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Ocean Exploration Uncovers One Of Cuba’s Hidden Natural Treasures

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A research mission led by Florida Atlantic University’s Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute has uncovered details of one of Cuba’s hidden natural treasures. After nearly two years of planning, a team of scientists from the United States and Cuba has explored never-before-studied mesophotic coral reefs during a month-long circumnavigation of the entire coast of Cuba, which spans about 1,500 miles (2,729 kilometers).

Except for a few places along the coast, prior to this expedition, there were virtually no data or charts indicating what was beyond the shallow reef zone. At every dive site, the scientists discovered mesophotic reefs, which they documented from depths of 150 meters up to 30 meters.

Forty-three dives using a remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV) as well as snorkeling excursions have resulted in almost 20,000 underwater photographs, a collection of more than 500 marine plants and animals and 100 hours of high definition video. In addition to documenting these mesophotic reefs for the first time, important discoveries included numerous new species of sponges and range extensions or depth records for several species of corals, gorgonians, sponges, algae and fish. They documented 123 species of fish, including numerous grouper and snapper on the mesophotic reefs. The invasive lionfish, which often number in the hundreds on mesophotic reefs off southwestern Florida, was present in relatively lower abundance at the study sites in Cuba. Some sites had coral abundances, rivaling the highest known coral densities in the Caribbean.

“This expedition would not have been so successful without the hard work and collaboration of all the scientists from Cuba and the United States who participated in the cruise,” said John K. Reed, chief scientist and research professor at FAU’s Harbor Branch. “We were thrilled to discover that overall, the majority of the mesophotic reefs that we explored are very healthy and nearly pristine compared to many reefs found in the U.S. We saw little evidence of coral disease or coral bleaching, and evidence of human impact was limited to some lost long lines at some of the sites. Our biggest concern, however, is that we saw few large grouper.”

Using the University of Miami’s Research Vessel F.G. Walton Smith as a platform for daily dives with the NOAA Marine Sanctuaries Foundation’s Mohawk ROV, scientists from the U.S. and Cuba specializing in corals, sponges, algae and fish logged thousands of dive notes, underwater photos and video, documenting the geomorphology, biological zonation and diversity of marine organisms.

Many of the mission’s ROV dives took place in or directly adjacent to Cuba’s extensive network of marine protected areas (MPAs), providing an opportunity to explore locations for potential creation of new MPAs or expansion of existing boundaries. Oceanographic data and water samples also were collected daily to evaluate seawater chemistry, patterns of water circulation and potential connectivity between Cuban reefs and those in the U.S.

Approximately 22 percent of the Cuban shelf is designated as MPAs, and many of the dives on this expedition were within these MPAs. During this expedition, the scientists identified at least four sites they believe should receive MPA status that are not currently protected. Some of these sites had dense cover of corals or populations of grouper and snapper, which may indicate spawning aggregations and Essential Fish and Coral Habitat.

“This expedition was a very successful collaboration between numerous institutions, universities and scientists,” said Anton Post, Ph.D., executive director of FAU’s Harbor Branch. “These new discoveries will provide important documentation on the density of corals and fish in Cuba and ultimately determine the genetic connectivity of their corals and those collected from the U.S. Flower Gardens Bank and Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuaries.”


Energy Dense Foods May Increase Cancer Risk Regardless Of Obesity Status

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Diet is believed to play a role in cancer risk. Current research shows that an estimated 30% of cancers could be prevented through nutritional modifications. While there is a proven link between obesity and certain types of cancer, less is known about how the ratio of energy to food weight, otherwise known as dietary energy density (DED), contributes to cancer risk.

To find out, researchers looked at DED in the diets of post-menopausal women and discovered that consuming high DED foods was tied to a 10% increase in obesity-related cancer among normal weight women. Their findings are published in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics.

DED is a measure of food quality and the relationship of calories to nutrients. The more calories per gram of weight a food has, the higher its DED. Whole foods, including vegetables, fruits, lean protein, and beans are considered low-DED foods because they provide a lot of nutrients using very few calories. Processed foods, like hamburgers and pizza, are considered high-DED foods because you need a larger amount to get necessary nutrients. Previous studies have shown that regular consumption of foods high in DED contributes to weight gain in adults.

In order to gain a better understanding of how DED alone relates to cancer risk, researchers used data on 90,000 postmenopausal women from the Women’s Health Initiative including their diet and any diagnosis of cancer. The team found that women who consumed a diet higher in DED were 10% more likely to develop an obesity-related cancer, independent of body mass index. In fact, the study revealed that the increased risk appeared limited to women who were of a normal weight at enrollment in the program.

“The demonstrated effect in normal-weight women in relation to risk for obesity-related cancers is novel and contrary to our hypothesis,” explained lead investigator Cynthia A. Thomson, PhD, RD, Professor of Health Promotion Sciences at the University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health in Tucson, AZ. “This finding suggests that weight management alone may not protect against obesity-related cancers should women favor a diet pattern indicative of high energy density.”

Although restricting energy dense foods may play a role in weight management, investigators found that weight gain was not solely responsible for the rise in cancer risk among normal weight women in the study. They hypothesize that the higher DED in normal-weight women may cause metabolic dysregulation that is independent of body weight, which is a variable known to increase cancer risk.

While further study is needed to understand how DED may play a role in cancer risk for other populations such as young people and men, this information may help persuade postmenopausal women to choose low DED foods, even if they are already at a healthy body mass index.

“Among normal-weight women, higher DED may be a contributing factor for obesity-related cancers,” concluded Dr. Thomson. “Importantly, DED is a modifiable risk factor. Nutrition interventions targeting energy density as well as other diet-related cancer preventive approaches are warranted to reduce cancer burden among postmenopausal women.”

What Does Indonesia’s Renaming Of Part Of South China Sea Signify? – Analysis

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By Leo Suryadinata*

On 14 July 2017 Deputy Minister of Maritime Affairs Arif Havas Oegroseno officially launched the new map of the Republic of Indonesia, pointing out that the Natuna Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) has been renamed as “Laut Natuna Utara” (North Natuna Sea). The area is part of the South China Sea. Moreover, The Natuna EEZ lies partially within China’s “Nine-Dash Line”, which has not been recognized by Indonesia.

The new map, prepared over nine months from October 2016, was signed by 21 Indonesian ministers and state agencies.1

Havas explained that the renaming is being done for two reasons: First, it is to prevent confusion among exploiters on the continental shelf as regards territorial sovereignty; and second, to provide clear guidelines to the Law Enforcement Team of the Indonesian Navy. However, as Indonesia did not consult its immediate neighbours in preparing the updated map,2 the new maritime boundaries as reflected on the map may be disputed in the future.

Havas claimed that “we don’t have a territorial dispute with China,” and that the renaming is quite normal. Yet he added that “Indonesia will not negotiate with countries who claim sovereignty without reference to the UNCLOS.”3

The Foreign Ministry of China in its regular press conference responded to this renaming. Its spokesman Geng Shuang noted:

The so-called change of name makes no sense at all and is not conducive to … the international standardization of the name of places. We hope [the] relevant country can work with China for shared goals and jointly uphold the current hard-won sound situation in the South China Sea.4

The response of China can be regarded as quite moderate as it does not mention the name of the country it involves. It also suggests that that country (read: Indonesia) should maintain the status quo since that situation is “sound”, and both countries have shared goals. This is clearly different from the usual “protests” usually issued by Beijing.
Several questions can be asked about the intention of the Joko Widodo administration in renaming part of the South China Sea, the response of China to the renaming, and the two countries’ positions on the South China Sea in general and the Natuna waters in particular.

ORIGINS OF RENAMING AND INDONESIAN HISTORY

Indonesia began to focus its attention on the Natuna waters on 19 March when a Chinese fishing vessel encroached into Natuna waters and was arrested by an Indonesian patrol boat. However, a Chinese patrol vessel quickly appeared and intervened to free the Chinese fishing boat. The Indonesian Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries announced this episode to the press and protested to Beijing. Beijing’s Foreign Ministry responded by stating that the Chinese fishermen were doing their regular work on their “traditional fishing ground”. Prior to the Joko Widodo presidency, China’s fishing vessel incursions issues were quietly handled as a rule.5 Apparently his Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, Susi Pudjiastuti, decided to pursue a new policy.

The incident immediately became a national issue and Indonesian public opinion became hostile toward China. China quickly quietly sent an envoy to settle the issue and the Joko Widodo administration responded favourably.6 However, on 27 May 2016, about two months after the incident, there was another incursion. Jakarta protested while Beijing responded using the same argument. Joko Widodo was forced to show that he was serious about defending Indonesia’s sovereignty. He visited Natuna in a naval warship with a few of his cabinet ministers and also had a limited cabinet meeting on the warship.7 The Indonesian parliament discussed the Natuna issue and approved the budget for developing a military base in Natuna. On 17 June 2016, there was yet another incursion but this time the Indonesian navy was well prepared and succeeded in detaining the China’s fishing vessel.8

In fact, illegal fishing was a very serious issue in Indonesia even before these incidents. Minister Susi Pudjiastuti had established a task force called Satuan Tugas Anti-Illegal Fishing (SATGAS IF) in December 2014 to deal with it. Mas Achmad Santosa, a leading environmental law expert, was appointed as its chairman.9 On 19 October 2015, Jokowi issued Presidential decree no.115/2015 to form a task force known as SATGAS 115 [Satuan Tugas Pemberantasan Penangkapan Ikan Secara Ilegal (Illegal Fishing)] to combat illegal fishing in Indonesian territorial waters.10 The task force includes, among others, the Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, the Navy and the Attorney-General.

The task force was behind the capture and sinking of many foreign fishing vessels by August 2016. On 18 August 2016, Achmad Santosa proposed renaming part of the South China Sea within the EEZ of Indonesia as Laut Natuna (Natuna Sea).11 He even noted that he would send a formal proposal to the United Nations. The proposal was supported by the Natuna authorities, including Natuna mayor Hamid Rizal.

A week later, a reporter asked Luhut Pandjaitan, the Coordinating Minister of Indonesian Maritime Affairs (Menko Kemaritiman), who was then in Batam to officiate the opening of a new hospital, about the name change. Luhut noted that there was Natuna Sea on Indonesian maps which is within Indonesian waters. The northern part of Natuna which is Indonesia’s EEZ should be called “North Natuna Sea”.12 Nevertheless, Luhut stated that the naming was still under study and no final decision had been made.

Apparently, it took almost one year for the Task Force to publish the results of the study. The Indonesian government would register not only the new name for the sea but also names for 1,106 unnamed islands belonging to Indonesia.13 Both Deputy Minister Havas and Coordinating Minister Luhut stated that it is normal for a country to name or rename places within its own territories.

Indeed Indonesia has a history of renaming places. During the Sukarno era, Indonesia renamed several islands. In May 1963 when West New Guinea was “returned” to Indonesia by the Dutch, Sukarno named New Guinea Island as Irian, and the Indonesian part as West Irian.14 But international maps continued to call the island “New Guinea”.15 During the Confrontation against Malaysia (1963-66), Sukarno named the whole of Borneo “Kalimantan” but international maps continued to call the island Borneo and the Indonesian part as Kalimantan.16

Also during the Sukarno era, part of the Indian Ocean near Indonesia was changed to Samudera Indonesia (Indonesian Ocean) but internationally, the name Indian Ocean continues to be used for the whole ocean. It is still not clear if the UN and the international community will accept the Indonesian renaming of part of the South China Sea.

WHY RENAME?

The factors that led to the renaming of part of South China Sea are complex but judging from the nature of Indonesian attempts to pacify domestic opposition and promote nationalism there are basically two reasons. The Jokowi government has from the outset been considered “pro-Beijing”, and relied too much on China, especially in terms of investments and loans. The opposition groups, especially radical Islamic groups, are anti- PRC and distrustful of ethnic Chinese Indonesians. Some even spread fake news about Chinese labourers and migrants coming to Indonesia. However, the rise of China and its assertiveness in the South China Sea, especially in view of various incursions into the Indonesian EEZ, forced the Jokowi government to take tougher action. The military base in Natuna was established and the exercise to rename part of the South China Sea was launched.

