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A Democratic Coup In Timor-Leste – OpEd

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By Jose Belo*

Timor-Leste’s general election in 2018 will prove to be like no other.

This is the first time in East-Timorese history that a minority government and the president of the republic have been forced into early elections — less than a year since the last general election in July 2017.

The May 12 election comes as a result of the current Fretilin and Democratic Party (PD) minority government having failed to pass any legislation in the government program in 2017.

Following the July 2017 election they formed a minority government in September since no party had won a clear majority.

Fretilin tried to form a coalition with the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT), People’s Liberation Party (PLP) and the Kmanek Haburas Unidade Nasional Timor Oan — known as Khunto — but all disagreed with Fretilin’s approach to power sharing and declined.

Since then the opposition Parliamentary Majority Alliance (AMP) comprising CNRT, PLP and Khunto, has placed considerable political pressure on the Fretilin/PD coalition with the result being the decision for early elections.

It is a make-or-break event in Timorese politics and there is clear intent on both sides to try and get a resounding victory and politically sideline their opponents. However, the story is much more nuanced, complicated and fundamental.

The governing principle behind the Fretilin administration is that it alone controls the primary levers of state — it does not share power easily, if at all.

Despite the gentleman’s agreement between leaders Xanana Gusmao and Mari Alkatiri in 2015 to step aside from the premiership role the Fretilin government has done many things in breach of this agreement.

This comes as a result of fundamentally differing styles of leadership. The Alkatiri model is domineering, rigid and inflexible. Gusmao’s, however, was flexible and one in which many people were brought into a big tent. It was designed to compromise and rule, rather than dictate and rule.

This comes from different historical experiences during the liberation struggle.

Gusmao’s clique managed a system of governing in the jungle based on internal compromise and negotiation. Meanwhile, the Alkatiri clique of exiles took ideological stands that were rigid in their stance.

It was easy to take Alkatiri’s position while in exile, but for those in the jungles and prisons of Timor-Leste, flexibility was needed to survive and in the end prosper and be victorious in the liberation struggle.

In 2002, when the first post-restoration of independence Fretilin government was formed it was dominated by outsiders such as Alkatiri, Rogerio Lobato, Roque Rodrigues, Ramos-Horta, Ana Pessoa, Estansilau da Silva and many others.

This group alienated the population, and eventually brought about a crisis in 2006, after which they fell from power.

Having been returned to the Government Palace in 2017, the same group has been on the ascendance and once again has refused to accommodate. As a result the people that fought in the jungles, towns and prisons of Timor-Leste and Indonesia are now once again lined up against the outsiders in the battle for power.

It is an open secret that Gusmao and Taur Matan Ruak are seeking to put an end to Alkatiri’s political career and return to government in the short term.

However, the long-term goal is to remove Alaktiri from the Fretilin Party structure and in effect reform the party from the outside in.

*Jose Belo is a journalist and commentator based in Dili.


US Defense Secretary, South Korean Minister Discuss ‘Historic Opportunity’

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US Defense Secretary James N. Mattis met with South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha to discuss the current situation on the Korean Peninsula, chief Pentagon spokesperson Dana W. White said in a statement released Friday.

Kang reviewed the Panmunjom Declaration and the efforts to improve relations between North and South Korea while achieving the common goal of denuclearization, White said in the statement.

Mattis and Kang shared hope that the upcoming U.S.-North Korea talks scheduled for June 12 would provide a historic opportunity to reach a diplomatic resolution that achieves complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of North Korea, White said.

Mattis reaffirmed the ironclad U.S. commitment to defend South Korea using the full spectrum of U.S. capabilities. Both leaders pledged continued close coordination to implement North Korea-related U.N. Security Council resolutions and to support ongoing diplomatic engagements, the statement said.

Could Google’s Ban On Ads Rig Ireland’s Abortion Vote?

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By Kevin Jones

Internet giant Google has decided to bar all ads related to a fast-approaching referendum on legalizing abortion in Ireland. The decision drew much fire from pro-life critics, and some observers say the move unquestionably hurt efforts to preserve the Eighth Amendment, Ireland’s constitutional recognition of the unborn’s right to life.

“It is a blow to the ‘No’ side, which had planned an intensification of an already heavy online advertising campaign in the closing weeks of the campaign before polling day on May 25,” Pat Leahy, politics editor of the Irish Times, said in a May 10 analysis.

“Since last year its strategists had planned a wave of late online advertising targeting undecided and soft ‘Yes’ voters.”

The move “deprives anti-abortion campaigners of a key element of their strategy for the final two weeks of the campaign,” he said.

The company characterized the move as part of “election integrity efforts.” All Google advertising platforms, including AdWords and YouTube, are affected by the decision, which took effect May 10.

For the three leading pro-life groups who back the Eighth Amendment, Google’s decision was “an attempt to rig the referendum.”

“It is very clear that the Government, much of the establishment media, and corporate Ireland have determined that anything that needs to be done to secure a ‘Yes’ vote must be done,” the Pro-Life Campaign, Save the 8th and the Iona Institute said in a joint May 9 statement.

“In this case, it means preventing campaigns that have done nothing illegal from campaigning in a perfectly legal manner.”

The groups said mainstream media is dominated by pro-repeal voices and online media is their only platform to speak directly to voters on a large scale.

“That platform is now being undermined, in order to prevent the public from hearing the message of one side,” they said.

The referendum seeks to modify the Republic of Ireland’s constitution, which recognizes the equal right to life of both a mother and her unborn baby.

Polls initially suggested strong support for repeal, but the gap had been narrowing significantly in recent weeks.

The pro-repeal Together for Yes campaign on May 8 said Google’s decision will “ensure a level playing field between both sides.”

Irish government head Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who backs legal abortion, welcomed the move from Google.

Maria Steen of the Iona Institute, however, said Google’s decision was “an attack on the integrity of the referendum” and “a blatant attempt to silence debate in Ireland.”

In Leahy’s view, pro-repeal leaders “wholeheartedly welcomed and applauded” Google’s decision, and their reaction shows that the decision favors their side.
The Irish Times suggested that companies have become afraid that if voters reject the referendum, they will face blame and further scrutiny for allegedly influencing elections.

Facebook also announced a policy change, but said that it would be canceling only foreign-funded ads related to the referendum.

John McGuirk, a spokesman for the Save the 8th campaign, welcomed Facebook’s decision and suggested it would affect a very small percentage of ads. However, he argued that Google’s move against domestic advertising was driven by fears of pro-abortion rights groups that they would lose the vote and therefore they wanted to limit voter information.

Irish law largely restricts foreign funding of political campaigns, but there is little legal oversight of social media.

Financier and philanthropist George Soros’ Open Society Foundations and its pro-abortion rights grantees have already run afoul of Irish political finance rules.

Abortion Rights Campaign Ireland had received about $29,500 from the foundations in 2016, but returned it later that year after being contacted by The Republic of Ireland’s Standards in Public Office Commission, which warned that the organization could be reported to the national police.

As of December 2017, Irish officials were in talks with the Irish Family Planning Association, which received $150,000 from the Open Society Foundations in 2016, because of possible violations of election laws on political funding.

That same month, officials ordered Amnesty International to return $160,000 to the foundations because the money violated Irish law barring foreign donations to third party groups seeking to influence the outcome of a referendum campaign. Amnesty International has challenged the opinion.

However, backers of repeal have similarly tried to make an issue of overseas advocacy from U.S. pro-lifers.

The Washington Post, citing the Transparent Referendum Initiative, said Facebook ads have appeared from Live Action, the Radiance Foundation, and the New York City-based Expectant Mother Care/E.M.C. FrontLine Pregnancy Centers.

In March, the online weekly newspaper Dublin Inquirer interviewed Chris Slattery, founder and CEO of the New-York based pregnancy centers, about the sponsorship of those ads.

“I was requested by Irish pro-life activists to stir up Americans to stand with them to support the Eighth Amendment,” he said, reporting that he had spent “a few hundred dollars” boosting posts to his “friends in Ireland.”

Slattery voiced surprise that a journalist was calling him about the ads.

Facebook has said it has built relationships with political parties, groups representing both sides of the referendum, and the Transparent Referendum Initiative, “who we are asking to notify us if they have concerns about ad campaigns.”

“We will then assess and act on those reports,” Facebook said May 8. “We will also be using machine learning to help us with this effort to identify ads that should no longer be running.”

Malaysia Blocks Attempt By Najib, Wife To Go Abroad

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By N. Nantha and Hadi Azmi

Malaysia on Saturday barred former Prime Minister Najib Razak and his wife from leaving the country, amid multiple reports that they had planned to depart on a private plane for Indonesia.

The ban was announced on Facebook as Malaysian reporters mobbed the entrance to the small Subang International Airport outside Kuala Lumpur, said to be the place where the former first couple would board the jet.

“The Immigration Department of Malaysia wants to confirm that Dato Sri Najib Tun Abdul Razak and Datin Sri Rosmah Mansor have just been blacklisted from going abroad,” said a notice posted on the department’s Facebook page at around 11:20 a.m. local time. The plane had reportedly been scheduled to depart at 10 a.m.

Najib said he had been informed of the decision in a tweet sent around noon.

“I respect the order and will be with my family in the country,” it said.

In a long statement posted moments earlier on his Facebook page, Najib said he would be going abroad to relax and ponder his political future.

“My family and I will be traveling abroad starting today to relax after the end of the 14th General Election,” it said.

He added that he was “fully responsible” for the outcome of the election, as president of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) and the coalition it anchored, the Barisan Nasional (BN).

“During this period, I will decide on my position as President of UMNO and Barisan Nasional Chairman, taking into account the deterioration of the people’s support for Barisan Nasional in the 14th General Election,” he said.

“Upon returning home next week, I will announce the decision and my future plans.”

Najib apologized to Malaysians and said he was “taking a break” after a long political career and bruising electoral fight, in a series of tweets earlier in the day that had a farewell tone.

“I pray that after this divisive period, the country will unite. I apologize for any shortcomings and mistakes, and I thank you, the people, for the opportunity to lead our great nation. It has been the honor of my lifetime to serve you and Malaysia.”

Resignation calls at UMNO anniversary

Najib’s government was routed in an electoral landslide Wednesday after three years of fending off corruption allegations amid international money-laundering probes linked to billions of dollars allegedly siphoned from Malaysian state fund 1MDB, which Najib had founded.

New Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad had pledged during his campaign to work to get back that money and to prosecute those who broke the law.

On Friday, a sombre Najib attended the annual celebration of the founding of UMNO, which had ruled Malaysia since the country gained independence in 1957.

Members of UMNO’s youth wing used the occasion to demand that the 64-year-old resign from the party.

“Datuk Seri Mohd Najib is the main cause of Barisan Nasional’s defeat at both the central and state levels,” Rafizal Abd Rahim, an UMNO youth leader from Penang, told BenarNews.

“He needs to appreciate what he always called his ‘big spirit’ and immediately hand over UMNO’s top leadership to a person more qualified than him.”

In a press conference on Thursday in which he acknowledged his election defeat, Najib said his government had elevated Malaysians’ quality of life, but “there are things that are not perfect in the time when we were in power.”

While discussing plans for his cabinet on Friday, Mahathir told reporters that a few top government officials were facing the risk of being removed from their positions.

“Our intention is to go for people who have shown a tendency to be corrupt or who have committed known corrupt acts,” Mahathir said.

Analysts said among those in the firing line could be Attorney General Apandi Ali, who had cleared Najib of corruption allegations related to 1MDB.

The U.S. Department of Justice is trying to recover more than $1.7 billion in real-estate and other assets allegedly siphoned off through complex transactions from 1MDB, which Najib formed in 2009 ostensibly to pursue projects that would benefit Malaysian citizens through development projects.

Court documents allege that about U.S. $681 million of 1MDB funds were diverted into Najib’s personal bank accounts, but Najib said the money came as a political donation from a member of the Saudi royal family.

“At the moment the AG [attorney general] has undermined his own credibility. He has hidden evidence of wrongdoing and that is wrong under the law,” Mahathir said.

Mahathir was sworn in as Malaysia’s seventh prime minister on Thursday, a day after the coalition he led defeated Barisan Nasional, winning 113 seats of the contested 222 parliamentary seats.

Senate Should Nix Nomination Of Gina Haspel To Lead CIA – OpEd

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American national security agencies—such as the Pentagon, State Department and CIA—often complain about congressional oversight, forgetting they are not only supposed to be protecting the U.S. territory and population, but also the way of life of those people.

These agencies are not serving dictatorial regimes, but one of the freest nations in human history—the United States of America. And that free nation has a system of checks and balances and the rule of law, which are still both in operation. And sometimes, to preserve that American way of life, these agencies must use restraint, or if they fail to do so, be restrained. Gina Haspel, the CIA’s deputy director, although perhaps an effective clandestine officer, should not be confirmed as the agency’s director by the Senate in its constitutional role of approving presidential nominees.

