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China And A New Type Of Global Leadership – OpEd

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“Never forget why you started, and you can accomplish your mission,” President Xi Jinping said during his report to the 19th Communist Party (CPC) Congress last October. This resonates well at a time when China and its external environment are faced with tremendous transition challenges and uncertainties. The success of China’s reform and opening up lends affirmation to its unique syncretic politico-economic model of “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” Xi confidently repeated that sticking to this line, with a few fundamental tweaks, is in China’s best interest. Strong political will, continuity and efficiency brought about by one-party rule ensure speedy and sustained implementation of long term plans and reforms, although not without detrimental effects to the growth of genuine pluralism and democracy.

Although the report was generally intended for domestic consumption, it also gave considerable coverage to China’s vision of playing a greater global role. This was best captured in one of the key tenets of Xi’s Thought – “major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics” which “aims to foster a new type of international relations and build a community with a shared future for mankind.” What does this new slogan herald for China and the world?

Road to leadership is a road less travelled

Xi is emerging as the most ardent post-Deng Chinese leader to shed the old “hide your strength, bide your time” mantra. His signature initiatives, notably the Belt and Road Initiative, Silk Road Fund and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, demonstrate China’s growing capacity to provide public goods. His support for the multipolar BRICS, G20, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia shows an eagerness to welcome new regional/global economic and security configurations.

The timing cannot be anymore fortuitous given the apparent reluctance of traditional global leader the United States to assume what President Trump views as an unwarranted and lopsided global burden. While China is earning goodwill and influence with the steady progress of its outbound investments and connectivity projects, the U.S. is becoming more alienated from allies and friends because of its rhetoric and actions. This may cut a path for China’s ascent to global leadership, but that trail will not be an easy one despite changing geopolitical dynamics. To some extent, Trump’s language suggests that the interests of the American people and the country’s economy had been compromised by past leaders with their bids to buttress U.S. global preeminence and this may be instructive for China.

Xi outlined an ambitious goal for China to become a global leader by around 2050, but it remains to be seen whether conditions from now until then will permit China to make such a transformation. It is another matter whether China can muster the resources required to sustain global leadership, given increasingly complex domestic demands. More importantly, it is worth asking whether China is willing to do so, for what price and if it is ready for the long haul.

Are all dreams created equal?

Xi’s report was replete with comforting words about how China envisions its role in the community of nations, maintaining that the Chinese Dream is closely connected with the dreams of peoples of other countries. He stressed that preserving world peace and promoting common development constitutes one of China’s three historic tasks, alongside advancing modernization and realizing reunification. China’s commitment to increase assistance to least developed countries, help reduce the North-South development gap, support multilateral trade regimes, the United Nations and calls for reforms of the global governance system to give greater voice to developing countries are all noteworthy. As the world’s largest developing country, China is well positioned to champion the cause of the global South. But as the world’s second largest economy with great potential and determined drive to become number one, will China continue to promote South issues when it eventually graduates to the North?

China’s Belt and Road could help boost globalization, given its vision for connectivity in policy, infrastructure, trade, finance, and people-to-people linkages. A national policy of opening up and the pursuit of development is also welcomed, but while the private sector has made tremendous inroads, China’s economy continues to be dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state industrial planning still holds sway. Trump complained about this in a November 2017 speech before APEC CEOs in Danang, Vietnam. SOEs are at the forefront of China’s “Go Out” policy and are busy implementing BRI projects abroad. SOE engagement in politically volatile and high-investment risk countries ran counter to reforms aimed at compelling them to make more sound business decisions. This illustrates the primacy of political over market considerations. While it is good for poor and post-conflict states with dire chances of attracting foreign capital, it increases China’s exposure to potentially bad debt and may compel Beijing to take measures to mitigate cost and ensure investment recovery which may trigger adverse backlash from host countries.

The means are as important as the ends

Xi’s report also made mention of China’s drive to be a global leader in innovation, but China has to understand that the manner by which it arrives at that apex matters. Hence, the principle of all-means-are-fair-game should be abandoned. Beijing should ensure that its companies, including SOEs, observe intellectual property rights and competition laws and refrain from forcing foreign firms to relinquish technology and other proprietary trade secrets in exchange for market access. Notwithstanding national security considerations, Chinese firms’ involvement in uncompetitive practices and undue advantage from state support create an adverse climate to Chinese takeovers and acquisitions. Playing with the established rules is necessary to elicit reciprocal treatment.

Beijing’s recognition that no country alone can address mankind’s challenges shows the Chinese government’s interest in working with other countries, especially in addressing nontraditional security challenges like terrorism, pandemics and climate change. Its call for partnerships instead of alliances supports an end to Cold War thinking where alliances were usually directed against a third party. China’s amoral foreign policy and commitment to non-interference suggests that it will oppose and not take part in regime change, even under responsibility-to-protect pretexts. Will this position remain unchanged even in the case of failed or failing states?

A solemn promise never to seek hegemony or engage in expansion is warmly received, but reports of steady progress in artificial island building in the contested South China Sea continue to create discomfort with littoral neighbors. Market access, outbound investments and tourism are increasingly becoming part of China’s expanding economic tools, which can be put to bear to influence, if not coerce, other countries’ foreign policy – a scenario which may not jive with its opposition to the strong bullying the weak. Demand for energy, raw materials, technology and markets are globalizing China’s economic interests. To what extent will Beijing go to protect those?

In sum, the 19th Congress report outlined promising opportunities for China to play ever greater constructive and positive roles for the world. However, making those contributions will not be without challenges, and the manner and motives behind such efforts will always be under scrutiny.

This article was published at China-US Focus


Declassifying ‘Lone-Wolf’ Terrorism: Formulating A ‘Counter-Terror’ Strategy – Analysis

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By Anant Mishra*

After “extensively” analysing and assessing global nation’s counter terrorism response towards lone wolf terror attacks along with the challenges faced by domestic and external security and intelligence agencies, numerous “viable” pragmatic counter-terror strategies were drafted by military and strategic experts throughout the world. Actions carried by “Lone-Wolf” terrorists are “virtually invisible” to “identify and separate”, hindering domestic and intelligence agencies to formulate an “accurate response”. The traditional “profiling” in law enforcement is no longer a viable strategy, particularly towards identifying the “lone-wolf” actor, however, the actor’s “operational mechanism” in the form of an “individualistic response” leaves numerous clues which law enforcement departments particularly hailing from domestic and intelligence groups can use to formulate an effective and efficient strategy.

Moreover, roughly every lone wolf attacker has showcased his/her commitment towards a cause, an alignment or a connection with active“terrorist factions”, pointing towards “increasing presence of radicalised youth” separating them from “potential sympathetic individuals and supporters”. In the light of “aggravating attacks” from “lone wolf terrorists”followed by the rise of “aggressive right-wing factions” (such as A.B. Breivik), law enforcement officers continue to face enormous challenges, especially when it comes to formulating a “viable” applicable strategyto identify lone wolf attackers, who continues to “hide in plain sight”, fearlessly.

Introduction

After the aggressive violence induced by radical Islamic terrorists against Charlie Hebdo on January 7th, 2015, the threat induced by lone wolf attackers have become a “top” priority for law enforcement officers particularly those hailing from domestic and external intelligence agencies. The law enforcement and intelligence agencies in Parisfaced with two prominent questions:

  • Was there any intelligence input prior to the attack?
  • Was there any way to prevent tragic loss of lives?
  • What should be the strategy to identify perpetrators and their plots?
  • Can we prevent future attacks from happening?

All the aforementioned questions are difficult to address. The Directorate General for External Security (DGSE) continues to simulate multiple “responses”, whereas the General Directorate for Internal Security has started “counter-terrorism liaison program” with Directorate of Military Intelligence (DRM) along with Directorate for Defence Protection and Security (DPSD) in an effort to “strengthen, cooperate and coordinate” a response against future attacks. There is no absolute way to provide a suitable answer for the fourth aforementioned question, rather than stating the fact that, it is absolutely “difficult” for security and intelligence agencies to forecast and prevent future possible attacks. No intelligence agency would talk the responsibility to answer, however, drawing a strategic response in an effort to forecast and prevent an attack in the future would be “difficult”. The objective of the article is to evaluate and assess viable pragmatic counter-terror approachesagainst the threat posed by lone wolf terrorismwhile especially emphasising on strategies to counter “Charlie Hebdo” styled attacks. To begin with strategic viable solutions, it is imperative for policy makers to first define lone wolf terrorism.

The definition

The term “lone wolf” was first introduced by US law enforcement agencies towards individuals carrying out attacks outside a designated command structure.Operation Lone Wolf was carried by Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)to “apprehend” Alex Curtis who instigated “right-wing factions” to participate in “lone-wolf” activism. Since then, numerous terminologies have been introduced by various strategic and intelligence experts, some calling it asan “individual resistance”, “self-indoctrinated terrorism tactics”and “self-sponsored terrorism”.

The article does not lean to a particular definition rather encourages law enforcement agencies and security, intelligence establishment to collect all “available definitions under an umbrella” in an effort to formulate an effective strategy. Traditional Counter-terrorism centred think tanksdefine Lone wolf as “an individual who acts on his/her own will outside a traditional organizing structure or a group”. Moreover, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) taking the definition to an extent, separates the definition with sleeper agents pointing towards the “dormant” nature of the sleeper agent who is “purposefully” tasked to infiltrate an organization and only reveals himself only on the command of a group or an organization. On the contrary, “A lone wolf is an “individual” operative without a “command and control” structurewho on his free will initiatives an attack”. Although,many counter-terrorism agencies ignore the “ideological” connection of the individual with other “active groups”, which the lone wolf could have been interacting either through “intra-personal interaction” or by “accessing internet”.

Throughout the article the focus will remain on “Operational mechanism” of lone wolf attackers. Although, a significant percentage of lone wolf attackers have been found “influenced” with radical Islamic militant organizations, such as the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda, the “decision, operational planning and carrying out procedure” has largely been “self”, instead of following “traditional commands” from the organizational leaders. Moreover, it is imperative for policy makers to include those “individuals that are inspired/self-indoctrinated by violent radical religion-centric terror organization” within the brackets lone wolf terrorism definition. They could have maintained “links” with the radical religion-centric organization, but the structure of the organization could not be “traditional”.

Absence of a “traditional individualistic behaviour”

Numerous terror attacks carried by “lone-wolves”in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Australia, in particular to the attack by Barend Strydom, an African national, whoshot and killed a dozen people while wounding many, at the Strijdom Square in Pretoria, South Africa; In La Défense, a man stabbed and mortally wounded a soldier Cédric Cordier. The soldier was later declared “out of danger”. The attacker was identified as Alexandre Dhaussy, a French national who converted to Islam; Another Islamist Mohammed Merah killed over seven people in the city of Toulouse while taking numerous hostage. He was later killed during a 32-hour standoff; In one of the first deadliest attack in Germany, Arid Ukashot and killed two US soldiers while mortally wounding many others at Frankfort Airport; On October 22nd, 2014, a Canadian national Michael Zehaf-Bibeau shot a soldier on-guard at the National War Memorial. The suspect then ran towards the Parliament of Canada and was engaged in a gun-battle with the forces. Additionally,subsequent attempts were made to bomb Seaside Park, New Jersey, lower Manhattan, New York; and New Jersey. Injuring over thirty civilians, the perpetrator Ahmad Khan Rahami was apprehended from Linden, New Jersey, after he open fired injuring three responding officers.

Policy makers must note that, the mastermind” individuals of some aforementioned examples of deadly violence and attacks, vary particularly with respect to their operational mechanism and “target locations”, along with ideological and political inclined groups. Moreover, the common element in these attacks point towards a particular indoctrination or “religion induced”. All the lone wolf attackers were strongly “believers of faith”.

