Islamists have grossly used Western freedom and they must understand that this is not allowed anymore. The integration of moderate Islam in the European social fabric is an urgent necessity today more than ever before and the same is true of the rest of the Western world, writes Dr. Mohamed Chtatou.

The fearful Islamic State has been duly defeated by a Western-Islamic coalition through a combination of aerial pinpoint bombardment and a land offensive undertaken successfully by the Iraqi army beefed up by Kurdish, Iranian and Western forces.

As a result, the cities controlled by this infamous State were re-conquered and its militias killed, imprisoned or have merely disappeared in the thin air.

However, the question is: is this enough to crush Islamic fundamentalism that aims to adopt a time-old Caliphate system and engage in spreading Islamic religion through a combination of gentle persuasion , jihad in dar al-Kufr (Infidels’ homeland)i and terrorist actions both at home and abroad?

So, what is presaging the downfall of this religious ideology? Surely military defeat alone is not the only reason of the setback.

Actually there are a number of other reasons given here below.

Strong American Determination To Bash Violent Religious Extremism

It might be a fact that the American administration has flirted gently with Islamism, at some point during the presidency of Barack Obama, thinking, maybe, that if the Islamists were allowed to assume power democratically they could, ultimately, be won over by democratic ideals and give up, consequently, violent extremism.

Thus, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) arrived to power in Turkey in 2007 and later on in 2012 their mirror image PJD in Morocco.

According to a study undertaken by the RAND institution entitled “The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey,” AKP did not flaunt an extreme ideology, at any time,:ii

“While the AKP has Islamist roots, it is fundamentally different from its predecessors—the National Salvation, Welfare, and Virtue parties—in terms of its ideology, its political goals, its market-oriented economic program, and the broader range of the electorate to which it appeals. Despite its origins, the AKP government has not pursued an overt Islamist agenda (although critics accuse it of seeking to infiltrate Islamists into the civil bureaucracy and condoning Islamization at the local level). The AKP government has given priority to pursuing Turkey’s European Union (EU) membership, economic stabilization, and reform of the legal system over divisive symbolic issues such as the Islamic headscarf controversy. Secularists, however, worry about “creeping Islamization.””

However, this did not stop Daesh from taking power and control of swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria and committing despicable terrorist acts worldwide, reminiscent of the dark ages of humanity, in the name of the establishment of the time-old khilafah (Caliphate.)

On the Caliphate of the Islamic State, Code Bunzel writes in an analysis paper entitled: “From Paper State to Caliphate: The Ideology of the Islamic State” published by Brookings Institution (The Brookings Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World): iii

“If jihadism were to be placed on a political spectrum, al-Qaeda would be its left and the Islamic State its right. In principle, both groups adhere to Salafi theology and exemplify the increasingly Salafi character of the jihadi movement. But the Islamic State does so with greater severity. In contrast with al-Qaeda, it is absolutely uncompromising on doctrinal matters, prioritizing the promotion of an unforgiving strain of Salafi thought.

The Islamic State’s adoption of this acutely severe version of Jihadi-Salafism is attributable to Abu hadis, including those in al-Qaeda, have espoused “defensive jihad,” casting their militant acts as defensive in nature. They perceive the Middle East to be under attack by secular “apostate” rulers and their Western “crusader” backers. The Islamic State also advocates for “defensive jihad.” As former Islamic State leader Abu ‘Umar al-Baghdadi once observed, “The rulers of Muslim lands are traitors, unbelievers, sinners, liars, deceivers, and criminals.” What is more, he said in 2007, “[we believe that] fighting them is of greater necessity than fighting the occupying crusader.””

All in all, it must be pointed out that the moderate Islamists, if any, have no influence whatsoever on the hardliners. Worse, the latter may have used the moderates maliciously to beautify their despicable actions of terror and slaughter.

During his electoral campaign in 2016, Trump announced his disposition to fight violent Islamism and make America safer again, however his approach sounded too harsh and stereotypical and was criticized left and right. Once elected, one of his first presidential directives was the Muslim Ban,iv preventing citizens of some Muslim countries from entering America.

The American Civil Liberties Union –ACLU- viewed this ban as a discriminatory act with tremendous effect on Muslims and in this regard, Amrit Cheng, Communications Strategist writes:v

“This ban tears at the heart of Muslim communities in the United States, reminding them daily that the president openly discriminates against their faith and has instituted policies that embody this prejudice and bigotry. It will separate Muslims in the United States from their family members abroad. It takes away the ability of U.S. citizens and green card holders to live with, or even be visited by, spouses, parents, children, grandparents, and other family members. Among other things, it will exclude friends and family from weddings, graduations, and funerals; prevent grandparents, uncles, and aunts from holding and caring for newborns; deny final visits to ailing relatives; deprive American audiences and scholars of the ability to hear from and collaborate with individuals from the banned countries; and bar talented, promising young people from U.S. universities and companies. The impact of this discriminatory ban is tremendous.”

But probably Trump’s most important decision was putting pressure on the Gulf States to stop supporting or harboring Islamism and, as a result, Qatar was quarantined by its fellow GCC sister countries and, also, the unexpected advent of the political and social revolution in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, undertaken by the hyperactive Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS).

Alongside, Trump has borne tremendous pressure on MBS to drop, gently but surely, Wahhabism that incites religious fundamentalism around the globe through a multitude of associations by generously using petrodollars to create Wahhabi chapters in many Muslim countries and spread extreme Islamist ideology.vi

The Unhoped For Revolution Of Mohammad Bin Salaman

Back in the 18th century a religious leader by the name of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab (1703-1792) and the leader of a strong tribe of the Sauds Muhammad ibn Saud who reigned from  1726 to 1765, a deal was reached to rule the country, whereby the Sauds would take control of politics and Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab of fundamental Islam known as Wahhabism,vii a developed form of tribal Islam that finds its origins not in the Salafi Islamic religion only but, also, in pre-Islamic patriarchy traditions. In this practice, women are kept under tight control and away from the public sphere. It must be pointed out that prior to the advent of Islam, Quraish and other tribes of Felix Arabia used to bury female babies alive (wad al-banat) to avoid shame, however Islam disallowed this pagan tradition, but was unable to shake off misogynist sentiments in the region.

Wahhabism has been variously described by Muslim and non Muslim religious experts as “ultraconservative”, “austere”, “fundamentalist”, or “puritan(ical)”; as an Islamic “reform movement” to restore “pure monotheistic worship” (tawhid) by devotees; and, also, as a “deviant sectarian movement”, “vile sect” and a distortion of Islam by its opponents.

For more than two centuries, Wahhabism has been Saudi Arabia’s dominant faith. It is an austere form of Islam that insists on a literal interpretation of the Koran and is against ijtihad (jurisprudence). Strict Wahhabis believe that all those who do not practice their form of Islam are heathens and enemies.

Unable to lead the social revolution himself, King Salman delegated this hard task to his young son MBS, full of vigor and youth and educated in the West. But the problem is that there is so much rot in the country and one would not know where to start: corruption, nepotism, gender inequality, religious extremism, etc., not to forget of course that the reactionary forces could at any time gang up to stall any reform by silent opposition or literally assassination. Indeed, MBS has not appeared in public since April 21, 2018 and rumors were circulating in the internet stating that he has been killed in a military coup – an claim roundly denied by the Monarchy and government.

MBS skillfully opted for the bulldozing effect to destabilize opponents and dark forces. He started liberating women from male dominance: allowing them to drive and watch football matches in stadiums. Then, he moved on to tackle corruption among the princes and the elite who have always considered it as a birth right and not a felony or an economic crime. He rounded up all the “filthy rich” of the kingdom and “imprisoned” them in the deluxe Ritz Carleton Hotel and exacted from them large sums of money that went to the treasury.

The ultimate aim of MBS is to obliterate Wahhabism and return the country to moderate Islam this would dry up the sources of financing of fundamentalism worldwide, by ricochet.

In this regard, the famous journalist Thomas L. Friedman wrote in an opinion piece entitled: “Saudi Arabai’s Arab Spring, at last: The crown prince has big plans for his society,” in the New York Times on November 23, 2018viii

“Unlike the other Arab Springs — all of which emerged bottom up and failed miserably, except in Tunisia — this one is led from the top down by the country’s 32-year-old crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and, if it succeeds, it will not only change the character of Saudi Arabia but the tone and tenor of Islam across the globe. Only a fool would predict its success — but only a fool would not root for it.”

