-based “Silk Road Economic Belt” and offshore “Maritime Silk Road”. The strategy underlines China’s push to take a bigger role in global affairs. Essentially, the belt includes countries situated on the original Silk Road through Central-Asia, West Asia, the Middle East and Europe. At this point, Turkey, Syria and Mosul formed the Middle Eastern section of China’s Silk Road and Mosul is in the middle of it. This led to  infrastructure investments in Turkey which makes up a vital part of world geostrategy:  numerous mega infrastructure projects are at the construction or design stage, such as the third airport in Istanbul, the third Bosphorus Bridge, the bridge over the Dardanelles, and under-the-sea passages for trains and other cargo across the Marmara Sea. At this point, it should be noted that during the failed coup in Turkey on July 15 of 2016, the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul which connects Europe and Asia became the scene of a confrontation between soldiers and people, the struggles for this symbolic landmark on Silk Road Economic Belt.

Mosul is an important link for United States and NATO’s supremacy against Russia and China. In the rimland, the most important waterways are located in the Middle East. According to World Island theory of Mackinder “Who controls the Rimland rules Eurasia, who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world.” Furthermore NATO’s Adana Incirlik Air Base was used for “The Operation Northern Watch” in January 1997 with the task of enforcing the United Nations-sanctioned “no-fly zone” north of the 36th parallel in Iraq. It should be noted that, NATO’s successful operation through Incirlik Airbase in order control Northern Iraq and Mosul oilfields have eased the burden of United States in the Middle East by setting up balance which have paved the way for the implementation of NATO’s New Strategic Concept on Central Europe and Euro-Asia regarding the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo Albanians. NATO launched an air campaign on 23 March 1999 against Yugoslavia. Moreover, NATO’s Kosovo Air Campaign can be regarded as a positive watershed not only to protect stability of the Euro-Atlantic region but also can be regarded as an Euro-Atlantic security having more relations with Middle East, in general, particularly Northern Iraq and Mosul oilfields.

Russian expansion in the Middle East and Kurdish problem are still the main source of problem for Turkey and United States. Given the fact that United States passed through formidable election process dealing with domestic issues, the influence of Operation Inherent Resolve decreased. It follows that Turkey filled the vacuum by starting Operation Euphrates Shield, an ongoing cross-border operation by the Turkish Military in the Syrian Civil War. Turkish ground forces have been successfully fighting against ISIL since 24 August 2016. These operations created balance in the region until the day Donald Trump assumed office. It is interesting that President Donal Trump has signed on 23 January 2017 a decree on the withdrawal of the U.S. from Trans-Pacific trade partnership which may mean that Donald Trump will compete with China’s Silk Road Policy directly through Mosul Operation. At this point NATO’s Incirlik Airbase will be first foreign policy priority for the new U.S administration.

*Mehmet Bildik is a political scientist and Research Fellow on Military and Strategic Affairs. He is research assistant at the military and strategic affairs cyber security program of the The Institute for National Security Studies under the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He received his MA degree at Bucharest National School of Political Science and Public Administrative Studies, Security and Diplomacy Scholarship holder under the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

This article was published at Foreign Policy News.

Netanyahu Says All Embassies To Israel Should Move To Jerusalem

$
0
0

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed on Sunday his support for the US embassy to Israel moving from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, further adding that “all embassies should come here.”

In a statement during the Israeli security cabinet’s weekly meeting, Netanyahu emphasized the “fundamental” relationship between the United States and Israel.

“There is no substitute for this alliance. Our relations are tight and getting tighter, and I would like to take this opportunity to make it unequivocally clear that our position has always been, and will always be, that the US embassy needs to be here, in Jerusalem,” the prime minister said.

“Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and it is proper that not only should the American embassy be here, but all embassies should come here, and I believe that over time most of them will indeed come here, to Jerusalem.”

Netanyahu’s statements came two days after US President Donald Trump told Fox News that it was “too early” to talk about his controversial campaign promise to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.

Mark Zell, the co-chairman of the Republican Overseas Israel group had accused Netanyahu earlier on Sunday of being behind Trump’s decision to delay the embassy move, The Jerusalem Post reported.

The prospect of an embassy location change has been met with applause by right-wing Israeli officials and strongly condemned by Palestinians and the international community.

The move would in effect amount to American recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, effectively torpedoing efforts to implement a two-state solution with East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state.

The fate of Jerusalem has been a focal point of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for decades, with numerous tensions arising over Israeli threats regarding the status of non-Jewish religious sites in the city, and the “Judaization” of East Jerusalem through settlement construction and mass demolitions of Palestinian homes.

The Israeli government has openly expressed its anticipation for a Trump presidency, which right-wing politicians believe will make it easier to advance plans to expand Israeli settlements and consolidate Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem and other parts of the West Bank.

Last month, Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Secretary-General Saeb Erekat warned that the PLO would revoke all previously signed agreements with Israel as well as the PLO’s 1993 recognition of Israel if Trump followed through on his pledge to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Erekat reportedly said such a move would indicate the US’s acceptance of “Israel’s illegal annexation of East Jerusalem,” and further warned that “any hope of peace in the future will just vanish.”

While members of the international community have rested the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the discontinuation of illegal Israeli settlements and the establishment of a two-state solution, Israeli leaders have instead shifted further to the right as many Knesset members have called for an escalation of settlement building in the occupied West Bank, and with some having advocated for its complete annexation.

Viewing all 73742 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images