The renaming is also a signal to China of the seriousness of Indonesia’s concerns about the sovereignty of its EEZ around the Natunas. A leading academic at the University of Indonesia, Hikmahanto Juwana, noted that the renaming was “a move to step up Jakarta’s stance against Beijing’s claim on the Natuna Waters”.17 Another academic from the University of Gadjah Mada, I Made Andi Arsana, also argued that “the renaming carried no legal force but was a political and diplomatic statement.” 18 Although Beijing had “protested” against the renaming, the Jakarta Post was of the view that Indonesia-China’s “bilateral ties are too big to fail”.19

VIEWS OF INDONESIA AND CHINA ON THE NATUNA WATERS

Indeed, both parties appear to know each other’s position on the Natuna waters. China has been more assertive in the South China Sea after Xi Jinping became the president of the PRC, and it continues to use the “nine-dash-line” to claim sovereignty over 90 percent of the Sea. When there was a conflict over the fishing vessels in the Natuna waters, however, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry did not invoke the nine-dash line, and instead used the term “traditional fishing grounds” when responding to Indonesia.

It seems that China does not want to push Indonesia into a corner and wants to avoid turning Indonesia hostile because that would harm not only Beijing’s security interests but also its politico-economic interests. Beijing’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, which is part of the OBOR initiative, needs close co-operation of Indonesia.

The Jokowi government has also been conciliatory towards China. It also echoes Beijing’s claim that there is no territorial dispute between Indonesia and China in the SCS. It assumes hat since the Natuna Islands have been recognized by Beijing as Indonesian territories, its EEZ based on UNCLOS would also belong to Indonesia. It therefore uses the illegal fishing issue to deal with Chinese fishing vessels. Jakarta needs economic aid and investment from Beijing, especially for its infrastructure projects, and Chinese tourists to increase its national income.

As long as Beijing observes the bottom line that the Natuna Islands and their EEZ belong to Indonesia, Jakarta-Beijing relations should remain peaceful. Indeed, in the last 10 months after the Chinese fishing vessel incursions, no further similar incident in the Natuna waters has been reported.

The renaming of Natuna Waters may irritate Beijing but Beijing understands that it will not change the status quo. It seems that Beijing also understands that the renaming is a reflection of domestic Indonesian nationalism, which is strategically important to Jokowi’s government.

About the author:
* Leo Suryadinata
is Visiting Senior Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Source:
This article was published by ISEAS as ISEAS Perspective 2017 No. 64 (PDF)

Notes:
1 Marguerite Afra Sapiie, “New Map asserts sovereignty over Natuna”, Jakarta Post, 15 July 2017, p.1.
2 ibid..
3 ibid..
4 http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/fyrth/t1477975.htm (Accessed 18 July 2017)
5 Rizal Sukma, “Indonesia and China Need to Combat the IUU Problem, Jakarta Post, 31 March 2016.
6 For a discussion on these events, see Leo Suryadinata, “Did the Natuna Incident Shake Indonesia-China Relations? “ISEAS Perspective, No.19 (26 April 2016).
7 Leo Suryadinata and Mustafa Izzuddin, “Nationalistic Symbolism Behind the “Natuna Sea”, Straits Times, 9 September 2016.
8 See Leo Suryadinata and Mustafa Izzuddin , “The Natunas: Territorial Integrity in the Forefront of Indonesia-China Relations”, Trends in Indonesia, 2017 no. 5, pp. 1-2.
9 http://citraindonesia.com/mas-achmad-santosa-ketua-satgas-illegal-fishing/ (Accessed 21 July 2017)
10 http://setkab.go.id/prihatin-pencurian-ikan-presiden-jokowi-bentuk-satgas-pemberantasan- illegal-fishing/ (Accessed 21 July 2017)
11 https://www.voaindonesia.com/a/indonesia-berencana-ubah-nama-jadi-laut-natuna- /3470588.html (accessed 20 July 2017).
12 http://www.antaranews.com/berita/581111/luhut-penamaan-laut-natuna-utara-masih-proses (accessed 26 July 2017)
13 https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20170117140515-20-186924/pemerintah-siapkan- nama-1106-pulau-untuk-dibawa-ke-pbb/ (Accessed 18/7/2017)
14 Robert Cribb, Historical Atlas of Indonesia, Surrey, U.K., 2000, p.167. After 2001, the Indonesian name has been changed to Papua. See Robert Cribb and Audrey Kahin, Historical Dictionary of Indonesia. 2nd Edition, Lanham, Maryland: The Scarescrow Press, 2004, p.165. 15 The Times Atlas of the World, London: Times Newspapers Ltd, 1968, “The Pacific Ocean”, p.122; In the 1987 edition, the name for the whole island is still New Guinea, p.122.
16 The Times Atlas of the World, London: Times Newspapers Ltd, 1968, “The Pacific Ocean”, p.122.
17 Marguerite Afra Sapiie, “New Map asserts sovereignty over Natuna”, Jakarta Post, 15 July 2017, p.1.
18 Indonesia renames part of South China Sea”, Straits Times, 15 July 2017, p.16.
19 “What’s in a name?”, Jakarta Post’s editorial, 18 July 2017, p. 6.

The Need For Corporate Tax Reform – OpEd

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The United States has one of the highest corporate income tax rates in the world. While both the Obama administration and Trump administration have criticized American companies for moving operations off-shore, and considered a variety of policies for punishing them if they do. A better approach would be to design policies that make it attractive for all corporations to locate their operations in the United States.

One way to do that would be to lower the corporate tax rate. While the current 35% rate is high, many corporations pay minimal income taxes because the overly-complex tax code has so many loopholes. Eliminate them to simplify the tax code and make more revenue subject to tax, and lower the corporate rate to 22%. I’m suggesting 22% because in an earlier post I suggested a 22% personal income tax rate, and it’s good tax policy to set the personal and corporate rates at the same level so corporate income is neither favored nor disfavored by the tax system relative to personal income.

Despite there being a good case for eliminating all deductions and loopholes in the corporate tax structure, I’d argue for enlarging two.

First, corporate dividends should be deducted from taxable income. They are paid to individuals who pay individual income taxes on them, and this would eliminate a double tax. Interest payments are already deductible. Why shouldn’t dividends be treated the same way?

Second, allow corporations to expense all of their investment expenditures. Currently, they are depreciated, with complex rules that set up a host of different depreciation schedules. Their tax accounting is unnecessarily complicated, and depreciation for tax purposes is largely unrelated to the actual depreciation in the value of their assets. On the whole, expensing depreciation is revenue-neutral, although compared to the existing tax structure it would convey a tax advantage to expanding companies and a tax disadvantage to contracting companies. This is likely to be beneficial to the economy as a whole, however.

When thinking about corporate tax reform, the ultimate goal should be to design a system that attracts corporations to the United States rather than repelling them.

This article was published by The Beacon

Older Users Like To Snoop On Facebook – But Worried Others Snooping On Them

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Older adults are drawn to Facebook so they can check out pictures and updates from family and friends, but may resist using the site because they are worried about who will see their own content, according to a team of researchers.

In a study of older people’s perception of Facebook, participants listed keeping in touch, monitoring other’s updates and sharing photos as main reasons for using Facebook. However, other seniors listed privacy, as well as the triviality of some posts, as reasons they stay away from the site.

“The biggest concern is privacy and it’s not about revealing too much, it’s that they assume that too many random people out there can get their hands on their information,” said S. Shyam Sundar, distinguished professor of communications and co-director of the Media Effects Research Laboratory, Penn State. “Control is really what privacy is all about. It’s about the degree to which you feel that you have control over how your information is shared or circulated.”

The researchers, who report their findings in a forthcoming issue of Telematics and Informatics, available online now, said that Facebook developers should focus on privacy settings to tap into the senior market.

“Clear privacy control tools are needed to promote older adults’ Facebook use,” said Eun Hwa Jung, assistant professor of communications and new media, National University of Singapore. “In particular, we think that privacy settings and alerts need to be highly visible, especially when they [older adults] are sharing information.”

While older adults are leery about who is viewing their posts, they enjoy using the site to look at pictures and read posts from friends and family, according to the researchers.

“I am more of a Facebook voyeur, I just look to see what my friends are putting out there,” one participant told the researchers. “I haven’t put anything on there in years. I don’t need to say, ‘I’m having a great lunch!’ and things like that, I don’t understand that kind of communication.”

Sundar said that, in fact, many participants mentioned the triviality of the conversation that kept them from using Facebook.

“They believe that people reporting on the mundane and unremarkable things that they did — brushing their teeth, or what they had for lunch — is not worth talking about,” said Sundar. “That’s an issue, especially for this generation.”

Older users could be a significant resource to help drive the growth of Facebook and other social media sites, Sundar said.

“The 55-plus folks were slow initially in adopting social media, but now they are one of the largest growing sectors for social media adoption,” he said.

The researchers suggest that Facebook is helping to serve as a communications bridge between the generations and that young people are prompting their older family members to join the site.

“In particular, unlike younger people, most older adults were encouraged by younger family members to join Facebook so that they could communicate,” said Jung. “This implies that older adults’ interaction via social networking sites can contribute to effective intergenerational communication.”

The researchers recruited 46 participants who were between 65 and 95 years old to take part in in-depth interviews. The group included 17 male participants and 29 female participants, all of whom had a college degree. The participants also said they used a computer in their daily lives.

A total of 20 Facebook users and 26 non-users participated in the study. If participants had a Facebook account, researchers asked them about their experience and their motivations for joining. Participants who did not use Facebook were asked why they did not join.

Because all of the participants in this study lived in a retirement home, the researchers said that future research should look at the perception and use of Facebook by seniors who live alone.

India-Israel Defence Cooperation: Regional Implications – OpEd

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Since 1992, India-Israel’s economic and strategic ties have grown spectacularly as both states are significantly co-operating in the agricultural sector, research and development and IT start-ups.  Cooperation between both states has been significantly increasing irrespective of the political affiliation of the party in power. Although, bilateral relations have moved beyond the traditional spheres, defense and security ties along with secret intelligence operations, are dominant factors of their bilateral relations.

Israel is a leading developer of highly sophisticated weapons systems and ranked among the top ten weapons exporters of the world. Israel is the third largest arms supplier to India. The recent visit of Narendra Modi to the Israel has enhanced the scope of bilateral strategic and security cooperation. The focus of both states was to shift India-Israel’s bilateral relations from the buyer-seller model to the transfer and co-production of technology, which will further boost the objective of “Make in India initiative”.

In this regard, Israel is also exploring the joint production of drones with India that would contribute to PM Modi’s strategy of ‘Make in India’. India’s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) is responsible for collaborating with Israeli companies in a host of strategic ventures, including the Agni missile system. Israel being the third largest weapon supplier to India, and co-production of advanced weaponry, has qualitatively upgraded India-Israel defense ties.

Moreover, the four significant pillars of India and Israel’s defense ties include: First, the most significant is export of Israel’s weapon system. In this regarded India has acquired BARAK-1, anti-tank missiles to aerial reconnaissance drones and both states signed defense contracts worth billions in USD.

Second is the export of components and sub-system mainly electronics. Third is a joint venture regarding the weapons program and this joint venture in the defense sphere is viewed as a main thrust to the future defense ties between India and Israel.

The fourth are is the export of India’s military services and hardware to Israel. India acquires UAVs, radars, AWACS, laser guided bombs and missiles from Israel. Recently, Israel Aerospace Industries signed an agreement to supply $630 million worth of long-range surface-to-air missile systems to the Indian navy.

According to analysts, these widening arcs of shared defense interests could have serious implications not only for the South Asian strategic environment, but also for strategic stability of Asia. Constructive contribution of Indo-Israel Defence Partnership in India’s armed forces modernization will allow India to aggressively pursue its ambitions against its neighbors China and Pakistan.

Two factors have contributed to India-Israel’s stronger ties: first is that both states share a common stance on NPT, India and Israel have special relations with the United States and the most significant factor that is significantly playing its role in bilateral ties of India-Israel is that both states consider Pakistan as a common enemy.