It is important to note that, there is absolutely no “traditional” framework of a lone wolf attacker. However, in the light of their religion centric “differences” and “ideological” mindset coupled with the element of “faith in religion”, makes it easy for security and intelligence agencies to “classify or rule out lone wolf terror attack”. Additionally, there are certain characteristics which possess “significant similarities” among all lone wolf attackers. The fact that continues to challenge security and intelligence agencies is the presence of “few lone wolf attacks which were carried by individuals without any connection to a terror faction”. According to a research conducted by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe(OSCE) jointly with INTERPOL, less than 1.34percent out of 78 lone wolf attacks in US, Germany, Canada, Australia were “individualistic” in nature. This numerical value further complicates the investigation carried by security and law enforcement agencies of lone wolf attacks, seriously hindering their ability to formulate a viable counter-terrorism strategy. Besides all agreements considered, the lone wolf attacks continue to accelerate phenomenally.

Identifying “motivating factors” of lone wolf elements

It will not be incorrect to state that, the radical religion-centric lone wolf “modus operandi” hosts similar characteristics of traditional “right-wing” lone wolf attacks. Throughout the 1990s, Tom Metzger and AlexCurtis openly instigated their followers to commit violent acts of crime. Furthermore,“radical-white” advocator Louis Beam, who was a former member of the notorious Ku Klux Klan, drew the “early strategy on how to carry out a leaderless revolution”. He drafted a scenario where “individuals could carry out attacks without responding to a centralised organization or a leader established headquarters”.

Although, experts have not directly linked the modus operandi used by “radical Islamic centred”lone wolf extremists with that of traditional “right-wing” attackers,however there is striking similarity ofsmall-scale attacks. In 2003, Osama-Bin Laden, through his supporters distributed “instructions” asking his followers not to wait for any instructions in “carrying out attacks”. He further asked his followers “to use whatever means available”. In the late 2004, Abu Musab al-Suri, a Spanish-Syrian national, who was an active member of the “closed circle” group of Bin Laden, published his narrative of Islamic Jihad through a paper titled “Call for Worldwide Islamic Resistance,”. In this roughly seventeen hundred “doctrine”, he mentioned a “new form of jihad”, highlighting the acts of terror carried by “small groups”, which he titled them as “leader-less resistance”. Individuals irrespective of their nationality or age, will wage war on allfronts-“fighting the West in the West”. Two years later, Abu Jihad al-Masri, a prominent figure in Al-Qaeda, published his narrative titled “How to fight alone”which was massively downloaded from Jihadi-centric websites.

Challenges faced by security and intelligence agencies

Lone wolf terrorist attacks are one of the most “unpredictable and difficult to diagnose” events. It will not be incorrect to state that, lone wolf terror attacks bring “nightmare” to intelligence agencies, domestic security institutions, national and regional law enforcement organizationsas they are extremely “sensitive” and “revolve around multiple possible scenarios”.

To begin with, lone wolf elements possess “individualistic” characterises, who live “shadowing intelligence agencies” in “plain clothes”. The attacker may be someone’s relative, friend, husband, brother, or neighbour living next door. Intelligence agencies cannot come to a inclusion simply by studying the perpetrators visual appearance or “daily routines”. The individual avoids “absolute outside contact” making his/her actions discreet. This further increases the difficulty for security and intelligence agencies to “identify and apprehend” a lone wolf attacker. While comparing the individual’s actions to “traditional/conventional terrorist factions”or “centralised command centred” terror actors, “individual” actors have the benefit to maintain a “low-life” and avoiding “all forms of attraction/suspicion” before and post-attack.

When “conventional” terror group members operate, the risk of “detection” from security and intelligence agencies remains high.

Furthermore, in the light of growing “right-wing” political activism followed by frequent protests by anti-government groups, it is very difficult for law enforcement agencies to differentiate between a political activist or a terrorist. This poses a grave threat to security and intelligence officers especially when they are forced to swing between their “gut” and “individual actions”, failing repeatedly to identify perpetrator while reassessing the individual’s operational mechanism, choice of targetor activities or propaganda. The epitome of lone wolf is “idiosyncratic”. They are individuals with motivated by “numerous ideologies and factors”: from radical Islamic fundamental or Wahhabi ideology to “extreme-right wing”, while suffering from “suicidal, obsessive compulsive behavioural disorder” which then fuels psychopathy. This “diverse” behaviour induces certain “vision”, which forces them make hateful comments/accusations on the internet, to disruptive activities which later concurs their quest of “violent actions”, which does not give away anything “unusual” characteristics forecasting the individual’s actions to be “violent”, alerting security and intelligence agencies only when the attack has occurred.

Policy makers must note that, it is literally impossible to differentiate between the lone wolves who carry violent attacks and radical fundamentalists who simply advocate their beliefs. In European Union member nations, and in US specifically, the “freedom of speech is absolute” which limits the investigation of intelligence and security agencies to only “active violent actions”. Although all terrorists are “radicals”but not every radical is a terrorist, which makes it a phenomenally difficult task for security agencies to rule out the “lone wolf”who is going to initiate an attack before the concerned agencies apprehend, particularly in the light of digital age and rapidly evolving “technical tools” used in intelligence.Policy makers must note that, the “original” lone wolves could have “seemingly popularity” which could result in the rise of “copiers”and instigate the youths in carrying attacks using “similar techniques”.

It is important to remember that, lone wolf attackers suffer from necessary skills, technical training, and“organizational support”of violent terror factions, their “attacks”,in the form of Charlie Hebdo shooting and the 32-hour hostage crisis in Sydney, can be lethal.

Drafting an effective Counter-terror policy

How should the intelligence and security agencies deal with the“phenomenally” growing threat of lone wolf terror attackswhile facing enormous challenges of identifying and arresting them, without raising suspicions? This question remains “unanswered” especially in an inclusive society which continues to debate on “human rights” and police brutality. Although, the fact remains unchanged: security and intelligence agencies are facing an enormous challenge,especially when it comes to lone wolves carrying out attacks “using all means available”.

However, the aforementioned statements and shortcomings highlight significant factors which could be utilised by policy makers to formulate an effective counter-terror strategy.

To begin with, the approach agency uses to track “radical elements” entering and exiting a country, plays a vital role. Formulating the strategy which focusses more on “how an attack” could take place rather than “the identity of the attacker” creates a big difference. Furthermore, it is imperative for security and intelligence agencies to extensively study on “how does an individual radicalises”, the entire procedure. Such “aggressive” and “out-of-the box” strategy could effectively reinforce the state’scounter-terror policywhich could, if “effectively and efficiently planned”, could put an end to a possible lone wolf attack.

It is imperative for security and intelligence agencies to understand the modus operandi of a lone wolf,while formulating carefully a “detection trap”unavoidable even by the “careful” individuals while reinforced with “every tactical manoeuvre”used in counter-terror planning. Counter-terror training should be extensive throughout law enforcement units, while training in “signal avoidance”, “isolation and individualism” should be provided at all levels, in an effort to apprehend a perpetrator “isolating” himself before an attack. This not only requires real time data inputsbut also requires an “effective and efficient flow of information and its management”. The union between the intelligence analysts and field operation staff makes the difference.

Furthermore, intelligence agencies should bring their attention to the essential “common feature” that might be link one lone wolf with another, separating the individual from “community” while indicating an “irrational behaviour”. At this point, security and intelligence agencies must “coordinate and cooperate” with relevant agencies before “making an arrest”. Also, it is important for security and intelligence agencies to strengthen their grip on community, which can be achieved by hosting confidence building mechanisms within the community, after all the masses are the true “eyes and ears”.

Policy makers must note that, lone wolf operators, although acting alone, at some point of time, receive inspiration from an ideology or violent actors, it is imperative for security and intelligence agencies to disrupt presence of any such materials or “hidden societies”. It the state’s responsibility to condemn any, all such acts, ideologies which promotes violence.

Since, lone wolves act outside the framework of an organization, their acts are ignited by a local incident. State must initiate awareness talks, community development “de-radicalisation” centric program inviting students, teachers, community leaders, parents and all stakeholders, while maintaining an “healthy” atmosphere rather than panic.

The formulation of an effective counter-terror program begins with “communicating” with certain section of communities. Alternatively, this should be carried out without “providing their acts a stage and an audience”. Countering lone wolves is a priority but not at the stake of “publicising” them in a way that incites others to “take the same route”.

In the end, the most effective way to counter lone wolf attacks rests in “understanding their operational mechanism”. In recent violent incidents, all the perpetrators where masculine and used licensed firearms to commit acts of crime.This “selective individuals” who carries licenced arms and significant ammunition needs to be isolated and carefully assessed by security and intelligence agencies. This can be done by “strengthening gun licensing policy along with strict background checks”.

Conclusion

As explained in the aforementioned arguments, security and intelligence agencies face an enormous challenge in countering lone wolf attackswhile any “formidable” counter terror strategy would have limited impact. Similar to all acts of terrorism,there is no way to guarantee absolute elimination of this threat. With this said, the road to counter lone wolf terrorism is “rough and long”. The answers for the question on “factors responsible for radicalisation of lone wolf terror actors” are in its premature stage,needs to be assessed thoroughly. In the light of increasing lone wolf terror attacks, new question repeatedly emerges, particularly highlighting the role of internet along with “narcissistic sadistic” comments made by “right wing” factions against minority communities. With few “radical Islamic” lone wolf actors, the question of “an individual’s sudden change of course to commit acts of terror” makes it difficult for security agencies to respond. Thus, through “extensive cooperation and coordination” between inter and intra domestic and intelligence agencies along with timely sharing of ideas, experience and assessment of lone wolf terror attacks,policy makers will be able to create viable counter-terror response against lone wolf acts of terrorism.

About the author:
*Anant Mishra
is a strategic affairs analyst with specialization on Afghanistan

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy

Western Chauvinism Against Russia Gone Berserk – OpEd

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For you non-sports minded Russia watchers, the ethically flawed antics of the IOC (International Olympic Committee), WADA (World Anti-Doping Agency) and Western mass media at large, highlight a predominating anti-Russian bias that have a definite bigoted aspect. Having personally penned the title of this essay, let me say that the February 1 CAS (Court of Arbitration for Sport) decision favoring Russian athletes, is proof positive that not everyone in the West is motivated (subconsciously or otherwise) by anti-Russian sentiment.

Upon announcing its decision to ban Russia from the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics (with some Russian athletes competing under the Olympic flag and “Olympic Athlete from Russia” designation), the IOC indicated that the WADA propped McLaren report’s claim of a Russian state-sponsored Olympic and Paralympic doping campaign hasn’t been proven. Yet, this fact hasn’t stopped the BBC and New York Times from falsely stating that the IOC decision is based on a primary Russian government culpability. Without definitively making the case in the open, the IOC said that there were testing irregularities at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, that favored some Russian athletes.

The CAS decision took into consideration that a good number of the IOC banned athletes have been extensively tested inside and outside of Russia over a lengthy period of time, without ever being found guilty of a drug infraction. In addition, the CAS (on the known facts) reasonably concluded that the claimed 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic testing irregularities haven’t been firmly concluded. Even if these irregularities occurred (something that remains unclear on account of the claim not being fully presented in the open), one then practically wonders whether it was with the knowledge of any or all of the effected Russian athletes and if their actual test results were indeed positive? Meantime, the prior and post 2014 Winter Olympic Olympic drug tests of a good number of these athletes reveal innocence.

In reply to these particulars, I’ve heard some Western chauvinist spin, saying that the CAS cleared Russians athletes aren’t necessarily innocent, on account that they still could’ve cheated without getting caught. That very same logic applies to non-Russian athletes who might very well have succeeded in finding a way around the process.

The CAS found 11 Russian Olympians to have been previously found guilty of a drug infraction, that warranted a ban from Pyeongchang, as opposed to the hypocritically flawed IOC decision to implement a lifetime ban against them. The hypocrisy concerns the number of non-Russian athletes found guilty of doping, who didn’t receive lifetime bans.

