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EU’s Juncker Promises To Take On US If Russia Sanctions Hurt Europe – OpEd

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Europe will come up with an “adequate” response and “within days” if the newly-signed US anti-Russian sanctions law hurts the interests of European companies working with Russia, European Commission Head Jean-Claude Juncker has warned.

European interests should be always taken into account when it comes to enabling new US sanctions, Juncker said in an interview to the German ARD-Europastudio Brussel.

“We must defend our economic interests even against the US. And that is what we are going to do,” Juncker said.

“We are ready,” he added, pointing out that EU reserves the right to take retaliatory measures in case its interests are violated. He also drew attention to the fact that the newly-signed US law can have “unpredictable” consequences for the EU in the field of energy security.

The new US sanctions can affect EU efforts to diversify its energy supply, particularly in the Baltic region, the European Commission head warned.

Nevertheless, he expressed hope that the US would still take Europe’s interests into account by saying “the US Congress stated that these sanctions should be imposed only in consultation with the US allies” and he “assumes” that the EU “is still a US ally.”

Juncker recalled his own statements made during the G-7 meeting in Italy and G-20 meeting in Germany that the EU would be ready to respond within a short period of time in case the US imposes new unilateral sanctions against Russia.

Pointedly though, he reaffirmed the EU commitment to the policy of sanctions against Russia and said that unity and close cooperation in the field of such policy between the G7 countries is necessary to facilitate the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements, which stipulate principles for a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis.

Earlier Berlin said that US sanctions against Russia violate international law. “We consider this as being against international law, plain and simple,” German economy minister Brigitte Zypries said Monday.

“Of course we don’t want a trade war. But it is important the European Commission now looks into countermeasures,” she said adding that “the Americans can not punish German companies because they operate economically in another country.”

Earlier Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed into law the bill which imposes new sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea and which limits his ability to ease sanctions without approval from Congress.

Both Chambers of the US Congress voted with veto-proof majorities to approve the bill which seeks to punish Russia over a raft of American perceived ‘transgressions’, including its support for the Syrian government, alleged support for the rebels in Ukraine, as well as Crimea’s accession to Russia and Moscow’s purported meddling in last year’s US election.

Following the bill’s approval by the House and Senate last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the US would have to cut its embassy staff in Russia by 755 people by September and said Moscow would also seize several buildings used by US diplomats.

After Trump signed the bill into law, the Russian envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, said Russia will not “bend or break” over US sanctions and will not change its policy. He said that Moscow will, however, continue to look for ways to cooperate with the US on issues such as Syria.

Despite it all, Trump signed what he himself termed “significantly flawed” legislation while warning that it would “hinder our important work with European allies.”


Clash Between Tuvin And Ethnic Russian Soldiers At Training Academy Turns Violent – OpEd

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Sixty ethnic Tuvin professional soldiers clashed with about 100 ethnic Russian professional soldiers at a sergeants training academy in Yelan in Sverdlovsk oblast earlier this week. The fighting turned violent and 14 of the soldiers remain hospitalized, according to regional news agencies (ura.news/news/1052299414).

According to anonymous inside sources, “three months ago approximately 60 contract soldiers arrived from Tuva to take courses” so that they could be promoted. On the night before graduation, they purchased alcohol to celebrate but “having gotten drunk, they recalled” the hostility and mistreatment they had encountered from the ethnic Russian soldiers.

Armed with knives and clubs, they threw themselves on the Russians, wounding 13 soldiers and one officer. An investigation has begun, and the defense ministry is supposedly flying in from Moscow. But officials have gone out of their say to say that no guns were used in the clash (nakanune.ru/news/2017/8/3/22478334/).

On the one hand, many may be tempted to dismiss this as the result of alcohol at a time of graduation ceremonies; but on the other, this event may be far more serious than the usual incidents of “dedovshchina” that are routinely reported which involve what the Russians calls “non-standard behavior” by one group of soldiers against others, usually more junior draftees.

There are at least three reasons for the conclusion, one that will be most worrisome to Russian commanders. First, these were all professional soldiers, people who had been screened for longterm service as sergeants in the Russian army. If they are so deeply split ethnically as to come to blow, unit cohesion below them is likely to be even more problematic.

Second, the relative size of the two components – 60 Tuvins to 100 ethnic Russians – reflects the demographic decline of the Russian nation and the fact that Moscow is increasingly forced to draft or recruit as professionals ever more non-Russians who continue to grow at a more rapid rate than do the Russians.

And third, the fact that it was the Tuvans in this case is likely to be worrisome not only because Russian commanders have typically viewed the Tuvans as more loyal and obedient than the North Caucasians whom it still does not draft heavily or promote but have chosen to promote them.

If Moscow can no longer count on non-Russian nations like the Tuvins, it can’t count on almost anyone other than ethnic Russians. There will thus be fallout from this clash, but it remains to be seen how much of it will be reported.

Alaska’s North Slope Snow-Free Season Is Lengthening

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On the North Slope of Alaska, snow is melting earlier in the spring and the snow-in date is happening later in the fall, according to a new study by CIRES and NOAA researchers. Atmospheric dynamics and sea ice conditions are behind this lengthening of the snow-free season, the scientists found, and the consequences are far reaching — including birds laying eggs sooner and iced-over rivers flowing earlier.

“The timing of snowmelt and length of the snow-free season significantly impacts weather, the permafrost, and wildlife — in short, the Arctic terrestrial system as a whole,” said Christopher Cox, a scientist with CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s Physical Sciences Division in Boulder, Colorado. The study has been accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Focusing on the transition seasons on the North Slope — the springtime snowmelt and the autumn onset of snowpack — the researchers found that since the mid-1970s, the spring melt has been happening earlier, and the first snow has been happening later. The end result: an increase in length of the snow-free season, by about one week per decade from 1975 to 2016. From 1975 to 2016, the spring snowmelt has arrived nearly three days earlier every decade, and from 1979-2016, snow onset has arrived later, by about 4.5 days every decade.

CIRES and NOAA researchers and their colleagues analyzed long-term observations of snow cover and meteorology at the NOAA Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory outside of Utqia?vik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, along with other records of environmental variables in the region.

Despite natural swings up and down, a persistent, long-term warming trend emerged: eight of the 10 earliest melt dates have occurred since 1990, pointing to the influence of warming Arctic temperatures. 2016 experienced the earliest melt, the latest onset of snow in autumn, and the longest snow-free season in 115 years of record-keeping — about 45 percent longer than the average over the previous four decades.

The researchers then began dissecting their data to find weather-related factors that might be contributing to these observed changes. They found different factors at work in spring versus fall. Changes in flow patterns of warm Pacific Ocean air from the south were driving earlier spring snowmelt, while decreasing summer sea ice had the greatest influence on later onset of snowpack in the fall.

The researchers found that large-scale features of atmospheric circulation–in particular, the strength and position of the Aleutian Low, a semi-permanent, subpolar area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Alaska near the Aleutian Islands–largely determined the timing of snowmelt during spring in Alaska, by either facilitating or inhibiting the transport of warm, moist air into the region.

Conversely, in autumn, the amount of open water in the Beaufort and eastern Chukchi Seas appeared to be very influential in affecting the temperature at Utqia?vik and the subsequent timing of the onset of snowpack. The extent of open water in the region during autumn has increased significantly in the past several decades, a signal other studies have linked to Arctic amplification.

The rapid expansion of the North Slope’s snow-free season has had consequences for water resources, wildlife behavior, the plant growing season and more, the research team reported in the new paper. For example, on Cooper Island near Utqia?vik, where a colony of black guillemots has been monitored since 1975, researchers found that the timing of the seabirds’ egg laying correlates with Utqia?vik’s snowmelt, so earlier melt means earlier egg laying. The timing of snowmelt also influenced the timing of peak discharge from the North Slope river system and the start of the vegetative growing season, according to the researchers.

“It’s remarkable how rapidly things are changing in the Arctic and how the longer snow-free season affects so many other patterns–the guillemots, vegetation growth, and fluxes of gases from the tundra,” said Diane Stanitski, co-author of the paper and a scientist at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

This spring’s snowmelt date at Utqia?vik was late, on June 18, said lead author Cox. This late melt didn’t make it into the paper, because analyses were done by then, but the atmospheric conditions that led to the later melt were consistent with the findings in the paper. Such variability underscores the need for continued monitoring of snow cover, Cox said.

Long-term datasets from the region help scientists understand the reasons behind long-term changes and predict what the region will face in the future. “This study takes an integrated approach that addresses the need to advance Arctic environmental research at the system level, a challenge that has been recognized by the broad scientific community as necessary to improve predictions of future change,” said Cox.

Age Of First Exposure To Pornography Shapes Men’s Attitudes Toward Women

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The age at which a boy is first exposed to pornography is significantly associated with certain sexist attitudes later in life, but not necessarily in the way people might think, according to research presented at the 125th Annual Convention of the American Psychological Association.

“The goal of our study was to examine how age of first exposure to pornography, and the nature of said first exposure, predicts conformity to two masculine norms: playboy – or sexually promiscuous behavior – and seeking power over women,” said Alyssa Bischmann, a doctoral student at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln, who presented the research.

Bischmann and her colleagues surveyed 330 undergraduate men, age 17 to 54 years old, at a large Midwestern university. Participants were 85 percent white and primarily heterosexual (93 percent). They were asked about their first exposure to pornography – specifically, what age they were when it happened and whether it was intentional, accidental or forced. Participants then were asked to respond to a series of 46 questions designed to measure the two masculine norms.

Among the group, the average age of first exposure was 13.37 years of age with the youngest exposure as early as 5 and the latest older than 26. More men indicated their first exposure was accidental (43.5 percent) than intentional (33.4 percent) or forced (17.2 percent). Six percent did not indicate the nature of the exposure.

While the researchers did find a significant association between age of first exposure and adherence to the two masculine norms, the association was different for each.

“We found that the younger a man was when he first viewed pornography, the more likely he was to want power over women,” Bischmann said. “The older a man was when he first viewed pornography, the more likely he would want to engage in playboy behavior.”

This finding was surprising, according to co-author Chrissy Richardson, MA, also from the University of Nebraska, Lincoln, because the researchers had expected both norms to be higher with a lower first age of exposure.

“The most interesting finding from this study was that older age at first exposure predicted greater adherence to the playboy masculine norms. That finding has sparked many more questions and potential research ideas because it was so unexpected based on what we know about gender role socialization and media exposure,” said Richardson.

Bischmann suspects that the findings may be related to unexamined variables, such as the participants’ religiosity, sexual performance anxiety, negative sexual experiences or whether the first exposure experience was positive or negative. More research needs to be done, she said.

It also did not matter how the participants were exposed, as the researchers found no significant association between the nature of the exposure and attitudes.

“We were surprised that the type of exposure did not affect whether someone wanted power over women or to engage in playboy behaviors. We had expected that intentional, accidental or forced experiences would have differing outcomes,” said Bischmann.

The findings provide further evidence that pornography viewing has a real impact on heterosexual men, especially with regard to their views about sex roles, according to Richardson. Knowing more about the relationship between men’s pornography use and beliefs about women might assist sexual assault prevention efforts, especially among young boys who may have been exposed to pornography at an early age. This information could also inform the treatment of various emotional and social issues experienced by young heterosexual men who view pornography, she said.