Due to this factor, India is playing the Pakistan card as a striking reason to enhance defense ties with Israel. In this regard a senior analyst, Richard M. Rossow in Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) stated that, “Israel has, over the years, become more comfortable equipping India with weapon systems that may be employed against its neighbor Pakistan-more so than the United States, which he said was looking to “equip India more for maritime domain activity.”

Due to these factors and Israel’s willingness to help the Indian army against Pakistan and China, India-Israel’s defense ties are considered as threat to the security of Pakistan, as well as regional stability.

India-Israel defense co-operation resolves the common objective of achieving technological development and seeking qualitative superiority. India aims to play a dominant role in South Asia through the strategic program currently undertaken by both countries. To conclude, India-Israel defense cooperation is a matter of concern for regional states, especially for Pakistan, because such defense related developments have the potential to disturb regional security equation and instigate a lethal arms race.

*Asma Khalid, is Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute, a think-tank based in Islamabad. Can be reach at asmaakhalid_90@hotmail.com

Iran Nuclear Accord In Semi-Crisis – OpEd

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Slowly but surely, the once rather robust environment around the historic Iran nuclear deal has evaporated into an increasingly crisis situation, thus raising doubts about its future prospects.

The new uncertainties about the nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are themselves poison particularly for Iran as it continues to vest hope in reaping the economic benefits of the JCPOA during the second administration of President Hassan Rouhani.

Pressured by the hardliner politicians at home, Rouhani has now thrown the gauntlet by threatening to resurrect Iran’s industrial-scale fuel cycle if the US presses on with new sanctions. US’s Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, has reacted by making the outlandish statement that Iran will not be allowed to hold “the world hostage,” but perhaps Haley’s impending visit with the officials of the atomic agency in Vienna next week will be educational for her, in light of the hitherto seven IAEA reports confirming Iran’s full compliance with the JCPOA.

With the Trump Administration openly fishing for evidence in order to decertify Iran’s JCPOA compliance come this October, the stage is now set for a full-scale crisis (of choice), triggered by a US administration keen on checking the rising Iranian power in the Middle East by abrogating the nuclear deal, which has brought a modicum of normality in Iran-West relations.

By all accounts, should the White House balk at certifying Iran’s compliance to the US Congress a precious few months from now, then the likely result will be the internalization of the nuclear crisis into a crisis of decision-making within the US government itself, given the widespread reports of deep, and perhaps irreconcilable, divisions within the administration on its Iran strategy, pitting some of the president’s key advisers against the institutional heavyweights in the departments of state and defense as well as the national security council.

Even the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has publicly acknowledged his differences with the White House on the JCPOA, which has in turn prompted rumors that if Trump opts to decertify Iran in October, Tillerson will likely resign.

For now, however, the US continues to abide by the agreement despite taking tactical measures against it, in order to minimize Iran’s harvest of economic benefits, questioned most recently by ranking US Senator Diane Feinstein in an opinion column readily admitting that Trump’s recent lobbying the G20 leaders against doing business with Iran was a clear violation of the JCPOA.

In fact, Trump’s efforts have so far come empty-handed, as more and more European companies and even banks are engaging with Iran, thus reflecting a largely irreversible pattern of interaction with Iran in the new “post-sanctions” milieu.

Lacking any sound justification to sell its Iranophobic policy to its Western allies, the White House is pressed between a rock and a hard place, maneuvering to hit Iran with new sanctions and other related pressures while nominally committed to the JCPOA.

Caught between the cross-current of opposing perspectives on the viability and value of the JCPOA as mentioned above, President Trump is however apt to let the chips fall on the side of sticking with the JCPOA this Fall, given his preoccupation with the more pressing, and real, Korean crisis.

Indeed, this is the more likely scenario, likely anticipated by President Rouhani and his foreign policy team, who are well aware of the potential harms to US’s own national security interests if it scraps the nuclear deal, thus giving Rouhani a measure of elbow room to counter-maneuver against the White House and US Congress.

The net result of this mixed environment is, in the end, the perpetuation of an unhealthy state of semi-crisis around the JCPOA, bound to linger throughout the first Trump administration.

What We Are Dealing With: Trump Or Democracy – OpEd

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Although it is still not sure if Donald Trump will go down in history as champion of bombastic, but empty threats, or as somebody who did what he threatened with, thus starting a dangerous local war with potentially global consequences, one thing is absolutely sure: Donald Trump, the eccentric billionaire with a turbulent business career, a showman, proved with his entry into the White House, but as well as with the campaign waged by the so called liberals (in the best way of almost forgotten McChartism) to evict him from there, that the model of western democracy, especially its American version, is irreparable corrupted. If we look at the facts as they are, there can be no doubt about this.

Trump was elected as president of America, a country that was for decades, with good reason, viewed as the light-bearer of democracy. He was elected in accordance with the rules of the American democratic system, rules that are – basically – applied from the very beginning of the existence of the United States. Here we stumble upon the first “but”. Only to enter the race for the nomination for the presidential candidate, one must have money, very much money. In democracy, meaning the rule of the people, the people are robbed of the possibility to elect the best and forced to elect among the rich the one, who seems to be most capable. Or, and this is the second “but” (which was obviously the case in the last elections), people are left to choose and to decide who is the lesser evil. This is why, choosing between Trump, who at that time presented a fresh and for America even radically changed foreign policy program and the former First lady and Secretary of State, an undisputed political hawk with no other foreign policy program that the continuation of toppling regimes in foreign countries and installing those who suited the US best and – not to forget – the continuation of the reborn Cold war, people opted for Trump, as lesser evil. Of course, when we use the term “people” we have in mind those who decided to use their voting right, which is usually about 50% of those registered as potential voters. And here is the third “but”. The President is elected by the minority of the Americans and imposed upon the majority.

This is how American democracy functions, at least in the last couple of decades. But, being strongly influenced by everything coming from America, similar trends are more and more present in Europe too. In other words, system we call democracy and we praise as “something that is not perfect, but there is nothing better than it” (as the legendary British prime minister form the times of WW 2, Winston Churchill once said), is giving all chances and opening all doors not to those who are capable, but to those who are rich. This very system often forces the voters to choose only between the greater and lesser evil. And in many countries (France was, at least until today, an exception) the voters are to such a degree fed up with politics, with politicians and with the scandals accompanying them, that they in significant numbers simply abstain from their right to vote, leaving it to the minority to impose its choice to the majority. And this should be the rule of the people?

But let us deal with facts, as they are. Trump was elected in the same way as all his predecessors. He was not unique (meaning the first) even because of the fact that his opponent won more popular votes, but he won the elections due to the electoral votes. To put it as simply as possible: he won in a democratic way and his victory was legitimate. And here begins the second chapter of the saga about the corrupted democracy. Despite the fact that he was democratically elected, despite the fact the legality of his election could not have been disputed, followers of the candidate who lost (and in whom the disoriented left leaning European liberals all of a sudden see a leftist – what she never was!) started with help of the mainstream media, either friendly to them or controlled by them (free media, is it?) an unprecedented campaign against Trump. His “main sin”, needless to say is, according to them, that he won due to the Russian meddling in the election process – which is a gigantic compliment to the Russian propaganda and secret services, but at the same time an even greater offence to the American voters. Parallel to this Trump’s mental health, his ability to perform the duties of the President and – more recently – his threat to start a nuclear war are being discussed.

The champion of the anti-Trump campaign, the global TV network, CNN, already discusses his state of mind (his accountability, to put it bluntly), the degree of his connection with Moscow (a second detant is obviously something very frightening for Trump’s political adversaries) and finally the mechanisms of impeachment. The special prosecutor investigating the alleged ties between Trump and the Kremlin, already conveyed the so called grand jury, a citizen’s assembly which will in the best tradition of senator Joe McCharty’s investigations of the anti-American activities, decide – based on the reports of the US intelligence agencies which have until today presented no hard evidence, no “smoking gun”, proving that Moscow really did meddle in the presidential elections – if Trump was elected American president due to the will and support of the American votes (meaning electors), or due to the influence from Moscow.

Judging by the present state of affairs, it is not hard to anticipate their decision.

In the meantime nobody is mentioning any more the financial irregularities (to say the least) in the activity of the Clinton Foundation, or the unprotected e-mails the former Secretary of State sent from an unprotected mobile phone, thus breaking the law (what she, despite the evidence, denied to have done). Nobody is mentioning her role in the ill-fated Arab Spring, especially in the toppling of the Lybian regime and the murder of colonel Ghadafi. On the contrary! The promotion of her hastily written book, entitled “What really happened” is announced, with the clear aim to close the coffin of Trump’s presidency.

And Trump, although being a “foreigner” on the political scene is far from being naïve. He fully understands that it is for him to be or not to be. And he acts like a wounded animal, chased into a corner. He forgets everything he promised during the election campaign (with the exception of the wall along the border with Mexico), he forgets his words that “America will no longer impose the American way of life” on anybody and his politics (if the stumbling from one day into the other can be called politics) resembles more and more those of George W. Bush and Barack Obama (read: Hillary Clinton). And he repeatedly and with ever greater enthusiasm threatens with the American military might, which brought him on the verge of open war with seemingly unpredictable, but in reality very “down to the Earth” regime of North Korea. Kim Yong Un seems to be an enigma to the world, but let us not forget that he was educated in the West. He knows perfectly well whom he is dealing with, while Trump entered the war games without knowing anything about Kim – if we forget the slogans about the harsh dictatorship and the last bastion of communism and what else the military-industrial complex is “feeding” him with in order to always have an enemy, even at the risk of a world war.

Today’s world is on the brink of a confrontation with unforeseeable consequences. But, it is not Donald Trump who is to be blamed for this in the first place. Much more – the system that opened for him the doors of the White House and is now trying- mainly through the activities of the deep state – to throw him out of there. Both things, needless to say: democratically. Because of that, is it not the last minute to start thinking about what is really the system we call democracy and what is this system giving us (or taking from us)? So, it is not Donald Trump we are dealing with, it is democracy, better to say system we view as democracy and which has with the original meaning of the world less and less in common. After all, was it not the 2nd President of the United States, John Adams, who said: “Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” And did we remember, do we remember?

*Tomislav Jakić was Foreign Policy Advisor to former Croatian President Stjepan Mesić


Is There Such A Thing As ‘Ethnic Conflict’? – Analysis

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By Orof. Zlatko Hadzidedic*

“Ethnic conflict“ has become a very fashionable notion. However, it was not always so. Indeed, in the not-so-distant past such a notion was practically unknown. In the pre-modern times, conflicts were assumed to take place between power-holders, over pieces of land. The former sought to seize, control and exploit all resources within the latter, including the population that was also perceived and treated only as yet another resource for exploitation.

Ethnic identities of the population residing within particular territories were totally irrelevant to the power-holders and hence did not serve as a source of disputes and conflicts between them. Indeed, having been treated as yet another resource for exploitation, the inhabitants of the targeted lands were regarded as essentially identity-less. What mattered to the power-holders was the land itself, with all its resources, including the subjects residing there. And the subjects themselves, no matter whether they had several diverse ethnic identities or a single unified one, were so powerless as to be unable to launch a conflict between themselves, let alone a rebellion against the power-holders. Thus the powerless could only serve as the powerful’s assets for the land’s occupation and exploitation of its resources.

Given the increasing presence of the term “ethnic conflict“ in the public communication, we may rightfully ask whether the nature of power, and hence the nature of conflict, has changed so much as to make identity, rather than power itself, the source of the modern type of conflict? True, during the tide of the 18th- and 19th-century revolutions it was proclaimed that power was granted to the people, who have thus ceased to be mere subjects. It was proclaimed that sovereignty – that is, the exclusive power to control a territory and exploit all its resources – was taken from the powerful and given to the powerless.

Ever since, sovereignty itself has become treated as a matter of inherent right, that is, a natural possession of the latter, rather than a matter of exercised power, that is, a natural acquisition of the former. Thus, in the earliest modern theories of sovereignty, the former subjects were proclaimed a collective sovereign. And, in accordance with its newly-acquired collective nature, sovereignty itself was proclaimed indivisible and non-transferable.

