A genome-wide study of the people of Ireland reveals a previously hidden genetic landscape, shaped through geography and historical migrations. Ross Byrne and Russell McLaughlin of Trinity College Dublin in Ireland reported their findings in PLOS Genetics.

In the 10,000 years that people have continuously inhabited the Emerald Isle, they have established distinct cultural and geographic regions. Previous studies, however, had found no clear genetic groups within the Irish population.

In the current study, researchers took a more detailed look at genetic diversity across the islands. They analyzed genetic variation across almost 1,000 Irish genomes and over 6,000 genomes from Britain and mainland Europe. The study revealed 23 distinct Irish genetic clusters, separated by geography. The clusters are most distinct in western Ireland, but less pronounced in the east, where historical migrations have erased the genetic divisions.

When the researchers took into account genetic contributions from people with British ancestry, a clear trend arose, showing input from Britain dropping off in populations to the west. The researchers also detected genetic input from Europe and estimated the timing of the historical migrations of the Norse-Vikings and the Anglo-Normans to Ireland, yielding dates that were consistent with historical records.

The study paints a new and more complex picture of the genetic landscape of Ireland, and demonstrates the signatures that historical migrations have left on the modern Irish genome. The findings also show that a distinct genetic structure can exist, even within small, isolated populations. The researchers suggest that this newly revealed structure should be taken into account in future studies that use the Irish population to identify the genetics underlying various traits and diseases.

On the impact of the study, Ross P. Byrne said, “This subtle genetic structure within such a small country has implications for medical genetic association studies. As it stands current corrections for population structure in study designs may not adequately account for this within country variation, which may potentially lead to false positive results emerging. We feel this will be particularly important in the analysis of rare variants as these are expected to be less uniformly distributed throughout a country. We intend to explore this further and identify if this structure should be accounted for in corrections.

Russell McLaughlin added that,: “The long and complex history of population dynamics in Ireland has left an indelible mark on the genomes of modern inhabitants of the island. We have shown that, using only genetic data, we can accurately reconstruct elements of this past and demonstrate a striking correlation between geographical provenance and genetic affinity. Understanding this fine-grained population structure is crucially important for ongoing and future studies of rare genetic variation in health and disease.”

A Tunisian blogger who recently won election to parliament is facing two military court trials for criticizing the army and its top brass on social media, Human Rights Watch said.

The prosecutor filed the cases against Yassine Ayari, after his election victory as an independent candidate, in December 2017. Ayari was prosecuted twice in military courts, in 2015 and 2016, for insulting the military and spent four and-a-half months in prison.

“Time and again, the military prosecutor has gone after Yassine Ayari for his nonviolent criticism of the army,” said Amna Guellali, Tunisia director at Human Rights Watch. “Seven years after the ouster of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisian authorities should repeal all laws that criminalize defamation of state institutions or officials and end military court jurisdiction over civilians.”

Ayari won a parliamentary seat by-election in December to replace a member who represents Tunisians who live in Germany. When he heard informally of new cases being filed against him, Ayari, who lives in France, sent a lawyer, Malek Ben Amor, to make inquiries. On January 8, he discovered by going to the Military Court of First Instance in Tunis that Ayari faced two pending cases, including one scheduled to be heard that day, Ben Amor told Human Rights Watch. The other case opened on January 2 and was postponed to March 6.

Ayari said that he had received no formal notification of either case or a summons to appear. Ben Amor said he attended the January 8 session, at which the trial judge postponed the case until March 26.

Ben Amor said that in the case that opened on January 2, the lawyers were able to see only the accusations, but not review the case file or the basis for the charges. He said the charges relate to article 91 of the code of military justice, which criminalizes insulting the military and article 67 of the penal code criminalizing “offending the president of the republic.”

Human Rights Watch reviewed the court files of the case that opened January 8. A letter dated January 4 from the prosecutor’s office of the First Instance Military Court to the military attorney general states that the prosecutor decided to charge Ayari under article 91 of the military code. That article punishes with up to three years in prison anyone who “commits … outrages against the flag or the army, offenses against the dignity, reputation or morale of the army, or acts to undermine military discipline, obedience and due respect to superiors or criticizes the action of military hierarchy or the military officers, offending their dignity.”

The same day, the prosecutor issued an arrest and detention order against Ayari. The file contains a screenshot of a February 27, 2017, Facebook post as a basis for the charges. The post, which Human Rights Watch reviewed, comments on the appointment of the Brig. Gen. Ismail Fathalli, a military commander, as chief of staff for the land forces. In the post, Ayari alludes to his own military court trial in 2015 and writes, “Fathalli at that time declared before the military court that my writings undermined his morale and the morale of the army. Since he is such a sensitive man, he might die of happiness now that he has been promoted to such a position.”

On March 2, 2015, the military appeals court sentenced Ayari to six months in prison under article 91 for insulting the military high command in a Facebook post. In that case, he was initially convicted in absentia and sentenced to three years in prison, on November 18, 2014, while he was still in France, then received a one-year sentence when retried in person on January 8, 2015. Ayari served four and-a-half months in prison and was released on April 16, 2015.

Ayari left Tunisia in July 2015 after learning that the military court had opened a new investigation against him for “high treason,” a capital offense under article 61 of the penal code. On April 29, 2016, an investigative judge of the First Instance military court dropped the case.

Prosecutions for defaming the army or other state institutions are incompatible with Tunisia’s obligations under article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). In 2011 the United Nations Human Rights Committee (HRC) issued guidance to states parties on their free speech obligations under article 19 that emphasized the high value that the ICCPR places upon uninhibited expression “in circumstances of public debate concerning public figures in the political domain and public institutions,” adding that “State parties should not prohibit criticism of institutions, such as the army or the administration.”

Tunisia’s 2014 constitution in article 31 protects the right to free speech. Moreover, article 49 of the constitution states that any restrictions imposed on the human rights that the constitution guarantees “must not compromise the essence of such rights; must not be imposed except where necessary in a civil and democratic society to protect the rights of others, public order, national defense, public health, or public morals; and that such restrictions must be proportionate to the intended objective.”

Moreover, trying Ayari, a civilian, before a military tribunal violates the norm of international law that military courts should not have jurisdiction over civilians, Human Rights Watch said. The African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, Principles and Guidelines on the right to fair trial and legal assistance in Africa state that military courts should not “in any circumstances whatsoever have jurisdiction over civilians.”

The outflow of ethnic Russians from the republics of the North Caucasus over the last 50 years and especially over the last 25 means that they now have declined to the number who were there in the mid-1930s, according to Russian demographer Sergey Sushchy.

Unless radical steps are taken, steps that would require enormous investments in plants and infrastructure, the scholar at the Southern Academic Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences argues, Russians will continue to decline and may face “demographic collapse” by 2060 (demreview.hse.ru/data/2017/12/21/1161328913/1DemRev_4_3_2017.pdf).

That is, the continuing departure of ethnic Russians combined with the aging of the remaining ethnic Russians who will thus have fewer and fewer children means that Russians will form ever smaller communities across the entire region, much as they now do in Chechnya where they form only 14,000 of the civilian population.

By mid-century, as a result of outmigration of ethnic Russians, their numbers will decline by half under most projections, and then they are likely to collapse because by mid-century, as many as 40 percent of the remaining ethnic Russians will be pensioners incapable of having children and likely to return to ethnic Russian areas.

In 1926, there were 391,000 ethnic Russians in the region. By 1939, that number had risen to 973,000; and by 1970, to 1,436,000. Since that time, it has fallen, to 1,331,000 in 1989, and to 995,000 in 2010. Looking forward, Sushchy says, it is likely to continue to fall to between 690,000 and 780,000 in 2030 and to between 490,000 and 700,000 in 2050.

Sushchy entitles his article in the latest issue of Demograficheskoye obozreniye, “The Russians in the Republics of the North Caucasus – Signs of Geo-Demographic Retreat (the First Half of the 21^st Century),” and his conclusions suggest the Russian “retreat” from the area will continue as far into the future as one can see.

Obviously, demography is not destiny except in the very long term. But a North Caucasus without a significant ethnic Russian population will be difficult if not impossible for Moscow to retain – and the prospect that ethnic Russians there are going to be ever less numerous will undoubtedly help power new ethno-national and religious movements for independence.

(RFE/RL) — The New York Times is reporting that U.S. President Donald Trump ordered Special Counsel Robert Mueller to be fired in June but reversed the decision after the White House counsel threatened to resign.

The Times report published on January 25 cited four unnamed people close to the matter.

The newspaper said there was no immediate responses to requests for comment from the White House.

The Times reported that after Trump ordered Mueller fired, White House counsel Donald McGahn said he would quit rather than follow through on the order.

U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election in favor of Trump and to hurt the chances of Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

Mueller and three congressional panels are separately investigating the alleged meddling and any potential ties between the Trump campaign and the Russians.