Indonesia: Maluku Catholics Remember Sacrifice Of Dutch Missionaries

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Catholics in Indonesia’s Southeast Maluku regency have staged a special festival to commemorate Dutch missionaries who introduced Catholicism to the region and who were shot dead 75 years ago.

Japanese soldiers shot Sacred Heart Bishop Johannes Aerts, the Dutch Apostolic Vicar of New Guinea, along with five priests and eight brothers on July 30, 1942 in Langgur during World War II.

The festival took place July 28-30, and including arts performance by parishioners from 13 parishes in from Amboina Diocese.

Father Yohanis Mangkey, secretary of Sacred Heart Congregation in Indonesia Province, said a cross procession was also staged on July 29 near the place where Bishop Aerts is buried.

“We also re-enacted the final moments when they were killed,” he said.

A July 30 concelebrated Mass was also held led by Sacred Heart Bishop Benedictus Estephanus Rolly Untu of Manado and Bishop John Philip Saklil of Timika in Papua and attended by more than 10,000 Catholics.

“Muslims and Protestants also attended the Mass,” Father Mangkey said.

Bishop Aerts worked hard for local people that included building schools in remote areas, the priest said. He was also instrumental in the founding of the Mary Mediatrix Sisters in 1926, Indonesia’s oldest native sister congregation, he said.

In 1952 the Sacred Heart congregation petitioned the Vatican unsuccessfully for the beatification of the martyrs and now local Catholics want to try to push their cause again, according to Father Bernard Rahawarin, vicar general of Amboina Diocese.

“Basically, the diocese is open to it,” he said.

“Their influence is so great in the faith formation of Catholics. Their sacrifice inspires them,” he said.

Ukraine: Wladimir Klitschko Announces Retirement From Boxing

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Ukraine’s former world heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko announced his retirement from boxing on Thursday, August 3 to scupper any hopes of a November rematch against Britain’s Anthony Joshua, AFP reveals.

Hamburg-based Klitschko, 41, hangs up his gloves as one of the all-time greats of the ring after a nine-and-a-half year reign as heavyweight champion, which was ended in 2015.

Klitschko, who won super-heavyweight gold at the 1996 Atlanta Olympic Games, was the undisputed world champion from 2006-2015, when he held several belts, before finally losing to Britain’s Tyson Fury on points two years ago.

Klitschko’s last fight was in April when he was stopped by Joshua in the 11th round of the WBA title fight at Wembley Stadium in London in a hard-fought bout in which both fighters hit the canvas.

Klitschko’s retirement dashes a mooted blockbuster rematch with Joshua possibly in Las Vegas in November.

Such was the interest in Klitschko’s announcement that the demand crashed his website on Thursday morning.

“After my last fight against Anthony Joshua, I deliberately took the time to make a decision,” said Klitschko, whose elder brother Vitali, 46, is also a former world heavyweight boxing champion.

“I never thought I’d have such a long and incredibly successful boxing career, I thank you all from the bottom of my heart,” he told his fans in a statement.

Klitschko bows out with a record of 64 wins and five defeats with 54 knock-out wins professional bouts.

“I have achieved everything I dreamt of, and now I want to start my second career after sports,” added Klitschko in a video statement.

“27 years ago, I started my journey and it was the best decision I could have ever made.

“Because of this choice, I have travelled the world, learnt new languages, created businesses, built intellectual properties, helped people in need.”

Poland Revives Demand For German War Reparations

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(EurActiv) — Eight years after the end of the Second World War, Poland renounced its claim to reparations from Germany. But its parliament is ignoring that and is once again calling on Berlin to pay up.

More than 72 years after the end of WW2, Germany is facing calls to make reparations. The scientific commission of Poland’s lower house is examining ways to get it done, with analysis set to be completed by 11 August.

Under the then Mayor of Warsaw, Lech Kaczyński, the twin brother of the current leader of the ruling party, Jarosław Kaczyński, the cost of the war was estimated to have been $45.3bn for the capital alone.

“It is not true that Poland has renounced reparations from Germany,” Defence Minister Antoni Macierewicz told Polish television.

But in August 1953, Poland did give up trying to secure reparations, in order “to further contribute to the German issue of spirit of democracy and peace”, said the German government’s deputy spokesperson, Ulrike Demmer.

She added that Germany was indeed morally, politically and financially responsible for what it had done in the past, but insisted that the issue of reparations was already regulated by law and policy.

However, Macierewicz claimed that the former Polish People’s Republic was just like the East German state, the DDR, in that it was just a puppet nation controlled by the Soviet Union right up until 1989.

“Without any discussion, Poles are due war reparations from the Germans,” the defence minister warned, potentially damaging already-strained relations between Berlin and Warsaw.

Poland still refuses to take part in the EU’s refugee redistribution scheme and the European Commission has launched an infringement procedure based on Poland’s controversial reforms of the judiciary system.

The Valuable (And Underutilized) Contributions Of Multicultural Employees

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When we think of cultural diversity, we usually think of the diversity in our environment. We perhaps have suppliers, customers, partners or competitors from other countries. Maybe our company is a multinational corporation and we work with people from different countries — either on a daily basis, face-to-face, or in a virtual team.

Cultural diversity can also exist within a person. Multicultural individuals are those who have internalized and identify with more than one culture. The children and sometimes the grandchildren of immigrants frequently internalize and identify with more than one culture.

These multicultural employees can help international organizations operate across borders by connecting people across cultures and using complex thinking skills to solve international dilemmas.

According to research by Stacey R. Fitzsimmons, IESE professor Yuan Liao and David C. Thomas, the unique perspectives of multicultural individuals allow them to bring a different set of skills to their roles as expatriates, members of multicultural or global virtual teams, or global leaders.

“Individuals with more cultural identities were found to have more social capital and higher levels of intercultural skills than those with fewer cultural identities…,” the co-authors write in their article published in the Journal of International Business Studies.

However, organizations rarely plan to utilize multicultural employees’ skills, in part because they and their managers often fail to recognize their contributions to the workplace. So, what are the benefits of multicultural employees?

Intercultural Skills

One obvious advantage of multiculturals is their language skills, which means they are able to help with translation inside or outside the workplace. In our study, we found that — in a health-care organization — multicultural employees were often asked to translate for patients informally, even though there were professional interpreters on staff.

Multicultural employees may also have better intercultural skills, such as adapting or problem-solving across cultural situations. This happens because people develop a wider range of cultural tools when they have experienced more cultures, meaning they understand values, norms, and appropriate behavior for more than one cultural context. For example, a Chinese-Canadian will be more capable of both communicating directly and speaking in an apparently more roundabout fashion, depending on his or her audience.

In addition to developing cultural tools, multiculturals also develop complex thinking skills as a result of their experience handling conflicting cultural demands. They will try to understand where each perspective comes from, the consequences and constraints, and any commonalities. Through the process of differentiating those competing perspectives and drawing links across ideas, individuals develop more complex cognitive structure and become more skillful at developing alternative strategies in intercultural interactions.

Social Networks

When individuals belong to multiple cultural groups, they naturally have more diverse social networks. This happens because people tend to see fellow group members favorably, and therefore develop more social ties within their cultural groups than outside them.

The process of differentiating between fellow cultural group members versus outsiders becomes difficult when individuals have three or more cultures, because the boundaries become blurry. If you have close friends who are Canadians, Spaniards and Chinese, then you are less likely to use a cultural dimension to draw a boundary between your fellow cultural group members and outsiders, and instead use other criteria to build strong social ties, such as personality, shared interests, profession and so on. As a result, your friendships are not restricted to your own cultures, but instead span a wider range of cultures.

Psychological Well-Being

Despite the advantages of being multicultural, there are also challenges. It is psychologically difficult to reconcile conflicting demands from multiple cultures, such as conflicting sets of values, norms, assumptions and expected behaviors. For example, a second-generation immigrant may note that the culture of her birthplace (e.g., Canada) encourages her to be independent and autonomous. In contrast, the culture of her parents’ birthplace (e.g., China) may encourage her to become the person her parents and/or her boss expects her to be.

So, when people identify with more than one culture, they are more likely to be torn by conflicting demands from their multiple identities, and may even feel inconsistent and uncertain about who they are.

An Undervalued Resource

Multicultural employees and their leaders often fail to recognize the unique contributions they can offer to their organizations. A change in the way multiculturals are seen in the workplace would result in increased confidence in their potential to make positive contributions to their organizations.

At an organizational level, a different shift should take place: from only considering cultural diversity between individuals to also considering it within individuals. Managers of multicultural employees should facilitate the transition of this growing demographic from an unrecognized entity to a valued resource.

Teammates commonly expect their multicultural team members to act as liaisons because they are more likely to have boundary-crossing social networks and additional language skills.

Although this is a valuable use of multiculturals’ skills, the co-authors caution organizations to be wary of overuse; when this expectation is added on top of employees’ usual work expectations it can cause multicultural individuals to feel overburdened.

Managers working with multicultural teams should examine the amount of time their multicultural employees spend performing liaison, coordination or translation (cultural or language) activities. They should also consider whether this role is central to their performance in their organizational context, as it would be for international hotel front-desk staff, or peripheral, as for health-care providers who may be spending their time on cultural translation tasks that would be better done by specialists.

If the time is found to be excessive, managers could either find a replacement liaison to take over some of those activities, or reduce multicultural employees’ other work expectations, compensating for these important — but often unrecognized — activities.

Methodology, Very Briefly

The co-authors carried out three studies, involving nearly 1,200 people, to test the relationship between multicultural identity patterns and personal, social, and performance outcomes at work. The first one involved multicultural students, the second was conducted among employees of a hotel chain, and the third involved workers from a healthcare organization.


Atheists Should Sue Supreme Court – OpEd

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Most atheists are not terrified by religion, but the activists in their ranks are in a state of hysteria these days. Prominent among them is the Freedom From Religion Foundation (FFRF).

FFRF has written a threatening letter to Dan Hughes, mayor of Henderson County in Tennessee. The issue? A biblical verse from Psalms etched in the wall of the local county courthouse; it has been there for more than a half century.

It’s time for FFRF to do the manly thing and sue the U.S. Supreme Court.

If the militant atheists were to visit the Supreme Court, they would be apoplectic before entering: Moses and the Ten Commandments are inscribed near the top of the building.

Assuming they survived this indignity, their sensibilities would be assaulted again—even before they actually entered—by noting the Ten Commandments engraved on the lower portion of the two oak doors.

EMS personnel would have to be summoned next: inside the high court, right above where the Justices sit, is another display of the Ten Commandments.

If the atheist fundamentalists think they can escape God by walking around Washington, they are wrong: the federal buildings and the monuments will give them no relief—Christian proverbs and images are  everywhere, so much so that they pose a clear and present danger to their health.

Congress needs to authorize warning signs in the D.C. airports, alerting atheist lunatics of the need to guard their health before walking the halls of government. That would be the Christian thing to do.

China’s People’s Liberation Army Celebrates 90 Years: Reform And Expansion – Analysis

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The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was founded ninety years ago and a military parade was held at a training base in Inner Mongolia to mark this historic occasion. This is quite significant because this is the first time in over four decades that the PLA had a military parade outside of Beijing and it did mark President Xi’s promises to reform and modernize the military from a regional force into a global force.

