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US, South Korean Military Leaders Reinforce Alliance

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By Cheryl Pellerin

Top U.S. and South Korean military leaders spoke to reporters Wednesday at Osan Air Base near the South Korean capital of Seoul to reinforce the alliance between the two countries and their combined resolve to deter North Korean threats.

In attendance were Army Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, Combined Forces Command and United Nations Command; Navy Adm. Harry Harris, commander of U.S. Pacific Command; and Air Force Gen. John E. Hyten, commander of U.S. Strategic Command.

Also at the briefing were Air Force Lt. Gen. Samuel A. Greaves, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency; Army Brig. Gen. Sean Gainey, commanding general of the 94th Army Air and Missile Defense Command in Hawaii, and South Korean Gen. Kim Byeong-joo, deputy commander of Combined Forces Command.

“Each of these leaders is important to us,” Brooks told local and international media members, “and they are here to have a firsthand look at our daily efforts in preserving the armistice and also in our daily efforts to be prepared to defend the Republic of Korea.”

North Korean Provocations

The briefing comes amid a series of provocations by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un — 28 in the past 18 months, Brooks said, including two nuclear tests.

Kim also threatened to launch missiles into the waters near the U.S. territory of Guam in the western Pacific Ocean in response to an annual joint U.S.-South Korea computer-simulated defensive exercise, Ulchi-Freedom Guardian, that began Aug. 21 and ends Aug. 28. But on Aug. 15, Kim apparently changed his mind about launching the missiles, according to media reports.

“Having a pause in provocations is always a good thing,” Brooks said. “That means there may be some success in the diplomatic efforts. But these decisions really have to be left up to Kim Jong Un.”

In the meantime, the general added, “we’re going to exercise, because we need to be ready. We’re a professional force, [and] this is an alliance of two very professional militaries supported by a broader coalition of the United Nations Command, and being [ready] to fight tonight if we have to is what we’ll do. … And we would certainly hope that Kim Jong Un would make wise decisions about that.”

Missile Defense

In response to questions from reporters, Pacom’s Harris said he had complete confidence in the capability of U.S. weapons systems developed to defend the U.S. homeland and those of South Korea and other allies.

“We have had 15 tests of THAAD, [and] we’ve had 15 successes,” he said, referring to the terminal high-altitude area defense element that’s part of the Missile Defense Agency’s Ballistic Missile Defense System, or BMDS.

THAAD gives the BMDS a globally transportable and quickly deployable capability to intercept and destroy adversaries’ ballistic missiles inside or outside the atmosphere during the final, or terminal, phase of flight.

“I’m not a mathematician, but that’s almost like 100 percent,” Harris added. “So I’m confident in our ability to destroy any missiles that come into our defended area, which is important. If it’s not going to be in our defended area, then why waste an asset to shoot it down?”

Also in the region, Harris said, are ballistic missile defense destroyers and cruisers that are part of the layered defense in depth, as are Patriot missile batteries deployed in South Korea, and now, THAAD.

“That’s why we have Patriot here,” he added. “That’s why, in conjunction with the Republic of Korea, the alliance decision was made to bring THAAD onto the peninsula, into South Korea. Because it’s part of an entire defense in-depth scheme.”

Providing Options

Stratcom’s Hyten said that dealing with threats from North Korea is a joint problem that the United States and its South Korean allies work on together.

“I’m a supporting commander to General Brooks and the Combined Forces Command. I provide all the capabilities that Strategic Command has in order to provide him options to deal with” situations such as the North Korean threat, Hyten added.

Stratcom’s capabilities include space, cyber, deterrence and missile defense, he said.

“We provide all those [capabilities] that give General Brooks options, … and then we work it inside the alliance to develop a collective defense of the peninsula. All those options will be considered by our military leadership and our political leadership,” the general said.

Hyten also expressed confidence in U.S. missile defense capabilities and those deployed in South Korea.

“Our missile defense capabilities that are deployed both in Alaska and in California have the ability to intercept any threat against the United States,” Hyten said, adding that he’s very confident in the capabilities deployed in South Korea — sea-based, Patriots and THAAD.

Greaves, the Missile Defense Agency director, said that great pains are taken with the systems MDA deploys, including Patriot and THAAD, “to design, build and test them both in a software lab with hardware in the loop, as we call it, as well as actual flight tests under very credible conditions.”

Operational testers in the Defense Department help craft those tests, set the metrics and “assess how well we’ve done against the threat that we were testing against,” Greaves said.

“From beginning to end,” he added, “these tests are credible, they’re robust and they’ve visibly demonstrated our ability to defend the area that the operational commanders have assigned.”


Towards An Inclusive Peace: Women And Gender Approach In Colombia Peace Process – Analysis

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By Hilde Salvesen and Dag Nylander*

The United Nations Security Council has adopted seven resolutions on the issue of Women, Peace and Security since the historic Security Council Resolution (SCR) 1325 was passed in 2000 (PeaceWomen, n.d.). These resolutions aim at ensuring women’s equal participation and full involvement in all efforts to maintain and promote peace and security, and to fight against conflict-related sexual violence. The resolutions attempt to ensure that women’s leadership and the protection of women’s rights are promoted in all peace processes and peacebuilding efforts. For successive Norwegian governments, the Women, Peace and Security agenda has been high on their list of priorities, underpinning the formulation of both domestic gender policy and foreign policy. Norway adopted its third National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security in 2015.

Since the adoption of SCR 1325, global support for and understanding of the need to focus on women’s participation and gender equality in peace processes have increased significantly. At the same time, however, parties to conflict, facilitators, and mediators have often failed to translate intentions into action and to secure the fulfilment of women’s participation and rights in negotiation agendas and peace processes.

The armed conflict in Colombia has lasted for more than 50 years. It has had serious humanitarian consequences and caused much suffering among the civilian population. The conflict has affected men and women differently, however. Whereas men are over-represented in the statistics of homicides, forced disappearances and kidnappings, women are over-represented as victims of sexual and gender-based violence and displacement (see Victims’ Unit, 2017). In this regard it is important to note at the outset that women and men have different roles both between and among themselves and are part of a broader conflict picture. Women are not only victims: they are also peacebuilders and peacemakers. Women are also combatants and perpetrators of violent crimes, spoilers, engaged actors, and indifferent citizens. The gender approach – i.e. including women’s perspectives in attempts to resolve the conflict – is hence in no way a soft issue.

The Colombian peace process: an opportunity to reaffirm the global Women, Peace and Security agenda

The peace process between the Colombian government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP) provided a unique opportunity not only to reunite a society torn apart by conflict, but also to transform Colombian society and move it towards a greater affirmation of justice and equality. It was also an opportunity for Colombians and the international community concerned with the SCR 1325 agenda to implement longstanding recommendations and best practices in a comprehensive peace process.

Together with Cuba, Norway served as a facilitator (“guarantor country”) during the exploratory talks with the FARC-EP that were initiated shortly after President Juan Manuel Santos was elected president of Colombia in 2010. Norway’s and Cuba’s role as facilitators continued when the formal peace negotiations were launched in Oslo in October 2012 and then transferred to Havana, resulting in a peace agreement in 2016. Early in the process gender was identified as one of three priority areas in Norway’s facilitation efforts.

During the negotiations the Norwegian team of facilitators worked towards assisting the parties to live up to the promises made in the Women, Peace and Security framework and the expectations of large parts of Colombian society. From the outset, these expectations were effectively articulated by a vocal, experienced and knowledgeable civil society, and in particular by the many active women’s organisations in Colombia. It is mainly thanks to them, and to the negotiators in the delegations of both parties involved in the peace process, that gender became an important issue in the talks.

The women’s movement in Colombia is strong and vocal and women also lead many Colombian NGOs. But there is no unified women’s movement bridging political divides, and several issues separate women’s organisations rather than unite them. In terms of the peace process, there were differing views on several issues, but women’s groups and the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual, and intersex (LGBTI) movement managed to unite across ideological and political divides on some fundamental issues.

There is no doubt that the normative framework for gender equality in Colombia is solid. However, this has not yet transformed into real conditions of equality and guarantees for women’s rights, and Colombia still lags behind in terms of the political empowerment of women. In President Santos’s cabinets in both his terms in office, however, female participation has been significant, responding to the mandatory 30% equality provisions in Colombian law.

Within the FARC-EP, women comprise approximately 40% of the guerrilla force. At the regional and local levels the organisation has had many female commanders and in the field the guerrillas have practised relative equality in their daily lives. The top leadership has, however, been made up exclusively of men and the organisation has not been immune to patriarchal tendencies.

The peace process – and the incremental inclusion of gender

Both the government and the FARC-EP made a promising start by including women in their small delegations at the very beginning of the confidential phase of the talks. However, in the 2012 framework agreement that constituted the agenda for the formal talks, there was no mention of the gender approach or women’s participation. The parties wanted the agenda to be as short as possible and to avoid references to international documents. The perception was that it would be difficult to mention some groups or interests and exclude others; in other words, it would be difficult to limit inclusion.

At the public launch of the peace process in Oslo in October 2012 it was evident that neither of the two delegations had made room for any women at the main negotiating table. Over time, however, the parties increasingly recognised the need to include a gender approach to strengthen the legitimacy of the peace process both at the national and international levels. This is not to say that women were not part of both sides’ efforts from the beginning of the negotiations, but their role undoubtedly became more pronounced and visible over time. One such example is the establishment of an internal group within the FARC-EP focusing on women, Mujeres Farianas. Another example is the decision by the parties to give the gender issue a prominent place in the web page for the peace process.

In Colombia, women’s groups were pushing for their inclusion from the inception of the peace talks. Because of these articulated advocacy efforts, a summit on women and peace was organised in late 2013. Five hundred women from all over Colombia gathered to promote the participation of women in peacebuilding efforts and provide input to the peace negotiations. These women agreed on three points:

  • To support the peace process;
  • to insist on the participation of women at all stages of the process; and to advocate strongly for the inclusion of concerns relating to how the conflict has affected women.
  • The Sub-commission on Gender: an important instrument to include women

The continued pressure from civil society, international bodies such as UN Women and women in the peace delegations was crucial in advocating the importance of the gender issue in and of itself. A concrete example of this was the launch in September 2014 of the Sub-commission on Gender in the talks (hereafter the gender commission). Its main purpose was to include the voices of women and review the peace agreement from a gender perspective. The commission consisted of representatives from the parties themselves. Establishing such a formalised mechanism to include the gender perspective in peace negotiations was unprecedented. Cuba and Norway each selected a gender expert and Norway supplied an international gender expert to provide technical advice to the gender commission when requested to do so. The commission could also draw on Colombian and other international experts. From the beginning the gender commission consisted of between five and six delegates from each party, including one man, despite the aim to include more. The composition varied over time, depending on the issue being dealt with and the presence of delegates at the negotiating table.

To include the voices of the women, the gender commission invited several delegations of women to the negotiations in Havana. Three delegations of representatives of women’s organisations and the LGBTI community were invited during the autumn of 2014 and spring 2015. The gender commission aimed at inviting a broad spectre of organisations representing various views, political affiliations and ethnic compositions, not only from Bogotá and provincial capitals, but also from rural areas. The format was inspired by the victims’ delegations that were invited to Havana to comment and present proposals on agenda item 5, which dealt with victims’ rights.

