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Will One Belt, One Road Meeting End Up As Damp Squib? – OpEd

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In yet another attempt to establish itself as the dominating world force, China is organizing the One Belt One Road Forum meeting in Beijing on May 14-15.

The OBOR project involves a land route running from inner China to southern Europe via The Netherlands. It also involves a sea route connecting Shanghai port with the end point of the land based route in Venice via India and Africa.

The project would involve an expenditure of about 5 trillion US dollar and the assets planned include ports, roads, airports, infra for IT , telecom etc. The project is supposed to connect 65 countries and half of the world population of 4.4 billion and 30% of the global economy. Implementation of the project could take around 40 years.

OBOR is a very ambitious project and even can be termed as unrealistic project. China knows this too well as well as several other countries who would participate in the meeting.

Is OBOR all about trade ?:

What is particularly significant for China about OBOR project is that 16 of China’s 27 provinces are covered in the vision.

Apart from providing huge economic and trade opportunities for China, the OBOR project will enable China to become the nerve centre of the world economic and business activities which will inevitably lead to it’s political dominance of the world.

China claims that OBOR is all about trade and it has no political objective.

However, this view will have no takers.

Why Other Countries Participating?

Obviously, several countries including United States and Western countries are participating in the OBOR forum more as a matter of curiosity rather than any hope or faith in the ultimate objective of the forum.

Apart from curiosity, another reason that several countries in the world are participating in the meeting is to explore the trade opportunities that they can exploit in China. They want to ensure that they would not be left out and at the present time, they lose nothing by attending the meeting.

Is Not UN More Appropriate Forum For OBOR Project?

The main point of concern for several countries in the world is that this OBOR concept has been initiated by China and not by a neutral or world body like United Nations.

The proceedings of this forum cannot be viewed in the same manner, as one would view the recent Paris climate conference where United Nations took the initiative . Even this well meaning Paris climate conference does not have a smooth way forward , as the Trump administration in US is now objecting to decisions of the Paris climate conference, which threatens to derail the plans and objectives. Will the China initiated OBOR project have better prospects?

Concerns about China

The world knows that the present government in China is highly ambitious and self-centred and wants to dominate the world both economically and politically. Certainly ,China would desire that OBOR project should move on in the way that it wants and with China being the most important part of it with most significant role for it.

China’s expansionist policies have already caused huge concern to the neighbouring countries, which are watching China’s actions with considerable anxiety. Countries like Japan and South Korea have military differences with China. Vietnam , Philippines and other countries have disputes with China over the South China Sea. India has serious objection to the fact that the Belt and Road plan violates India’s sovereignty, as it passes through the disputed Pakistan occupied Kashmir. China ‘s economic corridor project now being implemented by it in Pakistan is being viewed by India with great anxiety due to the military implications .

Even while attending the forum meeting, the underlying fact that China has been occupying the Tibet forcibly and is ruthlessly suppressing the local people cannot be ignored by the countries attending it. In the case of Tibet, China has ignored the world opinion and give an impression that it believes that force will always triumph.

The question upper most that would be in the mind of the attending countries is whether China would become more transparent about it’s plans and whether it would follow internationally accepted standards on environment, labour and trade and political relationships in future.

All said and done, Chinese government is a dictatorial one with one party ruling the country with no permission for any other party to even exist. Personal liberty for the Chinese citizens remains a big question mark in China. The ruling clique in the Communist party has also differences and power struggle amongst the politburo members is not unknown. Therefore, stability of leadership in China may also be a matter of speculation.

What would satisfy China now?

The world today is full of conflicts , with every country acting on it’s own interests without world view. Is the world going to become so different in the next forty years to become conflict free , which would be a pre-condition for the One Belt One Road project mooted by China to succeed?

In short, the OBOR meeting in Beijing would be used as an opportunity by China to make it clear to the world that it is already a leader or would be a leader very soon among the world countries. China will be satisfied with the proceedings of the meeting if this objective would be achieved, while other countries attending the conference will leave Beijing wondering as to what they have achieved.


Operational Ranks And Roles Of Female ISIS Operatives: From Assassins And Morality Police To Spies And Suicide Bombers – Analysis

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By Asaad H. Almohammad, Ph.D. and Anne Speckhard, Ph.D.*

Before deploying sources to collect information on the roles and functions of women in ISIS-held territories, a number of Syrian women rights activists were contacted. Approaching any topic that relates to violent jihadists and radicalization in Raqqa is often explained by the locals in terms of before and after ISIS takeover of the city.

One of the activists, who worked in an organization that focused on women’s health, reported:

“Things were never great before the radicals’ takeover of the city, before the days of darkness. As a woman working on the prevention of domestic abuse and raising right-based awareness among women in rural areas, I was troubled by the culture of silence and unquestioned obedience created by shaming women at many fronts. Things weren’t always bad, we had our wins. We made some progress; like girls’ education in rural areas, weakening a culture of servitude, the use of contraceptives… Daesh did to men what many men did to women before. You would expect that from radicals. But to see women oppressing, abusing, and belittling other women at this scale, it feels like betrayal. It is so repulsive that I feel nauseous. You know they have an office for Daesh women? If somehow you forget yourself and speak loudly or take off your gloves, you should pray that if Daesh catches you that it is the Daesh men. You can beg the men, you can apologize, there is a chance that they would limit their abuse to verbal. Daesh women have no hearts.”    

Indeed, in ICSVE interviews of Syrian ISIS defectors, including two women who served in the ISIS hisbah (Islamic police) we learned that women are the most brutal enforcers and take women who infringe on the dress and moral codes of ISIS to prison to flog and bite them. Women have actually bled to death after being bitten on their breasts and other fleshy parts with a metal “biting” device used for punishment.[1]

Women were among the earliest targets of ISIS. From slavery and sex trafficking to imposing strict Islamist rules and punishments preventing personal freedom and education, ISIS misogyny has been evident. While women to the largest extent are victims of ISIS atrocities, they also play significant roles in the terrorist organisation.[2] Without any reported combat presence, women’s role in online recruitment and the enforcement of ISIS Islamist rules and codes have been documented.[3] It is noteworthy that previous research argued that Islamist jihadi groups from conservative societies in which women do not play equal roles to men in working outside their homes often do not use women as suicide bombers or allow them to take combat roles until they get desperate.[4] Unlike Chechens groups who used women as bombers from the beginning, Palestinians and Iraqis jihadi groups abstained from using female bombers until it presented a clear advantage.[5] For example, when terrorist organizations’ leaders realized that male operatives became unsuccessful in passing through checkpoints while women could still hide bombs while breaching, they started using female bombers. To that effect, uncovered marriage certificate of ISIS’ brides[6] shows that both the husband and wife declare, ‘under conditions of wife,’ that:

If the Prince of believers [Baghdadi] consents to her carrying out a suicide mission, then her husband should not prohibit her.  

It is safely argued that ISIS might be looking to use more female suicide bombers in the future. Eighteen year old, Diana Ramazova, the Russian national who carried out a suicide attack outside a police station in Istanbul’s historic Sultan Ahmet quarter in Istanbul after her husband was killed (while serving ISIS) is an instance of an ISIS female suicide bomber acting outside ISIS-held territories. Ramazova, converted after meeting Abu Aluevitsj Edelbijev, a Norwegian citizen of Chechen origin, in an online forum and later married and honeymooned with him for three months in Istanbul. The two then traveled in Turkey and entered Syria in July of 2014. Edelbijev is believed to have been killed fighting for ISIS in December of 2014. At that point two-months pregnant and a widow, Ramazova—illegally crossed back into Turkey—possibly sent by, or fleeing ISIS. Once inside Turkey, she made her way north to Istanbul by taxi where she stayed in a hotel until January 6, 2015, when she used two hand grenades to attack the Istanbul tourism police station.[7] Whether or not ISIS deployed her has still not been established and ISIS has never publically claimed the attack. However, she had enough money to take a taxi all the way from the Syrian border to Istanbul and to stay in a hotel once there. It’s possible that in her grief over her husband’s death, she volunteered for such a mission rather than marry another fighter. If she was operating under ISIS, she would have been one of the first ISIS-related female suicide bombers sent to attack outside of ISIS held territory.[8]

A limited number of research papers focused on ISIS’ success in attracting women to join its ranks[9] provided some insight into the role, albeit non-militant functions, the daily life of Western women, what ISIS promises them, and how it views women recruits. It is noteworthy that the cited research relied largely on social media and defector’s accounts in deducing its findings. To that end, the understanding of operations, functions, rank, directorate-based affiliation, and population of women in ISIS’ ranks is yet to be fully crystalized.

A previous report as well as defector interviews commented on the potential activation of an all-female death squad by ISIS.[10] That report relied on information obtained from former ISIS members and suggested that the group limited its recruitment of suicide bombers to local women. In the absence of intelligence information and due to the limited number of women who have successfully escaped ISIS strongholds, the role of women, including Western migrants, might have been misrepresented. As such, this endeavour attempts to clarify a number of different roles and functions of ISIS’ female members (both local and foreign).

To that end information obtained from trusted sources in ISIS strongholds was used to portray the entities that oversee female-based activities. The following figure demonstrates the divisions and subdivisions that run the women-based Kataib (battalions). It also details the types of operational duties for each battalion. That includes the enforcement of sharia laws, surveillance, combat, intelligence, assassination, and infiltration. Moreover, the geographical reach of each battalion is outlined. Additionally, details about multiple leading women in ISIS’ ranks are presented along with the type of training provided to their respective battalions. Last but not the least, the figure displays the origin of registered and trained female recruits and size of the battalions.

Indoctrination, Recruitment and Registration

In June of 2013 ISIS declared Raqqa as its headquarters. At the same time ISIS was reported to engage in a wide campaign to appeal to the vulnerable populations in Raqqa taking charge of complaints filed by the public. It is noteworthy that at that time the city of Raqqa hosted a large number of internally displaced persons from other governorates[11]. At that time, Raqqa was one of the safest and most accommodating cities to people fleeing violence elsewhere in Syria. Syrians even referred to Raqqa as Hotel Revolution as it served a humanitarian function in hosting families affected by and escaping al-Assad’s regime atrocities. Some, both displaced and local civilians escaped the city before ISIS made it its capital; others didn’t have the means to flee to other Syrian cities or neighbouring Turkey, nor understood the importance of doing so. Arguably Raqqa was left with a large number of vulnerable people like orphans, widows, and the poor.

ISIS members, mostly males at the time, paid a significant effort to attract vulnerable populations to embrace its message and join its ranks offering them pay, food, propane allowances, stipends if their sons or husband’s were killed in battle, etc.. In early 2014, ISIS women also started to take part in that campaign. Along with their male companions, early female ISIS operatives made door-to-door visits to hand out food and money to poor residents and displaced persons and offering marriage to ISIS cadres to unmarried young women. These women also engaged in spreading ISIS’ ideology and raising awareness about the group’s Islamist rules and codes. In addition, they invited women to take sharia courses in the local mosques. A number of mosques were assigned the task of indoctrinating women and young girls. These mosques are namely, Al-Nūr, Imam Nawawi, and Umar Bin al-Khatab. The courses are now provided by ISIS women.

Another tactic ISIS used to get women to their indoctrination centers was via a policing force called the hisbah that used the carrot and stick approach with women who they deemed to have committed minor offences, such as wearing a face veil deemed too transparent, against their Islamist codes. The hisbah is group of male and female ISIS operatives, acting as the ISIS morality police, who intervene to coercively enforce the group’s doctrine through arresting, fining, detaining, and punishing individuals who are seen to stray from ISIS’ extreme Islamist rules. Women who get detained by the hisbah and are deemed to have committed minor offenses are fined 3,500 SYP on average. To ‘cleanse’ themselves from these sins they are forced to take a sharia course in one of the aforementioned indoctrination centees. According to interviews with defectors, including one woman who was herself a member of the hisbah, women who don’t get off so easily are taken to ISIS prisons where they are disrobed and flogged by hisbah women mercilessly on their bare skin. And if they are really unlucky, bitten with metal teeth on their fleshy parts so badly that some defectors have reported women bleeding to death as a result.[12]

The softer approach is often taken with young girls and women who are poor, single, divorced, or widowed who ISIS wishes to seduce into their ranks. They are not only exempted from paying the fine, but also get paid to participate in the course. It is documented that ISIS recruiters have a higher level of success recruiting women through the softer approach.

A Chechen woman by the alias Aum Imarah, who worked as a physician before immigrating to Raqqa, is reported to be a key recruiter. She is also the leader of a female-only battalion. Her rank and battalion will be discussed in a later section. Aum Imarah works with the women of the hisbah in overseeing recruitment programmes that target local Syrian women. She is reported to have recruited over 130 women to ISIS’ ranks. Given her nation of origin and heavy Arabic accent, that number is high.

Information obtained from trusted sources shows that ISIS has an office that handles the registration of women who wish to join its ranks. The office is located in an old Baathist youth centre in Raqqa, known as Hamida al-Tahir centre. The registration office encourages men coming from outside Raqqa governorate (foreigners and nationals) to register and recruit their wives and daughters into ISIS’s ranks as well. Females who are interested in security, intelligence, Internet recruiting or combat roles provide their details to the registration office. Each registered woman is given a recruitment number.

A woman known as Aum Kahtan is in charge of the female registration office. Aum Kahtan handles archiving all the information on female recruits. She in turn reports to six key female ISIS players. Sources have reported some details on the aliases of Aum Kahtan’s superiors:

  1. Aum Mariam: Reportedly, a French national. She is reported to be the leader of al-Khansa battalion.
  2. Aum Hiba: Reportedly, a French national believed to be Hayat Boumeddiene, France’s most wanted woman. She fled France after her husband killed a trainee police officer. Now she handles the training of new recruits. She is reported to have participated in training female Emni (ISIS security forces) [13] operatives and Western ISIS women who are affiliated with battalions that function under other divisions (not the Emni).
  3. Aum Muhammad: Reportedly a Tunisian national who was born with the name Subhiah.
  4. Aum Fatima: Reportedly a Swedish national who was born with the name Lisan.
  5. Aum Ibrahim: Reportedly a Tunisian national.
  6. Aum Abdullah: Reportedly a Tunisian national.

As of mid-April 2017 ICSVE obtained data shows the registration office listed at least 800 trained females who are affiliated with three women-only battalions, namely, Khadija Bintu Kwaild, Aumahat al-Moaminin, and al-Khansa. These battalions, as demonstrated in the infographic, are affiliated with different ISIS entities. Moreover, al-Muhajirin Directorate was reported to oversee an elite women-only battalion known as al-Zarqawi Battalion. The obtained data indicates that battalion has no less than 480 trained recruits. That said, our investigation also uncovered a relatively new battalion known as Bintu al-Azwar Battalion. To that end, the appropriate point of departure is made through presenting the first all-female entity within ISIS; that entity is al-Dawa battalion. Its significance lies in having established two prominent all-female entities and setting the ground work for women’s indoctrination, recruitment and training in ISIS as morality police, operatives, spies, infiltrators, assassins and in combat roles.

Al-Dawa Battalion

As mentioned earlier this battalion is the first all-female entity within ISIS. Members of this battalion took some basic sharia courses but were not trained to use weapons. In the early months of ISIS’ takeover of Raqqa, sometime after June 2013, this all-female group was formed. At the time, Aum Luay, a Syrian national from Raqqa, emerged as its first commander. The group, now disbanded, had a wide range of activities, especially before the closure of public schools in Raqqa. They helped to spread ISIS’ message through a campaign of door-to-door and schools visits. Members of al-Dawa handed out food, clothes, and money to those in need.

During that time, al-Dawa was not viewed so negatively by the locals, as the calculated moves of ISIS leadership to care for families affected by the conflict, particularly, orphans, widows, and the poor their desired effects among the local population. Al-Dawa operated under the protection of a Tunisian man known as Abu Mujahid. The group enjoyed the support of ISIS’ leadership and cultivated support among the female local population in Raqqa (both residents and displaced persons).

It was later that al-Dawa started to promote female training for policing under the hisbah, security, and combat roles. It is noteworthy that members of al-Dawa lacked know-how regarding the use of arms. Abu Mujahid was tasked with the arrangements required for the training of al-Dawa members and new recruits. The battalion, however started to lose its popularity among local women when it began taking the lead in the enforcement of ISIS’ dress code. That shift was largely noticed when the battalion led a campaign against women wearing high heels. During that time women who were seen wearing that style shoe were physically and verbally abused by members of al-Dawa. On one occasion they arrested a woman for not abiding by ISIS’ dress code and flogged her 23 times. Henceforth al-Dawa became a feared entity in Raqqa.

