ASEAN should have a stronger electronics sector to remain a competitive and dynamic region. The greatest challenge facing ASEAN is the impact of disruptive technologies. Can the region adapt?

By Phidel Vineles*

Electronics is the largest export sector in ASEAN, equivalent to 25 percent of the region’s total exports in goods. According to the ASEAN Secretariat, the bulk of the world’s consumer electronics comes from the ASEAN region. Moreover, over 80 percent of the world’s hard drives are produced in ASEAN countries.

As such, ASEAN should be responsive to the latest trends and developments in the global economy so as to remain competitive. For instance, the rising labour cost in China could stimulate the growth of the ASEAN electronics sector. Low labour cost in ASEAN will attract more foreign direct investments (FDIs) from multinational companies (MNCs). However, the emergence of disruptive technologies such as automation and robotics could also threaten the manufacturing opportunity in the sector.

Electronics Industry: Engine of Growth

How important is the electronics industry in ASEAN? Electrical and electronics (E&E) is one of the region’s most important sectors, directly employing more than 2.5 million workers in ASEAN, according to the International Labour Office (ILO). It is also described as a mainstay of the region’s economic growth.

In Singapore, for example, Minister for Trade and Industry S. Iswaran said that the country’s electronics manufacturing sector is expected to create a total of 2,100 new jobs for professionals, managers, executives and technicians (PMETs) by 2020. Moreover, the sector also accounted for 4.4 percent of Singapore’s GDP last year, generating a total of S$90 billion in manufacturing output.

Other countries in the region also show great potential in the sector. According to the ASEAN Secretariat, Thailand’s electronic assembly bases consisted of over 2,300 companies and employed 400,000 workers. Thus, the country is recognised as a global leader in production of integrated circuits, semiconductors, and hard drives. Thailand is also the world’s fourth largest producer of refrigerators and second largest for air-conditioning units.

The Philippines is also a top producer of hard drives and semiconductors. ASEAN Secretariat data shows that the country is presently supplying the world with 2.5 million hard drives per month and also represents 10 percent of the world’s semiconductor manufacturing services.

Malaysia’s electronics and electrical sector has more than 1,695 companies with a total investment of US$35.5 billion, which could increase further through investment in research and development (R&D). Vietnam’s electronics industry is the third largest in ASEAN and the country is the 12th largest exporter in the world, according to advisory firm Dezan Shira & Associates.

The largest ASEAN economy, Indonesia, is also an electronic manufacturing hub with more than 250 companies and has attracted large corporates, according to its Investment Coordinating Board. Myanmar is also set to compete in labour-intensive industries, taking advantage of its low employee costs.

Technology Trends

Looking ahead, it is important for ASEAN member states to anchor their policies on technology trends that are likely to transform the E&E sector. ILO said that robotic automation, 3D printing and the Internet of Things (IoT) will have significant impacts on the electronics industry. Policymakers across the region should introduce policies that will help raise labour skills to ensure that the E&E sector will take advantage of its growth potentials.

According to ILO, more than 60 percent of workers of the E&E sector in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam are at high risk of automation. Moreover, although it is said that people exceed the capabilities of robotic automation in overall assembly, robotic automation is continuously replacing lower-skilled tasks like packaging and assembling jobs.

Hence, policymakers across the region should encourage youths to pursue their education in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). Doing this will allow ASEAN member states to possess higher skilled labour.

Robotic automation’s impact on the E&E sector must be examined to determine what policies should be implemented in the region. The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) noted that there are four groups in the E&E sector that will account for 75 percent of robotic automation installations by 2025: electrical equipment, appliances and components; computers and electronic products; transport equipment; and machinery.

Need to Study Trends

This projection is worthy of study by ASEAN given that some of its member states have gained prominence in the said industry groups. For example, Thailand is the world’s second largest producer of air-conditioning units.

The deployment of 3D printing throughout ASEAN’s E&E sector is another technology trend. 3D printing’s future adoption should not be a surprise because there are reports that 3D printed circuits will become commercially available next year, according to ILO. The challenge for ASEAN is to increase its human capital investment, considering that the application of this technology requires high labour skills.

The rise of the Internet of Things (IoT) is opening up new opportunities for the region. ILO said that IoT is projected to provide significant opportunities for semiconductor companies because this technology will stimulate demand for connectivity, memory and sensors.

IoT is also seen to ramp up the global annual revenue of the semiconductor industry, especially since this technology could help the E&E sector produce innovative products like IoT integrated consumer devices.

Towards a Stronger Sector

For a stronger E&E sector, ASEAN should include the emerging technology trends such as 3D printing and IoT as part of its key areas of cooperation. Such cooperation should be through investment and capacity building. Regional investment activities must be devoted to strengthening human capital to acquire high labour skills for high value-added activities.

This will help facilitate the growth of the E&E sector through higher-value activities and technology upgrades. It is important to underscore that failure to invest in education and skills training might drive FDIs out to other countries.

Capacity building must also be developed among member states to enhance their electronics skills base. It could be in the form of building ASEAN centres of excellence in the areas of innovation, product design, and research and development (R&D). Collaboration involving technical vocational education and training (TVET) institutions across the region is also important, apart from information sharing among member states.

*Phidel Vineles is a Senior Analyst with the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

The Digital Silk Road component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides Cambodia with an opportunity to advance on its path towards the knowledge-based economy. While both Cambodia and China can achieve a win-win situation, Phnom Penh’s position in ASEAN can also be strengthened.

By Prashanta Pradhan*

Earlier this year, Huawei, a leading Chinese telecommunication company, sealed a partnership with Malaysia’s Smart Axiata to launch 4.5G mobile connectivity in Cambodia. This will give ten times faster mobile Internet speed than normal 4G. This is just an example of China’s role and potential in Cambodia’s economic development. China contributed the highest share of invested capital (30%) and bilateral aid (36%) for Cambodia in 2016. In 2016 alone, total trade between Cambodia and China reached US$4.8 billion while Chinese investments in Cambodia amounted to more than US$5.1 billion. It is timely for Cambodia that the Digital Silk Road component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is gaining momentum.

Digital Silk Road

Cambodia is a fast growing developing economy. The country aims to boost its technological skill and infrastructure base on its path towards a knowledge-based economy as envisioned in Cambodia’s Industrial Development Policy (IDP) 2015-25. To realise this vision, the country needs to tap the bigger platform of economic opportunities on digital technologies and sustainable development under the Digital Silk Road.

Traditional physical infrastructure like roads and energy provides the foundation for trade and economic growth. But technology and innovation infrastructure provides the tools for Cambodia to take bigger leaps to advance towards a middle-income country. Negotiating more investment and aid under the Digital Silk Road shall enable Cambodia to employ the Internet of Things and Industry 4.0.

This can lead to opportunities including competitiveness enhancement, economic diversification, skill upgradation and deeper participation in regional and global value chains. During Prime Minister Hun Sen’s visit to China for the Belt and Road Summit in May 2017, China granted US$240 million in aid to Cambodia covering agreements
including telecommunication, marine environment monitoring and other physical infrastructure.

Telecommunications

While Cambodia has achieved good results in the telecommunication industry, opportunities are still available in upgrading the backbone and enhancing countrywide access. This is highly relevant in light of recent developments on Cambodia signing the cross-border paperless trade facilitation agreement, inclination towards
advanced manufacturing, promotion of e-governance, expansion of fintech businesses, increasing interest in launching satellite and implementing smart cities initiative. Developing ICT infrastructure is a priority area under Cambodia’s ICT Master Plan 2020. It is worth noting that at least two leading Chinese companies, Huawei and ZTE, already have active presence in the telecommunication sector in Cambodia. They plan to be major players in China’s BRI projects abroad. The telecommunication business in Cambodia is relatively limited unless the companies in Cambodia are able to penetrate the market of the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS).

In this respect, those firms operating out of Cambodia will face stiff competition from their Vietnamese and Thai counterparts. One way is for Huawei and ZTE as well as Smart Axiata to design their future expansion in Cambodia through joint ventures with associated companies in mainland Southeast Asia.

For Cambodian engineering and technology-based firms, their development and survival will depend on the ability to serve as partners or sub-contractors with the bigger and leading foreign companies as they move into local markets to develop telecommunication infrastructure under investment cooperation in the Chinese BRI framework.

Scientific Cooperation and Sustainable Development

Cambodia’s path towards becoming a knowledge-based economy begins with development of the skills base for technology and knowledge-based industries. Enhancing R&D capability is a priority under Cambodia’s National Science and Technology Master Plan 2014-2020 and IDP.

Given the priorities of the Cambodian government, China’s planned Belt and Road Science, Technology and Innovation Cooperation Action Plan is very pertinent. This plan will consist of providing short-term visits to 2,500 young scientists, train 5,000 foreign scientists, engineers and managers as well as set up 50 joint laboratories in
the next five years.

Cambodia harbours a diverse base of natural resources given its geographical position in the GMS. It is necessary to implement policies to accelerate educational and skills development, and to orientate Cambodia’s participation in ASEAN economic and socio-cultural cooperation to create a broad and sustainable foundation for Cambodia’s knowledge-based future.

Risk Management

While there is potential for numerous opportunities under the BRI framework, Cambodia should also properly understand potential risks and devise strategies to manage them.

Information Security

Information security concerns from using foreign-built telecommunication infrastructure is not new. However, in a changing geopolitical scenario of increasing number of countries developing economic, political and military ties with China, the question is whether Cambodia should let these concerns deprive itself of economic
opportunities.

One way to go forward is to enhance the capacity of local authorities to monitor the technical processes of project management as well as negotiate proper terms with their counterparts and businesses in China when projects are being mooted. Examples could include limiting equipment manufacturers’ access to sensitive data, ensuring ownership of patent rights and requiring transparency.

Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) considerations

ESG considerations are often raised when discussing Chinese investments in developing countries. Nevertheless, Chinese investments also allow much flexibility to national governments. Hence, rather than resisting investments, an approach to enhance ESG compliance can be ensured through institutionalising proper frameworks.

Moreover, there should be due diligence mechanisms within the national systems to conduct proper feasibility and commercial viability assessments of infrastructure projects. The ongoing collaboration of multilateral development agencies with China on sustainable development issues can be extended to build institutional and oversight capacities in developing countries.

Win-win Situation

China launched BRI in 2013 to support the development of trade and infrastructure network in partner countries (currently 68) ranging from Europe along Central Asia through Southeast Asia into the Indian Ocean and beyond. Such a mega project serves China’s national interests.

Firstly, it allows exporting China’s surplus productive capacity to sustain prosperity at home. Secondly, it enables China to establish strategic geopolitical influence in specific regions and states through soft power. Cambodia must identify areas most beneficial to its own interests and capitalise on suitable opportunities.

While meeting Cambodia’s development goals, strengthening the country’s position in ASEAN — Southeast Asia’s only regional organisation — must also rank as an important objective. Technological advances will raise Cambodia’s development status and give it a stronger voice in ASEAN and beyond. In turn, this will help accelerate Cambodia’s development and progress.

*Prashanta Pradhan is a trade and investment policy specialist advising development agencies and governments, currently, based in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. He holds a Master’s degree in Public Policy from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. He contributed this to RSIS Commentary.

Vladimir Putin’s Russian Guard has announced plans to subordinate a variety of elite special forces, including the OMON, SOBR, OSpN,, and USpN, under a single command that will be capable of dispatching them to any part of Russia to put down disorders.

Izvestiya today reports that this new force will also have its own independent air power, thereby making it independent of the interior ministry on which it had to rely for this service elsewhere (iz.ru/680237/bogdan-stepovoi-aleksei-ramm-evgenii-andreev/rosgvardiia-sobiraet-elitnye-chasti-v-kulak).

Some military experts say that “the concentration of the spetsnaz of the Russian guard in a single fist will increase its mobility and effectiveness,” the Moscow paper says. But others are divided about this move, with some saying it will improve coordination among these various units while others insist that it will only create “an unnecessary bureaucratic superstructure.”

Much of what is going on may be nothing more than the growing pains of Putin’s new security force, but Izvestiya notes that “OMON officers say that there already are problems with inter-agency coordination of the Russian Guard and the Ministry of Internal Affairs,” especially with regard to its possible support of police actions.

This new force may also come in conflict with the FSB which at present has primary responsibility for combatting terrorism, and so the reform sets the stage for more infighting at the top. But it is possible that the new force will allow the Kremlin to act more quickly and effectively if protests become violent.

Training will be standardized and the new forces will be far more mobile than any hitherto. Vladislav Shurygin, a military expert, says that the new forces “can be quickly and effectively shifted to various regions and address there a wide variety of tasks: the struggle with mass disorders, the arrest of criminals and terrorists, and the performance of special ops.”

The film industry in Honduras and the rest of Central America thrives with globalization of new technologies, low costs and international festivals.

By J.H. Bográn*

Central America was united as one nation for a brief and volatile period in the mid-19^th century following independence from Spain, and the Honduran hero who served as president of the Federal Republic of Central America is the center of a historical bio-pic filmed in his homeland of Honduras by a local production company. Francisco Morazán’s name is often conjured up when discussing the one-time union of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica – and Morazán became the first Honduran film to be considered for an Academy Award.

Globalization is contributing to a new era of cinematic production in Central America due to new technologies and lower costs, GDP growth exceeding 3 percent in four of the five Central American nations, reduced fragmentation in regional film distribution, and increased sponsorship and interest from afar, not to mention that Spanish is second only to Chinese as the world’s most widely used language. Central American productions have a limited life span that starts with release in local theaters. With luck, some are picked by Latin American cable channels like Cine Latino. Increasingly, feature films and documentaries from the region are screened at international film festivals near and far from home, from Cuba to Germany, and receive prizes.

The production of Morazán, directed by Hispano Durón, was not without hiccups – the most notorious was the casting of a Colombian actor to play the lead title role. Despite initial reservations, critics and audiences flocked to the theaters and made the film certifiable hit in Honduras. The film centers on the last week in Morazán’s life, culminating with his execution in San José, Costa Rica. By request, Morazán commanded the firing squad that shot him.

The movie Morazán was the most successful among more than a dozen other films produced in Honduras that had their turn at local theaters in 2017 with various box office results. Themes of the movies varied from the comedy Cuatro Catrachos en Apuros, or Four Hondurans in Trouble, to historical bio-pics like Morazán. It’s nothing short of an industry boom for Honduras, where less than a decade ago, only one film emerged every two or three years.

Honduran director Tomas Chi credits technology. He has averaged a film per year since 2014, including 11 Cipotes (11 Kids), Fuerza de Honor (Honor Force), and just in time for the 2017 holiday season, ¿Y Los Tamales? (Where Are My Tamales?) He explains that making a motion picture was once an onerous venture, with thousands of dollars needed just for production of film reels and processing for cinemascope in local theaters. The arrival of digital technology, both for camera equipment as well as projectors, reduced costs to near zero. Suddenly, the production of a motion picture was within the grasp of dreaming young filmmakers. And they have embraced new technologies.  During production, Chi explains how the director relies on devices like tablets to record rehearsals and provide feedback to the actors.

The film industry in Central America has no direct ties with the likes of big studio production companies in Hollywood and remains the stuff of dreams for many with the most adventurous investing their own money to achieve those dreams. Most productions require sponsorship from companies in the private sector and, in most cases, the government as well. The region’s banks do not consider filmmaking a viable investment, at least not yet.

A distinctive film industry is emerging in each Central American country based on their previous success. For instance, Nicaragua has not produced a fiction film since 2014 with La Pantalla Desnuda, or The Naked Screen. Instead, the local producers have focused on documentaries that have been well received in international film festivals in Costa Rica and Cuba. Two documentaries by local producers opened in December: Las Mujeres de Wangki, or Wangki’s Women by Rossana Lacayo, and Heredera del Viento, or Wind’s Heir by Gloria Carrión.

The future of film production in the country looks bright with its acceptance to Ibermedia in 2017, according to Karly Gaitán Morales, Nicaraguan film historian and journalist. Ibermedia launched in 1998 and has since sponsored more than 600 projects, many of them lauded in international film festivals like San Sebastian or Sundance and even with a handful of Academy Award nominations. The program currently has 21 members: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Chile, Ecuador, Spain, Guatemala, Italy, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Perú, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Venezuela.

Costa Rica has become a beacon for Central American cinema with the Costa Rica Festival Internacional de Cine, sponsored by the Costa Rican Center for Film Production, or Centro de Cine, a branch of the country’s Ministry of Culture and Youth. The sixth annual festival closed in December with 10 days of more than 70 feature films, documentaries and shorts in 18 languages shown in theaters throughout the city of San José. Their awards, including three specifically for Central American films, are coveted prizes, and the festival received productions from 35 countries this year.

The film industry in Honduras is young, but growing with increasingly ambitious productions and young players. In 2017, producer and director Juan Carlos Fancony of Honduras released Un Lugar en el Caribe, or Somewhere in the Caribbean, with international actors and international filming locations from Los Angeles to the Bay Islands. After its run in theaters, the movie received airtime on HBO Latino, a channel offered throughout Latin and South America, part of the competition for broadcasting market share in fast-growing emerging economies that also provides entertainment for the US Latino market in the United States, about 60 million people, or 18 percent of the population. Latinos represent about half of US population growth since 2000, according to the Pew Research Center. 

Jurek Jablonicky likewise is leaving his mark on the industry. A Honduran producer of Czech heritage on his father’s side, he studied business administration in Boston, cinema studies in Bilbao and global filmmaking in Madrid, Spain. Upon his return to Honduras, he was aghast to discover that Honduras lacked a selection committee for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. He quickly got to work and started a year-long process of accreditation with the Academy. After filling out paperwork and forming the committee, he issued an invitation for national filmmakers to submit their work. Under Academy rules, only the most recent films could be considered and, in total, 10 films were produced during the eligible cycle and only three submissions qualified. After the committee’s review and a blind vote, Morazán won unanimously. The committee’s announcement boosted Morazán’s run in theaters.

Much like the ephemeral dream of a united Central America during the 19^th century, the thrill of the nomination for Morazán was short-lived – the film didn´t make the cut into the nine finalists for best foreign-language film announced by the Academy in December. However, the committee is in place and the road paved for consideration of future films. Jablonicky and audiences throughout Central America anticipate more and better submissions in the years to come.

*J.H. Bográn is a bilingual author of novels, short stories and scripts for television and film.  He was born in Honduras. The son of a journalist, he ironically prefers to write fiction rather than fact. His genre of choice is thrillers, but he likes to throw a twist of romance into the mix. He can be contacted on Facebook or Twitter.

See all submissions for the 2018 Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film.

By Razan Azzarkani*

This month’s Golden Globes were the first awards ceremony held since #MeToo went viral. To commemorate it, celebrities brought social justice activists along as their plus-ones, and many more wore black to show support with the Time’s Up movement, a new Hollywood initiative to purge the industry of predators.

While I’m sure they mean well, repairing the damage is going to take more than wearing black.

After all, Hollywood has collectively spent years perpetuating a rape culture, a sexist culture that did absolutely nothing for women of color, working women, women in the gay and trans communities, women of diverse religious backgrounds, and others. In fact, it often did the absolute opposite.