Stifle European Islamism

Since the 1950s thousands of workers were brought from North Africa, Sub-Sahara and Turkey to rebuild Europe with American money (Marshall Plan, 1948).ix Later on the Europeans allowed them to bring their families to enhance their productivity and stimulate their interest in work. Children were born to these first generation migrants. On reaching school age they were schooled, but due to the lack of parental follow up they dropped out and became first petty thieves, later on peddlers and finally joined organized crime. As a result of their acts Europeans looked down on them and considered them as social misfits. When the migrants’ children visited their countries of origins they were considered Europeans because they did not speak the local language and, consequently, they felt not belonging anywhere, in the end.x

These kids, sick at heart, felt country less and without a definite identity and these are the two personality psychological ailments the master Islamist recruiters used to approach them. And, as such, brainwashed them into believing that they were chosen by God for a mission to fight the European infidels and establish the supreme glory of Islam, an act for which they would be rewarded with paradise (Jennah) and its many virgins (houris). As an initial act of trust and reward they were given large sums of money by the recruiters, to build confidence and strengthen their hold on them. For months they were formed in fundamentalist Islamic religion precepts to strengthen in them the belief that dying for God is the best of ends one can ever hope for.

The Islamic State found in these young people the ideal cannon fodder for its religious war in Europe against the New Crusaders (Salibiyun al-judud) and means to carry out its violent agenda outside of the Muslim world. In many cases contact was established through the Internet and even the ideological training was undertaken through the very Internet and then they sent to die and cause mayhem. Of course the true sponsors always remain in the dark and unknown.

Probably the last terrorist action of Trèbes and Carcassonne in the Aude region in France that caused the death of four people is the last gasps of the dying infamous Islamic State. It is a pretty minimal action claimed hurriedly by this terrorist organization just to say it is still around. Logically speaking it seems more like the work of a long wolf than that of an established organization. Anyway, since the coordinated international onslaught on the territory of ISIS and its consequent defeat, only lone wolves committed terrorist acts in total despair, such as ramming vehicles into pedestrians to cause maximum casualties or attacking civilians or military at knife point.

All in all, the European concerted effort to wipe out Islamist terrorists with the help of North African countries like Morocco is paying off. Terrorism cannot be, of course, totally eradicated, but terrorists will have a hard time operating like they used to do in the past and this, slowly but surely, will lead to the demise of violent Islamism, in the long run.

De-Radicalization

The Western world has to enact stringent laws for Islamist brainwashing which is very active in improvised prayer rooms where preaching is political and incendiary and, also, with unemployed and marginalized youth. Like in Morocco, prayer rooms have to go under the strict control of the state and Imams have to be trained and vetted prior to assuming their function. Their sermons have to be issued by a central state-controlled religious authority. Mosques and prayer rooms will be allowed to open only for prayer times and during some special religious functions.

Many countries, Muslim or non-Muslim, can learn from the Moroccan strict management of the religious field by vetting and training Imams and religious clerics with the mission to assist the population in religious affairs (murshidine – male, and murshidate -female) in moderate Islam philosophy and practice through the wasatiyya approach, in state-owned and operated institutions such as the Imam Academy in Rabat and a strict control of mosque and preaching and religious organizations and associations and their finance.xi

De-radicalization will have, also, to affect publications, meetings and all kind of gatherings and celebrations. The youth have to be watched closely and the European states must train them to get jobs to become fully active within society but, also, to strengthen their sense of identity and belonging.

The Islamists have grossly used Western freedom and they must understand that this is not allowed anymore. The integration of moderate Islam in the European social fabric is an urgent necessity today more than ever before and the same is true of the rest of the Western world. Only the recognition and activation of moderate Islam can help suffocate violent religious extremism

Will the West learn the lesson . Only time will show.

You can follow Professor Mohamed Chtatou on Twitter: @Ayurinu

Endnotes:
i. http://www.khilafah.com/clarifying-the-meaning-of-dar-al-kufr-a-dar-al-islam/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divisions_of_the_world_in_Islam

ii. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG726.pdf

iii. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-ideology-of-the-Islamic-State.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caliphate

iv. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13769

https://www.adl.org/education/resources/tools-and-strategies/what-is-the-muslim-ban

https://www.aclu.org/blog/immigrants-rights/muslim-ban-what-just-happened

v. https://www.aclu.org/blog/immigrants-rights/muslim-ban-what-just-happened

vi. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/02/12/america-should-get-behind-saudi-arabias-revolutionary-crown-prince/

vii. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/29/what-is-wahhabism-the-reactionary-branch-of-islam-said-to-be-the/

viii. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/23/opinion/saudi-prince-mbs-arab-spring.html

ix. http://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/marshall-plan

x. https://www.eurasiareview.com/19092017-radicalization-of-young-moroccans-of-european-diaspora-and-responsibility-of-europe-oped/

xi. https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2016/05/186729/mohammed-vi-imam-academy-another-success-story-in-faith-management-in-morocco/

A bite from a lancehead snake can be fatal. Species in the family, found throughout Central and South America, have venom that can disrupt blood clotting and cause hemorrhage, strokes and kidney failure.

Solange Serrano, a researcher at the Laboratory of Applied Toxicology at the Instituto Butantan in Sao Paulo, Brazil, studies the protein toxins in venom from these snakes. In a recent article in the journal Molecular & Cellular Proteomics, scientists from Serrano’s laboratory, in collaboration with researchers at the University of New Hampshire, report on the sweet side of snake venom toxins.

The researchers looked at glycans, a group of sugar molecules attached in a complex chain, often with many branches, that can be attached to proteins. According to Serrano, most proteins in lancehead venom are modified with glycans, which can affect the proteins’ folding, stability and binding. But very little is known about glycan structure in the snakes’ venom.

Serrano’s graduate student Debora Andrade-Silva visited the laboratory of glycomics expert Vernon Reinhold in New Hampshire to learn techniques for structural characterization of glycans. While there, Andrade-Silva and colleagues characterized the structure of 60 glycan chains in eight lancehead, or Bothrops, species’ venoms. The researchers isolated the glycans and analyzed them by mass spectrometry, breaking down each complex molecule into smaller, simpler ions. By piecing together the spectra of many such ions, it was possible to tell which sugars were present and how they were linked into tree-like glycan structures.

Lancehead venom contains nearly 100 milligrams of protein per milliliter of liquid. At this concentration, protein solutions tend to become very viscous or form gels. Analyzing the structures of glycans attached to the proteins, the researchers found that a disproportionate number were tipped with sialic acid, a sugar with a negative charge. “Glycans containing sialic acid may help in venom solubility and increase toxin half-life,” said Serrano. Sialic acid on a toxic enzyme may also bind to host proteins called siglecs, pulling the enzyme closer to target cells for greater effect; this has been observed in other types of venom.

While Serrano’s group conducts basic research on venom composition, the applications are very close to home. Another department of the Instituto Butantan produces most of the antivenom available in Brazil. Serrano said she hopes that basic research into venom toxins will help researchers develop improved treatments for envenomation.

“The antivenoms do a reasonable job, but they are not so good at neutralizing the local effects of snakebite,” including swelling, hemorrhage and necrosis, Serrano said. These effects can be severe enough that doctors must sometimes amputate bitten limbs. Better understanding how venom differs between snake species could improve the efficacy of antivenom treatment. Andrade-Silva and Serrano are now working to map the structures from the glycan inventory back onto the proteins they modify. Because some venom proteins have been repurposed as medicines, knowing more about how glycosylation helps each protein fold, hold its shape, and attach to binding partners may further have applications in biotechnology.

Investigations of the atmosphere by means of unmanned mini-airplanes can contribute significantly to the investigation of the causes of Arctic climate change, as they provide an insight into ground-level air layers that are not monitored by other measuring stations. This is the conclusion drawn by a German research team from current measurements that have just taken place on Spitsbergen. It was possible to observe the formation of new particles in the air, which can later evolve to clouds and have an influence on climate change. It is still not understood in detail why the Arctic is warming more than twice as strong as other regions of the earth. The measurement campaign on Spitsbergen, which will run until the end of May, was the first joint deployment of mini research aircraft developed in Germany in a polar region.

During the last years the Arctic has increasingly become a focus of climate research, due to the fact that the climate changes observed so far in the Arctic have a much stronger impact than in other regions. The reasons are complex interactions between atmosphere, sea ice and ocean – difficult to quantify and to describe in models. In order to improve the understanding of the specific processes and interactions, more measurements have to be done on site. Yet only a few continuously measuring stations and mobile measurements with ships and aircrafts are available as a database to provide the necessary parameters for analysis and modelling.

Scientists from the Technical University of Braunschweig, the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research Leipzig and the Eberhard-Karls University of Tübingen have been performing measurements with unmanned flight systems since mid-April in Ny-Ålesund on Spitsbergen, the northernmost village in the world. This project is supported by the Alfred Wegener Institute, the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research which also operates the French-German research base AWIPEV in Ny-Ålesund.

