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Balkan States ‘Embracing Authoritarian Leadership’: Report

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By Maja Zivanovic and Gordana Andric

A new report from the British House of Lords highlights concerns that countries in the Western Balkans are turning to authoritarian leaderships and nationalistic politics.

The British House of Lords warns in a new report published on Wednesday that Western Balkan countries are increasingly turning towards authoritarianism, and that stability in the region is being undermined by outside countries like Russia.

The report highlights “serious concern that gains made towards good governance and the rule of law are in danger of being lost as countries in the region turn to authoritarian leadership, nationalistic politics and state capture”.

“This is being exacerbated by an apparent reticence on the part of the international community to challenge these tendencies, as well as endemic organised crime and corruption in the region. Stability in the region has also been undermined by the influence of third countries,” it adds.

The report, entitled ‘The UK and the Future of the Western Balkans’, says that although Balkan countries’ journey towards EU membership may be important, genuine progress to combat corruption, embed the rule of law, ensure freedom of expression and achieve other reforms must be made too.

“Outside the EU but remaining a champion for accession, the UK should be a critical friend of countries in the region. The [British] government should speak out when countries in the region fall short of the values and standards required and use its influence to ensure shortcomings are recognised,” it says.

The report is being published ahead of the upcoming 2018 Western Balkans Summit, which Britain will host in July.

“And in the run-up to that summit, we will enhance our security co-operation with our Western Balkans partners, including on serious and organised crime, anti-corruption and cyber security,” British Prime Minister Theresa May said last March.

The chairman of the House of Lords’ International Committee, Lord Howell of Guildford, told BIRN that the Western Balkan states will be of continuing importance to Britain even after it leaves the EU.

“The fact that we will not be part of the EU, we believe, doesn’t conflict with the interest and the commitment Britain has to the region,” Lord Howell said.

Asked whether Britain will align its policy on the Balkans with the EU after it leaves, International Committee member Lord Hannay of Chiswick told BIRN that it would be unwise to have a completely different policy.

“It wouldn’t be in the benefit for the countries of the Western Balkans either. We have to find the way from outside of the EU to continue to work with the EU countries,” Lord Hannay said.

The report highlighted some concerns that EU has chosen “stability over democratic values” in the Balkans.

“Stability is something that is achieved but it is inadequate as it is not companied by the rule of law,” Lord Hannay said.

The report expresses concern that Russia is trying to act as a “spoiler” in the region, intent on “disrupting any closer integration with the West”.

It also notes increased Chinese investments in the region, as well as growing interest from other countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

It urges the British government to use July’s Western Balkans Summit to set out in detail the contribution that Britain is prepared to make, in partnership with the EU, to support stability, democracy, the rule of law and prosperity in the region.

“This initiative, coming at an important stage of the Brexit negotiations, would demonstrate that the government is indeed not leaving Europe when it leaves the EU,” it adds.


Tax Cut Doomsayers Need A History (And Economics) Lesson – OpEd

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The recent federal tax cut is creating a lot of fear and angst that a quick historical survey would go far to allay.

Consider, for example, this recent opinion piece by two officials of the Council of Nonprofits, “Nonprofits Must Move Swiftly to Fight for Sound Public Policies.”

Characterizing the tax bill as unleashing a “destructive tsunami,” they go on to predict: “as governments at all levels are forced to cut spending, more work will fall on nonprofits to help people hurt by the spending reductions. Expect nonprofits to have to seek more money from foundations to cover those costs—think of it as a new tax on philanthropy to subsidize decisions of politicians.”

Swamped by the legend that World War II ended the Great Depression are the facts that the U.S. domestic economy remained mired in depression until 1946—after the war had ended. The single measure by which many conclude that the Depression ended with the war is unemployment—which not surprisingly declined from a high of 9-15% in 1940, to 1.2% in 1944, when 16 million Americans were “employed” by the military. Those left at home continued to suffer low standards of living including rationing of almost everything, the pain of which was likely eased by the “spirit” of shared privation for the war effort.

It was only at the end of the war that the Depression truly ended, when following the death of FDR Truman abandoned New Deal economic policies and slashed federal spending by 40%. Despite warnings from his economic advisors that this would plunge the economy “back” into Depression, the U.S. economy instead boomed, easily absorbing the 10 million newly “unemployed” released from the military.

Those returning G.I.s were also able to become homeowners, thanks to the efforts of my father Willard Garvey (himself newly returned from war) and others like him who built millions of cheap starter homes for the Baby Boomers’ parents.

If the lesson of the 1950s is any guide, “governments at all levels … forced to cut spending” is thus a recipe for prosperity, not impoverishment.

It’s also unfortunate that non-profit officials should not appreciate the leveraged power of Americans’ being able to keep more of their own money and direct it to competitive, private philanthropic, non-profit, and for-profit benevolent initiatives. Estimates on getting the same the benefit from spending $1 in the private sector range from $1.63 – 1.92 in spending by the government.

They would also hopefully take away some strong impressions from a study of the rich tradition of mutual aid and benevolent societies that provided health care, education, unemployment and life insurance prior to the growth of the welfare state. Government’s crowding out these incredibly effective organizations has also resulted in today’s poor increasingly caught in a vicious cycle of dependency, with inter-generational patterns of poverty unknown previously—contrasted against the role private associations played in helping individuals and families get on their feet from temporary set-backs. This corruption of a well-developed private sector as well as of a culture that resisted dependency resulted in an explosion of the welfare rolls despite a massive decline in the poverty rate over the twentieth century.

If these philanthropic officials truly want to help, they ought also take a look at the pervasive barriers to opportunity as well as the tremendous costs disproportionately placed on the poor by all levels of government. Minimum wage laws have resulted in the elimination of or substitution of technology for entry-level jobs, effectively removing the bottom rung of the economic ladder, while occupational licensing laws protect those who can afford them from competition from the less well-off. In the 1950s, one out of 20 U.S. workers were required to obtain a government license. Today that number is nearly one out of every three workers, disproportionately excluding the poor from jobs.

At the same time, government’s involvement in the economy has dramatically increased the cost of necessities such as housing and energy. Government restrictions and fees on building have resulted in a dearth of housing, ironically driving out all but the very rich from the most “progressive” cities—with building policies that match—such as San Francisco and Seattle. Millennial-led movements such as YIMBY (Yes In My Backyard) are calling for an end to all such restrictions and a return to homebuilding heydays such as my dad’s postwar operations.

The costs of the climate change war against cheap fuel also disproportionately falls on the poor. Tax-paid subsidies for installing solar panels go to the rich, while rising costs of home energy hit those already struggling:

Economists consider households energy poor if they spend 10% of their income to cover energy costs. A recent report from the International Energy Agency shows that more than 30 million Americans live in households that are energy poor—a number that is significantly increased by climate policies that require Americans to consume expensive green energy from subsidized solar panels and wind turbines.

The “sound public policies” these nonprofit officials ought actually be calling for are thus a Government Cut at least commensurate with the Tax Cut. Phasing out perverse government entitlement programs, eliminating barriers to economic opportunity, and freeing markets for the provision of life’s necessities could usher in a new era of opportunity and prosperity—and one that would especially benefit the poor.

This article was published at The Beacon.

Public Wage Bills In Middle East And Central Asia – Speech

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Introductory Remarks for “Reimagining the Public Sector in the Middle East and Central Asia”

Good morning. I am pleased to welcome you to today’s event. I would like to express my appreciation to Carnegie for hosting the event and to Michele Dunne for assembling such an impressive panel and for moderating today’s discussion.

Today we are launching a paper examining the management of public sector wage bills in the Middle East and Central Asia. It was prepared by a team of my IMF colleagues, led by Natalia Tamirisa and Christoph Duenwald.

Globally, spending on public wages absorbs around one-fifth of total government spending on average. This has important fiscal and macroeconomic consequences. Moreover, the efficiency of public wage spending—as well as other public services—is crucial for the economy of any country, advanced, emerging market, or low-income. Such policies are essential if countries are to achieve strong, sustainable, and inclusive growth.

Our previous work has shown that the process of reforming public wage bills can be complicated and time consuming. It requires robust institutions and considerable political will.

Moreover, reforms have a better chance of achieving sustained success when they are part of longer-term structural reforms to the economy. This will be more effective than short-term measures such as freezes on wages or hiring.

The paper we are launching today looks at this topic through the lens of the Middle East and Central Asia. This is a region where policy makers are grappling with challenges related to public sector employment and wages. Addressing them will have important implications for economic welfare more broadly.

First, some countries are experiencing weak growth and high unemployment, with large numbers of young people entering the job market each year. This has put pressure on governments to find ways to generate jobs.

Second, many countries are facing a difficult budget environment, partly due to lower oil prices and falling foreign-exchange remittances. This requires fiscal adjustment.

Third, demands to improve the delivery of public services are increasing. But these services have fallen short of public expectations.

Finally, internal and regional conflicts have presented the challenge of managing unprecedented flows of refugees, migrants, and internally displaced people. This has placed immense burdens on government services across the region, further straining budget resources.

What does our paper find? One key finding is that wage bills in the Middle East and Central Asia are high compared to other regions. Average wage bills amount to 10 percent of GDP, compared to 6 percent in similar countries outside the region. If anything, this highlights the macroeconomic significance of the issue at hand.

This is partly a legacy of the past, reflecting the prevalence of state-driven economic models in many countries. Government too often acts as an “employer of first resort,” and public sector jobs serve as social support. This strains resources that could be put to more effective use elsewhere.

In oil-exporting countries, we also see governments attempting to maintain social cohesion by offering high levels of compensation compared to the private sector. Needless to say, this has distorted labor markets and competitiveness.

In addition, the political instability and conflict across the region means that security-related employment is on the rise. This can have implications for public wage bills.

While the challenges of managing public-wage bills are perhaps most acute in the Middle East, there are also difficulties in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Public employment remains high in these countries despite slower government hiring during the transition to market-based economies over the past 25 years.

So what are the policy solutions? I will leave it to the other speakers this morning to detail our recommendations on this issue. But allow me to offer the big picture: governments need to pursue wage bill policies that are fiscally sustainable and focused on providing effective and equitable public services. Reforming public wage bills can make room for spending that enhances inclusive growth—including social protection—and promote higher and fairer growth in the Middle East and Central Asia. This requires reforms that are sequenced and designed to work in synergy with other policies.

I hope that our paper, and today’s discussion, will stimulate the debate around this important topic. Indeed, we have already benefitted significantly from our dialog with civil society organizations and labor unions. Our aim is to motivate better public service delivery. This, in turn, can support the broader reforms needed to increase private sector employment across the region—and boost sustainable and inclusive growth.

I look forward to our discussion today, and hope it will deepen our understanding of these issues. I will now hand the floor to Jihad.

Thank you.

Ralph Nader: An Open Letter To President Trump

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Dear President Trump,

Let us all wish and work for a peaceful and just New Year.

The American people are spending a significant amount of time observing and thinking about your presidency and its robust tweeting operation as President. Three areas of interest and concern comprise this letter’s purpose:

1. With news of the forthcoming medical examination by your physicians there will be renewed interest in your medical records and medical condition. This is true of all Presidents, but more so with you, because you have not been as forthcoming or anywhere near as complete in your disclosures about the state of your health during the campaign and since you became President last January.

The other concern relates to your diets and habits. You have what some nutritionists colloquially call a “cardiac diet” – full of foods containing fat, salt and sugar. A recent report said you drink about 12 cans of artificially sweetened diet coke a day! With artificial sweeteners. You have said you sleep less than normal people. You are overweight. Not a good combination, say physicians and health scientists, that is conductive to good health. And then there is the added stress of just being President and constantly being viscerally angry at critics here and abroad. People just doing things with their constitutional freedom, to which you strenuously object, seems to aggravate you.

Please release your full medical records with the necessary technical details and explanations to give the public confidence in your health.

2. There is much writing and litigation about how you are enriching yourself from many private and public sources. The emoluments clause of the Constitution is much in the news as recurrent reports bring to public attention all the spenders going to your properties and those of your family hoping to ingratiate themselves with your favors, including diplomatic officials of foreign countries in Washington, DC and New York City, and other public officials patronizing your properties abroad.

Since you have not fully divested from your properties, there is all the more reason for you to release several years of your tax returns, including the most recent return. Even your supporters have wondered, “Why not, what has he got to hide?” Or more benignly, “Why not, he’s got nothing to hide, everyone knows he is rich and has done lots of deals with lots of businesses and partnerships.”

Will you recognize that you are a public official and owe the people the full tax information, most importantly, your assets, debts and other business dealings and partnerships?

3. There has been a vast conflict between your public statements assuring the people that “we want to protect our workers, their safety our health and we want to protect our air and our country’s natural beauty.” Moreover, last year you asserted that no one would go without healthcare.