On the matter of gross anti-Russian hypocrisy, note famed US Olympic swimmer Michael Phelps’ 2009 admission of smoking pot. Phelps wasn’t banned from Olympic competition for that action. On the other hand, the IOC feels that it’s appropriate to ban the Russian 1500 meter speed skating world record holder Denis Yuskov from the upcoming Winter Olympics, for a prior marijuana smoking episode in 2008. The unfairness of that move has been noted by some earnest folks in the West. Another of several repugnant anti-Russian IOC acts, concerns the banning of Russian short track speed skater Viktor Ahn.

As I’ve previously noted, Richard McLaren’s claim that 1000 Russian athletes benefitted from a Russian government involved illicit regimen of cheating, would likely mean that ALL of the Russian athletes in question, would be shown beyond a reasonable doubt to have taken such a course. This hasn’t been proven at all, with a note that the combined Russian Summer and Winter Olympic and Paralympic participating athletes is (if I’m not mistaken)under 1000.

On the US based National Public Radio, I heard the WADA connected American legal sports politico Travis Tygart (in rather self serving fashion) suggest his objectivity, by noting how he went after the legendary American cyclist Lance Armstrong. This is sheer BS, as Tygart never advocated banning all American cyclists and-or all US athletes from major competition.  In comparison, Tygart (along with Canadian sports legal politico Dick Pound and some other pious blowhards) have favored a collective ban on all Russian athletes.

The likes of Tygart have a committed track record of extreme bias against Russia. In contrast, the IOC President Thomas Bach, comes across as a wishy washy sort, not fit to serve his position. It’s a high point of chutzpah for Bach to second guess the CAS ruling on Russia, by saying that the CAS needs to be revamped. Bach and his fellow IOC cronies have belittled the CAS decision, with the announcement that none of the cleared Russian athletes will be invited to the upcoming Winter Olympics. Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko befittingly said that the IOC and WADA are in need of restructuring. As of this writing, the CAS is considering a follow-up appeal from the banned Russian athletes seeking to compete in Pyeongchang.

At the 2016 Rio Summer Olympics, Bach took the position that the individual sports federations should decide on whether to restrict Russian partition. With rare exception, most of these IOC affiliated sports bodies decided (based on facts) that Russia shouldn’t be penalized at that Olympiad. This time around, Bach has leaned towards the “pressure”, as constantly rehashed by leading Western mass media outlets “to do something” against Russia.

February 2 RT article, provides a healthy offset to the overall biased Western mass media reporting on the subject of Russian sports doping. The former details numerous reasons for not believing much of the negative allegations against Russian Olympians. Among the particulars, is the faulty notion that Russian athletes live and train under the same state manipulated structure. In actuality, a good number of them train outside Russia, with non-Russian coaches. Touching on this last point, The Washington Post’s Sally Jenkins had an August 10, 2016 article, that showed how Russian swimmer Yulia Efimova, had taken performance enhancing drugs on her own, while training in the US, as opposed to some Russian state-sponsored method. (On the subject of Russian sports doping, Jenkins’ aforementioned piece is an exception to the generally biased trend in Western mass media.)

It’s matter of established record that Italy has the most Olympic sports dopers, despite having a smaller number of competing athletes when compared to Russia. Per capita, India, Turkey and Iran have higher rates of such doping infractions than Russia, with South Africa and Belgium having about the same percentage of positive doping as Russia. The December 24, 2017 Worlds Apart show, suggests that a disproportionate number of Western athletes have been given exemptions for drugs having a performance enhancing capability. (That RT show had earlier featured Dick Pound, which I followed up on.)

*Michael Averko is a New York based independent foreign policy analyst and media critic. A closely related version of this article was initially placed at the Strategic Culture Foundation’s website on February 8.

Central Banks Holding Steady, But Promise More Rate Hikes – OpEd

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By Ryan McMaken*

  • On February 5, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its key rate steady at 1.5 percent.
  • The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.25 percent in January.
  • At its February Meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would hold the Federal Funds Rate steady at 1.5 percent.
  • The Bank of England in January warned that it plans to hike rates this year, possibly as early as May. But its policy committee unanimously voted to keep the key rate at 0.5 percent earlier this month.
  • The Bank of Japan announced it is keeping its key rate steady at -0.1 percent.

In all cases — The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the BofE, the BOJ, and the Bank of Australia — central bankers said they expected to raise rates more in the near future. Even at the Bank of Japan, which has been especially dovish and pro-QE in recent years, the bank scaled back QE a tiny bit:

After years of blistering asset purchases, the Bank of Japan disclosed today that total assets on its balance sheet actually inched down by ¥444 billion ($3.9 billion) from the end of November to ¥521.416 trillion on December 31. While small, it was the first month-end to month-end decline since the Abenomics-designed “QQE” kicked off in late 2012.

The Bank of Canada has perhaps been the most aggressive at raising rates, with three rate hikes since July.

But, in all cases, rates remain well below where they were in 2008 before the financial crisis. We’re now entering the tenth year of low-low interest-rate policy and Quantitative Easing. And even though we’re hearing constantly about how the global economy is red hot, it appears the most central banks are still reluctant to get anywhere near what might be properly called “normalization.”

One big exception to the claims of more rate hikes is the European Central Bank which isn’t even talking about optimism at this point. Unlike other central banks, the ECB is already saying it might have to miss its self-imposed deadlines for unwinding QE:

The European Central Bank’s top economist has warned that its bond-buying efforts will have to continue beyond the planned deadline of September, if inflation does not pick up.

Inflation has remained well short of the central bank’s target of close to, but below, 2pc in recent years. Monthly data released at the end of January revealed that prices had risen by 1.3pc, the lowest reading since July 2017. The ECB has also warned that it expects inflation to slow in the next few months.

The European economy continues to be nothing to write home about, but even if things were better, it’s hard to see how the ECB, faced with so many debt heavy regimes in Europe, would be willing to raise interest rates and put European governments on the hook for higher payments on their debts.

Using their conventional measures of inflation, central banks continue to see muted growth, which is partly why they refuse to budge much on their QE and key rates. Asset prices, however, continue to rise, with home prices reaching new highs in the US and — until this week, at least — stock prices were moving up rapidly.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s broader measure of price inflation shows inflation at an 11-year high. 

With interest rates so far below where they were at the beginning of the last financial crisis, it’s hard to see where central banks will go the next time a recession hits. The likely outcome is only small movement in interest rates, with more reliance on central-banks buying assets.

The Fed’s Bill Dudley, however, maintains that the economy is still strong, and there’s plenty of time and room to bring rates up. This week’s mini-crash was only “small potatoes” according to Dudley.

Here are the specific key rates discussed here, with links: 

About the author:
*Ryan McMaken
 (@ryanmcmaken) is the editor of Mises Wire and The Austrian. Send him your article submissions, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado, and was the economist for the Colorado Division of Housing from 2009 to 2014. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute

Nationalism Vs Cosmopolitanism – Analysis

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This essay is composed of three parts. It seeks to understand the theoretical difference between nationalism and cosmopolitanism by examining the core assumptions of nationalism and cosmopolitanism in the first part. The second part examines the main points of convergence and divergence between the two seemingly opposing notions. And the third part is an attempt to find points of convergence between nationalism and cosmopolitanism.

It is widely believed that nationalism and cosmopolitanism are two conflicting notions. Mostly, cosmopolitanism is portrayed as a solution to problems of nationalism. This contradictory and complex interpretation of the two concepts (nationalism and cosmopolitanism) leads to two major research questions that are discussed in the essay. Is cosmopolitanism a complete antithesis or solution of nationalism? Can nationalism and cosmopolitanism be compatible with each other?

Nationalism seeks to coalesce culturally, religiously and linguistically diverse population. Similarly, it promotes the legitimacy of the state to change the concept of nationalism in form of nurturing consensus on the common values of the majority population. It is regarded as a political doctrine which is used interchangeably with terms such as discrimination, the xenophobia that appears completely opposite to cosmopolitanism. Some of the forms of nationalism encourage rigid definition of a ‘nation’, which excludes those who are not part of a narrowly defined concept or ethnically different. In other words, those who do not fit into the specific domain of a ‘nation’ are not given the rights of a citizen. As a result, labels of ‘outsiders’ or ‘others’ are projected that can become a source of ethnic conflicts in states.

With the emergence of transnational, non-state actors and multiple levels of communication across the world, the focus of the theorist has brought cosmopolitanism back to the limelight. The advocates of cosmopolitan thought criticize the artificial state boundaries constructed in the world that deepens the differences between the ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’. To put simply, cosmopolitanism claims to concern with the eradication of economic, social and cultural difference among the people as well as an emphasis on creating conditions for the harmonious world. More so, it attempts to implement a set of ethical values universal to the global population. For example, the commitment to human rights, as defined by the United Nations Organization (UNO) is an appropriate example to understand the assumptions of cosmopolitanism. According to C. Beitz, Thomas W. Pogge and Brain Barry, the philosophy of cosmopolitanism lies in the three main principles; egalitarian individualism, that is, all humans are free and equal beings; Principle of reciprocal recognition, each person has an equal stake in this universal ethical realm and is, accordingly required to respect all other people’s status as a basic unit of moral interest; Principle of impartial moral reasoning requires that each person should enjoy the impartial treatment of their claims – that is, treatment based on principles upon which all could act‟. 1

In Pogge’s view, the failure to reduce the levels of poverty contributes in not only increasing the condition for crimes, but the economic deprivation drives the people towards systematic violence. From the point view of critics, nationalism is based upon the notion that encourages the sentiment of superiority, especially when it comes to the group dynamics. Simply put, one group may discriminate another group over a range of factors. For instance, particular ethnic groups in Myanmar, the Buddhist monks are exploiting the religious and ethnic difference, which leads to discrimination of Rohingya in addition to campaigns of ethnic cleansing.

Comparatively speaking, cosmopolitanism underlines the individualistic attitude towards world while nationalism encompasses a political program as an outcome of an individual’s choice. For the proponents of cosmopolitanism, the aim is to promote rationality by providing people with freedom, equality, and ethical values. Though the jurisdiction of cosmopolitanism goes beyond the national boundaries, but when it comes to nationalism, the jurisdiction is confined within the local boundaries of a state.

To be specific, nationalism and cosmopolitanism both inevitably diverge to a large extent. For instance, Maximilien Robespierre (1758-94) viewed cosmopolitan ideas about the universal rights of the man quite selectively, emphasizing them only when they coincided with his view of the national interest.2

Likewise, advocates of cosmopolitanism view nationalism as a negative phenomenon as it projects values of domination over minority group in a systemic manner. This implies that nationalistic tendency can stoke the tension when it comes to the preferential attitude of one individual or group over another. As far as the criticism of cosmopolitanism is concerned, it is believed that the rationality cannot be devoid of myopic factors. Even though the focus on the universal values can impede the nationalistic tendency, however, this very potential is considered as the solution to the narrow set of values upheld by the nationalists. Therefore, cosmopolitans advocate for a bigger platform to promote the universal set of values.

One of the basic differences between nationalism and cosmopolitanism underscores the chauvinistic values and these are fostered when the identity of one state is presented superior to other states. The idea of American Exceptionalism is a good example to understand this. Likewise, the incident of Charlottesville Virginia unraveled the hostility between the white supremacist and anti-racist protestors. This is to say that differences in belief and dispositions are exaggerated to bolster the claims of one group over another. Arguably, nationalism has the greater potential of turning into a conflict that can ultimately lead to war in comparison to cosmopolitanism. Hence, fewer chances of conflict among the diverse group of people as well as claims of peaceful coexistence; tolerance are some of the prominent merits of cosmopolitanism.