For, whereas the pre-modern individual sovereignty could easily be divided between the sovereign’s descendants and transferred to them by inheritance or marriage, the very concept of modern, collective, popular sovereignty does not allow for any such arrangements: the sovereignty of the people can neither be divided between its collective sub-parts nor distributed among its individual members, nor can it be transferred to them or to any other people. And, according to the derivations of the classical theories of popular sovereignty gathered under the umbrella-name of “nationalism”, the possession of collective identity by a particular people equates to the right to sovereignty, i.e. the exclusive right to control a territory and exploit all its resources.

Since identity is thus practically equated with sovereignty, conflict itself comes to be perceived as a struggle for control over a particular collective identity as a presumed source of sovereignty, rather than a struggle for sovereign control over a particular piece of land. Within such a discourse, it becomes conceivable that entire peoples fight one another, simply to assert their identities, which can only be achieved in the form of sovereignty over particular territories. And then, it also becomes conceivable that entire peoples, having successfully asserted their identities in the form of sovereignty over particular territories, strive for mutual “reconciliation”.

Such discourse, derived from the aforementioned modern theories of sovereignty, dominates the public sphere in almost all modern societies. However, has the nature of power really changed so much as to translate a struggle for control over a particular territory into a struggle for control over a particular collective identity? Or does the discourse itself attempt to hide the true nature of power, centered around the struggle for a particular territory, and all its resources, by traditional power-holders, who now appear as a personification of peoples’ identities?

A brief analysis of the so-called “ethnic conflict” and the so-called “post-conflict transition” in Bosnia-Herzegovina may offer a straightforward answer to these rather abstract questions. This particular case is used as a paradigm that depicts the essence of power-relations hidden under the mask of the modern nationalist discourse, according to which ethnic groups naturally fight each other in order to assert their respective ethnic identities and seize exclusive control (that is, sovereign power) over respective targeted territories.

So, let us define the notion of ethnic identity and its application to the Bosnian political environment. Without any ambitions to provide a comprehensive definition, but rather an operative one, we may define this type of identity as being rooted in a myth of common origin.

In this sense, members of an ethnic group share a belief in their common ancestors. They may well share common language, religion, values, and customs; but they may also share some or all of these features with other groups. What distinguishes one group from all others, and what constitutes the basis of its identity, is a shared myth of common ancestors.

There is yet another important feature that usually characterizes ethnic groups, which makes them distinct one from another and from other types of groups: a link with a particular territory, which a group considers its own living space and commonly depicts as a land of its forefathers. It means that such a territory is directly linked with the group’s identity. Such a territory normally has its provisional boundaries, fluctuating together with the symbolic boundaries of the group itself.

Within the frame of the modern nationalist discourse, when a group asserts its will to transform provisional territorial boundaries into formal state borders, it transforms itself into a sovereign nation. Of course, a group does not have to share a myth of common origin to claim sovereignty over a particular territory and thus transform itself into a nation: it is sufficient for a group to become homogenized by a claim to sovereignty to undergo such a transformation; Americans are probably the most famous example.

Now, let us see how these parameters apply to the groups in Bosnia-Herzegovina usually referred to as ethnic ones. Firstly, they all share a common language, which every independent linguist would confirm without hesitation; and they also share it with the populations of the neighboring countries of Serbia, Montenegro and Croatia.

Secondly, they all share common South Slavic origin, and most of their common traditional customs; in other words, if we put aside their diverse religious traditions (Catholic, Orthodox and Muslim), we may well say that they share a common culture.

Thirdly, prior to the 1992-1995 war, they never had distinct ethnically defined territories and predominantly lived together, especially in urban areas. As sociological research has shown, distinct religious groups may live mixed in common areas, whereas distinct ethnic groups usually possess or aspire to possess their distinct territories, just as distinct nations possess or aspire to possess their separate sovereign states. So, from a sociological point of view, prior to the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, its distinct groups predominantly displayed the features of religious, rather than ethnic or national, groups.

On the other hand, in the former Yugoslavia, and especially after its breakup, in the public discourse these groups were commonly referred to as “nations”. This practice was particularly strange given the fact that one of them was commonly named after its religious identity as Muslims; at the same time, the other two were commonly labeled as Serbs and Croats, in accordance with the nationalist narratives established in the Balkans by the end of the 19th century, which basically proclaimed all Catholics members of the Croat nation and all the Orthodox members of the Serb nation.

In this way, labeled as “nations”, they were all implicitly stimulated to claim sovereignty of their own, that is, to claim exclusive control over particular territories and thereby transform these territories into sovereign states or, alternatively, to cede these territories from Bosnia-Herzegovina and unite them with the neighboring nation-states, Serbia and Croatia.

Strangely, these narratives, mostly coming from Serbia and Croatia, have never encountered serious intellectual or political resistance in Bosnia-Herzegovina, although they represent a clear threat to its integrity. Obviously, the very meaning of the term “nation” has never been taken into serious consideration by social scientists in this country. Of course, pragmatic politicians have not missed the opportunity to utilize the implications of the term for their own purposes.

However, these hidden implications never took the form of overt territorial and political claims before 1991. Prior to that, the very idea of distinct, let alone separate, ethnic territories within Bosnia-Herzegovina had been inconceivable. Yet, since then, this idea has acquired monopolistic status within the public discourse in this country. How has this happened?

The whole process was launched in a rather bizarre way. Prior to the elections in 1990, in which the three ethno-nationalist parties won for the first time, the whole country was suddenly flooded with hundreds of thousands of the so-called ethnic maps, according to which particular ethnic groups were assigned “their own” territories, on the basis of statistical majority: wherever a particular group had a majority of 51%, that piece of land was assigned to the group as its exclusive possession.

No one has ever explained who was behind such a huge and expensive intelligence operation, but the very appearance of the maps in such huge numbers was a clear suggestion to all the country’s inhabitants that they should classify themselves along the lines of ethnic division and consequent territorial partition.

Indeed, ever since then the idea of belonging to a particular ethnic majority in a particular territory has become the prime stake in the country’s political life. Ever since, the leaders of the three ethno-nationalist parties have been persistent at using the maps manipulatively to raise insecurity and tensions among the country’s inhabitants, the majority of whom hitherto had not cared much about articulation of their ethnic identity, let alone about creation of exclusive ethnic territories. However, the maps and the politicians’ messages clearly signaled that one’s existence, indeed one’s very survival, was to be projected only within such units. Systematically spread rumors that the ethno-nationalist leaders were already negotiating how to distribute territories as the exclusive ownership of their respective groups directly supported such projections.

The next decisive step to implement these maps on the ground and officially partition the country along the ethnic lines was instigated by the Chairperson of the Conference on the Former Yugoslavia, Lord Carrington. Ethnic partitioning was further promoted by his aide, the Portugese diplomat Jose Cutilleiro, who led a series of secretive negotiations between the leaders of Bosnia’s three ethno-nationalist parties, Mr Izetbegović of SDA, Mr Karadžić of SDS, and Mr Boban of HDZ, known as the Lisbon Conference in 1991 and 1992.

It is of the utmost importance to note that these negotiations began a year before the Bosnian war started, so that the partition was NOT proposed because of the necessity to end the armed conflict (as all “international mediators: have subsequently claimed).

Moreover, it was the war itself that was fought along the lines drawn on the map agreed upon in Lisbon, where the ethnically profiled armies were taking over the agreed territories to become ethnically exclusive.

Thus, Bosnia-Herzegovina was fully partitioned in Lisbon well before the war. However, the war itself, alongside the process of ethnic cleansing, was necessary to implement the partitioning on the ground and eliminate minority population from the territories earmarked for ethnic majorities. That may be the reason why any reference to the Lisbon Conference has remained shrouded in silence. Of course, the Conference itself was held in almost total secrecy, but the main reason for its absence from the official history is that it established the permanent normative framework not only for the war operations and ethnic cleansing, but also for all the subsequent failures to restore the Bosnian society and state to its pre-war form.

What was reportedly promoted in Lisbon was simply a map of the intra-state borders, which were implemented by the war operations, formalized by the subsequent peace negotiations, and are still in existence preventing the restoration of the normal pre-war communication between the country’s citizens. However, what the Lisbon Conference actually promoted is no less than a total over-throwal of the most basic principles of popular sovereignty, those ones declaring that sovereignty is essentially indivisible and non-transferable. In Lisbon, the state sovereignty of the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, as the basis of its Constitution, was divided into three parts and then transferred to the three ethnic groups represented there by the three ethno-nationalist leaders. Each of the groups was assigned particular territories over which their respective political structures have since attempted to exercise sovereign control.

The subsequent developments, based on the assumptions adopted in Lisbon and formalized in the Dayton Peace Agreement, have demonstrated that even such a twisted interpretation of sovereignty has not been an end of the transformations of the country’s structure. For, these territories, formally assigned to the three ethnic groups to exercise sovereign control over them, have practically been transformed into private property of their respective ethnic oligarchies. Even such a divided and transferred sovereignty has been reduced to private land ownership, with most of the resources within these territories having been granted as private property to individual members of these oligarchies, under the pretext of privatization, which was set as a precondition for joining the Western structures, such as the European Union and NATO.

Obviously, the so-called “ethnic conflict” which physically destroyed the country between 1992 and 1995 and continues to destroy the Bosnian society in the political and economic sphere, has never been performed as an interface between the three communities.

Since its very beginning, it has been a process of distribution and redistribution of private possessions between the three ethnic oligarchies. As such, it has always been a product of the premeditated political strategies. These strategies have been promoted and performed by the local political oligarchies, but have also been sponsored by some of the global players, whose agenda – from the Lisbon Conference to the present day – has been the partition of the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina. This also means that the so-called “ethnic conflict” is not to be regarded as an inherent part of the collective identity of the country’s existing ethnic groups, but rather as an artificially generated project designed by the aforementioned local oligarchies and their global sponsors, in accordance with their immediate political goals.

As usual, these power-holders – just like those pre-modern ones – have sought to establish their own control over particular territories in order to assure possession and exploitation of their resources. The so-called “ethnic conflict” in Bosnia-Herzegovina has been just a cover-up, as is usually the case with “ethnic conflicts” around the world. Such is the nature of power, and it has not changed. It is only that power-holders now seek to cover it up by mobilizing the masses and trigering massive conflicts, depicting it as genuine conflicts between entire collectivities.

In this sense, the terms “reconciliation” and “post-conflict transition”, implying that so-called “ethnic conflicts” are authentic occurrences on the level of entire collectivities rather than artificial products generated on the level of narrow political elites, should also be dismissed as misnomers.

About the author:
*Prof. Zlatko Hadzidedic, graduate of the London School of Economics, Prof. Zlatko Hadžidedić is a prominent thinker, prolific author of numerous books, and indispensable political figure of the former Yugoslav socio-political space in 1990s, 2000s and 2010s.

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy

Perception Needs To Change In Sync With Law – OpEd

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Varnika Kundu’s recent tryst with alleged stalking at Chandigarh, the ensuing controversies and the action taken by the authorities only underline the fact that the common law and popular attitudes with regard to ‘stalking’ and ‘concealing the identity’ of a victim need to be revisited.

Similarly in context is the most heinous Bilkis Bano case, wherein she maintained, at the end of the trial, that all she wanted was “justice, not revenge.” All the time, Bilkis throughout the 15-year period of trial, revealed her identity putting it out there in public domain and that became her source of strength.

The Bombay High Court judgement upholding the life imprisonment of 12 accused involved in raping her also set aside the acquittal of seven persons who included police officers and doctors. Bilkis, who was pregnant at the time and also lost her three-and-half year old daughter in the riots, is hoping that the judgement will help her lead, “a good life”.

The milestone judgement, fifteen long years after the crime was committed in 2002, will go down in history for a string of reasons. It brought to the limelight, the role of police officers and doctors in the crime as the Bombay High Court overturned their acquittal, holding them accountable for covering up the incident. “My elder daughter wants to be a lawyer. I will make sure all my children study and chart a new path,” said Bilkis.

Predictably, there was social ostracism and pressure from community members, but her husband Yakub stood stoically by her side all through the 15 years. Even as they changed ‘homes’ over 25 times in fifteen years, they faced threats from convicts who were frequently out on parole. Yakub broke down when asked about the family’s ordeal at a conference held after the judgement. “I want women across the board to get justice like Bilkis,” he said.