In his speech on Tuesday, President Xi reiterated that in order to “build a strong army, we must unswervingly adhere to the party’s absolute leadership over the army.”i The modernization of the Chinese military also marked the rejuvenation of China as a nation that has had a history of being humiliated by imperialism before 1949. China’s agenda of reforming the PLA has included a combination of “national rejuvenation, military modernisation, ideological purity and a crackdown on graft in a potent mix of appeals designed to boost the army’s fighting spirit.”ii

China has also come a long way from 1949. It has the world’s second largest economy, and one of the world’s largest militaries behind the U.S. The PLA’s modernization reforms are also significant because these reforms call for China to continue to defend its sovereignty and to make sure that the message of peace is being received by the Chinese people. The five-year plan proposed by President Xi has successfully remodeled the PLA’s organizational power structures as well as its public image in China itself.

UN Peacekeeping Operations

China has now become an international military force. It just opened a new military base in Djibouti, and it does have some of the highest number of UN peacekeeping troops in the world, along with the likes of India, Pakistan, and other African nations like Ethiopia and Rwanda.

According to a United Nations Report, China currently has 2,515 UN Peacekeeping troops which is ranked 12th out of 127 nations in the world.iii China also has more UN peacekeeping troops than the four other members of the UN Security Council combined! In addition, China has spent around 10% of financial UN peacekeeping contributions only behind the United States with 28%.iv

China is in a very unique position and this is very well-documented by their commitments to resolving many global issues through humanitarian and diplomatic means. China has been a provider for mandates as a member of the UN Security Council, a financial contributor to providing natural resources to third world countries, and providing not only military officers, but police officers as well.

China’s peacekeeping operations around the world have contributed to humanitarian and security efforts in South Sudan, Mali, Lebanon, as well as with the Western Sahara and Cyprus.

The PLA and the Chinese government have had a remarkable perspective on the UN goals of peace and security. Chinese peacekeeping troops are not just combat soldiers, but they are also doctors, engineers, civilians, and police staff. Secretary General Guterres even pointed out that the UN has been responsive in a slow manner to global crises, but China does provide a rapid-reaction force to respond to these types of problems. China has also trained African peacekeeping troops with modern technology and logistics, as well as training troops from African countries to counter terrorism in the Sahel region, especially since Africa has become the largest region for UN peacekeeping missions.

Chinese soldiers have a lot of qualities when it comes to UN peacekeeping missions. They are professional, discipline, and well-trained. China has a full range of equipment which is required under the statement of unit requirements. This is important because we are facing many challenges where countries have good soldiers, but they are not well-equipped with armed personal carriers or helicopters.

What Are the PLA Reforms Designed to Do?

As we all know, China has some very ambitious, strategic goals that have contributed to its rise on the global stage. According to the DoD report, some of these goals include the following:

  • Perpetuate CCP rule;
  • Maintain domestic stability;
  • Sustain economic growth and development;
  • Defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity;
  • Secure China’s status as a great power and, ultimately, reacquire regional preeminence; and
  • Safeguard China’s interests abroad.v

All of these goals have been a part of President Xi’s China Dream which was established in 2012 to achieve a prosperous society that is “stronger, [more] democratic, culturally advanced, and harmonious”.vi President Xi is calling for a more transformative China that can be socialist, but also more liberal in the free market system. What makes President Xi’s China Dream different from our American Dream is the fact that China wants to be independent again, and it can contribute to international centrality through its modernization, its participation in international organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the United Nations (UN) to name a few examples.

The American Dream has focused more on the goals of individuals and families that want to get ahead and accomplish their dreams, but the differences between the Chinese and American dreams leaves room for another topic. In 2013, China launched the One Belt, One Road Initiative (OBOR), to connect China with the world and put aside the humiliation it faced throughout the mid-19th century into the Second World War where Japanese imperialism took a huge hit on the Chinese mainland. The historical memories of many Chinese are still in their minds, but China feels that their rise as an economic power that invests heavily in not only the private sector where there are many state-owned enterprises (SOE’s), but its ever- growing middle class and infrastructure reforms have domestically and internationally transformed itself into a global powerhouse that is a reliable partner for the world including less developed countries.

The Chinese military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has two centennial goals that they hope to achieve by 2020. According to the report, these two goals include; “China’s military leaders want to achieve mechanization and to make “major progress” toward informatization by 2020, ahead of the first centenary goal. They also seek to reach a goal of “modernization,” an unclear objective possibly tied to a peer capability with the U.S. military, by the second centenary goal in the middle of this century.”vii

In addition, China’s coercive approach in the South China Sea is seen by the United States and many of the regional players as worrisome, but the regional players like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan want to maintain a balance that relies on U.S security while at the same time, still relying on Chinese economic trade. However, many are worried that China’s claims undermine the claims of other countries that share the South China Sea with Beijing; “China’s construction in the Spratly Islands demonstrates China’s capacity—and a newfound willingness to exercise that capacity—to strengthen China’s control over disputed areas, enhance China’s presence, and challenge other claimants.”viii

China would be too clever to use its coercive approach to carry out an attack, and historically, its foreign policy is not structured on carrying out any type of aggression. Some can also argue that China’s claims in the South China Sea go beyond its borders and this could be viewed by some as aggression.

The South China Sea is significantly important because it contains most of the world’s oil and gas reserves, but East Asia is so reliant on the flow of oil and commerce flowing through the region, and the United States can be a balancing power that prevents one country, in this case China, from becoming too dominant in having their say over the natural resources in some of these islands including the Paracels and the Spratlys. China, however, claims that it has ““indisputable sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea and the adjacent waters, and enjoys sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the relevant waters as well as the seabed and subsoil thereof”.ix One example of this came in 2016, with the arbitration case against China that they had no legal authorization over the islands over historical rights and convention laws.

China’s foreign policy overall is not designed to carry out an attack, but if an adversary were to attack, it would respond. China also uses a coercive approach to advance its national interests in economic activities, and strengthen its influence in the Asia-Pacific region when it comes to the South China Sea. According to the DoD report, China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea “fall below the threshold of provoking the United States, its allies and partners, or others in the Asia-Pacific region into open conflict.”x In addition, China has also been expanding its capacity in the Spratly Islands, where it challenges other claimants and enhances it presence as the main power in the Asia-Pacific.

China’s Modern Militarization Goals

According to the DoD report, some of China’s military goals include improving “its ability to conduct anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), power projection operations, and nuclear deterrence. It also continues to develop capabilities for what PLA writings call “non-war” missions, as well as operations in emerging domains such as cyberspace, space, and the electromagnetic spectrum.”xi China’s armed missile programs have modernized quite rapidly. In addition, the PLA objectives of expanding peaceful operations may contest U.S hegemony as a security mediator in the South China Sea. The PLA’s development into a global force has expanded beyond China’s waters and into the far seas through sovereignty enforcement, enhancing ISR capabilities, and improving targeting to reduce any potential threats.

Another aspect of China’s militarization goals has been its ‘no first use policy’ in relevance to its nuclear program. This policy is a policy that China will only react if another actor uses nuclear weapons against it. In addition, there are two pledges that China has committed to under the ‘no first use policy’. First, “China will never use nuclear weapons first at any time and under any circumstances, and it unconditionally undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon state or in nuclear-weapon-free zones.”xii However, some critics argue that there could be a time where China would be pressured to use nuclear weapons first.

One example would include; “if an enemy’s conventional attack threatened the survival of China’s nuclear force or of the regime itself.”xiii If this were to happen, which seems unlikely, then China would probably react with force. China claims that their nuclear program is used for peaceful purposes and nuclear deterrence.

Beijing’s deterrence strategy is designed to survive a first strike by any actor and respond by using force if were attacked, to inflict damage to an enemy. There are two prongs to China’s developments in nuclear deterrence. The first prong consists of a Nuclear Triad, which delivers intelligence systems by land, air, and sea, and the other prong is the launch on warning, which enables China to respond more rapidly to an attack. China’s nuclear triad is similar in size to that of Russia and the United States, but its nuclear force is much smaller compared to the U.S, Russia, and European powers like Britain and France.

Unlike the U.S and Russia, China stores most of its nuclear weapons underground through a network of tunnels or as the Chinese call it ‘the underground great wall of China’. The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces and the People’s Liberation Army Navy are responsible for land and sea based capabilities and there is no clear nuclear mission coming out of Beijing. China’s nuclear capabilities are used for self-defense to deter an attack and it is not designed to carry out an aggressive offensive. The Launch on Warning is basically a nuclear posturing by Beijing to use “heightened readiness, improved surveillance, and streamlined decision-making processes to enable a more rapid response to enemy attack.”xiv China is also working on a space-based capability that supports this tactic in the future.

China’s ability to become a dominant sea power has enabled them to conduct naval operations beyond their periphery and extend its air defense umbrellas beyond coastal areas where there is Chinese influence. Also, the Chinese have extended its modernization of ship, submarine, and aircraft ASCM’s.

Beijing is also preparing its More Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) initiative, which includes international rescues, counterterrorism, emergency responses, and other security tasks. The MOOTW also includes groups where Beijing has played more non-traditional roles besides military power. These groups include food/disaster relief forces, post-earthquake forces, international peacekeeping, emergency relief for transportation, and emergency rescue for biological/chemical disasters.

U.S Strategic Engagement

U.S engagement with China is crucial for the future of U.S-China relations. In order to improve these relations, the DoD report highlighted three main aspects to engage with China strategically, “(1) building sustained and substantive dialogue through policy dialogues and senior leader engagements; (2) building concrete, practical cooperation in areas of mutual interest; and (3) enhancing risk management efforts that diminish the potential for misunderstanding or miscalculation.”xv

China’s military capabilities are a reliability for countering terrorism, piracy, and providing humanitarian assistance to peacemaking in all corners of the globe. However, with China’s expanding global influence, there is a worry about a miscalculation, especially in highly contested areas like the South China Sea and even in South Asia. A strong relationship with China that maintains a balance in the Asia-Pacific region is vital for U.S interests and it is also vital for continuing cooperation with Beijing and our allies in the region. The U.S objective is not only about strong engagement, but it is diplomatically committed to ensuring that China be a stable player for all countries in the Asia-Pacific. The United States will also continue to diplomatically engage with China on a position of strength that enhances regional cooperation, and deepens partnerships with China and our allies.

Notes:
i. Minnie Chan, “What’s driving Chinese President Xi Jingping’s military modernisation push?” August 1, 2017 South China Morning Post http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2104915/whats-driving-chinese-president-xi-jinpings-military
ii. Minnie Chan, “What’s driving Chinese President Xi Jingping’s military modernisation push?” August 1, 2017 South China Morning Post http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2104915/whats-driving-chinese-president-xi-jinpings-military
iii. Summary of Troop Contributing Countries by Ranking” June 30, 2017 United Nations http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/contributors/2017/jun17_2.pdf
iv. “Financing Peacekeeping” 2016-2018 United Nations http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/70/331/Add.1
“Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
v. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
vi. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
vii. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
viii. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
ix. Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
x. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
xi. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
xii. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
xiii. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
xiv. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
xv. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” Generated May 15, 2017 Department of Defense https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

Don’t Lie To Poor Kids About Why They’re Poor – OpEd

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By Josh Hoxie*

Work hard and you’ll get ahead — that’s the mantra driven into young people across the country.