Elite men accused of abusing women have not only repeatedly gotten away with it — they’ve been praised for their work, given awards, and offered new jobs. Men such as Woody Allen, Casey Affleck, Johnny Depp, Bill Cosby, and Harvey Weinstein. Only recently have some faced some sort of consequences.

But then there was Oprah.

Oprah Winfrey won this year’s Cecil B. Demille award for “outstanding contributions to the world of entertainment.” The first black woman to get the prize, she accepted her award to a standing ovation — and gave a rousing speech that inspired people only as Oprah can.

She talked about the women who aren’t talked about: the domestic workers, the women working for minimum wage, women who have no choice but to be silent about their abuse because they have a family to feed. “For too long, women have not been heard or believed if they dare speak the truth to the power of those men. But their time is up,” she said.

Oprah gave a voice to the voiceless, who don’t have the luxury of being the famous, rich, mostly white women with more power to speak.

No longer will women have to remain silent and endure because “this is what men do” or believe these are experiences that come with being a woman. No longer will women have to be shamed into silence because they aren’t believed, because they’re not rich enough, white enough, pretty enough, whatever enough to be believed.

The solution isn’t, as some are already demanding, for Oprah to run for president. The solution is to listen to women everywhere, and empower female activists in their work.

Women like Tarana Burke, senior director of Girls for Gender Equity and founder of the #MeToo movement, and Ai-jen Poo, director of the National Domestic Workers Alliance.

Women like Aniqa Raihan and Leilani Ganser, young activists I’ve had the pleasure of working closely with. They were brave and courageous enough to publicly fight back against their abusers after receiving little to no help from their university campuses where the assaults took place. Despite stigma, backlash, and struggle, Raihan and Ganser continue to fight every day for justice, for themselves and for women everywhere.

The solution is to support organizations that give voice to women of color and other marginalized groups – organizations such as Know Your IX, National Domestic Workers Alliance, INCITE!, and Mending the Sacred Hope.

Even Hollywood’s getting wise, the New York Times reports. Time’s Up set aside a $13 million legal fund “to help less privileged women — like janitors, nurses, and workers at farms, factories, restaurants, and hotels — protect themselves from sexual misconduct and the fallout from reporting it.”

“Speaking your truth is the most powerful tool we all have,” Oprah said. Until “nobody ever has to say ‘me too’ again.” A new day is indeed on the horizon.

*Razan Azzarkani is the executive assistant at the Center for Global Policy. Distributed by OtherWords.org.

Year 2017, ended with the commitment by Pakistan to acquire deterrence at all spectrums of threat. At the meeting of National Command and Control Authority, Pakistan resolved to policy of Full Spectrum Deterrence, which is in line with the policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence. So, to validate its commitment for countering threats at all spectrums, Pakistan marked the beginning of 2018 with the test of naval missile “Harba”.

On January 3, 2018 Pakistan successfully tested its indigenous naval cruise missile “Harba” from its newly commissioned fast attack vessel “PNS Himmat”. Harba is capable of hitting its targets from surface to surface and is also capable of ground assault. Moreover, it has demonstrated impressive capabilities in accuracy and precision by hitting its target successfully. This particular development by Pakistan navy was not only an attempt to get another weapon in its arsenal but to exhibit its self-sufficiency in high-tech weaponry.

Another significant aspect of this particular development is Pakistan’s indigenously built naval vessel “PNS Himmat” which is commissioned in year 2017. PNS Himmat is equipped with state of the art weaponry, sensors and Harba cruise missiles. It is the second indigenously built fast attack vessel which is capable of high speed, high fire power and enhanced endurance for rapid response at sea. The first indigenously built fast attack vessel by Pakistan was PNS Dehshat, which was inducted in to Pakistan Navy in 2012.

These developments by Pakistan in its naval capabilities were due since long time. Moreover, with interest vested in Gwadar Port and China Pakistan Economic Corridor (COEC) state level initiatives to strengthen Pakistan Navy for security of maritime borders and interests are increasing. However, rapid initiatives to strengthen navy is not entirely for the sake of economic Interests. With India being its neighbor, Pakistan was not fortunate enough to spend a lot on its economic growth. Rather security threats from India engulfed Pakistan’s resources. But, if Pakistan’s security choices are analyzed with pragmatic lens, what other choice was available for Pakistan? None, but to face India with all its ability.

On the other hand, in realm of naval militarization and nuclearization, India is spending huge amount on indigenously building SSBNs and SSNs along with air craft carriers and fleet of naval vessels. This rapid militarization by India is destabilizing strategic equilibrium in Indian Ocean between India and Pakistan.

Almost a year ago, Pakistan didn’t even have a second strike capability because of its unyielding belief in credible minimum deterrence. However, in response to Indian naval capabilities and its ambitiousness, Pakistan went for the option of second strike capability. It was an attempt to strengthen the deterrence and shared risk of destruction to keep India at bay.

But, nuclear tipped naval cruise missile is not end of the ladder in second strike capability rather it is start of the ladder. One of the key elements in making deterrence reliable is complementary conventional force. Decision to build naval missile system by Pakistan for conventional fast attack vessel supports reinforces the logic that Pakistan is not only building second strike capability but also complementing it with conventional force.

Point to focus on is that Pakistan’s decision was based on the logic that Pakistan wants to stop India at all spectrums whether it be conventional or non-conventional. Furthermore, Pakistan does not always rely on nuclear deterrence to stop India, if it’s possible to avoid reliance on only nuclear weapons, conventional means are preferred for regional peace and stability.

In addition, Pakistan’s second-strike capability is based on nuclear tipped cruise missiles Babur 3. Thus, conversion of naval cruise missile into nuclear tipped naval cruise missile is the possibility that Pakistan could rely on in future to deter India. Deployment of nuclear cruise missiles on naval vessels is plausible option for Pakistan to counter Indian threat in Indian Ocean Region. As utilization of other options such as acquisition of SSBN and SSN is a time taking process. These measures are the options Pakistan may rely on till the development of survivable and credible second-strike capability.

However, in all this mayhem for acquisition of Second Strike Capability, the logic of nuclear deterrence should prevail to avoid catastrophe and destruction. As, it is deterrence that instills the fear of unbearable damage and encourages states to not manipulate the shared risks of destruction. If India and Pakistan wants to use the Indian Ocean Region for economic prosperity they need to let deterrence prevail. Lastly, deployment of cannisterized nuclear assets in Indian Ocean Region will require certain amount of confidence building measures by both India and Pakistan to avoid nuclear crisis.

*Ahyousha Khan is a Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad.

The seemingly spontaneous and leaderless protest that erupted in Iran’s second largest city of Mashhad on December 28, 2017 took many by surprise as it spread across several towns and cities within no time. Assuredly the simmering discontent and pent up frustration of the common Iranians that resulted in the protest has roots in socio-economic disparities and lack of personal freedoms in the Islamic Republic. The recent cuts in subsidy on various goods and services and hike in oil prices seem to have acted as the necessary trigger.

There is something intriguing about this protest that the participants not only target the elected government and its policies but the entire religio-political establishment with chants like death to the dictator, referring to Iran’s supreme leader. This reflects the deep resentment of Iranians against the theocratic structure of the government which appears restrictive and dismissive as far as democratic rights are concerned.

Moreover, various opaque cultural and religious entities controlled by conservatives and their heavy toll on budget appear to have further disillusioned common Iranians about the utility of the existing structure of government and power distribution. The reformist and moderate President Hassan Rouhani himself had expressed displeasure with this fact in the past. Hence, the protest has come as a blessing in disguise for him to further his reformist agenda. However, the counter protests that ensued on Friday in support of the theocratic regime and government, makes it confusing and surely a daunting task for reformists to take any drastic measures in this regard.

But this is not the end of it. Indeed, Iran’s regional ventures for dominance in various theatres of war in the conflict ridden Middle East has surely taken a high toll on national exchequer. Iran’s growing military and political clout in countries like Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq has come at a costly price and not many Iranians are happy about the fact that the money which needs to be spent on their development is being diverted towards Iran’s proxies in the region.

Yet another important thing to factor in while considering the causes of the protest are the high expectations of economic benefits attached to the Iran nuclear deal. Although the deal lifted several of the US-led international sanctions in return for crippling limitations imposed on Iran’s controversial nuclear program but it seems that benefits accruing from the deal have not trickled down or have failed to meet the raised up expectations of the people.

Worse enough, the potential abrogation of the nuclear deal by Donald Trump in mid-January, which he has already decertified, provides no ray of hope either. On the contrary, chances are such that Donald Trump may use the government’s crackdown on the protestors as a pretext to kill the nuclear deal. Rest assured, tweets and statements by Iran’s rivals namely the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia in support of the protests are bound to be viewed with suspicion and contempt as their support threatens to discredit the genuine demands of the masses on the streets.

In the case of Donald Trump, doing nothing is better than doing anything and the same goes for his tweets in support of the protest. Thus, the apparently sympathetic statements by Iran’s rivals like Trump clearly backfired as they provided the regime in Iran a pretext to suppress the protest by terming it as an act of enemy and the protestors as agents of the enemy. However, Iran needs to realize that pointing fingers at foreign powers is very unlikely to solve the myriad of socio-economic problems the country faces.

In conclusion, though largely subdued as of now after more than a dozen people being killed and hundreds arrested, the protest in Iran has a lesson for Iran’s ruling elite that Iran will find it hard to sustain its regional dominance at the cost of the lives of common Iranians. Indeed, state security is dependent on human security of its populace and not the other way round. It is time for the ruling elite to reassess their priorities and policies in favor of Iran and Iranians only. Only an internally strong Iran can help achieve any regional and global aspirations that the Islamic Republic might have. Continued denial of fundamental democratic rights to citizens, increasing defence expenditures, and backing proxies for regional dominance may result in irrevocable losses as in the case of dismemberment of Soviet Union.

