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Moderate Sunlight Exposure Improves Learning And Memory

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USTC researchers have shed new lights on the correlation between sunlight exposure and related neurobehaviors. Combining single-cell mass spectrometry isotopic labeling technique, the multi-institutional team led by Prof. XIONG Wei and Prof. HUANG Guangming uncovered a novel sunlight-activated glutamate biosynthetic pathway in the mouse brain. Such pathway may fundamentally contribute to our daily neurobehaviors such as mood, learning and cognition.

The research article entitled “Moderate UV Exposure Enhances Learning and Memory by Promoting a Novel Glutamate Biosynthetic Pathway in the Brain” is published in Cell on May 17th.

According to Professor XIONG Wei from the School of Life Sciences, the ultraviolet (UV) light enhanced learning capacity has been observed on mice.

“The mice without UV exposure typically require 6 rounds of training to adapt to the rotating rod,” said Professor XIONG Wei, “however for the UV-exposed mice, they become smarter and only require four rounds of training.”

The mechanism is examined using interdisciplinary techniques. It is revealed that the moderate UV exposure elevates the blood urocanic acid (UCA), which is later converted to glutamate (GLU) in the brain cells. The as-synthesized GLU contributes to the enhanced learning capacity of mice. In addition to learning, such UV-triggered GLU synthesis could contribute to more sunlight-induced neurobehavioral changes such as memory and mood.


New Study Investigates Dolphin Liberation In Korea

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Dolphin liberation in South Korea has raised awareness towards the welfare of marine animals and has resulted in the strengthening of animal protection policies and the level of welfare.

An engineering student, affiliated with UNIST has recently carried out a scientific investigation on dolphin liberation in South Korea. The paper presents the overall analysis of the social impact of the first case of dolphin rehabilitation in Asia, which occurred in 2013.

This study has been carried out by Sejoon Kim in the School of Energy and Chemical Engineering in collaboration wit Professor Bradley Tatar in the Division of General Studies at UNIST. Their findings have been published in the April issue of the journal, Coastal Management and will be published online, this month.

“After the release of captive dolphins from South Korean marine parks, there has been a growing environmental movement towards the conservation and management of marine and coastal ecosystems,” said Sejoon. “Although such movement relies on a single-species conservation focus and does not encompass an entire ecosystem, it has enormous symbolic significance for the welfare of marine animals.”

The research team hopes to expand their research to areas beyond the study of dolphin liberation and carry out in-depth case studies on various topics, including the whale-eating culture in Ulsan, the public perspective of dolphin shows, as well as the establishment of new types of dolphin life experience facilities.

Mars Rocks May Harbor Signs Of Life From 4 Billion Years Ago

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Iron-rich rocks near ancient lake sites on Mars could hold vital clues that show life once existed there, research suggests.

These rocks – which formed in lake beds – are the best place to seek fossil evidence of life from billions of years ago, researchers say.

A new study that sheds light on where fossils might be preserved could aid the search for traces of tiny creatures – known as microbes – on Mars, which it is thought may have supported primitive life forms around four billion years ago.

A team of scientists has determined that sedimentary rocks made of compacted mud or clay are the most likely to contain fossils. These rocks are rich in iron and a mineral called silica, which helps preserve fossils.

They formed during the Noachian and Hesperian Periods of Martian history between three and four billion years ago. At that time, the planet’s surface was abundant in water, which could have supported life.

The rocks are much better preserved than those of the same age on Earth, researchers say. This is because Mars is not subject to plate tectonics – the movement of huge rocky slabs that form the crust of some planets – which over time can destroy rocks and fossils inside them.

The team reviewed studies of fossils on Earth and assessed the results of lab experiments replicating Martian conditions to identify the most promising sites on the planet to explore for traces of ancient life.

Their findings could help inform NASA’s next rover mission to the Red Planet, which will focus on searching for evidence of past life. The US space agency’s Mars 2020 rover will collect rock samples to be returned to Earth for analysis by a future mission.

A similar mission led by the European Space Agency is also planned in coming years.

The latest study of Mars rocks – led by a researcher from the University of Edinburgh – could aid in the selection of landing sites for both missions. It could also help to identify the best places to gather rock samples.

The study, published in Journal of Geophysical Research, also involved researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Brown University, California Institute of Technology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Yale University in the US.

Dr Sean McMahon, a Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellow in the University of Edinburgh’s School of Physics and Astronomy, said: “There are many interesting rock and mineral outcrops on Mars where we would like to search for fossils, but since we can’t send rovers to all of them we have tried to prioritise the most promising deposits based on the best available information.”

Malaysia: Nearly $29 Million Seized In Raids On Najib-Linked Sites

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By Hadi Azmi

Malaysian police said Friday they found close to U.S. $29 million in cash in suitcases confiscated during raids last week on Kuala Lumpur residences linked to former Prime Minister Najib Razak.

The searches of at least six properties connected to Najib’s family in and around the Malaysian capital were done as part of an investigation into a massive financial scandal around a state fund known as 1MDB, officials said at the time.

Also on Friday, the country’s new finance minister said he asked tax officials to probe whether Malaysian tycoon Low Taek Jho – better known as Jho Low – was holding assets or profits linked to the sovereign wealth fund, 1Malaysia Development Berhad.

Najib, the ex-PM whose ruling coalition lost a general election on May 9, has denied allegations that he took money from 1MDB.

The huge amount of cash in 26 currencies was found in 35 suitcases seized from an unoccupied unit in the Pavilion Residences, a luxury condominium building in Kuala Lumpur, during a raid on May 18, the chief of the national police’s Commercial Crime Investigation Division told reporters Friday.

“I can confirm since 21 May to 23 May 2018, with the assistance of 21 officers from Bank Negara (Central Bank) and one officer from the Islamic Bank, we sat down and counted the money in the 35 bags out of 72 bags,” CCID Director Amar Singh Ishar Singh said.

The bulk of the cash was in Malaysian ringgit and Singaporean dollars.

“The total amount of this as of yesterday, 24 May, is RM 114 million [U.S. $28.75 million],” Singh said.

The other confiscated bags contained jewelry and luxury watches, which the police were planning to authenticate starting Monday with help from experts, Singh said.

During the 28-hour raid at the Pavilion Residences, CCID officers also seized 284 boxes containing handbags, mostly from the high-end Hermés Birkin line, the senior police official said.

“We have had discussions with Hermés, and we will take pictures and send them to Paris to verify their authenticity and their value,” he said.

‘Doesn’t my daughter deserve wedding gifts?’

The May 18 raid targeted three apartments in the condo building, two of which were occupied by Najib’s son and daughter, Norashman and Nooryana. Police found the 72 suitcases and 284 boxes in the unoccupied third unit, officials said.

The raids were among searches conducted by police with warrants at various locations, including Najib’s former office as prime minister and his main home, Singh said. But he declined to reveal the names of the owners of the three condo units.

Najib has criticized the police raids on his and his children’s residence as being illegal. The luxury items were gifts from friends and the packets of cash were donations for his Barisan Nasional coalition’s election campaign, media reports quoted him as saying.

During their search of his daughter’s apartment, police said they had confiscated another 150 luxury handbags. They also seized luxury watches and at least 50 more handbags, as well as 500,000 ringgit ($125,620) in cash, during their search of Najib’s main house.

“What has 1MDB got to do with wedding gifts?” Najib said Sunday while addressing a crowd of his supporters in Pekan, his parliamentary constituency, referring to items seized from his daughter’s house, which included wedding gifts and baby shoes for his grandson.

“Doesn’t my daughter deserve wedding gifts? She is married to someone who can afford it in Kazakhstan,” the former PM said.

Najib’s daughter is married to Daniyar Kessikbayev, nephew of the president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev.

“If they want to take items, they must have proof. There must be a prima facie case against me that the items were illegally obtained,” Najib told the crowd.

“The people of Pekan know me. I am not a thief. I am not a rogue,” he said. “To topple the party, they had to target the president. They would do anything as long as my brand was destroyed.”

Police said the confiscated cash was being kept at the Central Bank while all of the seized jewelry and luxury items were under lock and key at police headquarters in Bukit Aman.

In addition, police said they were holding onto documents related to 1MDB that were confiscated during searches at a host of sites in Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Malaysia’s administrative capital.

UMNO wants money back

After Barisan Nasional lost the election two weeks ago, Najib and his wife were barred from leaving the country as the new government launched an investigation into the 1MDB corruption scandal. He has since also resigned as president of both Barisan and its anchor party, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO).

On Thursday, UMNO, which dominated Malaysian politics for 61 years until its May 9 defeat, issued a statement implying that the money confiscated by police during the raids on Najib-linked properties was in fact the party’s money.

As UMNO’s president, Najib was responsible for obtaining and managing such funds, including money that was supposed to be used for the general election, the statement said.

UMNO asked the police to return the money.

“It is sad to say that the balance of campaign and party funds has been seized by the police while it is in a process to be transferred to UMNO’s new leadership after Dato Sri Najib’s resignation as president of UMNO and BN,” the party said.

“UMNO is currently in the process of rebuilding the party and the return of the party’s fund will assist in the process,” it added.

Probe ordered against Jho Low

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said in a tweet Friday that he had asked the Internal Revenue Board “to investigate Jho Low and his family in relation to any of his [tax] returns or anything received in the 1MDB scandal.”

Jho Low is at the center of investigations by the U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) into the alleged laundering of billions of dollars that, it says, were looted from 1MDB and used to purchase high-priced real estate, art pieces and other valuable items.

DOJ has been trying to seize a $250 million yacht, which it alleges was purchased by Jho Low with laundered 1MDB money. But last month, an Indonesian judge agreed to release the ship, the Equanimity, after Indonesian police and FBI agents had seized it off Bali in late February.

Jho Low has denied any criminal role in the 1MDB affair, but his whereabouts are unknown.

The DOJ has described the affair as “the worst kleptocracy scandal in recent times,” pointing out that more than $4.5 billion (17.9 billion ringgit) was stolen from the fund since its inception in 2009.

When U.S. prosecutors filed a civil forfeiture case related to 1MDB in July 2016, they described a breathtaking level of fraud in which more than $730 million of what seemed to be 1MDB money was rerouted in a maze of transactions before ultimately landing in the personal bank accounts of “Malaysia Official 1,” a veiled reference to Najib.

Najib has denied any criminal wrongdoing, saying the money deposited into his bank accounts was a donation from a Saudi prince.

Letter To George Clooney: Help Stop Frivolous ‘Hate Group’ Charges

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The Southern Poverty Law Center is wrongly targeting social conservative organizations as “hate groups,” and George Clooney, a major financial supporter of the law center, should demand better, one commentator said this week.

Chuck Donovan is an author, policy researcher and president of the Charlotte Lozier Institute, the research and education arm of the pro-life political advocacy group the Susan B. Anthony List.

However, he wrote to Clooney in a personal capacity, encouraging the star to use his influence to help persuade the SPLC to avoid its “embittering and unproductive campaigns to label any political or social issue opponent as a hate group.”

“This tactic is injurious both to the reputations of some outstanding people and to the flourishing of the common good,” Donovan charged in an open letter published May 20 at the Public Discourse website. It is a betrayal of “the honorable history of the SPLC’s founding in opposition to the denial of civil rights to African Americans, he said.

Last year, the Clooney Foundation for Justice announced a $1 million gift for the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC).

Based in Montgomery, Ala., the SPLC was founded in 1971 with the original stated aim of monitoring persons and groups fighting the civil rights movement. It began to track racist and white supremacist groups like neo-Nazis and affiliates of the Ku Klux Klan in the 1980s. It monitors other groups it considers extremist, anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim.

More recently, however, it has labeled as “hate groups” Christian organizations that believe in marriage as the union of one man and one woman.

In recent months, several groups were removed from the charitable donation program Amazon Smile based on the SPLC’s designation of them as “hate groups.”

Amazon told the legal group Alliance Defending Freedom, a Christian religious liberty legal organization, that the “hate group” designation made it ineligible for the program.

The SPLC has also listed as “hate groups” other mainstream Christian-backed advocacy groups like the Family Research Council and the Ruth Institute, a non-profit group that studies and explains the effects of the sexual revolution. The SPLC said they have an “anti-LGBT” stance.

Donovan suggested that George Clooney can lead the way to help civilize public life.

“There is great ugliness on the national scene. God has given you the ability to speak to millions of people around the world and to capture their attention,” he said in his letter, encouraging the star to “take a closer look at a good number of the SPLC’s scattershot targets, including Alliance Defending Freedom, the Ruth Institute, Coral Ridge Ministries, and many more.

“The vituperation the SPLC levels at some public policy groups it disagrees with is part of the problem, not the solution,” said Donovan.

He focused on the “hate group” label placed on the Family Research Council. After finding this designation on the SPLC website, a man named Floyd Corkins decided to attack the Christian organization in 2012. Corkins entered the Family Research Council building with a gun and shot building manager Leo Johnson in the arm before Johnson wrestled him to the ground. Corkins later told authorities that he wanted to kill as many employees as possible because of the group’s opposition to gay marriage.

Donovan said Johnson “recognized the humanity of the attacker in front of him, and he refrained from violence.”

“This is the accurate picture I know of Leo and the other people at FRC. They have deep convictions. They hate no one,” he said in his letter to Clooney.

“It should be to our credit that we can debate deep differences and emerge from these debates with mutual respect and a willingness to continue discussions in the interest of building a better nation.”

In Donovan’s view, Clooney roots his views in his Midwestern upbringing and hard work throughout his life. He asked Clooney, “please keep in mind that there are people just like you in all these respects who, because of different views on some questions, are being unfairly and even dangerously vilified.”

Donovan said he is sure he and Clooney do not differ about “truly odious groups” that the SPLC opposes, like the Ku Klux Klan, neo-Nazis and white supremacists.

However, he encouraged Clooney to reject efforts to depict Christian views on life and marriage as akin to bigotry and hatred.

“Certainly, each of these issues generates argument and disagreement, but for the life of me I cannot fathom, and completely reject, the idea that these values have anything to do with abhorrent racism and hatred.”

Russia: Jehovah’s Witness Homes Targeted In 28 New Raids, Now 20 Criminal Investigations

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By Victoria Arnold

Law enforcement officers, some armed and in body armour, raided a further 28 Jehovah’s Witness homes in May in Orenburg Region, the Jewish Autonomous Region, and the Urals city of Perm. The latest raids led to detentions, house arrest, travel restrictions, and criminal charges for at least another 11 people.

Seven Jehovah’s Witnesses are now known to be in pre-trial detention facing criminal investigations or charges. Another is under house arrest, while at least a further 11 are under travel restrictions. In two other cases, trials are already underway (see full list at base of this article).

As in previous raids, law enforcement agents often forced entry to properties, threatened the occupants with weapons, and confiscated personal items, including bank cards. They then took Jehovah’s Witnesses, including minors, away for interrogation, sometimes for several hours overnight (see below).

Law enforcement agencies carried out the searches and arrests in Perm, Birobidzhan and four towns in Orenburg Region in mid-May, in some cases accompanied by National Guard troops or riot police armed with machine guns. They came about a month after similar searches in Ufa (Bashkortostan Republic), Polyarny (Murmansk Region), Shuya (Ivanovo Region), and Vladivostok. Criminal investigations are continuing in these places, as well as in Belgorod and Kemerovo, where Jehovah’s Witnesses also suffered armed raids in January and February.

Officials know that using troops and weapons including machine guns on raids is unnecessary, as Jehovah’s Witnesses worldwide are a doctrinally pacifist community whose young male members worldwide will not do compulsory military service or any other military-connected activity. However, even before Jehovah’s Witnesses were banned in Russia their communities were frequently raided by heavily armed and camouflaged officials who frequently planted “evidence”.

The Jehovah’s Witnesses caught up in 2018’s wave of prosecutions are accused of “continuing the activities” of the Jehovah’s Witness Administrative Centre, their principal administrative body in Russia, which was outlawed as an “extremist” organisation and liquidated in 2017.

Muslims also face “extremism” investigation, trials, jailing

Prosecutors have also long jailed Muslims who meet to read the works of late Turkish theologian Said Nursi. Four were jailed in 2017. People who meet to study his writings can be accused of continuing the activities of “Nurdzhular”, which was banned as an “extremist organisation” by the Supreme Court in 2008, even though Muslims in Russia deny it has ever existed.

Five Muslims are known by Forum 18 to be already on trial for having met to study Nursi’s works – three in Krasnoyarsk, one in Novosibirsk, and one in Izberbash in the Republic of Dagestan. Another man, from Sharypovo in Krasnoyarsk Region, is due to appear in court soon.

Up to 10 years’ imprisonment?

If convicted, the Jehovah’s Witnesses charged or under investigation could be imprisoned for up to 10 years under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 1 (“Organisation of the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”), or up to six years under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 2 (“Participation in the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”).

One criminal investigation, in Orenburg, is also taking place under Criminal Code Article 282.3, Part 1 (“Financing of extremist activity”). This appears to be the first use of this Article against people exercising the internationally-recognised right to freedom of religion and belief.

Conviction under Criminal Code Article 282.3, Part 1 (“Provision or collection of funds or rendering of financial services that are knowingly designed to finance the organisation, preparation and commission of at least one extremist crime or the support of the activities of an extremist community or an extremist organisation”) carries the following penalties:

– a fine of 300,000 to 700,000 Roubles, which is currently between two to four years’ annual salary;

– or compulsory labour for a period of one to four years, with possible deprivation of the right to hold certain positions or engage in certain activities for a period of up to three years, or with possible restrictions on freedom for a period of up to one year;

– or three to eight years’ imprisonment.