Unfortunately, Donald Trump, like George W. Bush, does not mind bending the American system’s laws and norms. During his presidential campaign, Trump openly advocated returning to the torture of terrorism suspects conducted by the Bush administration during the hysteria following the 9/11 attacks. So it’s not surprising that Trump has nominated Gina Haspel to the agency’s top spot. It doesn’t bother the president in the least that she oversaw a secret CIA prison in Thailand where torture was reportedly committed and then was complicit in destroying the videos of such horrendous human rights abuse. Torture—such as water boarding (simulated drowning), but hardly limited to that practice—was practiced by the Bush administration in clear violation of long-standing U.S. and international law.

The bureaucrats at the secretive CIA have mounted an unusual public relations campaign on her behalf and dismissed her involvement in torture as just loyally following orders. Yet more than 100 retired generals and admirals signed a letter, led by former Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Charles C. Krulak, which argues that because of her involvement in torture and destruction of the video she is unfit to lead the CIA. In addition to its illegality, many military personnel oppose U.S. torture because they believe it is counterproductive to getting accurate information, allows enemies an excuse to torture any Americans captured, and makes the adversary’s combatants more prone to fight to the death rather than surrender—thus resulting in more American casualties.

Yet, in a Trumpian-like move, the CIA publicity machine has tried to make us believe that black is white and white is black by astonishingly claiming that Haspel is “committed to the rule of law.” Also, the agency has, despite five congressional requests, refused to declassify her professional biography. Senators would like to see what her role was in the CIA’s rendition, detention and interrogation program after she returned from Thailand to the agency’s counterterrorism center.

Trump seems to be exhibiting some of the same tendencies to flout the law that the flagrantly lawless Bush administration demonstrated. Congress should not further enable such tendencies by confirming a CIA nominee who already shown a blatant disregard of American rule of law.

Rohingyas Genocide: No Longer A Myth – OpEd

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The Genocide Convention was adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations in 1948 and entered into force in 1951. It declares that genocide is a crime under international law.

Article II of the Genocide Convention defines genocide as: any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

  • Killing members of the group;
  • Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
  • Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
  • Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
  • Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

Genocide is a serious crime that cannot be used lightly. It is the ultimate denial of the right to existence of an entire group of human beings. As such, it is the quintessential human rights crime because it denies its victims’ very humanity.

In the last eight months, since August 2017, some 700,000 natives of Arakan (or the Rakhine state) – the Rohingya Muslims and Hindus – have been forced to leave their ancestral homes to settle in Bangladesh as refugees. They left behind everything that was once important to them and even family members – as their properties were looted before being burned down with living family members inside. The International Rescue Committee estimated that there were 75,000 victims of gender-based violence (meaning rape), and that 45% of the Rohingya women attending safe spaces in Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh had reported such attacks. Thousands of men and women were killed as part of a very sinister national campaign that was planned and executed by the Myanmar (formerly Burma) government and its partners-in-crime amongst the Buddhist people, esp. within the Rakhine (formerly Arakan) state.

Do the Rohingyas qualify as victims of genocide? Let’s look at the issue seriously.
Genocide experts tell us that genocide is a process that usually goes through several stages. The first four of the five stages are the early warnings:

  1. Classification and Symbolization
  2. Dehumanization and Discrimination
  3. Organization and Polarization
  4. Preparation
  5. Execution

1. Classification is a primary method of dividing a society or polity into heterogeneous groups and symbolization is often used to cement divisive identities between groups, which is then used to justify crimes against the targeted group.

a.i. Rakhine Buddhists vs. Rohingya Muslims in the Rakhine state of Myanmar is a clear case where the Muslim minority is distinguished based on its ethnicity, race and religion. They are derogatorily called the Kala or Kalar people (synonymous to the English word ‘nigger’).

a.ii. In spite of their long history of existence in Arakan, the Rohingyas of Myanmar are accused of being “Bengalis” or “Chittagonians” (even ‘terrorists’) who had intruded illegally into Myanmar who want to “Islamize” the “Buddhist” Myanmar.

a.iii. As a high-profile refugee case highlighted the plight of the Rohingya, Ye Myint Aung, the Burmese Consulate-General in Hong Kong, wrote to foreign missions in Hong Kong in Feb. 2009 insisting that the Rohingyas should not be described as being from Burma, the South China Morning Post reported. He said that the Rohingyas are of ‘dark brown’ complexion and ‘ugly as ogres’ compared to ‘fair and soft skin’ people of Burma.

2. The dominant group uses either political power or muscle, laws and regulations to deny rights of the targeted group to further discriminate and persecute it. Then it robs the victim’s humanity by comparing it with animals, parasites, insects, diseases or ‘virus’. When a group of people is thought of as “less than human” it is easier for the dominant group to murder them. At this stage, hate propaganda in print and on hate radios is used to make the victims seem like villains. Dehumanization of the targeted group is used as the sufficient rationale to justify discriminatory laws and practices.

a.i. Rohingyas were declared non-citizens via the 1982 Burma Citizenship Law, effectively making them stateless. The legal experts contend that the Burmese Citizenship Law violates several fundamental principles of international customary law standards, offends the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and leaves Rohingyas exposed to no legal protection of their rights

a.ii. Rohingyas are denied all and everyone of the 30 basic human rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR). They are denied access to public schools, colleges and universities, hospitals and medical centers, government jobs, etc.; even their movement inside the country and the Rakhine state is restricted.

a.iii. Rakhine extremists and intellectuals (like Dr. Aye Chan) depicted the Rohingya people as ‘influx viruses’ – the ‘illegal Muslims of Arakan’ that needed to be eliminated. [Influx Viruses: The Illegal Muslims in Arakan By U Shw zan and Dr. Aye Chan]

a.iv. Another Buddhist extremist, Khin Maung Saw depicts Rohingyas as the camel in a Burmese fable that dislodged its owner from his tent, warning fellow Arakanese Buddhists against the Rohingyas whom he calls as “Chittagonian Bengalis” – “the guest who want to kick out the Host from his own house”.

3. Genocide is a group crime. Thus, it always needs organized efforts, usually by the state and sometimes by the non-state actors. Special army units or militias are often trained and armed. Plans are made for ‘final solution’ or genocidal killings. Extremist hate groups drive the groups apart; they are tolerated and encouraged to polarize and terrorize the targeted victims. Laws are formulated to forbid social and economic interactions with the targeted victims. Public demonstrations are held against the targeted group.

a.i. The Rohingyas have been depicted as a demographic “bomb” for Myanmar.

a.ii. The elimination of the Rohingya and other Muslims has been a national project, since at least General Ne Win’s time (1962-88).

a.iii. Genocidal crimes against the Rohingya people have been planned and executed by the Burmese governments since Ne Win’s time, enjoying extensive support and active participation from the Buddhist community – politicians, academics, monks and the public alike, let alone the members of the state apparatus at both central (Myanmar) and local (Rakhine state) levels, esp. the police and security forces. At least 18 military operations (excluding the NaSaKa operations between 1992-2012) were carried out against the Rohingya people since Burma had won its independence from the Great Britain in 1948 in which more than a million Rohingyas were forced to become refugees in many parts of the world, esp. Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Gulf States.

a.iv. Scores of government-sponsored public demonstrations (including those organized by Buddhist monks) were held since the transfer of power from military regimes to Thein Sein’s quasi-civilian/military regime and the current Suu Kyi’s government demanding strong actions – including deportation and/or elimination of the Rohingya and other Muslims in Myanmar.

4. Preparation is made to eliminate or exterminate the targeted group. It often uses euphemisms to cloak their sinister intentions, such as referring to their goals as “isolation,” ‘surgical operations,’ “ethnic cleansing,” “purification,” or “counter-terrorism.” They indoctrinate the populace with fear of the victim group. Leaders often claim, “If we don’t kill them, they will kill us.” Attacks are often staged and blamed on targeted groups. Victims’ properties are destroyed or confiscated. They are forced to leave their homes and/or encamped in concentration camps.

a.i. The genocidal pogroms of 2012, depicted as ‘race riots’ by the regime, were prompted by the false rumor – planted by the security forces – that two ‘Rohingya’ youths had killed a Rakhine woman – Thida Htwe – after raping her.

a.ii. In the so-called race riots of 2012, some 140,000 Rohingyas were displaced from their homes, which were burned down by joint operations of the security-cum-Buddhist mon-cum-Rakhine mobs in the Rakhine state. Internally displaced Rohingyas were forced to live in ‘concentration-like’ camps with little or no medical assistance.

a.iii. Thousands of Rohingyas are feared dead trying to flee Myanmar since 2012.

a.iv. More than two-thirds of the Rohingya (i.e., estimated at 2 million) were pushed out of Myanmar before the latest genocidal crimes of 2017.

a.v. Muslim owned homes, businesses and offices (including madrasa and mosques) were destroyed.

a.vi. The rape of Rohingya females, a crime that was to continue until now, was used as a weapon of war to terrorize the community.

5. Execution of the plan begins, and quickly becomes the mass killing or elimination of the targeted group, which is legally called “genocide.” It is “extermination” to the killers because they do not believe their victims to be fully human (see dehumanization). When it is sponsored by the government, the armed forces often work with private armies or militia to do the killing. Destruction of cultural and religious property is employed to annihilate the group’s existence from history. All men of fighting age are murdered wherever possible. Execution is always followed by denial of the crimes by the perpetrators – both during and after genocide. International press and investigative teams are barred from visiting the affected area and talk to the victims. Eye-witnesses or whistle-blowers are killed or ‘disappear’. Evidences of genocide are destroyed.

a.i. Despite credible mounting evidences, which were termed either as ‘ethnic cleansing’ or ‘genocidal’, Suu Kyi’s government denied such accusations. “I don’t think there is ethnic cleaning going on,” Suu Kyi told the BBC, April 2017.

a.ii. “It’s Muslims killing Muslims as well, if they think that they are collaborating with authorities … It’s a matter of people on different sides of a divide.” – Suu Kyi said, ibid.

a.iii. “No one can fully understand the situation of our country the way we do”. – Suu Kyi said

a.iv. Suu Kyi said the army was “not free to rape, pillage and torture”.

a.v. Myanmar’s army released a report that found “no deaths of innocent people” (11/2017)

As the short analysis above shows, there is no doubt that Rohingyas are victims of state-sponsored genocide. The findings from dozens of respectable institutions around our globe also concur. Human rights activists and genocide experts have been calling the Rohingyas the victims of Genocide. For instance, Dr. Maung Zarni and Alice Cowley in their seminal work “The slow-burning genocide of Myanmar’s Rohingya”, noted that both the State in Myanmar and the local community have committed four out of five acts of genocide as spelled out by the 1948 Convention on the Punishment and Prevention of the Crime of Genocide. Dr. Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, the departing chief of the UNHRC, said that genocide against Rohingya Muslims by state forces in Myanmar cannot be ruled out.

What is worse, the Rohingyas are victims of Myanmarism, a toxic cocktail of ultra-nationalism (Bama supremacy) and religious (Theravada Buddhism) fanaticism that draws its inspiration from Laukathara – a popular literary work of the early 14th century. In this ugly ideology in which religion and race mingle to define how Buddhists in Myanmar should behave and conduct their affairs, there is no place for non-Buddhists to live. Nurtured by the military generals, who saw themselves as reincarnation of the 11th century warrior-king, it’s simply the worst of all forms of extremism that the world has ever seen since at least the rise and fall of German/Italian Nazism/fascism. And yet, sadly, it is the least known evil. It needs to be defeated before the Rohingyas become an extinct race.

I often question what is the basis for a nation’s claim to independence or self-determination? Must a people wander in the wilderness for two millennia and suffer repeated persecution, humiliation and genocide to qualify? Until now, history’s answer to the question has been pragmatic and brutal – a nation is a people tough enough to grab the land it wants and hangs onto it. Period!

How about the rights of a minority community to survive with its culture and traditions intact? Do the victims need to be ‘children’ of a ‘higher’ God or follow Judeo-Christian morality to qualify? What makes the children of a ‘lesser’ God to be forgotten and denied the same treatment and privilege that was granted hitherto to the people of East Timor and South Sudan? Could not a U.N.-sponsored plebiscite determine the fate of the Rohingyas of our time to decide for themselves what is best for them – whether they need a protected homeland of theirs in the northern Arakan or they want to remain as full citizens of Myanmar with all their alienable rights granted and protected under the UDHR?

The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres rightly noted last December (2017), “Genocide does not happen by accident; it is deliberate, with warning signs and precursors.” “Often it is the culmination of years of exclusion, denial of human rights and other wrongs.”

Surely, the genocide of the Rohingyas of Myanmar is not happening by accident; it’s a deliberate act – albeit slowly but steadily – by successive murderous regimes providing enough warning signs for the world community to stop this monumental crime. The 1982 Citizenship Law provided the very justification for the Myanmar regime towards the elimination of the minority races like the Rohingya. It was no accident that Myanmar had witnessed, since 2012, a series of genocidal pogroms, mostly directed against the minority Rohingya and other Muslims. The terrorist monk Wirathu, who heads the fascist organization Ma Ba Tha, became the Buddhist face of terrorism, xenophobia, intolerance, and hatred. In the name of protecting Buddhism nearly a million Muslims have been violently displaced or uprooted from their homes all over Myanmar; thousands were killed. The eliminationist policy of genocide – endorsed from the top and preached and justified by Buddhist monks – became THE national project inside Myanmar, enjoying moral and material support at every level of the Buddhist society.