But what happens when children born into poverty run face first into the crushing reality that the society they live in really isn’t that fair at all?

As new research shows, they break down.

A just released study published in the journal Child Development tracked the middle school experience of a group of diverse, low-income students in Arizona. The study found that the kids who believed society was generally fair typically had high self-esteem, good classroom behavior, and less delinquent behavior outside of school when they showed up in the sixth grade.

When those same kids left in the eighth grade, though, each of those criteria had degraded — they showed lower self-esteem and worse behavior.

What caused this downward slide?

In short, belief in a fair and just system of returns ran head-on into reality for marginalized kids. When they see people that look like them struggling despite working hard, they’re forced to reckon with the cognitive dissonance.

This problem doesn’t afflict the well-off, who can comfortably imagine their success is the result of their hard work and not their inherited advantage.

Erin Godfrey, a psychology professor at New York University and the study’s lead author, explains that for marginalized kids who behave badly, “there’s this element of people think of me this way anyway, so this must be who I am.” She points out that middle school is the time when many young people begin to notice personal discrimination, identify as a member of a marginalized group, and recognize the existence of systemic discrimination.

The existence of a permanent and rigid system of inequality can be hard to grapple with at any age. The United States leads the world in overall wealth yet is also near the top in childhood poverty, with one in five kids born into poverty.

Despite an often-repeated myth about social mobility — the ability of the poor to become rich — the United States lags behind in this category. Canada now has three times the social mobility of the United States.

The gap between the rich and poor starts early. A 2016 study by the United Nations Children’s Emergency Fund reports: “From as early as the age of 3, children from more affluent backgrounds tend to do better in cognitive tests.” By age 5, children from poor families are three times more likely to be in the bottom 10 percent in cognitive ability.

It’s a complex problem. But the solutions to this deep structural inequality are actually fairly straightforward.

In short, we need major investments in universal public programs to rebuild the social safety net, ensure early childhood education as well as debt-free higher education, and good-paying jobs.

In other words, we need to help those born without inherited assets to get the same shot at education and employment as everyone else — and also reassure them that if they fail, they won’t end up homeless.

Those who claim the country can’t afford such programs should look at the massive subsidies lavished out to the ultra-wealthy. In 2016, half a trillion dollars were doled out in tax subsidies, overwhelmingly to the already rich.

But before we do all that, we simply have to tell the truth: Our economic system is far from fair. It’s tilted heavily against marginalized communities.

Teaching that to kids, rather than perpetuating a myth about “fairness,” is an important step forward.

*Josh Hoxie directs the Project on Taxation and Opportunity at the Institute for Policy Studies. Distributed by OtherWords.org

Anti-Semitism Is Not The Issue; Palestine Is – OpEd

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By Rima Najjar*

Anti-Semitism should not be used as an issue in discussions and debates over the struggle for the liberation of Palestine. Ever since the establishment of the Jewish state in Palestine and all throughout the unfolding of Zionist policy, Jews like Chaim Weizmann have expressed the idea that Zionist crimes in Palestine are to be deplored, not so much because of their nature as acts of butchery against a largely unarmed Palestinian Arab population, 80% of whom were agrarian, but because of the negative impact such crimes, once broadcast, would have on the well-being of Jews worldwide.  In his autobiography Trial and Error, he writes:

“I have said that the terrorist groups in Palestine represented a grave danger to the whole future of the Jewish state. Actually their behavior has been next door to anarchy. The analogy which is usually drawn between these groups and what happened in Ireland or South Africa presents only a half truth. It leaves out of account that one fundamental fact with which the Jews have to reckon primarily; namely that they have many hostages all over the world. And although Palestine is the primary consideration, it must not, it has no right to, endanger the situation of Jews outside of Palestine. Apart from which it must be remembered that after all the building of Palestine will depend to a large extent on the good will of the Jews outside.”

As is well known by now, the building of Palestine in the form of Israel did, in fact, depend, and continues to depend in large part, on the good will of the Jews “outside,” many as Norman H. Finkelstein writes in American Jewish History, deriving renewed pride in their religion and their connections to Israel with each Israeli military victory.

The irony/tragedy is that Israeli governments throughout history, including now with the Trump/Bannon merger, work with anti-Semites to promote Jewish immigration to Israel. Zionist collaboration with Nazis is also documented. Nevertheless, anti-Semitism should not be taking center stage either in arguments against Palestinians or in pro-Palestine arguments.

Anti-Semitism is a fake issue when it is used by Israel in its PR arsenal against Palestinian Arabs. Tony Greenstein, for example, has published statistics on his blog with the headline: “More Fake News – Zionist Claims that Anti-Semitism has increased by 30% in one year: Despite the headlines – Anti-Semitism in Britain is declining, not increasing;  a decline in anti-Semitism doesn’t serve Zionist interests”. This is his attempt to counter Israel’s fierce campaigns in the UK and elsewhere to conflate anti-Semitism with criticism of anti-Zionist policy.

And we are still seeing approaches that use the same argument against Israel’s oppression as that used by Weizmann. In Haaretz, Tony Klug has an opinion piece titled:  If Israel’s Occupation Doesn’t End, anti-Semitism Worldwide Will Rise to Sinister Heights. By “occupation”, he means, not the totality of the Zionist project in Palestine, but the following, as expressed in the sub-heading: “50 years of occupation have reawakened latent prejudices and old stereotypes not only against Jews, but also against Arabs and Muslims. But many still deny Israel’s increasingly oppressive control is a crucial factor”.

Tony Klug, through Haaretz and Mondoweiss, is addressing other Jews. He blames Israel, correctly in my view, not only for a potential rise in anti-Semitism worldwide, but also for the rising Islamophobia and anti-Arab racism which Jewish organizations foster in Israel’s name. Arab and Muslim violence, he implies, is connected to denial of the cause of the violence. In a way, he wants to scare Jews into awareness and action against the occupation of 50 years, though not necessarily against the occupation of 70 years.

Appealing to people’s rational self-interest in making an argument is effective. But there is a problem for Palestinians in this approach, because not appealing to someone’s altruism obfuscates the appeal to people’s sense of justice and fairness. It is ultimately the interest of Palestinians rather than Jews that is at stake here.

But the heart of Klug’s argument is this: he is worried that, “the moral appeal of Israel’s case will consequently [as a result of the denial of the oppression of the occupation] suffer and this will further erode her level of international support, although probably not among organized opinion within the Jewish diaspora.”

Contrary to what Klug says above, this is an argument that might work only with “organized opinion [by which I understand organized by Zionists] within the Jewish diaspora”.  Such opinion is organized to safeguard the existence of the Jewish state at any cost – even the cost of a smaller Israel. In his autobiography commenting on Great Britain’s White Paper regarding the partitioning of Palestine, Weizmann remarks “that God promised Palestine to the children of Israel, but I do not know what boundaries He set.”  In other words, boundaries may be vague, but the “moral” claim (here expressed in religious terms) to Palestine is unquestionable.

Klug speaks for Palestinians as “yearning for independence” without truly understanding himself what Palestinian fundamental human rights are and how these rights are trampled, not only by the occupation, but also by the existence of Israel as a Jewish state.

In making an appeal to Jews or anybody, Palestinians must certainly not frame their appeal the way Klug, a consultant to the Palestine Strategy Group and the Israel Strategic Forum, does. Rather, they must frame their appeal on the litmus test of principles of justice, human rights and equality – i.e., principles that that the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement embodies.

Yes, what we need in Jewish communities and public opinion generally are “transformations”, but not ones, as Nada Elis says, based on exclusivity.

I am grateful both for the activism of [Jewish Voice for Peace] JVP, and for [Jewish liberation theologian Marc] Ellis’ prodding of his religious community to acknowledge Israel’s violations of the human rights of the Palestinian people beginning in 1948. Yes, there is an urgent need for accountability and transformation. But maintaining claims to exclusivity is a hindrance, not a contribution to a solution that hinges on co-resistance to racism. As Israel openly embraces Jewish supremacy and the ongoing ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people, a hushed denunciation of “the occupation” falls short of the necessary “transformation,” and cannot be considered progressive. And as we seek to co-exist, after successfully co-resisting apartheid and genocide, we cannot attribute a deeply-engrained commitment to justice to one community over another.

Klug writes about “denial” when he himself is in denial of the Nakba of 1948, if not the 1967 occupation. Palestinians badly need Jews to advocate for them. But I envision such activism along the lines that K Sheshu Babu does in a comment on my article Jews Worldwide Must Support the Palestinian Cause: “Jews round the world must unite to pressure the Israeli government to liberate Palestinians and free their lands. But more than that, Jews in Israel must rebel against their own government and fight for justice to Palestinians. They must organize mass movements in solidarity with Palestinians.”

* Rima Najjar is a Palestinian whose father’s side of the family comes from the forcibly depopulated village of Lifta on the western outskirts of Jerusalem. She is an activist, researcher and retired professor of English literature, Al-Quds University, occupied West Bank. She contributed this article to PalestineChronicle.com. 

US Job Growth Strong Again In July – Analysis

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the economy added 209,000 jobs in July, somewhat more than the consensus estimated. The revisions to the prior two months data were largely offsetting, bringing the three-month average to 195,000. The strong job growth brought the unemployment rate back down to the 4.3 percent rate reached in May, the low for the recovery. There was also a slight uptick in the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) to 60.2 percent, a new high for the recovery.

Some of the other data in the report were more mixed. While the single-month wage growth was strong at 9 cents per hour, this is a very erratic figure. The rate over the last 12 months was 2.5 percent. Furthermore, the average wage for the last three months compared with the prior three months grew at just a 2.3 percent annual rate. While this is a very modest deceleration, clearly it is not possible to make a case that wage growth is accelerating in spite of the relatively low unemployment rate. The average hourly wage for production nonsupervisory workers has risen just 2.4 percent over the last year, making the claims of labor shortages for less-educated works rather dubious.

The percentage of unemployment due to voluntary quits fell back to 10.9 percent. By comparison, this figure was over 12.0 percent in 2006 and 2007 and peaked at more than 15.0 percent in 2000. The low share of quits suggests that workers are not confident in their labor market prospects. The duration measures for unemployment spells also all edged up in July, with the median duration rising by a full week to 10.6 weeks and the average by 0.2 weeks to 24.9 weeks.

It is also worth noting that the data continue to refuse to comply with the skills shortage story. The employment rate for college grads actually fell 0.2 percentage points in July and is unchanged over the last year. By contrast, the employment rate for those with just a high school degree is up by 0.8 percentage points over the last year.

The job growth in July was heavily concentrated in a small number of sectors. Restaurants added 53,100 jobs, accounting for more than a quarter of the month’s gains. Health care added 39,400 jobs, considerably more than its 27,000 average over the last year. Administration and waste services added 30,000 jobs, more than half of which were accounted for by the 15,500 jobs in employment services.