By contrast, you have selected men and women to run your health and safety regulatory agencies and departments who were and are openly hostile to these agencies’ official statutory missions. Like you, those you have appointed are boastful about their intention to dismantle limits on lethal or injurious impacts and actions that have been saving the lives, health and safety of the American people and protecting consumer dollars. You are aware of their sworn oath of office to uphold the laws under their jurisdiction – an oath preceded by similar assurances in their sworn congressional testimony at their Senate confirmation hearings.

The destruction of these federal agencies’ missions, the degrading and marginalizing of their scientists, engineers, ecologists, economists and other professional public servants are without precedent. What is also unique is that your heads of EPA, the Departments of Interior, Agriculture, Education, Labor and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau are contemptuous of the missions of their agencies. The neglect, reversals or replacements are letting more Americans, including children, die, get sick or be injured – on your Presidential watch! And the enablers of unprosecuted corporate crime and wrongdoing that are just getting underway –revoking or suspending rules and even brazenly pulling back on enforcement actions which are nearing settlements, sanctions or prohibitions. This abdication also creates a climate than can increase corporate abuses of workers and consumers.

Of course, there is prosecutorial or enforcement discretion, with priorities for action. That is not the situation here. This is a wholesale wrecking crew of non-enforcement of laws, taking the federal cops off the corporate crime, fraud and abuse beat. This is a demolition death dance cutting enforcement budgets, pushing conscientious enforcement officials out the door or leaving them with nothing to do, thereby wasting taxpayer money. Such zealotry keeps pushing the envelope until preventable disasters occur or serious scandals emerge. That’s when it reaches your desk.

Pay attention to what those you have appointed are undoing, if only because they will be doing in your congressional supporters in November. You should start with the Rogue’s gallery of Mick Mulvaney, grinding down the CFPB, Alex Acosta, the Secretary Against Labor, Scott Pruitt, Chief Toxifier at the EPA, Ryan Zinke, Oil-Driller-in-Chief on the federal lands and offshore, Sonny Perdue, the anti-nutritionist at USDA, Scott Gottlieb, the drug industry’s man at the FDA, and Betsy DeVos, the corporatist, jeopardizing students at the Department of Education.

It would help if you are seen working on your empathy for the tens of millions of deprived and innocent people, including children, exposed to various forms of risk and exploitation in their daily lives here and abroad whom you are adversely affecting.

Sincerely yours,

Ralph Nader

Dennis Kucinich To Announce Ohio Governor Run – OpEd

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Former Democratic US House of Representatives member from Ohio and two-time presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich is reported to be planning to announce next week his campaign for Ohio governor following his submitting paperwork with the state government on Monday to establish a campaign committee.

Since Kucinich left the US House in January of 2013, there has been speculation that Kucinich may run for the Ohio governorship. In addition to serving eight terms in the US House from Ohio, Kucinich has held office in the state as a Cleveland City Council member, Cleveland mayor, and Ohio state senator.

Kucinich suggested in a 2015 interview that he would likely again run for office, commenting that he “will probably be back in elected office” in the future.

The governor election to succeed term-limited Republican incumbent John Kasich will be held in November. Primary elections are scheduled for May.

Kucinich is an advisory board member for the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

Rohingya Leaders Call On US To Ensure Refugees Not Forced Back To Myanmar

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Rohingya leaders have called on the U.S. government to ensure that refugees from the Muslim minority who fled to southeastern Bangladesh from a military offensive in Myanmar’s Rakhine state not be forced to return there unless officials could guarantee their security and restore their citizenship.

The Myanmar military launched a brutal crackdown targeting the Rohingya in response to deadly attacks by a Muslim insurgent group in August 2017. During the campaign the Rohingya allegedly endured killings, arson, rape, and torture, which forced at least 655,000 of them to flee to safety in Bangladesh.

“Rohingyas must not be sent back to the genocide zones of Burma without security and citizenship,” said Abdul Malik Mujahid, chairman of Burma Task Force USA, a coalition of 19 U.S. and Canadian Muslim organizations dedicated to advocating for the Rohingya and ending genocide in Myanmar.

He was one of several Rohingya leaders from across the U.S. who participated in a panel discussion in Washington D.C. on the situation in northern Rakhine state and were part of a delegation that met on Capitol Hill.

The government of Myanmar’s de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, could not resolve the problems in ethnically and religiously divided Rakhine without the collaboration of military leaders and the nation’s former leaders, Saw Hlaing, executive member of the California-based Burmese American Muslims Association, told the Myanmar Service of Radio Free Asia (RFA), a sister entity of BenarNews.

He said a relative told him how Myanmar army soldiers and ethnic Rakhine mobs had attacked Rohingya villages during the crackdown.

“My sister saw with her own eyes in her village that the Myanmar army and [ethnic] Rakhine extremists set fires and killed people,” Saw Hlaing said. “The village’s name is Vasala in the Rohingya language.”

The Myanmar government and army have denied allegations of atrocities committed by soldiers against the Rohingya, although both the United Nations and United States said that the crackdown amounted to ethnic cleansing.

Citizenship Law ‘unfair’

In November, Bangladesh and Myanmar signed an agreement to repatriate Rohingya refugees who wished to return voluntarily to Myanmar and could prove prior residency there.

Myanmar is in the process of issuing the Rohingya national verification cards as part of a citizenship eligibility process for undocumented people in Rakhine.

But the Rohingya community rejects the cards because all Rohingya who live in Myanmar have other forms of identification and official lists documenting all family members, said Kyaw Soe Aung, executive director of the Rohingya American Society.

“We would like to ask the Myanmar government to determine citizenship according to these documents,” he said.

Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law denies the Rohingya citizenship because they are not among the country’s 135 official ethnic groups.

Kyaw Soe Aung told RFA that the Citizenship Law was unfair.

“That law was issued without people’s consent,” he said. “We want to ask whether this law was issued just for Muslims or all people in Myanmar. If it is only for Muslims, then it is discrimination.”

He suggested that the government accept the Rohingya refugees back, help them resettle because most of their villages and homes were burned during the crackdown, and give them back their rights.

“If this is done, the problems in Rakhine state will disappear,” he said.

Data verification

Myanmar plans to begin repatriating about 100,000 Rohingya refugees on Jan. 22, though rights groups, the U.N., and Rohingya leaders themselves have warned against a hasty return. They said that the Rohingya may not be able to produce documents proving prior residency, since many had fled in haste to escape violence by security forces.

They also have cautioned that Rohingya who return will continue to face repression and discrimination in Buddhist-majority Myanmar, where they are considered illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and are denied access to basic services.

The plan that Myanmar and Bangladesh have come up with does not take into account the rights of the returning Rohingya, Kyaw Soe Aung said.

“The agreement said Myanmar will accept those who have documents or evidence that shows that they previously lived in Rakhine state before,” he said. “Most of them don’t have any documents or evidence because the Myanmar army and security guards burned their houses, and they had to flee to Bangladesh.”

Myanmar officials, however, say they have documents to verify the residency of Rohingya who want to return but no longer possess official papers.

“The Myanmar government has to receive the Rohingya back by checking its immigration data and giving them their full rights,” Kyaw Soe Aung said.

Kyaw Soe Aung added that the Myanmar government must also implement the recommendations of the Advisory Commission on Rakhine State, a body led by former U.N. head Kofi Annan that called for reviews of the country’s Citizenship Law and for an end to restrictions on the Rohingya to prevent further violence in the region.

“I completely accept the suggestions in his report,” he said. “If Daw [honorific] Aung San Suu Kyi’s government and military can implement the Annan commission’s suggestions, the problems in Rakhine State will be resolved, I believe.”

Mass Extinctions Remove Species But Not Ecological Variety

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Sixty-five million years ago, clouds of ash choked the skies over Earth. Dinosaurs, along with about half of all the species on Earth, staggered and died.

But in the seas, a colorful population of marine bivalves–the group including oysters, clams and scallops–soldiered on, tucked into the crevices of ocean floors and shorelines. Though they also lost half their species, curiously, at least one species in each ecological niche survived.

University of Chicago scientists documented this surprising trend in a study on extinctions published Jan. 5 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Though the mass extinction wiped out staggeringly high numbers of species, they barely touched the overall “functional” diversity–how each species makes a living, be it filtering phytoplankton or eating small crustaceans, burrowing or clamping onto rocks. The same held true for the biggest mass extinction of all, 250 million years ago: more than 90 percent of all species on Earth died out, but no modes of life disappeared.

Strangely, the scientists said, nothing of the kind is seen in a different kind of biodiversity loss: the loss of species today as you move from the warm tropics to the chillier poles. The number of species drops 80 percent to 95 percent from the tropics to the cold, snowy north and south, and functional variety also declines by 50 percent to 60 percent. Thus losing diversity due to changed environment is entirely possible–all the more reason why it’s strange to see such a pattern of survival in mass extinctions.

“Multicellular life almost didn’t make it out of the Paleozoic era, but every functional group did. Then we see that functional diversity drops way down from tropics to poles; it parallels species loss in a way that’s totally different from the big extinctions. That’s wild–really fascinating and unexpected and strange,” said co-author David Jablonski, the William R. Kenan Jr. Distinguished Service Professor of Geophysical Sciences.

This could have implications for how the mass extinction currently gathering steam could unfold and how badly it will affect Earth ecosystems, the authors said.

Jablonski and graduate student Stewart Edie, who is the first author on the paper, ran the numbers for two major mass extinctions in history: the relatively gradual end-Paleozoic extinction, perhaps driven by changing climates and ocean composition, and later, the sharper end-Cretaceous extinction, thought to be caused by a meteor impact and/or volcanic eruptions. Though they are very different stresses, the same pattern emerged.

“The rug gets pulled out from underneath all the species,” said Edie. “The landscape of the world completely and suddenly changed, making it all the more surprising that all functional types survived. Even the functional groups with only one or two species somehow make it through.”

The question is pressing because functional diversity is what makes ecosystems tick. Ecosystems are delicately balanced, and losing ecological roles throws a system out of whack: Think of a forest damaged when the deer population explodes because the wolves that prey on them are removed. That balance keeps soil fertile, oceans full of fish and grass growing for livestock.

“The big question is: Given that we’re working on a mass extinction right now, which flavor will it be?” Jablonski said. “Will we have a tropic-to-poles type, where we lose half our functional groups and so ecosystems are massively altered? Or will it be a mass extinction where you can lose all these species, but the functional groups still somehow manage to limp on? We need to understand this.”

Jeans Made With Child Labor? People Choose Willful Ignorance

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Many consumers have found a way to cope with the knowledge that products they like have been made unethically: They simply forget they ever knew it.

In a series of studies, researchers found that consumers conveniently “forgot” that brands of desks were made with wood from rainforests or that jeans may have been made with child labor.

In fact, consumers not only forget the uncomfortable truth, but sometimes misremember the facts and believe that the offending product was made ethically.

“It’s not necessarily a conscious decision by consumers to forget what they don’t want to know,” said Rebecca Reczek, co-author of the study and associate professor of marketing at The Ohio State University’s Fisher College of Business.

“It is a learned coping mechanism to tune out uncomfortable information because it makes their lives easier.”

The study appears online in the Journal of Consumer Research and will be published in a future print edition.

In one study, 236 college students were asked to read and memorize descriptions of six made-up brands of desks. The descriptions discussed quality, price and an ethical dimension – the source of the wood. Participants read that the wood either came from sustainable tree farms or endangered rainforests.

When asked immediately after memorization, participants accurately recalled whether the wood came from rainforests or tree farms in 94 percent of the cases.

But those memories faded quickly. After the participants completed 15 to 20 minutes of tasks meant to distract them, they were then given a sheet of paper with all six desk brand names and were asked to write down as much as they could remember about each desk.

Participants were right 60 percent of the time about desks made from tree farms, but right only 45 percent of the time about desks made of rainforest wood.

“It is not that the participants didn’t pay attention to where the wood came from. We know that they successfully memorized that information,” said study co-author Daniel Zane, a doctoral student in marketing at Ohio State.

“But they forget it in this systematic pattern. They remembered the quality and price attributes of the desks. It is only the ethical attributes that cause people to be willfully ignorant.”

A second study involved a national sample of 402 people who participated online. Here, participants were asked to put together an outfit that included a pair of jeans. About half of the participants saw a brand of jeans that was described as being made with child labor while the other half saw a brand of jeans made ethically, with no child labor.

Results were similar to the first study: People who saw the jeans made with child labor were much less likely to remember this information than people who saw a brand of jeans made with adult labor.

Why is forgetting ethical information so popular with consumers? Well, another study suggested that it makes people feel a little better about themselves.

In this study, the researchers had participants consider a hypothetical person named Chris who bought a pair of jeans made with child labor. In some cases, participants were told Chris had earlier learned that the jeans were made with child labor, but forgot when making the purchase. In other cases, participants were told Chris remembered the information, but ignored it when buying the jeans.

“What we found is that people judged the person who forgot the ethical information as more moral than the person who ignored the information,” Reczek said.

“So, for most people, forgetting is seen as the more acceptable coping strategy.”

If you really want to be an ethical consumer, there are steps you can take, Zane said.

“You need to realize that this memory bias exists and eliminate memory from your buying process,” he said.