*Nisar Ahmed Khan, Research Affiliate at Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad

The recently published book Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House is an inside account of the Donald Trump campaign and presidency. One of its more stunning revelations confirms what informed people said about Donald Trump in 2016. He did not think he would win, indeed he had not intended to win. His campaign was a self-promotion extravaganza gone wrong. He went to bed early on election night because he thought the night would belong to Hillary Clinton.

If Trump was shocked he wasn’t alone. The democratic party establishment were certain they would prevail. The corporate media and the wealthy donors who backed Hillary Clinton did so in the belief that her victory was inevitable.

But apparently none of them, Trump included, had a finger on the pulse of white Americans. They knew they wanted this man, the reality show buffoon and huckster. While rich republicans decided whether to support Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, or Chris Christie, the white masses had made their choice, irrespective of elite machinations or the musings of pundits. They chose the man who said he would represent them and their interests and they never took a serious look at anyone else. Even the man who created his own persona of the white, every man president didn’t see how much his campaign resonated with millions of people.

Trump famously said that he could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and not lose any support. He certainly proved himself correct. He got away with first person accounts of sexual harassment and assault, crude language, ableist jokes, the open backing of white supremacists, and racist remarks. “Make America Great Again” was a shrewd campaign theme, not overtly racist yet appealing to the white desire for a time when their rule was complete and unquestioned.

While Trump and everyone else may have been gob smacked his supporters were not. They kept their desire for supremacy to themselves. They didn’t let on with pollsters as they went about the business of wishing for a white president. They knew what few others did. They didn’t care about republican party orthodoxy very much. Tax cuts, deregulation, and interventionist wars were all side issues they went along with in order to support the white people’s party. Whiteness itself was their priority.

From the time that their allegiance switched to the republicans their racism was used to cement voter support. In decades past the plea for “neighborhood schools” was used to mask opposition to desegregation plans. Terms such as “small government” were understood to mean that no money would be allowed to slip into the hands of black people. The panoply of republican orthodoxy was always meant to convey the goal of keeping white people on top and black people under foot.

But Trump didn’t bother with code words. He said Mexican immigrants were rapists and murderers and that keeping them out would be a high priority. He threw a Latino reporter out of a press briefing and claimed that the judge who presided over his Trump University fraud case couldn’t be impartial because he was of Mexican ancestry.

Hillary Clinton and the democrats thought that his awfulness would repel the public. So much so that they neglected get out the vote efforts in key states. They believed that exploiting what would ordinarily be problematic would guarantee an Electoral College win. Yet more than 60 million people witnessed the open racism and vulgarity and fell in love. That must not be forgotten even when Trump may seem to be on the ropes.

It is unwise to think of Trump as being vulnerable at this juncture. Supposed low approval ratings should be taken with high degrees of skepticism. The same people who silently loved him during the campaign haven’t changed. Now he benefits from his legislative successes with the right wing of the ruling classes. The recent tax bill was long sought by republicans. He is delivering for his party and they are unlikely to pursue the impeachment which is presented as the answer to every anti-Trump prayer.

The democrats have failed to formulate a coherent message that would defeat Trump. They are stuck where they started out because they are bought off themselves. So they refuse to make even tepid reforms that would gain them voter support. They hope that people will reject the man who tweets messages against foreign governments, lets his son-in-law run foreign policy, and believes himself to be smarter than he is. It is easy to make fun of someone who calls himself a “stable genius” but that same man won before when expert opinion said that he would not.

The book Fire and Fury won’t sink Donald Trump. Neither will revelations that would damage others. The very thing that makes him so repugnant to half of the country gives him an appeal with the other half. That is the fire and fury that everyone must acknowledge.

By Ken Hannaford-Ricardi

The number of visitors passing through the Afghan Peace Volunteers’ (APVs’) Borderfree Nonviolence Community Center in Kabul is incredible. Each afternoon, nearly sixty high-school-age students attend free classes to prepare them for the rigorous KanKor test, required of every Afghan desiring to attend public university. By 8:00 this morning, women from neighboring districts had begun arriving on foot, by taxi, or on bicycle, bringing hand-sewn duvets which the young APV’s will distribute to the city’s poor. There is no sign on the door; the address is not published; there is no central telephone number. And yet they come.

Almost immediately following lunch this afternoon, a young university student arrived, bringing unexpected news concerning the recent bombing of a Shia cultural center which had killed 45 people and injured many more. Well-dressed in jeans and warm sweater, he told us that three female relatives had been at the center at the time of the blasts. Two had been killed; the other was expected to recover. A fourth victim, the young man’s friend, had also perished.

As always happens when news of this sort arrives, the room went quiet. Each of the young women and men turned aside and wondered, in the words of our guest, “When is my time going to come?”

It has only taken a week, but I am beginning to realize just how intense life in Afghanistan is for each one of its 36 million citizens. Several times a week, in one guise or another, death walks through the gate.

How do Afghans react to the ongoing violence? In talking to young visitors to the Center, the impression is that the noose of fear is tightening. Friends tell us of thinking twice before going out on unnecessary excursions.

The insurgents whose only weapon is violence are clearly gaining sway here, but the Afghan Peace Volunteers are adamant in their knowledge that violence solves nothing. They struggle daily to practice and teach nonviolence, which their charter maintains “is a [personal] value and a way of living, relating, and acting,” a positive force for change in our own lives and in the life of our planet.

The world has moved on from Afghanistan. The ongoing conflict in this small nation has lost our interest. As I was departing from my first visit here, a 15 year-old friend said, “Goodbye, Mr. Ken. You are very brave to come here.” “No,” I replied. “You are the brave one. I can go home. You live here.”

In the borderfree world envisioned by the Afghan Peace Volunteers, we are all citizens of Afghanistan. We cannot let the noose be tightened any further.

For more information about the Afghan Please Volunteers, please visit their website: ourjourneytosmile.com.

For over a week, anti-government demonstrations have emerged across Iran. At this point, protests have been reported in dozens of cities with at least twenty people confirmed dead in sporadic clashes between protesters and law enforcement units. In Tehran, more than 450 people have been detained, and yet, despite the media hype, the unrest does not bear the signs of a revolution.

The origins of the recent protests are scarce, but it is believed to be started on December 28 of last year in Mashhad, which is the second most populous city in Iran. Located in the Northeast of the country, Mashhad is also a political stronghold for the conservative faction. The initial protest in the city was a response to a price hike for poultry products, which surged by nearly 40% in recent days.

Before long, there were complaints about unpaid wages, unlicensed credits, petty corruption, fraudulent bankruptcies, and much more. Later, on that same day, rallies were held in nearby towns and conservative politicians sought to exploit the situation, and encouraged further demonstrations in hopes of hurting the credibility of the moderate faction led by President Rouhani. However, as footage and images of protesters spread on social media apps, the conservatives soon lost control over the situation.

By December 29, anti-government crowds emerged in Tehran, and in other major cities such as Isfahan, Tabriz, Hamadan, and many others. What started out as frustrations over food prices soon included all different types of grievances. In this framework, the motives fueling the demonstrations are sporadic, and there is no unified objective.

For instance, some footages in Mashhad captured chants such as ‘death to Rouhani’, while in Tehran, there were anti-Khamenei chants such as ‘death to the dictator’. In this reference, it should be noted that both figures belong to different political factions, but other slogans that were chanted by protesters opposed Iran’s foreign policy in Syria such as ‘let go of Syria, think of us’.

These sporadic and contradictory chants illustrate that the unrest is neither a movement nor a revolution. Moreover, when compared to the Green Movement of 2009, the current demonstrations are small in size, lack coordination and leadership, as well as organization. However, this does not mean that the grievances of Iranians are illegitimate. Besides the obvious lack of civil rights, the deeper issue facing Iran is the economic dilemma that the public deals with.

Among the problems are the increasing living costs even though inflation has dropped from about 35% in August 2013 when Rouhani came into office to 8% in October 2017. Macroeconomic indicators do not always translate to real-life situations. For example, Iran’s inflation is affected by Washington’s restrictions on trade in dollars, which complicates Tehran’s securement of foreign exchange reserves, but at the same time, Iran heavily relies on the import of food that is procured by U.S dollars.

Due to the restrictions on foreign trade, the Ahmadinejad Administration introduced the subsidy reform plan to channel billions of dollars each year to bolster the industrial sector, as well as to support the lower income classes by stabilizing the average consumer price.

Yet, in spite of this intended effect, the opposite happened. Since the implementation of the reform plan in 2010, living costs have steadily grown, but wages have increased too little to compensate. As a result, the purchasing power of the Iranian public has decreased over the years. Iranians have had less money to spend, which is why fluctuations in food prices is a particularly sensitive issue. Rouhani was legally bound to go through with the subsidy reform plan, but in a twist of irony, the conservatives who introduced the subsidy policy blamed the ruling moderate group for the economic grievances.

Another economic obstruction in Iran is unemployment, and it remains to be a major problem in the larger cities. However, disguised unemployment or underemployment is a more widespread dilemma. The truth is that a large portion of Iranian society is highly educated in fields like science, technology, engineering and mathematics. Yet, there are not enough suitable jobs to meet the qualifications of the workforce, and a lot of this has to do with the continuously changing labor laws of the country. As a result, millions of Iranians are employed in jobs that do not use their skills.

Rising living costs and employment greatly contribute to the frustrations of the Iranian people. In essence, the economic anomaly in Iran where inflation drops and living costs rise due to the subsidy reform plan is somewhat a combination of Venezuela’s dependency on oil and Greece’s tax and subsidy inefficiencies. Unless the subsidy reform plan and the labor laws are revised, living standards in Iran will continue to decline and spark more unrest.