The majority of al-Dawa’s operatives were Syrians. That group was originally made up of 39 women. The group’s base was one of the earliest targets of the American-led campaign; it was attacked on the 29th of October 2014, killing 32 members of al-Dawa. Before the attack the battalion helped to establish two other battalions, al-Khansa and Aumahat al-Moaminin. These two groups are still operational, but the remaining al-Dawa members disbanded after the attack. Despite its demise, al –Dawa Battalion set the ground work for future all-female entities serving ISIS. With the knowledge that ISIS gained from forming and running its first all-female battalion, its leadership managed to cultivate more support and recruitment among young girls and women in its declared capital of Raqqa. The next generation of female ISIS members have been better trained in a much wider variety of roles, better organized, and move involved in the broader organization.

Al-Khansa Battalion

Al-Khansa is one of the two battalions that emerged from and succeeded al-Dawa. The current commander of the all-female group is known as Aum Mariam al-Faransi. She is a French national of Tunisian descent. She was brought from Mosul, Iraq and entrusted by ISIS’ directorate of fighters to lead the battalion. She is the wife of a key figure in that directorate and reports to him. The first leader of the group was born as Rahaf al-Madhun, a Syrian woman from al-Sukhnah, Homs. She was succeeded by a woman known as Aum Ahmad, who was born as Ibtisam al-Fahal. According to our sources, as well as defector interviews, Aum Ahmad used to own and run a brothel in the city of Raqqa before she “rehabilitated” herself under ISIS rule.[14] Before 2011, she had connections in the Syrian intelligence and army. She also worked as a fixer. Locals would pay her to bribe Syrian officials to resolve issues related to businesses or detained individuals. Sources reported that Aum Ahmad became very conservative before ISIS’ takeover of Raqqa. Moreover, she was killed, though it is unclear how, when, and by whom exactly. Aum Mariam al-Faransi is the third and current commander of al-Khansa.

The majority of al-Khansa battalion are foreign women from Europe. Among the European women, the majority speak French. The group also has members from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Of the members from MENA, Tunisians are the largest portion. A small number of Syrian and Iraqi women are also reported to be affiliated with al-Khansa.

Members of al-Khansa battalion are given military and intelligence training. They are armed with Kalashnikov rifles and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). They are also trained to assemble and make gun noise suppressors from basic materials. Recruits of this battalion are taught surveillance methods and how to carry out assassinations. This battalion’s main training camp is in a local institute in Raqqa, just opposite al-Fardus Bakery. The institute is called al-Khansa school. A woman who matches the description of Hayat Boumeddiene has been seen going in and out of that institute. Sources’ reports seem to confirm obtained data that indicates Boumeddiene’s trainees wear a brown uniform.

Al-Khansa battalion has been documented to conduct surveillance operations within ISIS’ strongholds. As the commander of the battalion, Aum Mariam oversees the operation of al-Kansa under the direction of ISIS’ directorate of fighters. She receives orders and reports to that directorate through her husband. The surveillance targets of this all-female group are those ISIS’ directorate of fighters deemed suspicious, be it women, men, journalists, rival fighters, or other ISIS members.

Recently members of al Khansa battalion have been seen armed in the city of Raqqa. This might be an indication of an increasing threat or that they might have been activated to carry out combat missions. European members of al-Khansa who have been weapons trained and ideologically indoctrinated pose a significant threat if they manage to return to their countries of origin, particularly as many Western countries give light sentences or no sentence at all to women returning from ISIS, assuming they were coerced or naively followed their husbands into the terrorist organization. This has indeed created a conundrum in some Western countries where women plead ignorance and innocence upon their return and there is little evidence with which to convict them[15] other than travel to Syria, or their fighter husband’s get convicted and they are allowed to live freely.[16] Some of al-Khansa’s recruits have received years of intense training on the use of arms and assassinations and are highly ideologically indoctrinated. Their potential involvement in violent activities in Europe could be devastating. To that end it is important to mention that, based on information obtained from trusted sources, al-Khansa’s surveillance operations in Syria have resulted in the killing of a number journalists and activists.

Aumahat al-Moaminin Battalion

Aumahat al-Moaminin Battalion is the other battalion, besides al-Khansa, that emerged from and succeeded al-Dawa. The battalion’s office is located in Zahrat al-Furat Hotel in Raqqa, located above 23 Shibat Bakery. That office is within a center of the hisbah. An Iraqi woman was reported to be the commander of this group. She is known as Aum Jafar. Her second in command is another Iraqi woman who goes by the alias Aum Zaid.

This battalion is trained in the use of arms namely, rifles and handguns. Its members are also trained to carry out defensive combat roles. However, this battalion has not yet been activated to participate in combat. Instead, it operates under the leadership of the hisbah’s committee and functions as its all-female arm. Its members are deployed to the streets to enforce, arrest, and inform on local civilians who are not abiding by ISIS’ moral codes. While the entity’s operations largely target and enforce penalties and punishments upon female populations in ISIS-held territories, they have also been reported to inform on male civilians.

Members of this battalion are heavily engaged in the indoctrination and recruitment activities of both female and male individuals living in ISIS’ strongholds. They are generally accompanied on their patrols by male members of the hisbah. The male operatives provide this all-female group with protection and carry out arrests of male civilians under the request of members of this battalion. A large number of Syrian women report to the leadership of the battalion. The second largest portion of this entity is Iraqi women. Defectors, particularly Syrians who sometimes do not distinguish clearly between these two groups (al-Khansa and Aumahat al-Moaminin) report that all European women are invited to join the ISIS hisbah (what they generally call these two groups) and are given a Kalishnikov and answer to almost no one.[17] This group’s key potential threat rests in its surveillance expertise. Their combat training could raise another threat if ISIS chooses to activate them as a defensive force.

Amaliat Khasa (Special Operations)/Khadija Bintu Kwaild Battalion

This all-female battalion is by far the most active and lethal. Its members are highly trained, especially in carrying out assassinations outside ISIS-held territories. They wear explosive vests and are skilled in assembling sticky bombs, the use of handguns, Kalashnikov rifles, and RPGs. The sharia courses this battalion receive are the most intense, compared to other female-based entities. The training of this battalion is provided by the Emni. Moreover, a woman who matches the description of Hayat Boumeddiene is reported to be on the trainers’ team. Under certain circumstances, operatives of this battalion are exempted from abiding by ISIS’ dress code.

Moreover, members of this all-female battalion receive infiltration tactics training. Operatives of this entity are sometimes referred to as Anghmasiat (women who infiltrate enemy lines). To that end, it is noteworthy that the ISIS’ Emni has since its inception used infiltration units to weaken or defeat rival forces.[18] Operatives on infiltration missions might advance undetected or remain behind to inflect maximum damage, as major forces retreat. Other tactics that ISIS’ Emni uses are the activation of sleeper cells and the use of spies to carry out attacks within rival territories. Along with assassinations, this all-female battalion is reported to be skilled in assembling explosive belts and devices.

After receiving training and taking ISIS’s sharia courses, members of this battalion are deployed to the city of Raqqa. It is reported that every three newly deployed members are paired with one to two senior operatives. Teams of four or five patrol the city for a few weeks before they receive local missions. Missions can include luring wanted males to particular places before arresting or executing them. For ensnaring males from big local tribes, the aforementioned teams were reported to instigate incidents to justify apprehending such targets. On one reported occasion, one of the teams failed in luring a male target. An operative of the team screamed, claiming that the male target assaulted her. Male members of the hisbah rushed to apprehend the man. The all-female teams often partner with male teams from the hisbah.

After finishing the patrolling phase, recruits get promoted to permanent positions within the battalion. The battalion functions under the leadership of the Special Operations office. That office is an executive branch of the Emni.[19]. It is reported that the Special Operations office managed to send some members from this battalion to a number of hot zones in Syria. Female operatives are reported to have been sent to Lebanon, Turkey, and Western Europe.

Under the Emni’s leadership, this battalion handles interrogating female detainees in Emni prisons. That includes western and local detainees. Members of this battalion are reported to be trained to use torture and their use of this interrogation method on detainees is documented. The population of female detainees includes kidnapped western and local women. The detainees could be accused of conspiring against ISIS, hostages who are detained for ransom, and spouses, daughters, mothers, and sisters of men wanted by the Emni.

The Khadija Bintu Kwaild battalion is notably active and present across Raqqa, Mayadin, Tabqa, Bu Kmal, and Mosul. The entity is reportedly led by a Syrian woman from the city of Aleppo who is known as Aum Ali. She was born as Swad al-Ahmad. The battalion has been active in carrying out special operations. Along with spying and assassinations, the battalion hunts ISIS’ enemies across ISIS’ strongholds and abroad. They are also entrusted with interrogating male targets outside ISIS’ strongholds. It is reported that they have led a number of successful operations against affiliates of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Aleppo and in Qamishli, against Kurdish and Arab targets.

Furthermore, they are also tasked with spying on suspected ISIS members. This entity is heavily involved in gathering intelligence outside ISIS held territories in Syria, Iraq, and neighbouring countries. They are trained to assassinate ISIS’ enemies within the group’s stronghold and abroad. A number of trusted sources confirmed that this all-female battalion reports intelligence and carries out operations under the direction of the ISIS Emni. Moreover, this entity was reported to take part in operations abroad.

As of early October 2015, sources reported that a female member of this battalion and a male Emni operative travelled to Sanliurfa, Turkey on a mission to assassinate Ibrahim Abd al-Qader a member of the grassroots anti-ISIS monitoring organization known as Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently and his friend, Fares Hammadi.[20] . The male Emni operative was reported to be Tilas Sruur a Syrian national from Raqqa. The identity of the female operative is unknown.

Tilas Sruur

After arriving to Turkey, the male Emni operative befriended and earned the trust of the activists. Then, he introduced them to his female co-operative who sources reported added sedatives to the their drinks while visiting them at their home. The male operative joined his female partner after the two men lost consciousness. Sources added that each of the operatives assassinated one of the activists by slitting their throats and nearly beheading them. In the months following the assassination social media accounts accused the male Emni operative of the assassination of Abd al-Qader. As of early December 2015, a picture of the male Emni member was posted online by one of the victims brothers, accusing Sruur of killing al-Qader. Sruur was also reported to be proud for his role in the mission. He has informed a number of individuals that he was one of the assassins. It is believed that the near beheading of Fares Hammadi was handled by the female operative. Sources added that the two operatives reported to an Emni cell in Turkey.

On another key operation, a member of this all-female battalion was reported to have carried out an effective mission. A former member of ISIS, with knowledge of key ISIS operations and figures, escaped to Damascus. The Emni’s special operations office assigned a female member of the battalion with the task of apprehending the deserter, and either bringing him back to the city of Raqqa or assassinating him. The operative managed to apprehend the target and bring him back to Raqqa. The journey from Damascus to Raqqa is long, with many areas controlled by the Syrian regime, FSA affiliates, and other Islamists groups undoubtedly crossed. The man was reported to have many bruises on his face by the time the female operative delivered him to the Wali’s (governor’s) office. He also was reported to be disoriented, which suggests that he might have been drugged. The man was dragged and humiliated in public before being taken to a detention centre in Tabqa. He was then interrogated by male operatives of the Emni and executed.

While the majority of Khadija Bintu Kwaild battalion are Syrian and Iraqis, Western European women make up a significant minority within the ranks of this all-female entity. It is reported that Syrian and Iraqi women take the lead on operations that are carried out in Syria and Iraq. The ranks and operations of Western European operatives in this brigade are still unclear. It is suspected that they would be more effective in carrying missions on behalf of ISIS outside MENA as they may pass security more easily as appearing less of a threat than their male or even middle eastern female counterparts. Whether Western European operatives are active in Europe or elsewhere is unknown.

Al-Zarqawi Battalions

This entity includes female and minors (males only). While the majority of the female members of units affiliated with al-Zarqawi Battalions are Europeans (Central Asian, Balkans, and Western), local Syrian and Iraqi women are also reported as affiliated with the battalions. Some of the local women are married to European members of ISIS. The female al-Zarqawi Battalion is led by a Chechen woman who is a trained physician. She is known by the alias Aum Imarah. Female members of the battalion are recruited and operate under the leadership of the Directorate of the Muhajirin (immigrants/foreign fighters). It is noteworthy that their training is handled by the Special Operations office of the Emni.

The directorate of the Muhajirin (immigrants/foreign fighters) is led by a Chechen man who is known as Abu Omar al-Shishani. The directorate oversees social, economic, and legal affairs that relate to foreign members of ISIS. That said, Aum Imarah, the commander of the all-female arm of al-Zarqawi Battalions, reports to al-Shishani, who in turns report to the Emni director in Syria regarding the operations of the all-female entity.

The all-female al-Zarqawi group is reported to be made of at least 480 female members. Members of this entity receive training similar to that of Khadija Bintu Kwaild battalion. The lion’s share of the training is in the assembly and use of noise suppressors and explosive devices (particularly sticky bombs). Female recruits of al-Zarqawi battalions are often seen in public carrying handguns and rifles. As of mid-April 2017, they started wearing explosive vests. They are also reported to approach local women and their male companions to persuade them to join ISIS.

Moreover, obtained information indicates that female members of al-Zarqawi battalions receive frequent training from Bintu Kwaild battalion. That training includes methods and tactics of infiltration. Members of this entity are expected to participate in joint operations in the future, under the leadership of the Emni’s Special Operations office and the directorate of the Muhajirin. Details on the planned operations were not obtained. Given the national make up (mostly European) of female operatives, European cities might be the target of such operations. While there is no documented field experience among members of this entity, their intensive training might pose a threat and as noted earlier, European and Balkan countries often do not imprison wives of ISIS foreign fighters who manage to return home not expecting them to be much a security threat.[21]

Bintu al-Azwar Battalion

This all-female group is relatively new. A number of sources reported that they first became aware of the battalion’s name during November 2016. This entity is reported to be led by a Palestinian woman who is known as Aum Mwath al-Makdisi. The group recruits both offline and online. Their online recruitment targets are young Sunni Muslim women, widows and divorcees from Turkey, Tunisia, France, Belgium, and the UK. Offline, the battalion promotes itself as a sharia course that is devoted to the teachings of Islam. Additionally, meals and financial assistance are promised to those who participate in the promoted sharia course. The offline recruitment activities were documented in Raqqa, Syria and its outskirts.

Initially, the courses are given in houses of the women who sign up for it. Slowly, the course begins to delve into extreme narratives and justification, similar to those preached by ISIS’ religious figures and spokesmen. Throughout the course, some women get excluded. Only those susceptible to ISIS’ message are retained. After finalizing the sharia course, the remaining women are offered military training. It is noteworthy that foreign women were reported to have taken the course on one occasion.

After taking the sharia course, interested and selected women start their training. The mission behind the training is to equip the women with the skills required to carry out infiltration operations, assassinations, and suicide attacks. Moreover, the recruits are trained how to use handguns, rifles, RPGs, knives, and explosive vests, to hide in civilian populations, and to install and remove explosive devices (especially sticky bombs). A large part of the training is devoted to the installation of explosive devices on targets’ vehicles and how and when to remove them if the target doesn’t show up or in the case of malfunction.

While the recruitment activities of this battalion are notably active, the division that oversees its operations is still unknown. This all-female entity might pose a threat to the American forces and their Syrian allies if its’ operatives are activated. Their training could allow them to cause serious damages on the forces attempting to liberate Raqqa and beyond.

Conclusion

Previous reports and research on females in ISIS have documented their role in recruiting both men and women online. Two offline functions, namely, their role within the hisbah and in carrying suicidal terrorist attacks were observed and reported by commentators. Using information obtained from trusted sources in ISIS held territories and neighbouring countries; this report endeavoured to determine and disambiguate the offline roles of women affiliated with the terrorist organisation.

To that effect, this report uncovered a number of aspects related to the organizational role of women within ISIS. Throughout this research, the evolution of such roles was observed. Early women recruits were found instrumental in spreading ISIS’ message and increasing local recruitment from vulnerable populations with the city of Raqqa. Women within the organization were associated with caring for the most vulnerable. ISIS might have intended to capitalize on the positive attitude towards women who pioneered the enhancement of their brand image by creating the first all-female entity (i.e., al-Dawa battalion). As members of the first all-female group started to operate as the female-based arm of the hisbah to enforce ISIS’ strict Islamist rules, the popularity of female operatives began to decline. At that time ISIS recognized the additional offline function of women in increasing local recruitment. They also saw an opportunity in training women to occupy other functions including spying, infiltration, carrying out assassinations and covert attacks.

