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Auto Loans: The Next Debt Bubble? – Analysis

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By Shaun Bradley*

After nearly a decade of being able to borrow money for next to nothing, interest rates are finally beginning to creep higher. Even the relatively small increases seen so far have caused problems in the previously booming automobile industry. The size of the auto loan market has ballooned to a historic $1.1 trillion, and subprime lending has once again become the norm. Teaser offers that allow people to get cars with zero money down and 84-month financing have fueled a wave of irresponsible spending. Americans’ tendency to associate success with having nice things has driven many people who can’t afford to buy a house to get the next best thing — a brand new car.

Credit: WolfStreet.com
Credit: WolfStreet.com

The data released so far in 2017, however, has started to raise questions about how much longer these spending habits can last. There has been a significant drop in new car sales and a sharp increase in the delinquency rates of subprime borrowers. Inventories across the country have started to build up, and if things don’t turn around soon, the excess cars sitting on lots will eventually force prices lower. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, price declines will also impact the used car market, and some predictions are calling for up to a 50% decline by 2021.

Millions of borrowers who bought cars on credit could see the value of their vehicles plummet yet still have to pay off their full loan amount. It’s similar to 2008 when the mortgage market collapsed and plunged home prices across the country dramatically lower. Property values fell so much that people suddenly owed more on their homes than they were worth. Those homeowners then had to make the decision of whether to wait it out and keep paying their inflated mortgage rates or cut their losses and sell. Cars, on the other hand, have never been an investment, and this kind of situation in the auto industry would likely trigger an avalanche of private sales as people try to get out from under their debts.

Fitch Ratings Inc. talked about these recent developments in their latest report:

Fitch expects that deteriorating credit performance will be more acute in the subprime segment, driven to some extent by the expansion of less-tenured independent auto finance companies that have demonstrated higher-risk appetites and less underwriting discipline. … NADA’s Used Vehicle Price Index, which measures wholesale prices of used vehicles up to eight years old, declined over 6% in 2016 and was down 8% year over year through February 2017, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline. Used vehicle prices were down 1.6% sequentially in February, reflecting the sharpest monthly decline for the index since November 2008 and a seasonal anomaly for February.

Wells Fargo is one of the largest holders of subprime auto debt and recently took steps to limit their exposure when investors started to recognize the possible downside. It has even been reported that many of these loans were given out to buyers who had no credit score at all.

The risks aren’t limited to just lenders and borrowers but also extend to institutional investors. Thousands of these high-risk car loans have been bundled together into products similar to the mortgage-backed securities that undermined financial stability in 2008. Investment fund managers have bought billions of dollars worth of this securitized debt while trying to maximize returns in this low-interest rate environment. Even though this bubble, on its own, isn’t enough to destabilize the economy, the additional problems with student loans and record high rental costs have had a devastating impact on the net worth of most working Americans.

The real reason these loose lending standards have reemerged in the auto sector is to prop up the system through consumerism. The trade-off has been a lack of any substantial savings by the average person. Instead of planning for their futures, people have financed overpriced cars for six or seven years while still having to make monthly payments on a student loan. This next generation isn’t going to have the extra money needed to afford a home, build an investment portfolio, or start a business. Instead, they’re setting themselves up to work for years trying to get out from under the stress that comes from accepting debt enslavement.

As time goes on, more and more weaknesses in the economy will reveal themselves. Whether it’s the collapse of the retail market, uncertainty in the Eurozone, or the automation of low-skilled workers, something will eventually cause public confidence to break. The auto loan market is a microcosm of the systemic imbalances that have become normal since the Federal Reserve and US government bailed out the system in 2008. Despite this clear manipulation, individuals who accumulated massive debts are still responsible for their actions, but the rampant lack of economic knowledge has led millions of people into a life in quicksand.

Originally published by TheAntimedia.

Source:
This article appeared at the MISES Institute.


Kim Kardashian Is No Virgin Mary – OpEd

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We’ve never seen any indication that Kim Kardashian venerates the Blessed Virgin Mary—she is a former porn star—so her latest headline-grabbing stunt can only be seen as exploitative.

On her Kimoji Instagram page, Kardashian presents an image of herself as the Virgin Mary; she is promoting merchandise. The animated image then blurs into a colorful, psychedelic celebration of “Weed Day,” an annual celebration of marijuana.

Advertised on Kardashian’s Kimoji website is a candle with the same image of her as the Virgin Mary; it sells for $18. It is placed between two other items for sale: a “fire weed sock” and an “ass tray”; the former celebrates marijuana use and the latter is a photo of her bare mammoth behind.

To top it all off, while filming scenes for “Keeping Up With the Kardashians,” Kim was photographed wearing a clingy, see-through black dress with an image of the Virgin Mary emblazoned between her breasts.

We know that she and her family have been through a lot—their problems are mostly self-induced—but that is no excuse for ripping off Catholic iconography to make a quick buck and grab headline news.

Silence Is ‘Mandatory’, Not Matter Of ‘Choice’ – OpEd

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That Indian Playback Singer Sonu Nigam’s public tweet deploring the use of loudspeakers for azaan by mosques, loud artis in temples and gurudwaras was met with incensed rage by irate Muslims was a given.

Much on the same lines were expected the overwhelming responses of the liberal ‘fence-sitters,’ even from the Hindi film industry, who refused to ‘judge’ — despite overwhelming evidence yet openly flays and castigate statements as the one made by, this time around, Sonu Nigam! And, once again, the law on the situation is given the convenient miss. It just isn’t glamorous to see things in black and white as the law is.

The legal position on the use of loudspeakers by mosques, churches, temples, political parties, partying parties et al., in Mumbai, is boringly clear as crystal. After the Bombay High Court directed the civic body BMC to demarcate Silence Zones in 2009, the same were notified for Mumbai city and boards, announcing the same, put up at each location.

The civic body also uploaded maps that identified 1,503 Silence Zones, which comprise areas within a 100-metre radius around hospitals, educational and religious institutions. A division bench of the Bombay High Court consisting Justice Abhay Oka and Justice Ahmed Sayed said citizens can claim compensation if their complaints about noise pollution are ignored by enforcement authorities.
Now, by the logic and the letter of the law, it is clear that all religious institutions in Mumbai are categorized as Silence Zones and have to abide by noise pollution rules.

Sonu Nigam’s tweets have been construed as an attempt to wedge disruption in ‘the peace’, which is actually convenient acquiescence to the ‘anomaly in law’, the extraneous use of loudspeakers in a mosque or any other religious institution being outright illegal.

Syed Sha Atef Ali Al Quaderi, vice president, West Bengal Minority United Council as quoted in a report spewed, “If anyone can shave his hair, put a garland of old torn shoes around his neck and tour him around the country I personally announce an award of Rs 10 lakh for that person. I would have reacted the same way if one had talked ill about the sound of bells coming from a temple as well. If we all become so intolerant about each other’s religions, we will soon have a bunch of atheists in our country. People like Nigam should be driven out of the country.”

Now, that squarely comprises an attempt to curb one’s (Sonu Nigam’s) Freedom of Speech and Expression as guaranteed by Article 19 of the Indian Constitution. However, few would, at this point of time, stand by Nigam’s Right to Freedom of Speech and Expression.

Azaan summons the faithful to peace and tranquillity but when made through loudspeakers turns into a cause of concern and is objected to by several quarters. Why, Navi Mumbai resident Santosh Pachalag had earlier petitioned, in 2014 through a Public Interest Litigation, the Bombay High Court against ‘illegal use of loudspeakers’ by mosques in his area.

An RTI plea revealed that 45 of 49 mosques in the area didn’t have permission to use loudspeakers and, on the petition, the Bombay High Court directed the police to remove ‘illegal’ loudspeakers from mosques. Also, in a heart-warming gesture, many in the Muslim community too welcomed the verdict. Several religious institutions, in violation of the Noise Pollution (Control and Regulation) Rules, 2000 have used loudspeakers much above the permissible decibel levels (50 dB during day and 40 dB at night for Silence Zone and 55 dB during day and 45 dB at night for Residential Areas).

Earlier, in 2005, the Supreme Court had issued guidelines that included restrictions on the use of loudspeakers in public spaces at night to bring down the decibel levels. The-then Chief Justice of India RC Lahoti who headed the bench banned the use of loudspeakers between 2200 and 0600 hours in public spaces. The court also issued guidelines to the police on how the same should be implemented.

The guidelines included restrictions on the use of loudspeakers in public spaces and norms for the use of high-volume sound systems, generators and vehicles. There was a ban on the use of noisy firecrackers late at night during festivals like Diwali and a ban on using loudspeakers between 10 pm and 6 am.

The CJI, writing for the bench, also said the decibel level of megaphones or public address systems should “not exceed 10 dB (A) above the ambient noise standards for the area, or 75 dB (A), whichever is lower.”

In Om Birangana Religious Society … vs The State And Ors. on April 1st, 1996, Judge Bhagabati Prosad Banerjee had elaborated, “So far as right of religious organisations to use loudspeaker or amplifier is concerned that right is not an independent right under Article 25 of the Constitution of India. Article 25(1) of the Constitution of India provides that subject to public order, morality and health and to the other provisions of this part, all persons and equally entitled to freedom of conscience and the right freely to profess, practise and propagate religion.”

“It is a matter to consider whether the public are captive audience or listeners when permission is given for using loud-speakers in public and the person who is otherwise unwilling to bear the sound and/or the music or the communication made by the loud-speakers, but he is compelled to tolerate all these things against his will and health. If permission is granted to use microphones at a louder voice, such a course of action takes away the rights of a citizen to speak with others, the right to read or the right to know and the right to sleep and rest or to think any matter.”

The judgement clearly details the reach of Freedom of Speech and Expression as guaranteed under Article 19(1) (a) of the Constitution of India, which is invoked each time one resists noise or cacophony generated for religious, personal, professional or political reasons.

Judge Banerjee said, “Freedom of Speech and Expression includes, by necessary implication, freedom not to listen and/or to remain silent. One cannot exercise his right at the cost and in total deprivation of others’ rights. A right cannot be conferred by the authorities concerned upon a person or a religious organization to exercise their rights suspending and/or taking away the rights of others.”

Sonu Nigam, meanwhile, two days after the controversy over his tweet, a police complaint and being branded as anti-Muslim, shaved off the hair on his head saying, “Everyone has a right to his opinion and I only spoke about loudspeakers. I said it for temples, gurudwaras and mosques, why is it so hard to comprehend?”

It evidently is, isn’t it?

Enhancing Regional Economic Cooperation Important To Advance 2030 Agenda In Asia And Pacific

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A United Nations meeting in Bangkok on Friday concluded that fostering regional economic cooperation and integration (RECI) in Asia-Pacific holds great potential to further reduce poverty, and advance the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Organized by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the high-level dialogue brought together senior officials and experts from the region to identify challenges and propose recommendations for enhancing RECI to support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The meeting highlighted that RECI has assumed renewed significance given emerging threats from attempts to dislodge globalization and derail multilateralism, evolving political challenges and dynamics, and opportunities offered by the all-encompassing 2030 Agenda.

Opening the two-day meeting, United Nations Under-Secretary General and Executive Secretary of ESCAP Dr. Shamshad Akhtar emphasized that ESCAP has a long standing mandate for promoting RECI in Asia and the Pacific. “Over the past three decades, RECI has benefited our region significantly – powering trade, economic growth and stability. It has attracted investment as markets were liberalised and competitiveness increased, and strengthened the ability of policymakers to overcome domestic challenges,” said Dr. Akhtar.

“Our region’s experience tells us that deepening RECI holds great potential to further reduce poverty and deliver inclusive sustainable development. It needs to be at the heart of our efforts to meet the SDGs,” she added.

Delegates attending the meeting emphasized that RECI and the 2030 Agenda are mutually reinforcing processes and have to be pursued in a way that they support each other. It was noted that RECI can bring about enormous opportunities for increasing income and employment and eventually contribute to achieving the SDGs, in particular transboundary goals.

Dr. Akhtar underscored that the approach to RECI has to be reoriented, so it is guided by the framework of the SDGs. The Executive Secretary highlighted that RECI can advance implementation of the SDGs by generating opportunities for enhancing employment across the region, thereby contributing directly to decent work and economic growth (Goal 8), industry, innovation and infrastructure (Goal 9), and affordable and clean energy (Goal 7). It also strengthens the means of implementation and contributes towards revitalization of global partnership for sustainable development (Goal 17).

During the deliberations, participants proposed four key recommendations to advance RECI in Asia and the Pacific. These included: the full implementation of the Framework Agreement on facilitation of Cross-Border Paperless Trade, which would further enhance market integration, reduce non-tariff barriers and reach multilateral agreements; the need to build on existing bilateral intergovernmental agreements to realise the vision of seamless connectivity in the areas of transport, energy and ICT; the strengthening of regional financial cooperation and crisis management capacity; as well as collectively addressing shared vulnerabilities, particularly for transboundary disasters.