The direct participation of both women and victims at the negotiating table had an important impact. Firstly, testimonies and shared experiences of how the armed conflict had affected them brought the harsh realities from conflict-ridden communities in Colombia to the negotiating table in Havana. Secondly, the women brought concrete proposals to the negotiating table regarding various agenda items. Everyone agreed on the general recommendations that:

  • women must be part of decisions that affect their future (“pactantes y no pactadas”);
  • women should be included in all aspects of the peace process; and
  • an inclusive language should be used in the peace agreement.

Thirdly, the representatives met not only the gender commission, but were also welcomed by the leaders and large parts of the negotiating parties’ delegations. This was important, because the heads of delegations made a commitment to integrate the gender approach into the peace talks, for which they could be held accountable.

The presence of and recommendations from the LGBTI community in Colombia also contributed to the inclusion of specific provisions on their concerns in the peace agreement.

In addition, there were visits to Havana by female leaders, parliamentarians, and experts in various fields, including sexual violence and gender equality. UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict Zainab Bangura and UN Women Executive Director Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka were among those who met the delegations.

To include the gender approach in the ongoing discussions, the gender commission also decided that it should be represented in other mechanisms established at the negotiating table. For instance, representatives of the commission participated in the Technical Sub-Commission on the End of the Conflict, where armed forces representatives and FARC-EP commanders were discussing a bilateral ceasefire, the end of hostilities and the laying down of arms.

As the peace process approached its end, in May 2016 a group of former female combatants from other peace processes were invited to Havana to share their experiences of reintegration into civilian life. Female former combatants from Aceh (Indonesia), Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Northern Ireland, South Africa and Uruguay participated. Many of the women emphasised the opportunities a peace agreement represents, as well as the fact that the fight for women’s rights continues at full strength in male-dominated societies, as well as internally in their own organisations. The gender commission received valuable recommendations on how reintegration programmes should be designed to best respond to the needs of demobilised women. Education opportunities, job opportunities and psychosocial support were the central elements mentioned. It was vital for the gender commission, especially for the FARC-EP women, to be aware of these experiences to feed into their own imminent process of reintegration.

Reviewing previous agreements

Three partial agreements had been reached before the establishment of the gender commission in September 2014 (on rural development, political participation and resolving the drugs problem). The gender commission therefore had the daunting task of both ensuring that a gender approach was included in the ongoing discussions and remaining agenda items (the rights of victims, ending the conflict and implementation) and reviewing the texts of the three agreements reached prior to the commission’s establishment. Although the guiding principle for the whole peace process was “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”, a gender review could risk reopening discussions on substantive issues that were considered closed. Another challenge was to find time for such a gender review in the heat of negotiations on other topics, and to eventually persuade both delegations to agree on the proposed changes. The review of the previous agreements was finally concluded in July 2016 and was celebrated by a high-level event in Havana. Results of the gender commission’s work

One result of the gender review can be seen, for instance, in the agreement on rural development. The agreement now explicitly refers to ensuring women’s right to the ownership of land. It also states that women should have preference in the distribution of land through the land fund, and should be given priority access to subsidies and credits.

The mandate of the Truth Commission is an example of the results of the gender commission’s work on the agreements that followed its establishment. The mandate states that a gender approach should be fully integrated into the work of the Truth Commission and that a special working group will be established within the commission with a view to achieving this. The working group will assist in various tasks to this end; for example, by organising special hearings for women.

When the establishment of the Special Jurisdiction for Peace was announced, it was made clear that there would be no amnesty for sexual violence. Under the Special Jurisdiction and the Peace Tribunal, which the parties agreed to set up to deal with past atrocities, sanctions imposed on those responsible for crimes would depend on the gravity of the crimes committed and the degree to which the truth is told. Colombians are clearly well on their way to establishing their own mechanism for transitional justice. This mechanism will not only deal with the past, but also focus on transforming society for the future. In this way, Colombians are seeking to prevent history from repeating itself and to put an end to mass violations of human rights, including sexual crimes.

An inclusive peace agreement rejected by the Colombian electorate

The peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC-EP signed in September 2016 was by far the most inclusive peace agreement in history. Not only did it give deserved attention to the rights of women and the SCR 1325 agenda, but it also included the rights of members of the LGBTI community. Partly because of this progressive language, a narrow majority rejected the agreement in a plebiscite held on the following October 2nd. Voices from the former Colombian ombudsman, charismatic evangelical churches and parts of the Catholic Church had criticised the peace agreement for promoting a “gender ideology”, which was wrongly portrayed as threatening traditional family values.

However, the provisions in the peace agreement were fully in line with existing Colombian legislation; in other words, the agreement would not have gone further than the progressive normative framework on women’s rights and non-discrimination that already exists in Colombia. The negative campaign against the gender approach was partly due to a successful misrepresentation of the gender provisions of the agreement to mobilise conservative sectors of society against the peace agreement.

The final agreement: more stringent language on gender

After the referendum, President Santos called for a national dialogue, in particular with those political leaders that had campaigned against the peace agreement, in order to save the peace process. Following the national dialogue, the Government and the FARC-EP met during intense sessions in Havana to renegotiate the agreement. Many feared that the gender perspective was something that the parties would easily sacrifice to accommodate the sceptics. A few dedicated people worked night and day to review and refine the texts on gender.

The language is changed to some extent in the renegotiated peace agreement. It avoids the term “gender perspective” and rather includes a definition of a “gender approach”, emphasising the impact of the armed conflict on women. The number of references to “gender” is reduced, but its content is more clearly specified. For instance, regarding political participation, instead of “gender equity”, the agreement now refers to “the equitable participation of men and women”. In another example dealing with rural development, the agreement previously stated that “measures to overcome poverty should have a gender focus”. The new agreement specifies that “to overcome poverty, specific and differential measures should be implemented … to achieve the effective equality of opportunities between men and women”. To conclude, the gender focus is not weakened in the new agreement, but rather strengthened: the language is clarified and has been made more precise.

The special concerns of the LGBTI community are also maintained in the new text, especially under the principle of non-discrimination. The LGBTI community is also mentioned in the reference to “other vulnerable groups”.

Lessons learned from the peace process in Colombia

As we have witnessed in the peace process in Colombia, the mere presence of women around the negotiating table will not necessarily make a difference: rather, women must be able to influence the decision-making process. Gender equality is not just a “women’s concern”: it is the responsibility of all individuals and of society as whole, and it requires the active involvement of both women and men. It is not sufficient to establish a gender commission where women meet to discuss issues of gender equality. The work of the commission must have the full support of the delegations of the parties to the conflict, including their leaders. This is what made the gender commission in the Colombian peace process so successful.

One challenge was that the make-up of the gender commission changed over time. One of the main representatives in the government delegation resigned to become a political candidate in a regional election. Some of the FARC-EP commission members had to return to the field and were replaced by others. When new people were brought in capacity-building had to start afresh, but the involvement of more people may have ultimately had a positive effect by broadening the commitment to the gender agenda.

Perhaps one of the main lessons learned from the plebiscite is that it matters how gender is included in a peace agreement. A too repetitive and imprecise form of language on gender may have contributed to fostering the fear of a “gender ideology” and eventually contributed to the rejection of the agreement. Clarifying what is meant by a “gender approach” and specifying what this implies for each agenda item was a wise approach.

Finally, there is a need for dedicated people within the negotiating delegations to move the agenda forward. It would have been highly problematic – if not counterproductive – had the pressure for gender inclusion only come from the international community. Mainly thanks to these dedicated people in both delegations, the gender approach was maintained and the language improved in the new agreement. Another key factor for the inclusion of women was the strategic alliance between Colombian women’s groups and the strong and unwavering support provided by the international community.

Present and future challenges

So, what are the main challenges moving forward? As the guerrilla members gather in zones for normalisation, one main challenge they face is how to prepare themselves for civilian life. In terms of reintegration programmes, female ex-combatants from previous peace processes in Colombia found that programmes were not available when they needed them.

Experience from other contexts, including El Salvador and Guatemala, shows that women in guerrilla groups experienced relative equality with men in the field, but were expected to return to traditional gender roles after the peace agreements came into force. Reintegration programmes should consider the expertise and experience that female guerrillas have acquired, and permit them to find a new way of life based on their experiences and preferences.

Ultimately, the main challenge is the implementation of the peace agreement. The agreement provides for the establishment of a special unit that will ensure the continued integration of the gender approach and women’s rights into the implementation of the peace agreement. The unit will consist of representatives of six national and regional women’s organisations and will be in constant communication with the main commission established to follow up the peace agreement (the Commission for the Follow-up, Promotion and Verification of the Implementation of the Final Peace Agreement). To date, the special unit has not yet been formally established, but preparations for doing so are under way (Granados, 2017). Political, technical and financial support for this effort is essential. The peace agreement also provides for international support in terms of the gender dimension from the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, the Women’s International Democratic Federation, and Sweden.

Gender champions are essential in the time to come. More than ever, the women’s movement must unite on fundamental issues related to the implementation of the peace agreement. Internal tensions risk undermining a more concerted and powerful common influence.

In addition, priority should be given to strengthening institutions with a gender focus. This should include gender budgeting and a commitment by national and local authorities to include it in development plans and all institutional policies.

In light of the many challenges confronting Colombia in the post-agreement phase, it is crucial to ensure that gender is not de-linked from the implementation process and pushed aside as a separate issue by “more pressing” issues. Rather, priority issues should always have a gender focus, in line with the spirit of the peace agreement. For instance, a gender focus should be included in the laws that are currently being discussed in Congress for the fast-track mechanism and those that will be discussed later, and in developing the framework plan for implementing the peace agreement. Once more, in this innovative peace process Colombia has the chance to lead by example. At stake is a better and more inclusive peace for all – and an example for the rest of the world to follow.

*About the authors
Hilde Salvesen
worked at the Section for Peace and Reconciliation at the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and served on the Norwegian facilitation team to the peace process in Colombia, with a special responsibility for Women, Peace and Security. Salvesen is currently Director of the International Department at the Norwegian Centre for Human Rights, University of Oslo.

Dag Nylander was the Norwegian Special Envoy to Colombia 2010-2016 and coordinated his country’s diplomatic efforts to assist the Peace Process with the FARC-EP and the ELN. Mr. Nylander is the Personal Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for the Border Controversy between Guyana and Venezuela.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of former or current employers.