Forum 18 wrote to the Moscow press office of the Investigative Committee (which is leading most of the investigations) on 23 April, asking why the Jehovah’s Witnesses detained in Ufa, Shuya, and Polyarny were considered so dangerous that armed force had to be used. On 10 May, Lieutenant Colonel S. Solovyov replied only that all available information on these cases could be found on the Bashkortostan, Ivanovo Region, and Murmansk Region Investigative Committee websites.

None of the people involved in the latest prosecution yet appears on the Federal Financial Monitoring Service (Rosfinmonitoring) “List of Terrorists and Extremists”, whose assets banks are obliged to freeze. Their names may be added while their cases are still ongoing, however, meaning that they will suffer financial restrictions without any trial or conviction.

Officials added the name of Danish Jehovah’s Witness Dennis Ole Christensen to the List shortly after his trial began.

Christensen and Jehovah’s Witness elder Arkadya Akopovich Akopyan are currently on trial for alleged “extremism” offences not directly related to the nationwide ban.

Perm

Aleksandr Solovyov and his wife Anna had just returned from a trip abroad when law enforcement agents detained them at Perm-2 railway station on the evening of 22 May. Friends who had come to meet them said that officers put Solovyov in handcuffs and took him and his wife away in separate cars, the European Association of Jehovah’s Witnesses reported on 24 May.

Anna Solovyova has since been released, but Aleksandr is being held in a temporary detention centre while a judge decides on further restrictive measures. It is as yet unclear whether he will be placed in pre-trial detention or which court will rule on the matter. Under which part of Criminal Code Article 282.2 (“Organisation of” or “participation in” “the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”) he is being investigated is also unknown.

Investigators searched the Solovyovs’ home overnight on 22/23 May and seized the deeds to the flat, electronic devices, computer drives, their wifi router, photographs, and their collection of Bibles.

Before the nationwide ban on Jehovah’s Witness activity and the consequent liquidation of local communities, Aleksandr Solovyov chaired the Perm Jehovah’s Witness congregation, according to federal tax records. Anna Solovyova does not appear on the list of founding members.

As of 24 May, Solovyov was being held at the Temporary Detention Centre, ulitsa Uralskaya, 90, Perm, 614017.

Birobidzhan: “Judgment Day”

About 150 law enforcement officers conducted at least nine searches of Jehovah’s Witness homes in Birobidzhan, capital of the Jewish Autonomous Region, early in the morning of 17 May, the European Association of Jehovah’s Witnesses announced later that day. The operation was codenamed “Judgment Day”, according to the Association.

Officers seized personal photographs, bank cards, money, and electronic devices. So far, one person – Alam Aliyev – is known to be the subject of a criminal case under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 1 (“Organisation of the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”).

On 18 May, Judge Marina Tsimarno of Birobidzhan District Court upheld FSB investigators’ request to keep Aliyev in pre-trial custody in Birobidzhan’s Investigation Prison No. 1 until 13 July, according to court records. Aliyev’s lawyers submitted an appeal against his detention on 21 May. On 25 May, Judge Anzhela Sizova of the Court of the Jewish Autonomous Region upheld this appeal, citing “significant violations of criminal procedural law governing the choice of pre-trial detention as a restrictive measure”. This freed Aliyev from detention after eight days. It remains unknown what restrictions he remains under.

The FSB’s request to hold Aliyev in custody “was motivated by the fact that the crime is classified as grave, for which the law provides for a sentence of imprisonment for a term of six to 10 years”, according to a 21 May press statement on the court website. “During the preliminary investigation, it was established that a large number of persons took part in the activity of this organisation. The suspect is the organiser of this extremist organisation and has an actual influence on members of the association.”

Birobidzhan was home to the only registered local Jehovah’s Witness congregation in the Jewish Autonomous Region, which was among those ruled “extremist” and liquidated before the Supreme Court’s decision to ban the Jehovah’s Witnesses nationwide. The Court of the Jewish Autonomous Region upheld the local Justice Ministry branch’s suit on 3 October 2016, and the community ceased its activities on 20 December 2016, according to federal tax records. Aliyev does not appear in the records as a founder member of the community.

Orenburg Region: Mass raids

Investigative Committee operatives, FSB security service agents, and armed riot police carried out 18 house searches in Orenburg, Buzuluk, Perevolotsky, and Sol-Iletsk, also on 17 May.

They took 15 people away for questioning, three of whom were then sent to a temporary detention centre, according to statements by the European Association of Jehovah’s Witnesses on 17 May and 21 May.

Of these three, Judge Igor Ismaylov of Industrial District Court ruled on 19 May that one – Vladislav Kolbanov – should be placed under house arrest, while the other two – Aleksandr Suvorov and Vladimir Kochnyov – should be kept in pre-trial detention until 14 July.

Orenburg Region Investigative Committee reported that a further six people are under travel restrictions.

Forum 18 understands Suvorov and Kochnyov’s prison address to be:

Orenburg Region

460000 Orenburg

ulitsa Naberezhnaya, 7

Investigation Prison No. 1

The Investigative Committee said in a press statement on 22 May that nine people in Orenburg Region have been formally charged under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 1 (“Organisation of the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”), Article 282.2, Part 2 (“Participation in” such an organisation), and Criminal Code Article 282.3, Part 1 (“Financing of extremist activity”).

The European Association of Jehovah’s Witnesses thinks that Kochnyov and Suvorov (both from Orenburg) have been charged under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 1. Kolbanov (also from Orenburg), Boris Andreyev (from Perevolotsky), and Anatoly Vichkitov (from Sol-Iletsk) are also among those charged, although it remains unclear with which alleged offences.

Before the liquidation of the Administrative Centre, Orenburg and Buzuluk had registered Jehovah’s Witness communities, while Perevolotsky and Sol-Iletsk did not. According to federal tax records, Suvorov previously chaired the Central Orenburg Jehovah’s Witness community, and Kochnyov was among its founding members.

The raids on 17 May took place “as a result of carefully planned and organised operational and investigative actions”, according to the Investigative Committee statement, and had the aim of “seizing documents and items relevant to the criminal case, as well as identifying other persons involved in unlawful activities”.

In raiding the historically pacifist Jehovah’s Witnesses, police “anti-extremism” officers, the Economic Security and Anti-Corruption Administration, and the Orenburg Region FSB security service were also involved. The raids on pacifists also included what was described as “armed support” from National Guard special forces troops.

Investigators allege that the suspects, knowing of the 2017 ban on Jehovah’s Witness activity, “organised the activity of a structural subdivision of Jehovah’s Witnesses by calling and holding meetings, organising the recruitment of new members, and communicating the contents of religious literature to meeting participants”.

The investigation is continuing, with “necessary investigative and operational-search measures underway in order to collect and consolidate a base of evidence”, according to the statement.

Telephones at Orenburg Region Investigative Committee went unanswered when Forum 18 called on 24 May to ask why officials thought armed force was necessary against pacifists.

Polyarny, Murmansk Region

Further details have now emerged of earlier raids on Jehovah’s Witness homes in other regions.

Two men from Polyarny in Murmansk Region are in pre-trial detention, the European Association of Jehovah’s Witnesses confirmed on 11 May. They are Roman Markin and Viktor Trofimov, who are in custody in the city of Murmansk until 12 June. The Investigative Committee’s branch in the closed district of Aleksandrovsk (which includes Polyarny) opened the case against them on 12 April . This is under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 1 (“Organisation of the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”).

Markin and Trofimov’s prison address is:

Murmansk Region

183027 Murmansk

ulitsa Radishcheva, 32

Investigation Prison No. 1

Before the nationwide ban and liquidation of local Jehovah’s Witness organisations, Viktor Trofimov chaired the Polyarny community, according to federal tax records.

The men (who are like all Jehovah’s Witnesses pacifists) were detained during armed raids on seven houses in Polyarny on 18 April, which involved armed troops and riot police “who acted extremely rudely”, according to Jehovah’s Witnesses. Officers searched 17 people in all and confiscated their electronic devices. Interrogations at the Investigative Department of the Northern Fleet’s Polyarny Flotilla continued through the night until 7 am the next day.

At Roman Markin’s home, officers broke down his front door in the early evening, forced him and his 16-year-old daughter to lie on the floor during the search, and threatened them with weapons. Investigators questioned the 16-year-old until 3 am.

During another search, an elderly man opened the door to the riot police, who then “pushed him so violently that he fell”, the European Association of Jehovah’s Witnesses claims. They also hurt two women who were visiting the flat, and forced two teenage siblings to stand against the wall with their arms outstretched.

Vladivostok

Valentin Osadchuk remains in pre-trial detention in Vladivostok, where he is to be held until 20 June. He was formally charged on 27 April under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 2 (“Participation in the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”), according to the European Association of Jehovah’s Witnesses.

Forum 18 understands Osadchuk’s prison address to be:

Primorye Region

690106 Vladivostok

Partizansky prospekt, 28b

Investigation Prison No. 1

Two women, aged 66 and 83, have also been named as suspects under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 2 (“Participation in the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”) and placed under travel restrictions, the European Association of Jehovah’s Witnesses also reported on 10 May. The FSB security service initiated the case against them and Osadchuk on 9 April. According to Jehovah’s Witnesses, the investigation involved video surveillance, followed by raids on people’s homes on 19 April.

Shuya, Ivanovo Region

Dmitry Mikhailov remains under travel restrictions after the law enforcement raid in his home on 20 April. According to a 15 May statement by the European Association of Jehovah’s Witnesses, the Ivanovo Region Investigative Committee initiated the case against him under Article 282.2, Part 2 (“Participation in the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”) on 19 April after several months of investigation which included phone tapping and video surveillance.

Law enforcement agents carried out four raids in the town of Shuya early in the morning of 20 April. During one search of a communal flat, a riot police officer held a pistol to the head of a neighbour, although he had not tried to obstruct the raid, and forced him to lie on the floor for 15 minutes. During another, “a man was threatened with handcuffs to prevent him seeking legal advice by phone”, according to the European Association. Officers confiscated the Jehovah’s Witnesses’ phones, tablet computers, bank cards, and personal documents.

The investigator in charge, Robert Barsegyan, has refused to discuss the case with Forum 18.

Ufa

Anatoly Vilitkevich is still in pre-trial detention and under investigation under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 1 (“Organisation of the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”).

Vilitkevich was the first Jehovah’s Witness to be detained in the latest round of law enforcement actions, after law enforcement agents, including heavily armed officers, carried out a series of raids in the Bashkortostan capital early on 10 April. Over 20 people were taken in for interrogation, but all except Vilitkevich were later released.

Vilitkevich’s prison address is:

Bashkortostan Republic

450015 Ufa

ulitsa Dostoyevskogo, 39

Investigation Prison No. 1

Belgorod

Two Jehovah’s Witnesses in Belgorod – Anatoly Shalyapin and Sergey Voykov – remain under investigation for alleged offences under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 2 (“Participation in the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”). They are still under travel restrictions.

The men were among a large number of Jehovah’s Witnesses whose homes were searched by Investigative Committee agents and other law enforcement officers in heavy-handed armed raids on 7 February.

Kemerovo

Similar raids took place in Kemerovo in Siberia. However, it appears that nobody has yet been charged or named as a suspect in that investigation.

The Jehovah’s Witnesses currently known to be in pre-trial detention, under house arrest, and under travel restrictions are:

Detention

– Perm

1) Aleksandr Vasilyevich Solovyov – 48 hours’ temporary detention from evening of 22 May 2018; longer-term measures unknown

– Orenburg

2) Vladimir Yuryevich Kochnyov, aged 38, until 14 July 2018

3) Aleksandr Gennadyevich Suvorov, aged 38, until 14 July 2018

– Ufa, Bashkortostan Republic

4) Anatoly Sergeyevich Vilitkevich, born 15 September 1986 – until 2 June 2018

– Polyarny, Murmansk Region

5) Roman Markin, born 1974 – until 12 June 2018

6) Viktor Fyodorovich Trofimov, born 1957 – until 12 June 2018

– Vladivostok, Primorye Region

7) Valentin Pavlovich Osadchuk, born 1976 – until 20 June 2018

– Oryol

8) Dennis Ole Christensen, born 18 December 1972 – until 1 August 2018 (currently on trial)

House arrest

– Orenburg

Vladislav Kolbanov, aged 25

Travel restrictions

– Orenburg Region

At least six people – probably including Boris Andreyev and Anatoly Vichkitov

– Shuya, Ivanovo Region

Dmitry Vasilyevich Mikhailov, born 1977

– Vladivostok, Primorye Region

Two women, names unknown, aged 66 and 83

– Belgorod

Anatoly Shalyapin

Sergei Voykov

Unknown restrictions – Birobidzhan, Jewish Autonomous Region

Alam A.o. Aliyev, aged 55 – until 13 July 2018

Dusty Rainfall Records Reveal New Understanding Of Earth’s Long-Term Climate

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Ancient rainfall records stretching 550,000 years into the past may upend scientists’ understanding of what controls the Asian summer monsoon and other aspects of the Earth’s long-term climate, reports a University of Arizona-led international team of researchers in the May 25 issue of the journal Science.

The standard explanation of the Earth’s regular shifts from ice ages to warm periods was developed by Milutin Milankovitch in the 1920s. He suggested the oscillations of the planet’s orbit over tens of thousands of years control the climate by varying the amount of heat from the sun falling above the Arctic Circle in the summer.

“Here’s where we turn Milankovitch on its head,” said first author J. Warren Beck, a UA research scientist in physics and in geosciences. “We suggest that, through the monsoons, low-latitude climate may have as much effect on high-latitude climate as the reverse.”

During the northern summer, the subtropics and tropics north of the equator warm and the tropics and subtropics south of the equator cool.

Modern observations show the difference in heat propels atmospheric changes that drive the intensity of the monsoon. Beck said the monsoon can affect wind and ocean currents as far away as the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.

The Asian monsoon season is the biggest annual rainfall system on Earth and brings rainfall to about half the world’s population. The monsoon season occurs approximately April to September.

Beck and his colleagues found that over tens of thousands of years the changes in the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon corresponded to the waxing and waning of the polar ice caps.

The researchers suggest those long-term changes in the monsoon drove global changes in wind and ocean currents in ways that affected whether the polar ice caps grew or shrank.

Beck said this new explanation of the Earth’s past climate cycles will help climate modelers figure out more about the world’s current and future climate.

The new explanation of what drives the Earth’s climate system stems from a decade-long effort by Beck and his colleagues to develop a new record of rainfall in Asia reaching far back into the past.

Scientists have been trying to develop a quantitative proxy for ancient precipitation for more than 30 years, he said.

By analyzing thousands of years of dust from north-central China for an element called beryllium-10, Beck and his colleagues developed the first quantitative record of the region’s monsoon rainfall for the past 550,000 years.

The team studied the deposits of fine soil called loess that blow year after year from central Asian deserts into north-central China. The layer-cake-like deposits, hundreds of feet thick, are a natural archive extending back millions of years.

The researchers cut stepwise into the side of a hill of loess to expose a 55-meter span of loess representing 550,000 years. The researchers collected a loess sample every five centimeters. Five centimeters represents about 500 years.

Scientists can use the amount of beryllium-10 in soil as a proxy for precipitation, because when it rains the element washes out of the atmosphere on dust particles. Because more rain means more beryllium-10 deposited on the soil, the amount of beryllium-10 deposited at a particular time reflects the intensity of the rainfall.

To put together the ancient rainfall history of the area, team members analyzed the samples for beryllium-10 at the UA Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Laboratory and for magnetic susceptibility at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Earth Environment in Xi’an.

Other investigators used the natural archive of oxygen isotopes within stalagmites from several Chinese caves to reconstruct the region’s past climate. Those records only partially agree with the rainfall-based records of ancient climate developed by Beck and his colleagues.

Beck and his colleagues suggest their new explanation of the forces driving the Earth’s long-term climate cycles reconciles the climate record from Chinese stalagmites and modern observations of the monsoon with the new ancient rainfall record from Chinese loess.

For The Past 70 Years The Danube Has Almost Never Frozen Over

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Today, only the eldest inhabitants of the Danube Delta recall that, in the past, you could skate on the river practically every winter; since the second half of the 20th century, Europe’s second-largest river has only rarely frozen over. The reason: the rising winter and water temperatures in Central and Eastern Europe, as a German-Romanian research team recently determined. Their analysis has just been published in the online magazine Scientific Reports.

In the Romanian harbour town Tulcea, an ice diary is dutifully maintained. Since 1836, the Danube Commission has recorded every winter in which the river froze over, how long the river was covered by a solid sheet of ice, and the day on which the ice began to break up. Until roughly 70 years ago, the ice archivists reported ice cover almost every year.

But since the middle of the 20th century, the entries in the column “ice” have become few and far between: between 1951 and 2016, Europe’s second-largest river only froze over ten times.

Mathematically speaking, that means less than one in six winters. A comparison with regions farther upstream shows that in Tulcea, the entryway to the Danube Delta, the river freezes longer and much more frequently than e.g. in Budapest, Hungary. So what explains why the residents of Tulcea haven’t been able to skate on the Danube for the past 70 years?

A German-Romanian research team has sought to answer this question. “When climate researchers talk about ice and global warming, most people think of the Greenland Ice Sheet or the sea ice on the Arctic Ocean. Most of them don’t realise that the amount of winter ice on Europe’s seas and rivers is an equally important indicator for a changing climate,” explained Dr Monica Ionita, a climate researcher at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI).

She and her colleagues have compared the ice records from Tulcea and other cities along the Danube with local and national meteorological time series. Their findings show that the climate in Central and Eastern Europe has changed substantially over the past several decades.