Trump denies there was any collusion, and Moscow has denied it interfered in the U.S. election process.

Much speculation has grown around whether Trump will attempt to fire Mueller as his investigation proceeds. Trump has at times called the probe a “witch hunt” and reports of Russian collusion “a hoax.”

The Times report said Trump had argued in June that Mueller had three conflicts of interest that disqualified him from conducting the probe.

Amid the conflicts Trump claimed, the paper reported, was a dispute years ago over fees at Trump National Golf Club in Virginia that had led Mueller to resign his membership.

Yemeni air defense forces shot down a Saudi reconnaissance drone over the Arabian Peninsula country’s central Ma’rib province.

Yemen’s Arabic-language al-Masirah satellite television network reported on Thursday that the drone was shot down over the province’s Harib al-Qaramish region.

It came less than a month after Yemeni fighters managed to shoot down a Saudi unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) on December 30as it was on a reconnaissance mission in Yemen’s northwestern province of Hajjah.

Also, on October 27, Yemeni forces, using a surface-to-air missile, shot down a Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet belonging to the Royal Saudi Air Force as it was flying east of the Yemeni capital city of Sana’a.

Earlier that month, the Yemeni army announced that it also managed to shoot down a US-made General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, a drone operated by the Royal Saudi Air Force.

Such attacks against Saudi forces come in retaliation for the continued massacre of civilians and destruction of Yemen’s infrastructure by the coalition led by the Riyadh regime.

Yemen’s defenseless people have been under massive attacks by the coalition for almost three years but Riyadh has reached none of its objectives in the country so far.

Since March 2015, Saudi Arabia and some of its Arab allies have been carrying out deadly airstrikes against the Houthi Ansarullah movement in an attempt to restore power to fugitive former president Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.

Over 14,000 Yemenis, including thousands of women and children, have lost their lives in the deadly military campaign.

British Prime Minister Theresa May said in a special address at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting that the United Kingdom would continue to be a champion of global trade after it left the European Union. She stressed that the UK would seek to bring new partners to the table and develop new bilateral deals with countries across the world.

May told participants that she has previously argued that the benefits of free trade are not being felt by all, which threatens to undermine popular support for the rules-based system on which global security and prosperity depends. “But I also argued that we could change this. Not by turning our backs on free trade or the global rules-based system – which together have delivered the greatest advances in prosperity we have ever known. But rather by doubling down on them and acting to ensure that the global economy works for everyone. The test of leadership is what actions we take.”

She went on to say that countries must pull in the same direction to ensure the global economy does not leave anyone behind.

May also called on the World Trade Organization (WTO) to move faster on reforms so its rulebook keeps pace with developments in the global economy. She said that while services make up 64% of global GDP, the Trade in Services Agreement remains stalled. While the likes of eBay, Amazon and Alibaba have grown into global giants, the WTO has been struggling to remove barriers to e-commerce trade for almost 20 years.

“Progress on these issues really matters,” she said. “Because technological advances continue to revolutionize the possibilities for humanity, we must have the international frameworks in place to ensure that everyone can benefit from them.”

May outlined her aim to position the UK as a world leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and urged British firms to take advantage of this by setting up more operations in this sector. “We’ve only seen the beginning of what AI can achieve.” She also said the UK is seeking to become a leader in innovation-friendly regulation and one of the safest places in the world to be online.

But she cautioned that technology comes with great responsibility. “Harnessing the power of technology is not just in all our interests but fundamental to the advance of humanity. But it raises new and profound challenges we need to address.”

May called on technology businesses to do more to deal with harmful and damaging content on their platforms. “Companies cannot stand by while their platforms are used to facilitate child abuse, slavery, or the spreading of extremist and terrorist content.” These companies have some of the brightest and best brains in the world, she added, and they must focus these talents on “meeting these fundamental social responsibilities”.

She called for a cross-industry response, saying smaller platforms can quickly become home to terrorists and other groups, and the law needs to keep up with changes in technology.

May concluded by saying that it is important to remember that the risks and challenges faced by the modern world do not outweigh the opportunities. “We must not miss out on the prize of tomorrow.”

By Ashok Sajjanhar

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s just concluded visit to India can be termed as highly productive and successful – both on optics and on substance. Just prior to his arrival, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had termed the visit as ”historic and special.” This was Netanyahu’s first visit to India, coming 15 years after the first visit by an Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in 2003.

Two aspects of the visit are particularly remarkable. First, that it was a long 6-day visit. Normally Heads of State and Government visit, even the friendliest of countries, for a maximum of 3 or 4 days. That the Israeli Prime Minister decided to invest so much time, effort, energy and commitment to the India relationship is indeed exceptional. Second, the visit came a little more than 6 months after the momentous and path-breaking visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Israel in July, 2017, the first ever by an Indian Prime Minister to that country after establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992.

Relations in a variety of sectors between the two countries have been expanding in a robust manner since diplomatic ties were established 25 years ago. It is however incongruous that notwithstanding the rapidly expanding ties, exchange of visits at the highest political level did not take place. Prior to assumption of office by NDA government in 2014, the only Presidential visit from Israel was that of Ezer Weizman in 1997 which was followed by PM Sharon’s visit in 2003. All that changed with Modi’s assumption of power. A spate of visits both ways has been witnessed over the last three years. Israeli President Reuven Rivlin visited India in 2016. Indian President Pranab Mukherjee went to Israel in 2015. He, however, balanced this tour by also visiting Ramallah. Modi himself did not pander to any such demand or niceties and de-hyphenated the relationship with Israel and Palestine by visiting only Israel in July, 2017.

The 25^th anniversary of diplomatic relations has hence witnessed both the heads of government visiting each other to provide a significant impetus to bilateral partnership. It was earlier said that India treats Israel as a mistress: that it is happy to have an affair behind the curtains with it but is not prepared to acknowledge this relationship in the open. With these two high profile, back to back visits, this narrative has been shattered once and for all. The relationship has now emerged in the open as a highly promising, normal partnership.

Before the visit commenced, it was being mentioned by several nay-sayers and doubters that the inbuilt contradictions in India’s support for the Palestinian cause and relations with the Arab and Islamic world will make this relationship a non-starter. To cap it, it was alleged that India had voted in the United Nations against the Resolution to designate Jerusalem as the capital of Israel which would be seen by Israel as an unfriendly act. Netanyahu laid all apprehensions on this score to rest at the very beginning of his tour when he said that one negative vote in the United Nations will have no impact on the blossoming relationship.

It is imperative that for the partnership to realise its full potential, both India and Israel behave as mature democracies and try to understand and appreciate the compulsions of each other on a variety of regional and international issues. The long hiatus in upgrading the political relationship to the highest level occurred because of India’s reluctance in acting in a manner that could compromise its interests in West Asia. India is heavily dependent on the Gulf to meet its energy requirements through import of oil and gas as well as for the significant remittances sent home by the large 8 million diaspora working in that region.

Safety and security of the Indian diaspora is also a matter of keen concern for India. India’s hesitation in fully normalising relations with Israel was also dictated to a significant extent by domestic political considerations as the government did not want to be seen to be doing anything that would be construed adversely by the large domestic Muslim population. It would be essential for Israel to be mindful and cognizant of this background so that no misunderstandings or misplaced expectations derail the smooth progress of this propitious bilateral engagement.

The two sides have done well to focus on the huge potential that exists in taking the partnership to the next level. Defence is an area that had emerged even before diplomatic relations were established. Israel had come to India’s help in the wars in 1962, 1965 and 1971, as also post ’92 during the Kargil conflict in 1999. Israel has emerged as the third largest supplier of sophisticated defence equipment and is likely to rapidly go up the ladder in the coming years. It is understood from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s tweet that the US$ 500 million Spike anti tank missile deal which was surprisingly rejected by the Defence Research and Development Organisation on the eve of the visit is back on track probably as a government-to-government contract. Israel is now collaborating with India not only in supply of sophisticated defense equipment but also in co-designing, co-production and manufacture of these systems under the Make in India programme. In addition to meeting India’s expanding needs in this field, it will also help in creating jobs and technological upgradation in the country. It will also boost innovation in this sector.

Innovation is a sector in which Israel is the clear global leader. It has the second largest number of startups every year, next only to the United States. This is particularly commendable considering the difference between the two countries in terms of their size, population, GDP etc. Innovation in technology, water management, agriculture etc are areas where both countries can cooperate to mutual benefit and advantage. Several agreements covering a wide array of areas including cyber security, metal batteries, oil and gas, films production, space, solar thermal technologies etc. were signed between the two countries. In addition, several contracts between the private sectors of the two countries were entered into. Netanyahu came to India at the head of a large 130-strong business delegation from 102 companies. It was reported that talks on entering into a Free Trade Area will also commence. This would help in significantly enhancing the volume of bilateral trade from US$ 5 billion at present to the targeted level of US$ 10 billion in the near future.