Manufacturing added 16,000 jobs, with fabricated metals being the biggest gainer with 5,000 jobs. Construction added just 6,000 jobs, down from an average of 16,000 over the last year. The mining sector added just 1,200 jobs, with coal mining losing 200 jobs.

One positive item in the July data was a jump of 469,000 in voluntary part-time employment to 21,260,000, an all-time high. These are people who say they are working part-time by choice. While the monthly numbers are highly erratic, voluntary part-time employment has been on a strong upward path since the Affordable Care Act took full effect in January of 2014. It is now up by more than 2.4 million from its December 2013 level. At the same time, the number of people involuntarily working part-time is down by more than 2.5 million.

One very positive sign in this report was an increase of 0.2 percentage points in the EPOP for prime-age (ages 25 to 54) workers to 78.7 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the year-ago level. The EPOP for prime-age men is up by 0.4 percentage points, while the EPOP for prime-age women is up by a full percentage point over the last year. This suggests that workers are still coming back into the labor force.

In sum, this is a generally positive report showing that the economy is still adding jobs at a healthy pace. However, the weak wage growth indicates that employers are not feeling a need to raise wages. And, the fact that so much of the employment growth was in the low-paying restaurant sector indicates workers still do not have much choice in jobs. The low quit rate supports this picture.

Tokyo’s Aramco Moves – Analysis

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At the height of its asset bubble in the late 1980s, Tokyo boasted more than 100 foreign companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Since the bubble burst in the early 90s, that number has dwindled down to a measly six. With the Saudi national oil company, Aramco, preparing to list the overseas portion of its planned IPO, both Shinzo Abe and the Tokyo exchange have put out all the stops in hopes that the Saudis can be convinced to look past hot favorites London and New York and choose Japan. With a final decision due by the end of the year, can Japan really upset the world’s foremost stock exchanges?

The stakes could not be higher for everyone involved. Assuming a maximum valuation of $2 trillion for the company, the IPO (which would cover 5%, or up to $100 billion) has the potential to singlehandedly put Tokyo back on the map as a desirable destination for foreign companies. The Saudi government has taken several steps to boost the valuation over the past several months, clarifying the company’s non-oil activities and taking some liabilities off its hands.

While the Saudis focus on augmenting Aramco’s value, the Japanese government has actively tried to influence their deliberations over competing exchanges. The courtship began in September last year, when then-Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman travelled to Japan to meet with Abe. Since then, Riyadh has hosted a series of trips by officials from the TSE, although the visitors have had difficult questions to answer as to why the Saudis would choose a destination other foreign companies have abandoned in droves.

The Japanese responded by arguing that New York, London and Hong Kong are all dominated by the same large institutional investors. Tokyo, as Hidetoshi Nagata of the TSE argued to CNBC, offers a deep investor base as well as high-net worth individuals who add to available liquidity. Japanese officials tout the fact that Japan has become the Kingdom’s largest Asian market for its oil exports, in the hope that this will serve as a segue for the deeper integration of the two economies.

Tokyo has not been the only earnest bidder, though, and certainly has not been alone in throwing the weight of the government behind its entreaties. No suitor has been more willing to bend over backwards to win Aramco than London; indeed, the City has come in for unusually strong criticism for the lengths it has gone to in boosting its chances. Earlier this month, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority proposed new rules specifically tailored to state-owned companies (read: Aramco) that would allow them access to London’s premium listing regime. The new rules will ease a number of restrictions concerning transactions between the company and its state owner, facilitating the listing process.

While these bespoke rules were likely written to Aramco’s requirements, they also indicate a broader change in London’s strategic outlook. The UK looking to fashion new trade relationships to soften the blow of Brexit, regulators have recognized that new paths needs to be tread to ensure Britain retains its place as one of the world’s foremost finance centers. For the first time, the new listings regime targets state-owned firms directly, meaning that the London Stock Exchange has now effectively broadened its ability to cater to the interests of both state-owned and private entities, who differ significantly in their motivations and nature.

Japan will have a hard time matching this gesture, especially as the Japanese finance sector has traditionally been less receptive to energy companies. Investment activities have squarely focused on the tech sector, and the TSE’s policy of prioritizing tech companies led to a business strategy designed to facilitate the listing of tech start-ups for fundraising.

Geopolitics will also help Japan’s competitors, the British more than most. UK-Saudi relations already run deep, and Saudi Arabia is the UK’s biggest trading partner in the Middle East. Between them, the two kingdoms shared joint investments worth $13.8 billion in 2015. Since the Aramco listing is part of a broader set of economic diversification plans, Prime Minister Theresa May has been working hard to frame her country as a willing partner, and ensure that British companies are at the front of the line to take part in Saudi’s reform-driven economic restructuring.

As the British (and first female) leader to attend the Gulf Cooperation Council’s summit last December, May laid groundwork towards a future free trade deal and promising investments in infrastructure and healthcare. Within a week of triggering Article 50, she went back to the region accompanied by the LSE Chairman Xavier Rolet, expressly to make the case for London as the best location for the Aramco IPO.

It’s hard to see how Japan’s bid to win the Aramco listing can beat out competition from London and bourses better-suited to carry energy-related IPOs. Tokyo, though, has already come away from the broader economic changes in Saudi Arabia with a huge consolation prize: the Softbank Vision Fund. With this tie up between the Saudi sovereign wealth fund (PIF) and Softbank, the Japanese technology firm will be one of the world’s biggest tech investors over the coming years. The PIF will largely be financed with the proceeds of the Aramco privatization, meaning Japan will still have a major role to play – even without the listing.

* Robert Held is a financial consultant specializing in international finance and transnational tax law, and lives in Geneva, Switzerland.

China Looks Toward The Middle East – OpEd

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China is on the up and up. That is a truth universally recognized. Since initiating market reforms in 1978, China has shifted from a centrally-planned to a market-based economy, and has experienced rapid economic and social development. Growth has averaged nearly 10 percent a year – the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history – and has lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty. That rate of growth could scarcely be sustained indefinitely and may now be falling off a little, but the second quarter of 2017 still saw the Chinese economy advance by 6.9 percent. For comparison, US growth rate in 2016 was 1.6 percent, and the UK and Germany both grew by 1.8 percent.

This exponential economic growth raised within China’s elite the understandable desire to use it as a springboard for advancing China’s global political status. Thus was born in 2013 China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”. Introduced and promoted by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the “belt” refers to reinvigorating the old Silk Road economic belt, while the “road” relates to constructing a 21st century Maritime Silk Road. The aim of the initiative was to promote the economic prosperity of the countries along the Belt and Road, enhance regional economic cooperation, strengthen exchanges and mutual learning between different civilizations, and promote world peace and development.

By 2017 it had involved China underwriting billions of dollars of infrastructure investment in countries along the old Silk Road linking it with Europe. The ambition is immense. China is spending roughly $150 billion a year in the 68 countries that have signed up to the scheme. According to the Economist, Xi Jinping is seeking to dominate Eurasia and create an economic and trading area to rival the transatlantic one, dominated by the US.

In May 2017 Xi Jinping welcomed 28 heads of state and government to Beijing to celebrate the initiative. There were not many Western leaders among the guests. The EU’s reservations about China came to a head last year when EU lawmakers voted against China’s application for “market economy status”, which would have reduced possible penalties in anti-dumping cases. Steel was the sticking point: China’s huge production capacity has flooded world markets and threatened jobs, growth, and competitiveness.

As for the political implications of China’s initiative, the West has largely ignored them. While its attention has been focused elsewhere, President Xi has been pursuing his aim of achieving a global leadership role for China. Locked into his economic-based political agenda is a desire to make a mark in Middle East politics in general, and the Israeli-Palestinian dilemma in particular.

Back in May 2013, when the “Belt and Road” initiative was being finalised, both Palestinian Authority (PA) president, Mahmoud Abbas, and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, visited Beijing. Following hard on each other’s heels, Netanyahu stressed the large and growing commercial partnership between China and Israel, while Abbas encouraged China’s ambition to intervene in the Israeli-Palestinian issue, urging the Chinese leadership “to use its relationship with Israel to remove the obstacles that obstruct the Palestinian economy”.

As a result China proposed a four-point plan as the agenda for a dialogue, which it would host, between Abbas and Netanyahu. It called for the establishment of a Palestinian state on the basis of 1967 lines, respect for Israel’s right to exist and security concerns, halting settlement activities and violence against civilians, and international guarantees to advance the peace process. No such dialogue took place.

With the PA president back in Beijing in July 2017 for a state visit at Xi Jinping’s invitation, China’s four-point plan was back in play. Abbas praised China’s desire to resolve the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, and said he supported holding trilateral Chinese-Israeli- Palestinian meetings to move the peace process forward. The trilateral dialogue mechanism had been raised by President Xi Jinping in a closed-door meeting with Abbas. It is aimed at helping “coordinate and push forward key projects to assist Palestine”, according to a statement on the website of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

It does not have the feel of an initiative likely to take off. “We don’t even know if this will be an official dialogue or an unofficial one,” said Pan Guang, a professor at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. “But so far, I doubt if Israel would want any official involvement.”

The proposal of a three-way dialogue comes as Beijing steps up engagement, both diplomatic and economic, in the Middle East, a region Beijing views as critical in its trade and investment “Belt and Road” initiative. During his visit to the Middle East in January 2017, President Xi pledged $55 billion in investment and loans for the region. At the same time China remains in a cosy economic relationship with Israel, with a record $16.5 billion of Chinese investment in Israel last year.

There seems little escape from the perception that China is using its unprecedented and growing wealth to buy a leading role in the drama playing on the international stage. As in all international dealings, mixed motives can often be detected, though realpolitik is usually at the heart of affairs. Wang Lian, an international relations professor at Peking University, assumes China’s benevolent intentions.

“From China’s perspective,” he said, “economic measures could be more effective in connecting different parties in the Middle East, for example in the case of Syria where, as Islamic State falls, China’s involvement in the reconstruction could be more acceptable for both the government and the opposition.” Which may be true enough, if the other parties involved were inclined to step – or be pushed – aside to allow China space.

What is true for Syria in true for the Middle East generally. As for mediating an Israeli-Palestinian accord, China has to join the back of a line including the US, of course, but also Russia, France, the Arab League, and the EU.

Which is not to say that Chinese influence, backed by Chinese investment, and resting on ancient Chinese diplomatic skills, may not in the final analysis result in China being the mediator of choice.


Morocco : Accountability And Transparency Sole Path To Democratic Governance – OpEd

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“In a democracy, the principle of accountability holds that government officials — whether elected or appointed by those who have been elected — are responsible to the citizenry for their decisions and actions.”

Since King Mohammed IV’s recent strong-worded speech he addressed to the Moroccans on Throne Day, national, international political analysts and international media are still commenting and analyzing the Moroccan monarch’s discourse in which he slammed on Moroccan politicians and public officials for neglect of their duties, and failing to meet aspirations of the people.

King Mohammed VI warned that the “evolution” in politics and development “has not led to the kind of positive reaction” when dealing with the real aspirations and concerns of Moroccan people.

He affirmed that the development policies remain sound, while the problem lies with lagging mentalities, as well as with the inability in practicing and innovating.

“The practices of some elected officials induce a number of citizens, especially young people, to shun political life,” he deplored.