Even as the law prevails finally, it often is the journey through the motions, for 15 years for Bilkis Bano and her family, which breaks the victim. Hence, the implication of police officers and doctors in a case pertaining to sexual violence, probably for the first time in India’s legal history, will go down as a precedent to smoothen the way for similar cases in the future. The presumption of public servants ‘acting in good faith’ has single-handedly stalled due process of law over years and needs to be examined, purely on merit. In the case of Bano, the doctors’ and police officers’ omissions, being “grave and obvious” and their malafides and intentions seeming “apparent”, was placed on record.

In view of the social pressures and stigma associated with sexual violence and crimes against women, Bilkis Bano’s shines as an example. The woman not just stood tall against her oppressors, mighty and powerful, she stood without concealing her identity: An identity that the law has, rightly retained, for some, provisions for non-disclosure in order to avert the very stigma that victims face.

The one weapon that Bilkis Bano used and with aplomb, in her fight against the system, was her identity. She came out in the open and offered her name, story complete with images to be put in public domain. Bilkis Bano fought a stigma that the perpetrators always attempt to use in order to silence a victim. She went public with her story: This, despite, the law offering provisions for a victim of sexual violence and rape to maintain privacy.

And, while the option of going public or maintaining privacy rests solely upon the victim, Bilkis has dealt a blow to her perpetrators by refusing to stay silent, cave into pressures of time and trial and remain anonymous. Similarly-affected victims may need the protection of law to remain anonymous in order to safeguard their interests, yet a lot of care will need to be taken in order to ensure that the system is not manipulated by players proficient in dodging the system.

Besides the perpetrators who continued to manipulate the system and its parole facilities to intimidate, threaten and coerce Bilkis Bano into submission, it were the police officers and the doctors whose inactions “grave and obvious” which stalled the due process. In that, Bilkis Bano’s is a lofty precedent that provides the much-needed relief for the overloaded legal system in order to achieve justice. It’s these factors, ‘motivated’ police officers and ‘corrupt’ doctors fudging medical and post-mortem reports that thwart the legal system.

‘Acts in Good Faith’ committed by police officers and doctors will now be examined on merit as their conviction in Bilkis Bano’s case exposes the complicity and culpable involvement of a section of ‘motivated’ public servants; the need to “go public” in order to counter shaming tactics and a strict re-examination of serving criminals misusing “parole”.

Bilkis Bano has kick-started the process of socio-legal reforms in India across machineries, which are being grossly misused and need an urgent overhaul failing which the Rule of Law risks being quashed: And, the world’s largest democracy will need to address it…and soon!

Varnika, like Bilkis, too came out in the open, revealing her identity when not many, in her situation, would. Regardless of popular fears and social worries, Varnika stood tall and won. Varnika Kundu could have concealed her identity but stood her ground, revealing it instead, she maintained the fight was not just personal: It was against all those targeting women.

Taking an issue like ‘stalking’ lightly or ratifying it by way of politically motivated speeches or justifying stalking through films under the guise of creativity should end. It may need legislation in the absence of sensitivity towards the issue. The media needs to educate, sensitise and initiate change in this regard. Sadly, more often than not, the media tends to either simplify the situation or fan controversy blindly.

Law-enforcement agencies have poor idea about the law itself. The police, on their part, are evidently unaware of the amended legislation passed by Parliament in February 2013, which came just a year after a medical student was gang-raped in Delhi. The law has changed but for mindsets to change, it will take longer. It was against the backdrop of the Delhi rape that followed the amendment and the concurrent identification of stalking as a serious offence.

An offence of stalking can be committed by anyone even known to the victim. So, in most cases wherein a family member stalks a girl, sometimes a daughter too, the police tend to dismiss it as a civil matter and thereby escalating the risk for the victim: This, despite the law being there to protect her. A lot needs to be done to change attitudes among the law enforcement agencies towards crimes especially those relating to women and pertaining to their own families. The perception, especially among the police, that the issue is a domestic one and a civil matter to boot, has to change.

That said, it needs the police at grass-root level to facilitate inquiries and preventive action; the media to act responsibly in the absence of legislation to censor their creativity and the politicians to perform their duty by upholding the law rather than fanning popular sentiments and playing vote-bank politics. Now, those are tall orders, but India is on the mend and things will change!

Poisonings Went Hand In Hand With The Drinking Water In Pompeii

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The ancient Romans were famous for their advanced water supply. But the drinking water in the pipelines was probably poisoned on a scale that may have led to daily problems with vomiting, diarrhea, and liver and kidney damage. This is the finding of analyses of water pipe from Pompeii.

The concentrations were high and were definitely problematic for the ancient Romans. Their drinking water must have been decidedly hazardous to health.

This is what a chemist from University of Southern Denmark reveals: Kaare Lund Rasmussen, a specialist in archaeological chemistry. He analyzed a piece of water pipe from Pompeii, and the result surprised both him and his fellow scientists. The pipes contained high levels of the toxic chemical element, antimony.

The result has been published in the journal Toxicology Letters.

Romans poisoned themselves

For many years, archaeologists have believed that the Romans’ water pipes were problematic when it came to public health. After all, they were made of lead: a heavy metal that accumulates in the body and eventually shows up as damage to the nervous system and organs. Lead is also very harmful to children. So there has been a long-lived thesis that the Romans poisoned themselves to a point of ruin through their drinking water.

“However, this thesis is not always tenable. A lead pipe gets calcified rather quickly, thereby preventing the lead from getting into the drinking water. In other words, there were only short periods when the drinking water was poisoned by lead: for example, when the pipes were laid or when they were repaired: assuming, of course, that there was lime in the water, which there usually was,” said Kaare Lund Rasmussen.

Instead, he believes that the Romans’ drinking water may have been poisoned by the chemical element, antimony, which was found mixed with the lead.

Advanced equipment at SDU

Unlike lead, antimony is acutely toxic. In other words, you react quickly after drinking poisoned water. The element is particularly irritating to the bowels, and the reactions are excessive vomiting and diarrhea that can lead to dehydration. In severe cases it can also affect the liver and kidneys and, in the worst-case scenario, can cause cardiac arrest.

This new knowledge of alarmingly high concentrations of antimony comes from a piece of water pipe found in Pompeii.

“Or, more precisely, a small metal fragment of 40 mg, which I obtained from my French colleague, Professor Philippe Charlier of the Max Fourestier Hospital, who asked if I would attempt to analyze it. The fact is that we have some particularly advanced equipment at SDU, which enables us to detect chemical elements in a sample and, ever more importantly, to measure where they occur in large concentrations.”

Volcano made it even worse

Kaare Lund Rasmussen underlined that he only analyzed this one little fragment of water pipe from Pompeii. It will take several analyses before we can get a more precise picture of the extent, to which Roman public health was affected.

But there is no question that the drinking water in Pompeii contained alarming concentrations of antimony, and that the concentration was even higher than in other parts of the Roman Empire, because Pompeii was located in the vicinity of the volcano, Mount Vesuvius. Antimony also occurs naturally in groundwater near volcanoes.

This is what the researchers did

The measurements were conducted on a Bruker 820 Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer.

The sample was dissolved in concentrated nitric acid. 2 mL of the dissolved sample was transferred to a loop and injected as an aerosol in a stream of argon gas which was heated to 6000 degrees C by the plasma.

All the elements in the sample were ionized and transferred as an ion beam into the mass spectrometer. By comparing the measurements against measurements on a known standard the concentration of each element is determined.

Kurds’ Treatment In Turkey Is Indefensible – OpEd

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The below article is a response to a public letter written by Ibrahim Kurtulus, criticizing my previous article about the plight of the Kurds in Turkey. Kurtulus is a member of the Federation of Turkish American Associations, Inc. You can find a link to his letter in full here.

By Dr. Alon Ben-Meir*

Given the plight of the Kurds in Turkey and the need to find a solution to the 40-year-old violent conflict between the PKK and successive Turkish governments, I thought it was critically important to respond to Mr. Kurtulus’ criticism of my previous article and bring to light the terrible mistreatment of the Kurds under Erdogan’s reign of terror. Kurtulus resorts to sweeping absurdities and dishonesty to rebut my position, but to no avail. His blind biases and hypocrisy shine throughout his counter-arguments, which are on display for all to see. Meanwhile, the Kurds continue to suffer, and it is they who are paying the price.

To put things in perspective, it is important to identify who Mr. Kurtulus is and highlight his suspect behavior, which raises serious questions about his credibility and integrity.

This is a man who openly colluded with Michael Flynn, the disgraced former National Security Advisor for President Donald Trump. Flynn, a paid lackey of the Turkish government, “omitted Kurtulus…in [a] section of the form requiring more specific disclosures for income sources in the last year,” according to the Washington Post. Kurtulus’ funding of Flynn as a quasi-spokesman on behalf of Turkish interests makes him complicit in the actions of a man who exhibited deceitful behavior while in high office.

Kurtulus qualifies himself as “having nothing to do with the Turkish government,” but a cursory glance at his public record reveals his connections to Erdogan loyalists and even members of Erdogan’s own family. There are numerous instances of Kurtulus appearing at public functions alongside Hilal Mutlu, an activist and cousin of the Turkish president, and Kurtulus leveraged his relationships with Mutlu to convince General Flynn that Fethullah Gülen was the primary plotter of the failed July 15, 2016 coup.

His first claim that I am either a “friend of the Kurds, or a hater of the Turks, or both” is irrational. In which way does my sympathy for the Kurdish cause mean that I am a hater of the Turkish people? Similarly, my respect for the Turkish people does not translate to hatred of the Kurds. In my article, I equally blame both the PKK and Erdogan for the ongoing cycle of violence that is devastating southeastern Turkey, and killing scores of innocents Kurds and Turks alike—hardly an endorsement of one side versus the other.

Acknowledging the reality of the deadly cycle of violence does not make me a propagandist on behalf of the Kurds, as Kurtulus claims. No one in today’s Turkey can voice any dissent against Erdogan and do so with impunity. But no one is deserving of more piercing criticism than Erdogan for inflicting so much pain and agony on millions of innocent Turkish citizens, while assuming dictatorial powers and dismantling the foundation of Turkey’s democracy.

The Turkey-PKK conflict has been long and bloody, and one cannot attribute the killing solely to the PKK, as many thousands have been killed on both sides. The focus needs to be on preventing further bloodshed, and this can only be achieved if both commit to the resumption of well-intentioned peace negotiations. The PKK is indeed recognized as a terror group by many countries, but how does Kurtulus reconcile that with the fact that Erdogan himself negotiated with this “terror group”?

Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the Kurds, has indicated time and again that he is ready and willing to resume negotiations, and it is Erdogan who is refusing to restart the peace talks which he abruptly ended in 2015. In fact, his own Prime Minister at the time, Ahmet Davutoglu, beseeched him not to do so for the sake of the country and its future stability.  When will Erdogan and people like Kurtulus understand that the Kurdish problem in Turkey cannot be simply wished away? Erdogan will fail, like his predecessors, to fight the PKK “until the very last rebel is killed.”

The Turkish Kurds have every right to live their lives as they see fit and still be loyal citizens of their country. What gives Kurtulus or Erdogan the right to dictate the way the Kurds should live, and deprive them of their cultural heritage? In which way would that infringe on Turkey, especially when hypocrites like Kurtulus claim that Turkey is a democracy?

Let me be abundantly clear, and I quote directly from my article: “I do not support, and I condemn any individual or group who uses brutal force for political or social gains regardless of its source, motivation, ideology, or belief.” Thus, I am not turning Öcalan into “some sort of a hero,” as Kurtulus suggests. Nevertheless, Öcalan remains the leader of the Kurdish cause in Turkey and is the best conduit for achieving a peaceful settlement, especially given his past and present willingness to engage in serious negotiations to end this endemic conflict.

To be sure, the designation of the PKK as a terror group is arbitrary—Mandela’s ANC was listed as a terrorist group until 2008, and Mandela himself languished in jail for 26 years. Who today views Mandela as a terrorist? Again, I refer to my above comments regarding the very notion of what a terror group is in this context—Erdogan’s engagement with the PKK would make him a terrorist sympathizer, according to Kurtulus’ “logic.”