References:
Granados, M. O. 2017. “Mujeres harán seguimiento al enfoque de género en el Acuerdo de paz.” Colombia 2020: El Espectador. April 11th. http://colombia2020.elespectador.com/politica/mujeres-haran-seguimiento-al-enfoque-de-genero-en-el-acuerdo-de-paz

ONU Mujeres. n.d. “Las mujeres en Colombia.” http://colombia.unwomen.org/es/onu-mujeres-en-colombia/las-mujeres-en-colombia

PeaceWomen (Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom). n.d. “Security Council Resolution 1325.” http://www.peacewomen.org/SCR-1325

Samuel, K. 2010. “The importance of autonomy: women and the Sri Lankan peace negotiations.” Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue Opinion. November. https://www.hdcentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/48Theimportanceofautonomy-WomenandtheSriLankanPeaceNegotiations_0-November-2010.pdf

Victims’ Unit. 2017. “Registro Único de Víctimas (RUV).” http://rni.unidadvictimas.gov.co/RUV

WEF (World Economic Forum). 2016. The Global Gender Gap Report 2016. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-gender-gap-report-2016

Footnotes:
1 – The other two focus areas have been transitional justice and combating land mines. To ensure a gender perspective, one person in the Norwegian facilitation team had a special responsibility for this and was later included as a gender expert in the Sub-commission on Gender.
2 – In the Global Gender Gap report by the World Economic Forum, Colombia is 66th of 144 countries in terms of the political empowerment of women (see WEF, 2016). UN Women notes that despite the considerable improvement over the last 20 years, Colombia remains one of the Latin American countries with the least number of women in political life. The number of women in elected positions increased from 6% to 11%, and women representatives in Congress increased from 7% to 21% (ONU Mujeres, n.d.).
3 – Albeit only two of seven and one of six, respectively: Elena Ambrosi and Lucía Jaramillo Ayarme for the government, and Sandra Ramírez for the FARC-EP.
4 – UN Women played a coordination role on behalf of the international community throughout the process, including in the women’s visit to the peace talks in Havana and in synthesising their proposals.
5 – See https://www.mesadeconversaciones.com.co/subcomision-genero/comunicados
6 – In the peace process in Sri Lanka a Subcommittee for Gender Issues (SGI) was established in 2002, facilitated by the Norwegian politician Astrid Nøklebye Heiberg. In this case the committee consisted of women outside the peace delegations who reported directly to the peace table. When the peace talks collapsed in 2003 the SGI also stopped working (Samuel, 2010).
7 – Mireia Cano Vinas, currently based in Oslo with her consultancy firm Cano Gender Solutions.
8 – The victims’ delegations comprised 62% women.
9 – See https://www.mesadeconversaciones.com.co/comunicados/comunicado-conjunto-82-la-habana-cuba-24-de-julio-de-2016
10 – The new peace agreement was signed on November 24th, ratified by the Colombian Congress and entered into force on December 1st 2016.
11 – All translations of text from the agreements are the authors’ own.

The Apex Of Islamic Culture In The Land Of Fire

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In his book “Azerbaijan since Independence”, Svante E. Cornell writes: “If Azerbaijan had to be defined by a single word, that word would have to be “crossroads” – an observation made by the greatest historian of Azerbaijan, Tadeusz Swietochowski. “…Azerbaijan is both European and Asian at the same time. Azerbaijan’s importance is much greater than its small [territorial] size.”

The fatherland of Heydar Aliyev plays indeed a fundamental role in preserving Islamic Culture and Architecture, it is a cradle of civilization, home of Gülüstan Monument, Noah’s Mausoleum and of Momine Khatun Mausoleum; in the same vein the ‘Land of Fire’ has become a special place where visitors appreciate unique urban developments, natural beauty and impressive hospitality in Azerbaijan’s oldest cities, national parks, carpet museums while tasting some of the traditional wine of Kurdamir and the creamy goat cheese of Jalilabad.

While sitting in front of the statue of Sabir in Baku, a highly courageous XIX Century Azerbaijani poet whose wit and wisdom reflects the acclaimed patriotic movements and hardships of the Azerbaijani people, for me it was impossible not to write about some of the historic landmarks, cities and districts that reflect a deeply rooted multiculturalism environment and impeccable Architecture in the Azerbaijani society.

The beautiful mountainous landscapes of the Caucasus, impressive cultural heritage, and unique Islamic Cultural sites are the highlight on every major city and district of Azerbaijan, some of them are: Kurdamir District, Ganja City (the birthplace of Meskheti Ganjavi), Lankaran City, Lerik District, the City of Gazakh, Jalilabad District and Salyan District.

The historic city of Ganja is the second largest urban metropolis of Azerbaijan; it is the capital of poetry and lyrics in Eurasia. Ganja is the birthplace of Nizami Ganjavi (the icon of Azerbaijani multiculturalism and religious tolerance); Meskheti Ganjavi (the most important lyrical poet of antiquity); Hasan Mashadi Huseyn oghlu Aghayev (the Deputy Speaker of National Assembly of Azerbaijan Democratic Republic) and Nigar Khudadat qizi Rafibeyli (a distinguished Azerbaijani writer and the former Chairwoman of Azerbaijan’s Writers Union). The city is also an important financial hub where Its International Bank was chosen by Euro Money Magazine as one of the best institution of banking services among the Central Asian Countries.

Ahmed Razi, a XV Century Persian geographer would write the following about Ganja: “I have not seen a place such as Ganja anywhere else in the world. It has always a fresh look and an attractive musky scent. Its water is rosewater and its land is equal to saffron.” The advent of Islam and its powerful influence in the architecture, visual arts and literature have made Ganja a special town, a genuine tourist destination, where the Sasanian Empire of Iran and Eastern Mediterranean World have concocted with Islamic Culture certain salient historic and architectural landscapes that were inspired by the predominant faith in the region.

Moreover, the architecture environment of Ganja, shaped by religious and contemporary monuments; the Juma Mosque of Ganja, Six Large Ancient Gates of Ganja, Ganja Regional Scientific Center, Ganja Central Mosque paired with the striking natural beauty of  Goygol Lake, perhaps would be the perfect setting for Isabel Allende’s forthcoming story to be dedicated to Azerbaijani culture and women, as a well known outspoken advocate who pays tribute to the sacrifices of women, intertwining mythology and realism on her novels.

Tourists will find comfortable accommodations at the Ganja Hotel, one of the oldest destinations in the city. This hotel is equipped with forty five comfortable rooms including: two VIP rooms, seven suites, five premium and 60 standard rooms. The hotel has a top level restaurant were special European and National cuisine have earned an international reputation.

The Kurdamir District, founded in 1930, has an extensive territory of steppes where a diverse animal habitat includes: wolves, foxes, jackals, pheasants, ducks and geese. The word ‘Kurdamir’ means “Kur” (in reference to Kura River) and “Damir” (Iron), this is a region (known in the earliest times as Shirvan Province) with deep historical roots of Azerbaijan (189 km north-west from Baku). Kurdamir has a majestic and a fertile soil; it has been a very attractive site for visitors with an emphasis on tourism of adventure.

Summer in Kurdamir is hot and dry, it has a steppes’ climate, while it is located at the left banks of the Kur River. It is worth mentioning that the Vineyards of Kurdamir are very famous, many British travelers have reflected their best impressions about this part of Azerbaijan, it’s most famous grape vine is “Shirvanshahly”.

Moreover, Kurdamir has earned a great reputation with its centuries’ old tradition of carpet-weaving, making “Shilyan” the most popular carpet in the world; that is woven in the village of Shilyan. Delicious Cuisine on its restaurants and impressive hospitality among its people; makes Kurdamir a cherished city of the Caucasus. Some of the most traditional plates are served at the “Garabag” Restaurant, only 5 km west of the city center.

Passing the Kura River banks, the visitor’s eyes will be enlivened by the beautiful landscape of Naftalan, with a worldwide reputation for its oil based medical treatments that have been carried out since the 1920s. More than two thousand research papers and books have proved the effectiveness of Naftalan’s natural resources of healing and treatment of many diseases.

According to Archaeological sources the city has been a major commercial center in the XI Century AD. Marco Polo has visited Naftalan while its oil has garnered a special reputation from the Near East all the way to China and India, traded by caravansaries to many regions of Eurasia. In the early 1900s a German company was established to export Naftalan’s oil to Europe. Further research on the oil of Naftalan is currently taking place at the Azerbaijan Medical University and the National Arthritis Center. Today, the number of hotels and resorts in this region has grown thanks to the dynamic tourism policy that is implemented by the Government of Azerbaijan.

The City of Gazakh is a special place where visitors will appreciate listening to traditional Azerbaijani songs. Only a few years ago Gazakh was established as the capital city of Azerbaijani Folklore. The City of Gazakh was founded in the VIII Century by a Military Commander Marvan ibn Mahammad. According to G. Voroshityasel, an investigator of ancient Azerbaijani language, “Gazakh is a very old town. Documents written in the IX – X centuries make reference to Gazakh that the city had existed 1,270 years ago.” In late XV Century, Gazakh Sultanate was established and it included Garabag beylerbeyi, under the rule of the Safavid Dinasty.

The District of Gazakh is also known for its carpets; they are absolutely beautiful and certainly decorate the royal palaces of Norway and Denmark.

The designs and patters of these carpets are included in the paintings of famous Italian renaissance artists, including: Pinturicchio, Carlo Crivelli and Domenico di Bartolo and in the works of Dutch painter Jan van Eyk. The carpets of Gazakh are exhibited in major museums around the world, the Hermitage, the New York Metropolitan Museum, the Berlin Museum of Art, the Budapest Museum of Decorative Arts and many others.

While going further south the nature becomes brighter and more colorful; the steppes of Salyan District have many interesting attractions. The district is home to the Shirvan National Park which is inhabited by 20,000 gazelles and many other rare mammals. Next along the way is Bilasuvar with its ancient fortress of Shahriyar.

Moreover, the district of Jalilabad, is very famous for its organic cheeses and wines. The district of Masally has an abounding land with springs of fresh and healing waters. The well-known resort Istisu (“hot water”) will persuade international visitors to fall in love with Masally District of Azerbaijan. Not far from here is Lankaran, Azerbaijan’s “fruit capital”. Special climate conditions provide to the locals the opportunity to grow subtropical crops such as tangerines, persimmons, pineapples, guavas and lemons.

In Lankaran District there are also located the famous plantations of tea that have no difference in quality and flavor from classical Indian or British brands. Lankaran lands were part of the ancient Atropatena, the surroundings of Lankaran are ideal for those who want to go back in time, as it is the only place in the world, where tourists will visit forests that have taken shape thirteen million years ago. Nearby Lankaran there are many natural attractions: Yanar – Bulag (Burning Water), Yanardag (Burning Mountain) and Lake Vilash. The fantastic iron trees, chestnut oaks, the Caucasian hornbeams, alders, figs, boxwoods, ferns – make this district a special place where more than a thousand species of unique plants have been growing for centuries.

Lerik District, a land of centenarians, is located only 40 km from Lankaran. It is home to fifty people who have crossed the century old age. Scientists explain this phenomenon by unique conditions provided by the Caucasian highlands. As a matter of fact, in Lerik there is also a museum of those who lived for over a hundred years, where the guides will mention the local shepherd Shirali Muslumov who lived for 168 years.

Each cultural and natural domain in these districts of Azerbaijan represents unique pictorial languages, cultural peculiarities and architectural masterpieces. In Azerbaijan, tourists will experience a reflection of a wealth of literary works including those of Nizami Ganjavi, Hafiz and Sa’di, who have provided a tremendous pictorial expression of Azerbaijan multiculturalism in their verses and harnessed a continuously refined Islamic culture that is vivid until today from the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan) to Absheron District.

Challenges And Opportunities Of Azerbaijan’s Non-Oil Sector – OpEd

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In the years of independence, the oil industry has played a great role in the economic development of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The state budget has been enlarged significantly at the expense of revenues gained due to rapid development of oil sector.