As its share of world GDP increases and as protectionist sentiment grows in Asia-Pacific export markets, the case for strengthening RECI to support intraregional trade and investment as an engine of regional growth is clear. Since the onset of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008, the share of Asia-Pacific’s traditional export markets, as a percentage of global GDP, has decreased. With a combined GDP of $27 trillion and a 40 percent share of global export, robust growth in the Asia-Pacific would set it on course to become the most important market in the world.

The first Ministerial Conference on RECI was held in December 2013, where representatives of ESCAP member States adopted the Bangkok Declaration, setting the agenda for RECI in the Asia-Pacific region.

Tax Haven Mauritius Loses Grips On FDI Binge: Should India Vie For Chinese investment? – Analysis

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A big jolt was made to Mauritius foreign direct investment in India, after the new tax treaty snapped the benefits of tax heaven status of Mauritius. Despite being the least developed country, Mauritius has been the biggest foreign investor in India. It accounted for 33 percent of the total FDI flow in India. Paradoxically, the main investors were non-Mauritius companies. The major investors through Mauritius were American and European companies and a large investment were made through round-trip money by Indian honchos.

With the amendment in India – Mauritius Avoidance of Double Tax Treaty in August 2016, capital gains accrued to Mauritius investors in India, will be taxable from April 1, 2017. Hitherto, India did not have the power to tax the capital gain under the India-Mauritius tax agreement in 1983. During the first two years, April 2017 to March 2019, tax rate will be 50 percent and from third year onwards, it will be at full rate.

The new tax treaty will play hardball to Mauritius investors in India, presumably meaning stripping of the tax benefits to American and European investors in India and will impart a major impact on the total foreign direct investment. Currently, India is on high growth trajectory of inward FDI inflow. FDI in India made a quantum leap by over 61 percent during the two years period of BJP ruled government. FDI has become an important appetite and an inextricable component to drive the Make in India initiative. Given this situation, India should endeavor to loop foreign investment from other sources to nip the bid of the fallout of downturn in FDI from Mauritius.

China emerged the major global outward foreign investor, owning to stall in domestic growth. In 2016, Chinese investment abroad soured by 40 percent, reaching about US $ 200 billion. The major sectors for Chinese overseas investment were energy, real sectors and acquiring technology and advanced manufacturing assets. Initially, the aim was to garner patent, trade mark and technical know-how. Later , the aim shifted to hedging the investment, in the wake of uncertainty over the profitability in domestic area. This led to surge in Chinese overseas investment in real sector. According to China Foreign Investment Market Report -2015 Review, Chinese overseas investment in real sector grew by 41.5 percent in 2015.

There was a shift in the Chinese overseas investment from state-owned enterprises to private enterprises. In 2011, private enterprises accounted for 11 percent of the Chinse overseas investment. In 2015, it soared to 41.2 percent. This proves boon to Chinese investment in Europe. Hitherto, predominance of state –owned enterprises in Chinese investment abroad, despite bearing losses, raised concerns in Europe over the Chinese political influence.

The big surge in Chinese overseas investment was made in energy sector. Overseas energy deal was worth US$ 25 billion in 2016, a double leap from US$ 12.3 billion and US$ 3.7 billion in 2014.

Power is an important infrastructure in India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed electricity for all by 2019. At present, about one-third of the people are without electricity. Given the Make in India initiative and electricity for all, India needs to double up its appetite for electricity by 2030.

Currently, coal is the prime base for electricity generation in the country. Over 65 percent of the electricity generation is by coal base plants. Replacing coal base plants by renewable energy is a distant dream to quench the thirst of electricity for all by 2019.

Fund raising from international financial institutions for coal base power projects has become a major bottleneck due to world’s concern over detriment to clean energy. The major institutions, World Bank and IMF, were averse to provide fund to coal based power projects. Since 2012, World Bank did not sign any memorandum understanding for coal fired electricity projects with its member countries. ADB was selective in supporting coal based energy projects.

To this end, the newly set up AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) – an offshoot of BRICS – can bring a new lease of life to India’s coal base power projects. China is the biggest contributor to AIIB, followed by India. In this perspectives, Chinese investment in Indian power sector will be more appropriate. China is not only the key member of AIIB, but it is fluxed with huge cash and enjoys cheap plant costs.

China is wading in the new horizon of big ticket investors in India, albeit security concern. In 2015, Chinese investment in India leapfrogged eight times and became the eighth biggest foreign investor in India. The sudden spurt in Chinese investment affirms Chinese confidence in the growth cycle of India, fueled by high domestic demand.

With the Modi-Xi Jinping hobnob increasing on economic engagement , Chinese investors are on the binge for big investment in India. In 2016, Chinese companies proposed US$2.3 billion worth of investment in India. The proposals includes acquisition of 86 percent stake, worth US$1.4 billion, in Hyderabad Grand Pharma Ltd by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Co, investment of US$900 million in Media.net by Beiiing Miteno Communication Technology, investment of US$125 million in Diamond Power Infrastructure by ‘Jiangsu Longzhe’s and Tidfore Equipment investment of US$150 million in Uttam Galva Metal Works.

In mobile manufacturing, China has already made an edge. More than half a dozen mobile manufacturing companies are from China. Just before Chinese telecom giant Huawai’s announced its shifting of plant to India, Xiami had revealed plan to set up two manufacturing plants in the country. The upstart brands like Goinee, LeECo, Oppo, Vivo, Meizu, One Plus and Coolpad have also announced their facilities in the country.

A momentum has been built up for Chinese investment in India, albeit the bickering in Arunachal Pradesh due to Chinese claims in Indian soil. Leaving aside the political thorny issues, India should allure the Chinese investment. India needs big investment to prop up its Make in India initiative. Domestic investment is not enough. Currently, the wide trade deficit is haunting balance of payment, and China is the major cause for wide trade deficit. In this sense, more Chinese investment will act as a counter-balance to China threat of wide trade deficit , the analysts say.

(Views are personal)

Making College Expensive By Making It Free – OpEd

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By Anne Rathbone Bradley*

We all want to flourish. It’s part of God’s design and desire for His creation. Part of flourishing is making the choices we face less difficult, or even eliminating difficult ways of doing things. In the modern age, part of that includes making sure our children live longer and better lives than we do. A better and more productive life includes increasing opportunities to acquire the education that suits you. For some this is an apprenticeship, an online certification or a four-year college degree.

Most Christians would agree that more flourishing is good and that educational choice is important for us to enhance our God-given creativity. The question over which many Christians disagree is the means for making these desires possible. Are the tools of policy the best mechanism for increasing educational choice and quality? Or is that better left to the market?

The debate continues but now with a new policy twist. On April 7, the state of New York passed legislation initiated and pushed by Gov. Andrew Cuomo to make college “free.” Well, not really free. The Excelsior Scholarship, as the program is known, attempts to provide free tuition to New York public universities for families making $125,000 or less.

This legislation is billed by the governor himself as “First-in-Nation Tuition-Free College for the Middle Class.” Cuomo signed the bill in hopes that other states will adopt this bold policy to help the neediest students get to college. Will it work?

While Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton and others are praising the bill, we must first stop to ask a few questions: Who are we trying to help and are they getting the support they need? How does this affect this decision to attend college and the decisions to stay in college? How does this affect the long-term affordability of college?

We Live in a World of Scarcity

The first reality that we must submit ourselves to is that we live in a world of scarcity. Our resources have multiple and competing ends. Crafting another public policy response cannot not magically stop scarcity in the same way that it cannot stop a hurricane from coming. God designed a world in which we would have to work together to overcome the constraints of scarcity. We simply cannot do this on our own. Scarcity is our reality and it means that we must choose and each choice we make imposes a cost upon us.

Attending and paying for college falls under this premise. If you attend college not only must you pay tuition fees, book fees and in many cases room and board. The costs of these choices are not just in the prices we pay for them but what we give up consuming them. If you attend a four-year college away from home, you most often give up a full-time job, time with your family, and other higher education options like online or community college. Each choice we make imposes costs and tradeoffs upon us.

If we want to increase human flourishing for everyone, we must discover how to innovate and make choices less costly over time. Higher education suffers from a lack of human creativity and innovation — it is getting more expensive rather than less expensive. When we can pay less for the things we consume, we have more leftovers (time and money) for other things we need and want. This paves the road to greater flourishing.

Prices Lessen the Burden of Scarcity

Prices are lowered naturally through the process of competition. When there is more than one supplier, those suppliers compete on both price and quality — which is great for consumers. True market competition in higher education – without more and more state subsidies – would mean that students would have far greater choice and that those institutions can specialize. Some colleges focus on liberal arts, the Great Books, technical education, art institutes, and many more.

This organic specialization is the result of consumers being able to demonstrate their preferences in the market. Colleges respond to these market incentives by giving students what they need and want at lower prices and higher levels of quality.

Prices in a market reflect underlying levels of scarcity. The way to encourage price reductions is to encourage competition. Sadly, the very opposite of this process defines higher education. Most colleges and universities are heavily subsidized by governments which distorts the natural competitive process. To layer on top of that a policy of “free tuition” just obfuscates the competitive process prices further.

Unintended Consequences

We can’t will prices to be lower than they are just because we want lower prices. Signing a new bill into law can’t do this either because laws and policies do not function like a magic wand. We can and should want lower prices, but the mechanism for achieving this is the market process rather than government intervention.

There are some other problems with Gov. Cuomo’s new “free” program: it distorts who will attend college. When we use policy as an effort to try and make things cheaper, on the surface college will look more attractive because the cost of attending is further subsidized. This will artificially make it look “cheaper” to attend college but in fact it is not cheaper. In the long run, New York’s new education policy will make college much more expensive. The legislation doesn’t free up scarce resources, it rearranges existing resources and is funded through taxes. In the long run, it discourages innovation and cost saving measures by colleges.

Many are predicting that the Excelsior Scholarship will help traditional college students but won’t help the neediest. Those students at the lowest end of the income distribution already have access to grants and loans so this funding will not be offered to them first. The neediest will likely get left behind.

Another unintended consequence is that people will enter college who may be better off pursuing some other form of education, like certification programs or community college. These students will have a more difficult time finishing college and many may drop out. College dropout rates are at an increasing problem with about a third of students dropping out, and the Excelsior Scholarship will likely exacerbate this problem. Attending college and then dropping out because it ends up being more costly than you thought or worse yet, not the right place for can be worse than not attending at all.

We can all agree that there are vast societal benefits to an educated population. Higher education is important in the increasingly digital and global age and necessary for us to live into our God-given skills and talents. We need to encourage competition so that each of us can receive the education that we need, one that suits who we are, and does so at ever lower prices.

Forcing college to be “free” doesn’t make it free at all — it makes it much more expensive in the long run. Policy cannot force innovation and cost-savings. The key to enriching the lives of future generations is to innovate in higher education so each student gets what they need at the lowest price possible. This allows each person greater autonomy over their lives to live into the unique person they are created to be. Freeing higher education by introducing market competition, not more taxpayer subsidies, is the key to providing better educational choices for families and students.

About the author:
*Anne Rathbone Bradley, Ph.D
. is the Vice President of Economic Initiatives at the Institute for Faith, Work, and Economics, where she develops and commissions research toward a systematic biblical theology of economic freedom. She is a visiting professor at Georgetown University, and she also teaches at The Institute for World Politics and George Mason University. Additionally, she is a visiting scholar at the Bernard Center for Women, Politics, and Public Policy. Previously, she has taught at Charles University, Prague, and she has served as the Associate Director for the Program in Economics, Politics, and the Law at the James M. Buchanan Center at George Mason University.

Source:
This article was published by the Acton Institute

France: Security Forces Mobilized For Election After Paris Attack

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(RFE/RL) — France says it is tightening security for the upcoming presidential election after the killing of a police officer in central Paris in an attack claimed by the Islamic State (IS) extremist group.

“Nothing must hamper this democratic moment, which is fundamental for our nation,” Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said after an emergency security cabinet meeting on April 21.

Cazeneuve said some 50,000 police and gendarmes will be deployed to provide security during the first-round vote on April 23, with an additional 7,000 soldiers also on patrol. The election is expected to be decided in a May 7 runoff.

An attacker used an automatic weapon to shoot at police officers on the Champs-Elysees late on April 20, before being shot and killed by police. Two officers were seriously wounded.

Authorities say they have identified the gunman but have not released his name.

Reports described the attacker as a 39-year-old Frenchman who lived in a Paris suburb and had been known to security services as an Islamist radical.

Trump Vs Aristotle: Man From LA Vs Man From Athens And The Death Of Politics (2/7) – OpEd

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We don’t know if the best interpretation of Entropy is either “disorder” or “dispersion of energy,” but both are vital to understand the confrontation of Donald Trump’s politics versus those of Aristotle’s Politics. Whether we want to examine Trump with the lenses of the Laws of Entropy with respect to the media disorder he is pioneering as a new tool of politics, or for the dispersion of neuralgic energy from traditional economy power centers that he is generating with his political decisions, in both cases one thing is certain: Reference to the Laws of Entropy is needed if we want to understand Trump’s politics.