Kurtulus says that my comments on the discrimination faced by the Kurds leave me a “step away from claiming the Kurds are wearing yellow stars” [emphasis added]. I condemn in the strongest terms Kurtulus’ knee-jerk evocation of Nazi-era practices, which demonstrates how ignorant and blind he is to historic events, especially of that era.

There is a long history of discrimination against Kurds in Turkey that persists today and would simply take too long to enumerate here. The Kurdish language was suppressed for decades, Kurdish-run schools were not allowed to operate, there was forced relocation—Kurtulus’ flippant treatment of this well-documented history is astonishing.

Kurtulus calls into question the loyalty of 14,000 Kurdish teachers who were recently removed from their posts due to unfounded claims of terroristic association. We are talking about innocent civilian teachers—while Kurtulus is making the extraordinary claim that all of them are PKK terrorists or have related affiliations, he does not produce a shred of evidence about the teachers’ culpability. Instead, he turns a blind eye to the consistent abuse of and discrimination against the Kurds, and worships Erdogan for jailing thousands of breadwinners and leaving their families in utter despair.

Democratically-elected Kurdish MPs have been marginalized and their party was all but ejected from the parliament. It is clear why Erdogan targeted them—the growing electoral strength of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) was an obstacle in his quest for dictatorial powers. As Erdogan himself shamelessly said, the failed coup was a “gift from God,” which he seized to realize his sinister dream of purging anyone that stands in his way—with a special focus on the Kurds and the followers of his arch enemy Fethullah Gülen.

Kurtulus suggests that I was advocating for Kurdish independence, which I have not. I have spoken to scores of Kurdish parliamentarians over the years; none has ever implied they seek independence, and certainly they are not demanding the surrender of any part of Turkish territory. Here again, Kurtulus chooses to level charges that have no semblance to reality. In which way would the Kurdish demand to have some freedom to run their own domestic affairs translate to surrendering land? Only people who wish to distort reality will read into what the Kurds aspire for as tantamount to political independence.

Let me repeat—the Kurds’ loyalty to Turkey and their desire to have the freedom to enjoy their culture and language is not an oxymoron. In fact, they complement each other, as in any genuine democratic country cultural diversity enriches rather than undermines social cohesiveness. The US provides an exemplary case attesting to this fact.

Like all his misstatements of fact, Kurtulus equates the PKK to ISIS, which is as absurd as the rest of his argument. The whole world, including myself, has condemned ISIS in every which way, as they have usurped lands from sovereign states and employed brutal force in the areas where they governed. In which way do Turkish Kurds resemble ISIS? Kurtulus’ sweeping analogies are consistent with his sweeping denials as he seems to revel in illusions, where fools find comfort.

In another section of his invective letter, Kurtulus deviates into an absurd non-sequitur that merits a response only because of the sheer absurdity and falsehoods he joyfully spat out. I have never said that the “Turks do not belong in the human race” and would never make such a degenerate and depraved statement when in fact I have tremendous admiration for the Turkish people. Kurtulus simply reaffirmed his analphabetism of my work and his addiction to lies and misstatements.

His foray into denial of the Armenian Genocide speaks volumes to the shaky intellectual ground on which he stands. At no point in my article did I address the Armenian Genocide and I will not engage in a historical debate on this dark chapter in the waning days of the Ottoman Empire. All I can say is that today’s new Republic of Turkey and the Turkish people cannot and should not be blamed for the sins of their forefathers, just as no one in his right mind should blame today’s Germany and its people for the atrocities committed by Nazi Germany three generations ago.

Kurtulus cannot claim that “Turkey is still a democracy” and expect to be taken seriously. I can point to the firing of thousands of civil servants without a shred of evidence of involvement in the failed coup; to the dozens of journalists in jail only for doing their jobs; to the sham referendum that was held during a state of emergency; to the lifting of parliamentary immunity in order to target Kurdish members of the Assembly; to the laws criminalizing offensive speech against Erdogan; to the evisceration of the Turkish judiciary system in order to install his cronies; to the witch hunt of anyone suspected of having any affiliation with the Gülen movement; and so on. The list is by no means exhaustive, but it illustrates the sad state of Turkey’s reality today—one that has become completely subsumed to Erdogan’s cult of personality.

I stand by my position that the Turkish Kurds have the right to enjoy freedom and security as loyal citizens. It is time that all Turkish citizens recognize this reality, and demand the resumption of peace talks to end the continuing death and destruction, which is tearing the social fabric of their country while depriving 15 million Kurds of their basic human rights.

*Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of TransConflict.

State, Film Focus On A Pending Need For Toilets – OpEd

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Hindi film industry’s Akshay Kumar’s latest ‘Toilet – Ek Prem Katha’ brings to focus a very serious issue. In India, where a huge number of rural settings don’t have toilets, the issue isn’t just one of hygiene, it is one of safety too that is hugely compromised each time a woman steps out to relieve herself in the dark of the night or before dawn as is usually the case.

Also, contrary to popular perception, the issue isn’t about lack of means, but myriad misplaced views about defecating indoors.

The issue of toilets in India has always been closely associated with the safety of women and rape and making light of a PM candidate’s attempts to tackle it was deplorable to say the least. Social media enthusiasts had deemed it as the ‘funniest video ever’ when John Oliver made a mockery of Indian Politics and particularly Bharatiya Janata Party’s election manifesto.

Oliver had dished out ‘witty’ remarks like “Wow! That’s a bold move, coming out as pro-toilet” or “So, who are you gonna vote for? Modi. Why? Because he appeared to me as a hologram and told me he’d give me a toilet,” and for many it was ‘hilariously funny.’ The video went viral and with it the ill-placed sarcasm aimed to belittle Modi’s poll plank.

While the lesser-viewed Oliver’s spiel wasn’t supposed to be taken seriously, it surely provided for rather mediocre entertainment. That it became hugely viral espoused the fact that most viewers completely missed the point.

Satire is associated with verbal onslaughts that don’t quite qualify for penal action but risk being starkly insensitive to culture and gender issues. But then, for Oliver as with an equally-insensitive viewership, the satire was at worst … funny. Oliver and most of his giggly viewership were unaware of the impending risks that half of India’s population — a whopping 1/12th of the world’s — has to face while venturing out in the open at odd hours of the night or early morning for some private time in a wholly unsafe public space.

So, while the promise of ‘a toilet in every home’ may not feature on a US politician’s list of poll planks, but it is the need of the hour for a country like India where every house does not have a toilet of its own. It is of little wonder then that Narendra Modi, the-then prime ministerial candidate had even said that ‘Toilets were needed more than temples,’ in a statement that hit the nail on the head.

When two minor Dalit girls were found hanging from a tree in Badaun District in Uttar Pradesh leaving the entire nation horrified and Modi’s concerns vindicated. Injury marks were found on their bodies too. The girls were sisters and abducted by the perpetrators when they were on the way to relieve themselves in the fields.

The crime once again highlighted the fact that there is a dearth of public toilets and proper sanitation in India and that, the worst affected were women at the highest risk.

The sad fact is this was not a case in isolation. There have been many such cases reported across nation, in the past, when a vulnerable target was abducted, raped and/or murdered when she went to relieve herself in the open fields.

Having to fear for one’s safety every time a person needs to answer nature’s call should not be a ‘regular’ occurrence. But, in rural areas where one has to go searching for a deserted farms or fields or wait for it to get dark to relive oneself in a nearby jungle, safety is always compromised and those at the highest risk continue being women and children.

A UN report stated, “Our research showed that 6-year-olds who had been exposed to India’s sanitation programme during their first year of life were more likely to recognize letters and simple numbers on learning tests than those who were not,” said Dean Spears, lead author of the paper ‘Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Sanitation on Childhood Cognitive Skills’.

The paper studies the effects on childhood cognitive achievement of early life exposure to India’s Total Sanitation Campaign, a national scale government programme that encouraged local governments to build and promote use of inexpensive pit latrines.

The study also suggested that open defecation is an important threat to the human capital of developing countries and that a program accessible to countries where sanitation development capacity is lower could improve average cognitive skills.

“Open defecation lies at the root of many development challenges, as poor sanitation and lack of access to toilets impact public health, education and the environment,” had said Manager of the World Bank’s Water and Sanitation Project Jaehyang So.

Ironically, in September 2011, UN rapped the USA in a report suggesting the Super Power did not provide adequate sanitation facilities for the homeless in its country. In an official report to the United Nations Human Rights Council, a top UN investigator said that the United States’ failure to provide homeless persons access to water and sanitary facilities “could … amount to cruel, inhumane, or degrading treatment.”

“The United States, one of the wealthiest countries in the world, must ensure that everyone (has access) to sanitation which is safe, hygienic, secure and which provides privacy and ensures dignity. An immediate, interim solution is to ensure access to restroom facilities in public places, including during the night. The long-term solution to homelessness must be to ensure adequate housing.”

In May 2012, in Oregon, a US Jury awarded two workers a compensation of $332 K for not being provided with ‘an on-site toilet.’ The workers who claimed they were forced to urinate in a bucket have been awarded $332,000 after a jury found they were fired for complaining to Oregon regulators about the lack of an onsite toilet. The men performed mechanical work at Portland International Airport.

Reportedly, the Juror said the company’s treatment of the men was ‘definitely despicable.’ The Juror also stated she and other jurors believed that having easy access to a toilet was ‘a basic human right.’

Rape is a serious issue and, back in India, ensuring a safe and secure toilet is within reach of every woman is a gargantuan task. On the importance of toilets, the Prime Minister is on the right track.

Hacking Hotels And Their Guests – Analysis

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By Lawrence Husick*

(FPRI) — Travelers have come to depend on WiFi networks in hotels, and businesspeople have come to expect high speed wireless access in both private rooms and public spaces, including lobbies, meeting rooms, and even the hotel gym.

Predictably, cyberspies and cybercriminals have inhabited some of these virtual spaces as well. Hotel lobbies are often seen to sprout open networks with identifiers intended to trick users into logging on. (“FreeOpenWiFi,” “Hilt0n,” and “MarriottL0BBY” have all been seen in the past month.) Security firm FireEye, however, has recently documented a new and more dangerous threat in the hotel space: a hacking campaign attributed to the Russian government sponsored, GRU-affiliated group known as “Fancy Bear” or “APT28.” (One of the two Russian groups known to have penetrated the Democratic National Committee in 2015-6.)  This campaign, evident in hotels in Europe and the Middle East, is potentially more dangerous than prior exploits, and may spread rapidly to other regions. Travelers need to be aware of the dangers, and need to take immediate steps to protect sensitive information.

The activities of these Russian-sponsored hackers are widespread and sophisticated. The name “APT” is an abbreviation of “Advanced Persistent Threat,” and is the term used in the cybersecurity community to denote an actor that is especially thorough and patient in the infiltration of computer systems and exfiltration of information. Fancy Bear has been implicated in cyber attacks against the World Antidoping Agency, the Dutch government, and against political parties in this year’s French and German elections. Information stolen in these hacks has been distributed through WikiLeaks, other web sites, and by transmitting it to media outlets such as Sputnik, RT, and others.

Briefly, the new campaign is initiated by an email “spearphishing” campaign using an attached document that appears to be a room reservation form in a Microsoft Word document file. Once opened by hotel staff, that document installs malware onto the target Windows computer that then uses exploits stolen from the U.S. National Security Agency (EternalBlue) to move laterally to infect other computers in the target network.

The malware, known as GAMEFISH, is capable of stealing logon credentials and other information from the network, and communicating this information over the internet to command and control servers controlled by unknown actors. Because GAMEFISH can attack the very computers that control the hotel wireless network, it may be able to steal information from guest computers simply using that network, even if those computers are never directly attacked or compromised. This information may then be used to attack the guest computers directly, perhaps even at a remote location and time.