In the project, funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and entitled “Investigations into the small-scale vertical and horizontal variability of the atmospheric boundary layer aerosol with unmanned aerial systems”, the correlation between small-scale air turbulence and the formation of the smallest airborne aerosol particles that can form from gases is investigated in particular. Since these small particles can grow and then scatter light and also influence the formation of clouds, they play a major role in the climate.

The first evaluations show different scenarios leading to the formation of new particles in the atmosphere: either the new formation takes place simultaneously in all investigated air layers between ground and 850 meters height or it begins in a certain air layer and continues from there. The second case cannot be observed from the initial with the fixed measuring stations in Ny-Ålesund and the nearby Zeppelin Mountain, which have been in continuous operation for many years, and is therefore an important finding for all the scientists involved.

“The measurements with unmanned aeroplanes represent a connection between the measurements at various sites in Ny-Ålesund and on the adjacent Zeppelin Mountain and thus close a knowledge gap on the distribution and transport processes in the atmosphere,” explains Dr. Astrid Lampert of the Technical University of Braunschweig, who coordinated the measurement campaign.

The measurement campaign was the third major study by ALADINA (Application of Light-weight Aircraft for Detecting IN-situ Aerosol), an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) of the type “Carolo P360”, which was developed at the Institute of Aerospace Systems at Braunschweig Technical University. ALADINA is a type of high-tech model aircraft: It has a wingspan of 3.6 metres, weighs 25 kilograms and can transport up to 3 kilograms of payload. The battery allows a flight time of up to 40 minutes and a speed of up to over 100 kilometres per hour.

The mini research aircraft has already been used several times in Germany – for example at the TROPOS measurement station Melpitz near Torgau. The special feature of this aircraft is especially its equipment with particle measuring devices, which were miniaturized at the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research in Leipzig. Since commercially available devices would be too large and heavy for this application, the devices needed to be developed or considerably modified internally.

The University of Tübingen also used MASC (Multi-purpose Airborne Sensor Carrier) UAS as part of its Spitsbergen campaign. These UAS are specialized in the high-resolution measurement of atmospheric turbulence and turbulent transport of energy and impulses. Turbulence is an important process in particle formation processes. MASC have a flight time of one and a half hours in the Arctic and are increasingly used in wind energy research in Germany.

In order to understand the various processes that can induce particle formation, now a detailed analysis of the measurement data is necessary, which will be the scientist’s main task for the next months.

By Katharina R. Lestari

A senior Indonesian government official has appealed to an influential Catholic organization to help foster national unity, amid what he said were growing threats to the country’s secular constitution and philosophy by extremist groups.

Addressing a May 30 gathering to mark the 60th anniversary of the Association of Indonesian Catholic Intellectuals (ISKA), Moeldoko, the presidential chief of staff, said radical groups were trying to destroy the very foundations the country was built on.

He was speaking about Indonesia’s 1945 constitution and its national philosophy, Pancasila, that promotes secularism and the principle of unity through diversity.

“What is happening scares me. I have just read [an] article about a young girl who became radicalized by learning about extreme Islamic teachings from the internet,” Moeldoko, who like many Indonesians only goes by one name, told the gathering in Jakarta.

He was referring to 18-year-old Dita Siska Millenia, arrested on May 12 near a police detention center in Depok, West Java, and scene of a deadly riot by terrorism suspects three days earlier.

The girl was allegedly planning to stab a policeman with scissors.

“I hope the ISKA, as an organization with a strong commitment to promoting national unity, can really become this nation’s pillar of strength to continue national development,” he said.

“I hope ISKA will get rid of the terms ‘majority’ and ‘minority.’ We need to think about how to build togetherness. National unity is the only thing which can make Indonesia a big country,” he said.

The ISKA is a member of Geneva-based Pax Romana ICMICA, a U.N. affiliated international association of Catholic organizations, groups and individuals primarily engaged in dialogue between the Christian faith and cultures.

As such it is heavily involved in the promotion of human rights and democracy, culture and education, social cohesion and eradication of poverty, and inter cultural and inter-religious dialogue.

ISKA chairman Vincentius Hargo Mandirahardjo said the organization has and always will be at the forefront in dealing with issues threatening national unity.

“We cannot stay silent when our nation is facing threats such as radicalism and fake news stoking religious sentiments. We are very concerned about this situation and will continue to be in the front line,” he said.

“We need to voice our commitment over and over again. If we don’t, then who else will?” he said, adding the government will have the organization’s full support in this regard.

Father Paulus Christian Siswantoko, executive secretary of the bishops’ Commission for Laity, said ISKA members have many thoughts and ideas they can share with others because of the influence and connections the organization has.

“It is hoped ISKA can really help people understand the current situation, to act wisely and to find solutions to issues such as radicalism and intolerance,” he said.

Indonesia’s National Counterterrorism Agency ran a survey last year and found that as many as 40 percent of students in 15 provinces in Indonesia were indicated as being of a radical mindset.

(RFE/RL) — Former Chief Justice Nasir-ul Mulk has been sworn in as the caretaker prime minister for an interim period of two months, after the Pakistani government completed its term for only the second time in the country’s history.

The country’s constitution provides for new parliamentary elections to be held within 60 days.

Mulk, who has a reputation as a defender of democratic institutions, will run the interim government pending results of the vote most likely to take place on July 25.

The next prime minister will be named by the party that wins a majority in parliament, or that is able to put together a majority coalition.

For nearly half of its 70-year existence, Pakistan has been under direct military rule. At least 15 heads of state were deposed before completing their tenure.

“Completion of this tenure is a success story for democracy in Pakistan,” the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party (PML-N) said in a statement before the parliament and government were dissolved at midnight on June 1.

Pakistan completed its first-ever democratic transfer of power following elections in 2013, when the Pakistan People’s Party handed over the power to the PML-N, following its landslide victory.

A meeting between leaders of the US and North Korea will take place in Singapore on June 12, US President Donald Trump confirmed after receiving a senior official from Pyongyang at the White House.

Kim Yong-chol is among the most senior officials in North Korea, a rank for which he was previously blacklisted by the US. He arrived in the US to deliver a letter from Kim Jong-un to Trump.

After the meeting in the Oval Office, Trump walked Kim and his delegation to their car, an honor usually reserved for a select few foreign dignitaries. He confirmed that the scheduled meeting, which had earlier appeared to be in jeopardy, will take place.

We’ll be meeting on June 12 in Singapore,” Trump said, adding that the talks with Pyongyang will take time. “I think it’ll be a process. I never said it goes in one meeting. It’s going to be a process, but the relationships are building… I think we’re going to have a positive result in the end.”

When asked about the content of the letter he received, Trump joked, asking how much money was offered for the information. He described the letter as “very nice… interesting” and refused to disclose its content. But eventually the president confessed that he hasn’t opened the envelope yet. “I may be in for a big surprise, folks,” he told the journalists.

He said the meeting with the senior North Korean official “went really well. It’s really ‘get to know you’ kind of a situation.” Trump praised the current level of relations between Washington and Pyongyang, saying that “I don’t even want to use the term maximum pressure anymore because we’re getting along.”

The fate of the much-anticipated summit on the Korean nuclear crisis seemed sealed a week ago, after Trump stunned the international community by saying that he’d cancelled the talks with Kim, due to some “tremendous anger and open hostility” in Pyongyang’s statements. The announcement came despite North Korea dismantling its Punggye-ri nuclear test site as an act of good will earlier that same day.

However, less than 24 hours later, the US leader hinted that the meeting may still take place, citing “very productive talks” with North Korea and its commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue. Shortly afterwards, American officials met with their counterparts from Pyongyang on the border between South and North Korea, in an attempt to resume preparations for the Trump-Kim summit.

The US sanctions on North Korea were among the issues discussed during the two-hour conversation, with the president saying: “I look forward to the day when I can take the sanctions off on North Korea.”

Human rights weren’t on the agenda, but Trump said that “we talked about ending the war” between North and South Korea; the countries still haven’t signed a peace treaty after the 1950-53 conflict. “That’s something that could come out … of the meeting” on June 12, he said.

Trump also spoke less critically than on Thursday about Russian diplomatic efforts with North Korea and the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Pyongyang. “I didn’t like it. But it could be very positive too… If it’s a positive meeting I love it – if it’s a negative meeting I’m not happy,” he said.

Independent political analyst Dan Glazebrook told RT that Trump may not actually be interested in seeking a diplomatic resolution, but is only looking for an excuse to employ tough measures. “It’s hard to envision a scenario, in which Kim Jong-un would be satisfied with any security guarantees that the US might offer in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons,” he said. Kim is likely to receive a proposal that he would have to refuse on June 12, which would prompt a reaction from Washington, Glazebrook added.