Trump’s Election As Application Of Laws Of Entropy In Human Affairs: From ‘Order To Disorder’

We certainly know that this universe (I remark the italics of this, to postulate our universe within the very likely existing multiverse system) is continuously going from order to disorder, and quite obviously this is also true with respect to human affairs – it could not be different – therefore when we rearrange elementary components to provide a new useful order in physics, as we do in politics, we must always be aware that the new useful order is fated to end.

People forget when they complain of Trump’s election, as a step forward destroying a previous political order, that any arrangement of elementary components (which we like to call order) – natural or man manufactured – is due to last only a limited time, as such then the indestructible universal laws (often underlined in his time by Buddha) of any composite body, as well as any political structure, will decay.

Let’s not forget that disorder will dismantle not only any physical aggregation, but it will do the same for any established political order. This is because any order, both physical or social, doesn’t last forever. Trump, in politics, is the proof of the consolidated principle of Buddha: There is always a decay of a temporary physical and social aggregations. “Ananda, why do you cry for my death, don’t we know that all bodies will be reduced to their components?”

But if Trump’s election is just an inevitable case of the application of the Laws of Entropy to human affairs, the next obliged question is: How do we best deal with Trump’s disorder? Do we try to revive the previous political order or do we engage ourselves to work for a new order? The answer depends on whether we consider the change conclusive and permanent or just provisional. And since there are good reasons to consider Trump’s changes to be permanent, then while we keep criticizing lost values and oppose negative policies, we must also look at Trump’s disorder as a chance to work for creating a new order that might deserve surprising new positive effects.

But as we engage in looking for positive values in Trump’s adventure — which the President appears to be trying daily to make it harder and harder to do so — we must never forget that for more then twenty centuries we were able to refer for our discussions on “politics” to Aristotle’s eight books (chapters). Now, however, after Trump’s election, unless we totally restate its meaning the term “politics“ is dead. Is “Corporatics” of the the Man from Los Angeles a proper substitution for the “Politics” of the Man from Athens?

Trump’s Election as Application of Laws of Entropy in Human affairs: The ‘Dispersion of Energy”

Bernie Sanders. Photo by Nick Solari, Wikipedia Commons.
Bernie Sanders. Photo by Nick Solari, Wikipedia Commons.

Writing to a director of the Center where I am connected at USC, I told him several times that Bernie Sanders would beat Trump, but Trump would certainly beat Hillary Clinton. I wrote him that prediction over and over, even when Trump was disregarded as an official contender and even when all polls declared that Hillary was the winner. The reason in my mind was very simple: American voters in each party were tired of obsolete slogans and were looking for “a new deal” in each camp.

In both camps they wanted a totally new fresh attitude in internal affairs, where social crises were highlighted by recurring dramatic (or trivial) gratuitous violence, resurgence of excessive (or deficient) minority discrimination and disproportionate (or feebleness) political determination. And in foreign affairs they were weary of cloudy declarations on promotion of freedom, human sensitivity and assertion of uniqueness of America love of peace that didn’t prevent wars while didn’t assure victories.

That is why in both fields they wanted something radically new. People were tired of conservative rightist politics and exhausted of conservative liberal politics — we do have to accept the principle that liberal politics can be at time boring conservative. People felt that a “new deal” was needed in any case: a “conservative new deal” or a “progressive new deal”, but in each case the candidate had to propose a “real new deal”.

Thus since Trump was interpreting a “conservative new deal” that was much better than any of the other Republican contenders, I thought he would win the primary. And if the liberal establishment was going to get Hillary to win the primary, since she was not interpreting a “progressive new deal” I was sure that she would lose to Donald. Bernie was the only chance that liberal politics could beat Donald because he was really representing a liberal version of “a real new deal,” something which Hillary had failed to express. I am personally inclined to say that Bernie was a magnificent interpreter of a “great new deal”, and I am fully convinced he would have been a wonderful alternative to launch a new world vision of economy. Nevertheless, while we might very much miss Bernie, we still have to look at the Laws of Entropy to fully appreciate Trump’s presidency.

The Laws of Entropy say that during the existing continuous universal transformation process from order to disorder, some energy is lost (rather diffused) to the point that the final result for our universe will be a motionless lifeless entity.

Personally without being a physicist I do not accept this position, but I reject it on philosophical grounds that would not be appropriate to discuss here. (1). For what we are now concerned with here in this essay, it is important to observe that we might look at “politics” not only as a status quo that we want to protect from Trump’s disorder, but also as “energetic working system” induced by disorder where Trump’s politics could present positive aspects in terms of new vital energy.

That “disorder” in terms of “energetic working system” can produce some positive results in terms of politics as we know from both the history of both parties. That was certainly the case of the Reagan administration, of Roosevelt’s presidency and with all probability would have been the case with Bernie’s election. A shake up was needed in both parties. Trump’s politics promised a conservative shake up, Bernie would have been able to provide a liberal shake up, which was not in the cords of Hillary. If Bernie had won the primary, the election would have been a confrontations between two political shakes. In both cases, the Laws of Entropy as diffusion of energy would have been applied.

My opinion was that Bernie would have raised expectations for a progressive new vision of America to such a high level that in the head-to-head confrontation, his “liberal new deal” would have beaten Trump’s “conservative new deal”.

Aristotles’ politics: “Democracy is the rule of the majority of citizens.”

Trump’s politics: “Hillary Clinton wins 2,864,974 more votes then Trump, but on Jan. 20, 2017 Trump is inaugurated as president.”

Once we accept the idea that to understand Trump we must study him with regard to the Laws of Entropy, why do we feel that “politics,” as described by Aristotle’s definition is dead to the point that we need to invent a new term?

The reason is that with Trump’s election two of Aristotle’s basic pillars of “politics”, “agora communication” and “agora concept of Citizen”, have been radically superseded.

The first, “agora change” is important not so much for the recent burst in social networks, — which despite the recognized clamor of their innovations are just a modern, even positive IT version of traditional assembly —  but because communications have moved from factual contents to entertainment performances to reflect the most striking change of human history in the second part of last century: the coming age of a world entertainment society, where during the electoral process, for a candidate to have proper make up can play a more significant role then to defend free education.

Democracy, for the Man of Athens, was a system by which all vital issues of the Polis were decided by the majority of people. The content of the issues to be decided were: “discussing whether or not to sign treaties, voting to raise or spend funds, debating military matters, appointment of a single man rule for the emergence and of course the most vital issue of a State, war and peace”.

Democracy was so much important that the assembly could also vote to ostracize from Athens any citizen, and that was the case of the man that with his military genius had saved the democracy of Athens from the attack of the most powerful country and had succeeded in the almost impossible task of defeating the immensely more powerful Persian army. Themistocles was exiled because people that democratically had brought him to power – in modern terms he could be called a populist because he appealed directly to the lower classes against the nobility – democratically expelled him from his country. Democracy functioned in a merciless way: To send away in the name of democracy the person that miraculously had saved democracy.

The U.S. border fence near El Paso, Texas. Photo Credit: Office of Representative Phil Gingrey, Wikipedia Commons.
The U.S. border fence near El Paso, Texas. Photo Credit: Office of Representative Phil Gingrey, Wikipedia Commons.

American democracy should keep this example in mind, especially when we witness that with regard to the issue of  the wall with Mexico there were 3 million more people opposing such a policy than those voting in favor — and the man of the wall becomes President and he will start building that wall. But why is that possible? Because building “a wall against Mexico” was a masterpiece of communication slogans in the best of Hollywood standards that overshadowed all other essential issues. A “coup de teâtre” in the best movie style, that probably single-handedly led to Trump’s election because it epitomized unemployed white male dissatisfaction in one visible symbolic slogan. Thanks to the “build a wall with Mexico”, the superior ability of Trump’s communication magicians had made disappear from public debates other real tough issues. Therefore let us notice that the old Aristotle’s “politics” is challenged not because votes are auctioned on the TV screen in a new multi-million agora spending system, but because they are auctioned with a slogan and advertising techniques that hide the real issues.

Aristotle’s politics: “Wherever the poor rule, that is democracy.”
Trump’s politics: 17 members of Trump cabinet, owners or heads of corporations, have more wealth then 1/3 of Americans.

The communication skills, borne in LA – Hollywood – focus the attention of the voters on trivial matters to provide the elected candidate the capacity to rule freely on real issues. Advertising has no time for promoting the real quality of a car. It prefers to play a game of individual personal emotional feelings to make somebody choose a Mercedes rather then a Porsche.

Oh Lord, won’t you buy me a Mercedes Benz?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends.

Janis Joplin, wonderful – past – proletarian singer, asks God to buy her a Mercedes Benz not because is a more secure car, but because it distinguishes her working life from the easy life of friends that buy Porsches.

‘The Times They Are A changin’: A ‘Trump Forever’ Or A ‘Future Bernie’?

With the emergence of the Man from Los Angeles the concept of Citizen concludes the most striking change ever: “Citizenship” does not refer to the individual anymore, but to corporations. Please notice that a Corporation, doesn’t get married, doesn’t read books, doesn’t produce children, doesn’t get sick, but it decides if same-sex marriages are possible, if educational books must reflect peoples’ values or corporations’ values, if the right to abortion must protect the women’s freedom or abide to religious decisions. And that is just the beginning. A fictitious individual (corporation) that does its best not to pay taxes in its country – usually very well succeeding not to pay them – decides how much less taxes have to pay rich people and how much more taxes have to pay common people. But even more bizarre, fictitious individuals (corporations) that have no blood and no flesh decide if Washington has to make war in Iraq, Afghanistan or Iran, and therefore to dispatch American people (not the corporations) to kill people of other polis and and to be killed for obvious retaliation.

When fictitious citizens (corporations) with no flesh and no blood make the decisions of blood to be shed or flesh to be sacrificed, that is the straw that breaks the camel’s back: Aristotle’s politics is dead. Let’s face it. A totally new scenario is developing in which “politics” as we knew referring to Aristotle’s books is totally out of the picture and we are in urgent need to invent a new word to replace “politics”, otherwise we engage ourselves in commenting, quarreling, arguing on qualities of apples, while we eat oranges.

Our well-deserved literature Nobel Prize collected through Bob Dylan – that Noble Prize was given to all of us who sang Blowing in the Wind, as the Noble Prize to Dario Fo was given to all of us who laughed at the Mistero Buffo – sent a world message in 1964 that “The times they are a changin’!

Did the America’s Liberals fully get this message? No.

Trump of course and Bernie are symbolic paradigms of a polis ruled forever by the “man from Los Angeles” or from the “man from Athens”. But in both cases, we have the obligation to start working the “good and bad” of the new “Corporatics order” in the best interest of America’s role.

Trump wants to use the heads of corporations in his cabinet? If you are not a billionaire then you are not going to be in government? Then why don’t we start working on a new “social contract” borrowing the term from Rousseau between “corporation individuals” and “individual citizens”?

Tocqueville, American democracy and Rousseau, new social contract

Portrait of Alexis de Tocqueville by Théodore Chassériau (1819–1856).
Portrait of Alexis de Tocqueville by Théodore Chassériau (1819–1856).

In a possible new “social contract” there are “corporation ministers” and “common citizen ministers”. Can we accept a Secretary of State coming from the oil industry? Yes we can. So many wars came from oil that we can positively assume he will be able to properly work on some better solution then just to make war to regulate conflicting interests. The present corporate Secretary of State may choose negotiations, rather then fighting. And for the final holocaust war produced by nuclear weapons, a corporate Secretary of State clearly provides much more of a  sense of security. Corporations want to become richer, they don’t want to run the risk of world destruction in name of power. No Hitler will ever be produced by a CEO selection.

On a different chapter of the new “social contract”, can we accept a Secretary of Education coming from private sector? Certainly no. She will not be acceptable for the future of America’s education. And in the chapter of environment protection, a CEO coming from corporate world cannot be entrusted to regulate the matter, since corporations have ignored environmental issues for decades to avoid damages. In other words, a new “social contract” will have to balance roles and functions between corporate (fictitious) citizens and human (real) individuals, and do that officially.

Why we should do this? Because Democracy changes. And we must recognize, no matter how much we might not be pleased by Trump, and certainly we are not pleased at all in many situations, it is thanks to him that America is again in Tocqueville’s time, presenting a working new model of democratic system. As such, we better study that model in a constructive way if we want to save some valuable old principle and perhaps add some previously impossible ones.

In this respect we are lucky to be able to watch America’s Trump election, because it is still by far the best place where democracy is in evolution. A new democracy that could provide not only the basis of a new “social contract” and also a new Tocqueville reasoning, in term of “Corporatics” logic could benefit all the world.

An Upanishad Guru: Knowledge And Names

When I wrote the first article, Trump vs. Aristotle, the “Man of Los Angeles” buries the “Man of Athens”, I asked Noam Chomsky to help me to provide a new name for “politics”. The greatest living linguistic scientist and at the same time the most profound visionary of decent modern life, was in my mind the right person to provide a new term. Since I am lucky to be able to communicate with him, I asked him a suggestion.