I often ponder: how will our generation be judged by our posterity for letting the genocide of the Rohingya to continue for this long? Shame on us if we fail to stop Rohingya genocide!

[Speech delivered at Arakan Conference on Rohingya Crisis and Solution in Cologne, Germany, May 2, 2018.]

Palestinian Refugees Suffer Setback In Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election – OpEd

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Palestinian refugees in Lebanon have no right to vote and that has never been a significant issue with them. As refugees they are not citizens of Lebanon and have never sought naturalization. Rather, their focus continues to be on acquiring at least some elementary civil rights pending full return to their own country, Palestine.

Admittedly, the hostility toward all refugees in Lebanon these days predictably would shrink the pro-Palestinian Parliamentary election lobbying results of the Beirut-Washington, DC Palestine Civil Rights Campaign (PCRC) among others. Still, it had been hoped that the make-up of the new 128 seat Parliament, would increase the chances that Lebanon’s Parliament would grant Palestinian refugees, after 70 years since their forced Exodus from Palestine the most basic civil rights to work and to own a home. These rights are granted to every refugee world-wide except to Palestinians in sectarianized Lebanon.

The Palestine Civil Rights Campaign (PCRC) has for nearly a dozen years been working to convince Lebanon’s Parliament to take 90 minutes of its time to achieve the following humanitarian initiatives and for candidates seeking a seat in Parliament to include in their electoral platform a commitment to:

  • Amend legislation that restricts the ability of Palestinian refugees to own property, specifically Presidential Decree 11614 of 4 January 1969, as modified by law 296 of April 3, 2001. This anti-Palestinian decree prohibits people who do “not carry a citizenship issued by a recognized state” from securing legal title to real estate in Lebanon. Since most Palestinians are stateless, the decree’s effect is to deny them the right to have legal title to a home outside the squalid camps.
  • Lift any remaining restrictions on the entry of building and maintenance materials and equipment into Palestinian refugee camps.
  • Remove restrictions on employment. Palestinian refugees, by international humanitarian law are to be given the same access to the labor market as other refugees and Lebanese nationals. With respect to employment, the Lebanese Labor Law of 1962 treats Palestinian refugees like other non-Lebanese and requires them to have a work permit. Rules for issuing work permits are subject to the principle of reciprocity, according to which Lebanon grants the right to work only to nationals of other states whose countries grant Lebanese citizens the right to work. Again, since Palestine is not yet recognized as a state, Palestinians are excluded from many jobs.

So what happened with last weekend’s voting to undercut Palestinian hopes in Lebanon’s 12 camps and what became of all that campaign rhetoric about human rights and “the Resistance will liberate Palestine beginning in Lebanon’s camps?”

To gain the possibility of some civil rights noted above, pro-Palestinian lawmakers in Lebanon (regrettably a dying breed nowadays) needed support from a combined simple majority of half plus-one of the 128 MP seats in Parliament, i.e. 65 members.

Factors relevant to the final vote results included the following:

Low voter turnout

Just 49.2 percent of Lebanon’s 3.6 million eligible voters decided to bother to vote as opposed, down from 54 percent in 2009. The most common explanation this observer heard was that standing in line for two hours or more to vote in an “election” that would very likely bring zero change was a waste of time. It has been estimated that no fewer than 35 percent of the votes cast in Lebanon’s previous elections were bought and paid for and this year’s unproven estimate is closer to 50%. The going price was $ 200 per vote. It is not clear to this observer how some citizens were able to sell several votes but its true that many Lebanese have a reputation for being good at “business”.

Confusing new election law

The low voter turnout can also be explained by the confusing and complicated new electoral law that required citizens to vote for whole party lists at a time of new electoral combinations. This meant, for example, that in some districts Sunnis were forced to vote for their traditional rivals such as the Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) if they wanted the Sunni candidate Saad Hariri to serve again as Prime Minister. This was because Hariri’s Future Movement was linked with Aoun’s FPM on the ballot.

Consequently, a relatively strong supporter of Palestinians in Lebanon, Hariri’s party suffered the election’s biggest blow, dropping around a third of its seats or from 33 to 21. Hezbollah-backed Sunnis did much better, mainly in Beirut, Tripoli, and Sidon, securing ten of the twenty-seven Sunni-allocated seats. The results suggest that Lebanon’s pro-Palestinian Sunni community is also deeply fractured and non-focused due in significant measure to perceived current feeble leadership.

A just-released (5/10/2018) breakdown by the Interior Ministry of preferential votes gained by each winning candidate, has exposed many discrepancies that have parties already insisting that there must be reform of the new electoral law and questioning the election results.

Parties that have long opposed to granting Palestinians the right to work did well at the polls

The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) which Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun headed for years and which is currently politically partnered with Hezbollah, expanded its voting bloc from 21 to 29 members. Michel Aoun is rabidly anti-Palestinian, and the FPM will not support any civil rights for Palestinians in Lebanon until there is a progressive change in leadership.

The Shia AMAL Movement, Hezbollah’s Shiite ally, picked up several seats and they also oppose civil rights for Palestinians in Lebanon despite international humanitarian law precepts requiring them.

The anti-Palestinian party that gained the most Parliamentary seats than in the 2009 election is Samir Geagea’s Christian party Lebanese Forces (LF) which increased its share from eight to fifteen Parliamentary seats. This is another setback for Palestinians given Geagea’s long and violent anti-Palestinian history and the role of the Lebanese Forces during the 1982 Sabra-Shatila Massacre and orchestrating other anti-Palestinian violence before and since. Geagea is now positioned to run for President of Lebanon and shares the hostility toward Palestinians in Lebanon of Lebanon’s current President, Michel Aoun of the FPM.

Another winner during the May 6th election is Hezbollah. While it won the same number of seats as in 2009 when it secured 13, today with its network of alliances, it arguably can secure a majority in parliament, exercising a veto power over Parliamentary decisions, and “legalizing” its weapons arsenal, one of its main goals. An important reason for Hezbollah and its ally’s election victory was their more effective use of sectarian appeals. Although many Shia have criticized Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria, they have become less vocal recently partly one imagines because of their perceived success of the pro-Assad coalition’s recent string of victories in Syria, which resulted in fewer dead Lebanese Shia, and that Hezbollah is still viewed as the protector of the Shia.

Iran and Hezbollah, since before they entered the sectarian war in Syria were making it plain that they will not support elementary civil rights to work or to home ownership for the camp refugees. This, despite incessantly playing a false Palestinian “Resistance” card to gain support from those who do believe in the case for Palestinian civil rights.

The pro-Palestinian Druze Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), headed by Walid Jumblatt, did manage to gain one additional seat in recent election. But unfortunately, it will help very little to gain Palestinians some civil rights. The 5/6/2018 Lebanese electoral result is a serious setback for Palestinians seeking civil rights in Lebanon.

A pro-Palestinian grassroots movement of activists, journalists and other political newcomers called “Kollouna Watani (“We are all Patriots”) managed to win a seat in Parliament and claim that any presence in parliament was a landmark victory for its campaign against patronage in an era when politics is run as a family business. Some see this as a significant political breakthrough as the number of activists in Lebanon has been dramatically rising in several areas.

In addition to the further blow to Palestinians in Lebanon gaining elementary civil rights from this year’s election, not much will change here politically. Lebanon’s fractured society has not been altered. It remains a divided, sectarian country where clientelism reigns and creates the political culture that has kept it from becoming a democracy in the past, currently and quite likely for the foreseeable future.

Carlos Eddé | Head of Lebanon’s National Bloc Party recently explained about Lebanon, “While it has the appearance of a democracy, it is in fact a plutocratic oligarchy. Electoral lists have no political cohesion or logic and election laws are always designed to protect the ruling class. The present one has an even more hideous characteristic in that it has transformed the electoral campaign outside areas controlled by Hezbollah into a general saloon brawl among foes and allies as well.”

Despite the recent election results, Palestinians in Lebanon will continue their struggle to achieve the elementary civil rights to work and to own a home. Their prospects will increase if more of their international supporters active on myriad internet blogs will focus on their plight in Lebanon and hopefully many will come to Lebanon to help organize an effective grassroots civil rights campaign.

Lebanese politicians can be persuaded to apply international humanitarian law principles, rules and standards and grant Palestinian refugees the elementary civil rights to work and to own a home. They must be approached personally with the facts from many UN and other studies demonstrating how granting these rights will grow Lebanon’s economy and help unify the country.

There is much political work to be done here in Lebanon’s 12 refugee camps but Lebanon’s Palestinians are organizing to do it.

The Shame Of Injustice – OpEd

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Poverty is the greatest cause of death and illness globally; it strangles the lives of billions of people, denying the expression of innate potential, condemning men, women and children to live stunted uncreative lives of interminable suffering and drudgery.

Whilst the numbers living in extreme poverty (the World Bank calculates this to be living on $1.90 a day) has decreased, over half of the world’s 7.5 billion population are somehow surviving on less than $5 a day (the cost of a designer coffee in developed countries). Hundreds of millions of others live in a condition of relative poverty or economic insecurity, anxiety and worry their constant companion. The majority of the World’s poorest people live in developing countries, India, Sub-Saharan Africa and rural China predominantly, but tens of millions are pushed into the shadows in industrialized nations, America for example has an estimated 44 million people, or 13% of the population, living in ‘official’ poverty. Wherever the poor are found they live on the margins of society, are exploited and disregarded.

Walking hand-in-hand with poverty is the crime of extreme inequality. Obscene levels of wealth is concentrated in the hands of a smaller and smaller number of trillionaires whilst the poor are forced to beg for the crumbs that fall from their burgeoning tables.

Poverty results from and is itself a form of injustice; so too is poor education, inadequate health care, homelessness and sub-standard accommodation. Like freedom, justice is a human right and within that triumph of common sense, the United Nations Declaration on Human Rights, is enshrined as such. But our world is dominated by attitudes and modes of living that deny justice and prohibit freedom. It is unjust that billions of people live in squalor; it is unjust that the quality of a child’s education is dependent upon the size of its parent’s bank account; it is unjust that access to health care in many countries is determined by one’s ability to pay for it. The collective shame of injustice must be cleansed from our world and trust inculcated.

Like many of our problems the key to creating a just society lies in the encouragement of sharing. In various areas of life, sharing is beginning to fashion the way things are done: data sharing within all forms of government and between agencies and allies is common practice, United Nations agencies readily share statistics and education tools, cooperate with aid organizations, as well as sharing research material relating to global issues – climate change for example. The worldwide web allows sharing on an unprecedented scale and has given billions of people access to information and ideas in a way that was impossible in the pre-internet age.

Whilst sharing initiatives are increasingly common, it is yet to be adopted as the primary economic and social principle. However, the ‘sharing economy’ of which we hear so much these days is a hint of things to come. A leading example of this new movement is the groundbreaking ‘Sharing City’ project set up in 2012 in Seoul, South Korea. The scheme has four main objectives: Reduce the use of municipal resources, create new jobs, build communities and cut pollution. There are a range of initiatives taking place in the city, including sharing unused parking spaces, leasing empty rooms, exchanging children’s clothing, and even meals; sharing bookshelves and internet access and letting citizens use idle spaces in public or government-owned facilities. As a result of these schemes, Forbes reports that, “a different culture is emerging, thanks to the support of the government, that has been proactively engaged with the public by providing the city’s resources such as unused public spaces and related data to its citizens, and providing support to sharing economy business models.”

On the whole the businesses grouped together under the sharing economy banner are functioning within the traditional capitalist system. Despite this distortion, it shows that the concept of sharing is increasingly influencing thinking and beginning to permeate human affairs: this augurs well for the future.

Sharing engenders trust

Injustice must be eradicated from our world, and the principal means of doing this is through sharing. When one shares, trust is engendered, divisions are dismantled, unity is cultivated and justice beings to flower. Sharing is the most efficient way to meet collective need, it is the common-sense approach to many of our problems, social and environmental; it is an expression of love, which is the unifying force of nature.

Without universal justice, disharmony will continue and peace will remain a fantasy. Injustice poisons the social fabric, pollutes the collective atmosphere and creates fermenting resentment, which fuels conflict. It is fed by complacency, which is the principal vice of the privileged, the smug and the comfortable; they have little or no idea of the intense suffering that billions of people are living under, and, fearing that their position of influence and control may be wretched from them, they cling to all that they hold dear – power and wealth.

Everything that causes injustice must be uprooted, within the structures under which we live, but also, and perhaps more importantly, within the consciousness of the individual. The destructive nature of conditioned ideals that encourage injustice must be recognized and rejected, and ways of living based on justice and social responsibility cultivated. At the same time, and flowing from this shift in attitudes, which in many people is well under way, socio-economic structures rooted in sharing are desperately needed to deal with systemic injustice.