“In Europe, there has been a clearly recognisable rise in winter temperatures since the late 1940s. Ever since then, the winter months have rarely been sufficiently cold, and the Danube and other major rivers can no longer freeze over on a regular or extended basis,” said Monica Ionita.

Compared to the past, the average winter temperature in Eastern Europe is now roughly 1.5 degrees warmer than between 1901 and 1950. In addition, since the 1980s the Black Sea hasn’t become as cold as in past winters, and its warmth is making the winters in Eastern Europe and Western Russia milder and wetter.

Another reason why the Danube no longer freezes over is the inflow of wastewater and heat. As Ionita related, “From 1837 to 1950, the winter temperatures only had to drop to minus 0.54 degrees for an ice sheet to form on the Danube. But since the early 1950s, such a light frost isn’t enough; today, the air temperature has to dip below minus 1.05 degrees for the surface to freeze over. As such, we can clearly see the results of human influences.”

For those engaged in shipping on the Danube, the lack of winter ice shouldn’t cause any problems: with no ice, they can enjoy smooth sailing. But, as Monica Ionita warned, “There are likely to be farther-reaching consequences for the Danube’s flora and fauna, especially if we bear in mind that, because of global warming, the air and water temperatures will continue to rise.”


Fukushima Radioactive Particle Release Was Significant Says New Research

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Scientists say there was a significant release of radioactive particles during the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear accident.

The researchers identified the contamination using a new method and say if the particles are inhaled they could pose long-term health risks to humans.

The new method allows scientists to quickly count the number of caesium-rich micro-particles in Fukushima soils and quantify the amount of radioactivity associated with these particles.

The research, which was carried out by scientists from Kyushu University, Japan, and The University of Manchester, UK, was published in Environmental Science and Technology.

In the immediate aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, it was thought that only volatile, gaseous radionuclides, such as caesium and iodine, were released from the damaged reactors. However, in recent years it has become apparent that small radioactive particles, termed caesium-rich micro-particles, were also released.

Scientists have shown that these particles are mainly made of glass, and that they contain significant amounts of radioactive caesium, as well as smaller amounts of other radioisotopes, such as uranium and technetium.

The abundance of these micro-particles in Japanese soils and sediments, and their environmental impact is poorly understood. But the particles are very small and do not dissolve easily, meaning they could pose long-term health risks to humans if inhaled.

Therefore, scientists need to understand how many of the micro-particles are present in Fukushima soils and how much of the soil radioactivity can be attributed to the particles. Until recently, these measurements have proven challenging.

The new method makes use of a technique that is readily available in most Radiochemistry Laboratories called Autoradiography. In the method, an imaging plate is placed over contaminated soil samples covered with a plastic wrap, and the radioactive decay from the soil is recorded as an image on the plate. The image from plate is then read onto a computer.

The scientists say radioactive decay from the caesium-rich micro particles can be differentiated from other forms of caesium contamination in the soil.

The scientists tested the new method on rice paddy soil samples retrieved from different locations within the Fukushima prefecture. The samples were taken close to (4 km) and far away (40 km) from the damaged nuclear reactors. The new method found caesium-rich micro-particles in all of the samples and showed that the amount of caesium associated with the micro-particles in the soil was much larger than expected.

Dr Satoshi Utsunomiya, Associate Professor at Kyushu University, Japan, and the lead author of the study said, “when we first started to find caesium-rich micro-particles in Fukushima soil samples, we thought they would turn out to be relatively rare. Now, using this method, we find there are lots of caesium-rich microparticles in exclusion zone soils and also in the soils collected from outside of the exclusion zone”.

Dr Gareth Law, Senior Lecturer in Analytical Radiochemistry at the University of Manchester and an author on the paper, added: “Our research indicates that significant amounts of caesium were released from the Fukushima Daiichi reactors in particle form.”

“This particle form of caesium behaves differently to the other, more soluble forms of caesium in the environment. We now need to push forward and better understand if caesium micro-particles are abundant throughout not only the exclusion zone, but also elsewhere in the Fukushima prefecture; then we can start to gauge their impact”.

The new method can be easily used by other research teams investigating the environmental impact of the Fukushima Daiichi accident.

Dr Utsunomiya added: “we hope that our method will allow scientists to quickly measure the abundance of caesium-rich micro-particles at other locations and estimate the amount of caesium radioactivity associated with the particles. This information can then inform cost effective, safe management and clean-up of soils contaminated by the nuclear accident”.

Improved Financial Regulation Deters Misconduct

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Improved regulation has deterred a greater amount of financial misconduct in the UK since the global financial crisis, according to new research published by the University of East Anglia (UEA).

Since the crisis of 2007, there has been increased awareness of the risks posed by the conduct of financial institutions and their employees. More incidents of financial misconduct have been investigated, with regulators applying increasingly large fines and demanding the repayment of profits.

However, it remains uncertain if these regulatory changes have limited how much financial misconduct occurs and so this study examined whether regulators have improved their capacity to detect or deter financial misconduct since the end of the crisis in 2010.

Researchers at UEA, Bangor University, and the Universities of Warwick and Otago conducted an analysis differentiating between detection and deterrence of financial misconduct during the period 2002-2016.

The findings, published in a working paper by UEA’s Centre for Competition Policy, show that while detected breaches of UK financial regulation fell after 2010, the corresponding level of deterrence actually rose in this period.

The authors say this could be because of highly-publicised changes in regulatory structures, the effectiveness of punishments, or cultural change in the financial services industry.

Dr Peter Ormosi, senior lecturer in competition economics at UEA’s Norwich Business School, said: “By examining pre- and post-financial crisis periods, we show that while detection rates for breaches of financial regulation have remained constant and the number of detected cases has dropped, there was a significant increase in the rate of deterrence occurring after 2010.

“We believe this is strong evidence that the UK regulatory environment improved after 2010, with an increase in the effectiveness of regulation of financial misconduct in recent years.”

John Ashton, professor of banking at Bangor Business School, said it was important to assess if the increasingly harsh punishments have been effective in reducing misconduct and other risky practices.

“While financial misconduct alone is rarely the cause of financial crises, poor conduct by financial firms amplifies the macroprudential risks, for example through mortgage fraud, mis-selling of financial services, or even market abuse,” said Prof Ashton.

“Therefore it is important not only to limit the dangers posed by financial misconduct through appropriate assessment of the risk and the creation of resilient financial institutions, but also to enhance methods to quantify the effectiveness of regulatory detection and deterrence in order to best minimise misconduct by firms and individuals.”

The authors applied a new method of quantifying the detection and deterrence effect of financial regulation on financial misconduct, using a statistical approach employed in biological, ecological and demographic research – previously applied to assess other areas of criminal and corporate offending.

Using Australia as a control country, the study drew on data from Final Notices and Enforcement Undertakings issued by the UK Financial Services Authority and Financial Conduct Authority and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission between 2002 and 2016.

Co-author Dr Tim Burnett, from the University of Warwick, said: “One of the key difficulties in evaluating the effectiveness of financial regulation enforcement is that the data generally only shows us information on the number of individuals or firms who were actually caught. These figures, however, tell us little about what proportion of the crime we are successful in detecting, or whether our policies are deterring misconduct (where a potential perpetrator elects not to engage in crime in response to the potential penalties).

“Using a Capture-Recapture approach, typically used in biology or ecology, allowed us to examine data on detected offences and their associated punishments and use this to draw conclusions on both the effectiveness of policy at detecting misconduct, but crucially also to estimate the proportion of potential offenders which were dissuaded.

“Our headline results suggest that there was a shift in regulatory effectiveness after the financial crisis, and that this resulted in greater deterrence of financial misconduct.”

European Commission Proposes Updating Rules Governing Alcohol Excise Duties

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The European Commission has proposed to reshape the rules governing excise duty on alcohol within the EU, paving the way for a better business environment and reduced costs for small alcohol-producing businesses and better protection for consumer health.

The announcement means that small and artisan alcohol producers (including, for the first time, small independent cider makers) will have access to a new EU-wide certification system confirming their access to lower rates of duty across the Union. Consumer health will also benefit from a crack-down on the illegal use of tax-free denatured alcohol to make counterfeit drinks. There will also be an increase in the threshold for lower strength beer to which reduced rates may apply.

Excise duties are indirect taxes on the sale or use of specific products, such as alcohol and are usually applied as an amount per quantity of the product e.g. per 1,000 litres. All revenues from excise duties go to national budgets and account for around 5-18% of tax revenues or 2 to 5 % of GDP of Member States. EU Member States are free to set national rates as they see fit, provided they respect EU-wide minimum thresholds.

According to Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, “The EU’s common rules on the structures of excise duties on alcohol and alcoholic beverages are over 25 years old and in urgent need of an update so that they can keep pace with the challenges and opportunities offered by new technology and trade developments, while protecting public health. I encourage Member States to move ahead quickly and decisively with this review.”

Concretely, the proposal will:

  • Put in place a uniform certification system, recognisable in all EU countries confirming the status of independent small producers throughout the Union. This will reduce the administrative and compliance costs for small producers who should benefit from reduced excise rates under certain conditions.
  • Ensure a precise and consistent classification of cider across the EU, the current absence of which is a major obstacle for small cider producers who do not have access to the reduced rates afforded to small beer and spirit producers.
  • Clarify the correct manufacturing processes and conditions for denatured alcohol in the EU. Such alcohol is used in the production of goods such as cleaning products, screen wash, perfume and anti-freeze and is exempt from excise duty. This exemption can been exploited by unscrupulous producers who use denatured alcohol to make and sell potentially dangerous counterfeit drinks without paying tax and, even more importantly, endangering consumer health. Today’s proposal will establish a modern system for reporting the misuse of certain alcohol formulations so that they will no longer be usable as denaturants.
  • Update IT systems: the new rules will replace the outdated paper-based procedures used to track movement of certain denatured alcohol and will result in the mandatory use of the Excise Movement and Control System (EMCS). This will make it easier to follow movements of these high-risk products in real time, reducing the fraudulent use of this exemption and protecting consumers.
  • Increase the threshold for lower strength beer that can benefit from reduced rates from 2.8% volume to 3.5% volume, toprovide an incentive for brewers to be innovative and create new products. This should encourage consumers to choose low-strength alcoholic drinks over standard ones, reducing alcohol intake.

The proposals also include measures in general excise duty rules to remove barriers for SMEs. This will allow SMEs to use modern IT systems when they wish to do so, and lifts their existing obligation to employ tax representatives. Member States can currently insist that distance sellers of excise goods employ tax representatives, which can make legitimate trade financially unviable.

Egypt Energy Profile: Largest Non-OPEC Oil Producer In Africa – Analysis

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Egypt is the largest oil producer in Africa outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the third-largest natural gas producer on the continent following Algeria and Nigeria. Egypt plays a vital role in international energy markets through its operation of the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) Pipeline.

The Suez Canal is an important transit route for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments traveling northbound from the Persian Gulf to Europe and to North America and for shipments traveling southbound from North Africa and from countries along the Mediterranean Sea to Asia. Fees collected from these two transit points are significant sources of revenue for the Egyptian government.

The 2011 revolution led to an economic downturn, and the country experienced a sharp decline in tourism revenue and foreign direct investment, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, economic conditions have improved over the past few years, and financial support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait has helped Egypt address its increasing domestic demand for energy[1].

As part of the conditions outlined by the IMF’s economic reform package, the Egyptian government is implementing a reform program that will eliminate energy subsidies to reduce spending and strengthen its fiscal position. Energy subsidies are expected to decline to 2.4% of GDP in fiscal year (FY) 2017 – 18 (ending June 30, 2018), from a peak of 5.9% of GDP in FY 2013 – 14[2]. Energy subsidies have contributed to Egypt’s large budget deficit and to financial challenges for its national oil company, the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC). Subsidies have also deterred foreign operators from investing in the sector. However, quicker-than-expected progress on implementing reforms and recent natural gas discoveries have led to renewed interest among foreign investors in Egypt’s energy sector.

Sector organization

Oversight and management of the petroleum sector falls under five state-owned enterprises (SOE), according to Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum[3]:

  • Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC)
  • Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS)
  • Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM)
  • Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority (EMRA)
  • Ganoub El-Wadi Holding Company (Ganope)

ECHEM is responsible for developing the petrochemical sector, and EMRA is responsible for mineral resources assessment and geological mapping of the country. EGPC and Ganope both manage upstream oil activities and issue upstream licenses. Ganope specifically focuses on activity in the southern region, and EGPC on the rest of the country[4]. EGAS oversees the development, production, and marketing of natural gas and is also responsible for organizing international exploration bid rounds and awarding natural gas exploration licenses. EGAS and EGPC participate with international companies to develop and operate oil and natural gas fields[5].

International oil companies (IOCs) play a large role in Egypt’s upstream oil sector, holding shares in producing assets in partnership with EGPC. BP, Eni, Royal Dutch Shell (through the acquisition of BG), and Apache are the major oil and natural gas companies active in Egypt. The first three companies have primarily invested offshore, and Apache has invested in the onshore Western Desert, where Shell and Eni are also operating[6]. The downstream sector is state-controlled and does not have any private investment, with the exception of marketing and storage activities, leaving EGPC and its subsidiaries as the sole players[7].

Petroleum and other liquids

Egypt’s oil consumption currently outpaces oil production, and one of the country’s major challenges is to satisfy increasing oil demand amid falling production.

Estimates of Egypt’s crude oil reserves vary across sources. The Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) estimates that proven reserves in Egypt have held at a constant 4.4 billion barrels since 2011, an increase from 3.7 billion barrels in 2010[8]. However, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Egypt’s proven reserves have declined from a peak of approximately 4.5 billion barrels in 2010 to about 3.5 billion barrels in 2016. According to the EIU, the decline in reserves is a result of maturing oil fields and a lack of new discoveries to fully offset the decline[9]. Crude oil production has been steadily declining over the past decade as a result of the overall decline in output from its legacy onshore fields. Egypt has maintained a sustained level of exploration activity, but many of the significant finds have been natural gas rather than oil.

In 2017, Egypt’s petroleum and other liquids production averaged 666,000 barrels per day (b/d) (Figure 1). Most of the crude oil production in Egypt comes from the Western Desert and Gulf of Suez, and the remainder is produced in the Eastern Desert, Sinai, Mediterranean Sea, Nile Delta, and Upper Egypt. However, condensate and natural gas liquids production have increased over the past decade as a result of increasing natural gas production, partially offsetting declines in crude oil production[10].

One of Egypt’s main challenges is to satisfy increasing domestic oil demand amid falling production. Egypt’s oil consumption currently outpaces its oil production. Total crude oil consumption increased by approximately 16% since 2007, averaging 802,000 b/d in 2017, and it is expected to continue growing, even when accounting for the phasing out of subsidies.

Refining and refined oil products

Egypt has the largest oil refining capacity in Africa, although it operates well below capacity. Egypt’s aging refineries lack the capacity to produce higher-end petroleum products, relying on imports to make up for the shortfall.

Egypt has the largest refining sector in Africa, but most of the refineries are operating at levels lower than capacity because of aging and maintenance issues. Its refineries mostly process domestically produced crude oil, and refined products are mostly sold to local markets.

The Egyptian government has sought to expand its refining capacity, but a number of upgrades and greenfield refineries have been delayed. A 60,000 b/d planned expansion of the MIDOR refinery was expected to be finished by 2018, but completion has been delayed until the early 2020s. Similarly, the expansion of the Mostorod refinery (Mostorod II project), developed by the Egyptian Refining Corporation (ERC) — a public-private partnership financed by Qalaa Holdings (formerly Citadel Capitol) and EGPC — had an initial completion date of 2017, but construction has stalled because of financing issues. Construction of this expansion is likely to continue, but it is unclear if it will be finished by 2020[11].

Estimates of Egypt’s oil refining capacity vary. The 2017 OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin and OGJ estimate Egypt’s refining capacity at 726,300 b/d and 727,000 b/d, respectively, while the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy has a higher estimate at approximately 810,000 b/d[12]. Nevertheless, all these estimates qualify Egypt as the largest holder of oil refining capacity in Africa. A bottom-up approach of estimating total refining capacity by calculating the topping capacity of each of Egypt’s refineries results in a capacity of 721,500 b/d, as illustrated in the table below.

Table 1. Egypt’s oil refineries, 2018
Refinery operator Location Ownership Topping capacity (b/d)
El-Nasr Petroleum Co. El Nasr EGPC (100%) 143,000
Cairo Oil Refining Co. Mostorod (Cairo) EGPC (100%) 142,000
Alexandria Petroleum Co. Alexandria (El-Mex) EGPC (100%) 100,000
Middle East Oil Refinery (MIDOR) Alexandria EGPC (78%), Suez Canal Bank (2%), ENPPI (10%), Petrojet (10%) 100,000
Ameriya Petroleum Refining Co. Alexandria EGPC (100%) 75,000
Suez Petroleum Processing Co. El Suez EGPC (100%) 68,000
Assiut Petroleum Refining Co. Assiut EGPC (100%) 50,000
Cairo Petroleum Refining Co. Tanta EGPC (100%) 35,000
Nasr Petroleum Co. Wadi Ferain EGPC (100%) 8,500
Total 721,500
Planned expansions Additional capacity (b/d)
Assiut expansion 12,700
MIDOR refinery expansion 60,000
Mostorod refinery expansion 84,000
Total 156,700
Source: Arab Oil & Gas Directory, Egyptian General Petroleum Company

According to data from 2017 OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, Egypt’s refined petroleum output averaged 501,800 b/d in 2016, suggesting that, based on OPEC’s figures, refinery utilization was about 69%[13]. IHS Markit and BMI Research attribute low utilization rates to aging refineries. Most of Egypt’s existing refineries are not complex, which prevents them from efficiently producing the more sought after, higher-end products such as diesel, LPG, and gasoline, and requiring imports to make up for the shortfall in domestic supply[14].