The search of a new term reminds me of a very old Upanishad story, where a young student begs his Guru to tell him how to reach freedom. The Guru asks him what did he do to get the needed deliverance. And the young man says that he studied mathematics, science, medicine, poetry. The Guru sends him away to work. But when the student comes with lists of additional studies, the Guru sends him again away. That happens at year’s intervals many times. At the end, when the student – young but not ready to eternal repetitions – makes a very long list of what he studied and he is clearly not ready to go again away, then the Guru explains to him that what he did while studying for his goal (freedom) was useless because he had learned names. Of course we know that “Politics” has very little to do with names, but in our case if we bury the term “Politics” and we start using a new one, it might be easier to think to of new Social contracts, and to a new Tocqueville version of America democracy.

Is the new name “Corporatics” a new term that makes the best fusion of Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and the Corporate world” and the search of a new form of Democracy? Let’s hope the great Noam will provide us with the most proper new name for reaching out of entropic Trump’s disorder, towards a possible constructive new America’s order. It will benefit all of us. When I send him this article I will ask again.

End of part II: Next Trump vs Aristotle, Metaphysics (3/7).

Check out Part One here.

Notes:
1. Let’s not forget that science came always out of philosophical exercise and its disasters come always from a lack of a philosophical approach in scientists.


Taliban Attack Targets Afghan Government Personnel

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By Cheryl Pellerin

A Taliban attack on a mosque and a dining facility today at Camp Shaheen outside Mazar-e-Sharif in Afghanistan has killed “probably more than 50” friendly Afghan forces and civilians, a U.S. Central Command spokesman said in Washington on Friday.

Air Force Col. John J. Thomas briefed the Pentagon press corps by telephone from Centcom headquarters in Tampa, Florida, noting that information about the attack, which had occurred just hours before the press call, still was being gathered.

“The attack was apparently against a mosque and a dining facility where there were Afghan government forces and probably Afghan civilians who work at the base,” Thomas told reporters. “What we know is that the Afghan national forces have responded, and they know that they have killed several enemy [fighters] in response to the attack.”

Thomas said that officials from the NATO-led Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan will follow up later in the day with more information.

The spokesman said there was “no indication” that coalition forces were harmed in the attack.

ISIS Operative Killed

Centcom also confirmed Friday that on April 6, Abu Bakr al-Uzbeki, an operative of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, was killed by U.S. forces during an operation targeting the member of ISIS.

Thomas said Uzbeki, killed in the eastern Syria city of Mayadin about 27 miles east of Deir ez-Zor, was a close associate of the so-called caliph of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

“Uzbeki facilitated the movement of ISIS foreign terror fighters and funds,” the Centcom spokesman said, noting the deceased terrorists had played a key role in ISIS’s external terror-attack plotting. He also facilitated the high-profile attack on a nightclub in Istanbul on New Year’s Eve that killed 39 civilians.

“ISIS remains committed to taking advantage of failed and weakened states,” Thomas said, “and we continue to move against those terror plotters as we go forward.”

US Navy F-18 From USS Carl Vinson Crashes Off Philippines

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A pilot was forced to eject jet as the F/A-18E assigned to Carrier Air Wing 2 was on final approach to the USS Carl Vinson, which is in the Celebes Sea, south of the Philippines.

According to the US Navy, the pilot safely ejected and was quickly recovered by a helicopter assigned to Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron 4 aboard USS Carl Vinson while conducting routine flight operations.

The incident is currently under investigation. The pilot is being assessed by the medical team aboard Carl Vinson and there are no apparent injuries at this time.

US Ambassador Calls Rama’s Pan-Albanian Talk ‘Careless’

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By Fatjona Mejdini

The US ambassador to Tirana, Donald Lu, said ‘careless’ calls for the unification of Albania and Kosovo undermined regional stability – after Albania’s leader, Edi Rama, raised the prospect in an interview.

The US Ambassador to Albania, has criticised the Albanian Prime Minister, Edi Rama, for mulling the possible unification of Albania and Kosovo if both countries felt rejected by the European Union.

“The US Government supports the sovereignty of Kosovo and Albania. We are against careless talk of unification. It undermines the stability of the region and the European path of both country,” Lu told BIRN.

In an interview for Politico Europe published on April 18, Rama, said that if the doors to Europe were closed on the Western Balkans, other smaller unions might emerge, such as the union of Albania with Kosovo.

Rama insisted that this was not what he himself wished for, but added that if the EU failed to integrate the Balkans, anything could happen.

“The only way to keep the Balkans in this peaceful and cooperative mode… is to keep the path to the EU open … No one would like to turn [in] on themselves and look for smaller unions, everyone would like to unite in the big union. But if there’s no hope, no perspective, no space, then, of course, little unions may happen,” Rama said.

On April 19, Rama’s statement was seconded by the President of Kosovo, Hashim Thaci, who expressed frustration over what he called “the lack of vision by the EU toward the region”.

“I have said also in 2013, and I can repeat that now: if the EU is closing the door for Kosovo, all Albanians in the region are going to live in the same space, in order to later integrate into the European family,” Thaci said.

Rama’s and Thaci’s statements have angered some in Serbia, where politicians condemned them as irresponsible and dangerous. Serbia still claims Kosovo as part of its own territory. The former province declared independence in 2008. Most EU countries have recognised this, but Serbia, Russia, China and a number of other countries have not.

Trump, The DOJ And Julian Assange – OpEd

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“I’m glad that the Justice Department has found a way to go after Assange. He’s gotten a free ride for too long.” -— Rep. Peter King (R-New York), Apr 20, 2017

There had been some doubts from initial enthusiasts about WikiLeaks once information from leaks released on its site started puncturing holes in an already worn Democratic campaign in 2016. Accusations of being an agent of Russian interests were being fired by various officials across the Clinton spectrum, though many Republicans, seeing the Clinton ship holed, preferred reticence, and even praise.

No better example is the current director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Mike Pompeo, recently in the front line of exempting WikiLeaks from free speech immunities. “Julian Assange,” Pompeo opined emphatically, “has no First Amendment freedoms. He’s sitting in an Embassy in London. He’s not a US citizen.”

The Pompeo of now, his patriotic skin rebadged and dry cleaned from the campaign, claims it “time to call out WikiLeaks for what it really is – a non-state hostile intelligence service often abetted by state actors like Russia”.

During the presidential campaign, Pompeo was rather thrilled to also avail himself of the trove of documents obtained from hacks of the Democratic National Committee. Tweets followed on the “proof” that the DNC had a strategy of fixing the candidate selection process.

But wearing the fake news hat in a new administration has seen Pompeo retreat from such statements, issuing not so much a clarification as a blanket denial that he ever considered WikiLeaks a credible source.[1] The world of post-truths is an expansive one to hide in.

As for the President himself, WikiLeaks was an exciting boon, a sabre to be rattled and directed at his opponents with searing campaign effect. “WikiLeaks catches Crooked in the act – again,” tweeted Donald Trump last October.[2] He also declared his love for the organisation and its exploits, noting in January how Julian Assange had essentially exposed the adolescent standard of cyber security fronted by the Democrats. “Julian Assange said ‘a 14 year old could have hacked Podesta’ – why was DNC so careless?”[3]

All of this places the latest moves behind the Department of Justice investigation of WikiLeaks and Assange in sharp, if contradictory context. Having assumed the mantle of president, Trump is remaining traditional to old concepts of imperial power. Staying mum about operations against North Korea, for instance, is one such example. His restraint regarding that matter on Twitter was not so much superhuman as abnormally deafening. The open information trove drawn upon with such relish is now proving to be a hazard, a liability to be distanced from.

On Thursday, CNN reported that the investigation against Assange, having gone a touch cold during the latter part of the Obama administration since being started in 2010, had been reignited. The obvious point about the reluctance on the part of President Obama’s Attorney General, Eric Holder, was that throwing the prosecutor’s book at Assange would also entail targeting more conventional outlets such as the New York Times and the Washington Post.

Assange himself has made the point that WikiLeaks simply advances the agenda of such outlets, supplementing their missions with material in the conventional tradition of leaks, albeit with greater panache.[4] What matters is the material disclosed “irrespective of whether sources came by that truth legally or have the right to release to the media.”

This point was certainly alluded to in Chelsea Manning’s trial. Of the 22 counts levelled at Manning for disclosing classified material to WikiLeaks, that of “aiding the enemy” was not accepted by the military judge presiding, Colonel Denise Lind.[5] To have done so would have drawn in the news establishment, including mainstream outlets, rendering the fourth estate a confirmed enemy.

Legal counsel for Assange, Barry Pollack, has attempted to dampen the latest spike of interest in WikiLeaks a touch by suggesting that there has been “no communication with the Department of Justice and they have not indicated to me that they have brought any charges against Mr. Assange.”

But Pollack is also clear that much of this is to do with the fact that the DOJ has simply refused to engage in any discussions with the organisation, let alone its legal representatives, about where Assange stands at this point of time. It lacks, as yet, a tweeting fiend to give that game away.

Trump’s current Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, has been clearer. At a Thursday press conference, Sessions seemed to suggest that the administration had every desire to cast a lasso around the information activist, and those in the “leaking” trade. “We are going to step up our effort and already stepping up our efforts on all leaks. This is a matter that’s gone beyond anything I’m aware of.”

For Sessions, the security environment has become one of anarchic, dysfunctional gloom, riddled with breaches. Notwithstanding the profiting of the Trump campaign from that every same environment, “We have professionals that have been in the security business of the United States for many years that are shocked by the number of leaks and some of them are quite serious.” Serious maybe, but only for the person in power at the time.

A final remark by Trump is apt here, if for no other reason than indicating, rather appropriately, the role of the WikiLeaks information machine. The defence may well choose to cite it should Assange ever be surrendered, or rendered and tried by US authorities: “The dishonest media likes saying I am in Agreement with Julian Assange – wrong. I simply state what he states, it is for the people”.[6]

Notes.

[1] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/pompeo-slams-wikileaks-but-he-and-trump-tweeted-praise-of-wikileaks-during-campaign/

[2] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/789487320290430976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fnews%2Fpompeo-slams-wikileaks-but-he-and-trump-tweeted-praise-of-wikileaks-during-campaign%2F

[3] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/816620855958601730?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fnews%2Fpompeo-slams-wikileaks-but-he-and-trump-tweeted-praise-of-wikileaks-during-campaign%2F

[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/julian-assange-wikileaks-has-the-same-mission-as-the-post-and-the-times/2017/04/11/23f03dd8-1d4d-11e7-a0a7-8b2a45e3dc84_story.html?utm_term=.6b9883ffc859

[5] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/30/bradley-manning-wikileaks-judge-verdict

[6] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/816999062562107392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fnews%2Fpompeo-slams-wikileaks-but-he-and-trump-tweeted-praise-of-wikileaks-during-campaign%2F

‘There Is No Life Without Jihad And No Jihad Without Hijrah’: The Jihadist Mobilization Of Women In Spain, 2014-16 – Analysis

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This analysis looks at the women who are recruited to join Islamic State in Spain: who they are, how they were radicalised and what their motivations and functions are within the groups, cells and networks in which they ultimately become involved.

By Carola García-Calvo*

The incorporation of women into the ranks of jihadist organisations in Spain has taken place within the context of the current mobilisation linked to the conflict in Syria and Iraq and the emergence of Islamic State as the leading organisation in the field, coinciding too with the emergence of jihadism of a home-grown character in Spain. Featuring their own distinct characteristics and patterns of radicalisation, such women share with their male counterparts both the goals of the global jihad and the means of securing it, taking a highly active role in promoting the caliphate, albeit at some remove for the time being from the front line of combat. This new development in jihadist mobilisation should not, however, be overlooked when it comes to addressing this type of terrorism.

Analysis

The rise of the Islamic State terrorist organisation as the new vanguard of the global jihadist movement and the establishment of its caliphate in Syria and Iraq in the summer of 2014 represented a turning point in the evolution of global terrorism. It was the advent of a third phase in the evolution of this phenomenon, characterised by a struggle for hegemony over jihadism between the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.1

In terms of jihadist mobilisation, the proclamation of the caliphate by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a speech he delivered at a mosque in Mosul in June 2014 represented the realisation of a project that had hitherto seemed almost utopian, aspired to but never attained by al-Qaeda, whether under the leadership of Osama bin Laden or his successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Muslims were thus urged by al-Baghdadi’s explicit call to undertake the migration, or hijrah, to the caliphate, as reported in the third issue of the magazine Dabiq, published at around the same time, with one of its articles claiming that ‘there is no life without jihad and there is no jihad without hijrah’ and moreover that ‘this life of jihad is not possible until you pack and move to the Khilafah [caliphate]’,2 thereby freeing oneself from the slavery of working for infidels. This, along with the popularity the new organisation accrued thanks to the victories it notched up on the ground, was the spur for thousands of young people –male and female, hailing from over 180 countries– to make the journey to join Islamic State’s ranks and take part in the consolidation and expansion of a project with global scope.