“Don’t put something in your online shopping cart that you know was made unethically and say you’ll think about it. By the time you come back, there is a good chance you will have forgotten what troubled you in the first place.”

There’s a lesson for ethical companies too, Reczek said.

“Don’t make your customers rely on memory. Make sure you have reminders at the point of purchase that you’re an ethical brand,” she said.


Heart Health At Risk For Latinas Over Worries About Deportation

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A recent study conducted by researchers at UC San Francisco and UC Berkeley’s Center for Environmental Research and Children’s Health (CERCH) found that worry about deportations was associated with multiple cardiovascular health risk factors in Latinas from California’s Salinas Valley, an area with a large immigrant community. The study was published in the journal, Annals of Behavioral Medicine, on January 9.

The current study is the first data-driven research into the connection between deportation fears and measured cardiovascular risk factors. While past descriptive studies have documented the impact of fear of deportation on the mental health of immigrants, their families, and their communities, none have examined how this fear gets “under the skin” to affect physical health.

Researchers gathered data between 2012 and 2014 from 545 women enrolled in the internationally recognized Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas (CHAMACOS) cohort, the longest-running study based in a U.S. farmworker community. They asked mothers in the cohort about how much worry deportation caused them and monitored vital signs and other health information. Using these data, the UCSF and CERCH team created statistical models to look at the relationship between deportation worry and health outcomes such as blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference, which have previously been linked to other structural and societal stressors like discrimination.

Almost half of the women expressed a lot of worry about deportation. Overall, those who were more concerned had significantly greater waist circumferences and odds of obesity as well as higher body mass indexes, all risk factors for cardiovascular disease and stroke. The researchers also found that greater worry about deportation was linked to higher systolic blood pressure (the pressure in blood vessels when a heart beats) and pulse pressure, an important indicator of heart health.

The findings held even when controlling for measures of socio-economic status, age, time spent in the United States and nativity. The researchers also explored how depression may affect worry about deportation and cardiovascular risk factors, since the disorder might drive them both.

“These results are not surprising, given what we know about the effects of other societal stressors on physical wellbeing, including cardiovascular risk factors,” said Jacqueline Torres, first author of the study and assistant professor at UCSF. “They are nevertheless heartbreaking, because they suggest that individuals who are targeted by immigration enforcement practices – and live in fear of the effects on their family and community members – might bear a dual burden related to the adverse consequences of this immense stress on their physical health.”

Dramatic increases in deportations over the last two decades, along with local police forces working more closely with federal immigration authorities, have fostered an environment of fear across many U.S. immigrant communities. According to a national survey fielded last year, almost half of Latinos living in the United States worry about deportation, either for themselves or someone close to them. The consequences of this fear and stress can extend beyond day-to-day life and impact overall health and wellbeing.

The broader literature on the health impacts of psychosocial stress points to several ways that deportation fears may affect heart health. Persistent worry may chronically activate a person’s stress response system or increase sensitivity to other factors, such as food insecurity, that increase stress. This fear could even affect sleep quality and duration, and chronic stress has been linked to inflammation, with can affect cardiovascular health.

Though no one study is sufficient to draw causal conclusions about the effects of fear of deportation on clinical risk factors, this study suggests there may be potential long-term health consequences of immigration policies on adult women.

These data were collected during the Obama administration, when deportations reached previous peak levels. Recent reports suggest that deportation rates are rising further under the Trump presidency. The researchers began this study because of concerns about the impacts of deportation on the community. Members of the CERCH team have been working with the same group of women for decades – some as early as 1999 – and heard firsthand about the impacts of these immigration enforcement activities on the lives of these women.

“Given the current immigration policies, I am especially concerned about the adverse effects of deportation fear on the mental and physical health of the children in these families, many of whom are United States citizens,” said study co-author Brenda Eskenazi, director of CERCH, principal investigator of CHAMACOS, and professor at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health.

“These farmworker families are critical to the success of the agricultural economy in California and deserve our support,” adds Torres.

Dual Migration Created Genetic ‘Melting Pot’ Of First Scandinavians

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New genomic data suggest that the first human settlers on the Scandinavian peninsula followed two distinct migration routes. The study published January 9 in the open access journal PLOS Biology led by researchers from Uppsala University with an international team of collaborators, also indicates that the resulting mixed population genetically adapted to the extreme environmental conditions.

There is consistent evidence of a human presence in the Scandinavian peninsula from around 11,700 years ago, and similarities between stone tool artefacts found in Scandinavia and those seen in both Western Europe and Eastern Europe suggest that several groups may have migrated into the area when the ice retreated. The migration routes and genetic makeup of the first Scandinavians have, however, previously been elusive.

By sequencing the genomes of 7 hunter-gatherers excavated across Scandinavia and dated to be 9,500-6,000 years old, the researchers found that migrations into the Scandinavian peninsula most likely followed two routes; one from central Europe and one from the Northeast along the Norwegian Atlantic Coast.

The two groups met and mixed in Scandinavia, creating a genetically diverse population with many genetic variants that have not been passed down to modern-day Europeans.

The research team also investigated whether the individuals showed signs of adaptation to the cold and low daylight conditions found in high-latitude environments. They discovered that several genetic variants in the hunter-gatherers were linked to a gene associated with physical performance, which they hypothesise could be part of the physiological adaptation to cold. The hunter-gatherers also had a high frequency of genetic variants linked to reduced skin pigmentation — a known adaptation to environments with low UV radiation, such as those at high latitude.

“We used cutting-edge genomic approaches to investigate hypotheses about the early colonization of northern Europe after the ice-sheet of the last glaciation retracted. It is really great to see how evidence from different disciplines can be combined to understand these complex past demographic processes,” said population geneticist Torsten Günther, one of the lead authors.

He added: “Our findings are important for human genetics, archaeology and anthropology, and it will be interesting to see what similar approaches can tell us about the post glacial population dynamics in other parts of Europe and the rest of the world.”

Iran: 3,700 Arrested Nationwide During Protests

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About 3,700 people were arrested nationwide during the recent anti-government protests in Iran, a member of the country’s parliament said.

Mahmoud Sadeghi, a Tehran MP, announced the official count on Tuesday after the state-run ICANA news agency reported that 1,000 people had been arrested during the week of demonstrations that began in December.

“Due to the fact that several security organizations had made the arrests, it will take some time to give an accurate count,” Sadeghi said.

Protests over food prices and other economic problems began Dec. 28 in Iran’s second-largest city of Mashhad, where the provincial government of the northern region of the city said 85 percent of detainees there were released after signing a pledge not to re-offend.

The violence that broke out at several protests killed 22 people after unrest spilled into more than 80 cities across Iran.

Iranian officials accused the country’s “enemies” of instigating and orchestrating the protests — the country’s first large-scale demonstrations since the 2009 election. Tens of thousands took part in subsequent pro-government rallies to support the establishment leadership.

Iranian Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed outside influence for the protests.

“This is due to our people’s continued support. The solid people’s stand will again tell the U.S., U.K. and those who live in London that you failed this time and will fail again.” Human rights activists are now concerned about protesters dying in prison.

“I spoke to a prisoner in Evin prison and I was told that three detainees had lost their lives,” Nasrin Sotoudeh, a human rights lawyer, told The Guardian. “When authorities resort to mass arrests, they cannot claim to protect their rights. It is not possible in such a situation for the judicial process to take its due course.”

Original article

New Discovery Could Improve Brain-Like Memory And Computing

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From various magnetic tapes, floppy disks and computer hard disk drives, magnetic materials have been storing our electronic information along with our valuable knowledge and memories for well over half of a century.

In more recent years, the new types phenomena known as magnetoresistance, which is the tendency of a material to change its electrical resistance when an externally-applied magnetic field or its own magnetization is changed, has found its success in hard disk drive read heads, magnetic field sensors and the rising star in the memory technologies, the magnetoresistive random access memory.

A new discovery, led by researchers at the University of Minnesota, demonstrates the existence of a new kind of magnetoresistance involving topological insulators that could result in improvements in future computing and computer storage. The details of their research are published in the most recent issue of the scientific journal Nature Communications.

“Our discovery is one missing piece of the puzzle to improve the future of low-power computing and memory for the semiconductor industry, including brain-like computing and chips for robots and 3D magnetic memory,” said University of Minnesota Robert F. Hartmann Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering Jian-Ping Wang, director of the Center for Spintronic Materials, Interfaces, and Novel Structures (C-SPIN) based at the University of Minnesota and co-author of the study.

Emerging technology using topological insulators

While magnetic recording still dominates data storage applications, the magnetoresistive random access memory is gradually finding its place in the field of computing memory. From the outside, they are unlike the hard disk drives which have mechanically spinning disks and swinging heads–they are more like any other type of memory. They are chips (solid state) which you’d find being soldered on circuit boards in a computer or mobile device.

Recently, a group of materials called topological insulators has been found to further improve the writing energy efficiency of magnetoresistive random access memory cells in electronics. However, the new device geometry demands a new magnetoresistance phenomenon to accomplish the read function of the memory cell in 3D system and network.

Following the recent discovery of the unidirectional spin Hall magnetoresistance in a conventional metal bilayer material systems, researchers at the University of Minnesota collaborated with colleagues at Pennsylvania State University and demonstrated for the first time the existence of such magnetoresistance in the topological insulator-ferromagnet bilayers.

The study confirms the existence of such unidirectional magnetoresistance and reveals that the adoption of topological insulators, compared to heavy metals, doubles the magnetoresistance performance at 150 Kelvin (-123.15 Celsius). From an application perspective, this work provides the missing piece of the puzzle to create a proposed 3D and cross-bar type computing and memory device involving topological insulators by adding the previously missing or very inconvenient read functionality.

China Frees Bishop Shao After Seven Months Being Detained

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Bishop Peter Shao Zhumin has been released by Chinese authorities after being detained for seven months.

The underground bishop from Wenzhou Diocese of Zhejiang province was released Jan. 3 and is expected to return to Wenzhou, one of China’s biggest Christian citiesm soon.

A source who wanted to be unnamed told ucanews.com that after Bishop Shao was taken away in May 2017, officials from Wenzhou City Bureau of Ethnic and Religious Affairs tried to force him to sign an agreement.

The agreement requested the bishop to support the State Administration for Religious Affairs and the self-election and self-ordination of bishops.

After a lot of pressure, Bishop Shao signed the agreement just to prove that he had read it but put a remark that he did not agree with the terms, the source said.

“What the government is doing is like the Cultural Revolution, arresting you and forcing you to sign documents to support the authority,” the source said.

Now the bishop is staying in a Catholic’s home in Xining city of Qinghai province in central China, 2,500 kilometers away from Wenzhou, and will go to Beijing for a hearing check Jan. 22 before going back to Wenzhou.

Bishop Shao has a congenital ear disease. During his detention last September, he attended Beijing Tongren Hospital to have ear surgery.

After surgery, he was bought to Xining for recovery but was still monitored.

Bishop Shao was taken away from his diocese on May 18, 2017. It was the fourth detention after he was confirmed as a bishop.

“However, it was the first time that officials from Wenzhou City Bureau of Ethnic and Religious Affairs were involved to arrest him; while only National Security officials did so in the past,” the source said.

The reason for taking away the bishop is still a mystery but it is believed that a new director of Wenzhou Provincial Administration for Religious Affairs wanted to resolve problems concerning Bishop Shao.

Bishop Shao comes from the underground church of Wenzhou and refused to join the State Administration for Religious Affairs. In September 2016, he was confirmed in his episcopacy by the Vatican following the death of his predecessor, Bishop Vincent Zhu Weifang.

The source also believed that authorities released him as a result of pressure from overseas and prayers and fasting organized by Wenzhou Diocese during Christmas.

“The news about Wenzhou Diocese launching monthly prayers and fasting for the bishop starting from Dec. 18 spread out overseas quickly, causing the authorities to take action,” the source told ucanews.com.

The Vatican issued a statement on June 26, 2017, saying it was saddened with the situation of the disappearance of Bishop Shao. The German government also publicly expressed the hope that the bishop may be released.

Canada’s Financial Dominance In Former English Caribbean Colonies (FECC) – Analysis

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By Tamanisha Jennifer John*

Introduction

Today, Canadian Banks dominate the financial industry of the Former English Caribbean Colonies (FECC), enhancing and often enriching the external interests of capital for their banks in Canada. This is done at the expense of internal solutions to development of these Caribbean states. The story of Canadian corporate ownership of financial institutions in the region is not new. IMF Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) in the 1980s-1990’s solidified the region’s banking sector in the hands of Canadian corporations. Canadian monopolistic ownership of Caribbean finance has a very rich history that speaks to what Canadian banking concentration in the region looks like— not just during centuries of colonial exploitation— but also of neoliberal exploitation in today’s free-market era. The political economy of FECC is one structured by debt being serviced through a narrow Canadian ownership structure that frequently contradicts FECC sovereignty and economic security.