Even though nationalism and ethnic particularism are closely intertwined, however, nationalism can be improved to develop an all-inclusive identity of states. In other words, few types of nationalism have the potential to broaden the definition of a nation, which can act as a bridge to formulate a nuanced approach. On the other hand, cosmopolitanism seems to possess positive connotations attached to main assumptions. For instance, if one compares nationalism with cosmopolitanism, the latter seeks to minimize the chances of difference as well as respect for the rights of others. Despite the apparent difference in the assumptions of nationalism and cosmopolitanism, when it comes application of principles, both (nationalism and cosmopolitanism) stress upon the significance of natural rights. Second, nationalist and cosmopolitan concern with political power in order to make the assumptions accepted at the global level. Both the theories are in favor of human rights and non-intervention that can provide an effective option to reduce tension between them.

Both nationalism and cosmopolitanism project democratic norms, but nationalism restricts itself at a national level that cannot bring a broader change. However, cosmopolitan assumptions involve application and expansion at the global level rather than limiting it within specific territorial boundaries. From the cosmopolitan perspective, individuals are independent of any discrimination especially based on the color, creed etc. In simple words, when people possess the right to choose the representatives by casting votes according to their free will, it can help to mitigate the negative effects and repercussions of nationalism. In comparison to cosmopolitanism, nationalism does accommodate diversity but only domestically. In other words, it is confined within the national boundaries since it lays emphasis on the security of national territory rather than the safety of the citizens.

Of course, the interpretation of nationalism and cosmopolitanism varies from society to society; however, it does not mean that a broad consensus between the nationalist and proponents of cosmopolitanism cannot be achieved. From a normative perspective, the focus on global equality can play a significant role in bridging the gap between the two completely contradictory ideas of nationalism and cosmopolitanism. An emphasis on the sense of obligation to safeguard the interests of others asserted by the nationalist can serve as a strong point of reconciliation. Cosmopolitan values such as the basic tenets of global equality and human rights at the individual level can be extended to state and systemic level. Simply put, if consensus on certain humanist values can be reached at the national level, it implies that those values can be broadened beyond the national values towards the goal of cosmopolitanism. The support for the International Criminal Court (ICC), for instance, is a step towards global justice. By supporting this initiative, democratic nationalism can contribute to the strengthening of cosmopolitan values at a global level. Similarly, the focus of nationalism on the responsibility and concern for the fellow nationals can be broadened to include the values of freedom, social justice endorsed by the cosmopolitan theorist.

In case of Mauritius, for example, people have devised a middle to tackle the cultural difference and avoid conflict. Despite the ideological clash at the individual level, they have reconciled national political power through the exercise of equality and tolerance. The openness of Mauritian discourse, public and private – in particular, the fact that ethnic conflicts and cultural differences are acknowledged everywhere as facts of social life, coupled with the absence of a hegemonic ethnic – indicate the kind of inter-ethnic compromise realized in Mauritius. 3 This does not mean the broad points of contradictions between ideologies of ethnicity and nationalism at the individual level of action are absent; however; the paradoxes are to a great extent reconciled on the national and political level.

Furthermore, it would not be wrong to claim that the respect for difference and robust framework to safeguard the individual rights can cultivate conditions for reconciliation. After all, an individual is a part of a specific group or a community that cannot be isolated from others. So, an individual depends on the other members in order to guarantee one’s right. In one way, two different levels of rights overlap each other. Democratic nationalism lays stress on safeguard of the right of nations to exist and develop while recognizing and respecting internal diversity, it rejects the territorial expansion of nations by promoting social justice, freedom, equality. Therefore, nationalism could be compatible with cosmopolitanism if one focuses on the commitment to common values and inclusion of differences

The belief that all individuals are equal and free regardless of their ethnic and national identity is another point to manage tensions between different ideologies, groups, and individuals. To conclude, the inclusion of human coexistence in the interest of states can help to complement the goals of nationalism and cosmopolitanism rather than the exclusionist approach. In addition, the process of integration can be achieved by granting political rights in order to decrease the chances of conflict as well as addressing the repercussions of preferential attitude. Lastly, it would not harm to include new ideas into an inward-looking approach bounded by the borders of the nations, as minorities prefer to live in a state that provides the political rights and respect for differences.

About the author:
*Iqra Mobeen Akram
works as a researcher at an Islamabad-based think tank.

Source:
1. Thomas Winfried Menko Pogge, “Priorities of Global Justice,” The Global Transformations Reader Polity Press Cambridge, 2003, 2nd edition, p. 550
2. Michael Rapport, “Robespierre and the Universal Rights of Man, 1789-1794,”French History, Vol. 10, no. 3, 303-333.
3. Michael Rapport, “Robespierre and the Universal Rights of Man, 1789-1794,”French History, Vol. 10, no. 3, 303-333.

Majority Of 8-12-Year Olds Subject To Online Threats

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Fifty-six per cent of 8-12 year olds are exposed to at least one online-related challenge when using digital platforms, a new survey published today finds. Challenges include a host of threats, from cyberbullying, video game addiction, offline meetings and online sexual behaviours which has also been linked to digital identity theft, digital disinformation and reduced human empathy. The data also highlights that 47% of those in the sample studied have been victimized through cyber-bullying in the past year.

The report is a multi-nation study of online child safety and digital citizenship, based on a sample size of 34,000 schoolchildren aged between eight and 12 years, across 29 countries. While 56% represents a global average, threats to children are more widespread in emerging economies where the risks are 33% higher. This is in large part due to the fast adoption of mobile technology and digital platform use without adequate and appropriate preparation for children.

Additional results concluded that 8-12-year olds spend an average of 32 hours per week in front of digital screens for entertainment alone – longer than the time children spend in school. The study also confirmed a significant positive association between screen time and exposure to cyberbullying, video game addiction, offline meetings and online sexual behaviours.

The purpose of the report is to highlight the need for concerted action by government, industry and civil society to help parents counter the threats facing the youngest “digital citizens”. Such a need is especially acute, the report finds, given the rapid increase in internet penetration in emerging economies, which will account for 90% of all new child “surfers” between now and 2020.

The 2018 DQ Impact Report is published by the DQ Institute, a multistakeholder coalition committed to improving digital education, culture and innovation through cross-sector collaboration in association with the World Economic Forum. Since partnering with the World Economic Forum in 2017, it has reached over 600,000 children in 15 languages across more than 30 countries, including Australia, China, Egypt, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Nepal, Nigeria, Oman, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Thailand, Turkey, the UK and the US.

“Today’s youth make up an important part of our informed society; they will be tomorrow’s voters and our future leaders. Ensuring they are better equipped to face the challenges of hyperconnected life, earlier on, should be a societal priority. The Forum believes that it has an effective platform to augment and accelerate concrete action towards a more sustainable flow of information and content that empowers society,” said Cheryl Martin, Managing Director, Head of Industries and Member of the Managing Board at the World Economic Forum

“We must act quickly and take positive steps to help these children facing cyber-risks around the world, especially in ICT-emerging countries. From an early age, our children’s use of social media through personal mobile phones has been excessive. We need to work together to help our children outsmart cyber-risks and become successful and responsible digital citizens who maximize their potential and minimize cyber-risks.” said Yuhyun Park, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of the DQ Institute, Singapore.

“We need to set the global standard for online child protection and digital citizenship for all children. This goal is only possible through the shared vision and passion of so many people, all working together with one heart and mind to help children have future-ready DQ skills to navigate the digital world,” said Esteban Bullrich, Senator, National Congress of Argentina.

Northeast India: Urging Media Accountability – OpEd

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As the alternate media expands its reaches to hundred thousand Indians across the country, thanks to increasingly cheaper internet connectivity, its restraint and liability also start surfacing in public discourses. The limitation and gradually losing credibility of the mainstream media may pave the way for a boosting alternate media, but it is still miles apart from the trustworthiness among users.

In fact, voluminous media coverage in Assam following the relentless rumour, continued uncertainty and inherent fear had recently resulted in the elimination of two innocent lives along with severe injuries to few others and also stranding of thousand railway passengers for days in different isolated locations.

The rumour of incorporating many parts of Assam including the Dima Hasao district in the greater Nagaland (Nagalim) continued to hunt the people of Assam since the virtual end of Naga movements. The proposed Nagalim continues to claim many areas of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur and also northern Myanmar localities.

The uncertainty over the government actions remains fully intact as the content of Naga Framework Agreement is yet to be made public. The Union government in New Delhi signed the agreement on 3 August 2015 with the influential Naga armed outfit (Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-IM), when Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself announced the peace deal through the social media.

With this background of anxiety and worries, a report was published in a reputed portal (https://thewire.in/215195/revealed-rss-draft-plan-nagaland-accord/) indicating that Dima Hasao district in central Assam may be incorporated in Nagalim. The contributor Sangeeta Barooah Pisharoty in her report titled ‘Revealed: RSS Draft Plan for Nagaland Accord’ quoted Jagdamba Mal, an understood Rashrtiya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) ideologue based in Nagaland for decades and tried to authenticate it.

The trouble-stricken Dima Hasao, which is an autonomous district constituted under the sixth schedule of the Indian constitution, homes to Dimasa tribe people with a sizable Naga population. Since Eighties, the district witnessed various ethnic insurgent outfits and most notorious was the Jewel Garlosa led Dima Halam Daogah, which once terrorized the entire district.

The content of TheWire might have reached to few readers, but the same story was reproduced by a section of local (read Assamese) newspapers and satellite news channels to attract the attention of hundred thousand residents of the State. Soon the resentments among the Dimasa people about their inclusion in Nagalim surfaced and it grew abruptly.

Various agitating Dimasa groups including the Jadikhe Naisho Hoshom, All Dimasa Students Union, Dimasa Mother Association and Dimasa Women Society etc called for a series of protest rallies across the hills district, where the local political party representatives also participated. The agitators demanded a clarification from the governments over the matter at the earliest.

One such public protest in front of Maibong railway station on 25 January turned violent. The police resorted to firings as the protesters started vandalism at the railway properties. Two tribal agitators namely Mithunjay Dibragede and Prabin Hakmaosa were killed in police firings, where as ten others received injuries. The killings were condemned widely and strikes continued in the district for days which resulted in stranding of thousand railway passengers from southern Assam with Tripura to Guwahati.

Three State ministers namely Chandra Mohan Patowary, Keshab Mahanta and Porimal Suklavaidya visited the trouble-torn district to take stock of the situation. They also met the victim families and assured possible government supports at the earliest.
Amidst the chaos, Assam chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal invited a group of Dimasa civil society representatives and reiterated the government’s stand that not a single inch of Assam land would be ceded for Nagalim. Assuring the delegation of civil society groups in presence of Dima Hasao Autonomous Council chief Debalal Garlosa on 30 January, Sonowal categorically stated that the State’s territorial integrity would not be harmed.

Mentioning about his telephonic conversations with the Union home minister Rajnath Singh, the chief minister declared that even no satellite council or special development authority of Nagalim would also be allowed in Assam. Sonowal informed that necessary steps were taken to provide appropriate government jobs to close relatives of both the victims (of police firings) and free treatment to those injured in the incident.

The State government has already constituted a one man committee headed by the State’s additional chief secretary VB Pyarelal to inquire into the circumstances that led to violence and subsequent police firings. Public angers however continued for days and it was visible in a massive protest rally organized at Maibong locality later in presence of AASU adviser Samujjal Bhattacharya, ABSU general secretary Pramod Boro with many others.

Jagdamba Mal, who is facing a formal police complaint in Assam, lately clarified that he personally put some suggestions to settle the six decade long Naga antipathy, but the concerned reporter blew the content ‘out of proportion’. Mal declared that he was not a RSS member. So his suggestions were ‘nothing to do with the RSS or the BJP governments’.

India, out of its over one billion population, houses nearly 200 million smart-phone users. As the internet connections turn relatively cheaper in the country, more and more upper and middleclass nationals start possessing the net connection and it finally helps growing the number of alternate media browsers.