The development of oil industry has created great potential for non-oil sector and economic development in the country’s regions. Since 2003, a number of state projects on non-oil sector of economy, including service sector, transport, social infrastructure and tourism, have been realized in these regions. However, many measures are to be conducted further to provide sustainable economic development as well as eliminate the sharp differences between the region of capital city and peripheral regions in terms of development.

The development of non-oil sector is an integral part of “Azerbaijan 2020: view to the future”, signed by President of Azerbaijan in December 29, 2012. As shown in this goal, in order to develop non-oil sector, the use of natural and economic resources as well as its efficiency must be expanded.

According to various expert estimates, the Azerbaijan’s current non-oil sector development has already led to the progress and growth of the Azerbaijan’s economy in the whole. In this regard, S&P Global Ratings notes that by the end 2017 the nominal value of Azerbaijan’s GDP will be $40 billion with 1 percent decline.

The agency claims that in 2017-2020 the trade surplus in Azerbaijan will show positive balance. In particular, by the end 2017 the positive balance will be 12.3 percent of GDP, 2018 — 12.7 percent of GDP, 2019 — 14.3 percent of GDP, 2020 — 14.8 percent of GDP.
These numbers are worth paying attention to. It is obvious that the non-oil sector development is connected with the opportunity to realize products, so to say, to expand export market.

Azerbaijan has the largest agricultural basin in the region. In this case it is high time to consider available prospects of expanding fruit and vegetable export.

Currently 90 percent of the export of agricultural output goes to Russia. According to the State Statistics Committee, in 2016 the Azerbaijan’s export to Russia comprised $409 million. So this country forms the basis of the Azerbaijan’s fruit and vegetable market. However, at the present Azerbaijan takes only the 11th place among the top Russian agricultural production importers. It’s logical that these high indexes of goods turnover can be increased. Taking into account that the Russian market is considered to be boundless, there are real prospects to build up export and correspondingly strengthen non-oil sector. Therefore the trade cooperation development should stay among the top priorities in the bilateral dialogue.

On the whole, Azerbaijan has great potential for the development of non-oil industry in the future. Its regions are rich in natural potential for development, including mineral resources, attractive landscapes and mineral water resources of tourism significance as well as fertile soil cover and usable territories.

Vietnam And China: Balancing Geography And History – Analysis

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Hanoi turns to the United States when China threatens, but values ideological connections for major-foreign policy decisions.

By Tuong Vu*

Relations between China and Vietnam have taken a dive since June, after Chinese General Fan Changlong cut short his visit to Hanoi and cancelled a cross-border gathering for the two militaries aimed to build mutual trust.

The cause of the row was an oil-drilling contract in the South China Sea that Hanoi had signed with the Spanish firm Repsol. Unlike previous occasions, this time Beijing threatened to undertake military measures if Hanoi did not cease and desist. Within a week, Vietnam indeed cancelled the contract and agreed to pay millions of dollars to Repsol as compensation.

China’s direct military threat to Vietnam indicates an escalation of tension in the South China Sea, and Hanoi’s quick kowtow to Beijing has led many to blame Trump’s inward-oriented foreign policy. “The Week Donald Trump Lost the South China Sea” was the title of British journalist Bill Hayton’s article for Foreign Policy magazine.

This is unfair. A week later, Vietnam’s Defense Minister Ngô Xuân Lịch arrived in Washington, DC, to meet with his counterpart, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis. General Lịch, the political commissar of People’s Army of Vietnam – PAVN – was known as a hardline ideologue in Vietnamese politics. Yet Lịch appeared in the American capital with a rare smile and announced that, for the first time in bilateral history, Vietnam accepted a proposal for a port visit by a US aircraft carrier.

The idea for such a visit had been floated many times – it’s conceivable that a visit could have been made when President Bill Clinton made the icebreaking trip to Vietnam in 2000. Most recently, Trump as president-elect also made the suggestion, but it took Chinese military pressure for the PAVN’s top brass to warm to the idea. General Lịch’s visit, in fact, fits a longstanding pattern of Vietnamese policy toward China and the United States. Hanoi looks to Washington for assistance only when China threatens, but in its heart, the country values Beijing’s comradeship more.

Like Vietnam, China is a socialist country. The relationship between the two communist parties goes back to the 1920s when a young Ho Chi Minh worked alongside fellow revolutionary Zhou Enlai to mobilize peasants in southern China. Few political parties can boast of such a century-long international comradeship. Soon after Mao Zedong and Zhou took power in China, they supported the Vietnamese revolution by sending arms and advisors, helping Ho’s army win a decisive battle over the French at Dien Bien Phu in 1954.

During the Vietnam War, Beijing was Hanoi’s big brother as well as its most generous financier. Beijing sent Hanoi billions of dollars in cash, food and military aid even while millions of Chinese died of starvation. For much of the 1960s, more than a 100,000 Chinese troops were stationed permanently in North Vietnam while PAVN soldiers were sent to fight in the south.

Relations turned dramatically as the war ended. Hanoi viewed Mao’s invitation for US President Richard Nixon to visit Beijing in 1972 as a despicably traitorous act. With both Beijing and Moscow courting Washington’s attention and with their victory over the Americans in 1975, Vietnamese leaders began to imagine themselves as vanguards of world revolution. Their ambition to dominate Indochina riled Deng Xiaoping, who sent half a million troops across the border in 1979 to teach the “ungrateful” Vietnamese a lesson.

The border war between the communist brothers lasted until the late 1980s. As the Soviet bloc collapsed and the US-led camp emerged triumphant, Hanoi felt threatened and quickly turned to Beijing, apologizing for the war and proposing a new anti-imperialist alliance. Although Beijing turned down the proposal, bilateral relations were restored in 1991.

To demonstrate a lesson had been learned, Hanoi leaders changed the constitution to remove anti-China passages. While Vietnam grandly celebrated the wars against France and the United States every year, the 1979 war with China was erased from public memory. State-controlled media were prohibited from publishing negative news about Chinese society, economy or politics, and editors who violated the ban were swiftly punished.

To attract much-needed foreign aid and investment once the Soviet bloc was no more, Hanoi sought to expand foreign relations, declaring that Vietnam welcomed friendship with all countries. However, an internal memo by the Politburo of the Vietnamese Communist Party showed that the party distinguished between “close and not so close friends” depending on their ideology.

Vietnam restored relations with the United States in 1995 and concluded a bilateral agreement in 2001. As market reforms gathered steam, Vietnam achieved remarkable success with many exports including seafood, rice and coffee. The United States became the leading market for Vietnamese exports, allowing the country to earn billions of dollars in trade surplus.

Despite the value of the American market for Vietnam, the United States remained in the “not so close” category in the eyes of Hanoi leaders. Washington’s frequent criticism of Vietnam’s violations of human rights infuriated them, and US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq prompted deep anxieties. As recently as 2005, PAVN still considered the United States a strategic enemy.

Across the border, bilateral relations between China and Vietnam thrived: Top leaders paid regular annual visits, as did representatives from the military, the Public Security Ministry, the Propaganda Department, the Communist Youth League and various other government organs. No wonder that by 2011 China had overtaken the United States as Vietnam’s top trade partner. By 2014 its trade with China was nearly twice that with the United States. Ironically, Vietnam had a trade deficit with China as large as the trade surplus it enjoyed with the United States.

Problems began by 2005 when China began to aggressively enforce its sovereignty claims over much of the South China Sea, dashing Vietnamese leaders’ cherished hope that the comradely spirit between the two parties would soar above narrow national interests. While pursuing several strategies in response to China’s rising threat, Hanoi consistently assigned greater weight to talks between the two fraternal parties than to multilateral or legal approaches.

When China towed a giant oil rig within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone in 2014, even as Hanoi sent Coast Guard ships to surround the Chinese naval force defending the rig, Party chief Nguyễn Phú Trọng tried to call Chinese President Xi Jinping a dozen times, hoping in vain that Xi would pick up the phone. On the streets, Vietnamese peacefully protesting against China were beaten, in some cases savagely, by security forces. Trọng later visited Washington, the first for a general secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party.

After the oil rig confrontation, criticisms of China appeared in the Vietnamese press. Nevertheless, no sign exists that Hanoi has fundamentally changed its strategy in which timid overtures to the United States are made only when Beijing acts up. Given the domination of Marxist-Leninist loyalists in the top leadership elected at the 12th Party Congress in 2016, such change is less likely.

General Lịch’s welcome of a US aircraft carrier’s visit sends a signal of displeasure more than any drastic U-turn in Vietnamese policy regarding China. The Repsol affair left Hanoi with a bruised eye, and the country wants Beijing to know that it is unhappy. Still, like an abused spouse who calls the police after a beating but then refuses to end the relationship, Hanoi will follow its heart and is not about to break away from Beijing soon.

*Tuong Vu is director of Asian Studies and professor of Political Science at the University of Oregon. His most recent book is Vietnam’s Communist Revolution: The Power and Limits of Ideology (Cambridge University Press, 2017).

The Future Of Northern Ireland: What Is Going Wrong? – Analysis

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By Crawford Gribben*

(FPRI) — Earlier in the summer, I wrote about how the results of the UK general election reflected upon the politics of religion and how these factors could impinge upon the future of Northern Ireland. Theresa May’s election gamble had proved to be a major miscalculation. With a diminished majority, the prime minister was forced to make a highly controversial agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to allow her minority government to function, gaining a knife-edge of a majority in exchange for £1bn in subsidies to Northern Ireland. The protracted discussions leading up to this agreement reflected the almost permanent irresolution of the politics of the province, as well as its politicians’ preference for bargaining and barter. Lacking information about the content of the talks, British media coverage focused on those elements of social policy in the DUP manifesto that they found toxic in comparison with the rather recently identified “British values” of pluralism and toleration. But this criticism may have been missing the mark. The bigger issue is less cultural than socioeconomic. Twenty years after the end of the “Troubles,” and with a long history of power-sharing in the devolved government at Stormont, the border issue continues to dominate the Northern Irish political agenda. Despite massive additional subsidies, and with no devolved government since January, the “peace dividend” is seriously in arrears.

Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland

There are signs that Northern Ireland is becoming a more peaceful and prosperous region. Belfast and Derry, the largest cities in the province, have been centres for massive investment, which has achieved some significant success. In 2013, Derry was made the UK City of Culture and, in 2016, Belfast’s Titanic museum, developed on a budget of £77m, was named as the best tourist destination in the world. Capitalizing on this investment, Belfast City Council and the Derry & Strabane Council are working together on a bid to become the European Capital of Culture 2023—a bid that could cost up to £1m. The creative industries are booming, and Game of Thrones, which (thanks to generous tax breaks) is filmed in the province, is reckoned to have contributed around £150m to the local economy between 2010 and 2016.

As these tax breaks suggest, the province has benefitted from significant public investment. Households in the province avoid taxation that is normative in the rest of the UK: despite their other differences, for example, Sinn Fein and the DUP have successfully worked together to prevent the introduction of domestic water charges. Whatever their other differences, politicians in the province agree that additional funding must always be externally sourced. As a consequence, Northern Ireland is the most subsidised region of the UK. It has the highest public spend per person within the UK, with last year’s spending per head of £14,020 far in excess of the £8,580 raised in tax revenue. The agreement for £1bn of investment puts the province even further in debt to the UK taxpayer. Northern Ireland’s problems are not caused by a lack of public money.