Steelhead trout, a member of the salmon family that live and grow in the Pacific Ocean, genetically adapted to the freshwater environment of Lake Michigan in less than 120 years.

Steelhead were intentionally introduced into Lake Michigan in the late 1800s in order to bolster recreational and commercial fisheries. In their native range, which extends from California to Russia, steelhead hatch in freshwater rivers, migrate to the ocean, and return to freshwater to spawn. This migration allows steelhead to feed in the ocean, where they can grow larger and produce more eggs than if they remained in freshwater streams for their entire lives.

The steelhead introduced into Lake Michigan continue to spawn in small freshwater tributaries and streams, but now treat the entirely freshwater habitat of the Great Lakes as a surrogate ocean. After their introduction into Lake Michigan, steelhead began to naturally reproduce and established self-sustaining populations throughout the Great Lakes. To examine how these fish adapted to this novel environment, a team led by Mark Christie, an assistant professor of biological sciences at Purdue University, sequenced the complete genomes of 264 fish. The team then compared steelhead from Lake Michigan to those from their ancestral range, searching for outlier regions associated with genetic adaptation.

The research, which was published in in the journal Molecular Ecology, found that regions of three chromosomes in steelhead evolved after they were introduced in Lake Michigan, offering insight into how this ocean-migrating fish adapted to an entirely freshwater environment.

Two of the three regions on chromosomes that experienced genetic changes are critical to the process that maintains salt and ion balance across membranes in the body, known as osmoregulation. Freshwater fish actively take in ions from their environments to compensate for salts lost via passive diffusion, while saltwater fish expel ions to compensate for the uptake of salts into their bodies. These changes to regions of chromosomes that affect how this process works help explain how steelhead have survived in an entirely freshwater environment.

The third region that changed is involved in metabolism and wound-healing. This adaptation might have allowed steelhead to take advantage of alternative prey or allocate additional resources to activity in their new environment, according to the study.

Alternatively, this region might have adapted as a response to a novel threat: parasitic sea lamprey. These parasitic creatures were unintentionally introduced to Lake Michigan in the 1930s. They latch onto fish like leeches and leave large wounds, often killing large numbers of the fish they prey on.

“If you think about having an open wound in saltwater versus freshwater, the effects are more severe in freshwater because cells can rupture at a faster rate. It makes sense that steelhead might want to counteract those effects more quickly or do it in different ways,” said Janna Willoughby, a postdoctoral researcher at Purdue and coauthor on the study. “Furthermore, parasitic lamprey occur in really high densities in the Great Lakes but rarely interact with steelhead in their native range – meaning that they may simply be a strong selective force.”

The study also found that genetic diversity was much lower in steelhead in the new environment than fish from their native range. This reduced genetic diversity, sometimes called a founder effect, is common when a new colony is started by only a few members of the original population.

“Even if you have a reduced population due to an introduction event or founder effect, populations still adapt to changing environmental conditions,” said Christie. “Figuring out which populations can adapt and why remains a pressing question, particularly in the face of climate change and other conservation issues.”

Researchers have devised a magnetic control system to make tiny DNA-based robots move on demand–and much faster than recently possible.

In the journal Nature Communications, Carlos Castro and Ratnasingham Sooryakumar and their colleagues from The Ohio State University report that the control system reduced the response time of prototype nano-robot components from several minutes to less than a second.

Not only does the discovery represent a significant improvement in speed, this work and one other recent study herald the first direct, real-time control of DNA-based molecular machines.

The discovery could one day enable nano-robots to manufacture objects – such as drug-delivery devices — as quickly and reliably as their full-size counterparts. Previously, researchers could only move DNA indirectly, by inducing chemical reactions to coax it to move certain ways, or introducing molecules that reconfigure the DNA by binding with it. Those processes take time.

“Imagine telling a robot in a factory to do something and having to wait five minutes for it to perform a single step of a task. That was the case with earlier methods for controlling DNA nano-machines,” said Castro, associate professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering.

“Real-time manipulation methods like our magnetic approach enable the possibility for scientists to interact with DNA nano-devices, and in turn interact with molecules and molecular systems that could be coupled to those nano-devices in real-time with direct visual feedback.”

In earlier work, Castro’s team used a technique called DNA origami to fold individual strands of DNA to form simple microscopic tools like rotors and hinges. They even built a “Trojan horse” out of DNA for delivering drugs to cancer cells.

For this new study, the researchers joined with Ratnasingham Sooryakumar, professor of physics. He previously developed microscopic magnetic “tweezers” for moving biological cells in biomedical applications such as gene therapy. The tweezers were actually made of groups of magnetic particles that moved in sync to nudge the cells where people wanted them to go.

Those magnetic particles, while invisible to the naked eye, were still many times bigger than one of Castro’s nano-machines, Sooryakumar explained.

“We had discovered a way to harness the power of magnetic forces to probe the microscopic world–a hidden world of astounding complexity,” he said. “But we wanted to transition from the micro-world to the nano-world. This led to the collaboration with Dr. Castro. The challenges were to shrink the functionality of our particles a thousand-fold, couple them to precise locations on the moving parts of the machines and incorporate fluorescent molecules as beacons to monitor the machines as they moved.”

For this study, the team built rods, rotors and hinges using DNA origami. Then they used stiff DNA levers to connect the nanoscopic components to miniature beads made from polystyrene impregnated with magnetic material. By adjusting a magnetic field, they found they could command the particles to swing components back and forth or rotate them. The components executed the instructed movements in less than a second.

For example, the nano-rotor was able to spin a full 360 degrees in about one second with continuously controlled motion driven by a rotating magnetic field. The nano-hinge was able to be closed or opened in 0.4 seconds, or held at a specific angle with a precision of 8 degrees.

These movements could have taken several minutes if executed with traditional methods, Castro said. He envisions that complex nano-materials or biomolecular complexes could one day be fabricated in DNA-based nano-factories that detect and respond to their local environment.

The study was long in coming: The researchers decided to merge Sooryakumar’s magnetic platform with Castro’s DNA devices years ago. “It took a lot of dedicated work from several students to realize that idea, and we are excited to continue building on that. This study demonstrates an exciting advance that was only possible with this inter-disciplinary collaboration.” Castro said.

Human Rights Watch issued two question and answer documents addressing key issues of pretrial incarceration in the US criminal justice system. The first document describes how the prevailing money bail system works, the harm it causes, and possible alternatives. The second explains in detail how the most commonly used of those alternatives, profile based risk assessment, operates and its potential to be as harmful as the money bail system it would replace.

“The question and answer documents argue that pretrial incarceration should be greatly reduced, and that profile based risk assessment is simply replacing one unfair system of incarceration with another,” said John Raphling, senior criminal justice researcher at Human Rights Watch and author of the documents. “The documents propose an approach to pretrial incarceration based on strictly limiting who is subject to detention and only allowing detention after fully litigated, individual hearings based on the evidence.”

Courts in the US hold people in jail while their cases are being decided by setting an amount of money that must be paid to secure release. While wealthy people can pay bail, the vast majority of those accused of crimes are faced with the choice of going into debt to raise the money, suffering in jail for months or even years before going to trial, or pleading guilty just to get out of jail sooner.

Judges and prosecutors often set bail knowing that pretrial incarceration will pressure defendants to plead guilty sooner, regardless of actual guilt. This system processes criminal cases more rapidly, but undermines US courts’ credibility and results in unjust outcomes for hundreds of thousands of people.

There is a growing movement to end the injustice of money bail. However, much of the reform effort is focused on replacing it with profile based risk assessment, a system of pretrial incarceration that relies on algorithms that purport to estimate the risk that the person will be re-arrested or miss a court date if released pretrial.

Critics of this system point out that it is unfair to jail people based on statistical estimates of their future behavior. The estimates derive from criminal history, which is greatly influenced by systemic racial bias in policing and in the courts. The risk assessment tools purport to give objective estimates of risk, but, in fact, are riddled with bias and can be freely adjusted by the same judges who use money bail to coerce guilty pleas, to use them for the same purpose.

“Ending money bail without addressing the power structure that drives pretrial incarceration will not achieve the goal of lowering pretrial incarceration rates, or reversing the harm of mass incarceration in the long run,” Raphling said. “True bail reform means rules that strictly limit the ability of judges and prosecutors to jail people pretrial and only allowing incarceration for those few proven to be a specific danger or flight risk if released.”

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said Friday it is appalled by a campaign of death threats against well-known anti-establishment TV journalist Ravish Kumar by trolls linked to the Hindu nationalist right, which has escalated dramatically in the past month, a year ahead of general elections.