One more factor that contributed to the stagnation of the Iranian economy was the implementation of the JCPOA by the Trump Administration. With the diminishing threat of DAESH, cooperation between Washington and Tehran hit rock bottom over the course of 2017, and Iran returned to its attempts to project power into Iraq and Syria, while the U.S went back to its containment policy. The turn of events led to President Trump’s refusal to certify the JCPOA in October 2017, which stalled potential foreign investment in Iran.

In general, Tehran enjoyed a growth in GDP and government finances for roughly a year and a half before it returned to its old problems. Moreover, in that duration, the macroeconomic indicators did not improve the financial environment of the mainstream population.

Rouhani had promised economic prosperity and although he reduced inflation, stimulated economic growth bolstered the government’s finances and freed up Iranian exports. Rouhani’s economic efforts occurred in an environment where public expectations were disillusioned by the promises of the JCPOA which entered into effect in January 2016. The Iranian public had anticipated significantly greater prosperity, but the financial conditions for the average Iranian have yet to be improved.

Rouhani and his allies have acknowledged the concerns of the protesters, but the president also said that further violent anti-social behavior will not be tolerated. This admission gives the Rouhani Administration a sense of urgency. However, many of the economic issues require an overhaul of the subsidy and labor laws which will require time. Along the way, more protests are bound to emerge. With that being said, no political faction has endorsed the current demonstrations as it does not benefit them. Unless leadership emerges, the current unrests and future protests are unlikely to withstand the security crackdowns over a longer period of time.

As Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes to leave his legacy in Japan’s history and also aims to win a record third term at the helm coming September, it is time to dissect his agenda for the year 2018. It seems Abe has already clearly defined his agenda for the year just begun both in domestic and foreign policy front.

First let us discuss what his domestic policy priorities would be. No doubt, revitalising the country’s economy tops the agenda. With his “Abenomics” on track, Abe’s other domestic challenges would focus on addressing the issue of declining birth rate and aging population, and the related social security issues. Related to this social challenge is the declining labour force as the country prepares to host the Olympics in 2020 and needs a large pool of labour to build the infrastructure needed for this prestigious global event. With domestic supply shrinking, will there be relaxation of immigration laws allowing entry of foreign labour to meet the nation’s needs? Also related to this is the need for nursing services for caring the increasing elderly population, which again involves immigration issues.

But the biggest domestic challenge would be his quest to enact constitutional revision, particularly Article 9 that puts limits on Japan’s defence capabilities. Abe has been a strong votary to do away with this constraining clause as the security environment in the country’s neighbourhood has deteriorated perceptibly in view of the lurking threats from North Korea’s nuclear and missile launches and therefore Abe feels that Japan needs to be prepared appropriately to face with the challenges confronting the nation. Though repeated assurances have been made during summits with the US President Donald Trump that the US stands by its security obligations to defend its ally, there still remains some doubt if the US would come to Japan’s rescue in a real crisis situation. Since North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has been threatening to strike the US if threatened, and with the possession of deliverable nuclear warhead mounted atop a missile, if a real conflict breaks out, Japan could be faced with a situation to fend for itself when the US would struggle to save any of its cities on target of North Korean attack. Such a scenario brings the issue of Japan’s preparedness to focus in coping with such a situation when that occurs, which is why amending Article 9 of the Constitution emerges as important.

Abe, however, knows that the process of amending the constraining Article is too arduous. The process of amending an Article means that the motion has to be passed by two-third majority in both the houses of the Diet and then put for a national referendum as per Article 96 to be passed by a simple majority. Given the strong anti-nuclear sentiment in the country, this seems to be real hurdle, Abe’s biggest dilemma.

It may be noted that the US-drafted Charter has remained untouched since its inception 70 years ago but Abe has resolved to revise the supreme law by 2020 when the nation hosts the Olympics. In fact, constitutional revision was a key election pledge of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party when he suddenly dissolved the Lower House last August and held election next month. The large mandate that Abe received has emboldened him now to pursue his agenda.

This would be a huge gamble if Abe calls for a referendum. It is a prerequisite for a constitutional revision and the path is not easy. If Abe dares call for a referendum and ends up in a fiasco, Abe would have to resign in disgrace. That would be politically devastating for him. Would Abe take such a risk in 2018 itself or wait for a third term in 2021 so that he buys some more time to prepare public opinion in the favour of his move? There are plenty of uncertainties at the moment on the issue. Abe is hopeful as his party members back the idea of holding a referendum in 2018 itself and might take a chance.

There are some other events already scheduled that may come on Abe’s way on the referendum move. The date for Emperor Akihito’s abdication is already fixed in the spring of 2019. The abdication, to be the first retirement of a sitting emperor in 200 years, and enthronement of the new Emperor are huge events for Japan and Abe could be constrained to undertake something controversial that would not gel well with the people rejoicing the transition of the Imperial throne. Abe also needs to keep in mind if he ends up losing the critical two-thirds supermajority in the Upper House needed to call the referendum as elections are slated for summer of 2019. So, any referendum move could be suitable only after the new Emperor’s enthronement and sometime in the fall of 2019 and December that year.

What could be then Abe’s choices? As it appears, he has limited time left to prepare for a referendum. However, if Abe cannot enact amendments in 2018, it might be mighty difficult to undertake such a task before his third term as the LDP president would end in 2021. Public interest might dissipate if referendum move is delayed and Abe therefore needs to seek party consensus as soon as possible to prepare the ground for this to happen. Public mood could swing against him if Abe fails to steer his policy carefully as was the case when his ruling LDP faced a historic rout in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in July 2017.

The opposition is already wary at the Defence Ministry’s decision to acquire cruise missiles with an operational range capable of striking North Korean targets and to introduce the costly Aegis Ashore anti-missile system. The Constitutional Democratic Party and Japanese Communist Party could be expected not to allow Abe a free rein in pursuing his agenda of constitutional amendment and referendum and it all depends on Abe how he deals with the opposition lawmakers to get their support. If ultimately Abe senses that constitutional amendment move are not going to work, his strategy could be to prolong the longevity of his term in office.

*Dr. Rajaram Panda is ICCR India Chair Visiting Professor at Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Reitaku University, JAPAN. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect either that of the ICCR or the Government of India. E-mail: rajaram.panda@gmail.com

That Egypt’s economic well-being is dependent on the Nile has been a geopolitical fact of life since ancient times. Fly over the country, and Egypt’s dependence on the river is starkly illustrated. Amid vast deserts, the river and its cultivated banks appear as a narrow green ribbon snaking its way to the north, where it widens into a delta before reaching the Mediterranean. The vast majority of Egypt’s 94 million people live adjacent to this fertile belt, along which its main cities from Aswan to Cairo to Alexandria cluster. The lower Nile valley and the delta together comprise about 3.5 percent of Egypt’s total area. The remaining 96.5 percent is mostly desert.

The Nile that enters Egypt is fed from two sources. The White Nile, flowing through Sudan, supplies Egypt with 15 percent of its water; the Blue Nile, emanating from Ethiopia, provides 85 percent.

During the colonial era the fact that one of the the Nile’s main tributaries rises in Lake Victoria, which lies in Tanzania and Uganda, and runs through what are now eleven African countries before discharging into the Mediterranean, held little significance.

Scant consideration was given by colonial rulers to the needs or the rights of the African hinterland. Given the priorities of the time, it is scarcely surprising that a 1929 treaty with Britain provided Egypt with a virtual monopoly over the Nile waters with veto rights over all upstream projects. In 1959, under the provisions of this treaty, Egypt signed a deal with Sudan which guaranteed the two countries use of 90 percent of the Nile waters.

But the world was changing fast. The eight other nations that shared the Nile basin at that time viewed Egypt’s historic dominance of the Nile as increasingly untenable. Egypt’s upstream neighbours were all undergoing rapid socio-economic development, and these emerging regional powers began to challenge Egypt’s control of what each regarded as its river.

The affected countries eventually got together, and in the 1999 Nile Basin Initiative put forward a proposal to “achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water resources.”

Ten years of negotiations followed. Finally in 2010, six Nile Basin countries signed the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA): Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Burundi. They were joined in June 2012 by the newly-created South Sudan.

The CFA was meant to replace the 1929 colonial agreement that gave Egypt absolute rights over all the waters of the Nile, and provide a mechanism for cooperation among all ten member countries in managing the Nile basin water resources. However Egypt and Sudan rejected its reallocation of Nile water quotas under the 1959 agreement, and Congo also refused to sign.

This was the moment a further major complication entered the already complex Nile situation.

Back in the late 1950s, the US Bureau of Reclamation had undertaken a survey of the Blue Nile to identify where a dam might be sited to generate hydro-electricity for the region. Forty years later, in 2009, the Ethiopian government suddenly decided that the time was ripe to press ahead with the project. The driving force was former prime minister Meles Zenawi, who had run the country for more than two decades and was obsessed with Ethiopia’s rebirth.

By November 2010 a design for the dam had been drawn up. On 30 March 2011 the project was made public. Two days later, on 2 April, Zenawi laid the dam’s foundation stone. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (or GERD), will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa. Almost incredibly, once constructed the reservoir is estimated to take from 5 to 15 years to fill with water.

In August 2017, as construction on the dam reached 60 percent completion, tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia began to rise. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said the Nile was “a matter of life and death” for his country and that “no one can touch Egypt’s share of the water”. He demanded that Ethiopia cease construction on the dam as a precondition to negotiations. Ethiopia retorted that the dam was a matter of life and death for it, too, since it was a vital component in its plans for economic development.

In an attempt to resolve differences, discussions were arranged between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia to consider how best to manage the impact of GERD. In November 2017 the talks broke down. On December 26, Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian foreign minister, flew to Addis Ababa to emphasise Egypt’s concerns.