Of the five largest banks in Canada, three of them—Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank), and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC FirstCaribbean)—operate in the FECC as dominant financial institutions acting as subsidiaries (Figure 1)[i]. The subsidiary status of Canadian banks in FECC is of paramount importance because, unlike a foreign branch bank, a subsidiary is not required to give out loans to Caribbean companies. However, what they are allowed to do is raise capital and issue debts and loans to corporations and governments. Canadian banking presence in FECC started due to traditional colonial ties with Britain which facilitated their operation in the region beginning in the late 19th to the early 20th century. This presence was fueled by colonial trade between the Maritime provinces of Canada and the West Indies under British rule in 1882.[ii] Trade and access to commerce with American finance was a motivating factor for Canadian banks’ expansion in the region. RBC and Scotiabank, were the first Canadian banks to commence operating in the FECC. Thus, although expansion of Canadian banks in the region has a long history, there will be a particular focus in the time period when it peaked during the financial crises of the 1980’s— which prompted specific (external) policy recommendations that aided in further concentration of Canadian banks in the region today.

It should be noted that due to the colonial history of Canadian banking in the region, one could make the argument that Canadian banks have always been concentrated in FECC, even before these states became fully independent. After all, by the mid-1970’s “Canadian banks controlled 60-90 per cent of banking in the Commonwealth Caribbean”.[iii] This information is important for understanding the increased prominence of Canadian banks in the region during the 1980’s, because towards the latter half of the 1970’s, Canadian banking influence in the region started to wane as a result of criticism from Caribbean nationals. Questions of how the region could be free from Western domination if their economic potential was dependent upon, and controlled by, foreigners became popular. This connection between Western domination and Canadian banking became apparent because Canadian takeover of financial institutions positively correlated with increasingly limited access to capital by Caribbean nationals and small firms for development usage, as well as increasing foreign control of profitable sectors.[iv]

As a result, during the 1970s “Canadian banks, in Trinidad [and Tobago], were targeted in demonstrations and even fire bombings” in an effort to encourage them to leave the country as well as the region.[v] During this period of regional turmoil, a Canadian External Affairs Official, when asked to address the protests against Canadian financial institutions throughout the region, was quoted as saying “we’re not colonialists by intent, but by circumstances. We’ve taken on a neocolonial aura there [in the Caribbean].”[vi]

Therefore, when I state that Canadian financial institutions were enabled during the 1980’s and 1990’s by IMF SAPs to regain their pre-1970’s colonial status within the region, it should not be taken lightly. The resurgence of these Canadian financial institutions after the implementation of IMF SAPs by FECC states allowed them to become deeply embedded within the financial architecture of FECC. The results of this embeddedness have been the increasing reliance on private sector credit and continued Canadian concentration within the region. It would be difficult to discuss access to private sector credit and the increasing reliance on private sector credit by FECC states separate from the concentration of Canadian financial institutions. This is because the inability of small private firms to gain access to credit or loans is related to whether these Canadian financial institutions see these firms as being worthy, that is, profitable enough to receive credit. And secondly, the benefits Canadian financial institutions seek to gain from providing credit or loans to FECC states themselves is related to their concentration within FECC states. Concentration of Canadian financial institutions and the switch to relying on private sector credit comes out of a colonial and neocolonial history in FECC, which explains the present-day build-up of debt via private creditors and Canadian concentration.

Canada’s Entrance into FECC

In discussing the financial stranglehold of Canadian banks and other foreign financial institutions in his home country of Trinidad during the 1970’s, Afro-Trinidadian historian and journalist C.L.R. James described conditions in Trinidad:

You get off at Piarco [airport] and you take a taxi to the chief town which is Port-of-Spain. You turn up the main street and within 200 yards, you stop. Independence Square. Good! so you pull up the taxi and you say. Well, this is a fine square. You have some magnificent buildings here. Yes. You ask him, what is that building? He says, that is Barclay’s Bank. And what is that building? That is the Canadian Bank of Commerce. And what is that big one next to it? That’s the Royal Bank of Canada. And what is that big one over there? That is Chase Manhattan. And what is that one? That is the Bank of London and Montreal. And that one? That is the Bank of London and Halifax. In other words, Independence Square is surrounded by some of the most magnificent buildings in the territory and all of them are foreign banks. That’s how we live. They rule the place.[vii]

According to Peter Hudson,[viii] James was right. During his description of Trinidad, Hudson pointed out “Canadian banks controlled 60 per cent of Trinidad’s commercial and retail banking. For the rest of the Commonwealth Caribbean [aka FECC], the figure ranged between 60 and 90 per cent.”[ix] This type of concentrated foreign ownership of a sovereign entity’s financial system is unprecedented—especially when one considers that it is a colonial holdover which became codified in the region before, during, and after fights for independence. Although governments within the region— and other smaller indigenous banks— did try to compete with the Canadian banks, they simply could not.

Under colonialism and during the British Empire, Canadian banks provided the financial muscle and “colonial monetary functions that would uphold an [intra] imperial financial and commercial architecture.”[x] What this means is that Canadian financial ownership became so institutionalized within the region because it was beneficial to imperial forms of trade (British → Canada; American → Canada).[xi] This institutionalization was pushed by Canadian bankers, in light of their failed attempts at annexing the British West Indies from the British.[xii] Thus, “substituting political ties for economic tethers” Canadian financial institutions “embarked on a major push in the Anglophone Caribbean through a strategy that combined mergers and acquisitions of existing institutions”[xiii]— as British selling of its colonial territories to Canada never was an option.

To outcompete the British within their own territories, Canadian financial institutions diversified their range of operations—even acting as “government depositories and in some cases floating sovereign debts.” Therefore, these institutions successfully became the preferred institutions of British subjects—including the wealthy Caribbean elites and the peasant African and Indian workers—including the illiterate, who could now open saving accounts with less than a dollar.[xiv] These Canadian banks also opened remittance accounts for Caribbean workers abroad who were working in the coal mines of Canada.[xv] As proof of their institutionalization in FECC, even over the Crown, Hudson writes that “the most telling sign of the Royal Bank’s strength in the Caribbean comes not from the counting of branch banks, the increase in deposits, or the aggregate figures of loans but through popular culture. Every year, the Royal Bank Magazine, [wrote] a calypso for carnival whose subject was the [Canadian] Bank.”[xvi]

In this context, the switch to independence (and pre-expansionary Wall Street), resulted in continued Canadian ownership. Hudson writes that “in the absence of a developed American banking presence, [Canadians] lent [their] financial machinery to American corporations facilitating U.S. trade and commercial operations in the Caribbean and, occasionally, providing the financial machinery for U.S. colonial governance.”[xvii] Protests against Canadian financial institutions during the late 1960’s and especially during the 1970’s erupted due to increasingly limited access to capital by Caribbean nationals and small firms, and the increased Canadian control of profitable sectors which were seen as being colonial in nature. Due to the successful institutionalization and accessibility (high number) of these Canadian banks, national government savings banks and indigenous credit associations found themselves unable to compete[xviii] with an already embedded financial architecture ruled by Canadian banks. The turmoil against these enterprises attempted to undermine public confidence in the banks, and by implication attack racism and neocolonialism.[xix]

IMFs Facilitation of Canadian Financial Institutions Dominance in FECC (1980s SAPs)

Thus, Canadian ownership of financial institutions within the region had to face rising Caribbean consciousness of exploitation by these institutions. The resurgence of these Canadian financial institutions in the 1980’s-1990’s—understood to be exploitative within the region—could only happen in light of IMF-mandated reforms. Unfortunately, the unique positioning of these banks after the implementation of IMF SAPs was due to the failure of the 1970’s FECC turmoil against Canadian financial institutions to address the economic structures (institutionalization) that facilitated these Canadian banks’ presence since the colonial period. What this means is that during the turmoil of the 1970s, Caribbean governments, elites, and nationals focused on decolonization and the “racial holdovers of colonialism, [which] did not represent anything near to a radical critique of the racial and economic structures facilitating Royal Bank’s practices of accumulation. Nor did this moderate critique propose structural reforms within the political economy of decolonization in an era of neocolonialism.”[xx]

In the 1960s and 1970s protestors in the FECC demanded that Canadian banks institute localization policies. However, these policies had “little effect on power relations” and usually resulted in these banks repatriating all of their profits before including a local figurehead.[xxi] After these local figureheads were installed many of these institutions simply dropped ‘Canada’ from their name and added a regional moniker (e.g. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) → First Caribbean International Bank).[xxii] The reforms implemented by the IMF were influenced by neoliberal policies based on austerity, the benefits of the free market, free trade as a trade doctrine, deregulation, decreased government spending, increased role of the private sector, and more. Unsurprisingly, this had the effect of creating a favourable environment for foreign entities and investors, at the expense of these countries that were unable, due to crises, to compete in the free market, because they specialized in cheap commodity goods. The only institutions in a position to benefit from such reforms, were these foreign colonial Canadian institutions that were not quite out of the region following the 1970’s turmoil. These Canadian institutions had the means, capital, and access to networks of (Canadian) investment, that Caribbean states tended to lack.

During the economic crises which shook the Third World in the 1980’s, Canadian financial institutions embarked on an almost-total pull out from the FECC, selling most of their interests to local capitalists and regional governments with prices ranging between 1 dollar and 6 million dollars.[xxiii] What is telling about the selling of their interests, is that these Canadian corporations’ buy-backs in the region coincided with the exact same time that FECC governments implemented IMF SAPs. In 1984, Canada’s RBC bank “sold its assets in Guyana to the Guyanese government for 1 dollar (a transaction repeated by both National City Bank and Barclays).”[xxiv] During that same year, Guyana’s government borrowed money from the IMF, and one year later in 1985 Guyana was ineligible to receive further funds without the implementation of an IMF SAP due to deteriorating recovery from the crisis.[xxv] In 1989, the government of Guyana was listed as the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere—and this became the first time a country beat out Haiti for that position.[xxvi] Thus, Guyana underwent an intensive IMF SAP chaired by a Canadian support group[xxvii] to turn the Guyanese economy around by facilitating the raising of funds for the Guyanese government through Canadian (and American) buyback of assets and public utilities.[xxviii]

During this time, bauxite miners, sugarcane cutters, students and teachers in Guyana— who could no longer afford the bus fare— started to picket the Canadian High Commissioner’s Office demanding an end to the strict austerity program because of the SAP that the Commissioner had recommended to the IMF for Guyana.[xxix] The Canadian groups supporting the IMF recommended that Guyana institute an intensive austerity plan that required a 230 per cent currency devaluation, a 35 per cent rise in interest rates, and a 20 per cent wage increase.[xxx] It should also be noted that the 20 per cent wage increase only occurred in order for Guyanese to be able to afford a loaf of bread, one-half a pound of chicken, OR (not and), a gallon of rice.[xxxi] Although the Canadian High Commissioner, Frank Jackman at the time, noted that these budgetary measures were unpopular, he expressed satisfaction on a local broadcast that the Guyanese people should be reassured that “the austerity package would encourage Canadian multinational corporations to look favourably on Guyana in making decisions about where to invest.”[xxxii] Canadian purchases and investments would thus enable the Guyanese government to meet its debt payments on schedule, because Canadian support groups reasoned that money saved—through reducing social and welfare projects along with selling of assets—would be able to pay Guyana’s debts back to the IMF.

The IMF pursued a similar corporate development strategy throughout the FECC states,[xxxiii] which were encouraged by the Canadian banking community and various Canadian support groups set up specifically for the region.[xxxiv] The corporate development strategy via IMF SAPs allowed foreign buyers, including American and European buyers, to buy financial banking assets within the Caribbean. Canadian banks sold their interests in Trinidad and Tobago in 1987 to the Royal Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (RBTT),[xxxv] and in 1989 Trinidad and Tobago implemented IMF SAPs and Canadian buy-back started to help them service IMF debts. It should be noted here that American and European buyers also entered the picture as foreign entities able to profit from the region in light of IMF SAPs.[xxxvi] In 1987 Canadian banks sold their 48 per cent stake in Jamaica’s Royal Bank to Jamaica Mutual Life Assurance,[xxxvii] and in 1989, with the implementation of IMF SAPs, foreign entities started buying stakes in Jamaica.[xxxviii]

The same thing occurred in Belize in 1987 when Canadian banks were sold to Belizean investors.[xxxix] Belize then underwent an IMF SAP and the foreign buy-back started. As such, the crisis did not mark the end of Canadian banks in the FECC, but rather just a brief hiatus. After this, Canadian banks made their biggest push back into the region since their colonial introduction, facilitated by IMF reforms. Unsurprisingly, in 1989 during Canadian financial re-entry into FECC, Allan Taylor, the chairman of the Royal Bank, convinced Canadian support groups and the IMF (with the approval of the Canadian banking community) that “foreign investment in the borrowing countries would have to play a much larger role in resolving [their] debt[s].”[xl] Which of course, would benefit the stockholders of the foreign banks that are making the “investment.”