The establishment of al-Khansa and Aumhat al-Moaminin battalions marked an advancement in ISIS’ learning curve. As discussed earlier, the later all-female entities were more professional and task specific. Through Aumhat al-Moaminin, the group empowered their female members to engage in surveillance operations and to enforce its strict Islamist codes among the local population. Giving its theological role, the entity capitalized on spreading the ISIS brand of Islamic teachings in increasing female recruitment. ISIS arguably realised the vital functions and operations (i.e., enforcement, surveillance, assassination and infiltration) women could play in the organization, particularly if it loses its territory and is driven into underground guerrilla and terrorist operations. ISIS’ Emni allocated resources to get women to occupy such roles through al-Khansa battalion.

ISIS seems to use the experience gained from running al-Khansa battalion to train and prepare female European operatives and recruits from MENA. Women in al-Zarqawi battalion, mostly European, are given notably intense training that resembles the one of al-Khansa. It is hard to imagine that ISIS would activate European operatives within the MENA giving their often reported poor Arabic linguistic skills. It is plausible that the ISIS’s Emni might intend to use them to target European targets in the future—particularly given that women returning to the West from ISIS often receive light or no sentences. It is also documented that since late months of 2016, ISIS has been heavily involved in recruiting local women.

Moreover, this report detailed the ranks and departmental affiliation of women within ISIS. Obtained information indicates that four divisions oversee the operation of all-female entities. These divisions are, Emni, the hisbah committee, fighters’ directorate, and al-Muhajirin’s Directorate. Notably, the most active all-female group is the one operating under the leadership of the Emni’s special operation office. The Emni is also one of the most active divisions in ISIS.

The training, geographical deployment, and armament of the discussed all-female groups are demonstrated. Having that knowledge helps to paint a clearer picture of women’s organizational capabilities within ISIS. ISIS does not seem desperate to activate all of its female operatives. Moreover, as they are hemmed in by opposing forces, the group might begin to feel the need to use its female recruits in combat roles, something it has up to now shied away from. Historical accounts on terrorist organisations suggest that groups like ISIS often, when desperate enough, activate female operatives to take on combat roles and suicide missions [[22]]. It should also be mentioned that the demonstrated capabilities of female recruits should not be underestimated. This report uncovered that females in the ranks of ISIS are capable of handling extreme missions and are able to inflict substantial damage.

*About the authors:
Asaad H. Almohammad, Ph.D.
is a Syrian research fellow and novelist. He completed his doctorate in Political Psychology and Marketing. His academic work addressed how psycho-political factors alter implicit and explicit emotional responses and to what levels these responses are predictive of political behavior. He has also spent several years coordinating and working on projects across ISIS-held territories. To date he has addressed a number of financial, operational, and militant activities of the terrorist organization. He is also interested in political branding, campaigns and propaganda, post-conflict reconciliation, and deradicalization. In his spare time Asaad closely follows political affairs, especially humanitarian crises and electoral campaigns. He is especially interested in immigration issues. @Asaadh84

Anne Speckhard, Ph.D. is Adjunct Associate Professor of Psychiatry at Georgetown University in the School of Medicine and Director of the International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism (ICSVE). She is the author of Talking to Terrorists, Bride of ISIS and coauthor of ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate; Undercover Jihadi; and Warrior Princess. Dr. Speckhard has interviewed nearly 500 terrorists, their family members and supporters in various parts of the world including Gaza, West Bank, Chechnya, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey and many countries in Europe. In 2007, she was responsible for designing the psychological and Islamic challenge aspects of the Detainee Rehabilitation Program in Iraq to be applied to 20,000 + detainees and 800 juveniles. She is a sought after counter-terrorism experts and has consulted to NATO, OSCE, foreign governments and to the U.S. Senate & House, Departments of State, Defense, Justice, Homeland Security, Health & Human Services, CIA and FBI and CNN, BBC, NPR, Fox News, MSNBC, CTV, and in Time, The New York Times, The Washington Post, London Times and many other publications. Here publications are found here: https://georgetown.academia.edu/AnneSpeckhard Website: http://www.icsve.org

Source:
This article was published at Modern Diplomacy

Reference for this Article: Almohammad, Assad & Speckhard, Anne (April 22, 2017) The Operational Ranks and Roles of Female ISIS Operatives: From Assassins and Morality Police to Spies and Suicide Bombers. http://www.icsve.org/research-reports/the-operational-ranks-and-roles-of-female-isis-operatives-from-assassins-and-morality-police-to-spies-and-suicide-bombers/ ICSVE Research Reports.

Notes:
[1] Speckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (2016). ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate, Advances Press, LLC. And Speckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (December 2015) “Eyewitness accounts from recent defectors from Islamic State: Why they joined, what they saw, why they quit.” Perspectives on Terrorism 9, 95-118.

[2] Speckhard, A. ( Dec/January 2016 ) “Brides of ISIS: The Internet seduction of Western females into ISIS.” Homeland Security Today 13, 38-40. ; Anne Speckhard (March 8, 2017) Women’s Roles in Terrorism and Women Fighting Back, ICSVE Brief Reports.

[3] Speckhard, A. ( Dec/January 2016 ) “Brides of ISIS: The Internet seduction of Western females into ISIS.” Homeland Security Today 13, 38-40. Speckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (2016). ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate, Advances Press, LLC. andSpeckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (December 2015) “Eyewitness accounts from recent defectors from Islamic State: Why they joined, what they saw, why they quit.” Perspectives on Terrorism 9, 95-118.

[4] Anne Speckhard (2008) The Emergence of Female Suicide Terrorists, , Conflict and Terrorism , Volume 31:1-29. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/8620947/The_Emergence_of_Female_Suicide_Terrorists

[5] Speckhard, A. (2008). “The Emergence of Female Suicide Terrorists.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 31: 1-29. Anne Speckhard (2009). Female suicide bombers in Iraq. Democracy and Security, 5(1), 19-50. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/10301179/Female_Suicide_Bombers_in_Iraq; Speckhard, A. and K. Akhmedova (2006). Black Widows: The Chechen Female Suicide Terrorists. Female Suicide Terrorists. Y. Schweitzer. Tel Aviv, Jaffe Center Publication.; Speckhard, A. and K. Akhmedova (2008). Black Widows and Beyond: Understanding the Motivations and Life Trajectories of Chechen Female Terrorists. Female Terrorism and Militancy: Agency, Utility and Organization: Agency, Utility and Organization C. Ness, Routledge. Speckhard, A. (May 4, 2015) “Female terrorists in ISIS, al Qaeda and 21rst century terrorism.” Trends Research.; Speckhard, A. ( Dec/January 2016 ) “Brides of ISIS: The Internet seduction of Western females into ISIS.” Homeland Security Today 13, 38-40.

[6] Speckhard, A. ( Dec/January 2016 ) “Brides of ISIS: The Internet seduction of Western females into ISIS.” Homeland Security Today 13, 38-40.

[7] Letsch, C. (January 16, 2015). Pregnant Istanbul suicide bomber was Russian citizen. The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/ jan/16/pregnant-istanbul-suicide-bomber-russian-citizen Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/16/pregnant-istanbul-suicide-bomber-russian-citizen

[8] Speckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (2016). ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate, Advances Press, LLC.

[9] Louisa Tarras-Wahlberg (January 9, 2017) Seven Promises of ISIS to its Female Recruits, ICSVE Research Reports.; Hoyle, C., Bradford, A. & Frenett, R. (2015). Becoming Mulan? Female Western Migrants to ISIS, Institute for Strategic Dialogue. Retrieved from http://www.strategicdialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/ISDJ2969_Becoming_Mulan_01.15_WEB.pdf; Saltman, E. and Smith, M. (2015). ’Till Martyrdom Do Us Part’ Gender and the ISIS Phenomenon, Institute for Strategic Dialogue. Retrieved from http://www.strategicdialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Till_Martyrdom_Do_Us_Part_Gender_and_the_ISIS_Phenomenon.pdf; Rafiq, H. and Malik, N. (2015). Caliphettes: Women and the Appeal of Islamic State, Quilliam Foundation. Retrieved from https://www.quilliamfoundation.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/publications/free/caliphettes-women-and-the-appeal-of-is.pdf; Speckhard, A. ( Dec/January 2016 ) “Brides of ISIS: The Internet seduction of Western females into ISIS.” Homeland Security Today 13, 38-40. Speckhard, A. and Yayla, A. S. (2016). ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate.

[10] Speckhard, A. (October 28, 2015). Anne Speckhard (October 28, 2015) ISIS readying to activate an “all female suicide brigade”? . ICSVE Brief Reports. Retrieved from http://www.icsve.org/brief-reports/isis-readying-to-activate-an-all-female-suicide-brigade/ Speckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (2016). ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate, Advances Press, LLC.

[11] David Remnick (November 22, 2015) Telling the truth about ISIS and Raqqa, The New Yorker. Retrieved from http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/telling-the-truth-about-isis-and-raqqa

[12] Speckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (2016). ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate, Advances Press, LLC. andSpeckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (December 2015) “Eyewitness accounts from recent defectors from Islamic State: Why they joined, what they saw, why they quit.” Perspectives on Terrorism 9, 95-118.

[13] Almohammad, A., & Speckhard, A. A., 2017) (April 12, 2017). Abu Luqman – Father of the ISIS Emni: Its Organizational Structure, Current Leadership and Clues to its Inner Workings in Syria & Iraq. ICSVE Research Reports. Retrieved from http://www.icsve.org/research-reports/abu-luqman-father-of-the-isis-emni-its-organizational-structure-current-leadership-and-clues-to-its-inner-workings-in-syria-iraq/

[14] Speckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (2016). ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate, Advances Press, LLC. andSpeckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (December 2015) “Eyewitness accounts from recent defectors from Islamic State: Why they joined, what they saw, why they quit.” Perspectives on Terrorism 9, 95-118.

[15] ARANEWS (November 2, 2016). Returning Dutch Jihadi bride under investigation for planning attacks in Holland. Retrieved from http://aranews.net/2016/11/returning-dutch-jihadi-bride-investigation-planning-attacks-holland/

[16] Speckhard, A., & Shajkovci, A. (April 14, 2017). Drivers of Radicalization and Violent Extremism in Kosovo: Women’s Roles in Supporting, Preventing & Fighting Violent Extremism. ICSVE Research Reports. Retrieved from http://www.icsve.org/research-reports/drivers-of-radicalization-and-violent-extremism-in-kosovo-womens-roles-in-supporting-preventing-fighting-violent-extremism/

[17] Speckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (2016). ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate, Advances Press, LLC. andSpeckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (December 2015) “Eyewitness accounts from recent defectors from Islamic State: Why they joined, what they saw, why they quit.” Perspectives on Terrorism 9, 95-118.

[18] Speckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (2016). ISIS Defectors: Inside Stories of the Terrorist Caliphate, Advances Press, LLC. andSpeckhard, A. and A. S. Yayla (December 2015) “Eyewitness accounts from recent defectors from Islamic State: Why they joined, what they saw, why they quit.” Perspectives on Terrorism 9, 95-118. Almohammad, A., & Speckhard, A. A., 2017) (April 12, 2017).; Abu Luqman – Father of the ISIS Emni: Its Organizational Structure, Current Leadership and Clues to its Inner Workings in Syria & Iraq. ICSVE Research Reports. Retrieved from http://www.icsve.org/research-reports/abu-luqman-father-of-the-isis-emni-its-organizational-structure-current-leadership-and-clues-to-its-inner-workings-in-syria-iraq/

[19] Abu Luqman – Father of the ISIS Emni: Its Organizational Structure, Current Leadership and Clues to its Inner Workings in Syria & Iraq. ICSVE Research Reports. Retrieved from http://www.icsve.org/research-reports/abu-luqman-father-of-the-isis-emni-its-organizational-structure-current-leadership-and-clues-to-its-inner-workings-in-syria-iraq/

[20] Speckhard, A., & Yayla, A. (October 30, 2015). The Long Arm of ISIS. ICSVE Brief Reports. Retrieved from http://www.icsve.org/brief-reports/the-long-arm-of-isis-two-activist-journalists-beheaded-inside-turkey/

[21] Speckhard, A., & Shajkovci, A. (April 14, 2017). Drivers of Radicalization and Violent Extremism in Kosovo: Women’s Roles in Supporting, Preventing & Fighting Violent Extremism. ICSVE Research Reports. Retrieved from http://www.icsve.org/research-reports/drivers-of-radicalization-and-violent-extremism-in-kosovo-womens-roles-in-supporting-preventing-fighting-violent-extremism/

[22] Anne Speckhard (2015). Female Terrorists in ISIS, al Qaeda and 21rst Century Terrorism. Trends Research & Advisory Blog.[Elektronisk] http://trendsinstitution. org/wpcontent/uploads/2015/05/Female-Terrorists-in-ISIS-al-Qaeda-and-21rst-Century-Terrorism-Dr.-Anne-Speckhard11. pdf Hämtdatum:[2015-12-22].

Bosnia: Medjugorje Shrine Gets Papal Thumbs Down

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In a hard-hitting rebuff to devotees of the unofficial shrine, the Pope on Saturday scorned the idea of seers’ receiving daily visions of the Virgin Mary.

In his most outspoken and critical remarks on the Catholic shrine in Bosnia, Pope Francis has dismissed seers’ claims to have daily visions of the Virgin Mary at Medjugorje as highly improbable and as “without value”.

“I prefer the Madonna as mother, our mother, and not a Madonna who is the head of a telegraph office, who every day sends a message at such-and-such an hour. This is not the Mother of Jesus,” the Pope said on Saturday on his way back from the shrine of Fatima in Portugal, where he canonized two early-20th century child visionaries.

“Who thinks that the Madonna says: ‘Come tomorrow at this time, and at such time I will deliver a message to that visionary?’” he added, speaking to reporters on the plane.

Six children claimed to have a vision of the Virgin in the then small village of Medjugorje in southwest Bosnia in 1981. Most controversially, three of them claim they have continued to have daily visions ever since. The three others say they have continued to have visions once a year.

From the start, the visions sparked enormous interest among Catholics, resulting in the unofficial shrine becoming one of the biggest Catholic pilgrimage centres in the world.

The Church, however, has withheld official recognition of the shrine as “worthy of belief” and at least five commissions and investigations have ended inconclusively.

The local Bishop of Mostar is among those who strongly dispute the visions’ authenticity.

The Pope has sounded a sceptical note about Medjugorje before, criticising the idea that the Virgin could act as a form of heavenly “postmistress”.

In February, the Pope appointed a Polish cleric, Henryk Hoser, of Bishop of Warsaw-Prague, to conduct a new investigation.

It is estimated that at least 30 million people have descended on the village since 1981, which has since grown into a bustling town, largely dependent on the pilgrim trade. The town boasts the most overnight annual stays of any town in Bosnia.

North Korea Says Missiles Can Carry Nuclear Warheads

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Pyongyang has claimed that its medium-range ballistic missile test carried out on Sunday under the supervision of Kim Jong-un has confirmed the “tactical specifications and technical characteristics” of the rocket which North Korea says is capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

North Korea has succeeded in launching its new surface-to-surface missile on May 14, Pyongyang’s official Central News Agency announced.

“The test fire was conducted with maximum angle of the projectile’s elevation in consideration of the safety of neighboring countries, with the aim of confirming the tactical specifications and technical characteristics of the new long-range strategic ballistic rockets capable of loading powerful heavy-weight nuclear warheads,” KCNA announced.

According to Pyongyang, the launch has enabled testing in “actual flight conditions” the missile’s “stabilization, structural, pressurization and launch systems,” as well as “reliability of the rocket’s engine” and its integrity “in the harsh reentry environment.”

“The launched rocket flew up to the maximum peak altitude of 2,111.5 kilometers along the scheduled flight orbit and precisely hit the target waters 787-kilometers away,” the communications ministry’s announcement read. The country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, led the launch of a new type of rocket, the report noted.

More analysis is needed to verify North Korea’s claim that it had successfully test-launched a ballistic missile, South Korea’s military said following KCNA’s announcement.

South Korea’s military also said earlier that the N. Korean projectile flew around 700 km before falling into the Sea of Japan. However, despite the North claiming it to be a long-range missile, the US military’s Pacific Command, which tracked and analyzed the launch earlier, said it was unlikely that the the fired projectile was an intercontinental missile.