Natural gas

Egypt became a net importer of natural gas in 2015 as a result of growing domestic demand and declining production levels. Substantial natural gas discoveries have generated significant interest among business investors and may potentially boost production and allow Egypt to become a net exporter again in the medium term.

Similar to crude oil reserves, estimates of natural gas reserves also vary across publications. OGJ estimates that natural gas reserves in Egypt were a constant 77.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) since 2011, an increase from 58.5 Tcf in 2010[15]. According to the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Egypt held approximately 65.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2016, which is an increase from the 2010 estimate of almost 59 Tcf and the fourth-largest amount in Africa, after Nigeria, Algeria, and Mozambique[16]. Total natural gas reserves are expected to significantly increase within the next few years because of the recent natural gas discoveries. Despite new discoveries, Egypt’s dry natural gas production declined by 31% from 2012 to 2016, leading to net imports since 2015. Egypt produced approximately 4.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of dry natural gas and imported 1.0 Bcf/d in 2016 (Figure 2).

To satisfy growing domestic demand, Egypt has had to divert its natural gas supply away from exports to the domestic market and to rely on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to address the shortfall in consumption. Egypt acquired two floating storage and re-gasification units (FSRUs) in 2015; plans for a third FSRU were canceled in 2016 because of higher anticipated domestic production[17]. Much of the natural gas consumed in Egypt is used to fuel electric power plants (Figure 3), and the Egyptian government encourages households, businesses, and the industrial sector to consider natural gas as a substitute for petroleum products and coal.

The Egyptian government has fast-tracked the development of the Zohr and Atoll fields and the West Nile Delta (WND) project. These fields are expected to make substantial additions to overall supply. Discovered in August 2015 and labeled as the largest offshore natural gas field in the Mediterranean, the Zohr gas field has an estimated reserve of 30 Tcf and is currently producing 0.4 Bcf/d. Natural gas production began in 2017 and is expected to produce 1 Bcf/d after the first phase of the project is completed in 2018; peak plateau production is estimated at 2.7 Bcf/d and is expected to be reached by the end of 2019[18]. Eni holds the largest stake at 50%, with Rosneft, BP, and Mubadala Petroleum owning 30%, 10%, and 10% stakes, respectively[19]. Natural gas production at the Atoll field also began in February 2018 and is currently producing 0.35 Bcf/d of natural gas and 10,000 b/d of condensate. Production began seven months ahead of schedule and the field has an estimated 1.5 Tcf of natural gas and 31 million barrels of condensates, with other areas still under evaluation[20]. Developed as two separate projects to speed up development, the WND project started producing natural gas in March 2017 and is currently producing more than 0.7 Bcf/d and 1,000 b/d of condensate; the two projects are expected to be fully online in 2019 and to produce close to 1.5 Bcf/d, all of which is expected to feed into Egypt’s national electricity grid. BP is the main operator and holds an 82.75% stake. DEA Deutsche Erdoel AG holds the remaining 17.25% stake[21]. Although the government hopes the new discoveries coming online will allow the country to resume natural gas exports, imports will most likely still be needed to satisfy domestic demand, albeit at smaller volumes.

Trade

Egypt plays a central role in the transit of crude oil between the Gulf states and the Mediterranean region. Natural gas is exported at much smaller volumes because domestic energy needs have taken priority over trade. Recent major natural gas discoveries could potentially lead to increasing exports in the medium term.

Petroleum and other liquids trade

The Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) Pipeline are two major routes for crude oil and natural gas shipments, allowing Egypt to play a significant role in global crude oil and natural gas trade. The Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline are crude oil and LNG transit chokepoints that have strategic significance not only for Egypt but also for global crude oil and LNG trade. Closure of both the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline would require tankers to divert around the southern tip of Africa, adding approximately 8–10 or 15 days of transit to the United States or Europe, respectively, and also leading to increased shipping costs[22].

The Suez Canal is approximately 120 miles long and connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Suez with the Mediterranean Sea. Northbound oil flows through the Suez Canal are larger than southbound oil flows. Northbound oil flows come primarily from the Persian Gulf countries and are destined for Europe and, to a lesser extent, for the United States. Russia, Turkey, the Netherlands, Algeria, and Libya are the significant oil exporting countries that contribute to southbound oil flows, and these exports are primarily destined for Asian markets.

The 200-mile long SUMED Pipeline transports crude oil through Egypt from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. Crude oil flows through two parallel pipelines that have a total capacity of 2.34 million b/d. Oil flows north from the Ain Sokhna terminal along the Red Sea coast to the Sidi Kerir terminal on the Mediterranean Sea. The SUMED Pipeline is also used for lightering vessels. Vessels exceed the Suez Canal’s draft limitations can offload their crude oil at the SUMED Pipeline, go through the Suez Canal, and re-load the crude oil at the other end in the Mediterranean[23].

Natural gas exports

The Arab Gas PipelineEgypt began exporting natural gas via the Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP), a natural gas pipeline that originates in Egypt and connects to Israel, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. The AGP was sabotaged more than a dozen times between 2011 and 2012 and resulted in substantial natural gas supply disruptions to Jordan and Israel. In 2012, Egypt halted natural gas exports to Israel by canceling its long-term supply contract to Israel because of a payment dispute[24]. AGP pipeline exports, which peaked at 0.5 Bcf/d in 2009, stopped after 2014 (Table 1)[25].

Liquefied natural gas (LNG)The Suez Canal transit route also has LNG flows in both directions, accounting for a substantial amount of global LNG trade. Southbound LNG transit primarily originates in Nigeria, France (as re-exports), and Trinidad and Tobago, and most LNG is exported to Egypt, Jordan, and Japan. Nearly all northbound transit originates from Qatar and is exported to European markets[26].

Egypt has two LNG export facilities with a combined capacity of 586 Bcf per year. The Spanish-Egyptian Gas Company (SEGAS) LNG facility in Damietta is a single LNG train with a capacity of 240 Bcf per year and is owned by Union Fenosa Gas (80%) and by EGPC and EGAS (10% each). The SEGAS LNG facility began production in December 2004, but had operated below its nameplate capacity until the plant closed in December 2012 as a result of growing domestic energy demands[27].

Egypt’s other LNG facility, the Egyptian LNG project (ELNG), is located at Idku and is a joint venture that includes Shell, Petronas, EGAS, EGPC, and ENGIE. The facility has two LNG trains, each having a capacity of 172.8 Bcf per year. ELNG began production in May 2005, but the facility was idle from late 2014 to April 2016; it has since sporadic exports of LNG. In 2016, Egypt exported approximately 26 Bcf of LNG (Table 1). Most of the exports went to the Asia-Pacific (61%) and the Middle East (24%), according to the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy (Figure 4).

Table 2. Egypt’s natural gas exports
(billion cubic feet)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pipeline Exports 32 42 11 0 0
LNG Exports 235 133 15 0 26
Total exports 267 175 25 0 26
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, and Cedigaz

Energy consumption

Egypt is the largest oil and natural gas consumer in Africa, accounting for about 22% of petroleum and other liquids consumption and 37% of dry natural gas consumption in Africa in 2016. The reduction of energy subsidies may dampen consumption growth in the near term, but energy consumption is expected to continue growing in the long term.

Egypt is the largest oil and natural gas consumer in Africa, accounting for about 22% of petroleum and other liquids consumption and 37% of dry natural gas consumption in Africa in 2016[28]. The rapid growth of oil and natural gas consumption has been driven by increased industrial output, economic growth, energy-intensive natural gas and oil extraction projects, population growth, an increase in private and commercial vehicle sales, and energy subsidies. Egypt’s total primary energy consumption was approximately 3.61 quadrillion British thermal units in 2016, according to the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy[29]. Oil and natural gas are the primary fuels used to meet Egypt’s energy needs, accounting for 95% of the country’s total energy consumption in 2016 (Figure 5).

According to Business Monitor International (BMI) Research, the increase in fuel prices stemming from a reduction in energy subsidies decreased consumption growth to 3% in 2015, from an average of 4% in 2012 through 2014. Although a subsequent energy subsidy reduction coupled with the value-added tax (VAT) increase to 14% in 2017 resulted in significant increases in diesel and gasoline prices and may dampen consumption growth in the near term, energy consumption is expected to continue growing in the long term, given growth in the transportation sector, a growing population, and an improving economy[30].

Electricity

Egypt experiences frequent electricity blackouts because of natural gas supply shortages and inadequate generation and transmission capacity. The Egyptian government has focused on investing in the power sector and on diversifying its energy mix to accommodate growing energy demand.

According to IHS Markit, the power market in Egypt is primarily operated by SOEs. The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company manage the generation and transmission segments, respectively, and nine other SOEs manage the distribution segment. The Egyptian Electricity Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency is the power market regulator, and the Ministry of Electricity and Energy (MOEE) provides oversight on the six power authorities operating in the electricity sector and sets electricity prices for all sectors in the country[31].

In February 2015, the government approved a new law that allows the privatization of electricity production, transmission, and distribution. The 2015 Electricity Law represents a shift away from a state-directed management role to a regulatory one in the power sector, which could potentially bring in much-needed investment from the private sector by creating a more attractive business environment[32].

According to the MOEE, Egypt has a total installed capacity of 38.86 gigawatts (GW) and generated 186.32 gigawatthours (GWh) in FY 2015–16. Conventional thermal generation accounted for approximately 90% of generation capacity in Egypt, and natural gas-fired generation accounted for approximately 75% of total generation output. Given the development of natural gas projects in the country, natural gas-fired generation is expected to remain the dominant fuel source for generation (Figures 7 and 8)[33].

Egypt has suffered from electricity shortages, particularly in the summer when consumption levels are highest, because of aging infrastructure and inadequate generation and transmission capacity. According to the International Trade Administration, the government has focused on increasing investment in the power sector and diversifying its energy mix to address these gaps. New projects under development include power plants fueled by coal, solar, and wind[34].

Egypt is also planning to expand its power system interconnection with countries in the Middle East and Africa. Egypt and Saudi Arabia signed a $1.6 billion deal to connect the two countries with a 3 GW electricity cable. This connection will provide both Saudi Arabia and Egypt with additional power to mitigate peak demand shortfalls. The project completion date has been postponed and is reportedly in the process of finalizing bidding tenders for transformers, lines, and substations[35]. Egypt’s electric transmission grid is already connected to transmission grids in Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Libya, according to BMI. Egypt is also part of the Nile Basin Initiative and has tentative plans to interlink its transmission grid with nearby African countries in the organization[36].

Renewable energy sources

Hydroelectricity

Hydropower is Egypt’s third-largest energy source after natural gas and oil. According to the most recent estimates by BMI Research, Egypt has an installed capacity of 2.8 GW and generated 13.8 terawatthours (TWh) of hydroelectricity in 2016, accounting for about 7.2% of Egypt’s total power generation (Table 3)[37]. Most of the country’s hydroelectricity comes from the Aswan High Dam and the Aswan Reservoir Dams across the Nile River. However, most of the Nile River’s hydropower potential has already been exploited.

Ethiopia’s plans to build the 6 GW, $4.8 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River have prompted concerns about water shortage to Egypt’s Aswan High Dam and the effects on industries dependent on the Nile River as a water source in Egypt[38]. In 2015, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan signed the Declaration of Principles agreement to conduct studies on the potential impact GERD will have on the Nile River, however, interstate dialogue has not produced any concrete steps to manage the economic and environmental impact the dam will have once it becomes operational. GERD is reportedly expected to be completed by 2018 and will be the largest hydropower plant in Africa[39].

Table 3. Egypt’s hydroelectric plants, fiscal year 2015/16
Refinery operator Commissioning date Installed capacity (MW)
High Dam 1967 2,100
Aswan Dam 1 1960 280
Aswan Dam 2 1985 – 1986 270
Esna 1993 86
Naga Hamadi 2008 64
Total 2,800
Source: Egyptian Electricity Holding Company Annual Report 2015/16

Solar

Egypt has strong potential for developing renewable energy resources, and the government has an ambitious target of developing 4.3 GW of wind and solar power generation capacity by 2018. According to IHS Markit, Egypt currently has only 30 MW of solar power generation capacity, but international companies and institutions have shown strong interest in developing Egypt’s renewables sector[40]. Norway’s Scatec Solar has reached financial closure on a deal to build six solar photovoltaic (PV) plants with a combined capacity of 400 MW as part of a 1.8 GW solar park which the government is looking to develop at Benban[41]. Saudi firm Acwa Power has also reached financial closure on a deal for three solar PV plants with a total capacity of 120 MW at the same location. These plants are expected to begin operating in 2018[42].

Wind

Egypt has abundant wind power resources, especially in the Gulf of Suez and the Nile Valley. According to IHS Markit, Egypt has a total wind power generation capacity of 753 MW generated by the Zafarana (547 MW), Gebel El-Zeit (200 MW), and the Hurghada (5 MW) wind farms. The government plans to increase wind power generation capacity to 7.2 GW by 2020 and currently has a number of wind power projects totaling 2 GW of generation capacity under development or construction[43].

Nuclear power

Egypt maintains a nuclear research program and operates two research nuclear reactors, but Egypt has no commercial nuclear power. Although Egypt is planning to add nuclear power to its energy mix and has signed a preliminary agreement with Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom to construct a commercial plant in El Dabaa. Construction has been repeatedly delayed, and it is unlikely that the plant will be operational in the near or medium term[44].

Notes:

  • Data presented in the text are the most recent available as ofMay 24, 2018.
  • Data are EIA estimates unless otherwise noted.

Endnotes:

1. “Arab Countries in Transition: An Update on Economic Outlook and Key Challenges,” International Monetary Fund, April 9, 2014, page 10, accessed 2/27/2018, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/040914.pdf. “Egypt: Promoting Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity,” World Bank Group, Systematic Country Diagnostic, September 2015, pg. 6, accessed 2/27/2018, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/853671468190130279/pdf/99722-CAS-P151429-SecM2015-0287-IFC-SecM2015-0142-MIGA-SecM2015-0093-Box393212B-OUO-9.pdf.
2. International Monetary Fund. IMF Country Report No. 18/14, December 11, 2017, pg. 23, accessed 2/27/2018, https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/CR/2018/cr1814.ashx. “Egypt: Downstream Profile,” IHS Markit, October 2017.
3. “Ministry Hierarchy,” Arab Republic of Egypt, Ministry of Petroleum, accessed 3/5/2018, http://www.petroleum.gov.eg/en/AboutMinistry/Pages/Heirarchy.aspx.
4. “Ministry Hierarchy,” Arab Republic of Egypt, Ministry of Petroleum, accessed 3/5/2018, http://www.petroleum.gov.eg/en/AboutMinistry/Pages/Heirarchy.aspx. “Egypt Oil & Gas Report Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 65.
5. “Egypt Oil & Gas Report Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 65.
6. “Egypt: Oil & Gas Country Profile,” IHS Markit, September 21, 2017.
7. “Egypt: Downstream Profile,” IHS Markit, October 2017.
8. Worldwide look at reserves and production[Table], Oil & Gas Journal, January 1, 2018; January 1, 2010.
9. BP 2017 Statistical Review of World Energy, historical database, accessed 2/26/2018, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html. “Egypt Energy Outlook, Q3 2017,” The Economist Intelligence Unit, August 17, 2017.
10. “Egypt Oil & Gas Report Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 18 – 19. Rystad Energy Upstream Production database, accessed 3/9/2018.
11. “Egypt: Downstream Profile,” IHS Markit, October 2017.
12. 2017 Annual Statistical Bulletin. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 52nd ed., (Table 4.3), pg. 41. “Worldwide Refining Survey,” Oil & Gas Journal, January 1, 2018. BP 2017 Statistical Review of World Energy, historical database, accessed 2/26/2018, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.
13. 2017 Annual Statistical Bulletin. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 52nd ed., (Table 4.6), pg. 45.
14. “Egypt: Downstream Profile,” IHS Markit, October 2017. “Egypt Oil & Gas Report, Q4 2017,” Business Monitor International Research, September 2017, pg. 28.
15. Worldwide look at reserves and production[Table], Oil & Gas Journal, January 1, 2018; January 1, 2010.
16. Worldwide look at reserves and production[Table], Oil & Gas Journal, January 1, 2018.
17. “Egypt LNG Market Report,” IHS Markit, November 7, 2017.
18. “Zohr Gas Field,” www.offshore-technology.com, accessed 3/30/2018, https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/zohr-gas-field/. “Egyptian gas sector poised for growth,” www.newsbase.com, Afroil Issue 721, Week 1, January 9, 2018, pg. 6. “Zohr: from promise to reality,” www.eni.com, accessed 3/30/2018, https://www.eni.com/en_IT/company/fuel-cafe/zohr-infographic-egypt.page.
19. “Eni strikes Zohr sale deal,” www.newsbase.com, Afroil Issue 730, Week 10, March 13, 2018, pg. 7.
20. “BP begins production from Egypt’s Atoll gas field seven months ahead of schedule,” BP Company Press Release, February 12, 2018, accessed 3/30/2018, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/media/press-releases/bp-begins-production-from-egypts-atoll-gas-field-seven-months-ahead-of-schedule.html.
21. “BP announces start of production from West Nile Delta development achieving first gas eight months ahead of schedule and production 20 percent above plan,” BP company press release, May 10, 2017, accessed 3/30/2018, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/media/press-releases/bp-announces-start-of-production-from-west-nile-delta-development.html.
22. “Economic Impact of Piracy in the Gulf of Aden on Global Trade,” U.S. Department of Transportation, 2010, https://www.marad.dot.gov/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Economic_Impact_of_Piracy_2010.pdf. “Oil Market Update,” International Energy Agency, January 31, 2011.
23. U.S. Energy Information Administration. World Oil Transit Chokepoints, July 25, 2017, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=WOTC.
24. The Guardian, “Egypt Cancels Israel Gas Contracts,” (April 23, 2012).
25. BP 2017 Statistical Review of World Energy, historical database, accessed 3/27/2018, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html. IHS Markit, Egypt LNG Market Report, Data Sheet, March 23, 2018.
26. U.S. Energy Information Administration. World Oil Transit Chokepoints, July 25, 2017, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=WOTC.
27. “Egypt: SEGAS LNG,” IHS Markit, Liquefaction Project Profile, December 1, 2017. Paul Day and Oleg Vukmanovic. “Update 1 – Damietta LNG Plant Idled as Egypt Keeps its Gas at Home,” Reuters, February 7, 2013, accessed 3/28/2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/gas-natural-egypt/update-1-damietta-lng-plant-idled-as-egypt-keeps-its-gas-at-home-idUSL5N0B7HKW20130207.
28. BP 2017 Statistical Review of World Energy, historical database, accessed 2/26/2018, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.
29. BP 2017 Statistical Review of World Energy, historical database, accessed 2/26/2018, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.
30. “Egypt: Downstream Profile,” IHS Markit, October 2017. “Egypt Oil & Gas Report, Q4 2017,” Business Monitor International Research, September 2017, pg. 32 – 34.
31. “Africa and Middle East Renewable Power Country Profiles,” IHS Markit, January 12, 2017.
32. “Egypt Power Report, Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 36. “Africa and Middle East Renewable Power Country Profiles,” IHS Markit, January 12, 2017.
33. “Africa and Middle East Renewable Power Country Profiles,” IHS Markit, January 12, 2017. “Egypt Power Report, Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 12 – 13.
34. “Africa and Middle East Renewable Power Country Profiles,” IHS Markit, January 12, 2017. “Egypt Power Report, Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 12 – 13. “Egypt – Electricity Power Systems,” International Trade Administration, Egypt Country Commercial Guide, accessed 2/21/2018, https://www.export.gov/article?id=Egypt-Electricity-Power-Systems.
35. “Egypt Power Report, Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 24 – 25. “Saudi Arabia, Egypt to Invite Bids for $1.6bln Power Link Project in March,” www.pkonweb.com, February 6, 2018, accessed 2/22/2018, http://pkonweb.com/saudi-arabia-egypt-to-invite-bids-for-1-6bln-power-link-project-in-march/. “SEC to raise USD 1.6bln for Saudi-Egypt HVDC interconnection project,” www.glufbase.com, January 9, 2018, accessed 2/22/2018, https://www.gulfbase.com/news/sec-to-raise-usd-1-6bn-for-saudi-egypt-hvdc-interconnection-project/302618.
36. “Egypt Power Report, Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 24 – 25.
37. “Egypt Power Report, Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 19.
38. Khalid Abdelaziz. “Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign new Grand Renaissance Dam agreement,” Reuters, December 29, 2015, accessed 2/23/2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-ethiopia-electricity/egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-new-grand-renaissance-dam-agreement-idUSKBN0UC1B120151229.
39. Abdi Latif Dahir. “A major geopolitical crisis is set to erupt over who controls the world’s longest river,” Quartz Africa, January 17, 2018, accessed 2/23/2018, https://qz.com/1181318/ethiopia-egypt-sudan-and-eritrea-tensions-over-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-on-nile-river/. Heba Saleh and John Aglionby. “Egypt and Ethiopia clash over huge River Nile dam,” Financial Times, December 26, 2017, accessed 2/23/2018, https://www.ft.com/content/58f66390-dfda-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c.
40. IHS Markit, Africa and Middle East Renewable Power Country Profiles project database, January 12, 2017. “Egypt Power Report, Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 17 – 18.
41. “Egypt’s Largest Solar Investor Ties Up Finance For Benban Projects,” Middle East Economic Survey, Vol. 609, Issue 44, November 3, 2017.
42. “Acwa Reaches Financial Close on Egyptian Solar,” Middle East Economic Survey, Vol. 61, Issue 2, January 12, 2018
43. IHS Markit, Africa and Middle East Renewable Power Country Profiles project database, January 12, 2017. “Egypt Power Report, Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 17 – 18.
44. “Egypt Power Report, Q4 2017,” BMI Research, August 2017, pg. 16. Egypt Country Profile, Nuclear Threat Initiative, accessed 2/13/2018.

International Effort To End ‘Me Too’ Abuses

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Governments, employers, and workers from around the world will meet beginning May 28, 2018, to discuss a proposed international treaty on violence and harassment in the workplace, Human Rights Watch said. Human Rights Watch has issued a 16-page report outlining key issues in advance of the International Labour Organization (ILO) conference, scheduled through June 8, in Geneva.

The report sets out research on violence and harassment at work, particularly for domestic workers, garment workers, fishers, farm workers, and migrant workers. It also highlights examples of good government practices and includes recommendations for essential elements to a proposed international ILO convention and for ending violence and harassment in the workplace.

“The ‘Me Too’ movement has highlighted pervasive gender-based violence from the most well-known and powerful industries to the most marginalized and invisible sectors,” said Rothna Begum, Middle East women’s rights researcher at Human Rights Watch. “Countries can help set things right by adopting a global binding standard to prevent and respond to violence and harassment at work.”

The World Bank’s “Women, Business and the Law 2018” report found that 59 out of 189 countries whose economies were studied had no specific legal provisions covering sexual harassment in employment. More broadly, the ILO has noted that there are many gaps in legal protections relating to violence and harassment in the workplace. They include a lack of coherent laws, a lack of coverage in laws and policies for workers most exposed to violence, and an overly narrow definition of “workplace” in existing laws and regulations.

“The ILO is presenting countries a unique opportunity to help end all forms of violence and harassment in the workplace,” Begum said. “Governments, employers, and workers at the ILO conference should move to support a global treaty expected to be ready for adoption next year.”

Trump, North Korea Signal June 12 Summit Could Go Ahead

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(RFE/RL) — A small group of U.S. officials has crossed into North Korea for talks regarding a possible summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The U.S. State Department on May 27 issued a statement confirming that “a U.S. delegation is in ongoing talks with North Korean officials” in the border settlement of Panmunjom.

“We continue to prepare for a meeting between the president and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un,” the statement said.

According to media reports, former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Sung Kim was leading the delegation.

The talks came one day after Trump signaled that preparations for a June 12 summit with Kim in Singapore were going ahead. Days earlier the U.S. leader sent Kim a letter stating that he was canceling the proposed meeting.

Trump said at the White House on May 26 that the date “hasn’t changed” and that things were “moving along very nicely.”

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who met with Kim in a surprise summit earlier on May 26, said the North Korean leader had “agreed that the June 12 summit should be held successfully” and “again made clear his commitment to a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

A statement from North Korea’s state news agency KCNA said Kim expressed “his fixed will” that the meeting with Trump should go ahead.

Moon had told reporters on May 26 that Washington and Pyongyang were planning to hold “practical talks” soon on a possible summit.

“[Kim] also expressed his intention to put an end to the history of war and confrontation through the success of the North-U.S. summit and to cooperate for peace and prosperity,” Moon added.

Trump had called off the summit in a letter to Kim on May 24, citing North Korea’s threat the day before to cancel the summit in a statement condemning U.S. Vice President Mike Pence as a “political dummy.”

“Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I feel it would be inappropriate, at this time, to have this long-planned meeting,” Trump wrote in his letter to Kim.

But he left the door open to a new meeting, saying in the letter to Kim: “If you change your mind having to do with this most important summit, please do not hesitate to call me or write.”

After their surprise summit at the Panmunjom border village on May 26, the two Korean leaders said they had agreed to meet “frequently” and suggested another face-to-face encounter was likely on June 1.

“They shared the opinion that they would meet frequently in the future to make dialogue brisk and pool wisdom and efforts, expressing their stand to make joint efforts for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,”KCNA reported.

It was their second summit in the past two months. After the meeting, KCNA said that another “high-level” meeting would be held on June 1, but it did not specifically say that the two Korean leaders would participate.

KCNA suggested following the summit that Kim was still interested in meeting with the U.S. president.

“Kim Jong Un thanked Moon Jae-in for the considerable effort made by him for the DPRK-U.S. summit scheduled for June 12, and expressed his fixed will on the historic DPRK-U.S. summit talks,” the report said, using the abbreviation for North Korea.

South Korea’s presidential spokesman responded that “we are cautiously optimistic that hope is still alive for U.S.-North Korea dialogue.”

Cyber Caliphate: What Apps Are The Islamic State Using? – Analysis

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By Alexander Mamaev*

As the argument goes, law enforcement agencies must protect the safety of citizens, and to do so, they must be in contact with representatives of the IT sector. This in turn compels the representatives of mail services, messaging apps, and smartphone manufacturers to contact the authorities and disclose user information. However, excesses do occur, and the founder of the Telegram messaging app Pavel Durov refused to provide the FSB with their encryption keys. Telegram was repeatedly accused of being the messaging application of terrorists, and in the context of the messaging service’s being blocked, the discussion surrounding the rights of citizens to engage in private correspondence grew more heated. The example of the Islamic State, however, only goes to show that militants shall not live by Telegram alone: they act much more competently and work to keep a step ahead of law enforcement agencies. What tools do terrorists actually use and how should we fight against the digital technologies of militants?

Different Goals, Different Weapons

The success of Islamic State militants can largely be attributed to brilliant propaganda work. Depending on their goals, militants have been able to resort to various tools for propaganda, recruitment, and communication between group members. Propaganda includes all the usual tools: videos, online magazines, radio stations, brochures, and posters designed for both Arabic and Western audiences.

Western services have played a cruel joke on Western society, facilitating the distribution of propaganda videos like, for example, one of the most popular clips, “Salil as-savarim” (The Sound of Swords) on YouTube and Twitter as well as through file sharing services such as archive.org and justpaste.it. YouTube administrators repeatedly deleted the videos, but they were simply uploaded once again from new accounts with the number of views driven up by reposting them on Twitter. The use of Twitter for these purposes is discussed in detail in the article “Twitter and Jihad: the Communication Strategy of ISIS”, published in 2015. According to the former national security adviser of Iraq, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, it was in large part thanks to Twitter and Facebook that 30,000 Iraqi soldiers lay down their weapons, removed their uniforms, and abandoned Mosul to jihadis without a fight in 2014. [1].

ISIS has taken into account the mistakes of its jihadi predecessors and has skilfully set its own propaganda up against attempts by the foreign press to portray it in a negative light. However, on a deeper, internal level, militants employ other communication tools more reliable than social networks.

Anonymous Networks

In September 2017, political scientist and member of the non-profit RAND Corporation and the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism at The Hague, Colin P. Clarke suggested that ISIS would most likely continue to use encrypted messaging to organize direct terrorist attacks abroad even if the caliphate were to become a “less centralized entity”.

However, terrorists have already resorted to using such tools for some time now. In early 2015, it became known that ISIS had developed a 34-page manual on securing communications. The document, based on a Kuwaiti firm’s manual on cybersecurity, popped up in jihadi forums. The document also listed those applications considered most suitable for use, such as Mappr, a tool for changing the location of a person in photographs. The Avast SecureLine application facilitates the achievement of similar goals, masking the user’s real IP address by specifying, for example, an access point in South Africa or Argentina in place of, say, Syria.

Jihadis have advised using non-American companies such as Hushmail and ProtonMail for email correspondence. Hushmail CEO Ben Cutler acknowledged in comments to Tech Insider that the company had been featured in the manual, but added that “It is widely known that we cooperate fully and expeditiously with authorities pursuing evidence via valid legal channels”. In turn, CEO of Proton Technologies AG Andy Yen mentioned that besides ProtonMail, terrorists likewise made use of Twitter, mobile phones, and rental cars. “We couldn’t possibly ban everything that ISIS uses without disrupting democracy and our way of life,” he emphasized.

For telephone calls, the manual recommended the use of such services as the German CryptoPhone and BlackPhone, which guarantee secure message and voice communications. FireChat, Tin Can and The Serval Project provide communication even without access to the Internet, for example, by using Bluetooth. The programs recommended by terrorists for encrypting files are VeraCrypt and TrueCrypt. The CEO of Idrix (the maker of VeraCrypt) Mounir Idrassi admitted that “Unfortunately, encryption software like VeraCrypt has been and will always be used by bad guys to hide their data”. Finally, the document makes mention of Pavel Durov’s messaging system, Telegram.

It was a massive information campaign that saw Telegram branded with the unofficial stamp of messaging app of terrorists. Foreign politicians played their part. Three days before the attack on the Berlin Christmas Fair in December 2016, senior members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee urged Durov to immediately take steps to block ISIS content, warning him that terrorists were using the platform not only for propaganda, but also to coordinate attacks. Moreover, Michael Smith, an advisor to the US Congress and co-founder of Kronos Advisory, claims that Al-Qaeda also used Telegram to communicate with journalists and spread news to its followers. Against this backdrop, Telegram reported on the blocking of 78 channels used by terrorists. It was this interest and pressure from the authorities that ultimately caused the militants to seek a replacement for this messaging service.

Monitoring Safety

Telegram representatives have repeatedly claimed that their messaging service is the safest in the world thanks to the use of end-to-end encryption. However, this is at very least doublespeak: end-to-end encryption is used only in secret chat rooms and even then possesses obvious shortcomings, as pointed out by Sergey Zapechnikov and Polina Kozhukhova in their article On the Cryptographic Resistance of End-to-End Secure Connections in the WhatsApp and Telegram Messaging Applications [2]. In particular, due to the vulnerability of the SS7 network, which manifests itself through authorization via SMS, it is possible to access chats. Secret chats cannot be hacked, but you can initiate any chat on behalf of the victim. Secondly, developers violated one of the main principles of cryptography – not to invent new protocols independently if protocols with proven resistance assessments that solve the same tasks already exist. Thirdly, the use of the usual Diffie–Hellman numerical protocol and the lack of metadata security, so that you can track message transfer on the server, add any number from the messaging service’s client to the address book, and find out the time a person came online.

In this context, WhatsApp seems more reliable since it uses end-to-end encryption for all chats and generates a shared secret key using the Diffie–Hellman protocol on elliptical curves. Many terrorists have recourse to this messenger. In May 2015, in “The Life of Muhajirun”, the blog of a woman writing about her and her husband’s trip to Germany, the author wrote about how her husband contacted smugglers by WhatsApp while in Turkey.

In the article Hacking ISIS: How to Destroy the Cyber Jihad Malcolm W Nance; Chris Sampson; Ali H Soufan, the authors recount the story of Abderrahim Moutaharrik, who planned an attack on a Milan synagogue with the intent of fleeing afterwards to Syria. He used WhatsApp to coordinate the attack. Italian police were able to identify the criminal after an audio message was sent.

However, jihadis are skeptical about WhatsApp, and not only for reasons of security. In January 2016, a supporter of jihad, security expert Al-Habir al-Takni, published a survey of 33 applications for smartphones, separating them into “safe”, “moderately safe”, and “unreliable”. WhatsApp ended up at the bottom of the rating. In defence of his opinion, the expert mentioned that the messaging service had been purchased by the Israeli Company Facebook (WhatsApp was bought by Mark Zuckerberg in 2014 for $19 billion, the messenger has 1 billion users worldwide).

In the light of complaints about Telegram and WhatsApp and as laws are tightened, terrorists have become preoccupied with the creation of their own application. In January 2016, the Ghost Group, which specializes in the fight against terrorism, uncovered online an instant messaging service created by militants, Alrawi. This Android application cannot be downloaded on Google Play – it is only available on the Dark Web. Alrawi has come to take the place of Amaq — a messaging service providing access to news and propaganda videos, including videos of executions and videos from the battlefield. Unlike Amaq, Alrawi possesses complete encryption. The Ghost report noted that after American drone strikes destroyed the prominent cybersecurity specialist Junaid Hussain in the summer of 2015, the cyber caliphate’s effectiveness declined dramatically. “They currently pose little threat to Western society in terms of data breaches, however that is subject to change at any time” a spokesperson for the hacker group said in a conversation with Newsweek.

The Game to Get Ahead

Jihadis, like hackers, are often a step ahead of the authorities and in tune with the latest technological innovations. Gabriel Weimann, a professor at the University of Haifa in Israel and the world’s foremost researcher of Internet extremism, noted that terrorist groups tend to be the first users of new online platforms and services. As social media companies lag behind in the fight against extremism on their platforms, terrorist groups become more experienced in modifying their own communication strategies. “The learning curve is now very fast, once it took them years to adapt to a new platform or a new media. Now they do it within months,” said G. Weimann.

These words can be confirmed: every popular service, like WhatsApp or Telegram, has alternatives that jihadis are more than willing to make use of. In the above-mentioned article Hacking ISIS: How to Destroy the Cyber Jihad, the authors list dozens of other services jihadis utilize. For example, Edward Snowden’s favourite application, Signal, has open source code, reliably encrypts information, and allows you to exchange messages and calls with subscribers from your phone book. Signal is community sponsored through grants. According to Indian authorities, ISIS member Abu Anas used Signal as a secure alternative to WhatsApp. Another solution, released in 2014, is the messaging service Wickr, created by a group of cyber security and privacy specialists. It was this application that first made it possible to assign a “life” to a message, ranging from a few minutes to several days. Wickr destroys messages not only on smartphones, telephones, and computers, but also on the servers through which correspondence passes. The program has a function to erase the entire history, and after it has been used messages cannot be restored by any means. Australian Jake Bilardi came across an ISIS recruitment message in Telegram and was to meet with a recruiter through Wickr, though he was detained in time.