Prime Minister Modi devoted abundant attention, time and care to be with PM Neatnyahu during the latter’s stay in the country. This was limited not only to receiving him at the airport by setting aside protocol as he had done for Obama (2015), Sheikh Hasina (2017), UAE Crown Prince Zayed Al Nahyan (2016 and 2017), but also accompanying Netanyahu to Gujarat, sharing the stage with him at Raisina Dialogue although Modi was not to speak at the event,  and on several other occasions. This sent out a clear message of the importance and significance that Modi accorded to the visit.

Personal chemistry and bonhomie of course plays a useful role in advancing relations between two countries but this is possible only when there is a wide congruence of mutual interest. As is evident, there is a broad commonality of interest between the two countries. Although it is a hyperbole to say as Netanyahu commented that relationship between India and Israel is a ”marriage made in heaven” (he had used the same expression during his recent visit to China), it is nevertheless true that it is a win-win partnership for both the countries. India needs technology, innovation, defence equipment, cooperation in counter-terrorism, training in intelligence gathering etc from Israel, all of which are required to make India a secure, stable and prosperous nation with a better standard of living for its people. For Israel, in addition to the huge market for its manufactured goods and technology as well as defense products (it supplies about 40% of its annual production to India) that India represents, the huge intangible benefit is also the recognition and acceptance it receives from the largest democracy and rapidly growing economic power. More than 30 countries of the UN do not recognize Israel. Being accepted as a friend by India hence holds special value and significance for Israel.

Cultural connections and people-to-people contacts are a significant element of India-Israel partnership. India is one of the few countries in the world where Jews have not faced anti-Semitism. Jews have come to India in different waves over the last two thousand years and lived in different parts of the country without facing any discrimination. Notwithstanding their small numbers, Jews have made a huge contribution to the cultural, artistic, military and literary life in India. Names of some of the better known Indian Jews are Lt General JFR Jacob, Leela Samson, Nissim Ezekiel, Ruth Prawer Jhabvala, cine actors David, Sulochana, Nadira etc.

Netanyahu pulled out all stops to woo the Bollywood film industry by hosting the marquee event ”Shalom Bollywood” in Mumbai which was attended by the Bachchan clan and several high and mighty of the film industry. Netanyahu invited them to shoot their films in the beautiful locales in Israel. Two films starring Alia Bhatt, Jacqueline Fernandez and Sushant Singh Rajput were shot a few months ago in Israel and are likely to be released later this year. Bollywood’s embrace of Israel will not only create jobs in Israel but will also provide a significant impetus to tourism to that country.

All the above mentioned synergies and congruity notwithstanding, there are issues like Palestine and Iran on which both countries have divergent views. China and Pakistan will also provide a challenge but of a lower magnitude. It would be expedient for both India and Israel to take these differences in their stride and not allow them to muddy or strain their bilateral ties.

Counter-terrorism, security, defence, cyber-security, agriculture, innovation, water management, films, people to people contact etc are some of the significant areas in which relations can grow rapidly and significantly. It will do well for the two countries to pay their undivided attention to strengthening and expanding this partnership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit will play a colossal role in taking bilateral ties several rungs up the ladder.

Pro-life laws in Missouri have drawn the ire of members of the Satanic Temple, which has filed a lawsuit claiming the laws violate their religious freedom.

State law requires abortion providers to distribute a booklet from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services which includes the statement: “The life of each human being begins at conception. Abortion will terminate the life of a separate, unique, living human being.”

This law and others drew objections from the Satanic Temple and one of its members, whose lawsuit claims the restrictions violate her religious freedom. The politically active group, based in Salem, Mass., was founded by self-described atheists who profess disbelief in a literal Satan.

The plaintiff goes by the name Mary Doe in the lawsuit, not using her name due to fears of personal attack. In 2015 she traveled to a St. Louis Planned Parenthood clinic from southeast Missouri for the abortion.

The lawsuit seeks to block Missouri’s three-day waiting period for an abortion and a requirement that doctors who perform abortions offer the booklet to women seeking abortions. The suit further objects to requirement that abortionists must offer the women an ultrasound and a chance to hear a fetal heartbeat.

The plaintiff’s complaint says her professed tenets include a belief that a woman’s body is “inviolable and subject to her will alone” and that she makes health decisions regarding her health “based on the best scientific understanding of the world,” according to her complaint. The complaint says a pregnancy is “human tissue” and part of her body that “she alone” can decide to remove.

W. James MacNaughton, a New Jersey lawyer, represented her before the Missouri Supreme Court Jan. 23.

“It is a bedrock principle of our culture (and) of our country that we choose for ourselves what to believe by way of religious beliefs,” MacNaughton told the court, according to the Associated Press. “It’s not the business of government to tell us that.”

The Missouri attorney general’s office is defending the restrictions on abortion, saying religious freedom protections do not apply.

Solicitor General John Sauer told the court that such laws would only protect against obstacles to practicing one’s belief or being forced to violate one’s religion.

MacNaughton, the plaintiff’s lawyer, told the Washington Post the lawsuit was prompted by the Hobby Lobby decision favoring the store owners whose Christian beliefs conflicted with federal mandates to provide abortifacient contraceptives in their employee plans.

“I have thought the really defining issue is religion,” he said. “Are you committing murder when you have an abortion? That’s a religious question.”

The Satanic Temple has filed a similar lawsuit in federal court. Its website says its members and allies have provided “religious exemption and legal protection against laws that unscientifically restrict women’s reproductive autonomy.”

The group’s founders say they identify with Satan’s putative outsider role.

Lucien Greaves is one of the founders. In a statement, he contended the legal case showed the group is “on the front lines working to restore and preserve Enlightenment values.”

In 2014 the group attempted to stage a re-enactment of a satanic “black mass” at Harvard University, initially claiming it would use a consecrated Host from a Catholic Mass. The Harvard Extension Cultural Studies Club had intended to host the event on campus. The event was voluntarily moved from campus and then postponed indefinitely after loss of venue.

The group has also previously engaged in political advocacy.

In 2015 it had planned to place a statue of an occultic Baphomet figure on the grounds of the Oklahoma capitol on religious freedom claims. Shortly afterward, a court ordered the removal of a Ten Commandments monument on the capitol grounds.

In response to a Minnesota town’s debate over a veterans’ memorial that had a cross, the group proposed its own version of a memorial involving pentagrams.

By Kishore Kumar Khera*

Canada is doubling its contribution to the Global Partnership for Education to $180 million a year, Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, told participants at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting.

Trudeau said that for any society to prosper, everyone has to be given the chance to succeed and to realize their dreams. Education is central to providing that chance.

The Global Partnership for Education is an international organization focused on getting all children into school for a quality education in the world’s poorest countries.

Emphasizing the particular importance of educating girls and women, Trudeau said: “Educate and empower women and the debate changes, the concerns change and the type of decisions made change – all for the better.” He added that Canada has adopted a “global feminist development policy”, with all initiatives looked at “through a
gender lens”. This was “the most effective way of making a lasting difference in the world,” he said.

Trudeau also strongly backs an educational focus on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), saying a thorough understanding of science method and skills such as coding will help people adapt to the rapidly changing nature of work. “Even symphonic composers and filmmakers will need to be powerful users of technology,” he said.

He called on men to be protagonists in the empowerment of women: “Men must have the courage to be feminists and the integrity to be allies.”

Sharing the platform with Trudeau was Malala Yousafzai, Girls’ Education Activist and Co-Founder of the Malala Fund in the United Kingdom. She urged the world’s business sector to contribute far higher levels of funding to girls’ education than they do at present.

“With investment in women, the returns are very high and the opportunity costs very low,” she said. “Educated, skilled women lift economic growth, help reduce poverty, change perceptions and eradicate evils like child labour. But we must make a first step and start funding for learning.”

Fabiola Gianotti, Director-General of the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), said she is a proponent of a diverse education to form well-rounded citizens. “As a scientist, I would say that my early studies in the humanities have contributed as much to me as a person as physics has,” she added.

The world is wasting vast human potential by failing to properly educate young people, said Orit Gadiesh, Chairman of Bain & Company. She added that a basic education is no longer sufficient to last a person a lifetime. “We need to inspire people to continue to seek out new knowledge, to learn new jobs – jobs that don’t exist today. Young people need to believe that they can continue learning.”

The World Economic Forum’s 48th Annual Meeting is taking place on 23-26 January 2018 in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. More than 3,000 leaders from around the world are gathering in a collaborative effort to shape the global, regional and industry agendas, with a commitment to improve the state of the world.

Forces of the Islamic State group have kicked-off a huge offensive against the Syrian Arab Army in the province of Deir ez-Zor, reportedly assaulting government defense from across the Euphrates River, Al-Masdar News reports.

Military-affiliated sources reported that Islamic State militants launched a powerful offensive operation against the Syrian army on Thursday, January 25 morning, crossing from east shore to the west shore of the Euphrates at multiple points.