“The type of missile is being assessed and the flight was not consistent with an intercontinental ballistic missile,” Pacific Command’s spokesman said.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the missile flew for 23 minutes before dropping in international waters in the central part of the Sea of Japan. While the projectile landed some 500 kilometers from the Russian coast, the missile test posed no threat to Russia, the military noted.

After the White House said that North Korea has been a “flagrant menace for far too long,” US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said Washington will not negotiate with Pyongyang unless it stops its hostile actions.

“Having a missile test is not the way to sit down with the president because he’s absolutely not going to do it,” Haley told ABC’s ‘This Week’ when asked about conditions for President Donald Trump’s meeting with the North’s leader. “I can tell you, he can sit there and say all the conditions he wants. Until he meets our conditions, we’re not sitting down with him.”

Late last month, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the Trump administration is open to direct talks with North Korea as long as the agenda is right. On Saturday, Choi Sun-hee, the North Korean diplomat who manages relations with the US, also hinted that Kim Jong-un might negotiate with Trump’s team, “if the conditions are set.”

The latest missile test coincides with rising tensions in the region and a massive American military buildup there. In an attempt to deter Pyongyang from more nuclear and missile tests, the US has sent a group of American warships, led by an aircraft carrier, to the region. It has also been conducting war games with their regional allies. Last month, Washington also positioned elements of the THAAD anti-missile system on the Peninsula.

Afghanistan: Angry Outburst Over Fake Medicine

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By Zamzama*

For the last year Ziaullah, a resident of Jalalabad city in the eastern province of Nangarhar, has been regularly taking the medicine his doctor prescribed to treat his kidney stones.

But his agonising condition had not improved for one simple reason, he told IWPR. It was virtually impossible to get decent medication locally, with a market flooded with substandard or out-of-date drugs.

“My disease has made me tired of living,” he said, explaining that as he lacked the money to go abroad for treatment, he had no option but to take the poor quality medication available and hope for the best.

“Between pain and poverty on the one hand and substandard medicine on the other, I can’t take any more,” he continued. “May Allah almighty help me, these drugs won’t.”

Out-of-date or counterfeit medicines are a major risk to public health across Afghanistan, and a particular problem in provinces like Nangarhar, where a common border with Pakistan provides rich opportunities for smuggling, including substandard pharmaceuticals.

Local people have accused both public health officials and the security forces of either taking part in the illicit trade or turning a blind eye to it.

“Anyone with a sense of humanity who was a good Muslim would not sell substandard medicines to people,” said Azizullah, another Jalalabad resident. “Some staff from the department of public health are involved in this business and share its profit, and this must be investigated.”

Nangarhar officials have acknowledged the problem, explaining that they were struggling to deal with the flow of out-of-date and substandard medicines smuggled into the province.

But Moqadas Miraj, the deputy director of Nangarhar’s public health department, denied any corruption and insisted that they were doing their best to stamp out the illicit trade.

Every month, tonnes of low-quality and out-of-date medicines were collected and destroyed in Jalalabad.

As for those found selling such contraband, Miraj said, “We take legal action through issuing financial penalties, closing down pharmacies and confiscating drugs. Every day our teams carry out inspections across the city, collect expired medicines and burn them.”

Idress Momand, spokesman of the Nangarhar border police, also denied that his forces accepted bribes in return for allowing counterfeit drugs to be smuggled into the country, insisting that they constantly tried to prevent this illegal trade.

“We can’t deny that substandard medicines are smuggled through the border areas, but in areas where our forces have set up outposts no one can smuggle such medicines or any other material into Afghanistan.”

Ehsan Shinwari, head of the Nangarhar Civil Hospital, said that the problem had reached such a level people no longer felt they could rely on Afghan doctors and instead sought treatment in Pakistan wherever possible.

“People don’t trust their doctors, but doctors are not to blame, as they properly prescribe medicines for patients but due to the poor quality of these medicines the treatment doesn’t work,” Shinwari said. “However, if the same medicines are prescribed by a doctor in Pakistan, the patient will respond to treatment and quickly recover, as the quality of medicines are better. We are trying to tackle this problem and we’re collecting out-of-date drugs daily and destroying them.”

Fozullah Kakar, a doctor who has a private practice in Jalalabad, agreed that the substandard medicines in circulation had damaged the reputation of the local medical profession.

He accepted that some doctors were involved in this trade but said that this was only a minority. The real culprits were the drug importers, Kakar argued, because they purposely bought cheap, low-quality drugs abroad to resell for a greater profit in Afghanistan.

“The medicines that are imported through smuggling routes are always of low quality, and the medicines that are imported legally are also of low quality. The medication doesn’t work as it’s intended to and then it’s the doctors who are blamed.”

Some pharmacists blame the public for not being willing to pay top prices for high-quality medicine.

Faridullah, who owns the Farid pharmacy in Jalalabad, said that patients needed to shoulder some of the blame for the market in inferior medicines since they often sought out the cheapest possible option.

MAJOR BUSINESS

Khan Jan Alokozay, the vice-chairman of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry said that Afghanistan imported 400 million US dollars worth of legal drugs from Pakistan each year.

But Najibullah Sahibzada, head of the Association of Pharmaceutical Businesses in Nangarhar, refuted any suggestion that his members knowingly smuggled low quality medicines into Afghanistan.

He said that all drugs importing companies were registered with the government.

“I categorically deny that the drug corporations and companies import substandard medicines,” he said. “If someone has smuggled it privately, then that’s a separate issue. Corporations do not import substandard medicines and if it was discovered then their license would be terminated.”

The first major medicine and foodstuff quality-control laboratory, which cost five million US dollars to build, staff and equip, was inaugurated in Kabul in April 2017. But testing all imported drugs will prove expensive, and the smuggling routes are so established that few expect there to be much impact on the illicit pharmaceutical trade.

Nusrat, a civil society activist, said that border police were bribed to allow substandard medicines into Nangarhar province via well-known smuggling routes.

“If government corruption ends, then the buying, selling and smuggling of substandard medicine will also end, as corruption is enabling this problem,” he said.

Ordinary people say that they remain at the mercy of local pharmacies.

“My small daughter got sick and we took her to a doctor,” said Sayed Mirza, a 20-year-old who runs a grocery shop in Jalalabad’s Eidgah city. “The doctor prescribed some medicine but instead of getting better, she got even worse. When we took her to another doctor, he said that the medicines were just poor quality.”

This report was produced under IWPR’s Promoting Human Rights and Good Governance in Afghanistan initiative, funded by the European Union Delegation to Afghanistan. This article appeared at IWPR’s ARR 572

Veterans With PTSD Have Increased ‘Fight Or Flight’ Response

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Young veterans with combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have an increased ‘fight or flight’ response during mental stress, according to new findings published this week in the Journal of Physiology.

The team at Emory University School of Medicine, led by Dr Jeanie Park, believe that this contributes to the increased risk of high blood pressure and heart disease in PTSD patients.

PTSD is prevalent in both military and civilian populations. The lifetime prevalence of PTSD in US adults is 7.8% and around 14% in post-9/11 veterans (1). PTSD patients are known to have a higher risk for developing high blood pressure and cardiovascular disease.

The researchers also found that veterans with PTSD had higher adrenaline levels and less control of their heart rate in response to blood pressure changes. While previous studies have suggested that the sympathetic nervous system- the ‘fight or flight’ response- of veterans is overactive, this study was the first to measure this increased activity directly and provide a potential mechanism behind this response.

Dr Park and her team took these measurements while the participants experienced two types of mental stress. First-person war images and sounds shown through virtual reality goggles recreated mental stress related to PTSD. Mental arithmetic elicited mental stress un-related to PTSD.

They studied the physiology of post-9/11 veterans, 14 of whom had PTSD and 14 who did not. They measured blood pressure, performed an electrocardiogram (EKG), and recorded sympathetic nerve activity directly in real-time using electrodes placed inside a large nerve. This technique is called microneurography and is considered the gold-standard method for assessing sympathetic nervous system activity in humans.

Commenting on the study, Dr Park said: ‘To protect patients against high blood pressure and heart disease, we need to first understand how their physiology malfunctions. We can then identify potential treatments.’

‘This study looked specifically at veterans with combat-related PTSD, so the findings do not necessarily apply to non-veterans with PTSD, nor to patients with non-combat-related PTSD,’ she added.

Georgia, China Sign Free Trade Agreement

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(Civil.Ge) — Georgia’s Economy Minister Giorgi Gakharia and China’s Commerce Minister Zhong Shan signed on Saturday the free trade agreement to expand bilateral trade on goods and services.

“Today is a very important and special day for Georgia in terms of developing international investments, trade and people-to-people relations. This is an agreement that elevates Georgian-Chinese relations to a whole new level,” Economy Minister Giorgi Gakharia stated.

“Georgia has a steadily growing export to China. We see a great potential in concluding free trade agreements with big economies such as China, as we believe that Georgia should become the most convenient, comfortable and attractive platform for trade between big economies,” Gakharia added.

Once the agreement takes effect (tentatively at the end of 2017 or early 2018), Georgia will apply no tariffs on 96.5 percent of products from China immediately, while 90.9 percent of Chinese imports from Georgia will be exempted from tariffs immediately and another three percent will be exempted from tariffs within five years, Xinhua news agency reported.

The two countries launched the free trade agreement negotiations in December 2015 and successfully completed it in October 2016, sealing Beijing’s first-ever first free trade agreement in the Eurasian region.

China was the fourth largest trading partner for Georgia in 2016. According to the National Statistics Office of Georgia, Georgia’s trade turnover with China stood at USD 717 million in 2016 with exports increasing by 30% y/y to USD 170 million and imports down by 7% y/y to USD 547 million in 2016.

Harrison Ford Talks About Role In ‘Blade Runner’ Sequel

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Harrison Ford has revealed why he decided to feature in the forthcoming Blade Runner sequel, NME reports.

The Star Wars actor played the lead role in Ridley Scott’s original 1982 movie and he will be reprising his iconic role in Denis Villeneuve’s upcoming sequel later this year – Blade Runner 2049 – which also stars Ryan Gosling. A new trailer for the long-awaited sequel was recently posted online.

Speaking about his return in an IMAX Q&A on Facebook, Ford said: “The character [Rick Deckard] is woven into the story in a way that intrigued me. There’s a very strong emotional context. The relationship between the character Deckard – that I play – and other characters is fascinating. I think it’s interesting to develop a character after a period of time – to revisit a character.”

Ford recently returned to the Star Wars franchise after several years away to play Han Solo.

Set 30 years after Blade Runner, the sequel follows an LAPD officer named K (Ryan Gosling) in search of Rick Deckard (Harrison Ford), who has been missing since the events of the first movie.

Gosling and Ford star alongside Jared Leto (Suicide Squad), Dave Bautista (Guardians of the Galaxy), Robin Wright (House of Cards) and Mackenzie Davis (Halt and Catch Fire).

Icelandic composer Jóhann Jóhannsson, whose Theory of Everything score was nominated for an Academy Award, has been chosen to score the film.

Gosling recently revealed that Ford accidentally punched him in the face during filming.

The new film is also set to bring back another classic character from the 1982 original.

Actor Edward James Olmos revealed back in March: “This is the first time that I’m telling the whole world, that yes, I am going to be Eduardo Gaff in Blade Runner 2049. I signed a seven-page non-disclosure contract. I did, my manager did, my agent did, everybody did. I couldn’t talk about it. I couldn’t talk about it to anybody.”

The long-awaited sequel to the classic 1982 film will hit screens on October 6.


Tillerson Says Trump Weighing Impact Of Embassy Move On Middle East Peace

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By Hani Hazaimeh

US President Donald Trump is pondering whether moving the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem would help or hurt the prospect of an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Sunday, revealing the criteria Trump is following to reach a decision that will no doubt reverberate throughout the volatile Middle East.

“The president is being very careful to understand how such a decision would impact the peace process,” Tillerson said in an interview broadcast Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

While the Israelis seemed dismayed by the new development, the Palestinians said it is a step in the right decision, one that has the potential to increase the chance of having peace negations resume between Palestinians and Israelis.

“We have been saying that we are willing to engage in peace talks and are ready to cooperate with Trump in his efforts to make a peace deal with the Israelis possible on the basis of the Arab Peace Initiative and the relevant international covenants,” Nabil Abu Rudeineh, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ spokesman, told Arab News on Sunday.

“We welcome this new development and we are optimistic about the upcoming visit of the US president to Palestine, where he is expected to visit Bethlehem and meet with President Abbas. We want to see our country established on our sovereign territories with East Jerusalem as our state’s capital,” Abu Rudeineh said.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, on the other hand, said in a statement that moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem would not harm the peace process, adding that he made his views in this regard clear during his previous meeting with the Trump administration.

Since taking office, Trump has backed away from his campaign pledge to move the embassy to Jerusalem, saying now that he is still studying the issue.

Tillerson linked Trump’s deliberations directly with his aspiration to broker peace in the Middle East.

He said Trump’s decision would be informed by feedback from all sides, including “whether Israel views it as helpful to a peace initiative or perhaps a distraction.”

As Trump prepares to depart Friday on his first foreign trip, his decision will be closely watched.

After stopping in Saudi Arabia, Trump will visit both Israel and the Palestinian territories, in a bid to strike the Israeli-Palestinian deal that has eluded his predecessors.

The status of Jerusalem is one of the most emotionally charged issues in the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis, with both sides laying claim to this city holy to all monotheistic religions.

Israel captured east Jerusalem — where Palestinians want to establish the capital of a future independent state — from Jordan in 1967 and annexed it, a move not internationally recognized.

In another sign that the White House is proceeding cautiously, David Friedman, Trump’s ambassador to Israel, plans to work out of the current embassy in Tel Aviv rather than out of the US Consulate in Jerusalem, as some had urged him to do.

Friedman, who owns an apartment in Jerusalem, is expected to live in the US ambassador’s official residence in the Tel Aviv suburb of Herziliya.

Palestinians argue that moving the embassy would prejudge one of the most sensitive issues in the conflict and undermine America’s status as an effective mediator.

There have been some signs that the Israeli government, while publicly supporting moving the embassy, has quietly raised concerns that doing so could enflame the political and security situation.

Trump Could Do More Damage By Staying In Paris Climate Deal – Analysis

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By Lou del Bello*

The United States could start the process of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change as early as this week. But some experts believe the alternative President Donald Trump is considering – simply downgrading the country’s climate targets – could ultimately prove even more damaging for the environment.

During his campaign, Trump said he planned to “cancel” the agreement, because it would cripple the domestic energy industry and kill thousands of jobs. But his administration is reportedly divided between the two options.

On 30 April, Trump told a rally in Pennsylvania that he would make a decision within two weeks.

“From an environmental perspective I’d feel more worried about a downward adjustment of the targets,” said Michael Traut, a senior researcher at the Tyndall Centre for climate change research in Manchester. “There is the risk of rendering the Paris Agreement almost meaningless.”

Traut and others said scaling back US targets to reduce emissions could set a precedent for other countries to do the same.

The agreement is currently little more than a blueprint designed to accommodate the different needs of the 192 states that have signed on, along with the 28 members of the European Union. While its flexibility was key to get on board a greater number of countries, it is also its main vulnerability.

A number of key points are still under discussion, from transparency to a comprehensive set of rules for the implementation of the pledges, known as Nationally Determined Contributions. This lack of detail leaves plenty of room for interpretation and could lead other nations to backtrack.

While a full US withdrawal would be expected to spark a severe diplomatic backlash around the world, and would likely lead to retaliatory measures such as tariffs on carbon, tweaking the pledges would be a way of undermining the process more subtly.

“It’s in this sense that staying in and misbehaving has the potential of being worse than a clean pullout,” said Gabriel Marty, a former negotiator for France’s presidency of the 21st Conference of Parties, which is the group of nations that hammered out the deal signed in Paris in 2015 under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

“I can speak from experience that the UNFCCC process is quite fragile, and the critical consensus built during COP21 will not resist long if the US wants to throw a wrench in the negotiations,” he said.

On Monday, a group of lobbyists released a letter urging Trump to take action against the agreement. They also suggested exploring an even more dramatic action – they want him to withdraw completely from the UNFCC. The “nuclear option”, as it has become known, may be less likely than withdrawing from the Paris Agreement or scaling back commitments, but it could happen.

Parsing the language

The worldwide debate about a country’s rights to modify its commitments under the Paris Agreement stems from Article 4.11, a short but pivotal paragraph that states: “A Party may at any time adjust its existing nationally determined contribution with a view to enhancing its level of ambition.” According to some legal experts in the US, this means that a country may choose to modify or even scale down its emission reduction targets without breaching the agreement’s principles.