But this additional funding has not stopped the “peace dividend” falling into arrears. The province has serious economic and social problems. The disposable income of Northern Ireland households is only half the UK average. The average house price is just over half that of the UK. The children of many of these households are experiencing some of the UK’s highest rates of child poverty and enduring some of the worst child health in western Europe. Hospital patients wait for up to five years for procedures that elsewhere in the UK are completed within weeks. The province reports increasing rates of inequality and educational underachievement, especially for working-class Protestant boys. Many of the children of these households are excluded from university access. Recent statistics report that many more girls than boys, and many more Catholics than Protestants, enter higher education, even as the devolved administration is actively divesting in the sector: between 2009 and 2015, the Department for Employment and Learning grant to Northern Ireland universities was reduced by 24% in real terms, a cut that has been reflected in a reduction of over 2,000 undergraduate places for local students. Meanwhile, around 35% of young people leave Northern Ireland to pursue higher education elsewhere—and few of them return. While unemployment is declining, the government report, Building our Industrial Strategy (2017), suggested that Northern Ireland lags far behind the rest of the UK in terms of productivity rates and investment in research and development. Too many of the young people of the province are locked out of opportunity. And too many of them are also locked out of hope: Northern Ireland has recorded a rapid increase in the rate of suicides, which is now the highest in the UK, with residents of deprived areas being three times more likely than others to take their own lives. Massive public subventions cannot disguise the fact that Northern Ireland is a failing state.

These tragic statistics raise several questions. What does the province’s additional income achieve? How is it possible that the most heavily subsidised region of the UK can so dramatically fail its children and young people? And how can the Scottish government— which offers free university education, among other perks—achieve so much more with less?

These questions might be linked to another: can the province escape its tradition of sectarian politics? The drive towards politics as sectarian headcount seems irresistible. Northern Ireland has been without a devolved administration since the collapse of the DUP-Sinn Fein power-sharing government in January. The local election that followed on March 2, 2017, which witnessed a swing to Sinn Fein of 3.9%, provided results that horrified many unionists: the DUP beat Sinn Fein by only one seat and little more than one thousand votes in a result that was widely heralded as representing the end of the unionist majority. DUP and Sinn Fein negotiators failed to agree upon the terms of a new administration within the three weeks allowed for the sustention of devolved government. And so deadlines began to be extended—without the brokering of any kind of deal. Perhaps the unionists were playing for time. When it came, on June 8, 2017, the general election provided them with an opportunity to put things right. Just as Sinn Fein had consolidated its position among nationalists in the local election, so, too, did the DUP consolidate its position among unionists in the general election. The DUP benefitted with a swing of over 10% to win a record share of the vote and, it turned out, the balance of power in Westminster, where the swell of support for Sinn Fein, which continues its policy of abstention from the House of Commons, has left nationalists without any representation. The disparity at Westminster between the outsized influence of the DUP and the absence of Sinn Fein might suggest that local political fora will continue to provide the best venues for debating local aspirations. But in the absence of a devolved administration at Stormont, what can local politicians hope to achieve?

Not everything is going wrong, of course. Ballymena, in the heart of the province’s Bible belt, is listed among the happiest towns in the United Kingdom. It’s hard to know how to interpret this kind of anecdotal evidence. Maybe the unusually religious people of Ballymena have such low expectations of life that they are more easily satisfied. Or maybe they have realised a fact that evades their political leaders: that “man does not live by bread alone,” and Northern Ireland’s existential crisis cannot be solved by ever-increasing funding. But that observation is unlikely to dampen local enthusiasm about Northern Ireland’s billion-pound subvention—even if it does nothing to stop all that is going wrong in Northern Ireland.

About the author:
*Crawford Gribben
is a Professor of Early Modern British History at Queen’s University Belfast

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Spain: Jail Inmates Threaten Barcelona Terror Suspect

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The 28-year-old suspect Driss Oukabir, who is being held in a Madrid jail in connection with the recent Catalonia attacks which killed 15 people, has been getting death threats from inmates, local media report.

“We are going to slit your throat when you go out to the patio,” prisoners of the Soto del Real jail in Madrid shouted through their windows when they heard of Oukabir’s arrival, security sources told El Pais.

“F**king terrorist!” others shouted.

Oukabir, who handed himself in to police in his home town of Ripoll, told a judge on Tuesday that he had rented the van that was used in the car ramming attack in Barcelona, which killed 13 people and injured some 130 on the popular Las Ramblas street on August 17. Oukabir maintains he thought the car would be used for furniture removal.

However, Judge Fernando Andreu ruled that there were “rational and well-founded indications” of Oukabir’s involvement in the attack, and he is being held without bail on charges of murder, membership of a terror organization and the possession of explosives.

Oukabir has been placed in solitary confinement for his own protection.

Police say eight of the twelve members of the terrorist cell initially sought are dead, including the driver of the vehicle used in the Barcelona attack – 22-year-old Moroccan Younes Abouyaaqoub, who was shot dead by police. However, it was later revealed that a larger attack with explosives had been planned. Apparently, two suspected terrorists died in an accidental blast while trying to manufacture the explosive in a house in Alcanar.

Radical imam Albdelbaki Es Satty, who was one of the two conspirators killed in the blast, reportedly avoided deportation from Spain when a judge in 2015 ruled he posed “no real threat,” local media reported.

Using vehicles as weapons is an increasingly popular tactic used in terrorist attacks, which is hard to prevent and has led to extra vigilance as of late. On Wednesday, two men were taken in for questioning in the Dutch city of Rotterdam after gas canisters were found in a suspicious van parked outside a concert venue. The Dutch authorities were acting based on a tipoff from the Spanish police, but so far no available information suggests that the Rotterdam incident is linked to the attack in Barcelona. One of the detained men has been revealed to be a mechanic going out for a drink, and neither has been charged with terrorist offenses.

President Trump’s ‘New Strategy’ In Afghanistan – Analysis

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In President Trump’s speech at Fort Myer, where he talked to the many soldiers and members of cabinet, he outlined his ‘New Strategy’ in Afghanistan and South Asia.

Sixteen years into the War on Terrorism in Afghanistan, nothing has really changed from former President George W Bush, to Obama, and now Donald Trump. President Trump outlined three main pillars to his strategy in his speech.

First is to provide an enduring outcome where we can save American lives. Second, was the backlash of pulling out of Afghanistan quickly, which could create a vacuum for terrorist groups like the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and the Haqqani Network. And lastly, to protect U.S security interests in the region. In fact, in his speech, President Trump pointed out that around “20 U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan — the highest concentration in any region anywhere in the world.”i

U.S interests are vital for Afghanistan and South Asia. In the speech, President Trump outlined U.S interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan; “We must stop the resurgence of safe havens that enable terrorists to threaten America, and we must prevent nuclear weapons and materials from coming into the hands of terrorists and being used against us, or anywhere in the world for that matter.”ii Instead of withdrawing troops, the United States will re-energize its commitment to Afghanistan to prevent the spread of terrorism.

Deepening the U.S Involvement in Afghanistan

President Trump outlined three pillars for his South Asia strategy in confronting the Taliban and other terrorist groups. The first and core pillar is a time-based approach to set goals for when troops will pull back from the area, and create new ideas for further military operations. The second pillar is to show that the United States is committed to supporting the Afghan military and government in its confrontation with the Taliban. And finally, the United States must use all the tools it has to carry out diplomatic solutions with its allies, and all the major players in the region for a positive outcome to the conflict. One of those regional players is Pakistan, who has evidently granted safe havens to terrorist organizations and other groups who threaten U.S and regional interests.

Given the context of President Trump’s speech, it seems like he is tweaking Obama’s policies in Afghanistan. This was a man who was elected to lessen the entanglement of U.S involvement in far-off nations that the U.S knows nothing about and are impoverished. However, the rhetoric on the campaign trail is different from sitting in the Oval office, and the situation in Afghanistan is far more complicating than Trump expected. The Taliban has made some gains on government controlled areas near the border with Pakistan and in the hills of the northwestern part of the country. The president also highlighted that he won’t know how many troops will be deployed to Afghanistan and how long this war will continue.

The most important aspect President Trump got right in the speech was the fact that the situation in Afghanistan is much worse. The Taliban along with the twenty other terrorist networks in the country have gained ground over the government forces and have become more aggressive and ruthless of threatening U.S interests and operating on the ground. The one thing we have learned from the 9/11 attacks is that we cannot allow terrorist networks to roam around foreign grounds unchallenged because we know their intentions, and this could possibly drive President Trump to send more troops to Afghanistan.

Turning the Screws on Pakistan

The president took a very aggressive approach on an important U.S ally, Pakistan. He made it clear in his speech that Pakistan has provided “safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond.  Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our effort in Afghanistan.  It has much to lose by continuing to harbor criminals and terrorists… We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting.  But that will have to change, and that will change immediately.”iii

These comments have not been warmly received very well in Pakistan. The country is still ruled by military elites, and Pakistan has also been a victim of terrorism that has made many sacrifices as a critical front for combating terrorism in South Asia. The unstable border with Afghanistan has made it easier for terrorist networks to move freely in the region and the movement of weapons across borders has made the situation a lot worse for the security of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pakistani government has done more on the terrorism front than it did from 2002-2005, but it needs to rethink its policies of funding groups like the Taliban.

Pakistan does have some options on what direction they are willing to take on Afghanistan. Both the civil and military elites would like to review and maintain their relationship with the United States since Pakistan is one of the largest countries in the world who receives U.S foreign aid. However, their options are constrained because of the India factor and President Trump did add that India must do more in Afghanistan.

This worries Pakistan because the Pakistani perspective sees the Afghanistan issue as something that could be dominated by India. Over many decades, one of Pakistan’s goals in Afghanistan was also to reduce Indian influence on its western borders. Another thing Pakistan is worried about is President Trump asking India to intervene because this could increasingly escalate India-Pakistan relations. The United States sees India as a formidable partner in the fight against terrorism even though Pakistan is still in China’s orbit of influence.

The Roadmap to Negotiations

Sixteen years into the War on Terrorism, the U.S strategy in Afghanistan remains severely flawed. President Trump needs to face the hard truth in Afghanistan and that hard truth is that even if he sends more troops, these troops still cannot defeat the Taliban, and the United States has failed to defeat this organization for sixteen years.

Adding more troops in Afghanistan could also be a containment strategy for the U.S and this does not really sound like a winning strategy coming from the Trump Administration. We do not like to hear the word ‘nation-building’ especially after what happened after the Invasion of Iraq in 2003, but it needs to play some role in a diplomatic solution that allows the Afghans themselves to conduct home-grown nation-building that cures corruption within the government and there also needs to be a united front in Afghan society to defeat the Taliban.

If there has been any recurring theme in the history of Afghanistan, it has been the inability of any foreign power to occupy it. The British failed to do it, the Soviets created their own ‘Vietnam’ in 1979, where they sustained thousands of casualties, and the United States has failed for sixteen years with their difficulties as well. President Trump reiterated in his speech that the United States is not looking to occupy Afghanistan, but it is looking to protect the American people from another 9/11, and to bring peace and stability to the Afghan government, and its people.