At present, savage clashes between the Syrian army and the IS are taking place at the towns of Al-Asharah and Subaikhan on the western shore of the Euphrates. It is unclear whether or not Islamic State terrorists have managed to make any advance.

Russian warplanes have responded to the offensive by conducting heavy airstrikes against Islamic State fighter gatherings and movements; in addition to this Syrian army rocket launchers and howitzers are shelling IS non-stop.

According to media reports, so far both the Syrian army and IS have suffered high losses and the current battle appears to be far from over.

Human beings take up a lot of real estate — around 50-70 percent of the Earth’s land surface. And our increasing footprint affects how mammals of all sizes, from all over the planet, move.

A study recently published by Science found that, on average, mammals living in human-modified habitats move two to three times less far than their counterparts in areas untouched by humans. What’s more, this pattern persists globally: from African forest elephants to white-tailed antelope squirrels in North America, the human footprint infringes upon the footprints of mammal species both big and small. The study, led by Marlee Tucker of the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, is the first of its kind to log movement behaviors for such a wide range of mammals globally.

“All organisms need space,” Bruce Patterson, a co-author of this study and MacArthur Curator of Mammals at The Field Museum in Chicago, explained. “They need space to gather their resources, find mates, and perform their ecological services.” For instance, bats need room to find and consume insects and pollinate plants (which amount to $3.5 to 50 billion worth of agricultural labor annually in the US alone), and apex predators need room to hunt and control other species’ populations.

In the study, more than 100 researchers contributed information on 803 individual mammals representing 57 species in total. Patterson offered up data on the movement of lions in a pristine wilderness area of Tsavo, Kenya. From 2002-09, he followed three lions using high-tech collars that continuously tracked individuals’ movement via GPS — the data he contributed to the Science study. One of those lions, in its natural habitat, patrolled an area twice the size of Chicago (1400 km2) to find food, attract mates, and repel intruders.

But habitat loss and fragmentation disrupt these critical animal behaviors. Clearing rainforest is an example of habitat loss — the destruction and loss of usable area for a given species. Constructing a road through the savannah, on the other hand, constitutes habitat fragmentation — the division of habitat area into smaller, discontinuous spaces. When suitable habitat spaces become too small or too isolated, animals can no longer afford to visit them, changing their space use.

As habitats become compromised, resources like food and living space that animals rely on become scarce. Sometimes, when resources are limited, animals traverse larger areas to get what they need — if there’s not enough food in a five-mile radius, they might move to a ten-mile radius. However, this study shows that on the whole, that sort of additional movement tends not to be an option — if there’s no uninterrupted landscape available, then the affected animals simply can’t live there.

To that end, the Science study found “strong negative effects of the human footprint on median and long-distance displacements of terrestrial mammals.” Patterson put it more simply: “Human dominion over Earth’s landscapes gets in the way of animals doing their thing.” Some species, like mice, can make do with less room, but animals that need lots of space, like lions, tigers, and elephants, simply can’t live in areas with lots of humans.

“It is important that animals move, because in moving they carry out important ecological functions like transporting nutrients and seeds between different areas. Additionally, mammalian movements bring different species together and thus allow for interactions in food webs that might otherwise not occur. If mammals move less this could alter any of these ecosystem functions,” says lead author Marlee Tucker.

Across the wide array of species its data encompasses, the study points to a singular, and grim, conclusion: For mammal species, the effects of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation don’t discriminate by geographic location, body size, or where that species sits on the food chain — the human footprint threatens most other mammals.

Still, Patterson remains hopeful that the Science study can guide further research and change our approach to human land use. “Ultimately, it would be good to know whether there are critical thresholds in the human footprint for the species living around us. Are there specific points beyond which resources become limiting and species are excluded?” he asked. “As we continue to transform the landscape and as the human population expands, we’re limiting the space and resources that other mammals need to live.”

By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan

It is now getting clear that towards the end of this year, Bangladesh will be having general elections. Both the main parties the Awami League and the BNP have begun preparations for the elections.

But recently, Khaleda Zia gave a curious direction to the party cadres to prepare for the elections and also prepare for a ‘movement’. Certainly both cannot be done together. Either the party meekly participates in the polls held with the present government in charge or go all out for a movement to prevent the conduct of the polls. The cadres are said to be confused. In trying to do both simultaneoiusly, the party may fall between the stools. It is also doubtful whether the party in its current condition can start a major nation wide movement to prevent the elections!

In the same breath, Khaleda declared that they would “surely” join the election, but it has to be held under a neutral and non party government! It has also called for a dialogue on the issue. It is uncertain whether the Awami League would relent for a dialogue and even if it happens, it looks that the Awami League led government may not relent on the issue of conducting the elections while in power as provided for in the Constitution.

The Awami League is aware that the BNP has no choice but to contest the elections if the party has to remain relevant. The Awami League is also aware that the BNP has not had any major movement in the last year and a half and any such movement on a large scale will not be tolerated either by the government or by the people, despite the fact the BNP’s connections with the violence prone JEI is still in tact.

It is now realised by the leaders of the BNP and more so by the rank and file that they had made a mistake in boycotting the 2014 elections. By indulging in violence and arson ( in one instance a bus was burnt with all passengers inside!) to prevent the lawfully elected Government, the party ended up with innumerable cases in the courts some of which are still pending. The leaders had to spend most of their time in going to the courts and the prisons in connection with the cases.

Some BNP leaders have said that the present movement to get a neutral free government will be “peaceful.” With the Jamaat cadres in tow, any movement by the BNP will end up in violence and instead of achieving its objective of getting a polls free neutral government, the senior leaders of the party may end up in being jailed on the eve of elections. This will be unfortunate as the party has a good chance of a creditable showing in the next elections.

It looks that BNP has to find some decent and adequate excuse to participate in the next elections as the present government is in no mood to change the constitutional provisions relating to the conduct of the elections.

In her address to the nation, Sheikh Hasina spelled out very clearly her government’s stand on the next elections. Unlike Khaleda she was forthright and decisive. She said

* General election will be held in line with the Constitutional provisions.

* Elections will be held towards the end of 2018.

* How the election is to be conducted is clearly stated in the Constitution (meaning no deviation to suit the demands of the BNP is acceptable)

* An Election time Government will be formed under the Constitution which will provide all out cooperation to the Election Commission to conduct the elections.

* The Election Commission was constituted in a fair manner and has earned people’s confidence through conducting some local government elections, including one or two city corporations in a fair manner.

* some vested quarters might try to create anarchy in the country centering on the next elections.

Sheikh Hasina in the same address to the nation listed the achievements of her government particularly in its economy and in containing terrorism and militancy. She said that her country is determined to cross the middle income group by 2021 and a developed and prosperous one by 2041.

Indeed Hasina’s government has made impressive strides in economy with the growth rate of 7.28 percent in 2017 proving the estimates of international agencies wrong and surpassing the official yearly target of 7.2 percent! With this historical growth its GDP size stood at nearly $250 billion and the per capita income has increased to $1610 last year from $1465. It has proved Kissinger wrong and has never been a “basket case”.

Bangladesh has made an impressive socio economic progress and it is now 44th largest world economy and 33rd in terms of purchasing power.

The Government’s relentless pursuit against terrorism is also yielding results. The recent raid on January 2nd of a raid against ‘Neo JMB’ in Chittagong led to arrests and recovery of suicide vests and hand grenades is a case in point.

A confrontation on a relatively minor issue like a poll free government should not affect general stability and economic progress of the country. If the opposition could succeed in the recent mayoral elections – one in Comilla and another in Rangpur when the present government is in power, it should also be possible to conduct the general elections in a free and fair manner.

The BNP has to review its position and not go for a confrontation. This is in its own interest and in the interest of the country.

Women’s labor-force participation rates vary around the globe, and families juggle responsibilities based on policies and work opportunities.

By Joseph Chamie*

Despite noteworthy progress achieved in gender equality, especially in education, employment and politics, women continue to stay at home more than men. Across countries, even among those actively promoting equality of the sexes, the labor force participation rates of women, while substantially higher than in the past, remain below those of men.

Among the economies examined by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, for example, the average labor participation rates of men and women are 80 and 64 percent, respectively. Large differences between the participation rates of men and women are observed in India, at 52 percent, and Turkey, 41 percent, with 35 percent or less in Mexico and Indonesia. In contrast, small differences in the participation rates of men and women, around 4 percent, are reported in Sweden, Finland and Norway. In between the two extremes are many developed countries with double-digit differences in participation rates of men and women, including Italy, 20 percent; Japan, 17 percent; and the United States, 11 percent.

A leading factor influencing gender differences in labor participation involves childbearing and child rearing. By and large, a substantial proportion of mothers withdraw from employment after childbirth. In Germany and the United Kingdom, for example, one in four women leave the labor force following the birth of a child. The impact of parenthood on employment operates in opposite directions for men and women: Employment rates generally decline for women and decline for men.