RSF said it would seem from Ravish Kumar’s revelations last week that fear is now an integral part of the life of outspoken journalists in India. The NDTV anchor reported on 24 May that the threats he has been getting on his phone since 2015 have increased sharply in number and virulence since the end of April.

“It is all well organized and has political sanction,” he told The Hindu newspaper.

He said the latest threats included a video message from a former member of the military who said he would shoot Kumar in his office. A message from a person claiming to be a member of the Bajrang Dal, a right-wing Hindu nationalist youth group, included details of Kumar’s home address and the route he takes to go to work, and threatened to rape the women in his family as well as kill him.

The many complaints that Kumar has filed with the police in Ghaziabad and Greater Kailash, in the outskirts of New Delhi, have had no effect.

“Everything must be done to protect Ravish Kumar,” said Daniel Bastard, the head of RSF’s Asia-Pacific desk. “It is also high time that the Indian government took concrete measures to stop these waves of threats against journalists who dare to question the authorities. These insidious mass intimidation methods foster a noxious climate of self-censorship that undermines the foundations of Indian democracy. By supporting these actions, the ruling party bears a heavy responsibility in the decline in press freedom in India.”

“Republic of Fear”

The start of this wave of threats against Kumar coincided clearly with the publication of his book, The Free Voice, in which he describes the disturbing decline in the Indian media since Narendra Modi became prime minister in 2014.

He writes that the “new India” has become of “Republic of Fear” with the help of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s “IT cell” and its troll army. In the eyes of these BJP “goons,” as he calls them, any critical coverage of the government is anti-Modi, anti-Hindu and anti-national, and must be met with death threats.

This is exactly what happened to Rana Ayyub, a freelance woman journalist who was the target of an unprecedented harassment campaign in April. After RSF referred the case to Agnès Callamard, the UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, she and four other UN special rapporteurs issued a joint statement last week calling on the Indian authorities to protect Ayyub.

But so far nothing has been done, so RSF wrote today to Prime Minister Modi urging him to take the necessary action and to do everything to identify those responsible for this mass harassment.

Nightmare

Any kind of journalist can now be the target of hate and threat campaigns. Life for film critic Aparna Prasanthi in southern India became a nightmare after she panned Naa Peru Surya, Naa Illu India, a film released at the start of May that lauds nationalist feelings. Her Facebook account was flooded with rape and death threats after her review was published.

India is ranked 138th out of 180 countries in RSF’s 2018 World Press Freedom Index, two places lower than last year.

On Wednesday, Federal bank regulators proposed to allow Wall Street more freedom to make riskier bets with federally-insured bank deposits – such as the money in your checking and savings accounts.

The proposal waters down the so-called “Volcker Rule” (named after former Fed chair Paul Volcker, who proposed it). The Volcker Rule was part of the Dodd-Frank Act, passed after the near meltdown of Wall Street in 2008 in order to prevent future near meltdowns.

The Volcker Rule was itself a watered-down version of the 1930s Glass-Steagall Act, enacted in response to the Great Crash of 1929. Glass-Steagall forced banks to choose between being commercial banks, taking in regular deposits and lending them out, or being investment banks that traded on their own capital.

Glass-Steagall’s key principle was to keep risky assets away from insured deposits. It worked well for more than half century. Then Wall Street saw opportunities to make lots of money by betting on stocks, bonds, and derivatives (bets on bets) – and in 1999 persuaded Bill Clinton and a Republican congress to repeal it.

Nine years later, Wall Street had to be bailed out, and millions of Americans lost their savings, their jobs, and their homes.

Why didn’t America simply reinstate Glass-Steagall after the last financial crisis? Because too much money was at stake. Wall Street was intent on keeping the door open to making bets with commercial deposits. So instead of Glass-Steagall, we got the Volcker Rule – almost 300 pages of regulatory mumbo-jumbo, riddled with exemptions and loopholes.

Now those loopholes and exemptions are about to get even bigger, until they swallow up the Volcker Rule altogether. If the latest proposal goes through, we’ll be nearly back to where we were before the crash of 2008.

Why should banks ever be permitted to use peoples’ bank deposits – insured by the federal government – to place risky bets on the banks’ own behalf?  Bankers say the tougher regulatory standards put them at a disadvantage relative to their overseas competitors.

Baloney. Since the 2008 financial crisis, Europe has been more aggressive than the United States in clamping down on banks headquartered there. Britain is requiring its banks to have higher capital reserves than are so far contemplated in the United States.

The real reason Wall Street has spent huge sums trying to water down the Volcker Rule is that far vaster sums can be made if the Rule is out of the way. If you took the greed out of Wall Street all you’d have left is pavement.

As a result of consolidations brought on by the Wall Street bailout, the biggest banks today are bigger and have more clout than ever. They and their clients know with certainty they will be bailed out if they get into trouble, which gives them a financial advantage over smaller competitors whose capital doesn’t come with such a guarantee. So they’re becoming even more powerful.

The only answer is to break up the giant banks. The Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890 was designed not only to improve economic efficiency by reducing the market power of economic giants like the railroads and oil companies but also to prevent companies from becoming so large that their political power would undermine democracy.

The sad lesson of Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule is that Wall Street is too powerful to allow effective regulation of it. America should have learned that lesson in 2008 as the Street brought the rest of the economy – and much of the world – to its knees.

If Trump were a true populist on the side of the people rather than powerful financial interests, he’d lead the way, as did Teddy Roosevelt starting in 1901.

But Trump is a fake populist. After all, he appointed the bank regulators who are now again deregulating Wall Street. Trump would rather stir up public rage against foreigners than address the true abuses of power inside America.

So we may have to wait until we have a true progressive populist president. Or until Wall Street nearly implodes again – robbing millions more of their savings, jobs, and homes. And the public once again demands action.

Title IX — the U.S. civil rights law passed in 1972 that prohibits sex discrimination in federally funded education programs — has been widely recognized as a crucial step toward gender equality in America. A new Yale study tracks the changing use of Title IX over time in response to perceived gender disparities, and for the first time, systematically analyzes how the law has been mobilized at the federal level through complaints filed against four-year non-profit colleges and universities.

Published in the journal Social Problems, the study drew from a new data set that was constructed using information acquired through the Freedom of Information Act. The data include all resolved postsecondary Title IX complaints filed with the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) against allegedly noncompliant schools from 1994 to 2014.

“Since the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare first defined Title IX compliance requirements for intercollegiate athletics in 1975, this law has been under constant debate, which necessarily affects how it can be mobilized,” said Celene Reynolds, graduate student in the Department of Sociology and author of the paper.

“Title IX has been at the forefront of national debates in part because there was an effort to further specify and clarify its requirements under President Barack Obama as well as a growing social movement around campus sexual assault. Now we are in the midst of another moment of change under Betsy DeVos, [the U.S. secretary of education appointed by President Donald Trump],” said Reynolds.

“This study is important to the future of Title IX because there is an ongoing effort to change the way we put the law into action–with DeVos’s withdrawal of Obama-era guidance–but we don’t actually really know how it has been used,” she said.

Reynolds traced the use of Title IX since 1994 and found that Title IX has been mobilized in response to different issues over time. She also discovered that Title IX complaints have increased substantially over the past 15 years. “Complaints citing discrimination in academics were the most common type filed for nearly all of the last 20 years, while athletics complaints were the least commonly filed. Complaints alleging schools violated the law by mishandling sexual harassment began to rise in 2006, skyrocketing in 2009, and nearly equaling athletic and academic filings by 2014,” says Reynolds.

According to Reynolds, this new research fills an important gap in the sociological literature and illuminates a pressing social transformation affecting campus life across America. “This study shows how a powerful legal tool is employed in response to perceived gender inequality in higher education and illustrates the specific kinds of disparities that elicit legal mobilization.

The mobilization of Title IX is institutionally uneven relative to student enrollment, with the study’s findings showing that more complaints are filed against private schools that are highly selective,” said Reynolds.

“This article has significant policy implications in that it shows that certain types of schools tend to face higher numbers of specific kinds of complaints. The analysis suggests that the problem of sex discrimination in higher education may look different in different institutional settings,” said Reynolds. “It is important that top-down efforts to modify Title IX allow schools some autonomy to implement the law in ways that address the idiosyncrasies of local institutional cultures.”

Reynolds says the paper also shows how important this legal tool is for those who experience discrimination. “More people are turning to Title IX and to the OCR complaint process as tools to address sex discrimination in education. It’s important that this remains a viable and fair process.”

Scientists have discovered dunes on Pluto, and say they are likely to have been formed of methane ice grains released into its rarefied atmosphere.