It was a call that had an unprecedented impact on Western Europe: of the 30,000 foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) thought to have travelled to the Middle East to join the terrorist organisations active in the region, principally Islamic State, 5,000 hail from Western European countries. No previous jihadist mobilisation, whether linked to such important conflicts for the Muslim world as the conflicts in Afghanistan in the 1980s, Bosnia and Chechnya in the 1990s or the war in Iraq in the 2000s, had had such a wide repercussion among young European Muslims. The number of people mobilised for the conflict in Syria and Iraq between 2011 and 2016 is some five times the combined number of individuals who travelled to the aforementioned combat zones.3 We are therefore confronted by a mobilisation of unprecedented size, and for the first time it also contains a significant female contingent. Around 10% of the foreign terrorist fighters alluded to above, some 550, are women.4

In the Spanish case, according to the latest official figures, of the 208 individuals with Spanish nationality and/or residence in Spain that have decided to travel to the caliphate since 2013, some 10% (21) are female. But in addition another 23 women have been arrested and arraigned before the Audiencia Nacional within Spanish territory for their involvement in terrorist activities linked to Islamic State. This contrasts with the fact that prior to 2014 no woman had been prosecuted in Spain for activities related to jihadist terrorism. Nor had any significant arrest been made prior to that date. It is only in the current climate that women have become involved in terrorist activities of a jihadist nature within Spain’s borders.

This paper aims to offer a sketch of a phenomenon that is as yet empirically unexplored, namely female jihadist mobilisation in Spain. While it is not possible to provide a typical profile for these women, it is possible to point out the features that define and differentiate them, from a sociodemographic perspective, from their male counterparts. Various equally important aspects of their radicalisation processes, and the motives that led them to become actively involved in supporting Islamic State, will also be scrutinised. Lastly, the functions they have discharged within the cells, groups and networks (CGNs) to which they belong will be explored.

With regard to this latter point, there is a good deal of debate surrounding the role that these young Western women linked to Islamic State may play in the future, in light of the territory that has been lost in the Middle East. It may be that this change of circumstances sees women taking on tasks in the West that are highly restricted for them on the ground, such as the planning and carrying out of attacks. Alarm bells have been ringing in Europe in this respect since the arrest in Paris in early September 2016 of three radicalised women who, according to the French authorities, were preparing ‘an imminent act of violence’. It is to this debate that the present ARI, on the basis of the Spanish experience, seeks to provide input. It is an important issue when it comes to establishing the response to jihadist terrorism –which is constantly evolving and becoming increasingly complex– in Western Europe, something that inevitably also needs to be addressed from the gender standpoint.

On an individual level of analysis, the present study is based on the information gathered from the 23 women who have been arrested and arraigned before the Audiencia Nacional for activities related to Islamic State between 2014 and 2016. It was drawn up using data provided by the Elcano Royal Institute’s Global Terrorism Programme, contained in the Elcano Database of Jihadists in Spain (Spanish acronym: BDEYE), which gathers information about individuals arrested in Spain for terrorist activities of a jihadist nature derived from legally accessible court papers, attendance at public hearings, open sources and interviews with police experts. While the domain remains a small one, and the results should therefore be interpreted with caution, the author believes that enough empirical evidence is available to give a preliminary account of this new phenomenon, something that neither the state security apparatus nor society as a whole can afford to overlook.5

A home-grown phenomenon featuring young women free of family responsibilities

Between 2013 and 2016, a total of 158 people were arrested as part of various anti-terrorist operations against individuals, cells, groups and networks connected to Islamic State. Up to 14.6% of them were women, a more than significant percentage bearing in mind that until the emergence of Islamic State no women had been convicted for this type of crime in Spain.6 The first anti-terrorist operation in Spain that led to the arrest and subsequent prosecution of females took place in Ceuta, in August 2014, when a 14 year-old girl and a 19 year-old woman were detained by agents belonging to the National Police Force (CNP).7

Although youth is one of the most striking characteristics of the people arrested in Spain for activities related to Islamic State,8 in the case of women it emerges even more prominently. The average age of the women covered by this study is 24, seven years less than the average age of the men arrested for the same crimes: 31.3 years at the time of their arrest. Almost three quarters of the women (73.3%) were aged between 19 and 28 when arrested, and the age span with the greatest frequency was between 19 and 23 years old, accounting for almost half of the cases (47.8%), although below this two underage girls were arrested, the youngest being only 14. At the other extreme of the age spectrum, the eldest was 52. These data do not differ substantially from those of other Western European countries gathered in similar studies.9

Another important variable for sketching the profile of women arrested in Spain for Islamic State-related criminal activities concerns their civil status, a variable where there are also notable differences between men and women. 45% of women were single at the time of their arrest, which is 16.6 percentage points higher than their male counterparts. By contrast, 61.4% of men were married, 36.4 percentage points greater than the women. There is also a percentage of widows (10%) –as opposed to zero widowers– who may be traced back directly to the case of two women who returned from the Syrian conflict after having lost their husbands, both foreign terrorist fighters.

In the context of this variable it is worth noting that, whereas 55.6% of the men had children at the time of their arrest, the majority of women (65%) did not have offspring. These results, taken together with those referring to age, are in keeping with Islamic State’s strategy of recruiting women whose identity is still in the process of being moulded, something that makes them particularly susceptible to adopting this extreme and rigorous vision of the Islamic creed. Moreover, they are related to other issues of a utilitarian nature, connected to the strategic need for these young women of childbearing age to settle in occupied territory, marry mujahedin and raise the next generation of jihadists.

Turning next to the nationality of the women arrested in Spain for connections to Islamic State, in more than six out of every 10 cases (60.9%) they were Spanish –more than half, 56.5%, were born in Spanish national territory– while three out of every 10 (34.8%) had Moroccan nationality –39.1% of them born in Morocco–. Of women with Spanish nationality, 65.2% were resident in Spain and the offspring of immigrants, born essentially in the autonomous cities of Melilla (36.2%) and Ceuta (27.4%). It is therefore a home-grown phenomenon, something that had already emerged in the current general context of jihadist terrorism in Spain. Another notable feature of the female contingent is that 13% are converts, lacking any manner of Muslim family, cultural or religious background, but who decided at a certain moment to adopt this faith as their own. It is a percentage similar to that observed among the men (11.1%).

Turning next to educational and occupational variables –and on the basis of the information available– it is evident that the women arrested in Spain were better educated than their male counterparts: none of the arrested women were illiterate or lacking any type of compulsory education, which is however the case with 8.8% of the male detainees. 87.5% of the women –compared with 25.7% of the men– had obtained secondary education, and 6.3% had completed higher education. In fact, according to the data available, 26.7% of the women were students at the time of their arrest, as opposed to 4.8% of the men, although this variable could be affected by the fact that the women are generally younger than the men. Another striking feature of the arrested women is the number who were unemployed, 33.3% of the total, 10 percentage points greater than the figure for unemployed men. In both cases, those in work were predominantly employed in the services sector.

Lastly, it is important to point out that at the time of their arrest for activities related to Islamic State none of the women had criminal records, whether for crimes related to terrorism or for ordinary infractions, something that by contrast is distinctly common among men, not only in Spain but elsewhere in Western Europe.10

Processes of radicalisation at the speed of the Internet

Among the women arrested and brought before the courts in Spain for Islamic State-related activities between 2014 and 2016 there is not a single case of self-radicalisation. All the women covered by this study acquired the ideology of jihadist salafism that led them to become involved in terrorist activities, whether in a physical or virtual setting, in the company of other women and under the guidance of a radicalisation agent, as shall become evident in what follows. In eight out of 10 cases this radicalisation process was endogenous in nature, in other words it took place at least in part within Spanish national territory, mainly the autonomous city of Ceuta for three out of 10 women (26.3%) and, for two out of 10, in the provinces of Barcelona (23.2%) and Madrid (19.2%).

The Internet has enabled women to insert themselves into radicalisation settings that would hitherto have been off-limits to them, thereby gaining access to jihadist propaganda. Thus, and in line with the campaign that Islamic State has explicitly run on social media to persuade women to partake in consolidating the project of the sharia-law governed ‘pseudo state’ in the Middle East, it is evident that women tend to become radicalised to a greater extent than men in an online setting. More than half of the women, 55.6%,thus became exclusively radicalised in this setting as opposed to 30.8% of men. By contrast, the women who became exclusively radicalised in an offline setting (16.7%) are 6.5 percentage points below the men who became radicalised in this way (23.1%). Although the predominant setting for women is exclusively virtual, for men it is the setting that combines online and physical encounters (46.2%), which is also the case for almost three out of 10  women (27.8%).

In the case of the online setting, the places where women underwent their processes of violent radicalisation were as follows: social media, for nine out of 10 detainees (93.3%), followed by mobile messaging applications, used by eight out of 10 (80%) and finally, forums and blogs, used by two out of 10 (20%). None of these places is exclusive and normally they are combined with each other, each playing a different part within the process.

What usually happens with online radicalisation is that, after making initial contact through pages or profiles in social media, where recruiters are searching for potential targets, and as the relationship becomes stronger, the activity is channelled towards more private and secure settings such as chats installed on mobile devices, through which the young woman being radicalised receives all manner of jihadist audiovisual content, and takes part in conversations about the content, either individually or as part of a like-minded group. Sometimes, the groups created in messaging applications and social media pages tend to reproduce the segregation by sex that exists in the more conservative and rigorous Islamic settings, with only women being admitted.

A striking feature of the indoctrinators, or radicalisation agents, in the virtual setting referred to above is the influence exerted by people considered to be ‘peers’ of the arrested women. In other words, the relationship is not founded on a situation of hierarchical superiority, underpinned by the indoctrinators’ contacts, charisma or social position. This was the case for almost seven out of 10 women (66.7%). Foreign terrorist fighters were involved in four out of 10 cases (41.7%). Lastly activists –charismatic members with contacts within the organisation concerned– played the role of radicalisation agent in rather less than two out of 10 cases (16.7%).

A good example of a radicalisation process in an online setting, involving various platforms and the participation of various radicalisation agents, is that of a 24 year-old Moroccan woman resident in the province of Barcelona, who on a visit to the country of her birth with her child, while her husband was out of Spain for work reasons, started to visit various social media sites with jihadist content, to which she became ‘hooked’.11 On these platforms she came into contact with a foreign terrorist fighter of Syrian origin and his sister, who tried to radicalise her by means of constant messages endorsing the caliphate. As the process advanced, the young woman struck up a relationship with a second fighter, who in turn put her in contact with a military commander with whom she ended up getting engaged. She held simultaneous conversations via various messaging apps with Wahhabi sheiks living in various countries in the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, whom she queried about a range of religious precepts. She also communicated with a husband and wife team of activists in Austria, who gave reasons supporting jihad and the decision of a woman to travel alone and unchaperoned to Syria. This was finally what she did, in the company of her three year-old child; the child was the offspring of her husband in Spain, from whom she was in the process of obtaining a divorce.12

As far as the radicalisation processes of women in an offline setting are concerned, these mainly took place in private homes –a highly common setting among jihadists in Spain before and after 2013– and in places of worship and Islamic cultural centres. In this case the activity between the two settings was sometimes complementary in the sense that, after making initial contact in the virtual world, a physical encounter took place between the women undergoing radicalisation and their agent or agents so that a stronger and more trusting relationship could be established, enabling the agents to increasingly influence the attitudes of the women on their path towards jihadist involvement.

The indoctrinators most frequently involved in face-to-face processes were people within the women’s close circles, such as family members (accounting for 42.9%) and friends (28.6%), in contrast to the situation among men, where activists were the most frequent agents of radicalisation. This also points to the more closed atmosphere in which the radicalisation of women takes place. It is again worth emphasising that one and the same person was sometimes exposed to the influence of various indoctrinators.

A highly pertinent case in this context is that of a 20 year-old woman from Ceuta who was arrested in Turkey on her way to the caliphate. She was influenced in the ideological trajectory that led her to undertake this journey by one of the two leaders of the first Islamic State-related jihadist cells to be dismantled in Spain, in the summer of 2013, who was a member of her family. He had also recruited and sent to Syria one of the young woman’s cousins, with whom she was very close. Another example of a mixed radicalisation in which the offline dimension played a determinant role is provided by the case of woman  from Ceuta who was arrested in the summer of 2014 on the Spanish-Moroccan border when planning an imminent journey to Syria. Once detained she told the authorities that she had changed her moderate views of Islam after a attending a mosque in Ceuta where the imam, who had travelled from Morocco to preach, ‘praised those who journeyed to Syria and Iraq, deeming them brave because they fought for Allah’.13

In any event, the enormous influence of the Internet and social media on young westerners ensures that propaganda reaches them rapidly, directly and in a language that resonates with them, resembling nothing so much as a marketing campaign tailor-made for its market. This has had a major bearing on the fact that violent radicalisation processes have become speeded up and conclude just a few months after starting. All the women in this study for whom information is available completed their radicalisation processes barely a year or even less from the time they began.