This threat is by no means the only hotel-based hacking to be seen. For some time, networks in Russian and Asian hotels have been infected with computer worm and virus files of various types. During the Iranian nuclear talks in 2014-15, Duqu 2.0 malware was seen in the networks of the hotels that hosted the delegations and the talks themselves. It was believed that Duqu was an information stealing worm, capable of turning on computer microphones and cameras covertly, as well as stealing computer files. According to the Guardian, this worm is related to Stuxnet, and was thought to be used by the government of Israel as a way of gaining intelligence about the nuclear negotiations.

Because guests cannot be sure that hotel systems have not been compromised, it is advisable that such systems be avoided if possible, in favor of data carried over cellular networks which, while not immune to attack, are at least monitored more closely than commercial wireless systems in hotels. Even then, care should be exercised, and secure communications should be avoided because it is not possible to guarantee the security of cellular communications. Governments use devices called “stingrays” to intercept cellular signals. Not only can they listen to voice communications, but they are able to see text messages and in some instances, spy on data communications as well. While the sale and use of stingray devices is severely restricted in the United States, the same cannot be said for the rest of the world, and thus, care is necessary.

If a hotel network must be used, access should only be through a virtual private network (VPN), preferably one that is operated under private and trusted control, or a reputable commercial service. Virtual Private Networks are a type of data transmission service that ensures that all data flowing from a secured device goes only to a known computer system, and is encrypted from “end-to-end” as it flows to and from that trusted system. Once the encrypted information reaches the trusted VPN “server,” it may then be forwarded onward over the internet, if the VPN is configured to do so. In this manner, the VPN impedes eavesdropping on data communications because the secure link is the first thing set up during an online session.

For more information about commercial VPN services, see https://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2403388,00.asp

We all seem to depend more every day on the electronic devices in our pockets and bags, and we carry ever-greater amounts of personal and business information in them. Governments and criminals know this, as well, and have set traps for the unwise and the unwary. Hotels are just the latest venues made dangerous for us and our data. The savvy traveler will now ask, first and always, whether access to a particular system is really worth the risk involved, if it must be done over connections that are likely to have been compromised. It may be better, after all, to forego checking one’s accounts, and just to relax and have an aperitivo.

About the author:
*Lawrence Husick
is Co-Chairman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Center for the Study of Terrorism where he concentrates on the study of terrorist tactics and counterterrorism strategies, with a particular focus on technology leverage as a defining characteristic of the modern terrorist. He is also co-director of the FPRI Wachman Center’s Program on Teaching Innovation and a faculty member at the Whiting Graduate School of Engineering and the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences Graduate Biotechnology Program of the Johns Hopkins University.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI

Politics Block Solution As Mounting Debt Threatens China – Analysis

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China’s leaders fail to tamp down corporate debt levels or expectations of government bailouts should financial troubles emerge.

By Chris Miller*

As leaders of the Chinese Communist Party assembled at their secretive annual conclave at the Beidaihe seaside resort, one might think that, from an economic perspective, they could relax on the beach with few worries. Unlike in 2015 and 2016, fears that declining foreign exchange reserves would force a devaluation of China’s currency, the renminbi, have receded. Thanks to stricter capital controls and rebounding confidence in China’s growth prospects, the outflow of capital has slowed. China’s currency has even appreciated over the course of 2017. But underneath the hopeful signs a crisis is growing, and vested interests make it hard for party leaders to tackle the issues before the crucial Party Congress later this year.

The most serious dilemma China faces is not its growth rate or the value of its currency, but a tremendous buildup of debt. China’s biggest firms – many state-owned – have accumulated debt at a rate and scale with few precedents in recent history. Though China’s GDP continues to grow rapidly, the country’s debt burden has grown faster still since the 2008-2009 crisis. Chinese leaders realize that although the debt is mostly domestic something must change, but they cannot agree about who should bear the cost of reducing debt growth. All tough decisions are on hold at least until this autumn’s 19th Party Congress, when China’s leadership will be reshuffled.

Yet the longer China fails to slow debt growth, the more it risks a financial crisis as lenders lose confidence in Beijing’s ability to maintain financial control.

Unlike the United States before the 2008 crash, China’s households do not have an outsized debt burden. According to data from the Bank of International Settlements, obligations of Chinese households stand slightly above 40 percent of GDP, compared, for example, to 92 percent in South Korea. China’s central government is also not particularly indebted, with Beijing owing only 45 percent of GDP of obligations to creditors. Many Western governments have twice that level of indebtedness.

China stands out in the debt levels of its corporate sector, equivalent to 166 percent of GDP. That compares with 72 percent in the United States, 95 percent in Japan, 100 percent in South Korea, and 53 percent in Germany. Excluding small countries that operate as financial hubs, China’s corporate debt figure is among the highest on record.

The growth in Chinese corporate debt has been spectacular since the global financial crisis. Before 2008, China’s ratio of corporate debt to GDP was declining. When the crisis hit, a bout of government-backed stimulus lending from state-owned banks increased corporate indebtedness by more than 20 percentage points to above 120 percent of GDP. That much was understandable: Debt often increases as a result of stimulus. But then in 2011, Chinese corporate debt restarted its march upward, increasing from around 120 percent of GDP to over 160 percent today.

If lenders begin to fear that borrowers can’t repay their debts, they may cut lending or increase interest rates. This would force cuts to corporate investment – which has driven Chinese GDP growth – and could threaten the solvency of China’s biggest firms.

Specifics of China’s financial system have made a financial crisis less likely in the short term, but also made it more difficult for the government to change corporate behavior in a way that would reduce financial risk. Much of the corporate debt buildup is by China’s state-owned firms. In contrast to the West, China’s government plays a major role in the industrial sector, owning firms in sectors spanning from telecoms to tourism, and many lenders view these firms as having an implicit government guarantee – the firms borrow massive sums at low interest rates, with banks assuming that the government will bail them out if financial trouble emerges.

At the same time, China’s biggest banks are also state-owned and believed by many to benefit from the same implicit guarantee. Such banks can borrow far more cheaply than they would otherwise be able to do. This enables them to lend yet more to Chinese firms, thus staving off short-term crisis but increasing the scale of the adjustment that will at some point become necessary. Some analysts argue that China need not worry because the bulk of its debt is domestic and not at risk of foreigners pulling out their money. China is at risk, however, of Chinese savers pulling their money out of short-term financial products. This happened in 2007 and 2008. The US market for corporate paper – short term corporate debt instruments similar to those used in China’s vast shadow banking market – froze and firms found themselves unable to refinance.

China’s leaders, of course, realize the risk. In late 2016, Beijing began treating “financial security” as a national security risk. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made repeated statements stressing the need for “supply side structural reforms,” and his economic adviser Liu He has called for deleveraging – cutting debt levels. Beijing has coupled this rhetoric with some restrictive measures. Earlier in 2017, China’s central bank and financial regulatory bodies tightened rules governing short-term lending products. China is also beginning to experiment with allowing lossmaking companies to go bankrupt – previously it kept ailing firms alive with infusions of new credit – though the overall number of bankruptcies remains small. More recently, Beijing has cracked down on prominent and politically well-connected firms such as Anbang, HNA and Dalian Wanda, which raise money in China to buy assets abroad.

Yet despite the talk from Beijing, action on reducing debt levels remains insufficient. China’s corporate debt as a share of GDP did decline slightly in late 2016, from 166.8 percent to 166.3 percent of GDP. But the minor reduction in the growth rate of corporate debt has been counteracted by rising household debt. As recently as 2013, household debt was 30 percent of GDP and is now at 44 percent of GDP and rising. Government debt is growing, too. China’s aggregate debt levels keep climbing.

Despite rhetoric about reform and deleveraging, Beijing has failed to slow debt growth. The reason is politics. Most Chinese elite realize that debt growth must slow – but several crucial political constituencies correctly fear that reducing debt would also reduce available resources. It’s not a coincidence that management of the major state enterprises and financial institutions is dominated by children of senior leaders.

Some firms might face insolvency if interest rates rise or bank loans dry up, and others would face higher costs. Thus the bosses of state-owned firms lobby heavily against any reduction in credit provision. Similarly, China’s powerful real estate sector relies heavily on cheap bank loans to fund its rapid construction rate. A reduction in credit growth would threaten the stability of the real estate sector. Local governments, meanwhile, depend in part on land sales for funding. Any measure that hit the real estate market would also reduce the resources available to local governments.

Even as Beijing talks about reducing financial risk, a powerful array of political interests are aligned in favor of retaining the current system, whatever dangers it might pose. In advance of this autumn’s Party Congress, Xi is focused on placing his allies into leadership positions, spending political capital on that battle rather than push for financial reform. China’s leaders may refocus on the debt dilemma after the Party Congress. If not, China’s debt burden will only increase – as will the risk of a crash.

*Chris Miller is associate director of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy at Yale. He is the author of The Struggle to Save the Soviet Economy.


‘Euro Devil’: Fossil Of Carnivorous Marsupial Relative Discovered In Turkey

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Scientists have discovered fossil remains of a new carnivorous mammal in Turkey, one of the biggest marsupial relatives ever discovered in the northern hemisphere.

The findings, by Dr Robin Beck from the University of Salford in the UK and Dr Murat Maga, of the University of Washington who discovered the fossil, are published today in the journal PLoS ONE.

The new fossil is a 43 million year old cat-sized mammal that had powerful teeth and jaws for crushing hard food, like the modern Tasmanian Devil. It is related to the pouched mammals, or marsupials, of Australia and South America, and it shows that marsupial relatives, or metatherians, were far more diverse in the northern hemisphere than previously believed.

Dr Maga found the fossil at a site near the town of Kazan, northwest of the Turkish capital, Ankara. It has been named Anatoliadelphys maasae, after the ancient name for Turkey, and Dr Mary Maas, a Turkish-American palaeontologist. The fossil is remarkably well preserved, and includes parts of the skull and most of the skeleton.

It shows that Anatoliadelphys weighed 3-4 kilograms, about the size of a domestic cat, and that it was capable of climbing. It had powerful teeth and jaws, for eating animals and possibly crushing bones. Features of the teeth and bones of Anatoliadelphys show that is closely related to marsupials, but it is not known whether it had a pouch or not.

Dr Beck, who is a world expert in the evolution of marsupials and their fossil relatives, said: “This was definitely an odd little beast – imagine something a bit like a mini-Tasmanian devil that could climb trees.

“It could probably have eaten pretty much anything it could catch – beetles, snails, frogs, lizards, small mammals, bones, and probably some plant material as well. This find changes what we thought we knew about the evolution of marsupial relatives in the northern hemisphere – they were clearly a far more diverse bunch than we ever suspected.”

Most fossil metatherians from the northern hemisphere were insect-eating creatures no bigger than mice or rats, whereas Anatoliadelphys was ten times larger and could have eaten vertebrate prey.

“It might seem odd to find a fossil of a marsupial relative in Turkey, but the ancestors of marsupials actually originated in the northern hemisphere, and they survived there until about 12 million years ago”, said Dr Beck.

The region of Turkey where Anatoliadelphys was found was probably an island 43 million years ago, which may have enabled Anatoliadelphys to survive without competition from carnivorous placental mammals, such as fossil relatives of cats, dogs and weasels.

Today, many marsupials in Australia have been driven to extinction due to the introduction of the dingo, cats and foxes, suggesting that marsupials may be competitively inferior to placentals.

Spain’s Indra Makes Further Inroads In India’s Transport Sector

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Spanish IT company Indra has made further inroads into the Indian transport market, having been awarded a contract worth 4.5 million euros to deploy its contactless ticketing technology at 14 new stations on the Delhi and Noida Metro system. This also sees it further strengthen relations with the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC), a public company that is involved in the design planning and running of other major Metro, monorail in the country.

The project encompasses the design, development, supply, installation and commissioning of all technology used for access control, validation, ticket sales and card top-ups at the six new stations on the blue line between Noida City Centre and Electronic City, in the south east area of New Delhi, which has developed into a major economic hub for the mega-city; as well as at eight new stations on the stretch between Dilshad Garden and New Bus Adda Corridor on the red line, the oldest service that runs east to west across the city.

Indra will update the ticketing systems already in place in the Delhi Metro to include its technology based on smart contactless cards and tokens, and will modernize the current control center to encompass the new stations and new services, including payments via cell phone SMS messaging, with the possibility of incorporating payments via NFC or QR technology in future.