Surespot, Viber, Skype and the Swedish messaging system Threema are also mentioned. The latter application deserves to be mentioned on its own — Threema received 6 out of a possible 7 points for security from the Electronic Frontier Foundation (a non-profit human rights organization founded in the U.S. with the aim of protecting, in the era of technology, the rights established in the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence). Jihadis have also called the Silent Circle application a preferred app. After learning of this, the developers tightened security requirements, compelled by the fact that one of the creators, Mike Janke, is a former naval officer. Silent Circle now cooperates with governments and intelligence agencies. Though the list doesn’t end there — Junaid Hussain likewise made use of Surespot and Kik.

Militants have a great number of communication tools at their disposal in accordance with the goals they happen to be pursuing.

But if applications are primarily used on smartphones, other programs exist for laptops and PCs, readily used by both Information Security specialists and jihadis; for example, the Tor browser or T.A.I.L.S (The Amnesic Incognito Live System), a Debian-based Linux distribution created to provide privacy and anonymity. All outgoing T.A.I.L.S connections are wrapped in the Tor network, and all non-anonymous ones are blocked. The system leaves no trace on the device on which it was used. T.A.I.L.S. was used by Edward Snowden to expose PRISM, the US State Program, the purpose of which was the mass collection of information sent over telecommunication networks.

It can be concluded that militants have a great number of communication tools at their disposal in accordance with the goals they happen to be pursuing. Banning or blocking these tools will not ensure victory over the terrorists, though that is not to say the methods should be abandoned altogether. The best method to employ is that of having agents infiltrate terrorist ranks to ensure constant online and offline monitoring.

About the author:
*Alexander Mamaev
, PhD in Technical Sciences, CEO of Digital Forensic Laboratory

Source:
Modern Diplomacy and first published in our partner RIAC

  1. Michael Weiss, Hassan: ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror, ANF, Moscow, 2016
  2. Sergey Zapechnikov, Polina Kozhukhova, On the Cryptographic Resistance of End-to-End Secure Connections in the WhatsApp and Telegram Messaging Applications: NRNU MEPhI, Information Technology Security, Volume 24, No. 4, 2017

How Identity Politics Is Changing Universities – OpEd

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By William L. Anderson*

Ours is a politicized age from the college campus to the corporate boardroom, a situation in which things that once were personal now are utterly political. The hard left now controls not only higher education, but also much of scientific research upon which the future of humanity as we know it depends. What began in 1969 as the establishment of a single course in Women’s Studies at Cornell University and similar courses elsewhere in what then were called Black Studies has metastasized into a monster that almost completely dominates higher education in the United States and Canada. Today, it is rare to find a college or university that does not have majors and programs in Identity Studies.

This long march of feminists and racialists from near-obscurity to absolute-dominance is compared to the rise of Snopes family created by author William Faulkner in his 1940 novel, The Hamlet. In Faulkner’s book, the Snopeses move into the Mississippi community of Frenchman’s Bend and slowly take over nearly all aspects of life. Even though the locals seem to understand what is taking place, they are seemingly helpless because they heard the rumor that people that made a Snopes unhappy would have their barns burned to the ground.

In campus politics, the activists did not threaten to burn only the barns but rather the entire college campus. Anyone in higher education that might allegedly say or write something that offends someone in a politically-protected group is likely to be the focus of the infamous Twitter Mob, and even a distinguished career and something as prestigious as a Nobel Prize offers no cover, as Tim Hunt found out. For that matter, truth itself is no defense, as we found out in the infamous Duke Lacrosse Case. All that matters is identity politics, and the Duke case demonstrates just how powerful – and destructive – such politics have become.

In March 2006 at Duke University, a black stripper falsely claimed that three members of the Duke men’s lacrosse team beat and raped her at a team party where she performed, and the Duke campus exploded in anger as the story spread throughout the country, dominating newscasts and the Internet. Shortly after the accusations surfaced, 88 Duke faculty members signed an advertisement in the Duke Chronicle, a student newspaper, condemning the lacrosse players and thanking demonstrators for not waiting to see if the charges were credible.

Some signatories, such as historian William Chafe (who publicly likened the alleged incident to the infamous 1955 murder of Emmett Till), were well-noted academically. However, most signees came from the humanities programs such as Women’s Studies and African-American Studies and had sparse publication resumes and certainly nothing to compare with the publications records of Duke faculty members in the sciences and fields such as economics. For example, Wahneema Lubiano, who still teaches literature and African-American Studies at Duke, has almost no publications, but has listed two forthcoming books for more than a decade. A faculty member with that kind of record in the sciences or the business disciplines long before would have been dismissed for lack of academic productivity, but Lubiano received tenure and promotion at one of the nation’s most elite universities.

This is beyond ironic. First, the rape charges clearly were false, but Duke University officials, journalists, and many others – including the local District Attorney, Michael Nifong, who brought the rape charges – refused even to consider the players’ innocence. Second, even though most of the signatories of the Chronicle advertisement were far less academically proficient than the rest of the Duke faculty, they dominated the campus discourse and cowed other more-accomplished faculty members into silence.

Far from finding themselves academically discredited, many of the signers went on to promotions, being hired at Ivy League universities such as Cornell, Vanderbilt, and to strategic administrative positions at Duke. Instead of weakening the thoroughly-politicized areas of academic study such as Women’s Studies and African-American Studies, creating a witch-hunt atmosphere seems to have strengthened the status and position of those faculty members. Since then, faculty in the Identity Studies disciplines seem to have even more power not only at Duke, but on campuses across the country.

Instead of being subordinate to disciplines such as the sciences, the Identity Studies dominate campus discourse and their advocates now force scientists and mathematicians to bow down to racialism and feminism. Professors that do not stoop quickly or those that resist often are pushed out of their jobs or are marginalized. The feminist uprising that threw Lawrence Summers out of Harvard’s presidency, along with the outcry responsible for the ouster of Nobel Prize-winning scientist Tim Hunt from his university position in Great Britain for remarks that he made as a luncheon speaker, speaks to the influence and power feminism has at the modern university.

In fact, ideologies of identity now are being embedded into actual scientific study itself, a phenomenon embodied by a recent academic paper in the science journal Progress in Human Geography, entitled “Glaciers, gender, and science: A feminist glaciology framework for environmental change research.” The last sentence of the paper’s abstract declares:

Merging feminist postcolonial science studies and feminist political ecology, the feminist glaciology framework generates robust analysis of gender, power, and epistemologies in dynamic social-ecological systems, thereby leading to more just and equitable science and human-ice interactions.

The sentence is laughable on its face, but the politicization of academic study is real. Faulkner’s Snopes family consisted of dull, mediocre but dogged people who strategically-placed themselves in locations in which they gained control over others. The academic Snopeses have done the same, putting themselves not only in important governing and administrative positions on campus, but also in government regulatory jobs such as the Office of Civil Rights in the U.S. Department of Education. While many people in traditional academic pursuits sought to publish and expand knowledge in their fields, those in the Identity Studies sought to expand their own political power by threatening anyone who opposed them, accusing dissenters with accusations of racism, sexism, and homophobia.

Even traditional feminists cannot escape the campus witch hunts that ramped-up enforcement of Title IX of the 1972 Higher Education Act has created. Highly-accomplished Northwestern University film professor Laura Kipnis in 2015 found herself being investigated by her employer for alleged Title IX violations because of an essay she published in The Chronicle of Higher Education entitled “Sexual Paranoia Strikes Academe.” Kipnis, it would seem, had the necessary credentials of a feminist, but that did not matter to the new campus Snopeses. (Northwestern did rule in her favor, but only after Kipnis fought back. She then published another essay, this one on her “inquisition,” and recently publishing a book, Unwanted Advances: Sexual Paranoia Comes to Campus, about her experiences.)

The present situation is close to being a crisis, if not already one. Faculty members on many campuses are being forced to sign “diversity statements,” which are little more than disguised loyalty oaths, which should be anathema in higher education. Universities are demanding conformity that is reminiscent of the Lysenkoism that infected universities and the scientific community of the U.S.S.R. for decades, and with disastrous results.

In the end, residents of Frenchman’s Bend were resigned to living under the thumb of the Snopes family. Higher education is heading toward the same fate, but the results will be much more tragic than they were for a tiny hamlet in the imaginary Yoknapatawpha County.

About the author:
*Bill Anderson
is a professor of economics at Frostburg State University in Frostburg, Maryland.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute.

Oil Shock: Entry Point For Deepening Reform – Analysis

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The oil shock poses two risks for India. First, the fear that it will increase the current account deficit. Second, it poses a conundrum of navigating conflicting objectives — preserve the market-based retail oil price mechanism whilst graduating the price shock for consumers and containing inflation.

By Sanjeev Ahluwalia

The latest oil shock — an increase from $69 last year to $80 per barrel this week — is courtesy the American President, Donald Trump, who unilaterally pulled the United States out of the 2015 deal that Iran had reached with the UN’s Permanent Five (US, UK, Russia, France, China) plus Germany. This spooked the global financial markets, which justifiably fear renewed trade sanctions on Iran, ending five per cent of world production. The nuclear deal had ended sanctions and boosted world supply. Prices declined from $84.2 in 2014-15 to $46.2 in 2015-16. New sanctions may reverse the trend.

The gainers are the oil producers. The US President has imposed the supply constraint that OPEC finds difficult. Saudi Arabia, Iran’s Sunni bête noir, is in clover. The 42 per cent increase in prices, relieves fiscal stress; is wonderful for the long-awaited listing of Aramaco, its national oil company, and avoids the unpleasantness of having to tax its citizens or reducing their benefits.  Other countries in the Gulf, Venezuela and Russia will also benefit. America’s shale oil producers, for instance, are busily removing the covers on their drills.

The big losers are China and India. For India, higher prices mean a bigger trade deficit and more stress on our foreign exchange reserves. Another outcome is rupee depreciation. Foreign hot money pulls out to “safe haven” destinations in times of trouble. The bleed made the rupee slide by around six per cent to more than Rs 68 against the US dollar from around Rs 64 earlier. But it is still overvalued.

The oil shock poses two risks for India. First, the fear that it will increase the current account deficit (CAD) — the difference between international receipts and payments, from trade and income flows — beyond the acceptable level of two per cent of GDP.

Second, it poses a conundrum of navigating conflicting objectives — preserve the market-based retail oil price mechanism whilst graduating the price shock for consumers and containing inflation.

At $80 a barrel, our additional spend on oil imports will be $9 billion this fiscal, net of the increased earnings from oil product exports. But the threat to keeping the CAD below the target of two per cent of GDP is over-hyped.  The oil shock has a silver lining. With more robust fiscal balances in the Gulf, investment and jobs will increase for Indian workers, who generously remit all their earnings. Inward remittances, higher than $69 billion last year, will dilute the impact on CAD. More petro-dollars to spend will boost our exports to the Gulf.

Second, the accompanying six per cent depreciation of the Indian rupee will make our price-sensitive exports much more competitive. Last year exports grew by 12.1 per cent to $300 billion. A three per cent growth in exports this year would generate the additional spend needed on oil imports of $9 billion.

Third, a weaker rupee discourages imports generally. Last year total imports increased by 21 per cent. Making domestic producers more competitive is in India’s interest.

Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari had recently claimed that subsidising oil consumers is not aligned with a market economy. It is in a market economy that the question of targeted subsidy arises. In an old, Soviet-style economy, there are no subsidies because the government set the retail price. In our context, this is analogous to directing ONGC to absorb the cost. This is best avoided. Last year, ONGC assisted in achieving the disinvestment target by buying the government’s shareholding in HPCL. Such measures to support the government, whilst undesirable, are preferable to diluting ONGCs commercial autonomy for pricing products, which also distorts markets for the private sector.

Three options present themselves. First, intrusive Budget scrutiny can do the trick. A fiscal “surgical strike” slashing frivolous expenditure, which has crept in, can generate the Rs 0.6 trillion to sanitise consumers from a price increase. This is just six per cent of the Rs 10 trillion, which the Central government spends on schemes without including wages, pensions, interest or capital expenditure.

Second, it is not desirable to entirely sanitise customers from the oil shock. This will kill the liberalised “marked to market” regime for retail prices of oil products, introduced last year. It is also environmentally irresponsible not to have a price signal to induce lower consumption and incentivise users to switch to more efficient end-use equipment — cars, motorcycles, water pump and generators. Mr. Gadkari is right. A portion of the oil shock should be passed through. But state governments must be cajoled to give up the windfall gain accruing to them because VAT is an ad valorem rate and not a specific rate as is Central excise.

Lastly, Budget 2018-19 projects a fiscal deficit of 3.3 per cent of GDP versus 3.5 per cent in 2017-18. The target is not credible. Capitalisation of stressed public sector banks; agriculture minimum support price revisions; and the new flagship “Ayushman Bharat” medical insurance scheme will push the deficit beyond the target. The N.K. Singh committee report on Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management “blessed” variations in fiscal deficit capped at four per cent of GDP. Following this lead can provide Rs 1.3 trillion to the finance minister, including for partly absorbing oil price increase. But stoking inflation is a real risk here.

A further increase to the 2011-2014 level of $100+ a barrel is unlikely. Oil producers, like Venezuela, need to cash into the high price. Sanctions on Iran, even if imposed, will not bite till the end of this fiscal year. If oil spikes nevertheless, a temporary adjustment loan, from the IMF, can dilute this external shock, which can otherwise jeopardise our carbon emission targets. The continued supply of Iranian oil, but denominated in rupees, like the Russian trade earlier, is also possible. The United States may accept such necessary but limited “exceptions” for Iran to buy goods “needed by the Iranian people” to survive.

Economic stress creates reform entry points because the urgency becomes publicly visible. 1991 was an extreme event. The 2018 shock is low intensity in comparison. But it can help to push the needed third generation of reforms — deep fiscal austerity, energy security and PSU autonomy.

This article originally appeared in The Asian Age.

Russia’s Illusory ‘Third Road’– Analysis

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Time was not passing . . . it was turning in a circle.                                                                                                    – Gabriel García Márquez, One Hundred Years of Solitude

If one lives without sorrow and anger, one does not love
the motherland. – Nikolay Alexeyevich Nekrasov, “Gazetnaya” (1865)

By John R. Haines*

(FPRI) — In the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, writes Elena Chebankova, “Russia’s ‘natural’ mission was seen in embracing liberal democratic values and joining the ‘normal’ (western) league of states with its institutions serving as a benchmark of progressing development. The arrival of Putin has subverted this paradigm. . . . The nature of ‘Russian’ ideology, the specific character of Russian society . . . became the most commonplace points of public and academic scrutiny.”[1]

Vladislav Surkov is a longtime adviser to President Putin and his lead negotiator in the Minsk accord discussions—a post from which it is rumored he was just ousted. The anti-dezinformatsiya portal Informatsionnoye soprotivleniye calls him a “downed pilot” (sbitym letchikom)[2] using Alexandr Kabakov’s colorful term for Putin-era high flyers brought low.[3] The Russian government’s longtime public face in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, eastern Ukraine, and elsewhere, Mr. Surkov has apparently come to grief over his failed Minsk-2 negotiating strategy and escalating conflict with Alexander Bortnikov of Russia’s Federal’naya sluzhba bezopasnosti. All this seems to have rendered Mr. Surkov of little use to Mr. Putin at present.