A better life in a project under construction

Before delving into the roles played by the women arrested in Spain for Islamic State-related activities between 2013 and 2016, it is worth enquiring about the motivations that led them to become involved in terrorist activities of a jihadist nature, in order to determine whether the women acted for the same reasons that impelled their male counterparts or whether, on the contrary, they involve another series of individual motives for pursuing a path towards violence.

While it is true that both men and women share the goals of Islamic State and the means for attaining them, the motives that disposed them to become actively committed to obtaining them are strikingly different. As far as the women are concerned, six out of 10 (61.5%) are more inclined to embark upon jihadism for reasons of an emotional or affective nature, including the promise of getting married to a fighter in the field, with whom they typically fall in love over the internet, or whose partner persuades the women to become involved with them. Such motivations are relevant to only one out of 10 of the men (11.1%), who tend to base themselves more on an ideological commitment to the principles and values of jihadist salafism or on instrumental reasons, such as acquiring status, a salary or attaining paradise (68.9%). Such incentives are the main cause for becoming involved for only 15.4% of the women. The data for the two kinds of motivation are therefore almost inverted when comparing sexes. Where the sexes coincide is in the fact that for both two out of 10  men (20%) and women (23.1%) existential and identity causes were the main driving factor in their terrorist involvement. The situations grouped under this heading include lacking a definite identity, a crisis caused by the loss of a loved one, a lack of inspiring life prospects and frustration.

A striking example of those attracted by the promise of marriage and the prospect of a family by settling in the caliphate is provided by the case of a 22 year-old Spanish woman, arrested at the airport in Madrid en route to Turkey in October 2015. She had converted to Islam just a few months prior to the journey and had decided to take this step after establishing a sentimental online relationship with an individual from North Africa, whom she was going to marry once both of them reached Syria.14 Meanwhile, in the case of a young Moroccan women who was also arrested on her way to the caliphate in 2015 in the company of her son, there were two motivations: the promise of marrying an FTF of certain rank in the caliphate, ‘a real man’ in her own words, and that of seeing her expectations of a better life in Spain –which she had entered as an economic migrant– thwarted.15 Lastly, an illustration of ideological causes is provided by the case of a 19 year-old woman, also of Moroccan nationality, arrested in the province of Alicante in September 2015. In the mobile devices found at the time of her arrest the investigators discovered numerous photographs of armed women in combat mode. One in particular showed a woman dressed in a black niqab that covered her completely, carrying the Islamic State flag and overprinted with the text ‘Strong and the strength of my God. In favour of the Islamic State’.16

There is no jihad without hijrah

In terms of the way in which the women arrested and brought before the courts in Spain for connections to Islamic State became involved in Jihadist activities, it is striking that all of them did so in the company of others, and that they belonged to CGNs with a degree of structure and internal hierarchy. There are no cases therefore of women who adopted the postulates of Islamic State on their own and sought to act in their name. Thus all of them became involved with others and moreover had some kind of organisational link with the terrorist entity based in the Middle East, whether directly or through another member of the CGN to which they belonged.

As far as their position with the CGNs is concerned, and applying the concentric circle model17, which conveys the importance and degree of responsibility wielded by each, it is striking that only one of the 23 arrested women is located in the centre, where the CGN leaders and coordinators are situated along with other notable militants dedicated to tasks of indoctrination. The only detainee involved in the nucleus of a CGN devoted herself both to indoctrinating other young people and coordinating the activities of other recruiters in the same network. Six out of 10 detainees were located in the second circle, where a greater variety of activities is to be found; typically, they were involved in the apparatus used to transfer other militants of the same sex to Syria and Iraq. Lastly, three out of 10 detainees were located in the outer circle, having fundamentally been recruited to be sent to Syria and Iraq. In comparison to the women, their male counterparts tend to occupy a greater number of leadership roles –three out of 10 (28.4%)– while those located on the periphery represent less than half the women in this third circle, 17.5% less. The majority of men are to be found in the intermediate circle, accounting for 55.8% of the total.

A good example of the active but secondary role of women is provided by the Kibera network, where despite being in charge of recruiting and indoctrinating other women on Spanish soil, the women were on the receiving end of instructions from the network leaders: two men based in Morocco.18

Turning now to the individual roles played by each of these women, and bearing in mind that normally two or more tasks were undertaken simultaneously, almost eight out of 10 (77.3%) were willing to travel to the caliphate and involve themselves directly in its construction. That is to say, their intention was not so much to wage ‘jihad at home’ as to travel to the territory occupied by Islamic State in order to join the project of the caliphate under construction, but without getting involved in fighting.19 This also emerges from the fact that none of the women performed functions of an operational nature, nor had they been trained physically or in the use of weapons or explosives. In the case of the men, willingness to become involved as foreign terrorist fighters also predominated, provided they had not already been arrested before being able to achieve this goal, although the percentage is notably lower than among women (47.7%).

Other functions performed by the women arrested in Spain include recruiting and radicalising other women (accounting for 45.5%) and spreading propaganda over social media and the internet (22.7%). Also notable are those engaged in praising their terrorist organisation online (18.2%). All these tasks are also performed by a significant number of men, who encompass a wider range of roles, including operational, training, leadership and coordination duties.

It should be noted however that in their various roles the women detained in Spain have made their firm commitment to Islamic State patently clear, publicly demonstrating their acceptance of violence as a form of achieving a political end and justifying the extreme measures the organisation inflicts on its enemies.20 For example, a 19 year-old woman arrested in Fuerteventura, born in Morocco but brought up in the Canary Islands, had publicly proclaimed –no less than twice– her loyalty to Islamic State on social media, glorifying the use of violence as a means of punishing the ‘infidels’ and ‘enemies of the caliphate’. Commenting on a video released by the terrorist organisation after the execution of a Jordanian pilot on 24 December 2014 in Syria she wrote: ‘every time I watch the video of Muad being executed and how he dances in the flames I kill myself laughing, although the first time I saw it I burst into tears, not out of compassion but out of fear of the flames of hell’.21

Conclusions

The mobilisation of women for the jihadist cause has emerged in Spain within the framework of the current mobilisation linked to the conflict in Syria and the appearance of the Islamic State terrorist organisation as the new vanguard of global terrorism. The women who have been arrested and arraigned before the Audiencia Nacional for jihadist activities tend to be young and free of family responsibilities, second-generation Spaniards born to Moroccan parents –born in Melilla or Ceuta– and predominantly therefore from Muslim backgrounds, although there is a significant number of converts. While none of the young women was illiterate, the majority had only managed to complete secondary education and were indeed occupied as students –with various degrees of success– at the time of their arrest. A third of them were unemployed. None of the women had criminal records for terrorist crimes or any other sort of infraction, and therefore at the time of embarking upon investigations they were unknown to the police and judicial authorities.

The radicalisation processes were endogenous –undertaken mainly in Ceuta, Barcelona and Madrid– and always took place in the company of others, in a predominantly online setting, resorting both to the internet and all manner of social media as well as messaging applications installed on mobile devices. They were guided in this process by a radicalisation agent, prominent among whom were other individuals, similar to the women themselves, or a foreign terrorist fighter supposedly operating on the battlefield.

In the Spanish case the involvement of women in Islamic State is mainly related to the promise of a life in the caliphate, of a foreign terrorist fighter whom they hope to marry, or to the frustration of not being able to lead a life in keeping with their expectations in their place of residence. It is, however, a complex process in which other factors of various kinds play a part. Thus the role of these women has focused on their willingness to participate in the jihadist project in the occupied territory, assimilating the doctrinal roles mentioned in the organisation’s texts, which continue to be highly conservative.

This does not entail that amid the decline of the caliphate in the Middle East their functions in the West will not evolve towards a more active role in the preparation and carrying out of attacks. The use of women in operational activities of a suicidal nature has proved to be a win-win strategy for the organisations, providing they are not arrested before achieving their goals: first it has been calculated that they are capable of causing up to four times as many victims as their male counterparts, given their greater ability to pass undetected,22 and secondly they attract much greater media coverage, owing both to their novelty (men are traditionally over-represented in terrorist organisations), and to the shock that is still felt upon seeing a woman commit violent acts, when they have traditionally and culturally been associated with peaceful values.23

Thus, amid the difficulties it faces on the ground, Islamic State may be contemplating a strategic switch to demonstrate its strength. It should not be forgotten that while life in the caliphate is subject to stringent measures of social control in terms of the behaviour that women must adhere to in all aspects of their lives, these do not apply with such rigour on European soil and it would be less serious to transgress them from a doctrinal perspective. By the same token, if their plans of undertaking hijrah to the caliphate are frustrated, or they return from the caliphate, the women in question could decide to wage jihad at home, heeding the calls of the former spokesperson for Islamic State, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, to attack their own Western countries of origin, published in the magazine Rumiyah at the end of 2016 and elsewhere.

All the foregoing means we must not underestimate the threat to security for countries such as Spain that could be posed by women recruited from the West into the global jihadist movement. This necessarily entails taking anti-terrorist measures and working on measures to prevent violent radicalisation, especially in the online setting, using the insights gained from gender analysis. De-radicalisation programmes also need to be designed that are tailored to their profiles and circumstances. Prisons and juvenile detention centres, places that have hitherto been removed from this issue and are now housing the first inmates convicted by the courts, will constitute a particularly sensitive environment.

About the author:
*Carola García-Calvo
, Analyst in the Global Terrorism Programme at the Elcano Royal Institute | @carolagc13

Source:
This article was published at Elcano Royal Institute . Original version in Spanish: “No hay vida sin yihad y no hay yihad sin hégira”: la movilización yihadista de mujeres en España, 2014-2016

Notes:
1 Fernando Reinares (2015), ‘Yihadismo global y amenaza terrorista: de al-Qaeda al Estado Islámico’, ARI nr 33/2015, Elcano Royal Institute, 1/VII/2015.

2 Dabiq, nr 3, summer 2014.

3 Thomas Hegghamer (2016), ‘The future of jihadism in Europe: a pessimistic view’, Perspectives on Terrorism, vol. 10, nr 6, quoting data from the Soufan Group.

4 Bibi van Ginkel & Eva Entenmann (Eds.) (2016), ‘The foreign fighter phenomenon in the European Union. Profiles, threats and policies’, ICCT Research Paper, April.

5 The author would like to express her gratitude at this point for the valuable comments of Fernando Reinares, director of the Elcano Royal Institute’s Global Terrorism Programme, and the work of Álvaro Vicente, research assistant on the Programme, not only for their work in managing the BDEYE but also for their immeasurable help in drawing up this ARI.

6 See Fernando Reinares & Carola García-Calvo (2013), ‘Los yihadistas en España: perfil sociodemográfico de condenados por actividades terroristas o muertos en acto de terrorismo suicida entre 1996 y 2012’, Working Document, nr 11/2013, Elcano Royal Institute, 26/VI/2013.

7 First phase of Operation Kibera.

8 See Fernando Reinares & Carola García-Calvo (2016), Estado Islámico en España, Elcano Royal Institute, Madrid, chap. 1.

9 See Anita Peresin (2015), ‘Fatal attraction: Western Muslims and ISIS’, Perspectives on Terrorism, vol. 9, nr 3.

10 For Spain, see Reinares & García-Calvo (2016), Estado Islámico en España, op. cit., and, for Europe, Rajan Basra, Peter R. Neumann & Claudia Brunner (2017), ‘Criminal pasts, terrorist futures: European jihadists and the new crime-terror nexus’, ICSR.

11 Patricia Ortega Dolz (2015), ‘Samira, la “reclutadora” de mujeres del Estado Islámico’, El País, 14/III/2015.

12 Audiencia Nacional, Criminal Court, Section 4, Sentence 38/2016, 15/XI/2016.

13 Juzgado Central de Menores de la Audiencia Nacional, Reform file 5/2014.

14 Antonio R. Vega (2015), ‘La yihadista de Almonte contactó con el islamismo en Sevilla’, ABC Andalucía, 25/X/2015.

15 Ortega Dolz (2015), op. cit.

16 Oral hearing of the summary trial /2014, session of 6/I/2017 at the Audiencia Nacional (Madrid), testimony questioned by the state attorney at 11:35.

17 For more information see Carola García-Calvo and Fernando Reinares (2016), ‘Patterns of involvement among individuals arrested for Islamic State-related terrorist activities in Spain, 2013-2016’, Perspectives on Terrorism, vol. 10, nr 6.

18 DGP, CNP, CGI (2014), ‘Informe de situación de la investigación’, JCI nr 1, Audiencia Nacional, Pre-trial proceedings 71/2014, 11/XII/2014, p. 315.