Passengers will also be able to top-up their contactless cards or buy electronic tokens for single journeys at any of the 14 new stations, either using the automatic dispensing machines or at the customer service/ticket offices at each station. Meanwhile, access control systems will allow users to validate their cards by simply passing them over the scanner.

According to  Indra, the company is set to improve the services provided to the public, making it easier and faster to access the Metro, through contactless technology and reversible steps, which can cater to different levels of demand at different times of day. Furthermore, the new system will allow shared fare management with other operators, thus opening the possibility of commuters making combined use of various modes of transport, while using different fares to cater to the needs of different users, and allowing discount fares for seniors, students, etc. Additionally, the system generates major value in terms of data, helping to optimize decision-making based on demand information at specific stations and during certain time periods.

Why Is Nagorno-Karabakh Vital For Armenia? – OpEd

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When looking on the existing conflicts one should never underestimate the importance of the historical background of the particular conflict. Thus, by having a quick glance at the Armenian and Azerbaijani history it would be easier to have some insights over one of the most complex disputes of the post-Soviet region.

For Armenia keeping Nagorno-Karabakh is very sensitive issue. If looking back into the history of Armenian nation one would see that this nation has lost so many territories over the decades, particularly the most painful lost was the territory of Eastern Armenia, which also resulted in Armenian Genocide (1.5 millions of Armenians were killed by Ottoman Turks). Thus, for the Christian nation, which constantly considered itself as a victim of historical injustice and unfortunate destiny the military victory in 1994 was a turning point.

Thus, although the land of Nagorno-Karbakh is not full of natural resources such as gas or oil, and there is no sea access, which would also be essential for the country like Armenia, but it means much more than merely a land with beautiful landscape and pleasing views for Armenian nation. It engenders hope for the whole nation, which changes the psychology of being a victim to the being a victorious nation.

For Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karbakh has different importance. In 1918, the regions of Nakhchivan and Nagorno-Karabakh, where Armenian population has been historically living, were heavily contested between the newly formed and short-lived states of the Democratic Republic of Armenia (DRA) and the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (ADR).

At that time, Soviet Union had far-reaching plans concerning Turkey, which had no actual border with its “brother-nation” Azerbaijan. Therefore, already in 1920 the Soviet Union agreed to a division under which Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan would fall under the control of Azerbaijan. Needless to mention how frustrated and disappointed were Armenians by losing this diplomatic battle. But for Azerbaijan, having Nakhchivan, which linked them to Turkey was of outmost importance. Therefore, during the whole existence of the Soviet era Azerbaijan with the significant assistance of Turkey was gradually enhancing its stance in Nakhchivan, which resulted in a dramatic decrease of the number of Armenians in that area.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in the early 1990s, as a result of anti-Armenian pogroms hundreds of thousands of Armenians fled Azerbaijan and when there was a real fear of the new genocide Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh expressed their willingness to be reunited with Armenia and to get out of the Azerbaijani control.

This situation resulted in escalation of full-scale military operations and although Armenians succeeded to win that war in 1994, on the diplomatic grounds Armenia’s capabilities were limited. With the engagement of the third parties the negotiation process became even more complicated keeping the region in the tense situation.

Thus, nowadays under the low-intensity war condition, and under the continuous external pressure by Azerbaijan on the international platforms the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic actively undertakes state-building activities. And although it has not been recognized by the UN member states yet, it has been recognized by seven US (California, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Maine, Hawaii, Georgia) and one Australian state (New South Wales). The recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic by the sub-state entities of the federal states is new phenomenon for the international community. Although these recognition is providing wide scope of cooperation with Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and in some cases that cooperation does exist (twin-cities, bilateral visits, investments in Nagorno-Karabakh), its implications need to be contextualized yet.

*Edita Ghazaryan has a Masters degree in Political Science and International Affairs from the American University of Armenia in Yerevan, Armenia.

Why Patriot Tests Are Designed To Fail Muslims – OpEd

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As a community, Muslims in India have always been burdened to prove their loyalty to the country. They are repeatedly asked to take tests of nationalism and patriotism in order to prove their love for the country. Whether it is cricket match against Pakistan or the matter of singing the national song, accusatory fingers have always been cast on Muslims, reminding them that as a community, they will always have to go through this test of loyalty.

Forget about the ordinary Muslims, even the outgoing Vice President, Hamid Ansari, was roundly criticised by the government for his assessment that India Muslims were feeling very edgy with the new government in power. He was asked to go where he felt comfortable: which meant that he was being told to migrate to a Muslim majority country. Coming from an illustrious family which was part of the national movement and himself having served the country for long, such a parting shot would continue to singe the outgoing VP for years to come. And yet one is painfully aware that such a treatment of Muslims in India is not the first nor even it is going to be the last.

They are community caught in a perpetual loyalty test. Seventy years after Muslims decided to choose this country as theirs, they still have to give these periodic loyalty tests. No other community in India has to go through this demand to display their patriotism publically. No other community can understand what it means to be a Muslim today in India. To reduce this just to the current government would be an exercise in simplification. Muslims have always had to tread a fine line due to their identity and have been punished at times for even speaking their mind. There is a way of ‘looking’ at the Muslims in the country and that way has been decades in the making. Singling a political party for the affairs on Muslims today is crass simplification and an attempt not to go into deeper introspection. Not just parties, but Muslim leaders also are to be blamed for such a state of affairs.

Madrasas have been treated as belonging to a dark sphere in Indian society. Part of the problem, of course, is with the madrasa authorities who have deliberately kept the madrasas out of any scrutiny because they have to protect their financial needs. But the bigger problem lies with successive governments who have refused to modernise madrasas and have treated the population therein as a captive vote-bank. In their desire not to interfere in their curriculum and functioning of madrasas, they have perpetuated social, economic and intellectual backwardness amongst Muslims. It is not surprising therefore that despite their existence in the Indian subcontinent for centuries, there is very little that is known about them especially by those who are in power today and who do not happen to be Muslims. The BJP has been born out of a warped understanding about Muslims. For them, the Muslims are the internal enemy: a minority which remains perpetually maladjusted due to their religion. The fact remains that their ideologue Savarkar always suspected the Muslims for their allegiance to the country because Muslims Punyabhumi (holy land) and Matribhumi (motherland) were not the same. Islam in India, despite centuries of presence, was to be treated as an eternally foreign religion.

But other so called progressive political parties are no better. During its heyday in Bengal, the then Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee termed the madrasas in Bengal as breeding grounds of terrorism. The fact remains that Muslims and their madrasas have been anything but anti-national. During the freedom struggle, they were at the forefront of the struggle against the British. The role of Deoband in cementing the tie up with Congress Party cannot be discounted. In the process, they brought scores of Muslims within the ambit of the freedom movement. Deoband must be taken to task for other problems which it has beset the community with; chief being its conservative interpretation of religion, but then there were many such conservative forces amongst the Hindu community also. Why blame Deoband alone?

It is not that those in power do not know the history of Deoband. They very well do and it is recorded in the annals of history. Then why is it that they are singling out madrasas to exhibit their patriotism? It was another matter if the UP government had sent a common circular to all government aided institutions. But what we have is the specific targeting of a community to force them to prove their patriotism. Such a move can only be a product of gross suspicion and abhorrence of a community. It is logical to ask whether the Uttar Pradesh government can carry on with its daily business despite harbouring deep suspicions about a large number of its minority population. The problem is that they have reaped benefits through such a politics of hate and suspicion and there is no reason why they are going to abandon it soon after coming to power. It was the anti-Muslim which brought them to power in Uttar Pradesh in the first place. Showing them their proper place is not just an outcome of suspicion; it is also a message to the Hindus who voted them to power that they are putting the Muslims in their proper place by humiliating them.

The Hindu Right is in a win-win situation. If the Muslims reject the move to sign the national anthem as an imposition, then they will be castigated as traitors. If they decide to sing it, then the Hindu Right will claim that that have taught the Muslims a lesson and shown their proper place. In both these situations, the die is cast in favour of the Hindu Right. The Muslims must devise a strategy not to fall into such a trap. From some of the reactions which have come from the Muslim clergy, one can only say that they have willingly walked into that trap.

*Arshad Alam is a www.NewAgeIslam.com columnist.

Is A Reverse On India’s NFP On The Cards? – OpEd

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“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” —  Sun Tzu.

If India is planning to reverse their first use policy then their answer can be found in these words by Sun Tzu. Before we begin analyzing the possibilities let’s get a basic fact clear. India does not have a defensive military posture. Those who believe this bluff by Indians are in for a surprise. Their policies in totality are offensive. They have always relied on hit and run and then act innocent. One might say they have mastered that.

An Indian Minister stated that India has gained a moral stature internationally by taking steps for disarmament. As opposed to this respected official’s Utopian beliefs, India has done the exact opposite of this. They have in fact taken the road of proliferation and rapid armament. First with nuclear submarine testing and now with the potential reversal of No-First use policy on the cards, disarmament seems a farfetched reality for them.

They have another interesting theme to their policies. They devise a plan or strategy and then like to keep it a secret but somehow accidentally or shall we say very conveniently this highly classified information is leaked out and it becomes an open secret. Then they go ahead and deny it so that their “moral stature” can stay intact until one of them comes forward and accepts it with a ‘So what’ point of view. This is exactly what they did with Cold Start doctrine and now they are doing the same with the NFP. The Defence Minister of India, Manohar Parrikar, went on to say about the NFP that why one should bound themselves and instead one can say they are a responsible nuclear state and will not use it irresponsibly. The statement clearly indicates the not so moral offensive military and nuclear stature of India.

Let’s look at it from a different perspective. India does not initiate a nuclear attack on Pakistan but they go ahead and indulge in activities like the recent surgical strike. Since Pakistan has a nuclear first use policy and is also now equipped with tactical nuclear weapons, we will retaliate and there are high chances for it to be nuclear this automatically gives India a chance to make a nuclear counter attack without even rolling back on NFP.

What needs to be very carefully observed here is that even though the first attack was not nuclear, it did come from the Indian side. This implies that their Cold Start doctrine is a facilitator for the NFP until they roll back on it. One way or another they want to trap Pakistan into making the first nuclear move, little do they know the Pakistani generals are not spaced out children who will fall into this trap.

India’s single reason to reverse the NFP is to portray their hegemonic ambitions. They want the region to know they have the ball in their court. In the course they are completely sidelining the stability of the region which will be nonexistent after a nuclear war.

It goes without saying that any wrong move by India will initiate a war and the war will most definitely take a nuclear turn from one side or the other. India is well aware of this but they still don’t want to bound themselves.

The question is that bounding yourself for the greater benefit of the region not a morally correct decision? As long as Pakistan is not provoked or attacked it will not initiate a war on its own since Pakistan is the only state who has seen war ever since independence and we have the least interest in having another one with the very hyper neighbor. However, if fiddled with, Pakistan is very much capable of defending its mainland and its interests. Pakistan will not be affected with any shift in India’s policy. Their tactic to create unrest in the country will go wasted once again.

If one is to think like a realist then India can go ahead and do whatever they want to with their policies. However if they claim to be a morally upright state with the greater benefit of the region and the world in their minds then they must not opt for such a tactic. Not only will they lose their very carefully constructed peace loving image but they will also jeopardize the security of the region.

An offensive move by India will not be taken well by Pakistan and it will escalate existing issues. Especially with the Indo-Japan deal recently put into action, they should be very careful with such policies. Japan is a very sensitive country when it comes to nuclear politics for obvious reasons. India might end up losing the deal if they show such an aggressive behavior. The region is in a state of relative stability and our very selfishly ambitious neighbor should keep regard of the fact that nothing should be done to upset this balance. This is said not because their adversary lacks the ability to counter them but because they lack the ability to bare that counter attack. We all know what that will lead to.

If India is to make a preemptive attack then they are obviously not thinking of the caliber of counter attack they will be facing which will then make them run to the international arena and ask for some consolation. While Pakistan is a peace loving country what are we to do if poked from all sides?

* Uzge A. Saleem is a researcher at SVI

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