Notes:
i. “Remarks by President Trump on the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia” August 21, 2016 White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/21/remarks-president-trump-strategy-afghanistan-and-south-asia
ii. “Remarks by President Trump on the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia” August 21, 2016 White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/21/remarks-president-trump-strategy-afghanistan-and-south-asia
iii. “Remarks by President Trump on the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia” August 21, 2016 White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/21/remarks-president-trump-strategy-afghanistan-and-south-asia


New 7th Fleet Commander Sawyer Arrives In Yokosuka, Japan

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Vice Adm. Phil Sawyer, commander of U.S. 7th Fleet, arrived in Yokosuka Aug. 25, after assuming command Aug. 23, according to a Navy press release.

Prior to his arrival to Japan, Sawyer participated in the International Maritime Security Symposium hosted by the Indonesian Navy in Bali, Indonesia.

As reported, Adm. Scott Swift, commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet, Wednesday named to the post after relieving Vice Adm. Joseph Aucoin, due to a loss of confidence in his ability to command.

Aucoin was relieved of command after four accidents involving Navy ships in the Pacific this year, the latest being the collision involving the guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain with the merchant vessel Alnic MC on August 21.

A career submariner, Sawyer has extensive experience as a commander in the Indo-Asia-Pacific. His most recent assignment was deputy commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii. Before that, he was commander, U.S. Submarine Forces Pacific, also in Hawaii; and commander, Submarine Group 7/ Task Force 54 and 74 in Yokosuka. His afloat commands were USS La Jolla (SSN 701) and Submarine Squadron 15 in Guam.

U.S. 7th Fleet is the largest of the U.S. Navy’s forward deployed fleets. At any given time there are roughly 50-70 ships and submarines, 140 aircraft, and approximately 20,000 Sailors in the region. Seventh Fleet’s area of operation spans more than 124 million square kilometers, stretching from the International Date Line to the India/Pakistan border; and from the Kuril Islands in the North to the Antarctic in the South.

US Navy Identifies Second Deceased USS John S. McCain Sailor

Damage to the portside is visible as the guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) steers towards Changi Naval Base, Republic of Singapore, following a collision with the merchant vessel Alnic MC while underway east of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Joshua Fulton.
Damage to the portside is visible as the guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) steers towards Changi Naval Base, Republic of Singapore, following a collision with the merchant vessel Alnic MC while underway east of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Joshua Fulton.

In a separate press release, the Navy said that divers recovered and identified remains of 26-year-old USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) Sailor, Electronics Technician 3rd Class Dustin Louis Doyon, of Connecticut, Aug. 24.

More divers and equipment arrived overnight to continue search and recovery operations for eight missing sailors inside flooded compartments of the ship.

Earlier Thursday, divers recovered the remains of 22-year-old Electronics Technician 3rd Class Kenneth Aaron Smith from New Jersey.

The search continues for the remains of eight other sailors.

Afghanistan Ranks Second For Asylum Seekers In EU

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In 2016, Afghanistan ranked second in the top countries of origin in EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland countries, with more than 175,000 applicants seeking asylum. In the first seven months of 2017, more than 28,000 applications have been lodged in the region by Afghans, still ranking second.

These are the findings by the European Asylum Support Office (EASO), which published a Country of Origin Information (COI) Report entitled ‘Afghanistan Key socio-economic indicators, state protection, and mobility in Kabul City, Mazar-e Sharif, and Herat City’.

In addition, the Afghan applications constitute the largest backlog of all countries of origin. At the end of July 2017, there were more than 93,000 asylum applications from Afghan nationals in the EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland countries pending at first instance.

The report provides a general description of the socio-economic situation in three cities in Afghanistan – Kabul, Mazar-e Sharif and Herat – covering the following topics: economic growth; employment; poverty; food security; access to education; health care; housing; and coping strategies.

The report also looks into actors of protection, focusing both on different branches of the Afghan National Security Forces and the formal justice system. Finally, travel into these three cities is researched by looking into restrictions or requirements on travel in Afghanistan and ways of travelling by domestic air traffic.

White House Imposes Sanctions On Venezuelan ‘Dictatorship’

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US President Donald J. Trump signed on Friday an Executive Order imposing new financial sanctions on what the White House described as the “dictatorship in Venezuela.”

Trump’s new action prohibits dealings in new debt and equity issued by the government of Venezuela and its state oil company PDVSA. It also prohibits dealings in certain existing bonds owned by the Venezuelan public sector, as well as dividend payments to the government of Venezuela.

The White House said that to mitigate harm to the American and Venezuelan people, the Treasury Department is issuing general licenses that allow for transactions that would otherwise be prohibited by the Executive Order. These include provisions allowing for a 30-day wind-down period; financing for most commercial trade, including the export and import of petroleum; transactions only involving Citgo; dealings in select existing Venezuelan debts; and the financing for humanitarian goods to Venezuela.

The US, and many other countries, has been critical of the elections that Venezuela held in July to approve a new government body, the National Constituent Assembly. The National Constituent Assembly is now responsible for rewriting the country’s constitution. The results of that election have been labelled as being “illegitimate,” with various countries saying that they won’t recognize the National Constituent Assembly, whose members support Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, and which is aimed at replacing the National Assembly that is led by the opposition.

In Friday’s statement, the White House said, “The Maduro dictatorship continues to deprive the Venezuelan people of food and medicine, imprison the democratically-elected opposition, and violently suppress freedom of speech. The regime’s decision to create an illegitimate Constituent Assembly—and most recently to have that body usurp the powers of the democratically-elected National Assembly—represents a fundamental break in Venezuela’s legitimate constitutional order.”

According to the White House, “In an effort to preserve itself, the Maduro dictatorship rewards and enriches corrupt officials in the government’s security apparatus by burdening future generations of Venezuelans with massively expensive debts. Maduro’s economic mismanagement and rampant plundering of his nation’s assets have taken Venezuela ever closer to default. His officials are now resorting to opaque financing schemes and liquidating the country’s assets at fire sale prices.”

Vice President Mike Pence has said that in Venezuela, “we’re seeing the tragedy of tyranny play out before our eyes.”

According to the White House, the new measures “are carefully calibrated to deny the Maduro dictatorship a critical source of financing to maintain its illegitimate rule, protect the United States financial system from complicity in Venezuela’s corruption and in the impoverishment of the Venezuelan people, and allow for humanitarian assistance.”

The White House stressed that it is not alone in condemning the Maduro regime. “Through the Lima Declaration of August 8, our friends and partners in the region refused to recognize the illegitimate Constituent Assembly or the laws it adopts. The new United States financial sanctions support this regional posture of economically isolating the Maduro dictatorship.”

Tech Experts Call For Outright Ban On AI Lethal Weapons

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Tech leaders have written an open letter to the UN asking for a ban on lethal autonomous weapons which, they state, could permit armed conflict to be fought at a scale greater than ever, and at timescales faster than humans can comprehend.

Tesla’s Elon Musk, Google’s Mustafa Suleyman are among 116 of the world’s leading robotics and artificial intelligence pioneers who have come together to write an open letter to the UN asking for a ban on the development and use of autonomous weaponry.

In December 2016 the UN voted to begin formal talks over the future of such weapons, including tanks, drones and automated machine guns.

So far, 19 member states have called for an outright ban on such weapons.

Toby Walsh, a professor of artificial intelligence at the University of New South Wales, Australia, is one of the organizers behind the letter.

Quoted in the UK’s Independent newspaper, Prof Walsh explained, “Nearly every technology can be used for good and bad, and artificial intelligence is no different. It can help tackle many of the pressing problems facing society today: inequality and poverty, the challenges posed by climate change and the ongoing global financial crisis.”

“However,” Walsh warned, “the same technology can also be used in autonomous weapons to industrialize war. We need to make decisions today choosing which of these futures we want.”

Released by The Future Life Institute the letter says: “Lethal autonomous weapons threaten to become the third revolution in warfare. Once developed, they will permit armed conflict to be fought at a scale greater than ever, and at timescales faster than humans can comprehend.”

“These can be weapons of terror, weapons that despots and terrorists use against innocent populations, and weapons hacked to behave in undesirable ways. We do not have long to act. Once this Pandora’s box is opened, it will be hard to close. We therefore implore the High Contracting Parties to find a way to protect us all from these dangers.”

The letter was presented in Melbourne, Australia, at the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI), which draws many of the world’s top artificial intelligence researchers.

In 2015, at the last IJCAI meeting, Walsh released another open letter calling on countries to avoid engaging in an AI arms race. To date, that previous letter, which had the physicist Stephen Hawking as a co signatory, has been signed by over 20,000 people, including over 3,100 AI/robotics researchers.

The UN’s Review Conference of the Convention on Conventional Weapons had unanimously agreed to start formal discussions on the prohibition of autonomous weapons. The group was due to meet on August 21, but has reportedly been delayed until November, according to the online magazine Fortune.

Cordis source: Based on media reports

In Tit-For-Tat Qatar Closes Chad’s Embassy In Doha

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Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said that it is closing the embassy of the Republic of Chad in Doha in reaction to that country closing Qatar’s embassy in N’Djamena. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry that Chad’s diplomats and embassy staff have 72 hours to leave the country.

In a statement, the Qatar’s Foreign Ministry expressed its rejection and condemnation of the reasons contained in a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Chad concerning the closure of the Embassy of the State of Qatar in N’Djamena.

Director of the Information Office at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Ahmed bin Saeed Al Rumaihi, voiced Qatar’s rejection of the allegations contained in the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Chad saying that they are baseless.

According to the ambassador the timing of the decision of the Government of Chad closing the Embassy of the State of Qatar in N’Djamena, “clearly reveals that this decision comes within the campaign of political blackmail against the State of Qatar with the intention of joining the siege countries for very well known reasons.”

Interview With ‘Virtual Terror’ Author Daniel Wagner

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Daniel Wagner is Managing Director of Risk Solutions at Risk Cooperative, a D.C.-based specialty strategy, risk and capital management firm. He has published more than 500 articles on risk management and current affairs for a wide variety of publications, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Huffington Post, South China Morning Post and The National Interest, among many others.

Mr. Wagner was interviewed by Russell Whitehouse, Associate Editor at the International Policy Digest. He is also a freelance social media manager/producer, 2016 Iowa Caucus volunteer and a political policy essayist for the Eurasia Review and Modern Diplomacy.

Virtual Terror: 21st Century Cyber Warfare by Daniel Wagner.
Virtual Terror: 21st Century Cyber Warfare by Daniel Wagner.

Russell Whitehouse: First and foremost, what inspired you to write your new book, “Virtual Terror: 21st Century Cyber Warfare?”

Daniel Wagner: I surveyed some of the literature on cybersecurity and felt that much of what I read was dated and based on conventional definitions of terrorism. The cyber arena has changed all that. I have crafted a new definition for cyberterrorism (“Virtual Terrorism”) and put some real thought into writing a book that educates people on what the phenomenon is really all about. My view is that the best way to fight it is to help ensure that as many people as possible understand what it is, what some of the challenges are in fighting it, and what can do about it. The subjects covered in the book range from governments and private sector to drones and robots to social media and some psychological implications of cyberterrorism.