19 For further information, see ‘Women of the Islamic State. A manifesto on women by the Al-Khanssaa Brigade’, translation and analysis by Charlie Winter, Quilliam Foundation, 2015, and ‘Letter to our sisters, “Jihad without fighting”’, Dabiq, nr 11.

20 On this point, regarding the experience of other Western countries, see Melanie Smith & Erin Marie Saltman (2015), ‘Till martyrdom do us part’, Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

21 ‘Las amenazas de la yhadista canaria encarcelada: “Vuestra sucia sangre correrá por España”’, El Español, 24/VII/2016.

22 Mia Mellissa Bloom (2010), ‘Death becomes her: the changing nature of women’s role in terror’, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, vol. 11, nr 1, Georgetown University Press, p. 91-98.

23 Carola García-Calvo, ‘El papel de la mujer en la yihad global’, Revista de Occidente, nr 406, March.

Populism’s Rise Reshapes Global Political Risk – Analysis

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Risks of populism include substituting conviction for facts and threats to independent impartial institutions meant to safeguard democracy’s integrity.

By Kingsley Chiedu Moghalu*

For decades, political risk has been synonymous with developing countries and emerging markets in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The rise of populism in the Western world redefines the notion of political risk and teaches that risk has no permanent address.

Mitigating the risk requires avoiding arrogance toward those embracing populism. A dismissive response delegitimizes the phenomenon, leaving us unable to manage implications for democracy and all issues of economic development in poor countries, and the very idea of political risk itself. Those who oppose populism must engage with it rationally in the political space with the force of their own ideas.

Political populism, characterized by a desire to assert domestic democratic sovereignty and rejection of the “cult of the expert,” owes its rise to increasing rejection of the conventional wisdom by citizens who feel left behind by globalization trends favoring the elite that gained ascendance over the past 30 years.

The backlash was inevitable. To the extent that the idea of a “borderless” world diminished the voices of local populations and amplified the powers of bureaucratic global elites in Brussels or Washington, there was bound to be a reckoning between local and global forces for the control of the destinies of nations. These tensions, especially as they affect immigration, jobs and trade, have been long in the making, brought to the fore in an explosive manner by the Brexit referendum. The British vote to leave the European Union confounded conventional wisdom and strengthened the hand of the anti-globalists.

The phenomenon of globalization, while not dead, is in decline in political and economic life, with China’s Xi Jinping left as its unlikely champion. For globalization, whatever its virtues, was neither a benign phenomenon nor an agnostic one. It’s an agenda with global winners and losers, facing challenges from within industrialized countries, once prior champions, because large populations found themselves on the wrong side of globalization’s inescapable logic – the cost-benefit analyses of labor and supply chain costs and technologies that are the chief culprit in the death of the salaryman with lifelong job security.

The rise of populism and its many implications flow from concerns about international forces supplanting the sovereignty of nations. Scholars such as Hedley Bull advanced the theory of international relations known as the “English School” in the 1970s. The theory holds that the contemporary history of the world – and relations among nations – is marked by a tension among three phases:  In the international system, nations interacted in a formalistic manner, mainly through trade, military alliances and traditional diplomacy. Sovereignty was sacrosanct. The international society emerged in the late 19th century as technology broke down geographic distances, and maintaining global stability, not through a balance of power but through multilateral cooperation, seemed a superior path. Despite the rhetoric, competition and threats to global order continued among nations inside and outside these frameworks for cooperation – whether the Cold War or the “unipolar world” dominated by America after communism’s fall. Aspirations to a cosmopolitan world society sought to limit sovereignty and create a “borderless” world, a civitas maxima prioritizing human rights over national interests. This worldview fueled economic globalization, regional integration, the free movement of people and international humanitarian law led by “norm entrepreneurs.”

Populism seeks to reverse the power of the international community by utilizing the democratic legitimacy of the majority to re-assert primacy of the national interest – seen by liberals as isolationism or “nativism” – in public policy.

Home-country multinationals that ship production – and jobs – abroad can anticipate a backlash. Multinationals will no longer receive benign preferences and protections in populist countries if they cannot prove their value to local economies, especially by creating jobs.

Designing corporate initiatives to curry political favor erodes the free enterprise ethic. Business decisions may no longer be taken on the basis of market efficiency, injecting a heavy dose of partisan political considerations into corporate organizations, as shareholders react and CEOs align with populist governments.

Such trends hasten the decline of the global corporation as a business model. As The Economist recently noted, multinationals’ profits have dropped by 25 percent in the past five years, and 40 percent of such firms now make a return on equity of less than 10 percent. Global corporations may have Trump to thank for providing cover for a retreat from the failing original logic of profits driving the ascendance of multinationals over the past half-century. Trump’s populist movement focuses on global trade as functioning to the detriment of American interests, and this leaves the World Trade Organization squarely in the sights of populism.

But, if a tariff war breaks out and US companies become the losers – a real risk – numbers will impose discipline on populism. Moreover, as US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross asserted, several European and Asian nations are also guilty of protectionist policies even as they proclaim the gospel of free trade.

Likewise, the EU, which challenged domestic sovereignty, will be hardest hit as populism rises in France, Italy and the Netherlands. The EU is the most radical embodiment of the cosmopolitan world society worldview, a political project masquerading as an economic one but primarily formed to advance the great-power aspirations of France and Germany.

For developing nations, especially those in Africa, populism’s rise in the Western world may ultimately be beneficial, despite negative short-term impacts. These countries will be forced to confront mistaken assumptions about development that relies on the “benevolence” of foreign aid. They must reconsider unquestioning acceptance of the inevitability of globalization and their status as markets, not factory. And they have already seen that efforts to model the African Union on the basis of the European Union, complete with common currency, may not be wise in light of challenges facing the EU over the past decade.

African nations must embrace an inside-out perspective on economic transformation rather than the exclusively outside-in model that, in reality, robbed them of opportunity to control their destiny.

Industrialized countries, aided by technological superiority which produced value-added goods at competitive prices and the WTO treaty regime, flooded the markets of developing countries, leaving them import-dependent. Considering that more than 50 percent of world trade is based on manufactured goods and the rude awakening offered by populism’s rise in the West, these nations should pursue the idea of “smart protectionism” – by deploying the “special and differentiated” provisions of the WTO treaty that can apply to less developed nations to prevent the dumping of Chinese goods in their markets and create enabling environments for modest industrial growth and intra-African trade.  At 13 percent of its total global trade, Africa’s intraregional trade is the lowest in the world compared to North America, Europe and other regions.

The process of global unwinding must be managed carefully. If chaotic, it raises the risk of other knock-on effects, and the risks of populism must be clear:

First, attempts to substitute facts and empirical foundations with conviction as a basis for public policy create sub-optimal outcomes.

Second, populism, in its quest for favorable outcomes, threatens the independence of impartial institutions that safeguard the integrity of democracy and democratic states. Electoral victories should not become mob rule or a tyranny of the majority.

Third, populism, based on its binary convictions about bad and good guys and nations, as well as possible weakening of institutional frameworks, runs the risk of promoting instability in a nuclear world in which several weaker and irrational states possess weapons of mass destruction.

Populism, a product of democratic choice, can create mixed outcomes. Some, like the uprooting of corrupt and dictatorial regimes, are good. But in some cases, autocratic corruption can be replaced with a similar weakening of institutions and the conflation of populist sentiment with competent public policy, not to speak of new forms of corruption. Populism will likely co-exist uncomfortably with globalization – perhaps a scaled-back version – colliding with realities of the world and public policy. One of these is that experts matter, even if they are not always right.

*Kingsley Chiedu Moghalu is a professor of international business and public policy at The Fletcher School at Tufts University. He is the founder of Sogato Strategies, a global risk and strategy advisory firm, and a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Ethnic Sorting Out Of South Caucasus Nearly Complete – OpEd

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A century ago, the territories that are now Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia were extremely mixed ethnically, but as a result of a combination of conflicts and government policies, the three countries are far more ethnically monolithic than they were with fewer of each living in the other two.

In the current issue of Moscow’s Demoscope weekly, demographer Anzor Sakhvadze examines the shifting ethno-demographic balance in the south Caucasus with particular attention to the shifts among the three titular nationalities over the last 100 years when good census materials are available (http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2017/0723/tema01.php).

There were six censuses during the Soviet period (1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, and 1989) and censuses in each of the three since 1991 – in Azerbaijan in 1999 and 2009, in Georgia in 2002 and 2014, and in Armenia in 2001 and 2011. Over this century, Azerbaijan increased its share continuously, Georgia declined from the largest and Armenia also declined but not as fast.

Azerbaijanis have been the core of the population of their republic throughout this period, growing from 61.2 percent in 1926 to 91.6 percent in 2009. Ethnic Russians and Armenians vied for second place, but now the Lezgins are in second place, with Russians, Talysh and Armenians following.

The decline in the Armenian share of the Azerbaijani population has been dramatic. In 1897, Armenians formed almost 20 percent of the total. In 1926, they declined to 12 percent and remained at that level until near the end of the Soviet period, when they fell to 5.6 percent in 1989 and then to only 1.3 percent in 2009.

As far as ethnic Georgians are concerned, they were never numerous in Azerbaijan: at no point did they exceed 0.4 percent of the population.

Compared to its neighbors, Georgia has been and remains a more multi-national state. In 1926, ethnic Georgians formed 67.1 percent of the population. In 1989, their share had risen to 70.1 percent and in 2014, to 86.8 percent, high by world standards but low relative to the share of the titular nationalities in Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Georgian birthrates have been low and outmigration high. As a result, the total number of ethnic Georgians in Georgia declined by 14.9 percent between 1989 and 2014. During Soviet times, ethnic Russians moved in but not in huge numbers and most of them have left since Georgia regained its independence in 1991.

Between 1926 and 1989, the number of Armenians in Armenia rose 4.1 times while the entire population rose only 3.7 times. As a result, the Armenian share increased and in the latter year reached 98 percent where it has remained. Between 1959 and 1979, immigration of Armenians from Georgia, Azerbaijan and the North Caucasus provided 20 percent of the growth of the ethnic Armenian comment.

In Soviet times, Azerbaijanis were the second largest nationality in Armenia, at first growing rapidly until in 1939, they formed 10.2 percent of the population and then falling, especially precipitously after the Karabakh conflict broke out. Today, there is not a single Azerbaijani left in Armenia “for all practical purposes,” the demographer says.

Russians were the second largest minority until the 1980s when they were displaced by the Kurds. There were never many Georgians in Armenia, and today there are only 617 of them according to the last census. In fact, “today Armenia is practically a monoethnic state where there is a very insignificant opportunity for further ethnic transformation.”

With regard to the concentration of the titular nationality in the respective countries, the three vary as well. Georgians were until the post-Soviet period, with 95.1 percent of all Georgians in the USSR living in that republic. Armenians were exactly the reverse: Only 66.7 percent of all Armenians living in the USSR lived in the Armenian Republic.

Azerbaijanis occupied an intermediate position. Eighty-five percent of Azerbaijanis lived in Azerbaijan at the end of Soviet times, although outmigration means that that figure has declined somewhat in recent decades. As a result of all these shifts, Armenia and Azerbaijan are now mono-ethnic states, while Georgia is somewhat less so but moving in that direction.


BP Oil Spill Did $17.2 Billion In Damage To Natural Resources

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The 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill did $17.2 billion in damage to the natural resources in the Gulf of Mexico, a team of scientists recently found after a six-year study of the impact of the largest oil spill in U.S. history.

This is the first comprehensive appraisal of the financial value of the natural resources damaged by the 134-million-gallon spill.

“This is proof that our natural resources have an immense monetary value to citizens of the United States who visit the Gulf and to those who simply care that this valuable resource is not damaged,” said Kevin Boyle, a professor of agricultural and applied economics in the Virginia Tech College of Agriculture and Life Science and one of the authors on the paper.

Findings from the study are published in the issue of Science released Friday, April 21.

The scientists developed a survey to put a dollar value on the natural resources damaged by the BP Deepwater spill by determining household willingness to pay for measures that would prevent similar damages should a spill of the same magnitude happen in the future. Survey information included descriptions of damaged beaches, marshes, animals, fish, and coral.

On top of estimating the impact of the spill, the $17.2 billion represents the benefits to the public to protect against damages that could result from a future oil spill in the Gulf of a similar magnitude.

In May 2010, one month after the spill, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration commissioned a group of 18 researchers to put a dollar value on the natural resources damaged by the BP Deepwater spill.

To estimate Gulf Coast resource values, researchers created a scenario in which people were told that they could have a role in mitigating future damages by effectively paying for a prevention program.

Final analysis showed that the average household was willing to pay $153 for a prevention program. This rate was then multiplied by the number of households sampled to get the final valuation of $17.2 billion.

“The results were eye-opening in that we could tell how much people really value marine resources and ecosystems,” said Boyle. “And even more meaningful because we did additional analysis that proved the legitimacy of oft-criticized values for environmental resources.”

The project team administered surveys to a large random sample of American adults nation-wide after three years of survey development. The first round of surveys was administered face-to-face with trained interviewers while the remaining surveys were completed via mail.