Meanwhile, expressing serious concern over the recent unpleasant incidents in Dima Hasao following few media contents, a scribe’s forum appealed to the common people to be judicious over reacting to media reports. Demanding a regulatory authority over the alternate media, the Journalists’ Forum Assam (JFA) also urged the government to empower the press council with the inclusion of electronic and social media.

“While the concerned portal should have reported the matter with right perspective, the vernacular news outlets must have authenticated the facts before publishing the news item,” said Rupam Barua, president of JFA.

He also added that those newspapers might have recognized the news portals as trustworthy as the established news agencies and so found it logical to use the content of the portal over a sensitive issue without verification. Once we have a powerful media council, Barua asserted that this kind of flaws could be addressed more efficiently.

Gwadar Vs Chabahar – OpEd

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The geo-strategic situation of South Asia region is changing rapidly, which can be attributed to the fact that the world powers are now redefining their roles in the region. Old loyalties are changing and new alliances are being formed.

In the post-cold war era, the proximity of our region to the oil rich heartland i.e.
Central Asia as well as being part of the relatively recently derived concept of the “greater middle eastern region” have changed the region’s political dynamics.

New alliances and pacts are coming up among nations at the regional as well as the global levels, befitting their economic, political and other interests.

Pakistan’s signing of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with China is a milestone of economic cooperation between the two countries.

It is expected that this corridor would boost Pakistan’s ailing economy in the years to come.

Gwadar, a strategic warm water deep sea port located on the Southwestern coast of Pakistan in the Baluchistan Province is the geographic center of gravity of the CPEC. The strategic location of Gwadar located at the junction of the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman can be defined by its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz; a key maritime route to the oil producing region.

Gwadar is located about 700 km from Karachi and about 75 km from Iranian port Chahbahar.

It is connected to Chinese city of Kashgar with land distance of about 2,000 km through the Karakorum Highway in Pakistan.

China is heavily dependent on Gulf oil; about 60% of the oil comes from the Gulf for which the ships have to traverse a distance of about 16000 km to her only commercial port, Chinghai, through the Indian and Pacific Oceans which takes about three months.

Gwadar, besides providing an opportunity to China to substantially reduce the time and distance to transport oil from the Persian Gulf to China by road, would also ensure its continuous flow through all weather conditions round the year.

Additionally, it would also facilitate China to use the route other way round by exporting her goods to the Middle Eastern countries and the rest of the world as part of her “21st Century Silk Road Initiative”.

It is for this reason that China is providing about 80% of the cost of the port at Gwadar.
It has also been reported in the media that Pakistan is providing a naval base to China which could lead to domination of the oil rich Persian Gulf.

US’s and Indian anguish about this project can thus be clearly understood, along with any attempts/desires to sabotage this project by one means or the other.

Iran's Chabahar Port at night. Photo Credit: Ksardar1359, Wikipedia Commons.
Iran’s Chabahar Port at night. Photo Credit: Ksardar1359, Wikipedia Commons.

Chahbahar is the Iran’s Southernmost port city on the Gulf of Oman, which is the best access point to the Indian Ocean.

It is part of the Iranian Sistan- Baluchistan Province, bordering Pakistani Baluchistan.
Iran is planning to use this port for transshipment to Afghanistan and Central Asia whereas it desires to keep the port of Bandar Abbas exclusive for trade with Europe and Russia as a major hub.

The Chabahar port is connected to Iran’s national highways network and a railway track is also being laid.

Iran, with the help of the Chabahar Agreement with India is thus facilitating Indian access to the gas and oil resources of Iran and Central Asia.

India is helping Iran with an amount of $85 million to develop Chabahar port to get access to Central Asia through Milak (Iran)-Zaranj-Dilaram (Afghanistan) roads.
India is already in the process of developing Zaranj and Dilaram roads in Afghanistan, forming a ring road to connect Central Asia with the Middle East.

India is also planning to connect to the oil resources of Turkmenistan by laying a pipeline through Afghanistan on to Iran and Gujrat through the Arabian Sea. This way India would be able to bypass Pakistan, which provides a much shorter route for the Asian Development Bank’s proposed project TAPI (Turkmenistan–Afghanistan- Pakistan-India) for transporting the Caspian Sea gas resources to India without any potential interruption from Pakistan.

While both India and Pakistan are vehemently trumpeting the Chabahar and Gwadar agreements and trying to undermine each other, the fact remains that Gwadar holds an edge over Chahbahar for its utility, geographic location to dominate the maritime waters, and its proximity with China due to the road link.

Chabahar is not located in the Indian Ocean Region where India’s other functional ports like; Mumbai, Kolkata and Goa are located having the cover of the Indian Navy to ensure their maritime operations.

Unfortunate for India, the proximity of Gwadar to Chahbahar (only 72 kms) with the former in a Pakistan Navy dominated area would always remain an irritant for her.
Additionally, if Gwadar Port is handed over to China by Pakistan, India’s ordeal would further increase.

Although Afghanistan is a partner in the Indian trade agreement of Chahbahar, the signatory is the Afghan government which does not exercise its command and control over a large portion of Afghanistan, especially the Afghan Mujahideen controlled Southern Afghanistan region.

The Mujahideen do not have any commonality of interest with India, whereas Pakistan has connections with major tribal groups in Afghanistan and has some influence on them.

Indian convoys could therefore be subjected to their attacks, creating a big question on the security of the Indian mercantile traffic passing through Afghanistan.

All of this would also be in the backdrop of Pakistan’s role to undermine the project when it enters Afghanistan as against the Indian clandestine operations to sabotage CPEC, of which the recent arrest of Indian Navy Commander Kulbshan jadhav from Baluchistan, who was planted by Indian RAW for the purpose, is prime evidence.

Although the US has recently lifted its economic embargo on Iran which dates back to 2012, it continues to impose other sanctions over Iran’s alleged “human rights policies and support for terrorism”.

These sanctions bar American citizens and companies from most forms of investment or trade with the country.

Iran’s policies on Israel and its role in the Middle Eastern crisis are at complete odds with those of the West.

Gwadar however, has no such problems. Pakistan has had a longstanding tried and tested relationship with China. The two countries have already worked jointly on economic, social, military and other projects.

Their economic, military, strategic goals are more or less aligned, which has led to a great understanding and trust between the peoples of two countries.

Working together for the CPEC in the future should not pose a major challenge for them. Conversely, in the case of India and Iran the element of trust and understanding are absent. Iran shares a border with Pakistan and has ancient religious and cultural ties with Pakistan.

Iran is not expected to fall prey to the Modi’s traditional animosity for Pakistan as it would not disappoint more than 25% of the population of Pakistan who hold Iran in very high esteem, more or less as a religious center.

Thus Iran is supporting its neighbor Pakistan on Gwadar as against India which is not on good terms with her neighbor, China.

The CPEC which is already well on the road to success, is a natural alliance between two neighboring countries whereas the Chahbahar agreement is a very ambitious plan by India for which India has to face difficulties at all stages.

It’s time for India to redefine her priorities in the region in the changing world of today. India can undoubtedly benefit from the shortest route to Central Asia through Pakistan provided she makes an effort to remove her irritants with Pakistan by resolving the Kashmir problem and abandoning the traditional animosity with Pakistan and live like good neighbors rather than investing in ambitious.

*Imran Shahani has a Masters in International Relations from National Defence University Islamabad.


India’s Unmanned Armed Vehicle (UAV) Capabilities – OpEd

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Technology has made it possible for humans to inflict wrath, fire and fury with bullets and firepower without even being physically present. Unmanned Armed Vehicles (UAV) is one such invention that gets the credit for relieving the human generation from facing the direct impact of their doings. However, simultaneously it is humans who should be credited for their invention that saved them the inconvenience of experiencing bullets and firepower.

In the 21st Century, war fighting and intelligence gathering techniques have changed a lot. Now many countries are using UAV technology for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, target acquisition and target destruction. Even in an underdeveloped region like South Asia, UAV or drones is not some alien word. South Asia became accustomed to this technology due to its use by the US in War on Terrorism. Now both major arms race competitors (India-Pakistan) in South Asia possess this technology. Nonetheless, due to the strict international arms control mechanism, the acquisition of this technology is not an easy path.

However, Indian accession in Arms Control and Non-proliferation regimes in last 2 years will bring significant changes in development of UAV technology in South Asia. One fact to reckon here is that UAV is dual use technology and its export protocol is strictly followed under the guidelines of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and Wassenaar Arrangement.

If general arms race pattern of South Asia is to be analyzed, it is India that leads and Pakistan follows to avoid security dilemma. With Indian accession into the MTCR and Wassenaar Arrangement now all kind of dual use technologies will be accessible to it. Both these regimes control technologies including space satellites, sophisticated cameras and drone technologies. MTCR and Wassenaar Arrangement forbid its members from the spread of dual use technologies, hence India in order to gain access to both regimes agreed to utilize these technologies only for its own domestic military requirements

Moreover, India’s official Joint Force Military Doctrine’s obsession with the Surgical Strikes indicates that India will opt for the means that will facilitate such strikes. As it will be impossible for India to send troops across the working boundary or LOC, so to put practicality into its plan drones are quite a viable option. The reason behind acceleration in India’s UAV capability is the hawkish attitude of Indian establishment. As Modi-Doval Doctrine wants India to have a hard power that could be used even against sub-conventional threats (cross-border terrorism) when times call for it.

India is not new to UAV technology as for quite some time India is operating Israeli Searcher and Heron Drones for not only command, control and communications but for intelligence, reconnaissance and target acquisition. Previously used drones by India’s armed forces didn’t have the capability to fire missile. Thus, to change this predicament India developed a Medium Altitude, Long Endurance (MALE) drone with ability to fire missile, known as Rustom 1. The missile Rustom 1 is integrated with locally developed anti-tank missile HELINA, which depicts the anti-armor capabilities. So far this drone is paired with Indian Navy and Rustom II is also under development for Indian Naval forces.

In the century of communication network and satellites every single technology relates to the other. Indian Satellite Based Augmentations (SABS) are not only satellite systems for local communications but they would strengthen UAVs capability to receive refined signals for precision vertical guidance to assist planes in safe landing. Satellite capabilities are the key for better UAV technologies. Indian SAB systems would enable its UAVs to operate over larger area and will navigate them to return. In addition, Indian Army is launching designated military satellites that are enabling its UAV program.

As for now only the Indian Navy possess locally build missile carrier drone but the stage is all set for Indian land forces to acquire their own UCAVs. With its increased power and access to more resources Indian UCAV will become more stealthy and lethal.

Pakistan which is mostly a reluctant follower in South Asian arms race needs to focus on the technology that is necessary to run UAVs, which is the satellite system of its own. Pakistan’s Buraq and its missile BARQ are extraordinary achievements considering Pakistan’s technological and economic restrains. But, in the longer run without its own military and communication satellite C4ISR and ISTAR programs cannot enter into the next phase.

*Ahyousha Khan is a Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad.

India’s Quest For A Ballistic Missile Defence Shield – OpEd

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A Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system is a system that defends any country against possible incoming missile threat. It intercepts targets and destroys enemy missile enroute. A BMD missile flights through three phases: boosts, mid-course and terminal. Usually the radar of the BMD missile intercepts the missile from the opponent’s side, then tracks the target through command and control system and finally fires the interceptor missile from the launcher truck.

Other countries that have advanced missile system include the US, Russia, Israel and China. The leading BMD systems in the world are Patriot Advanced Capability-3, THAAD, S-400 Triumf and S-500. India with its aspirations for regional dominance has been trying to develop an indigenous (BMD) system since the late 90s with the start of Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP).