RW: 80% of North Korea’s missile tests have failed, with a lot of those failures being attributed to American hackers. How soon do you think it will be before major military powers like the US and China have to worry about their deadly hardware being hacked and used in terrorist attacks?

DW: Regarding North Korea, it is really a testament to what the Kim regime has achieved that it has endured so much in the way of sanctions and anti-missile hacking and has still been able to successfully create a nuclear weapons program and test intercontinental ballistic missiles. One of the characteristics of Virtual Terrorism is that it allows countries like North Korea (and Iran) to punch well above their weight in the cyber arena, and conduct their own form of ‘diplomacy’ on the cyber battlefield. These countries already attack the US and other countries – all countries with the capability to do so, do so. The real challenge is to be able to identify when such cyberattacks occur, and then to be able to block them. It’s an ongoing battle.

RW: A rogue actor could potentially kill thousands of hospital patients by shutting down their power or threaten mass starvation by knocking out the food supply chain’s servers and equipment. Will civil infrastructure e-terror attacks become commonplace in the near future?

DW: As is discussed in the book, the medical profession endures a significant portion of cyberattacks. The personal information medical services routinely require from patients makes it a target rich environment. Hospitals have already been the subject of numerous ransomware attacks, and they often pay the ransom because critical infrastructure necessary to operate and sustain life has been threatened or forced to stop functioning. It is a certainty that more and more civil infrastructure will become the subject of cyberattacks in the future. The question really becomes, is any type of infrastructure safe from cyberattack?

RW: How big a threat are hackers to ePayment systems like PayPal & e-currencies like Bitcoin? Are they no more of a nuisance than bank robbers or could they potentially steal billions at a time from companies and consumers?

DW: Financial services are also, not surprisingly, the target of frequent cyberattacks, despite the billions of dollars banks around the world spend in an effort to achieve cyber resiliency. If sophisticated hackers want to target any ePayment system or crypto currency, they can do so. Given the amount of money at stake, there is little reason to believe they would not become a target going forward. It has been estimated that the cybercrime ‘business’ is already larger than the global drugs trade, which is itself a multi-trillion-dollar business. Cybercriminals have already successfully stolen hundreds of millions of dollars from the sector.

RW: In the concluding chapter of your book, you talk about imposing legal liabilities on software companies whose software gets hacked. Where would you draw the line on this complex, amorphous issue?

DW: This is a great example of how the nexus between the lobbying business in Washington can end up making an already difficult challenge even worse. It is the desire of software companies and other firms in the cyber sphere to avoid legal liability in general that prevents more progress from being made in crafting a more robust response to virtual terrorists. My view is that it is incumbent upon these developers to take greater responsibility when things go wrong with their products. If they are doing their jobs well, the likelihood of being attacked would be greatly reduced. If their products are knowingly produced with flaws, it seems reasonable to me that they be held to account. That said, they cannot be held responsible for every instance of hacking, or for product flaws that were not known when they were produced. As is often the case with ‘the law’, we should seek to introduce the concept of reasonableness in an attempt to get everyone to agree to a more palatable approach to this important issue.

RW: What advice would you give to lawmakers & law enforcement officials wishing to crack down on The Deep Web’s international contraband markets?

DW: I was heartened to learn, earlier this summer, that the US government had closed AlphaBay – one of the largest and best known “Dark Web” marketplaces. It illustrated that it is indeed possible to crack down on thriving underground marketplaces. The issue boils down to how many resources can be devoted to fighting a single marketplace, how the Dark Web can be monitored, and whether meaningful laws can be crafted and enforced. This evolving landscape is so broad and deep that it is tough to imagine them all being shut down, but I would certainly like to see more, and additional significant marketplaces, similarly shut down to force both buyers and sellers to modify their sales and purchasing habits.

RW: You briefly mention the fact that AI will revolutionize the labor force. Will AI merely enhance the average worker’s experience & create new job opportunities like in The Jetsons, create unparalleled income inequality like in Elysium, or wipe out all work and create a race of infantilized humans like in Wall-E and The Time Machine?

DW: I should think it will be some combination of the three, with varying degrees of labor force penetration by sector and job type. While I do not believe that AI will ‘wipe out’ work, I do think there is every reason to believe that it will ultimately make humans generally less essential to getting things done. In the book I discuss the dangers of hacking robots, drones, and AI. Anything linked to the Internet can be hacked, so as AI becomes more prominent and more powerful, the potential ramifications of such hacks have frightening implications.

RW: You mentioned in passing China’s “social-credit system”. Can you go more in depth about what it tried to accomplish and why it failed?

DW: China is attempting to create a system in which it ‘knows all’ about its citizens – from their spending habits to their political persuasions – and it is doing so by combining data with extremely personal applications. While currently being deployed on a limited basis, the Chinese government intends to roll the idea out nationwide. Since India’s Aadhaar national electronic identification system has been successfully used to register more than one billion Indians in a central electronic data system, there is no reason to believe that the Chinese government’s intentions in this regard cannot be achieved. Earlier versions of the social credit system failed for a variety of reasons, but the government intends to learn from earlier mistakes to generate a system that is even broader in scope.

RW: How does China’s Great Firewall work?

DW: China’s censorship system, known as the Great Firewall (also known as the Golden Shield), is its effort to attempt to restrict the free flow of information in and out of the country via the Internet. The Chinese government is doubling down on its effort to maintain control of the Internet within its borders, while also endeavoring to increase the amount of control it has over the Internet outside of its borders.

RW: How can VPNs help individuals protect the online security of individuals?

DW: Millions of Chinese citizens have for years circumvented the Great Firewall by using a VPN, which allows unfettered access to any website… The Chinese government will completely block access to much of the Internet inside the country as part of its effort to suppress dissent and maintain the Chinese Communist Party’s control on power. In 2017, the government ordered China’s three telecommunications companies—China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom (all state-owned)—to block access to VPNs by February 2018.

RW: What are the particular benefits of VPNs for people in Internet-censored countries like China and Saudi Arabia?

DW: Individual Internet users can benefit from use of a VPN to circumvent government censorship or connect to proxy servers for the purpose of protecting personal identity and location. However, some Internet sites block access to known VPN technology.

Phoenicid Meteor Shower From Dead Comet Arises Again After 58 Years

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The Phoenicid meteor shower (named after the constellation Phoenix) was discovered by the first Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition on December 5, 1956, during their voyage in the Indian Ocean. However, it has not been observed again. This has left astronomers with a mystery: where did the Phoenicids come from and where did they go?

Two Japanese teams have found an answer to these questions by linking the Phoenicid meteor shower to a vanished celestial body, Comet Blanpain. This comet appeared in 1819 for the first time and then disappeared. In 2003 astronomers discovered a minor body moving along the same orbit as Comet Blanpain had over 100 years ago and showed that it was the remains of Comet Blanpain. The iconic coma and tail of a comet are made of gas and dust which escaped from the surface of the nucleus. The reason why Comet Blanpain reappeared as an asteroid was probably because all the gas and dust have escaped from this central body. Now rather than calling the object a “comet” it might be more accurate to refer to it as an “asteroid.”

Although all of the gas and dust have escaped from Comet Blanpain into space, they now form a dust trail which revolves along almost the same orbit as Comet Blanpain itself, and gradually spread along the orbit. When such a dust trail encounters the Earth, the dust particles impinge into the atmosphere and ablate, which are observed as meteors.

Assuming that Comet Blanpain is the parent body of the Phoenicids, the teams performed calculations and predicted that the Phoenicids should be observed again on December 1, 2014. Following this prediction, the two teams of Japanese astronomers carried out a campaign of observation. One team led by Yasunori Fujiwara, a graduate student at the Department of Polar Science, SOKENDAI(The Graduate University for Advanced Studies), and Takuji Nakamura, a professor of the National Institute of Polar Research/SOKENDAI, traveled to North Carolina, U.S.A., and observed there. The other team led by Mikiya Sato, an astronomical officer at Kawasaki Municipal Science Museum, and Junichi Watanabe, a professor of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan/SOKENDAI, visited La Palma Island in the Spanish territory off the West coast of Africa for observations. The weather condition at the former site was comparatively good, but more clouds covered at the latter site. Therefore, Sato’s team supplementary used data from other sources such as NASA’s All Sky Fireball Network and radar observations at the University of Western Ontario, Canada.

Just because meteors appeared, doesn’t mean they are part of the Phoenicid meteor shower; Earth is bombarded by a constant background of sporadic meteors every night. In order to distinguish Phoenicids from sporadic meteors, both teams analyzed the data, by back-tracing each meteor trail to distinguish the meteor shower. If many meteors come from the same point in the sky, then they are part of the same meteor shower. Out of the 138 meteors observed at North Carolina, 29 were identified as Phoenicids. The Phoenicid activity peaked between 8 pm to 9 pm local time, very close to the predicted peak of the Phoenicid meteor shower, which was 7 pm to 8 pm. This fact has further supported that the observed meteors back-traced to the Phoenicid radiant are surely from Phoenicid meteor shower. The data collected by the other sources also supported this result.

But not everything matched the predictions. One discrepancy between the prediction and the observations was that the number of Phoenicids observed was only 10% of the prediction. This indicates that Comet Blanpain was active, but only to a limited extent when the observed meteors were released from the comet when it approached the Sun in the early 20th Century. To summarize, the observed meteor shower is the first example for the astronomers where the evolution of a comet has been estimated. Fujiwara enthusiastically states, “we would like to apply this technique to many other meteor showers for which the parent bodies are currently without clear cometary activities, in order to investigate the evolution of minor bodies in the Solar System.”

Fujiwara’s research is being published in the “Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan,” and Sato’s research will appear in the journal “Planetary and Space Science” very soon.


Manganese In Underground Drinking Water Cause For Concern

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Underground drinking water sources in parts of the U.S. and three Asian countries may not be as safe as previously thought due to high levels of manganese, especially at shallow depths, according to a study led by a researcher at the University of California, Riverside. Manganese, a metal that is required by the body in tiny amounts, can be toxic at elevated levels, particularly in children.

Samantha Ying, an assistant professor of environmental sciences in UCR’s College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, led the study, which was published recently in Environmental Science & Technology. The paper describes manganese levels that exceed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines in groundwater wells in Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, and the Glacial Aquifer, which spans 26 states in the northern U.S. and provides drinking water to more than 41 million Americans. Of the four regions, the Glacial Aquifer had the fewest contaminated wells.

While groundwater can be contaminated with a number of heavy metals, more emphasis has been placed on assessing the levels of arsenic than manganese, although the latter also poses a threat to human health. Levels of arsenic, a known carcinogen above the WHO’s guideline of 10 parts per billion (ppb), are enforced by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the U.S. and similar agencies in other countries. Although the WHO suggests a health-based limit of 400 ppb, manganese is not listed as a contaminant on the EPA’s National Primary Drinking Water Regulations, and therefore the levels are not monitored or enforced.

A growing number of studies have linked abnormal manganese concentrations in the brain to neurological disorders similar to Parkinson’s disease, and elevated levels in children may negatively impact neurodevelopment and cognitive performance.

In the current study, the researchers collected and analyzed chemical data from 16,000 wells in the Glacial Aquifer, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Mehta Basin in Bangladesh, the Mekong Delta in Cambodia, and the Yangtze River Basin of China. The researchers studied the levels of arsenic and manganese at a range of depths, showing that, in general, arsenic levels increased with depth, while manganese levels decreased with depth.