So what do downed pilots do? Their role, writes Igor Yakovenko (who considers himself one) is “much more important than when we were ‘in the sky’ (v nebe) . . . our place now is on the ground, as instructors, trainers, mechanics.”[4] Mr. Surkov’s contribution is a brooding reflection on Russia’s place in the world, “The Solitude of the Half-Breed” (Odinochestvo polukrovki. Like most Russians, Mr. Surkov finds it inconceivable, as Richard Sakwa writes, “that a country of Russia’s size, civilization and history could simply join the ranks of the medium-sized powers such as the UK and France as a subordinate element in the existing world order.”[5]

It is a truism that interpretations of the recent past weigh heavily on current political thought.[6] Russia, Thomas Gomart argued a decade ago, “faces a strong paradox: its geopolitical omnipresence . . . goes hand in hand with a profound strategic solitude,” a condition “hard-wired in [the Kremlin’s] strategic mindset.”[7] That condition bears closely on “Russia’s historic conundrum . . . her almost inescapable lenience toward offering a metaphysical and ontological ‘alternative’ to Europe.”[8]

Mr. Putin handles that task with greater subtlety than Mr. Surkov. “Russia has always felt like a Euro-Asian country,”[9] said Mr. Putin in November 2000, a qualitatively different assertion than Mr. Surkov’s that Russia is a not-West and a not-East. While Mr. Putin’s Russia is as “an integral part of the West, yet special. Russia would travel the same road as the rest of Europe, along its eastern edge,” it does not mean, one commentator notes, “Russia is going in the same direction as the rest of Europe.”[10] Mr. Surkov argues Russia should travel neither west nor east, which leaves him, one supposes, pulled over to the side of Mr. Putin’s metaphorical road in search of some illusory third way. As to Mr. Surkov’s “half-breed” (polukrovki) metaphor, Gleb Kuznetsov scathingly dismisses it as “simply some kind of escapist revel, a geopolitical Tolkienism . Yes, my mom and dad gave birth to me, but I’m not really them, because the elf. Or the hobbit. So record me that way in your census.”[11]

*****

Vladislav Surkov—a November 2014 The Atlantic profile called him “the hidden author of Putinism” in somewhat overheated prose—published in April a notable if (in the West) under-studied essay in the Russian foreign policy journal, Rossiya v global’noy politike (“Russia in Global Politics”). Its provocative title is “The Solitude of the Half-Breed” (Odinochestvo polukrovki).[12]

An experienced and willing polemicist, Mr. Surkov delights in arguing Russia’s uniqueness in a world dominated by Western [read: American[13]] duplicity. Consider this from his November 2017 essay “Crisis of Hypocrisy: ‘I Hear America Singing’,” published on the Russian government-controlled media portal RT:

Hypocrisy in the rationalist paradigm of the Western civilization is inevitable for two reasons. Firstly, the structure of speech itself, or at least coherent, ‘sensible’ speech, is too linear, too formal to reflect so-called reality in its entirety. . . . What seems logical is always more or less false. Language is a two-dimensional space, and all its means of expression, all its ‘richness and diversity,’ in fact reduce to countless repetition, on a different scale and on different subjects, of the simplest semantic pair ‘yes/no’.[14]

What Mr. Surkov meant to convey is perhaps more clearly articulated in the now decade-old speech in which he introduced his notion of “sovereign democracy”[15] (suverennaya demokratiya):

[I]n our intellectual and cultural traditions, synthesis prevails over analysis, idealism over pragmatism, imagery over logic, intuition over reason, the general over the particular. This, of course, does not mean Russians lack analytical abilities, or that Western Europeans lack intuition. . . . So let’s just say that a Russian is more interested in time, and less so in how an alarm clock works. We’re culturally rooted in the perception of the whole, not the manipulation of any one particular feature; in aggregation, not division.[16]

He goes on to decry depictions of a Russian bogeyman:

[T]here is a temptation to emphasize the otherness of Russia for the sake of consolidating a European identity. We see it in today’s realpolitik. All these enlarged NATO missile defense systems that must be deployed, are, of course, largely for the purpose of consolidating Western and Central Europe around one—incidentally non-European—center. And for this, we need a myth about some unreliable entity poised on the outskirts, about barbarians who stroll along the border and waive their Asian fists.[17]

“Culture is destiny,” he declares in his November 2017 “I Hear America Singing” essay, inveighing that “hypocrisy” will be the West’s undoing:

The second reason for the domination of hypocrites is even deeper . . . A man vocally demands truthfulness and transparency from others but not himself—it’s a natural desire to disarm one’s opponent and to stay armed . . . But hypocrisy’s metaphors periodically become obsolete. From frequent repetition, camouflage phrases depreciate, discrepancies and inconsistencies start to balloon. [ . . . ] The social contract, written in a disintegrating political language, begins to lose force little by little.[18]

For Western “hypocrisy,” read “political correctness,” as that term was elaborated by Russian sociologist Leonid Ionin:

[T]he ideology of contemporary mass democracy, serving on the one hand to legitimize the domestic and foreign policy of Westerns states and their alliances and, on the other, to suppress alternative thinking and impose consensus on ideas and values.[19]

For Mr. Surkov, Russian earnestness is irreconcilable with Western hypocrisy, which in any event renders dialogue with the West pointless.[20] Whether he is out of his depth as a philosopher is left to readers to judge, but Mr. Surkov makes a textbook tu quoque argument. He charges “the West,” i.e., the United States, with inconsistency tantamount to hypocrisy, insofar as American actions contradict its explicit commitments to, in this instance, democracy. He claims that since America fails to honor democratic commitments in their entirety, Russia has no duty to do so either.

Leaving aside whether it is possible to achieve the full measure of democratic ideals in the real world—Mr. Surkin, the philosopher, would surely concede that conceivability does not establish genuine possibility, and moreover, he himself once wrote “democracy is not a fact, but a process”[21]—his claim that Russia is relieved of a duty to honor democratic ideals by virtue of American shortcomings is unsound. Mr. Surkin would not dispute—indeed, he revels in it—that his imagined “third way” (tret’yego puti) little resembles any recognizable Western democratic model.[22]

So, for four centuries Russia went toward the East, and four centuries toward the West. It is rooted in neither. It has taken both roads. Now, however, a creed describing a third pathway, a third type of civilization, a third world, a third Rome will be in demand . . .

And yet we are hardly a third civilization. Rather, we are dual and dualistic (sdvoyennaya i dvoystvennaya). Accommodating both East and West. European and Asian at one and the same time, neither fully Asian nor European.

Our cultural and geopolitical identity is reminiscent of the un-rooted identity of a man born of a mixed marriage. He is everywhere a kinsman, but nowhere a native. He is at home among strangers, but a stranger among his own people. He understands everyone, but nobody understands him. A half-blood, a mongrel, there is something peculiar about him.

Russia is a Western-Eastern, half-blooded country. With its intertwined, bicipital national identity, its half-breed’s mindset, its intercontinental landmass, its bipolar history, Russia is—as it should be—a seeming half-breed, one who is engaging, gifted, beautiful, and solitary.

As for solitary Russia’s friends, Mr. Surkov wrote, “Wonderful words, never uttered by Alexander III, ‘Russia has only two allies, the army and the navy,’ is perhaps the most easily understood metaphor of geopolitical isolation . . . [23]

He closes his essay (somewhat inexplicably) by quoting lyrics from Nevalyashka, written in 2012 by the Oxford-educated Russian rapper, Oxxxymiron:

Bitch, where do the stars shine?

As usual, through the hedgerows and thorny undergrowth of the
borderlands[24]

Mr. Surkov sunnily tells Russians, “It [the future] will be interesting. And the stars will appear.” (Budet interesno. I zvezdy budut.) While intending his essay (and Oxxxymiron’s lyrics) to be uplifting, it reads more as a lamentation for lost greatness. His dour tone is perhaps better captured by other Oxxxymiron lyrics toward the end of Nevalyashka:

Our creator either covered his ears or really didn’t care,

And we were born in the wrong era,

In a bleak country, the wrong half of the world,

We remember every word.[25]

Much of the commentary around Mr. Surkov’s essay speaks to its bleak tone, and whether Mr. Surkov is out of place in the deep end of the intellectual pool. Stanislav Varykhanov, a longtime Pravda contributor, uses Mr. Surkov’s Alexander III quote as a point of departure for his Moskovskiy Komsomolets commentary:

As the threat of a direct military confrontation between the nuclear powers grows, the words of Alexander III about the army and navy as Russia’s only allies intrude increasingly into the Russian public space. Vladislav Surkov did not avoid the monarchy aphorism in his seminal article, “Solitude of the Half-Breed.” One can agree, or argue, with the article, but regardless the question arises: Is Alexander III’s political legacy accurately understood by those who embrace the Tsar’s classic expression?[26]

Condemning Mr. Surkov’s essay as “a song of defeat” (eto pesn’ porazheniya), Ukrainian journalist Viktor Tregubov writes that while “there’s little in it that’s optimistic for Russia, there is optimism for others.” He dismisses Mr. Surkov’s thesis with biting satire:

Not “We fucked up in Crimea, fucked up in the Donbas, fucked up in Syria,” but instead, “We’re mystifyingly charismatic, witty, clever and solitary half-breeds.”

Not “We made incomprehensible, avoidable mistakes all around,” but “We’re preordained to play the tragic heroes, not to live grandiose lives—it’s a simple truth and where we start from.”

Not “We failed to find some global human rights model to ingrain here in Russia,” but “They don’t work here, and never had much reason to anyway.”[27]

While one might simply shrug off Mr. Surkov’s rhapsodic pro-Putin musings, Aleksandr Obolonskiy discerns an ominous undertone:

A thin red line separates patriotism from the degeneration into nationalism that is nearly inconspicuous at its onset . . . Historically, the symbiosis of traditional geopolitical goals and modern means of achieving them has prevailed in Russia . . . the ideology of the “special path” (osobogo puti) and its associated mythology is one of the main foundations of the political legitimization of the modern authoritarian regime. [28]

Mr. Obolonskiy deplores the instrumental (ab)use of ethnic consciousness (etnicheskogo samosoznaniya) by Mr. Surkov and others:

Meanwhile, we see the revival of neo-imperial chimeras, even their use as “justification” (obosnovyvayutsya). The basis of their new lease on life (vtoruyu zhizn’ literally, “second life”) is semi-scientific at best, often consisting merely of mythological, poetical ideas about an ethnic group’s “historical homeland,” which allegedly confers some preferential rights to “ancestral” (iskonnyye) lands. Then there is the quasi-legalization of the ethnic (etnicheskogo). Ancient state borders, long consigned to oblivion or altered entirely—or conversely, the absence of borders—transform some modern states into objects of emotionally charged fake news, ethnic hatred, and targets for ethnic cleansing. These phantoms then begin to grow flesh. Some new “fair” borders drawn on maps find their way into political declarations and speeches, which are internalized by the public as a sort of dream about a lost homeland. It is combustible material waiting for a political “spark” (iskry). And every so often, one eventually appears. So it was in Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, Kosovo in the late 1990s, and Ukraine in 2014. In modern Russia, the thirst to redraw borders coalesced with nostalgia for the “lost great nation” and, unfortunately, found fertile soil.[29]

He embraces Emil Pain’s[30] thesis, that “the concept of ‘a special civilization’ from which ideas of Russia’s ‘special path’ and the ‘special democracy’ derive . . . has a simple and prosaic purpose: to ‘consecrate’ historically the political regime that formed in the 2000s,” i.e., Mr. Putin’s.[31]

An interesting opposite (to Mr. Surkov’s) point of view comes from the ultranationalist political figure Vladimir Zhirinovsky, longtime leader of Russia’s LDPR[32] political party.

Why all these complaints that we’re half-blooded? The whole world is half-blooded today; everyone’s a mixture. America’s for the most part a melting pot, China an assimilation. Turks, Greeks, Bulgarians, Georgians, Armenians, Slavs—all are admixtures in today’s world. And it will be more so in the future: migrants go everywhere—to Europe, to America, to Russia. [. . .] Yes, it’s true, we’re not the West and not the East—that’s a fundamental truth of Russia’s existence. The East is an eternal despotism, something terrible, something connected with Genghis Khan or Mao Zedong, with the Basmachi movement or the Taliban. Europe has lost all its colonies and today is like a homeless person, no longer its own master. The real master sits overseas. Our people live freely in all countries of the world and enjoy great respect and influence there, especially the many of us living in Europe and the United States.[33]

Mr. Zhirinovsky suggests an alternate “third way”:

There is a third way—to the South. The places we’ve perennially gone—Turkey, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan. Together, we can create a confederation, one that will outweigh the EU in terms of population as well as economic and military resources. This plan is quite realistic, but we won’t rush things. There’s already been an effort to strengthen Moscow’s ties with Ankara and Tehran. And close behind, Kabul and Islamabad are made-up countries that, under Iranian influence, would gladly join our new association. Just like the Arabs—Syria, Iraq and other Arab countries that we’ve always helped. But this doesn’t mean we should only focus to the south. It behooves us to act just a little at a time. Today’s domestic and foreign policy, it’s a cocktail, it’s vinaigrette—take something from the East, something from the West, something from the South. No one today can afford to adhere to a rigid ideology, to quixotic beliefs likes communism, liberalism, or conservatism.[34]

He concludes by advising Mr. Surkov to cast aside his gloomy view of Russia’s position in the world:

You have in your soul, Vladislav Yurievich, an early cold spring or a cloudy late autumn. Forget about March and November—let’s live a hot July and let it last longer than the vastness of Russia . . . Don’t be discouraged, Vladislav Yurievich, no less wonderful times await us. Let’s say, in five to ten years, you’ll write a new article exclaiming, “We’re many, we’re happy, and it’s a festival.” Then you’ll surely recount my advice and point out that I helped you shake off the gloom and loneliness you felt . . . It’s a great pleasure to help you see what’s happening and to tell you: “Vladislav Yurievich, everything is much better than you think!”[35]

Mr. Zhirinovsky plays the Russian neo-con to Mr. Surkov’s neo-isolationist, if Western political labels can be adapted to modern Russian geopolitical discourse. The former is gleefully expansionist in a revanchist neo-Soviet mold, while the latter promotes a self-induced containment of a sort. They share this in common, however: each is essentially backward looking, one cheerfully so and the other anguished. It may be that Mr. Surkov’s dejected tone reflected what came soon after for him—his rumored resignation as an aide to President Putin[36]—something that may signal Russian intentions to prolong the current hiatus in talks about the status of Ukraine’s Donbas region. It is hard to escape, however, a sense among the core Russian leadership of a despairing nostalgia of the sort captured byIn the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, writes Elena Chebankova, “Russia’s ‘natural’ mission was seen in embracing liberal democratic values and joining the ‘normal’ (western) league of states with its institutions serving as a benchmark of progressing development. The arrival of Putin has subverted this paradigm. . . . The nature of ‘Russian’ ideology, the specific character of Russian society . . . became the most commonplace points of public and academic scrutiny.” [ Gabriel García Márquez in his classic novel, One Hundred Years of Solitude:

She felt so old, so worn out, so far away from the best moments of her life that she even yearned for those that she remembered as the worst . . . Her heart of compressed ash, which had resisted the most telling blows of daily reality without strain, fell apart with the first waves of -nostalgia.

The translation of all source material is by the author unless otherwise noted.

About the author:
*John R. Haines
is a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute and Executive Director of FPRI’s Princeton Committee. He is also a Trustee of FPRI.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Notes:
[1] Elena Chebankova (2018). Book Review of New Trends in Russian Political Mentality: Putin 3.0, Elena Shestopal, ed. Slavic Review 77:1 (Spring 2018) 289-291.

[2] “«Sbityy letchik», ili Chto budet pisat’ Surkov posle otstavki.” Informatsionnoye soprotivleniye [published online in Russian 14 May 2018]. https://sprotyv.info/ru/news/kiev/sbityy-letchik-ili-chto-budet-pisat-surkov-posle-otstavki. Last accessed 19 May 2018.

[3] Russian journalist Igor Yakovenko describes a “culture of ‘downed pilots’, driven out of a big media, big business, and big politics” (Eto kul’tura «sbitykh letchikov», vytesnennykh iz bol’shogo mediaprostranstva, bol’shoy ekonomiki i bol’shoy politiki). See: Yakovenko (2014). ” Kollazh YEZH.” Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal [published online in Russian 9 January 2014]. https://www.ej.ru/?a=note&id=24138&fb_action_ids=514466895319015&fb_action_types=og.recommends&fb_s. Last accessed 19 May 2018.

[4] Igor Yakovenko (2014). “Golograficheskaya strana.” Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal [published online in Russian 9 January 2014]. https://www.ej.ru/?a=note&id=24138&fb_action_ids=514466895319015&fb_action_types=og.recommends&fb_s. Last accessed 19 May 2018.

[5] See: https://russiandays.co.uk/book/russia-one-hundred-years-of-fortitude-and-solitude/. Last accessed 19 May 2018.

[6] Thomas Gomary (2008). “Russia Alone Forever? The Kremlin’s Strategic Solitude.” Politique étrangère. 2008/5: 23-33.

[7] Ibid.

[8] Chebankova (2018), op cit.

[9] ” Rossiya: novyye vostochnyye perspektivy.” Kremlin.ru [published online in Russian 11 November 2000]. https://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/21132. Last accessed 20 May 2018.

[10] Katri Pynnöniemi (2008). Preface to “New Road, New Life, New Russia. International transport corridors at the conjunction of geography and politics in Russia.” https://tampub.uta.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/67855/978-951-44-7316-6.pdf;sequence=1. Last accessed 18 9 May 2018.

[11] “Predlagayemyy nam vybor «tret’yego puti» – lozhnyy.” Vzglyad [published online in Russian 12 April 2018]. https://vz.ru/opinions/2018/4/12/917281.html. Last accessed 19 May 2019.

[12] Vladimir Surkov (2018). “Odinochestvo polukrovki.” Rossiya v global’noy politike [published online in Russian 9 April 2018]. https://www.globalaffairs.ru/global-processes/Odinochestvo-polukrovki-14-19477. Last accessed 9 May 2018.

[13] The notion of the United States as “The West” (Zapad) is elaborated by Aleksandr Dugin as “the USA is the quintessence of the West, its geopolitical, ideological and religious avant-garde . . . So, all of Western history converges on the United States” (SSHA – summa Zapada, yego geopoliticheskiy, ideologicheskiy i religioznyy avangard . . . Itak, vsya zapadnaya istoriya skhoditsya na SSHA). See: Dugin (2015). “SSHA – kvintessentsiya Zapada.” In Dugin (2015). Russkaya voyna. (Moscow: Algoritm).

[14] Surkov (2017). “Krizis litsemeriya. ‘I hear America singing’.” RT [published online in Russian 9 November 2017]. https://russian.rt.com/world/article/446944-surkov-krizis-licemeriya. Last accessed 9 May 2018.

[15] Mr. Surkov first defined “sovereign democracy” in a 2006 essay “Nationalization of the Future” (Natsionalizatsiya budushchego) as “an image of a society’s political life in which governmental authorities, their bodies and actions are selected, formed and directed exclusively by the Russian nation, in all its diversity and unity, for the sake of achieving material prosperity, freedom and justice by all citizens, social groups and peoples, who are its creators.” He somewhat primly denies coining the term, writing that both “outdated (‘autocracy of the people’) and modern (‘the rule of free people’) Russian terms can serve as near-literal translations,” then elaborating that sovereign democracy “seeks to express the strength and dignity of the Russian people through the development of civil society, a reliable government, a competitive economy, and an effective means for influencing world events.” Mr. Surkov writes that to “the clamorous faction of ‘intellectuals’ for whom the sun rises in the west . . . suffice it to say that sovereign democracy is by no means a homegrown effort. On the contrary, it is a widely accepted concept recognized by” he claims, then United States Secretary of State Warren Christopher and European Commission President Romano Prodi. See: Surkov (2006). “Natsionalizatsiya budushchego” Politru.ru [published online in Russian 20 November 2006]. https://www.polit.ru/article/2006/11/20/nazional/. Last accessed 16 May 2018.