Writing in Science, an international team of geographers, physicists and planetary scientists have analysed detailed images of the dwarf planet’s surface, captured in July 2015 by NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft.

Those images showed that on the boundary of the Sputnik Planitia ice plain, and pushed up against a major mountain range, there is a series of dunes spread across an area less than 75km across.

Following spatial analysis of the dunes and nearby wind streaks on the planet’s surface, as well as spectral and numerical modelling, scientists believe that sublimation (which converts solid nitrogen directly into a gas) results in sand-sized grains of methane being released into the environment.

These are then transported by Pluto’s moderate winds (which can reach between 30 and 40 kmh), with the border of the ice plain and mountain range providing the perfect location for such regular surface formations to appear.

The scientists also believe the undisturbed morphology of the dunes and their relationship with the underlying glacial ice suggests the features are likely to have been formed within the last 500,000 years, and possibly much more recently.

The research was led by scientists from the University of Plymouth (UK), University of Cologne (Germany) and Brigham Young University (USA).

Dr Matt Telfer, Lecturer in Physical Geography at the University of Plymouth is the paper’s lead author. He said: “We knew that every solar system body with an atmosphere and a solid rocky surface has dunes on it, but we didn’t know what we’d find on Pluto. It turns out that even though there is so little atmosphere, and the surface temperature is around -230?C, we still get dunes forming. The New Horizons data has given us a new level of detail, but we had to work hard to explain how it was possible to get the supply of sediment, a non-cohesive surface and wind you need for dunes. It is another piece of the jigsaw in making sense of this diverse and remote body, and gives us a more fundamental understanding of the geological processes which are influencing it.”

Dr Eric Parteli, Lecturer in Computational Geosciences at the University of Cologne, said: “On Earth, you need a certain strength of wind to release sand particles into the air, but winds that are 20% weaker are then sufficient to maintain transport. The considerably lower gravity of Pluto, and the extremely low atmospheric pressure, means the winds needed to maintain sediment transport can be a hundred times lower. The temperature gradients in the granular ice layer, caused by solar radiation, also play an important role in the onset of the saltation process. Put together, we have found that these combined processes can form dunes under normal, everyday wind conditions on Pluto.”

Dr Jani Radebaugh, Associate Professor in the Department of Geological Sciences at Brigham Young University, added: “When we first saw the New Horizons images, we thought instantly that these were dunes but it was really surprising because we know there is not much of an atmosphere. However despite being 30 times further away from the sun as the Earth, it turns out Pluto still has Earth-like characteristics. We have been focusing on what’s close to us, but there’s a wealth of information in the distant reaches of the solar system too.”

The researchers now plan to continue their investigations into the history of Pluto’s dunes through computer simulations, which will enable them to expand knowledge of the role wind has played in Pluto’s wider geology.

Lower than normal snowfalls last winter in the Pamirs and Hindukush mountains are leading to serious problems for Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Iran – including shortages of water for crops and consumption, refugee flows, “and even military actions,” according to Fergana news agency reporter Aleksandr Rybin.

Two weeks ago, Tajikistan President Emomali Rakhmon said that his country this year has only 20 to 25 percent of the water flow it normally does; and local people say that “they can’t remember a time when there was such dry weather that grain crops have been destroyed” (fergananews.com/news/29904 and fergananews.com/articles/9980).

In Uzbekistan, the drought has meant that rice yields this year are down by 40 percent. Tashkent tried to prevent a dramatic price rise by releasing reserves; but, Rybin reports, that has not been successful. Rice prices in May alone rose 16.7 percent. The situation in Afghanistan is even more dire. There two million people face hunger as a result of the drought.

Iran too is suffering from drought and for the same reason as Central Asia proper. Last winter was the driest on record over the last 50 years. Tehran says that 96 percent of Iranian territory is now suffering from drought. Water rationing has been introduced in rural areas, and extra police have been sent into the villages to maintain order.

A year ago, Rybin continues, the Fergana agency published a discussion about whether conflicts over water resources could lead to violence and war (fergananews.com/articles/9147). That article focused on the retreat of glaciers and the rapidly rising population: In the region, 10 of its 60 million people were born after 2000.

The Aral Sea has already died, and now Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan is drying up as well. That process has been accelerated both by the drought and by China’s decision to divert water for human use from the Ili River, a major feeder of the lake. Over the last four years, the water levels in the lake have fallen by four meters.

Experts say that the chance of armed conflicts over water are now increasing, the Fergana analyst says. Despite improved relations between Uzbekistan and its neighbors, the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan regarding water and food could lead to tens or even hundreds of thousands of refugees crossing international borders.

And that in turn could mean violence, especially as the receiving countries are in almost as bad shape in terms of water and food as Afghanistan now is. Another sign of just how bad things have become, Rybin says, is that a black market in water is emerging in many places, the kind of corruption that can feed violence as well.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid out his vision for an open, inclusive “Indo-Pacific region” in a keynote speech Friday during the opening of a high-level international security conference in Singapore.

Modi told the Shangri-La Dialogue meeting that Southeast Asia was central to this regional vision, which he said must be based on a “common, rules-based order” where all nations had the right to equal access to the sea and skies.

“Inclusiveness, openness and ASEAN centrality and unity, therefore, lie at the heart of the new Indo-Pacific,” Modi said, adding that his vision of the region was not limited to just those nations.

Modi’s speech came against the backdrop of tensions and security concerns within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc around China’s perceived territorial expansion into the disputed South China Sea, and as India – Asia’s second most populous nation next to China – competes with it for regional influence.

“This world is at a crossroad. There are temptations of the worst lessons of history. But, there is also a path of wisdom,” he said as he became the first Indian leader to give the keynote speech to open the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual meeting billed as Asia’s premier security summit and that draws defense ministers and top officials from at least 40 countries.

This year’s meeting, the 17th edition of the dialogue, goes for three days.

“It summons us to a higher purpose: to rise above a narrow view of our interests and recognize that each of us can serve our interests better when we work together as equals in the larger good of all nations. I am here to urge all to take that path,” Modi told the audience.

Positive elements

The Indian prime minister said the region was not defined by geography but by a series of positive elements.

First, “it stands for free, open, inclusive region which embraces us all in a common pursuit of progress and prosperity.”

Second, Southeast Asia and ASEAN are central to the future of an Indo-Pacific region, he said.

“That is the vision that will always guide India, as we seek to cooperate for an architecture for peace and security in this region,” he said.

Modi said the third element was the belief that common prosperity and security required evolution through dialogue to establish a common rules-based order for the region. Rules and norms must be based on consent, not on the power of a few nations.

“It also means that when nations make international commitments, they must uphold them. This is the foundation of India’s faith in multilateralism and regionalism; and, of our principled commitment to rule of law,” he said.

As a fourth element, Modi stressed that all nations should have equal access to the sea and skies. And this would require freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce and peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law.

“Solutions cannot be found behind walls of protection, but in embracing change,” Modi said.

He also warned against nations returning to the age of great rivalries for power.

“I have said this before: Asia of rivalry will hold us all back. Asia of cooperation will shape this century,” he said. “So, each nation must ask itself: Are its choices building a more united world, or forcing new divisions? It is a responsibility that both existing and rising powers have.”

By working together, he said, nations will be able to meet the real challenges of today.

“We will be able to ensure non-proliferation. We will be able to secure our people from terrorism and cyber threats,” he said.

Other relationships

Modi discussed India’s efforts to strengthen its military and to build on regional partnerships with ASEAN and other nations to push for peace and security while offering humanitarian and disaster relief. He specifically noted India’s military relations with Singapore, Vietnam and Japan.

Modi also addressed India’s relationship with the United States, Russia and China.

He talked about his informal summit in Russia 10 days ago, where he and President Vladimir Putin shared views on the need for a strong world order for dealing with today’s challenges.

Modi praised his nation’s global strategic partnership with the U.S. that continues to deepen, he said.

“An important pillar of this relationship is our shared vision for an open, stable, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region,” he said.

As for China, Modi said no other country “has as many layers as our relations with China.”

“We have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border,” he said, even as China pushes a major expansion program in Southeast and South Asia.

China is moving forward with its Belt and Road Initiative, a geopolitical strategy to build a vast network of ports, railways and roads that would connect China to the region. Political analysts said the massive infrastructure initiative involved a long-term strategy for economic expansion that would also lead to a quiet encirclement of India, China’s main rival in South Asia.

“I firmly believe that, Asia and the world will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and confidence, sensitive to each other’s interests,” Modi said.

Indonesia visit

The Indian prime minister arrived in Singapore following visits to Indonesia and Malaysia. Modi came to Singapore after a brief stop in Kuala Lumpur, where he meet with Mahathir Mohamad, the 92-year-old prime minister of Malaysia’s newly elected government.