The injustice of Inequality has reached abhorrent levels, not simply wealth and income inequality, but inequality of opportunity, inequality of access to health care and good quality education, housing and culture. Such inequalities feed injustice and stoke division, leading to conflict. They are inevitable under Neo-Liberalism, and unless we reject this outdated and unjust way of organizing the global economy, inequality will continue to grow year on year. The promise of social mobility as a means of addressing or reducing injustice is mere propaganda; within the current system there is virtually no such thing; if you’re born into poverty or relative poverty, the chances are you will remain there.

The answer to injustice and social division is not to be found buried in the crumbs of the comfortable, it lies in adopting radically new ideas; concepts of sharing that are woven into the fabric of human nature and need now to be applied in a pragmatic manner to solve the global problem of injustice.


Should Europe Limit Chinese Investment? – Analysis

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By Mario Esteban*

One of the defining features of the EU is its open economy, considered to be one of the fundamental pillars supporting Europe’s high level of socioeconomic development. As a result, the EU has always been very receptive to foreign direct investment and its Member States actively compete among themselves to attract such investment. This positive vision of foreign investment as an engine of economic growth is so widely held that only 12 of the 28 Member states have established mechanisms for supervising (and potentially rejecting) foreign investment on the grounds of national security.

Nevertheless, in February 2017, the Economy Ministers of Germany, France and Italy sent a joint letter to the Commissioner for Trade, Cecilia Malmström, requesting the establishment of a mechanism to supervise foreign investment at the European level. Two months later, the European Popular Party sent a letter with the same request to the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who took the baton and proposed the creation of such a mechanism during his State of the Union address in September 2017.

Why would such a European mechanism to supervise investment be necessary at this time? The main reason is the extraordinary evolution in recent years of Chinese investment in Europe, which grew from €1.6 billion in 2010 to €35 billion in 2016. Given that the current stock of Chinese investment internationally is equivalent to barely 10% of its own GDP, investment from China into Europe still has significant future potential for growth. Nevertheless, such a response is not really motivated by this quantitative aspect. In fact, European countries continue to compete amongst themselves to attract more investment from the Asia giant. The controversy arises more from the potential strategic, security and other public order implications of such investment. Therefore, this debate should not isolate itself in any one country, nor be understood as a protectionist measure, especially in the current context in which the role of Europe, as one of the principal guarantors of the open and inclusive international order, is particularly necessary.

A central issue in this controversy is how Europe should deal with investments in strategic sectors from actors who do no follow market rules. In this respect, Chinese investment has generated suspicions when it has been made in technology companies, especially if their activities are linked, or could be linked, to security and defence, or to critical infrastructures. This type of Chinese investment in Europe has grown exponentially since the Eurozone crisis, and has concentrated on the purchase of technology companies in the largest European economies, and in critical infrastructures in the southern and eastern countries of the EU. These operations have been facilitated by the preferential access to finance that is granted to these companies by the Chinese state, in turn giving China access to high technology and political influence.

These acquisitions of technology companies, aided by Chinese public finance, facilitate China’s positioning as a competitor in the high value-added industrial sector, which China is also stimulating with programmes like China 2025, the transfer of dual-use technologies for military development and efforts to access sensitive information. With respect to political influence, a demand for finance makes some EU countries more receptive than others to the political interests of Peking, a stance which has on various occasions in the past weakened the coherence and unity of the EU. For example, this happened with the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the South China Sea in July 2016. Furthermore, something similar occurred in June 2017, at the UN Human Right Commission, when Greece vetoed an EU condemnation of the Chinese regime’s human rights record.

The foreign investment supervisory mechanism that is now being articulated by the European Commission aims to: (1) increase the transparency of investments that potentially could affect security or public order; (2) raise consciousness of potential strategic implications of foreign investment, especial in Member States that do not have their own investment supervision mechanisms; and (3) to allow the EU to supervise investments linked to projects which its institutions have financed. To achieve these objectives, the Commission draft proposes a mechanism based on cooperation between the Commission and the Member states, beginning with exchange of information. This mechanism would not compel Member States to establish their own investment supervisory organisms nor would it grant the Union the capacity to block foreign investment in its Member States. The legislation is therefore looser and more flexible than that which is already in effect in a number of the Member States and other members of the G7.

Spain has its own tools, in line with the criteria of the Commission, allowing it to suspend the investment freedom principle. This does not mean, however, that implementation of the Commission’s proposal would not also have positive effects for Spain. The dissemination of information that such a mechanism would impose would also allow Spain access to early advanced information on foreign investments in other EU countries that might have a direct impact on it. Therefore, should there ever be another case like that of Three Gorges becoming the principal shareholder of Energias de Portugal (EDP) –which also gave the Chinese company control of EDP Spain– such information would arrive in Madrid well before the deal would be consummated.

It is not yet entirely clear how this foreign investment supervisory mechanism will be implemented, although this is expected to be announced by the European Council before the end of the year. The process during this time will involve reconciling the opposed interests of different public and private actors. On the one hand, there are differences between Member states like Germany, France and Italy which support the establishment of more restrictive instruments and more competencies for the Commission, and those who want to minimise the possibility that such a mechanism might be used in a protectionist manner that could reduce the flows of FDI toward their countries. On the other hand, within different Member States, security and public order interests are pitted against private interests that wish to sell corporate assets.

It remains to be seen whether a European investment supervisory mechanism will be finally approved, and what scope it might have. For the moment, the working proposal is based on information sharing and a maintenance of Member State veto capacity over investment operations. This working proposal also seems to provide for a reasonable balance between the multiple competing interests at play.

About the author:
*Mario Esteban,
Senior Analyst, Elcano Royal Instituto Elcano, and Professor at the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid | @wizma9

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute. Original version in Spanish: ¿Deben limitarse las inversiones chinas en Europa?. In partnership with Fundación Consejo España-China.

Access To End-Use Technologies Key To Catalysing Development In Africa – Analysis

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By Joshua Masinde

Productive use of energy holds the key to livelihood transformation in Africa’s rural areas. Small industries could improve their production processes and efficiency if they had better access to electricity and technologies.

Without electricity, rural micro-enterprises make do with labour intensive and time-consuming manual tools, and often pass up many opportunities for value addition or product diversification.

Satisfying the need for power of commercial enterprises presents an opportunity for private sector players such as JUMEME, a Tanzanian company that develops solar-powered mini-grids to connect businesses and households in remote areas.

Energy 4 Impact – a non-profit organisation working with local businesses to extend access to energy in Africa – has partnered with JUMEME in an advisory role to help it stimulate demand for electricity among potential customers and develop micro entrepreneurs’ business capacity to use energy for economic transformation, resulting in greater productivity and power consumption.

Compared with households, commercial enterprises take up larger loads of power and provide the developer with a stable source of cash-flow with better profit margins. Building the capacity and the environment for businesses to acquire electric appliances can both improve their processes and productivity and contribute to mini-grid sustainability.

In April 2016, JUMEME launched a solar mini-grid in Bwisya, the largest of eight villages on Ukara Island, on Lake Victoria in Tanzania. Since the mini-grid became operational, there has been substantial increase in commercial activities.

Just under 50 pre-existing and new businesses are now connected to power. Some of the businesses that relied on manual labour or diesel generators for grain milling, carpentry, bicycle and motorcycle repair have been able to automate and expand. New businesses dealing in egg incubation, laundry, bread baking, juice processing, ice block production, hair dressing, pop-corn production, and metal welding have emerged.

Data collected by JUMEME show a direct correlation between increased uptake of appliances and power usage. “We have noticed improved efficiency and productivity in mills, woodworks, metal works and baking businesses that have connected to the mini-grid,” says Robert Wang’oe, Head of Marketing at JUMEME. “We expect new businesses to come on stream, for example those purifying drinking water.”

However, although power is now available, many micro-businesses cannot afford to buy appliances. This is because they are unable to access credit to buy them, as they are considered high risk borrowers, says Diana Kollanyi, Energy 4 Impact Programme Manager.

“One of our strategies to advance financial inclusion to micro-enterprises for productive use was to offer non-cash credit guarantees to financial providers. However, there was limited interest by the providers due to the intricate administrative processes involved in the scheme. Another strategy was to invite financial providers to the villages on the island to map out the business potential and build the case for credit provision. Yet, due to the low loan amounts requested, the limited number of businesses and the projected high administrative and transaction costs, this approach did not work either,” she explains.

As a result, JUMEME decided to adopt an in-house financing approach, which enables micro-entrepreneurs to acquire productive use appliances on credit directly from it. The company leverages its financial means to help customers acquire the equipment. Through this scheme customers can order appliances that are procured by JUMEME and pay for them over an agreed period, typically six months.

On behalf of JUMEME, Energy 4 Impact has conducted a number of demand assessment and stimulation activities, as well as productive use awareness raising campaigns.

“We held several discussions with JUMEME on how best to support businesses that wanted to acquire new equipment,” says Diana. “We conducted an analysis to establish the viability of these businesses before obtaining the appliances and then worked with business owners to strengthen their business plan and skills. JUMEME wanted assurances that the entrepreneurs would be in a position to pay for the equipment over an agreed period, pay the electricity bills and still make a profit.”

So far, 12 businesses have been financed to acquire maize mills, rice huskers, cassava mills, welding and carpentry machines, a chicken incubator and ice block makers. All businesses have repaid or are about to finish repaying their loans.

Ten other entrepreneurs have taken additional equipment to expand or diversify their businesses, creating at least 82 employment opportunities as a result.

After being connected to the grid, 25-year-old Elias Malima, a motorcycle garage owner, was able to extend his working hours. He acquired an electric-powered air compressor for inflating motorbike tyres and since then he has more than doubled the number of customers he serves from 15 or fewer to around 35 a day and his income has increased by 50 percent. He has employed three workers and plans to open another motorcycle garage in a nearby village once JUMEME launches another mini-grid later in the year.

“As I was inflating motorcycle tyres manually, Energy 4 Impact’s mentors suggested I could get an electric-powered air compressor. They helped me write a business plan, which demonstrated the potential cash flow and the repayment plan. That is how I acquired the appliance from JUMEME on credit,” says Elias, who has fully repaid his air compressor.

Constantine Mulangi, a 67-year-old specialist in making window and door frames, repairing motorcycles and assorted kitchen accessories such as pots, pans and knives, received support to prepare a business plan for acquiring a welding machine and two metal grinders from JUMEME on credit.

“We also helped Constantine to develop a pay-back plan,” says Jesse Kyenkungu, Productive Use Field Officer at Energy 4 Impact in Tanzania. “This guided him on aspects such as the initial costs of the equipment acquired, the deposit made to obtain the appliances, the interest he would pay and the monthly deposits required to complete repayments within the agreed period.”

Like most mini-grids operating in rural contexts, JUMEME is faced with the challenge of keeping tariff costs low to create enough demand, while remaining profitable. Energy 4 Impact has helped JUMEME develop a tariff structure tailored to different users’ needs, which includes a domestic and a business tariff. It is also helping the company understand the customers’ pricing perception and sensitising customers on the need for varying tariff structures.

As a way of diversifying their income streams and enhancing its sustainability, JUMEME has started using the energy they produce to run their own fish freezing/chilling and delivery chain business to serve local markets. This provides the company with an additional cash flow, while offering vital services to the community, creating local jobs and contributing to village economic development.

Beyond Killing Tuberculosis

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How can we tolerate an infection without eliminating a pathogen?

Historically, our view of host defense against infection was that we must eliminate pathogens to eradicate disease. However, this perspective has recently been challenged as scientists have taken a lesson from plant biologists about an ancient strategy involving the ability to “tolerate” rather than “resist” infection to maintain health. This concept, referred to as “disease tolerance”, provides an opportunity to develop new strategies that mitigate the consequences of infection.

Since the discovery of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, or Mtb, (the bacteria causing TB) over a century ago, great progress has been made in defining strategies that facilitate elimination of the bacteria. For instance, the discovery of antibiotics was a major breakthrough in the treatment of active TB. However, greater than 90 per cent of TB-infected individuals tolerate the bacteria without any treatment.

Dr. Maziar Divangahi, a pulmonary immunologist at the Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre (RI-MUHC), and a professor of Medicine at McGill University in Montreal, has been trying to explain why the vast majority of people infected with Mtb can tolerate the infection without developing disease. Clinicians refer to this condition as “latent tuberculosis”, and it affects a quarter of the global population.

“TB is a perfect example of disease tolerance,” said Dr. Divangahi who is also the associate director of the Translational Research in Respiratory Diseases Program at the RI-MUHC and a member of the McGill International TB Centre.

Dr. Divangahi’s team found that rather than fighting to resist the pathogen, the body’s tolerance to Mtb is the key mechanism for preventing the spread of the infection. More surprisingly, they found that having excessive levels of T cells, which are known as soldiers of our immune system, could cause more harm than good.

“We always thought that having more T cells would provide better protection against TB. Instead, we found that it could imbalance disease tolerance causing extensive tissue damage and ultimately killing the host,” said Dr. Divangahi, lead author of the study published today in Science Immunology, who is the also the associate director of the Meakins-Christie Laboratories.