In addition, childrearing increases levels of part-time work among mothers. In most countries, the incidence of part-time employment is higher for women than men. On average in OECD countries, 26 percent of women and less than 7 percent of men work part-time. Gender differences in time devoted to unpaid care work also impact women’s employment. In every region, according to available data, women spend more than twice as much time than men on housework and family care. In addition to raising children and providing unpaid household work, caregiving responsibilities for elderly, ill or needy family members typically fall on women’s shoulders.

For mothers with young children, the impact of having a partner or being a single parent is mixed. In some countries, such as Mexico, Italy and the United States, lone mothers have higher employment rates than partnered mothers, in others, such as Australia, France, Netherlands and Sweden, partnered mothers have higher rates.

The majority of women and menin every region of the world agree that work outside the home is acceptable for women in families. Globally, the proportions of women and men preferring women to work at paid jobs are 77 and 66 percent, respectively. However, substantial proportions of women and men prefer families with stay-at-home women. Worldwide, more than a quarter of adults – 27 percent of women and 29 percent of men – prefer families with stay-at-home women.

Attitudes about stay-at-home women vary across regions. Countries with relatively high proportions preferring families with stay-at-home women are typically developing countries in South Asia and the Middle East, including Bangladesh and Pakistan. In contrast, low proportions indicating preference for families with stay-at-home women are generally developed countries in Europe, including Denmark, Italy and Sweden. In between are both developing and developed countries such as Brazil, China, Russia and the United States, where about one-quarter of men and women prefer families with stay-at-home women.

Generally, men have higher rates of preference for stay-at-home women, but not always. In Denmark, India, Japan and Sweden, for example, women’s preferences for families with stay-at-home women exceed those of men. Preferences for stay-at-home women also vary by age group. Women and men aged 30 years and over have greater preferences for stay-at-home women than those below age 30.

Again, childbirth and child-rearing are key factors behind such preferences. Practical considerations, including costs of childcare and lack of access to suitable facilities, also play a role. In the United States, for example, childcare can cost more than college. With no government option for care of young children, nearly 60 percent of American parents report that they cannot find reliable, affordable childcare near their homes.

Almost universally, men and women mention a work-family balance as among their top challenges and a reason women stay at home or work part-time. Many, in particular conservative and traditional groups, contend that a stay-at-home mother is essential for family wellbeing, especially for young children. They point to research suggesting long-term benefits for children with stay-at-home parents and challenges for family well-being when mothers work.

Some oppose stay-at-home mothers. French feminist Simone de Beauvoir in 1975 said: “No woman should be authorized to stay at home and raise her children…. Women should not have that choice, precisely because if there is such a choice, too many women will make that one.”  More recently, Sarrah Le Marquand, editor-in-chief of the Australian magazine Stellar, wrote that it should be illegal for mothers of school-aged children to stay home and maintains that only when women are expected to work and earn money as men do, with both parents sharing the stress of the “home-work juggle,” will gender equality improve. In addition, stay-at-home women offer untapped potential in the Australian labor force, with considerable gains for the economy if they were employed.

Various reasons are offered for encouraging women to join the formal labor force – including economic independence, self-reliance, retirement preparation and the benefit of female role models, especially for daughters. Families with two incomes are better prepared for unemployment, higher education, martial disruption, illness or economic downturns.  Also, recent improvements in the world’s major economies, relatively low unemployment rates and bright prospects for the near term have made it easier for stay-at-home mothers to reenter the labor force, even when they choose to work part-time.

Despite efforts to promote gender equality in occupations and professions, many women still choose to stay at home or work part-time. In the United States, for example, a 2015 Gallup survey found that more than half of women with children under age 18 would prefer to stay at home over working outside the home. Also, nearly 40 percent of women without children under age 18 indicated that they preferred the homemaker role. Available data confirm that women on average spend less and more discontinuous time in the labor force and earn lower wages than men, especially if they have children. Breaks in employment occur frequently following childbirth and generally tend to continue over the early childhood years.

In addition to women having lower labor force participation rates than men, women’s wages remain below those of men. While over the past several decades the gender wage gap has narrowed in nearly all OECD countries, women earn on average 16 percent less than men per hour worked. Gender differences in factors influencing productivity, such as education, potential experience and job tenure, account for little of the gender gap in wages.  Gaps are linked to the undervaluation of women’s work and skills needed in female-dominated occupations, discrimination practices as well as career breaks for family responsibilities.

Most women and men around the world no longer subscribe to the proverb “a woman’s place is in the home” and prefer that women pursue paid employment. Substantial gains in women’s labor force participation have been achieved in recent decades with growing support for policies that enable women to remain employed and encourage men to take on a fair share of family care. Also, in recognition of gender inequality in employment, companies have emerged offering programs, guidance and assistance to facilitate the reentry of stay-at-home mothers into the workforce. Nevertheless, gender differences and human reproduction will likely result in more stay-at-home women than men.

*Joseph Chamie is an independent consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division. 

By Erik Davtyan*

In November 2017, the European Union Eastern Partnership (EaP) summit in Brussels culminated in the signing of the Comprehensive and Enlarged Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the EU and Armenia. The CEPA ended a four-year limbo that emerged after Armenia unexpectedly rejected an EU Association Agreement (AA) in 2013, allowing Armenian officials to celebrate the significance of the milestone. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan remarked that the CEPA is not “merely a legal document, but a reflection on the wealth of values of human rights and fundamental freedoms that we share.” Yet, the CEPA was not the only deal concluded in Brussels during the summit: on the same day, Armenia and the EU inked deals on aviation and on extending the Trans-European Transport (TEN-T) network to the Republic of Armenia. While these developments alter the narrative on EU-Armenia relations, they also have wider implications for the South Caucasus region. What does EU-Armenia rapprochement mean for Georgia, Armenia’s ardently pro-European neighbor?

The EU and the Eurasian Economic Union: Armenia and Georgia Reframe the Narrative

Since gaining independence in the early 1990s, Armenia and Georgia have progressed similarly along the path of European integration, utilizing the same toolkit for developing bilateral relations with the EU. Both countries signed Partnership and Cooperation Agreements with the EU in 1996 and later participated in the European Neighborhood Policy in 2004 and the Eastern Partnership in 2009. They simultaneously launched negotiations regarding Association Agreements in 2010 and later signed agreements on visa facilitation and readmission of persons residing without authorization. It was not until the 2013 Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius that the two states chose radically different paths of engagement with the European Union: Georgia initialed the Association Agreement (which was then signed the following year), whereas Armenia decided to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

As neighboring states that have historically enjoyed high levels of cooperation, the newfound policy divergence left Georgia and Armenia to consider this impact on bilateral relations and how they would approach membership in opposing economic blocs. Georgian State Minister on European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Alex Petriashvili dispelled such uncertainty just days after Armenian President Sargsyan declared his intention to join the Russian-led Customs Union, the predecessor to the EAEU. During a visit to Yerevan, Petriashvili unequivocally stated that Armenia’s decision “will not hamper bilateral cooperation with Georgia.” Since then, Armenian and Georgian officials at the highest level have frequently emphasized that participating in different integration processes will not affect bilateral relations; the experience presents an opportunity, rather than a challenge. A joint press conference between the two countries’ presidents in 2014 illustrates the optimism with which they approached that new reality. Sargsyan remarked that Georgia’s AA with the EU “affords Armenian businessmen an opportunity to [participate] in the European market and make investments in Georgia.” Likewise, Armenia’s accession to the Russian-led Customs Union would open the Eurasian market to Georgian businessmen. As Georgia’s former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili said, “This might set a good example for the international community.” These statements do not reflect merely an adjustment to new realities, but a call to realize the untapped potential of the neighbors enjoying high levels of economic relations with both the EU and Russia.

The EaP Summit: Political Implications for Armenia-Georgia Relations

There’s no doubt that the Comprehensive and Enlarged Partnership Agreement heralds a new stage in EU-Armenia relations and promises deeper engagement in issues such as civil society, investment and trade, people-to-people contacts, transport, and energy. These developments are important for Georgia because it seeks membership in the EU and is thus highly interested in EU-related events in its immediate neighborhood. Turkey, another EU aspirant, currently has strained relations with the bloc. Most recently, in July 2017, the European Parliament passed a resolution criticizing Turkey’s proposed constitutional reforms as evidence of backsliding in the rule of law and restricting freedom of the press. The resolution further called for a suspension of accession negotiations should Turkey accept the reforms without change. Another of Georgia’s neighbors, Azerbaijan, periodically faces criticism from the EU concerning its brutal crackdown on democracy. This sharp divergence in political values prevents Azerbaijan’s leadership from approaching the bloc too closely. Accordingly, Azerbaijan has expressed no interest pursuing an AA.