However, watering down ambitions would also set a dangerous precedent. The sum of the current global pledges goes nowhere near keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius by 2020, so the agreement’s architects enshrined a so-called “ratchet mechanism” in the text. This clause underpins a stock-taking system meant to monitor progress and encourage countries to increase their commitment every five years.

“If the US stays in but successfully challenges the ‘no backsliding’ provision, it could make it very difficult for the stocktaking process to work efficiently,” said Marty.

Saleemul Huq, a senior fellow with the climate change group of the International Institute for Environment and Development in London, echoed Marty’s views: “I welcome the US leaving us. It will give us impetus. The very fact that [Trump] is questioning climate change has unleashed an enormous amount of energy from governors of states, to mayors, to scientists.”<

Huq told IRIN that should Trump’s administration decide to stay in the agreement, the US could “cause us more problems in the long run”.

“Let them leave us and go in the opposite direction and let us move forward together,” he said.

Having been involved in the negotiation process for decades, the Bangladeshi scientist is now convinced that the winds of climate action have changed, and the real impact is happening at a regional and city level. Clean energy is taking off in an increasing number of US states, while countries such as China and India are investing heavily in solar and wind capacity.

Huq said a US withdrawal would be preferable, because it would create a leadership gap that others could fill, while Trump “can only hinder progress at a federal level, which actually in the US context is very limited”.

Domino effect

Still others worry about the impact of a full US withdrawal.

While climate action is spreading and the business opportunities of a low carbon economy are attracting a growing number of investors, the Paris Agreement remains a crucial tool to plan for the long term. It provides stability and a framework for countries to work together.

“How would other countries respond to a US pullout? That’s a very open question,” acknowledged Michael Burger, executive director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University. “It could trigger a dreadful domino effect.”

Using Article 4.11 to relax the targets could have dangerous ramifications too, he said: “Would that lead to allowing other countries to ratchet down their own ambitions? Absolutely. It absolutely provides cover, provides legal justification.”

The vast majority of developing countries are already struggling with their climate commitments. Many pledges are tied to foreign support, which could fall short if Trump follows up on his promise to slash the US aid budget. Governments in Africa and Asia that are still counting on coal-fired power plants to reduce energy poverty would likely welcome the opportunity to water down their pledges.

That – along with the US reneging on its commitments – could prove disastrous.

Climate Advisers, a consultancy group, estimates that Trump’s policies alone could pump more than half a gigaton of additional climate pollution into the atmosphere by 2025. The total amount of carbon that humankind can still release without warming the planet by more than two degrees Celsius is estimated to be around 2,900 gigatons of CO2 equivalent.

*Lou del Bello, Freelance journalist, and regular IRIN contributor

Malaysia Says Soccer Players Risk Poisoning If Match Played In North Korea

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Malaysia’s football association chief said Thursday he feared for the safety of the national team, suggesting players could be poisoned if the Malayan Tigers traveled to Pyongyang, where they are now officially scheduled to compete against North Korea next month.

The qualifying match on June 8 for the 2019 Asia Cup had originally been scheduled to be played in the North Korean capital on March 28. But, citing concerns about security, Malaysia’s football team announced in early March it was pulling out of the match amid a bilateral diplomatic row that followed the poisoning-assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s half-brother on Malaysian soil, according to local authorities.

Tunku Ismail Ibni Sultan Ibrahim, the Crown Prince of Johor and president of the Football Association of Malaysia (FAM), said Thursday in a statement posted on its website that he was “very concerned about the safety assurance regarding the accommodation provided and the food.”

“According to the information I have received we need to bring our own food due to the possibility of sabotage,” he added among a list of concerns about playing the match in Pyongyong.

Back on March 15 – at the height of the diplomatic row stemming from the assassination of Kim Jong Nam – the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) said the match would be played on June 8, but it was seeking a neutral venue away from Pyongyang, the original site.

The row saw Malaysia and North Korea expel their respective ambassadors and impose mutual exit bans on each other’s citizens, among other tense moments in a crisis that last six weeks.

It ended in late March when Malaysia agreed to exchange Kim’s body, along with two North Koreans suspected of playing a role in his murder in a chemical weapon attack at a Kuala Lumpur area airport, for nine Malaysians who were trapped in Pyongyang for weeks because of the exit ban. The two countries have since lifted reciprocal exit bans.

On Monday, the confederation, the governing body of 46-member football associations across Asia, announced that the match would be played in the North Korean capital on June 8 after all. The federation said it took the decision after receiving confirmation from FAM that “no government travel restrictions are in place.”

‘People’s safety first’

FAM officials voiced displeasure with the federation’s decision. Tunku Ismail said he would have preferred that the match “be played at a neutral venue for the sake of the players’ safety.”

He said he had spoken with coaches who have visited North Korea who told him of ongoing issues that could jeopardize the safety of national team members.

Tunku Ismail said he would find it difficult to allow players, coaches and officials to travel to North Korea, but was concerned that the team would forfeit the match and be eliminated from the Asia Cup tournament as well as “all future AFC matches.”

The Malaysian team would be forced to swallow an automatic 3-0 defeat to North Korea, as well as be hit with a fine of U.S. $50,000, if it decided to boycott the match, he said.

“Taking all this into consideration, and after weighing the pros and cons, as president of FAM, I am definitely not in favor of the team traveling to North Korea, but ultimately the final decision rests with our government and the sports ministry,” Tunku Ismail said.

“For me, the safety of the Malaysian people is of the utmost importance. We must always put the people’s safety first no matter the situation. This is what the Malaysian government and our football fans want above all else,” he added.

Malaysia’s youth and sports minister was non-committal in response to the concerns expressed by the FAM president.

“So far, the foreign ministry has not issued any travel advisory. With the latest statement by FAM’s president on the issue today, I had asked the foreign ministry to review the situation in North Korea and to inform me,” Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said.

Reported by BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated online news service.

It’s High Time Trump Made Friends With Russia – OpEd

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By Jonathan Power*

Does anyone, however well-informed, know what President Donald Trump thinks about President Vladimir Putin? I hazard a guess that he is still more pro than anti, only he doesn’t quite know where to begin.

It’s time overdue that they met and hammered out on the anvil what their mutual interests are.

Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama have left a legacy that makes it hard for Trump to manoeuvre. They have trampled not so much on Putin but on Russia’s core interests. When Putin’s predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, and later Putin himself were lobbying for what the last Soviet leader, Mikhael Gorbachev, had called a “common European house” they were taking heed of a Russian mood to drive through a new entente.

But there was no financial aid, as there was with Germany and Japan after World War 2. There was no move to envelop Russia into the EU’s family. With Nato the Russians were soon faced with expansion, taking in most of the Soviet Union’s former European allies.

The critical turning point was probably December 1, 1994 when the Russian, western-minded foreign minister, Andrei Kozyrev. travelled to Brussels to sign a Partnership for Peace agreement with NATO.

But when he was confronted with a NATO communique issued earlier that day proclaiming the policy of NATO expansion he had little choice but not too sign. How ham-fisted could NATO get? Yeltsin issued a protest, criticising attempts from “a single capital to decide the destinies of whole continents and the world community as a whole”. He warned that this was pushing Europe “into a cold peace”. It wasn’t Putin’s accession to power that was the turning point. It happened on Yeltsin’s watch, even though he was in many ways as pro-Western as they come.

When Putin did come to power, as the American Russian scholar Gordon Hahn has argued, “his rise and continuing hold on the Russian presidency is in significant part a function of continuing NATO expansion. Putin is not opposed to the West or democracy per se. If he were, then Russian would not have good relations with the non-NATO democracies such as India, South Korea and Japan.”

The US’s big mistake (the EU countries followed in its wake) was built on too much hubris, born out of the victory over communism. The US became the world’s only superpower and tends to regard every part of the planet as a region of vital US national security and interests. The US maintains an active military presence in 147 countries.

US policy has been counter-productive, driving Russia towards partnership with China. By taking the slow track on nuclear disarmament it has left Russia with an astonishing number of nuclear weapons, able to blow the West to smithereens. It has pushed Putin into steps to demonstrate that Russia remains a power not to be ignored. His policies over China, Ukraine, especially Crimea, and Syria are popular at home.

The West too often overlooks Russia’s geopolitical position, which gives it a competitive edge in Eurasia. Russia and its acolytes border every major global civilization: the Euro-Atlantic West, Confucian Asia, big parts of the Islamic world, Hindu South Asia and Buddhist southeast and south Asia. The resurgence of Orthodox Christianity underscores its direct historical links with the original Church of Constantine’s Rome, which gives Russia a sense of what the Americans call “manifest destiny”.

The West, too, overlooks, if one takes the arts as one of the major criteria of civilization, how Russia trumps the world in ballet, literature and classical music, as well as holding its own as one of the top three or four in film, opera, architecture and painting.

All this begs the question what should Trump do now? First, to do as Trump has so far done – to stop the demonization of Putin, prevalent in previous Administrations. Second, to hold regular well-prepared summits (as in the old days of the Soviet Union) in which the West shares it deepest concerns with Russia and is prepared to forge new economic and military ties, as it should have done the moment the Cold War ended.

The West should have no trouble in compromise as it will negotiate from a position of strength. NATO’s military capacity is 19 times that of Russia.

So what should be goal be? – an ending of the stalemate in Ukraine, which the West had a good part in creating, a stop to anymore NATO expansion, including withdrawing US troops from Poland and Romania, an intimate cooperation over Syria and nuclear proliferation, as in North Korea, a cessation of the attempt to play off China against the other and, above all, a sharp cut in nuclear weapons and ending America’s push towards first-strike capability.

Time is not being kind to Trump’s delays. He should get on with what he said during the election campaign.

*Note: For 17 years Jonathan Power was a foreign affairs columnist for the International Herald Tribune. He has forwarded this and his previous Viewpoints for publication in IDN-INPS. Copyright: Jonathan Power.

A Post-Nuclear Deal Iran Prepares For Elections – Analysis

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The Iranian political landscape is multilayered, with a juxtaposition of conservatives, moderates, liberals, the military, intelligence and others fighting to build influence zones within the polity.

By Kabir Taneja

Iran has kicked-off its month long election campaign with the announcement of the finalists approved by the supreme leader of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Khamenei, after a vetting process orchestrated by the Guardian Council which works under his ambit. Current president, Hasan Rouhani, will be joined by competitors Mostafa Aqa-Mirsalim, Mostafa Hashemi-Taba, Es’haq Jahangiri, Mohammed-Baqer Qalibaf and Seyyed Ebrahim Raeisi to lead Iran in an era of uncertainty, specifically with President Donald Trump at the helm in Washington DC.

The run-up to these elections have already been filled with drama, with former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, despite saying he is not running for the polls, surprising the Iranian electorate by submitting his candidacy during the final minutes of the application process. In total, more than 1,600 candidates applied to contest the elections, including 137 female candidates, none of whom made the final cut.

President Rouhani, under whose guidance Iran agreed to the critical nuclear agreement with Western nations (all United Nations Security Council members plus Germany), according to analysts, will have competition from quarters of Tehran politics that he is very familiar with. His competitors can be divided into two groups, the reformists and the conservatives. First Vice President Jahangiri and former minister of mines, Hashemi-Taba along with Rouhani are from the former grouping. The conservatives are represented by the Mayor of Tehran Ghalibaf, former minister of culture and Islamic guidance Mirsalim and the odd candidacy of Raeisi, who is the custodian of the holy shrine of the eighth Shiite imam, but more importantly, touted to be a potential replacement for the now ageing Ayatollah Khamenei himself.

Popular expectations are that Rouhani, Ghalibaf and Raeisi are to be the electoral leaders in a race that is going to reflect both the political and economic outcomes of the post-nuclear deal Iran. According to a recent poll conducted by Canada based consultancy IranPoll, the economy and jobs are the foremost areas of concern that the people of Iran want their leaders to address, the same issues that were flagged before the previous elections and the subsequent swearing in of Rouhani as president. According to the poll, 52% of the participants of the modest 1,005 Iranians who took part in the study said that the economic situation in the country under the leadership of Rouhani was getting worse, while 31% agreed that it had gotten better. On a narrower question, when asked whether the economic situation of ordinary people had improved due to the successful negotiation of the nuclear deal, 72% replied in a negative tone saying that it had not improved.

The nuclear deal’s effect on the elections may be a red herring. Similar to the situation prior to the election of Rouhani in 2013 that ousted Ahmadinejad, under whom Iran’s ties with the West hit a new low, joblessness amongst the youth and lack of economic upliftment became the key political issue in Iran. Years of Western sanctions had rendered the Iranian economy severely strained, which in return gained public support in the country for its governance to thaw relations with the West. This was used by the moderate and reformist political circles in Tehran against the conservatives who, throughout the negotiation process, criticised Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif for giving too many concessions to the West in return for Iran’s basic rights to develop civil nuclear energy resources. Even Ayatollah Khamenei often took to Twitter; the social media site banned for common Iranian citizens, to threaten the US even as Iranian delegations were in Vienna, Austria, negotiating the agreements.

The Iranian political landscape is multilayered, with a juxtaposition of conservatives, moderates, liberals, the military, intelligence and others fighting to build influence zones within the polity. The premiere example to illustrate this is decoding the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s Corps (IRGC), a highly trained military structure directly under the command of the Ayatollah, tasked with protecting the Islamic revolution itself from foreign interventions and internal dissent.

However, the IRGC is now also heavily involved in the Iranian economy and is known to have ownership of various companies and state enterprises in fields such as construction, telecom, mining and so on. In January this year, the Iranian government along with entities closed to the IRGC signed commercial deals with the Syrian government for assisting the Bashar al-Assad regime in the Syrian war. As much as the conservative or reformist power blocks, including former presidents, matter in the outcome of the elections, the extension of the military/intelligence apparatus into electoral posturing has perhaps grown in Iran over the past few years it was under Western sanctions.

This also gives Raeisi a good chance at the presidency. Despite popular understanding seems to point towards the re-election of Rouhani, the conservative lobby along with the intelligence sector, made few qualms about its reservations over the nuclear deal known. This in effect could give the likes of Raeisi a well-orchestrated and strong bogey against the reformists club that backs Rouhani, which now includes the likes of former president Mohammad Khatami, a pro-reforms leader himself who led the Iranian government from 1997 until 2005. Such an endorsement could be of pivotal importance, as Khatami, like many of his predecessors and successor Ahmadinejad, had a falling out with the Ayatollah in his post-president years and was banished from politics.

India, one of Iran’s largest buyers of oil across the Arabian Sea, has had a relationship with the country that has been both fruitful and fractured simultaneously. Oil and gas has featured as the top most priority of the Iranian economy, and by extension, critical to political stability of the country. India and Iran are home to civilisational ties spanning thousands of years, and despite the relationship being cordial and consequential; it has more than often found it hard to develop an all-encompassing working diplomatic understanding between the two. Despite India voting against Iran at the UN over the latter’s nuclear program in 2009, predominantly under US pressure, New Delhi pushed for Washington to give it concessions from international sanctions against Iran on order to continue buying oil from the country. Along with this trade, India also committed more than $1 billion in Iran’s Farzad B oil and gas field, which has been embroiled in traditional bureaucratic entanglements that have become definitive of the bilateral dynamics between the two countries.

Beyond oil and gas, the possibility of greater strategic engagement between the two countries relies on the Chabahar port project. During previous high-level ministerial visits by Iran to India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Tehran last year, the mirage of the Chabahar project’s strategic importance to India has been even more elevated despite the fact that the entire dance between the two countries to develop it has been an excruciating display of bureaucratic red tape. Attempts to push forward the development of Chabahar is today an excellent, systematic and step-by-step guide on how to fail at diplomacy where both parties stand to gain significantly on their respective interests, yet fail to establish the same. India’s interests span a far-searching policy attempt, with Iran also being crucial for stability in Afghanistan and providing access to Central Asia, while Iran is perhaps yet to recognise that most of its markets for hydrocarbons for the next three decades lie towards the East.

From an Indian perspective, re-election of Rouhani could perhaps see a continuation of the stalemate between the two countries over critical issues, which now includes a war of words over the Farzad B oil and gas field as well. However, it is in India’s interest that Tehran remains on a reformist path, and the Iranian economy continues its movement towards an open market attached to global trade. While it is true that the election of Donald Trump as president of America has thrown many uncertainties over investing in Iran, the fact that the nuclear agreement is a multi-dimension one involving five other powers could be seen as both a balm and safety net over fears of an American withdrawal from the agreement.