It is no secret that there remain many unanswered questions, but on one matter there is not an open question: The reforms initiated by King Mohammed should be greeted with gratitude and respect. At long last there is another model for the Arab future, one that Americans and Europeans should embrace wholeheartedly. It is true that there are still challenges ahead of the democracy path in Morocco but the most important is that Moroccans (civil society, political parties and most important youth) have made their irreversible choice to continue their peaceful struggle towards full democracy. Democracy, therefore in this part of the Arab region, is no more a myth. It is a reality.

It is generally known that in a democracy, the principle of accountability holds that government officials — whether elected or appointed by those who have been elected — are responsible before their constituents and all citizens with utterly no exception, for their decisions and actions. For officials to be held accountable, the principle of full transparency requires that the decisions and actions of those in government are open to public scrutiny and the public has a right to access government information. These are the core principles of democratic governance that will deny any to become arbitrary and self-serving. Without accountability and transparency, democracy is impossible.

Since the enthronement of King Mohammed VI in 1999, Morocco has made its irreversible choice : it will not end its process of democratization and will not move away from its friends and allies in the West. Morocco, as a strong, stable, and secure Islamic state will become a beacon for others and a model for those who choose to recognize the will of their people. Now, arguably for the first time in decades, there is an alternative to ideological repression in the Arab community. Morocco is not yet an exemplar of Jeffersonian liberalism, but it is on a path paved with democratic principles.

But a constitution and an election, while essential building blocks for democracy, are not in themselves dispositive. What counts is where the leaders want to take this North African nation. Will it move inexorably to democracy? Or will it backslide with pressure from other Arab states?

“It is high time this principle were implemented in full. Just as the law applies equally to all citizens, it must be applied, first and foremost, to all officials, without distinction or discrimination, and in all of the Kingdom’s regions,” King Mohammed VI stated in a firm tone, announcing “This is the dawn of a new era in which there is no difference between officials and citizens as far as civic rights and obligations are concerned; nor is there room for shirking responsibility or avoiding sanctions”.

“Morocco must come first: before political parties, before elections and before senior positions,” the Monarch insisted.

The royal speech was frank and strong -worded lambasting the Moroccan service civil for its poor governance and weak performance. It is no secret that the King is leading an administrative revolution and the responsibility of political parties in government will make Morocco stronger in facing any development. An administrative revolution that will prioterize public and national interest against personal or politicized ones. Only accountability and transparency will lead Morocco towards democratic governance.

Is Total Chaos The Middle Name Of The Middle East? – Analysis

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“Civilization is like a thin layer of ice upon a deep ocean of chaos and darkness.”Werner Herzog

“Hegemony is as old as Mankind.” — Zbigniew Brzezinski, former U.S. National Security Advisor

In December 2010, the Arabs, sick to death with the corrupt patriarchal and tribal regimes that ruled them since independence, took to the streets to express their discontent and to ask for democracy. Initially, nobody believed that such a movement would topple well-rooted dictatorships. But the anger quickly grew in size and scope and became a true tsunami that swept away the ruling dictators and with them the proverbial lethargy of Arab society.

The media quickly dubbed the successive uprisings “Arab Spring” but, alas, soon this became a mere wishful thinking as counter-revolution, civil war and chaos started to take the place of the much-desired democracy and freedom. Many countries of the Middle East have gone awry instead of initiating a fresh start in national democratic empowerment.

Creative or constructive chaos?

Chaos is coming to the Middle East in the aftermath of the failure of the so-called Arab Spring, and it is coming big. However, one wonders, quite rightly, that the chaos in question, brought about by the national chapters of the multinational of terrorism al-Qaeda and extremists of different Islamic colorations, is not the chaos prophesized or sown by President Bush Jr. and his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after the fall of Saddam’s Iraq ?

On this issue, Global Research writes:i

Secretary Condoleezza Rice stated during a press conference that “[w]hat we’re seeing here [in regards to the destruction of Lebanon and the Israeli attacks on Lebanon], in a sense, is the growing—the ‘birth pangs’—of a ‘New Middle East’ and whatever we do we [meaning the United States] have to be certain that we’re pushing forward to the New Middle East [and] not going back to the old one.”1Secretary Rice was immediately criticized for her statements both within Lebanon and internationally for expressing indifference to the suffering of an entire nation, which was being bombed  indiscriminately by the Israeli Air Force.

The very al-Qaeda that was felt out by the Arab uprisings three years ago and that was beheaded by The American military machinery when killing, in a daring operation executed by the Navy Seals in Abbotabbad, Pakistan, its charismatic leader Bin Laden.

Al-Qaeda is coming back with the promise of more death and chaos in the region. Bin Laden might be dead but the nihilist philosophy of the movement is still alive and kicking, thank you very much.
Al-Qaeda does not want a democratic Middle East because that would mean its demise, since it is a theocratic absurdity and not a democratic movement. It is a faceless beast that thrives on chaos and it has lethal dormant cells in this part of the world in addition to many sympathizers and followers worldwide.

During the unfolding of the Arab uprisings, al-Qaeda was totally absent from the scene, many commentators believed wrongly that it was a thing of the past especially after the decapitation of its leadership by the American government. But like the mythical sphinx it is resurrecting from its ashes strong and more dangerous than ever because it feeds on chaos and the Middle East is in the grip of chaos right now.

How did Chaos come to the region?

Actually, many analysts believe that chaos came to the region when the Tunisian vegetable seller Bouazizi set fire to his body, and by so doing igniting the Arab uprisings, but the truth of the matter is that the door to chaos was opened by the invasion of Kuwait undertaken by the megalomaniac pan-Arab dictator Saddam Hussein. At the height of his career, after the war with Iran, he believed strongly that he could do anything and get away with it, and since he owed so much money to Kuwait and was not ready to pay it back, he decided to rob the bank named Kuwait and settle the problem once for all.

For Beyond Today, a digital publication of United Church of God, the Middle East is a name that scares:ii

“Mention the words “Middle East,” and several other words come to mind— violence, bloodshed, hatred, instability, refugees and terrorism. In short, the Middle East scares us! For most of us outside the region, it’s hard to make sense of the huge changes in the Middle East in recent years—the Arab Spring, governments overthrown, dictators toppled, the never-ending wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, and the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL)”.

Thus, on July 1st, 1991, he sent his army into Kuwait on the ground that it was part of historical Iraq before the arrival of British colonialism. On discovering oil in this territory, the British decided to create a mini state to serve their purpose of controlling oil flow in the region, maybe Brunei Darussalam is a similar case in South East Asia, and even today Malaysia has not swallowed the bitter pill of the British creation of this small state out of its national territory.

More than 600 Kuwaiti oil wells were set on fire by retreating Iraqi forces, causing massive environmental and economic damage to Kuwait. Photo by Jonas Jordan, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Wikipedia Commons.
More than 600 Kuwaiti oil wells were set on fire by retreating Iraqi forces, causing massive environmental and economic damage to Kuwait. Photo by Jonas Jordan, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Wikipedia Commons.

By invading Kuwait and robbing its wealth, Saddam Hussein inadvertently opened the gates of hell on the region. Fearing the fact that emboldened by his act in this small country, he would sweep through Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf States; the West expected the worst and started preparations to counter his moves.

If Saddam had succeeded in controlling the Gulf States, he would have controlled the oil routes and the flow of this important commodity necessary for the whole world and especially for the developed countries whose economies rely on it heavily. Has this have happened, the world would have gone anew on a recession as in 1973 when the Arab countries imposed an oil embargo on the West following the Ramadan War.

So to avoid this happening again, the West moved quickly to put an end to the threat represented by Saddam to its interests and to the security of the friendly countries of the area. America armed with the resolutions of the United Nations, put together a large coalition of 34 countries to liberate Kuwait. The Gulf War I, codenamed Operation Desert Storm took place from 17 January 1991 to 28 February 1991, and the coalition, in no time, achieved the declared objectives of this campaign. The Iraqi army was defeated and expelled from Kuwait and the door of hell and chaos on the area was opened wide.

While most the armies of the coalition returned home after completing the assigned mission, American troops remained in the area to protect their allies and with them remained an unanswered question: why did not President Bush Sr. order the American troops to go in hot pursuit of Iraqi defeated soldiers? The answer is that such a project is another episode for which the US had a different agenda.

However, the Americans still, indirectly, encouraged the Shi’ites to rise against Saddam which they did in the southern provinces but their revolt was crushed in blood. It seems that the Americans when encouraging such a move had two things in mind, knowing better the demonic psychology of Saddam in addition to making Saddam regain confidence in his power after the defeat and, also, increase the enmity of the Shi’ites against his rule to utilize them appropriately in the second episode of the onslaught on his rule.

Following this bloody episode, the Shi’ites became the fifth column of the Americans by which they would prepare the final assault on Saddam Hussein and his eviction from power for ever. The Shi’ites role was not only to assist the Americans in their designs but also lead the country after the fall of Saddam, given that they are numerically a majority in the country and was always ruled by a Sunni minority.

In the interval to the Gulf War II of 2003, the Shi’ites helped the American intelligence community in preparing for this final chapter of war on Saddam. They were instrumental in collecting military and civilian data for use by the Americans and in training their troops to have access to power and usher in chaos in the region.

Chaos in post-Saddam Iraq

Statue of Saddam being toppled in Firdos Square after the invasion. Photo Credit: US MIlitary.
Statue of Saddam being toppled in Firdos Square after the invasion of Iraq. Photo Credit: US MIlitary.

After the toppling of Saddam, the power was offered constitutionally to the Shi’ites in Iraq as a reward for services rendered but, on the other hand, the Americans indirectly punished the Sunnis for their support of the Iraqi dictator. Realizing suddenly that they are a minority, the latter displayed openly their enmity to the Americans and resisted their master plan for dismembering Iraq along sectarian lines.

The insurgency of the Sunnis started in 2003 and is still going on today, it has climaxed with the Fallujah resistance to American troops in 2004 which was quelled in blood and it continued with Abu Musab Zarqawi, the emir of al-Qaeda that gave the Americans hard time before he was eliminated by an American drone strike.

Chaos is in Iraq to stay for many decades to come. It is in the North which is under the control of the Kurd Peshmerga but, also, in central Sunni Iraq and southern Shi’ite Iraq. Chaos is reigning supreme because of the enmity between Sunnis and Shi’ites that might break into a sectarian war that would engulf the whole Middle East anytime. The unfortunate sectarian and irresponsible policies of Nouri El Maliki, who, acts more like the head of Shi’ite party than a national Prime Minister with responsibility for all religious groups and for all Iraqis, are fanning the flames of such future war.

Chaos will, also, thrive in Iraq for a long time to come due to the actions of terrorist groups from either side or from political parties and from the government proper because there is so much bad blood between the different opponents and very little disposition to national willingness for forgiveness and unity. Last but not least, chaos will thrive in this country because of the sectarian strife in Syria, which is not showing any sign of abatement for the time being.

For Allen Pizzey from CBS News, Jihadist-bred chaos is spreading in Mideast in, general, and Iraq in, particular, and nothing will be able to stop it, for now, at least: iii

“In Iraq, the government is losing significant ground to al Qaeda militants. On Sunday, fighting in Anbar province killed 22 Iraqi soldiers and 12 civilians. This is happening as Syria’s civil war is spilling into Lebanon.