When accounting for both metals at levels suggested by the WHO, the percentage of contaminated wells across all depths increased as follows:

-Glacial Aquifer (U.S): 9.3 percent contaminated when considering arsenic only; increased to 16.4 percent when considering arsenic and manganese.

-Ganges-Brahmaputra-Mehta Basin (Bangladesh): 44.5 percent contaminated when considering arsenic only; increased to 70 percent when considering arsenic and manganese.

-Mekong Delta (Cambodia): 10 percent contaminated when considering arsenic only; increased to 32 percent when considering arsenic and manganese.

-Yangtze River Basin (China): 19 percent contaminated when considering arsenic only; increased to 88 percent when considering arsenic and manganese.

Ying said omitting manganese from water monitoring protocols means public health officials are dramatically overestimating the number of safe wells in some regions.

However, while arsenic contaminated wells should be avoided completely, manganese contaminated wells can be treated inexpensively or be used for agriculture rather than drinking water.

“Providing access to safe drinking water is a global challenge that is increasing the demand for drinking water from underground sources,” Ying said. “However, due to increasing knowledge on the detrimental impact of manganese on human health, particularly on children, manganese levels in these sources should be monitored more closely and governments should consider introducing manganese drinking water standards.

Ying said since the highest manganese concentrations were not found at the same depths as the highest arsenic concentrations, these contaminants can and should be evaluated separately to ensure groundwater is fit for human consumption or agricultural use.

Hezbollah In Talks With Islamic State

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Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah group Hassan Nasrallah pinpointed “a channel of negotiation” between his party and the so-called Islamic State (IS) on the latter pulling out from the eastern border areas.

In a televised speech Thursday evening, Nasrallah said fighting and negotiation are now the two approaches to dealing with the IS militants after tightening the noose on them from the Lebanese and Syrian sides.

The aim of negotiation is to force IS to withdraw from the border areas and determine the fate of the Lebanese soldiers who were kidnapped by the militants in Arsal battles three years ago, he said.

Nasrallah ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire deal with the IS group before they agree to account for the missing soldiers and pull out from the border areas.

Hezbollah engaged in the talks with the IS without mandate from, or coordination with the Lebanese government but any deal with the group must be approved by Syria, he added.

The Lebanese army, backed by Hezbollah, have been in battles with the IS since Saturday in the eastern mountainous regions of Jroud Arsal, Ras Baalbek and Qaa near the borders with Syria.

The military operation, codenamed Fajr Al-Jroud, led to restoration of 100 sq. km. from the 120 sq. km. area previously controlled by IS.

Original source

Volkswagen Engineer Sentenced For Role In Conspiracy To Cheat US Emissions Tests

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A Volkswagen engineer was sentenced Friday by U.S. District Judge Sean F. Cox of the Eastern District of Michigan to 40 months in federal prison, and two years of supervised release, for his role in a nearly 10-year conspiracy to defraud US regulators and Volkswagen customers by implementing software specifically designed to cheat emissions tests in hundreds of thousands of Volkswagen “clean diesel” vehicles sold in the U.S.

During the hearing, the Court noted that the sentence took into consideration the defendant’s cooperation in the investigation and prosecution of the company and others.

James Robert Liang, 63, of Newbury Park, Calif., pleaded guilty last year to one count of conspiracy to defraud the U.S., commit wire fraud and violate the Clean Air Act.

In connection with his guilty plea, the defendant admitted that he was employed by Volkswagen AG (VW) from 1983 until May 2008, working in its diesel development department in Wolfsburg, Germany. Beginning in about 2006, he and his co-conspirators began to design a new “EA 189” diesel engine for sale in the U.S.

When Liang and his co-conspirators realized that they could not design a diesel engine that would meet the stricter U.S. emissions standards, they designed and implemented software to recognize whether a vehicle was undergoing standard U.S. emissions testing on a dynamometer, versus being driven on the road under normal driving conditions (the defeat device), in order to cheat U.S. emissions tests. VW tasked Liang with making the defeat device work by calibrating it to recognize specific U.S. emissions tests’ drive cycles. In May 2008, Liang moved to the U.S. to assist in the launch of VW’s new “clean diesel” vehicles in the U.S. market. While working at VW’s testing facility in Oxnard, California, he held the title of Leader of Diesel Competence.

Liang further admitted that, for over eight years, employees of VW and its U.S. subsidiary met with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to seek the certifications required to sell each model year of its vehicles to U.S. customers. During these meetings, some of which Liang personally attended, Liang’s co-conspirators lied to the regulators by telling them that the VW diesel vehicles complied with U.S. emissions standards. Instead, these diesel vehicles were cheating the U.S. emissions test through use of the defeat device.

Liang admitted that for each new model year from 2009 through 2016, Liang’s co-conspirators continued to falsely and fraudulently certify to EPA and CARB that VW diesel vehicles met U.S. emissions standards and complied with the Clean Air Act. Liang further admitted that he and his co-conspirators knew that VW falsely marketed VW diesel vehicles as “clean diesel” and environmentally-friendly, while, at the same time, promoting the vehicles’ increased fuel economy, a result achieved by using the defeat device. At the same time, Liang and his co-conspirators also continued to improve and refine the defeat device to better recognize when the VW diesel vehicles were being tested versus being driven on the road.

Liang also admitted that he helped his co-conspirators continue to lie to the EPA, CARB and VW customers even after the regulatory agencies started raising questions about the vehicles’ on-road performance following an independent study commissioned by the International Council on Clean Transportation, which showed that the diesel vehicles’ emissions on the road were more than 30 times higher than shown on the dynamometer.

China’s Nuclear Program: Modernizing Or Multiplying? – Analysis

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By Allyson Rimmer*

China, one of five countries allowed to possess nuclear weapons by the Treaty for the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), has been accused of expanding the number of nuclear warheads at its disposal. It is believed to be the only NPT Nuclear Weapon State (NWS) that is doing so. In contrast, some analysts claim that China is not expanding its nuclear arsenal but rather modernising it. If the latter is the case, then there is nothing unique about China’s actions. The US, Russia, France and the UK are all engaging in qualitative upgrades to both warheads and their delivery systems in response to technological advances and changing operational requirements.

Currently, it is estimated that China has a nuclear stockpile of approximately 270 warheads. It is believed by some to be in the process of fabricating more. With such advancements, China’s proliferation pattern is more akin to what other Asian nuclear states (India, Pakistan and North Korea) are doing. Unlike these non-NPT nuclear weapons possessors, China is obligated under the NPT to reduce its nuclear weapons. Accusations concerning China’s expansion, if true, mean that China’s nuclear strategy is in direct conflict with the goals of nuclear abolition. An article published in 2014 by the South China Morning Post claimed that a Chinese military document had announced an increase in the number of warheads in their arsenal, both nuclear and conventional. Other reputable sources – Carnegie Endowment, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute , Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and the Nuclear Threat Initiative expressed similar opinions about China’s nuclear weapons, though all contend that accretions to the warhead stockpile are happening at an extremely slow pace. These assertions are based largely on China’s known ability to generate nuclear weapons due to their domestic access to fissile material. Although these claims do have circumstantial basis, they are still inference.

Though the aforementioned sources appear to be confident of China’s vertical proliferation, others hesitate to make such a claim outright. The US government adheres to a more conservative approach. The 2017 Annual Report to Congress pertaining to Chinese security developments discusses China’s shifting nuclear policy, the expansion of such weapons’ delivery systems, and their desire to bolster a nuclear triad to ensure a successful land, air and sea-based nuclear strategy. There is no mention of nuclear warhead expansion, only reference to what equates to nuclear modernisation. Similar assessments conducted by third party experts come to the same conclusion. However, this cautious approach could have more to do with avoiding diplomatic confrontation than with a realistic assessment of nuclear proliferation. The US has a history of underplaying such issues. Throughout the late 1970s, the US willingly turned a blind eye to Pakistan’s development of nuclear weapons in order to focus its attention on Afghanistan, and, therefore, global non-proliferation concerns took a backseat to US Cold War imperatives. Similarly, in the case of present-day China, UN reports accusing the state of facilitating nuclear collaboration between North Korea, Pakistan and Iran have not generated any follow-up. China’s “grandfathering” of nuclear plants in Pakistan, too, has gone uncontested. This denial of the likely increase in Chinese nuclear warheads may be another instance of politics trumping non-proliferation.

Though the conversation is certainly nuanced, there is general agreement surrounding China’s shifting nuclear posture, which focuses aggressively on bolstering its triad capabilities. With its ever-increasing naval presence, China has made it no secret that it plans to alter and strengthen its nuclear doctrine through significant investment in its naval nuclear strike capabilities. China has also dedicated vast resources to the deployment of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) in response to advances in US and Indian missile defences. China’s increased naval focus reportedly faces continued setbacks concerning the reliability of its Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM). Despite these technical difficulties, there is little doubt surrounding China’s end goal of reinforcing all facets of its nuclear capability.

In its 2017 White Paper, China reaffirmed its commitment to non-proliferation, conflict de-escalation, and also stressed the importance of Beijing’s continuing role in regional and global efforts towards peace. The state professes, “China…takes an active part in international arms control…non-proliferation efforts, and stands for the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons.” Considering this statement and the inferential nature of the data surrounding Chinese nuclear expansion, concern over such claims may seem hyperbolic. However, if assertions regarding increased Chinese nuclear warheads are correct, any sense of hyperbole quickly shifts to hypocrisy. Regardless of disagreement regarding vertical proliferation, China is undoubtedly modernising its nuclear arsenal.

*Allyson Rimmer
Research Intern, NSP, IPCS

Texas Guard Mobilizes Ahead Of Hurricane Harvey’s Landfall

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At the request of Gov. Greg Abbott through the Texas Division of Emergency Management, about 700 members of the Texas Army National Guard and Air National Guard and the Texas State Guard with the Texas Military Department have been activated and are pre-positioning throughout the state ahead of Hurricane Harvey and its anticipated landfall later this week.

Additional personnel remain on standby to respond to impacted areas as needed, officials said.

UH-60 Black Hawk and UH-72 Lakota air crews remain in position and on standby in Austin and San Antonio to assist with emergency search and rescue, swift-water rescues and emergency evacuations, officials said. In addition, multiple Texas Army National Guard ground transportation teams have been activated to support local and state agencies with any request for swift-water rescues, high-water ground transportation and personnel evacuation needs.

Guard members also are pre-positioned in Victoria and College Station, with other locations expected as the storm track becomes clearer, officials said. Members of the Texas State Guard are mobilized to provide local shelter operations and Electronic Tracking Network assistance in the affected counties.

“This is what we train for,” said Army Brig. Gen. Patrick M. Hamilton, commander of the Domestic Operations Task Force. “And we’re proud to stand beside our civilian partners, first responders and volunteers to serve the citizens of Texas.”

The Texas Military Department will continue to work with the Texas Division of Emergency Management to project additional personnel and equipment requirements as needed based on the impact of Hurricane Harvey and the needs of the state, officials said.

Hurricane Harvey is the first hurricane to make a direct landfall on the Texas coast since 2008.

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