Canadian Forces Missed Targets In Iraq 17 Times

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Canadian air missions missed their targets 17 times in Iraq, according to the latest data released by the country’s Department of National Defense (DND).

A former Canadian commander told the journalist-led transparency project, AIRWARS, that there could have been civilian casualties in those off-target strikes.

CBC News obtained heavily redacted documents from one of the missions which said the weapon simply “malfunctioned” in that case, falling into an open field and going off.

That mission took place when Iraqi security forces were fighting Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) fighters outside Kirkuk, Iraq in November 2015.

All in all, 17 bombs out of the 606 dropped went off course during the 16-month Canadian air campaign in Iraq, including a small number in Syria.

According to the Canadian air force, there is “no information” about any killed or wounded civilians.

There were other blank spots too. For instance, DND didn’t give CBC News any timeline of the misfires and didn’t provide a reason.

“No weapons system, is 100 percent accurate. On rare occasions, weapons systems are affected by meteorological conditions or experience malfunctions,” Maj. Isabelle Bresse, a spokesperson for the overseas command, told the news outlet in an email.

The documents obtained by CBC, including briefing notes and media strategy lines, showed how the Defence Department tried to bury the episode in Kirkuk.

CBC also notes that although local Iraqi media reported on a separate airstrike the next day – which reportedly killed between five and 13 civilians – there is no indication whether a bomb “malfunction” played a role in the incident which saw an ISIS munitions factory and part of a nearby dairy destroyed.

“There was a weapon malfunction experienced by [redacted] that resulted in this weapon failing to hit the intended target,” said a November 20, 2015, report, obtained by CBC News, apparently referring to the first Kirkuk incident.

“After a close review of the imagery from [redacted] at this time, it unlikely that any [collateral damage] or injury to civilians occurred as a consequence of this weapons malfunction.”

A week later, another report indicated that no reason had been determined for the malfunction.

At the same time, the entry about the mission on the DND website was changing. The initial post said the fighter bomber “successfully struck three separate ISIS fighting positions” near Kirkuk and Mosul, while the revised version changed that to “two” raids near Mosul.

The issue of potential civilian casualties isn’t completely off the table, according to AIRWARS.

“As I understand it Canada’s position is not that it didn’t kill any civilians — only that it’s not aware of having killed any. A subtle, though, important distinction,” said Chris Woods, the director of UK-based Airwars.

His statement was backed by Brig.-Gen. Lise Bourgon, a 2015 Iraqi mission commander, who said, “For the six months that I was there, I can tell you that I saw no evidence that there were civilian casualties in a strike that [occurred] when I was there.”

She added, though, “Am I telling you that I can guarantee that there was not a civilian casualty? I’m not going to guarantee that.”

South Pars Gas Field: Achieving Balance In Gas Production – OpEd

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By Ali Asghar Zargar*

The South Pars Gas Field is a natural gas field located in the Persian Gulf. It is the world’s largest gas field, shared between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Qatar. The two countries’ common border, which was agreed upon in 1968, has divided the field between the two sides.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the field possesses an estimated 51 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and about 7.9 billion barrels of condensate. In comparison to other natural gas fields, it has more recoverable reserves than all other fields combined. This gas field covers an area of 9,700 square kilometers of which 3,700 square kilometers, which is known as the South Pars Gas Field, is located in Iran’s territorial waters, while 6,000 square kilometers, known as the North Dome, is situated in Qatar’s territorial waters.

The Iranian section of the field is considered the most significant source of energy for the country. The gas reserves of this huge field account for about 8 percent of the world’s total gas reserves. The Iranian section of the field accounts for almost half of the country’s domestic gas reserves.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani inaugurated eight development projects of South Pars Gas Field about three weeks ago. During his visit, Rouhani inaugurated 20-billion-dollar worth of projects concerning five phases of the field, including phases 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21. It should be noted that at the present time, Iran is scheduled to develop 28 blocks of the field, divided into 24 phases, to produce 790 million cubic meters of gas per day. South Pars Gas Field was originally developed for such purposes as meeting increasing domestic demand for natural gas, injecting gas into oil fields, exporting gas, and production of LNG and liquefied gas to feed the country’s petrochemical plants. Assaluyeh and Kangan, located respectively 270 km and 220 km southeast of Bushehr port city, have been selected as the coastal regions for the implementation of the aforesaid projects.

Inauguration of the aforementioned phases of the gas field, which are expected to become operational in the near future, will boost production from the Iranian side of the field and enable Iran to balance its gas output from the joint field with Qatar or even exceed Qatar’s production level. This will effectively put an end to two decades of production gap between Iran and Qatar. In fact, even now, Iran’s production from the field has reached 575 million cubic meters per day.

In the light of the above facts, the main questions are whether further development of the field will continue; whether Iran’s technical and technological capabilities would be able to support future development of the field in cooperation with foreign firms in the form of joint ventures; and finally, in case of further development, how Qatar would react to Iran’s increased production from the field?

Iran has proved that it possesses relatively adequate technological and technical capabilities – if needed through procurement of required equipment and materials from abroad – to develop different phases of the gas field, though with some delay. Petro Pars Company, a general contractor affiliated to the National Iranian Oil Company, is an Iranian company in charge of developing certain phases of the field. It has so far developed 11 blocks out of 28 blocks of the field through five projects. Another Iranian contractor, Khatam-al Anbiya Construction Headquarters, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), also enjoys enough capabilities and experience to work independently or in cooperation with other companies to develop the field in Assaluyeh and Kangan regions, which are coastal regions chosen for establishment of onshore facilities related to the aforesaid projects.

With regard to foreign investment in the field, it must be noted that following conclusion of Iran’s nuclear deal with six world powers, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), foreign companies have offered a number of investment proposals. In November 2016, France’s Total signed a preliminary accord worth an estimated 4.5 billion euros to help with development of a South Pars phase on a 50% basis. The company, however, noted that it would wait for signals from Washington before finalizing the deal.

Of course, further development of the field may be hampered by prolongation of low gas prices, which are expected to continue into the near future and have had varied impacts on both countries. Low gas prices may prompt both countries to develop value-added industries, which are based on natural gas, and export gas to neighboring countries through pipeline. Qatar may also find its huge investment in liquefied natural gas (LNG) much less profitable than the past and, similar to Iran, may have to turn to exporting gas to neighboring countries through pipeline while boosting production of value-added products from natural gas.

If Iran is to expand investment in South Pars Gas Field, it must pay attention to Qatar’s experience in this regard as well as challenges it may face for boosting LNG production before pursuing a similar path. LNG production requires large investment and access to advanced technology, which is only available from a limited number of Western and American companies, and Iran has yet to get access to that technology.

Another issue, which may be the most important issue with respect to exploitation of this joint gas field, is the need for Iran to have good neighborly relations with the member states of the [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council. Stability of the region and the gas field is in the best interest of all regional countries and the rest of the world. Therefore, they must encourage both Iran and Qatar to have cordial relations and manage the field in a responsible manner. As such, continued military buildup in the region and adopting a hardline security-focused approach could trigger conflict, which would not be in the interest of either party.

* Ali Asghar Zargar, Energy Expert


Ron Paul: President Trump Toss Your Generals’ War Escalation Plans In Trash – OpEd

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By the end of this month, Defense Secretary James Mattis and National Security Advisor HR McMaster will deliver to President Trump their plans for military escalations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. President Trump would be wise to rip the plans up and send his national security team back to the drawing board – or replace them. There is no way another “surge” in Afghanistan and Iraq (plus a new one in Syria) puts America first. There is no way doing the same thing over again will succeed any better than it did the last time.

Near the tenth anniversary of the US war on Afghanistan – seven years ago – I went to the Floor of Congress to point out that the war makes no sense. The original authorization had little to do with eliminating the Taliban. It was a resolution to retaliate against those who attacked the United States on September 11, 2001. From what we know now, the government of Saudi Arabia had far more to do with the financing and planning of 9/11 than did the Taliban. But we’re still pumping money into that lost cause. We are still killing Afghanis and in so doing creating the next generation of terrorists.

The war against ISIS will not end with its defeat in Mosul and Raqqa. We will not pack up and go home. Instead, the Pentagon and State Department have both said that US troops would remain in Iraq after ISIS is defeated. The continued presence of US troops in Iraq will provide all the recruiting needed for more ISIS or ISIS-like resistance groups to arise, which will in turn lead to a permanent US occupation of Iraq. The US “experts” have completely misdiagnosed the problem so it no surprise that their solutions will not work. They have claimed that al-Qaeda and ISIS arose in Iraq because we left, when actually they arose because we invaded in the first place.

General David Petraeus is said to have a lot of influence over HR McMaster, and in Syria he is pushing for the kind of US troop “surge” that he still believes was successful in Iraq. The two are said to favor thousands of US troops to fight ISIS in eastern Syria instead of relying on the US-sponsored and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to do the job. This “surge” into Syria would also lead to a lengthy US occupation of a large part of that country, as it is unlikely that the US would return the territory to the Syrian government. Would it remain an outpost of armed rebels that could be unleashed on Assad at the US President’s will? It’s hard to know from week to week whether “regime change” in Syria is a US priority or not. But we do know that a long-term US occupation of half of Syria would be illegal, dangerous, and enormously expensive.

President Trump’s Generals all seem to be pushing for a major US military escalation in the Middle East and south Asia. The President goes back and forth, one minute saying “we’re not going into Syria,” while the next seeming to favor another surge. He has given the military much decision-making latitude and may be persuaded by his Generals that the only solution is to go in big. If he follows such advice, it is likely his presidency itself will be buried in that graveyard of empires.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

Robert Reich: The End Of Trump – OpEd

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The question is no longer whether there are grounds to impeach Donald Trump. It is when enough Republicans will put their loyalty to America ahead of their loyalty to their party.

Trump’s statements last week about his firing of former FBI director James Comey provide ample evidence that Trump engaged in an obstruction of justice – a major charge in impeachment proceedings brought against Richard M. Nixon and Bill Clinton.

It’s worth recalling that the illegality underlying Nixon’s impeachment was a burglary at the Watergate complex, while the illegality underlying Clinton’s was lying to a grand jury about sex with an intern in the White House.

Trump’s obstruction is potentially far more serious. It involves an investigation about whether Trump or his aides colluded with Russia in rigging a presidential election – the most direct assault on American democracy in history,

Last Thursday, in an interview with NBC News’s Lester Holt about his firing of Comey, Trump said: “I was going to fire regardless of recommendation.” Trump also said that he had pressed Comey during a private dinner to tell him if he was under investigation.

Trump conceded that the ongoing investigation into Russian influence on the 2016 election, which includes a probe into the possibility that Moscow was coordinating with the Trump campaign, was one of the factors Trump considered before firing Comey.

“In fact, when I decided to just do it, I said to myself, I said, ‘You know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made-up story, it’s an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election that they should have won,’ ” Trump said.

The law is reasonably clear. If Trump removed Comey to avoid being investigated, that’s an obstruction of justice – an impeachable offense.

On Friday, Trump tweeted that Comey “better hope that there are no ‘tapes’ of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!”

Here, the law is also clear. Seeking to silence, intimidate or even influence someone who is likely to offer evidence in a congressional or criminal proceeding is also an obstruction of justice – and an impeachable offense.

As a practical matter, though, nothing will happen until a majority of the House decides on bringing a bill of impeachment. Which means, under the present congress, twenty-two Republicans would have to join with House Democrats to put enough pressure on the Speaker of the House to allow such a bill to be considered.

The odds of this occurring in this Congress, under present circumstances, are approximately zero.

So – barring a “smoking gun” that shows Trump’s complicity with Russian operatives in interfering in the 2016 election – Trump’s fate seems to hinge on the midterm elections of 2018.

Those elections are less than eighteen months away. That’s a long time in American politics. Under a Trump presidency, that’s an eternity.

But there’s another possibility.

In my experience, most elected politicians have two goals – to do what they consider to be the right things for the American public, and to be reelected (not necessarily in that order).

If Trump’s poll numbers continue to plummet – particularly among Republicans and Independents – twenty-two House Republicans may well decide their chances for being reelected are better if they abandon him before the 2018 midterms.

Paul Ryan and the House Republican leadership might make a similar calculation, at least enough to put a bill of impeachment on the table.

Most House Republicans prefer Vice President Mike Pence to Donald Trump anyway. As one said to me several months ago, “Pence is a predictable conservative. Trump is an unpredictable egomaniac. Most of us are more comfortable with the former.”

There’s a good chance Trump’s polls will continue to fall. First, he’s shown to be his own worst enemy. Even when things are going reasonably well, he seems bizarrely intent on stirring controversy – and saying or tweeting things that get him into trouble.

There’s also a matter of the economy. The expansion that began in 2009 is getting long in the tooth. If history is any guide, we’re due for a slowdown or recession. And justified or not, presidents get blamed when Americans lose jobs.

Donald Trump doesn’t have the character or the temperament to be president of the United States. But this obvious fact isn’t enough to get him fired.

He’ll be fired when enough Americans decide they can’t abide him anymore.

Then, maybe in an impeachment proceeding, it will come out that Trump did something incredibly stupid – like give a nod of approval to one of his campaign bottom feeders like Roger Stone to tell a Russian operative to go ahead with their plan to interfere in the 2016 election.

The House impeaches. The Senate convicts. That’s the end of Trump.

Historical Analogies And Western Policymaking Concerning Baltic Region – Analysis

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By Lukas Milevski*

(FPRI) — Western policymakers charged with making decisions related to the security and defense of the Baltic states face intractable questions pertaining to uncertainty about Russian interests, intentions, and the future. To address these issues, policymakers should employ the invaluable tool of history: its relevance is always indirect and its utility is often rendered through analogy. Yet, Western policymakers will be more familiar with some histories over others and will likely draw upon the history of the West and Western-centric analogies, which are not necessarily the most relevant for, or compatible with, the context and requirements of Baltic defense. Rather, these decision makers should use or study Baltic strategic history.

Neither the Baltic states nor Russia necessarily shares the historical episodes reflected in the West’s preferred analogies, or if they do, they typically derive conclusions which are greatly at variance with those drawn by the West. Western policymakers focus on relatively narrow, often extreme historical episodes, such an emphasis on Hitler and Nazi Germany to characterize Russia’s actions in Crimea in February and March 2014. Yet, it is difficult for many to accept that Vladimir Putin might be analogous to Hitler or that Hitler was anything other than an aberration in modern history.

Comparisons to Hitler have become so commonplace and, by extension, so non-serious that the comparison itself has become a well known internet meme called Godwin’s Law, which states that during any extended discussion, the chances of one party invoking Hitler or the Nazis approaches 100%. This particular comparison does little for the credibility of the analogy and renders it inherently suspect for an increasingly large portion of any Western democratic public.

The frequent invocation of this analogy with regard to Putin and a reluctance to countenance it pose the larger danger of minimizing consideration of Russian pursuit of an aggressive and even expansionist foreign policy. Further, whereas the West analogizes Hitler on the basis of his insatiable territorial appetite and appeasement at the Munich Conference of 1938, the Russians draw different conclusions—that appeasement was the West enabling Hitler’s ambitions, up until he turned on them. The history with which Western policymakers are familiar tends to be inapt for considering either the Baltic states or Russia.

The Baltic States and Russia: A Shared History

The shared history of the Baltic states and Russia is relevant for the contemporary topic of Baltic defense. While the physical geography remains essentially the same, the political geography differs. The historical and modern cultures involved are more similar to each other than to those of the West’s standard suite of analogies. Accepting this premise, the question becomes: which issue should be analogized? The most fundamental question to the topic of Baltic defense concerns Russian interest in the Baltic—what are Russian interests and how do they manifest in Russian policy? What might be gleaned from Baltic-Russian history? Given the focus of the question, Russia is necessarily the subject, and the Baltic states are the object.

Russia has shown sustained interest in the Baltic over the course of a millennium. A topical listing in brief equals a whirlwind tour through the history of northern Europe. The early Rus’ princelings, prone to squabbling among themselves, were interested in the Baltic tribes for one thing only—tribute, not formal dominion. This situation only changed starting in 1200 when the German crusaders began carving out their own niche, Livonia, German dominion pushed out informal Russian influence, and the Baltic was irrevocably stamped as culturally western in its physical environment and worldview. Two to three hundred years later, once the power of the Mongol Golden Horde receded, Muscovy emerged as the leading Russian state and developed a largely economic interest in Livonia, home of Hanseatic cities such as Riga and Reval (Tallinn) which were important to Baltic commerce. Seeking tribute and suzerainty, Muscovy invaded in 1501, but Livonia parried the blow.