Given its geographic isolation from Europe, Georgia wants its neighbors to cultivate closer relations with the EU. Doing so will increase the “European presence” and direct more attention from the EU to the South Caucasus. As neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan has made any serious progress in European integration, the Comprehensive and Enlarged Partnership Agreement between the EU and Armenia represents the only significant achievement in Georgia’s immediate neighborhood.

Armenia’s renewed involvement with the EU will strengthen the Armenian-Georgian dialogue in European affairs and will allow the two countries to better advocate the interests of the South Caucasus. Perhaps the best illustration of this newfound political potential is Georgia’s relations with two other EaP participants: Ukraine and Moldova. Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia perceive themselves as a group “speaking with one voice” to complete the final step—membership in the EU. In September 2017, for instance, Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova held a trilateral meeting of foreign ministers to elaborate “a joint vision before the [EaP] summit.” A couple months prior, their parliaments signed a joint statement calling on the EU to open the membership perspective for all three states.

Of course, Georgia and Armenia’s foreign policy goals have less in common than Moldova’s, Ukraine’s, and Georgia’s. Nevertheless, this example demonstrates the qualitative changes the CEPA can bring to Armenia-Georgia relations. The two states will now be able to switch their focus from “adjusting to differences” (as was the case since 2014) to “increasing commonalities.” Notably, this coincides with Armenia’s expectations for the EaP. As President Sargsyan has stated, Armenia believes that the EaP was launched to “serve as a unifying factor, thus removing the dividing lines.” As a land-locked state, facing blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia does not want to lag behind its neighbors in terms of regional cooperation, and the EaP is perceived as a comprehensive program that could fill this gap.

Practical Areas for Armenia-Georgia Cooperation

Setting aside the political implications for Georgia’s EU aspirations, the agreements signed at the EaP summit in Brussels present an updated agenda for cooperation that offer several new areas for Armenia-Georgia partnership. For instance, the extension of the TEN-T (an EU initiative to construct and upgrade transport infrastructure across Europe) to Armenia envisages closer cooperation and connectivity via joint infrastructure projects. Given the blockade that Turkey imposed on Armenia in 1993 in response to the Nagorno-Karabakh war, any plans to increase connectivity between the EU and Armenia necessarily involve Georgia, as it is the only transit zone between the two parties. Armenia and Georgia have already carried out several joint infrastructure projects supported by EU financial institutions, so the extension of TEN-T to Armenia will add great value to current projects. As Georgia is also interested in its own high-quality connection to European transport networks, the more effort Armenia and the EU put into their transport cooperation, the more Georgia will benefit.

Another prospective area for practical Armenia-Georgia cooperation is visa liberalization. The Joint Declaration of the recent EaP summit states that the EU looks forward “to consider[ing] in due course the opening of visa liberalization dialogue with Armenia,” a prospect that the President of Armenia has also endorsed. Though negotiations have not yet kicked off, the Armenian government desires to do so soon. Yet, securing a visa-free regime from the EU is not an easy task. Georgia, for instance, began its visa liberalization dialogue in 2012 and successfully completed it only in 2017. Drawing on this experience, Georgian officials can offer insights to their Armenia counterparts to help ensure that the latter conducts its own dialogue more efficiently.

Lastly, renewable energy offers a promising area for cooperation. The EU, Armenia, and Georgia are all highly dependent on energy imports. Raising the share of renewable energy supplies is of critical importance to all three parties. Georgia and Armenia have huge potential for solar and wind energy, and as part of its assistance programs, the EU has supported these countries’ renewable energy potential. In Armenia alone, the EU has spent over 30 million euros developing the energy sector of the country, including the construction of a new electricity line between Armenia and Georgia. As the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini said that under the CEPA the EU will continue to support the development of Armenia’s renewable energy, so this may further stimulate Georgia and Armenia to collaborate on joint renewable energy projects.

Thus, the CEPA, coupled with the other two agreements signed at the EaP summit in Brussels, opens a new stage in EU-Armenia relations. These agreements outline several major areas for renewed cooperation between the parties and thereby generate tools for boosting practical partnership between Armenia and Georgia.

About the author:
*Erik Davtyan is a PhD student at the Faculty of International Relations, Yerevan State University.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

The foresight of reformist and former Prime Minister Narashima Rao, projecting India and ASEAN cooperation a dynamic economic zone, is tending to be in reality. He launched Look East policy , focusing synergy of India’s growth linking to Asian’s spur in growth. His Look East policy became pivot to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Act Asia policy, which pitched for a strong and long term vision to rein political and economic clout in Asia. This resulted engagement of India and ASEAN in strategic partnership, extending the cooperation in defence and security from trade and investment.

Though at the surface level, the aim to invite ASEAN leaders in the most auspicious event on Republic Day celebration , is to commemorate 25 years of partnership, the real aim is to dig at China’s aggressive postures in South China sea and its flexing economic and political muscles through BRI ( Belt and Road Initiative). So far, never so large number of Heads of the nations were invited together to be the chief guests at Republic Day celebration – the most honorable occasion of the country.

Given the shared maritime and landed boundaries, the deepening of the cooperation will pave the way for India- ASEAN connectivity and will unsure India’s greater role for diluting security concern in the region, , besides expanding economic cooperation. Correspondingly, acceptance of the invitation by ASEAN leaders underlines the regional block’s yarn for India’s support after the South China sea conflict erupted. In a way, the connectivity will turn a political slugfest against China’s predatory in grabbing Asian power.

New Delhi will be holding 25 years Commemorative Summit before the Republic Day celebration. In the summit, Mr Modi will give updates of some of the construction activities under way for the connectivity. Viewed from the close lenses, these activities may pose a challenge to China’s assertiveness for Asian power. For example, India- Thailand – Myanmar trilateral highway and its extension to Laos and Cambodia exemplify the intension of challenging China’s BRI (Belt and Road initiative). High priorities will be given for the connectivity in road and river and their financial stakes, according to Minister for Road and Transport, Nitin Gadkari.

Other cases of the connectivity, which may challenge China’s economic outreaches, are India’s proposed Line of Credit of US $500 billion for projects that support physical and digital connectivity between India and ASEAN. India has set up a Project Development Fund of US $ 77 million to create manufacturing hubs in CLMV countries ( Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) and ASEAN-India air connectivity will be optimized , according to Mr Gadkari.

Besides connectivity, maritime cooperation, which has become the backbone for India-ASEAN strategic partnership, may act instrumental to reduce tensions in South China sea. Both have agreed to establish a Maritime Transport Working Group between India and Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia to examine the feasibility of shipping networks, maintain their stakes and safeguard their interests in the region.

To this end, Vietnam will be the linchpin in the ASEAN leaders visits in Republic Day celebration. The visit of Vietnam’s President Tran Dai Quang , back to back visit after the visit of Prime Minster Modi to Vietnam in September 2016, will unleash a significant momentum in the relation. Mr Modi’s visit to Vietnam after 15 years of an Indian Prime Minister’ visit to that country and particularly after the outbreak of dispute in South China sea, hold paramount importance for India to play a new role in the region. China defied arbitration by UNCLS (UN Convention on Law of Sea) against its claim for sovereignty in the water. In South China sea water, both India and Vietnam’s interests are involved. In this perspective, China’s defiance has become a major security concern.

For India, the major concern is that half of its international trade passes through South China sea. The sea water turn volatile for India’s trade transit in the wake of disputes between Vietnam and China with their maritime rights. In addition to trade , India’s oil interests in the South China sea is in doldrums due to disputes. With the China’s defiance, India is at loggerheads with its off-shore oil drilling in Vietnam territorial water in the sea. In 2006, ONGC of India was awarded two oil blocks in Vietnam territorial water. One of them was relinquished by ONGC. The remaining one block (Block 128) is caught in dispute after China claimed its sovereignty.

Nevertheless, even though China is the biggest trade partner of Vietnam , it could not make a dent in the preference list of Vietnamese. India is much above China in the Vietnamese choices, despite the economic relations between the two countries is at low ebb and the country is ruled by communist regime ( Communist Party of Vietnam).

Modi’s visit to Vietnam after the UN arbitration, raised hope for Vietnam to strengthen its arm to put pressure on China . Vietnam did not put direct pressure on Beijing , fearing China’s political and military clout. It was sending its concerns through mustering the support of other powerful countries opposing the Chinese defiance . India is one of them.

To this end, Modi’s commitment for US $ 500 million credit to Vietnam for procurement of defence equipment and implementation of India- Vietnam Defence Relations of May 2015, underscored India’s role as a big brother in South East Asia against Chinese aggressive postures. The ten year old strategic partnership between India and Vietnam was ramped up to Comprehensive Strategic partnership engagement, unleashing deeper meaning of all round cooperation between the two countries.