Ongoing chaos in the Middle East is creating what nature abhors and fanatics love: a power vacuum.
Al Qaeda affiliated gunmen have taken over the streets of Fallujah, a resurgence of the civil war that the U.S. invasion of Iraq sparked off.

In what now looks like a wasted effort, more than 100 U.S. Marines lost their lives in Fallujah in 2004 in a fight to drive the militants out and hand control to the Shiites who now run Iraq.

Today, the U.S. has no leverage other than backing the Iraqi government.

Secretary of State John Kerry, mired in the increasingly problematic Israeli-Palestinian peace deal, offered the Iraqis moral support.

“We’re not contemplating putting boots on the ground. This is their fight, but we’re going to help them in their fight,” Kerry said. “This is a fight that is bigger than just Iraq.””

Chaos in Syria

Syrian refugee center on the Turkish border 50 miles from Aleppo, Syria. Photo: Voice of America News: Henry Ridgwell, Wikipedia Commons.
Syrian refugee center on the Turkish border 50 miles from Aleppo, Syria. Photo: Voice of America News: Henry Ridgwell, Wikipedia Commons.

The Syrian discontent started in March 15, 2011, in the wake of the Arab uprisings which were labeled as Arab Spring. Initially, the protestors demanded more freedom and democracy from the Sh’ite Alaouit minority represented by the Ba’th Party of Bachar al-Assad. The government reacted violently killing dozens of protestors and by April it became a nationwide movement of revolt.

From a protest movement, the situation morphed into a military uprising and a political rejection of the Assad regime. The opposition coalition made of a myriad of political groups fielded a military resistance. Initially, the resistance scored many victories with the help of support from Saudi Arabia and the West and when everybody thought that the Assad regime was about to fall, the Russians brought military help in 2013 to Assad because his demise will mean for Moscow the end of its presence in the Middle East. This much-needed help came at the right time to give the regime a lease of life.

According to the United Nations, the death toll surpassed 100,000 in June 2013, and reached 120,000 by September 2013. In addition, tens of thousands of protesters, students, liberal activists and human rights advocates have been imprisoned and there are reports of widespread torture and terror in state prisons.

The Iranian government realizing that the fall of Assad would mean the loss of their last outpost and would put them directly in the fire line of America and Israel, instructed the fighters of the Lebanese Hizbu Allah and their own Revolutionary Guard to bolster the defenses of their Sh’ite ally Bashar al-Assad, but, in the meantime, the latter committed a grave political error by using his chemical weapons on his own people.

Saudi Arabia outraged by this unpardonable war crime, called on America to strike out of existence Bashar and his clique. But America sensing a change of heart on the part of Tehran over the nuclear issue, preferred not to punish Assad, Iran’s protégé.

The American move gave Assad confidence in the survival of his regime and his negotiators at the Geneva II summit of January 2014 showed that they were not ready to envisage a Syria without Assad, the sine qua non condition of the opposition. As result, chaos will continue in Syria reaping lives of innocent people and more Syrians will flee the country.

Chaos in Egypt: The Islamists take the unfortunate path of violence

The Egyptian revolution is undoubtedly the most dramatic episode of the so-called Arab Spring. It is almost like the famed Egyptians telenovelas that are screened by most Arab televisions on their release, which are fictions containing love, hate tears and revenge.

The Egyptian revolution or revolutions have been best described in an Op-Ed by the famous American journalist Thomas L. Friedman:iv

“If you’re looking for any silver lining in what is happening in Egypt today, suggest you go up 30,000 feet and look down. From that distance, the events in Egypt over the past two-and-a-half years almost make sense.  Egypt has actually had three revolutions since early 2011, and when you add them all up, you can discern a message about what a majority of Egyptians are seeking.

The first revolution was the Egyptian people and the Egyptian military toppling President Hosni Mubarak and installing the former defense minister, the aging Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, as the de facto head of state. Tantawi and his colleagues proved utterly incompetent in running the nation and were replaced, via a revolutionary election, by the Muslim Brotherhood’s party, led by President Mohamed Morsi. He quickly tried to consolidate power by decapitating the military and installing Brotherhood sympathizers in important positions. His autocratic, noninclusive style and failed economic leadership frightened the Egyptian center, which teamed up last month with a new generation of military officers for a third revolution to oust Morsi and the Brotherhood.

To put it all in simpler terms: Egypt’s first revolution was to get rid of the dead hand, the second revolution was to get rid of the deadheads and the third revolution was to escape from the dead end.”

It so seems the Egyptians don’t know what they really want. First they took to the streets in a very responsible manner to bring down the dictatorship of Mubarak and his clique, and in no time his police state crumbled down. The army realizing that the dictator is condemned to go, refused his order to shoot the demonstrators and instead opportunistically sided with them, thinking of their image and standing in the future given that this institution has always been a key player in Egyptian politics since independence.

An Egyptian soldier and tank in Tahrir Square, during the 2011 Egyptian Revolution.
An Egyptian soldier and tank in Tahrir Square, during the 2011 Egyptian Revolution.

Mubarak was overthrown; the army played the role of the nice guy and took over themselves to protect the people and the State and serve as the caretaker government to prepare free legislative and presidential elections.

The man of the street gave the army the green light to secure the state and the elections but the Muslim Brotherhood viewed the military with much suspicion, and this is true of all Islamists movements in the Arab world because they believe that such an institution is the den of secularists, enemies of their Islamic grand design within the area.

The Army organized the legislative elections that went to the Brotherhood and then the presidential elections that brought Morsi to the President’s office. The Brotherhood emboldened by two successive victories pictured themselves as depositories of the people’s will to set up an Islamic state in spite of the presence of a lethal enemy i.e. the army which is the ally of the Americans and the Israelis.

Nevertheless the Brotherhood had a long term plan to re-Islamize the country and the state and create an Islamic republic similar to the Iranian one, even in its military component.

Once in the President’s seat, Morsi set about to cleanse the army from the old Mubarak guard. His advisors suggested to put Sissi in the chief’s seat of the Army on the ground that he was docile and lacked fiery ambition of other army generals. However, the dream of Morsi and the Brothers was to have their own army, a copy of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to protect their revolution and keep an eye on the army proper.

The Brotherhood could have succeeded in achieving their objectives if Morsi proceeded gradually and carefully, but unfortunately for him, he moved on fast. His main deadly mistake was the imposition of the Islamic constitution, a logical prelude to the Islamic state in which the Brotherhood would play the key role.

Ghanouchi, Tunisian Ennahda’s Islamist party guide was more intelligent in delivering a constitution free of religious references that was welcomed by the majority of Tunisians and instructing his party people to hand the government to a group of technocrats to prepare for the post-constitution legislative and presidential elections, he wishes to win again. It might be the case that the intelligent move of Ghanouchi is the result of his life experience in Great Britain when in exile.

Fearing that Egypt would go Islamic, the Brotherhood way and threaten the stability of the whole region, the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel called on the army to take power. The secularists, at the instigation of the army circulated a petition nicknamed tamarrud “revolt,” the supporters of the initiative took to the streets calling on the army to take power, and thus the latter ousted Morsi and took control of the state.

For weeks the sympathizers of Morsi demonstrated in Rabia Adawiya square for what they called the return to legality but in vain, after weeks of uninterrupted sit-in, the army charged the Islamists killing dozens of them. This was the match that ignited the powder keg of chaos in Egypt.

Today, The Brotherhood has taken a different path that of terror, unfortunately. This will plunge Egypt in years of chaos and instability and the country will definitely loose so much in this venture: loose investment, loose business, loose tourism and loose Arab leadership and in return will gain nothing.

Things however, could go the other way if both sides, for the sake of stability, could have accepted to share power, the likelihood of this happening is, alas, nil because the army has the power and the Brotherhood has terror and both believe they are right and can advance their cause. How long the face-off will last, nobody knows?

Chaos in Libya

Libya, in few months, went from the dictatorship of a megalomaniac pan-Arab leader into the dictatorship of militias, Islamic in their majority and maybe with megalomaniac chiefs, yet again. What happened in fact is that Libya the state, feared for unpredictability and mega million dollars readied for all kind of causes worldwide suddenly went tribal, which means that in the end this country will break up into several provinces. Maybe it will be the first country to go from a country proper into tribal countries.

March 19, 2011 photo provided by the U.S. Navy shows the guided-missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) as it launches a Tomahawk missile in support of Operation Odyssey Dawn from the Mediterranean Sea. Photo: U.S. Navy, Fireman Roderick Eubanks
March 19, 2011 photo provided by the U.S. Navy shows the guided-missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) as it launches a Tomahawk missile in support of Operation Odyssey Dawn from the Mediterranean Sea. Photo: U.S. Navy, Fireman Roderick Eubanks

In Libya, there is a government that has, on paper, a police and an army, but this government exists only in Tripoli, outside of the capital, the country is ruled by the militias. Actually, the Libyan example is very close to the Somali experience. If the government fails in the months to come to assert its power on all the Libyan territory, the country will become de facto Somalia II, in the area. In principle, Libya is already another Somalia, the militias, in certain parts of the country, are already selling oil to foreign companies and pocketing the money to use for their own needs. Soon, these militias, if they have not already done that, will have their own government that will contest the decisions of the paper government of Tripoli.

Post-Qaddafi Libya is bent on becoming three countries or more, if nothing is done on the part of the Tripoli paper government. Indicators show that it is slowly fragmenting in three countries: Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan. The only bold initiative that could ultimately reverse this motion is the creation of a federal government that would delegate home affairs to local governments. Will the Libyan political class opt for that or go the way of the irreversible fragmentation?

The Somalization is looming over the Arab Spring countries

In conclusion, one can say that The Arab Spring has or is going the wrong way, instead of delivering the much-needed democracy and social justice; it is triggering the fragmentation of countries like Iraq, Syria, Libya and Egypt and possibly setting up a Somali-type of Scenarios.

Iraq, though not a fully Arab Spring country is de facto three countries: the Shi’ites in the south, the Sunnis in the center and the Kurds in the north. Iraq will never regain its unity for Nouri El- Maliki is not doing anything to keep the country united. For many Sunnis, his aim is to have Iraq or the Shi’ite provinces join Iran. However, though Iran would want that, it will be dangerous for the country to accept it in the sense that such an act would encourage the Kurds to create their own country and their own Kurd brethren of Iran and Turkey would want to join the new entity, so this could start the dismembering of Iran itself and problems for the whole region.v

So far, the only countries that seem to be escaping the scenario of Somalization are: Tunisia that has produced a progressive constitution and also Yemen. If everything goes as planned, these two countries might become democratic in the full sense of the word and save the Arab Spring from total bankruptcy, but only time can tell.

Final thought

For Global Research, chaos in the Middle East is the ultimate responsibility of the Western world that wants to control the region and benefit from its resources in the best way possible. The inherent tensions of the region have been adroitly exploited to suit the “Anglo-American-Israeli agendas” and democracy has not been forcefully pushed in the countries that are subservient to American interests:vi

“The overhaul, dismantlement, and reassembly of the nation-states of the Middle East have been packaged as a solution to the hostilities in the Middle East, but this is categorically misleading, false, and fictitious. The advocates of a “New Middle East” and redrawn boundaries in the region avoid and fail to candidly depict the roots of the problems and conflicts in the contemporary Middle East. What the media does not acknowledge is the fact that almost all major conflicts afflicting the Middle East are the consequence of overlapping Anglo-American-Israeli agendas.