Fifty years later, Muscovy returned with a vengeance, coincidentally with other interested neighboring great powers such as Denmark, Sweden, and Poland-Lithuania, which were either similarly interested in the eastern Baltic littoral or feared Russia’s presence there. This sparked a century and a half of warfare which only ended with the Treaty of Nystad in 1721.

During this period of near constant war, Muscovy transformed into Russia but retained its old commercial interests—the region was vital to Peter the Great’s vision of opening a window to the West. Yet, Russian interest gained additional dimensions, including simple imperialism. By 1795, Russia dominated where larger and smaller powers had once existed: Livonia followed by the Duchy of Courland, a partitioned Poland-Lithuania, and a vanquished Sweden. Russia had gained its window to the West, and the ports of the Baltic provinces found their places among the leading ports of its empire.

Eastern Europa after the Soviet-German Pact. Source: Spiridon Ion Cepleanu, Wikimedia Commons
Eastern Europa after the Soviet-German Pact. Source: Spiridon Ion Cepleanu, Wikimedia Commons

In 1918-19, when World War I raged, empires disintegrated, and revolutions took hold, the three Baltic republics formally declared and successfully fought for their independence against all comers—both White and Red Russians, and the Germans as well. The nascent Soviet Union professed disinterest in the Baltic republics and recognized their sovereignty in perpetuity. Russian commercial interest had disappeared for the Soviet Union evinced no desire to trade with the West. Yet, defense replaced commerce as the overriding Russian interest. During the interwar period, the Soviets were concerned with the danger of a German invasion through the Baltic states, which was remedied by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact’s secret protocol and by invading and annexing the three countries in 1939-40. The security importance of the newly conquered Baltic Soviet Socialist Republics only grew for what was the Soviet Union’s direct maritime frontier with the West. Heavily garrisoned, the Baltic provided much needed depth in the north.

This strategic depth vanished in 1991 once the Baltic states declared the continuation of their independence and the Soviet Union subsequently collapsed. However, already in the early 1990s, Russia was demonstrating a keen interest in the Russian-speakers there, especially in Latvia and Estonia, whose in-migration and subtle political instrumentalization Russia had itself orchestrated. Russia’s interest was sufficiently strong that it resulted in the threat of a continued Russian occupation—as at that point the Red Army had not yet withdrawn from the Baltic states—and the Russian Army was openly discussing and practicing invasion scenarios. No such thing occurred in the end, and possibly for the first time since before the German crusade, Russian interest did not manifest itself in actual use of military power.

Russia and the Baltics Today

What interest might the Russian Federation have in the Baltic states today? Commerce and economics for gain are unlikely to be resurrected; Russia under Putin has consistently sought to use trade punitively, minimizing and bypassing the Baltic states with regard to energy transport, foodstuff imports, etc.

NATOSimple imperialism—seizing more territory, more resources, and more population in geopolitically advantageous regions—is a possible motive, with arguments both for and against. An increasing share of non-Russian inhabitants combined with the catastrophic collapse of ethnic Russian demographics may lead to a decreased political desirability of incorporating even more non-Russian territories, given the perceived relative importance of an ethnic Russian majority for Russian state stability. On the other hand, the Baltics as old imperial territories and the possibility of a potential easy victory over NATO to unravel the European security order may increase the political allure of restoring Russian imperialism to the region.

Genuine or politically advantageous concern for ethnic Russians has motivated Russian foreign policy toward the Baltic states since the early 1990s, and Russian compatriots abroad remain a staple in official Russian foreign policy discourse today. Except for the very first incident in the early 1990s, however, this has not manifested as threats of military force in the Baltic—unlike Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014.

Security remains the most likely Russian interest in the Baltic states. Russia’s western border is the furthest east it has been in 300 years, a change which occurred less than thirty years ago. Russia’s current ruling elite matured at a time when the eastern Baltic littoral was Russian-dominated territory, vital strategic depth for the Soviet Union. This geopolitical and geostrategic fact was part of their formative context, a defensive position since vanished, for which they may still yearn as a vital tenet of defense. The Russians have certainly made no secret of their position that the stationing of NATO forces—no matter how small—in the Baltic region is an affront to their own national security.

How might Russia’s present interests in the Baltic states manifest themselves in Russian policy? Traditionally, Russia has used force during times when it has not controlled the Baltic states. Whether it will do so again may depend on how the geostrategic situation today and tomorrow differs from those of the past—from Russia’s perspective. Except for the example of the German crusades, the eastern Baltic littoral always represented a relative power vacuum into which Russia advanced. Ensuring Russian quiescence in the Baltic may require demonstrating that the Baltic states are not a power vacuum on the outer edges of the Western political and security order.

About the author:
*Lukas Milevski is a Baltic Sea Fellow in the Eurasia Program

Source:
This article was published by FPRI

Albanian Federation Versus New Yugoslavia – Analysis

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The Serbian Project for a New Yugoslavia, and Albania, must receive the response of Albanian political doctrine that should be understood as a defensive trench towards defending national interests, argues Dr. Sadri Ramabaja.

On every network of crises in the European Continent and beyond, Southern Slavs, especially the Serbs, although they may have partially carried the blame of starting a war (as it was the case in World War I or in the recent conflicts that turned Yugoslavia into a closed chapter of the World’s history), they have proved to be among the main beneficiaries of these bloody conflicts.

Slovenia and Croatia have currently emerged as the most beneficiaries from the Former Yugoslav republics, during the disintegration process of Yugoslavia. Under the Yugoslav Federation, these two recently independent countries played a key role during the Cold War, however with the idea for a New Yugoslavia, including the Albanian question, Belgrade aspires to secure its lion’s share.

Ideas for a Balkanic Federation have appeared together with communism in the previous century “that originated from the Cold Weather” (Jean Paul Sartre), more specifically with Leninism in the beginning of the XX century. Meanwhile the idea for a Balkanic Federation appeared time after time under the denomination of a Greater Bulgaria or a Greater Serbia and always without including Albanians.

However, the current initiative led by Johannes Hahn, European Commissioner in charge of Neighbourhood Policy & Enlargement Negotiations, with the aim of creating a common Balkanic market, based on the EU example, had its inception in the Paris Initiative. Parties through this agenda expressed their willingness to cooperate closely, without ignoring the creation of a new federation or a Balkanic conferederation named as New Yugoslavia, which embodies pure geopolitical ambitions.

Such an aspiration is dangerous, bizare, and in its core, is an idea that has failed throughout history, as a result it seems to be a New Yugoslavia, without Slovenia and Croatia, a creation that was an offensive led by Serbian Fascism.

In one of my papers published two years ago (February 2015) I made a reference to the weight of geopolitical changes and their consequences to South East Europe. In this era of constant significant changes, I stated then, especially now when East and South East Europe are the ground of clashes between western concepts on modern statecraft and those of eastern governance that consists on a limited sovereignty (the theory of Brezhniev embraced today by President Vladimir Putin). As a result, the theory over a nation-state appears again in the platform as a structure that guarantees pertinent relations between the state and its citizens, as a result it affects freedom, peace and security.

There are many reasons, as a result such an observation that only in a nation state democracy is able to flourish in its ample meaning, it finds a breeding ground for its own genuine strengthening, at a present time when political mafia and criminal gangs have suffocated and engulfed the government of Kosovo at its worst conditions, after a biblical migration of its citizens, an act that nullifies the legitimacy of Pristina’s current government, it even takes a greater and a more specific weight. In this current context, we may conclude that two long years are lost.

The Return of Geopolitics and Reconfigurations Inspired by Hegemony

The new wave of demonstrations that have surged from disappointed citizens, are returning in the region. In this thunderstorm created by a return of original geopolitics, open tendencies on the reconfiguration of Serbia as a hegemonic force in the region, were reflected within the failed coup that took place during the recent elections process in Montenegro.

The reaches of these tentacles are clearly seen in Macedonia and in Republika Srpska (Bosnia and Herzegovina), in the case of the latter, such aspirations are even more visible.

What was happening at the brink of elections’ date in Serbia, gave you the impression of the Yalta conference results, that revived our memories of modern South Eastern European history, with the blessing of a few political centers with a special influence in the EU!

The meetings of Vučić in Berlin and Moscow, and his special gratitude addressed to President Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, only a day after the elections’ results, as if he knew the outcome of these elections, is another testimony of his close association with the two European Giants.

On March 27, the Prime Minister of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, a presidential candidate in the recent elections, had visited Moscow and conducted a long meeting with President Putin. On April 2, he was elected as Serbia’s new President. On April 6, he shared with the public his project for a New Yugoslavia, including Albanian territories.

It is sufficient to study such a political agenda of Vučić, to reach clear conclusions on the direction that is taken by regional geopolitics. Agreements for the Balkans and Serbia’s role in the new Geopolitics, is already an open secret, they are implemented with the consent of “the big brother.”

The opening of the Balkan’s gates towards Russia, and the agreement among several decision-making centers in Europe, connected with fierce reactions towards the creation of Kosovo’s Army, a shift from the Security Force of Kosovo, ought to be looked upon these secret agreements. Moreover, the recent actions of President Hashim Thaçi are a Déjà-vu of its own style.

Europe’s bet and Sen. John McCain III visit to the region

Senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and Amy Klobuchar visiting President Raimonds Vējonis of Latvia (Source: Office of the President of Latvia)
Senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and Amy Klobuchar visiting President Raimonds Vējonis of Latvia (Source: Office of the President of Latvia)

According to former Albanian Ambassador Shaban Murati, “under the unmotivated will of Serbia going towards the European Union and not towards Russia, some government leaders from EU member countries have placed their bet on President Vučić and they estimate that under his leadership Serbia must have a leadership role or play a key role in Western Balkans.”

In such a turmoil of polital events, on April 10, John McCcain, one of the most influential US Senators arrived in Belgrade, meanwhile on April 13 he held a speech in the National Assembly of Kosovo and had a series of meetings with the leadership of Pristina. Serbian main stream media made it clear that the main topics of discussions between Sen. McCain and Mr. Vučić, and their source of disagreement, was the foreign policy orientation of Serbia and its posture towards Kosovo.

It appears that the European bet on the US Senator was not as trustworthy as expected. Such a visit took place at a time when protests against Belgrade’s dictatorship, promoted by President-elect Vučić and his reactionary allies, were going on for weeks. The symptoms of a political awakening, respectively the events of a Velvet Revolution, almost similar to Ukraine, are venerated.

More specifically to avoid the attention of western diplomacy from these inner sublayers, the ideological apprentice of Slobodan Milošević, the one who is behaving as a J. B. Tito junior, is aiming to reestablish the old Yugoslavia, while this time including Albania, with aims to even surpass Tito’s model.

Such an attempt was made public on April 6th, in his first interview given to Politico, as Serbia’s President Elect. While at first site, it appears that it is nothing new, since similar ideas have been articulated on this part of the continent since the beginning of XX century, initially with progressive premises of national and social equality, and later they were always tailored to serve the Serbian hegemonic aspirations.

The idea of a Balkan Federation came all together with a slavic communism that “emerged from the Cold Weather” (Jean Paul Sartre). After the Second World War reappeared again as a greater Bulgaria and at times as a greater Serbia. At other times, it emerged as an idea that would include in it all orthodox communites of the Balkans in the concept of greater Bulgaria or greater Serbia. At a time when Bulgaria was ruled by Georgi Dimitrov, a communist leader, who included also Albanian issue on his plans.

Such an idea was avoided only with the break up of Yugoslavia from Stalin’s circle of influence and its descent towards western influences. But, the current initiative supported publicly by the EU commissioner Johannes Hahn and other EU leaders under a total secrecy, with the idea that the region must evolve into a common Balkanic market, to sort of imitate the EU example, regardless of the fact that the Balkan integration idea is fully based on the communist concepts for a Balkan Federation that had three options.

  1. Greater Yugoslavia, the former Yugoslavia Republics respectively plus Albania;
  2. Balkan Federation – Greater Yugoslavia with Bulgaria;
  3. Expanded Balkan Federation – a Federation with Romania and Greece, and even a few versions of it that include Turkey, is acquiring support all the way to Brussels! Such circumstances are making it even more dangerous, not to say that they are shaped by a Byzantine mindset.

While being very naive and politically irrational, Serbian Prime Minister expressed these ideas in the US Newspaper (Politico), with exact terms as it really is, a New Yugoslavia, a restructured concept, without Slovenia and Croatia, but with the two Albanian Independent Republics, Albania and Kosovo that will replace the two Yugoslav original republics (Slovenia and Croatia), while making the two Albanian countries become vassals within a Serbian Hegemony.

From the Strategy of Brussels towards Albania, and especially after the War of Kosovo Liberation Army to secure the territorial liberation and independence of Kosovo, there can be identified two venues of European political action, that are erupting as a result of a domestic crisis within EU Institutions and from a clear absence of a political perspective within Brussels and European Commission: the first line is a project that would move with two speeds, while creating the European Core (Germany, France), that would be highly rigid, and would aim to consider its periphery as an addendum or a security belt and; the Second Europe, as an upcoming Federation of equal nations regardless of their population number, a product that derives from a liberal concept and a breath of liberal democracy that has proved to be very positive and been cultivated by Modern Europe.

The first scenario of Europe has a need for real alibis that would archive ongoing membership aspirations of South East European Nations into the books of ancient history. An example of this attitude is the atypical attitude of Brussels placed against the EU visa liberalization process of Kosovo that depends and consists in the solution of border demarcation line between Montenegro and Kosovo, and the latter continue to be held hostage as a result of these policies; indeed there is no other explanation.

There are voices articulating that this kind of Europe is tied with the boundaries that separate civilizations (according to the theory of Samuel P. Huntington on the Clash of Civilizations) East – West. Eurocentrists, as supporters of the first version of Europe, are consequently receiving a growing support from powerful waves of popularity, but also from Russian Federation that is significantly different from the XX Century, but doesn’t hide its aspirations to be installed in the Balkans through its injected influence in Macedonia and Serbia.

About this issue, we ought to review the project of New Yugoslavia plus Albania, it is an awakening of unique associations, considered as such especially among those who are experts of the political history of South East Europe.

Such a project would seriously ruin the Balkans and especially the future of Albanian nation, as it will aim to establish unnatural alliances, connected to Turkey and directed towards Asia! While situated under the pressures of such a crystal clear aim, a new geopolitical realignment, Albanians on both nations, known to be leaning towards the West, will never give up from their centuries old westward leaning civilization aspirations, they will not give up only because of the Eurocentrists’ typical frustration, wrapped by racism, that are viewing South East Europe from several vilified angles as being part of the ancient Ottoman Empire.

On the contrary, these two nations, Albanians, will continue to insist to be part of a political project focused on Eurointegration – EU – and naturally become a memer of Euroatlantic Family. Moreover, if the project of New Yugoslavia is successful, Albanian nation will be stuck at the cross roads of this nature, a scenario that would make them similar to the Jewish model in the Middle East, making the two Albanian countries as the equivalent of Israel in South East Europe.

New Yugoslavia – a miniature empire of Tito

At the end of World War II Yugoslavia was serving for Tito as the core of a union between Trieste, Istria, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania and Greece. This was the reason why Tito was supporting the Greek Partisans in its Civil War. For as long as Stalin was satisfied with the fact that his influence was stretched throughout South East Europe. J. B. Tito was not satisfied with this accomplishment. He was laying the grounds of a Balkanic Federation, that would be as big as Great Britain and France altogether. [1]

But this Project would experience its first cracks from the place where it was even less expected. Specifically, from Moscow after the approval of the Resolution of Inform Bureau, in 1948, when Tito was expelled from the rest of Eastern Block.
Joseph Stalin had its legitimate doubts on Tito, while establishing the political seat of Balkanic Federation in Belgrade, Tito would impose a full hegemony to the other half of the Balkans. Stalin was afraid that Tito would exert his complete influence not only in Albania and Greece but also in Bulgaria, while creating this way a powerful communist block in South East Europe, away from Moscow’s close control. [2]

The dreams of slavic nationalists for an all slavic union “from Trieste to Varna” was appearing to be fading away from its implementation. However, Stalin was aspiring to have only Satellite States in Eastern Europe, and not a second communist center in Europe, as it begun to take shape under the guidance of Tito and Dimitrov. [3] The greatest schism within the Communist World was taking shape. Yugoslavia was gradually leaving the Soviet sphere of influence. At that time, it was unclear on what were the motives of such a schism that was taking place. Rumors had it that there was a clash between the “Great Russian Imperialism” and the “Yugoslav nationalism.” [4] It appears that among these two concepts that are shaped by modern geopolitics, Brussels has chosen a concept that keeps Russia away from the Balkans, even by paying the price of promoting Serbian Hegemony in such a New Yugoslavia.