In economic front, Singapore – one of the key members of ASEAN – has become the second biggest foreign investor, leaving behind major investors like USA , Japan, Netherland and Germany . This reflects a simmering success of Act Asia policy in fostering economic engagement between India and ASEAN. During the three years period of Modi government, foreign investment acted a prime role in boosting investment in the wake of languishing domestic investment. In this perspective, extending red carpet to ASEAN leaders in Republic Day will pose a big challenge to China in reining economic and political clout in Asia.

People will live to the age of 140 within a few decades, hospitals will be transformed into mere casualty rooms as patient self-management of health becomes the norm, 5G-connected ambulances will save millions of lives by accessing digitized trauma data and performing procedures in transit, experts told the World Economic Forum.

These exciting developments are coming soon. However, cancers are already being detected months earlier than before, thanks to small, wearable health-monitoring devices. Computer vision is allowing the visually impaired to “see”; dyslexia sufferers are reading and surgeons are rehearsing complicated operations in a holographic-robotics environment.

“Technology and healthcare have long existed in their own metaphorical silos, but now these two worlds are colliding,” said Albert Bourla, Chief Operating Officer, Pfizer Inc. This collision means more and better medicines are being delivered faster to sick people, while biological sensors have dramatically improved diagnosis, he added. Also, predictive diagnosis brings preventive measures rather than reactive. Such dramatic transformation in the sector is having a major disruptive effect on healthcare stakeholders and their relationships, he said.

“Even the mundane – but vital – area of hospital administration is being transformed, with real-time interactive recording of patient outcomes dramatically reducing bureaucracy and costs,” noted Satya Nadella, Chief Executive Officer, Microsoft Corp. Nadella said the artificial intelligence techniques working with data enable medical scientists to “stand on the shoulder of giants” as they can instantly access best-case history. This resolves the impossible task of practitioners keeping up with new developments and removes the problem of medical students’ knowledge becoming “outdated” on the day they graduate.

While the new technology may be dazzling, “the focus of healthcare must be on the patient,” emphasized Michael F. Neidorff, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Centene Corporation. Care will become increasingly personalized as the particular, often unique, issues of individuals are identified. Doctors will remain essential in detailed diagnosis and care regimes.

“Chronic diseases are the leading cause of morbidity in the world, accounting for more than 60% of all deaths. Yet most of these diseases are preventable and many are reversible with accurate and early diagnosis,” said Rajeev Suri, President and Chief Executive Officer, Nokia Corporation. Nokia is working on non-invasive, wearable devices that will continuously monitor vital signs – such as cortisol and glucose levels – and immediately pick up irregularities. Millions upon millions of lives can be saved, Suri said. He sees the collection of this personal data as filling the void between medical consultations, eliminating the need for repeated blood testing, for example.

Technological innovation is costly and the question of affordability and a possible widening of inequalities in healthcare provision was raised. Neidorff said this underlines the need “to recognize healthcare as a fundamental human right”. The debate has to move in the direction of political policy to ensure that everyone can benefit. The solution to the affordability issue lies with both government and the private sector.

Other speakers underscored how much money can be saved by the new technology-driven approach, freeing funds for a broad-based healthcare system. One example is early intervention in diabetes cases eliminating 700,000 emergency room visits and 340,000 hospital admissions a year in the United States. This would mean a saving of $47 billion.

Archaeologists say they may have discovered one of the earliest examples of a ‘crayon’ – possibly used by our ancestors 10,000 years ago for applying colour to their animal skins or for artwork.

The ochre crayon was discovered near an ancient lake, now blanketed in peat, near Scarborough, North Yorkshire. An ochre pebble was found at another site on the opposite side of the lake.

The pebble had a heavily striated surface that is likely to have been scraped to produce a red pigment powder. The crayon measures 22mm long and 7mm wide.

Ochre is an important mineral pigment used by prehistoric hunter-gatherers across the globe. The latest finds suggest people collected ochre and processed it in different ways during the Mesolithic period.

The ochre objects were studied as part of an interdisciplinary collaboration between the Departments of Archaeology and Physics at the University of York, using state-of-the-art techniques to establish their composition.

The artefacts were found at Seamer Carr and Flixton School House. Both sites are situated in a landscape rich in prehistory, including one of the most famous Mesolithic sites in Europe, Star Carr.

A pendant was discovered at Star Carr in 2015 and is the earliest known Mesolithic art in Britain. Here, more than 30 red deer antler headdresses were found which may have been used as a disguise in hunting, or during ritual performances by shamans when communicating with animal spirits.

Lead author, Dr Andy Needham from the University of York’s Department of Archaeology, said the latest discoveries helped further our understanding of Mesolithic life.

He commented: “Colour was a very significant part of hunter-gatherer life and ochre gives you a very vibrant red colour. It is very important in the Mesolithic period and seems to be used in a number of ways.

“One of the latest objects we have found looks exactly like a crayon; the tip is faceted and has gone from a rounded end to a really sharpened end, suggesting it has been used.

“For me it is a very significant object and helps us build a bigger picture of what life was like in the area; it suggests it would have been a very colourful place.”

The research team say Flixton was a key location in the Mesolithic period and the two objects help paint a vibrant picture of how the people interacted with the local environment.

“The pebble and crayon were located in an area already rich in art. It is possible there could have been an artistic use for these objects, perhaps for colouring animal skins or for use in decorative artwork,” Dr Needham added.

By James Jeffrey

Ethiopia’s most notorious prison lurks within the capital’s atmospheric Piazza, the city’s old quarter popular for its party scene at the weekend when the neon signs, loud discos and merry abandon at night continue into the early hours of the morning.

The troubling contrast is one of many in this land of often painful contradictions. The Ethiopian Federal Police Force Central Bureau of Criminal Investigation, more commonly known by its Amharic name of Maekelawi, has for decades been associated with torture and police brutality—a symbol of the dark underside of the authoritarian nature of the so-called Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

But this January 3, Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced the government would close the detention centre and release prisoners, including those from political parties.

An unprecedented action by a government not known for compromise rather for its stubborn intransigence to criticism of its oppressive methods, it took most by surprise, resulting in guarded praise from even the government’s staunchest critics such as international human rights organisations.

Since the announcement, though, subsequent proclamations from the government have muddied the issue and led many to question the government’s sincerity amid general confusion on all sides regarding the practicalities and terms of prisoner release.

What most observers seem more sure of is that the episode illustrates the speed and scale of change occurring among the four parties that constitute the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party.

“The decision was a concession to the very strong demand made by the Oromo People Democratic Organisation (OPDP) which governs the Oromia regional state,” says Awol Allo, an Ethiopian lecturer in law at Keele University in the UK, who can’t return to Ethiopia for fear of arrest.

The EPRDF was the brainchild of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a Marxist-Leninist movement that spearheaded the defeat of Ethiopia’s former military dictatorship the Derg to liberate the Tigray region, whose Tigrayan ethnic group constitute only about 6.5 percent of Ethiopia’s more than 100 million population today.

In the final days of Ethiopia’s civil war, the TPLF orchestrated the creation of three satellite parties from other elements of the rebel force: the OPDO, the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) to ostensibly represent their respective ethnic groups but which enabled the TPLF to consolidate its grip on power after the Derg fell in 1991.

That grip became vice like over the years—the TPLF dominates business and the economy as well as the country’s military and security apparatus—much to the consternation of Ethiopia’s other ethnic groups, especially the Oromo.

Constituting 35 percent of Ethiopia’s population, the Oromo are its largest ethnic group. They also constitute the largest proportion of inmates at Maekelawi and in the rest of country’s federal and regional prisons. This, Allo notes, cannot be explained simply by the numerical size of the Oromo population.

“There is a disproportionate and indiscriminate repression of the Oromo because they are suspected to pose a threat by virtue of their status as the single largest ethnic group in the country,” Allo says.

That perceived threat has only increased in the government’s eyes—as well as among some of the other ethnic minorities in the country such as the Somali—since November of 2015 when Oromos took to the streets at the start of a protest movement that continues to this day.

And since the protesting Oromo were joined by the Amhara in 2016—the two ethnic groups representing 67 percent of the population—the government has had to recognise the depth and scale of anger against it.

Hence it is now trying to appease the groundswell of discontent in the country that poses the greatest threat to the country’s stability—perhaps even the survival of the Ethiopian nation state itself—since 1991; the risk of state failure in Ethiopia saw it ranked 15th out of 178 countries—up from 24th in 2016—in the annual Fragile States Index by the Fund for Peace.

The problem, though, with such mollifying efforts by the government, as with the current announcement, is they usually don’t go the necessary distance.

“The EPRDF has taken responsibility for the political crisis in the country and has apologised for its leadership failures and undemocratic actions,” says Lidetu Ayele, founder of the local opposition Ethiopia Democratic Party. “But it has not accepted the presence of political prisoners in the country. These are contradictory outlooks and a clear manifestation that the ruling party is not ready to make genuine reform.”