Disease tolerance versus host resistance

Our body’s defense system is divided into two arms: one is resistance, which aims to eliminate the pathogen, while the other is tolerance, which is designed to control the tissue damage caused by the infection.

“While disease tolerance is an established field of research in simple organisms such as plants, our understanding of this host defense strategy in humans is very limited,” said Dr. Divangahi.

Although, immunologists and vaccinologists have made progress in the study of host resistance to infectious diseases, little is known about the mechanisms of disease tolerance in humans.

A key protein in disease tolerance

Dr. Divangahi’s team determined that a protein in the mitochondria called cyclophilin D (CypD) acts as a key checkpoint for T cell activation. Through collaboration with Dr. Russell Jones from McGill University, who is an international expert in T cell biology, they identified that CypD is required for controlling T cell metabolism.

“T cells are traditionally considered to be important in eliminating Mtb,” said Dr. Divangahi. “However, we found that increasing T cell activation in mice by eliminating a metabolic checkpoint unexpectedly compromised host survival without any impact on the growth of Mtb.”

“In contrast to conventional thinking, we show that T cells are essential for regulating the body’s tolerance to Mtb infection,” explained one of the study’s first authors, Dr. Nargis Khan, who is currently a postdoctoral fellow in Dr. Divangahi’s lab at the RI-MUHC.

Giving the widespread drug resistance to various Mtb strains the limited pipeline of effective antibiotics and the lack of an efficient vaccine, alternative approaches to treat TB are urgent.

“If we could understand the mechanisms of ‘natural immunity’ that controls TB in 90-95 per cent of infected individuals,” said Dr. Divangahi,“we will able to design a novel therapy or vaccine to substantially reduce the world wide burden of this ancient disease.”

Study Reveals Obesity Link Between Grandmothers And Grandchildren

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Obesity is known to cluster in families, but most studies to date are limited to two generations. A new Pediatric Obesity study is the first to prospectively examine the relationship between grandparent and grandchild abdominal obesity.

The study found a consistent relationship between waist circumference in maternal grandmother and grandchild, with no relationship seen in other lineages. The association was seen at both time points analysed: when children were 5 years old and 9 years old. Data came from participants in the Lifeways Cross-Generation Cohort Study, which was initiated in 2001 in Ireland.

The results may suggest an intrauterine or environmental effect, with potential public health and clinical implications.

“These findings may have practical implications for family interventions at a time of global challenge in combating obesity,” said senior author Dr.Cecily Kelleher, of University College Dublin, in Ireland. “But they also emphasize the need to understand in scientific terms cross-generation transmission of non-communicable disease risk.”

US Boycott Of Chinese Researchers Could ‘Stifle’ Global Progress

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Academics are warning that proposed measures by the Trump administration to restrict Chinese researchers from working in the US could ‘stifle’ global progress.

The White House is discussing whether to limit the access of Chinese citizens to the United States, including restricting certain types of visas available to them and greatly expanding rules pertaining to Chinese researchers who work on projects with military or intelligence value at American companies and universities.

The potential boycott – which could directly affect 300,000 researchers – appears to be motivated by fears Chinese researchers may be involved in espionage activities and secretly transferring sensitive US discoveries to the Chinese government.

Researchers at the Universities of Bristol, Warwick and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) have drawn parallels with the sharp decline in international scientific cooperation after World War I, warning that a similar impact could be seen if new barriers are put in place by the US.

At the start of the war, the world split into the Allied (United Kingdom, France, later the United States, and several smaller countries) and the Central (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria) camps.

The involvement of scientists in the development of chemical weapons, and the extremely nationalistic stance taken by many in support of their homeland, pitted the opposing scientific camps against each other.

Immediately after the end of the war, Allied scientists enforced a boycott against Central scientists, which separated scientists into opposing camps until the mid-1920s.

A recent research paper published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, examined the effect of this boycott and shows that barriers to international scientific co-operation not only slow down the production of basic science, but they also harm the application of science in the development of new technologies.

Alessandro Iaria, one of the report’s authors and a Lecturer in Economics from the University of Bristol, said: “In addition to the immediate consequences that such a scientific boycott could have, there could also be longer-term, detrimental ramifications for world-wide scientific progress and technological innovation.

“While the overall effects of such a boycott are hard to estimate, there are lessons from history that can inform policy makers about the possible long-term effects for scientific progress and technological innovation.

“Our results suggest that science policy should be geared toward facilitating access to and capitalising on the potential catalytic effects of cutting-edge research in enhancing scientific progress. The global academic community has real concerns that a boycott on Chinese researchers could stifle this progress.”

The research, also carried out by Carlo Schwarz from the University of Warwick and Dr Fabian Waldinger from LSE, found increased barriers to international scientific co-operation during the boycott led to a decline in the number of papers published by scientists on both sides.

Those scientists who had relied on cutting-edge research from abroad published fewer papers than scientists who historically worked with research from their home country. For example, US biochemists who relied on research from Germany saw their productivity decline by 33 per cent compared to US biologists who used research from counterparts in America.

Importantly, the boycott not only affected Central scientists, but more broadly the entire international scientific community.

Affected scientists also produced fewer scientific breakthroughs, measured by the introduction of novel words in paper titles and by nominations for a Nobel Prize, and fewer of their scientific discoveries found application in patents.

Carlo Schwarz, from the University of Warwick, said: “The unique historic period allows us to study the significance of international scientific cooperation. Isaac Newton famously said that in his research he was ‘standing on the shoulders of giants’. Our work highlights the importance of access to the best existing scientific ideas for the creation of new research.”

Inner Ear Explains Human Migrations Out Of Africa

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Africa is widely accepted as the place of origin of the first modern humans, and their dispersal from the home continent is well documented by genetic data. Researchers partially funded by the European Research Council’s CAMERA project have released new findings about the early migration of humans out of Africa by analysing the cavity system of the inner ear.

The study was published in the ‘Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences’ journal. The international team of researchers led by paleoanthropologists from the University of Zurich used computed tomography (CT) to obtain high-resolution 3D models of the inner ear structure from populations all over the world. The three inner ear sections in question – the vestibule, semicircular canals and cochlea – are also known as the ‘bony labyrinth’ because of their looping, maze-like structure.

Differences within and between populations

The CT data was acquired from a sample of 221 ancient skulls, representing 22 worldwide populations and spanning the past 6 000 years. These were from Central Europe, Japan and Indonesia. Their analysis revealed a greater degree of labyrinth shape variety within populations than between populations.

In a news release by the University of Zurich, the researchers said “morphological data from the skull and skeleton often only allow limited conclusions to be drawn about the geographical dispersal pattern, especially because of the many ways in which the human skeleton adapts to local environmental conditions.” They emphasised that the morphology of the inner ear is “a good indicator for population history and human dispersal.”

Quoted in the same press release, Marcia Ponce de León, one of the researchers, said: “This typically human variation pattern is also known from comparative genetic data.” She added: “It shows that all humans are very closely related and have their roots in Africa.”

In their analysis, the researchers drew connections between morphology, genes and geography. They found that differences in the shape of the bony labyrinth increased as distance from Africa increased. They also showed that despite the functional role the bony labyrinth plays in assisting balance and hearing, human evolution has allowed for a surprisingly large amount of variation inside the ear.

DNA extraction

The team recommended that future studies capture high-resolution morphological data from skeletal samples before using destructive techniques, such as genetic sampling, to extract organic material from structures such as the petrous bones or teeth. The petrous portion of the skull’s temporal bone, one of the hardest, densest bones in the body, protects the inner ear structures.

“Because petrous bones have become prime targets of ancient DNA recovery, we propose that all destructive studies first acquire high-resolution 3D computed tomography data prior to any invasive sampling,” the researchers noted in the journal article. They concluded: “Such data will constitute an important archive of morphological variation in past and present populations, and will permit individual-based genotype-phenotype comparisons.”

The ongoing CAMERA (Characterizing Adaptation and Migration Events with Modern and Ancient Genomes) project that supported the study aims to generate and analyse data in order to understand the molecular basis of human adaptation to high altitude. It also investigates the timing of the Polynesian-South American contact. It will develop statistical approaches that combine ancient and modern genetic data to estimate the timing and the intensity of a selective sweep and an admixture event.

Cordis source: Based on project information and media reports

Tracking The Ultrafast Emergence Of Superconductivity

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UBC researchers have captured an unprecedented glimpse into the birth of high-temperature superconductivity in cuprates, settling a scientific debate and uncovering new avenues to explore the potential of other unconventional superconductors.

For this study, researchers studied cuprate unconventional superconductors, materials that begin to transition to superconductivity at a record high temperature of about -170 C. Most conventional superconductors require very low temperatures around absolute zero or -273 C. Superconductors display astonishing physical properties – such as magnetic levitation or lossless power transmission – that could lead to new technologies.

Scientists have long debated the key ingredient that enables the cuprates to become superconducting at high temperatures: Does superconductivity emerge when electrons bind together in pairs, known as Cooper pairs, or when those pairs establish macroscopic phase coherence?

Researchers at UBC’s Stewart Blusson Quantum Matter Institute (SBQMI) used a state-of-the-art, ultrafast laser funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation to answer the question.

The research indicates that the presence of an attractive “glue”, binding electrons into pairs, is necessary but not sufficient to stabilize the superconducting state. Rather, the Cooper pairs must behave coherently as a whole to establish a line of communication, with a single macroscopic quantum phase.

“Broadly speaking, you can imagine phase coherence akin to a large ensemble of arrows all aligned in the same direction,” said Fabio Boschini, lead author of the study and a postdoctoral fellow at the SBQMI. “When the Cooper pairs, sketched as arrows, point in random directions, phase coherence is lost.”

The phase coherence emerges on a time scale of few hundreds of femtoseconds (one femtosecond equals one quadrillionth of a second). Leveraging the pulsed laser sources and facilities at SBQMI’s new UBC-Moore Centre for Ultrafast Quantum Matter, researchers established a new investigative technique to “watch” what happens to the material’s electrons during those ultrafast timescales. The effort revealed the key role of phase coherence in driving the transition into the superconducting state of copper oxides.

“Thanks to very recent advances in pulsed-laser sources we are only just beginning to visualize the dynamic properties of quantum materials,” said Andrea Damascelli, leader of the research team and the scientific director of the SBQMI. “By applying these pioneering techniques, our research team aims to reveal the elusive mysteries of high-temperature superconductivity and other fascinating phenomena of quantum matter.”

The study was published in Nature Materials. 


Argentina’s ‘Sudden Stop’: Risk Of Emerging Markets Collapse – Analysis

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By Daniel Lacalle*

The recent collapse of the Argentine Peso and other emerging currencies is more than a warning sign.

It could be the arrival of a “sudden stop”. As I explain in Escape from the Central Bank Trap (BEP, 2017), a sudden stop happens when the extraordinary and excessive flow of cheap US dollars into emerging markets suddenly reverses and funds return to the U.S. looking for safer assets. The central bank “carry trade” of low interest rates and abundant liquidity was used to buy “growth” and “inflation-linked” assets in emerging markets. As the evidence of a global slowdown adds to the rising rates in the U.S. and the Fed’s QT (quantitative tightening), emerging markets lose the tsunami of inflows and face massive outflows, because the bubble period was not used to strengthen those countries’ economies, but to perpetuate their imbalances.

The Argentine Peso, at the close of this article, lost 17% annualized is one of the most devalued currencies in 2018. More than the Lira of Turkey or the Ruble of Russia.

What Explains This Drop?

For some time now, many of us have warned of the mistake of massively increasing money supply and using high liquidity to avoid much-needed structural reforms. In Argentina, the government of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner left a monetary hole close to 20% of GDP and massive inflation after years of trying to cover structural imbalances with increases in the money supply greater than 30-35% per year.

Unfortunately, as in other emerging markets, the urgent reforms were abandoned, and an alternative formula was tried. Issue great quantities of debt and continue financing a growing public spending with central bank money printing expecting economic growth and cheap debt would offset the growing fiscal and monetary hole.

This wrongly-called “soft adjustment” was justified because of the enormous liquidity in international markets and appetite for emerging markets’ debt driven by consensus estimates of a continued weakening of the US dollar. Many Latin American and emerging market economies fell into the trap. Now, when it stops, and the US dollar recovers some of its weakness, it is devastating.

High fiscal and trade deficits financed by short-term dollar inflows become time bombs.

Argentina even issued a one-hundred-year bond at a spectacularly low rate (8.25%) with a very high demand, more than 3.5 times bid-to-cover. That $ 2.5 billion issuance seemed crazy. A one-hundred-year bond from a nation that has defaulted at least six times in the previous hundred years! Worse of all, those funds were used to finance current expenditure in local currency.

The extraordinary demand for bonds and other assets in Argentina or Turkey was justified by expectations of reforms and a change that, as time passed, simply did not happen. Countries failed to control inflation, deliver lower than expected growth and imbalances soared just as the U.S. started to see some inflation, rates started to rise. Suddenly, the yield spread between the U.S. 10-year bond and emerging markets debt was unattractive, and liquidity dried up faster than the speed of light even with a modest decrease of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. Liquidity disappears because of extremely leveraged bets on one single trade – a weaker dollar, higher global growth- unwind.