Additionally, borrowing from Canadian subsidiary banks as a means to address development problems became plausible because of the new perception put forward by these banks during their resurgence in the 1980’s. During the days of independence for FECC, one of the major effects and criticisms of Canadian financial institutions in the region was “the diversion of funds from local industry to the bank’s country of origin.”[xli] During the 1980’s when IMF SAPs were starting to be implemented, Canadian financial institutions came back with two new strategies to stave off scrutiny which began to function in the 1970’s. First, they sought to promote Canadian investment through acquisitions which would help them to retain local market shares in the region.[xlii] And second, there was intensification of Canadian aid programs to the region, which were praised by the IMF.[xliii] Interestingly enough, former Canadian representatives to the IMF were the ones heading these aid programs.[xliv] This is important, as it was these very same Canadian aid programs which facilitated the raising of funds by FECC states through advising FECC governments to sell private industry to foreign, mostly Canadian and U.S., buyers.[xlv]

Continuing Access to FECC for Canadian Financial Institutions

Of course, IMF reforms during the 1980’s did not automatically grant Canadian corporations the return to their colonial status. As previously mentioned, during the 1980’s, implementation of IMF SAPs also allowed American and European investors to purchase assets in FECC. These interests being purchased by foreigners from FECC governments and national capitalists included former Canadian interests which were sold during FECC states’ crises. From the 1990’s Canadian financial institutions’ preferred method of interaction with FECC governments was through the use of trade agreements and aid after the implementation of IMF SAPs.[xlvi] In the year 1990, Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney announced plans to increase aid to the Caribbean region, enhance access to Caribbean rum in Canada, and to forgive the debt of 11 Caribbean countries—of which 8 belonged to FECC— of up to 182 million dollars.[xlvii] This amount of debt forgiveness was the last major initiative undertaken by Canada within the region.[xlviii]

In 1993, the Canadian Regional Development Program was initiated in the Caribbean to regularly provide between 30 – 35 million dollars per year to fund infrastructure projects.[xlix] The program evolved throughout the early 90’s to include investments in human resource development, private sector development, trade policy development, and public sector economic management.[l] This effectively led to what Paget Henry called the “transformation of Caribbean labour itself into a commodity framework,”[li] as it allowed for the increased migration of Caribbean labour abroad to Canada in mining and farming from mostly FECC countries.[lii] This also contributed to the continuous brain-drain from FECC countries during the mid-1990’s and early 2000’s.[liii] According to Mary Anne Chambers, Senior Vice President of Scotia Bank (1998-2002): “I served on the Board of two Ontario hospitals, where the Chiefs of Surgery, Pediatrics, and Psychiatry were all University of the West Indies medical graduates.”[liv]

In 1998, the increasing benefits of Canadian aid and lenient workers’ programs towards the region started to come under question. The uniqueness of the deal was first recognized by Canadian rum exporters who had hoped to benefit from Canada’s 1998 protocol on rum. In 1998, the CARIBCAN agreement went into effect, which granted unilateral duty-free access to eligible goods from FECC (up until 2011).[lv] After the agreement was implemented, however, FECC rum still faced formidable barriers gaining access to Canadian markets. Unequal trade deals, thus marked the rugged relationship between the FECC and Canada throughout the late 1990’s up until 2006. Ramesh Chaitoo notes that in spite of the Caribbean being unable to take real advantage of any market access granted by Canada, Caribbean states continued to enter agreements with Canada. This is because Canada was generous throughout this period in granting aid to the region, in comparison to other donors.[lvi] Thus, this time period marked further dependence by FECC on Canada. In 2002, Canada granted duty free access to the world’s 48 least developed countries. In the Caribbean region, Haiti was the only country that qualified.[lvii] Additionally, during this time period (2002-2006), Canadian foreign direct investment (FDI) in FECC increased annually in the financial services sector.[lviii] In 2007, as part of a trade deal between Canada and the FECC, Canada increased aid to the region to 600 million dollars.[lix] Although many within FECC thought the amount was too small, as the deal would grant Canada even more market access within the region, it still passed. The general trend throughout the decade of the 2000’s was growing Canadian access to Caribbean markets, as Canada threw aid at the region in order to pass trade agreements which provided little benefit to the region.

During the 2008 financial crisis, many pundits were certain that the Caribbean region would be fine despite the major sources of their tourist arrivals being from the U.S. and E.U.—because there were no subsidiaries of foreign banks from the U.S. or E.U. within the region.[lx] Almost all the banks operating in the region were wholly or partially owned by firms headquartered in Canada—which was the developed country least impacted by the crisis. Additionally, the Canadian banks that were operating in the region acted as subsidiaries rather than branches, which would further protect these Caribbean states. However, this turned out not to be the case. Of the broad category—Latin America & the Caribbean— the Caribbean was hit hard in its productive and financial sectors.[lxi] In any event, like the crises in the 1980’s and 1990’s which allowed increased Canadian investment and corporations to enter the region at alarmingly high rates, due to IMF incentives for foreign investors, the aftermath of the 2008 crisis solidified the Canadian corporations’ monopoly on Caribbean financial institutions.[lxii]

The increased acquisitions and mergers by Canadian financial institutions which took place in FECC during the 2007/2008 financial crisis—during which many American and European investors sold their interests to Canadian and Japanese banks—allowed Canadian financial corporations to regain their colonial status in terms of financial ownership.[lxiii] Needless to say, as in the aftermath of the 1980s crises, Canadian institutions became major creditors for FECC during the ‘08 crisis through Canadian-formed support programs which facilitated their corporate buy-backs and acquisitions of other foreign entities’ interests.

The whole notion of Canadian institutions lending money to FECC states as private creditors seems almost ludicrous, as FECC still had high amounts of debt owed to the IMF both before and after the crises. However, banks were incentivized after the financial crisis of 2008 to issue debt “because it [became] cheaper than [holding] equity.”[lxiv] Additionally, most FECC states “retain[ed from colonialism] punitive system[s] of bankruptcy law, based on the old English model of bankruptcy practice,” meaning that many FECC states had “creditor friendly” laws which helped them gain access to private credit at the debtor’s expense.[lxv] Thus, domestic debt was allowed to assume a larger role in FECC only after these countries experienced greater difficulty in accessing international loans.[lxvi] The turn to domestic debt only further exposed the institutional weakness of FECC, in the form of punitive domestic credit laws, stemming from the colonial period.

Due to the subsidiary status of Canadian financial institutions, between 2012 and 2013 FECC domestic debt accounted for a little under three-fifths of FECCs total public debt, or 59 per cent—meanwhile external debts accounted for 41 per cent.[lxvii] External debts include debts owed to multilateral institutions (largely the IMF & WB at 34 per cent), bilateral agreements (state to state at 14 per cent), and others (at 6 per cent).[lxviii] Domestic debts are debts owed to national financial institutions, including commercial banks (36 per cent), non-bank financial institutions (27 per cent), and social security schemes (20 per cent).[lxix] Figure 3 by the IMF details the decreasing reliance on public (meaning external) debt in 2010.[lxx]

  Figure 4

In figure 4, the Caribbean Centre for Money and Finance (CCMF) lays out the ratio of public debt to GDP of all FECC states (and the Eastern Caribbean) for the 2012/2013-time period, which highlights the growing reliance on domestic debt. According to the CCMF the prominence of domestic debt within FECC by financial institutions is due to the servicing of short term treasury bills, bonds, and other securities, along with bank loans and overdrafts.[lxxi]

The only FECC states that haven’t made the drastic switch to foreign financial institutions as their dominant creditors are the states with lower amounts of Canadian concentration—such as Belize, Guyana, St. Vincent & the Grenadines and Grenada.[lxxii] This could be attributable to specific geopolitical requirements (Belize and Guyana both belonging to continental geographies rather than being solely island states) and the low rates of return from modern profitable FECC sectors— such as tourism—in all four of these countries, implying lower profitability rates for Canadian financial institutions.

What we also know is that in many FECC states—with the exception of Barbados—favourable policies for domestic creditors dating back to the colonial era were maintained. According to the CCMF, domestic creditors are important, because although domestic creditors receive less scrutiny that external creditors, they are still able to make “claims on the use of current fiscal revenues and therefore compete with other claims on government expenditures” in FECC.[lxxiii] This claim by the CCMF is especially troubling, considering that the private creditors of domestic debts within FECC are foreign owned, Canadian financial institutions. The CCMF contends that with this important switch to domestic debt, repayment of that domestic debt should be talked about. For instance, the repayment of domestic debts will rely on the “public’s tolerance for taxes” and “the ability of governments to meet domestic debt obligations by increasing taxes.”[lxxiv]

Although the literature on the switch to domestic debt buildup is scarce, what we do know is that domestic financing of debt is usually seen as advantageous for developing countries. This is because it increases the investor base, lowers exposure to risk if debt is denominated in the country’s currency, decreases vulnerabilities to changing capital flows, and overall tends to be safer.[lxxv] However, these benefits all come with the assumption that there is not foreign financial concentration in the developing country. The importance of understanding the implications of high domestic indebtedness to Canadian based institutions thus becomes important because domestic debt buildup in light of concentration in foreign hands becomes negative. Thus, although the CCMF alludes to government expenditures having to take into account claims by creditors as a downside to domestic debt buildup within FECC, there is also another downside. FECC must also consider its decreasing investor base, the currency it utilizes when taking on domestic debt, the increased and continued vulnerability to changes in capital flows and the overall risk associated with weak national financial institutions. Therefore, the turn to domestic debt by FECC appears to be a result of greater (external) indebtedness.

In short, we see the continued effects of colonialism and neo-colonialism in FECC financial institutions. Canada’s financial expansion into FECC was facilitated by Great Britain’s colonial rule throughout the FECC. Canadian banks were allowed to operate based on the banks’ linkages with colonial British finance capital—providing the British with mainland financial access to North America, and maritime trade in the late 19th to early 20th century. Thus, from the historical perspective, FECC banking laws “when they were written, were written with our [Canadian] help and advice for our [Canadian] benefit.”[lxxvi] Between the 1980’s and 1990’s (as well as today), little difference in terms of bank benefits exists. Canadian banks, as in colonial times, are still able to benefit from the most profitable sectors of Caribbean economies, almost exclusively. With this sort of monopolistic and beneficial policy power, Yves Engler notes that what is unchanged from colonial times to the 1970’s is the traditionally conservative nature of Canadian banks in “releasing capital to local manufacturers, retailers and farmers.”[lxxvii] This is unsurprising in today’s context, given these banks’ subsidiary status within FECC. As subsidiary banks, Canadian banks are able to raise capital from investors and allocate small portions of their capital towards loans. Thus, due to the low amounts of loans that they are able to give to businesses, they can defend their selectivity—of only siding with profitable sectors linked to things like tourism—as part of their subsidiary status.

To Engler, Canadian lending policies have had the adverse effect of stunting the region’s development and heightening its dependency on foreign imports—as these subsidiary profits are repatriated back to Canada (see tables below).[lxxviii] Related to Engler’s findings of Canadian involvement in the financial sector, and the discriminatory policies of these banks towards small businesses and Caribbean nationals, Kevin Edmonds[lxxix] states in his analysis of Engler’s book that “foreign multinationals can easily access credit to develop enclave industries”[lxxx] that disproportionately benefit “industries like tourism and extractive industries such as mining [which are] being dominated by foreign interests which repatriate their profits.”[lxxxi] Of course, Canadian corporate takeover of the FECC’s financial sector is rooted in its colonial and neocolonial history, along with IMF policies which prohibited political and economic self-determination in the region.

Conclusions

This piece originally intended to discuss the limited international market access for FECC, but it turns out that the biggest obstacle to access—thus to FECC development—is the narrow ownership structure of debt and of loans from financiers, concentrated largely amongst Canadian financial institutions which give preferential treatment to dependent sectors of society that are the most vulnerable to external shocks. The financial dominance of these firms either shuts out borrowing or makes borrowing very expensive for small private firms that are not tied to profitable (super exploitative) sectors like tourism (and its associated sectors).

The political economy of FECC is one structured by debt being serviced through a narrow ownership structure that contradicts FECC sovereignty—thus FECC economic security. What has been unchanged since colonialism is that the FECC, as a region, is being utilized by external entities as commodity states that enhance and enrich external interests of capital at the expense of internal solutions to development. Colonial era financial relationships—with Canadian financial firms being the main beneficiaries— have been allowed to continue due to the failure of FECC independence to effectively halt Canadian imperialism in their financial sectors. Canadian ownership did wane during turmoil beginning in the 1970’s and crises in the 1980’s, however, after the implementation of IMF SAPs by FECC states, Canadian resurgence grew. After the crisis of 2007/2008, Canadian financial institutions became the most concentrated financial institutions in the FECC region—more so than their American and European counterparts. The most adverse effect of FECC debt build-up has been the ownership of that debt which has locked the region into dependent relationships with the IMF, and increasingly to Canadian financial institutions.