The Indian BMD programme is structured as a two-tiered system with Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) for high altitude interception and Advanced Air Defence (AAD). PAD is a two-stage missile: a solid-fuel motor and liquid fuel propeller. It works with the inertial guidance navigation system with mid-course updates from the Long-Range Tracking Radar (LRTR) and active radar homing in the terminal phase. Moreover PAD is also capable of tracking 200 targets at a range of 600 km, with a maximum interception altitude of 80 km in exo-thermic-in space range.

In its quest for acquiring the Missile Defence System (MDS), India has developed Ballistic Missile System that could intercept missiles in not only endo-atmosphere i.e. within the earth’s atmosphere, but can also intercept in the exo-atmosphere. However this advancement of Indian BMD and Air Defence System (ADS) is not merely the fruits of Indian efforts. Countries like Russia, Israel and the US helped India while providing it with an access to sophisticated technology in order to advance its MDS.

Recently India plans to buy 131 surface-to-air missiles from Israel at the cost of US$70 million (S$93 million), as per the Indian Defence Ministry press release issued on January 2, 2018. The BARAK missiles made by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defence Systems are to be used aboard India’s first locally built aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, which is under construction. Previously in April 2017 India and Israel signed a deal worth around US$2 billion which includes medium-range surface-to-air missiles. Israel has become a major defence supplier to India, selling an average of US$1 billion worth of military equipment each year.

Moreover not only relying on Israeli missiles, India signed an inter-governmental agreement with Russia for the purchase of the S-400s in October 2016. The estimated worth of the contract is US$ 4.5 billion. The S-400 is technologically one of the most advanced Missile Air Defence System in the world. The S-400 system is armed with the capacity which enables it to engage with the stand-off jammer and Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft including both ballistic and cruise missiles.

India has been briefed about the Patriot III under the long-term strategic partnership with US. It was also the view of the analyst that India might buy Patriot III from US. But the matter of the fact is that how many systems India will acquire for its Ballistic Missile Defence Shields (BMDS) because no Ballistic Missile (BM) can guarantee 100 percent interception and destruction of incoming missile. Although India is learning about the new technologies for the creation of its BMDS but its previous record of building the indigenous weapon system is not very encouraging. The best examples are the failed Arjun Main Battle Tank (MBT), the rejected Indian New Small Arms System (INSAS) rifle, and most recently Indian indigenously built SSBN Arihant which went critical twice.

Although Indian BMDS is particularly designed against Pakistan however, alternatively it would not be wrong to say that India might not be able to defend itself from Pakistan’s missiles. Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Centre’s Non-Proliferation Programme says “despite heavy investments in developing anti-ballistic missile systems, India may not be able to fully defend itself in a conflict from strikes by Pakistani missiles”. This is true that India has been signing defence deals of millions of US dollars with Israel and it aims to acquire S-400 from Russia as well. Yet, it lacks a sophisticated BMD system which could defend it from incoming Ababeel Multiple Independent Reentry targetable Vehicles (MIRV) of Pakistan.

Subsequently Indian Ballistic missile system will give a false sense of security. Already according to a rough estimate South Asian region has one-third of the total world’s ballistic missile capability. In such a complex and volatile environment, India’s quest for BMDS will lead India with a false sense of security and might compel India to go for a nuclear first strike. Hence such a scenario undermines the strategic stability of the whole region.

*Qura tul ain Hafeez has done M Phil in international relations from Quaid-I Azam University Islamabad. She is currently working as a Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad. She can be reached at Quraathashmi@gmail.com

The Dreadful Face Of Pakistani Judicial System – OpEd

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It is rightly said that the existence of infidelity and misleading in the country is not as dangerous as absence of justice. Undoubtedly the act of infidelity and misleading is disliked. But despite that, it is possible to establish peace and security in the country. However, when the foundations of justice are broken apart, it leads to mutual dispute, retaliatory reaction and then to the jeopardy befalling the social security.

Before proceeding, let us take some incidents into consideration. According to media reports, the 36-year-old Raymond Davis was winding through the Lahore traffic in his Honda Civic when he stopped at a red light and shot dead two bike riders (January 27, 2011). Fahim Shamshad 26, died on the spot. As per the detailed report of the Guardian, Davis got out of his car and took aim at the 22-year-old Faizan Haider, who had started escaping. A postmortem reported that Faizan Haidar was hit three times in the front and twice in the back. The eyewitnesses present at the nearby revealed that Davis started to photograph the dead men. They were greatly shocked at the killer who was still very peaceful and confidently present at the spot. Meanwhile Davis called his colleagues for help. While they were trying to reach the spot by a Toyota Land Cruiser, they hit and killed a bike rider, then pressed on. Raymond Davis was arrested. Protestors started to course through the entire country, demanding punishment to Davis. And the widow of Faheem committed suicide by swallowing rat poison. This incident resulted in four deaths. All the evidences and investigations easily proved the crime of Raymond Davis. However it was reported that as per the Pakistani judicial system, the killer paid the victims’ families $2.4 million. Then Raymond Davis was released and he immediately left Pakistan for his country.

Similarly, during the night of 24 December 2012, Shahzeb Khan’s sister was on her way back home from their sister’s Walima reception. She was eve-teased by the servant of Talpur family Ghulam Murtuza Lashari. The girl called her parents but her brother Shahzeb soon arrived. This resulted in a fight between Shahzeb Khan and Murtuza Lashari. Shahzeb Khan’s parents somehow reconciled the matter. After the fight had ended, Shahrukh Jatoi and Siraj traced Shahzeb again and gunned him down. He was still alive but when Ghulam Murtuza Lashari and Sajjad Ali Talpur went and saw him alive, they came and told Shah Rukh Jatoi. Then again Shahrukh went to Shahzeb Khan and fired bullets at him. Initially no arrests were made; which led to massive protests throughout the country. This finally made the people think that the killer belonged to a famous and powerful family which had influenced the administration and that it was therefore not working effectively.

Nevertheless, under public pressure, proceedings started against criminals. Ghulam Murtuza and Sajjad Talpur were arrested. But Shahrukh Jatoi, the main accused in the case, had fled to Dubai, but was later arrested and brought back to Pakistan. The court sentenced two criminals to life imprisonment and Shahrukh to death. In short, after proving their crime, it is surprisingly enough that all the three criminals were released, only because they had made letter of reconciliation with the victim’s family and presented it to the court. How this letter of reconciliation was made is best known to Allah Almighty. However, the statements of the victim’s parents reveal many secrets. The deceased’s mother Anbarin says, “Our son had died now and we do not want to spend all our life in fear, so we have forgiven them.” Thus the three criminals got out of the prison, making a sign of victory.

Let us read one more heart-wrenching story. In June 2011, Sarfraz Shah 22 was shot dead in Clifton Park in Karachi. Coincidentally a TV channel team had also placed a camera which recorded the incident. The video cleanly shows that the young man was pleading for his life but Ranger Shahid Zafar pointed a gun at him and fired a bullet on his thigh. The victim can be seen screaming in pain and begging for help, but the brutal oppressor fired another bullet on his other thigh. There were three more Rangers standing near, but no one tried to save the victim. As per the collected information, he was taken to the hospital at a time when he had quickly died of blood loss.

Shahid Zafar, the main accused in the case, as well as Bahaur Rehman, Liaqat Ali, Muhammad Tariq, Manzar Ali and Afzal Khan were arrested. On October 12, 2011, Karachi’s anti-terrorist court sentenced Shahid Zafar to death and others to life imprisonment. The appeal was made in the High Court but the Judge rejected the appeal. Then the appeal was filed in the Supreme Court but the punishment continued. However, in the meantime the reconciliation agreement made by the deceased’s family was presented and thus in 2014, Shahid Zafar’s death sentence was converted into life imprisonment. Now it is reported that the Government authorities has petitioned the Pakistani President Mamoon Hussain for pardon for all the accused under the Article 45 of the constitution. According to some news sources, the President has granted the pardon.

Dear friends! In all the three aforementioned cases, the criminals were not only identified, but also proven guilty. All this happened after the steps of rigorous investigation and justice had been taken. Nevertheless, they have not yet been punished. There is no reason other than that the criminals are wealthy and politically strong. This fact associated with the Pakistani Judicial system piteously calls us to sense the ongoing situation in the country that the culprits having wealth and influence are respectfully acquitted in the cases of murderous crimes. This makes me worry about the unjust situation in which the criminals could easily get acquitted anytime, with support of their wealth and influence. Then why is it that the judicial litigations are played on the government’s heavy expenditure? Is it not better for the honourable judges to command first to determine the personality of the accused, as to whether he is rich or poor, extraordinary or ordinary?! This way will save Pakistan’s wealth as well as the precious time of the Courts!

It is rightfully said that all the rules, laws and constitutional provisions are implemented only for the poor and middle-class citizens. As for the famous political personalities and the people of wealth, they proudly enjoy many ways for getting themselves acquitted; sometimes by bribe, sometimes by threatening the deceased’s family, by paying the blood money and sometimes under external pressure!!! What a trickery wonder of the Times!

This article was published by New Age Islam.

Pelosi Is Indeed Irreplaceable – OpEd

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Rep. Nancy Pelosi is so committed to the rights of illegal immigrants that she took to the floor of the House two nights ago and spoke for 8 hours on their behalf. Yesterday, her performance drew the applause of Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post.

In her blog post, Tumulty noted that when Pelosi was finished, “she was still wearing the gunmetal-blue stilettos,” a feat (pun intended) that most men cannot appreciate. I said most.

Tumulty further noted that “the image of a 77-year-old woman holding her ground in four-inch heels was also a reminder of what makes Pelosi so hard to replace for the Democrats: her steel.”

I agree with Tumulty that Pelosi is indeed irreplaceable, but it is not her steel that is the key to her uniqueness: it is her intellect and Catholic bona fides.

In her 40-hour speech, Pelosi waxed eloquent. “Forty is a biblical number—you know, 40 years in the desert; 40 days for the Jews; 40 days in the desert for Christ; 40 days of Lent; 40 hours of Christian Catholic faith in the hours of devotion. I thought, oh my goodness, what a coincidence.”

This reminded me of another brilliant speech she gave in 2010.

“My favorite word is the Word, is the Word. And that is everything. It says it all for us. And you know the biblical reference. You know the gospel reference of the Word.

“And that Word is that—we have to give voice to what that means in terms of public policy that would be in keeping with the values of the Word. The Word. Isn’t it a beautiful word when you think of it? It just covers everything. The Word. Fill it in with anything you want. But, of course, we know it means that the Word was made flesh….”

You could search the world over and never find anyone quite like Nancy Pelosi. She really is irreplaceable.

Iran: Prosecutor General Orders To Summon Samsung Officials Over Gift Ban

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Iran’s Prosecutor General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri has ordered his deputy to summon Samsung officials to protest at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics organizers’ move to exclude Iranian athletes from the list of competitors receiving smartphones.

Following “the insulting move” by South Korea’s Samsung and its negative political and social effects at the international level, the director of the company in Iran should be summoned and explain about the issue, Montazeri said in an order released on Friday.

The senior judicial official further emphasized that in case the Samsung Electronics Co. pledges to compensate for “the spiritual damage” it has caused to Iran, a date should be determined and announced to the head office of the company.

The order came as Samsung, in a statement on Friday, rejected its involvement in the process to ban Iranian athletes from receiving its smartphones, saying that the International Olympic Committee (IOC) is responsible.

Earlier this week, media reports said that about 4,000 of Samsung Galaxy Note 8 were being given to athletes taking part in the Winter Games starting Friday in South Korea, but the athletes from Iran and North Korea would not get the gifts due to sanctions.

The news reports sparked outrage in Iran, prompting the country’s Foreign Ministry to summon the South Korean ambassador to Tehran and demand an apology.

Shortly afterwards, the IOC backed down on the decision to deny gift Samsung smartphones to both Iranian and North Korean athletes.

Iran is a key market for Samsung products in the Middle East, including smartphones and home appliances.