At the heart of the dispute lies Egypt’s fear that, once the dam is built, and especially during the initial phase when the reservoir is being filled, the country will receive less than the annual 55.5 billion cubic metres of water it says is the minimum it needs. With a surging population that President Sisi has termed “a threat to national development”, Egypt will be requiring more, not less, fresh water over the next decade.

Although most of Egypt’s water comes from the Blue Nile, on which the dam is being built, Ethiopia is adamant that, once the reservoir has been filled, GERD will not adversely affect downstream countries. At the same time it refuses to acknowledge Cairo’s right to 55.5 billion cubic metres of water every year, since this emanates from the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan to which Ethiopia was not a signatory.

Ethiopia is due to start testing the first two turbines shortly, with construction of the dam due for completion by the end of the year. But Egypt. Sudan and Ethiopia have yet to overcome their mistrust of each other and agree mechanisms to contain the impact on downstream countries, both during the filling period and once the dam comes into operation. They need to start co-operating soon.

The industrial policy of Uttarakhand since its inception have endeavored to ensure fast, stable and sustainable industrial development in the state. The revival and growth of traditional industries with the objective of economic growth of local mountainous and hill areas was the primary target of industrial policy of the state.

There are many factors that have contributed to the slow economic growth of Uttarakhand. Slow industrial growth is among them as the major factor that have contributed a lot. However, the geographical features and agro-economic conditions of the state is such that it is most suitable for development of agro-processing units that can have profound impact to enhance economic growth of the state.

Potential

The state of Uttarakhand is observed with large variation in agro-climate which is suitable for cultivation of variety of crops. The diverse agro-climatic conditions of the state not only provide a unique advantage but also a competitive edge over other states in production of vegetables and fruits during off season. Around 23 percent of gross cropped area of the state has been used to cultivate vegetables, fruits, and other crops.

There is diversity in crop rotation and agronomic practices which depends upon practices adopted in different zones due to diversity in climatic conditions. Sugarcane and food grain dominant the cropping pattern in tropical zone, whereas wheat and paddy dominant the cropping pattern in the sub-tropical zone. In the month of March paddy is sown where as it is harvested in September. Normally, the sowing season of wheat is the October and harvesting season is May.

Post harvesting of wheat is followed by sowing of pure crops or mixed crops of mandua, pulses or other crops. Fruit crops such as peach, pear and khumani are cultivated in the land unsuitable for cultivation of sugarcane and food grain. Horticultural crops, floriculture crops, medicinal, aromatic plants and off-season vegetables are observed to be cultivated in Uttarakhand largely. Kharif crop cultivation which needs very cold climate is observed in temperate zone. Thus, in line with this it can be observed from cropping pattern of Uttarakhand that adequate amounts of raw materials are available to run agro-processing units in the state.

Initiatives to establish small and medium size agro parks, fruits and vegetable based wineries, agri-export zone for agro based export, packaging industry, post-harvest management infrastructure, high quality horticulture farms, and post-harvest management infrastructure will certainly ensure sustainable running and management of agro-processing units in the state.

Challenges

The challenges that the state faces in agro-processing sector are enormous and reforms at policy level must be adopted to address these challenges. Some of the major challenges given below must not be overlooked before implementing any policies pertaining to promotion of agro-processing units in the state.

1. Logistics, supply chains, storage and processing facilities
2. Transport and communication in hill areas
3. Inadequate no of packaging industry
4. Inadequate irrigation infrastructure for agriculture
5. Inadequate retail outlet for sale
6. Inadequate export processing zones and export houses

Strengths

Uttarakhand with a relatively non-polluted atmosphere and blessed with rare diversity of flora and fauna have opportunity to get raw materials not only from agricultural sector but also from forest sector, some of the examples of which are rare species of aromatic and medicinal plants.

The state has almost a peaceful environment that can facilitate in sustainable industrial development. The most important advantage is that the national capital territory from Uttarakhand is only 5 to 8 hours away by train and only 35 minutes away by air.

Policy Targets

With these potentials, challenges and strengths in hand there is a need for sustainable agro-processing business in Uttarakhand state. The success of sustainable agro-processing business rests upon many policy targets to meet, the major targets among them are:

1. To make Uttarakhand a world class agro-processing business hub.
2. To address the challenges, involve with agro-processing business associated at various stages.
3. To maintain sustainable agro-processing business while preserving the Himalayan ecosystems and biodiversity.
4. To generate sufficient employment opportunities for inhabitants of Uttarakhand with sustainable agro-processing business.

Conclusion and Policy Implications

There are ample opportunities in the state for agro-processing business so far as the availability of agricultural raw materials and forest products are concerned. However, these opportunities to promote agro-processing business are not free from challenges such as logistics, supply chains, storage and processing facilities; transport and communication in hill areas; inadequate no of packaging industry; inadequate irrigation infrastructure for agriculture; inadequate retail outlet for sale and inadequate export processing zones and export houses.

Thus in front of us there are many policy targets, the major targets among them are to make Uttarakhand a world class agro-processing business hub; to address the challenges, involve with agro-processing business associated at various stages; to maintain sustainable agro-processing business while preserving the Himalayan ecosystems and biodiversity; and to generate sufficient employment opportunities for inhabitants of Uttarakhand with sustainable agro-processing business. In order to meet these policy targets there is a need for academic and policy research with support from policy think tanks and public authorities to prepare a framework and formulate holistic and integrated approach for sustainable development of agro-processing sector in the state.

*Dr. Narendra N. Dalei, Assistant Professor (Sr. Scale), Department of Economics, School of Business, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun (India)

By Arman Navasardyan, Ph.D

On December 6 Trump came up with a sensational program speech that became one of the most significant political events of the passing year. He stated that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and the USA is moving its embassy there.

Trump’s assurances that the decision will bring peace to the 70-year-glittering Israeli-Palestinian confrontation and that Jerusalem will increasingly prosper as the democratic center of three religions has caused a genuine storm throughout the region.

The UN Security Council special session, with just one vote for, voted against that decision. Foreign Ministers of the Arab League States (ALS) assembled in Cairo demanding Israel to liberate the lands occupied from Palestinians and Arabs in 1967. The resolution, however, was snippy. Arabs proved once more to be unable to act jointly under a force majeure conditions.

Besides, the situation has changed. Vast majority of Palestinians don’t want to fight and suffice with simply crowded demonstrations, setting tires and Trump’s pictures to fire. As to the Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas’s accusations addressed to Trump that “he opened gates of hell” and other threats, they are nothing more than rhetoric aphorisms.

The thing is that the militant Palestinian group Hamas is losing its sponsors. Saudi Arabia, for instance, is not just unwilling to fight Israel, moreover, it is reconciling with the latter against Iran. Egypt is not pleased with the third intifada, either. However, the biggest loss for Hamas is abstraction by Iran. Tehran’s cooling attitude towards the movement is explained by the latter’s flirt with Iran’s enemy Gulf countries and, namely, with Riyadh. The Sassanids never forget such things and never do they forgive.

As to Europe, it doesn’t welcome military actions of Hamas, either. France and other countries did criticize Trump’s decision, however, they are sick and tired of terror acts so that they will defend only Palestinians’ soft power actions, and that’s all.

On the background of these political developments, as to be expected, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appears on the stage. He appears to play a diplomatic farce, behind which his pink ambitions are outlined: to become the leader of the Great Middle East. Or perhaps a new caliph and then the leader of the third world? Who knows?

Erdoğan is trying to fasten Russia to his plans. (When Erdoğan lavishes “спасибо” (thanks) in Putin’s address and boasts his friendship, Yerevan of the 1960s come to one’s mind when during street fights the parties invited people with “certain authority” to make a psychological influence on the rivals and to win in case of a fight. That practice was called “to get guys”.)

Making a speech in Istanbul, at the special summit meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) formed at his initiative, Erdoğan puts Israel and the USA to pillroy for “violating international law”, pressing and terrorizing the Palestinian people. Then Erdoğan demands Jerusalem to be granted the status of Palestine’s capital, absolutely “forgetting” that it is actually a violation of international law and UN resolutions.

Two days later, moving further forward he states, “We have already declared East Jerusalem the capital of Palestine.” “… Soon Turkey is going to open its embassy in Jerusalem.” This was the last nail hammered by Ankara into the coffin of its relations with Israel.

And when during the Istanbul Endspiel Erdoğan snaps his fingers at Washington he reminds of the famous little character from Krylov’s fable who “raises a great rumpus” at the elephant. (I. A. Krylov, Elephant and Pug.)

Indeed, some really interesting scenes were played in Istanbul where Aliyev’s diplomatic salto mortale stands out when, being one of Israel’s closest partners, he appeared in the vanguard of those denouncing the latter. (I would give much just miraculously to be present at Netanyahu-Aliyev encounter and to see the latter’s expression at that moment.)

… Coming back to Trump’s statement, it should be noted that some experts assume his decision was the result of lack of the President’s political experience, his impulsive and indiscriminate temperament which borders on adventurism, emotional outbursts and affection, and so on.

Not contesting such an analysis of the American President’s moral features, it should be noted that the comments on his decision are simplistic and encompass neither deep political motives of the issue at stake, nor core strategic aspects of American diplomacy.

Donald Trump’s decision is actually a well-balanced program deliberated over and approved by Washington brain centers.

Let us try to view the issue from two positions.

Internal politics

After the presidential elections US President’s position and rating began to fall catastrophically because of objective and subjective reasons threatening with an impeachment and making him take up urgent steps.

Thus, the main target of Trump’s “Jerusalem game” was aimed at pleasing the large Orthodox Jewish-American Republican electorate for whom seeing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is an “idée fixe”, an absolute religious category. Trump had promised them to make that “donation” and kept his promise which found a positive response in various layers of the American society. (Whenever the country’s president keeps a pre-election promise is highly appreciated.)