 

By Tamanisha Jennifer John, Extramural Contributor at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Additional editorial support provided by Ann Jefferson, Senior Editor

[i] Sumiko Ogawa, Joonkyu Park, Diva Singh, & Nita Thacker (2013). Financial Interconnectedness & Financial Sector Reforms in the Caribbean. IMF: Source: Bankscope and Fund staff calculations. Note: ECCU (June 2011); Trinidad and Tobago (March-April 2011); Jamaica (December 2010); The Bahamas (April 2011); Barbados (2010); Belize (September 2011); and Guyana (Republic Bank: 2010; and Scotia Bank: October 2011). Web: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13175.pdf

[ii] Hugues Létourneau and Pablo Heidrich (2010). Canadian Banks Abroad: Expansion and Exposure to the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. The North-South Institute

[iii] Yves Engler (2010). The Black Book of Canadian Foreign Policy. Fernwood Publishing, p.120

[iv] Ibid. At the Canada-West Indies Conference of 1925, one attendee remarked: “When a country like Canada or the United States wants to build a big hotel, companies are formed and the money is supplied by either the banks or the insurance companies…in Jamaica, we can neither get the banks nor the insurance companies to [lend] us any money to put up hotels”

[v] Ibid. p.120; Peter Hudson (2010). Imperial Designs: The Royal Bank of Canada in the Caribbean. Race & Class Sage. P33-48: p.33-34: Bank Protests first starting during T&T ‘February Revolution’ which turned violent starting on April 26,1970 when protestors stormed the Royal bank of Canada’s Port of Spain headquarters. Accordingly, the Canadian bank manager shut down the branch, sent the staff home, and then went golfing. However, some also report that the manager was “startled” by the protests and what he and other Canadians saw as their new role in the Caribbean: that of the “colonialist under siege” …. “two years earlier in 1968, unemployed Black youth attacked the Royal Bank’s Kingston, Jamaica, branch and the offices of other foreign corporations and financial institutions; this was during the protests that spread from the University of the West Indies to the streets of West Kingston following the debarring of Guyanese academic and revolutionary Walter Rodney from his post at Mona and his expulsion from Jamaica.”

[vi] Engler (2009). Canada in the Caribbean: A Hidden History. Rabble. Web: http://rabble.ca/news/2009/05/canada-caribbean-hidden-history; Hudson (2010). Imperial Designs. p.34: Canada has done well in projecting an image abroad as a benign, non-ideological force; liberal, tolerant, politically disinterested, high-minded in its aims, if gamely naive to its effects.

[vii] Hudson (2010). Imperial Designs. p.35 C.L.R James’s talk was titled ‘On Trinidad’ and was republished in a leftist journal, Macleans, in Montreal.

[viii] Ibid. p. 33-48: Hudson is mainly concerned with understanding the Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) imperialism in the Caribbean (English, French, and Spanish). He looks at how RBC’s imperialism has connections, both with economic and trade policy, as well as the ideologies of Canadian Anglo-Saxonism. Hudson notes that the latter also shaped the Canadian financial elite’s role in maintaining the integrity of the British and American empires. His study provides a nice background of Canada in the Caribbean, including the concentration of Canadian financial institutions within the Caribbean.

[ix] Ibid. p.35

[x] Ibid. p.36

[xi] Ibid. p.38

[xii] Ibid. p.38

[xiii] Ibid. p.38-39

[xiv] Ibid. 39

[xv] Ibid. 39: What this means is that these workers’ pay would go into these Canadian banks in their FECC country of origin, which further exploited the mobility of these workers by putting profits from banking back into Canada.

[xvi] Ibid. 41: One such song sings: “Everyone is bound to confess, that the Royal Bank of Canada is the very best. The reason why they have stood the test, the highest banking record to all the rest. If you think it’s not true, the ‘Guardian’ of the 31st Dec. will convince you.” Needless to say, not everyone sang these songs. Some Caribbean nationals did not sing these songs because they were seen as a threat to independence by foreign entities. Americans worried that Canadian banking power would set unfair interest rates on loans to sugar. And the British worried that songs like these would pose another threat to their empire’s legitimacy within their colonies.

[xvii] Ibid. p.37

[xviii] Ibid. p.39: “These savings accounts competed with both Indigenous credit associations and government savings banks. In some cases, such as in Haiti, the [Royal] Bank paid no interest on deposits even as it profited from lending out these previously inactive sources of Caribbean capital.”

[xix] Ibid. p.41-44: Protests against Canadian banks in the region have a long history starting from the 1920’s in the Spanish and French Caribbean; and subsequently during the mid-1920’s protests against Canadian banks started in the English (FECC) Caribbean. Canadian banks were seen as a threat to British legitimacy (empire), American capital, and soon afterwards as a threat to fights for independence. In the 1970’s these protests turned violent within FECC countries that did not see themselves free of white exploitation, based on Canadian hiring practices and the granting of credit to foreign—thus white—Canadian, American, and British entities. It wasn’t until this violent pushback in the 70s that Canadians began training and hiring Caribbean-born workers, that were also recognized as white or close to white. These practices coincided with Caribbean “localization” policies, however, were never as radical as Caribbean protestors demanded.

[xx] Ibid. p.43: Cuba, Dominican Republic, and Haiti present unique cases in this sense as their protests against foreign ownership of financial institutions were more radical, compared to the English-speaking Caribbean countries, during the 1920s fights for rights and ownership revolving around sugar. However, in Cuba during the Cuban revolution in the late 50’s “the Che Guevera-led Banco Nacional de Cuba seized the assets of American banks operating in the country. Canadian banks, including the Royal and the Bank of Nova Scotia were spared.” What this means is that Canadian financial ownership in Cuba, was allowed to persist despite such a radical revolution. In Haiti during the late 60’s, protests were less organized, but like those in Cuba, violent. Unfortunately, unlike Cuba, in Haiti there was a mass slaughter of Haitian communists who were the leaders of the movement to get these banks out. In the Dominican Republic, protests were hijacked by right-wing groups that also killed leftists in the country.

[xxi] Ibid.: p.28-29

[xxii] Ibid. p.44: “In 1971, the Royal Bank of Trinidad and Tobago was incorporated with 47 per cent of its shares offered to the Trinidadian public. In 1973, the Jamaican government under Manley nationalised the Royal Bank of Canada and formed the Royal Bank of Jamaica, though Montreal still controlled 48 per cent of its shares.”

[xxiii] Ibid. p.44

[xxiv] Ibid. p.44

[xxv] Ramesh Ramsaran (1992). The Challenge of Structural Adjustment in the Commonwealth Caribbean. Praeger Publishers, p.xi

[xxvi] Stabroek News (2016). Guyana now Ranked below Haiti. Editors’ note: The Following Articles from 1989 are being reprinted as part of Stabroek News’ ongoing observances to mark its 30th Anniversary. Stabroek News. Web: www.stabroeknews.com/2016/features/30-years-of-stabroek-news/12/02/guyana-now-ranked-haiti/

[xxvii] Ramsaran (1992). The Challenge of Structural Adjustment. p.xi; “Canadian support groups” refers to government entities that have a stake in the Canadian financial services, and also Canadian financial services themselves. “Support groups” is used because it is the more altruistic term that was first used by the IMF, even though they were anything but support groups. These were people who wanted a “stake”— in the sense that their help/recommendations would facilitate Canadian cheap buy-back for bigger, future, accumulations of capital—in Caribbean financial services for their own benefit.

[xxviii] Ibid. p.xi-xii

[xxix] Jamie Swift & Brian Tomlinson (1991). Conflicts of Interest: Canada and the Third World. Chapter 2, The Debt Crisis: A Case of Global Usury (Jamie Swift & the Ecumenical Coalition for Economic Justice). Between the Lines. Kindle loc 1812

[xxx] Ibid. p 1-349. Kindle 1719

[xxxi] Ibid. Kindle 1719

[xxxii] Ibid. Kindle 1719

[xxxiii] Hudson (2010). Imperial Designs. p.44: “Canadian Bank operations in Belize were bought out by a group of investors. It sold its 48 per cent stake in Jamaica’s Royal Bank (Jamaica) to Jamaica Mutual Life Assurance as well as its stake in the Trinidad and Tobago’s Royal Bank to the Royal Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (RBTT) in 1987, an institution that had emerged as a powerful regional multinational with subsidiaries in Barbados, Jamaica, the Eastern Caribbean, Suriname, the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.”

[xxxiv] Jamie Swift & Brian Tomlinson (1991). Conflicts of Interest, Kindle 2075: In 1987 after selling their shares in Trinidad & Tobago, along with Jamaica, A Royal Bank Executive admitted “there certainly is a need for [the IMF] to be in there as a lender and as a disciplinarian and that’s the thing all of us like about the IMF…they, perhaps like no one else, can make conditions on loans which ensure some tightening of the belt.”

[xxxv] Hudson (2010). Imperial Designs. p.44

[xxxvi] Ramsaran (1992). Challenge of Structural Adjustment p.xi

[xxxvii] Hudson (2010). Imperial Designs. p.44

[xxxviii] Ramsaran (1992). Challenge of Structural Adjustment p.xi

[xxxix] Hudson (2010). Imperial Designs. p.44

[xl] Jamie Swift & Brian Tomlinson (1991). Conflicts of Interest. p. 1-349: Kindle 2155

[xli] Emile Sanza (1978). Canadian Relations with the Caribbean and Latin America: Perspectives on Canada’s Role in the World System. McMaster University, p.23

[xlii] Ibid. p.35

[xliii] Ibid. p. 34; Ramsaran (1992). Challenge of Structural Adjustment. p.xi

[xliv] Jamie Swift & Brian Tomlinson (1991). Conflicts of Interest. Kindle 2289

[xlv] Ramsaran (1992). Challenge of Structural Adjustment. p. xi

[xlvi] Ramesh Chaitoo (2013). Time to Rethink and Re-Energize Canada-CARICOM Relations. Caribbean Journal of International Relations & Diplomacy. vol.1, no. 1. pp. 39-67

[xlvii] Ibid. p.41

[xlviii] Ibid. p.41

[xlix] Ibid.

[l] Ibid.

[li] Paget Henry (2000). Caliban’s Reason: CH #9: Caribbean Marxism: After the Neoliberal and Linguistic Turns. Routledge, 221-246

[lii] Chaitoo (2013). Time to Rethink. p. 54-55: Due to the implementation of Memorandums of Understanding MOUs towards the Caribbean region—FECC in particular—temporary visas were issued to Caribbean citizens to work in Canada as farmers. In some cases, no visa was needed at all.

[liii] Ibid. p.45: According to the World Bank (WB), the seven countries with the highest emigration rates for college graduates in the world are in the Caribbean– and all belong to FECC.

[liv] Ibid. p.45

[lv] Ibid. p.43

[lvi] Ibid. p.43

[lvii] Ibid. p.54

[lviii] Ibid. p.49

[lix] Ibid. p.42-43

[lx] Maurice Odle (2009). The Global Financial Crisis: How Did We Get Here and How Do We Move Forward? Paper prepared for presentation at the ILO Caribbean Tripartite Conference on Promoting Human Prosperity Beyond the Global Financial Crisis, Kingston, Jamaica; Citibank from the U.S. was the only exception to this rule.

[lxi] Ibid., Insurance companies headquartered in Trinidad & Tobago and Jamaica that participated in the North American and European markets were exposed to risks. Additionally, real estate assets held by these countries in Florida were also significantly negatively impacted. Coupled with a decrease of main sector industries—like tourism and services—it was hard for these countries’ locally owned firms to bounce back. A Canadian corporation, in this event, was able to entirely take over FirstCaribbean International Bank, as a result of the crisis (now Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) FirstCaribbean).

[lxii] “History of CIBC FirstCaribbean,” Web: https://www.cibcfcib.com/fcib/about-us/history.html

[lxiii] Ibid. p.45: In 2007, Canadian banks purchased “a 50 per cent stake in the Bahamas-based Fidelity Bank & Trust International Ltd[…]In 2008, they made a bold move for the Royal Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, purchasing it for US$2.28 billion in a cash-and-stock deal for shareholders.” These purchases and acquisitions which occurred during the 2007/2008 financial crises give Canadian financial corporations the title of “the most dominant financial institutions in the Anglophone Caribbean. In the takeover of Trindad’s RBTT, although it was promised that no job losses would occur – a promise that Trinidad’s Federation of Independent Trade Unions and Non-Governmental Organisations (FITUN) doubted in protests against the merger – RBTT Chief Executive Suresh Sookoo announced the layoffs of 500 workers a year after the deal.” Hudson concludes that there is, “a critical difference to this repetition of Canadian banks’ imperial history in the Caribbean. This time, unlike the political ferment of the 1970s, there is little awareness or concern over Canada’s ‘neo-colonialist aura’ – and this time, they are not under siege.”

[lxiv] Christopher Thompson (2015). Bank Debt Issuance Doubles to Record Levels. Financial Times, Web: https://www.ft.com/content/e64de99a-9ffd-11e4-aa89-00144feab7de

[lxv] Amiri Dear (2013). Copying Canada: A Critical Analysis of the Barbados Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act. University of Toronto, p.1-70: p.7: Barbados was the only FECC state (by the time the 07/08 crises occurred) not to have such punitive laws, addressing this imbalance in 2001 through the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA).