However, another problem exacerbates the reaction. An aggressive increase in the monetary base by the Argentine central bank made inflation rise above 23%.

With an increase in the monetary base of 28% per year, and seeking to finance excess spending by printing money and raising debt to “buy time”, the seeds of the disaster were planted. Excess liquidity and the US dollar weakness stopped. Local currencies and external funding face risk of collapse.

The Sudden Stop. When most of the emerging economies entered into twin deficits -trade and fiscal deficits- and consensus praised “synchronized growth”, they were sealing their destiny: When the US dollar regains some strength, US rates rise due to an increase in inflation, the flow of cheap money to emerging markets is reversed. Synchronized indebted growth created the risk of synchronized collapse.

The worrying thing about Argentina and many other economies is that they should have learned from this after decades of similar episodes. But investment bankers and policymakers always say “this time is different”. It was not.

Now Argentina has pushed interest rates to 40% to stop the bleeding. With rampant inflation and economic growth concerns, the Peso bounce is likely to be short-lived.

Massive money supply growth does not buy time or disguise structural problems. It simply destroys the purchasing power of the currency and reduces the country’s ability to attract investment and grow.

This is a warning, and administrations should take this episode as a serious signal before the scare turns into a widespread emerging market crisis.

Structural imbalances are not mitigated by carrying out the same monetary policies that led countries to crisis and discredit.

Over the next three years, the International Monetary Fund estimates that flows to emerging economies will fall by up to $60 billion per annum, equivalent to 25% of the flows received between 2010 and 2017.

This warning has started with the weakest currencies, those were monetary imbalances were largest. But others should not feel relieved. This warning should not be used to delay the inevitable reforms, but to accelerate them. Unfortunately, it looks like policymakers will prefer to blame any external factor except their disastrous monetary and fiscal policies.

Originally published at dlacalle.com

About the author:
*Daniel Lacalle
has a doctorate in Economics and is the author of  Escape from the Central Bank Trap, Life In The Financial Markets and The Energy World Is Flat.

Source:
This article was published at the MISES Institute

Israel’s Immigration: A Unique Assimilation Story With A Message – Analysis

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The exodus of Soviet Jews to Israel in the 1990s was a unique event. This column shows that this immigration wave was distinctive for its large high-skilled cohort, and its quick integration into the domestic labour market. Immigration also changed the entire economic landscape, raising productivity and underpinning the information technological surge. Israel’s unusually robust assimilation of immigrants into the economic sphere and the electoral system has transformed the political balance and triggered significant changes in income distribution.

By Assaf Razin*

Immigration has far-reaching economic and social consequences. These include impacts on the labour market, international trade, economic growth, social and political structures, and so on (e.g. Lucas 2014). Migrants become part of the society of the receiving country, including its evolving culture and politics. Generally speaking, migration differs from the movement of other factor inputs (such as capital flows) in two fundamental ways. First, while high-skilled and therefore high-wage migrants may be net contributors to the fiscal system, low-skilled migrants are likely to be net recipients, thereby imposing an indirect tax on the taxpayer of the receiving country. Second, sooner or later, migrants may shift the balance of politics among ethnic groups, economic classes, or age groups, and reshape the distribution of wealth and disposable income – that is, immigrants influence the size of the welfare state directly through the electoral system, and indirectly, through their effect on market-based inequality.1

Israel’s Law of Return grants returnees immediate citizenship and, consequently, voting rights. An early study by Avner (1975) finds that the voting turnout rate of new immigrants was markedly lower than that of the established population. However, a later study conducted by Arian and Shamir (2002) about voting turnout patterns of new immigrants to Israel in the 2001 elections reverses the earlier finding. The new immigrants in this study are predominantly from the former Soviet Union. Arian and Shamir find no marked difference in voting turnout rates between the new immigrants and the established population.

The trigger

The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the destruction of communism in the USSR in 1987-1991 triggered the recent wave of migration of Soviet Jews to various parts of the world, including Israel (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Emigration of Jews and their family members from the former USSR to Israel, the US and Germany (in thousands)

Source: demoscope.ru

Whereas all migrant-destinations were capped by the migration policies of the receiving country, Israel has been an exception – immigration into Israel is free by Israel’s Lawof Return.

Migrant characteristics

The professional, social, attitudinal, and behavioural characteristics of the 1990s Jewish exodus cohort proved to be distinctive. Immigrants came mostly from urban areas, with advanced education systems. Their skill composition is heavily skewed towards high education levels – i.e. towards relatively higher labour income. Their share in the population was sizable at almost 20%, while their average family size (2.32 standard persons) was lower than the national average (2.64), indicating fewer dependents. Most important was their higher education level, and consequently their higher labour income. The average number of schooling years of the new immigrants was 14.0, compared to the national average of only 13.3 (Eilam 2014).

Even more striking was the percentage of heads of households with bachelors’ degrees – 41.1% among the new immigrants, compared to a national average of just 29.5%. The higher education level and the lower family size can presumably explain the income gap that resulted. The average labour income per standard person of the new immigrants was 4,351 Israeli shekel, compared to a national average of only 4,139 shekel. Notably, this gap existed even though the new immigrants had lower work seniority than the established population.

Catching up

Cohen and Hsieh (2001) show that average effective wages of native Israelis fell and the return to capital increased during the height of the influx in 1990-91. By 1997 however, both average wages and the return to capital had returned to pre-immigration levels due to an investment boom induced by the initial increase in the return to capital. As predicted by the standard intertemporal model of the current account (Razin 1995), the investment boom was largely financed by external borrowing. Eckstein and Weiss (2004) find that in the ten years following arrival, wages of highly skilled immigrants grew at 8% a year. Rising return to skills, occupational transitions, accumulated experience in Israel, and an economy-wide rise in wages account for 3.4%, 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.5% respectively. They do not reject the hypothesis that the return for experience converged to that of natives, and that immigrants received a higher return for their unmeasured skills. There is some downgrading in the occupational distribution of immigrants relative to that of the established work force.

Assimilation in the second generation

The second generation of Jews, whose parents immigrated from the former Soviet Union, experienced significantly higher upward mobility than all other ethnic groups. Based on Aloni (2017), Table 1 shows the estimated probability of the second generation outranking the first generation in the full sample, and the groups’ relative income rank convergence rates. Having a higher probability to outrank parents depends highly on the relative income position of the group in the population’s income distribution – thus, for example, Ethiopian and Arab children exhibit high upward mobility. However, controlling for their initial position, former Soviet Union immigrants to Israel experienced the highest pace of upward mobility, while other groups converged to the mean more slowly.

Table 1 Intergenerational mobility indicators by Israeli ethnic groups

Notes: First row is the probability of the child of reaching higher percentile in children’s generation distribution compared to parents’ average percentile in their income distribution. Second row is the regression results of child-rank on the population groups’ dummies, controlling for parents’ income rank using 100 percentile dummies. Base group is of families with Asia / North Africa origins. The sample is of children born amongst 1979 to 1982 matched to parents using administrative data. Standard errors in parentheses; upper asterisks indicate ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.
Source: Aloni (2017).

The exceptional upward mobility of former Soviet Union immigrants, from first to second generation, is also indicated in Figure 2. It shows the distribution of children of parents from the bottom decile. Comparing the former Soviet Union immigrants and the general population, the former experienced a greater upward mobility, with children reaching higher earning ranks and dispersing more evenly across the deciles.

Figure 2 Earning deciles of children born to bottom-decile parents

Source: Aloni (2017).

Inequality

Figure 3 demonstrates that the redistribution Gini coefficient upturned in 1989 and continued to rise until 2001. The implied fall in income redistribution of more than a decade follows the Soviet-Jew immigration wave. The figure demonstrates a strong rise in income inequality between 1990 and 2003, which is a combination of declining market income inequality, and a marked fall in redistribution. The influx of high-skilled immigrants can explain these two conflicting trends: a rising middle class thanks to high-skill migration, and a rebalancing political-economy-based income redistribution policy.

Figure 3 Gini coefficients: Total income, net income-inequality and redistribution 1979-2015

*The difference between total and net-income coefficients

Source:Dahan (2017)
Notes: The years 99′-02′ do not include East-Jerusalem population. The years 12′-15′ do not include the Bedouin population.

Social benefits

Figure 4 highlights the low ranking of Israel in terms of its provision of social services per capita.2High defence expenditures may have crowded out social services to a greater extent than in the other OECD countries. However, even though defence expenditures as a share of Israel’s GDP followed a distinct downward trend over the last 35 years, Israel diverges down in the provision of social expenditures, relative to the OECD countries. Figure 4 plots the social expenditure per capita for Israel against a selected group of countries. Israel is at the bottom of the group.3

Figure 4 Social expenditures per capita, selected countries

Note: Constant 2005 PPPs, in US dollars
Source: OECD library

Political-economy theory

Razin and Sadka (2017) provide a stylised general equilibrium model of Israel’s immigration story, to understand better the balance of the political-economic forces at play, and to identify winners and losers (the model is based on Meltzer and Richard 1981 and Razin et al. 2002a,b).

Razin and Sadka (2017) assume two labour skills, unskilled, u, and skilled, s. Immigrants come with no capital. The native-born population’s distribution of income depends on heterogeneous cost of education, and human capital investment. There is an upward sloping supply function for each skill group, depending on the income accorded to immigrants in the destination country.

The exercise is to shift the supply curve for skilled workers and to trace out the changes in a political economy equilibrium, where immigrants can vote on the generosity of the welfare state by a majority vote on taxes and social benefits. Following the supply-side shock of skilled migration, the unskilled native-born lose their dominance to the skilled migrants, who are now dictating their most-preferred regressive tax-transfer policy.

Figure 5 describe the political-equilibrium consequences of the immigration shock. Even though the fiscal system becomes regressive, every income group becomes better off, including native-born and high-skill immigrants, except for the pre-existing unskilled immigrants. The model gives some insights into what is shown about income-inequality in Figure 3 and social benefits in Figure 4 for the Israeli immigration episode – a rise in income inequality between 1990 and 2003, which is a combination of declining market income inequality (through a strengthened middle class) with a more than offsetting fall in redistribution (through a switch in income redistribution).

Figure 5 The effects of the immigration-supply shock

Notation:

Conclusion

The extraordinary experience of Israel, which has received three quarter of a million migrants from the FSU within a short time, is also relevant for the current debate about winners and losers from immigration.

About the author:
*Assaf Razin
, Bernard Schwartz Professor (Emeritus), Tel Aviv University; former Barbara and Steven Friedman Professor of International Economics, Cornell University.

References:
Aloni, T (2017), “Intergenerational Mobility in Israel,” MA Dissertation, School of Economics, Tel Aviv University.

Arian, A, and M Shamir (2002), “Abstaining and Voting in 2001”, in A Arian and M Shamir (eds.), The Elections in Israel – 2001, Israel Democracy Institute.

Avner, U, (1975), “Voter Participation in the 1973 Election” in A Arian (ed.), Elections in Israel – 1973, Academic Press, pp. 203-218.

Bank of Israel (2014), “The general government, its services and financing”, Annual Report, chapter 6.

Bank of Israel (2016), Annual Report.

Cohen, S, and C-T Hsieh (2001), “Macroeconomic and Labor Market Impact of Russian Immigration in Israel”, working paper.

Dahan, M (2007), “Why has the Labor-Force Participation Rateof Israel Men Fallen?”, Israel Economic Review 5(2): 95-128.

Dahan, M (2017), “Income Inequality in the 2000s,” mimeo, Hebrew.

Eckstein, Z, and Y Weiss (2004) “On the Wage Growth of Immigrants: Israel, 1990–2000”, Journal of the European Economic Association 2(4): 665–695.

Eilam, N (2014), “The Fiscal Impact of Immigrants: The Case of Israel” MA thesis, The Eitan Berglas School of Economic, Tel-Aviv University.

Lucas, R E B (2014), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, Edward Elgar.

Meltzer, A H, and S F Richard (1981), “A Rational Theory of the Size of Government”, Journal of Political Economy ,89 (5), 914–927.

Razin, A (2018), Israel and the World Economy: The Power of Globalization, MIT Press.

Razin, A, and E Sadka(2017), “Migration-Induced Redistribution with and without Migrants’ Voting,” Finanz Archiv, Public Finance Analysis, special issue in honour of Hans Werner Sinn.

Razin, A, E Sadka, and P Swagel (2002a), “The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State”, Journal of Political Economy, 110: 900-918.

Razin, A, E Sadka, and P Swagel (2002b),“Tax burden and migration: a political economy theory and evidence”, Journal of Public Economics 85(2): 167–190.

Strawczynski, M (forthcoming), “Taxation policy in Israel between 2000 and 2015”, in A Ben-Bassat, R Grounau, and A Zussman (eds.), Israel Economy in the last twenty years, Falk Institute.

Endnotes:
[1] See Razin (2018) for the various ways that Israel benefitted from being a part of the post-World War II globalization wave, with capital, finance, and goods mobility at its core.