Foreign politics

In this field Trump is also trying to keep his pre-electoral promise: “America first”. It must be noted that by the end of the Syrian Odyssey Russia, headed by Putin, assumes a dominant role. Meanwhile Washington is losing its position and influence in the Arab world. It is not fond of the behavior of the alliance Russia-Turkey-Iran so much that the White House seems even not to notice certain serious disagreements within this alliance. It is most important under these conditions to push Moscow aside.

Having that in mind Trump visited Saudi Arabia in May and, to the music of “al-arda (traditional male-only) sword dance”, created a “mini” or “Arabic” NATO aimed against Iran. That didn’t work. Currently a new game is being played on the big Middle East chess board planned by the USA, with new pieces, new combinations. Trump’s December statement was preceded by the royal coup according to the scenario of his son-in-law and advisor Kushner, developed at Israeli think-tanks and Mossad bunkers. Result? A new, incredible union is born that analysts couldn’t even imagine in the pre-Trump period. It is the Saudi Arabia-Israel military-political alliance whose aim is to augment geopolitical position of Washington and Israel and to realize their plans, namely struggle against Iran in the Middle East. Time will show how successful it is.

Conclusion

• Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and to move the embassy there has insulated new additional tensions throughout the region thus creating a new situation in global processes and promoting reorganization of balance of power.
• Unless, owing to some or other circumstances and variations in the political situation, the US relinquishes the idea to move its embassy to Jerusalem other states will follow the suit in due time. That scenario is not very likely in case of Arab countries. Only Jordan and Egypt have diplomatic relations with Israel, but even they will abstain until the issue is resolved.
• Trump’s decision has driven Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations into a deadlock, which will hardly be broken shortly.
• The first reaction of Arab countries in response to Washington’s move didn’t receive a wide coverage and development, didn’t turn into a mass anti-American campaign, and didn’t become a Bickford’s cord connecting countries. So, it is likely that the volatile situation will gradually calm down. However, there is high probability of terror acts in all core countries, specifically after bringing large-scale military actions in Syria to an end, although the key radical Islamist force – Daesh – has notably weakened.
• Israel-Iran confrontation will not turn into a war affair. But clashes between the Saudi Arabia-Israel alliance and Hezbollah shouldn’t be discounted that can be disastrous for Lebanon and local Armenian community.
• The alterations in the situation around Israel can’t become an obstacle in the process of regulating and developing Armenian-Israeli relations begun earlier this year (perhaps at the approval of Moscow and Washington).
• On the contrary, within defining the status of Jerusalem and its borders, it is vital to take speedy and urgent measures at the level of the RA Government, the MFA, worldwide Diaspora (if possible, also the Pope) to secure the physical safety of our fellow countrymen in Israel, as well as inviolability of the Armenian Quarter in Jerusalem founded in the first century, churches and other historical-cultural treasures.
• Azerbaijan’s active involvement in the anti-Israeli policy should be broadly manipulated through all pan-Armenian state and non-state means to drive a wedge in the Azerbaijani-Israeli relations and to discredit the Azerbaijani administration throughout the Christian world.
• Recently Israeli parties Yesh Atid and Meretz are going to submit to Knesset the proposal to recognize the Armenian Genocide. The circle of this process can widen. Nevertheless, at this point it would be unwise to condition regulation of Armenian-Israeli relations by the recognition of the Genocide. Besides, we should be weary that Israel doesn’t make it into ”a bargaining chip” in its relations with Turkey.
• Exchange of embassies is the main element of normalizing relations. It is possible that the Israeli side might put forward before Yerevan a condition – to open the embassy in Jerusalem; in that case the Armenian side could offer to open the embassy of Israel residing in Yerevan. This is a common practice in diplomatic relations and can’t hamper the activities of an embassy, unless, of course, it is staffed with professional diplomats.
• The RA voted in favor of the UN resolution condemning the US decision at the General Assembly. We believe it would have been preferable for Armenia to abstain or not to take part in the vote for the following reasons: a) the position of the Armenian side will not promote any progress in the Armenian-Israeli relations in stagnation for more than quarter of a century; b) rejection of the decision doesn’t guarantee that from now on Arab-Muslim countries will change their anti-Armenian position in international relations, taking into account the decisive role played in their policy by Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan plus Saudi Arabia that have not recognized Armenia so far; c) the noticeable progress in the Armenian-American relations under current Washington administration falls under doubt; d) it seems improbable that the Armenian issues in Jerusalem will find a positive, for us, solution within the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations as they have come to a stalemate amid current political chaos.

As to the UN General Assembly resolutions, they are not legally binding, thus often remain a voice crying in the wilderness.

About the author:
*Arman Navasardyan, PhD, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy

(RFE/RL) — Russian President Vladimir Putin alleged that anticorruption crusader Aleksei Navalny was being supported by the United States in his election bid.

Putin made the comments, without providing evidence, on January 11 during a televised meeting with top editors and executives from several Russian media outlets.

Navalny, a charismatic lawyer who has built a national following on his campaign to root out government corruption, has been barred by election officials from standing in the March 18 presidential vote, due to a suspended prison sentence. He and his supporters say the prosecution was trumped up and politically motivated.

The United States and European Union condemned the decision to keep Navalny out of the race.

Asked about U.S. criticism of the decision, and allegations that Russia had meddled in U.S. elections, Putin asserted it was the United States who was meddling in Russian affairs. He also avoided even mentioning Navalny by name, something he has sidestepped for months now.

“The individual you mentioned, he is not the only one who hasn’t been allowed [to run]. For some reason they aren’t talking about the other people,” Putin said.

“This obviously shows the preferences of the U.S. administration when it comes to who they want to lead other countries, who they want to move forward in Russian politics, and who they’d like to see in the country’s leadership.”

Putin is widely expected to win another six-year term.

US President Donald Trump reportedly asked why so many people from “s***hole countries” like El Salvador, Haiti and specific African nations come to the US. The resulting outrage could wreck bipartisan immigration reform.

Trump reportedly became furious during a meeting at the White House Thursday when Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Dick Durbin (D-Illinois) proposed restoring protections for immigrants from Haiti, El Salvador and some African countries as part of a bipartisan immigration deal, according to the Washington Post.

The group of senators reportedly agreed to cut the visa lottery program by 50 percent and restore Temporary Protected Status to immigrants from countries facing natural disasters or civil strife.

“Why are we having all these people from s***hole countries come here?” Trump said, according to the Post. He reportedly suggested the US should take in more immigrants from countries like Norway instead.

Many social media users immediately condemned Trump’s comments as racist, including several Democratic lawmakers.

Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) went on MSNBC to say Trump’s comments “smack of blatant racism – odious and insidious racism masquerading poorly as immigration policy.”

“He does not speak for me as an American,” Blumenthal added.

Rep. Mia Love (D-Utah), who was born to Haitian parents, said Trump’s comments were “unkind, divisive, elitist and fly in the face of our nation’s values.”

“My parents came from one of those countries, took an oath of allegiance to it, and took on the responsibilities of everything that being a citizen comes with,” Love said in a statement.

The Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-Louisiana) said Trump’s comments were “further proof that his Make America Great Again agenda is really a Make America White Again agenda.”

Author Philip Mudd, ex-deputy director of the CIA’s Counter-terrorist Center and the FBI’s National Security Branch, went on CNN Thursday to denounce Trump’s remarks as racist, calling himself a “proud s***holer.”

A number of celebrities branded Trump “President s***hole,” or some variation on this theme.

A wide-ranging trade complaint has been filed by Canada against the US, accusing it of breaking international trade rules. The US, which has threatened to scrap trade deals between the two, has called the move “ill-advised.”

Canada’s complaint comes as its efforts continue to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The 32-page complaint challenges Washington’s use of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Ottawa has cited around 200 examples of alleged US wrongdoing, almost all of them concerning other trading partners too, such as China, India, Brazil and the European Union.

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said the legal action was in response to “unfair and unwarranted” US duties against Canada’s softwood lumber producers, and is part of a “broader litigation” to defend its forestry jobs.

“We continue to engage our American counterparts to encourage them to come to a durable negotiated agreement on softwood lumber,” Freeland told Reuters.

The US called the claims “unfounded,” with its Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer saying: “Canada’s new request for consultations at the WTO is a broad and ill-advised attack on the US trade remedies system.”

“Even if Canada succeeded on these groundless claims, other countries would primarily benefit, not Canada,” he added, suggesting also that “Canada’s complaint is bad for Canada.”

Under WTO rules, the United States has 60 days to try to settle the complaint. Otherwise Canada, which sends 75 percent of its goods exports to the US, could ask the trade organization to adjudicate.

Trade relations between the countries have experienced some stumbling points as the sides are deadlocked in unsuccessful negotiations over NAFTA, the trade pact signed by the US, Canada, and Mexico in 1994 and based on the fundamental principle of tariff-elimination across North America.

NAFTA has been heavily criticized by Trump, who called it the “worst deal in US history” and warned that he might scrap it.

According to Trump, the deal, which provides for tax-free trade between the three countries, is taking vehicle plants and jobs away from the US.

Washington aims to decrease its trade deficit and to boost market access for US manufacturing, agriculture, and services in Canada and Mexico.

Protests in Tunisia have expanded to major cities such as Beja, Nabeul, Qebily, Bizerte and Sidi Bouzid, after initially breaking out in a number of poor neighborhoods in the capital, and in Manouba, Gafsa and Kasserine.