The EPRDF has long been criticised—domestically and internationally—for using draconian anti-terrorism charges to detain political prisoners, and then in true Orwellian fashion arguing those charges mean there are no political prisoners in Ethiopia. Human rights groups have estimated political prisoner numbers in the tens of thousands.

With the announcement about Maekelawi and the prisoner release, however, it initially appeared the government was making a clear break with the past and acknowledging the existence of political prisoners. But soon afterwards it tried to backtrack, with government spokespersons vacillating about what had been meant by political prisoners.

“The announcement of the release of prisoners is highly symptomatic of the disorganization, if not the cacophony, among the leadership,” says René Lefort, who has been visiting and writing about Ethiopia since the 1974 revolution that ended emperor Haile Selassie’s reign and brought in the Derg military dictatorship that would fall to the EPRDF.

“This decision could have been the most resounding proof of the sincerity of the EPRDF to launch a democratizing process. But as it has been announced in successive versions lacking essential points—who exactly is effected; when will they be freed, and will it be unconditionally or, as in the past, only having apologized—this decision has largely lost the impact it could have had.”

Such political flip-flopping and indications of infighting in the government leave some with little confidence about the significance of the promise to end Maekelawi’s history of torture and ill-treatment, as documented in chilling detail by Human Rights Watch.

“The closure of the torture chamber does not signify anything because the government will undoubtedly continue the same practise at other locations,” says Alemante Selassie, emeritus professor at the William and Mary Law School in the US.

Others are less sceptical of the government’s motives.

“It’s not a smokescreen, it’s been under discussion within the context of the interparty dialogue ever since the parties stated their wish lists of issues at the beginning of 2017,” says Sandy Wade, a former European Union diplomat in Addis Ababa. “It is a necessary step in the run-up to the 2018 and 2020 elections—and for the future of the country—if [the government] wants opposition participation, which they do.”

On Jan. 15, Ethiopian Attorney General Getachew Ambaye gave a briefing saying that charges at a federal level brought against 115 prisoners had been dropped as part of the first phase to release jailed politicians and other convicts.

Although the attorney general did not mention names of prominent political figures imprisoned, on Jan. 17. Merera Gudina, leader of the Oromo Federalist Party arrested in 2016, was released.

The attorney general added that the Southern Ethiopia Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Regional State—a region of more than 58 ethnic groups—had dropped charges against 413 inmates also, and that other regions would follow suit in the next couple of months, with political figures in jail who have been “convicted” of crimes given amnesty.

At the same time, though, it appears the jury remains very much out on whether the government is genuinely committed to democratization and achieving a national consensus in the longer term.

“If they are, this would be a transformative moment for Ethiopia,” Awol says. “Either way, Ethiopia cannot be governed in the same way it has for the last 26 years.”

Which leaves the big—possibly existential—question facing Ethiopia: whether the government can and will come up with the necessary strategy and then implement it successfully in time for the 2018 local and 2020 national elections.

“If the EPRDF wants to rescue itself and the country from total collapse, what we need is genuine and swift political reform that will enable the country to have free and fair elections,” Lidetu says. “Anything less than that will not solve the current political crisis.”

How are cyber threats evolving? What can be done to mitigate these threats? Are the solutions technical ones, or do they lie in human instinct and response?

By Foo Siang-tse*

2017 was a watershed year with an unprecedented number of cyber hacks, leaks and data breaches. We believe 2018 will be worse, as attackers become increasingly creative with attack methods and increasingly destructive payloads that better target system vulnerabilities. Why is this so?

Asymmetric Threat Landscape

First, the threat landscape will continue to be asymmetrical. Threat actors have an edge over enterprises that are hard-pressed to staff up internal cyber security teams.

State-sponsored actors and, increasingly, organised crime groups are well-funded, organised and resourced. They can afford to take their time to do research on their target, create the right malware and tailor their attacks to their targets. Even if they were to fail the first time, they can persist to try again and again at very little marginal cost.

These entities are aided by the breathtaking rate of technological advancement. But attackers have also begun to acquire an increasingly deep understanding of human nature. This has manifest itself in more nuanced attacks that make use of social engineering and behavioural insights.

What we have seen in recent years is the continued evolution of (and preference for) very complex and precise spear phishing campaigns, unlike spam or phishing e-mails which are mass attacks. A spear phishing campaign targets specific individuals, organisations or businesses, to collect sensitive information.

It may take the form of a professional-sounding, personalised e-mail that makes use of personal data collected from public posts on social media sites and blogs to target subjects to lower their guard – to entice them to click on suspicious links or open documents that may be virus-contaminated.

Hacking and Shadow Economy

Hacking has created a shadow economy where data is bought and sold on the dark Web to organised cybercriminal syndicates. Data is the new oil. It is what threat actors are after, and what needs the most protection.

This has birthed a booming shadow economy. On top of personal data, zero-day exploits (targeting vulnerabilities that the target has no awareness of) are also available for sale. Large botnets are available for rent, and so are services such as ransomware-as-a-service and DDoS-as-a-service. DDoS attacks – distributed denial of service — flood a target system with more traffic than it can handle, bringing it down.

There is a market for exploits, which are attacks on computer systems made through a particular vulnerability of the system, and for trading these exploits. There is a growing number of actors trading such exploits which drives up supply.

An iOS zero-day – an attack mechanism targeting previously unknown vulnerabilities in Apple mobile operating systems – can cost as much as US$1.5 million (S$2 million). It is no wonder that technically gifted programmers see the attraction of providing such services.

Healthcare Industry Exposed

In 2018, we will see an increasing number of extortionist attacks around the world targeting critical infrastructure. Transportation, energy and medical institutions are choice targets as a service outage can cause severe public backlash and, therefore, increases the possibility of a payout.

In recent months, the healthcare industry has been a victim of more attacks. This is because of the value of healthcare data – such as medical histories – which can be used for a variety of cyber fraud.

Cyber attacks will cost American hospitals more than US$305 billion over five years and one in 13 patients will have their data compromised by a hack, according to industry consultancy Accenture in a 2015 report. A 2015 study by Brookings showed that, since late 2009, the medical information of more than 155 million Americans has been exposed without their permission through about 1,500 breaches.

Healthcare institutions are vulnerable partly because government regulations forced healthcare operators to adopt electronic health records and other advances even if they weren’t ready to adequately invest in security.

Would-be smart nations should take note that mass adoptions of digital solutions do create a security nightmare, giving hackers an endless attack surface to target.

Evolve to Stay Ahead

So how should organisations respond? For swift detection and mitigation of threats, what is critical is round-the-clock monitoring of networks, applications and devices, through an in-house security operation centre or outsourced service. The next generation of security operations centres also need to incorporate big data analytics and deep machine learning capabilities to keep on top of the massive amount of data generated.

At the operational level, the overall incident response framework must be routinely audited and strengthened. The incident response team must be drilled through specific skills training, table top scenarios, and full-fledged, realistic, red team-blue team exercises (blue team being the defenders; red team the simulated attackers). External assistance should be sought if there is a lack of internal skillsets or personnel.

Singapore organisations especially need to take the threat of cyber attacks more seriously. A survey conducted by managed security services provider Quann and research firm IDC in June last year covered 150 senior IT professionals from medium to large companies based in Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia.

The results showed that 40 per cent of the respondents do not have incident response plans for when they are being attacked and 67 per cent do not practise their incident response plans.

Need for Comprehensive Strategy

Cyber security requires a comprehensive approach that goes beyond the chief information security officer or head of information technology. The executive leadership must not see cyber security as a cost centre and an IT issue, but as an integral part of corporate risk management.

Senior management and the board must understand the threat landscape and data protection strategies.

Beyond the board and management, every employee matters. A Cyber Security Agency of Singapore 2017 survey showed that Singaporeans display risky behaviour that jeopardises their own and their company’s cyber security. It does not matter how advanced the corporate anti-virus is if employees indiscriminately download free but potentially malware-laden software from dubious sources. Every careless employee is an open door for hackers to exploit.

With the number and complexity of attacks rising, enterprises need to stay on top of their cyber security preparedness.

Effective cyber security is not about keeping up with the cyber security products arms race. Instead, it is about ensuring that seemingly mundane tasks, such as keeping patches up-to-date, ensuring that security hardware is maintained and managed well, and ensuring compliance with user policies and procedures, are performed well by human beings.

Even with the best technology, the human factor plays a critical role in ensuring enterprises stay cyber secure. Firewalls must be kept up-to-date but the most important firewall is still the human one.

*Foo Siang-tse is managing director of Quann, a managed security services provider. Shashi Jayakumar is Head, Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS) and Executive Coordinator, Future Issues and Technology at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

This commentary is written in memory of Mr Chng Ho Kiat, Director, Cyber Security and Resilience Division, Ministry of Communications and Information, who passed away on 24 January 2018.

A version of this commentary first appeared in The Straits Times 26 Jan 2018.