“I have just paid my first visit to Indonesia, India’s neighbor, 90 nautical miles close and not 90 nautical miles apart,” he said.

The visit to Jakarta led to an agreement to strengthen defense ties including the development of a strategic naval port in Sabang at the mouth of the Malacca Strait, one of the busiest shipping channels in the world.

Modi, a Hindu, and Indonesia President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, a Muslim, discussed the importance of interfaith dialogue to create peace while promoting democracy and human rights. They agreed to hold interfaith dialogues in each country in the coming year.

“My friend President Widodo and I upgraded India-Indonesia relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Among other shared interests, we have a common vision for maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” he said.

By Martin Vladimirov*

“Belene is a totally corrupt deal and a failed project.”

These were the words of Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov in an interview with the popular Bulgarian station BTV back in 2014, when his second term in office was just starting.

He was referring to the Belene nuclear power plant project, on which construction had begun back in the 1980s, then was restarted in 2004.

The restart of construction has since cost Bulgarian taxpayers a little over 1.5 billion euros. But nothing has actually been built in the last decade bar the delivery of two 1060-MW VER-1000 reactors by the Russian state-owned Atomstroyexport following a three-year court arbitration process.

The arbitrators ruled in late 2016 that Bulgaria had to pay the Russian company 628 million euros for the reactors that were ordered through several contracts between the state-owned Bulgarian power supplier, NEK, and the Russian nuclear construction company, but were not paid for after the project was halted again in 2012.

Now Borissov’s third cabinet is gearing up to revive the Belene project after tabling a motion in parliament to lift the 2012 moratorium on the plant’s construction.

Meanwhile, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, who won the 2016 elections while vocally supporting a warming of relations with Russia and a renewal of Russian-led energy projects, was in Moscow on May 21 talking up a restart of Belene and potentially reviving the cancelled Russia-Bulgaria gas pipeline project, South Stream, which he dubbed ‘Bulgarian Stream’.

Prime minister Borissov also visited Moscow on Wednesday and met Russian President Vladimir Putin to talk about energy matters. Although their conversation did not appear to deliver anything new, Putin reiterated his interest in participating in large-scale projects with Bulgaria, including Belene.

“The Russian side is ready to return to the idea of implementing the project for the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant, of course, if the Bulgarian leadership takes the appropriate decision,” the Russian leader told reporters after the meeting.

On the potential revival of South Stream, Putin said that Russia is “ready for the new route”. He also said that the potential passage of TurkStream II through Bulgaria has been discussed with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

However the fear is that, like so many times in the past with such projects, Bulgaria seems to be entering another unvirtuous cycle in which Bulgarian nuclear energy policy is driven not by the public interest but by that of the Russian state and local businesspeople.

The freezing of the Belene nuclear power plant project in 2012 and the cancellation of the South Stream pipeline at the end of 2014 put a temporary halt to the expensive Russian economic influence on Bulgaria.

But it did not stop the oligarchic networks behind these projects in both Russia and Bulgaria that have worked together in the past to penetrate or capture strategic sectors of the Bulgarian economy including energy, telecommunications, banking and construction.

Evidence suggests that Russia has been able to leverage its role as the main energy supplier to manipulate state-owned companies, public institutions, and influential members of Bulgaria’s economic and political elites to its own benefit.

As the Kremlin Playbook report by the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed in 2016, Russian entities have controlled on average close to a fifth of the revenue flows of the Bulgarian economy over the last decade, either directly or via local proxies.

This makes Bulgaria the most vulnerable country in Central and Eastern Europe to Russian meddling.

To amplify its economic influence, Russia has deployed a range of soft power instruments such as political party support and media propaganda, and has sought to exploit governance deficits and the lack of strong institutional memory to exert geopolitical pressure to attain its strategic goals in south-east Europe.

Belene and South Stream have been vivid examples of how Russia tries to lock countries in the region into inflated mega-projects through long-term debt-financed deals that do not make much economic sense.

Take Belene – not only would the completion of the power plant cost another 10.5 billion euros, but it would also generate losses for the first three decades of its existence.

CSD estimates that at the current cost structure, the Belene plant would break even only at wholesale electricity prices of more than 80 euros/MWh compared to the current regional levels of between 35 to 40 euros/MWh.

Based on data and modelling used by the European Commission, a 2017 study by CSD and some of the most experienced energy research institutes in Europe revealed that Belene would not be financially sustainable even in 2050 when power prices in south-east Europe are expected to reach around 74 euros/MWh.

An interesting result from the modelling exercise points out that with the expected growth of renewable energy in the electricity system driven by EU decarbonisation policies, by the 2040s even the existing nuclear power plant in Bulgaria, Kozloduy, might become underutilised by around 10 per cent.

Belene’s levelised cost of electricity – the unit-cost of electricity over the lifetime of the generation facility – is projected to be at least three times the current production costs of the Kozloduy plant, so a new nuclear capacity could potentially remain severely underutilised in all scenarios, leading to stranded assets with enormous fiscal and environmental implications.

Economically and socially, the plant could lead to an abrupt end to Bulgaria’s local coal energy industry, as the construction of a new large-scale base-load power-generating capacity would allow the closing of the coal-fired power plants without a significant change in the structure of the electricity supply. This would also mean the lay-off of more than 12,000 workers engaged directly or indirectly in the coal industry.

On top of that, there is the significant financial risk, which will be shouldered by the Bulgarian government.

In theory, the government has pledged that the Belene plant would be constructed only under a market-based framework, in which a strategic private investor would fully finance the construction, while the state would not participate except with providing the two reactors that have already been delivered.

Without a pledge for a long-term power purchase agreement, it seems unlikely that any private company would decide to invest in a project which would have to sell electricity at prices that are twice as high as the current ones on the regional market.

This was also the conclusion of the leaked version of a project feasibility study commissioned to the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences by the state-owned Bulgarian Energy Holding, the principal owner of the project.

However, heavy pressure from vested interests led to a change in the study’s final conclusion. The new conclusion implied that Bulgaria could restart the project under a Paks II financial framework, in which Rosatom provides 80 per cent debt financing, while the state participates with a 20 per cent stake in the form of the reactors themselves.

In practice, Bulgarian taxpayers would have to bear the brunt of the project’s costs by paying back the Russian loan once it turns out that the plant cannot generate the profits to do that on its own.

Meanwhile, Russia would be able to leverage the financial arrangement to pressure future governments on the country’s strategic foreign policy direction or continue feeding local vested interests to prop up Russian state or private interests.

Part of the explanation for the strong influence of Russian interests on the country has been Bulgaria’s structural oil, gas and nuclear dependencies, which have deepened due to a rigid infrastructure, inflexible contractual obligations and an isolated and segmented regional market.

This has been most visible in the natural gas market, where Gazprom enjoys the power of monopoly pricing. In the past decade, Bulgaria has paid on average between 20 per cent and 30 per cent more than Germany for its Russian gas supply.

Gazprom has successfully crippled the liberalisation of regional gas trading through its transit contract with the Bulgarian state-owned transmission company and has sought to stop or at the very least delay any alternative gas infrastructure project to provide security or diversity of supply.

In the most extreme case, according to the former interior minister, Tsvetan Tsvetanov, Russian interests were behind the organisation of street protests against shale gas exploration on Bulgarian territory.

As with Belene, Russia exploited governance deficits to promote the construction of the South Stream gas pipeline, whose price tag of over four billion euros (for the Bulgarian section alone) would have made it three times more expensive per kilometre than pipelines of a similar size in Germany.

Thanks to the EU’s opposition to the project, and in particular to its non-transparent public procurement procedures, as well as the growing rift between Russia and the EU after Crimea, Russia gave up on South Stream in December 2014.

Yet the Bulgarian government has stubbornly clung to the idea of getting through a large-scale Russian gas pipeline through Bulgarian territory.

The reincarnation of the project began as soon as 2015 with the launching of the Balkan Gas Hub concept, which according to the current Bulgarian government’s plans will serve as a trading point for Russian (via a South Stream-light pipeline through the Black Sea), Azeri and LNG gas (via TAP and the Greece-Bulgaria interconnector), as well as potential domestic production from Black Sea offshore reserves.

The Balkan Gas Hub however envisages itself aligning with EU regulations, which makes it an unlikely choice for Russia.

Most of the hub project involves the modernisation of existing gas infrastructure and the construction of a new pipeline along the same route as South Stream.

Bulgaria seems to be either trying to invest in a new version of the South Stream project or to convince the Russian company to propel Turkish Stream II on to a Bulgarian course instead of the original idea of linking it to Greece and via an expanded TAP pipeline to Italy.