Many of the problems affecting the contemporary Middle East are the result of the deliberate aggravation of pre-existing regional tensions. Sectarian division, ethnic tension and internal violence have been traditionally exploited by the United States and Britain in various parts of the globe including Africa, Latin America, the Balkans, and the Middle East. Iraq is just one of many examples of the Anglo-American strategy of “divide and conquer.” Other examples are Rwanda, Yugoslavia, the Caucasus, and Afghanistan.

Amongst the problems in the contemporary Middle East is the lack of genuine democracy which U.S. and British foreign policy has actually been deliberately obstructing.  Western-style “Democracy” has been a requirement only for those Middle Eastern states which do not conform to Washington’s political demands. Invariably, it constitutes a pretext for confrontation. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan are examples of undemocratic states that the United States has no problems with because they are firmly aligned within the Anglo-American orbit or sphere.”

So, in conclusion, the so-called friends and allies of the Middle East would prefer perpetual chaos in the region to remain in control of the destinies of its people and the riches of its land. A clear manifestation of neo-colonialism.

You can follow Professor Mohamed Chtatou on Twitter: @Ayurinu

Endnotes:

Words Can Kill – OpEd

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Michelle Carter has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in prison for encouraging her boyfriend, Conrad Roy III, to kill himself. Her lawyer argued this was, at least in part, a free speech case, but Judge Lawrence Moniz was not persuaded: he ruled she was guilty of involuntary manslaughter after texting dozens of messages beckoning Roy to commit suicide.

There are several moral and legal issues involved in this case; they have  grave implications for the First Amendment and right-to-die matters. From a Catholic perspective, the latter issue is the most crucial. But free speech is also important, and cannot be breezily dismissed.

Can words kill? Some civil libertarians say it is preposterous. Indeed, Carter’s lawyer, Joseph Cataldo, said, “This is clearly just speech. There was no physical action taken by Michelle Carter in connection with the death. It was just words alone.”

Here’s a scenario worth considering. A white racist speaks at a rally,  getting his angry followers all ginned up. He spots a black man walking by, and then urges his audience to “get that guy and kill him.” They do.

Is this free speech? No. It constitutes incitement to riot. No competent judge would ever say that this speech is covered by the First Amendment. So, yes, words can kill.

Treasonous speech may also kill. Moreover, there is no constitutional right to solicit a murder over the Internet.

The question in the Carter case is whether her words are responsible for Roy’s suicide.

Carter did not simply send one text to Roy encouraging him to kill himself: She spent two weeks laboring him to do so. He finally complied, driving to a mall parking lot, filling his truck with carbon monoxide from a generator, and waiting for it to overwhelm him.

We know that Roy called Carter while the truck was filled with fumes. At one point he had second thoughts and exited the car, but Carter pleaded with him to get back in and finish the job. Judge Moniz noted that she “can hear him coughing and can hear the loud noise of the motor.” That is why he said her role “constituted wanton and reckless conduct…where there was a high degree of likelihood that substantial harm would arise to Mr. Roy.”

The texts Carter sent are chilling. Here is an excerpt (no grammatical changes have been made). The exchange begins after Conrad Roy confesses that he is hesitant about ending his life.

Carter: “You are so hesitant because you keeping over thinking it and keep pushing it off. You just need to do it, Conrad. The more you push it off, the more it will eat at you. You’re ready and prepared. All you have to do is turn the generator on and you will be free and happy. No more pushing it off. No more waiting.”

Conrad: “You’re right.”

Carter: “If you want it as bad as you say you do it’s time to do it today.”

Conrad: “Yup. No more waiting.”

Carter: “Okay. I’m serious. Like you can’t even wait ’till tonight. You have to do it when you get back from your walk….Always smile, and yeah, you have to just do it. You have everything you need. There is now way you can fail. Tonight is the night. It’s now or never….[D]on’t be scared. You already made this decision and if you don’t do it tonight you’re gonna be thinking about it all the time and stuff all the rest of your life and be miserable….You’re finally going to be happy in heaven. No more pain. No more bad thoughts and worries. You’ll be free.”

Is there freedom in death? To the proponents of euthanasia, this is certainly true. Was it really true for Conrad, a clinically depressed young man? Does it matter that vulnerable people like him can easily be seduced by such appeals? Was not Conrad exploited?

This case involves issues that transcend these two persons. Does society have a right to intervene by dissuading those who are suicidal from succeeding? Cops, representing the public, involve themselves all the time: some are trained to stop jumpers. Indeed, we put up with traffic snarls on bridges to allow these cops to do their job. Why? Because we, as a society, believe that suicide is wrong. If this is the case, how can we blithely disregard the role of suicide enablers?

The ACLU is smart enough to know that Carter’s conviction may work against its efforts to support euthanasia. The Massachusetts chapter director, Matthew Segal, knows what is at stake. “If allowed to stand, Ms. Carter’s conviction could chill important and worthwhile end-of-life discussions between loved ones across the Commonwealth.”

From a Catholic perspective, Carter’s conviction may also put the brakes on doctors and insurance agents, as well as family members and friends, who have an extrinsic motive to put down a troubled person. In this case, Carter’s role was so obvious that it is hard to write her conduct off as purely a matter of free speech.

Martin W. Healy is the chief counsel of the Massachusetts Bar Association. Here is what he had to say about this case. “The defendant’s fate was sealed through the use of her own words. The communications illustrated a deeply troubled defendant whose actions rose to the level of wanton and reckless disregard for the life of the victim.”

Interestingly, Carter herself agrees. Three months after Conrad’s death, she sent a text to a friend saying, “his death is my fault, like honestly I could have stopped him. I was on the phone with him and he got out of the car because it was working and he got scared and I f***ing told him to get back in [the truck].” He did, and that is why he is dead.

Words matter. They can even kill.

Trump And Macron Discuss Syria, Iraq, Venezuela And North Korea

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US President Donald J. Trump spoke on the telephone Friday with President Emmanuel Macron of France to explore how to increase cooperation in addressing the ongoing crises in Syria and Iraq and countering Iranian malign influence.

According to the White House, the two leaders also talked about forging a political resolution in Libya and countering terrorist activity in the Sahel region of Africa.

Additionally, the White House said, the two agreed that the Maduro regime in Venezuela must restore the rights of the Venezuelan people and reaffirmed the importance of all sides implementing the Minsk agreements to reach a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.

Finally, they discussed mutual interests regarding North Korea, the White House said, although no further details were released.

Brexit And The Spirit Of Dunkirk – OpEd

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By Amir Taheri*

For the past two weeks, “Dunkirk” has topped the box office in cinemas throughout the UK. The film is a fictional rendition of the British evacuation from the French port of Dunkirk in May 1940, as Hitler’s invading divisions blitzed their way toward Paris. The evacuation involved more than 400,000 soldiers, including many Frenchmen and troops recruited in British Empire units such as Canada and Australia.

The greatest retreat in the history of warfare prevented the Germans from annihilating the bulk of the British military, giving London the chance to prepare to fight another day. At first glance, there was little heroism in such a vast force fleeing without fighting; armies usually retreat after they have fought and lost a battle.

Yet what came to be known as “the spirit of Dunkirk” was truly heroic as thousands of ordinary Brits, defying Hitler’s vast war machine, made their way to the French port — often aboard small fishing boats, dinghies and even a few floating bathtubs — to help bring the stranded soldiers back to England.

Over the following decades, “the spirit of Dunkirk” came to indicate a key characteristic of the British: Fighting when their backs are to the wall.

So unsurprisingly, those who campaigned for Brexit last year have seized on the excitement created by the new film to inject some heroism in their narrative. “Yes,” they say, “Britain is heading for tough times outside the EU, but helped by the spirit of Dunkirk, it shall overcome all hurdles.” One leading Brexit campaigner has even demanded that the film be shown in schools to boost the morale of the young whose lives will be most affected by leaving the EU.

But it is hard to draw a parallel between Brexit and Dunkirk, if only because the EU cannot be equated with Nazi Germany. Nor was the UK at war with the EU, an alliance of democratic nations whose latest version Britain played a leading role in creating. For Brits in Dunkirk, it was a matter of life and death. But regarding the EU, Britain enjoyed membership in the world’s biggest economic bloc alongside most of its NATO allies.

Brexit advocates cite four reasons for the UK to leave. The first is “regaining lost national sovereignty.” But in its White Paper published earlier this year, the government declared that Britain never lost sovereignty. EU membership meant sharing, not losing sovereignty.

Britain already shares sovereignty in many international and regional organizations, including NATO, the UN, the Commonwealth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. If sharing sovereignty is equated with its loss, the UK should withdraw from more than 120 organizations, something even North Korea has not done.

In any case, EU membership involves sharing sovereignty on a limited number of issues linked to commerce, industrial standards, agriculture and working conditions. It does not extend to taxation and interest rates, let alone national security, defense and foreign policy. The fact that Britain can leave the EU or any other international organ of which it is a member shows that shared sovereignty does not mean loss of sovereignty.

The second reason cited by Brexiteers, “control of borders,” is equally bogus. Anyone entering the UK knows they must show a passport or identity card and be formally admitted into the country. EU citizens have the right to enter the territory of any member state without a visa to visit, look for a job, study or simply reside.

But under the 2007 Treaty of Lisbon, they cannot stay beyond three months unless they can prove they have a job, are in fulltime education or have independent means of support. Member states can, and in many cases do, expel EU citizens who do not fulfil the stated conditions.

The third bogus claim is about “rule by unelected officials in Brussels.” The Council of Ministers is the EU’s main decision-making and legislative body, and is composed of ministers from member states, all of whom are democratically elected. It forms the union’s legislative body together with the European Parliament, which is also directly elected by voters in all member states.

When it comes to the so-called “Brussels bureaucracy,” it is necessary to remember that it is composed of individuals appointed by elected governments of member states, in the same way civil servants are appointed in each country with clear patterns of accountability. There is nothing that the “Brussels bureaucracy” can do without the approval of the governments of member states and their parliaments.

The final reason cited by Brexiteers is the claim that the UK, outside the EU, would be better able to make trade deals with the rest of the world. But the UK is already trading with more than 190 countries, many of which have full or partial trade deals with the EU that the UK has played a key role in shaping.

It is not because of EU membership that the UK is exporting to the US half as much as Germany does. The reason is that Germans produce goods that Americans want to buy and the Brits do not, because the UK has specialized in service industries at the expense of manufacturing. Being in or out of the EU need not alter that fact.

There are no objective reasons to necessitate Brexit, whereas the Dunkirk retreat was an inescapable necessity. But regarding Brexit, it would be foolish to ignore the subjective, emotional factors. Many Brits feel there are too many foreigners in their country, and blame EU citizens for declining standards in their National Health Service, shortage of affordable housing, pressure on schools and even traffic jams.

Dunkirk was about running away only to return. Will Brexit repeat that?

Amir Taheri was executive editor in chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications and published 11 books. — Originally published in Asharq Al-Awsat.

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