[lxvi] UNDP (2015). Financing for Development Challenges in Caribbean SIDS: A Case for Review of Eligibility Criteria for Access to Concessional Financing. Web: www.undp.org/content/dam/rblac/docs/Research%20and%20Publications/Poverty%20Reduction/UNDP_RBLAC_Financing_for_Development_ReportCaribbean.pdf

[lxvii] International Monetary Fund (2013). Caribbean Small States: Challenges of High Debt and Low Growth. IMF. Web: https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/022013b.pdf

[lxviii] Ibid.

[lxix] Ibid.

[lxx] Ibid. The chart above details all FECC states, with the only addition being Suriname (SUR) which does not belong to FECC thus its colonial financial relationships are drastically different. Acronyms within the chart are as such: Antigua & Barbuda (ATG), The Bahamas (BHS), Barbados (BRB), Belize (BLZ), Dominica (DMA), Grenada (GRD), Guyana (GUY), Jamaica (JAM), St. Kitts & Nevis (KNA), St. Vincent & The Grenadines (VCT), and Trinidad & Tobago (TTO)

[lxxi] Caribbean Centre for Money and Finance (2014). Domestic Debt Issues in the Caribbean. CCMF. Web: www.ccmf-uwi.org/files/publications/newsletter/Vol7No10.pdf

[lxxii] Ibid.

[lxxiii] Ibid.

[lxxiv] Ibid.

[lxxv] Giovanna Bua, Juan Pradelli, & Andrea Presbitero (2014). Domestic Public Debt in Low-Income Countries: Trends and Structure. Review of Development Finance, vol.4, no.1. p. 1-19. Web: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879933714000037

[lxxvi] Engler (2010). The Black Book of Canadian Foreign Policy. Fernwood Publishing, p.137

[lxxvii] Ibid. p.120

[lxxviii] Ibid. p.120; ECLAC (2011). Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean. ECLAC: “Most of the credits granted by foreign banks are in the local currency and are channeled through their local subsidiaries.”

Web: repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/1147/S1200385_en.pdf?sequence=1

[lxxix] Kevin Edmonds (2012). Canadian Banks and Economic Control in the Caribbean. The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA). Web: http://nacla.org/blog/2012/3/15/canadian-banks-and-economic-control-caribbean

[lxxx] Ibid.

[lxxxi] Ibid.

Lundin Says Hurri Exploration Well In Barents Sea ‘Was Dry’

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Lundin Petroleum said that its wholly owned subsidiary Lundin Norway has completed the drilling of the Hurri exploration well 7219/12-3S located in PL533 in the southern Barents Sea. The well was dry.

Lundin Petroleum said that the main objectives of the well were to test the reservoir properties and hydrocarbon potential of the Upper Jurassic Hekkingen formation and Middle Jurassic Stø formation.

The well encountered no reservoir development in the Hekkingen formation and good reservoir in the Stø formation but with no indications of hydrocarbons. Extensive data acquisition and sampling were carried out, Lundin Petroleum said.

The well was drilled using the semi-submersible drilling rig Leiv Eiriksson which after completion of operations on the Hurri well will proceed to abandon the Filicudi discovery well, also located in PL533.

Lundin Norway is the operator of PL533 with a 35 percent working interest. The partners are Aker BP with 35 percent and DEA Norge with 30 percent.


Trump Says He Will Sign Legislation Protecting Young Immigrants From Deportation

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By Ken Bredemeier

U.S. President Donald Trump told key lawmakers Tuesday that he would sign whatever legislation they agreed upon to protect hundreds of thousands of young immigrants from being deported and to improve security along the country’s border with Mexico.

In an extraordinary televised meeting at the White House, Trump said that comprehensive immigration reforms could be dealt with later. He said he still believed a wall needed to be built along at least part of the 3,200-kilometer (1,990-mile) U.S.-Mexico border, but he seemed to back off earlier demands that it be funded immediately.

“When this group comes back with an agreement, I’m signing it,” Trump said.

A statement from the White House press secretary said, “President Donald J. Trump just concluded a successful bipartisan and bicameral meeting on immigration reform. During the closed-door portion of the meeting, they reached an agreement to negotiate legislation that accomplishes critically needed reforms in four high-priority areas: border security, chain migration, the visa lottery, and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy.”

The U.S. leader said lawmakers need first to protect as many 800,000 young immigrants — brought illegally to the United States years ago by their parents, mostly from Mexico and Central American countries — from being deported. Trump last year rescinded DACA, an administrative program implemented by former President Barack Obama that protected the youths from deportation, but he gave Congress until March 5 to come up with legislation that provided similar protections.

Trump normally dismisses reporters and photojournalists from his meetings after perfunctory remarks, but on Tuesday he allowed them to watch the immigration discussions with lawmakers for 45 minutes.

Some Republican lawmakers pushed back on Trump’s agreement to prioritize dealing with young immigrants — sometimes called Dreamers after the DREAM Act, earlier federal legislation that would have provided protections similar to those in DACA but was never approved. But as the discussion continued, Trump also said border “security” needed to be dealt with, even as he left it up to the lawmakers to work out details.

Trump’s new homeland security chief, Kirstjen Nielsen, told him, “Border security has to be part of this or we’ll be back here three, four or five years from now,” still dealing with illegal immigration across the border with Mexico.

U.S. officials say Trump’s hard line on immigration policies last year sharply cut the number of migrants entering the country illegally from Mexico.

The contentious immigration issue took center stage as Trump and Congress face a January 19 deadline to agree on a federal spending plan that will run through September. They already have been forced three times to agree on temporary plans.

But rather than wait another two months to vote on legislation protecting the immigrants in the country under DACA, Democratic lawmakers are pushing to resolve the issue as part of the budget talks.

Trump, even as he rescinded the DACA program, has occasionally voiced sympathy for the plight of the young immigrants, many of whom know the U.S. as their only home. But in exchange, Trump wants passage of a number of other immigration-related measures, including the effort to increase border security by constructing a wall that he vowed during his 2016 presidential campaign would be built and paid for by Mexico.

Now Trump has called for an initial $18 billion in U.S. taxpayer funding for the wall, a proposal that Democrats and some Republican lawmakers oppose.

A compromise — with protection for the young immigrants and some enhanced border security, without construction of the wall — could eventually be reached. But lawmakers said that was not likely at Tuesday’s meeting as they considered options for resolving the standoff with Trump.

The top Democrat in the House of Representatives, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California, told reporters Monday, “I think we will” reach an agreement on the young immigrants, mainly because neither Democrats nor Republicans want the lack of a spending bill to force a partial government shutdown at the end of next week.

She said negotiations would center on what immigration compromises Trump might be willing to make with Democrats, because “Republicans will by and large vote for anything the president supports. So that’s where the negotiations are taking place.”

A key Senate Republican, Texas Senator John Cornyn, said, “I do want us to get to a solution.”

Catholicism Is Not Inclusive – OpEd

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When the pastor of a rural Minnesota Catholic church learned that three male musicians each claimed to be married to a man, he dismissed them. When officials at a suburban Maryland Catholic school learned that a substitute teacher and field hockey coach was associated with a white supremacist group, they dismissed him.

Both decisions were merited.

The Catholic Church opposes gay marriage and racism. While neither the gay men nor the white supremacist were openly flouting their convictions, once their status became publicly known, Catholic officials  had little choice but to dismiss them. Not to do so would be to give sanction to behaviors that are in direct contradiction to the teachings of the Church.

That should be the end of the story. However, the three gay men have garnered some community support, and one of them is refusing to leave the church. There has been no positive reaction to the teacher who has ties to racists, and he is not contesting the decision to fire him.

Similarly, gay activists have taken up the cause of the gay musicians, maintaining that the Catholic Church should be inclusive. But that is precisely the argument that white racists could make regarding the Maryland teacher: the Church should welcome everyone.

The word catholic means universal, but it is a profound misreading of Catholicism to suggest that it is an inclusive organization. It is not. Nor for that matter is any institution: from the smallest cell in society, namely the family, to global organizations such as the United Nations, all are founded on exclusivity: they have lines of authority, based on either kinship or institutional strictures, that exclude those who do not qualify for membership.

Diversity, si. Inclusiveness, no. That is what Catholicism represents.

Afghanistan Peace: Two Steps Back, One Step Forward – Analysis

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There seems to be little acknowledgment of the fact that a successful negotiating process with the conflicting parties in Afghanistan requires a strong understanding of their facts, the way they function, and their intentions and aims.

The aim of the Taliban is to rule over Afghanistan and implement a new narrative of Jihad. This is due to similar reasons that many other international terrorist organizations emerging in Afghanistan. The likes of  which also include: the powerful Islamic State of Khurasan (IS-K) that emerged in the year 2014 in Afghanistan. The IS-K group consists of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), senior members from Khyber Agency and Orakzai Agency of Pakistan. However, the war in Afghanistan has entered a strategic stalemate  where none of the parties have been able to gain military victories in the Afghan conflict.

One possible resolution could be a regional consensus on the conflict, where the possibility of terror spilling over into other countries is feasible. More than five years after the drawing back of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s troops, the security situation and  violence in Afghanistan remains constant but, for sure violence will stop if regional countries support the Afghan government. There should be strong backing from China and Russia, as they are responsible great powers in the region. The US should maintain mutual trust and win-win cooperation strategies by collaborating with China and Russia to defeat terrorism in the region.

Standalone military solutions are not momentarily possible or cost effective, and any such approaches are therefore less significant to the US working with others is the only option. In order to defeat the Taliban and IS-K militarily the US should work with neighboring countries, especially the regional powers. But regional actors and the Afghan government In particular need to shift their focus on to  the security situation inside Afghanistan.

With waning global focus on Afghan imbroglio the conflicting interests of different external and internal players continue to undermine a peaceful settlement to the issue. Though the majority of neighboring countries are willing to support an Afghan-owned Afghan-led peace process for the settlement of the issue, China and Pakistan reinforce peace with the Taliban as an Afghan peace. Previously, the International community had launched several programs to integrate the Taliban into Afghan society but most of these programs failed miserably due to one reason or another. These programs involved disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR 2003-2006). However, not all the warlords who fought against the Taliban during the 90s disarmed themselves.

Another program included the United Nations supported “Afghanistan New Beginnings Program” (ANBP), which also included the disbandment of the illegal Armed Group (DIAG 2005) .Such other initiatives as launched by the International community failed to solve the problem of Afghanistan. The foundations laid during the first Bonn Conference  over Afghanistan in the year 2002 wasn’t favoring all the groups belonging to Afghanistan but, selective groups, with one in particular which has benefited most from that process. The idea of political negotiation and peace reconciliation with the Taliban has seen much assistance from regional countries especially China, Pakistan, Russia, and US.

However there are some reports indicating that Russia developed linkages with the Taliban through Pakistan; Russia have their own strategic interest in Afghanistan and they continue to play such connections against IS-K and to maintain Central Asian Republics (CAR’s) security at any cost, though for the Afghan government this could be a winning opportunity to convince Russians to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table.

Islamic State of Khurasan (IS-K) factor

ISIS gained support in Afghanistan and Pakistan shortly after it declared its “Caliphate” in June 2014.  A contingent of the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehrik-e-Taliban or TTP, formed ISIS’s most important support base in the region. The TTP splintered rapidly after the death of its leader Hakimullah Mehsud in November 2013. The then TTP’s spokesman Shahidullah Shahid privately offered his allegiance to ISIS several times during this period. Shahidullah might have maintained links to a senior member of ISIS’s predecessor Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), which could have encouraged TTP’s decision.

The former Pakistani Taliban have continuously been operating in the areas of Nangarhar and other parts of Afghanistan, reaching as far as the Northern part of the country. To my knowledge, as the Pakistani Taliban joined the IS-K wing, the Afghan Taliban might for all intents and purposes do the same in case regional countries do not play an active role in the Afghan peace process.

These Afghan Taliban will be assimilated into the IS group of Khurasan. Peace and reconciliation with this group will backfire and there will be no need to have peace with the IS-K, as it’s not an Afghan oriented group (most of these people are Arabs, Chechens, Uyghur, Uzbeks and Tajiks from the Central Asian Republics). The Afghan government will not be responsible to make a peace with all these Central Asian inhabitants as they do not belong to Afghanistan; Afghans will have peace and peace talks with Afghans.

There are 20 militant groups operating in Afghanistan,  at the same time the country’s security is not only fighting the Afghan battle but joining the greater regional and International wars against terrorism. In this respect Afghanistan can be considered the “frontline state against the war on terrorism”. These fundamentalist terror groups are not only the problem of Afghanistan. They are a collective problem. They can pose a risk to CARs, China, Pakistan, Russia, Iran and India in the future. It’s not just a domestic issue to be dealt by Afghanistan alone; it’s a regional issue and should be dealt with accordingly on a regional basis. The warning level of the threat should be higher than we expect, as all regional countries need to work on one policy directed at eliminating the danger inside Afghanistan, hence the danger to them.