It appears that some European officials that are supporting this project, have learned little from the political history of Europe. How integration and disintegration has worked within Slavic nations of South East Europe during the XIX and XX Centuries; it is simply a matter that is directly connected to the lack of tolerance. [5] The dissolution process of Tito’s Yugloslavia and the Serbian Genocides in Bosnia (1991-1995) and in Kosovo (1995-1999) are a perfect testimony of such a brutal attitude.

Albanian political doctrine as a defense shield

Tirana and Prishtina, should respond, in a coordinated fashion and unequivocally to the geostrategic regional projects of Belgrade that are sponsored by Russia and even France; where the terminology of Western Balkans took its inception in 2000. Tirana and Pristina must embrace proactive actions to swiftly shape reforms that benefit both independent countries that are fully inhabited by ethnic Albanians.

Some of the steps that must be taken right away are the following:

  1. Elimination of customs, the creation of a common Albanian market;
  2. Full integration of education and health policies;
  3. Begin the use of Albanian currency (Lek), as a second currency in Kosovo;
  4. Draft a common and mutual defense strategy.

However, while containing new measures, and in full coordination among Tirana and Pristina, the Albanian Political Parties in Macedonia must also get appropriately involved.

These are some of the urgent steps, that would naturally shape the Albanian Federation. For those familiar with Albanian Political environment, demands of this nature appear to be simply a futuristic political move, overall idealistic.

Obviously for a reason, especially knowing the quality of a political network that is dominating Albania’s and Kosovo’s governing landscape. Nonetheless, the positive pressure of intellectual opinion and a stimulus coming from healthy political factors, would generate a series of proactive energies for this aspiration to be on the launching pad.

For as long as in Northern Albania (the territory above Drini River) the Secret Services of Serbia and Russia, while coordinated with their regional traditional allies, were successful to install their trusted puppets at the helm of Kosovo’s Government, meanwhile they were somewhat successful to hold hostage General Ramush Haradinaj in France, and also continue to orchestrate all sorts of disinformation campaigns against the Self Movement Party (Levizja VeteVendosja), a political force that is rightfully viewed as the sole hope in Prishtina, without leaving aside the subversive and the anti-constitutional actions against the sovereignty of Kosovo, in other parts of Albania, there are plans to organize a coup d’etat or return back to the dark days of 1997.

The ties of foreign secret service agencies, through a resistance of corrupt politicians and with the support of regional mafia, are fighting to hinder from implementation a strategic project destined to strengthen the rule of law and the state of law, that would go through the rubicon of the so-called Vetting, and as a result Albania would have a true governing set of institutions. If there is a crowd of people gathered on any of Tirana’s blocks, at a tent or outside of a tent, it is gathering without principles, however, it is a legitimate right and moral obligation towards the fatherland, to mobilize even the so-called idealists wherever they are.

Idealists that continue to be worried in their own right, are convinced that Albanian political environment needs the development of a new way of thinking, respectively for a political doctrine as a source of defensive and containment shield, to enable the knowledge of global political tendencies, while retaining these tactics to the benefit of national interest.

If Anglo-Saxons after WWII were focused to shape such a method of political thinking, while taking into consideration aspects and geostrategic interests, meanwhile the French aside from their focus towards ascertaining their space of influence, have cultivated, through social and political sciences, philosophical and ideological components, Albanians in order to shape up their Albanian Federation project and expand their influence in the region, need an approach that combines the two ways of thought mentioned above, while adding to this the military concept of reasoning. Such a concept of Albanian Federation would bring more weight and raise its leverage as presented in the eyes of Albania’s geostrategic allies, especially the United States.

In this case, instead of sending refugees and citizens who migrate for economic reasons to Albania’s geopolitical alliance (NATO) and Western European nations, because the current Government of Tirana has failed to bring a sustainable growth of its micro-economic levels, we would be giving them well equipped soldiers and generals.

At the present, Albanian Federation must be viewed, after the publication of the project of President Elect Aleksandar Vučić, as an urgent measure and as a viable option versus New Yugoslavia. Albanian Federation will and should be implemented by Albanians, united together with idealists, these are the final words of our founding fathers and the desire of those who will cherish Albanian lands in the upcoming centuries.

Sources:
[1] http://geschichte.history.info/2016/01/20/titos-imperium-die-balkanfoderation/
[2] At the same source
[3] http://derstandard.at/1167244/Balkanfoederation—durch-Stalin-gestoppt
[4] http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-29194834.html
[5] http://leibnizsozietaet.de/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/06_kalbe.pdf

The Libyan Conundrum: Modern Tribalism At Work – Analysis

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The Libyans, in their everlasting costly civil war, seem to act as underage youths more inclined to settle their juvenile disputes and delinquency bouts with fist fights than verbal punch ups of political negotiations and wrangling.

In reality, it is a disturbing psychological issue which makes one wonders whether they are a nation-state or merely a collection of unruly desert tribes reveling at the idea of invading other tribes, shaming their women and taking spools of war.

Fractured And Dysfunctional Libya

Location of Libya. Source: CIA World Factbook.
Location of Libya. Source: CIA World Factbook.

Libya, as a country and as a state, does not seem to exist anymore, it has been replaced by various warring “paper governments,” fundamentalist religious groupings and military factions and recently even ISIS almost established its own government in the country if it were not for the vigilance and the indirect intervention of the Western countries to push the Libyan armed groups to oust this terrorist so-called Islamic State.i

Omar al-Mukhtar (20 August 1858 – 16 September 1931), this textbook hero that united the Libyans against Italian colonialism seems to be a distant souvenir in the psyche of Libyans. Nevertheless, many lament the era of the dictator Muammar Qaddafi because he successfully insured stability, worldwide respect and awe and much bread and butter to almost everyone. Now, for the majority of Libyans, bread and security come first and democracy is rather a luxury they cannot afford, for the time being.ii

The sole enemy of Libyans today is not Italy, the West or even some Arab countries but Libyans themselves. In their haughtiness they are unable to find a solution to their plight because they are unable to undertake properly the following basic actions:

  • Sit with each other;
  • Talk to each other;
  • Listen to each other;
  • Negotiate; and
  • Make concessions.

As a result, the entire Libya is enveloped in an incredible brouhaha: all Libyans are firing at each other in unison, when they are doing any talking they are talking at the same time and nobody is listening and they are all blaming the other for their plight and demise. There is definitely something wrong with them or with their thinking pattern and logic.

In the big Libyan feud that has been going on continuously since the death of Qaddafi in 2011, there are three major protagonists and hundreds of small players with different agendas and huge egos:

The Islamists:

They are based in Tripoli and have formed a government recognized by the international community because it is the result of the Skhirate Agreement of December 17, 2015,iii negotiated by the UNSMIL under the aegis of the UN. This government has failed to get all the protagonists in through negotiations and acts as the only legitimate political force in the country and on top of that incarnating God’s will. The head of the government Fayez al-Sarrajiv acts more like a militia leader than the country’s Prime Minister empowered to unify the country and is not doing what is necessary to get all Libyan politicians behind him.

The question, however, is: is he unable to get people together to agree on Libyan salvation or does he personally have an axe to grind?

The Secularists:

They are to be found in Tobruk under the erratic leadership of the 73 year old retired military strongman general Khalifa Haftarv who has only one thing in mind chasing the Islamists from power and establishing an al-Sisi like form of government totally controlled by the army and where the Islamists and democrats will have no place whatsoever. The West might accommodate itself with such a government like in the case of Egypt for security reasons but they will never accept it fully on its face value. Haftar has good relations with the Americans and the CIA and is trying to balance that with good ties with Russia, lately.

In this regard Roland Elephant writes in The Telegraph of March 24, 2017:vi

“Russia has deployed troops to Egypt amid a strengthening of ties between Moscow and General Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who controls much of the eastern part of Libya, a US general said on Friday.

Marine Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, the commander of U.S. Africa Command, said the link between Russia and General Haftar, the head of a group called the Libyan National Army, is “undeniable.”

“They are on the ground. They are trying to influence the action. We watch what they do with great concern,” he told reporters in the Pentagon on Friday.”

The Tribalists:

The Zintan tribe liberatedvii Seif al-Islam Qaddafi on April 12, 2016 after his death sentence by a Tripoli courtviii was quashed by the Tobruk government with in mind, probably, allowing him to play a major political role in the future Libya.
On this particular point Hanne Nabintu Herland writes in the Foreign Policy Journal of February 10, 2017:ix

“President Trump has a golden moment in history to breach some of the terrible reputation the US now have all over the globe, as US war-mongering and ruthless foreign policy has caused unspeakable damage to millions of innocent civilians, traumatized by loss and bitterness, outside the US’s own borders. It is obvious that the Trump administration aims to team up with more moderate forces in the Middle East. When Gaddafi was in the US, it was Trump property he placed his tent on. Repeatedly Trump admits that “getting rid of” Gaddafi was a big mistake, stating that Libya would be a 100% better country if Gaddafi had not been killed, Sources now state that more than one million Gaddafi supporters live in Egypt, waiting to return to Libya, and around 300,000 in Tunisia.”

She goes on further to say:

“Peace in Libya would for certain award the US President a great name as a peace broker in history. The solution to the Libyan crisis is to support the Green movement and The Popular Front for the Liberation of Libya, now nationally unified behind London School of Economics-educated Saif al-Islam Gaddafi. The push is for equality, prosperity and stability, away from division, exclusion and marginalization—the reunification of the Libyan people under one democratic, tribal-backed leader. The development will be most interesting to follow in the months to come.”

Consequently the Zintans have not only freed the son of Muammar Qaddafi but they have, also, given him, with other tribes, allegiance to become the next leader of Libya. This is undoubtedly an apologetic gesture to the Qaddafi era during which Libya was stable internally, feared internationally and economically prospering at home and elsewhere. Now the Libyan have to struggle to get their daily bread and their lives are constantly in danger.

Tribal Libya

As of now the actual drama of Libya is that there are too many chiefs and too few Indians and these presumed chiefs have egos bigger than their intelligence or horse sense or even Libya itself. So, in many ways their conceited personalities use their positions of leadership for personal satisfaction and the country’s interest comes in secondary position. That is why the actual chaos and dysfunction of this country continues crescendo. It seems that personal feuds take precedence over political differences and national interest.

Libya's Muammar al-Gaddafi. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt
Libya’s Muammar al-Gaddafi. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt

So, in many ways all the present factions in Libya are currently reacting to each other’s moves in a tribal manner, which is an innate impulse. Hardly anyone thinks of Libya as a country, for the time being.x Under Qaddafi, it was a country because he had megalomaniac designs at the Arab, Islamic, African and international levels.

A proof of that is that many factions, militias or tribes are trying to make money for themselves from selling oil or perceiving high passage tax from African economic immigrants who want to use the Libyan soil as a stepping stone to go to the European Eldorado. So the Libyans in their majority think region or rather tribe more than country and nation, and, indeed, each region/tribe has its own militia to protect it and nobody trusts the national army or police force, if they really exist.

In this charged atmosphere, the underlying narrative is twofold and it is purely tribal, alas:

  • The enemy of my enemy is my friend; and
  • Me and my brother against my cousin.

In other words maybe the concept of Libya is recognized, for the moment, in a general loose way, but regional interest comes first and always first even among the Islamists among which the term Ummah “nation of believers” is supposed to take precedence over any other social gathering. The various Islamist militias in the country have not been able to rally under the banner of Islam; as it were, instead each one is fighting its own war for its own interests and gains in the name of Allah, of course.

In the recent history of Libya only three political institutions have been able to unite the Libyans, whose underlying tribalism is much stronger and far-reaching than nation-state feelings:

  • Omar al-Mukhtar and his call for Jihad against the colonial Italian Christians and his guerrilla war campaign (1923-1931) to free Libya from the yoke of European domination. His saga was masterfully made into a feature film entitled: “Lion of the Desert” by the Syrian-American director Mustapha al-Akkad and released on April 17, 1981 to international acclaim with Anthony Quinn in the role of the Libyan Jihad hero.xi
  • The conservative monarchy under the gentle and self-effacing King Idris Senussi (1951-1969) who was also the chief of the Senussi Muslim order to which belonged Omar al-Mukhtar; and right after under;
  • The strong secular leadership of the dictator Muammar Qaddafi (1961-2011,) who repressed violently any form of political dissent or uprising and dreamed of unity with the Arabs first, and when he could not, with Africa and duly provided free bread to all Libyans generously and arms and money to all kind of liberation movements worldwide.

So What Now? Libyan To Libyan Dialogue In Libya

Libya is seriously facing disintegration into three taifa-type states;xii Tripoli, Tobruk, and Zintan and, maybe, even more. So far the Libyans have been relying on external parties to unite them: Washington, Brussels, Rabat, Algiers, Cairo, UN etc., to no avail because of their underlying underage behavior and their pig-headedness. Somehow these countries have given up on them, for now, in spite of the wealth of the country and various business opportunities.

Consequently, the Libyans have to rely on themselves. First they have to set up a National Salvation Council made of elder politicians of all regions and political tendencies to organize and hold a National Libyan Dialogue to come up with a National Salvation Government, whose first action is to put together a genuine army and police force that will be entrusted with disarming the militias and organizing municipal and legislative elections, thereafter.

Libya is an oil-rich country,xiii it has a small population (6.278 million (2015) according to the World Bank). So it has the means to feed its entire population if the wealth is shared equally outside of any tribalism and personal interest.

What the Libyans need now urgently is: Libyan to Libyan dialogue in Libya. Would they heed this piece of advice? Only time will show.

Endnotes:
i. http://www.eurasiareview.com/30042017-is-libya-a-de-facto-failed-state-analysis/
ii. https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2014/11/143381/what-comes-first-bread-or-democracy/
iii. https://unsmil.unmissions.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=miXuJYkQAQg%3D&tabid=3559&mid=6187&language=fr
iv. http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/who-is-libyas-new-prime-minister-designate-fayez-al-sarraj
v. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27492354
vi. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/24/russian-troops-ground-libya-us-general-claims/
vii. https://intpolicydigest.org/2017/03/19/are-libyans-ready-for-another-qaddafi/
viii. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/28/saif-al-islam-sentenced-death-by-court-in-libya-gaddafi-son
ix. https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2017/02/10/could-muammar-gaddafis-son-saif-al-islam-solve-the-libya-crisis/
x. http://international.minbarlibya.com/2017/05/05/the-nation-state-and-region-pre-and-post-arab-spring/
xi. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiw9oaasOrTAhUrB8AKHZ4-C7EQFghGMAY&url=https%3A%2F%2Fislammovies.wordpress.com%2F2012%2F11%2F10%2Flion-of-the-desert-english%2F&usg=AFQjCNGu8bo_pCG9-11OijgQrDBrVOxaoA&sig2=npnsqa2eKyyYcHjfUM1Vzg
xii. https://www.britannica.com/topic/taifa
Taifa, Arabic ṭāʾifah, plural ṭawāʾif, a faction or party, as applied to the followers of any of the petty kings who appeared in Muslim Spain in a period of great political fragmentation early in the 11th century after the dissolution of the central authority of the Umayyad caliphate of Córdoba. After the dictatorship of al-Muẓaffar (reigned 1002–08), civil war reduced the caliphate to a puppet institution and allowed the various taifas to establish themselves in independent and short-lived kingdoms throughout the Iberian Peninsula. There were at least 23 such states between 1009 and their final conquest by the Almoravids of North Africa in 1091. Thus, the Berbers counted in their party the Afṭasids of Badajoz, the Dhū al-Nūnids of Toledo, and the Ḥammūdids of Málaga, who briefly helped the Córdoban caliphate. The Andalusians, or Hispano-Arabs, were represented by the ʿAbbādids of Sevilla (Seville), the Jahwarids of Córdoba, and the Hūdids of Zaragoza. The Ṣaqālibah (Slav mercenaries) did not form dynasties but created such kingdoms as Tortosa, Denia, and Valencia.
xiii. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/libya/gdp-per-capita
The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Libya was last recorded at 5449.03 US dollars in 2015. The GDP per Capita in Libya is equivalent to 43 percent of the world’s average. GDP per capita in Libya averaged 9167.71 USD from 1999 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 11933.78 USD in 2010 and a record low of 4509.26 USD in 2011.

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