[16] Surkov (2007). “Russkaya politicheskaya kul’tura. Vzglyad iz utopii.” Russkiy Zhurnal [published online in Russian 15 June 2007]. https://www.russ.ru/pole/Russkaya-politicheskaya-kul-tura.-Vzglyad-iz-utopii. Last accessed 10 May 2018.

[17] Ibid.

[18] Viktor Surkov (2017), op cit.. “

[19] Leonid Ionin (2012). Politkorrektnost`: Divnyi Novyi Mir. (Moscow: Ad Marginem) 112. Dr. Ionin is a professor in the Department of Theoretical Economics of the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

[20] (2017). “How U.S.-Russia Diplomacy Went Heavy Metal.” Bloomberg [published online 9 November 2017]. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-09/how-u-s-russia-diplomacy-went-heavy-metal. Last accessed 9 May 2018.

[21] Surkov (2006). “Natsionalizatsiya budushchego,” op cit.

[22] Vladislav Surkov (2007). “Russkaya politicheskaya kul’tura. Vzglyad iz utopii.” Russkiy Zhurnal [published online in Russian 15 June 2007]. https://www.russ.ru/pole/Russkaya-politicheskaya-kul-tura.-Vzglyad-iz-utopii. Last accessed 10 May 2018.

[23] Alexander III reigned 1881-1894 and was Russia’s next-to-last monarch.

[24] Oxxxymiron (2012). Nevalyashka. The Russian transliteration reads, “blyad’, kogda uzhe zvezdy?! Naprolom, kak obychno, cherez burelom i kolyuchki lesov pogranichnykh”. See: https://рэп-текст.рф/tekst-pesni-oxxxymiron-nevalyashka/. Last accessed 16 May 2018.

[25] The Russian transliteration reads:

Nash tvorets to li khlopal ushami, to li tolkom ne sharil,

I my rodilis’ ne v tot vek,

V kholodnoy derzhave, ne na tom polusharii.

Pomnim kazhdoye slovo.

[26] Stanislav Varykhanov (2016). “Novaya stat’ya Vladislava Surkova vydala probely v znanii istorii Tsar’, ne ponyatnyy v Kremle.” Moskovskiy Komsomolets [published online in Russian 12 April 2018]. https://www.mk.ru/politics/2018/04/12/novaya-statya-vladislava-surkova-vydala-probely-v-znanii-istorii.html. Last accessed 8 May 2018. “The fleet and the army make the backbone of Russian statesmanship.” This statement by Mikhail Nenashev. Chairman of The All-Russia Movement for the Support of the Fleet, exemplifies Mr. Varykhanov’s point about Alexander III’s oft-quoted aphorism.

[27] Victor Tregubov (2018). “Odinochestvo polukrovki?” Petrimazepa [published online in Russian 11 April 2018]. https://petrimazepa.com/odinocestvo_polukrovki. Last accessed 8 May 2018. Peter and Mazepa (Petr i Mazepa) is a Ukrainian news agency that was established in March 2014 and registered in April 2018 (under Ukrainian law, all news agencies and representative offices of news based or operating in the country must register with the national government). According its founder, Alexander Noynets, the name “Peter and Mazepa” reflects its “editorial position that Peter exemplifies the right approach to European integration―to build Europe at home―and Mazepa exemplifies the wrong approach―to sellout to Europe. See: Anna Golubeva & Yegor Petrov (2014). “My ne stavim pered soboy zadachi adekvatno otsenit’ real’nost’. Sozdatel’ sayta «Petr i Mazepa» Aleksandr Noynets ob”yasnyayet, pochemu chitat’ yego ne stoit.” Colta [published online in Russian 24 May 2014.]. https://www.colta.ru/articles/media/3331. Last accessed 7 May 2018. The “Peter” in the news agency’s name is Tsar Peter I also known as Peter the Great. The “Mazepa” is Ivan Stepanovych Mazepa, who served (1687–1708) as the Hetman of Zaporizhian Host (Hetman Voyska Zaporozhskoho) or Cossack state of state. Mazepa deserted the Tsarist army to join its opponent, King Charles XII of Sweden, in the Battle of Poltava (June 1709) when he learned Peter intended to relieve him as acting Hetman. Already anathematized and excommunicated by the Metropolitan of Kiev of the Russian Orthodox Church, Mazepa fled with Charles and a small remnant of his army to modern day Moldova, where he died a few months later, in November 1709.

[28] Aleksandr Obolonskiy (2018). “Khimera osobogo puti.” In Dmitry Travin, Gennadiy Aksyonov & Viktor Sheynis (2018). Osobyy put’” strany. Mify i real’nost’, Aleksandr Obolensky, ed. (Moskva: Mysl) 20. The Russian transliteration of the original text reads: Tonkaya krasnaya liniya otdelyayet patriotizm ot ponachalu pochti nezametnogo pererozhdeniya yego v natsionalizm.

[29] Obolonskiy (2018), 26.

[30] Emil’ Abramovich Pain (2009). Rasputitsa. Polemicheskiye razmyshleniya o predopredelennosti puti Rossii (Moscow: Rosspen Seriya).

[31] Obolonskiy (2018), 34.

[32] LDPR is the party’s official name and an acronym of its previous name, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (Liberal’no-Demokraticheskaya Partiya Rossii).

[33] “Vladimir Zhirinovskiy otvetil Vladislavu Surkovu. Lider LDPR osparivayet idei, izlozhennyye v stat’ye «Odinochestvo polukrovki».” Parlamentskaya gazeta [published online in Russian 23 April 2018]. https://www.pnp.ru/politics/vladimir-zhirinovskiy-otvetil-vladislavu-surkovu.html. Last accessed 16 May 2018.

[34] Ibid.

[35] Ibid.

[36] It should be noted that Acting Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment regarding rumors of Mr. Surkov’s departure following a post-election government reshuffle. See: https://tass.com/politics/1004111. Last accessed 16 May 2018. Mr. Surkov had been representing the Russian government in the current “Minsk-2” round of Minsk accord talks.

‘Avengers: Infinity War’ And The Economics Of Infinity – OpEd

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By Jordan J. Ballor, PhD*

The latest Marvel blockbuster, Avengers: Infinity War, has opened to popular acclaim and record-breaking box office numbers. It is truly a spectacle, and one that expands the Marvel Cinematic Universe into uncharted territory. But amid the special effects and the glamor, the plot that drives the action is an old one, and no less compelling because of its antiquity. Thanos, the Mad Titan, pursues absolute power in the form of the Infinity Gauntlet, which houses six gems whose origins lie beyond the creation of the cosmos. Thanos initially pursues this power not for its own sake but rather out of a well-intentioned but deeply misguided sense of limits of economic growth. What we find in the course of the film, however, is that the single-minded pursuit of such a pure ideological agenda always requires sacrifice.

Thanos, the zero-sum economist

Thanos was born on the planet Titan, where he grew to see that the abundance of his civilization would inevitably lead to destruction. As he puts it, “It was beautiful. Titan was like most planets; too many mouths, not enough food to go around. And when we faced extinction, I offered a solution.” That solution was genocide, but with a Rawlsian twist: “At random. It would be fair, for rich and poor alike. They called me a madman. And what I predicted came to pass.”

These formative experiences drive Thanos to implement his solution on a cosmic scale. The logic runs like this: there is a finite amount of resources in the world (or the cosmos, in this telling), while the growth of the population is unlimited. At some point we will reach peak population, after which the abundance which had previously been enjoyed will be replaced by famine, privation, and eventually mass extinction. The only sustainable solution from Thanos’s perspective is to purge the universe of half of its population. This would rebalance the relationship between population and resources, setting things aright and allowing for those left alive to thrive and flourish.

And the only way to implement his solution on the scale it needs to be implemented is to have absolute power, so that with the snap of his fingers he might randomly eliminate half of the population of the entire cosmos. This is the vision that Thanos has pursued throughout his life, and the one that he explains to his young, adopted (after he orphaned her) daughter Gamora: “Little one, it’s a simple calculus. This universe is finite, its resources, finite… if life is left unchecked, life will cease to exist. It needs correcting.” This is Thanos’s neo-Malthusian vision, one expanded beyond the national or global scale, to all of existence itself.

From Malthus to Molech

The problems with this vision are manifold. It assumes that life is by nature “unchecked,” perhaps a commentary as much on Thanos’s perception as much as the reality. Nature itself provides boundaries, in the form of conscience and natural law as well as its inherent limitations and feedback loops. If a species extends itself too far, an evolutionary logic might argue, then it will experience the natural consequences, and perhaps extinction is what it deserves. In this sense Thanos possesses a more developed moral sensibility. His goal is actually to preserve life from the threat it presents to itself.

Thanos thus finds himself faced with a dilemma: he can not do what is required and watch all of life cease to exist (on his assumptions), or he can act and preserve half of the cosmos’s population. He can take upon himself the mantle of savior. Here we see the neo-Malthusian logic come to its necessary conclusion. Most often in these scenarios it is the future generations that are sacrificed for the apparent needs of those who are currently alive. This may be accomplished through abortion or forms of contraception and the accompanying formation of cultural values that de-center procreation as a social good.

This is why adherence to a Malthusian vision always ends with worship of Molech. Molech, the Ammonite god of fire and death, could only be appeased by offering the children of the people as a sacrifice, a practice condemned by the Old Testament (Lev. 18:21; 20:3-5). Typically such pagan sacrifices were made to deter the wrath of the god as well as to curry its favor. The hoped-for result was a bountiful harvest and blessings for those who were fortunate enough to survive.

This dynamic of pagan sacrifice closely mirrors Thanos’s vision. In the comics, Thanos literally worships a personified Death, which is why he pursues the complete eradication of life from the cosmos. In the cinematic version, Thanos pursues his pure agenda with religious zeal, only seeking to destroy half of those who are alive. But the basic framework is the same: His dogmatic adherence to the neo-Malthusian creed of limitation and extinction requires him to make a sacrifice, first of his own child and then of half of the entire cosmos.

A lack of imagination

Whether or not the neo-Malthusian vision is itself properly linked with its eponymous political economist, we can see why such an ideology makes for such a common and compelling motive for villainy, be it Agent Smith of the Matrix trilogy or Thanos in Infinity War. There is the appeal to some greater good, and the adamantine pursuit of this good despite the consequences, which in its own twisted way can be respected as a mark of character. As Thanos tells Gamora of his neo-Malthusian truth, “I’m the only one who knows that. At least I’m the only who has the will to act on it.”

One of the key flaws of Thanos’s ideology is its lack of imagination. As my son wondered upon reflecting on the film, when he achieved absolute power, why didn’t Thanos just create more resources? The power he claimed represents the opposite of the finitude and the limitations he seeks to overcome: infinity. Unless Thanos were to directly intervene to control the growth of population, simply eliminating half of the cosmos’s population would merely set the clock back and would not be itself a sustainable solution. Such a purge would need to be periodically implemented. So, if the number of people cannot be indefinitely checked, then the other part of the equation, the use and limits of needed resources, seems to be the natural factor to address.

And even if the absolute limits of natural resources could not be literally made to be infinite, neither does Thanos acknowledge the ability of people to adapt and innovate. We have shown a remarkable ability to survive in all kinds of environments and against all kinds of challenges. Life will out, we might say. But Thanos simply cannot imagine a future in which new ways of surviving and adapting to changed economic realities might come to be.

The economist Friedrich Hayek even asserted that it was the market’s ability to overcome the logic of the neo-Malthusian population bomb that was one of its key and compelling claims to a positive moral status. As Hayek put it in the opening of The Fatal Conceit, “our civilisation depends, not only for its origin but also for its preservation, on what can be precisely described only as the extended order of human cooperation.”

And so it is in the limits of his own imagination that Thanos realizes his greatest captivity. This is his conceit which results in the fatality of half of the cosmos. He cannot move beyond the flawed, zero-sum framework that arose from his earliest experiences. And he cannot envision a future that is truly open to new discoveries and new possibilities, to the discoveries that come from human interaction and ingenuity on the basis of what exists in the created order. In this Thanos is perhaps most clearly contrasted with the God of the Jewish and Christian scriptures, the God who is himself understood to be infinite and the source of all good blessings (fons omnium bonorum), whose sacrifice of himself was made that people “may have life, and have it to the full” (John 10:10). Infinity War thus presents us with a cautionary tale about the limits of our own imaginations and the righteous zeal in pursuit of a utopian ideology. I can’t wait to see what comes next.

About the author:
*Jordan J. Ballor (Dr. theol., University of Zurich; Ph.D., Calvin Theological Seminary) is a senior research fellow and director of publishing at the Acton Institute for the Study of Religion & Liberty. He is also a postdoctoral researcher in theology and economics at the VU University Amsterdam as part of the “What Good Markets Are Good For” project.

Source:
This article was published by the Acton Institute.

New EU Rules Target Single-Use Plastics To Reduce Marine Litter

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With the amount of harmful plastic litter in oceans and seas growing ever greater, the European Commission is proposing new EU-wide rules to target the 10 single-use plastic products most often found on Europe’s beaches and seas, as well as lost and abandoned fishing gear.

Together these constitute 70% of all marine litter items. The new rules are proportionate and tailored to get the best results. This means different measures will be applied to different products. Where alternatives are readily available and affordable, single-use plastic products will be banned from the market. For products without straight-forward alternatives, the focus is on limiting their use through a national reduction in consumption; design and labelling requirements and waste management/clean-up obligations for producers. Together, the new rules will put Europe ahead of the curve on an issue with global implications.

According to First Vice-President Frans Timmermans, responsible for sustainable development, “This Commission promised to be big on the big issues and leave the rest to Member States. Plastic waste is undeniably a big issue and Europeans need to act together to tackle this problem, because plastic waste ends up in our air, our soil, our oceans, and in our food. Today’s proposals will reduce single use plastics on our supermarket shelves through a range of measures. We will ban some of these items, and substitute them with cleaner alternatives so people can still use their favourite products.”

Vice-President Jyrki Katainen, responsible for jobs, growth, investment and competitiveness, added: “Plastic can be fantastic, but we need to use it more responsibly. Single use plastics are not a smart economic or environmental choice, and today’s proposals will help business and consumers to move towards sustainable alternatives. This is an opportunity for Europe to lead the way, creating products that the world will demand for decades to come, and extracting more economic value from our precious and limited resources. Our collection target for plastic bottles will also help to generate the necessary volumes for a thriving plastic recycling industry.”

Across the world, plastics make up 85% of marine litter. And plastics are even reaching people’s lungs and dinner tables, with micro-plastics in the air, water and food having an unknown impact on their health. Tackling the plastics problem is a must and it can bring new opportunities for innovation, competitiveness and job creation.

Companies will be given a competitive edge: having one set of rules for the whole EU market will create a springboard for European companies to develop economies of scale and be more competitive in the booming global marketplace for sustainable products. By setting up re-use systems (such as deposit refund schemes), companies can ensure a stable supply of high quality material. In other cases, the incentive to look for more sustainable solutions can give companies the technological lead over global competitors.

Different measures for different products

After addressing plastic bags in 2015, 72% of Europeans said they have cut down on their use of plastic bags (Eurobarometer). The EU is now turning its attention to the 10 single-use plastic products and fishing gear that together account for 70% of the marine litter in Europe. The new rules will introduce:

  • Plastic ban in certain products: Where alternatives are readily available and affordable, single-use plastic products will be banned from the market. The ban will apply to plastic cotton buds, cutlery, plates, straws, drink stirrers and sticks for balloons which will all have to be made exclusively from more sustainable materials instead. Single-use drinks containers made with plastic will only be allowed on the market if their caps and lids remain attached;
  • Consumption reduction targets: Member States will have to reduce the use of plastic food containers and drinks cups. They can do so by setting national reduction targets, making alternative products available at the point of sale, or ensuring that single-use plastic products cannot be provided free of charge;
  • Obligations for producers: Producers will help cover the costs of waste management and clean-up, as well as awareness raising measures for food containers, packets and wrappers (such as for crisps and sweets), drinks containers and cups, tobacco products with filters (such as cigarette butts), wet wipes, balloons, and lightweight plastic bags. The industry will also be given incentives to develop less polluting alternatives for these products;
  • Collection targets: Member States will be obliged to collect 90% of single-use plastic drinks bottles by 2025, for example through deposit refund schemes;
  • Labelling Requirements: Certain products will require a clear and standardised labelling which indicates how waste should be disposed, the negative environmental impact of the product, and the presence of plastics in the products. This will apply to sanitary towels, wet wipes and balloons;
  • Awareness-raising measures: Member States will be obliged to raise consumers’ awareness about the negative impact of littering of single-use plastics and fishing gear as well as about the available re-use systems and waste management options for all these products.

For fishing gear, which accounts for 27% of all beach litter, the Commission aims to complete the existing policy framework with producer responsibility schemes for fishing gear containing plastic. Producers of plastic fishing gear will be required to cover the costs of waste collection from port reception facilities and its transport and treatment. They will also cover the costs of awareness-raising measures.

The Commission’s proposals will now go to the European Parliament and Council for adoption. The Commission urges the other institutions to treat this as a priority file, and to deliver tangible results for Europeans before the elections in May 2019.

To mark the World Environment Day on 5 June, the Commission will also launch an EU-wide awareness-raising campaign to put the spotlight on consumer choice and highlight individual people’s role in combatting plastic pollution and marine litter.

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