Survey participants were informed of pre- and post-spill conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and what caused the oil spill. They were then told about a prevention program, which can be viewed as 100 percent effective insurance against future spill damages, and that another spill would occur in the next 15 years. With this information, participants were asked to vote for or against the program, which would impose a one-time tax on their household.

“Our estimate can guide policy makers and the oil industry in determining not only how much should be spent on restoration efforts for the Deepwater spill, but also how much should be invested to protect against damages that could result from future oil spills,” said Boyle. “People value our natural resources, so it’s worth taking major actions to prevent future catastrophes and correct past mistakes.”

New Digital Map Shows Changing Racial Diversity In America

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A geography professor at the University of Cincinnati repurposed NASA maps to show the changing racial diversity of every neighborhood in the continental United States.

Tomasz Stepinski, who previously served as a longtime researcher at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas, applied NASA mapmaking techniques to 20 years of data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau to build one of the most detailed racial-diversity maps ever created.

The zoomable map shows at a glance how the racial composition of neighborhoods changed between 1990 and 2010.

“People don’t realize that the United States is a diverse country but at the same time is still very segregated,” Stepinski said.

He and his postdoctoral researcher, Anna Dmowska, created the map at UC’s Space Informatics Lab. They published a paper about the map in the open-access journal PLOS One in March and will present the project at the Population Association of America conference on April 27 in Chicago.

Stepinski, an astrophysicist, came to UC’s McMicken College of Arts and Sciences as a Thomas Jefferson Professor of Space Exploration in 2010. Prior to that he worked on methods for surveying craters and valleys in Mars for the Lunar and Planetary Institute.

His interactive map was the culmination of years of work to combine land-cover mapping techniques with cumbersome volumes of federal data collected every 10 years in the census.

“There is a lot of novelty to it,” he said. “All of it adds up to much, much easier access to census data by population and race.”

The interactive map is publicly available and will be hosted indefinitely on the university’s computer servers. Dmowska thinks it will have broad appeal to journalists, policymakers and researchers.

“The maps can tell us much more about racial composition and can be used by everyone,” she said. “They don’t require expert knowledge to understand the results, so I think maps can be used by a broader community.”

The U.S. Census Bureau has the ability to release data by household but compiles it into geographic blocks and tracts to protect individual privacy. After all, census takers collect sensitive information about household income that people might not want to share publicly. A typical urban tract defined by the census occupies an area the size of nearly 3 square kilometers. Rural tracts occupy an area of 108 square kilometers.

This results in a visual map that by design isn’t particularly precise and, in some cases, might be grossly inaccurate, the researchers found.

By comparison, the maps that Stepinski and Dmowska compiled take advantage of NASA land-cover grids made up of 30-square-meter blocks. Using this grid system, they can more precisely group people where they actually live by recognizing lakes, parks, factories and otherwise uninhabitable areas.

“Then you can assign people to each 30-by-30-meter cell, down to fractions,” he said.

That’s right — down to half a person

Few social scientists who study national data need maps that are so precise. But it’s very helpful when looking at particular cities or even neighborhoods over time, Stepinski said.

These at-a-glance comparisons could be of interest to researchers, journalists, political strategists and social-service agencies. For example, researchers could compare the population maps with separate data such as grocery stores, bus routes or medical clinics to examine whether any neighborhoods are underserved by government services or businesses.

“The closer you look, the more problematic census data becomes,” said Jeffrey Timberlake, an associate professor of sociology at UC who studies urban inequality and residential segregation.

Timberlake said Stepinski’s maps are useful to study change at the neighborhood level.

“I find them fascinating. I spent an hour just looking at it,” he said.

“When you look at a couple neighborhoods in Los Angeles, you see a big difference between 1990 and 2010 in the shrinking black population and the growth of the Latino population,” he said. “This is the kind of tool that could unlock a lot of research.”

Dmowska, who now works at the Institute of Geoecology and Geoinformation of Adam Mickiewicz University in Poland, said updating the maps in future census years will be relatively simple.

“Our grids are ready to use for multiyear comparison,” she said.

The maps allow users to create their own smaller study area and then glean data from it. In some cities, they tell the story of recent immigration in America. For example, the maps demonstrate the influx of Asian immigrants in San Francisco over the last 20 years. Many of these newcomers are Southeast Asians who were drawn to the area by the Silicon Valley boom, Stepinski said.

And in Cincinnati, too, the census maps track the changing racial composition of the city. Neighborhoods that were predominantly white or black in 1990 are far more diverse now.

But they also show the way that racial segregation has defined some cities. For example, in the Detroit neighborhoods popularized by the Eminem movie “8 Mile,” the map from 1990 clearly shows the segregation of black and white communities on either side of 8 Mile Road. Here, too, neighborhoods have become less homogenous over the last two decades.

“If you put the population geography together with an understanding of the social meaning of that road,” Timberlake said, “you can tell a pretty powerful story about what segregation means.”

Le Pen Cools On Trump – OpEd

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US President Donald Trump stopped just short of a full-throated endorsement of French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, but her office expressed dismay on Friday at the prospect that Trump doesn’t appear to be altering course from Washington’s tendency to leave a fingerprint on virtually every armed conflict abroad.

“It is deeply sad and damaging for peace and stability in the world,” David Rachline told media of Trump’s recent military forays. Rachline is tasked with leading Le Pen’s campaign to victory, but despite what by many accounts seemed like an alignment of ideologies between the Trump and Le Pen camps, it turns out that may not be the case.
“We hope that what seems to be the considerations of the US domestic policy won’t be a factor of increased tensions around the world,” Rachline said.

“A hope for the end of interventionism after Trump’s victory seems to be weakened.”

Since taking office, Trump has dropped a 21,000 GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast on the Nagnanhar Province of Afghanistan – a $314 million bomb. And following an alleged “chemical attack” in Idlib, Syria, Trump justified launching 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Sha’irat airbase in the Homs governorate in Syria, despite being unable to furnish any sort of proof of the Damascus’ use of chemical weapons. The strike tallied roughly $83 million for the missiles alone.

On Friday morning, Trump tweeted about Thursday’s terror attack in Paris, France, predicting it “will have a big effect on presidential election!”

Later in the day, he said Le Pen was “the strongest on what’s been going on in France,” specifically saying the National Front runner is “strongest on borders.” Thursday’s terror attack will “probably help,” Le Pen’s chances this weekend, he added.

White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer told reporters on Friday Trump wasn’t gunning for any candidate in particular, a comment that seems to belie the president’s remarks.

Le Pen advocates for France to leave the EU, like Britain did in 2016, and is critical of French immigration policy, saying too many refugees and other immigrants are allowed in the country.

Queen Elizabeth II Turns 91

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Britain marked Queen Elizabeth II’s 91st birthday on Friday with gun salutes, as the monarch celebrated quietly at home.

A troop of the Royal Horse Artillery rode horse-and-gun carriages past Buckingham Palace before staging a 41-gun salute in Hyde Park at noon (1100GMT).

Outside the palace, a band of guardsmen in scarlet tunics and bearskin hats played “Happy Birthday” during the Changing of the Guard ceremony.

There was a second salute with 62 guns at the centuries-old Tower of London.

The queen is Britain’s oldest and longest-reigning monarch, having become queen on Feb. 6, 1952. She is also the world’s longest-reigning living monarch since the death of Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej last year.

The queen usually spends her birthday privately. She also has an official birthday, marked in June — when the weather is better — with the “Trooping the Color” military parade.

Is Marine Le Pen The French Donald Trump? – Analysis

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By Louis Rouanet*

It seems fashionable nowadays to compare Donald Trump to Marine Le Pen or the Trump movement to the French National Front. The idea behind this comparison is to suggest that the French far right might very well win the coming presidential elections in May 2017 and create a French “Trump surprise.” But, as when it came to comparisons between Brexit and Trump, comparisons between Trump and Le Pen tend to be hyped.

There are some evident similarities between Le Pen and Trump, but there are also crucial differences. It is true that both tend to reject mass immigration and globalism, that their discourse is deeply anti-elitist, and that the establishment, at least during election time, frenetically smears them. Their current successes flow from global skepticism of politics and the establishment media and the intelligentsia. Furthermore, France, maybe more than any other western country, experiences a deep identity crisis which was recently revived by the migrant crisis. This has been fertile ground for the National Front’s wins.

Marine Le Pen has, however, some fundamental differences with Trump. First, she is not a billionaire. Although this could seem irrelevant, one reason Trump appealed to so many electors is that he was not beholden to special interests, did not need to be president, and proved himself to be an efficient businessman, making projects happen ahead of schedule and under budget. For Trump’s supporters, their candidate was running in this election out of genuine love for his country, not out of material interest. Marine Le Pen, on the other hand, is a career politician. As with every career politician, her job is to be elected and reelected. Whereas Trump was a part of the private sector, Marine Le Pen made politics her career and is therefore not viewed as an outsider as much as Trump is.

On this note, Trump’s profile might be closer to another presidential candidate: Emmanuel Macron. Macron was a French government senior official and an investment banker at Rothschild before he engaged in politics. In 2014, he became minister of the economy in the socialist government until he resigned in 2016. Unlike Trump, Macron is no billionaire, but he nonetheless appears as a non-career politician who does not need to be elected (i.e., whose motives are supposedly selfless). Thus, Trump’s ability to identify topics of interest to the electorate is sometimes closer to Macron’s skills than to Le Pen’s.

After three decades of rising inequality in the US, Trump indeed identified that the game is rigged. His election was the revenge of the outsiders. Similarly, Macron’s ability to identify implications is based on the division between insiders and outsiders. Obviously, Trump’s and Macron’s policy conclusions differ. Macron is sensibly more pro-market, or, at least, pro free trade.

Marine Le Pen’s platform, on the other hand, is much closer to what could be called national-collectivism. Social justice and the condemnation of “ultra-liberalism” are strong themes in all her campaigns and her economic inspirations are much closer to the far-left than anything else. For instance, in their program, the National Front plans to make the tax structure more progressive. Whereas there are some pro-business or pro-market hints in Trump’s suggested priorities, there are none in Marine Le Pen’s.

When it comes to personality and style, it is probably the National Front’s founder Jean Marie Le Pen — Marine’s father — who is most like Donald Trump. The elder Le Pen started his political career in the Poujadist movement. In the 1950s, Pierre Poujade led a resistance by convincing the merchants from a little southern French town, St. Céré, to refuse tax payment. Poujade’s grassroots movement quickly grew and won 41 seats at the national assembly in 1956. Rothbard writes brilliantly on Poujadisme as follows:

Poujadisme is, indeed, a “people’s movement,” in the fullest sense of that overworked term. Paris was astonished to see the Poujadist delegates come to town: a parade of butchers, bakers, grocers, students, booksellers — the first real grassroots delegation in decades.

But, whereas Jean Marie Le Pen started politics in a grassroots anti-tax movement, the National Front is by now a 44-year-old party well established on the political scene. The Trump movement is little more than one year old. Marine Le Pen is now a constant in the French political landscape, not the novelty Trump is.

Other fundamental differences between these two blond headed political animals are apparent. Trump, on the one hand, never really tried to appeal to mainstream media and intellectuals. Marine Le Pen, on the other hand, after her father left political life in 2011, tried, until now quite successfully, to “de-demonize” the National Front. She opened the party to intellectuals, technocrats, and to the more moderate young generation.

Jean Marie Le Pen, who still is the honorary president of the National Front, immediately pinpointed the critical differences between Trump’s strategy and Marine’s. On twitter, while he praised the “tremendous kick in the ass to the mondialists and French political and mediatic systems” implied by Trump’s election. He also wrote:

Long live Trump! The de-demonization is crap and a dead-end. The peoples need truth and courage. Congratulation America!

This tweet appears to be aimed directly at his daughter’s strategy.

For all these reasons, we need to be careful when comparing Le Pen and Trump. In many respects, Trump is strictly an American phenomenon and it is doubtful that the French could ever elect a billionaire. But if Le Pen is more socialist, it is only because the French electorate tends to be more anti-market and pro-State. As within America’s Beltway, political power in France lies mostly inside Paris and draws an unchallenged line between Parisians and the subservient folks in the “province.” But, unlike populism in the US, the National Front constantly asks for more centralization in an already over-centralized country.

The differences between Trumpism and the French far right are not in themselves handicaps for the French but rather adaptations to different environments. The only thing that could be a prejudice for the National Front is that it might already be too mainstream. Nonetheless, although it is not to be wished from a libertarian viewpoint, a Le Pen surprise is possible in the 2017 presidential elections. Probably, Le Pen will make her way to the second round of the presidential election but will not win. This would already be in itself a shock for the two party system. If Marine were to be elected, she would have to change the electoral rules if she wants to have a majority in parliament.

The future is uncertain. Marine Le Pen has a long way to go before she can become the French Donald Trump.

About the author:
*Louis Rouanet
is currently a student at the Paris Institute for Political Studies.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute

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