Macron Urges Putin To Help End Civilian Suffering In Syria

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By Syed Tausief Ausaf

French President Emmanuel Macron urged his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday to help ease civilian suffering caused by Syrian regime attacks on opposition positions.

In a telephone call, the French leader “asked Vladimir Putin to do everything so that the Syrian regime puts an end to the unbearable deterioration in the humanitarian situation in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib,” a statement said.

The opposition blamed Moscow, President Bashar Assad’s most powerful ally, for playing a dubious role. “There are parties in the Syrian conflict that are not interested in finding any solution or any decrease in tensions. Russia has taken the UN Security Council hostage without permitting any sort of penalty or punishment for the regime or stoppage of its violent raids,” Yahya Al-Aridi, opposition spokesman, told Arab News.

Russia, he said, is participating with its jets in attacks on markets and hospitals where civilians are being killed in their hundreds. “What we can do is once again call on the international community to stand up to the implementation of UN resolutions and stop aggressors from carrying out such brutal acts against civilians.”

Russia has intervened alongside Syrian regime forces in the civil war and Putin is seen as the foreign leader with the most influence over Assad. Fresh airstrikes hit the opposition enclave of Eastern Ghouta on Friday, AFP correspondents reported, the fifth straight day in a bombing campaign that has killed more than 220 civilians.

Macron added that he was “worried about indications suggesting the possible use of chlorine on several occasions against the civilian population in Syria these last few weeks.”

Al-Aridi said: “With the situation turning into an international case, all sorts of conflicting interests are being settled in the Syrian arena. Russia is angry with the US. They just use the Syrian arena to settle such accounts with no attention being paid to civilians.”

Diplomacy is making no progress toward ending a war that is approaching its eighth year, having killed hundreds of thousands of people and forced half the pre-war Syrian population of 23 million from their homes, with millions forced out as refugees.

“We are very worried. The airstrikes need to end,” French Defense Minister Florence Parly said on France Inter radio. “Civilians are the targets, in Idlib and in the east of Damascus. This fighting is absolutely unacceptable.”

Russia said on Thursday a cease-fire was unrealistic. The UN called on Tuesday for a humanitarian truce of at least one month to allow for aid deliveries and evacuations of the wounded.

In the north-western province of Idlib, Daesh terrorists clashed with Syrian insurgent factions on Friday, an opposition commander said, accusing pro-regime forces of opening a corridor for the radical militants to reach the region.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said regime forces had allowed the Daesh fighters to leave a besieged pocket of territory at the intersection of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama provinces, and to go to southern Idlib.

Al-Aridi said: “We believe that the coordination between Daesh and regime forces has been going on for a long time.”

He cited the example of Palmyra which was first taken by Daesh and then given back to the regime.

“Many a time, Daesh fighters have been given protection or corridors by the regime to attack the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and civilians. This is done in order to reduce the degree of attention on the regime’s crimes, he said. “In Idlib too, the regime has opened a corridor in order to put the FSA face to face with Daesh and let the Daesh fighter do all sorts of atrocities against civilians.”

Hasan Hajj Ali, commander of the Free Idlib Army, said his fighters were taking part in clashes with some 200 Daesh terrorists who had arrived in southern Idlib early on Friday.

“This morning at dawn we were surprised by the joint treachery by the regime and Daesh,” he told Reuters.

Al-Aridi said the opposition has been calling on the UN to stop the carnage in Eastern Ghouta. “The Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) had a meeting with Staffan de Mistura, UN special envoy (for Syria), on Feb. 7 where the issue was discussed and the Security Council will also be updated next week,” he said. “But every minute counts in Syria and Syrian time is blood.”

Philippines: Duterte Eyes Federalist Track To One-Man Rule – OpEd

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By Inday Espina-Varona*

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s federalism dream depends on a constitutional overhaul that temporarily concentrates executive, legislative and, indirectly, judicial powers in the hands of the mercurial strongman.

The Lower House of Congress has already approved a resolution convening Congress into a constituent assembly to revise the country’s constitution.

Duterte may banner federalism but proposed changes to the charter focus more on gifting legislators and local government officials with term extensions until May 2022. The proposals also allow the president de facto control over the legislature.

The transitory provisions advanced by Congress shut down the current legislature until a new constitution is ratified. Incumbent legislators, however, will be absorbed into a new federal parliament under Duterte’s control.

During the remainder of his term, Duterte will be able to kick out the current heads of constitutional and independent commissions, and even members of the lower courts, doing away with checks and balances to his rule.

Charter change has run into strong opposition from the country’s Catholic bishops and a broad coalition of citizens who call themselves the Movement Against Tyranny.

In their statement, the bishops said that amending the constitution “requires widespread people’s participation and consultation, unity of vision, transparency and relative serenity that allows for rational discussion and debate.”

Duterte had promised voters a constitutional convention but has since reneged, claiming the government could not afford the financial cost.

When he ran for president in 2016, the former mayor of the southern city of Davao captured the imagination of Filipinos by riding on the long-festering discontent toward what people in the south dubbed “imperial Manila.”

Duterte framed federalism as the permanent solution to poverty and conflict, claiming that Metro Manila, with its 13 million population, has been siphoning off resources and imposing its will on the rest of the Philippines’ 103 million population.

Few Filipinos dispute that diagnosis.

The national government has been known to run roughshod over environmental protection measures in the provinces. Philippine law mandates decentralization of power, but tweaks by the legislative and executive bodies on internal revenue policies have concentrated funds in the bigger and already rich cosmopolitan centers.

Previous administrations also initiated fiscal programs that punished slow-moving provincial projects instead of aiding capacities, diverting monies to schemes in aid of election campaigns.

The federalist proposal of Duterte’s allies, however, does not address these problems. Proposed drafts of a new charter strike out constitutional safeguards for indigenous communities, workers, farmers, fisher folk, the urban poor and small businesses.

The most dangerous changes trample on civil liberties, the separation of powers of the legislative and executive departments, and the judiciary.

Duterte’s allies want to strip the Supreme Court of its powers to review executive actions charged as unconstitutional.

Press freedom and freedom of expression are now subject to the legislators’ definition of “responsible” exercise of these rights. The people’s sovereign authority would be limited to suffrage and everything else left to the tender mercies of politicians.

The Duterte camp also wants to lift constitutional restrictions on foreigners owning land and controlling extractive industries. It would give parliament full discretion in charting “economic expansion” and exempting industries from protection. It grants federal states the freedom to cut deals on extractive industries, with hardly any oversight from the national government.

A politically mature nation could probably survive these changes. But the Philippines, for all its reputation as a free-wheeling, vibrant democracy, remains a semi-feudal society where political dynasties make up 80 percent of the legislature and local governments.

Most of these clans have multiple members controlling key positions in national and regional law-making and executive bodies. They are also among the richest Filipinos, controlling most of the country’s still alienable lands — having resisted the distribution to farmers of a million hectares covered by the agrarian reform law — and using their political power to benefit economic interests.

All of them will enjoy the powers of deal-making when corporate bigwigs come calling to divide the country’s resources for exploitation.

The Movement Against Tyranny noted that the proposal to change the constitution is a recipe for civil war, pitting big interests against rural communities already struggling to hold on to ancestral lands and keeping the country’s last pristine areas safe from big developments. It also raises a potential security nightmare if foreign entities are allowed to control land along the archipelago’s 36,289-kilometer coastline.

The guidelines issued by the Catholic bishops on discussions of the proposed charter revision stressed that changes should allow the broadening and strengthening of democratic institutions, the enhancing of separation and distinction of powers, the fostering of social justice, the resolution of issues of poverty and corruption, patronage politics, political dynasties and disregard for human rights.

Duterte’s federalist dream would tear down the good in the Philippines’ flawed democracy and cement everything wrong with it.

*Inday Espina-Varona is an editor and opinion writer for various publications in Manila.


The Environmental Holiday Hangover – OpEd

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Christmas may seem like a distant memory but the environmental effect of the annual consumer frenzy, over-indulgence and extravagance is lasting damage. And year on year the cost to the planet grows.

For the best part of a week in early January the street in which I live in London was littered with mountains of rubbish and discarded Christmas trees, real and fake. The use of both live and artificial trees as decorative emblems of Christmas is ecologically damaging and, like many aspects of this materialistic pantomime, needs to be consigned to a bygone era and replaced with either a naked corner, or a rented potted tree from a garden center, which can be returned to the growers afterwards.

In Europe an estimated 60 million live trees are bought, decorated and dumped; it’s around 30 million in America. The majority of real trees are grown specifically for Christmas so forests are not being depleted, but after the festivities most real trees are thrown away and as they decompose, methane (a greenhouse gas) is produced. Artificial trees leave their own carbon footprint due to their production and transportation. Most are made in China and amass a great many polluting air miles on route to their Western destination, and when discarded end also up in landfill sites. In order to make up for the amount of energy used in its production, according to The Woodland Trust, a plastic tree would need to be reused every Christmas for twenty years. Under the tree of course is to be found the Festive Icons – the presents. Worldwide, adults are said to spend on average $475 on gifts, half of which are unwanted, but in this throwaway world of ours, instead of returning them, most of these rejected trinkets are dumped in the rubbish bin and end up in a landfill site.

Christmas and rubbish are synonymous terms in more ways than one. It’s the time of year when the largest amount of consumer waste is produced and the overwhelming bulk it ends up in a hole in the ground. Over 114,000 tons of plastic waste is estimated to have been produced in Britain over Christmas and not recycled, together with “more than 88,000,000 Sq. m of wrapping paper and 300,000 tonnes of card packaging”, The Times relates. In the Capital of Consumerism, America a colossal $10 million is spent on wrapping paper, most of which is not recyclable, and the number of Christmas cards sold requires 300,000 trees to be cut down.

Then there’s the unbridled cruelty reserved for the animals that are raised for the festive table; around 10 million turkeys are eaten in Britain; its closer to 25 million in America, where the major turkey cull is Thanksgiving. The vast majority of birds stuffed and roasted are factory farmed. Their short lives are spent in appalling conditions and end when they are plunged head first into electrified stunning baths, after which they have their throats cut in the slaughterhouse. The industrial farming of turkeys is not just barbaric, like all animal agriculture it produces huge amounts of the greenhouse gases which fuel man-made climate change. Add in Christmas travel by road and air and the enormous environmental impact of Christmas begins to become clear: from 15th December to 4th January a record 52 million people in America took to the air and 97 million hit the highways. In Britain over thirteen million vehicles clogged the roads in the days leading up to the Big Day, and both Heathrow and Gatwick airports had their busiest days on record: around four million people in total, with record numbers taking long-haul flights. Aviation is a major source of greenhouse gases, and the further one flies the greater the environmental damage.

Simplicity and Sufficiency

Whilst the festive period allows much needed time for rest, and for some, warm family gatherings (tense misery for others), in its current form it is little more than an exercise in mass consumerism. The ‘Christmas Spirit’, which suggests peace, brotherhood and ‘goodwill to all men’, is widely absent, replaced by an exaggerated version of how life is conducted the rest of the year; contemporary values (which are not values at all of course) of greed and selfishness are relentlessly encouraged and to a large degree, prevail.

The ‘consumer culture’, of which Christmas is the pinnacle expression, is an essential part of the Neo-liberal economic system under which we live. It is maintained by insatiable desire and the false notion that happiness is to be found within the Christmas wrapping paper, the Black Friday Deals or Saturday shopping outings, in ‘success’ and sensory pleasure. However, far from creating the conditions in which contentment and joy can flower, discontent and conflict is maintained, and an atmosphere created for anxiety and depression to grow. As it is currently constituted, Christmas perpetuates and strengthens this materialistic and highly damaging approach to life – for humanity and the planet. Like much of contemporary living it needs to be simplified and re-defined, not necessarily in a way that corresponds to Christian doctrine, but in a manner rooted in what we might more broadly call ‘spiritual’, or simply human values: sharing, social/environmental responsibility, tolerance and kindness to one another and, crucially, the Earth itself.