In this scenario, Bulgarian thinking is driven by fear – on the one hand that the end of its transit contract with Ukraine from 2019 will take away vital transit fee revenue from the gas transmission system operator, and on the other, with more sinister motives, it is being heavily lobbied by pro-Russian economic and political groups in the country that have been working for decades to preserve the Gazprom monopoly in Bulgaria.

In both cases, Russia has masterfully shown that large-scale infrastructure projects can both serve as carrots and sticks with the ultimate aim of extracting rents for Russian and local elites, solidifying Russia’s energy market dominance and achieving political leverage.

Even if these strategic energy projects are not completed, their zombie life has and will cost the country considerable resources, while at the same time, they will increase the risk of political instability and accelerate the country’s further drift from the EU’s core.

Picking off EU member states one by one in an attempt to sow disunity ultimately seems to be Russia’s strategic objective.

*Martin Vladimirov is an analyst at the Sofia-Based Center for the Study of Democracy. His work at the Center focuses on an analysis of the energy security in Europe and on the Balkans, macroeconomic competitiveness, political risk, alternative energy technologies and stability of financial markets. He holds an International Affairs degree from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, where he specialised in energy resources and the environment.

The opinions expressed in the Comment section are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.

A novel and potentially unrivalled meta-analysis of global food production cycles and their environmental impacts around the world may serve as a critical resource for policymakers, food producers and consumers alike, helping reveal data-supported opportunities to reduce food’s impact on the environment.

More than 570 million farms produce crops in almost all the world’s climates and soils, causing the degradation of ecosystems, the depletion of water resources and exacerbation of climate change. It’s challenging to find mitigation tactics that are effective for all producers; one only needs to enter a grocery store to recognize the sheer diversity of products, behind each of which there are a plethora of producers and manufacturing methods.

Joseph Poore and Thomas Nemecek analyzed 570 studies of life cycle assessment (which tracks environmental impacts associated with all the stages of a product’s life) that represent over 38,000 farms and 1,600 processors, packaging types and retailors in 123 countries. They quantified an unprecedented number of environmental impacts – greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), land use, water use, ocean acidification and eutrophication – of 40 different food products.

They found that environmental impacts substantially varied among and within different products and producers, and that some products disproportionally skewed impact more than others. Importantly, the dataset also revealed potential trade-offs of impact-reducing efforts (for example, for already low-emission Northern European barley farms, reducing land use would actually increase GHG emissions per kilogram of grain).

Navigating around these trade-offs, the researchers identified viable mitigation strategies, recommending that: producers monitor their impacts, choose from multiple practices that fit best with their locale and communicate impacts up the supply chain; policymakers incentivize environmental targets for producers; and consumers make informed dietary choices

There are two top favourites for this year’s FIFA World Cup in Russia – Brazil with a 16.6 percent probability of winning the title, closely followed by defending world champion Germany with 15.8 percent.

“The most likely final with a probability of 5.5 percent is also a match between these two teams, giving Brazil the chance to make up for the dramatic semi-final of 2014,” said Prof. Achim Zeileis from the Department of Statistics at the University of Innsbruck.

However, if it comes to this final, it is completely open how it will turn out: Brazil’s probability of winning the final against Germany is just 50.6 percent.

Achim Zeileis, together with colleagues from the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Vienna), has been calculating the winning probabilities for all teams in major football tournaments for several years, based on the so-called bookmakers’ consensus model. The research team uses the odds of 26 online betting providers (bookmakers and betting exchanges), which, combined with complex statistical models, allow a simulation of all possible game variants and results.

Favourites and the host’s chances

The model allows the simulation of probabilities for the final game, as the statisticians repeatedly play through the entire tournament millions of times, from the group phase to quarter-final and semi-final matches until the final – playing through every conceivable match pairing. Behind the two top favourites Germany and Brazil there are two other teams with very good chances: Spain (12.5 percent) and France (12.1 percent).

The most likely semi-final pairings are therefore Brazil vs. France (9.4 percent) and Germany vs. Spain (9.2 percent), with Brazil and Germany somewhat more likely to be the winners. The bookmakers’ odds see the host country Russia as the twelfth-best team overall: The probability that Russia will reach the quarter-finals is still 28.9 percent, but this probability is reduced to 2.1 percent for winning the tournament.

Bookmakers’ odds

“Naturally, the bookmakers want to earn money with their betting offers, and hence they set their odds as realistically as possible, taking into account not only historical data but also the tournament draw and short-term events such as injured players,” said Achim Zeileis.

This forms a very solid basis for the model designed by him, Dr. Christoph Leitner and Prof. Kurt Hornik (both WU Vienna). Before they can use the data for their forecast, the scientists adjust the quoted bookmakers’ odds for profit margins (so-called “overrounds”). The odds then give each team a basic probability of winning; starting there, the statisticians can determine how likely it is that a particular team will play and win against another team. Combined with the bookmakers’ expectations, the pairwise winning probabilities can be incorporated into a calculation model that can be used to simulate any possible game variant on the computer.

“Our model has the advantage in that it directly estimates the overall winning probability for each team while also implying ‘survival’ probabilities over the course of the tournament,” said Zeileis. “However, we are far from a 100 percent certain forecast,” he added.

For example, the most likely forecast for the EURO 2016 was that host nation France would beat Germany in the semi-finals and then go on to win the final.

“If Gignac had scored the goal in added time against Portugal rather than just hitting the post, our forecast would have been just right,” said Achim Zeileis.

But things turned out differently and Portugal won in extra time. This illustrates that small things can often make the decisive difference in football, which is why predictions with high probabilities cannot be made.

“It is in the very nature of predictions that they can be wrong, otherwise football tournaments would be very boring. We only deliver probabilities and not certainties,” said Achim Zeileis.

Consumer prices may be more volatile than are represented in current inflation indexes, which are used to guide a range of economic decisions, including guidance on interest rates and Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, according to a team of economists.

In a series of studies, researchers examined how housing rents are assessed in official price indexes, such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index, or CPI, and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s index for personal consumption expenditure, or PCE, which are both designed to show price moves based on the prices of a collection of consumer goods. The rent information the bureaus collect may lead to errors in the inflation rates, said Jiro Yoshida, associate professor, the Penn State Smeal College of Business.

Both the CPI and PCE use results from questionnaires that are sent out to existing tenants to gather information about the housing rents, according to the researchers. Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics sends these questionnaires to the same people over time, they usually collect information on renewal rents, which tend to be less volatile than new rents, according to the researchers. Landlords do not always raise rents on existing tenants, but are more willing to change rents for new tenants, they added.

“Landlords tend to increase rents when tenants change. The official rent surveys, then, tend to miss that big change,” said Yoshida, who worked with Brent W. Ambrose, Smeal Professor of Risk Management and director of the Institute for Real Estate Studies, Penn State and N. Edward Coulson, professor emeritus of economics, Penn State and professor of economics and director of Research, Center for Real Estate, University of California, Irvine.

Rents make up an important part of the inflation indexes. In 2016, the housing component — or shelter price — accounted for a third of the CPI and 42 percent of the core CPI, which excludes food and energy. In the PCE, rents account for 15.8 percent of all items and 17.7 percent of the core items.

The researchers, who released their findings online in the Journal of Macroeconomics and in a working paper on the Social Science Research Network, created a new method for estimating inflation in housing rents using data such as Moody’s/RCA Commercial Property Price Index, or CPPI. This data set includes new and existing leases.

Based on their revised estimates, the researchers suggest that the official inflation rate was overestimated by 1.7 percent to 4.2 percent annually during the Great Recession and is underestimated by 0.3 percent to 0.9 percent annually during the current expansionary period.

These estimation errors could cause significant problems with contracts, public policy programs, asset prices, as well as corporate and consumer decisions, according to the researchers.

“What we find is that by looking closely at one of the most important items in the consumption basket, which is housing, we have a much better idea about how price levels are changing in the economy,” said Yoshida. “The CPI is used in labor contracts, Social Security payments, and almost every economic statistics, so the implication is large.”

For example, because cost-of-living adjustments are based on CPI, the cost-of-living adjustment under the researcher’s method would be about 6.3 percent higher. For a 70-year-old senior who retired in 2016, the new calculation would have added about $167 to his or her monthly benefit.

Yoshida said that the lack of volatility in those indexes gave the researchers their first clue to the source of the problem with inflation indexes.

“What we found was that housing rents are a little bit weird from our perspective in the official Bureau of Labor Statistics data,” said Yoshida. “The housing rents in those indexes are really smooth and they are growing all the time, even during the financial crisis. And we were not completely comfortable with that.”

The researchers plan to offer a version of their inflation rate index that will be updated regularly to offer an alternative look at the current economy.