[2] Social expenditures temporarily increased during the migration wave, thanks to a one-shot absorption-type expenditure on new immigrants. They declined at the beginning of the 2000s.

[3] A significant change in re-distribution over time is potentially related to a reduction in income taxes. Income Tax fell from 30% of revenues in 2000 to 20.4% in 2015. At the same time, VAT fell rose from 24.9% of tax revenues to 30.1%. See also Bank of Israel (2014), and Strawczynski (forthcoming).

The Dangers Of Failing Middle East States – Analysis

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By Kobi Michael and Yoel Guzansky*

In an address to a prominent British think tank, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu recently argued that before establishing a Palestinian state, it would be necessary to internalize what had happened in the broader Middle East during the past few years—a reference to the collapsing regional order and the attendant proliferation of failed states. “It’s time,” he said, “we reassessed whether the modern model we have of sovereignty, and unfettered sovereignty, is applicable everywhere in the world.”[1]

Netanyahu expressed a wider and deepening concern over the long-term consequences of the on-going Arab upheavals, euphorically misdiagnosed at their onset as the “Arab Spring.” These upheavals have toppled a number of established regimes and destabilized several states at a horrific human and material cost. But they also have called into question the century-long Arab system based on territorial nation-states by accelerating processes and undercurrents that have long been in operation, turning many of these entities into failed states. By most accepted measures, the Palestinian Authority is also a failed entity. Would a Palestinian state fare any better?

The Failed State Phenomenon

According to the U.N.’s definition, “failed states” are political entities that demonstrate little or no ability to provide their citizens with basic security.[2] Such states suffer from at least three key failings: a weak government that lacks legitimacy and does not enjoy a monopoly on the means of violence; extreme political and societal fragmentation; and severe economic weakness. To these can be added the lack of correlation between nation and state, especially when various national or ethnic groups aspire to independence or view themselves as belonging to a neighboring state.[3] This phenomenon is particularly salient in the contemporary Middle East where the post-World War I agreements partitioned the defunct Ottoman Empire into artificial states that grouped together diverse ethnic groups, rival religions, and, in some cases, speakers of different languages.

American political scientist William Zartman argues that, in most cases, the process of state failure is gradual and prolonged, rather than sudden, as in a coup d’état or revolt. He notes that states that suffer from internal disintegration (primarily because of identity politics—religious, ethnic, etc.) and simultaneously are characterized by weak or non-functioning institutions are liable to become failed states. In such states, failure intensifies in a kind of vicious circle. The weakness of the state’s institutions reinforces the fragmentation, which in turn further weakens the institutions and their legitimacy.[4]

The last two decades show that most of today’s active conflicts, including international terrorism, emanate from failed states, which either cannot control the spillover of domestic turmoil beyond their borders or deliberately seek to export it in an attempt to reduce the threat at home. In other words, crises that develop in failed states also harm their surroundings: They are the biggest generators of humanitarian crises, displaced people, and refugees; they endanger regime stability in neighboring states; they enable access to sophisticated weapons stolen from collapsing military facilities, and they constitute fertile soil for the advent of extremist and terror groups. In the context of the Middle East, they encourage subversive activities among Muslim com-munities in Western countries in a way that might destabilize those countries’ social order.

These effects are having a global impact, not least since the international community has a limited ability to intervene in failed states, to suppress the violent rebel forces that operate in them, or to support the stabilization of nation-states and the regional system. These limits are the product of a lack of political will needed to intervene in areas of conflict; the inherent conceptual and operational weakness of peacekeeping and state-building missions; and the under-standing that there is a limited lifespan for intervention in these areas, based on the mostly negative experience with such past missions. To these should be added the problems resulting from competition among aid organizations and difficulty in coordinating among missions operating simultaneously in regions of conflict. These obstacles reduce even further the chances of success and might even exacerbate the situation.[5] Small wonder that successive U.S. administrations have identified the problem of failed states as a growing security threat to the national interest.[6]

The Failed Arab State

According to The Fund for Peace indices of failed states, most of the states in the worst stage of failure are Muslim-majority and located in sub-Saharan Africa.
According to The Fund for Peace indices of failed states, most of the states in the worst stage of failure are Muslim-majority and located in sub-Saharan Africa.

According to The Fund for Peace indices of failed states, thirty-three are defined as “fragile” or “in an advanced process of collapse.” Most of the states in the worst stage of failure are Muslim-majority and located in sub-Saharan Africa. The same index for 2015 included even more Arab states at higher levels of state failure. In the 2016 index, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq were at the highest levels ever.[7] Likewise, the most recent U.N. Arab Human Development Report (AHDR), published in November 2016, identified the Arab world as the region that has experienced the most rapid increase in war and violent conflict over the past decade and determined that the Middle East now encompasses “the largest number of countries that have become failed states.” The report predicts that almost three out of four Arabs will live in “countries with high risk of conflict” by 2020.[8]

The roots of this stark state of affairs can be traced back to the post-World War I creation of the Arab territorial nation-state system, which consisted of artificial entities with weak self-identities, territories that were often poorly suited to their populations because of diverse or rival ethnic groups, religions, and languages, and regimes that lacked legitimacy. Most Arab states failed to shape a solid and agreed-upon national ethos during their years of existence, and their governability and relative stability were exclusively reliant on the iron hand with which they were ruled. Occasional attempts to achieve legitimacy via sociopolitical ideologies, such as Baathist pan-Arabism or Nasserite socialism, plus fabricated historical narratives—Iraqis as descendants of the Babylonians; Palestinians as descendants of the Canaanites—were to little avail. The deep religious, ethnic, and national schisms plaguing local societies continued to fester and would have probably continued to do so for decades more had it not been for a unique convergence of developments including rapid globalization, the collapse of the Soviet bloc, the advent of jihadist groups, and deepening economic conditions in the Arab states, which combined to unleash the Arab upheavals. These in turn accelerated the failing process of the Arab nation-state system to the extent of undermining its underlying nation-state basis.

Several of these states—Yemen, Libya, and to some extent, Syria, as well as the Palestinian Authority-ruled West Bank and the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip—no longer exist as coherent states with central governments capable of enforcing authority on most of their territory, having instead become arenas of violent and bloody conflict. The weakness of their central governments and loss of control over organized violence have led to the expansion of ungoverned peripheries. These regions have become incubators for terrorist organizations and non-state actors and serve as their “launch sites” into the rest of the region. They accomplish this expansion by establishing territory-based continuums or by creating a network structure without such a continuum. The self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS), for example, created a combination of territorial continuum, such as in Syria and Iraq, and network expansion in the Sinai Peninsula and Libya by means of organizations such as Ansar Bait al-Maqdis in Sinai (Wilayat Sina), which has sworn allegiance to ISIS and its leader. During its existence, ISIS developed and broadened its network to all continents, and today, after its territorial demise, it is still able to operate its network and to inspire many individuals to terrorism wherever they are.

Hybrid Non-state Actors

For more than three years, ISIS was a threat across vast territory in Iraq and Syria. As the nation-states in the Middle East continue to disintegrate, the power of such non-state hybrid actors is likely to increase.
For more than three years, ISIS was a threat across vast territory in Iraq and Syria. As the nation-states in the Middle East continue to disintegrate, the power of such non-state hybrid actors is likely to increase.

New entities have arisen on the ruins of the failed Middle Eastern states. While they are more than organizations, they are not states and can, therefore, be referred to as hybrid non-state actors.[9] These entities develop supranational identities and operate in the name of a universal ideology. They reject the Arab nation-state model and do not recognize borders, thus undermining regional and global stability. Their political goal is to create an Islamic caliphate in the entire region and, at a later stage, beyond it. They use violence extensively to intimidate opponents and also make efficient use of social networks.

Their universal ideology notwithstanding, these are territory-based organizations at this stage. For more than three years, ISIS controlled vast territory in Iraq and Syria, which it envisaged as part of an ever expanding caliphate rather than an ordinary nation-state. The Islamic State was effectively a failed state similar to the Arab states it sought to subvert, which suffered from the same endemic flaws that brought about ISIS’s eventual demise. Likewise, for all their expansionist, Islamist ideology, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemenite Houthis, which effectively dominate their respective states, have stopped short of challenging these states’ legitimacy. They have, nevertheless, striven to reshape the regional order: Hezbollah through its heavy involvement in the Syrian civil war; the Houthis by fighting the Saudis. And they did it at the behest of a resurgent Iran, which, though a territorial nation-state for much longer than the Arab states, has rejected the international order based on the territorial nation-state since its 1979 transformation into the Islamic Republic. In the words of the Islamic Republic’s founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini:

The Iranian revolution is not exclusively that of Iran, because Islam does not belong to any particular people … We will export our revolution throughout the world because it is an Islamic revolution. The struggle will continue until the calls “there is no god but Allah and Muhammad is the messenger of Allah” are echoed all over the world.[10]

The same applies to Hamas, the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, which subordinates its aim of creating a Palestinian state on Israel’s ruins to the wider goal of establishing the caliphate, in line with the outlook of its Egyptian parent
organization. In the words of senior Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Zahar:

Islamic and traditional views reject the notion of establishing an independent Palestinian state … In the past, there was no independent Palestinian state …. [Hence] our main goal is to establish a great Islamic state, be it pan-Arabic or pan-Islamic.[11]

As the movement’s slogan puts it: “Allah is [Hamas’s] goal, the Prophet its model, the Qur’an its Constitution, Jihad its path, and death for the case of Allah its most sublime belief.”[12]

As the nation-states in the Middle East continue to disintegrate, the power of such non-state hybrid actors is likely to increase, not least since the Arab upheavals have demonstrated that the most serious threats to the territorial nation-state system are internal, not external. It has been mainly domestic opponents who have resisted both the longtime ruling dictatorships and the new regimes that have tried to establish their legitimacy. This was the case in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Yemen, the Palestinian Authority, and, to some extent, Egypt.

The likelihood that new regimes will manage to establish themselves despite their many opponents continues to be influenced by several factors: national unity with a lower level of fragmentation and a sense of a shared ethos; the political and functional stability and efficiency of state institutions; the state’s economic resources, and its military power. The combination of all these factors determines how new regimes consolidate their rule. Sadly, so far, this combination of factors has led to greater violence and the intensification of intrastate conflicts. Hence, it is reasonable to assume that there will not be any rapid improvement in the situation of the weak and failed states in the Middle East and North Africa. Furthermore, one can predict that, in the short and medium term, instability will spread to more states and will deepen in states that are already unstable.[13] This trend does not augur well for the region’s security and might negatively affect the international order.

The Failed Palestinian Authority

Against this backdrop, Netanyahu’s concerns about the viability of a prospective Palestinian state seem quite reasonable. During its twenty-three years of existence, the Palestinian Authority (PA)—dominated by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)—has been a semi-state, which, since January 1996, has maintained control over some 95 percent of the Palestinian population in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. In that time, the PA has failed abysmally to establish stable and functional state structures despite the vast resources committed to this end by the international community.

By most common parameters, the PA is a failed entity, beginning with its total lack of control over the means of violence within its territory. Yasser Arafat, who headed the PA from its establishment in May 1994 to his death in November 2004, chose not to disarm the terror groups operating under the PA’s jurisdiction as required by the Oslo accords, including his own PLO organization. Instead, he allowed the existence of armed groups in the PA territories in order to use them against Israel while distancing the responsibility from the PA. His successor, Mahmoud Abbas, despite some efforts to implement his vision of “one rule, one law, one gun,” did not succeed in changing this stark reality significantly.

Nor did Arafat or Abbas use the massive international aid—the largest per capita in the world—for the construction of public institutions and infrastructure, let alone for the development of a civil society and participatory political processes required for the creation of a viable, functioning, and democratic Palestinian state. Instead, they established a corrupt and repressive entity in the worst tradition of Arab dictatorships, rife with corruption, nepotism, and cronyism, which rapidly lost its public legitimacy.[14] According to a recent survey by Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaky, most Palestinians have come to consider the PA “a burden on the Palestinian people”; 79 percent of respondents viewed it as corrupt to the extent of demanding its dissolution; 65 percent of the public wanted Abbas to resign.[15]

To make matters worth, Arafat’s encouragement of the growing militarization of the West Bank and Gaza backfired in grand style by enabling Hamas to eclipse the PLO as the dominant political and military power in the territories. In January 2006, the Islamist group won a landslide victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections, and in June 2007, it expelled the PLO from Gaza and took control of the strip with the PA “hovering between survival and collapse—display[ing] many of the traits of a failed state.”[16]

The split between the West Bank and Gaza generated a rupture in Palestinian society by creating not only two disparate geographic, political, economic, and cultural units but rival entities as well, locked in a zero-sum game for intra-Palestinian hegemony.

This endemic rivalry has been further exacerbated by the broader regional upheavals, with Hamas supported by the Iran-Turkey-Qatar axis and the PA backed by the pragmatic Sunni coalition led by Riyadh and Cairo. This made the October 2017 Fatah-Hamas reconciliation agreement yet another transient respite in the ongoing fight for hegemony. The conflict is bound to resume, underscoring the perennial dysfunctionality of the Palestinian Authority and, for that matter, of a prospective Palestinian state.