A treeless, gift-free Christmas, where little or no travel is involved, and money usually spent on gifts is donated to an environmental charity, would be the ideal. If you can’t face Christmas without presents, then environmental considerations should be paramount when choosing what to ‘give’ – not necessarily what to ‘buy’. If we are to overcome the environmental catastrophe and reverse the colossal ecological damage, greed, selfishness and excess must come to an end, replaced by Simplicity and Sufficiency – and a new environmental consciousness urgently cultivated, at Christmas and throughout the year.

Cardinal Zen Critical Of Possible Vatican-China Deal

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Cardinal Joseph Zen again had harsh words for the Vatican on Friday, saying that the proposed deal between the Vatican and the Chinese government-controlled Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association was not in the best interests of Chinese Catholics.

The Catholic Church in China is divided into the illegal “underground” Church, which remains faithful and in communion with Rome, and the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association, whose bishops are appointed by the government. Members of the underground church are often persecuted by the Chinese government.

The agreement would reportedly legitimize the bishops of the Catholic Patriotic Association, and would force the underground church’s bishops into retirement. Cardinal Zen has been outspoken in recent weeks against the Vatican’s deal with the Chinese church.

Zen is the emeritus Archbishop of Hong Kong.

The Vatican and China have not had formal relations for the past 70 years, when the communist government took control in the country in 1951. The Chinese government is officially atheist, although there are a handful of state-approved churches in the country.

At a press conference Zen expressed concern that despite assurances that Pope Francis would have final approval of over who is made a bishop in China, the Chinese government will still only nominate candidates who would be loyal and obedient to the government, Reuters reported.

He criticized the possible agreement as something that might sound “wonderful,” but is actually just “fake.”

He continued, “They are not going to make good choices for the Church … surely they choose the one they prefer, which means the one who always obeys the government. So how (could) the Holy Father approve such a choice?”

“Okay, he can veto. How many times? It takes courage to veto the second time, the third time, five times,” Zen said.

He said that he fears that Pope Francis hasn’t been informed about the reality of the situation of the Church in China, and that he thinks the Vatican may be too quick to make an agreement with China.

But, said Zen–the current agreement is nothing more than a surrender on the Vatican’s part.

“I am not judging their conscience but … it’s a surrender and they have no right to surrender.”

Trump Returns ‘Sensitive’ Memo To House Democrats For Revision

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US President Donald Trump has declined to make public a memo written by Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee, saying that it requires additional revisions to remove sensitive and classified information.

The 10-page document, authored by Representative Adam Schiff (D-California), contains “numerous properly classified and especially sensitive passages,” says a letter from the White House counsel Don McGahn, sent to the committee on Friday evening.

Trump is “inclined” to declassify the memo, but is “unable to do so at this time,” says the letter, adding that the committee should work with the Department of Justice to revise the memo to mitigate the risks to US law enforcement and intelligence.

The DoJ and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have identified passages that would create “significant concerns for the national security and law enforcement interests,” says the letter.

However, the White House has instructed the DoJ to provide personnel that could assist the committee if they wish to revise the document, “given the public interest in transparency.”

Schiff’s memo was written in response to a four-page document compiled by the committee chair, Rep. Devin Nunes (R-California) and published last Friday. Democrats on the committee have accused Nunes of misrepresenting and cherry-picking information in order to accuse the FBI and the Justice Department of abusing the rules to obtain and renew a FISA surveillance warrant against a Trump campaign adviser.

Nunes’s memo, published last Friday, accused the FBI and the DoJ of not informing the FISA court that the so-called “Steele dossier” on which the warrant was almost exclusively based was in fact opposition research paid for by the Democratic Party and the Hillary Clinton campaign.

The dossier was authored by former British spy Christopher Steele, who was working for the Washington DC-based firm Fusion GPS. It later emerged the company’s effort was entirely funded by the Clinton campaign, through the DNC law firm Perkins Coie.

Outing The US Empire: Trump’s Military Parade – OpEd

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You only had to see him goggle eyed and enthusiastic beside France’s President Emmanuel Macron last Bastille Day. The tricolours were fluttering, the jets booming above in the manner usual for a lapsed empire, and the President of the United States was thrilled to bits, delighted at the spectacle. “It was one of the greatest parades I’ve ever seen. We’re going to have to try and top it.”

Donald Trump wetting himself over a military parade in another country was one thing. That he is now attempting to bring that experience back to the United States has local policy figures in a fix. According to White House press secretary Sarah Sanders, the president “has asked the Department of Defense to explore a celebration at which all Americans can show their appreciation.”

The good citizens of the United States have tended to associate such military affairs with the goosestepping types, eyes glazed and bayonets erect with purpose before authoritarian clowns. Only foreign types, unmoved by the impulse of American liberty, engage in that sort of thing.

In some ways, having such a parade would be a natural order for a power that remains in denial about its imperial pedigree, bastard or otherwise. There is a near pathological preference to live in the bright delusional light of free world defender of peace. “As distinct from other peoples,” wrote the late Chalmers Johnson, that keen student of US empire and its consequences, “most Americans do not recognize – or do not want to recognize – that the United States dominates the world through its military power.”

An orgiastic display of US military symbolism would be a direct, if discomforting change from the usual pattern. States often tend to have military shows that are inversely proportionate to their economic and social success. More guns do not necessarily imply more butter in the home. The Soviet Union, and the current Russian incarnation, insisted on military parades as matters of pride, though such shows are as revealing as they are concealing. As Moscow terrified with its military prowess and gritty warriors parading before the greys and browns of the politburo, the state was unravelling in sickness, awaiting ultimate implosion.

North Korea similarly insists on the star studded show, the pantomime of military hardware and vocal troops captivated by supreme leader, Kim Jong-un. To take such an aggressive stance serves to also conceal weakness and internal fragility. Besides, such displays provide epic distractions for troubled populaces, a sort of cinematic release packaged in military grandeur.

To that end, a US military parade would reverse the order of things. To have such a parade could be likened to a coming out ceremony, a grand confession to the globe. The United States, through dozens of military bases webbing the entire globe like Arachne’s thread, prefers the rhetoric of restraint and order while waging a series of conflicts that result in an order of permanent war for permanent peace.

It was the coming of the Cold War, and the emergence of the United States as the pre-eminent power after the Second World War, that prompted the remark by the sharp Charles Beard that the foreign policy of both Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman could be classed as the waging of “perpetual war for perpetual peace”. That assessment duly stuck, though the US public, for the most part, went into a state of permanent amnesia.

One symptom of empire common to all entities which have undertaken this venture is the illusion of some lingering order without disturbance, the civilizing effects of the Pax Romana delivered through soldiers bearing the gift of peace or the more recent Pax Americana. This supplies the nursery story, widely disseminated, that international peace is maintained in such circumstances while swords are turned to ploughshares.

Quite the opposite is true. Such states of affairs ensure a constant demand for conflict, the need for police operations and bloody corrections, the deployment of auxiliaries and allies, and the necessity for a hardened military industrial complex.

A mild acquaintance with those blood thirsty deliverers of peace, the Romans, provides the surest precedent by which subsequent empires supposedly interested in peace thrive upon. The parallels between US narratives of power, and those of Rome, are striking. True, the Roman empire incorporated local power elites and spread citizenship. “It was generosity,” notes classicist Mary Beard, “even if sprung from self-interest.” But it was Tacitus in his inimitable account of Agricola, his father-in-law’s exploits as governor of Britain in the late first century AD, that left a superb critique of empire that remains as pertinent to the US as any other.

Tacitus takes note of the Caledonian resistance figure Calgacus, whose speech does not merely attack the imperial predations of Rome, but the euphemising nature of power and its concealments. “To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false titles, they call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace.” There is nothing to suggest that Calcagus ever said anything of the sort in the name of liberty to rouse his troops – Tacitus was a despairing critic of empire and its consequences, being both recorder and analyst.

From matters of conspiracy to an emphasis on the fake news complex; to the suspicions of suited establish doyens who have long steered empire in the shadows while proclaiming the virtues of liberty, Trump’s opportunity for another show is here. It is time to put the US empire on display.

As he has done before, the current president overturns convention and confronts the deep seated psychic disturbances of the US state. Forget the clichés and deceptions about delivering peace. Ignore the alarm from the imperial closeted types. (We, claimed Representative Jackie Speier, “have a Napoleon in the making here.”) Put stock, instead, in matters of belligerence, of making deserts. Place that weaponry on show in lusty, persuasive fashion. And most importantly of all, make Little Rocket Man green with envy.

Neanderthals’ Lack Of Drawing Ability May Relate To Hunting Techniques

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Neanderthals had large brains and made complex tools but never demonstrated the ability to draw recognizable images, unlike early modern humans who created vivid renderings of animals and other figures on rocks and cave walls. That artistic gap may be due to differences in the way they hunted, suggests a University of California, Davis, expert on predator-prey relations and their impacts on the evolution of behavior.

Neanderthals used thrusting spears to bring down tamer prey in Eurasia, while Homo sapiens, or modern humans, spent hundreds of thousands of years spear-hunting wary and dangerous game on the open grasslands of Africa.

Richard Coss, a professor emeritus of psychology, says the hand-eye coordination involved in both hunting with throwing spears and drawing representational art could be one factor explaining why modern humans became smarter than Neanderthals.

In an article recently published in the journal Evolutionary Studies in Imaginative Culture, Coss examines archaeological evidence, genomics, neuroscience studies, animal behavior and prehistoric cave art.

New theory of evolution

From this, he proposes a new theory for the evolution of the human brain: Homo sapiens developed rounder skulls and grew bigger parietal cortexes — the region of the brain that integrates visual imagery and motor coordination — because of an evolutionary arms race with increasingly wary prey.

Early humans hunted with throwing spears in sub-Saharan Africa for more than 500,000 years — leading their increasingly watchful prey to develop better flight or fight survival strategies, Coss said.

Some anthropologists have suggested that throwing spears from a safe distance made hunting large game less dangerous, he said. But until now, “No explanation has been given for why large animals, such as hippos and Cape buffalo, are so dangerous to humans,” he said. “Other nonthreatening species foraging near these animals do not trigger alert or aggressive behavior like humans do.”

Drawn from earlier research on zebras

Coss’ paper grew out of a 2015 study in which he and a former graduate student reported that zebras living near human settlements could not be approached as closely before fleeing as wild horses when they saw a human approaching on foot — staying just outside the effective range of poisoned arrows used by African hunters for at least 24,000 years.

Neanderthals, whose ancestors left Africa for Eurasia before modern human ancestors, used thrusting spears at close range to kill horses, reindeer, bison, and other large game that had not developed an innate wariness of humans, he said.

Hunting relates to drawing

“Neanderthals could mentally visualize previously seen animals from working memory, but they were unable to translate those mental images effectively into the coordinated hand-movement patterns required for drawing,” Coss writes.

Coss, who taught drawing classes early in his academic career and whose previous research focused on art and human evolution, used photos and film to study the strokes of charcoal drawings and engravings of animals made by human artists 28,000 to 32,000 years ago in the Chauvet-Pont-d’Arc Cave in southern France.

The visual imagery employed in drawing regulates arm movements in a manner similar to how hunters visualize the arc their spears must make to hit their animal targets, he concludes.

These drawings could have acted as teaching tools. “Since the act of drawing enhances observational skills, perhaps these drawings were useful for conceptualizing hunts, evaluating game attentiveness, selecting vulnerable body areas as targets, and fostering group cohesiveness via spiritual ceremonies,” he writes.

As a result, the advent of drawing may have set the stage for cultural changes, Coss said. “There are enormous social implications in this ability to share mental images with group members.”

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