In the past year the Taliban have abandoned attacking the Afghan civilian population and the Afghan government. On the other hand IS-K has carried out multiple attacks on Shia  sect inside Afghanistan and the overall infrastructure of the Afghan government is damaged .This shows that the Taliban are willing to have peace with the Afghan government and are not simple terrorists at face value.

Conclusion

Peace is possible with  a regional policy towards Afghanistan. At the moment every country has a different approach to the pressing issues inside Afghanistan.

Every country is on a different page in regard to its Afghanistan policy.

The US have their own agenda of containing Russia and China, China and Russia are playing the same game to prevent the spread of US influence in the region both militarily and economically.

This trust deficit between China, Russia and the US have to be resolved through diplomatic channels if Afghanistan is to see solid result wielding support.

Furthermore, given the deep-seated domestic, regional and International issues surrounding the Afghan conflict, the transition to a peaceful state is expected to be much more complex, lengthy, and varied process. Increased insecurity and instability in the region has a direct link with insecurity in Afghanistan, the motivation of which is to locally and Internationally pursue a more comprehensive mechanism of strategy to end the conflict. While conflict remains constant, different parties visualize their own solutions, because these parties all have their own geopolitical interests. The US and their allies will not secure their interests if Afghanistan continues to be embroiled in an increasing instability.

It’s necessary to have a shared vision for a peaceful Afghan state and build indigenous capability to accomplish this goal.

*Ihsanullah Omarkhail, Ex-Consultant, Studies MA International Relations at Zhejiang University, China He can be reached at ihsan.asif@gmail.com, he tweets on  @ihsan_asif

References:

Abdul Wali Arian. “20 Terrorist Groups Fighting Against Afghan Government.” Tolo News, 2017. http://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/20-terrorist-groups-fighting-against-afghan-government.
Bradley, Matt. “ISIS Declares New Islamist Caliphate.” Wall Street Journal, 2014. https://www.wsj.com/articles/isis-declares-new-islamist-caliphate-1404065263.
Casey Garret Johnson. “The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan.” Washington DC, 2016. https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/SR395-The-Rise-and-Stall-of-the-Islamic-State-in-Afghanistan.pdf.
Euan McKirdy, Ehsan Popalzai. “ISIS Suicide Bombing in Kabul Kills Dozens.” CNN. 2017. http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/28/asia/kabul-attack-intl/index.html.
Katryan Watson. “Top U.S. Commander in Afghanistan Says War ‘still in a Stalemate.’” CBS News, 2017. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/top-u-s-commander-in-afghanistan-says-effort-is-still-in-a-stalemate/.
Matt Waldman. “‘Golden Surrender?’ Discussion Paper 03.” Afghan Analysis Network, 2010. http://www.operationspaix.net/DATA/DOCUMENT/4792~v~Golden_%0ASurrender__The_Risks_Challenges_and_Implications_of_Reintegration_in_Afghanistan.p%0Adf.
Meng Qingsheng. “Chinese FM: Afghanistan and Pakistan Agreed to Improve Bilateral Ties.” CGTN, 2017. https://news.cgtn.com/news/314d544d34637a6333566d54/share_p.html.
Quie, Marissa. “Peace-Building and Democracy Promotion in Afghanistan : The Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Programme and Reconciliation with the Taliban.” Routledge 347, no. October (2017): 554–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2012.674362.
Samuel Ramani. “Understanding the Russia-Taliban Connection.” The diplomat, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/08/understanding-the-russia-taliban-connection/.
SITE Intelligence Group. “TTP Spokesman Shahidullah, Five Officials Allegedly Pledge to IS,” 2014.

The Reason Why Lithuania Is Not Friends With Neighbors – OpEd

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Lithuania has entered the New Year with a political chaos. It has turned out there are problems and complete misunderstanding between the high-ranking officials concerning Lithuanian foreign policy. National mass media perplexedly quote the President, the Prime-minister and the Minister of foreign affairs, who have completely opposite views on Lithuania’s role in the international arena.

It sounds paradoxical, but Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė, “did not consult the government before making her decision to vote in favor of a UN resolution rejecting US President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.” This was the way Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis commented her decision on the issue.

On the other hand the President called the statement made by Lithuanian Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis on the possibility of resumption of the work of the Lithuanian-Russian commission on intergovernmental cooperation irresponsible.
It has become absolutely obvious that lack of consent between Lithuanian authorities has led to the political chaos.

The situation when “left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing” is typical for Lithuanian domestic policy at least in the last five years. Probably, the fact is that Dalia Grybauskaitė and Saulius Skvernelis pursue different goals in the foreign policy. The Prime Minister is guided by national economic interests while the President is highly dependent on her previous promise to support the US and EU common strategy to restrain the growing might of Russia and its allies.

Once again national interests contradict the interests of huge international organization – NATO and EU. Having received huge financial resources she lost voice in these organizations. The more so Dalia Grybauskaitė also lobbies the US policy in Europe though it very often harms the national economy. As a result – she could not oppose Washington’s decisions. In other words she “works out” the funds received by exaggerating the threat coming from Russia and its neighbor Belarus.

Such foreign policy may be a straightforward consequence of failed domestic policy. The President could not find ways to restore the state economy after gaining independence. She has become accustomed to rely on external NATO, EU and the US assistance and continues to do so further. As soon as the issue of the threat from the East ceases to sound loudly, the president tries to aggravate the problem by inventing horror stories, for example about the Russian-Belarus Zapad 2017 exercise when the strength of involved troops was greatly overestimated in order to gain additional attention and financial aid.

Lithuanian Prime minister, who suggested resuming political contacts with Moscow, said that dialogue between Lithuania and Russia could address issues relating to trade, energy, and transport cooperation, as well as issues relating to agriculture, carriers, and the situation with teachers of the Lithuanian language in the Kaliningrad region. For Lithuania it is a good chance not only to support national economy but also restore lost ties.

Former President Rolandas Paksas, for example, reminds that Lithuania has three strategic political directions: NATO and EU membership as well neighborhood policy. It seems as if the third direction is no more actual one for the President.

He also blamed Dalia Grybauskaitė for refusing to negotiate not only with Russia but with Belarus. Today Lithuania fiercely protests against the construction of a Belarusian nuclear power plant about 50 kilometers from Vilnius, but, in his opinion, it was the unwillingness to talk and negotiate that led the Belarusians to build a station in a place so unsuitable for Lithuania.

Lithuania cannot establish good neighbor relations even with Poland, that is NATO and EU members either.

The President forgets or consciously does not want to use Lithuania’s advantageous geographical position. After all, Lithuania can and should play the role of a bridge between the West and the East in all spheres: cultural, economic and even military.

Today, Western countries communicate directly with Russia, and the heads of state do not refuse meetings and contacts, so it is unclear why Lithuania can not do the same.

“Peace cannot be kept by force; it can only be achieved by understanding,” said Albert Einstein.

Pakistani Politics Risk Aggravating Problems And Heightening Regional Tension – Analysis

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Self-serving Pakistani politics threaten to aggravate the country’s myriad problems that have strained its relations with the United States and could heighten tension in the restless, key geo-strategic region of Balochistan, a vital node bordering Iran in China’s Belt and Road initiative and the earmarked home for the People’s Republic’s second foreign military base.

Pakistan’s short-sighted political battles are being fought at a time of worsening relations with the United States over alleged Pakistani support of militants and concern that the United States may withdraw from the 2015 international nuclear agreement with Iran. They potentially create a dilemma for China which is heavily invested in Pakistan with its more than $50 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Keen to prevent ousted former Prime Minister Nawal Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League – PML-N from winning a majority in elections scheduled for July, the Pakistani military, in the latest incident, appears to be backing efforts to force Nawab Sanaullah Zehri, the PML-N Chief Minister of Balochistan, to resign.

The stage to remove Mr. Zehri was set last week when the province’s interior minister, Sarfaraz Bugti, known for his close ties to the armed forces, stepped down after co-sponsoring a motion of no-confidence in the chief minister in the provincial assembly.

The targeting of Mr. Zehri, signalled the closing of the door on already failed efforts to drive a wedge between various nationalist Baloch insurgent groups and weaken Islamic militants that have wreaked havoc in Balochistan with attacks on Chinese, Pakistani military, and Shiite targets.

Closing the door amounted to kicking a dead body. Informal contacts between the Baloch provincial government, the federal government when Mr. Sharif was still in office, and Brahmdagh Bugti, a Baloch nationalist living in exile in Switzerland, who heads the Baloch Republican Party, fizzled out when Mr. Zehri came to office in late 2015. Nonetheless, Mr. Zehri refrained from slamming the door shut.

By the same token, Mr. Bugti’s demand that Pakistan end its military and paramilitary operations against nationalist forces in Balochistan, a resource-rich, population-poor region the size of France that straddles the border with the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan, as a pre-condition for formal talks was likely one reason that the contacts failed.

More militant nationalists refused to endorse Mr. Bugti’s position, but quietly watched whether he would make headway. Even so, there was no guarantee that the militants would have accepted a deal negotiated by Mr, Bugti, whose grandfather, Nawab Bugti, was killed by the military in 2006, a year after he had presented a plan for greater Baloch autonomy that stopped short of demanding independence.

The timing of the effort to topple Mr. Zehri and foreclose renewed contacts with Baloch nationalist factions could not be more sensitive. It comes, against the backdrop of a long history of military support for militant religious groups to counter the nationalists in Balochistan, and at a moment that the armed forces have used militants elsewhere to weaken the PMN-L while at the same time refute US allegations that it backs extremists in Pakistan as well as Afghanistan.

The Trump administration said last week that it was cutting almost all security aid to Pakistan believed to total more than $1 billion until it deals with militant networks operating on its soil. Pakistan, in response and in advance of a visit this month by a United Nations Security Council team to evaluate Pakistani compliance with its resolutions, has sought to crack down on the fundraising and political activities of Hafez Saeed, an internationally designated terrorist accused of having masterminded the 2008 attacks in Mumbai.

The crackdown constitutes a double-edged sword. Pakistan and its military needs to be seen to be acting against internationally designated terrorist groups, yet Mr. Saeed has been treated over the years with kid gloves. His organization was allowed to continue operations under multiple guises and although he was put under house arrest several times, he was not remanded behind bars. It wasn’t clear whether the crackdown by the PMN-L-led federal government of Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has the backing of the military.

Mr. Saeed has recently attempted to move into mainstream politics with the backing of the military. Military support was “a combination of keeping control over important national matters like security, defense and foreign policy, but also giving these former militant groups that have served the state a route into the mainstream where their energies can be utilized,” a senior military official said. Mr. Saeed, who headed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), widely viewed as one of South Asia’s most violent groups, was a military proxy in confronting India in Kashmir.

Associates of Mr. Saeed said that their participation in this summer’s election was in part designed to prevent the PMN-L from returning to office. “There is little else more patriotic than ensuring the ouster of the Sharifs. Pakistan needs a government that serves Pakistani, not Indian interests”, said Nadeem Awan, a spokesman for Jamat u-Dawa, widely seen as a LeT front headed by Mr. Saeed.

Former Pakistani strongman General Pervez Musharraf, said last month that he was discussing an alliance with Milli Muslim League (MML), the political party Mr. Saeed is trying to register. Speaking on Pakistani television, Mr. Musharraf pronounced himself “the greatest supporter of LeT.”

The military, also last month, displayed its political influence and inclination by mediating an end to a weeks-long blockade of a main artery leading into Islamabad to protest a perceived softening of the government’s adherence to Islam in a proposed piece of legislation.

The resolution was seen as favouring Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TPL), the organizer of the protest. TPL is a political front for Tehreek Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah (TLR), which glorifies Mumtaz Qadri, who was executed for killing Punjab governor Salman Taseer because of his opposition to Pakistan’s draconic blasphemy law.

All in all, the Pakistani military appears to be embroiled in battles on multiple fronts in a Herculean effort to satisfy target audiences with contradictory demands. Countering the PML-N by supporting religious forces complicates refuting US allegations of support for militants.

It also risks escalating violence in Balochistan and enhancing opportunity for external players like the United States and Saudi Arabia to use the province as a launching pad for efforts to destabilize Iran should they opt to travel down that road.

President Donald J. Trump has to decide this month whether to certify Iranian compliance with the nuclear agreement and waive US sanctions. A failure to do so could lead to a US withdrawal from the agreement.

China, by the same token, sees Pakistan’s use of proxies against India as useful, yet needs stability in Balochistan to secure its massive investment.

Pakistan could well be the ultimate loser in battles between its various institutions that appear focused more on vested interests than on resolving issues that have long held the country back such as extremism, intolerance, and ensuring fundamental rights. In pursuit of their own interests, neither the United States nor China appear willing to help their Pakistani allies look beyond their narrow and most immediate concerns towards the development of policies that would launch the country on a path of security, stability and economic prosperity.

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