Conclusion

After seven years of upheavals, the Arab world is immensely changed, with many of its members in an accelerated process of state failure. While it would be premature to write off the Middle Eastern nation-state system, key states including Syria and Iraq as well as Libya and Yemen are unlikely to retain their past structures, primarily because none of them has developed a coherent national identity and all suffer from deep sociopolitical schisms. Each state’s only chance of survival is probably either within a loose federation where ethnic and religious minorities and tribes enjoy broad autonomy, or as smaller and more coherent states that conform more closely to their demographic, religious, and sociopolitical components. Iraq, for example, could be divided into three states—Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish—while Syria could be split into Alawite, Sunni, and Kurdish states.

Returning to Netanyahu’s cautionary note, the Arab upheavals underscore the necessity of a paradigm change if the Palestinian state-building is to come to successful fruition rather than culminate in an all-too-familiar failed state. This requires reconstructing society and state institutions in a bottom-up process that ensures broad legitimacy via free sociopolitical participation, redistribution of governing assets and political power, and, above all, exclusive state control of the means of violence. Whether the current Palestinian leadership can rise to this historic challenge remains to be seen.

*About the authors:
Kobi Michael is a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv University, and the author of sixteen books and monographs and more than fifty scholarly articles. Yoel Guzansky is a research fellow at INSS, having formerly served on the National Security Council in the Prime Minister’s Office. The article draws on their book The Arab World on the Road to State Failure (INSS, 2017).

Source:
Middle East Quarterly Spring 2018 Volume 25: Number 2

Notes

[1] “Netanyahu in London: Palestinian sovereignty may not work,Middle East Monitor: Memo, Nov. 3, 2017; “Israel’s Foreign Policy Priorities,” interview with Robin Niblett, Chatham House, London, Nov. 3, 2017.

[2] “Resolution 60/1 adopted by the General Assembly: 2005 World Summit Outcome,” U.N. General Assembly, New York, Oct. 24, 2005.

[3] Benjamin Miller, “When and How Regions Become Peaceful: Potential Theoretical Pathways to Peace,” The International Studies Review, June 2005.

[4] I. William Zartman, Collapsed States: The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1995), pp. 1-11.

[5] Jennifer G. Cooke and Richard Downie, “Rethinking Engagement in Fragile States,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C., July 23, 2015; Linda Pullman, The Crisis Caravan: What’s Wrong with Humanitarian Aid? (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2010).

[6] See, for example, “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” The White House, Washington, D.C., Sept. 2002, p. 1; “Remarks of President Barack Obama—State of the Union Address As Delivered,” The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, Washington, D.C., Jan. 13, 2016.

[7] Fragile States Index, The Fund for Peace, Washington, D.C., 2016.

[8] Arab Human Development Report 2016: Youth and the Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality, United Nations Development Programme, New York, 2016, p. 175.

[9] Carmit Valensi, “Non-state Actors: Theoretical Limitations in View of the Changing Reality in the Middle East,” Military and Strategic Affairs, Mar. 2015.

[10] Efraim Karsh, Islamic Imperialism: A History (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2006), p. 217.

[11] “Exclusive Interview with Hamas Leader,” The Media Line, Sept. 22, 2005; Walid Mahmoud Abdelnasser, The Islamic Movement in Egypt: Perceptions of International Relations, 1967-81 (London: Kegan Paul, 1994), p. 39.

[12] Karsh, Islamic Imperialism, pp. 213-4.

[13] Yoel Guzansky and Benedetta Berti, “The Arab Awakening ‘Cascade’ of Failing States: Dealing with Post-Revolutionary Stabilization Challenges,Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Apr. 12, 2013.

[14] Kobi Michael, “The Palestinian Authority: The dangerous transition from failing entity to failing state,” Israel Affairs, Feb. 2017, pp. 385-410.

[15] Palestinian Opinion Poll #57, The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR), Ramallah, Sept. 2015, pp. 2, 4-5.

[16] Michael Eisenstadt, “The Palestinians: Between State Failure and Civil War,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, D.C., Policy Focus no. 78, Dec. 2007.

Middle Eastern Rivalry Spills Onto Asian Soccer Pitches – Analysis

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Saudi Arabia’s bitter rivalry with Iran has spilled onto Asian soccer pitches with the newly created South West Asian Football Federation (SWAFF) reflecting the kingdom’s bid for regional hegemony, including domination of soccer.

Saudi Arabia’s most recent victory on the pitch was evident in the absence in SWAFF, formed by a merger of the West Asian and South Asian football federations, of almost half of the members of the West Asian grouping, including Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria. Also, not included were South Asia’s Nepal and Bhutan.

The absence of Jordan and Palestine speaks volumes about the depth of polarization in the Middle East and the willingness of some states to quietly but firmly resist Saudi aspirations.

So does the fact that Asian Football Confederation (AFC) president Sheikh Salman bin Ebrahim Al Khalifa, a member of Bahrain’s ruling family that is closely associated with Saudi Arabia, did not attend SWAFF’s founding in the Red Sea port of Jeddah. SWAFF will be initially headed by Adel Ezzat, the president of the Saudi football federation.

Mr. Al-Khalifa’s absence fuelled speculation that SWAFF seeks to create a Saudi-dominated governing body in Asia in competition with the AFC and launch Asian soccer championships that would compete with AFC tournaments.

The AFC groups all Asian soccer federations, including Iran and other countries at odds with Saudi Arabia’s regional power-grabbing efforts.

“The South West Asian Association aims to develop the sport in Asia and hold many tournaments and events on an annual basis,” SWAFF said in a news release that also announced Saudi sports czar Turki al-Sheikh, a close associate of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as its honorary president.

Pakistani news reports suggested that the Saudi effort to impose its will on Asian soccer may not be smooth sailing. Pakistan Football Federation (PFF) officials refused to confirm membership in SWAFF despite the participation of two its representatives in the Jeddah meeting.

The PFF has close ties to Mr. Al-Khalifa and its Bahrain counterpart which funds the salary of the Pakistani national team’s coach.

SWAFF has been tight-lipped about its ambitions with members reluctant to discuss the federation’s purpose in public. “I am not authorised to talk about it,” said All India Football Federation general secretary Kushal Das.

There was also no explanation for the exclusion of Nepal and Bhutan. Sources said the founding meeting of SAFF had been so hastily arranged that Nepal and Bhutan were unable to attend. They said the two countries were likely to join at a later stage.

With Saudi Arabia and the UAE, its closest regionally ally, heavily invested in Central Asian nations, SWAFF is likely to want to expand to include former Soviet members of the Central Asian Football Federation (CAFF).

Mr. Al-Khalifa recognized Central Asia as a separate region within the AFC after CAFF was established in 2014 at the initiative of Iran. Iran swapped its membership in the West Asian Football Federation (WAFF) for association with CAFF, a grouping in which it expected to be able to wield greater influence.

“Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are seeking a political return on their investment in Central Asia” said Gulf expert Theodore Karasik in an article discussing the Gulf states’ Central Asia strategy.

Central Asia is likely to emerge as an ever more important Saudi-Iranian battlefield in the wake of Mr. Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 international agreement that curbed the Islamic republic’s nuclear program given plans for multiple pipelines, some of which include Iran.

A potential inclusion in SWAFF of Central Asian soccer federations at the expense of Iran would tally with Saudi Arabia’s reversal of its attitude toward the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Once one of only three countries that recognized the Taliban when the group controlled Afghanistan in the late 1990s, Saudi Arabia today is pressuring the group to engage in negotiations with the government of President Ashraf Ghani in a bid to ensure that a Sunni Muslim ultra-conservative force shares power in a country that borders on Iran.

To achieve that, Saudi Arabia has moved from supporting the Taliban to trying to isolate it. Saudi Arabia has endorsed US allegations of Iranian support for the Taliban and is seeking to force the group or dissident elements within it to come to the negotiating table.

The Saudi pressure is also intended to thwart plans for a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline.

Saudi Arabia initiated the creation of SWAFF after Jordanian Prince Ali bin Al Hussein, the head of the WAFF, a former FIFA presidential candidate, and advocate of reform of soccer governance that has been wracked by multiple corruption scandals, reportedly resisted Saudi pressure to move the headquarters of the West Asian group from Jordan to Saudi Arabia.

The refusal amounted to a rejection of Saudi efforts to create one more building block for regional dominance.

Relations between Jordan and Saudi Arabia have been strained over Amman’s refusal to back the 11-month-old Saudi-United Arab Emirates-led boycott of Qatar and Jordan’s refusal earlier this year to succumb to Saudi pressure regarding its participation earlier this year in a summit of Islamic leaders in Istanbul called to confront US President Donald J. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Palestine’s exclusion from SAFF suggests Saudi irritation with Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ refusal to accept the United States as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict following Mr. Trump’s Jerusalem decision and protests by soccer fans against a Saudi effort to impose a coach on the Palestinian national team who has close ties to the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia’s bid for regional soccer hegemony runs parallel to Mr. Trump’s vow to sanction non-American companies that do business with Iran in the wake of the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement. It suggests that Saudi Arabia intends to expand its battle with Iran into areas beyond the Middle East and sectors that claim to be aloof of politics.

In doing so, the Saudi move challenges international sports governance’s insistence on a separation of sports and politics and is likely to put pressure on East Asian nations who are influential soccer powerhouses within the AFC and maintain close economic and diplomatic ties to the kingdom but have studiously remained on the side lines of its battles.

Pakistan’s General Bajwa Named In List Of Worlds’ Most Powerful – OpEd

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There are nearly 7.5 billion humans on planet Earth, but the chosen 75 men and women make the world turn, claims Forbes Magazine. Forbes’ annual ranking of The World’s Most Powerful People identifies one person out of every 100 million whose actions, as per their analysis, mean the most. Apparently, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa is included in those 75 people who has made up to the list, by superseding his slice of 100 million people.

He is designated the crown for his efforts in begetting peace in the U.S. ally state by fighting away the terrorist groups present in the area, in addition to managing a complex relationship with India on its eastern border. Two years into his tenure as the head of the world’s sixth largest Army, Qamar Javed Bajwa has established himself as a mediator. The rift between India and Pakistan is improving, partly thanks to his efforts.

To compile the ranking of The World’s Most Powerful People, the magazine considered hundreds of candidates from various walks of life and measured their power along four dimensions. First, it was checked whether the candidate has power over lots of people. Next, the financial resources controlled by each person was assessed. Then, their power in multiple spheres was calculated. Forbes maintains that there are only 75 slots on the list, so being powerful in just one area is often not enough. Hence their picks project their influence in myriad ways. Lastly, they made sure that the candidates actively used their power.

To calculate the final rankings, a panel of Forbes editors ranked all of the candidates in each of these four dimensions of power, and those individual rankings were averaged into a composite score.

General Bajwa is a newcomer to the list along with 16 others on the list this year, including Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud – the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, who is thought to be the fulcrum around which the Middle Eastern geopolitics moves for the next generation. Other new members include Jerome H. Powell – chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Darren Woods – CEO of Exxon Mobil, Moon Jae-in – President of South Korea and Robert Mueller – Special Counsel for the U.S. Department of Justice.

General Qamar Javed Bajwa was appointed as the 10th Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan by the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in December 2016.

He was commissioned on 24 October 1980 in 16 Baloch Regiment, which has produced three out of the sixteen army chiefs in the past — General Yahya, General Aslam Baig and General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani.

General Bajwa is also a graduate of Canadian Forces Command and Staff College, (Toronto) Canada, Naval Post Graduate University, Monterey (California) USA and National Defence University, Islamabad, and has served as an instructor at School of Infantry and Tactics, Quetta, Command and Staff College, Quetta and NDU, Islamabad.

Prior to the appointment as the Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan Army, General Bajwa served as the Inspector General Training and Evaluation from 2015–16 and as field commander of the X Corps from 2013 to 2015 which is responsible for the area along the Line of Control. In addition, he also served as a peacekeeper in the UN mission in Congo as a Brigadier and served as the brigade commander in 2007. Forbes also cited former Chief of Indian Army Staff General Bikram Singh’s annotations regarding the Pakistani COAS. In fact, General Bajwa has served in Congo under General Bikram Singh who was all praises for Bajwa’s performance.

The COAS has vast experience in the military field, especially in significant areas such as Baltistan and Kashmir. His approach towards Pakistan’s arch rivals and neighbors India remains passive yet firm which makes him a composed General ready to act with a clear mind rather than being impulsive. He has remained professional and away from politics throughout his term in the army which also adds to his qualities as a true military general. General Bajwa’s professional profile and service record fully endorse his placement in the Forbes Most Powerful.

The magazine placed Chinese President Xi Jinping at the top of the list, while placing Russia’s Vladimir Putin as the second most powerful man of 2018. Reducing the US President Donald Trump to number three position in the list of most powerful personality. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel was ranked fourth in the list, making her the most powerful woman in the world. This year’s list came at a time of rapid and profound changes, and represented a best guess about who will matter in the year to come.

*Ishaal Zehra is a journalist who contributes to the Pakistan News Service.

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