Security forces have reportedly arrested more than 300 people in the protests, according to the Guardian, which were triggered by unemployment and rising prices of basic goods.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, Belhassen al-Waslati, said military forces were deployed in a number of states “to secure the authorities’ headquarters and public facilities, and protect them from the dangers of looting, theft and sabotage.”

He said the authorities and security and military leaders were coordinating measures taken in response to the protests.

The deteriorating security situation over the past two days led to the exchange of accusations between the political parties over the responsibility for the protests. The ruling coalition, led by the Nidaa Party and Nahda Movement, called for a national conference to discuss all economic and social issues, with the participation of the country’s political and civil movements.

Despite the escalating situation, government sources denied adopting a decision to impose a curfew at night, but did not rule it out in the event of continued night protests, theft, looting and vandalism, which have targeted a number of public and private facilities.

The current three-month state of emergency, which ends on Feb. 10, allows for a series of extraordinary measures, such as banning rallies, protests and publications.

Opposition parties, led by the Popular Front, have tried to refute the charge of leading night protests, stressing that it had only called for a peaceful protest against the 2018 finance law.

Ammar Amroussieh, a leader of the Popular Front coalition, said that his movement had already warned the ruling coalition of the danger of the 2018 Finance Act, explaining that the new budget would produce social unrest and increase poverty and marginalization.

Meanwhile, Khalifa al-Shaibani, a spokesman for the Ministry of the Interior, revealed that recent confrontations have resulted in the arrest of over 230 people involved in looting, burning, theft, damage to property and storming of security headquarters.

He added that clashes between the security forces and the protesters have led to the injury of 49 members of the security forces, nine in the ranks of the National Guard, and damaged 45 security vehicles belonging to the police units, and 12 cars belonging to the National Guard.

Original article

A teacher in Indonesia has been arrested on suspicion of sexually abusing dozens of young boys, officials have said.

Wawan Sutiono, 49, was arrested on Jan. 6 in Tangerang, a town 35 kilometers west of the capital Jakarta.

The part-time Islam religion teacher is accused of molesting at least 41 boys aged between 6-15 years of age over a nine-month period, police said.

The alleged crimes were committed between April and December last year.

The arrest comes after police received a complaint by one of the alleged victims’ parents on Dec 20, 2017.

It was not clear why the police too three weeks to arrest the suspect.

If found guilty, Sutiono could face up to 15 years in prison and chemical castration under a recently introduced law to deal with convicted sex offenders.

Ulfa, 41, the mother of one of the alleged victims said Sutiono would often see her son outside of school and that she had no idea what was going on until her son told her about the alleged abuse.

“My son doesn’t want to go to school now because he feels afraid of other teachers and even his friends,” she told ucanews.com.

Franciscan Father Vincentius Darmian Mbula, an educator, said the case illustrates the need for parents and schools to pay serious attention to the threat of child sexual abuse.

“Parents, families and teachers have a role to play in educating children so that the do not fall victims to pedophiles,” the priest said.

In a similar case in 2014, a man was found to have sexually abused 116 children in Sukabumi, West Java.

According to government figures some 1,424 children were sexually abused last year.

By Mohammed Al-Kinani and Nada Hameed

Saudi football clubs are appealing directly to female fans for support through ad campaigns and social media as women are allowed into stadiums for the first time on Friday.

The official Twitter account for Al-Ittihad directed a tweet toward the club’s female fans on Tuesday. It said that women were powerful agents in the success of the team, just like their male counterparts.

Two weeks ago, a campaign was launched for fans to show their support for their favorite teams through SMS texts. Al-Ittihad’s tweet is riding on the hype surrounding women attending the club’s match.

Al-Ittihad’s offical tweet generated a massive response from the team’s lovers and haters alike. Elaaf tweeted: “We’re finally being addressed as a part of Ittihad’s fanclub.”

Many couldn’t believe they were finally being noticed. One Twitter user said: “I never thought I’d live to see such a tweet, we’re all here for you.”

Others such as Twitter user Shikha provided proof of their contribution by posting photos of the sent text, while many women declared they were now switching support to

Al-Ittihad for being the first to address them as an audience.

One die-hard fan tweeted: “I will attend the classico match and I’ll even pay for tickets for other girls attending.”

Dedicated Al-Ittihad female fans are preparing to attend the club’s first match of the year against Al-Hilal on Jan. 13, in Riyadh’s King Fahd International Stadium. Al-Ahli fans will be called on to show up for a Jeddah match against the visiting Al-Batin team on Friday in the King Abdullah Sports City stadium.

The General Sports Authority (GSA) revealed the seating plan for the Riyadh match. Inside the stadium, women will occupy the northern area through gates two, three and four, and the southern area through gates 40, 41 and 42. They are are expected to fill 7,500 seats.

Head of the Saudi Federation for Sports Media, Raja Al-Sulami, told Arab News that they have made the stadium ready to receive women. He added: “In cooperation with the Saudi Federation for Community Sports, we have made all necessary arrangements to receive them in an atmosphere that respects their privacy.” He added that there are 14,000 seats at the Jeddah’s “Shining Jewel” stadium ready for the occasion.

The GSA also announced a new category for VVIPs with a single ticket costing SR10,000 ($2,666) in all Saudi professional league matches, beginning with Friday’s round 17 match between Al-Ahli and Al-Batin. The tweet was met with disbelief from both Al-Ittihad and Al-Hilal fans, who called the price “outrageous.”

Fahad Al-Zahrani, an Al-Ahli club board member and director of the club’s media center, told Arab News that the attendance of the president of the Saudi Federation for Community Sports, Princess Reema bint Bandar bin Sultan, emphasized the importance of the event.

“Through our Twitter page, we have also posted some instructions for entering the stadium. We also gave women that are going to attend the match some information about the stadium facilities, such as bathrooms, praying zones and even medical clinics that they can visit in cases they need to,” Al-Zahrani said.

Many Saudi women celebrities reacted to the news of the weekend matches positively.
Shoura Council member and founder of the Jeddah United basketball team Lina Almaeena told Arab News: “I’m ecstatic! It’s a historical moment in Saudi for women.

It’s a huge alternative for them to go to the stadium together and enjoy their time, other than going to malls or dining out. It’ll have an impact on many levels, socially, economically and on a family level.”

Almaeena is thrilled and will attend the other football match that will be held on Friday between Al-Ahli and Al-Batin in Jeddah.

Hadeel Al-Shumrani, the first Saudi Zumba trainer and also an actress, is a big football fan. “For me Al-Ittihad is not just a club it is more than that, as you can see in most of the matches how the spirit of the fans and how they encourage their team,” she told Arab News.

“I would absolutely attend the game with my friends,” she added. “I believe such activities are very useful for women to enrich our sports knowledge and it also grows positive competition spirit, hopefully we will be able to participate in games in the coming years.”

Diehard female national football fans are also looking forward to the big day.

“I never thought I’d ever be able to attend a football match in Saudi! I will be at the soccer match to support my team! Hilal all the way!” 19-year-old Sara Abdul-Aziz said.

The excitement and enthusiasm is contagious. For decades, female fans would have to watch games on TV screens; now they have a chance to see the action live.

Rania bin Yassin, a mother of four, told Arab News: “I’d love to attend with my brothers. They always go the matches together, but this time, I will attend with them! It’s definitely a new experience that I’m looking forward to!”

Women are gearing up with face paint and team shirts to show their support and enthusiasm. Dedicated female soccer fans have previously traveled abroad to watch the matches and cheer their teams on.

Muna AbuSulayman, a Saudi presenter and the first Saudi broadcaster to appear on Arab satellite channels, and co-host of one of MBC’s most popular social programs, Kalam Nawaem, told Arab News: “I actually don’t care about football at all. However, I think it is an overdue decision that will help girls to participate in the ecosystem of sports.”

She added, “I love reading about how the stadiums are working hard to accommodate women from bathrooms to eating areas.”

Lama Al-Sulaiman, who was elected deputy chairwoman of the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry in December 2009, becoming the first female to hold such a post in Saudi history, told Arab News: “I am not one of the football fans, but I am happy with this event and this good initiative. I also think that the most important thing that will result from the attendance of matches is bonding between family members, providing a modern environment in which the inhabitants of the city meet.”

She added, “The sense of enthusiasm and participation of sports and leisure will reflect on respecting the systems of events and dealing with people, will also increase confidence and good faith in the behavior of our youth.”

Yomn Luqman, a sports journalist who declined to mention which club is her favorite, told Arab News: “As this game will be the first match with women attendees after the historical decision of the sports authority, I believe it will have a huge number of attendees and I received many calls from football fans asking about what to wear and how to enter the stadium.”

She added: “These days the weather is very beautiful in the Kingdom, which will help people to enjoy it more. It is worth mentioning that women now really care to attend the match more than they care for which club they want to win.”

The first opportunity for Saudi female football fans to attend a football match was in 2015 in London during the Saudi Super Cup final. That was the first appearance of Saudi women in a football stadium attending a match between two Saudi clubs.
Nahed Fahad, who attended the match, said: “It was fantastic and exciting. The guys were well behaved and there were no crazy antics, like many portray. I went with my daughter and we had a good time in London, and I look forward to going with her again in Riyadh.”

International matches that feature the Saudi national squad have always had female fans. However, sports, and especially football, have been viewed as a masculine activity.

Playing any kind of sport used to be difficult for women in Saudi Arabia, since public female practice of physical sports was a socially controversial issue. Before the Ministry of Education announced in July 2017 that girls in public schools would receive physical education by the start of the 2017-2018 academic year, girls did not have access to physical education, except in some private schools.

In 2016, the Saudi Cabinet appointed Princess Reema as undersecretary for the women’s section of the General Authority for Sports, becoming the first woman to hold a government sports position in the Kingdom.

— With input from Noor Nugali, Aseel Bashraheel & Ruba Obaid.